Cubs LH Mike Montgomery (3-4, 3.90 ERA) vs. Royals RH Brad Keller (4-4, 3.39)

Brad Keller KCs starting hurler has done some very good work at home this season going 2-0 along with a stable 3.11 ERA at home, in five starts, allowing just 11 hits in 27 plus innings of solid work. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Chicago cubs Montgomery , has seen his team lose his L/5 home starts and not score more than 3 runs in any of them.

MONTGOMERY is 3-8  against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) and is 7-14  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with the Cubs scoring 4.5 runs and their opposition 4 rpg. 

I know their is more to baseball than starting pitching but there is an advantage here, at least on the runline  considering the matchup ,for me to back KC +1.5. I've also isolated a viable situation listed below.

The Royals are 15-1 on the moneyline and perfect 16-0 L/16 on the run line  as a home dog after a game as a home dog in which they struck out their opponent at least ten times and it is post All-Star break. which. happened in their last trip to the diamonds. 

Play on the KC Royals +1.5 on the runline 

The Las Vegas Aces arrived in Connecticut for Sunday's game against the Sun amid a storm of controversy after they canceled Friday night's game in Washington. They canceled because of what they though there safety concerns after being stuck in a plane for 25 hrs. QUOTE: Given the travel issues we faced over the past two days -- 25-plus hours spent in airports and airplanes, in cramped quarters and having not slept in a bed since Wednesday night -- and after consulting with our Union, and medical professionals, we concluded that playing tonight's game would put us at too great a risk for injury," the Aces said in a statement. The Aces now precariously prepare to play a Connecticut team ramping in to top form and looking as strong as they did earlier this season after 3 consecutive DD wins. Earlier this season Connecticut won a 101-65 lopsided decision vs the Aces at home, and then were upset in the rematch 94-90 in Vegas. Im betting the Sun come out focused and ready to reap revenge for that last loss as they also focus on keeping their momentum alive heading towards the playoffs. 

Lay the points with Connecticut to cover 

After a red hot start that saw them go 14-5 record, the Mercury (15-12) have been highly inconsistent since losing power forward Sancho Lyttle to a season-ending knee injury June 30. However, this is still a good veteran laden Mercury side that must not be underestimated vs a young group in Las Vegas . Adjustments are being made and their leader and future Hallof Famer, Jamie Taurasi feels this team can get back on track. QUOTE:  "By this time of the season, we should have everything figured out," Taurasi told the Arizona Republic. "Now it's about application. You want to come and put it to work because what things work, what don't work, how to approach things. And we know when we don't come with the right approach, what's most likely to happen. Nothing is going to be a surprise anymore. END QUOTE:Taurasi has been stellar in her three games against the Aces this season, scoring 25, 28 and 33 points. Las Vegas also has not been able to stop Griner, who is averaging 20.7 points and 11 boards per game against the Aces this season. I'm betting these two star players will the difference maker today in Vegas.PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.LAS VEGAS is 12-27 L/39 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Phoenix is 8-1 L/9 meetings and have won their L/4 games as visitors in this series.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

COREY KLUBER (R) vs. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (R)

Cleveland ace right-hander Corey Kluber (12-6, 2.88 ERA) pitches on an extra day of rest Sunday and will extremely dangerous in this spot.Kluber beat the Tigers in his two starts against them this year, allowing two runs in 16 innings.Meanwhile, Right-hander Jordan Zimmermann (4-2, 3.97 ERA) makes his second post All-Star game start for Detroit,  Over his career, Zimmermann is 0-4 with a 10.57 ERA when facing the Indians . Im betting Zimmerman and the Tigers are big time fade material in this spot. 

The Indians have won 21 straight in franchise history when Corey Kluber starts as a 160-plus favorite in an afternoon game. with the average margin of victory coming by more than 6 rpg.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the run-line

The Toronto Argos took it on the chin last week, vs this same Winnipeg Blue Bombers team by a 38-20 count as short home dogs, and now have revenge on board in the quick turnaround rematch of a home and home series. I know the Bombers dominated, but last week they were being underestimated by the lines makers, and now this week their is over reaction to the last result. Toronto despite of exhibiting some issues, showed some promise at QB with James Franklin (65.5 %  Comp) and look very much to be a value choice here vs this slightly bloated line. It must be noted that the Blue Bombers have failed to cover five straight games as a double-digit favorite while TO has covered 5 of their L/7 as underdogs. Also from a league wide database it must also be noted that road dogs off a loss, with at least 4 days rest are a long term solid wagering opportunity cashing at 62% or more of the time, if they are less than 14 point dogs. 

 HC O'Shea of Winnipeg is 0-7 ATS  after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game , which the Argos were able to accomplish.

WINNIPEG is 5-17 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game and is 10-24 ATS after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.

CFL Road underdogs or pick (TORONTO) - with a poor defense - allowing 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in their previous game are 54-25 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Argos to cover 

As bad as perceptions of the Allouettes might be, their still a proud group playing at home. Losing to what my power rankings suggest is the leagues best team last week   (Calgary ) by a 25-8 count , is nothing to be embarrassed of. The Als also went right into Saskatchewan this season and pulled off the SU upset , and despite of their 1-4 record are being underestimated vs a Edmonton side that has lost both their road games this season.  Right or wrong  there is just to much home value to pass in taking the home dog in this spot. 

EDMONTON is 2-10 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons ands 4-12 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and s 2-9 ATS L/11  in non-conference games.

CFL team vs the money line (EDMONTON) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 4-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Montreal Als to cover 

The Minnesota Lynx are off a game where they were very focused in beating a very good Phoenix Mercury team on the road, showing their championship pedigree in the process . But now I doubt we will see the Lynx at their best vs a less than consistent NY Liberty side thus giving us value with a underdog line. Minnesota for the most part have proven themselves as week chalk of late failing to cover 10 of their L/14 as favs of 7 points or more and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD favs as they are here today. 

NEW YORK is 9-2 ATS  after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.MINNESOTA is 2-8 ATS after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better this season.MINNESOTA is 10-20 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA team vs the money line/SU (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss versus opponent by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 21-5 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (NEW YORK) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games are 50-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - revenging a loss versus opponent against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 26-6 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 31-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Liberty to cover 

The teams top team (Seattle) is obviously much better than the leagues worst team ( Indiana) However, the  Indiana Fever have played their best against the top teams in the WNBA this season.The Fever (3-22) have only three wins in 2018, but they've come against teams currently ranked No. 2 (Atlanta), No. 5 (Minnesota) and, most recently, No. 3 (Los Angeles on Friday) in the WNBA standings and tonight I'm betting on them giving a tired Seattle side a run for their money. It must be noted that the Storm , lost their first road game in a month last time out to a very good Atlanta side and exhibited some exhaustion in that tilt, something I'm betting continues here. 

SEATTLE is 4-12 ATS  after 3 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line /SU (SEATTLE) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 15-46 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

WNBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

Vegas is a young team, and despite of being talented young teams sometimes lose their concentration and show a lack of consistency especially after a big upset win like they pulled last time out vs the Phoenix Mercury. Today vs a 3-21  Indiana team I'm betting the Aces in a letdown situation overlook their opponent, and possibly get upset, and more importantly as far as we are concerned we get a cover with Indiana.

LAS VEGAS is 6-19 ATS  L/25 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (LAS VEGAS) - off an road win where they scored 85 or more points, with a losing record after 15 or more games are just 8 -19 L/21 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

Atlanta might be a dog here today vs Seattle but they are more than capable of pulling of the upset. This is Seattles third straight road game and are off a underdog upset vs the Connecticut Sun that time out, and susceptible to a letdown on tired legs. Meanwhile, Atlanta just might be the real deal, as they enter this game on a 7 game win streak, and have only one loss in their L/8 , and that was on the road to his same Seattle team team 95-86. With revenge on board Im betting the Dream coming out of this with a win, and more importantly as we are concerned a cover. 

Atlanta is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings overall.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last 2 seasonsSEATTLE is 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog ATLANTA is 25-12 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less since 1997. ATLANTA is 7-1 ATS in July games this season. ATLANTA is 61-33 ATS  after 3 consecutive division games since 1997. ATLANTA is 20-6 ATS  in home games off a home win against a division rival since 1997. ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS  after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games this season. ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 70 points or more in 5 straight games this season. ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games this seasonATLANTA is 6-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. 

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 15- 45 L/5 season for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

Two of the top teams in the WNBA enter this game against each other in what must be considered slumps. The Mercury have lost 4 of their L/5 and the Lynx have lost 4 of their L/7 with no back to back wins since early July. Both are desperate to get back on track, but I'm betting home court advantage for the Mercury will be the difference maker.

PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS  in home games off a close home loss by 3 points or less . Which happened last time out in a 85-82 loss to Vegas.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite are 31-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 27-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover 

The Argos continue to play without their starting QB Ricky Ray, and my humble opinion are in trouble. The Toronto offence has already shown signs of floundering without Ray at the helm, and tonight vs an under rated Winnipeg side those problems could easily be magnified. Winnipeg owns a +48 point differential this season while, Toronto is a chilly -40. Yes, the Argos D, has looked solid, but will tire if the team continues to stagnate on offence and the D  remains on the field for extended periods of time. The Argos have already shown lapses in their pass defense and more breakdowns are possible going forward. I know Winnipeg lost last week, vs the Lions thanks to a late collapse, but the Bombers are legitimate contenders despite of a 2-3 record , and must not be underestimated. 

Bombers are 17-4 SU ATS L/21 road games.

WINNIPEG is 13-4 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last few seasons.

WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons and is 8-1 ATS in road games off a division game over the last few seasons.

CFL Favorites (WINNIPEG) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - off a non-conference game are  11-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Winnipeg to cover 

Seattle is a top tier team, and Connecticut are also a team that needs to be respected especially on their own home court . Connecticut started the season 7-1 but has gone 5-10 since, the last two losses coming in stunning fashion, thanks to their lack of ability to pace themselves and just plain bad luck.The Sun lost to the New York Liberty on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer by Shavonte Zellous. Then, after two wins, Connecticut set up for the last shot against the Dream with the score tied. But the Sun turned the ball over, and Atlanta's Tiffany Hayes hit a Hail Mary half-court shot for the 86-83 victory. The indignity of those types of losses Im betting will ignite this Sun team into fervently  seeking redemption against one of the leagues top teams. The Sun also have revenge on board for previous losses to the Storm, so II big time effort is something I'm banking on by the host side. 

I know its hard going against a team like the Storm , especially after they dismantled Chicago last time out, but a 101-83 count, but a letdown situation is not out of ordinary after a performance like that. Note: SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  off an road win where they scored 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons and  is 3-11 ATS  after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. 

Favorites (CONNECTICUT) - revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season are 30-9 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBA Home teams SU (CONNECTICUT) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 25-5 L/5 seasons for a 83% SU conversion rate.

WNBA Home favorites SU (CONNECTICUT) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite are 31-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors winning by an average of 8.1ppg. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover 

The Atlanta Dream enter this game playing their best hoops of the season, and  coming off a dominating 98-74 victory over Indiana on Friday in which seven Dream players scored 10 or more points in a game for the first time in franchise history.Atlanta has scored 90.6 points per game in the first five outings this month and are dangerous in their current form, and are my choice today vs the Washington Mystics. ( TheMystics won last time out but lost their two games and one to Atlanta previous to that and have looked unstable at times and unstoppable on other occasions, today Im expecting they will just be out played by a confident side. QUOTE:"When you get on a roll, it is the beauty of sports in general, confidence is a beautiful thing," Atlanta coach Nicki Collen said. "When the person next to you is making shots and you get a little cushion, it becomes a little easy to step up and take the next shot. There is not a ton of pressure when you are playing with a 12-point lead to take an open 3 and make it 15." END QUOTE.

Atlanta clobbered the Mystics 106-89 as road dogs on July 11 , last week, and matchup very well vs the Dream. Note: WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

WNBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more are 28-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

Indiana (2-18) is back on the road after losing 87-65 to defending league champion Minnesota on Wednesday in Indianapolis and are now lacking a lot of confidence as their season seems lost. Meanwhile, the the Dream after manufacturing their best game of the year in their most recent trip the hardwood  clobbering Washington 106-89 on the road are now feeling pretty good about themselves and I now expect them to ride that momentum into this tilt. Atlanta set a WNBA record when four players notched 20-plus and recorded at least five assists in a win.Fever are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Note: ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS  in home games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1997 with the Average score clicking in at Atlanta 87 opp 74.4.

WNBA Underdogs vs the money line (INDIANA) - off a home loss by 10 points or more, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games are 2-28 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 16.4 ppg. 

WNBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game are 18-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Indiana Fever have two wins this season and one of them came  vs today's guests the Minnesota Lynx last week on July 3. The linesmakers   are now expecting the defending champion lynx to come out and get their revenge with a conclusive DD victory. But I' betting a win by the Lynx won't come as easily as some might think. The lynx scored just 59 points in their loss to the fever and despite of bouncing back in their next game they followed that up with another clunker and scored just 63 points in a another  loss to Dallas by a 90-63 count. It' obvious the Lynx are struggling right now , and have shown a lack of consistency since early in the season. I know Fever may not inspire bettors but this home under dog line does have value attached to it. 

MINNESOTA is 4-11 ATS  after playing a game as favorite this season. MINNESOTA is 18-33 ATS L51 in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 80% or more of their shots after 15+ games.

Favorites (MINNESOTA) - revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 11-37 last  5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a road loss ARE just 7-26 L5 seasons for a go against 79%conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana  Fever to cover

I'm a little surprised at how erratic the LA Sparks have played of late, as they have lost 5 of their L/6 games and look to be in a tailspin defensively, allowing 81 or more points in 5 of their L/7, where they have in the recent past played their best hoops. In the Sparks current form, it won't be a hard decision to fade them against a Seattle side with a killer instinct and currently playing their best basketball of the season as is evident by having registered 5 straight wins and 7 victories in their L/8 trips to the court. Seattle is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 meetings here at home in this series.

LOS ANGELES is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when they allow 83 or more points in a game this season

WNBA Road underdogs (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are 8-30 ATS L/21 seasons for go against  79% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - a very good team (+7 or more PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more are 32-1 L/21 season for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - off a home win, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are 29-2 for a 93% conversion rate L/5 seasons.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover 

Phoenix (14-5) is the real deal behind the clutch play of Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, and I'm betting these two stars will own the Atlanta Dream( 8-9) this afternoon at the McCamish Pavilion on the campus of Georgia Tech University. Phoenix won the first game between the two teams 78-71 on June 3 in Atlanta and a repeat performance is high probability event today. 

PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. PHOENIX is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season. PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season.

ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. 

WNBA Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - after scoring 70 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 77 points or more in 4 straight games are 23-53 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover

The Bombers continue to play  without star quarterback Matt Nichols, but Chris Streveler has played well as his replacement. However, that may be short lived as the scouts get better reads on this QB.  I'm betting his current fluidity will be tested, most probably tonight vs a BC Lions defence, that despite of giving up some big plays and points last week vs Edmonton are a solid speedy group that must not be disrespected or underestimated. Meanwhile, the Lions are also capable of taking advantage of a Bombers D, that was dominated on time of possession last week by  the Tiger-Cats , and were on the field for a total of 37:30 of the tilt and could still be feeling the effects of that exhausting sub par performance. In their two losses this season, the Bombers  have  allowed opposition quarterbacks to throw 777 yards via their aerial attacks, and could get torched again, by a a QB in Johnathon Jennings that is itching be let loose by HC Buono.

Its interesting to note that BC won the last meeting between these teams by a 36-27 count , but the previous 5 meetings were close affairs, with 4 of those games decided by a FG or less, and one by 6 points.

BRITISH COLUMBIA is 38-20 ATS L/58  as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.BC HC Buono is 35-8 ATS  as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached in his career and 24-9 ATS  in road games off a loss against a division rival in all games he has coached.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - in the first month of the season are 33-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on BC Lions to cover 

Los Angeles is a top tier side that has struggled a bit  of late as they have dropped two straight and four of their past five games. The Sparks, however, did  did look good against  defending champs Minnesota, last time out, but  the  Lynx were on a mission, after scoring just 59 points in a previous loss , and the Sparks were not able to match their intensity and lost . Tonight, I expect a big bounce back effort by the Sparks vs the Mystics with behind their league leading  scoring defense that allows  76.5 points a contest as will the Sparks ability to be physical vs a side that struggles under the glass, as is evident by Washington ranking   11th in the league in rebounding (31.9 boards per game). Don't get me wrong the Mystics are a fine team, but LAs will to get back on track will be of paramount importance here as Candace Parker, Nneka Ogwumike and company roll.  LA has dominated this series , over the last few seasons garnering a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS mark in the L/7 meetings. Im betting on these trends to stay intact .

LOS ANGELES is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games off a road loss over the last few seasons winning by DD averages. LOS ANGELES is 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival over the last few seasons.

WASHINGTON is 2-10 ATS  after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite since in their inception to the WNBA.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 52-16 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - excellent shooting team (46% or better) against an poor defensive team (43.5-46%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or better of their shots are 28-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate winning by a an average of 10.4 ppg.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover 

  The  Riders have been  giving up a some big plays that look great on highlight films but their overall defence is of the top tier variety and has not given up a lot of yards so far this season. Hamilton has a lot of playmakers,  that begins with the arm of QB Masoli ,but moving the ball I'm betting won't be as easy as the pundits might think against this Riders D. With that said, take the points with the home dog Roughriders.

Tiger-Cats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.Tiger-Cats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in July. Roughriders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss and ATS loss.

SASKATCHEWAN is 22-9 ATS L/31 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 325 or more passing yards/game. SASKATCHEWAN is 49-25 ATS L/74 as a home underdog.

Saskatchewan has won the last 3 meetings in this series, including the last 2 here at home. 

CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SASKATCHEWAN) - in the first month of the season are 32-14 L/5 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors.

CF L teams like (HAMILTON) - with an incredible offense - averaging 7.5 or more yards/play are just 10-25 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate.  

Play on the Saskatchewan Riders to cover 

The LA Sparks despite of being a top tier team, have been struggling of late, losing 3 of their L/4 overall. It must be noted that WNBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are a long term bad bet losing 34 of their L/38 games SU dating back 21 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average loss coming by 10 ppg which qualifies on this line.

WNBA Road underdogs (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Meanwhile, Minnesota the defending league champs had a 7 game win streak abruptly end last time out, to the lowly Indiana Fever who now have just two wins on the season, by a 71-59 count as -14 point chalk.  That was embarrassing to say the least for the Lynx and their lowest offensive out put since the 2013 season. Before the loss, Minnesota was averaging 85.6 points per game during the team’s seven-game win streaking I'm betting they come out here like gangbusters looking for redemption. 

MINNESOTA is 31-16 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team after 15 or more games are 23-3 ATS L/21 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Lynx to cover 

Make no mistake that the Connecticut Sun are one of the premier teams in this league, but recently have had to deal with an exhausting early season schedule, that effected their play  to an extent, which included playing 4 games in 7 days against Washington , Phoenix, Seattle, and the defending champion Minnesota Lynx.  Now with some much needed rest I expect the Sun will primed fora pay back effort vs another strong side ,their hosts the Seattle Storm who are now playing their 4th game of the week, and on tired legs . With that said, Im betting on the Sun getting us the cover here tonight. 

Miller is 20-9 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days as the coach of CONNECTICUT.

SEATTLE is 9-20 ATS  versus teams who average 42 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last couple of seasons and s 8-17 ATS L/25 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game and 2-9 ATS  versus teams who average 45 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.SEATTLE is 7-17 ATS L/24 against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 season.SEATTLE is 9-21 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA team vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games are 52-17 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on Conneciut to cover

LA played last night and lost to Seattle and are now on tired legs and susceptible to a letdown vs a young Vegas team that has surprised some opponents this season thanks to a talented coach in Lambeer and young group that is on a upward trajectory.

LAS VEGAS is 9-2 ATS off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals over the last 2 seasons and is 8-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or more over the last 2 seasons and also 13-4 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more during the same time perimeters.

Underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are a long term profitable bet 82-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 11-36 SU L/5 seasons for go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Las Vegas Aces to cover

The Liberty after playing a hard fought physical affair vs the Washington Mystics last night in DC  will now be on tired legs and also in a huge emotional letdown spot after losing 80-77 on a last second downtown shot. I know the Chicago Sky may not inspire bettors with their overall record, but they have won 2 straight, and I'm betting won't be easy outs for a NY team that has lost 7 of their L/8 overall and have proven to be bad bets at home vs perceived lower teams with below .500 records like the Sky as the following trends demonstrate.

WNBA (CHICAGO) - with a losing record, in June games are  61-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover

I know the Fever don't inspire bettors, but they are capable of covering here vs a exhausted Connecticut team off a loss to the Mystics last  night .The last time the Fever visited the Sun they lost by 9 points on May 26 this season ( 86-77). CONNECTICUT is 4-15 ATS L/19 in home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or worse). CONNECTICUT is 2-10 ATS L/12 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points .

CONNECTICUT is 1-7 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing  14 or less turnovers/game this season.

INDIANA is 20-8 ATS in road games revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points .

WNBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are 48-15 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites (CONNECTICUT) - with a winning record on the season playing a losing team, in June games `13-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBAHome favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are just 6-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 83% on the blind. 

WNBARoad underdogs of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 31-9 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

MARCO ESTRADA (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)

There is a key long term trend that applies to afternoons game between the Jays and the Astros.
The Blue Jays have lost 20 straight in the last game of a series as a road dog of more than 130 after they lost by three-plus runs , with the last 7 coming by 2 or more runs. ( Toronto lost yesterday by a 7-0 count) Note:Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estradas last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Keuchel the Astros starter took a no-decision against Kansas City in his last trip to the hill, when he scattered six hits over six scoreless innings. The hurler hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 12 innings of work in his last two turns. Keuchel is 3-0 with a 3.62 ERA in four career starts against the Blue Jays and gets the nod today over Estrada a thrower that has been in top form, but does not matchup well vs the Astros offence. TORONTO is 9-20 against the money line against left-handed starters this season with their offence generating 3.9 rpg on a lowly .227 BA. Meanwhile, the Astros have done their best offensive work vs right handers like Estrada averaging 5.4 rpg on a .266 BA.
Astros are 53-19 in their last 72 games vs. a right-handed starter.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (HOUSTON) - starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 50-8 L/21 seasons with the combined average win deficit coming by 2.2 rag, which qualifies this investment option on the run-ine.

Play on the Astros on the run-line -1.5

DANNY DUFFY (L) vs. BRENT SUTER (L)

Brent Suter (8-4, 4.15 ERA) will start for Milwaukee, looking for his fourth consecutive victory. The left-hander has been amazing during his winning streak, recording a 2.84 ERA while holding batters to a .185 average and a .551 OPS.  He is in great form and gets my support to help his team cover on the run-in this afternoon vs a  Royals that are 4-19 since June 1 and have lost 12 of their last 14 games -- six by four or more runs.  It must be noted that the Brewers are 7-0 on the money line in franchise history with Brent Suter as a home favorite when they scored three-plus runs and won in his last start with the victories coming by an average of 5.71 rpg.  

 KANSAS CITY is 7-31  SU vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season losing by an average of 2.3 rpg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers on the run line -1.5 ( Late update)

Phoenix enters on a two-game losing streak after enjoying a eight-game winning streak. During their winning run, the Mercury beat the Liberty 80-74 at Madison Square Garden three weeks ago, and matchup well against them. NY also lost two this past weekend,  as they lost  88-78  to the young  Las Vegas Aces on Friday. In their following game the struggling  Liberty shot just 38.3 % in a ugly  80-54 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks on Sunday and now look like fade material in their current form. Both teams are desperate to get back in the win column, but team is superior to the other, and gets my support on a short chalk line.

NEW YORK is 1-9 ATS   when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons

WNBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - after scoring 55 points or less are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate with the average margin loss coming by an average of 7.2 ppg which then qualifies on this spread line.

WNBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - after allowing 75 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or less are 35-4 SU L/21 seasons  with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.2 ppg

Play on Phoenix to cover

Dallas is forming into top gear as was evident when they hammered the LA Sparks by a 100-72 count in their last trip to the hardwood. Meanwhile, the Storm look to be trending downward, after a loss to the young Vegas Aces last week and than had to play a top tier of defence to defeat lowly Indiana last time out. From my own perspective it just seems like Storm has lost its offensive flow, which is not a good omen for them facing a side that is starting to heat up offensively. With that said, lets lay some short lumber with the confident home side with momentum on their sides .

Storm are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.

Wings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Wings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.Wings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Wings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Wings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, on Sunday games are 8-31 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of 7 points a game.

WNBA team vs the money line (SEATTLE) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 44% or worse on the season, after a game where a team made 55% of their free throws or worse are 20-62 L/21 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors with the average loss coming by 7.2 pig.

WNBA Underdogs vs the money line (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are a long term bad bet , on a short line as they are just 142-358 for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin loss coming 5.2 peg.

Play on Dallas Wings to cover 

IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R)

The lines-makers know well the odds of the Royals winning this game and have the same trends and data that I have on this tilt which I include here below.

The Astros are 32-0 SU as a 200+ favorite after they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent and it is not a series opener.Since the start of 2017 campaign, the Astros have won 14 in a row with Lance McCullers as a 125-plus favorite when he went six-plus innings in his last start.As pertains to the run-in it must be noted that Houston has won 7 straight on the money line in this spot this season with every win by multiple runs. 

Houston Right-hander Lance McCullers (8-3, 3.77 ERA) gets the nod in the middle game of the series for Houston. He is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA over four career starts against the Royals. Meanwhile,the Royals will answer back right-hander Ian Kennedy (1-7, 5.31 ERA) on Saturday. Kennedy is winless over his last 13 starts, one behind Athletics right-hander Chris Bassitt for the longest active streak in the majors. He is 0-7 with a 6.12 ERA since his only win on April and is fade material inches current form.KENNEDY is 1-10  against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record) losing SU by an average of 4 rpg. 

Play on the Houston Astros on the run-line -1.5

Washington owned the Chicago Sky in their last meeting on June 19 by a 88 -60 count, and are now only being asked to lay 5 points in the rematch. I know playing on the road is different than hosting, but it became painfully obvious to me that the Mystics match up extremely well vs the Sky, and another conclusive win is not out of the question and actually a viable wagering option.
Chicago has lost 8 of their L/9 overall and 5 in a row including the above mentioned loss to the Mystics and are descending quickly into the bottomless abyss of the realm of WNBA cellar dwellers.

CHICAGO is 1-11 ATS (in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses dating back to last season.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in home games off a road loss against a division rival over the last few seasons.


WNBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - poor defensive team - allowing 73+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 8-51 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 9 ppg.

WNBA Underdogs vs the money line (CHICAGO) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season, after a game where a team made 30% of their shots or worse are 9-50 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 9 ppg.

WNBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, vs. division opponents are 3-36 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 11.6 ppg.

WNBA Favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team - shooting 44% or better on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 30% of their shots or worse are 29-2 with the average margin of victory coming by 9.7 ppg.

Play on the Washington Mystics to cover  

 The Winnipeg Blue  Bombers are of a grueling loss to the Edmonton Eskimos  by a 33-30 count last week in their home opener, blowing a late lead , that will now have them in an emotional letdown scenario. Also here on the road with stating QB Matt Nichols ( Knee ) his inexperienced backups may have some problems dealing with an improved Al's defense.  Meanwhile, this will be Montreal's first home game with HC Mike Sherman at the helm, and with his team backed by a rowdy home crowd will be primed and motivated to move this franchise back to the illustrious history it had previously enjoyed in the CFL prior to the last ugly couple of seasons.

O'Shea is 3-13 ATS  after a loss by 8 or less points as the coach of WINNIPEG.

CFL Underdogs or pick (MONTREAL) - in the first two weeks of the season are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Underdogs or pick (MONTREAL) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 61% or worse are 37-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Montreal Als to cover

Dallas has been playing well of late but is on very tired legs as they play their 4th game in 7 days and are at a disadvantage in this spot  vs a explosive Minnesota Lynx side. Meanwhile, Minnesota the defending WNBA champions after  starting their season slowly in hangover mode ,  finally came out and looked fresh against the NY Liberty last time out and pounded them by a 85-71 count . The Lynx are also well rested with this being only their 2nd game   in 10 days. This is a situation where the hungry well rested home team with superior fire power looks very much like a viable option, at anything under 11 points according to my power ranking line projections.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 51-15 L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 35-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Lynx to cover

 Washington has played great at times this season, and looked completely out of sync on other occasions. They have one win in their L/5 games, vs Connecticut, and were lucky to come put of that game with a victory despite of a 30 point half time lead. Meanwhile, the Chicago Sky have lost 4 straight, but from a matchup perspective look like they could be competitive in this spot vs D.Jeckyll and M.Hyde Mystics side that are just 1-5 ATS in 6 home games this season. Also from a historical league wide data base point of view , struggling teams like Chicago have actually been long term good bets while teams like Washington have not been( See below)

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - average shooting team (40.5-43.5%) against an struggling defensive team (46% or worse) are 34-15 SU for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Road teams (CHICAGO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses are 80-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors . WNBA Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, in June games are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  82% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 18 or less fouls/game  dating back to  last season.WASHINGTON is 12-24 ATS  versus teams who make 5 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last few seasons.WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS  L/40 in home games after allowing 80 points or more in 2 straight games.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover

 DYLAN COVEY (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)

The Tribe has lost 4 of their L/6 overall and have looked a little wobbly of late. In last weeks series vs the White Sox they lost 2 of 4 games, and had lost five straight to the Minnesota Twins - including the first two in their weekend set - before picking up ad desperation  4-1 win in the finale Sunday afternoon.  The Indians have scored a total of just 18 runs in their L/6 games ( 3rpg) and could find themselves struggling to move runners again vs the Pale Hose starter Covey who is 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA since being recalled from the minors May 19. He was on the hill when the White Sox beat the  Indians in south side Chicago last week by a 3-2 score.

Meanwhile, Indians hurler BAUER in his career starts has seen his team go  just 13-19   against the money line in home games against division opponents. Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.White Sox are 4-1 in Coveys last 5 starts.

CLEVELAND have lost 14 of their L/21  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the +1.5 runline

 Bill Laimbeer's Aces , led by rookie A'ja Wilson, returns to the Mandalay Bay Events Center on the Las Vegas Strip Sunday to take on the Brittany Griner, Diana Taurasi and the 9-3 Phoenix Mercury. Vegas are coming off a road trip where they played well, despite a loss last time out, and showed progress capturing a couple of wins. Now with the confidence sky high I'm betting this young team will come out here ready to upset a hot Mercury side on a 7 game win streak. Meanwhile, the Phoenix is coming off an 89-72 home victory on Saturday night against the exhausted looking Connecticut Sun and extended its winning streak to seven games. In their only other meeting this season, the Mercury won 72-66 and I'm betting the Aces stay within the number again and get us the cover.

LAS VEGAS is 17-4 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. LAS VEGAS is 9-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last couple seasons.

Lambeer is 34-18 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival in all games he has coached .Brondello is 13-23 ATS L/35 after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of PHOENIX.LAS VEGAS is 15-31 ATS in home games after a game where a team made 45% of their 3 point shots or better which happened vs Connecticut yesterday.

WNBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LAS VEGAS) - good ball handling team - committing 14 or less turnovers/game, on Sunday games 29-8 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate on the blind.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, on Sunday games are 10-29 SU L/21 seasons for a go against SU 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vegas to cover

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. BRAD KELLER (R)

Houston is merciless and the Royals are just plain bad.

McCullers the Astros starter set a career high in wins (eight) by beating the A’s on Tuesday night in Oakland. He has thrown at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts. Of the 35 earned runs he has allowed, 15 have come in two rough starts and  now he gets the nod today. Meanwhile, this is not a good spot vs Brad Keller who is making just his 4th career start. Houston is a mean offensive machine, averaging 6 rpg on the road and could easily beat up on this kid today.

HOUSTON is 21-4 SU  in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season with the average combined margin of victory clicking in at 4.1 rpg. KANSAS CITY is 6-30   against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 over the last few seasons with the average margin defeat coming by 3.4 rpg.

The Royals  have lost 15 straight 140+ dog off a home game in which they struck out at least ten times which happened yesterday in a 10-2 loss to the Astros. Actually the L/5 times when this trend is in play the Royals were smashed and lost  by an average of 7.5 rpg.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the runline -1.5

After a fast start last season, the BC Lions fell apart as the season progressed, and lost 9 of their L/11 games thanks to offense that had very little flow as is evident by scoring 25 or less points in 5 of their L/7 tilts. The Als have a new offensive coordinator but its the talent on board, that does not mix well, and I'm doubting a significant increase in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Montreal is off a horrendous season, but now with former GB Packers Mike Sherman in town and the speedy WR Chris Williams haul down passes their on their way to a rebound season, and more importantly  be competitive here tonight.

CFL Underdogs SU (MONTREAL) - terrible passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 64% or worse, in non-conference games are 22-11 SU L/5 22 seasons.

CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MONTREAL) - team that had a losing record last season, in non-conference games are 36-7 ATS L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFL Road underdogs or pick (MONTREAL) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 61% or worse are 26-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MONTREAL) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 61% or worse are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Montreal to cover

Calgary annihilated the Ti-Cats 60-1 in an embarrassing affair here last season. You can bet the Ti -Cats will be hell bent on revenge and more importantly making sure they don't get run over again. Hamilton has a lot of speed on offense and can take advantage of the off season changes the Stampeders have made on defense. I know that Calgary QB bo Levi Mitchell is a stud QB ,and has a lot of weapons to work with, but Hamilton's newly revamped D, might surprise us here today. With that said, Ill recommend we take  take the points .

HAMILTON is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last few seasons.

CFL Underdogs vs. the money line (HAMILTON) - terrible passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 64% or worse, in non-conference games are 22-11 L/22 seasons for a 68% SU conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at Team 27 Opp 24.2 .

CFL Underdogs vs. the money line (HAMILTON) - terrible passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 64% or worse, in non-conference games are 36-7 ATS L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Road underdogs or pick (HAMILTON) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 61% or worse are 26-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Road underdogs or pick (HAMILTON) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 61% or better are 23-2 ATS L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAMILTON) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 61% or worse are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Hamilton Ti Cats to cover

JORDAN LYLES (R) vs. SEAN NEWCOMB (L)

The Padres ended an eight-game drought in Atlanta on Friday night, beating the National League East-leading Braves 9-3 for their 12th victory in the past 17 games. Those 5 losses, however, have all come by multiple runs.The Braves bullpen blew a lead last night  , but it must be noted that  ATLANTA is 6-0 against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season.

Lyles the Padres starter today allowed 11 hits in consecutive starts, and in his outing Monday vs. St. Louis he recorded only three swings and misses on 102 pitches.Lyles has a 6.35 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Braves, with the loss in San Diego last week his only decision, allowing 8 runs in just 4.1 innings of work. LYLES when he starts has seen his team go 10-37 in his career against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 with the average margin of defeat coming by 2 rpg.

Meanwhile Sean Newcombe is off a rare bad start last time out and ready to rebound. the southpaw has had a tremendous season overall recording a 2.92 ERA and has been solid at home vs sub par opponents going 5-0 in L/5 starts . Newcombe  has not  allowed a run in his 12 career innings against San Diego. I'm betting the Braves have the edge with Newcombe here again.

ATLANTA is 21-7  against the money line after a loss this season with the average  win coming by more than 2 rpg.  Atlantas last 8 wins have all come by 2 runs or more and they once again have the edge here on the -1.5 value runline.

Play on Atlanta -1.5 on the runline

MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. MARCO ESTRADA (R)

Scherzer the Nationals starter has made eight career starts against the Blue Jays, posting a stingy 2.15 ERA and averaging 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He has thrown at least seven innings and struck out at least nine in three consecutive starts. Needless to say hes owned them and I'm betting nothing will change today. Note: The Nationals have won 15 straight on the money-line by an average of 3.3 rpg with Scherzer as a favorite of more than 135 when they lost his last start.Meanwhile, the Jays starting hurler  Estrada (3-6, 5.09 ERA) is coming off  a quality start   but  that was against a weak, Baltimore offense .Blue Jays are 0-5 in Estradas last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. 

WASHINGTON is 41-9 lL50  against the money line as a road favorite of -175 or more with the average win coming by 2.2 rpg, which qualifies on the runline option.SCHERZER is 23-5   against the money line in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game  with the average margin of victory coming by 3 rpg.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265  or less) against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 44-10 with the average  with the average scores coming by more than -1.5 runline offer.

Play on the Washington Nationals -1.5 on the runline

The Mystics are off a enormously exhausting game vs the Connecticut Sun last time out ( 2 days ago). In the first half of that game they were explosive and jumped out to huge 30 point  lead at the half, only to run out of gas, and allow the talented and never say die Sun to get back into the game, before rallying late for the upset win. The Mystics are now in a huge letdown spot vs a very good LA Sparks team that I'm betting will take advantage of this situation today on their way to a cover on the road as short chalk.

LA is 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 in this series including 3-0 SU/ATS here in Washington.

WASHINGTON is 6-16 ATS in as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with the average defict clickingi n under 10 ppg. WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS versus teams who are called for 18 or less fouls/game over the last  few seasons. LOS ANGELES is 23-12 ATS   versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game dating back to last season. Thibault is 10-20 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of WASHINGTON ( Opp 82.7 Wash 76.7)

WNBA  team vs the money line (LOS ANGELES) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 23-6 SU for a 79% conversion rate last 22 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 10,2 ppg.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover

Two teams off 12-6 campaigns go head to head today here in Winnipeg in the opening game of the season for both clubs. Edmonton has two veteran QBs with Reilly and Glen at the helm of the offense, but have lost offensive weapons in the off season. The defense on the other hand despite of some veteran stalwarts like Almondo Sewell are a over rated group in my humble betting opinion, and susceptible to down campaign.  Meanwhile, the Bombers despite of having to replace starting QB Matt Nichols because of a knee injury, are more than capable of competing with Alex Ross and Chris Streveler under center, who will be buoyed with Darvin Adams and Andrew Harris as well as all purpose star RB Weston Dresser. On defense the Bombers return their two best tacklers, Loffler & Santo-Knox and one of the best pass rushers in the league Jackson Jeffcoat.

With that said, I expect the home crowd will help motivate this under appreciated Bombers team to being an extremely competitive opponent for the visiting Eskimos.

WINNIPEG is 11-2 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last few seasons. HC Maas is 4-12 ATS  L/16 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of EDMONTON.

Winnipeg is 4-2 SU L/7 meetings in this series.

CFL Underdogs vs. the money line (WINNIPEG) - terrible passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 64% or worse are 36-25 L/22 seasons for a 59% SU conversion rate with the average deficits coming out at an aggregate of 0. This 61 game long term sample size has seen these types of games play out as even on the scoreboard.

CFL Underdogs vs. the money line (WINNIPEG) - in the first two weeks of the season are 21-10 L/5 seasons wit the average margin between both opponents clicking in at 5.6 ppg Underdog 28.3 Fav 23.2.

CFL Underdogs or pick (WINNIPEG) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 61% or worse are 35-7  ATS L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Winnipeg to cover

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. FRANKIE MONTAS (R)

The Astros have owned the first two games of the series between American League West rivals,  winning by  6-3 and 13-5 deficits . More of the same one sided action I'm betting is on todays card, as star hurler Justin Verlander goes to the hill for the Astros.  Verlander  (8-2, 1.45 ERA),  has been particularly dominating on the road where he has garnered a 6-1 record and miniscule 0.96 ERA this season.  Yes, I know he is going against a As pitcher Montas  getting a lot of accolades for a 3-0 start to his career, but two of those wins came against light hitting KC and one against a Arizona team that was struggling offensively when he faced them. This is a whole different kind of offense he will face today, as he goes against a Astros team that has averaged 6 rpg on the road this season and merciless in their domination of their opposition, putting the pedal to the metal from1 through 9.   It must be noted that Astros  have won 18 straight  SU as a 125-plus regular season road favorite when they are off a five-plus run win and it is not a series opener, winning by an average of whopping 6.22 rpg, while the Athletics  in their L/9  at home off a home game in which they struck out at least ten times, which happened in yesterdays 13-5 loss  have scored an average of  just 1.89 rpg in the follow up. 

HOUSTON is 18-4  against the money line in road games after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span dating back to last season winning by an average of 4 rpg.

HOUSTON is 19-4  SU  in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season with the average margin of victory coming by 4.2 rpg. OAKLAND is 9-24  SU  in home games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last few seasons losing by an average of 2.2 rpg.

OAKLAND is 2-12 L/14  SU  in home games revenging 4 or more straight losses vs opponent  with the average loss coming by 2.8 rpg.

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (HOUSTON) - good offensive team (5.1 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 33-14 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 2.8 rpg.

Play on the Houston Astros -1.5 Runline

Bill Lambeer knows the Liberty well after being the HC there for 5 seasons. I'm betting he has his young but talented Aces ready to compete here , despite of being on tired legs after a OT victory yesterday in Atlanta and 3rd game in 5 days. Note:  LAS VEGAS is 11-3 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last few seasons.

LAS VEGAS is 15-4 ATS   in road games after a non-conference game over the last few seasons and  is 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers  and also is 16-7 ATS L/23 against Eastern conference opponents.

NEW YORK is 1-8 ATS  in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last few seasons and is 3-14 ATS    in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.

WNBA Underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - below average  team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are 44-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Vegas Aces to cover

The LA Sparks played their best game of the season , winning a wire to wire tilt against the Chicago Sky last time out after playing their worst game of the season, against Seattle the game before that in a ugly DD loss. In the last win the Sparks played lights out , and exerted a lot of energy and could easily find themselves in a emotional letdown spot here today vs what I'm starting to believe is a strong Dream defense. I was not sold on the Dream prior to that game, and still stubbornly not completely sold on them going forward, but they did get my attention and respect when they upset the Seattle Storm right in their own back yard last time out as 8 point road dogs. Also previous to that the Dream handed a strong Connecticut Sun team their only loss of the season to this point. I now do believe that the Dream are defensively as good as advertised and in a game that expect to be physical and fairly low scoring I'm betting getting 10 points makes for a feasible wagering option.

The following trend shows a divergence of reverting back to the norm after top tier charity stripe shooting, something the Sparks just achieved. FT shooting I'm betting will be the difference here today in what myself and the linemakers believe to be a fairly low scoring tilt. LOS ANGELES is 64-94 ATS after 2 straight games making 80% of their free throws or better.

HC Agler in his L/12 in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of LOS ANGELES has seen an average margin -click in at LAS 76.7 Opp 71.9. ( less than 5 points)

WNBA Home favorites of 9.5 or more points (LOS ANGELES) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in May, June, or July games are just 42-86 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover

The game is a rematch between Phoenix (7-3) and Dallas from the season-opener on May 18 in Phoenix, won by the Mercury 86-78. Phoenix enters this game with a lot of momentum as is evident by their 5 game winning streak. It must be noted that the Mercury have top tier head on head collision with a super charged Connecticut team after this game, and I'm sure they want to go into that tilt with a winning mind set, so a look ahead scenario I'm betting will effect them positively and not in a negative way. Tonight I'm going to ride this run away freight train right through Dallas . My own power rankings suggest from a neutral court perspective that the Mercury are the superior team by 4 to 5 points, thus betting into what is essentially a pickem situation on the road does not deter me in the slightest.

PHOENIX is 16-7 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game dating back to last season.PHOENIX is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games off a win against a division rival.

DALLAS is 11-23 ATS   when playing 3 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (76 or more  PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half 41-13 SU L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Road favorites (PHOENIX) - good shooting team - shooting 44% OR BETTER on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% OR MORE of their shots are 41-16 ATS L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury

Las Vegas has tasted victory only once this year and was the worst team in the league in 2017 and another victory may not be out of the question tonight vs 0-8 Indiana. As the WNBA's 11th-place team last season, Indiana was swept by the 12th-place Stars (now Aces), losing the three meetings in 2017 by an average of 11.7 points per game and look like fade material again vs an under rated Aces side that despite of ugly 1-7 record has shown some life this season and competitiveness.

INDIANA is 3-11 ATS    in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last few seasons.LAS VEGAS is 16-4 ATS L/20  after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last few seasons. LAS VEGAS is 6-0 ATS   in road games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers dating back to last season.

 WNBA Road underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses are 67-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Las Vegas ( Late Steam)

LUIS SEVERINO (R) vs. SETH LUGO (R)

Severino continued to pitch like an ace his last time out, striking out 10 over 8 innings of 2-run, 4-hit ball to beat the Tigers. Severino is also 7-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his last 10 starts and the Yankees are 12-1 in his 13 starts I'm betting he keeps rolling here vs a struggling NY Mets offense, that have scored just 11 runs in the last eight games overall. Severino is 2-0 against the Mets and has not allowed a run in two appearances (one start) spanning 10 2/3 innings.

SEVERINO team when he starts is 32-9 SU vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons with the average margin of victory coming 2.8 RPG.

Meanwhile, Seth Lugo the Mets starter despite of being a stable hurler, will go against an explosive Yanks batting order that has lit up RHP this season averaging 5.8 rpg with 59 HRS.


The Mets have lost 16 straight on the moneyline and 11 straight on the Runline as a home dog after a game as a home dog in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not a series opener.NY METS are 0-9 against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) dating back to last season with the average margin of defeat coming by 4.2 RPG.
NY METS are 0-9 against the money line in home games after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons losing on average by 2 rpg. NY METS are 1-22 SU as an underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 3 seasons losing SU by a whopping 4.4 rpg.


MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (NY METS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 7-39 for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors with average margin loss coming by 2.2 rpg.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the RL -1.5

 The Dream opened their three-game road trip with an 87-83 victory Friday night in Las Vegas against the Aces and exerted a lot of energy in that game , and looked a little wiped out late and we could see them on tired legs in this spot. Atlanta is improved, but its still early and I'm not a believer just yet. Meanwhile, the Storm are coming off an 88-63 victory at Los Angeles and are proving to be pretty good team, with a lot of explosiveness offensively and a defense that is very under rated. The Storms coach Hughes has a solid reputation as a defensive guru in his 17 years as a coach in the WNBA and something that I'm keeping in eye on for future totals wagers. For now I'm betting on the Seattle D to continue to play solidly and for their offense to light up an over rated Atlanta Dream defense that is getting far to many accolades based on a small sample size.

ATLANTA is 8-21 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 73+ points/game over the last few seasons with the average margin loss coming by 8.6 ppg. ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS    in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more losing by ana average of 10.8 ppg.

WNBA Home favorites SU (SEATTLE) - a very good team (+7 or more PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after scoring 80 points or more are 35-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by more than 12.5 ppg.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 3-22 SU 5 seasons losing  by an average of 11.7 ppg.

WNBA Home favorites (SEATTLE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 27-6 L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 73+ points/game on the season, after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 12-39 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GS leads 3-0

There is a story from Greek mythology about Narcissus a man who fell in love with himself after looking into a pool of water. Now in a tongue and cheek manner, I expect  King LeBron James  a self confessed narcissist  , to be hell bent on getting his limelight back after Golden States super star  Durant took it away from him  in game 4 of this series. Don't take me wrong LeBron James is arguably  the best hoops player and overall athlete of this generation, and I respect his talent greatly , so I'm not trying to be make derogatory comments about him. But if you ever listen to him you will come to the conclusion he's in love with himself, and like all great players carries around a huge ego.  I'm betting that  behemoth ego will be a motivating factor into making sure his team does not go down without a fight. I'm not saying it will be enough for a Cleveland victory, but a cover in my humble opinion is a very viable wagering option here this evening in front of the Cleveland faithful.

Golden St  is 0-14 ATS off a game as a road chalk when Durant shot better than 34.5% and was their high-scorer. The Cavs have covered 8 straight times  at home by more than 10 ppg  with rest off a loss as a home dog when they lost three straight vs current opponent and are a perfect  6-0 ATS L/6  as a dog when out looking for same season revenge for a home defeat.

GOLDEN STATE is 11-20 ATS off a road win this season and 10-21 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.Warriors are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 1 days rest.Warriors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.

NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 24-34 SU L/5 seasons for a less than viable bet.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Atlanta (3-3) is an improved team, but I'm not ready to buy into them being this big road favorite, even against a young inexperienced team like Las Vegas (1-5). I respect the talent the  Aces have with the likes of Wilson and Plum and I' betting they will prove themselves more than capable of being handful for a over rated Dream team that is just 2-11 ATS  L/13  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last few seasons.

ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS L/18 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS   in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are a bankroll expanding 40-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Las Vegas to cover

Two long time rivals the Connecticut Sun and the NY Liberty go head to head today in game that offers value on the home underdog . I know the Sun have run over a lot of opponents this season on their way to 5-1 record and the Liberty are 2-3 and currently a below .500 team. However my team vs team and player vs player and systems vs system power rankings suggest that the Liberty are well suited to compete vs the explosive Sun and take advantage of a tired group playing their fourth consecutive road game in a week.  Note: The Suns looked winded in their first loss of the season, last time out in Atlanta .The Liberty are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

NEW YORK is 14-5 ATS  after playing a home game over the last couple of seasons.

WNBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss 34-14 L/5 seasons for a 69% SU conversion rate for bettors on the blind. ( The Mercury upset the Liberty in their last home game)

Play on the NY Liberty to cover

A lot has been said, about how amazing  LeBron James is. After all the Cavs don't run a system, they run on LeBrons whims and moods, and of his course his emmense talent, so his team mates are almost always unbalanced and don't know what to expect, making them fade material against this type of opponent.  The  media continually extolls his greatness to the NBA masses, and centers most of its attention on him. The Warriors offensive explosiveness however, is taking a back seat to the LeBron show in the media ,  and little has been mentioned about the  way the Dubs can go from partaking in a close game to almost magically turning a confrontation into a route within a few minutes. I'm starting  to feel the defending NBA champs are feeling a little disrespected ,  and will be out to show the world that this is a team sport and not a one man show.  I'm betting the Golden State Warriors make a statement here this evening in game 3 of this series, and put a pivotal nail in the coffin of  Cavaliers championship hopes tonight right in front of  the Cleveland faithful .

CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS  after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season losing by more than 5 ppg.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 3-38 L/5 seasons with the combined average margin of defeat coming by 8.5 ppg which solidifies my thoughts on whether the Warriors can cover.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are a long term good bet going 155-86 for a 64% conversion rate dating back 21 seasons.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

BLAINE HARDY (L) vs. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)

Boston's  southpaw starter tonight Eduardo Rodrguez is currently in top form and has settled into a nice rhythm  , allowing three earned runs or less in his last five starts.  He gets the nod from me tonight vs a very inconsistent Detroit Tigers offense

These below straight up trends correlate to my -1.5 runline stance.

RODRIGUEZ team when he starts  is 14-1   against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by 2.4 rpg. BOSTON is 32-6  against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more over the last 2 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 2.2 rpg. DETROIT is 57-179   against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 1997 with the average loss coming by more than 2.4 rpg.

The Boston Red Sox have won 20 straight games as a home 200+ favorite when they are off two victories in which they never trailed, with the last one coming as chalk, with the average margin of victory clicking in at 5.3 rpg.The Detroit Tigers have lost 28 straight times  as a 125-plus underdog when they are off a game as a dog in which Miguel Cabrera was hitless losing SU with the average loss coming by 3.6 rpg ( 5-23 on the Runline)

MLB Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+135 to -190) (BOSTON) - good offensive team (5.1 or more  runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), playing on Wednesday are 39-14 L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate on the blind with the average margin of victory coming by 2.8 rpg.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the -1.5 runline

BRAD KELLER (R) vs. ANDREW HEANEY (L)

Heaney the Angles starter gave up three earned runs over five innings, with seven strikeouts, against Kansas City on April 13 and matches up well vs the very inconsistent KC batting order. It must be noted despite of a few struggles of late, Heaney (2-4, 3.66) allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts from April 27 to May 25. . The southpaw gets my backing tonight vs a KC Royals team that ha scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their L/11 overall games.

LA ANGELS are 15-2   against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. with by an average  margin of 3.3rpg game going on the board .LA ANGELS are 12-2    against the money line when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 38% or less ) this season winning by an average of 3 rpg.

Play on the LA Angels on the runline -1.5

JUNIOR GUERRA (R) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)

Kluber the Indians starter tonight pitched  six brilliant shutout innings against the White Sox on Wednesday, piling up 10 strikeouts with zero walks. The Tribe ace is riding a streak of 112 batters faced with zero walks and has a 0.68 ERA in his past four turns and get the nod here on the -1.5 run line. I know the Tribe have struggled a little bit of late, but it must be noted that CLEVELAND is a perfect 11-0  against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by a whopping 4.1 rpg. ( Indians 7.6 Opp 3.5 which gives credence to my -1.5 runline call this evening.

I know Guerra the Brewers starter is in good form but this Cleveland offense when motivated can put a beat down on the best of hurlers. The Indians are the only team in the majors with five players with 10 or more home runs, and five with 30 or more RBIs: Jose Ramirez (18 homers, 41 RBIs), Encarnacion (16 and 40), Francisco Lindor (14 and 35), Yonder Alonso (11 and 33) and Michael Brantley (10 and 38).

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL are 50-7 L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 2.8 rpg.

Play on the Cleveland Indians -1.5 runline

Two teams both off victories vs the defending WNBA Champion Minnesota Lynx play each other this afternoon. PHOENIX is 7-0 ATS   in road games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.Dream are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win.

Dream are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.

My own power ranking suggest that Phoenix is the superior side, and the early market also agrees with my assessments.

WNBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more in 2 straight games are 22-55 L/5 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games are 36-71 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover

Connecticut (3-0) will make its road debut after winning each of its first three games on its home court this season. Here on the road against a competitive opponent being this big a road favorite makes for viable opportunity to cash with the well rested home dog Chicago  (2-2).

Sun are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Sky are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Sky are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

Below are some league wide SU trends that give credence to us taking the points.

WNBA Road teams  SU (CONNECTICUT) - horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 9-24 L/21 seasons for a go against 73% SU conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams  SU (CONNECTICUT) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 10-25 L/35 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover

ANDREW HEANEY (L) vs. RYAN CARPENTER (L)

The Halos starter Hanley has pitched quite well of late, but it must be noted  the Angels  southpaw has seen his team go  1-5 in his  last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance .  He lost a 2-1 decision to the Yanks, last time out and could easily find himself in a natural letdown spot. The Angels are also 1-6 in Heaneys last 7 road starts. He has also walked 9 batters in his L/3 starts which has  a way of manifesting itself over time in a negative outcome  scenario algorithm according to my power rankings charts.  I know Carpenter his Tigers  pitching opponent may not inspire bettors, but the Angles have been inconsistent of late offensively, scoring 1, 1, 3, 1 runs in 4 of their L/6 games. From my perspective there is enough value here for us to take the underdog on the +1.5 runline based on SU data.

DETROIT is 9-3   against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season and is 7-2   against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better this season.DETROIT is 11-5   against the money line in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.DETROIT is 10-4  against the money line in home games in May games this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are not quality bets, going just 60-66 L/21 seasons.

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the RUNLINE +1.5

Washington and Seattle are looking pretty good at the moment, with the Storm garnering a 3-1 record and the Mystics at a perfect 4-0. Three of the Mystics 4 wins have come on the road but they have a recent history of flat road performances, and  are is 2-10 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons losing SU by just under 10 ppg.

WASHINGTON is also  5-13 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.   The Mystics are just 4-14 SU here in Seattle, and I'm betting on another inconsistent effort away from DC , with added problem of being banged up and  having to find a replacement options for the injured trio of

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more are 24-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate winning by an average of 12.3 ppg.

WNBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off an home win scoring 85 or more points, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 29-65 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover

The Liberty have started their season with a 0-2 record, after a hard fought gut wrenching loss to the defending champion Minnesota Lynx and could now easily find themselves in a letdown situation vs a under rated  2-2 Dallas Wings side  that is a capable of pulling off the SU upset. The Wings took out the Liberty and preseason action by 10 points and matched up well against them overall. These teams played last September in regular season action and the Liberty pulled off a hard fought 82-81 win and another closely contested affair according to my own matchup stats is a high probability situation that warrants backing the underdog. It must be noted that the Liberty are expected to be without three guards in Brittany Boyd (Achilles), Sugar Rodgers (sore left knee) and Epiphanny Prince (concussion) .

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 16-33 L/5 seasons with the average margin deficit coming by 3 ppg.

WNBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DALLAS) - after allowing 70 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more are 70-38 L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average margin deficit clicking in a 1.5 ppg.

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover

LUCAS GIOLITO (R) vs. MIKE CLEVINGER (R)

My own power ranking suggest this is a huge pitching mismatch, and the runline is a very viable option here in this spot play. I know that the Tribes starting hurler  Clevinger has been a hard luck hurler in his last few efforts, despite of some decent  work, but I look for his team mates to back him up and  buoy him to victory here. It must be noted that the Tribe are a perfect  25-0 on the money-line  as a 120-or more  favorite when they are off a game as home chalk and they lost the last two games their starter started, as long as that thrower went a combined 8-plus innings in those two defeats. It must be noted that the  average  margin of victory has come  by a WHOPPING  5.02 rpg  and Indians have  cashed 11 straight  for their backers on the -1.5 runline under those above mentioned parameters.

Lucas Giolito the Pale Hose starter owns a ugly 8.31 ERA in his L/3 starts, which is not a good omen for him and his team as the Tribe are heating up offensively and scored 8 and 10 runs vs the vaunted Houston Astros pitching staff this past weekend and scored 9 runs yesterday and the first game of this series in a victory. The Indians are now averaging around 6 rpg this season, at home.

CHI WHITE SOX are 3-19 SU vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less  errors/game this season with the average margin loss coming by 2.4 ppg.

MLB  Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 or higher) (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start are 8-37 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors, with the average margin loss coming by 3.5 rpg.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the -1.5 runline

Bill Lambeer has assembled some decent young talent in Las Vegas and they should not be underestimated here at home vs a Seattle team on tired legs and in an emotional letdown situation  after a hard fought come from behind over time victory vs Chicago last time out. I'l gladly takes the points with a hungry home team looking for positive momentum.

SEATTLE is 4-12 ATS  after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons and are 5-16 ats last 21 after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after scoring 40 points  are 8-23 L21 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vegas to cover

 JORDAN LYLES (R) vs. ALEX WOOD (L)

The Dodgers are finally getting over last seasons,  play off hangover, and starting to notch wins (7-1 L/8). They were hard luck recipients of a lot of bad breaks earlier this season, as was evident by  the Dodgers  plus-19 run differential but a below .500 23-27 record.

Today the pitching matchup I'm betting favors the Dodgers as Alex  Wood  as he  goes to the hill in top form. Wood has garnered  a very viable 3.32 ERA over 10 starts during the season's first two months. He  is 4-2 in 13 appearances (nine starts) over his career against the Padres, while posting a 2.39 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Padres return fire with Lyles who despite of decent starts of late  is just  0-3 with a 6.97 ERA in 15 career appearances against the Dodgers, six of them starts. My own power rankings suggest that the Dodgers nine matchup well vs the righty hurler. Note: LYLES when he starts has seen his team go 2-18 L/20 against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 losing SU by an average of 3.1 rpg.

LA DODGERS are 13-0 SU in  line in home games after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons. which happened last time out, with the average margin of victory coming by 3.3 rpg.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start are 8-68 L/21 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate over the L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 2.7 rpg , which makes the runline option here a tangible proposition.

Play on the LA Dodgers on the runline -1.5

The Connecticut Sun blasted out of the gate this season with a huge win vs the Las Vegas Aces by a 101-65 count, and than followed that up with a hard fought come from behind 102-94  win vs a top tier LA Sparks team. That last game, was exhausting both physically and mentally and now a natural letdown scenario is a strong possibility, as I'm betting they will take more casual approach to this  game against an Indiana side that is a lowly  0-4 on the season.

CONNECTICUT is 7-18 ATS L/25 in home games off 2 or more consecutive home wins .

NBA Road teams (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 46-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in May, June, or July games are 41-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2


The young legs of the Boston Celtics and the top tier coaching of Brad Stevens, is having a huge impact on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who for the most part are the superior team on paper, but the least consistent, and tired looking of the two teams at the moment. The Celtics are just wearing the Cavaliers down, now with a bigger lineup, and even though I expect LeBron to come out and once again put on a show I'm betting it won't be enough to the Cavs a cover tonight. At the outset of this series, I thought the Cavaliers just had to much talent, for the young Celtics , but Stevens has assembled a special hardworking team, and their capable of an outright upset vs a Cavaliers side that is showing its age, and mental wear an tear of recent play off failures . I'm also remembering the game 7 tilt where they barely got by the Pacers and are lucky to be here. With that said, lets take the points with the Celtics .

CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 6-20 ATS after scoring 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. BOSTON is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season.BOSTON is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season and v is 38-17 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-20 ATS failing to cover by just under 9 ppg with rest off a 10+ loss as a dog when they are facing a team that is drawing an average of less than 20.25 fouls per game.Cleveland is 0-17 ATS failing to cover by an average of 10.5 ppg at home off a road game in which Lebron scored at least 14 points fewer than he did in their previous game.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Chicago has started their season at 2-0 and they are looking pretty strong in their current form and possible dark horse play off contenders after a dismal season in 2017. Even though their four-year streak of playoff qualification came to an end, the team did end in a positive direction at the end of last season. Point guard Courtney Vandersloot set the WNBA record for highest assist average for a season (8.1), while Allie Quigley made her first All-Star team and won the league’s 3-point contest and its extending into this season. I'm betting Atlanta will be over matched in this tilt.

ATLANTA is 10-21 ATS vs. division opponents over the last few seasons. Chicago has won 3 of the L/4 meetings here on their own floor.

WNBA team vs the money line (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Wednesday nights are 14-35 L/21 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate with the average margin loss coming by 5 ppg.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after a loss by 10 points or more are 14-42 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors with the average margin loss coming by 6.2 ppg.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

Golden State is an 8 to 8.5-point favorite in Game 4. The betting line  I'm betting is very beatable based on past performances by the Warriors at home in Oakland, California

.Since Kevin Durant came over to the  Warriors via free agency, Golden State has gone 16-0 in home playoff games,  with the average margin of victory coming by an astonishing 17.1 points per game. The team is 7-0 at Oracle Arena in their years play offs with four  of the victories coming by DDs and six wins by eight points or more. Some thought that the Rockets might make a series of this after a surprising game 2 win , but that woke the Warriors up and now their on the war path . With that said, the Warriors once again get the nod here to cover on this line  in front of the own fans.  The Rockets are 22-7 ATS L/29 at home vs a team with a .600 record or better.

GOLDEN STATE is 19-9 ATS   off a home blowout win by 20 points or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by 14.3 ppg. Kerr is 18-7 ATS   in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better) as the coach of GOLDEN STATE witht he average margin of victory coming by 14.9 ppg.

Rockets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Pacific.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 11-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

Connecticut clobbered Vegas in both teams opener , by a embarrassing 101-65 count. Washington is now because of the Aces dismal performance being made 16 point chalk on the opening line.It must be noted that After a long tenure with the New York Liberty, the well respected Bill Laimbeer left to become the coach and general manager of the former San Antonio Stars, which relocated to Sin City and believe me when I say he not taking this kick in the face lying down. Laimbeer does have the  talented  National Player of the Year A’ja Wilson of South Carolina and  guard Kelsey Plum in the lineup  and despite of their ugly effort last time out are talented enough to stay within the number here and at least redeem themselves to some extent by being competitive.

LAS VEGAS is 13-4 ATS L/17   in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. LAS VEGAS is 9-1 ATS  after allowing 90 points or more over the last few seasons. LAS VEGAS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points over the last few seasons. Mystics HC Thibault is 1-10 ATS   as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points in all games he has coached since 1997.

Play on Las Vegas to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 2-1

The Cavaliers finally pushed back physically in game 3 of this series, with a top tier defensive effort, that resulted in a 116-86 win and the guy that lead the way was surprisingly LeBron James , who played his best defensive tilt of the season and tossed in 27 points to boot. The Cavs put him up against Brown -- the Celtics' top player in the first two games of this series -- and Brown didn't even score until there was 8:20 left in the second quarter.I respect the Celtics , but I could feel a monumental shift taking place in that game, as the Cavaliers got their mojo back. I know the young Celtics are talking about rebounding, but after that clobbering, their mental state of underdog invincibility may have gone out the window. Stevens is already talking about lineup changes which could change the dynamic of the Celtics core, after that startling game 3 result.  With blood in the water , and the possibility of tying this game at 2 games a piece before going back to Boston for game 5 , you can bet James and company will be in top form and ready to put the hammer down vs a inexperienced group.

The Celtics are 0-6 ATS  L/6  failing to cover by more than 10 ppg with rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc.The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS L/8 covering by more than 12.38 ppg with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they shot 50% or better from beyond the arc.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 11-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Phoenix opened their season with a 86-78 win as 5 point chalk vs Dallas and look like viable underdogs in this spot vs the Seattle Storm. PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS   in road games off a win against a division rival over the last few seasons.

 Mercury C Brittney Griner  looks primed for a  season as does  C Marie Gulich. F DeWanna Bonner, back after having twins, plus  former  Fever PG Briann January. Finish off with future HOF Diana Taurasi  and you have a dangerous Mercury side to back vs a Storm side depends way to much on 3 point shooting and veteran Bird who at 37 has slowed considerably despite of still having great basketball prowess.

WNBA  Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - vs. division opponents, off an home win scoring 85 or more points are a long term good bet going 63-32 L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover

The core of the Sparks that  led  to success recently remains intact as  F Nneka Ogwumike (2016 MVP) and F/C Candace Parker (2008, '13 MVP) are still on the court . New faces include veteran G Cappie Pondexter and rookie C Maria Vadeeva and make them viable contenders. Their two way play is their strength , and I'm betting it keeps them in this game vs Minnesota side that had to replace a lot of their bench in the off season. The defending champs  beat the Sparks in last years finals , and are a still a top tier  team, but their overloaded veteran presence  , makes them vulnerable to injuries and exhaustion late in games, and their hunger to beat up on a team they beat last season, may be less their opponents urge for revenge.  Take the points in what should be a competitive game.

LOS ANGELES is 27-15 ATS  in all games dating back to last season.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 6 or more points/game, vs. division opponents are 26-5 L/21 seasons for a powerful 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover

DYLAN BUNDY (R) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)

Baltimore enters this game as poster boys for road futility in Major League Baseball having garnered 13 straight losses. Tonight I'm betting on their tourist visas getting cancelled again and for the O's to end up on the wrong side of the lopsided score.

After three rough starts in a row, Bundy the Os starter rebounded to limit the inconsistent Rays to two hits in seven scoreless innings on Sunday.  That I'm betting was an anomaly and he will revert back to his previous form in this spot vs a much more explosive BoSox offense. The righty is 3-5 with a 4.66 ERA in 13 appearances against Boston. Meanwhile, Porecello started his season 5-0 , but has had a couple of down games, but I'm betting he will respond here at Fenway where his  is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA this season.

BUNDY the Orioles starter is 3-12  against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons with the average margin deficit clicking in at Opp 6.4 Balt 4

BALTIMORE is 1-12 SU  in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average loss coming of 2.7 rpg.BALTIMORE is 4-20 SU vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better with the combined average victory coming by 2.2 rpg.BALTIMORE is 7-34 L/31 against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more with the average combined loss coming by a whopping 3.3 rpg.

The Red Sox are 10-0 SU as a home favorite off a game as a favorite in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and have won these ten games by an average of 4.90 runs, scoring an average of 7.90 runs per game in those tilts.

Play on Boston Red Sox on the -1.5 on the RL

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Cavs looked rusty in game 1 of this series after a lengthy layoff after disposing of the Toronto Raptors in 4 straight games. Meanwhile, the Celtics after a 5 game series win vs Philadelphia  remained cohesive, after a short lay off. I liked the way the Cavs matched up vs the Celtics before game 1, and despite of being wrong about the outcome of that game I still like the Cavaliers on a pickem line in game 2.
From a neutral matchup perspective LeBron James remains the worlds top hoops player, and his supporting cast matches up well vs the Celtics and are on fresher legs than their Beantown opposition. I know Celtics coach Stevens is now a media darling and taking a lot of praise for his teams , successes , and in some respects deservedly so. But lets not crown the Celtics just yet, as their previous two series victories came against untested inexperienced teams with little recent play off successes. With that said, James and company offer up a whole different opponent, than the Celtics previous two sacrificial lambs. This is a championship calibre team, facing the prospect of going down 2-0 .  Needless to say this is a huge game for the Cavs, and you can bet James and Love AND the rest of the Cavaliers will be hell bent on avoiding a loss here, which gives me confidence for staying on the Cavs bandwagon.
One last thing, despite of the Celtics being pegged as a team that was built to harass James, it must be noted that harassing him, does not equate to being able to stop him from hurting you on the court.

Note: The Cavaliers are 13-0 SU/ATS L/13  as a  /pickem/favorite off a road game in which Lebron James played more than 39 minutes which happened last time out.
CLEVELAND is 51-27 ATS  L/78 when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days.
Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Road team is 8-2 ATS L/10 meetings . Cavs are 8-3 ATS L/11 visits to Boston.

NBA team (BOSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 22-51 ATS in the follow up the L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 34-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland  Cavaliers to cover

 ALEX WOOD (L) vs. WEI-YIN CHEN (L)

  It seems everyone in the media and baseball circles continues to keep crapping on the Marlins . I'm not arguing that  their not bad, but sometimes there is value attached to their games because of these perceptions presented us by the media propagandists. Today is one of those games, as an equally disappointing team the LA Dodgers are being pegged as big favorites. The LA DODGERS are just 3-16 SU as chalk of -125 to -175 this season and are far from viable favorites against any team in MLB in their current form. Meanwhile, Chen the Marlins starter despite of his struggles  is 15-6 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher in his career and seems to wake up just long enough to perform at optimal strength before going back to sleep under these types of circumstances. Chen goes against a Dodgers team that struggles against southpaws like him, as is evident by their 3.3 rpg game output and nasty looking .220 team BA. CHEN is 2-0 in his career when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.105 and gets the nod today on a value  +1.5 RUNLINE situation.
LA DODGERS are 1-8  against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.  

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - very bad NL offensive team (  3.5 or less  runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season are  75-33 L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate .

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (LA DODGERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing against a terrible team (38% or worse) are 17-34 L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (MIAMI) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season are 42-9 L/21 seasons for a massive 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Miami Marlins on the RUNLINE +1.5

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1 

The young Boston Celtics played like grizzled veterans in their first two series vs two teams Milwaukee and Philadelphia who showed their inexperience. The Celtics  played physical athletic ball, and came out on top thanks to their grit and chemistry.  However, with that said, I'm betting the Celtics will  not have an answer for a well rested LeBron James and a talented play off tested Cavaliers , that has matched up well against this Beantown Hoops group in the recent past. With that said, I'm recommending we back Cleveland to come out on top in a game the lines-makers have pegged as a pickem.  It must be noted that Cleveland hammered the Celtics in Boston back on Feb 11 by a 121 -99 score, covering a 5 dogs and have won 4 of the L/5 meetings. ( I will watch this series closely, and possibly adjust my assessments based on game 1, but for now on this line the Cavs get the nod. ) 

CLEVELAND is 10-1 ATS L/11  off a home blowout win by 20 points or more . ( Cavs beat Toronto 128-93 in the last game of a 4 game series sweep)  

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG) or more against a average at best defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more are 28-3 L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.  NBA

Home underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 8-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  81% rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover

DANNY DUFFY (L) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)

Kluber the Indians starter had a 4 game winning streak snapped last time out, and will be very ready to bounce back in this spot vs the KC Royals. In two starts against Kansas City last year, Kluber was 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA.
The Tribe are 7-0 SU at home with Kluber on the hill when they lost as an away favorite in his last start . Kluber in the L/3 starts under these perimeters allowed a TOTAL of one run.

Meanwhile, Duffy KCs starter  . In three starts against the Indians last year, he was 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA. His team has also lost his L/6 starts vs the Tribe. DUFFY is 3-12 L/15 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons losing by an average of 2.2 rpg.

KANSAS CITY is 5-19 against the money line against right-handed starters this season losing SU by an average of 2 rpg.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL are 101-20 L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 3 rpg.

Play on the Indians on the RUNLINE -1.5

DOUG FISTER (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)

The Astros entered their three-game series with the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park averaging just 3.8 runs at home compared with 5.9 runs on the road. Texas has enough offensive fire power to take out a team like the Astros that is struggling with run production at home, making them dangerous underdogs in this spot. Last season, the Astros averaged 4.9 runs at home with an .812 OPS while scoring 6.2 runs per game on the road with an .834 OPS, so their is definitely an issue , and something that must be examined. Tonight I'm betting that Rangers Right-hander Doug Fister (1-3, 4.02) is a capable of giving his team a chance to cash as underdogs in this spot.  Fister is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in his four career starts against the Astros.

TEXAS is 8-2 L/10 against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) .
Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.Rangers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Houston.
HOUSTON is 0-5  against the money line in home games after allowing 4 runs or less 6 straight games over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 2-8  against the money line in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 4 straight games which has just happened.
MLB  team (HOUSTON) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -200 or higher, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are just 15-31 L/5 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

There is value here on the moneyline but I'm recommedning we take the bonus +1.5 runs for what will still be a plus payday if my betting assumptions on this game are correct .

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the Runline +1.5

JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)

Hammel the Royals hurler has been what is regarded as a inning filler for his team of late.  The right handers performances are less than respectable and in his L/3 trips to the hill he has garnered a bloated 7.00 ERA. Add to that he's backed by a bullpen that owns a ugly 7.37 road ERA and you have a recipe for Cleveland's offense to feast . Meanwhile, Cleveland's starter Bauer has been a steading presence in his teams rotation and owns a 2.52 ERA , and a stingy 1.91 home ERA. He will be backed by a offensive attack that has done his best work at home this season averaging 5.4 rpg via a solid .272 BA. With that said, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with a value -1.5 RL situation here this evening in Ohio with the Indians.

HAMMEL is 0-9 L/9  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game losing by an average of 3.5 rpg  and is 1-10   against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse dating back to last season with the average loss coming by 2.6 rpg. (Team's Record) HAMMEL is  also 1-19  against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career with the combined average deficit clicking in at 3.5 rpg (Team's Record)

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a win by 4 runs or more are 41-3 L/21 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 3.7 rpg.

Play on the Cleveland Indians -1.5 runline

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - BOS Leads 3-1

The Boston Celtics with 3-1 series lead are one win away from clinching the Eastern Conference finals for the second straight season when they host the Philadelphia 76ers this Wednesday night at the TD Center in Boston. The Celtics were the superior side in 3 of the 4 games, each time as an underdog and were head to head with the 76ers at the mid way point of the last game, before running out of gas in the 2nd half vs a desperate team, that exerted a lot of energy in that win. I'm betting the Celtics are fresher than their opponents after game 4, and will be very inspired here to end this series at home an avoid a dangerous game 6 situation. They are my choice in this tilt.

Note  NBA HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading Win/Win/Win/Loss: Game 5 record, NBA , Quarterfinals round: 16-3 (.842). Also HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ Home /Home/Visitor/Visitor than Home : Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 52-13 (.800) HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWWL @ HHVV:Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 14-3 (.824).From a historical trending perspective the Celtics have an edge.

Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a 26-0 series record.Trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1,the Philadelphia 76ers have a 0-14 series record. No NBA  team has ever rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series.

BOSTON is 10-0 ATS as a home underdog this season and is 9-0 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.BOSTON is 10-0 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season and is 7-0 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. Boston is 7-1 SU L/8 meetings here in Boston.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 165-104 ATS L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

COREY KLUBER (R) vs. WADE MILEY (L)

The Indians have a recent history of not playing well enough to win consistently in interleague play .  The reasons are complex but the results are obvious. note: Indians are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games. Indians are 3-12 in their last 15 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Indians are 1-4 in Klubers last 5 interleague starts.Indians are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

Not only have the Indians struggled in interleague play in the past,  but so far this season, they have had issues garnering road wins, losing 9 of their 15 games. Needless to say, even though the Indians have a top tier hurler on the mound a win is not a guaranteed thing.  With that said, we have  value  taking +1.5 runs on the RL with the Brewers , and that's what I'm recommending we do.

MILWAUKEE is 24-14   against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start .Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.MILWAUKEE is 9-0 L/9 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite which was the case vs the Pirates last time out on Sunday.

CLEVELAND is 0-7  against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35  or less SB's/game this season. CLEVELAND is 1-7 L/8  against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs which happened vs the Yankees in their last game.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers on the RL +1.5

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CLE Leads 3-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers have proven that they matchup very well against the Toronto Raptors as is evident by their commanding 3-0 series lead. The Raptors have done everything but win in the three games that have been played in this series and are now a deflated team. You could see it in game 1 when they lost 113-112 in OT after leading for much of that game, and than in game 3 when the king of basketball, LeBron James made a last second shot, and snatched victory away from a horrified and demoralized Dino's group.  With the Cavaliers now smelling blood in the water, and a chance to close out this series at home ,  I expect it will be them and not the Raptors that will come out here firing on all cylinders. I'm betting its party over for the Raptors. Note: When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 4 record of 9-0. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 4 record of 0-2.

Cleveland has won 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series SU. Casey is 17-31 ATS   in all playoff games as the coach of TORONTO.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% are 48-8 L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.5 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 15-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0

Despite of the Boston Celtics 3-0 series, lead the lines-makers are barely adjusting their numbers on these play off matches with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixer's on paper are the superior team, but the Beantown hoops crew has the superior chemistry , girt and game plane to stifle a young group that may have not paced them selves properly in regular season play. Philadelphia  had a take no prisoners, pedal to the metal mindset for the 2nd half of the  season and the Sixer's because of this may have now run out of gas before hitting the proverbial finish line. Add to that the Celtics have matched up well vs teams like Philly all season long , making them viable underdogs for the 4th straight time in this series. While past results don't guarantee a continuation of occurrences, they must still be recognized and be respected. It sure as hell looks like the current version of the Celtics has the 76ers number, and until other wise proven wrong I'll grab the points.

BOSTON is 10-2 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season and is 14-3 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.BOSTON is 34-14 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots this season.

BOSTON is 13-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 L/6 SU at Philly.

BOSTON is 23-7 ATS  as an underdog this season and 16-6 ATS   as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.BOSTON is 14-2 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog this season and a perfect is 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS L/34 off a home loss .

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are just 11-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 2-1

Houston after a ugly/lazy effort in game 2 of this series at home, woke back up last time out, and bumped up their efforts by taking a DD win vs the Jazz in Salt Lake City. That victory was the Rockets 6th DD win in  their L/7 head to head matchups with the Jazz this season, which tells a story of  overall head to head dominance . I respect the Jazz and their work effort a lot, but with G Ricky Rubio out, their at a transitional  flow disadvantage, which means their in trouble vs a side like Houston that owns a under rated D, and explosive offense, that has yet to really show its best stuff so far during this post season. I expected the Jazz to show more grit in this series, and will be more aggressive today, but it just looks like their over matched and playing with desperation isn't always a point strength but a deterrent, as foul trouble most probably will rear its ugly head here if this tilt gets really physical . Note: Houston has consistently out performed the Jazz at the FT line this season, and I'm betting nothing changes here.

HOUSTON is 19-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with the average margin of victory combing by more than 10 ppg.

HOUSTON is 15-7 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season and now is 18-7 ATS  against Northwest division opponents this season. Overall HOUSTON is 27-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and is 25-13 ATS as a road favorite this season.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games are a long term good bet, going 189-119 L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - CLE Leads 2-0

 Toronto does not seem to matchup well vs the Cavaliers.  However, after being humiliated in front of their home town fans in game 2, of their series, in a DD loss, the Raptors are now desperate for a bounce back and will playing loose. Add to that super star LeBron James,  constant taunting of both the Raptors players and their fans and you have an opponent with a chip on their shoulders and enough talent to make game 3 a war as they look to shake the cant perform in the play off moniker .With that said I'm recommending we take the Raptors plus the points  here in game 3.

Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS  as a home favorite this season.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS    in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS  off a road win this season. HC Lue is 6-18 ATS  L/24  in home games after scoring 120 points or more .

NBA team vs the money line (TORONTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 25-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

After taking a few games to get acclimated and back into game shape Steph Curry is expected to start tonight for the Golden State Warriors. He is  also expected to play more than the  27 minutes he played in the last game, and will be I'm betting a big factor in the Golden State Warriors ability to cover tonight as short road favorites vs their hosts the New Orelans Pelicans. Meanwhile, the Pelicans looked much better in game 2 of this series, but make not mistake despite of their late season surge and chemistry are over matched vs a  defending championship side  that is very fresh, mostly because of the lack of effort they put forward for much of the 2nd half of the season. What I noticed was the  most troubling thing  with the Pelcians of late, is their complete lack of defense, allowing 123, 123, 121 points in their thier L/3 trips to the hardwood,  as they take on a pure attack mode, which is not a good thing against a team like Golden State,  that can run and gun with the best teams in the world and when challenged can exhibit  a very under rated D.

Note: Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-0, the Golden State Warriors have an active five-Game 3 winning streak.

GOLDEN STATE is 72-50 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last few seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS  in road games after scoring 120 points or more. GOLDEN STATE is 60-38 ATS  L/98 playoff games.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 152-84 ATS L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - top tier team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 78-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Golden State to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - CLE Leads 1-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers had problems with the under rated Indiana Pacers in their last series, and barely scratched out a series win, but according to my own power rankings matchup very well vs the Toronto Raptors as has been evident in recent meetings between these two eastern conference sides. With that said, I am recommending we take the points again here in game 2 in go directly against the zig zag theory.

Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games. Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto.

TORONTO is 18-33 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite and is 4-14 ATS L/18   in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent.

TORONTO is 2-13 ATS   vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Toronto Raptors are 0-14 ATS as a favorite off a home game when they lost at least two straight vs their opponent.The Toronto Raptors are 0-13 ATS off a loss as a favorite in which they led after each of the first three quarters. ( Both happened in the 1st game of this series when the Cavs came back for a 113-112 OT win)

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

I expected the Jazz to make tis a all out  in the trenches war, but I didn't expect was the Rockets were capable of coming back with some grit of their own and out gunning the Jazz in transition. Add in an explosive offense, and a under rated D, and you have to have respect for the home team here, even on a -11 point chalk line. Recently the Jazz have lost the L/5 meetings in this series by DDs. It seems no matter what they can muster the Rockets just have their number, and look especially vulnerable with Guard Rubio out with an injury. Right now I have to follow the flow of these head to head meetings and until the Jazz prove other wise, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with the Rockets, especially here on their own home floor. 

HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  against Northwest division opponents this season with the average margin of victory coming by 11.4 ppg.

Jazz are 0-13 ATS /SU as a eight-plus point dog with more than one day of rest off a loss losing SU by an average of 18.92 ppg and  are 0-11 ATS /SU  as a dog with rest off a double-digit loss as a road dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent losing by an average of 16.27 pig.

NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. are 33-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

The Warriors when at or near full strength remain the worlds most explosive basketball team. Many people doubted them during the season, but its looks very much like they were wrong, as the Dubs were just conserving their energy for the play offs. Now its full steam ahead, and all comers are in trouble including tonight's opponent the Pelicans. In game one the Warriors superiority and dominance was obvious in a 123-101  DD victory and I'm betting on more of the same over powering hoops from the defending champs tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 19-8 ATS   off a home blowout win by 20 points or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by almost 14 ppg.

The Warriors are 15-0 ATS/SU covering by an average of 13.47 ppg as a well-rested home favorite off a 10+ home win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher Basket assist % than their opponent with the average SU margin of victory coming by a whopping 22 points , and over the L/3 years the Dubs are 11-0 SU/ATS under the same perimeters winning by an average of 25.63 ppg, with only one game decided by 12 points or less, and the other 10 by huge hefty DD margins.

NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are just 59-99 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

WAR. That's what I'm betting the Jazz want to make this series into . Not only a physical in the trenches confrontation which they have an advantage in , but a mental and emotionally charged conflict. In the book the " ART OF WAR" Sun Tzu , there is a chapter that, explains how an army's opportunities come from the openings in the environment caused by the relative weakness of the enemy and how to respond to changes in the fluid battlefield over a given area. This is something the Jazz have been very good at in the 2nd half of the season, as is evident by their impressive record. I know Houston is a behemoth enemy and the Jazz are off a grueling series with the Thunder, and that now the linesmakers are  expecting an emotional  and physical drop off for the Jazz vs the Rockets in game 1 of this series. But , what's become evident to me is the rarity with which the Jazz, deter from work horse like ethics, and how disciplined they are, as well as their ability to pinpoint a teams weaknesses and attack it. With that said there is enough value on the line, for me to take the points here in game 1, and than watch closely to see which direction Ill take in game 2, depending directly on how game 1 plays out.

Just one last thing I know the Jazz have lost by DDs in recent meetings with the Rockets, but this team has shown a ability to learn from their mistakes, and Houston has recently not looked as cohesive as usual.
 Key  league wide  Trend:
Underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 43-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

If you know both yourself and your enemy, you can win numerous (literally, "a hundred") battles without jeopardy.(Verse from the Art of War)

UTAH is 8-0 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more this season ( which happened in their series clinching game vs the Wolves last time out) Note:
HC D'Antoni is 8-20 ATS L/28  in home games off a home win by 10 points or more .

The Jazz are 15-0 ATS /14-1 SU on the road with rest off a game as a favorite in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws , the lone SU loss came by 3 points .

NBA Favorites (HOUSTON) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more) against a struggling defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 61-115 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

MARTIN PEREZ (L) vs. J.A. HAPP (L)

The Rangers will be going for a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays Sunday afternoon at the Rogers Centre as they try to dig themselves out of a hole created by a 4-11 start.The Rangers now on  a huge momentum swing have won three games in a row for the first time this season. The Blue Jays meanwhile, are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum and  have lost four straight for the first time since Aug. 27-30 and have dropped seven of their past nine games. I know the Jays go against a struggling pitcher in Perez, but the way their swinging the bat right now  especially in clutch situations makes them fade material as nothing comes easy for this group.

PEREZ is 7-0 against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.

TEXAS is 11-4 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.TORONTO is 9-17  against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line -120 to +115) (TORONTO) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less ) against a terrible starting pitcher (WHIP 1.700 or more) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL) are 8-34  L/21 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the RUNLINE +1.5

Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

In a game I have pegged for a run and gun affair laying 8 or 9 points is not a concern, according to my own projections. Golden State can score in bunches and that what I'm expecting they will do today against a another high octane offense, but the difference maker will come via home court advantage and the Warriors overall superior talent and of course their play off experience. The Warriors will also be motivated in knowing their opponent is streaking, and will be very prepared to take the proverbial wind out of their sails and deliver the message that the Warriors are champions to be feared, especially with Curry si  in the lineup( upgraded to possible for this game 1 tilt) Even if he does not play I still like the Warriors in Game 1 .

Also after 3 days rest, I'm betting the Pelicans momentum might take a hit. In the past , they are just  4-13 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest and have a recent history of conference semi final ATS futility failing to cash 4 of their 5 .

Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Note: Warriors are 26-2 SU  L/28 in this series. The Pelicans did upset the Warriors this season, but Curry was not in the lineup. He's been upgraded to possibly play tonight, and I'm betting their will be no upset in this sot.

The Pelicans are 0-15  SU/ATS as a dog off a home win in which they scored at least 15 points more in the second half than they did the first half with the average margin loss coming by 15.93 ppg, with the closest loss coming by 10 points.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

The Celtics are a storied franchise, with a great fan base, and tonight, the TD Center will be rocking. This I'm betting will be an intimidating environment for the Bucks, who are at a disadvantage here in my humble opinion. The Bucks,   have lost eight straight series since winning two in 2001 and are 0-17 all-time when trailing a series 0-2. The Celtics are 35-0 when leading a series 2-0 and are once again my pick to advance to the next round and more importantly as far as we are concerned to cover the number.

"Game 7 at TD Garden is what you play for," said Boston coach Brad Stevens, whose team won a seventh game against the Washington Wizards in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. The experience of that victory will also be an advantage of the Celtics.

BOSTON is 16-4 ATS on Saturday games ( anomaly or nor still an interesting trend).

BOSTON is a perfect  9-0 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.( They lost game 6 by 11 points, but the game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate) Celtics are 11-2 ATS off a road loss. Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS L/17 as a road dog.

The Bucks are 0-24 ATS L/24 as a rested dog off a win as a home favorite over a 280+ team and they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.47 like the Celtics.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 51-6 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average margin of victory combing by 10.2 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - CLE Leads 3-2

Ill just say it right off the bat, the Pacers are every bit as good a team as the Cavaliers, and must not  be underestimated here at home as short chalk, with elimination on the line. They  lost a last shot heartbreaker in Cleveland 98-95 and I'm betting will be on the right side of this tilt and force a game 7. QUOTE:  "The series ain't over," Oladipo said. "You got to win four games, right? We still got a game on Friday. I don't think anyone is discouraged or upset. It sucks we lose. But we can give ourselves a chance to come back (to Cleveland) for Game 7." END QUOTE. Oladipo may not be the most eloquent of speakers, but he has captured my feelings to the tee. Yes, I know the Cavs have the best player in the world on the floor ( LeBron James) but the Pacers have something that is coveted by all sports team and that is chemistry.

INDIANA is 26-13 ATS   versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.CLEVELAND is 11-22 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.

INDIANA is 15-4 ATS  in April games over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 19-6 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season and  is 11-2 ATS   in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games dating back to last season. Cavs HC  Lue is 19-34 ATS   vs. division opponents in his career.

The Pacers are 14-0 SU /ATS as a favorite with rest off a loss as a dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent with the average margin of victory coming by 15 ppg.

NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are just 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2

Boston is a character team, and rarely never give it 100% and consistently come out and play hard. The banged up Celtics have been tenacious in 4 of the 5 games in this series, and notched the 92-87  win last time out on their own home floor to grab a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bucks are very talented and I'm not being disrespectful here, but they don't have the same never say die work ethic the Celtics have. They won their two games at home in this series because of tremendous shooting ( 57,52% FG), but their FG% conversion rate has been wildly inconsistent this season, as was the case last time out when they scored just 87 points and converted on just 36.8% of their shots  I know this a do or die situation for the Bucks, but I'm betting the Celtics make this a war, and won;t let the Bucks take this to a game 7 without making it very physically difficult for their hosts, which makes getting points a viable betting opportunity in my humble opinion. 

Boston has covered 5 of their L/7 here in Milwaukee. 

BOSTON is 30-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 20-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 13-5 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS L/26 when playing against a team with a winning record.MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or  free throws/game.MILWAUKEE is 4-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.MILWAUKEE is 3-11 ATS  in home games off a road loss this season.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

The Pacers took game 1 in this series by DDs, and that woke the Cavs out of dead sleep, as they realized they were in trouble, if they did not leave everything on the proverbial table. The next three games in the series, has seen the Cavs play their hearts out, and win two games, but all three games were decided by 4 points or less. With that said, I'm betting 6.5 points offers value for the underdog in a series that is evenly matched . Upset alert in motion here. 

Indiana has covered 8 of their L/10 visits to Cleveland.

CLEVELAND is 3-16 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. INDIANA is 18-6 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.NDIANA is 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games when playing with 2 days rest . 

NBA  team (INDIANA) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 55-26 L/5 seasons 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover