UCF head coach Gus Malzahn is on the hot seat this teams need wins and now  especially  after  getting smashed by 56-21  count  at Cincinnati  last week , which did not make Central Florida backers/boosters very happy and the rumblings are getting louder.  The good news here for UCF is that host is on a  13-1 ATS run in this series while,  Memphis’ has lost 13 of their L/15 when playing on the road against UCF. 

MEMPHIS is 0-7 ATS  in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS  in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 8-30 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against  79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Central Florida to cover 

Golden State behind super star Curry looked good in their opener vs the LA Lakers, and once again are viable side options in this tilt as home favorites according to my projections. Note: Clippers super star Kawhi Leonard is expected out tonight with continued knee issues. 

What impressed me in the victory vs the  Lakers was the defensive play of Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole they set the tone for the Warriors. They did not shoot the ball all that well, but wow were they tenacious. More of those efforts will make the Dubs a hard team to face this season. 

GOLDEN STATE is 16-6 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8+ spread covers in last 10 games, team that had a winning record last season are 24-2 L/25 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg. 

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover 

I have projected a 3 TD win + here for Lafayette. ARKANSAS ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -28.3 ppg. 

CFB home underdogs (ARKANSAS ST) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 7-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) - off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a terrible team ( 25%) are 25-1 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +25.5 points per game. 

Play on UL Lafayette to cover

 .The Trail Blazers  biggest problem last season under former  coach Terry Stotts was their defense, which was ranked 23rd in scoring defense last season while allowing 114.3 points per game.Now new HC Billups has said he is working to correct that  but that in Im betting takes away from the Blazers flow at least for the early part of the season.  Meanwhile their opponents tonight the Sacramento Kings have looked good in preseason action and have done well getting their defense in gear by winning all 4 games with a 11 ppg diff. The Kings are now built for the two way game and get the nod tonight. 

SACRAMENTO is 35-19 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

 The Chanticleers are ranked and deserve respect even as road favs. But App State has a reputation for being giant killers and also deserve respect especially as home underdogs. Coastal enters this year's meeting undefeated and have a huge targets on their backs  while Appalachian St is perfect 2-0 at home. The Mountaineers have  also won 23 of their last 25 home games dating back to the middle of the 2017 season and 6 of 7 meetings  in this series. 

Mountaineers’ 8-0 SU  when coming off a loss the past four seasons. 

Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB Road favorites (COASTAL CAROLINA) - after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 15-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate .

Play on App State to cover 

There is a-lot of crap currently surrounding the Brooklyn Nets thanks to the spot light put on  Kyrie Irving circus. I don't want to get into it here, but it is and will effect performance levels of this talented but some time unfocused team. Chemistry issues were evident during last years play offs and Im betting they wont be rectified at least  in the short term, especially in this environment. Meanwhile, I know the Bucks are playing with a proverbial Championship hangover, but I expect they will be juiced to take down the Nets in this spot play. 

MILWAUKEE is 5-0 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with  or more straight spread covers, team that had a winning record last season are 68-15 L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight spread covers, team that had a winning record last season are 24-4 L/25 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Bucks to cover 

Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career vs  NFC East sides , cashing 4 straight times a s dog including  6 straight victories  versus the Dallas Cowboys. I know the Boyz are playing great ball but  Belichick is a chess master that must be respected at home . New England has cashed in 5 of their L/6 as home dogs, while the Cowboys are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 after playing the Giants which was the case last week. 

NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season . 

 NFL non-division road favorite (DALLAS) of more 3 + points coming off three consecutive home games including a  SUATS win last time out have failed to cover 14 of the L/15 times for a 93% go against conversion rate. 

NFL Road favorites (DALLAS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more point are 18-45 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate.

Play on New England Pats  to cover 

HC Gruden is now just a memory in the minds of this Las Vegas football group. It's a fresh start for them as they can now concentrate on playing football instead of being involved in a controversial circus. Im still a believer in this Raiders group, and here as 4 point dogs vs a Broncos side that is 0-6 ATS L/6 as division favorites we have an edge taking points. Especially considering that this Denver team has gone 24 straight games without scoring  in their first possession of the game , which in itself continually puts them behind the proverbial 8 ball. Note: Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater has failed to cover 7 of 11  home in division games in his NFL career. Raiders are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series and since moving to Las Vegas have won both meetings. 

Play on LV  Raiders to cover

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London

Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are proving that their college careers may have been over hyped at least at this point in their NFL tenures . However, the duo and their team are desperate for a win, and Im betting on a neutral field vs a Dolphins side that has lost 4 straight  we have a situation where a cover is a high potential situation on this line. 

It must be noted that Jacksonville will play their 8th game here in the UK, and have been adopted by many British NFL fans . So this is like a defacto home game for the transplanted Jaguars. 

Note: QB] 10/12/2021 - Tua Tagovailoa is questionable  Sunday vs Jacksonville ( Ribs ) and if he plays will be less than 100%. (Without the young QB in the lineup the Fins have been beaten up by an average of 19 ppg. )

NFL  team vs the money line (MIAMI) - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 4-30 L/37 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. (According to this over powering trend we have  upset potential)

Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover 

 The Miners are playing some very good football as is evident by their 5-1 record  and ranked  in the nation’s Top 20 in both Total Defense and Tackles for Loss.  Recently they have had the advantage from a ATS perspective vs the 2-3 Bulldogs cashing 4 of the L/6 meetings and today Im betting they grab the cheese again. Note: HC Skip Holtz has failed to cover 16 of 26 road games as single digit chalk in his career. So from that data  this is not a role his teams excel in. 

UTEP is 16-5 ATS L/1 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. 

Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - off a road loss against opponent off a double digit road win are 23-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UTEP to cover 

. The Oklahoma Sooners  have made any successes they have had torturous for their fan base and  no victories  vs FBS teams by more than  7 points. This week . Sooners QB Caleb Williams may start again after entering their game last week and rallying his team to a OT victory vs Texas. That was a hugely emotional game for the Sooners and now they may find it difficult to get up for this one, making them vulnerable to cover this matchup. 

