The Giants face the Eagles at home in the divisional round.  This should be no contest considering their respective positions in the standings, but I believe it will be a much closer game and here is why.  
-Jalen Hurts is playing but in all likelihood is not completely healthy, and I doubt he is capable of going all-in on Saturday. We have seen how the Eagles fare without Hurts, and he did not impress in week 18.
-The Giants are inspired by their situation. Daboll has their attention, and he and they seem to learn from their mistakes this season.  A case in point; the Giants lost to the Vikings in week 16.  Three weeks later, in the biggest of games, they roll out a win over Minnesota.
-As good as the Eagles are against the pass, they have been susceptible on the ground. The Giants moved the ball in week 18 missing Barkley and Jones. Look for much better results this week.
-It isn't just the Eagles offense that has struggled in recent games.  Phillie's offense lacks some of the lustre we saw earlier in the season. While their passer pressure has remained a constant, their passing yards allowed has crept up, along with all other pass categories not related to pressure.  The Giants' defense has shown general improvement down the stretch, as has the offense.

I don't expect Jones to pass for 300 yards this week, and I don't really expect the Giants to win outright, but a close game, decided by one score, is very likely.  Take the Giants, now a seven+ point underdog, with the points, as the Eagles are out-coached and held in check on Saturday.

Minnesota is coming off a 128-126 win over Toronto where they were five-point underdogs here at home. They go from that, to being a significant favorite here tonight against sorry Houston.

The T’wolves have already beaten the Rockets twice this season, by 12 and by 8. The larger margin of victory was here at home. 

Houston has not won a game since the day after Christmas! The losing streak hit 12 with their 122-117 home loss to Charlotte on Wednesday. They’d previously dropped four in a row on the road, three of those by 20 or more, while giving up an average of 133.8 points per game.

It gets even worse. The Rockets haven’t covered a spread since January 2nd. It’s eight straight ATS losses. 

On the road this season, the Rockets are 4-20 and being outscored by over 10 points/game. Play against them at all costs right now. 10*

It’s not too often that you can use “North Carolina” and “undervalued” in the same sentence, but I think that’s where we are at right now with the Tar Heels, who I believe are one of the Top 25 teams in America.

Over its L10 games, UNC has lost just twice, both on the road - at Pitt (by 2) and at #10 Virginia (by 6). Since losing to Virginia, Hubert Davis’ team has responded by winning twice, as they should have, as double digit favorites, beating Louisville and Boston College. 

This is a matchup where they are catching NC State in the second of two straight road games. The Wolfpack won at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but this is the first time all season that they’re playing two straight true road games. They’ve previously lost at Miami and Clemson. Last Saturday, they needed OT to defeat Miami at home in a revenge spot.

Remember that North Carolina entered this season ranked #1 in the polls! They are far more talented than what we saw back in November.

As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Tar Heels have covered five straight times. NC State is just 15-31 ATS the last three years in conference play. Lay it. 10*

The last really good team the Chiefs played was the Bengals and they lost. They beat the Chargers, the Jags' competition last week, by 3 points, and the rest of their recent competition hasn't been strong. This is a much better Jags team than the last time the Chiefs faced them and we are now looking at a 9 point spread. Lawrence has grown immensely as a passer and bounced back from some uncharacteristically poor play in the first halves of his last two games, so let us hope his jitters are behind him.  The weather will be been less than perfect on Saturday and the Jags have the edge in the run department, so a possible edge there. The Jags' O-line has protected Lawrence very well to date but the Chiefs are a voracious team when it comes to passer pressure. I expect a big game from Etienne on  Saturday.
Mahomes is Mahomes, but the Chiefs' record against the spread is not impressive.  This is too many points considering the Jags are on a huge and unexpected run against really tough odds this season. Look for a closer game that the line would suggest.  Take an inspired Jags team and the points.

The last team the 2-8 Canucks beat at home was the Avalanche.  Since then, the Avs have gone 4-2, and scored a ton of goals, especially in their last three games (17).  They are a solid road team and face a Canucks group that is struggling on and off the ice.  Considering their make-up, the Avs are surprisingly poor on offense this year, averaging just 3.1 goals a game, but they appear to be waking up lately.  They do have a better power play, and are a top ten defense.  The Canucks can put the puck in the net (3.4 goals/game), but their defense is a woeful 31st ranked, and they have the worst PK in the league.  It is hard to tell which net-minder will start for Vancouver, but both are usually exposed by poor defensive play. 

The Canucks have historically played well vs the Avs and have won both games so far this season.  Today's best bet is the Over, considering the Avalanches' recent scoring blitz and the Canucks' dependably poor defense and potent offense.

Miami has crept back up into the top six in the Eastern Conference and tonight will head to Dallas to face a team that’s top five out West. While the Heat have won 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 10, the Mavs are slipping; dropping five of six and three straight.

After their latest loss, which came here at home to the Atlanta Hawks by a score of 130-122, you have to figure Dallas is going to look to “buckle down” defensively. “It’s like a shootaround,” head coach Jason Kidd said of his team’s defense (or rather lack of it) in the last game.  

But rather than back the home team here, I’m going with the Under.

Miami is #2 in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up just 108.6 points/game. They’ve allowed fewer than 100 points in two of their last three games. 

In terms of pace, these are two of the slowest teams in the entire NBA. Dallas is 29th in pace while Miami is 24th. All signs point to this being a low-scoring game. 10*

Golden State goes from one NBA Finals rematch to another. Last night, they lost 121-118 in Boston, a rematch of last year’s Finals. Now they face a team that played in four consecutive Finals (2014-17), that being Cleveland. LeBron might now be long gone, but this current Cavaliers team is most certainly for real.

The Warriors found themselves on the wrong end of an 8-0 OT run last night in Boston. They are now just 5-18 on the road. Having to play again on the road, in the second night of a back to back, after blowing a double digit second half lead, is a tough spot.

Given the way this line is moving, I suspect the Warriors may be giving someone the night off. In the second game of six previous road back to backs, we’ve seen them elect to rest one or multiple starters. They did beat Washington 127-118 in an identical situation Monday. But the five previous times saw them lose by an average of more than 20 points/game.

Furthermore, this will be Golden State’s fifth straight game on the road.

Cleveland is 19-4 SU/16-7 ATS at home this season. They are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Even if Donovan Mitchell (questionable) can’t play here, I believe the Cavs take care of business and snap a 14-game losing streak to the Warriors. Lay it! 10*

We turn to the NEC (Northeast Conference) for today’s Best Bet. Believe it or not, I’ve already cashed a Game of the Month in this Conference here in January, betting Fairleigh Dickinson (1st place team) against St. Francis (NY).

Here we’ve got Wagner, laying just a short number, hosting a Central Connecticut State team that is among the very worst in the country. I have no hesitation in playing the favorite here. 

Wagner just stopped a three-game win streak earlier this week (Monday) with a 62-57 win at Merrimack as two-point underdogs. Prior to that, the Seahawks had failed to cash eight in a row. That’s why we’re able to get them at such a cheap price tonight.

Now laying points with a team that’s 1-8 ATS over its last nine lined games may seem like a dicey proposition. But, as stated earlier, C Conn St is one of the worst teams in the country. Currently #327 at KenPom (out of 363 teams), the Blue Devils have won just four games all season and three of those were at home.

In their last two games, we’ve seen C Conn State lose by scoring only 49 and then by giving 88 points. They are 1-10 SU when playing away from home and losing by a substantial margin (double digits in true road games). Lay it! 10* 

The Stars are doing the western swing this week and meet up with the Kings on Thursday night. The 6-4 Kings are a solid home team and are very well rested, playing just 2 games in the last week. Dallas, 4-3 L7, is normally very good on the road, but will play it's 3rd game in 4 nights.  The home team has won 5 straight in recent history.  The Stars have a firm statistical edge, but haven't been quite as overpowering lately.  They will likely start a seldom used Wedgewood in net.  He has been uneven when he has played this year.  The Kings will likely counter with Copely, who has been a pleasant surprise this year,  winning 10 of his last 12 starts.
Dallas lost to the cellar-swelling Sharks on Wednesday.  They've played a lot of hockey in the last few days and face much stiffer opposition on Thursday.  I will take the better rested Kings to win at home.

You can watch this one on TNT. After essentially “punting” on the game in San Antonio Tuesday, the Nets should bounce back here against a Phoenix team that’s even more short-handed.

Already without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving did not play against the Spurs. The result was an embarrassing 106-98 loss to what I consider to be the worst team in the league.

Since Durant went down, the Nets’ offensive numbers have gone in the toilet. They’re averaging fewer than 100 points over the last three contests. But Irving is probable to go here. 

We don’t know exactly who WON’T be going for Phoenix. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, Josk Okogie and Landry Shamet are all on the injured list. But of the seven, only Paul and Johnson have a chance of playing here. 

The Suns have won just once in their last 10 games and this is the first game back home after a four-game trip, a spot we typically see teams struggle in. 10*

Gonzaga can certainly score at will as we saw on Saturday when they dropped 115 points on poor Portland and won by 40. That was the third time in the last month the Zags hit the century mark and fourth if you include a non-board game vs. Eastern Oregon. They are #1 in the country, averaging 86.9 PPG. 

But, it was just last Thursday where we saw the Under hit in a game between Gonzaga and BYU. I think that tonight Loyola Marymount can keep Gonzaga’s scoring in relative check.

Now LMU scored 98 themselves in a win over San Diego last Saturday. Certainly, points are to be expected here. But this number is high. In fact it’s the largest O/U for any LMU game so far this season. 

With the opponent and the Over being 6-0 in Lions’ road games, I understand there may be some trepidation in playing this Under. But be aware that not only did Gonzaga go Under vs. BYU, but also the two games before as well. None of the three saw more than 157 total pts scored. 

The game vs. San Diego was also LMU’s highest scoring of the season so far. There’s value here in the Under. 10*

Delaware looks to halt a two-game losing skid here as it hosts William & Mary in Thursday night CAA action. The good news (for the Blue Hens) is they’re back home. The two straight losses both came on the road, at Hofstra and at Northeastern, the latter by just a single point in a game they led by 12 at the half. 

Now the Blue Hens have been without Jameer Nelson Jr for the last four games and are just 1-3 with the lone win coming against Towson. Nelson is questionable to return here, but I still like the home team regardless. Note all three losses without Nelson came on the road. 

William & Mary is also off a loss, and a humbling one at that, as they were beaten 82-54 at Charleston. Now there’s no shame in losing to a team that’s 19-1 and the “flag bearer” for your conference. But getting beat by 28 is another thing entirely. 

Going back to the start of December. W&M is 5-6 SU overall. But three of the wins came by three points or less and another was over a non-DI team. All five losses, meanwhile, were by double digits.

With or without Nelson, look for the Blue Hens to blow out the Tribe. 10* 

Remember when Atlanta drafted Luka Doncic, then immediately traded him to Dallas in exchange for Trae Young? OOPS! The Hawks probably regret that move, this season more than ever, as Doncic is putting in a MVP-caliber season while Young has seemingly lost the ability to shoot from three.

There are 35 NBA players that have attempted at least 250 three-pointers this season. Young is 33rd in 3PT% (at 32.5).

Now the Hawks do come into Dallas on a three-game win streak. They beat Indiana, Toronto and Miami over a four-day stretch, the first two coming on the road. But the only other time this season that the Hawks found themselves on a three-game win streak, they went out and lost the next game, by six at Utah.

Dallas should be glad to be back home after a five-game road trip where they went 1-4. They are 16-6 SU at home and while only 8-11-3 ATS, this is a short number that I’m not really worried about.

The Mavs have won & covered each of the last three times they’ve been off back to back losses. Only once all season have they lost more than two in a row. 10* 

For this A-10 matchup, we’ve got two teams that have been covering the spread quite a bit lately. Duquesne is 7-1 ATS its last eight games, the only non-cover coming against Dayton where the Dukes were eight-point road underdogs and lost by 12. St. Bonaventure is 4-1 ATS over its last five games, also winning three of those straight up.

Obviously, the Bonnies have been the less successful team overall this year, but they come into this one sporting an 8-1 SU record at home. They are also 8-1 ATS here. The lone home loss came back on 12/13 to Florida Gulf Coast, as a 3.5-point favorite. 

Saturday saw the Bonnies defeat Richmond, 71-63, as they outscored their opponents 48-34 in the second half. 

I don’t like this spot at all for Duquesne as they are playing a third straight road game. They lost at Richmond the previous Saturday before winning at St. Joe’s last Wednesday.

Despite the rest advantage, the Dukes face a daunting task trying to win here at the Reilly Center. They opened as the favorite, something I disagree with, considering they have just one true road win. St. Bonaventure also holds teams to an average of 62.8 points and 40.2% shooting here at home. 8* 

WVU is DESPERATE for a win tonight. The Mountaineers are 0-5 to start Big 12 play, which was tied for last (until Texas Tech lost Tuesday). But they’ve been in almost every game, save for the one against Kansas. The other four conference losses have all been by seven points or less.

Saturday saw West Virginia lose by one at Oklahoma. They at least got the cover, as 3.5 point underdogs, when Seth Wilson made a “meaningless” three right before the buzzer. 

TCU is probably feeling pretty good about itself after smashing Kansas State over the weekend. But this looks like a bit of a letdown spot for a Horned Frogs team that is just 5-10 SU off a conference win the last three seasons.

West Virginia has one of the best home court advantages in the country, yet has lost two straight in Morgantown. Can’t see them losing three straight.

TCU’s three-point shooting issues (below 29% for the season) become a problem more so on the road. WVU is 9-1 SU as a favorite this year and I’m laying the short number here. 10*

Yes, Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant. But if there’s a worse team in the NBA than San Antonio, I’m not aware of them. The Spurs have been outscored by 9.1 points/game (worst in the league), 8.7 points per 100 possession (29th out of 30), own the worst defensive rating and are 28th on offense.

Overall, the Spurs have dropped five straight and eight of nine coming into Tuesday.

The Nets have lost two in a row without Durant, but held the lead going into the 4Q Sunday vs. OKC. They were ultimately doomed by shooting 29% from three. 

But this has “get right game” written all over it for Brooklyn, who beat the Spurs by 36 earlier this month. Durant did have 25 points in that win, but also played just 29 minutes. 

The Nets still have Kyrie Irving and also got 23 points from Seth Curry off the bench on Sunday. Two other starters finished in double figures. There’s enough firepower on hand to beat the lowly Spurs. 10*

The Leafs haven't exactly come out of the Holiday break on fire, but they are very hard to beat at home.  The Panthers won on the road on Monday but that is not common; Florida struggles in back-to-backs and on the road this season.  Toronto has a top ten offense but also play a disciplined defensive style and are giving up just 2.6 goals a game.  Add solid goal tending, and they are a tough out .  The Panthers can match the Leafs on offense but Toronto has a considerable advantage on defense and special teams.

With Knight on the IL, Florida had to reach a bit, and dug up likely start Lyon in net, who hasn't played in the NHL this year.  Murray is expected in net for the Leafs.  He was beaten by the Bruins in his last start, but was admirable in his previous two appearances (.970 and .944. save %)

The Leafs have had a couple of days off to regroup, and Tuesday's game, against a tired Panthers team, is a fine opportunity to bounce back.  Take the Leafs to win at home.

Valparaiso is not having a good season. The BEACONS are just 1-7 in Missouri Valley games. But so are their Tuesday opponents, UIC. The difference here is Valpo is coming off its first conference win while UIC has lost five in a row.

The Beacons beat Evansville, who are the worst team in the MVC. But UIC isn’t much better. The Flames may play fast (84th in tempo), but they aren’t efficient on offense (325th). The defense isn’t any good either (206th). 

Five of UIC’s seven conference losses have been by at least 13 points. The two that weren’t both came at home. 

Being at home tonight should motivate Valpo. They haven’t won here since 12/21. Saturday’s win was at Evansville.

Valpo is probably in store for some positive regression in terms of three-point shooting. They are below 30% from the year. It’s hard to imagine staying that bad for a full season. 10*

Even after a sub .500 season it is hard to go against Brady and the Bucs.  It would be easier if Prescott were playing a little better.  A few things stand out in this match-up.  As noted in the media, the Cowboys  a. haven't won in a quite a while against the Bucs, b. don't play well on real grass, and c. Tampa, while losing more than winning this season, are above .500 at home.

The Cowboys have gotten away from their running game lately; the Bucs who are last in the league in rush yards for the season, have put up just as many yards as Dallas lately. The Bucs seldom run the ball, but did against the Cowboys in their first game and again against the Seahawks, two of their best performances this year.  The Cowboys are susceptible to the run, so it is a possibility we will see more from Fournette and the rush defense on Monday.  Brady has looked better connected to his targets, and might hold on to the ball a little longer with the season on the line. 

Prescott has no impressed at all in recent games, and it isn't just the picks he has thrown.  The offensive breakdown in a game that should have mattered last week is concerning.  Dallas could revert to the run, and should be able to move the ball vs Tampa, but in the end, given his history and his ability to move the ball when he needs to this season, I'm choosing Brady over Prescott.  Tampa is as healthy as they have been all season.  A mistake could decide this game, a pick or an interception, and it is more likely to come from Dallas. Take Tampa + the points.

FAU is 16-1 with the nation’s second longest win streak, but they have been a very lucky team so far, particularly of late. The Owls’ last five wins have all come by four points or less, four of them by that exact margin. I don’t think they can continue winning like this. 

Hosting North Texas on Saturday, Florida Atlantic trailed at the half. That was after needing overtime to get by FIU earlier in the week. 

Western Kentucky had been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, but the Hilltoppers have rallied for a three-game SU/ATS win streak, including an impressive victory at UAB. This despite HC Rick Stansbury being away from the team. 

FAU has not had an easy time winning at WKU through the years. They’ve dropped 9 of the previous 12 visits. Those were different teams obviously, but the Hilltoppers have always been a strong home team.

The only other time they’ve been a home dog this year, WKU pushed, losing by four to North Texas. This time they get the cover and I obviously give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset against a team that’s due to drop a game. 10*

Dallas, dynamite on the road, takes on a Golden Knights team that tends to struggle at home, just 2 games over .500 this season.  Stars' coach DeBoer will have his team especially motivated tonight, his first game back in Vegas after being fired by the club last season.  The Stars are 6-4, but off 2 straight close losses, are due for a rebound.  Vegas,  also 6-4, is still very depleted with injuries and faces a much healthier Stars team.  
Comparing offenses and defenses, the Stars have a decided edge, 7th in goals for and goals against, and 5th in PK and PP.  Vegas is just outside the top ten in all categories other than their solid 7th ranked PP.  Dallas has the edge in net as well.  The Knights' Thompson has lost 4 of his last 6 games.  Oettinger has been very good all season and brilliant in his last three games.
Dallas is an underdog today, somewhat surprising given the circumstances.  I believe it will be the Stars doing the firing today, on all cylinders, that is!  take the Dawg Stars to steal this one on the road.

Two teams headed in very different directions here. Phoenix is just 2-11 over its last 13 games and has covered the spread only two times in the last nine games. Memphis is on a nine-game win streak, during which they are 6-3 ATS.

But, surprisingly, this is a revenge spot for the Grizzlies. 

They lost to the Suns, here at home, 125-108 right after Christmas (12/27). That was after blowing the Suns out (in Phoenix) just four days earlier.

The Grizzlies are a devastating home team. Not only are they 18-3 at the FedExForum, but they are winning by an average of 10.8 points/game.

This is a depleted Suns roster with little chance of doing anything today. No Booker, Paul, Payne or Johnson. That wasn’t the case when they beat the Grizzlies last month. Memphis has scored 121 or more points in six straight games. Phoenix has failed to score 100 five of its last seven and has given up 123.5 PPG over its last two. Lay it. 10*

The Celtics and Hornets just played Friday. It was a rare loss for me, as I took the points, but Charlotte just didn’t have enough in the tank down the stretch. They did have a 16-point lead in the first half and were up at the break, only to be outscored 60-40 in the second half. This afternoon, I’ll be taking a different approach. 

There were 228 total points scored in Friday’s game, which was just shy of the total (closed 232.5). 

I am very confident that Boston will have no issue putting a bunch of points on the board in today’s game. Not only do they carry the #1 offensive rating in the league this season, but Charlotte has now allowed 121 or more points in three straight and six of its last eight games.

So, really, what this comes down to is: can the Hornets score enough? I think they will. They were a pretty woeful 8 of 27 from three on Friday, which is below their season percentage.

Boston attempted 53 threes on its own Friday. That’s a lot, but not out of the ordinary when facing Charlotte. They launched 52 3PA back in November vs. the Hornets and poured in 140 total points. Take the Over here. 8*

It is offense vs defense when the Bengals host the Ravens on Sunday.  Resting Andrews, Dobbins and others last week, the Ravens deserted their running game, with rookie QB Anthony Brown throwing for 270+ yards, not to mention 2 picks and an end zone fumble. Credit to the kid, he did appear to settle somewhat as the game went on, and it was surprisingly easy at times for the Ravens to move the ball.  It will likely be back to Huntley, Dobbins and the running game this week against a solid Bengals run and an average pass defense. Of note, the Bengals are susceptible to longer passing plays; the Ravens averaged over 14 yards per completion last week.
Burrow threw for just 200 yards, down considerably from average, especially considering all of the Ravens' turnovers.  He has struggled against the Ravens defense this year. Baltimore limited Burrow and targets to short gains and a poor completion rate, sacking him twice. The Bengals hardly ran the ball last week.
Look for the Ravens to eat up the clock on the ground, and hopefully not turn the ball over as often.  I don't think they have enough offense to put up many points, but I do think their fine defense can make it very tough on Burrow and the Bengals.  A Ravens win is not likely in the cards, but I'm wagering on the Baltimore to keep it close.  Take the Ravens plus the points.

The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB.  Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week.  Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week.  The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week.  Take Sunday's game to go under the total!

Denver sat Nikola Jokic on Friday and still beat the Clippers 115-103 on the road. So you have to like their chances here, at home against the lowly Magic, even with a large spread in play.

The Nuggets are tied (with Memphis) for the best record in the Western Conference right now at 29-13. They’ve won five in a row overall and covered the spread in four of the wins (with one push). Since 12/18, the team is 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS. 

At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have Orlando, who is a bottom five team in the NBA, although definitely better than the bottom four. The Magic are at the end of a five-game road trip and while things have gone surprisingly well so far (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), I think they’re ripe to get blown out tonight.

Jokic will play for the Nuggets and that’s obviously bad news for an Orlando team that carries a bottom 10 ranking both offensively and defensively. 

The Nuggets aren’t just winning games, they are crushing teams, outscoring the last five opponents by an average of 19.6 points/game. I have no problem laying this number Sunday night. 10*

One could probably make the case that BOTH of these Big 10 squads are a bit underrated at the moment. Ohio State and Rutgers each find themselves listed in the KenPom top 15, however neither are to be found in the AP or Coaches’ polls. 

Ohio State was in the Top 25 of those polls, but has dropped three straight relatively close decisions, including two when favored at home. I suppose there’s no shame in losing to Purdue, but losing as a 14.5-point favorite in Columbus to Minnesota was very bad for the Buckeyes.

The market seems to think this is a “must win” for OSU, but I’d be careful about that as Rutgers has lost just once over its last seven games (Iowa) and that was a game where the ShotQuality data suggested they probably should have won. A win here and you have to think the Scarlet Knights are in the “official” Top 25. 

What I like about this Rutgers team is their defense. They are #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, trailing only Tennessee and Houston. That’s a massive edge over Ohio State, who is 99th in defensive efficiency.

This is the second meeting of the year between these teams. Ohio State won the first, 67-66, but that was not without controversy as the Big 10 later admitted that the game-winning shot should not have counted. Look for Rutgers, who is 34-9 L43 home games, to exact revenge in this one. Lay the short number. 10* 

Gonzaga just escaped BYU with a 75-74 win, but did not cover as 6.5-point road favorites. That makes it an 0-3 ATS start to the New Year for the Zags, all of those games coming as single digit favorites on the road. 

I think it’s worth pointing out though that the three teams they just faced are all top five in the WCC.

Portland is NOT top five and that’s why the Zags are laying double digits here as they return home Saturday. The oddsmakers are expecting a blowout and so am I. 

So far Gonzaga has won all seven home games by an average of 28.1 points/game. This remains an elite offensive team that is 6th in the country in efficiency, not to mention shoots it at a 51.4% clip.

Portland is coming off a bit of a surprise result as they were two-point home underdogs at home in a 92-87 win vs. San Francisco. But the last time the Pilots hit the road, they were beaten soundly, by St. Mary’s 85-43 as 17-point underdogs. May not get quite that ugly here, but the Zags will roll. 10*

This will be an interesting match-up between two young QBs. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags got a taste of "lose and it is over" last week, and Lawrence did seem a little jittery vs. the Titans.  He has been a quick study in his brief history so far, and I think he will step up this week.  Etienne and the Jags' running game will be a deciding factor.  The Jags, unlike the Chargers, have some balance in their offense, and the Chargers REALLY struggle against the run.
The Chargers have a fine passer in Herbert, but they may be without Williams this week which takes a little of the juice out of their passing game.  They don't run much.  They could step that up but the Jags are tough vs the run.  The Jags defense, including their weak pass D, has improved as the season progressed. I believe it will be status quo for the Chargers pass-first offense. Can the Jags' pass defense handle Herbert and his targets?  They've averaged 3 sacks a week and have held passers to a 70 rating last three games, and an 89 rate for the season, just one point above LA's seasonal average.
The Chargers really haven't beaten anyone very impressive to get this far.  I am not sold on them as a wild card winner. The Jags have momentum, a little extra rest and have no expectations on them.  They will be at home in front of a delirious crowd.  Take the Jags to cover.  An outright win would not surprise me.

The surprising Kraken are rolling on the road, taking on all comers and winning 6 straight.  They are now 15-4 in away games after shutting out the mighty Bruins 3-0.  We have seen plenty of goal production from Seattle lately, with 4 or more, and a high of 8, in six of seven games.

The Blackhawks have won three straight games, likely their best stretch this season, but that streak ends tonight.  Seattle has a top three offense and a solid defense while facing a very poor Blackhawks' defense and the league's worst goal scorers.

Seattle's net-minder Jones has shut out the last two teams he has faced.  Look for Seattle to continue with a hot hand tonight.  The Kraken to win on the puck line at -1 1/2.

On paper, this looks like a big mismatch with the best team in the East (and probably the entire NBA) taking on the team with the worst record in the Conference.

Boston has been very impressive in rolling to a league-best 32-11 record. They come into the weekend riding a five-game win streak after defeating Brooklyn 109-98 Thursday.

But the Celtics haven’t been that great as road favorites so far, at least at the betting window as they are 7-10-1 ATS in that role. With another game here in Charlotte Monday afternoon, I can see this not exactly being a peak performance (Jaylen Brown is questionable to play).

Meanwhile, it should be “all hands on deck” for the Hornets, who are back home after playing the last four games on the road. They’ve lost six of seven overall, but did upset Milwaukee on the road, 138-109 as a 10-point underdog.

With Boston only outscoring its opponents by 2.5 points/game on the road, I just think this is too many points. 10* 

It would be hard to imagine the 49ers not emerging victorious on Saturday but the question is "by how much?"  First off, there is a huge risk of  heavy rain and wind, making for the likelihood of a run-dominated game. The Giants ran 60% of the time in their last game and have had plenty of success with it, averaging 160+ yards in their last three games. The Seahawks' defense doesn't handle the run at all well, so the 49ers would be wise to take advantage irregardless of the weather.  Seattle, and especially Walker has had rush success lately, as the Seahawks have put up even more yards than the 49ers on the ground L3  Seattle will likely have a tougher time moving the ball against an excellent SF rush defense.
The 49er's pass defense, while not exactly struggling lately, has given up more passing yards, a higher completion % and more points lately.  Smith has excellent targets, but his star is not nearly as shiny in recent games, and he will face formidable pass pressure from the 49ers.  Purdy has improved each week and is off a passer rating of 115 in his last three games, but he doesn't exactly air it out.  He is still very much a rookie, and the Seahawks' pass defense has been much better recently, with 5 sacks last week and a passer rating allowed of just 65 in their last three games.
Considering the field conditions, I think this game will be closer than expected.  Carroll will have the Seahawks prepared, and certainly the team from Emerald City are no strangers to rain.  While a win is not likely for the Seahawks, neither is a blow out.  Take Seattle plus the points

This is the ultimate buy low spot on Kentucky, who just lost outright - as a 20-point home favorite (!) - to South Carolina earlier in the week. Now the Wildcats face one of the best teams in the country (Tennessee) and are catching double digits themselves.

It’s not been a great watch in Lexington so far this season as UK has not covered a spread since before Thanksgiving. That’s 10 straight ATS losses for “those keeping score at home.” 

But how many times do you get KENTUCKY catching double digits? Not many. The most points they’ve gotten in any game all season was 4.5. That was against Alabama, another top 10 team, on the road. I don’t think that the difference between ‘Bama and Tennessee is as great as the oddsmakers’ number here makes it out to be. 

Teams have shot just 20.9% from three against Tennessee this season. That cannot possibly continue. I say that because the NCAA record for 3-point FG% defense (in a single season) is 25.3%.  

Double digit road underdogs, after losing outright as a double digit favorite, are a solid 57.5% ATS the last 30 seasons. Grab the points here. 10* 

The Devils are rested and on the road to face the Ducks today.  NJ has been dynamite on the road this season, 15-2 to date.  They've also been explosive in their last two appearances, knocking off the 'Canes and Rangers, and have scored 4 or more goals in 5 of 6 games.  The Ducks do play better in their own pond, but ares still just 8-12 at home.  They have been shelled in two straight home games, allowing 13 goals while scoring just 3!  This game is a mismatch.  New Jersey has a sixth ranked offense and fourth ranked defense against the Ducks "worst or close" defense, offense, PP and PK. Yikes! Can you spell Bedard?
 In net, Vanacek has been a fine edition in net for the Devils, giving them a steady presence in goal.  Gibson, who has had a very fine career in Anaheim, is posting his worst numbers ever, and has allowed 13 goals in his last 2 games. Don't blame him. He's been peppered with quality shots; absolutely a sitting duck... Take the resurgent Devils to win on the puck line at -1 1/2.

Utah has been sliding in recent weeks (2-8 SU L10 games), but did just defeat their old teammate (Deron Williams) and Cleveland earlier this week. I like their chances of not only making it two straight, but also covering the spread on Friday.

The Jazz get Orlando off a win, and a rather shocking one at that as the Magic beat the Blazers on the road, 109-106 as an eight-point underdog.

But this will be the Magic’s fourth straight road game, all out West. The Portland win came on the second night of a back to back, making that result all the more shocking. But even with the two days off here, I think fatigue could be setting in.

At home, the Jazz are averaging 120.9 points/game. That’s far too much for an Orlando team that only averages 106.6 on the road. The Magic were at 51.3% from the field in their last game. Rarely, do they shoot better than 50% in two straight games. 10*

Note the early tip time for this one (5 PM ET). After registering a big win over Penn (88-69 as 3.5 point favorites) last Friday, Cornell promptly dropped its first Ivy League game the following day (75-68 to Princeton, as three-point favorites). The Ivy League leaders are again at home this Friday and with such a short number, most are going to be calling for a bounce back. I’ve got a bit of a different read on this one.

Yale has played three close games to open conference play. They dropped the first two, 62-60 at Columbia and 81-77 at Dartmouth. Both times they were double digit favorites. Then came the first win in the Ivy League, 58-54 over Harvard last Saturday. But again the Bulldogs failed to cover, this time as 7.5-point favorites.

But this will be the first time Yale has been an underdog since facing Kentucky on 12/10. They covered the number in that game pretty easily.

It’s a much shorter number obviously vs. Cornell, but I still like Yale’s chances. They have a major edge defensively in this matchup as Cornell ranks 226th in efficiency over at KenPom. Yale is 69th.  8*

Portland will host Cleveland Thursday night, looking for a reversal of fortunes as the Blazers have dropped four straight while the Cavs have won four of six.

They say “there’s no place like home,” but for Portland that was untrue two nights ago when they went out and lost to Orlando, 109-106, here at home. That was their first game back home following an 0-3 road trip and they shot just 6 of 35 from three. I expect much better shooting in this game, even though Cleveland has a reputation of being very good defensively.

While the Cavs have won four of six, they are just 1-2 on the current road trip and this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days (third in five). Donvan Mitchell’s 46 was not enough against his former team (Utah) on Wednesday as the Cavs lost to the Jazz 116-114.  

It’s been a good first half of the season in Cleveland, but we’ve seen the team start to “give a little back” at the betting window where they are 2-6-1 ATS their last nine games. The market seems to have caught up to this team. Furthermore, the Cavs are just 6-12-2 ATS on the road this year.

Let’s head to the Pac 12 for tonight’s College Basketball selection as USC hosts Colorado. The Trojans have already taken some early action, including from me, as I think this is a great spot for them to bounce back from back to back losses.

Both those losses occurred on the road, at Washington State and UCLA. It was a close one against their rivals, with USC even roaring back to take the lead in the final 30 seconds, but they ultimately fell two points short. But at least it was an easy cover as 11-point pups.

Before the two straight losses, USC had won seven games in a row, one of them over Auburn. Andy Enfield’s team was 11-3 overall with two of the losses coming to Tennessee and Wisconsin.

At home, don’t think the Trojans will shoot 18.5% from three again as they did vs. UCLA. 

As for Colorado, they have prevailed in seven of their last eight games. But that one loss was to Cal, on the road. I understand that the Buffaloes just beat up on Oregon and Oregon State, but this line opened too low as USC is 6-1 ATS this season against teams that have a winning record. Lay it. 10* 

The embattled 4-6 Canucks are 0-2 on this road trip.  They can score but they can't hold a lead, allowing 12 goals and scoring 8 in their last two games.  They are 30th in goals against and worst in the league on the PK.  Add a sub-.500 road record and an 0-4 recent record against the Lightning, and a Canucks win seems unlikely.

The Lightning lost 2 straight on the road, but bounced back with a big home win against the Blues last time out.  Tampa Bay is very tough to beat at home.  With a top five offense and power play, they could have a field day against either of the Canucks' inexperienced 2nd string goalies.  The Canucks give out high risk chances and power play goals like Hallowe'en candy, but don't underestimate their offense.  The over is 23 -14 in Canucks' games this season.  Expect a high scoring game tonight  and go with the over again.

San Jose has lost it's way with just three wins in ten games.  They beat the Coyotes last night, but wins on consecutive nights is unlikely, especially against a 7-3 Kings team who are very good  at home.  LA won in a surprisingly low scoring game the last time these two teams met, but the Kings have been hot lately, beating both the Oilers and the Knights, and scoring 6 and 5 goals respectively.  The Kings' forte is offense and power play, and while their defense is below average, it is not nearly as poor as the The Sharks' who are  28th in goals allowed.

LA has six players with 10 or more goals, plus decent secondary scoring.  The Sharks' +/- is very shaky, neither goaltender is especially sharp, and they will play two nights in a row with travel thrown in.  Look for the Kings to be a lot tougher on the Sharks than the last time these two teams met.  The Sharks aren't terrible at putting the puck in the net either.  With  the Sharks averaging three goals a game, and the Kings on a tear, look for this game to go over the total.

The 7-3 Kings are at home to the Sharks, who are struggling at 3-7. The Sharks managed a win against the Coyotes last night, but they defend poorly and are playing in a back to back situation. It will likely be Reimer in net for the Sharks, and he has struggled in three straight games, although having the 28th ranked defense in front of you doesn’t help. Copley will very likely start for the Kings. He’s been a bit of an eye-opener this season at 11-2, giving up just 2.5 goals a game.

The Sharks have had success in the past against the Kings, and the last time they met resulted in a close Kings’ win. The Kings are getting solid and varied scoring and have a good power play. They’ve scored 6 and 5 goals respectively against better teams than the Sharks. At home, and with better rest, look for the Kings to win big tonight. Take the Kings at – 1 ½.

Illinois State snapped a three-game losing skid its last time out, beating Evansville on the road, 69-61. Now they’ll turn around and host a Missouri State team that just had a four-game win streak ended with a 74-61 loss at Belmont.

I won’t lie and sell you that Illinois State is a “good team,” but the Redbirds’ record could certainly be a lot better. They have four losses by four points or less.  

Missouri State being a road favorite here immediately caught my attention. The Bears have had to lay points in only one true road game so far this season. While they won and covered in that spot, it was against Illinois-Chicago, who is a pretty bad team.

If this game comes down to the free throws, and it very well might (considering the tight spread), then Illinois State has a huge edge. The Redbirds are making 79.8% of their FTs (82.1% at home). Missouri State, meanwhile, is a woeful 59.1% from the charity stripe (57.1% on the road). 

ISU is a solid 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games. Take the points. 10* 

Needless to say, Indiana has outperformed their low expectations coming into the season. One more win and the Pacers go Over their season win total! 

Unfortunately, Pacers’ fans, you’re going to have to wait another day. I like the Knicks here, at home, coming off a loss. 

The Knicks were a trendy pick Monday night vs. Milwaukee and looked to be well on their way to victory. But they blew a 17-point lead here at home and ended up losing by four. This should have them coming out angry for tonight.

Last month, the Knicks beat the Pacers, 109-106 in Indiana, and went off as a 1-point favorite. I think the number should be higher here. 

Indiana has a negative efficiency rating (-1.9), so I think their 23-18 record is a bit fraudulent. I see them as being due for a downturn. Fade. 10* 

This is the second night of a back to back for Orlando. They’ll encounter a Portland team that should be pretty angry after it dropped all three games on a recently completed road trip.

The Magic just gave up 136 points to Sacramento last night, so I understand that betting the Under might seem a little bit “scary.” But the key takeaway from Monday’s loss is that the Kings made a franchise record 23 three pointers. Portland, with its average offense, won’t come close to that number.

In fact, the Blazers just put up only 106, 99 and 105 points in those three road losses. They do average a lot more than that at home (118.5 points/game), but in the first game back may struggle a bit. 

Something else to consider is that Orlando only averages 106.5 points/game on the road. 

I just think that this number is way too high, especially when you consider that the Blazers have gone Under in seven of their last eight. 10*

I played VCU on Saturday, laying 5.5 against Davidson. They came through for me, winning in rather dominant fashion, 89-72. Let’s go back to the well with the Rams again.

VCU actually fell behind Davidson 10-0 after the first four minutes. But from there, it was all Rams. I don’t see them falling behind like that here against Loyola Chicago, so expect another comfortable victory. 

Loyola has now failed to cover five in a row after it was beaten 86-75 at George Mason over the weekend. That was also the Ramblers’ fourth consecutive SU loss. Drew Valentine’s team is struggling big time right now as each of those four losses were by double digits. 

Bettors can’t be happy with this Loyola team, who is 3-12 ATS in all games this season. Even getting points hasn’t really helped as they are 1-4 ATS in that role. After giving up 80 or more points in the previous game (as is the case here), the Ramblers are 0-4 ATS this season.

Give me VCU and it’s 52nd ranked defense. Loyola is outside the top 200 defensively. Lay the short number. 10*

With the College Football National Championship front and center, there’s not much College Basketball on tonight’s docket. But this is a game worth paying attention to.

New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country, but has now dropped two in a row including an 84-77 decision here at home to UNLV Saturday night. I thought that result was undeserved and the Lobos were the better team. Nevertheless, they come into Monday looking to avoid a third consecutive defeat as favorites.

Oral Roberts has won 10 straight, but three of the last five victories have been by exactly three points. 

I’m looking at the total here as we’ve got a very high number. Both teams are Top 32 in tempo and ORU is Top 20 in offensive efficiency. The last six New Mexico games have all gone Over the total.

Yet so much has to “go right” to get Over a number this large. Note that NONE of those L6 NM games would have gone Over this number (though the last one would have if this line trickles down any further).  Three of the last four games involving Oral Roberts saw 145 or less total points scored. I’m on the Under.

The Grizzlies just keep winning as they ran their streak to six straight with last night’s 123-118 victory over Utah. That win streak will be expected to continue here as Memphis is a double digit favorite at home over San Antonio.

Should be noted that the Grizzlies did not cover the spread in last night’s game. I have no interest in laying double digits with them in the second night of a back to back. So let’s check out the total, which seems a little high given the Spurs have the third worst offensive rating in the league.

Memphis’ own offensive rating is just middle of the pack (16th).

This number is likely inflated due to the fact the Over is also on a 10-1 run in Spurs’ games. The last three Grizzlies’ games have also all gone Over. But there has yet to be a time all season where the Grizz went Over in four straight.

Certainly worth paying attention to is the fact that Ja Morant was a late scratch for the Grizzlies last night due to right thigh soreness. San Antonio was without three starters in its last game. 10*

TCU seems like a pretty square dog to me. Including the semifinal win over Michigan, they have six wins by eight points or less. Give them credit for getting here, but the Horned Frogs are severely outclassed in this National Championship matchup with Georgia. 

Against Michigan, the Horned Frogs needed two pick-sixes and a pair of turnovers at the goal line. And they still only won by six! They were outgained for the game 528-488.

While Georgia did trail almost the entire game against Ohio State, they actually did outgain the Buckeyes 533-467. And OSU is a much better team than TCU, who may not have its starting running back for this game. 

The Bulldogs have not only won 10 straight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, but they have covered the spread in 9 of those 10 wins. 

I think in a situation like this, it’s typically a good idea to fade the crowd and it’s pretty clear to me that vast majority of people are taking the points in this one. I think that’s a mistake. UGA wins big and repeats as National Champs. 10*

Buffalo played a typical Sabres-style game last time out, scoring 6 times and allowing 5 goals.  They are 8-2 L10 and have potted 39 goals in those wins. They host the 6-4 Flyers on Monday, who were blown out by the Leafs on Sunday.  With back to back games and travel, fatigue could be a factor for Philadelphia.  The Flyers are below .500 on the road and are a below average defensive team.  7 of their last 10 game have gone over the total. They will run out a back up goalie against the Sabre's #1 offense and #2 power play. The Sabres have plenty of firepower, but still struggle on defense, allowing on average 3.4 goals against.

I am wagering on the over for Monday's match-up.  Look for the Sabres to light it up against a road-weary Flyers team.

The Clippers badly need to get back on track. They’ve lost five in a row and failed to cover the spread in the last four games. 

The Hawks aren’t in any better shape as they’ve dropped six of eight amidst chemistry issues. As a three-point favorite, they were beaten by the Lakers on Friday and gave up 130 points.

There’s seemingly always a question about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s statuses when you play the Clippers, but I like them regardless tonight. This will be just the second time in the last nine games that they get to play at home. 

Atlanta was down 70-49 at the half to the Lakers and is 7-13 on the road. 

Look for this to be a “get right” spot for LA.  10*

The Capitals whipped the Blue Jackets last week in Columbus, and now face them at home.  The Blue Jackets are playing their 2nd game in two nights on Sunday.  Columbus is appalling on the road at just 2-12 this year.  The Capitals are a strong home team and will be much tougher to play against with the return of Backstrom and  everyone's favorite, Tom Wilson.  The Blue Jackets are not as fortunate, still with a very long list of injuries. Ranking 30th in both goals scored and PP, and 31st in goals allowed, they will have their hands full against the Capitals' top ten offense and defense.
Merzlikins (4.78,.861 SV %) had an ugly game vs the Capitals in his first appearance in nearly a month.  It has been a tough season for him, not helped by an exceptionally poor and depleted defense in front of him.  Kuemper will start for Washington tonight, and he has been steady.
With just 2 wins in the last 10 games, Columbus is a very large underdog today. They upset the 'Canes in Columbus last night in a shoot-out, managing just 18 shots while giving up 42.  They travel today, and there is little chance of another win tonight.  Take the Capitals in a repeat performance, winning on the puck line at -1 1/2.

The Seahawks let the season get away after that promising start, but all is not quite lost yet. A win against the Rams gives them a statistical chance.  Seattle rallied last week, putting up 23 points against a tough Jets defense.  Smith was solid again, and a little more diverse in his targets and RB Walker is finally back in form, off a pair of 100 yard games in his last two starts.  Their defense has been the stumbling block but it has shown recent improvement against some tough competition in their last three weeks. At this point it is at least better than the Rams'.
Other than the blow-out vs a hapless Broncos team, the Rams have not impressed, especially last week against the Chargers.  Other than Mayfield the Rams don't have much to play for.  They are up against an all-in Seahawks team that is tough at home.  And, they'll be playing in the rain.  The Rams defense has taken a huge turn for the worse lately.  They gave up 430 yards last week.  Their rushing defense has disintegrated, and their pass defense, sub-par all season, allowed a 120 rating with 0 sacks last week.  They will likely continue to run the ball, but Seattle's run defense has shown well lately.
A driven Seattle team will win and cover against the Rams, as LA plays out the string after a very disappointing season.

Let’s head to the MAAC Sunday afternoon where Manhattan will look to get back on track hosting Niagara. The Jaspers have lost three straight, the last two coming at home. They were slight favorites (-2) to beat Canisius earlier in the week, but went down 64-57. I don’t see this team losing three in a row at home, so as a dog, they are my lone College Hoops play for Sunday.

Now Niagara comes in riding a four-game win streak, the last two coming as short underdogs. The Purple Eagles beat Rider and Fairfield to start 2023, the latter on the road. But just like I cannot see Manhattan losing three straight at home, I can’t see Niagara making it five wins in a row.  

Let’s point out that Thursday’s win at Fairfield was an OT game for Niagara and they really benefited from horrible shooting by the opposition, who went 31.8% overall from the floor and 2 of 16 from three. I don’t see Manhattan shooting that poorly here.

There have not been many wins so far for the 4-10 Jaspers. But being underdogs here should lead to a sense of “disrespect” as I believe the home team feels it can certainly win this one.

Also worth pointing out that Niagara is the 3rd luckiest team in the country per KenPom. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less so far, which does not even include the overtime game on Thursday. The only other time that the Purple Eagles were road favorites this season, they lost outright to New Jersey Tech 62-53. Take the points here. (Probably won’t need them though). 10* 

The Ravens, missing Lamar Jackson and other starters, travel to Cincinnati, to face Burrow and the mostly healthy Bengals. Taking the emotional unknown of last week's tragic event out of the game, this is not a situation that favors Baltimore. The Bengals are very much pass-first, in spite of a fine if underused RB in Mixon.  While Baltimore is very tough against the run, the Ravens' pass defense is barely average this year, and while they've shown improvement vs the pass lately, the Ravens have not faced a top QB since the Jags.  The Ravens can successfully press a QB, but Burrow is an old hand vs passer pressure, and the Bengals O line is much improved this year.
The Ravens struggle to put up points at any time.  They are reliant on the run game, and with Jackson out, it is up to Dobbins, with Huntley, if he plays, chipping in some yards.  Not to underestimate Dobbins, but the Bengals' defense will be the toughest rush defense that Baltimore has faced.  Note that the Steelers' 7th rated rush defense was able to hold Baltimore to 120 yards last week, down considerably from their 160+ average.
It remains to be seen if the Bengals can put last week's event at least on hold, but I do feel that, otherwise this game is a bit of a mismatch.  Look for the Bengals, with their fine air attack to win and cover.

Here is a very good situation for a Big Bad Bruins win.  Boston is 7-3 L10, but a fine 11-4 on the road this season.  They catch the Sharks on the wrong end of a back to back, with Reimer who has struggled lately, in net.  The Sharks are horrible at home with just 4 wins to date.  They are languishing down in the cellar on defense and aren't much better on offense. The Bruins by comparison, with the best defense and PK in the league, are also #2 in goals scored and #4 on the power play.   Ullmark should start and he is in the  Vezina conversation for his season's play, not to mention super-sharp in recent action.

Boston is a legitimate large favorite for Saturday, but with both offensive and defensive prowess, they are also a solid bet on the puck line.  Take the Bruins to take on prisoners, winning and covering against the Sharks.

The Titans are on the road, facing a surging Jags team for all the marbles.  While last week’s loss was more of a rest game, the Titans have stumbled almost unbelievably in their last 6 games, with the defense regressing almost everywhere but rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt.  Compare to the Jags’ defense who have shown real improvement down the stretch.  Points against totals are hugely better, and they are much tougher in the red zone and against the run.  Even their passing game is improving,  a bonus against the Titans poor pass offense.
On offense, there really is no comparison.  The Jags have much better rushing stats than Tennessee, supposedly the Titans’ realm.  Lawrence was not as strong last time out, but his improvement this year has been a real eye-opener.  He will face one of the easier pass defenses this week.  The Jags’ offense is much more balanced; the run offense has averaged 160+ yards in the last three weeks, although they will face a tough Titans’ run defense.
Not to mention beating the Titans just 4 weeks ago, the Jags have also beaten the Cowboys and the Texans, both of whom won against the Titans in recent weeks. The Titans REALLY miss Tannehill, and even with the King returning this week,  the Titans will have more than their hands full on Saturday.  Other than an attack of nerves, this game is there for the Jags to take.  Jaguars will win, cover, and head into the play-offs.

Bad spot here for New Orleans, who is in the second game of a back to back without Zion Willamson and Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans fought valiantly last night at home, but ultimately lost to the Nets 108-102 and didn’t cover the 4-point spread.

Dallas had Friday off and should come out angry here after having their seven-game win streak snapped in embarrassing fashion Thursday when they were blown out here at home by the Celtics, 124-95. 

It has to be very frustrating for the Pelicans to look at that final score from last night as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving miss a combined 32 shots for Brooklyn. NO had its own shooting woes in the second half, however, making just 2 of 12 threes. They finished the game at 39.8% overall. 

While the Pelicans have been an excellent home team so far, they are below .500 on the road (7-10 SU) and this is not the situation to get back on track.

The Mavericks were 29-9 ATS the previous two seasons when off a game like Thursday where they were held under 100 points. They haven’t been as profitable in that situation this season, but it’s still a good spot to jump on as Luka should have another big game. 10*

The Suns are a bit of a mess right now due to Devin Booker being injured. The team has lost four straight. In the last two games, they’ve finished with only 83 and 88 points.

But all four of those losses came on the road. I know that when a team is playing its first home game following a long road trip, it’s usually not the best time to jump on board. However, the Suns should be very happy to be back at home where they are 14-5 this season.

Miami is at the end of a five-game road trip here. They’ve won two and lost two thus far. The last game saw the Heat lose to a Lakers team that did not have LeBron James or Anthony Davis. They let Dennis Schroder go for a season-high 32 points.

Mostly because of injuries, the Heat have underperformed this season. They are just a game above .500 and sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference standings. But due to Phoenix’s recent woes and the short number, my guess is that most bettors will be on the road favorite here. I think that’s a mistake. 

The Suns almost won at Cleveland on Wednesday and that is not an easy place to play. (Cavs are 18-4 at home). They lost on a last second jumper by Evan Mobley. I think this is a good buy low spot on Phoenix, who isn’t a home dog very often. Miami is 7-18 ATS as a favorite this season. 8*

Akron hasn’t had much success on the road this season, but the Zips have won six of seven overall and tonight I expect them to go into Ball State, and at the very least, cover the number.

Ball State has won six in a row themselves. The Cardinals opened MAC play by winning at Toledo, 90-83 as an 8.5 point underdog. Coming off a win like that is usually a good time to fade a team. I just can’t see BSU matching the kind of shooting we saw from them in the last game (52.5% overall, 11 of 22 from three). 

The underdog has a big edge defensively in this game, ranking 103rd in efficiency while the favorite is just 235th in that department.

Akron has also had Ball State’s number, winning and covering all four meetings the last two seasons. Every win has been by at least nine points. 

I just think that the better team is getting points in this one. Ball State is 1-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. 

Back on 12/21, the Raptors handed the Knicks a 113-106 loss at Madison Square Garden. New York came into that game on an 8-game win streak, then promptly lost its next five (including the game vs. Toronto). But the Knicks are now seemingly back on track with three straight wins and they’re back in the top six of the Eastern Conference.

Toronto came into that last meeting with the Knicks on a six-game losing streak. Fast forward to today and they are reeling yet again with losses in four out of their last five games. A massive rally Wednesday against Milwaukee (trailed by 21 with 3:50 to go) was ultimately in vain as the Raptors eventually lost in OT.  They are now 3-10 L13 games.

As tempting as the points look here, the Knicks’ three straight victories have come at the expense of: Houston, San Antonio and a depleted Phoenix team.

I like the Under here as - even with OT - the Raptors’ last game only saw 205 combined points scored. They have not shot the ball well of late (42.9% L5 games) and the Knicks don’t shoot well when they are on the road (43.8%). 

Pascal Siakam scored 52, a career-high for him, in that previous meeting. That won’t happen again. The Under is 11-5 in the Knicks’ previous 16 road games. 10* 

Nashville knocked off the 'Canes last night, leaning on Saros' monster 67 save performance. He won't be in the net tonight, as Preds' are on the road against against a tough Capitals team.  Washington, now 7-3 L10, also played last night, winning easily.  They are at home tonight where they are an impressive 12-5 this season.  They shut out Nashville in the only other time they faced the Predators.

Nashville is just .500 on the road, and 5 -5 in their last ten games.  They struggle to score this season, among the bottom-dwellers in goals-for and on the Power Play, while are exactly average on defense.  The Capitals are a top ten offense and defense, and have an excellent PK.  In the tale of the fill-in goalies, the Capitals have a decided edge.  Lindgren has been sharp, while playing on a regular basis. The Preds' Lankinen has played just twice in the last month, allowing 5 goals in each appearance.

It isn't just the goal-tender who will be tired after a 60+shot onslaught.  Look for the Capitals, with no travel today, to be the fresher of the two teams.  Take the ageless Ovechkin and the Capitals to continue their success at home and win today.

The Bruins and Kings clash in LA tonight, meeting for the second time this year.  The Kings, a very good home team this year, beat the Bruins in December.  Boston will be looking for revenge tonight, and are super-strong on the road this year at 10-4.  Boston, with the 2nd most goals-scored and the 6th ranked power play, face a Kings team whose defensive stats (23rd goals against, 28th PK)are well below average.  Boston is very tough on defense as well, 1st in goals-against, and PK against an average Kings offense.  Ullmark is the likely starter for the Bruins.  He is arguably the best net-minder this season, and is both good and consistent.  Quick is expected for the Kings tonight.  Quick may be showing his age this year, struggling for the season and in recent games as well.
The Bruins have been a bit inconsistent in recent games, splitting their last 4, but there is no doubting that this is a legitimate 1st place team.  I am not willing to gamble on LA taking 2 straight, even with their home record.  Look for the Bruins to step it up tonight, evening up the series.  The odds are not onerous, considering Boston's talent and record.  Take Boston to win.

Two teams looking to make their mark in the West Coast Conference square off late Thursday as San Diego welcomes in Pacific.

San Diego (8-8 SU, 5-9 ATS) is off a big win as 11-point underdogs at San Francisco. This will be the Toreros first time playing at the Jenny Craig Pavilion since an 84-58 win over UC San Diego back on December 12th. They went 2-3 SU/ATS on the recently completed road swing.

Pacific (8-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) is also coming off an outright win as they beat Loyola Marymount 78-72 as a 4.5-point underdog. But that was at home. I don’t see a second straight upset win in the cards for the Tigers.

San Diego is averaging over 80 points/game at home this season. They are #59 in the country in offensive efficiency as per KenPom.

The defensive numbers aren’t great for the Toreros, but I also don’t think Pacific can take advantage. This is a Tigers team that lost to a non-DI school (CS-East Bay) at home last month. They also lost by 20 at home to BYU. Lay the points here. 8*

On Tuesday, the Celtics were blown out in the most shocking way imaginable, 150-117 by Oklahoma City. It was the most points allowed in a game by the franchise since 1979! 

It was also the Celtics’ second loss in a row. I played against them on New Year’s Day when they started this four-game road trip with a 123-111 loss at Denver. Despite basically being fully healthy, the Celtics have dropped five of nine overall.

But they are still the best team in basketball in my view and their reputation still carries a lot of weight in the marketplace as they are favored here, on the road, over a Dallas team that’s on a seven-game win streak.

These teams met back in November, in Boston, and the Celtics won 125-112 as 5.5-point favorites.

You know we’re going to get an inspired showing from the Celtics after they got humiliated by one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. 10* 

Last month, Fairleigh Dickinson gave a truly horrific effort against Richmond, actually trailing at the half 42-9! The Knights then lost their next game, 82-73 to Queens U, one of the new D-I programs this season. But they battled back and posted consecutive wins to end 2022, first beating Merrimack 71-63 and then Centenary 99-50.

Certainly, those wins won’t impress anyone, but it is not as if Wednesday’s opposition, St. Francis (NY), is anything to be concerned about. This is not exactly the marquee matchup for Thursday College Hoops. FDU is rated #328 at KenPom while SFNY is #348. 

FDU is one of the worst defensive teams in the country, but has the edge offensively and I think their tempo (70th fastest in the country) will bother St. Francis.

In their last game, St. Francis lost to Central Connecticut State, another of the worst teams in the country. Actually, they didn’t just lose, they got beat by 22! 

The fact that this is a revenge game for FDU (five straight losses to St. Francis) puts them over the top for me. Homecourt advantage won’t mean much on a Thursday afternoon. 10*

Expect plenty of points Wednesday night when the Hawks and Kings match up. Last night, Sacramento scored 117 pts for the 7th time in the last 10 games as they beat Utah by two. 

At home, the Kings are averaging 122.3 points/game this year. That’s the good news. But the bad news is they also allow 118.9 points/game here.

Atlanta is horrible defensively. Yes, the 143-141 loss to Golden State Monday was a double overtime game. But this is a team that has also allowed 129 to Indiana and 130 to the Lakers in regulation over their last four games. 

The Over is 13-5 this season when the Hawks hit the road. The Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but it’s time for an Over. They only combined for 221 points in a November matchup, but neither team shot all that well and the Kings were 30% from three-point range. 8*

The Lightning /Wild match-up pits two resurgent teams with very similar recent performances. Both teams are 8-2 L10, and both have given up 2 goals or less in those eight wins. It is literally years since these two teams met, so there is no recent history as a guide. The Lighting have a decided edge on offense, but are playing their second game in two nights. Both teams have solid defense, playing in shutdown mode of late. The Lightning will very likely start Vasilevskiy, having started Elliott against the weaker Black Hawks in Game one on Tuesday. Sporting a .921 save % and a 2.42 Goals Against average, he has been exceptional in recent games. Gustavsson is projected to start for the Wild. He has also been very good in a larger than fill-in role for Minnesota this year.

Injuries are not really a concern for either team at the moment. The under is 8-2 in the Wilds’ last 10 games, and 3-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 4. With two very good net-minders, two solid defenses, and a tired Lightning offense another low scoring game seems likely. Wager on another under on Wednesday.

After winning and covering eight straight, the Knicks promptly dropped five in a row. But now they’re pointed back in the right direction after back to back blowout wins. They should make it three in a row tonight when they host the Spurs.

They may not have the worst record in the league, but no team has been outscored by more than the Spurs have been. In their last game, they went down by 36 at the hands of Brooklyn. The Spurs never led at any points in the game.

The Knicks outscored Houston 81-53 over the final three quarters on Saturday, then led by as many as 32 against Phoenix on Monday. 

I don’t expect their to be any kind of letdown tonight, considering NY will be playing with revenge for a 122-115 loss that occurred in San Antonio last week. In that game, Julius Randle scored 41 but the Spurs shot 51.1% as a team.

Since then, the Knicks have gotten back to playing outstanding defense, giving up just 88 and 83 points the L2 games. The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league and are 28th on offense. Lay it. 10*

Four games into conference play and Valparaiso is still looking for its first Missouri Valley win. The Crusaders host Northern Iowa on Wednesday. I sense there will be a real sense of desperation here for the home team and thus will back them plus the points.

Valpo is coming off a dreadful shooting night, one in which it made just 29.5% of its FG attempts against Indiana State. They ended up losing 68-50. Coming off an embarrassing effort such as that, at home no less, you’ve got to expect an inspired effort here. 

Northern Iowa is playing its second straight true road game, the first time that situation has come up for them in 2022-23. The Panthers won at Illinois State on New Year’s Eve, 66-60, a slight upset as they came into that game as one-point underdogs. Prior to that win, they’d dropped four of six.

This is a game flying under the radar on Wednesday’s CBB slate, but again, I like the situation for Valpo, who had scored 70 or more in each of its previous four home games. The Crusaders are due for better shooting after that abysmal last performance.  They are 13-5 ATS when coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less.

UNI, on the other hand, is 4-10 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 or less. That includes 0-4 this season. Take the points. 10* 

Two 12-1 teams meet Tuesday in Big XII action as Texas hosts Kansas State. While these teams may have the same won-loss record, they are not viewed as equals. Texas is #6 at KenPom while Kansas State is #45. So I’m not surprised that the Longhorns opened as a double digit favorite.

The Chris Beard situation makes Texas a tricky team to handicap right now, but I still expect them to continue to play excellent defense. Their last five games have all gone Over, but there was an overtime game mixed in there (1st game w/o Beard) and the Longhorns scored 97 and 100 themselves in two others. 

Kansas State is decent enough defensively (38th in efficiency) to keep the Texas offensive attack in check. 

But worrisome for the Wildcats is the fact they were down 11 to West Virginia at halftime of their last game. They rallied for an overtime win, 82-76, but that was at home. 

At the end of regulation, the score of that Kansas State-West Virginia game was 66-66. I really think we’ve got an inflated total on our hands here and will play the Under. 10*

The Wizards upset the Bucks as 2.5-point underdogs on New Year’s Day, winning 118-95. But that upset comes with a giant asterisk. The Bucks were short handed for that game as Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out due to knee soreness. Jrue Holiday also missed the game with an illness and Khris Middleton didn’t play either. 

Both Giannis and Holiday are expected to play in the rematch tonight. I’m expecting a big Bucks’ win at home.

The Bucks have dropped five of six, so they could use an impressive performance. The Wizards are 5-0 SU/ATS in their L5 games, but remember that it wasn’t that long ago they were on a 10-game losing streak.

With Giannis and Holiday on the floor, the Bucks have a +8.9 net rating and are a much better team defensively. I’m aware Washington may get Bradley Beal back, but when these teams are close to full strength, it’s a clear mismatch for Milwaukee.

When coming off an upset loss as a favorite, the Bucks are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season. The Wizards’ have allowed an average of only 103.8 points during the five-game win streak, but that’s well below their season average of 112.4 and I’d expect them to regress at the defensive end sooner rather than later. Lay the points here. 10* 

The Knights are on the road to face a disappointing Avalanche team, with both sides seriously depleted by injuries.  The Avs have lost three straight since the break, with all games going over the total. The good news for Colorado is that MacKinnon is back.  Their offense, ranked 25th, certainly needs a boost.  Colorado plays at home tonight, but aren't nearly as invincible a home squad as in seasons past.  Georgiev is the likely starter.  He has not been at all sharp since Christmas, allowing 14 goals on 93 shots in his last three games.  He was pulled in the loss against the Leafs last time out.  The Golden Knights' should start Thompson (.915 SV %) in net.  His numbers  have tumbled a bit as well in recent games.

The Knights are just 1-2 since Christmas, but have been tough to beat on the road at 14-3 this season.  They are very depleted at center and defense tonight.  The Knights are off a shoot out 5-4 win, but will miss Eichel today.

Goal-tending has bee a recent concern for the two teams, and both are very weak on defensemen tonight. I am not confident of a winner in this match-up but do believe the game will surpass the total, now set at six.  Take Vegas and Colorado to go over.

In a tough Western Conference, the T’wolves really need to get going. Right now, they are on the WRONG side of the cut line when it comes to the play-in tournament. Not even being among the West’s Top 10 is certainly a bit of a shock, considering where this team was projected to be coming into the season. 

Tonight, Minnesota hosts Denver, who is coming off a big win over Boston last night. I played the Nuggets Sunday as they easily covered as 1.5-point underdogs, winning 123-111. Nikola Jokic had yet another triple double (30-12-12) in a game that featured a 30+ minute delay due to a defective rim.

Denver is in 1st place in the West with a 24-12 record. But coming off last night’s win, this sets up as a letdown spot for them. It will be only their fourth time playing in a back to back this year. The Nuggets are also 0-2 ATS this season coming off a SU win where they were listed as the underdog.

Things may not be looking good in Minnesota as the team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS over its last six games. They lost here at home to the Pistons on Saturday, 116-104. But, because of that, there is no doubt as to which side should come out more motivated Monday night. 

The T’wolves went 3-1 against the Nuggets last year and have lost back to back home games only one time so far this season. Give me the points. 10*

Both teams are coming off close losses on the road to open Big XII play. In each instance, the loss occurred in the state of Kansas. West Virginia lost to Kansas State 82-76 in overtime (pick ‘em game) while Oklahoma State lost 69-67 (as 10-point underdogs) at Kansas. 

The difference between these teams is that WVU is on an 0-3 ATS losing streak while OK State is 3-0 ATS its last three games. I look for these streaks to end Monday.

WVU had won four straight games before losing in Manhattan. Oklahoma State is only 3-3 SU over its last six games. I don’t think that the Mountaineers should be underdogs here, even on the road.

With this game likely to be pretty low-scoring (total is currently 139.5 - and it wouldn’t surprise me if it stayed Under), that’s just another reason to take the points. 

I’ve got West VIrginia rated as the better team. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has been a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10*

Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. 

The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. 

Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. 

The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. 

The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* 

With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. 

That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. 

Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. 

LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense.

Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8*

Boston ended a seven-game homestand on a four-game win streak. They beat Minnesota, Milwaukee, Houston and the Clippers. They’ve had two days off to prepare for this New Year’s trip to Denver. 

As good as the Celtics are, the Nuggets are worthy adversaries. They’ve won 9 of 11 and one of those losses was by a single point.

At home, Denver is 13-3 and outscoring visitors by nine points per game. 

When these teams played in Boston on November 11th, the Celtics made 16 three-pointers and shot 55% overall. That will not be repeated. 

Jokic continues to be ridiculous for the Nuggets, making 50% of shots in 26 straight games. 10*

The Raiders have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year, and are now at home to the best defense in the league with a fill-in QB. The 49ers have several reasons to keep their foot on the gas.  They have an outside chance at a bye week in the playoffs and they need to give their young and promising QB all the experience they can before the playoffs.  Vegas has seen their points-scored drop by 5 in their last three games and by thirteen last week.  They lost to the Rams and Steelers with a total of 26 points while Carr was at QB.  Now with an untried Stidham under center, the prospects are bleak for point production.  Stidham will have to face  a healthy Bosa and the rest of the 49ers headhunters.  Carr was sacked 3 times last week, and it could go up on Sunday.  The Raiders real hope is elite running back Jacobs, but he will have his hands full against the top rushing defense in the league.  Jacobs was limited to under three yards a carry last week.
Then there is young Brock Purdy, some very good targets, not to mention McCaffrey. The 49ers have put up31 points on average in their last three games, and 37 last week.  Purdy had a passer rating of 119, a completion rate of 69+ and just 1 pick in his last three games.  He faces a Raiders' team 27th ranked in pass defense, and 30th in sacks.
The benching of Raiders' long time quarterback will not be without effect on a Raiders team going nowhere fast. It will be pedal to the metal for SF on Sunday.  Take the 49ers to win and cover.

I’m taking Dartmouth here, despite their five consecutive losses. Three of the five have been by single digits and the last four on the road. The Big Green now return home for the first time in a month, hosting a Cornell team that’s 10-3 and on a four-game win streak. Line is inflated here.

When off three consecutive SU losses, Dartmouth is 8-1 ATS. That includes covering the last two games.

As you may have surmised, the Big Green haven’t shot well during the 5-game skid. I’d say 35.6% is abnormally poor though. We should see that number start to go up at home though as they have a 49.5 FG% here for the year. They also are holding teams to 39.9%

Yes, Cornell can score and is very good at the offensive end. But they are not sound defensively, yielding 78.7 points/game away from home. They are 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

While I’m not so confident to predict an outright win here for the Big Green, they should easily cover at home. Take the points. 10* 

The Giants are home to the Colts in Week 17.  It is a very significant game for NY, and they likely couldn't have a better opponent.  The Colts are going nowhere fast, with an indifferent game last week and essentially no offense. Foles, with very limited time with the team, was about as expected; 3 points and a trio of picks. On a short week for the Colts, don't expect huge improvements from him.
The Colts' usually dependable defense has fallen apart in the last three games; their avg. points-allowed has ballooned to 37, they bombed against the Cowboys and were humiliated in the second half by the Vikings.  They are still tough on passers with 4 sacks last week, but their run defense is not elite, allowing 137 yards and 2+ TDs on average L3 games.
The Giants have the edge in all offensive categories.  They can run or pass, with both Barkley and Jones playing well lately. Jones' passer rating is consistently in the 90's.  He has cut down on turnovers, and can gain ground with his legs too.  He put up over 350 yards last week, but won't manage that against the Colts.
The Colts are, in my opinion, done for the year. They had 69 yards on the ground and 104 in the air last week against an average Chargers defense.  The Giants' postseason is ripe for the picking. They are healthier and at home.  Take the Giants to win and cover.

Who would believe the Jaguars as a potential play off team a year ago? The Jags now face the Texans on the road, hoping to improve on a 4-1 recent record.  Lawrence has the Jags' offense working very well, with a passer rating of over 100 in 5 of 7 games.  Last week was not one of them, but he still played a smart effective game with no picks, against a very tough Jets pass defense.  While we have seen more of a pass-first offense lately, the Jags, with Etienne and Robinson (and Lawrence chipping in), could go back to running the ball on Sunday.  Houston's rush defense is a mere shadow of their pass defense, and is 32nd in the league in rush yards allowed.  Lawrence has been protected well this season but will face some pressure from the Texans, who have had 4 sacks on average over their last three games. The pass defense is the Texans' best (some would say only) asset, but Lawrence maneuvered around an even better one last week.

The Jags' defense has shown improvement in most categories lately and should not be underestimated.  They've cut down on yards-allowed, are tough against the run and even their weak spot, pass yards-allowed, is improved.  They're averaging 3 sacks a game in their L3, and face an average Texans O-line this week.

Houston's offense is among the league's bottom feeders in almost every category.  While they have nothing to play for, they shouldn't be taken lightly.  The Jags are a legitimate potential playoff team, and will play like it on Sunday.  Take Jacksonville to win and cover on the road.

I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season. 

Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.

Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though. 

As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency.

Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10*

The Knicks are having all sorts of problems at the moment as they’ve dropped five in a row and are 0-4-1 ATS that same stretch. But they get a “new year’s present” tonight in the form of a matchup with the sorry Rockets. 

It wasn’t all that long ago that the Knicks were on an eight-game win streak. It’s not like they’re being blown out during this losing streak. All five losses have been by seven points or fewer. One was a buzzer beater while another was an overtime loss to Dallas that required a Herculean effort from Luka Doncic. 

Houston is unlikely to provide much resistance for a Knicks team that is desperate to get back on track. The Rockets have dropped seven of eight, the last two by a combined 39 points.

The Knicks are 22-7 ATS their last 29 road games. Look for them to tighten up at the defensive end and cover this small number. Julius Randle had 41 points and 11 rebounds in the last game and is capable of carrying the offensive load. 10* 

San Diego State, the presumed favorite to win the Mountain West this year, has been termed “disappointing” thus far, even though the Aztecs have a fine record and their defensive efficiency rating (13th) is among the best in the country. 

I had to settle for a ‘push’ when I played the Aztecs, as 16-point favorites, against Air Force earlier in the week. This time, as they are set to hit the conference road for the first time, we’re getting a far lower number and one that I believe they’ll cover easily. 

UNLV is in a bit of freefall as the Runnin’ Rebels have lost two of three following a 10-0 start. Both losses were close, 75-73 to San Francisco and 75-72 to San Jose State, the latter being a game that went to OT. But the Rebels are a team that struggles to score in the half court. That will be a big problem here. 

San Diego State should control tempo this afternoon. I think UNLV struggles at both ends of the court here. Since it’s last loss, SDSU has won three straight by 16+ points. 

Just think the line is a little low in this one. Lay the points. 10*

The Predators played well on Thursday, feasting on the Ducks, but now travel to Vegas to face a very different opponent.  The 6 goal outburst was unusual for the 3-7 Preds, who are just 1-6 vs over .500 teams in recent games.  They are thirtieth ranked in goals scored this season, and  not much better on the power play.  They face a Knights team that has lost 2 straight on the road but has had a couple of days to regroup.  The Vegas Golden Knights are close to top ten on offense and defense, and hold a considerable edge in play over Nashville.  Nashville has not thrived on the road, and now face an early turn-around in a back to back situation with their back-up goalie in net.  Lankinen has had some good performances this season, but his last appearance over two weeks ago was not one of them, giving up 5 goals.  He'll face the Knights' young net-minder Thompson, with a solid .916 goals-against avg. this year and a spoiled shutout in his last game.

Vegas has been doing everything in twos lately; two wins, two losses, two wins, two losses.  Time to get back in the win column for  New Years eve!  Take a better Golden Knights team to rebound and win at home on Saturday.

After a couple of hiccups against Illinois and Baylor, certainly excusable losses (especially since they were played on a neutral floor), UCLA has rattled off eight consecutive victories, most of them by double digits. I’ll look for them to continue rolling tonight when they visit the Palouse. 

Washington State has dropped two in a row for the fourth time this season. The Cougars are just 5-8 on the season. Now, the three previous times they’ve been off back to back losses previously, they’ve delivered a win. But those wins came against Eastern Washington, Northern Kentucky and George Washington. In every one of those games, they were the favorites.

UCLA has dominated this Pac 12 rivalry through the years, winning 40 of the past 47 matchups. 

The eighth ranked Bruins have eight wins by 10 or more over the past month, including beating Kentucky (in New York) and a 27-point thrashing of Maryland in a true road game. This should be a cakewalk by comparison.

The biggest problem for Wazzu in this game is that they are turning the ball over on 21.2% of all possessions, which is 292nd nationally. UCLA excels at turning its opponents over, doing so on 25.3% of all possessions, 11th best in the country. Lay the points here. 10*

Our first New Year’s Six Bowl Game is a matchup of top 10 teams, but #6 Tennessee and #7 Clemson are in drastically different places heading into the Orange Bowl.

Tennessee’s season came crashing down with a 63-38 loss to South Carolina in the second to last game. Not only was that a humiliating result, but it cost the Volunteers a shot at the College Football Playoff. Adding injury to insult, QB Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending injury. In addition to not having Hooker here, the Vols have seen their two top receivers opt out and they will be without offensive coordinator Alex Golesh, who is now the head coach at USF.

Clemson has some opt outs as well. But the big news for them is the switch at QB. Cade Klubnik is now the starter after an impressive ACC Championship Game performance where he completed 20 of 24 passes for 279 yards, sending DJ Uiagalelei packing. All of a sudden, an 11-2 season that was “disappointing” (by this program’s standard) has renewed enthusiasm. 

Hooker’s replacement is Joe Milton and you can look for him to struggle against what remains an outstanding Clemson defense (even with the opt outs). Milton is simply not very accurate on deep balls and was only 11 of 21 for 147 yards against Vanderbilt.

I think Clemson is the team that “wants” this game more. The Tigers have covered 11 of their last 14 bowl appearances and are 20-7-1 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents under Dabo Swinney. Lay the points. 10* 

The Raptors are just 2-8 straight up their last 10 games after losing 119-106 here at home to the Grizzlies last night. Things haven’t gone much better against the spread for the NBA’s lone Canadian franchise as they are 3-7 at the betting window in that same 10-game stretch.

The Suns are in the middle of a six-game road trip and things haven’t been going all that well for them either. Wednesday saw the team go down 127-102 in Washington. That was the fourth loss in five games for Phoenix, who is 4-9 SU L13. 

I like this game to stay Under the total. Yes, the Suns’ last three games have all gone Over as have the Raptors’ last four. But that’s been “baked” into this number. 

When playing in the second game of a back to back, Raptors’ games have averaged just over 216 points. 

Additionally, Phoenix is dealing with multiple injuries at the moment. The most notable being Devin Booker. Playing a fourth straight time on the road is hardly a likely time to find your offensive rhythm. 10*

The Hurricanes, after some shaky play earlier in the season, are tearing up the league lately.  They are going for 10 straight wins vs the Panthers, who have fallen by the wayside somewhat this season.  Florida thrashed the Habs last night, but are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and aren't successful at all (1-7) vs. teams that are over .500.

These teams have played just once this season, with Florida winning.  The Panthers have owned  the 'Canes in their recent match ups, but that will change tonight. The Hurricanes are shutting teams down lately with a fourth-ranked defense.  Florida is 21st by comparison.  The Canes are dominant at home.  The Panthers played last night and will likely start Knight in net.  He has barely played lately, with just 2 games since Dec. 6 and with save %'s of .731 and .800 in those appearances.  It will likely be Kochetkov in net for the 'Canes.  The young goalie has filled in admirably in a back up roll for Carolina, and is 10-1-4, with a 1.94 Goals against avg.

Carolina will be motivated tonight, and not just because it is the Panthers.  !0 straight wins would be a team record.  Florida is a poor team on the road,  and no doubt their arms will tired from all those goals scored last night. (I'm kidding) Give me the Panthers at home to break the record.  The Hurricanes, a favorite, will win.

Dallas should be in line for a big win tonight when they host Houston, who is one of the worst teams in the league and just 1-6 SU in its L7 games. 

After being such a disappointment at the betting window for the first month of the season, we’ve seen better results from the Mavs recently. They have won four in a row including a 126-121 victory over the Knicks on Tuesday. In that game, Luka Doncic turned in the first 60-20-10 game (points-rebounds-assists) in league history. 

Three of those four recent wins for the Mavs have been by six points or less. One of them was in Houston 112-106 as seven-point favorites. Doncic had 50-8-10 in that game.

Doncic may not repeat those individual numbers tonight, but the Rockets are playing their third road game in four nights and are just 4-14 on the road this year. I am expecting a blowout. 

The Rockets just lost by 24 in Boston two nights ago. This is a team with a bottom three offensive and defensive rating. Lay it! 10*

I am holding my nose this week and taking the Cowboy against a wounded and slumping Titans side.  We don't know who will actually play for the Titans in a somehow meaningless game for their playoff hopes.  For the Cowboys, Thursday's game is a fine chance to press for a play-off bye week, and an opportunity to work out some bugs in their recent inabilities to defend.  There are some significant issues in the Cowboys' defense.  Their tidal surge of passer pressure (3rd in the league) has ebbed alarmingly in their last three weeks, exposing some real problems.  Their passing yards-allowed has climbed by a full 100yds L3, and is actually worse than the 31st ranked Titans' figures over the last three games.  Their rushing yards allowed did improve in their last game, but their abilities against the run have not impressed in the second half of the season.  Luckily for the Cowboys, the much injured Titans are in no position to take advantage.  Tannehill, a very under-rated QB, is out and Henry, who is questionable, may well be rested.  The Titans' pass attack was pitiful last week, and the Cowboys' passer rushers should have their way against a poor Titans' pass defense.
On the plus side for the Cowboys, Prescott and their pass offense has been outstanding in recent games.  Prescott's passer rating was a monster 124 last week, in spite of 6 sacks.  The Cowboys have averaged 270+ yards in the air with an over 70% completion rate lately.  The Titans are dependably one of the worst teams against the pass and their sack % is just 3% over their last tree games.  The Titans continue to be strong against the run, but in recent games we have seen the Cowboys rely less on their strong running game.
With just 14 points scored last week and an average of 18, that 10 points  to cover looks like a reasonable bet this week.  The Cowboys have averaged over 30 points lately, with 40 against the Eagles and 54 vs. the Colts.  Take Dallas to show improvement on defense, roll on offense, and win and cover.

Buffalo has won 4 straight and have had an extended rest due to snow.  They are at home to the Red Wings, who play their second game in two nights.  The Sabres won 4 straight before the break, and for a team that struggles on defense, held teams to stingy 2 goals or less in those games.  There is nothing wrong with the Sabres' offense.  With 18 goals in their last four games, they have the top offense and 2nd ranked PP this year.  Anderson, now 41, has been a stand-out in net with an impressive .922 Save % on a defensively challenged team.  Detroit are 22nd ranked on defense and will be down to their second-string goal-tender.  Nedeljkovic has struggled this season and hasn't played since Dec.8.  Can you spell RUSTY?
The favorite generally wins out when these two teams meet.  The Red Wings are on the verge of players returning, but at this point are still missing more bodies than they would care to.  They've given up more than 4 goals in 4 straight games, and have won just once in seven games.  I am surely wagering on the Sabres in this match up.  Take Buffalo to win and act now as this line will change.

Many will view this as a “bounce back” or “get right” game for Iowa after they suffered an inexplicable 92-83 loss to Eastern Illinois last week, a game where the Hawkeyes were 31-point home favorites. I am far less convinced that any such “bounce back” takes place.

Nebraska is a team that has already taken Purdue, the class of the Big 10, into overtime this year. That game was played right in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers might be considered towards the bottom of the conference pecking order, but they are still a respectable 89th in the country over at KenPom.

Iowa is still soft defensively, ranking outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency. So Nebraska should be able to put up points here. Particularly on the inside as Iowa lets teams shoot over 50% from inside the arc. For the season, 54% of the Cornhuskers’ FG attempts are two-pointers.

Overall, Iowa has lost four of seven since a 5-0 start. Something to keep in mind is that Eastern Illinois had just one D-I win prior to stunning the Hawkeyes. That’s a very concerning result if you’re Fran McCaffery. 

Nebraska has balanced scoring with six players averaging between 9 and 14 points/game. Five players scored in double figures in the last game, a 75-65 win over Queens. Take the points in this Big 10 matchup. 10*

Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.

This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim. 

The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard. 

On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. 

Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10*

At 9-4 overall, Air Force is a lot better than usual this year. The Flyboys have even covered seven in a row. But this is a spot to sell high on the Falcons as they face San Diego State, the class of the Mountain West.

The Aztecs aren’t defending as well this year as we’re accustomed to seeing, but are still 14th in the country in efficiency and that’s good enough for me. They should have beaten Arkansas (blew a double digit lead) and also have a win over Ohio State on the non-conference slate.

The offense has been better for SDSU as well and that’s while not shooting all that well from three. Air Force is due for some serious regression when it comes to three-point defense (opponents only hitting 24% against them) so this is a game I’ve targeted for the Aztecs to get hot from deep. 

So far, Air Force has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. San Diego State will be the best team they’ve faced yet.

This number will scare some away, but not me as the Aztecs have won their last two games by a total of 50 points. They are also 7-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +18.0.  Lay it. 10*

Atlanta seemed to be in prime position for a win heading into Indiana last night. But they lost 129-114. If the Hawks can’t beat the Pacers, then I don’t see how they stand much of a chance vs. a Nets team that’s won nine straight while covering the spread in six of its last seven games. 

While one could make the argument that there’s not a ton of value in laying this number with Brooklyn, on the road, Atlanta has been a terrible team to bet on of late. The Hawks are 6-14 ATS the last 20 games and have failed to cover by an average of 4.7 points/game, the worst mark in the league during that time. 

Another potential problem for Atlanta is that Trae Young left last night’s game with an ankle injury. The Hawks were already missing two other starters - Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter. This is not a team you want to back right now.

As for the Nets, five of their last nine wins have come on the road, including 125-117 at Cleveland Monday night. The Cavs are not an easy team to beat, especially at home. But the Nets hung 125 points on what had been the league’s most efficient defense this year. Atlanta is far worse at defending than Cleveland. 

Brooklyn is leading the league in FG% and 3-point FG%. Kevin Durant has scored at least 25 points each of the last 13 times he’s faced Atlanta while Kyrie Irving is averaging 28-5-5 over his L10 games. Lay the number here. 10* 

This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. 

The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there.

But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. 

I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call.

The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10*

The uncertain status of QB John Rhys Plumlee makes this handicap a bit difficult, but UCF is certainly not the play given the uncertainty and Duke is a team that really improved throughout 2022 and should be fired up to be here in the Military Bowl (played in Annapolis, MD).  

The Blue Devils won five ACC games this year. That’s after winning none last year. This is the program’s first bowl since 2018, meaning the first for virtually every current player. On the other side, UCF had higher aspirations for the season than this game. The line move reflects the respective motivations. 

Losing to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game cost the Knights a shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl. They come into the bowl on a three-game ATS losing streak. There was an outright loss to Navy and they only beat USF by 7. 

All of Duke’s losses this year were by one score, so they could have finished better than 8-4 and even been in the ACC Title Game. The three conference losses were by a total of eight points. 

Duke QB Riley Leonard accounted for the third most touchdowns in the entire FBS (31 - 20 passing + 11 rushing). This is an offense that can run the ball effectively.  So can UCF, but Plumlee not being 100%/possibly out would hurt them. There’s no opt-outs for Duke, who will be at full strength and that should give them the edge over a possibly disinterested UCF team. 10* 

The Winnipeg Jets return from the break at home, where they are a fine 12-5 this season.  The Wild, on a 6-1 run, are less impressive on the road, 8-6 so far.  The Wild are just average on offense, but are certainly over-achieving on defense, limiting opposing offenses to just 6 goals total in those wins.  Both of their goaltenders have been sharp in net.  Fleurie has underwhelmed until recently, but was very very sharp leading up to the break.

The Jets are playing a much more disciplined and defensively-responsible style of hockey under new coach Bowness.  They are 4th-ranked in goals-against to date, and a strong fifth on the Penalty Kill.  #1 goaltender Hellebuyck, bouncing back from an off year in 2021,  is Vezina-good this season.

The Jets and Wild are both pretty average on offense, but have both been stingy in the goals-against recently.  Both teams have top-rated and competitive veteran net-minders, so perhaps we will see a little extra rivalry in goal.  the Under has been THE main feature for both teams lately; 6 of 7 in Wild games , and 6 straight for the Jets.  Here is a trend I don't want to buck.  Take the Jets and Wild to go under the total again on Tuesday.

The Clippers had absolutely zero business winning last night’s game in Detroit, let alone covering the spread. Down 14 with 3:34 left, LA appeared left for dead, but instead somehow rallied to force overtime where they’d go on to win 142-131. They were 5.5 point favorites.

I will look to fade LA again here, even if Kawhi Leonard ends up playing. A second night of a back to back after an OT game where they rallied just seems like a bad situation all around. The Clippers remain just 9-8 on the road and don’t play particularly good defense.

Toronto hasn’t played since before Christmas when they upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland (not easy to do), 118-107 as a 5-point dog. It was a perfect 3-0 ATS road trip for the Raptors, which included another outright win where they snapped the Knicks’ eight-game win streak. The only SU loss on the trip was by three, in overtime, at Philadelphia (who has been the hottest team in the league). 

Back to the Clippers, they have lost five of the seven times they’ve played in the second night of a back to back this year. 10*