The coaching change of  David Fizdale on Dec. 6 for interim coach Mike Miller has not sparked the Knicks to consistent efforts, and there is just something off about the chemistry of this team, and their work ethic and preparation. Just before the Christmas break, they got clobbered by Miami and Milwaukee , and than got run over by the Washington Wizards  by a 121-115 count at  home on Monday. Now Im betting their lack of proper motivation , fluidity, and upper their talent will see them lose again and more importantly as far as we are concerned fail to cover.

NEW YORK is 2-12 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home losses over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 15.1 ppg.

The Knicks are 0-13 ATS /SU L/13 as a dog with more than one day of rest with every loss coming by 8 points or more with the average ppg diff clicking in at 20 ppg. 

Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA

The LA Tech  Bulldogs enter this game with a lot to prove after losing the CUSA championship game UAB. It must also be mentioned that their starting QB was suspended for that tilt, but will play today behind what will be a crowd that is on their sides here in Shreveport . Note: LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons Tech are a talented bunch that is not getting enough respect here vs a inconsistent Miami Florida football program, that is ranked  No. 130 in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage  and No. 120 in Red Zone Offense and will be missing three  future NFL starters including their top wide receiver Jeff Thomas. The Bulldogs averaged  34 PPG and 445 YPG,  on offence and had a D that was ranked  No. 3 in Red Zone Defense. Im not a big Manny Diaz fan, and just don't like his mojo so betting against him is not a difficult proposition for me. Miami is just 2-9 SU L/11 Bowl games including a ugly 0-6 ATS as chalk Skip Holtz's  5-1 ATS in bowl game record shines through and gets my support. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Two strong defences go head to head here today in the Diamond Head Classic. But the difference maker will come via GTechs superior overall talent and bench depth. 

GEORGIA TECH is 12-4 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 13-3 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on GTech to cover 

 Milwaukee won 21 of its last 22 games,  but they go against a Philadelphia side that plays their best basketball at home where they are 15-2 SU this season, and wont go down without a fight. Im expecting a hard fought game here which will make getting points golden. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are 25-3 L/5 seasons for for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  team (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 28-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers 

Boston downed Toronto 112-106 at home on Oct. 25  and matchup well once again vs a Raptors team that is banged up and playing short handed. BOSTON is 12-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

The Raptors have also taken part into two straight exhausting games , one where they came from behind from a DD deficit entering the 4th quarter, and one that they took to  OT after trailing by 14 points in the third quarter. A natural emotional letdown is expecting by me here today against a top tier side. 

NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) like the Raptors are 17-59 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover 

Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Halawa, HI

 Hawaii had a good season overall  as they made it all the way to the Mountain West Championship game. Now the  Warriors get to host a BYU team that is bringing cheerleaders, their families, and even key donors to this game. Its going to be far from a (its all business type of experience for BYU ) and more like a vacation to paradise island which is a negative for game preparation. 

Both teams  pound the ball efficiently but the difference maker comes down to the arm of .Hawaii’s Cole McDonald who has thrown for  29 touchdown passes. 

BYU is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season. 

The dog has cashed 9 of the L/12 Hawaii Bowls. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Minnesota now on a 10 game losing streak enters this game on tired legs as they play their 3rd road game in 4 nights, which gives the depleted Warriors  a chance for a rare victory here tonight. 

The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS/SU l/10 off a game as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS 1/10 SU with less than two days rest off a loss as a road dog in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes.

 MINNESOTA is 5-13 ATS versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

NBA team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 13-34 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

One of Sacramento's biggest moments of the season occurred when it edged the Rockets 119-118 in Houston on Dec. 9 and Im betting the Kings have what it takes to hang tough at home here again tonight.NBA Teams  like The rockets are 1-14 ATS /SU  on the road with rest off a 10+ win as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home.

Houston is off a big shooting effort last time out scoring 139 points in a win vs the Suns and now Im expecting a regressionary effort. The Rockets are 3-20-1 ATS  on the road off a win as a favorite in which they shot over 55% from the field. D'Antoni is 10-22 ATS  after scoring 130 points or more as the coach of HOUSTON.

NBA Teams like the Kings are 20-2 ATS /21-1 SU with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home .The Kings are 23-5 ATS L/28 with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.SACRAMENTO is 10-1 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

The Nuggets' two victories vs the Suns this season did not come easily. Denver won by a point in overtime in its home opener on Oct. 15, then by 12 a month later in a game the Suns  were lead in the fourth quarter. Now with double revenge on board Im betting on Devon Booker and company to give Denver fits tonight. 

PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. The Suns are 16-1 ATS L/17 at home with less than two days rest off a loss in which they allowed their opponent to exceed their season-to-date shooting percentage by 10 points.

DENVER is 3-12 ATS  in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Teams like the Suns are 13-0-2 ATS  off a loss in a home game in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

NBA teams  like the Suns are 1-24 ATS/SU  when the line is within 3 of pick with no rest off a win as a dog after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.

NBA Road teams (DENVER) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 21-51 ATS L/5 seasons for. go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

The Knicks had been showing signs of late of late, but then fell back down to earth against superior competition, here against a Wizards team that they can handle I expect a top tier effort on their own home court. 

WASHINGTON is 7-17 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. 

WASHINGTON is 8-20 ATS  in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Teams like the Knicks  are 17-1 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss when the total is at least 15 points more than their season-to-date average.

NBA. Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 32-12 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

The Sixers' offensive flow was disrupted by zone defenses during a recent 3 game losing streak. They averaged 97 points while falling to Brooklyn, Miami and Dallas. Personally I have not liked the flow of the Sixers for a few seasons now, and despite of their talent , are to choppy of a team to garner my respect against the best teams in this league. I know Detroit is not a top tier team, but HC Casey is an astute enough student of the game, to know how to implement a defensive game plan that can slow the Sixers here , making the home team in my humble betting opinion a solid underdog in this spot play.

The Seventysixers are 11-34-1 ATS L/46  as a favorite with rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game.

NBATeams like the Pistons  are 13-0 ATS L/13 s a home dog off a 10+ loss after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses.

NBARoad teams (PHILADELPHIA) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 21-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover 

SMU has held 7 of 10 opponents below 40% shooting. SMU is 48-3 under Tim Jankovich when holding opponents at or below 40%. SMU's field goal percentage defense is 39.4, which is 6th in the AAC and 79th nationally. The Mustangs are 37-4 L/41 at Moody Coliseum. 

CBB  Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SMU) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 63-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Diamond Head Classic - 2nd Round - Stan Sheriff Center - Honolulu, HI

 Portland's eight wins have already eclipsed last season's total of seven.
• The Pilots lead the WCC in FG percentage defense (.386), three-point defense (.282) and blocked shots (4.4) while also ranking third in points allowed per game (63.0).
• UP ranks 17th nationally in three-point percentage (.398). key here to covering as DD dogs. 

• The team returns two starters and have enough experience not be flustered. 

This is a very well conditioned Portland team that will be ready to play here today vs Boise State. 

PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS  in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons.Porter is 17-4 ATS  in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days as the coach of PORTLAND.

Play on Portland to cover 

Gasparilla Bowl - Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL

 This will the Herds  second straight Bowl game here in Raymond James Stadium, and they have a comfort edge going for them in this matchup vs UCF.  It is the fourth time that Marshall has played in the Tampa/St. Petersburg-based bowl game. The Herd is currently 3-0 in its trips to the contest. Add to that Marshall recruits a large number of its players from Florida, and many of them are excited to go home, and show case their abilities, so this Thundering Herd team will be motivated and Im betting they are viable underdogs in this spot play. 

UCF is 1-7 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games this season.

MARSHALL is 12-2 ATS in a bowl game since 1992. Holliday is 6-0 ATS/SU  in a bowl game as the coach of MARSHALL and is 11-2 ATS  in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

Take the points with Marshall to cover 

 Chicago is a physical team that matches up well vs the explosive Chiefs. Note: Chicago is 19-3 ATS with a .500 or less record when listed  as a home dog against the AFC opposition. 

Note: QB Patrick Mahomes should feel rushed today which will make for a nightmare for the Chiefs offensive flow. This will be the  first time the Kansas City Chiefs will go against super star  Khalil Mack since he was traded.  Mack used to be an Oakland Raider and totaled five and a half sacks against the Chiefs during his four year run in the AFC West. 

CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

The Pacers have won 13 of their last 16 games heading into the tilt with Milwaukee (26-4), which has emerged victorious in 20 of 21 contests and is off to its best 30-game start since 1971-72. The Pacers record will have the Bucks wide awake and ready to send a message to the Pacers here at home giving us an edge with one of the NBA most explosive teams at home.

 MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season. MILWAUKEE is 22-5 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Budenholzer is 36-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MILWAUKEE.  The Bucks are 13-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at 20.2 ppg. 

The Pacers are 0-11 ATS /SU on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.3 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 9-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Clippers will  rest leading scorer Kawhi Leonard against the Thunder after he played Saturday night in a 134-109 win at the San Antonio Spurs. With the Clippers on tired legs and   Im betting there  is an advantage for a home side, that has won 3 straight in front of their own fans. OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

The Thunder are 20-4-1 ATS L/25 as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in which they shot over 50% from the field.

NBA teams like the Clippers are 3-20-1 ATS L/24 as a road favorite with no rest off a win as a favorite facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.

Oklahoma City has won 4 straight at home in this series.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

Charlotte enters the contest on a back-to-back, losing 114-107 at home to the Utah Jazz on Saturday night , but will not be reserved here tonight knowing they will have a holiday break to rest up coming their way after tonight. Injuries may also slow the Celtics here tonight as  , forward Gordon Hayward (sore left foot), guard Marcus Smart (left eye infection) and big men Vincent Poirier (right pinkie fracture) and Robert Williams III (left hip) all missing the last two games. Hayward is questionable Sunday, as he was Friday, but the other three have been ruled out.

CHARLOTTE is 22-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

The Celtics are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a home favorite in which their assists increased by at least 10 from the game before.The Celtics are 7-25 ATS L/32 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest after they shot over 50% from the field.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

The Cards won last week vs the Browns, but this week Im betting they have their butts handed to them vs a explosive Seattle team that can very much take advantage of the Cards very porous defence, that allows, an average of 28.4 ppg on the road this season. Note: Carroll is 23-7 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 ppg. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.6 ppg.

The Cardinals are 0-17 SU/ATS L/17 on the road off a game as a home dog in which their scoring output increased by more than ten points over the game before.

NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 6-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. ( Seattle beat Arizona back in Sept on the road by a lopsided 27-10 count- Rinse and repeat here today)

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

Dak Prescott is banged up with a sore shoulder, a finger injury on his throwing hand, and took limited snaps in practice.Even with nagging - or worse - injuries, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expects Prescott to be in "top form" against Philadelphia and I agree with the Boyz owner on this one, as its not hard to look good vs a consistently under performing Philadelphia D.There are jobs and reputations on the line, as well: Dallas coach Jason Garrett could save his job with a division title and a strong playoff run. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Dallas to cover 

The Cavaliers beat the Gamecocks 69-52 in Columbia, S.C., last December, but four players who combined to score 52 of Virginia's points -- Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, De'Andre Hunter and Jack Salt -- are no longer with the defending national champions and in their rematch Im betting South Carolina can hang here based on  my personal spread projections which give us value of one possession.  

The Jaguars have been completely stagnant of late, and are not getting much respect at all and they really don't deserve it , but neither does Atlanta and in no way according to my power rankings deserve to be a 7 point or more favourite vs anyone in this league including the lowly Jags. From a long term trends perspective it must be noted that  NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are a long term good bet going 120-64 ATS L/36 seasons for a solid 65% conversion rate for their betting backers. 

ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons and  is 0-7 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Atlanta Falcons are 1-13 SU and 0-14 ATS in their last fourteen games against AFC opponents.

Advantage Jacksonville getting points 

Minnesota arrives in the Pacific Northwest with a nine-game losing streak while the Trail Blazers are starting to get into a rhythm. After playing in the high altitudes of Denver last night, the Wolves , are fade material on this line. Note. Towns a key Woves offensive weapon is expected to miss tonight and if he does play is less than 100%. Portland is 4-0 SU/ATS as hosts here in Oregon of late and Im betting on the Blazers getting it done again. 

The Timberwolves are 0-13-1 ATS /0-14 SU as a road dog with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.The Timberwolves are 1-16-1 ATS /1-17 SU as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

The Trailblazers are 16-1-1 ATS /17-1 SU at home with less than two days rest off a 10+ win after a game in which their opponents points per field goal attempt was less than one.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

The Suns will have their star  Devon Booker in the lineup tonight here at home vs the Houston Rockets, and according to my projections are viable dogs . Meanwhile, the Rockets are off a very hard fought victory vs the Clippers last Time out and may not have the energy to operate at full steam here tonight vs a side that Im sure their over looking.The Rockets are 2-16 ATS L/18 as a road favorite off a road game after a game that was tied 5+ times including 1-9 SU L/10 and 0-10 ATS. 

The Suns have revenge on board for a loss  115-109 loss to the Rockets earlier this season. PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Williams is 100-67 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached.

NBA Teams  like the Suns are 36-9-1 ATS -35-11 SU at home with no rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making more than 20 free throws per game. 

NBA Teams like the Suns are 25-4-1 ATS /  as a dog with no rest off a loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

 New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Blazers have shown themselves to be talented but highly inconsistent this season, and undisciplined, after a  6-1 start  went  just 3-3 at the finish line , and were smashed in their conference championship game by DDs vs an explosive FAU side.  However, UAB coach Clark’s has proven before that he can engineer a quick bounce back off defeat as is evident by a  12-4 SU and 11-3-1 ATS record in his career. Clark is 8-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival as the coach of UAB. 

 Blazers really need a good showing here after that above mentioned debacle in the CUSA championship game. This is a chance to do it by hanging tough against a ranked Appalachian State side, that despite of a great season,  are getting a very average Bowl show case that might not have them very excited to play in. Note: This also an easy trip for UAB fans so Im betting the majority of the crowd will be backing the Blazers, which will buoy their chances here two fold. 

CFB  Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (APPALACHIAN ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a good team (60% to 80%). are 31-63 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UAB to cover 

CHICAGO LEGENDS - United Center - Chicago, IL

Star Jordan Bohannon is out for the rest of the season, and so the headlines read "can the Hawkeyes be as dangerous without him". I say yes, even though the team will have to use a different dynamic to get the job done, behind sharp shooting  CJ Fredrick. We know Cincinnati plays a physical game, but after a big emotional win vs Tennessee last time , thye may not have the energy needed to hang with the better shooting team down the stretch. 

CINCINNATI is 4-12 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and s 12-3 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons

OWA is 8-1 ATS  in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. 

CBB Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (IOWA) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 79-9 SU L/5 seasons  with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.8 ppg. 

CBB Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (IOWA) - off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 100-15 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.1 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

I know the Kings played last night in a loss vs the Pacers, but  so did the Grizzlies . I keep my own conditioning charts on on NBA teams, and the Kings rank higher in their ability to perform on back to back games, and get my support here vs a team that they matchup well against in most metrics. SACRAMENTO is 10-2 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season.

Sacramentos SRS ranks 19th in the league at ( -2.76) while the Grizzlies SRS ranks them 25th ( -5.14). Note: SRS is a (Simple Rating System) a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

SACRAMENTO is 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 2 seasons. 

The Kings are 31-3 ATS L/34 on the road off a game as a dog facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.

The Grizzlies are 2-20-1 ATS /2-21 SU as a dog off a loss in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws.

NBA Teams like the Kings are 33-8-1 ATS /33-9 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with no rest off a loss in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP.

NBA Teams like the Grizzlies  are 1-18 ATS /SU as a home dog after playing as a road favorite when they are off two games in which their opponent scored 10+ more points than their respective averages

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

Both these teams records are not very impressive, but Utah Valley has been for the most part been highly competitive and are off a win vs Wyoming last time out and have momentum entering this tilt , while Long Beach State has consistently got blasted, by DDs in their L/5 games and are fade material here in a pickem situation. 

LONG BEACH ST is 5-17 ATS in home games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more.

CBB team (UTAH VALLEY ST) - poor three point shooting team (32% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game).

Play on Utah Valley to cover 

  Lane Kiffin has left the Florida Atlantic sidelines   but things are looking up as    Willie Taggart is about to take over. Add to that a new defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer stepping in for this game and  the Owls look like a football program with upside, and the ability to upend SMU here today. You have to remember, that FAU owns a big play attack with  and with SMU secondary  giving up 285 yards per game their vulnerable to be nipped here for big yards , gains and subsequent scores. on the flip side, Im betting the Mustangs will have problems running the ball vs a Owls team that have allowed fewer than 100 yards in five of their last ten games. If SMU cant run the ball, their passing game will be easier to read, and problems will arise as this tilt goes on. 

SMU is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-9 ATS  in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

FLA ATLANTIC is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 

Belmont has won two consecutive games vs. the Southeastern Conference; the Bruins defeated Vanderbilt 69-60 (11/13/17) and won at Georgia 78-69 (3/15/17) in the 2017 Postseason NIT.

Belmont is averaging 82.4 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field, 38.3% from behind the arc and 70% from the foul line this season and are a dangerous team here in a neutral court environment vs a side that despite of being talented has been highly inconsistent this season especially defensively.

My matchup projections estimate that the wrong team is favored here and Belmont gets my support. 

BELMONT is 9-0 ATS L/9 as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.BELMONT is 9-1 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Belmont to cover 

CROSSROADS CLASSIC - Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN

The Boilermakers have held all 11 opponents to 70 points or less this season and are 7-0 when holding opponents to 59 or fewer points. Purdue leads the Big Ten in scoring defense, giving up 55.8 points per game, a point more than Butler allows. Im betting on more top tier defensive action today and a subsequent cover.

Purdue to cover 

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

Central Michigan comes into the New Mexico Bowl featuring a multi dimensional  offense. Chippewas running back Jonathan Ward has rushed for 1,082 yards along with hefty 6.2 yards per carry. His 15 touchdown runs rank third in the MAC. Meanwhile, Quarterback Quinten Dormady, a transfer from Tennessee, finished the regular season looked like a gunslinger. He completed 71 % or more of his pass attempts in the final three games leading into the MAC championship game, effectively spreading the ball among a number of pass-catchers. Im betting this group will test San Diego State sturdy D, alot more than recent opponents and make life difficult for a team that will be in an uncomfortable situation of having to open up . 

HC Rocky Long is just 4-9 ATS in his career in Bowl Games. 

C MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS vs. average passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season.

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

The Celebration Bowl is one of the most competitive bowl games on the schedule each year. Each Celebration Bowl has been decided by a touchdown or less. Last year the North Carolina A&T Aggies snuck past  Alcorn State Braves by the slimmest of margins  24-22. Looking at both teams numbers, from this season suggest both possesses balanced defences and offences and matchup well against each other in a game that should be a pickem, thus getting points makes for a solid wager according to my projections. 

Play on Alcorn State to cover 

New Orleans enters this game exhausted and on tired legs against a desperate and depleted Golden State team that still has the advantage of playing at home here tonight.

NEW ORLEANS is 17-29 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 6-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons here at home.

The Pelicans are 0-17 ATS /SU L/17 with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point rangeThe Pelicans are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win as a road dog facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 33-63 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover 

The Knicks have gone 3-3 since turning over their coaching reins to Mike Miller, who has been fortunate enough to have a mostly healthy roster at his disposal. The team as a whole is playing with momentum after winning 3 of their L/4  and showing resiliency and more urgency which makes them viable underdogs in this spot vs a Miami team off a hard fought win vs Philadelphia last time out that could easily see them in a emotional letdown spot. 

The Heat are 2-18 ATS L/20 at home off a win in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1.5 and are 1-14 ATS L/15 at home with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1.5.

NBA  team (MIAMI) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a struggling  team ( 25% or less) are 67-113 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Sacramento coach Luke Walton has  his floor leader DArion Fox  back on the court which makes the Kings a much more dangerous team with a already never say die chemistry surrounding it.The  Pacers their hosts are playing well with four straight victories and 12 in their past 15 games but they are off a hard fought win vs the Lakers last time out and could find it hard to muster the energy to go against a Sacramento team that won't lie down without a fight.SACRAMENTO is 10-0 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. 

NBA Teams like the Pacers are 0-10 ATS L/10 and 2-8 SU at home with more than one day of rest off a win as a dog.

The Kings are 13-0-1 ATS L/14  with more than one day of rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game.The Kings are 21-2-1 ATS (L/24 )on the road with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

Play on the Kings to cover 

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

CUSA’s record of 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS versus MAC opponents in Bowl games has me looking directly at a up trending Charlotte football program as viable underdogs here today in this Bowl game. Don't get me wrong Buffalo is a fine team and were 7-5 on the season, but they were far from perfect and periodically fell asleep at the proverbial wheel. Meanwhile, their opponents today the niners, finished their season in over powering fashion, going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and 5-0 ITS and deserve respect here getting points. It must also be noted that Buffalo Bulls , HC  Leipold  is bankroll depleting  0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS away vs a above .500 team like Charlotte. 

BUFFALO is 2-14 ATS L/16 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHARLOTTE) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 38-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Brooklyn has come a long way over the last few seasons, and San Antonio is now starting to play at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and are not reliable favorites.The Nets are a hard working team with a never say die attitude, something that is missing from the framework and mindset of this current group of Spurs players. Im taking the points here with the visitor. 

NBA Teams like Brooklyn are 12-0 ATS  as a dog with less than two days rest after they scored more than 50 points in the paint. 

SAN ANTONIO is 0-12 ATS L/12 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season.

NBA Teams like the Spurs are 0-17-1 ATS /0-18 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half.

The Nets are 16-2 ATS L/18 as a dog with rest off a win as a favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers. 

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

 Dallas enters this game  without their best player Doncic  and despite  Mavericks  winning last time out  vs Milwaukee are still be listed as underdogs vs the visiting  Boston Celtics. The Mavericks without their star found a way to beat Milwaukee, but the Celtics wont be over looking them like the Bucks were, and this time around Doncic presence will be missed. Add to that I expect the Mavs to be in a huge emotional  letdown spot after that win vs the Bucks and we have value with the short road favorite. 

The Celtics are 15-0-1 ATS (L/16 on the road after a game as a home dog in which rebounding less than 20% of their own misses. 

 The Mavericks are 2-21-1 ATS L/24 at home with less than two days rest off a win in a road game in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Hall of Fame Showcase - Talking Stick Resort Arena - Phoenix, AZ

Saint Mary’s has been red hot from beyond the arc to start their season and rank  No. 1 in the nation in downtown conversion rates with  (43.8%) ,  I don't believe they can sustain that sizzling  start and will soon find it harder to convert with their treys  starting tonight against a  ASU side  that owns a very strong perimeter defense as is evident by holding  opposition to ’26.5 precent  3-point conversion rate ).  ARIZONA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or better  of their attempts over the last 3 season. 

With this game closer to home for the Sun Devils and the majority of the crowd on their sides, Im betting they get us the cover and the possible outright win. 

ARIZONA ST is 11-1 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better ) over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

The banged up and injury riddled  Tar Heels enter this matchup coming off three consecutive losses, including two at home. North Carolina  is missing their  leading-scorer freshman Cole Anthony  and without him look like cannon fodder here vs an explosive Gonzaga side playing at home. You have to generate offence to hang with  the Bulldogs, and considering the Tar Heels abysmal shooting that ranks them at 297th in the nation in in effective field goal percentage, 3P%, 2P%, and FT% they are on trouble. Its a resume builder for Gonzaga here so its a pedal to the metal situation that warrants laying the lumber here.

Gonzaga has  won 28 straight  home games by an average of 23.6 points per game. 

Gonzaga to cover 

Sixers (20-8) will enter this game against the Heat (19-8) as the second-best team in the Eastern Conference and holding a perfect 14-0 SU home record with Joel Embiid expected in the lineup tonight after missing his last start with a respiratory issue. Meanwhile, Miami continues to be tough out, but 

[SF] 12/17/2019 - Justise Winslow is downgraded to OUT Wednesday vs Philadelphia ( Back )

expected this miss the short handed Heat my not be as viable as usual as underdog in this spot play vs a side that thrives at home, and out looking for redemption after a ugly DD loss last time out. 

PHILADELPHIA is 37-21 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff  of +8 . 

The UNCG  Spartans are coming off a heart-breaking half-court buzzer-beater at the hands of in-state rival NC State on Sunday and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation here today vs a hungry Vermont team playing at home. Im betting Vermonts strong defence to play havoc with UNCG . Note:Vermont is  allowing  a 41.3%  2 point conversion rate which places them as one of the toughest team to play against from inside the arc. 

CFB Road teams as an underdog or pick (UNC-GREENSBORO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game, after a close loss by 3 points or less. are 16-41 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vermont to cover 

The Bobcats are 7-3 on the season after defeating Tennessee Tech, 81-54, on Dec. 8 in Athens. 

Overall this season, the Bobcats are averaging 74.4 points, 35.2 rebounds, 16.6 assists and 7.3 steals per game. The Bobcats are shooting .476 from the field, .373 from three-point range and .687 from the free throw line and have enough fire power to stay close to a less than explosive Purdue team that is methodical and defensive minded. 

Ohio has registered an impressive 511-167 (.756) all-time record at the Convocation Center, which opened in 1968.

PURDUE is 12-23 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. PURDUE is 0-6 ATS  in road games after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

OHIO U is 6-0 ATS  as a home underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Ohio . to cover 

Play on SF Dons to cover 

Hall of Fame Invitational - Barclays Center - Brooklyn, NY 

The Gators (6-3) are off to a slow start after early seasons projections and rankings listed them No. 6 in the Associated Press preseason poll and were seen as a favorite along with Kentucky in the Southeastern Conference. However, this is still a strong team, its their relative inexperience that has hindered them so far , but Im betting they right their ship quickly behind some top tier talent. 

 Meanwhile, Providence  has had a very weak schedule with sub par results so far and  from a metrics standpoint is   ranked 146th on the NET ratings, easily the worst mark in the 10-team Big East and I just dont think their ready for a top tier showing in a neutral court setting vs a more talented team that is battle tested after wins vs Xavier, and Miami including a 3 point loss to tough Connecticut side. 

Florida is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 in this series. 

Play on Florida to cover 

Charlotte has won and covered 4 of the L/5 games in this series and have won the two most recent tilts here at home vs the Kings. The Hornets were playing well of late having won 4 straight before a ugly effort vs the Pacers last time shooting just  30.8% from the floor and made just five triples on 32 attempts in a 107-85 loss. However, in the past the Hornets have rebounded well from a bad shooting effort, and  are 13-3 ATS in home games after 2 straight games where they made 39% of their shots or worse. I know Sacramento is proving themselves a well coached team, but this will be their 6th road game in their L/8 overall, and 8th game in just two weeks, so their on tired legs here and could easily be over looking their opponent.

 The Kings are 1-21 ATS /0-22 SU L/22 on the road with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.

The Hornets are 16-1-1 ATS /17-2 SU L/19 at home with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - in non-conference games, off a road win by 10 points or more are 46-88 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Both these teams are playing sub par .500 hoops. The Suns have been up trending this season ,but are still not a consistent side and have nosed dived of late losing 10 of their L/14 after a fast start.  Meanwhile, Portland is struggling more than I anticipated but they have a solid experienced core, and Im betting they will right their proverbial ship. This particular matchup according to my power rankings suggests the Blazers have an edge on a short line and  they get my support here tonight. Injury update: Suns guard Devin Booker  is 50% (forearm) and this struggling team   will have to get through one more game without center Deandre Ayton who has one last game to serve on his suspension. 

The Blazers have won 10 straight meetings in this series and Im betting they nail another one here tonight. 

The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU with more than one day of rest off a game as a dog in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws.

NBA Teams like the Blazers  are 24-4-1 ATS /23-6 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a 10+ loss as a road dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.Teams like the Suns  are 0-10 ATS /1-9 SU at home facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game. 

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

These teams have opposing records, with Evansville at 8-3 and Jacksonville State at 3-7. But home court advantage for a side that has been very competitive of late despite of losing efforts makes for advantage situation. Note: The Gamecocks have seen their current 4 game losing streak come by 3,7,5,5 points respectively with only one loss coming at home and that was to Troy in hard fought affair. 

Harper is 16-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) as the coach of JACKSONVILLE ST.

JAX ST is 10-2 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE ST is 15-6 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Jacksonville State to cover 

New Orleans took part in a run and gun dog fight last week vs San Francisco that they lost and now Im betting they will be in a bit of emotional let down state and due for regression. Actually the Saints have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 since Drew Bree's returned from injury, and definitely have some defensive issues at the worst possible time. Tonight they go against a motivated and desperate Indy side looking for a play off spot , that has the ability to score in bunches  which makes getting points a viable investment option with he visiting underdog.  Note: New Orleans is just 0-7 ATS L/7 when coming off a home loss and laying more than 7 points. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Indianapolis is 9-0 ATS  L/9 against .500 or better  NFC opposition. Saints are 0-6 ATS L/6  as non-conference home favorite of more than 4 points and 1-10 ATS at home taking on  AFC  foes. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 24-5 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indy Colts to cover 

Mavericks Star Guard Doncic suffered a sprained right ankle Saturday, and will be out here tonight, and probably longer. This Mavs team is going to suffer operating on the perimeter. With that said, I just cant see, Kristaps Porzginis being able to ramp up the offence on his own, and add to that  he has not shot well on the road this season. This Milwaukee team reminds me of Golden States recent  super squads , and because of that this 11 point spread is not scaring me off in the least in a game I see as an easy DD victory for the Bucks. 

The Bucks are 14-0-1 ATS /15-0 SU as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. All wins came by 11 points or more with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.8 ppg.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

 The Wizards won the first meeting between the teams on Nov. 4, 115-99. Bradley Beal led six Washington players in double figures with 22 points and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here. 

Teams the Wizards  are 37-9 ATS /42-6  as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.

NBA Teams are 0-13-1 ATS /1-14 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick after a game as a road dog in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint. Teams like Detroit  are 4-24 ATS at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after playing as a road dog

LATE STEAM Wizards to cover

The Bills are bruised and battered after a very physical game against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and Im betting they won't have enough left in the tank to significantly compete here against a another smash mouth type of team in Pittsburgh. 

Pittsburgh has won 6 of the L/7 meetings here at home in this series and get the nod again. 

The Bills are 0-15-1 ATS /0-16 SU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 20.7 ppg. 

NFL Road teams (BUFFALO) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 265-375 ATS dating back 37 seasons for a go against 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Minnesota Gophers looked asleep at the wheel last time out on the road vs Iowa and lost by DD (72-52), and now after that embarrassment have a quick chance for redemption if they can upset undefeated Ohio State here today. With that said, Im betting on the Gophers leaving everything on the floor and to make it difficult for the Buckeyes to stay undefeated . It must be noted MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS  off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.MINNESOTA is 33-17 ATS  L/50  in home games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points and are 10-2 ATS  after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.

CBB teams off a blowout loss vs a ranked are 103-53-1 ATS L/13 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Lakers won their 13th road game in a row and moved 20 games over .500 with a 113-110 triumph on Friday vs Miami. However that was a very physical tiring game vs the Heat , and Im sure the Lakers have the bumps and bruises to show for it . Thanks to the Lakers perceived invincibility and the Hawks ineptitude we have a value line to bet into with the home underdog Hawks. Note: With  Hawks  as healthy as they've been all year Im betting they put up a fight tonight. 

LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

The Hawks are 11-0 ATS L/11 as a dog off a 10+ loss in a home game after a game that was tied 5+ times.

NBA Teams like LAL are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which they had more than 10 refereed turnovers.

NBA Road teams (LA LAKERS) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 75% or more ) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 6-26 ATS L/23 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

The Chargers are starting to wake up from a season long slumber and are  off a dominating 45-10 win last week vs the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile,  visiting Minnesota despite of being consistent on the in the W/L column have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 overall and are not living up to the linesmakers expectations and vulnerable here to a desperate team with a chip on their shoulders. 

The Chargers are 15-0 ATS /12-3 SU L/15 as a dog when they are off a win as a favorite and they are averaging more than 27 points per game over their last three games.

MINNESOTA is 5-18 ATS L/23 in road games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 as underdogs. The home team has won the past five in the series.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 40-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

The Browns were  recently starting to turn a corner towards respectability . But that ended last week when despite of winning  they lost the stats battle to Cincinnati by more than 188 yards. That is truly unacceptable, and now the inconsistent Browns  travel out west to play a under rated Arizona team with a good looking young QB in Murray under centre. The kicker is that the Browns are 3 point road favs, which is not an optimal line to cover for this type of undisciplined  unorganized  team that takes a boatload full of penalties on a weekly basis . Note: The Browns are 0-4 ATS/SU  L/4 on the road.

  The Cardinals are 21-0 ATS /19-2 SU at home when their line is between a three-point favorite and a five-point dog inclusive when they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games and they did not have more than 31 minutes of possession time in their last game.

The Cardinals are 17-4 SU and 20-0-1 ATS as hosts  off a non-division tilt when facing an opponent coming off a win of 8 or more points.

The Cardinals are 15-0 ATS/SU on grass off a loss by more than a field goal when the line is within three of pick and they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games.

Play on the Arizona Cardinals to cover

The first meeting earlier this season with Troy was a come-from-behind 74-68 triumph and now here at home Im betting they have a much bigger advantage and offer a viable cover opportunity for bettors.Defense is a key. The Mocs have held seven of 11 opponents to fewer than 70 points. Opponents are making just 30.8 percent beyond the arc.  Another key is Chattanooga superior bench depth(  the bench. For the fifth straight game   the reserves combined for 22 or more points averaging 28.2 ppg.  Advantage Chattanooga.

TROY is 7-18 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.TROY is 3-12 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

UT-CHATTANOOGA is 7-0 ATS after a game where they made 45% of their free throws or worse over the last 2 seasons.

Paris is 4-14 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of UT-CHATTANOOGA.

Play on Chattanooga to cover 

The New Orleans Pelicans have lost 11 straight games and Im betting that won't end today vs a Orlando side that matches up well against them.NEW ORLEANS is 1-9 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Gentry is 11-30 ATS  against Southeast division opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

Orlando has won their L/2 visits to New Orleans. 

NEW ORLEANS is 16-28 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 12-25 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons

The Pelicans are 0-16 ATS /SU with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range. The Pelicans are 0-12-2 ATS/1-13 SU with less than two days rest after they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers.

NBA Teams like Orlando  are 12-0-1 ATS L/13 with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

Green Bay Packers are very over rated in their current form even though they hold down the No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC.  Believe it or not the Packers have  lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 games and now go against a Chicago side that has won 4 of their L/5 and coming into their own now as they season winds down.

 Earlier this season the Bears lost to the Packers by a 10-3 count,(despite of winning the stats battle) but now in revenge mode in their best form this season, Im betting on the Bears to bring home the cash as underdogs.   The Bears are 5-0 SUATS with a winning record in division games with  QB Mitchell Trubisky under center.

NFLvUnderdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a home win are 37-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a  71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Seahawks lost RB Rashaad Penny for the season with a knee injury suffered in last week’s defeat, and will not have the same offensive flow without him in the lineup. Considering the Seahawks D, is ranked No. 26 in the league in overall  there could easily be issues fr them covering today. 

CAROLINA is 21-9 ATS in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game. 

The Panthers are 12-0 ATS L/12  as a dog off a road SU and ATS loss.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The Thunder have dropped four straight visits in Denver and lost the last six overall matchups. Last season, they went 0-4 against the Nuggets with the losing margins all between seven and 11 points. Rinse an repeat situation on board here.

The Nuggets are 15-0 ATS/SU as a home favorite with rest off a win in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with the average margin of victory coming by 16.4 ppg. 

NBA Teams likr the Thunder are 0-11 ATS /SU L/11 with more than one day of rest off a loss as a road dog when they are off two games in which their opponent scored 10+ less than their respective averages with he average margin loss coming by 19 ppg.

Play on Denver to cover 

I couldn't help but notice that the Bucks were trying to pace themselves last night knowing they had back to back games, but because of this they had to really work hard at the end of their game vs Memphis to get the win and subsequent cover .  That will have a already tired team  playing 3rd game in 4 nights even more winded here  as this game progresses.Note: The Bucks are 1-21 ATS L/22  at home with less than two days rest off a road game after a win in which they trailed after the third.

NBA Teams  like Cleveland are 22-6 ATS and 11-1 SU L/12  on the road off a win facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.(  The Cavs beat  San Antonio 117-109  their last time out.)

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a struggling  team (25% or less) are 27-56 ATS  L/23 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 

BEEHIVE CLASSIC - Vivint Smart Home Arena - Salt Lake City, UT

BYU is off a heart breaking OT loss last time out to Utah, and are now ready for a bounce back performance against instate rivals Utah State here today. The Aggies (10-1), , are ranked and  are preseason favorites to win the Mountain West Conference championship. USU is led by guard Sam Merrill, who averages 17.7 points per game, but is less than 100% despite of expecting to play here today ( undisclosed illness).

Note: BYU has made 10 or more 3-pointers in five consecutive games, which is a school record. And the Cougars have allowed just an average of 46 points in their last two games and despite of not being ranked are highly under rated and dangerous and need this win to enhance their tournament resume. 

UTAH ST is 5-14 ATS  in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons

BYU has won 14 consecutive games at Vivint Arena. Three of those 14 victories came against Utah State. The Cougars beat UNLV at Vivint Arena last Saturday.

Play on BYU to cover 

Suns' leading scorer Devin Booker is expected to miss this game. ( late update). Which gives the Spurs an edge here. 

The Suns are 4-25-1 ATS 2-28 SU L/30  with more than one day of rest after a game that was tied 5+ times.

The Spurs are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU L/11on the road with rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds.

SAN ANTONIO is 7-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons. 

  NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 123-73 ATS L/23 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Rutgers is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, and play their very best basketball at the RAC which is one of the noisiest buildings to play in the Big 10. Rutgers is up-trending quickly behind a top tier defence that is holding opposing offences to just 57.7 ppg at home, and Seton Hall is going to have their hands full against legitimate Big 10 talent. 

Play on Rutgers to cover 

 The seventh-ranked Wolverines host No. 13 Oregon at Crisler Center on Saturday and a game that Im betting favours the Wolverines.

Michigan struggled against Illinois, last time out on the road , but playing here at   in the friendly confines of Crisler Center is a big time advantage for the Wolverines.

The Wolverines are 5-0 at home this year. They are shooting 53 percent from the field at Crisler, including a 40 percent mark from beyond the arc (compared to 35 percent shooting and 16 percent from the land of the trey in their two road games, both losses).

 Im betting key Michigan components Simpson and the Wolverines  slowing  down Pritchard and the Wolverines to come out this with a cover.    Note: Michigan is 13-1 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. 

Michigan is 33-1 SU in their L/34 non-conference home games, including 24 wins in a row. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MICHIGAN) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 92-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover 

The Bucks enter this game on a 16 game win streak, and must be respected here a hefty road chalk vs a Grizzlies team that lost 10 of their 13 tilts as hosts this season. Even If Giannis Antetokounmpo  cant play it must be noted the Bucks own a +8.8 Net Rating when he is not playing which ranks  rank fourth in the league .Considering the  Grizzlies are without two key players Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke the Bucks have a very hefty edge.  

Injury update: Bucks super star Antetokounmpo is listed questionable in advance of Friday's game. He sat out of Wednesday's win with a sore quad tendon, and with this being a back to back spot could easily sit tonight. Despite of this the Bucks are still the superiror side. 

Budenholzer is 14-4 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of MILWAUKEE. 

The Bucks are 13-0-1 ATS /14-0 SU as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with every victory coming by at least 10 points.  

NBA Teams like the Bucks are 12-0 ATS/SU as a 8+ favorite off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with he average margin victory coming by +19.2 ppg. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 38-1 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12 ppg.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

No. 24 Colorado heads to rival Colorado State on Friday looking to snap a 2 game losing skid and Im betting they get back on track here tonight.( The losses came against Kansas and to a very under rated  N.Iowa group in a letdown situation after the disappointing game vs the Jayhawks)

Colorado comes into Fort Collins still rated No. 27 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom  advanced metrics and are a good matchup for Colorado States run and gun offence. 

Play on Colorado to cover 

Denver after having lost 5 of their L/6 look to bounce back at home game against  Northwest Division rivals Portland. This is a pretty good Denver side, that is desperate for a win and Im betting they come out here and play like their  hairs on fire in what will be  a victory and cover situation. ( Denver beat the Blazers 108-100 on the road earlier this season and matchup well against any formations Portland comes up with)

NBA teams like Denver  are 12-0 ATS/SU covering by more than  (17.04 ppg) as a home favorite off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with the average ppg diff clicking in at 25 ppg.The Nuggets are 15-1 ATS covering by more than  11.5 ppg and 16-0 SU  off a loss as a road dog in which they scored 10 or more points in the first than the fourth quarter with the average ppg diff clicking in at 11.8 ppg.

NBA Teams like Portland are 0-12 ATS/SU L/12 as a dog with rest after a game as a home favorite in which allowing 15+ points less than Vegas projected with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14 ppg.The Trailblazers are 2-18-1 ATS 1-21 SU as a road dog with less than two days rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.

Injury update: Denvers Jamal Murray is  listed questionable for Thursday's game after leaving Tuesday's loss with a  right trunk contusion. Murray however, says on Instagram that he's fine, and  that he'll be good to go. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Grand Canyon is not an easy place for visiting teams to play , thanks to a    hyped up student section as is evident by their   home-court advantage which has seen GCU  record an over powering  85-25 SU record dating back 6 seasons. With  Northern Iowa  off a huge win vs a ranked opponent this past  Tuesday night vs Colorado Im betting their in a dangerous letdown spot that leaves them vulnerable to being upset by the Lopes.

N IOWA is 1-10 ATS in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Grand Canyon to cover 

 Prairie  View runs and guns behind a 39th ranked national tempo, but their offence isnt  particularly efficient as is evident by  having scored  70 points or less in 4 of their 8  games. Prairie knows how to play at one speed, and that's not a good omen vs a sometimes  explosive Arizona State team that will have no problems running with their opponent and beating them at their own game via a superior deeper lineup.  This tilt has blowout written all over it. Note: The Sun Devils have only failed to cover 3 of their L/11 at home as 14 plus chalk. 

Hurley is 17-6 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1997 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +21.7 ppg.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

CS Fulerton has played very competitive hoops of late despite of losing 4 straight games with 3 of the games decided by just 3 points. Tonight at home vs a San Diego side that has lost 5 of their 7 road games they have an advantage taking points. 

SAN DIEGO is 7-17 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. CS-FULLERTON is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO L/4 at home. 

Play on CS Fullerton 

The Lakers have won  21 of their next 23 overall, including 11 in a row on the road and once again look like a viable road favorite in Orlando tonight. With James and  Davis showing some great chemistry the rest of this team has also upgraded its game, and look like dangerous championship contenders if they can stay healthy.

The Lakers are 10-0 ATS /SU off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.2 ppg. 

 NBA Teams  like the Magic are 1-14 ATS  as a home dog off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

UW is 5-2 against Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014. But the Badgers are 0-2 at the RAC in that span, including a 64-60 loss  two seasons ago.Rutgers is undefeated this season at the RAC (6-0) and limiting opponents to under 60 points per game (5-0). There are only a few hundred tickets still available for this game so it will be a sell out so home court advantage should give them an edge again . Make not mistake Rutgers is a hungry program needing to make a impact in the Big 10 so their going to come at the Badgers will everything they have got. The Scarlet Knights are up trending and  have some strong athletes around the perimeter  and are more than capable of getting into the passing lanes and creating fast break opportunities vs a side that will try to lull them to sleep behind a methodical pace . Wisconsin lives and dies with their  downtown shooting and if threes are not  falling their in trouble. Rutgers can control beyond the arc bombs and have an advantage. 

Play on Rutgers to cover 

The Highlanders, who are 2-7 so far this year, are currently in the midst of a five-game skid and really dont believe that should be any better then a pickem here vs a hard working Lowell side.The young UMass Lowell squad has shown its resiliency this season, battling back to erase double-digit deficits four times and I  like them here to get us the cover. 

NEW JERSEY TECH is 1-8 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW JERSEY TECH) - in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (20/ or more game), cold shooting team - 3 straight games making 40% or less of their shots are 14-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate.

Play on UMass Lowell to cover 

BYU is at full strength as  senior forward Yoeli Childs (21.1 ppg, 10.5 rpg) returns to the lineup after sitting out a 9 game suspension. This kid makes a huge difference in the Mormons offensive efficiency and it will show tonight. 

The Cougars rank 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 16th in effective field goal percentage and  rank 12th in the nation in 3P shooting behind a red hot 41% conversion rate that features multiple threats from downtown.

 The Wolf Pack are a 3 point top heavy team that depends heavily on the trey, but that not an efficient offensive answer for them here in a nasty road environment vs a side that  holds oppositon shoorts to a lowly 29.2% conversion rate  from the land of the three.

With Childs back BYU will own the interior game and will hand out a double smack down as they crush Nevada vs the beyond the arc shoot around, while they themselves hold fort defensively in what should be a decisive victory for the home side. 

BYU is 29-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points  with the average ppg diff clcking in at +11.1 ppg. 

Play on BYU to cover 

The Heat beat the Hawks twice in a three-day, home-and-home series in October, taking  112-97 victory at home on a night when Atlanta star Trae Young suffered a sprained right ankle, then 106-97 two days later in Atlanta when Young had to take the night off. Now The Heat  face a  healthy Young this time around,  and will have their hands full dealing with a emerging super star who has recorded 39 and 30 points in his last two trips to the hardwood.Young is averaging 34.4 points over his last eight games and Im betting will be the difference maker and helping his team stay within the number here tonight for a Hawks cover as dogs. 

The Hawks are 11-0 ATS L/11 on the road off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game.

The Heat are 0-14 ATSL/14 at home off a win as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points. The Heat are 3-18-1 ATS L/21 at home with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite.

NBA Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-18 ATS L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Josh Richardson with a +10.1  Net rating mark is expected  play tonight for the76ers. His presence  is important from a metrics standpoint as when Philly have  their full starting 5 playing they are lights out dominate  with a +21.3 Net Rating over 9 games - which equates to a full 121 minutes. Meanwhile, with Denver continuing to struggle to score    consistently , while losing 4 of their L/5, they  are at a disadvantage as they play their 4th straight road game on tired legs  vs a team with revenge on board or a defeat at Denver earlier this season. Note: Philadelphia is 12-0 SU at home this season.

NBA Teams like Denver are 1-15-1 ATS /1-17SU as a dog off a loss as a road favorite when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with the average ppt diff clicking at -12.1 ppg.

NBA Home teams  (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are 24-3 SU L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +9.6 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The No. 4-ranked Maryland Terrapins will be searching for their 11th consecutive victory to open the season when they visit Penn State on Tuesday , however, Im betting their quest comes to abrupt end here on the road tonight vs the Nittany Lions. Note: The Terps have lost in three consecutive seasons to Penn State and a 4th straight loss is my call tonight against a Penn State side that plays their absolute best hoops at home where they have won all 5 games this season.

Note: I know Penn State got blasted on the road in their opener at Ohio State, but key Big 10 star Chambers fouled out  with 13 minutes left in that game and then the Buckeyes outscored Penn State 43-19 to end the game. If Chambers can stick around til the end Penn State takes it. 

Play on Penn State to cover

The previous eight meetings between St.Joes and Temple   have been decided by 10 points or fewer and now Im betting these rivals will once again see a single digit decision which favors the dogs (St.Joes ) getting points.TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS  as a home favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons and is 0-8 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on St.Joseph's to cover 

The Suns finished off a 2-2 road trip with a 115-119 loss at Houston on Saturday but  pushed the  Rockets to the wire and are gaining my respect with their play and showing an up -trend in my power rankings  . The Suns' five took a 100-98 victory in Minnesota earlier in the season, and matchup well here vs a side that is playing back to back games and  their 4th straight road game and now on tired legs and vulnerable to a down effort.

Injury update:  Coach Monty Williams was hopeful following Sunday's practice that key player Baynes could return Monday, and the Suns have listed Baynes questionable as he deals with a strained calf. Dario Saric (back) and Mikal Bridges (finger) are probable.

The Timberwolves are 1-16 ATS L/17 on the road after they shot over 50% from the field which was the case vs the Lakers in a loss last night.

Timberwolves are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

NBA Teams  like the Suns are 16-1 ATS /SU with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home covering by more than 13.47 ppg. NBA  Teams are 10-0 ATS/SU with rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home covering by more than 16.6 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, playing with 2 days rest are 50-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Phoenix to cover 

The Philadelphia Eagles  are now desperate to stop a three-game losing streak  vs a  quarterback in Eli Manning that  hasn't played in three months and hasn't defeated them in three years.Manning is 10-20 SU against Philadelphia in his career and the Eagles have now won 9 of the  L/10 meetings overall, and are 8-1 ATS L/9 on Mondays at home vs division opposition. The Eagles are not only in need of  a win here but they are in redemption mode for a embarrassing  37-31 loss to Miami last time out, despite of previously  holding opponents to 17 points or less in four straight games and allowing fewer than 225 yards passing in five consecutive games. Falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a side that they should have handily beaten was almost unforgivable and the entire Eagles team should be motivated in this national spot light affair. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Both these teams are off playing last night, with the Raptors suffering their 3rd straight loss in Philadelphia , while the Bulls lost in OT in a hard fought affair at Miami that will now have them in a letdown spot. The more desperate and more motivated team is the defending league champion Raptors, and Im backing them here tonight in place ( Chicago ) where they have won and covered their L/5 visits which includes a 104-86 win on Oct 26th here in Chicago. 

NBA Teams like the Bulls are 7-31 ATS/5-33 SU  as a home dog off a game as a dog in which they had overtime. NBA Teams are 19-2 ATS /19-2 SU as a road favorite off a loss in which their opponent had overtime.NBA Teams are 16-1 ATS /SU with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home covering by more than 14.45 pig. NBA Teams are 12-0-1 ATS /13-0 SU as a road favorite with no rest off a loss in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. 

The Bulls are 1-13 ATS /SU as a home dog after they had more than 30 fouls.(Which was the case in Miami last night)

CHICAGO is 19-34 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Lakers are red hot entering this home game against Minnesota as they  are off a three-game road  swing that eneded with a 136-113 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday for their 11th consecutive road win.The Lakers have won three in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off 3 straight losses, and on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights. The way the Lakers are running over opponents its actually not a hard decision to lay this many points with them here at home. 

NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games are 1-27 SU L/28 times with -13 ppg average diff. 

NBA Home favorites  (LA LAKERS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 33-2 L/35 opportunities with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.3 ppg.

NBA Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 45-17 ATS L/23 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Seahawks  are off. s hard fought win vs Minnesota this past Monday night and are currently the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC .and garnering alot public support thanks to recency bias   Meanwhile, the LA Rams look to now awoken from their mid season slumber behind the reenergized QB Jared Goff who  threw for 424 yards in last week’s 34-7 beat down at Arizona in which the Rams tough D held the Cardinals to a season-low 198 yards of offense.  I know the Rams have not looked particularly consistent this season but the numbers tell a different story as they  have won the stats battles in 10 of their L/12 games this season.  When these lines opened over the summer   the books posted the Rams as 7.5 point chalk, and now with the line divergence this big their is obvious value with the Rams here playing at home vs a Seattle side that will have issues bringing the same energy to this game as they did vs the Vikings last week. 

 LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game are 82-135 ATS L/36 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

The Spartans will be thin in the backcourt for their Big Ten opener vs Rutgers tonight with freshman Rocket Watts out with a stress reaction in his foot. This has been one of MSU’s best lineups, but depth becomes an issue especially in the backcourt. It must also be noted that the Spartans have not defended well as the rotation continues to be a work in progress while the shooting outside of Winston has been inconsistent. Meanwhile,Rutgers is in the top four in field-goal percentage defense, third in blocked shots and second in steals, and are second in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage and must be respected getting this many points. What Im betting here, is that the Scarlet Knights are to well coached and have too much Big Ten-caliber talent to be run over here, thus getting points makes for viable investment option.

Play on Rutgers to cover

Miami is off to the best home start (9-0) in franchise history and is 10 games over .500 overall and take on a Chicago team that has won back to back games.  I know the Bulls are playing well right now but they just do not matchup well vs the Heat. The Heat rank 9th in the league in SRS at 4.84 while the Bulls rank 24th at  -4.85 . Using my power rankings index and home court advantage of the Heat are closer to -12 favs here when factoring in both sides overall performance charts, giving us value with Miami according to my projections. 

Note:SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.2 ppg. 

Play on Miami to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be looking to improve 12-0 at home when they host the defending-champion Toronto Raptors (15-6 SU) on Sunday. In contrarian fashion Im betting that the Sixers will not easily get cover here today vs a motivated talented and experienced team that looks to end a 2 game losing streak. QUOTE:"You don't overreact when you're 15-4, and you don't overreact when you're now 15-6," HC Nurse said. "Just get back going to work and taking them as they come, because you're probably gonna win quite a few games if you put the effort forward, and you're gonna slip up every now and then because that's basketball." END QUOTE.

PHILADELPHIA is 14-26 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Toronto has won 5 straight meetings in this series dating back to last season.

NBA Road underdogs (TORONTO) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 94-50 ATS L/23 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Tennessee took part in a hard fought affair last week against Indianapolis which resulted in a  away win thanks to a great forth quarter . However, the Titans are being a little over rated because of recency bias,  as is evident by having lost 8 of 12 stats battles  and have  given  up season- high yards in two of its last three games . With that said, Tennessee looks vulnerable here in what looks a classic letdown situation on the road.  Which coincindently their second straight road game and never an easy situation for any NFL team . I know the Raiders after 3 straight wins have looked bad in two straight losses , but they are better team than those down efforts and Im betting on a bounce back work order today vs a over rated side.

Tennessee  as a non-division favorite of more than 2 points, are  0-10-1 ATS l/11 against opponents  coming off a loss.

NFL  team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rates.

Play on Oakland to cover 

The Chargers and the Jaguars are both having seasons to forget, and both enter this game desperate for a win. The Chargers are off a loss to the Denver Broncos and  the Jags are off a ugly DD loss to the TB Bucs by a 28-11 count. Free agent  QB Nick Foles just can't get it done, for the Jags, and young QB Minshew is expected to start. It must be noted that the Jags incumbent QB is  4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in his NFL career against opponents  coming off a loss like the Bolts. My projections estimate that Jacksonville plays better with their young gun under center and have more flow to their games, and with hom expected to start there is value taking points. 

The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a favorite.

NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 47-20 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

Florida State (7-2, 0-1 ACC) lost 80-64 at Indiana on Tuesday, one night after Clemson (5-3, 0-1) was soundly defeated 78-60 at Minnesota and now because of recency bias we have a solid underdog line to bet into with an under rated Tigers side. 

Key to cover: The Tigers are outscoring opponents off turnovers this season by a decisive margin of 163-104. Clemson has forced 129 turnovers and committed 95.

 FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.Hamilton is 39-78 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of FLORIDA ST.

Play on Clemson to cover 

Its Jimmy G vs Drew Bree's this Sunday in the Bayou. I know the public loves the 49ers a team that moved into the upper echelons of the NFL, but  the Saints have thrived in this spot in the past and are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS L/14 record at home versus .800- plus opposition. My own projections make the Saints the superior side as hosts and they get my support in this spot. 

NFL Home teams  (NEW ORLEANS) - off 3 straight wins against division rivals, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 27-1 SU L/ 36 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg. 

NFL Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover 

 Indianapolis is off a 31-17 loss to the Titans last week which most believe will have them in a letdown spot this Sunday, but Im betting on the opposite reaction via a tough as nails group that will want redemption immediately.  Note:  The Colts are 14-0 ATS  L/14 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss and they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has forced an average of fewer than five turnovers per game like the Buccaneers. The recency bias of Buccaneers win vs Jacksonville last week, and the Colts loss has a bad line attached to this tilt. In my betting opinion this inconsistent Buccaneers team is being over rated in a big way. 
  
 The  Bucaneers  are 0-16 ATS when they are not a FG-plus dog and they are off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and converted four-plus third downs.  

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 4-14 L/18  ATS against AFC South division opponents .

The Colts are 6-1 SU L/7 overall in this series and 3-1 SUL/4 visits to TB. 

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 

AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

The Tigers closed -14   against Cincinnati in their meeting last week, and despite of not covering looked like the far superior side. Now on a single digit line their is value with the favorite in the rematch. I know quarterback Desmond Ridder is back for the Bearcats but he was highly erratic in recent starts and is still dealing with a shoulder injury that is less than 100% healed. I must also be noted that Cincinnati has lost the stats battles in 8 of their 12 games this season , including 1-7 ITS the last eight overall tilts and over rated in my humble opinion at this juncture of the season. Note: MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Memphis to cover 

 When these teams met earlier this season in Waco the Bears built a  28-3 lead against the Sooners, but blew that lead as the Sooners woke up and won 34-31. Now in this championship game Oklahoma will be fully focused and be ready for this tilt and will be prepared for a fast start and keep the pedal to the proverbial metal from start to finish. The Sooners football program owns a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS mark in big 12 championship games.The  favorite is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine tilts  in this event. Also recently the Sooners are 11-2 ATS  as single-digit chalk.  The Sooners also have the motivation of getting the final and 4th spot in the college football play off, but their victory has to be convincing to beat out a impressive Utah side and will be merciless here if up.

CFB team (BAYLOR) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 37-78 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 68% conversion rate.

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

 Billy Napier, UL Lafayette is a highly under rated team and from a bettors perspective an ATN machine cashing   18 of 25 times for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors. I know App State is nationally ranked side, but when these teams played earlier this season the Cajuns stayed with them almost every step of the way and the 17-7 ,  10 point margin of victory for the Mountaineers was a little misleading. Since that above mentioned loss to App State , the Cajuns have reeled off 6 straight wins and must not be underestimated in their ability to cash a ticket for us today on what is now a bloated line according to my projections. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 ATS  after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games which was the case last time out vs UL Monroe. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 4-14 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

The Portland Trail Blazers are enjoying their best stretch of the season and the play of shooting guard CJ McCollum has been a prime reason for the success.

McCollum has matched a career best by scoring 20 or more points in 10 straight games and Im betting he will be key to this Blazers team covering here at home tonight vs a tired Lakers team playing tbeir 3rd road game in 4 nights, With the last two coming in the high altitudes of Utah and Denver, both of which were conclusive wins that took alot of energy to achieve.. Note: Road favorites (LA LAKERS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 19-47 ATSL/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

I know the Blazers are also playing their 3rd game in 4 night but being at home has its advantages. PORTLAND is 17-7 ATS  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 17-29 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasonsLA LAKERS are 8-18 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS (as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Portland to cover 

The Eastern Conference-leading Milwaukee Bucks are red hot and on a  13-game winning streak as hey enter this home matchup Friday against the Los Angeles Clippers, a side that have nine victories in their last 10 games.

MILWAUKEE is 33-17 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

Budenholzer is 11-2 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 28-3 L/23 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.3 ppg. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The  consistent Denver Nuggets began their four-game East Coast trip in dominating fashion Thursday, blowing out the New York Knicks by 37 points and enter into this game with momentum .The Nuggets must not be underestimated despite of this being a back to back situation against a top tier Boston Celtics side. Note:Denver HC Malone is 25-11 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days in all games he has coached. 

Play on Denver to cover