OKLAHOMA is 8-22 ATS L/30 vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. Riley is 0-6 ATS  after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of OKLAHOMA.

Patterson is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of TCU.  

CFB  road team (TCU) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 48-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

With Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson back in the lineup,Im betting the wildcats get their mojo back and really give Iowa State all they can handle here at home. This is also a big revenge tilt for the Wildcats who were crushed last season by Iowa State by a 45-0 count. Note: KANSAS ST is 4-0 ATS as a home dog with revenge. 

KANSAS ST is 26-12 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) . KANSAS ST is 22-7 ATS  after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. 

Note:  ISU QB Brock Purdy only has 5 TDs so far this season, and its obvious his WRs and him are not on the same page. Thats not a good look going against a D with hate in their eyes. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS ST) - with 16 total starters returning are 73-33 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

KANSAS ST is 13-1 straight up against IOWA ST since 1992 at home. 

Play on Kansas State to cover 

 Tennessee is starting fast this season and  have outscored their opposition by a  101-13 count  in the first quarter , including scoring s on 11 straight drives over the past two  tilts in the first half of the game. Im betting on another fast start vs a suspect Ole Miss D, and a subsequent underdog cover. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is off a back forth 52-51 win vs Arkansas last week, and will now be in a huge emotional letdown spot. 

OLE MISS is 4-13 ATS   after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

Tennessee is 13-2 L/15 meetings in this series.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OLE MISS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 7-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

CFB home team (TENNESSEE) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Washington St has won 2 straight conference tilts the last time as an underdog which sets up well for a win here vs a inconsistent Stanford allowing 60 more yards than they gain and that has lost 2 of their L/3 games. 
WASHINGTON ST is 13-1 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog.  WASHINGTON ST is 15-1 ATS   off an upset win as a home underdog 

Washington State has won the last four meetings in this series  including 3 as underdogs. 

WASHINGTON ST is 22-9 ATS  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75  or more rushing yards/carry.

CFB  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (STANFORD) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 21-50 for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington St to cover 

Despite of starting their season at 0-5 the  UNLV Rebels  have been competitive of late as was evident in their L/2 road games against Fresno State losing by a 38-30 count and a 24-17 defeat to UTSA. Now here in their home opener vs. Utah State Im betting UNLV has the weapons to cover here vs a Aggies side that can score in bunches, but can also allow a boatload full of points. 

Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

Play on UNLV to cover

Mississippi State is off a bye week and well prepared to take on the Tide. I know there is a perception that Saban and company will be pissed after getting upset last time out and be ready to breath fire, but Im betting it wont be that easy. Note:  Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 0-5 ATS with the Tide  during the regular season in his career when coming off his first loss of the campaign  and going against an above .500 side like Mississippi State. 

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - off a win against a conference rival, after the first month of the season are 44-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miss State to cover 

The Golden Flashes have to be respected in their current form as this sit at the top of the  MAC East Division . They have taken on big 12   Texas A&M and  a couple of Big Ten sides ie  (Iowa and Maryland), and are battle tested .   Last week they smashed a pretty good  Buffalo program  accumulating a whopping  633 yards of offence and are capable of really making  a strong Western Michigan ise feel the heat here this week. Im betting  KSU QB Dustin Crum  be the difference maker with his arm and legs.

Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Golden Flashes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Golden Flashes are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference games.

Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Play on Kent State to cover 

Wow. Big win for Iowa last week, as they came back to win 23-20 after knocking the Penn State Lions starting QB out of the game. This is a huge letdown spot for Iowa and a competitive  Purdue team   will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Iowa HC Ferentz  as a favorite in conference games after defeating an undefeated side , is 0-4-1 ATS  L/5 at home, as well as 0-4-1 ATS vs an above .500 opponent like Purdue .

Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Boilermakers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.

Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Iowa.

Play on Purdue Boilermakers to cover 

Im betting on Wyoming pounding away on the ground and for the home town crowd and thin air of Larime to make life difficult for visiting Fresno this Saturday. 

Bohl is 18-9 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of WYOMING

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 28-62 ATS L/5 seasons for 29 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

 Michigan  State is having a great season so far. But their record is based on beating . sub .500 teams so I wont get to carried away with singing their praises.  Indiana head coach Tom Allen is officially on the hot seat and QB Michael Penix, Jr., needs to stand up and show some moxxy and get  some how get some redemption for an ugly start vs a over rated team with a D that allows 420 plus ypg .” Indiana is well rested and if there was ever a time they make a run its today here and now . Indiana is 4-0 ATS L/4 after a bye week. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Gophers  are. being under rated and if they had not taken a week off vs Bowling Green would be 4-1 right now instead of 3-2.  The Gophers have owned  Nebraska  in the last two here at home  spanking the Huskers  34-7 and 54-21 and today Im betting they get the job done again in the underdog role. 

MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

Fleck is 35-18 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached . 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

 Clemson to me has been less than impressive this season with a 0-5 ATS mark, with their average margin ppg diff clicking in at just +6.4 ppg a far cry from recent seasons. Meanwhile, Coach Babers has the Orange playing some very disciplined defensive football, and they must respected on this Two TD line here at home. 

Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

SYRACUSE is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games .SYRACUSE is 18-3 ATS L/21 in home games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game and  11-1 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game. 

Babers is 7-0 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of SYRACUSE. Babers is 12-3 ATS ( versus good rushing defenses - allowing  3.25 or less rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached in his career. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games is 46-7 L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Marshall at .500 on the season  has not been able to get any kind of momentum this season and have continually been in close games as is evident by   four straight decisions  decided by 7 points or less.  Meanwhile, North Texas after giving Missouri all it could handle  in a 48-35 loss as a 20-point dog, and subsequent cover. In their previous tilt they also showed their ability compete in a 7 point loss to  Louisiana Tech as an 11.5-point underdog which resulted in a cover.  Im betting the Mean Green continue to conjure up the  spirits , and the gambling gods shine on their backers again here vs the Thundering Herd .MARSHALL is 0-9 ATS  L/9 after allowing 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games.

Play on the N.Texas Mean Green 

Philadelphia D has ,held three of its five sides they have faced this season season-low yardage . Thats important against explosive  44 year old future HOF QB  Tom Brady and company. 

In a historical context is must be noted that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU L/7 in  Thursday nighters while Tampa Bay  is just 1-7 ATS in these prime time affairs. 

Basically at this number we have real value and recommend we take the points here with the home dog. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

 Buccaneers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Play on Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

 Georgia Southern under interim head coach Kevin Whitley have looked viable.  The Eagles have won all 7 previous meetings in this series  by an average score of 35.9-11.3  (24.6 ppg diff  average) and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this Thursday night and a definite cover according to my projections. 

S ALABAMA is 15-32 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more, in October games are 11-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

The road team took 6 of 8 meetings between these Western rivals last season, and cashed all 8 times on the puckline. Im betting on a similar situation tonight making getting +1.5 goals here a golden opportunity. Both teams have up graded and much more closely matched than the line might indicate. 

Play on the Vancouver Canucks on the + puckline

Buffalo to me is playing as a front runner for a Super Bowl ticket, at least in their current form and have a very good chance a SU victory as dogs here vs KC. 

BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS  after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 1-11 ATS (L/12 after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. 

Bills QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU in his NFL career against opposition coming off a SUATS win like the Chiefs. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 41-11 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 

I was never a big Trevor Lawrence fan no matter how well he did at the College level. I still maybe wrong but his style not mix well in the NFL and that has been obvious so far as he continues to be intercepted on a regular basis. Meanwhile last week, the Titans  picked up 30 first downs and still found a way to lose vs the Jets in OT. However, Im still in on the Titans this season, and feel strongly they are the better side here. The Titans have victories in  seven of their last eight meetings vs  the Jaguars, with  four of those wins by 21 points or more. Rinse and repeat. Also have not problem fading HC Urban Meyer. 

JACKSONVILLE is 6-17 ATS L/23  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game.JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS  in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. 

TENNESSEE is 3-0 SU L/3 overall vs Jacksonville. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Pittsburgh looks like their in a down cycle this season and continue to deal with a boatload full of injuries. With that said, knowing Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-3 ATS  on the road in his career its not a hard decision to back Denver here today. Note: Ben Rothlisberger is 0-5 ATS L/5 starts as a favorite. 

DENVER is 8-1 ATS  after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Tomlin is 9-23 ATS  off 3 or more consecutive unders as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Denver Broncos to cover 

Tulsa (1-4, 0-1) was blasted  45-10 at home by Houston and now shell shocked will go against an explosive Memphis offense again this week. 

After 3 straight wins Memphis has lost 2 straight . Note: Memphis is 18-8 ATS away versus sub .500 conference opposition  including 9-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss. Meanwhile, Philip Montgomery is 1-14 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 6 points when coming off a defeat and 0-9 ATS in the last nine. In addition,

Tulsa is 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS at home in this series, and the host in Tulsa-Memphis showdowns are just 3-14-1 ATS. 

Play on Memphis to cover 

Utahs new QB Cam Rising has completed 34 of 57 passes for 319 yards this season, with 4 TDs  and has yet to be intercepted and deserves respect. Utah looked good in a win vs Washington State last week and  enter this game with a  9-1 ATS mark off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile, USC despite of a boatload of 4 star prospects are enigmas at this point with inconsistent efforts and have unable to string consecutive wins on the board. 

UTAH is 45-23 ATS L/48 as a road underdogs. 

USC has failed to cover 13 of 20 as PAC 12 home favs and have failed in that role 4 of their L/5 trips to gridiron as hosts. 

CFB team (UTAH) - excellent rushing team ( 4.8 or more  YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 72-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover 

The KentuckyWildcats enter this game against LSU  off their first home victory over Florida since 1986 and are now in a classic emotional letdown situation. Note: Kentucky football program is 13-33 SU S in SEC games after a victory as an  SU as an underdog.With Ed Orgeron’s love affair fading with LSU faithful, you can bet he will be primed to get a win here today and will make sure his young men leave everything on the field. LSU is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. LSU is 10-1 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Orgeron is 18-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of LSU.

NFL home team (KENTUCKY) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for 80% go against conversion rate.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 11-36 ATS L/29 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (LSU) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 36-11 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play on LSU to cover

Western Kentucky has a strong passing attack but today they go against a UTSA D that  ranks 6th in the conference in pass defense and 1st in total defense. On the flip-side the Hilltoppers rank 12th  in the Sunbelt in total defense while the Roadrunners rank 4th in total offense. In my humble opinion we have value with the underdog based on obvious statistical anomalies.

UTSA is 12-3 ATS L/15 as an underdog  , including 6-1 SUATS as a dog of 7 or fewer or points.

W KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. W KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  in October games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W KENTUCKY) - after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more, in October games are 11-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTSA) - off a home win, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 62-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Two strong undefeated teams go head to head here today in a huge Big 10 matchup. From the beginning of the season, I took out futures tickets on the Nittany Lions and Im not about to keep backing them in certain spots , especially as underdogs. Penn State also has revenge on board for a loss to Iowa last season. Note: Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz is 2-7 ATS as a favorite in tilts when both teams are undefeated and the opponent is seeking revenge. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

Boise State has been very competitive this season  and shown flashes of brilliance and according to my projections have the ability to hand with BYU here this afternoon. Im not basing this recommended wager on this stat but its interesting to note, that Boise State is a perfect 21-0 since 1999 in their 6th game of the season.  Also they are 21-1 SU after a loss a favorite as was the case last week vs under rated Nevada.  BYU is 10-23 ATS  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. BYU is 10-23 ATS  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

BOISE ST is 30-16 ATS  as an underdog since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - poor rushing team - averaging 125 or less rushing yards/game are 58-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Boise State to cover 

Colorado State is off a bye week after playing a power 5 team Iowa very tough, and are expecting a big crowd this week. However, an emotional letdown situation should be expected here, against a Spartans side that is under rated according to my power rankings  and off a win last week. 

