The Wildcats  were upset last week in Stillwater against Oklahoma State but will now in a big bounce back situation vs Texas Tech this week. I know Texas Tech is off a big win last time out vs Baylor . Note:. K-State is 11-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS defeat. and  11-1 ATS following a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, .Texas Tech is 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series and are fade material vs what my own power ranking suggest is the superior side. Also the Wildcats will be coming into the game with a little extra rest and their energy levels will be high as thyey look for redemption. 

Play on Kansas State 

Louisville is in a huge emotional letdown situation after smashing Notre Dame last week in all out effort. Needless to say they are vulnerable here on the road in Pittsburgh this week, against a sub par side that still however boasts the best run defense in the nation and must not be underestimated. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Pittsburgh 7-2 ATS L/9 in this series vs the Cardinal. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

Memphis lost a 38-28 decision on the road to Tulane last season and now have revenge on board for what is a must win situation tonight at home since the Tigers will play 4 of their L/6 games on the road after tonight. The Tigers only loss this season came by a TD deficit vs Missouri and they must not be underestimated in their abilities. It must be noted Memphis is 8-1 ATS L/9 at home as a underdog. 

Memphis  is 10-1 SU at home in this series L/11 meetings. 

CFB Home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%)or more  playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis Tigers to cover

West Virginia is on a nice 4-0 ATS run but it must be noted they lost the stats battles in their last 2 wins both as underdogs and are being over rated here tonight vs what can be an explosive offensive foe in Houston.  Note:CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover

Florida International has revenge on board for a ugly 40-6  road loss last season to UTEP and Im betting they will be prepared to get pay back here tonight. 

Florida International have proved they have improved this season already notching 3 wins vs , Uconn , N.Texas and Maine. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against UTEP since 1992 at home. Utep has lost 4 straight snd are winless in their L/ 5 tries against FBS teams, also going 0-5 against the spread (ATS). UTEP is winless in 3 road tilts this season, losing the last 2 games by 21 or more points. 

UTEP has lost 11 of their L/12 road games.

UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.UTEP is 0-6 ATS   after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 season.

Play on FIU to cover

 The Diamondbacks used a six-run first inning against Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw in Game 1, scoring five of those runs before making their first out of the evening, to earn an 11-2 victory on Saturday and its now bounce back time for a now wide awake Dodgers team.

Dbacks starter Gallen gave up five earned runs in a start seven times this season and two were against the Dodgers, including Aug. 28 at Los Angeles where he allowed   career-worst four homers whike serving up  six runs in a 7-4 loss. That came during a three-game sweep by the Dodgers when the D-backs were outscored 23-5. My power rankings suggest Gallen does not matchup well here vs a explosive Dodgers batting order.

Dodgers starter Miller faced the D-backs twice this season and went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings.

LA DODGERS are 15-3  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher  like Gallen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +4.3 which qualifies on this runline offering. LA DODGERS are 17-3  against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.5 which easily qualifies on this runline offering. 

ARIZONA is 2-15  against the money line in road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff registering in at -3.2 which qualifies on this run line offering. 

MLB. Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are 35-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3. 

Play on LA Dodgers to win -1.5 

The pundits and media love how well RB Christian  Mcaffery has played so far for the 49ers. But it must be noted that the Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433. Also the Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%. So as this game goes on Im betting on the Cowboys to be hard to score on in what Im aslo betting will be a very competitive affair with the points being golden in the end. 

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 16-3 ATS  in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 3-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. McCarthy is 13-3 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Cowboys are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

The Eagles are being over rated here today against the Rams. In the Phillies first game of the season, they were out gained handily by the Patriots and still found a way to win, and three of their victories were all one score decisions, including last weeks OT winner. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Rams have registered better offensive and defensive numbers than the Eagles, to this point in the campaign and must be respected here getting points on their own home field. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.The Eagles have lost 16 of their 25 SU vs NFC West. 

LA RAMS are 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry .

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover

We have an early season, QB alert on board as the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is playing a top tier brand of football under center  Entering this game he is off a  280 yard and two touchdown performance last week in a  30-6 thumping  of the  Pittsburgh Steelers . It must be noted that he is the  first QB in league history to average 300 passing yards  in the first tilts of the campaign and has given up no interceptions so far . The same cannot be said, about Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder who has seen his team score just 6 and 7 points in their last two trips to the gridiron including last weeks London England loss to the Jags. Now coming off a trip across the pond Im betting the Falcons will be a bit jet lagged and for the offense to continue to plummet. 

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS L/7 non division games. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texans to cover

Giants have been embarrassed a couple times already this season, and are off a ugly home loss on Monday night vs Seattle. It must be noted however, that the Gmen are 6-0 ATS L/6 after a MNF battle. With Miami now hot with a reality blow last week to their egos vs the Bills, Im betting it will be  hard for the Fins to get motivated and up off the matt vs a side that hardly brings respect  with them.

NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

MIAMI is 1-9 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (NY GIANTS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with the Giants to cover

I know the Panthers have not won this season,  but they  held two of their four opponents  to season-low yardage and must not be underestimated in this ability to be competitive vs the Lions today. Note: Reich is 15-3 ATS  L/18 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in all games he has coached in his career. 

Carolina is 16-8 ATS L/24  as underdogs against the NFC North . 

Detroit is 1-6 ATS L/7 as non division home favs of 3 points or more. 

Carolina is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series.

NFL home favorites (DETROIT) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Texans Im betting on a huge rebound here today against the Ravens  by a 30-6 count. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and believe or not the culture of grit still remains in the Steel City. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS  in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

The last 4 meetings in this series has seen the Steelers win 3 of those games with all of the tilts being low scoring physical grinders with each game decided by 3 points or less . Im betting nothing changes today. 

BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Steelers to cover

.I know Louisville is getting alot of accolades this season, but the harsh truth is they are a level or two below the visiting Irish. Louisville in my opinion is not a national contender while Notre Dame is this season which was obvious in how they handled Ohio State, despite of their last second loss. Just one thing, I must mention and that is  Im not bashing the Cardinal they are a fine looking speedy team, but the Irish are just a superior side. Also it must be noted that the Cardinal are 1-3 in the stats battles against FBS sides despite of being 5-0 this season. Cards passing D, is also allowing an average 7.4 YPP, which is not a good omen against a arm like QB Hartman and his accomplished WRs. 

 The Fighting Irish have owned the ACC in the  recent  past from a betting perspective going a perfect 10-0 SUATS L/10   and are  6-0 SUATS with HC Marcus Freeman on the sidelines  with the  average winning ppg  diff clicking in at  +19.5 PPG.

Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here and for the Iriish to come out of this with a conclusive victory and more importantly a cover. 

CFB home team (LOUISVILLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Notre Dame to cover

The Cougars star  junior quarterback Cam Ward is really something to watch and must be respected . He has 14 TDs and no interceptions and leads the nations 2nd best offensive passing attack. The Cougars a team averaging 45 points per game,  and are live dogs here in my betting opinion vs a UCLA  side that does not look as fluid or a consistent as the Cougars.  Note: Kelly is 4-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of UCLA . Advantage Washington State 

Washington States football program is  17-0 ATS L/17  in games following a SU underdog victory  .

CFB home team (UCLA) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games are 6-26 L/30 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB toad underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more  YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 35-12 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover

Buffalo has momentum after garnering a road win in OT last time out at Akron. BUFFALO is 16-6 ATS  in home games off a win against a conference rival. Meanwhile, Central Michigan despite of a 3-2 record this season, has been far from dominant with all  3 of their wins ending in 4 point or less margin differentials. Considering the Chips are 0-7 ATS L/7  as favs vs sub .500 sides like the Bulls it will not be a difficult proposition for me to take points here with the home side. C MICHIGAN is  also just 1-8 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Last season the Longhorns smashed the the Sooners by a 49-0 count and now Oklahoma has big time revenge on board. It must be noted 5-0 teams like Texas going against an avenging foe are just 23-43-2 ATS since 1980. Texas is also 0-9 ATS L/9 on the road vs conference side with revenge like the Sooners. 

The Longhorns are  1-5 SU all time  when in. a battle of undefeated teams.  

TEXAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. 

According to my projections these teams are evenly matched thus getting this many points is a blessing in disguise. I know   Mathew McConaughey might disagree but Im sticking to my guns here and taking the points with the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl today.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover

Everyone and his dog now is up an arms against the viability of this Illinois team after a gutless effort against Purdue last time out in a ugly 44-10 loss as road chalk. HC Bret Bielema is now officially on the hot seat after being the darling of the Illinois fan base coming to this season. I know alot of ppl have lost faith in Illini, but Im going to actually back them against a Nebraska  program that just cant get over the hump and maybe even more lacking in the respect category.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are just  42-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +22.5 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEBRASKA) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-62 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate with the qverqge ppg diff clicking in at -19.9 which easily qualifies in this ATS offering. 

Play on Illinois to cover

 Washingtons issues right now are on defense where they have allowed 33, 37, 34 points in their L/3 games. Also the Commanders are now in an emotional  letdown spot after playing all out football against the Eagles last time out  before eventually losing in OT. I know the bad news Bears are really reeling, but after a 0-4 start will desperate for a win and in desperation mode have an edge vs a vulnerable Commanders side . 

WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, in the first half of the season are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-24 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Bears to cover

The Phillies Im betting get the  series sweep when they host the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of a wild-card series on Wednesday. Philadelphia took the opener of the best-of-three set 4-1 on Tuesday and my projections make them strong favs for a convincing victory tonight. My power rankings suggest Braxton Garrett, a f hurler who has never pitched in the playoffs and went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA in 31 games (30 starts) this season does not matchup well here vs this explosive Phillies batting order. In yesterdays win every Philadelphia player in the starting lineup had at least one hit of the team's 11 total hits. Rinse and repeat here today.

MLB Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), in October games are 30-10 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to win -1.5 runline 

The Giants need a won here desperately as after tonight's game they go against, Dolphins and Bills in successive weeks. I know NYG has a some issues with key 
RB Barkely out , but Im betting QB Daniels and company can slice and dice a weak Seattle secondary, and a /defensive group that ranks 27th in EPA per play and 26th in Success Rate. Gmen are 7-1 ATS when coming off a loss and 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday prime prime time  tilt. 

NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS L/23 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

Carroll is 15-25 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - terrible passing team (5.3 or less PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (7.3 or more  PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 23-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Raiders QB Garoppolo may not start this week, but one thing is for sure he is not performing optimally right now and if hes replaced I dont believe the it will be a difference maker. Despite of this QB situation with Vegas, I do believe they matchup well here overall vs a San Diego Chargers side that played hard last week in Minnesota for their first win of the season, and is now in an emotional letdown situation . Chargers QB Herbert finished 40-of-47 for a career-high 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, but now regression must be expected. 

Bottom line : Considering the QB situation for Vegas I expect star RB Jacobs  who rushed for a league-leading 1,653 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.9 yards a carry to be key here in keeping the Raiders on the edge of victory today. It must be noted that the Chargers have looked sub par on  on defense this season,   ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense (450.7 ypg allowed) and 32nd in passing defense (337.0 ypg allowed). So even if Hoyer or the rookie Aidan O'Connell starts the Chargers sub par secondary should seal their fate with Jacobs setting up the pass with his legs. 

A CHARGERS are 14-28 ATS (L/42  in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game.

NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover

The New York Liberty cruised to victory  by a score of 92-81 in Game 3 of this series and now have momentum back on their sides entering this game on the road in Connecticut. Liberty won 19 of their L/22 road games this season, with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.2. 

Liberty are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Liberty are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.NEW YORK is 17-8 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 7-0 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 7-0 ATS  in road games after 4 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

 WNBA Favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) after 15 or more games are 33-3 L/26 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors withnthe average ppg diff clicking at +9.6 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Liberty 

Philadelphia got blasted last season in embarrassing fashion in a  Monday Night home loss as double-digit favs  to the Commanders last season and now want revenge. However, like Mick Jagger of the iconic Rolling stones  likes to say ' you don't always get what you want. With that said, Im betting on another gritty performance from a never say die group of commodores in what will be a much closer game the the lines-makers are estimating. Washington HC Rivera is 21-9 ATS L/30 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached. 

NFL team (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 47-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Bengals are on short rest after a grinding and physical battle on Monday night  vs the Rams, and are not 100% at the quarter back position with Joe Burrows playing banged up with a bad ankle. Here against a very strong defensive Titans front the Bengals Im betting have a hard time being consistent offensively. Advantage Titans. 

TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons.TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS   in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 6-21 L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover

Carolina despite of a top tier offense, are now in desperation mode as they search for their first victory of the season .  Their issues have come mostly because of turnovers , but that should rectify itself as the season progresses. Luckily for the Vikes they take on a 0-3 Carolina side that is less talented and even more inept as is evident by -9 ppg diff on the season. Im betting on  quarterback Kirk Cousins, who enters Week 4 with a league-leading 1,075 passing yards to really light things up here this Sunday as the Vikings come away with a convincing victory. 

CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS n home games vs. sub par punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover

The Colts offense is less than spectacular and that corresponds to  QB Gardner Minshew’s record of 2-10 SU in his L/12 trips to the gridiron. I know the Indy thanks  to some strong D and  fine FG kicking found a way past the Ravens last week for their 2nd straight win , but  it must be noted that the Colts despite of their decent run have been outgained in each of their games this season. . It must also be noted that the Colts are  0-8-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive SUATS victories, .  Add to that Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against opposition coming off a SU underdog victory. I like the Rams coaching their overall team chemistry especially Stafford at QB  and feel strongly they come out of here with a cover this Sunday. 

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence,   has just one touchdown pass in the last two games and its obvious this team is in a funk, and according to my power rankings fade material in this current form vs a solid Falcons D. Here in a game against and Atlanta side built to run the ball, Im betting a grinding clock will keep the Jags out of tempo on offense and cause more problems for them. What Im saying is this is not a good matchup for the Jags. Note:JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS  against NFC South division opponents since 1992 and is 1-9 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Atlanta owns a  2-0 ATS record  in the international series and have covered their L/ 6 ATS  vs the Jags. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

Im betting Western Michigans Jalen Buckley,  who has registered 4 TDS already this season  while averaging  125 YPG will be key to the Broncos finding the win column. Considering Ball State just cant move the ball inconsistently and constantly making bad reads on offense as is evident by a  5  interceptions and just  3 TDs.   Ball State is losing the stats battles  an average of 172 YPG including allowing a whopping  40 or more points in their 3 ugly losses. 

CFB  Road underdogs vs. the money line (BALL ST) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-60 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Michigan 

Texas Tech lost West Virginia last time out on the road by a 20-14 count and will now be in bounce back mode at home here today. The Raiders are just 1-3 this season, but in a specific outing against top 10 Oregon they looked like they matched up well and only lost by a 38-30 count and must be respected here against a defensively deficient  Houston side that has already lost to Rice and TCU  while allowing 43 and 36 points respectively. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS  off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.7 . 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Texas Tech) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover

South Floridas offensive line is horrendous already allowing 19 sacks and that will be their downfall today vs a physical Navy front 7. On the flip-side the Middies Im betting will plough through the Bulls defense via their vaunted one way ground attack. Also after a extra week of rest and now playing at home Im betting we see  Navy at their very best.

NAVY is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NAVY is 13-4 ATS ( against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Blowing a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a Northwestern program that was on the ropes is arguably the worst loss of head coach P.J. Fleck's time in Minnesota. This kind of embarrassing loss will have Fleck prepared to coach a big game against a lower tier side. Getting off the hot seat is of prime importance and getting the Gopher fans to lay down their pitchforks  I believe Fleck has the personnel to get it done this week in convincing fashion after last weeks gutless sleepy effort. Note: UL Lafayette has allowed an average of 36 ppg so far this season in what looks to be a wide open type of game plan. Im betting that wont work well against this power 5 opponent. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 0-9 ATS  after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (they beat Mac side Buffalo last week in a 45-38 shootout) Regression expected. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Minnesota ) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

Penn State is the real deal and in my opinion a true national contender, and my thought s were reinforced after watching them slam dunk Iowa 31-0. With that said,  Im betting they will be wide awake here knowing their opponent Northwestern came back form a 31-10 deficit in the 4th quarter last time out for a miraculous 34-31 win vs Minnesota. From a talent and coaching  perspective this line does not do the discrepancies justice, and laying this may points is not a problem for me. Note: Penn State when coming off consecutive SUATS victories , is 13-0-1 ATS in conference tilts. Also NW is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS after a SU victory. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

Im betting Kentucky has finally arrived as a SEC side to be feared and not because of their talent but their grit  . I know Florida has the bigger brand name and following, but the Wildcats proved recently they can handle the Gators as was evident last season when they took out the Gators on the road and also ended a 14 game home losing streak in this series back in 2021.  FLORIDA is 2-10 ATS   off a home win over the last 3 seasons.

The Wildcats defense has forced multiple takeaways in three of the four tilts and has been solid  against the run and hasn’t allowed anyone to record 100 yards on the ground. Florida Im betting will be forced to be more one dimensional and despite of some good results this season, are in for a more formidable experience here today against a gritty Kentucky football program that plays with pride and passion. 

KENTUCKY is 14-4 ATS  in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half are 39-2  L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats 

Both BYU and Cincinnati are off losses last week, but Im betting the Bearcats wont be able to bounce back as easily as they were physically smothered and battered by the Oklahoma D, only scoring 6 points and when nearing the  red zone looked completely lost. In the Cougars loss to Kansas BYU ran more plays for more yards than the Jayhawks but turnovers proverbially  killed them. 

This week in this matchup Im betting on a BYU D, that has looked good against the run to slow down the Beracats attack, and on the flipside for the potent Cougars passing attack to do well vs a Cincinnati D, that does better against the run than the pass. I know BYU has had a tremendous amount of trouble running the ball, but their passing attack behind Slovis has been explosive and that Im betting will be key to them getting the cover here at home. 

CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons

CFB road team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 3-27 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Aces enter this game on a 8 game win streak, and are showing complete dominance over their opponents, and over a recent 5 game span have outscored their opposition by an average of 17.2 ppg and by the first two games of this series vs Dallas  by 14 and 7 points respectively.  Dallas did play better last time out, but that will make the Aces all that more aware, and concentrated. Note:LAS VEGAS is 13-4 ATS  off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicked in at 13.9. 

Play on Vegas to cover 

Cardinal getting a little bit to much respect here as they have failed to cover both road games this season. Meanwhile, NC State 3-1  has yet to really get untracked behind QB transfer from Virginia Brennan Armstrong who according to my QB matchup ratings matches up well vs this Louisville secondary. Advantage to the home underdog. 

LOUISVILLE is 27-44 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover

The Rockies when playing at home, area dangerous underdog opponent. Coors Field is a wild card environment, and that was evident when Colorado took game one of this series as close +200 underdogs. Im once again betting on the spoilers giving the Dodgers all they can handle today making the runline a viable investment option. 

MLB Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more  runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 11-39 L/26 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

Play on Colorado +1.5 runline 

The Sun are fourth in the WNBA in points scored (82.7 per game) and best in points allowed (79).The Sun make 7.2 3-pointers per game and shoot 36% from beyond the arc, ranking sixth and fourth, respectively, in the league.In 2023 the Sun are second-best in the league in 3-pointers conceded (6.7 per game) and best in defensive 3-point percentage (32.1%) which matches up well against a three point centric Liberty offense. Sun are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference.Sun are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Sun are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The Liberty have been propelled by their explosive offense,   ranking second-best in the WNBA by scoring 89.2 points per game. They rank fourth in the league in points allowed (80.6 per contest). The  Liberty average  7.5 three-pointers conceded per game, and are fifth in the WNBA. They are allowing a 34.1% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks fifth in the league. Which is not a good omen for them covering vs a a strong 3 point D. 

New York has beaten the spread just  19 times in 41 games despite of a strong w/L record. As 9.5-point favorites or more, the Liberty are a sub .500 9-12 ATS. 

In closing it will be the Sun out side D, that will be the difference maker. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover

 The Diamondbacks will give the ball to right-hander Zach Davies (2-5, 6.81 ERA).  Davies has not pitched more than four innings in any of his past three starts. His ERA was 7.11 on June 18, and it has not gone below 6.37 since then. He is fade material in his current form, and is being over rated here on this RL line offering. In two career starts against the White Sox, Davies is 0-1 with a 10.57 ERA. He gave up nine runs on 13 hits in 7 2/3 innings during those tilts. I know the White Sox Urena has not pitched much better, but it must be noted that the Dbacks  are  0-6   against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA is 1-11 ) against the money line vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (CHI WHITE SOX) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  6.50 or more  over his last 10 starts are 63-17 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago White Sox on the +1.5 runline 

The Bengals QB Joe  Burrow  is not 100% after he aggravated his right calf strain in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. His calf has not been 100% since training camp started. Burrow did not practice Thursday  and was expected to practice Monday morning but even if he plays will not be as mobile as he needs to be against aggressive groups of Rams. Meanwhile, Rams star QB Stafford recently  passed Peyton Manning for the third-most passing yards by a player in his first 200 regular-season games (52,723 yards in 193 games). Rams won their first game of the season, but lost to their nemesis last week the  Niners. Stafford completed 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards and is primed to come back strong this week vs what has looked like a unstable Bengals secondary so far this season. I know the Bengals are desperate for a win, but without a healthy Burrows at the helm of the offense that task will not be an easy one. NFL Home favorites (CINCINNATI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Bears are not a respected team, and after 12 straight losses are a side that is not getting much respect from the linesmakers against what is obviously a far superior side the KC Chiefs. The Bears are not expected to be competitive this week, but I think few are considering that the Chiefs may not be very motivated while the opposite will hold true for a Bears group playing loose and with nothing to lose. With that said Im willing to take the DD point spread in complete contrarian action. KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Bears have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to KC. 

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover

Im not buying in on a Seattle resurgence,  and this week against Carolina Im betting on an emotional letdown scenario to hamper the home side. Last week the Seahawks, grabbed a overtime victory against the  Detroit Lions in a heart pumping affair.  Meanwhile,  the Panthers were edged out by a FG  at  home against  the New Orleans Saints in prime time  Monday night action. I myself see major upward momentum and confidence building in Carolina, Note:  Seahawks are 0-4 ATS  L4  vs the NFC South,  

Also I know Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft in April, is banged up and  didn't participate in Wednesday's walk-through practice because of an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Seahawks (1-1) But Veteran Andy Dalton is a more than capable starter for the Panthers and could easily make the Panthers offense more cohesive.

SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 11-39 ATS since 1983 for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover

Miami has started their season at 2-0 while their opponents the Denver Broncos  have lost their first two games but by a combined 3 points. Denver has consistently been competitive but just cant get over the hump for a W, but when getting points must respected from. a ATS perspective. Denver has lost 9 straight games where it had the lead at half time. Quote "As we've learned the past few years, almost every game is one score -- seven points, three points," Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III said.  Quote "We need to finish those games 'cause we've lost too many over the past four years that I've been here." end quote. Today Im betting new HC Sean Payton finds a way to stay in this game here in Miami against a Fins side, that is coming home after two hard fought affairs, vs the Chargers and Patriots and could easily be in a emotional letdown situation this week. Its not an easy proposition to keep your energy levels up as a team for three straight games in the ultra physical NFL. Note: HC Payton  24-6-2 ATS in his NFL career against sides  coming off a victory.

MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Play on Denver Broncos to cover

Houston has owned the Jags in previous  meetings here in Jacksonville Florida winning   15 of their L/18 visits here  SU and have cashed  5 of their L/6  SU/ATS as a underdog in this series overall.  I know  Houston has lost both their games so far this season, but they did win the stats war in both games and must not be underestimated in their ability to get the job done here again. I know The Jags  smashed the host Texans 31-3 in Week 17 of last season to end a nine-game losing streak against Houston, but now with big time revenge on board and the desperation of needing a victory Im betting on a big time effort from the visitors. 

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has never won at home as a NFL favorite going 0-4 ATS while losing 3 of 4 SU. It must also be noted that  Jacksonville is  1-14 ATS as a favorite if they  were a underdog in their last game. JACKSONVILLE is 22-38 ATS L/60 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Texans to cover 

I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat,    This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents   On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. 

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

KState lost at Missouri last time out as favs and will now be very prepared to bounce back at home this week vs visiting UCF. Note: KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS STATE is also 11-2 ATS when coming off their first loss of the season. UCF against their only FBS opponent this season lost to Boise State by a 18-16 count, and things look to be alot more tougher this week against a motivated opponent looking to get back into the win column. 

UCF is 0-7 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF beat up on a lower tier Villanova side last week by a 48-14 count ) 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 36-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking at +23.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Kansas State to cover

What  stands out here for me when I decided to take the points is Sam Houstons  D, which held their first two opponents to under 260 yards  while holding BYU and Air Force to 14 and 13 respectively. With the Cougars off a TCU battle, and now looking ahead  the Bearkats have a team that could find their motivational skills tested . Houston has lost the stats battle in all 3 games this season ,  and just dont look all that cohesive vs a upstart that will rattle them physically. Note: Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS this season. HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS  as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sam Houston to cover

Wow what an embarrassment last week for the Razorbacks , at home vs BYU. Talk about falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel. The reason why I say this is that the Hogs owned the stats battle, outing gaining the Cougars by a 424-281 margin. Now going against a team that they were probably looking ahead in a  revenger for last season loss  against LSU  (LSU beat Arkansas 13-10), I expect  Sam Pittman  who has only failed in  one of  8 ATS as is visitor with revenge  to get the job done here . Note: Arkansas is also  7-1-1 ATS  on the road with conference revenge on board. .  : LSU is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 when favored by 13 or more points in conference home openers. .

Play on Arkansas to cover

Its obviously taking some time to get this version of the Crimson Tide to tho jell, but you can bet HC Saban will be primed to have his team prepared for undefeated Ole Miss here this week, after his first home game of the season vs Texas ended in surprising disaster. Last time out after that debacle the Tide started slowly but the D, shined in. a17-3 win vs USF, and once again will be the key to a Alabama victory here today vs a program they have beaten 15 of the L/16 times. It must also be noted that Saban in his  career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, is 8-0 SUATS the L/8 opportunities and is also 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory and 4-0 SU/ATS versus undefeated sides with huge DD margin of victory being registered . Its been tough sledding on offense for Alabama but this week vs a over rated Ole Miss D, they do enough to get us the win and cover on a beat down opening line.   .

Play on Alabama to cover 

Vanderbilt could not even beat a Mountain West team last week losing to UNLV by a 40-37 count. I know that Kentucky plays Florida next week, but Im absolutely sure they will still be focused enough to dispose of this defensively deficient Commodores team in what will be a near empty stadium this Saturday.  CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 43-1 SU with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +23.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Kentucky to cover

 Clemson not getting much respect here as the Seminoles are listed a road favs.  Thats interesting since considering   Dabo  Swinney is 93-8 SU since taking over the program 15 seasons ago ,  and  in Death Valley against undefeated opposition is  14-0 since 2015.  It must also be noted that the Seminoles may not be as good as they record suggests after a ugly late game effort vs Boston College last week, where they just about lost,. With  head coach Mike Norvell  losing 3 of 5 SU  and just 1-4 ATS away in conference games when coming in with no losses, its not like the Seminoles deserve this much respect as Norvell has lost both meetings against Swinnney in his career.  Tigers are  also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five in this  series  and get the nod again on their own home turf. CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS   in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game since 1992. FLORIDA ST is 21-37 ATS  in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) . an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 45-16 ATS since 1992 for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clemson to cover

Wisconsin has owned this series winning 16 straight meetings and covering 13 of those. With HC Fickell looking like he has this Badgers team on the rise again, Im betting they get the job done vs a disorganized looking Purdue side, that continually makes bad offensive reads and a defense that has allowed and average of 30 plus points per game. 

Play on Wisconsin to cover

Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Giants much of a chance this week. However, my projections estimate this line is bloated and gives us value with the road underdog. The The Giants proved their offense can be explosive as was evident in a  31 points  second half output against the Cardinals in Week 2 for a come from behind victory and must be underestimated in their ability to some damage here this week in San Francisco. I know the Gmens top tier  RB Saquon Barkley is banged up and may not play, but even then my projections say this is just to much lumber for the 49ers to lay. Advantage Giants.

NY GIANTS are 22-9 ATS L/31 in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game .NY GIANTS are 18-4 ATS  L/22 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in September games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Georgia State looked explosive in thier first 3 games of the season with wins vs Rhode Island Connecticut and Charlotte scoring 42,35, and 41 points respectively. With revenge on board for a ugly loss to Coastal Carolina last season, you can bet we will be backing a wide awake side that will come out here with all guns blazing. With that said, its interesting to note that the Chanticleers are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 vs a side that will play them with revenge as a motivating factor.  

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

 GEORGIA ST is 11-1 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

Play on Georgia State to cover

Los Angeles (68-82)  without their injured star Shohei Ohtani are fade material in their current form. 

Halos starter SANDOVAL is 1-11  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)

LA ANGELS are 14-31 SU when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season with the average rpg diff clicking in -2.3 . 

LA ANGELS are 9-20 SU after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season with the average rpg diff reregistering in at -2.9. 

TAMPA BAY is 18-3  SU vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with the 3.6 rpg diff .TAMPA BAY is 37-11  against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.3 which easily qualifies on this runline offering from the books.

MLB underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (LA ANGELS) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a slugging percentage of .350 or worse over their last 5 games are 38-8 L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the a rpg diff of +3.1. 

Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win -1.5 runline 

Mike Tomlin's team was completely embarrassed last week vs the 49ers by a 30-7 count. Ugly to say the least. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting the Steelers as a group bounce back here in a big way. It must be noted that Tomlin is  8-1 SU  when his side needs to even up their record. Tomlin is also   14-4-4 ATS as a home dog in his career as Steelers coach. . I know Cleveland had a big victory last week vs Cincinnati , but it the recent past this has not been a good omen for this group as they are  1-9 ATS L/10 when coming off a SUATS victory.  

CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival .

NFL Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Pittsburgh ahs won and covered the L/2 meetings at home between these sides.PITTSBURGH is 28-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992 in Pittsburgh. 

Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover

OAKLAND is 13-0 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse since 1997 like San Diegos starter Martinez who currently owns a 1.935 WHIP on the season overall. 

SAN DIEGO is 31-42  against the money line in road games this season.

Oakland is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games and Im betting they keep it close today or pull of the ML underdog upset. The safest high probability bet at the most viable price is to take the run-line. 

Play on the As to cover +1.5 on the runline 

There might have been to much hype surrounding the Bears in game 1 of the season against a Green Bay Packers side that has now beaten them in 9 straight and 24 of the L/27 meetings. Yes, the Bears looked bad in their first game of the season, but I still believe they will be an improved team, despite not necessarily being a play off contender. Here today against the Bucs Im betting they give their backers something to feel good about, as QB  Fields and new acquisition DJ Moore should up their games, after that previous embarrassing effort.  Meanwhile, their opposition, the Bucs might even be a worse of than the bad news Bears, as in game 1 of the season the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play while the defense allowed 5.9 YPP. The Bucs still managed to win because of a 3-0 turnover margin, but they looked horrendous in the victory, and are being over rated while their opponents the Bears todays  opponent might be under rated in this matchup. Whatever, the case I like the points here and Im recommending we go on the take the lesser of two evils. 

TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 99-171 since 1983 for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

Bengals star QB is off a ugly game  week 1 performance vs Cleveland, where he registered a unfamiliar 52.2 passer rating. You can now bet the top gun quarterback will be primed for a big bounce back this week against the Baltimore Ravens.  Bengals QB Burrow is 13-1 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opposition coming off a SU/ATS win like the Ravens.CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS  after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons at home.  Rinse and repeat. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover

Colts QB Richardson was  overall  impressive in his first NFL start. He   ran for a score but also completed a 39-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. He passed for 223 yards, completed 24 of 37 attempts and looks to be very poised under center and must be respected here in the underdog role. Meanwhile, his QB  opponent Stroud, is a viable young arm, but Richardson looks more polished at this point and from my perspective the Colts are the overall deeper , healthier  and more talented side and I wont be surprised if they win this game straight up. Stroud did not get a TD in first outing and the sledding promises to be less than easy in this tilt. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - sub par team from last season - outgained by their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play are 5-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 in Houston and won their last visit here.

Play on Indianapolis to cover

Ken Wilson’s   Nevada  are a defensively challenged team as is evident by   allowing 552 yards per game ranking them (No. 123 in the country). thats not a good omen heading into this tilt vs an explosive Kansas Jayhawks side, that ranks No.10 in the nation in offense averaging 530 yards per game averaging 41 point per game. With that said, this looks very much to be a  mismatch of mammoth proportions. Note: Kansas is  10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 20 or more  point favorite . 

NEVADA is 0-6 ATS when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at  - 30.2 . 

CFB home team (NEVADA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 8-40 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Kansas to cover

After upsetting Alabama last week the Texas Longhorns are in a huge emotional letdown situation. Also because of this the line is becoming public heavy offering us a great opportunity for a underdog cover vs a Wyoming side that is stable on both sides of the ball  and off a win vs Texas Tech last time out . This is a tough spot for the Longhorns as they have Baylor on board next time out, so their attention may not be fully where they need it to be.

TEXAS is 21-37 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

Longhorns are also  0-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorites  in matchups when they are  off an upset victory as a underdog of 7 or more points. 

Wyoming is 3-0 ATS L/3 meetings in this series.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

The New Mexico Lobos are  0-8 ATS the last eight as a favorite and Im betting their losing run continues today in the battle of instate rivals here today. Lobos, are also 1-7 ATS the last eight games in this series.Last season NM State took a  21-9 win as 7-point chalk at Las Cruces  and I dont believe that the Lobos have made enough changes to get the revenge they want .

New Mexico State to cover

Syracuse Orange have looked impressive in their first two games, but they haven't  faced any top tier opponents, only taking out  a Group of Five opponent and a nonmajor side.Syracuse won last season's meeting with Purdue at home by, 32-29 count, as the teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points , but now Im betting on the home side once again finding a way to come out on top . Dino Barber is a good coach , but this according to my power rankings is bad matchup for his side. Note: the Orange have struggled on the road, winning just five of their last 20 road games. They have also won just three of their L/17 tilts against Big Ten opposition. 

Play on Purdue to cover

Tennessee has lost 10 straight visits to the Swamp and Im betting knocking out that jinx run wont come easily today behind QB Joe Milton who cant seem to find a rhythm. You can bet HC Napier and company will play hard here vs a side, that will finally play a tough opponent after two FCSc cupcakes. Napier is also 3-0 SU/ATS with Florida as an underdog at home. 

CFB home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% onversion rate. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-6 ATS L/31` seasons for  a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Florida to cover

JMU took out Virginia last week 36-35 and must be respected here against Troy getting points. Troys 12 game undefeated run came to a screeching halt in their tilt last week,  in a 42-13 loss to KsState and now they are in jeopardy of a two game losing streak. JMU is 22-8 in conference openers, which includes winning its past eight between 2015 and 2022.This is also JMU's fifth straight conference opener on the road.Last season, JMU rallied back from down 28-3 at App State, scoring 29 unanswered for a thrilling 32-28 win.

Play on James Madison to cover

This asking price for Georgia is just a little bit high according to my projections. In no shape or form am I saying south Carolina will pull of an uspet here, but they should be competitive. It must be noted that The  GameCocks  own a  7-0 ATS record  as the visitors in this series and must be respected in their ability to stay within the number. South Carolina has cashed 4 of their L/5 as road dogs of 15 points or more. 

Smart is 7-19 ATS  as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points as the coach of GEORGIA. Smart is 1-8 ATS  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of GEORGIA

GEORGIA is 3-12 ATS  in home games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.GEORGIA is 6-16 ATS in home games after a 2 game home stand since 1992.

Play on South Carolina to cover

Georgia Southern must not be underestimated getting this may points as they  look to an explosive offensive side that can put points up on the board in a hurry as is evident  by averaging 41.5 PPG in their first two games and wins of the season. It must be noted that Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS in their L/2 vs the Sunbelt and looked lethargic at times vs Washington State in a loss last time out. Whiskey is just 1-7 ATS L/8 when coming off a road loss.  Im not a big Luke Fickell fan and have no problems fading his ability to inspire the Badgers at home in Camp Randall today where the Badgers are just 12-12 ATS L/24 overall.  Last season, the Eagles stunned Nebraska 45-42, another Big Ten opponent, and Im betting they compete here today. 

Play on Georgia southern to cover 

Virginia fell part late falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a very good JMD side last week giving up 12 points in the final quarter to lose 36-35 but Im betting on a  wide awake bounce back effort  here tonight against a Maryland side that they have covered against in their L/4 trips here in the visitors role. It must also be noted that this Virginia football program is 5-0 ATS in road openers off a loss. 

CFB home team (MARYLAND) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a sub par rushing team (100  or less RY/game) are 8-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia to cover

Philadelphia did not look good against New England  this past Sunday, but found a way to win even tough they were out yarded by 131 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost despite of out gaining their opponent, the Tampa bay Bucs by 127 yards. It must ber noted that  Minnesota's' QB Kirk Cousins is 29-9  ATS when his team were defeated the previous week. I know these teams showed diff results on the scoreboard, but I like the way the Vikes lineup here vs a injury riddled Eagles lineup , and they will get my support getting points. Philadelphia is n 0-6 ATS in  their L/6 home openers, 

NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

 "The Lynx are just the second team in league history to make the playoffs after starting 0-6, and must not be under estimated in their ability to compete here tonight against the Connecticut Sun. Collier, Kayla McBride, Aerial Powers, Jessica Shepard and (Dorka) Juhasz, have shown alot of cohesion as the season, has progressed, and despite a few stumbles to end their season are a viable underdog side to back . While I dont believe they can win this game outright, I do believe in them not going out with a whimper at least in game 1.MINNESOTA is 20-6 ATS  after allowing 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons .Reeve is 28-15 ATS   off an upset loss as a road favorite as the coach of MINNESOTA. 

Lynx are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Lynx are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Lynx are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The Rams had a bad season last year, but that was in part due to key injuries including top gun QB M Stafford who is now healthy. Im now betting on a rebound from the Rams, and on the flipside for QB Geno Smith and company to regress after a better than expected season in 2022. Note: The Rams have cashed 5 of their L/6 season openers, while the Seahawks have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 as division home favs of 3 points or more. Rams are also 7-3 ATS L/10 as division road dogs. 

. LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons and have covered their L/2 trips to Seattle.

Play on Rams to cover

Las Vegas’ key offseason move came under center as they replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and if he stays healthy he will pay dividends for this Raiders franchise.The Las Vegas Raiders have won their last six matchups with the Denver Broncos and Im betting they wont lose this game easily making getting points a viable investment option. It must also be noted that Denver has failed to cover 6 straight as division home favs. I know there is hype behind the Broncos but until they prove themselves with actual wins instead of just being competitive they are fade material. 

LAS VEGAS is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992

NFL Home favorites (DENVER) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS. since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover

New England’s offense has had an offseason revamp following the hiring of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Im betting they will be more aggressive offensively right out of the gate. The type of football that QB Mac Jones, thrived on in his days with Alabama will be implemented here with key receivers  getting  his attention, including new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots have won four of the past five regular-season meetings and most not be underestimated here today at home. Defensively Im betting on  LB Matt Judon to wreak havoc on the Eagles in an all out physical battle that favors the Pats. 

Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games. 

NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. New England is 12-3 SU L/15 home season openers under Bill Belichick .

The loser of the previous Super Bowl  if they are away in Game One of the campaign are just 2-15 ATS dating back 33 seasons.

Play on New England Pats to cover

The Carolina Panthers are set to start the 2023 season with a rookie quarterback. Bryce Young, but he is a quality player who learns quickly and must not be under estimated in his ability to get out of the gate quickly. Meanwhile, Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder goes for Atlanta. Ridder played  four games and was sacked nine times. In those four games, he only passed for 708 yards and can hardly looked upon as a strong candidate to have a fluid game. My assessment and projections estimate a close game that could easily be decided by FG which gives us an edge with the underdog.

Favorites (ATLANTA) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 6-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate. 

Carolina has covered thier last 2 visits to Atlanta. 

Carolina to cover

Chicago has been highly competitive recently covering 6 of their L/7 and deserve respect here getting points. The Connecticut Sun Im betting sit some players as their play off destiny is secured as the third seed. 

Sky are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Connecticut.

WNBA team (CONNECTICUT) - good free throw shooting team (76-80%) against an average free throw shooting team (71-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 45% better of their shots are 39-77 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

Mystics seem to always bring their A game out when playing the Liberty. . The regular season ends Sunday in New York Im betting will rest key players on a roster that has weathered injuries all summer.

Mystics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and deserve respect here getting this many points.Liberty are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

WNBA Home favorites (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, vs. division opponents are 35-71 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate. 

Mystics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Play on the Washington to cover

Mississippi State in memory of ther late coach Mike Leach put up a huge effort winning a decisive  48-7 decision vs SE Louisiana last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this week, that will likely see regression. It must be noted that Mississippi State smashed the Arizona   by  22 points back  in 2022  (39-17)and now with revenge on board, you can bet this Wildcats side will be primed to play and with them getting points Im betting we have value. 

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 3-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 19-6 L/31 seasons for. a76% conversion rate. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Knights beat the  Northwestern Wildcats last time out  24-7, in a tilt that  saw Rutgers gain just  283 yards of offense which tells me that this team is being over rated here . Meanwhile, the Owls  came from behind to beat a pretty good Akron team last time by allowing the Zips to just 38 yards of offense in the 2nd half. Note:  The Owls program has cashed 6 of their L/7 openers  against opposition that just notched a victory.Schiano is 0-6 ATS  off a win against a conference rival as the coach of RUTGERS.

CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 6-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.2 . 

Play on Temple to cover

Texas almost tripped up Saban and company last season losing a 20-19 heart breaker , but now Alabama will come in here very prepared and ready to make a statement and not be ambushed again vs the Longhorns. It must be noted that Saban vs his  former assistants is 28-2 SU and 4-0 SU/ATS as a host when favored by  18 points or less. Also Texas has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference away tilts and must not be over estimated in their ability to compete in this  SEC road environment. Saban is 19-9 ATS  in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ALABAMA. Best Bet.

Alabama to cover

I know The Broncos lost their first game of the season in ugly fashion, but this this is a  much better team than their performance vs Washington last week, and now Im expecting them to have a huge bounce back effort here on the blue carpet against a over rated UFC football program. I know Central Florida can really light things up, but this Boise side ranked 11th in the nation in D, last season, and are more than capable  of slowing  down their explosive opposition .  Boise State is 21-0 SU  in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one campaigns and Im betting wont easily be defeated here tonight at home. 

UCF is 0-6 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF won 56-6 vs Kent State last week)

BOISE ST is 12-3 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points since 1992.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 26-6 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boise State to cover

The Georgia State Panthers took  a seven point victory over Rhode Island last week but their defense looked atrocious as is evident by giving up 35 points on 520 total yards .  They score enough to come out with a win, but that was nota good look and will be their downfall this week, as I dont believe their offense can be as effective vs this under rated UConn side that gave a good N.Carolina State squad all they could handle in a 24-14 loss. Note: Georgia state have lost 7 of their L/11 at home SU and are not solid favs. 

UConn to cover 

Miami out gained  Texas A&M last season by a 392-264 count but couldnt punch through for a victroy, but this season, in this venue could see them turn the trick in the rematch.   It must be noted that the Aggies program has not faired well in road openers in the recent past in their L/17  as visitors to start their season  have  failed to cover 6 games  as a favorite of 3 or more points.  Miami is also  5-0 SUATS the last five as  a non-conference home dog, and are once again value line underdogs vs a over rated opponent. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.( Miami smashed Miami O last week 38-3)

Miami to cover

I know Colorado had a big game and upset TCU last week, but now Im betting the Buffs   to be in an emotional letdown situation and ripe for an upset of their own. Hey I know Nebraska just cant get over the hump no matter who their coach is , but HC Rhule deserves respect in the underdog role on the road where his teams are 9-3 ATS . ( Lost ot Minnesota 13-10 last week in a grinding affair, andIm betting they can turn this game into trench warfare again)

COLORADO is 0-7 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO is 9-22 ATS  in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.

CFB road team (NEBRASKA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 53-22 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NEBRASKA is 7-3 straight up against COLORADO since 1992 here on the road. 

Play on Nebraska to cover

North Carolina State took a  10-point win at under rated  UConn and must be respected here at home as dogs.It must be noted that HC  Dave Doeren is  4-1 ATS at home in abattle of  of undefeated sides, and 12-0 SU  in home openers. I know the Irish mashed a couple of over rated  patsies ( Navy, Tenn State) but this is whole diff type of team they face here this afternoon . 

Hartman has struggled against the Wolfpack's 3-3-5 defense over the years- Im betting on a Rince and repeat situation. 

NOTRE DAME is 2-11 ATS  in road games after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 21-52 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NC State to cover

KC has not lost a season opener since 2014 and Im betting they nab a victory again against what many believe is a top tier Lions squad. Truth is the Lions still have not proved anything and here against a top tier squad could find the sledding tough. I know Kelce may not play Thursday night and  Jones who is holding out for a new contract may also not be there, but this Chiefs team is deep and deserves respect as less than TD home fav on opening night. Note: Motowns D allowed 6.2 yard per play last year) 

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

KC HC Andy Reid is  6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division opposition with every win coming  by double-digits.

Play on KC Chiefs to win /cover

The Diamondbacks (71-68) after a loss yesterday are in what you might call as deseration mode even. they are currently one game behind the Cincinnati Reds in the battle for the National League's third wild-card spot. The Miami Marlins are a half-game ahead of Arizona. They need to win and will be very motivated. 

Rockies starter Flexen owns a ugly 1-6 record along with a bloated 7,83 ERA on the season and is fade material here according to my power rankings. Flexen is 1-2 with a 5.94 ERA in seven starts since joining the Rockies. Flexen is 1-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four career starts against Arizona. Advantage Arizona on the runline. 

Arizonas starter Davies limited the Baltimore Orioles to one run and four hits over six innings in a 4-2 win on Friday and has momentum entering this tilt. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 56-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.8  which qualifies on this run-line offering. 

Play on Arizona to win -1.5 runline

Duke is 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season home openers  and  last season were 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in HC Mike Elko’s  first season at the helm of the Blue Devils football program. Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers vaunted D, has to replace four NFL draft picks giving  Dukes Junior quarterback Riley Leonard a chance at a big night as he looks to pad a  33 touchdown and a  3,600 yards offensive performance  last season. This is a opportunity to make a statement here for Elko and his q8 returning starters. With that said,  Im on this Blue Devils group as Im betting they  will be primed to really come out here and play hard tonight in a never say die take no prisoners gridiron battle.DUKE is 8-0 ATS  in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Duke to cover

The Rockies have lost  11 of their last 14 games and look completely asleep at the proverbial wheel. The Rockies have lost each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record. Meanwhile,  Diamondbacks are battling with the Marlins, Giants, and Reds for the last wild card spot and need wins badly and  Im betting will play like it here today. Merrill Kelly gets the ball, and he is 10-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 147 strikeouts this season and gives the Dbacks the edge on the hill. KELLY is 10-1  against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.4. 

COLORADO is 3-34  against the money line as an underdog of +200 or more this season with a average rpg diff of +3.6 which easily qualifies on this run-line offering.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked 1 or more hitters each of his last 2 outings are 76-13 L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average rpg diff  of +2.5 going on the board.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 45-4 L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with the average run per game diff clicking in at +2.1 which qualifies on this runline offering.

Play on Dbacks -1.5 to cover on the runline 

Florida State has 18 returning starters off a 10 win campaign, while their opponents the LSU Tigers were hit hard by the NFL draft losing 10 starters from last seasons group. It must also be noted that the Tigers have been virtual pussy cats on the road failing to cover 6 of their L/8 overall while the Seminoles are 9-0-2 ATS in their L/11 games played in Orlando and are 7-1 SU L/8 games in this series and according to my power rankings matchup well here vs the young men from the Bayou. LSU has lost its last 3 season openers and I would not be surprised if they register another one here as the Seminoles vaunted ground game does enough to get through a tough Tigers run D. 

Play on Florida State to cover

OSU finished last season on a  7-0 ATS run and enter this season with momentum while their opponents San Jose State finished their campaign on an  exact polar opposite 0-7 ATS run and than lost their opener this season to USC by a 56-28 count. SJU is just 1-26 SU in their L/27 line road games vs PAC 12 opponents and look to once again be cannon fodder in this tilt vs what is a far superior side.

OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +19.9.

Play on Oregon State to cover  

This year will mark the fourth straight  season that Northwestern begins against a Big Ten opponent, having beaten Nebraska last year, fallen to Michigan State in 2021 and crushing  Maryland in 2020. Northwestern is on a two-game winning streak against Rutgers dating back to 2018.  Rutgers has averaged only 22 points per game vs. NU in 3 all time events, and Im betting they have problems scoring again in a game I have pegged to be a 1 score event giving us value with the TD + underdog line. 

Schiano is 3-11 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of RUTGERS.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 59-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northwestern to cover

 UCLA no longer has QB Dorian Thomas-Robinson  but with 16  starters returning for the Bruins they should be just fine. With  former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo in the fold  for the Bruins some new looks could really make a the Bruins a dark-horse candidate this both in the PAc 12 and and the nation. Kelly has cashed his last 3 home openers and will once again be primed to juice an opponent, especially one traveling from east to west . Note: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover 8 of their L/12 as DD dogs.  New CC HC Tim Beck has his hands full, in a game that Im betting ends in a conclusive UCLA win and cover

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 94-45 ATS L/31 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover

NC Coach Mack Brown  is 26-4 SU in season openers, including winning 18 of his L/19. and with 18 starters back and top tier QB at the helm in Drake Maye and you have  situation where the  Heels are being under rated vs the over hyped  Heisman hopeful QB Caleb Williams and company of South Carolina . With revenge on board for a ugly 38-21 loss back in 2021 , Mack will be primed to have his  team ready out of the gate again this season. Note: The Gamecocks have lost 5 of their L/6 vs the ACC, while the Heels are a perfect 5-0 vs sides from the SEC as fav of 4 points or less like they are here today. 

North Carolina to cover

Akron lost alot of close games last season, but now with improved running game, and the talented DJ Irons back at QB, they could find a way to make the gap small enough to ramp up more wins and more importantly covers and be even  more competitive from a W/L perspective. 

Temple is still not back to their top programs they had  12 years ago, and Im projecting no more than a 4 wins this season and in their current form do not look capable of covering this line as favs. 

 CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in non-conference games are 49-20 L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors, 

Play on Akron to cover

NIU went 3-9 last season, but five of the losses were by eight points or fewer. The 2021 team went 7-2 in games decided by eight points or less. Last year an array of injuries really gutted them and 2021 they were healthy. This program is built to be tough as nails, and out of the gate they are fairly healthy and deserve respect here as underdogs. The dogs are not  a deep team but the starting 22 are projected to be gridiron  take no prisoners war lords. Im betting Boston College has their hands full here today. 

N ILLINOIS is 53-26 ATS  as a road underdog since 1992. Hammock is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of N ILLINOIS.

CFB road team vs. the money line (N ILLINOIS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 26-10 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to over 

The Mystics seem to always bring their A game in against top tier opponents like the Aces .

WASHINGTON is 12-2 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Vegas is off an extended road trip and make take time to get acclimated to home cooking again. LAS VEGAS is 2-9 ATS   after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons

WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or more  of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

LAS VEGAS is 6-15 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Vegas has failed cover 5 straight games.

Play on Washington to cover

Phoenix ranks last in the league, winning just nine of their 35 games this season, and are on a six-game losing streak and thanks to those numbers are now being under rated by the linesmakers here. I cannot see the Sun being very motivated here and that alone may be the difference maker. 

White is 2-10 ATS  in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1997.

PHOENIX is 10-2 ATS  in road games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a sub par team (-7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 70 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-27 L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mercury to cover