The first two games in this series have been won by 1 run deficits and Im betting on another close tilt . SHOWALTER is 20-5 against the money line in home games after 2 straight one run losses in all games he has managed since 1997 with the average rpg diff clicking in at  +0.6 which qualifies on this runline  offering. 

Rangers starter DUNNING is 2-10  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 5-17 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 2-17 against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 4-17  against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Road favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line  +130 to -255) (TEXAS) - after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less against opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games are 11-45 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

Play on the NY Mets to win +1.5 runline 

KELLY has never beaten the Dodgers in his career going  0-10 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 5.26 and a WHIP of 1.614 . Nothing changes tonight as the Dodgers with future HOF pitcher on the hill Kershaw have the edge. Kershaw is 5-1 along with a stingy 1.72 ERA at home this season. 

LA DODGERS are 22-4 SU  in August games this season with a rpg diff of +2.6. 

Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 13-84 L/26 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.8 which qualifies on this run line offering. 

MLB  Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 4-45 L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LAD to win -1.5 runline 

After smashing out a 15-2 win yesterday vs the Royals  Im now betting on major regression here from Seattle.  Note: SERVAIS is 4-16  SU after a win by 10 runs or more as the manager of SEATTLE. 

Seattle starter CASTILLO is 6-11   against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)  CASTILLO is 8-16  against the money line against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record)

MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (SEATTLE) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL), hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games are 7-33 L/26 seasons for. a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC to +1.5 runline 

Minnesota has scored 90 plus points in 2 straight games and with their offense in top form are more than capable of covering this number vs the explosive Liberty. MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  after scoring 90 points or more this season.

MINNESOTA is 15-8 ATSvs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more  of their attempts this season.MINNESOTA is 34-18 ATS  average defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 season. MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - revenging a home loss versus opponent, off an upset win as an underdog are 35-13 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

Hawaii covered 6 of their L/7 games last season and enter here with momentum vs a Vanderbilt program that despite of being hefty favorites , may not warrant such a backing from the lines-makers .  The last 4 times Vandy has been installed as non conference favs they failed each time, and Im betting that will be the case again vs a Rainbow Warriors side that has redemption in mind after an ugly 63-10 opening day  loss to  the Commodores last season. 

VANDERBILT is 0-7 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  home team vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 4-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Hawaii to cover

The Bobcats completed the 2022 season with a 10-4 record, going 7-1 in the MAC conference play, that was a after a slow start--  they won  seven of their final eight games and deserve respect here as underdogs with momentum on their sides. With top tier QB  Kurtis Rourke back to 100% healthy after a late season injury the Bobcats are a side to be feared. The Aztecs will be formidable at home behind what is expected be another strong defensive group, but its their offense that remains less than formidable , and could easily find the sledding tough against a D, that improved significantly as last season progressed. Im expecting a close game but taking the points here looks to be the most  advantageous investment option. 

Play on Ohio to cover

The UTEP Miners have four returning all-stars with the interior loaded with tough veterans to go along with Steven Hubbard at left tackle. they were good last season in protection mode and really helped the running game progress and Im betting they will be even better this season. This is a hard hitting squad thats not easy to play against and must be respected on a short line vs a Jacksonville State side that is new to the FBS. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State might be primed to get a win out of the gate here, but with what my projections estimate is a sub par D, that will probably not come here today.

CFB home team vs. the money line (JACKSONVILLE ST) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, between two teams with 8 or more offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are just 3-22 L/31 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UTEP to cover

Navy's new HC and  former defensive coordinator,Brian Newberry brings respect to the sidelines, after Ken Niuamatolos departure after 16 seasons at the helm of this scholastic gridiron program. I know Notre Dame is the bigger and better brand, but Middies must not be disrespected here as underdogs in this long time series rivalry. Note: The Irish are only 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field vs a military college, and military schools of 20+ or more point dogs have been a bankroll expanding cash cow for their backers producing at a positive 83-39-3 ATS clip the L/43 seasons. With 18 returning starters in the lineup Navy will be well prepared to stay within this number here in Ireland this Saturday. 

Play on Navy to cover

SFs starter and ace of the staff WEBB is 16-7  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)Webb has never lost to the Braves in his career, going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in five starts and Im betting he keeps them in this tilt as well. On the flipside, I know Strider has pitched well for the Braves and did well against the Giants last time he faced them, but now SF has the edge on what to expect from the righty and will make the necessary adjustments. 

ATLANTA is 11-20 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams against a run line of (+1.5, -210) to (-1.5, -255) (ATLANTA) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 7-30 L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Giants on the runline +1.5

COLORADO is 39-104  SU in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons like the TBs Littell, with the average rpg diff coming-in at -1.9. Littell owns a 2.55 ERA with 11 strikeouts and one walk in 17 2/3 innings during this month,  and in the process has posted a solid 0.793 WHIP and deserves respect here vs a Colorado side that struggles on the road especially against righties as is evident by the above trend and the lowly 3.7 rpg production in away tilts. 

TAMPA BAY is 37-9 SU in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Blach whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons with the average margin rpg diff clicking in at +2.3 which qualifies on this this runline offering. Rockies starter Blach owns a ugly  9.00 ERA in two career starts against the Rays. Rinse and repeat on board . 

COLORADO is 2-24 against the money line as a road underdog of +200 or more this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at -3.8.

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line  +110 to +155) (COLORADO) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 14-47 L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to win -1.5 runline 

Miamis starter WEATHERS is 0-7 SU vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with the average rpg diff clicking in at -3. WEATHERS is 1-10 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a rpg diff clicking in at -2.9. Weathers owns a 10.69 ERA in his L/3 starts and is fade material in his current form. 

Padres starter WACHA is 16-1 SU vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with the average rpg diff registering at +4. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (MIAMI) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after a loss by 6 runs or more are 4-47 L/26 seasons with the average rpg diff clicking in at a whopping -4 which easily qualifies on this run-line offering. 

Play on Padres -1.5 runline 

Right-hander Aaron Nola (10-8, 4.58 ERA)  hasn't pitched past 5 1/3 innings in any of his last four starts and is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA during that span, and Im betting things don't get much better for him and his Phillies today.SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3 against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons and the last time they visited the City of Brotherly love came away with a 3 game sweep. SF also beat the Atlanta Braves yesterday and now have momentum entering this tilt. 

Play on the Giants to win +1.5 runline 

The Nationals have won three games of their L/4 and six of their past eight tilts going into a Sundays matchup against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies and deserve respect here as underdogs.

WASHINGTON is 25-19  SU vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season like Wheeler. WASHINGTON is 11-8 against the money line as a home underdog of +150 to +200 this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at - 0.2 in those 19 games, which qualifies on this ATS run-line offering. 

Nats starter WILLIAMS is 16-5 SU in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) WILLIAMS is 22-13  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) WILLIAMS is 17-6  against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 5 starts are 39-19 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (PHILADELPHIA) - average hitting team (AVG  .255 to .269) against a below avg starting pitcher (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, in August games are 12-26 L/26 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors which qualifies on this run line offering. 

Play on the Washington Nationals on the +1.5 runline 

I know Colorados starter Flexen has been in sub par form this season, but he is still a viable hurler with great trending data behind him. C FLEXEN is 14-4  SU vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 17-4 SU vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 9-0 SU vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 15-4 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 20-8 SU line in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) With the White Sox struggling all season long. against righties like Flexen Im betting the home side edge here on this generous runline offering.

BLACK is 41-22 SU in home games after a 3 game span with an OBP of .393 or better as the manager of COLORADO with the average rpg diff clicking in at +1.7. 

 WHITE SOX are 2-9 SU in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season.CHI WHITE SOX are 8-23 SU  line after 4 or more consecutive road games this season.

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +215 to -130) (COLORADO) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or less  over his last 5 starts are 63-28 L/26 seasons for a  69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado to win +1.5 runline 

The Bears have won the L/6 games in this preseason series SU, and according to my projections deserve respect here a dogs vs a Colts side that 2-14-2 ATS L/18 preseason home games. I know Bears QB Justin Fields is not expected to play this game, but despite of lines-makers lack of respect of the rest of Bears QB group, Im willing to take the points on what to me is exaggerated line favoring the Colts. Also during joint scrim-ages with the Colts there were some cheap shots taken on Fields and now I expecting a more motivated version of the Bears to show up here in this preseason affair. 

NFLX Road teams (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record in the preseason are 35-13 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Toronto lost the first game of this series by a 1-0 count and now Im projecting a big rebound. 

Torontos starting pitcher today BASSITT is 15-0   against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with the average margin of victory coming in at 5 rpg. 

TORONTO is 11-2 SU after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season with the average margin of victory clicking in at +2.3. 

SCHNEIDER is 38-19 SU in road games in the second half of the season as the manager of TORONTO with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.1. 

MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (CINCINNATI) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less), after a game where they had 4 or less hits are 7-32 L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Blue Jays to win -1.5 runline 

The last time Minnesota visited Seattle back on June 29th this season, the Lynx came away with a 99-97 win as 3 point dogs, and Im betting it will be close again but the pendulum will swing back the other way in favor of the home underdog Storm in the rematch. 

SEATTLE is 19-4 ATS L/23  after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less shots than opponent. SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games this season. SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Underdogs (SEATTLE) - revenging a home loss versus opponent, off a win against a division rival are 39-20 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle to cover

  The Browns have  have faired well in preseason football of late , garnering a  14-4 SU  record  since 2017, and are currently on a  6-0-1 ATS run  when getting points in the underdog role.  .Kevin Stefanski has a viable preseason record of 5-3 SU during his tenure as Browns head coach and seems to take even scrimmages very seriously . I know the Browns will probably not start their starting QB but the battle between  Kellen Mond and Dorian Thompson-Robinson should make for aggressive outing from a Cleveland side that wants to get their offense rolling. Note:  Eagles are 0-5 SUATS L5 preseason home games and are just .2-9 SU/ATS in Thursday tilts. 

NFLX road sides after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 42-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games  dating back 31 seasons. (This happened last time out in a 17-15 loss to Washington)

Play on Cleveland to cover 

George Kirby the Mariners starter enters this game in top form having garnered a 0.86 ERA along with a 0.571 WHIP in his L/3 trips to the hill. Here against a very inconsistent Royals offense Im betting he dominates again in a conclusive victory. 

Mariners starter KIRBY is 16-5 (  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.7. 

SEATTLE is 31-16against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff registering in at +2.2. 

KANSAS CITY is 6-25  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3. 

MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (KANSAS CITY) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL), hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games are 6-32 L/26 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win -1.5 on the Run-line 

Dodgers starter KERSHAW is 41-9  against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season in his career with the average rpg diff coming in at +2.1. (Team's Record) He gives LAD a strong opportunity to extend their current red hot win streak of 9 games that has seen the Dodgers 7 of those 9 victories by +2  or more runs! 

Milwaukee is averaging just 3.2 rpg vs LHP this season via a nasty looking .219 BA and are fade material here vs future HOF pitcher Kershaw. 

LA DODGERS are 30-11 SU  vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons like Miley with the average rpg diff clicking at +2.8. 

LA DODGERS are 34-7 SU in August games over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff recorded at +3.4. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less) (NL), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL) are 72-11 L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors withe the average run per game diff clicking in at +3 which qualifies on this run-line offering. 

Play on Dodgers -1.5 runline 

Cubs starter Hendricks' in has last  three starts  is 0-2 along  with a bloated 6.19 ERA. In 12 career starts against the White Sox, Hendricks is 2-6 with a 4.77 ERA and is fade material here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. 

White Sox right-hander Touki Toussaint  pitched a scoreless inning of relief against the Cubs on July 26 and has a 2.45 ERA against them lifetime in three relief appearances and Im betting he will keep his team in this game for as long as he is on the hill. 

CHI WHITE SOX is 5-0  against CHICAGO CUBS over the last 3 seasons at Wrigley. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 0-12 SU in home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO CUBS are 0-9 SU in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO CUBS are 2-13  SU  in home games against AL Central opponents over the last 3 season.CHICAGO CUBS are 3-11 SU in home games after allowing 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the White Sox to win +1.5 runline 

Both these teams are struggling  as is evident by their LAST 10 GAMES: Rockies: 3-7, .186 batting average, 5.18 ERA, outscored by 20 runs

Diamondbacks: 2-8, .224 batting average, 4.87 ERA, outscored by 21 runs. I know Arizona has won 2 straight, but the way their offense has struggled they do not look like viable favs, especially on this runline offering in a place (Coors Field) where the home side (Rockies) play their best ball. Yes, even with Merrill Kelly on the hill for the Dbacks. (after-all this is the launching pad known as Coors field and no pitcher is safe in this environment) If Kelley does not start the desert snakes overall woes in this venue will be become evident. Bottom line the Dbacks cannot be trusted to cover this runline offering. 

BLACK is 77-51  against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season as the manager of COLORADO.

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +215 to -130) (COLORADO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP  2.000 or more  over his last 5 starts are 33-8 L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado to win on the +1.5 runline 

San Francisco and Las Vegas participated in joint practices ahead of their preseason opener Sunday in the desert, and in scrim-ages  the Raiders defense forced multiple interceptions from Purdy, and other 49ers QBs and Im betting they continue those efforts here today. The 49ers listed Lance and Sam Darnold as their No. 2 quarterbacks in this game, and Im betting both struggle against a hungry group of Raiders. Defense trumps offense here today. 

The Raiders 6-0 SUATS L6 preseason HGs and must be respected here getting points  vs the SF 49ers. 

Play on Raiders to cover 

The Liberty enter this game as the No.2 seed in the WNBA while Indiana has the worst record in the league. However, because of this according to my projections the lines makers have over compensated for this discrepancy , which gives us value with what will be a motivated underdog with little left to play for other than a big upset . The Liberty are just 1-4 ATS L/5 and are consistently being over rated on the line.

Play on the Fever to cover 

Boston after some inconsistent play in July and early August have now won 3 straight games and have cashed 4 of their L/5 for their backers. With the Bosox facing struggling Motown starter Manning who has garnered a 0-3 record along with a 9.18 ERA in his L/3 starts they once again have an inside edge on conclusively coming out of this tilt with a victory. Meanwhile, Bostons Brian Bello remains a solid pitching proposition to back, as he has garnered a stable 3.08 ERA at home in Fenway this season.

BELLO is 11-3 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) with a +2.3 rpg diff . 

BOSTON is 11-1  against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games this season with a average rpg diff clicking in at +3.2  which qualifies on this Run-line offering. 

DETROIT is 4-19   against the money line against AL East opponents this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3 which qualifies on this Run-line offering. 

Play on Boston to win -1.5 runline 

The Liberty had a huge DD win vs Vegas last time out- while shooing over 50% from the field and now Im betting on immediate regression in a letdown situation. Meanwhile, Chicago After a 3 game win streak lost as favs to the up-trending Lynx and will now be motivated to perform against a top tier team that has had issues covering this season, covering only 6 of 14 home tilts. 

Chicago has covered 7 of 12 away affairs.

NEW YORK is 6-13 ATS versus sub par foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season. NEW YORK is 7-16 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 6-15 ATS  in home games after a game making 11 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons.

CHICAGO is 15-6 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 30-13 ATS L/43 in road games versus teams who average 45 or more rebounds/game on the season after 15+ games .

 WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - off an upset win as an underdog are 15-41 L/26 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago to cover

WNBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - after a game where a team made 50% of their shots or better against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 45% or higher are 19-45 L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams (NEW YORK) - good 3PT shooting team (35% or more) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), after a game making 11 or more 3 point shots are 28-58 L/26 seasons for. ago against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Atlanta's rookie fire baller Elder has looked a little gassed of late as is evident by  allowing 20 earned over his past 23 innings. He will be supported by a tired bullpen that has worked alot of innings recently.Elder has garnered a ugly  7.71 ERA over his last five starts. Advantage Pittsburgh. 

Pittsburgh won the opener 7-6 on Monday and must not be underestimated as they group looks fearless at the moment in the spoiler role. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ATLANTA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA= 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, hot hitting team - batting .280 or better over their last 20 games are just 19-32  L/26 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pirates to win +1.5 runline 

The Guardians squeezed out a 1-0 victory yesterday vs the Jays, and Im betting on another close game tonight , which gives us an edge with this runline offering. 

TORONTO is 25-31 SU against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons like the Guardians starter Allen. 

Jays starter GAUSMAN is 5-10 SU when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record) CLEVELAND is 45-32 SU vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better over the last 2 season with a  -0.2 rpg diff. 

MLB Road favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +130 to -255) (TORONTO) - after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less against opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games are 11-42 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Toronto are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games when playing on the road against Cleveland and have lost 5 of the L/7 meetings in this series. 

Play on Cleveland Guardians +1.5 on the runline 

Minnesota and Chicago are evenly matched according to my current power rankings even with home court advantage factored in for the Chicago. It must be noted that the Lynx has covered 5 of their L/6 road games, while the Sky have failed to cover 4 of their L/6 home tilts. Advantage Minnesota.

MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS  in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 season

WNBA Home teams (CHICAGO) - good 3PT shooting team (35% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), after a game making 11 or more 3 point shots are 28-57 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Three of the L/4 meetings in this series have been decided by 4 points or less. 

Play on the Minnesota Lynx to cover

Seattle after a bad run has now won and covered 3 of their L/4 games and have momentum entering this tilt against a Connecticut side they will be in revenge mode against. Combination of up-trending and pay back on the agenda make  the home side  viable side to back against the spread . 

CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS  after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better this season.

WNBA Underdogs (SEATTLE) - revenging a loss versus opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SEATTLE) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, off an upset win as a road underdogs are 36-13 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover

 Right-hander Freddy Peralta (7-8, 4.46 ERA) goes to the hill for Milwaukee in the series opener today. Peralta registered a win in his last outing, striking out seven and allowing three runs over six innings in the Brewers' 6-4 victory at Washington lat week. Peralta , back on May 2 vs the Rockies   struck out 10 in six innings on the way to a no-decision and once again according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up very well here  and is a viable hurler to back at home where the Brewers have won 6 of their L/7 vs the Rockies. Note: Colorado has only averaged 3.9 rpg on the road this season, and have scored 2 or less runs in 3 of their L/4 overall. 

COLORADO is 2-20 SU as an underdog of +200 or more this season with the average rpg diff registering at -3.6. 

MLB Road underdogs with a opening money line of +200 or more (COLORADO) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or less over his last 3 starts (Lambert), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 1-37 L/26 seasons for a go against 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.3 which easily qualifies on this run-line offering. 

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 to win 

 The Diamondbacks have lost 21 of their last 28 games and enter Sunday's action 1 1/2 games behind Cincinnati for the final NL wild-card spot and Im betting they will haver issues salvaging a win from this 3 game set today. I  know their ace Zac Gallen has pitched well this season, but he is just  2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in 12 road starts and is being over rated here. Note: The Twins will return fire with a top tier hurler who suffered injury problems last season but now looks rehabilitated as is evident by making six starts for Saint Paul, where he went 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA while earning the International League Pitcher of the Month honors for July. Hes the wild card here and that makes us taking the runline a viable wagering opportunity. 

ARIZONA is 4-15  against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season.

ARIZONA is 3-14 SU vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season.

MLB Road teams against a run line of (+1.5, -210) to (-1.5, -255) (ARIZONA) - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 4-38 L/26 seasons for a 91% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota +1.5 on the runline

The Mercury have been their most competitive at home this season, and Im betting they have the edge again vs a side they matchup well agains the Seattle Storm (6-20). I also expect the the Mercury will come out strong at home in Brittney Griner’s return who was off a mental health break.

 Mercury when playing at  Footprint Center own a   +1.4 rating ,  ranking   sixth in the WNBA. The Storm,  have a road  net rating of -4.2.  Mercury are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Play on the Mercury to cover

 Two pitchers KCs Alec Marsh (0-5, 6.75 ERA) and  Philadelphia left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-3, 2.66) are hurlers who cant find the win column. Nothing comes easy for these two throwers and that that lack of being able to get across the finish line will factor into this tilt. 

It must be be noted that Kansas City recorded its seventh straight win with a 7-5 victory in the series opener on Friday and with that positive momentum on their sides  Im betting they wont easily be defeated here tonight in Philadelphia by the Phillies. 

QUATRARO is 6-0  against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season as the manager of KANSAS CITY.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (PHILADELPHIA) - starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or more over his last 5 starts are 134-150 L/26 seasons for a sub par 47.5% conversion rate. ( This Runline offering matches up well with this SU data base gem)

MLB team against a 1.5 run line (KANSAS CITY) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 5 starts are 67-32 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC Royals +1.5 runline 

Storm enter this game on a  5-1 ATS run  in their last 6 games overall and have covered 4 of 5 vs an above .500 side like the  visiting Wings . Im now betting the Storm keep this game close against a side  that recently played all out hoops in a 104-91 loss vs the WNBAs top team Vegas, and will now be in an emotional  letdown spot . These circumstances could easily see the Wings start slowly tonight. Note: I know the Wings can really light the board up in run and gun mode, but they also lack defensive responsibilities and are vulnerable to being upset when in regressionary mode like Im betting they will this evening. DALLAS is 3-11 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.

Play on Seattle to cover

The Royals have now won 4 straight games via. a up-ticking offense that has scored 27 runs in those 4 tilts , and have momentum entering this contest vs a very inconsistent NY Mets side in the 2nd game of this series. After the  Mets shipped away top reliever David Roberston along with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander you can bet on some negative down energy in the Mets dugout today making them fade material.

NY METS are 19-28  SU vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season like Ragans . NY METS are 15-19  against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season. SHOWALTER is 35-60  against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season in all games he has managed since 1997.

KANSAS CITY is 29-19 SU in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 32-22  SU in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB team against a 1.5 run line (KANSAS CITY) - after sweeping a 3 game series against a division rival, in an inter-league game are 41-16 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC Royals to cover +1.5 on the run line 

NYL have really been lighting up the scoreboard of late . but the Liberty D, has also been lit up and because of this have failed to cover  3 of their L/4 games. The Liberty have a great won loss record, but their wins don't seem to come all that easily, as is evident by not covering in 8 of their L/10. Considering LA has momentum entering this tilt winning 2 of their L/3 - I like the home sides chances at competing here and getting us the cover. ( The Liberty beat the Sparks by a 87-79 count back in NY a couple of days ago, and now Im betting on a even closer game here)

NEW YORK is 4-11 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in 3 straight games this season.

NEW YORK is 6-13 ATS  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more  of their attempts this season. 

Liberty are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.Liberty are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Liberty are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Liberty are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Sparks to cover

Both these teams are examples of futility, however according to my power rankings the superior side in this matchup is the visiting Storm who have covered 4 of their L/5 overall and in the most  recent past have had good results against the Fever. Also after a 4 game road trip Im betting it will take time for an inconsistent side like the Fever to get used to home cooking again. Advantage Storm. 

SEATTLE is 6-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons including 3-0 L/3 visits to Indiana. 

WNBA Underdogs (SEATTLE) - revenging a home loss versus opponent, off an upset win as an underdog are 33-12 ATS L/5 seasons for. a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Seattle to cover 

The Braves took a conclusive 10-7 win vs the Brewers yesterday and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation manifesting itself here again today. ATLANTA is 44-20  against the money line after a win this season.

ATLANTA is 11-1 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like the Brewers Teheran. 

Meanwhile Braves fireballer Bryce Elder (7-2 , 3.32 ERA) while not pitching all that well of late, is more than capable of bouncing back here against a very inconsistent Milwaukee Bucks offense that is averaging just 4 rpg on the road this season via a .232 BA. 

The Braves are batting .277 at home this season while averaging 5.9 rpg. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 4-44 L/27 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.1 rpg which qualifies on this RL offering. 

MLB team against a 1.5 run line (MILWAUKEE) - after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR, in July games are 14-40 L/4 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win -1.5

The Lynx are off a big win last time out by a 97-92 win vs the Mystics, and have momentum entering this tilt here vs a tired NY Liberty side in a rare back to back situation. 

MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  in road games after scoring 90 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Liberty are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.

Home favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - averaging 42 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are 51-96 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Lynx are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Play on Lynx to cover

 The Padres will send out Seth Lugo (4-4, 3.72 ERA) to face the Pirates' Johan Oviedo (3-11, 4.77) on Wednesday. I know Oviedo has lost his past eight decisions  but he owns a stable 3.23 ERA in five starts in June and I expect he will keep his team in this game against a Padres side the Pirates have had success against lately winning 4 of the L/5 meetings. 

SAN DIEGO is 9-15 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season.

MLB underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (PITTSBURGH) - poor hitting team (AVG.250 or less) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 32-6 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pirates +1.5 on the run-line 

The Guardians will be the first below .500 team Marsh (0-4, 6.20 ERA) has gone against. He made his debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 30, then started against the Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees -- and  lost all 4 starts However, this offense he goes against here today is very light hitting and Im betting he gives them all they can handle, which will help keep his team in this game . 

In 100 games that the Guardians have played this season, they have a 0.00 rpg diff . 

MLB team against a 1.5 run line (KANSAS CITY) - team with a terrible OBP (.310 or less) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL) are 34-9 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line  +165 to -135) (KANSAS CITY) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less ) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season are 36-12 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.'

Play on the Royals +1.5 run-line 

CALGARY is 2-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.CALGARY is 2-9 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons.

CFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CALGARY) - off a win over a division rival, in July games are 17-50 ATS L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Indiana has been mostly competitive this season, and have now covered three straight and have momentum entering this game off a upset victory last time out. Meanwhile, NY despite of a great won loss record,  have been over rated by the lines-makers of late, as is evident by failing to cover 5 straight and 6 of their L/7. With that said, according to my power rankings the Liberty are once again  tagged with an  exaggerated  ATS offering from the books giving us value taking points with a viable underdog. 

WNBA Home favorites (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, in May, June, or July games are 6-27 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog are 26-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. ( The last time these teams played on July 12 the Liberty took a 95-87 ) 

Play on Indiana to cover 

Luzardo  (8-5, 3.34 ERA the Marlins starter has seen his team go  13-7  when he starts. The southpaw has won his past three decisions and hasn't lost since June 12 and gives his team a great opportunity to end their current 7 game losing streak here today in convincing fashion. Colorado has averaged just 3.7 rpg on the road this season

 MLB Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season are 70-10 L/5 seasons for a 88 % conversion rate including 8-0 100% this season  with a rpg diff clicking in at +2.7 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Miami Marlins to win -1.5 

Atlanta has won 6 of their L/8 overall and three straight homes games and deserve respect in their current form. WNBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 42-15 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Storm have lost the last 7 games while the Aces have won 3 straight and remain the top team in the WNBA. However , my numbers suggest this line is bloated and should be closer to -12 giving us alot of value with the underdog. SEATTLE is 26-12 ATS L/28  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or more ) .  Aces are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Hughes is 13-4 ATS  off a road loss by 10 points or more as the coach of SEATTLE. I know Seattle has been beaten up by the Aces, but Im betting the Storm find a way to stand up here, and get some respect back. 

Play on Seattle to cover

The Astros  dominated a pair of earlier three-game series against Oakland, sweeping both by a total score of 31-9 and Im betting on more of the same action here tonight in Oakland. 

OAKLAND is 6-37  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season with average rpg diff clicking in at -3.9 which qualifies on this run line offering. 

OAKLAND is 8-28 against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season like Houstons starter France, with the average rpg diff registering at -2.5. The As have only averaged 3.3 rpg this season at home.

Im betting Astros starter (France) who was supported by 27 total runs, in three recent starts has the edge. He  went 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA in those  outings and deserves respect on this run-line offering as he is supported by a bullpen that owns a solid 3.67 ERA on the season. Meanwhile, As starter left-hander Hogan Harris (2-3, 6.51 ERA),   have seen his team lose in each of his last five appearances, three of which were starts. In the other two, Harris served in a bulk-innings reliever role. The rookie has gone 0-3 with an 8.03 ERA over that stretch and is fade material at this point of his career in a starters role.

MLB underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (OAKLAND) - terrible offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), playing on Thursday are 5-29 L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston -1.5 run-line 

After a fast start to their season the Rays showed some regression just before the all star break, but they did take a 10-4 win in their final game before the break against the Atlanta Braves and have both rest and some momentum entering this game after yesterdays tilt was cancelled.

 ampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow (2-3, 4.10 ERA) and Kansas City's Alec Marsh (0-2, 7.00) are scheduled to face off in the opener. With the pitching advantage going to the Rays. Glasnow struck out 12 of the 19 batters he faced in five innings during the most recent outing against the Royals, back on June 25 and gets my support today against a very inconsistent Royals offense. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 93 games (+8.15 Units / 7% ROI)

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line -120 to +115) (TAMPA BAY) - good offensive team (5.1 or more  runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA= 5.70 to 6.20)-AL, on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors are 32-7 L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to win -1.5 

Atlanta (60-29) has won three of its last four games, 12 of its last 14, and has won 11 consecutive series dating back to Arizona, June 2-4. The Braves lead the NL East by 8 1/2 games over the Miami Marlins and deserve respect here on this run line offering vs a very inconsistent Chicago White Sox club. 

Atlantas starter Morton  has won his last four starts.  His last time out he pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed one run on four hits, two walks and six strikeouts in a win over Tampa Bay.Quote: "Charlie was really, really good and very efficient," Atlanta manager Brian Snitker said. "He just keeps amazing me. The ball was coming out of his hand really good." End Quote. Morton has made three career starts against Chicago, going 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA and get the nod again in what Im betting will be a conclusive Braves victory. Note: 

The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 17 games at home (+14.05 Units / 72% ROI)

ATLANTA is 19-3  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.4 which qualifies on this ATS offering. ATLANTA is 11-0   against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff registering at +3. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (CHI WHITE SOX) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after a loss by 6 runs or more with the average rpg diff clicking at +4 which easily qualifies on the is run-line offering. 

Play on Braves to cover -1.5 run-line 

Dallas enters this tilt having  won four of five, while the Lynx just had their 5-game win streak abruptly come to an end vs the leagues most explosive side ( Las Vegas). Dallas ranks 6th in the standings while Minnesota ranks 7th. According to my power rankings these teams are pretty evenly matched with home court advantage being the difference maker in my betting opinion. Thus getting points here makes for a viable wagering opportunity on a plus line offering. 

Lynx are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Lynx are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Lynx are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Lynx are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.

Wings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Wings are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.Wings are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Play on Lynx to cover 

I know Seattle has not played well of late, but after an ugly 93-73 loss vs the Connecticut Sun last time out, and some of the statements issued by the coaching staff, a much better effort must be expected and a subsequent cover .  NEW YORK is 4-13 ATS  in home games after scoring 75 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.Hughes is 12-3 ATS  in road games after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher as the coach of SEATTLE.

WNBA Home favorites (NEW YORK) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games are 10-29 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle to cover

The Seattle Storm have struggled  defensively, but some hard work in practice recently and a more determined defensive posture will help them get back on the right track. I know the Sun play their best hoops at home but this line is still slightly bloated according to my projections, giving us value with visiting dog.  The Storm have been very competitive away from home as is evident by garnering a   8-3-1 ATS mark in their last 12 games. Sun are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Play on Seattle Storm to cover 

Dallas enters this tilt  with a  8-8 record on the season and have been very competitive overall. They have scored an  average of 84.3 points per game (4th in the WNBA) while hitting 41.3% from the field and deserve respect here as big DD dogs.  Yes, I know how well the Aces have performed to this point in the season, but the number being offered here offers value and is vulnerable. 

My projections make this line closer +12 which gives a full possession edge on this current offering from the sports books.

Wings are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Las Vegas.Wings are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Play on Dallas Wings to cover

Indiana heads into this contest with a record of 5-11 for the campaign and according to my projections should be  3 point underdogs in this spot play situation thus giving us value with the short home fav Minnesota. 

Fever are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Lynx are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Play on Lynx to cover

Colorado is only averaging 3.7 rpg on the season, and against a quality pitcher like France should once again have problems with run production.France  pitched seven shutout innings in his previous trip to the hill against the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, allowing four hits and two walks while fanning two in a 14-0 win.Meanwhile, Right-hander Chase Anderson (0-3, 6.50) will start the series finale for the Rockies on Wednesday and is projected as cannon fodder for a Houston team that starting to hit on all cylinders having won 6 of their L/7 overall. Anderson has lost each of his last three starts ,recording a ugly  a 21.21 ERA in the process.Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. American League West.Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (COLORADO) - after a game where they had at least 10 less hits than their opponent, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games are 9-38 L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston Astros runline -1.5 

Dallas has lost 5 of their L/7 but did pick up a win last time out  in Phoenix and have momentum entering this game vs Washington. DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Now with revenge on board for a 75-74 loss the Mystics earlier this season, Im betting on a big time effort in revenge mode from the host side. DALLAS is 16-7 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Advantage Dallas. 

WNBA Home teams (DALLAS) - revenging a close loss versus opponent by 3 points or less, with a losing record are 111-64 ATS L/26 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Mystics are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Dallas to cover

Vegas enters Saturday’s matchup as  the top team in the WNBA standings with a 14-1 record after a big time win vs the NY Liberty last time out in a hard fought 91-89  that should easily have the Aces in a letdown spot. after a shooting 58% from the field. With that said,  this line is a little bloated according to my current power rankings giving us nice value with the visiting Connecticut Sun who are no pushovers themselves as they were the only team to hand the Aces a defeat this season. 

Sun are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (CONNECTICUT) - top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games, on Saturday games are 29-7 L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Aces are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.

Play on Connecticut Sun to cover

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Phoenix has a win-loss record of 2-11 so far this season and not in good form. 

Mercury are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.PHOENIX is 0-7 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or better of their attempts this season.

Fever are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and  are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.

Fever are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.NDIANA is 6-0 ATS  in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Sides is 6-0 ATS  in road games after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of INDIANA

WNBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=76 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 10-39 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My  WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Left-hander MacKenzie Gore (3-6, 4.02 ERA) will start for the Nationals against Padres' right-hander Seth Lugo (3-3, 3.86). After getting shutout yesterday Im betting on an immediate bounce back today in what my projections estimate is a multiple run or more victory. Note: Gore is on a  five-decision losing streak, and the Nationals have lost nine of the past 10 games that Gore has started. Add another negative number to that tally today. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (SAN DIEGO) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 54-7 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.9 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on San Diego to win -1.5 

Padres bats have exploded in their L/2 trips to the diamond procuring 23 runs , and Im betting their red hot bats will continue thier top tier work today vs a Washington side that has allowed 8, 9, 5, and 13 runs in 4 of their L/5 tilts and allowed an average of 6.3 rpg in their L/7 games overall with the average rpg diff clicking in at 3.2 rpg (1-6 record). note: MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (WASHINGTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked 1 hitters or less each of his last 2 outings are 13-74 L/26 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors with the the average rpg diff clicking in a t +2.3 which qualifies on this run line offering. 

Padres to win -1.5 runline 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

 Brewers starter Miley (4-2, 3.28 ERA) is of a  5-0 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out and has momentum behind him entering this tilt against a Guardians side Im betting he matches up well against. Meanwhile, Cleveland will reply with  right-hander Shane Bieber (5-4, 3.51 ERA) in the series opener. Bieber has not looked as consistent this season as he did when the won the Cy Young award  in the 2020 season. Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record. Guardians are 7-15 in their last 22 interleague home games.

MILWAUKEE is 20-10  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons

CLEVELAND is 4-11against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MILWAUKEE) - NL team with a poor SLG (.400 or less) against a very good AL starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less), cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 5 games are 34-18 L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home teams (CLEVELAND) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL), hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games are 10-25 L/26 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL), hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games are 5-30 L/26 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brewers 

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Lynn, is in. a big time funk as is evident by having allowed 17 earned runs over his last three starts spanning  (14 innings), and overall has have a very disappointing start to his season. He is getting hit hard ,ranking in the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Mariners starter Bryce Miller is projected to have a decent game here vs a  White Sox offense that ranks 24th in baseball in runs per game scored.

Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Lynn..

White Sox are 7-18 in their last 25 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Miller. White Sox are 6-20 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series.

Play on Seattle to win

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.

The Rays after a very fast start to their season, are suffering some regression entering this game, as is evident by having lost 3 of their L/4 including the first two games of this series against a Oakland As side that has now won 7 straight, and on a proverbial opposite trajectory to their opponents after a disturbing start to their current campaign. The As have momentum on thier sides, and it seems all aspects of their game pitching/hitting are all in high gear at this time which Im betting gives us value on this runline offering. 

Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the As Medina .Rays are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League West.

TAMPA BAY is 10-17 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Oakland to cover +1.5 runline 

Florida looked like they were completely out of gas last time out, and may of used their last bit of energy in a comeback attempt in game 4 as they were down 3-0 before a couple of what Ill call  fortunate goals got them to the point of possibly pulling off mild miracle. Now exhausted and an emotional letdown state after a great play off run, Im betting their coming into this game on empty. Not a good scenario for them, against a Vegas Knights team that will play like wild men in attempt to hoist Lord Stanleys Cup over their heads.VEGAS is 7-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA when playing in Vegas lifetime.

Play on Las Vegas to win -1.5 puckline 

 My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating back 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Its obvious the Miami Heat are in full regression mode, after a great play off run. Truth is the Heat were a very average team during this campaign, while their opponents the Nuggets have been for the most part very consistent and a top tier group all season long. This particular matchup has proven to me that the Nuggets are the superior side at both ends of the court, and the game 2 hiccup the Nuggets suffered was basically a rust issue after a long lay off leading into these Finals. Now the fresher of both sides, and the more talented side will Im betting get the job, done here at home in front of what will be a lively crowd with the NBA championship on the line.  DENVER is 22-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season.Malone is 30-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games as the coach of DENVER. Nuggets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest. MIAMI is 19-31 ATS after playing a home game this season. Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

 Denver to cover 

Im betting the Rockies will catch the Red Sox in an emotional letdown spot after a come from behind victory last night in extra innings against arch rivals the NYY. BOSTON is 1-8  against the money line in home games in an inter-league game this season. Both these hurlers Seabold and Paxton have pitched decently of late and both have seen their L/2 trips to the mound decided by 1 run and with that said, I expect a closer game than the line might indicate. Since we are getting +1.5 runs here on plus money, Im feeling confident about the viability of this wager. 

Red Sox are 1-10 in their last 11 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Seabold. 

Play on Colorado on the +1.5 runline 

The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Then came game 3 where the rust was completely off as the Nuggets dominated a Heat side that is now suffering regression after a strong play off run.   Still the fresher of both sides and according to my power rankings the superior side  , the Nuggets get the nod again as road favs in game 4.  From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.13 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 4 victory out and  grab the cover in the process.

MIAMI is 10-22 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

DENVER is 21-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season. DENVER is 29-12 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - averaging 45 or less rebounds/game on the season, after a game being out-rebounded by opponent by 20 or more are 14-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Now with this being their 3rd game off extended rest, Im betting we will see the Nuggets at their optimal setting, and with the added incentive of a bounce back performance look like very viable short favs on the road today according to my overall power rankings. From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.34 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 3 victory out.

NBA  team (DENVER) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. ( Miami won 111-108)

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 44-12 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NBA Road favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver has won and covered their L/3 most recent visits to Miami. 

Play on Denver Nuggets to win/cover

 My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play on the Sky to cover

The Nuggets are still well rested , while the Heat  must still be feeling some exhaustion after their grueling 7 game series, with the Celtics and than immediately  leaving for the Rockies to play in the Mile High City. This is never an easy venue to play in and nothing will change tonight for a Heat side, that according to my current power rankings is over matched . Hey Im not knocking the Heat, as they are a talented hard working group, but the physical toll of play off hoops Im betting will take its toll on them vs a very fresh Denver side, that has had one game to get  the rust off, and now could easily be even  more explosive in game 2 of this series. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS  in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season. MIAMI is 0-11 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.Heat are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Denver is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 in this series including 4-0 SU/ATS as hosts. 

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 13-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a  84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

 My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Western Conference - NBA Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 1

The Miami Heat after a dominating  game  7 game win and  series clincher  against the Celtics    will now be in an emotional letdown spot on the road in the high altitudes of the Mile High City. Im betting the combination of a playing a grueling 7 game series, and than taking a long trip from the East to the West will take its toll on the Heat here for game 1 in thin air environment that is never easy for opposing sides to play in. MIAMI is 0-10 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season. Note: In Denver 38 home games this season the average ppg diff clicks in a +10.1 . 

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - in non-conference games, off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog.are 33-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Denver is 6-0 SU /ATS L/3 seasons vs the Heat including 3-0 SU/ATS at home.

Play on the Nuggets to cover

The Braves  behind  top tier pitcher Elder (3-0, 2.01 ERA) look like viable bets here tonight on the run-line vs a downtrodden As side. The right-hander's ERA ranks third among all qualified major league pitchers. Oakland ended an 11-game losing streak with a 7-2 victory on Monday, giving the A's just their 11th win this season and sixth at home.  Im betting on them having immediate regression here today and for the Braves to be primed for a big win in redemption mode. Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

OAKLAND is 1-19 SU vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with the average run per game diff clicking in at +4 which easily qualifies on this run line offering.OAKLAND is 8-41  SU vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.7. 

Play on Atlanta Braves -1.5 to win 

 My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play on the Fever to cover

The Heat took the first 3 games of this series while the Celtics have won the last 3.  But the Heat finally came to life in the last 5 min of the last game, and narrowly lost 104-103. Im betting the Heats regression is now over and  will give what must be an exhausted Boston side all they can handle here in game 7. Teams like Boston that were down 0-3 in a NBA play off series are 0-149 lifetime . 

NBA team (MIAMI) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion. 

.Play on Miami to cover 

The Heat after an amazing play off run and top tier game 3 performance in this series , looked to have hit their peak and now regression has reared its ugly head. With the Celtics now in top form the Heat are in trouble, and Im betting on at least one more meltdown here tonight by the home side  in Miami against what my power rankings suggest is a  superior Celtics  side.Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Celtics own a 5-2 mark in their L/7 trips to Miami.BOSTON is 14-6 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. MIAMI is 8-21 ATS   after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Play on Celtics to cover

The Heat played their best game of the play offs in game 3 of this series and after an amazing run during the post season,  they finally showed some regression as they suffered a down effort in game 4 losing by a DD deficit  . With that said, Im betting on further regression here to the mean as the Heat begin to play down to true talent levels against a Boston side that is overall superior in talent and also in desperation mode as they look to avoid elimination and extend this series.  Quote:"Yeah, everybody was in good spirits, everybody was upbeat, and as cliche as it sounds, we just tried to take it one game at a time," Tatum said. "We didn't play well the first three games, we didn't deserve to win, but we didn't want that to define us, define the season."We've still got a long uphill battle to go. But (Tuesday) was a good start. Just to try to carry this momentum toward Thursday." End quote.

Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

The Heat are playing their best hoops of the season in the play offs, and their peak performance of entire play offs was last time out a they  shot a blistering 56.8 percent from the field (46 of 81) and 54.3 percent from 3-point range (19 of 35) and  now have a strangle hold on this series.A resounding and over powering 128-102 victory now has me expecting a immediate regression and for a soul searching group of the Celtics to leave everything on the floor tonight. and get us the cover. 

MIAMI is 0-9 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.

Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 36-12 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Celtics felt the effect of their grueling 7 game series vs the Sixers in the previous play off round, and looked a little tired against a Miami Heat side that is currently playing their best hoops of the season. The  talented and deep Celtics subsequently lost the first two games of this series at home, and are now in desperation mode making them a dangerous opponent for the Heat. Note: BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 9-18 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Celtics are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record

NBA team (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 48-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

My WNBA basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating back over 27 years) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

WNBA Road favorites (CHICAGO) - horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 10-24 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on the Mercury

Down 2-0 the senior laden Lakers have their backs against the proverbial wall and now need a win desperately and Im betting will now play all out hoops at home where they are undefeated in the this seasons play offs. Denver is a fine team but when experienced super star ballers like James and Davis feel cornered look out. LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA LAKERS are 10-1 ATS  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Coming off a loss during this campaign, the Lakers are 28-16 ATS and 5-0 in the playoffs.

Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.

DENVER is 4-13 ATS ( in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.DENVER is 11-23 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.

Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

In the first game of this series, the well rested Heat took advantage of a emotionally drained  Boston team that  had previously  took  part in a grueling 7 game seres  . Now a fire has been lit under the proverbial butts of the Celtics and now more rested and rejuvenated mentally Im betting on a big bounce back zig zag theory win and over. 

Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.

 NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 5-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The senior laden Lakers were off playing a grueling series against the Golden State Warriors previous to the the first game of this series and came out flat in the first half. In that game 1 tilt here in the Mile High City the Lakers tried to comeback from a DD deficit at half time but failed on the comeback attempt despite of a huge effort that Im betting will have them very tired here .  James and Davis are great players but their durability must be questioned at this stage of their career, making the exhausted Lakers fade material  in game 2 of this series.

Denver has won all their post season games this season at home and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation as well as an all important cover .

LA LAKERS are 17-33 ATS  when trailing in a playoff series since 1996.

DENVER is 16-7 ATS  in home games off a home win this season.

  NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 33-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

The well rested Miami Heat take on a Boston Celtics side off a grueling 7 game series vs the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat have saved their best hoops of the season for the play offs, and played the Celtics tough recently winning the last two matchups between these teams during this campaign with a 98-95 victory at home back on Jan 24th and a 120-116 road win back in December. Now very fresh and ready to continue their assault the Heat catch the Celtics in a emotional and physical down mode after their huge series win vs the 76ers.BOSTON is 0-9 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. MIAMI is 32-18 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MIAMI is 24-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 47-22 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

The Nuggets are the No. 1 seed, and have been for most of this season , and have home-court advantage. They were 34-7 at Ball Arena in the regular season and have won all six home playoff games going into this tilt   with the Lakers. Im calling on a rinse and repeat situation and for the Nuggets to have the edge on this ATS offering at home where they have won 4 of their L/5 matchups vs the Lakers. 

LA LAKERS are 5-13 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS  after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 13-2 ATS  in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. DENVER is 21-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 36-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on the Nuggets to cover

Dallas HC Peter DeBoer is the man to back in Game 7s- as he has a 100% success rate  in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since game 1 of this series 5 straight games have been decided by 2 goals or more and tonight Im betting on another  value puckline result this time favoring the SU fav and home side the Dallas Stars. 

Play on Dallas to win -1.5 

It's do or die for both sides here in game 7 and Im betting on a hard fought affair that goes down to the wire. The Sixers have already proved they can win on the road in this series and have proven their resilience  as well. Note: Two of Philadelphia's three victories in the series came in Boston. key quote: "If I have to go to war, Game 7 in Boston, I would want to go with this group," Philadelphia's Tyrese Maxey said. "I know we've got some fighters. I know we've got some resilient guys. I'm ready to get it on."

PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The Celtics got the desperation win last time out, but maintaining that energy Im betting will be very difficult. The Celtics have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 after a victory. The Sixers have covered 5 of their L/8 trips to Bean-town. 

Play on the Sixers to cover

The Warriors shot 51.1 percent from the field  last time out in a win and outrebounded the Lakers 48-38. Im betting on immediate regression here against what will be a more motivated Lakers group here tonight. The Lakers Davis played his least amount of min in the play offs in that last game, but should be more rested for this key tilt. What was troubling was the Warriors   14 turnovers and tonight Im betting under pressure that those ugly numbers will contribute the Warriors downfall.  

GOLDEN STATE is 3-12 ATS  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.GOLDEN STATE is 14-32 ATS  in road games this season.LA LAKERS are 12-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover