JAMAICA CLASSIC - Final Rnd - Montego Bay Convention Centre - Jamaica

Jeff Neubauers Bronx crew ( Fordham) enter this season their a program that can finally give teams a run for their money and pull of upsets. That was not the mindset before this HC took over. Most recently they have beaten 9 of the 13 teams in the Atlantic 10, upsetting VCU in Rhode Island thanks to a stingy D and matchup very well  vs todays opponent Tulane on a neutral court.

TULANE is 1-10 ATS  L/11 versus good defensive teams - allowing 64  or less points/game.

Neubauer is 25-7 ATS    in road games versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of  42% or less in all games he has coached  in his career.

Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick like TULANE - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 5-25 ATS L/20 season for a go against conversion rate of 83% for bettors.

Play on the Fordham to cover 1 unit reg selection

PUERTO RICO TIP OFF - Final Rnd - HTC Center - Conway, SC

Leon Rice has made this Boise State program a legitimate value line side, and have 20 or more wins in 6 of 7 seasons Rice has coached the team and have the best player sin the Mountain West on their side Chandler  Hutchinson ( 17.4 ppg). there are some changes but this team has tremendous work ethic can shoot darts from the perimeter. Meanwhile, Iowa State, despite of recent successes are a team in a rebuilding mode, after some key heavy player personel losses from last season, and it may take them time mature and jell this season with the younger group now on the floor. Right now Iowa State is fad material against this time of team in a wait see type situation.

BOISE ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 after 3 consecutive non-conference games.

Play on Boise State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Samford has 6 talented guards and must not be underestimated, after showing us their tenacity last season with a 20 win campaign. I'm betting they will have three point guards on the floor this afternoon and go small, which will give Wis Milwaukkee some problems. If they have to go big, they can do that also with the like s of 6'5 Denzel-Dyson and Cunningham at the post. A new head coach in Wis Milwaukee  has many wondering how this program will form going forward with Baldwin at the helm, he inherits a side that finished last in the Horizon league standings last season  that has hands full with the cupboard fairly empty.   I'm not sold on this team doing much this season and as far as being favs today, I expect they will be lucky to come out of this game with a win , little lone a cover.

SAMFORD is 14-2 ATS   versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or better.SAMFORD is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game.

Play on Samford to cover 1 unit reg selection

TB look like viable bets here as they come off a 15-10 win vs the Jets last week. I expect them to carry that  confidence of that victory here this week, into this tilt vs a Miami side that has been outgained in 7 of its L/9 games by an average of 66 ypg. The Fins are worse than their 4-5 record, and must not be over estimated in their ability to cover or win here even at home. The Fish have failed to cover 5 straight in this series, and are 1-8 ATS overall. Look for Buccaneer B Ryan Fitzpatrick to  just enough to get team to the promised land in game of two downtrodden sides.

MIAMI is 3-12 ATS  L/15 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game .TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in weeks 10 through 13 over the last few seasons.TAMPA BAY is 17-6 ATS  L/23 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games .

NFL team vs the money line like Miami - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 3-29  SU dating back 24 seasons for a go against SU conversion rate of 91% for bettors.

NFL Home teams like Miami - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 18-51 ATS since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 1 unit reg selection

Its taken me some time to be persuaded that the Rams are for real. Well this week, I've finally come to the conclusion they are. After consistently beating up on opponents  winning 4 straight and outscoring their L/3 opponents by a 117- 24 count their cross reference power rankings have skyrocketed.  With that said I;m sold on the Rams abilities and will back them today vs a what I still believe is a over rated Minnesota Vikings group that showed some vulnerabilities defensively last week by allowing Washington to put 30 points on the board against them.  I'm also betting Case Keenum  the upstart QB of the Vikings does not matchup well against this Rams smash mouth defense very well, and could find himself on his back quite a bit this week.

NFL team vs the money line like the LA Rams - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 25-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection

CHARLESTON CLASSIC - Final Rnd - TD Bank Arena - Charleston, SC

Both these teams won their first  games, but have both loss their L/2. Indiana St  has a history of playing teams tough , despite of having some tough luck from a win perspective. Last season, 18 of their 31 games were decided in the L/2 minutes, and 6 games went ot OT. Now with a little bit more determination, and a better recruiting class, I'm betting they remain consistent on this front, and according to my cross reference rankings matchup well vs this particular opponent and could easily win this game SU.

OHIO U is 3-11 ATS L/14 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game.

Play on Indiana St to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kings Rice's Monmouth group have been a tremendous MAAC program over the L/4 seasons. they have captured back to back 20 wins seasons and captured a reg season league championship.  Yes, they no longer have 6 returning starters but the recruiting class is strong, especially on offense, and can  finally get this team over the hump and into the NCAA tourney. Meanwhile, Virginia, a side known for their stifling defense, is still a strong team despite of new faces, and some unknowns, but this line according to my own early season numbers is a little bloated, and based somewhat on their pedigree rather than the product on the floor.

MONMOUTH is 14-5 ATS  L/19  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record and is 13-3 ATS  L/16 versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots .

Play on Monmouth to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada owns a 2-8 record on the season, thanks in part to what must be considered an atrocious defense, especially on the road where they have allowed an average of 40.4 ppg.  The Wolfpacks only saving grace has been a sometimes explosive offense, but today against a very strong San Diego State D, allowing an average of just 18.8 ppg their in big trouble vs a team that is 18-0 SU and   12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a losing record , with he average score clicking in at SD St 37.4 opposition 8.5.  Add to that Rocky Longs, great late season runs of late that have seen him go 9-0 SU 8-0-1 ATS in his L/4 games of the season when coming off a DD ATS win which happened last time out in a 52-7 ATS blasting of San Jose State. No mercy rule in effect here tonight.

CFB road team vs. the money line like Nevada - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 1-34 SU losing SU by an average of 26.1 ppg.

 CFB  home team vs. the money line like San Diego State - team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 29-1 SU winning by an average of 24.2 ppg.

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Trail Blazers enter into this game in cohesive form and were held to a season-low scoring output in an 86-82 loss to the Sacramento Kings on Friday night. Actually the Kings matchup well vs Portland and once again look like they will give problems to the Blazers inconsistent offense.The Trail Blazers have been held below 100 in five straight games and are averaging 94.8 points in that stretch. I know the Kings don't inspire bettors but, from a point spread perspective matchup well vs the host team, and are my recommended side here this evening.

Trail Blazers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.Trail Blazers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points like Portland  - after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less against opponent after scoring 90 points or less. are 75-126 ATS L/21 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Sacramento to cover 1 unit reg selection

Gonzaga was  a few possessions away from a national championship last season,  and enter this game as big favs as they should be. The group while going through some changes, will still be hugely talented as  HC Few is known to be a master recruiter. From a depth perspective, their maybe deficiencies, but as long as Gonzaga's core stays healthy they should be dominant again. Meanwhile, Utah State remains a strong offensive team, leading the conference FG %, last season, but at the same time their are defensive short comings which were also  obvious to, and  I don't think were addressed over the summer. With that said, Gonzaga may not be the juggernaut they were last season, but their still a force to be reckoned with, and must respected as 8 possession/conversion rate favorite vs this type of team.

CFB Home teams as a favorite or pick like Gonzaga - after scoring 95 points or more, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are a bankroll expanding 31-6 ATS dating back 5 seasons.

CFB Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Gonzaga - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 28-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Gonzaga to cover

Pacific under former NBA player HC Stoudamire are a team that should be respected as underdogs in this spot. the coach has a lot of respect from his players because of his playing career in the big leagues and has a good rapport with the players. He's done a fine job with this program, and if a few guys like Reynolds and Small  catch fire this season , this team will be surprise a lot of pundits. Meanwhile, Nevada, the Mountain West reg season champs, enter this game with a big time reputation under HC Musselman, but the caveat here comes via their off season losses, which made up a bulk of their offense. Yes, the Pack have looked good in their first three games, but laying this much lumber on the road , vs a feisty/crafty Pacific group still makes them fade material according to my own numbers. Note: Pacific lost 89-80 to Stanford a quality PAC 12 program, and have the ability to stay within the number here again tonight.

Pacific is 7-2 SU l/9 in home games vs Nevada.

CBB team like Nevada- off a road win, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 7+ spread covers in last 8 games are just 8-21 L/29 SU for a go against 72% conversion rate.

Play on the Pacific to cover 1 unit reg selection

In the last 6 seasons, Cal Poly Slo has ranked no worse than 32nd nationally in turnover percentage. When I look at certain underdogs this kind of thing stands out to me. This is the mind set that is instilled in this team. Last season injury woes destroyed any chance this team of making a top 3 run in the conference, but this season, they are being very under rated and could surprise some pundits. If they shoot just a bit better than last seasons 45% FB conversion rate we have a strong side to back as DD dog vs a Santa Clara side retooling after some key departures last season.

Take the points with Cal Poly Slo

Maryland has won 3 straight teams while Bucknell has lost three straight.
These teams are currently operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. Maryland grabbed 24 wins last season, and are even better than advertised this season.

MARYLAND is 14-4 ATS  after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds with the average margin of victory coming by 14.1 ppg.

Play on Maryland to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Boston Celtics,  are off a top tier win over the reigning NBA champion Golden St Warriors, and tonight put their 14-game winning streak on the line when they travel to play an Atlanta Hawks .

Atlanta  a team in  rebuilding mode, came out fired up last time out on Wednesday and beat a sleepy looking Kings team in conclusive fashion. The Hawks really exerted a lot of energy in that tilt, and might not have the electricity needed to put forth another strong effort here vs a over powering side.  After shooting 63 percent, in that above mentioned win, a reversion to the norm against a tremendous defensive team must be expected. I'm betting as this game progresses, the Celtics will pull away for a comfortable victory.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Celtics - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 33-8 ATS dating  back 21 seasons for a  81 % conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

No. 19 North Carolina State  wants this game badly and  is on the verge of something special if they can get a 9 win season, stay in the top 25 and garner a big pay day with a top tier Bowl appearance. Needless to say North Carolina State is very motivated entering this tilt against a over rated Wake Forest program that despite of a explosive 64-43  win last week, vs Syracuse still allowed a whopping 621 yards on defense, and in the game before that allowed 710 yards to Notre Dame. I just don't like them today vs a a football program that has owned them of late winning three straight SU/ATS by an average of 22 points per game and are 8-1 L/9 in this series when the Deacons are off a win. I'm also betting on Wake Forest to be in an emotional letdown state , after last week astounding come back win.

WAKE FOREST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Demon Deacons - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games are 13-44 ATS for a76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on N.C State to cover 1 unit reg selection

2K CLASSIC - WOUNDED WARRIOR - Round 1 - Curb Event Center - Nashville, TN

Belmont is an extremely talented team, and will be out to lay down a beat down vs Houston Baptist this Saturday after wins vs Middle Tenn State and Vanderbilt and a hard fought road loss to Washington blowing a lead late. Yes, the Huskies made it to the CIT last season, and are a decent program in a lesser conference , but they are very much over matched here  as they were against Providence in a 84-55 loss in their opener this season. It must also be noted that the Huskies are reloading and need time to jell, which is never a good thing when playing against this kind of explosive opponent.

Play on Belmont to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ford the coach of Tennessee State is a guy I respect, but today his team is in over their heads in my humble opinion vs a offensively explosive Middle Tennessee State hoops program. Ford built last teams squad around the now departed Tahjere McAll and all OVC pick, but now the cupboard may be a little empty on top tier talent, and  considering his three returning guards shot consistency was awful I'm betting defense will be the name of the game. Unfortunately theirs only so much a group like this can do vs a side that could easily find it itself in the NCAA tourney . 

Play  Middle Tennessee State to cover

I've kept an eye on Old Dominion , as I have been looking for improvement over the season, and I can see their on a upward trajectory. Last week vs FIU as DD road dogs, they took a 37-30 win in a game they actually dominated despite of the slight 7 point difference. The Monarchs freshman QB  Steven Williams, continues to improve as their starting QB was injured earlier in the season. He had a 168 yards rushing, and 3 TDS in last weeks game, and give Old dominion the edge this week, vs a Rice team that can be best described as futile, allowing 40 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. Note:OLD DOMINION is 7-0 ATS  L/7 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game Last year winning SU by an average of 13.7 ppg. the Owls lost to the Monarchs by a 45-42 count as 7 point favorites, and look like weak dogs this week vs a Old Dominion side that is 16-0 SU L/16 as chalk, and 10--1-1 L/12 against the spread.

CFB Road underdogs like Rice - lower tier team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

After back to back losses to Miami Fl and Georgia Tech I'm sure this Virginia Tech Hokies group feels downtrodden. With really nothing left o play for I cannot see them performing at optimal speed here today giving credence to my recommendation on taking a Pittsburgh team that needs a win badly to get a Bowl invite. In the past no matter which team has been better at the time, it seems the Panthers have found a way to be competitive as their 9-1 ATS and 6-3 SU record in this series would indicate. Overall Pittsburghs been a tough out on the road of late cashing 6 of their L/7 away as dogs, and are 6-2 ATS L/8 as conference dogs of 13 points or more,.

CFB road team like Pittsburgh - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are  95-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors .

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Carolina has struggled for most of this season , thanks to a defense, that has allowed 45 ppg  during their 2017 campaign , and also a  offense that has generated just 23.8 ppg. I know visiting Cincinnati may not inspire bettors but this is a very winnable game for them. The Bearcats have shown life,  and some upward trajectory in games vs Navy, SMU and a recent upset win vs Tulane, and are a viable side to back in this tilt of downtrodden sides. In other words , the lesser of two evils, is the choice here today. ( Lay the FG with the Bearcats)

E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return losing SU by an average of  11.2 ppg.

E CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS  L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and 0-7 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.E CAROLINA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 against conference opponents and 0-6 ATS  L/6 in November games .E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS L/9after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Carolina  - after playing a game at home, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas since their ugly opening loss to Maryland have steadily improved under Tom Herman, and I don't think we have seen them at their very best quite yet and could easily see them in top form today as they need one more win to secure a bowl bid. Meanwhile,  West Virginia already has a bowl game in their December plans,  and may not be as motivated as their opponents. With that said, I'm betting we have an edge vs a W.Virginia side that has  not faired well as home chalk of late vs .500 or above conference  opposition  going 3-11 ATS . Meanwhile, the LongHorns HC Herman is 8-1 ATS L/7 as a underdog lifetime and has covered 11 of his L/13 vs a power 5 football programs and proved their metal in a recent road win vs Iowa State a home win vs KState, and two hard fought close losses to Oklahoma State by 3 points and a 5 point loss to Oklahoma. Note: My own projections tell me Texas will score 22 points or more, which is a good omen, as TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 when they score 22 to 28 points over the last few seasons.

 CFB road team like the Longhorns - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Denver Nuggets are playing with confidence right now and are  5-1 on their recent homestand.  Their winning attitude was dealt a blow last time out, against the Portland Blazers, on the road , but they are more than capable of picking themselves up and get back to business here tonight in the high altitudes of the Mile High City where they own a strong home court advantage. Note: DENVER is 18-8 ATS  L/26 off a road loss. Meanwhile, the Pelicans despite of having offensive juggernauts Davis and Cousins on the floor continue to play lazy defense,  are allowing their opposition  to shooting 42 percent from long range over the last five games and New Orleans has allowed 16 3-pointers in three of the past four games. Those are ugly numbers, and here in the thin air of Denver, I;m betting their defensive acumen will be tested once again as will their lagging conditioning and two way transitional play.

Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southwest.

With Three days off and the expected  return of guard Gary Harris  Im betting helps propel the Nuggets   against the New Orleans Pelicans and get us to promise land. Lay the points.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

My early season CBB projections and wagering recommendations are based on a very old system that I have formulated . It dates back almost 14 years, and takes into consideration injuries, line moves,  the systems implemented by each program, past historical trends (short long term) , and head to head cross reference players and coaching matchups. Today according to those above mentioned criteria,

New Mexico to cover

Western Kentucky does not look like the powerhouse it has been over the last few seasons, but Middle Tennessee State according to my own cross reference power ranking suggest that neither are the Blue raiders. Both sides have identical records . I know that Midd Tenn State has won 2 straight games convincingly , but those were against lowly UTEP and Charlotte. Meanwhile, W.Kentucky played Vanderbilt and Marshall very tough in back to back games, and despite of losing were looking better than the pundits might have you expect. Yes, the Hilltoppers as mentioned above may not be as potent some of their past incarnations, but are very viable home underdogs in this spot and have more than 50% chance of pulling off a straight up win.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS  L/10 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins  

W.Kentucky is 6-2 ATS L/8 at home while Midd Tenn State is 1-6 ATS L/7 CUSA road tilts.

W KENTUCKY is 22-8 ATS  L/30 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Thunder bring three-game win streak to San Antonio and are showing some signs of life of late, and look like their finally starting to jell, with Carmelo Anthony and Paul George still getting acclimated to playing with former MVP Russell Westbrook . Spurs reserve guard Manu Ginobili said of the Thunder. "When you make such big changes and you put together so many alpha players, it takes a little bit of time." END QUOTE. Tonight against the banged up Spurs, who are without either star forward Kawhi Leonard or point guard Tony Parker, the Spurs are a patch work side, and are vulnerable to being taken down even here on their own home floor. Last time out the Spurs lost  98-86 to the Wolves, and looked a little awkward in the loss, something I'm not used to seeing from Popovich and company. Tonight I'm fading them here at home as it looks at the moment the key losses and injuries are finally catching up with them. 

NBA team vs the money line like the THUNDER - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 44-10 for a 82% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

LATE UPDATE. My early season CBB projections and wagering recommendations are based on a very old system that I have formulated . It dates back almost 14 years, and takes into consideration injuries, line moves,  the systems implemented by each program, past historical trends (short long term) , and head to head cross reference players and coaching matchups. Today according to those above mentioned criteria, Rice is the superior side, and I can see them winning this SU according to my own projections.

 South Dakota State to covert

Miami (6-8) travels to D.C.  to play Friday night's rematch against the Washington Wizards (9-5) . This the second of back to back games vs each other which I'm betting favors the visitors covering. The Wizards were admittedly the better of the teams on Wednesday night when they played, but what I noticed was Washington's ugly  perimeter defense, that  saw the  Heat make 13 3-pointers -- four more than Washington -- and shot 43.3 percent from beyond the arc.  The Wizards weakness is not finding ways to stop Wall or Beal , but instead consistently convert from downtown on  treys. Something I'm betting the heat can do again, and get us the cover. The Wizards despite of their talented offense, are lazy in the rebound department, as was also evident in the Heat's 15-8 advantage on second-chance points. Center Hassan Whiteside, who had 14 points and a game-high 21 rebounds is key here tonight, and now after getting acclimated to what the Wizards bring to the floor I expect Miami to be much better here in the 2nd go around.

WASHINGTON is 5-16 ATS L/21  in home games off a road win .

MIAMI is 10-0 ATS  L/10 in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, which has just happened.

NBA team like Washington - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are just 4-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 88% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 1 unit reg selection

Columbia took on a new coach last season, Jim Engles, and they had a decent season just missing out on the Ivey League play offs finishing 5th. He was an assistant their prior to that, so he pretty well kept the schemes and systems in place, which is a fast paced 3 point downtown type of hoops. He only had one starter back last season but the team still scored an average of 71.9 ppg and were ranked third from beyond the arc. Now that this group is more seasoned and the newcomers more talented, his system I'm betting will generate better results behind a lagging D, that should also be better this season. Meanwhile, Penn State is a big lumbering team now with the addition of a 7 footer in the off season, but their slower to. I'm expecting them to find the speed game here a little tiring on them, and for Columbia to be able to keep the back door open with their ability to down the trey, making Columbia a viable underdog in this spot.

COLUMBIA is a long term  43-24 ATS  as a road underdog of 10 or more points.

Play on Columbia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State beat up on George Washington in their first game of the season winning a 87-67 decision as a 16.5 point favorite. HC Hamilton continues to make Florida State a relevant  program in the ACC , and has been recruiting some top tier talent of late ( prep All Americans). These kids plays a suffocating defense, and despite of a departure of 3 players to NBA, are still a blue blood team with plenty of talent.  This team has still got 6 returning players with DD playing minutes under their belts and 5 extremely talented recruits and still the deepest roster in the ACC. Meanwhile Jeff Neubauers Fordham is will be lucky to have a ,500 seaon in the Atlantic 10, but they have  have come a long way since he took over, but  their still in way over their heads here, and unless they find a way to play way above themselves , are going down by 20 or more points in my betting opinion, making this a viable opportunity to back the superior side.

FORDHAM is 0-7 ATS  L/7 in road games in non-conference games.FLORIDA ST is 13-2 ATS  after a game where they attempted 7 or less free throws .

Play on Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tennessee enters this game with 4 straight wins as does their hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers. but according to my own cross reference power rankings and head to head matchup stats the Steelers are superior side.

 Steelers HC Tomlin is 13-3 ATS L/16 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with the average score clicking in at Steelers 27.8 opposition 18 . That number is very close to my own projections which makes the Steelers in my humble opinion a viable wagering option in this spot.

It must also be noted that Thursday night favs are 18-0 SU L/18 and 16-1-1 ATS in a non division tilt with a total of 41 or more attached to it.

Tennessee is 1-6-2 ATS L/9 vs NFC north opposition, and  their QB Marcus Mariota is just 1-7 ATS away L/8 off a win.

 
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season.TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS L/8 after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game losing SU by an average of 12.9 ppg.

NFL Underdogs or pick like Tennessee - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 1 unit reg selection

CHARLESTON CLASSIC - Round 1 - TD Bank Arena - Charleston, SC

Dayton's coach Anthony Grant has coached as an assistant at Florida seen NBA time as an assistant  with Oklahoma City and knows  this game like few others. He takes over a Flyers program with a lot of pedigree and a winning culture and  now has the parts to get his team moving in the right direction. There will be growing pains, but in matchups like this his side should have an edge. Meanwhile, Hofstra despite of having a team that can light the scoreboard up in a hurry, have been defensively deficient in the recent past ranking , 8th in their conference and on adjusted defensive efficiency numbers ranked a ugly 317 in the nation via Kenpom numbers! It will be their D, today that will be their downfall.

Play on Dayton to cover 1 unit reg selection

Portland  is coming off its most complete performance of the season in a 99-82 beat down  of Northwest Division rival Denver on Monday and the team finally looks like its ready for a run. Tonight hey face a improved Orlando side,  that according to my cross reference power rankings the Blazers matchup very well against. This is a Portland team that has proven it can score in bunches, and is now working hard on having an equally effective defense. Veteran forward Ed Davis see light at the end of the tunnel..QUOTE: "If you hold a team under 90, you're going to win," he said. "Even though our record is not what we want it to be, I feel like if we're defending every game, it's going to turn around eventually. END QUOTE: I agree with his assessments and very much like their chances to cover tonight. I know Orlando has played decent ball of late, but continued  success from a ATS perspective has been daunting for this franchise in the past,  as is evident by a  2-11 ATS  L/10 run after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread losing SU by more than 17 ppg.

ORLANDO has covered only 5 of their L/22 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with the average score clicking in at \Opponent 110.5 Orlando 98.4.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Charlotte Hornets expect forward Nic Batum to make his season debut Wednesday night when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers which will help them a lot. Tonight against a Cleveland team that used a lot of energy and emotion to erase a late DD deficit to beat the NY Knicks (104-101) on Monday night an emotional letdown scenario is also a major possibility. Coach Lue said previous to that game  that his super star and leader behind the late flurry LeBron James is out of shape.QUOTE: "He has to get in shape," Lue insisted. "He missed the whole training camp, that's the reason why." END QUOTE: He played 38 min in the above mentioned game and looked exhausted at the end, and that hangover could easily rear its ugly head in this spot.

Cavaliers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS  as a favorite this season.CHARLOTTE is 11-2 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season .CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS  L/41 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Cleveland - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 18-47 ATS L/63 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 1 unit reg selection

After sweeping a five-game home stand and flying to No. 1 on the Central Division charts , the upward trending Detroit Pistons take their winning ways on the road Wednesday night when they go head to head against the Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center. Meanwhile, the Bucks have also played well since Bledsoe arrived from the Suns, and while a lot is being made of his prescience by the media, I can see his effectiveness fading as the Bucks are due for a letdown effort after 3 straight wins. Note: MILWAUKEE is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games .

DETROIT is 21-8 ATS L/29 vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents. Bucks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 1 unit reg selection

Toronto  recorded a franchise-record 45-point second quarter in its 129-113 road win at Houston on Tuesday. The Raptors are a streaky team, and when their on fire , you better not get in their way. Tonight I'm recommending we ride this run away train, and expect similar fireworks vs a deficient New Orleans D, that is ranked 21st in the league allowing 107 ppg.  with an SRS of -0.46. The Raptors have won 13 of their last 16 against the Pelicans, including five straight and get the nod tonight to get us the cover as road dogs.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16 or more  turnovers/game.
TORONTO is 15-3 ATS L/18 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread .

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection

Bulls HC Hoiberg was quoted as saying "I am seeing a little lack of confidence right now, but we've got to find a way to fix that," Hoiberg said, according to the Chicago Tribune."When I look at the overall body of work -- going back to the summer and September when everybody was back and (in) training camp -- we were very competitive. We were playing at a very high level getting into our preseason. Guys were rising up with confidence, making shots."When we don't shoot the ball well right now, we're not bringing the energy we need on the other end of the floor. So it's about building that confidence back up."  END QUOTE: Hoiberg has made some changes for tonight that should ignite his slumping team.  Point guard Kris Dunn will get firs t start of the season, and Denzel Valentine may get the start over Paul Zipser at the three spot. The Thunder are expecting to be without starter without center Steve Adams a more integral part of this team than many might think.

Chicago has won their L/2 meeting here in Oklahoma city!

CHICAGO is 29-12 ATS  L/41 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points like Chicago- revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 35-13 ATS for a 73% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

Nothing comes easy for Atlanta and trying to get their first home win of the season against the visiting Sacramento Kings will also not come easily according to my own projections. Both teams have ugly records with the Kings sporting a 3-10 mark while the Hawks own a ugly 2-12 record. I expect both these teams look at this as a winnable game and both will play hard, which makes getting the points a viable betting option here tonight.

ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS  in home games after a non-conference game .Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.Hawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play on Sacramento to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Wizards and the Heat prepare to play back to back home and way game against each other over the next few of days. Tonight they will play in Miami.The Heat have looked good in their recent road trip out west where  they beat the Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. I myself like very much the way this group plays together and  expect an upward trajectory from them going forward as long as they can stay healthy. I base this projection, on Miami's defense which has  improved significantly  of late, as they rank third in the Eastern Conference in points allowed (103.1 per game) which gives them an edge vs a Wizards side that have the No. 1 offense in the East (111.4 points per game). The Wizards Achilles Heel  is their defense, which ranks only 10th in the conference at 105.9 points per game. In the end I'm betting home court advantage, deeper/  stronger bench,  out does a Washington  bench that has struggled this season.

MIAMI is 19-9 ATS  L/28 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots and 23-10 ATS  L/33 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game or more. Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Wizards are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Washington - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 20-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Eastern Michigan thanks to a usually staunch D,  has been very competitive all season long, and must not be underestimated as dog this Wednesday night despite of a sub par 3-7 record. Meanwhile, Miami O, despite of a 6-4 record has been very inconsistent this season, as recent losses vs downtrodden Kent State and Bowling Green demonstrates.

HC of E. Michigan Creighton is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 yards or less per return.E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 8-1 ATS L/9 as a road underdog.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami Ohio - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 15-43 ATS the L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Eastern Michigan to cover  1 unit reg selection

Montana by Bigsky Conference standards should have an above average team this season, as they enter the current campaign  big and strong and mobile with 9 of the 14 players on the roster standing 6'5 or taller. They own a strong backcourt with Ahamd Rorie ( 17.5 ppg) Micheal Oguine ( 11.9 ppg). They have both a low post threat and fast guardsand must not be underestimated as dogs in this spot. Meanwhile, their opponents Penn State are now a big strapping team, with a 7 footer added in the off season, and despite of their Big 10 power conference rating and decent Kenpom numbers, are according to my own data a little over rated against this very viable opponent. 

Take the points with Montana to cover 1 unit reg selection

Gavitt Tipoff Games series

Marquette finally has a roster that has been completely recruited  by Wojciechowski.  However, despite of this , I'm betting that early on this season, they may have issues, especially against a big strong Big 10  team like Purdue, considering Golden Eagles only have two experienced players with any size. Marquette lost 4 experienced scorers from last season,including 3 1000 point career producers. they must replace 45% of their scoring and 42% of their rebounding corps.  After losing some scoring punch from last season, and experience  I cant see them being as good from 3 point land as they were last year, finishing first in the nation or as good on the boards. With that said, HC Matt Painter and company are the superior team, and must also be considered a key front runner  for both the Big 10 championship and national title, behind an experienced group that returns 6 of 7 of their rotation. This is an experienced group that will not be intimidated at all, something I cannot say about Marquette at this point of the season.

PURDUE is 20-7 ATS  L/27 as a favorite.Wojciechowski is 9-18 ATS  L/27  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record

Play on Purdue to cover 1 unit reg selection

These are two teams trending in the opposite direction. San Antonio (8-5) despite of being short handed has found ways to win while, the Mavericks (2-12) find ways to lose mostly because of third quarter lapses, which surround around key players like Nowitzki  Smith,  and Barnes who have had shooting slumps at inopportune times. It's not like the Mavs have been completely futile, as they have stayed close against upper echelon sides this season, and upset Washington last week. Overall they must  not be underestimated as home  underdogs and I'm backing them in this spot.

 Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

NB Favorites like San Antonio - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5%  or more), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (-5.5 reb/game or less) are 42-87 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matt Mathenys Elon had a very good campaign last season, and are building a nice program. They are returning four double figure scorers from last season, and they ranked 2nd in adjusted defensive efficiency in the CAA , which translated to the best FG defensive efficiency and were disciplined in their avoidance of fouls also finishing first. That top D, should continue thanks  to a experienced returning group.   Now the HC is looking for his offense to step up and focused his off season attention on getting some consistent scoring on board. Instead of a free flowing run and gun offense, he is going to take more intelligent stance, remain speedy, but instead we should see more half court sets, according to what the coaching staff have planed. The Phoenix is a dangerous team, that I'm keeping an eye on and will be a tough out, here tonight as they won't beat themselves, as is evident by their 4th ranked TO % and stingy ability to hold teams down with a lead as their (.732 FT) suggests. Meanwhile, Furman off a rebuilding season last year , came out and was successful after a 7 win campaign the season before. However, this was an emotional team that seemed to dig down deep for wins. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but their emotional leader from last season, Acox has departed and now the chemistry of the team may as well. They will still be a good team in the SoCon, because of good coach ( Richey) and his own hand picked recruiting class, but tonight he will be in deep vs a strong side. With that said, lets take the points with Elon.

Play on Elon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tennessee Tech finished with an 8-8 record last season, and looked good at times vs 20 wins teams. Overall their biggest problem was their offensive adjusted ratings, ranking 272 in the nation (Pomeroys #s). They were atrocious with their conversion numbers, but should be much better this season, thanks to the additions, of Tilroy and Calhoun, which will allow Jugovic to roam more freely on offense  this season. Also add to their ability to get to the FT line, and you have a side that have value on a 21 plus point underdog line. Meanwhile, TCU according to my early season rankings remains a program that just does not look as viable as the linesmkaers are making them out to be. Nothing comes easily for the Horned Frogs as was the case in a opening 83-73 win vs LA Monroe.

Play on Tennessee Tech to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bucks are still getting  acclimated to having newly acquired Eric Bledsoe in the lineup. Coach Jason Kidd moved the veteran into the starting lineup, and saw immediate results, beating San Antonio and the LA Lakers. They will benefit from this top tier scorer against certain teams, but against a physical side like the Grizzlies, I'm betting on a reversal in their fortunes tonight. According to  my own cross reference players/team ratings we have value with the Grizzlies vs this type of team that can both run and gun and be inside/out side shit busters.

Grizzlies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

MILWAUKEE is 6-21 ATS  L/28  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games.MEMPHIS is 19-9 ATS L/28 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points .

NBA team like the Bucks - after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, first half of the season are 27-56 ATS L/5 seasons for a goa against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tenn St is once again getting national recognition and respect and are loaded team that wants another crack at a NCAA birth. Murray St after a very average season last year, wants to start this season off with a bang.The Racers are talented offensively, but their defense remains a question mark, which as their down fall last season, and  I'm betting will not be ready for the offensive explosion that is coming their way.

Midd Tenn State is 154-54 over the last few seasons for a .740 win percentage and now how to get Ws including a win vs Mich state in last years tournament. They are playing a team with a strong home court advantage but will not be intimidated.

 Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MURRAY ST) - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game are just 32-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% conversion rate.

Play on Middle Tenn State to cover  1 unit reg selection

Cleveland has revenge in mind for a loss to the Knicks on their own home court back on Nov 29, by a 114-95 count as 10.5 point favs. Recently James has made some some comments in the media about the Knicks bad choices in the draft , and it looks very much like James has a chip on his shoulder heading into this contest. Needless to say, its never a good thing for opposing sides, when the world best hoops players is in a foul mood. With that said, I expect LeBron and company to come out here like its a play off game ,and give us one of their better performances of the season in this spot on their way to a road cover.

Cavaliers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Cavaliers have covered 4 of their L/5 in NYC.

Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Cleveland  - revenging a loss vs opponent, with a losing record are a long term winning proposition as is evident by a 112-66 ATS mark dating back 21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Old Dominion bases their failures and successes on staunch defensive basketball, and last season,  were ranked 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This seasons version should once again fit this mold, but the offense should also be improved, which will put them at the head of C_USA this season as long as they remain healthy.

 Meanwhile this James Madison hoops program,  goes into this season with a very inexperienced roster and are not returning a single DD scorer from last season, and today tilt must be looked at as difficult for them to say the least. This team, had issues scoring in the past and those problems will be even more exasperated this season, and especially today .

JAMES MADISON is 1-8 ATS  L/9 in non-conference games

Play on the Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mike Hopkins the new HC  for Washington , is coming to the PAC12 , after serving as an assistant to  Boheim in Syracuse. He was widely sought after and a respected assistant and former Orange player.  This  is a hard working dude, and despite rumblings of a lot of new faces in the lineup after the Huskies  after Romars firing, things pretty well stayed the same as he persuaded returning players to come back and play for him including   6'8 Noah Dickerson, who some  thought would leave for LSU. Hopkins worked on schemes during the summer and player development, and Washington looked good out of the gate coming back against a very good Belmont team for a 86-82 win in their opener. This team looks very together, and I like them to come in here vs a lower tier Eastern Washington hoops group and pile the points on for a convincing win!

Home teams as a favorite or pick like Washington- with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak division 1-A conference are 51-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover  1 unit reg selection

Oklahoma City finally notched a win last time out vs the LA Clippers. Prior to that the team did not look cohesive, and lost four straight meetings. Now the lines-makers are making them 12 plus point favorites, vs a Dallas team that despite of a negative W/L SU record have looked much more competitive of late. That was evident when the Mavs picked up their first road win this week of the season against Washington before falling 111-104 to Cleveland on Saturday. With that said, I recommend we take the points. Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Mavericks are 21-9-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings in Oklahoma City. 

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Indiana Pacers are coming off one of the best defensive performances of the season as they try to forge a new image for themselves . The Pacers (6-7) snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Chicago 105-87 Friday night. Tonight against the explosive Rockets I'm betting on more conservative disciplined ball that focuses on slowing down a tired Houston team playing on back to back nights after beating Memphis at home on Saturday evening. It must also be noted that in Thursday nights win vs Cleveland the Rockets looked fatigued towards the end, so pulling out an extra gear last night, than getting on  a plane here , I'm betting finally catches up to them in this spot.

INDIANA is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 Rockets  - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 36-71 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 1 unit reg selection

CFL Playoffs - Western Semifinal

Winnipeg played their most complete game of the season in their last effort before the play offs against Calgary beating the leagues best team by a 23-5 count on the road . Now I'm betting they use the momentum from that game here today and get us the cover vs a Edmonton team that they  beat in both meetings this season home and away.

WINNIPEG is 12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a winning record dating back to last season and is 7-0 ATS  versus good passing teams averaging 300 or more passing yards/game this season. WINNIPEG is 15-4 ATS L/19 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

CFL Home underdogs or pick like Winnipeg - average passing team (245-290 PY/G) against an average passing defense (245-290 PY/G) after 9+ games are 35-11 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Edmonton - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 6-27 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors dating back 21 seasons.

Play on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Cowboys enter this game against the Falcons having won three in a row–all by double-digits and by a combined 55 points. I was not a believer in them for much of this season, but mind is changing quickly. Even without star running back  Elliott( if he does not get another injunction on his suspension) are still a team to be reckoned with, as QB Dak Prescott has proven immune to a sophomore jinx. The Atlanta team the Cowboys are playing are not the same team that made it to last years Super Bowl and the team as whole is struggling, especially on offense which is a surprise. The Falcons have   been held to less than 20 points  four times in their L/8 games, which is not a good omen vs a Dallas D, that not allowed more than 19 points in their L/3 games. Take the points.

Atlanta HC Quinn is 4-16 ATS  L/20 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. HC Garrett is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after outrushing opponent by 50 or more yards in 3 straight games.

Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

NFL Home teams like Atlanta - good rushing team (4.5 YPR or more) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection

Talk about a hard working group, Texas State behind HC Kasper, is a team that bases it successes and failures on their ability to outwork opponents and play disciplined defensive basketball. Last season they were picked by the coaches to finish last , but instead grabbed 22 wins. Thisseason after good recruiting class, their going to be a viable group again. Despite of this  I'm sure their still not looked at with the respect they deserve, but what you have to respect is their tenaciousness and work ethic, and I'm betting that what gets them the cover vs Air Force team with 8 new players and a recent lethargic win/loss ratio under one of my least favorite HCs Pipilovich .

Play on Texas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 The short handed Boston Celtics are in deep trouble  today vs the visiting Toronto Raptors. In the Celtics last game a close win 90-87 vs Charlotte Kyrie Irving took a smash to the  mouth from teammate Aron Baynes, leaving the game with a facial fracture and leaving the Celtics without all three of their new star laden group of Three. I know the Celtics have won 11 straight,, but I'm betting that current run ends today in the TD Center vs  a side that matches up well against them 

The Raptors who were 3-1 overall against the Celtics last season now have an edge. Toronto has covered 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series.

TORONTO is 13-4 ATS  L/17 vs. division opponents and  is 14-2 ATS  L/16 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread.BOSTON is 1-11 ATS  L/12 in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games  outscored during that period by an average of 3.5 ppg.

NBA Home underdogs like the Celtics  - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 16-42 ATS L/58 for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line like the Celtics  - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams ( 102 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 points or less are 11-52 \L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

Play on the Raptors to cover

The San Diego Chargers have been extremely competitive all season long, and were within striking distance against the New England Pats last time out losing by 8 points, which ended a three game win streak. Now off a bye week, I'm betting the Chargers will be extremely recharged and competitive this week, and could even spring the out right upset against a  Dr. Jekyll  and Mr. Hyde Jacksonville Jags side. I know the Jags are off two impressive DD wins but they have not been good bets in the past after those type of results as is obvious  by the following trends. JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS  L/12 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 4-14 ATS   after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.

LA CHARGERS is 11-2 ATS L/13  in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game after 8+ games .

Chargers are 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 meetings in this series and 2-0 SU/ATS in the 2 most recent meetings over the L/3 seasons.Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a win.

Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Chargers - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 108-61 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a long term 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams like the Chargers - off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tennessee has been playing better ball of late winning three straight, but they have not always dealt well with success in the past,  even when playing against lower tier teams  and have been less than successful from a ATS perspective, as the following data/trends will explain.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons and  1-14 ATS L/15 against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season and  0-6 ATS  L/6 vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing  12 or more yards per return . In their history this franchise has continually under achieved for their betting backers going just 14-32 ATS  L/46 times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Tonight I'm betting on a fast improving Bengals side that has quietly won 3 of their L/5 games to not go down without a fight here and get us the all important cover.

TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS  L/29 against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.Titans are 11-36-4 ATS in their last 51 vs. AFC.Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Bengals - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 70-36 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams like Cincinnati- off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection

Lions are off a big win on Monday night football vs GB and on short rest,  could easily be in a letdown spot vs a side I'm sure their not getting up for. I know Cleveland does not inspire bettors, but they are off a bye week and on fresh legs and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this line. It must be noted that Lions are 0-6 ATs L/6 against rested opposition with a less than .500 record, and have FAILED to cover 16 of their L/23 as 8 or more point chalk. Considering 0-5 or worse NFL teams are 18-3-1 ATS L/22 in games following a bye week, I'm betting we have value with this ugly dog. So folks, please just plug your noses, hold your breath and take the points with the Browns this Sunday.

NFL Road teams like the Browns - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 49-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72%conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick like Cleveland  - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-10 ATS L/34 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oklahoma  now 8-1 on the season showed themselves to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the Big 12 last week and maybe the nation as they went into Stillwater and took a 62-52 shootout affair vs Oklahoma State.  While some teams might tank after an emotional slugfest like that I'm betting instead the Sooners will be motivated to get the win here tonight as they look to make up for a shocking loss to a Iowa State side, that they may have under estimated, back on Oct 7. A victory here for Oklahoma vs a 8-1 TCU program ,that also lost to Iowa State 14-7, will also pad their resume, as both  the Sooners and Horned Frogs must still be considered outside contenders for the national championship play off. Another loss for either team and their dream is over, so this is a must win situation for both sides.  Here  in their own building in front of  what will be a frenzied home crowd I feel the Sooners have the edge.

 By the way folks I respect TCU and their vaunted D a great deal, but theirs an old adage, that goes something like this . Defense wins championships , but  offense win games. Whether you agree or feel this statement is irrelevant  or not.... I still say- Advantage Sooners  via the arm of Baker Mayfield and the nations best offensive line.

OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record , with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 16.3 ppg.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. TCU is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in games played on a grass field, losing by an average of 9.4 ppg.

CFB Home favorites like Oklahoma  - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 45-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like the Sooners - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less), after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 52-17 SU L/25 seasons with the average combined margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg,( 33.4 to 24.7)

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover

Houston is off a grueling game with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday night . The Cavs started slowly but  meant business in that last tilt,  and came back with a late surge to make it a game. The  Rockets despite of looking fatigued  dug deep and held off James and company for a 117-114 win. Now in a letdown spot and still a little tired, I'm betting on them coming back down to earth here vs a under rated opponent the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies (7-4) already own a pair of victories over Houston this season,  and have proven they can temper the offensive explosiveness of the Rockets. This Grizz team  can not only play a solid and physical brand of  D, but has now implemented a faster more tenacious offensive pace, and are very dangerous to say the least.

HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS  L/25 in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent.

HOUSTON is 8-18 ATS  L/26  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record and is 18-31 ATS  L/51 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis HC Fizdale is 19-8 ATS L/27 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Loyola Marymount has increased their win total in each of HC Dunlaps last three seasons,  and now its looks like they may be even better this season, after  having added some viable three point shooters which makes them  a dangerous team , especially when considering back door covers on DD lines like this . Yes their is a lack of experience, but the talent in grit is there, and must be respected. Keep an eye on Joe Quintana, and Zafir Williams two California natives who were lights out at their respective high schools. Meanwhile, Ut Arlington has been a fine hoops program the last couple of years, but 3 key guys from last year are gone, and despite of having their dynamic duo of Kevin Hervey and Eric Neal still intact. This team will need some time to jell, and 14 point favs for right now seems like stretching it a little bit , which gives us value with Loyola M to cover.

Play on Loyola Marymount to cover

Missouri has beaten up on three straight teams, two of them came against lower tier opponents UConn and Idaho, and the last time out against a Florida Gators program that looks like they have given up on their season. Previous to that they lost 4 straight against better programs , like Auburn, Georgia, Purdue, and Kentucky. Meanwhile as bad as Tennessee has been they have been competitive for the most part this season, and matchup well vs a defenseless one way Missouri squad that depends on their offense alone to win games. Only Alabama has put more than 29 points on the board in their L/8 vs the Vols ,a D that is  capable of slowing down Missouri in this spot.  I know old Rocky Top might not inspire bettors this season, but my own numbers and projections  suggest this game is settled by a TD or less making this a viable underdog betting situation.

TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS  L/25 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.

Tennessee is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2  meetings in this series.

Home favorites Missouri - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 108-166 ATS  for a 61% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Tennessee Vols to cover 1 unit reg selection

Washington despite of coming off a win vs the LA Lakers last time out has not inspired me to this point in their campaign,  and especially here as DD favorites. The Wizards recently  allowed 130 and 122 points in losses last week and have blown several double-digit leads this season and their body of work is of the sub par type. But here we are being asked to lay 11 or more points to back them. I know Atlanta has been a less than impressive side this season. However, with that said, they have also shown some life of late in a DD upset win vs Cleveland on the road and have covered three straight ATS and  must not be underestimated in their ability to repeat the feat again vs a side that has allowed  an average of more than 114 ppg at home this season.

ATLANTA is 9-0 ATS  L/9  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game. Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.Wizards are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on Atlanta to cover  1 unit reg selection

Kevin Sumlin the HC of Texas A&M is in trouble. His team since their opener against UCLA , when they blew  a huge 34 point  lead, and than lost , has been reeling. It was obvious during the season despite of top tier recruiting, this was a team with little chemistry and focus. That was never more evident than their recent back to back home losses vs Mississippi State and Auburn by DD beat downs. Now the mood is dire to say the least, and these young men  in the Texas A&M football program looked disinterested , which does not bode well for them coming into this non conference game with little meaning attached to it.  I know New Mexico may not inspire many bettors with their recent performances, which includes 11 turnovers in their L/4 games, but they actually matchup well from a ATS perspective vs a side like Texas A&M. I expect the Lobos via a solid ground attack to just be happy eating clock up and here and pounding the rock , which will allow them to stay within the number.  Note:TEXAS A&M is 12-29 ATS  L/41 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more   rushing yards/game.

In the past its not like Sumlin seems to get his team up for lower tier competition and has a history of seeing his team play down to their opponents on a consistent basis ,as this trend will point out. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse is 1-8 ATS   in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.

TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8 in the second half of the season dating back to last season.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS  L/6off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival .NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS  off an upset loss as a home favorite

CFB Home favorites like Texas A&M - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 37-75 ATS for a long term go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection

USC is off two impressive wins vs two over rated Arizona teams in their L/2 trips to gridiron and now the media/pundits and linesmakers are in love with them again. I know their opponents today Colorado have not been that impressive this season with a 5-5 record, but must not be underestimated especially here in their last home game of the season. In the past the Buffs have been a good bet in their last tilt as hosts cashing 10 of their L/11 tickets for their backers . It must also be noted that the Trojans are just 0-10 ATS L/10 on the road as DD chalk against .500 or greater opposition.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like USC- viable team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 20-57 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Auburn (7-2) before this season started was high on my list of sleeper teams to fight for a national championship and nothing has changed my mind. The loss at Clemson earlier this season was a heartbreaker, and the loss vs LSU a shocker because of a lack of focus in the end half. But do not be fooled by those results as  this is an extremely strong Auburn football program at the moment and they had the opportunity to win both those tilts . I know undefeated 9-0 Georgia continues to get a great deal of accolades, and are an extremely competent team with a big win vs top tier Notre Dame , but I will not be surprised if their undefeated streak comes to an abrupt end here this Saturday. Look for a hard fought tilt, that has the feel of an upset written all over it. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here.It’s a great opportunity for Auburn to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation and expect they will play like their lives depend on it this week.  Take the points.

AUBURN is 13-1 ATS  L/14   in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and  is 9-1 ATS  L/10  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Auburn - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 23-6 SU the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate, thus getting points here based on this trend alone makes for a viable wagering opportunity.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg   selection

Iowa is off a resounding 55-24 win vs Ohio State last week, and have been competitive all season long, losing by just 2 points to Penn State at home  and one score ( TD losses) to Northwestern and Michigan State  on the road in hard fought 17-10 defensive affairs In their only  3 losses on the campaign . With that said, I'm betting on  Iowa having  the defensive strength allowing just 18.1 ppg to be competitive against Wisconsin this week at just  under a two TD dog. Note: IOWA is 14-4 ATS  L/18 after scoring 50 points or more last game .Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a huge beat down of Indiana last week, by a 45-17 count, but have been bad bets in the past ATS under those circumstances as they are just  0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after a win by 28 or more points and 1-9 ATS L/10   after a cover as a double digit favorite.

Wisconsin is perfect so far on the season, but I'm betting if their perfect season continues it  will not come without difficulties vs a under rated and under appreciated foe.

IOWA is 25-5 ATS  L/30  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game.

Iowa has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Play on Iowa to cover  1 unit reg selection

After winning last years College Insider tourney thanks to some physical hard fought slow paced hoops, Saint Peters enters this season, being looked at by the pundits as a team , on the rebuild because of losing three key quality seniors. But their replacements are quality players, and I'm betting for now their not really in  a rebuild mode like some might expect. Actually they may even be better this season, because they have a more athletic versatile cast and crew that can score more efficiently.  Meanwhile, I know their competition LaSalle  had a improved season last year , after going 9-22 the year before, and even though they have a couple of big time players on their roster, like red shirt freshman  BJ Johnson 17.1 ppg ,  I'm not sure that s  enough and their depth is a question mark for now. With that said, I'm betting we have value with the underdog side here.

Take the points with St.Peters   unit reg selection

Fairfield is replacing quite a few bodies from last season, but HC Sydney Johnson leading scorer Tyler Nelson (19.5 ppg) one of the best players in the MAAC is returning, and he thinks this maybe his best team ever.  Also the Stags backcourt is firmly in place and  a force to be reckoned with , as Jerome Segura takes the point. This young man  is quality character players and  is probably the best defensive player in this conference. Needless to say this is a hoops program that deserves respect as dogs in this spot. Meanwhile, their  Ivey League opponents Penn had an average reg seasons campaign last season, and great conference tournament, and are getting a ton of accolades. But this program has not had a complete winning season in 5 years, and their still a young team, that has show upward momentum again this season for me to be swayed. With that said, Ill take the points with the stags here.

Play on Fairfield to cover 1 unit reg selection

My own projections make this a huge win for Ole Miss. Actually one of my biggest of the season behind an SEC team that is improving as their campaign has progressed. I'm estimating that Ole Miss wins this game by 24 plus points on a value line. LA Lafayette D , has allowed 37.4 ppg on the season against average opponents for the most part , while Ole Miss has averaged more than 42 ppg in offensive production at home. Here today I will not be surprised by a 50 point out put by the Rebs and subsequent cover vs a side that has averaged about 21 ppg in offense on the road.

Ragin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Road underdogs LA Lafayette - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a road win against a conference rival are 19-32 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Stanford despite of a 6-3 record including last weeks 24-21 loss to Washington State is a team that must be respected as home underdogs. I know their opponents Washington are highly rated, but I'm not that impressed by their resume, despite of the pundits being in love with them and feeling they deserve national play off recognition. With that said, I'm betting on a  revenge minded Stanford crew that lost to Washington last season by a humiliating 44-6 score to be hell bent on pay back and knocking the Huskies off their perch. It must be noted that Washington is only 11-34 SU L/45 on the road vs above .500 foes, while the Cards are 7-0 ATS L/7 as conference home dogs, and 7-1 ATS overall as 4 or more point dogs, and an amazing 13-0 SU L/13 following  a SU favorite loss with HC Shaw at the helm, including 11-0 SU/ATS L/11.Shaw is also 6-0 ATS L/6 after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach and is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

STANFORD is 16-5 ATS L/21  versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  4.25  or less yards/play.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS  L/17 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game which happened against Oregon last time out in a 38-3 win.

CFB Road favorites like Washington - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Stanford to cover  1 unit reg selection

Rick Byrds Belmont is a fine basketball program . The Bruins won their 9th league seasonal championship last season, in the last 12 years and 16 overall conference title.Only Kansas and Gonzaga have more  accolades during that time. But were disappointed in the OVC after being eliminated and not making  the NCAA tourney draw.  This year their loaded again and will have an explosive offense that can challenge in any team in the country. Last year they shot 895 3's and this year could even break that mark. I'm betting Washington has their hands full here.

Play on Belmont to cover 1 unit reg selection

UC Irvine has a lot of holes to fill after some key departures, but last year the same was true, and they won 28 games, and won the Big West title and tourney invite. HC Russell Turner I'm betting will have another winning team, based the process of continuity which has become a key factor in the programs ability to be a contender .  There are two key contributors returning that make Irvine, viable opponents for all comers right out of the box, which will focus on Johnathon Galloway the best defensive players in the conference last season and junior center Brandon Smith , who was an easy second in the conference last season for his defensive skills. 

Play on Cal Irvine to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Antonio, despite playing without  key cogs Leonard and Parker because of  injuries, and a slew of walking wounded,  have won three consecutive games after losing four in a row. Meanwhile, Milwaukee enters into this game in the  Alamo City  after a hard fought controversial 124-119 loss at Cleveland on Tuesday that saw the refs penalize the Bucks twice as much as the Cavs. That set off Trevor Kidd the HC of the Bucks , as he went into a tirade about the refereeing which cost him $15000.00  fine. This Bucks team is reeling, with 4 consecutive losses but I'm betting Kidds verbal explosion,  the addition of newly acquired Eric Bledsoe will motivate this team to be very competitive in this spot. QUOTE: "He's a great player, and he's a great guy, too," Bucks star Antetokounmpo said of Bledsoe. "I'm looking forward to meeting him in San Antonio. He's going to help the team, and he's going to make the game easier for everybody."END QUOTE

 Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.

MILWAUKEE is 14-4 ATS L/18 off 2 or more consecutive road losses and a long term  37-19 ATS L/56 off 3 or more consecutive road losses

NBA team San Antonio  - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 12-33ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Two teams dealing with new faces in their roster after off season changes are currently struggling to find any rhythm. The Clippers have lost 3 straight and 5 of their L/6, while the Thunder have lost 4 straight, as the talented Carmelo Anthony brings his winning ways (PUN) over to Oklahoma City from the Knicks. All joking aside and watching the Thunder on numerous occasions this season, I have come to the conclusion the new additions  George and Anthony have caused a regression in the cohesiveness of the team. Whether this is something that will continue in the long run is unclear, but for now this Thunder teams a mess, and tonight against another team desperate for a victory I'm betting we have a situation that favors the underdog getting points.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-33 ATS  L/51  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game.Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 1 unit reg selection

After back to back 20 win seasons LA Monroe could only squeak out 9 wins last season, but they were very competitive and suffered a lot of close losses. This season they should be much better, despite of having to replace star guard Cappola. But the new promise of bigger and better things come up front behind 6'6 Travis Munnings ( 13.2 ppg) and senior swingman Travis McDaniel. Last year they outrebounded most opponents despite of being bigger, which shows this teams never say die mindset, which gives credence to me seeing them cover the number here vs TCU  with a brand new coach ( Jamie Dixon)  and some new faces .

Play on LA Monroe to cover 1 unit reg selection

My early season CBB projections and wagering recommendations are based on a very old system that I have formulated . It dates back almost 14 years, and takes into consideration injuries, line moves,  the systems implemented by each program, past historical trends (short long term) , and head to head cross reference players and coaching matchups. Today according to those above mentioned criteria, Rice is the superior side, and I can see them winning this SU according to my own projections.

Take the points with Rice

Florida Atlantic upset Ohio State last season, and then had the attention of a lot of teams who came prepared to play them. The team suffered a lot of close losses, but still had a decent season. They have some new faces this season, but HC Evans has done a fine job with recruiting, and should have a decent group to work with this season. Also some of the new faces according to Evans make this an even better team. Meanwhile, South Florida has a new coach, Gregory, who has his work cut out for , trying to reverse a program that has just 22 wins in the previous 3 seasons. I won't be surprised if Florida Atlantic pulls off the underdog win vs a side trying to find itself under a new coach.

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wright State is quality side, with HC Scott Nagy on the sidle lines, this guys know s how to win and get the most out of his players. He loses some high scoring guys from last season, but some of the returnees are capable of stepping up, and with a couple of big guards returning with Benzinger (12.8 ppg) and Mitchell ( 11.5) have viable group on board. If they can shore up their D, Wright State will be dangerous especially as dogs.  This is a under rated team, and deserves my respect on this line. Meanwhile, Loyola Chicago is also a strong side, with a deep core as compared to last season, but all the hype about their additions is being over exaggerated via this DD line.

Play on Wright State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Morehead State has a lot of new faces which is not a bad thing considering how bad they were last season. Just four returning players, no seniors and two juniors and a 30 year old coach in Preston Spadlin whos mentor was Kentuckys John Calapari, and you can see those influences in the way he uses his players in multiple roles and positions, which makes his team a versatile group. He spent the offseason focusing on team development and chemistry which now makes this young group formidable as huge dogs, thanks to what I'm betting will be a never say doe attitude. Look for the back court to be a strength behind Hicks and Walker. Meanwhile, Xavier , is showing up this season with a lot of new faces, and some big scorers like Sumner are gone. As usual their a lot of talent here, but it will take time for them to jell, and until than laying this much lumber, vs a hard working side makes for a good bet against situation.

Play on Morehead  St to cover 1 unit reg selection

Dayton's new coach Anthony Grant has an impressive nba and college coaching career, he spent the last two seasons as an assistant with Oklahoma city Thunder and helped Westbrook win a MVP award, he was an assistant with Billy Donovan at Florida, and is a strong recruiter and tactician. Grant inherits a proud program with a A class pedigree, and is under pressure to perform. With that said, you can bet he will have his team ready to make a splash right out of the gate tonight. Meanwhile, Ball State despite of having a lot of Indiana all stars in their lineup, and a deep quality MAC program are I'm betting going to get outworked tonight. against what will be a very motivated opponents.

Play on Dayton to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Oklahoma City Thunder  are still trying to find chemistry and symbiosis  with the group of superstars and  their backups on the  bench . It's a talented group , with a lot of big egos ,  and lately their being trashed by the media ,  and people close to the team who are getting tired of some of their ugly effortless losses as was the case against a Sacramento Kings team they should beat .  That was the Thunders third straight loss and their most humiliating. Big ego stars like this don't take kindly to being embarrassed and I'm betting the Thunder stand tall here in the high altitudes of Denver tonight as redemption will be the name of the game. QUOTE : Westbrook a perennial star with the Thunder said "We will be better because I will be better," Westbrook told reporters after the loss in Sacramento. "I'm not worried. I love nights like this. It does nothing but bring you closer as a unit and as brothers. I'm encouraged by the group of guys we have in that room." END QUOTE:

OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-4 ATS  L/19 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games and is 13-3 ATS    in road games off 2 or more consecutive road losses.

Any team vs the money line like Oklahoma City - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 23-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the THUNDER - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 69-31 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover  1 unit reg selection

No matter how inconsistent the Cavaliers have been to this point in the season, it can't be argued that this is not a talented group, and when LeBron James is on his game and motivated,  this Cavaliers  team can beat any pro hoops team in the world including tonight's top tier competition the Houston Rockets . Dwayne Wade came out previous to their recent win vs Milwaukee and spoke harshly about the effort being exhibited by the starting 5. Now feeling like they could eliminate some of the negative vibes around the team , with a top tier effort here tonight I expect we will see the Cavaliers at their best. I know Houston has won three straight SU/ATS and look to be hitting their stride, but I'm betting Cleveland matches their intensity and breaks up their hosts  momentum.

HOUSTON is 9-22 ATS  L/31  in home games in non-conference games .HOUSTON is 18-30 ATS  L/48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

  NBA team like Houston - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors. HOUSTON is 2-12 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 1 unit reg selection

App State no longer looks like a top tier program. Yes, their still to respected because of pedigree and the recruiting  is still decent, but they have recently lost their last two games as favorites and once against look like they are being over rated as they have been out yarded in 4 of their L/5 games. I know Georgia Southern may not inspire bettors, but under new HC Chad Lundsford, who is 2-0 ATS, they  have gradually played better ball , and considering their top tier  ability to run the ball, always remain a dangerous underdog, especially vs a DD line like this. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8  in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game and 2-12 ATS  L/14 in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.APPALACHIAN ST is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games after the first month of the season .

CFB Home favorites like App State  - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are just 37-75 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern  to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bobcats enter this game with a explosive offense that has put 40 or more points on the board in 3 straight games, and must not be underestimated at home as dogs. I know Toledo is a top tier MAC team, but they are off a grueling hard fought 27-17 win vs Northern Illinois last week and could easily be in a letdown spot here this Wednesday night and go to 1-5 ATS L/6  after taking on NIU.

OHIO U is 7-1 ATS  in games played on turf this season Ohio HC .Solich is 13-4 ATS  L/17 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season and is 5-0 SU/ATS in his L/5 home game as dog and have covered 4 straight as conference home dogs.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-20 ATS L10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tonight I'm betting the  Los Angeles Clippers will  turn around a recent nose dive when they face the San Antonio Spurs for the first time this season on Tuesday night at the AT&T Center.The Clippers have lost 4 of their L/5 after starting their season at 4-0 and   looked asleep at the  proverbial wheel  last time out in a  104-101 home loss to Miami on Sunday. The Clippers had a chance to win late, but missed two ugly FTs towards the end and a go ahead basket after that. Now  dealing with their frustrations, I expect this Clippers group to be ready to get back on the winning track, and more importantly get us the cover against a aging and short handed Spurs side, that has had some struggles early on this season despite of a current 2 game win streak which includes a victory vs a lower tier Suns team in their last effort.

The Clippers matchup well vs San Antonio and  won three of the four meetings with the Spurs last season, and they have taken six of their last nine against San Antonio.

NBA teams vs the money line like the Clippers - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 23-5 SU for a 82% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons. Despite of this being a valid opportunity for a outright upset I prefer and recommend we take the insurance with taking the points being offered.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Cavaliers looked like a team destined for greater things when this season began, winning their first two games including a  116-97 victory vs todays opponent the Bucks  in Milwaukee . Since than James and company have made excuses for their cohesiveness and lazy play, with James saying on a couple of occasions that the team looked winded and tired , which he said was the case in a outright DD fav loss to lowly Atlanta last time out.  Right now the Cavs just don't have that winning fire, and chemistry seems a bit off ,   because of the use of multiple lineups, as the worlds greatest hoops player single handily James trys to carry  this underperforming team on his aging back. Tonight I'm betting after their last embarrassing loss that I expect a complete team effort here from the Cavs  vs a Bucks team that according to my own cross reference power rankings they matchup up well against. QUOTE: "I think guys are embarrassed, and we should be embarrassed of how we're getting beat," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said after his team trailed by as many as 16 points against Atlanta. "Teams that we're playing, having guys out, key guys out and (us) still not being able to win. We all have to continue to keep searching and continue to keep fighting and continue to play hard." END QUOTE Pros don't like to be called out, and I expect they will respond.

I know the Bucks are well rested but they have come out looking rusty in the past after a lengthy lay off and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

James is third in the NBA in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and he is shooting a career-high 60.8 percent from the field.

Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee- after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are just 4-22 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

Play on Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Mavericks 1-10 on the season are on a horrendous run to begin their campaign, and once again look to be at a disadvantage from a SU perspective , but according to my own numbers are viable underdogs getting 10 points here . Last season, Dallas swept the two-game series from their hosts tonight  Washington  and overall the franchise has won 13 of the teams' past 14 meetings  in this series and I'm betting the desperate Mavs will give the Wizards all they can handle again in this spot. Meanwhile, the Wizards biggest issue to this point in the season, is a lazy defense , and with key cog John Wall at less than 100%, if he plays at all ,those issues will  be compounded and once again make them shaky DD favs. Also with almost three days rest, the Mavericks will have fresh enough legs to make the Wizards work for anything they take from them tonight.

Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

NBA Home favorites like Washington - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better), average rebounding team ( plus 3 reb / differential game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 reb/game or less) are 14-49 ATS the L/21 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Suns won the first matchup in this series in New York last Tuesday, recovering from an eight-point deficit with under seven minutes remaining for their first road victory of the season. I do not really think they were the better of both teams in that game and were fortunate to get the victory.

Now the Nets will try to even this series, and get some momentum back after losing four in a row.

Considering how exhausted the Suns are after a whirlwind 5 game road trip that culminated in a loss at San Antonio yesterday, I'm betting they won't be quite ready to answer the bell here tonight. Asked if road fatigue might have had something to do with his teams tired looking effort in the 2nd half last night,  Suns HC Triano said. QUOTE: : "Probably, a little bit. But that's one of the things we have to learn to do. This league doesn't care that it is a long road trip. No excuses. You have to be able to play every night." END QUOTE. Ready or not here come a desperate Nets team that looks at this as a winnable game and on very fresh legs as they have not played since Friday.

BROOKLYN is 27-12 ATS  L/39 in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. Brooklyn has won their L/2 visits to Phoenix.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line like the Suns - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 1-28 L/29 dating back 5 seasons. ( The Suns have lost two straight by 13 and 17 points which qualifies them as a play against team in this spot on a short line)

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Brooklyn - after 3 or more consecutive losses, first half of the season are 115-70 for a 62% long term conversion rate for bettors dating back 21 seasons.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection

The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs head to Texas this weekend to face a Dallas Cowboys team that is 4-3 on the season, and showing a lot of inconsistencies. Tonight against the Chiefs I'm betting the home teams  problems will be amplified as key offensive cog Boyz RB Elliott is expected to miss for the first time this week as he begins his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy. Needless to say the Cowboys offense will be muted and the flip side I'm betting the D will also get slashed, as Dallas has had  big problems  with explosive  offenses so far this season and top tier quarterbacks . The Rams' Jared Goff and the Packers' Aaron Rodgers ripped apart the  Cowboys secondary in back-to-back losses a few weeks back. That's not a good omen for Dallas vs Chiefs man under center Smith, who has passed for 2,181 yards and 16 TDs with no interceptions this season.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DALLAS has been unable to take advantage of leaky Ds, and are   0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 Last few seasons.

The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS covering by 8.59 ppg on the road when the line is within three of pick after a home win in which they were outgained.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Seattle has owned sub par .600 or less opposition at home, going 29-2 SU L/31 only failing to cover in 8 of those tilts , and are 14-1 ATS against these type of foes looking to reap revenge like Washington. It's never easy travelling from east to west, and I'm betting the Redskins are at a disadvantage from a body clock standpoint.  With both teams operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, Seattle 4 straight wins - Washington 1-3 L/4/0-4 ATS, it will be an easy decision to take the home favorite at a TD or less.

WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  L/10  in road games off 2 straight losses against division rivals.SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS  L/17  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The Seahawks are 17-1 ATS and 18-0 SU as a favorite on turf after a game in which they had at least 290 passing yards of passing yards with 17 of the 18 games seeing victories by a TD or more.

Play on the Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection  

The Cavaliers on the back of LeBron James snapped a 4 game losing streak last time out. The superstar notched 57 points in the 130-122 victory against  the small ball Wizards. But now in an emotional letdown state I expect there will a drop off  for James and for  the continued inconsistencies and flow of his team mates to once again rear its ugly head. It's still early, but there looks to be chemistry issues with the Cavaliers. Now because of the Cavaliers explosion last time out and the fact they are facing a team in the midst of a 8 game losing streak, the linesmakers have attached a slightly bloated line to this tilt, giving us value with the downtrodden desperate and nothing to lose underdog.

Note:( This is the biggest underdog line of the season attached  to the Hawks, they only once have lost by more than 11 points and that was to Houston last time out by a 119-104 count. )

The Cavs also have a way of playing down to their competition, and are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Cavaliers are also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Atlanta is a different looking team with new faces, but last year they took three of the four meetings last season, including both games at Cleveland. With that said,   I'm betting the Hawks coaching staff have a good blue print on how to deal with the Cavaliers, and that they stay a lot closer than the lines-makers are estimating.

CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite this season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points like Atlanta - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a a struggling  defensive team ( 102 or more PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are29-7 ATS for a 80% conversion rate for bettors for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Meet the NFL flavor of the year. LA Rams - asking price is laying 3.5 points on the road. Despite of all the giddiness surround the Rams I'm not buying into what the pundits/linesmakers  are offering at this time, and feel like the price is  a little steep. I know the Rams are off a bye and previous to that pitched a 33-0 shutout against Arizona, but it must be noted that a team coming off a shut out of  an opponent and than are coming off a bye  have failed cover 8 of the L/10 times. Meanwhile, the Gmen are also off a bye and  in the past have been extremely capable  playing  with rest winning 6 of 7 times straight up. I know the Giants may not inspire a lot of bettors and could  be in the midst of down season, but they are still in league with strong parity. Remember the old saying folks" Any given Sunday ".

Note: Giants -QB Elie Manning is 5-0 SU/ATS in his career vs NFL West oppostion and the Giants are 7-0 SU L/7 in this series.

LA RAMS is 0-7 ATS  L/7 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better.NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att.

The Giants are 16-0 ATS covering by an average of 7.41 ppg as a dog after a game in which they benefitted from at least 95 penalty yards. The SU record was 11-6 but none of the losses came by more than 3 points.

NFL Road favorites like the Rams  - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 18-45 ATS for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 34 seasons.LA RAMS is 2-11 ATS  L/13 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.

NFL team like the NY Giants  - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP), after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 45-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a long term 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover

The TB Bucs may not inspire bettors , but they are an interesting and under rated under performing group that can move the ball in explosive fashion when in a groove behind QB James Winston and rank second in the NFL in passing yards per game (295.4) to New England (302.1).They averaged 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Bills but then were held out of the end zone in a 17-3 home loss to Carolina last week, the first time they failed to score a touchdown since James Winston's arrival in 2015. However with that said I'm betting this TB group that is 5-2 in the stats battles  this season will bounce back in a big way this Sunday in the Bayou vs what I'm starting to feel maybe a over rated Saints side.

TB is 9-3 ATS L/12 as away dog of 7 points or more.

TAMPA BAY is 21-9 ATS L/30  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games  with games average point margin clicking in at around a FG.

NFL Underdogs or pick like TB - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 96-53 ATS last 34 seasons for a long term automatic 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Bucs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Denver has really disappointed a lot of people this season, but when your using a young QB like Trevor Siemian that is  still trying to learn a system problems are going to rear their ugly head and they have. That's why the Broncos have said, that they will go with Osweiler a QB that has won 13 of his 21 NFL starts in this Sundays tilt vs the Eagles. I know the Eagles have looked like juggernauts, and are 7-1 on the season. But today their going to face a desperate team, with bad intentions and I'm betting if the Eagles can pull of the victory it won't come easily.

Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NFL Road teams like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a losing record on the season are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors thanks to bloated over done lines.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 1 unit reg selection

The question here today in this matchup of two teams supposedly operating a the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum is whether the line attached to this game matches up to some in-depth scrutiny. The guys behind the counter in Vegas and the off shore sports book industry can be quite brilliant and use a combination of scientific stats research and physiological war fare to determine the placing of certain lines, and its not always public or smart money that dictates a line move or opening number. Contrary to main stream belief there is a lot more to this game than just wanting an even amount of bets on both sides of the wager, like some pundits spout off about. With that in mind I consider Dallas to be a solid wagering option here getting points despite of what things look like on paper and in the standings. Minnesota despite of being upgraded in the off season and currently playing above .500 ball early on this season, are being over rated in my opinion because of their deficient defense ( 113.1 ppg and 114.3 ppg allowed at home) ranking them 28th out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Wolves also own a negative SRS of -1.66 ranking 21st in the league: ie Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule.The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of a ugly 1-9 record are according to my own numbers closer to -9.5 dogs, here and the added digits according to my own projections based on the Mavs equally ugly -8.60 SRS (27th) and better overall D ranked 20 in the league are indicators for me of a value line. Hey guys , nothing is a sure bet , but every edge we can get against the books is important, and todays underdog recommendation backing Dallas is a viable investment option considering the implications associated with our ability to uncover small imperfections in a line for continued consistent profits over the long run!

MINNESOTA is 3-13 ATS L/16 versus poor shooting teams - making 43% or less of their shots .MINNESOTA is 8-19 ATS L/27 in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins .Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.


NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points like Dallas - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a lower tier defensive team 102 or more PPG) are 27-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some  pretty good teams, even though these said teams are  still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights  maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a  viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible.

UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection