It is a battle of two offensive juggernauts when the Dodgers, leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, face the home-town Rangers who aren't far behind at .801.  The Dodgers blew out Texas in the late innings to win game one of the series. The Rangers were 6-0 previous to that game, sweeping the Rays while holding them to just six runs in the series.  The Dodgers are 8-2 L10 games.  Rookie Bobby Miller (3-1, 5.02 ERA/L7 games) starts for LA.  He has had some solid if short starts this season, but tends to struggle after the fourth inning with an ERA of 11.57 in the fifth.  He will face Dane Dunning who has been a pillar of consistency, allowing two or less runs in five of his last six appearances, while averaging six innings per start.  Dunning is 5-0 at home.
The Rangers are a very good home team, and a good bet to rebound after a loss.  Neither bullpen is especially strong. I like Dunning and the Rangers to come out on top today as the pride of Texas take umbrage over a lopsided loss. Take the underdog to win or at least keep this one close.

It is hard to find anything positive about the A's at the moment, other than Friday's starter, lefty J.P. Sears.  He delivers quality starts more often than not and has given up just 4 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts, holding opponents to a very low ERA of .169 in July. Sears is better at home.  The last three of his starts have been decided by one run.  He'll face one of the premier left handers in the Astros' Valdez.  He has struggled a little in his last three games, allowing 11 runs over 18 innings.  In spite of 13 K's last time out he still allowed 5 runs over six innings.  Mind you, he faces the A's and not the Angels on Friday. Valdez hasn't pitched as well on the road this year.   The Astros have the superior bullpen but it hasn't been as sharp lately. About all that  can be said about Oakland's relievers, is that they will be well-rested after Thursday's game.
The 5-5 Astros are not hitting especially well at the moment (.236 BA/.668 OPS L2weeks), really not much better than the A's in the same time frame.  Both starters are likely to last at least 5 innings. Based on Sears' recent performances, I expect a low scoring game, and like the A's chances to keep this game close early. Take the Athletics to lead or stay close after the first five innings, and hang on to cover. A's +1 1/2

The Rays are just 3-12 in July.  While still favored against the Orioles today, there are compelling reasons to back Baltimore.  The Rays just aren't generating offense lately; 23rd in OPS and 26th in RBIs over the last two weeks.  Add in their inability to respond after a loss this year, where they are just 20-19.  Meanwhile the Orioles are hitting everything in sight, and are now first in RBIs and fourth in OPS L15 days.  Efflin has looked solid for the Rays this year, but he is off a poor start last time out, giving up 5 runs over 3 innings.  He will face Bradish who has been white hot lately.  He hasn't given up more than 3 runs in a game since the end of May and allowed only 1 run in his last 3 starts.  He beat Glasnow and the Rays in June.
The Orioles are a fine road team this year, and are getting more than acceptable relief pitching.  The Rays' vaunted bullpen has been a little off lately.
I am on the underdog today.  Jump on the young and impressive Orioles, now challenging for first in their division, to kick the Rays while they are down.  Take the Orioles on the money line.

Olympic champion Canada has a target on its back and is struggling with conflict within their soccer federation at home.  But this team with some legendary veterans and outstanding rising stars has fared well in the lead up to this.  Coach Priestman commitment to defense,  has world class defenders and a goalkeeper that can earn clean sheets but also has ageless striker and all-time international goal scoring leader Sinclair.  They are capable of shutting down anyone.   They also have a rising star in midfielder Awujo who is capable of controlling the flow of play.   They beat Nigeria 2-0 in a friendly and then tied them using most of their bench.  They also beat Australia in two friendlies in Australia.  In the lead up they won their group in CONCACAF and then lost to world number one ranked USA in the final.  If they can overcome the turmoil, they should be the team to beat in this group.

Nigeria has had their own turmoil, as they lost two games in the Africa Cup (which used to be something they dominated) and have had battles with their own federation over unpaid salaries and political selection pressures on the coach.  They have a star striker in Oshoala who is fresh off a Champions League win with Barcelona.  Being ranked 40th in the FIFA is no match for 7th ranked Canada and they are widely predicted to exit the group stage.

The A's won at home on Wednesday, but that is all the winning they've done at 1-9. The Astros haven't been that much better at 5-5, but they are on a 6-0 run vs Oakland this year.  They haven't been getting their usual fine pitching lately, but you can't blame it on Thursday's starter, right hander Ty Frances.  The Late bloomer has been a steady presence in the Astros rotation.  He has allowed 3 ER or fewer and generally pitched into the 6th since the beginning of June.  He has been especially sharp in away games. The Astros haven't given France much run support but they will have their chances against lefty A's rookie Hogan Harris. Harris is an occasional starter/long reliever who has had poor results in his last three games, giving up more than a run an inning.  The A's bullpen is a mess this year and even with the Astro's pen underachieving lately, I still favor the Astros in the later innings.
Houston is a good road team and tough on left handed pitching this season.  The A's are  hitting right handers at just a .216 clip and are a very poor road team.
The Astros are heavily favored, but a more than acceptable bet on the run line.  Take Houston - 1 1/2.

Host New Zealand has qualified for the last 4 World Cups.  They haven’t advanced out of the group stage or even scored a goal.  But this World Cup will be different right?  Nope.  After Klinkova was appointed coach they won only one of their first 14 and were outscored 35-5.   As host , not having to qualify has led them to a most recent record of friendlies of 1-7-1.  They have had five significant injuries in the past year but all have recently returned.  It’s doubtful that they have returned to top form.  They have had the worst sustained stretch of any team in the field.

Norway on the other hand has been a traditional powerhouse in women’s football.  Recently they were humbled though by England 8-0 in the Euros.  Norway legend Riise took over the reigns as coach and has transformed their approach with a defensively stable 4-3-3 or 5-4-1.  This led to beating the finalist from the last World Cup, Netherlands 2-0 in November and drawing Sweden and France earlier this year.  They are the Group A favorite and with superstar Hegerberg and rising star Hansen should dominate the struggling New Zealand side even though they are the hosts.  Lay the points and take the Norwegian side.

After Toronto’s lates experiment with Manoah in the series opener against San Diego, the Blue Jays are back to basics with probable starter Berrios.  He has been solid all year but especially in his latest three starts where his ERA and WHIP have sparkled at 2.45 and 0.82 respectively ( and a miniscule 0.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for July).  In contrast probable starter for the Padres is veteran Darvish who has been to war against the Blue Jays back in 2011-16 but lately has struggled with a 4.24 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Blue Jays bats have dominated over the last 7 days with the top avg. in the majors and the 8th OPS.  Over the same time period the Padres have an impressive 9th best OPS but a mediocre 19th best average.  Against right handers the Jays are 6th in avg and 9th in OPS while the Padres are much weaker being 26th and 18th respectively.

The Blue Jays only blemish over their last five games was that clunker by Manoah.  They are 19-7 in inter-league games, 26-18 at home and 44-33 vs. RH starters.  By the same token the Padres are 2-3 over their last five (which includes that win against Manoah), 12-11 in inter-league games, 19-27 on the road and 26-33 vs RH starters.  With Berrios doing his thing you should take the Jays to win game two of this series.

Two hot teams and two solid probable starting pitchers will be tested to different degrees.  Southpaw Sanchez has been outstanding for the Phillies since he joined the rotation after his recall June 17th.  He has a stellar 2.77 Era in 5 starts with only 8 ERs in 26 IP.  His WHIP in June was 1.00 and a tiny 0.73 in July.  He will be throwing against a Brewers squad that has the 29th avg and 26th OPS in the majors against lefties.  This is certainly a chance for Sanchez to extend his solid run of late. 

Rea has been solid for the Brewers but his July ERA and WHIP have begun to creep up to 5.56 and 1.24 respectively.  Rea will be going up against Phillies’ batters that have been red hot in July.  They have the 5th best avg. and OPS in the majors for this month. He has only gone past 6 innings twice this year so his bullpen will be relied on.  The available relievers for this game are solid but the bullpen staff has been just OK on the road with a 4.29 ERA. 

If Sanchez needs help the Phillies bullpen has been solid at home with a 2.99 ERA.

This should be a chance for the Phillies bats to continue their July success while it doesn’t look promising for the Brewers against this solid lefthanded starter.  Take the Phillies on the Run Line.

Another pick with two hot teams.  Probable pitcher Grove for the Dodgers has had a very tough year with an injury, a rehab assignment and a total of four recalls from the minors.  He just recently got his ERA below 7.00 for the season and although his WHIP has been falling it is still 1.40 so far for July. 

Probable starter Wells for the Orioles has been a bright light for them and has been the picture of consistency with all 7 of his most recent starts having 2 ERs in each.  He does his part day in and day out.  In terms of available bullpen help, the Dodgers have been better than the Orioles of late although the Orioles still hold the edge over the whole season. 

These are two elite teams at the plate over the last 15 days.  The Dodgers are 2nd in OPS and 12th in avg in the majors, while the Orioles are 3rd in OPS and 4th in avg.  The Dodgers are only 22-20 against teams with a winning record while the Orioles are 30-19.  The clincher for me was the comparison of each team’s recent streak.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 against weaker opposition (Mets, Angels and Pirates).  The Orioles have won eight straight vs. much stronger teams (Marlins, Twins and Yankees) and their average margin of victory is 5 runs.  This last stat was the clincher for me that convinced me to recommend you lay the points and go with the Orioles.

Both the Phillies and the Brewers have been hot lately.  But probable pitcher Teheran has been hit hard in his last two starts (6 and 7 earned runs against) and by at least three of the current Phillies’ batters .  In his last 47 AB, Harper alone has 9 HR, 21 RBI, 12 BB and a .404 avg against Teheran.  Harper is not the MVP he once was but he is having a fine year as he is 2nd on the Phillies in avg. and tops in OPS. 

Probable starter Nola for the Phillies has won his last two starts vs. Teheran and is 5-1 in his last 10 starts vs. Milwaukee.  Nola is also 9th in the majors with 120 SO.

Both bullpens have been solid with the Brewers being a little stronger, but the damage should be done before the Brewers’ relievers can step in.  Lay the points and take the Phillies. 

The Marlins were swept by the Orioles, but are a good bet for a bounce back against the Cardinals on Monday.  They are .500 on the road, but 13-6 when Luzardo is on the mound  The left hander has been dominant since mid-June.  He has thrown 6 innings in all three of his last starts, with a pair of shutouts and a two run effort to show.  He gets a ton of strikeouts and shut out the Cards just two weeks ago. Mikolas has had his struggles this year, including a 6.07 ERA in June.  He has looked much better in his last two outings with  seven inning and  rain-delayed three inning shutouts.  Mikolas is pitching on short rest which doesn't always bode well for a starter.  The Cards are 2-1 since the break, but struggle in home games (18-26) and against left handers (9-13) this year.  They are top five in offense (.296 BA, .853 OPS) last 15 days, but their bullpen is not doing them any favors, and they are very poor (17-30) when playing over .500 teams.  The  no-hit  Marlins are hitting for more average and power than usual lately, and have the better bullpen. I like Luzardo and the Marlins' chances.  Play Miami, a slight underdog, to win.

The Twins have racked up a pair of victories in their road series vs Oakland.  They will send out Joe Ryan for the sweep today. Unfortunately Ryan has been very uneven lately, with three of his last five starts of the outright poor variety.  In spit of ten Ks in his last appearance, he gave up five runs in four+ innings. The A's send out young lefty JP Sears, who is much better than his record would suggest.  He has pitched well in his last seven starts with a 3.38 ERA, including twelve+ innings of one run ball in his last two appearances.
The Twins problems this year are road games, where they are three games under .500, and left-handed pitching (.221 BA).  While the A's bullpen has struggled to a 6.04 ERA L10 games, the Twins' pen hasn't been all that much better at 4.91.  The A's have one of the poorest offenses in the league, but if there is any hope for optimism, it is that they have managed eleven runs against the Twins staff in this series.
Seven of ten of Sears last starts have been either wins or decided by one run. With Ryan struggling of late, I like the A's to keep this game close.  Take the A's on the run line today.

The Royals squandered a pair of fine starting pitching performances on Saturday, losing both sides of a double header in the late innings.  Singer will start for KC.  His last two starts typify his season.  He had probably his best performance against the Dodgers 2 starts ago, allowing just a run over 7 innings pitched, but followed up with a 6 run 5 inning appearance against the Guardians. With more poor starts than quality ones, you really don't know what you will get from him.  Singer has struggled in the early innings and in day games.  Whether he pitches well or poorly, the Royals pen is not dependable, allowing 7 runs from the 7th on in Saturday's double header.  The Rays' pen allowed 0 runs in the same time frame on Saturday.
Zach Efflin starts for Tampa. The Rays signed Efflin long term this season, and it has certainly paid off.  He has allowed just 2+ runs on average and 6+ innings per start in his last 5 starts. Efflin beat the Royals in June, allowing 3 runs over 6 innings, including a rare pair of HRs, the only ones he gave up in June.  The Rays are tough on right-handers, and while the offense ran into some trouble before the break, they appear to be on the mend now. The Royals struggle at home, against right handers, and have been one of the very poorest offenses in baseball this year.  Take the Rays to win on the run line again. 

The 4-1 Giants beat the Pirates in their road opener on Friday.  They will face the Pirates again who are just 2-7 in July.  Neither team is hitting well; they are 26th and 27th in OPS over the last two weeks.  Just back from the All-Star Game, SF right-hander Cobb has been pitching well, giving up just 4 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. Cobb has great control, will give up hits, but seldom a long ball.  Pirates send out Oviedo, who has had some solid starts this year but hasn't shone lately.  After a 7 inning, 1 run outing, he was tagged for 13 runs in 11+ innings in his last two starts. Neither team's bullpen has shown well lately, and we will likely see more of Cobb than Oviedo if he continues to struggle.  The Giants haven't been getting many innings from their starters so the All-Star break is just what the pen needed.   The Giants are a good road team, hit right-handed pitching much better than the Pirates, and while the bats have been quiet lately, they are still 13th for the season in OPS.  I like their chances to break out on offense, and win Game Two on the road.

The points offered in the Saturday game between the Bombers and the RedBlacks are the largest for a Bombers’ game since October 2022 when they were playing the hapless Elks.  It seems like a lot until you look at the state of the RedBlacks’ offence.  They are down to their 4th string QB who has never started a CFL game.  In relief last week he threw 2 INTs on a team that already  leads the CFL with 8 INTs given up.  He is up against a Bomber D-line that is 2nd in the CFL in sacks and has the 2nd best rushing defence in the league.  Given that the RedBlacks depend on their running game (3rd best in the CFL), all the Bombers need to do is fill the box to stuff the run and sit back while their D-line harries new QB Crumb and feast on his inexperienced attempts.  The points on offer for this game would need to be well into double digits to make this viable to go against the Bombers.  

Don’t forget, the RedBlacks are last in the league in all four major passing categories (average gain/pass, passing TDs, 30+yards passing plays, passing efficiency).  This is not going to miraculously improve in this game.  Although the RedBlacks “D” has been respectable this season, they won’t be able to hold down the fort when they are on the field for most of the game.  In the above-mentioned passing categories, the Bombers are 4th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st and in rushing yards/game they are 1st.  It should prove to be a long night for the RedBlacks and no problem for you to lay the points and pick the Bombers.

The Rays were on a very rare 1-7 plod before the break, getting short and poor outings from their starters, taxing their overworked bullpen. Add to that, an offense that scored just 1 run in 4 of 6 of their last games.  The Break couldn't have come at a better time.   The Royals are among the cellar dwellers in offense, overall pitching and bullpen results and a lamentable 13-31 at home.  Just what the doctor ordered for the Rays to step out of their funk.  Glasnow starts for Tampa.  He last faced the Royals in July, holding them to a single run with 12 strikeouts.  He will face Royals rookie right-hander Marsh, who has just 2 starts under his belt, allowing 8 runs in 9 innings. The Rays are not the team you want to face for that critical third start. 

Tampa is a heavy favorite, even on the run line, but still a worthwhile bet.  Look for a HUGE game from Glasnow and the Rays and pay the points.

The Red Sox were 7-1 in early July.  Let's see if they can keep it going against the Cubs on Friday.  Young right-hander Bello has had an outstanding May and June, throwing for distance (7 innings on average L5 starts) and allowing 2 or less in 5 straight games.  No surprise, he is even better away from Fenway. He'll face Cubs righty Hendricks, who has had a 3.86 ERA in the 9 starts since returning from the IL.  He gave up 10 hits against the Yankees in his last start, but held the opposition to just 10 runs in the previous 6 starts.  Both pens will be well rested and are pretty evenly matched for the season.  The Sox have the edge in offense at the moment, are 3rd in OPS L15 games, with a very healthy 6.0/3.9 runs for/against.  The Cubs will be missing Swanson, and are hitting just .237/.667 in their last 15 games.  The Sox have some hot bats this season but no Cub has stepped up.

Bello has been my go-to starter lately. Nothing wrong with Kendricks, but  the Sox have a real edge on offense and hit right handed pitching well.  Take Boston to win on the road.

The Rangers stumbled to 3-7 over their last 10 games before the break.  They are still Top 6 in OPS over the last 2 weeks but are 27th in pitching over the same stretch.  Rangers' righty Jon Gray has lost three straight, and 3 of his last 4 starts have been of the poor variety.  He was hit very hard (.360 BA) by the Red Sox in his last start.  He is up against a very fine right hander in Cleveland's Civale, who has averaged 6+ innings pitched and given up 7 runs total in his last 4 starts.  He has an 0.69 ERA with 0 walks in 2 starts in July.  He will likely pitch longer than Gray and the Guardians have the better bullpen, but everyone's pen should be rested and ready to go.  Cleveland has been hitting much better, for average at least.  They are 6-3 in July, 8th in BA over the last two weeks.  I like the Guardians chances on Friday.  While Texas is power hitting side, it remains to be seen if they will continue to struggle.  As good as they have been this year, they are just .500 as a home favorite.  Take the Guardians, behind Civale's pitching to keep this one close.  Take Cleveland on the Run line at +1 1/2.

The Argos and the Als are early season favs in the Eastern Conference.  Argos are missing LT Cage and MLB Williams and LB Muamba.  But their defence has been one of the top without those two LBs and with a rotating cast of DLs.  Heninger is the only major absentee for the Als on the DL as top DB Evans is slated to return.  The major problem for the Als is their O-line, healthy or not, just can’t seem to get the job done for the rushing game.  The Als were last of all the teams that played last week, for rushing performance.  This week they face an Argos “D” that is first in the CFL in run yards against, average run yards against and rush TDs.  Given that the Als have also surrendered the most sacks in the CFL on QB Fajardo they will be in a tough place.  With no threat of a run game, the Argos will be able to pin their ears back and go for it when Fajardo will be having to pass so often. 

On the offensive side of the ball, except for the Als' week run game the two teams are a saw off.

Coach Dinwiddie of the Argos has his team 5-2 when coming off a bye week.  The Argos were 2-1 in the series against the Als last season (losing only a mean nothing game in the last week of the season).

The Argos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against Eastern Conference opposition.  The Als are in tough so lay the points and go with the Argos.

By almost every metric these are the two worst defences in the CFL.  TiCats have the worst average points and TDs allowed.  The Elks have the worst opposition average net yards allowed, 1st downs allowed and average yards/play.  In most of the above listed categories the other team is 2nd worst.  There are some differences though that could be telling.  While the TiCats have the 2nd worst average passing yards allowed, the Elks have the 3rd best.  And the Elks have the second highest number of interceptions so far this year (2nd only to the Argos after their ridiculous 6 INTs against the Lions)  while the TiCats have the 2nd least interceptions in the CFL.

Last week the TiCats squeaked out a win over the RedBlacks and their 4th string QB while the Elks lost a heartbreaker by one point to the 3-1 Roughriders in a game they dominated in many facets and that they should have won.  Hamilton only made 43% of their 2nd conversions while the Elks made 57% of theirs.  Although the TiCats signed star running back Butler from the Lions this offseason, the Elks with Brown have had the superior running game this year and QB Cornelius has proven effective running the football this season. 

Both O-lines are banged up with Hamilton still missing star LT Figueroa and coming off only 5 days rest.  The Elks have had 6 days rest and are playing at home.  This should be the game the Elks break their long home losing streak and pull off the straight up w

The Lions and the Als both had their offences humbled last week.  Given that these two teams possess the top two defenses by the numbers, this could be a tough week.  They are 1st and 2nd in terms of points allowed by the opposition offence, net offence allowed/game, passing yards allowed/game, and the opposition’s passing efficiency.  The Als also are second in the league in interceptions which after throwing 6 picks last week will not be welcome news for Lions’ QB Adams.  BC does have the highest average passing yardage/game and passing TDs but Montreal counters with the highest passing efficiency rating and average gain/pass. 

So where do the opportunities exist in this standoff.  First of all BC’s WR Whitehead returns to action, making Sunday’s game the first all season that will feature him with Hatcher and Ryhmes (last season’s only three 1000 receivers on one team).  Second, the Als will be missing two starting DBs, Evans and Lyon, so that will reduce QB Adams’ fear of picks.  Evans has been especially effective as he is tied for the league lead in interceptions (BC will be missing one Starting DB).  But third and most tellingly, the Als have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the CFL this year.  The Lions’ defense has made more sacks than any other CFL team.  That in tandem with the Als’ weak running game should spell a long night for QB Fajardo. 

Historically the Als have not fared well in Vancouver as they have only two wins since 2000.  It doesn’t look like the Als will break that string of defeats in Week 5 either.  Pick the Lions and lay the points.

A pair of 4-6 teams meet up for the tie-breaker when the White Sox' RH Giolito squares off with Cards' lefty Steve Matz.  Giolito has been a bright spot in the Sox' rotation, consistently delivering 6 or more innings on average.  He had an ERA of 2.32 in June, and held the Jays to just 4 hits over 6 innings his last time out.  Matz is a different story.  He has been used in long relief with good success (1.64 ERA in June) after struggling as a starter this year, although he gave up a pair of runs in 2+ innings in his last appearance.  As a starter, he was hit very hard, especially in the first inning (10+ ERA).  He has also struggled in away games.  I don't expect many innings from Matz today and there-in lies the problem.  In spite of their strong relief effort yesterday, the Cards' pen has struggled on average, with an ugly 7.71 ERA over their last ten games. not that the Sox relievers are great, but Giolito should give them respectable length, seeing limited Chicago bullpen time.

Statistically St. Louis has the better offense, but the Sox have been hitting left-handed pitchers very well in their last ten games.  Look for them to take a lead early and hold it for the win today.

The Rangers and Nats split the first two games of their Washington interleague series, but I like the Rangers chances in the tie breaker on Sunday.  Rangers' right hander Dunning (8-1, 2.69 ERA) has been sharp and consistent since day one.  He gave up just five runs in June.  In his last three starts he has averaged seven innings pitched with a 2.08 ERA.  He will face aging and long suffering lefty Patrick Corbin (5-10, 6.88 ERA).  He is a workhorse for innings and can have an occasional quality start.  Corbin shut out the Mariners over five innings, but sandwiched  that start with a pair of very rough innings. The rough starts are unfortunately more of the norm; he was hit at a .322 clip in June.
The Rangers are slumping, but hitting has not been the cause.  They are 2nd in the league in OPS/L15 games and love hitting lefties (298 BA, .847 OPS) this season. The Nationals are averaging just 3.3 runs scored while giving up 7.9 over their last seven games.  The Rangers pen is no great shakes, but the Nats' is even worse.  Dunning and the Rangers are a very large favorite, but a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take the Rangers to walk away with this one.

The 7-0 Mets are starting to fulfill their potential in all categories including starting and relief pitching.  This includes lefty Peterson, who has pitched well in his two games back from an extended visit to the minors.  While not pitching past the fifth, he has allowed just a single run over ten innings in those two appearances.  While the jury is still out, it appears he has re-found some of last year's form.  He'll face another left hander, Blake Snell, who is 4-1 with an ERA of 0.64 in his last seven games, with two shutouts in his last three starts.  
The Mets' bats, lead by Lindor and Pham are leading the league in slugging and OPS over the last seven games. The Padres are also hitting well, putting up 6.9 runs per game over their last seven games.  The bullpens could be the difference today. With the length the Mets have been getting from their other starters, the pen is well rested and very sharp, with a minuscule ERA of 1.25 L3 games.  Not so the Padres, whose bullpen has a hefty 7.88 ERA L10 games.
We saw the Padres lose badly to the Pirates in spite of 6 innings of 2 run pitching in Snell's second-last start.  Look for the Padres to lead early based on Snell's fine pitching, but I do like the Mets to gain back ground in the later innings and keep this game close.  Take NY on the run line at +1 1/2.

For Ottawa there is good news and bad news and then some sort of good news.  Ottawa got their first win in week 4 and then their winning QB turned out to have a torn ACL and is now out for the season.  The sort of good news is that star QB Masoli is back after a year off from a broken leg.  Great to have him back, but welcome to the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the CFL.  As the rest of the league is beginning to get enough reps on offence to shake off the rust and begin to string some plays into drives and hopefully into points, Masoli will be starting at square one.  It won’t be pretty.  His star favorite receiver from last year, Ellingsen, is still out and this year’s top recruit Evans is still out too.

Luckily for him his “D” has been solid this year with the third best results in the league for yards allowed and points allowed by their opponent’s offence.  They should be able to contain Hamilton’s offence, what with two starters on the O-line (including the off-season’s biggest signing LT Figueroa)

Hamilton has their own problems with top signing QB, Levi-Mitchell, on the shelf.  Backup Shiltz has slowly improved, with his best outing in week 4, but although they lead the league in red zone trips they have the third worst points for number in the league.

What we have here is a perfect storm for a low total.  They are the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in offense yards/game, last and 2nd to last big plays (20+ yds rush play; 30+ yds pass play) and major questions with unproven receivers on both sides. 

Put that together with under being 5-2 in both their last 7 in Hamilton and against each other and you have a pretty strong case.

Another interesting stat is that by the end of week 4, 66% of games have been under and to start week 5 both games have been under.  Going for the under with these two sputtering teams is a good call for this one.

The Jays have won four straight games, thumping the Tigers on Friday.  Detroit will try and even the series, sending out right hander Matt Manning.  With just  two starts under his belt since a long stay on the IL, Manning has given up 6 runs in 10+ innings since returning.  The Tigers will need innings from him on Saturday; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.75 ERA/L10 games.  Gausman starts for the Jays.  The All-Star has pitched well this season with very infrequent poor starts.  He had a 2.97 ERA in June, putting up 50 K's and allowed just 2 runs in his last start.  The Jays have been getting reasonable success from the pen of late.

The Jays have won four straight games, are top ten in slugging over the last 10 games, and are starting to get offense from their big bats, especially Bichette and Guerrero. They are tough on righ t handed pitching.  The Tigers are still scuffling down in the basement at 27th in OPS/ L10 and 28th against right handers this season.  I am wagering on the favored Jays today.  Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2.

Two solid starters, both just seven starts in from an IL return, square up in Game two of the KC/Cleveland series.  Royals' lefty Lynch has allowed just four runs over 18 innings in his last three starts, including a pair of rare Royals wins. It is a small sample size but Lynch has been very strong (1.89 ERA) on the road to date.  Guardians' right hander Civale has given up two or less runs in five of his last six starts.  He held the Cubs to just three hits over six innings last time out. The Royals' offense just isn't getting the job done, managing just 8 runs in their last 4 games.  Cleveland does not hit left handers very well, managing just.234 BA, with very few home runs to date.
With just 7 starts each so far, Friday's pitchers are just hitting their stride(s) at this point. Both starters will very likely pitch effectively for a least five innings.  While the Guardians' bullpen is dependable, KC's is a different story, however Lynch has won two of his last three starts, and offers solid start length. I'll hold my breath re: the Royals' relievers, but I am wagering on the under on Friday.

The 1st place Braves and Rays don't face each other very often.  So what have these two teams done lately?  Atlanta is 9-1, and  putting up very impressive numbers with the bats. The 0-5 Rays are in a bit of a slump, managing just 6 runs in their last three games.  Comparing runs for and against, the Braves are a formidable 7.0/2.3 L7 while Tampa Bay is barely breaking even at 5.1/4.9.  Charlie Mortlon starts for Atlanta.  He has 3 wins in his last 3 starts, shutting out the Marlins last time out.  He has been better on the road this season, and while he won't give you much more than 5 innings, he has been a consistent presence in the rotation this year.  Rays' right hander Glasnow (4.50 ERA, 2-2) has pitched relatively well since his return, regularly pitching into the 6th.  He has a ton of strikeouts (23 L2 games) but does give up the long ball.  The Rays have been especially dependent on their bullpen of late, averaging more than 4 innings of use a game but the Braves pen is better rested and for effective lately.

The Braves are a formidable team on the road, and an unlikely spot for the slumping Rays to turn things around.  Take Atlanta to steal this game on the road.

The Elks can’t catch a break.  Still winless, they are coming off of 3 games in 11 days and a short week to prepare for their second road game in a row.  Their O-line is still in a state of chaos with two more injuries, as QB Cornelius will return after losing his starters' role for last week. Consequently, they have allowed the most sacks in the CFL. The Elks are also last in offensive points and net yards in the CFL. 

To make matters worse their defense is last in total points allowed, last in rush yards allowed and they have allowed the most big plays(20+yds. rush, 30+ yds pass) of any “D” in the league.  They are not in a good place in so many ways.  Their pass “D” is a little more respectable but they are going against the 2nd top passer in the league in QB Harris.

The Riders also have injury problems on their O-line but they at least are coming off a bye week.  Two starters on the O-line are out and one more is questionable.  Even so they still have the 3rd most productive ground game in the CFL with the dynamic duo of Hickson and Morrow.  Given the Elks weak pass rush 9last in the league) and rush defence the Riders shouldn’t be troubled.

As if the Elks don’t have enough problems they also have discipline problems as they have the 2nd most penalty yards against while the Riders have the 2nd least.

All of this points to a Riders win and covering the spread.

The Guardians took two of three from the Royals in KC at the end of June, outscoring them 19-6.  In their home series opener, they'll send out their impressive rookie Bibee who has certainly been trending in the right direction in his last three games, allowing three runs, then one, then finishing with a shutout, pitching five or more innings in each start.  The Guardians' bullpen is generally very solid, but especially so at home this year.  Their 2.18 ERA is less than half the Royals relievers' road ERA.  The rookie will face the Royals' Lyles (1-11, 6.68 ERA).  Lyles improved in June, finishing with a 5.40 ERA.  He gave up four and three runs in his last two starts, but as his record would suggest, he doesn't get a ton of run or relief support.  He has a very poor road ERA of 8.02 this year.

The 3-7 Royals were just swept by the Twins, are second last in OPS over the last two weeks, and are 12-30 in road games this season.  The Guardians are hitting 40 points higher for average and 70 points higher in OPS over the last two weeks.  Cleveland is a heavy favorite, but a very strong option on the run line.  Take the Guardians at -1.5.

Soroka for the Braves and Quantrill for the Guardians are both just recently back in the majors.  Neither has settled in well yet.  Soroka’s last three starts have resulted in a 6.89 ERA.  Quantrill has been even worse in his last 3, losing them all and getting shelled to the tune of a 15.44 ERA.  His last one, which was his first after his rehab assignment, he lasted 3.1 innings and was shelled for 6 runs.

Chances are both managers will go to their bullpen fairly early which will be tough as they played 10 innings Tuesday night.  The Braves bullpen has had 1.99 ERA in its last 3 and 2.88 ERA in its last 10.  The Guardians (who have a good bullpen) have had a 4.88 ERA in their last 3 and 3.96 in their last 10 so the edge goes to the Braves in this one.

The Braves bats though have been tops in the majors the last 15 days with the #1 OPS and #2 avg while the Guardians have been in the bottom third of the majors for OPS (9th in avg.).

This season the Braves have been 27-12 on the road, 13-3 as a road fav, 7-1 in their last 8 road games and 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. RHP.  The Guardians have been a modest 20-20 at home this season.  This all adds up to the Braves having no problem covering the spread.

Probable starter Walker has been on fire for the Phillies lately with 5 straight wins with 1 or less earned runs in each outing.  His June ERA and WHIP were 1.50 and 0.89 respectively.  Even without all the other supporting evidence he would be a great pick in this game.  It looks like the Rays will have a bullpen game with Littell starting his second game of the year.  His ERA and WHIP are respectable  (3.63 and 1.07 respectively) but the rest of his bullpen does not compare to the Phillies bullpen over the last 3 games.  The Phillies have a miniscule 1.57 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over that span while the Rays are 3.63 and 1.07 over the same span.

Both teams are hitting in the top third of the majors with the Phillies a few places above the Rays over the last 15 days. 

Some other startling stats are the Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. RHP starters on the road, 12-1 in their last 13 road games (including a win over the Rays on Tuesday night) and 20-7 in their last 27 overall.  The Rays are in a bit of a skid lately as they are a mediocre 5-5 in their last 10 and have lost 3 in a row.  Not sure why the Phillies are the underdog in this but I won’t complain.  Jump on this pick quick and take the Phillies on the money line.

Both probable pitchers have run hot and cold lately.  But Davies of the D-backs just pitched 7 shutout innings, while Senga has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last two starts. 

Both teams have been middle of the pack in hitting over the last 15 days.  But in terms of runs neither have produced much.  In their last 7 games the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs/9 for and the D-backs have averaged 3.9 runs/9 for.  Both those are under the expected line of 9.  On top of that the Mets have only allowed 3.1 runs/9 against while the D-backs have only allowed 3.3 runs/9 against.  All of these numbers add up to a low scoring affair.

In Senga’s last 5 starts on grass the under is 5-0 and his last 4 on the road have the unders at 4-0.  The D-backs are under in all 5 of their last 5 games and they have the unders at 5-0 in their last 5 on grass.  It should all go together to get you under the wire with a safe play on the under.

Probable starter, 41 year old Wainwright for the Cards has been looking like his nickname (Uncle Charlie) out there lately.  In his last 3 starts he has averaged 3.7 IP, 1.3 SO and 5.3 earned runs against.  In June his ERA and WHIP ballooned to 9.00 and 2.23 respectively.  Marlins’ Luzardo’s June ERA and WHIP of 0.93 and .673 respectively are in sharp contrast to Wainwright’s numbers.  Those are pretty extreme numbers at either end of the continuum for both pitchers.  This could be the end of the road for Wainwright. 

With Wainwright getting pulled so early lately, that is a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has struggled to a n 8.27 ERA in its last 5 games.  The Marlins’ bullpen has been better as of late and so should be able to carry Lazardo’s start across the finish line if needs be. 

Both teams have been in the top ¼ of the majors in hitting stats lately but clearly the Cards will have a tougher go against Luzardo than the Marlins will against Wainwright.  The Marlins should easily cover the spread on this one.

It is only week 4 and already we have a big game between the last two remaining undefeated teams.  Some pundits are calling it a pick ‘em match up.  I disagree strongly.  This means they will bail out and offer an over/under pick.  But there is a clear play here. 

The easiest way to make sense of it is to look at the quality of the opposition each team has played.  Much like Saturday’s game, one team has gone up against much tougher opponents.  BC has played the Bombers (now 3-1), the Stampeders and of course the weak Elks.  Toronto has faced the RedBlacks (1-2) and the TigerCats (0-3).

Against weaker opposition the Argos’ defence has allowed more than 100 yards more per game than the Lions’ defence.  The have also allowed opposing QBs to complete 77% (9th in CFL) of their passes while the Lions have allowed only a 57% (2nd in CFL) completion rate.  BC’s stingy “D” has allowed a meager 7 pts/game while the Argos have allowed 22 pts/game. 

Yes the Argos are near the top with 399 yds/game offence, 37.5 pts/game and only 1 sack allowed but they have not faced anything close to the Lions’ defence which leads the league with 11 sacks.  To add to their level of difficulty on Monday, the Argos will be without their starting LT Cage (a crucial position against league sack leader Betts who humbled all star LT Bryant in week 3). 

The Lions will be missing one of their star receivers, Whitehead, but they will have two of last year’s 1000 yard receivers back in the lineup.  Rhymes and Hatcher missed the game against the Bombers but will return to give QB Adams more weapons.  The Argos will also be missing MLB Williams and LB Muamba, so the CFL’s second leading rusher Mizzell will be harder to handle.  It seems clear that the play is for the Lions to cover the spread.

The 0-3 Marlins were embarrassed by the Braves on the road, but were very good in previous action, winning 6 of 7 games.  They allowed an average of just 2 runs per game over that stretch.  They are 25-16 at home, facing a Cards team that are 5 games below .500 on the road.  Cards' right-hander Mikolas has an ERA of  over 6.00 in his last three appearances, with more poor than quality starts in June.  Mikolas gives up more hits than one would care to see; opposing batters hit .325 against him last month  He will face Miami starter Garrett Braxton, one of the better young lefties in June.  He has given up just 4 runs in 4 appearances, with a very fine 13-1 K to walk ratio.
The Cards offense has picked up, but they are giving up a pretty hefty surplus in runs allowed to runs scored/L7 games.  Miami can't claim the same level of offense, but they are hitting well for average over the last two weeks, and give up 3 less runs-allowed per game/L7 compared to St Louis.Garrett is a fine pitcher of late and also gets run support. The Marlins have won the last 7 of Garrett's starts, scoring 5 or more runs in all but a single game. Take Miami to play with a little more urgency after being swept. Take the Marlins to win. 10*!

The Cubs and Guardians split the firsts two games of their Chicago series.  The 6-4 Guardians are playing better lately.  Their pitching has seldom been in question this year, but the offense has perked up, climbing all the way to seventh in OPS lately.  They are hitting right-handers at a nearly .300 clip in their last ten games.  In spite of the ten-spot they put up on Friday, the Cubs offense is only average lately.  Here is an odd stat.  Chicago is a very poor 2-11 on Sundays while the Guardians are 9-5.

Taillon has struggled this year with just one quality start in June and a 5.60 ERA for the month.  He has been particularly poor at home to date, and struggles after the fourth inning.  Civale's (3.18 ERA) last start was his worst, giving up three runs in the sixth inning, but has otherwise been very dependable since his return at the beginning of June.  In an admittedly small sample size, he has been very strong on the road this year. Both teams have very good bullpens at the moment.

I like the Guardians' chances today.  While they aren't the best road team, they have a definite step-up in starters, and have been tough on any right-handed pitching, let alone one that has struggled.  Take Cleveland to win.

The Nationals weren't feeling much love in Philadelphia on Saturday.  After a close win on Friday night, the floodgates opened with the Phillies scoring 19 runs.  Washington will face a very tough left-hander on Sunday in Ranger Suarez.  Suarez has spent much of the season on the IL, but certainly looks to be back in form in June.  That's now 5 consistently dominant starts and an ERA of 1.08 for the month. The Nats' Williams lost to the Phillies earlier in the year.  He has been uneven this Year with a poor and a good start in his last 2 appearances, but his ERA for June was 5.04.  He has a poor K. to W. ratio of late and doesn't pitch as well on the road.  The Nationals used 6 relief pitchers on Saturday and have a bullpen ERA of over 5.00 lately, so no one will be rushing to Williams' aid.
The Phillies are on a bit of a roll.  The offense has picked up; not generally quite like Saturday's game, but still top four in the last week in OPS. They had the best pitching in the league in June, with a very sharp pen at the moment; not something you can often say about the Phillies.  They have owned the Nats in Philadelphia, and I believe that this dominance will continue on Sunday.  Take the Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Bombers were humbled last week against the Lions.  They are a veteran team.  They don’t lose their focus and run around like angry young men in practice to get back on track.  They know that they have what it takes.  Many of them took practices off this week to lick their wounds and reset.  Star defender Jeffcoat will be back on the D-line and veteran CB Houston will be back in the secondary after being out against the Lions.  They know Alouettes QB Fajardo has a banged-up O-line that has already averaged 5 sacks against a game to start the season and will be eager to take advantage. 

The Alouettes defence has done well against 2 of the 3 worst teams in the CFL so far this season.  But now they are banged up with MLB Williams and star DB Evans on IR.  DL Heninger may not play either.  Bombers QB Collaros will have taken note and his proud veteran  O-line will want to make amends after surrendering an unheard of 7 sacks against the Lions last week.  The Bombers run game is 2nd best in the CFL in yards/game and without their starting MLB the Als will be in tough.  Look for the Bombers and their varied passing and running attack to win and cover the touchdown.

The Marlins were on a five game winning streak before being rudely interrupted by the Braves.  While the Braves have owned the Marlins in the past, I believe Miami will bounce back from Friday's miserable loss with a much better effort.  The Braves have not yet faced Miami's secret weapon, Euly Perez.  He hasn't allowed a run in three starts and had a 0.32 ERA.  Is he due for a stumble?  Even against the hard-hitting Braves, I don't think so.  39 year old veteran Charlie Morton, starts for the Braves.  He has been a good dependable starter for the Braves, consistently delivering five innings, and allowing about three runs per start.  The Braves have a solid bull pen at the moment.
Other than Friday's shelling, the Marlins hadn't allowed more than two runs in five straight games.  They have some offensive upside at least in BA lately. Perez has delivered 6 innings in his last starts.  I think the Marlins, a significant underdog, will get their backs up and will stick around in this game.  Take Miami on the run line at +1.5. 10*!

Severino shut out the hard-hitting Rangers over five innings in his last appearance.  That's a fine start and a better start in his last two, possibly a sign of his return to form.  He has only seven starts this year, spending a ton of time on the IL, so he is a good bet to finish the season well. He'll face Cards' starter Jack Flaherty who has now struggled badly in two straight starts.  He has pitched well at times this season, but has an ERA for May and June of over 5.00, and has an opposing BA of over .300 in the last two months.  
The 6-4 Yankees appear to be righting their ship.  They  won their last two series and are making their way up the the offensive ladder after dwelling in the cellar for some time. The NY bullpen is now back in form with a recent ERA approximately half of the Cards' relievers. Meanwhile the Cards are still struggling.  Their home record is absolutely awful this year.  They were pummeled in their last two games, and are still hitting well below average of late.  I'm wagering on Severino and the Yankees, both on the upswing, to win on Friday.

This is the turtle derby with the two winless wonders, the Elks and the RedBlacks, doing battle.  Both teams have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball.  So much so that they will both start new QBs this week.  Doege had some good results in relief of Cornelius albeit in garbage time against the Argos last week while Adams did just OK in relief of the hapless Arbuckle.  The QBs aren’t the problem as both teams have chaos causing O-lines that can’t control the line of scrimmage enough for their skill players to produce.  And the Elks will be without starting LT Garnett this week.  On top of that the little passing production the Elks had against the Argos will be reduced without star receiver Lewis and wily vet Arcenaux. 

The Elks defence hung in there for the first half against the Argos but just ran out of gas because their offence just couldn’t stay on the field long enough for them to catch their breath.  Given that the RedBlacks seem to have mastered the 2 and out so far this year the Elks “D” should perform better.  The Redblacks D-line should continue their successful ways against this woeful Elks O-line and its resultant weak rushing attack.

These two teams’ offences are 8th and 9th in the league in total yards, passing yards and points scored.  The Elks have averaged 14.7 points/game while the RedBlacks are even worse with a 13.5 points/ game avg.

You can see where I’m headed here.  In their last 9 head to head the under is 9-1 between these two teams.  The Redblacks have had an under total for all 3 games this season, are 7-1 for the under in their last 8 week 4 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games in June.  The Elks unders are 2-1 this season.  Although the field is dry and artificial turf these two offences will mud wrestle their way to an under total on Friday night.

The Cubs have lost 4 straight immediately after winning 4 straight.  They are favored vs Cleveland on Friday, and are very good as a home favorite this year.  They are, as usual, a perplexing team, but with left hander Steele on the mound, a win is certainly not out of the question. Steele has had a very solid year, and has looked sharp in his two games back from the IL.  he has a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts and has been especially good at home this season.  Chicago is getting great support from their bullpen, even outstripping the Guardians' relievers in recent action.

The Guardians will start righty Quantrill fresh off the IL himself.  His season has been marred by significant injury and substandard pitching, so he is very much in a "show me" situation.  In spite of Clevelands' recent hitting surge, the Cubs have the superior offense this season.  Cleveland has been very poor in interleague match ups and has limited experience against Steele.  I'll take the lefty and the sluggin' Cubs to win at home.

The 5-2 Dodgers are starting to hit better and are winning a few games.  The Rockies are struggling at 3-7.  The Rockies Anderson had a  surprisingly strong May, but based on his track record, you had to believe that it wasn't going to last.  Sure enough in his last two starts, he tumbled down the stairs, giving up 16 runs in 5+ innings.  He has allowed 10 dingers this month, not a good look for a Rockies pitcher.  The Colorado bullpen has been very poor (7.00 ERA) lately, so don't look for solace there. 

One thing the Dodgers can do is hit the long ball. They will start rookie Sheehan, who has started his career in a very positive way.  It is a small sample size so far but we will see how he fares in Coors Field today.  The Dodgers' bull pen is not the dominant one of old, but at leAst is better than  the Rockies'.  I'm wagering on Sheehan and the long ball today.  Take the Dodgers to win on the run line at - i 1/2.

The Mets, just 7-17 in June, face the light-hitting Brewers for the series tie-breaker.  With Scherzer on the mound, the Mets are a large favorite.  Scherzer's last two starts have been vintage Max, but he has been uneven this season.  Houser starts for the Brewers.  he has started just two games in June, for a total, including relief efforts, of just 16 innings this month.  While Houser hasn't pitched poorly, I still think that we can expect to see plenty of the Brewers' bullpen. Relief pitching has been their forte this season and especially lately.  Neither team is hitting well, 25th and 26th in OPS in recent days.  The Mets' bullpen is still struggling with an ERA over 5.00 of late.
Considering the Mets very humble results lately I don't really buy today's odds.  The Brewers have good success vs right-handed pitching.  The Mets are very poor against teams above .500.  Take the Brew crew on the run line at +1.5. 9 *!

39 year old Greinke has pitched well at times for the Royals this year, but has struggled in June.  His starts are 5 innings or under and his ERA is at a very poor 9.00 ERA for the month.  Even when Grienke does pitch well, he can't seem to win a game as the Royals' relief pitching ERA hovers around the 5.00 mark.  Not to mention the Royals are 28th in the league in OPS for the season. 

The Guardians' right-hander Bieber is off a pair of poor outings but is a likely candidate for bouncing back on Thursday.  While he has been uneven this season, he'll throw longer than Greinke and with far more upside.  The Guardians' bullpen is, as usual, very sharp.  They are 7-3 as a road favorite, and hitting right-handers more than 50 points higher than KC.  The Royals still struggle  at home, just 10-29 in Kansas City this season.  I am wagering on Bieber and the Guardians to win on Thursday.

These two probable pitchers have been outstanding lately.  The White Sox’ Giolito is having an amazing June as his ERA is 1.50 and his WHIP is 1.04.  In his last start he whiffed 10 batters over 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run in a losing effort.  In his last 3 starts Giolito’s ERA is 2.00.  Angels’ Barria usually works from the bullpen but has started 4 games this season.  In those four starts his ERA is 2.83. 

But what about the under records for these two teams.  The White Sox unders are 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs right handed starters and 3-0-2 in their last 5 on the road.  In their last 11 the Angels’ under record is 11-0 vs. teams with a losing record.

In terms of hitting, the woeful White Sox are 26th in avg. and 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.  The Angel are in the top 5 in both stats over the last 15 days but in their last game against Giolito the Angels lost and were held to 4 hits against him over 5 innings.  This looks like another solid total.  Go with the under on this one. 

Probable starters Giolito for the White Sox and Barria for the Angels have been hot lately.  The biggest difference is that Barria’s Angels have scored almost 100 more runs than the White Sox have.  And the Angels are on fire lately as over the last 15 days they have been top 5 in the majors in avg and OPS.  The White Sox, over the same time period, have been hitting in the bottom quarter of the majors in avg. and OPS.  In their last 10 vs. RHP the Angels have averaged 6.75 runs/9, while the White Sox have averaged ½ of that number.

Add to that the Angels’ 4-0 record in Barria’s last 4 starts and their 4-0 record in Barria’s last 4 starts on grass and you start to understand the validity of this play.  Go with Barria and the Angels on the Money Line.

Probable pitchers Bradley for the Rays and Gallen for the D-backs are both having solid seasons.  But looking under the hood for both shows a deterioration in June.  Bradley’s ERA has ballooned to 4.26 and his WHIP is 1.46 for the month.  Gallen’s has crept up too to 3.16 and 1.25 respectively.  Bradley is only lasting an average of less than 5 innings per outing.  He really has depended on a solid Rays bullpen to bail him out.  It may be too late by the time they arrive though as the D-backs are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS. 

In terms of scoring, the Rays have averaged 5.67 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.24 R/9.  In their L10 the Rays have averaged 6.71 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.94/9.  Those two sets of stats point to an average total of well over 10 for this match up.  Take the over on this one.

The probable starters for this one are both solid pitchers.  Ryan for the Twins is coming off a complete game shutout, even though his two outings before that were pretty bad.  He averages 6 IP/start this season, so against a hard hitting Braves lineup it should be 6 or less.  If that’s the case his bullpen has not been great the last 10. 

On the mound for the Braves, probable starter Elder has been even more solid than Ryan.  He pitched 7 shutout innings his last outing and gave up only 1 earned run in the start before that.  His bullpen has been much stronger the last 10 games so when he gets pulled he will have that support.

In their last 15 days of baseball the Braves lead the majors in avg. and OPS while the Twins are 22nd in both statistics over the same period.  The Twins batters also have the 2nd worst strikeout rate in the majors.  On top of that the Braves have average 8.66 R/9 vs. RHP this season while the Twins have averaged 4.01 R/9 against righties.  In their last 7 the Braves have averaged 8.1 runs/game while the Twins have averaged 4.3 runs/game.  Those two sets of stats alone easily make the spread.  It seems pretty clear to pick the Braves to cover the spread.

The Reds are hitting exceptionally well at the moment, first in BA and OPS over the last week..  They have had to to keep winning, with an overall ERA of 6.00+ lately. Reds' lefty Williamson has an ERA of 5.64 in June and he will face much tougher competition in the Orioles on Monday.  The second inning has been deadly; he has an ERA of over 12.00.  The Orioles have pitching woes of their own, both starting and relief.  Mondays' starter Irwin has been a little better in his recent call-up, but his innings have been limited .  He has struggled the third time through the order with a frightening ERA of 32.40 when pitching into the fifth.  Relief is not in sight, with a bullpen ERA of 7.56 over the last 10 games. 

Two solid hitting teams, two struggling starters and bullpens.  Let's not stray from the obvious on Monday.  Take the Orioles and Reds to go over the total.

Everyone is high on the Argos after their 2022 Grey Cup win and week 2 victory over the TigerCats.  But they were not dominant, especially in the air.  The Elks improved defence held powerhouse BC to 22 points and QB Harris and Saskatchewan’s passing attack to 17 points.  They haven’t given up a rush TD yet and that is the only way the Argos got TDs in their first game. 

The Elks haven’t’ won at home in a long time but they are 8-2 in their L10 at home vs. the Argos and 7-3 overall in their L10 vs. the Argos.  The Argos are missing their top 2 receivers for this game and their starting C Ciraco is a game time decision.  Chad Kelly hasn’t proven himself yet; only one full game and relief in the Grey Cup last year. 

Everyone is focused on the struggles of Elks’ QB Cornelius.  He hasn’t been impressive, that’s for sure but the Argos will be missing monster DL Oakman and LB Muamba so the Elks’ iffy O-line might have a bit of a chance to help Cornelius out a little more. 

6.5 is a lot of points to give the Elks on this one.  I think they have a good chance to make use of those points and keep it close.  Pick the Elks on this one.

The Pirates evened the series with the Marlins last night, but might struggle to generate enough offense today.  They are dead last in the league in both BA and OPS over the last 7 games.  Just 7-13 in June, they are also well below par vs right handers.  They will face a rookie phenom, Euly Perez, who has been absolutely terrific of late, shutting out the Jays and the Mariners in his last 2 starts, while giving up just a single run over 17 innings. He has enough starts under his belt to not expect a significant drop-off today.  Today's starter for the Pirates, Oviedo has also been effective in June, if he can get out of the first inning unscathed.  He struggles to a 9.00 ERA out of the gate.  Of concern as well is his road record.  He has been less effective, at 1-3, with a 5.08 ERA.
The Marlins aren't a power-hitting team but they have been hitting for very high average (.302 BA L7) of late.  They appear to be a legit contender this year, are 14-7 in June, 9-3 as a home favorite, and strong against right-handed pitching.  They also have the better pen.  I'm wagering on Perez and the Marlins to bounce back and win at home today.

If I had to pick one pitcher to step into the limelight in London, it might be Stroman.  He doesn't lack FOR confidence, and it doesn't hurt that he has won 7 straight games with a sparkling 1.29 ERA.  He has also pitched for length, lasting into the 6th or more in 7 straight as well.  He'll face the Cards' young left-hander Liberatore, who's starts have been short and generally pretty average, with a 6.12 ERA to date.  He has also struggled on the road.  With just 15 appearances, who knows how he will respond to such a showcase event.  Chicago is 12-7 in June, and 13-9 vs left-handers.  They are getting solid offense and excellent overall pitching, resulting in an impressive 6.1/2.3 Runs for/against in their last 10 games.  The Cards have struggled in June and against right-handers of late, breaking even at 5.1/5.1 Runs for and against. Watch for the "Stro show" to win out in London.  Take the Cubs to win Game two.

After years at or near the top the Stampeders were humbled last season and are still moving in a downward direction.  Hard to believe they are favored over the Roughriders who had some bad luck with illness and injury last year.  The brothers Dickenson are going to do battle with the Roughriders’, Craig in a much more precarious situation than Dave has been after years of success with the Stamps.  This desperation has filtered down into Craig’s Roughriders who are playing like there is no tomorrow. 

With veteran QB Harris at the helm the Roughriders had passing success against the Bombers last week that even outstripped what BC did in their surprising domination of the Bombers this week.  Meanwhile new starter Maier for the Stamps was humbled against BC and only had modest success against the lowly Redblacks last week.

Roughriders’ all-stars Moncrief(LB) and Marshall(CB) return this week as do starters Hawkins(LT) and Kelly(OL).  These upgrades to the O-line should allow Harris to do even more of his magic. 

Maier and the Stamps will be missing their top WR Begleton as well as top RB Carey and starting LT Coker is still out.  As Maier still really hasn’t found his footing he could struggle.

ATS the Stamps are 2-8 over the last 10 after a win and 7-20 in their last 27 home games.  Hard to believe the Stamps are so heavily favored.  Take the points on offer to the Roughriders as they should win going away.

The 7-3 Red Sox won the opener on the road vs the White Sox on Friday.  Second time around it will be lefty James Paxton vs the Chicago's hard luck veteran Lance Lynn.  Lynn has struggled this year in most starts.  He struck out 16 last time out and still lost.  K's aside, it is earned runs that have been the issue; 12 in 17 innings in June alone.
We have barely seen Paxton in recent years, but it appears that he is both healthy and in good form since returning from the IL. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.33 in June, while holding opposing batters to just .182.  He is no slouch for strikeouts either, with 24 as opposed to 4 walks this month.
The Red Sox are better on offense, and have acceptable relief pitching at the moment.  The White Sox do not fare well vs over .500 teams, and for what ever reason are truly awful in home games this year. I'll take Paxton over Lynn at the moment; in most other categories Boston has the edge.  I am seeing "red" again on Saturday.  Boston to win Game two.

The hard hitting Texas Rangers have now won four straight against the Yankees this season, holding them to 2 or less runs in each game.  The Yankees' bats truly are woeful of late, with a .179 BA and a .563 OPS.  They are giving more run than usual as well.  The Rangers are well above .500 on the road and have climbed back to 4th in OPS lately.  Jon Gray gave up 6 runs in under 3 innings last time out, a very rare poor appearance, which is almost universally the case after a complete game performance in his previous start.  Otherwise he has been excellent and consistent; a fine candidate for a bounce back start on Saturday.  Yankees right-hander Severino looked somewhat better in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5 innings, but his appearances have generally been short and poor in June.  The Yankees should have the edge in the bullpen, but they have multiple pitchers on the IL.  Take the Rangers to give the Yankees another kick while they are down.  Take Texas to win again.

After six straight wins, the Red Sox were beaten by the Twins on consecutive days.  Young right-hander Bello starts for Boston on the road on Saturday, hoping to turn things around.  He has been very good since the end of April, and is now pitching for length as well as ERA. He has a 2.70 ERA to date in June.  He'll face veteran White Sox righty Giolito who has been lights out in his last three starts with an even better June ERA of 1.50.  Giolito has been very good at home this season.  The Red Sox are top three in BA and OPS and have a great runs for and against ratio of 7.7/3.3 in the last week.  The White Sox are struggling with the bats, hitting .218, with a .646 OPS.  They are a rough 27th in the league against right-handed pitching.  Boston has the better relief pitching at the moment.  The White Sox' relievers are skirting the 6.00 mark in collective ERA for the last ten games. Better hitting, average as compared to below average relief pitching, and a toss up on the mound to start.  I am seeing RED for Friday.  Take Boston to win.

Montreal has only played one game.  They are barely out of pre-season and that means a disjointed offence in the CFL in June.  Hamilton’s starting QB is a game time decision that seems to be leaning towards not playing.  Hamilton’s O-line is banged up and dysfunctional.  Starting LT (Figureroa) and RT(Riley) are both out and 5 other O-linemen are on IR.  Top receiver Bayless is also out.  Not a recipe for a successful offence.

Both teams were already looking like they were going to depend on their defences this season. 

The under is 4-0 for the last 4 between these two teams in Hamilton.  Under is 6-1 for the last 7 between these two teams.  For Montreal unders are 6-1 in their last 7 following a win.   Clearly with past records and underperforming offences in June you should take the under for this game.

The Reds may be the hottest team in baseball at the moment, but I'll take the Braves in most situations, including Friday's.  Atlanta is a fine road team, with a 14-3 record in June.  They lead the Reds in recent offense, and are considerably better against right-handers.  Cincinnati have been winning big at home lately.  They have also been winning Weaver's recent starts in spite of mostly very poor pitching performances, especially in June when his ERA has ballooned to 10.13.  The Braves are the wrong team to face with the opposition hitting Weaver at a .356 in June. The Reds are just 24-26 vs right handed pitching, and will face a rookie right-hander with a very high upside in Smith-Shawver.  He has pitched well in his first two starts.  Start #3 can be a tough situation, but I still favor him over Weaver.  Both teams have solid bullpens, but I believe this game will be over early, as the Braves get their licks in vs Weaver.  Take the Braves to break the Reds' win streak on the road.

The big dogs are playing a game already.  The undefeated Bombers and Lions with their dominant defences will punish their respective offences in a classic early season battle.  For the Lions two of their top receivers are out (Rhymes and Hatcher) and their third top receiver (Whitehead) is back and could be fragile.  For the Bombers their star RB (Oliveira) is questionable which could be a setback for their league leading rush game. 

This game pits the #1 pass offence (Bombers) against the #1 pass defence (Lions).  June in the CFL always gives the edge to the defence.  The Lions’ defence is also #1 in points allowed with a miniscule 7.5 points against/game so far.  Combine that with the Bombers only allowing 29 points against/game and you have a total of only 36.5 allowed/game by these two defences.

In their last 6 games under is 6-0 for BC and their last 5 road games under is 5-0 (that includes two games in Winnipeg).  An interesting stat is that the Bombers in their last 7 week 3 games have unders dominating 6-1.  Go with the under and enjoy a smash mouth defensive battle.

The 0-9 Pirates aren't holding up anyone at the moment.  Their offense appears to have deserted them. They've been shut out in three of their last five games. Their bull pen is floundering big time; 9.00 ERA in their last ten games.  Pirates righty Keller has been given more runs than expected with just one quality start in his last five appearances, and a 5.19 ERA in June.  Miami has won five of their last seven, with fine pitching across the board. Left-hander Braxton Garrett has pitched pretty well all year with just one phenomenally poor start to blacken his card.  He has given up 2 or less runs in six of his last seven appearances.  Miami is a decent home team this year and has had the Pirates number lately, winning four of their last five meetings.  They are a small favorite on Thursday, but considering the Pirates' woeful performances lately, it is a small price to pay for a very solid wager.  Take the Marlins to win at home.

The A's and Guardians have played each other five times this season and four of those games were decided by one run.  Neither team hits lefties especially well, and we will see a pair of young southpaws meeting up in Cleveland today.  Sears is off a bit of a rougher start but has otherwise been very solid for the A's through May and June.  In his last seven starts he has allowed more than two runs just the once while averaging over five innings a start.  Cleveland's left hander Logan Allen started his rookie season very well but has struggled badly in his last two starts.  His June ERA is an unimpressive 7.29.  The bullpen was a weak spot for the A's but has been much better of late.  The Guardians have very reliable relief pitching. 

The A's have lost seven in a row, but six of those again have been by one run.  They have not been quite the pushovers they were for much of the season.  Sears is likely the A's best chance for an outright win, and Allen's recent starts have been a concern.  I am wagering on Oakland to at least keep this game close, although a victory would not surprise me.  Take the A's +1 1/2.

I know the Rays are tough at home but I just couldn’t pass up this matchup with the Orioles probable pitcher Wells as the underdog.  He is on a 3-0 streak and his ERA is a solid 2.89 in June, while his overall WHIP is a miniscule 0.86.  His manager thinks he should be getting all-star consideration.  He gets his strikeouts (8 or more in 4 of his last 7 starts) and gives up the long ball but the Rays aren’t a hard-hitting team.  On top of that, the Rays’ bats have cooled as of late (down to 16th in OPS in the last 15 days) while the Orioles are on fire over the last 15 days with the 3rd best avg. and 7th best OPS in the majors.

Probable starter for the Rays, Bradley is only 22 and as such has run hot and cold.  He started as a top rookie in April, went cold in May and has had a .500 record in June.  In his last 3 starts he has averaged 4.1 innings pitched, 5.54 ERA and 1.85 WHIP (Wells has 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last 3 starts).  The first two months Bradley averaged 15 total innings pitched and is already at 13 in June so he could be near his limit.  It could spell trouble for him against the Orioles hot bats.

The Rays bullpen has been good if Bradley needs an early exit but they have 5 relievers out right now so that could be problematic for them.

Offensively in their last 10, the Orioles have scored 6.26 runs/9 and had a .308 avg. vs RHP while the Rays have scored 5.09 and had a .285 avg. in their last 10 vs. RHP.   With all of this leaning heavily towards Wells and the Orioles it’s hard not to take the underdog on the Money Line.

The Jays came back Tuesday night after a couple of blow out losses with a solid shutout of the Marlins.  Wednesday’s probable pitcher, reliable veteran Gausman, should continue this trend.  In 4 of his last 5 starts he has given up 1 earned run or less.  The Jays have a 5-0 record in his last 5 starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Against the Marlins, apart from the blowout loss on Monday, the Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the Marlins.

Marlins’ probable starter Alcantara has had 5 earned runs against in 2 of his last three starts and his ERA in June is 5.12.

The Marlins have a solid bullpen but have 4 relievers out right now.  The Jays bullpen used 3 of their top men on Tuesday but none threw more than 15 pitches.

Lately the Jays bats have been near the middle of the pack in the majors but the Marlins have been in the bottom ¼ .  Take the Jays for the win on this one.

Everything seems to be tilting towards the Cubs on this one.  Stroman and the Cubs are on streaks and Oviedo and the Pirates are not.  Stroman and the Cubs just beat Oviedo and the Pirates 7-2 on June 15th.  Oviedo only lasted 4.1 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. 

The Cubs bullpen has an ERA of 3.00 in their last 10.  The Pirates bullpen has been atrocious in their last 10 with an ERA of 9.51 and a WHIP of 2.01. 

At a club level the Cubs scored an average of 6.7 runs in their last 7 while the Pirates have struggled with only 2.7 runs/game.  In their last 7 the Pirates have lost by an average of 4.86 runs.  The Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. the Pirates and 4-1 in their last 5 in Pittsburgh.  Overall recently the Cubs are 7-3 while the Pirates are 2-8.  All of these add up to an evening where the Cubs cover the spread and then some. 

Both of the probable starters, Lynch for the Royals and Lorenzen for the Tigers have had their struggles lately but Lynch has been really up against it.  Royals are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts.  His team is on a 1-4 slide while the Tigers are on a 4-1 streak.  The Tigers have averaged 6 runs/9 against LHPs while the Royals have averaged only 3.51 runs/9 vs. RHP. If Lynch struggles early his bullpen has had a 4.71 ERA in their L10.  The Tigers’ bullpen has had a 3.10 ERA.

When it comes to hitting the Tigers have been hot lately with the 6th best OPS in their L7 while the Royals are mired down near the bottom of the majors.  All this adds up to a bucketful of stats that have the Tigers better than 1.5 runs better than the Royals.  These are reasons to expect the Tigers to cover the spread.

The 3-7 Mets travel to meet up with the Astros on Monday.  Both teams are underachieving this year; the Mets more-so I suppose.  They are 16 -23 on the road and very poor when facing an above.500 team.  The Astros, also 3-7, were swept by the Reds, so should be primed for a better effort. Scherzer has struggled in his last three starts.  He still gets his strikeouts but he has been hit at a .333 clip in June.  He'll face another strikeout pitcher in the Astros' young right-hander  Hunter Brown.  Brown has at times been uneven, but is definitely trending in  the right direction this season.  He is giving much needed innings in his appearances.  His last start was a seven inning shutout.

The offenses are average at the moment.  Houston is certainly missing Alvarez.  On "defense" it is no contest.  The Astros are second in  the league in runs allowed, and while their pen struggled on Sunday, that has hardly been the norm. The Mets still have a long list of injured pitchers.  Time was, Scherzer was close to a sure thing, however I'm wagering on the rookie Brown and the home team Astros to win on Monday.

The Tigers have won 3 of 4 games and averaged 7 runs in those wins.  That is quite an improvement for a team enmired in the cellar on offense this season.  Eight of their last ten games have gone over. The Royals are allowing plenty of runs lately; over 6 on average in their last 7 games.  They are very poor as a road underdog and just 2-13 in June.  Jordan Lyles has had an abysmal year to date, the consistent victim of big innings.  At 0-11 and with an era of well over 6, quality starts have been few and far between.  Young Tigers starter Olson surprised in his first two appearances since a June call up but his last start is probably truer to form, when he allowed 6 ER in 3+ innings. He struggled seriously in Triple A this season.  Both teams have an opportunity to put up some runs today.  I m wagering on a high total.  Take KC and the Tigers to go over.

I am wagering on the Red Sox at home in the second game of the double header with NY on Sunday.  Severino has not looked himself in June, struggling to a 10.54 ERA while being hit at a .349 clip this month.  The Green Monster could figure prominently on Sunday if he keeps pitching as he has.  He will face right hander Brayan Bello, who has been very steady in May and June, allowing 3 runs once in that period and 2 or less in his other appearances.  He had a great start against the Yankees in his last outing, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 innings.

The Yankees are really missing Judge and are 2nd last in team hitting over the last 15 games, with a .203 BA and .643 OPS.  They are hitting under .200 against right handers lately.  The Red Sox have climbed all the way to fourth in team hitting in the last 7 games. . The Yankees have the edge in relief pitching, but Bello's starts have been getting longer.  Take the Sox to win.

Everyone has high hopes for Bo Levi-Mitchell in Hamilton.  He did very little to justify those hopes in week 1 and things are looking tougher in week 2 against the Argo’s tough defence.  His O-line is more banged up this week with Van Zeyl’s replacement Saxelid now being questionable.  Top receiver White is also questionable.

It looks like 2022 all-star and CFL interceptions leader Jamal Peters is back in the fold after being let go by the Falcons.  He lined up as a starter during training this week.  He along with Al’s defensive MOP Pickett, will bring last year’s top secondary back up to snuff.  Although Grey Cup MOP Muamba looks like he will be out, newcomer MLB Williams, brought in from BC should help to pick up the slack as well along with all star McManis.  Also, free agent DL Orimolade brought in from Calgary will improve the D-line as they lick their chops after seeing Levi-Mitchell get sacked 3 times in week 1.  None of this bodes well with Levi-Mitchell’s attempts at resurrecting his career, especially since the Argo’s had a week to digest Mitchell’s game film against the Bombers.

This will be Grey Cup reliever, Chad Kelly’s first year as a starter but his confidence is sky high and with a former CFL QB as his coach, Dinwiddie, he should be well prepared after seeing the film of the TiCat’s defence getting steamrolled by the Bombers in week 1.

The Argos Coach Dinwiddie is 6-2 vs. the TiCats and 4-0 at BMO field.  With an extra week of prep due to the bye and a league low five 1st year players the TiCats are in tough.  Go with the Argos for the win on the Money Line

The Mariners lost in the 11th on Saturday, but I like their chances to bounce back on Sunday. Their possible "boy wonder" starts again.  It has been an up and down season for Bryce Miller, starting at a record breaking pace only to tank utterly for two games, then bouncing back last time out with a 6 inning 1 run 1 hit appearance.  I am banking on continued success on Sunday.  He is 3-1, 3.57 ERA at home this year.

He'll face veteran White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn.  Lynn straightened out for 3 games in May but mostly his season has been a major disappointment.  He has given up the pitcher's futility measurement of a run an inning in June.  Lynn has been VERY poor on the road and in day games this year.

The Mariners are just .500 for the year, but they are 17-5 against poorer teams.  The M's have a better offense at the moment, and now that their pen is healthy, stronger relief pitching as well.  The White Sox are just 13-24 on the road this year.  Take the Mariners to win at home on Sunday!

The 8-2 Angels shut out the Royals in game one of the series.  I like their chances in Game two as well.  Most things are going well for the Angels, including the way they hit right handed pitching.  They may get some good hacks against Mayers, a long relief/occasional starter who landed in the bigs in mid May.  He started surprisingly well but then took a nose-dive in June with an 11.25 ERA in 8 innings-pitched.  He'll face another right-hander in the Angels' Canning, who has been very consistent since mid-May, allowing 3 runs or less and averaging 6 innings a start.

The 0-10 Royals are really scuffling this year; poor at home and against RH pitching, with a 2.7/6.1 Runs For/Against ratio in their last 7 games.  The Angels are getting fine work from the bullpen, while the Royals' clocks in at 5.41 L10 games.

With these odds, jump on the Angels!! 10!

Now in his second year, Marlins' lefty Braxton Garrett has some definite up-side.  He has pitched well for extended periods, with rare miscues.  He shut out the White Sox with 9 strikeouts in his last start, and has been very good on the road this year.  He will face rookie Jacob Irving (1-3, 5.81), who has had his issues this year, especially after the 4th inning.  He is just 0-2 with a 7.32 ERA at home.  While Miami is just .500 on the road, the Nats are a very poor home team.  The Marlins are a very fine 10-2 in Washington.  Miami isn't a powerhouse offense, but they put up six runs vs the Nationals last night, and are an impressive 7-3 in their last 10 games.  The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the league this year.  Take Miami's superior pitching to lead the way to victory on the road today.   9 stars!

The Brewers have lost six games in a row. Perhaps right-hander Teheran can help right the ship.  Now 4 starts into a career re-start, he has been masterful, allowing just 4 runs in 23+ innings, while pitching into the 7th in his last two starts.  The Brewers' pen has been below average so a long start would be helpful today.  Hill, the Pirates' ageless lefty has had his moments this year.  He has a 2-0, 1.98 ERA record in June, but also is prone to some poor starts, 3 of them in May alone.  The Pirates will keep him in as long as possible today as the bullpen has been shockingly bad, with an ERA over 12 in their last 5 games.  Neither the Brewers nor the Pirates have hit well lately.  I am looking for another long quality start from Teheran.  Even the light-hitting Brewers should be able to score some runs against the Pirates' floundering relievers.  take the home side to break through today.  Brewers to win.

Two very disappointing teams square off when the Cards' Mikolas duels the Mets' Tylor Megill on Friday. Mikolas struggled last time out but has otherwise been generally consistent.  He was 3-0, with a 1.89 ERA in May.  If Mikolas' last start was poor, Megill's was off the charts bad, allowing 9 runs in just 3+ innings.  He struggled in May as well, with an opposing batters' average of .292.  I like the Cards to get something going after five straight losses.  Their offense has improved lately, and the Mets' bats have disappointed in recent games.  I favor Mikolas as a starter.  The only issue is the Cardinals' stumbling bullpen has been rung up big time lately, with an ERA of 5.64/L10 games.  Not that the Mets' pen has been that much better lately, and NY has not been hitting right-handers as well.  I 'm expecting the Cardinals to flex some offensive muscle against Megill. Take the Cardinals to lead after five innings and hold on for the victory.

Cease has looked back to normal in his last two games, a relief for the White Sox. The Sox have also looked better, winning six of their last ten, although they have struggled recently.  The Dodgers have slowed down in recent games, and are now below .500 L10.  Grove (8.28 ERA) starts on Thursday. He has not impressed this season, giving up 8 ER in 9 innings in his last 2 starts.  His ERA skyrockets after the third inning.  An early exit is unlikely as the Dodgers' bullpen is struggling in recent games, not surprising considering their long list of pitchers on the IL.  The White Sox bullpen has been excellent with an ERA of 2.25 L10 games. I expect the White Sox to show some offense against Grove.  Take the underdog to win or at least keep it close on the road.

Week 1 went well with a 3-0 record.  I am ready and willing to play for Week 2.  Here is a great play for you.        

Analysis    Calgary and Ottawa both lost in Week 1 and both are loathe to start the season 0-2.  Both teams opened with low scoring results for their offence.  15 for Calgary and 12 for Ottawa.  Typical June results in the CFL for offences that played their QBs for limited minutes in the pre-season and just don’t have the reps to be productive.

Under is 5-1 for the Stamps after a loss in their last 6.  The RedBlacks under is 14-6 after a loss.  So clearly both teams stress defence in the week of prep after a loss.  In their last 7 meetings under is 6-1.

Ottawa still must start number 2 QB Arbuckle as Masoli still isn’t ready.  Arbuckle threw 3 picks against a revamped Alouettes secondary.  Ottawa will be missing starting RB Williams and WR Demon is nicked up but should play.  It will be another long night for the RedBlacks offence.

Calgary QB Maier struggled again against the Lions and will be missing a second O-line starter as Thornton is joining starting LT Coker on IR.  Ottawa got 6 sacks against the Alouettes and harassed Fajardo all game.  Calgary will also be missing last year’s leading rusher Carey and top receiver Henry is questionable.  WR Philpot is still out.  It won’t be a fun night for Maier.

This will be a typical June CFL matchup with defences dominating  and offences suffering from a lack of reps.  Take the under for the total.

The Twins are at home to the 1-9 Tigers today.  They have won four of five games, stand third in runs allowed, and have a fine starter on the mound.  Sonny Gray has yet to give up more than three runs  in thirteen starts this year.  He is particularly tough at home (1.71 ERA) and has given up just one home run to date.  Not that Detroit is know for the long ball.  They are dead last in runs scored this year.  They also have pitching woes, with a combined ERA of 5.94 in their last ten games.

The Tigers lost both ends of a double header on Wednesday.  Add in travel, and you have a very tired team.  Today's Tigers starter lefty Matthew Boyd (5.55 ERA) has had a few good starts but most of them have been similar to his last one, giving up five runs over five innings.  The Twins are heavily and legitimately favored.  While not the hottest offense, they are a very good home team.  I believe they will beat up a demoralized Tigers team today.  Take Minnesota on the run line at -1 1/2.  9 stars!

The A's are on an improbable 6-1 run, including taking two of three from the Rays.  Of all their pitchers, Blackburn gives them the best opportunity to extend this streak.  Since returning from the IL he has two of three quality starts, including a six inning shutout last time out.  He will face Tj Bradley, who struggled to a 6.23 ERA in June.  The RAys have a very long list of injured pitchers, and the A's, who are also getting fine relief pitching for the moment, have absolutely nothing to lose today.  I am taking the A's to win or at least keep this one close.  Take Oakland on the run line at +1 1/2.

Probable pitchers Suarez for the Phillies and Kelly for the D-backs are putting together solid seasons.  They just haven’t been able to do it against each others’ teams.  It might have to do with the power both teams display at the plate as of late.  In the last 15 days, D-backs are 2nd in OPS and 6th in avg. while the Phillies are 8th and 4th respectively over the same time period.  Suarez’s last 3 starts against the D-backs has resulted in 13 runs against the Phillies in two of them and 5 in the other; both with totals well over 8.5.  Kelly’s last start against the Tigers ended up with a total of 17!

The Phillies avg 4.61 runs/9 for this season while the D-backs avg 5.25 runs/9 for this season.  Quick math; that’s a total of 9.86 runs/9 when combined.  The D-backs average 5.4 runs against LH starters while the Phillies avg. 4.7 runs against RH starters.  It all adds up to a total over 10  Take the over for the win.

Probable pitcher Ober is working on a solid season.  His 2.61 ERA and .97 WHIP are well earned.  He has been in some very low scoring pitching duels.  14 of his last 15 starts have been under totals.  The Brewers probable pitcher Rea is a step below with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.  3 of his last 15 starts have seen him leave in the 3rd inning and 6 have been over totals. 

Reas’ bullpen has struggled over the last 10 games with a 6.25 ERA while the Twins’ bullpen has had an ERA of 2.93.  At home the Twins’ bullpen has a 2.93 ERA while the Brewers’ bullpen has a 4.42 ERA on the road.  All this leads to a lot of innings of higher scoring for the Twins.  Expect them to win and cover the spread of -1.5.

Vegas are heavy favorites and deservedly so.  Unless some unlikely magic happens this should be the end of the road for the scrappy Panthers.  Bobrovsky has been shown to be mortal in this series with a 3.47 GA avg. and dismal .850 save %, while Hill has continued his run with a 2.25 GA avg and .920 save %.   Hill has only allowed 2 goals/game in regulation in the entire finals. 

On the offensive side, Vegas has outscored Florida 12-4 at home when they have the last change and can dictate matchups against the Panthers’ inferior depth.  This has been further enabled by Vegas’ 100% PK  rate and their 33% PP rate in their last 5 playoff games.

Vegas’ physical superiority has also been demonstrated as Panther players are struggling on the injury front as Duclair,  Luostarinen and most notably Tkachuk are all struggling and questionable for game 5.  And we can’t forget that Gudas is also in rough shape and was not very noticeable in game 4,

Vegas is 7-0 in their last 7 at home against the Panthers.  They also know how to close out a series as evidenced by their decisive 6-0 win to finish off Dallas, the 5-2 closeout against the Oilers and the 4-1 series ending win over Winnipeg.  Notice the theme here. The Panthers will be even more dispirited than those three teams. The Knights should win this one by 2 or more goals which offers a healthy payout. 

Another subway series starts Tuesday.  Both teams have had their struggles lately.  Yankees are 2-3 while the Mets a 1-4 in their last 5.  In their last 10 the Yankees have hit .173 against RHP.  The Mets aren’t much better at .200.  Both are in the bottom half of the majors in avg and OPS.  Star slugger Judge is out for the Yankees and their bullpen which has been great this season has 6 pitchers out with injury.  Both teams can’t lose, so what is going to make the difference Tuesday night. 

Probable pitcher Severino came back in late May from a rehab assignment and has been struggling mightily to find is old form.  The oft injured starter has been uneven at best with an ERA of 8.31 in his last two starts.  The Mets’ veteran Scherzer is having a solid year with 4 of his last 5 starts resulting in 1 earned run or less. 

The Yankees are 1-5 in the last 5 at the Mets’ Citi Field.  Take the Mets to win this one. 

Blue Jays’ probable pitcher Bassitt has been on fire for the last 7 games with a 2.02 ERA and a scintillating .88 WHIP.  All season, except for 3 outliers, his earned runs have been 2 or lower.  In Kremer’s last 7 for the Orioles he has had a 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Respectable but not in the same league as Bassitt this last while.  Both bullpens are coming off a night off.  Baltimore’s has looked better for the season but over the last 10 their ERA is 4.15 compared to Toronto’s marginally better 3.76 ERA over the same time period.  Effective reliever Coulombe will miss the game for the Orioles.

The Blue Jays’ bats have been in the top ¼ of the majors for the last 15 days while the Orioles’ have been in the top 1/2 of the majors . 

The Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 starts in Baltimore.  Both teams have been hot lately but it looks like the Orioles are going to cool down for this one.  Take the Blue Jays for the win.

The 3-7 Mariners have pitching woes.  In their last 10 games both starters and relievers have averaged over 6.00 ERA.  Their rookie Miller started his rookie season on a record pace, only to fall completely flat 2 starts ago, allowing 15 runs in 7 innings in his last 2 starts.  In picking the M's as a favorite, the odds-makers are clearly expecting a better start from Miller.  I disagree.  The Marlins will run out Luzardo on Monday.  Mostly up and only occasionally off, he has allowed just a single run in 4 of 6 of his last appearances.  He has a massive 86 strikeouts to date, and the Mariners strike out a ton.

The Marlins have been very good at limiting runs of late, allowing 1 or less in 6 of 10 games.  They are also hitting better than usual, creeping up to 11th in OPS in their last 15 games.  Miami isn't know as a strong road team , but most other aspects, I believe they have the advantage at the moment.   Take the road underdog to win for Monday.

The 3-7 Cardinals have struggled in June.  The offense has dropped off, and their relievers have staggered to a 5.40 ERA over the last 10 games.  Cards' lefty Liberatore (1-2, 6.00) has seen limited action and success.  Other than a fine first start to the season, he has been giving up more than a run an inning.   The Giants have been solid on the road and a better than .500 team in June.  They are hitting the ball much better than the Cardinals lately, 5.6 runs a game as compared to 3.3 for St. Louis.  The Giants have hit left-handers at a startling .368 clip lately, and have had fine relief pitching in their last 10 games.  Today's starter Logan shone in May (3-0, 1.30 ERA), but has not been quite as stingy in June.  He gave up 4 runs over 5+ innings at Coors Field last time out.  He is a great candidate to bounce back this time around. Webb is also good a bet for a longer start, having pitched into the 7th on most of his outings this year.  Look for the Cardinals to continue their poor play at home.  The Giants, a slight favorite today, will steal this game on the road. 10*!

Two improving young right-handers square off when the Red Sox meet the Yankees today.  Bello had a 2.67 ERA in May: giving up three runs in his last start to the Rays was a recent high.  Schmidt struggled at times early in the season but has been solid in his last three starts with a 2.16 ERA.  The Yankees still have one of the best pens in the business.  Neither team has been hitting well, tied for 21st in the league in OPS in their last seven games.  We don't generally think of the two teams as low scoring, but the under has figured in six of eight of Boston's recent games, and in five of six Yankees' starts.  the "judge" in not in session today. Let's stick with a low total again.  Take the Under this evening. 9*s!

These are the two with the lowest total for expected wins this season in the West.  And rightfully so after they both struggled to get out of the basement all last season.  The Elks haven’t won at home since 2019.  They will finally win some but not this one.

They made some big changes in the off season that will take a while to come together.  Three new targets for QB Cornelius in MOP finalist Lewis and newcomers Moore and Dunbar should help him improve his numbers.  RB Brown who came in part way through last season and was very effective will have a whole season to provide another option for Cornelius.  The weak link in all of this is the O-line which made things difficult for their QB.  Trying to sort things out with all his new receivers will be difficult under pressure

The Roughriders also had O-line problems last season.  The biggest difference is that their D-line has some emerging stars in Laniers and Robertson and newcomer Johnson and solid Dean at LB that will be able to better take advantage of the Elks weak O-line.  The Roughriders also have veteran QB Harris who has come over from the Alouettes with teammate Wieneke as well as Walker from the Elks.  They have a better chance of gelling quickly than the Elks passing game does.  And the Roughriders also have the dynamic duo of Morrow and Hickson at RB that were very successful before going down with season ending injuries last season.  Grab the points and look for the Roughriders to score the minor upset.

 The Diamondbacks have won four straight, two against the Tigers, and all four on the road.  Those last four wins have all been by four or more runs.  Their ace is on the mound on Sunday.  Gallen allowed more hits than usual against the Braves but he still held them to 2 ER.  That is about average for the right-hander, on usually about six innings of work.  The Tigers, now 1-9, haven't been getting many innings from their starters.  Sunday's starter Wentz is one of the culprits, with most of his outings under five innings.  He has given up almost a run an inning, too many the result of home runs.  The Tigers have a very long list of injuries, most of them pitchers.  They are last in runs-scored this season, and their bullpen has been overworked, and just average in effectiveness lately.  The D-backs are a strong fifth in runs scored and hitting left-handed pitching at a .310 clip in their last ten games.  Take Arizona on the run line at -1 1/2.  10*!

The Mariners are struggling, especially on this road trip.  They're just 1-5 so far and have given up ten runs or more in three of those games.  The Angels have won five straight, limiting runs to two or less in three of five starts. Angels' lefty Sandoval's last start was short and poor.  While he hasn't been as effective as he was last year, he is much better at home and has yet to pitch poorly in consecutive starts.  The Mariners rookie Woo was rudely greeted by the Rangers in his first career start.  It is out of the frying pan and into the fire for Woo, as the Angels, top seven in OPS/L15 games, have some big bats as well.  The Mariners are hitting below .200 in their last ten games, and their usually strong relief corps have an ERA of over six.  The Angels are getting solid pitching from the pen.  Seattle's run differential is a very ugly 2.7/7.3 L7 games.  Take the Angels, a good home team, to win.

As expected, we saw a much tighter-checking game three, with significantly fewer shots on both sides.  Play-off Bob looked sharp but the Panthers did a much better job in allowing him to see the puck.  While the Panthers didn't shut down Vegas's big three in Marchessault, Eichel and Stone, they did at least limit their opportunities to 8 shots on net in total.  The Knights are a very well coached team, exceptional at adjusting from game to game, and at limiting scoring on the road.  They limited Dallas at home to just 3 goals in 3 games.  I expect game four could again be low scoring, especially if Bobrovsky continues to rebound.  Hill wasn't quite as sharp in game three.  Look for the Knights' oversized defenders to come to his aid this time out.  Take Saturday's game to again go under.

The Guardians are finally hitting with some authority, climbing to 5th in OPS in the last week.  The Astros, just 4-5 in June, are missing Alvarez, and aren't producing as well as expected lately.  The Astros' 28 year old rookie France starts today.  He has been an effective pitcher but has not received much in the way of run support lately.  He'll face a returning Triston McKenzie who was absolutely lights out in his first game back.  The Guardians' bull pen is, as usual, very strong, significantly better than the Astros' at the moment.  I am a big fan of Mckenzie, so it is great news for a surging Guardians side that he is back and pitching as normal.  take the Guardians at home today.

The OU lines in this series have gotten lower and lower. They went from 218.5 to 216.5 to 213. Now, the Game 4 line is the lowest yet. Too low. Five of Denver's last eight visits here have still gone over the total. Now trailing 2-1, the Heat have seen the over go 4-1 their last 5, when behind in a series. You saw what happened in Game 2, when they were down 1-0. That game ended up with 219, the highest scoring game of the series. The Nuggets average 115.6 ppg. The Heat are going to have to score to keep up. This game goes OVER! 10* Playoff TOY

The Bombers have decided to run it back, keeping a veteran laden roster for another go at the Grey Cup.  They have the least amount of changes in a league that has huge turnover year to year.  This should be effective at least for the first few games of the season as they will all be on the same page.  Only center Couture is gone from the O-line (although he was injured much of last year and replaced by this year’s starter Kolankowski).  All the skill positions on offence have returned and on defense Bighill (MLB) and DEs Jeffcoat and Jefferson are back.  This should bode well to start the season but lets check back on this in the Fall.

Hamilton is a different story.  They brought in declining QB Levi-Mitchell and star MLB Thurman from Calgary, star RB Butler from BC and DL Sayles from the Bombers to name a few newcomers.  They will take awhile to gel.  There is a good argument that Levi-Mitchell may not thrive.  Behind one of the best CFL O-lines in history (by the metric of sacks allowed) and with the leading CFL rusher Careyin Calgary, he has declined precipitously over the last few seasons.  In 2021 he threw for 8 yds/completion and a sad 10 TD/13 Int ratio.  In 2022 it was a 9 TD/6 Int ratio where due to injuries and performance he ceded the starters’ role to Maier.  His Hamilton O-line is not going to afford him the same luxury.  This may not be pretty. 

Part of the T-Cats’ personnel turnover was not positive as they lost three all-star starters in the secondary.  Winnipeg’s vaunted passing attack should excel.

The Bombers’ home record was 8-1 in 2022 while the TiCats’ road record was 2-7.

In their last 5 in June, against the spread the Bombers are 4-1.  The TiCats are 1-4 against the spread vs. Winnipeg and 1-3-1 against the spread in Winnipeg. Clearly you should lay the points and go with the Bombers to beat the spread.

The White Sox are heating up, sweeping Detroit and taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees.  They are starting their ace, but Cease has had a disappointing season so far.  He now could be emerging from his funk if his last start is an indication.  He'll face Eury Perez, the Marlins' young and touted right-hander.  Barely out of his teens, he has a 2.25 ERA to start his career.  His last two starts have been 5 run shutouts.  Perez appears to be limited to 5 innings and Cease has not pitched for length so this game may come down to the bullpen and the offense.  It is no surprise that the Marlins have the better bullpen, but they've also hit a ton lately, now 4th in the league in OPS over the last week.

I am not certain the Cease is "fixed", but it appears Perez can hold his own, and I have more confidence in the Marlins in the later innings at the moment.  Take the underdogs to win on the road on Friday.

The Orioles return home after an indifferent road trip.  They are a very good home team this year, up against a Royals team that is just 9-21 in away games.  Wells starts for the O's today.  He has been solid more often than not, with a ton of strikeouts this season.  He can be a victim of too many long balls, but is very sharp (2.45 ERA) at home this season.  Lefty Daniel Lynch has appeared in just two games since returning from injury, and has looked just average so far.  With one of the worst pens in the business, don't expect much support from the KC relievers today.

The Royals' run differential is a very unhealthy 2.4/5.1 in their last seven games.  They are a poor hitting team, especially so against right-handers. I expect a big day from Wells and the Orioles' top eight lineup today. Take Baltimore on the run line at -1 1/2. 9*!

This rematch of last season’s West semi-final  is a great way to start the season.  Historically, the Stamps have a wide edge in games at McMahon Stadium but so many of those legends have moved on.  Thurman and Orimolade are gone from the interior of a stout defense.  From one of the most outstanding O-lines in recent history, left tackle Dennis is gone and his replacement Coker is on IR.  Left guard Williams is also on IR so Jake Maier’s back is going to be vulnerable.  Starter Jamerson from the secondary is also on IR.  Rick Campbell and his savy staff will have taken notice.

This will also be a new experience for QB Maier as he is the man this year and no longer the eager understudy.  It will be a new kind of pressure.  BC shut him down in the West semi-final.  It will be interesting to see what adjustments are made.

Vernon Adams will have to prove that he can continue to be a solid game manager and not just “Big Play V.A.”  It looked that way last season as he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 interception in the six games he started and went 12 for 12 in preseason.  His trio of 1000+ yard receivers, Rhymes, Whitehead and Hatcher (on IR for this game) are back.  Cottoy, Hollins and McInnis are all superb options that will make up for Hatchers’ absence.  B.C. is also missing an O-line starter as newcomer Schleuger is out.  They are hopeful Couture (from the Bombers) can mesh with his old teammate Chungh on this years’ O-line.

It is sort of traditional to go with the under for at least the first couple of games of the season as defences are ahead of the offences but both of these squads look ready to put up points; especially BC.  That would be the easy play but the hot play is BC to cover the spread by winning the game.

Bobrovsky is going to start.  I agree he deserves at least this but it sure looks like Vegas has figured him out;  screen him and shoot high to the opposite side as he tries to peek around the screen.  Remember, in their last 12 games Vegas has seen the opposing goalie pulled 5 times.  At the other end of the rink, Aidan Hill looks fresh, unflappable and dialed in.  The Panthers can’t screen him to the same extent with all those huge defenders on the Knights’ blueline (6’6’, 6’4”, 6’3”, 6’2” x2, and tiny 6’1’ 209 lb Martinez) boxing them out.

In their last 10 games Vegas has averaged 4.2 goals for and 2.1 goals against while the Panthers are at 2.4 and 2.6 respectively. 

On the injury front Gudas is probable but really?  He was already hurt and that hit staggered him.  His replacement, Fitzgerald exposed the lack of depth on the Panthers’ blueline.  Karlsson is probable with an illness for the Golden Knights. 

The discipline issue is real for the Panthers.  They have had to kill 32 penalties these playoffs compared to 23 for the Golden Knights.  Vegas’ powerplay has come alive at an inopportune time for the Panthers.

The key stat for Vegas though is their ability to play lockdown hockey on the road even when the other team has last change.  The are 32-8 on the road while the Panthers are an OK but less remarkable 27-16 at home.  Vegas has lost only two on the road these playoffs.  Following a win this season Vegas is 26-9 on the road.

It all adds up to taking Vegas on the Money Line.

After a blow-out loss, the Panthers slink back to Florida for game three.  Location was highly significant for the Panthers in the regular season:  they were a .500 club on the road, and much better at home.  The Knights were actually a better on the road than at home this year.  They played a very different style, tight-checking and composed, and the totals reflected this.  The Panthers are now at critical mass and absolutely must play with more discipline and composure, limiting penalties.  They have had a couple of days of soul-searching.  Vegas, with solid defense and goal-tending from Hill, has been able to limit the Panthers' quality scoring chances.  I believe this will continue on Thursday.  I also believe that the Panthers will rebound and find their composure.  They'll have the final change, so with the right personnel on the ice, perhaps they can cool off the Eichel, Marchessault, Barbashev line.  Look for the return of the Florida forecheck, and a better game from Bobrovsky.  The Total has climbed to six.  Take the Under on Thursday. 10* Playoff TOY