The pick: The Ducks have won two of their last three, while the Wild enter off a 4-3 loss to the Sharks on Tuesday, while also having a game in LA on Thursday. Anaheim beat Calgary 3-2 at home in its latest action and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here against the “flat footed” and Wild. Note that the Ducks are 7-3 in their last ten in this series at home. 

Play on Anaheim.

The set-up: Boston enters off an epic come from behind OT win in Phoenix just last night, overcoming a 22-point second half deficit. Kyrie Irving exploded for 39 points. This is the finale of a tough Western swing and in my opinion, I believe the Celtics will be focusing on the defensive end of the floor tonight after Thursday’s marathon victory. The C’s themselves are allowing just 100.7 points per 100 possession on the defensive end of the floor for the league’s best defensive rating. Offensively though the Celtics are ranked 27th with a 103.7 rating. Utah has uncharacteristically struggled on the defensive end of the floor to open the year, but clearly the home side catches a break facing the “gassed” Celtics. 

The pick: Note that Utah has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven after scoring 115 points or more in a victory in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.” 

The pick: After four straight wins and with a game tomorrow night in Columbus, I think the Rangers get caught complacent and “looking ahead” in this spot. Detroit on the other hand will be risking life and limb tonight to try and score the victory with a tough road game in Carolina tomorrow night. Great price, play on the Wings.

The set-up: Will struggling Louisville win this one outright? Of course not. I’m not suggesting that whatsoever. The Cardinals are coming off a humbling loss to the Clemson Tigers, but they’ll be eager to atone for that blunder for head coach Bobby Petrino. Clearly Syracuse is the better team, but in my opinion this sets up as a “letdown” spot in some small way after big wins over Wake Forest, NC State and UNC.

The play: Take it for what you will as well, but Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road. Look for Louisville to open up the playbook and keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

Bonus: The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It’s a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: Columbus comes in off a 4-1 home win over Dallas and it’ll look to keep the offensive pressure dialled up in the Nation’s capital facing a Capitals team who enters off a 2-1 home victory over Pittsburgh. This is a big time revenge game for Columbus, who I expect to push the pace here. Washington took three of four in the regular season series last year and then took four of six in the first round of the playoffs.  Columbus goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is just 4-6 with a 3.09 GAA and overall the Jackets are allowing 3.47 GPG, ranked 24th. 

The pick: Washington is No. 1 in scoring at 3.64 GPG and first on the power play with a 34 percent conversation rate. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: The Temple Owls were 17-16 last year, but they’re expected to take a step forward this season and they got things started off on the “right foot” with a 75-67 home win over La Salle. Detroit was 8-24 last year and it enters off a listless 89-76 loss to WMU in its opener. Things aren’t going to get any easier on the Mercy tonight, as the Owls love to get out and push the pace. The Titans lost three of their four top scorers from last year and I have a hard time seeing this year’s unit keeping pace with Temple. 

The pick; The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. Look for Temple’s Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr. to dominate and lay the points with confidence.

The set-up: LA enters off a satisfying 120-109 home win over the wolves on Monday and I think it’ll now predictably stumble in this difficult road venue. The Blazers continue to roll at home most recently getting the better of the Bucks 118-103 on Tuesday. The Clippers are averaging 116.2 PPG and they’re allowing 109.8. Portland is averaging 117.3 PPG an fit’s allowing only 107.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Lay the points and expect a rout!

The set-up: Both teams come in rolling. Carolina enters off three straight wins, most recently a 42-28 victory over Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh has won four straight, most recently a 23-16 win over Baltimore. These teams are very similar, with dynamic and capable QB’s who each have plenty of weapons to utilize. But Newton has struggled against the elite defenses throughout his career and I think that trend carries over here at Heinz Field.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well the Panthers are a terrible 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Pittsburgh is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Wake Forest comes in off a loss to Syracuse and it lost its starting QB for the season in the process. Can anyone say letdown spot?! After back-to-back defeats, NC State finally bounced back with a destruction of FSU at home in its latest action, becoming bowl eligible in the process. Wake forest is averaging 32.2 PPG, but with QB Sam Hartman went down with injury mid-way though and because of that, I’m expecting the Demon Deacons to struggle to keep up with the Wolfpack. NC State is giving up just 25.5 PPG, while averaging 32.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 in this series, while Wake is now just 1-5 ATS in its last six conference contests. Wake has struggled against superior competition this year and nothing is going to change here. Lay the points. 

The set-up: Buffalo enters off a 3-1 road loss to the Rangers, while Montreal enters off a 5-3 road loss to the Rangers as well. But I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked here. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the Habs after the Sabres took the first meeting at home 4-3. 

The pick: The Sabres have lost four of their last five. Overall they’re averaging 2.87 GPG and allowing 2.92. Montreal is averaging 3.07 GPG and it’s allowing 3.00. Take it for what you will though, but Montreal is 6-2 in its last eight when playing on one days rest, while Buffalo is just 45-103 in its last 148 vs. teams with winning records. Great price, play on the Habs.

The set-up: Siena enters hungry after falling 77-67 to Providence in its Opener on Tuesday. The Saints would lose the rebound battle by a 31-23 margin. Evan Fisher was a bright spot in the setback with 11 points, six boards and three assists. Siena has a new coach and new faces, but its loaded with talent none-the-less.

The Colonials enter 0-1 as well, but I think they come in dwelling on what could have been after falling 77-74 in OT to the Stony Brook Seawolves on Tuesday. George Washington lost the rebound battle as well 17-12, while also committing 17 turnovers. Arnalda Toro had 13 points and 11 boards. 

The pick: It’s a rebuilding year for each team, but note that the Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. George Washington is still reeling from the opening night loss and while I won’t call for the outright, I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Grab the points.

The set-up: Nashville enters off a 1-00 home win over Boston, while Colorado will look to get back on track after a 7-6 OT road loss to Vancouver. Nashville has had the Avs “number” of late, winning all four regular season games last year, and then going on to knock off Colorado in six games of the first round of the playoffs. Nashville is the top defensive team in the league, allowing only 2.14 GPG. Pekka Rinne is 5-1 with a 1.68 GAA and he’s 2-0 with a 2.18 GAA on the road. Colorado is ranked second in scoring with 3.71 GPG, but it’s been decent defensively as well by allowing 2.79. Avs’ net minder Semyon Varlamov is 2-2 with a 1.76 GAA at home thus far. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Nashville has seen the total go “under” in 15 of its last 23 road games when the total is set at six or higher, while Colorado has seen the total go “under” in 13 of its last 21 after playing three consecutive road games. Play the “under.” 

The set-up: Denver enters off a 115-107 home win over Boston on Monday, having to play from behind most of the game and then pulling away down the stretch for the another win and cover. The Nuggets have been the biggest surprise in the early going, but I think they’re going to run out of gas here against a Grizzlies team which may only be 5-4 overall, but which is a perfect 3-0 at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is still just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after three or more consecutive victories, while Memphis is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 after plaint three consecutive road games. Grab the points.

The set-up: Ohio is on a roll and that’s not going to stop this weekend facing the RedHawks, who just lost 51-42 to Buffalo. The Bobcats are rolling across the board, , most recently winning 52-14 and 59-14 over WMU as a three-point dog last weekend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio has seen the total go “over” the number in both games that it’s played so far this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in three of its last four off a win against a conference rival, while the RedHawks have seen the total go “over” in four of five as an underdog already this year (and in four of their last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range). The RedHawks desperately need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. With each team pushing the pace, I’m expecting this one to soar “over” sooner, rather than later.

The setup: The Herd finished 25-11 last year and the Colonels were 11-20. Marshall was 12-6 in C-USA play. It would then win the C-USA Tournament, before then taking down Wichita State in the NCAA Tournament, before then falling to WVU in the second round. Marshall lost some talent of course, but it’s added some top recruits in Cameron Brooks-Harris and Jeremy Dillon. EKU finished 5-13 in the OVC and it missed the conference tournament for a third straight year. The Colonels have two seniors back in Kirkland Humphrey and Nick Mayo, but EKU is once again expected to struggle this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is 6-2 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Eastern Kentucky is just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: It’s the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats and I think the SEC school will find a way to get the job done here. The Blue Devils were 29-8 in ACC play last year, while the Wildcats finished 26-11 in SEC action. Last year Duke averaged 84.4 PPG and it allowed 69.6. Kentucky averaged 76.8 PPG and it allowed 70.2. 

The picks: Duke may have the “flashier/bigger” names on its roster, but John Calipari’s team is loaded with talent as well and I don’t think they’re getting nearly enough respect here. Duke’s young recruits get their first real test here and I think they came up just short. Play on Kentucky.

Writeup: The set-up: Kent State comes in off a 35-28 road over Bowling Green, while Buffalo hammered Miami Ohio 52-41 in its latest action. Last year the Bulls posted the 27-13 road victory at Kent State. On paper, clearly the Bulls have the advantage (the Golden Flashes average 24.3 PPG and allow 34.2, while Buffalo is averaging 34.9 PPG, while allowing 23.4. 

The pick: But winning leads to complacency and I do indeed think the Bulls get caught “looking past” their opponent today. Note that Kent State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 11 to 23 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Oilers come into this one “dog tired” after their game in Washington last night. TB comes in off back-to-back victories and faces a very favorable part of its schedule, with the game against the weary Oilers tonight, followed by home games vs. the Isles and Sens. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Oilers are just 2-7 in their last nine in the second game of a back to back as an underdog in the -175 to -200 range. Lay the price.

The set-up: No need to over think this one in my opinion, as Dallas comes in “dog tired” after a tough game in Boston on Monday night. The Blue Jackets look to take advantage and break a two-game slide.

The pick: With a game in the nation’s capital up next, Tuesday’s contest takes on added importance for the Blue Jackets. Take it for what you will as well, but Columbus is 7-2 in its last nine following a two games or more unbeaten streak. Lay the price.

The set-up: Memphis is expected to rest some starters in Phoenix on Sunday night, so that it’ll be more fresh for this important game in Golden State on Monday night. After a slow start the Grizzlies have looked a lot a better of late. The Warriors though will look to take advantage of this potentially tired visiting side, while also building on their seven game win streak. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 13 as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while Golden State has seen the total go “over” in four of five already this season following a loss by ten points or more. With the home side pushing the pace, look for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: Philadelphia is just 6-7-1 overall, but it’s 4-3-1 on the road. Arizona is 7-5-0 overall and 4-2-0 at home. The Flyers have seen the O/U going 6-4 so far this season, while the Coyotes have seen it go 4-6. Off a 4-3 OT loss at San Jose and playing the first game of a home and home set before returning to Philadelphia, I’m expecting the Flyers to push the pace here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Coyotes have seen the total go “over” in seven of their last nine following a four games or more unbeaten streak. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: Both teams come off their bye weeks. Tennessee lost 20-19 in England in its final game before its bye, while Dallas fell 20-17 in Washington in Week 7. Both teams need a win and I think each will be looking to establish the run from the “get go.” As a result, expect this total to sneak under the number at the end of the night. 

The pick: Both teams feature a couple of QB’s who are better at “managing” the game, than “blowing it wide open.” They also feature two very strong RB’s in the Titans’ Derrick Henry and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot. Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six already this year as an underdog, while Dallas has seen the total go “under” in six of its last nine non-conference games. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: With a game at Washington on Wednesday and off three straight losses, including a humbling 5-0 loss to the Leafs on Saturday night, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the home side tonight. New Jersey on the other hand is 0-4-0 on the road and it comes in off three straight losses itself. But with a tough game tomorrow night in Ottawa, I think the visitors also get caught “looking ahead” to that difficult contest.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last nine home games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. Lay the price, expect a rout.

The set-up: The Blue Jackets come to town off a 4-1 loss to LA on the road, while the Ducks come in off a listless 3-2 home shootout setback to the lowly Rangers. With both teams pushing the pace and looking to get back into the winners circle, the overall situation of this contest sets up as more of a high-scoring “shootout,” than a lower-scoring goaltenders battle. 

The pick: Note that Columbus has seen the total go “over” the number in four of six already this year against teams with losing records, while Anaheim has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six in the same position. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: I think Aaron Rodgers and the stumbling Green Bay Packers can keep this one respectable on Sunday night. Green Bay came up just short in a massive upset in LA last weekend and with their backs against the wall, I think the Packers bring that same intensity here on Sunday night. The Pats have won three straight and are off a short week after hammering the Bills in Buffalo on Monday night. 

The teams: Packers’ QB Aaron Jones had 86 yards and a TD last week. Rodgers was his usual dominant self and the defense was decent considering the opponent, posting five sacks and eight QB hits. 

New England wasn’t challenged last week. It didn’t need starting RB Sony Michale last weekend, but I think his absence this Sunday will be more significant against this desperate visiting side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just already just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in playing well, but I think the extra week off to rest and prepare for this one will be the difference for Philip Rives and the visiting Chargers.

The teams: LA comes in on top form having won four straight, most recently a 20-19 win over the Titans in London. Rivers has 2,009 passing yards and an elite 17/3 TD:INT

Seattle has won four of five after an 0-2 start. But after sweeping a two game road trip, including a 28-14 victory in Detroit last Sunday, I think the Hawks suffer a predictable letdown here on the return to friendly soil. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three following its bye, while Seattle is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins. Play on LA.

The set-up: After their 146-115 road rout in Atlanta, I think the surging 6-3 Kings take a step back on the offensive side today. Milwaukee enters off its first loss of the season in a tough 117-113 road setback in Boston and it’ll now look to avoid a letdown here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins and in nine of its last 15 following a victory by ten points or more, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” in its last three when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 230. These are two young teams which like to get out and push the pace from start to finish and while this can still be a high-scoring affair, I look for this total to say “under” this sky-high number in the end.

The set-up: Washington comes in dog tired here after three straight victories, while the Falcons return to action fresh off their bye week and two straight victories. I expect the visitors to sneak away with an outright victory today. 

The teams: The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the hurting Falcons. Atlanta still has plenty of injury issues to deal with, but Matt Ryan and his WR core remains in tact and I think the unit will be a difference maker this afternoon. 

The Redskins comes in off a 20-13 win over the lowly Giants, with aging RB Adrian Peterson going for a season-high 149 yards. Suffice it to say, I don’t think AP is going to match that pace again in back-to-back weeks. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but ATL is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival. I like a rested Ryan to pull off the upset Sunday afternoon.

The set-up: Detroit enters off a 28-14 home loss to Seattle, while Minnesota comes in off a 30-20 home loss to the Saints. 

The teams: The Lions last road game ended in a 32-21 Week 6 victory in Miami. While it struggled against the Seahawks last week, I think Detroit will have its opportunities today against Vikes’ defense which has been exposed. Overall the Lions are averaging 24.4 points and allowing 26.6. 

Minnesota is averaging 24.6 PPG and allowing 24.4. Kirk Cousins remains a bright spot on the team with a 16/4 TD/INT, but the once vaunted league leading defense is now firmly planted in the middle of the pack.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes are just 1-4 ATS the last five in this series, while the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. Detroit has played well on the road this year, averaging 27.7 PPG away from friendly confines. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Browns will be leaving everything on the field today as they look to snap a three-game slide. KC enters off a 30-23 home victory over Denver, while Cleveland fell 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. 

The teams: After their loss the Pats, the Chiefs come in having won two straight. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and they allow 25.6. Patrick Mahomes had four TD passes and an an INT last week. So far the Chiefs have been up to the task each week, but it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly opponent today.

The Browns have been trying hard each week, but so far that effort hasn’t translated into many wins or offensive production. Cleveland averages 21.1 PPG and it concedes 26.2. RB Nick Chubb had 65 rushing yards last week.

The pick: Note that KC has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as a favorite and in 13 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Cleveland has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home and in three of four already as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Pittsburgh lost 26-14 in this matchup at home earlier in the year and I think it’ll have its hands full in this hostile environment Sunday as well. The Steelers are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it’s all hands on deck this week for Baltimore after losing three of its last four, including a 36-21 setback at Carolina last weekend. 

The teams: The Steelers are averaging 418.1 YPG on offense, while allowing 359.7 YPG. Note there’s a major concern about QB Ben Roethlisberger who fractured his index finger on his left hand. 

Baltimore is only allowing 293.8 YPG. The offense is averaging 379.3 YPG. Last week the defense struggled against Cam Newton, but the unit catches a break this week facing the lumbering (and now injured) Roethlisberger. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more SU losses. I’m banking on the more desperate team getting the job done today. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Flyers enter off a 5-2 road win over LA and I think they’ll have their hands full here today against a Sharks side looking to rebound at home after a 4-1 loss at Columbus. And note that San Jose already smoked Philadelphia 8-2 earlier in the year. Philly is averaging three goals per game and allowing 3.8. Goaltender Brian Elliot is 4-5 with a poor 3.10 GAA. San Jose has lost two in a row, most recently a 4-1 setback to the Blue Jackets. The home side sends Martin Jones in net and he’s 5-3-1 with a sharp 2.66 GAA. San Jose comes in averaging 3.2 GPG and allowing 2.9.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 4-1 in its last five following a loss by three goals or more, while Philadelphia is 0-8 in its last eight after scoring five or or more goals in its previous game. I think the home side bounces back in this favorable spot. Lay the price.

The set-up: The Irish look to remain undefeated after knocking off Navy last weekend. Northwestern has already knocked off two ranked foes this year, but I think the Wildcats will come up short here against Notre Dames complete team.

The teams: Notre Dame posted 584 total yards of offense against a hungry Navy team last weekend. A perfect season is in the Irish’s grasp, but they’ll have to stay focused now and take it one game at a time. 

Northwestern managed three fumble recoveries against Wisconsin, but RB Isaiah Brewer was one of the lone bright spots on offense with 117 yards and a TD. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five following a victory, while the Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a win by 20 points or more. Notre Dame is on a mission and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas this weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: Missouri comes in off a 15-14 loss to Kentucky last Saturday, while Florida enters off a 36-17 beatdown loss at the hands of Georgia. If recent history is any precedence, then Missouri has to be liking its chances today as in last year’s matchup it won 45-16.

The teams: Missouri is averaging 35.5 PPG and it’s allowing 28.9. QB Drew Lock has 2,144 passing yards with 16 TD’s and six INT’s. 

Florida is averaging 32.2 PPG and it’s allowing 19. QB Feleipe Franks has 16 TD’s and six INT’s so far this season. Last weekend the Gators came back down to earth, turning the ball over three times, while not forcing one themselves.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games in which it was held to points or less in its previous game and lost, while Florida is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after scoring 17 points or less in a loss in its previous outing. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments!

The set-up: Cincinnati is 7-1 and it comes in complacent at home in my opinion, leaving the backdoor open for the 2-6 Navy Midshipmen, who come in off tough setbacks to SMU, Air Force, Temple, Houston and Notre Dame. 

The teams: It’s do or die for Navy, as it’ll have to run the board starting now to become eligible. An outright win? Likely not. But after four straight losses and with the season on the line, we do not have to doubt the Mids motivation levels this afternoon.

The Bearcats barely managed to get past SMU 26-20 in OT last weekend. Coach Luke Fickell has his team trending in the correct direction and while the Bearcats will most likely go on to win this game, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a mental letdown. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Navy is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Cincinnati is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I’m banking on the desperation levels that the Mids bring to the table today to keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

The set-up: If recent history is any precedence then Purdue has to be liking it chances today, because it would win this matchup last year on the road by a score of 24-15. Iowa comes in off a 30-24 loss to Penn State, while Purdue lost 23-13 to MSU on the road last weekend.

The teams: Iowa is averaging 29.8 PPG and conceding 16.1. QB Nate Stanley had a horrible game against PSU, going for 20 yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. 

Purdue is averaging 32.9 PPG and it’s allowing 22.8. Previous to last week’s loss at Michigan State, QB David Blough and the Boilermakers’ offense ha score 40-plus points in each of their previous three victories. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as all, but Purdue is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game, while Iowa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more. I like the Boilermakers to bounce back at home after last week’s tough road loss. Lay the points.

The set-up: NC State looks ripe for the picking here after back to back losses to Clemson and Syracuse. The Seminoles will be out to atone for their embarrassing 59-10 setback at home to Clemson last weekend. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do believe the stage is set for a competitive battle. 

The teams: The Seminoles looked terrible offensively last week, as QB Deondre Francois was sacked five times and he’d finish with just 180 yards and an INT. The Seminoles though have responded well in this spot for bettors for years though, going 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 after scoring less than 20 points in their previous contest. 

Last week NC State QB Ryan Finley threw for 473 yards, three TD’s and an INT in the shootout loss to Syracuse. The Wolfpack defense has been exposed and I think it’ll have its hands full with this hungry Seminoles’ side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU/ATS loss. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”

The set-up: Detroit comes in off a disheartening 120-119 road loss in Brooklyn, while Philadelphia posted a 122-113 home victory over LA in its most recent action. Note that this is a big time revenge game for Philly after it fell 133-132 in OT in Detroit earlier in the year. 

The teams: This is the finale of a three game trip for the Pistons. Overall Detroit has already lost two of three on the road. The Pistons are averaging 109.9 PPG and allowing 110.5. 

Philadelphia is averaging 113.8 PPG and allowing 113.4. Joel Embiid had 41 points with 16 boards in the win over the Clippers. Note that the 76ers are now 5-0 on their home floor this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Philadelphia is 63-44 ATS the last two season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The 76ers’ revenge the earlier loss and continue their home dominance with another convincing victory.

The set-up: Both teams come in off disappointing records, but I expect the home side to fight until the final whistle. Georgia Tech is 2-3 in conference play, while UNC is 1-6 overall and 1-4 in ACC play. Georgia Tech has won three of its last four and it now has its eye on a bowl game, but the Tar Heels will look to play spoiler. 

The teams: Georgia Tech is averaging 38.9 PPG and it’s allowing 28.3. QB Tobias Oliver had 215 yards and three TD’s in last Thursday’s 49-28 win. TaQuon Marshall returns from injury to retain his starting RB role this week though. 

UNC feel 31-21 at Virginia last weekend. QB Nathan Elliot had 271 yards and two TD’s, but a late fumble proved costly. Overall the Tar Heels are averaging 23 PPG and allowing 34.3. 

The pick: Note though that Georgia Tech is a terrible 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite and 0-3 ATS in its last three when playing with eight days rest, while UNC is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a loss against a conference rival. Grab the points.

The set-up: Ohio State lost to Purdue and star DE Nick Bosa has withdrawn to concentrate on the NFL Draft. The Buckeyes have had a week off to ponder their upcoming fate and I think that “rest” will in fact lead to “rust” in this case. 

The teams: Nebraska started the year 0-6, but it comes in with some momentum off back-to-back victories, including beating Minnesota at home and then a 45-9 smash job of Bethune Cookman last weekend. QB Adrian Martinez had two TD’s and an INT. Overall the Huskers are averaging 29.8 PPG and allowing 33.4. 

The Buckeyes are averaging 43 PPG and allowing 22.9. Note though that they’ve given up 28.8 PPG average over the past four weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins was 49 of 73 for 470 yards two TD’s and an INT in the loss to the Boilermakers.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Nebraska is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 45 points or more in its previous outing. I’m banking on the Buckeyes “looking past” their opponent today. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Wolves come in off an epic 128-125 win over the Jazz, a game in which Derrick Rose scored 50 points. Can anyone say letdown spot? Rose isn’t going to score 50 again for the rest of his career and I think the Warriors will look to take advantage of this tired visiting side. The Warriors are firing on all cylinders right now as well, as guard Stephen Curry is averaging a career-high 33 points, 5.9 assists and 5.0 boards per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Minnesota is just 8-20 in its last 28 on the road and interestingly only 3-7 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: WKU has just one win on the year (against lowly Ball State) and it comes in having lost four in a row. MTSU will look to take advantage and to build off back-to-back wins over ODU and Charlotte.

The teams: WKU is averaging only 19.8 PPPG and it’s allowing 30. The Hilltoppers are now essentially eliminated from bowl contention and with that fact weighing heavily on the team collectively, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here.

MTSU QB Brent Stockstill will look to build off another efficient game, last week going for 280 yards with two TD’s and one INT. RB Terell West exploded for 120 yards and a major score as well. 

The pick: Note as well that the Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records (the home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four in this series), while WKU is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points.

The set-up: This game is being played in Finland. The Jets took the first game yesterday by a score of 4-2, but I think that 2-7 Florida will bounce back here and find a way to score the minor upset. Previous to come to Helsinki Winnipeg had lost three of four. 

The pick: This game features two back up goaltenders, so that department is a “wash.” Interesting to note though that Florida is 6-2 in its last eight after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest and playing the second game of a back-to-back. I’m banking on the desperate Panthers to find a way to get the job done. Lay the bigger price for the extra 1.5 goals.

The set-up: Oakland comes in off its third straight loss, a 42-28 setback at home to the Colts. Derek Carr and company are just playing for pride at this point. So too are the 49ers, who have lost six straight, most recently an 18-15 setback on the road to Arizona. With nothing to play, on the short week and with each side dealing with injuries, points are going to be at a premium in my opinion. 

The teams: The Raiders have already shelved RB Marshawn Lynch after he had surgery last week. Oakland also made some moves in its bye week, trading star receiver Amari Cooper to Dallas for a first round pick. Winning this Thursday night game is not of the greatest importance to this team right now.

The 49ers season went down the toilet when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury. The 49ers have seen four of their losses come by eight points or less, a testament their defensive and special teams play. 

The pick: The 49ers have been solid against the run and the Raiders have pretty much abandoned their ground game. The visitors offense is extremely one dimensional and I think the home side’s talented defensive unit will easily be able to make the adjustments to make things difficult on Carr from start to finish. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under.

The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Sacramento has exceeded expectations to this point, sitting at 5-3 overall and 3-2 on the road. But after four straight wins and back-to-back on the road and with two whole nights off before a game at East leading Milwaukee, there’s no question in my mind that this finally sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. Clearly the Hawks don’t have the same luxury, as they’re 2-5 and they’ve lost three in a row. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a three games or more unbeaten streak. Play on the Hawks.

The set-up: UCF puts the nation’s longest winning streak on the line tonight and while I’m not calling for the straight up outright loss, but I think the home side will have its hands full with the division co-leader tonight, who clearly won’t be going down without a fight. 

The teams: Temple is 5-3 overall, but 4-0 in league play. Last time out it knocked off previously unbeaten Cincinnati 24-17. QB Anthony Russo finished three INT’s, but he also had three TD’s. During the Owls three game win streak he’s thrown eight of nine TD passes while posting 791 yards through the air. 

UCF is averaging 44.4 PPG. QB McKenzie Milton was held out of last week’s win over the Pirates, ending a string of 27 consecutive starts. Note that his status for this game is uncertain as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF has struggled mightily in the month of November, going just 1-5 ATS in its last six during that period, while Temple is 41-18 ATS in its last 59 on the road. I think the Owls have a legitimate shot at winning outright, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as may points as you can. Play on Temple.

The set-up: Ohio is 3-1 in conference play, while WMU is 4-1. The MAC West division race is wide open and I smell a small upset in the air on Thursday night.

The teams: WMU lost 51-24 to Toledo last time out, breaking a six-game slide. In that contest star QB Jon Wassink left early in the first quarter with injury. Wassink missed the final four games of 2017 as well and the Broncos would finish 1-3. Overall WMU is averaging 35 PPG and allowing 30.9. 

Ohio though comes in surging, it won its second straight conference game in a 52-14 blowout victory over Ball State. AJ Ouellette had 135 yards and two scores. QB Nathan Rourke had 127 yards passing and a TD as well. Overall the Bobcats are averaging 38.3 PPG while allowing 28.9.

The pick: Ohio though has held its last four opponents to under 27 points. Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while WMU is only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 at home, including only 1-3 ATS this season. 

The set-up: Pittsburgh’s four game win streak in which it scored 24 goals and allowed six, came to an end in a 6-3 home loss to these very Islanders on Tuesday night. Can anyone say “payback time?!” 

The pick: And there’s no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for New York which comes in off three straight victories on the road. Take it for what you will as well, but the Pens are 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing six or more goals in the first game of a home and home set in which they lost. Lay the price and expect a blowout.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. After two straight losses, including a setback to the Blazers on Monday night, I think the Pacers come in focused on the task at hand here. New York on the other hand comes in content off a 115-96 victory over the Nets to move to 2-5. With three nights off before a two-game road trip, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a loss in which it scored 95 points or less. Play on the Pacers.

The set-up: Toledo broke a two-game slide with a big win over WMU last Thursday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Ball State comes in on the other end of the spectrum, off back-to-back losses to EMU and Ohio. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.

The teams: Ball State rushed for just 80 yards and threw for only 162 in last week’s crushing 52-14 loss to Ohio. QB Riley Neal left in the second quarter with injury and he’s out for this one as well.

Toldeo’ QB Mitch Guadagni also suffered an injury in last week’s 51-24 blowout win over WMU last week, meaning Eli Peters is the “main man.” Last week he was 8 of 14 for 107 yards and three TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toledo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 against teams with losing records, while Ball State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: Buffalo has a perfect conference record, but Miami Ohio won’t be going down without a fight tonight. The Redhawks enter off a tough 31-30 double-OT road loss to Army, while Buffalo gutted out a 31-17 road victory over Toledo. Note that when these teams met last year it was Miami Ohio which posted the 24-14 home victory.

The teams: Miami Ohio’ QB Gus Ragland has 1,769 passing yards and a 14/3 TD:INT. The Redhawks offense revolves around their strong run game though, led by Alonzo Smith, who has 342 rushing yards. Overall the Redhawks are averaging 26.2 PPG and allowing 24.9.

Buffalo is averaging 32.9 PPG and it’s allowing 21.1. QB Tyree Jackson was 1,869 passing yards with a 20/8 TD:INT, but note that he’s thrown five INT’s over his last three games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 following its bye week, while Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. The Redhawks’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now and I think the unit keeps the visitors competitive late. Grab the points.

The set-up: If recent history is any precedence, then the Falcons have to be liking their chances tonight, as they took this game on the road last year by a score of 44-16. Kent enters off a 24-23 OT loss to Akron at home, while Bowling Green lost 49-14 at Ohio. Both teams are 0-4 in league play.

The teams: KSU averages 23 PPG, while allowing 35. Last week the Golden Flashes allowed the Zips to convert 10 of 19 third down chances.

Bowling Green is averaging 25.6 PPG, while allowing 47.8. The Falcons have been worse on the defensive side of the ball than their counterpart this year, but better on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege is the difference maker for me today though, he so far has 2,078 yards passing with a decent 19/8 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bowling Green is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a three games or more unbeaten streak in conference action and as an underdog in the +1 to +3.5 points range. Play on the Falcons.

The set-up: The Devils broke a three-game slide with a 3-2 home win over the Panthers, but I think they’ll come up short in the opener of this tough Eastern swing, with upcoming games Detroit on Thursday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. Tampa is already 4-1 at home this year and there’s no reason not to think it can’t keep the momentum rolling.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Jersey is a terrible 32-52 (-9 units) the last two season against teams with winning records, while tampa Bay is 24-7 (+11.7 units) in its last 31 when playing with two days rest. Overall a great price in my opinion. Play on the Bolts.

The set-up: Here’s a fantastic “situational” play. The Hawks are in action on Monday night against the 76ers. Cleveland will look to take advantage and get off the schneid as it enters 0-6 overall, including 0-3 at home. One of those losses includes a 133-111 setback to these very Hawks just last week.

The pick: The King isn’t around anymore, but I still think it’s worth noting that the Cavs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a three games or more SU losing streak. The situation and the numbers favor the home side. Lay the points.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Miami has been solid in the early going, but with a game at home against the Kings on Monday, look for the visitors to rest some of their starters in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte already beat the Heat 113-112 early in the year, but after losing three of its last four, I’m expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back when playing that second contest on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, lay the points.

The set-up: Tom Brady is 28-3 all time against Buffalo and while he won’t have offensive star TE Rob Gronkowski in the line-up, I still believe the all star will have more than enough to take care of the lowly (and injured) Bills.

The teams: After a 1-2 start the Pats come in having won four straight. Last week Brady threw for 277 yards and three TD’s in the victory over the Bears. WR Josh Gordon had four catches for 100 yards. Sony Michel is also expected to sit this one out, so expect to see a heavy dose of James White.

The Bills are dealing with several injuries, including at QB. Buffalo is already planning ahead to next year and I believe it’ll simply go through the motions tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Pats are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 after two or more consecutive victories, while Buffalo is just 10-13 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as I expect the Kings to have a predictable letdown here after back-to-back home victories. After beating Washington 116-112 they Kings have had two nights off and with a game tomorrow night in Orlando, this contest also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the visitors. The Heat look to take advantage, they’ve won two in a row and with a tough road trip starting tomorrow night in Charlotte, I’m expecting the home side to leave everything it has on the floor tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after two or more SU/ATS victories. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: I think the Wizards will find a way to get the job done here. Washington is 1-4 SU/ATS and desperate for a victory after back-to-back road losses to the Warriors and Kings. LA on the other hand looks poised for a classic letdown here though in my opinion after its big 133-113 road win at Houston. And with a three-game road trip starting in OKC on Tuesday, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back road SU losses. Play on the Wizards.

The set-up: New Orleans comes in off a 24-23 road win over Baltimore, the league’s No. 1 defense, while Minnesota enters of a 37-17 dismantling of the Jets. These teams battled to a higher-scoring affair in the playoffs last year as well, with Minnesota eventually prevailing 29-24.

The teams: The Saints are averaging the second most points in the league, which is a good thing as the defense has regressed from last season, allowing 27.2 PPG. Drew Brees has an insane 13/0 TD/INT ratio and a QBR of 121.6.

Minnesota is averaging 25.3 PPG and and while it’s fifth in the league against the run defensively, it’s only 16th against the pass. Clearly that doesn’t bode particularly well facing the red hot Brees and company.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes have seen the “over” go 5-2 in their last seven following a SU victory. Both teams are “firing on all cylinders” offensively. Play the “over.”

The set-up: I believe the overall situation favors the Knights so much in this one, that I do indeed have no issues at all in laying this larger price. After three straight wins the Senators have now lost two straight. But with much more “winnable” games upcoming at Arizona and then a home and home set with Buffalo, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead.” Vegas has struggled as well this season after its Cinderella run last year, but after back-to-back losses to Vancouver and TB and with a tough road game starting in Nashville on Tuesday, I expect the home side to leave everything it has on the ice this evening.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Knights are 7-2 in their last nine home games following a two games or more losing streak. Lay the -1.5.

The set-up: Oakland only has one victory on the season and I think it’ll struggle containing Andrew Luck, who continues to gain confidence each week, despite being undermanned on both sides of the ball.

The teams: Luck had 156 yards and four TD’s in last week’s blowout win at home over the hapless Bills. Marlon Mack ran for 126 yards and a TD. Luck is getting improved play from his offensive line and I think that progression continues this week in what sets up as another favorable matchup.

Oakland coach Jon Gruden was signed to a ten year contract, so he’s gutting the team and rebuilding it the way he sees fit. Gruden’s indecision across the board has hurt the team in the short-term and probably in the long-term as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing home record. I like Luck to lay the hammer down and further expose Gruden’s complete ineptitude. Lay the points.

The set-up: Denver enters off a 45-10 win over Arizona and I think it’ll have its chances today against the Chiefs vanilla defense. Kansas City enters off a 45-10 win over Cincinnati, one week after coming up short in New England. Note that this is a revenge game for Denver after the Chiefs posted a 27-23 road win in Week 4.

The teams: Denver is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing 23.4. QB Case Keenum has 1,848 passing yards and an 8/9 TD:INT. The defense dominated last week, limiting the Cards to just 223 total yards.

KC is averaging 37.1 PPG and allowing 26. Patrick Mahomes has been unbelievable with 2,223 passing yards and a 22/5 TD:INT, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with this veteran Broncos defense.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. Denver took the Chiefs best shot they had and almost prevailed. I’m expecting a similar “war” here as well. Grab the points.

The set-up: Chicago is 3-3 and in desperate need of a victory this week to keep pace in the competitive NFC North. Thankfully the Jets are coming to town, as New York continues to deal with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion.

The teams: The Bears enter off a 38-31 loss to the Pats, as QB Mitch Trubisky continued his fine season with 333 passing yards and two TD’s. Chicago remains one of the best on the defensive side of the ball and Khalil Mack and company look poised for a big night against the Jets patchwork front.

Jets’ QB Sam Darnold was just 17 of 42 for 206 yards, one TD and three INT’s in last week’s blowout loss to the Vikes. The Jets also lost the services of RB Bilal Powell to injury.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games played on “grass,” while Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 at home and 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. Lay the points.

The set-up: Pittsburgh has won two straight, but I think it’ll have enough of a “letdown” here to let the hungry Browns sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Cleveland comes in off a tight 26-23 OT loss to Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh scored the difficult 28-21 road win over the Bengals. Note that these teams played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1.

The teams: Cleveland is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 25.3. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,291 passing yards and a 6/5 TD:INT. The Browns looked sharp defensively, posting four sacks and two INT’s against the high-flying Bucs.

Pittsburgh is averaging 28.5 PPG, but it’s allowing 25.7. QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,033 passing yards and a mediocre 12:6 TD/INT on the season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine following a SU win, while Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS the last four in this series. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab the points.

The set-up: SDSU comes in on top form having won six straight and I look for it to keep the momentum rolling. Nevada broke a two-game slide against Hawaii in its latest outing, but I have a hard time seeing the Wolf Pack keeping pace with the Aztecs down the stretch.

The pick: Nevada is getting much better play in Jay Norvell’s second year as head coach (4-4 so far this season), but note that the Wolf Pack are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten against teams with winning records and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a SU victory. The Aztecs are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Also note that SDSU is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. The Wolf Pack have been a pleasant surprise, but I think they’re completely outclassed here. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Canucks fell flat in Arizona last time out and they come into this one suffering through some significant injuries. Pittsburgh on the other hand comes in on top form and off a resounding 7-0 beatdown of the Flames on Thursday night. I think the massive talent discrepancy on both ends of the ice tonight make Pittsburgh well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last nine road games after scoring six or more goals in its previous outing. Lay the price.

The set-up: Washington has a lot of work ahead of it if it hopes to be invited to the College Football Playoff. It’s going to have to sweep the table and I think it’ll get things started with a big victory on the road against Cal. The Golden Bears return home off a 49-7 win over Oregon State. 

The teams: The Huskies come in off a 27-13 win over Colorado last week. QB Jake Browning had 150 yards passing with one TD and one INT. RB Salvon Ahmed had 73 yards and a TD as well. Through six games Washington is averaging 28.6 PPG and allowing only 15.6. 

Cal is averaging 26.7 PPG and it’s allowing 24. RB Chase Garbers had 234 passing yards and three TD’s last week. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cal is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as as road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Terps come in off a 23-0 loss at Iowa, while Illinois fell 49-20 on the road at Wisconsin last weekend.

The teams: Illinois has struggled against the “better” conference competition this season, but it did smash Rutgers 38-17 on the road. The Illini also has a much more favorable schedule moving forward, vs. Maryland this weekend and then Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. The defense hasn’t been terrible either with 15 turnovers created through six games.

Maryland looked decent defensively in last weeks’ loss, holding the Hawkeyes to 310 total yards. But the offense was held to just seven first downs and 115 total yards. QB Kasim Hill has a weak 51.7 percent completion rate.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland is interestingly just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous games, while Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss. The Terps offense is broken. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

The set-up: USC is short-handed and deflated after last week’s 41-28 road loss to Utah. USC is likely down to third-string QB Jack Sears as well. ASU is in last place in the South in the Pac 12 and it most recently comes in off a hard-fought 20-13 setback to Stanford.

The teams: ASU held the Cardinal to 358 total yards last week, but three costly turnovers proved to be the difference. Overall QB Manny Wilkins was competitive though, accounting for 394 yards of total offense.

The uncertainty at QB doesn’t bode well for a Trojans’ offense that’s still reeling from last week’s loss. Additionally note that USC is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss.

The pick: On the year Wilkins has 1,799 passing yards with 11 TD’s and only two INT’s. ASU is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. I think the Trojans’ frustrating trend of “playing down” to the level of its competition continues this weekend. Grab the points.

The set-up: UNC enters hungry off a 40-37 road loss to Syracuse in OT to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Virginia comes in off a 28-14 road victory over Duke to move to 3-1 in league play. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tar Heels after the Cavs took last years contest on the road 20-14.

The teams: In last week’s loss the Tar Heels put up 500 yards of offense, including 321 through the air. QB Nathan Elliot had 321 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. The defense looked terrible, but the Cavs rank as one of the worst passing teams in the country.

Virginia gets the job done with tough defensive play, ranked 20th in points allowed with just 18.4. But the Tar Heels won’t be rolling over and UNC’s offense comes in on top form. Bryce Perkins has been decent, not great this season (but he hasn’t had to be, simply to manage.)

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games in which it gave up 40 points or more and lost in OT in its previous outing. No outright, but much closer than expected. Play on North Carolina.

The set-up: Both teams have been decent to open the season, but I think the Avs are worth the price of admission here. Colorado comes in off a tough 1-0 home loss to the Lightning, so they’ll be looking to make the most of this opportunity before embarking on a tough road trip starting tomorrow night in Minnesota. Ottawa on the other hand saw its three game unbeaten streak come to an end in a 4-1 setback to Boston in its last outing (the end of a six-game home stretch) and everything points to a letdown here in the opener of this extended road trip as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Colorado is 7-2 in its last nine home games after being shutout in its previous contest. Lay the -1.5.

The set-up: Down 0-2 and with their backs against the proverbial wall, I look for the Dodgers to find a way to get the job done in Game 3 and with the shift in venue to friendly confines. The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler.

The pitchers: Porcello makes his third start of the playoffs, last pitching in Game 4 against the Astros, given yup four runs over four innings.

Buehler has allowed ten runs over 16 innings in three playoff appearances this year. Buehler though was 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 137.1 frames of work this season and I think he’ll settle down at Chavez Ravine.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine night home games in which they’ve lost two or more games in a row previous. It’s do or die, now or never. Lay the price.

The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. Toronto has been on fire this year, opening up at 4-0 and getting fantastic play from the newly acquired Kawhi Leonard, who had 35 points in the most recent victory over the Wolves. But with a couple of nights off before a tough road game at conference rival and equally as hot Milwaukee up next, I think Toronto finally suffers a bit of a mental lapse on Friday night. After two straight home wins the Mavs came out flat in the second half of their game in Atlanta on Wednesday, but with a night off before a home game against Utah, I think the Mavs come in focused on the task at hand and catch the Raptors complacent.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. Play on Dallas.

The set-up: These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I expect those trends to continues here. Louisiana Tech has won two in a row, most recently 31-24 over UTEP, while FAU has lost three of its last four.

The teams: Louisiana Tech has never had an issue putting points on the board, but it’s now gotten some better defensive play of late as well, especially from DE Jaylon Ferguson in last week’s victory, as he’d posted 3.5 sacks.

The Owls most recently come in off a humbling 31-7 loss to Marshall, which for all intents and purposes has already eliminated them from repeating as Conf-USA Champs. But FAU has been hit hard by the injury bug this year, including to defensive stand out Azeez Al-Shaair. WR Dante Cousar suffered a broken leg in the loss to Mashall.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a loss by 20 or more points, while the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records. A short week is not what the doctor ordered for FAU and while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’m going to grab the points in the end.

The set-up: Miami has lost three of its last four, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit, while Houston comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won four straight, most recently a commanding 20-7 win on the road over Jacksonville. On the short week, I believe points will be at a premium.

The teams: Miami was out gained 457-322 last week against a pretty bad Lions defense. And that doesn’t bode well this week facing a Texans’ defensive unit which is clearly “firing on all cylinders.” It wasn’t a pretty win last week by the Texans by any means, as they’d hold on for a slim 272-259 yardage edge in the victory.

The pick: Miami’s only hope on offense is to run the ball today (18th in the league in rushing, but it’s rushed for at least 100 yards in five of seven games.) Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill is injured and Brock Osweiler is “hit or miss.” The Texans have been getting the job done by letting DeShaun Watson “manage” the offense and I don’t think anything will change this week either. Note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: I think this one sets up well for the Thunder. Boston comes into this one at 2-2, as it’s so far traded good games with bad ones this year. It most recently fell 93-90 in Orlando. With a home and home set starting against Detroit on Saturday though, I think the visitors are going to get caught “looking ahead” to those more high-profile conference contests. The Thunder do not have that same luxury at all though as they come in having gone 0-3 SU and just 1-2 ATS to open the year. OKC has had three whole nights off though and they have two nights off after this contest before another one game against the lowly Suns. It’s now or never for the Thunder to start turning their season around.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the Thunder.

The set-up: App State is on the AP Top 25 for the first time in its history and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Perhaps not enough of one to completely lose this one outright, but I do expect the hungry home side to go down fighting. In the end, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The teams: App State is 5-1, while Georgia Southern is 6-1. The Mountaineers have won five in a row after an OT loss at Penn State, but the offense which had put up at least 35 points during that run, didn’t last week against the Ragin’ Cajuns. Also note that the defense, which had limited four straight opponents to single digits in scoring, would then give up 17 points to Arkansas State. The Eagles are averaging 276.6 YPG on the ground, which is ranked fifth in the entire country. I believe the home side will have its opportunities to control the pace of this contest.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but App State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after four or more SU victories. Grab the points.

The set-up: WVU comes in off a humbling loss to Iowa State and I believe it’ll take out its frustrations on the Bears. While the setback probably is the nail in the coffin for the Mountaineers playoff chances, they’ll still try to run the table from here on out and see where they stand at the end. Baylor is the perfect opponent to get untracked against in my opinion, as it looks poised for a letdown here after almost upsetting Texas two weeks ago and coming out of its bye.

The teams: A letdown here seems imminent to me for Baylor after it’s “oh-so-close” 23-17 setback to No. 9 Texas two weeks ago. The defense was decent, but the offense was once again stagnant, as QB Charlie Brewer had 240 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The run game was basically non-existent though.

Mountaineers’ QB Will Grier had an “off night” last time out, going 11 of 15 for 100 yards, one TD and one INT in the shocking loss to Iowa State. I’m not going to read too much into one crummy showing though and I do definitely expect Grier and WVU’s high-flying offense to get back on track in friendly confines and against Baylor’s suspect secondary.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS victory. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: No need to overthink this one as I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Avs, who enter at 6-1-1-1 overall and who just went 4-1 on a current road trip. With lowly Ottawa coming to town next, there’s no question that this sets up as a “trap” game for Colorado. After a tough 5-4 OT loss in Minnesota, Tampa bounced back with a 6-3 win at Chicago on Monday. But with a game in Vegas on Friday night, I expect the Lightning to take full advantage of this favorable spot.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Avs are just 2-7 in their last nine home games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. Play on the Lightning.

The set-up: After falling 8-4 in Game 1, I believe the Dodgers will respond in Game 2 with a victory behind what I believe to be the superior pitcher on the mound for them. The visitors hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu, while the home side goes with David Price.

The teams: Ryu finished the regular season 7-3 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.008 WHIP with 15 walks and 89 strikeouts over 76.1 frames of action. He’s so far 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in the playoffs.

Price went 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA in the regular season and he’s 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 12.1 post-season innings thus far.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is interestingly just 1-4 in its last five Game 2 of a series, while LA is 4-0 in its last four interleague road games vs. southpaws. Looks like we’re headed to West Coast all knotted up at one game apiece.

The set-up: Toronto has started off the year by going 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota is 2-2, but 0-2 on the road. The Wolves though offer fantastic value in an upset role in my opinion and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the Raptors are finally poised for a bit of a mental letdown here.

The pick: And that’s because note that TO is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games in which it enters on a three games or more ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Look for Minnesota’s deep and talented line-up to keep this one competitive until the final moments and grab the points.

The set-up: I think the “under the radar” Hawks offer great value in an upset role at home here. ATL is just 1-2, but it comes in off a convincing 133-111 road win over the Cavaliers. Dallas is 2-1, but off back-to-back victories and with a game at Toronto on Friday night, I do indeed expect Dallas to get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent tonight.

The pick: It’s a great situational play overall, but take it for what you will as well but the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 130 points or more and earning a victory in their previous contest. Play on Atlanta.

The set-up: Cleveland coms in as the more desperate as it’s so far 0-3 to start the year, including a humbling 133-111 home loss to Atlanta in the most recent. With a road game in Detroit tomorrow night, the Cavs will clearly be leaving everything they have on the floor tonight to try and get off the schneid. The Nets are 1-2, but with upcoming games at surging New Orleans followed by a home game against the defending champs, I absolutely believe that the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to those more “important” match-ups.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Cavs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games following a three games or more SU losing streak. Play on Cleveland.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. After their big win at home over the Warriors, the Nuggets are now 3-0 SU/ATS to start the year. But with a date against LeBron James and the Lakers on Wednesday night, there’s no doubt that this sets up as a classic “trap” for red hot Denver. And that’s good news for Sacramento, which is just 1-2 overall, but it’s been competitive in each game and it does enter off the convincing 131-120 road victory over Thunder, who had Russell Westbrook in the line-up.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 130 points or more in its previous outing. I’m grabbing the points.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Kershaw, while the home side goes with Chris Sale.

The teams: Kershaw has been good in two of three playoff starts so far, posting a 2.37 ERA and 2-1 record. He’s struggled throughout his postseason career though, posting a 4.09 ERA and 9-8 record spanning 141 career playoff frames of work.

Sale gave up two runs off four walks four four innings in a no-decision to the Astros in the ALCS. In one start in the ALDS he held the Yanks to two runs over six frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 11-2 in its last 13 Sale starts, while the Dodgers are just 1-4 in their last five following a victory. For all the reasons listed above, play on Boston.

The set-up: Troy head to Ladd-Peebles Stadium off a 22-16 road loss to Liberty, while South Alabama destroyed Alabama State 45-7. Note that this is a revenge game for the Trojans after the Jaguars scored the 19-8 road victory last year.

The teams: Troy is averaging 33.7 PPG and it’s conceding only 24.6. QB Sawyer Smith has taken over pivot duties after an injury to Kaleb Barker. RB BJ Smith was a bright spot last time out with 111 yards on 20 carries.

South Alabama is averaging 25.7 PPG and it’s allowing 39.3. QB Evan Orth has a decent 7/3 TD:INT on the season, while RB Tra Minter had 300 rushing yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but South Alabama is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 following an ATS victory and only 5-17 ATS In its last 22 following a SU win, while Troy is 7-1 ATSin its last eight on the road and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six conference contests. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Flames fell 5-3 at home to Nashville, but they got their road trip started off on the right foot with a 4-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday night. But with two nights off before back-to-back home games against Pittsburgh, Washington and then a road game at Toronto, it’s definitely not too difficult to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” here. For the Habs they had won three straight behind some rejuvenated defensive play and great goaltending, before then falling apart in a 4-3 OT loss at Ottawa. With an extended road trip started on Thursday, I think Montreal returns to form here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Habs have seen the total go “under” the number in 7 of their last 11 after allowing four or more goals in their previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.

The set-up: This sets up great from a situational stand point for Washington in my opinion. The Wizards are coming off back-to-back home losses off Miami and Toronto. Clearly Washington can’t be happy and it’ll be risking life and limb tonight to get off the schneid (especially with a game in Golden State up next!) Portland comes in on the other end of the spectrum, slightly satisfied after back-to-back home victories to open the season, including a 128-119 Opening night victory over LeBron James and the Lakers and then an equally as impressive 121-108 win over the Spurs on Saturday. But with two nights off before an extended Eastern Conference road swing, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following back-to-back SU/ATS home victories. Grab the points in a much tighter than expected affair!

The set-up: The winner of this game will keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while the loser will officially be eliminated from contention. I think home field advantage will prove to be a big difference maker in this one. Atlanta is just 2-3, but it held on for a 34-29 win over Tampa last weekend, while New York comes in with a 1-5 record.

The teams: The Giants most recently fell 34-13 at home to the Eagles. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot with 100 yards rushing and 99 yards receiving. But the tension between WR Odell Beckham Jr. and QB Eli Manning is real, as the coaching staff continues to move away from having their all star pivot from throwing down the field.

The Falcons continue to look horrible defensively, but the offense continues to put up decent numbers and I have a hard time seeing the Giants keeping pace down the stretch. Last week Matt Ryan had 354 yards passing with three TD’s. Overall he has 1,432 passing with 12 TD’s and an INT.

The pick: The good news for the Falcons? They’re only 2.5 games behind the Saints in the NFC South and this is the start of four very “winnable” games for them as well, with three contests against the NFC East and also the Cleveland Browns. Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while ATL is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Lay the points.

The set-up: I think the Jets are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The Blues got off the schneid with an upset win in Toronto on Saturday night, but I believe they’ll stumble again here in this difficult road venue. The win against the Leafs snapped a three-game slide, but with three whole nights off before an extended home stretch, I believe the Blues have a predicable letdown here. Winnipeg lost 5-4 to Edmonton in OT, but it’s since won back-to-back games over the Canucks and Coyotes and with the Leafs coming to town next, I think they’ll come in focused on the task at hand.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is just 2-9 in its last 11 as a road dog in the +150 to +175 range. Lay the price, play on the Jets.

The set-up: This is an important road game for the Flames and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done in the Big Apple on Sunday night. Calgary has tough upcoming games against Montreal, Pittsburgh Washington and Toronto, so taking advantage of this match-up is important. The Flames dropped a 5-3 decision at home to the Predators last time out, but note that they’re 7-2 in their last nine road games when the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135.

The pick: The Rangers on the other hand come in off two exhausting efforts, first winning 3-2 in a shootout at home to the Avs, before then falling 4-3 in OT at Washington most recently. I think New York comes in “gassed” here and I look for the hungry visitors to take advantage.

The set-up: This is a battle of “bottom feeders,” as each team comes in with identical 0-2 records. However, I think this one sets up well for Kevin Love and the home side to finally punch one into the win column (both SU and ATS of course!) The Cavs come in forces here, they have two whole nights off after this before another home game against the Nets. The young Hawks though are feeling the pressure after back-to-back road blowouts, most recently a 131-117 setback to the Grizzlies. But with three nights off before its first home game against Dallas, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine Atlanta getting caught “looking ahead” here as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Cavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as home favorite in the -3 to -9 points range. Lay the points, play on Cleveland.

The set-up: These division rivals are very evenly matched, but I think the Cowboys will stumble in this difficult road venue. Both teams enter with identical 3-3 records.

The teams: Dallas comes in off a 40-7 win over a road-weary Jacksonville team. I’m not going to read too much into the victory though and I do believe regression is imminent here as the team has shown a propensity to struggle away from friendly confines already this season. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and allowing 17.2.

Washington is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. Last week Alex Smith had 163 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran pivot will have some opportunities today in front of the home town crowd as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest. Divisional battles are always the most important and they always mean more to the home side. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Patriots look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their epic shootout victory at home over the Chiefs last Sunday night. The Bears recent momentum was stopped in a humbling loss to Miami last week and I believe they’ll bounce back and find a way to defend Soldier Field.

The teams: Tom Brady faced the league’s worst pass defense last week and he shredded it. It was a dream match-up and the legend delivered the goods. But we’ve already seen Brady struggle this year in difficult road venues against capable defenses.

And Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense at home is an entirely different “animal” than KC. Brady may have looked great last weekend, but what looked horrible for New England was its defense. The unit is lucky that Brady played as well as he did, otherwise the Chiefs would still be undefeated. Suffice it to say, I think that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky will have his opportunities today.

The pick: The Bears have yet to lose at home this year and I believe that trend continues. And take it for what you will as well, but note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Bears.

The set-up: The Vikes come in off a 27-12 home win over the Cardinals and I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. New York enters off a 42-34 home victory over Indianapolis, but it now faces one of its most challenging defenses of the season. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.

The teams: Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 233 passing yards with one TD and one INT last week. So far he has 1,921 passing yards with a sharp 12/3 TD:INT. RB LaTavius Murray had 155 rushing yards in the victory. The defense was tremendous, holding the Cards to just 269 total yards, including only 61 rushing yards.

Jets’ QB Sam Darnold has a 9/7 TD:INT after going for 280 yards and two TD’s last weekend. While the offense looked decent though, note that the defense allowed 428 total yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game, while the Vikes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on the road. The Vikes come in with momentum, taking out the Eagles on the road and then the Cards at home. Look for New York to take a predicable step back this week and lay the points.

The set-up: Tampa’s fallen on hard times since starting out 2-0, coming into this one having lost three straight. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three, but it got destroyed at home by the high-flying Chargers last weekend. I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “under” between these two hungry teams.

The teams: The Browns offense looked terrible last week against a pretty mediocre Chargers’ defense. Baker Mayfield was picked off twice and he only connected on 47.8 percent of his passes. So far he has a 4/5 TD:INT ratio. Mayfield doesn’t have many standout receivers, so look for Cleveland to try and establish the run here so as to alleviate some of the pressure of their rookie pivot.

The Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith following a 34-29 setback to the Falcons last Sunday. With the shift in management, I believe we’ll see a marked improvement on that side of the ball this weekend.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, I believe the “conditions” are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a wide open “shoot-out.” Play the “under.”

The set-up: I think a trip across the pond does the Titans good after their worst offensive performance in a decade. Conversely, I believe this trip will be detrimental to the Chargers’ recent chemistry. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but Marcus Mariota and the Titans definitely have something to prove this weekend after last Sunday’s performance.

The teams: Despite last week’s 21-0 loss to Baltimore (the Ravens own the leagues’ No. 1 defense), Tennessee is still tied atop the AFC South.

LA comes in complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently a 38-14 victory at Cleveland. Melvin Gordon was a standout with 132 yards rushing and three TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 4-0 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses, while LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories and only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite. Grab the points.