New Orleans at one point  in the early part of the season lost 6 straight games, and then won three straight. Two of those wins were vs struggling  Phoenix and Chicago,  so Im not going to give them a great deal of accolades. The final  win came against a Raptors team that looked exhausted and did not look themselves. Than last time out the Pelicans lost again, and did not look cohesive vs the Minnesota Wolves on the road. I can't put my finger on it but HC Gentry lead squad just does not seem to make all the moving parts   work in coordination, with Defence, being their key problem point as they rank 27th in the league allowing an average of 115.8 ppg. I know tonights opponent the New York Knicks will not inspire bettors, but their desperate for a win and or  to even stay competitive after 3 straight DD losses, and will be hell bent on not being embarrassed again. The Pelicans in their current form just do not seem like 10 points plus chalk, not even against a struggling Knicks team. With that said, Ill take the points with the lesser of two evils.

Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS is 2-12 ATS  in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season.

NBA team (NEW YORK) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102  or more PPG), after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more are 49-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

Two teams vying for supremacy on the Eastern Conference go head to head tonight as the Toronto Raptors visit the Boston Celtics tonight.Toronto started their campaign 12-1 but have suffered back to back losses at home to the Pelicans and Pistons and are just 3-2 on the road . Truth is the Raptors did not pace themselves out of the gate, and could easily be in pause mode, as they recuperate from exerting to much energy. Meanwhile, Boston has not always looked consistent in the early going this season, but are still a fine team, especially in the defensive end of the court where they rank 2nd in the league allowing just 101.9 ppg. Tonight Im betting their D, and home court advantage will be the difference maker in what Im also betting will be a Celtics win and cover. 

Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 4-22 ATS  L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more 61-11 SU L/5 season for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Celtics 

The Philadelphia 76ers just do not look cohesive of late, and now with big ego Jimmy Butler in the lineup after a trade with Minnesota might still have problems going forward. Yes, I know how talented Butler is, (all you have to do is ask him) but there are reasons why he didn't want to be in Minnesota and its not because of the cold weather .In my humble opinion Butler at this point in his career is not a team player, and Im betting at least for the foreseeable future will be a negative influence on Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid and how well this team plays as a group especially in key situations. Time will tell if Im wrong, but for tonight Im betting a Jazz team off an embarrassing effort last time out vs Dallas, shooting just  31.3 percent from the field and 17 percent from 3-point range, will be primed for a bounce back redemption filled effort vs a  over rated  76ers team .

***It must be noted that Utah owns a +0.11 SRS while, Philadelphai has -0.58 SRS. ( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average)

UTAH is 43-27 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. are just 11-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Houston gets to many accolades from the media , and are just not living up to expectations as this season progresses, something that has been a common theme with them over the last few seasons. They have a load of talent but game preparation and inconsistency remains a problem, as does a defence that has allowed an 500+ypg  and has also given up  2,049 yards in its last four games including 44 ppg. Meanwhile, Tulane has quietly  gotten better as this season, has progressed behind a hard nosed defence and an offence that has steadily improved over their L/4 trips to the gridiron. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons and has failed to cover 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. 

Tulane is 6-1 ATS L/7 as a 10 point or less underdog. 

CFB  team (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

Milwaukee has played some great ball this season , but lately have alternated wins and losses during their L/6 games, and are of a win last time out. They are getting alot of accolades, but this season is still early and my own rankings and stats analysis show some regression. Meanwhile, Memphis enters this game a little banged up , but its mostly depth players and as long as Conley remains healthy and on the court the other Grizzlies as a whole can feed of his energy. From a matchup perspective Memphis is not an easy team to play against, as they sport the leagues best defence behind the leagues slowest pace and Im betting they can cause problems for a team like the Bucks that needs to run a free flowing system to play at an optimal level. With that said, Im betting we have value taking points here with the visitors.

Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bucks are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.

MILWAUKEE is 18-45 ATS L/63 as a favorite of 10 or more points. HC Budenholzer is 3-13 ATS  in home games after 3 consecutive non-conference games in all games he has coached.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 3-24 ATSL/5 seasons for a go against 85% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

My own power ranking suggest that this line is value based with the underdog. The Cornhuskers have dropped seven straight games against Big East opponents.


Pirates are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
Pirates are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games..Cornhuskers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big East.

HC Willard is 13-4 ATS after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less as the coach of SETON HALL which happened last time out.Miles is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite as the coach of NEBRASKA.

Play on Seton Hall to cover

Golden State played last night in LA vs the Clippers . That  game went into to OT, as they lost by a 121-116 count. Now on tired legs as they prepare to play on back to back nights and with the added inconvenience of being without the often injured Curry in the lineup the Warriors will not be as ferocious as usual, and could easily be over looking this lower level opponent. When your a team like the Warriors that has had so much successes in this league of late, its easy to become a little bit to comfortable . Meanwhile, Im betting on rising star Trae Young to come out flying and inspired tonight in an attempt to upend the champs. Im really expecting two different energy levels here in this spot and getting  points to eventually be golden. 

NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less  reb/game) are 16-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

The Nuggets are suddenly struggling  for the first time this season and despite of being  (9-4) have lost three straight  and two in a row at home and has had trouble with energy levels and consistency of late which culminated in allowing their opposition to hit on 57%+ of their FG last time out. . Meanwhile, Houston showed some life last time out, posting a impressive 115-103 victory over a very deep  Indiana team.  Im betting on the Nuggets issues to continue here tonight and for the Rockets to build off of their last effort. 

HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 4-14 ATS in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Houston has won and covered their L/3 trips to the Mile High City. 

NBA Road teams (HOUSTON) - struggling team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or more on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 30-8 ATS L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

My own poer rankings make NC Greensboro 9.5 point chalk here thus giving us value on this line. 

UNC-WILMINGTON is 0-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.UNC-GREENSBORO is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with the average victory coming by 10.5 ppg. 

CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UNC-WILMINGTON) - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game are 53-104 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on NC Greensboro to cover 

The Musketeers have started the season 2-0 under first-year head coach Travis Steele. There are some new faces this season, as key guys likeTrevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura,  are gone, but this is considered one of the best recruiting classes ever put on the floor by Xavier, so the Musketeers aren't exactly short on talent and have to be respected here in their own building, Yes even against a Big 10 power house like Wisconsin.

Musketeers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big Ten.Badgers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.

Play on Xavier to cover 

With the negative influence of Jimmy Butler saga gone now after he was traded to the 76ers on the weekend, the Minnesota  Wolves should feel like they now have a second life, and Im betting will be energized and  thrive here tonight vs the Brooklyn Nets. Yes, the Nets  are up-trending, but are on  tired legs as  they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and off a  extremely exhausting and demanding game vs the Warriors last time out. . The Nets are now   in the unenviable position of playing against a pumped up  team that needs desperately to turn their season around after a ugly 0-5 road trip. 

MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS  in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 70-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Im betting the Arkansas Razorbacks  are in a emotional  letdown situation after a OT loss to Texas in their first game of the season.  Despite of this being their home opener it will be hard for the Hogs to have the energy levels needed to cover this fairly big number vs the University of California-Davis Aggies. Im not saying the the Razorbacks 44 home opener winning streak is in jeopardy , but rather that the line is inflated to the point where  there is value taking points with the road dog. 

CAL DAVIS is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasonsCAL DAVIS is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasonsCAL DAVIS is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Cal Davis to cover 

The  Boston Celtics successes  in recent years has been their ability to play top tier  defence, but recently especially on this current road trip they look to be struggling .As a result  the Celtics have lost 3 of their L/4 games and have failed to cover 4 straight games. Meanwhile, Portland their hosts tonight are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and have won 3 straight and 6 of their L/7 behind some solid two way basketball that has result in allowing 3 of their L/7opponents to score 93 points or less. With that said, Im recommending we lay the short lumber here with the Blazers.

 PORTLAND is 35-23 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. HC Stotts is 11-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more as the coach of PORTLAND.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 26-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average point differential clicking in at 12.8 ppg.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 29-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 14.9 ppg. 

Play on Portland to cover 

The Trojans showed how explosive they can be when they took out Robert Morris last time out in a powerful well balanced  83-62 win. The Trojans shot 53.2 from the field and allowed their opposition to convert on a lowly 34.3 % of their their shots. Vandy obviously offers up more talent, but travelling from west to east is never any easy proposition for any team , and it will be a factor in what Im betting will be a road loss for the Commodores. USC has played well against non-Pac-12 opponents covering the spread in 31 of the last 47 and is 7-3 ATS L/10 vs SEC teams. 

VANDERBILT is 1-10 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasonsVANDERBILT is 7-19 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the USC Trojans to cover 

 When you first look at this matchup would might assume that the Magic are the superior side, and deserve to be slight favourites here on the road, because of there better play of late as compared to their struggling counterparts. But according to my power rankings charts, and the Orlandos history of ATS futility I feel we have value on a picket line with the ver hungry home team. I know the Kncisk lost last night to Toronto, but I liked their offensive flow in a 128 -112 loss and feel like it could carry into this game. Note The Magic are 11-23 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Orlando took out the reeling Wizards last time out at home in Central Florida , but are just 3-13 ATS  off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

Since 1989, sub win percent than opponent underdogs off of a win against a team that just played on the road are just 58-97-5 ATS/61-120 SU  in regular season when the final margin of their last game was smaller than the margin going into the fourth quarter. (Orlando)

Orlando HC Clifford is 9-23 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in all games. 

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 5-24 SU L/22 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

The Indiana Pacers currently rank very high on my power ranking charts, while Houston is sinking like a rock, and in their current form look very much like fade material. The Rockets are talented but their seems to be an issue with flow and chemistry right now. Add to that their on tired legs in this spot, after finishing off an extended 5 game road trip that resulted in them losing their last two tilts including one last night in San Antonio . This is actually the Rockets 2nd back to back game scenario in the L/9 days, so Im betting their going to be exhausted. Meanwhile, the Pacers  despite of losing 2 of their L/3 games are a deep team that works at an accelerated pace, and Im betting the Rockets wont be able to handle their speed in their current form.I

NDIANA is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasonsINDIANA is 23-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.D'Antoni is 8-21 ATS in home games in non-conference games as the coach of HOUSTON.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate witht he average point differntial clicking in a 6.4 ppg. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

 CFL Playoffs - Western Semifinals

Im betting the running game of Saskatchewan will  have success on the  ground and pound  away with success vs a over rated Bombers front-seven, opening up the passing option for Shaq Evans and Jordan Williams-Lambert.

SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 5.7 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.SASKATCHEWAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 70 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games .

CFL Favorites (SASKATCHEWAN) - off a home win by 17 points or more, when playing on a Sunday are 32-8 ATS L/22 years for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Saskatchewan  to cover 

The Raiders looked horrendous last week in their loss,  34-3 vs the 49ers last week and  have lost four in a row and are tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL at 1-7. Meanwhile, the Chargers won last week, but looked a little pooched, and won 25-17 vs Seattle last week. Their numbers however, were not overwhelming. It must be noted that the chargers are just  0-10 ATS  as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs  , and 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite off a game as a underdog when they had less than 28 minutes time of possession, which was the case last week.  The Raiders lost on the road to the Chargers earlier this season 26-10 but will be a much tougher out this time around at home. NFL team (OAKLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 42-17 ATS L/35 seasons for a long erm 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Note: NFL  home Teams which are more than 7 point  dogs are actually long term good bets going   192-162-4 ATS . I know its hard to take the Raiders considering their form, but if you can just plug your nose and pull the trigger on this stinker, you can feel confident that we have an edge on the books. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders 

The Hornets have consistently proven their not an easy out , as was the case in their last trip to the hardwood vs the Philadelphia 76ers on the road as they lost a heart breaking 133-132 OT decision. Now with rest they come back out looking to rebound vs a inconsistent Detroit team, that just recently ended a 5 game losing streak with a pair of wins vs lower tier teams  Orlando and Atlanta. Tonight against this run and gun and high energy Charlotte group Im betting this Motown crew is at a disadvantage.

DETROIT is 19-35 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons

NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - poor three point shooting team ( 33% or less ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 23-73 SU lL22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

E.Tenn State is an explosive offensive teams as ws evident against HIWASSEE COLL as they took a 109-44 win. They have enough fire power to hand here with a very good Creighton team.  TENN ST is 7-0 ATS  in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. CREIGHTON is 5-15 ATS  after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on E Tenn st to cover 

Falcons are playing better ball of late , but are just  0-8 ATS in its last eight games against AFC opposition. Also you can not escape the fact that the Browns have a game changing QB at the helm of their offence and looks to be getting more comfortable each time out.   Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 draft pick has started three games and has thrown for 1,768 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's been sacked 22 times but rushed for 91 yards when scrambling. In last week's loss to Kansas City, Mayfield threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield helps his team get us the cover here. ATLANTA is 11-32 ATS  after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games .

Cleveland Browns to cover 

The Bengals are one of the most under rated teams in the NFL, and despite of the Saints getting all the accolades could easily be in a letdown spot after gruelling  back to back games  and wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the LA Rams and in a look ahead situation to the Eagles who are next on the agenda. Bengals are 8-1-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as home underdogs against NFC opponents and look like a viable bet here today. 

NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS L/28 against AFC North division opponents.Cincinnati has covered 3 straight at home in this series and get the nod again taking points. 

The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 at home off a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS L/6 when they are off three consecutive games with a positive DPA.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - mistake-free team (1.25 roles TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25  or less TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 58-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Titans are a methodical team, that is capable of keeping this score close enough to cover the number here vs Tom Brady and company. No, really , you might be laughing right about now, but the Titans have the better D, by 49 ypg, and must not be underestimated as TD underdog at home. The Titans have only been non competitive in one of their games this season, a 21-0 shutout vs Baltimore, but the wins and even the losses have all been 3 points or less including a impressive win vs the defending Super Champs the Philadelphia Eagles. It hard to bet against the Pats, but this is actually a good spot for the Titans. Note: The Titans are 7-0 ATS L/7 when they are at home between two road games. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

CFL Playoffs - Eastern Semifinals

Both of these teams enter this playoff tilt  after  inconsistent seasons.They spilt their two meetings, but my own current updated power rankings suggest the Lions will come out of this with the victory. Look for the Lions to rally around HC Buono who is in his final year of his illustrious career, and get the victory. 

Note: Hamilton enters the Eastern Semi-Final with just one of their key receivers remaining in their lineup from the start of the season — Luke Tasker.

HAMILTON is 1-9 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.BRITISH COLUMBIA is 15-4 ATS L/19  in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points .BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season.

CFB Underdogs or pick (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on a Sunday 105-54 ATS L/22 seasons. 

Play on the BC Lions to cover 

Both California and USC have been inconsistent this season, but the Trojans from a head to head matchup perspective are the superior side according to my power ranking numbers and matchup well vs the Bears. I know Cal has covered 3 straight but they have also been outgunned in 3 of their L/4 overall. With both teams needing a win to get a Bowl invite, Im betting both will be primed to play but home field advantage will be the difference maker. 

The USC  Trojans  have owned this series vs California in the past and are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home and are 16-1 against. the Bears in their last 17 meetings overall . USC has won 14 straight  vs the Bears, and covered the this weak number in each of those tilts. 

CFB team (USC) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on USC to cover 

Houston despite of their talent level are not playing up to expectations, but from a systems  matchup perspective have an edge here even though they are playing in enemy territory but still not far from home. The Rockets were hammered in their last trip to the hardwood, snapping a 3 game winning streak , losing to the Thunder 98-80. . That loss came in their 4th straight road game, and the team as a whole looked pooched. Now  with some rest  and back in Texas the Rockets will  be out looking for redemption, for that last loss  which gives us a motivated team to back. HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS L/9  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Note: I didn't like the way the Spurs looked last time out in a 95-88 loss to Miami. Coach Popovich essentially insulted his group calling them soft. Im not sure that will ignite them if thats truly what he thinks they are. I personally feel that Pops might have something here, as the Spurs don't seem to like to work inside. The Spurs  shot  a ugly 33% in that loss to the Heat, but made 13 of 32 from beyond the arc preferring to do their work from the outside. In what the lines makers think will be a closely contested affair, Ill take what I for at least now perceive to be tougher clutch team ( Rockets)

HOUSTON is 18-8 ATS L/26  as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

The Rockets took three of the four meetings from the Spurs last season.

 Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 75-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Houston to cover 

This is Belmonts first game of the season, and Illinois State did not look all that impressive in their first game taking a 74-66 tilt vs Florida Gulf State. My own projections and early season power ratings suggest that Belmont should be a 7 point fav here thus we have value on a short chalk line.

Yes, their are new faces in the lineup but they have all been recruited to play Rick Byrds system, and Im betting they will do just fine. 

Belmont has won 285 games since 2007 - the most among all NCAA Division I program from the state of Tennessee - including Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Memphis. 

Belmont to cover 

LSU was manhandled by Alabama  last week 29-0 , and are now beat up and downtrodden after that very physical affair and I'm betting they will be in a huge letdown situation here this week on the road vs feisty Arkansas gridiron group. Energy levels will be low for the Tigers  , after their  SEC title hopes and most likely its CFP aspirations were  crushed and Arkansas will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Take the points

Arkansas has covered 4 of the L/5 here as DD home dogs vs LSU and are 8-3 ATS L/11 in this series overall. LSU has failed to cover 4 straight vs .400 or less SEC opposition. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Florida International was smashed last week by instate rivals Florida Atlantic by a 49-14 count, and  will be in a letdown situation , and may have some problems dusting off the brutality of that beating as they go on the road vs a team that played them tough last season (14-7).

UTSA might have a negative record but  are more than capable enough of covering and have had a propensity to keep their home games close as is evident by a -8 point differential this season .UTSA  L/9  home lined games over the last 2 seasons have seen a average 1.1 line differntial UTSA 22.9 OPP 21.8 .Overall UTSA L/20 line games have seen a -3.4 ppg line differntial UTSA 20.1 OPP 23.5.

UTSA to cover 

Auburn (6-3, 3-3)  enters this rivalry game with  Georgia with  a huge chip on their shoulders , and are also  motivated to get revenge for last year's loss to the Bulldogs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium . Head coachGus Malzahn. prior to his recent two game win streak has taken alot of heat from alumni and boosters, but has been golden for  his betting backers  going 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 13-0 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in conference games. Georgia after their huge win vs Kentucky last week, may have problems rising up with as much intensity this week, which gives credence to me backing the road dog here. 

GEORGIA is 8-24 ATS L/32 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB home team (GEORGIA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

Kent according to my power rankings is the superior team here today  vs Cleveland State and my projections make them a 7 point favorite, thus giving us value on this cheaper than expected line. Cleveland looked over matched vs Davidson in their opener, and some glaring weaknesses make them fade material in this spot. 

The incoming class is highlighted by two freshmen in Anthony Roberts and DeAndre Gholston. Roberts is a Highly talented freshman that scored 22.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg at Detroit Henry Ford HS, while Gholston is a wing player that averaged 22.0 ppg and 6.0 rpg at 21st Century Charter.

Play on Kent State 

We have value here with South Alabama as injured QB Evan Orth is expected to play. I expect the Warhawks despite of leading the West, wanting revenge for a loss in this series last season, could easily still be caught looking ahead to bigger fish with Louisiana and Arkansas State up next. The Warhawks weakness has been their pass defence, and could easily get torched by Orth this week who has a 65% passer conversion rate. 

Play on South Alabama to cover 

Kentucky was demolished last week by Georgia 34-17 and enter this road game against up trending Tennessee in a emotional letdown scenario. Believe it or not its not a good bounce back opportunity for the Wildcats as they are just 4-34 all time in this series and have lost their L/13 trips here. In Kentuckys last 4 trips to the gridiron they have averaged just 15 ppg and could easily find themselves up ended by a Volunteers side that upset Auburn as a road dog and lost by just a FG to South Carolina as road pups. Im betting that if Snell and company can  muster up enough energy to get the win here it won't come easily making Tennessee a viable home dog. 

Note: Kentucky has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 as favorites.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Gophers’ have played their best football at home this season as evident by their 4-1  home record  as opposed to 0-4 on the road this campaign.The Gophers biggest problems have come on defence but HC  P.J. Fleck fired his defensive coordinator and Im expecting things to turnaround in that department. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers after 3 hard fought battles against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa may come into this game pooched and over looking their lower trending opponent. Considering the Gophers are 8-1 ATS as  double-digit home dog Im expecting that taking the points proves golden.  Note: Purdues last 12 games played on turf has seen a 0.6 ppg average differential. 

Take the points with Minnesota to cover 

Old Dominion upset VTech earlier this seasons, and despite of stumbling since than are an underrated team, and have a Wide receiver  inTravis Fulgham,  that has been added to the watch list for the Biletnikoff Award last week and is a future NFL draft pick, and is going to be a key weapon here today against North Texas as the arm of  Blake LaRussa gets a work out. Meanwhile, on D, Old Dominion defensive end Oshane Ximines ( 14.5 tackles and 8.5 sacks) will make the North Texas offensive line work hard for room. Surprise surprise, Old Dominion gets us the cover. 

 NORTH TEXAS is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 4-18 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

West Virginia  is off a huge emotional win vs the Texas Longhorns last week and  will be pooched and most probably hungover in more ways than one vs struggling  TCU. I know  the Froggies  Coach Gary Patterson’s has seen his talented up inconsistent team shoot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions this season, but this is a prime opportunity to get just a little bit of redemption so I expect the Horned Frogs to be sky high for this game, and will play loose as they have nothing to lose by not doing so here on the road .  TCU under Gary Patterson is 12-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 6-0 ATS from Game Ten out. West Virginia is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after playing Texas. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 13-4 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB team (TCU) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-10 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU to cover 

The Fresno State Bulldogs  are an explosive team that look to be on a mission as they have won 18 of their L/23 games and are a bankroll expanding  19-3 ATS in all games L/21 lines games , including 13-1 ATS in conference games and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road . Meanwhile, despite of all the accolades Boise State has gotten from the media, they are no longer a blue carpet  dominant team, and have only covered 1 of their 7 vs visiting Mountain West teams with a .700 or better record. The Broncos also are not playing all that well, and look to be at a disadvantage cs aside that is out gaining their opposition by an average of 122 ypg since early September.Fresno State is 14-0 ATS in its last fourteen games versus Mountain West Conference opposition with a .500 record or better and get the nod again this Friday night behind a D, that has allowed a total of 36 points in conference games this season.

Play on Fresno State to cover 

SF clobbered Cal Davis in their first game of the season 76-42 , but this team is not as bad as that score might indicate and more than capable of bouncing back here in this spot vs a team that is not deep and heavily depends on the big three of  Pineiro, Wright, and Carter III to do most of the heavy lifting. UC Davis will Im betting limit these three tonight on their way to cover. 

 DAVIS is 8-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons andis 6-0 ATS  after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CAL DAVIS) - good 3 point shooting team from last season - made 37% for more  of their attempts are 128-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on UC Davis 

LATE STEAM VETERANS CLASSIC - Alumni Hall - Annapolis, MD
The Navy Midshipmen looked horrible last time out, shooting just 25% from the Field and scoring 44 points. This team looks bad and needs to be faded until further notice. Note: Navy had problems taking quality shots last season and ranked a ugly 222nd in the nation effective FG%. 

Projected scrore Maryland 77 Navy 58

Maryland to cover

After defeating Southeastern, 94-63, in the season opener, the champions of the Southern Conference from UNCG are viable challengers vs LSU tonight and are good investment options getting points.The Spartans are bonfied winners and took 27 games last year  and have won  52 over the last two seasons for Wes Miller in his eighth season as the head coach at UNCG. Last year’s team took Gonzaga to the wire before falling, 68-64, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. 

LSU is 9-21 ATS l/30  as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points .

Take he points with NC Greensboro to cover 

My estimations/projections make this weak line as I have Jacksonville State as 1.5 point fav instead of the linesmkaers 7 being offered. 

CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAMFORD) - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game are 101-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Samford to cover

 Washington has quite honestly looked horrendous this season, with five of their defeats coming  by double-digits, Washington is allowing 120.5 points per game and has already allowed at least 134 points three times. Just nasty numbers, and until they can get this ship righted look very much to be fade material, even against a young inconsistent Orlando group. The Magic are still trying tolearn to win, and have shown some signs of waking up of late and have won 2 of their L/3, and despite of a loss last time to Detroit as they still shot 46 percent but were some how outscored 25-16 in the fourth when they shot 5 of 16 and committed nine turnovers.  These I consider to be growing pains for a team like the Magic and their more than capable of turning things around and getting us a cover here at home tonight.WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS   when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and just 20-38 ATS  as a favourite over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

The 76ers are playing their best basketball at home, and have won all 6 tilts as hosts this season, and once again look like strong candidates to get the job done again vs Charlotte and more importantly cover the number. I know the Hornets played the 76ers tough the first time they met this season, losing by a 105-103 count, but Im expecting after reassessing their opponents   a wider margin of victory this time around, for the home side ,even though Charlotte is exuding confidence and saying they feel they can hang with the Sixers. 

PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and is 17-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff coming in at 10.9 ppg. CHARLOTTE is 13-25 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with an average point diff of 6.4 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with he average point diff clicking in at 9.5 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Bowling Green according to my projections is only  a 14.5 dog, here thus giving us value on this bloated line. 

Morehead does not matchup well vs UConn, and have a recent history of down road efforts in the early part of the season.MOREHEAD ST is 0-6 ATS in road games in November games over the last 3 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 17 ppg. 

UConn HC Hurley is 19-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in all games he has coached. 

Play on the UConn to cover

The LA Lakers  and their super star LeBron James will  primed  to up their game,  after being embarrassed last time out  vs the Toronto Raptors at home getting blasted by DDs. James is the kind of big ego super star who hates to be beat, and Im betting he will be energized and ready to make a statement here tonight vs a struggling Minnesota team that has lost all 6 of their road games this season and on tired legs as they play their 4th  away game in less than a week. Note: The Timberwolves have lost 20 of their L/21 as road dogs SU, with the average  score diff clicking in at 11 ppg. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

  Northern Illinois just clinched a bowl berth with last week’s 36-26 victory vs Akron  and look ripe to be in a letdown situation this week vs an explosive Toledo team that has averaged 41 ppg this season. The sled dogs own a tremendous defence, but the Rockets can score against the best of teams, which is going to be a problem for the home team tonight as they have only been able to muster 19.2 ppg on the season, behind an offense that can only be described as methodical and inconsistent. Toledo has won the 2 most recent meetings in this series, and are my choice to cover here tonight. The visitor in this series has only failed to cover one of the L/7 confrontations. Toledo is also 10-2 ATS L/12 weekday games.

(Weather conditions during the day 40F, and 28 at night, some wind gusts but nothing series, so no advantage here for N.Illinois as they hoped for inclement weather that would slow down the Toledo attack)

TOLEDO is 22-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened last time out in a 45-13 win vs Ball State. 

CFB Road underdogs (TOLEDO) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are a long term good bet as they are 124-66 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Toledo to cover 

Steve Clifford called this young talented Orlando group out 3 games ago after they got smashed by the Clippers losing by 25 points at home. Since that embarrassment they have bounced back with two straight wins  shooting a combined  47.7%  vs the  San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers . I really like the energy this team has right now, and feel they have an edge in a tilt vs a Detroit Pistons team still trying to find an identity under new HC Casey. Detroit is also in major funk as is evident by their current five-game losing streak,  behind some dismal shooting which clicks in at a lowly 40.5 percent, 25.3 percent on 3-pointers while averaging 105.4 points. We have two teams playing at the proverbial  opposite end of the performance spectrum , and taking the points with the  up trending MAGIC is my recommendation. 

Detroit has failed to cover 19 of their L/25 on the road with a +3 to -3 line. Orlando has won 4 straight at home in this series and are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall meetings.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

HC Pasternack’s in his  first season at USC Santa Barbara turned this team around in a big way, going from 6-22 in 2017 to 23-9 last season, a minor miracle.  But with 4 of 5 starters gone I'm betting things wont be as smooth this season. Yes key starter guard Max Heidegger is back but his supporting cast is not on his level, and well coached teams like the Pokes will be to center on him, which slow the Gauchos attack down. Meanwhile, Wyoming an explosive uptempo team behind  senior guard Justin. James  who was a First Team All-Mountain West selection last season averaging 18.9 points per game to be to much for the visitors to handle  as this game progresses. 

Wyoming has won three-straight games in the series and is 3-0 all-time against UCSB in Laramie.

CBBUnderdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UC-SANTA BARBARA) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Note: Both of these teams travelled in preseason.   Kentucky went to the Bahamas, Duke went to Canada. Overall Kentucky played the better teams and should be battle tested, while the Blue Devils will not be after playing lower tier Canuck hoops teams.

Both Kentucky and Duke are full of 5 star recruits. But what sets these teams apart here at the beginning of this season  is not the talent base, but  it  the experience level, where Kentucky holds the edge. The Cats will have two starters in the lineup from last season, while Duke has 4 new top tier kids in the lineup that will likely bolt to the NBA after this season including RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson. I'm betting Duke will take some time to jell, while Kentucky will find chemistry early. 

Kentucky to cover 

The Nets have won 2 of their L/3 and are an up trending team, according to my power rankings. They have been getting more cohesive because the team is beginning to jell and their chemistry stabilizing because they have used the same starting five -- LeVert, Russell, Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen and  Jared Dudley ,in each of their first 10 games. Im betting their abilities as a unit will be to much for the Suns to handle tonight ,as it was for the 76ers in their last game.( Brooklyn beat Philly on Sunday night 122-97 as dogs). BROOKLYN is 9-1 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. I know the Suns snapped a 7 game losing streak last time out, but are just 0-4 ATS L/4 in their followup. 

Note: Brooklyn has struggled with their D, at times this season, but Phoenix is not the kind of team that can take advantage of this as is evident by a 4-17 L/21 ATS mark vs struggling Defences, 106 or more point per game. 

BROOKLYN is 20-6 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 seasons.

Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a  81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

Western Michigan and Detroit both have just 1 starter back each, but when evaluating over all talent and placing a preseason power ranking, I feel we have some value with the visiting DD underdog. So we are on take with the jesuits. 

CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DETROIT) - poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of 45% or worse, in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate.

Play on Detroit Mercy to cover 

Indiana States Jordan Barnes the best player on the court for either of these teams tonight averaged 3.7 3-pointers per game last season to rank fourth in the nation and tops in the MVC Im betting his ability to stop and pop from downtown gives tIndiana State the edge here tonight vs a Ball State side that is 0-5 ATS L/5 overall dating back to last season. 

Cardinals are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.Sycamores are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Mid-America.Sycamores are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Ball St..Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Play on Indiana State to cover 

Toronto despite of being offensively explosive and on a current 3 game winning streak , bump into a tough scheduling situation on the road tonight, as they are on tired legs after playing in the LA last night vs the Lakers, and with this being their 3rd game in 4nights could find the sledding tough as this game progresses in the thin air of Salt Lake City. Add to that key two way stalwart Kawhi Leonard remains less than 100%  with a a ankle injury . Meanwhile, Utah despite of a current 3 game losing streak, are still a hard out behind a  physical brand of hoops that matches up well vs the Raptors style of play. I know the Utah is 0-3 at home so far the campaign and their-usually sound D, has shown some early season inconsistencies, but hey this is great spot for them to come out of their current funk, and get rolling in the right direction. With that said, Im betting on Utah playing hard tonight and getting us the cover. 

UTAH is 27-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 21-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate .

NBA Favorites (TORONTO) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43% orless on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are just 6-24 ATS for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Boston (6-3) enters this Mile High City game off a  loss that snapped a 4 game win streak, last time out vs Indiana on Saturday night, in a hard fought physical affair.  The Celtics will of course now be primed for a bounce back. But like Mick Jagger and his Rolling Stones like to say  " You Don;t Always get What you Want". The Celtics are a fine team that bases their successes and failures on playing very good two way hoops, and nothing will change tonight vs a team playing with similar mind set . Meanwhile, their opponents the (8-1, 5-0 Home) Denver Nuggets are also a team that is now sold on playing strong defence and being aggressive offensively. Right now both team are playing similar basketball, with the difference maker Im betting coming via the Nuggets strong home court advantage and the Nuggets up-trending  ability to guard against the the Downtown Trey. Note:Denver's 3-point defense was last in the league in 2017-18 but has improved significantly in that area in the first nine games of this season. Boston takes 37.3 shots from 3-point range, third in the NBA, and has launched a total of 101 in it last two games. Boston is a fine team, and must be respected ,but for tonight, they go on my temporary fade list. 

DENVER is 34-17 ATS L/51 in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite .

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 13-41 L/5 seasons for go against  76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average point differential coming by 5.2 ppg. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 90 points or less are 65-8  L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 11.8 ppg.  TEAM 109.7 Opp 97.9

Play on Denver to cover 

I have watched both these teams play this season, and like the vibe of the Knicks  as compared to the inconsistent tone of the  Bulls. That 's an old school and simplistic way of looking at teams , but from past experiences can bring to light  an extremely accurate  perspective on certain types of matchups. Its like letting your sense of smell ,indicate if something stinks or not. I dont mean to be derogatory , as the Bulls have been competitive  , but coach Hoiberg cant  seem to keep this young groups flow going for a full 48 minutes.   My power rankings also agree with my assessments, thus giving the home team NYK the edge in this spot play between two teams that do not inspire bettors. Note from a SRS perspective Chicago ranks 26th at -7.29, while Knicks rank 20th at -3.13. Defensively the Knicks are ranked 10th in the league, which gives them an edge vs a side with the 23rd ranked Off.

SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

 The Knicks have won their L/2 home games as chalk this season vs Atlanta and Brooklyn and are playing another team they matchup well against.

CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a struggling team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 2-23 L/5 seasons for a go against SU 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 6.9 ppg. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Let me start off by saying that the Raptors are a talented disciplined team with or without the often injured Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. So me choosing the Raptors to win this game is not based on on him playing tonight, even though reports out of Toronto say that he practiced yesterday and looked fine, and is scheduled to have tomorrow night off as the Raptors prepare to play back to back games, but should play tonight if he so chooses. With that said, look for the leadership of the Raptors Kyle Lowry who leads the NBA at 11.2 assists per game and who has reached double digits in assists in a career-high seven straight games to be the key difference maker here today, against a ruttlerless, Lakers team that has talent, but no real system . With that said, in game that is essentially a pickem Im betting the Raptors  out work a Lakers  team that despite of resting key players like James  in the later stages of last nights game will still have a tired bench, and at a disadvantage vs a deep team that is dangerous and knows how to win.

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Raptors are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 25-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors..

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Rams fell behind last week vs Packers but showed us all  what they were made of by coming back and winning that game and will now be primed to pull an upset of their own, against what Im betting will be a New Orleans side, in a letdown spot after getting revenge on the Vikings for last years playoff elimination. Despite of  their victory last week they were out yarded 423-260 and looked pooched at some points during that game. From a long term betting perspective  NFL sides that won their L/game by more than a TD l  but were out gained by at least 115 yards are just 50-76-1 ATS for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.Until proven wrong Im betting that New Orleans is a little over rated and the Rams a team that must be considered a Super Bowl contender are a great value play taking points. 

NEW ORLEANS is 19-35 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992

 Note:8-0 NFL teams  like the Rams in Game Nine of the season are 17-2 SU since 1980,  with none of them getting underdog lines. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

The Jets enter this game with revenge on board for a  20-12  loss to the Dolphins in week 2 as a three-point home dog. But  NY lately has been very good to bettors in revenge mode as   they cashed 7 straight ATS on a natural surface when they are playing a divisional opponent that they lost to earlier in the season. To put it bluntly , I also don't trust the Fins as home favs against 90% of the teams in this league, and the way their defence is playing I feel they are fade material in this spot. Note: MIAMI is 2-10 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.The Jets have covered 16 of their L/21 visits to South Florida and get the nod again.

Dolphins are  also a bankroll dumping 0-15 ATS  as a home favorite off a loss when their opponent is playing their second straight road game. The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS L/15 seasons   as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

The Steelers and Ravens have been going in opposite directions since they met Sept. 30 at Heinz Field. The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-14 and asserted themselves as early favorites to win the AFC North.

The Steelers started slowly but they have really picked things up lately, and have won and covered three straight games and lookalike strong underdogs here this Sunday vs a Baltimore team that does not look as stout as they did earlier this season . With the Steelers in revenge mode for the loss they suffered to the Ravens when they played earlier this season, you can bet they will have their engines revel and ready to return the favour here today. Look for the Steelers to make the Baltimore offense one dimensional as they control a running attack that is ranked 24th in the NFL with 96.6 yards per game. On the flip side I expect Big Ben Rothlisberger to take some queues from QB Cam Newton of Carolina who completed 21 of 29 passes for 219 yards with two touchdowns last week in a 36-21 beatdown of the Ravens which Im betting offered up some answers about what could be a regressing secondary. 

The Steelers are 7-0 ATS L/7 as a road dog when they are off three consecutive wins where they coveredThe Steelers are 6-0 ATS L/6 on the road when they are playing a team they lost to as a favorite earlier in the season.The Ravens are 0-9-1 ATS as a home favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they had at least two turnovers. 

NFLeams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. are 14-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Pitt Steelers to cover

BYU plays a methodical conservative brand of football, which was evident in a 7-6 loss to N.Illinois last week, a MAC team that plays a similar type of football. Now this week on the Blue Carpet of Boise State I expect the rip van winkle gridiron crew to be the Mormons approach to this game as they look to slow this tilt down to a snails pace which Im betting will help them stay competitive vs the Broncos.  Note: BYU is 20-2-2 ATS L/24 games as road dogs. While Boise State is 0-6 ATS L/6 at home as favorite of 10 to 14.5 points. BYU has covered 3 of the L/4 meetings here and get the nod again in this spot play. 

Play on BYU to cover 

The Denver Nuggets are playing at a high level at the moment, and look hell bent on getting to the play offs this season, behind a talented group. Their off one days rest but should be very fresh after beating Cleveland last time out as no starter played more than 28 minutes in the game. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the Utah Jazz are a banged up group that is on tired legs as they play on back to back nights  and 3rd game in 4 nights, and their 5th game of the week. Utah is a fine team, but the energy they have exerted over a short period of time Im betting effects their performance tonight. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Neither of these teams is living up to their preseason Billings, but what stands out when Washington hosts Stanford today is  Cards HC David Shaws 13-4 ATS record as a dog, including 5-0 ATS when's is getting 9 or more points. Stanford also owns a 15-1 ATS record as visitors after allowing 40-plus points, which happened last time out. Last season Stanford took out the Huskies at home for their 10 win in the L/14 in this series, and right now the way the Huskies are playing revenge will not be enough to get them the payback they want. 

Stanford is 12-0 SU/ 11-0-1 ATS L/5 seasons coming off a loss as a favorite. ( Last week Stanford lost 41-28 heartbreaker to a very good Washington State team)

STANFORD is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.STANFORD is 19-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 9-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 

The Pelicans  a team on a ugly 4 game losing skid and on  tired legs prepare to play  their third game in four nights and for the fourth game of a five-contest road trip tonight against a Spurs team that has impressed me with their new look, as key cogs Aldridge, DeRozen, continue to play at a high level. Im have alot of respect for Spurs coach Popovich and I'm not a big believer in Pelicans coach Gentry;s  wreck-less take no prisoners run and gun system. With Pelicans Star forward Anthony Davis at less than 100% with various nagging injuries, Im betting against the Pelicans here tonight in the Alamo city. 

Spurs are  30-8 straight up against Pelicans since 1996 in San Antonio. 

San Antonio  to cover 

Alabama is third in rushing offense and fourth in rushing defense. LSU, which has played a tougher schedule so far, is sixth and seventh in those categories. Im not disputing how great a football program that Alabama has , I'm just looking at value associated with this line as compared to how both teams have looked this season, and LSUs big time home advantage from a historical viewpoint. Hey guys don't me wrong its always tough betting against BAMA, but you have to continue to grab the edges when you can and keep your head up no matter what because those edges make for long term profits! The Tides Tagovailoa looks like a once in a generation type QB in his current form, but he's yet to have to consistently take on real world competition like he will today. With hat said, Ill grab the points here with the two TD+ home dog.

LSU is 10-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 8-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

LSU in their L/64 home games dating back 10 seasons have lost only 7 times straight up with only one loss coming by more than 10 points. 

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (LSU) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 24-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 

This is a bad scheduling spot for Miss State as they are off a big win vs Texas A&M last week, and will now be in a letdown spot with a look ahead game against Alabama in their next game. Meanwhile,  LA Tech are no pushovers, and have revenge on board for getting clobbered last year at home by the Rebels. It must be noted that MSU  has failed to cover 16 of their L/21 non-conference of 20 or more fav points while, LA Tech HC  Skip Holtz is   16-3 ATS as a road dog  when coming off an underdog situation like he faced last week at Florida Atlantic and  perfect 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog victory which he achieved in that above mentioned game.LOUISIANA TECH is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Tennessee may not be back to their glory years just yet, but Im betting they will be primed and ready to take their frustrations out on a lower tier Charlotte program that is playing with a backup QB . The Vols won't rest players , and they won't take their foot of the pedal as they need  to continue to improve and show their loyal fans that their on their way back to prominence. Search and destroy mission on Saturdays agenda for the Volunteers. 

CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Projected score: Tennessee  44 Charlotte 9

After being beat up on an embarrassed last week by Clemson, the Seminoles will be primed for a better showing vs another team (NC State) that was smashed by Clemson and has now  lost back-to-back games and dropped out of the Associated Press poll  .First-year Seminoles coach Willie Taggart said Monday he thought some of his players quit and that his staff needed "to find the winners" on the team. That was a punishing statement that was made in the media, and now we will see what his team is made of this week. Im betting these kids stand tall this Saturday and give a reeling NC State team a run for their money. 

Florida State is 10-0 ATS (15.8 ppg) 9-1 SU since Dec 30, 1983 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 42 points , with the lone loss coming by 7 points. FSU is also 16-2 SU off a loss of 20 or points dating back to 1983 and a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS if that team is .700 or above. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons  for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover 

The last time West Virginia played Texas star QB Will Grier left the game with a hand injury and did not make it past the first quarter.  It was bitter sweet occurrence as Texas ended up clinching bowl eligibility in the process on West Virginia's home field. Now payback is on the agenda this week for the Mountaineers .Quote:"This one is one we've been looking forward to for a while," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. "It didn't quite end the way we wanted it to last year, and we haven't forgotten about that." END QUOTE. WVU has won three of the four previous meetings played in Austin, including a 24-20 win in 2016 and get the nod again. 

West Virginia is 7-2 ATS L/9 on the road in Big 12 action as TD or less dogs.

CFB Road underdogs (W VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

We have two teams currently playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with Washington on a current 4 game losing streak, and the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on a 3 game win streak. From a matchup perspective and player to player/system vs system standpoint the Thunder also have the edge and have what every coach loves,  a hard working never say die group. So Im not worried bout them being on tired legs here tonight after playing last night. A recent quote also exhibits the respect the Thunder have for each other which will only add to their current positive chemistry. QUOTE: "I'm fortunate I play with one of the baddest (expletive) in this league," George told the Oklahoman about hiss super star team mate Wetbrook. "Excuse my language, but it's the best way to describe him. Just straight toughest dude out there." END QUOTE.

I can't describe Washingtons current performances with the same admiration, and Im fading them here tonight, and in the near future till they show me they can be more consistent and compete when the going gets tough. 

Look for another key difference maker tonight to come via the Thunders superior Charity stripe shooting.The Thunder lead the NBA in free throws attempted per game and made 21 of 29 Thursday night.

WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Wizards are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games overall.Wizards are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Wizards are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Wizards are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.  

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 73-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind. 

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Rockets  enter this game against Brooklyn having lost their five games by an average of 14.4 points and were blown off the court last time in embarrassing DD fashion by Portland 104-85. They also have trailed by at least 20 points for 39:10 after trailing by at least 20 points in a league-low 12:51 last season. Their 1-5 record is indicative of just how little effort they seem to be putting into games , and its not because of James Hardens absence. But despite of this here I am laying points with them on the road . Call me crazy, but Im expecting the Rockets to wake up long enough tonight to put the hammer down on a Brooklyn Nets team that my power rankings and cross reference player to player and system matchup suggest  favour the Rockets . Note: HC D'Antoni is 24-8 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.D'Antoni is 8-0 ATS  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more as the coach of HOUSTON. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BROOKLYN) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in November games are 2-27 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 93% for bettors. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

Recent wins and covers vs Syracuse, and Duke and a closely contested battle vs Notre Dame have shown me that Pittsburgh is up trending in a hurry and pose a threat to a very good  but over rated Virginia team. Pittsburgh has won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and are live dogs again,  and get my support here in this spot getting points. 

The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and 7-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

VIRGINIA is 14-28 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (PITTSBURGH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Im betting UCF will have their hands full with a very physical Temple team, and their perfect 7-0 record could be in jeopardy. Temples two losses this season came by 10 points to BC and 7 to Buffalo U. My power rankings suggest that UCF should only be a 7 to 8 point favorite here and that we have value with Temple to cover this number.

TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 13-2 ATS  in road games over the last 3 seasonsTEMPLE is 9-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites (UCF) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 47-88 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Temple to cover 

These teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum to begin their seasons. So its obvious from a statistical handicapping  outlook, that one would have to consider the Nuggets the superior side in their current form. The only important question left for me to answer , is whether the Cavs with momentum can cover here at home,  vs a Denver team that looks pooched and barely escaped Chicago with a 108-107 win last night and now paying their 3rd game in 4 nights on tired legs.  The answer , Im betting is the Cavs off their first win of the season last time out and on fresher legs  can and will make a game of this and get us the cover. 

Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

HC Malone is 16-29 ATS off a road win as the coach of DENVER. 

CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Cavs won 136-114 vs Atlanta last time out.

DENVER is 5-15 ATS after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Last week Western Michigan had their 6 game win streak abruptly come to an end, as a frustrated and angry Toledo team off blowing a late lead to Buffalo U the prior week came in with a full head of steam and upset the Broncos. I also believe Western Michigan was not respecting their opponents enough, and the end result was ugly. Now in redemption mode, Im betting the Broncos come out here ready to resume  their previous top tier play vs a Ohio Bobcats team that can score , but that has a lot of defensive deficiencies, despite of garnering some positive D stats vs their last two lowly opponents, Ball St and Bowling Green. I know Ohio destroyed a injury riddled Ball State last week, but the hosts are a much better group and healthier  team than Ball State and will give Ohio more then they can handle. 

I am also not worried who starts under center for Western Michigan  as   both are terrific Qbs.  Note: The Broncos have done well vs struggling secondaries as is evident by  11-2 ATS L/13 record vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game .

Bobcats are 0-3 ATS L/3 in the first of two consecutive road tilts. OHIO U is 2-10 ATS  after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992 and is  2-11 ATS  in road games off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals.W MICHIGAN in their L/26 games  as a home underdog have seen a average point differential of 26.8 to 24.5 favouring the Broncos.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

The Wolves looked strong in a 124-120 win over the Los Angeles Lakers last time out,  as both Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns played well. The trade rumours associated with Butler are something he might be feeding off, instead of it effecting him in a negative way. Tonight Im betting the Wolves, are up to the task on their own home floor of dealing with a  quality Utah side that might be dealing with a little fatigue as they play their 4th straight road game, and 3rd game in 4 nights. 

MINNESOTA is 35-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 3 seasons. Wolves HC Thibodeau is 16-4 ATS after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 7-20 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 20-48 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls own a balanced offence behind a future NFL QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson . The Bulls have averaged  235.0 yards passing and 176.3 on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo leads the MAC in scoring and total defense. I look for them to primed tonight to stop Miami O cold on their own home field and grab a commanding lead in the race for MAC East title. Buffalo also has the motivation of revenge on their sides, as Miami O beat them last season 24-14 at home as 3 point chalk. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

The favorite has won 8 of the L/10 meetings. 

Buffalo to cover 

Charlotte beat Miami in their first meeting this season in Florida, by a 113-112 count a 3.5 point dogs and according to my power rankings and more advanced statistical head to head situations matchup well against the Heat . This is strictly a matchup comparison based on how the Hornets play teams like Miami.  With that said, lets lay the short lumber with the home team.

CHARLOTTE is 12-0 ATS  versus struggling pressure defensive teams - forcing 12  or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Road underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games are 11-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

New HC Drew will coach the winless Cavaliers Tuesday night when the Hawks visit town. The lines makers are leaning on the hapless Cavs to suddenly come to life and  jump off their death beds long enough to win and cover vs a Atlanta team that handily  beat  them by DDs in their first meeting this season by a 133-111 count. Drew might turn this team around eventually , but they are not viable favorites right now and are still fade material until Im proven wrong. You have to remember this was a team without a system last year, under former HC Lue and just played off the energy of LeBron James. Now with no James, a huge albatross hangs over the team, and until they shake those effects off, they are destined to getting punched out on a consistent basis. With their talent base, the Cavs will get going eventually but not just yet as key starter Kevin Love remains on the sidelines with an injury.Cleveland enters the game as one of the league's worst defensive teams with a defensive rating of 120.1 while allowing 118.5 points per game and lost 119 -107 to Indiana last time out. 

CLEVELAND is 1-11 ATS  in home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS  in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Atlanta to cover 

In  game 4 of their season the Orland Magic  shocked the NBA pundits with a defensive gem and win vs the Boston Celtics . But that upset for  Orlando Magic  has seen them playing with a hang over in two straight games which resulted in ulgy DD losses. In  Saturday's loss vs Milwaukee, the Magic shot 32.7 percent (33 of 101) and in their three double-digit losses, they are shooting 33.9 percent (112 of 281) and overall they are shooting 41.2 percent, which is among the bottom feeders in percentages in the league. Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings are in a rhythm and have now won three straight games and must be respected in the underdog role here today in their current form. 

ORLANDO is 5-16 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 9-22 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NBA  team vs the money line (SACRAMENTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-7 SU for a 88% conversion rate dating back 22 seasons. 

NBA Favorites (ORLANDO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

LeBron James  and company enter this game playing inconsistently, one night they look like possible championship contenders and than on others they simply don't as their 2-4 record might indicate.  When James was with the Cavaliers the same type of efforts became common place, as the team did not play a system, and rather just lived and died off the energy of the Great one. Prior to their loss to the Spurs on the road last time out, James had a Triple , double, and has now averaged 27.3 ppg on the season. Tonight Im betting on the super star rebounding and leading his team to victory vs  a side that could easily find themselves distracted by the Jimmy Butler trade rumours. 

Minnesota is 0-4 ATS L/4 vs Western Conference.

NBA team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-6 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 26-3 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

Two undefeated 6-0 teams with new HCs go head to head tonight, but Im betting home court advantage will be the ultimate difference maker as Milwaukee behind Giannis Antetokoumpo and the  chemistry stable group of Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are currently in break neck form. I know the Raptors must be respected behind Kawhi Leonard and talented group, but after watching both teams play, I like the way the Bucks matchup against the Raptors and recommend we go on the take with Milwaukee. A 

TORONTO is 44-71 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins . 

Bucks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 29-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 22-3 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 31-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 2-26 SU for a go against  93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

I was kind of surprised to see the Vikings as a home underdog. I truly believe no matter what Drew Bree's is doing of late, I just don't see the Saints being a pickem on the road from a matchup perspective vs a Minnesota team that  in my opinion has the superior talent and cohesiveness. Winning two games in a row on the road like New Orleans will attempt to do is a difficult thing, and if it were not for the huge horse shoe they have wedged up their proverbial yahoos, they might of lost last week, as the Ravens missed the opportunity to take a game to OT,  when their usually reliable stud kicker missed an extra point at the end of the game. Wow. Any how, here we are , and the lines makers have decided while factoring in the revenge play off angle that the Saints should be a favorite. I disagree and will take a contrarian stance and back the home side to come out of this with a win and cover. The both times the Viking splayed the Saints last year they were able to expose their defensive weaknesses' and don't be surprised if they do it again. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

After a slow start to their campaign the mighty Golden State Warriors have really been a groove and smashed their L/3 opponents by DDs. I know their hosts the Brooklyn Nets are far from being as talented as the visitors, but the scheduling of this tilt does Im betting give them an advantage as the Warriors could be using this game as a rest stop as they prepare to embark  on a exhausting 3 games in four night road excursion right after tonights game starting in Chicago. Right now Steve Kerrs group feel pretty good about themselves, and I doubt they will outright overlook their opponents, but what Im betting they will do, is be in energy reserving mode. One last thing, Steve Kerr has said he happy with the golden crews performance of late, but has some issues with their lack of defensive play, and they could use this tilt to get back into a more pressure oriented defensive mode of hoops which will slow this game down, and in turn give Brooklyn a team that is last in the league in pace to play a speed that suits their style of play , and gives them a much better chance at covering the number.

Warriors are 5-11 ATS L/16 vs the Nets as visitors. 

BROOKLYN is 14-3 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons.Kerr is 13-26 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games are 3-22 ATS L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

Super star QB Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense have the guns to score with the Rams making them viable underdogs this spot vs what is arguably an explosive team the LA Rams. 

GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS  in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 39-23 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. LA RAMS are 4-17 SU and 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 vs NFC North teams.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-15 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover

Bill Carrol has his Seattle Seahawks playing much better than the pundits expected, thanks to a rejuvenated looking defence. On oFfence QB Wilson is also  a top tier money maker for his backers going 11-1-1 ATS in his NFL career taking points against opp coming off consecutive victories like the Lions are.

DETROIT is 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win which was the case a DD victory vs the Miami Dolphins.Detroit is  also 0-13-1 ATS with a .500 or better record when coming off a double-digit win and taking on  an opponent coming off a victory. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 17-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

The defending Super Bowl champions are off a loss and own a 3-4 record on the season but are a good bet to bounce back here this week ,  as defending Super bowl Champs are  100-50 SU and 81-65-4 ATS since 1980 off a SU loss as a favorite. Needless to say the Eagles have to now put the pedal to the metal and right their ship quickly , and Im expecting to do so vs a team that is struggling even more then them the Jacksonville Jaguars who have lost three straight.With RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) likely to miss another game, Im betting QB Bortles won't have the support he needs to be competitive this week on this international stage in London ,England. 

JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons which happened in their 20-7 loss vs the Texans last week.The Jaguars are  also 0-11 /SU ATS when the line is within a touch down of pick and they are off a game as a chalk in which they had less than 280 passing yards and at least two turnovers with he average margin of defeat coming by two TDs.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

San Diego State is a very viable short favorite here vs a Nevada team on tired  jet lagged legs and in a letdown situation after a win at Hawaii last week. I know the Aztecs did not look very awake themselves last week in a victory vs lowly San Jose State ( 16-13) but now I expect the alarm clock will go off early and they will be ready to respond in a big way here vs a side they have dominated of late winning 7 of the L/8 meetings . Note: Nevada is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs .700 or better opposition. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons

The San Diego State Aztecs are 23-0 SU L/23 vs  .500 or less conference opponents since 2014.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEVADA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are just 23-55 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

A lot of pundits are looking at this game as a easy win for the incoming Lakers behind LeBron James and company, especially after the headlines the Great One made by registering  his triple , double last time out. However, Im not in that corner, and believe HC Popovich has the ability  to mold  this team into a system that has made the Spurs one of the best defensive teams in the NBA , and right their current ship quickly. I know that has not been the case so far, but Im a big believer in Popovich and his abilities. With that said, tonight Im betting the Spurs will have success on their own home floor against a side, that does not have any implemented system, other than following the energy of James. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher have failed to win 19 of the L/26 opportunities. 

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

Milwaukee 5-0 on the season behind Giannis Antetounmpo and his explosive offensive side kick Middleton make up one of the  NBA's top tier of young duo of stars . Under new HC Mike Budenholzer this team is finally showing consistency and swagger. You can feel it , the Bucks are for real as long as this duo can stay healthy. The Bucks  lead the league in 3-point conversions  (16.0) and attempts (41.8) per game and are clicking at a 38.3 percent clip, good for ninth in the league. Tonight against a Orland side, allowing an average of 12.6 made 3-pointers on 32.4 attempts, I expect the over powering down town action to continue and for the Bucks to cruise to victory and more importantly a cover. 

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or lesser 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Heat have been plagued by injuries early this season but Im not sure thats been a a bad thing, as from the  rubble of all those  injuries, has emerged some top tier talent as shooting guard Josh Richardson (19.3) has stepped up as Miami's leading scorer as well as  McGruder who is averaging 16.5 points. It might not look like it but this Heat team must still be respected here on their own home floor. With the Blazers on tired legs as they prepare to play their 4 th game in 7 days, Im betting we have value taking a fresher team. Also look for Heat All-Star point guard Goran Dragic to spend a lot of his efforts successfully corralling Blazers star Lillard. 

PORTLAND is 5-17 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 51-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Miami to cover

Both these teams according to my power rankings are fairly evenly matched, with an obligatory 3 to 4 point home court advantage thrown in, we have an edge on the line in what under most circumstances should result in a closely contested affair.This  makes getting points golden in my humble opinion. Look for both teams to continue to struggle defensively and for both sides to center their attack around their perspective young stars,  Chicago's Wendell Carter Jr., the team's first-round pick from Duke, and Atlanta's Trae Young. The difference maker tonight however, Im betting comes on the back of veteran  Zach LaVine, who averages 32.3 points and leads the Bulls in points. Hard fought battle here = taking points. 

ATLANTA is 30-49 ATS L/79 in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% or less ).CHICAGO is 16-4 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

 BC comes into this game on fire having won three straight games, but Im betting their run ends here today vs a Saskatchewan side that has won 4 of their L/5 overall, and that matches up well against the Lions according to my head to head power rankings. Saskatchewan already went into BC and took out the Lions earlier this season 24-21 and smashed BC last year at home by DDs. I know the Lions have revenge on board, but you don't always get what you want as Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones can tell you. 

BRITISH COLUMBIA is 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. 

CFL Home teams vs. the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) - after allowing 275 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 8.1 or more yards/play in their previous game are 31-7 L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Sask Roughriders to cover 

Tulane since they upset and  beat Memphis seem totally deflated. The Wave defence has been particularly bad,  ranking 103rd in total yards allowed with 433.1 yards per game. Meanwhile, despite of failing to notch wins, Tulsa from time to time has looked like a upper echelon side, losing by 1 points to USF, and  played Texas tough losing a by a 28-21 count. These teams just can't seem to get over the hump and both are desperate for wins, but Im betting home field advantage will be the difference maker today. Tulsa is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 meetings here at home in this series and has big time revenge on board for ugly 62-28 loss at Tulane last season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (TULANE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, a struggling  team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 6-36 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Tulsa to cover 

The Tigers (4-3, 0-3 SEC) are the best unranked team in the nation in my humble opinion and are explosive behind the league's No. 3 passing attack with quarterback Drew Lock  the key production manufacturer  and ranks third in the conference as a  passer.Lock's passing total of 1,979 yards ranks behind only Jordan Ta'amu (2,622 yards) of Ole Miss and Alabama's Tua Tagoavailoa (2,066) among SEC's passers.Missouri is coming off a huge 65-33 win over Memphis in which Lock passed for 373 yards and four touchdowns and have momentum entering this tilt vs Kentucky. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky behind future NFL RB Snell, are a run first team, but Im betting they will not be as productive as usual, vs the Tigers  No. 35 ranked  rush defense as they hold opponents to just over 131 yards a game. Kentucky has a fine D, but Missouri can light it up against the best of defenses, while their own D can stop the run and have given up most of their yards through the air, which wont matter vs a Kentucky team that is ranked 127th in the nation in passing yards. 

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 season.

Play on Missouri to cover 

South Florida is a explosive team that averages 35.6 ppg on offence and ranked 11th nationally enters this game undefeated on the season, and look like a viable underdog road option in this spot. I know the football media pundits are heaping  accolades  on the Houston Cougars and their 3rd ranked offence , but Im not sold on them mostly because of their horrendous D, that is ranked a lowly 117th in the nation. Houston upset S.Florida last season as 10 point road dogs, and now payback is at hand. Note: Houston has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 vs a side with conference revenge. 

S.Florida continues to win but have failed to cover two straight and have failed to cover. 4 of their L/5 mostly because of hefty lines, but it must be note that Strong is 12-1 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992. Strong is also 10-1 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 50-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play o South Florida to cover 

Middle Tennessee State is a team that is getting to much respect here based on past season of upper echelon work, but this season, they are being out gained by FBS opposition by 85 yards a game. Meanwhile, Old Dominion finally woke up from their Virginia Tech upset handover last week to notch a upset win on the road vs Western Kentucky. Now that Old Dominion is wide awake Ill back them to being home the cash here as home dogs in this spot vs a over rated Blue raiders side living on past accolades. Note: Middle Tennessee is 0-4 L/4 as a road fav and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall in that role. If the Raiders win today it wont come without Old Dominion putting up a fight. With that said take the points. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPRor more ) after 7+ games are 4-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 85%  go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Penn State has had some ups and downs this season, but this still a very strong team, with a long standing winning football program. Recently Penn State has been dominant in situations like this as they are  11-0 /SU ATS covering by more than 18.82 ppg as a favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover (33-28 uglifest vs Indiana last week) with the smallest margin of victory coming by 10 points and the average margin score differential clicking in at Penn State 41.7 Opp 6.7 ppg. Nine of those 11 games saw their opposition score 7 or less points in a game.  The L/4 games dating back to the 2017 season, have seen Penn State outscore their opposition 218-23. Iowa has a fine team, and rank high in my power rankings, but the Nittany Lions have proven ferocious under the above mentioned perimeters, and are extremely motivated to prove their detractors wrong behind the arm and legs  QB star McSorley who completed 42 of 66 passes for 524 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and has added 31 carries for 101 yards and another score against Iowa in his career. In 2016 when Iowa visited Penn State the huge beatdown took place by a 41-14 count. Can it happen again, maybe maybe not, but key here is we get the cover.  By the way yes Iowa has won 3 straight, conference games in impressive fashion, but Maryland , Minnesota, Indiana are hardly marquee wins so lets not get carried away with the Hawkeyes potential just yet. 

PENN ST is 16-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and is 8-0 ATS  off a road win over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

Both these teams Maryland and Illinois give up lots of yards on the ground and both have proven they can run the ball. Both will use their success on the ground to take advantage of each sides weaknesses. Look for this tilt to be a slow guiding affair with taking  the points ending up being golden.Illinois’ rushing attack has 200-plus yards in six of seven games and Im betting MJ Rivers who is expected to start to get more playing time starting this week  give the Illini a better passing attack which will make them competitive despite of their nasty defence. 

CFB  team (ILLINOIS) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB home team SU (MARYLAND) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8  or more YPR) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

Play on Illinois to cover 

The Jayhawks have not had a to success over the last few years, but they are playing better this season and are by far more competitive despite of their negative won loss record.The Jayhawks are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven contests as double-digit home dogs and look like viable picks here today vs a TCU team that struggles to score and is in an emotional letdown state after being manhandled in a DD loss to Oklahoma last week.. Also with anew offensive cooridnator and guaranteed starter at QB in Peyton Bender I look for the Jayhawks to put some points up on the board and actually cover this game.TCU is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 7-18 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (KANSAS) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 42-20 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover