Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. 
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. 
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. 
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. 
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. 
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.  
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. 
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call. 

Atlanta is playing well averaging 111.3 points in winning its last four games while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor during this span. 
The Hawks catch a scheduling break as the Pistons are facing major fatigue issues coming from 18 points down to upset Miami, 93-92, on the road last night. The Pistons have a thin bench. That's one reason why they are 0-3 when they've played the second of consecutive games on the road this season. 

Dallas is thin at point guard down Deron Williams and Devin Harris, their two best point guards.

The Nets have only reached triple digits once in their last five games. They average 96 points on the season. Only one team scores less points per game than Brooklyn. 

The under has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the Nets have played a Western Conference foe. The under also is 4-1 during the Nets' last five home contests. 

The Mavericks are going to be missing Deron Williams and Devin Harris, but I have confidence veterans Raymond Felton and J.J. Barea can handle point guard duties. 
The Nets have been playing terrible defense allowing 100 or more points in six straight games. They rank second to last in offense so they can't make up for it on the offensive end. Brooklyn has lost its last four home games. 
The Nets need Joe Johnson to step up, but he's been ice cold shooting 28.3 percent from the floor in his last five games. 

This is a stop-the-pain game for the Pacers and the spot sets up right.
Indiana is coming off road losses to Memphis and San Antonio. Now the Pacers return to Bankers Life Fieldhouse for this matchup before going back on the road Saturday. 
The Pacers have been tremendous at home going 10-1, including 8-3 ATS, in their last 11 games. Their only home loss during this span came to Golden State.
Sacramento concludes a four-game, six-day road trip with this game. The tired Kings rely heavily on DeMarcus Cousins, who is mired in a shooting slump making less than 38 percent of his field goal attempts in nine games this month. 
The Pacers aren't going to lack motivation as they lost both games to the Kings last season.  

Some bowl games are going to feature shootouts. Not the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - and it's not just because this is one of the colder, more weather-vulnerable sites being in Boise, Idaho. 
Akron ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing defense and 17th in total defense. The Zips were fortunate to get some big-time transfers added to an already promising defense headed by senior linebacker Jatavis Brown. He's the MAC Defensive Player of the Year with 108 tackles, 17 1/2 tackles for losses and 10 1/2 sacks. 
Only three opponents scored more than 21 points on the Zips and two of them were Oklahoma and Bowling Green, which feature potent passing attacks something Utah State doesn't possess. The Aggies ranked just 92nd in total offense.
The under has cashed 70 percent of the time during Akron's last 43 games under Terry Bowden. It's clear Akron is a strong under team. 
Utah State is strong defensively, too. The Aggies are 22nd in total defense. Kyler Fackrell led the nation in fumble recoveries. He and Nick Vigil are probably the two best linebackers in the Mountain West Conference. 
The oddsmaker may have unfairly downgraded the Aggies' defense, though, after BYU beat Utah State, 51-28, in the last game of the regular season. The Cougars scored 51 points, but gained only 358 yards. 

Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. 
Santa Clara has a lot of youth, but also has come on to win four of its last five games. The Broncos have a pair of outstanding players, guard Jared Brownridge and forward Nate Kratch. Brownridge had 44 points in an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Arizona. He's averaging 18.9 points. Kratch is one of the best inside players in the conference averaging 12.4 points and 9.3 rebounds. 
Pacific could be without center and third leading scorer, T.J. Wallace. He has been bothered by a toe injury. Note, too, that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the series. 

Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game.
Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. 
Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. 
Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. 
The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. 
The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game. 

The Packers are playing very good defense and their offense is back in sync with Eddie Lacy running well - like he usually does late in the season - and Mike McCarthy calling plays again. 
Green Bay is better than Oakland on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are improved, but still several tiers below Green Bay. Oakland has played better on the road going 4-3 compared to 2-4 at home. 
Derek Carr is showing signs of hitting the wall. Latavius Murray already has. Aaron Rodgers isn't having an MVP season, but he still has a 28-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Timing means a lot in the NFL. The Raiders are catching the Packers at a time when Green Bay has picked up its game. 
The difference between these two teams when playing in Oakland is far closer to a touchdown than a field goal. 

The Vikings are much improved under Mike Zimmer, but they are not an elite team and they are not built to cover margins of more than a field goal - especially against division foes - with a passing attack that ranks 31st. Only once has Teddy Bridgewater thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game. 
While Zimmer has done an excellent job, so has the coaching staff of the Bears. Since Week 4, Chicago has gone 5-5. The Bears lost two of those games in overtime and the other three by a combined eight points with none of those defeats occurring by more than three points. One of those losses was 23-20 to the Vikings in Week 8 on a Minnesota field goal at the gun.
Adrian Peterson can expect to see a stacked line keying on him. Not only is Bridgewater a bottom tier quarterback - far more game manager than playmaker - but the Bears rank second in pass defense.
The Bears' offensive line has shown improvement and their key wide receivers - Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royals - should be healthy enough to play. Jay Cutler is playing under control thanks to new offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Cutler is an easy target to rip, but I like him far more than Bridgewater. The Bears also now have two good running backs with Jeremy Langford keeping Matt Forte fresh. 
The Vikings will be without linebacker Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith again and possibly nose guard Linval Joseph. Their defense isn't as good without those key defenders. 

Not enough respect is being paid to Carolina's dominant defense with this high of a total. The Panthers rank in the top five in scoring defense, total yards, run defense and pass defense. They also are first in interceptions and third in sacks. 
This is the second-largets Carolina total of the season - and the matchup doesn't merit that. 
The Giants are one-dimensional ranking 29th in rushing yards. They don't have a a decent running back. Neither do the Panthers with Jonathan Stewart. Instead the Panthers are going to go with a three man committee of Mike Tolbert, Foswhitt Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne. 
If you discount giving up 52 points on the road to New Orleans on a fast track and in a shootout, the Giants have given up a respectable average of 21.5 points in regulation during their last six games. 
Cam Newton is having an MVP-caliber season. But he doesn't have his lead back and lacks outstanding wide receivers. The Giants' secondary is better with the return from injury of cornerback Prince Amukamara. 
This is a dangerous flat spot, too, for the Panthers. I see them playing a conservative, field-position type of game relying on their outstanding defense rather than take a lot of risks in this tough December road setting. 

New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. 
This isn't some fluke. The Aggies won the Western Athletic Conference last season and WAC Tournament. They are favored to do it again this season thanks in large part to Siakam, who is the best player in the conference and someone UTEP has problems matching up against. 
Siakam already been named the conference player of the week three times. Siakam ranks in the top 10 in the country in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage.
The teams have played five times since 2013 with the Aggies going 4-1. Their only loss to UTEP during this span came by one point last season on the road. 
I don't believe UTEP is the better team. So getting points is an added bonus. 

Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. 
Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. 
Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. 
The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Memphis matches up well to the Mavericks as evidenced by the Grizzlies covering four of the last five in this series, including defeating Dallas, 110-96, at home on Nov. 24.

The smallish, finesse Mavericks have trouble against the taller, more physical Grizzlies in the frontcourt. The Grizzlies outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in the paint during that last meeting and that was without Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the most physical players in the league. 
The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team whose key shooters are on a cold streak. Dirk Nowitzki is just 20-for-55 (36.3 percent) from the field in his last five games while Wesley Matthews has missed 16 of 23 shots from the floor in his last two games. 
Dallas isn't playing well losing eight of its last 13. The Mavericks also are banged up. Backup point guard Devin Harris may not play and Chandler Parsons is dealing with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies are just 14-13, but have played a difficult schedule. They've been better on the road going 7-5-1 ATS compared to 4-10 ATS at home. They are 3-1-1 the past five times they've been road 'dogs. 

The marketplace has taken this total down too low. Not enough respect is being given to the caliber of the offenses of these two teams. The Spurs average better than 101 points per game and have the second-highest field goal percentage in the league. The Clippers average better than 102 points per game and are in the top 10 in field goal percentage. The over has cashed in 11 of the last 16 meetings between the two teams. 

The spot and situation set up perfect for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Bucks will be highly motivated after coach Jason Kidd ripped them for their embarrassing 113-95 loss to the Lakers last night.
Obviously the Bucks were in a major letdown spot still celebrating ending Golden State's 24-0 start during their previous game. The Bucks should be far more intense for this matchup. They won't have leading scorer and rebounder Greg Monroe back after he missed the Lakers game with a knee injury. But the Bucks have had a game to adjust to Monroe's absence. 
The Clippers just returned from a five-game, 10-day road trip that concluded with an overtime victory against the Pistons on Monday night. The Clippers' main stars - Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan - all logged major minutes. The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and have a far bigger game on deck Friday when they play the Spurs on the road. 

The Bucks know they can't play up-tempo against the far more talented Clippers. So I expect them to slow things down especially being short-handed at point guard with Greivis Vaszuez and Jerryd Bayless out. Michael Carter-Williams is more about defense than offense. 
The Bucks are second-to-last in the league in scoring. 
The Clippers just returned home following a five-game, 10-day road trip. So they're going to have tired legs. Their concentration could be off, too, especially with their next game looming against San Antonio on Friday. 

The Rockets are 7-3 in their last 10 games snapping out of their early season funk. They match up well to the Kings - particularly James Harden - having defeated them seven consecutive times. Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 visits to Sacramento.
Houston catches a break in that the Kings will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo. Harden is averaging 37 points and 11 assists in two games against Sacramento this season - both victories. Career-wise, Harden averages 33 points against the Kings, the highest he averages against any opponent. 
Sacramento defeated the Knicks, 99-97, in its last game. That was back on Thursday, though. Not playing for fourth straight days is too long of a break for an NBA team during this point of the season. The Kings also happen to be 6-19-1 ATS following a victory. 

The Rockets are in double revenge mode against the Nuggets. Houston is much more together and playing far better than the last two times it played and lost to Denver, including being embarrassed at home by 20 points in its opening game. 
The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine games. The team has responded to interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston always had the talent, but the right coaching had to come into place. One move that has paid major dividends is starting Patrick Beverly at point guard instead of Ty Lawson, who wasn't a good fit in the backcourt with offensive-minded James Harden. 
Houston is averaging 111.7 points in its last nine games. Denver averages fewer than 97 points a game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. 
The Nuggets are not in Houston's class. They haven't been good at home either going 4-7 at Pepsi Center with all of their defeats coming by seven or more points. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. 
Denver has injuries, too. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is out leaving washed-up Jameer Nelson to soak up the most minutes. The Nuggets also have injuries in their frontcourt. 

 

Atlanta has had Miami's number winning the past seven meetings, including going 4-0 ATS the last four times in Atlanta. The Heat haven't covered during their last eight meetings versus the Hawks. 
Miami has played only seven road games so far going 2-5. The Heat have scored 83 points or less in three of their past four away contests. On the season, Miami is averaging 88.1 points away from American Airlines Arena. 
This is a bad spot, too, for the Heat. They are coming off a 100-97 home win against Memphis on Sunday in which they rallied from 16 points down. This will be just the second time the Heat are playing without rest. The last time was back on Nov. 6 when they lost and failed to cover on the road against the Pacers.
The Hawks, on the other hand, were idle yesterday. They are motivated to perform much better than they did when they were buried, 103-78, at home by San Antonio two days ago. That was the Hawks' first game back after being on the road last Wednesday and Thursday. They are fully rested and settled in now.

This game has been moved to Sunday night. The Texans are not prime time ready. New England certainly is. It's rare to get the Patriots off a loss. It's near impossible to ever get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off consecutive losses. The last time that happened was 2002! 
Belichick and Brady are coming off rare bad performances for them. I want them going for me in this spot. Before getting upset by the Eagles this past Sunday, the Patriots were 8-0 straight-up and ATS when coming off a loss, with an average winning margin of 14 points.
The Texans haven't been able to put together a consistent ground attack since losing Arian Foster. New England, however, is far more banged-up. That's a big reason why this line is so low.
Still, no coach is better than Belichick at finding role players to fill in the niches and no quarterback is better than Brady in putting them in position to succeed. I fully expect Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, James White and Scott Chandler to play well replacing Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski. 
The Texans weren't able to take advantage of Buffalo missing its starting right guard and right tackle last Sunday. The Texans only had one sacks against the Bills, none by J.J. Watt.
This is a rare marquee matchup for the Texans. They have a number of former Patriot coaches and players. But their biggest game of the season actually comes next week when they play the Colts in a matchup that will hold huge implications for the AFC South Division title. 
The Patriots are used to pressure games and performing under the national spotlight. Not so with the Texans. 

The Raiders have actually played better on the road where there is less of a winning expectation. Apparently this, perhaps subconsciously, has removed some of the pressure from their young players.
Oakland has won three away games. The last time the Raiders did that was in 2011. 
Derek Carr is a much better quarterback than Brock Osweiler, who is more game manager than downfield threat. Only two of Carr's nine interceptions have come on the road. Carr also has only been sacked five times on the road compared to 11 at home. He has 26 touchdowns throws with a chance to set the Raiders' franchise record for TD passes in a season. 
Denver is extremely banged-up. Both of the Broncos' running back, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, are nursing injuries. Denver's offensive line is thinned by injuries and its defense could be missing four starters. 
The Broncos know how to win, but they are not built to cover margins like this. Only three of their 10 victories have come by more than seven points. Denver is averaging just 17.7 points during regulation in its last four games. 
The Raiders held the Broncos to without a touchdown on offense in a 16-10 loss in Week 5. 

Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. 
The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. 
During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. 
Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense.
Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. 
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing. 

The Bengals took advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger when they beat the Steelers, 16-10, in Week 8. Roethlisberger threw three interceptions in his first game back after missing four games because of a knee injury.
Look for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offense to play far better this time around. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. Roethlisberger is averaging 383.2 yards passing in his last four games throwing for 10 touchdowns during this span. Antonio Brown is a monster when Big Ben is behind center. He's caught seven touchdown passes in the eight games Roethlisberger has played. 
Making matters worse for the Bengals is their secondary has injuries. Cornerback Adam Jones is not expected to play due to a foot injury. Cincinnati also may be missing cornerback Leon Hall with a back injury and free safety George Iloka with a groin injury. Another cornerback, Dre Kirkpatric, is limited by a knee injury. Jones, Hall and Kirkpatrick are all veteran cornerbacks. If they're limited - or absent - the Bengals are forced to rely on a pair of rookies one being undrafted Troy Hill against one of the top passing offenses in the league. 
The Steelers have only given up three rushing touchdowns all season. I like Roethlisberger far better than Andy Dalton if this one turns into a shootout, which it very well could do. 
The Bengals have been fortunate up to this point with injuries. That luck, though, is running out. Cincinnati has only outgained five of its last 10 opponents. The Bengals are ripe for a fall with a three game division lead on the more desperate 7-5 Steelers. Pittsburgh has a strong history playing at Cincinnati and playing in December. 
The Steelers have won and covered in four of their last five visits to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh also is 8-0 straight-up and ATS in its last eight December games. 

In today's pass-crazy, rules-favoring offense a total of less than 41 should be considered very low. This is especially so inside a fast-track dome, which this matchup takes place in. 
Detroit's offense has picked up both running-wise and in pass-blocking. Matthew Stafford has played much better since Jim Bob Cooter became the new offensive coordinator. Stafford has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. Detroit is averaging 34 points during the last two weeks. 
The Rams' defense has tailed off with just six sacks in their five games. St. Louis is surrendering an average of 29 points during its last two games. The Rams also suffered a couple of key injuries last week. Already down team sacks leader Robert Quinn for the season, the Rams also could be missing strong safety Tim McDonald and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. 
This total is low because the Rams rank last in passing. Most of the Rams' season passing statistics come from Nick Foles, who has been beyond terrible. But Case Keenum is back this week. Keenum isn't very good either but he can provide a spark. Just about anybody under center would be an upgrade on Foles.
Remember, too, the Rams have one of the best running backs in football in Todd Gurley. Both teams can be dangerous on special teams, too. 

Look for a heavy dose of running between both teams with bad weather in the forecast. Heavy rain and gusting winds are predicted. The Redskins play far worst on the road. Even though they have failed to rush for 100 yards in seven games, the Redskins figure to stay on the ground a lot. That's Chicago's plan, too, given the weather conditions and Washington's below average run defense. The weather conditions are going to make it rough on both kickers, too. 

Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites.
UCLA is more than capable of springing the upset. Just ask Kentucky. The Bruins beat the Wildcats, 87-77, two games ago as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Bruins have had a week to prepare for this matchup having been idle the past six days. 
The Bruins are tough to defend because they have a well balanced lineup. All five of their starters can score. UCLA can hang with Gonzaga on the boards and are a much better free throw shooting team. 
UCLA also has revenge for an 87-74 home loss to the Bulldogs last season. 

Charlotte is playing its best ball winning four in a row. The Hornets are giving up just 90 points per game during this span. Sparked by improved Kemba Walker and newcomer Nicolas Batum, who is enjoying a big comeback season, the Hornets have quietly won 14 of their last 19 and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. 
The Hornets' confidence is sky high after burying Memphis, 123-99, on the road last night. The lopsided margin allowed Charlotte to rest its regulars down the stretch. Only Walker logged more than 31 minutes. 
Boston also played well last night - but lost 124-119 in double overtime to undefeated Golden State at home. The Celtics probably should have won the game. It was a monster effort by the Celtics. Boston has good depth and is well coached. However, I can't see the Celtics turning out another strong, motivated performance off this brutal loss and with no rest on the road against a team that is playing as well as Charlotte is. The timing is all wrong for Boston. 
The Hornets have won 10 of their last 13 home contests. They are better than Boston, at home and in a much better situation spot. 

Orlando is much improved, playing far better defense under Scott Skiles than they did under Jacque Vaughn last season. The Magic's young players are developing well under Skills, too.
But the Magic aren't ready to step up against Cleveland as this low spread may indicate. 
The Cavaliers have defeated Orlando 11 consecutive times, winning those matchups by an average of 14.1 points a game. They defeated the Magic, 117-103, at home on Nov. 23. Cleveland has covered in its last six visits to Orlando.
The Magic can now beat bad teams. But they have struggled against elite foes. Their best win is against Toronto. The Magic lack a go-to scorer. They struggle in close games often taking bad shots late in games and losing composure. The veteran Cavaliers can exploit that.  
Orlando has no answer for LeBron James. There's a chance the Cavaliers could also get back Iman Shumpert here. I can't see the Magic having the consistency for four quarters that is necessary to beat an opponent the caliber of Cleveland. 
James is going to get to the free throw line often as Orlando gives up the fourth-most foul shots per 48 minutes in the league. The Magic, however, just rank 28th in free throws attempted. So I envision a disparity in free throw shots between the two teams as the youthful Magic get too pumped for this marquee opponent.
The spot isn't good either for the Magic. The Cavaliers have been idle since Tuesday. Orlando, on the other hand, finished a five-game, 10-day road trip with a 107-104 loss to the Suns this past Wednesday night leaving them little time to get back adjusted to Florida life.  

After giving up the highest defensive rating in the NBA during their last three-game span, the Pacers have worked hard on improving their defense during the past two days following their 131-123 home loss to unbeaten Golden State this past Tuesday. 
The Pacers are in a physical, take no-prisoners mood trying to end a three-game losing streak. Their opponent, Miami, is a defensive-minded team, too. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game and in defensive field goal percentage. They also rank fifth in defending against 3-pointers, a key when playing the Pacers.
The Heat, however, rank 27th in scoring and 28th in possessions per game. They really struggle to score on the road. The most they've scored away from home is 92 points. Indiana is 11-1 to the under the past 12 times when playing on two days rest. 

Arizona ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per game (419.5) and points (31.8) per game. Carson Palmer is on pace to throw for 4,924 yards and 39 touchdowns. 
The Vikings are going to be missing three of their key defensive players - linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Harrison Smith and nose tackle Linval Joseph. That makes Minnesota especially vulnerable to the Cardinals' high-powered offense. 
Palmer has three excellent wide receiving targets and rookie David Johnson gives the Cardinals a speed element out of the backfield. 
The Vikings were roundly criticized for their poor offensive showing and play-calling in last week's 38-7 loss to Seattle. Expect a lot more of Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater taking shots downfield to loosen up the Cardinals' run defense. 
The Cardinals' defensive statistics look good because they've played the Rams and 49ers the past two weeks holding those offensively-challenged foes to a combined 16 points.
Prior to playing those two teams, though, the Cardinals had surrendered 31 points to the Bengals and 32 points to the Seahawks. 

It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday.
Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 
Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. 
The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense. 

Clippers at Bulls Under 201

Both teams played last night in fast-paced game breaking 100 points each. The Bulls lost 105-100 to the Celtics on the road while the Clippers buried the Bucks, 109-95, on the road. Both games went over the total.
Now look for a much slower tempo in this matchup since the Clippers and Bulls both played last night and each are in action for the third time in four days. The under has cashed four of the last five times the Clippers have played with zero rest. 

Chicago is averaging 95.8 points in its last eight games. The Bulls have lost three in a row so this is a stop-the-pain game for them. Their defensive intensity should be up. As for their offense, they're still not sure what they're doing under rookie coach Fred Hoiberg. 
The Bulls are 9-2-1 to the under in their last 12 games at United Center. They also have gone under seven of the past eight times they've faced a Western Conference opponent. 

This total is too high for these two teams. The recent scoring average for each team is inflated by both having played Houston.

If you discount their game versus the Rockets, the 76ers are averaging 86.6 points in their last eight road games. If you discount their matchup against the Rockets, the Nets are averaging 91.6 points in their last five games.

Philadelphia is the lowest scoring team in the league and second to last in field goal percentage. The Nets have the worst 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA and rank 25th in scoring. 

I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here.
Long Beach State is 5-5. But its losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State twice, San Diego State and UCLA. Those were all on the road, too. This has made the 49ers battle-tested and underrated. 
The 49ers are an excellent 3-point shooting team with good depth. Nick Faust just was named Big West Conference Player of the Week this past Monday. The Maryland transfer is living up to his billing averaging better than 17 points per game.
Sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins is playing well, too, keeping up the 49ers' tradition of good point guards. Bibbins has done the job replacing three-year starter Michael Caffey, ranking second in the Big West in assists and being 16th in the nation in assists-to-turnovers. 
Pepperdine doesn't have Long Beach State's offense, is undersized and turnover-prone. The 49ers average four more points per game than the Waves and are better from the free throw line. Pepperdine lost by 14 to UCLA on the road earlier this season, while Long Beach State fell to the Bruins by seven in its last game this past Sunday. 
The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while Pepperdine has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games. 

As bad as the Lakers are, the Timberwolves can't be laying these many points. Minnesota have lost four in a row. They are 2-9 at home and 4-22-1 ATS during their last 27 games at Target Center versus an opponent with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
The Lakers have revenge for a one-point home loss to Minnesota in which they shot just 37.6 percent from the field. 
LA has won during its last two visits to Minnesota. Kobe Bryant actually made half of his field goal attempts in the Lakers' last game helping the Lakers cover against the Raptors. 
The Lakers are going to have few winnable road matchups. This is one of them. 

The Grizzlies haven't yet reverted to their past consistent form. But they still are a level above the Pistons. This is a bounce back spot for Memphis after being embarrassed, 125-88, by Oklahoma City at home last night. The lone bright spot for Memphis from that game is that only Zach Randolph played more than 30 minutes. 
Memphis has followed up each of its last four defeats with a victory in its next game. The Pistons have matchup problems against the Grizzlies lacking the perimeter game to draw the Grizzlies' big front line out of the paint. Only two teams are shooting worse from the floor than the Pistons, who make less than 42 percent of their field goals. 
The Pistons also are 21st in defensive field goal percentage at 45.1 percent. Memphis is 10-0 when shooting above 42 percent from the field. 

Early money has come on Maryland and I agree with the marketplace. Maryland is the superior team. I respect Connecticut's defense, but the Terrapins have NBA-caliber players and rank third in the nation in field goal percentage. They have shot better than 50 percent in five straight games.

Playing and losing at North Carolina was good experience and humbling for Maryland. It makes the Terrapins more battle tested for this matchup.

Note that this game is being played at Madison Square Garden. The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in neutral site contests. Connecticut already has dropped neutral site games to Syracuse and Gonzaga. 

It took the firing of Kevin McHale and getting Ty Lawson out of the starting point guard role, but the Rockets are finally coming on. They've won three in a row and five of their last six. 
Houston has beaten the Nets in 11 of its last 12 visits. The Rockets catch the Nets shorthanded missing two of their rotation players, Andrea Bargnani and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had been providing Brooklyn with a spark. 
Patrick Beverly is a much better point guard fit for the Rockets than the diminutive Lawson because he's unselfish and is a much better defender. James Harden needs to be able to concentrate on his offense. Harden has been playing up to his superstar level since the change. 
The Rockets aren't shy about shooting 3-pointers with Harden. The Nets rank 27th in 3-point defense. 
This isn't a flat spot game either for the Rockets. They have revenge for when the Nets beat them in Houston, 106-98, on Nov. 11 when they weren't playing well. 

The Nets are last in 3-pointers and third-to-last in scoring. They haven't reached triple digits in their last six games. 

Through the course of the long NBA season there are certain up and down spots. Phoenix is in one of the major down spots in its season both physically and mentally. 
The Suns are playing their sixth road game in nine days, fifth in seven days and second in two days. After this matchup in Chicago, the Suns finally get to head back to the desert. where they haven't been since the day after Thanksgiving. 
Not only do the Suns carry the highest fatigue rating, but they are demoralized and down mentally. They are 1-8 in their last nine games, 0-4 in their last four games blowing fourth-quarter leads during each game of their losing streak. The worst was on Sunday when the Suns came from six points down against the always physical Grizzlies with 90 seconds left. 
The Suns managed to tie the score and had the ball for a final shot. However, with less than a second left Brandon Knight lost the ball out of bounds. The Grizzlies then managed to pull off a perfect half-court alley-oop pass to Jeff Green for a dunk and a 95-93 victory. Eric Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged more than 40 minutes in the game while Brandon Knight played more than 37 minutes. The Suns do not have a strong bench. 
During their four-game losing streak, the Suns have lost by a combined 13 points. None of their defeats was by more than five points. They are due to get blown out and the Bulls have the capability and situation to do just that. 

Chicago has the fifth highest winning percentage in the NBA. The Bulls beat the Suns, 103-97, on the road on Nov. 18 without Derrick Rose and when Phoenix had Tyson Chandler. The big center has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to play today. Memphis scored 48 points in the paint yesterday against the Suns, who are vulnerable inside without their best rim defender. 

The Bulls shouldn't lack for motivation. They are off an embarrassing, 102-96, home loss to Charlotte from two days ago. The Bulls have won and covered the past five times following a defeat. 

The Colts couldn't win a shootout last year against Ben Roethlisberger losing 51-34 at Pittsburgh. That was with Andrew Luck. I don't see the Colts keeping up with Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's high-scoring offense this year with Matt Hasselbeck and a having a worse team than from a year ago.
Hasselbeck is 4-0 replacing Luck. Kudos to him. But there's a due factor - and the clock is ticking. I see it stopping in this matchup. The Colts dominate their weak AFC South Division brothers. Out of division, though, they have problems. 
Roethlisberger has led the Steelers to three consecutive games of scoring at least 30 points. The Colts don't have the quarterback to keep up, nor the defense to slow down the Steelers especially minus underrated injured linebacker Jerrell Freeman. 
Pittsburgh ranks fourth in total yards despite not having Roethlisberger for four games and is seventh in run defense. They have too much balance for the Colts, who rank 22nd in yards and 26th in yards given up. 

Denver is in a prime letdown spot traveling to sunny San Diego after upsetting New England at home in a prime time Sunday night victory at home in frigid conditions. The Broncos won in overtime exerting a lot of energy in coming back from two touchdowns down in the final quarter.
The Broncos could be down three starters on defense on top of already being thin in the offensive line. The Broncos are led by Brock Osweiler, who has done a nice job since replacing Peyton Manning. But the Broncos are not a downfield, attacking type team. They are run-oriented and short-passing with Osweiler, not built to cover mid-size spreads against division foes on the road especially in a flat spot like this.
This has been a lost year for the Chargers. But they did get a large part of their confidence back by winning on the road last week. Philip Rivers is having another brilliant campaign. He makes the Chargers live to beat any foe. The Chargers have come close against the Bengals losing by five points, hung tough against the Packers having a chance to force overtime at the Green Bay three-yard line before running out of downs late in the game and losing at the gun at Baltimore. 
The Chargers are getting healthier, especially at linebacker. Rivers' savvy covers up their offensive line injuries and Melvin Gordon ran better last week. 

This is a kill spot for the rested Grizzlies against the weary Suns. Phoenix, with its small lineup, doesn't match up well to the physical Grizzlies. Phoenix has lost during its last seven meetings to Memphis.
That's not going to change here. The Suns are playing their fifth consecutive road game and fourth in five days. This is an early start time, too, another negative for the Suns. The Suns are are an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that is running on empty. The Suns also could be without their lone decent big man, Tyson Chandler, for a fifth straight game.  
The Grizzlies are 8-3 in their last 11 games, having stepped up their play. But they are off their most lopsided loss in a month falling to San Antonio, 103-83, at home this past Thursday. They've had two full days to regroup and get psyched up to take their frustrations out on the Suns. 
Phoenix just wants to get home. The Suns have lost seven of their past eight playing no defense giving up 113.4 points per game during this span. The Grizzlies offense has picked up with the recent recent pick up of Mario Chalmers. Before losing to the Spurs, the Grizzlies had scored 101 or more points in five of their last six games. 

The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. 
Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. 
Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy.
The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense.
St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. 
The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. 
This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now. 

It's not that I'm in love with Miami. This handicap is far more of a fade on Baltimore. The Ravens are decimated without their quarterback, top running back, top wide receiver, top pass rusher and perhaps three starting offensive linemen. All together, the Ravens have lost a staggering 17 players for the season.
Yet the Ravens pulled off an improbable road win on Monday night against division rival Cleveland. It's one of the few times the Ravens get to celebrate this season. It also puts them in a terrible situation to go back on the road on a short week to face a frustrated Dolphins team that is much healthier than the Ravens. 
The Dolphins have been disappointing much of the season. But they are 3-4 under interim coach Dan Campbell compared to 1-3 under disposed coach Joe Philbin. Campbell isn't going to outsmart many opposing head coaches, but the Dolphins have been more physical under him and usually have been at their best in a bullying role.
That's the spot here as the Ravens are the Ravens in name only. Injuries have reduced their talent level to bottom of the barrel. Matt Schaub has a 12-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio since 2013. He has become the king of Pick-Sixes throwing five of them during this span. 
A switch in offensive coordinators should help the Dolphins revitalize their ground attack, which would make Ryan Tannehill more effective. 

I like the two young quarterbacks on these teams a lot. 
Blake Bortles makes things happen - be it with touchdown throws or interceptions. He's anything but a game manager. That's the kind of quarterback I like when going over a total. 
Any total posted below 44 points in  today's pass-happy, rules-favoring-offense NFL is a sweat for going below. 
Sparked by Bortles, the Jaguars are averaging 24.8 points in their last seven games. Their defense remains bad, though, particularly against the pass. That's why the Jaguars surrender 27.2 points per contest, fourth-highest in the league. 
Marcus Mariota is a dual-threat quarterback who was held back by former Titan coach Ken Whisenhunt. New coach Mike Malarkey is astute enough to give Mariota the green light to run. I expect him to exploit a weak Jacksonville defense. 

Orlando has won five in a row. The Clippers are going to be without star point guard Chris Paul and possibly starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. 
But there still is enough of a class difference that the Clippers should win especially at home. 
Orlando's victories during its win streak have been against the Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves and Jazz minus Rudy Gobert. This is a step-up game for the Magic. 
The Clippers swept last season's two meetings winning by an average of 26 points. Orlando is much improved this season under Scott Skiles, but the gap hasn't been cut nearly enough where the Magic can win this game even without Paul.
The Clippers have a veteran, strong bench. The Clippers can overcome the loss of their starting backcourt and will be fired-up to play after being embarrassed at home by the Pacers in their last game this past Wednesday. 

The Knicks are in a flat spot after a satisfying beat down of the Nets last night at home. This marks the Knicks' first road game since Nov. 25. 
The Bucks have a cluster injury problem at point guard with poor-shooting, turnover-prone Michael Carter-Williams their lone healthy point guard. Greivis Vasquez is out with an ankle injury. So is Jerryd Bayless, who sprained his ankle last night against the Pistons. Tyler Ennis is out, too, with an injured shoulder suffered in practice. 
The Bucks are averaging just 85.8 points during their last five games. The Knicks rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage.

Early money has been on North Carolina shrinking the line in this ACC title matchup. I believe that money is wrong. Clemson is the better team on both sides of the ball and is experienced in huge games, something the Tar Heels are not. This is North Carolina's first ACC championship game. 
Clemson took advantage of the Tar Heels' lack of defense last year winning, 50-35, at home. Deshaun Watson accounted for seven touchdowns in that game and the Tigers rolled up 528 yards. True, North Carolina is much improved defensively from last season. But the gap still is larger than this spread.
North Carolina has won 11 in a row. Impressive, but its schedule wasn't that difficult. Two victories came against FCS opponents. The Tar Heels and Tigers did meet five common foes. Clemson allowed an average of 150 yards less per game than North Carolina did against those foes and nearly 11 fewer first downs per game than North Carolina did against those opponents. 
The Tar Heels can't match Clemson's big game pedigree either. Clemson upset Ohio State in the Orange Bowl two seasons ago and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, in its bowl game last season. North Carolina played in lesser bowl games the previous two seasons. 
I respect North Carolina's skill position players, but I like Watson better than any other college quarterback and I want him going for me in this game. Watson was the only player to pass for at least 3,000 yards and rushed for 756 yards. He also completed 70.4 percent of his throws, third-best in the nation. 
The Tar Heels have failed to cover nine of the past 14 times as an underdog under Larry Fedora. 

This line is short given how bad the Kings are and how the Rockets are turning things around under interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. 
Sacramento is 1-3 in its last four games and coming off a dreadful second half effort against Boston this past Thursday night in a game played in Mexico. The Kings also lost rookie big man Willie Cauley-Stein for four-to-six weeks after he suffered a dislocated right index finger in the loss to the Celtics. 
Houston has covered in five of its last six meetings versus the Kings winning all six. James Harden takes full advantage of the Kings' porous defense, which ranks 29th in defensive scoring and in defensive field goal percentage. Harden is averaging 46 points while shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in his last three games against the Kings.
The Rockets have picked up their play since firing Kevin McHale winning four of their last five. Houston defeated Dallas on the road last night without Dwight Howard. He's expected to play in this matchup going against DeMarcus Cousins. 

Look for defense, not offense, to dominate in the inaugural American Athletic Conference title game between Temple and Houston just like it has during the previous two meetings between these teams.
Houston hosted Temple last season and won, 31-10. The Cougars also defeated the Owls, 22-13, on the road in 2013. 
Both teams are just as strong, if not stronger, defensively this season. Temple gives up less than 19 points per game. Only 15 teams surrender fewer points. The Owls also rank 17th in total defense sparked by senior linebacker Tyler Matakevich. They haven't allowed a touchdown during their last two games. 
The Cougars rank 22nd in scoring defense holding opponents to 21.1 points per contest. They are among the leaders in creating turnovers and also have the No. 12 run defense in the nation, huge because the Owls heavily rely on their star running back Jahad Thomas. He rushed for 49 yards against the Cougars last season. 

Houston likes to run, too, behind dual threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. The Owls will be prepared for him. Temple has held six of its last nine opponents to less than 17 points. 
The combination of two strong defenses and a lot of running ball - which eats clock - sets up this strong under play. 

New Orleans really struggles defensively. The Pelicans have yielded triple digits in all but two of their 19 games.

The Pelicans can score, though, especially now with a healthy Tyreke Evans back. Jrue Holiday also will be playing in this game. Both players are more offensive than defensive minded. 

The Pelicans average 109 points at home. Cleveland is going to get its points. The Cavaliers are 40-18 to the over when playing on two days rest. 

The Knicks are improved this season, but the Nets are way under the radar screen. The perception is the Nets are one of the  worst teams in the league. They fulfilled those low expectations and increased that perception by losing their first seven games, covering just once.
Since then, however, the Nets have gone 10-1 ATS. During this span they took unbeaten Golden State to overtime on the road, lost by two to the Cavaliers on the road while posting victories against the Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Pistons and Suns. They have stayed within two points in regulation in eight of their last 11 games. 
Brooklyn has covered six of its last seven away contests and enter this matchup in good form and with the confidence of having gone 4-0 versus the Knicks last season.
The Nets last played on Tuesday when they defeated the Suns, 94-91. During the weekend they lost 90-88 at Cleveland when LeBron James sank a last-second shot and then defeated the Pistons on Sunday. The Nets are a sparkling 8-0 ATS on two days rest. 
The Knicks halted a four-game losing streak by beating the lowly 76ers on Wednesday taking advantage of a favorable situation where Philadelphia had just ended the longest losing streak in pro sports history the night before and were playing the Knicks without their leading scorer and rebounder, Jahlil Okafor. The Knicks have failed to cover the past four times when playing on one day rest. 

Detroit is going to get its points. So is Green Bay. 
The Packers scored 30 points at Minnesota the last time their backs were to the wall. That was against a much stronger defense.  
Green Bay's offense has underachieved after leading the NFL in scoring last year at more than 30 points a game. But the Packers still are in the top 12 averaging just under 24 points a game. 
Aaron Rodgers has a strong history against the Lions with a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last 13 games versus them. Eddie Lacy is running better and Green Bay's offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Packers were caught by surprise by the Lions playing press coverage during the first meeting. They won't be if the Lions try that again. 
Since that game the Lions lost veteran nickel back Josh Wilson and may be without free safety Glover Quin, who is the quarterback of Detroit's secondary and probably their third best defensive player in back of pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah and linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is out for the season. Quin suffered an ankle injury in the Lions' blowout win against the Eagles last Thursday. 
The Lions would lose a lot if Quin can't play. He would be replaced by James Ihedigbo, who is a veteran but lacks speed. He was burned by Jordan Matthews on a 24-yard touchdown catch after replacing Quin. 
Green Bay's receiving corps has been disappointing obviously missing Jordy Nelson. But Randall Cobb would rate a huge edge against rookie Quandre Diggs in the slot. Davonte Adams, James Jones and No. 4 wide receiver, underrated and now healthy Jared Abbrederis, would rate edges against starting cornerbacks Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson along with No. 4 defensive back Crezdon Butler thanks to Rodgers.
There shouldn't be any missed field goals either. Mason Crosby and Matt Prater are a combined 33-for-35 in field goals and will be kicking in a dome. 

Look for Air Force to improved on its 42 percent field goal shooting against The Citadel, which ranks among the worst defensive teams. 
Opponents are making better than 53 percent of their shots from the floor against The Citadel. Air Force led the Mountain West Conference in field goal percentage last season at 47.4 percent. 
The Citadel can't play defense, but it can score being up-tempo, making 33 percent of their 3-point shots - which it fires at will - and hit 82.2 percent from the foul line. Only nine teams fire up more shots per game than The Citadel. The Bulldogs, though, are surrendering 106.7 points per game when playing on the road. 
The average combined final score total on a game involving The Citadel this season is 188.8 points. Air Force has gone over the total in 17 of its last 22 games. The over, meanwhile, has cashed in 21 of the Bulldogs' last 27 games. 

The Hawks are much more efficient on offense when playing at home shooting 47.4 percent from the floor compared to 44 percent on the road. Their 3-point shooting is better, too, at home - 37.2 percent to 33.6 percent on the road.
Atlanta is averaging 110 points during its last three home games. The Hawks are healthy and should put up triple digits again at home.
Toronto has a strong history of going over the total (18-7-1 over) when playing at Atlanta. The Raptors have scored 100 or more points in eight of their last 11 games.  

This may be the only time all season, but the 76ers are in a letdown spot. Philadelphia got the monkey off its back ending its 28-game losing streak by beating the Lakers, 103-91, at home last night. 
Now the 76ers have to play 24 hours later on the road - and for the third time in four days - against a Knicks team that desperately needs to win this game. The 76ers lack the maturity and experience to play well without rest after an emotional victory. 
New York has been idle since Sunday. The Knicks have lost four in a row after a tough overtime loss to Houston. The Knicks were missing Carmelo Anthony due to illness in that loss. He's expected to play today. 
The Knicks have increased their firepower with Anthony, a now healthy Arron Affalo and good-looking rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds during his last five games. 

There could actually be some defensive intensity in this matchup as the 76ers try to end a 28-game losing streak, the longest losing streak in major U.S. team sports history. 
The 76ers are hosting the Lakers, the worst team in the Western Conference with a 2-14 mark. Both teams are offensively challenged. 
The Lakers rank last in the NBA in field goal percentage. They are averaging just 92 points in their last five games and are 6-1 under in their last seven games versus Eastern Conference opponents.
This is Kobe Bryant's final game in Philadelphia. So expect him to fire up a lot of shots. That's good for the under, too, since Bryant is making only 30.5 percent of his shots from the field this season. That figure shrinks to 23.7 percent going on his last four games. 
Philadelphia is last in scoring in the NBA at 90.8 points per game. Only twice in their last 10 games have the 76ers broken the 91-point barrier. 

I like the Mavericks enough to put them out at this price without DeMarcus Cousins' status being known yet. Cousins has missed the Kings' last three games with a back sprain. Sacramento is 1-7 without him this season.
So obviously it's a huge plus if Cousins misses another game. Even if Cousins plays, though, the Mavericks are the better team. They certainly have more savvy and veteran experience being the second-oldest team in the league. 
Dallas has taken advantage of the Kings' immaturity for years winning nine of the past 11 times in Sacramento, including the last three. Cousins could be a little rusty if he gets the green light. He'll be defended by Zaza Pachulia, who is having a career year so far. 
Rojon Rondo is having a huge comeback season. He'll be motivated to do well against his former team having had multiple conflicts with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle last season. But this cuts both ways. The Mavs certainly are familiar with Rondo. Deron Williams is having his own nice comeback season for Dallas. 
The Kings rank last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games versus Western Conference foes, while the Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus Western Conference opponents. 

It now appears DeMarcus Cousins is going to play for the Kings. He's missed the last three games with a sore back. That's good and bad for the total. Cousins is a top scorer, but also is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He's not going to be rusty defensively. But he could rusty on offense.
If Cousins doesn't play that's good, too, for the under because his fill-ins are not scorers. 
Dallas is averaging just 90.3 points in its last three games. The Mavericks do not have a strong inside scoring game. They are just 24th in 3-point shooting, though. 

The Bucks have revenge for a 103-102 loss to the Nuggets on Nov. 11. The Bucks were minus Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker in that game. 
Denver has lost six in a row. The Nuggets have failed to cover in their last five games.
The Bucks are the deeper team and have shown signs of playing better defense.

The Bucks have the defensive guards and depth to exploit Denver rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who is on pace to become the first player in league history to shoot less than 35 percent from the field and commit an average of three turnovers a game. 

Both offenses are going to treat this matchup with a very conservative approach. New England has to because of a cluster injury problem it has at wide receiver and on the offensive line. The Broncos have to because of the inexperience of Brock Osweiler, making just his second NFL start.
There also is bad weather to take into account. The forecast in Denver for this Sunday night matchup is for 15 degrees with the possibility of snow at around 60 percent. It's going to be frigid conditions not suitable for a lot of passing. 
The Patriots are minus tailback Dion Lewis and wide receivers Julian Edelman and Aaron Dobson. If Danny Amendola doesn't play, the Patriots won't have a wide receiver with more than 17 catches on the season. I'm expecting a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount running and eating clock for the Patriots.
The Broncos give up the fewest yards in the league. They have the top pass defense and have the most sacks with 34. 
The Patriots' defense has been underrated this season. Belichick should easily win a chess matchup against Osweiler, who attempted just three passes of more than 10 yards last week, none of which were completed. The Broncos could be missing their No. 2 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who hasn't caught a pass during the last two games. 

The Bengals are anxious to return to their winning ways after losing the past two weeks in nationally televised losses to the Texans and Cardinals. Cincinnati is very tough at home where they have covered 17 of their past 22 games.
Cincinnati doesn't have a major weakness and is one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Rams' strength is their defense and running back Todd Gurley. 
The Bengals have a balanced attack and a defense that allows 18.6 points per game, fourth-lowest in the NFL. I see the Bengals trumping the Rams on both sides of the ball. 
St. Louis' offensive line is decimated down three starters. Left tackle Greg Robinson has looked terrible. The Rams quarterback situation of Case Keenum and Nick Foles could be the weakest in the league and can't take advantage of the Bengals loading the box to stop Gurley. 
The Rams have scored fewer than 20 points in 60 percent of their games. They are averaging 14.6 points in their last three games. Their passing attack ranks last.
This also has been a very distracting week for the St. Louis players with its teammate, Steadman Bailey, getting shot. So focus could be an issue, too. The Rams can't hang close unless they produce an "A" effort. I don't see that happening based on matchups and situation. 

The Giants have dominated this series winning and covering the past five times, including 32-21 in Week 3. New York has won four of the past five games by double-digits. 
New York is off a bye, while the Redskins were pounded, 44-16, by the physical Panthers last Sunday. 
Eli Manning is on pace to throw 34 touchdown passes. The Redskins are thin at cornerback and rank 30th in run defense. They haven't been good running the ball either ranking 25th. 
Washington is a ground-and-pound team. Kirk Cousins commits too many turnovers for the Redskins to be anything but ground-and-pound. However, their rushing attack has sputtered as only once during the last six games has their leading rusher broken the 30-yard barrier.
The Giants also have their best pass rusher back, Jason Pierre-Paul. He drew constant double-teams from the Patriots two weeks ago. The Giants came close to dealing the Patriots their first defeat falling 27-26 on a field goal at the end of the game. The Redskins played the Patriots three weeks ago and were never in the game during a 27-10 loss. 

The Bills are a gritty team whose defense has improved as the season winds down with the players becoming more familiar with Rex Ryan's schemes. 
Buffalo just held the Patriots, with their second-rated offense, to a season-low 20 points. 
Kansas City is getting a lot of love, though, in this matchup because it has won and covered four in a row. Kudos to Andy Reid for keeping the Chiefs together after a tough early-season, but his team isn't that good.
The Chiefs hit a lucky patch during their win streak. First they beat the Steelers when Pittsburgh had to use Landry Jones at quarterback. Jones is one of the worst backups in the league. The Chiefs then caught the Lions in London when Detroit was still in disarray and had just made a switch in offensive coordinators. 
Kansas City then drew the Broncos when Peyton Manning was playing hurt and at his most ineffective. After that win was a victory last week against a messed-up, injury-racked Chargers squad that was at their lowest ebb. 
The Chiefs rank well below average in passing, which is no surprise with Alex Smith at center. Smith can win given weapons, but he's not going to pile on points. Because of their passing limitations, the Chiefs heavily rely on their tailback. That tailback could be third-stringer Spencer Ware. So Smith doesn't have outstanding weapons.

So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced.
Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence.
Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. 
Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. 
San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road.
When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win. 

Houston's defense is playing extremely well giving up just two touchdowns during the last 14 quarters. J.J. Watt is having another MVP-type season with 11 1/2 sacks, including 7 1/2 sacks in his last four games.
The Texans are No. 1 in the NFL in third down defense and rank fifth in fewest passing yards allowed. Drew Brees is 36 and while still good, no longer is an elite quarterback. 
The Texans' defense playing well has coincided with Houston's offense reducing its tempo. The Texans are going at a much slower pace than they did earlier in the season. This makes sense because the Texans do no have a dynamic offense. They are going to look play ball control with their various mediocre running backs playing for field position and to run clock to keep the ball away from Brees.
The Saints were idle last week. There was a significant decision that happened during the Saints' bye week and that was defensive coordinator Rob Ryan getting fired replaced by former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen. Ryan has been out of touch with today's passing attacks for a long time. The Saints are on a record pace to give up the most touchdown passes in a season. Too many times New Orleans defensive players were out of position. Ryan's firing should have happened much earlier. 
I see the Saints defense being much improved under Allen, who built a strong reputation when he was the defensive coordinator of the Broncos. New Orleans' defensive talent is better than its statistics indicate. 
The combination of Houston's hot defense, conservative offense and expected huge improvement from the Saints defense puts me on the under. 

The won-lost record is terrible, but quietly the Nets have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-0 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points.
The Nets are a veteran team that should be motivated going against LeBron James. The Cavaliers aren't so excited about playing the lowly Nets especially after ending a three-game road losing streak by defeating Charlotte, 95-90, last night. James played 38 minutes in that game so he's likely not to log such a high minute count in this matchup. 
While the Cavaliers were playing a tough game last night, the Nets have been idle the past two days. Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS the last seven times when playing on two days rest. They also are 21-7 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. 
The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a victory. The Cavaliers, still minus Kyrie Irving, have yet to come together. They have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. That's evident in the Cavaliers just beating the winless 76ers by seven and six points this season. 

Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. 
Jim Harbaugh has been everything Michigan could have hoped for this season restoring the Wolverines back into elite status. But Michigan isn't in Ohio State's class yet. 
The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. Urban Meyer won't hold a coaching edge like he has on past Michigan coaches, but he does still have a talent advantage.
Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball a lot. He didn't show a lot of class after the Buckeyes fell to the Spartans, but he's one of the best running backs in the country. Elliott has rushed for 3,336 yards the past two seasons and scored 35 touchdowns. Michigan couldn't stop Indiana on the ground two weeks ago as Jordan Howard ran for 238 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.. Ohio State has a better ground attack than the Hooisers. The Wolverines aren't going to be able to control Elliott, who will set things up for J.T. Barrett. 
 I'm not a huge fan of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, even though he has played well lately. He's not good enough to carry the Wolverines if they don't establish at least a semblance of a ground attack, which I don't see them doing. The Buckeyes have an extremely physical line. De'Veon Smith is the Wolverines' starting running back, but he's a grinder not suited to attack a physical defense. 

The Buckeyes rank 30th in run defense and fifth in pass defense. Only two players in the country have more career sacks than Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who has 25. 

The Bucks are horrible this season on defense. They've given up an average of 114 points during their last five games. Milwaukee has yielded at least 103 points per game in six of its last seven games.
Sacramento scored 129 points on the Bucks two nights ago - without DeMarcus Cousins. 
Orlando is below average in field goal shooting, but the Magic have scorers in Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo, who is coming off the bench now. Scott Skiles coached the Bucks before leaving by mutual agreement in Jan. of 2013. So you know he wants this game. 
Jason Kidd's answer to the Bucks' porous defense is to outscore the opposition. Kidd is trying to do this by increasing tempo having point guard Michael Carter-Williams force pace.  

The Bucks have done this the past two games and put up 109 points versus the Pistons and 118 against the Kings. 

Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. 
I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. 
The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. 
I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. 
It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. 
The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio.
Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman. 

The Bucks have the offense to take advantage of Sacramento's 29th-ranked defense that is yielding nearly 109 points per game. The Bucks are coming off a 109-point game against the Pistons two nights ago, the most they've scored since the second game of the season. 
Milwaukee's bench scoring is up with O.J. Mayo back after missing the first 11 games of the season.
The Kings aren't likely to have star center DeMarcus Cousins. If Cousins doesn't play - as expected - the Kings are weakened on both ends of the court. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint against the Pistons while shooting 52 percent from the field. Milwaukee's athleticism can hurt the Kings' too. Sacramento ranks last in defensive field goal percentage. 
The Kings have yet to win in five games without Cousins this season. They are 2-3 ATS without him. Their closest loss without Cousins was by six points. 
The Kings also are facing fatigue issues. This marks their fifth consecutive road game and fifth game in eight days. They return to California after the game so their focus could be off. 

Sacramento is the worst defensive team in the NBA ranking last in opposing field-goal percentage and second-to-last in points allowed per game at 108.3.
The Kings not only play bad defense, but they play up-tempo - a great combination for an over. Rojon Rondo is having a big comeback season. He leads the NBA in triple-doubles and in assists at 10.8 per game. 
DeMarcus Cousins isn't likely to play. This cuts both ways, though. The Kings lose his offense, but become more vulnerable inside.
The Bucks have talked about pushing pace more, which makes sense giving their athletic makeup. They showed a faster tempo in their last game, a 109-88, home win against the Pistons. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint and point guard Michael Carter-Williams played well with an aggressive mentality, something that had been lacking from him previously. The Bucks also have O.J. Mayo healthy to give them a big scorer off the bench. 

Boston is a well-coached, overachieving bunch that can't be taken for granted.
The Hawks aren't about to do that in this revenge spot. The Hawks got pushed around 11 days ago in a 106-93 road loss to Boston. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer had to miss that game due to personal reasons. He's back and has had ample time to prepare since Atlanta last played on Saturday. 
The Hawks go on a three-game road trip immediately following this game. Then they return home to face Oklahoma City and Toronto. So this is a game they need to focus and win. Atlanta has lost four of its last five. But the Hawks are now finally healthy with point guard Jeff Teague back.
Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver were all All-Stars last season. The Hawks are due to start playing better. The Celtics' backcourt lost some of their depth with Marcus Smart out. He is Boston's top perimeter defensive guard. 

Dallas has been better than expected. Credit to Rick Carlisle and veterans Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams. 
However, the Mavericks have match up problems in this game. Their weakness is inside where the Grizzlies are tough even if Zach Randolph remains out. 
Dallas has lost four of five times when surrendering 44 or more points in the paint. The Grizzlies have beaten the Mavericks 10 of the last 14 times, including four of the past five times. 
The Mavericks do not have a good road history when stepping up at 5-17 ATS when meeting an opponent with a winning home record. 
The Grizzlies started slow, but are beginning to come on. If not for a road loss to power San Antonio they would be riding a five-game winning streak. Memphis is the more rested team, too, having been idle since Saturday. Dallas played two days ago losing a tough 117-114 road game to Oklahoma City. 

Indiana is hot. So is Washington with three straight victories. 
I'm getting involved with the Wizards because of the low number, they are home and having underrated Bradley Beal back in the lineup. He makes a difference. 
Indiana is off a couple of blowout victories against the 76ers and Bucks. Now the Pacers are stepping way up in class offensively as the 76ers rank last in scoring and the Bucks are 25th. 
Washington ranks in the top eight in scoring and field goal percentage. The Wizards are playing more up-tempo and I envision the Pacers having problems keeping up especially in the backcourt. Point guard George Hill has missed the last three games with an upper respiratory infection. He's likely to play today, but will be rusty and at a disadvantage going against John Wall.  

North Texas State has made it a high priority to improve its offense. The Mean Green are doing that by using a fast pace tempo. They have two good point guards - J-Mychal Reese and Ja'Michael Brown - and a number of good scorers. 
North Texas opened with victories against Jarvis Christian, 112-82, and Texas College, 110-61. This is North Texas' own tournament so the Mean Green wants to look good. The way to do that is score a lot of points.
Now the Mean Green face Idaho, a much stronger defensive team than the first two cupcakes they played. Still, I see North Texas getting a lot of points at home with their new style. Idaho can score, too. The Vandals have a strong backcourt. They rank 16th in the country in 3-point shooting. 

Aside from the Patriots, the Bengals shouldn't be more than a field goal underdog to any team. The Bengals will be especially fired up to redeem themselves after being upset on Monday night at home by Houston.
This play isn't against the Cardinals. I like Bruce Arians a lot. The Cardinals are normally a play-on team - just not in this matchup at this price.
Arizona isn't helped being banged up in the offensive line and at wide receiver with Michael Floyd and John Brown each questionable. 
The Cardinals have been fortunate to play an easy schedule. Five of their victories have been against foes whose offenses are near the bottom of the statistical rankings. 
The Bengals are solid up and down. They don't have a serious weakness and own a 7-1-1 ATS mark. Andy Dalton is having his finest season backed by weapons at wide receiver, running back and tight end with Tyler Eifert, who has nine touchdowns in the red zone this season. 

Akron has the versatility and 3-point shooters to hang around with Villanova. The Zips proved that in upsetting Arkanas, 88-80, at Arkansas.
Akron is hitting 41.3 percent from 3-point range. The Zips also rank first in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. This combination plus an inflated pointspread make the Zips attractive. 
The Zips also have a proven track record versus strong teams going 12-3-1 ATS the past 16 times when taking on opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

No, the 49ers can't stay within two touchdowns of Seattle. Not with Blaine Gabbert and not down to street free agents at running back. 
Seattle has been dominant at CenturyLink Field and dominant versus San Francisco.
The Seahawks are 15-3 in their last 18 home games with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits. They are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing the 49ers. The 49ers haven't been able to break the 20-point barrier during any of their last nine meetings against the Seahawks, averaging a puny 10.8 points per game during this span. 
San Francisco has been held to 13 points combined during its last three games against Seattle. The Seahawks beat the 49ers, 20-3, in Week 7 outgaining the 49ers, 388-142. That was the 49ers' lowest yardage total in nine years. 
Gabbert is a downgrade on Colin Kaepernick, who was the quarterback in the first meeting. Gabbert lacks pocket presence and doesn't have anywhere near the mobility Kaepernick possess.
Seattle's offensive line finally has shown signs of coming around. The Seahawks are enduring a frustrating season. Look for them to take out their frustrations at home on a hapless foe.
The 49ers have gone from one of the better coaching staffs to one of the most overmatched. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Pete Carroll won't be shy about sticking it to the 49ers. 

The Raiders have a top-nine offense in both yards and points per game average. Derek Carr has emerged as a star with a 21-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. No quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes outside the red zone than Carr. 
Carr can take advantage of a weak Lions defense that gives up 29 points per game, second-highest in the NFL, and is depleted in the secondary. 
Playing inside a dome on artificial turf makes Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray faster and more dangerous for Oakland.
The Lions' offense has shown more signs of life under new offensive coordinator Joe Bob Cooter. The Raiders give up the third-most yards per game and rank 27th in pass defense. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are still a very strong hookup. 
The Raiders' pass rush is going to be down with Aldon Smith getting suspended by the league this week. 

Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game.
Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster.
This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense.
The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans. 

Two straight losses and all of a sudden the Broncos are in the pick range with the Bears? No, no way.
Denver has a vastly superior defense that regains suspended Aqib Talib. The Bears are going to be without Eddie Royal again and possibly Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. 
Look for Denver's offense to pick up with Peyton Manning out of the starting lineup. Brock Osweiler is an upgrade. Manning had thrown the most interceptions in the NFL with an embarrassing 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he was any other quarterback he would have been benched long ago. 
The Broncos play the unbeaten Patriots next week. If they lose to the Bears they would seriously be looking at a four-game losing streak. That's another reason why the Broncos will be going all out here. 

SMU always is worth a strong look when the total is under 60. The Mustangs score nearly 30 points a game while surrendering nearly 47 points per game. They rank 128th in points allowed and 122nd in yards given up. The over has cashed in six of SMU's last eight games. 
Tulane has a good quarterback in Tanner Lee. So does SMU with Matt Davis, who is a dual threat. The Green Wave, though, are giving up an average of more than 34 points a game.

Both of these schools are under teams when it comes to SEC play combining to go below the total in 17 of their last 20 league matchups. 
They also have a history of low-scoring games against each other since Bret Bielema came to Arkansas. Two years ago in Bielema's first season with the Razorbacks there were 41 points combined. Last year, there were 27 combined points.
Arkansas' scoring numbers are skewed and misleading because the Razorbacks have played six overtime periods this season. 

Colorado State has covered 11 of its last 16 away contests and draws the Lobos after their monster 31-24 road upset win against Boise State last week. The Lobos were the toast of the underdog world winning straight-up as 31-point underdogs.
So all week the Lobos have heard about how great they are. That was their first win ever against Boise State. New Mexico happens to be 1-4 ATS following a victory. The Lobos were outgained by the Broncos by 225 yards, but were able to come away with four takeaways. 
On the season, New Mexico has a negative yardage differential while Colorado State is on the plus ledger. This is a case of the oddsmaker getting it right with the better team laying points on the road. The Rams are made stronger by the Lobos in a letdown spot, too. 

The oddsmaker continues to underrate the Magic and he's doing it again in this matchup. 
Orlando has one of the best spread marks in the league at 8-3-1. The Magic are a respectable 6-6 straight-up. The actually could be 10-2 if they had not blown late leads against the Wizards twice, Thunder and Rockets. 
Still, Orlando has won five of its last seven games. The Magic players are pumped to go above .500 for the first time especially accomplishing the feat at home. 
The Magic have really improved their defense under Scott Skiles going from 25th in defensive efficiency to ranking in the top five. 
Orlando draws the Kings playing in their third road game in four days. This could take a toll on fragile point guard Rajon Rondo, who is playing well but logging huge minutes. Sacramento has a poor road history and that's holding up this season. The Kings have yet to win in four away games.
There's a possibility the Kings could be without their second-best player, Rudy Gay. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Kings' last game. 

San Jose State is a bit under-the-radar. The Spartans are more athletic and improved from last season's disastrous season. 
The Spartans beat Montana, 64-61, in their last game this past Monday. Now they draw 1-2 Montana State, which is overpriced according to my power ratings. 
The Bobcats have failed to cover in five of their last six home games. 

Portland is a middle of the road West Coast Conference team that is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games versus Pac-12 teams.
I see the Pilots having trouble in this tough road venue, made worse by high altitude. Colorado is extremely tough at home under Tad Boyle going 72-14. 
The Buffaloes have size, depth and talent despite the loss of several stars from last season. This is a bad early-season foe for the Pilots, who are young in the frontcourt and not settled on a rotation. I don't see the Pilots being competitive against this foe and in this spot. 

Miami has been shooting above its heads. I see the Hurricanes having problems dealing with Utah's powerful front line headed by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and Jordan Loveridge. They can control the boards and keep Miami from running. 
It's not just the Utes' front line I like. The backcourt tandem of Brandon Taylor and Lorenzo Bonam also is playing well. Utah has covered in six of its last eight neutral site games. 

The 76ers' losing streak is now at 22, including 0-12 this season following a humiliating 112-85 home loss to Indiana two nights ago. 
Even the 76ers have a certain pride level - and it has kicked in following that dreadful defeat. 
Philadelphia opens a six-game road trip against Charlotte, an improved club but not a power by any means. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games versus opponents with a losing mark. 
The 76ers have played better on the road where there has been less pressure and no booing from their disgusted home crowd. The 76ers have responded by covering three of their last four away contests. 
During this span, Philadelphia lost to the Bucks by just four points, to the Cavaliers by six and to the Spurs by nine. The Hornets played the Spurs on the road, too, and lost by 20 points.
The 76ers aren't without talent with rookie-of-the-year candidate Jahil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and point guard T.J. McConnell. 

Boise State has experience and star power with Anthony Drmic and Nick Duncan. The Broncos are going to get their points. They are 9-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. 
The Broncos are being underrated too much with this high of a point spread. Arizona suffered a lot of losses from last season's team with just center Kaleb Tarczewewski returning. 
Arizona has had problems with Mountain West teams failing to cover 10 of the past 11 times against them. 

Both of these offenses are under the radar. 
The Jaguars are averaging 26 points during their last five games. Blake Bortles has become a playmaker in his second season. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each rank among the top 17 in receiving yards, the only receiving tandem in the NFL to rank that high. Hurns has scored a touchdown in each of his last seven games and is expected to play. 
The Titans lost their nose tackle, Al Woods, to a high ankle sprain this past Sunday. They also could be down their three top cornerbacks. Jason McCourty definitely is out perhaps for the season. Perrish Cox (hamstring) and Blidi Wreh-Wilson (hamstring) are questionable. They could be limited if they play. 
Tennessee's offense is coming around now that Marcus Mariota is healthy and Mike Mularkey is the head coach. He won't hold Mariota back or keep him from running like conservative Ken Whisenhunt did. Quietly, Delaine Walker has emerged as a top-10 tight end. The Titans' ground game has improved, too, with Bishop Sankey getting far less carries. 
The Jaguars' run defense is down a notch after losing tackle Sen'Derrick Marks to a torn right triceps this past Sunday. Only two teams give up more points per game than Jacksonville, which surrenders 28.3 per game. 
Both offenses won't be holding anything back with the chance of showing themselves off on a rare nationally televised game. 

There is a chance of rain for this game, but very little wind. 

Each team has won three in a row. But I've been more impressed with the Suns. Plus Phoenix is home and has a coaching advantage with Jeff Hornacek over Fred Hoiberg. 
Chicago has defeated the 76ers, Hornets and Pacers, who were missing point guard George Hill, by one point during its winning streak going 1-2 ATS. Derrick Rose isn't expected to play today after spraining his ankle against the Pacers. 
Chicago is 0-5 ATS following a point spread cover. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. They are getting outstanding backcourt play from Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, perhaps the most underrated guard tandem in the league. The Suns' frontcourt should be bolstered with the likely return of Markieff Morris, who has missed the last two games with a sprained knee. 
The Suns have been home for more than a week. Their past three games all have blowout victories against the Clippers, Nuggets and Lakers. While the Suns have been impressive at home, the Bulls have been less than stellar on the road going 2-2 with victories versus bottom feeders the 76ers and Nets and losses to the Pistons and Hornets. 

This is a horrible spot for the Raptors, who went all out to try to upset Golden State last night. Their key players had to log huge minutes.

Now they face the rugged and physical defensive-minded Jazz with less than a full 24 hours to get reinvigorated. Playing in high altitude doesn't help either.

The Jazz have been idle since Sunday and been one of the better teams in the NBA since the All-Star break of last season. They rank No. 3 defensively in the league. 

Orlando is one of the most improved teams in the league as its young talent matures and reaches its potential. The oddsmaker hasn't fully grasped how good Orlando is as the Magic own the best point spread mark in the NBA at 8-3 ATS. 
The Magic are home here and catch Minnesota in a letdown spot.
The Timberwolves upset the Heat, 103-91, at Miami last night. 
The Magic have dominated the Timberwolves winning 11 of the last 13 in the series, including seven in a row at home covering the past five times in those games. 
It's an added plus for the Magic if Victor Oladipo returns to the lineup. 

This is Brooklyn's first home game in 11 days. The Nets just returned from a four-game road trip where they beat the struggling Rockets and nearly upset the Kings and Warriors during their past two games. 
The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. I don't like the spot they are in after being gone from home for so long. The Hawks are the superior team and are not going to take the 1-9 Nets lightly after losing 97-96 at home to Utah this past Sunday.
Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. The spread is low because point guard Jeff Teague may be out. He didn't play Sunday versus the Jazz due to an ankle injury. I'm fine if Teague can't play because Dennis Schroder is a reliable backup. 
The Hawks match up well to the Nets, who lack the necessary rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's vulnerability on the boards. Atlanta has won the past six games in the series, including whipping the Nets, 101-87, in Atlanta on Nov. 4. The Nets couldn't stop the Hawks' pick-and-roll in that game. 

Marist is well balanced, is home and coached by Mike Maker, who coached at Dartmouth for 11 years so he knows that team extremely well.

Dartmouth has failed to cover in 16 of its last 22 games. Dartmouth also is 0-5 the past five times facing an opponent from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. 

Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line.  Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma. 

San Diego State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Utah is a dominant 40-14 the past 54 times at home. 

The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. 
The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. 
The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. 
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS.