Im one of these guys who believes Florida is over rated. You have to remember that this is a Gators side that did not play well against  South Carolina winning by a 38-24 count while failing to cover as 18 point favs  and also gave up a crap load full  of points in the 51-35 victory at Ole Miss. I know Texas A&M were soundly beaten by Alabama. But hey that was Alabama , so Im giving them a break . Note: Aggies HC Jimbo Fisher is 6-0 SU all-time when coming off a loss of more than 17 points. These teams have split their last four  meetings with the last game in 2017 ending  in a 19-17 A&M victory. With that said, I;ll take the points here in what Im betting will be a closely contested affair. 

Texas A&M are 15-3-3 ATS as conference home underdogs against opposition coming off a victory  of 14 or more points, including 12-1 ATS as underdogs of less than 15 points.

Take the the points with Texas A&M 

Both teams enter with 2-0 records overall and in ACC play. Virginia Tech despite of being short handed on a regular basis has found ways to win while North Carolina had  played twice since Sept 12 and looked average at best this past  Saturday in a  26-22 win at Boston College . The Hokies  lead the ACC (3rd nationally) with 319 yards rushing yards per game, behind Khalil Herbert  who leads the nation with a 156-yard per-game average. North Carolina leads the ACC, and the nation, in rushing defense at 54 yards per game. Strength against strength  has me envisioning a stalemate type of tilt that will be closely contested.   

VIRGINIA TECH is 15-5 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Virginia Tech has covered 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series. 

CFB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 75-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

The Lakers did not look like they were into the last game at all, while Butler and company came out with their balls to the walls , and essentially embarrassed the Lakers in the work ethic department. LEBron does not like to be made a fool of, and so far in these play offs when LAL has lost (3 times) they have bounced back in a big way and  have won those following tilts by an average of 13 points per game  , and overall each time they have won in these play offs they have seen at least  a14 point margin of victory. Remember the Lakers have done the same thing in the last two series losing 1 game before rolling to convincing efforts.

NBAFavorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 36-5 L/24 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.4 ppg. 

Play on the LA Lakers to win 

These teams record are the polar opposite of each other with the Packers at 3-0 and the Falcons at 0-3. Truth is though neither side is as good or bad as their records might indicate.  Bottom line here is the  Falcons behind star QB Ryan will be able  to move the ball fluently vs a  Packers defense that has allowed an NFL-worst 6.9 yards per play so far this season. I know Atlantas defence and coaching have looked atrocious from a defensive perspective blowing tow huge DD leads for losses, but getting points in this situation behind an explosive offense has me taking points here tonight. 

GREEN BAY is 8-20 ATS  in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6  or more yards/play since 1992.ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The  deep Niners rallied around backup QB Nick Mullens last week as the pivot was 25-of-36 for 343 yards  and was exceptional in key down situations. I cannot say the same about Carson Wentz of the Eagles. Traveling from East to west is not an easy task especially in a letdown state after a come from behind 23-23 OT tilt last week. Niners all the way here. 

The Eagles are  1-5 ATS L/6 seasons  as road dogs against NFC West opposition. 

NFL away teams, following an overtime tie like the Philadelphia Eagles – are 0-15 SU dating back 32 seasons. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 27-1 L/10 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at +12.8 ppg which qualifies under this side call. 

Play on San Francisco to cover 

Eastern Conference - NBA Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, FL

Playing without point guard Goran Dragic (plantar fasciitis) and center Bam Adebayo (neck/shoulder strain), two of its three best players Miami looked to be in trouble last time out and with these two key cogs out or at less than 100% again this Heat side is in trouble. The only reason why the Lakers only won buy 10 points last time out , was because the Heat enjoyed a 34-17 free-throw disparity and I can't see that repeating itself here today. 

With the smell of NBA championship in the air for James and Davis, its not a difficult decision for me to back them here again. 

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-73 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Bills built a 28-3 lead last week vs the Rams before running out of gas, and finally had to come from behind in their last drive of the game to come up with a win. Now winded and in a emotional letdown spot, Im betting the Raiders who will be primed to bounce back off a loss to  make a game out of this here in Vegas in their new diggs and get us the cover. 

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are just 43-81 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors. 

Raiders are 5-0 SU L/5 meetings in this series. 

Play on Las Vegas to cover 

Acquired from Jacksonville in the offseason, Foles took over in the third quarter at Atlanta last week and threw three touchdowns in the fourth as Chicago wiped out a 16-point deficit to win 30-26 and now the team feels confident and re-energized and are viable home underdogs here today.

NFL Road favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 19-49 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow gets little to no protection from his offensive line. The kid was sacked 8 times last week and the pressure he faces from DLs is fascinatingly ugly. This no 1 draft pick spends more time on his back than a Bunny Ranch  sub -contractor. After getting public money and being favored in both their games so far this season and falling flat on their faces, I wont be surprised if their upset again, and more importantly I really dont believe they should be chalk against anyone in the NFL just yet despite of the promise of their young pivot. Note: The Jags are 9-0-3 ATS against the AFC North while the Bengals are 0-4 ATS L/4 vs AFC south as hosts. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-20 L/37 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover 

 The Sooners (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) have won five consecutive conference titles and have reached the College Football Playoff for three consecutive seasons, but their ability to continue either of those streaks is in doubt after last week's 38-35 loss to Kansas State. Now in desperation mode, Im betting they will come out here ready to play, but the linesmakers knowing this and playing to public sentiment have over evaluated this line giving us value with the underdog. 

The series has been largely lopsided with the Sooners winning 20 of the last 21 meetings and 24 consecutive games in Ames since 1961.

But since Matt Campbell's arrival, the Cyclones have been competitive against Oklahoma. Each of the last four meetings has been decided by 10 or fewer points and Iowa State pulled off an upset at Oklahoma in 2017. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 4-28 L/5 seasons for a go against  88% conversion rate. 

CFB Road favorites (OKLAHOMA) - excellent offensive team (440 ot more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 33-69 ATS L/28 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

Play on Iowa State to cover

Arkansas' offense Im betting will flow   against Mississippi State and have more favorable results  than it did against Georgia's top tier D.  Meanwhile, Miss State off a huge win last week vs LSU will now find themselves in a letdown spot. With that said we have value with the Arkansas Razorbacks to cover . 

The Air Force Falcons have won eight consecutive games going back to last season, which matches Notre Dame for the nation's longest active winning streak. Navy has lost three consecutive games in Colorado Springs and Im betting if they win today it will not come easily. 

Niumatalolo is 7-16 ATS in road games after a bye week as the coach of NAVY

CFB Road favorites (NAVY) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 22-55 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Air Force to cover 

This SMU side deserves respect here vs Memphis  as they ride a 12-2 SU record that dates back to last season. This season they are 3-0 averaging 562 yards per game and 49 points. Note:  SMU HC  Sonny Dykes owns a 5-0 SU record  when coming off three wins-exact and get the nod again today.   SMU is 6-0 ATS  after playing a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. Dykes is 6-0 ATS  after playing 2 straight non-conference games as the coach of SMU.

CFB home team vs. the money line (SMU) - after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite, after the first month of the season are 33-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (SMU) - after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite are 40-5 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on SMU

CFB  home team vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 27-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Kansas State to cover 

Boston College behind HC Jeff Hafley  are off to a 2-0 start, including victories against  Duke and Texas State. With the Golden Eagles 6-1-1 ATS  as a conference home dog I looked closely at them to get us the cover today vs North Carolina .   Considering since game day, it will be three weeks since UNC last played with this being their first road game Im betting they will be rusty and less cohesive than they need to be vs a scarppy side giving us the edge we need with BC to cover at home as DD dogs. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

NC State's defense despite of some hickups had success pressuring the quarterback in the Wake Forest game, registering six sacks in that outing  and Im betting they can replicate that here today on their way to a cover vs a hyped 3-0  public favorite( Pittsburgh) The L/4 times that Pittsburgh found themselves at 3-0 they failed to cash for their backers. I know Pitts D, looks strong but NC States offense looks capable of keeping pace . 

Take the points with NC State to cover 

Thanks to recency bias of a 2-0 and  103-10 winning deficit to start their season BYU has been raised to its highest bar in seasons. However, a natural letdown is expected by me vs  a Skip Holtz side that must not be underestimated in its ability to stay within the 24 point plus line . Holtz as a  Road Underdog is 23-9 ATS L/32 for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.  

Louisiana Tech can really make a game fast and their pace right now is at  24.8 seconds per play.  The  offense has run 90% of plays through the 10 formation, and have gone to the air in  60% of those downs and overall  ranked top 20 through two games in passing success rate behind the arm of Luke Anthony. When your looking to back a underdog like this I truly have always believed that that teams needs to be offensively efficient  with a quick strike ability, and we have that  with LA Tech. 

BYU s 0-7 ATS as double-digit favorite when playing off back-to-back wins against an opponent  coming off a double-digit victory like LA Tech. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

I really feel comfortable taking points with the Chiefs . You have to remember Mahomes has  in his pro football career never lost a game in the month of September , going 9-0 SU  and must be respected getting points here vs a huge public favorite in Baltimore. 

Baltimore is 0-10 ATS as a single-digit favorite when coming off consecutive SUATS victories.

Chiefs’ 11-0 ATS mark away off consecutive wins when facing AFC.

KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

Saints lost to Vegas last time out, which to some was surprising.  I was not surprised after an emotional win vs Tom Brady in week one that  had the Saints  in a let down state vs aa Raiders side that wanted to make a big impression out of the gate in their new diggs.  Now Im betting  QB Drew Bress will be ready to bounce back here against a Green Bay team getting alot of media play after huge offensive outputs in their first two tilts.  It must be noted that Saints QB Brees is  24-10 ATS in his career in non-division games when coming off a non-division defeat  and the Saints are a perfect  8-0 SUATS in their  last eight home games on Sunday night football. 

Payton is 20-10 ATS  against NFC North division opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Payton is 34-17 ATS off a non-conference game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Payton is 28-13 ATS  off a road loss as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

NFL team against the total (GREEN BAY) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in September games are 18-47 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans to cover 

  Seattle QB Russell Wilson has looked explosive in the early going this season and Dallas has been less than sizzling and that  in part is why we getting an off line to bet into here with the underdog Cowboys.  It also  must be noted that the Seahawks despite of their offensive fireworks behind a deep flow offense has  been blitzed defensively and  out-gained in each of their two wins  as is evident by allowing a whopping  970 yards . Key to this game: Dallas leads the NFL with 41 plays of 10 yards or more through the first two games. Seattle has allowed the most plays of 10 yards or more with 47. Cowboys are a live dog based on current status of both sides real data. 

DALLAS is 16-4 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. (They came back big last time and carry that momen tun into this tilt)

McCarthy is 14-4 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFLHome favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-25 ATS L/37 years for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLUnderdogs or pick (DALLAS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas to cover

The Bengals have had success for their betting backers   in this series covering 10 straight times and get my support here again today.PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Im not liking what I see from the Eagles so far, and according to my power rankings this game should be closer to the FG thus giving us a line advantage edge. 

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills - a team previously known for having a defense-first reputation now look to have an offense to go with their defense and good easily be in my humble opinion dark horse for a super bowl win. Don't laugh to loud, but it took him some time but Allen after looking NFL ready in his final College campaign with Wyoming is finally coming of age after a slow start to his career as is evident by his  729 yards passing, which ranks the  Bills  first in yards passing, third in yards gained and are tied for sixth in scoring 58 points. Im a believer and will take my stand with them today at home as short favs. 

BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS  against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival are 2-27 L/10 seasons for a go against  93% conversion rate. 

Play on Buffalo to win

BYU started fast this season against a Navy team that was not prepared to play. The final 55-3 score was indicative of a side with more practice vs one that did not even take part in full contact drills. So Im not going to take alot from the Mormons game 1 win and crown them a top tier side just yet. Now after more than two weeks rest, BYU may also exhibit some rust, vs a well coached Troy team. Note: BYU is just 2-9 ATS L/11 with rest. It must be noted that Troys HC was the offensive coordinator  at Auburn and   a former quarterback coach at Troy and knows how to push a offense into warp speed.

BYU is 23-41 ATS  after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

The Trojans, are 10-0 ATS when coming off a non-conference win which was the case in the DD victory vs Midd Tenn State last time out. 

Play on Troy to cover 

There is blood in the water and the Lakers are the  proverbial sharks . The Lakers very much respect this hard nosed never say die Denver team, and they know they need to step up here and finish them off. Im betting we see the core of this LAL side at their very best and for exhaustion to finally hamper the Nuggets as this will be their 19th play off game this season. Note: Reports on Anthony Davis ankle seem to be positive at this point and he is expected to be good to go. 

DENVER is 4-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%  or better of their shots are 39-3 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.8 ppg which qualifies under a spread situation as well. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Gamecocks are just  2-9 ATS   in the last eleven series meetings at home, and Im betting against them here today, as Tennessee according to my numbers should be closer to -6 favs. Yes even here on the road. Note: The Vols won their final 6 games of last season, and 17 starters back look like a viable bet vs a downtrending S.Carolina side that is 3-12 SU L/15 as a home dog. 

TENNESSEE is 18-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB team (S CAROLINA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.\

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Duke brought in Trevor Lawrences backup from Clemson (Chase Brice) in the offseason, and the offense has sputtered accumulating just  19 points and two ugly losses. The duke D, ha also been horrendous allowing 825 yards in the two defeats, and Im betting things wont get much better today vs Virginia.  

The Cavaliers have owned this series of late winning 5 straight SU/ATS and considering Dukes 1-7 SU record in their L/8 ACC battles, it wont be a hard decision to bet against them here this Saturday. 

Play on Virginia to cover 

The undefeated No. 14 Bearcats host the 22nd-ranked Black Knights on Saturday. Cincinnati has lost 15 of its last 16 games against ranked teams and today Im betting if they get a win, it wont come so easily. 

ARMY is 5-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1992.

CFB  road team vs. the money line (ARMY) - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 20-7 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover 

Liberty has just 9 returning starters and lost their  leading rusher from last season , as well as their quarterback and top receiver in addition to its 3 top tacklers on D. I know Florida International also lost some experience from last season, but their defense now bolstered by the return of  of twin Dames brothers make them a tough group to move the ball against. In my opinion we have value with the underdog to cover. 

CFB road team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 32-8 ATS L/28 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Florida Int to cover 

Pittsburgh is 2-0 so far with wins vs Austin Peay and Syracuse. Meanwhile, Louisville was beaten by Miami Fl,last time out  but proved that they can score and are more than capable of hanging with the Panthers here today. Note: Pittsburgh as home favs , are less than a consistent bet as they sport a lowly  8-15-1 ATS L/24 record. Also Cardinal HC  Scott Satterfield is 17-4 SU when coming off a loss, including 8-0 ATS when off a double-digit ATS loss.

Play on the Louisville Cards to cover 

Georgia Tech as road favs did not sit well with me  knowing the school is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine away  trips when favored.  GTech is up-trending but laying wood with them on the road is not a recipe for success this early in their development. I know Syracuse is a side that no one loves these days, but now in desperation mode Dino Babers Orange Im betting come out here and leave everything on the field and get us the cover. 

Syracuse has covered 3 of their L/4 at home as 7 or more point dogs. 

CFB team (GEORGIA TECH) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 10+ PPG, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 4-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Auburn has owned this overall series but have not played each other  since 2015 . Dating back to  2009 these teams have played 3 times.  Kentucky's last victory in this series in 2009 ended  a 15-game winning streak in the series for the Tigers. Both games played since that game were decided by a field goal and Im betting on another close affair here. I know Auburn is a top tier SEC team, but Bob Stoops group is ascending quickly and after looking at their recruiting class could be on the verge of something big. 

Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Play on Kentucky to cover

Midd Tenn State looked bad in its first two games of the season, while 2-0 UTSA has looked very good converting on 11 of 11 red zone opportunities. With these sides operating at the opposite  end of the performance spectrum its an easy decision for me to take the hungrier uptrending side playing at home. Key will be a Road runners ground game thats cranking out  5.6 ypc. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (UTSA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at 17. 

CFB home team (UTSA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season is 30-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

Play on UTSA to cover 

The Lakers played like crap in game 3, emotionless, and with very little heart. Im betting now they have learned their lesson unlike the 'jazz and Clippers and will come out here with a huge effort  and get us the cover vs the Nuggets here tonight. . LA has covered a six-point spread in nine of its 10 playoff wins and gets the nod again. 

LA LAKERS are 20-7 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.DENVER is 4-13 ATS  after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Miami has started their season at 0-2 despite of a big game vs Buffalo last week where they almost pulled off the upset.  Note: QB Fitzpatrick  is 7-0-1 ATS  in his last eight games as a underdog when coming off consecutive losses. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have played like their hair is on fire in their first two games,  behind franchise QB Minshew and could easily be energetically drained  making them susceptible to being upset as favs.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - poor defense from last season - allowed 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-24 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate. 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

The Celtics are now trending upward and after game 2 it became evident that they are the better side in this series vs the Miami Heat. With Hayward back in the lineup, this game to me looks like a slam dunk.Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

The Lakers have now experienced the effects of a never say die Nuggets side, that gave them a scare last time out. You can bet the Lakers won't let their guard down in game 3, and make sure that they play a start to finish game. You have to remember, that the Nuggets despite of being young have played alot of catchup hoops during these play offs and coming from behind 3-1 in two straight series, while making many come from behind runs. While fans might be  loving the exploits of this underdog group, they maybe underestimating what it does to a teams energy levels, and  will that their exploits will eventually come back and bite them, and thats what I expect to see today. Partial exhaustion, and also in letdown mode after losing with no time left on the clock last time out (105-103), will have the Nuggets come out flatter here than expected. 

 Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games.Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Las Vegas Raiders debut at Allegiant Stadium this Monday night will come  against the explosive New Orleans Saints who took out Tom Brady and company last week. .The Saints now in a letdown spot are  0-5 ATS on the Monday Night road  tilts when coming off a victory.  Im betting a very motivated Raiders side to play lights-out here and get us a cover as home dogs. 

Play on the LV Raiders to cover 

Seattle looked amazing last week and really exploded in their win vs Atlanta. But it must be noted that HC Carrol  is is just 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a home favorite against AFC East foes when  they are off a victory. Meanwhile, Belichick is 22-9 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND and must not be disrespected here this week. 

SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS  off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1992. Seattle is 1-4 ATS L/5 at home in this series as favs. 

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 2-24 ATS L/37 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the New England Patriots to cover

The Vikings lost last week and now they are in a bounce back mode. It must be noted that the Minnesota Vikings are 19-3-1 ATS in games off a loss under HC Mike Zimmer when facing non-division opposition. This is two good of a team to lay down again this week and get my support getting points vs a good but slightly over rated Colts team. 

 Zimmer is 30-19 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MINNESOTA.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-3 ATS L/37 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

 QB Matt Ryan played a great game last despite of his team losing to Seattle,. He connected on 37-of 54 for 450 yards and two TDs  and according to my O-line/QB vs D-line/secondary power rankings matches ups  well in this matchup vs Dallas.  

Dallas’ 0-7 ATS  as non-division home chalk of 7 or less. points . 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 21-3 ATS L/37 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

 Wake Forest got blasted last week  37-13 vs Clemson , and despite of the result played decently and now have a game under their belts. . This  will the  opener  for North Carolina State after having to cancel their  Virginia Tech tilt on Sept. 5 due to Covid problems. Wake Forest in game time experience will have an edge here today vs a Wolfpack side that they have beaten 3 straight times SU. 

Wake Forest HC Dave Clawson i in conference games in his career,   5-0 ATS as a underdog of 3 or less points. 

CFB Road underdogs (WAKE FOREST) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, returning an inexperienced QB and 5 or less offensive starters are 39-12 L/28 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Forgive me if I dont buy into the Miami  hype. Ya the Canes took game 1 of their season against UAB , but make no mistake the uptrending Cardinal are a much more potent opponent than they faced last week and in their own diggs in front of 18000 fans Im betting Louisville take control of this game and get the cover. Note The Cardinal also have the added motivation of revenge for a 52-27 loss to Miami last season. 
 

UM is 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a dog in road openers. Louisville is 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

NCAAF home team vs. the money line (LOUISVILLE) - after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 32-7 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average margin clicking in at +19.8 ppg. 

Play on the Louisville Cardinal to cover 

UL-Monroe had their butts handed to them in a  37-7 loss at Army last week. While  Texas State  lost in OT by a  51-48 count  to UTSA. I know the Warhawks did not look good, but Army looks explosive and must not be disrespected . With that said, despite of Texas State looking much improved this season, that OT game last week will have them in a letdown spot . Note: The Warhawks have won 4 straight tilts vs   UTSA Bobcats who have dropped 6 straight road games, 8 of their last 9 vs. FBS schools, and 5 straight overall. Texas State is just  2-11 overall  vs. FBS teams under HC Jake Spivital and are fade material this week and 1-13 L/14 as visitors. 

Play on UL Monroe to cover

  Duke lost by 14-points last week at Notre Dame and looked very average the entire time vs a Irish squad that looked like they had alot of rust.  Today against new HC Jeff Hafley's BC Im betting things wont come much easier. The Golden Eagles return 9    starters on a defense that is up trending in my rankings .  I know the BC  offense no longer has  RB A.J. Dillon   and QB Anthony Brown in the lineup, but  they look good with  QB Phil Jurkovec in  from Notre Dame.  He will operate behind a big strong O-line that must be respected. 

Duke is 0-13 ATS as conference home favs of 17 points or less. Eagles are 11-1 ATS as road dogs of 10 or less points. The visitor in this series has cashed 4 straight times.

CFB Home favorites (DUKE) - after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on Boston College to cover 

No.\11 ranked OSU is an explosive side behind RB Chubba Hubbard , WR Tylan Wallace , QB Spencer Sanders  and enter this season with a huge amount of experience as 18 returning starters  come back for what should be a peak year for the school. Meanwhile Tulsa, owns a D. that returns just 4 starters. That inexperienced D Im betting will get completely ripped apart today. Note: Oklahoma State HC Mike Gundy  in non- conference action is 12-0 ATS  L/12 overall.  

OKLAHOMA ST is 18-6 ATS  as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.

 Golden Hurricane  have lost and failed to cover the last 4 meetings in this series  and have been horrendous in  Big 12 meetings losing 23 of 24 tilts straight up while covering just  6 times . 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

The Nuggets have had an exhausting play offs and are off a hard fought 7 game series vs the Clippers where they made several comebacks , which in themselves were exhausting . Now here against a well rested Lakers  side and most probably in a letdown spot after their huge win in game 7 Im going to fade Denver out of the gate in game 1 and go against recency bias. You can also bet the star veterans of this Lakers side are also wide awake and ready to compete after watching the Nuggets beat up on a Clippers side that was expected to battle them here in the Conference finals. DENVER is 4-13 ATS after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  

Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.

Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Clippers had a huge DD lead in the 3rd quarter of game 6 of this series, when the Nuggets went on a 17-0 run and than finally over took the Clippers. Shock and awe was the story behind the comeback, and now here we are with the Clippers being favored again. It must be noted that the Nuggets have played a post season tilt every two days for four straight weeks and five of those were elimination games. Man this Nuggets  team has to be tired and with that said  Im taking the better team here the Clippers who maybe actually finally understanding their opponents are not quitters. Kawhi Leonard is the nuclear option here today, and Im betting he takes advantage of  Nuggets exhaustion. 

NBA Favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 49-21 L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate .

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Coming off a 7 game series will see the Celtics  in a letdown spot, and most probably exhausted as well. The rested Heat are no pushovers and must be respected here getting points. Miami won the most recent meeting on Aug. 4 in the bubble and gets my support in game 1. 

Note:Teams like Boston that take Game 7 are 32-45 (41%) straight up in Game 1 of the following series.

MIAMI is 8-1 ATS  in all playoff games this season.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Titans reached the AFC championship game last season thanks to a second-half surge that followed a shutout loss in Denver in which coach Mike Vrabel benched Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. For whatever reason it seems that this Titans franchise has not faired well vs the Broncos and have now lost the last 4  road meetings in this series straight up dating back to 1992. 

Note: the key to the Titans offence is Derrick Henry who was the NFL's rushing leader last season with 1,540 yards, but he has struggled in two games against Denver. Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec. 11, 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That easily was Henry's worst game last season. I know the Titans now want payback, but it will not come easily vs a side that maybe vastly under rated by the linesmakers here tonight with QB Drew Lock under center. 

Remember when this line opened the Broncos were 3 point favs and now its turned all the way around to Tennessee being favored. Just to much of swing in my humble opinion and now Im taking the Broncos plus the points.

Denver to cover 

The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy, with quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott leading an offense that was one of the NFL's best last season and now tonight in this big Sunday nighter Im betting they get the road win. Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.  

Play on Dallas to cover 

SF is a fine team, but could easily be in hangover mode here after last seasons Super Bowl loss. It must be noted the defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season as a dog or favorite of 8 or less points if they are facing a division opponent are 0-10 ATS L/32 seasons. Also Arizona has played the 49ers tough of late covering the last 3 meetings and are much improved side. Once again its important to note that Game One division underdogs who won eight or fewer games last season are 39-10-1 ATS. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

In each of  HC Arians his past 11 seasons  , his teams have ranked in the Top Ten passing attacks in football , and now with Future Hall of Famer Tom Brady under center that will happen again . Today against a New Orleans side that has a tendency of starting slow as is evident by a 0-6 ATS first game record the L/6 years I look for Brady and the Bucs offence to be fluent enough to cover vs another  future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees . Note: Brady is 36-16-1 ATS NFL career mark as an underdog and gets my support getting points in this key spot play.

Tampa Bay to cover 

In game 5  as has been the case a few times in this series the Clippers have showed their superiority vs the Nuggets, before falling asleep at the proverbial wheel and allowing the Nuggets to mount a comeback. Now knowing the Nuggets will not easily be beaten down, Im expecting Kawhi Leonard and company to come out here with a huge effort and cancel any hopes the Nuggets have of taking this to a game 7. Note: The Nuggets are averaging just 96.3 PPG in their three losses which shows me that when the Clippers are focused the Nuggets are in trouble. Im betting the Clippers will be very focused in this one. You have to remember that the Clippers have won   18 of 20 quarters in this series and a compete start to finish 4 quarter win effort is not out of the question. 

LA CLIPPERS are 7-0 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less this season with a the average combined margin of victory coming by 23.4 ppg.

DENVER is 4-15 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Clippers to cover

“It’s very challenging to prepare for a Gregg Williams defense because of just all the things that he has,” Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said. “Not just the different calls but the different packages that he has with his players.”

This statement is key to how Im looking at this game, which makes getting points according to my projections an important factor. 

Jets’ own a money making  16-5-2 ATS record in road openers, including 5-0 ATS when seeking revenge in a division tilt.

Jets QB Josh Allen  is  3-5 ATS in his career  as a home favorite in the NFL action, and is getting far to much respect here on this line.

NY Jets to cover 

Both these teams up-trended last season behind new coaches.  This is a  rematch from last year’s 38-21 U of L victory vs WKU   in Nashville.  It must be noted that the Hilltoppers owns a  5-0-1 ATS Game One record and have cashed  9 of their L/12 ATS  as dogs of 12 or more points, and are a profitable  8-3 ATS with non-conference revenge. Meanwhile,  the Cardinal are 0-4 ATS as hosts vs a side with  non-conference revenge, and a lowly 2-7 ATS  as chalk  of  11  or more points. . Louisville is  just 1-9 ATS as DD home fav  against opposition  that won 5 or more games  last season.

The Hilltoppers' defense features defensive end DeAngelo Malone, the 2019 Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year. Malone helped the Hilltoppers limit opponents to 337.8 yards per game last season, ranking No. 30 nationally. Im betting on this veteran group to key on D, and for them to factor hugely into us getting  the cover. 

Western Kentucky to cover 

The Ramblin’ Wreck, go into this game against Florida State having now  covered six straight in this series, and have a recent history of road dog success in ACC tilts recording a  5-1-2 ATS mark in their last eight tilts. Georgia Tech returns 19 starters from last years sub par season, but after changing up their system from pound the ball on the ground football to run and gun football, Im betting their now more experienced and ready to uptrend vs a Florida State side, that still does not instill confidence after a 6-7 season last year. FLORIDA ST is 1-9 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia tech to cover 

Kansas State is in a rebuilding zone with their offense , as their entire offensive line from last  year is gone with only three returning  Offensive starters in the lineup . Meanwhile, Arkansas State has almost their entire lineup back on  offense. Arkansas state showed their fortitude in a loss to Memphis to start their season, by a 37-24 count and will now not have to deal with rust like KState. Anderson is 15-6 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of ARKANSAS ST. Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. S-Belt.

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

The Clippers have looked very good in this series and sometimes peculiarly disinterested. They are the superior team, but Denver are no pushovers, and now feeling like they having nothing left to lose and on the verge of elimination, Im betting that they hang here today and make life difficult for the Clippers. I still cant get the 31-14 lead  the Clippers had early in the second quarter of Game 4  when Denver exploded and came back to tie the game. This Nuggets team are not quitters. Take the points. 

Malone is 47-27 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of DENVER.

Play on Denver to cover 

UAB has already played one game, putting up 45 points in a victory vs C.Arkansas and that is big factor here tonight against a higher tier team that has some rust , and that looked flat at the end of late season losing 3 straight. With only 13000 ppl expected home field advantage wont be a factor here. Canes Diaz is just 2-7 ATS as a favorite, including 0-5 ATS when laying 8 or more points. 
 

 HC Clark is 18-7 ATS  in the first half of the season as the coach of UAB.

Play on UAB to cover 

MLB Road teams against a run line of (+1.5, -210) to (-1.5, -255) (NY YANKEES) - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 2-35 L/23 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto on the RL /ML

The defending NBA champion Raptors have already shown that they wont go down here without a fight and after being  down 2-0  to the Celtics after two games came storming back to tie the series before an ugly effort in game 5. HC Nick Nurse knows how to make adjustments and after that last humiliation, you bet he will have his team ready to compete. 

Raptors are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 point. 

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Celtics had the leagues 4th most efficient offense this season, but last time out they were in a horrendous down slope with their shooting going 7/35 from downtown, for a ugly 20% conversion rate. I will give Torontos HC Nick Nurse alot of respect for his teams turnaround in this series, but Im still betting the Celtics will bounce back here after that down effort last time out. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more ) this season.  BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

NBA  Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 172-63 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Miami is on the verge of moving on vs a Bucks side that refuses to change their non opera-table  game plan. Down 3-0 their stubbornness will be the proverbial death of the Bucks here today.  Bet on the Miami Heat moving on and covering. 

MIAMI is 7-0 ATS  in all playoff games this season.

MILWAUKEE is 1-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season

Giannis Antetokounmpo is downgraded to "?" Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he plays he will be less than 100%. 

Play on Miami to cover

Nothing comes easy for UTEPs football program as is evident by  an 11-game losing streak and a current 2-34 SU run. Seeing them as TD favs did not sit well with me , even though they are playing lower tier competition.With that said, Im betting on a   Lumberjacks side that return a solid core on offense at key skill positions against a UTEP side that just does not have a tradition of winning. 

Play on SFA to cover 

These are two explosive offensive teams who were on great runs to end last season clash today on a tilt that Im betting will be much closer than the linesmakers estimate . Arkansas State has returning starters in key offensive categories, and even have their OC back. Memphis also has key guys back on offence, but new play callers on the sidelines, and one key absence ,Kenneth Gainwell (2000 all purpose yards, 16 TDS) out of the backfield which could be an issue here early on for the Tigers . 

CFB road team vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 450 or more total yards/game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 24-12. L/28 seasons for a 63% conversion rate which gives credence to to spread bet here getting points. 

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

There is blood in the water, and the Celtics are the proverbial sharks here today. With no Kawhi Leonard in the lineup the defending champion Raptors are in a trouble against a very hungry opponent, that I personally believe is more talented. BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70%) this season and get the nod here again.BOSTON is 10-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or less this season.BOSTON is 19-3 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The Knights are replacing some key  weapons, on both sides of the ball, and the defense is looking vulnerable,I know Middle Tenn State did not play. well last season, but they do have some key returning starters on offense back and should be able to make Army work hard here.  Army as favorites are  just 18-33-2  since 2005, failing to cover by just under three points per game on average and in  season openers, the Cadets own a money burning 4-11 ATS (26.6%) mark. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 35-9 L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Middle Tenn State 

Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

This may not be do or die for Milwaukee, but they pretty well know as a team that if they lose again today, that their season for all intensive means is over. So with that said, Im betting on team Giannis and his gigantic ego to come out here in desperation mode and to get us a victory and more importantly the cover. 

MILWAUKEE is 25-11 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 12-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, on Friday nights are 52-20 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Denver after taking part in a grueling 7 game series, are now on tired legs coming into this series vs a fresh Clippers team that will be motivated to get a win and get the ball rolling on moving on to the NBA finals. Im betting on the fresher more talented and experienced side to get the job done here in convincing fashion. 

DENVER is 7-19 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. LA CLIPPERS are 20-11 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

NBA team vs the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 80 points or less are 24-4 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.4 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 5-47 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.2 ppg. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Southern Miss has had to replace key components of its D, this off season, and already were having problems with their pass defence  last season ranking a  lowly 122nd in the nation. What Im betting on here tonight id for the South Alabama to take advantage of the Golden Eagles depleted secondary , and keep this game closer than the linesmakers predict. 

S ALABAMA is 19-8 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.

Play on South Alabama to cover 

Play on UAB to cover 

The Miami Heat took game one of their  Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Milwaukee Bucks with 115-104 win on Monday night, thanks in part to lousy charity stripe shooting (14-26) which was an anomaly. Milwaukee has not really faced much adversity in the play offs so far, but now they must adjust to top tier competition, and Im betting they will do just that here today behind the  big ego of Giannis. The Heat work at a lower pace , and like the half court game which does not always suit the Bucks, but HC Budenholzer can and will speed this tilt up with line adjustments, and force Miami to run with them, which in turn will get the Bucks to the promised land in game 2. 

MIAMI is 11-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season.MIAMI is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Budenholzer is 45-24 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Jamal Murray’s has been the catalyst for the sudden explosiveness of the Nuggets offence and that  has changed the complexion of this series, which now bodes well for  Denver  in this deciding Game 7 tilt. I also like the bench depth that the Nuggets have with Jokic and Mitchell and give them a strong chance at advancing. 

UTAH is 5-13 ATS vs. division opponents this season. UTAH is 5-13 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season. Malone is 20-8 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER.

NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - after scoring 105 points or more in a win over a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to win 

Miami owned the Pacers in thier last series, and matchup very well vs the Bucks in this series.  This Heat squad is a top-five rebounding side as is evident by a 51.2% rebounding rate, and this will be key to them slowing down the Bucks proficient offense. Im betting on the Heat trying to slow this game down, and grind away at the Bucks flow, which will prove a difficult obstacle to a Bucks side that operates optimally at a high pace. 

 MIAMI is 18-7 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS  after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more this season.

MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasonsMIAMI is 6-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons.

Miami to cover 

Chicago is the superior side, but this is just to many points to lay with them. Value with Indiana.

CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS ( after 3 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.


Underdogs (INDIANA) - after allowing 70 points or more in 5 straight games against opponent after allowing 75 points or more in 5 straight games. are 58-25 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Mercury aims for a third straight win on Sunday against the Minnesota Lynx at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla. Im betting on the momentum of the Mercury in this spot. PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

 MINNESOTA is 0-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

LA scored  154 points in regulation last time out , and the Clippers have scored 130 in three straight. Thats a combination of careless defence by the Mavs and some amazing shooting by the Clippers. However, all great runs must come to end, and for me I feel the Clippers proverbial engine after igniting at a high level is over heating and ready for a energy regression. With the likes of Doncic in the lineup for Dallas they remain dangerous threats, and wont be intimidated. With that said, Ill take the points. 

LA CLIPPERS are 2-13 ATS in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

DALLAS is 32-17 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.DALLAS is 25-12 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Carlisle is 40-15 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of DALLAS.

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 8-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 60-25 ATS L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play Dallas Mavs 

 The  Austin Peay  Governors are being underestimated here today. Austin Peay core for success is a ultra physical defense, having allowed only 104 yards per game last year while forcing nearly a fumble per game . Also last year when they played Central Arkansas the Governors  dominated the line of scrimmage for most of the game.  However, they  allowed two big plays late in the game and eventually lost.In last years tilt, of 15 total drives Central Arkansas  they only got into the red zone  twice, with one of the attempt starting at the Austin Peay 21-yard line. This year despite of new faces on the sidelines and under center and at the running back position Austin Peay are talented enough to hang here, and Im betting new HC Marquase Lovings formations and under rated coaching ability will get us  cover in this spot. Note: There are also expected Thunder showers today and some wind , which will greatly help Austin Peay get us a cover.

Austin Peay to cover 

Harden and company were on their way to a 3-1 series lead vs the Thunder last time out, but blew a DD lead. Now out looking for redemption I expect a herculean start to finish effort from the Rockets here vs a team that Im betting their superior to. 

HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 season. HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS  in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 34-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.4 ppg which qualifies under a spread bet scenario. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 29-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Houston to cover 

Dallas has dropped two straight games by a combined seven points since beating Washington in overtime last Friday and Im betting on another close one here with the underdog Fever with the edge.

Stanley is 3-15 ATS  on Saturday games in all games he has coached since 1997. 

DALLAS is 2-10 ATS  after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or higher over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA Favorites (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a losing record are 35-11 ATS for a 76% conversion rate. 

INDIANA is 6-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Indiana to cover 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 5 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Dallas now has the Clippers complete attention, after upsetting LAC in OT last time out behind a amazing performance from Doncic. Now in a letdown spot for Dallas, Im expecting the sleeping giant known as Kawhi Leonard and company to come out here on fire and stop the Mavs cold. 

LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 18-5 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 19-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against  conversion rate! 

NBA Underdogs (DALLAS) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game) after 42+ games, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

Indiana is now in desperation mode as they look to avoid elimination. There are enough quality characters and talent in this Pacers lineup to make the Heat work hard here today and to make sure they dont go down without a harddcore fight.

MIAMI is 4-15 ATS in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more this season.

Heat are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.

Heat are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.

Pacers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.

Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Play on Indiana to cover 

Nothing comes easy for the Mystics, and covering as a underdog it something that they are not equipped to do with consistency with their current lineup and lack of motivation. After 9 straight losses that is obvious. Ill take the points here. 

Mavericks young star Luka Doncic rolled his left ankle for the second time in this series last time out, and now things could easily go down hill quickly for the Mavs here in todays tilt vs the Clippers. Even if he does play today I doubt he is 100% and that will be a big problem for his team, as he is the keystone of their offence. We still have not seen the Clippers at their best, but now smelling proverbial blood in the water, they should be ready to roll mercilessly. 

Rivers is 38-19 ATS in non home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) as the coach of LA CLIPPERS.

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Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Damian Lilliard is not 100%(finger injury) , and thats not a good omen as the Lakers look like they have woken up from their bubble slumber.Los Angeles limited eighth-seeded Portland to 8-of-29 shooting from 3-point range and Lillard hit just 1 of 7 attempts and that trend is worrisome for the Blazers vs what is the better team on paper. 

PORTLAND is 6-16 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

Oklahoma City outshooting the Rockets from the field (44.3% – 41.8%), and just a sight uptick in their 3 point shooting Im betting will help them cover here today in desperation mode vs a Houston side that is due for some major regressions especially on defense. 

Thunder are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Thunder are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Oklahoma city to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, F
The Heat have smuthered the Pacers with defense, allowing just 100.5 points per game and 11.0 3-pointers per game and Im betting nothing changes here today.The Pacers have been outplayed at both ends of the court as is evident by allowing Miami to shoot 48.4 percent overall and make 15.5 3-pointers per game, data that ranks them third and tied for fourth among all teams through two games. Rinse and repeat with the Heat. 

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102  or more PPG) after 42+ games are 192-124 L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Lynx are viable bets for a third consecutive victory, as they go against a  Mercury side that Im betting they will send to their third loss in a row on Friday night at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla. Ride the momentum of the Lynx getting points. 

 MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

Minnesota has won 5 of the L/6 meetings in this series and the last 3 most recent meetings. 

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The Mavericks own the No. 1 offense in the league and produced the highest offensive rating in NBA history, and have proved they can keep track with another fast paced offensive juggernaut the LA Clippers. I know the Clippers rep, but the Mavericks appear to be the better team through two games and have   scored 118 points and 114 points in their first two post season tilts , keeping their offensive averages alive and because of their ability to score and keep pace with any team in the NBA are viable underdogs in this spot.LA CLIPPERS are 5-16 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.Clippers are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

Philadelphia has given their all, but their body language at the end of game 2 tells me they already feel defeated, and that will translate on the scoreboard Im betting here again today. 

PHILADELPHIA is 4-16 ATS  in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

 BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  in the first round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons.BOSTON is 15-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. 

BOSTON is 23-10 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 29-10 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Mitchell Jazz’s All-Star guard led his side to a Game 2 victory on Wednesday by picking apart the Denver defense and finishing with 30 points (on just 14 shots) and eight assists. With Denver banged up  with Barton leaving the bubble to rehab his knee,   Gary Harris’ very questionable to return from a hip injury, Im betting Mitchell and company have the edge in game 3, especially with   Mike Conley Jr. probable to return for Friday’.

 Jazz are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

UTAH is 18-6 ATS  in road games off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog since 1996.

Snyder is 34-17 ATS  in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days as the coach of UTAH.

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Everything continues to be all systems go for the Seattle Storm, who look to further their best start in franchise history and win their 10th consecutive game Thursday night when they face the Indiana Fever. However, this many points has value attached to it. 

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I do expect the thunder to bounce back from their ugly game 1 performance a 123-108 loss, but this is still a bad matchup for the Thunder vs a explosive side like the Rockets. Harden reins supreme again, and the Rockets who are the superior side in this matchup prevail and cover.  You can see by this comment how confounded the Thunder are: Quote:“It’s a different team,” Thunder point guard Chris Paul said. “You play a certain way the whole season, and then you’ve got a team that switches everything. It’s Game 1. We’ve got to figure it out. That’s why they are who they are. They play totally different than any other team in the league.” End Quote:

HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS  after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more this season.

Play on Rockets to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 2 - Orlando, FL

The Pacers had a upbeat performance in game 1 off their bench, hitting 56% of their open shots, and today I now expect their stars to standup after a lower tier performance in game 1. 

INDIANA is 13-4 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

MIAMI is 17-36 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Pacers to cover

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 2 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Doncic is a confident competitor with experience . His résumé includes championships and MVPs earned with Real Madrid and the Slovenian national team at the highest levels in Europe. This kid despite of his lack of NBA play off experience  is still capable of giving the Clippers some matchup problems.

DALLAS is 51-33 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.DALLAS is 23-12 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

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Rockies starter Castellani threw four scoreless innings in his debut at Seattle on Aug. 8, and allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings against the Texas Rangers on Friday. Castellani (0-0, 1.04 ERA) has struck out 10 and walked three in his two starts. He gets my support here to keep his team in this game, and for us to cash a ticket on the runline. 

MLB Road favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +160 to +115) (HOUSTON) - good team, outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, after allowing 1 run or less 2 straight games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate! 

Play on the Rockies on the runline 

HC Brett Brown and company proved they want this to be a physical series, and thats the kind of basketball they played in game 1 losing. a-hard fought 109-101 decision that they lead going into the 3rd quarter. Quote: We’ve been beaten up and now is our moment,” coach Brett Brown said. “Now is our time to be recognized, and I think this group has the ability to do that as it sits.” End Quote:

Now with key offensive weapon Gordon Hayward expected to miss game 3 fof the Celtics the Sixers can change their lineup a bit become even more physical, which will give them a chance to compete. 

Play on the 76ers to cover