These teams have a recent history of going over the total with only one of the past seven meetings falling under the total. I see that trend holding up here.

The Ravens aren't going to have an offensive explosion against the Patriots like they did against the Dolphins this past Sunday. That was just Joe Flacco's third multi-touchdown passing game of the season. He's a below average quarterback in my view and isn't helped by any special skill position talent especially at running back. 
New England has an underrated defense ranking third in fewest points allowed at 17.2 and ninth in fewest yards given up per game. 
Baltimore has the No. 1 run defense. The Patriots have had to scale back their once diverse offense because of Rob Gronkowski being out. Their wide receiver group is down reliable possession receiver Danny Amendola, too. Tom Brady hasn't been 100 percent hobbled by a sore knee.

It's hard not to like the over in this game thanks to the Penguins. Sidney Crosby is leading the NHL in goals and Pittsburgh has scored 28 goals in winnings its last five games. Arizona is the third-worst defensive team in the league and gives up the most shots on goal. The Coyotes have permitted an average of 39.1 shots on goal during their last eight games. 

Knowing they weren't going to beat the Clippers on the road last night, the Pelicans did the smart thing. They rested big man Anthony Davis. Davis should be in for a monster performance against the guard-oriented Suns. New Orleans isn't going to lack for motivation not only looking to put a halt to a losing skid but gain revenge for a 112-111 home overtime loss suffered to Phoenix last month. That may have been the Pelicans' toughest defeat of the season.  While New Orleans is playing without rest, the Suns are in action for the fourth time in six days. Phoenix is 3-6 at home and has failed to cover four of its past five games at home. The Suns have been favored four times this season. Not only have they failed to cover each time, but they were blown out in each instance losing to the Kings by 19 points, Nets by 18, 76ers by 15 and Nuggets by six.  

The Vikings are the fresher team having played last Thursday and have playoff incentive something the Jaguars lack.

Minnesota gives up the third-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points. The Jaguars are averaging just 17.5 points per contest during their last eight games. Minnesota yields just 17.4 points per game. 

This is one game where you should have a good idea of where the turnovers are going to fall. The Vikings are No. 2 in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. The Jaguars are last at minus 18. 

Blake Bortles has more pick-sixs than wins during his three-year NFL career. 

The Blackhawks have stepped up their game after a slow beginning, while the Rangers have cooled off going .500 in their past 10 games.  The Rangers managed to pull a road upset win against Winnipeg last night despite injuries to key goal scorers Rick Nash and Jimmy Vesey. New York is 0-5 the past five times following a victory. The Blackhawks are 5-1 when playing on two days rest.  Chicago backup goalie Scott Darling has played well in relief of Corey Crawford, who is out after undergoing an appendectomy. The Rangers are going with backup goalie Antti Raanta. 

The Bucks are an underrated defensive team. They rank first in the league in both defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive field goal percentage.

Atlanta always has prided itself on defense under Mike Budenholzer. The Hawks hit a rough patch, but look back on track now after snapping a seven-game losing streak by beating the Heat, 103-95, two nights ago. 

The Hawks still have a top-12 defense, but their offense ranks 24th averaging 100.3 points per game. 

Dallas began a key stretch of playing 10 of its next 13 games at home. The homestand didn't open well, though, for the Stars as they lost 2-1 to the Flames on Tuesday. 

The Jets are getting healthier, while the Rangers are banged-up and not playing well just 4-5-1 since opening 13-4. 

The Blues have the best home record in the Western Conference at 11-1-3. They've won six of their last seven home games and draw the Canadiens concluding a five-game, 12-day road trip.

Brown takes this game much more serious than Providence. It's a very short trip - about one mile - so Brown will get fan support. Brown has covered 20 of the last 28 times going against foes with a winning home mark. The Bears are 6-1 ATS the last seven times taking 13 or more on the road. 

Brown has needed senior leadership, including point guard Tavon Blackmon who is playing at a high level. 

Providence just beat Rhode Island in its last game this past Saturday. That was a much bigger in-state game for the Friars. 

The Bulls are proven at home. The Trail Blazers have proven to struggle on the road. 
Chicago has covered five of its seven home games this season and seven of its last nine going back to last season. The Bulls knocked off the Cavaliers, 111-105, at home this past Friday. They then suffered a letdown when they played Saturday in Dallas losing 107-82. Dwayne Wade was rested in that game.
The Bulls and Wade should be ready now. If they lose this game they could be looking at a four-game losing streak as they play at the Pistons on Tuesday and host San Antonio Thursday. Chicago has covered the past five times following a straight-up loss. 
Portland is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine away matchups. The Trail Blazers' only road victories during this span came against the Mavericks, Nets and Grizzlies. Portland is 0-6 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
The teams played on Nov. 15 and the Bulls slammed the Trail Blazers, 113-88, in Portland. 

Buffalo is much more dangerous offensively since blossoming star Jack Eichel returned from an ankle injury three games ago. The Sabres scored a combined nine goals in Eichel's first two games back. They fired 35 shots in their last game, but were thwarted by Bruins hot goalie Tukka Rask in a 2-1 Saturday loss. Eichel has four points since returning, including three goals. 
Washington's scoring is down this season. The frustrated Capitals haven't won during their last three games. They still rank in the top 10 in shots, though, and are due for a breakout scoring game especially their leading goal scorer Alex Ovechkin. He's been held goal less for four games after netting a hat trick on Nov. 23. 

Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. 
The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. 
Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up.
Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. 
Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured. 

This is the lowest total on the Week 13 NFL betting board. So taking more than a field goal is huge even though it's with Jacksonville. 
The Jaguars are poorly coached and have injuries with Chris Ivory, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas all likely not to play.
But the Broncos are in worst shape offensively with a below par ground attack, mediocre offensive line and rookie Paxton Lynch forced to make a road start. Jacksonville has a very underrated secondary having not allowed more than 280 yards passing to any quarterback. The Broncos figure to be ultra-conservative with Lynch, which isn't a great ingredient to cover a spread as road chalk. 
Denver's defense has surrendered 83 points in its last three games. The Broncos' defense still is very good, but it's not as dominant as last season. Blake Bortles brings a huge mobility element. 
The Jaguars have come very close at home nearly upsetting Green Bay opening week, losing to the Ravens by two points, beating the Colts and falling to the Texans by three. Jacksonville could have won all of those games. The Jaguars' only bad home loss was to the 9-2 Raiders. 
Given the Broncos' limited resources offensively, the Jaguars should be in for another close call at home. 

Thanks to Colin Kaepernick the 49ers have shown much improvement during the last three weeks playing the Cardinals, Patriots and Dolphins all tough. Now San Francisco steps way down in class.
Kaepernick has accounted for multiple touchdowns in his last four games. He's a dual threat maybe the best running quarterback in the NFL right now. The Bears are littered with injuries and suspensions everywhere, including inside linebackers minus Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. That makes Chicago extremely vulnerable to the 49ers' read-option offense. 
The Bears aren't going to be able to keep up with the 49ers because of multiple injuries to key offensive linemen and skill position players. Matt Barkley will be making just his second pro start. He's missing several of his best offensive linemen and is throwing to backup receivers, who dropped numerous passes last week. The Bears' two best pass catchers are Alshon Jeffery, who is suspended, and tight end Zach Miller, who's out for the season. 
Home-field doesn't matter much when it's the Bears. Chicago has lost 13 of its last 16 at Solider Field going 5-11 ATS. 

Portland plays much better at home and holds a huge backcourt edge. The Trail Blazers are well rested, too, having been idle since Wednesday. They've been home since before Thanksgiving.

Miami is enduring its fourth game in six days. This is the Heat's third straight road game. They are off improbable road wins against the Nuggets and Jazz. The Heat have been doing this while short-handed being without Justice Winslow, Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters and Derrick Williams. 
Much credit to the Heat, but their win streak ends here. 

The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. 
Wyoming averages nine more points per game than San Diego State and the Aztecs' defense has vanished the last two weeks. 
Just two weeks ago, Wyoming nipped San Diego State, 34-33, in Laramie as 10-point 'dogs. The score shouldn't have been that close, but San Diego State returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and scored another touchdown on a Hail Mary pass. Wyoming outgained San Diego State by 97 yards and had 12 more first downs. Now the Aztecs have to return to Laramie where the temperature forecast is for the teens-to-low 20's. Not exactly San Diego beach weather. 
Wyoming has proven itself at home beating Northern Illinois, Air Force, Boise State along with San Diego State. The Cowboys were at least a touchdown 'dog in all of those games. 
After losing to Wyoming, San Diego State got buried by Colorado State, 63-31, at home last week. The Rams picked up 507 yards in that game. 
The Aztecs heavily rely on running back Donnell Pumphrey. But he's gotten worn down having carried the ball 305 times this season. Pumphrey hasn't run for more than 76 yards in each of the last two games. 
Wyoming has its own outstanding runner, Brian Hill, plus playmaking deep threat Tanner Gentry and quarterback Josh Allen. 

So far Washington hasn't been the scoring machine it was last season. But the Capitals' problems right now pale in comparison to Tampa Bay. The Lightning have lost five of six, including four straight games surrendering 19 goals during this losing streak. 
Washington's first line is playing well. The Lightning, by contrast, are without their star and captain injured Steven Stamkos. 
The Capitals are in angry mood after being shut out at home by the Islanders, 3-0, two nights ago. Washington holds a big goalie edge with Braden Holtby especially if Tampa Bay goes with Ben Bishop, who is 1-6-1 career-wise against the Capitals. 
Washington has outscored the Lightning by nine goals the past five times the teams have met, all of which have been Washington victories. 

Idaho's offense has come on. The Vandals have the necessary skill position players to get this total over. The over has cashed in 11 of Idaho's last 17 games.The Vandals also have a top place-kicker in Austin Rehkow. 
Georgia State has a better offense than defense. I can't see Georgia State's slowing down Idaho's ground attack and the total is low enough to get involved. 

Louisiana Monroe is very dangerous offensively at home. The Warhawks have gone over in their last three home contests averaging 37.6 points in those games. Opponents, though, have scored 35, 34 and 34 points against Monroe in those games.
Lafayette is going to get a heavy share of points here, too. Louisiana Monroe has one of the worst defenses in the country giving up nearly 40 points per game. 

Sparked by the return of dynamic young scorer Jack Eichel, Buffalo is playing some of its best hockey. The Sabres have won two in a row, scoring nine goals in those games. 
The Bruins would be 1-4-1 if not for a shootout victory against Carolina this past Thursday when they scored the tying goal during the final minute of regulation. 
Boston has scored more than two goals just once in its last six games. The Bruins are without injured defenseman and team captain Zdeno Chara and could be also without star center Patrice Bergeron, who missed Friday's practice. The early start time is not a plus either for the visiting Bruins. 

These are two slow-paced run-oriented teams. So why is the total so high for this American Athletic Conference title game? Oddsmaker can't help but over inflate the line after Navy's 75-31 win against SMU last week with the Midshipmen picking up 605 yards. That help pump Navy's scoring average to more than 41 points per game.
But the Midshipmen have taken advantage of a lot of bad defenses, including SMU. Now they're facing Temple, which gives up the third-fewest yards in the nation. A key for the Owls is experienced linebackers, a crucial element in slowing down Navy's option attack.
Temple lacks elite talent at the skill positions. Owls quarterback Phillip Walker has been picked off 12 times. However, the Owls have a solid ground attack that is more substance than style controlling the ball for more than 34 minutes per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. That keeps the ball away from Navy and is good for the under. These teams may put up touchdowns, but they are going to come following long drives that eat up clock. It's an added bonus if they have to settle for field goals.   
Temple played in last year's ACC championship game and held Houston, a team averaging 40 points, to 24 points in a 24-13 loss. Both teams finished with less than 400 yards of offense and the total went under by 15 1/2 points. 

Martin Jones is proving to be a big-time goalie for San Jose. He's having an excellent season. Montreal has the best goalie in the NHL in Carey Price, who unlike last season is healthy and putting up monster numbers leading the NHL in save percentage. Price has allowed just four goals in his last three starts. He should be strong for this matchup since the Canadiens have been idle since Tuesday.

So there are not going to be any cheap goals scored here, a key in going under 5. 
Montreal's scoring has been going down. The Canadiens are averaging just two goals per game during their last five games. Montreal is now averaging less than three goals per game for the first time this season. The Canadiens also do not have a good history in San Jose having lost the last nine times there. 
San Jose has scored two goals or fewer in six of its last nine games. The Sharks are 14-4-6 to the under in their last 24 home games. The under has cashed five of the last six times in this series. 

Denver has the rebounding to keep the Rockets from playing their up-tempo style. The Rockets are going to have dead legs, too, after last night's double overtime victory against the Warriors. That huge victory also puts the Rockets in a major letdown spot. This marks Houston's fifth game in eight days. 

The Nuggets are fired up and mad after getting upset at home by the shorthanded Heat in their last game. The Nuggets are healthier with the return of Danilo Gallinari and Will Barton. 

Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game.
Washington has the conference's top defense yielding just 17.8 points per game, a big edge in speed and skill position players with Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Jake Browning and a special teams advantage in both returns and place-kicking. 
The Huskies also have big-game experience, which Colorado lacks. Add this all up and the Huskies win by double-digits. 
Washington is the fresher team off consecutive blowout victories against Arizona State and Washington State. Colorado is off a tough physical 27-22 home win against Utah last week. The week before the Buffaloes came from trailing late in the third quarter to win against Washington State, 38-24. 
The Huskies have won their bowl game in three of the past four years. Their coach, Chris Peterson, has a history of big game having coached at Boise State. 
Colorado hasn't been on the national stage in years. The Buffaloes' last bowl appearance was nine years ago. Their coach, Mike MacIntyre, did a great job this season but he doesn't have Peterson's bowl and big game resume. 
Style points matter here, too, for the Huskies. They want a college football playoff berth so a big spread win would help that cause. The Huskies already have beaten nine opponents by at least 24 points. 

Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. 
Pacific has played the stronger competition and are coming off a road loss to Nevada. This sets up as a kill spot for the Tigers.
Sacramento State coach Brian Katz was quoted as saying this about the matchup: "We haven't played great yet. We think we will, but we haven't at this point. We know Pacific is really good, but I like our group in the long term. By league time, I think we'll be very competitive."
That sure doesn't sound like a coach confident of his team right now. 

Kudos to Miami for pulling off a road upset against the Nuggets on Wednesday. That was a gutty victory by the Heat, who were down three rotation players with Dion Waiters, Justice Winslow and Josh Richardson all injured. None are going to play today.
So it's asking too much for the Heat to stay competitive with the Jazz while playing for the third time in four days - all at different venues - and in back-to-back games both in high altitude. Miami has failed to cover six of the last seven times it has played without rest. 
On the surface, it seems this is a lot of points for Utah to still lay. But the Jazz are playing their best basketball winners of four in a row. The Jazz have won those four games by an average of 20 points with the smallest victory margin being nine points. 
Utah is 9-2 ATS the last 11 times when going against a foe that has a winning percentage below .400. The 6-12 Heat have only beaten one team, Memphis, that has a winning record. 
Hassan Whiteside is Miami's best player. But he's dealing with a sore knee. Utah's Rudy Gobbert, who has 11 double-doubles on the season and is shooting better than 63 percent from the floor, is one of the few big men who can neutralize Whiteside. 

It looked like Colorado was turning a corner when it posted road victories against the Wild and these same Blue Jackets entering their current homestand. 
However, the Avalanche has lost the first three games of their homestand and are in-the-circle-the-wagons mode here with just one home game left before going back on the road. I'm looking for a big game in goal from a rested Semyon Varlamov, who sat out the past two games. 
Colorado coach Jared Bednar knows Columbus well. He led Lake Erie, which is an affiliate of the Blue Jackets, to the AHL championship last season. I expect a solid game plan to be in place along with a strong sense of urgency. 
The Blue Jackets are playing well. But regression is due to hit. I find them to be overrated based on some of their lopsided victories that have padded their statistics. 

Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. 
Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. 
The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys. 

The Jets are playing well now that they're home and in payback mode for a 3-0 loss to the Oilers in the Heritage Classic outdoor game on Oct. 23. The Jets were minus forward Bryan Little and defenseman Jacob Trouba for that game. 
Little is back from injury and the Jets are riding a five-game home win streak. Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine are two of the top goal scorers in the league. Laine has scored 11 of his goals at home. 
Edmonton has managed only five goals in its last three games - all losses The Oilers have been home for their last two games and then go back home for two more following this game. 

St. Louis enters December having scored three or more goals in eight consecutive games. Tampa Bay has surrendered 14 goals in its last three games.
The Lightning could get a big defensive boost if Anton Stralman returns to their lineup after missing nine games. But that's not a given. Tampa Bay never has been an outstanding defensive team even when Stralman was healthy. The Lightning were aided by excellent goal tending, but that hasn't been the case this season especially with Ben Bishop. He's having a down season. 
The old saying a good offense makes for a better defense could be applied to the Lightning here. They haven't controlled the puck much recently. So expect a faster pace from them in an effort to aggressively attack and stop a three-game losing streak where the combined losing margin has been by a staggering nine goals. 

The Rangers are due for some regression. I see it happening here in this dangerous situational spot for New York. The Rangers just played two home games. They return home for a Saturday game. 
New York may have motivational problems for this matchup. The Sabres are a top 10 defensive team that usually doesn't beat themselves. The Sabres very well could dictate pace playing at home - and that pace is slow and not what the Rangers prefer. 
Rising young star Jack Eichel is back from injury. That's not only a much needed offensive weapon for the Sabres, but a spark, too. 

I want San Antonio going for me after the Spurs played their worst game of the season in a 95-83 home loss to the lowly Magic Tuesday night. That loss snapped a nine-game San Antonio win streak and can't make Gregg Popovich too happy. Neither can the fact that the Spurs had their lowest-scoring game of the season and committed a season-high 19 turnovers. 

I have to believe the Spurs are going to be highly motivated for this matchup. Dallas is the perfect patsy, too, with the worst record in the NBA at 3-13. The Mavericks' only victories have come against the Pelicans, Bucks and Lakers. None of those teams have a winning record. 
There is zero chance of the Spurs taking the Mavericks lightly either since Dallas hung with them in a 96-91 road loss on Nov. 21. The Mavericks missed a jumper with 15 seconds left in that game that would have given them the lead.  
The Spurs shouldn't feel fatigued since before last night they had been idle for two days. The Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Mavericks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times at home when hosting an opponent with a winning road mark. 
The Mavericks remain without injured Dirk Nowitzki. They are thin at point guard due to injuries and rank last in all of the major offensive categories - scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. San Antonio ranks sixth in fewest points allowed. 
Dallas plays at Charlotte on Thursday. The Mavericks stand a better chance of beating that opponent than San Antonio. So the Mavericks may play their bench longer if they fall too far behind in an effort to conserve energy for Thursday. 

Calgary is a league-worst 3-7 at home and returning home after a long trip. I understand this. But the flip side is getting, what I believe, is a bargain rate to back the home team here. The Flames are putting a lot of emphasis on protecting their home ice better - and it starts here the first of three consecutive games at home.
Toronto defeated the Oilers in Edmonton last night. Toronto is much improved from last season as its young talent starts to emerge. However, the Maple Leafs don't have the maturity yet to post back-to-back road victories without rest. Toronto has won just twice on the road. Prior to defeating the Oilers, the Maple Leafs were 1-9 on the road with that lone victory occurring versus Buffalo. They are 0-4 when playing in the second of back-to-back games. 
The Maple Leafs have had a great deal of difficulty winning at Calgary losing in nine of their last 10 visits. 

I want the now road-tested Jaguars off a double-digit loss in their last game. The Jaguars are better than Southern Mississippi and have proven themselves away from home beating UNLV. South Alabama also traveled to Europe during the summer and played four exhibition games. 

Southern Mississippi has played a very easy schedule. When the Golden Eagles stepped up they were hammered by LSU. They lack the size and bench to hang with South Alabama. 

The Grizzlies are facing life without Mike Conley. This is their first game since losing their leading scorer and assists leader to a back injury. Teams usually respond with a hard and motivated effort in their first game without their star player. That should be the case here.
Memphis is an experienced, prideful playoff team that has the third-best defense in the NBA. The Grizzlies allow seven fewer points per game than the Raptors. Toronto is good, but not elite. The price has become over inflated due to Conley's absence. 
Toronto just had a blowout home win against the 76ers. The Raptors host another bad team on Friday, the Lakers. So the Raptors can't be blamed for putting this matchup on cruise control as they enjoy what looks to be an easy week for them. 
Do note, though, that before blowing out the 76ers, the Raptors hadn't won a game by more than 13 points since opening night. 

I can't resist taking the Canadiens as an underdog to a Ducks team that is barely above .500. Montreal has the most wins and points in hockey. The Canadiens have won 20 of their last 28 games. 
The Canadiens are getting another MVP-like season from goalie Carey Price, who leads the NHL with 13 victories, is second with a .947 save percentage and is third in goals against average at 1.66. 
Price isn't the only Montreal player having a great season. Shea Weber is probably the best defenseman so far this season with a plus 18 rating. The Canadiens are getting big offensive seasons from Alex Galchenyuk and Alexander Radulov. 
Anaheim is 1-3 in its last four games and has only scored more than two goals once during this span. 

The timing isn't good here for Florida. The Panthers players are still in shock mode and are unhappy after popular coach Gerard Gallant was fired after leading the team to a franchise record for wins and points last season. 
This will be the Panthers' first game since Gallant was let go with general manager Tom Rowe taking over as coach. 
The Panthers haven't won at Chicago since 2009, a string of five consecutive defeats. The Panthers still are working through an overhauled roster and injuries. I don't see them being mentally up for this matchup against a Blackhawks squad that has been playing better winning 11 of their last 16. 
It's a nice plus for Chicago if Jonathan Toews is able to play. He's questionable having missed the past two games. Both of those contests were on the West Coast. The Blackhawks beat the Ducks, 3-2, and lost to the Kings, 2-1, in overtime during those games. 

This has been an under series, but current form trumps history here. The Devils have gone over in their last three games scoring 12 goals while giving up 13 goals. Part of this uptick in scoring is due to Mike Cammalleri returning from injury. The Devils have become more offensive-minded at the expense of defense during this span.

This is reflected in the Devils giving up an an average of 38.5 shots per game during their last four games. Even an outstanding goalie such as Cory Schneider can't keep the puck out of the net when peppered with that many shots. 

Winnipeg has some big time goal scorers and its offense has been far more effective at home where the Jets average better than three goals per game. 

Both Tampa Bay and Columbus rank in the top six in goals scored. The Blue Jackets are averaging 3.1 goals in their last eight games, while the Lightning have allowed 14 goals during their past four games. 

The teams just met this past Friday and Columbus won, 5-3. 
The Blue Jackets have better offensive depth this season and Tampa Bay is missing steady Anton Stralman, who has been out the past eight games suffering from an upper body injury. Without Stralman, the Lightning lack a No. 2 defenseman and their depth suffers. 
Ben Bishop is slated to get the start in goal for Tampa Bay. Bishop is the bigger name, but I think backup goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been more effective. He's 6-1 with a 1.50 GAA. 

These two teams are more about defense than offense. Detroit ranks No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game while the Hornets rank 11th.  
Charlotte just played its best defensive game of the year beating Memphis, 104-85, last night at Memphis. Now the Hornets have to return home. This marks their fourth game in five days. So don't expect a fast pace from Charlotte. 
The Pistons average just 93 points on the road, down four points from their season average. Their field goal shooting is worse on the road and their 3-point marksmanship on the road is the worst in the NBA. 
Detroit has fared very poorly on the road. The Pistons, though, have been idle the past two days. Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy wants to get his team turned around when playing on the road and he's doing it by stressing defense. The under has cashed 13 of the last 16 times Detroit has played on two days rest. 
There's the chance Pistons point guard Reggie Jackson makes his season debut here. If that's the case it would be a plus for the under. Jackson is a good player, but he figures to be rusty and there would be a transition period for his teammates, who are used now to journeyman and poor-shooting Ish Smith drawing the major point guard minutes. 

This isn't a fade on the Warriors. It's just my belief that there is some line value to the Hawks, who aren't used to getting this many points in a game.
The Hawks do play good defense and get good ball movement. However, they have cooled off after a 9-2 start and are off an embarrassing 109-94 road loss to the Lakers last night.The Hawks have a good coach and will want to redeem themselves off that bad defeat. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing without rest the past eight times.
Atlanta does carry a high fatigue rating, but the Warriors are playing for the third in four days and may be without Draymond Green again. He missed the Warriors' last game with a sprained ankle. 

Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. 
The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. 
Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. 
Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. 
Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers. 

I see a class difference here. Derrick Rose is still getting acclimated to his new team while Russell Westbrook has become the new Oscar Robertson averaging 31 points, 11 assists and 9.9 rebounds. 
Oklahoma City holds a strong rebounding edge along with Westbrook's overall dominance. 
The Knicks have won six in a row at home. However, those victories have come against the Nets, Pistons - a horrible road team - Mavericks, slumping Hawks, Trail Blazers - who were playing their fourth road game in six days - and Hornets in overtime. 
I don't see the Knicks stepping up here. 

Credit Jack Del Rio with doing a great job this season with the Raiders. Having said that, though, I believe the Raiders are very overrated. Yes, they are 8-2. But they've also been outgained on the season, have committed the most penalties in the league by far and are 1-3 ATS in games played in Oakland. 
The Panthers are showing signs of what made them last season's NFC champions. They have won three of their last four games holding all of these foes - including New Orleans and Arizona - to fewer than 21 points. 
Carolina has won straight-up the last four times it has been an underdog. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and have also failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've played a below .500 opponent. 
The Panthers' ground attack is due to pick up now that Jonathan Stewart is back in the lineup. The Raiders have yielded 100 yards rushing in all but three of their games. 
The timing isn't good either for the Raiders here. They just played Monday night in high, high altitude and dirty air in Mexico City having to go to the wire to beat Houston. Oakland's defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes in that victory. 

Tom Brady has been back for six games. He has a 16-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and because of him the Patriots have averaged 31.6 points per game in their last six games. That would rank No. 2 in the NFL if it were computed over the entire season. 
It's a plus if Rob Gronkowski is able to play this week. But even if he doesn't, Brady has more than enough weapons especially with Dion Lewis making his season debut last week. Lost in another brilliant Brady season is the great running of LeGarrette Blount. He's seventh in rushing and tied for the league lead in touchdowns. 
The Jets' defense has slipped especially cornerback Darrelle Revis. New York is 21st in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points per game. It's a given that New England is going to get its share of points. 
But can the Jets put up their share of points, too? 
I say they can. New England's defense is mediocre at best. The Jets averaged 24.5 points against New England in their two meetings last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 295.5 yards passing against the Patriots with five touchdowns last year. The Jets have the advantage of being idle last week giving them extra time to game plan. 
There should be no weather-related problems. The forecast is for a clear day with temperatures in the 40s and just a light wind. 

The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot.
Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. 
The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. 
Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. 
Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. 
About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. 
Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. 
Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games. 

You have to go back to the opening game of the 2012 season to find the last time Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than four points. Since then the Bengals have dominated this series winning the past five times. 
The Bengals have made the playoffs the past five years. That streak is in serious jeopardy if the Bengals lose this game. Cincinnati isn't as good as it has been the last few years. However, the Ravens are in down mode, too, better than last season but not nearly as good as their playoff team of two years ago. 
This is a key divisional showdown between two good defensive teams with mediocre quarterbacks so points are at a premium. I want this many points going for me here.
Both teams are averaging exactly 19.9 points per game. Andy Dalton is merely a game manager minus top wide receiver A.J. Green. But Joe Flacco is worse ranking 27th in the passer ratings. 
Much is made of the Bengals losing Green and running back Giovani Bernard to injuries in last week's 16-12 loss to Buffalo. But the Ravens have injuries, too, in their offensive line and at cornerback where Jimmy Smith, their top pass defender, is questionable after missing last week.
The Ravens are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. The Bengals have committed the seventh fewest penalties. The Ravens aren't good enough to lay this many points here against this prideful and playoff-experienced foe that has covered 15 of the last 22 times following a loss. 

Arizona is better than its 4-5-1 record. The Cardinals are in must-win mode and the pointspread has become inflated. 
David Johnson is a top-three running back and the Cardinals' defense gives up the fewest yards per game. The Cardinals get back key playmaking safety Tyrann Mathieu and have All-Pro cornerback to shadow Julio Jones. 
The Falcons don't generate much pass pressure and their offense is less effective when Jones can be handled in single coverage. Peterson is one of the few cornerbacks capable of handling Jones. 

This is a big revenge spot for the Jets, who lost 5-1 on the road to the Predators on Friday. The early start is a plus for the home team. 
The Jets had a rough road trip, but have won their last three home games defeating the Blackhawks, Kings and Stars by a combined margin of 15-4. 
By contrast, the Predators have been terrible on the road losing eight of 10 times. The Predators also have injuries as James Neal, their second-leading scorer, isn't expected to play after suffering an upper body injury in Friday's game. The Predators also aren't expected to have defenseman Ryan Ellis and center Colton Sissons. 

Yes we have two below offenses here. But these two teams also have below average defenses.
The Canucks carry a high fatigue rating playing for the third time on the road in four nights and without rest. Colorado has an injury to its first-string goalie Semyon Varlamov meaning Calvin Pickard will draw the start, He's one of the weaker backup goalies in the league. 
Vancouver gives up an average of three goals per game. The Canucks have scored at least three goals in four of their last six games. 
The Avalanche has scored three or more goals in four of their last five games. They also have surrendered 13 goals in their last four games.

Stanford's offense is coming on as the Cardinal is averaging 39.2 points in their last four games. Rice surrenders 37.2 points a game and ranks 123rd in total defense. The Owls give up 7.3 yards per play and won't be able to contain Stanford's star running back, Christian McCaffrey. 
Stanford's offensive revival started when Keller Chryst took over the starting quarterback job. He's thrown for 456 yards five touchdowns in the last two games. 
The Owls, though, are averaging more than 30 points during their last three games. Rice beat UTEP, 44-24, last week and did it with redshirt freshman quarterback Jackson Tyner replacing starter Tyler Stehling in the opening drive of the game after Stehling was hurt. Tyner will get the start here.
The Owls have gone over the total 69 percent of the time during their last 68 road games. 

No offense is hotter than Tennessee's. The Volunteers are averaging a staggering 55.6 points in their last three games. Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs has stepped up to account for 10 touchdowns during the last two weeks. Dobbs' 24 touchdown passes are the most in the SEC.
Vanderbilt can't match Dobbs' passing, but the Commodores have a solid ground attack rushing for an average of 313 yards during the past three weeks. Ralph Webb needs just 27 yards to become Vanderbilt's all-time leading rusher. Tennessee has a weak run defense ranking 117th in rush defense yielding an average of 237.9 yards on the ground. 

Toronto is much improved, but prone to too many mistakes to be in this price range against an elite opponent such as the Capitals. The Maple Leafs have lost three in a row after opening 6-2.

The Capitals have won four of their past five games. Washington did play last night defeating Buffalo, 3-1. However, the Capitals don't play again until Thursday so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. The Capitals beat the Sabres with their backup goalie. Braden Holtby will return to goal today. The Capitals are 2-0 when Holtby has been in the net for the second of back-to-back games beating Calgary on the road and Pittsburgh at home in those instances.
Toronto goalie Frederik Andersen is playing better lately but he's not close to Holtby's level. He'll have to contend with a hot Alex Ovechkin, who is averaging a goal per game during the last five games. Holtby is 6-1-1 lifetime versus Toronto with a 1.61 GAA and .948 save percentage. 
The Capitals know how to take care of business against lesser foes winning 46 of the past 61 times versus sub .500 opponents. They have defeated the Maple Leafs seven of the last eight times, including the past five. 

Both teams played last night each winning. But prior to last night, the Wizards hadn't played in three days. They are the fresher team. The Spurs are playing for the third time on the road in four days. There's always the possibility of Gregg Popovich resting key players as he's done periodically this season 
San Antonio expanded a lot energy in beating the Celtics last night. The Spurs have won eight in a row, but they aren't blowing anyone out. Of their last seven victories, six have been by six points or fewer. 
The teams meet again in six days in San Antonio. So the Spurs have no reason to pour it on leaving the back-door open should the Wizards fall behind late. 

I'd be surprised if UNLV attempted more than 18 passes in this game unless forced to throw. The Rebels are a running team with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Nevada Reno's offense is more balanced but facing a Rebel defense strong at linebacker and senior-laden in the secondary. 
Temperature-wise this game is fine, but gusty winds from 20-to-30 mph are forecast. 
UNLV is on its third quarterback, Kurt Palandech. He's far more of a runner than passer. The Rebels are down to all freshmen wide receives due to injuries. The Wolf Pack rank fifth in the nation in pass defense. They know the Rebels are primed to run the ball so they will stack the line not afraid to load the box. 
There were just 40 points scored in last year's UNLV-Reno game. In the three years since Brian Pollian has been Reno's coach, the Wolf Pack have held UNLV to 27 points or fewer. 

The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. 
Yes, Oregon fell off a cliff this season, their worst in two decades. But the Ducks still hold a major talent gap, are off a victory that shows they still can be dangerous are treating this matchup as their Super Bowl. 
I want all that going for me and this short spread is a path to involvement. 
Oregon State is having another crummy year at 3-8. That's to be expected. The Beavers are always a lower tier Pac-12 team. What's shocking is Oregon falling to 4-7. The Ducks, though, are coming off a 30-28 upset win of then-11th ranked Utah. 
That victory can't salvage a lost season for the Ducks, but it does give them confidence going into this traditional in-state rivalry matchup. 
Oregon's offense remains potent behind Justin Herbert. It's a big step down in defensive class that Oregon is used to seeing after facing Utah, Southern Cal and Stanford during its last three games. 
The road team has dominated this series going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. Oregon is 5-0 ATS the past five times playing at Oregon State. 

Kansas State can come close to covering this number on its own. The The Wildcats have a balanced offense with running backs Alex Barnes and Charles Jones along with Jesse Ertz helping Kansas State average more than 32 points a game. Kansas gives up 37.6 points per contest and ranks 111th in run defense. Look for the Wildcats to run all over the worn down Jayhawks. 
Kansas' offense has picked up, though, with redshirt freshman quarterback Carter Stanley starting the last two games. The Jayhawks have scored 24 points in each of their last two games. Stanley has a very good receiver in Steven Sims Jr., who has 67 receptions for seven touchdowns and 818 yards. 

It's worth noting, too, the over has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met. 

This is the first of a home-and-home series. I see the Coyotes getting good value here. 

The high flying Oilers are hot, but the Coyotes have owned this series winning 14 of the last 16, including nine of the past 10.

Edmonton is a bit fat and happy after rolling past Colorado, 6-3, two nights ago for its third consecutive victory. The Oilers could take the Coyotes, who have the worst record in the league, too lightly. That's dangerous for a road club. Arizona is capable of producing a home upset win. The Coyotes just upset San Jose two games ago. 
Mike Smith is expected to be in the nets for Arizona. He was terrible in his last start and is highly motivated to perform better. The veteran certainly is capable of elevating his play. 

My interest always is raised when I see the better team getting points. That's the case in this matchup. It's a series the Hawks have dominated beating the Jazz nine of the past 10 times. 
Both teams halted losing skids with big victories on Wednesday. The Jazz have back point guard George Hill, but aren't likely to have big man Derrick Favors. 
The Hawks average eight more points per game than the Jazz. Utah is the stingiest defensive team in the league, but the Hawks have a top-seven defense. Atlanta gets excellent ball movement ranking third in assists per game and in assists on made baskets percentage. 
A rejuvenated Dwight Howard provides the Hawks with the necessary inside presence to counter the physical Jazz. Howard ranks in the top-five in the NBA in rebounds, field goal percentage and is eighth in blocks. 
It's a huge NBA menu today with every team in action. This game has the second-lowest total. Points will be at a premium so getting this many is big. 

Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago.
Now the Falcons are more than a touchdown 'dog to Boise State. No, I'm not buying that. Air Force has defeated the Broncos each of the past two years winning 37-30 in Boise last season and 28-14 at home in 2014. 
Air Force is the fourth-leading rushing team in the country. The Falcons' offense has gotten better with the switch to sophomore quarterback Arion Worthman. Air Force has won four in a row averaging 38 points during this span. 
Boise State has failed to cover eight of 11 games. They are going to have problems with Air Force's triple-option attack especially down two injured starting linebackers. 

Gonzaga should have no problem breaking triple digits here. The Bulldogs are averaging more than 100 points this season and have tremendous front line scoring with 7-footers Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. The Bulldogs have scoring depth, too. Quinnipiac gives up an average of 90 points a game. 
Quinnipiac should contribute to the scoring with its balanced attack. Quinnipiac is playing at a faster tempo this year ranking 48th in pace compared 225th last year.

Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. 
The Vikings then got cold losing four in a row averaging 14 points a game during this span. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner bailed early this month and there were offensive line injuries. One of the Vikings' defeats during this time frame came to the Lions, 22-16, in overtime. The Vikings were playing their worst ball during this time yet the Lions were going to lose if not for a 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater at the end of regulation that forced overtime. 
Minnesota is playing better now having just defeated the Cardinals, 30-24, at home. The disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday is mitigated here by the short travel and the Vikings familiarity with the Lions, who they played less than three weeks ago. 
Neither team can run the ball. Matthew Stafford was hot early in the season, but has cooled off considerably. He has not passed for more than 278 yards during his last seven games. The Lions could manage only one touchdown on offense versus the lowly Jaguars at home last Sunday. Stafford is averaging one touchdown pass per game in his last four games. That's not impressive in today's pass happy, offensive-skewed NFL. 
The Vikings hold a strong defensive and coaching edge here. Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and he knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions are averaging 16.8 points in regulation in five games against the Zimmer-coached Vikings. Not once have the Lions been able to reach 20 points against Minnesota in regulation during the Zimmer era. 
The Vikings are used now to playing indoors on turf. Their offense showed signs of improvement last week more comfortable now that new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has had a few weeks to get acclimated. 

This is rare to get the Blackhawks at this price against a team that is far from automatic at home. Chicago is playing well after a slow start going 13-5 in its last 18 games, including going 8-2 during the past 10 games. 
The Blackhawks have a winning road mark, too. San Jose had a losing record at home last season. The Sharks can't be trusted laying a big price like this at home. Chicago has much the stronger offense. Chicago is 4-2 in its last six games versus San Jose.
This really comes down to the Sharks' tough defense against the Blackhawks more powerful attack. The value lies with Chicago. 

This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Jazz and they catch the Nuggets traveling off a pair of home wins playing for the third time in four days. 
It's also short revenge for the Jazz. They lost to the Nuggets just four days ago. Despite that loss, the Jazz still have covered nine of the last 12 in the series. It's a plus if George Hill is able to play for the Jazz. The Nuggets will be without Danilo Gallinari, their top offensive threat. He's out with a thigh injury. 

The Spurs have won six in a row, but Gregg Popovich isn't happy calling out his players after they barely beat injury-racked Dallas, 96-91, two nights ago. 
The Spurs rested LaMarcus Aldridge in that game. Tony Parker didn't play either. 
Charlotte isn't playing well losing four of its past six and may be without big man Cody Zeller, who is better than perceived. He's been out with a shoulder injury. 

I'll back the Hawks - the much superior defensive club hungry for a victory - catching the Pacers with possibly four key players out. Paul George, Jeff Teague, Myles Turner and C.J. Miles are all questionable. George, Teague and Turner are their three best players. 
The Hawks force the second-most turnovers in the league. The Hawks are in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row, including an embarrassing home loss to the suddenly red-hot Pelicans last night. The good news for the Hawks was nobody reached the 30-minute mark. 
Indiana ranks 26th defensively. The Pacers have dropped their last two home games by a combined 57 points. 

The Lakers are improved. But they still are a lottery team several tiers below Oklahoma City. LA doesn't match up well to Oklahoma City either. The Lakers' biggest weaknesses are rim protection, rebounding and protecting the ball.
The Thunder can exploit these weaknesses ranking third in rebounding with a tough inside presence and Russell Westbrook, who could be the best player in the NBA right now. He's averaging 33 points, 11.2 rebounds and 12.2 assists during his last five games. Those are Oscar Robertson numbers.
Oklahoma City has dominated this series winning the past nine times.  
The Thunder are in a foul frame of mind, too, coming off a 115-111 home overtime loss to the Pacers two days ago. Westbrook didn't shoot well in that game and will be highly motivated here in his former stomping ground having starred at UCLA. The Lakers rank among the bottom four in defense and were last in defensive field goal percentage.
The Lakers also might be without point guard D'Angelo Russell, who missed Monday's practice with a sore knee. 

Only four teams give up fewer goals per game than New Jersey. The Devils are a live 'dog because of their defense. The Devils could be going with backup goalie Keith Kinkaid instead of star goaltender Cory Schneider, but Kinkaid has been solid with a 2-1 record, 1.65 GAA and .944 save percentage. 
This marks San Jose's first home game following a six-game, 12-day road swing. The Sharks play their next five games at home hosting the Blackhawks on Wednesday in a marquee matchup. So this isn't a great spot for them. 
The Sharks have injuries and are cold on the power play failing to score 19 of the last 20 times with a man advantage. 
The Devils are off losses to the Ducks and Kings. They desperately would like to conclude the West Coast part of their road trip with a victory here. The Sharks have lost their last two home games. They weren't good at home either last season finished with a losing record. 

It's a mistake for any team to lay this many points to Toronto. The Raptors did play last night losing in controversial fashion to the Kings in Sacramento. They are in a bitter mood following that loss when the referees waved off a game-tying shot by Terrence Ross at the buzzer. This is just a short trip from Sacramento to LA for the Raptors. 
Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing without rest. The Raptors swept the Clippers last season and have covered the past four times in the series. 
Before losing to the Kings, the Raptors had posted road victories against the Thunder and Hornets. They then beat the Knicks at home followed by a four-point road loss to the Cavaliers then a six-point loss to the Warriors and a road win against the improved Nuggets. 
The Clippers aren't better than the Cavaliers or Warriors yet they are laying more points to the Raptors than those teams did. The Clippers carry their own high fatigue rating, too, as this marks their seventh game in 11 days and third in four days. Following this matchup, the Clippers take off an 11-game road trip so their focus could be off. 
The Clippers have star power, but so do the Raptors. Their stars - DeMar Rozan, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas - just don't draw the publicity that the Clippers' stars do because they aren't in a major U.S. media market. 

I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. 
You can talk that this is a long trip for the Patriots and they won't have injured Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots still should bury this opponent especially given the circumstances.
New England just lost at home to Seattle. That doesn't sit well with Bill Belichick. The Patriots have covered 74 percent of the time following a defeat during the past 43 instances. 
Since Week 1, the 49ers have gone 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS. Their defense has fallen apart due to their best players getting hurt and fatigue from their offense playing at such a fast-tempo. In their last eight games, the 49ers are giving up an average of 35 points and 460 yards.
The Patriots are averaging 32 points per contest since Tom Brady came back from suspension five games ago. Brady has the highest passer rating in the league at 125.5 with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. LeGarrette Blount has put up the most touchdowns of any non-quarterback. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. But Martellius Bennett is a top-10 talent. 
San Francisco's offense has improved since Colin Kaepernick took over from Blaine Gabbert. But it remains limited and well below average. The 49ers are not going to be able to keep up with a motivated and mad Patriots squad that has an elite offense. 

Miami has won four in a row. The Dolphins are staying in Southern California after upsetting San Diego this past Sunday so long travel is negated. 
The Dolphins are playing much better. A key has been the emergence of Jay Ajayi, who is the hottest running back in football with 608 yards rushing in his last four games. That's more yards than Todd Gurley has managed all season.
But the main reason for backing the Dolphins is fading the Rams with their decision to give rookie Jared Goff his first start. Goff was terrible during preseason. It's a testament to how bad Goff is that the Rams have waited all this time to bench ineffective Case Keenum. 
The Rams' strengths were supposed to be Gurley and a tough defense. Gurley hasn't cleared 100 yards rushing all season, averaging a puny 3.1 yards per carry. The Rams defense has forced only two turnovers since Week 4. 

The Lions haven't won a game by more than six points all season. They have a six-point overtime victory. Their other four victories were by a combined 11 points. 
The Jaguars actually gain more yards per game and give up fewer yards per game than the Lions. The Jaguars have outgained their last two opponents - Chiefs and Texans - by close to 280 yards. Those two teams are a combined 13-5. 
Jacksonville has an underrated pass defense and skill position talent. The Lions have a below average defense that was torched by Case Keenum at home and rank 27th in rushing yards. 
Matthew Stafford has tailed off after a hot start. He's gone six games in a row without topping 270 yards passing. Blake Bortles has been turnover prone, but he's connected for multiple touchdown passes in his last three games and is facing a Lions secondary that gives up the third-most touchdown passes and a league-high 112.4 passer rating. 

It's tough to step in against the Cowboys, who have won and covered every game since opening week. But Dallas' line is inflated here. The Ravens are well-coached and strong defensively allowing 17.8 points a game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. No team yields fewer yards and rushing yards per game than Baltimore. 
The Ravens' four losses were by a combined 19 points for an average loss of 4.7 points. 
The Cowboys are flirting with danger. They narrowly defeated Pittsburgh last week pulling the game out late in a very hard fought battle. The Cowboys also had to go through the distraction of welcoming Tony Romo back this week. The Ravens, on the other hand, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 
As a home favorite of six or more points, the Cowboys have failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times. 

This is a low total given the firepower of the Cardinals and the matchup being played on a fast track. 
Minnesota's defense isn't playing as well as it did earlier. The Vikings are allowing an average of 22.5 points during their last four games. Carson Palmer has a multitude of weapons to attack headed by David Johnson, who has put up 100 rushing/receiving yards in every game this season, future Hall of Famer and still effective Larry Fitzgerald, home run threat John Brown and a revived Michael Floyd. 
Bruce Arians is an offensive guru. It's difficult to envision the Cardinals not getting their 20 points here. They average more than 22 points per game on the season and rank seventh in total yards.
The Vikings have decent receivers for Sam Bradford, who is accurate when given protection. Stefon Diggs has emerged as a sparkplug force. The Vikings also improved their field goal and extra point kicking by finally cutting Blair Walsh. 
The Cardinals haven't been nearly as effective on defense when play on the road surrendering an average of 28 points a game - facing the Bills, 49ers and Panthers. The 49ers put up 21 and 20 points in their two games versus the Cardinals. The Vikings should be good for at least 20 points, too. 

The Rebels don't lack for talent and should play more relaxed after getting their first victory for new coach Marvin Menzies this past Wednesday. 
Fullerton has an excellent scorer in Tre Coggins, but the Titans are a very bad defensive team. They've given up triple digits in each of their last two games. 
The Titans are on the road and not in UNLV's class. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven non-conference games. 

Both teams are off bad offensive performances last night. Now, playing in the second of back-to-back games, there is a fatigue factor. I see that coming on defense with each team working hard to get their offense back in gear.

Boston has scored just 88 and 90 points during its past two games, both at home. Prior to that, the Celtics had scored at least 104 points in seven of their last eight games. They expect to be without Al Horford and Marcus Smart. That hurts them more defensively than offensively especially minus Smart. 
Avery Bradley is having a breakthrough season. He and Isaiah Thomas give Boston a strong scoring backcourt. 

The Pistons have scored 102 or more points in all but one of their five home games. The over has cashed 12 of the last 16 times the Pistons have played without rest.

Clemson can cover this number by itself. Wake Forest played its heart out last week against Louisville even leading the Cardinals in the fourth quarterback. But the Demon Deacons eventually surrendered 44 points and 343 yards rushing. Louisville averaged 9.2 yards per run attempt.
This does not bode well for the Demon Deacons. Clemson's defense got worn down last week in a 43-42 loss to Pittsburgh. The Tigers are in an angry mood and will be pumped to pour it on Wake Forest. They won't be adverse to running up a score especially with rankings at stake. 
The Tigers have a top-15 offense averaging 38.9 points per game. That average climbs to 42.5 points if you count just their last six games - all versus ACC opponents.