CONNECTICUT is 1-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  home team (CONNECTICUT) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 4-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Umass to cover 

Army is the real deal, behind top tier HC Monken and  even with starting QB Kelvin Hopkins out last week with an injury they took out a pretty good Miami O side 31-30 in OT. Now against another MAC team E.Michigan, I like their chances in what the lines makers expect will be a close game even if Hopkins is out again, as Sophomore Cam Thomas is more than able to guide this over powering West Point  running attack . It must be noted that the  Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd ranked ground attack averaging (318 YPG) and have a big time edge vs the Eagles’  key weakness which is their 111th ranked rush defense (216 YPG) .

ARMY is 6-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB home team (E MICHIGAN) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB favorites (ARMY) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 28-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover 

Since their loss to North Texas this rebuilding Arkansas football program has slowly become more competitive. This group is very closely knit, and the entire state of Arkansas is behind them here this week, in what is a winnable game, especially with QB Ty Storey expected back under centre. The Razorbacks have covered 4 straight for their backers, and once again look like a solid proposition here on their own field to cash a ticket for their supporters vs a Vanderbilt team that is last in the nation in red zone conversion rate. Vanderbilt is also s ugly 2-16 ATS L/18 in SEC road games.

Mason is 0-7 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of VANDERBILT. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

 Louisville enters this game struggling mightily averaging just  20.4 points per game, while allowing 33.4 per game on defense and allowing opposition offences to roll over them and gain an average 416.1 yards of total per game.  I know Wake Forest is not much better defensively, but they can score more consistently and that will be the difference maker this eek, in a game that the Daemon Deacons have the ability to win straight up. 

LOUISVILLE is 0-6 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are just 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Utes, enter this game on fire as they are on a 3-0  run and scoring 40 or more points in each of those contests. I don't  know where this offensive explosion has come from, but I'm betting after the emotion involved in putting the pedal to the metal in 4 straight games starting with Washington State, which was their only loss, will now see them in a  emotional letdown down spot that could easily mute their output and attack, especially after mounting that massive comeback vs uSC last week. I know Chip Kelleys UCLA may not inspire bettors, but they are getting better, and have won two straight games and have the talent base to make  a game of this. 

UCLA is 14-3 ATS L/17 at home as a 6 point dog or more.  

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86%  go against conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover 

The Kings won last time out and played good defence in  a winning 97-92 effort vs Memphis, but previous to that the Kings allowed their  first four opponents to average 129.5 points  . Meanwhile, the visiting Washington Wizards are playing all out take no prisoners run and gun basketball, and have an edge playing that type of ball vs a team like Sacramento according to my power rankings.  It looks like a laying a little lumber on the road, here in the early part of the season, is worth the roll, considering how wide open a lot of NBA games have been this season. This league like a lot of others is changing towards high scoring entertainment. Key word entertainment, and I must make myself aware of this and think and reaches my handicapping techniques on the fly. Used to be a time when laying lumber with a team with the Wizards would not be a option for me, but now, at least for now,  until the smoke clears, and a steady stream of stats becomes accessible and plausible I'm saying Lay it folks. 

Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 33-1SU and 17-0 L/3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 12.9 ppg. 

NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons  for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

This tilt between Minnesota and Indiana will settle which  one of these teams will get a lower tier Bowl invite. Both these teams enter this game expected to play with back up QBs. But I like PJ Fleck at home, and dislike Indiana's consistent inability to find any kind of groove since starting their season 3-0. They did play Penn State tough last week, losing by just 5 points and actually out gaining the Lions, but it must be noted that INDIANA is 8-38 ATS  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game .

Also the Hoosiers inconsistent attack has even had difficulties vs teams with porous defences . Note:INDIANA is 0-8 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. 

  INDIANA is 2-9 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings overall. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The very physical  Winnipeg Jets will be a little cranky after a  4-2 home loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs at home the other night, and will now be ready to take their frustrations out a rebuilding Red Wings team. The Red Wings  have not enjoyed home ice advantage this season and are 0-2-1 at Little Caesar’s Arena . From a ATS perspective they have also been ugly bets failing to cash 8 of 9 times including 0-3 ATS  as hosts. This is not a good opportunity for this young team to try to break out of their funk, and instead a lesson in NHL hockey analytics  could well be at hand. 

Play on the Winnipeg Jets on the -1.5 puck -line

Mimai Fl despite of their talent just can't seem to get over the hump. Last season they failed down the stretch and now in their last game lost to Virginia 16-13 , behind a duo of QBs that just don't have a lot of flow right now, and its rubbing off on the team as a whole. I don't know if its because of the Canes tough training/practices or what it is , but this team looks pooched for the 2nd straight season. As a matter of fact a disturbing trend seems to be telling a repeat story, as Richt is 2-9 ATS L/11  in October games as the coach of MIAMI. 

Richt is  also 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MIAMI and is 8-21 ATS  after scoring 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992 

Meanwhile,BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-1 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Im betting Boston College has a better chance to win  then the public has decided, as the opening line was BC -1, and is now at 3.5. Im betting the lines makers were right in their opening assessments and if Im wrong, Im still betting the Eagles make a game of this  and get us a cover. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Florida Atlantic enters this game as a wobbly home favorite, vs a LA Tech team that could easily upset them SU here tonight. Florida Atlantics HC Lane Kiffin has been making some questionable decisions this season, that have not paid dividends, and the team as a whole just don't look cohesive especially on defence and have been outscored 90-35 in the fourth quarter this season . Yes, the Owls do have a top tier QB in Chris Robison but he was hobbled last game, and if he plays will be less than 100% this week and on defence are still trying to mask the fact they are playing without their all time leading tackler, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is injured. Florida Atlantic smashed Louisiana Tech last season the road by a , 48-23 count and now big time ugly revenge is on board. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.Holtz is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992.LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Holtz is a perfect 6-0 ATS as road dog in his career vs a sub .500 opponent like FAU. 

CFBroad team vs. the money line (LOUISIANA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (34 PPG or more), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 37-6 L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

The Denver Nuggets are playing top tier basketball to start their season, as is evident by their 4-0 record behind a defence that is allowing just 99.8 ppg. The Nuggets are just one of two teams keeping opponents under the century mark the other is the Celtics. So needless to say they deserve our respect, and the lines makers agree with the obvious assessments. Meanwhile, the Lakers look disorientated and banged up recording a 1-3 record, after getting their first win vs the Suns last time out. The Nuggets have already won at Staples Center this season, recording  a 107-98 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers on Oct. 17. They followed that win up by sweeping a three-game homestand, including a middle game victory against the Golden State Warriors, the defending NBA champions. I know LeBron James is a dangerous component to have to face in enemy territory but in their current form the Nuggets looks capable of doing so in a positive fashion. Im not a big proponent of road chalk, at above 3.5 points , but this line looks beatable and thus Ill recommend we take the matchup edge and lay the short lumber. 

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 38-12 ATS L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBAHome underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 30-95 SU L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate SU with he point differential clicking in at 5.1 ppg. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

These two teams are vying for first place in the Sunbelt eastern division. Appalachian State has  for a long time had a respected football program, and right now their on the fast track for a decent bowl invitation. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern despite of not getting the same accolades is no pushover and just like their opponents only have one loss on the season.  Georgia Southern lost to power house Alabama, and Appalachian State to Penn State in OT. 

What Im betting happens tonight, is that Georgia Southern will use their No. 5 overall  ground game that cranks out 276 RYPG average to hammer away all night on App States defense , while the absence of  the Mountaineers top tier  RB Jason Moore will be felt as they won't be able to respond with the same type of option attack. I don't know if Georgia Southern can come out of this with a win, but they will make a game of it here on their own home turf. Thus making getting points golden opportunity to cash a ticket.Lunsford is a perfect  6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field as the coach of GA SOUTHERN. 

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Both these teams are in 3rd place in their MAC divisions, but Ohio according to my rankings is the much better team, especially here on their own home field where they have averaged 48.3 ppg behind an explosive offense. Meanwhile, Ball State is scoring an average of just 16.7 ppg on the road and just don't have the guns to compete here 9 out of 10 times. With that said,  those look like viable odds for me to sink my teeth into . Also Ball State D is going down hill fast as they have allowed seasons highs in yards allowed in 4 of their L/5 overall, not a good omen coming in against this type of opponent.Neu is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of BALL ST ( Ball State 15.7 Opp 41.7) I know the line looks like a hook attempt here by the lines makers, but their value right uo and into the 13.5 point range according to my projections so I feel confident of laying odd numbered lumber here. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

The Grizzlies  are off a dismal season , garnering  60 losses , but  with the often injured Conely back in the lineup they looked good in their  two-game Western swing pulling off a  a 92-84 upset victory at Utah on Monday night. Despite of the Grizzlies impressive win, Im not going to get to caught up in that early season performance, and instead focus on their overall makeup. Yes, the Grizzlies have some talent, but their are some flaws as well, as was thecae in a ugly DD loss to Indian in their season opener, and Im not ready to accept them as road favs just yet, especially vs a under rated  Sacramento team that deserves respect after taking out Oklahoma City 131-120 in their 3rd game of the season. Look for former Grizzlies castoff  veteran Zach Randolph to be pumped to play his old team today and show them that he still has some gas left in the tank. I like the Kings to cover here and won't be surprised if they grab a SU win.

MEMPHIS is 18-34 ATS  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 31-14 ATS L/45 in home games versus excellent foul drawing teams - attempting  30 or more  free throws/game.

NBA  team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 15+ losses in last 20 games are 9-33 L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors with a a point differential clicking at 7 ppg. 

NBA Favorites (MEMPHIS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento  to cover 

Tonight we have two banged up teams with a boatload full of injuries. From a matchup perspective from who is expected to play tonight, I like the Knicks group to be able to cover the number behind  leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. (27.0), and  very under rated Knicks center Enes Kanter  who is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 12.3 rebounds), and speedy point guard Trey Burke who leads the Knicks  in assists (5.3) and ranks third in scoring (13.3). NYK have covered 3 of their L/4 meetings in Miami and get the nod again in this spot. 

NBA ome favorites (MIAMI) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 30-60 ATS L/22 seasons.

NBA  team vs the money line (MIAMI) - terrible shooting team (41.5% or less ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good pressure defensive team (16.5 TO's or more ) are 35-85 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors with he average point differential clicking in at 5.8 ppg. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Atlanta  and their high-scoring rookie Trae Young  prepare to play their first home game of the season at State Farm Arena when the Atlanta Hawks host the Dallas Mavericks this Wednesday. The Mavericks (2-1) have won two straight games, with rookie Luka Doncic averaging 18.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists, but things won't come so easily here on the road vs a Hawks team that owns a  4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings against the Mavericks. I know both sides have different cogs in their line now, but my early season power rankings suggest the Hawks must not be underestimated on their own home floor. Both have taken part in some high scoring affairs as has been common place earlier this season, but from a stats chart I keep on possession time/pace and shot percentage performance I like the Hawks in this spot. 

Dallas : PTS/G: 118.3 (9th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.0 (25th of 30)

SRS: -13.63 (28th of 30) Pace: 100.2 (20th of 30)

Off Rtg: 118.1 (4th of 30) Def Rtg: 121.8 (28th of 30)

Atlanta : PTS/G: 119.0 (6th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.7 (26th of 30)

SRS: -10.14 (26th of 30) Pace: 108.4 (1st of 30)

Off Rtg: 109.8 (16th of 30) Def Rtg: 113.1 (20th of 30)

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and is 8-19 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Favorites (DALLAS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion are for bettors.

NBAteam vs the money line (DALLAS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 12+ losses in last 15 games are 3-24 L/22 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The Pelicans are looking explosive out of the gate to start their season, and are off back to back  DD blowout wins. They have also been money makers for their backers since late last season cashing 14 of their L/16 games overall and have been good bets at home cashing 11 of their L/14 ( NO 115  Opp  107.1)  Needless to say this an explosive team that must be respected.  Meanwhile, the Clippers 2-1 after starting their season with three straight home games now go on the road and I'm betting won't find the bayou atmosphere so welcoming. I admit the Clippers have looked cohesive despite of going through a retooling process , and can't be discounted as viable opponent, but Im betting they will be over matched here vs a Pelicans team that plays a break neck pace. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 17-86 L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% SU with the average point differential clicking in at 9.1 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The 1-5  New York Giants enter this Monday night game reeling  have lost three games in a row, giving up more than 30 points in all three and offer up an opportunity for the Falcons to notch their second win in a row . During the Gmens  three-game losing streak, Giants quarterback Eli Manning has as many interceptions as touchdown passes, recording three of each. He has been sacked 20 times this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta QB Ryan is picking up the pace of late, as is evident by  his 354 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Tampa Bay, which has increased his total to 12 touchdown passes with no picks over the past four games. He must be licking his chops anticipation of facing a team that has only 7 sacks on the season ranking last in the league. Look for Ryan and star Wide Receiver Julio Jones to hookup for mucho yards and TDs this week on their way to a what Im betting will be a convincing win and  cover . 

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

The Giants are 0-9 /SU ATS failing to cover by an average of more than 10 ppg as a non-divisional dog on Monday night.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more against opponent off a home win are 5-51 SU L/35 seasons with a average point differential of 9.9 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover 

These 2-0 teams will go head to head tonight in the mile high city, with Denver Im betting having an edge on the line and could easily pullout the SU upset. Golden State has already played hard fought games vs Oklahoma State and Utah, and could have problems up here in the thin air of the Rockies as this game progresses after those two previous physical battles. I know  Denver played last night, but their a very well conditioned team, and won't have any problems keeping up here .

GOLDEN STATE is 29-42 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

The Nuggets beat the two-time champs twice last year, and  have beaten Golden State five times in the Steve Kerr era. Several Warriors have a history of struggling at Denver, including Durant, who has made just 36 of 106 (34.0 percent) 3-pointers in 19 career games at Denver, and Klay Thompson, who has never score more than 21 points in any of his 11 visits to the Pepsi Center.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 34-5 L/5 seasons for a 87% SU conversion rate making this viable trend when looking at an ATS edge. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

 This is a long time rivalry that has seem the 49ers cash 5 straight times. I know the Rams are the better overall team, but Im expecting this to be a lot closer than the lines makers estimate according to my own head to head power ranking stats. It must be noted that perfect 6-0 NFL chalk like the LA Rams  are 1-7 ATS in Game Seven of the season over the last nine campaigns.

The Rams are 0-8 ATS  off a game as a favorite in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average which happened last week.

LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game .

The Rams are 0-6 ATS  on the road facing an opponent that is off two con-secutive losses like SF. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

New Orleans explosive offence will Im betting not be so explosive this week against a staunch Baltimore D off a shutout last time out vs the Tennessee Titans by a 21-0 count. In fact the Ravens D has  allowed a total of 40 points in their L/4 games (10 ppg). Ravens are 5-1 SU/ATS L/5 meetings.

NEW ORLEANS is 7-20 ATS L/27 against AFC North division opponents.NEW ORLEANS is 4-15 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. HC Payton Payton is 3-12 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games and is 2-9 ATS  in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 24-1 SU with the average point differential of 9.4 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

The much improved Chicago Bears go against a New England Pats team that could find themselves in an emotional letdown spot after a behemoth back forth battle  with the KC Chiefs last Sunday night that saw them win on a late FG 43-40.

I know Tom Brady and company are explosive offensively but the Bears have held opponents to 19.2 ppg this season and must be respected as home dogs in their current form. I know the Bears last time out,  but it must be noted that Chicago is  11-2 ATS at home against AFC East opposition  coming off a victory, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss. 

Today Im betting the difference maker will come via the Bears ground attack that averaged 4.4 ypc vs a shaky Pats D, that is allowing 4.5 ypc. 

CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% for conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

The Panthers are off a dismal game last time out vs the Redskins, but they have shown a lot of inconsistencies over the last couple of seasons despite of being a talented group, and now Im betting they rebound. It must be noted Carolina is a perfect  10-0 ATS since Ron Rivera became their head coach in 2011 as a dog off a SU and ATS loss as a visitor, covering by an average of 16  ppg and 21-3 ATS overall off a road loss. Also in that last game, they got away from their strength which is the run game.  But the Panthers have proven  resilient after those types of off efforts going a bankroll expanding 15-0 ATS on a natural surface off away loss when  their ground attack gained less  than 185 yards and they are averaging more than 4.35 yards per rush season-to-date. From. A league wide data base NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 36-12 ATS in their followup rebound since 1983.

Meanwhile, the Eagles despite of winning and playing better of late, are a team that has shown a propensity to fail against teams like Carolina who are struggling defensively at least from a ATS perspective, as they 0-8 ATS  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The Dolphins, who are 4-2 and are tied with the New England Patriots for the top spot in the AFC East, will be hosting a Lions defense that has given up an average of 27.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Which in my humble betting opinion does not make the Lions very reliable road favs in this spot according to statistical algorithms. The key Defensive lapses have come against opposition ground attacks, as the Lions rank 30th against the run, giving up 145.8 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. This Im betting favours Fins running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake who are proving them selves viable cogs in thisDolphin offensive scheme. I know super millionaire QB Matt Stafford is a t the helm of a offence that scores bunches, but Miami is efficient  in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs and could easily stop the Lions on key situations as they game progresses and making them a strong choice getting points as home dogs.

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 9-26 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

.Note:The Dolphins are 11-0 ATS SU on a natural surface when they are off a FG-plus win in which they threw at least one interception and they are facing a team that has thrown the ball on 56%-plus of their plays season-to-date.

Play on Miami Dolphins to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

Hate to be completely simplistic with my approach to this game, but what we have here is a team in the Chargers currently hitting on all cylinders and off three straight wins and other team the Titans on a two game losing streak, behind a offence that was shutout last week, and that has put 9, 12 points on the board in 2 of their previous three games. The Titans QB Mariota who had shown so much promise in the past has slowly begun to fizzle behind HC  Vrabels conservative  methodical system, and looks at times disinterested and just going through the motions. Thats not a good mind set to be in when going against an explosive up trending team like the Chargers. 

LA CHARGERS is 29-4 ATS against AFC South division opponents since 1992.TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 15-35 ATS L/50 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game

Tennessee is 0-15 ATS L/15  vs a side like the Chargers that has won each of their last two games by at least six points and covered them both. San Diego is 16-0 ATS L/16  on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent like the Titans that has averaged more than one turnover per game and less than 70% completions and had suffered a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games.

Play on San Diego Chargers to cover 

UCLA finally got a win last week, after starting their season at 0-5. They beat what looked to be a sleepy California Bears team who was overlooking them by a a 37-7 count. Now they are magically being made more than TD favorite at home , in part because the hobbling and limping Khalil Tate is out with an ankle injury .  Which in my opinion contrary to mainstream thought is actually a good thing. Better to have a 100% healthy 2nd string QB ( Rodriguez) than a banged up pivot who depends on his mobility to to look as good as he does.Rodriguez, the son of former Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez, completed 20 of 38 passes for 226 yards coming off the bench vs Utah last week and a completed touchdown and should be even more fluent this week.

It must be noted that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons so they are from viable chalk bets . UCLA is also just   2-10 ATS  in games when coming off a victory over the last three years and are also a ugly  0-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the last four seasons. UCLA is 3-13 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992. These are some nasty numbers, and Im still not sold on Chip Kelleys Bruins quite yet, and feel its to soon to be laying TD or more chalk in a conference game vs a team that matches up well against them according to my power rankings. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

Tonight Dallas has their home opener against a very good Minnesota team, but Im betting they will be up to the task off being very competitive and getting us the cover even though their without Harrison Barnes. I'm also not reading to much into their loss vs the Suns in their opener as Phoenix is a much better team than people realize at this point in the season. I also expect newly acquired Euro star Doncic to be primed to play a big game in front of Mark Cuban and the Mavs fans tonight . This top tier player is acclimating much faster to the NBAs physical game than I anticipated and  is really impressive and can easily control a games tempo. Look for his teammates and fans to feed off his energy tonight and make this an electric environment. 

 DALLAS is 14-4 ATS in home games against Northwest division opponents.DALLAS is 29-15 ATS  after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.Carlisle is 30-12 ATS  off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS. 

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

The line has moved off the opener of -2.5 and and rightly so and Im betting we have value here backing the new small ball Detroit Pistons right up to -4.  The Pistons won their first game of the season against the Brooklyn Nets 103-100 behind Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond despite of being a little short handed with two starters out. The Pistons found a way to hold the fort and  win was a positive sign in the midst of plenty of teachable moments, Casey told reporters Thursday. Pistons now coached by Dwane Casey are a fast team,  that works the inside well and hold key matchup problems for teams like the Chicago Bulls that are off a 127-108 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Note NBA Road favorites  (DETROIT) - off a close home win by 3 points or less are 48-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 8.5 ppg. 

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

Oregon is coming off a huge 30-27 OT win vs Washington last week, and now in a away game will be in a huge emotional letdown situation against a Washington State team that has the guns to take them out here at home. Note: Washington State is explosive passing team with its "Air Raid" offense under Leach. East Carolina graduate transfer Gardner Minshew is the top passer in the Pac-12 (averaging 403.7 yards a game) while completing 68.7 percent of his passes (215 of 313) with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Strap on you jock straps fellas, this ride is going to get bumpy for the incoming Ducks. Cougars have won 10 straight at home dating back to last season, and have covered 8 straight in this series, and Im betting both streaks stay intact after the final whistle blows here tonight. 

Play on the Washington State Cougars 

 Old Dominion has done one thing right this season, and that is beat Virginia Tech. Other than that this team is completely inept and look like they are still dealing with the massive emotional hangover of that bizarre win. They put everything they had into that game, and now theirs nothing left in the tank. The Monarchs have lost two straight by DDs and took it on the chin last week,   42-20 vs Marshall, and gave up a pile of yards which does not set up well for them coming into this game as they are  0-10 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1999. 

OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Huge letdown situation for the LSU tigers after upsetting the Georgia Bulldogs last week , which puts them at a disadvantage vs a Mississippi State that can light the board in a hurry. Add to that the Tigers have Sabans Alabama on board for next week, and you can see taking points here with a under appreciated opponent is a viable wagering opportunity. 

Miss State is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings, and have a good read on HC Oregeron as is evident by last seasons 37-7 beatdown of this same LSU program.

LSU is 3-13 ATS in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

CFB road team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - off a home win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miss State to cover 

The Raptors come into this game in a letdown situation as they visit the Washington Wizards Saturday night after a  113-101 win over the preseason Eastern Conference favorite Boston Celtics. They will now be at a disadvantage vs a Washington side off a loss in their home opener to Miami 113-112 and that   will now be out looking for redemption against what could be an Eastern Conference front runner. Actually Torontos top tier projections centre on whether the often injured Kawhi Leonard remains healthy enough to stay in the lineup . He has missed an average of 30% of his games during his career and already missed to play off runs.

Tonight Im betting for Wizards star Bradely Beal to lead the way for the Wizards . He has thrived vs the Raptorsin the recent past and had 38 points in their first meeting of the season last year and two more 30-plus nights in the playoffs.Saturday's game is a rematch of last season's Eastern Conference first-round playoff series in which the Raptors eliminated the Wizards in six games.REVENGE on board for the  home team.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 21-4 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

These two teams look pretty evenly matched in their current losing forms, as both display ugly 3-12 SU records. Montreal does however matchup well vs the Argos and won their L/ meeting. Despite of  Toronto having revenge on board, the Als from a statistical standpoint deserves my backing a FG or more. 

TORONTO is 1-8 ATS  versus mistake prone teams - 88+ penalty yards per game - after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MONTREAL) - with a poor passing D - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game are 26-7 ATS L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.TORONTO is 2-10 ATS  versus poor passing defenses - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. 

CFL team vs SU (TORONTO) - with a struggling defense - allowing 7.5 or more yards/play, after allowing 7.6 or more yards/play in their previous game 3-27 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on the Montreal Als to cover 

These two teams Im betting will embark on a all out war this week that favours the dog getting a boatload full of points .Don't get me wrong Clemson is a great team and Death Valley is a nasty place to visit if your an opposing football program, but NC State is highly under rated and more than capable of actually pulling off the upset this week. The last two meetings in this series were won by the Tigers by 7 point counts and another one score game is a high probability event that makes this a  viable wager in this spot. Both these teams are well rested off a bye week, but in the recent past that has not been a recipe for success from a spread perspective for the Tigers as they have failed to cover 4 straight times. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 19-2 ATS off a bye,  vs conference foes and have covered 15 of 16 when made underdogs.

NC State has covered 9 straight ATS as 2 TD or more dogs. NC  State is also 12-2 ATS as DD underdogs coming off a SU win.  

NC STATE is 6-0 ATS  after a 2 game home stand over the last 3 seasons.

CLEMSON has failed to cover 19 of their L/27  after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins and 13-29 ATS L/42 after 3 more straight conference wins.

CFBroad team (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on NC State to cover 

 There is no doubt that Umass can put points on the board in bunches as is evident by 49, 42, 42, explosions in their L/3 games. They won one of those games, and lost the other two vs teams that are also explosive offensively. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina despite improvement over last season, just don't have the guns to hang with this type of offence, and also own a inconsistent  defence that has allowed 42 points in back to back games.Look for Umass to bomb away on Coastal Carolina and for the visitors to punch back, but Im betting the bigger and more frequent shots will come from UMass. Knockout in the 4th quarter. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (MASSACHUSETTS) - average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-1 L/10 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors SU with the average margin of victory differential coming by 17.9 ppg.

UMass to cover 

Ohio has played a tough schedule, with hard luck losses to two very good football teams Cincinnati U and N.Illinois last week. On both occasions they blew late leads, and if it were not for those heart breaking defeats they would be 5-1 on the season, with Virginia being the only team to surprisingly manhandle them 45-31. HC Solich is a solid coach and he now has the opportunity to get his troops back in a winning frame of mind .With that said, look for this explosive Bobcats group on their own home field to now take out their frustrations on a very over matched in disarray Bowling Green team that fired their coach this week.  

Note: Bowling Green is allowing  47.76 ppg overall this season and a even uglier 57.7 ppg on the road. 

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 seasons. BG 21.9  Opponent 51.7 for a +28.8 point differential. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

Virginia knocked off Miami U in a big upset last week, and after that the Cavs and their fans rushed the field like they had won a national championship. Thats what I call irrational exuberance at its best, and now the hungover Cavs will have problems facing a team that I have rated above them my power rankings . You have to remember this is the same Virginia team that crapped the bed earlier this season vs  struggling Indiana  football program and lost 20-16, so its not like their national championship contenders or anything. Meanwhile,Duke rebounded from its first loss of the season against Virginia Tech by surgically  dismantling the Yellow Jackets  option offense in a impressive looking 28-14 conference road victory. Im becoming a believer in the Duke football program that has beaten Army, Northwestern, Baylor this season and Im saying they have to be respected today on a TD or less line at home.

VIRGINIA has failed to cover 18 of their L/24 after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.

CFBA road team (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-27 ATS. for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more against opponent off a road win are 2-44 SU with the average score differential clicking in at 21.4 ppg. 

Play on Duke to cover 

Before I get started Id like to say I acknowledge that Michigan has the better all round team in todays confrontation with Michigan State. But being a superior side does not guarantee a cover or even a win on any given Saturday, especially in a game between to long time rivals. Michigan State has also shown themselves golden  under D Antonio  tenure  going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU vs Harbaugh and the Wolverines and overall have cashed 10 straight in this series including 8 victories SU. Today I expect the Spartans No.1 ranked rush D, to be the difference maker as Wolverines QB Patterson who will be made one dimensional, which could easily see him make mistakes vs a front 7 that can definitely turn up the heat when motivated. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Whether Russel Westbrook plays or not tonight, for the Thunder, I still like the home team the LA Clippers to come out on top. Westbrook after under going what has been described a minor knee procedure  is probably less than 100% despite of being rushed on the court for his first game. I know the media is buzzing about what a great D, the Thunder will have this season, but the Clippers are also deep with defensive talent despite of this being a transition season for them. Both teams lost their openers but the Thunder worked harder than the Clippers in their loss to the Warriors in game 1  and could feel a bit of an emotional letdown, vs a energized Clippers side that has a chance to redeem itself in this their 2nd home game of the season. Clippers HC Rivers is 11-2 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% or less)

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-27 ATS  after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the LA Clippers to win 

Edmonton after three straight losses came out in their last game and laid a beatdown on visiting Ottawa by a 34-16 count, but Im betting things won't come so easily this week at BC. The Lions have won 5 of their L/6 games and are 6-1 at home this season and have played consistent ball all season long while the Eskimos have not. 

EDMONTON is 13-34 ATS L/47 in road games after gaining 8.1 or more yards/play in their previous game.Maas is 3-12 ATS after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of EDMONTON.

CFL team (EDMONTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 6-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the BC Lions to cover 

Boise is not as powerful as I expected them to be this season, and have been slightly disappointing to some degree, especially at home last time out losing to a banged up San Diego State squad 19-13. Laying this much lumber at home does not suit their current form and from a recent trends set does not favour them to cover in this spot, as the blue carpet hosts are just 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 lined home games and an equally dismal 4-18 ATS  in conference games as 21 or more point chalk. Meanwhile, Colorado State is picking up the pace of late after a slow start and have won and covered two straight as well winning the stats battle. The Rams have covered 6 of their L/7 on the road as 14 or more points and will be ready to avenge a 59-52 shootout loss at home last year the Blue Broncos.

COLORADO ST is 24-9 ATS L/33 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

Play on the Colorado State Rams to cover 

The Milwaukee Bucks by new HC  Mike Budenholzer  barley got by the Charlotte Hornets by one point in their first game of the season. But their was some troubling stat lines that tell me not all is well in Milwaukee despite of a talented roster. In that above mentioned win the Bucks  committed 21 turnovers and  blew a  20-point lead . Add to that they allowed the Hornets to shoot 42.1 percent from beyond the arc (44.6 percent overall). That is not a recipe for success against a very under rated Indiana Pacers side that is deep and can light the word up in a hurry, while also playing top tier defence.Indiana opened its season with a easily handling Memphis 111-83 on Wednesday night and look like viable underdogs in this spot. Indiana has won the L/3 meetings in this series, and gets the nod again in this spot play. 

Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.Pacers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA CentralBucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to coverBucks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games.Bucks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 

Two rebuilding teams continue their  rivalry  tonight as the  New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets do battle in the big apple. Both look evenly matched and I consider this type of game a neutral court event, thus getting points with the Knicks looks like a viable wagering opportunity despite of them playing without key player Kristaps Porzingis. With Tim Hardaway Jr., getting more touches because of Porzingis absence Im betting the Knicks will be a handful for the Nets and have an edge. Add to that the Nets are pretty banged up with  and maybe without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (left adductor), DeMarre Carroll (right ankle surgery), Allen Crabbe (left ankle sprain) and Shabazz Napier (strained right hamstring) who all missed the first game.The Knicks swept the season series by an average of 14.8 points, getting all four wins before Porzingis was lost, but believe they still offer up a lot of bad matchups even with him gone. 

NBA Favorites (BROOKLYN) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the New York Knicks to cover 

The Magic opened up with a 104-101 victory over the Miami Heat, getting the W despite not making a field goal for the final 4 1/2 minutes and after trailing by 14 in the first quarter , telling us  yes small miracles sometimes happen. Im betting in their followup tilt they will not be so fortunate vs a decent looking Hornets squad that despite of a loss in their first game , almost came back from 20 point deficit thanks to some fast paced small ball. According to my team vs team power rankings and matchups the Magic do matchup well vs this type of opposition. Charlotte has won 14 of the last 18 meetings and 4 straight and 10 of its last 12 trips to Orlando and get the nod again in this spot to cover the number. 

 ORLANDO is 9-22 ATS after a division game over the last 3 seasons.

A long term NBA trend shows Home underdogs (ORLANDO) - off a close home win by 3 points or less are a bad bet as these teams are just 123-191 ATS L/21 seasons for go against 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The Miami Heat enter this tilt vs the their hosts the Washington Wizards on tired legs after playing last night and garnering a hard fought 104-101 loss vs long time instate rivals the Orlando Magic. Im betting things won't get much better , as the Heat are banged up and were shorthanded last night  without James Johnson (sports hernia), Dion Waiters (left ankle), Wayne Ellington (left ankle), and Justise Winslow (right hamstring), and they are expected to miss Thursday's game as well. Look for Washington to be primed to get things rolling in the right direction on opening night behind four key returning starters John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Markieff Morris and possibly newly acquired with the hobbled Dwight Howard, who averaged 16.6 points and 12.5 rebounds last season with Charlotte.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 3-25 ATS in their follow up game since 1996 for a longterm go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road underdogs (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

I don't have a lot of perceived early season expectations for both of these teams and both  are on my wait  and see list, with a dozen other sides. One thing Im sure of though is that. Suns first round pick 7'1 center Deandre Ayton will be a key contributor to the Suns successes or failures going forward.  However, from a head to head matchup comparison, I like the Suns chances of victory as shot home chalk, as Dallas will be without their  injured star big man Nowitzki and also small forward Harrison Barnes.  Overall the Mavs don't inspire me considering their current  lineup and expect Euro star acquisition Doncic to take time to acclimated the physical NBA style of play.  From a matchup perspective based on my  my early season power rankings charts, and the fact that key Suns guard  previously injured Devon Booker is expected to play tonight the Suns look like viable choices here at home. Add to that   recent  meetings  that have proven my head to head synopsis correct show the Suns winning all  3 meetings last season SU, including the L/5 meetings overall.DALLAS is 2-11 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

Indiana towards the end of late season, really started to jell as a team, and went into the play offs with a full head of steam, giving the Cleveland Cavaliers all they could handle before folding. Im betting that post season experience will help this team ascend to even higher heights this season. Add to that last seasons entire starting lineup returns intact including the explosive  Oladipo  and a deep bench with the likes of Sabonis , Joseph , McDermott and Quinn as well as first round picks Leaf and Aaron Holiday and you have a dangerous deep team to back. 

Memphis also looks to be much better this season with Conely healthy again after playing only 12 games last season. But unfortunately for the Grizzlies they are going up against what my early season lean suggests is the superior side on this home chalk line. 

INDIANA is 19-8 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Indiana 110.1 Opposition 101.4

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - in non-conference games, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers are 37-5 SU L/5 seasons for 88% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 10.5 ppg. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Jets despite of notching a win last week, vs a sleepy looking Denver team were not particularly efficient and still had two turnovers, which is not a good omen for them this week vs top tier QB  Andrew Luck  and Colts. It must be noted that NFL teams that had fewer than six wins the previous season are 0-18 ATS at home when they are off a home win in which they committed two-plus turnovers and have lost 15 of the 18 games SU. Meanwhile, the Colts are off having their butts kicked in a Thursday night clash last week in prime time, and have shown a propensity to bounce back well with Luck at the helm of the offence, as is evident by  Indys record when coming off a SUATS loss, recording a  22-4 SU  mark along with a bankroll expanding  21-5 ATS  record in his NFL career – including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against below .500 opposition and a perfect  7-0 ATS when coming off a non-division double- digit loss as was the case vs the Indianapolis and  is also 12-1 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a loss by more than a TD in which their opponent had more third down conversions than punts. With that said, expect Luck and company to cash this week vs a Jets side that is 0-4 ATS L/4 off a SU/ATS win. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 19-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Atlanta enters this game banged up and displaying a atrocious D that is allowing just under 400  yards a game. Should they really be a FG favorite even here at home in their current state, Im saying maybe based on perceptions and respect from the recent past successes. However, based on tangible evidence and their current form, I definitely say their fade material vs a Tampa Bay team that must not be underestimated in their ability to upset them. I know TB  is coming off two straight losses, including an embarrassing 48-10 loss at Chicago Sept. 30. But pros don't like to be embarrassed and with a week of rest will be hell bent on getting redemption. TB has also  shown a propensity to bounce back, on the road after a bye and are 5-1 ATS with rest. 

ATLANTA is 8-20 ATS L/28 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 10-27 SU for a go against SU conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

The Seahawks are showing some signs of life after many began to write them off earlier this season as they have won 2 of their L/3 games and played a top tier LA Rams team tough last week losing a 33-31 battle but covering as 7 point dogs. Meanwhile, Oakland is showing very little  life and have lost 4 of their first 5 games  thanks mostly to a defense that is allowing 29.8 ppg and an offense that has scored more than 20 points once this season. Look for Seattle a team that averages 23.2 ppg to do some damage this week and to get us a cover.

OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.  

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 38-3 L/10 seasons for a SU 93% conversion rate for bettors. with the average victory coming by 9.6 ppg. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Im sure Wyoming does not inspire a lot of betting backers, because of their sub par record and crappy offence. But one thing this team can do is eat up clock and slow their games down to a crawl via a slow progressive run game, and a defence that is highly under rated.  Note: WYOMING is 13-4 ATS L/17  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points . I know Fresno State looked powerful this season with their only loss coming against Minnesota, but it must be noted that Wyoming owns a 8-0 ATS record as road underdogs of 23 or less points  vs opp coming off consecutive victories and are viable investment options in this spot.  With that said, Im betting Fresno State is getting to much respect here for beating a struggling UCLA side and  a defensively deficient Toledo team travelling from east to west , and that Wyoming actually maybe more of headache for them then what the home side might expect. 

CFB team (WYOMING) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 14-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Ole Miss are weak 7 point favs here according to my calculations. Overall this Ole Miss football program have been poor road favs failing to cover 24 of their L/30 in that role. I know they put 70 points up on UL Monroe last week, but their will be a reversion backwards in their output here, and with their defence as atrocious as it is, I expect a Arkansas offence that put 31 point on the board vs Alabama last week do a lot of damage here today in what could easily be a straight up win. t

Arkansas is  10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in this series with Ol Miss of late , and are 6-1 ATS l at home and 6-1 ATS under dogs. the two most recent meetings in this series were decided by 4 and 1 point respectively. 

ARKANSAS is 21-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. ARKANSAS is 25-12 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992

OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 2 seasonsOLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Middle Tennessee State have just won 2 straight as underdogs  vs Marshall and Florida Atlantic and being under rated again, and a good bet to cover and even win outright here today vs a Florida International  side they matchup well against.Meanwhile,  Florida International is being over rated because of big offensive explosions against nasty D, Ark Pine Bluff and Umass and despite of looking offensively cohesive do not matchup well vs a physical  Middle Tenn State side that has shown dominance in this series winning 5 of the L/6 meetings. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

A so called third string QB Purdy,  marched into Stillwater to face a pretty good  Okahoma State  football program last week and helped his team pull off a SU win as DD underdogs. This is just not any 3rd string QB, but one that threw for 7700 yards in his last couple of campaigns playing Texas High school ball and who was pursed by a lot of big name teams. After that big win I doubt very much Iowa State will be a in a letdown situation vs what is now one of favorites to win the Big 12 championship, especially here at home. This place will be rocking this week and so will Iowa States offence.

It must  also be noted that HC Matt Campbell playing as an underdog against opp like the Mountaineers coming off a SUATS victory is  11-1 ATS in conference games including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home.

IOWA ST is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of IOWA ST.

W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Washington (no7) is highly ranked, but Im not a true believer in them because of their lack offence as was evident last week in. lazy 7 point win vs a bad UCLA side. This week here on the road against the Ducks I won't be surprised if they are exposed by a under rated Oregon team that is well rested and off a bye and  will be primed to pull off a upset. Note: Oregon is 6-0 ATS L/6 with rest)

The Ducks are 113-23 SU L/21 seasons at home.

OREGON is 29-9 ATS  after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OREGON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Oregon to cover 

This game features an explosive offensive team Ohio against a staunch physical defensive team with Northern Illinois. HC Solich is 9-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5  or less yards/play as the coach of OHIO U. Both these teams are undefeated in MAC play so expect this to be hard fought and closely contested with getting  points Im betting being golden.

Ohio has covered their L/4 trips to N.Illinois and won 3 of those game SU. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 47-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 

This version of Army is for real and a dangerous opponent as top tier teams like Buffalo U and Oklahoma  and Navy have already learned this season. A lot of old negative numbers showing Army as bad bets as road favs are now out dated as compared to the group HC Monk has assembled here at West Point this season.  I know San Jose State has played decently of late, at least from a competitive stand point, but Im betting their not built to handle Armys triple option attack and that they will get literally run over here today in a big way. San Jose State has given up a whopping 165 ypg on the ground this season. Im not a a long term proponent of constantly laying DD on the road, but some situations warrant such a wager and this is one of them. 

CFB Road favorites (ARMY) - after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 23-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 28 ppg.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (SAN JOSE ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 3-28 SU L/10 seasons with the average point differential coming in at just under 3 TDS/PA a game (20.9).

Play on Army to cover 

 Zips HC Terry Bowden has already seen his under rated team upset Northwestern this season  and then played Iowa State tough in as visitors losing 26-13 but covering as 19.5 point dogs and despite of some down efforts almost always seem on the edge of being better then advertised. I know they lost last week to Miami O in ugly fashion, but in the past they have shown an ability to bounce back  going 6-1 ATS as dogs when coming off a SUATS loss.Bowden is 15-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of AKRON.

Meanwhile, Buffalo  at 5-1 behind future NFL draft pick 6’7” QB Tyree Jackson (ranked 8th in the nation in TD passes) have looked strong this season in MAC play, but has some alarming numbers attached to their  stats tags when it comes to Red Zone Offense efficiency rankings –    Bulls are  ranked second to last which is interesting considering their offensive output. Meanwhile, the Zips are the leaders in red zone efficiency. With that said, from a matchup perspective, the Zips are viable underdogs in this matchup on this DD line. 

AKRON is 6-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.Bowden is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of AKRON.

Play on Akron to cover 

Iowa enters this game as being fairly highly rated in my power rankings within the Big 10 and gets the nod here as short road favorites vs a very inconsistent Indiana side  that is  just 2-10 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile,  IOWA is 19-6 ATS L/25 opportunities as a road favorite of 7 points or less . Iowa has owned this series of late with a record of 6-1 SU, and add to that  are also 7-0 ATS as conference road favorites of 15 or less points. Everything points to Iowa coming out of this with a win and cover. 

Iowa is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 as a road favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards covering by more than 2 TDs a game on average. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are just 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

The Utes played a heck game vs Stanford last week and pulled off the upset as underdogs, but will now be in a huge letdown situation vs a Arizona team with a clutch QB at the helm Khalil Tate. With USC on board for Utah they may not have their heads completely into this game giving us room for a under appreciated Arizona team that has won 3 of their L/4 to get the cover  vs a side that has failed to cover 7 of their L/10 as 7 point chalk or more.

CFB Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are 119-64 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Eagles are experiencing a Super Bowl hangover and are just 2-3 on the season, despite of being competitive in all 5 games. They have also failed to cover 4 straight for their backers, but must be respected here tonight as they will be very primed to perform at an optimal  level after 2 straight losses. Meanwhile, the GMen have played well above their heads, so far , but are still just 1-4 SU and after their heartbreaking 33-31 loss last week in Carolina thanks to a nearly impossible 62 yard walk off FG. Im now betting the Giants will now be in an enormous letdown situation on short rest, which favours a hungry superior side. 

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 35-11 ATS L/35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (25% or less ) are 31-4 SU for a 89% conversion rate over the 10 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.3 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

Appalachian States offence is rolling with their lowest output (35 pts) coming against Penn State . Right now the Mountaineers look to be the class of the Sunbelt and have proven they can hang with teams like the Nittany Lions, and laying less than DDs with them looks like a steal . It's  never easy laying lumber with a road team in any sport and you have to do your due diligence which I have. This group of Mountaineers looks special indeed and as long as they stay motivated  Im betting Arkansas State does not have the needed fire power to cover this number vs a behemoth opponent. Appalachian State is also well rested which is a good omen here for us cashing a ticket, as they are 6-0 ATS after a bye week over the last 3 seasons. App State 39.5 Opponent 12.7

From a College Football wagering perspective we also have value according to current trends as listed below. 

CFB home team (ARKANSAS ST) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian State to cover 

The Senators after a tumultuous off season that saw their super star defence man traded, Erik Karlsson , have surprisingly started their season on a winning note. But Im betting this surge will come to an abrupt end today as Im backing the Bruins inconsistent goal keeper Rask to come up big here, after a slow start to his season that saw him allow 5 goals before being pulled in a 7-0 opening night loss to the Washington Capitals . Look for redemption minded Rask to be at his best this afternoon in the Bruins home opener. He has owned the Sens of late going 3-0-0-0 against last season and owns a 2.17 GAA and .925 save percentage lifetime against them. The Bruins won all 4 games vs Ottawa last season with the two home wins coming by 5-2 and 5-1 counts and another similar outcome is not out of the question, and viable wagering option on a -1.5 puckline.

Bruins are 22-8 in their last 30 home games.

Play on the Boston Bruins to in on the puckline -1.5

The Vikings visit the  City of Brotherly Love primed and pumped up to avenge a embarrassing playoff loss  by a ugly 38-7  deficit in last years play offs.Minnesota is FG pup in this tilt after looking like a viable opponent  after  a  hard fought 38-31 loss on the road in LA last Thursday night. In the past the Vikings have been good bets in this situation, as they are  12-0 ATS L/12  as a dog of less than a TD coming off a road loss. Also. HC Zimmer in non-division games when coming off a loss, is 13-1-1 ATS in his last 15 chances and has cashed in 4 of his l/5 coming off a Thursday nighter. Meanwhile the Eagles are  just  0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite of more than two points and did not look all that good in a loss last week to Tennessee in OT by a 26-23 count.

REVENGE . REVENGE. 

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

San Francisco has been  made more than a 3 point  favorite here because of their perceived superiority vs a 0-4 Arizona  team that is currently on the shit list for public bettors. However, laying points with SF is not a good bet when they are at home as is evident by a  0-11-2 ATS  as a home favorite since the 2012 season. Neither team inspires bettors, but getting points with a Arizona team that is getting better with former UCLA gunslinger Josh Rosen at the helm is a viable wagering opportunity. Plus watching SF blow a 14 point last week, vs the Chargers and eventually losing 29-27 is disheartening , and a bd omen for their chances today to cover, as  the 49'ers are 0-10 ATS playing on a natural surface after a loss in which they scored at least the first fourteen points of the game. It must also be noted that Arizona has lost 2 straight at home but the good news here is that the franchise is  7-1 ATS L/8 as a dog of 3 or more points when coming off consecutive home losses. Meanwhile, the  Niners are just 2-13 ATS at home following consecutive away losses. Im going against. the weak favorite this week and taking the ugly dog to cover. 

Arizona to cover 

The Giants are one of these teams that continue to surprise many when they look down and out. This is not a good Giants team, but QB  Eli Manning is   32-17-3 ATS career mark in games during October – including 16-6-2 ATS away and seems to play his best football at this time of the season. I know expected future star RB Barkley only had 44  yards pastime out, but the NY GIANTS are long term good bet off a bad rushing performance cashing  26 of their L/38  ATS in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards.The Giants' offense has plenty of playmakers to challenge the Panthers' defense.

Veteran quarterback Eli Manning has passed for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns with one interception, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has 31 catches for 331 yards already, and rookie running back Saquon Barkley has rushed for 260 yards on 56 carries and three touchdowns.

Barkley has accumulated the most yards from scrimmage by a rookie so far this season with 453. The No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft is the fifth player in NFL history with 100 or more yards from scrimmage in his first four career games.

NFL home favorites like Carolina  are 0-22 ATS on natural surface off a victory as a home favorite of 13 points or less when they are going against  a team that has averaged less than five rushing first downs per game and more than 3.5 yards per rush season-to-date.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

Last week Buffalo looked horrendous in a 22-0 shutout loss to the Packers. But it must be noted that the Bills are 6-1 SU in games after having being shutout. From a league wide data base NFL teams coming off being blanked  who were in the playoffs the previous season are good bets as home dogs in their followup  going 8-1-1 ATS since 1990 when taking 3 points or more. Truth is Buffalo is not that bad, and Tennessee is not that good despite of what the pundits might think after upsetting the Super Bowl Champs last week 26-23. Note:Away teams are just 13-41 SU and 15-39 ATS since 1992 after upsetting the defending Super bowl Champion. Im betting on an emotional letdown situation effecting the Titans this weak, and for redemption and embarrassment to be the catalyst for a Buffalo cover.

TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Wyoming is not as bad as their record would indicate and have the type of D, that can slow down the potent offensive attack of the Warriors. The Cowboys have held two opponents to season low offensive outputs and are under rated here on this trip to Hawaii to play a team that defensively challenged and  is looking tired after putting up some serious flyer reward points this season. 

HAWAII is 0-10 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons which was the case vs San Jose State last week.

HAWAII is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Wyoming is 7-1 L/8 trips to paradise island.

WYOMING is 6-0 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. 

The Hawaii  Rainbow Warrriors football program have been lousy favs in the past as is evident by their 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games as chalk, including 0-11 ATS the last eleven overall. 

CFBome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HAWAII) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 21-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

 Notre Dame is not a true 7 point favorite here on the road vs a well coached VTech team. Hey I respect how good the Irish have looked so far this season, but you have to respect  the Hokies as dogs here on their own home field.  Yes, Tech lost to Old Dominion a couple of weeks ago in perplexing fashion  but they did bounce back last week against a good Duke team in a 31-14 victory as underdogs. Backup QB Ryan Willis,  who was inserted after starting QB Jackson went down, was 17-for-26 for 332 yards with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions and must also be respected to keep his team moving forward this week.  Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14  as a home dog.  Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 home tilts against non-conference opposition with only one defeat coming  by more than a touchdown. Lane Stadium will be rocking, so if I were Notre Dame I wouldn't come a knocking.

 VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 14-44 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

After playing Alabama lat week this game  for UL Lafayette vs a struggling Texas State team will seem like a walk in the park. Another loss they suffered was to Miss State and a underrated Coastal Carolina and they must not be underestimated in their ability vs a much less talented group at like the Bobcats that are suppose to start a  freshman QB this week behind a inconsistent offensive line. The home team has not played anywhere near  the competition UL Lafayette has played and Im betting that will become evident here this Saturday. 

UL Lafayette is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series, with the last two showing 24-7 and 27-3 wins home and away.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference game are 43-16 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

A lot of pundits keep on betting on Kentucky not being the real deal. But after watching them a lot closer of late Im betting they are and won't go out here today without a fight vs Jimbo Fisher and company. The key to their ability to cover here will hinge on a defense that is  ranked 11th in the nation, allowing just 13 points and 288 yards per game. Thats not good news for Texas A&M QB Mond who struggled in a 24-17 win over Arkansas last week, going 17 of 26 for 201 yards. He threw two interceptions for the second straight game and is downgraded on my QB power rankings list.

KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover 

HC Mullen’s took out the Miss State Bulldogs last week and are now an impressive improved 3-0 SUATS and have won the stats battle in those 3 games since losing to a strong undefeated Kentucky football program in Week Two. I know that LSU is perfect on the season, and playing really good football, but Mullens is a coach that knows how to deal with teams like the Tigers as he was 4-0 ATS vs LSU when he coached Miss State. Last season these teams took part in a 17-16 sleepers the SWAMP and Im betting on another close game today. Oregon has not done well in his career vs.750 SEC opposition like the Gators , garnering a ugly 2-13 SU in that role.

Play on Florida to cover

Wow what a crazy situation Clemson finds itself in. QB Kelly Bryant announced he was leaving the team after HC Dabo Swinney decided to start Trevor Lawrence against Syracuse. However, Lawrence I'm sure much to the delight of Bryant and family. was forced out of the Orange game with an injury and backup Chase Brice,  took over. Thats never good for team morale, but their overall talent got them through that game vs Syracuse , but just barely barely 27-23. That game was at home, but here on the road where the Tigers are 0-9 ATS L/10 as 18 point or more favs Clemson is in trouble. Wake is seeking some payback vs Clemson losing 28-14 last season. Wake is a money making 9-0 ATS  L/9with ACC revenge and are 6-0 ATS skein as double-digit home dogs.

CLEMSON is 13-26 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. 

Clemson is 0-12 ATS  as a road favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Wake Forest to cover 

 Texas is the only Big 12 Conference team that holds an all-time series lead against the Sooners (61-46-5). The last four meetings  in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less,  with the  Horns taking the advantage via a  a 5-0 ATS series make in the  last five meetings. Im betting on more of the same tough close action here again and for the home team to get us the cover behind a solid D, and capable offense. 

TEXAS is 7-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-2 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Texas head coach Tom Herman is  11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a above .500 record.

Play on Texas to cover 

Alabama has accumulated much of its big numbers vs patsies this season, with the one decent team they played being Texas A&M and that game was alot closer than the lines makers expected. I know Arkansas in their current form may not inspire bettors but this is still a proud program that despite of going through growing pains is capable of covering here at home in front of their own alumni. The promise their showing comes via a Defence, that has allowed their last 3 opponents seasons low offensive outputs including last weeks 24-17 loss vs TexasA&M covering as 19 point dogs.  It must also be noted that only 3 times since 1977 spanning 274 games have the Hogs lost by more than 36  points. Don't get me wrong the Tide are a behemoth opponent and more than capable of blasting a team like Arkansas, but Im betting the Razorbacks come out here and play this game like a national championship. 

ARKANSAS is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.ARKANSAS is 20-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS) - with 17 or more total starters returning are 52-22 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Eastern Michigans football program is one of the most under rated college football programs in the nation. They can't seem to get over the hump when its comes to notching big wins, and are off a triple OT loss last time out vsN.Illinois,  but what they have consistently done is be very competitive opponents thanks to a gruelling hardcore brand of physical football. Today against Western Michigan Im betting on a very closely contested battle that favours the visitors to cover or pull off the SU upset. 

E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons and are 11-1 ATS L/12 as road underdogs in tis series vs Western Michigan.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Clayton Kershaw was little upset he did not get the start in game 1 of this series, and suggested to those listening he does not need to prove himself to anyone. Now a little cranky and with a lot to prove, after a couple of down performances to finish his season, Kershaw should be ready to make believers of his detractors. Right now I believe in Kershaw and the rest of the Dodgers as believe they are the superior side.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL are 13-91 L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory defeat coming by  2.4 rpg, which qualifies via a runline wager at -1.5 on the Dodgers. 

MLB Road teams against a 1.5 run line (ATLANTA) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 19-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers on the runline -1.5 

Talk about a revenge scenario. Well thats what we have tonight as the New England Pats host the Indianapolis Pats. The Colts were the team that essentially were the ones who reported Pats super star QB Tom Brady to the league for deflated balls, which supposedly gave him an advantage. Known as Deflategate it has been a sore spot for the Pats and their fans for a while, and Im betting some pay back will be at hand tonight no matter what Brady and Belichick say to the media. The Pats started slowly this season, but after watching them destroy of the undefeated Dolphins last week 38-7 Im betting on them to continue to explode, even if the often injured TE Gronkowski does not play because of a pulled hamstring.  Yes, the Pats might have seemed susceptible early on this season, thanks to a ugly rush stopping acumen, but a Colts teams ranked  29th in rushing won be a team that can take advantage of any perceived weaknesses.

The Colts' best receiver, T.Y. Hilton, is unlikely to play which also puts the Colts at a disadvantage. Indianapolis has very few other  offensive weapons and their  defense is shoddy to say the least and Im betting Brady can look at and go up and down the field all day long and make them pay big time with properly inflated balls.

Brady is 5-0 against Luck.

Patriots have won 9 of their L/12 on Thursday night    and are a profitable 20-8-2 ATS L30  as Home favorites and get the nod again tonight.

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10  off 2 or more consecutive unders. NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 

NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 17-45 L/35 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate. for bettors on the blind.

Play on New England to cover 

Georgia State pulled off the upset last week vs UL Monroe as 8 point home dogs, but nothing before that game suggested that this side has the cannolis to hang with an explosive Troy State team this week, as is indicated by having gone  0-3 SUATS while  their defence was gutted for  34, 59 and 41 points respectively.  With that said, I now expect a reversion to the norm for Georgia State against a behemoth opponent that will be wide awake coming into this tilt. 

TROY is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons winning by more than 19.7 ppg. 

Play on Troy to cover 

Former Texas Tech gun slinger Mohomes has KC playing all out Wild West run and shoot football. But what is a little concerning is KCs defence, which is allowing an average of 30.7 ppg.on 474 mpg for the leagues worst D. Im betting on Denvers 10th ranked offence doing some damage here today, and possibly puling off the upset. 

Denver QB Case Keenum is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against opposition coming off  three straight wins like KC. Night Football teams who are 3-0   as favorites of -7 points or less are 1-5 ATS  L/6 overall. 

NFL- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

Despite of the Steelers notching their first win of the season last time out  this past Monday, their were still some issues that stood out. The Steelers took a big lead vs TB in that Monday night game but did not score in the 2nd half, and still allowed 27 points as they now rank 29thin in the league in defence. With the Ravens averaging  32.3 points per game the Steelers will once again be tested and probably trampled on by a revenge minded Ravens group that lost 39-38 in last years blockbuster battle covering as 5 point dogs. I know the Ravens choked against Cincinnati last time out, but they will be wide awake for this tilt and ready to rock'n'roll. 

Another key difference maker in what will be a physical game  will come with discipline something,  Pittsburgh has struggled with this season as they have been penalized for an average of 120 yards per game,  which is easily the worst in the league.

The Ravens are  5-0 ATS as division dogs of more than 3 points. and  the Steelers are 1-7 ATS home after a Monday-nighter when taking on .500 or greater opponents. Also NFL Sunday night home chalk in division games against opposition coming off a victory, are just  8-18-2 SU and 5-22-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition .Home faves up to +7 are in a 1-14 ATS L/15 in Week 4 coming off their first victory of the season.

Play on the Ravens to cover 

When I saw that the Cardinals were being made underdogs at home , I understood why, but to a down trending team like Seattle, this underdog line favouring the home team becomes a value based option. I know Arizona has struggled to score, and has been shutout once this season, and only scored 14 ppg in their other two, but their offence despite of being conservative in nature shows some promise going forward. behind a true gun slinger in for UCLA star QB Josh Rosen who is expected to start this week. The pieces are being built for him to take off, despite of the cement shackles the coordinators are putting on him. With that said, I expect the Cards to make life tough on the Seahawks like they did on the Bears last week, and get us a cover. Note:1-2 chalk in Game Three off a victory are just 12-32 ATS and sides like Arizona  that have scored no more than 16 combined points in their past two games  are 76-31-1 ATS in the follow up. Yes, I know the Seahawks D, looked good last week in a win, but it also must be noted that the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS  L/7  after a home game where they allowed less than 14 points.

ARIZONA is 23-9 ATS in home games off a home loss.Carroll is 2-12 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Dolphins enter this game at 3-0 and are being made underdogs to the 1-2 New England Patriots. The lines makers are obviously not buying into their current record , and still feel the the Pats are most probably ready to take out their frustrations this week vs a team that is very over rated and also a little lucky to be undefeated so far. Considering the Bill Belichick and company are also in a revenge mode for a 27-20 loss at Miami in December of last year this line looks cheaper by the minute. It must be noted that the Pats are  11-1 ATSat home when playing with single-revenge. New England future hall of fame QB Tom Brady is also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming of consecutive losses in division games.

New England is 11-0 ATS L/11 when hosting a team that is off three consecutive wins.NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the New England Pats to cover 

Oregon is in a huge letdown situation after blowing a big lead vs Stanford last week and losing 38-31. This program despite of the accolades it is getting this season, by the pundits still is a long way off from a national contender, and might even be over rated here in the PAC12. Now still feeling the effects of last weeks horrifying loss will now play with these kids heads and Im betting they won't perform optimally against a tough and physical California D. Note: The Duckies are  0-13-1 ATS  away in Conference action when not taking more than 4 points, which is the case here tonight  vs a revenge minded Bears team that got beaten up in Eugene last season.Cal is   5-0-1 ATS at home under head coach Justin Wilcox.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OREGON is 1-8 ATS  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.HC Cristobal is 4-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached.

Play on California to cover 

 Washington has looked good this season, in wins against Auburn, Utah and Arizona State, but their doing it by averaging just  21 points per game. Here against a very physical and gruelling BYU defence allowing just 17 ppg, the sled dogs are not going to just cruise to an easy victory in my humble opinion. BYU proved their metal already this season when they went into Wisconsin and upset the Badgers as DDdogs, and almost did the same to a solid looking California Bears team losing 21-18 and also beating Arizona as 11.5  point away pups. Look for the Mormons  QB Tanner Mangum to do just enough to put up enough points to get us a cover in what should be a very hard fought tilt. 

WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS ( after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 7-18 ATS  as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992.BYU is 24-10 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 47-17 L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on BYU to cover 

Play on BYU to cover 

The Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) are averaging 55.5 points per game. The Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0) are also showing offensive explosiveness as is evident by scoring an average  54.5 per game  . However, I like the defensive physicality of the Nittany lions a lot more and in a game like this  and feel  their stopping abilities Gove them   the edge here on their own field. 

HC James Franklin  when coming off consecutive wins, is 16-2 SU and 17-1 ATS with Penn State behind QB Trace McSorley – with the only non cover coming against  Ohio State in a 39-38 heart breaker last season. the game they played before that was decided by a FG, which could easily be the difference maker here tonight. With that said lets take the points.

PENN ST is 9-0 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season.PENN ST is 15-1 ATS  off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Franklin is 9-0 ATS  off a road win as the coach of PENN ST. 

 ST is 1-9 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Detroit’s  starter Daniel Norris (0-5, 5.22 ERA) is having a horrendous time trying to find a win. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s Wade Miley (5-2, 2.32 ERA) has won three straight decisions and has been hot for a while now allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight trips to the hill and is 6-0 in his last six starts overall. Needless to say Milwaukee has the edge here with Miley on the hill. Add to that the Brewers are brewing big time right now, winning four in a row while scoring at least 6 runs in three of those tilts, and should be ready to unload here and keep the gravel train flowing towards the play offs. 

Note:Detroit manager Ron Gardenhire said earlier this month that his team was focused more on building for the future than it was playing a potential spoiler role, so Im not looking for a lot of effort from the manager to try to derail Milwaukee in this spot. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers on the runline 

Wyoming has a huge problem moving the chains, as was evident by barely getting by lower tier Wofford last week with a 17-14 victory and the won't do much damage here this week vs Boise State defence with a chip on their shoulders after getting smacked around by Oklahoma State last time out. Now with an extra week of rest this talented and redemption minded Broncos team should be ready to put the proverbial pedal to the metal and control the line of scrimmage from start to a finish in what Im betting will be one sided action. While I don't adhere to laying this much lumber with a road side on a consistent basis, there are certain situations such as this one that warrant me doing so. Lay the points with this under appreciated group of 5 favourite.

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Play on Boise State to cover 

Washington State and air orientated attack is going to have their hands full with a strong Utes,  defence anchored by Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson in the secondary  . Utah’s linebackers and safeties, are a also  top tier group should make life miserable for a young group that just got out scored 39-35 by USC last week and could easily be in an emotional letdown scenario . Utes will also be well rested and very ready thanks to their Week Four bye.  Add to that payback for loss suffered last season at home , and I expect this very physical group of Utes to lay down some hurt this week on their way to a victory.

UTAH is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (UTAH) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 41-9. SU L27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 

The Cincinnati Bearcats used up a lot of energy last week in a come from behind win vs Ohio. The Bearcats were down 21-0 before mounting that ferocious  comeback and will now be in a little tired after putting out that much effort in a 34-30 win as 7 point chalk. It must  noted that Cincinnati is 0-13-1 ATS  last 16 seasons  off a game as a home favorite where they allowed at least 28 points. I know UConn looks bad this season, but anything is possible in College football as has been evident in some massive upsets the last few weeks. With that said, take the points with the home side that actually sets up well in most of my projections.

Play on UConn to cover 

The Warhawks are coming off consecutive setbacks at the hands of Texas A&M and Troy and now many pundits  probably  are looking at this as easy win and an opportunity to get back on track vs a struggling Georgia State program.  But not so fast UL Monroe, fans. Georgia State despite of losing 3 straight are a side that matches up well agains the Warhawks on my head to head matchup charts  and in power rankings analysis . These kids on UL Monroe were jacked up to play two strong schools last couple of weeks and despite of wanting a win here to get back on track could find themselves bruised and battered and in a bit of a letdown situation. 

GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

 Texas Techs offence is hitting on all cylinders scoring 181 points in their L/3  three games. all wins. West Virginia can score in bunches at well, but after beating Texas Tech last season, I expect the revenge minded Red Raiders have the edge here at home.

W VIRGINIA is 7-20 ATS L/27  in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.TEXAS TECH is 21-9 ATS L/30 in home games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry. TEXAS TECH is 7-0 ATS in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS TECH) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Nick Saban has a tendency to use games like this  to get his banged up players healthy and to have a look at some of his younger top tier recruits. This is like a bye week for this powerful Alabama team, and Im betting they just coast to victory this week in merciful fashion. 

Saban L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA have seen Alabama score an average of 34.7 ppg, while the opposition has averaged 9.3 ppg, the average margin of victory coming by 25.4 ppg.Saban  L/24  in home games in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ALABAMA have been his team offences put an average of just 34.6 ppg on the board and win by an average of 25.7 ppg. 

UL Lafayette to cover 

 Buffalo only ranks 61st in rushing defense despite of going against some lousy running teams this season. Army controlled their last game against a potent Oklahoma team losing in OT. I know some might think they will be a letdown situation, but this is a tough West Point minded group that won't lie down no matter what. Im betting they deal well with another tough test this week vs another explosive offense. Look for Army to do what it does best behind the option as they control the tempo of this game. This will be frustrating for Buffalo and their NFL bound QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson. Each of the 3 most meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less and another one is a high probability out come. The last two were decided by 4 and 3 points.

BUFFALO is 2-12 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.

Play on Army to cover

Colorado is 3-0 on the season, while UCLA is 0-3 , and the stats and numbers also favour  Colorado. However, my power rankings and head to head  defensive vs offensive matchup algorithms suggest we have value with the underdog that has had two weeks to prepare for their opponents . Chip Kelley and company are desperate to salvage this season, and will leave everything on the filed this Friday night in what Im betting will be a Bruins cover.

Note: Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 at home.

 UCLA is 12-2 ATS  L/14 after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games .

Play on UCLA Bruins to cover 

The Rockies enter this tilt against Washington with a half-game lead in the NL West and are rumbling towards the playoffs as they are currently on a 6 game win streak behind a red hot offence that has accumulated at least 10 runs or more  in their last three trips to the diamonds. Im betting Freeland the Rockies starter (16-7, 2.84 ERA) who has won seven straight decisions gets his team to the promised land in what Im betting will be a one side affair that features a hot team looking for a play off spot and a team that is just playing out the string. 

FREELAND is 14-2 SU in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average margin of victory coming by 2.3 rpg. 

Pitching matchup discrepancy : Freeland is 1-0, 3.72 in two starts against Washington. Ross is 0-0, 9.64 in one four-inning relief appearance against the Rockies on April 25, 2017, at Coors Field.

The Nationals have lost 17 straight in the first game of a series with rest as dog of more than 130 vs a team that has won at least their last two games with the last 7 coming by multiple runs , as they have been outscored 53 to 13, which is a 5.71 rpg average deficit. 

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the runline 

Willie Fritz has assembled a tough bunch here in Tulane and its one of this programs betters group of  talent, behind what is a never say die defence that actually stood tall against Ohio State vaunted offence last week. Ya they were smashed , but man did they look determined. Their no pushovers, and Im so impressed by them that Im willing to recommend we take the points here vs visits Memphis. Note: HC Fritz has won 17 of 25 home games and is 6-1 ATS as home pup of 5 points or more. 

TULANE is 6-0 ATS  in home games after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons

MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.MEMPHIS is 4-16 ATS L/20 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened last week in a 52- 35 victory vs South Alabama.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MEMPHIS) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 14-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

The North Carolina Tar Heels will meet the Miami Hurricanes in nationally-televised college football action on Thursday, September 27 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Canes are almost a 3 TD fav, which is out of whack compared to where true line value sits at about 17 points. Thus taking points here tonight is an easy decision. 

N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 13-42 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Carolina to cover 

Pittsburgh at 0-2 does not currently look like a power house team thanks in part to a defence that  looks highly inconsistent.What Im trying to say is that the Steelers look to be a weaker pick than many might anticipate here this Monday night. I'm betting on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (back to back 400 yard games) and a talented collection of playmakers that include DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin to do some damage here tonight on their way to a cover. QUOTE:"I respect what they've done. I'm not so sure I'm surprised," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said of Tampa Bay's emergence with wins against the New Orleans Saints and the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. END QUOTE:

Tomlin is 6-16 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS as Monday Night home dogs when coming off non-divisional tilt. 

It  must also be noted that TB should not be underestimated here no matter how desperate the Steelers are as NFL teams like Tampa Bay  coming off consecutive straight up underdog wins, are 12-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS as dogs.

Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover