The set-up: The Huskies are just 1-2 in conference play and they're coming off a listless 61-55 road loss to Stanford. Cal is 1-1 in league play so far and it'll be looking to build off a win over WSU in its latest action, a victory which snapped a four-game losing streak. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, but neither will be lacking for motivation in this big Pac 12 matchup on Friday night. Washington averages 72.4 PPG and the Bears average 64.9. Both teams are mediocre at best on the defensive side though and each is desperate for a victory. I believe from a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." 

The pick: Note as well that Washington has seen the total soar over the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after a loss in which it scored 55 points or less in, while Cal has seen the total go over the number in seven of its lat ten home games following a conference SU/ATS victory. Everything points to a high-scoring "over."

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Washington/Cal.

The set-up: Both teams have done poorly this year. But Montreal is set up nicely here to take this game vs. bottom feeders. The Habs are in fact 10-9-3 on the road this season, but they won't be lacking for motivation after going just 1-8-1 in their last ten. The Sens are 11-7-2 at home overall this season, but they're only 2-6-1 in their last ten overall. Ottawa also enters off a tough 3-2 road loss in Detroit just last night. Situationally as I stated above, this one does indeed set up well for the hungry Habs in my opinion. 

The pick: I believe the Sens come in with "heavy legs" after their close call in Detroit last night. Lay the price with confidence.

10* PRICE IS RIGHT on the Montreal Canadiens.

The set-up: I think the 10-7 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are going to have their hands full today with the 6-11 UT Arlington Mavericks. The Chanticleers are averaging over 80 PPG in the early going, but they enter off a poor 78-66 loss to Texas State. A lot of their early numbers are skewed because of the level of competition. UTA on the other hand has struggled for most of the season with consistency, but it comes in playing its best basketball of the season and off its biggest win thus far, outlasting App State 66-56. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but CC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games following a loss in which it allowed 75 points or more inw, while UTA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games after a SU win in which it held its opponent to 59 points or less in. This one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on UT Arlington.

The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Avs. They've also lost two straight, so they definitely won't be taking anything for granted here. The Pens are 10-7-2 on the road this season and the Avs are 11-7-2 at home. Pittsburgh ranks fourth on the road offensively and 15th defensively. Colorado ranks second in the league offensively when at home and 28th defensively. Clearly on most nights that type of defensive performance isn't going to get the job done, but after back-to-back setbacks and with revenge on their minds, I believe the Avs risk life and limb tonight getting into shooting and passing lanes in an attempt to get off the schneid. 

The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-9 (-4.7 units) in its last 17 after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Colorado is 10-3 (+7.6 units) this season after allowing four or more goals. I'm laying the price and expecting a decisive victory.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Colorado Avalanche.

The set-up: Orlando is a much better home team than on the road. The Magic soundly hammered the Suns at home earlier in the season and that total went well above the number. At 18-20 overall, clearly the Magic won't be lacking for motivation here. And neither will Phoenix. The Suns are now fully healthy, but they're still struggling to find the same early season chemistry that they had. Off a double-digit home loss, Phoenix will also be looking to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to avenge the earlier loss and to get off the schneid overall. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up fantastically as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Orlando has seen the total soar over in seven of its last ten as a road underdog, while Phoenix has seen the total go over in eight of its last ten as a home favorite. The stage is set for an explosive offensive affair in this one.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Magic/Suns.

The set-up: I think the 2-7 Iona Gaels come in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 8-5 Rider. Iona came into this season having won four straight MAAC championships, but it enters this contest having losgin five in a row. The Gaels are 2-5 on the road this season. Coach Tim Cluess has his work cut out for him if he wants to avoid his first losing campaign as boss since he took over ten years ago. Rider has been the better team "on paper" so far this year, but it comes in off its first conference loss (a poor 80-61 setback to Quinnipiac) and I believe it's primed for another letdown here vs. this unbelievably hungry defending league champion. 

The pick: Note as well that the Gaels are 4-1 ATS in their last five after faling to cover six or seven of their last eigth vs. the spread, while Riders is a poor 0-3 ATS this season already following a conference game. I think the "hungrier" team will at the very least, take this one down to the final moments. Grab the points.

10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on Iona.

The set-up: Montreal won't be lacking for motivation here after going just 2-7-1 in its last ten. The Oilers are 5-4-1 in their last ten. The Oilers average 2.83 GPG and it's defense has been shaky. The Habs are ranked 24th on the defensive end, but after two straight losses I believe they offer great value here to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. Overall the Habs average a respectable 3.24 GPG at home. 

The pick: Edmonton though has definitely struggled mightily in this spot for bettors all season, going a poor 9-15 (-7.7 units) vs. clubs with losing records and 2-4 (-2.3 units) after playing three straight road games. The Habs on the other hand are 9-6 (+3.5 units) this year in non-conference games. I think the "hungrier" team gets the job done tonight. Lay the reasonable price.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Montreal Canadiens.

The set-up: Liberty returns home to play in front of the home town crowd for the first time in 38 days. This is the Flames first conference home game and I expect them to push the pace from start to finish. The Flames get the job done on the defensive end by allowing only 51.8 PPG, but I believe tonight's contest we'll see the home side open things up. North Alabama enters off an 81-65 loss at home to North Florida, which would go on to expose the Lions perimeter defensive play by nailing 13 3-pointers. 

The pick: Note as well that North Alabama has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 road games following a home loss in which it allowed 80 or more points in, while Liberty has seen the total soar over in 15 of its last 24 after a three games or longer road-trip. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER North Alabama/Liberty.

The set-up: Nevada has won its last two games, but it's just 1-2 on the road this year. The Wolf Pack are unbeaten in MWC play and while I think they'll keep that record in tact with another victory here, I don't think it's going come easily. SJSU is now six games under .500 after a 79-64 loss on the road to Fresno State. Clearly on paper the Wolf Pack is superior, but I think the hungry home side doesn't go down without a fight here. 

The pick: Additionally note that Nevada is a poor 10-12 ATS in its last 22 off a win by ten points or more vs. a conference rival, while SJSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Considering the above factors, I'm grabbing the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State.

The set-up: Am I predicting that the 5-11 Wyoming Cowboys are going to upset the 15-0 SDSU Aztecs SU tonight? I'm not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. SDSU is no joke, winning big road games at BYU and Utah State. Most recently the Aztecs faced Utah State on the road and won by a score of 77-68. Overall SDSU averages 75.7 PG and it allows 56.8. The Cowboys come in off a 72-61 loss at Colorado State. Overall Wyoming averages 60.4 PPG and it allows 66.4. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while SDSU is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I think SDSU wins this game, but I don't think it'll cover this large spread again on the road and in this difficult venue. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Wyoming.

The set-up: The Raptors come in off a heart-breaking last second loss to Portland in which Carmelo Anthony hit the winning shot with just one second remaining. After that low-scoring setback and playing the second game of the back to back on the road, I think the visitors come out flat footed here. The Hornets won two in a row before a double-digit setback to the Pacers last time out. This is going to be a matchup of backcourts tonight. With the offense running through the point, I think from a situational stand point this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Toronto has already seen the total go under the number in five of six this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Charlotte has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of 12 this season as a home dog of six points or less. The situation and the numbers/trends all point to the under as the correct call in this one.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Raptors/Hornets.

The set-up: The Knicks are playing better of late, but after falling 135-132 to the Clippers last time out, I believe they predictably stumble here vs. this defensive minded Lakers team. LA will look to control the pace of this one and take the Knicks out of this contest mentally early. The Lakers have won five in a row since an X-Mas Day loss, most recently crushing the Pistons 106-99. 

The pick: These two offenses combine to average only 217.5 PPG. The two defenses are holding opponents to a combined 217.4 PPG as well. The Lakers had 20 blocks in their win over the Pistons. Expect a slower-paced, lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done. 

10* play on the UNDER Knicks/Lakers.

The set-up: I think the Pens offer great value to upset the Knights at home here. Pittsburgh comes in having lost two of its last three, so it won't be lacking for motivation here. Despite that the Pens still average the seventh most goals in the league this season. Las Vegas on the other is poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning four in a row. Good news for Pittsburgh tonight is that Matt Murray will start in net and he's 12-6-4 with a 2.92 GAA and it's won his last two starts. The Golden Knights counter with Marc Andre Fleury who is 18-8-3, but note that in his last two wins the Knights have allowed four goals in each. 

The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh is 14-7 (+5.5 units) this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 9-4 (+5.2 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous outing, while Las Vegas is just 8-9 (-3.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. 

10* play on the Penguins.

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a win over the Warriors at home just last night and I believe they'll struggle to keep up with this focus Suns team, which is desperate for a victory after falling to Memphis last time out. The Suns are in the middle of an important five-game home stretch and I expect them to risk life and limb to take advantage of this favorable situation. 

The pick: The Suns are still averaging 114.2 PPG this year, while the Kings are still averaging only 105.9. Phoenix has already taken two of three matchups between the clubs this year and I look for it to continue that trend of success tonight. Lay the points.

8* play on the Suns.

The set-up: Valpo is 8-7 and Southern Illinois is 7-8. This is a revenge game for the Salukies, as Valparaiso has won three of the last four between the clubs, including 55-52 last year. Both teams come in off victories, but I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. Valpo though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its upset OT win over Evansville last time out. The Salukis cruised to a 67-55 win over Illinois State last time out and four starters put up double-digit in points. I believe the home side carries that momentum over here. 

The pick: Valpo is also a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, while SIU is already 6-1 ATS at home this season. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois.

The set-up: Colorado comes in off a 1-0 loss to the Isles just last night, but it doesn't have to travel far in the second game of this back-to-back to take on the Rangers. Despite getting shutout last night, the Avs still have the league's most potent offense in averaging 3.71 GPG. Colorado is still also 14-7-2 on the road this year. The Rangers have lost three in a row. Most recently the Rangers fell 2-1 at home to the Canucks. 

The pick: Note as well that the Rangers are poor 1-5 in their last six vs. the Western Conference, while the Avs are still 7-3 in their last ten on the road. After getting held off the scoreboard last night, look for this high-flying Avs team to take out its frustrations on this porous Rangers' defense. Lay the price.

8* play on the Avs.

The set-up: The Thunder enter off a loss in Philadelphia. The Nets come in off a loss to Orlando just last night as well. In this contest where both team's played just last night, I believe that the home court advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it's all said and done. OKC's recent run came to a crashing halt last night, while Brooklyn has now lost six in a row. I believe that Spencer Dinwiddie and company lay everything on the line here to get off the schneid and to take advantage of this particular matchup. 

The pick: Note as well that the Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Eastern road swings in the second game of the back to back and coming off a loss in the first, while the Nets are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a home underdog of six points or less. I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright.

10* play on the NETS.

The set-up: Vancouver has won seven in a row. Tampa has also won seven in a row. Two teams enter on a big win streak and only one will leave with its eighth straight victory. Whether the Canucks are able to pull off the big upset again, or if Tampa takes care of business at home as a big favorite, I'm ultimately expecting this to be more of a defensive goaltenders battle, rather than a wide-open, high-scoring shootout. For one, each side has the luxury right now of not having to panic. Each can sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Each has been receiving exceptional goaltending as well. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the under. 

The pick: Also note that Vancouver's already seen the total go under in 11 of 17 non-conference games this year, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last five after playing three straight road games. Taking all of the above factors into account, I'm banking on this one staying under the number once it's all said and done.

10* play UNDER Canucks/Lightning.

The set-up: I'm expecting a shootout here between these two hungry clubs. The Blue Jackets are 19-23 and the Kings are 17-26. On paper, both teams have terrible offenses. That's the reason why this total is as low as it is. But I think that the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest will help in pushing this total over the number sooner, rather than later.  The Jackets are desperate for a win and facing LA goaltender Jon Quick, who has conceded three goals in each of his last two starts is just what the doctor ordered to get their offense untracked.

The pick: Note as well that Columbus has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 road games after playing to the "under" in five or more straight contests, while LA has seen the total go over in interestingly seven of its last ten after allowing four goals or more. I believe this faster paced contest will easily eclipse the posted total.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the Jackets/Kings OVER.

The set-up: A coule of bottom feeders go head to head here and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Golden State comes to town having lost four straight, while the Kings enter having lost nine of their last ten. Sacramento won the first game of the year between the clubs 100-79 and when the smoke does finally clear on this one at the end of the night, I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. The Warriors are once again without D'Angelo Russell and they enter averaging 104.5 PPG and conceding 112.2. THe Kings enter off a tough 117-115 home loss to New Orleans. Overall the Kings average 107.7 PPG and allow 110.8. 

The pick: It's important to note though in my opinion that GS has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 22 already this year vs. clubs with losing records, while Sacramento has seen the total go under the number in seven of nine as a home underdog. Considering the situational factors and these strong O/U ATS trends, I'm definitely banking on a lower-scoring under here.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Warriors/Kings.

The set-up: It's 8-5 Miami Ohio vs. 10-3 Louisiana Lafayette in the Lending Tree Bowl and in my opinion, this one has ATS blowout written all over it. Despite ranking 77th in the KemPom power rankings, Miami Ohio still made it to this bowl game. Lafayette ranks 11th in the KenPom rankings (and note that two of the Cajuns losses this year came from App State by a combined 17 points.) The RedHawks had an easy schedule this year and QB Brett Gabbert finished with an unimpressive 11:8 TD:INT. The Cajuns average 38.8 PPG, led by QB Levi Lewis who had a 24:4 TD:INT. 

The pick: Note that the RedHawks are just 2-10 ATS in their last non-conference games, while Louisiana Lafayette is already 3-1 ATS this season as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Look for the high-powered Cajuns to dominate throughout all three phases and lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on UL Lafayette.

The set-up: The Suns come in off a 120-112 win over New York. They play with revenge here after falling to Memphis earlier in the year. This is an important stretch for the Suns, as they play the Grizzlies today, followed by very winnable games vs. the Kings, Magic, Hornets, Hawks and Knicks. I think the Suns lay the hammer down here from start to finish as they push hard over this stretch vs. this "lesser" competition. And for the Grizzlies? They come in off a highly satisfying 140-114 blowout road victory over the Clippers just last night! 

The pick: Note as well that Memphis is just 36-45 ATS in its last 81 vs. teams with losing records, while Phoenix is already 17-5 ATS this year in revening a loss vs. an opponent. This one has home side blowout written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points.

10* REVENGE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: The Eagles finished 9-7, while the Hawks ended up 11-5. Seattle almost knocked off the 49ers at home in Week 17, but it just wasn't to be. The Eagles had to sweep their final four games to punch their ticket, including a win over the Giants in Week 17. The Hawks will be without the services of WR Jaron Brown, who suffered a torn MCL in the loss to San Fran. That's going to put added pressure on QB Russell Wilson to carry the load and manage the game today. He'll also be leaning heavily on his run game, as Marshawn Lynch looked stronger as the game progressed in his first action in a while vs. the 49ers. The Eagles are also dealing with injury to RB Miles Sanders, who is listed as questionable here. Carson Wentz may have TE Zach Ertz back in the line-up today, but like his counterpart, the veteran pivot will have to shoulder the responsibility today if his team is going to win this one. Both teams are going to rely on their run game to alleviate that pressure from their QB's though. Each is banged up on the offensive side as well. Ultimately though I feel that Wilson's experience and the Seahawks depth across the board will win the day between these two injured teams. 

The pick: Additionally note that Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while Philly is only 3-4 ATS at home this season and just 3-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm backing Seattle.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Seahawks.

The set-up: The Saints have home field advantage and they have a chance to avenge the 2018 Minneapolis Miracle, in which the Vikes beat New Orleans on a 61 yard TD to send them to the Conference Championship game as time expired. Dalvin Cook is expected back for the Vikes, but after taking a whole month off with injury, I believe he'll be inconsequential this evening. Kirk Cousins has a 26:6 TD:INT, but I believe he'll have difficulties keeping pace with Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and the rest of the high-flying Saints this evening. 

The pick: New Orleans steam rolled Carolina 42-10 last weekend and I believe it carries that offensive and defensive momentum over into the Wild Card. Brees missed several games with injury and still finished with 27 TD's. Additionally note that Minnesota is already a poor 1-3 ATS as a road dog this year, while New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite. I expect at least a ten point victory here, so lay the points.

8* DESTRUCTION on the Saints.

The set-up: I think 12-2 Dayton gets caught "looking past" lowly 3-10 St. Joe's today. Most recently Dayton got the better of La Salle 84-58. The Flyers are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation and it's difficult to say anything negative about them. I simply feel that they come in complacent here, while I believe the Hawks risk life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. Keep your eyes on Ryan Daly for the home side, he's the only Hawk to average in double digits in scoring this year. 

The pick: Additionally note that Dayton is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of 16.5 points or higher on the tail of a three games or more unbeaten streak, while St. Joe's is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games as an underdog in the 15.5 to 21.5 points range. I think the hungry home side keeps this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on St. Joseph's.  

The set-up: The Pelicans lost by ten in LA just last night and I think they'll have a predictable letdown in energy levels here in the second game of the back to back. The Kings had been playing to a series of "unders," before a big 128-123 win at home over the Grizzlies on Thursday. But I think this team is going to once again take a step back and be drawn into a slower-paced affair vs. New Orleans tonight. From a situational stand point, I absolutely think this one sets up as a low-scoring "under." 

The pick: But note as well that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 this year vs. clubs with losing records, while Sacramento has seen the total dip under in eight of 11 already this season after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Pelicans/Kings.

The set-up: Tom Brady and the Patriots have been terrible offensively over the last month or so, but they have a big opportunity to turn things around in the Wild Card. Do I think that Tennessee has a chance to steal this game in Foxborough? Of course I do, just look at what Miami did last weekend. The Patriots defense looks bad and so does it offense. The Titans won't be waiting for the home side to make the first mistake. They'll be looking to get an early score and then to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. New England isn't going to win another Super Bowl either if it can't get its offense producing. From a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: But note as well that the Titans have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 12 as an underdog int he 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including in three of four this year,) while the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four following a SU home loss. Look for this total to creep over this low number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Titans/Pats.

The set-up: I think the defending champs slow the pace of this one down as they try to grind out a road victory in this difficult venue. Las Vegas comes in having won three straight (all at home), while the Blues enter having lost two straight. The Blues will be especially motivated here to return to their normal form after an embarrassing 7-3 loss in Denver last time out. Note that St. Louis netminder Jake Allen is 2-0-2 wvs. Vegas with a 2.69 GAA, while Jordan Binnington is 2-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA vs. the Knights in his career. Note that Knights' goalie Marc Andre Fleury is 5-8-2 with a 2.70 GAA vs. the Blues in his career. 

The pick: Seven of St. Louis' last nine vs. the Pacific have fallen under the number and I look for that strong trend to continue here as the Blues desperately try to control the tempo and get back into the winners circle. After a couple of high-scoring victories, I think the Knights are forced into playing the Blues' style tonight. This number is high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Blues/Knights.

The set-up: I think 5-10 Cleveland State brings everything it has this afternoon to try and pull off this upset vs. 9-6 Youngstown State. This is the home opener for Cleveland State as far as Confernece play is concerned, and that's always a big deal. Cleveland State opened up league action by splitting on the road vs. UIC and IUPUI. The Vikings' record though is more indicative of the level of competition they had to play in non-conference action, as those opponents had a combined record of 95-62. Off an 82-80 win over IUPUI, I like Cleveland State to keep the momentum rolling hee at home. 

The pick: And if recent history is any precedence, then the Vikings have to be loving their chances here, as they took both games vs. Youngstown State last season. I'm throwing the revenge factor out the window. That was last year and the Vikings can't afford to take the foot off the gas now after the slow start. The outright is indeed possible in my opinion, but in the end I'll grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Cleveland State.

The set-up: Tulane is 6-6 and I think it'll give 7-5 Southern Miss everything it can handle today. Both teams backed their way into this Bowl game and each has had plenty of time off to prepare. Tulane's best win of the year came against Houston, 38-31 this season. Overall the Green Wave average 455.2 YPG, which ranks 24th nationally. Tulane isn't terrible defensively either, allowing 378.9 YPG. The Golden Eagles also had some big wins, including a road victory over Troy. Back-to-back losses to end the year didn't help though, falling 28-10 to WKU and 34-17 to FAU. 

The pick: Tulane though is already 5-1 ATS this year as a favorite, while Southern Miss is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog. The Wave have a healthier team on the field today and I think that matters. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

10* BLOWOUT on Tulane.

The set-up:

The pick:

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up:

The pick:

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Oakland.

The set-up: Ohio finished 6-6 and Nevada was 7-5. The Bobcats needed to win their last two games to become eligible. Ohio put up 66 and 52 points over its final two games, but I expect a more conservative score here once it's all said and done. The Bobcats rely on their run game on offense, one which actually ranks 22nd in the country by averaging 216.5 YPG. The Wolfpack had their three-game win streak snapped with a loss in their finale. QB Carson Strong was a bright spot in defeat, throwing for 351 yards, one TD and no INT's. 

The pick: Ohio's defense also improve down the stretch and that unit is going to be tested throughout by the powerful run game of Nevada. Additionally note that Ohio has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after two straight wins by 21 or more points, while Nevada has seen the total dip below in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "run and gun shootout." This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Ohio/Nevada.

The set-up: The Grizz come in off a 117-104 win over Charlotte. Memphis is going to have its hands full here vs. a hungry Kings team which has lost eight straight. The Kings are struggling offensively right now though, as they come in off a terrible 105-87 loss to the Clippers. The Kings have been decent defensively though, allowing only 108.2 PPG. 

The pick: From a situational stand point it sets up as more of a defensive, low-scoring game, but also note that Memphis has seen the total go under the number in eight of nine road games this season when the total is greater than or equal to 220, while Sacramento has seen the total go under in ten of 15 at home and in 13 of 20 when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent this season. This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* play on the UNDER Grizzlies/Kings.

The set-up: I lay chalk when I think the situation calls for it. I believe that the Flyers are worth laying the chalk here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Philly comes in off a 5-3 loss to LA, so it'll be hungry and focussed here after that hiccup. The Knights come in off a 5-2 win over the Ducks, but I think they'll get caught looking past their non-conference opponent today. 

The pick: The Flyers are 7-3 (+3.7 units) in their last ten after allowing four goals or more in their previous contest, while the Golden Knights are just 6-8 (-5.8 units) this season in non-conference contests. I think Las Vegas is set up for the letdown here, but as mentioned above, in a contest which I envision being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals.

10* NON-CONF PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Philadelphia Flyers.

The set-up: The Raptors have played better than most thought they would this year without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. Every night Toronto takes the court it has a target on its back as teams try to knock off the defending champs. Toronto is 3.5 games back of Miami and it comes to town without the services of key figures Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol. Miami beat Toronto 121-110 in OT back on December 3rd in the lone matchup this year and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards here at home. Toronto is off a 117-97 win over the Cavs, while Miami enters off a poor 123-105 loss to the lowly Wizards. 

The pick: Note that Toronto is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in South Beach, while Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss. Look for the Heat to play with passion from start to finish after their latest embarrassing effort as they look to kick this injured Raptors team from start to finish.

10* play on the HEAT.

The set-up:

The pick:

8* play on the HORNETS.

The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset here. The 3-9 St. Joe's Hawks though won't be lacking for motivation today as they try to pull off the upset vs. the 10-3 Spiders. Richmond's early record has much to do with strength of schedule. The same can also be said of the Hawks. The Spiders though enter having lost two straight, falling 90-78 to Alabama and then getting crushed at home by Radford 73-58. St. Joes on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 84-69 victory over William and Mary. The Spiders average 76.3 PPG and the Hawks average 71.6. 

The pick: I think it sets up well for the hungry Hawks to keep this one close from a situational stand point, but also note that the Hawks have responded well in this spot from an ATS angle as well, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a dog. The Spiders on the other hand are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after a loss by ten points or more. I look for the Hawks to build off their latest performance and to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest.

10* UPSET SHOCKER BEST OF THE BEST on St. Joes.

The set-up: The Vols went 7-5 and the Hoosiers went 8-4. Indiana' QB Payton Ramsey finished with 2,227 yards passing with 13 TD's in ten games. The Hoosiers averaged 444 yards per game on offense, including 308.7 per game through the air, which ranked 13th in the country. Indiana was also stout on the defensive side, allowing only 24.5 PPG, which ranks 49th. Vols' QB Jarrett Guarantano threw for 1,937 yards and a 16:6 TD:INT. A blow to Tennessee's offense today though is the loss of WR Jauan Jennings, who had 942 receiving yards and eight major scores, but who is suspended. 

The pick: Additionally note that Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 3-10 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite (including just 1-3 ATS this season), while Indiana is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records. I like Ramsey to take advantage of the Vols' suspect secondary. Grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Indiana.

The set-up: BC became bowl eligible after knocking off Pittsburgh in its regular season finale. Cincinnati was rolling along nicely until back-to-back losses to Memphis (losing in the regular season finale, as well as the Conference USA Championship game.)BC Head Coach Steve Addazio was let go, so that means that this one means a lot to interim coach Rich Gunnel. BC' QB Dennis Grosel stepped in admirably for Anthony Brown and I think he'll have his opportunities vs. this Bearcats' secondary which ranks 80th in the league vs. the pass. BC is going to have its hands full stopping Cincinnati's rush attack, which averages 198 YPG on the ground. QB Desmond Ridder had a week 17:9 TD:INT though. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that BC is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine as a dog in teh 3.5 to ten points range (including 5-0 ATS this year), while Cinncy is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm grabbing the points.

10* BLOWOUT on Boston College.

The set-up: Baylor is 11-2 and Georgia is 11-2. The Bears are the fifth ranked team in the country and the Bulldogs are the seventh. The Bears average 35.2 PPG and they allow 19.3. Georgia was in the Sugar Bowl last year and it lost. The Bulldogs will be especially motivated tonight. Georgia averages 31.2 PPG and it allows only 12.5, but I think the defense is pushed to the brink here by this Bears' high-flying offensive attack. 

The pick: Note as well that Baylor has seen the total fly over the number in three of its last four after two weeks or more of rest, while Georgia has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven neutral site affairs when the total is set between 41.5 and 45. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Baylor/Georgia.

The set-up: Wyoming beat Nebraska Wesleyan 82-68 in its last outing, while Boise State got the better of CSU Northridge on Saturday, winning 103-72. Jake Hendricks had 21 points for the Cowboys in their latest win. I think the lowly Cowboys catch the Broncos complacent here. Boise State has won three straight and I do indeed expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support us as well, as note that Boise State is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 off a home win by ten points or more, including only 1-3 ATS this year, while Wyoming is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a home victory. I like the improving visiting side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Wyoming.

The set-up: I like the 11-2 Ducks and the points vs. the 10-3 Badgers. The Ducks upset Utah 37-15 in the Pac 12 Championship and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. That was a huge victory and it catapulted them immediately into this contest, while ruining the Utes' chances at a playoff spot. Perhaps the most impressive part of the victory was holding the powerful Utes to just 15 points. I think senior Justin Herbert wil be a difference maker here, as he enters with a sharp 32:5 TD:INT. The Badgers had a 21-7 lead over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, but then the Buckeyes blew them out 27-0 in the second half. QB Justin Fields was a bright spot in the setback with 300 yards and three TD's, but I believe he'll have his hands full with a Ducks' defense which held six teams to single-digits in points this year.  

The pick: Note as well that Wisconsin is already 0-2 ATS this year off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a win by 21 points or more. I like Herbert and the Ducks' suffocating defense to build off their latest performance; grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Oregon.

The set-up: It's 9-3 Michigan vs. 10-2 Alabama. Michigan QB Shea Patterson finished with a 22:6 TD:INT. The Wolverines allow just 3.03 YPC on the defensive side. For the most part Michigan looked pretty good this year, but it did struggle against its elite opponents, which led to the overall disappointing record once it was all said and done.

The pick: Talk about disappointments, the fact that the Tide weren't in the playoff was viewed by many as a major mistake. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl was the final nail in the coffin to their hopes. That said, I still think that Mac Jones is going to have his opportunities here. Additionally note that Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a dog (including only 1-2 ATS this season,) while Bama is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in its previous outing. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama.

The set-up: 10-2 Minnesota takes on 9-3 Auburn in the Outback Bowl and in my opinion, I think the Tigers have a clear upper-hand. Both teams looked pretty good overall this year. Minnesota lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in its finale. QB Tanner Morgan had a sharp 28:6 TD:INT this season, but I think he'll have his hands full here with this stingy Tigers' defense. Auburn comes in with a ton of momentum after holding on for an upset 47-45 win over Alabama in its finale. QB Bo Nix had a 15:6 TD:INT. The defense allows only 18.6 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is a poor 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Auburn is a strong 6-2 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite. I think the Tigers' defense is the difference maker. Lay the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Auburn.

The set-up: I like the 11-2 Utes to lay the hammer down on the 7-5 Longhorns. Utah is out for redemption here as it fell 37-15 in the Pac 12 Championship Game to Oregon. Sam Ehlinger and Texas beat Texas Tech 49-24 in their finale. Overall the Longhorns average 35 PPG, while allowing 28.9. The Utes though are ranked sixth in the country on the defensive side of the ball, allowing only 13.2 PPG. Utah also possesses a strong offense, led by QB Tyler Huntley who has 2,966 passing yards and an 18:4 TD:INT. 

The pick: Note that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Texas is only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. The Utes' elite defense will be able to center in on Ehlinger here and I believe that Texas will have a hard time keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on Utah.

The set-up: 7-5 Georgia State gets ready to pull off an upset over 7-5 Wyoming. The Cowboys though finised up terribly, losing three of their last four. Wyoming is very one-dimensional on the offensive end, ranked 27th in rushing and 125th with the pass. The Cowboys also only concede 17.8 PPG. Georgia State also stumbled down the stretch, losing three of four and just like the Cowboys, the Panthers rely on a strong run game on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 245.2 YPG, which is ranked 14th in the country. 

The pick: Wyoming only averages 24.3 PPG though, and that drops to just 15.3 PPG over its last four. The Panthers were terrible defensively down the stretch, but those numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of the competition. Georgia State' QB Dan Ellington had a sharp 21:7 TD:INT and I think he'll keep his team competitive late. Wyoming is sixth against the rush, but 111th against the pass. Look for Ellington and the Panthers to take advantage. Grab the points.

8* play on Georgia State.

The set-up: I like K-State to pull off the minor upset here today vs. 10-2 Navy. Kansas State finished 8-4 and won its last two games. The Midshipmen won eight of their final nine contests. Navy most recently crushed hapless Army, outrushing the Knights 395-123. K-State' QB Skylar Thompson though is a dual threat, throwing for 2,000 yards and 12 TD's, while running in for another ten on the ground. 

The pick: K-State held both Iowa State and Texas Tech to less than 80 rushing yards each in its final two victories of the year and I believe they're going to be able to slow down this run heavy Navy attack. Additionally note that K-State is 6-2 ATS already this year when playing the role of underdog, while Navy is already only 1-3 ATS this season after allowing 14 points or less in its previous outing. Grab the points.

8* play on Kansas State. 

The set-up: I think that 6-6 Florida State will have its hands full with 7-5 Arizona State. Both teams enter with some momentum. FSU though got crushed in its final game vs. Florida, while ASU, who has looked far from perfect, will still now be looking to build off its season closing 31-28 upset win over Oregon, which pushed it out of the championship. FSU is led by James Blackman and RB Cam Akers, who had 1,144 rushing yards and 14 TD's. At the end of the day the Seminoles averaged 29.1 PPG. ASU' QB Jayden Daniels had 400 passing yards and three TD's in the win over Oregon. Daniels is a difference maker here in my opinion, as the talented back finished with a sharp 17:2 TD:INT. 

The pick: Additionally note that FSU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog and 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while ASU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss. I think the balance that ASU presents on both sides of the ball will be too much for FSU to handle down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on ASU.

The set-up: I like the 8-4 Virginia Tech Hokies to find a way to get the job done here. Kentucky is 7-5 and is reliant upon its ground game on offense, while VT has a much more balanced attack. Ultimately I believe it's this balance which will win the day on this one. VT had won three straight before then falling 39-30 to UVA in rivarly week. QB Hendon Hooker was decen this year with 1,445 yards passing and an 11:2 TD:INT. 

The pick: The Wildcats ended the season with a 45-13 win over Louisville, as Lynn Bowden Jr. had 284 yards and four TD's. I think VT though can slow down Bowden Jr and note that the Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games, while VT is 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. Lay the points.

8* play on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Suns. Phoenix just broke its seven-game losing streak vs. the Kings and they now face a desperate Blazers team, which has lost three in a row and which will emabark on tough Western road swing after this contest. For all intents and purposes, this becomes a "must win" scenario for Phoenix. The Blazers defeated the Suns by only one point earlier in the year, so they definitely won't be looking past their opponent today either. 

The pick: Additionally note that Phoenix is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive losses. I'm laying the points and expecting the home side to risk life and limb from start to finish.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up: Cleary I'm not predicting an outright win for 2-11 Detroit today, but I do think that the 13-1 Bulldogs will get caught "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent today to the New Years break and then conference action. Most recently the Titans were competitive in another loss to Oakland, falling 78-69. Overall Detroit averages 66.9 PPG and it allows 79.8. Keep your eyes on Antoine Davis, who averages 25.2 points and 4.4 assists per game. The Bulldogs average 88.2 PPG and they allow 68.1. Filip Petrusev leads Gonzaga in scoring this season, averaging 16.7 PPG. 

The pick: Note though that Detroit is already 3-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in two of its last three vs. the spread, while Gonzaga is already just 3-4 ATS this year after three or more SU victories. I look for the Bulldogs to go up early and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points.

8* DESTRUCTION on Detroit.

The set-up: Virginia lost to Clemson in the ACC Title game and finished 9-4, while Florida wasn't quite as good as Georgia in the SEC, but still finishing 10-2. The Cavs fell 62-17 to Clemson in the title game, but overall UVA has been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 32.4 PPG and allowing 26.5. The Gators are averaging 33 PPG and allowing only 14.4. I think UVA is going to have difficulties moving the ball again vs. this Florida defense which is ranked among the best in the nation. 

The pick: Note as well that UVA has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or longer lay off, while Florida has seen the total go under in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Florida went over the number just four times this year and I don't expect that strong trend to change tonight. Play the under. 

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER UVA/Florida.

The set-up: Wisconsin Green Bay is 5-9 and Northern Kentucky is 9-4. The Phoenix are the "hungrier" team here and while their defense leaves everything to be desired, they average a whopping 82.7 PPG. Most recently Green Bay fell 90-84 to a tough Wright State team. The Phoenix often play five guards on the floor at once and I think they'll stretch the Norse today, who rely on their play in the paint to score. UNK has won three of its last four after pulling away for a 74-64 win over Milwaukee last time out. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Phoenix are already 6-3 ATS on the road this season and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a loss by six points or less. UNK on the other hand is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range and interestingly 0-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which concede 77 plus points per contest. I think the Phoenix' unorthodox style and high-scoring rate proves to be the difference in this one. That said, let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin Green Bay.

The set-up: Outright win? It's possible obviously. But in a contest which I envision to be very competitive, I'm going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams finished 6-6. Cal had to win its last two games to become eligible, while Illinois backed its way into this Bowl after losing its final two outings. Cal is stout defensively, allowing only 22.1 PPG. Unfortunatley it only averages 20.1 PPG, led by QB Chase Garbers. The Illini lost 19-10 to Iowa and then 29-10 to Northwestern. Illinois though averages 27.3 PPG, while allowing 25.4. 

The pick: Despite injuries, I like the Fighting Illini here. Note as well that they're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 off two straight loss against conference rivals (including 2-0 ATS this season,) while Cal is only 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite (including just 2-4 ATS this year.) Grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Illinois.

The set-up: Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic at 7-5. After three straight victories it dropped its finale 45-13 to Kentucky. The road to this bowl was more difficult for Mississippi State though, which finshed 6-6, including a close one in its finale vs. Ole Miss to finally become eligible. The Cards like to run the ball, but expect to see a heavy dose of QB Micale Cunningham, as the Bulldogs are allowing 241.3 passing yards per game. Mississippi State likes to run the ball as well, averaging 226.9 YPG and while the Cardinals have struggled against the run this year, Louisville isn't going to have to worry about much of a passing attack this evening, as the Bulldogs are outside the Top 100 in that category, averaging 176 passing YPG. 

The pick: Note as well that Mississippi State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a neutral site favorite and only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Louisville is 3-1 ATS already this season after allowing 37 points or more in its previous outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

8* BLOWOUT on Louisville.

The set-up: I like 7-5 Western Michigan to pull off the minor upset vs. 8-4 WKU. The Hilltoppers have a decent offense, but they're led by their defense which allows 20.1 PPG. WMU though will be especially motivated here in my opinion because of the way its season ended. The Broncos lost to NIU 17-14 in their finale, which cost them a shot in the MAC Title game. WMU's offense though is among the best in the nation, averaging 34.2 PPG, behind a 24th ranked rushing attack. WKU QB Ty Storey has a weak 12:5 TD:INT. WMU is 69th in the country in defending the pass and 94th vs. the run. 

The pick: I'll point out though that WMU is 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after scoring less than 20 points in its previous contest, while WKU is only 5-13 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite. WMU has a balanced offense as mentioned above, led by RB LeVante Ballamy, who has 1,412 rushing yards and 23 TD's. I'm expecting the outright, but in the end I'll grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on WMU.

The set-up: The winner of this game will win the NFC West. Forget that the Seahawks have "Beast Mode" as their RB now. Forget about what each team has done to this point, and please just look at these stats below, as they are what I'm basing my pick on entirely:

Seahawks in primetime:

16-4-2 ATS L22 at home

14-4-1 ATS L19 divisional games

14-2 ATS L16 as an underdog

Seahawks as a home underdog:

9-0 ATS L9 

Seahawks after an ATS loss:

9-1-1 ATS

The pick: 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Seattle Seahawks.

The set-up: The Isles have done better than most expected they would this year, but I think their fast start is definitely over. The Isles come in having lost two straight and lack of offensive production has been the issue. The defense and goaltending carried the load in the early going, but now the team is starting to wear down. The Wild started the year terribly, but Minnesota has quietly started to turn things around with two straight wins and I look for it to carry over that momentum here. 

The pick: The Wild average 3.47 GPG at home and I think New York struggles to keep pace today on the road. Note as well that the Islanders are a poor 5-8 (-5.7 units) this season in non-conference games, while the Wild are 8-4 in their last 12 in the same position. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* BEST OF THE BEST is on the Minnesota Wild.

The set-up: The 4-11 Miami Dolphins are at New England to take on the 12-3 Patriots. Miami and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be out to play spoiler here, so expect the visitors to open up the playbook from start to finish on offense (Fitzpatrick had four TD's in last week's 38-35 win over the Bengals.) The Patriots destroyed the Fish 43-0 in Week 2 and I believe that Tom Brady and company will be looking to end the season on a high-note as well. Brady has been shaky over the last month and the Pats just 4-3 SU their last seven. With one last chance for a tune-up, I think Brady puts on an exhibition today. 

The pick: Miami has seen the total go over in four of five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent already this season, while NE has seen the total soar over in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 14.5 to 21 points range. Considering the situational and trend based factors listed above, I absolutely believe that this number is low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Miami/New England.

The set-up: The 1-9 Cornell Big Red are going to slide under the radar here vs. the 10-2 Nittany Lions in my opinion. In their most recent 80-76 loss at Hartford, Cornell was led by Jimmy Boeheim with 26 points. Cornell though is on the brink though, as note that it's lost five games by four points or less and a sixth against reigning Patriot League champ Colgate in a game it led by double digits in the second half. The Lions have won ten in a row and they're perfect at home. But with the New Year's break on the horizon, before conference play starts with a game at home vs. Iowa, I do indeed feel this sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. 

The pick: Cornell is also 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog, while Penn State is only 1-4 ATS in its last five off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points.

10* SHOCKER SPECIAL on Cornell.

The set-up: Clemson is 13-0 and Ohio State is 12-1. If you're betting and watching and this game, then the overall story lines and cast of characters are well known to you. The strengths and weaknesses are also well known to even a casual NCAAF fan. I don't need to break down individual player matchups, because I don't think it's necessary. While both teams have been exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, both have also been unreal offensively and ultimately I think that the longer lay off will be more beneficial to each teams offense. The Tigers have averaged 54.2 PPG over their last six games and just put up 62 vs. a stingy Virginia defense in the ACC Title game. Not to be outdone though, Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the nation by averaging 48.7 PPG behind the strong play of QB Justin Fields.

The pick: Note as well that Clemson has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, while Ohio State has seen the total fly over the number in both games already this season in which it's had two weeks or more of rest in. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Clemson/OSU.

The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset, but with nothing to loe, I like Oklahoma to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Oklahoma is in its third playoff in a row and it's done it with three different QB's. This is a team which won't be intimidated in the "big moment." Jalen Hurts is a legit NFL prospect and I look for him to go down fighting. Ed Orgeron and QB Joe Burrow come into this game with an unblemished 13-0 record so far. In four of their last five games they've scored at least 46 points. But Hurts has the ability to keep this one close in my opinion. 

The pick: Oklahoma has been fantastic in this spot as wel lfor bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while LSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. Burrow has been amazing. The Tigers have a great defense as well. But the long lay off is going to cause some issues with chemistry in my opinion. I think the Sooners' overall experience in this big game pays dividends for the team here and helps in keeping this one much closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma.

The set-up: Iowa State was 7-5 and Notre Dame was 10-2. Iowa State lost a bunch of "close" games this year. QB Brock Purdy had 12 TD's and just two INT's over his final four games. 

The pick: Ian Book didn't have nearly as good a season this time around as last for the Irish, but I still give him the nod in this spot. I also believe that the Irish easily have the defense to hang with Iowa State's vaunted unit. Additionally note that Iowa State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while ND is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 opints range, including 3-1 ATS this season. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish.

8* BLOWOUT on Notre Dame.

The set-up: Outright upset? Very possible! Memphis comes in with confidence and momentum after beating Cincinnati 29-24 in the AAC Championship Game. Memphis is led by QB Brady White, who had 3,560 passing yards with a 33:9 TD:INT. The Tigers average 39.3 PPG and they won't be lacking for motivation here after going 0-4 in their last four bowl games. The Nittany Lions are led by QB Sean Clifford, who has 2,561 yards passing and a 22:6 TD:INT. Penn State only averages 30.3 PPG. 

The pick: Of importance to note in my opinion is the fact that Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Penn State is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season. The Tigers have played three ranked opponents since November and they're 3-0. I think the long lay off benefits the offense of the underdog here. That said, grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Memphis.

The set-up: The Warriors have won three straight games after upsetting the Rockets at home on X-Mas Day as double-digit underdogs, but I think they'll predictably return to mediocrity today vs. this hungry visiting side. Phoenix comes to town desperate to break a seven-game slide. 

The pick: Here is what Steve Kerr said after the X-Mas day win for the Warriors: "We're probably not going to play a bigger game than this all year," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "A national TV game against the Rockets. This game meant a lot to us." Can anyone say "letdown" spot? NOte as well that the Suns are already 4-1 ATS this year off a cover where it lost the game SU as a dog, while GS is only 2-3 ATS this season as a home dog of six points or less. I like the "hungry/desperate" team to find a way to get the job done tonight.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: These are two teams that want to actually win this game and I believe that focus and intensity will translate into offensive production on the field of play tonight. WSU is coming off a listless loss to Washington in its finale, held to just 13 points. Clearly this top 10 Cougars offense will be eager to get back on track here. Expect WSU to air it out early and often with dynamic QB Anthony Gordon today. 

The pick: The Falcons enter having won seven straight. Air Force has a top 40 offense and a top 20 defense. Donald Hammond III will have his opportunities today as well vs. a Cougars' secondary which allows nearly 290 passing yards per game. I think this has one has "track meet" written all over it.

10* play on the OVER WSU/Air Force.

The set-up: It's 8-4 USC vs. 9-3 Iowa. The Trojans are going to try and air this one out, while the Hawkeyes will try to slow it down and grind out a victory. USC averages 33.2 PPG and it allows 27.7. Iowa averages only 23.8 PPG, but it only allows 13.1. USC lost to heavy weights Notre Dame, Washington and Oregon this year and it's led by Kedon Slovis, who I think will be a difference maker today (28:9 TD:INT.) He benefits from throwing to one of the best WR's in the country in Michael Pittman Jr. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley has a 14:4 TD:INT. The Hawkeyes are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a favorite, while USC is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog. I think the long time off to prepare benefits the USC defense and I like Slovis to push the pace from start to finish. That said, grab the points.

8* play on USC.

The set-up: I think the long lay off and the Turkey over X-Mas lead to a lower-scoring goaltenders battle in these team's first game back from the break. THe Canes will be especially motivated here after dropping their final two games before the break. Overall Carolina averages 3.30 GPG and it allows 2.76. The Rangers will be equally as "hungry" for a win here after closing before the break by going 1-3-1 in their last five. NY averages 3.17 GPG and it allows 3.28. 

The pick: Note though that Carolina has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest, while NY has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of eight vs. the division this year. This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Canes/Rangers.

The set-up: OKS is 7-4 and A&M is 7-5. In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. The Cowboys will use two QB's today in Spencer Sanders and Dru Brown. OKS' defense leaves everything to be desired, but I expect this Mike Gundy led team to keep it close with its relentless attack through the air. 

The pick: Jimbo Fisher's second year at A&M has been a disappointment. Kellen Mond lacks weapons. The defense is the bright spot for the Aggies, but I think it'll have its hands full with this Cowboys "air raid" offensive style. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come down to the wire.

8* play on Oklahoma State.

The set-up: MSU became eligible after beating Rutgers and Maryland. Wake Forest ended it's regular season campaign by losing three of four, but it was competitive in each loss, including a 39-30 setback to the Orange in its finale. The Spartans are led by Brian Lewerke, who had nearly 600 yards passing over his final two games. But that was against some pretty weak competition that didn't have a whole month to plan for this game. The MSU run game is weak and I think its offense will struggle to keep pace down the stretch. 

The pick: The Deacons have a more balanced attack, led by a run game which averages 297.8 YPG. WF QB Jamie Newman is superior too in my opinion, he finished with a 23:10 TD:INT. Michigan State is also just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest and a terrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight after playing a conference game, while WF is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points.

8* play on Wake Forest.

The set-up: It's 6-6 UNC vs. 8-4 Temple. I like the team from the ACC. The Tar Heels played the much tougher schedule and are in a much tougher conference. That didn't work out well for Miami last night, but that was partly because of the fact that they through in a new QB just before the game. UNC pivot Sam Howell had 3,347 passing yards with 35 TD's and seven INT's. Overall the Tar Heels average 285 YPG through the air. 

The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo has a more pedestrian 21:12 TD:INT. The UNC run game is superior as well and I think this depth on offense will prove to be too much for Temple to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on UNC.

The set-up: Pitt fell 26-19 to Boston College at home in its regular season finale, while EMU also lost its final game, falling 34-26 to Kent State. The Panthers though come in with zero momentum as they dropped their final two games of the year, including getting blanked by Virginia Tech in their second to last game. Pittsburgh averages only 20.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 21.8. 

The pick: EMU averages 29.1 PPG and it allows 30.3. With a month off to prepare for this one though, I think that Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi can contain the Eagles' offense. The Panthers will indeed look to control the clock throughout this contest while on offense and in a scenario like this, the "under" is the correct call in my opinion. 

10* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Pitts/EMU.

The set-up: Washington returns to action here after a 121-115 road win over the Knicks. The Pistons will be eager to bounce back here though after a listless 125-109 loss at home to Philadelphia before X-Mas. Detroit also plays with revenge, as Washington has taken both previous meetings between the clubs so far this year. And while both those contests were higher-scoring affairs, I believe that this one sets up as much more of a defensive battle, as I look for the home side to run plenty of half-court sets on offense in an attempt to dicate the tempo. 

The pick: Additionally note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six following a SU victory, while Detroit has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight following consecutive home losses. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Wizards/Pistons.

The set-up: The Bulldogs went 9-3 this season and for their above average performance, they get the 6-6 Hurricanes in the Independence Bowl on Thanksgiving Day. Louisiana Tech went just 1-2 over its last three games though and I think it'll have difficulty with this team from the Power 5 Conference. Yes Louisiana Tech beat UTSA 41-27 in its finale, but in the two losses previous it scored a total of 24 points. Overall the Bulldogs average 34 PPG and allow 23.7. 

The pick: The Hurricanes lost their final 27-17 to Duke. Five of their six losses though have been by seven points or less. Overall Miami averages 27.8 PPG and it allows just 20.8. Louisiana Tech has had considerably more sucess in the Bowl Season than the Hurricanes over the last ten years, but I think the Bulldog's get overwhelmed on the defensive end from this hungry 6-6 Miami Florida team. I'm laying the points.

10* BLOWOUT on Miami Florida.

The set-up: After knocking off the Blazers in their last game in Portland, I think the Pelicans take a predictable step back here in this difficult road venue. Denver enters on a seven-game win streak, most recently holding on for a 113-111 win over the Suns. Denver has the No. 2 ranked defense in the league, holding the opposition to just 44.1 percent shooting at the Pepsi Center. Denver also plays with revenge here after it fell in New Orleans back in October. I believe the home side controls this one from start to finish and I look for the Pels to have a letdown after their latest road win. Situationally, it absolutely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten after an ATS cover in their previous outing, while Denver has seen the total go under in 11 of 16 at home already this season. This number is a tad high.

10* GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Pelicans/Nuggets.

The set-up: The Yellow Jackets come in hungry here as they've lost four of their last five over the last two weeks. Overall the Yellow Jackets average 65.6 PPG and allow 67.8. The Warriors had their two-game win streak snapped by Washington last time out. Overall Hawaii averages 71.3 PPG, while coneding 72. 

The pick: Georgia Tech though is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 following a SU loss, while Hawaii is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 tournament games. Strengh of schedule is the issue here and GT has played a much more difficult one to this point. These early numbers are skewed. Expect a decisive victory from the Power 5 Conference member today and lay the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Georgia Tech.

The set-up: Houston comes into this game riding a four-game win streak and it's just a 1/2 game behind the Nuggets for the division lead. This latest win streak includes a come from behind victory over the Spurs, followed by victories over the Clippers, Suns and Kings. Golden State has inexplicably won two in a row itself, but I believe the injury depleted home side has a hard time keeping pace with Houston's scoring depth of James Harden and Russell Westbrook on the national stage (note that Harden is 5-2 on X-Mas Day games as well.) 

The pick: Additionally note that Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. clubs with losing records, while GS is only 11-29-1 ATS in its last 41 following a SU victory. D'Angelo Russell has been decent for GS this season, but I think his lack of scoring help dooms the home side tonight. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* BEATDOWN on the Houston Rockets.

The set-up: The 7-5 BYU Cougars are in Hawaii to take on the 9-5 Warriors and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written all over it. The Rainbow Warriors were 6-2 in Aloha Stadium this year, including victories over Arizona and Oregon State. Hawaii eventually fell 31-10 to Boise State in the Championship Game, but I think that Cole McDonald and company will bounce back here with so much time off to prepare. McDonald finished with 3,642 yards and 29 TD's this season. Overall the Warriors average 33.6 PPG, while allowing 31.7. BYU won five straight before a listless 13-3 loss at SDSU. Like Hawaii though, I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will be beneficial to the offense, which averaged 39.8 PPG during the five-game win streak. Overall the Cougars average 28 points and allow 24.4 per game. 

The pick: Note as well that BYU has seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this year, while Hawaii has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four home games already this season when the total in the contest is set between 61 and 70 points. I believe the only game in town tonight will feature a lot of offense, and not much defense. Play the over.

10* play on the OVER BYU/Hawaii.

The set-up: Both teams are headed to the playoffs, but each is fighting for a better spot. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Green Bay beat Minnesota 21-16 at home and I do indeed feel that another outright victory isn't out of the question here either. Green Bay beat the Bears 21-13 last weekend and with a victory here it can wrap up the division crown. Look for veteran QB Aaron Rodgers to continue his brilliant season, so far he has 24 TD's and just two INT's. Also RB Aaron Jones had two TD's last weekend. 

The pick: The Vikes have won eight of their last ten, led by the great play of QB Kirk Cousins, who has 25 TD's and only five INT's. Also note, Minnesota is now already in the playoffs, having clinched after the Rams last outright to the 49ers yesterday. Finally note that Minnesota is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 MNF contests, while GB is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: I'm expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring goaltenders battle in this one. Columbus is 5-3-2 in its last ten. The Jackets are only ranked 20th on defense on the road and their offense is also ranked 20th away from friendly confines. The Isles are ranked tenth in the NHL in goals scored at home and they've been even better on the defensive end at home, ranked 13th. 

The pick: Note that the Jackets have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last nine road games when the total is set at 5, while NY has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think that Isles' goaltender Semyon Varlamov and CBJ's goalie Joonas Korpisalo will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER CBJ/Islanders.

The set-up: With a big X-Mas day game on the horizon, I think the visitors get caught "looking ahead." Of course, the 11-19 Pistons can't afford to look past anyone at this point. The 76ers avoided a fourth straight defeat with a win over the Wizards at home last time out, but the Pistons suffered their fourth loss in a row in a disappointing performance vs. the Bulls. Additionally note that the Pistons play with revenge here after falling 117-111 in Philadelphia earlier in the year. On paper the 76ers are the better team, but I believe the situation sets up great for the desperate/hungry home side. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support as well, as note that the visitors are only 4-7 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records, while Detroit is already a perfect 3-0 ATS off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. This one has "upset" written all over it, but I'll gladly grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons.

The set-up: Canisius has won three staright in this series, including a 68-62 victory back in March last year. The Golden Griffins are 5-5, but the Saints are just 3-5. All that said, I think the hungry home side finally bounces back here and gets some revenge in this series in a big way at home tonight to open MAAC play. Note that Canisius is only 1-4 in true road contests this season, most recently falling 82-73 at Buffalo. 

The pick: The Saints are a "different" team at home. So far they're 3-0 there this season. Siena comes in with momentum as well after besting Bucnell 81-71 last time out. Finally note that the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the Golden Griffins are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with a losing SU record. With revenge on their minds and momentum on their side, I like the Saints to dominate from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* MID-MAJOR GAME OF THE WEEK on Siena.

The set-up: Marshall finished 8-4 overall, including 2-2 in non-conference play. Its two win were over Ohio (33-31) and VMI, while it lost to Boise State (14-7) and Cincinnati (42-17.) Marshall won this bowl 38-20 last year, but I think it takes a step back here. Overall the Herd average 24.8 PPG and allow 23.1. 

The pick: UCF lost 27-24 to Cincinnati, but it finished 9-3 overall. The Knights average a whopping 43 PPG, while conceding just 22.8. Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, both over the long and short-term, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six after a win by six points or less, including only 1-2 ATS this year. Conversely, UCF has been money in the bank in this position by going 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, including 2-1 ATS this season. I think Marshall gets smoked on both sides of the ball from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on UCF.

The set-up: The Chiefs have a lot to play for, as while they've clinched the division, they're still gunning for home field advantage. The Bears are 7-7 and have fallen out of playoff contention. Is the thought of playing "spoiler" here an actual factor we can take into consideration? I don't think so. The Bears are out and now they face a non-conference power house. Yes Mitchell Trubisky has something to prove, but I don't think his slightly improved play of late is going to be enough here. 

The pick: The Chiefs have rebounded from a tough stretch and they're looking sharp on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.1 PPG, while the defense has recorded 14 INT's and 39 sacks this season. Additionally note that Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while KC is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I'm laying the points and expecting a complete lop-sided destruction.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the KC Chiefs.

The set-up: LA comes in off a win on the road in San Antonio just last night and I believe it'll be predictably "gassed" here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Thunder have been a surprise for sure this year with Chris Paul and Ja Morant leading the way, but as mentioned off the top, I expect more of a subdued pace here set by the now tired visiting side. 

The pick: Note as well that LA has already seen the total go under the number in all four games it's played in as a road underdog this season, while OKC has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this season after a win by ten points or more. The situation and the numbers both point to a lower-scoring affair here in my opinion.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Clippers/Thunder.

The set-up: The Cards destroyed the Browns 38-24 last weekend, their first victory in months. Suffice it to say, I think they'll have a more difficult time moving the ball this afternoon in the frigid Pacific Northwest. Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Kenyan Drake again here though as last weekend he rushed for 137 yards and four TD's vs. the Browns. With San Francisco's loss to Atlanta last weekend (although it managed the slim victory over the Rams), means that Seattle controls its own destiny in the NFC West. QB Russell Wilson has been the beneficiary of a strong run game this year and I expect the home side to control the ball/clock while on offense today as well. 

The pick: It works great from a situational stand point in my opinion, but also note that the Hawks have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten after scoring 30 points or more in their previous contest, while the Cards have seen the total go under in four of their last five off an upset win as an underdog. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Cards/Hawks.

The set-up: UAB is 9-4 and App State is 12-1. The Mountaineers are big favorites in this one. In fact, a little too big in my estimation. App State has an explosive offense, but UAB allows only 20.8 PPG. And that's bad new for App State' QB Zac Thomas in my opinion. Thomas finished with a sharp 26:6 TD:INT, but I believe the extra time off will throw a predictable "monkey wrench" into his chemistry.

The pick: The Blazers use two QB's in Tyler Johnson II and Dylan Hopkins and they do indeed benefit from a defense which ranks 13th in the nation vs. the pass and 14th vs. the run. Also note that UAB is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five off a loss vs. a conference rival, including 2-0 ATS this season, while App State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after covering the spread in four out of its last five games. No outright, but definitely closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on UAB.

The set-up: I'm expecting a hard-fought, but ultimatley lower-scoring game between these NFC rivals on Saturday night. The 49ers have a playoff spot locked up, but they're coming off a poor perfomance/loss at home to the Falcons. LA has its back against the wall, needing to win out after it most recently got dominated on the road by the Cowboys. The strength of LA though has not been on the offensive side of the ball this season, with QB Jared Goff taking a major step back, but rather on the defensive end where the unit has allowed 17 points or fewer in six of the last eight games. San Francisco has been unbelievable this year, winning big in New Orleans, but also looking poor at other times. The defense is banged up, but I think that Jimmy Garropolo and company won't try to push the issue here, as they look to sit back and control this one in all three phases. Situationally in my opinion, it definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: But note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in three of four vs. division opponents already this year, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight following a home loss. This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Rams/49ers UNDER.

The set-up: Washington is 7-5 and Boise State is 12-1. Head coach Chris Peterson has made it known that he'll be leaving Washington after this game and it's only fitting that he gets to try and beat his former team the Broncos. Washington topped WSU 31-13 in the Apple Cup, while Boise State got the better of Hawaii 31-10 in the MWC championship game. Washington is led by QB Jacob Eason, while Boise State is led by QB Jaylon Henderson. The Broncos allow 20.6 PPG, while the Huskies allow 20.4. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Huskies have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 3-0 ATS in all non-conference games. Conversely, this is a position in which Boise State has struggled in for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS in non-conference games this season and 0-3 ATS in its last three after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. The Huskies come from the tougher confernce and I think that Peterson will have his troops prepared to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.

8* play on Washington.

The set-up: The Hawks come in off another loss, but were competitive by covering the spread at home vs. Utah last time out. The Nets return home off a loss to the Spurs, a game in which they led for most of until the final moments when they stumbled and blew it. Atlanta's weakness is on the defensive end, but it looked a lot better vs. Utah most recently and I think it carries that momentum over here. 

The pick: Spencer Dinwiddie is doing everything he can for the Nets this year with Kyrie Irving still sidelined with injury, but note that the Nets have been disastrous in this spot for bettors, going 4-7 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, including 0-2 ATS this year. The Hawks conversely have gone a strong 9-4 ATS already this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. In a game which I see coming down to the final moments, I'm grabbin the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Hawks.

The set-up: FIU finished with a 6-6 record and finished the regular season with an OT loss to Marshall. Arkansas State finished 7-5 and closed with a loss on the road to South Alabama. Arkansas State allows 228 YPG on the ground and FIU averages 168 YPG. FIU QB James Morgan finished with 2,248 passing yards and a weak 13:3 TD:INT. Arkansas State though has a top 20 passing offense, led by freshman QB Layne Hatcher. The Panthers allow over 200 YPG rushing as well, so the Red Wolves' strong run/pass attack is going to be the difference in the end in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that FIU is a terrible 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch vs. a Red Wolves offense which averages 36.7 PPG. Lay the points.

8* play on Arkansas State.

The set-up: Buffalo's won ten games for the first time in more than 20 years and it's headed back to the playoffs. The Patriots have also already clinched. Each team though is still jockeying for better playoff positioning. The Bills' young QB Josh Allen has made significant strides since the first time he faced New England earlier in the year and I believe he has a legitimate shot at avenging that setback. Note that when they played Tom Brady the first time, they kept the hall of fame QB in check by allowing him only 150 yards on 39 attempts. The Bills have been tremendous at home, but they come in the under radar here afte rgoing 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight away from friendly confines.

The pick: New England has an 11-3 record, but Brady looks a step behind (he's thrown for less than 190 yards in three of his past four games.) The defense has looked shaky at times over the last month as well. Additionally note that the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five in revenging a close loss by seven points or less to an opponent, while NE is just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records. I'm grabbing the points.

10* BLOOD-BATH on Buffalo.

The set-up: This is a home game for the Owls, as this game is being played at FAU Stadium. SMU is enoying just its sixth ten win season in its 102 year history. The Mustangs won eight in a row before a blowout loss to Memphis, followed by a 35-28 setback to Navy. The Mustangs are averaging 43.2 PPG and allowing 31.8. However with the extended time off, I think that QB Shane Buechele's chemistry will be "off" to begin. FAU is stingy as well and it comes in on a six-game win streak after beating UAB 49-6 in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls average 2.5 takeaways per game and a +1.6 turnover margin per contest. 

The pick: Additionally note that SMU has in fact seen the total go under the number in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range, while FAU has seen the total dip under in 14 of its last 20 at home, including in five of seven this season. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

8* play on the UNDER SMU/FAU.

The set-up: Two teams that sputtered down the stretch of the regular season collide on Saturday in the Cure Bowl. The Flames are poor at stopping the run, and that's the Eagles strength. Funnily enough, Liberty's strength is its passing game, while Georgia Southern's weakness is against the pass. With a few weeks off to regroup, I think it's going to be Flames' QB Steven Calvert who shines in this one. Calvert had 3,000 passing yards, as well as a sharp 26:5 TD:INT. 

The pick: And that's bad new for an Eagles' pass defense which gave up at least 283 total yards through the air in three of their last four games. QB Shai Werts' numbers are his worst in the last three years due to significant injuries to his line as well. Finally note that Liberty is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Georgia Southern is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a home victory, including 3-1 ATS this season. I like the Flames' arial attack to be the difference in the end. That said, let's grab the points.

8* play on Liberty.

The set-up: Last year CMU was 1-11, but this year they lost to Miami Ohio 26-24 in the MAC Championship game. The Chips were 8-5 and they enter this contest with a balanced offense, ranked 40th in the country in both passing and running. SDSU was 9-3 on the year and finished behind Hawaii in the MWC West. The Aztecs only allow 12.8 PPG, but I think the unit will take a predictable step back here after the long lay off. Clearly CMU is going to be out to push the pace as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone. QB Quinten Dormady is a senior for the CHips and he had 2,148 passing yards with a sharp 14:6 TD:INT. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that CMU has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as an underdog this year, while SDSU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as a neutal field favorite of seven points or less. This number is a tad low.

10* play on CMU/SDSU OVER.

The set-up: Cal Irvine comes to Illinois Chicago with a 7-6 record. The Flames are the "hungrier" team here in my estimation after starting just 4-8. UIC returns home for the first time in three games, which I believe is going to help it tremendously. UCI though is playing its third straight away from friendly confines and I believe this works against it. UCI comes in off a dishearening 67-61 loss to UTEP in the championship game of the Sun Bowl Tournament on December 17th as well. 

The pick: UIC is fighting hard and will be in a particularly foul mood here after falling 67-66 to Illinois State last time out. Tarkus Ferguson was a bright spot in defeat with 22 points. Not as well that UIC is already 3-1 ATS this season off a road loss, while UCI is only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite. In a contest which I envision coming down to the final moments, I'm grabbing the points.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Illinois Chicago.

The set-up: I believe that the 7-5 Utah State Aggies will lay the hammer down on the 6-6 Kent State Golden Flashes. I think Kent State is just happy to be here, making only its third bowl appearance in program history. Aggies' QB Jordan Love will make his final appearance for his team today and I expect him to have a big game (most recently he had three TD's in his team's 38-25 win over New Mexico.) Note that according to Mel Kiper, Love is the seventh ranked QB going into the draft this summer. The Golden Flashes have QB Dustin Crum under center and he threw for 2,333 yards and 18 TD's on the year, but I believe he'll have a hard time keeping up to the Aggie's high-tempo pace with a lack of a run game. 

The pick: Addtionlly note that the Golden Flashes are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a three game SU unbeaten streak, while the Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. I'm laying the points and expecting a complete blowout.

8* play on Utah State.

The set-up: The Devils have won two in a row, while the Capitals have gone 2-2 in their last four. Washington should be in a particularly foul mood here though after a 3-0 loss to Columbus in which it outshot the Jackets 30-21. Note that it was the first time all year the Capitals had been shutout and I believe they take out their frustrations on the Devils today. Overall the Capitals average 3.48 GPG and allow 2.80. 

The pick: Clearly the Devils won't be going down without a fight as they look to build momentum. Overall New Jersey averages only 2.39 GPG, while allowing 3.39. Six of these team's last eight in this series have flown above the posted number and all signs point to another shootout here in my opinion.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Capitals/Devils.

The set-up: I think the Kings come in under the radar here and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Sacramento is just 12-15 on the year, but it's looked a lot better despite a loss to Charlotte last time out. Overall the Kings average 104.7 PPG and concede 107. The Pacers are 19-9 on the year and 12-3 at home. Overall the Pacers average 109.2 PPG and concede 104.2. 

The pick: The Kings can't afford to look past anyone, but would anyone fault Indiana "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent todayw tih a game at Milwaukee on Sunday, followed by a game at home vs. Toronto on the 23rd (in fact, key players could be rested for the home side here.) This one has "upset" written all over it in my opinion, but I'm grabbing the points in the end.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Sacramento Kings.