The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Dodgers come in off a convincing win last night and they’re the hottest team in all of MLB. The Diamondbacks are moving in the opposite direction for weeks now after a shot start to the 2019 MLB campaign. LA also hands the ball to arguably the hottest pitcher on the planet in Hyun-Jin Ryu, while the home side counters with the relatively unknown Taylor Clarke. 

The pitchers: Ryu (8-1, 1.48 ERA) went 5-0 in six starts in May, allowing just three runs over 45 2/3’s innings of work to go along with an almost non-existent 0.59 ERA. He’s 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 14 career outings vs. the D-Backs. 

Clarke (1-1, 4.67) makes his fourth career start, most recently getting shelled for five runs over two innings in a loss to the Rockies on Thursday.

The pick: The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on the Dodgers on the run line.

LA Dodgers (-1.5)

8* play

The set-up: After playing 27 games in 27 days, the Pirates had a day off yesterday. I think Pittsburgh stumbles in its first game back in what I feel is an even bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors go with Max Fried, while the home side counters with Steven Brault. 

The pitchers: Fried (7-3, 3.19 ERA) has made 11 starts this year and he’s thrown seven quality efforts in that span. 

Brault (2-1, 5.87) is being forced into the starting rotation out of necessity. Over 19 career big league starts he’s 3-4 with a 4.97 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Pirates are just 2-6 in their last eight home games following a day off. I like Fried to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay it.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: Both teams lost their final group games, but each did enough to advance. Argentina had a major letdown vs. South Korea, so clearly it’s not going to be taking anything for granted here after rolling through the first two games. Note that before the loss to the South Koreans Argentina beat Portugal 2-0, before hammering South Africa 5-2. Mali has posted seven goals over three games, but the African side has yet to post a clean sheet, which doesn’t bode well facing this offensive juggernaut in Argentina. 

The pick: I think when focused on the task at hand, the Argentinian’s depth at the front end will prove to be too much for Mali to keep up with down the stretch. All things considered, a very fair price in my estimation. Lay it.

Argentina

10* play

The set-up: This is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this spread would suggest in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the home side counters with the volatile Eric Lauer. 

The pitchers: Nola (6-0, 4.18 ERA) is 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA over his last four starts. 

Lauer (4-4, 4.45) has worked 58 2/3’s innings this year, giving up 31 runs off 60 hits. Lauer is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his last three starts, but I still think he’ll struggle here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. 

The pick: The Phillies are atop the National League East, while San Diego has lost five of seven, including two straight. Note that Nola is 1-0 with a 2.15 ERA in two starts at Petco as well. All things considered, I think this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price.

Philadelphia Phillies

8* play

The set-up: The Dodgers welcome back slugger Justin Turner to the line-up, which I believe does not bode well for Robbie Ray and the home side in this opener of this three game set. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler.

The pitchers: Buehler (5-1, 4.03 ERA) gave up three runs off five hits over seven innings while striking out eight in a win over Atlanta on Monday.

Ray (4-2, 3.59) has enjoyed success against the Dodgers in the past, but I think he’ll have his hands full with this red hot Dodgers’ line-up.

The pick: LA has won five straight and nine of ten and with Walker on the mound to open this series, I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Lay the reasonable mid-sized price. 

LA Dodgers

8* play

The set-up: Who could have predicted that Boston and St. Louis would be playing in the Stanley Cup Final?! These teams have been riding red hot goaltending over the second half of the season and before this series even started, I said that whichever of these incredibly talented netminders remained hot in the Finals, would end up being the victor once it was all said and done. Tuukka Rask has so far gotten the better of Jordan Binnington, but with their backs against the wall and looking to avoid a 3-1 hole before heading back to Boston, I believe the Blues “clamp down” on the defensive end in Game 4. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Boston has seen the total go under in five of six already this season when leading in a playoff series, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in five of its last six when trailing in a playoff series. This number is high.

St Louis Blues/Boston Bruins UNDER

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The set-up: There was an over night pitching change for the Angels in this one, which makes my play on Chicago even stronger in my opinion. The visitor hand the ball to Cam Bedrosian, while the home side counters with Jon Lester (note that this is a make-up game from a postponed contest from April.

The pitchers: Bedrosian (2-3, 3.08 ERA) comes out of the bullpen to make this difficult spot start; note that he’s 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA on the road.

Lester (3-4, 3.59) opened the year on fire, but he’ll be looking to rebound after allowing a season-high seven earned runs over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Tuesday. 

The pick: After winning two straight, I think the Angels take a step back in this NL format/ballpark. And after getting swept in three straight in St. Louis over the weekend, I look for the home side (and Lester) to come in extremely focused. Everything points to a rout in my opinion. 

Chicago Cubs

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The set-up: Golden State finally lost a game without Kevin Durant in the line-up and if its not careful here, it’s going to find itself in a 2-0 hole before heading back to Golden State. Durant isn’t expected in the line-up today either, but I still think that the experience that the Warriors bring to the table will help them earn a split North of the border. Toronto got a super human effort from Paskal Sikiam in Game 1 and I definitely am not expecting “lightning to strike twice” for the Raptors. I believe Steve Kerr makes the necessary adjustments to help his team even this series before heading home. 

The pick: Note as well that Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on two days rest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Boston will be desperate to avoid the three-game series sweep. New York continues to get production at the plate despite several key injuries to its sluggers. While David Price has historically struggled vs. New York, he comes into this contest “firing on all cylinders” and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. CC Sabathia has enjoyed plenty of success vs. Boston and I think the veteran will also have a big night Sunday.

The pitchers: Price (2-2 2.83 ERA) is 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA over his last four starts. 

Sabathia (3-1, 3.48) is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. the Red Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 20 this year vs. teams with winning records, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten vs. left-handed starters. I think this number is slightly high.

Red Sox/Yanks under

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: The Padres fell into third place in the NL West after falling 9-3 at home to the lowly Marlins. San Diego will be eager to earn the series victory in the finale and to stay above the .500 mark at home for the season. The home side goes with Matt Strahm, while the visitors hand the ball to Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Richards (2-5, 3.82) has looked decent over his last two starts, posting a 2.37 ERA, but previous to that he’d gone 0-5 with a 4.46 ERA over eight outings. 

Strahm (2-4, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any of his past nine starts since giving up five runs in his first start of the year. Note that he has six quality starts over his last seven outings overall. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 8-18 as a road dog this year, while SD is 14-8 (+7.5 units) in all day contests. I’m banking on a blowout from start to finish.

Padres

8* DESTRUCTION

The set-up: Boston dominated Game 1, but then came out flat in Game 2. The Blues’ definitely fell apart in Game 1, but they rebounded large in Game 2. These are two evenly matched clubs, but I think the Bruins’ superior offense will pull through for them in Game 3. The Bruins lost Game 2 in OT, so if the bounces had gone their way, they could in fact already be up 2-0 here. The Blues are “lucky” in my estimation. 

The pick: Boston’s power-play continues to produce, scoring for a sixth straight game. Note that the Blues’ received bad news after Game 2 when Oskar Sundqvist was suspended for one game for an illegal hit to Matt Grzelcyk. Boston is 15-7 (+4.8 units) this year when playing with two days rest. Great value on the visitors in Game 3.

Boston Bruins

10* play

The set-up: The Red Bulls come in off a win at Cincinnati in their last matchup, while Real Salt Lake lost its last road trip to Montreal. The Bulls are tough at home as well, unbeaten in four straight and in 15 of their last 20. Real on the other hand has lost seven of its last 12 overall and five of its last seven on the road. 

The pick: Note that the home team has won five straight in this series. With the home side pushing the pace, I’m expecting a decisive victory in regulation.

New York Red Bulls

10* play

The set-up: I think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound makes the Brewers well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The visitors hand the gall to Brandon Woodruff, while the home side counters with Nick Kingham.

The pitchers: Woodruff (7-1, 3.22 ERA) enters on top form, having gone 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his past eight starts. And note he’s been even better over the shod-term, going 5-0 with a minuscule 1.42 ERA over his last five trips to the hill. 

Kingham (1-1, 8.28) most recently was shelled for three runs over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Reds on Monday. Note that he owns a lifetime 7.80 ERA in four career outings vs. the Brewers.

The pick: After yesterday’s 9-4 defeat, I expect the revenge-minded Brewers to respond in this favorable match-up. Lay the price with confidence. 

Brewers

The set-up: Two veteran hurlers who have seen better days go head to head in this one and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to easily eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey, while the home side counters with Lance Lynn. 

The pitchers: Decent starts have been few and far between for Bailey (4-5, 5.79 ERA) over the last couple of years, who finished 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA last season. It’s difficult to point out any positives about Bailey as he continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 6.16 ERA on the road. 

Lynn (6-4, 4.66) like his count part has looked decent one game, only to struggle in the next. Note that he has a terrible 6.01 ERA at home so far this year. 

The pick: Lynn’s been decent over the last month, including vs. the Royals, but overall he still owns a rather poor 5.01 ERA over eight career starts vs. them. The Rangers evened this series with yesterday’s lower-scoring 6-2 win, so with each team pressing for the series victory, I expect these volatile starters to get the hook early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* KC/Tex Over

The set-up: Boston’s been playing a lot better after a slow start, but it has a lot of work to do to catch up to the surging Yankees. Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale, like his team, also started slow, but he’s sure turned things around over the last three weeks. I believe that momentum carries over here in this important early division battle. The home side goes with the volatile JA Happ. 

The pitchers: Sale (1-6, 4.19 ERA) is 1-1 with a 2.23 ERA over his last five starts and he’s posted a 2.44 ERA over his last seven starts. Sale was roughed up by the Yanks in early April, so he’ll be extra motivated here as well to atone for that “brain fart.” Also note that he’s 6-5 with a 1.87 ERA over 18 career regular season appearances vs. New York.

Happ (4-3, 5.09) is 3-0 with a sub-par 5.40 ERA over his last three starts. Happ’s enjoyed success vs. the Red Sox in the past, but I think his inconsistent 2019 season continues vs. this hungry Red Sox side. 

The pick: I like Sale to continue his progression and I’m basing this pick primarily on that happening. 

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: South Korea is in dire straights here after losing Portugal in its opener. The South Koreans then followed that up with a slim victory over South Africa. The South Koreans needs an outright win to keep their hopes alive, but I don’t think it’s going to happen vs. the surging Argentina side. Argentina has won its first two matches and it’ll look to sweep the board in the group stage with another convincing effort here. 

The pick: The Argentinian offense is “firing on all cylinders” right now, having produced seven goals over the first two games. The South American countries put a huge focus on the U20 leagues and it’s paying huge dividends for the Argentinians this year. Expect Argentina to win in regulation time. I like the South Americans to put the South Koreans out of their misery.

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: I’m expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring “under” in this round 3 of the group state of the World Cup U20. This one is being played at Stadion Miejski (Bielsko-Biała.) Nigeria and the USA were pegged as the favorites of this group. Nigeria destroyed Qatar 4-0 and then 2-0 over the USA. Ukraine has six points, beating the USA 2-1 and Qatar 1-0. 

The pick: These two teams will be cautious. Each has gotten out to slow starts in the first half of their respective contests to open this tournament as well. I believe the stage is set for a tight/lower-scoring battle. This number is a little high.

Nigeria/Ukraine UNDER

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The set-up: The stage is set for the U20 USA team to advance to the second round after a crucial win over Nigeria. Even a single point would likely be enough to assure it a third place/position in the knock-out round. But the Americans will clearly be looking to push the pace and to run up the score here vs. a weak Qatar team. Qatar has nothing to lose, except another game. The underdogs will be desperate to get off the schneid, having been blanked from the scoresheet over the first two games.

The pick: From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as more of a wide-open “shootout.” This number is low.

USA/Qatar OVER

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The set-up: This is the third game of a four game series. This is a big mismatch on the mound in my opinion and it’s the reason I’m making this pick on the Diamondbacks tonight. Arizona hands the ball to Robbie Ray, while the Rockies counter with Jeff Hoffman.

The pitchers: Ray (4-1, 3.26 ERA) is 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA in 14 appearances vs. the Rockies lifetime. Note though that he’s 2-1 with a 3.69 ERA in six starts at Coors Field.

Hoffman (0-1, 8.10) was called up on Friday from Triple-A to face Baltimore and he’d quickly get bladed for five runs off seven hits over five innings. The 26-year old is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA in four games vs. the Diamondbacks and he has a 14.21 ERA in two games vs. Arizona at Coors Field. 

The pick: After winning three straight, I think Colorado finally has a letdown here. Lay this reasonable price.

Arizona D-Backs 

9* play

The set-up: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. St. Louis is struggling with consistency at the plate and it’s just 7-17 in the month of May, which doesn’t bode well for Genesis Cabrera, making his major league debut for the visitors today. Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola though comes into this one on top form after a slow start and I look for him to deliver the goods in this favorable spot as well.

The pitchers: Cabrera (0-0, 0.00 ERA) was 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis: "The reports we've gotten from Memphis have been very positive," Cardinals manager Mike Shildt assessed last night. "We trust our player development group and our front office and that was the recommendation and we follow it."

Nola (5-0, 4.53) has a 2.76 ERA over his last six starts, striking out 18 over his last 11 1/3’s frames of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is now just 9-13 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 18-10 at home. 

Philadelphia Phillies

10* play

The set-up: San Francisco is now in last place in the NL West after yesterday’s 11-3 series opening loss. Neither team has much to play for here other than pride at this point, but in my opinion, everything points to another high-scoring “slug-fest” on Wednesday night. The Giants hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, while the home side counters with the volatile Pablo Lopez.

The pitchers: Bumgarner (3-4, 4.10 ERA) comes in off a decent outing vs. the Braves in his last start, but he’s just 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. the Fish.

Lopez (3-5, 5.40) has a 1.93 ERA at home and an 8.26 ERA on the road. I think these lop-sided numbers start correct themselves. Starting tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Giants have seen the total go over in 11 of 17 already this year vs. clubs with losing records, while the Marlins have seen the total sail over in nine of 12 this year already when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Look for these two starters to get the hook early.

San Francisco Giants/Miami Marlins OVER

8* play

The set-up: The Mexico U20 team has lost five straight. Ecuador U20 sees it two wins, two draws and a loss in its last five. The Mexicans have conceded 2-plus goals in their last matches across all competitions. Ecuador is the South American champion and it enters off a 1-1 draw with a strong Japan team. Edcuador then went to a draw with Italy, meaning that a victory today is crucial to advance. Ecuador has to win, hope Japan loses and overturn a four-goals deficit in the goal difference to earn direct qualification into the knockout rounds. Mexico lost to Italy in its opening round, only to then fall 3-0 to Japan in Gdynia. 

The pick: Ecuador has been unlucky, as it’s already had a penalty shot saved in each match so far. Note that it only had ten men playing in the draw vs. Italy as well. With the goal differential being a point of concern, I look for Ecuador to finally get off the schneid here with a blowout performance. Lay the price.

Ecuador

10* play

The set-up: Under 20 World Cup and Mali is the host here. That gives these young players a sizeable advantage right out of the gate. This is a tough Group (E), with Panama and France apart as well. Saudi Arabia lost 2-0 to France in its opener, while Mali played to a 1-1 draw with Panama. 

The pick: Mali though is fresh off winning the title at the After Cup of Nations U20, winning on penalties over Senegal. Saudi Arabia is clearly no slouch with a competitive effort put up against power house France, but I think the experience Mali brings to the table is the difference.

Mali

9* play

The set-up: If you’re watching and wagering on this contest, then the story lines and strengths/weaknesses of each side is well known to this point. St. Louis has been one of the hottest teams in the second half of the season, riding the play of red hot rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington. The Bruins are loaded with talent and experience and they got “hot” at the right time at the end of the season. Boston has an equally adept net minder in Tuukka Rask. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, but I think that the home ice advantage can’t be overlooked in Game 1. 

The pick: St. Louis was 28-22 on the road, averaging 2.84 goals and allowing 2.40 in those contests. Boston is 35-15 at home, averaging 3.42 goals and allowing 2.40 in those contests. I expect the Bruins to ride the wave of emotion and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Boston Bruins

10* play

The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this interleague matchup on Monday night and in my opinion, I think runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels, while the home side counters with Gerritt Cole. 

The pitchers: Hamels (4-0, 3.38 ERA) is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 16 K’s over his last 16 innings of work. 

Cole (4-5, 4.11) hasn’t been at his best over the last weeks, but he still leads the majors in strikeouts with 100 and in strikeout rate at 37.7 percent. He is also 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Cubs. 

The pick: Many Astros’ sluggers are on the IL right now, including Aledmys Diaz, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Max Stassi. I think the stage is set for these starters to “steal the show.” This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Max Scherzer got out to an uncharacteristically slow start to the 2019 campaign, but I still think he’s going to easily outlast his volatile counterpart. The visitors counter with Jose Urena.

The pitchers: Urena (2-6, 4.30 ERA) is 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA vs. the Nats for his career. Still, I think Urena is in over his head here in this difficult road venue.

Scherzer (2-5, 3.41) leads the NL with 96 K’s this season. He has one of the worst run support averages in all of baseball, plus his bullpen is horrible. Note that he’s 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA lifetime vs. Miami. 

The pick: Note as well that Miami is just 8-18 as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Washington is 11-7 in its last 18 “day” games. I’m banking on Scherzer going deep. 

Washington Nationals -1.5 RUN LINE

8* play

The set-up: Derek Fisher is the new head coach of the LA Sparks. LA though has to start the season without star Candace Parker, who is on the IL for the next five weeks. Nneka Ogwumike is an MVP and she’s going to be leaned upon heavily here. The Aces though have title hopes in their eyes this season after acquiring Liz Cambage in the off-season. Las Vegas is loaded with talent and Cambage won’t be playing here, but I still think that talented guards Kayla McBride, Kelsey Plum and rookie Jackie Young will have more than enough to carry the load. 

The pick: With a packed house, I think this young Aces team takes it to LA in a statement situation. Play the home side on the money-line.

Las Vegas Aces (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: I’m surprised the total is this high considering the talent level on the mound tonight. I’m expecting a classic “duel” on Sunday night, with Atlanta sending veteran Julio Teheran to the hill and the home side countering with Joe Flaherty.

The pitchers: Teheran (3-4, 3.67 ERA) struggled to open the 2019 campaign, but he’s been “lights out” in May, going 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA through four outings. Note tha the’s 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA seven career starts vs. the Cards as well.

Flaherty (4-3, 4.19) has pitched at least five innings in four starts this month and now given up more than three earned runs in any of those appearances. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go under the number in seven of eight already this year after having won six of seven of its last eight games, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven vs. right-handed starters. This number is a bit high.

Atlanta Braves/STL Cardinals UNDER

9* play

The set-up: The Yanks took both games of yesterday’s double-header, continuing a trend of beating up on “lesser” competition, after having already swept at Baltimore. New York is the hottest hitting team in baseball and I don’t see anything changing on Sunday in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: German (9-1, 2.60 ERA) is mowing through the competition this year and he’s been particularly effective in this position all season, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA in all “day” games.

Duffy (3-1, 3.45) has been decent early after struggling to a 8-12, 4.88 ERA record last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New York is a perfect 9-0 this year already as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while KC is just 5-13 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: After the Milwaukee Bucks went up 2-0, many thought that Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors’ magical run was finished. But Toronto made adjustments when the series shifted North of the border and now the Raptors find themselves in the drivers seat with a chance to end it at home in Game 6. Leonard has been phenomenal defensively on Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo and I think the Milwaukee forward will once again have his hands full here in this difficult road arena. Also note that Bucks’ shooter Nikola Mirotic is just 6 for 31 from range in this series. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 road games following back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten home games following B2B SU/ATS playoff victories. The Bucks have been no slouches defensively either in this series. Game 6 has the feel of an all out war from start to finish. This number is high.

Toronto Raptors/Milwaukee Bucks UNDER

10* play

The set-up: The Diamondbacks broke out of their slump in a big way last night by destroying the Giants 18-2. Clearly the last thing Arizona can do is sit back and relax though as it’ll now look to carry that momentum over into another favorable matchup. The Giants can’t be happy after getting shellacked either. Two confirmed “gas cans” go head to head in this one and in my opinion, this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Clarke, while the home side counters with Andrew Suarez. 

The pitchers: Clarke (0-1, 2.00 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. This will be his second start of his career. 

Suarez (0-1, 4.50) gave up three runs and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. This is his second start of the season as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over in 13 of 20 vs. the division already this season, while San Fran has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this year after a loss by four runs or more. This number is much to low in my opinion.

Arizona Dbacks/San Francisco Giants OVER

10* play

The set-up: After winning four in a row and seven of eight, I think the Rangers finally have a letdown here. The home side hands the ball to Griffin Canning, who enters off his best start of the year after being called up from Triple-A Salt Lake in late April. He’ll be opposed by the erratic Drew Smyly. 

The pitchers: Smyly (0-3, 6.51 ERA) has only lasted five innings once in seven tries this year. He’s been a “train wreck” vs. the Angels throughout his career as well by going 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA over five starts. 

Canning (2-1, 3.80) sent seven scoreless vs. the Royals on Saturday, allowing three hits and one walk. 

The pick: The Angels won’t be taking anything for granted here after losing three straight. I give Canning the big nod on the bump and that’s going to be more than enough to swing the scales in favor of the hungry home side here in my opinion. Lay the price.

LA Angels.

8*

The set-up: I think this one highly favors the home side. The Reds send the volatile Anthony DeSclafani to the hill, while the Cubs hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks. 

The pitchers: DeSclafani (2-2, 4.60 ERA) gave up three home runs and lasted only four inning for a second consecutive start in a loss to the Dodgers in his last outing. Over his previous two starts DeSclafani has now been shelled for eight runs off 14 hits, including four dingers.

Hendricks (4-4, 3.21) has gone 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA over his last 42 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is still just 7-13 as a road dog this year, while Chicago is 15-6 as a home favorite. I think Hendricks is the correct call. I’m laying the price.

Chicago Cubs.

10*

The set-up: This has been a competitive series, as Chicago earned the victory last night as a big underdog. With its ace on the mound, it has to be feeling confident it can earn the split of this four game series. But in a game which I see being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to play this one on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito, while the home side counters with Corbin Martin.

The pitchers: Giolito (5-1, 3.35 ERA) comes in on top form, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.93 ERA over his previous three starts. 

Martin (1-0, 3.86) gave up three runs off five hits over four innings in his second career start at Boston on Saturday. 

The pick: Clearly the book is still out on Martin. Giolito has struggled against the Astros in the past, but he’s clearly “coming into his own” now. This is a “different” Giolito and I expect him to keep his team in this one late. 

Chicago White Sox +1.5

8* play

The set-up: Enough is enough! The Tigers come out hungry to avoid a sweep at the hands of the lowly Marlins today. Miami is playing its best ball of the season right now with five straight victories, but I believe it suffers a predictable letdown here. Detroit won’t be taking anything for granted though after eight straight losses, all at home. Last night they gave up a three run lead. The Fish hand the ball to Trevor Richards, while the home side counters with Matt Boyd.

The pitchers: Richards (1-5, 4.44 ERA) comes in off his first win of the season vs. the Mets, giving up three runs over six innings. 

Boyd (4-4, 3.41) looks to return to form after losing his lat two starts. In his most recent start he gave up four runs over seven innings to the A’s, while also striking out eight.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Miami is just 3-7 (-2.5 units) this year vs. southpaws, while Detroit is still 13-10 (+6.3 units) in all “day” games this season. The slide stops here and now, lay the price.

Detroit Tigers

9* play

The set-up: Both teams are struggling offensively, but New York now has an opportunity to sweep this four game series after its 6-1 win last night, scoring all six runs in the eighth inning. Washington is now 11 games under .500. Washington last won a game when tonight’s starter Stephen Strasburg was last on the hill, while the home side counters with Stephen Matz.

The pitchers: Strasburg (4-3, 3.32 ERA) gave up two runs over eight innings in a 5-2 win over the Cubs last weekend. Note that he’s pitched at least six frames in nine of his ten trips to the mound this season.

Matz (3-3, 3.96) returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to the Marlins on Saturday. While just 1-5 vs. the Nats in 11 career starts, Matz owns a very respectable 3.60 ERA. 

The pick: Note as well that Strasburg is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 19 career starts vs. New York. The Nationals’ bullpen has been atrocious, but I expect these competent starters to battle deep. This number is high.

Washington Nationals/NY Mets UNDER

10* play

The set-up: After letting the Giants rally for three runs in the bottom of ninth last night, I think the Braves bounce back here. And after rallying for three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and steal last night’s contest, I believe the home side has a predictable letdown here. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried, while the Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija.

The pitchers: Fried (6-2, 2.86 ERA) enters off six shutout innings vs. Milwaukee on Friday and he’s won each of his past two trips to the hill and three of his last four overall. 

Samardzija (2-2, 3.69) gave up four runs off five hits over five innings in a win no decision to the Reds on Sunday (three solo home runs.) It was his worst start of the year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 4-1 this year following a one run loss, while SF is only 10-13 at home and just 5-9 (-3.9 units) after a win by two runs or less. Great value on the hungry visiting side.

Atlanta Braves

10*

The set-up: This is a big game. For both teams. The Diamondbacks are desperate to avoid a sweep, while San Diego is desperate to post a sweep. These are two highly motivated clubs and I think it’s going to ultimately translate into offensive production at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Kelly (4-4, 4.21 ERA) is 1-0 vs. the Padres, but he’s given up seven runs off 13 hits spanning two starts and 11 frames to finish with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Lauer (2-4, 5.24) is 0-2 vs. the Diamondbacks already this year, getting shelled for seven runs off 17 hits with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 vs. the division already, while SD has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this season following a win by one run. This number is low, play the over.

Padres/D-Backs over

8*

The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.

The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: The Sharks are on the brink of elimination and in a game which I think is going to be decided late or even in extra time, I have no issues at all in laying the steeper price for the extra 1.5 goals. San Jose has only one goal over its last two games, but overall the Sharks come in averaging 3.67 goals this year. Jordan Binnington has been exceptional in net for St. Louis, but one has to wonder when the rookie will have a letdown? I have a hard time seeing this talented Sharks offense being held down for a third straight game and in this elimination scenario. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 8-2 (+5.2 units) this year after scoring one goals or less i its previous contest, while St. Louis is only 4-5 (-1.7 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous game. 

San Jose Sharks (+1.5)

5* play

The set-up: The Padres have lost six of their last seven, so clearly they won’t be lacking motivation/focus tonight. Arizona is 25-22 and the Padres are 23-24, but the Friars have already take four of seven in the season series. As good as Luke Weaver has been for Arizona of late, I think that the Padres’ rookie phenom Chris Paddack is the correct call in this case. 

The pitchers: Weaver (3-2, 3.16 ERA). Paddack is 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA. 

The pick: The Padres though are 6-2 in Paddack’s start this year and I look for that trend of success to continue again on Monday. Note as well that Arizona is just 7-10 vs. the division this season, while San Diego is 11-6 (+7 units) after scoring four runs or less in six straight games. Great price, play on the home side. 

San Diego Padres

10* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the Blazers. While the teams split four regular season meetings, Portland has had difficulties with Golden State’s “smaller” or “shooting” line-up, with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson being the featured pieces in the offense, instead of Kevin Durant. Perhaps Portland would have done better with Durant in the lineup? We’ll never know, but for whatever reason this particular line-up has given the Blazers difficulties in the postseason and I don’t think anything changing for Game 4. Portland had it’s best opportunity to get back into this series in Game 3, but once again it came up short in trying to defend Curry and company. I’ve also been thoroughly impressed with the Warriors’ defense to this point. Portland’s on the ropes and I look for the defending champs to put the final nail in the coffin.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five when leading 3-0 in a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-7 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. I like Golden State on the MONEY-LINE in Game 4.

GSW

10* play

The set-up: The Indians benefit from playing at home. They also come in off a 10-0 blowout over the Orioles on Sunday. Slugger Jason Kipnis is riding a 14-game on-base streak heading into this series and ace Carlos Carrasco has started to resemble his normal dominant form, coming into this one having thrown 12 straight scoreless frames of work. I think it’ll be too much for Brett Anderson and the A’s to overcome on Monday night. 

The pitchers: Anderson (4-3, 4.41 ERA) is just 1-3 in over his last five outings, most recently getting shelled for four runs off six hits (including three homers) vs. Seattle on Tuesday. 

Carrasco (4-3, 4.18) gave up two hits over five frames in a 5-0 win over the White on May 9th, before allowing six hits over seven innings in a 9-0 win over Chicago.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 0-6 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 ranges, while Cleveland is 14-8 as a home favorite. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price.

Cleveland Indians

8* play

The set-up: Toronto has looked competitive in both games up until the fourth quarter in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Bucks have pulled away each time for the cover. In an essentially “do or die” scenario, I’m expecting Toronto to battle tough here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. So far Milwaukee has rolled through its competition, but I believe the shift in venue North of the border finally leads to a letdown here from the Deer. The Raptors were better at home than on the road all season and if not now, when? 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following a home win by ten points or more. I’m laying the price and taking the home side on the money line here. 

Toronto Raptors (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: The Sharks were average on the road this year, but great at home. St. Louis had its hands full in Game 4 though, but it would hold on for a 2-1 win in front of the home town crowd. Note that St. Louis is 27-22 on the road, averaging 2.80 goals and conceding 2.45 in those contest. The Sharks are 32-19 at home though. averaging 3.67 goals and allowing 2.86 in those games. I do indeed think that “home ice” will be the difference for the Sharks this evening.  

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven playoff games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range, while St. Louis is still only 7-16 in its last 23 playoff games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, a great price in my opinion.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday’s loss with their ever improving “ace” on the hill. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, while the Red Sox go with Chris Sale.

The pitchers: Miley (4-2, 3.51 ERA) most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Tigers on May 14th. Unfortunately a date vs. the Red Sox is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as note that he’s just 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four career outings vs. them. 

Sale (1-5, 4.24) has returned to his dominant form in May, going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA over three outings, posting 41 K’s and a single walk spanning 21 innings of work. Sale has to be feeling confident here as well as he’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros. 

The pick: Sale’s agonizingly slow start to the season continues to drive the southpaws price down right now. Great value on the surging Sale. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Texas rolled to a 7-3 win over the Cards last night, but I’m expecting much more of a “duel” this evening. The home side hands the ball to Ariel Jurado, while the visitors try to bounce back with Dakota Hudson on the bump.

The pitchers: Jurado (1-1, 1.50 ERA) makes his first start of the year. Last year he started eight games. He most recently gave up two runs over three innings to the Royals.

Hudson (2-3, 4.61) most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Pirates last weekend. Despite going 0-2 in three starts in May, Hudson owns a very respectable 3.18 ERA in that span.

The pick: St. Louis is struggling at the plate (getting outscored 21-5 in losing its last three games) and I don’t see anything changing here suddenly either. Look for these competent starters to battle deep.

Texas Rangers/STL Cardinals UNDER

8* play

The set-up: The Dodgers cruised to a victory in the opener of this series yesterday and I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value to take the second in similar fashion. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side counters with Tyler Mahle. 

The pitchers: Buehler (4-0, 4.14 ERA) has looked stronger with each start in 2019. In two May starts he’s struck out 15 batters and his fast ball is reaching 99 MPH. Most recently he went seven scoreless vs. the Nationals.

Mahle (0-5, 3.97) has thrown better than what his record would indicate, but note that the Red safe still 1-7 in his starts and 0-6 in his last six. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 17-8 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is already just 5-15 as an underdog this season. All things considered, a great price in my opinion. 

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: Despite Aaron Nola’s sub-par 2019 start, I still think this is a major mismatch on the mound and because of that, I have no issues at all in laying this price. The visitors counter with Antonio Senzatela. 

The pitchers: Senzatela (3-2, 5.35 ERA) gave up two runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. Over 22.1 innings of work he owns a pedestrian 13:8 K:BB. He’s been better on the road than at home, but note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies. 

Nola (3-0, 4.86) comes in off consecutive strong outings. Note that he’s 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA at home. In fact Nola has given up just six runs over his last four starts. He’s also 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA vs. the Rockies lifetime. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is just 3-8 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range this season, while Philly is 10-5 as a -150 fav or higher. I think Nola is the correct call here. Lay the price.

Philadelphia Phillies

8* play

The set-up: San Jose took back home ice advantage with its Game 3 victory. The Sharks had to battle tooth and nail and they scored an improbable last second shot to tie the game, before then going on to win 5-4 in OT. It was an uncharacteristic breakdown for the usually stingy Blues and in my opinion, Game 4 sets up as much more of a defensive goaltenders battle. Note that despite the higher-scoring game, St. Louis goaltender Martin Jones is still 10-6 with a 2.89 GAA in the playoffs and for his career he’s now 5-4 with a 2.00 GAA vs. the Blues. St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington is now 9-7 with a 2.67 GAA in the playoffs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go under in 16 of its last 24 after playing to three or more consecutive overs, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in six of its last eight after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is high, play the under.

San Jose Sharks/Saint Louis Blues UNDER

10* play

The set-up: These teams played last night and the Tribe destroyed the O’s 14-7. I think the “hit parade” will be on again for the home side here vs. Dylan Bundy. Cleveland counters with Jefry Rodriguez. 

The pitchers: Bundy (1-5, 5.31 ERA) comes in off his best outing of the year, holding the Rays scoreless over seven innings. Despite the decent performance, note that Bundy is still 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA on the road. 

Rodriguez (1-2, 2.92) comes in off a loss despite a strong performance vs. the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing two runs off seven hits with six K’s over seven innings. With Kluber and Clevinger shelved, another opportunity presents itself to Rodriguez today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Orioles are just 8-13 as a road dog this year, while Cleveland is 8-4 as a -150 or higher home favorite. Lay the price with confidence. 

Cleveland Indians

8* play

The set-up: Oakland destroyed the Tigers 17-3 yesterday. I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “duel” in the second game. The home side sends Daniel Norris to the bump to atone for yesterday’s disappointing effort, while the visitors counter with Frankie Montas. 

The pitchers: Montas (4-2, 2.78 ERA) held the hard-hitting Indians to two runs over six innings last Friday, after holding the Pirates to one run over six frames of work. Montas hasn’t given up a home run in his last five starts and I believe he carries over that momentum here. 

Norris (2-1, 3.63) gave up two runs while striking out five over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Twins on Sunday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 23 then the total 9 or higher, while Detroit has seen the total dip under in ten of 13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. After yesterday’s slug-fest, expect these competent hurlers to be the main story-lines in tomorrow’s summaries.

Oakland A's/Detroit Tigers UNDER

10* play

The set-up: This is the opener of a four-game set and I think that Marcus Stroman and the visiting Blue Jays offer great value here vs. the volatile Dylan Covey and the inconsistent White Sox. 

The pitchers: Stroman (1-6, 3.12 ERA) gave up four runs over seven innings in a loss to these very White Sox on Saturday. 

Covey (0-2, 5.91) who faced the Blue Jays last Friday in Toronto and who was rocked for four runs over four innings, walking five and allow two home runs. 

The pick: Both teams have struggled with consistency at the mound and at the plate this season. But for this pick I’m looking directly at the starting pitchers. Despite losing to the White Sox last weekend, Stroman is the correct call here in my opinion. Covey has been a disaster and I expect him to get the hook early. Lay the short price.

Toronto Blue Jays

8* play

The set-up: Two pitchers on top form collide in this National League contest on Thursday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium here. The Reds came out on top 6-5 in ten innings yesterday, but everything points to more of a “duel” between the Cubs Jose Quintana and the Reds Luis Castillo on Thursday. 

The pitchers: Quintana (4-2, 3.50 ERA) had a four game win streak snapped in last Friday’s setback to the Brewers, allowing three runs over seven innings. He’s 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. 

Castillo (4-1, 1.76) has won four straight, most recently posting a season-best 11 K’s over six shutout innings in a victory over San Francisco last weekend. He’s 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts vs. Chicago.

The pick: Note that Chicago has seen the total go under in 9 of 14 vs. division opponents already this year, while Cincinnati has seen the total go under in ten of 16 at home. This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Red UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season. 

The pick: I think Toronto turns this series into an all out war. It’ll try to take the Bucks out of their comfort level while attempting to dictate the flow. From a situational stand point I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle. But note as well that Toronto has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 24 this year after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games. This number is high.

8*  Under. 

The set-up: After yesterday’s 6-2 defeat, I like the home side to bounce back with its “ace” on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chris Archer, while the D-Backs counter with Zack Greinke. 

The pitchers: Archer (1-2, 4.33) returns to face his old team. Archer has been on the DL since April, he’d last five up six runs off six hits over four innings in a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers.  

Greinke (5-1, 3.16 ERA) comes into this one on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his past eight starts. He’s also 9-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Bucs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 38-61 (-15 units) the L2 years as a road dog between +100 and +150, while Arizona is 5-2 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has home side blowout written all over it. Lay the price.

Arizona Diamondbacks

10* play

The set-up: Padres’ rookie Chris Paddack has been unbelievable to this point and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about him, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here facing Dodgers’ ace veteran Clayton Kershaw.

The pitchers: Paddack (3-1, 1.55 ERA) went 7 2/3’s scoreless vs. the Mets in his most recent outing. 

Kershaw (2-0, 3.31) is probably not the same dominant force he was a few years ago, but LA has won all five of his starts so far this year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is just 45-81 (-15.5 units) the L2 years as an underdog in the +105 to +150 range, while LA is 16-3 as a -150 favorite or higher. Lay the price with confidence.

8* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: The fact that the Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals doesn’t come as a shock obviously, but not many would have predicted that the Blazers would have advanced to this point. Portland has been getting exceptional play from the duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Warriors played Game 6 in Houston without All Star Kevin Durant and they’ll have to open the WCF without the dynamic forward in the line-up as well. Golden State used its “shooting line-up” in the Game 6 win, with the offense revolving through Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and Steve Kerr will now be forced to use the same game-plan here as well. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Portland has seen the total go over in seven of ten this year off an upset win as a road dog, while GS has seen the total go over in all three games it’s played in this season when playing with three or more days rest. This number is a tad low.

Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers OVER

10* play

The set-up: After the high-scoring affairs in Boston, I’m expecting a much more defensive goaltenders battle in Game 3. Boston has been an average road team this season though, while Carolina has been much better at home. I think the shift in venue will also help in pushing this total under the number. Note that the Bruins have allowed only 1.89 goals over their last 11 games. Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask is now 10-5 with a 2.02 GAA in the playoffs. His counterpart Petr Mrazek has uncharacteristically struggled the last two games, but he’s still 5-5 with a 2.73 GAA in the playoffs. Note that the Hurricanes only allow 2.46 GPG at home this year as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 20 road games when the total is 5.5, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in 15 of 25 after allowing four or more goals. This number is a little high. 

Boston Bruins/Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 

10* play

The set-up: Indians’ ace Carlos Carrasco (3-3, 4.91 ERA) has looked much more like himself after a slow start to 2019 and I think he’ll find a way to get the job done on the road here in this favorable matchup. The home side counters with the erratic Manny Banuelos (2-2, 6.67). 

The pitchers: Carrasco gave up four runs and zero walks over eight innings in a 5-4 win over the Mariners on Saturday, also going on to strike out nine in the no-decision.

Banuelos enters off an outing to forget in which he allowed nine runs off ten hits with three K’s and no walks across 2.2 innings in a setback to Boston on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is already 9-4 this year as a favorite of -150 or higher, while Chicago is only 1-6 as a home dog. I like Carrasco to get back on track here and take advantage of an impotent White Sox side which he dominated over five innings just two weeks ago. Lay the price.

8* SLAUGHTER-FEST on CLEVELAND.

The set-up: The Diamondbacks come in focused on the task at hand after three straight losses. This is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest in my opinion. I like Arizona and Robbie Ray to bounce back here, facing Nick Kingham and the visiting Pirates. Pittsburgh won six of its last eight, but I think it gets cooled off in this difficult road venue. 

The pitchers: Kingham (1-0, 5.94 ERA) gave up two runs over four innings vs. Texas last week. 

Ray (2-1, 3.30) went six scoreless vs. the Rays and struck out a season high 11 in his last start. Opponents are hitting only .210 vs. him and he has 55 K’s in 43 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is still only 4-6 vs. southpaws this year, while Arizona is still 14-7 (+9.6 units) this year vs. teams with winning records. At this price, I think Ray and the hungry home side are well worth it. Play on Arizona.

9* play

The set-up: San Jose destroyed St. Louis 6-3 in Game 1 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in Game 2 as well. The Sharks average 3.70 GPG at home and rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington, who to this point has pretty much carried the Blues to this point, looked very average in the loss. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Binnington, but there’s no question that he’s in unchartered territory at the moment. Sharks’ goaltender Martin Jones looked decent though, stopping 28 of 31 shots to improve to 9-5 in the playoffs. San Jose is 32-18 at home so far this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Sharks are 53-38 (+4.7 units) the last two years after a victory by two goals or more. I think San Jose’s experience and home ice advantage proves to be too much for St. Louis again in Game 2. Lay the price.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: The Angels fell 5-1 in Baltimore last night, while Minnesota enters off a 5-3 loss at home to the Tigers. With their “ace” on the mound tonight, I think the Twins bounce back in the opener of this series. The Angels hand the ball to Tyler Skaggs, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Skaggs (3-3, 4.70 ERA) has been decent so far in a starters role, posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Note though that he’s still only 1-3 with a ballooned 6.38 ERA on the road. 

Berrios (6-1, 2.53) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Jays, giving up four hits and no walks while striking out five over seven scoreless. He sports a 0.92 WHIP and 51:8 K:BB and he hasn’t even issued a walk over his last three starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 1-7 as a road dog this season, while Minnesota is 10-4 as a home favorite. Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I think this line could/should in fact be much higher. Play on the Twins.

Minnesota Twins

9* play

The set-up: The Cubs rallied to win 2-1 in 15 innings last night and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here on Sunday night as well. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Jon Lester.

The pitchers: Chacin (3-3, 5.03 ERA) gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Nats on Monday. Chacin is just 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA on the road.

Lester (2-1, 1.41) gave up two runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Marlins on Tuesday. Since returning from the DL Lester has given up just one earned run over 18 innings of work. 

The pick: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, this is considered the very definition of “great line value” in my books. Lay the short price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: The Nationals rallied for a late win last night. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames again this evening, I think laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the sharp move. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu.

The pitchers: Strasburg (3-2, 3.71 ERA) is 2-4 with a 2.64 ERA in nine starts vs. the Dodgers. He took a no-decision last time out despite posting 11 K’s. 

Ryu (4-1, 2.03) is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3’s innings in his career vs. the Nats. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 6-2 (+6.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +105 to +150 range, while LA is just 18-21 (-11.2 units) in its last 39 with a home money line in the -105 to -150 range. Lay the price, grab the runs.

Washington Nationals +1.5

9* play

The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play

The set-up: Chelsea needs to at the very least match Tottenham’s result vs. Everton in order to take down third place, but it comes in knowing that it will be playing in Champions League football next year. Leicester won’t be going down without a fight here though in front of the home town crowd as it looks to close the season on a high note, while also paying tribute to their late owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha 

The pick: Leicester actually has a lot to play for here, as an outright would move them to as high as eighth, but an outright loss could slip it as low as 11th. Chelsea won’t take the foot off the gas at this point, especially after losing the reverse fixture 1-0 in December. I’m banking on a high-scoring shootout this time around.

Leicester City/Chelsea OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Cards scored 17 runs in Thursday’s win over the Pirates, but they managed only one in their 2-1 setback to the Bucs last night. St. Louis won’t be taking anything for granted here though as it’s lost seven of nine. The home side hands the ball to Miles Mikolas, while the visitors go with Jordan Lyles.

The pitchers: Lyles (2-1, 2.20 ERA) gave up one run off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the A’s last week. Lyles though has struggled against the Cardinals, going 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA lifetime, including 0-2 with a ballooned 6.14 ERA at Busch Stadium. 

Mikolas (4-2, 4.02) comes off back-to-back strong outings and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t keep the progression rolling here. Most recently he’s given up just one run over his last two starts vs. the Nats and Phillies. In six starts vs. Pittsburgh he’s 2-2 with a respectable 3.03 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Cards’ slugger Paul Goldschmidt is 10 for 20 with three extra base hits and four walks vs. Lyles. I think the determined home side breaks out again at the plate. Lay the price.

STL Cards

The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: New York has been scuffling all season, but the good new is that the rest of the  division has as well. The Mets though now start a very favorable stretch of 13 games vs. fourth and fifth place teams and I think they’ll get the journey started off on the “right foot” tonight. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.03 ERA), while the home side counters with Zack Wheeler (2-2, 4.64). 

The pitchers: Lopez comes in off a good start vs. the Braves on Sunday, going six scoreless. Lopez gave up two runs over six innings in a 5-2 win in his only matchup vs. the Mets.

Wheeler comes in off a decent outing vs. the Brewers on Saturday, allowing two runs over seven innings and I look for him to carry that momentum over here. Note as well that Wheeler is 5-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Fish.

The pick: The Mets have a big opportunity to catch the Phillies here, who only sit 4.5 games ahead in the NL East. The Marlins are the worst offensive team in the league and I think they’ll struggle with production against the suddenly improving Wheeler. Lay the price.

NY Mets

10* play

The set-up: It’s an elimination game for the Blazers. Denver can smell the Western Conference Finals now and I believe it’ll look to push the pace and keep the pressure high from start to finish. Denver gook Game 5 on Tuesday night by a score of 124-98, as it now is having zero issues in exploiting the Blazers weak defensive play. It’s do or die for Portland, which will be looking for a much better offensive performance at home after stumbling the last couple of games. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 19 as a road dog of six points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 11 off a loss vs. a division rival. This number is low.

Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Hurricanes went 22-10 after the All Star break. After falling behind Washington 2-0, Carolina has gone 8-1 since. Overall Carolina has scored 22 goals over its last six games. Petr Mrazek gets the start in net for the visitors and he’s 4-3 with a 3.09 GAA lifetime vs. Boston. Note though that Carolina is still only 25-22 on the road this year, averaging 2.74 goals and allowing 2.83 in those games. Boston posted 11 goals over its final three games vs. the Blue Jackets and it’s allowed an average of just 1.89 goals over its last nine games. Tuukka Rask is 9-7 with a 2.27 GAA lifetime vs. Carolina. Boston is 33-15 on home ice this year, averaging 3.33 goals and conceding 2.42. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is still only 16-38 in its last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 27-9 in its last 36 when playing on two days rest. A great price all things considered.

Boston Bruins

10* play

The set-up: The Yanks took the first two games of this series, 7-3 and 5-4, before the Mariners finally got off the schneid with 10-1 win on Wednesday. The Yanks though are still 15-6 in their last 21 games and I think they’ll bounce back here in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake, while the home side counters with JA Happ. 

The pitchers: Leake (2-3, 4.91 ERA) has been atrocious of late, going 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA over his past five starts. Note that in two career starts vs. New York he’s 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA. 

Happ (1-3, 4.93) has completely turned his season around after a horrible start, going 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA over his last four starts. He’s 4-2 with a 5.06 ERA in seven career outings vs. Seattle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 1-4 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while the Yanks are 6-2 at home as a favorite in the same price range. All things considered a very fair price in y opinion. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: I think that Clayton Kershaw and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The visitors counter with Mike Foltynewicz.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz (0-1, 5.06 ERA) most recently gave up six runs off eight hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Friars on Thursday. Over 10.2 innings of work so far this year he’s given up three home runs and he now sports an ugly 1.41 WHIP and .318 opponent batting average. 

Kershaw (1-0, 2.77) gave up three runs off six hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Friday. Since coming off the DL he’s posted four straight quality efforts. 

The pick: Ryu shutout the Braves on four hits in a 9-0 win last night for LA, so Kershaw has his work cut out for him. But Clearly this is a matchup which favors the veteran and I believe he comes in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price. 

6* LA DODGERS

The set-up: This has been a great series and if you’re watching and wagering on this contest, then the story lines are likely very well known. The Stars and Blues played a Game 7 in St. Louis last night and after two OT’s, “home ice” proved to be the difference for St. Louis in my estimation. Colorado managed a 4-3 OT win at home on Monday night in Game 6, but I think the Avs will run out of steam in this difficult road venue. Note that the Sharks are 5-2 at home in the playoffs. 

The pick: Additionally note that Colorado is still only 28-71 in its last 99 as a road dog, while the Sharks are 7-2 in their last nine home games following at OT loss in which they allowed four or more goals in. All things considered, a great price on the home side. 

10* SAN JOSE SHARKS

The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight. 

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points.

10* BOSTON CELTICS

The set-up: Dallas is banged up. Including to veteran goaltender Ben Bishop. The Blues finally broke out of their offensive doldrums in Game 6 and I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that they can’t carry that momentum over here in front of the home town crowd. St. Louis has been much better at home than on the road and considering the circumstances, I think the line value in this one is tremendous. In fact, I’d say that this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

The pick: With Stars’ net minder Bishop indeed dealing with a minor injury, the scales definitely tip in favor of the Blues’ Jordan Binnington. Look for “home ice” to be the difference in this one and lay the price with confidence.

STL Blues

10* play

The set-up: Miami won 6-5 last night, breaking the Cubs seven-game win streak, but I think the home side will bounce back here in what I believe to be a favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors hand the ball to Caleb Smith, while the Cubs counter with Jon Lester. 

The pitchers: Smith (3-0, 2.00 ERA) has walked nine and struck out 45 over 36 innings of work. 

Lester (2-1, 1.73) has walked seven and struck out 27 in 26 innings of work. 

The pick: The Cubs are still 10-5 at home this year. Previous to their win yesterday the Marlins had lost three straight. Miami is just 5-12 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Chicago is 4-1 in its last five vs. southpaws. Lay the price with confidence.

Chicago Cubs

8* play

The set-up: This is a big game, as the first Champions League finalist will be decided here. Barcelona travels to Liverpool hoping to close it out after a 3-0 win in the first leg at Camp Nou. Lionel Messi had two goals in that one for Barca. The Reds won’t be going down without a fight, but if they’re going to pull off the upset, they’ll be doing it without the injured Mohamed Salah. 

The pick: Bacelona is loaded with talent and I don’t think it’ll be content with a single goal here. The Reds are capable of scoring despite the injury to Salah, as Daniel Sturridge enters on top form. This number is a little low considering the circumstances.

Barcelona/Liverpool OVER

10* play

The set-up: San Jose has turned this series around and it has a chance to end it here and now. The reason behind that turnaround? Goaltender Martin Jones. Jones has a 6-2, 1.94 GAA and .936 save percentage in the playoffs. Clearly the Avs won’t be going down without a fight. Colorado is also leaning on its goaltender Philipp Grubauer, who had a career-high 37 saves in the Game 5 loss, after previously posting a shutout in Game 4. Note that Colorado was outshot 39-22 in Game 5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four when leading in a playoff series, while Colorado has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven when trailing in a playoff series. This one has goaltenders battle written all over it.

San Jose Sharks/Colorado Avalanche UNDER

8* play

The set-up: The Rockets scrapped tooth and nail in their 126-121 OT Game 3 victory to pull the series to 2-1 in favor of the Warriors. The contest would have gone “over” the number whether the game went to OT or not and I expect a similar style of “shootout” in Game 4 as well. The Nuggets and Blazers went to four OT’s in their Game 3 and they came out with a lot of energy in Game 4 last night, as that total easily blasted past the posted number as well. And I expect a similar sort of situation here as well. Golden State played well defensively at home in Game’s 1 and 2, but clearly the Rockets are out to push the pace at home, especially now as they try to close the gap and even the series. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 32 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total fly “over” in four of its last five when trailing in a playoff series. This one has “over” written all over it.

GSW/Rockets OVER

10* play

The set-up: Two starters who appear to be improving with each outing collide in the opener of this three-game series and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium tonight. The visitors got with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Miles Mikolas. 

The pitchers: Velasquez (1-1, 2.73 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget though vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, allowing three runs over four innings. The one bright spot was that he’d strike out seven. Despite the sub-par showing though Velasquez still owns the sharp ERA and 1.22 WHIP to go along with a 29:10 K:BB.

Mikolas (3-2, 4.73) gave up seven hits with one walk while striking out four over six innings in a win over the Reds on Wednesday. It was easily his best start of the year and I don’t think there’s any reason to think that Mikolas can’t now carry that momentum over here as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as ell, but Philly has seen the total go under the number in four of five already this year as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in six of its last nine after being swept on the road in a three game series by a division rival. This number is high.

Philadelphia Phillies/STL Cards UNDER

8* play

The set-up: Neither of these usually “rock steady” starters has looked great this year, but after getting swept in St. Louis, I think that Max Scherzer and the hungry visiting side offer great value to take Game 1 vs. the struggling Jhoulys Chacin and the Milwaukee Brewers.

The pitchers: Scherzer (1-4, 4.08 ERA) is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Brewers.

Chacin (3-3, 5.24) has given up 27 hits and 18 walks so far this year. He’s had plenty of success against the Nationals as well in the past, but that was then and this is now.

The pick: Despite the recent slide, note that Washington is still 60-42 in its last 102 on the road, while Milwaukee is just 25-35 (-5.3 units) in it last 60 as a home underdog. I think the sharp money is on Scherzer. Lay the short price!

Washington Nationals

10* play

The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: The Nationals rallied for an improbable 10-8 win last night, but I think the home side bounces back and earns a win in the finale with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill. The Nationals send Anibal Sanchez to the mound, while the home side counters with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Sanchez (0-4, 5.91 ERA) is a terrible 5-10 with a 4.96 ERA in 22 starts vs. the Phillies. 

Eflin (3-3, 3.34) is a respectable 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA in four starts vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is still just 11-13 (-6.5 units) vs. right-handed starters this year, while Philly is 15-9 (+3.9 units) in the same position. Lay the price and expect a blowout.

Philadelphia Phillies

10* play

The set-up: This has been a back and forth series. Colorado managed a 3-0 win in Game 4, but I think that San Jose offers great value to bounce back at home in this important Game 5. San Jose still has the home ice advantage over this three-game series and I expect it to make the most of it. Colorado’s weakness this year has been its play on the road and I think it’ll predictably struggle here. The goaltenders are a wash, but home ice and a few lop-sided trends swing the scales clearly in favor of the Sharks in my opinion. 

The pick: As note that the Avs are still just 3-11 in their last 14 as road dogs in the +110 to +150 range, while San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the short price.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: Considering the current form of each starter, I think that the Braves could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Soroka, while the home side counters with the volatile Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Soroka (2-1, 1.62 ERA) has allowed just one run in each of his three starts. He’s faced Miami once and owns a 0-0, 1.93 ERA record vs. them. 

Richards (0-4, 4.64) is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA over his past three starts. He’s faced the Braves just once in his career and he owns a 0-0, 10.38 ERA record vs. them. 

The pick: Atlanta won 7-2 in yesterday’s series opener, but all signs point to an even bigger blowout here in my opinion. Lay the price.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: A clear mismatch on the mound makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The Dodgers hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw, while the Padres go with Eric Lauer. And with only 1.5 games separating the clubs right now, clearly the hard-hitting visiting side won’t be taking anything for granted.

The pitchers: Kershaw (1-0, 2.25 ERA) gave up one run off four hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Pirates on Saturday, giving up zero walks.

Lauer (2-3, 4.41) has been all over the map with his consistency this season and I think that trend continues in this tough matchup.

The pick: While they’re 11-6 on the road, note that the Padres are only 7-8 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Dodgers.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: Boston looked dominant in its Game 1 win, while Milwaukee would then go on to return the favor in Game 2. With the shift in venue, I think this “back-and-forth” trend continues on Friday night as I expect the home side to bounce back and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Boston earned the coveted split after its Game 1 victory and I believe it’ll take advantage in Game 3. 

The pick: Maybe part of the reason the C’s had an obvious letdown in Game 2 is the fact that they know how much the Bucks struggle in Boston. Note that Milwaukee is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven played in Boston. note that the Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records. I like Boston to defend home court in Game 3. 

Boston Celtics (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: This series is all tied up at one-game apiece. All signs point to another battle here. Toronto averaged 114.4 PPG in the regular season, but it’s averaging only 104.1 PPG in the playoffs, including just 89 last time out. The Raptors dominated defensively in their first round win and that’s carried over here as well, coming in holding the high-flying 76ers to just 101 PPG over the first two. Philadelphia has to be feeling pretty good about itself as it’s earned the split and won five of six overall. The 76ers have been terrific so far defensively as well, holding Toronto to just 98 points over the first two games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, while Philly has seen the total dip under in four of five this year off a SU road win vs. a division rival. This number is a little high.

Raptors/76ers UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Boston’s bats have finally “come alive” after a three-game sweep of the visiting A’s and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here in the opener of a seven game road trip. Boston goes with veteran David Price, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito on the mound. 

The pitchers: Price (1-2, 3.60 ERA) has turned the corner like his team over the last couple of weeks, going at least five innings over his past three starts, allowing no more than two runs in each. In his last outing vs. the Rays he gave up two runs over six innings to go along with seven K’s. In 15 career starts he’s 6-5 with a 3.39 ERA vs. the White Sox.

Giolito (2-1, 5.30) hasn’t pitched since mid April after sustaining a groin injury. Clearly this is a difficult vs. matchup facing the suddenly surging Red Sox. 

The pick: The White Sox have been decent, but I think Boston’s recent form, coupled with Price’s consistency make the visitors well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

8* play

The set-up: It’s a big game. For both teams. Boston seemed to have momentum after it’s Game 1 victory, but Columbus quickly rediscovered its swagger which saw it dominate the Lightning in four games as it’s taken control with a 2-1 lead. The Bruins struggled in their seven game series win over Toronto and they’ve run out of gas here it would seem against this suffocating Blue Jackets side. Note that the Bruins have scored just six goals over the first three games of this series. One bright spot for Boston continues to be goaltender Tuukka Rask, who is still 5-5 with a 2.22 GAA in the playoffs. His counterpart Sergei Bobrvosky is now 6-1 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs for Columbus.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in nine of 12 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while the Blue Jackets have seen the total dip under in four of its last five when leading in a playoff series. Everything points to another goaltenders battle here.

Bruins/Blue Jackets UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Enough is enough! With their “ace” on the mound I think the home side will salvage the finale of this four game set. The visitors go with Dakota Hudson, while the Nationals counter with Stephen Strasburg.

The pitchers: Strasburg (2-1, 3.82 ERA) is 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA in six career starts vs. the Cardinals. 

Hudson (2-1, 5.63) went a career high 5 2/3’s innings in his last start, given yup three runs off seven hits to the Reds on Saturday. 

The pick: These two teams are moving in opposite directions, but I think the visitors come in complacent here and get caught looking ahead in this get away game and after three straight victories. No upsets here, bank on Starsburg delivering the goods. 

Washington Nationals

9* play

The set-up: New York is out to salvage the split and while “ace” Noah Syndergaard has yet to live up to his lofty expectations this season, he’s up against the perfect counterpart in Tyler Mahle to get back on track tonight. After yesterday’s 1-0 loss, I think the home side is worth the price of admission here. 

The pitchers: Syndergaard (1-3, 6.35 ERA) was 13-4 with a 3.03 ERA last year, but he’s given up at least four runs in each of his last four starts. “Thor” has to be feeling confident here as he’s 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA in five career starts vs. the Reds. 

Mahle (0-3, 4.50) comes in having lost three straight, giving up 13 runs over 17 innings over his last three outings. In his lone start vs. the Mets he lost, giving up three runs over four innings. 

The pick: Cincinnati still owns the worst average in the big leagues at .210. I like Syndergaard to get back on track in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

New York Mets

8* play

The set-up:The Orioles have scored three runs or fewer during its current four game losing streak. I think the surging home side which has won four straight will take full advantage. Chicago goes with Carlos Rodon on the hill, while the visitors go with David Hess. 

The pitchers: Rodon (3-2, 4.94 ERA) looks to bounce back after his worst start of the season, giving up eight runs over three innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Friday. Rodon had a 3.58 ERA at home last year.

Hess (1-4, 5.88) took the loss vs. the White Sox at Camden Yards on April 22nd, giving up four runs over five innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-7 in its last nine road games as an underdog in the +125 to +165 range, while Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 at home after a three games or more unbeaten streak. I think Rodon at home is the correct call.

Chicago White Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Giants got swept by the Yanks, but they bounced back and took the first game of this three game set last night. I believe the hard-hitting visiting side will easily bounce back in the second though with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill. The Dodgers go with Walker Buehler, while the home side counters with Drew Pomeranz.

The pitchers: Buehler (2-0, 5.25 ERA) gave up three runs off four hits with two walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Wednesday. Buehler went 5.2 scoreless before giving up a three-run home run. 

Pomeranz (1-2, 3.65) gave up two hits and two walks over six shutout innings vs. the Blue Jays on Wednesday. It was his best outing of the year, but I think he’ll have his hands full in this difficult matchup. 

The pick: Both starters have had success off their respective opponents in the past, but note that LA is still 10-2 vs. teams with losing records this year, while San Fran is still just 4-12 vs. teams with winning records. Lay the price.

LA DODGERS 8*

The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play