LSU got the proverbial monkey off their backs last time out against Florida winning SU on the road by a 17-16 count. Now they go against an explosive Auburn side that despite of deserving respect are now a little banged up , and could be without key RB Kerryon Johnson who left his last game with hamstring issues.

With that said LSU HC Bill Orgeron and his Bayou Bengals are now in a position to get redemption for a loss they suffered to Troy State at home in their last game here, if they can upend or stay extremely competitive vs Auburn this week.

I'm betting that the home team will come out fired up and plat like their hair is on fire, and give Auburn a run for their money.

Note:LSU running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams have been hobbled by leg injuries, but both should be ready to go Saturday and both are said to being doing much better.

LSU has won 8 straight meetings in this series , while Auburn  are just 1-10 ATS away with conference revenge. Auburn is also 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road vs a conference side off a ATS win.

CFB home team like LSU - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo is of a grueling 5 OT loss last week vs Western Michigan by a 71-68 count in now will be exhausted and in a huge let down scenario. Now they go against a Northern Illinois program that leads the nation in tackles for a loss and has owned this series in the past winning 9 straight times by an average of 29 ppg. Northern Illinois after a leisurely 24-3 win vs Kent State last week, will be fresh enough to own and cover this game as well.

BUFFALO is 4-17 ATS  L/21 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival and is 2-10 ATS   off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival

.N ILLINOIS is 8-0 ATS  L/8 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and 11-1 ATS  L/112  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and also 6-0 ATS  L/6 after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game .N ILLINOIS is 11-3 ATS  L/`4 in road games. College Football FBS road  chalk are 42-4 SU  this season and 36-8-2 ATS vs sides like Buffalo off a loss.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force will be a letdown situation today against UNLV, after dueling against their rivals Navy last week and losing. It must be noted that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS L/7 after playing against the Midshipman, and UNLV is 2-0 ATS on the road this season, and 4-1 ATS away dating back to last season. I'm betting on the Rebels run game that is averaging 266 ypg to run over a Air force run D, that is allowing 254 ypg.

AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS  L/6 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game.

CFB road teams like UNLV - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game committed or less), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are a long term 136-83 ATS for a 62% conversion rate.

Play on the UNLV Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oh how the mighty have fallen . BYU enters this game ranked 126th in pass efficiency this season   and 124th in time of possession and have been outscored by a 104-37 count in their L/3 losses. Meanwhile, Miss State after a fast start to their campaign were bent over by top tier nationally ranked Auburn and Georgia ,  and are now angry and very much ready for redemption against what is now a struggling Cougars side that cannot move the ball. I know the linesmakers are asking us to lay the lumber in a 3+ TD Spread, but I'm betting we have value here with well rested  chalk off their bye week.

Cougars are 0-7 ATS L/7 vs SEC.

Lay the points with Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Calgary enters this game against Hamilton as the class of the league, after having won their first 7 games and covering 6 of those 7 tilts. The Stamps can beat you in many different ways, and when focused are a lethal force. Tonight against a Hamilton team that has been improving since a horrendous start to their season, and off a upset win vs the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last time out, will now have the full attention of a well coached Stampeders team. I know the Ti-Cats will be primed to compete and pull off another upset, but Calgary has a way of feeding off other teams ramped up home crowds, and use that energy to smack around their hosts. Lay it and play it with the visitors tonight.

Stampeders are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.Tiger-Cats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.Tiger-Cats are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.Tiger-Cats are 4-12-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Stampeders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Hamilton.

CFL team Calgary - after allowing 325 or less total yards in 3 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 120 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-5 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Calgary Stampeders to cover 1 unit reg selection

Carolina (4-1) very much looks like they have returned to the form that got them to the 2015 Super Bowl. QB Cam Newton despite of injury woes and being maligned by the pundits and even me on occasion, has shown a lot of professionalism and to his point in the season proved almost everyone wrong. He had a great game against the Lions last time out, leading his team to a 27-24 road dog win, and looks like he is on a mission.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia (4-1) is off beating up on a Arizona team with numerous issues and injuries by a lopsided 34-7 count. The Eagles have looked very competitive so far, but here in Carolina, I'm betting they are over matched, on a short line , which in my opinion makes for a viable wagering opportunity backing the host side. There is also extra motivation for the Panthers, as they look for redemption for a embarrassing DD home loss to the Saints the last time they played in front of their own fans on Sept 24.

Carolina HC Rivera is 32-13 ATS  L/45 after playing their last game on the road. CAROLINA is 18-6 ATS  L/24  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  375 or more yards/game.CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS  L/12 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

The Panthers are 15-0 SU/ 14-1 ATS as a regular season home favorite when they are off a road game and facing an opponent that is averaging at least 360 offensive yards per game. The smallest margin of victory came by 4 points , with the average margin of victory registering at 16 ppg.

NFL Home teams like Carolina - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams (75% or better) are 23-6 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick like Philadelphia  - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 11-35 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Troy in their last trip to the gridiron defeated LSU on the road , in a huge upset as 21 point under dogs. Now they come home to play South Alabama in conference action off a bye week and despite of being rested I'm betting it will be very hard not to be in an emotional let down scenario here as  big DD favorites.  It must  also be noted that none  of Troys 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by more than 5 points , with two coming by a FG margin. After the huge win at LSU, the Trojans now also have a huge target on their backs, and you can bet South Alabama will be primed and extremely motivated to pull of an upset of their own. With that said, I'm expecting a very hard fought affair here with the points ending up being golden. The last two meetings in this series in 2015, 2016 were decided by a 6 and 7 points respectively and similar margin of victory is what I'm projecting tonight.

S ALABAMA is 15-4 ATS  L/19 in road games in the first half of the season. TROY is 0-6 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 dating back to last season.

Play on South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Calgary Flames do battle with their long time nemesis the Anaheim Ducks this Monday night. The Flames have had a horrendous ride against the Ducks , especially when visiting California as they have lost a record setting 29 times here. Tonight the lines-makers are telling us that the Ducks should once again win, despite of being banged up. I know this streak will eventually come to an end, some day , maybe even tonight, but I'll continue to ride this gravy train till it crashes and burns. With that said, and according to Einstein, " Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a sign of insanity." 

I agree with Einstein, to an extent,  but must also point out that  from a betting perspective and in life all good and bad runs must eventually come to end. But timing it can sometimes prove difficult. So for now on what I perceive to a value money-line opportunity, I'll back the physically intimidating Ducks to make it 30 straight home victories in this series.

Flames are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. Pacific.

Ducks are 20-9 in their last 29 vs. Western Conference.Ducks are 40-16 in their last 56 vs. Pacific.Flames are 0-29 in the last 29 meetings in Anaheim.

Play on the Anaheim Ducks to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Green Bay played the Thursday night game in Week 4 and  destroyed Chicago by a DD deficit. Meanwhile, the  Cowboys have alternated wins and losses this season and looked inconsistent last week in a loss to a Rams team that must be considered a lower tier side at the moment.

After watching GB QB Aaron Rodgers operate at an extremely high level over the last couple of weeks , and knowing how streaky he is it will not be a hard decision to support a Packers side that is now in a upswing and with momentum behind them.

GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS  L/6 off a division game. HC  Garrett is  just 2-10 ATS  as a home favorite of 3 points or less. GB HC McCarthy is 29-10 ATS  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning road records.Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games on fieldturf.Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win and are  4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

NFL team like the Packers - after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 31-7 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the GB Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rams are being made favorites here against a veteran Seattle side after upsetting the Dallas Cowboys last week in a 35-30 win. But despite of the victory the Rams are exhibiting a Swiss cheese type of defense that has allowed 93 points in their L/3 tilts and more than 400 yards in two consecutive games. It must be noted that the LA RAMS are just  2-14 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games . Today against a Seattle side, with a great D , I'm betting the Rams find it hard to move the ball and score consistently and for the Seahwaks to use the momentum of consecutive offensive outbursts of 27 and 47 points to do a great deal of  offensive damage on their way to a cover.

Seahawks are 23-6-2 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS l/10 after the first month of the season. Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West.

First year coaches off an underdog SU win, are just 11-31 -1 ATS in their follow up games as chalk.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo enters this tilt against Cincinnati with a 3-1 record, and last week went into Atlanta and beat the Atlanta Falcons straight up as 8 point dogs and the week before beat a very tough Denver team. Now they are being made 3 point opening line dogs to a Cincinnati team that has looked extremely inconsistent getting shutout in their opener by a now down graded Baltimore side, and than in week 3 fell apart after taking a big lead against the Packers, showing me their defensive deficiencies. I know they clobbered the Browns last week, but that cannot be considered surprising. This week, however, I'm betting the Bengals will have their hands full with a smash mouth D, that will have them struggling to move the ball, much like was the case in their first two games where they scored a total of 9 points.

 Bengals HC Lewis is 7-18 ATS  L/25 after a 2 game road trip .Lewis is 9-20 ATS  L/29 against AFC East division opponents and is 11-22 ATS L/33 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

NFL Home favorites like the Bengals  - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-24 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams vs the money line like Buffalo - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU dating back 10 seasons for a 94% conversion rate!

NFL Road teams like the Bills- mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons. 

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Detroit Lions are 3-1 on the season, after last weeks underdog win on the road vs the Minnesota Vikings. Their one loss was a controversial one, against the Atlanta Falcons where it appeared they scored a last minute TD, that was over turned by the NFL head office despite of irrefutable  evidence. Now the up trending Lions face a Carolina side, that has been very inconsistent this season, and now off an emotional letdown scenario after defeating the league champions New England Pats last time out in a Foxboro by a 33-30 count. I'm not sold on Carolina's QB Cam Newton having back to back decent games, and feel the Lions will give him a lot of headaches here in Motown on their way to a bigger win then the lines-makers estimate.

Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL team vs the money line like the Lions - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU L/35 games for a 94% conversion rate for bettors..

Home teams like the Lions - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better) are 23-5 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah (4-0) well rested off a bye week enters this PAC 12 game against Stanford (3-2) as the most under rated team in the conference and must be respected here as home dogs. This Utes team is experienced and tough as nails and now have a viable offense to go along with a D that must be considered of the top tier variety. Meanwhile,  the Cardinal despite of pre season billing , as conference front runners, have been a disappointment in some ways especially defense , as is evident by allowing USC 42 points , UCLA 34 and Arizona State 24 points respectively. With that said, I expect the Utes to make more key defensive stops today and get us the cover , behind a multi faceted offense that can do damage.

UTAH is 34-17 ATS L/51 after a bye week and is 36-19 ATS  L/55 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Utah HC Whittingham is 18-9 ATS  l/27 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) with the average score ringing in at Utah 30.3 and opposition 25. My own estimates suggest that Utah will score at least 28 points, which is a positive indicator when considering that the Utes are 8-1 ATS L/9 when they score 28 or more points winning by an average of two TDs a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover

Projected score: Utah 30 Stanford 28

Memorial Stadium will be rocking in Lincoln, Neb. A sellout string of 358 games dating to Nov. 3, 1962 will have the Cornhuskers with a full house as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday night.

In their two most recent battles against Wisconsin they held the Badgers to 23 points and lost by 2 and 6 points respectively. I know Nebraska has started a little slowly this season, but their have been flashes of brilliance, and I'm betting the disrespect associated with  DD home underdog role, will ignite them even further. The Huskers are 5-1 ATS L/6 as conference home dog of 5 points or more , while the Badgers are 1-5 ATS as a DD road favorite vs a side off a win. ( Nebraska beat Illinois last week)

I expect the wild card to be a steadily improving Nebraska D, under the tutelage of  first-year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco.
The Blackshirts have allowed only two offensive touchdowns in the past 14 quarters. Last week, they held Illinois to 199 yards of offense, marking the third straight game in which they've held opponents to fewer than 250 yards.

NEBRASKA is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. NEBRASKA is also 22-9 ATS  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Nebraska - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-29 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Alabama has been obliterating opponents and crushed back to back SEC foes by a combined 125-3 count and are now because of this domination being made huge favorites vs a team getting very little respect from the public and linesmakers. Meanwhile, their hosts Texas A&M after losing their opener to UCLA after blowing a 44-10 lead and losing 45-44 have won 4 straight and if it were not for that epic crash would be 5-0 on the season. Now we have a situation where Sumlin and company can get some redemption, for their opening embarrassment if they can stay competitive.  With that said,  I'm betting  that the Aggies leave everything on the field today, and cover the number. (Texas A&M has covered 4 of their L/5 as DD home dogs)

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like the Aggies - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are just 9-31 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors during the 25 seasons.

Play on Texas A&M to cover

Kansas State opened up Big 12 play with a victory against Baylor and will now head back on the road to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday at Texas Memorial Stadium.   .K-State

defense remains it strong point and  has held its first four opponents to under 21 points, and I'm betting on Texas having issues scoring here today.

K-State has run over  teams from the state of Texas of late as is evident by the Cats having won their last six confrontations against teams from Texas, including all five major FBS programs in the state last season (Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor.Since 2011, K-State is 16-11 in Big 12 play on the road and should be respected here as underdogs.

K-State D is their staple, but the it must be noted that the offense has been one of the best red zone groups over the last few seasons as the Wildcats are the only team to finish in the top-15 nationally in red zone offense in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

KANSAS ST is 21-9 ATS  L/30 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.KANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS  L/17  in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. HC Snyder is 30-17 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.

CFB Road underdogs like KState - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 125-64 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 I keep looking for reasons to downgrade the SMU Mustnags, but I cannot do it based on consistent performances. They have averaged 48.5 ppg, and  scored 58, 54,36, 44, 49 points respectively in 5 tilts , with their lowest output coming against a 5-0 TCU. Now they go against a tough cougars D, that trys to eat clock with s lead. But the biggest problem with Houston is that their offense stumbles alot and is not as cohesive as their defense. Here against a extremely explosive SMU attack, I'm betting their in trouble. I know that Houston has revenge in mind for a 38-16 set back as home favs last season vs SMU, but you don't always get what you want, especially against a team like the Mustangs that matches up very well against them. With that said, getting points here makes for a viable investment option.


SMU is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game and 7-0 ATS  L/7 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games 50 -18 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like SMU - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 38-11 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover

Southern Miss looked really good in their first three games,  until the wheels fell of the proverbial truck  as they blew a decent lead vs North Texas last week. I know UTSA is undefeated in their first three games, but they continue to shoot themselves in the foot as they take a boat load full penalties ( no.1 in the nation) and that I'm betting that will be their downfall this week, vs a Southern Miss program that will be hell bent on getting some pay back for a 55-32 loss here last season. It must be noted that Southern Miss out gained the Roadrunners in that game piling up 562 yards in offense but lost because of 3 turnovers.

Play on Southern Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Colorado State will be playing their 3 rd straight road game this week, after flying out to Hawaii and beating up on the Warriors by A 51-21 count. The Rams now tired and jet lagged will be at a disadvantage  vs a feisty and somewhat surprisingly explosive Utah State Aggies side  that has put 101 points on the board in their 2 games.

Utah is 28-6-1 L/35 at home SU.

UTAH ST is 10-2 ATS  L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and is 10-2 ATS    in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.

CFN Road favorites like Colorado State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 6-27 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the Utah State Aggies to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Terps controlled Minnesota last week in a 31-24 win and held the Gophers to a season-low 309 yards , while rushing for 262 yards against a D that was ranked No. 1 in the country against the run. Now this week against a Ohio State program that smashed the Terps for the worst defeat in program history last year (62-3),  I expect a very motivated effort and more importantly a cover by the visitors in this spot.

OHIO ST is 2-10 ATS  L/12   in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. HC Meyer is 4-17 ATS   after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game which happened against Rutgers in a lopsided 56-0 win.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Ohio State - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are just 14-40 ATS in their follow up game for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like Maryland - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 105-52 ATS over the L/5 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Maryland to cover 1 unit reg selection

LSU did not prepare well for Troy State last week and were upset by a 24-21 count. The Bayou Tigers probably got caught looking to this game vs Florida. Now this week a big meeting took place on  campus and the teams coaches going forward are supposedly now on the same page, according to a press release. Whatever, that means. Truth be told this meeting was more of , what the hell happened question and answer  session. But like the old saying goes , On Any Given Sunday or Saturday in this case, any team can pull off a win.  With that said, Nothing has changed for LSU , its still a good program and still loaded with talent, and despite of their recent struggles are more than capable of upending a Florida Gators side now operating under a new QB Fileipe Franks as a  starting pivot Jack Del Rio is out with an injury. Florida won last year's meeting 16-10, stopping the Tigers on two rushes from the Gators' 1 on the final two plays of the game and now with revenge on board and HC Orgeron on the hot seat, I expect we see the best the Tigers have to offer.

LSU is 27-13 ATS   in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses  and is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite defeat, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a better than .700 opponent.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Gators - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 19-48 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State after not playing for three weeks because of hurricane  cancellations are taking  time to jell this season, especially after losing their starting QB Deondre Francois. But this Seminoles program is deep and talented, and now I'm betting we see them at their best this week vs a very good Miami Florida team . It must be noted that  Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 43-7 SU at home, in his career and has covered 14 of 17 vs undefeated opposition like the Canes including 7-1 ATS at home. FLORIDA ST is 20-8 ATS L/28 off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, and are  23-9 L/32 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.Fisher is 10-2 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. Considering Florida State has won 7 straight meetings in this series straight up, and has covered 5 straight as dogs it will not be a hard decision taking them as home pups  in this spot. 

Play on Florida State to cover   

Penn State is turning into a Big 10 contender, but Northwestern is not intimated by them in them in the  least as they have beaten them in back to back meetings. It must be also noted that Penn State has failed in 6 straight with conference revenge in road games,  and with HC Frankilin   3-11-1 ATS  and 1-7 SU and have not covered once during that span vs teams like Northwestern that have allowed 26 points or less, the Lions don't look like solid favorites

. I know Penn State has regained a lot of their tarnished respect back with some wins over the last few seasons, but not all is perfect with the football program on the field, as they have struggled with their offensive line of late, and their running game, and their overall numbers outside of the win column are also a concern. I also know Northwestern might seem like a disappointment to some who thought they turned a corner towards bigger and better things this season, but the season is still young, and today I'm betting we see them at their best.

PENN ST is 8-19 ATS  L/27  in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened in a 45-14 win vs Indiana last week.

Play on Northwestern to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the Demon Deacons showed me their toughness in  a hard fought 26-19 home loss to Florida State. Its Wake Forests D  makes them a formidable underdog as they are ranked 29th in total yards allowed (317.2 ypg), 32nd vs the pass (184.4 ypg) and 52nd vs rushing attacks (132.8 ypg), and are allowing just 14.4 ppg, which ranks them 13th in the nation.The Deacons returned 19 starters off last season's team, including senior quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile, Clemson off a road win vs VTech and out yarded by 10 yards are now exhausted after playing three top 15 football programs during the month of September. With that said, I will not be surprised if the hard working Demon Decons catch Dabo Swinney and company in a letdown spot and get us the cover.  

Wake Forests HC Dave Clawson is 11-2 ATS as a underdog of 19 or more points, including 6-0 ATS when they have a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 1-6-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 15 or more points

. WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 2-14 ATS  L/16 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are 14-40 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors over the L/5 seasons.Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 13-38 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

BYU has really fallen in every ones power rankings , but this team is still capable of a decent effort here in their own digs (59-12 L/71 SU L/12 seasons), and must not be disrespected or underestimated vs a Boise State football program that as failed to cover 12 of their L/15 games overall, and have been out yarded while allowing 29 ppg this season. It must also be noted that the Cougars  are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 when on a 4 game skid, and have won 8 straight at home SU when off a loss as a favorite as was the case in last weeks negative outcome to Utah State.

BOISE ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 ATS   after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

BYU is 30-0 SU at home since 2006 against opposition sides that allow more than 28 PPG like Boise State.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Boise State - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are a long term 35-68 ATS for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

BYU to cover  1 unit reg selection

Hamilton after a horrendous start to their season have been very competitive of late, and have covered their L/2 as DD road dogs, at Ottawa and BC winning both times SU. Now we are getting more than two TDs again with the Ti Cats vs a Winnipeg side, off a grueling and emotional underdog road win vs Edmonton last time out, and now will be in a letdown mode vs a side they maybe over looking and underestimating.

Tiger-Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 16.Tiger-Cats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Winnipeg.

CFL Road underdogs or pick like the TI Cats - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-18 ATS for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Hamilton to cover 1 unit reg selection

Many pundits are now down the New England Patriots, but any team with Tom Brady at QB and Bill Belichick as their HC is an extremely dangerous animal when wounded. I know that through four games,including Sunday's 33-30 home loss against the Carolina Panthers, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick , which is surprise considering the Pats owned the best D in the league last season. However with that said, the Pats have the  talent to right their sinking ship and trend back towards their expected norm beginning tonight in Tampa Bay.

I'm not a big proponent of laying lumber on the road in any sport, but in this situation I'm betting we have an edge, behind a QB a future hall of famer in Tom Brady that is 16-3 SU/ATS off a loss as favorite and now on the road and 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights and 6-1 ATS away.

It must be noted that TB has not had success vs defenses that are allowing a lot of yards. TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS  L/15 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing  375 or more yards/game.

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS lL6   in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game and is 9-1 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65  or more yards/play.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored with the average margin of victory coming by almost 15 ppg.

TB is 0-4 ATS at home on Thursday nights.

NFL Road favorites like the Pats - excellent passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 22-4 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the New England Pats to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone loves the offensive explosiveness of the Louisville Cards behind the legs and arm of super athletic LaMar Jackson. But what few seem to recognize is the inconsistency of the Cardinals defense, which is not of the top tier variety, as was the case against Clemson allowing 47 points, and N.Carolina 35 and Purdue 28. The only two teams that did not run over their D, was the bumbling duo of Kent St and  Murray State.  Meanwhile, NC State can play a tough brand of defense, and have shown their propensity as dogs when they upset Florida State by a 27-21 count. The Wolfpack are on a current 4 game win streak, and still have not peaked in my opinion. With revenge on board I expect this 22 returning starter side, to be wound up to get payback for a ugly and merciless  54-13 beat-down at Louisville last season.  

Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points NC State - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 88-45 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Some people and some teams  just don't like change. Looks like the Chargers are one of those teams. Since finding out their moving out of the comforts of San Diego , the team has nose dived. Since last December the Chargers are 1-11 SU/ATS overall and are 0-4SU/ATS in their new Stadium , where no more than 25000 people have come to watch them play lately. It's hardly a home winning environment, and once again I'm fading them in this spot.

LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  L/8 off 2 or more consecutive overs.

Play on Philadelphia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week vs a highly-respected defense in Denver, the Bills moved the  the ball with impunity in superb fashion and coasted to a  26-16 victory. QB Taylor completed 20 of 26 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and  now owns a  126 PASSER ratting , and could finally be reaching the bar that was set so high for him out of the gate in his career. Quote: “I sense that our team embraces some of the underdog role, and that’s good,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “There’s a lot of power in that. I would say that we focus on a lot that’s going on in this building, not outside of this building.” END QUOTE: With that said, I expect the Bills to give Atlanta all they can handle this week, and for their D, to be the key behind what I am betting will a Buffalo cover.

ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS L/22   in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game  which happened against the Lions last time out. ATLANTA is 13-32 ATS  45  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL team vs the money line like the Bills - mistake-free team - committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better have won 38 of the L/48 times SU, thus giving us extra value getting points here.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

Baltimore's Quarterback Joe Flacco had the worst game of his entire career in London last time out. He completed eight of 18 pass attempts for just 28 yards with two interceptions. He finished with a quarterback rating of 12.0 and his team was gutted 44-7. But this is still a good Ravens team, that is not as bad as their last game might indicate. Now looking to exercise the demons of that embarrassment I expect the Ravens to give their arch rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers a fight for their money this Sunday. Baltimore has bounced back well in the past off a 20 or more point loss winning 7 of 9 games straight up and teams coming back from England are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 dating back to the 2015 season.

BALTIMORE is 9-0 ATS L/9 after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game . Baltimore has covered 3 straight in this series, and are 2-0  ATS/SU L/2 at home.

NFL Road favorites like the Steelers - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-73 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Nevada enters this game at 0-4, but they have been very competitive according to my own numbers (not so much last week vs a great looking Wash St side) but overall stats and power rankings and must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Fresno State despite of a 1-2 record are according to my own numbers, no more than -5.5 to 6 point home favorite,. I know that the Wolfpack could be with out RB Jaxon Kincaide, but as I have said before, that position is the most easily filled position in College Football, and the Pack can fill the void if need be. With that said, I'm betting on Nevada off a bye week  covering what I believe to be a generous spread. Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.

NEVADA is 8-1 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game .Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Fresno State.Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.FRESNO ST is 7-22 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.

Play on Nevada to cover

Clemson owns a great football program and I have a lot of respect for them. But tonight I'm going against them vs a side that matches up well head to head with them, the VTech Hokies. In last seasons ACC Championship game the Tigers pulled off a 42-35 win and now pay back is on Justin Fuente mind. It must be noted as great as Clemson is, they are just 3-7 ATS as 10 point or less away favs, and 4-9 ATS L/13 vs a conference side with revenge. Meanwhile, VTech is 7-0 ATS L/7 at home with ACC revenge as a underdog. It must also be noted that National champs are 0-6 ATS away L.37 years, when laying points against an undefeated opponent.

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 6-20 ATS  L/26 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight. VTech has covered 6 of the L/9 in this series including 2 of 3 here at home.

CFB Road favorites like Clemson - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-37 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection

Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic (1-3) might not be putting many  wins up on the board , but they are showing steady improvement. Last week against a very strong Buffalo Bulls football program they went toe to toe losing a 34-31 heartbreaker as 3 point road dogs . Now this week as they peak  I am betting their  ready to notch a home  victory vs a banged up Middle Tennessee State (2-2) side, that has starting QB Brent Stockstill suffering with a shoulder injury and key wide receiver, Richie James dealing with an ankle injury. It must also be noted RB Shane Tucker is also banged up.  If any of them play they are expected to be less than 100%. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 35-11 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover

LSU looks like they have problems and  HC Orgeron is on the hot seat. Another tumultuous game is now on the Horizon vs a feisty Troy group that is a perfect 4-0 L/4 as 21 or more point dogs.  As a matter of fact Orgeron is his career is just 10-25 SU vs an above .500 side. That is not a good omen for a LSU gridiron group that utilizes RB Derrius Guice a great deal to move the ball, and with him banged up, and no one as talented as him to take his place, I'm  negative on the Bayou Bengals chances at covering.

LSU is 2-12 ATS L/14   in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.LSU is 7-18 ATS  L/25 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.

CFB Road underdogs like Troy - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 103-52 dating back 10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State outs yarded Notre Dame last week by 141 yds, but still found themselves on the wrong end of a lopsided score thanks to no less than three costly turnovers and a boatload full of penalty yards. Now this week, with less pressure on them to perform I expect they beat up on a Iowa team that is completely deflated after a hugely emotional loss to Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes played their hearts out, and have nothing to show for it and  now will have nothing left in the tank for this tilt. With Michigan on board next week, you can bet we will see the best the Spartans here.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

This Buffalo football program has come a long way over the last few seasons, and are now in a position to challenge for a MAC Championship. The Bulls played Big 10 opponent Minnesota very tough in their opener losing by a 17-7 count and are 2-1 since.   Now they go against a 0-3 Kent State side, that has been out yarded by an average of 352 yards per game so far this season. With said, I'm betting this very good Buffalo Bulls  team comes out here with their helmets on fire as  they look to avenge last years 44-20 drubbing at home vs the Flashes. It must be noted that the host team is 0-7 ATS L/7 in this series.

KENT ST is 0-9 ATS  after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game and  is 0-10 ATS  after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

CFB Home underdogs like Kent St - after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 18-46 ATS over the last 10 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State (0-2) looked rusty after an extended layoff, because of Hurricane Irma,  vs NC State and lost 27-21. But this team is just to talented not to get up off the matt and get things going, even with star QB Deandre Francois out with an injury. I know Wake Forest is a fine team, but the Seminoles thrive vs top tier defenses as Fisher is 10-1 ATS   vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game winning SU by more than 20 points per game on average.  

 FLORIDA ST is 38-22 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.  
 

CFB Road teams like Florida State with a 0-2 record, playing as road favorites are 5-0 ATS vs a undefeated side like Wake Forest (4-0) dating back 20 seasons. 

Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt got blasted by No.1 Alabama last week, by an embarrassing 59-0 count. Now looking to get some pride and respectability back I'm betting the Commodores come out here and give a Gators program off back to back last minute wins vs Tennessee and Kentucky , a run for their money.  The Gators after those aforementioned victories will now find themselves in a letdown spot, and showcase what has become a lethargic  inconsistent attack that lives and dies via a internal horse shoe wedged deep inside of them. Both these teams can play a strong grinding defensive style of football, and that's what I'm betting happens today in what will be closer game than the line indicates. Thus getting points here will be golden in my humble opinion.

VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread dating back to last season! Vandys HC Mason is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Florida - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 13-39 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Hawaii played a very good game last time out despite of losing to Wyoming. They outplayed their opponent and still did not find the win column. Now jetlagged and downtrodden, an emotional let down scenario, is at hand when they play the Colorado State Rams. After staying competitive vs a extremely tough Alabama program last time out, and scoring 23 points in a cover, this will seem like a walk in the park for the Rams.

COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.COLORADO ST is 18-6 ATS  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 yards/play or more. COLORADO ST is 23-8 ATS L/31   vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.HAWAII is 4-13 ATS  L/17 against conference opponents.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS   after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.HAWAII is 1-8 ATS L/9 off a road loss.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Colorado State  - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 31-8 ATS  for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover  1 unit reg selection

USC( 4-0) No.5  enter this game ranked very highly ,  thanks in part to an early season DD win vs a tough Stanford group. Other than that victory, they have barely gotten past three of their opponents. Now here against No.16 Washington State (4-0) their undefeated season is in jeopardy vs a HC Mike Leach team that is 9-1 ATS as a dog vs a undefeated side like USC. It must also be noted that Washington States D, is 100 ypg better than the Trojans at this point in the season, and will be the difference maker here tonight in a tilt featuring two explosive offenses.

WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS  L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play.WASHINGTON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9  in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return .USC is 0-8 ATS L/8  in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite.WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS  L/16 when the total is greater than or equal to 63.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Washington State- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 49-17 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover 1 unit reg selection

After facing LSU , Utah, and Wisconsin, going against Utah State for BYU will be like a walk in the park even though they are expected to be without starting QB Tanner Magnum. Those games toughened up this Mormon football program and have them ready to compete here this week. Utah State is coming off a lopsided win vs downtrodden San Jose State last time out, but it must be noted that Utah State has logged a lot air miles so far this season, and may finally have a down game. The Aggies travelled out to Wisconsin to begin their season, than all the way home to Utah to play Idaho St in week 2, and than back east to play Wake Forest and than back to San Jose State on the West Coast. Tired is the best way to describe the Aggies. Also Utah State is just  are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and have covered just 3 of their L/10 vs a non conference opponent. Aggies are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS L/9 as an underdog losing SU by an average of 23.7 ppg.

Play on BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Duke coach David Cutcliffe doesn't like that his Blue Devils are playing a Friday night home game against No. 14 Miami and has it made known publicly . I don't like the fact that Friday night football exists because it should be for high schools," Cutcliffe said to the Raleigh News & Observer. So he's not in a good mood and should have his team take it out on his opposition the Miami Fl Canes.Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fla.,last season, and now the smell of revenge is in the air. With Miami just 3-7ATS as road fav vs an undefeated team and 0-5 as chalk of 7 points or less Ill recommend we pull the trigger on the Blue Devils.

MIAMI is 4-14 ATS L/18 after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

 CFB Road favorites like Miami Fl- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game or less ), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 8-31 ATS L/25 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover 1 unit reg selection

So Texas is a favorite here based on reputation and past pedigree, but definitely not because their current form. This is a team that even their greatest high profile fan Matthew McConaughey could  not feel good about. Tom Herman has a great reputation , but he is still dealing with a  young gridiron group  dealing with a Charlie Strong hangover, and they will  take  a while to jell. So here on the road against a feisty Iowa State side, I'm betting the visiting Longhorns who are 1-4 ATS L/5 as conference road chalk will find it tough to get out of here with a cover. It must be noted that Iowa State is 8-0-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 16 points or less vs a below .500 team with Matt Campbells teams covering 6 of their L/8 as a home dog.

TEXAS is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season and is 6-16 ATS    in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game.IOWA ST is 9-2 ATS   after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.Campbell is 13-4 ATS L/17  in home games in the first half of the season .

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona is being underestimated here in my humble opinion and listed as underdogs vs a very public Dallas side. However,  I am not totally surprised after last seasons disappointing results for the Cards, and the  top tier season that the Cowboys had. But now their seems to be decent in the Boyz locker room and side lines  with  coach  Garrett calling out RBs Elliott's hustle and or competitiveness when the RB  showed little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions in the Cowboys embarrassing loss at Denver last week. That kind of work ethic, tells me a story of a Dallas team that might be resting on their recent laurels and believing in their own headlines, which won't equate well in on the field performances as was the case last week . Elliott had more carries (nine) than rushing yards (eight) in that tilt and Prescott did not look like a star QB.

Despite of missing the play offs last year Bruce Arians team outstated their opponents overall, and once again look like viable post season contenders this year. It must be noted that Dallas is just 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 in this series, 0-3 SU/ATS L/3 games here in the desert losing all three as chalk. Meanwhile, Arizona is 14-1 ATS L/15 and 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition , and have covered 11 straight vs these teams off a victory.Arians is 6-0 ATS  L/6 as a home underdog of 3 points or less  and is 9-1 ATS  as a home underdog of 7 points or less .

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone loves the Raiders and their explosive attack, and they are a fine team behind an exceptional QB in Carr and a strong offensive line, but their Achilles heel remains their defense. Also with the success and attention they have garnered they now have a big target on their backs with teams very hyped up to bring them back down to earth. Tonight I'm betting that Oakland after logging a lot of miles during the L/3 weeks , first travelling out to Tennessee in a highly charged game, than flying back home to the West Coat last week for their opener, and now back east to play in DC , could easily find themselves in a letdown spot and tired against a motivated Redskins side that would love nothing more to pull off an upset. It must also be noted that the Raiders are 0-7 ATS away in Sunday games after back to back SU/ATS wins.

The Raiders are 0-13 ATS L/14 on grass after a game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average, and are 1-12 SU losing SU by an average of 2 TDs per game, with the lone win coming by 3 points.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 1 unit reg selection

New Orleans have started their season, at 0-2, and while its still early, a sense of urgency now permeates around the team, and now I'm betting on big effort from the Saints against  2-0 Carolina  this Sunday. I know both teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum , entering this tilt, but I pretty well know what to expect from both teams when they meet based on my power and head to head divergence rankings .With that said, my own numbers based on both teams strengths and weakneeses  tell me that this game will be closely contested, thus making getting points to be a viable  investment decision.

Saints HC Payton is 15-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses and is 19-8 ATS L/27  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orelans is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL Home favorites like Carolina  - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games 5-23 ATS for a go against  82% conversion rate for bettors dating 5 seasons.

The Saints are 13-0 ATS L/13 when facing an undefeated team after week 1 and 9-4 SU with two losses coming by 2 points and the other two by 4 and 5 points respectively.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover

Atlanta (2-0) got by their first two opponents, and have yet to experience the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.However, with that said, I'm betting that hangover finally catches up with them this week vs a Detroit Lions team that is finally starting to live up to expectations behind their top tier QB Matthew Stafford. Detroit has a good recent history vs NC South opponents winning 5 straight meetings and get the nod again today,

NFL Road Favs like Atlanta - a solid team from last season-outscored opposition by 7 or more points , after a win by 10 or more points are 4-22 ATS L/26 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettotrs 34 seasons.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Rosen jumped out  to the top of the Heisman watch list after throwing for 3,668 yards and 23 touchdowns as a freshman in 2015 and than last season , the hopes for  UCLAs winning the PAC 12 and making a big Bowl appearance was erased because of the Rosen injury.  Now after his triumphant return to the gridiron which saw the Bruins stage a miraculous 45-44 comeback win vs Texas A&M after being down by more than 30 points at one point , the legend of Josh Rosen continues to grow. So far this season he's been lights out, and despite of losing a 48-45 heartbreaker last week in Memphis he must be respected here vs Stanford just because of the share fire power this Bruins team has. Yes, they're defense is their Achilles heel, and Mora's team  will give a load of points on a regular basis, to strong offenses, but their own offense will keep them in most games, as I am betting  will be the case this week vs the Cardinal who are not a confident group at the moment after coming off two straight losses, to USC and San Diego State.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Stanford  - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 15-42 ATS for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors during the past 10 seasons.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UCLA - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-19 ATS for a 73% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons.

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Notre Dame goes on the road for the 2nd week in a row. Last week , the band wagon crawlers came out of the woodwork , after the Irish defeated Boston College. However defeating this  Michigan State program will be a much harder conquest. The Spartans enter this game as the nations 3rd ranked D, and must not be disrespected on offense either as a deep set of backs could easily wreak havoc on a side, that may find it difficult  adjusting and dealing with a team that can actually move the ball, after facing Boston Colleges horrendous offense last week. It must be noted that Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of the L/13 games in this series, and the Spartans  DanAntonio  is 17-2-1 ATS L/20 at home taking on sides off a SU/ATS victory.

MICHIGAN ST is 15-3 ATS L/18 allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games.MICHIGAN ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

NOTRE DAME is 2-14 ATS  L/16.  in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

CBB Road favorites like the Fighting Irish- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 7-31 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Florida Gators have beaten the Kentucky Wildcats 30 straight times. It does not seem to matter which team is better at the time of the meetings. With that said, and after watching Florida fail away on offense in their first few games of the season, they suddenly woke up with a 63 yard hail Mary pass to defeat Tennessee 26-20 last week, and  will now be sky high , entering this game  and I'm betting be jolted into getting some more points on the board With that said, the Gators defense is extremly solid and of the top tier variety and here against a Kentucky team that can be inconssitent with their attack a times , I'm betting their in trouble. The Wildcats have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as dogs of 10 points or less. With that said, I recommend we take the Gators in this spot. 

FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS    in road games after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.

Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection 

I'm betting Florida Atlantics new HC  Lane Kiffin and company after having time to work with his new team is finally ready to make his mark. It takes time to have a team jell, and now with 3 games in their back pockets against the likes of Wisconsin and Navy and a blow out tune up win last week 45-0 vs Bet Cooke, Kiffins Owls behind 14 returning starters and a talented quarterback  will now be fine tuned to take out (cover) Buffalo as visitors. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic  - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 26-5 ATS for a 84% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons

.CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Buffalo - after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 9-30 ATS L/39 dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Florida Atlantic Owls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week SMU was hyped up to play in state rivals TCU , and despite of a valiant effort still got blown out by DDs. Now in a letdown situation the Mustangs face a very staunch and experienced Arkansas State team that must never be underestimated. Arkansas State struggled last year to score despite of a top tier D,  but after HC Blake Anderson took control of the QBS in the off season  they look extremely cohesive now , and buoy the teams chances at repeating as and one of the top Sun Belt football programs as well as staying competitive today against a very explosive offense .According to my own power rankings the Red Wolves  have a 52% chance of pulling off the SU upset, and  a much higher probability of more importantly covering the spread.

SMU is 5-16 ATS  L/21  in home games after playing 2 straight non-conference games.

Home favorites like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after a loss by 17 or more points are 25-58 ATS L/83 L/5 years for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Arkansas State Red Wolves to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State enters this game off a DD loss to Minnesota last time out by a 34-3 count, and are banged with key wide receiver, Richie James at less than 100% or expected to miss with a ankle injury as well as starting QB Brent Stockstill who still questionable with a shoulder injury. These key contributors will effect the cohesiveness of the Blue Raiders, making them fade material tonight vs a desperate Bowling Green team that needs a win badly after 3 straight losses.

BOWLING GREEN is 25-12 ATS  when playing against a losing team with a (Win Pct. 25% to 40% like Middle Tennessee State.BOWLING GREEN is 13-4 ATS L/17 after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread.BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 ATS L/6  in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Bowling Green - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on the Bowling Green to cover 1 unit reg selection

Montreal has revenge on board for a embarrassing 38-6 beatdown at the hands of the Argos last time these teams met on Aug 19.  That loss triggered a current 5 game losing streak for the Als, and now I expect a big time motivated effort from Montreal in this spot as they look for payback and a chance at correcting their current run. It must be noted that Montreal did beat the Als the week before the above mentioned loss  by a 21-9 count, and actually matchup well vs Toronto.

TORONTO is 2-9 ATS L/11 versus poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse - after 9 or more games.TORONTO is 2-16 ATS L/18 in home games versus good passing defenses - allowing 7.4 or less passing yards/att - after 9 or more games . TORONTO is 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

CFL Dogs or pick like Montreal - revenging a loss versus opponent, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 57-19 dating back 21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Also CFL Underdogs or pick like Montreal - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite 35-9 ATS dating 21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Montreal Als to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force played valiantly against Michigan last week covering as DD dogs, behind a top tier defense, so going up against San Diego State side that has an upper tier D, won't be an issue. Meanwhile, San Diego State enters this tilt off a DD dog win vs Stanford, last week in a grueling close  game and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a Falcons side that has won 5 straight at home as underdogs. This game has the makings of an extremely close affair.

The Falcons have surrendered only one offensive touchdown in  their L/10 quarters of play, dating back to a 45-21 win over South Alabama in the 2016 Arizona Bowl.

Calhoun is 19-5 ATS L/24 when the total is between 42.5 and 49.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt enters this tilt as the top team in the nation in Scoring D and are No.2 in red zone D. there a top tier team that must not be disrespected as was the case last week when they defeated Snyders KState by a 14-7 count.  I know how strong Alabama is and their legendary status is sometimes hard to bet against, even getting this many points. With that said, this week I'm going against the main stream betting minds and talking heads and taking points with  a football program on the rise, in their most important game of the season. the Commodores dating back to last season have won 5 straight at home, and have upset two top 25 opponents along the way, and are a bankroll expanding 9-2 ATS L/11 as 15 point or more dogs. note: Nick Saban has covered on 2 of his L/7 as fav of 15 points or more between undefeated teams.

Despite of losing 14 straight in this series the  Commodores are 10-4 ATS in those games including 5-2 ATS L/7 as hosts.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 11-37 ATS for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 seasons.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Vandy - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season 39-10 ATS L/49 for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years .

Play on Vanderbilt 1 unit reg selection

Toledo is one of the best teams in the MAC, and deserve respect. But Miami is a national championship contender in my opinion, and also deserve a great deal of respect. After watching Toledo get torched by Tulsa last week for 51 points and 548 total yards , I feel Miami's offense will be ready to chew Rockets  up this week. But unfortunately for Toledo, they won't be able to reciprocate with their own offensive fireworks vs a very strong Hurricane D ,like they did vs Tulsa 's stand and  watch secondary and D last week. Toledo's coach agrees with my assessments , as here is a quote from Jason Candle who is concerned about Miami's speed.
Quote: "I see a team that's built on players from South Florida," he said. "Lot of speed. They play fast on defense. They're running to the football and getting to you with bad intentions when they do get to the ball.
"And on offense there's a multitude of guys that can score from anywhere. They've got a tremendous back in Mark Walton and some good receivers on the perimeter that can score it.
"I think the quarterback is going to continually get better as the year goes on." END quote:

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 off a home win by 17 points or more.MIAMI is 7-0 ATS L/7 after scoring 37 points or more last game . MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game.

Play on Miami FL to cover 1 unit unit reg selection

North Carolina after losses to California and Louisville in their first two home games, will now be ready to get into the win column vs a inconsistent looking Duke football program, that had problems dealing with a downtrodden Baylor team last week. Here on the road in their ACC opener things promise to be a lot more difficult for Duke, and I won't be surprised if they lose straight up as favs. It must be noted that North Carolina has scored and increased their offensive output in each game so far this season, 30, 35, 53 points respectively and are now in a offensive groove and ready to compete. 
 

HC Fedora is 7-0 SU/ATS following a victory where his team has a below .500 record. ( The tar Heels smashed Old Dominion last week by a 53-23 count.  
 

N CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS  L/33 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game. 
 

CFB team (N CAROLINA) - terrible defensive team (440 YPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (280 YPG or less), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-7 ATS L/25 years for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 
 

Play on North Carolina to cover  1 unit reg selection

woUtah in my opinion is turning into a PAC12 championship contender, thanks to being able to generate more of a downfield passing game along with their already very viable run attack and what is becoming a defense that ranks among the nations toughest and most physical. I know Arizona can put points up in bunches, but their D despite of showing some improvements , still remains susceptible to allowing a ton of yards and a now in trouble vs a multi- dimensional attack like Utah owns.

Arizona ripped N.Arizona and lowly UTEP in their tow big wins, but against a decent team , Houston they lost by 19-16 count and were slowed on the ground. With that said, I'm betting Utah's vicious D, will be the difference maker here today and their ability to score from many angles makes them the right side tonight vs their hosts Arizona.

Arizona HC Rodriguez is 0-6 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game like Utah and were outscored by an average of 16.7 ppg. .Rodriguez is 1-15 ATS L/26 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games with average margin loss coming by 13.7 ppg. \Utah HC Whittingham is 10-2 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.UTAH is also 22-9 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) winning by a average of a TD a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rams lost at home to the Redskins last week by a  27-20 count while San Francisco looked really tough in a grinding 9-6 loss at Seattle last week. This SF team looks very much like a blue collar group looking for respect and they now have it from me after watching clips of last weeks game vs  HC Carroll and company. I know the 49ers offense has looked muted so far this season against elite defenses that are owned by the Seahawks and Panthers in their first two games, but against a Rams defense that has proven very inconsistent over the last few seasons, I'm now expecting a reversal in the Niner's offensive output and more importantly a cover in this spot.\

49ers are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL teams like the 49ers- after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 34-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line LA Rams  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team last year (25% or less) are 8-27 for a 77% conversion rate.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Green Bay Packers have revenge on their minds tonight against the Atlanta Falcons after last seasons, 44-21 conference final blowout that had them ousted from Super Bowl contention. Now in pay back mode, I expect the Packers who are 6-1 ATS Sunday night revengers, as dogs, and a bankroll expanding 9-1 ATS L/10 behind QB Aaron Rodgers when looking for revenge against a .750 or better opponent to get the job done here . Note: The Falcons have failed to cover 11 straight, as home chalk in reg season play following a victory when facing a side with revenge.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Chargers, on a short week after playing the back end of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, will be a little tired jet lagged and in an emotional letdown scenario after absorbing a heartbreaking 27-24 loss to Denver in the Mile High City in their opener. Meanwhile, Miami after having their last game cancelled because of Hurricane Irma will be well rested and fresh.

Today taking points is a viable option considering the circumstances. It must also be noted that the Chargers lost eight games by seven points or fewer last year, one of them to the Dolphins and seem to take part in an endless amount of close games, and I'm betting, as do the linesmakers, on another one here.

Last week the Chargers got run over for a 140 yads on the ground, and I'm betting that will be their downfall this week vs the Fins running attack behind Jay Ajayi.

MIAMI is 40-17 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Miami is 10-3 SU L/13 in this series.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Oakland travelled West to East in an emotional charged first game that saw them clip a strong Tennessee team in their own back yard. Now drained and tired (jet lag) and playing a side that they may over look, I expect a letdown performance that leads to a no cover decision. OAKLAND is 20-40 ATS  L/60 off a upset win as an underdog dating back 25 seasons and are 0-6 ATS following a dog win last time out and now playing a below .500 foe.

Note: The Raiders are 1-7 ATS L/8 home openers.

Any team NY Jets- team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 24-5 ATS for a 83% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. Home teams like the Raiders - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 18-44 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Early on in every season we get carried away with evaluating a certain team after just one game. Jacksonville looked great in beating up on the  Texans as road dogs in week 1 by a 29-7 count, while Tennessee lost to what many think will be a Super bowl contender this season the Oakland Raiders by a 26-16 score. However,  its obvious to me that Tennessee is a special team with huge potential upside, behind one of leagues premier QBs Marcus Mariota , while the Jags are a side that while looking better, have shown very little pedigree in the past and must not be over estimated for their talent levels. With that said, I'm betting on the superior team  according to my own power rankings ( Titans) to bring home the win in this spot and get us the cover as short road favs.

NFL team vs the money line like the Jags - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or worse) playing a team had a winning record last year are just 1-28 L/29 times dating back 34 years.

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 1 unit reg selection

I'm not going to get over emotional and start judging the defending Super Bowl Champion, New England Patriots flat performance last time out, a 42-27 loss to the KC Chiefs. Being a successful team like the Pats, I think its hard sometimes getting up and motivated for any game, yes even for an opener. Add to that the amazing come from behind Super Bowl win, and an emotional letdown/hangover situation was not that surprising. Now this week, after being embarrassed in game 1 of their season, I expect Tom Brady and company will be wide awake this Sunday, which is not a good omen for the Saints chances in their home opener.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS  L/20 in all games.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS   after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game .NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 after playing a game at home .NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS  L/19 as a favorite .

The Patriots are 18-0 SU/ ATS L/18  on turf vs a non-divisional opponent when they are averaging less than 3.80 yards per rush and have won those games by an average of 18.83 ppg.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

The defending Grey Cup Champion Ottawa RedBlacks after winning 3 straight games conclusively, fell asleep at the proverbial wheel last time out and were upset by the lowly Hamilton Ti Cats 26-22. The usually hard working RedBlacks were dismal in that game, and now I'm betting they rebound in a big way  vs a Montreal team that has lost 4 straight and 6 of their L/7 SU , and that they clobbered 32-4 at Montreal on Aug 31.  .

Ottawa is 7-1 SU/ATS L/8 meetings in this series.

OTTAWA is 10-1 ATS  L/11  in road games after playing a game at home.OTTAWA is 7-0 ATS   in road games versus division opponents .MONTREAL is 3-14 ATS    in home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 rushing yards/game or less - after 9 or more games.MONTREAL is 0-6 L/6 ATS  as a home underdog of 3 points or less.

CFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Montreal - off a non-conference game are 43-11 ATS for a 80% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons.  

Play on the Ottawa RedBlacks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Rocky Long has really put together a excellent football program at San Diego State, and really deserves a lot more respect than his team is getting from the lines-makers tonight. Meanwhile, Stanford despite of being a fine team, are in a huge letdown situation after being knocked out against USC last week and will find it difficult to get up off the proverbial matt(turf) here this week. San Diego State is a tough dog at home and have failed to cover only once their L/7 as hosts of 5 point dogs or more. Both these teams pound the ball on the ground consistently and both have stoppers on defense. I'm betting this is a grinding affair that will see getting  points being golden. Note: San Diego State limited Arizona State to 44 rushing yards and 1.4 yards per attempt.

The Aztecs have won 20 of their last 23 home games.

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-3 ATS  L/14 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins .

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Stanford - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi in no way shape or form should be favs here, even against a rebuilding California program. Travelling from East to West for any North American team is difficult proposition especially for a side, like Ole Miss that has looked asleep at the proverbial wheel at times this season despite of their perfect record and may still be reeling with the shock of losing their coach because of sex scandal.

Overall the Rebs are 7-23 ATS L/30 road favs including 0-7 ATS L7 off 2 consecutive wins.

With the Bears new defensive schemes, and coaching philosophies , I'm betting scoring on them they may not be as easy as was the case in the recent past.

Take the points here with the California Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Clemson had to face a very tough Auburn offense last week  winning by a 14-6 count, and now this week against a porous Louisville D, this will seem like a walk in the park. I have come to the conclusion that the Cards defense is of the Swiss cheese variety after watching a rebuilding North Carolina offense slice and dice them last week for 35 points on 401 yds and Purdue put 28 points on them the week before . I know a lot is being made of Heisman Trophy front runner LaMar Jackson of the Cardinal, who helped his team stay unbeaten by buoying the offense with 47 points in that above mentioned game, but this top tier college QB will really have his work cut out for him against an elite defense that has allowed a total of 9 pts in two game and I'm betting will come down to earth in this spot. Remember , folks, as great as Jackson is , he cannot play D, and that will be his teams downfall this week.

Play on Clemson to cover

The Commodores enter this game vs Kstate averaging 384 yards of total offense while giving up an average of 159 yards per game. They're averaging 122 yards per tilt on the ground and 261.5 through the air. Most important, the Commodores have not had a turnover.Quarterback Kyle Shurmur has completed 76.1 percent of his passes for 249 yards per game and seven touchdowns. This young QB is super intelligent , and plays within his limitations, making him a dangerous foe. Meanwhile, on the flipside  I know  KState's Coach (Bill) Snyder is one of the best in the business, but he's not perfect, especially on the road losing 3 of his L/13 non conference road games and 5 of his L/20 Sept road games. With my own projections estimating this game to be decided by a FG or a late score taking points here makes for a very viable wager.

VANDERBILT is 13-2 ATS  L/15 off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points KState - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS dating 25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Also CFB  home team Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. CFB  home team like Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa enters the Glass Bowl against one of the best teams in the MAC, Toledo, but won't be easily intimidated behind  a potent offense that put 66 points on the board last week.  It must also be noted that its never easy for a north American sports team to travel east to west over multiple time zones like Toledo did last week in a trip to Nevada. Now going against a fast and explosive Tulsa team, I'm betting the sledding will not be easy , as the Rockets will be a little Jet lagged and tired in this spot.

Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa  - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-5 ATS going back 10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB. road team like Tulsa - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-8 ATS L/38 for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State took out the Syracuse Orange last week 30-23 on the road,  and in the previous game , played a very good SEC team Vanderbiilt tough losing by a 28 -6 count. Now against a Minnesota side getting to many accolades after smashing a  Oregon State team with series issues, I'm betting they revert back to the norm and for Middle Tennessee State to  make a game of this and  even possible pull off a SU upset. In the Gophers previous game to last weeks road win, they barely squeezed by the Buffalo Bisons of the MAC at home by a 17-7 count as 21.5 favs, and things won't come much easier here. With that said, I'll recommend we take anything that resembles +8.5 to+10 .

MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS  L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over.

Play on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection

Old Dominion may not be a big name school form a power 5 conference, but they are a viable underdog here against a rebuilding North Carolina program, that continues to exhibit very poor defensive abilities over the last few seasons.  Last season Old Dominion was 7-0 SU at home and must not be underestimated in what is their biggest game of the season . With the Tar Heels QB expected to be less than 100% this week with a ankle injury, I'm betting that  N.Carolina at 0-2 and losing the stats war by an average 167 ypg  has issues moving the ball with consistency , against a staunch Monarchs D , while their own D, will have problems stopping anything that can move.

N CAROLINA is 10-25 ATS L/35  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game which happened against Louisville last week.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

TCU proved to me as long as they stay healthy they are going to be a juggernaut this season. Last week they owned Arkansas and were the more physical of both teams, winning a 28-7 decision . Now this week against SMU I'm betting we see an even more explosive effort vs a lower tier side that does not matchup well against them at all in almost aspects of the game.

TCU is 7-0 ATS   as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points since 1992 winning by an average of 31.1 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like TCU - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. are 40-13 L/53 for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. home team like TCU - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Looking at this game in a casual way will have many assuming that Nebraska will blowout N.Illinois  today in Lincoln. But N.Illnois has travelled well in the past and will not be easily intimidated by a team, that gave up 42 points to Oregon last week, and 36 points to lower tier  Arkansas State the week before. Nebraska was also hypoed for that last game vs the Ducks and will be in a natural let down spot  here. There are some definite defensive issues that have yet to be addressed , by the Huskers and I expect a Northern Illinois side that is averaging 433 yards of offense this season with a pretty even split  with their  ground and aerial attack behind  QB Daniel Santacaterina to do enough damage to stay within  the number.  It must also be noted that Northern Illinois is allowing only 17 PPG to opposing teams this season on the defensive side of the ball and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the home team here and make this closer than expected.
 
  N ILLINOIS is 9-1 ATS L/10  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game .N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.N ILLINOIS is 37-19 ATS  L/56 as a road underdog.

 Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone and his dog loves, the UCLA Bruins after their amazing comeback against Texas A&M in their opener winning a 45-44 freak show and followed that up with a easy win vs Hawaii and their dysfunctional defense. But now against a Memphis  program that has proven they can take down big programs in the recent past, I'm betting things won't come so easily for the Bruins as they now go on the road travelling from west to east , which is never an easy trek, especially with an early start time to deal with . The Bruins did not have much of an emotional letdown after their big comeback win in their opener, but now on a delayed reaction basis I expect they will deflate. It must be noted that the /Tigers are 16-4 in their L/20 home games SU, and are 15-3 ATS as home dogs facing a team off  consecutive wins including a perfect 6-0 ATS record vs non conference foes under the same perimeters. Also with UCLA looking ahead to the PAC 12 opener with Stanford, their attention won't be completely on this game. Note: (The Bruins are 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing Stanford)

UCLA is 1-8 ATS  L/9 after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB Road favorites like UCLA - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kansas lost last week to Central Michigan at home as favorites. Key mistakes finally saw them lose by a 45-27 loss in a game that was closer than the final score might indicate. Now this week as dogs on the road vs another MAC team I'm betting they have a good chance at covering. With Ohio looking forward to a big revenger against a strong E.Michigan team next week, I expect Kansas to catch Ohio napping like they did last season when they pulled off an upset win against the Texas Longhorns. Kansas has cashed their L/2 against MAC opponents as underdogs.

Play on Kansas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Falcons (1-0) bring a seven-game winning streak into The Big House to play Michigan this week. Meanwhile, Harbaugh's Wolverines are 2-0 and looking strong. But Air Force behind their option offense, provides big problems , yes even for good coaches, especially when these top coaches have not faced these types of attacks regularly. The Falcons know how to put up points in bunches, as they never scored fewer than 27 last season, when they finished 10-3 and beat South Alabama in the Arizona Bowl. They have exceeded the 40-point mark four times during their winning streak,, and will do some damage again today against Harbaughs tough D, making them viable underdogs in this spot. Note: Air Force has won six straight games against non-conference opponents and have cashed 4 straight on the road vs non conference opposition of 17 points or more. With Harbaugh eyeing his Big 10 opener against Purdue, I'm expecting the old ball coach won't have his full attention here. Michigan is 0-7 ATS L/7 before facing Purdue.

AIR FORCE is 20-8 ATS  L/28 after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.MICHIGAN is 16-35 ATS  L/51 after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games .

CFB Home favorites like Micigan - off a home win by 17 points or more, in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season are 11-33 ATS L/44 for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona beat N.Arizona in week 1 by a 62-24 count and then lost a hard fought 19-16 battle vs Houston last week. Meanwhile the UTEP Miners fell to 0-2 on the season after being crushed by the Rice Owls 31-14, this past Saturday. UTEP struggled offensively throughout the game which is not a good omen for their chances against a Arizona offense that will find this game like a walk in the park after facing a stout Cougars D last week. Note: UTEP has allowed an average of 43+ ppg in two tilts, and with a less than cohesive offense, that is now without  key RB Aaron Jones who declared for the NFL draft and left the program. , things won't get better for a side that is ranked 126th in the nation in offense.  
 

UTEP is 1-8 ATS L/9 in September games with the average score ringing in at 43.1 to 19.7 ppg for a average margin of defeat coming by 23.4 ppg. UTEP is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in the first half of the season  with their opponents averaging 40.1 ppg and with them scoring just 17.4 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Arizona  - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 43-14 ATS dating back 24 seasons.

Play on Arizona to cover 1 unit reg selection

South Florida has not looked all that good in their first two games , maybe its the Charlie Strong effect, just maybe the Bulls over achieved last season, and now we expect more of them. In their first game, they were down to San Jose State 16-0 before coming back for the win, and vs Stony Brook were down 10-7 at the half before storming back. Last week their game against UConn was cancelled and instead of the rest doing them well, I'm betting it makes them rustier than they have already looked. Meanwhile, Illinois looks to be making progress under the tutelage of Lovie Smith, and must not be disrespected here in this spot. It must be noted that Illinois has covered 4 straight in their L/4 as 14 point or more dogs to a non conference foe. Meanwhile South Florida is 0-5 SU in the programs history vs the Big 10 with ACC teams going just 3-23 vs the Big 10.

CFB road team like Illinois - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 126-72 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week New Mexico came out flat against New Mexico state and fell behind by a 30-5 count, before coming back with 23 4th Quarter points, and than failing to tie it on a two point conversion. It was a valiant effort by a decent team, and now they will be primed to come out here , and upend a Boise State football program off a heart breaking OT loss to Washington State loss last time out and now in a huge emotional let down situation. With Boise State just 1-10-1 ATS L/12 at home as favs, and New Mexico showing heart as DD, conference dog going 12 -2 ATS L/14, we have value here . I know that Boise State whooped the Lobos last season at visitors to Albuquerque, by a 49-21 count, but New Mexico's HC Bob Davie is 11-2 ATS as a DD MWC underdog with revenge.  With that said, I'm betting on the Lobos staying close enough to cover here, and for the Broncos Bryan Harsin to fall to 0-8 ATS in his L/8 conference home games.

NEW MEXICO is 12-2 ATS  L/14 off an upset loss as a home favorite. NM has covered 3 of their L/4 visits to the Blue Carpet.

CFB Home favorites like Boise State  - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are 49-93 ATS dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

Dallas hosts the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium to kick off NFL’s Sunday Night Football schedule. A lot of pundits believe that the Cowboys will continue their upward trajectory from last season, but I in my usual contrarian fashion expect some hiccups behind sophomore QB Prescott. I do however, believe the Giants to be a key contender in what should be a wide open NFC East battle. Last year, the Gmens QB Eli Manning  finally looked a little motivated last season  completing 63 percent of his passes for just over 4,000 yards and had a ratio of 26 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. In todays matchup according to my own power rankings he  matches up well against the Boysz offensive line and secondary, and should accumulate a hardy amount of yards through the air that will translate into an above average score count for the Giants. With the Cowboys RB Elliot probably out this week with a suspension, Prescott will not have an easy out if under continuous pressure which I'm betting he will be.  If if Elliot plays, it must also be noted that the Boyz will be without, Tight end Rico Gathers (concussion) and. Defensive end Damontre Moore (suspension).

Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Dallas. Cowboys are 1-8 ATS L/9 home openers. cowboys Garrett is 6-16 ATS as a division favorite and 3-10 ATS L/13 as a favorite of 5 points or less.DALLAS is 6-15 ATS  L/21 in games played on turf .

Play on the NY Giants to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Indians will attempt to extend their winning run to 18 games when they finish their  three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles this Sunday night. Tonight's starter for the red hot Indians Bauer owns a  8-0  record along with a 2.47 ERA in his L/10 starts. Despite of this streak , and while, everyone and his dog will be Cleveland tonight, I'll be looking in the opposite direction.

 It becomes very hard for a team to make runs like this without, having the other teams extremely motivated to take them down. Especially when that team has no pressure on them. It must be noted that Bauer despite of being in good form, has not liked facing the Orioles as is evident by his 0-3 record  along  with a bloated 6.75 ERA in four career starts . Meanwhile, Hellickson the Orioles, four career starts against the Indians, He is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA.HELLICKSON  team when he starts is 10-5  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line 190 to +175) like Baltimore - after allowing 2 runs or less 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 69-17  for a 80% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons and a perfect 9-0 100% conversion rate  this season.

MLB team like the Indians - red hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 15 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are just 19-38 for a go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Baltimore to cover +1.5 on the runline  1 unit reg selection

Pirates RH Ivan Nova (11-12, 4.11 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (11-7, 4.21).

Both these pitchers are currently not in top form, but Nova has looked better to me than Wacha has and  is a viable pitcher tp back here on a affordable runline price. Nova is also on extended rest and should be fresh here after 10 days off. I know the Cards are winning consistently, but their bats are not performing optimally, and look ready to fail, as they are 10-17  SU L/17 after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season, which has just happened.

The Cardinals are 0-16 L/16 on the runline when Michael Wacha starts as a home favorite after a quality start in his last start.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 on the runline

After last years less than desirable or expected results Arizona enters into this season with a chip on their shoulders, and will be primed for big opening day , vs the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Lions are a decent team, that are over rated in my opinion and were lucky to make the play offs last season . I know their stud QB Stafford just signed a lucrative contract, but its not like he has been a big winner in the NFL as he owns a sub par 51-61 SU record and a 45-65-2 ATS mark. With that said, I'm betting on the Cards pulling off the cover here , while bolstering their current 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS mark in this series and converting for the 10th time in their L/11 road openers.

It must be noted that the Lions have lost 19 of their L/24 vs the NFC West.Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC and have failed to cover 5 straight dating back to last season.

Play on the Arizona Cardinals to cover 1 unit reg selection

Atlanta had a great season last year, and made it to the Super Bowl, but imploded in that tilt and eventually lost . I'm betting they experience a bit of a let down here early in the season, and have problems disposing of a Chicago Bears team that will be marginally improved this season. In the past Super Bowl finalists have not done well in their opening game of the following season, going 2-15 SU/ATS in away games. It must also be noted that the Bears are 6-0 ATS in home openers a underdogs vs non divisional opposition. Meanwhile, Atlanta has failed to cover 5 of the L/6 in this series as favorites. Chicago has a good history at home in opening games, 23-10L/33 with only 3 of the losses coming by 7 pts or more and get the nod here to stay within the number.

NFL teams like the Bears -- team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games is 22-4 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Jets over hauled their team in the off season, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Many pundits have over done how bad the Jets will be this year as the drop off in talent if looked at closely is not that bad, and I'm sure with very little pressure on them may surprise the same pundits that are dismissing them, as irrelevant . Meanwhile, the team I'm not sold on is the Buffalo Bills, behind inconsistent QB Tyrod Taylor, especially here in this spot as 9 point chalk.

Historically speaking the Jets are 19-7 ATS as division road dogs, and 7-1 ATS as a road underdog in openers.

NFL team like the Jets  - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 ATS for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State must not be disrespected here vs a Arizona State team that looked weak defensively in week 1 vs New Mexico State, winning 37-31 but were outscored 18-7 in the last quarter. The Aztecs  have  won 22 of its last 25 games SU. while Arizona State has 1 victory over a team with a above .500 record since beating rival Arizona on November 21, 2015.

Rocky Long is 5-2 as a dog vs PAC12 opponents, while HC Graham of the Sun Devils is 1-4 ATS L/5 vs the Mountain West.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game.

Take the points with San Diego State 1 unit reg selection

Stanford (1-0) well rested and fresh returns to action from a one-week layoff after opening the season Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia, with a explosive one sided beat down of Rice. The Cardinal seeks to win a fourth straight against the Trojans (1-0). Meanwhile, USC had some early problems against Western Michigan but pulled away late for a DD win. Their D, especially the run D, looked a little porous allowing a whopping 263 yards and will be part of what I'm betting will be their failure to cover tonight vs Stanford.

 The Stanford Cardinal have a defense that I'm betting rivals that of Alabama. Call me crazy for saying that , but this group is razor sharp and extremely physical and will be the difference maker here today vs the USC Trojans.

Winning on the road is a key theme for the Cards.The Cardinal have taken 3 straight from the Trojans, and 7 of the last 9.Dating to 2007, the Cardinal have won four of five games at the Coliseum. USC is undefeated at the Coliseum since Helton took over as head coach midway through the 2015 season -- but also winless against Stanford at 0-2.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both teams are off lopsided easy wins in their week 1 matchups. Auburn lost a hard fought tilt to the Clemson last season by a 19-13, count , but I' betting their even better this season, and  are going to be hyped up about taking down the defending champs and get revenge for their loss to  last season. I'm betting that this game will be hard fought and that getting points will be golden for a team I have pegged as the most improved in the SEC this season.

AUBURN is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in road games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards.AUBURN is 34-19 ATS  after gaining 275 or more rushing yards. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games

CFB Road underdogs like Auburn - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons. Also CFB  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Clemson - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 38-12 ATS for a 76% conversion rate for bettors over a 10 year period. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Auburn - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 40-11 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada is getting a lot of accolades for staying close in a game vs Northwestern last week even though, their defense allowed over 500 yards and the home team to convert 26 first downs. If they are as porous this week, as last, which I think they will be, I'm betting their in big trouble vs the MACs best team. Last week against Northwestern the Wolfpack  only controlled the ball offensively  for just  21 minutes and turned the ball over twice during that game. Needless to say, from my standpoint , Nevada's performance was more smoke and mirrors than a top tier effort like it was being painted. Meanwhile, Toledo despite of starting slowly last week in a win, looked to put things together in the 2nd half, on route to a  blow out 47-13 victory and will now use that momentum to take down a over rated opponent in this spot. The Rockets had 24 first downs and 553 total yards in the game. Rinse in repeat here for a DD margin of victory.

Toledo 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 10-2 ATS L/12 after playing a game at home.TOLEDO is 21-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.

Play on Toledo to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rebels fell to Howard as a 45-point favorite at home last time out, the worst point spread loss in history. Meanwhile, Idaho took  an FCS opponent, notching a win vs  Sacramento, 28-6.  As far as the Howard/UNLV games goes, Howard must not be disrespected, as their HC Mike London  won a National championship with Richmond, and was able to recruit a very strong QB in Caylin Newton who is the brother of Cam Newton. The  UNLV D, was ugly, and the team on a whole. was caught looking ahead to greener pastures, which was in hindsight a mistake, that now has them  embarrassed and ready for redemption this week in Idaho. UNLV can score in bunches, and that is why they have a chance this week to stay very close. Last season these teams played each other tough, with Idaho pulling off a 33-30 win, and I'm expecting another hard fought battle this week, with the points in my humble betting opinion ending be golden.

IDAHO is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when the total is greater than or equal to 70.IDAHO is 8-20 ATS  L/28  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. HC Petrino is 6-15 ATS  L/21 after playing a non-conference game .

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Idaho - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 14-41 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.CFB  Road underdogs like UNLV  - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS L/54 opportunities for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNLV to cover 1 unit reg selection