The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some  pretty good teams, even though these said teams are  still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights  maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a  viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible.

UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Make no mistake despite of losing last week to Air Force , Colorado State are still the most explosive team in  the Mountain West Conference this season, and I'm betting we see them at their very best this week in rebound mode. They have won 3 of their L/4 on the road, and actually did not look completely out of place vs Alabama in their lone road loss ( 23-41) Meanwhile, Wyoming off a huge revenger last week where they exerted a great deal of energy in a merciless DD win vs New Mexico, by a 42-3 count,  could easily find themselves drained and susceptible to being beaten up on themselves this week. I mean these kids play like their hair was on fire and won't be surprised if their spent.

COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games over the last 2 seasons.

 Road favorites like Colorado State  - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are a long term good bet going 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection

UNLV is off a huge upset win vs Fresno State last week, winning by a 26-16 count, as 21.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs looked completely drained after pulling off an upset of their own vs San Diego State the previous week, and Rebels took advantage of the situation.  Now in another emotional letdown scenario  I'm betting its UNLV's turn to suffer . Look for a Hawaii team that despite of struggling on offense and  losing to pretty good San Diego State  program ,actually did not look as bad as I thought they would, and will now be well prepared to make a game of this after a facing last weeks very physical defensive opponent. What I' saying is look for the Warriors very capable offense to tee off in a big way here , vs a D, that allowed Utah State to pound them for 52 points the week before last.

UNLV is 2-13 ATS  L/15 off a road win against a conference rival .

CFB road team Hawaii  - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 23-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ole Miss might not get a lot of respect from bettors this week, as they have now lost 5 of their L/6 overall, including a 38-37 loss to Arkansas last time out, but according to my power rankings and cross reference matchup stats, the Rebs actually matchup well against this type of opponent. Meanwhile, Kentucky is off an emotional win vs long time nemesis Tennessee last week, and could easily be in a letdown state coming into this tilt vs a hungry opponent. It must also be noted that despite of their 6 wins the Wildcats have been out  yarded by 106 ypg in their L/3 games and are a very over rated team at the moment.

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games losing SU by just under 20 ppg. OLE MISS is 10-2 ATS  L/12  in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  In KENTUCKY's L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  6.25  or more yards/play they have been outscored by a 43 to 22.8 average score. HC Stoops of Kentucky  is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse .

CFB Home favorites like Kentucky - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 11-33 ATS L/25 seasons for  a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Iowa State is the real deal, behind one of the better defenses in the Big 12 as they proved last week in a win vs ranked TCU by a 14-7 count as 7 point home dogs. They also proved a lot to me in that  tilt, and I'm betting they still have enough fuel in the tank to slow West Virginia down this week.  Meanwhile, W.Virginia  despite a explosive offense are a team that lacks a solid defense, and has allowed 34, 31, 35, 36, and 50 points in their L/5 games and according to my own projections Iowa State will have a similar plus offensive out put here, which gives them a great chance  for a SU upset considering how staunch their D has been.

IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att  dating back to last season.IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS  L/15 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .W VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB team like West Virginia  - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons or a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

CFB road team like Iowa State  - after going under the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 51-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover

Old Dominions defense is atrocious having allowed 53,38,58,35,35, 35 points respectively which makes them weak DD favorites. I know Charlotte may not inspire bettors, but CFB  home team vs. the money line Old Dominion - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 13-40 SU, for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.( lost a heart breaker N.Texas by a 45-38 count and are now in a letdown scenario)

OLD DOMINION is 4-14 ATS L/18 after allowing 37 points or more last game .

Penn States undefeated season came crashing down last week in the worst possible way, as they fell apart late and lost to Ohio State 39-38. I know a lot of pundits expect them now to come out very upset and ready to fire on all cylinders, but its never easy to get up off the proverbial matt after being body slammed and having the wind taking out you. Now in an emotional letdown scenario I expect a strong Michigan State defense to make life hard on the Lions in this spot. It must also be noted that the Spartans will also be in a big time revenge mode for being destroyed by Penn State last season by a 45-12 count. (Mich State is 9-1 SU L/10 and  11-1 ATS L/12 in Big 10 revenge tilts)

PENN ST is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  285 or less yards/game .PENN ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 0-6 ATS  L/6  off a road loss.MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7  in home games in the second half of the season during the last few seasons.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Penn State  - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 12-38 ATS on the rebound for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the Michigan State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas Tech enters this game against a very competitive Kansas St football program having lost 4 of their L/5 and  3 straight games by double digit deficits , and in my opinion from the out set of this season have been over rated by the prognosticators. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder's well coached group must be respected, and after resting a lot of starters last week in a win vs instate Rivals Kansas, will now be primed to play a top tier brand of physical football. Take the points.

KC HC Snyder is 31-19 ATS L/50 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

CFB road team like KState - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 92-42 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi State is off one of their biggest wins of the campaign last week on the road, against Texas A&M and will now be in a letdown situation and in  a double jeopardy look ahead scenario as they prepare to play Alabama next week.  The goal of Miss State , is to stay healthy for their big game, and I'm betting they play down to their competition this week, while subbing in a lot of backups. Also UMass has suddenly come to life,  winning two straight while compiling 1619 yards of offense in their L/3 games overall while averaging 38.3 ppg, and are a viable cover group in this spot considering the circumstances. I'm betting on Umass moving to 7-0 ATS L/7 vs SEC sides.

Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection

Indiana coach Tom Allen knows know exactly what's coming his way this Saturday when his Indiana Hoosiers go against the fourth-ranked Wisconsin . QUOTE:
"They have just a stable of running backs," Allen said. "They keep rotating them in and pound you, pound you, pound you and try to beat you into submission in the course of the game. It's three tight ends at times and two tight ends most of the time, I-formation, and hunker right at you. END QUOTE:

That's exactly the recipe for success Wisconsin will use once again  this week  vs Indiana.

I know Illinois look disinterested last week in a sleepy win vs Illinois, but now after that short snooze and the season winding down and the possibility of play off spot ,you can  bet they will be awake and ready to make  a statement  vs a Indiana side that not built to withstand the physical pounding they are going to take today behind a D, that has allowed only 12.9 ppg game.

Wisconsin has owned this Indiana football program in the recent past winning 7 straight times by an average score of 58-14 and I am betting on  a repeat performance is on today's agenda.

WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 winning by an average of 18.2 ppg.

CFB Road favorites Wisconsin - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 51-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Celtics are showing their depth and talent level after starting the season 0-2 without their newly acquired star Hayward. Since Hayward was lost for the season do to injury this team has rallied to win six straight entering the matchup with their hosts the  Thunder.   Boston is tied with the Orlando Magic for the best record in the NBA with a 6-2 record and must not be disrespected here as underdogs. Tonight I'm betting it will be the Celtics highly rated defense , that has held opponents to an average of 93.8 points per game to be the catalyst behind a cover against what has sometimes been an explosive yet inconsistent Thunder offense. Yes, I know the Thunder are also suddenly playing some strong D this season, but I'm still not sold on their stopping abilities against this kind of side, and I'm betting if they can come out of this with a victory it won't come easily. After three straight grueling road games, the Thunder now come home, and a lot of times teams take time to acclimated to being at home and can start slowly, which I feel will be one of their issues tonight.

BOSTON is 30-16 ATS  L/46 in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season  with the average margin win or loss SU being decided by 1.8 ppg. BOSTON is 33-18 ATS  L/51  in road games and  is 13-4 ATS L/17 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5.

Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and have covered 7 straight road games dating back to last season.Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Home teams like the Thunder - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are just 11-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. (Anomaly or nor still a useful trend)

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 1 unit reg selection

Dan LeFevour will earn the start at quarterback Friday when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers travel to Calgary for the regular-season finale against the Stampeders. He matches up very well against this type of team, and I'm betting he will move the ball against a top tier Calgary team and help us get the cover here.

It must be noted that the Bombers are a cover machine:

WINNIPEG is 11-1 ATS  L/11 when playing against a team with a winning record.  WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games versus excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better - after 9 or more games and 8-1 ATS  L/9 versus good offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game.WINNIPEG is 7-0 ATS  L/7 after playing a game at home this season.

Bombers HC O'Shea is 14-2 ATS  L/16 in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 .

Winnipeg got beat 29-10 in the first meeting between these teams back in July 29-10, but are now in a better flow and look like viable underdogs in this spot.

Underdogs or pick Winnipeg - revenging a loss versus opponent, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 58-20 ATS L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors .

Play on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Jazz struggled with their offense out of the gate as they got acclimated to some new faces , and I  was concerned with their cohesiveness, but now I'm beginning to see progress, behind Ricky Rubio this season. He is a career 37.8 percent shooter, but he is shooting at a 43.7 percent clip through the first eight games of the 2016-17 season and fits in very well with this group in Utah. The Jazz (5-3) have won three straight and are averaging 104 points during that run with  Rubio  averaging 25.3 points on 48.9 percent shooting during the winning streak. I'm expecting more of that same flow tonight, as well as staunch Jazz defense to stand tall vs a Toronto side that according to my early season power rankings is  being over rated, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they showed their true abilities last time out allowing Denver to put 129 points on the board.. Another thing I noticed about the Raptors is that the presence of big man Jonas Valanciunas. seems to slow this built for speed team down , which is something I'm keeping in eye on for future bets on the Raptors. Tonight Utah has the edge as short home chalk.

UTAH is a long term good bet as hosts as their  171-127 ATS record as a home favorite of 6 points or less would indicate.

Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.Jazz are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall  after a nice run that saw them winning 5 straight games  behind a nasty D that allowed a total of 37 points ( 7.4 ppg) , looked asleep at the proverbial wheel last week at home in a loss to Florida International. Now wide awake after that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to respond in a big way vs Lane  Kiffins high flying Florida Atlantic football program  a side in a letdown situation after taking a big win against Western Kentucky last week by scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter for a 42-28 win.

Marshall is 4-0 SU L/4 meetings in this series, and I'm betting they cover and possibly pull off a su upset here.

MARSHALL is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return .FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS  in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs. FLA ATLANTIC is 9-22 ATS L/31 as a home favorite and 1-12 ATS L/13.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 47-17 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Tonight Navy enters this game against Temple in a nasty mood after two straight hard fought losses derailed their undefeated season. Add to that revenge for a loss to Temple last year in the ACC title game  and you have a Navy side that will be dangerous and merciless. It must be noted that this is not the same smash mouth Temple football program of the last few seasons, under new HC Cosby and  despite of being feisty and well rested off a bye I'm betting  they won't have big enough gonads to stop their fire breathing opponent in this spot. 

Temple when off a bye is 1-9 ATS L/10 SU/ATS vs a conference team looking for revenge. Navy is 5-0 ATS on the road this season.

CFB Road favorites like Navy - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Temple - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Northern Illinois and Toledo arguably the two best teams in the MAC will go head to head this Thursday night in the Glass Bowl. Toledo has been on a roll of late winning and covering three straight, but their biggest weakness remains their defense, which was evident when they allowed Tulsa and Miami Fl 52 and 51 points respectively  and I'm betting the Huskies do some damage here this week via a balanced attack, while their own staunch D that allows just 18 ppg, will slow the Rockets explosive offense enough to keep them within striking distance of outright upset here this evening.  It must also be noted that NIU is 27-3 SU and 25-5 ATS L/30 on the road in MAC battles and the series visitor has not failed to cover in the L/6 confrontations. It must also be noted NIU is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS on the road vs a side off a win like the Rockets are and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5  away  facing a team on a 3-0 SU/ATS run.

N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry.

CFB Home favorites like Toledo - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are a long term bad bet going just 61-141 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

The offensive explosive Portland  Trail Blazers who  are averaging 107.6 points per game while presenting a consistent threat from the perimeter are a team that must be feared when getting points because of their abilities to keep games close and or just completely blow out their opponents. Yes, their has been some inconsistencies with their scoring, as was the case vs the raptors last time out only scoring 85 points,  but I am expecting at some point this season, that they will ramp things up and go on a big run, maybe even starting tonight against Utah. Meanwhile, their opponents biggest problem is getting their offense in gear, which just won't be an easy feat with the type of personnel they have on the floor as they rely on their D, to keep them moving in a positive direction.  As stated The Jazz D, is staunch but the offense has scored 97 or less points in 5 of their 7 games and against this type of team, their in trouble according to my cross reference matchup stats.

UTAH is 1-9 ATS  L/10 in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread .PORTLAND is 14-2 ATS  L/16 after a combined score of 185 points or less ( The Blazers lost to Toronto by a 99-85 count )UTAH is 7-18 ATS  L/25 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) .

NBA team vs the money line like Portland  - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 27-8 SU for a 77% conversion rate L/21 seasons.

Play on the Portland Trail Blazers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Raptors  are looking good and coming off an impressive 99-85 win in Portland on Monday night and once again look like viable betting  options in this spot vs a Denver team coming home off a grueling 4 game eastern road trip, and  now on tired  legs will now take time to acclimated to being back home. That's not a good omen for their chances against a staunch Raptors D, that is playing very physical disciplined  ball at the moment.

 Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and get the nod here.

NBA Favorites like Denver  - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are just 47 -93 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection

DeMarcus Cousins after being named the player of the week , came out in his last game asleep at the proverbial wheel something that is not uncommon for the highly sensitive and inconsistent super star. But I'm betting he will be up for this game tonight, which makes the Pelicans a good bet here.

New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry was understandably upset by his team's lack of effort against Orlando in a DD loss as 8 point favs at home UOTE: .
"We sucked," he said. "I wish there was another way to put it. We didn't close out shooters, they drove the ball any time they wanted to. It was lack of effort. We have to establish consistency. We're not going to be a good team until every night we know what we're going to get." END QUOTE:


New Orleans went 3-0 against Minnesota last year, and I'm betting this version matches up well against a Wolves team that has just played some very grueling close games, winning 2 in a row by 3 points vs Ok City, and Miami, and could easily be in a let down state here tonight.

MINNESOTA is 11-24 ATS L/35 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) .

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like New Orleans - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less is 46-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Oklahoma City Thunder top star Westbrook looks like he is coming to life and taking over the lead of his team, as was evident last time out  as he had 12 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists for his third triple-double of the season in a 101-69 smash down of the Bulls on Saturday in Chicago. Yes, there is other top tier talent on the Thunder, but its become obvious early on this season, that this team is at its optimal best when he  leads the way. QUOTE: "That's special. He's a special player," said Paul George, Westbrook's new teammate. "He's solidifying himself early as a Hall of Famer." END QUOTE . I'm betting well rested Westbrook shows his best stuff again tonight, against a short handed Milwaukee group playing without Center Greg Monroe.

MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS  L/15  in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games  and 6-20 ATS  26  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games.Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Northwest.Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA  Favorites like Oklahoma City - after allowing 75 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 27-7 ATS for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Nets after looking good in the early going of their current campaign, have suddenly began a quick decent, and  showed little energy in a blowout road loss Friday to the New York Knicks and then got absolutely creamed in the third quarter Sunday by the Denver Nuggets on their way to a loss. Some of the blame goes, to D'Angelo Russell  who  has been hampered with a nagging knee injury, and he did not play well in the last two games. Things don't look to get better here, as Russell is still not 100% and now the Nets have to deal with the loss,  of Quincy Acy, who leads the team at 52.4 percent from 3-point range as he nurses a injury for the second straight tilt.  Also  add to that two way specialist DeMarre Carroll is also questionable for the Nets  and you have a short handed group that will once again have problems finding their mojo. I know their opponents Phoenix may not instill confidence in bettors, but  the Suns are looking much better since new HC Jay Triano took over and have won 2 of their L/3 and more importantly have covered all three times.

Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. Western Conference.Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 1 unit reg selection

Pelicans, enter this home game having won three of their past four, and will now go against a under rated Orlando Magic team that has own 4 of their 6 games this season . The Pelicans and Magic according to my own power rankings matchup very well against each other. I know the Pelicans looked really good last time out in a upset DD win vs the Cleveland Cavs , but now in an emotional let downs state I'm betting their susceptible here to being upset themselves. Note: NEW ORLEANS is 2-13 ATS  L/15 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog.

Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pelicans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Orlando has won 3 of the L/4 meeting sin this series straight up.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The Celtics enter this game  having won four in a row winning by a  96-90 count vs Miami last time out. The Boston D, has looked good but the offense has been choppy, and I'm betting they struggle tonight against a Spurs side that can play physical defensive hoops. Note:  BOSTON is 3-16 ATS  L/19 after 4 or more consecutive wins.

Meanwhile, the Spurs,  are off two straight losses including a 97-94 loss to the Indiana Pacers last time out. Both teams might seem like their headed in the opposite direction, but the Spurs despite of injuries to K.Leonard and T. Parker are still a veteran laden team with a lot of talent and must not disrespected, especially with one of the best coaches in the NBA on the sidelines ( Popovich).

San Antonio has won 11 straight meetings since its last loss to the Celtics in 2011, with six of those  victories having come at TD Garden.

BOSTON is 22-42 ATS L/64 in home games against Southwest division opponents.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Spurs - good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 41-14 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 1 unit reg selection

NY Knicks behind Guard Tim Hardaway Jr.  who had 34 points, and Kristaps Porzingis who finished  with 31 points and 12 rebounds looked explosive in a win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. This is in my opinion a better team than they were last year with Carmelo Anthony in the lineup. There are less distractions and the pundits don't expect much from them. Which is sometimes a good thing. Tonight  in top form against a Denver Nuggets team I'm betting they matchup well  getting points here on their own home floor.

DENVER is 9-22 ATS L/31 off a road win.
Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Detroit Lions are very well rested and coming off their bye week as they prepare to face the  Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field on Sunday night. The Lions really showed me something before their bye , never giving up and almost coming back from huge DD deficit against the Saints in New Orleans. They looked tanked in that game early on , like I expected them to be, but somehow they found the energy to make a game of it,  in never say die fashion which was impressive to say the least. That tells me something about this team and I'm going to back them here tonight getting points. I know the Steelers are a fine team, but no team is infallible in the new NFL, as was the case when their stud veteran QB Roethlisberger’s threw five-interceptions in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville, three weeks ago. Yes, I also know Matt Stafford the Lions QB , has not performed all that well of late, but with some rest I expect the gifted QB to be at his best in this spot and get us the cover even though he will only have one key downfield  target in Marvin Jones as  WR Golden Tate is dealing with a shoulder injury . Take the points.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

NFL Home teams like the Lions  - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 33-11 ATS L/10 L/10 years, for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Lions - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 25-6  L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

After watching the Nets first few games its become painfully obvious that their defensive abilities are atrocious , as is their rebounding work ethic, as was the case last time out vs the NY Knicks losing by a 107- 86 count while being out rebounded by a 55-34 edge on the glass, including 19-4 on the offensive side . Thus far on the season , the Nets have allowed an average of 117.3 ppg, and I'm betting  their in big trouble today, thanks to horrid lack of two way basketball.

HC Malone of Denver in his L/12 games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game  has seen the average margin of victory for his team come by 7.5 ppg. In game expected to be high scoring  game, a 5 point margin of victory is not out of the question, even for a road team laying lumber.

BROOKLYN in their L/19 against Northwest division opponents  have lost by an average of 9.6 ppg.
NBA Road favorites like Denver - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

After watching the Nets first few games its become painfully obvious that their defensive abilities are atrocious , as is their rebounding work ethic, as was the case last time out vs the NY Knicks losing by a 107- 86 count while being out rebounded by a 55-34 edge on the glass, including 19-4 on the offensive side . Thus far on the season , the Nets have allowed an average of 117.3 ppg, and I'm betting  their in big trouble today, thanks to horrid lack of two way basketball.

HC Malone of Denver in his L/12 games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game  has seen the average margin of victory for his team come by 7.5 ppg. In game expected to be high scoring  game, a 5 point margin of victory is not out of the question, even for a road team laying lumber.

BROOKLYN in their L/19 against Northwest division opponents  have lost by an average of 9.6 ppg.

NBA Road favorites like Denver - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New England Pats enter this game off a hugely emotional win vs the Atlanta falcons last week, and will be in a letdown situation this week, vs a Chargers team that I feel is starting to peak and show a lot of promise as was evident last week in a 21-0 victory over Denver, which was their third straight victory. The Chargers in their 7 games this season, have been very competitive and have lost only one game by more than 7 points and that was to KC.  Today I expect they will once again stay within striking distance of the Pats and get us the cover.

LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS  L/9  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game LA CHARGERS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better and  6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season.

Road teams like the LA Chargers  - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less ) against a team with  1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-16 during the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the Oakland Raiders pulled off an miraculous upset vs the KC Chiefs with under a minute left on the clock and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation. What was surprising was how badly the raiders had been playing previous to this as was evident by losing 4 straight games, and how average they looked all night before the big play got them a victory. I'm betting they fall back into a state of mediocrity here, vs a Buffalo side that has won 3 of their L/4 games, what has been a solid overall defense, that before last week had not allowed more than 20 points allowing an average of 14.8 ppg in 5 games. I'm betting on the Bills D once again to be the catalyst behind a win and cover in this spot.

OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS  L/8 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog .

Favorites like Buffalo - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-13 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State after staring 6-0 this season, have fell on hard times thanks to becoming easy to read as they just consistently pass the ball to RB Rashaad Penny. Now they go against a Hawaii side that owns the No#.128 ranked pass efficiency D in the nation , and I expect the Aztecs will finally open up the play book and start looking downfield for bigger gains  and a much larger point production output. I also expect their own D, to stand tall here and give the one way passing game of the Hawaii Warriors some huge problems in what I'm betting will be a conclusive win.

San Diego State has owned Hawaii in the past going `18-3 ATS L/21 meetings and smashed them last season 55-0. I know the Warriors are off a bye week, but they are just 1-6 ATS with rest L/7 and are over matched by a superior team that needs a win badly and that's not a good omen for them getting any kind of revenge here tonight in paradise island.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS  L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record with the average margin of victory ringing in at 28.1 ppg and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better winning by an average of 27.7 ppg. HAWAII is 1-12 ATS  L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games. 

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Both these  teams Philadelphia and Dallas have just one win on the season entering Saturday night's game at the American Airlines Center. The Sixers are off blowing a late lead to Houston and losing by a 105-104 count on  a buzzer beater. It's never easy for a young group like this to shake off the effects of that type of defeat, and could easily effect their confidence in this game. Add to that the 76ers are expected to play without the services of one their most talented young stars, No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, and things are not looking all that bright. Also , add to that the fact Philly's  Coach Brown who continues to have talented guys like Jahlil Okafor on the bench for long stretches, because the  kid can't get his head on straight . Instead he is playing the less talented backup Amir Johnson.  Quote:I'm playing Amir ahead of him and that's just the situation," Brown said, according to the Inquirer. "(Okafor) comes in and his head is good, his spirit is good and he and I talk all the time. But that is the bottom line: He is not in the rotation." END QUOTE:  . This kind of drama , makes for a bad energy in the Sixers dressing room which translates into sub par on court performances. I don't want to get down on this very good Sixers side, because its early in the season, but things could unravel here quickly. As far as tonight is concerned, I like a hard working Dallas team , behind Harrison Barnes and rookie-of-the-year candidate Dennis Smith Jr., and the veteran presence  of Dirk Nowitzki and other veterans to get us to the promised land and deliver to us a winning ticket.

76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS  L/27 vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents . Dallas has won 11 straight meetings here at home in this series.

NBA Favorites like Philadelphia  - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. are 16-47 ATS for 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kentucky enters this game against downtrodden Tennessee off a demoralizing loss vs Mississippi St last week by a 45-7 count. These young men are not like pros and don't easily get up off the matt when slapped around in that type of fashion, and a hangover performance by the Wildcats will I'm betting  be the theme  here this Saturday. Meanwhile, on the flipside, I really don't think that Tennessee is as bad as the pundits think they are. Yes, they got beaten up on by Alabama last week and Georgia 3 weeks again in ugly fashion, but a lot of other teams who get respect were also stepped all over by these top tier SEC teams. Prior to the Alabama game Tennessee stood tall vs South Carolina losing a 15-9 heart breaker that they had chances to win, and must not be underestimated vs a slightly over rated Kentucky football program that the Volunteers have virtually owned over the years. This is actually a game that Tennessee can with SU, and I think the team as a whole knows it and needing a win  badly ,  will play with fire this week in what I expect will be a cover.

In the last 20 games in this series, Tennessee has won 19 of 20 meetings SU with the lone loss coming by a 10-7 score back in 2011 at Kentucky.

TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS L/46  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better like KU.KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  L/6 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.

Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kentucky.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - lower tier  team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are actually good long term bets going 34-12 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is a tilt, where my own power ranking systems suggest and outright win by the visitor (New Mexico) vs an over rated side ( WYOMING).  ( Linesmakers agree with my assessments, as does early sharp money) The Lobos run heavy  style of play very much matches up well against a Cowboys team struggling to score. Ball control and clock consumption, are the keys here for New Mexico who took a played a very good Colorado State football program close last week losing 27-24 covering as 10 point home dogs. Last season, Wyoming was clobbered by the Lobos (56-35), and despite of a revenge scenario being in play are just not built to be successfully against this type of team. I'll ring the bell here and expect the visitors to win and cover.

NEW MEXICO is 26-11 ATS  L/37 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry .

CFB Home underdogs like Wyoming - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 11-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team like New Mexico- excellent rushing team ( 4.8 YPR or more) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 41-14 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

I am finally a believer in Miss State ,  after last weeks non empathetic DD beat down at home of Kentucky. The Bulldogs only two losses have come to Auburn and Georgia who I consider as two of the top three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is no where near the level of those  teams according to my power rankings despite of recent wins/covers.  Meanwhile, Miss State now in a upward trajectory and currently  playing with a great deal of confidence and now forming into top gear look very capable of taking out a Texas A&M squad that has a history of not performing well off a bye week as HC Sumlins 2-9 ATS record with rest would indicate.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-2 ATS L/16 after playing a game at home. MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a cover as a double digit favorite .TEXAS A&M is 1-9 ATS  after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS L/6 after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game.TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 in the second half of the season dating back to last season and have a negative long term ATS history in the second half of the season going 9-23 ATS L/31.

TEXAS A&M is 9-23 ATS L/32 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging  5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

 CFB road team like Miss State  - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 23-2 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Mississippi State to cover 1 unit reg selection  

These teams are dead even in the Big 10 with 1-3 records and 4-3 records overall. The difference maker is that PJ Flecks Gophers are the superior defensive side. That's not a good omen for a Iowa side with the 126 ranked red zone offense in the nation. It must also be noted that Minnesota has not failed to cover in their L/15 attempts as Big 10 road dogs of 4 points or more and that HC Fleck is 13-3-1 ATS in his L/15 roadies vs.500 or better opposition. With revenge on board for their only home defeat last season to the Hawkeyes, I'm betting their motivation and energy will also be a deciding factor vs a side that many not have to ability to challenge them effectively after losing a heart breaker in OT last week to Northwestern.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after playing 2 straight conference games .

CFB favorites playing as hosts like Iowa off one loss- exact  in OT  are 3-15 ATS L/18 when facing a winning avenging opponent like Minnesota.

CFB Home favorites like Iowa - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 36-74 ATS for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon and Utah are both teams trying to come out of slumps . Both have lost 3 straight. Both are desperate for a win, and I'm betting we are in for a close one here, with the points In my betting opinion ending up being golden . Look for Ducks super star RB Royce Clayton and the Ducks home field crowd energy to lead them to cover and be the difference maker . It must be noted that in the past the Ducks when on a 0-3 SU/ATS run have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS vs a side off  consecutive losses and repeat and rinse of this historical precedent is on Saturdays agenda. Also HC Whittingham of Utah is just 1-6 ATS L/7 off consecutive losses. Also for a league wide CFB historical data base: CFB  home team vs. the money line like Oregon - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 26-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oregon Ducks to cover 1 unit reg selection

UMass has been playing some decent ball of late, and been putting a boatload of points (50x2) on the board, as was the case in recent back to back games against Ohio and in their first win of the season last week vs a weaker than expected Georgia Southern program. Despite of that, I just don't believe that these young men are quite ready to take down, a Appalachian State football program that knows how to win , and I will be fading UMass in this spot as +3 point home dogs. Remember this is a Minutemen side that has lost to Coastal Carolina, struggling Old Dominion and inconsistent Hawaii this season. Also thanks to the Minutemen recent surprising offensive explosiveness will have the full attention of a Mountaineers side  that has only two losses this season vs Georgia and Wake Forest by 1 point, which diminishes Umass chances at catching their  opponent napping, and  for a upset under dog win/cover.

APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

Mountaineers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.Minutemen are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.

CFB Underdogs of  3-3.5 to 10 points like Mass- after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian St to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Air Force for the most part has been a very competitive team with a explosive offense all season long, and must not be underestimated here in this spot vs a strong looking Colorado State football program . The Falcons took San Diego State and Navy down to the wire, teams that my own power rankings suggest are similar to Colorado States and are off conclusive back to back wins vs UNLV and Nevada. The Falcons did not even look out of place vs power 5 side Michigan losing 29-13 and staying close almost till the end. So as far as today is concerned I'm betting we have good value taking the points here with a team, that can run and gun with the best of teams, and capable of beating you SU or via the back door cover.

Air Force HC Calhoun is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better)  Air Force 25.1 Opponent 29.3.

CFB Road underdogs like Air Force - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 81-34 ATS the L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these sides could easily be college football poster boys for futility , with 1-7 records. But according to my own cross reference rankings, San Jose State has recently shown more of an upward trajectory than BYU , and more all overall improvement, giving a decent Fresno State program a run for their money covering in a 27-10 loss, and playing decently in Hawaii losing 37-26 as 17 point dogs. Today I'm betting this young group will once again stay close enough for a cover or pull off the SU upset vs a BYU side that should not be a -13.5 point favorite vs anyone in the FBS. Take the points.

SAN JOSE ST is 28-12 ATS  L/40 when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less).BYU is 2-10 ATS  L/12 in home games versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing  230 or more rushing yards/game.BYU is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in all lined games this season.BYU is 2-11 ATS  L/13  in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.

CFB Road underdogs like SJ State- poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 44-12 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Virginia fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and got crushed by Boston College ending an impressive 4 game winning run. Actually BC has been surprisingly offensively explosive, behind an already staunch D,  so I'm not being to hard on Virginia. Actually I expect the Cavaliers will bounce back this week, and cover and possibly spring the upset vs a Panthers side they matchup very well against, especially from a coaching perspective behind Bronco Mendenhall who I have a great deal of respect for. Meanwhile, HC Narduzzi is 4-12 ATS  L/16 in home games, has in my opinion mishandled a pretty good looking ( at least on paper) Panthers side. with that said,  I'm fading Pittsburgh here at home as favorites.

Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.Cavaliers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road gamesPanthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Panthers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.

PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

CFB home team like Pittsburgh  - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 21-54 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against  conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is one very inconsistent team. There is a load of offensive talent, a lack of concentration , and a coaching staff that seems to be at the mercy of a group of young men who can come out and rock a stadium with explosive play or put you to sleep with a less than motivated performance. A few examples of this were, on display in Toledo earlier this season in the Glass Bowl against one of the MACs best teams the Rockets, taking part in a 54-51 blockbuster , almost pulling off the upset, and than in Houston taking out a decent Cougars side by a 45-17 count as DD dogs. Note:( SMU loss to Houston 35-22 in their meeting with them.) Two other tilts saw the young men from Tulsa play New Mexico and Navy very tough, losing close hard fought affairs, and than unexpected down games like their 20-14 loss at UConn last week as 6 point favorites. Now today, I expect this under rated Tulsa side, to make a game of their confrontation with SMU this week. It must be noted that Tulsa is  6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/games like SMU,  while the Mustangs are just   4-15 ATS  L/19 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 450 or more yards/game.

TULSA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.

Meanwhile, SMU is off  hard fought 31-28 victory vs the Cincinnati bearcats last week, and now starting to show some chinks and their armour and maybe some fatigue as the season drags on, which is not a good omen against what can be a very high octane Canes side when their attention span is focused, as I'm betting it will be here.  SMU is 2-12 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points .

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are a long term good bet going 70-36 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Minnesota is a fine young team that matchs up well vs the Oklahoma City Thunder as was the case when they beat the Thunder right in their own back yard by a 115-113 count. I know the Thunder are loaded full of talent, but I've been watching them closely and their just isn't something right with this team and their overall chemistry as was evident in recent loss to Utah and during extended stretches during their first 4 games . Despite of being 2-2 on the season, the Thunder have me starting to doubt their cohesiveness. My main concern is about Carmelo Anthony , who has shown over the years to be brilliantly talented, but for some reason his happy go lucky schoolyard attitude on the court which lacks the eye of the Tigers mindset,   has only translated into a bevy of sub par winning out puts for his previous team the Knicks.  Has he brought this losing mindset to the Thunder, and is it effecting the highly sensitive Russell Westbrook? Maybe Maybe not  It's still early so , I''ll give the Thunder the benefit of the doubt. However, as far as going against the them tonight, I think this fast improving talented Minnesota group, with or without ( probable?) Jimmy Butler in the lineup on their own home court are more than capable of covering for us here.

Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.Thunder are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Minnesota.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line like Oklahoma City- poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of  45.5% or more are 17-33 SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover 1 unit reg selection

The top producing offense and the worst offensive output teams in the NBA go head to head on Friday night  at Madison Square Garden when the suddenly explosive retooled  Brooklyn Nets visit the rebuilding New York Knicks. The Nets are  coming off a 112-107 win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, and are in top form with momentum on their sides but still being made underdogs here on the early line. Brooklyn is leading  the NBA in offensive production at 121.2 points per game, and are even outscoring the  Golden State Warriors. Meanwhile, the  NYK is exhibiting very little chemistry thus far in the early going of this season  as their 0-3 start would indicate , New York has 84- and 89-point outputs in offense in two of their 3 games , and rank 30th in points per game at 93.3. Needless to say from a current power ranking and matchup perspective  this line is tainted and must be taken advantage of. ( I have also taken into consideration DAngelo Russell being out tonight because of injury.)While anything is possible in NBA , and turnarounds and crashes constantly happen, it still makes sense that the superior side ( Nets) are worth a investment outlay as 2 to 2.5 point dogs here, and are actually viable SU money-line bets as well. However, as far as we are concerned getting points with insurance here is the more viable option. I know the Nets D, seem unstable  at the moment, but the Knicks don't look built to take advantage of those deficiencies as is evident  by receiving  just  25 points per game from the starting three-man backcourt of point guard Ramon Sessions and shooting guards Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee . 

NBA team vs the money line like NYK- off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 5-20 SU L/5 seasons for a go  against conversion rate of 80% for bettors.

NEW YORK is 6-20 ATS  L/26 and 0-9 ATS L/9 in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5  and is 4-13 ATS  L/17  overall vs. division opponents.Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss dating back to last season.

Favorites like the Knicks - lower tier team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 15-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Pelicans have lost three of their first four, as the highly talented DeMarcus Cousins spreads his nasty attitude into the mindset of yet another team he has joined. This kid has such great skill sets,  that's it really shame that  his attitude and locker room presence does not make for a winning attitude. Tonight Cousins and the visiting Pelicans will face a team he once played for. None of Cousins' six  seasons in Sacramento saw his team win more than 33 games, and his 36-point, 13-rebound night for New Orleans in a 103-93 loss at Portland on Tuesday looked  like the games he has played in the NBA. The self centered super star just isn't a winner and I have no problem recommending we wager against his team the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. I know that the Kings lost last time out to lowly Phoenix by 117-115 count, but they have a good history of bouncing back under these circumstances as SACRAMENTO is 8-0 ATS L/8 off a loss against a division rival .

HC Gentry of New Orleans is 6-17 ATS  L/23 versus poor offensive teams - scoring  98 or less  points/game .

From a long term NBA historical standpoint -Home teams vs. the money line like the Kings - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a lower  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 129-58 SU for a 69% conversion rate dating back 21 seasons.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 1 unit reg selection

Let me start off by saying I was never a big fan of Jay Cutler, and was not impressed by the Fins off season signing of him. While you never like to see a player injured, I must say that this injury to Cutler is a blessing in disguise for Miami, as I believe they will do much better with Matt Moore under center. Last week Moore engineered a 17 point 4th quarter comeback, and navigated his team to a win vs the NY Jets. You know, Moore is no bum, when it comes to delivering cash to his bakers he's s stud QB as his 20-9 ATS overall record would indicate including a 10-4 ATS record in away tilts. Tonight the Dolphins go up against a less than reliable favorite with a ton of issues that continues to surrender yards and points in large chunks. This version of the Ravens thanks to injuries, QB Flacccos inconsistencies (or both) and just bad coaching, is not up to par with past incarnations of the franchise and should not be mistaken as such. This is not the Ray Lewis era, its far different and as of right now does not deserve our respect on this suspect line.

BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS  L/9 off 1 or more straight overs.

Harbaugh is 12-22 ATS  L/33 in October games, with the them and their opponents virtually tied in point production.

Ravens have lost 4 of their L/5 overall!

Dolphins QB Moore is 6-0 ATS against opposition with a .400 or better records  off consecutive SU/ATS losses.

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Baltimore - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 16-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Memphis Grizzlies suffered their first loss of the  season last night to Dallas.  Now in a early season back to back... home and home series they will go at FedEx Forum on Thursday night to try to reap revenge, but I'm betting that won't come without a fight .

The Mavs were in control from the start and never surrendered the lead in the second half of lat night triumph and actually matchup well vs the Grizzlies despite of what the pundits might think It must also be noted , that Mavericks rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr.  has been in top form for the Mavs and last night finished with a team-high 19 points. Smith has led or tied for team-high scoring honors in two of his three games and is very underrated and must respected. He gives this retooling Mavs side a lot more balance than the causal on lookers might believe, making them viable opponents for all comers despite of some lackluster early season results.

MEMPHIS is 6-17 ATS  L/23 after a division game .DALLAS is 31-15 ATS L/46 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games .

Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Memphis.Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Mavericks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Hawks are in the midst of a season-opening, five-game trip, which concludes with Thursday's visit to Chicago and are exhausted as this juncture and could easily fold as this game goes deeper into the 2nd half. I know Chicago is banged up and still winless , but they're playing at home, and are desperate. Tonight I'm betting they take advantage of a road weary group and notch their first win of the season and get us the cover as well.

Injury update: Hawks Dennis Schroder is doubtful Thursday vs. Chicago ( Ankle )

Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Underdogs like the Hawks - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, after 2 or more consecutive losses are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Red Wings have been playing poorly of late and have lost their L/5 games, while their hosts the Bolts, have won 7 of their L/8 with their L/2 coming by 7-1 and 5-1 blowouts vs Pittsburgh and Carolina at home. Both teams are obviously operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. With that said,,  and considering how dominate the Lightning have been at home in this series , I am recommending we lay the lumber on the puck-line and take TB.

Lightning are 7-0 in their last 7 home games overall

.DETROIT is 0-9 ATS  L/9 off a close road loss by 1 goal losing by an average of 2.3 gpg game ( 4.1 to 1.8)

My own projections estimate that TB will score 4 goals per game or more. (TAMPA BAY is 19-4 ATS  when they score 4 goals)-winning  by an average of 1.7 gpg)

TAMPA BAY is 8-0 SU/ATS against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons at home.

Play on the TB Lightning -1.5 on the puckline 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan has played some great defensive ball all season long, and have remained competitive on a consistent basis despite of their current 5 game losing streak. Their games have been grueling and exhausting, but the one that might have broke the camels back was last weeks hard fought 20-17 loss to Western Michigan in OT.  That was truly heart breaking and you could feel the energy just completely sucked out of this young group as they stood on the sidelines after the game. Now in a huge letdown situation they go up against a torrid D, that might even be better than theirs , and a balanced Northern Illinois  Huskies offense, that is very much better their own. Lay the lumber with the Huskies.

N ILLINOIS is 10-1 ATS  L/11 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and 6-0 ATS  L/6 after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and beginning to roll after a 48-17 beat-down of Bowling Green last week.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Mich - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 5-28 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Sixers,  host the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night and are off, beating the Detroit Pistons 97-86 on Monday. This is a fine young Sixer's team, but still are not ready for a wide awake veteran laden Houston team that won't be caught napping here as they come off a loss last time out vs  Memphis, after falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel with less than 8 minutes left , blowing a DD lead. There have been some shot conversion issues for the Rockets early on this season despite of their 3-1 record, but I'm betting that will be quickly resolved , probably starting tonight vs a side, that I think is over rated defensively and their biggest weakness. I know the Rocket's are playing with out Chris Paul tonight, but they still are the overall superior team with a lot more experience in a game that the linesmakers are expecting to be close.

HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  L/23 teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game.HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS  L/18 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 .

NBA Favorites like Hosuton - off a upset loss as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 60-31 ATS dating back to 1996 for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

The Timberwolves enter their Tuesday game against the Indiana Pacers with a 2-1 record, thanks in  to a buzzer-beater by Andrew Wiggins on Sunday in a 115-113 victory at Oklahoma City. Now the lines-makers are taking part in what I can best describe as irrational exuberance as they make the Wolves 12 point favorites. Hey this young Minnesota team is talented, but this line is higher than I expected and gives us value according to my own rankings taking points here. I know the Pacers have dropped two straight, but are still more than capable of hanging tough here.Minnesota and Indiana split their two-game series during the 2016-17 season. Both teams won on in the visitors role, with the Timberwolves barely sneaking by with a  115-114 victory on three late free throws in the final seconds. Rinse and repeat scenario in play  , and take the points.

MINNESOTA is 12-23 ATS  L/35 when playing against a team with a losing record.INDIANA is 11-1 ATS  L/11  in road games when playing with 2 days rest .MINNESOTA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 in home games after scoring 115 points or more.

NBA Favorites like Minn- bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

It's still very early in the season, but the Nets off season changes look very much like they have added some positive energy/flow/chemistry into the lineup, something that was not there over the last few campaigns. This season Brooklyn looks like they matchup well against tonight's opponent Orlando as they beat them in the first meeting,  putting a  126-point points on the board against the Magic and than followed that up with a  116-104 home win over the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday.Brooklyn held Atlanta to 34 percent shooting from the field, its best since Kenny Atkinson became the head coach last season. That to me is a be positive sign moving forward. Meanwhile, Orlando despite of a big upset win vs Cleveland last time out, still don't inspire me, and I'm betting they have an emotional letdown experience here tonight and fail to cover vs a side that actually matches up very well against them. Magic HC Vogel is 10-23 ATS  L/33 after a game where they covered the spread.

ORLANDO is 8-18 ATS  L/26 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game .

NBA Favorites like Orlando - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-44 ATS as favs dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection

It's never easy playing the Mile High City for visiting teams, because of the thin air, and I'm betting the Wizards travelling from East to West will find it difficult again tonight vs a Denver team that is playing physical/disciplined  defensive ball early on this season, as was evident  when they held Sacramento to 36.5 percent shooting in a lopsided 96-79 victory last time out. Yes, we all know how talented Washington is, but they have shown a tendency of throwing in clunkers in the past, and dating back to last season have failed to cover in their L/ 5 road games.

Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. DENVER is 18-6 ATS L/24 after 2 or more consecutive unders .

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors,   both unbeaten in their early-season schedules  go head to head tonight when they do battle on Monday at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. A lot has been made of the Spurs missing, , star forward Kawhi Leonard and point guard Tony Parker because of injuries, but this is a deep team, with a lot of talent, and have proven they can find multiple ways to beat opponents, including a top tier D,  which proved its metal in a  87-77 win on the road  on Saturday vs the Chicago Bulls. On offense the Spurs , can beat you with one of the NBAs most explosive and talented players , LaMarcus Aldridge, who  scored 28 points and had 10 rebounds to lead San Antonio over the Bulls. Like I said, the Spurs have just to many weapons, and are very diverse, compared to a one way run and gun Raptors side that is easily read by a coach like Popovich. I know the Raptors have  looked good in wins vs Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined 51 points in their first two games, but tonight their playing what I'm betting is a superior team without a key cog , big man center Jonas Valanciunas who was injured last time out and expected to miss this tilt.

Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio

San Antonio beat the Raptors in both meetings last season and have a three-game winning streak against Toronto. The Spurs lead the all-time series  17-4  SU against the Raptors at home and another victory and cover is around the corner.

NBA Underdogs like the Raptors - marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 19-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Dallas Mavericks, losers of their first three games and completely humiliated in Houston on Saturday night will now be playing with some pride and a huge chip on their shoulders in this spot, and should see Dennis Smith Jr. back and Devin Harris back after missing time early in the season  . Meanwhile, Golden State I'm betting will be over looking a group that they probably don't respect a great deal. I know the Warriors are a great team, but they have had a recent lackluster ATS history vs losing teams as this trend indicates, especially on the road.

Warriors dating back to last season are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Dallas HC Carlisle is 26-8 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half which happened in their last trip to the hardwood a 107-91 beatdown vs the Rockets in Houston.

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Detroit enters tis tilt with momentum on their sides  as they come off a 111-107 road win vs the New York Knicks on Saturday. The Pistons rallied from a 21-point deficit, outscoring the Knicks 60-43 in the second half. Now they go against a young talented Philadelphia Sixer's group who still cannot find a way to consistently notch victories, losing three straight times to start their campaign, including Saturdays lopsided 128-94 loss to the Raptors. There is a lot of talent in the 76ers lineup, but playing as a group and showing chemistry/flow at the moment seems to be a problem, as their star center Joel Embiid ,  comes in and out of the lineup , because of his need to rest his surgically repaired knee. Tonight I'm betting the Sixers having more problems ,  vs a Motown side that has won and covered 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series.

76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS  L/14 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5, with the average margin victory of the scores coming by 10.5 ppg.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New England Patriots looked like they had lost last years Super Bowl before they  pulled off the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL and left the Atlanta Falcons and their fans in shock with a unlikely 34-28  victory. At one point in the 3rd quarter Atlanta was up 28-3 before the Pats woke up and decided to thrash their opponents. Now the word REVENGE is making the rounds , as Atlanta fans and their betting backers bet on this scenario playing out. However, with said, it must be noted in life that you don't always get what you want. You have to remember, that New England has won 5 championships, and are probably the best coached team in football with Belichick at the helm, and arguably the best money QB in the game Tom Brady. These guys are as big as life, and whether they show it or not are ego driven, and will not take kindly to the Falcons wanting to come here and show the world that they are the better team, and last years loss was an anomaly. Instead I expect the Pats will primed to hand out another spanking, this time taking no chances and playing a complete focused game, which is not a good omen for a Falcons side that has shown big gaps in concentration over the last few seasons, despite of their top tier talent levels.

Atlanta 's HC Quinn is 4-13 ATS  L/17 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.Belichick is 38-16 ATS  L/54 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play winning on average by over a TD.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play.

NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/17 after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.

The Patriots are 15-0 ATS /SU  covering by over 14.8 ppg on turf vs non-divisional opponent that is averaging 13+ passing first downs per game, including last season's super bowl vs the Atlanta  Falcons.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last night in Utah Russell Westbrook looked surprisingly below average for the Oklahoma City Thunder in a loss. His energy levels as well as his teammates were very low in the team looked completely out of sync and tired looking. Tonight at home in a matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves I expect he and his team will rebound in a big way. After posting a triple-double in a season-opening victory vs the NY Knicks, Westbrook recorded just six points on 2-of-11 shooting in 36 minutes of shabby play. This type of low level of play by the MVP was only the third time in his 10-year career that he has been held to six or less points while playing at least 30 minutes. Something that stood out to me, is that Westbrook is shooting 40.4 percent from 3-point range in 31 career games against the Timberwolves, which is his highest mark against all but two other NBA sides, which gives me credence in my belief he will bounce back in a big way and play hard with Carmelo Anthony and P George tonight at home in front of their own fans. I know the Wolves are a fine young team, but this is a beatable spread for the Oklahoma City Thunder backers .Meanwhile, the Timberwolves won their home opener the other night in a hard fought battle vs Utah, but it must be noted that from a recent performance betting standpoint that not a good thing as the Timberwolves are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 ATS L/35 as a home favorite and is 14-4 ATS L/18 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.


NBA Home favorites like Oklahoma City - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 25-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Pittsburgh Steelers are off a hard fought win vs the KC Chiefs last week, as they derailed the Chiefs undefeated season. Now in a letdown spot, vs the Cincinnati Bengals I'm betting they won't easily get by a well rested Bengals side off a bye week. It must be noted that the Bengals are 8-0 ATS L/8 after a bye week when facing a division foe with an above .500 record like the Steelers . Meanwhile, the Steelers are an ugly 1-5 ATS as chalk  against a rested side with a below .500 record and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite after a victory as a dog and Big Ben Roethlisberger is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after a SU underdog win in his career. It must also be noted that in my most recent power ranking projections that I consider the Bengals to be the most under rated team in the NFL at the moment and other than their opening loss have been extremely competitive.

CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.HC  Tomlin of the Steelers  is 2-10 ATS  L/12 off 4 or more consecutive unders

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Steelers  - in a game involving two average teams (plus/minus  3 PPG differential.), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are just 18-45 ATS over the L/24 seasons.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection

A lot of pundits believe that San Diego State will easily bounce back from last weeks surprising loss to Boise State ( 31-14) as their perfect season crashed and burned. But , hold your horses, I'm betting getting out of here vs a fast improving Fresno State football program will not come easily. Former California HC Tedford has really got the Bulldogs rocking winning 4 of 6 games with the losses coming to highly rated Alabama and Washington. Considering Fresno State has a top tier history of doing well with conference revenge failing to cover only once in their L/11 tries, it won't be a hard decision to back them here on the road in a key game getting  TD plus. ( Last year SDSt beat Fresno State 17-3).

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-24 ATS L/35 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season .FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS L/9 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS L/16 in all lined games.

Play on Fresno State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wyoming after losing 2 of their first three games  to begin their season have won three straight games SU/ATS, and are finally starting to perform up to expectations behind stud QB, Joh Allen who is still not in top form , but  ready to explode at any time. However, Wyoming is ranked tied for first in Red Zone offense,  and should do much better than San Diego State did last week vs Boise State . The Broncos surprised a lot of pundits last week, by beating SD State, but the truth is the Aztecs are starting to become easier to read as the season has gone on, as they just continually hand the ball to Rashad Penney . With that said, and now in a letdown scenario after their upset win, I'm betting the Broncos will have a hard time getting up for this tilt despite of being in revenge mode for a 30-28 loss at Larime last season.  

WYOMING is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last few seasons.BOISE ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8 as a home favorite and is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games after playing a conference game .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wyoming  - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah is a fine team that I highly respect, but after playing last night in a physically grueling affair in Minnesota losing by 3 points and covering, I just don't believe they have enough left in the tank to deal with what is now In my humble opinion one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they potent with their attack, they are showing early signs of being equally capable of over powering their  opponents on the defensive end. With that said, I usually rarely lay lumber with a road team these circumstances at this juncture of my wagering campaign warrant such a bet and recommendation to my clients.

Quote: "By playing great defense, especially this early in the season where probably most teams are trying to find their way, it gives you at least a little bit of room where if you don't have a great offensive night or are trying to figure it out offensively, you can really fall back to your defense," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters after the game.

Note: Rodney Hood was carried off the floor by his teammates after suffering an apparent lower-leg injury during the fourth quarter last night vs Minny which puts the Jazz at a distinct disadvantage in this tilt.

UTAH is 7-20 ATS  L/27 off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival and OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-10 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points  with the average victory coming by 7.6 ppg.

Ok City has won 7 of the L/8 meetings and 3 of the L/4 here in Utah and enter this game in much better shape roster wise than they have in the past.

NBA Favorites like Oklahoma City - in a game involving two teams who had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season are 23-3 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors and also NBA Favorites like Oklahoma City - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, vs. division opponents are 27-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Milwaukee Bucks opened the season with games against Boston and Cleveland, and are pretty acclimated to playing some very tough competition. The Bucks looked pretty ordinary against a Cleveland team that looked to be on a mission last night, losing by a DD, count at home,  but I'm still a big believer in this team. I know their opposition tonight, the Portland Trailblazers have looked explosive so far this season, in their first two games , but this will be the Blazers second consecutive road game in a back to back situation. Yes, I do know that the Bucks are also playing back to back games, but playing them while sleeping at home in your own bed, and playing back to backs , after taking a  red eye flight are two completely different scenarios as far as how rested your team will be. With that said, I expect the Bucks come out in good form tonight and get us the win and cover.

Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee and the Bucks have won and covered the most two recent meetings here in Milwaukee.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Blazers - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are just 36-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 66% for bettors.

NBA Favorites like Milwaukee - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 ATS L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these football programs  have been playing good ball of late, as Arizona is off back to back upsets of Colorado and defensively deficient UCLA, while California is off a 37-3 beat down of formerly undefeated Washington State. It's been California's D, that has them turned around this season, and Arizona's explosive offense that made them so dangerous. So in a game I have tabbed for D vs Offense, I'm betting on the D coming out on top and helping us get the  cover.  It must also be noted that California is 13-1 ATS L/14 in this series as dogs, and once again look like loveable pups in this spot at home in Berkeley.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs and 0-7 ATS  L/7  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Arizona's HC Rodriguez is 2-16 ATS  L/18 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 L/9 ATS   after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

California opened as the favorite here before the line was pushed back the other way favoring Arizona. The guys who work the other side of the counters in Vegas have some sharp minds, and despite of some early smart money coming in on Arizona I'm siding with the boys who make a living helping build Vegas in this spot.  The line ORIGINALLY OPENED  this way most probably because of some interesting long term trends that show , a CFB home team vs. the money line like California  - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in October games are 43-14 in the follow up for a 75% conversion rate for SU bettors and also that a home team vs. the money line like the Bears- off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9 are 46-14 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the California Golden Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan enters this game ranked No.1 in the nation in defense, and are giving up just 14.7 ppg. Granted they have a horrendous time moving the ball downfield, but if they get can Karan Higdon, going downhill today I'm betting we have an extroidnary chance at covering . Last week he had 200 plus yards and looks like he is shifting into top gear just when Harbaugh and company will need it most. I know Penn State looks like the team to beat in the Big 10, but despite of Michigan inconsistencies this season, must be respected as HC Harbaugh is 7-1 in his career vs undefeated opposition with the only loss coming by 4 points. Penn State has a bye week , but being well rested may become a secondary concern, as the offense may find themselves rusty against a nasty D, that will be out to hand out some big time pain this week.

PENN ST is 2-14 ATS  L/16 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 150 or less passing yards/game with a negative margin of 6.1 ppg. PENN ST is 6-25 ATS  L/31 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.

Penn State HC Franklin is just 9-19-1 ATS vs .750 or better foes like Michigan.

Penn State is 1-13 as a favorite when undefeated following a DD win vs a ,750 or better winning record like Michigan.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 72-35 ATS L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rambling Wreck are more one dimensional team then ever, and are not only a run team, but a run only team as they rank 128 th in the nation in pass efficiency.  Their fairly easy to read for good Ds, which Wake owns. With Clemson on board next week, for GTech I'm betting their concentration will also be off, which is not a good omen against a very good Wake Forest team, that are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 road games. Also WAKE FOREST is 28-8 ATS  L/36 vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. I'm betting on a well rested Wake Forest team off a bye to have the edge today vs a GTECH side off a emotional loss a Miami Fl, last week.

WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog and  16-4 ATS L/20  in road games after a bye week.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like GTech - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 6-26 ATS L/32 dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Philadelphia 76ers  off a loss last night will face   the Toronto Raptors this Saturday night.The 76ers,  lost 3 of 4 to the Raptors last season, and have lost  15 of their past 16 games against Toronto, including nine in a row at Air Canada Centre. That and the fact that their over hyped young star is out tonight and expected to rest (Joel Embiid) ,has pushed this line to it's outer limits.  With that said, and in contrarian fashion,  I'm betting we have value taking a talented Sixers group  , who despite of playing last night,   will not be all that tired because of their young legs , and a Raptors side that is no longer as deep as they once were.  With that said, I'm recommending we take the points here with a Philly side that is 7-2 ATS L/9 with no rest vs a Raptors side, that has failed to 6 of their 8 at home.

PHILADELPHIA is 31-18 ATS  L/49 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and have covered 19 of their 28 after a loss of 10 points or less which happened last night in a loss 102-92 loss to the Celtics.

76ers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on the Phuladelphia 76ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Charlotte is a  lower tier  team, no mistake about it, but UAB is as inconsistent as they come, and despite of back to back underdog wins, in no shape or form should be TD+ road favs here as they have failed in this role 12 of the L/17 times. UAB is 7-19 ATS L/26  in road games off a win against a conference rival. (They beat over rated Middle Tenn St last week 25-23)

It must also be noted that CFB teams off back to back upset victories are not a good bet when going against below .500 opposition going just 14-30 ATS L/44 times dating back 27 seasons. Also CFB  home team vs. the money line like Charlotte- off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 27-6 for a over powering 82% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. ( Charlotte lost last week to W.Kentucky 45-14)

In Charlottes lone home game against a viable FBS side they lost 14-3 to up trending Marshall) It was a good effort that can be replicated today against a side in a letdown/trap spot.

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon has been getting beaten up on of late, losing two straight lopsided events ,  but I expect they will be in this game vs their hosts UCLA , as a more reliable QB Taylor Alle will be back under center after backup Braxton Burmeister proved he can't handle the role .  Also the return of WR Royce Freeman will also aid the Ducks here in their ability to cover. Note: Taggart is 5-0 ATS L/5 after back to back ATS losses.

Jim Mora's UCLA is a defensive and TO deficient train wreck this season. Ranking 126th in TO margin while allowing 40 ppg on average . Considering Oregon has a recent history of gauging the Bruins D in the past averaging 48.3 ppg in this series, it will be an easy decision for me to take the Ducks in this spot.UCLA is 0-7 ATS  L/7 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

CFB road team like the Ducks  - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-26 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone seems to love Miss State here, and on paper maybe their right. But some other personal observations have come to light for me after watching more and more the Rebels QB Nick Fitzgerald of late. What I have noticed is that he's being allowed to let loose, in dangerous situations, as was the case last week when he threw to unnecessary interceptions in the red zone. This kid seems not to concerned with risk management, and does not measure up some passing situations well leaving his side vulnerable for pick 6s. This kid just does not get it, despite of being ultra talented. Instead I like Kentucky's mobile QB Stephen Johnson behind a explosive offense to be the better of the two today and to keep his Wildcats team in this game and get us the cover.


CFB Road underdogs like Kentucky- after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a top-level team ( 80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 32-8 ATS over the L/10 seasons, for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

Winnipeg is a contender for this seasons Grey Cup according to my power rankings, an are in a uptrend at the moment winning 8 of their L/10. and despite of Toronto from time to time pulling off some quality performances, are needless to say not a real threat .

TORONTO is 0-7 ATS  against teams who commit 1.25 or less turnovers/game on the season and is 2-12 ATS  L/14 versus good offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game.WINNIPEG is 12-4 ATS  L/16 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90  or less rushing yards/game.WINNIPEG is 9-2 ATS  L/11 versus awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse this season.WINNIPEG is 9-0 ATS L/9 off a home win , which happened last time out.WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS   in road games after being outgained by opp by 70 or more total yards last game and  is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games in non-conference games.TORONTO is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games in October games and  is 4-14 ATS  L/18  in non-conference games.

CFL team vs the money line like Winnipeg - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 48-16 over the L/5 seasons and so far a perfect 8-0 this season!

CFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Toronto - off a non-conference game are 12-45 ATS in their follow up game over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.

Play on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona St is off a big win vs Washington last time out, and have been competitive all season long, and have not lost by more than 10 points this season. I know The Sun Devils might be in a letdown mode, and that Utah has owned this series of late, but they are off two grueling physical  losses in their L/2 games against Stanford and USC and should show those effects here today, and also be in a letdown state. With that said I'm taking the points here.

Utah HC Whittingham is 12-27 ATS  L/39 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

 CFB team like Arizona State  - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 23-4 ATS L/27 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Michigan has lost 4 straight games, but make no mistake about it, their a much better team  than  that and have been very competitive in those losses losing by an average of 4.25 ppg , losing by 7, 4.5.1 points respectively with 3 of those coming on the road. In the 7 point loss to Ohio at home , they had chances to win that game, against what is turning out to be one of the top teams in the MAC this season. Its the E.Michigan D, that been impressive, as was the case against an explosive SEC team in Kentucky on the road( 24-20 L). So slowing down a Western Michigans offense should not be a problem, as well as  doing enough damage offensively to get us a cover. Remember this  Broncos team is  not a PJ Fleck coached side, and no longer deserves the respect they have over the last few seasons as was the case last week in a ugly 14-13 loss to Akron.

E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.E MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS L/19 in all lined games and is 11-2 ATS as an underdog.
E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of  seasons.

Play on E.Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is off a huge surprise 45-17 win vs Houston last week, and will now be in a letdown scenario here this week vs a UConn team that is off a upset win vs Temple last week. The difference is that UConn had a good chance to win their previous game  from the outset , while the Canes behind their 129th ranked D, were not. Now this extremely inconsistent Tulsa team is being asked to lay essentially a TD on the road, something I'm having a hard time swallowing. Especially considering how pathetic the Tulsa D has been this season.

TULSA is 8-21 ATS  L/29 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games off an upset win as an underdog.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UConn - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 69-36 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UConn Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah took out Denver in their opener by a 106-96 count as 2.5 point favorites, while the Timberwolves lost  on the road as an over estimated -1 chalk at the road vs San Antonio by a 107-99 count. I once again believe both teams are being undervalued by the linesmakers, and won't be surprised if the Jazz win this game outright making getting points golden in my betting opinion. There are new  talented faces in the Wolves dressing room,  ie ( Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, Crawford )and Utah is now a retooled team playing without the services of Gordon Hayward who left via free agency. What remains the same for the Jazz that makes them tough to play against, is a  staunch D that led the NBA in scoring defense last season (96.8 points per game) as was evident in the  opener, as they allowed the Nuggets to 13 fourth-quarter points and forcing 22 turnovers overall. Meanwhile, on the flipside, Minnesota looks to be packed with offensive talent, but here against this type of team that tampers with a teams flow, I'm betting their in trouble , as they continue to build chemistry and try gel as a team. 

MINNESOTA is 13-24 ATS  L/35 ATS as a favorite .The visiting team has won 10 of the past 15 meetings. Dating back to last season  the Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Favorites like Minnesota  - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 1 unit reg selection

Orlando looked good in beating Miami in their opener by a 116-109 count as 3.5 point dogs. What impressed me is their ability to stay calm and get the job done despite of a late Heat comeback attempt/surge.   Meanwhile, Brooklyn looked defensively deficient in their opening loss to the Indiana Pacers as 3.5 dogs by a 140-131 deficit. I'm betting their defensive break down until addressed will end up being their demise again tonight. Add to that  they lost  Jeremy Lin  for the season with a ruptured patella tendon in their opener and you have a  bad news Nets team that just can't get over the hump no matter how many changes they made In the off season.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Magic have won six of the last seven meetings, but lost a  121-111 decision at Brooklyn last season. I'm betting they come back here with an edge and get us a cover.

Play on Orlando to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these teams looked offensively explosive in their first games of the season, both sides getting wins . The Blazers scored the biggest margin of victory in NBA history, beating Phoenix 124-76. That was even without  McCollum serving a one-game suspension for coming off the bench during an altercation in a preseason game, as reserve guard Pat Connaughton replaced him admirably and stopped and popped for  a career-high 24 points.  With that said,  one of these teams stood to me as being very smooth and polished , in all aspects of the game, and that was the Portland Blazers. I'm not getting completely down on the Pacers as they were impressive offensively in the opener as well with a 140-131 triumph over the Brooklyn Nets, but their defense was horrendous to say the least and soft to be kind.  It's still early and the competition limited, but from a  head to head to matchup ranking system I use the Blazers have the edge here, even though they are on the road.

The Blazers are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 meetings in this series . Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland  - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 35-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Road favorites vs. the money line like Portland - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 23-2 SU 92% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons.

Play on Portland to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Milwaukee Bucks opened the season in top form, as they defeated last season's top Eastern Conference playoff seed on the road in Boston, despite of not playing a complete game and going cold in the second half. I really like the way this Bucks team has come together over the last few seasons, and  I won't be surprised if they knock off the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers (8 new players in the lineup) in the Bradley Center on Friday night for their home opener. I actually have the Bucks listed very high on my own power rankings list, and feel that they matchup very well against the Cavaliers current roster.

CLEVELAND is 19-31 ATS  L/50 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 13-26 ATS  L/39 vs. division opponents. Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the  Cavaliers  - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 34-61 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors. ( Cleveland beat the Celtics 102-99 in their opener, the same teams the Bucks beat in their opener)

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The new-look Boston Celtics will be primed and motivated to notch their first victory of the season when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers in their home opener on Friday night. The Celtics not only lost their two opening games,  but lost Gordon Hayward to a nasty looking leg injury. Now their suddenly being looked at as non contenders which for now at least is a over reaction considering how early in the season it is. I'm betting Boston finds a way to get wins and will remain competitive especially against young teams like the Sixers who haven't proven anything yet. Meanwhile, the Sixer's  their opponents despite of some promise  remain a inconsistent component,  after beginning the season with a 120-115 loss in Washington on Wednesday night.

BOSTON is 30-18 ATS  L/48  road games .76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games dating back to last season. Celtics have won 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series.

teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Celtics - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after 2 or more consecutive losses are 28-8 ATS over the L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall is a team the pundits are not paying a lot of attention to this season , thanks to last seasons miserable results . However, this season, they are in big time upswing, behind a solid defense that is ranked No.2 in the nation, in red zone defense and allowed 3 of their L/4 opponents to a FG or less and the defense overall has held 4 sides to 20 points or less this season. Tonight against a Middle Tennessee State football program that has failed to cover 9 of their L/15 as home dogs, the Blue Raiders are fade material in my betting opinion

. note: the Raiders are off a upset loss last time out to UAB, 25-23 as 4 point chalk, , HC Stockstill is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite and also 0-5 ATS /SU L/5 as a dog following a loss as a favorite.



CFB road team like Marshall - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. are 30-7 ATS L/37 over the L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection

Pacific Division inter city rivals go head to head tonight  in the City of Angels. the Clippers have dominated this series  winning 14 of the last 15 meetings, including three of four last season and I'm betting these new look teams will continue a recent tradition of Clipper wins. The Clippers do have a new look, with Chris Paul gone and are now  depending on quality new additions like Patrick Beverley,  the flashy Milos Teodosic, and Danilo Gallinari and the usually solid presence of Blake Griffin & the explosive DeAndre Jordon  to continue the franchises winning ways , via a faster mode of attack that just won't stop til it drops. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a team that depends way to much on  Lonzo and Ingram to carry them and talented new acquisition Brooks Lopez that just does not know how to consistently win as was the case in Brooklyn . Its just to early in these guys careers to be put in a spot to lead a young team. With that said,  I'm willing to make a bet that the Lakers are over matched in this spot. 

Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Pacific.

 Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Houston enters this game off a surprising and embarrassing loss to Tulsa last time out as DD road favorites. They looked truly asleep at the wheel in that tilt after a big revenge win vs a up trending SMU side the week before by a 35-22 count. The good news for Cougars fans is that they will take on a Memphis team that has not won here in 11 years, and play this game on home turf where the Cougars have not lost since 2014. Houston also has revenge on board for a 48-44 loss in Memphis last season, even though they put 624 yards of offense up. Considering the Tigers are off a grueling and hard fought win vs Navy last week, 30-27, I'm betting they won't have as much left in the tank in this spot vs a Houston side that is superior defensive side with 73 yard per game better stopping margin than their visiting opponents.

MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS  L/8 off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less and 8-19 ATS  off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Houston has won 18 of their L/23 revengers.

Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017-18 season  as a team I have had cautiously circled this  year    a a side that could surprise for at least postseason contention. This is a very talented young group with a lot of potential. Meanwhile, Portland continues to be a team, that despite of looking good at the end of last season, after starting slowly , still remains inconsistent despite of a lot of promise. Tonight ,Portland will play the opener without McCollum, who was suspended for the first game of the regular season after running off  the bench  during an altercation between teammate Caleb Swanigan and Suns center Alex Len in a preseason game on Oct. 11 in Phoenix. Needless to say there is some bad blood between these sides at the moment, and that will put the young and hungry Suns on their own home court in  the mood to run and play hard. When a bunch of 20 something year olds with talent, are in the mood to run, you better look out. I know the Blazers are still the superior side, overall, but tonight I'm betting they are going to be the lesser of these foes in the opener against the spread.

Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Phoenix is 4-3 ATS L/7 in this series.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line like the Blazers - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 8-25 SU for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Phoenix suns to cover 1 unit reg selection

The spot light is now on a new era in Houston with super star guards James Harden and Chris Paul roaming the floor together in their debut campaign  . The Rockets are a deep team in a chase to end the supremacy of the Warriors in the West and upset them last night in a grueling raod affair by a 122-121 count as 9.5 point dogs.  Now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state I'm betting a more temperate effort from the Rockets here tonight.. Meanwhile, the Kings are young  but very talented   , including top pick De'Aaron Fox, a guard out of Kentucky. Despite of their lack of experience this team can play and I have they pegged in my early season power rankings as a possible play off contender. Look for them to be competitive here in their adrenalin filled opener .

HOUSTON is 15-27 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points dating back to last season and  8-19 ATS L/27 off a road win.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Spurs are now a different team without the services of star forward Kawhi Leonard and veteran star point guard Tony Parker who are both out with injuries, However despite of this I'm betting the Spurs are still a team that must be respected , thanks to a top tier defense, and pass-first offensive attack and one of the NBAs top HCs Gregg Popovich.San Antonio after winning 61 games last season and recording its best defensive rating (103.5) since 2011 and a  111.1 offensive rating will still be a force to reckoned with and the pundits maybe should not get ahead of themselves by automatically assuming that a up-trending Minnesota Wolves team can just march into San Antonio and pull off a upset. Yes, agreed , the Spurs  could still not be at that the top of their game just yet, with new bodies acclimating to an old system,  but I'm betting they are still capable of a win here on opening night especially with the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge on the floor and  the new young blood of  Joffrey Lauvergne, Rudy Gay, Derrick White, and Brandon Paul more than ready to compete. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of their quality roster are still a side, that  has recorded  eight consecutive losing seasons and has missed the playoffs for 13 straight years and should still be looked at as wait see type side.

The Spurs have taken the last 11 tilts ion this series from Minnesota, including seven in a row at the AT&T Center and one more is on tonight's agenda.

Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line like San Antonio - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 35-4 SU dating back 21 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.

Play on San Antonio to cover 1 unit reg selection

Memphis enters this season   led by one of the NBA's top inside/outside combinations in point guard Mike Conley and center Marc Gasol and are still a team that must be respected despite of changing up their style of play to a quicker up-tempo game plan as was the case in a preseason game last week against tonight's opposition, the New Orleans Pelicans in a lopsided 142-101 beat down. Tonight I'm betting the Grizzlies dominate again on a short line against a team that depends far to much on the duo of Cousins and Davis. In my opinion. Cousins despite of his extreme talent  never fits into a dressing room, and is once again a guy that does not fit into a team concept and this always will put his team in the position of lacking chemistry. As you can see I'm not a big fan of Alvin Gentry's Pelicans because of this and feel their at a disadvantage here on the road vs a very hard working team. Note: Pelicans were just  11-14 SU  after trading for Cousins last season.

Pelicans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Favorites like Memphis - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for their betting backers.

Play on Memphis to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets start their season opener Wednesday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. One was a play off team from last season, and one well was not. Despite of that the team (Nets) that was not is still being given respect here by the lines-makers making them only 5 point dogs vs Indiana on the opening line and still showing value at 3.5. Vegas has a lot of smart minds on the other side of the counter, and their correct I'm betting their upgraded assessments of the Brooklyn Nets a team that I expect will go over their projected win total for this season, thanks in part to some very good off season moves that brought the ultra talented  and  Russell over from the Lakers and added the service of defensive specialist DeMarre Carroll and Alan Crabbe. Meanwhile, the Pacers  are a team with a different flavor this season as they traded George to Oklahoma City for guard Victor Oladipo and forward Domantas Sabonis. Indiana will also have to start the season without Glenn Robinson III, who had surgery on his left ankle , which will put them at a disadvantage.

NBA  team vs the money line like Indiana - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8+ spread covers in last 10 games, team that had a losing record last season are 41-12 SU for a 775 conversion rate over the L/21 season for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection

 The Titans behind  a not 100% healthy QB Marcus Mariota are in my humble opinion at a disadvantage in this tilt vs disrespected Indianapolis Colts side, that maybe better than expected with QB Jacoby Brisset under center, especially with T.Y. Hilton waiting to grab passes and a trio of backs that can do damage. Remember, the  43-point loss the Titans experienced vs the Texans two weeks ago, as Mariota recorded a 56 QB rating while  throwing two interceptions? Mariota and his  offense looked out of sync. So completely blaming his back up Matt Cassel for the Titans 16-10 loss to Miami last week, maybe misplaced, as the Ttians offensive line looked weak in allowing 6 sacks. Indy in my opinion is not as bad as the public and pundits might think, and maybe we vastly over rated how good the Titans were going to be this season. After all actions speak louder than words, and thus far everything written and talked about by the media about the Titans has turned out to be wrong. It's still fairly early in the season, so I won't get to down on the Titans.  As far as tonight goes, I'm expecting this to be closer than the lines-makers are expecting , and getting points to be a viable wagering investment opportunity backing a visiting Colts team that has been a curse on this Titans franchise winning 11 straight meetings.

TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS  L/9 vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season .TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS  L/15 when playing against a team with a losing record .TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS  L/27  against conference opponents .

NFL Favorites like Tennessee - off 2 consecutive road losses, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 8-28 ATS during the L/24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

NFL Home teams like Tennessee  - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 17-50 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 8-29 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 1 unit reg selection

The NFL is an interesting league , with  changes in a teams momentum from week to week , and there is  also enough parity  to justify taking a underdog like the 49ers that look futile at best in the eyes of the public.

Because of the Niners inconsistencies, there are some  exaggerated weak  lines attached to their tilts. This week, I have isolated such a line, and recommend we take the underdog getting DD points.  The old saying of  "Any given Sunday" should be given relevance here, and we should not rush to judgement about how bad a team San Francisco is as compared to the Redskins, who are far from a consistent side themselves. I know the Skins are off a bye week but  from a recent historical stand point have not faired well with rest as is evident by a  2-7 ATS record in their last 9 games following a bye week.

49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Redskins are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 6.Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

WASHINGTON is 21-39 ATS  L/60  in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards per return or less and 22-45 ATS  L/67  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS  L/83 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

The Redskins are 0-17 ATS and 3-14 SU as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game.The Redskins are 0-10 ATS /SU  at home after a loss in which they were up by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

GB QB Aaron Rodgers has made big comeback wins in 2 of his L/3 games, and is red hot at the moment. When the Packers man under center is on his game, he has to be considered the best QB in football along with Tom Brady. The Packers are currently a full two games atop the NFC North and early on this season look like the class of the division. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off a Monday night game, vs Chicago winning by a 20-17 count, but are just 2-11 ATS L/13 at home in division games off a Monday night tilt. It must also be noted that Rodgers is 3-0 SU/ATS in a division game vs a side of the MNF game.With the Vikings QB Sam Bradford still not 100% healthy and the Vikes running game, operating a lower level than it has over the last few seasons, I'm fading them here, as home dogs.

GREEN BAY is 30-16 ATS L/46 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game.GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points .GB HC McCarthy is 30-10 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .

Favorites vs. the money line like the Packers - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced, or less after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 29-2 SU for a 93% conversion rate. Considering that my own projections estimate a 6 point + win for the Packers it will be an easy decision to back them here based in part on this historical data.

Play on the GB Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New Orleans Saints are off two straight wins and covers and have momentum on their sides and are also well rested after coming of their bye week. Meanwhile, the visiting Lions continue to be inconsistent, and are off a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers last time out as hosts. It must be noted that QB Matt Stafford has not performed well on the road in his career as is evident by a 8-22 SU mark vs a winning opponent . With a lack of a running game the Lions, have become to one dimensional, and are easily figured out by opposing defenses, which makes them fade material against a Saints side, that has held their L/2 opponents to a total of 237 yards of offense.

Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.Saints are a perfect 5-0 ATS/SU and  8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Teams like the Saints returning from England and off a bye are a near perfect 8-0-1 ATS.

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90  or less rushing yards/game and  8-0 ATS  L/8 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DETROIT is 7-21 ATS  L/28  in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the  Lions - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection

Washington 6-0 is a fine team and ranked among the best in the nation. Many even believe they have a chance at a National Championship. However, tonight, I'm betting they will not easily get past a Arizona State side, that is fresh off a bye week and has the ability to fire back with some offensive fire power, ranking No.1 in red zone offense in the nation and get us a cover from many different perspectives, ie back door, shoot out or even an outright upset. I know this looks like a walk in the park for the mighty Huskies, but this series, has seen the Sun Devils win 10 of the L/11 games SU while covering 11 straight meetings. It must also be noted that Arizona State has covered 4 straight as DD home dogs, and that week 7 of the Huskies football schedule has been a curse for the program from a ATS perspective as they have failed to cover 11 straight times.

ARIZONA ST is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. ARIZONA ST is 11-1 ATS  L/12  in home games when playing with 2 weeks .

Arizona States HC Graham is 15-4 ATS  L/19  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less .

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State played a grueling/physical defensive game against the Michigan Wolverines last time out and came out on top via a 14-10 score as underdogs. Now drained exhausted and in an emotional letdown scenario they go against a hard working PJ Fleck lead side that will primed and motivated to get a win as home dogs.

 It must be noted that after winning their first 3 games the Gophers have lost back to back games and need a victory badly and have responded well of adversity in the recent past as is evident by these trends.Golden Gophers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Golden Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.

MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS  L/6 as a road favorite.Spartans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah dominates at the line of scrimmage, and has some of the top defensive numbers in the PAC12. Meanwhile, USC, is banged up on the line of scrimmage, and just don't have enough viable healthy components at the moment to mix and match on the offensive or defensive line. That was the reason Washington State beat the Trojans, and why this could end up in a surprising upset here for Utah. I know the Utes are going with backup senior QB Troy Williams , because no.1 man under center Tyler Huntely is injured.  However, it must be noted that Williams started all 12 games last season, so its not like he can't manage this teams offense, even though  it will just not be as dynamic and instead revert back to a ground heavy attack that eats clock.

Utah's HC Whittingham is 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games after a loss by 3 or less points, which happened against Stanford last time out. USC is 0-7 ATS L/7  in home games after 5 consecutive games where they committed 2 or more turnovers.UTAH is 12-3 ATS  L/15 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.UTAH is 16-5 ATS  L/21  in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Utah - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the over rated UTSA Roadrunners got smacked around by southern Miss and lost as 10 point chalk. Now they come into North Texas as favorites again, and I feel very much like the wrong team is favored here. You have to remember that all three of UTSAs wins have come against winless sides, and now against a explosive Mean Green offense that has put 46, and 43 points on the board in back to back games and out stating their competition by 110 ypg   their in trouble. With the added incentive of payback for the Mean Green for a 31-17 road loss they suffered last season, to the Roadrunners, I'm betting the home team covers.

NORTH TEXAS is 18-7 ATS  L/25 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 UTSA - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-57 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

LA Monroe have won 3 straight games, but what has become obvious is that their defense is horrendous, as is evident by having allowed an of 37 ppg.  Meanwhile, Georgia State's defense has been formidable vs all but one opponent this season ( Penn St) and will be more prepared to make key stops. On offense, GState might lack fire power, but against this type of empty D, they should have a viable output that helps us cover the number.

ULM is just 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS L/11 as chalk vs .500 or better opponents.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS K/6 in weeks 5 through 9 and  is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games against conference opponents  and is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games.

Play on Georgia State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Kentucky after former HC Jeff Brohm left for Purdue  has lost their offensive effectiveness  and last week barely got by lowly UTEP by a 15-14 count.  Actually the Hilltoppers are in a desperate state as they have been out gained  in all 5 of their games this season, and are being over rated by the linesmakers here today as DD home favorites. From a value line perspective it must be noted that Charlotte is 4-1 ATS L/5 as a DD conference dog. Hey guys I know Charlotte is not exactly a quality team, but W KENTUCKY is  just 3-12 ATS  L/15  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play and 1-9 ATS L/10 in the first half of the season .

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection