The Lions' offense bounced back against the Dolphins last week but went absolutely nowhere in previous weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots.  The Packers have a solid pass defense, 2nd in pass yards allowed, which will go some way to limiting Detroit's options. Green Bay is also strong in red zone defense, and have limited 3rd down conversions.  They have an average passer rating of 79 in their last three weeks. The Lions also just shipped out their talented tight end at the deadline.  
Neither team runs much, although the Packers can and did step out vs the Bills last week, and should this week.  The Lions' run defense is lamentable.  In fact the Lions defense as a whole is lamentable, resulting in the dismissal of their defensive co-ordinator this week.  It only remains for the Packers to put some points on the board.  While his secondary stats aren't poor, Rodgers has not been able to put up points or yards this year.  The O line inconsistent with injuries, but is starting to recover, and his receiving corp is weak.  It has been suggested that Detroit's pass defense can make anyone look good.  The Packers used a much more balanced offense when they put up their most yards against a very tough Bills defense last week.  Look for them to continue to improve against a weakened Lions offense, and a disorganized Detroit defense.  I am on the Packers to bounce back, win and cover. 9*!

Wake Forest and NC State are both Top 25 teams that come into Saturday sporting identical 6-2 straight up records. But at the betting window, it’s been a different story for these ACC rivals. Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS while NC State is 2-6 ATS. 

Two Thursdays ago, NC State found itself down 21-3 at home to sorry Virginia Tech. But thanks to a QB change, the Wolfpack rallied for the 22-21 win. MJ Morris was the spark, coming in and throwing for three touchdowns. Morris completed 69% of his passes for 265 yards in the second half alone vs. Va Tech. With Devin Leary out for the season, NC State looks to have found its answer at QB1. 

Wake Forest is coming off an awful 48-21 loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over eight times, including six in the third quarter alone. The Demon Deacons’ only previous loss was in double overtime to Clemson, but I am skeptical of this team. The offense remains one-dimensional (can’t run the ball) and I believe that the NC State defense can slow down QB Sam Hartman.

NC State should not be an underdog in this game. They have won 15 straight at home, which is the sixth-longest home win streak in the nation currently. Wake Forest hasn’t won here in Raleigh since 2018. 

The Wolfpack are undervalued right now due to a five-game ATS losing skid and not having Leary. But Morris looks to be the real deal and you should take the points here. 10*

Game Six features a rematch of Game Two starters, Wheeler and Valdez.  Wheeler was lights out early in the postseason, but struggled against the Astros in his last start, experiencing a much remarked-on loss of velocity.  He was not as good on the road in the regular season, and was hit very hard by Houston’s big three batters last time out.
Astros left-hander Valdez has done everything asked of him to date, pitching into the 7th and holding the Phillies to just 1 run with 9 strikeouts.  That is now four straight games with 2 runs or less allowed, and you can throw in a shutout vs. the Phillies down the stretch as well.
The Astros are a formidable team at home and their bullpen just doesn’t break down.  I can’t see Wheeler pitching for length on Saturday. The Phillies’ best relievers were used extensively in Game Five. While both teams have a days’ rest, the Astros still have a huge edge in relief pitching.  The Astros are now the confident ones, winning two straight on the road, and playing against a pitcher they have had recent success with.  I expect a gutsy game from Wheeler and the Phillies, but it will be skill and experience over emotion again.  Take the Astros to finish the Phillies off on Saturday.

Tennessee is the definition of a “public underdog” this week. I will look to take advantage of that perception and fade the undefeated Volunteers in this spot as they visit fellow unbeaten, and reigning national champion, Georgia.

We all know that Tennessee’s offense has been great in 2022. But when they faced Georgia last year, things did not go so well. QB Hendon Hooker averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt (he’s averaging 10.6 YPA this season, for a frame of reference) and the Vols lost 41-17.

Georgia did lose a great deal of production to the NFL, but they remain quite strong on the defensive side of the ball. They are fourth nationally in success rate and fifth in EPA. Opposing offenses average only 4.6 yards per play against them.

Look for Kirby Smart and the Georgia coaching staff to slow the tempo of this game way down. The Bulldogs are already bottom 25 in the country in tempo. They will look to play “keep away” from the Tennessee offense. 

The last time a top-two team was an underdog of at least eight points was Notre Dame in the 2020 ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish lost by 24 to Clemson. Georgia makes a statement here. 8*

UCF has definitely had Memphis’ number through the years, winning 14 of the 16 all-time matchups. But the last time the Golden Knights paid a visit to the Liberty Bowl, which was 2020, they lost an insane 50-49 game. For Memphis, that ended a 13-game losing streak to UCF!

UCF won last year at “The Bounce House” 24-7 as a two-point dog. They come into this year’s meeting off a thrilling 25-21 win over Cincinnati, ending their own long losing streak to the Bearcats. But that win came with a cost. Starter John Rhys Plumleee was knocked out of that game with a concussion. Backup Mikey Keene may have engineered a game-winning drive, but he’s a pretty clear downgrade from Plumlee. 

Even though they have lost three in a row, this is a great spot to take the points with Memphis, who is coming off a bye. Two of those three losses were by a total of three points, one of them a four overtime game. The other was a blown lead late against Houston that involved an onside kick. There probably is also no shame in losing by 10 at Tulane, who is #19 in the initial CFP rankings.

Tigers QB Seth Henigan has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and has played well this season.

No matter who ends up playing QB for UCF here, give me the points. Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog going back to 2017. 10*

UAB and UTSA are the last two C-USA Champions. UTSA won the conference last season and along the way picked up a crazy 34-31 win (at home) over UAB with the game-winning touchdown coming in the final minute on a tipped pass. Previous to that, the Roadrunners had lost four straight times to the Blazers. They have never won here in Birmingham.

Heading into November, UTSA is sitting pretty atop the C-USA standings. They are the only team without a conference loss. UAB is just 2-3 in league play as a number of extenuating circumstances have gone against them.

With QB Dylan Hopkins sidelined with a concussion, UAB has lost two in a row. They still should have beaten Western Kentucky (lost 20-17) and then outgained Florida Atlantic in a 24-17 defeat. Yet they could very well go off as a favorite here, just as they have been for every game this season.

Hopkins is questionable for Saturday, which would mean Jacob Zeno under center again. That combined with the fact UTSA is coming off a bye will lead many to believe the Roadrunners are the “right” side here. I disagree. UAB’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively, no matter who the QB is. I like RB DeWayne McBride (#1 in the nation in yards per game) a lot. The Blazers’ defense will be the best UTSA has seen this season, besides Texas. 

UAB is a very unfortunate 0-4 in one-score games this season. No team in the country has fallen further short of their postgame expected win total. UTSA on the other hand is 3-1 in one-score games including 31-27 over North Texas two weeks ago. I think this is a get right game for UAB, who is a perfect 11-0 ATS at home when off a loss. 10*

This is Nottingham Forest’s first season back in the Premier League since 1998-99 and, not surprisingly, they have struggled. Currently in last place, Forest is the only team without double digit points and their -20 goal differential is also a league worst.

But before the 5-0 thrashing they took from Arsenal last week, Forest had been a pretty decent defensive side. They’d held four straight opponents to 1 or 0 goals including a shock clean sheet win over Liverpool. 

Now the attack is poor. You’d have to go all the way back to September to find the last time Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal in a match. They scored only two goals over the course of six October fixtures. 

Forest has been tougher at home, which is where they’ve earned seven of their nine points this season. Brentford will be without star striker Ivan Toney. It’s bad enough that the Bees have scored only one goal in their previous three matches, that coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton. Over the last seven matches, they have scored a total of just four goals. 

Defensively, Brentford should be fine here. They’ve been a little unlucky when it comes to conceding on the road this year. But when they traveled to take on another promoted side, AFC Bournemouth, they allowed just seven shots and zero goals. 10*

Oregon State comes into Friday night ranked #23 in the country, but is a short underdog on the road to unranked Washington. Last season, the Beavers snapped a nine-game losing streak to the Huskies, winning 27-24 as 2.5-point favorites. Now they go for their first win in Seattle since 2008.

OSU opened 2022 with three straight wins and covers. But then they fell to both USC and Utah. No shame there as those are two of the 15 best teams in America. Since then, the Beavers have rallied for a second three-game win streak, albeit against Stanford, Washington State and Colorado.

Washington opened the season at 4-0 and was ranked in Top 25. They are also now 6-2 with the losses coming on the road to UCLA and Arizona State. The Huskies have been favored in every game. QB Michael Penix Jr leads the country in passing yards, but is likely to encounter some resistance here as OSU’s defense gives up only 230.6 passing yards/game. 

Oregon State’s offense is #1 in the conference in yards per pass attempt and #3 in rushing. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble moving the ball against a Washington defense that has allowed three of its last four opponents to score 39 or more.

Weather could be an issue here. But look for OSU to stop turning the ball over so much. They were -8 in TO’s in their two losses. Washington has forced just one turnover in its last four games. Take the points in a game where I've got the two teams rated pretty evenly. 10*

Following a 3-0 start to the year, Boston has dropped three of four - both SU and ATS. On Friday night, they’ll get a chance to avenge that first loss of the season, which came against Chicago. 

The Bulls have won four of six and tonight go for their first three-game win streak of the season. They have beaten both Brooklyn and Charlotte to start November, the former of which was also a win for me. 

In the first game vs. the Celtics, Chicago got to the free throw line quite a bit. They ended up going 26 of 29 from the charity stripe. I do not think they’ll be as productive there tonight. 

Having held their last two opponents below 100 points, the Bulls’ defense should keep them in this one. I expect a much lower scoring game than what we saw from these two teams on 10/24 - when they combined for 222 points.

That makes the Under a “no-brainer” in my eyes. The Under is 6-0 the last six times Chicago has faced a team that has a winning record. Boston has allowed just 94 and 107 points its last two games, excluding overtime. 8* 

The Sabres are firing on all cylinders on offense, with 18 goals scored in their last 3 games, all victories.  They are on the road and face a very good Hurricanes team fresh off an overtime victory against the Lightning.  Maybe too fresh, as the Canes are playing the second half of a back to back.

The Sabres lost both games against Carolina, but that was then.. This is a different Sabres club with an equal record to the Hurricanes.  They are 2nd in league offense, 3-1 to date on the road, and have the edge in special teams.  The odds-makers are slow in cottoning on to the Sabres, allowing for very favorable odds on Friday.  A win wouldn’t surprise me, but I am wagering on the Sabres to at least keep this one close.  Take Buffalo +1.5

This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass. 

These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet. 

UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG. 

UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. 

UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8*

 The Eagles, 3rd in points scored this year, have beaten 4 teams by 12 or more points this season.  The Texans have lost just once by more than Thursday's total points, but have yet to face a top 10 defense, let alone a team of the caliber of the Eagles.  The Raiders and the Chargers put up 30+ points against Houston, but neither team has as complete an offense as the Eagles.  Philadelphia does give up more rush yards and yards per attempt lately, their weakest spot on defense, but the Texans don't really have a run game.  The Texans could have an opportunity to pressure Hurts as they are 19th and improving in sacks, but Hurts and Co. could just run the ball down the Texans' throats all evening if they wanted.  the Texans gave up a whopping 314 rushing yards last week, and stand last in rush yards.  The Eagles, really, should be able to pass or run at will, and will likely have a huge time of possession advantage. As long as they show up to play, the Eagles should win and cover under the light on TNF.

Nothing like a bounce back co-operative no-hitter to inspire a bit of confidence for Houston.  Now in the Phillies' final home game of the series they run out Syndergaard, who had an average year throwing mainly soft stuff, but has been very good in brief appearances since mid-September. The Phillies will likely have a similar tactic on Thursday; anything over 3 or 4 innings will be a bonus.
Verlander has had a couple of ugly starts in the post season, each one after extended rest. He re-found his form after his dud against Seattle, giving up just 1 run over 6 innings against the Yankees.  Can he repeat in the same fashion after the Phillies roughed him up in game One?  His history would suggest it, although you've got to believe there will be a quicker response in moving to Plan B should he struggle early.
The Astros still have the better options post-starter on Thursday, and can better afford an early exit from a starter.  This one is a must-win situation for the Phillies, but the Astros are starting to get a good look at Philadelphia's relievers, and as good as the Phillies batters have been, they've had almost no success against Houston's pen.  Depth wins out over emotion in game 5.  Take the Astros to win again.

This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams.

The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year.

But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them.

Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. 

But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. 

Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. 

Once again, let’s take advantage of injury news and grab some value with an NBA underdog. Last night, it was Chicago getting it done for us with an outright win in Brooklyn. Tonight, Portland is going to be without Damian Lillard, but they are at home and I like them getting points vs. Memphis.

The Blazers did not have Lillard in the lineup last Friday, but still defeated the Houston Rockets by a score of 125-111. They’re well rested coming into Wednesday (four days off!) and are 5-1 SU on the season. 

Memphis is just 4-3 with the wins coming over New York, Houston, Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Grizzlies have been beaten twice by Utah and got blown out (by 41 points) in Dallas.

Ja Morant is having a strong start for the Grizz, but the problem for the team has been defense. Memphis has given up 120 or more points in five of the seven games so far, resulting in the worst defensive rating in the league. They miss Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for tonight, though I expect him to play. 

Yes, Memphis will be motivated by the back to back losses to Utah. Bettors will be tempted to lay a small number with a favorite hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. But Portland has the best record in the Western Conference and, when rested, can get the job done as a home dog. They beat the Grizzlies in three of the four regular season meetings last year. Take the points. 

Everyone's favorite cinderfella team was at it again, stunning the Astros with a 7-0 rout. At home again today, it is the Phillies' Nola vs Christian Javier.  Javier, the Astros' young right hander, was lights out vs the Rays over 6+ innings in his only postseason start as well as nearly perfect in September (0.40 ERA over 22 innings.)  Nola shut out the Astros down the stretch, and pitched very well in his first two postseason starts, allowing just 1 run.  He has struggled since against the Padres and Astros, allowing 11 runs, and 4 HR, in his last 9 innings.  Both bullpens are in very good shape after the extra day of rest and yesterday's blowout.  The Phillies, with the supposedly inferior pitching staff, keep making it work, and they also keep pounding out the long balls, but I don't think this series is done yet.  Nola's very poor pitching is troubling, and while he will be on a short leash today, the Astros will be all in after yesterday's poor performance.  Look for Javier to silence the Phillies' bats and crowd today, and the Astros big bats to speak out.  The Astros bullpen was, as usual, very good again yesterday.  Take the Astros to win.

Even though the Fall Classic now moves to Philadelphia, I feel the pendulum has swung in the Astros’ direction.  The Astros were 2nd in the league against left-handers and have hit them very hard as well in the postseason. They are a very good road team.  
McCullers Jr should be recovered from the champagne bottle incident.  He has otherwise been very sharp down the stretch with a shutout of the Phillies and another in the postseason over the Mariners.
Suarez who has replaced Syndergaard after the rain delay has been up and down in the post season.  He was thumped by the Astros at the tail end of the regular season. I n the postseason, he was wild in his first start, walking 5 in 3 innings, although allowing just 1 run.  He settled down in his second start, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings against the Padres, and has come out of the bullpen on two occasions since.  The Phillies will likely keep him on a short leash, but Suarez does have a solid upside. The Astros have the edge in the later innings.  While the Phillies bullpen has been overachieving in the post season, the Astros relievers have been exceptional all year.
Of all teams, the Astros will be least affected by the noise in C B Park, having faced the very vocal ire of the fans in every stadium they have visited for years.  The Astros pitchers have also shut down Harper to date in the series.  The Phillies have a terrific home playoff record, but face a very experienced team with a great and well rested pitcher on the mound.  Take the Astros to steal this one on the road.

The Nets have been a disaster at the betting window thus far, failing to cover in five straight and coming into Tuesday with a 1-6 ATS record on the season. This will be the second night of a back to back for them. Last night saw them defeat the Pacers 116-109 but just miss out on covering as 7.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, after dropping both games of a back to back, the Bulls have had two days to prepare for this game. They are potentially going to be short-handed though with LaVine, Dosunmu and White all listed as questionable. That’s in addition to both Drummond and Ball still being out.

But DeMar DeRozan will still be in the Bulls’ lineup and I think there’s still enough of a supporting cast around him (Vucevic, Caruso, Dragic) to get the job done. Certainly, Chicago should see improvement at the offensive end as the Nets can’t stop anybody right now. Brooklyn is third worst in the league in points allowed coming into Tuesday, giving up 120.3 per game. 

Last night’s win aside, the Nets just haven’t been very good so far this season. Them laying a short number at home in the second night of a back to back just feels like the oddsmakers are setting a trap. The Nets lack depth. This team is a horrible 13-37-1 ATS its last 51 home games. 8*

All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot. 

Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.

What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.

Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio.

Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10*

Bayern Munich has already clinched Group C by virtue of winning all five of its Champions League matches thus far. Inter Milan will be joining the German giants in the Round of 16 as they are guaranteed to finish second in the group by virtue of a win and a draw against Barcelona. 

So it’s basically just “pride” on the line in this final Group C fixture. I expect a cautious, perhaps even a downright conservative approach from both sides Tuesday. There’s just no incentive to “let loose” for either Bayer or Inter here, especially with big matches looming this weekend (in the respective domestic leagues) and various players getting ready for the World Cup as well. 

Bayern will be without Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez. That’s a lot of missing firepower.

Inter, who has won four straight in all competitions, has a pretty match in Serie A against Juventus this weekend. So there’s no reason for them to push it either. But expect goalkeeper Samir Handanovic to continue his fine form. Three of those four straight Inter victories have been clean sheets. 

Bayern has conceded only twice in its five CL matches. The first one with Inter was a 2-0 final. I can’t see this one being any more high-scoring. Play the Under. 9*

The Bengals offense is sizzling, showing huge improvement in their recent games.  They put up mammoth yards last week, and are top eight in points and Red zone offense, and top 2 in possession time and 3rd down conversions.  While they are running more successfully and getting more points from the rush offense, It is their passing game, as expected that is carrying the team.  Burrows has been a standout and isn't even sacked as often  lately.  In fact, using sack %, the Browns' QB Brissett has been sacked just as often in recent games.
The Browns' offense has slipped lately, down in some important categories including rush yards, 3re down conversion and sacks, 5 last week and 3 a game L3.  Jacoby Brissett had a very good game even with the sacks last week, but by and large he has been average or worse, with an average QB rating of 76 L3 games.
The Bengals' defense has been solid lately,terrific in the red zone, 2nd in time of possession, and 6th in points allowed,; all told they are a considerably better defense that their opponent.  Their rush defense is just middle of the pack, allowing Chubb some room to move, but the Browns won't keep up with the Bengals' high-powered offense by running the ball.  The Bengals are tough to move against in the air, and while they don't pressure passers at an elite level, they are much better at it than the Browns.  Imagine Burrow with time to play!
I am on the Bengals under the lights, especially now that a 3 point line is available.  Yes the Bengals will miss Chase, but the Browns are arguably the  worse off in terms of week 8 injuries.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

These teams just met on Saturday. Indiana was a 125-116 winner, thanks in no small part to rookie Bennedict Mathurin going for 32 points. The Pacers were 11 point underdogs as they won their second straight game.

Brooklyn has lost four in a row and five of six to open the season. In the words of their own head coach, the Nets have been a “disaster” defensively. In each of the last four defeats, an opposing player has gone for 30 or more points. Mathurian, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield combined to make 17 three-pointers Saturday.

I think the Nets are going to be extremely focused on the defensive end tonight as they are keenly aware of their previous lackluster efforts on that end of the floor. Plus, the Pacers are probably due to “cool off” a bit after hitting a combined 38 threes in the last two games.

Myles Turner did not suit up for Indiana on Saturday. With him in the lineup, the team is poised to be a lot better defensively. He is not on the injury report for Monday.

This is a really high total, a number that the teams barely cleared 48 hours ago. With Indiana unlikely to shoot as well as they did Saturday and (hopefully) a renewed commitment to defense from the Nets, Under is my call for tonight. Also, Brooklyn probably won’t shoot 50% from the field again. 10*

The Lakers stink. But because they are the Lakers and NBA’s lone remaining winless team, there are going to be bettors who want to keep playing them. I am here to tell you NOT to make that mistake!

Not only are the Lakers 0-5 straight up, but they are also 0-5 against the spread. They have been an underdog in four of those games and tonight will be their fifth time catching points. No team is worse when it comes to shooting from behind the three-point line. In fact, the Lakers’ current 28.3 3PT FG% would be sixth worst in league history over a single season.

Anthony Davis did not play on Friday when LA lost to Minnesota 111-102. He is hopeful to return this evening. Won’t matter though, Denver is simply the superior basketball team here.

The Nuggets have won four of five since a season-opening loss at Utah. The last time they lost, they led at half before falling apart down the stretch. By the way, Denver has already beaten the Lakers once this year, 110-99, and did so without the services of Michael Porter Jr (who is likely to play tonight). 

The Lakers are the worst offensive team in the league and just don’t have the firepower to stick with a team like Denver, who has averaged over 117 points in its last five games. Lay the points. 10* 

The Colts are on the road and facing an improved Commanders team off a big win last week.  Neither team puts many points on the board, and neither team gives up many against. Both defenses are top ten in applying pressure on passers, and almost equally bad in protecting their own QBs.  The Commanders have a pair of accomplished and complementary RBs, and are using them more each week.  The Colts have a recovering Jonathon Taylor, who has been seriously under-used when playing to date.  For whatever reason, the Colts are in the cellar in rushing categories, but that may change this week.  With a young QB who has yet to throw a pass in the NFL, the run game will likely be a huge part of the Colts offense on Sunday.
Heinicke was effective against the Packers last week, and seemed in synch with the Commanders top targets.  Ehlinger is a huge unknown this week.  The Colts are throwing him out there with no experience, not necessarily a recipe for success.
With a much improved defense, and an effective run game that matches up well against a Colts' defense that can be run on , and as a 3 point underdog, I like the Commanders' chances again this week.  Take the Commanders to win or stay close on Sunday.

It is all about the run on both sides of the ball for the Titans.  King Henry is most of the offense, but Tennessee isn't even close to having the best running stats.  The Titans run a very efficient offense, scoring more points with less yards.  Tannehill is out, and while he doesn't put up huge numbers, he has been accurate, effective and doesn't make many mistakes.  It remains to be seen how much the inclusion of Willis will affect the  Titans' offense management.  Willis will bring his own abilities.  He can run effectively, adding to an otherwise one-dimensional run offense.  
The Texans are en-mired in the depths of the NFL, averaging just 17 points and giving up 22, although the Raiders put up 38 last week.  They also have a fine running back in Pierce, but face a very tough Titans run defense that has limited teams to just 45 yards and few points in their last three games.  Mills could have some success in the air for Houston.  The Titans give up plenty of passing yards and points, but are physically very tough on passers with 60 pressures and 3 sacks per game on avg. Mills had his best game in week seven, but will likely have less time to operate this week.  He has been pretty average otherwise, with 5 picks to just 7 TDs, and a passer rating of 83.
The Texans possess arguably the worst rush defense in the league, and could be chewed up by Henry, and maybe Willis.  They are a better bet against the pass, but there may not be much of that this week from the Titans.  If this were just about any other team than the Texans, I would be worried for the Titans' chances, but with the loss of Tannehill, the Texans are now favored, and I just can't see that happening.  Take the Titans to cover.

So far this season the Cowboys' success is largely defense-driven.  That may change with Prescott back, but against a very tough Bears defense, I don't see Dallas as a huge scoring threat this week. For the Bears, their limited success is all about gaining on the ground and limiting the opposition's pass offense.  The Bears have the most rushing yards in the league; their  pair of running backs and a mobile QB in Fields put up a mighty 240 plus yards against the Patriots last week.  The Cowboys can also run the football, but will likely miss key performer Elliott to injury this week.
The Cowboys managed 24 points last week against a weak Lions Defense.  Their pass attack has been poor, but should improve as Prescott gets some reps.  Dallas has been very good at protecting their passer.  Not so the Bears.  Fields has been sacked or pressured the most in the league, part of the explanation for the Bears' woeful pass offense.
Both teams are very tough to score on, 2nd (Dallas) and 6th in the league.  The Bears' defense has improved over their last few games, and it is almost a toss-up as to which defense is better.  There is one huge caveat however, and that is passer pressure.  The Cowboys are tops in the league in sacks while the Bears don't really force passers much at all.
The Cowboys are 10 point favorites, and even with Prescott back I don't think Dallas will move the ball as easily as that line would suggest.  Look for the Bears' defense to slow the game down.  Their offense has been very good at staying on the field (62% last week), if not necessarily scoring points.  By necessity, this game should be run-first from both sides. Watch the Bears keep this one close enough to cover.

For the first time in quite a while, Arsenal will take the pitch not on top of the Premier League table. Manchester City moved one point ahead with a 1-0 win over Leicester City Saturday morning, but the Gunners now have their opportunity to move right back into first. They should as they are heavy favorites against Nottingham Forest, one of the three recently promoted sides for this season.

It’s actually top vs. bottom in this fixture. Forest will enter Sunday potentially all alone in last place, depending on how Wolves and Leeds fare Saturday. Regardless, we know Forest will be in the relegation zone and are likely to remain there after this match has concluded. Arsenal has not lost to a promoted side here at Emirates Stadium since 2010. 

The money line on Arsenal is unplayable at this price, however the total is offering value. It would surprise me to see the Gunners concede a goal here. They are tied for the second fewest goals allowed in the Premier League with just 11 while Forest has the second fewest goals scored this season with only 8. 

But Forest has stepped it up defensively of late, giving up just two goals in the last four matches and only one of them coming during open play. They posted a clean sheet last week against Liverpool (won 1-0!) 

Meanwhile, Arsenal has now failed to score more than one goal in five straight matches after going down 2-0 to PSV in the Europa League on Thursday. All signs points to this being a low-scoring match. Play the Under. 10*

After a wild ride in game one of the WS, The Astros are favored to bounce back. With both starters faltering early and multiple bullpen arms used, the Astros definitely have the better relief options in game 2. Wheeler starts for the Phillies. Since returning from a stretch on the IL, has has been exceptional, and that fine play has stretched into the post season. Wheeler has the potential to pitch late into the game today, and has his best stuff in years. The Philllies have more than “made do” with their bullpen through the post season.

Astros’ left handed starter Valdez had a fine season, but did struggle down the stretch for a couple of games. He also struggled seriously in the Astros’ WS run last year. The Phillies hit left-handers well all season, are getting fine offense, and have momentum on their side. That extra innings win may have rattled the Astros’ cage. This wouldn’t be the first time that the Astros have lost out in a WS run. Unexpectedly down after blowing a big lead is unsettling, but more to the point, the Phillies must win Wheeler’s start to have any chance of defeating the Astros over the series. I am going with the Phillies’ offense, momentum and emotion today. (deep breath here) Take the underdog Phillies to steal this game.

South Carolina is now ranked after wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Kentucky did not have its starting quarterback and A&M got itself into an early 17-0 hole. But even after being up three scores just a couple minutes into the game, the Gamecocks could not pull away last week. They were outgained by more than 100 yards. 

Missouri should have won at Florida and Auburn. They stayed within four points of Georgia. Last week saw them finally break back into the win column, beating Vanderbilt 17-14. As 14-point favorites in that game, the TIgers obviously didn’t cover. But now we’re getting them as underdogs.

There’s a lot to like about the Mizzou defense. Over the previous five games, they’ve allowed less than 100 points. No one has scored more than 26. 

The last three times these teams played, Missouri has gone 3-0 SU and ATS. They went off as the favorite each time. This will be the first time South Carolina has been favored over Missouri since 2016.

An obvious letdown spot for the Gamecocks after their first ever win over Texas A&M. They are 1-5 ATS L6 and 0-3 L3 as a ranked team. Missouri is better than its record and its defense can keep SC (just 286 yards last week) in check. Grab the points. 

California has been very good as an underdog under Justin Wilcox. The Bears have covered 17 of the 20 times they’ve gotten 7 points or more from the oddsmakers. Overall, Wilcox boasts a 23-9-1 ATS record when catching points. He’s won 13 of those games outright, covered four straight times as a home dog and three straight times as a double digit dog. 

His team covered last week as a dog, only losing by 7 to Washington. That was also here in Berkeley. Earlier in the day, Oregon posted its signature win of the season, holding off UCLA 45-30 in Eugene. Does that result make this a bit of a letdown spot for the Ducks? Probably.

Cal has lost three straight and four of five. But only one of those losses was by greater than seven points. 

Oregon’s pass defense also isn’t great. You may not have noticed with all the points the offense has put up. But I expect Cal to put a decent number of points on the board. In two previous road games, the Ducks allowed a combined 63 points. They lost their last trip into Berkeley (back in 2020). 

The Cal defense is not bad! They held Washington without a touchdown for two-and-a-half quarters last week. Grab the points.

Rice had a 5-game ATS win streak snapped last week. They still won the game, 42-41 at Louisiana Tech, but were 2.5-point favorites. It was the first time all season that the Owls were favored to defeat a FBS opponent. Yet surprisingly, they come into this game with Charlotte sporting a 4-3 SU record.

Now the Owls are favored again, only this time by three scores. If you can’t remember the last time Rice was a favorite of this size, let me help you out. It was last year against Texas Southern. They were -34 and only won 48-34. Before that, it was the 2018 season opener against Prairie View A&M. They were -19 and won just 31-28. It’s been a very long time since a Rice team was a favorite of this size over a non-FCS team.

So who is Rice playing this week? That would be Charlotte, who is coming off a loss to FIU that got their head coach fired. The 49ers were actually a double digit favorite last week (-14) but turned it over five times in the 34-15 loss. You can’t say a lot of positive things about this Charlotte team. But they do bring the element of surprise with a new head coach into this game.

Recently, we’ve seen several schools turn in inspired efforts following a coaching change. Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and WIsconsin all won their first games. All but Wisconsin were underdogs. 

But at the end of the day, this is a clear fade on Rice. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anybody. Not even Charlotte.

This is a rough spot for Syracuse, who last week suffered their first loss of the season (at Clemson) and also probably saw their ACC Championship hopes go out the window as well.

The Orange had been favored in five of their first six games. But still it was a surprise to see them 6-0 and ranked #14 in the country heading into Death Valley last week It was a close game they ended up losing 27-21, but it seems pertinent to mention that ‘Cuse got outgained 450-291 and was -10 in first downs. If not for four Clemson turnovers, it probably wouldn’t have been much of a game.

Notre Dame started the year ranked in the Top 5. However, three losses have them out of the Top 25  entirely. The Fighting Irish are the only team in the country to lose two different games as a double digit favorite (Marshall, Stanford). Their other loss came in the opener at Ohio State. Nothing wrong with that one. The Irish even led 10-7 at the half in Columbus. It was a four-point game late into the fourth quarter. 

In terms of margin of victory, last week was Notre Dame’s biggest win of the season. They beat UNLV 44-21. But they didn't cover the 26-point spread. Now as an underdog though, they are worth backing. The Fighting Irish are 12-3 ATS the last 15 games against Top 25 opponents, including 2-0 this season. Wins over North Carolina and BYU were more impressive than they look, just judging from the final score. 

This will be the first time these teams have played since 2003. I expect ND to run the ball effectively. Since the start of 2020, no team in the country has a better ATS road record than the Fighting Irish, who are 8-2. They have covered each of the last three times as a road underdog. 10*

TCU lucked out with Kansas State having to use three different quarterbacks last week. At home, the Horned Frogs battled back from a 28-10 deficit to get the win and cover as 3.5-point chalk. But this is going to be the sixth straight Saturday TCU has been on the field. Four of the previous five have been close. Can they stay undefeated? Possibly. But I don’t like them laying this many points in Morgantown. 

West Virginia, the last time they played in Morgantown, beat Baylor 43-40. That’s the only time they’ve played at Neyland Stadium since mid-September. This will be the first Saturday game in Morgantown since 9/17.  Things got bad in a 38-10 loss last week at Texas Tech. But I believe that sets us up to get a great value here on the Mountaineers. 

I know that the WVU defense isn’t great. But TCU’s offense is coming off a stretch of five games where they had to come from behind to win three different times. They are just the second team since 1996 to come back from a 17-point deficit in consecutive weeks against Top 25 opponents. 

Plus, I’ve got to mention all the backup quarterbacks the Horned Frogs have gotten to face. Each of their last four games have seen the opponents’ starting QB get injured! 

Sonny Dykes has traditionally not fared well when his teams are ranked, on the road and facing an unranked opponent. He is only 1-10 ATS in that spot. West Virginia is on a 4-1 ATS run vs. Top 25 teams. TCU has also lost the last four meetings to WVU and failed to cover six straight. 

New Orleans was kind to me in their last game as they pulled off the upset, beating Dallas 113-111 as five-point home underdogs. They did so without three starters - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones. 

Ingram is already listed as being OUT for Friday while the other two (Williamson, Jones) are questionable to play. A fourth starter, CJ McCollum, is also listed as questionable.

Going on the road to face Phoenix, who had the league’s best record last season (including a league-high 32 wins at home), I don’t expect the banged up Pelicans to have the kind of success they had at home Tuesday night. 

The Suns, like the Pelicans, are 3-1 with the one loss being a one-possession game. But they just throttled both the Clippers and Warriors, beating those two by a combined 46 points! The Suns are in peak form right now and healthy, so look for them to take care of the wounded Pelicans.

These teams met in the first round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix won the series in six games. With the starting five for New Orleans so banged up, this line definitely looks to be a little “short.” 10*

The Phillies are up against a very tough Astros team who have now won 9 straight.  With the change in pitchers, it is now Nola who starts game one. Nola faced the Astros at the end of the regular season, shutting them out over 6 innings, but he did have a couple of poor starts mixed in with the good in September, and the poor start against the Padres in the post season. Nola has been consistently good in the early innings, but this season his ERA has ballooned past the fourth. After two fine starts in the postseason, he struggled against the Padres with a poor 4 inning effort. He will have extra rest this time out.

.  He likely faces  Astros' ace Verlander, who has been dominant this season.  He had a very poor outing against the Mariners in his first postseason start, but he has sandwiched that appearance with a pair of quality ones, including a shutout of the Phillies down the stretch. Are the Astros just being coy about naming a starter? It doesn’t really matter. They have multiple fine options for a first game pitcher.

Based on the regular season, this one should be no contest.  The Astros' pitchers, starters and bullpen alike, have been almost unhittable in the postseason, however the Phillies have peaked at precisely the right moment.  They have a monster performer in Bryce Harper driving the offense,  a couple of other big boppers stepping up, and have hit 16 home runs in the post season.  It is a very short series and one or two hitters can make a huge difference. The Astros have multiple players with great production in the postseason, so their bats can’t be underestimated. With a very low total posted for the game, I am looking for a little more offense in game one. Take the over in this one.

This is a tough trip for East Carolina, heading West for a non-conference game. The last two weeks have seen the Pirates win a 4 OT game over Memphis and then clobber Central Florida. This will be the Pirates’ ninth straight game without a bye. How much are they going to have left in the tank? 

BYU, on the other hand, is desperate for a win. They have lost four of their six games and just got embarrassed 41-14 at Liberty. They have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive contests. 

By virtue of being an independent, BYU plays a tough schedule. So far they have faced Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas. ECU has played only one P5 team and that resulted in a one-point home loss to NC State. 

Because of Hurricane Ian rescheduling a game vs. USF, East Carolina has only had to play one true road game thus far. They lost it, 24-9 at Tulane. Don’t discount the high altitude at Provo as being a major factor tonight, in addition to this being a much further trip West than usual for the Pirates. 

Friday night would also seem to be an advantage for the home team. BYU is 5-0 ATS its last five Friday night contests while East Carolina is 1-9 ATS its previous 10. Lay the short number with the desperate home team. The Cougars need this one if they are to become bowl eligible. 10* 

The Devils are an improved team, especially on offense, but in the net it has been a bit of the "same ol'".  They've limited shots but not necessarily goals. Blackwood (.871 save%) was expected to start but may be injured, in which case it will be Vanacek, who has struggled to an .833 save% in net.  Their goals against have fluctuated wildly, but against the Avs, expect more rather than less today.  
The Avalanche are underachieving (for them) on offense to date, but have far too much firepower for this to continue.  They still have the best power play in the league, and have been good on the road so far.  Georgiev, today's likely net minder, has been solid in net, but the Avalanche give up a ton of chances and sport one of the worst PKs in the league at the moment.
Look for the Avs to break out on offense and the Devils to reply in kind, resulting in a relatively high-scoring affair.  I am on the over today. 9*!

Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them.

Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. 

Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. 

While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. 

So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10*

The Bucs may be playing at home, but after their recent performances, the reception may not be all that warm. There is a lot of fault finding going on and much of it is directed towards Brady. He certainly hasn’t stood out in recent games, this against pass defenses no better than the Ravens’. Considering how well protected he is, his stats are far from outstanding. While the Bucs are 6th in pass yards, their yards per attempt and per completion are well down in the leagues’ 20th rank. Brady has an average passer rating of just 87 in the last three games. Tampa Bay has no run game to speak of; they’ve only run on 21% of their plays L3, and are last in rushing yards and yards/attempt. Did I mention they are 26th in points scored?

As for the Ravens’ offense, they are 6th in points scored, and solid in converting third downs. While Jackson’s pass numbers are nothing special, he and the Baltimore backs have run very successfully. And while the offense is definitely run-first, the Ravens at least have a pass attack, decent in yards per attempt and completion, if low in total yards.

On defense, the Buccaneers are still 6th in pass yards allowed but have seen a regression in many defensive categories. They have been relatively easy to run on, horrible defending in the red zone, and seen points allowed climb to a high of 21 against the Panthers last week. Their Qb pressure figures have been good this season, but they managed only 1 sack last week.

As the Bucs’ defense has sunk, there has been a definite improvement in The Ravens’ defense in their last three games, especially in the red zone and in Qb pressure (5 sacks last week and an average of 4 L3 games). The are strong against the run should Tampa make the effort, and improving in pass defense.

I don’t foresee a huge improvement in the Buccaneers’ fortunes this week. The ravens’ offense does not match up well against the Buccaneers’ strengths. Both teams have injuries but Tampa really drew the short straw as far as missing starters goes. Gone too is some of that Buccaneers’ mystique. Losing to two of the worst teams back to back, a sullen and ineffective Brady, and nowevery opposing team out to kick them while they are down, doesn’t bode well for the near future. They say bad things come in threes. Look for another poor game from the Bucs. Take the Ravens on Thursday on Thursday night.

Brooklyn is now 1-3 straight up and against the spread after losing 110-99 last night in Milwaukee. That result worked for me as I had the Under (233), making it a 24-point winner on this end. The Nets were not so fortunate as their second-half defensive woes continued. This team was outscored 67-44 in the 2H by the Bucks, blowing a 12-point lead in the process.

That came on the heels of another terrible 2H performance in Memphis Monday night where the Nets gave up 70 points after the break and lost by 10. Notable is that the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo both scored the majority of their points in the 2H. Of the 81 points those two players scored against the Nets, 66 came after the break. So don’t be surprised if the Mavs’ Luka Doncic is able to pour it on late tonight.

Not even 37 points from both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving was enough for the Nets last night. Durant struggled against double teams the last time he faced Dallas, getting held to 23 points on 8 of 20 shooting. Irving did not play in that game (due to the vaccine mandate at the time) but his presence here may not be enough to turn the tide, considering 74 points from the Nets’ top two players was not enough against Milwaukee.

Dallas is 1-2 on the year, but should probably be 3-0 as they blew fourth quarter leads in both losses. They had a 22-point lead against Phoenix in the opening game while the Pelicans (another winner for me) hot shooting (57.9%) was too much to overcome Tuesday. 

Playing in the second night of a back to back, Brooklyn won’t shoot as well as New Orleans did against the Mavericks. This is the first back to back for the Nets this season. They are 11-17 ATS in this situation the previous two seasons and have already given up 130 or more points twice to start 2022-23. The Mavs are 5-2 SU the last 7 meetings with the Nets and are the better team right now. 10*

The Oilers are putting the puck in the net with considerable frequency, as expected, but are allowing over three goals a game on defense.  That recent 0-2 home loss against the Blues really stands out amid the usual 8 or more goal totals.  Blues' projected goaltender Binnington is 3-0 with a very sharp .944 save %.  Jack Campbell has started the bulk of the Oilers games and has a sub .900 save % to date.  The Blues are always tough to play against, and after their first loss of the season, could be particularly ornery.  Special teams will likely figure prominently.  The Blues have yet to yield a power play goal, but face the League's #2 power play.  The Blues are a slight underdog at home, but so far have had the answer to the Oilers' firepower.  Take the Blues to win.

The Bucks and Nets met in the playoffs two years ago with the former winning a seven-game series en route to a NBA Championship. Last year, both teams fell victim to eventual Eastern Conference Champions Boston.

The Bucks have played only two games so far and they won them both, 90-88 at Philadelphia and 125-105 over Houston. The latter result came here at home on Saturday. Not only was Milwaukee one of the last two teams to start the season, they’ve now been off for three days. So I don’t expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders in this game, especially without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton

It’s a small sample size, but the Bucks are only 19th in offensive efficiency. There have been no problems defensively however, as they rank #1 in efficiency. The team is also playing slower to start the year. 

Though Brooklyn has been a bit of a disaster defensively thus far, the above factors have me on the Under in this game. The Nets’ offensive numbers haven’t been that good and that’s just as big of a reason as why they come into tonight at 1-2 SU/ATS. The starting five has not played well together. 

Milwaukee has scored at least 120 in 9 of the last 11 regular season meetings with Brooklyn. But the Under is 10-3 the L13 meetings overall, including 6-1 in Milwaukee. This number is too high.

Barcelona’s motivation for Wednesday’s match will be greatly affected by Inter Milan’s result earlier in the day. If Inter defeats Viktoria Plzen (and you would expect they would), then Barca has no chance of progressing to the Round of 16. 

But nevertheless, I expect this to be a high-scoring match as Robert Lewandowski faces his former club. 

Bayern Munich has already booked its spot in the knockout stage by winning all of its four Champions League matches so far. They’ve scored a total of 13 goals in the four wins. Prior to a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim on Saturday in the Bundesliga, Bayern had scored four or more times in five of six matches overall. You’ve got to figure they are going to score at least two today.

It was a 2-0 Bayern win when they hosted Barcelona last month. But the underlying metrics say that Barca was a bit unlucky there as they created more big scoring chances and had a higher xG. Can’t see Lewandowski and company getting blanked at Camp Nou, regardless if they’ve still got a shot to move on in this competition or not. 

Bayern’s defense can be leaky, especially when away from home. They’ve also conceded twice in three of the last five matches overall. I like the Over here. 10* 

I’m going to go ahead and assume Zion Williamson (bruised him) plays tonight. Now the Pelicans are banged up beyond Williamson as Brandon Ingram is in concussion protocol while Herbert Jones hyperextended his knee. But CJ McCollum is more than ready to go and you can look for New Orleans to cover the spread at home tonight.

With McCollum leading the way, New Orleans  erased all of a 17-point fourth quarter deficit against the Jazz Saturday night. Eventually, the Pelicans went down in overtime, their first loss of the season. I had them plus the points against Brooklyn in the season opener and then they also beat Charlotte 124-112 for a 2-0 start.

Dallas probably feels it should be 2-0 as they let a 22-point lead slip away in their season opener against Phoenix. The Mavericks then got off to another great start against Memphis on Saturday, but this time didn’t allow their opponents back in it. The Mavs won 137-96.

With or without Williamson, I look for the Pelicans to control the paint in this matchup. They did not trail at any point in the first two games of the season. 10*

Celtic has had a pretty disastrous run so far in the Champions League, losing three of their four matches and earning one draw. Their -7 GD is among the worst in the competition (only three teams worse). But today, I think you can expect a much better showing from the Scottish standardbearers as they face the side they previously earned a draw with, Shakhtar Donetsk. 

If they are to have any hope of finishing third in the group and progressing to the Europa League knockout stage, Celtic must win here. I thought that they pretty clearly were the better side when they faced Shakhtar Donetsk the last time as they finished with substantial edges in xG, shots and touches in the penalty area. That draw in Poland really should have been a win.

Furthermore, Celtic are probably due to start scoring more here in the Champions League, considering they have created 5.5 xG in the previous four matches, but only found the back of the net twice. The opposite can be said for Shakhtar Donetsk, who have seven goals on 3.1 xG while also being outshot 88-33 in Champions League play. Six of those seven goals have come from inside the penalty area, despite only 15 shots on target. 

Celtic has dominated the Scottish Premiership, winning 10 of 11 matches this season, and they are a far better side than what they’ve shown so far in the Champions League. They definitely looked like the better side last time vs. Shakhtar Donetsk. Therefore, playing at home, I’ll call for them to get the full three points Tuesday. 10* 

Portland was pretty atrocious down the stretch last season, losing its last 11 games. But with a healthy Damian Lillard back in the lineup they have started the 2022-23 season with three consecutive wins and covers. I don’t like their chances tonight though, in the second night of a back to back, hosting Denver.

The Nuggets had a disappointing loss at Utah to open the season, but have since rallied to beat Golden State and Oklahoma City to make it a 2-1 SU start. Laying nine points, they failed to cover against the Thunder, winning just 122-117. That was the second night of a back to back though and the team still shot 52.6% from three-point range.

The final score against the Warriors was a bit misleading as well. Denver led that game virtually the whole way and was up 18 at halftime. They maintained a double digit lead through the third quarter before Golden State made a late run.

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has turned in back to back triple doubles for the Nuggets, who are also now getting key contributions from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, both of whom missed the entirety of last season due to injuries.

This is simply a great spot to fade Portland as they are off an emotional win over the Lakers last night where they trailed by seven with under two minutes left. Lay the points. 10* 

A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields.  Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date.  It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks.
The Patriots have put up points on offense, but have yet to face a good defense this season.  They have a pair of very good running backs, a top 5 O line and a middling pass attack under either QB. They may have some success in running against the Bears, but they will not have an easy time moving the ball in the air.  The Patriots have been good at staying on the field to date.  We'll see if that continues in week seven.  Both teams have been tough to put up points against, and I think that will continue on Monday.  Both teams will also run the ball; the Bears because they don't have a pass attack, and the Patriots to avoid Chicago's strength.
I don't see this game as the sure thing the odds would suggest.  Look for a slow game, on the ground, and a lower final score.  Go with the Bears and Patriots to go under.

West Ham is coming off a loss to Liverpool, but before that the Hammers had earned at least a point in six of seven fixtures including five in a row. The last two times they’ve failed to grab a point was a pair of 1-0 losses. They’ve now gone six matches in a row without conceding more than one goal.

Bournemouth had its own rather stunning six-match unbeaten run going, but took their first loss under interim boss Gary O’Neil, falling 1-0 to Southampton last week. Any time a newly promoted side is able to find itself in the middle of the table, they should be happy. But Bournemouth has largely overachieved to this point as it ranks dead last (by a wide margin) in the Premier League in xG. 

West Ham is tied for fifth in goals allowed this season and there’s nothing phony about that as they are also top five in expected goals allowed and shots on target per 90 minutes. So it would not be a surprise if Bournemouth failed to score a goal in this match.

But don’t look for West Ham to go wild scoring either. They have scored only nine goals in 11 EPL matches to this point. Just Wolves and Nottingham Forest have scored fewer. 

Bournemouth has failed to score a goal in six of its 11 EPL matches so far, including the last one. Back in September, they actually went four matches in a row without scoring a goal. I think this promises to be a rather “drab” affair. Play the Under. 10* 

Lance McCullers Jr. has the opportunity to close out the series vs. the Yankees in 4 straight games on Sunday.  He has tossed just 8 games this season and has given up 2 or less runs in 7 of them.  He didn't face the Yankees this season, always an advantage in the early going. He threw a gem against the Mariners in the last series, a 6 inning, 2 hit shutout.  Now if he can just stay away from the bottle.

Lefty Nestor Cortes is the Yankees' last hope.  He face the Astros in June, allowing three runs over five innings, and is particularly good in Yankee Stadium.  Cortes had two solid outings in the Cleveland series, but this will be his second start on short rest. 

There is unrest in the Yankees dugout, with players questioning Boone's decisions.  The Yankees' big bats have done nothing against brilliant Astros' pitching, and a four game sweep does not seem outside of probability. Houston is still in a better position as far as pitching goes, and it is all smooth sailing under the wise hands of Dusty Baker.  McCullers has an extra day's rest. It is the Astros' bats that have done the damage; the Yankees managed just 3 hits against 6 Astros pitchers on Saturday.

Take the Astros, a small underdog, to finish the Yankees in four.

The Broncos, the NFL's whipping boys, face the surprising young Jets at home this week.  Fresh off a big victory against the Packers, the Jets are a much improved club, not just since last year, but since the beginning of the season.  They have put close to double the points on the board than the Broncos over the last three weeks, and allowed less. NY is 8th vs 30th on offense in the red zone.  Their run game has improved dramatically this season.  Their defense over the last three weeks has been a match to a tough Broncos' defense, stronger against the run, and improving against the pass.
The Broncos will be without Wilson this week, and have struggled to protect their passer this season.  Their run game is average and has dropped off since the season's start, and they have been prone to turnovers.  The Broncos' strength is their pass defense; they are 5th in yards allowed, first in yards /completion, and have held passers to a minuscule 75 rating. Did I mention very tough on passers, with a 7.09 sack %?  They may have their hands full against the Jets' run game; the Broncos have allowed 130 yards a game/L3 even with an easy ride vs the Chargers' light run offense last week.  
I am on the Jets this week.  The lines are shifting with the news of Wilson's injury. Hop on this one early.

Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven.  The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB.  The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos.  The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games.  Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed.   The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer.  It could be a tough game for him.  The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower.  Take the under on Sunday. 9*!

The Week seven matchup between Detroit and Dallas features the return of Dak Prescott.  Rush was an indifferent fill in, and while the Cowboys stepped up their run game, they have struggled to score points, depending on a very tough defense for their present 4-2 record.  They gave up 26 points against the Eagles, but are otherwise close to the top in points allowed.  They have been reasonably tough to run against, but are very hard on the pass, limiting yards and yds/attempt. They have tenacious skills in pressuring the passer and sport an avg. opposing QB rating of just 78.
The Lions, on average, allow more points than the Cowboys have yet scored this year.  Their offense was very potent until Week Six, when they put no points on the board, and saw their offense stats plummet vs the Patriots.  The Cowboys' defense is a tougher match-up, so points for the Lions may again be scarce.  The Lions' defense is worst or close to in most defensive categories.  They have given up massive rush yards and are ugly across the board against the pass.  The Lions O-line has protected Goff well this season, but this may change on Sunday
Prescott probably couldn't have picked a better game to return.  The Lions don't pressure passers well, so he'll have time to kick out the rust.  The Cowboys are favored by just less than a TD.  Take the Cowboys to win going away and cover.

The Commanders are off a rare win, and with Wentz out, have a capable and more mobile replacement in Heinecke. Neither of these two teams put up a lot of points. Washington is 29th, and has averaged just 13 points L3. The Commmanders’ defense has limited teams to 17 points on average, getting good results with strong passer pressure figures and tough red line defense. They have developed their rush attack, running more often and with better success, but haven’t been able to protect their own passer, have a high number of turnovers, and a low passer rating.

Even with Rodgers at the helm, the Packers are not getting the job done on offense. They are still pass -centric, but Rodger’s targets are not of the usual Green Bay standard, and will be in short supply due to injury today. It has been more peckers than Packers, in the bird sense of the word. They are 27th in yards/completion, and middle of the pack in passing yards, low for a pass first offense. Rodgers has been sacked about as often as anyone, and the Packers turn the ball over an unacceptable number of times.

The Packers have the league’s top pas defense, severely limiting yards, and with a sack % of 9.5. This could be more of a run-first game today, the Packers by necessity and the Commanders by design. It is hard to be bullish on this year’s Commanders, but I like their chances today. They will be very tough on a weak Packers’ O line, limiting points again. Take the Commanders with the points today

Fresh off a manager change, Aston Villa will host Brentford Sunday morning in Premier League action. It was a 3-0 loss to Fulham on Thursday that led to Steven Gerrard’s departure. That leaves Villa level with Wolves, on goal differential and points, in the race to avoid relegation.

Brentford is well above the drop zone, in 10th position in the table, and they are coming off a 0-0 draw with Chelsea Wednesday. That’s a point the Bees will gladly take as they aim for a top half finish in the league, or maybe even top seven.

Only Wolves have scored fewer goals this season than Aston Villa, who has found the back of the net just seven times in its 11 matches. It was a dreadful match against Fulham to end Gerrard’s tenure with both an own goal and a penalty conceded. Villa finished the match with just 10-men on the pitch due to a red card. 

The one saving grace for Aston Villa is that their defense has been pretty good this season.

Brentford’s away form has not been all that strong and they are just 18th in the league in shots per match. So the play is Under here as I certainly can’t see three goals being scored in this one. 9*

You’ve all heard how much trouble Mississippi State has had scoring on Alabama in the past. Over the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have been held to single digits (9 pts or less) eight different times by the Crimson Tide defense. The most points MSU scored in any of those games was 24. 

But this isn’t the same Mississippi State offense nor is it the same Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide are wounded right now after losing 52-49 at Tennessee last week. MSU comes in averaging 35.4 points per game.

The Bulldogs also arrive in Tuscaloosa off a loss, 23-13 at Kentucky last week. But in each of the previous three games, they had scored 40 or more. In all five wins this season, they’ve scored at least 39. The two losses have been a different story, but with a generous spread this week, we’re not likely to need a 40-point effort to cover.

Alabama has already been in three games that came down to the final possession, all of them decided by four points or less. Then there’s this stat: Nine of Bama’s last 15 SEC games have been decided by single digits. That’s after the previous 53 saw just 9 such games. 

Saban is being overvalued off a loss here because of what he has done in the past. These teams are a closer than the spread would indicate. I’ve got the underdog comfortably staying within three touchdowns. 10*

Game Three in NY should be the Yankees' best opportunity to win a game, but that is not to say it is guaranteed to happen.  It says much about the Astros' pitching staff that Javier was left out of the post season starting rotation.  He was a phenom down the stretch and pitched extremely well vs. The Yankees this year.  This will be his first post season start, but he threw 11 innings of solid relief in the 2021 post season, plus an unimpressive inning earlier this year.  
Cole has been a steadying influence  for the Yankees and with 2 wins to date, has pitched very well in the post season.  He also pitched well against the Astros in the regular season.  
The serIes has been all about the pitching to date, and it may continue that way. Even with a days' rest for both bullpens, you still have to  favor the Astros' pen.  They have been better than the Yankees in low total games through the season, and were 10-5 in road low total games. Even on the road and in Yankee Stadium, I can't count the Astros out.  An okay run line is available for Saturday.  Take the Astro at + 1 1/2.

Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game.

UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game.

But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. 

Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye.

Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8*

Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games.

Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! 

The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities.

LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. 

LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8*

The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation.

The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here.

In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. 

Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. 

Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. 

Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8*

Chelsea and Manchester United lock horns in the biggest Premier League match on Saturday. This is a top five battle with resurgent Chelsea having gone unbeaten over their last matches (EPL + Champions League) and Man U doing the same over their last five. I like the Under today.

Key to Chelsea’s resurgence is they’ve gotten back to being stingy when it comes to conceding goals. Over the last five matches, the Blues haven’t conceded a single time and that includes a pair of wins over AC Milan in the Champions League. However, an attempt to make it six straight wins on the pitch was thwarted midweek when Chelsea had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Brentford.

Manchester United is coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Tottenham and they’ve now gone three straight matches without conceding a goal. However, they too recently played a goalless draw, last weekend against Newcastle United. 

So goals should be scarce in today’s fixture at Stamford Bridge. Both times these teams played last season, it ended in a 1-1 draw. That makes it four straight draws between the two storied sides. 

Chelsea has declined a bit offensively under Potter, creating fewer expected goals on target than before his arrival. With neither side having conceded anything of late, Under is the clear play here. 10* 

Cincinnati is 5-1 all-time vs. SMU and has won all three meetings here in Dallas. With those six games averaging just 53 points, the Under is a perfect 6-0. 

Because of injuries, this could be another low-scoring affair between these teams. But despite being off a bye, Cincinnati, who became the first ever “Group of Five” team to make the College Football Playoff last January, is far more banged up than SMU is entering Saturday.

QB Bryant is dealing with a concussion and may not play. WR Scott is also injured. RB Corey Kiner missed the last game and on the defensive side, LB Pace was “dinged up” after facing USF. 

Now after a season-opening loss at Arkansas, the Bearcats have climbed back into the Top 25 with five consecutive victories. But while four of those have come by double-digits, they’ve been far from dominant. 

In each of the last two games, the Cincy defense has needed a fourth down stop, deep in their own territory, to hold on for the victory. Against USF, who isn’t a good team, the Bearcats were actually trailing in the 4th quarter as a 26.5-point favorite. They were also able to pull away late against Indiana and Miami OH, the latter playing with a backup QB, in games that were closer than the final scores indicated.

Meanwhile, SMU suffered the ultimate “backdoor cover” last Friday against Navy, allowing a TD with just nine seconds left. The Mustangs still won mind you, 40-34, but as 12.5-point favorites it marked the fifth straight game where they failed to cover. 

The fact Cincinnati is off a bye means less with SMU having an extra day to prepare as well. 

The Bearcats have been very lucky so far in that their opponents are a FBS-worst 1 for 11 on fourth down attempts. SMU’s opponents are 11 of 18 on 4th down attempts. That “luck” is probably due to change.

Remember that Cincinnati lost three defensive backs from last year’s CFP squad to the NFL. SMU QB Mordecai is 11th in the FBS in passing yards and should exploit this secondary with or without WR Rice (missed practice on Wednesday).

Finally, Luke Fickell is just 7-12-1 on the road vs. fellow AAC teams. That includes 3-10 ATS as a favorite. Take the points. 10*

The Celtics put all the distractions surrounding Ime Udoka behind them and won on Opening Night, defeating the 76ers 126-117 as a five-point favorite. They shot 56.1% from the field and got 35 point games from both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It was a very nice start to the season for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs.

Can’t say the same for Miami, however, as the Heat were beaten 116-108 by a Chicago team that was a 7.5-point underdog. The thing is, Miami didn’t even play that poorly, aside from committing 19 turnovers. They just had no answer for DeMar DeRozan. 

Now they are set to face a much tougher opponent. Even at home, this short number is not enough for me to be interested in the Heat. Will Boston shoot as well as it did in the opener? Maybe not, but I still expect them to win this game. So I’m laying the points.

These teams played a seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals back in May. The Celtics have covered the number in five of their last six visits to Miami.

Malcolm Brogdon showed he can be a nice third scoring option for Boston as he went for 16 in the opener. The Celtics also did a good job defensively in the second half, limiting the 76ers to only 54 points. Miami will only go as far as Jimmy Butler carries them. Kyle Lowry was a no-show in the first game, shooting 1 of 7 including 0 of 5 from three. 10* 

It is Musgrove on the road vs Suarez in Game Three of the series. Musgrove has put his mid-season woes aside, pitched well down the stretch, and now has a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings in 3 post season starts. The Phillies got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings earlier in the season, but the Mets and Dodgers managed just a .152 ERA against him in his recent appearances.

Rangers Suarez starts for the Phillies. Suarez wasn’t as dominant this year, finishing at 10-7, with a 3.67 ERA, and struggled in his last regular season start, giving up 6 runs in 3 innings. He hs appeared once in the post season, pitching well but lasting only into the 4th inning. Given the packed nature of the series, the Phillies will need more innings out of Suarez today.

Both teams have been swatting the long ball in the post season; the Padres have a dozen and the Phillies, nine. The Padres have the better options once the starter is removed. I still believe the Phillies’ pen will come back to haunt them, starting today. I am on the Padres. They hit the Phillies’ pitchers especially hard yesterday, and it looks like the offense is starting to realize its full potential. Look for Musgrove to silence the crowd and the Padres to steal this game.

Temple was flat out embarrassed last Thursday night, losing at UCF by a score of 70-13. To say that was a shockingly bad performance by the Owls defense might be the understatement of the century. Consider that in the first five games, they’d surrendered less than 15 points/game! Luckily for this week, Temple faces a far less potent offense. 

Tulsa also got its doors blown off in its last game, losing at Navy 53-21. It was the third straight loss for the Golden Hurricane, whose only FBS win this season has been by three points over Northern Illinois. 

The Tulsa defense lost a lot from a season ago, namely nine starters and the coordinator. So it’s not a surprise to see them struggling on that side of the ball. As for Temple, I’m expecting a big bounce back from their previously stout defensive unit, which had been Top 15 in the country in yards per play allowed.

Now, led by QB EJ Warner (the son of Kurt), the Temple offense has been shaky to say the least. But Tulsa would have scored far fewer points themselves this season if not for tremendous red zone efficiency. Moving forward, the Golden Hurricane probably won’t be able to continue scoring TDs inside the 20 at the same rate they have been. 

I just don’t think that Tulsa is the kind of team that can cover a spread like this on the road. They are 0-3 ATS as favorites vs. FBS teams this season with two outright losses. Temple has the better ATS record on Friday nights through the years and is being undervalued in this spot because of the blowout loss it suffered last week. Take the points. 9*

The Saints and Cardinals, a pair of 2-4 underachievers, meet in Arizona in week 7. The Cardinals’ inability to score against a normally weak Seahawks defense last week was a bit of a surprise, although they are just 22nd in points scored, but no Tds against Seattle? The Saints put up 39 the week before. The Cardinals get Hopkins back, but lose Brown at the same time. Murray’s passer rating has averaged in the 80s and hit 64 last week. He did run well, but overall the Cardinals rush attack is exactly average.

The Saint have not struggled to score points this year, it is preventing them that has been the problem, with the 29th points allowed so far this season. This from a team defense that was expected to be top ten this year. The Saints don’t pressure passers much, but have had 13 sacks to date, and they got to Burrows 3 times last week. Arizona has struggled to protect Murray in the last three games, culminating in a 6 sack game in week 6. The Saints will need to be tougher on him and cause a few turnovers; those have been few a nd far between.

The Saints put up monster numbers with the run last week. Kamara has been hot but he isn’t their only option. They would be wise to stick to the running game. The pass attack was very poor last week. It is still unknown who will start on Thursday, but it probably won’t make that much difference.

The Cardinals have struggled at home, and far more resemble the late 2021 team than the early one. Hopkins is a gain but is not going to be a one-person savior of the Cardinals’ problem offense. The Saints still have injury issues on offense but have managed to put up points anyway. Look for them to win or keep this game close. Take the Saints +1 ½.

The Astros are up a game against the Yankees and send out left-hander Valdez today. Valdez struggled in two of his last 3 regular season starts before bouncing back with a five inning shut-out vs the Phillies. He faced the Yankees once this season, giving up three runs over 6 innings. Valdez held the Mariners to 2 runs over 5+ innings in his post season start, but struggled big time in 2021 post season.

Severino was tough down the stretch, giving up just 3 runs over 16 innings in his last three starts. He faced the Astros twice this season allowing 3 and 2 runs in a pair of 6 inning starts. He gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5+ innings to the Guardians in his post season start this year.

The Astros are hitting reasonably well, especially for power. The Yankees’ bats are underachieving to date but were very tough on left-handers this year. I lost (barely) on the over yesterday, but am back with it today. I expect both teams’ very potent offenses to have some success. Wager on the over.

The 76ers lost by nine up in Boston Tuesday, 126-117. They got solid contributions from James Harden and Joel Embiid, who combined for 61 points and 23 rebounds. Harden also had seven assists and went 12 for 12 from the FT line. But the rest of the team was “persona non grata” as the bench produced only 11 points.

At home, we should expect a far greater contribution from the Sixers’ supporting cast. Looking back, it was basically one bad quarter (the third) that did the team in against Boston. They outscored the Celtics (by one point) over the other three quarters.

This will be Milwaukee’s first game after going 0-5 in the preseason. Kris Middleton, their second best player, is out. That puts added pressure on Giannis Antetokounmpo. It wouldn’t be unlike the former MVP to step up, but he can’t do it all by himself and this is one of the top teams from the East that the Bucks are facing tonight.

Tuesday night saw Philadelphia get outscored on fastbreak points 24-2. That will not happen again. I also expect a better defensive effort after allowing the Celtics to shoot 56% from the floor. 10*

The Sixers have been very good at home the last two seasons, winning 61 of 90 games. Most of that is without Harden. Right now, they are a deeper (and better) team than the Bucks. Lay the points. 10*

New Orleans got off to a horrible start last year, but quickly turned things around and even earned the 8-seed by virtue of winning two games in the Play-In Tournament. They did so despite not getting a single game out of Zion Williamson, who is now back healthy and ready to start the 2022-23 campaign.

Brooklyn’s playoff stay was actually shorter than that of the Pelicans. The Nets were swept in the first round by Boston, ending a very disappointing run which saw Kyrie Irving miss a number of games. Kevin Durant wanted out in the offseason, but he and Irving are both set to return. So is Ben Simmons after an embarrassing end to the playoffs where he DNP in Game 4. 

I think things are going to get worse before they get better for Brooklyn. Durant wanted the coach and GM fired, but neither were and now everyone has to co-exist. We also don’t know how well Durant and Irving will play together.

The Pelicans have a solid starting five with Williamson back as CJ McCollum was a huge acquisition for this team last year. 

New Orleans can definitely score. They averaged 116.7 points over their final 26 regular season games, making them all the more enticing as an underdog in this spot. Grab the points. 8*

The two bye teams left standing meet in Houston for game 1 of the ALCS . The Astros are well rested, facing a tired Yankees team, and will start Verlander on regular rest. Verlander was uncharacteristically poor in his divisional start, lasting just 4 innings and giving up 6 runs. His previous start was a shut-out of the Phillies, and he was great down the stretch.

Tallon starts for the Yankees. He had a good September at 2-1, 3.23 ERA, but did give up 6 runs in 5+ innings against the Astros in June. He was also hit very hard in a bullpen appearance in post season action.

These are two hard-hitting offenses, and while they haven’t broken out in the play-offs, the total is still “pair of aces” low. I ‘m not betting on Taillon on Wednesday, and would like to see a little more of Verlander before counting on him for his usual stuff. The Astros will likely have multiple innings against a hard-worked and injury-ridden bullpen. The Yankees weren’t much for average in the post season, but have 9 home runs to date. Take the Yankees and Astros to go over in game one.

It has been a wild season for Appalachian State, who has won on a Hail Mary (Troy) and upset Texas A&M in College Station. But they’ve also come up just short after a wild fourth quarter vs. North Carolina and blew a 28-3 lead to James Madison. But fair to say the Mountaineers’ nadir came two Saturdays ago when they were upset at Texas State.

ASU was a 19-point favorite heading into San Marcos, but lost 36-24 with a head-scratching performance that saw them down by as many as 27 at one point. A pick-six by Texas State early in the second half all but sealed the result there. 

Despite outgaining Texas State, it ended up being App State’s second-lowest scoring game of the year. This is an offense that is averaging 35.2 points/game overall and 42.5 at home. I don’t think they’ll have any problems scoring on Georgia State tonight.

Georgia State began the year 0-4 with three of the losses coming at home. But the Pathers have turned it around with back to back wins, beating Army 31-14 and rival Georgia Southern 41-33. Since the opener against South Carolina, they’ve scored an average of 33 points/game.

The Over is a combined 7-5 for these teams in 2022 and has hit in three of the last four meetings. All three Overs saw 61 or more total points scored. Both these teams run the ball well and neither is particularly great defensively. I think this number is too low. Take the Over

It is rather stunning to see that Bournemouth has gone unbeaten in six straight matches following the manager change. The three results prior to the change saw the Cherries outscored 16-0 (by Man City, Arsenal & Liverpool) and while the season was still young, relegation looked inevitable. But two wins and four draws have this side, rather shockingly, 12th in the Premier League table!

As for Southampton, they do find themselves in the relegation zone, currently in 18th place after five straight matches without a win. The Saints did earn a point over the weekend, drawing 1-1 with West Ham, but only Bournemouth and Leicester City have worse goal differentials in the league.

Even with recent form being very different for the respective sides here, I still think it’s fair to say these are two of the weaker teams in the Premier League. I’m looking to the Under for Wednesday’s fixture. Is it concerning that Southampton has not kept a clean sheet in 16 consecutive matches, going back to last season? Yes. But the Saints have also scored only twice across their last five matches.

Plus, Bournemouth is dead last in xG among EPL teams, right below Southampton. I just don’t see a lot of goal scoring in this one.

Six times Bournemouth has been held to 1 or 0 goals this season. So coming off two straight two-goal efforts, regression is likely. Southampton has scored 1 or 0 goals in six of their last seven fixtures. Under is the call here. 10* 

The Lakers are obviously a much different team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. Both will be ready to go Tuesday night in the series opener vs. Golden State. Thus I’m taking the points.

In the 108 regular season games that James and Davis have played together, the Lakers have gone 75-33 straight up, a win percentage of .690. Only the Suns had a win percentage higher than .690 last season.

While James and Davis should be happy to see one another tonight, I don’t know how the Warriors can possibly navigate the situation with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Additionally, coach Steve Kerr has openly questioned his own team’s conditioning. Yesterday he was quoted as saying the starters are not ready to play 30+ minutes. That’s troublesome.

We know that the Lakers won’t have Dennis Schroeder and Russell Westbrook may not play either. Still, plus the points, I believe they are the play. A motivated James and Davis should be enough to cover this spread.

The Lakers massively underachieved last season and will be ready to play. Golden State is likely to be more concerned with the pregame ring ceremony and thus expect a flat start from them. 10*

The Phillies have gone 5-1 this postseason, eliminating the Cardinals in two games and the Braves in four. The Padres are 5-2 since the playoffs began, needing three games to eliminate the Mets before shocking the Dodgers in four. Neither club was expected to get this far. So the question is who wins Game 1 of the NLCS?

I like the Phillies tonight, behind Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been excellent this entire season, but especially over the last month where he’s allowed only four runs over his previous five starts. Only one start since the All-Star Break has seen Wheeler give up more than five hits. He’s also allowed only one home run over his last six starts.

Pitching against the Padres back in May, Wheeler went seven innings, allowed only four hits and didn’t give up a run. That was his one and only start against SD this year, but he is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in his career against them.

Yu Darvish also pitched in that series back in May. He too turned in seven scoreless frames. But then he faced the Phillies again in June and allowed three runs on seven hits. What has me worried about Darvish in this spot is the fact he’s already allowed four home runs in his two postseason starts. He’s very lucky that they were all solo shots and no more runs have been allowed. Darvish has now allowed at least one HR in four consecutive outings. 

I think the Phillies are the better team and have the better starting pitcher in this matchup. So I’ll back them in Game 1. 10*

We’ve reached the end of the first round of the MLS Playoffs with two spots still open in the quarterfinals. The last one goes to either FC Dallas or Minnesota United, who meet Monday night in the Metroplex. I am expecting the home side to move on.

Now it was the road team winning both matches in the regular season series, but the 3-0 win by Dallas at Minnesota on Labor Day Weekend seems more instructive for our purposes here today. Things may not be that one-sided tonight, but Dallas is pretty clearly the better team.

FC Dallas finished the regular season third in the Western Conference with a +11 GD. They surged into the playoffs by winning six of their last seven at home, two of those coming against LAFC and the Philadelphia Union, who are the two top teams in the league.

Minnesota United has a -3 GD for the year and needed to beat Vancouver in the final regular season match just to get into the playoffs. The Loons have recorded just four points since late August, a swoon that coincides with losing defender Bakaye Dibassy. Even more concerning is they’ve lost their last four away matches.

So back the better side (Dallas) here as the visitors (Minnesota) seem a bit lucky to even be in the playoffs. A pretty cheap price all things considered. 9*

A much healthier Chargers team meets a struggling Broncos side on MNF.  Wilson is playing hurt and has not shown well to say the least, stumbling out of week five with an ugly 54 passer rating.  The Broncos are 31st in points scored and 32nd in red zone scoring. They've put up some yards but haven't converted on third downs and have no finish. They are 26th in sacks allowed, including 4 last week.
The Broncos defense is nearly the polar opposite; 4th in points allowed and tops in defending in the red zone.  Their run defense is middle of the pack at 14th in rush yards allowed, and 20th in yds/carry, however that pass defense has been very tough on opposing QBs, allowing an average passer rating of just 78.
The Broncos have not yet faced a top level offense this season, but they will on Monday.  Herbert is just hitting his stride, but the curious thing about the Chargers offense was their run game last week, with a huge jump in rush plays and an astounding yards total.  A balance of run and pass will make the Chargers offense even more potent.  The Chargers have been very successful in protecting Herbert this season, and are tops in sacks allowed.  We will see if they can hold off a tough Denver pass defense with 17 sacks and 51 pressures to date.
The Chargers' main issue is defense; they've given up an average of 27 points a game and are just average defending in the red zone.   They allowed a ton of rushing yards in week 5 against Cleveland, but actually out-rushed the Browns in that game.  Wilson will likely have an easier game as the Chargers aren't huge on QB pressure.
The Broncos may limit the Chargers' offense to some degree, but I don't think they will be able to shut it down. Denver may have a modest improvement on offense against a generous Chargers defense, but the Broncos have a long way to climb back to a respectable level. Injuries are probably more severe on the Broncos side. Of note, the Broncos are just about the worst team in the league for penalties. Take the Chargers, at home, to win and cover.

With the Dodgers and the Braves now out, can the Yankees be the next juggernaut to fail?  The Guardians now have 2 kicks at the cat to win the series and are home in front of a delirious crowd today.   The Yankees' Cole returns on 4 days' rest, off a fine 6 inning 1 run performance in Game one. He has done it all before,  but has pitched past the 6th just once since August, and his ERA in the fifth and sixth innings is over 4.50.  His ERA on the road is a half run worse than in Yankee stadium.  The problem lies post-Cole as the Yankees bullpen is injured, weary and not what we have come to expect this year.  

Quantrill gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in Game one, but he was much better than that down the stretch.  He is 9-0 at home this year, and is a good candidate to bounce back today.  Game one was his first real appearance in the post season, and he can and will be on a shorter leash than Cole, with the Guardians' superlative bullpen behind him. 

The other advantage the Guardians have, beyond relief pitching, is coaching.  There is no one better than Francona in the pressure-filled post season. Boone made some questionable decisions yesterday.

The Bills face the Chiefs at Arrowhead coming in a 2.5 point favorite.  Sure, it is Mahomes vs. Allen, two "pretty good" passers, but defense will decide this game, and on that note the Bills have a huge edge.  Mahomes can maneuver his way out of most situations, but he may have his hands full on Sunday.  A lot of the Chiefs' defense is just being on the field more than the opposition.  While both pass defenses have solid pass pressure stats, the Bills do it with out blitzing much. Looking at other critical pass defense stats the Bills have a huge advantage, but none more explicit that opposing passer rating; the Bills are first with an avg. passer rating of 67, compared to KC's 105.  Buffalo has given up the least points to date, while the Chiefs struggle to 24th.  Rush defense stats for the Chiefs are curious. Nobody runs much against the Chiefs because they are usually playing catch-up. Last week the Raiders put up 155 yards, more than 70 over the Chiefs' average allowed.  The Chiefs are 31st in defending the red zone at this moment.
Home advantage aside, the Bills have known since last year who stands between them and a Super Bowl ring, and have made the critical steps on defense to match up very well against KC.  Take the Bills to win and cover.

The 49ers meet the run-happy Atlanta Falcons at home in week 6.  The Falcons run more than just about anyone and have had some success this season.  They are 4th in rushing yards, 8th in yards/attempt and 4th in rushing first downs.  They'd better be good as it is the only game in town.  The Falcons' pass attack is minimal; 30th in yards and completion %, with a 78 average passer rating.  Mariota has been sacked 12 times, 5 last week alone, with as many picks as TDs to date.  
The 49ers' defense are the Falcons' worst nightmare, with or without Bosa.  They've allowed the least rushing yards and yds/att. Not to mention that they crush pass offenses, are 1st in sack% and hold passers to a 72 rating.  Mariota and the Falcons' offense is likely in for a tough day.
The Falcons middling defense face a very tough 49ers' run game and an improving Garoppolo. He threw for 253 yards, 2 TDs and a 109 rating last week, and now faces an Atlanta pass defense that had no sacks in week 5.  This could be Garoppolo's day to shine.
I am absolutely all in on the 49ers this week.  Run, don't walk,and jump on SF to win and cover.

The Colts and Jaguars managed just 18 points combined on offense in Week Five. The good news is that the defenses allowed a total of just 21. The Colts are the worst team in points scored in the NFL. They are 27th in rushing yards and that was with Taylor playing in half the games. Now with two running backs out and a strong Jags’ run defense (6th in rushing yards, and 4th in yards/carry), the Colts will be relying on Ryan and the passing offense for points and yards. Ryan has been sacked at a 10% rate, has given up far too many interceptions, and the Colts are 31st in the league in fumbles. Ryan also faces a Jaguars’ pass defense that has limited opposing QBs to a 74 passer rating.

The Jags’ semi-rookie quarterback has had a couple of solid performances, but the last two were substandard. He threw for a year-high 286 yards, but poor pass completion % and untimely picks limited his effectiveness. He can’t blame QB pressure, as there really wasn’t much from the Texans. There will be a lot more trouble from the Colts’ defense in Week Six. The Jaguars were absolutely hopeless in the red zone last week.

The Jags’ run game has shown steady improvement and is now a legitimate two pronged threat, however they face a tough Colts’ run defense that is fourth in yards given up and second in yards/attempt. Two strong defenses, key injuries on both sides and lots of question marks in both offenses sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. Take the Jaguars and the Colts to go under on Sunday.

A top seven finisher last season, West Ham United’s 2022/23 campaign got off to a rather sluggish start. But both a strong showing in the Europa Conference League and back to back Premier League wins seemingly have the Hammers back on track. They come into Sunday level with three other sides at 10 points in the middle of the table.

Meanwhile, Southampton is in trouble. The Saints now find themselves in the relegation zone after four straight losses, three of which were to bottom half sides. They failed to score in three of those matches, including the most recent one, which was an ugly 4-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United.

It’s four straight wins in all competitions for West Ham, so these are very much two sides trending in opposite directions. Struggles are not new for Southampton as they’ve dropped 11 of 15 league games going back to the end of last year. Even with all three newly promoted sides struggling, it is going to be a challenge for the Saints to remain in the top flight next season.

Additionally, West Ham will be eager to end a winless run against Southampton, which is now at three straight including last year’s FA Cup. The better side at this price is a steal. 

Just to be safe though, let’s play West Ham on the goal line (just so a draw would be a push). 10* 

Going back to 2015, there have been 15 times where a team is 6-0 SU or better and getting points from a team with two or more losses. Those 15 teams have gone just 3-12 straight up. USC qualifies for the situation this week and, based on that history, I’m fading the Trojans in Salt Lake City.

Utah has taken two tough losses, to Florida and UCLA. Both were games where the Utes were favored on the road. At home though, they’ve lost just once in the last 12 tries. This is still a very good football team and obviously one you should respect, based on them being favored here.

USC has played a pretty light schedule so far with the only road games coming at Stanford and Oregon State. They were held to only 17 points and 359 total yards by Oregon State and were probably lucky to win that game. Even last week at the Coliseum, the 30-14 final over Washington State was a tad bit misleading. It was a three-point game deep into the third quarter but Wazzu’s special teams really betrayed them in that game.

Tough to win at Rice-Eccles at night and I just don’t see Utah losing for a third time as a favorite. Turnovers were a real killer against UCLA, but I don’t see that being a problem here. The Utes also have a great secondary, something a team needs to beat USC.

USC is just 3-12 ATS its last 15 games as a road underdog. That's the third worst in the FBS since 2015. Lay the points in this one. 9*

Clemson is #5 in the country while FSU is unranked, but this smells like an outright upset to me. 

Florida State was 4-0 before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks. The Seminoles actually owned the edge in yards per play in both games they lost and should have beaten NC State last week. A terrible decision by QB Travis to throw the ball into the end zone, while down two and in field goal range, resulted in an interception and cost the team the game.

Though Clemson is ranked #5 in the country and a perennial power, this doesn’t feel like the same Tigers’ team we saw during all those runs to the College Football Playoff. Remember they needed overtime to win at Wake Forest. It was a one-score game with NC State two weeks ago.

This sets up as a real “fade the public” type game as the majority of bets are on Clemson, but the number has come down (as of Thursday). Regardless of any further line movement, I’m backing the underdog here. 

FSU definitely should have won on the road last week. The chance to end a six-game losing streak to Clemson should have the ‘Noles extra fired up for this Saturday night home game. The defense has been every bit as good as Clemson’s this year while the offense is averaging a full yard per play more than the Tigers. Take the points. 10*

The Big 12’s two remaining unbeatens collide Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth as #15 TCU plays host to #7 Oklahoma State. My view is that the better team is getting points.

Now TCU is playing at home and we have to respect that. But OSU has covered six straight conference road games and beat the Horned Frogs last season by a score of 63-17 (in Stillwater). 

Both teams were involved in close games last week. Oklahoma State ended up beating an aggressive Texas Tech team 41-31 while TCU outlasted Kansas on the road, 38-31. There’s probably going to be a lot of points scored in this one. But look for the Pokes to score more. The TCU defense has been pretty bad when it comes to allowing explosive plays and OSU QB Sanders is completing over 50% of his pass attempts of 20+ yards.

This is a tougher spot for TCU, who goes from playing on the road (where ESPN College Gameday was present) to now playing its first ranked vs. ranked home game in five years. OSU is more accustomed to these games as they were on the cusp of the CFP last year and have averaged nine wins per season over the last decade for head coach Mike Gundy.

I don’t think TCU should be the favorite here, even with homefield advantage. OK State is the better team and has gone 16-2 SU over its last 18 games with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Gotta take the points here. 10*

The Braves are on the edge of an early exit on the road against the Phillies.  The ageless Charlie Morton starts today, but he has not fared well down the stretch.  The Phillies roughed him up for 6 runs in 4+ innings in late September.  He was luckier but no better against the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in another short start.  His road starts have been very poor with an ERA of 5.72.
Syndergaard pitched a single successful inning in relief in game 2.  His season since joining the Phillies has been very average with an ERA in the mid-fours, although he bounced back with 7 innings of shutout ball in a start and a a long relief effort in his last 2 appearances.
The Braves have an edge in offense and relief pitching, but just haven't shown it yet.  The Phillies have the momentum and the crowd, but I can't count the Braves out today.  Syndergaard is not the Thor of old, and Morton has struggled.  I still don't trust the Phillies pen, and they may have to be relied on for multiple innings.  Take the over today. 9*!

How the mighty have fallen! Oklahoma has lost three in a row for the first time since 1998 and they are 0-3 ATS in those three games, missing the spread by a combined 99 points!  Rarely do we see a three-game stretch like that where the oddsmakers got it so wrong.

So it may be surprising to some that OU is favored here over a Kansas team that was unbeaten going into last Saturday. But here me out, who would have ever thought the Sooners would be a single digit favorite in Norman against a team they’ve beaten 17 straight times? Oh, by the way, the Jayhawks just lost their starting QB. 

All of those 17 straight victories have been by double digits. The last seven times these teams have met, Oklahoma has been favored by at least 32 points. 

Now this is a better Kansas team than usual. But losing QB Daniels is a massive blow to their season. The Jayhawks’ defense also isn’t very good, having allowed a total of 148 points the last five games.

Oklahoma expects to have its starting QB Dillon Gabriel back on the field Saturday. That’s a big plus as the offense clearly struggled without him. I think this is a “get right” game for the Sooners and will lay the points. 10*

Navy is on a 3-0 ATS win streak coming into Friday, all of the covers coming as underdogs. Twice during that stretch, the Midshipmen have won outright. As a 17.5-point dog, they won at East Carolina 23-20. The following week saw them lose 13-10 at Air Force, but they got the cash as 14-point dogs. Last week saw the Middies double their season point total with a 53-21 beatdown of Tulsa in Annapolis. 

That was Navy’s highest scoring game since 2018. Now they head to SMU to face a Mustangs team that has lost three in a row and failed to cover four in a row. 

SMU was outscored 31-6 in the second half by Central Florida last week. Before that, there were losses to TCU and Maryland. As if things weren’t already bad enough, two players have decided to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season with the intention of hitting the transfer portal. 

These offenses are very different. We know what Navy likes to do as they are #1 in the country in rushing attempts per game. SMU prefers to “air it out” and leads the country in passing yards. 

I believe the key to this game will be Navy’s ability to keep the ball away from the SMU offense. The Mustangs defense has been unable to stop the run during the losing streak, giving up close to 200 rush yards per game. So how do you think they’ll fare against Navy? Too many points to pass up tonight. 10* 

It is Strider, the Braves’ young starter just back from the IL vs Nola, the Phillies veteran right-hander in Game three today. Nola has three shutouts in 4 games against the Braves, Astros and Cards in his last 4 starts. Nola has faced the Braves 4 times this year with mixed success, but has certainly come through down the stretch for the Phillies.

Strider has missed the better part of a month, but was dominant for the Braves, going 5-1 with an ERA of 1.71 in his last 7 starts. The only question is how long will he be able to pitch today?

The Braves have the edge on offense, and have an excellent road record. The Phillies’ bullpen has not been trust-worthy this year, nearly blowing a big lead in Game 1. As well as Nola has pitched down the stretch, the Braves have been able to get to him in the past, and the Phillies have had no success vs Strider. Take the Braves to win.

After a cancellation we will finally see  Game two of  the Cleveland New york series on Friday.  The Guardians have scored just four runs in three games, which may work against the Rays, but likely not vs. the Yankees.  It is doubtful if Cleveland will break out vs Yankees lefty Cortes, who has been very fine lately, at 3-1, 1.79/L7 games.  Cortes has thrown 13+ shutout innings in his last 2 starts, and gave up just 3 runs over 12+ innings against the Guardians this year.  The Guardians' offense drops to 28th in the league when facing a left-hander.
Bieber has been almost as good down the stretch as Cortes and pitched a very fine 1 run 7+ inning game in the wild card series.  Both teams have excellent bullpens; even with multiple injuries, the Yankees are still getting fine relief.
The Guardians are just 1-6 vs the Yankees, likely to become 1-7 on Friday.  At home and vs a right-hander, the Yankees have too much firepower to be denied.  Take the Yankees to win.

Will it be one step forward and two steps back, or has Fields made a legitimate step as a developing QB? The Bears have been a run-first offense to date, but Fields had his first good start of the season vs the Vikings, with personal highs in passing yards, completion %, and a passer rating of 118. He also ran successfully. The Bears’ passing offense until last week left much to be desired. The run game was limited last week but has been a strength, fifth in the league in yards to date, with Herbert, Montgomery and Fields all as viable options.

The Commanders’ offense is almost entirely about the pass; their run game is virtual nonexistent, which is a shame as the Bears struggle vs the run. Wentz threw for a ton of yards against the Titans last week, but results have been mixed in other games. He has been sacked 20 times this season and has thrown 6 interceptions to date, with just an 86 average passer rating.

The Commanders’ defense is middle of the pack to date against the run, and poor against the pass. The two teams are roughly equal in QB pressure, although the Commanders have more sacks. Washington doesn’t force very many turnovers, with just 1 interception to date. Other than last week against Cousins, the Bears’ pass offense has been impressive; 5 interceptions to date, 9th in pass yards allowed while limiting opposing passers to an 82 passer rating this season.

No one expected much of the Bears this year. They are undefeated at home, and for them it is definitely a case of the glass half full so far. More was expected of the Commanders, and there is turmoil around Wentz’s play in particular. Heads could roll if the Commanders lose this game. I am on the side of the young never-say-die Bears this week. Look for another home victory on TNF. 9*!

There are five Big 12 teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Baylor isn’t one of them, but they should be and I like the Bears laying a short number Thursday night in Morgantown.

Thus far, Baylor has taken a couple of tough losses at home, to BYU (overtime) and Oklahoma State. Those teams are a lot better than West Virginia, who may not even end up in a bowl this year as the Mountaineers are a solid candidate to finish last in the conference.

The WVU defense has allowed 38 or more points to three of the four FBS teams that they’ve faced. They’ve allowed 43.7 points/game in the three losses. Virginia Tech, a horrible offensive team, was the only FBS offense that the Mountaineers have been able to keep in check.

Baylor’s offense has been pretty good thus far, averaging 37.4 points/game. QB Shapen should have plenty of success through the air tonight against a bad WVU pass defense. Before running into OK State, the Bears’ defense had been getting the job done and I expect them to play well tonight. Baylor is 20-4-2 ATS off an ATS loss. 9*

This is a big game for Baylor, who has yet to win in Morgantown (0-5 all-time). But there’s a first time for everything and considering the state of West Virginia football right now, this seems like an obvious time for the Bears to get their first ever win here. WVU will also be without its leading rusher due to a concussion.

You probably don't know this, but Temple has been surprisingly strong on the defensive side of the ball. They rank Top 10 in the country in yards per play allowed! I believe the defense will keep the Owls in this game vs. UCF until the very end, so take the points.

If you only looked at the final score of Temple’s last game, you’d just assume they were dominated by Memphis as it ended up being a 24-3 loss. However, that’s not the case. The Owls shut Memphis out for more than a half with the first points allowed being a TD late in the third quarter. Two of Memphis’ TD drives began in Temple territory.

So as long as Temple’s offense takes better care of the football this week, count on them not giving up many points to UCF. For the season, they are allowing just 16.8 points/game and the most they’ve allowed to any one opponent is 30. With that kind of defense, it’s pretty crazy that we are getting more than three touchdowns here.

Now Temple’s offense is obviously not very good. But UCF was certainly struggling for a while there against SMU last week. The Golden Knights had just 10 points going into halftime before they caught fire coming out of the break. Despite winning 41-19, total yards were basically even in that game and SMU finished with seven more first downs.

UCF is not just 0-4 ATS following their previous four ATS wins, but they are also 0-5 ATS following a straight up win by 20 or more points. This is a good spot to fade them against what has been a surprisingly excellent defense. 10*

The big bats came through in game one of the Mariners and Astros match-up, hardly the tight pitching game that many expected.  The Mariners haven’t had success in Houston and pin their hopes on Luis Castillo today.  Left hander Valdez starts for the Astros.  Valdez had a fine start against the Phillies in his last appearance but was hit hard in his previous two appearances, giving up more than a run an inning.  Seattle has faced Valdez twice this season with modest success, scoring 6 runs, 3 in each game, over 11+ innings.  Valdez is better on the road with an ERA of more than 1 run higher in Houston.  He did not pitch well in the post season last year.
The same was true in Castillo’s last regular season starts; two poor starts followed by a strong outing.  Castillo then threw a 7+ inning shutout against the Jays, his first appearance in the post season.
Both these teams had very fine bullpens in the regular season, although the Mariners’ has struggled in the last couple of games.  The Mariners have, however, hit better than usual down the stretch.  Castillo is Seattle’s best chance to get a win against a very tough Houston side.  Look for him to pitch well again in his second career playoff start after a demoralizing Mariners’ loss in game one. Take Castillo to out-duel Valdez today, and the M's to win or stay close. I am taking the Mariners on the run line at +1 1/2.

A couple of very good veterans meet up in game with Darvish facing left hander Kershaw today.  Darvish threw off concerns about past playoff woes and tossed a gem against the Mets in the Wildcard series.  He was wickedly good in September with a 1.85 ERA for the month.  The Dodgers have seen a lot of Darvish this year, and he has been very good in three of the four starts, while struggling with a 5 run effort in an earlier start.  Darvish is better pitching at home and can struggle in the first inning, although we didn't see it in his last appearance vs the Dodgers resulting in a 7 inning 2 hit shutout.
Kershaw has been equally sharp, with an ERA of 1.59 in his last three starts, and hasn't given up more than 2 runs since returning from the IL in early August.  He has pitched under 130 innings this year, and is well rested, so we should see vintage Kershaw today.  He has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings against the Padres in two previous appearances this season.
The Dodgers were the league's leading offense this year, but weren't quite as dominant down the stretch.  They got to Clevinger early yesterday but were held in check by the Padres' pen.  The Dodgers have a fine bullpen, also well rested at the moment.  
I expect solid outings from both starters today. This could be Darvish's finest season if he can make a solid play off run, but it is hard to argue with Kershaw.  The Dodgers' bullpen is formidable and well rested. The Padres' relievers shut down the Dodgers last night, and Darvish can pitch for real length.  Take Game 2 to go under the total.

It’s an interesting Sun Belt matchup that we’ve got midweek as underachieving Louisiana travels to face a Marshall team that’s 0-3 ATS since their upset of Notre Dame. I’m going to lay the points with the Thundering Herd.

Louisiana has lost three in a row, two of them as favorites. They were 11.5 point favorites in a 33-21 loss at Rice where the offense gained only 275 yards. The following week saw the Ragin Cajuns go to LA Monroe and lose as 9.5-point favorites, 21-17, this time getting outgained by 65 yards. Two Saturdays ago, the Cajuns did cover, as 8.5-point underdogs, but they still lost 20-17 at home to South Alabama.

Now it’s back on the road facing a Marshall team that has an 83-10 scoring edge at home. Now both previous visitors to Huntington were FCS teams. But the Thundering Herd did beat Notre Dame. Louisiana has topped 24 points in only one game this season. Marshall has allowed more than 21 just once. 

This is a big revenge game for Marshall, who lost to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl last year, 36-21. This is a much worse Louisana team now though as Billy Napier left for Florida (the NO Bowl was the first game without him) and they had to replace half their starters, including QB, four OL and three LB. 

This is Marshall’s first year in the Sun Belt and they desperately want that first conference win after losing outright to Troy two games ago. The Herd have an excellent defense, one that shouldn’t give up many points to an anemic Louisiana offensive attack. The betting market seems to like the home team big and so do I. 10* Marshall

The Phillies' ace Wheeler  finished the season with a surge, then threw a fine  6 inning shut-out in his first taste of post season play. He has pitched very well against the Braves this season after  facing them 3 times.  His last appearance against them was a 7 inning 1 run gem.
Wheeler's opponent Wright was 21-5 this year.  He has pitched a lot of innings in his first full year, and his ERA and opposing batters' avg. has crept up slightly at the last.  He had a taste of the postseason last year, and has pitched well vs the Phillies this season.
Both teams are hitting well, but the Phillies have the momentum of a WC series win and a steal in the first game against the Braves. The Braves have one advantage on paper in this series; the bullpen.  The Phillies' bullpen has had some very good relief efforts down the stretch.  I like the Phillies chances of a lead as long as Wheeler is in the game, and am counting on the bullpen to keep things close.

If the Padres had success against the Mets this year, they haven't against the Dodgers. Nor are they great against left-handers.  No one has had much success against Urias lately.  He is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.52 in his last 7 starts. The entire pitching staff will be well rested, so post-Urias (he pitches usually for 5 or 6 innings), that killer LA bullpen should be ready to go.  The Padres' right-hander Clevinger has had mixed results of late; 4 of his last 6 starts are of the poor variety, allowing more than a run an inning in those appearances. He was roughed up by the Dodgers twice in September.  He gave up 7 home runs last month, and has an ERA nearly double on the road.
The Dodgers have had the best offense in the league this year, but they've struggled with the bats lately.  The Padres are actually outhitting them at the moment, however I expect the Dodgers to show their offensive stuff for the third straight time vs the Padres.
I suspect LA is on a mission this year, starting tomorrow.  The Dodgers are a large favorite, but this is the one game I feel safe in going on the run line.  Take the Dodgers -1 1/2.

The Mariners stunned the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, storming back from an early 8-1 deficit to take Game 2 by a score of 10-9 and thus sweep the series. But the Astros should prove to be a far greater challenge, particularly with Justin Verlander on the hill Tuesday. 

Houston won 106 games and finished with the best record in the American League. They are overwhelming favorites to advance here and Verlander is an ideal choice to start Game 1, based on his Cy Young-worthy campaign where he posted a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 29 starts. 

The Astros went 12-7 against the Mariners in the regular season and that includes a 5-1 record when Verlander started. Five of those six starts from Verlander were quality. The one that wasn’t came in Seattle.

Like Verlander, Seattle’s Game 1 starter (Logan Gilbert) has done an excellent job at getting out of jams and stranding baserunners. However, Gilbert seemed to overachieve in the regular season as his FIP and xERA were higher than what you’d want to see. Righties hit him better than lefties and the Astros lineup is righty-heavy.

Verlander is simply too good to fade here and the Astros are 55-26 at home. I expect them to get out to an early lead against Gilbert and also note the Astros are 42-13 in day games. 9*

Based on past results, a  win should be in cards for the Chiefs today.  Kansas City's offense is a different beast this year; equally competent, but much more time-consuming, with more short targets for Mahomes, and a well developed running game.  The Chiefs have been great in the red zone, and with the exception of last week, Mahomes has had solid protection.  Even against that tough Buccaneers pass offense, Mahomes was a wizard in avoidance, and had great success.  At home at Arrowhead, and against another AFC West opponent, I like their chances.  On defense, they have been great against the run, which is important against a Raiders' team who are having good success on the ground.  The KC pass defense has given up yards, a ton of them facing Brady last week, but they have managed solid passer pressure, and are 7th in sacks, against a Raiders' O-line with mixed success.
Carr has not flourished this year for the Raiders with an 83.4 average passer rating. Running back Josh Jacobs has been a bit of a revelation, especially last week. As noted, the Chiefs have been dominant against the run, and against a high-scoring Chiefs offense, the Raiders may not have the same opportunity to run so consistently. On defense, the Raiders haven't been big on QB pressure, with just 5 sacks, and are very poor to date defending in the red zone.  They are also the second most penalized team at the moment.
I like the Chiefs chances today.  Look for another big game from Mahomes et al, and watch them win and cover.

The Mets and Padres are the only team to go to a wild card third game. Both have solid starters on the mound, but unlike the other series, we have seen more runs scored than expected to date. Mets’ right-hander Bassitt has had a fine season for the Mets, but has had a few tough starts mixed in with the good stuff this year. One was against the Padres early in the season, although he bounced back nicely the next time he faced them. He was also roughed up by the Braves in his last start, giving up 4 runs in just 2+ innings.

Musgrove has been solid for the Padres down the stretch, giving up just one run in three home appearances, after some mixed results in August and early September. He face the Mets just once this year, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, not hi finest effort.

The Mets finally got the Padres monkey off their back last light, getting to the bullpen and putting up 7 runs. They are a very hot hitting team lately, and are tough on right-handed pitching. Honestly, this game could go either way tonight, however we have seen a steady diet of overs from both teams lately including games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for that trend to continue, and take the over.

The Eagles, looking for 5-0, are on the road facing the Cardinals. Murray and the Cardinals looked better in Week four, but face MUCH stiffer competition this week. The Cardinals losing 3 starters from their O-line to injury against the league’s toughest pass rush is hardly ideal.

The Eagles are better in almost every offensive and defensive category when compared to the Cardinals, and any categories where the Eagles showed weakness (as in Week one points allowed) they have addressed. They have controlled play in their games, are very good in the Red zone on both sides of the ball, and have been adaptable. Facing a tough pass rush last week, the Eagles produced monster yardage with the run game.

The most telling category for me is quarterback pressure. The Eagles, as noted, are first in sacks, and the Cardinals are 32nd. Allowing Hurts and Philadelphia’s very fine pass offense that kind of freedom is very dangerous. Against a stout Eagles defense, I don’t see Murray or the Arizona run offense having a comfortable game. Philadelphia at 6-0 seems like a distinct possibility. Take the Eagles to win and cover.