These have been two of the coldest teams in the entire of NBA of late. San Antonio has lost 13 in a row and just covered for the first time since January 20th (as a 16-point underdog in Cleveland). Charlotte just won for the first time in February. Prior to that, the Hornets had lost seven in a row.

I expect very little defense to be played Wednesday in this battle of also-rans. 

The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league.They are giving up an average of 125 points/game on the road while letting the opposition shoot 52 percent from the field. 

Charlotte has given up 117 or more points in six straight games. Their last game, which again was a win, ended up 144-138. They shot 63% overall from the field and made 54% from three.

Even if the Hornets can’t come close to matching those percentages tonight, they will put a bunch of points on the board. The Over is 5-0 this season when they face a team from the Southwest Division. 10*

This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Villanova team that is just 12-13 straight up on the season. But it is a revenge spot, at home, and the Wildcats are facing a Butler team in a prime letdown situation following an upset of Xavier over the weekend. 

Now healthier, ‘Nova has won two straight. They beat Seton Hall 58-54 over the weekend. That was after crushing DePaul last Wednesday. Justin Moore (missed 20 games) being back is huge for this team.

Butler is coming off two straight two-point victories, one over St. John’s and the other against Xavier. Both of those wins came at home. Previous to that, the Bulldogs had lost five in a row, four of those games being decided by more than 20 points.

As an underdog, Butler has not fared well this season. They are not only 2-12 straight up, but 3-11 against the spread. 

Butler shot 56.5% from the field in the first meeting vs. Villanova, which won’t happen again here. The team shoots just 40.6% for the season away from home. 10* 

Boston is going to be shorthanded for this one, which is why the line has moved so dramatically. I’m still going to lay the points though with red hot Milwaukee, who should roll in this one.

The Bucks have won 10 straight and are 23-5 straight up at home. Early on in the season, the problem was the team was not all that healthy. But now Khris Middleton is back and the Bucks’ offensive efficiency has gone way up.

The Celtics’ projected starting five for this matchup is: Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Grant Williams, Al Horford and Robert Williams. We know Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Danilo Galinari are all out. Additionally, Jayson Tatum is listed as doubtful. Basically, I expect the Celtics to wave the proverbial “white flag” tonight. Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogden are all listed as questionable, by the way.

The Bucks are just 1.5 games back of the Celtics. A win here pulls them even in the loss column. 

Boston has had Milwaukee’s number in the past, going 12-2 ATS L14 meetings including 6-0 here in Milwaukee. This is a chance for the Bucks to exact some revenge for a 21-point loss on Christmas. Fade a clearly shorthanded Celtics squad here. 10*

Kent State has won two in a row since losing to Akron, a result I was on the right side of as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. The Golden Flashes are tied with Toledo atop the conference standings at 10-2. 

Western Michigan, on the other hand, is having a pretty terrible year. The Broncos have lost eight in a row while failing to cover seven straight.

But I think that this is too many points for Kent State to be laying on the road. They’ve lost two of their last three road games and the one win, over Buffalo on Saturday, was by just seven points.

You have to figure we’re going to get WMU’s best effort Tuesday night with one of the high-profile teams in the conference coming to Kalamazoo. 

The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Take the points here. 10*

The Wizards have won 8 of their last 11 games and tonight visit the wounded Warriors. No Steph Curry has resulted in the home team losing its last two games. 

Thus, I could certainly understand the urge to take the points in this Monday night NBA matchup. But I think the Under is the better call.

This isn’t the same Warriors team without Curry. They were just 12 of 44 from deep in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers Saturday night. That was here at home.

Last month saw these teams combine for 245 points, but 41 of those came from Curry.

With the former MVP on the sidelines, the total for this game should be way lower. It was 235 with Curry in the lineup last month. His absence is certainly felt in the spread, but there’s definite value playing the Under. 10*

The Red Wings thrashed the Canucks in the opening game of a home and home series in Detroit.  They now meet 2 days later in Vancouver.  The Canucks are equally poor at home or away this season.  The Red Wings are just .500 on the road.  The Canucks defense is still very questionable; they've given up 20 goals in their 4 games since the break, which is even worse than their season's average of 4 per game.  While the Red Wings have struggled to score goals this season, They have a big edge on defense and in the net, especially when Husso is playing.  He has won 5 of his last 7 games with a save %of .923.

The Canucks still have some firepower, but losing Horvat has hurt.  Even if Detroit's offense is a little anemic,  Vancouver's defense and goalie can make any team's offense look like stars.  I am on the Underdog today.  Take Detroit to steal this one on the road.

Grambling is 9-2 SU its last 11 games, all but two of which have seen them go off as the favorite. Coming into Monday, the Tigers have won and covered three straight. They are favored again here, but it’s worth noting the previous two times they have been on a three-game win streak, the next game ended up being an outright loss. 

One of those losses was at rival Southern, which was also one of the rare instances of Grambling catching points. The other loss came as a five-point home favorite to Alcorn State. Tonight, the Tigers face a Prairie View A&M team that already beat them, 61-60 back on January 2nd.

Prairie View A&M was a 1.5-point favorite in that first matchup, so I’m seeing a little bit of value on them right away for tonight’s rematch. The Panthers have dropped five of seven overall, including a 79-65 loss at Southern over the weekend. But I’m not convinced this spread should be so large. 

Granted a lot has changed since these teams met in the conference opener. But Grambling has another revenge game on deck (Southern) and may be “looking ahead” to that game on Saturday. 

We’ve already seen this number get bet down at most shops and I expect that will continue throughout the day. 10* 

Coming into the season, the Jazz and Pacers were both expected to be among the worst teams in the NBA. They were each projected for just 23.5 wins. As you can see, both have wildly overachieved, already eclipsing their paltry projections.

But there can be no denying that both teams have slowed down of late, especially Indiana, who comes into Monday having lost 15 of its last 17 games. Utah has lost four of five.

The key for this game though is that Indiana is at home. They are 17-13 straight up and 18-11-1 ATS at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. 

Utah is only 10-18 straight up on the road. They have a winning ATS record, but that’s because they are usually a dog, which is obviously not the case here.

Even if the Pacers are bet to a favorite tonight, I’m sticking with them. (The Jazz are 2-5 SU/ATS as away favorites). The Jazz shook up the roster at the deadline and were down double digits to the Knicks Saturday before a late rally ultimately fell short. 10*

Here it comes!  The Eagles and the Chiefs meet up for all the marbles.  Mahomes continued his path to possible "GOAT" status with an inspired Conference Final game while obviously playing hurt. So why not another win on Super Sunday?
Injuries:  Mahomes may be healthier but what about KC's WRs?  The Chiefs have a lot more question marks around who will play on both sides of the ball.  The Eagles are basically healthy.
Passing defense:  #1 vs #19.  The Eagles are a legit number one pass defense; tops in all aspects.  the Chiefs barely beat the Bengals with a just average pass defense.  It will be much much tougher for the Chiefs to move the ball in the air this coming Sunday.  The Eagles are formidable in passer pressure, and Mahomes is still likely not 100% mobile.
Run game:  The Eagles have a good one, and the added advantage of a fine rushing passer.  Considering the low % of rush plays the Chiefs face on average (26% last game), the Chiefs can be run on when it suits the opposition.  Enter Hurts and the Eagles run-first offense, plus a defense that will limit the Chiefs' pass opportunities.
Let's do the Math. The Combination of a better Eagles defense (pass and run) added to a more flexible Philly offense equals an Eagles win.  Take Philadelphia to win and cover.   
 

If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes.  The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me  this week.  I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under.

The Raptors are curiously 0-7 ATS the last seven meetings with the Pistons and have lost six of the seven games straight up. I look for that to change on Sunday.

The one straight up win came in Detroit, earlier this season, as the Raptors prevailed 115-111. 

On Friday, the Pistons needed double overtime to defeat the sorry Spurs 138-131. But that was just their third win in the last month. I have Detroit rated as the third worst team in the NBA, ahead of only the Rockets and Spurs.

Toronto also beat the Spurs this week, albeit much easier, 112-98. They followed that with a loss to Utah in a game that was decided in the fourth quarter.

Even though they are 26-31, the Raptors have a positive point differential for the season. They are better than their record and should be able to blow out the Pistons here. 10*

Over the last month, Robert Morris has lost three in a row, won three in a row and now lost three in a row again. The Colonials are coming off a tough 57-55 loss at Cleveland State Friday, a game that was decided in the closing seconds. RMU was 4 of 21 from three in the two-point loss. 

Fort Wayne also comes into Sunday on a bit of a losing streak. They’ve dropped two straight and four of six. This is a revenge spot for the Mastodons, who lost 75-70 at Robert Morris earlier in the season.

Fort Wayne was a three-point favorite when they made that visit to RMU. I know they lost, but it’s curious we are able to get them so cheap for this rematch.

Robert Morris only averages 64.0 points/game away from home where it is 4-11 straight up. Fort Wayne puts up 81.1 points/game at home.

I like the home team to exact some revenge here. I know it’s been a disappointing season, but Fort Wayne was thought to be one of the top Horizon League teams coming into the season and I think we’re getting a discount here. 10* 

The Habs are home to the Oilers in an early Sunday game.  Both teams played and won on Saturday, the Canadiens in OT and the Oilers easily.  That was Montreal's first win in 5 games.  The Habs are 3 games under .500 at home. The Oilers, on the other hand, are 8-2 L10, and are a better team on the road this season.  Tops in offense and Power Play this season, the Oilers are a threat for a high total in every game.  Facing the Canadiens' 28th ranked goals-against and 30th PK, a bevy of Oilers' goals is even more likely.

Skinner likely starts for the Oilers.  He has impressed this year, but his recent results have been mixed.  The Oilers are not always the most dependable team on defense.  Allen will start in net for the Canadiens and has been outright leaky of late.

Edmonton is 4-1 against Montreal in recent meetings and all of those games have gone over the total I don't believe that Sunday's game will be any different.  Wager on the Canadiens and Oilers to go Over.

#4 Arizona has won seven in a row while going 6-0-1 ATS, but the trip to Palo Alto tonight could be a tricky one. 

It’s been four straight blowouts for the Wildcats. As you know, it’s very difficult in grind of conference play to consistently win by double digit margins. 

Stanford had won five in a row before losing the last two. It was a close call here at home vs. Arizona State Thursday where the Cardinal lost by four, 69-65 as a 2.5 point favorite.

That was a brutal result for Stanford considering they led by eight with five minutes to go. 

Other than a trip to Colorado on Sunday, the Cardinal haven’t played a bad game in a month. This is a possible upset. 10*

I like the Over here. Last night’s Miami result is giving us some good value.

The Heat won Friday, but it was not pretty as they beat the Rockets 97-95 as 12-point favorites. That obviously went way Under. (Total closed 220.5). 

There should be more offensive success in this game against an Orlando team that gives up nearly 115 points/game. 

The Magic have played two straight low scoring games and have had three in a row go Under overall. But they are 6-1 Over on Saturdays this season.

The Magic’s last game, a 115-104 win over Denver, was 65-55 at halftime. 10*

Columbus and the Leafs played each other on Friday, with the Leafs winning handily.  On Saturday they face each other again, this time in Toronto.  Columbus has won only four games on the road this season, while the Leafs are a dominant 20-5 at home.  The Jackets are horrible in back to back situations and will likely play Merzlikins in net, who has won just four games this season and is giving up more than four goals a game.  The Leafs are 4-1 when playing recently in back to backs.  Their starter in net is unclear at this point.

Columbus has joined the 30-30 club this season, not admirable in this case.  They are 30th in offense and 30th ranked in defense with their power play only marginally better.  The Leafs have a top nine offense and are a stingy 6th ranked on defense, with a very good power play.  Now 2-8, and still with a very heavy injury list, the only competition the Jackets are in is the Bedard Cup.  Here is one puck line prospect I feel safe in backing.  Take the Maple Leafs at -1 1/2.

Texas State got the win on Thursday, but could not cover as seven-point favorites against Arkansas State. The final score was 66-62. Over their last eight games, the Bobcats are just 2-6 straight up and against the spread.

But I will play them laying a much shorter number Saturday against Old Dominion.

ODU is 4-1 SU/ATS its last five games, but every result has been decided by six points or less. Three wins have been by three points or less, so the Monarchs are probably due for some regression in close games. 

The reason Texas State didn’t cover is because Arkansas State was an abnormally good 9 of 18 from three-point range. ODU will not do the same. Plus, the Bobcats are due to start shooting better themselves from three.

Old Dominion is not only playing its second straight game on the road, but this is the fourth time in the last six games they’re on the road. Their opponent went just 2 of 13 from three in the last game. 10*

Providence has a remarkable record in close games the last two seasons, but I’m going to look to fade the Friars as road favorites here as they pay a visit to a desperate St. John’s team. 

The Johnnies started the year a perfect 8-0, but that was certainly the byproduct of a soft November schedule. Since that 8-0 start, the team is just 6-11. It’s an 0-3 start to February and they’ve failed to cover each of the last six games.

The Red Storm lost by two earlier this week at Butler (were 1.5 underdogs), dropping to 9-16 ATS overall this season. It was another close loss in the first meeting with Providence, which ended up being an 83-80 final. The Johnnies covered that one as seven-point dogs.

Providence may very well be looking past this game as they’ll be hosting Creighton on Tuesday. The Friars didn’t cover vs. Georgetown Wednesday and while they haven’t suffered back to back ATS losses since November, I see that happening here. 

In all due respect, I do not think Providence is a Top 25 team in the country. 10*

Here we’ve got Wright State, who has covered five in a row, as a short home favorite against Northern Kentucky in a Friday night Horizon League matchup. 

The Raiders just dropped 103 in their last game. Now that was against the hideous IUPUI (one of the worst teams in the country), but it’s not like they aren’t normally a high scoring team. Coming into this game, Wright State is Top 20 in the country, averaging 81.3 points/game.

At home, their scoring average rises to 85.8 points/game.

Northern Kentucky has yet to show me they can “keep up” with a team that scores that many. The Norse are averaging just 61.0 points/game away from home. They finished with only 56 in a loss at Youngstown State in the last game.

NKU did win the first meeting, back on December 29th, holding Wright State to just 64 points. But Wright State isn’t going to go 5 of 16 from three again nor will NKU go 11 of 23 again. Northern Kentucky has been an underdog five times this season. They’ve won and covered only once. Lay that short number. 10*

analysis coming

This is an UGLY matchup with the worst team in the NBA (Spurs) taking on a Pistons team that is in the bottom four. While we’ve seen both teams struggle to score recently, it’s not like either is known for playing much defense. So let’s go Over the total here.

Detroit is 29th (next to last) in the league in defensive efficiency. Would you like to guess who is last? That would be San Antonio. 

Neither of these teams play slow. In fact, both rank in the top 10 in pace. Combine that with the two worst defensive teams in terms of points allowed per possession and we’ve got ourselves a recipe for an Over. 

Oddsmakers are unfazed by the fact neither team scored 100 points in their last game. The Pistons had a horrific shooting night in Cleveland, including 8 of 32 from three. Three-point variance is something we can count on here, especially considering SA is allowing teams to hit over 40% from behind the arc.

The Pistons are also “due” for an Over after six straight Unders. The Spurs have allowed 127 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games. They allowed “only” 112 at Toronto Wednesday. That’s notable because you’d have to go back to Jan 6th to find the last time the Spurs went back to back games without allowing 120 or more points. 10* 

A healthy and better rested Rangers team hosts the 4-6 Kraken at home tonight.  the 7-3 Ranges have scored 9 goals in two straight wins since the break, allowing 7.  The Kraken, usually offense-driven, have scored just a single goal in two straight losses.  They are playing their third game in four days on the road.  It should be Grubauer vs Shesterkin in net tonight.  The Seattle goalie has been steadier than usual lately.  The Rangers' Shesterkin is a very solid bet to bounce back from a rare sub-.900 effort last time out.
The Rangers' big news is the addition of premier goal-scorer Tarasenko; a huge plus to the Rangers' 13th ranked offense. NY, usually a very good defensive team, will look to revenge a loss against the Kraken.  Seattle's recent power outage is concerning.  They are not completely dependable on defense.  Take the Rangers to win at  home.

The Rangers are usually a defense-driven team and the Kraken have been underachieving on offense with just a single goal scored in the two games since the break.  Sounds like an under?  But, wait! The addition of Tarasenko to the Rangers' offense is a very fine and inspiring plus.  The Kraken usually have a potent offense; it is defense and goal-tending that can be an issue. NY has been surprisingly free-wheeling since the break, scoring nine goals while allowing seven.  The Kraken are due to score more than a goal tonight.  Seattle will also play their third game in four nights.  Usually it is the defense that struggles in such a situation.  Take the over in this match-up.

Gonzaga should be very motivated here as they are coming off an overtime loss to St. Mary’s last Saturday, 78-70 as three-point dogs. That was a game the Zags led for almost all of regulation. They were up eight at halftime and maintained that edge going into the final eight minutes. 

Gonzaga doesn’t lose games back to back, but of course the oddsmakers know that and have them as double digit favorites tonight vs. San Francisco. This may seem like a steep number to lay Thursday, considering the “letdown factor” and that the Zags only won by two at San Francisco last month. 

But I’m not afraid. If Gonzaga had lost to St. Mary’s on a, say Thursday, and was laying this many points two days later, then I’d be a bit more hesitant. But they’ve had plenty of time to “get over” that loss to SMU and regain their composure for what should be a full scale effort.

San Francisco has had a pretty frustrating season and comes in as losers of two straight. They lost by nine at St. Mary’s, then by 13 at home to Santa Clara (were three-point favorites). The Dons just cannot match Gonzaga’s explosive offense, which puts up 92.8 points/game at home. 

In their last home game, Gonzaga was laying a similar number to the Santa Clara team that just beat USF. The Zags won by 18. 8*

The Nuggets just put up 146 in their last game, a blowout win over Minnesota. Over their last six games, there’s been only one time where Denver and the opposition failed to combine for 235 or more points. That was a 128-98 loss at Minnesota where Jokic didn’t play. 

Orlando’s last game was low scoring as they lost 102-98 to the Knicks. But the Magic are 16-5 to the Over this season when facing a team from the Western Conference. 

Three of the last four games have seen the Magic shoot worse than their season average from three. Denver lets teams hit 38.1% from behind the arc on the road. So Orlando should find success from downtown in this matchup.

In fact, the Nuggets allow teams to shoot better than 50% overall when they are the road team.

The Over is 8-3 L11 Magic home games as well as 5-0-1 in Denver’s last six overall. 10*

The 8-1 Oilers are on a  roll, scoring in bunches lately, and are now just 2 points out of  first place in their division.  They are a very good road team this year, and are getting much needed secondary scoring.  Meanwhile, the Flyers are struggling at 4-4, and are 0-4 in recent home games.  Tonight's action pits  the league's best offense and PP against the Flyers' who are among the bottom feeders in both categories.  Flyers' net minder Hart has been solid enough but just doesn't get the offensive support for many wins.  He'll face the Oilers' Jack Campbell, who has been much improved of late.

Edmonton is very tough to beat when Draisaitl and McDavid don't have to go it alone. Edmonton's defense, which can sometimes seem like an afterthought, has kept opposing teams to under three goals lately.  I am taking the Oilers to win this one, possibly easily.

Georgia State has not had much success this season as they are 2-8 L10 games. But it’s the road that has given the Panthers trouble. All 10 of their wins in 2022-23 have come here at home and that’s where they are Thursday facing Old Dominion. 

ODU has won four of six and just beat Georgia Southern 64-58 as a five-point favorite on Saturday. But be careful about reading “too much” into that 4-2 run. Two of the Monarchs’ wins were by a combined three points, both of those on the road.

This Old Dominion team does not shoot the ball well. They’ve been held under 34% overall in three of the last five games and have been below 32% from three in six of their last eight.

At home, Georgia State is allowing only 63.4 points/game. 

The first meeting, which was just under a month ago, saw ODU shoot the lights out from two-point range (24 of 34!) and Georgia State shot poorly overall. We won’t see that kind of dramatic split in the rematch now that ODU is the road team. 10*

Golden State just put up 141 in a win over Oklahoma City Monday night, but remember there’s no Steph Curry (out through the All-Star Break) and I just don’t see a repeat of that offensive effort from the Warriors tonight.

Against the Thunder, Golden State shot 57.7% overall and 52% from three. Klay Thompson made 12 threes himself. I’m on the record as saying none of that will be repeated here.

How much of a scoring decrease we see here from the Warriors remains to be seen. But considering this team is just 7-20 on the road, averaging 116.6 points/game, it should be rather substantial.

Portland saw a streak of four straight games with 120 or more points broken on Monday. They finished with just 108 in a blowout loss at the hands of Milwaukee. 

None of the previous five meetings between these teams would have gone Over this total. The Blazers are 29-11 Under following a game where they allowed 125 or more points. 10*

The 3-10 Canucks have traded away their captain, fired their coach, and are missing their top net-minder.  It has been a turbulent and disappointing season for the Canucks, but they were surprisingly competitive against the Devils in their first game back from the break.  I doubt they will sustain that momentum tonight.

The Rangers barely survived a road game vs the Flames, but are back home tonight.  Shesterkin should be back in net. Behind a third-ranked defense, he has limited opposing teams to under 2.5 goals a game this year. Spencer Martin is expected in net for Vancouver.  Martin has played poorly with an increased role this season, with little support from the Canucks' 31st ranked defense and the worst PK in the league.  Martin gave up 6 goals in his last appearance.

The Canucks have lost some heart and fire-power in trading away Horvat and are a poor team on the road this season. Tonight's game is a fine opportunity for the 6-4 Rangers, who haven't faced a bottom dweller in some time.  NY needs to make a statement down the stretch, and this is the place to start.  Take the Rangers to win on the Puck line at -1 1/2.

Cleveland has been very good at home so far, going 22-6 straight up and 19-9 against the spread. But you’d have to go back to the LeBron days to find the last time they were favored by this many points.

It’s a good time to go against the Cavs, in my opinion. They’ve covered three in a row and are 2-0 vs. the Pistons this season. That all has conspired to inflate this number. 

Over the 82-game grind that is the NBA regular season, you’re going to have some “off nights.” Cleveland has been pretty dialed in each of its last two games, but I don’t see that same kind of effort forthcoming here in what will be the team’s third game in four days.

Detroit, who is expected to be a seller at the trade deadline, could use a good effort. They’ve dropped four of five and 8 of their last 10. I think they come out strong here against a division rival. 

Note that Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS following a double digit win. Grab the points. 10*

Michigan thwarted rival Ohio State on Sunday, winning 77-69 as a 2.5 point favorite. That was the Wolverines’ second straight win after they also beat Northwestern 68-51 as a 3.5 point road dog last Thursday.

While I did fade Michigan on Sunday, and that ultimately proved to be unwise, I’ve learned from the “mistake.” There’s no denying the Wolverines look to be in a very favorable situation tonight, hosting a Nebraska team I rate as significantly worse than Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers are probably the second worst team in the Big 10. Now they too won Sunday, 72-63 vs. Penn State as five point home underdogs, but prior to that had lost four straight and six of seven. Both wins over the last month came in Lincoln.

On the road, Nebraska has been a bit of a disaster, going 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, Michigan’s only home loss in conference play came to top ranked Purdue. 

I’m fine laying double digits here as Nebraska has covered just 2 of its last 10 games overall and hasn’t beaten Michigan since 2018. Six of the seven straight Michigan wins over Nebraska have come by double digits. 10* 

We’ve got some late night action in the Mountain West with New Mexico hosting Nevada. This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, but I think oddsmakers set the total too high.

Now the last time these teams met, it was a 97-94 final. That game went to double overtime. It was tied 78-78 at the end of regulation. We need a lower-scoring 40 minutes tonight, obviously, and I think we’ll get it.

New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country. But they’ve lost four of nine since that 14-0 start and have scored below their season average in all nine of those contests.

Nevada has seen four of its last five games ended with 141 or less total points scored. 

I know it’s scary to go with the Under when both teams have been regularly going Over of late. But this O/U line looks to be inflated. New Mexico holds teams to 30.3% from three-point range and Nevada only averages 68.2 points/game on the road. 10*

The Predators ran up three straight victories, winning 5 of 6 leading up to the All-star break.  While just .500 for the season, they have been much better in the second half.  Vegas is a good road team but has struggled in the second half, and are still a victim of the injury bug.  They continue to get solid goal-tending from Thompson, but are up against a rare game-altering net-minder in Saros, whose 92% save % has kept Nashville in many games.
With Mark Stone out and Eichel under-performing, the Knights' offense hasn't been strong lately, scoring just 5 goals in their four straight losses before the break.  Meanwhile the Preds are overachieving on offense, managing 13 goals against tough opposition in their three victories leading up to the Break.
I favor Saros and the Preds today, as were the odds-makers. I am not convinced that the Golden Knights will bounce back from their recent funk. Take Nashville, in a game that is now a pick-em, to win at home.

There is currently a four-way tie for first place in the Missouri Valley. Drake is one of those four teams tied for the top spot following back to back double overtime wins.

The Bulldogs have won five straight and eight of nine overall. They did not cover in the three-point win at Valpo on Saturday as they were 8.5 point favorites. But the spread is smaller for tonight’s visit to Murray State and I think they cover this number.

Murray State is two games back of the top four and coming off a horrible loss, 99-56 at Indiana State. Things didn’t go much better when they faced Drake the first time as that was an 18-point loss for the Racers.

While they did recently beat Belmont (by 1) here at home, Murray State is just 4-5 SU over its last nine games and two of those four wins came by three points or less. 

It’s always tempting to take the points at home, but in this case Drake has already demonstrated it is the better team. Yes, coming off two straight 2OT games is tough as well. But the Bulldogs are being undervalued because of that. Lay it. 8*

Orlando returns home, looking to make it three straight wins as a short dog. They’ve recently beaten Minnesota 127-120 (were +4) and Charlotte 119-113 (were +2), both on the road.

But I’m looking to fade the Magic here as the oddsmakers have started to give them too much respect. They are still just 12-19 SU vs. teams that are .500 or better.

The Knicks are 29-26 SU following a thrilling comeback win over the Sixers on Sunday. I had NY plus the points in that one. Now they go from home dogs to road favorites. This season, NY is 6-2 ATS laying points away from home.

Earlier in the season, the Knicks beat the Magic 115-102 as a 7.5-point home favorite. Yes, the Magic are better now. But minus Mo Bamba (suspended), I don’t see them winning here. Lay it. 10*

In what is clearly the premier matchup on Monday’s College Basketball card, I’ll ride with Kansas to beat Texas in a clash of Top 10 teams from the Big 12.

Kansas has lost four of six, so this result probably means more to them. Following wins over Kentucky and Kansas State, it looked like the Jayhawks had started to turn things around. But they lost at Iowa State over the weekend, 68-53.

After things got rather tumultuous, following the dismissal of Chris Beard, Texas has posted wins in seven of its last nine games. The Longhorns are coming off a couple close ones, however. They beat Baylor 76-71 last Monday and then came from behind to defeat Kansas State 69-66 on Saturday.

Against Kansas State, UT was down 11 at the half and didn’t take the lead until the final minute. So that’s a game they probably should have lost. Now turning around 48 hours later to play in Allen Fieldhouse is a tough situation, even for a team as talented as the ‘Horns. 

Kansas is 11-1 at home and this is a short number. This is the first time under Bill Self that the Jayhawks have lost four of five in conference play. It’s a good time to buy low. 8*

Sacramento suffered an embarrassing defeat on Sunday, going down 136-104 at the hands of New Orleans. That was a Pelicans team playing without Brandon Ingram, and in the second night of a back to back.

So it’s tempting to play the Kings here as they face the lowly Rockets. But there’s no indication (yet) that De’Aaron Fox will return. Nevertheless, I do expect there to be no shortage of scoring in this game.

Jalen Green is back for Houston and their defense only gets worse with him on the floor. In Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma City, the Rockets gave up 153 points and 1.577 points per possession in non-garbage time. That’s atrocious.

Considering the Kings just allowed 136 to an undermanned Pelicans squad, defense seems like will be “optional” in this Monday night NBA tilt.

In fact, the last time these teams met, they combined for 253 points. That was on January 13th, so not long ago. Two days before that, they combined for 250. This is an easy call on the Over. 10*

After winning (and covering) six in a row, the Wizards have lost two straight. In both losses, they blew leads of 20+ points. So there’s an argument to be made that this team should be on an eight-game SU win streak entering Monday.

Against Portland on Friday, the Wizards saw their big lead quickly go away in the third quarter. Then on Saturday in Brooklyn, who didn’t have Durant, Irving, or Simmons, it was more of the same.

Here they are catching a small number at home and facing a Cleveland team that just played Sunday. The Cavs were successful yesterday, downing Indiana 122-103. But even with that result, they are just 11-16 SU on the road this season.

There is always a chance that Donovan Mitchell could sit tonight. 

Washington is poor as a home favorite (3-9 ATS) but 22-17-1 ATS otherwise. I like them as a dog tonight. 8*

We're back in business on the ice after the all-star break. My best NHL bet for Monday is the 8-2 Lightning  roughing up the home side Panthers.  The Lightning aren't as good on the road as at home, but they have had good success when visiting the Panthers.  The Panthers are just 5-5 in recent games and are missing both of their top goalies.  Journeyman goalie Lyon will likely be in net again.  He has started 6 straight games, and has been better expected, but he'll face Tampa's potent top 4 offense and top 3 PK.  The Panthers can put the puck in the net but their defense and PK has been suspect irregardless of whoever has tended the net this season. Lyon will face a ton of shots again.  Vasilevsky will start for the Lightning.  He has been super-sharp in his last couple of games, and is a winning machine again this season.

The favorite usually wins when these two State rivals face off.  The Lightning are definitely the better team this season, and their goalie superiority is the clincher.  Take the Lightning to strike again on the road.

Note the slightly earlier tip time for this one (6 PM ET). 

Hartford finally won a game back on 1/25 when it upset Stonehill 73-56 as an eight-point underdog. But the Hawks had no real chance to build any sort of momentum, as they were off until Saturday - when they lost 62-49 to Chicago State, the only other D-I independent. 

For Hartford, this long “homestand” continues Monday when they welcome in UMass-Lowell. I think it’s a good spot to take the Hawks as a big dog. All five of their wins this season have come at home.

Since Hartford is an independent, most opponents will not get “up” for them. In the case of UMass-Lowell, I believe it’s an especially good time to fade though. The River Hawks twice won by double digits last week and are probably peaking towards this weekend’s game at Vermont, which could decide first place in the America East.

In road games where the total is 135 to 139.5, UMass Lowell is just 1-6 ATS this season. Take the points. 10*

Stanford comes into Boulder on a five-game win streak, but one of those wins was out of conference (Chicago State) and they also beat the bottom two teams in the Pac 12 (Cal and Oregon State). So I’m not all that impressed with what I’ve seen from the Cardinal recently.

Colorado is a team that has been struggling; they’ve won just two of their last seven games while going 1-6 ATS. But almost all of their losses have been close and to top teams in the conference.

I like the Buffaloes here as they’ve already gone on the road and beat Stanford 73-70 as a 2-point underdog. They did so despite making nine fewer free throws.

This will also be Stanford’s second road game of the week. Credit them for pulling an upset in Utah Thursday, 78-72 as a six-point underdog, but that was also their first true road win of the season. (They’ve only played five!)

Colorado hasn’t been very good as a favorite, but they are 10-2 SU at home and this is a pretty short number. 8*

Philadelphia has won 9 of 10 and just beat San Antonio 137-125 as a 10-point favorite on Friday. New York has won just 3 of 10 after losing in overtime last night, 134-128 to the Clippers, as a 2.5-point home underdog.

Despite those recent streaks, and this being the second night of a back to back, I’m siding with the Knicks on Sunday. 

I believe NY can exploit a Philly defense that has actually gotten worse while the team has been winning. 

In five of the last six games, the Sixers have allowed 119 or more points. The one exception was Wednesday’s home win over Orlando, who missed 32 of their 38 attempts from three. 

The Knicks’ 12-13 SU home record seems a bit misleading as they’ve scored more points than they’ve allowed. I know they were down 17 in the 4Q last night, before making a furious rally to force OT. But we’re also getting points here, which I like, as NY is 6-1 ATS its last seven games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* 

Ohio State has lost eight of nine, including a 65-60 loss to Wisconsin on Thursday where they were 7.5-point home favorites. However, I think we’ve hit the “bottom of the market” on the Buckeyes and this is the right time to “buy low.”

Michigan just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 68-51 upset at Northwestern where the Wolverines were 3.5 point underdogs. But overall, the Maize and Blue have dropped five of eight, so it’s not like they are in significantly better form than their rivals heading into Sunday.

KenPom has Ohio State rated as the unluckiest team in the country. That’s supported by the fact that five of their last eight losses have come by five points or fewer. 

The Buckeyes also boast a top 15 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. Michigan’s defense struggles to stop penetration, so look for the underdog to get plenty of points going to the rim in this Sunday matchup. 

I would not be the least bit surprised to see OSU win this game outright, then go on a nice late season run. I have them rated as a better team than Michigan so take those points. 10* 

Eastern Washington remains one of five teams in the country yet to lose a conference game. For the record, the others are: Alabama, Colgate, Oral Roberts and St. Mary’s. I will be fading Eastern Washington tonight as they visit Portland State.

These teams already met once and it was (obviously) Eastern Washington that won, 92-80. The Eagles shot 58% from the floor in that game and went 16 of 31 from three. They will not be doing that again here on the road.

Portland State got a much needed home victory on Thursday, beating Idaho 69-66. That ended a two-game losing streak. The Vikings had also previously dropped three in a row at home. While 1-6 ATS L7 games overall, I think there’s some real value in this team Saturday.

It’s a great spot with tonight being PSU’s fourth straight game at home. Eastern Washington is playing its second road game in three days. The only other time they had to do this and were favored, they did not cover at Northern Arizona. 

While 9-0 SU at home, EWU is just 8-7 SU in road/neutral site games. Portland State is the ONLY team in the country yet to cover a single spread at home. That changes tonight in a major way. Take the points. 10*

Milwaukee scored only 106 in its last game, which is far from the norm for them. We're talking about a team that had previously scored 124 or more in six of eight games. The Bucks' offensive efficiency, over the last two weeks, is where you'd expect it to be.

The Over is 14-8 this season in Bucks' games where the total is 220 or higher. I anticipate them scoring a ton tonight.

Now Miami only scored 104 points in its last game. They've topped 110 just once in the last seven games, however, I think we can expect more than normal tonight given the Bucks' involvement.

Two head to head meetings in January failed to produce more than 210 points. Neither Giannis Antekounmpo nor Khris Middleton played in those games though. Take the Over. 10*

Portland has won three straight and covered six of seven, but they had to come back from 20 down last night in Washington, so they are probably ripe to be blown out tonight in Chicago. 

The Bulls won by 16 against Charlotte on Thursday and didn’t even get good games from either DeRozan or LaVine. Those two combined for just 25 points.

But the Bulls have won five of eight overall. In one of the three losses, they blew a big lead.

I just think all signs point to a comfortable win for the home team.

For the past two seasons, UNC Wilmington has been one of the luckiest teams in the country. Their straight up record is to be respected, but there have been a lot of close wins. For that reason, I’ll fade the Spartans laying points on the road.

William & Mary has never been to the NCAA Tournament and they won’t get this year barring a run in the CAA Tournament. But the Tribe did beat UNCW 69-67 as a 12-point road underdog on January 14th. 

That was the rare close loss for UNCW. Unfortunately for W&M, they haven’t covered a single spread since (0-6 ATS). But that ATS skid has this number inflated. I know the favorite is out for revenge, but the home team is desperate for a win as well.

Note W&M was just 2 for 14 from three when they beat UNCW last month. I certainly expect they’ll shoot better from three this afternoon. 

UNCW has a big showdown against Charleston looming and they could be looking ahead to that Wednesday contest. Take the points. 10* 

This sets up as perhaps the biggest game of the season in the Mid American Conference as you’ve got first place Kent State traveling to face an Akron team that is a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season.

The host Zips have won seven in a row overall, most recently destroying Buffalo on the road, 81-64 as short two-point favorites.

Kent State has lost just four games all season. Three of those losses were to Gonzaga, Houston and Charlotte, three teams that have a combined SU record of 61-9. The Golden Flashes only conference loss came last week at Northern Illinois, 86-76, and that was a real shocker considering they were 13-point favorites. 

Now the Golden Flashes are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog of three points or less. But I feel that Akron’s home court advantage will be too difficult to overcome.

The Zips are 31-4 SU L35 games here and we only have to lay a small number. They average 80.4 points/game at the J.A.R. This is a great team at defending the rim and Kent State is outside the Top 200 in 3-point shooting. Leading scorer Castaneda did not play against Ball State on January 6th, which is Akron’s only conference loss. He’s gone for 32 points in three of the last four games. 10* 

I cashed with the Pacers last night, but want NO part of them here in the second night of a back to back against Sacramento.

Indiana led most of the way Thursday against the Lakers, but succumbed to a 28-15 fourth quarter rally by LeBron and company and thus ended up losing by a final score of 112-111. At least they covered the spread (+2.5). 

That was the Pacers fourth straight loss and 11th loss in the last 12 games. In the only win during that 12-game stretch (1/24 vs. Chicago), they trailed by 21 in the first half.

Sacramento is keen on ending what is the longest playoff drought for any team in the four “major” North American sports. The Kings are well on their way to making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. They are currently third in the Western Conference with a 29-21 overall record and have won 9 of their last 12 games.

Earlier this season, when the Pacers were playing better, they lost by 23 points to the Kings. These are now two teams trending in opposite directions. 10*

The Bulls and Hornets have already played twice this season. Both games went Under the total. I expect this one to be higher scoring though (as, obviously, so do the oddsmakers).

While five of the last six Bulls games have gone Under the total and four of the last five Hornets games have stayed Under as well, we are looking at a pair of teams more than capable of scoring - or allowing - a lot of points on any given night.

Charlotte takes a lot of threes and has scored 122 and 115 points its last two games. I’m confident they can score in that range again tonight.

The issue for the Hornets is they allow 120.5 points/game on the road. They just gave up 124 at Milwaukee.

Chicago was just 4 of 25 from three the last time they played Charlotte. But that was on the road and I expect much better shooting tonight. Take the Over.

Western Kentucky hosts UTSA in Conference USA action Thursday night. Whereas these schools played for the conference championship in football, the basketball programs are not pulling their weight.

WKU has dropped five in a row. They did cover Saturday’s game at FAU as 12.5 point underdogs. It was the second loss to FAU (C-USA’s #1 team) over those L5 games. The Hilltoppers have been one of the big disappointments in the league so far, but oddsmakers still expect them to win big tonight and so do I. 

UTSA has lost eight straight overall and is 0-8 on the road. They have been outscored by 17.2 points/game away from home this season. In conference play, they are being outscored by 12.4 points/game.

The Roadrunners only conference win came all the way back on Jan 5 as a 10 point home underdog vs. Middle Tennessee.  Since then, five of the eight losses have been by double digits. This includes a 10 point loss at home to Western Kentucky.

Again, I expect WKU to roll here. The key here is the Hilltoppers are averaging 77.3 points/game at home. UTSA is giving up 80.6 on the road. I just don’t see a Roadrunners team averaging 63.4 points/game on the road scoring enough here to cover when the opposition is likely to put up somewhere around 80 points. 10*

Indiana had been a real pleasant surprise this NBA season, but has now dropped 10 of its last 11 games. Just to illustrate how low expectations were here, the team has already exceeded its preseason win projection.

Expectations are always high for the Lakers, but they always seem to fall short. Right now, LeBron and company find themselves third from the bottom in the Western Conference standings.

LA did just go on the road and beat NY in what was the second night of a back to back for them. But now we’re talking about a fourth road game in six days. I just don’t have faith in this Lakers team.

They give up 121 points/game on the road and even with James & Davis on the floor, the net efficiency rating isn’t as high as you’d think. 

The Pacers are 16-9-1 ATS at home this year. I like them getting points. If Tyrese Haliburton could return (questionable), that would be an added bonus. 10*

Northern Kentucky hits the road to face Robert Morris in Horizon League play Thursday night. The hosts have won and covered three straight. The visitors just had a four-game win streak snapped over the weekend. 

It was a one-point loss for NKU at Milwaukee on Saturday, 75-74 as 6.5 point favorites. Just a brutal result for the Norse, who were up 20 - at home - at the half. Milwaukee used a stunning 24-4 second half run to turn the game on its head. 

As a result, Northern Kentucky should be VERY motivated here. They know it should be a five-game win streak coming into tonight’s tilt.

Prior to their current three-game run, Robert Morris had lost five of six. So I’m not buying the Colonials. 

Especially since NKU already beat RMU this year, back in December, 60-56 as seven point favorites. While the Norse didn’t cover the spread at home, tonight all we need is a straight up victory. 10*

The expectation for this game is that New Mexico and Utah State are going to put up a lot of points. I understand that. New Mexico is averaging 82.4 points/game this season while Utah State puts up 79.9. 

But I like the Under here. The number is just too high. 

Looking through the results, New Mexico has had just one game all season close with a total higher than 156 points. That was January 9th vs. Oral Roberts and it stayed Under.

Similarly, Oral Roberts is the only Utah State opponent this season where the total was this high. 

Utah State is #1 in the country in three-point percentage, but can they really continue hitting above 40%? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, with New Mexico, only nine teams in the country take a fewer percentage of total field goal attempts from beyond the arc. 10*

St. John’s is off a close call where they only beat Georgetown by two points. Had they lost there, it would have been really embarrassing. As it stands, the Johnnies have dropped 7 of 10 overall.

But I like them here, at home vs. a Seton Hall team that is off one of its best performances in quite some time. The Pirates just went on the road and beat Butler 70-49. I’m choosing to view that as an “outlier” performance. 

Seton Hall had a week off before facing Butler. They’d previously lost at home to Marquette by 21 points. Before that, they’d won two games by a total of five points.

Now Seton Hall did take the first meeting with St. John’s by 22 points and is 6-2 SU their last eight games overall. But the Johnnies should amped to avenge that loss here at home where they are 10-3 SU this season.

This one boils down to pace. St. John’s plays at the fourth fastest tempo in the country. That can lead to some bad defensive efforts, but they are averaging almost 80 points/game at home. Seton Hall has three wins by a total of four points this year. If not for those, they’d be an afterthought.  Despite some injury concerns, I like the home team here. 10*

Here’s another NBA play where we will have to hold our noses. San Antonio has lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 games. They’ve failed to cover each of the last five times out.

But, despite all that, I’m not sure Sacramento (who is playing its third consecutive road game) should be laying this many points.

The Kings still carry a bottom 10 defensive rating and have given up more points than they’ve scored on the road this season.

They needed overtime to get the “W” on Monday in Minnesota. I think there’s a good chance the Kings “overlook” the Spurs tonight.

Despite all their woes, San Antonio is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games against teams that have winning records. Take the points. 8*

The Hurricanes have won 6 straight, averaging over 4 goals a game in those wins , which is a step up on their 3.3 goal season's average.  They are on  back to back game tonight, but have a solid record in this situation.  The Hurricanes are an exceptional road team, facing a Sabres team that is below .500 at home.  Carolina is very good on defense and on the PK, and especially good at limiting shots.  They will need to be , since the Sabres are tops in the league on offense.

The Sabres are 5-1 in recent action, and while their offense is down slightly, they appear to be a little more defensively responsible, allowing 3 goals or less in their recent games.  Tage Thompson is day to day, and with the all star break just one day away, he will probably be rested.  It is a hit to the Sabres offense if he is MIA.

In spite of the Sabres being at home and better rested, I am wagering on the 'Canes  tonight.  Carolina is a very streaky team,  on a very solid run.  Raanta, likely starts tonight in net and he has three shutouts in his last 6 starts in spite of infrequent usage.  Take the Hurricanes to steal another road game.

Wyoming is a team in dire need of a turnaround as they have lost 9 of 10 overall with the one victory coming by a single point. But heading into tonight, the Cowboys have a key edge over their opponent in that they’ve been off for a full week.

The revenge angle is also in play here. Wyoming lost to Fresno State 58-53 back on December 28th. In that game, they held FSU to just 36.7% shooting but were ultimately undone by second chance points. Wyoming had 16 fewer shot attempts, which is obviously huge in a game that was decided by only five points.

That would be the first of what would end up being three straight losses by five points or less for the Cowboys.

This team has gotten healthier since. You wouldn’t have known it from last Tuesday’s showing at UNLV, but at home I’m expecting a better effort. There’s a reason the Cowboys come in as the favorites.

Fresno State has lost five of six itself with four of those losses coming by double digits. Over the weekend, they fell by 17 at home to Utah State. I think this situation sets up tremendously well for Wyoming. Lay the short number. 10* 

Usually, when we talk about Vanderbilt wandering into Tuscaloosa “at the wrong time,” we think of Nick Saban. But over at the Coleman Coliseum, things are likely to get pretty ugly Tuesday night.

That’s because the 4th ranked Crimson Tide just got humiliated out in Oklahoma on Saturday. They lost 93-69 in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge and saw their nine-game win streak come to a crashing halt.

But Bama is still undefeated in SEC play (10-0), one of just six teams in the country without a conference loss.

They’ve already beaten Vandy once, by 12, and that was on the road. The final margin tonight should be a lot greater when you consider the Tide are winning by an average of nearly 23 points/game at home. 

The Commodores have lost five of seven overall. They didn’t get to play a Big 12 team over the weekend, but did lose another conference tilt, 72-66 at Texas A&M. Vandy obviously isn’t anywhere near as talented as Alabama and this is a terrible spot to be facing one of the best teams in the country, who should be plenty angry and motivated. Lay it. 10*

The Clippers sat both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George Sunday in Cleveland. Therefore, their five-game win streak went “bye bye” in a (somewhat) predictable 122-99 loss. 

It looks like both Leonard and George will play tonight, so most bettors are probably going to want to lay the short number. But I’m wary of a Bulls team that’s won five of its last six at home.

But I don’t want to back the Bulls getting so few points. Therefore, we turn to the total, which is too high in my opinion. That’s probably because the last four Clippers’ games all went Over the total. But they remain bottom eight in the league in pace and I suspect we’ll see better defense tonight than what we saw on Sunday. 

Chicago put up 128 in a win on Saturday where they shot almost 60% from the floor. No way they come close to shooting it that well again. The Clippers are also due for some shooting regression. 

The Under is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last five games as well as 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS win (as they are here). 10*

Both the Lakers and Knicks are looking to bounce back from losses to Brooklyn in their most recent games. I think the home team is well-positioned to be the one that gets the job done.

This is the second night of a back to back for the Lakers, who lost 121-104 in Brooklyn last night. Neither LeBron James or Anthony Davis suited up Monday. That was their second loss in a row, coming on the heels of the “controversial” overtime loss to Boston Saturday night. 

The Knicks lost in Brooklyn Saturday night, 122-115 as a 1-point favorite. Defensively, they had few answers, especially for Kyrie Irvin. Prior to that though, NY had won two straight.

Curiously, the Knicks are just 12-13 SU at home this season. I expect that record to improve moving forward. The Lakers, just 10-16 on the road, are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here.

Look for the Knicks to punish a Lakers team that is allowing 120.9 points/game on the road. James and Davis both remain on the injury report and if one (or both) were not to play tonight, the current number is a steal. (Note: this play stands whether or not James and/or Davis plays or not).  8*

The Raptors have started to play a bit better. They’re still five games below .500 and 12th in the East, mind you. But they’ve also won three of four, most recently defeating the Kings in Sacramento by a score of 123-105 (as a 4.5 point dog). Now they head to Phoenix, looking to improve to 3-1 on this current trip out West.

The Suns had a miserable post-Christmas stretch where they lost 9 of 10. Injuries were the main culprit. Devin Booker remains out but the team has now won five of six. The only loss in that stretch came here at home vs. Dallas Thursday night. I faded the Suns in that spot and will do the same again tonight.

Saturday’s 128-118 win in San Antonio was a little misleading as the Suns needed overtime. It also bears mentioning that the Spurs are one of the two worst teams in the league.

Toronto has scored more points than its allowed this season, so they should have a better record. They beat the Suns 113-104, albeit at home, back on December 30th.

Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne also remain out for Phoenix. DeAndre Ayton was battling a non-COVID illness last week while Chris Paul is just a week removed from his own seven-game absence. Take the points while you can get them. 10*

Texas Tech picked up a much needed win on Saturday as they defeated LSU 76-68 as a 2.5 point road favorite in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. But the Red Raiders are still winless (0-8) in conference play. They look to change that Monday night against an Iowa State team that’s also now reeling a bit.

Iowa State was not successful in its game vs. the SEC, losing 78-61 at Missouri as a one point favorite. That drops the Cyclones to 0-3 ATS their last three games. They’ve dropped three of five outright, all three of the SU losses coming on the road. 

This is a huge revenge game for Texas Tech, who got beat 84-50 in Ames back on January 13th. There was a wide disparity in three-point shooting for the game as ISU went 12 of 22 from deep while TT was 5 of 26.

Despite being 0-8 in Big 12 play, the Red Raiders have almost always been competitive. Five of their losses have been by seven points or less. Two of those were by three or less (to Texas and Kansas) and they also lost in OT to Oklahoma. There have been three games on the conference slate where Texas Tech had the lead at halftime.

Prior to losing in Ames three weeks ago, the Red Raiders were a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. Iowa State going back to 2019. Take the points (while you can get them) and even look to bet TT as a slight favorite (if the line moves). 10* 

These two divisional rivals meet up with both teams struggling in recent games.  The Jets are just 3 points out of first place but have lost 3 straight including a rare pair at home.  St. Louis is singing the blues this season.  They are just 4-6 L10 and have lost 4 straight, scoring just 8 goals and allowing 19.  The Jets have usually played a fine defensive style with the fifth-ranked defense and a very good PK.  In most of their recent games, Winnipeg has continued to shut down the opposition, but a very capable offense has not shown well.  The Blues are well below average on defense and offense at five-on-five, and just average on special teams.  They have some significant injuries as well.
The Jets and Blues goalies are long-time foes.  Hellebuyck has been playing much better than Binnington this year.  He was pulled after rare poor play, which will rankle.  After a couple of days off, look for the Jets and their goalie to pull it together on Monday.  Take the Jets to win on the puck line at -1 1/2. 

It looks like a tall order here for Orlando as they will be facing a Philadelphia team that has won 20 of its last 24 games and seven straight. Over the last three seasons, the Magic are 0-9 vs. the 76ers. 

This is the third meeting of the season between the two teams. The previous two were in Orlando with Philly winning by scores of 133-103 and 107-99. 

I think this will be more like the first one, which was low-scoring. Yes, the NBA’s leading scorer Joel Embiid is coming off a 47-point game for the Sixers. But after their last three games all went Over, I think this Sixers’ offense is set to cool down some.

Orlando fell over the weekend to Chicago, 128-109 as 2.5-point home favorites. They are 11-3 Under this season after suffering a double digit loss.

Philadelphia is fourth in the NBA in points allowed and holds opponents to 47.4% shooting. I’m not at all concerned about Orlando putting up a lot of points tonight. Above all else though, we’re talking two teams that have both shot & allowed over 50% their last five games. That’s not going to continue. 10*

New Orleans is in a free fall, having lost seven straight while going 1-5-1 ATS. They just lost three in a row at home, so maybe hitting the road will bring a change in fortune? 

Except for the fact the Pelicans are facing Milwaukee tonight. The Bucks have won three straight and five of six.

In four of those five wins, the Bucks have scored more than 130 points. They dropped 141 at Indiana Friday night. They scored 150 in Detroit earlier in the week.

Of course, the Bucks also gave up 130+ in those two games. I see no reason why tonight’s contest won’t also be high scoring and go Over the total.

The Over is 16-8 in Pelicans’ road games this season. It’s the same record when the Bucks are at home. Even high totals don’t matter when Milwaukee is involved. The Over is 8-2 when the O/U line is 230+ for them.  10*

The Bengals were a road favorite just a few days ago, but with clarification about Mahomes' availability, this game is now a pick'em.  The Bengals have had more success than any team against the Chiefs.  Against the Bills last week, the Bengals' offense was the complete package. Burrow threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and the run game put up a huge 160+ yards against a tough Bills run defense.  The defense dominated, limiting the Bills to just 60 rush yards, and Allen to no passing TDs.
The Chiefs are not above giving up points, especially in the air (32nd ranked in pass TDs allowed), and there will be concern about Mahomes' mobility, not to mention the three straight losses against the Bengals.
Not to underestimate Mahomes and the Chiefs, but Burrow is the prince in waiting, the Cincinnati run game put up some big numbers, and the Bengals' defense really impressed.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

PLEASE NOTE: This pick was previously posted as favoring the Chiefs, when the write-up clearly stated that it was a selection on the Bengals. It has since been corrected. Call it pilot error: I clicked the wrong button.  My apologies for the confusion.

The Eagles have home field and the crowd on Sunday, but face a 49ers team that has been completely dominant in the second half of the season. Both teams are healthy but the 49ers face some question marks around Samuel and their starting running backs. Philadelphia whipped the Giants, but it has not been smooth sailing while Hurts was injured.  He put concerns about his shoulder to rest last week but faces the league's best run defense this week and will likely have to throw the ball more. The SF defense is more susceptible in the air and has also not faced a good rushing QB since Mariotta and the Falcons.  Atlanta won that game convincingly.

49ers' QB Purdy has been an eye-opener this season. He does what he is told to do more than competently, and with very few mistakes.  The kid appears to have ice water in his veins, but he did struggle against a very good Cowboys pass defense and saw his passer rating drop by 40 points last week.  The 49ERS are a rush-first team, but the bulk of their points still come in the air.  While they can be run on, the Eagles have THE elite pass defense in the league and pressure a passer like no-one else.
I have waffled about this game, but believe the variety of the Eagles' offense will win out in the end.  Hurts does too many things well to discount and has experience on his side.  Purdy will have to be better than he ever has been under intense pressure from the crowd, nerves and that superlative Eagles pass defense.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

Ed Cooley and Providence are doing it again as the Friars come into Sunday on a nice 11-2 run. They are ranked #23 in the country.

If you recall, Providence was considered one of the luckiest teams in the country last season as they won a ton of close games. This year has been a little different. Only three of those 11 wins since the beginning of December have been by single digits.

But the Friars are just a short favorite here at Villanova. If this line “flips” (i.e. Nova ends up being favored), it will put a fascinating trend in play. This season, unranked favorites are 19-9 ATS when taking on a Top 25 foe.

Regardless of where the line ends up though, I am taking Nova here. Providence’s two losses this month both were on the road - at Marquette and at Creighton. The Friars shot the lights out earlier this week vs. Butler and I see some shooting regression taking place today.

Villanova is 6-2 at home. There are three areas which will serve them well in this matchup. The Wildcats are very good at limiting opponents’ two-point shooting, free throw attempts and second chance opportunities, all strengths of this Providence team. Lastly, ‘Nova has been off for nine days and should be well prepared for this contest. 10* 

Portland has strung together consecutive home victories (beating San Antonio and Utah) and will now look to make it three in a row as they host Toronto (who is in the second game of a back to back). 

The Blazers beat the Spurs 147-127 in a game where I laid the -9. Then they beat the Jazz 134-124 as 3.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

It’s a massive edge in rest for the home team tonight as, like I said earlier, Toronto was in action last night. Unfortunately, that result didn’t work out too well for me as I had the Under in their 129-117 loss to the Warriors.

Typically, spots like this have been good to back the Blazers. They are 6-1 ATS this season when coming off three or more consecutive home games.

This will be the fourth time Toronto finds itself playing in the second of back to back road games with no rest in between. They’ve lost each of the last three times by an average of 8.3 points. 10*

Ohio State has been the unluckiest team in the country so far, but I think that changes tonight at Indiana. 

The Buckeyes had a nice 93-77 win at home over Iowa last Saturday, but then reverted back to their losing ways by falling at Illinois 69-60 as 3.5-point dogs. That was on Tuesday. OSU is now 1-6 straight up and against the spread over its last seven games.

But four of those six losses have come by four points or less. Really, the Buckeyes could have won any of those. 

Indiana had its own poor stretch, losing six of nine while going 1-8 ATS. But the Hoosiers have now won four in a row, beating Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and Minnesota.

Looking at this matchup from a market perspective, I say it’s a good spot to buy low on Ohio State while simultaneously selling high on Indiana. 

KenPom has Ohio State ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 20th overall. Both those rankings are higher than Indiana. I’ll take the points and won’t be surprised if this turns into an outright upset. 10*

Boston, off a rare loss on Thursday, will be taking no prisoners tonight.  The Bruins are 8-2 in recent action and a very good road team.  The Bruins have a fine 1-2 combination; 1st in defense and PK, and 2nd in goals-scored.  Add in a 3rd-ranked haymaker of a power play and fine goal-tending, and they are a formidable opponent on any night.  The Panthers are a sub-.500 team this year with solid offense, but their defense is poor across the board. They've lost three straight on the road, including yesterday's late night game vs the Kings, and travel to meet the Bruins at home today. Very poor schedule planning..
Swayman is expected to start for the Bruins.  He has been very sharp in his last 5 appearances, with a .950+ save % in those starts.  The goalie situation is less clear for the Panthers with Bobrovsky out and Knight just back from the minors.
Boston is favored tonight, but I am actually surprised that this line is available. This is a very unfavorable situation for the Panthers. Take the Bruins to win.

Florida Atlantic has still not lost a conference game this season, one of only seven teams that can say that. While the Owls probably won’t lose today, I do think that it’s too many points they are laying to Western Kentucky.

WKU is at the opposite end of the C-USA spectrum currently. The Hilltoppers are 3-7 SU in conference play after dropping four in a row.

But you may recall, I had them against FAU earlier this month. It looked like it was maybe going to be an upset with WKU ahead in the second half. But the Hilltoppers fell apart late and lost by 14. They haven’t won since.

They certainly remember that game though and should come out motivated to knock off a team now ranked in the Top 25. FAU has had plenty of close wins so far, six by four or less to be precise. Their luck is probably due to end at some point.

How about here? Western Kentucky has been a double digit dog only one time all year and that was when they knocked off UAB. Take the points. 10*

Auburn just had a five-game win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing to Texas A&M 79-63 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Now they hit the road and head into unfamiliar territory as part of this SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge.

While West Virginia is having a “down” year, Morgantown is still not an easy place to win at, if you are the road team. WVU also carries a lot of respect here. This will be the third straight home game where they go off as the favorite against a Top 25 opponent. They beat TCU here, but lost to Texas.

Auburn isn’t as good as either TCU or Texas, nor is the SEC as good as the Big 12.

Furthermore, WVU just clobbered Texas Tech on the road earlier this week, winning 76-61 as a 3.5 point dog. I’ll take that as a sign Bob Huggins' team is starting to “figure things out.” 

Yet, I don’t want to lay points against an Auburn team coming off a bad loss. So let’s play the Under instead. It’s cashed in three straight WVU games and Auburn is shooting under 30% for the year from three. But the Tigers can defend. They are holding teams below 39% overall from the field. 8* 

The Raptors have covered the spread in each of their last three games and just started what will eventually be a seven-game road tip by beating Sacramento 113-95 as a three-point underdog. That was after beating the Knicks at home, 125-116, on Sunday.

Golden State has alternated wins and losses over its last seven contests and is coming off a wild last-second win over Memphis. But as 122-120 winners of that game, the Warriors did not cover as 3.5-point favorites.

We know how bad Golden State has been on the road this year, but at home they are 18-6 and putting up 119.2 points/game. That being said, the O/U line for tonight looks high to me. The market seems to agree.

Despite those numbers mentioned above, the Under is 10-3-1 in the Warriors’ last 14 home games. The total for tonight is higher than the average number of points scored in games here this season.

I also expect Toronto to not shoot as well as they have been recently. The L5 games have seen the Raptors make 49% of their FG attempts. For the season, this is a team shooting only 45% from the floor. Take the Under. 10* 

After a poor performance against the lowly Blackhawks, Calgary travels to Seattle in a back to back situation.  The Flames are below .500 in January and barely over .500 on the road this year.  The Kraken are 7-3 in their last ten games, and have an extra day's rest after thumping the Canucks on Wednesday.  The Kraken have a very fine offense this year and have the edge over Calgary at five on five play.  Tonight's likely goalie Martin Jones has had some excellent outings lately and is 9-1 in January.

The Flames have had their way with Seattle in past meetings,  but Calgary is not the powerhouse, nor the road warriors of last year.  Look for a little pay-back as Seattle wins against a tired and travelling Flames team.

I came up short with my Summit League Game of the Month last night, but that’s where we’ll stay for tonight’s lone College Basketball selection as we’ve got the “battle of North Dakota” with North Dakota taking on North Dakota State. 

Just to reiterate what I wrote yesterday, everyone in this league is chasing Oral Roberts, who has yet to drop a conference game. Nobody is further off the pace than North Dakota, who at 1-8 SU in league play finds itself in last place.

But I believe this to be an excellent time to take the points with the Fighting Hawks. While they came up short (again) Monday at Western Illinois, four of their previous five conference losses had been by six points or less.

North Dakota State has dropped back to back games, both here at home, as they were smashed by Oral Roberts, then lost by 2 to UMKC despite shooting 55% from the field.

North Dakota certainly remembers what happened the first time these teams met, which was a horrible 22-point home loss for them. They’ll be out for revenge here and, at the very least, should get the cover. I don’t see NDSU matching its shooting from last Saturday (against UMKC) nor do I see ND shooting as poorly as they did in the first meeting. Take the points here. 10*  

The Pacers snapped a seven-game losing streak on Tuesday as they rallied back from a 20+ point deficit to defeat the Bulls 116-110 here at home. But then they immediately reverted back to their losing ways, falling the next night in Orlando by a score of 126-120. 

While struggling recently, Indiana has already exceeded its projected win total (23.5) from the preseason. So, in that regard, the season is already a success! But this is a team that can make the playoffs in the depth-shy Eastern Conference (at least the play-in round) so I don’t see them “phoning it in” even after going Over their win total.

Milwaukee is near the top of the East, which is what you’d expect, but they had problems beating a severely undermanned Denver team two nights ago. The Nuggets were without four key players, Nikola Jokic being one of them, and yet still ended up making a game of it. The final score of 107-99.

That was the Bucks’ first game without the injured Bobby Portis. They’ve struggled on the road this year, going just 12-12 with a -3.8 point/game differential. I want no part of laying this many points on the road with the Bucks, even if they’ve beaten the Pacers nine straight times.

Indiana plays hard almost every night, even without leading scorer Haliburton. They are 16-9 SU and 16-8-1 ATS at home. Had it not been for a terrible 1st quarter against Orlando, they likely could have come back and won that game. I’ll take the points here. 10*

A late night affair in the Pac 12 sees two teams on four-game Over streaks facing off as Washington hosts Arizona State.

Arizona State got off to a great start to the year, but no one really believed in them and that lack of belief is starting to bear out. The Sun Devils have lost two in a row, albeit to UCLA and USC. 

Meanwhile, after losing five in a row, Washington was able to win three straight, all against bottom teams in the Pac 12. But then the Huskies lost badly on Saturday, 86-61 at Utah.

ASU may not be an elite team overall, but they are top 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

I think this number is too high due to Washington getting blitzed in its last game, something that won’t happen here at home. Play the Under. 8* 

Dallas really needs to get going as they’ve dropped five of six, including a 127-126 loss at home Tuesday to a Washington team that was playing short handed. That was despite 41 points from Luka Doncic. That particular game was decided on a made free throw in the final 4.1 seconds.

The Mavs are still top six in the Western Conference, but this losing streak has created a sense of urgency. Seven teams are within two games of them, which means missing the playoffs (while unlikely) is not out of the question.

One of those seven teams on the Mavs’ heels is Phoenix. Actually these teams are tied with matching 25-24 SU records. But the Suns have won four in a row after being dreadful for most of January. They’ve covered the spread all in all four games, all of which were here at home.

Last time these teams met, Dallas won by 19 at home. I still think they are the better team and Phoenix is just 6-12 ATS in revenge spots this season.

Three of those last four Suns’ victories were by five points or less and the other one was against Charlotte where they shot a blistering 55 percent from three. While healthier than they were a couple weeks ago, the Suns are still without Devin Booker. Look for Doncic to lead Dallas to a victory here. 10*

Anaheim has won two of their last three games, but they have been picking the low-hanging fruit, so to speak, win victories over Arizona and Columbus.  Their recent losses have all been by wide margins.  The Ducks are not good at all on the road, and have allowed more than 5 goals a game on average in their recent losses.  The Avs have won 6 straight, and have been particularly stingy in goals-allowed, with just 8 in total in those 6 games.  

The Ducks are 31st in goals scored and worst in the league in goals allowed.  Their PK is equally poor.  Goalie John Gibson shut out the Jackets, but otherwise has given up nearly 6 goals a game in recent appearances. The Avalanche offense has been slow to develop this year, but is starting to come, and certainly the potential is there.  Their power play is in the top ten, and the Ducks are one of the league's most penalized teams.

Look for another lopsided victory for the Avs tonight and take Colorado on the puck line (-1 1/2).

South Dakota State, like everyone else in the Summit League, is chasing an Oral Roberts team that is undefeated in conference play. But nobody’s closer than SDSU, who is two games back of the “summit” (i.e first place). The Jackrabbits begin a three-game road swing tonight against one of the weaker teams in the league, St. Thomas (MN).

St. Thomas just got done with their own three-game road trip and that did not go well. The Tommies lost all three games, two of them by double digits. Now they are unbeaten at home, winning all nine game straight up and covering all seven vs. DI opponents. But the trends don’t really support that streak continuing here as the team is 4-12 ATS when off a conference loss since joining DI three seasons ago. 

Also, these teams already met once and South Dakota State won 71-64 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

The bottom line is that I don’t think returning home is enough for St. Thomas here. They’ve never beaten SDSU in three previous tries and the road team is rolling right now, with a four-game SU win streak that has seen them cover the spread in three straight. 10*

Over the course of this entire season, the Bulls have generally been a “streaky” team. Rarely, do they not win or lose multiple games in a row. So, coming off a 116-110 loss to Indiana (where they blew a 21-point lead), now is probably not the time to back this team. 

But the Bulls are facing Charlotte tonight. The Hornets certainly aren’t any good; they own the league’s third worst win percentage and are 4-12 straight up/4-11-1 against the spread since Christmas. I certainly don’t want to back them here either.

But I do want to play the Over. Charlotte has allowed a minimum of 116 points over each of its last nine games. They just gave up 128 to Phoenix on Tuesday. The Suns were able to shoot 55% from three in that game.

There are only two teams in the league - Detroit and San Antonio - that are allowing more points per game than the Hornets. 

While Chicago has gone Under in three straight, their last five games have still averaged more than 230 points. I think we get Over this number tonight as the Over has hit the last five times the Hornets have been off a double digit loss, not to mention 8 of the last 10 times they’ve hosted the Bulls. 10*

I think we’re in store for a pretty low-scoring affair tonight as two of the best Mountain West teams hook it up. San Diego State is hosting Utah State. SDSU has won eight of nine to surge into first place. They are deserved favorites here, but are also just 1-7 ATS at home this season.

Utah State has won six of eight, but has failed to cover three straight. On paper, the Aggies look to have the offensive edge in this matchup, but SDSU is holding teams to 60.9 points/game when here at home.

This is a high total for a game involving San Diego State. Only twice this season have they seen a higher O/U line. Both of those games stayed Under.

Even for Utah State, the number looks high. Only two of their last six games have seen a higher O/U line and one of those stayed Under.

A recent rash of Overs from both sides has clearly inflated this number. No San Diego State home game has had a total close in the 140 to 144.5 range while the same is true for Utah State road games. Take the Under. 10*

Golden State may be the defending NBA Champions, but right now they are looking up at Memphis in the standings. In fact, the Warriors are only 10th in the West entering Wednesday and a game below .500. The Grizzlies are 31-16 and in second place.

But all of a sudden the Grizz have dropped three straight after previously winning 11 in a row. Two of the losses were close, but then Monday saw them get blown out 133-100 in Sacramento. Ja Morant didn’t play in that game, however.

The Grizzlies defense was atrocious in that game as they let the Kings hit 12 of 13 three-point attempts in the first quarter! Morant being back here won’t solve that issue, especially against a team like the Warriors.

Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a Warriors’ game with fewer than 234 points scored since January 7th. 

So expect plenty of points tonight on ESPN. The Over has hit the last four times Golden State has been off a loss, which they are here. These are two of the six teams in the league currently averaging at least 117 points/game. 10*

The Oilers have won six straight games, and are now just four points back of the Division-leading Golden Knights.  With a light schedule this week, the Oilers  face the Blue Jackets after three days rest.  Edmonton has scored 31 goals in their 6 games win streak. This recent surge is largely a reflection of very good secondary scoring behind the the stellar offensive duo of MCD and Draisaitl.

Columbus is 3-7 in their last ten games and has allowed an average of 4 goals a game in their last three.  They are a very poor team on the road this season, and are still not out of the woods as far as injuries go.  Columbus is 30th in goals-allowed and face a hard-charging Oilers team with a fine and improving offense and the top-ranked power play in the league.  Look for the favored Oilers to pad their win streak with  a one-sided victory against the Jackets.  Take the Oilers on the Puck line at -1 1/2. 10*!

We’re digging deep for the latest Game of the Month selection, heading to the Big South on Wednesday. Gardner Webb and USC Upstate both find themselves “middle of the pack” in the conference right now, so what’s the edge? Read on …

USC Upstate is just not good on the road. The Spartans are 2-9 this season when not playing at home and they are losing by an average of double digits. Part of that is they only average 62.9 points/game away from home.

Sure enough, USC Upstate is coming off a 64-58 loss to UNC Asheville on Saturday. 

Gardner Webb won at Winthrop over the weekend, but pushed as two-favorites. That makes it six straight games without a cover for the Runnin’ Bulldogs. But this is a buy low spot. 

The home team has double revenge from last season. Meanwhile, SC Upstate has just one win in the last four games overall and it was by a single point over the last place team in the conference. I’m laying the points. 10*

Wyoming’s luck is due to turn, sooner rather than later, and we may have seen the start of it Saturday night when the Cowboys edged Colorado State 58-57 in Laramie. Tonight, they’ll hit Vegas to face UNLV and I see this as being a pretty generous spread given the Runnin’ Rebels’ own perilous state. 

UNLV has dropped four in a row and six of seven. They have just one win by more than seven points since December 4th. So they are not an ideal candidate for the favorite role and if you need that point to be reaffirmed, know that the Rebels are 1-6 ATS laying points at home this season.

Hunter Maldanado is back for Wyoming, which is huge. After missing the loss to Air Force, Maldanado didn’t shoot the ball particularly well vs. Colorado State. But I expect a better individual effort in his second game back.

Looking at the eight-game losing streak Wyoming was on - before beating Colorado State - they fell to a number of good teams. Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State and New Mexico are the top four in the Mountain West and there were out of conference defeats at the hands of St. Mary’s and Dayton.

I like the underdog to control pace and cover the number in this one. 10*

The Clippers finally seem like they’re putting it together, albeit it’s only been two straight wins and one of them was against San Antonio. But they also won 112-98 in Dallas on Sunday thanks to a dominant second half performance. I like them here to cover against the Lakers.

The Lakers have also won two straight, but both were miracle comebacks as they trailed Memphis by seven with three minutes to go (won 122-121) and then Portland by 25 at halftime (won 121-112). I don’t see this as a sustainable blueprint for success.

The Clippers are 2-0 vs. the Lakers so far this season, winning by six as the “road team” and 13 as the “home team.” (Both teams play here at the Crypto.com Arena, obviously). The Clippers have won and covered four straight when listed as “the road team” in this rivalry.

The Lakers are just 1-8 ATS vs. the rest of the division in 2022-23. Over the last three seasons, they are 14-30 ATS in division games.

When the Clippers are at full strength, as they are now, they are simply better than the Lakers. LeBron has little help. Kawhi Leonard scored 30 and Paul George had 21 against Dallas. Either is capable of leading the Clippers to victory on any given night. Lay it. 10* 

Notre Dame is a team that has really struggled in 2022-23 as the Fighting Irish are 9-11 SU overall and don’t have a true road win to their name. Things have been even worse at the betting window where they are 3-16 against the spread. Not exactly the final season that HC Mike Brey envisioned.

But I like the Irish to at least keep it close tonight in Raleigh. For all their ATS struggles, they’ve only been a dog of this size once and that was against North Carolina. This, I believe, is the correct time to jump in and “buy low.” 

NC State hasn’t exactly been an ATS juggernaut through the years. They are a money-burning 27-47 vs. the number the last three seasons, a record which includes 10-26 at home and 15-32 in conference games. So the Wolfpack shouldn’t be trusted laying this many points, especially off the loss to UNC on Saturday. 

Keep in mind that two of NC State’s last three wins have been by four points or less. And they needed OT to beat Miami here at home. 

Notre Dame may not be on the level of some of NC State’s recent opposition, but I expect them to play hard Tuesday and cover this generous spread. Three of their last five losses have been by seven points or less. 10* 

I feel that Portland let a golden opportunity slip through their grasp last night, hosting the Lakers. The Blazers had a one day rest advantage over LA and were six-point favorites at home. Up 25 at halftime, it certainly appeared that the home team was headed for victory. But it ended up being a 121-112 loss instead. 

That was the Lakers’ first road game since January 9th. Tonight, Portland hosts an even worse team that hasn’t played a road game since January 11th. That would be San Antonio, who has the worst defensive rating in the league as well as the worst point differential. 

I realize that it may seem a bit “scary” to lay this many points with a team that is just 2-8 SU and ATS over its last 10 games. But, if the Blazers can’t cover here, it might be time to “fold up the tent.” 

San Antonio is truly horrific. They just allowed the Clippers to shoot 63% from the field on Saturday and score 33 or more points in three different quarters. 

The Spurs are 2-9 SU their last 11 games overall and are being outscored by an average of almost 12 points/game on the road this season. Lay it. 10*

While I don’t think this game will be “low scoring,” the O/U line is too high for tonight’s matchup between the Bulls and Hawks. 

Yes, Atlanta has gone Over in four straight and shot 55.5% over its last five games. But can they continue to shoot that well? Probably not! Especially not here when playing for the third time in four nights.

Only one of Chicago’s last five games would have gone Over tonight’s total. They are well rested, having last played on Thursday (in France) against the Pistons. This season, the Bulls are 2-0 to the Under when on three or more days rest.

In the first game back after a long trip, there’s a good chance we see some offensive regression from the Bulls. 10* 

The Islanders have struggled lately, winning just once in their last nine games.  They are generating very little offense and aren't as stingy as they have traditionally been.  Off an overtime road loss, the Leafs are just 5-5 lately, but they are dominant at home, going 17-3 in the Gardens this season.  They have won their last 4 straight games at home, allowing just 4 goals in those wins.  We've had a steady diet of unders from these two teams, not unexpected from two top 10 defenses.  As poor as the Isles have been, Sorokin, today's likely starter has continued to keep the score down. Samsonov has been very strong in the net for Toronto.

  The Leafs are very tough on defense, especially at home, and the two teams have a history of low scoring games when they meet.  Look for the Under trend to continue.

Both teams are on long ATS losing streaks coming into “Big Monday.” Duke has failed to cover five in a row (and seven of its last eight) while Virginia Tech has failed to cover its last seven games. 

But the difference here is that Duke has still been winning games, straight up. They are 3-2 SU during the five-game ATS losing streak and 5-3 SU over the course of the 1-7 ATS slide. They just defeated #17 Miami on Saturday, 68-66. 

Virginia Tech hasn’t just failed to cover seven in a row, they’ve lost all seven of those games straight up. I understand that they’re at home tonight and eventually will cover a spread. But I don’t think the Hokies should be favored here against - what I feel - is pretty clearly a better basketball team. 

This will be the first time that Duke is an underdog this season. This despite Jeremy Roach being back in the lineup, which obviously makes the Blue Devils a better all-around basketball team.

I’m taking the points here. 10* 

Expect fireworks in the last NBA game on the board tonight. The Lakers last five games have seen an average of more than 240 total points scored. Portland is not far behind at 237 and that’s after a low-scoring 105-95 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday.

There are only three teams in the league that give up more points/game than the Lakers. Those are: Charlotte, Detroit and San Antonio. 

Additionally, the Lakers play at the third fastest tempo in the league, which means more possessions. 

After an awful shooting night against the 76ers, you should look for the Blazers to bounce back offensively. 

The Over is 12-3 when the Lakers face a sub-.500 team. Portland comes in at 21-24 on the year. 10*

Two very fine teams, both off huge wild card victories, meet up on Sunday.  We are looking at the 4th and 5th best offenses, and the 5th and 6th best defenses, so there is no obvious advantage.  That said, each defense has weak point. For Dallas, it is the run game; 21st rated though improving lately.  The 49ers' soft spot is their pass defense.  They are 20th in pass yards allowed and 22 in completion rate.
Prescott pulled apart the Bucs' very good pass defense last week, and looked exceptionally sharp. Vs the Commanders the week before, it was the combination of Washington's top pass defense and the Commanders' ability to exploit Dallas's poorer run defense that led to the Commanders' success.
The Cowboys can run the ball but it will be tough to move vs the 49ers' elite run defense, however Prescott should be able to continue his fine passing play against the weaker 49ers' pass defense.  The 49ers can and will run the ball vs Dallas, but the bulk of their points are coming via the pass.  Purdy will face a very tough and active Cowboys' pass defense, the best he has faced yet.  Although he hasn't played like it, Purdy is still a rookie with limited experience in a very very big game.  While it will likely be a very close game, I am going with the more experienced passer today.  Take the Cowboys with the points, now more than a field goal.

New Orleans has been trending in the wrong direction for awhile now, losing 8 of its last 11 games including each of the last three. They are now 7 games adrift of the top spot in the Western Conference and 5.5 games behind second place Memphis.

So a win here today in Miami is much needed. The Pelicans will be looking to avenge an ugly 124-98 loss they took at the hands of the Heat back on Wednesday.

Obviously, this Pelicans’ losing streak coincides with Zion Williamson being out of the lineup. Brandon Ingram is also out. But CJ McCollum averages 21.3 and a team-high 5.8 assists. I expect better results for this team moving forward. 

This is too many points to pass up in my opinion. Miami is only 7-14-2 ATS at home including 5-13-2 when going off as the favorite. They were just blown out (by 25) in Dallas Friday night, a game the Heat actually went off as two-point favorites.

The Bengals travel to Buffalo to play in the snow tomorrow against a favored Bills team.  The Dolphins, the best pass-centric team the Bills have faced this year, put up 81 points in three games against Buffalo this year, winning once and losing the others by 3 points.  The Bengals are an elite pass-first team with a far better defense than Miami's. With the spread now at 6 points, I am not at all confident that the Bills can put this game away, in spite of Cincinnati's O-line injuries. Burrow, of all passers, is the least likely to be seriously affected by O line deficiencies. Very high sack totals has been the norm for him until this year, and he has thrived anyway.  The cold weather has not affected him, he loves the limelight, and he and the Bengals are unlikely to be affected by crowd noise.
At times last week, Allen moved the ball with ease against the Dolphins, but his slew of picks and fumbles in recent games is concerning.  The Bengals play a very clean game when it comes to turnovers. A game-deciding mistake is far more likely to come from Allen and the Bills this week.
On paper Buffalo has the edge in defense, especially rush defense. The Bengals are unlikely to run the ball excessively, and as far as points-allowed goes, Cincinnati has the upper hand, with 17 on average L3 games, and 17 last week compared to the Bills' 22 points allowed L3 and 31 last week.
In the last ill-fated and shortened meeting of these two teams, The Bengals were moving the ball with ease.  Look for a close game tomorrow, and take the Bengals plus the points.

The NEC (Northeast Conference) has treated me well in January! I’m 2-0 when playing this conference (which is found on the added board) including a big win with Wagner on Friday. 

Merrimack is a team that just lost to Wagner, 62-57 as a two-point favorite, on Monday. Despite that loss, the Warriors have a big-time advantage going into their next game. They’ve had nearly a week off while their opponents, St. Francis (NY), just played 48 hours ago. 

St. Francis lost 87-61 to St. Francis (PA) on Friday. They’d previously won three in a row, but all those games were close. None were decided by more than seven points.

These teams already played once this month. Merrimack won 65-53 as a 4.5-point home favorite, holding St.  Francis to 39.6% shooting.

Merrimack isn’t very good offensively, but they are holding opponents to 56.7 points/game in conference play. St. Francis has been wildly inconsistent at the offensive end this season and figures to struggle (again) here in this matchup. 10* 

The Canucks are barely keeping their heads above the surface, with a disgruntled fan base and a ton of turmoil off the ice.  The team has among the worst goals-against avg and PK in the league, and even their scoring touch seems to have deserted them.  They are just 1-7 in recent games and 8-13 at home.  Tonight's game vs the Oilers is their second in two nights.

Meanwhile, the Oilers have won five straight games.  They are very good on the road this season, have a very strong offense, and are 4-0 when facing the Canucks in Vancouver. Skinner is starting for the Cnucks in Vancouver, likely against Spencer Martin for Vancouver.  Martin has not been up to the increased work load and lack of protection in front of him.  His recent save % is dismal.

Look for another big game from McD and Draisaiyl, who have been a scourge vs the Canucks.  Oilers will kick the Canucks while they are down, winning again on the road.  My only concern is Skinner, who hasn't played in a while and wasn't strong  in his last games. Otherwise this one could be lopsided.