Houston broke its own NBA record by making 27 3-pointers in Sunday's 149-113 home victory over the Phoenix Suns and enter this game with a full head of steam and ready to keep their momentum in high gear entering the play offs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of needing to ramp things up, are struggling in alot of facets of their game, and after watching them barely get past Minnesota last time out, Im betting their over matched vs an explosive opponent. 

HOUSTON is 15-7 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less this season.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover 

The Utah Jazz were piling up  victories and creating momentum for the postseason until  the lowly LA Lakers upset them by out working them. Needless to say coach Quinn  Snyder was left irate. Now Im betting the Jazz coming out here with a big time effort and bounce back vs the Denver Nuggets a team they have beaten 8 straight times and matchup well against. 

UTAH is 20-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. 

NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 17-61 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. ( Denver lost at Portland last time out but covered)

Play on Utah to cover 

Minnesota is depleted with injuries, and the Raptors despite of rapping up their play off spot, are still trying to enter the playoffs with momentum, and should be well prepared to lay down a beatdown here. 

NBA  road favorites like Toronto between -3 and -10 points on the spread averaging 99+ points per game are 90-44-3 ATS L/137 for a 67.2% conversion rate after allowing 55 or more points in the first half of their last two games.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Twins RH Kyle Gibson (0-0, 9.64 ERA) vs. Mets RH Jacob deGrom (2-0, 0.00)

DeGrom has pitched well out of the gate , picking up where he left off last season, but according to my matchup pitcher vs batting order stats does not matchup well here.DEGROM is 5-10  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  and is 2-9   against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

CALLAWAY is 5-16 ( against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of NY METS. 

MLB teams (NY METS) - team who had a poor bullpen last season with an ERA of 4.50 or worse, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last 5 games are 27-66 L/22 seasons for ago against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Twins RL 

Despite losing four straight games, the Detroit Pistons sit in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and need a win badly here and should come out ready to perform vs a Grizzlies side most likely playing out the string. 

Pistons HC Casey is 15-3 ATS  in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached in his career. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

“The Ugliest National Championship” in history is what many are calling this game. But one of these ugly Bettys is going to get my money, and that is Virginia.  I know Texas Tech has looked tremendous, in this tournament , but the Cavs wont be easily intimidated by the Raiders style of play especially with key cog  6-foot-10 Tariq Owens expected to play at less than 100% ( ankle injury).  Meanwhile Virginia has remained steady from day 1 of this season, and are playing with a chip on their shoulders, after some recent early exits from the big dance. Both have top tier defences, but in my humble opinion Virginia is more battle tested after competing against teams like Duke this season. Im nit taking anything away from Texas Tech , but their win against Michigan State was in my humble opinion their best of the season, which has tainted this line. Note: VIRGINIA is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or better over the last 3 seasons. VIRGINIA is 6-0 ATS in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite this season. ( The Cavs beat Auburn by 1 point in the Final 4 as 5 point + chalk)

CBB favorite (VIRGINIA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less  PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 62-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Virginia to cover 

The home team has won each meeting this season , with the Pelicans winning 149-129 on Oct. 19 in New Orleans and the Kings winning 122-117 on Dec. 23 in Sacramento. Im betting on the home team giving their fans something to cheer about here in their home finale as they try to finish the season at .500. 

SACRAMENTO is 9-0 ATS  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season with the average point differential clicking in at 14 ppg.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 3-27 ATS for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at 13.9 ppg. 

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover 

Dodgers LH Julio Urias (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Chad Bettis (0-1, 9.53)

Urias, despite of good spring training and good start to his season, is just 11.57 ERA in two career games (one start) at Coors Field. We all know some hurlers don't do well here and Urias looks like one of them. 

BETTIS the Rockies starter is 9-2 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (LA DODGERS) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games are 22-79 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Colorado +1.5 runline 

With Toronto firmly gripping on the No.2 seed in the East its all about staying healthy. Meanwhile, Miami have lost  three straight games to fall out of playoff position in the Eastern Conference and desperately need a win  and will play like their hair is on fore here this afternoon. 

MIAMI is 7-0 ATS in road games against Atlantic division opponents this season.

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Heat are 45-17-2 ATS in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games.Heat are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Heat are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.

Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Southeast.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.

Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Toronto.Heat are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Toronto is 9-24-1 ATS at home in non-division game.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 68-115 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rte for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Spartans have faired well against havoc style defenses in their last two games against  Duke and LSU  and Im betting they will be able to deal with what Texas Tech will bring.  Izzo and company can play any style that is thrown at them. Remember what the great Bruce Lee said,“You must be shapeless, formless, like water. When you pour water in a cup, it becomes the cup. When you pour water in a bottle, it becomes the bottle. When you pour water in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Water can drip and it can crash. Become like water my friend.”  END QUOTE:

Well Izzo is the Bruce Lee of basketball. A true master.( Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is 22-0 SU   as a favorite in the NCAA Tourney when coming off a SUATS victory )

Tonight Im betting the key will be The Spartans  ability to control the board as Texas Tech only ranks 188th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I know alot is being said, about the Elite D, that the Raiders own, but the Spartans defense is  also  top tier ranking ninth overall in adjusted defensive efficiency and second in 2-point shooting percentage while smothering  opponents to a 31.2%  conversion rate from beyond the arc.

MICHIGAN ST is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game after 15+ games this season .

Teams like Texas Tech n the Final Four Round if they lost SU in the first round of their conference tourney are 0-9 ATS. No.1 

Teams like the Raiders who beat No. 1 seed in the Elite 8 round are only 1-12 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in Final Four games since 1992 , when riding a 3-game ATS win streak. 

No. 1 seed in the Elite 8 round are only 1-12 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in Final Four games since 1992.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

NCAA Tournament - Final Four - US Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN

From day one of this season, I liked Virginia to have a very strong chance at winning it all, and Im not about to change my mind here as Im betting the Cavaliers defence will trump Pearls explosive offence. It's a old adage that offence can get you to a championship but defence will win it for you, and nothing changes in this battle.  Auburn in their first final four appearance in the history of the program  has had a great run , but Im betting that their hot streak will end vs the last No.1 Seed still in the tournament, Virginia. It must be noted that  Final Four and championship games  have not produced alot of  winning underdog tickets. Since 2005 pups are just 16-25-1 ATS.  Up trending dogs  are public darling, but have been less than profitable during the above mentioned span cashing just 5 of the L/14 times. Lower seed in the Final Four or finals are just 9-20 ATS and 5-24 straight up. 

Dating back 34 seasons, 14 programs have made their Final Four debuts. Of those teams, only four have  advanced  to the championship game. 

VIRGINIA is 8-2 ATS  in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.  VIRGINIA is 11-1 ATS  after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season. VIRGINIA is 9-0 ATS  in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.

CBB favorite (VIRGINIA) - an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 32-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia 

When the NBA playoffs start next week, the Milwaukee Bucks know they will have home-court advantage throughout so resting players and making sure their healthy is more important than winning this game tonight against the visiting Brooklyn Nets who are desperate for wins as their quest for a post season spot is still up for grabs.The most recent meeting was Monday in Brooklyn when the Bucks led by 15 after the first quarter and posted a 131-121 win.but Im betting all out do or die effort from the Nets here. 

BROOKLYN is 11-3 ATS  in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. 

BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24  or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

The Sacramento Kings are geared up to halt a stretch of 12 straight losing seasons and Im betting they will play hard tonight and get is the cover vs the banged up  Utah Jazz who are dealing with a boatload full of injuries and may limit key player minutes tonight in attempt to get healthy with the play offs approaching. 

PG] 04/05/2019 - Raul Neto is "?" Friday vs Sacramento ( Ankle )[G] 04/04/2019 - Kyle Korver is downgraded to OUT Friday vs Sacramento ( Knee )[SF] 04/04/2019 - Jae Crowder is upgraded to probable Friday vs Sacramento ( Thigh )[F] 04/04/2019 - Derrick Favors is downgraded to OUT Friday vs Sacramento ( Back )[PG] 04/03/2019 - Ricky Rubio is "?" Friday vs Sacramento ( Hamstring )[PG] 03/18/2019 - Dante Exum is out indefinitely ( Knee )

UTAH is 1-9 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.SACRAMENTO is 10-1 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

Toronto  has won five consecutive games since Lamb banked in a half-court heave at the buzzer for a 115-114 victory on March 24 and continue to ramp for the play offs against a team that is exhausted as they have feverishly chased a play off spot and off a 4 game road trip . I know Toronto can afford to take the pedal of metal , but their trying to stay in high gear entering the play offs and are in revenge mode for a 115-114 loss they suffered to the Hornets at home back in late March and will be ready to make their opponents pay here, especially knowing how desperate the Hornets are for wins. 

CHARLOTTE is 4-20 ATS  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a road win are 71-38 ATS L/5 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors 

Yankees LH James Paxton (0-1, 1.59 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Alex Cobb (2018: 5-15, 4.90)

Baltimore has come flying out of the gate this season and have now won 4 straight games and are currently playing with a lot of confidence Meanwhile, the Yankees are looking a little unstable, and have a boatload full of injuries, that is effecting their flow.

Note: 

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line 120 to +115) (NY YANKEES) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities against opponent with a terrible bullpen whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season are just 16-43 L/22 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the RL

The Rockets and Clippers are two of the hottest teams heading down the stretch of the regular season with Los Angeles going 16-4 in their past 20 games and Houston winning 17 of the their past 20 games. However, from a head to matchup perspective my own power rankings like the Rockets to deliver a winning ticket for us tonight. I know the  Clippers won 115-112 on Oct. 21 in Los Angeles and Oct. 26 in Houston, the Clippers won by 20, 133-113 , but now with revenge on board Im betting on a primo effort from the Rockets.Note:HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Dallas looks like they have stopped tanking, and have won 2 straight games, and well positioned  to make it 3 wins in a row vs a Minnesota group that has not played well on the road this season going 10-29 SU.  Dallas also won both games in this series this season. 

DALLAS is 12-3 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. MINNESOTA is 2-14 ATS  in road games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. 

Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Timberwolves are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 13-36  ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas to cover 

The Hornets  are 0-3 on a road trip that concludes Wednesday night in New Orleans with Charlotte's playoff hopes hanging by a thread . Needless to say they are desperate for a win and tonight I expect they leave everything on the floor and get us the cover. 

CHARLOTTE is 13-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

NEW ORLEANS is 4-12 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. 

NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 15-42 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate! 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The young Atlanta Hawks are playing hard, and showing promise for the future behind emerging super star Trae Young . Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just trying to stay healthy before the play offs begin, and tonight will be without  star Joel Embiid is OUT next 2 games ( Rest )and the banged up Jimmy Butler .  Note:The Hawks are 2-1 against the 76ers this season, including a 129-127 home victory on March 23, when Young had 32 points and 11 assists. QUOTE :"We clipped Philly last time, so I'm sure they are going to come in with a little bit of vengeance," Bazemore said on Fox Sports Southeast."With a couple of games left in the season, they are trying to be in the best position they can. At the same time, we're still trying to play spoiler and have a bunch of guys finish the season strong." END QUOTE.

Im betting Philly despite fo wanting revenge, still wont come out here with guns blazing as the bigger picture is more important. Look for Atlanta to hold serve and get us the cover.

Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

NIT - Semifinals - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY

TCU matches up well vs Texas. It must be noted that TCU is 11-3 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. 

TEXAS is 4-19 ATS  as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997

CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 25-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (TCU) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 74-33 ATS  L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on TCU to cover 

The Lakers come in here as big underdogs as they play without  LeBron James who has been shut down for the season, with an injury. However, the Lakers look like they have some fight left in them as they come in here off a win vs the New Orleans Pelicans last time out by DDs. Note: James is also expected to be on the bench as sort of an assistant coach, which is a huge motivation for this young group.   Meanwhile, the inconsistent  Thunder maybe getting to much respect in this spot,  as they are just 11-13 against the eight non-playoff teams in the Western Conference this season,  with 4 of their wins coming against the downtrodden Phoenix Suns. Note:Russell Westbrook had a triple-double last time out, but his team has fallen flat on their faces the L/7 times this has happened losing 6 times straight up and winning the lone game by 1 point.

Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Thunder are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

 Chicago are a group of walking wounded and hobbled athletes just trying to make to the end of what has been a frustrating rebuilding  season. I know the Knicks are not much better, but they are a healthier group playing on their own home floor and have an edge in this matchup between bottom feeders. This is a side option based on the lesser of two evils concept. 

NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses, in April games are 51-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate! 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Bucks played last night so they're a little tired. It must also be noted that Kris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo are questionable for Milwaukee tonight and if they do play Im betting they may not see that much time as the Bucks are more interested in staying rested and healthy as the play offs approach. Note:  

Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

, their hosts the Brooklyn Nets, every game left is like a playoff game, as they are in a fight for the final play off spot in the East. QUOTE:"I (said) at the end of the Philly game, every game is going to be worth it," the Nets' D'Angelo Russell said. "We need it -- scratching and clawing for every one of them. END QUOTE.

Milwaukee Beat Brooklyn by DD here in NYC back in February which will have the Nets not only desperate but in revenge mode.

BROOKLYN is 15-4 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

 Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

CBI Tournament - Championship Series - Game 1 (Best of 3)

From my head to head and player to player power ranking system, the wrong team is favored here. Note:  DePauls offense is explosive  and  South Florida will have-a hard time slowing down a side that has scored 90 or more points  in 6 of their L/7 trips to the floor. 

With  that said, I recommending backing DePaul in Game 1 of this series.

Blue Demons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bulls are 19-39 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big East.Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

DEPAUL is 23-8 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997. 

S FLORIDA is 5-14 ATS  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. S. FLORIDA is 16-30 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1997. S FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS  after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 3 seasons. 

CBB road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DEPAUL) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 104-50 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on DePaul to cover 

The San Antonio Spurs have secured a spot in the playoffs for the NBA-record-tying 22nd consecutive year, and there is no longer and urgency attached to their work, despite of still needing better seeding . Meanwhile, Sacramento has defeated the Spurs in both meetings this year and have shown they matchup well in this series, and very much look like viable underdogs in this spot. 

SACRAMENTO is 23-9 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.SAN ANTONIO is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

The Spurs are 0-17 ATS with 2+ days' rest when they are off a game as a home fav in which they scored 27.5%+ of their points from 3s and had a BAP of less than 75%. 

NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 13-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

NCAA - East Regional Finals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC

Duke looks a little bit over rated at the moment, of course outside of Zion Williamson. The rest of the Blue Devils seem tentative, and unsure of themselves, which is never a great thing against a team like Tom Izzos Michigan State. They should have lost to UCF and maybe even to  Virginia Tech , because of their inability to control the glass a, but today the Blue Devils luck Im betting will running out  vs a Michigan State side that ranks 21st in the nation in offensive rebounding . Im also betting the Spartans’ half-court defence to wreak havoc on Dukes downtown shots , and their aggressive physical nature to take Duke out of their comfort zone. 

MICHIGAN ST is 11-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better ) this season. MICHIGAN ST is 18-3 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.

DUKE is 2-12 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games this season.DUKE is 4-11 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Teams in the NCAA tourney like Auburn   who are off a explosive offensive effort of 80 points or more are 43-80-4 (35.0%) ATS since 2005. Running and gunning like that and scoring that many points alot of times results in a team being in an emotional letdown spot which Im betting will be the case here vs Kentucky this Sunday. Note:Kentucky went 2-0 vs. Auburn during the 2018-19 season, edging the Tigers 82-80 in Alabama on Jan. 19 before obliterating the men of Pearl 80-53 in Rupp Arena on Feb. 23 and matchup very well vs Auburn . Also the 3rd time is charm scenario dished out by pundits, and  that perpetuate the myth that its hard to beat a team 3 straight times especially if the 3rd game comes in the NCAA  tournament is a bunch of quackery,  as is evident by the fact that  in the last 10 seasons, the team that is 2-0 in a matchup has garnered victory 72% of the time . With that said   Im betting against a 3rd times a charm rebound scenario in this spot. Im betting on Kentucky moving on and getting us the cover in the process.

Play on Kentucky to cover 

The Bucks won the first meeting in this series this season in  Milwaukee 144-112 and smashed the Hawks 133-114 in the rematch in Atlanta. The Bucks have won six straight games against Atlanta and Im betting on more of the same one sided action here today against an Atlanta side the Bucks matchup very well against. 

The Bucks are 22-0 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses and committed fewer than 22 fouls. 

The Hawks are 0-17 ATS /0-17 SU L/17 as a 8+ dog with less than two days rest off a game as a dog after scoring 14.5 or more points less than Vegas projected.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Virginia looks offensively inept  to public bettors draining just  53 points in its victory versus the  Oregon Ducks. However,  it must be noted, however, that hoops programs that scored  less than 60 points  last time out  have gone 171-115-7 (60%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament, including 8-2 ATS in the Elite Eight onward to Final four and championship game. Purdue lives and dies with its 3 point shooting, and Im betting they will have issues vs the 2nd ranked beyond the arc D in the nation. Also teams in the NCAA tourney like Purdue who are off a explosive offensive effort of 80 points or more are 43-80-4 (35.0%) ATS since 2005 ( the Boilermakers scored 99 points vs Tennessee last time out to advance) Im expecting Purdue to run into a natural letdown situation and a nasty D, in a double whammy loss and failure to cover in this Elite 8 game. 

Virginia to cover 

The Raptors look to be coasting to the finish line, as they reserve energy for the post season as they rest players. Tonight I expect the banged up Bulls, despite of being short handed to stay close enough to get us the cover as home dogs vs what could easily be a disinterested opponent. 

The Raptors are 0-12 ATS  after a game as a road favorite in which they were outscored in the paint by double-digits which happened last time out at NY vs the Knicks. 

Underdogs like Texas Tech off a suffocating top tier defensive game have gone 168-123-6 (58%) ATS since 2005 in the NCAA Tourney. Note: HC  Beard is 24-9 ATS  after allowing 55 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997. Meanwhile,  teams like Gonzaga who scored  70 points more more  last time out are just  301-330 ATS ( 47%)  in the NCAA tourney. In a game that features a extremely strong D with the Raiders, against a Bulldogs side that owns a high proficiency offence, Im betting the D has an edge. Remember how at the end of the season in the West Coast Conference finals how St.Marys upset Gonzaga, well Tech is built the same way, and have even better overall athletes than the Gaels and must not be underestimated as underdogs in this spot. 

Few is 9-18 ATS  when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament as the coach of GONZAGA.Beard is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game after 15+ games as the coach of TEXAS TECH.

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

NCAA - East Regional Semifinals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC

UCF gave us a glimpse of what it takes to beat Duke by going zone on defence and forcing Duke to the out side. If it were not for Zion Williamsons great performance and the Blue Devils converting on more 3s than their season average, we would have watched a public favorite crash and burn. Now today against a VTech D, that is built to keep teams from penetrating deep and force them to make them shoot treys the Blue Devils a team that shoots just 30.7 % from downtown may have met their match. When these teams met earlier this season, both Williamson and Hokies star point guard Robinson were out , but the Hokies managed the straight up win. With both playing here today, Im expecting VTech to hold their own again, and get us the cover. 

DUKE is 2-11 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games this season.VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on VTech to cover 

The `Runners (18-15) are coming off back-to-back road victories in the first two rounds of the CIT. After defeating Cal State Fullerton, 66-58, CSUB handed Southern Utah a 70-67 loss on Monday. CSUB has 18 wins on the season, third-most in Bakersfield's NCAA Division I era and must not be underestimated as underdogs here vs Wisconsin Green Bay. The Roadrunners have a size advantage in key areas of this matchup, and that will negate Wisconsin Green Bays athleticism . Take the points.

CS-BAKERSFIELD is 21-9 ATS L/30 versus good shooting teams - making 45%  or more of their shots . CS-BAKERSFIELD is 12-1 ATS  after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1997. Barnes is 16-4 ATS in March games as the coach of CS-BAKERSFIELD. 

WI-GREEN BAY is 2-8 ATS  after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.

CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CS-BAKERSFIELD) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 or more shots/game), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 31-7 ATS L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on CS Baskersfield to cover 

The Rockets after losing last time out  to the Milwaukee Bucks  dropped four games behind the Denver Nuggets for the second seed in the Western Conference, and now will be primed for a big bounce back effort here at home against a team they have beaten 5 straight times at home. 

DENVER is 11-23 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.DENVER is 10-21 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 10-1 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.

Play on Houston to cover ( LATE STEAM)

  South Regional Semifinals - KFC Yum Center - Louisville, KY

My projections virtually make this game a pickem, thus we are getting value with Purdue according to my estimations. Tennessee is ripe in my betting onion to be picked off and upset here, as the Volunteers currently look vulnerable as was evident when they blew a 25-point lead against Iowa last time out and were forced to go into overtime on Sunday.

PURDUE is 8-2 ATS  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts this season.PURDUE is 20-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 2-8 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.

Play on Purdue to cover 

Red Sox starter Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA in 2018) is 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Mariners.  Seattles starter Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 last season) lost his only previous start against the Red Sox, allowing five runs and seven hits in six innings and is fade material here tonight.

 The Mariners are 0-7 SU since Jul 28, 2018 after they played extra innings which happened in their 2nd game in the series at Japan and they were out scored 66 -22 in those 7 tilts. 

BOSTON is 61-18  against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 3 seasons with average margin of victory coming by 2 rpg. BOSTON is 35-10 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 2.3 rpg. 

Play on Boston to cover -1.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have not been playing well for over a month now, but they have shown some flashes of brilliance and must not be underestimated to win and cover tonight vs  Indiana team that embarrassed them the last time the teams met, as they blew a 19 point lead and loss . Now with redemption at hand , Im expecting a rallying call vs a  Pacers side that has struggled on the road of late, dropping eight consecutive games away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse.  Im now betting in an effort to get rid of the  sting of that  above mentioned ugly loss the Thunder will be primed to get redemption. 

INDIANA is 3-11 ATS ( in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (INDIANA) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 9-60 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin point differential coming by-9.6 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March game are 38-6 SU L/5  seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by +9.4 ppg. 

Oklahoma City to cover 

Two rebuilding teams with no play off expectations g head to head tonight in the Bayou.   Atlanta has won two consecutive games against playoff teams and New Orleans has lost two consecutive games against playoff contenders.The Pelicans have lost eight of their last nine games, including a 128-116 loss to the Hawks on March 10 in Atlanta.Meanwhile, Atlanta is off two huge upset wins vs Utah and Philadelphia last time out by a 129-127 mark, and Im betting now will be in a huge let down spot. Note: NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - lower tier defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 63-115 ATS L/22 seasons for a 65% long term go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Also NBA team vs the money line (ATLANTA) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog, on Tuesday nights are 5-26 SU 22 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. I know the Pelicans dont have alot to play for but taking out another young team that has pulled off some upsets will be a ego boost for them and Im betting they play a motivated game here and get the win and cover.

Play on New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Orlando Magic, visit the Miami Heat on Tuesday night in a game with serious playoff implications and that Im betting will be a hard fought affair that makes taking the points golden. The Magic showed their prowess last night in a win vs Philadelphia at home in the Magic kingdom and will be primed to keep rolling tonight in their quest for a play off spot. Orlando currently on a 5 game win streak, are 4-1 SU/ATS in their L/5 visits to South Florida and get my support in this spot. 

Heat are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Heat are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Southeast.Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Tuesday games.

Play on Orlando to cover 

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

Its never easy for a team like Brown travelling for East to West, and their internal clocks should be effected , which should effect their offensive flow. This Brown team bases its successes and failures on play strong D, so that wont be effected here, but will directly make for a much slower paced conservative game plan, which in turn Im betting  will see a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. BROWN is 11-1 UNDER as a road underdog or pick this season.BROWN is 13-1 UNDER in road lined games this season.

It must also be noted that Loyola Marymount is also playing some strong defence, and   is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 55 points or less this season whihc was the case last time out. 

Play on the UNDER 

Orlando has won 4 straight home games during their current 5 game home stand. Im betting that tonight against Philadelphia in their 5th straight home game, that the wrong team is favored. I . know the Sixers have the better record and the higher profile player personell but the Magic are playing great cohesive basketball and exhibiting a great deal of chemistry and deserve respect here defending home court against the Sixers side, that is just 17-18 ATS overall on the road this season. It must also be noted that the Sixers are off a exhausting back and forth tilt vs the at Atlanta last time out that they looked a little tanked in from the start. 

ORLANDO is 11-3 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents this season. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 36-63 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover 

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

West Virginia has played better of late, but they are going against a under rated Coastal Carolina squad that has shot under 40% from the field only once all season long.  Coastal Carolina have won four of their last seven and have shown they have a never die attitude repeatedly this season  as was evident when they  trailed Howard by 14 with 13 minutes left on Wednesday before coming back for an 81-72 victory.  I like their grit and their ability to hand tough here tonight. 

W VIRGINIA is 9-22 ATS  as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 6-15 ATS as a 10 point or more fav at home. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-6 ATS  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

NIT - Second Round

Nebraska has recently impressed me with their  play, and after watching them beat Butler, last time out look very much a like a viable dark horse underdog in this tournament and today as dogs.  Meanwhile, TCU has gone 9-12 after a 12-1 start.From a data stats standpoint these are evenly matched teams. Nebraska is 48th in the NET while TCU is 52nd. The Huskers are 43rd in KenPom while TCU is 49th. TCU's strength of schedule is 45th while Nebraska's is 47th. Thus taking points here is avery viable investment option. 

NEBRASKA is 12-1 ATS  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NEBRASKA is 17-8 ATS  versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.NEBRASKA is 17-8 ATS  versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Nebraska to cover 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

 The Cougars looked good at the start of this NCAA tourney as  they took a 84-55 win over Georgia State . That kind of dominance will not come as easily vs Ohio State, a team that despite of struggling to score showed their ability to stand tall  defensively against Iowa State and advance . Tonight Im betting on this being a very physical closely contested battle, with alot of action in the paint, and under the glass.  

HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS L/12  as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

 Ohio State are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

Holtmann is 13-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached. 

CBB team (OHIO ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 148-92 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Ohio State to cover 

Texas converted 15-of-38 (39.5-percent) from three-point range during Tuesday's first-round win against South Dakota State and Im betting that will buoy them in a favorable matchup vs Xavier here today. 

TEXAS is 22-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread .TEXAS is 22-6 ATS  in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread 

CBB favorite (TEXAS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 97-58 L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Tennessee looked wobbly in their win vs Colgate last time out, and if that form continues here today they could find themselves on the sidelines after this the final buzzer goes off. Meanwhile, Iowa looked to be in top form against Cincinnati upsetting the Bearcats as underdogs to advance to the 2nd round. Note: IOWA is 11-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

At the end of the this season, Tennessee was starting to look vulnerable going just 7-4 SU and had failed to cover 8 of their L/12 and are not as potent looking as they were earlier in the season. Dont get me wrong their still a talented group, but as far as this line is concerned Im betting it slightly bloated thanks in part to their public popularity. With that said, lets take the points with a Iowa team that is currently in top form.

Barnes is 12-22 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games as the coach of TENNESSEE. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

The defending national champion Villanova Wildcats head into this 2nd round game against Purdue as underdogs. Villanova has to fight hard to get past a nasty St.Marys team that claws and scratches itself to being competitive. Meanwhile, Purdue had an easy go of it vs Old Dominion in a DD win.

This matchup, will feature a Purdue team ranked 12th in the  Big Ten in three point defense  going against a Villanova side that depends on taking foes out with downtown treys. Another negative for Purdue , is their inability to convert on FTs which is of ultimate importance in a game that is expected to be fairly close.  I know the Wildcats are not as strong as last years version, but they must be respected getting points vs a Boilermakers team that has not travelled all that well this season. Note:  Coach Jay Wright is 14-1 in its last 15 NCAA Tournament games.

Wildcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten.Wildcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games.

Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Boilermakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big East.Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Note: G Phil Booth of Villanova  in the 70th game in his career against non-Big East opposition . . . is 63-7 SU for a (.899) win %. . His team has 13 straight NCAA tourney victories when he plays . One more here today vs a Gaels team that might have to experience an emotional letdown scenario at the worst possible time.

Play on Villanova to cover 

The matchup pits the two teams with the most wins remaining in the NIT bracket. 

My own projections make NC Greensboro as -3 favorite thus giving us value on this pickem line according to my estimations. 

Bison are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Bison are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Bison are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Bison are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.

Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.Spartans are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Spartans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Spartans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Spartans are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on NC Greensboro to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

With dynamic G Justin Robinson expected back in the lineup for VTech after missing 12 games with an injury their opponents tonight St.Louis are in trouble. When the Hokies catalyst is in the lineup the team is 16-4 SU and must not be underestimated.Va Tech was upset  77-71 as a 13-point chalk  in their last meeting in 2017 and you can bet that this time this Hokies program and their coaching staff will be very well prepared and keep the pedal on the medal until the very end . Note: This is a 12 loss Billikens team that got hot at the end of the season, and truly is not in the same hemisphere of talent that the Hokies will have on the court. 

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.VIRGINIA TECH in their L/21 in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons have seen a +22.5 ppg differential. 

CBB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite are 68-31 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

The Heat Marched into San Antonio and ended the Spurs 9 game home winning streak last time out, and  have shown a propensity to be dangerous in the followup  as they are  12-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. The Heat should also be wide awake after   the Bucks  came back from 20 points at half time last week and win by a 113-98 count and will be in revenge mode and looking . for redemption for that embarrassment ( . Note: MIAMI is 13-3 ATS  in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. I waited around for most of the day looking for +9 to show back up again, but to much sharp money coming in is sinking this number to the 8.5 to 8 range. Still plenty of value here with the Heat in their current form against a Milwaukee Bucks team that will be careful with their super star the Greek Freak (  Giannis Antetokounmpo) is suffering with a nagging ankle injury. 

MIAMI is 22-10 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 12-4 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-22 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 59-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

Liberty and Mississippi State played four common opponents this season.... Austin Peay, Alcorn State, Alabama and Vanderbilt. Mississippi State smashed  all of them, including a split against Alabama. Liberty lost to each of them. Mississippi State went 4-1 against the list with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points. Liberty went just 1-3, and all three losses coming by nine points. The one win was over Alcorn State by 22. State won that game by 23. According to Kenpom Mississippi State is the 21st best team in the nation with the 30th toughest strength of schedule and have a definite edge here.

 822 Mississippi State  to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

Houston is in a nasty mood  entering this tournament after suffering a letdown and subsequent upset loss to Cincinnati in the AAC title game this past Sunday. I now expect them to come in here and lay down a beating on Georgia State for their 24th win and 26 games outside of their own conference.HOUSTON is 12-4 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots this season.HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. HC Sampson is 14-4 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached for Houston. 

Hunter is 13-25 ATS  versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game as the coach of GEORGIA ST. 

Play on Houston to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Utah State is explosive offensively  averaging 79.2 points a game, however, playing against the Huskies zone defense, and slow down offense their going to have their hands full. 

WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH ST is 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Washington to cover 

Thanks to StMarys looking good at the end of their season which culminated with an astonishing upset  of Gonzaga for their conference championship, they are now a trendy pick for public bettors, thus giving us value on the line with the defending NCAA champion Wildcats. Im betting on key offensive cog and big game  star of Villanova Phil Booth to be the catalyst behind them winning tonight and more importantly getting us the cover.  Note: Booth in  the 70th game in his  career against non-Big East opposition  . . .  is 62-7 SU for a  (.899)  win %.Booth has made 16 consecutive free throws in NCAA Tournament competition,  with his only miss coming in his only FT attempt in the 2016 Round-of-64 Game against UNC Asheville. Booth has 13 turnovers in 14 career NCAA Tournament games covering more 319 minutes  of action for an amazing turnover ratio one turnover every 24.5 minutes of playing time. Booth is 5-for-6 (83.3%) from the three-point line in three NCAA Tournament Round-of-64 Games. His team has 12 straight NCAA tourney victories when he plays . One more here today vs a Gaels team that might have to experience an emotional letdown scenario at the worst possible time.

VILLANOVA is 6-0 ATS  in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.VILLANOVA is 17-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons. 

ST MARYS-CA is 1-8 ATS  in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Villanova to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

We have all heard about west Texas pride and tonight  Im betting this dog has fight. This Abilene Christian hoops program has only been eligible for this tourney for only two years, and has an  enrollment of about 3,600 making it an optimum small school success story entering the NCAA tournament.The Wildcats finished 27-6 overall with a 14-4 mark in the league and must not be underestimated here vs a young Kentucky team that has alot more pressure on them then their opponents. My projections make the Wildcats -18 favs here this giving us value on a slightly bloated public line. 

Play on Abilene Christian  plus the points 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Wells Fargo Arena - Des Moines, IA

Bradely is a team that plugs the paint and that trys to  make you beat them shooting 3s. They use a NBA-style philosophy on ball-screen defense that is highly efficient. they play tough and their 1-2-2 zone defence is a nightmare to play against. All I can say is that we have value with kind of team as a underdog vs a public team that has just to high a asking price on them at the moment. With that said, lets take the points.

BRADLEY is 9-1 ATS after allowing 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons and is 30-13 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival . 

Play on Bradley to cover 

Im one of those guys who   believes that the Oklahoma City Thunder have what it takes to hang with the best teams from both the west and the eastern conferences despite of a downturn of late and are worth of us laying points with them here tonight vs the Toronto Raptors.

Note: The Raptors are off a 128 -92 beatdown which is not a good omen for their chances here tonight vs a side trying to recalibrate and are desperate for positive momentum before the reg season winds down. 

Raptors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Raptors are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

TORONTO is 3-13 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. TORONTO is 11-21 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.The Raptors are 4-27 ATS L/31 with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 12 offensive rebounds. 

NBA Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's are 124-32 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average point diff of 9.4 ppg. 

Play on Oklahoma city to cover 

 Washington defeated the Bulls  134-125  at Chicago last month and Im betting on a repeat performance tonight as they chase a play off birth in desperation mode.  The Wizards cannot afford losses .  Meanwhile, the Bulls are off a win last time out vs the Suns, but that not a great omen for them here as CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. 

CHICAGO is also  2-10 ATS L/12 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and a 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.

Play on the Wash Wizards to cover 

NIT - First Round- No. 3 seed Georgetown hosts No. 6 seed Harvard. 

Harvard has had a winning record in nine of the past 10 seasons under coach Tommy Amaker and has a experienced squad, with a never say die attitude and will not be easily defeated here. 

.

Harvard is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.Georgetown University is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games at homeHARVARD is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.HARVARD is 21-9 ATS  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72%or more  of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.HARVARD is 11-3 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

GEORGETOWN is 2-9 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.GEORGETOWN is 5-16 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Harvard to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH

Temple is highly under rated as was evident when, beating Houston and had only one loss in the third-fourth quadrant (15-1 record). They barley got to the elimination game for the tournament but are highly dangerous in a game that is being lined as close and according to my rankings are dead even with Belmont thus giving us value on the line. Note: Temple is 9-2  SU in games decided by five points or fewer and are a perfect  4-0  in overtime games.

TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Neutral court teams (BELMONT) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season are 54-95 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

672 Temple  to cover

Atlanta is one of the few teams that has had some  success in "slowing" Houston's James Harden. With Harden a little banged up after straining his neck again in last trip to the hardwood, the young Hawks could find a way to slow him again, which will give them a strong chance at covering as home dogs in this spot.The Hawks explosive offence has averaged 123.1 points in their first 12 games since the All-Star Game, but only 91 on Sunday, but Im betting they bounce back here in this spot play. 

HOUSTON is 8-20 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons and is 4-12 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.HOUSTON is 6-14 ATS  as a road favorite this season. Atlanta has covered 14 of the L/20 meetings between these franchises. 

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 31-10 ATS L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Robert Morris fell in the semifinals of the 2019 Northeast Conference Tournament with a 66-62 setback @ Fairleigh Dickinson and will be primed for bounce back here to start the CIT. This game is being lined a essentially a pickem, which gives an edge to Robert Morris as Head coach Andrew Toole owns the highest winning percentage (.615) in games decided by five points or less (minimum 50 games) during the KenPom era (2002 to present). In nine seasons under Toole, the Colonials have posted a record of 59-37 in games decided by five points or less.

ROBERT MORRIS is 11-3 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.ROBERT MORRIS is 6-0 ATS off a road loss this season. 

Play on Robert Morris to cover 

The Bulls defeated Phoenix 124-116 on Nov. 21 as hosts. LaVine scored 29 points for Chicago and according to my power rankings matches up very  well vs the Suns. The Suns are 0-12-1 ATS (/0-13 SU off a win as a road dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. NBA favorites (PHOENIX) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 73-121 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. ( Suns beat Pelicans in OT last time out on the road)

PHOENIX is 1-8 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.

CHICAGO is 21-8 ATS  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Spurs have won 10 straight at home and are a season-best 12 games over .500 and are viable bets here as hosts in their current form, yes even against the defending Golden State Warriors.The Spurs and Warriors have split their two meetings this season, with both winning at home and Im betting the host side will hold serve again. SAN ANTONIO is 25-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season and s 21-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 21-3 revenging a road loss overall  and also 8-1 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. (GS beat SA at home on Jan 6 141-102 in merciless fashion and now pay back is at hand)

GOLDEN STATE is 9-25 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game with the lone win coming by 1 point.The Warriors are 1-17-1 ATS /2-17 SU on the road with rest off a game as a dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. 

Play on the San Antonio spurs to cover 

Houston according to my projections should be 7 point favs here thus we have value laying the short lumber here. 

Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. In the 5 championship games in this series, 

Bearcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Bearcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Bearcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. American Athletic Conference.Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.Cougars are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.Cougars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.Cougars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Cougars are 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 vs. American Athletic Conference.Cougars are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Cougars are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win.Cougars are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.

Play on Houston to cover 

Tennessee down by 7 points with under 5 minutes left yesterday came back with a tenacious effort to get the win vs Kentucky and will now be in a natural letdown spot . The Tigers also played a hard fought game vs Florida, but controlled most of the game until the end  needing a big shot to win it for their 7th straight victory. Needless to say both teams are on tired legs . With that that said look for a grinding closely contested affair. Auburn  is currently playing their best hoops of the season and  defeated Tennessee to end the reg campaign, by 4 points, so they have the confidence knowing they can play with this Vols team and get my support getting points here in the SEC championship game. 

Auburn to cover 

Two struggling teams go head to head this afternoon as the Knicks enter this home game on a 8 game losing streak as they take on a Lakers side with losses in 7 of their L/8 games overall. The Lakers despite of probably having super star LeBron James in the lineup for this game are on tired legs now playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, and in their last effort they were short handed and had to play everybody and use up alot of minutes. Im now betting the fatigue factor makes the Lakers less than stable underdog on this line this afternoon.

Lakers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in New York.

Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.EW YORK is 14-3 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons.

Lakers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Lakers are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. Eastern Conference. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Walton is 8-19 ATS  in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days as the coach of LA LAKERS.

The Lakers are 0-11 ATS L/11 on the road with rest off a loss in a road game in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter.The Lakers are 0-9 ATS L/9 (/SU with less than two days rest after they scored more than 50 points in the paint.

LA LAKERS are 9-22 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season. LA LAKERS are 4-15 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 28-19 SU for a 60% conversion rate over the 5 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 10-30 SU L/40 with a -7.6 differential. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

Conference USA Tournament - Championship Game - Frisco, TX

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers’ own a  15-1 ATS record as postseason underdog and must not be underestimated in what my own projections estimate is a favourable matchup's for them from a system vs system power ranking chart I use. 

W KENTUCKY is 10-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game  like Old Dominion over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Both these teams won on their own home court in their 2 meetings this season. Now in a neutral court environment I like the experience of Calapari and company to prevail . Kentucky has been bolstered by the return of key post player Reid Travis, who had 11 points and eight rebounds in the victory over Tennessee. He was sidelined by a knee injury in the rematch, and Kentucky missed him a great deal, and he could be the difference maker again. 

Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Wildcats are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 neutral site games.

Calapari knows how to win big games in the finals rounds of a tournament going 33-5 SU  in the Semis and finals in his career. 

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Even though Zach Lavine is expected back in the lineup for the Bulls tonight Im not sold on them being any less than 10 point dog here and Im betting we have value on the line with the explosive home team in this spot play at anything under DDs. 

LA CLIPPERS are 14-3 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 ATS  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 12.8 ppg.

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

The Blazers are a fine team but are getting way to much respect here and the value rests with the New Orleans Hornets as home dogs. You have to remember that the Blazers are below 500 road team with a 16-17 record while the Pelicans are a above 500 home team with a 18-15 record. I know Jrue Holiday is out for the Pelicans, but they're are young guys like Elfrid Payton who have stood tall thanks as is evident by a triple double  in his L/2 trips to the hardwood. With that said, Im recommending we take the points. 

Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 ATS  off a home loss this season.NEW ORLEANS is 15-7 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Pelicans are 18-2-1 ATS L/20 at home off a loss in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws.

PORTLAND is 8-19 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons and is 3-13 ATS  in road games off a road blowout win by 20 points or more. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Big East Conference Tournament - Semifinals - New York, NY

Xavier entered this tournament playing their best basketball of the season, winning 6 of their L/7 games, and then won game 1 of the big East tournament with 63-61 win vs Creighton. On Feb 23rd of this season Xavier proved they matchup well vs Villanova winning by a 66-54 count so they have confidence entering this tilt with their abilities to not only compete but to upset the Wildcats. Meanwhile, Villanova lost 5 of their L/8 games tilts entering the tourney, and despite of taking out Providence in their big East opener, just don't look as explosive as they did last season, mostly because of their youth and inexperience as compared to last years national  championship team. It must also be noted Villanova has had a hell of time in game 2s of this tourney, going just 1-10 ATS L/11 opportunities. With that said, Im betting that if Villy wins here and advances it wont come easily, thus taking points will be golden. 

A potential NCAA Tournament berth hangs in the balance for the Musketeers. Xavier's currently No. 70 in the NCAA NET rankings and Creighton's up to No. 54 after winning five in a row. So from a motivational factor alone we have a desperate team to back.

Play on Xavier to cover 

Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Brooklyn, NY

This line signifies a close game, which in effect makes my decision to take the points here valid considering  that since the start of 2017-18, Mason is 13-3 in A-10 games decided by five points or less. That includes an 11-3 mark in the regular season and 2-0 record in the A-10 Tournament. Meanwhile, the Bonnies are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.and  are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games  are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

CBB Neutral court teams as an underdog (GEORGE MASON) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 131-78 ATS L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on George Mason to cover 

 AAC Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Memphis, TN

UConn men's basketball used a balanced attack and hot-shooting from the field to earn an 80-73 win over the USF Bulls  and enter this game with momentum. The Huskies have covered 4 straight in this series and must be respected as underdogs in this spot vs Houston. 

CBB Neutral court teams (CONNECTICUT) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 38-22 SU L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate.

Play on UConn to cover 

Dallas has lost six straight and 11 of 12 and I personally dont like their current form.Dallas had more adversity Wednesday when its flight to Denver was delayed by a snowstorm, dubbed the "bomb cyclone" blew through Colorado and will now be completely exhausted entering this game and could easily end up on the wrong end of a ugly DD beatdown. Also star euro Doncics is also hobbled and if he plays could be hobbled. With that said, Im going to lay DDs here in a contest that does not favor visiting Dallas in the the thin air of the  Mile High City tonight. 

DENVER is 17-4 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with the average point diff clicking in at 11.7 ppg.

NBA Road underdogs of +375 or higher vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games are 1-82 SU L/22 seasons for a99%conversion rate with the average score diff clicking in at 13.5 ppg. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Pac 12 Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Las Vegas, NV

Even though the grabbed a season-finale victory against the Arizona Wildcats this past Saturday, there  is still a chance ASU misses the NCAA Tournament. Needless to say they need s wins and will come out here against UCLA like gang busters. 

Arizona State is Second in the Pac-12 in scoring (77.7)
and  Second in Pac-12 in FG% defense (.411)and also Leads league in offensive rebounds per game (12.2). Note: UCLA is 1-10 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season and are   1-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season. 

UCLA is 2-9 ATS as an underdog this season. ARIZONA ST is 6-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

No.2 seeds are 11-2 ATS since 2014 when they are 6 pointer less favs. 

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Utah State enters this game on fire having on 7 straight games and 14 of their L/15 overall and must be respected even as DD favs  here vs an over matched New Mexico side. During its recent seven-game winning streak, Utah State is shooting 46.2 percent from the floor, 33.1 percent from behind the 3-point line and 74.2 percent  at the free throw line. Utah is well rested after conference play, whihc is a good omen as they are UTAH ST is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing with 7 or more days rest with the average point diff clicking in at 13.9 ppg. 

 NEW MEXICO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. with the average point diff clicking in at 17.9 ppg.

CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (UTAH ST) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an explosive offensive team (76 PPG or more ) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Utah State to cover 

The Raptors,are off getting manhandled by the Cleveland last time out by a  126-101 count and lost Serge Ibaka to a three-game suspension for a fight during the game. He is a key cog in this teams flow and Im betting it will directly effect their ability to cover the number vs a Lakers squad looking for positives despite of having LeBron James healthy and in the lineup. The Raps Kyle Lowry will play, despite of some nagging injuries ,  but  overall he has looked distracted lately and has constantly been arguing with referees.Im betting his negative mood will have a direct effect on his teammates. 

The Lakers are 12-1 ATS L/12 off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS n road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons

The Raptors are 0-10 ATS at home with rest off a road game in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes. TORONTO is 12-23 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Florida State, the tournament’s No. 4 seed, takes on fifth-seeded Virginia Tech – which they beat in Tallahassee last week – at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. and have the advantage again despite of the Hokies desperation factor. 

The Seminoles have a spot in the Big Dance guaranteed, having won 11 of their last 12 games and finishing fourth in the nation’s staunchest basketball conference. But despite of this they still are very motivated to get wins.  QUOTE: “We want to make it as far as we can and then just use that as momentum going into the (NCAA) tournament,” junior guard Trent Forrest said. “So I would say we just want to stay locked in and continue to win games.” END QUOTE. Also  the Seminoles will be very motivated for the rematch, regardless of any big-picture implications as when they played last week, they were taken to the brink by VTech and had to win in OT. 

The difference maker Im betting tonight will come via a very deep bench, while the Hokies’ rotation only goes about seven deep. Considering their starters  played at least 28 minutes against Miami last time out – and now playing again today after playing yesterday will be on tired legs giving the Seminoles the edge.

Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Seminoles are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.

Play on Florida State to cover 

NC State used a strong second-half surge to come back and defeat Clemson on Wednesday  and have momentum entering this tilt vs No.1 seed Virginia and defending ACC champion . Note:defending champion in the ACC tournament is 4-13-1 ATS as a favorite in its first round game the following season since 2001 campaign.UVA posted a 66-65 overtime win at NC State this season, in a tilt that proved to me that the  Wolfpack's style gave the Cavaliers alot of problems and Im betting they will irritate Virginia again today. 

NC State defeated Virginia 75-56 in the last meeting between the teams at the ACC Tournament in 2013.

Take the points with the NC State to cover 

Big East Conference Tournament - First Round - New York, NY

 The Blue Demons enter the 2019 tournament with six total games of BIG EAST Tournament experience on the active roster and must be respected as underdogs vs St.Johns.

DePaul has outrebounded the opponent in 21 of 29 games and Im betting they have an edge again as they have won 15 of those 21 games SU. DePaul won both regular season meetings, three of the last four and get the nod to be competitive again and even pull off the SU upset. 

  ST JOHNS is 1-8 ATS  in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.

CBB team (ST JOHNS) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team (76 PPG or more) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG) after 15+ games are 43-76 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on DePaul to cover 

The Heat are off a down effort last time out against vs the Raptors which ended a 4 game win streak. Tonight vs the visiting crew from Motown Im betting the Heat bounce back in what is  a more favourable matchup, behind a third ranked D and an offence that is virtually equal with that of the Pistons.  MIAMI is 21-8 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and  are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record like the Pistons.

The Heat are 12-0-1 ATS /13-0 SU as a favorite off a loss in a home game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers. 

The Pistons are 3-21 ATS  and 0-24 SU L/24 as a road dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss as a dog in which they scored fewer than 85 point

DETROIT is 3-11 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. DETROIT is 8-22 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.  

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 27-6 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

Memphis turned over a lot of its roster at the deadline, it has gone 5-4 since the All-Star Game and has won four of its last five and deserves our attention here vs the young Atlanta Hawks. With key Grizzlies Cog Conley having performed well in the past vs the  Hawks averaging 15.6 points and 7.1 assists in 17 career games against the Hawks I look for him to be the catalyst for a Memphis win and cover here tonight.Memphis won the first meeting 131-117 in October and get the nod again. Hey I know perceptions and sometimes be powerful, and alot like the way the young Hawks have played, but they are still highly inconsistent and not a viable bet in spots like this as they are coming off a home win vs a New Orelans team that has given up on their season. Note: ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this seasonATLANTA is 4-16 ATS  in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons and is 9-23 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. 

The Grizzlies are 12-0 ATS /SUwith rest off a win as a favorite in which they had at least 25% of their points from free throws. 

NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games are 20-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

 Bucknell goes for their third straight Patriot League Championship tonight vs Colgate as underdogs. Bucknell has won 8 straight Patriot League tournament games, and must be respected here as underdogs because of their pedigree and top tier coaching. Yes, this game is Colgate, and I know that Bucknell has lost 3 straight road games, but despite of this there is just to much value to pass up here with this type of team.

Play on Bucknell to cover 

ACC Conference Tournament - Second Round - Charlotte, NC

Bringing their depleted roster to Charlotte and entering the tournament on the heels of a seven-game losing streak, not much was expected of Mike Brey’s squad , but thye found a way to get by Georgia Tech and advance to this tilt vs Louisville. Meanwhile, the Cardinal despite fo a decent record this season, struggled down the stretch, losing 6 of their L/8 and have not been very consistent on the road this season and have won just five of 11 games. Im betting on the luck of the Irish to be prevalent today and for them to somehow find a way to be competetive. 

CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (LOUISVILLE) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a terrible shooting team (40%or less) are 16-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion for bettors on the blind.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Richmond is averaging 70.8 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field, 35.1% from behind the arc and 66.6% from the foul line this season. Fordham averaging just 56.2 ppg in their L/5. 

Neubauer is 0-7 ATS  in all neutral court games as the coach of FORDHAM.

FORDHAM is 8-20 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.

FORDHAM is 4-14 ATS  versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.

Richmond to cover 

Pac 12 Conference Tournament - First Round - Las Vegas, NV

My own projections make the wrong team the favorite here today. Defensively, the Trojans often use a 2-3 zone often, and held UA to under 30 percent shooting on Jan. 24. Rinse and repeat. 

ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS  versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season.ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. 

USC is 36-19 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1997.USC is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on USC

ACC Conference Tournament - Second Round - Charlotte, NC

 NC State closed the regular season in top tier fashion, going on the road to defeat Boston College, 73-47, and now have momentum entering this tilt against Clemson. The Pack's bench is averaging 30.6 points per game and has outscored the opponent's bench by 448 points this season and that will be the difference maker here today. 

Note: In ACC games, NC St shot better on the road than at home. NC State converted on 43.7% from the field and 38% from three-point range in conference road games this season.

CLEMSON is 4-14 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997

 NC STATE is 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season and is 7-1 AT in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42%  or less this season and also 8-2 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. 

NC STATE is 6-0 ATS  in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season.

622 North Carolina State to cover 

Dallas has lost 5 straight and San Antonio has won 5 straight. But current form usually goes out the window when these instate NBA rivals go to head. In recent meetings the Spurs have failed to cover 8 straight meetings vs the Mavs when they are not getting points like tonight. With Dallas out looking for same season double revenge in this series Im betting they will be highly motivated . Note:Dallas’14-3 ATS as a underdog in this series when playing with same- season double revenge. 

The Mavericks are 23-3 ATS/22-4 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range.

The Spurs are 2-16 ATS with rest when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and are 0-10 ATS when they won 3 straight vs current opponent.

Play on Dallas to cover 

From what Ive seen from the Knicks of late tells me a story of a team that is in tank mode and has no fight left in them at all. It looks very much like the famous swan dive for draft picks is on. With that said, Im going to do something that I do on  the rare occasion and that is to lay DDs with the more motivated team the  Indiana Pacers. Note: INDIANA is 8-0 ATS  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or less - 2nd half of the season this season with the average victory coming by 15.8 ppg.

Indiana took out the Knicks on Jan 11 at MSG by a 121 -106 count and a similar score is not out of the question in the rematch.

The Knicks are 0-13 ATS/SU as a 8+ dog with less than two days rest off a loss as a road dog in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with every loss coming by more than this asking price

The Knicks are 0-13 ATS/SU on the road after a game as a road dog in which they had less than 10% of their points from free throws with the average point diff clicking in at -13.5 ppg. 

The Knicks are 0-12 ATS/SU with less than two days rest off a loss as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebound with the average point diff clicking in at -16.1 ppg. 

NBA Road underdogs of +375 or higher vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games are 1-80 SU  L/22 seasons with the combined average point diff clicking in at -13.9 ppg. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The N.Kentucky Norse are a team that can beat you with an explosive offense or a stingy D, while Wright State is more a defensive type team. The Norse averaged 80 points per game in the regular season, and was showcased   in the quarterfinals in a 99-88 victory . They followed that with  physical  battle in a 64-63 win over Oakland in the semifinal and once again Im betting they have the edge here.  Both teams split the seasons series, both winning on home court but on a neutral court my projections favor N.Kentucky by 3 thus according to my estimates we have value on a pickem line. 

Norse are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.

Play on N.Kentucky to cover 

Pitt had a horrendous game and shot just 29.0 percent (20-of-69) from the field in a nine-point loss at Boston College earlier this season, but this Pittsburgh team has shown alot of grit of late, and beat Notre Dame last time out, and now have the confidence to make two in row here against a side that is just  2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

. Panthers lead the ACC with 16.4 made free throws per game and Im betting that will be the difference maker here today against Boston College.

Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.PITTSBURGH is 15-3 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Play on Fairleigh Dickinson to cover 

Going 11-5 in America East play this season, UMBC's lone home loss came against Hartford and  they lost the season series and Im betting they lose here again tonight. The difference maker will behind one of the schools all time greatLynch who has been  red of late, as he enters the conference semifinals riding Hartford's longest active double-figure scoring streak at 13 gamesHe has  been the catalyst for Hartford in his last seven games — a stretch that has seen the team go 7-2 — by averaging 19.4 ppg Lynch is shooting 55 percent shooting over his last nine, including a 26-for-49 clip (53%) from three. Maryland Baltimore has no answers for this top tier player. Hartford to cover 

Boston after a slump looks to be back in gear as the season winds and down and are currently a very dangerous opponent for all comers and  especially vs a inconsistent Clippers team that they will be out to beat on here in revenge mode.Note: Boston lost to the Clippers 123-112  in Boston as 11.5-point chalk  in February when they were slumping and now have pay back on board. 

LA is just 2-8 ATSL/10 at home vs Atlantic Division sides.

BOSTON is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. BOSTON is 37-21 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Celtics are 12-0 ATS with rest off a 10+ win as a favorite in which they had 30+ assists.

Rivers is 18-34 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA CLIPPERS. 

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off 3 or more consecutive road wins are 56-21 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA CLIPPERS) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 19-45  ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Horizon Conference Tournament - Semifinals - Detroit, MI - Detroit, MI

The Golden Grizzlies head into the semifinals after defeating No. 6 seed Youngstown State, 88-84 in the quarterfinals at the Blacktop at the O'rena.Oakland after a sub par year compared to their usual standards are currently on fire entering this tilt vs N.Kentucky with 5 straight wins. I know on paper N.Kentucky looks like the superior side, but in a tourney game like this the obvious stats are off the table, and instead pedigree and coaching must be respected. Oakland has that in spades, and gets my support here plus the points. 

N KENTUCKY is 7-14 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.N KENTUCKY is 1-10 ATS  off 3 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons. 

OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Kampe is 21-7 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games as the coach of OAKLAND.

Play on OAKLAND to cover 

Utah is off a loss vs a up trending Memphis team last time out, as they probably made the mistake of over looking them. Note :The Jazz are 13-0 ATS/SU as a favorite off a loss with each game coming in convincing fashion with the average point differential clicking in at 20 ppg. Now in rebound mode, and ready for redemption the Jazz look like good bets at home as short chalk to take out a struggling Oklahoma City. Thunder team that has failed to cover  9 of their L/10 . Yes, the Thunder had 3 wins during this ATS nightmare run, with one win coming in OT vs. the Blazers,  one against Memphis in a late ferocious comeback and  a 1 point OT win that the Jazz blew numerous opportunities in. So with the Jazz looking fro revenge and redemption right here on their own floor where they are 21-11 SU this season they look very much like viable short favs. 

 NBA Home teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 83-32 SU L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at +6.8 ppg.

Play on Utah to cover 

Detroit played yesterday in a win vs Chicago and will now play their 6th game in 9 days and 3rd in 4 days , and fatigue could easily play a factor in their ability to extend a 4 game win streak tonight vs the Brooklyn Nets. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has also won 3 straight but are much fresher after a couple days off, and Im betting they will have the extra needed energy on their own home floor to come out of this battle on top. 

DETROIT is 11-22 ATS   when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 8-21 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. 

The Pistons are 0-12 ATS/SU as a road dog off a 10+ win as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.The Pistons are 0-11 ATS /SU with no rest off a win as a favorite in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent.

The Nets are 19-3 ATS/21-1 SU as a home favorite with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Nets are 9-0 ATS/SU as a home favorite with rest off a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. 

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DETROIT) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 43-172 L/5 seasons for a  go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

Mid American Conference Tournament - First Round

Earlier this season, EMU came away with a thrilling 84-82 victory in double overtime in Muncie and overall thye matchup well vs Ball State. Eastern has held a firm advantage against Ball State in its MAC Tournament history,  having won five straight post season meetings. E.Michigan at the  Convocation Center in the MAC championship round are 6-2 lifetime .

s versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 assists/game over the last 2 seasons.BALL ST is 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. 

 Road teams as an underdog or pick (BALL ST) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 2-26 L/22 seasons for a go against 93% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Mid American Conference Tournament - First Round

Central Michigan won both regular-season matchups against Western Michigan this year by 21 and seven points in the W Michigan finale, and  from a records perspective it might seem that there is an obvious edge here laying the points  with the Chippewas. However, from a key power ranking post season system I consistently use, Im betting their is value with the under valued underdog. They played the Chips tough just the other day, in a strong 2nd half surge and had a 14-1 run at one point, and they now have confidence and the ability to be a headache for the Central Michigan again. 

Play on Western Michigan to cover