Burnley has had a tough start to their most recent EPL promotion.  They dominated the Championship last season and were rewarded with an opening match against treble winners Man City.  It didn’t go well.  Then their week 2 match was cancelled because Luton’s pitch wasn’t ready so they had a two week lay-off.  They also lost starting winger Zaroury to a red card so will be without him for 3 weeks and as well, Churlinov and Obafemi are injured.  In the interim they signed three new players who probably won’t start this week.  Now they come up against Villa who have scored 9 goals in their last two games including 3 by the red hot Watkins in their most recent outing. 

Villa are 4-1-1 in their last 6 while Burnley are 2-3-1 in their last 6 .  Villa holds a 2-1 edge in their last 3 at Burnley. 

The Xgoal diff/90 is +0.35 for Villa and -1.6 for Burnley.  Add to this that 3 out of 4 expert predictions pick Villa as the most likely to win, as do the sportsbooks and you have a pretty compelling case to go with Villa on Sunday in this matchup.

Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done.

The Cubs have split their road series with the Pirates to date, however they have won their previous 6 straight vs Pittsburgh this year.  With a possible wild card spot on the horizon, they will start right- handed reliever turned starter Assad today.  With just 4 starts under his belt this year, he has a 2.86 ERA while delivering around 6 innings per appearance. He will face Pirates rookie Colin Selby who will likely serve as an opener for a Pirates bullpen day.  Selby's numbers have not impressed.  Since activation in August, he has a 7.27 ERA over 8.2 innings with an ugly 1.96 WHIP.  Chicago is 14-8 in August, and while their offense has slipped a bit, they should get some opportunities today vs the Pirates' relievers.  Pittsburgh is below .500 in August and 22nd in the league vs right-handers .  I am wagering on Assad and the Cubs today, who have all the motivation they need down the stretch.  Take Chicago in a road win.

Here we go with another College Football season and I'll look to pick up right where I left off from last season. Jerry Kill and New Mexico State made their second bowl game since 2000 last year. Kill has a knack of turning programs around, and I see more progression this season. Here's a great opponent to hammer on early and work out some stuff. Last year Diego Pavia was a true dual threat QB, while the defense was the biggest surprise, finishing 30th overall in the country. New Mexico State is only ranked 122nd, and UMass is significantly lower than that. Look for the Aggies to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with New Mexico State.

The Big Cats are playing Saturday in Vancouver but only one of them really has any claws.  The Lions almost made a comeback in week 10 vs. the Riders while the Ti-Cats offered up the first win of the season for the lowly Elks.  The Lions are 2-0 after a straight up loss this season and have outscored their opponents 72-28 in those two games.  Both of those games were in Vancouver.

In their last 2 games the Ti-Cats have averaged 210 yds passing/game while the Lions have averaged 388 yds passing/game.  3rd string QB Powell threw a TD pass his first game in relief back on July 13th, but since then he has started 3 games and thrown 3 INTs and no more TD passes. 

There are also some stark contrasts in team stats between the two squads.  The Lions are 3rd in the CFL in avg points/game while the Ti-Cats are 9th in avg points against/game.  The Lions are 2nd in net offence/game while the Ti-Cats are 8th in opposition net offence/game.  The Lions are 1st in avg passing yds/game while the Ti-Cats are 7th in opposition passing yds/game.  I could go on how high the Lions’ defence is in key stats and how low the Ti-Cats’ offence is in the related category, but I won’t.  You get it.  This is a mismatch and you should clearly lay the points and go with the Lions. 

The Jays and Guardians have played each other five times this year and not one of those games has gone over 7 runs. Jays' lefty Riu looks to have his best stuff back since returning from a long stint on the IL.  He has given up 0 runs in his last 3 starts, averaging around 5 innings per appearance.  He shut out the Guardians over 4 innings last time he faced them.  Left- handed rookie Logan Allen has had a fine first season.  He struggled mid-season but looks to have rallied in August, with a 1.96 ERA for the month.  He held Toronto to 1 run over 5 innings just 3 starts ago.  Both teams have solid bullpens lately.  The Guardians are the worst team in the league against lefties, while the Jays are a poor 28th against everyone in the last 2 weeks.  Take Saturday's game to go under the total again.

In their last 5 games Brentford has managed 13 of a possible 15 points.  They have been on fire to start this season as well with the second most goals from the first two weeks and an Xgoal total of 5.9.  Palace has an Xgoal total of 2.9.  For Palace this is a continuation of last season where only two of the relegation sisters scored less than them.  And that was with the now departed Zaha.  Olise was supposed to help remedy this, but he is still injured.  Palace is really up against it as Brentford has an Xgoals against so far of 1.7.  Brentford can score and defend.  Brentford also had the most big chances missed this season with 5 so a regression to the mean should result in even more goals. Palace not only can’t score, they aren’t generating big chances, as they have only missed 2 and have only scored once so far.  Last week when Arsenal was reduced to 10 men, Palace still couldn’t generate much.  Brentford also has the 2nd most shots on target while Palace has the 12th most.  Take Brentford for the win on this one.  

Two solid veterans start face off in the Padres/Brewers game on Friday.  Darvish has been pretty generous with the hits of late, with a .289 OP BA in August and 8 runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. He was much more effective in his previous starts.  Woodruff has just three starts since returning from the IL.  He has held the opposition to a .183 ERA but has given up more runs than expected, allowing 5 home runs in the three starts.
 It is odd to think of the light-hitting Brewers outhitting the Padres but that has been the case in the last two weeks.  The Brewers' pen has been much better with a 2.41 ERA compared to 4.21 fro the Padres in the last 10 games. The 7-3 Brewers have been sharp in August and very good at home this year.  The Padres are poor on the road and 38-48 against right handed pitching.  You won't find a better righty than Woodruff, and really, he is just getting warmed up at this point in his season.  I am on the favorite on Friday.  Take the Brewers to win.

After an absolutely brutal season, Lance Lynn seems to have finally found his form as a Dodger, starting 4 games in August and giving up just 5 runs while holding the opposition to a .189 BA.  He will face Fenway's green monster and Boston's young right hander Cutter Crawford today.  Crawford has also been very solid in August, holding the Yankees to a single hit and run over 6 innings.  Crawford's other August starts have all been of the shorter variety and his ERA in Fenway is nearly 5.95.  The Dodgers are an exceptional 19-3 in August, and a tough 57-30 vs right-handers.  The Red Sox, off a monster victory on Thursday, haven't fared well in interleague action.  Both these teams hit very well, but I am going with Lynn today, who is off a pair of shutout outings,is a serious strikeout artist and will likely pitch longer into the game.  Take the Dodgers to win on the road.

Chelsea and Luton Town have both been playing high event soccer as of late.  Chelsea has given up the first goal in their last 6 EPL matches.  But they do have 3.54 Xgoals so far and Jackson alone has 1.14.  Big signing Caicedo will get his first start alongside the other big signing Mac Allister (his former teammate) and both will benefit from playing with Sterling who has been a real bright spot for Chelsea.  They lead the league in big chances missed so the tide will have to turn here.

Brighton surrendered 4 goals in their first game and also had their woodwork hit 3 times, so they give up chances galore.  They play a very direct game and should also get success against a very fragile backline that will be missing star James for this one.

Chelsea’s Xgoals/90 is 1.96 while Luton’s is 1.46 which gives a total over 3.  Most predictions have Chelsea scoring 3 so Luton only needs to find the net once to get a high total in this one.  Go for the over and enjoy all the high event soccer.

The White Sox are home to the equally hapless A's, starting Thursday. The White Sox are outhitting the A's over the last week by a significant margin; .266/.701 OPS vs .205/.642.  They'll run out RH sometimes-starter rookie Scholtens, who was hit hard in Colorado last time out, but was otherwise effective in his previous three starts.   He'll face  A's lefty Waldichuck who has three straight quality starts under his belt, allowing just 5 runs total over 18 innings.  This one could be close early but the A's are the worst hitting team vs right-handers in the league, while the Sox hit lefties effectively.  Both bullpens are poor and struggling lately.  This one should come down to the superior offense.  Take the Sox who are surprisingly good (10-5) in the rare games they are a home favorite, to win at home.

The Astros have taken games 1 and 2 of their home series vs the Red Sox.  Can they manage the sweep today?  I believe so, and here is why.  Bello starts for the Sox.  After a terrific May and June, he is pitching for less innings and has struggled more often than not in the last two months, with a .312 OP BA.  France has at least ROY consideration after his season for the Astros.  He has been Mr. Consistency and hasn't allowed more than three runs in a game since July 14th.  Since them, he is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA. 

Boston is just 13-21 on the road, just 10-10 in August, and are giving up more runs than they score this month.  Both teams are hitting well, but the Astros have a significant edge in both average and power over the last two weeks.  Should Bello pitch well, the Astros bullpen ERA is roughly half that of the Sox over the last 10 games.  Take Houston to bring out the broom today.

This should be a pitchers’ duel for the first six innings or so between these two veteran hurlers.  Probable starter for the Mets, southpaw Quintana has been very effective since his return from IR and rehab in late July.  His ERA and WHIP were superlative in August, but he still didn’t get his first win until last week.  He has a tough challenge on tap against the Braves who lead the majors in avg. and OPS against LHPs this season.  Even if he survives, his available bullpen won’t be able to hold the fort against a Braves batting order that is 2nd in avg. and 3rd in OPS over the last 15 days. 

Over their last 10 against the Mets the Braves are 7-3 and have an average margin of victory of 5.6 runs in each of those wins. 

To add to the Mets’ challenge, they will be facing veteran Morton who has a 2.93 ERA in August and has a solid bullpen available Wednesday, as well as the aforementioned formidable run support.  Lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one.

Probable starter Kirby has pitched some gems lately for the red-hot Mariners including 9 innings of shutout ball (although he did not get a decision against the Orioles in that one) and two other games where he only allowed 1 run.  All this has been over his last 5 outings.  Over his last 3, his ERA is 2.05 and his WHIP is 0.64.

Probable starter Kopech has averaged 4.2 innings pitched and has an ERA of 8.53 over his last 5 starts and in his last 3 starts his WHIP is 1.98 (and his ERA is 9.88). 

Kopech’s team is cold too.  They have the 14th best avg. and the 25th best OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.  In the other dugout the Mariners have the 3rd best avg. and the 2nd best OPS over the last 15 days.  Not surprisingly the Mariners are 15-4 in August while the White Sox are 6-12.  Over the last 7 games the Mariners avg. 3.8 runs more / 9 innings than the Mariners and allow 4.3 less/ 9 innings than the Mariners.  This will make you very comfortable to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

The 4-6 Angels have been badly bitten by the injury bug, and not just in the pitching department.  They are dead last on offense over the last 2 weeks with a .208/.595 OPS line.  Their runs for/against is an unimpressive 3.4/7.6, inflated especially by poor relief pitching.  The Reds have had better offensive stretches but are still significantly better at .231/.696, and are look far more impressive at 4.0/2.9 in runs for/against.  Giolito has had mixed results since joining the Angels with a short blow-out start followed by a pair of reasonable outings.  His high OP BA in August is a concern.  Reds' starter Ashcraft has been steady if unlucky in the wins department with a 2.86 ERA and .190 OP BA  in August. The Rangers are favored today, but are sub-.500 as a home favorite, and outright poor in August.  The Reds have a real shot at the playoffs this year.  Take the Reds to win on the road.

The Dodgers said goodbye to probable starter for the Guardians, Syndergaard,  in late July.  He has had mixed results for his new team, the Guardians, that make for some weak numbers.  In his last 3 starts he has a 6.19 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP that have led to a 1-2 record.  His time in LA wasn’t much better. 

Rising star. 24-year-old Miller, is the probable starter for the Dodgers.  Lately he has been on fire with a 1.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  On the season he has a deserved 7-2 record. 

The available pitchers from the bullpen have very similar stats for both teams but at the plate there is a big gap between the squads.  In the last 15 days the Dodgers are in the top 3rd of the majors for avg. and OPS while the Guardians are in the bottom 4th for both over the same time period.  For the important OPS stat the Dodgers are 3rd in the majors vs. RHP over the season. 

Lastly the Dodgers have a 17-2 record in August and a 15-5 record vs. teams with a losing record after the all-star break.  The Guardians are 6-12 for August and have a 7-14 record vs. teams with a winning record after the all-star break.  Lay the points and go with Miller and the Dodgers.

The A's were crushed by the Orioles on Sunday, but could bounce back against a much easier match-up in the Royals on Monday.  Sunday's game was a blow-out early, so the A's' best relievers should be available.  Oakland will start Blackburn, likely their most dependable and effective starter, with a 1.93 ERA in August.  He has delivered a quality start more often than not of late and has been good at home.  Royal's reliever Davidson hasn't started this year, so will likely act as the Royals' opener.  He has been hit hard as a reliever in August with a .292 OP BSA and a 5.68 ERA.  The Royals had been hitting well lately but their hot bats have cooled slightly lately.  The A's are just below average on offense in their last 7 games.  It is hard to get excited about either team, but blackburn is definitely a step up from a Royals' bullpen day.   Oakland should take a lead into the late innings, and their pen is as effective as the Royals.  take the A's to win at home.

Arsenal and Palace both came out of game week 1 with all 3 points.  Palace only managed 1 goal against a very weak Sheffield side.  They will be hard pressed to produce anything against a superior defence like Arsenal has.  Arsenal had 10 clean sheets away last season and 39 points away which was the best in the EPL.  Arsenal got up by 2 in the first half against Nottingham Forest and then coasted which made things a bit nervy at the end.  Forest is superior to Sheffield and Arsenal is superior to Palace by extension.

With the addition of Rice in midfield and the maturation of a world class talent like Saka, Palace will have their hands full.

Arsenal also feasted on all the London Derbys last season as they won 10 of 12 including both wins against Palace.  They have won 3 of their last 5 against Palace including 2 wins at Palace. 

Palace has trouble scoring which is shown by the fact they only scored 40 times last season which is less than two of the relegation sisters scored(Leeds and Leicester).  And they did that with Zaha (by far their leading scorer) who has since moved on.  Lay the goal and go with Arsenal on this one. 

The Phillies hammered the Nationals last night, beating up on Washington's bullpen.  The Phillies are leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, and face a right-hander who has an ERA of 7.44 in his last seven starts.  Short starts and lots of earned runs is the line on Williams these days.  He'll square off with the Phillies ace Wheeler, who has been very sound lately.  He beat the Nats in a 6 inning 3 run start just 10 days ago. Wheeler has been more effective on the road this season.  
We are heading into the stretch and every game matters for the Phillies at this point.  The Nats have impressed lately but they are out-classed in starters and out-gunned on offense on Sunday.  Add in decent relief pitching, a rarity for the Phillies in the last few seasons, and you have a recipe for a run line victory.  Take the Phillies at -1 1/2.

Off wins in Week One of the NFLX, the Saints face the Chargers on Sunday.  Both teams had fine offensive numbers in their first games.  The Chargers put up 34 points vs the Rams, including a surprising 200 yards from the run game.  We didn't see any of Justin Herbert and likely won't this week. Stick played well last week and is expected to have the bulk of the time. Rookie Duggan will see time as well.

The Saints managed 26 points vs the Chiefs. Look for Carr and first line receivers to possibly get extra playing time to familiarize Carr with the Saints offense.  New Orleans also allowed 24 points to the Chiefs rookies and hopefuls.    Look for a focus on the New Orleans pass offense,  for Stick and Duggan to duke it out while attempting to prove themselves, and for a continued attempt by the Chargers to establish their run game.  The best bet for this game?  Take the Chargers and Saints to go over the total.

White Sox' right hander Dylan Cease has looked just fine in his last two starts, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings.  It hasn't been an easy season for the White Sox ace, but he has been sharp more often than not lately.  Meanwhile Flexen has struggled to a 7.78 ERA in his last seven starts, including 9 runs in 11 innings pitched in his last two appearance.  Neither team has fared well in August, however the Rockies have crushed the White Sox in the first two games of this series. Really, the teams are about even as far as the numbers go but the White Sox have much the superior starter on Sunday.  It will be "Cease and desist" as far as the Rockies' recent run riot goes.  Look for the White Sox to salvage something from the series with a road win on Sunday

Analysis    These two teams lost in the first game week.  Villa was dismantled by Newcastle and Fulham won with a clean sheet against Everton.  The similarities end there as Villa has dominated Everton over the last while and ended last season strongly.  In their last 7 at home Villa is 7-0 and has only conceded 2 goals.  Everton has trouble scoring as last season they only managed 34 goals in 38 games. 

Villa is 6-0-2 in their last 8 vs. Everton and 4-0 in their last 4 home matches vs. Everton.  In their last 6 head to head Villa has outscored Everton 12-2. 

Both managers have problems with availability of starters but this should not reduce Villa’s superiority.  Pick Villa on this one. 

The Tigers and Guardians split a double-header on Friday, scoring just 5 and 6 runs total in the two games.  Another low scoring game might be in the cards on Saturday with Manning facing the Guardians' rookie phenom Bibee.  Bibee is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last seven games, and has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than 3 runs in his last 10 appearances against tough competition. Manning starts for the Tigers.  He bounced back with a very fine start after 3 straight rough outings.  He has been much better in away games this season.  The Tigers and Guardians are 21st and 28th vs right handers.  Cleveland is poor against anyone of late with a .236/.644 OPS in the last two weeks.  The under in Cleveland's and Detroit's last ten games is a combined 15-5.  I like the under in this game as well.  Look for a very low total in the early going.  Take the Tigers and Guardians to stay under the total .

The Brewers are just 3 games above .500 on the road this year.  They barely held on for a win against the powerhouse Rangers last night in Game One of the road series.  Texas runs out Dane Dunning today.  He has had a fine year for the Rangers, and hasn't faded down the stretch at all.  In his last three starts he has given the Rangers innings (20+), low ERs (5 total) and K's (29).  He is 6-1 at home this year.  Brewers starter Peralta has been equally good lately, although he hasn't been quite as effective when pitching on the road.  It is a different story on offense.  The Brewers, never a strong offensive team, clocked in at .229/.663 OPS in the last two weeks.  The Rangers stood 4th at .256/.802.  Texas is 12-4 in August and 19-13 as a home favorite.  Yesterday aside, they have been getting good results from their relievers.  Given their superior offense, I'm wagering on the Rangers to bounce back and win today.

Two clubs who gained promotion in the 2020’s will face off in one version of the West London Derby Friday.  Brentford is at Fulham as both clubs are eager to get their second straight result.  Brentford hung in against one of the top sides in the Premiership, Tottenham, for a 2-2 draw.  Fulham won 1-0 vs Everton in a game they were seriously outclassed in.  It is a tough call to pick a winner as both lost at home to the other, 3-2, over the past season. 

What is clear though is both clubs are involved in matches with a generous number of goals.  In their last 5 at home Fulham is 4-1 on games over the 2.5 total, while in their last 4 away, Brentford is 3-1 for the over 2.5 total.  Head-to-head these two clubs are 4-0 for the over 2.5.  Yes, there is a clear trend here and it is clear what you should do. 

Off a pair of losses the Orioles will look to rebound on Friday vs the A's.  Right hander Gibson starts, after his worst appearance of the year.  He has been generally very successful this season and allowed three or less runs in his four previous starts while pitching at least six innings per game.  He will face the A's Medina who has started to show some promise after a rough start.  He has been limited to just seven+ runs total in his last two starts.  There in lies the problem. The A's bullpen is the worst in the league this season.  By comparison, the O's have a top ten pen this year.  The A's are 3-7, a poor 8-18 as a home underdog, and league-last against right-handed pitching.  I like the Orioles to get back on track.  The only concern is Gibson's poor last outing.  In the past he has been up and down.  Take the Orioles, a favorite to win.

The Stamps are running out of runway here to salvage their season.  They need to get back on track but are in the middle of a string of games against the Lions, Argos and Bombers; the elite of the CFL.  It isn’t going to happen this week.  QB Maier is just too inconsistent.  His last loss to the Bombers he only got 122 yards passing.  In 4 of his last 9 games he has less than 170 yards passing.  That doesn’t come close to cutting it in the pass happy CFL.  He leads the CFL in INTs thrown and has the lowest passer efficiency rating among qualified QBs at 78.7.  This is bad news against a Bombers’ “D” that has the 2nd best opponents’ pass efficiency rating (77.9) and opponents’ avg yards/pass (7.4). 

On the other side of the ball the Bombers lead the CFL in passing yards and are 2nd in rushing yards.  Calgary’s “D” is in the bottom half of the CFL in both for opponents rushing and passing categories.

The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 after an ATS loss while the Stamps are 1-5 in their last 6 ATS vs. the West.  The spread is less because Brown will start in place of Collaros but Brown has too many weapons at his disposal.  Lay the points and take the Bombers.

Two of August's top producing teams square off in game one of the Astros home series vs Seattle.  JP France, an unlikely but possible ROY, has allowed 3 or less runs in 11 of his last 12 appearances winning five straight games.  He will face Seattle's rookie righty Miller, who has been exceptional at times this season, but with the odd very poor outing (two in his last four starts) thrown in.  He has been difficult to score on in his last two starts with a pair of five inning one run outings.  His ERA is nearly two runs higher when pitching on the road.  Both teams have top ten offenses in recent weeks , although the Astros have the advantage; .297/.879 OPS vs Seattle's .265/824 OPS.  The Mariners have been getting their usual steady relief pitching, but the Astro's bullpen has been superb of late.  Houston is tough to beat at home, probably a difference maker on Friday.  Take the Astros to win a close one.

This is the first of what should prove to be many relegation battles this season.  Nottingham avoided relegation last year with a strong finish as they improved as the season went on.  With almost a completely new squad to start last season it took them awhile to gel under manager Cooper but after only a few key additions this summer they looked threatening at times vs. Arsenal last week.  The continuity form last year should be helpful.  The addition of American GK Turner was a shrewd move and is starting to pay dividends already as he made 7 saves vs a tough opponent.  Forest lost only 5 of 19 at home last year and won their last three at home including victories over Arsenal and Brighton. 

Sheffield finished 2nd in the Championship to Burnley a full 10 points back.  They lost leading scorer Ndiage over the summer and haven’t replaced him adequately.  The 1-0 loss to Palace flattered them as they were never threatening.  They have a long list of injuries which highlights their need for more quality additions to the squad.  This should be a struggle in the early season for Sheffield which will play well for Forest at home.  Take Forest all they way. 

With D-backs ace right-hander Gallen pitching very well lately, including six innings of shutout ball vs today's opponent, it would be tough to wager against him.  It was his second shutout appearance in three starts.  Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 after a woeful start to August.  They are tough on lefties this year, and will face a struggling one today.  Hill, who has had some good moments this year, has faltered as a Padre.  Perhaps his age is showing as he has an 8.72 ERA over his last three games, with just one start of his last four reaching five innings.  The Padres are 3-7, still aren't hitting up to expectations. (.251/.708 OPS L14 days), and aren't hitting right-handers well.  The Arizona offense has surged to a .281/.845 line, good for fifth in the league over the last week.  While I don't like the D-backs bullpen, Gallen gives them  far more quality innings than Hill is likely to.  Take the D-backs to take this one on the road.

I’m not going to make the mistake I made after the Bombers’ last bye week and their subsequent annihilation of the Lions, nor the scare the Elks, off their bye week, threw into the Bombers. The Ti-Cats are coming off a bye week and with a new OC in successful CFL coach Milanovich having two weeks to prepare, the Elks will be in trouble.  It is also instructive to note that the Ti-Cats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when coming off a bye week and the Elks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Ti-Cats.

It won’t help that the Elks will be without their leader on defence, DB Purifoy, as well as starting DE Brown.   

Both teams are at or near the bottom of the league in most important offensive and defensive stats so we aren’t expecting a Picasso here but should see two rejuvenated offenses as the Elks will go into their second game with their new OC, Jackson, as well.  Both teams will not start the QB they started the season with.  Lay the points and go with the Ti-Cats coming off their bye week. 

It has finally started to happen.  The CFL’s offences are catching up to the defences.  In week 10 the games averaged 60 points/game (second highest average total of the season).  Passing led to 17 TDs with only 7 INTs.  Both of these teams have new OCs with lots of experience sorting out CFL offensive opportunities and limitations.  The Elks and their new starting QB Ford threw a real scare into the Bombers last week, jumping out to a 22-0 lead early.  And this week WR Lewis, last year’s outstanding player in the East, will return to add another threat to the Elks’ passing game. 

The Ti-Cats hired Grey Cup winning coach Milanovich as their OC and he has had two weeks (coming off a bye) to prepare his new team.  He was a QB coach for the NFL Colts so he should help QB Powell improve his production.

Between two rejuvenated offences and two low rated defences this should be a high scoring affair.  Take the over and enjoy the fireworks. 

The Mets have won 3 of 4 games, an improvement since their post-deadline collapse.  Quintana has pitched well for them lately, giving up just 1 and 2 runs over 6 innings per to stiff competition in his last two starts.  He' has been very unlucky or unsupported since his return in mid-July.  He will face Adam Wainwright , who is definitely showing his age.  The Cardinals have won just one of his last six starts, and he has gone over three innings just a single  time.  The Cards' pen is better than the Mets', but there will be a bunch of innings to cover if Wainwright's start goes south again.  St. Louis had the top OPS in baseball last week while the Mets are improving at least, hitting .747 OPS/ L7 days.  As bad as the Mets' relievers have been I still like their chances on Thursday.  Look for NY to get ahead early and hold on for the win.

Probable pitcher Abbott for the Reds seems to be a charm for his team as they have a 10-3 record when he starts.  Probable starter Syndergaard for the Guardians seems to have the opposite effect on his team (which was the Dodgers before the trade deadline) as his team’s record is 5-10 when he starts.  Syndergaard was also shelled the last game he pitched against the Reds (for the Dodgers) as he gave up 6 ERs over 3 innings.

Add to this the fact that the Guardians are 29th in avg. and 30th (dead last) in the majors against LHP.  The Reds are in the top half of the majors vs RHP. 

And don’t forget, the Guardians are 6-13 against teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.  The Reds are 8-5 against teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.  Lay the points and take the high value bet for the Reds in this one.

These two teams look way different after the trade deadline.  Probable pitcher Oviedo is on the Pirates because of the trade deadline and as of late has been very effective.  In his last 3 starts he has a 3.22 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP on a struggling Pirates team.  In his last start against the Mets he lost but this is a very different Mets team than the one he lost to.   Megill has had a whopping 9.00 ERA since his post trade deadline recall from the minors. 

Available pitchers from the Pirates bullpen have an ERA almost a full run lower than the available pitchers in the Mets bullpen.

In their last 7 the Pirates average more than a run more for/9 innings than the Mets and 0.8 runs less against/9 innings than the Mets.

With Oviedo rounding into form since the end of July and Megill struggling to find his form since his recall August 5th,  this is a fine pick to go with the Pirates.

Probable pitcher Severino for the Yankees recently called himself the worst pitcher in baseball.  That hasn’t been the case in the recent past as he was an all-star once.  But lately with a 13.50 ERA so far in August and an 11.22 ERA in July he has been horrendous.  Add in a 2.15 WHIP over his last 3 and you have a recipe for lots of runs.  Probable starter Elder for the Braves started out strong but has faltered as of late.  His August ERA is 9.64 so far and his July ERA was 5.96.  In his last 3 starts his WHIP has been 1.347 and his ERA has been 6.06.

At the plate the Braves lead the majors over the last 15 days and all season vs. RHP in avg. and OPS.  The Yankees have been middle of the pack over the last 15 days but have some power at the plate that could cause Elder some grief.  In their last 7 games the Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs for/9 innings and 5.6 runs against/9 innings which in and of itself could lead to a formidable total but when you look at the Braves 8.4 runs for/9 innings and 4.0 runs against/9 innings in their last 7, this could get ugly for the pitchers. 

The Yankees have been 6-4 in their last 10 for overs and the Braves have been 8-2 for overs in their last 10.  This could be a perfect storm for a runaway total.

Both probable starters for the Yankees and Braves have struggled as of late.  Severino for the Yankees has been in a funk beyond compare though and it makes Elder’s recent dip look palatable.  A 13.05 ERA for August backs onto an 11.22 ERA for July and his WHIP over his last 3 starts is north of 2.00.  Elder has had a tough August too but his ERA over his last 3 starts is almost half the size of Severino’s.

Add to this the majors’ leading avg. and OPS over the last 15 days compiled by the Braves and their mastery of RHP all season where again they lead the majors in avg. and OPS and you have the makings of an ugly outing for Severino and the Yankees.  The Yankees are 29th in avg. and 24th in OPS vs. RHP this year (although they have been middle of the pack overall over the last 15 days).

In terms of runs for/9 innings the Braves have averaged almost double what the Yankees have.  It’s a pretty confident play to lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one. 

You won't get a Rays/Glasnow start at a better price than this line, especially considering it is most likely a bullpen day for the Giants.  Glasnow has been super sharp lately, allowing just 4 runs in 21 innings in his last three starts.  He was AL Pitcher of the Month in July.  The Giants' Walker is a solid reliever but hasn't pitched more than 3 innings this year, so it is over to a struggling bullpen after that. The Giants broke out for a win on Sunday, on the back of an 8 inning start by Webb, but are presently 29th in the league in OPS, and have a tough time putting wins together. The Rays are hitting reasonably well, and are solid off a loss.  Glasnow has averaged less than 2 runs an outing in his last 7 starts.  Take The Rays, 16-6 as a road favorite, to win today.

The 3-7 Mets salvaged a single win in the Braves series, but gave up a massive 33 runs in the three games.  Pittsburgh is 5-5 L10, but has seen the over in seven of ten games, averaging six runs-allowed in their last seven games.  Carrasco was surprisingly good in his last start (two runs over five innings), but based on his record this year, he is no one to rely on for a quality start.  His ERA in July was 7.79 and he gave up a dozen runs in his previous eight plus innings.  He has been especially poor when pitching at home this year.  He'll face rookie right-hander Priester, who has struggled in his first season.  None of his starts have gone over five innings, and he is hovering around a run an inning for the season.  The Mets are struggling with the bats, scoring four runs or less in nine of ten games, but they will get their chances vs Priester.  The Pirates were 10th in OPS over the last week and will have the chance to run up the score if Carrasco reverts to his season's form.  The Mets' bullpen is a disaster lately, the Pirates', merely poor.  Take the Mets and Pirates to go over the total.

It’s a new world in the EPL this season with Chelsea and Liverpool not making the Champions League and Manchester United moving back into the EPL top 4.  Last season United had the lowest goals against record in the EPL at home and only lost one game at Old Trafford.  Rashford was second in goals to the incomparable Haaland and will look to continue against a Wolves team that is in disarray. 

The Wolves only made two additions but lost Jimenez, Costa, Neves, Traore and Moutinho.  Those holes have not been filled.  Their manager from last year cleaned out his office 4 days ago and new skipper O’Neil has had to sort out his new squad in short order.  In their last 6 matches the Wolves surrendered 14 goals and only scored 4.  Against a stingy United defence this will not improve. The Wolves also failed to win any of their final 8 road games.  All in all, you should lay the goals and go with United on this one.   

The 9-1 Rangers have it all at the moment, with a fine 5.3/2.6 runs for and against line.  They have allowed 3 or less runs in 9 of their last 10 games, and have the bullpen operating on all cylinders lately.  The Giants have lost 6 of 7 games including the last two to the Rangers.  Their offense sunk to a .201 BA/ .590 OPS line the last week.  They are favored today but only because Webb is on the mound.  Webb has been very consistent and usually delivers solid inning numbers, with great control.  The Giants' bullpen has not been as sharp of late, and they are hitting right-handed pitching to the tune of just .177 in the last 10 days.  Dunning starts for the Rangers.  Off a very successful season, his ERA crept up to 5.06 in the month of July, but he has recovered in August, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings with a .167 OP BA.

As good as Webb can be, you still have to score runs to win games.  Dunning has been an effective starter; one whom the Giants have never faced.  With the Rangers having the much superior offense and the more productive pen  in recent games., I still like the underdog to come through today.  Take Texas to win and finish the sweep.

After a run-fest yesterday in the Rangers/Giants match up on Saturday, It could be a low scoring game today.  Webb, the Giants' most dependable starter, has been consistent this year, pitching for length with low runs allowed and very good control.  Dunning slipped a bit in July but his last 2 starts have been fine, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings.  The Giants are really struggling to produce runs, batting just .210 with a .590 OPS in the last week.  The Rangers are getting excellent results from their bullpen lately.  They are a formidable offensive team, but like anyone else will struggle against a fine starter.  Look for length and quality from today's starters, and a total similar to Game One of the series.  Play the Under today!

After a pair of high scoring games, I expect Sunday's Guardians/Rays  match-up to be a much lower scoring affair.  The starters, Bibee and Eflin have been especially tough to score on in recent action.  Bibee is 4-0 with and ERA of 1.70 in his last 7 games.  What has he done lately?  Only shut out the Jays over 7 innings pitched.  Eflin has been terrific in his two August starts, allowing just a single run over 13 innings.  He is 10-2, with an ERA of 2.49 in home starts this season and has yet to walk anyone this month.  Neither team has faced the opposing starter to date.  Tampa (.274/.810 OPS) is a top 7 offense over the last two weeks, however the Guardians are a low-flying 29th at .218/.594 OPS.  Both teams are known for their bullpens, but neither relief corps is performing especially well.   I expect a very low scoring game in the early going.  Both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings.  Look for the bullpens to hang on.  Take the Guardians and Rays to go under the total.

Chelsea and Liverpool both disappointed last season.  But they ended their seasons in much different fashions.  Chelsea was humiliated in the last stretch with one win in their L 11 while Liverpool found their footing and were undefeated in their final 11.  The Reds paid for not rejuvenating their midfield in the first half of last season but have made amends this year with the departures of Henderson and Fabinho and the addition of World Cup champion Mac Allister and Szoboszlai.  There were goals galore at both ends of the pitch for the Reds in preseason so expect a dynamic side that will power past the goalless draws the last 4 times these squads met. 

Newcomers Fofana and Nkunku are out for Chelsea but new manager Pochettino had the Blues winning in preseason. 

But Liverpool has too much firepower and too much recent success for Chelsea to turn things around for this one.  The Reds also have Klopp who will sort out how to make use of his new additions quickly.  The Blues should be better but won’t be able to pull off the challenge before them in their opener.  Take the Reds in this one.

The Royals hammered the Cardinals on Friday.  We will likely see less runs  in Saturday's game with two solidly performing lefties squaring off.  Matz has been very consistent in his last appearances, allowing just 2 runs in 4 starts while averaging 6 innings per appearance.  Royals' rookie Ragans has similar numbers since returning to line up, also averaging 6 innings per appearance, and giving up just a pair of runs in his last three starts.  He has 19 K's in his last two games!  The Royals cashing 12 runs on Friday is not such a surprise; they are second in both BA (.295) and OPS (.851) over the last two weeks.  The Cards have been pretty average  (14th) in the same time frame.  Both teams are hovering around .500 in August.  The Cards are a heavy favorite, making the run line look very appealing considering considering Ragans' and the Royals offensive performances.  Take KC at +1 1/2.

After a 20 run slug-fest on Friday, I expect Saturday's Cards/Royals total to be far less.  Both left-handed starters are on fine runs.  Matz has been very good since returning, pitching for length and allowing just a pair of runs in his last 4 starts.  Royals rookie Ragans has been equally impressive, giving up just 2 runs in his last three outings and striking out 19(!) in his last two appearances.  Neither bullpen impressed on Friday, but the game was a blow-out early, so both teams' best relievers should be available on Saturday. The Royals are hitting well but generally struggle vs left-handed pitching.  The Cardinals are very average at the moment on offense.  I think the total is slightly inflated after Friday's 12-8 outcome.  Take the total to go under on Saturday.

The Tigers continued to struggle against the Red Sox in game one of their away series. Their right -hander Manning has also struggled lately, with far too many hits and over a run an inning allowed in his last three starts.  Opposing batters are hitting him at a .327 clip in August.  Bello, the Sox' young right-hander starts for today.  Bello saw his ERA creep up in July after a long stretch of quality starts.  He bounced back last time out with a fine 6+ inning effort, allowing just a single run.  He has consistently pitched better at Fenway than away this season.   Boston is tough to beat at home and tougher on right handed pitching than Detroit (.260 vs .231 BA.)  The Sox are 12-5 vs. sub .500 teams in the second half.  I like Bello's chances today.  Detroit has never faced the youngster. Look for Boston to win their fourth straight game.  Take the Sox on the run line at -1 1/2.

Luton Town is away to Brighton in their first ever game in the Premiership.  They are in tough as Brighton has proven to be an offensive force at home with a 6-0 result over Wolves, a 3-0 result over Liverpool and a 4-0 domination of Chelsea at Amex Stadium in Brighton.  Brighton just has too much attacking power.  Even with the loss of Mac Alllilster and pending loss of Caicedo, their pickups of Milner, Dahoud and Pedro is going to keep coach De Zerbi awash in attacking possibilities.  Returnees Estupinan on the back line, Gross in the middle of the park and Welbeck up front should help stabilize recent arrivals.

Luton will not have centre backs Burke and Osho available as well as midfielders Clark and Potts.  This should open space for Brighton’s attacking style.  It should be noted that Brighton only lost 5 at home all last year and only 1 vs teams in the bottom of the table.  Luton finished more than 10 points behind Championship leader Burnley and then only advanced after PKs in the qualifying game.  Chances are they will be in the bottom half of the table. 

Luton is likely to work to be difficult to break down but Brighton is just too strong attacking.  Lay the points and take Brighton. 

The Roughriders have a short turnaround and have to travel for this one.  With an inexperienced QB, a banged up D-line, O-line and WR corps this will be difficult for the Riders to be prepared for.  It is also important to note that teams off only 4 days rest this season are 2-7 straight up and ATS.  The Riders are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams with a winning record.   

Other things are more even as they are side by side in most team defensive categories in the CFL team stats rankings except for opposition offensive TDs, 1st downs allowed and avg. first down yards allowed, where the Als are 1st or 2nd and the Riders are 4th or 6th. It is hard to compare offensive team stats as most of the Riders’ were achieved under the auspices of injured first string QB Harris and QB Fajardo is a game time decision for the Als.

Although the Als are 2nd to last in terms of sacks allowed they have only allowed 3 in their last two outings.  Last week the Als also had four OLs ranked in the top ten for performance against the pass rush by PFF analysis.    The Als are also last in sacks made but the addition of last year’s outstanding western defensive player DL Lemon two games ago started to pay dividends last week as he made 2 sacks, an INT and was the 4th rated DL by PFF analysis. 

Taking this all together makes this a fine play to lay the points and go with the Als.   

The Tigers have won three straight with a pair of shutouts in the mix.  They will face the Red Sox where they have had very little success in the past.  However, with the Sox sporting an ugly 3.4/6.4 runs for and against and a bullpen ERA of over 8.00 in their last ten games, I like the Tigers' chances on Friday.  Chris Sale returns from the IL for Boston.  With just two short rehab appearances to date, I doubt we will see any length at all from Sale. Do not expect much support from the relievers.  Adding to their woes, the Sox are not hitting well at all recently.  In fact the Tigers, not known for offense, are outhitting them, especially for average.  Tigers' lefty Skubal looked very sharp against the Rays, pitching into the 6th and allowing zero ER's.  While he has had a couple of rough outings since his return from the IL, four of his six appearances have been shutouts.  The Tigers' bullpen has been performing well in recent games.  Boston is a firm favorite today, but I am wagering on the Tigers to at least keep this one close.  Take Detroit on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Pirates, buoyed by a series spit with the Braves and a series win over the Brewers, are home to the 2 -8 Reds on Friday.  Two good young pitchers start.  Abbott, the Reds' lefty has impressed this season.  He has pitched 70 innings in just two months and it might be starting to show, as his last two appearances have been poor, allowing 10 runs in just 9 innings pitched.  Oviedo has been the reverse.  He has a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just 2 runs in his last 20 innings pitched.  He has had good support from the Pirates' pen in his last starts, winning all three games.  It is the Reds' bullpen that has really struggled lately, accumulating a massive 7.65 ERA L10.  The Pirates surprisingly have the edge on offense as well in recent action; .246 BA/.794 OPS compared to .203/.654 OPS.  The Reds are a streaky team and it appears that a bit of the wind has gone out of their young sails of late.  I like the Pirates, an underdog, to win this game outright.

Treble winner Man City visits newly promoted Championship winner Burnley for the EPL opener.  Their last meeting in the FA Cup quarterfinals in March was a humbling return for Burnley manager and longtime Man City star Kompany as they were dominated 6-0.  Burnley still has no answer on the back end for Haaland and Alvarez, who scored 3 and 2 times each in that game and are likely starters for this rematch.  City used a rotation squad for that game and might for this fixture as well, as the Super Cup match against Sevilla is on the 16th.  That should not prevent Guardiola’s side from continuing their dominant run of form against the Clarets.  Many City is 15-1-0 in their last 16 against Burnley.  In their last 11 against Burnley Man City has scored five or more goals five times, outscoring them 40-1 over that span.  Burnley’s last goal against City was in Dec. 2019.

Even with some solid additions that should prevent relegation, Burnley doesn’t match up well against City.  Last season’s leading scorer Tella is back at Southhampton and his replacement Amdouni may take a while to gel with his new squad.

Kovacic should ably replace Gundogan in the City midfield and Ake and De Bruyne should be available for selection.

Laying the goals and going with City is a solid choice to get you into the new season on the right foot (pun intended).

These are two teams from different planets.  Bombers are coming off a thrashing of the Lions while the Elks were shutout by the Lions the week before their bye.  The Bombers are 6-2 while the Elks are 0-8 and on a 21-game home losing streak.  It makes for a wild money line and lots of points for the spread lines.   

The Bombers are first in seven offensive categories while the Elks are last in 5 different defensive categories.   There is no need to discuss the Elks’ sorry offensive stats rankings.  They are starting 3rd string QB, Canadian Ford, hoping to jump start an offense coming off its second shutout of the season.  Given that the Bombers are 1st in sacks made and the Elks are 6th in sacks allowed it could be a long night for Ford. 

Taking a close look at recent point spread history for these teams gives credence to the expectation of the Bombers to lay the points as high as they will be.  The Bombers are 5-3 ATS in their L8 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Elks.  In their last 3 vs. the Elks they have won by at least 14 points.  The Elks, having lost 21 in a row at home are 3-18 ATS in that stretch, are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 this season and 0-4 ATS after a bye week.  None of this bodes well for the Elks so it is clear we should lay the points and take the Bombers on this one.   

The probable starters for Thursday’s early game are relative youngsters with limited major league experience.  Elder has had considerable success for the Braves (8-3 record), while Falter is just getting started with the Pirates after a tough start to the year with the Phillies.  Elder blew his last start against the Cubs but the two before that were solid outings with 1 and 2 ERs allowed.  In Falter’s lone start for the Pirates, he pitched a respectable 4 innings and allowed only 1 ER.

Both bullpens have solid relievers available to be called upon with Atlanta’s available relief pitchers owning a slightly lower ERA.

Where these two teams are really separated is at the plate.   Atlanta has led the majors in avg. and OPS for most of the season and over the last 15 days they are still 1st in both avg. and OPS.  They also do well against LH starters with the 2nd best avg and best OPS in the mojors.  The Pirates don’t measure up here as they are in the bottom quarter of the league vs. RH starters and bottom half of the majors over the last 15 days in both avg and OPS.  Atlanta’s record vs. LH starters is 14-6 while the Pirates record vs. RH starters is 35-44.  The Braves also sport a 25-13 record for day games while the Pirates are a mediocre 21-27 for day games. 

To further cement this call on the spread the Braves have averaged 7 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Pirates have only averaged 4.4 runs/9 innings.  That difference alone should be more than enough to justify laying the points and going with the Braves.

The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak.  Different directions.  The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers.  They don’t match up here either.  But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately.  Both bullpens are solid too.  And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1.  In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under.  All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game.  Go with the under for these two for a solid play.

Two teams struggling to win (both are 1-4 over their last 5) and struggling at the plate over the last 15 are coming up against a couple of interesting probable starters.  Cueto is only five starts into his return from a long layoff but has shown some mastery with a tiny 0.95 WHIP.  Although this hasn’t translated into wins for him he has pitched a 1 and 2 ER outing.  Ashcraft, the ace of the Reds staff, has been very solid as of late (a 1.89 ERA in July) and an ERA of 2.32 over his last 5 starts. 

Both teams are in the bottom half of the majors in avg. and OPS over the last 15 days.  The Marlins have averaged 3.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Reds have averaged 4.6 run/9 innings over the same stretch.

All of the above combined with the Marlins 1-5 record and the Reds 0-6 record in unders over their last 6 games and you have a solid value pick for Wednesday’s game between these two underachievers.  Take the under and enjoy this early win to start your Wednesday plays.

The Cubs are absolutely on fire on offense these days, with a line of .310/.992 OPS/L7 games. Compare the Mets at .193/.570, and it is no wonder that they are win-less in August.  Taillon, after a very rough start this season, has impressed lately, while not pitching overly long in his starts.  He had a 2.67 ERA in July and started August with a 5 inning 2 run appearance.  Not so, the Mets' right hander.  It has been more than a month since Carrasco had anything like a quality start.  Last time out, the Royals rang him up for 6 runs and a pair of dingers  over 6 innings.  His OP BA is close to  .350 over the last 5 weeks.

The Cubs are 5-1 in August with a massive 8.6 runs scored a game L7, and are getting solid relief pitching.  The Mets still seem to be in shock after the trade deadline.  This is a very good line given the situation.  Do not wait on this pick!!

Both of Tuesday's starting pitchers have been terrific in their last three starts.  Kikuchi has allowed just a pair of runs over 17+ innings, while Bibee, the Guardians' rookie, has allowed 5 runs in 18+ innings and has a 1.78 ERA in July.  While the Jays are hitting well lately, the Guardians are dead last in OPS over the last two weeks, and struggle vs left handed pitching.  The Jays haven't faced Bibee previously, and this lineup often struggles when facing a new good pitcher.  Both teams have solid bullpens; the Jays' has been especially impressive lately with an ERA of under 3.00. This could be a closely fought pitchers' duel on Tuesday. Take these two teams, who haven't met since last year, to come out under the total. 

The Rangers have won six straight, and now face the A's in Oakland.  The A's must have close to the worst home record in recent memory, and are very poor vs right-handed pitching.  Dunning starts for the Rangers.  He had a couple of rough outings in July, but appears to have turned the corner in his last two  starts. In his most recent appearance he threw seven+ innings of one run ball with eleven K's.  Waldichuk starts for the A's, and he has been very uneven this season.  He hasn't pitched out of the fourth inning in any of his recent and infrequent starts.  The Dodgers roughed him up for four runs in just three+ innings last time out.    A poor A's bullpen (6.00 ERA/L5 games) is not a dependable option if Waldichuk has another short start.  It hasn't always been the case, but the Rangers' pen is in top form with an ERA under 2.00/ L7.

The Rangers are seeing the ball very well  with the third best OPS of .952 in the last week.  While the A's have won two straight, this really should be another win for the hard-hitting Rangers.  Take Texas on the run line at -1 1/2.

It is the hot-hitting Braves vs the Pirates in Pittsburgh today.  Strider starts for Atlanta. After a poorer start vs the D-backs, he has bounced back with two fine outings; 6+innings each, 3 runs total given up and 19 K's.  The Pirates are fifth worst in strikeouts in the last two weeks, so watch  that K number today. Strider pitches better on the road this year.  He will face Bido who is a rookie starter/long reliever for the Pirates.  He has had  very mixed results this season but has been ineffective in his 3 most recent starts, none of which has lasted more than 4 innings.  The Braves have the edge in recent relief pitching (2.16 vs 4.98 L5 games).

Atlanta is still dominating the league hitting stats, sitting at an impressive .304/.950 over the last two weeks.  The Pirates are just .224/.712 in the same period.  The Pirates won their last series, but don't tend to have much success with Bido on the mound.  Atlanta is 8-3 as a road favorite, and is very tough on right-handers.  The Braves could be a little ornery today after losing a rare last series. Take Atlanta on the run line at -1 1/2.

The CFL has slowly begun to figure RedBlacks’ new sensation, QB Crumb, out.  It already began two weeks ago vs. the Stamps as they put an LB in place to “spy him.”  They didn’t quite get it down pat, but last week the TiCats did as they put pressure on him and suffocated him in the pocket.  He ran as many times as he completed passes.  That is not a way to succeed in the CFL.  The RedBlacks have five receivers either out or questionable with injuries.  That won’t make it any easier for Crumb.

The Roughriders held both the Lions’ and the Argos’ offences in check over the last two weeks and should have an easier time of it vs. the RedBlacks. 

This is backup QB Fine’s 3rd start in a row.  He should be starting to feel more comfortable and his solid numbers over the past two weeks should translate into points.  Take the points and the Riders for the win.

The Giants are 7-3 but it isn't the offense that is winning games for them.  At .210 BA/.624 they are 30th in the league in OPS over the last two weeks and have scored four or less runs in nine of ten games.  The A's are somewhat better at .231/.693, but have trouble scoring as well, with 3 or less runs in their last five games.  Medina starts for Oakland.  The rookie has improved dramatically this season and is off 3 fine starts, allowing just 3 runs total in 15+ innings.  He struck out 27 batters while cutting down on free passes in July. Cobb likely starts for the Giants.  He blanked the A's in late July and finished the month with a 2.42 ERA.  The two teams are averaging 2.9 and 3.9 runs a game over their last seven, making a total look very promising.  The one issue is the A's bullpen, which has not been very dependable this season, but did show well yesterday.  I am wagering on continued poor offense from both teams and taking the Under today. 

Detroit evened their home series vs the Rays on Saturday much to my surprise and dismay.  It will be Manning vs Glasnow on Sunday.  Glasnow has been super sharp lately, giving the Rays seven innings in three straight games, while allowing just four runs total.  He has pitched better on the road this season. Manning returned from the IL in fine form, but his last two games have been poor.  He has given up 4 home runs in the two games.

The Rays really should win this one.  The Tigers are poor at home and 29th in the league against right handed pitching.  Glasnow is one of the finest right handers around at the moment.  The Rays are hitting much better than in their dark days of July, and fifth in the league against right handers.  Their bullpen is showing signs of improvement, and has a decided edge on the Tigers' relief corps.  Considering how the Orioles are playing, Tampa really can't afford a series loss to a lesser team like the Tigers.

Tampa is 4-1 against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting.  Look for Tampa to rebound from Saturday's loss in a big way.  Game three will go to the Rays. Take Tampa on the Run line at -1 1/2.

With the Argos running away with the East title, second place is still up for grabs.  By winning this, the Als could put the TiCats to bed and make it between the Als and the RedBlacks.  Given that star offseason signing QB Mitchell is out again long term and Hamilton is down to their 3rd string QB this should be it.  The Als won handily, 38-12, in the first meeting between these two and would take the season series with a win Saturday. 

QB Fajardo has been outstanding after a down year last season and is 4th in pass efficiency, 3rd in yds/pass and 1st with the lowest interception rate.  On top of that the Als have the highest graded O-line according to PFF.  3rd stringer Powell for the TiCats has the lowest avg. passing depth in the league so he won’t be able to threaten the Al’s defense.  Powell has come in to lead an offense that sports the 2nd worst turnover ratio, INTs thrown and penalty rate.  And to top it off Hamilton’s last two starting LTs are hurt, which will be dangerous for the backside outside rush. 

The other problem for the TiCats is their “D” has been less than stellar.  They had a solid outing against a mediocre offense in the RedBlacks but are worst in the league in points allowed, opposition TDs, avg. 1st down plays against and 2nd worst in avg. rush yds against, number of opposition 1st downs, opposition pass efficiency allowed, 30+ yard plays allowed, and opposition yards/play.  Time to lay the points and go with the Als. 

The Royals are a surprising 4-0 in August, hitting well above their weight at .327 BA/.894 OPS in the last week.  They swept both the Mets and Twins, but considering their season, it is hard to think that this surge is sustainable.  One negative in this 8-2 run is the bullpen, 28th ranked this year, and with a 5.45 ERA over the last ten games. The Royals are a poor road team this year, and struggle against left handed pitching.  They will face a fine young lefty in the Phillies' Sanchez.  He has come into his own since mid-June and has allowed no more than 3 runs in 5 starts, sporting a very fine .172 Op BA in July.  The Phillies do have a good bullpen this year, a rarity for them in recent history.  Their offense has been just average recently but they will have their chances today when facing the Royals' Marsh.  The rookie right-hander has struggled more often than not in his first season, giving up 9 runs over 8 innings in his last two starts.  Walks, hit batters, and the long ball have all been issues.  This is the day the Royals come back to earth.  Take the 6-4 Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Rays made a big pickup at the deadline, adding Guardians starter Civale.  He missed some time to the IL but has been good and consistent since returning, with a 2.08 ERA over his last seven appearances. He has pitched for good length too; 20+ innings of 3 run ball in his last three starts.  Civale is very good in the early innings.  Detroit's lefty Skubal spent many month on the IL this season.  Since returning, none of his starts have been longer than five innings. Two of five starts were ugly and the other two were shut-outs.   He has been very good (in a small sample size) at home.

The Rays' offense is on the upswing, climbing to 10th at .252/.801 OPS, much better that the Tigers' 25th ranked line.  The Rays pen has looked a little more like its dependable self lately as well.  Skubal is all or nothing in his recent starts.  Even if he pitches well he is unlikely to stick around past the fifth inning.  Civale is much more likely to pitch longer.  Tampa has won four straight against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting.  Look for Tampa to continue it's rebound from a very rough stretch.  Game two goes to the Rays.

Eventually the Argos undefeated string will end but not this week.  They are 6-0 straight up and ATS.  Their offence sputtered a bit last week but between their top notch “D” and their special teams they still put up over 30 points and kept the RoughRiders out of the end zone until garbage time.  The Stamps only pulled off field goals last weekend vs. the Als.

The Stamps are coming off only 4 days rest and their chaotic offense under QB Maier is too mistake prone for the Argos with their league leading +16 turnover ratio, not to take advantage of.  Maier has thrown 11 INTs while the Argos have made 16 INTs.  The Stamps rush game averages only 85 yds/game (7th in the league) and only 51 yds/game for the last 3 games while the Argos only allow 63 yds/game (2nd in the league).  This should make it even tougher for the Stamps pass game.

The Stamps do not match up well with the Argos in so many ways and will not be able to make up the spread.

The Astros lost a close one to the Yankees on Thursday, but I like their chances to bounce back today.  While Hunter Brown's season has been up and down this year, in his last two starts he has been very tough to score on.  He has been solid on the road this season.   The Yankees' right hander Severino has had a very tough year.  Off one of his worst starts (9 runs/3.1 innings), the quality starts have been few and far between.   The Astros are a good road team, hitting very well at the moment (.293/.846 OPS/L7 games). They have made some excellent additions at the deadline, while the Yankees really stood pat.  The Yankees struggle vs right handers this year to the tune of just .226 BA and are giving up more runs than they are scoring (3.6/4.0 L7 games).  It is hard to expect much of Severino.  I'll take the Astros to even the series today. 

The 4-6 Reds ran into a very hot Cubs team that roughed up their pitching pretty thoroughly.  They'll turn to Ashcraft to right the ship against Corbin and the Nationals on Friday.  Ashcraft is back in the groove with a sparkling 1.84 ERA in July.  He hasn't given up more than 2 runs in his last 6 starts, while pitching into the sixth or more.  He held the Nats to a single run over 6 innings the last time he faced them.  His counterpart, lefty Patrick Corbin struggled in July with a 5.83 ERA and a .314 Op BA for the month.  The Reds are the wrong team to face with that kind of an average; they're hitting .265/.820 OPS in the last week, much better than the Nationals.  The Nationals' bullpen is one of the league's worst, with an ERA of 6.23 on the road this season.  The Reds' bullpen has been heavily used and ineffective in their last series, but is still the better of the two.
Cincinnati is 4-0 vs Washington this year. They are heavily favored, and I like their chances.  Take the Reds to build a lead early and hang on for a home win on Friday.

Two Western Conference titans will go head-to-head with the top defence in the league and the most experienced defence in the league.  The Lions are 1st or 2nd in 13 team defense categories while the Bombers are 1st or 2nd in 7 team defense categories.  The key category for both is points against where the Lions are 1st and the Bombers are 2nd.  The Lions “D” has “pitched” two shutouts this year and only allowed the Bombers 6 points in their first game in Winnipeg this season.  The Bombers are coming off a bye so they should do a bit better but not enough to get to a high score. 

The Lions will start their 2nd string QB Evans again this week and he hasn’t had great success against defensive coordinator Hall’s Bombers in the past.  So, in spite of these offenses being highly ranked, they will be in tough for this game.

The Lions are 7-1 in their last 8 for unders on the road, and 10-1 for unders in their last 11 vs. the West.  The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 for unders vs. teams with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the West, and 4-0 for unders after an ATS loss.  There are many more ways these teams favor unders so it’s safe to say playing the under for this game is a good thing.

The 8-2 Cubs are the hottest team in the NL in the last 10 games, absolutely scorching the league on offense (.307 BA, .939 OPS) in their last 15 games.  The Reds have a strong offense (.255, .764 OPS) but pale in comparison.  The Cubs have crushed the Reds in two of three games in the series, allowing a hefty 21 runs, but scoring 41.  Taillon is pitching much better than his season's ERA, allowing just 2 runs in 11+ innings in his last two appearances, with a 2.67 ERA in July.  The Reds' right-hander Weaver is off a solid start but previous July appearances were short and poor. He was hit to a .292 Op BA, and gave up 8 home runs in July.  The Reds are giving up more runs than they score; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.15 ERA/L10, and has been seriously stretched in the last few games.  They'll have a tough time outscoring the Cubs on Monday.  Take Chicago to win at home.

The Royals have won 5 straight games, including 2 against the gutted Mets.  While it doesn't always translate immediately, you've got to think that the Mets will struggle.  KC is hitting well for average, and at least average for power over the last two weeks, outpacing the Mets.  Royals right-hander Singer has had more quality than poor starts in July.  He has a 3.79 ERA since the All-Star  break, and his strikeouts are up, with 19 K's to 3 walks in his last two appearances.  Mets' righty Carrasco is still struggling, allowing well over a run an inning in his last two starts.  The Mets have the better bullpen.  I like KC's chances today, especially early.  Take the surprising Royals to build up a lead and hang on in the late innings. Royals to win three straight over NY.

The White Sox continued their sell off by shipping out starting 3B Burger, to add to their trading away of their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever.  Probable starter Cease is respectable as the next man up but not enough to tip the scales in the White Sox favor.  His numbers are similar to probable starter Dunning for the Rangers so Cease should keep them even for awhile.  His available bullpen throwers for Wednesday are a step down those from on tap for the Rangers, so things could begin to fall apart after Cease and Dunning have done their customary 5 innings.

Where the game will really go south for the White Sox is at the plate.  Over the last 15 days they have continued to plummet at bat as their team avg. is 26th in the majors and their OPS is dead last.  The Rangers are in 18th and 11th respectively over the same time frame but throughout the season they have feasted on RHPs with the best avg. and the 3rd best OPS in the majors.  These are teams headed in different directions which will make this a solid call for the Rangers to win. 

Probable starting pitcher for the Brewers, southpaw Miley, has been on a heater as of late with a 4-1 record in his last 5 and a scintillating 1.20 ERA.    He has been solid with three of his last 5 starts being scoreless outings for him. The Nationals’ probable starting pitcher is another lefty, Gore. His results haven’t been as great as he’s only averaged 4 IP over that span which has resulted in a 2-3 record, even though two of his outings have been scoreless for the opposition.  He almost must be perfect to get a win for the woeful Nationals. 

The available bullpen for the Nationals sports a 5.43 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP so Gore doesn’t have much backup for this one. 

The Nationals decided to sell their OPS and home run leader, 3B Candelario.  Given their last 7 days have resulted in a 26th best avg and 30th best OPS in the majors this won’t get better in their game against the Brewers.  The Nationals have hit LH starters hard but have only a 15-24 record to show for it.  In terms of run differential against LH starters it is +.2 for the Brewers and -.9 for the Nationals.  The Nationals have a lot working against them for Wednesday’s game and consequently the Brewers will win this one.

The Rangers and the White Sox couldn’t be headed in more different directions.  The White Sox just traded their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever.  Consequently, this will be a bullpen game for them with probable starter Scholtens making his third start of the season instead of coming out of the bullpen.  There are big holes in the rest of the bullpen that will be called on to help out.  Scholtens lost both starts and has a WHIP of 1.97 in them, so it doesn’t bode well for the White Sox. 

Probable starter Heany for the Rangers is in a more accustomed position with a 2.80 ERA in his last 5 starts, having shutout the opposition in two of those starts.

At the plate the Rangers have been 1st in avg. and 2nd in OPS in the majors against RH starters.  They have cooled down overall lately with a couple of injuries to key contributors but are still far superior to the White Sox who are 23rd in avg and 26th in OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.

On the road with their 20-35 record the White Sox have a -0.7 run differential/9 innings while the Rangers with their 34-20 home record have a +1.6 run differential/9 innings.  Clearly the White Sox are in tough in so many ways that laying the points for the Rangers is a clear call.

These two teams can hit and have been on a tear at the plate lately.  Probable pitchers Sandoval for the Angels and Strider for the Braves have been impressive (especially Strider) and have decent stats but lately they have been involved in very high scoring games.  In the last 5 he has started, Sandoval’s games have resulted in an average total of 11.2 runs while Strider’s have averaged 9.4 runs over the same stretch of games.

Add to that, the fact that these two teams have been productive at the plate over the last 15 days, the Angels have the 4th best OPS in the majors and the Braves have the 2nd best and you can see where this is leading.  Against LH starters the Braves have the best OPS and 2nd best avg. in the majors.  The Angels have the 4th best OPS and 10th best avg. against RH starters.  This seems like a recipe for some serious production at the plate and the results bear that out.  At home the Braves’ games average a total of 10.6 runs/game while the Angels’ games on the road average a total of 9.8 runs/game.  When you put together the Braves average vs LHP (5.9 runs/game) and the Angels average vs RHP ( 5.1 runs/game) you end up with another high total of 11.  In the last 10 head-to-head, these two teams have an over record of 7-3.  All these numbers add up to a great play for the over on this game.  

A pair of teams pushing for the lead in their respective divisions square off when the Guardians face the Astros in Houston on Monday.  The Guardians, a .500 team for the season, are four games under .500 on the road.  While their hitting has improved somewhat lately, Cleveland is averaging just 4.1 Runs per game lately. The Astros (.281/.844) are leading the league in OPS over the last week, and stand a good chance of spoiling Syndergaard's Guardians debut.  Thor struggled to a  +ten ERA over his last three starts with the Dodgers.  It is hard to see him pitching much better on Monday as quality starts are rare when he is on the mound this year.  JP France starts for Houston.  The Astros are 5-0 in his recent starts.  He has a 1.47 ERA in this last two appearances, allowing just a single run over 14 innings and has been very consistent this season.  The Astros and Guardians are known for bullpen excellence.  This has not been the case lately, but the Astros can certainly expect to get more innings out of France than Syndergaard.

Take the superior starter and more potent offense of the home team to win out on Monday.  I am wagering on the Astros on the Run Line at -1.5.

The Rays, off a road series win vs the Astros, seem to be emerging from their July swoon. They face the 5-5 Yankees whose record benefits from a series sweep against KC, but who have otherwise been equally unimpressive in July.  Tampa's offense is starting to climb up the ladder, now 17th in offense (.241 BA, .746 OPS), while the Yankees are still near bottom-dwellers at .225 BA/.669 OPS.  While neither team has excelled in July, some key features other than starting pitching favor the Rays today.  Tampa is a robust 50-39 vs right-handers (44-42 Yankees) and 18-13 vs division opponents (14-19 Yankees).  Looking at the starters, German has been one of the most uneven starters this season, ranging from his no-hitter in June to a 3.1 inning 10 run dog the previous game.  He has been very poor in his last two starts, giving up nearly a run an inning.  His first inning ERA (6.63) speaks for itself.  Meanwhile Glasnow has had two wins and three two-run or less starts in his last four appearances, ending July with a 2.30 ERA and a .197 opposing batting average.

The Yankees struggle vs right-handed pitching, and Glasow in a good one.  Who knows quite what to expect from German?  NY has the better bullpen, but the offense remains a mystery. Glasnow has been delivering 7 inning starts in his last two games.  I favor the Rays to continue in their rebuild.  Take Tampa to win.

The 7-3 Reds seem to know how to win this year.  They are getting good starting pitching, which includes Sunday's starter Ashcraft.  He has pitched well this month after a dreadful June, with a 2.331 ERA in July, giving up 2 or less runs in his last 6 starts.  It is a similar story for the Dodgers' Grove; poor June followed by a solid July, with a 3.66 ERA for the month.  One caveat for Grove is his Op BA, a hefty .308 for the month.  The Dodgers are hitting well, .271 BA, .806 OPS, considerably better than the Reds. The Reds have a youthful enthusiasm this season earning a split in the last two games , and a 3-2 season lead with the Dodgers.  Aschcraft has been consistent enough lately to question the Dodgers as a heavy favorite. Both series games have been decided by a single run.  Take the Reds on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Cubs are hitting very well at the moment and have won five straight vs the opposing Cardinals, including a recent 7-2 victory featuring today's Cubs starter Taillon.  Chicago has also limited teams to under three runs in four of five recent games while scoring 37 runs L5.  Taillon, who struggled much of the season, has pitched well in July, with a 2.96 ERA  and a 20-4 K/BB ratio.  The Cubs' bullpen has out-pitched the Cards' relievers at a 2.93 to 6.10 ERA over the last ten games.  Chicago has a very healthy 6.9/4.4 runs for and against ratio Last seven games.  The Cards are in the negative at 5.1/6.4 in their last seven games.  Wainwright starts for the Cardinals.  While he pitched well in his last stat, this has not been a fitting end to an illustrious career.  It is hard to bet on his continued success today.  Take the Cubs to win on the road again.

The sad sack Elks are in tough.  This won’t be the night they win their first in 20 games at home or when they cover the spread.  The Lions are just too good. 

The Lions’ “D” is first in the CFL in points allowed and net offence allowed.  The Elks’ offence is last in points scored and net offence.  The Lions’ “D” is second in sacks while the Elks offence has allowed the 3rd most sacks in the league.  QB Cornelius for the Elks has the worst pass efficiency rating (for qualified QBs) in the league and the Lions have the best pass defence in the league.  The Elks have given up the most turnovers, most interceptions and have the worst turnover ratio (-6). 

Have you heard enough yet?  The Elks allow 144 yds/game rushing (worst in the CFL) and the Lions get their star RB Mizzell, back in the lineup. 

And just for a clincher the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 while the Elks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7.

The Elks are in big trouble.  They were shutout last game against the Lions.  Saturday will not be enough of an improvement to stop the Lions.  Pick the Lions and lay the points.

The Argonauts have been a juggernaut but not as heavy a favorite as the books are offering.   They will be missing a couple of receivers and DL Costigan.  Modest losses to say the least.  What isn’t accounted for is the return of at least 2 and maybe 3 receivers to the Riders lineup.  The Riders will also get starting center Godber back to stabilize their problematic O-line in front of 2nd string QB Fine who will have had a week of reps, film and confidence building after a tough outing against the vaunted BC Lions defence. With Godber back the rush game must improve some which in turn will improve the pass game. 

On defence the Riders get stud DL Lanier back to add to a pass rush that was successful vs. the Lions last week.  The Riders also signed all-star and INT leader in 2021, Washington.  Although he won’t start he should get a chance to make a difference

When comparing the two squads, some key areas are very close.  In opposition net offence allowed, the Riders are 3rd and the Argos are 4th and in first downs allowed those positions are reversed.  In points allowed the Riders allow 24.5/game while the Argos allow 22.2.  In passing “D” the Argos are 8th which should allow a little more success for QB Fine.  When all is said and done, expect the Riders to lose the game but to cover the spread.

It is Dunning vs Musgrove as the Rangers face the Padres in San Diego. Dunning struggled his last time out with his worst start of the year; five runs over three innings pitched. That is two sub-par starts in his last three appearances. And while the Rangers are still hitting very well, their bullpen has not been an asset, resulting in a 6.6/7.3 runs for and against ratio. The Padres hitting still isn’t really where it should be, but they are now 10th in OPS (.811) over the last week. Padres’ right-hander Musgrove has been on a roll with just a 2.00 ERA last three starts. His three runs given up to Detroit last time out is the most he has given up in six appearances. The Padres’ pen has been very strong with an ERA of under 3.00 in home games this year.

San Diego has won each of Musgrove’s last four starts by two or more runs. Dunning’s performance lately is concerning and there is also the bullpen to consider. Look for Musgrove and the SD bullpen to hold down the Texas offense. Take the Padres to win today.

The Rangers are allowing a whopping 7.3 runs a game over the last week, and that underwhelming bullpen is part of the problem.   Dunning starts today, and while he is having an impressive season, he has struggled in  two of three starts.  Last time out was his worst start of the year. Musgrove has been very solid, but the Rangers are a formidable offense to reckon with. The Padres are starting to hit, climbing to tenth in OPS over the last week.  Today's total is low, but I am wagering on the total to go over when all is said and done.

It looks like QB Mitchell will be back for the TiCats this week. It really isn’t any reason to be excited as he has some daunting stats to take note of.  He didn’t do well for the Stamps last season and lost his place to Maier.  But this season his rough ways continued with a 58% completion rate, 53.3 passer efficiency rating and 4 INT vs. 1 TD pass to start out with before he was hurt.  He is returning to play against the best “D” in the league for avg. rushing gain against, 2nd best rush yards against/game and 3rd best in first downs allowed.  His own offence had a very weak run game against the Stamps last week with only 38 yards total on the ground.  It could even be worse this week.  DB Dandridge for the RedBlacks has the second most INTs in the league.  He along with the rest of the Red Blacks “D” will be looking to feast on an O-line that has to pass block all game long and adding to their 4th highest sack total in the league at Mitchell’s expense.

On the other side of the ball Crumb will have even more reps in practice as starting QB to fine tune his game against a Hamilton “D”

that has allowed the most points against, TDs and yards/play in the CFL.  They are also 2nd to last in first downs allowed.  Crumb will also have little to fear against a defence with the 2nd least INTs and least turnovers caused.  With the Red Blacks top rated run game (that includes Crumb himself), Crumb will have plenty of options and time for his pass game.  Clearly you should lay the points and take Ottawa for this one.

Both the Tigers and the Marlins have faltered lately.  Probable pitcher Olson for the Tigers and Garrett for the Marlins have also faltered.  In their last three starts, rookie Olson has a 6.00 ERA and Garrett has a staggering 9.23 ERA.  It hasn’t been pretty.  The Tigers’ road games and the Marlins’ home games average totals greater than 8.  Tigers’ games vs a LH starter and Marlins’ games vs a RH starter both average totals greater than 8

For the season, the Tigers average 3.89 runs for /9 and 4.83 runs against/9.  The Marlins average 4.14 runs for /9 and 4.32 runs against/9.  If you take any two of those averages and add them together you will have a total well over 8.  Go with the over on this game and you will be over the moon.

It is rookie vs ace  when the Guardians meet the White Sox in Chicago today.  Bibee, the Guardians' young right-hander held two solid teams to just 2 runs total over 13 innings in his last two starts.  He has been both consistent and good in July with a 1.44 ERA and a minuscule .165 OP BA in July.  The Sox have yet to face Bibee.  Sox ace, Cease, has looked more himself after a poor April and May.  With just one (very) poor start in his last nine, he three-hit both the Braves and the Twins, allowing just 2 runs in total in 11 innings in his last two appearances. Cease's ERA has ballooned in the sixth and seventh innings so a really long start in unlikely.  The Sox' bullpen is not dependable at all.  The Guardians, who are usually known for solid relief have  their own issues in the pen lately however they are much improved on offense, hitting .271 BA and .791 OPS in the last two weeks. compare the Sox at .251, .668 OPS in the same time frame.  The Whits Sox are just 5-14 in July, one of the poorer teams vs right-handed pitching, and giving up 5.9 runs a game over their last seven.  While this game could be very close early, I favor the Guardians' bullpen to come through and Cleveland to steal this one on the road. 

The Cubs and the Cards have both been up and down this season and ultimately ending up below .500 and side by side in the NL Central.  The Cubs have dominated the Cards and are 3-1 over their last 4 games head-to-head and 5-2 over their last 7. 

Probable starters Steele for the Cubs and Mikolas for the Cards have had some impressive outings over their last 5 starts.  Both have a 2.40 ERA, while Steele has lasted an inning longer on average.  In his last two starts against the Cubs Mikolas is 1-1 with his latest outing against them resulting in 5IP and 5 ERs against.  Steele is 3-0 vs the Cards in his last 3 this season, lasting 6 innings in each, including a July 21st win.  Mikolas gave up 11 hits and 5 ERs in his most recent loss to the Cubs July 22nd. 

Both teams have been at or near the top in avg. and OPS since the All-star break, but the Cubs have been more productive.   In their last 7 the Cubs have a positive run diff/9 innings of 2.7 while the Cards’ is only 0.1.  Additionally, the Cubs average twice as many hits and BB vs. RH starters this season as the Cards do vs. LH starters.  It’s clear that the Cubs should be good value as a play for this one. 

This midweek matchup in the Windy City is a study in mediocrity.  Probable pitchers Stroman for the Cubs and Lynn for the White Sox have struggled lately.  Especially Stroman who had so many fine starts in June and May.  He has a 6.20 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP so far in July.  He is 1-3 in his last 5 starts and has lasted an average of 4.5 innings over that stretch.  He is 4-2 in his road starts which will contribute to our call for the play on this game. 

Lynn has a 4.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for July.  Not as bad as Stroman’s but not world beating either.  He is 2-4 in home starts.

At the plate the mediocrity is more one sided.  In the last 15 days the White Sox are 13th in avg and 27th in the more influential stat, OPS.  The Cubs on the other hand are leading the majors in both stats over the last 15 days.  They also have a significant positive run differential over the last 7 games of 2.9 runs/game while the White Sox have a negative run differential over the same span of 0.1 runs/game.  At home the White Sox have a negative run differential of 0.9 runs/game while the the Cubs have a positive run differential of 0.2 runs/game. 

In July the Cubs are 10-9 while the White Sox 5-12.  It’s clear that the Cubs are less mediocre than the White Sox.  That is enough to get them over the finish line as a solid value pick on our midweek mediocre feature for Wednesday.

It has been a tough July for the two Florida teams.  Both started off strong, but the Rays have fallen out of first in the AL East and the Marlins have fallen well off the pace in the NL East.  Probable starter Alcantara for the Marlins has pitched well but is still 1-3 in his last five starts.  In July specifically he is 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.  He also has an overall record of 2-5 on the road with a 4.91 ERA.

Eflin has been outstanding (apart from a 3 inning, 5 earned run outing at KC recently) with a 10-1 home record which includes 7 innings of shutout pitching vs. the Orioles in their most recent series for first place that led to the Rays’ only win in the series.  His ERA for July has been a respectable 3.68 (despite that disastous outing at KC) and his WHIP has been excellent at 0.82.

Both teams have been in the middle of the pack in the last 15 days at the plate although this season the Rays have a positive run differential vs. RH starters and at home while the Marlins are negative vs RH starters and on the road.  And the Rays have one outstanding stat at the plate as they have the 6th best OPS in the majors at home.

The clincher comes when you realize that the Rays are 9-1 in the last 10 games head-to-head with the Marlins.  Take the Rays in this battle of Florida.

Probable pitchers, Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been outstanding lately.  In his last 5 outings Abbott’s ERA has been 2.00.  He has allowed 0, 2, 6, 1 and 1 earned runs.  His record has been 3-2.  The two losses have been to the Brewers.  Burnes has been even better with a 5-0 record in his last 5 outings, a 1.60 ERA and allowing 0, 0, 2, 2 and 4 earned runs.  Both pitchers have averaged 6.1 IP over these 5 outings.  The other big difference is that Burnes won his two outings against the Reds in this stretch.  The Reds have struggled mightily to hit against Burnes.  In the last 15 days the Reds have struggled to hit against anyone with their avg. and OPS in the bottom 5th of the majors.

Available relievers is another advantage the Brewers will have over the Reds for this one.  The Brewers look like a great play Tuesday night.

Probable pitchers Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been on fire lately.  Abbott’s last 5 outings have averaged 6.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00.  Burnes has been even better with a 1.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, also averaging  6.1 innings.  In July his WHIP is a miniscule 0.63. 

In the last 15 days, both teams have been in the bottom fifth of the majors in batting average and OPS.  The Brewers have especially struggled against LHP. 

Starting to look a pretty strong case is being made for an under total.  In their last 8 games over/unders have been 1-7 for the Brewers and 2-6 for the Reds.  Head to head, in their last 10, over/unders have been 3-7 and in their last 5 they have been 0-5.  The recipe for an under looks like it is coming together just fine.

The Pirates swept the Padres in Pittsburgh in June, so a little payback may be in order, starting on Monday.  Yu Darvish will start for the Padres and he has been very sharp in July, allowing 3,1, and 0 runs in his last three starts.  The Pirates have not been hitting well (.218 BA, 6.635 OPS), and are just 4 -13 in July.  Their runs for/runs against ratio is a rough 3.0/6.4. A very fresh face will start for the Pirates.  Priester was roughed up in his first career start, allowing seven runs and a pair of home runs in five + innings.  The Padres are not a team you want to face when giving up long balls.  San Diego is hitting better of late (.245, .798), and ran up 14 runs just a couple of starts ago. Both teams are getting reasonable relief pitching at the moment, but  I think the Padres might run up the score early in this game.  Take San Diego on the run line at -1 1/2.

In a single season, Reds' starter Ashcraft has gone from excellent to awful and now back to solid again.  After a 10.38 ERA in June, he is 2-1 2.00 ERA in July, cutting way down on the long balls.  Ashcraft has consistently pitched better in away games.  Colin Rea (5-4, 4.64 ERA) has been somewhat uneven with about equal quality and poorer starts, pitching 5 innings per appearance.  The Reds tagged him for 5 runs over 4.2 innings just two starts ago.  The Brewers, as usual, are good pitch-no hit this season, allowing 2.7 runs while scoring 3.9 over their last seven games. At 12-6 in July, pitching has definitely carried them, but Rea is not their best starter, and they play a tough offensive team on Monday.  The Reds have re-found their winning touch, now with 5 straight victories.  They tend to win in bunches, and are hitting well (.271 BA, .837 OPS L2 weeks).  They lost 3 of 4 against the Brewers last time out, so will be looking for pay-back today.  Take Ashcraft and the Reds, a small dog today, to win on the road.

Both these teams had confidence boosting wins last week.  This week each will face a defence in the top half of the league and both offences continue to languish in the bottom quarter of the league. 

Calgary will have put together a package to deal with Ottawa’s QB Crumb who surprised everyone in the second half of week 6’s come from behind win over an aging Bombers’ defence with his mobility and ability to find receivers.  The Stamps will not be surprised and will disguise the pass rush and run defence that should be problematic for the QB making his second career start. 

Calgary’s Maier has had problems when he is hurried.  Ottawa is second in the league in sacks.  With Mills and the Calgary run game struggling last week against the Riders, they will not have an easier time this week against the  2nd best run defence in the league.  The Red Blacks have the 3rd highest number of sacks as well so with troubles running the football Maier, will be in some difficulty trying to pass effectively. 

Ottawa and Calgary already have the worst and 3rd worst passing yards/game numbers so put this all together and we have another early season defensive battle on our hands.  Take the under and enjoy the domination of the defences.

The 4-6 White Sox lost the first two games of their road series vs the Twins on Saturday.  It'll be Giolito vs Ober, a pair of quality right handers on Sunday.  The Twins are seeing the ball well, hitting .255 BA/.824 OPS over the last two weeks.  The White Sox are struggling in 28th place in OPS, with a poor 5.0/6.0 runs scored to runs allowed ratio.  Giolito was absolutely bombed last time out after a pair of dynamite starts.  He is a bit Jekyll and Hyde-ish with a road ERA 3 runs higher than when pitching at home.  Ober has been very sharp in July with a 1.89 ERA , 18 K's to 3 walks and just 4 runs allowed.  I favor the Twins pen over Chicago's relievers.  Giolito's future is up in the air, and the Twins are trying to fend off the Guardians for first in their division.  I like the Twins chances for the sweep on Sunday.  Minnesota to win.

The Brewers have been a strong 12-5 in July, with a better winning %  than the 9-7 Braves.  A pair of right-handers with a similar issue start today. Teheran returned from a lengthy absence with a small run of terrific starts, but has since struggled, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings.  He has an OP BA of .327 in July.  Braves' starter Elder has had a fine year until his last two starts.  He has allowed a dozen runs in just 6+ innings, with an ERA of 9.95 in July.  Atlanta is  5.4/6.9 in runs for and against over the last week.  The 8-2 Brewers are not know for offense but have been averaging 4 runs a game lately, and will have their chances against Elder. The Braves' overall ERA over the last two weeks is an ugly  6.14.  Atlanta leads the league in offense and can put up runs in a hurry against a struggling pitcher like Teheran. Take today's game to go over the total.

It will be pitching vs hitting when the Nationals face the Giants in Washington on Saturday.  The Nats are outhitting the Giants at the moment; Washington is 6th in OPS while the Giants are way down yonder at 27th in the last two weeks.  When it comes to pitching it is no contest.  Washington has the league's worst pitching over the last two weeks with an ugly 6.13 ERA.  Their bullpen is approaching double figures in ERA in that time frame. The Nats are giving up a whopping 7.7 runs a game compared to 4.1 for SF.  Webb starts for the Giants.  He is a work horse in top form, giving up just 4 runs while striking out 28 over 22+ innings in his last three starts.  He'll face Josiah Gray, who has had some fine starts this year, but can struggle.  4or 5 runs given up over 5 innings is a common thread for Gray.  While Webb may pitch better at home, Gray's ERA is nearly double in home games.  
San Fran is a very good road team and 33-21 in night games.  The Nats are just 15-32 at home and 18-35 at night.  Look for the Giants to run up the tab against the Washington bullpen and win on the run line (-1 1/2)

The Riders have devoted fans across the country.  No one wants to rain on their enthusiasm.  Sorry Riders fans, this doesn’t look good.  You are going to have to pick the Lions on this one even when your boys are given maybe double digit points.

It starts with injuries.  QB Harris is out for the season.  Starting center Godber is out and maybe LT Council.  The Riders O-line has struggled immensely giving up 4 sacks/game (7 last week) against a Lions’ pass rush that has the 2nd most sacks in the league.  The Riders are last in avg. rushing gain on 1st down.  The Lions’ “D” allows the 2nd least avg. yards rushing on 1st down.  QB Fine is starting his first game.  It could get ugly for pass protection.  And even if he has some time occasionally, the Lions’ “D” is 1st or 2nd in almost every category in the league on pass defense. 

On the other side of the ball the Riders will be missing MLB Dean, DL Lanier and at least two starting DBs.  Their “D” has been solid this year but won’t be able to get off the field with all the 2 and outs the Rider “O” will serve up.  And the Lions’ run game is rounding into form.  It will allow their very solid O-line to set up solid pass protection for QB Adams to find his bevy of star receivers (Whitehead, Rhymes, Hatcher and now Hollins) and pick apart the hurting Rider “D”.  To add insult to injury the Lions are coming off a bye week (teams are 6-1 this season after a by week) and are healthy.  They are 5-0 ATS in their L5 at home and 7-3 ATS in their L10 after a bye.  So, Riders fans, hold your nose, lay the points and take the Lions.  Everyone else, just leave your nose out of it.

It is a battle of two offensive juggernauts when the Dodgers, leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, face the home-town Rangers who aren't far behind at .801.  The Dodgers blew out Texas in the late innings to win game one of the series. The Rangers were 6-0 previous to that game, sweeping the Rays while holding them to just six runs in the series.  The Dodgers are 8-2 L10 games.  Rookie Bobby Miller (3-1, 5.02 ERA/L7 games) starts for LA.  He has had some solid if short starts this season, but tends to struggle after the fourth inning with an ERA of 11.57 in the fifth.  He will face Dane Dunning who has been a pillar of consistency, allowing two or less runs in five of his last six appearances, while averaging six innings per start.  Dunning is 5-0 at home.
The Rangers are a very good home team, and a good bet to rebound after a loss.  Neither bullpen is especially strong. I like Dunning and the Rangers to come out on top today as the pride of Texas take umbrage over a lopsided loss. Take the underdog to win or at least keep this one close.