The QB savior of the Bengals Joe Burrows will be Im betting be the difference maker here today. 

Dating back to last season, Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and  are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and  are also  0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Host 6-0 L/6 in this series and the Bengals are  8-2 ATS L/10 as non-conference Home dogs of 3 points or more. Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf and  are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1 as well as  5-2 ATS in their last 7 home gams and from a long term perspective are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games in September.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover

 Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence in my humble betting opinion is being over hyped here. The kid was great at Clemson, but Im not sure he is ready to starter in this league just yet. I know QB  Dshaun Watson wont be under center for the Texans, but  the Texans: 6-0 SU last six games in this series while the Jaguars have lost  7 straight road games  and have been a chalk in only two of its last 24 overall trips to the grid-ion , with both of those tilts ending a loss for the Jags. with that said, Ill take the points with the completely disrespected home dog.  

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 360 or more total yards/game, versus division opponents are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 130-204 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against long term 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texans to cover

 David Shaw is sometimes a hard HC to read. His team behind two QBs looked lost offensively, despite of the D, showing some strong potential this season, losing by a 24-7 final score to Kansas State last week. In this conference opener I do expect ,Shaw to stick with one QB, and for the defence to pressure a vulnerable looking USC offensive line giving Kedon Slovis some issues  with distribution. 

Cardinal is 11-3 ATS L/14 as underdogs of more than a Touch Down. 

Shaw is 30-19 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of STANFORD.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover

Embarrassing is what must describe Vanderbilts opener vs a FCS school E.Tennessee State as they lost 22-3 . Wow. A new SEC low. However, now thanks to that ugly effort Im expecting a more wide awake Vandy crew here in game 2 vs Mountain West opponent Colorado State.

Note and Key trend: 17 returning-starter underdogs like the Commodores  in Game Two of the season are  18-2 ATS when coming off a loss of 15 or more points, and facing an opponent coming off a defeat l as Colorado State is. 

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) - after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 

We have value with a viable home dog in this spot play according to my power rankings. 

PHOENIX is 7-1 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 33%  or more of their attempts after 15+ games this season. 

PHOENIX is 7-1 ATS  vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 80% or more of their shots after 15+ games this season.

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-2 SU L/24 seasons for a 94% conversion rate.

Play on the Phoenix to cover

Michigan is off a big 47-14 win vs MAC opponent Western Michigan in their first game out , but it must be noted  Michigan is 1-11 ATS L/12 facing Pac-12 opponents like Washington, including 0-7 ATS when the Wolverines are coming off a victory. MICHIGAN is 10-23 ATS   after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. I know Washington lost in an upset to the Montana , but in the past the Huskies have proved resilient- as the program has gone  8-0 SU in its last eight games after losing as a favorite, and 22-11 SU against the Big Ten L/33 meetings.

WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 37-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Missouri won and covered the last time these teams met and now Im betting they will make a game of this tilt vs Kentucky as the dog covers for the 6th straight time in this series. Mark Stoops,  is a  bankroll depleting 3-10 SU in SEC openers for his backers , including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. 

Stoops is 0-9 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of KENTUCKY.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on Missouri to cover 

Memphis true freshman QB  Seth Henigan looked good in a 42-17 victory vs FCS opponent Nicholls  in their first game , as he recorded a  19-of-32 mark  for 265 yards and a touchdown in his first career start. However, Ive rolled over some of the tape and just does not look polished enough to handle a steady Arkansas state defense and Im fading the Tigers vs a team that has revenge on board  37-24 loss at Memphis  las season. Note:Tigers are  2-13 SU in road openers and 0-4 ATS on the road under Silverfield, including 1-5 ATS when coming off a victory. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

Florida International has lost 7 straight games to FBS schools and despite of a win vs FCS school just dont look like they have it in them to defeat a up-trending program like Texas State who despite of losing 29-20 looked pretty good vs Big 12 opponent Baylor last time out  bringing home the cash as 14 point dogs. With a 17 players returning roster and a top tier QB in Bradie MacBride Texas State is a viable bet to win this game outright. Note: Texas State vs CUSA are 6-1 ATS and get the nod here. 

Play on Texas State to cover

Edmonton upset the Calgary Stampeders last time out  and now going against a  revenge minded rival. With that said,  Im now betting  the Stamps get their  redemption behind now healthy QB  Bo Levi Mitchell who is expected to start today under center . 

Dickenson is 11-1 ATS  after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of CALGARY.

CALGARY is 16-6 ATS in road games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite .

CFL Underdogs or pick (CALGARY) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite against opponent off a road win are 34-9 L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Calgary to cover

. Georgia opened with a 10-3 win over Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday and now Im betting their in a letdown situation vs a staunch Sun Belt defense that is off a shut out and must be respected. Getting pumped up again vs UAB will be a difficult task for a Georgia club in a look ahead to South Carolina in their SEC opener. GEORGIA is 29-53 ATS   in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (GEORGIA) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are just 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UAB to cover 

I don't like the way Temple is declining. They had a horrendous season last year, and now they started 0-1 after a 61-14 drubbing vs Rutgers  and have lost 5 of their L/6 road games SU and are fade material as this big a favorite, yes even against Akron. 

TEMPLE is 6-17 ATS against MAC opponents since 1992. Note: starting QB  D'Wan Mathis is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs Akron ( Foot ). 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 23-4 ATS L/29 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Akron to cover 

There is alot of returning production back from last season, and they must be respected as DD  underdogs vs a Notre Dame program that is retooling. Looking ahead to Big 10 competition next week, and in an emotional letdown state after a hard fought OT win vs Florida State last time out, Im betting we have an edge taking an explosive Toledo side getting points . 

The Rockets 11-4 ATS with a perfect record and are coming off a win of 28+  points, including 6-0 ATS L/6 in road tilts. (Toledo won last week( 49-10).

Fighting Irish are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

Play on Toledo to cover 

Illinois stepped up by taking down Nebraska  in week one of the season , but were in a massive  letdown spot the following week vs a under rated Texas State side and were upset . The up and down Illinois football side has proven fairly resilient in the past in this spot as they are 7-3 ATS away when coming off a SU favorite defeat. It must also be noted that  Illini HC Bielema is  6-0 ATS in his last six bounce back situations as a underdog when coming off a SU loss. The only  meetings in this series vs Virginia were won by Illinois. Both were  bowl games. I am not a big fan of what the situation is in Virginia or the type of recruiting that they have done, and last years 5-5 mark is a statement to that mediocrity. With that saidm  I'll recommend we take the point here. 

CFB  Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 

I know the Dallas Cowboys are off a down season, but with a healthy Dak Prescott back behind center Im betting the Cowboys will have a bounce back season, as long as health issues don't rear their ugly head again. I know Mike McCarthy the Cowboys coach did not have a very efficient first season at the helm of Americas team, but the last time one his teams had a sub .500 campaign he bounced back with a 11 win season. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the defending Super Bowl Champs will be Im betting in an emotional  hang over mode. Note: Super Bowl champs are 12-24-1 ATS L/  in their first two games of the new season, as 6 or more point favs. 

Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS L/5 Thursday night home games. Bucs are 0-5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC East competition. Buccaneers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.

 Boyz are 9-3 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point underdogs. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

McCarthy is 95-66 ATS  in games played on a grass field in all games he has coached in his career. 

Play on Dallas Cowboys to cover 

 Mike Norvell in his 2nd year in  Tallahassee Im betting is ready to shine. Yes, I know Florida state has not played great ball the last few seasons, but they are a talented bunch that is uptrending in my futures power rankings.With that said they deserve respect here vs a Notre Dame side returning only 9 starters and 3 on offense with two key contributors from last season gone ie (QB Ian Book /WR Javon McKinley).

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 57-24 ATS L/29 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover

Dino Babers is way down on my list for coaches. Talent meets preparation, and Babers fails on that examination front, as is evident by his teams inconsistencies during his tenor at Syracuse which includes a 1-10 record last season. Meanwhile, Ohio despite of being without retired HC Solich , still has he assistant and now head guy Tim Albin at the helm and will keep the system his predecessor honed the intact. 

Last year ,Ohio averaged 216.7 yards rushing per game behind RB De'Montre Tuggle l who averaged  7.6 yards per carry, 134.3 per game,  including 7 TDs. Stopping the run was an issue for the Orange last season   allowing an average of  32.7 points per game  and a whopping  209.2 rushing yards per game last season.

Ohio is 46-34 ATS L/80  as an underdog.

Play on Ohio. to cover 

Two teams with Big Ten title aspirations will meet in a key early season opener when No. 17 Indiana plays at No. 18 Iowa on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.

In a game I have pegged as. a single score game taking points with what my projections estimate is the better side is deemed a viable wager .Indiana is off a strong  season under fifth-year coach Tom Allen, finishing with a  6-2 SU record   The Hoosiers are ranked in the preseason Top 25 for the first time since 1969 and must be respected. 

Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Ferentz is 22-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of IOWA.

Play on Indiana to cover

The'Canes Im betting will continue to uptrend that they bring. back 19 starters. Meanwhile,   Alabama is down  3  key players who finished in the top 5 of the Heisman vote, and return just 3 offensive starters . Hey I know what recruiting is like at Alabama and a few 4 and 5 star studs should make them a  national championship contender squad this season, but here today against a under rated side with plenty of experience and talent Im betting on the underdog covering. 

Play on Miami Fl to cover

The Badgers are banged up on the offensive line and Im betting they have problems today moving the ball vs a under rated Litanny Lions D, that despite of giving up 27 ppg on average last season, allowed an average of just 329 ypg (the Lions numbers were skewed by alot of offensive turnovers) . Note: The previous 3 seasons the Lion defense allowed an average of just 17 PPG and this season and more importantly here today their D Im betting stands tall. 

Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Nittany Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 24-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87"% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Penn State Nitanny Lions to cover

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

 My projections suggest we have value with Stanford in this non conference spot play.  The Cardinal  have plenty if  experience on offense especially the offensive line where Im betting they  can dominate vs a  KState side that looked flustered at times on defense last season.  . The Cardinal are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and have covered  5 straight times vs  BIG12 opponents .Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 

, Northwestern Wildcats  only return  8 starters and Im betting they down trend this season in Big 10 action. Meanwhile, Michigan state returns 16 starters, and have beaten the Wildcats in their last 2 meetings. I wont be surprised if the Magic of 3 rears its head here as my projections estimate an actual upset , thus getting points makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

Fitzgerald is 17-30 ATS  in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - with 16 total starters returning are 67-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 54-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover

The Buckeyes look like an inexperienced bunch this season and  return just 2 seniors from the 2-deep chart and rank last in Top tier conference of 130 teams in returning yards gained offensive production . Meanwhile, Minnesota bring back 20 starters, including 7 seniors and 12 athletes from the 2-deep chart. This is a tough conference, and their are some surprises coming this season, and the Buckeyes inexperience may end up being a glaring issue. Advantage on the line for the Gophers. 

MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Golden Gophers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.

Play on Minnesota to cover

East Carolina is a program that may surprise some pundits this season and more importantly tonight  against the Sun Belt perennials App State . Shawn Clark will  have to deal with  a inexperienced  QB at the helm of  the Mountaineers offense. Meanwhile  the Pirates return the most production  of  all the football programs in the  American conference . HC Mike Houston Im betting is ready to make big strides in his teams competitiveness this season in his 3rd year. Advantage on the line goes to East Carolina. 

Mountaineers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

Mountaineers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Play on East Carolina to cover 

The Jacksonville St  defense allowed their  opposition to an average just 17.6 points in offensive output , 92.3 rushing yards, and 2.3 ypc in a 13-game campaign last season. With key contributors back Im betting they remain staunch. Meanwhile, the offense is also dangerous behind top tier prospect  QB Zerrick Cooper who was on the Heisman watch list after leaving Clemson. On the flip-side, UAB is also a strong team that could make a run for the CUSA championship. Their strength remains on their grinding run game on offense and a defense that returns 9 starters. With that said, Im betting on the Gamecocks strong run stopping abilities and their superior QB to help them stay within the number in this game and to get us the cover. 

Note: UAB went 1-3 ATS last season as a double-digit favorites. Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field-turf.

JSU was  2-0 ATS  last season against FBS opponents.

Play on Jacksonville state to cover 

My projections make the Mercury 2 point favs thus giving us value with the home side.

CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS after allowing 75 points or more this season.

PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 17 or more  assists/game after 15+ games this season.

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games and 38-4 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate. 

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover

The Ticats will come into Molson Stadium well rested and motivated to get a W on the board .  Fresh off of a bye week  Hamilton is a dangerous opponent for a Als side that is showing just how undisciplined they are , taking bad penalty after bad penalty. Advantage Ti Cats. 

CFL Favorites vs. the money line (HAMILTON) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers are 64-16 L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Hamilton TiCats to cover 

The Washington Mystics will face the Dallas Wings for the second time this season on Thursday at home in D.C. In their first matchup on June 26, Dallas led by double-digits almost the entire game. Tonight Im betting the Mystics will get their revenge here at home where they have won the last two meetings.

WASHINGTON is 9-1 ATS  revenging a loss versus opponent by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS  revenging a road loss versus opponent by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 27-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington Mystics to win 

The sun play their best hoops at home where they own a 10-1 mark this season, and once again Im betting home court advantage will be golden.

'CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS  after a game where a team made 90% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CONNECTICUT) - off a home win by 10 points or more, in August or September games are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (CONNECTICUT) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 34-6 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover 

Edmonton has beaten BC three straight times and matches up well against them again tonight despite of already being 0-2 on the season. The fact they are looking for their first victory of the season makes Edmonton even more dangerous. 

CFL Favorites (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a win over a division rival, in the first month of the season are 24-60 ATS L/24 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Campbell is 10-22 ATS as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1996.

Edmonton. to cover

Jasmine Thomas scored 19 points, Jonquel Jones had 17 points and 13 rebounds, and Connecticut beat Minnesota 72-60 on Tuesday night to snap the Lynx's eight-game winning streak. Rinse and repeat. 

Lynx enter this game with a  1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. 

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (CONNECTICUT) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 35-4 L/24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 9.2 ppg which qualifies on this ATS line. 

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CONNECTICUT) - off a home win by 10 points or more, in August or September games are 39-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at 11.9 which qualifies on this line. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover

NYL last 3 losses have come by DDs, and Im betting they are being given a little ibt to much respect here even though we are backing a side from the west coast playing out side of their own time zone.

WNBA team (SEATTLE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are 22-3 ATS L/24 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, with a losing record after 15 or more games are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - playing with 2 days rest, with a losing record after 15 or more games are 9-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover

  SFG starter GAUSMAN is 22-35  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record)GAUSMAN is 0-3 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.320.

NYM starter HILL is 8-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.23 and a WHIP of 1.101.

 . 

Play on the Mets to cover +1.5 

The Fever were playing well before the break as they won 3 games in a row and Im betting on that momentum to continue vs a rebuilding Sparks side getting to much respect here in this spot. 

Fever are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

Sparks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.Sparks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover

These teams bullpens in Major League Baseball  and despite of how hot the dodgers are Im betting we have value with the Mets on the run-line in this spot. I know  Dodgers Scherzer is hotter than Carrasco the Mets starter but from a matchup perspective , and how both pitchers approach hitters my projections tell me this will be a closer game than many might expect. 

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors against opponent after a game where they had 4 or less hits are 11-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate . 

Play on the Mets to cover +1.5 

The Saints enter this preseason game going 2-10 ATS L12 vs NFC opposition   Meanwhile, Baltimore is  5-0 ATS L5 in this series and overall under Harbaugh have been absolute beasts in NFLX play accumulating a  21-3 ATS  run over the L/6 seasons. The Ravens are currently on a 17-game preseason winning streak. When considering the starting lineup options and backups I conclusively estimate the Raves win vs a Saints team going through some remolding by a FG or more.... giving us value on this number.

Play on Baltimore to cover 

Its only preseason ball but the Bears are pretty banged up with a huge injury list on both sides of the ball. I know QB Justin /Fields will make his debut here today and there is alot of hype surrounding his appearance, but he cant win this game on his own, and his backup Andy Dalton despite of being experienced is far from being in his prime. Meanwhile, the Miami dolphins HC Flores looks like he takes preseason ball seriously having gone 3-0 so far with the Fins, and with the solid QB duo of Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett on the field the underdogs look like viable bets. 

Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.Dolphins are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.

Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

Play on the Dolphins to cover

  Pittsburgh has already played one tilt in the preseason (Hall ofFame Game), and they were dominant winning a 16-3 decision vs the Dallas Cowboys . Here today against the new look Eagles, who have a new coach ( Nick Sirianni) and a revamped offense behind Jalen Hurts the more prepared Steelers and their iron curtain D, look like solid preseason bets. I know its difficult to predict how much of both teams starters will play, but my depth charts give an edge to the Steelers backups. Look for the Eagles offense to experience growing pains and for the Steelers D to continue to show their toughness. 

Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog.Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog.Steelers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on natural surface. 

Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The new-look Argos Im betting will take time to get the rust off against a Calgary side that has dominated them here in Calgary over the years having won 12 straight meetings in Alberta. Note: Argos QB  Nick Arbuckle is dealing with a glute injury. 

Stampeders are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games in August.

Play on the Calgary Stampeders to cover 

I know the Bucks have now won 3 straight games in this series and now have a chance to grab the league championship with a win at home here tonight. But overall this has been a close series, and the Suns have proven themselves versatile and more than competitive enough during these play offs to justify me recommending we take the points here in this do or die situation.PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS in road games when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. PHOENIX is 13-5 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this seasonMILWAUKEE is 6-17 ATS   after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBA team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are -1-6 this season and  18-49 L/5 seasons for a overall go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover

Rays / Orioles have met six times  this season with three contests at each venue. The Rays have taken all six meetings, outscoring the Os by a 48-21 count while holding the Orioles to two runs or fewer three times and Im betting on a decisive rinse and repeat situation here today. Note: TAMPA BAY is 21-3   against the money line in home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with the average margin rpg diff clicking in 2.6 rpg. 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +200 or more (BALTIMORE) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 1 run or less are 1-37 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at -3.63 rpg. 

Play on the Rays to win -1.5 

So far in this series the home team has won all 4 meetings and Im betting on that trend to continue. Note: The Suns have won 5 straight vs the Bucks at home covering all 5 times. I really believe the Suns are the better team, and last time out, were unfortunate to lose as  they are the first team in NBA history to lose a Finals game despite shooting better than 50% and holding their opponents below 42%. I know the Bucks have really been reeling in rebounds, but it must also be noted that  PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS   in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 13-26 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. MILWAUKEE is 8-23 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

PHOENIX is 18-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.PHOENIX is 12-3 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 61-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to win 

It was obvious to me after monitoring the first two games of this series, that the Suns are the superior side and even  in Milwaukee against a hungry and desperate team must be respected getting points. PHOENIX is 7-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons. Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Suns are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

MILWAUKEE is 7-15 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.MILWAUKEE is 8-19 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. 

 PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more this season.   Suns are 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  PHOENIX is 12-1 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season. 

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

Vegas after being upset last time out will be wide awake here in ready to get redemption. LAS VEGAS is 8-0 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (LAS VEGAS) - a very good team (+7 PPG diff. or more ) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games are 35-1 L/5 seasons with th average ppg diff clicking in at +13 ppg which qualifies on the ATS line. 

Play on Las Vegas to win 

Indiana broke a long losing streak last time out and now with momentum Im betting they will be competitive again and get the cover. WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off a home win are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBA  Home favorites (INDIANA) - good offensive team - scoring 73+ points/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 39-18 ATS L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover

The Habs did everything possible to get a win last time out in game 4 and extend this series. Now exhausted and facing  a superior  team that will come out firing on all cylinders so that they can end this series and hoist the Stanley cup, the visitors are in trouble.

TAMPA BAY is 28-7 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.

Canadiens are 0-8 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Play on TB Lightning to win cover -1.5 

The Bucks played a hard fought series against the Hawks in the Eastern Conference final and now go against a well rested Suns team. Im betting the fresher legs of the Suns having a big edge here in game 1 on their own home court vs a exhausted team playing out side of their time zone. 

PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS   versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season.

 MILWAUKEE is 8-21 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense ( 36.5% or better ) after 42+ games, after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 28-3 L24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.1 ppg which qualifies from a ATS standpoint. 

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover 

This is to many points according to my projections for the Storm to be laying on the road. Advantage LA . 

LOS ANGELES is 3-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons at home. 

NBA Home teams (LOS ANGELES) - off a loss against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games after 15 or more games are 6-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on LA Sparks to cover

 Reeve is 36-24 ATS   vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of MINNESOTA.

PHOENIX is 0-8 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - playing with 2 days rest, with a losing record after 15 or more games are 9-31 ATS  L/5 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Its do or die here tonight for the Hawks and Im betting they leave everything on the floor and take this series to a game 7 even if Trae Young cannot go . Note: Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs Atlanta ( Knee )- MILWAUKEE is 14-27 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

McMillan is 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of ATLANTA.

McMillan is 17-3 ATS  in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game as the coach of ATLANTA.McMillan is 14-2 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of ATLANTA.

Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or less) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5  or moreTO's) after 42+ games are 103-33 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate with a average ppg diff of  6.6 . 

Play on Hawks to cover 

The Hawks are coming off of a over powering  110-88 win at home despite playing without Trae Young. The Bucks did not have much flow, and without Antetokounmpo who went down in the third quarter were lifeless. Now rejuvenated and ready to rebound at home, Im expecting the Bucks key forward Middletons ability to lead his team to be key here with Antetokounmpo expected to miss. Also without Trae Young in the lineup or him playing at less than 100% the Hawks will take a step back after their adrenalin filled victory in game 4. In other words its my opinion that the Bucks will do what the Hawks did in game 4 ,and that is find a way to win without their super star in the lineup. 

Milwaukee is 5-1 SU L/6 at home in this series. 

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 39-15 ATS L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Bucks to cover

 The Clippers cut the Suns' series lead to 3-2 on Monday with a 116-102 triumph in Phoenix as they attempt to overturn a 2-0 deficit for the third straight time this postseason. That was a valiant effort and the Clippers must be respected for fighting back and not succumbing . However, after exerting that much energy and as exhausted as they have looked of late, Im betting the party ends here tonight. Clippers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

PHOENIX is 21-7 ATS  L/28 in road games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 22-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 22-5 ATS L/5 season for a 82% conversion rate.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to win 

Im expecting the Astros will beat up on Baltimores starting pitcher Harvey who has garnered a 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. HARVEY is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 12.79 and a WHIP of 2.052.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (HOUSTON) - after a game without an extra base hit are 53-4 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the rpg diff clicking in at +3.6. 

Play on the Astros to win on the 

RL -1.5 

After losing the first game in this series SU, the Bucks have bounced back with two straight wins. However, in game 3 last time out, it looked like the Hawks were on their way to a win and cover as underdogs until Trae Young suffered what has now been diagnosed as a foot bruise. Now after training room preparations  he should be able to suit up and be effective enough for us to get the cover this time around.

McMillan is 9-0 ATS  revenging a home loss vs opponent as the coach of ATLANTA.ATLANTA is 20-9 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 55-21 L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Atlanta Hawks to cover 

The Clippers look exhausted  especially Paul George who has had to play a great deal of hoops and tonight Im betting their viable play off run will come to an end. There will be no Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers lineup tonight, and Im betting the Suns finish the job and get us the cover.  Note: Out of the possible 768 minutes in the the postseason, Paul George has played 652 of them. Out of the possible 576 minutes in the last 23 days, George has played 495 of them ( His proverbial tank is empty)

PHOENIX is 16-3 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Williams is 11-1 ATS after 3 consecutive division games in all games he has coached .

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 80 points or less are 27-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.7 ppg. 

NBA Favorites (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 28-10 ATS L/24 seasons are 74% conversion rate.

Play on the Suns to cover

Milwaukee has not performed optimally on the road , as is evident by a current 17-25 ATS visitors mark this season. Atlanta has proven over and over again they can be competitive against the heavy weights in the Eastern Conference and now after a down effort last time out, Im betting on a big big bounce back here in true zig zag theory evolution. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-26 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. 

ATLANTA is 15-4 ATS  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 11-1 ATS  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. McMillan is 13-1 ATS  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less  turnovers/game as the coach of ATLANTA.

ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS  in home games on Sunday games this season.ATLANTA is 20-7 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or more ) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) after 42+ games going  132-30 L/5 seasons for 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

These two teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum. 

The Diamondbacks are 0-24 SU L/24 on the road and are 4-20 on the runline.  While the Padres have won 8 straight games and running hot. 

ARIZONA is 7-34 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season with a combined average of 2.4 rpg. ARIZONA is 1-13  against the money line in road games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a 2.9 rpg diff.ARIZONA is 1-18 against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 this season with a 2.9 rpg difference. 

Play on San Diego Padres

The Clippers even without Kawhi Leonard looked like they matched up well vs the Suns in the first 3 games of this series, and in game 3 were the far better team. Tonight Im betting on that trend to continue and for the Clippers to tie this series here at home where they have won the L/14 meetings in this series.

PHOENIX is 4-16 ATS  off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 ATS   in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 13-44 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Trey Young almost single handily carried the Atlanta Hawks to victory in game 1 of this series. Now I expect Young to be curtailed and regress naturally and for this series to become alot more physical, where Im betting the Bucks have the edge, especially here at home in Milwaukee. Note:  Chalk of 4 or more points in Games 2-5 off a playoff series defeat are 170-122-7 (58.2%) ATS in history. 

ATLANTA is 8-21 ATS  in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 7-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 18-37 ATS L/55 off a road win by 3 points or less .

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 1-6 ATS this season  and  15-44 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Underdogs (ATLANTA) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 20-53 ATS L/24 seasons for go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - when trailing in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 53-9 SU L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average ppf diff clicking in at +7.8 ppg. 

NBA Favorites (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 55-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Suns squeezed by the Clippers in game 2 104-103 to take a 2-0 lead in this series. Now in desperation mode I look for the Clippers even without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup to come out here and get the win behind the energy of their home town fans. Note: The Clippers have won 13 straight in LA vs the Suns and get my support to keep that streak alive tonight. 

LA CLIPPERS are 34-17 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 31-7 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams (PHOENIX) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are just 17-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 13-41 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% . 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

The Suns enter into game 2 of this series vs the Clippers off a win in game 1 for their 8th straight play off victory. I know the Clippers have found a way to win without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup but Im betting it will finally start to effect them as early as tonight. 

PHOENIX is 16-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. PHOENIX is 10-2 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

PHOENIX is 10-2 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to win 

Its become obvious to me that the Hawks matchup well vs the Sixers and according to my projections this is just to many points here for me not grab the underdog line value. From historical standpoint the 76ers have never won a series when they were down 3-2 (0-14) which was the case last time out,  with the Sixers leaving everything on the floor in a 5 point victory that could have gone either way. With that said, I would also not be surprised to see the young Hawks grab this series outright with a win, but more importantly taking the points is a solid option. Key:Young  must own this game which Im betting he is capable of. He has been explosive offensively  averaging of 30.3 points and 11.0 assists in this series.

Interesting anomaly shows the Hawks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games.

Play on the Hawks to cover

Milwaukee has not played all that well on the road this season which is evident by their 16-25 ATS record as visitors, and are just 5-16 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons and 4-14 ATS   in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Nash is 12-1 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BROOKLYN. 

I know Kyrie Irving is not expected to play tonight for the Nets, but they are deep enough to adjust to that loss, and will be ready to compete tonight at home vs a Bucks franchise that is 0-7 in game 7s in their NBA lifetime.

Note:HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLLWL:Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WWLLWL irrespective of site order (Brooklyn) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2021  and NBA Preliminary rounds: 22-6 SU Game 7  record.

Play on Brooklyn to win

With Kawhi Leonard on the sidelines again tonight Im betting on the Jazz finding a way to extend this series with a take no prisoners effort here and take this to a game 7. Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 14-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover 

The 76ers held a  26-point lead at home against the Atlanta Hawks in game 5 and took a  18 point lead into the fourth quarter. But however, in miraculous fashion the Hawks scored 40 points in the final quarter   to complete one  of the biggest playoff comebacks in league history.In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games beginning in 1947, road teams down 22 points as late as after two quarters had a game record of only 0-19 (.000). Now with huge momentum on their sides Im betting Atlanta has the edge vs a deflated 76ers group that have shown themselves to be less than brilliant on the road this season as is evident by their 19-19 ATS record. 

ATLANTA is 12-3 ATS in home games after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-21 ATS  in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or better ) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball handling team ( 14.5 or less TO's) after 42+ games are 102-30 L/5 seasons for a 77% SU conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 14-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

ATLANTA is 6-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons here at home in Georgia. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Milwaukee plays their best hoops at home where they own a 30-10 SU record  with an  average 8.1 ppg diff, and tonight Im betting they come out here in a desperation mode and play a start to finish all out energy game .  With no tomorrow if they lose you can bet we get the best out of the Bucks tonight vs a Nets side that 21-19 SU on the road this season. 

Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 

Budenholzer is 35-19 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 13-42 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -7.4 ppg.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good shooting team - shooting 46% or more  on the season, dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game are 169-56 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.4 ppg. 

NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 17-39  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Pivotal game 5 goes tonight in Utah. Each team has won both their home games, and tonight Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation to continue. Advantage. Utah. 

Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.

UTAH is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.UTAH is 15-6 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

Clippers are 8-22-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings in Utah. UTAH is 5-0 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons at home . 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 14-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate.

Play on Utah to cover 

Philadelphia after exploding out of the gate last time out to take a commanding DD lead, in game 4, feel asleep at the proverbial wheel and ended up losing SU. It was an embarrassing result, that Im sure will have this 76ers crew ready to bounce back with a vengeance and keep the pedal to metal until the final whistle goes off which makes laying points a viable betting option. Note: Sixers star Joel Embiid, went 0 for 12 in the 2nd half, and despite of a light injury to his knee is good to go, and ready to shine up his big ego here tonight in a game his team needs badly to get their mojo back.PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with the ppg differential clicking in at +11 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season. ATLANTA is 12-23 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Im betting Switzerland will spend a great deal of  this tilt in a strong defensive stance that has displayed 3-4-1-2 formation with key contributors Ricardo Rodriguez and Kevin Mbabu leading the way. This will see a fluid Swiss team attack in transition, and give the Italian D some issues. Both sides can score , but I like the Swiss D, to be the difference maker on the spread. Thus getting a goal here is my choice selection of todays Euro action. 

Play on Switzerland to cover +1 

Germany's record since September in  international play  6-5-2 (W-D-L) including being blasted by Spain by a  6-0 count. This young team, despite of being talented has yet to click, and here vs a versatile championship French side could easily find the action to be to much on them as this tilt goes deeper . Bottom line: France is far more talented at this juncture and deserve respect here. 

Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

Three-time NBA champion Danny Green sustained a strained right calf during Philadelphia's 127-111 win over Atlanta on Friday and will now Im betting have problems adjusting without him and being as fluid. Im also betting on the streaky Trae Young to find his form after a couple crap shooting games in a row. Advantage Atlanta. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-27 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  

ATLANTA is 19-7 ATS  in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 20-9 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.ATLANTA is 14-3 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons . ATLANTA is 20-8 ATS  in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-31 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. 

76ers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 14-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

it has become obvious to me the Suns are the superior side in this matchup which we see via the 3-0 strangle hold they have in this series that resulted in 3 DD victories. These Suns have morphed into a cohesive machine, with a killer instinct and I cant see them taking their proverbial feet of the pedal as they go for a sweep of the Nuggets. 

PHOENIX is 13-3 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season.PHOENIX is 8-0 ATS   in road games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games

DENVER is 9-19 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 74-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 24-8 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +4.5 ppg game. 

Play on the Suns to win 

Milwaukee plays their best hoops at home, and just like they did in game 3 will try  to produce another strong defensive effort as they try to take the flow away from the explosive Nets. Im betting their physicality  will   help them to another victory. 

Budenholzer is 34-19 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots as the coach of MILWAUKEE. 

MILWAUKEE is 4-1 straight in Wisconsin against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons. The home team has won the L/6 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 32-8 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (BROOKLYN) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-100 ATS L/24 seasons for. ago against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 11-34 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against  76% to cover. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Its never easy for visiting teams like the Suns  to play in the high altitudes of the  Mile High City and tonight vs a desperate and extremely motivated  Nuggets team that will become evident.

DENVER is 14-4 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 32-18 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games.

Suns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Suns are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Denver.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in five consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are just 9-26 SU L/24 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Brooklyn took the first two games of this series, but the Bucks now in desperation mode and playing at home will come out here with all guns blazing. With the Nets  Harden expected to miss this tilt Im betting the edge resides  with the Bucks. Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bucks have won 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series in Milwaukee. 

 MILWAUKEE is 12-3 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Nets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog.

NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 16-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 60-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 39-14 ATS L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to win 

Congratulations to the Hawks for beating the Knicks in the first round of the play offs, but now against a battle hardened and experienced play off team that is playing at home, the Hawks are at a disadvantage vs the 76ers. 

ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 8-24 ATS  in the second round of the playoffs since 1996. Hawks are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 Conference Semifinals games. Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Hawks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.

PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog are 5-48 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

These teams are pretty evenly matched but Denver has found a way to be up 3-2 in this series, and now in pure all out desperation mode Im betting on the Blazers coming out here with all guns blazing and finding a way to get the win and more importantly for us the the cover. 

DENVER is 7-18 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons

NBA Road underdogs (DENVER) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 4-25 ATS L/24 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Blazers to cover

The Mavericks looked good in the first two games of this series, as they Clippers looked asleep at the proverbial  wheel. After their slumber the Clippers are now wide awake and will no longer take their opposition for granted and continue on their two recent DD dismantling's of the Mavs and get the win and cover here again  in game 5.   DALLAS is 13-24 ATS  after playing a home game this season. Carlisle is 40-59 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DALLAS. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - very good shooting team - shooting  48%  or better on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 27-3 L/24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.8 ppg. 

NBA Favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two  teams with a defensive shot conversion rate of  (45.5-47.5%), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less  are 28-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 28-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

Despite of being down 3-1 in this series the Grizzlies have been competitive in all 4games  and Im betting they don't go down here without an all out dog fight making them viable underdogs taking points. . MEMPHIS is 24-15 ATS in road games this season.Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.Jazz are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.

Play ont he Grizzlies to cover 

NYK in desperation mode (and fear of elimination) Im betting will find a way to stay alive in this series with a victory here tonight. 

ATLANTA is 18-34 ATS  after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

NEW YORK is 18-8 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 12-3 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. NEW YORK is 26-6 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NEW YORK is 6-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons. (NYK)

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, playing with 2 days rest are 49-10 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 8-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NYK to cover

The defending NBA champs Im betting will be primed to grab back the lead in this series vs the Phoenix Suns and deserve respect getting points in game 5 of this series. LA LAKERS are 24-8 ATS  when tied in a playoff series since 1996. LA LAKERS are 19-9 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games. PHOENIX is 0-8 ATS  in home games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Note: I know the Lakers are going to be without Davis , but  as long as James is on the court they are golden .... even when Davis sits , as  the Lakers recorded  a +7.1 point differential per 100 possessions vs opposition this season.

Play on the Lakers to cover 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

The Clippers finally woke up after looking like they were asleep at the wheel in the first two games of this series back in LA. Now back in a groove Im betting on the Clippers to come right back and tie this series with a win tonight. LA CLIPPERS are 18-7 ATS  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 season

 Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog.Mavericks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 Conference Quarterfinals games.Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.

DALLAS is 0-8 ATS  in home games on Sunday games over the last 2 season.

Clippers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Dallas.

Play on the LA Clippers 

Down 3-0 in this series the Heat excuse the pun, need to bring the Heat and leave everything on the floor tonight. In game 1 they did what I thought they would, but after that heart breaking close loss in the opener, they have suffered and extended emotional  letdown.  Quote:"Our rhythm is off," Heat guard Goran Dragic said. "It's way off. We lose our confidence." End quote: Needless to say alot of soul searching has been done since that last game, and now Im betting on the Heat coming up big here and getting us the cover in an all out  due or die performance. Note: The Heat haven't been swept in the playoffs since 2007 against the Chicago Bulls. 

Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 road games.

MILWAUKEE is 5-16 ATSafter 3 or more consecutive wins this season.MILWAUKEE is 6-21 ATS   after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 2 seasons.

Key Injury :Bucks  starting guard Donte DiVincenzo out for play offs. 

Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Miami.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 26-68 L/24 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3

From a SRS comparison there is data that suggests  these teams being very evenly matched . The Knicks rank 11th at 2.13. Atlanta ranks 10th at 2.14 . Thus getting points for me is a strong option here especially after watching the first two games. Im betting on the Knicks tenaciousness which is unmatched and their top ranked ppd defence to be the difference maker. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

NEW YORK is 23-13 ATS in road games this season

NEW YORK is 10-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons including 4-0 ATS L/4 visits to Atlanta. 

NEW YORK is 18-4 ATS   versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 22-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

Portland took game 1 in convincing fashion then the Nuggets returned the favor in a DD win in game 2. Now in true zig zag theory convergence we go back to the Blazers tonight here at home. Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

DENVER is 6-17 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. 

Malone is 26-44 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more as the coach of DENVER.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-29 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Trail Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Play on the Blazers to win/cover 

When the the defending champs are in top form the Lakers are hard to beat as was the case last time out when they took out the Suns by a 109-102 final score. Now with play off action in full swing Im betting  we will now see an experienced side take advantage of the young inexperienced Suns behind a defensive style of play that will disrupt the visitors flow. LA LAKERS are 23-8 ATS  when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

PHOENIX is 7-20 ATS   off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after a game where they covered the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 85-49 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

NYK lost a closely contested game last time out vs the Hawks . The Hawks actually kept up with the tenacious work ethic of the Knicks which has been rare this season. The difference maker Im betting will come via the Knicks consistent never say style of play something I believe the Hawks will not be able to contend with in game 2.  

NEW YORK is 9-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

NEW YORK is 17-2 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. NEW YORK is 11-3 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. 

NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 17-4 ATS versus sub par  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  

NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 100-64 ATS L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

Play on the NYK to cover 

Ok kudos to Dallas in game 1 of this series as they pulled of the upset as dogs. However, now wide awake Im betting on the Clippers coming back here with a huge effort and what Im betting will be a subsequent cover. LA CLIPPERS are 13-4 ATS  after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - when trailing in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 47-8 L/24 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.6 ppg. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Brooklyn took game 1 of this series 103-94 covering as 8.5 point chalk and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. Note: BROOKLYN is 6-0/SU L/6 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons at home.BOSTON is 3-17 ATS   versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Indiana won the first meeting in this back to back series vs Washington and matchup well vs the Mystics as the final 89-77 score would indicate. INDIANA is 10-2 ATS off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog . Thibault is 2-12 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite in all games he has coached since 1997.

WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games attempting 70 or more shots over the last 3 seasons

NBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, on Tuesday nights are 63-31 ATS L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

Play on the Fever to cover 

Game 1 was a closely contested tilt , with the lead changing  back and forth throughout the contest  in a game that was never controlled by either side. Im betting things don't change that much today making the underdog Heat once again a viable wagering opportunity. Spoelstra is 10-1 ATS  in road games in the 2nd game of a playoff series as the coach of MIAMI. 

MILWAUKEE is 9-24 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season and overall have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 overall including game 1 of this series.

MIAMI is 16-5 ATS  in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 25-12 ATS  against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

No Zig Zag theory in play here. 

Play on the Miami Heat. 

The Knicks have shown a great deal of chemistry this season, and have proven themselves disciplined while implementing a top tier brand of defensive hoops that is difficult to play against as is evident by ranking 1st in ppg defense in the NBA behind  a deliberate  30th ranked pace.  Meanwhile, their first round play off opponents the Atlanta  Hawks, own the 23rd ranked offensive deficiency which does not bode well here in what will be a grinding game that will test their will to grind it out in the key in their own zone. Note: The Knicks took all three meetings this season between these teams, once on the road and twice at home by DDs. Rinse and repeat here in game 1.  

Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Knicks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.NEW YORK is 16-2 ATS   at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.NEW YORK is 16-4 ATS  versus average to sub par  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

Portland has been on my radar for a while now as the teams chemistry has improved as this season has progressed and look like a viable dark horse entering the play offs. After watching game video of the last time these teams met on May 16th in game the Blazers won 132-116 it became obvious to me that unless the Nuggets made improbable changes that they could find themselves in trouble in this series. Im not counting the Nuggets out in this series, but here in game 1 I am betting they will not make the changes necessary for victory.  

 PORTLAND is 16-7 ATS   in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season. PORTLAND is 19-7 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. PORTLAND is 10-2 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

DENVER is 16-25 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.DENVER is 5-13 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a road loss against a division rival, playing with 3 or more days rest are 12-34 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against  74% conversion rate.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - playing with 3 or more days rest, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 70-19 L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Portland to win

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

From a power ranking and SRS perspective the superior side here is the Clippers. The Clippers rank 2nd in the league in SRS with a 6.02 data point while the Mavericks rank 9th with a 2.26 mark. When factoring in home court advantage for the Clippers laying single digit lumber is a viable betting opportunity. Note: SRS: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

DALLAS is 1-9 ATS  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season.  Mavericks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 Conference Quarterfinals games.Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 28-2 L/24 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 ppg which qualifies this trend on a ATS line. (Qualifying factor:  Dallas beat the Clippers back in March and LAC lost their last two games this season) 

NBA Home teams (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 24-6 L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Golden State Warriors put an all out effort vs the La Lakers last time out and still lost , and will now be in a huge letdown situation that will benefit the tenacious and well conditioned  Memphis Grizzlies . Advantage Memphis. Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

MEMPHIS is 13-5 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.MEMPHIS is 30-16 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.MEMPHIS is 9-1 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.

NBA Road teams (MEMPHIS) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 76-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.  

Play on Memphis to cover 

Western Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

This was a trigger point of where I wanted to take a stance on this tilt and now at -5 to -6 Im all in here on the defending champion Lakers taking this game and covering the all important number. I know Golden State is red hot and Curry is lighting up the scoreboard for them, but here vs a side that has honed their defensive game (Ranked No.1 in Defensive Efficiency) for much of this season with an eye towards play off hoops, Im betting now with their full compliment of players in the lineup( ie James , Davis ) the Lakers have an advantage with what my power ranking suggest is the superior side.   Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Warriors are  also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

GOLDEN STATE is 1-10 ATSin road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 57-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a  66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are just 54-244 L/24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% with the ppg diff clicking in at -9.1 ppg which qualifies on a ATS line. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

My projections make this line closer to -3 for the road side which gives us a full possession of value taking points with the home dog . 

NBA Road favorites (CHICAGO) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are just 6-30 L/24 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Dream to cover 

Eastern Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

Indiana plays a soft defensive game, and in my humble opinion are not suited well to handle what can be a grinding style of physical play that is often associated with success in the play offs. I know charlotte may not inspire bettors after finishing the season with 5 straight losses, but those loses games against a high level of talented sides, and will have them ready to compete here. 

.CHARLOTTE is 13-2 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

 INDIANA is 0-8 ATS  in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9 ppg. Bjorkgren is 5-15 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of INDIANA.

NBA Home teams (INDIANA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50%  or more of their shots are 49-104 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Sacramento Im betting goes through the motions today as they wont be in the play offs . Meanwhile, for Utah going into the post season  with positive momentum is important and even though they will rest players during this game are deep enough to come out of this with a comfortable victory. They smashed the Kings 154-105 in their most recent  meeting and have 3 consecutive DD victories in this series. NBA Underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 3-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking at +16 ppg. 

Play on the Jazz to cover

Brooklyn Im betting will want to finish off their season with a-lot of momentum both from a offensive and defensive perspective which Im betting results in a big time DD victory. 

The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS/SU  after their opponent made at least 10 more free throws than they did last game with each loss coming by 15 or more points with the average ppg diff clicking in by an average of 30.4 ppg. 

CLEVELAND is 9-23 ATS   as a road underdog this season.

Play on Brooklyn to cover