SAN JOSE ST is 30-13 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. SAN JOSE ST is 11-3 ATS  after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Brennan is 19-10 ATS against conference opponents as the coach of SAN JOSE ST.

Colorado State is 1-6 ATS record in this series.

CFB road team (SAN JOSE ST) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 48-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

San Jose State to cover 

 Auburn is being over rated here vs a Georgia side that despite of big numbers .  The Tigers offense  is well balanced (1,191 rushing and 1,199 passing) and the Tigers D is staunch and capable of slowing Georgias explosive attack. Note:the Tigers’ 22-6 SU and 20-8 ATS L/28 as hosts against undefeated opposition, including 8-1 ATS  as underdogs. 

Auburn to cover 

The Louisville pass defense is  the worst in the ACC. Thats not a good omen vs Virginia's QB Brennan Armstrong and the passing game are bombing away with close to 2,000 yards in the first five games of the season. Overall the Cardinal D is just downright bad and the worst in the ACC, and from matchup perspective an unfavorable situation. Louisville will battle back with some fireworks of their own, but it's their downtrodden D, that gives Virginia the edge. This game is very important to Virginia and Im betting they leave everything on field here. 

Virginia to cover 

Last week, Rutgers (3-2, 0-2) was hammered by a  52-13 count to Ohio State while Michigan State (5-0, 2-0 ) took out a lower tier  Sun Belt opponent in Western Kentucky by a 38-27 count. The Scarlet Knight looked asleep at the wheel last week, but Im betting they will be wide awake here and ready for redemption vs a side that might be just a bit over rated and vulnerable road favs. Note: The Spartans have been out-gained in their last two games while giving uo 1,000 yards.RUTGERS is 6-0 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Rutgers to cover 

Huge letdown this week for Cincinnati after last weeks big time win vs Notre Dame by a 24-13 count easily covering the spread. Im expecting the Bearcats to start slowly here and for the Owls  who are uptrending in my power rankings to grab the cash as substantial underdogs. 

Temple has owned this series of late from a ATS perspective cashing 5 straight meetings and , and on a  a 5-0 ATS run as dogs of 20 or more points. 

Advantage Temple Take the points 

According to my projections this game should be closer to a pickem which gives us an edge taking points here this evening. Both sides defences have allowed season highs in 3 straight games. Some may say the Rams D is superiors, but Wilson and can slice and dice the best of stopping units and here at home, Im betting he will along with a run game that should have success. 

Seattle QB Russel Wilson is 4-0 ATS at home off a win and 8-2 ATS at home as an underdog   including  9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays.

Rams  are just  3-6 SU and  2-7 ATS in division battles on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when favored.  LA RAMS are 3-16 ATS L/19 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  84% conversion rate. .

Play on Seattle to cover

Houston will be a formidable opponent for Tulane , but after playing tough non-conference tilts  with games against UAB, Ole Miss and Oklahoma their more than capable of hanging tough here tonight. HC  Willie Fritz is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in his career on Thursdays .

TULANE is 7-0 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Cougars are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - with 16 total starters returning are 72-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on Tulane to cover 

Washington did not look good last week, in a loss vs Buffalo. Its still early in the season, and some of numbers could easily be skewed or misrepresented . The talent especially on defense remains intact for the football team of DC , and Im betting we see them establish their hard hitting ways this week against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of winning last week lost the stats battle vs the NYG, and their key player QB Matt Ryan looks to be getting more inconsistent with age, and is now owns an overall QB Rating this season of  (87.1) which puts him at  No. 24 overall in the NFL. With that said, Im betting on the Washington D, to disrupt Ryan and for the Football team to deliver the cash to their backers. 

ATLANTA is 15-32 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL team (WASHINGTON) - good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8  or more YPP), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to win 

The Chicago Bears offense and team have been kind of a laughing stock of the early part of this NFL season. Everybody and his dog now wants to take a proverbial piss on Nagy and what many look like a mismanagement of the team, especially on offense. This week I expect instead of Fields under center we s instead get Dalton or Foles, and a team that now has a chip on the shoulders. Remember , pro do not like to be embarrassed, and that Im betting ignites this Bears team , for  at least this week.

Detroit has allowed an average of 31.7 ppg this season, and must also be looked upon with extreme suspicion. 

DETROIT is 5-16 ATS off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less since 1992.CHICAGO is 18-6 ATS in home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Titans coach Mike Vrabel calls Jets' defensive line 'one of the best' and will be that defensive line that will be the difference maker in a cover here today. 

First year HCs  like NYJ Robert Saleh that are 0-3 SU/ATS to start their seasons are 47-16-2 ATS in non-division games.

NY JETS are 16-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. 

TENNESSEE is 16-32 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season .

NYJ are 4-0-1 ATS AFC South opponents at home.

Titans are 3-10 ATS L/10 vs AFC East. 

 NFL Favorites (TENNESSEE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 3-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - terrible passing team ( 5.3 PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense ( 7.3 or more  PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

 . BC enters this game being disrespected despite of a  4-0 record  as it prepares to play its ACC opener. vs a Clemson side that no longer sends shivers down the spines of their opponents.   Clemson's 121st-ranked offense will find the sledding tough against  BC's 20th-ranked defense and thus taking points here is an easy decision.

Clemson is last in the ACC in Yards Per Game and Points Per Game. Advantage BC to cover.

Play on BC to cover 

According to my projections the Ti Cats should be 6 point favs here this giving us value on this line. 

HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS  as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. HAMILTON is 9-1 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 season. HAMILTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

 is 5-19 ATS L/24 in road games vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 6.9 or less passing yards/att. MONTREAL is 16-32 ATS  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 6.4 or less yards/play. 

CFL team (HAMILTON) - after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 8 or less points are 35-12 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

CFL Home teams vs. the money line (HAMILTON) - after allowing 325 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-5 L/25 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.1 ppg. 

Play on Hamilton to cover

Stanford is coming off a loss, to UCLA that saw a 4 point difference in the fourth quarter before the Bruins scored late to pull away. The Cardinal should not be underestimated  here vs  4-0 Oregon and have shown flashes of brilliance this season, as was the case vs the USC Trojans earlier this season and are my choice getting points in this spot play. 

Shaw is 31-19 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of STANFORD.

Play on Stanford to cover 

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin will be highly motivated to pull the upset this afternoon over former boss Nick Saban and Im betting he will get us at least the cover. He knows big Nicks ways. Im expecting future NFL QB Nick Coral  and company to do more than enough damage vs Sabans top tier D. 

Kiffin is 5-1 ATS L/6 as a DD conference dog. Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS L/4 on the road in SEC play as 14 or more point underdogs. 

Mississippi is 11-5 ATS in the last sixteen meetings, and 6-2 ATS on visitors. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ALABAMA) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

Nevada is off a bye week after losing to KState. Now rejuvenated and hungry Im betting on a big effort here this week vs Boise state side that has lost the stats battles in 3 of 4 games this season. The Wolfpack Rank No. 6 overall in the nation in Returning Production  and have  all 22 returning starters from last season and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a inconsistent Cowboys team that is not as dominant of Blue Carpet as the once were. 

Nevada is 6-1 ATS L/7 after a bye. Nevada is 9-1 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS vs a side like Boise coming off a victory.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEVADA) - poor rushing team - averaging 125 or less rushing yards/game are 54-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Play on Nevada to cover 

The Notre Dame Fighting  Irish have won 18 straight regular season tilts and 26 consecutive home games and  have the deeper lineup with more talent than the Bearcats. After watching the Irish against Wisconsin last weeks it's obvious their starting to jell now and are going into this game in peak condition. Hey Cincinnati is a fine team and deserve respect, but as as favorites not so much especially here on the road. It's one thing to roll up on a inconsistent Indiana side, with a negligible history and it's another thing to stroll into Notre Dame and garner a win vs the Irish. While anything is possible, taking points here is the smart money play. 

NOTRE DAME is 8-1 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. Kelly is 10-1 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better in all games he has coached since 1992. Kelly is 12-2 ATS  after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 69-32 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Minnesota was extremely impressive in  a  30-0 road shutout of Colorado a couple of weeks ago and than in a huge emotional letdown spot fell asleep at the proverbial wheel vs non conference opponents Bowling Green and lost a 14-10 sleeper. This week Im betting Minnesota being much more awake and ready for redemption against a Purdue team that is dealing with a crap load full of injuries coming into this game. 

MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.

 MINNESOTA is 2-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 24-12 L/29 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (PURDUE) - after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on Minnesota to cover

Western Michigan has won 3 straight games but this is a bad road matchup for them vs a Buffalo Bulls side that  are 17-1 ATS at home since 2017, including 14-0 ATS in conference games. Lester is 1-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of W MICHIGAN. Lester is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of W MICHIGAN.

BUFFALO is 22-10 ATS  in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

W MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS  as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Owls are up trending in my power rankings and despite of a .500 record at  2-2 SU, they   have  out-gain their opposition  by 56 YPG. Meanwhile, Memphis has proven themselves highly inconsistent this season, and going back a few seasons HC Silverfield 0-6 ATS on the road  in Saturday tilts.  

Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series.

TEMPLE is 19-4 ATS L/23 after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their last game which was the case in a 41-7 win vs Wagner. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-5 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Temple 

Im betting Utah State got caught looking ahead to this tilt vs BYU last week when they suffered a home loss vs Boise State after winning their first 3 games vs Washington State, N.Dakota and Air Force. I know tonight opponent BYU has proven themselves to be a very strong side to this point in the season, but according to my own projections this line is over done, and the home underdog has value . It must be noted that BYU has failed to cover 10 of their L/12 as favorites, and USU head coach Blake Anderson is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in his career when coming off a home defeat which was the case last time out.  

BYU is 1-10 ATS  vs. inconsistent passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Utah State to cover 

These 4-0 teams go head to head here this Friday night in game that Im betting will see the underdog cash and possibly spring the SU upset. Iowa has got to this point with a staunch defense (11 ppg), but their offense is needless to say less than championship caliber scoring just 27 ppg on average which puts them at a disadvantage on the road vs a a side that has also shown a strong D (14.3 ppg), but has also shown an explosive offense (37.3 ppg) while out-gaining opponents my 200+ ypg. 

 4-0 or better college football home underdog versus a 4-0 or better  opponent have cashed 12 of the L/13 opportunities. 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game are 27-7 80% L/5 seasons. 

CFB  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 34-10 L/29 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on Maryland to cover 

CONNECTICUT is 11-1 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season and once again have the edge here in this tilt as favorites. CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 80%  or more of their shots after 15+ games this season. CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS  after scoring 75 points or more in 3 straight games this season.

I know Chicago has been flying high entering this tilt, but it must be noted CHICAGO is 0-9 ATS after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more since entering the WNBA. 

CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game after 15+ games since entering the league.

Connecticut to win /cover

The Dolphins (1-1) will be 4-point underdogs on Sunday against the Raiders, a line that is at least partially inflated by the quarterback situation. Miami will play without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa . However, Brisset his back is a viable  QB and deserves respect as he is above .500 ATS QB in his career with a 17-16-1 record. Meanwhile, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle injury) is less than 100% and may not play.

Raiders are 0-8 ATS L/8 after playing Pittsburgh. 

Flores, meanwhile, is 1-0 against the Raiders. Gruden is 2-5 in his career against the Dolphins.Miami 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in this series. 

MIAMI is 15-4 straight up against LAS VEGAS since 1992.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

What has me looking at Atlanta this week vs NYG was veteran QB Ryans effort  last Sunday vs Tampa Bay that saw him throw for 300 yards in a 48-25 loss at Tampa Bay.Ryan, is showing  consistency for his team as it attempts to work its way down the field.Quote: "I think that's a recipe for success moving forward," Ryan said. "The percentages are much higher of converting drives (and) converting third downs when we are at third and five or less, so I think that's been pretty good so far this year." END Quote. Im not a big believer at this time in the Giants. I know both these teams are 0-2, but one looks more viable than the other. Note:NYG Saquon Barkley's rehab and play on the field is still sub par overall. Yes, there have been flashes of brilliance, but he still has a long way to go. 

ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

Visitor is 8-2 ATS in this series and the Giants are 2-6-1 ATS L/8 as home  favorites.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 24-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Steelers are banged up and have a key injury to T.J. Watts (groin injury) and to me have not looked cohesive this season. Something just not right , while the Bengals have shown some grit so far this season. The Bengals snapped a 10-game losing skid to the Steelers in the second meeting last season, a 27-17 win in Cincy and I wont be surprised of QB Joe Burrows and company find a way to get the straight up win here, and more importantly at least get us the cover. Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3.

Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Bengals are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games in September.

Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

Play on Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

Nebraska looked cohesive vs Oklahoma before succumbing by a  23-16, count and deserve respect here as underdogs . Meanwhile,  Michigan State is  off a  strong 38-17 road victory vs Miami and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation vs a side that has had their number of late . Nebraska 8-1 ATS L/9 and  has won 9-of-11 vs. MSU, and the last two meetings overall.

NEBRASKA is 20-8 ATS L/28  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return. Frost is 20-8 ATS (  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Nebraska to cover 

Kansas State is a well coached team, and know how to win via a tough as nail defense as was evident last week in a 38-17 win vs Nevada. Oklahoma State in their 2nd straight road game will be in tough environment here after their road win vs Boise state last week. Advantage KState. 

KANSAS ST is 7-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB Road underdogs (KANSAS ST) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Kansas State is 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points in this series.

Play on Kansas State to cover

Stanford has won 12 of the last 13 meetings with the Bruins and Im wont be surprised by an upset here in this spot play as home dogs. The Cards took out USC in conference play a couple of weeks ago, and now against a public favorite could easily grab the cash for their betting backers vs a over hyped Bruins team. 

CFB home team (STANFORD) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 30-7 L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

 Rutgers has covered in its last 6 road games and according to my power rankings matchup well vs this Michigan football program. With that said, Im recommending we take the points.

MICHIGAN is 5-18 ATS  after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. MICHIGAN is 6-17 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. Michigan has failed to cover in its last 5 conference games.

Schiano is 21-7 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Road underdogs (RUTGERS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 91-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

Play on Rutgers to cover 

The Roadrunners average 39.3 points per game, 7.3 more than the Tigers surrender (32.0) and have the edge here this week vs a Memphis side in a letdown spot after a upset victory last week vs Mississippi State. 

MEMPHIS is 10-22 ATS  as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 

CFB home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Louisville is coming off a top tier  42-35 win at home over UCF last Friday night and will now be in a huge letdown scenario vs a desperate Florida State program. Louisville, when coming off  a victory as host win as a dog of more than 7 points, are a lowly 28-49-2 ATS dating back 41 seasons. 

Norvell is 9-1 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached .

Play on Florida State to cover

The Tigers' may not be as proficient as the early prognosticators thought as is event by the offense ranking 114th nationally and DJ Uiagalelei ranking 88th in passing yards per game . Meanwhile,  NC State ranks 16th in total defense and 30th on offense behind and average 455 YPG this season as QB Devin Leary shows his top prowess. With that said we have an edge here taking points. 

NC STATE is 33-17 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 148-87 ATS L/29 years for a 63% conversion rate.

Play on NC State to cover

I believe according to my projection matchups that the Flashes are well suited to hang tough here vs a inconsistent Maryland football program. Maryland  are just 1-17 SUATS in their last eighteen games when coming off a conference victory which was the case in their win vs Illinois.

KENT ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

MARYLAND is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

MARYLAND is 7-20 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season. 

Lewis is 9-2 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of KENT ST.

Play on Kent State to cover 

After last weeks fiasco in Wyoming where Ball State was annihilated, we now have value with a MAC championship team, that must not be underestimated. The Cardinal have won the last two meetings vs Toledo and according to my matchup projections have an edge as underdogs in this spot play. Its obvious to me at least that Cards are in a championship hangover mode, but should be wide awake. 

Candle is 3-12 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of TOLEDO. 

8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss of 20-plus points

Play on Ball State to cover 

UMass did not look completely out of place against  Boston College or Eastern Michigan and stayed with a 17 point margin, and according to my power rankings are up-trending. Yes, they were at close to bottom of my rankings, but non the less they are much more formidable opposition than they were last season when they lost by 34 to Coastal Carolina. 

CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or better YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 35-72 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UMass to cover

Boston College has looked strong to this point in the season as they are off to a  3-0 start , outscoring their opposition by a  124-31 count. Today vs what has been an explosive Eagles offense, Im betting Missouris crap defense that allows a ugly 455.7 YPG will get run over in a big way. I know the tigers can really pile point on but, BC has shown a strong D, allowing just 256 ypg and is well suited to slow down the Missouri locomotive. 

MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON COLLEGE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game and are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Padres starter VELASQUEZ is 6-0  against the money line vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage of .430 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) He may not be considered a top tier hurler but he is obviously motivated when going against strong opponent. 

SAN DIEGO is 19-3  against the money line in home games revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 3 seasons.SAN DIEGO is 20-6 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, in September games are 52-84 L/24 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Diego Padres to win 

 Charlotte took out  the Blue Raiders 34-20 last season  as 5 point home dogs under HC Will Healy. That was the Niners first victory in this series in 5 meetings. I like the grit that Charlotte plays with and Middle Tenn state may not inspire some bettors, but here in revenge mode vs a home side that has only covered 3 of 8 games as FBS chalk my projections estimate a possible upset and cover by the visitors. MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Middle Tenn State to cover 

Everyone and his dog loves the Carolina Panthers , and the lines-makers are following suit and almost completely discounting the Texans ability to hang tough here and get the cover. I know their are some negative images put into the minds of the public, because  franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson has been made inactive because of on going legal issues  . But overall Im betting his absence is actually a good thing and makes this Houston team more cohesive chemistry wise. Ill recommend we take the points here even with Mills in at QB. * By the way Mills is tough as nails, and he will have a pro bowl left tackle in the lineup to keep him afloat here tonight in prime time. 

Carolina 0-6 ATS L/6 Thursday nighters. 

Texans 8-2 ATS on Thursdays. 

NFL home underdog of 7  points  or more with a  .500  record or better , going against an undefeated side are 31-9 ATS L/40 seasons. . 

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 32-7 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Everyone and his dog is jumping off the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon. Last week they lost in OT to the Raiders, and now the football world believes in their demise after a sub par 2020 campaign. I however, am not one of those skeptics, and still believe this is a talented team that deserves respect as underdogs at home vs a very public side in KC. Hey I know Patrick Mahomes and company are a top tier group, but they have had problems covering of late in games that are deemed to be considered close by linesmakers like this game . Note: KC is 10-0 SU in regular season tilts  but  just 0-9-1 ATS in one-score games since the start of last season. 

It must also be noted that Ravens QB Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career,  while winning 15 of 21 home games  His only game as a home dog during that victorious stretch was the season before last . How did he respond to that , well Ill tell you. His team won as 3 point dogs to Football god Tom Brady  of New England  by a lopsided  37-20 count. Im a believer and will back the Raves to cover.

Harbaugh is 10-2 ATS  in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover

Sometimes the pundits make to big a deal of week 1 results, and this is what Im betting into here this week. Minnesota ,looked a little uneasy and made mistakes in their first game against under rated Cincinnati. Penalties and false starts etc,. However, despite of what the so called experts say, they will have a better offensive line this season if they stay healthy, and  the D, Im betting can and will deal with the mobile  Cards QB Murray. As big chunks of public money come in on the Cards Ill swing the other way with the maligned Vikings. Zimmer is 6-0 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA.

Vikings are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss.

ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS L/18 in home games after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game . Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

 Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

MINNESOTA is 12-4 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.Underdog is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Vikings are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Vikings to cover 

Cincinnati has a deep scouting report on Dalton the ex Bengals and current Bears QB starter, and will be well prepared to slow his production options. Plus Chicagos offensive line looks wobbly at best.  I also suggest that the Bengals D, is very under rated , and that QB Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could easily be big stories in the NFL this season. With that said, Im betting on Burrows to take advantage of the Bears weak secondary, for big gains, and for the Bengal D to stand tall against a QB thats seen his best days pass him by. 

CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS L/20 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . 

NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992 at Chicago. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

My projections and power rankings suggest this line should be no higher than 10 points and thus according to my estimates we have value attached to under rated Fresno State. It must be noted UCLA is getting way to much respect for their win vs LSU. Note: The Bruins have failed to cover 6 of the L/8 games vs non conference opposition as a home favorite. Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS L/5 vs Pac 12. Fresno State is also 8-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 10 or more points.

CFB home team (UCLA) - excellent rushing team ( 4.8 or more YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 33-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 90-46 L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Fresno State to cover

The Boise State Broncos are  still looking for steady direction under new head coach Andy Avalos and inconsistencies have looked common here early this season. The one consistency I do see, is that the defense has some work to do, and here against an explosive Oklahoma State squad difficulties will definitely  arise here against  Cowboys star QB Spencer Sanders and company. Note:  The Cowboys beat BSU, 44-18, the  last time these teams met back in  2018. 

Gundy is 38-24 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry and the lines-makers are well aware of this as they have set a high totals count on this tilt. When projecting scoreboard tallys is become obvious to me that getting points here is a value play.Fritz is 13-4 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached since 1992. Note: Rebels 1-9 ATS  as a favorite when coming off consecutive victories . Ole Miss HC Kiffin has failed to cover 13 of the L/20 vs a non conference opponent. 

Play on Tulane to cover 

The Stanford Cardinal are off a huge win last week against USC, and will now be in a letdown situation this week here on the road in a SEC  venue at Vanderbilt. The Cardinal are 10-23 ats L/33 times off a underdog win. Vanderbilt is also off a \upset win, and Shaw and company are just 0-8-1 ATS L/9 vs these types of sides.

CFB Home underdogs (VANDERBILT) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS L/29 seasons for 84% conversion rate.

Play on Vandy to cover 

I have some futures tickets on Penn State and feel they are the most under rated team in the nation. While my assumptions may prove incorrect at some point , - for now  I feel strongly about their talent levels, and believe they can beat any team in the nation if healthy including their SEC opponent today Auburn who return just 9 starters from last years squad.  Auburn has blown away some sub par competition in their first two games, but here today their are in deep and that will show in the final score.

Penn State currently 2-0 SU/ATS this season  is 6-0 ATS/SU L/6 dating back to last season. 

Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is  12-0 ATS over the last twelve games when coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories. 

Play on Penn state to cover 

. The Falcons are coming off a 23-3 win over Navy and Im betting they will be a in a letdown situation this week vs a under rated Utah State side.Utah State has averaged 311 passing yards per game through its first two tilts and the defense has only surrendered a total of 214 rushing yards and must be respected here as underdogs. 

Troy Calhoun is 19- 33 ATS ras conference chalk, and has failed to cover 16 of their L/24 after playing  Navy, including 3-9 ATS as favs. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-9 ATS L/29 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Utah state to cover 

This tilt is based on power ranking and projection output that favor the underdog covering this number. Each of the last 3 meetings between these CUSA rivals have been decided by 8 points or less. Im betting on similar results here thus giving us value with the home underdog. Last time out UAB was eaten alive by Georgia and that can be humiliating. College kids dont deal with defeat as well as pros do and despite of wanting to come back out here and get redemption, Im betting they wont be as able as many might think. Note:Clark is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of UAB.

Play on North Texas to cover

Thanks to Georgias thunderous start to this campaign, Im betting that the lines-makers and public have got ahead of themselves and that we have value here with the underdog. Note:

Georgia has failed to cover 8 of their L/11 as conference home favorite  of  17 or more  points,. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points. Also from a personal perspective Im a big fan of  HC Shane Beamer,  and what he brings to this Gamecocks football program. Pride and grit Im betting gets us a slice of Georgia pie here this Saturday. 

Smart is 0-6 ATS  in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of GEORGIA.

GEORGIA is 7-21 ATS  in home games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game ( that happened vs UAB last week). 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

Well rested Montreal showed some explosive offensive pop last time out  when they put 51 points on the board in a win vs Ottawa and Im betting that they continue to produce on their home field this week in what Im predicting will be a cover. Note: BRITISH COLUMBIA is 0-6 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

CFL team vs the money line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - an average offensive team (23 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-32 PPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 13-39 SU l/25 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Montreal to cover 

  The defending MAC champs Ball State had a game 8-game winning streak. come to end at Penn State.  Despite of losing to a top tier Big 10 team they did not look out of place and deserve respect here in Laramie this week.  Meanwhile, Wyoming,  beat Northern Illinois 50-43  last week, and Im having doubts about their overall ability to be a Mountain West contender.   

BALL ST is 22-6 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALL ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on Ball State to cover

Both these teams worked hard for wins last week, and now with both in an emotional letdown situation, the offensive fireworks may start slowly, with home field advantage taking precedent for me with Memphis. note: Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC opposition with an above .500 record  including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. 

CFB home team (MEMPHIS) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 28-6 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Memphis to cover

Northwestern is just 3-7 in its last 10 road games and do not instill confidence in being road favorites at an SEC venue , even though its at Duke. The Wildcats lost more returning production from last year  than any other FBS side, and cohesion going forward especially on the road will be an issue, especially with top tier defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz. 

NORTHWESTERN is 9-21 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.

Fitzgerald is 17-32 ATS in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Cutcliffe is 24-9 ATS  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of DUKE. Cutcliffe is 20-9 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DUKE.Cutcliffe is 33-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of DUKE.

Play on Duke to cover 

Purdue is 8-1 ATS  L/9 as 7 or more point underdogs , and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm has 18 starters back from last season, and deserve respect here as a pup vs a retooling Notre Dame program. 

Kelly is 8-19 ATS  off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Purdue to cover  

Kansas State has lost  QB, Skylar Thompson, to a knee injury , and there is no news on when he will return. So now we get to bet into a underdog line, on a home side, with a strong D, and viable enough attack to make life difficult for their Mountain West opponents Nevada.  I know Nevada beat Cal, but their ground game only produced 61 yards in that game and Im betting they have problems moving the chains again, via their ground game, and will bump into problems through the air vs the a under rated Kansas State secondary. The Wolfpack are 0-5 SU vs Big 12 . 

Kansas State to cover 

Gophers lost top tier  RB Mohamed Ibrahim for the season but still have enough backup talent to be able to cope with that loss behind RB Treyson Pott who rushed for a 178 yards and 2 TDS last time out. After watching the Gophers play Ohio State tough in their opener Im betting Fleck and company are under rated and deserve respect getting points even  on the road. 

MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons

CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 36-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota to cover

Indiana was humiliated by Iowa in a ugly 34-6 beatdown in their opener, and now need swift redemption against a top tier unit  in what Im betting is a must win situation for the Hoosiers here against a tough Cincinnati football program on a 11 game reg season win streak. Im bolstered and confident in backing Indiana after watching them smash Idaho last week, and feel strongly they dont go down without an all out fight here at home. 

INDIANA is 7-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Fickell is 1-5 SU on the road in  Big Ten play , including 0-5  SU when his team is above .500. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 79-34 ATS L/29 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 

 Miami Fl QB D'Eriq King, leads this experienced  Canes team . King  Im betting will use  veterans  to punch through a over hyped Michigan State squad. Look for running back Cam'Ron Harris, tight end Will Mallory and receivers Mike Harley and Charleston Rambo to unload with big numbers today. Just a quick note: Losing to Alabama is not something that should impact a negative connotation towards Miami, and their close win vs a under rated and always tough App State side,  the Canes should be looked upon more favorably. On the flip side Michigan State beating a depleted and rebuilding Northwestern team and than an  a FCS side should also not suddenly catapult the Spartans to football god status. With that said, Im betting the right side is favored and there is value laying points at 7 points or less. 

Play on Miami fl to cover 

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, is out with an injury and now  Taylor Heinicke will be under center for the Washington Football team . He’s made two NFL  starts , both at home that ended in losses and he could easily end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard again. 

Judge is 6-0 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS.

NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons and Giants starting QB was the starter in all those tilts and will be again tonight. 

NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 94-160 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

This is just to many points to pass up on according to my projections and power rankings. Because   of Ohios loss to FCS school last week Duquesne we have a tainted line to bet into here with the underdog . Im betting on Ohio doing what they do best and pounding the ball on the ground here which will eat up clock and help keep UL Lafayette off the field. 

The Bobcats are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight Thursday games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are just  2-8 ATS L/10 as a 14-point or more favorite.

CFB Road underdogs (OHIO U) - team from a second tier division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference are 23-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio. to cover 

 Black- and-Silver bring a 5-1 ATS record on Monday night games into this tilts including  3-0 SUATS the last three at home . Im looking for these positive numbers to continue here at  Allegiant Stadium  vs a banged up Baltimore  side missing some key offensive cogs and that was not as potent last season on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 5-10 SUATS L/8 seasons vs the AFC West, including 0-4 ATS when favored by 5 or less points.  Raiders QB Carr is 4-2 as a starter on Monday nights, including wins in his past three Monday starts and takes my money here tonight. 

 Home team is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings in this series. 

Play on the Vegas Raiders to cover

Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 28-1 L/28 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.9 ppg which qualifies on this spread line. 

The new quarterback for the Carolina Panthers Darnold has proven inconsistent during his career. Im betting his inability for stability to continue vs his former team. Considering how well the Jets internal scouting report is on him , this should be a bad bounce back start for the play caller.Matt Rhule is in his second season with Carolina after a 5-11 record in 2020 and I just don't like what they offer overall, even against a revamped Jets side.Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. 

Take the points with the NYJ to cover