Gophers happy to be home after dropping b2b road games. They're 2-0 here with wins over Eastern Michigan and Nebraska. They beat EMU by 19 as 20-point favorites. This line is much lower than that one but the Gophers are fully capable of winning by at least that many again. Cajuns are playing their third road game in four weeks and facing their toughest opponent yet. It will catch up with them. Expect the Gophers' advantages to be clearly evident and for them to improve to 12-8 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were home chalk of -10 to -14.5 points. *12 ET Blowout

I always like getting points with the superior team. Even more when my team is playing at home. These teams are both new to the Big 12 this season. Both came up short in their conference opener. The ground game may have struggled but the Cougar passing attack is clicking on all cylinders. Expect another big day through the air against an inexperienced and vulnerable Bearcat secondary. This is not an easy place to play. The Cougars have outscored opponents 41-15 in going 2-0 here so far. They're 11-3 straight-up their last 14 here, 3-0 when the total fell in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Bearcats have played pretty well but they're still a team which lost a lot from last year and which has a new coach. It catches up with them in Provo, Fright night. BYU scores the minor upset in its Big 12 home opener! *Big 12 GOM

The series is tied 1-1. The Sun covered both meetings at New York and got the straight-up split. The Liberty know that they need to reclaim homecourt advantage. With this game now being played at Connecticut, the line is much lower on NY than it was for the first two games. If they win, as I believe that they will, they don't have a big number to worry about covering. Each of the past seven meetings was decided by five or more points. The Liberty were 17-3 on the road this season. That was the best road record in the league. In fact, both these teams had better records away from home. The Liberty are the better team and they'll show it. Lay the points. *WNBA GOM

The Jays are taking this game very seriously and that means that Kikuchi, having a career year, gets the start instead of Ryu. He'll be opposed by Civale who has recently fallen victim. to the long ball. Civale has a 9.00 ERA his last three starts. He got taken deep at least once in all three of those and in five of his last six. Kikuchi with 14 K's against one walk and zero home runs, his last two starts. Both resulted in Toronto wins. The Jays are 20-11 with him on the mound and they improve on those numbers today. *Round Tripper

Its early but this game will likely go a long way in ultimately determining the division champion. After years of suffering, Detroit and its fans desperately want this. You can't always get what you want but in this case, the Detroit faithful will finally be rewarded. The Lions have been stockpiling talent over the years and now have a better team than the Packers. That's why they're small favorites, despite the game being played at Lambeau. You may be surprised to learn that the Lions are 10-2 ATS their last 12 divisional games. They're also 3-0 ATS their past three Thursday night games. The Lions, who already won at Arrowhead, have arguably faced stiffer competition than the Packers. They'll find a way to win this game and to seize early control of the division. *NFC North GOY

This very low total says a lot about these teams. They don't possess the type of offenses that keep defensive coordinators up at night. They're still good to get over this low number though. The Gamecocks have scored 16 or more points in all four games and they're averaging just shy of 26 per game. The Bearkats have struggled to score but that's due to who and where they've been playing. Their three opponents were Houston, BYU and Air Force. A home game against Jacksonville State provides a much easier opportunity to move the ball and score points. They'll take advantage, as will their guests. Go with the Over! *CUSA TOY

Milwaukee, now 17-9 as home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. lost yesterday but will enjoy an advantage today. Miley is 9-4 this season. The Brewers are 14-8 when he pitches, 5-1 the last six. Miley just delivered six scoreless innings against St. Louis. Thompson got beaten up by the Brewers the previous day. Milwaukee won 8-2. He's got a 6.60 ERA his last three starts. Also a solid edge in the bullpen for the Brew Crew. Adds up to a big win. *Round Tripper

Game 1 saw these teams combine for 180 points. Forty-eight of those came in the final quarter. Game 2 has a higher total but will produce a lower final score. The Aces can score but can also dominate teams defensively. They held Chicago to 70 and 59 points in the two games of the opening round. Both those games fell below the total. They'll flex their defensive muscles in this one and keep the final score below the large number. *WNBA Total Of The Month

The Blue Jays won this same head-to-head matchup on Sept. 20th. With that result, the Yankees are 0-3 in King's last three starts. Yankees won yesterday but they're only 39-40 off a win. Jays didn't play and they're 14-7 when coming off an off day. Gausman consistently gives innings and a chance for Toronto to win, nearly every time he takes the mound. The Jays are 4-1 his last five starts. They're 51-27 in September the last few years and they'll improve on those stats today.

Both teams played high scoring games on Sunday. This one will be different. Verlander against Castillo facing each other in a huge game. Talk about a heavyweight fight! These guys are both absolute aces. Verlander can still dominate. His last road start, he allowed one earned run in 7 innings. Castillo has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in five of his past six starts, including each of his past three. His last two home starts both finished with identical 3-2 scores. He held Houston to a single unearned run through 7 innings, back in July. Knowng their teams are in need, Castillo and Verlander both bring their A-Game in this one. Enjoy the old fashioned pitcher's duel.

Will Burrow play? My hunch is that he will. Either way, I still really like the under. Even with Burrow, the Cincinnati offense has been a mess. The Bengals rank dead last in the league, in terms of both points per game (13.5) and total yards. Fixing the problems against the Aaron Donald and the Rams won't be easy. (Remember the SB?) The Rams rank #6 in terms of yards allowed per game. The Bengals are better defensively than they've shown. Let's not forget that they allowed only 16.7 ppg last year. Only Dallas (16.5) allowed less. Points won't come easily for either team. Go with the Under! *MNF Total Of The Month

The Steelers looked better than the Raiders last week. They were at home for the second straight week though. The Raiders were playing a road game against one of the best team's in the NFL, their second straight on the road. This time, it's the Raiders who will benefit from being at home. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS the past five instances where they were home favorites of three or less. During that time, the Steelers are 2-3 ATS when off a divisional win. Off their win over the Browns and playing on a short week (Remember, Pittsburgh's last game was on MNF.) the Steelers will struggle. They won a close on against the Raiders at Pittsburgh last meeting but the Raiders are still 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. They'll be fired up for the home opener and will come away with the win and cover. *NFL GOW

It's not a secret that the Falcons are going to feature a lot of running plays. They did so last year and they're doing so again this season. Running the ball with regularity keeps the clock moving. While the Falcons rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game, the Lions rank in the Top 10. Atlanta is running 35.5 times per game. Detroit is doing so 30.5 times. So, it's safe to assume that this game is going to see a lot of rushing. The Lions are off a high-scoring game. That reminded many of their previously poor defense and helped in providing a high total. Remember, that the Lions' opener saw them hold KC to only 20 points, a 21-20 final. This is actually a much improved defense from last year. The Falcons defense is playing well. Atlanta has allowed an average of only 17 ppg. Since last year, the Falcons have allowed 24 or fewer points in nine straight games. None of their last eight games have reached the 50 point mark and six of those finished with less than 40. This game will be low-scoring. *Sept. Total Of The Month

These clubs are undoubtedly more capable of scoring than the ones we discussed (Fulham and Crystal Palace) yesterday. However, that's reflected in a much higher total. Too high. The last three matches between these teams had final scores of 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1, all in favor of Liverpool. Remember, Liverpool has only conceded four goals in five league matches. Only Manchester City, which has allowed three, has given up less. West Ham has conceded a respectable 1.4 gpg, seven through its five games. With neither team easy to score against, just as the three previous meetings did, this one finishes with three or less. *golden boot

I set this O/U line in the low 60s. Washington has the potential to go over this number by itself. I'm not joking. The Huskies scored 56 against Boise State and they've gone over 40 in every game. They're averaging an impressive 614.7 yards of offense per game. The Huskies won't need to go over by themselves though, as Cal will contribute. The Bears scored 31 last week and they scored 58 in their only road game. They're averaging 437+ ypg. Expect some "end of the summer" fireworks, as this turns into a Saturday evening shootout! *total of week

The talent gap between these teams is a lot less than many realize. A few weeks ago, Pittsburgh might have been favored for this game. The Tar Heels are tough but the Panthers are better than their 1-2 record suggests. Speaking of Pittsburgh's 1-2 w/l mark, the Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS The past six times that they faced a team with a losing record. The Panthers gave the Tar Heels all that they could handle each of the past two meetings here. Both went to OT. Both were won by Pitt. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS the past four in the series. With the Tar Heels just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were road favorites in the 9.5-12 range, grab the points with the home underdog Panthers. *ACC GOY

At first glance, this might not seem like the most exciting bout. Both fighters are on losing streaks but this is arguably the highlight of the prelims. Each could really use a victory. At 29 years of age, Fialho can still salvage his career. Means, now 39 years old, cannot say the same. Both prefer to strike. That's going to work to Fialho's advantage. Though he has been knocked out a few times, he's got a lot more power than Means. Though he's absolutely capable of winning a decision, I've got the younger Fialho winning this one by KO/TKO. *UFC Fight Of The Week

The line on Michigan should be higher. The Knights have fared well against lesser competition but this is a massive step up in class, one which they will not be ready for. Rutgers has been favored in its first three games. The Knights are just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 as underdogs though. Once the Wolverines got rolling in last year's game, they outscored Rutgers by a 38-0 margin in the second half. The problem for the Knights is that they are ra running team and they are forced to abandon the run after they fall behind. Back to the line: the Wolverines are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were favored by 21.5 to 24 points. This has been a good role for them. They're also 14-6 ATS their last 20 conference games. Wolverines win big!

Neither team is likely to score more than 1 goal. Frankly, these punchless offenses will be lucky to even get 1. Palace has scored 1 or less in four of its past five matches. Two of those ended in 1-0 scores. Likewise, Fullham has scored 1 or less in four of its past five matches. Two of those also ended with scores of 1-0. I'm calling for either another 1-0 final or a 1-1 draw.

Home field means a lot for both of these squads. The Broncos won 35-13 on the blue turf last year. However, the last time (2021) the teams played here at San Diego, the Aztecs won 27-16. Including those results, SDSU is 6-2 ATS when facing Boise in MWC play. The Broncos are loaded on offense but a little inexperienced on defense. Through three games, they're allowing 30.7 ppg. They got crushed in their only road game this season. In fact, they're only 1-2 overall. The Aztecs 13-5 SU L3 years at home, are 6-1 their last seven against teams with a losing record. Granted, the Broncos aren't a typical losing team. my point is that they haven't yet hit their stride though, their only win coming at home against North Dakota. Going through a tough scheduling stretch, the Aztecs know they need to step up and score an upset. This one should be close. Grab the points!

The Phillies earned a hard-fought 5-4 victory yesterday. The previous day was a 6-5 win over the Braves. They're finding ways to win the close ones and that's going to put the momentum in their corner for this one. It helps that Walker has a 2.66 ERA in four starts against New York. He's also 7-2 (3.70 ERA) in 15 home starts this season. The Phillies won 11 of those games. Megill is 2-5 with a 7.08 ERA in 11 road starts, the Mets going 3-8. He's got an atrocious 2.085 WHIP in those 11 road starts. This game goes to the home team!

Tuesday's win brought the Cubs to 29-18 in divisional action, entering Wednesday. They'll have the edge in Thursday's series finale. Hendrikcks and Oviedo opposed each other back in Sept. 2020, when Oviedo was with St. Louis. Hendricks was great. Oviedo was not. The Cubs won 5-1. Tuesday's loss dropped the Pirates to 27-51 against winning teams, entering Wednesday. With an 8-14 Oviedo hasn't helped. He's got a 2.35 WHIP his last three starts. In those 12.3 innings, he issued 12 walks, while also allowing 17 hits. That many baserunners will catch up to Oviedo against the highly motivated Cubs. The Cubs won 21-0 the last time Hendricks started at home against Pittsburgh. Lay the price with Chicago.

The road team has enjoyed recent success in this series. That will change Thursday night though. The Chanticleers didn't just win last year's game, (at Georgia State) they dominated the Panthers. A 272-78 advantage on the ground and a 268-231 edge through the air. Time of possession was more than 40 mins for Coastal Carolina and less than 20 for Georgia State. This year's Chanticleers are even stronger on defense. Having already played at UCLA, the Chanticleers are battle-tested. They held their own for much of that game (1 point game in 4th quarter) and dominated their next two opponents. The Panthers haven't been tested yet. They've got an inexperienced offensive line and that will catch up with them against their first difficult opponent. Chanticleers are 10-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in September last few years. They're also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on Thursday football. Superior defense, homefield and an advantage in the trenches leads to another big win for Coastal Carolina!

Houston Run-Line (+1.5 runs) Baltimore took the past two games but Houston will respond with a big effort this afternoon. Bradish can be tough but Javier is no slouch either. The Astros are an excellent 19-9 with him on the mound this season. I will mention that Bradish has seen two of his last four starts decided by a single run. The Astros are 120-78, when off a loss, the past few seasons. The last time they were off b2b losses, they bounced back with a 6-2 win. In what should be a close one, grab the extra +1.5 runs.

Seattle is still scrapping for a spot in the postseason while Oakland has been eliminated for a long time.  Probable starter Castillo for the M’s has been on fire lately with a 4-0 record in his last 5 starts and a 1.60 ERA.  Two of his last 5 starts had more than 6 innings of shutout ball.   Probable starter Blackburn for the A’s has a 5.73 ERA and an abysmal 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts, where he has only averaged 3.7 innings pitched. 

Castillo also has a superior bullpen to support him when he comes out after his 6 or so innings. 

Head-to-head this season the Mariners hold a 9-1 edge in their last 10 against the A’s, where the average run differential in the Mariners’ wins is +4.  Lay the runs on this one and take the Mariners.

The Nationals and the White Sox have both been eliminated from the postseason and are starting to play around with their pitching staffs to see what will work for the future.  Probable starter Rutledge for the Nats has one start in the majors to his name and it didn’t go well.  He gave up 7 runs in 3.2 innings of work.   He has bounced around in the minors for 7 teams in the last 4 years with wildly varying degrees of success.  He should be just the remedy the White Sox need to activate their lethargic bats. 

Probable starter Ureno for the White Sox had 5 starts in April, was released by two clubs and now has 2 starts in September.  In his last 5 starts his team has surrendered an average of 9.4 runs.

In their last 7 games the two teams have given up an average total of 11.5 runs/9 innings.  All these numbers point towards that perfect storm of high event baseball.  Make a bowl of popcorn and add up the runs for this over total.

The Saints and Panthers meet up in a key NFC South match up. If last week is anything to go by, the Saints will rely on the arm of Carr to put up points, hopefully more than last week's 16.  For the Panthers, it will be all about the run as newbie QB Young looks like he will need some time to adjust.  Both of these teams faced run-heavy teams in game one.  The Saints held King Henry to 4.3/63 yards. Carolina allowed 130 yds rushing to the Falcons. The Saints pass defense ate up Tannehill and Co. last week.  Facing rookie Bryce Young, who finished with a passer rating of under 50, it will be no contest.  The Panthers allowed Ridder a 111 rating, even when sacking him 4 times.

Carr looked effective if turnover-prone, throwing for 282 passing yards, with a Passer Rating of 96.  He was harried especially in the first half, but put up impressive totals in yards if not points none the less.  The Saints will have to improve on passer protection as Carr was sacked 4 times. He has very good targets this year, including a very speedy rookie in Shaheed.  With Carolina missing a key CB in Horn, the Saints will be able to move the ball in the air effectively.  It is hard to see where Carolina's points will come from on Sunday.  New Orleans gave up zero rush and pass TDs last week, and this is not a strong offense. The favored Saints should win and cover in Prime Time on Monday night.

Burnley’s start to the season has been unkind.  They have surrendered the most goals in the EPL so far this season and have only played 3 games (almost everyone else has played 5).  They are also last in 1st half and 2nd half goals surrendered.  They have had some scheduling bad luck, but still, they are averaging more than 3 goals against per game. 

Notts Forest are unbeaten in their last 4 at home (Brighton, Southampton, Arsenal, Sheffield U.).  They are 8th in goals for in the 1st half and the 2nd half.  2022 signing Awonyi has scored or assisted in each of his last 8 games (9 goals).  They are so direct in their attacking that only West Ham moves the ball upfield at a faster rate. 

All four of the major prediction services predict a Forest win.  Their return to the EPL has been difficult and this one is not going to be any easier as Forest is still flying after their win over Chelsea before the break.  Lay the fraction of a point and play Forest on this one. 

Spoiler alert?  The Guardians swept the Rangers, and the Royals had a series win vs the Astros.  What is in store when the teams meet up in KC?  Likely a Guardians win, if Quantrill continues to pitch as he has since returning from the IL.  He's given up just three runs in his three September starts, with an OP BA of .164.  Meanwhile it has been a lost season for the Royals' Singer. After a missed start for arm fatigue, he has continued to struggle, allowing more than a run an inning and with an OP BA of .383 in his September starts.  Neither bullpen has been effective lately, but the Royals have a dismal record vs right-handers this season.

The Guardians limited Texas to 6 runs in their series, while scoring 23.  The Royals have also put up some runs lately, but they are still giving up more runs than they are scoring.  Compare runs for and against; Cleveland is 5.1/2.9 L7 ; KC is 5.3/5.6.   Let's see if some of that Guardians offense can continue into the Royals series.  Take the Guardians to win on the road .

Tua is the talk of the town after that massive pass attack in Week one.  The Dolphins will face a much tougher defense on Sunday and he is unlikely to get as much time or as little pressure in Week two.  Let's bear in mind that the Dolphins barely won the game, had little running game and the defense really struggled, especially vs the run.  New England's offense including Jones, impressed in week one.  They were unlucky to lose against a tough Eagles team, but as far as Jones' passing game goes, I am still not sold.  Is the Dolphins' defense really as poor as they looked in week one? They were projected to be much improved this year. I believe that adjustments can and will be made, but they are up against Belichik who will have a very considered game plan.  The Dolphins are a small favorite today.  The Patriots' offense does not have the dynamism of the Chargers and with Tua healthy and his fine targets ready, the Dolphins can really score in a hurry.   I believe the Dolphins offense will be very tough to slowdown this early in the season.  Take Miami  to  win and cover.

As dominant as the Rams were in game one vs the Seahawks, their chances of upsetting the 49ers are slim.  Stafford had a field day vs Seattle but was very well protected (0 sacks).  It is highly unlikely that Stafford will have near as much time to operate on Sunday.  The Rams again don't appear to be focusing on the run again this year, and even if they did, SF is very tough on the ground.  The 49ers had 5 sacks last week, and Stafford is not the most mobile of passers.  Purdy, on the other hand, saw a lot of TJ Watt last week, was sacked 3 times, but he still finished with a very solid game, ending with a 111 passer rating.  Purdy has, as we know, great targets,and he put to rest some of the concerns about his success this year. The 49ers ran for 144 yards with McCaffrey leading the way.  He has been a huge thorn in the side of the Rams in past meetings.  The lack of a Rams run game, and the toughness and skill of the 49ers as a complete entity will be more than the Rams can handle.  Look for SF to  give Purdy better protection, and take SF to win and cover.

The Packers appeared the more impressive team in Week One, but played against an arguably weaker opponent and may have key players sitting this week. Both young QBs ended with solid ratings.  Ridder was accurate, but relied heavily on a very short game with just 91 yards passing.  The Falcon's' O line did not support him well, allowing four sacks, but is a good bet for improvement in Game 2.  Love looked very good in the second half, had plenty of time, but completed just 55% of his passes.  He will face much more pressure this week from Atlanta's defense. The Falcons  effectively shut down the Panthers' pass attack, albeit against a rookie QB, last week.

The Falcons' run-centric offense with Allgeier and Robinson was very effective last week (130 yards rushing/ 5 yards per carry)  The Packers weren't great against the run, allowing the Bears 122 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt.  The potential loss or compromise  of Green Bay's RB Jones is very significant.  He was the driving force last week for the Packers and won't easily be replaced, as Dillon was ineffective last week.  This could be a very close game, but Packers' injuries  and the Falcons' new and improved defense will make the difference.  take the Falcons to win and cover.

Arsenal has had a successful, although uninspiring start to this EPL campaign.  They were fortunate to win late vs. Man U, struggled to fend off Palace by one goal, tied Fulham at home and beat Notts Forest by only one.  Along the way they have fought their way to the 2nd best goals against record in the EPL.  When you put that stat next to Everton’s league worst goals for record, it is hard to look past that. 

Everton is looking like a threat to be a relegation club after losing to unimpressive Fulham and Wolves, drawing Sheffield and getting clobbered by Villa.  In their last 6 at home, they have lost 5, scoring 2 and giving up 13.  Even though Arsenal has struggled at Everton historically, this looks like the season they overcome that trend.  Although Everton has created many chances in their games so far (their actual goals is less than their expected goals by more than any other club), they are coming up against a defensive powerhouse that has just started to see Rice and Zinchenko round into form.  And at the other end of the park Saka and Oedegaard have been dominant, and Jesus has 8 goals in 9 games vs. Everton.  Arsenal’s goal creating actions/90 is behind only Brighton and Man City (while Everton’s is tied for last).  Things are going to get worse for Everton before they get better.  Lay the goals and play Arsenal on this one.

Chelsea and Bournemouth have both been unimpressive this season and dating back into the Spring of last season.  In their last encounter in May/23, Chelsea won the day 3-1.  Since then, Chelsea spent millions to get back to what they consider their rightful place.  It will start to pay dividends on Sunday. 

Newcomer Caicedo should play and is starting to make his presence known.  Jackson has had so many shots that against a leaky Bournemouth defense they will finally find their mark.  Fernandez leads the EPL in passes into the final 3rd, passes into the penalty area, progressive passes, through balls and shot creating actions.  Only two clubs have more touches in the penalty area than Chelsea.  Bournemouth has the 6th most saves in the EPL and the 4th most goals conceded so they are vulnerable  All of the above is a perfect storm for Chelsea to finally convert on the plethora of shots that they have produced so far.

Bournemouth’s only win at home in their last 6 was against relegated Leeds, to go with 4 losses and they are 0-2-6 in their last 8 overall in EPL play. 

Chelsea’s record isn’t a whole lot better, but this should be the beginning of a turnaround for the new look Chelsea squad as the pressure is at its peak for them to succeed.  Take Chelsea on this one.

Facing the White Sox in Chicago, the Twins have taken the first two games, outscoring their opponents 20-4.  Will we see three routs in three games?  It is entirely possible, if Lopez continues to pitch as well as he has recently.  The Twins right hander has a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts, striking out 14 in his last appearance.  He has a ton of innings under his belt at this point in the season, but he seems to be handling the work.  Lopez is very good on the road.  A very uneven Toussaint starts for the White Sox.  He lasted only a single inning last time out, allowing 8 runs, but was effective in his three previous starts.  His ERA is much worse when pitching in Chicago. Toussaint will face a hard-hitting squad on Saturday.  The Twins are third in the league over the last two weeks at .266 BA /.824 OPS.  The Sox are enmired in 29th place at the moment at .223/.603. The Twins have really roughed up the Sox'  very lackluster bullpen in the last two games.   Leading 5-0 in games vs the Sox this season, I think you can tack on another win for 6-0.  Take the Twins on the run line to win.

Tennessee is ranked No. 11 in the country at 2-0, while the Florida Gators enter at 1-1. Tennessee is off ht 30-13 win over FCS Opponent Austin Peay, not even coming close to covering the ridiculous 48-point spread.

Florida is also off a blowout win over an FCS Opponent, smashing McNeese State by a score of 49-7 as a 48.5-point favorite.

These teams met last year and the Vols managed the 38-33 shootout win at home, but now it's payback time for the Gators. That said, while I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Tennessee is led by Joe Milton, who has 429 yards passing and 4:0 TD:INT so far. But the Vols looked poor defensively overall to a weak team, allowing 260 passing yards to Austin Peay. 

Florida finished with 327 yards on the ground last week. QB Graham Mertz has two passing TD's so far. The Gators' defense has been great, so far allowing 191 YPG. 

Milton has never lived up to expectations throughout his now six year career, and I think he'll struggle to cover this spread.

Grab the points, the play is Florida.

Two teams that have yet to play to an over collide here on Saturday afternoon, but I think that the offensive floodgates will finally open up here in Week 3.

Iowa State lost 20-13 to Iowa last week, with Rocco Becht finishing with 203 yards and a TD. The Cyclones only allowed 21.2 PPG, last year, but they also won this exact game by a score of 43-10 at home over Ohio last years.

I foresee a similar final combined score here as well.

Ohio is 2-1 after holding on for a 17-10 win at FAU last weekend. The Bobcats offense was ranked in the Top 50 in 2022 with 29.7 PPG. They especially excelled at home, averaging 40 PPG at Peden Stadium. They did score 27 points in their first home game and I think they'll exceed that here.

This number is a little low, the play is the over.

Brighton is part of the new wave and have only lost one game so far (to another up-and-coming club, West Ham).  They have done it with attacking football.  ManU is always expected to do well, especially at home.  So far they have lost two and only beat minnows, Fulham and Wolves by one goal each. 

Usually ManU has a stout defense at home but will be missing Shaw on the back line and Varane is questionable.  But ManU is 6th in the EPL in saves so lots of shots are getting through.  ManU is still without Mount and now will also be missing Antony as well for their attack which was already middle of the pack in shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches.  Sancho has been out of favor as well but may have worked his way back for this game.

Brighton is in sharp contrast to this as they lead the EPL in goals for, shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches.  Brighton is one of the most creative attacking sides in the EPL and they will have a chance to exploit a hurting and vulnerable ManU defence.

Add to this that Brighton has won 3 and tied one of their last 4 head-to-head matches and you have a clincher for choosing Brighton to take the points offered and win the game. 

Palace is 2-2-2 away in their last 6 and Aston Villa is 6-0-0 in their last 6 at home.  In those 6 wins, Villa has outscored their opposition 14-2.  Palace has 6 goals for and 6 goals against in their last 6 away.  That was with Zaha. Now he is gone and Palace is a work in progress against better clubs when it comes to breaking them down.

This season, Palace’s wins have come against low table players Sheffield United and Wolves and against Champions League Plymouth Argyle.  Villa has only lost to Newcastle and Liverpool.  Their wins have been decisive and with lots of goals (an average of 2.66 goals per game).

Three of the major prediction services choose Villa for this one (one of them by two goals).  The best play here is Villa by far.

This is a very different Wolves team than the one that took down Liverpool in Feb/23. Gone are Nunes, Jimenez, Traore, Coady, Neves, Moutinho and Costa.  Cunha is the lone goal scorer among the newcomers.  This season Liverpool is 3-0-1 with 9 goals for and 3 against while Wolves are 1-3-0 with 4 goals for and 8 against.  Wolves are leaky at the back and Liverpool is one of the best attacking clubs in the world. 

Liverpool may be missing 2 or 3 of their first team backline so they could give up a goal but will be too much for Wolves to handle when they attack.  Liverpool dominated the strong attacking Villa with a limited back line before the break so they shouldn’t be troubled with the Wolves’ attack this week. Lay the goals and take Liverpool.

The Twins beat up on the White Sox on Thursday and are now 5-0 against Chicago. Ober likely starts on Friday. He pitched well in the early season but appeared to run out of gas in August. He has been "resting" in the minors, but looked sharp in his only Triple A start. He will face Scholtens, another starter who appears to be running on empty. He has given up 8 runs over 8+ innings in his last two starts, with a .425 OP BA in September. The Twins are 5th in OPS over the last two weeks (.259 BA/.824 OPS). The Sox are just .225/.609 over the same stretch. Better bullpen, better offense, and a refreshed starter; this game is ripe for the picking. Take Minnesota to win.

The Rangers woke up from their slumber about a week ago.  They've since reeled off 6 straight wins, sweeping the Jays. They have also re-found their big bats, hitting .300 BA/.946 OPS/L7.  Texas is a good road team while the Guardians are just .500 at home and have slipped to just 3 wins in 10 games. Cleveland's offense, a problem spot this year, has fallen to .209/.602, and their usually solid bullpen has been sub-par.  The Guardians' starter Giolito has been outright poor since leaving the Cubs.  He did pitch for length in his last start, but his ERA for September climbed to 11.70, and he has allowed 14 HR (not a typo) in his last month and a half.  Jon Gray has pitched very well at times this year, but his starts are shorter lately and his ERA has climbed in September.  The Rangers' pen has been very effective in recent games.
I am a bit surprised at the odds today.  While anything can happen in baseball, this game should be there for the taking for  a Rangers team that is again pressing for the lead in the AL West.  Jump on the Rangers to win.

UTSA won this game by a score of 41-38 in OT last year, barely covering the two-point spread. Here we are a year later and the Roadrunners are much bigger favs, but not nearly big enough in my opinion. 

Army lost 17-13 to Louisiana Monroe, and then followed it up with a 57-0 win over FCS Delaware State. The Black Knights though have more questions than answers still. 

The Roadrunners started the year with a 17-14 loss to Houston, before then responding with the 20-13 win over Texas State in Week 2. 

UTSA starting QB Frank Harris could be sidelined with injury in this one, but even if he is out I still like the home side to not only win this matchup, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Roadrunners looked sharp on defense last week, holding Texas State to just 242 yards of offense. The defense also looked great in the loss to Houston, and I believe the unit will be the difference-maker in this one.

It's "Next Man Up" for the Roadrunners, and I expect everyone else to help shoulder the load as well here.

Lay the points, the play is UTSA.

The Eagles won unconvincingly in week one vs the Patriots.  The Vikings stumbled to a loss against a projected weaker opponent in the Bucs in their first game.  The Vikings put up a ton of passing yards, as usual, but weren't great in the red zone and gave up the ball three times.  They barely attempted a run game, finishing with just 41 yds on 17 attempts.  A one dimensional offense will be an issue against the Eagles' likely formidable pass pressure.  Philadelphia will be down a running back, but do have other options including, of course, Hurts.  The Vikings project to be a much softer defense than the Eagles' Game One opponent.  The Vikings allowed 25 points last week and Hurts and the Eagles will be a large step up from Mayfield's Buccaneer offense.  Cousins is notorious for poor play in the limelight.  Much like last year, the Eagles, after an underwhelming game one, again face  the Vikings at home.  Look for a similar outcome as the Eagles win and cover.

Two very good right-handers meet up today when the D-backs' Kelly faces the Mets' Senga today.  Kelly has been one of the most consistent starters since returning from the IL in July.  He has a 1.42 ERA with 18 K's in his two September starts.  Senga has a 2.82 ERA in his last seven starts.  He faced the Diamondbacks in July, throwing an 8 inning, 1 run gem.  Arizona, at 6-4, has been winning with their pitching.  The offense hasn't managed more than four runs and is averaging less than three in their last six games.  The Mets put up 14 runs in their last two starts against the Diamondbacks, but in their previous five games averaged under three runs.  The Mets have been hitting for power if not for average in the last week; not so the D-backs, who are 25th in the league at .238/.697.  I expect today's game to be low scoring.  Take the Mets and Diamondbacks to stay very low in runs allowed while the starters are in, and hold on for the under.

As good as Josiah Gray was early in the season, he has lost his way in August and September, with just one quality start in his last six appearances.  He has averaged nearly a run an inning, lasting just three or four innings per appearance lately.  He has struggled when pitching on the road this season.  He will face the Pirates' Keller who was crushed in his last start vs Atlanta, but has otherwise been solid, allowing three runs or less in his previous five starts.  Keller is a good bet to bounce back, especially when pitching at home.  The Nationals are just 3-7 in September.  They lost their home part of  back to back series and now face the Pirates at home.  Washington is struggling on offense (29th, .225 BA, .650 OPS) in the last two weeks.  Another short start from Gray will expose their unproductive bullpen.  The Pirates are above .500 in September, and hitting better for average and power.  Look for continued strong work from Keller and a third straight victory from the Pirates.

The Orioles are the first team and the Cards are the other.  Probable starter, lefthander Rom, was in the Orioles system until he was traded to the Cards a few weeks back.  He finally made his major league debut on August 21st and it has been a rough go so far.  His 7.79 ERA, 2.02 WHIP and 0-2 record have revealed a work in progress.  On the other mound, probable starter Gibson for the Orioles has been around the block.  His season has been uneven and eventful but he has held down the fort for the most part.  With the hottest team in the majors at the plate over the last 15 days (1st in avg and OPS) and an impressive runs/9 innings differential of +3.3 over the last 7 days he has all the support he needs.  The Orioles also have a 35-16 record vs. LH starters this season and are 15-4 against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season.  Coming off a loss to these same Cards Tuesday night and you can be sure they will loaded for bear for this one.  Take Orioles on this play.

One team is chasing the leaders in baseball’s toughest division while the other leads the weakest division.  The Rays will be hungry after dropping a close one Tuesday night to the Twins.  Both probable starters have had troubled seasons and are trying to reestablish themselves in their rotations.  Bradley for the Rays was recalled September 3rd.  In his two starts he doesn’t have a decision, but his team won both games and his ERA is a respectable 3.98.  Lefthander Keuchel for the Twins has only been back in the majors since August 6th after being let go in early September/22 by the Rangers.  His starts have been uneven, but he has managed to stick around.  In his last three his ERA is 4.30.

Keuchel will be in tough against the Rays as they have hit lefties hard this season with the 9th best average and the 10th best OPS against LHP.  The Rays are 21-8 against LH starters this season. 

The Rays have a +1 run/ 9 innings differential vs. LH and a +2 run/9 innings differential over their last 7 games.  It should prove to be a long night for Keuchel even though he only averages 4 innings pitched over his last 5 starts.  All of Bradley’s last 5 starts have been 5 innings or longer except for one.  Go with the Rays on this one.

The Dodgers are better than the Padres overall, better at home than the Padres on the road, marginally better at the plate over the last 15 days, have a superior bullpen and their runs/ 9 innings differential is also superior. 

What they don’t have is a superior probable starter for late Tuesday night.  Probable starter Wacha for the Padres is having an outstanding season even though his club has failed to meet expectations.  He has a 2.99 ERA (2.00 over the last 5 games), an 11-3 record (3-1 over the last 5 games) and a 1.17 WHIP.  Lynn, the probable starter for the Dodgers has a 6.06 ERA (10.80 over the last 3 games), a 10-11 record (2-2 over the last 5 games) and a 1.46 WHIP.  Furthermore, Wacha has a 3.65 ERA in his road starts while Lynn has a 5.86 ERA in his home starts. 

Even though the Dodgers bullpen has more quality the game will be over by the time it comes into play and the Padres bullpen is good enough to hold the fort after the starters have left the mound.  Take the runs and the Padres for the win. 

These two teams were two of the first to be eliminated from the post-season and are wallowing down at the bottom of the standings, doing what they can to make it to the end and set themselves up for next season.  Who would have thought we would find such value in a couple of dumpster fire seasons. 

In their last three head-to-head they have totals of 10, 13 and 13.   Tuesday’s probable starters, Singer for the Royals and Cease for the White Sox started that middle 13 total.  In Cease’s last two starts he has totals of 13 and 15.  Cease had an ERA of 8.07 in August and is at 6.05 in September.  Singer has an ERA of 6.43 for his last 5 starts.

The available bullpens both have ERAs north of 5.50. 

The Royals have averaged 5.0 runs against/ 9 innings and the White Sox have averaged 4.5 runs against/9 innings over their last 7 seven games. 

All these numbers add up to totals well over 9 for this game.  Take the over and enjoy an early high event game.

The Cubs are highly favored on Monday, but off a critical series loss to the D-backs, this is a must-win game.  Chicago has had much superior starting pitching lately, including Monday's starter, rookie lefty Jordan Wicks.  Wicks, a former first rounder has been terrific in his first three starts, pitching for at least 5 innings (6.2 last time out), and giving up  just 4 runs total over 16+ innings.  He will face Freedland, another lefty, who is off a decent start, but whose August stats have not been impressive; 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA and a .324 OP BA.  .Rockies are checking in at 29th in offense (.228/.649) while the Cubs are positively rocking it by comparison, way up in the 16th spot.  The runs for and against record tells the story; Chicago is 6.1/3.9 in their last 7 games while the Rockies 4.6/7.1.  I'll take the hot rookie starter and a very motivated Cubs team to win on the road.

The Rangers' free fall in recent weeks (3-6 in Sept.) has been aided by some very poor pitching from starters  (8.22 ERA) and relievers (7.01 ERA) alike.  Today's starter Dunning had a fine first half, but his latest starts have been short and sub-par.  He was shelled in his last game and has allowed five home runs in his last two games.  Bichette, Toronto's recently returned spark plug, has been a particular thorn in his side with  .455/3 HR/5 RBI's in 11 AB's. Jays' starter Bassitt, a fine pickup for the Jays this year, has been especially good in recent starts.  He has a pair of 8 inning appearances allowing just 0 and 1 run in his last two starts.  
The Blue Jays' pen has been one of the best in the league this season.  Now 7-2, The Jays have been beating up on the league's small fry lately.  They are third in offense over the last two weeks, hitting .293 BA, and .866 OPS.  The Rangers' bat have cooled off during their swoon, falling to 16th at .239/.754. The Jays are still in the running for a wildcard spot.  Texas at the moment is on the outside looking in.  I am on the Jays today.  Look for the veteran Bassitt to continue to deliver with the Jays winning at home today.

The Seahawks, off a fine training camp, face the Rams, without Cupp at home.  The Seahawks are a young Carroll-lead team who essentially rebuilt the defense, especially vs the run, their Achilles heel last year. Look for much improved performance on D with another season under the belt for last year's rookies , plus additions including a Bobby Wagner reunite.  Geno Smith impressed last year, especially in the early season.  While I am not as big on Smith as many seem to be, he has fine targets, including a potentially great rookie as a third WR.  With Walker playing and Charbonnet, we could see more of a run game from the Seahawks this season.  The Rams defense is centered on Donald, but after him, it is very much depleted.  This is a team that gave up 41 points to the Broncos in an albeit meaningless preseason game last week.  Stafford, when he played last year, was lost without Cupp.  The Rams' best bet will be to test the new Seahawks run defense, but I don't see them putting up many points on Sunday.  Look for Seattle, at home, to win and cover easily.

The Cardinals in absolute rebuild mode, are without their starting QB, did not add to last year's dismal pass defense, and have 11 rookies on the roster.  Dobbs will likely start under center, so expect a run-focused offense from the Cardinals.  Meanwhile the Commanders have a sold out opener,  3 straight victories in preseason, if you are counting, and a projected very tough defense.  Washington doesn't yet know what they have in Howell but the 2nd year pro is very mobile  at least, and he has great targets, especially if McLaurin is playing.  At their best last year, the Commanders ground out wins with a relentless rush offense, but very little dynamism in the air. Howell, while remaining a question mark,  looks to be an improvement.  The Commanders' defense especially  the pass rush will over-match the Cardinal' shaky offense on Sunday.  Take Washington, with the crowd, to win and cover.

Texas beat Rice 37-10 in its opener last week. Last year the Longhorns went 8-5 overall, including just 2-2 on the road. Texas though is favored to win the Big 12 conference title this season. The Crimson Tide enter 1-0 as well after handling MTSU last week. Alabama is predicted to finish second to Georgia in the SEC this year. That said, Bama was 11-2 last year, including 7-0 at home. This is obviously a huge game, as this is the type of victory that will really help the resume at the end of the year when it comes to the CFP. I just think that Quinn Ewers will have some opportunities to keep his team competitive throughout. The defense will be better this year than last as well with the majority of the unit returning which finished second overall in the Big 12 last year. QB Jalen Milroe has big shoes to fill for the Tide. He had 242 yards and five TD's last week. The defense is once again a strength as well, but there's still some question marks surrounding this year's version of the Tide. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I think this one "comes down to the wire." Grab the points and Texas.

The Aggies are 1-1, while Liberty is 1-0. Last year New Mexico State was 7-6, while the Flames finished 8-5. 

The Aggies are coming off a 58-21 win over Western Illinois, and I think they can carry that momentum over here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a tight battle here in my opinion (they had 438 yards of offense in the second half alone!) Diego Pavia had 317 yards passing and two TD's. 

Liberty managed the 34-24 win over Bowling Green, but I believe it'll have a much harder time containing the visiting side today. QB Kaidon Salter finished with 143 yards passing and two TD's. 

The Flames had five INT's, but everything points to a much more competitive affair here between conference opponents. 

New Mexico State won this game 49-14 last year. I'm not calling for the outright as I said, but I'm definitely grabbing the points!

WMU enters 1-1, as does Syracuse. Cleary, I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do think the Orange will take the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door open for the Broncos to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch.

WMU beat FCS St. Francis 35-17 in its opener, while Syracuse hammered FCS Colgate 65-0. 

I just think the Broncos run game can chew up enough clock here to keep the visitors competitive late. Last week the unit posted 339 yards. QB Jack Salopek had 170 yards and a TD. Jalen Buckley stole the show though with 194 rushing yards. The defense also looked decent in conceding 280 yards. 

Syrcause QB Garrett Schrader had 257 passing yards and four TD's. The defense looked good, but clearly the numbers on both sides of the field are "skewed." 

With a game at Purdue next weekend, followed by Clemson, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Western Michigan.

Two fine starters face each other when the D-backs meet the Cubs in Chicago on Saturday. We may not see much of either bullpen as these two pitchers can throw for length as well as success. Steele has been rock solid this season but especially when pitching at home, where he is 12-2. What has he done lately? Just 14 innings pitched, zero runs allowed and twenty K's in his last two starts. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has been almost as good lately, but if I have to nit-pick, his ERA is about a run worse on the road and he has not been quite as effective in day games. The Cubs have an edge on offense lately, but really, this game is all about the starters. A Wildcard spot could be at stake, and the Cubs, after a pair of losses to the D-backs, with be just a bit hungrier. It is hard to argue with Steele at home. Take the Cubs to win a close one.

Purdue got upset by Fresno State last weekend, and I think it'll struggle again here on the road in this difficult venue. 

Virginia Tech beat ODU 36-17 and in my opinion, the Hokies are going to move to 2-0 after this contest. 

But the Boilermakers were just a complete mess, losing the battle of the clock by 13 minutes, while going just 3 of 12 on third down. QB Hudson Card was inept, averaging just 3.6 yards on 30 attempts.

VT QB Grant Wells had three passing TDs and one running TD last week, and I believe he'll be a difference-maker this weekend. 

Not only do I expect VT to win this game, but I believe it'll do so in blowout fashion.

The Utah Utes are 1-0 after Week 1, while the Baylor Bears are 0-1. 

The Bears were stunned by Texas State, while Utah pulled away for a victory over Miami. 

Utah QB Cameron Rising did not play in last week's 24-11 home win. Bryson Barnes was adequate in filling in, finishing with 159 yards and a TD. The ground game managed only 105 rushing yards.

The defense looked good, and last year the unit allowed 24 points. 

Baylor though will be pushing the pace of this one from the outset after the 42-31 ssetback to Texas State. QB Blake Shapen was inured, meaning that QB Sawyer Robertson will now get the start here. He'll be leaning heavily on the run game and Richard Reese, who averaged 4.9 YPC last season. Baylor's defense was also decent last year, ranked 80th overall in the country by allowing 26.6 PPG. 

I think we'll see a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is Baylor.

The 4-2 Mets are on the road against a tough home side in the Twins. Both have winning records in September and both are hitting well over the last two weeks. While NY is definitely the inferior team this year, they have Senga on the mound on Friday and that counts for a lot. He has eliminated many of the walks that plagued him early, pitches for length (+6 innings /start) and strikes out a ton. He will face Keuchel who has 3 of 5 quality starts since returning in August. When Keuchel is off, as he was last time out, the sky is the limit as far as runs allowed go. Based on past performance, he is a hard pitcher to have much faith in. The Twins strike out more than any other team, and Senga has 22 K's in his last two starts. Minnesota has never faced him before. I like the Mets' chances, especially early, however their bullpen has been equal to the Twins' of late. They haven't been the best road team this year, but a much superior starter will aid the Mets to steal the first game of the series on the road.

The Padres are finally getting their money's worth out of lefty Blake Snell. A Cy Young candidate this season, he is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.20 in his last seven starts. And he's getting decent run support as well. Neither August nor September has been kind to right hander Hunter Brown. He had some very solid starts early in the season, but his ERA has climbed to 6.00 with an OP BA approaching .300 in the last two months. The Astros are not as good at home as one might expect, barely over .500, and are 3-3 in September. They are tops in the league in OPS over the past couple of weeks. The Padres are 4-2 in September, and while a disappointment on offense this year, have crept into the top ten at .265/.766 in the last two weeks. Brown has pitched a lot of innings for a youngster this year, and had been much less effective in Houston. Snell is as dependable at it gets. Take the Padres, a small underdog to win on the road today.

Both teams enter 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS. Illinois is coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo, while Kansas defeated Missouri State 48-17. Illinois was a 7-point favorite, while the Jayhawks were 32.5-point favorites. Illinois had the nation's No. 1 defense last year, but the unit just conceded 28 to Toledo, but we can expect a more solid performance this time around. Illinois had a lot of turnover, but with that first game out of the way, combined with a win, I think they keep the momentum rolling here. Luke Altmyer finished with 211 yards and two TD's. Jalon Daniels sat out last week, but he's expected back in the lineup for the Jayhawks this week, but he'll need time to adjust. Defense is an issue for the Jayhawks, last year they allowed 35.5 PPG, worst in the Big 12. While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

The Chiefs have now won the Super Bowl in two out of the last four years and I think they carry over that momentum here on Opening night. The Lions took a big step forward last year and the expectations could not be higher in Detroit. 

Of these two teams though, it's the Lions that I feel could suffer a big letdown this year. 

There are still plenty of question marks about this Detroit defense, and despite Patrick Mahomes having some new faces in his offense, I just can't see the Chiefs floundering here on Opening Night. In fact, I expect the opposite, as they look to run up the score early and take control of this one from the "get go." 

With back-to-back home games after this vs. Seattle and Atlanta, I say Detroit gets caught looking ahead. 

Lay the points, the play is KC.

The D-backs are  just 4-6, with pitching woes.  Ryne Nelson was just reactivated after a pair of very poor starts in early August sent him back to the minors.  He can struggle in the early innings and gave up far too many HRs in July and August.  He will face a hot Cubs' starter in Assad.  He is off his best and longest outing since converting to starting in August, pitching 8 innings of shutout ball.  Assad held the opposition to a .198 BA last month.  The 6-4 Cubs are holding down a wild card spot at the moment.  They are a good home team and tough against right handers.  Chicago has a very healthy run differential lately, and a solid bullpen.  The D-back as of Wednesday AM are just 2.7/5.4 in runs for and against.  Arizona is very short on starting pitching, hence the Nelson call-up.  They've had too many short outings from their starters, resulting in bullpen overload.  Take Assad and the Cubs to win the opener.  Chicago on the run line at -1.5.

These two clubs have been involved in some high scoring games in September.  The Twins have been in 4 straight games where the total has gone over.  The Guardians are over for 3 of their last 4 games.  And I really mean over.  The Twins last 4 have averaged a total of 16 runs/game.  The Guardians last 4 have averaged a total of 14.5 runs/game. 

Maybe the probable starters for these two teams will be different though.  Not so fast.  In his last nine starts, Ryan for the Twins has seen 8 out of 9 go over.  And Williams for the Guardians has a 6.97 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

In their last 7 games the Twins have averaged 7.6 runs for/ 9 innings, while the Guardians have averaged 6.9 runs against/ 9 innings.  That makes a total that sure looks like an over.  Or you could use the 5.0 runs against/9 innings the Twins have averaged over their last 7 and the 4.7 runs for/9 innings the Guardians have averaged, and you will still get an awfully over looking total.  Take the over and start counting runs.

The Jays’ playoff hopes are hanging on for dear life over this nine-game stretch against bottom feeders.  So far, they are 4-1 and they need this next game (and the next 3 after that). 

Although his last start was good, probable starter Sears for the A’s had an 8.25 ERA and 2.13 WHIP for August.  Probable starter Ryu has been rounding back into form since his return to action August 1st.  His August ERA was 2.25 and his WHIP was 1.00.  And after he finishes his consistent 5 innings his bullpen has a solid roster of next-man-up relievers that have been outstanding for the Jays this season.

At the plate the Jays are in the top fifth of the majors against lefthanders and over the last 15 days in avg. and OPS.  The A’s are in the bottom fifth of the majors in both instances.  They are also 8-22 as a home dawg this season.  Lay the runs and take the Blue Jays on this one.

The Blue Jays’ probable starting pitcher, Bassitt, is really peaking at the right time as the Jays make their final push.  In his last three starts his ERA is down to 2.75 and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.86.  In the other clubhouse, probable starter, Waldichuk, moved back into the rotation July 9th after a stint in the bullpen.  There have been mixed results as he, along with his team have struggled.  In his last three starts his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.38.  His biggest problem is going to be facing a Jays’ batting order that has feasted on LH starters this season with the 3rd best avg. and the 8th best OPS.  In the last 15 days the Jays have continued to be hot as they are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS while the A’s are in the bottom ½ of the majors.  But against RHP the A’s are dead last in the majors.

With a 7-20 record against teams with a winning record in the last ½ of the season and an 8-21 record as a home dawg don’t look for success in this one vs. the Jays.  Lay the runs and go with the Jays.

It is not often that I find all of my key indicators so clearly pointing in one direction.  Probable starter Kremer has been hot for the Orioles in his last 5 starts with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.  Probable starter Detmer for the Angels has not been hot with his lone decision in his last 5 starts coming against the struggling Rangers. 

The available bullpen for the Orioles has a combined 3.11 ERA while the Angels have a 4.76 ERA  available.

This dominance continues at the plate with the Orioles sporting the 5th best avg. and the 9th best OPS over the last 15 days in the majors.  Over the same time frame the Angels have the 21st best avg. and the 13th best OPS.  Against left handed starters the Orioles have the 12th best avg. and the 9th best OPS.  The Angels have the 17th best avg. and 9th best OPS against right handed starters but that is with the now injured Trout and questionable Ohtani who would have made considerable contributions to that result. 

Over the last 7 games the Orioles have averaged 6.1 runs for/ 9 innings and 4.1 runs against / 9 innings while the Angels have averaged 4.6 and 7.1 respectively. 

On top of all that the Orioles are 9-1 when a road fav of -125 to -175.

There is more but you get the idea. Go with the Orioles on the money line. 

Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles' highly touted young right hander has come into his own in August, pitching 6 innings on average, with a  2.64 ERA and a .187 OP BA in five starts.  He will face a real newbie, The Angels' Rosenberg, with just 2 starts under his belt.  He has given up five runs over seven innings with seven walks.  The Orioles are a tough match-up, hitting in the top five, with a .294 BA/.811 OPS.  The Angels , facing a much tougher starter on Monday, are .238/.738  over the same time period. LA was just swept by the A's, outscored 21-9.  A bullpen struggling to a 7.58 ERA in the last 10 games won't help win many games.  Baltimore is an excellent road team, with a terrific bullpen, fighting to stay tops in the AL East.  This really should be the O's game for the taking. I am wagering on the Orioles to win on the Run line at -1.5.

Clemson didn't lose a single ACC game last year, bu it lost non-conference matchups vs. Notre Dame, South Carolina and then it also lost to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. 

Duke was no slouch either though last season, finishing 9-4, capped off with a win over UCF in the Military Bowl. 

Clemson is a powerhouse and Cade Klubnik now has big shoes to fill. He has plenty of weapons though, but I just feel that Duke will be able to keep pace and stay competitive late.

I'm not calling for the outright upset, but with Mike Elko directing the show for Duke, I absolutely don't expect this to be a "cake walk" for the visiting side.

Riley Leonard is an exceptional and versatile QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker here on Monday night.

As stated above, no outright win, but this is a few too many points for Clemson to be covering out of the gate vs. such a talented conference oppoent.

Grab the points, the play is Duke.

The Phillies are just 1-4 in recent games.  They kept the score down in their win on Sunday but allowed at least seven runs in the previous four games.  Taijuan Walker starts on Monday, and while he has been steady this year, he still gives up 3 runs on average while pitching around five innings lately.  His ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher on the road, but he has had great run support this season.  Padres' starter, lefty Rich Hill's starts have been very short lately.  He gave up nearly a run an inning in August, not a good look against a Phillies team that is tops in bops over the last two weeks.  Both offenses are strong; the Phillies are .288/.960 OPS and very good against left handed pitching, while the Padres have climbed to .258/.754 lately.  The Phillies swept the Padres in earlier meetings and all games easily went over.  I expect the same result today.  Both starters appear tired at this stage of the season, Hill especially at the ripe old age of 43.  Take the Phillies and Padres to again go over the the total today.

I like No. 5 LSU to figure out a way to secure the win and cover here on the road at No. 8 Florida State. LSU went 10-4 last year, averaging 34.5 PPG, and allowing just 22.5. 

The Seminoles finished 10-3 and averaged 36.1 PPG, while allowing 20.6. 

This though is actually a revenge game after FSU won 24-23 as a 4-point dog on the road in the first game of the year last season. 

LSU QB Jayden Daniels will prove to be just too much for this still strong FSU defensive unit. 

Brian Kelly plays well a favorite and everything in my opinion points to a comfortable win and cover in this rvenge scenario.

Lay the short points, because the play is LSU.

Giants' veteran Cobb is off a complete game 1 hit monster of a game, but his other August starts weren't as impressive, pitching for five or six innings with an ERA of 5.35 for the month.  He has had much less success on the road this season.  I am also not a fan of backing a pitcher after a complete game.  Cobb faces Padres' Lugo who has been a steady presence this year.  He had one very poor outing early in August, but has been solid since, giving up two or less runs in his last four starts. The Padres are up 2-1 in their home series.  They are outhitting the Giants by a good margin (.293 BA, .812 OPS L7 compared to .226/.661).  While both pens are about equal, I don't think the Giants will get as many innings from their starter on Sunday.  Take the Padres in a third straight home win.

The Rays, challenging for first in their division, have lost 2 close games to the Guardians, after a fine 7-1 run.  They are 18-8 as a road favorite, and hitting well (.277/.820 OPS) in the last two weeks.  Cleveland, often down in the offense stats, has been better than average at .263/.726 in the last week.  Rays' call-up Bradley was effective in the Minors lately, but still has issues with walks and home runs.  Bradley was just 1-4, 7.67 ERA with the  Rays this year,  but Tampa needs help with starters.  Guardians' youngster Curry has now started 5 straight games, with very mixed success.  He threw for just a pair of innings each in his last two starts giving up 9 runs total.  
Tampa especially is very good vs right handers.  The Rays should be ultra-focused today to avoid the sweep and will get their chances against Curry.  Bradley is a bit of a question mark, but did not fare well in the earlier season.  I like the Rays and Guardians to put up some runs today, especially early.  Take the total to go over today.

Villa lost to Newcastle 5-1 to start their season.  Liverpool just beat Newcastle with 10 men.  That alone is pretty convincing stuff.  Add to it that the Reds are 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs. Villa, are unbeaten in their last 13 at home and unbeaten in their last 14 in the EPL and you have the makings of a tough outing at Anfield for Villa. Two of four of the top predictors pick Liverpool in this one while the other two call for a high scoring draw. 

The problem is, Villa have played Liverpool tough at Anfield.  Only ManU and Chelsea have more wins at Anfield.  Watkins has 5 goals vs. Liverpool which is tied for his highest tally against an EPL club.  Villa has averaged 3 goals/game in their last 6.  Liverpool has endured extended periods of serious pressure in all of their EPL matches this season.  Villa has the firepower to take advantage of that especially with van Dijk and Konate out and Alexander-Arnold’s vulnerabilities revealed by being moved to midfield for England due to defensive deficiencies.  Liverpool is vulnerable.  Take the goals on offer for Villa and you win if the draw happens and are covered if Liverpool sneaks out a one goal miracle again.   

I believe Alabama will go up early, but then take the foot off the gas in the second half, and I look for MTSU to then comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch during garbage time. The Crimson Tide were 11-2 last year, while the Blue Raiders were 8-5. MTSU won the the Hawaii Bowl 35-23. It replaces Chase Cunningham under center, but Nick Vattiato is a worthy replacement. MTSU was good against the run, and I expect Alabama to run a lot today. Last year the Tide were 11-2, and they won the Sugar Bowl by beating K-State 45-20. But with only ten starters back from last year's team, it's going to be a transitional period for the Tide. Clearly I'm not calling for the outright upset, but the conditions are definitely correct for a solid underdog cover here in Week 1. Grab the points, the play is MTSU.

The White Sox lost the series opener last night, but won the previous three meetings, including a start featuring today's pitchers.  Right handed veteran Sox pitcher Clevinger has been tough to score on since returning from the IL at the end of July.  He had a 2.70 ERA in August and has allowed just one run or less in 3 of his last 4 appearances.  Tigers' rookie Reese Olson has had some solid starts this season, but his last three have been under five innings, with some control issues and a 5.96 ERA in August.  The first and fourth innings have really been a struggle for him.  The Cubs are hitting very well lately with a .281 BA/.779 OPS over the last two weeks.  That is much better than the Tigers who are .221/.680 in the same time period.  The Sox' problem is relief pitching,  but the Tigers' relievers have been no better in the last ten games.  Take the White Sox to lead early and hold on for the win.

The Cubs and Reds split their double header on Friday, but I like the Cubs' chances in the third and important game on Saturday.  Right handed Javier Assad a reliever-turned-starter, has looked very sharp in his first five starts.  He has a 2.48 ERA and has delivered 6 innings on average in August.  He will face Reds rookie left hander Abbott who was a phenom in his first starts but has had issues in August.  His starts have been poor and short, with a 6.08 ERA and a .302 OP BA.  The Cubs are above .500 on the road, 7-3 in recent games  and solid against lefties.  Their offense is just average lately, but a sight better than the Reds, who are hitting .212/.581 OPS in the last week.  The Cubs are getting fine results from their bullpen with an ERA roughly half of Cincinnati's relievers over the last week.  Both teams had a bullpen day on Friday, and the Cubs are far more likely to get some quality length from Assad on Saturday.  Take Chicago to steal this one on the road from a struggling Reds team.

Last season Nevada went just 2-10, and while the Wolf Pack will assuredly be better this season, I still think they're in way over their heads here on the road in this difficult venue. Brendan Lewis is now the man under center for Nevada, coming over from Colorado, and he doesn't have a lot to work with. The defense was an absolute disaster last year, and it's once again expected to be the weakest point of the team this season. USC is off a rocking chair victory over San Jose State, winning but not covering. But now I for sure like USC to fire on all cylinders here over each drive, and to bury the Wolf Pack over the first three quarters, before making way for the backups and younger kids to get some valuable playing time. QB Caleb Williams had 278 yards and four TD's last week, and I expect him to be a difference-maker this weekend as well. Lay the points.

Fresno State finished 10-4 last year, while Purdue was 8-6. Last year the Boilermakers lost their final two games of the season, iincluding a 63-7 loss to LSU in the Citrus Bowl. Fresno State on the other hand has won nine straight dating back to last season, including a 29-6 win over Washington State in the LA Bowl. Both teams will have to transition, as each has to replace a star QB. Ryan Walters has a more difficult job here taking over at Purdue for Jeff Brohm, hw is now in Louisville. Frenso State has everything in place to pull off the outright, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is Fresno State. 

Arkansas State was 3-9 last year, while Oklahoma was 6-6. The Red Wolves though feel they can take a big step forward this year with JT Shrout under center, who had 1,220 passing yards and 7:8 TD:INT with Colorado last year. I expect him to do much better in an easier conference this season. Last year they scored an average of 25, and allowed 31.4. Oklahoma averaged 32.9, but it conceded 29.6. The defense will once again be a weak point for the Sooners. Dillon Gabriel is a pretty mediocre QB in a tough conference for Oklahoma. And unfortunately for Gabriel, he lost several key offensive pieces to the NFL from last year's unit. Last year Akansas State played both Ohio State and Memphis and covered, and I expect the same here. This is too many points, so the play is indeed on Arkansas State.

Utah State isn't expected to do very well this season, picked to finished eighth in the 2023 preseason Mountain West pools. Last year the Aggies were 6-7 and just 2-4 in road games. Iowa finished 8-5, including 4-3 at home. The Aggies do return QB Cooper Legas, but he lost several key players to last year's decent offensive unit. It'll take a step back here. Last year the defense was terrible due to injury. It's difficult to say where the unit is heading into this season. Cade McNamara is expected to rejuvinate this Hawkeyes offense. Last year he finished with 2,576 passing yards, 15 TD's and six INT's. Look for Iowa to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

Brentford and Bournemouth are heading in different directions these days.  It’s surprising that the sportsbooks still offer such good value for you to make use of.  In their last 5 head-to-head Brentford holds a 4-1-1 advantage.  In their last 19 at home Brentford is 10-2-7.  Bournemouth has no wins in their first three to start this season, is an abysmal 0-6-1 in their last 7 and their only 2 wins in their last 10 EPL games were against now relegated clubs. 

Unsurprisingly 4 of the top predictors pick Brentford to win handily.  Bournemouth’s shortcomings mostly stem from backline problems that make them too easy to break down.  This has led to an average of almost 2 goals against in their last 10 EPL games.  When you add that to there being only 4 EPL clubs with worse stats comparing actual goals to the X-goals model you have a recipe for failure.  It’s not surprising that they have the 2nd worst goals against record in the EPL this season.  They also have the 3rd worst goals created actions/90 min in the EPL so there isn’t a lot out there for possible improved goal production.  This should be a very good play to take Brentford on the money line for this one.

Pittsburgh took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals just a few series ago. They have owned St. Louis this year, winning 7 of 10 to date. Now they'll face the Cards on the road as Keller (1.35 ERA/L3 games) faces Hudson (4.58/L3). After a rough July, Keller has been razor sharp in August , seeing his K's rise and hit totals drop. Hudson was roughed up in Philadelphia last time out but was otherwise effective in August. While the 6-4 Pirates have been average on offense (.239 BA/.708 OPS) in the last two weeks, the Cardinals have been skulking down in the basement at 28th (.209/.621 L2 weeks). Their overall pitching has hit a low of 6.40 ERA/L2 weeks with starter and bullpen issues. Here is a curious stat. The Cards are just 3-16 when playing on Friday. Take Pittsburgh to continue their dominance over St. Louis with a road win today.

The Guardians took 2 of 3 from the Twins, but they will have their hands full against the surging Rays, especially with Glasnow on the mound. He bounced back from his only truly poor start in 10 appearances with a 1 hit 6 run effort against the Yankees. His OP. BA in August was .182, even including that sub-par outing. He will face Cal Quantrill who has had a lost year in 2023. Starting for the first time since the beginning of July, he didn't pitch well in his early starts, and his rehab outings weren't entirely promising. Tampa is 8-2 L10 games, 18-7 as a road favorite, and sporting a very fine 5.3/2.9 runs for and against in their last 7 games. They've climbed back into the top 5 in offense, with a .297/.855 OPS line over the last two weeks. The Guardians are not hitting well at .228/.675 OPS in the same time frame. Both teams have solid pens, but this game could be decided in the early innings. Take the Rays on the run line at - 1.5.

We have an interstate matchup here between two teams that are looking to take a big step forward this season. Both likely will, but I still think this is too many points for Michigan State to cover in Week 1. CMU was 4-8 overall last year. Head coach Jim McElwain once again has a tough non-conference schedule ahead of him this year, with upcoming games vs. No. 13 Notre Dame in Week 3 on the horizon with others. Bert Emmanuel is expected to be the starting QB for the Chips this year, and he's a true dual threat who will be able to exploit this poor MSU defense. The Chips weakness is on the defensive end as well, but they catch a break here in Week 1 facing this unproven MSU offense. The Spartans finished 5-7 and missed out on a bowl game. Noah Kim is the man under center to start, and last year he went 14 of 19 for 174 yards. MSU was ranked 82nd defensively, allowing an average of 237.9 YPG through the air. MSU's terrible defensive play will allow the Chips to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Central Michigan.

Luton Town finally gets a home game in the EPL after a long wait and a chance to earn their first points in their return to the Premiership.  They finally won (against a League 2 club in a nailbiter) but are coming off only 2 days of rest and so some might be suffering the effects.  Unfortunately, they are against the red-hot Hammers who soundly beat the two teams Luton lost to (Brighton and Chelsea).  Luton is a little light on the backline as they have 3 out to injury so they may be hard-pressed to deal with West Ham’s strong counter-attacking form.

West Ham has attackers Bowen and Ward-Prowse in form and has added Kudus who is fresh off a hat-trick in his last game with Ajax.  West Ham has scored the 3rd most goals in the EPL, while Luton town have conceded the most goals (in only two matches).  The Hammers Xgoal- diff/90 is +0.21 while Luton’s is -2.16.  This all adds up to a bleak outlook for the hometown Luton and all the reasons lined up to lay the goals and take West Ham.

I think Nebraka is going to be a lot better this year, and I think that Minnesota is going to take a step back, but here in Week 1, I still think that the Gophers run game and re-worked defensive unit will be too much for Matt Rhule's team to handle down the stretch. QB Jeff Sims tranferred over from Georgia Tech for Nebraska and while he has plenty of talent, that chemistry will for sure take time to develop. The Gophers won this game 20-13 last year, but I'm expecting a bigger final discrepancy this time around. Minnesota does have a star in RB Sean Tyler as well. I see this one getting out of hand late, so lay the points on the Gophers.

The Marlins have only scored more than 2 runs twice in 10 games, and those were  3 and  4 run totals. Monday's game features the same pitchers from just five days ago which resulted in the Nationals' 7-4 win.  Adon was very good for Washington in that game, but that has not always been the case in his short tenure. Braxton Garrett starts for Miami.  He has been a solid starter for Miami this season but has given up 3 runs in each of his last 2 starts.  The Nationals have been on a tear in August and have a somewhat more effective offense than Miami's faltering one.  It is hard to know how Adon will respond after such a fine start, but there are few teams who are less of a threat with the bats than Miami.  The Marlins are a bit of an unexpected favorite, which makes the Nationals a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take The Nats, who are an impressive 4-0 on Adon's starts, to keep this one close.  Washington +1.5

The probable starter for the Athletics, Neal, will be starting his 8th game in his 4th season of very sparse appearances (102 innings total).  His stats are what you’d expect with a 6.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over 6 appearances (1 start) in August.  He is really being thrown to the wolves here against a Mariners team that is 1st in the majors in avg. and 2nd in OPS who have averaged 8 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games.  Over that same stretch the Athletics have averaged 4 runs/ 9 innings.  That’s a pretty big cushion for a point spread play.

We haven’t even mentioned probable starter Miller for the Mariners who won two games vs. Oakland in May and has a respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 5 starts. 

Add to that a Mariners team with a 9-1 record over their last 10 and an 8-2 advantage in their last 10 head-to-head with the Athletics and you have many reasons to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

Probable starter Cease for the White Sox has only averaged 4.1 innings in his last 5 starts.  Over that same stretch his ERA is 8.22 and his WHIP is an abysmal 2.09.  The relievers available for Wednesday have an ERA a full 2 runs higher than the Orioles bullpen.  Although probable starter Gibson has an ERA of 6.75 and WHIP of 1.38 over the same stretch, he has managed a 4-1 record, while Cease has stumbled to a 1-3 record.

Over the last 7 games the White Sox have scored 4.1 runs/9 innings and given up 6.0 runs/9 innings while the Orioles have numbers of 5.3 and 3.0 over the same span.  This is a direct result of the White Sox being in the middle of the pack for avg. and OPS over the last 15 days while the Orioles have been in the top ¼ of the majors over the same time span. 

The White Sox’ August (trade deadline sellers) has seen them slip to a 9-16 record while the Orioles (division leaders) August has seen them achieve a 17-8 record.  Wednesday will see more of the same so the clear play is the Orioles. 

The Yankees have not met expectations this season.  But some parts of their game have been pretty good.  Like their bullpen for instance.  Given this is a bullpen game with probable starter King leading the way they should be in a good spot for this game against the Tigers.  In his two most recent starts King has a 1.80 ERA.  The relievers they have available for this one have a combined 2.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.08. 

The Tigers counter with lefty Skubal who has a 4.67 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Given the Yankees have the 5th best OPS (17th best avg.) vs. LH starters this season his ERA should go up a few points.  Skubal’s available bullpen has had an 8.41 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in their last 3 and the available relievers for this one have a 4.55 ERA.

At the plate the Tigers have struggled against RH starters and are in the bottom ¼ of the majors.  Neither team has been very good at the plate lately but pitching should win the day for the Yankees. 

Probable starter Alcantara is a big intimidating force who can sometimes pitch deep into a game and at others needs to be taken out like everyone else.  His biggest problem has been that the Marlins can’t provide run support.  They have averaged 1.9 run/9 innings over their last 7 and have a 3-7 record over their last 10 to show for it.  The fact that they have been 25th in avg. and 24th in OPS over the last 15 days is what leads to this paucity of scoring.

In the other clubhouse the Rays will counter with probable starter Civales who has had a 1.60 ERA over his last 5 starts and a 3-1 record to go with it.  His club has provided 7.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games and sports the 3rd best avg. and 5th best OPS over the last 15 days, so it is no wonder they are scoring at a high rate.  It’s clear what has led to their 8-2 record over their last 10.

Add to all this the Rays 8-2 head-to-head record in the last 10 vs. the Marlins and you have a solid high value play with the Rays.

The Brewers' veteran lefty Miley has put together a solid August.  He doesn't pitch for length but he's allowed just 8 runs total over 20 innings in 4 starts, keeping the Brewers in every game.  He could even get some run support on Monday as the usually light-hitting Brew Crew are tearing it up on offense to the tune of .270 BA/.816 OPS in the last week.  Compare the Cubs down at the 20th position at .249/.703.  Taillon starts for the Cubs. After a dismal start, he put it all together in July but has regressed in August with three straight sub-par starts and an ERA of 6.08 this month.  The Brewers have the better bullpen.
Milwaukee just swept the Padres, Twins and the Rangers and are a good road team.  They're a small underdog on Monday, but I see them destined to a road win.

While the Padres have struggled, the Cardinals at 2-8 are even worse at the moment.  Wainwright, stuck at 198 wins, just can't seem rescue his season.  His ERA is very high in August, an insult to his success and longevity.  Getting 199 today won't be easy as he will square off against one of the best pitchers this year in Blake Snell.  Snell will give you 6 innings on average, with a 2.77 ERA over his last 7 starts.  He has a .194 OP BA over the last two months.  Even if Wainwright should pitch well, there is every chance the Cards won't deliver on offense.  They are hitting a miserable .175/.543 over the last week, dead last in the MLB, and the bullpen has an ugly 6.82 ERA.  The Padres are just barely surpassing St. Louis on offense, but other than in Sunday's game, they have been getting acceptable relief pitching.  Take the Padres to ruin Wainwright's day.  San Diego on the run line at -1.5.

The Mariners are very hot in August, now earning a share of first in their division.  They crushed the Royals last night and were able to rest their top relievers in that game.  Castillo has pitched well this season but especially at home.  He struggled somewhat vs the Royals just a couple of starts ago giving up 4 runs over 7 innings, but based on past performance is a good candidate to improve on that performance.  He'll face Royals' rookie Marsh, who has pitched effectively in his last appearances, including against the Mariners recently.  He has been limited to about 5 innings in length,  allowing plenty of access to the Royals' faulty bullpen.

KC is 9-15 in August and exceptionally poor vs right-handers.  Their offense had a brief period  in the limelight, but has sunk to .200 BA/.651 OPS over the last two weeks.  Runs for and against tells the tale of these two teams.  The Royals are 3.7/6.1 over their last 7 games; the M's are an amazing 9.0/3.7 , reflecting a .327 BA/1.003 OPS line.  Take the Mariners to win by a solid margin at home. Seattle -1.5

Game two of their away series could go sour for the Cardinals team. The Phillies, who have put themselves in the running for a Wild Card spot and who are seeing the ball very well lately (.305 BA/.988 OPS L7days),  are far out-hitting the Cards at .230/.656.  Nola starts for the Phillies.  He has been sharp when pitching at home with an ERA nearly 2 runs less than in away games.  He was terrific last time out and has allowed just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last 2 home starts.  Drew Rom will start just his second MLB game on Sunday.  Game one did not go at all well, and the Phillies likely won't be handing out any brotherly love.  Relief pitching has been a big plus for the Phillies lately.  At 2.73 ERA over the last ten games the Phillies pen has an ERA of half that of their Cards counterparts.  Runs for and against tell the story of these two teams.  The Phillies are a sharp 7.0/4.6 last seven games.  The Cards are 3.1/7.3.  Take the Phillies on the run line on Sunday.

Burnley has had a tough start to their most recent EPL promotion.  They dominated the Championship last season and were rewarded with an opening match against treble winners Man City.  It didn’t go well.  Then their week 2 match was cancelled because Luton’s pitch wasn’t ready so they had a two week lay-off.  They also lost starting winger Zaroury to a red card so will be without him for 3 weeks and as well, Churlinov and Obafemi are injured.  In the interim they signed three new players who probably won’t start this week.  Now they come up against Villa who have scored 9 goals in their last two games including 3 by the red hot Watkins in their most recent outing. 

Villa are 4-1-1 in their last 6 while Burnley are 2-3-1 in their last 6 .  Villa holds a 2-1 edge in their last 3 at Burnley. 

The Xgoal diff/90 is +0.35 for Villa and -1.6 for Burnley.  Add to this that 3 out of 4 expert predictions pick Villa as the most likely to win, as do the sportsbooks and you have a pretty compelling case to go with Villa on Sunday in this matchup.