The set-up: The Wings are off to a successful 3-2 start, but they're off a terrible 5-2 loss at home to the Leafs. The Wings start their Western swing in Vancouver and they'll be looking to get the trip started off quickly. Red Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard had his hands full with the Leafs high-powered attack, but now he faces the Canucks' anemic offense. 

The pick: Vancouver is now 2-2 after holding on for a 3-2 shootout win over the Flyers in its last outing. So far Vancouver netminder Jacob Markstrom has shone in the early going, as he comes in with a solid .926 save percentage and 2.23 GAA. I think these two non-conference teams which struggle to score at times play to a low-scoring under on Tuesday night. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Wings/Nucks.

The set-up: I had the Cards in Game 3. Clearly I'm surprised at the lack of production from St. Louis right now. Washington is on the verge of moving onto the World Series, but I think the feisty visiting side avoids the sweep and notches at least one victory in this series. At the very least, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Daniel Hudson goes for the visitors, while Patrick Corbin goes for the home side. 

The pitchers: Hudson (16-7, 3.55 ERA) looked sharp in his only start in the post-season, holding the Braves to one run over five innings.

Corbin (14-7, 3.25) took back-to-back losses vs. the Dodgers in the NLDS, before having a pair of short no-decisions.

The pick: Now or never. Do or die. Corbin has been volatile and Hudson has been solid. I'm banking on the visitors on keeping this one alive for one more game.

10* U OF U (B OF B) on the Cardinals RUN LINE.

The set-up: The Lightning are 2-2-1 this season, while the Habs are 2-1-2. Andre Vasilevskiy is the starter in net for TB, while Carey Price gets the nod for the home side. The Bolts have beaten up on the Eastern Conference at a prodigious rate over the last three years, but now teams can smell the blood in the water. The Lightning come to town looking very beatable, most recently falling 4-2 on the road in Ottawa, its third setback in their  last four games. 

The pick: Montreal broke a two-game slide with a resounding 6-3 win over the defending champion Blues. The Habs are well rested and they have the Wild coming to town on Thursday night. Montreal has struggled with poor starts in each of the past two seasons, but it comes in healthy to this one and I expect it to pour it on here as it looks to kick this floundering Lighting team while its down. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Montreal Canadiens. 

The set-up: Houston lost 7-0 in Game 1, before then rebounding with a 3-2 extra innings effort in Game 2. With the shift in venue, I'm finally expecting a higher-scoring game here. The Astros were 47-26 on the road this year, but they lost both road games to the Rays. Clearly they'll be out to end that trend. Gerrit Cole gets the nod for the visitors, while Louis Severino toes the slab for the home side. 

The pitchers: Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) has been exceptional this season and so far in the playoffs, but I think he finally takes a step back here. Note that he's 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts vs. the Yanks. 

Severino (1-1, 1.50) is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts. 

The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" in 35 of its last 60 after two or more consecutive home games, while New York has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 21 after allowing three runs or less in four straight games. The Yanks have to be thrilled with the split they earned over the first two games and now they're in the drivers seat. I think this one creeps over this tiny number once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Astros/Yankees.

The set-up: Detroit is 2-1-1 and Green Bay is 4-1. The Lions have looked decent on both sides of the ball, with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and nearly getting by the Chiefs last time out. Green Bay smoked the Cowboys in Dallas last weekend, but after the Cowboys lost to the Jets yesterday, I'm taking that victory with a proverbial "grain of salt." Detroit also comes in focussed and healthy after its bye week. 

The pick: The Lions defense has been impressive, shutting down Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, while also holding Patrick Mahomes without a TD. Green Bay has been terrific defensively as well, so I'll call that department a "wash." I think that Lions' veteran QB Matt Stafford has enough tricks up his sleeve to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company. In a game which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: It wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win this game. Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals are evenly matched. I simply feel that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Nationals, while I look for the more "desperate" team to find a way to get the job done here. 

The pick: Additionally note that the numbers work in our favor here as well, with St. Louis having gone 43-26 (+10.9 units) this season after two or more consecutive home games, while Washington is just 11-13 (-2.5 units) this season at home with a money ine in the +125 to -125 range. Essentially "do or die" for St. Louis here.

10* BLOWOUT BEATDOWN on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The set-up: I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance here as I expect this game to be decided late, or even in extra time or the shootout. Philip Grubauer is 3-0-0 with a 2.34 GAA for the Avs, while Braden Holtby is 1-1-2 with a 3.67 GAA for the Capitals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is 7-1 in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price and grab the visitors with the spread.

6* play on the Avs PUCK-LINE.

The set-up: The Panthers are 1-4. The Devils are 0-5. Who do you think this game means more too? Clearly both teams are desperate for a victory, but I think the Devils have the advantage, based entirely upon the home ice factor. Florida averages 2.60 GPG and it allows 3.60. NJ is averaging 1.80 GPG and allowing 4.20. 

The pick: Both teams are terrible, but note that the favorite is 19-7 the last 26 in this series and the home team is 20-7 the last 27. Also note that Florida is just 2-7 in its last nine on the road. I'm banking on a decisive home win here.

8* play on the New Jersey Devils.

The set-up: These are two defensive minded clubs and I'm expecting a very low-scoring defensive battle. St. Louis is 3-2 and New York is 2-3. St. Louis will be particularly focussed here after getting killed 6-3 in Montreal in their latest outing. The Isles most recently beat the Panthers 3-2. 

The pick: Despite the slip-up vs. Montreal, Jordan Binnington is still 2-1-1 with a 2.97 GAA. Semyon Varlamov is 1-2 with a 3.15 GAA this season and he comes off his first victory of the year, stopping 35 of 37 shots. I think the early start is a detriment to the offensive players and I look for these two World Class goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the under Blues/Islanders.

The set-up: Calgary was detroyed 6-2 in Vegas just last night and I think it'll have its hands full with this rested and focussed home side. The Sharks are just 1-4, but they finally punched their first win of the season in a victory over the Hawks in their last matchup. 

The pick: San Jose is now back home and it's rested and ready to make a statement. Note that key players Evander Kane and Patrick Marleau weren't even playing during its 0-3 start to the season. But they're now both back on the ice tonight. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for San Jose as it looks to bounce back from its slow start and take advantage of this road weary Flames side. All things considered, I call this the very definition of great line value.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on the San Jose Sharks.

The set-up: The Steelers are 1-4 and the Chargers are 2-3. This is a "must win" game for both teams. But I like Philip Rivers and company on their own soil here. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 33-30 in Pittsburgh last season. Both teams enter off losses. Pittsburgh' backup QB Mason Rudolph suffered a concussion last weekend and he's listed as doubtful here. While the Pittsburgh defense picked off Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson three times last week, I don't expect that kind of sloppy play from Rivers at home and after last weekend's poor 20-13 loss at home. 

The pick: The Chargers have actually been quite stingy defensively, allowing only 334.8 total yards of offense per game. Pittsburgh allows 229.8 passing yards per game, but now they'll have to deal with LA RB Melvin Gordon, who has finally returned from his holdout. Too many question marks surrounding Pittsburgh here, while the conditions are unquestionably correct for a big bounce back for LA in my opinion. Lay the points with confidence.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Chargers.

The set-up: Tennessee is 2-3 and Denver is 1-4. Most likely neither team will see the playoffs. That said, each still has a shot if they can win this game today. This is an important game for both sub-.500 teams and as such, I look for more of a wide open affair. Last week the Titans lost 14-7 to the stingy BIlls. The Broncos saved their season (mathematically) with a 20-13 road win over the Chargers this past Sunday and I expect them to build off that performance with their best effort at home so far. 

The pick: Both teams are ranked in the lower half on the offensive side of the ball, but I think that Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota push the pace of this one on the road, similar to their Week 1 destruction of the Cleveland Browns. Joe Flacco and Phillip Linday come off their best performance for the Broncos and there's no reason not to think that they won't be given the green light here as well. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road dog of 7 points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. The situation points to this total flying over this low number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Titans/Broncos.

The set-up: LA opened the year 3-0, but it's since 0-2. San Francisco enters are 4-0 after Monday's destruction of the Browns at home. I've been surprised by the 49ers so far, but I have a hard time seeing the team maintaining this level of play, especially vs. this now hungry Rams team, which comes in off a last second controversial loss to another division rival Seattle just last week. 

The pick: Despite their recent issues, the Rams' offense still ranks sixth in the league. Additionally note that San Fran is a poor 0-2 ATS in its last two after playing on MNF, while LA is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a divisional contest. I think the "hungrier" team finds a way to get the job done in this one.

8* play on the LA Rams.

The set-up: Cleveland fell flat on Monday Night Football in San Francisco, but it still has a very genuine shot at competing for the division crown if it can string a few wins together. First things first is Seattle, which comes off a thrilling victory over the Rams at home. Seattle's weakness the last few years has been its play on the road and while the victory over LA looks impressive on paper, the Rams have looked plain terrible this season. This is a trap game for Seattle and it has to be careful to not look past its hungry opponent.

The pick: Baker Mayfield and the Browns are better team when they run the ball and try to control things while on offense. It's when they're playing from behind or trying to be too fancy that the Browns struggle. I expect a very conservative style of play from the home side today as it looks to once again limit its stupid mistakes. Note that Seattle has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 13 as a home dog. This number is high, play the under.

8* play on the under Hawks/Browns.

The set-up: A trip across the pond is going to lead to a lower-scoring under in this one. This is the second meeting of the season between the divisional foes and in the first one the Bucs won a low-scoring 20-14 affair. Tampa comes in off a loss to New Orleans by a score of 31-24, while the Panthers have won three in a row since losing to the Bucs. The Panthers have been getting exceptional play from QB Kyle Allen, but I think the rookie will be more effected by anyone on this trip to London. Look for Carolina to once again lean heavily on RB Christian McCaffrey, who in fact leads the league right now with 587 rushing yards and 31 catches for 279 yards. Also note that the Panthers have been great defensively since the loss to Tampa, posting 16 sackes over their last three games. 

 The pick: Tampa's pass defense has been terrible, which was completely evident in last week's loss to the Saints and Teddy Bridgewater. The Bucs though do rank second against the run, a unit which is clearly going to be tested early and often today by McCaffrey. The Panthers only average 264 yards per game through the air, so Tampa's porous secondary catches a break today. When you add up all of the above factors, the savvy call in this one is on the under in my opinion. 

8* play on the under Panthers/Bucs.

The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU.

The set-up: It's Masahiro Tanaka vs. Zack Greinke in the opener of the ALCS and I like the home side to deliver the goods in this one. 

The pitchers: Tanaka was 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA in the regular season. While he's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his last three outings, note that he's 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros, including 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in four career matchups at Minute Maid Park.

Greinke was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA in the regular season. He's 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts. He's 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. the Yanks. Note that Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 13 career starts at home.

The verdict: It's interesting to note that the Astros are 42-13 in their last 55 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game, while the Yanks are only 1-5 in their last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. I give Greinke the nod on the bump this evening and in my opinion, that's the difference in Game 1. All things considered, I feel that this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: I like 4-2 Nebraska to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 5-0 Golden Gophers. This is a big opportunity for the Huskers, who have two by weeks, bookended around two games vs. bottom feeders Purdue and Indiana. Nebraska has plenty of talent in RB Wan'Dale Robinson and QB Adrian Martinez. Note that Martinez leads the team in passing and rushing. 

The pick: Nebraska hammered Minnesota last year and I think the stage is set for an upset here as well. I think the Gophers 5-0 start is due to a weak schedule. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has 13 TD's and three INT's, but both RB Mohamed Ibrahim and Cam Wiley are listed as questionable. Note as well that Minnesota is a poor 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 following an ATS victory, while the Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning SU home record. I like Martinez to keep his team in this game. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Nebraska

The set-up: The Leafs are 2-2-1 and they'll be looking for a much better defensive performance here in my estimation after getting embarrassed 7-3 at home by Tampa Bay most recently. Previous to that the Leafs lost 6-5 in a shootout to the Habs and 3-2 to the Blues. Toronto goaltender Frederick Anderson is now 2-2-0 with a 3.75 GAA. Anderson has to be feeling confident here though as he's 7-1 with a 2.60 GAA lifetime vs. Detroit. 

The pick: Detroit won't be rolling over though. The Red Wings enter at 3-1, most recently taking down the Ducks 3-1. Netminder  Jonathan Bernier (2-0-0 on the year with a 2.50 GAA and a .912 save percentage) made 33 saves. There's been plenty of scoring for these two teams in the early going, but I believe the stage is now set for more of a defensive affair. I'm on the under.

10* TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Leafs/Wings.

The set-up: I think Kent State will bounce back big here after last week's tough 48-0 loss at Wisconsin. And who better to beat up on the lowly 0-5 Akron? The Zips tried their hardest last week, but ultimately succummbed 37-29 to UMass. 

The pick: The Golden Flashes have plenty of skilled players though, so keep your eyes on RB Jo-El Shaw, who has 300 yards rushing and two TD's. WR Isaiah McCoy has 21 catches and and three TD's. Akron averages only 14 PPG and it concedes over 30. The Zips are alos just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with losing records, while the Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 points or more in their previous outing. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

8* SMACK-DOWN on Kent State.

The set-up: The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-4 and they're down to their third string QB. They won't be lacking for motivation here though. Last week Rutgers lost 48-7 to Maryland. Overall the Knights average only 14.2 PPG, while allowing 36.2. 

The pick: But I think the well rested Hoosiers get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today to their back to back road games at Maryland and Nebraska respectively. Last year Rugers lost this game 24-17 and I'm expecting a similar final here as well. Lastly not that Rutger is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after playing two straight conference games, while Indiana is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after one or more consecutive victories ATS (lost 40-31 to MSU two weeks ago, but easily covered with the large spread.) The stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this line would suggest.

9* PLAY-BOOK on Rutgers.

The set-up: Purdue is only 1-4 and it's off a big loss to Penn State. It's now or never for the Boilermakers if they have any shot at a late Bowl push. Maryland's been all over the place with its consistency this year, but it enters at 3-2. The Terps hammered the Orange 63-20, but since then they lost to Temple and then got destroyed 59-0 by Penn State. Maryland then responded with a 48-7 victory over a hurting Rutgers team. UPDATE: a big blow to Maryland today is that starting QB Josh Jackson is out with a high ankle sprain and back up Tyrell Pigrome is in.

The pick: Jeff Brohm is a great coach and the Boilermakers were supposed to be better than this this year. But here we are. Jake Plummer suffered seven sacks last week vs. the Nittany Lions, but he definitely catches a break at home this weekend. Note as well that Maryland is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 road games, while Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more conseuctive SU losses. The outright is possible obviously, but let's great the points.

9* SITUATIONAL SMOKE-JOB on Purdue. 

The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon.

The set-up: St. Louis posted a 5-2 record vs. the Nats this year. But I think that Washington's Anibal Sanchez is the correct all in this matchup. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas. 

The pitchers: Sanchez held the hard-hitting Dodgers to one run over five innings in his team's Game 3 win in the NLDS. Note that over 48.1 innings of playoff work Sanchez has a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. 

Mikolas conceded just one run over five innings to the Braves in his Game 1 start. Note that he has a 2-2 record and a 4.95 ERA in 26 career innings vs. the Nationals.

The pick: The Nats were 2-1 at Chavez Ravine and I think they continue their success on the road to open this series as well. Addtionally note that St. Louis is a poor 1-5 in its last six vs. right-handed starters, while Washington is a sharp 8-1 in its last nine vs. right-handed starters. I like Sanchez to continue his stellar play and for the surging visitors to pull off the slight upset in Game 1.

10* BONANZA on the Nationals.

The set-up: I think rest leads to rust for 4-1 Virginia, which had its bye week last weekend after its loss to Notre Dame. Miami Florida comes in off a 42-35 shootout loss to Virginia Tech. Note as well that this is a big time revnege game for the Hurricanes after the Hoos beat Miami 16-13 in Charlottesville. Virginia' QB Bryce Perkins was sacked eight times by the Irish and I believe the pivot will have his hands full again here as well. 

The pick: This has essentially turned into a "must win" game for 2-3 Miami, which his 0-3 vs. Power 5 programs. Yes Miami spotted VT a 28-0 lead, but after that the Hurricanes completely outplayed the Hokies in last week's setback. Despite giving up 42 points to Tech (from five turnovers from the offense), the Hurricanes are STILL only allowing 21.2 PPG. Note as well that Virginia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. I think the hungrier/desperate revenge-minded home-side delivers the goods.

10* play on Miami Florida.

The set-up: This is a "must win" game for Colorado State if it plans to have any shot at a bowl berth at the end of the season. The Rams come to town off a poor 24-10 home loss to SDSU. New Mexico State enters having lost two straight, most recently a 32-21 setback to San Jose State. 

The pick: The Rams allow 36.5 PPG, but the Lobos concede 39.6. Colorado State has a decent QB in Patrick O' Brien, while New Mexico's offense is a complete disaster. Lobos' RB Ahmari Davis can't get the job done by himself today and I believe the home side is going to fade down the stretch. Note that the Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six following SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, the putrid Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive victory for CSU.

8* play on Colorado State.

The set-up: The Jackets got back on track with a win over a dangerous Buffalo team, which snapped a two-game slide last time out and I believe they're going to make the most of this one, before they have to hit the road themselves. Anaheim had a terrible season last year (injuries was the main reason), so establishing a quick start this season was paramount for it. The Ducks started off 3-0, but the wheels finally came off the bus in a 2-1 setback on Pittsburgh just last night. WIth a couple nights off after this before finally returning home to The Pond, I do definitely feel that this sets up as a massive trap/letdown for the visiting side. 

The pick: CBJ won't be "looking past" this opportunity, as it does indeed hit the road for a difficult trip up next. Additionally note that the Ducks are just 10-13 in their last 23 when playing on back-to-back days, while the Blue Jackets are 8-4 in their last 12 when playing with three days rest. Overwhelming situational factors and a favorable line make Columbus the correct call here.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright victory. New York has several injuries and is a big underdog for a reason. The Patriots and Tom Brady continue to roll and come into this one undefeated. New England's defense is dominating as well. I simply feel though that the Pats are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today, leaving the backdoor open just enough to allow the hungry visiting side to sneak in down the stretch. The Giants had their two-game win streak snapped in last week's 28-10 home loss to the Vikes, while the Pats enter off a 33-7 road win over the Skins. 

The pick: Daniel Jones is no Brady, but he's been a lot better than Eli Manning (760 yards, four TD's and three INT's.) Brady had 348 yards, three TD's and an INT last week, but he was also sacked four times. While the Giants offense is banged up, the defense is actually a strenght of the team now (13 sacks and five INT's.) With the Jets up next weekend, I think the Patriots come out and get caught looking ahead to that one as well. As stated off the top, clearly I'm not calling for the outright win, but I do expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Both teams are 3-2. Both are 0-1 in ACC action. Both are also coming out of their respective bye weeks. Syracuse is led by QB Tommy DeVito, who has 1,234 passing yards and 11 TD's (eight in the last two games.) The Orange defense has been decent, having posted 12 forced turnovers.  

The pick: NC State comes out of its bye week with a new face under center in Bailey Hockman, who is a four star FSU transfer. For his career he's 28 of 50 for 255 yards, one TD and one INT. Also note that the Wolf Pack will be without RB Ricky Person, as well as OT Justin Witt. Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while the Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse.

The set-up: Do I think that the Astros are a better team than the Rays? I do. However, Tampa Bay has not been an "easy out" in this series and in an "one and done" scenario, I think the value swings to the hungry dog. Just look at what Washington did for us late in that one last night?! 

The pick: I think Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) and Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50) are a "wash," which once again I believe then swings the value in clear favor of the underdog in a pressure packed situation like this. This play is based upon the fact that I believe the Astros are vastly over-priced in this one. I think the Rays are absolutely worth a shot at this price and with a play of this magnitude. 

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Tampa Bay Rays.

The set-up: These two teams are known for their offensive explosiveness, but the Bolts come to Toronto sitting at 1-2, while the hosts are just 2-2. Tampa will be wary here as it fell 4-3 to Florida, before then losing 4-3 to Carolina. The goods news for TB fans is that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is 10-5-1 with a 2.27 GAA lifetime vs. the Leafs. 

The pick: Toronto will also be "clamping" down as it looks to get back into the winners circle, as a 6-5 shootout loss to the Habs was followed by a 3-2 loss to the Blues. Both games at home. Leafs goaltender Fredrick Anderson is only 3-9-1 with a 3.69 GAA vs. the Lightning lifetime, but note that Toronto has seen the total dip under the number in 17 of its last 27 when playing with two days rest. Considering the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, I'm banking on more of a tightly checked defensive affair. 

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the Bolts/Leafs UNDER.

The set-up: Anaheim was hampered by injury last year and it suffered through a terrible campaign. The Ducks have gotten out to a quick start this season though with 3-0 record thus far. The Penguins are just 1-2 and this is the final game of their home stand. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the Pens. The Ducks come in complacent, the home side enters focussed. 

The pick: Additionally take into account Anaheim's wins, which have come over the Coyotes, Sharks and Red Wings. Yes Pittsburgh is dealing with some early injury issues (Malkin), but that's just part of the game. The season is young and Sid The Kid and Matt Murray are still fresh. I think the home side makes adjustments and then makes the most of this favorable home spot. Lay the price.

10* BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: The Kings are now 1-1 after defeating the Flames 4-3 just last night in Calgary. Vancouver though is 0-2 and I believe the home side is going to risk life and limb today as it looks to get off the schneid and to record a victory here in front of the home town crowd. LA's Jon Quick is 0-1 with a 6.19 GAA

The pick: Vancouver was blanked 3-0 by the Flames last time out, despite directing 33 pucks on the net. Canucks' netminder Jacob Markstrom looked good too in defeat, allowing two goals in 29 shots. Note as well that the Canucks are 7-2 in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while the Kings are just 2-6 in their last eight road games when playing the second game of a back to back and in which they scored four or more goals in a victory in the first. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Vancouver Canucks.

The set-up: This has been an entertaining NLCS. Competitive. I believe that the final contest will also prove to be a war until the end. So in a game which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. 

The pitchers: Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) was 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 starts on the road this year. Note that he's 3-2 with a minuscule 0.64 ERA in five games in the playoffs in his career, which includes going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two games this season. 

Buehler (14-4, 3.26) was 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts at home this season and he's 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career postseason starts. 

The pick: I think Washington has stolen the momentum in this series. The Nats have the more experirenced hurler on the mound to start this one as well. While the outright win isn't out of the question obviously, in the end I'm grabbing the red hot Nationals on the run line.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Nationals run-line.

The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State.  App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette.

The set-up: Boston is 2-0. Las Vegas is 2-0. These two undefeated non-conference powerhouses collide on Tuesday night and in my opinoin, it's going to be the men between the pipes who become the main storyline's in tomorrow's summaries. Las Vegas hammered the Sharks by a combined score of 9-2 to open the year, while the Bruins have beaten Dallas and Arizona. Last year the Bruins ranked No. 2 in defense and that's been the story early on as well this year. I have a hard time seeing the Knights mustering up much offense here vs. the red hot Tuukka Rask. 

The pick: Not to be outdone though, Las Vegas netminder Marc Andre Fleury has also been extremely sharp in the early going, allowing just the two goals so far. Note that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 30 when playing with two days rest, while Vegas has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. This number is high.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bruins/Knights.

The set-up:  This is a big game for both non-conference opponents. The Jets are just 1-2, but I think the visitors are going to get caught "looking ahead" to their upcoming home and first home stretch of the season. The Jets looked poor in the 4-1 loss to the Islanders and I have a hard time seeing the team mustering much of an offensive attack tonight either. The visitors are expected to start Connor Hellebuyck, who is 0-1 with a 5.07 GAA after a 6-4 loss to the Rangers in regulation. 

The pick: The Pens looked flat in their opener, but great in their second game vs. the Blue Jackets, destroying them 7-2. Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray stopped 28 of 30 shots and he's now 1-1 with a 2.55 GAA. Note that the Pens are a sharp 116-54 in their last 170 as a home favorite, while the Jets are a poor 2-8 in their last ten vs. the Eastern Conference. I'm expecting a decisive lop-sided destruction, so lay the price.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: It's do or die for the Twins as they return home down 0-2. Minnesota was great at home this season and while I do think the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in a game which I envistion being decided late or in extra frames, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side counters with Jake Odorizzi.

The pitchers: Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) is 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA on the road this year. Note that he's 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in six postseason starts and he's 0-1 with a 4.57 ERA in two career starts vs. Minnesota.

Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51) is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 15 starts at home this year. He's 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA in 18 games vs. the Yanks and this is his first postseason appearance.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is a poor 8-10 (-6.3 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Minnesota is 15-6 (+11 units) this season when playing with double revenge with two straight losses vs. an opponent.

10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Twins on the RUN-LINE.

TThe set-up: The Browns hit the West Coast looking to pull off the slight upset and in my opinion, they definitely have a legitimate shot at doing just that. The 49ers are 3-0, but they've been off since a win over the Steelers in Week 3. Cleveland is 2-2 and it enters off its best performance of the sason, smashing the Ravens 40-25. It took a few games for the Browns' offense to find its footing, but I have no reason not to believe that it can't continue to progress each week. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had 165 yards and three TD's, while QB Baker Mayfield had 342 passing yards and a TD.

The pick: Jimmy Garapollo had 277 yards passing, a TD and an INT in his victory over the lowly Steelers, but note that the Browns concede just 215.2 YPG through the air. Additionally note that San Fran is a terrible 0-6 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while the Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road game vs. a team with a winnng home record. Grab the points.

10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns

The set-up: Buffalo is 2-0 and Columbus is 0-2. Despite losing many key players over the off-season and not being the same team as they were last year, I believe the Blue Jackets buckle down here and find a way to get the job done vs. the over-achieving Sabres. Carter Hutton has looked great early for Buffalo, but I believe he'll have his hands full here vs. the focused Columbus side.

The pick: Joonas Korpisalo has a big opportunity here to help his team earn its first win. Note though that Columbus has in fact done extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 34-17 (+13.6 units) following a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. Buffalo on the other hand is a terrible 16-33 (-13.5 units) in its last 39 after scoring four or more goals in its previous game. Great value on the desperate home side.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The set-up: The Colts are 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0. KC managed a 34-30 road win in Detroit last time out, while Indianapolis got caught looking ahead to this game after last week’s upset loss at home to the Raiders. I think a similar thing is going to happen here to the now content home side and while I’m not predicting any outright upsets or anything, I do think that the Chiefs come out and try to “control” this one, rather than run their opponent off the field with a frantic pace from start to finish. And clearly Jacoby Brissett and company can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to beat the high-flying Chiefs at their own style of game. Instead, the visitors will also definitely be out to “control” this contest while on offense. So from an overall situational stand point, there’s no question non my mind that this one sets up as more of a defensive chess match, than a wide open shootout. 

The pick: However also note that Indy has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 after one or more SU losses, while KC has seen the total dip under the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite of ten points or more. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Colts/Chiefs.

The set-up: The Jets lost their opener 6-4 to the Rangers, and then needed a shootout to beat the Devils 5-4. The Jets are dealing with a rash of injuries and with transition to their core line-up after off-season moves. The Islanders are also dealing with new faces, but after dropping their home opener to the Capitals, I expect the home side to buckle down here and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

The pick: Jets’ goaltender Connor Hellebuyck allowed five goals in the loss to the Rangers. New York will turn to Thomas Greiss in this one, last year he was 23-14-2 with a 2.28 GAA. Note that the Ises are 4-1 in their last five vs. the Western Conference, while the Jets are just 2-6 in their last eight vs. the East. Greiss is in a fight for the No. 1 spot in net and I believe he’ll be the difference maker for the home side tonight. Lay the very reasonable price.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the New York Islanders.

The set-up: Both teams enter off their first losses of the year. Green Bay has had some extra time off to prepare for this one though after playing on Thursday night Football. Green Bay had a shot at beating the Eagles, but QB Aaron Rodgers threw an INT on the three-yard line (lost 34-27.) You can’t win them all though, but the good news for Packers fans is that the defense has so far been great, ranked seventh in the league in allowing only 17.2 PPG (last year the defense allowed 25 per contest.) 

The pick: The Cowboys looked pretty ordinary in their 12-10 loss on the road in New Orleans vs. a Drew Brees-less Saints side. I’ll argue that the Cowboys are 3-1 right now because of a weak schedule. Also note that the Cowboys took a major hit on the injury front by losing their two best offensive lineman in Zack Martin and Tyron Smith (both questionable this weekend.) Green Bay is 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing on a Thursday game, while Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game. I’m grabbing the points.

9* SITUATIONAL ATS SMOKE-JOB on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: The Cards took Game 1 by a score of 7-6, before the Braves answered with a 3-0 win in Game 2. Game 1 could have gone either way. Game 2 was decisive from start to finish. Mike Soroka gets the nod for the visitors, while Adam Wainwright gets the call for the home side. 

The pitchers: Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA) faced the Cards twice this year and dominated in both games, going seven scoreless in the first and then holding them to two runs over six frames in the second. Note that Soroka was 7-1 with a 1.55 ERA on the road this year as well. 

Wainwright (14-10, 4.19) gave up five runs over four innings in a 10-2 loss (his only matchup this season) to the Braves this year. 

The pick: The Braves average 5.28 RPG this year. The Cardinals average 4.72. St. Louis is 0-4 in its last four vs. a right-handed starter, while ATL is 20-8 this year following a victory. I  think Soroka and the hard-hitting visiting side a “steal” at this price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: This is a big game for both division rivals. The Ravens are 2-2 and the Steelers are 1-3. Baltimore enters off a loss to the Browns, while the Steelers enter off a 27-3 home win over the Bengals. I think that Baltimore is the much more focused side today though after losing two straight, while everything points to an immediate return to mediocrity for the Steelers in my opinion. 

The pick: Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph did enough to earn the win vs. the lowly Bengals last week and RB James Conner also had a big night statistically, but previous to that each had struggled up to that point. And now they face a veteran Ravens defense which is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Note that Pitts is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten Sunday following a MNF contest, while Baltimore is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points.

8* EARLY DESTRUCTION on the Baltimore Ravens.

The set-up: The Raiders continue their five week road journey with a “home” game in London England vs. the Bears today. After winning three straight, I think the Bears’ chemistry takes a hit here with the jump across the pond. It’s not going to be easy on the Raiders obviously either, but at 2-2 the team can’t afford to look past the 3-1 Bears today. Also note that two of Chicago’s last three victories have come over the Broncos and Redskins. Last week Chicago held on for a 16-6 win over the Vikings. 

The pick: A big blow to the Bears as well is the loss of starting QB Mitchell Trubisky to injury, meaning that Chase Daniel will make his fifth start on Saturday. The Raiders looked a lot better in their 31-24 win over the surging Colts on the road last weekend I don’t see any reason not to think that the team can’t build off that performance. Oakland QB Derek Carr was 23 of 31 for 189 yards and two TD’s and I expect the veteran to push the pace early. Everything points to a letdown here for the Bears in my opinion. That said, let’s grab the points.

9* SUPER SHOCKER on the Oakland Raiders.

The set-up: The Cardinals are 0-3 and the Bengals are 0-4. Both teams have an ultra slim shot at even making the playoffs after their respective poor starts, but I still think that a healthy Cardinals team has much more in the tank than their reeling opponent. Arizona has played some incredibly difficult teams to open the year and it’s remained/looked competitive. The Bengals have been a train wreck and Cards’ QB Kyler Murray will finally have time to operate this afternoon. 

The pick: The Bengals lost 27-3 to the Steelers on Monday Night Football, as veteran QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 27 for 171 yards, zero TD’s, one INT and eight sacks. Note that Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Cards a solid 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road contests. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Arizona Cardinals.

The set-up: Washington is 4-1 and Stanford is 2-3. The Huskies only loss cam to Cal in Week 2. Last week the Huskies beat USC, but QB Jacob Eason was only 16 of 26 for 180 yards and no TD’s. Stanford and head coach David Shaw have an uncharacteristically difficult start to the season, but they come in off a solid 31-28 Pac 12 win over Oregon State and I think the home side carries that momentum over here:

“The last three weeks have been tough,” said Shaw recently. “They’ve been really tough. We played against really good teams two of them on the road in very difficult environments.”

The pick: Stanford backup QB David Mills replaced KJ Costello, who has a thumb injury, and he went 18 for 25 for 245 yards and three TD’s last week. Look for this steadily improving Cardinal side to keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest. 

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford.

The set-up: Both teams fell in their respective season openers, with the Stars falling at home to the Bruins, while the Blues lost at home to the Capitals. Last year the Stars had the 28th offense in the NHL, averaging only 2.55 GPG, and after falling 2-1 in their opener, it definitely appears as if the offense is still “stuck in neutral.” Dallas goaltender Ben Bishop allowed two goals on 20 shots in the Stars’ opening night loss. 

The pick: The Blues finished 15th in the NHL last year on offense with 2.98 GPG. St. Louis actually had a 2-0 lead at one point over Washington, before collapsing and falling 3-2. Goaltender Jordan Binnington was solid in the setback, making 31 saves on 34 attempts. Additionally note that the Blues are 4-1 in their last five after scoring two goals or less in their previous game, while Dallas is 0-4 in its last four after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price.

10* EXPRESS on the St. Louis Blues.

The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. 

The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State.

The set-up: Washington has come out and won back-to-back road games to open the season, beating the Blues on opening night and the Islanders in Long Island just last night. Now the Capitals return home for their first home game of the year. Carolina on the other hand beat the Montreal Canadiens at home in a shootout in its opener. Petr Mrazek was 23-14-3 last year with a 2.39 GAA. Mrazek was excellent vs. the Habs in the opener, posting 33 saves and while he lost both games vs. the Capitals last year, he posted a sharp 2.56 GAA in the setbacks. 

The pick: Washington has a top five offense, but after last night’s contest I expect more of a methodical pace from the Capitals here. Note that Washington goaltender Braden Holtby was 4-0 vs. the Hurricanes last year, posting a tiny 2.21 GAA in the process. I believe the stage is set for a classic goaltenders battle in this one. This number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Hurricanes/Capitals.

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But I do think that the 4-0 Penn State Lions get caught “looking past” their lowly 1-3 opponent. The Boilermakers have struggled to this point. While they haven’t played since 2016, I still think its worthy to point out that Purdue has lost eight straight in the series. After smashing Maryland 59-0 last weekend, would anyone fault the Nittany Lions for having a bit of a mental lapse vs. Purdue at home? Purdue won’t be going down without a fight, last week it fell 38-31 to Minnesota. 

The pick: From an overall “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up great for the hungry Boilermakers. Clearly the Nittany Lions are the “better” team, but I think this is a classic “trap.” Also note that Purdue is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Penn State is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

8* pick on Purdue.

The set-up: Obviously the outright upset isn’t out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. Both Tulane and Army are 3-1. Tulane though I think is set up for a letdown here after its emotional come from behind win at home over Houston last weekend (was down 28-7 in the second half and it was decide by a 53 yard TD strike from QB Justin McMillan to WR Jalen McCleskey as time wound off the clock in regulation.) Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Army enters off back-to-back wins, but won’t be taking anything for granted here after demolishing the Morgan State Bears last weekend, behind a career-best day from RB Connor Slomka. 

The pick: Tulane’s offense is going to be put to the test here vs. Army’s 15th ranked overall defense which concedes 16.3 PPG. Army is a sharp 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following a bye week, while Tulane is a poor 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with a winning home record. For all the reasons listed above, I’m on the Golden Knights.

8* pick on Army.

The set-up: I’m of course not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. More than anything though, I think the Badgers get caught “looking past” their final non-conference opponent of the season this afternoon. Two weeks ago the Golden Flashes smashed Bowling Green 62-20 and in that contest QB Dustin Crum was 26 of 31 for 310 yards and three TD’s. Wisconsin followed up a statement win over No. 19 Michigan by pulling away for a lacklustre 24-15 victory over Northwestern. 

The pick: Kent State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog of 21.5 or more points, while Wisconsin is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points. This spread is just a little large. Grab the points.

8* pick on Kent State.

The set-up: Iowa is 4-0, while Michigan is 3-1. The Hawkeyes demolished MTSU 48-3 last weekend, while Michigan rebounded from its first loss to smash Rutgers 52-0 last Saturday. This is an ultra important game for both teams and as such, I believe it’s going to be decided by whichever of them has their hands on the ball last. Iowa QB Nate Stanley had 965 passing yards and eight TD’s so far this year and his defense is allowing only 78 rushing yards per game. Michigan dominated last weekend because of its run game, but clearly that strategy isn’t going to work this weekend. 

The pick: The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after playing a home game, while the Wolverines are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine after scoring 37 points or more in their last game. While I do think the outright is possible, in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. 

8* pick on Iowa.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-3. USF has lost two two top 25 teams in Wisconsin and SMU by a margin of 38 points. The Huskies have lost to Illinois, Indiana and UCF by an average mating of 26 points. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive numbers, which makes the home field advantage that much more important for bettors in my opinion. 

The pick: USF starting QB Blake Barnett is listed as questionable as well. Additionally note that USF is just 6-12 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite, while UConn is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 21 points or more. I’m grabbing all these points.

8* pick on UConn.

The set-up: This is a big Mountain West Conference matchup, as both teams come in at 2-2. San Jose State already suffered a conference loss, falling 41-24 to the Air Force Falcons last week, while this will be New Mexico’s conference opener. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Lobos have to be liking their chances at an upset today, as the last time these teams met, New Mexico pulled way for the 48-41 victory. New Mexico comes in hungry as well after last week’s loss to Liberty. San Jose State averages just 25.1 PPG and New Mexico looked a lot better defensively last week, allowing only 17 points in the setback to Liberty. The Lobos have a QB issue, with Tevaka Tuioti and Sheriron Jones splitting time after the starter went down win injury in Week 1. 

The pick: San Jose State somehow managed a win on the road vs. Arkansas and QB Josh Love is a clear strength of the team. The Spartans though are an absolute disaster defensively, as the unit allows the 11th most yards in all of FBS college football at the moment. Note that New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two straight non-conference games, while San Jose State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a favorite and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 at home. Grab the points and expect a battle.

10* ULTIMATE SUPER SHOCKER on New Mexico.

The set-up: The Leafs skated to a high-scoring 5-3 win on home ice vs. the Senators to open the year, but I think they’ll have much more of a fight on their hands in Columbus on Friday night. Toronto will once again see Fredrich Anderson between the pipes, while the home side goes with Joonas Korpisalo. Note that Toronto was only 1 for 5 on the power play in its victory, but it would kill off all three penalties against it. Anderson looked good after a shaky start, going on to stop 23 of 26 shots. 

The pick: Columbus took out the Lightning in the first round of the playoffs last year, so expectations are high obviously for the home side this season. Columbus though lost a lot of talent to free agency, but Korpisalo was decent in a back-up role for the CBJ’s, going 10-7-3. Columbus is trying to figure out its offense and Toronto has had its fair share of issues on the road. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Leafs/Jackets.

The set-up: The Astros have a huge advantage on the mound. Not only in this game, but in this series. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow, while the home side counters with ace Justin Verlander. 

The pitchers: Glasnow was injured for a big part of this season. He was excellent in September, posting a 1.46 ERA and 21:5 K:BB over 12.1 frames of work. Last year he was 2-7 with a 4.27 ERA. 

Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA) was 10-4 with a 2.34 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Glasnow is just happy to be here: ''This is everything you dream about,'' he said. ''You're a little kid, you think about playing playoff baseball. Now that it's here, it's pretty amazing.''

I’m laying the price and expecting a decisive victory from start to finish as I believe the Rays have a letdown here after their emotional wildcard victory.

6* BLOWOUT on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: I think the home side finds a way to get the job done here. Arizona overachieved last year in my opinion despite missing the playoffs. Arizona struggled with offensive consistency and I don’t think the Phil Kessel pick-up is going to prove to change too much this year.

The pick: Anaheim got off to a terrible start last year and it was never able to rebound. The Ducks though were definitely hampered by injury. A strength of Anaheim was goaltender John Gibson, who finished with a 26-22 record and a 2.84 GAA, despite playing for a team which was dead last in the league in scoring with an average of 2.4 GPG. Again though, that was due directly to several injuries to key players. But that was then and this is now. The Ducks have something to prove this year and they’re 5-1 in their last six at home. Arizona struggled on the road last year and I think it comes out flat in this difficult venue. Lay the reasonable price.

8* play on the Ducks.

The set-up: These are two talented clubs. On both ends of the ice. Both possess World Class goaltending, but each is looking to pick things up on the offensive end this season. I believe that the numbers/trends definitely point to a higher-scoring shootout.  

The pick: As note that Boston has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten games played on the road in October when the total is set at either 5.5 or 6, while Dallas has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 at home when the line in the game is set between -125 and +125. Bank on these two non-conference clubs putting the foot on the gas from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* play on the OVER Bruins/Stars.

The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. I’d consider myself primarily a “situational” handicapper. And that’s definitely the approach I take when looking at Over/unders in all sports. I do indeed feel this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The short week isn’t going to help either team obviously. LA is coming off an atrocious loss to Tampa Bay at home, unable to slow down Jameis Winston and company defensively, while also failing completely on the offensive side. Note that Jared Goff threw three INT’s last week and the run game produced only 23 yards total. Goff threw the ball 62 times! If the Rams have any hopes of getting back on track, clearly they have to establish the run game. 

The pick: Seattle’s three wins have come against the Bengals, Steeler and Cardinals. Are the Rams better than these teams? Probably. Seattle had a complete meltdown at home to New Orleans two weeks ago, so clearly it won’t be looking past or taking anything for granted today facing co-division leading LA this evening. As stated off the top, from an overall “situational” stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a lower-scoring under. But note that the numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that LA has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous game, while Seattle has seen the total go under in four of its last five after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense and to limit its overall mistakes and when also taking into account these strong trends/stats, everything points to the under as the savvy call in this one.

10* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rams/Hawks.

The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the stage is set for a much closer battle than what this spread would suggest. ECU is coming off a 24-21 upset road victory over ODU and I believe the Pirates carry that momentum over here. Temple comes to town off a 24-2 win at home over Georgia Tech. Previous to that though the Owls were upset 38-22 on the road in Buffalo. 

The pick: ECU has won two in a row and three of its last four. The Pirates have been getting strong defensive play as well, allowing only 151.4 YPG, and note that ECU has had to face Navy as well this year. The Owls are a terrible 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while ECU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after playing a non-conference game. Grab the points and sit back and relax on this one.

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina.

The set-up: Carolina made it all the way to the Conference Finals somehow last year, but then got swept by the Bruins. Montreal finished fourth in the Atlantic and it’ll be looking to get out to a much better start in 2019/20, after getting in an early hole in each of the last two years. The Hurricanes look poised for a massive letdown in my opinion, while the Canadiens look primed to deliver value in the early going. Five of Montreal’s top six scorers return. Last year Habs’ net minder Carey Price was 1-1-1 vs. the Hurricanes, allowing eight goals on 93 shots. 

The pick: Carolina goaltender Petr Mrazek faced Montreal once last year and he gave up five goals on 39 shots. I believe the stage is set for the slight upset on Opening Night. Play on the visitors.

10* play on the Montreal Canadiens. 

The set-up: Joel Quenville was hired to bring back a winning culture to Florida, but I think that the Panthers are going to be overmatched on opening night in this hostile environment. Florida now has swingman goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in net. Note that Bobrovsky faced the Bolts twice last year in the regular season and he allowed 12 goals on 50 shots. 

The pick: Last year the Lightning had the best record in the NHL, only to get swept in the first round by Bobrovsky and the Blue Jackets. Can anyone say “revenge” spot? Note that the Bolts were first in the league in scoring last year with  3.89 GPG and they return their top six scorers from last year. Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy faced the Panthers once last year and he gave up one goal on 43 shots for the victory. Note that TB is 66-17 in its last 83 as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range, while the Panthers are just 4-10 in their last 14 as a road dog in the +110 to +150 range. I’m laying the price with confidence.

8* play on the Lightning. 

The set-up: Buffalo looked “ok” for the first half last year, but then it predictably tanked in the second. A big reason why? It’s play on the road, where it finished a terrible 12-24-5. Overall the Sabres were eighth in both the least goals scored and in the most conceded. Both Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark return between the pipes for Buffalo. 

The pick: The Penguins finished third in the Metropolitan last year and clearly this core group of players is hoping to a return to form. Pittsburgh has to be feeling pretty good about its chances here though as it finished a sharp 23-14-4 on its own ice last season. Goaltender Matt Murray is 3-0-1 lifetime vs. Buffalo. Overall the Pens scored the sixth highest amount of goals last year, while giving up the 14th most. I’m banking on Sid The Kid and company taking care of business in this favorable opening night home matchup. Lay the price.

8* play on the Penguins.

The set-up: The Braves won the season series 4-2, going 2-1 at home and on the road. This is a matchup and a situation which favors the home side and I expect it to step up and deliver the goods. The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas, whole the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. 

The pitchers: Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) is 1-2 with a 2.61 ERA in three career starts vs. Atlanta, but he’s just 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA over his last three starts. 

Keuchel (8-8, 3.75) is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA in two starts vs. the Cardinals and he struggled a bit down the stretch. Overall I’d call these volatile starters a “wash,” but will give Keuchel the slight nod because of the home field advantage. 

The pick: St. Louis is a poor 1-4 in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Atlanta is 7-2 in its last nine at home vs. teams with a winning home record. Atlanta was dominant at home this year and I believe they come out and make a statement to open this series. Lay the short price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I’m expecting a wide open “shootout” between these two high-flying Western Conference opponents. San Jose was second in the Pacific last year, while Las Vegas was third. San Jose advanced to the Western Conference Finals despite finishing the regular season with the worst team save percentage in the NHL (.889). Both San Jose goalies have struggled vs. the Knights, as Aaron Dell is 0-2-1 with a 4.46 GAA, while Martin Jones is 3-2-0 with a 3.44 GAA. San Jose got the job done with its offense last year, averaging 3.52 GPG, which was second best (the defense allowed 3.15 GPG, which was the 11th highest.) 

The pick: The Knights averaged 3.00 GPG and they conceded 2.78 last year. Last year the Knights were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by these very Sharks in Game 7 on a controversial call. Clearly the home side will be out to beatdown their visitors here today. When you add up all the situational factors above, as stated off the top I believe this one does indeed have “shootout” written all over it. 

10* play on the over Sharks/Knights.

The set-up: Washington went 6-1 in the preseason and it’ll be starting Braden Holtby between the pipes, while St. Louis was 4-3 in the preseason. The Blues will have Jordan Binnington in goal. Washington has a team filled with talent, but it lost a few players to free agency after it was abruptly knocked out of the playoffs in the first round last year. Also note that the Capitals Evgeny Kuzetnsov will miss the opener because off a three-game suspension. Also note that Alex Ovechkin is listed as day to day after sustaining an injury and missing the final preseason contest. 

The pick: St. Louis returns almost its entire Stanley Cup winning roster from last year. I think the Blues come out hungry and focussed despite the Championship Banner ceremonies to open. Ride the wave of emotion from the home town crowd and lay this very reasonable price.

10* play on the Blues.

The set-up: The winner of the AL Wildcard plays the Astros in Houston this weekend in the ALDS. Both of these starters come into this game “hot” and I expect each to throw deep. Charlie Morton gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Sean Manaea. 

The pitchers: Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA in seven postseason appearances. Morton appeared in the All Star Game this year. 

Manaea (0-0, 1.21) returned from a 12 month absence due to a torn labrum in September and since then he’s been nearly untouchable, winning both home starts with a 2.13 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Manaea is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa. Morton went 1-0 with a minuscule 0.68 ERA in two starts vs. the A’s this year (note that Morton owns a 1.65 ERA in three starts at Oakland in his career as well.) This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rays/A’s.  

The set-up: The Leafs are the heavy favorite here, but on Opening night, anything can happen. I don’t think Ottawa will go down without a fight and in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I think playing the visitors on the PUCK-LINE is the savvy call.

The pick: Both teams had “successful” preseasons, with the Sens finishing 3-2-1 and the Leafs going 5-3. I think that veteran goaltenders Craig Anderson and Frederick Anderson are a “wash” here as well. Ottawa is the younger team, but both clubs have plenty of new faces to work in. For all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the insurance in this one.

8* play on the Sens PUCK-LINE.

The set-up: I’m expecting a decisive victory for the home side in this “one and done” Wild Card game. Both teams were hot down the stretch, but I think the Nationals’ Max Scherzer is the difference maker here. The Brewers counter with Brandon Woodruff to start.

The pitchers: Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) comes in off two strong outings vs. the Pirates and Padres. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Woodruff at this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Scherzer (11-7, 2.92) enters off a full weeks rest and he owns a tiny 1.03 WHIP this season. 

The pick: Brewers’ slugger Christian Yelich is obviously not playing because of an earlier injury. Milwaukee center fielder Lorenzo Cain is also listed as day to day, while slugger Ryan Braun is dealing with a leg issue. The Nationals haven’t won a playoff series in 38 years, so clearly they won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note as well that the Nats are 6-0 in their last six vs. right-handed starters, while the Brewers are only 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. Milwaukee comes to town weakened and I believe Washington finally gets the monkey off its back with a resounding victory. Lay the 1.5 runs for the small plus money return.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers.

The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. 

The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 

10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams.

The set-up: Last year these team’s split two very close games which were decided by a combined five points. I don’t think anything will change this season either between these division rivals. The Ravens’ offense looks decent behind Lamar Jackson, who has 863 yards passing and seven TD’s. But the Ravens are in a letdown spot after their first loss of the year last week, falling 33-28 in Kansas City. Yes the Browns are only 1-2, but they’ve looked a lot better after their poor Week 1 performance/collapse vs. the Titans. Cleveland looked great last week I thought despite falling 20-13 at home to the high-powered Rams. Bayker Mayfield is under an extreme amount of pressure and while he did throw an INT on the four yard line with 33 seconds left, I think he continues to progress and gain confidence as the season progresses. This is a big game for Cleveland, as a win today propels them into a tie for the division lead. 

The pick: Cleveland’s offense is going to break out at some point this year and if not now, when? Cleveland’s defense is ranked 16th overall, allowing 22 PPG. The Ravens average 36 PPG and they concede 20. This isn’t going to be a cake-walk, but the Browns to have the talent in all three phases to hang with the Ravens and when you add on the desperation factor, I wouldn’t in fact be shocked by an outright upset. Note that the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and in their last four following a SU loss, while the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss. I’m grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: I simply don’t think the Dolphins are as bad as this spread would suggest (despite being 0-3 and their earlier results.) I also don’t think that the Chargers are nearly as good as what this spread would suggest. Especially on the road, a place where they’ve always had a difficult time. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel that this spread is much too large. The Chargers come in off back-to-back losses of their own. Josh Rosen makes his second start as the starting QB for Miami and I think he’ll benefit from last week’s experience. 

The pick: LA won’t get RB Melvin Gordon back in the line-up until next week and while Austin Ekeler has been decent in a back-up role, I still think the visitors are stretched thin here. Also note that the Chargers are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite of ten points or more, while the Dolphins are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Fish.

8* SUPER DOG DESTROYER on the Miami Dolphins.

The set-up: The Raiders beat the Broncos at home in Week 1, but they’ve since dropped two straight. So far Raiders’ QB Derek Carr has four TD’s and three INT’s. With an upcoming game in London England, the road ahead isn’t going to get any easier for Carr and company, who will clearly be given the green light from start to finish in this one. The Colts have done better than expected with Jacoby Brissett, who currently has 646 passing yards with seven TD’s and one INT. 

The pick: On paper the Colts are the better team. But the Raiders have talent and they’re definitely the “hungrier” dog in this fight. The Colts come in complacent in my opinion and note that they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive wins vs. the spread. The Raiders have struggled in most ATS categories the last few seasons, but note that they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 30 points or more in their previous outing. I’m banking on a “nail-biter.” Grab the points. 

8* UPSET SPECIAL on the Oakland Raiders.

The set-up: The Chiefs’ offense is fantastics, but I’m still uncertain about their defense. The Lions have been much better than expected this season (on both sides of the ball) and I think they will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Chiefs come to town content at 3-0 and off their 33-28 home win over the Ravens last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes now has 1,195 yards, ten TD’s and no INT’s this year. 

The pick: But I think Mahomes confidence gets the better of him today. The Lions are a dangerous non-conference opponent, especially at home and without question on the defensive side, holding teams to only 269.3 passing yards per game and only four TD’s over the first three contests. The Chiefs allow 395 total yards per game, including 258 through the air. Veteran Lions’ QB Matt Stafford has 831 passing yards with six TD’s and two INT’s. The Chiefs have a terrible run defense, so keep your eyes on Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson as well for the home side. This is a trap game for KC and I think it falls hook, line and sinker right into it. Grab the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on the Detroit Lions. 

The set-up: I think the desperate 1-3 Bruins will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire vs. the 2-1 Wildcats. UCLA managed a one-point victory in last year’s game. Arizona comes in having won straight at home, most recently over the hapless Texas Tech Red Raiders, but note that it’s still lost five of its last eight Pac 12 conference games overall. Arizona’s offense looks decent, but UCLA catches a break here facing suspect Wildcats’ QB Khalil Tate, who’s completed only 63 percent of his passes for six TD’s to four INT’s. 

The pick: The Bruins enter with momentum and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had five TD pass and two more on the ground. And that’s bad news for an Arizona secondary which has been torched by the pass this year, allowing 373 yards per game. The Bruins have been poor defensively, but note that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. Arizona on the other hand is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab the points and expect a closer than expected battle. 

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA.

The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under.

The set-up: I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the 0-4 Rice Owls will fight tooth and nail and at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rice has fallen to four quality opponents though and I think it finally puts everything together here in front of the home town crowd. Note that these two teams have one mutual non-conference opponent this year, the Texas Longhorns.

The pick: And note that each team lost by the approximate same score, with Louisiana Tech falling 45-14 and Rice losing 48-13. The Bulldogs’ defense allowed nearly 400 yards passing to FIU’s QB last week. And that’s good news for Owls’ QB Tom Stewart, who has 414 passing yards, three TD’s and on INT’s. Rice has allowed 31 PPG so far, but again that number is skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition thus far. Additionally note that Louisiana Tech is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Rice is 2-0 ATS in its last two off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points but wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset. 

8* play on Rice.

The set-up: Outright victory? Most likely not. But I’m expecting a battle until the end here between these Big Ten rivals. Indiana comes in off a blowout victory over UConn, while MSU enters off a victory over Northwestern. The Hoosiers have lost nine of the last ten in this series, including last year’s contest 35-21. But last week Indiana posted 430 yards of offense, while holding the Huskies to just 145. Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey was 23 of 27 for 247 yards, three TD’s and an an INT. Overall Indiana averages 33 PPG, and it concedes 19. 

The pick: MSU is averaging 29 PPG and it’s conceding 11. The Hoosiers though are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following one or more consecutive SU wins, while MSU is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a row win vs. a conference rival. I think the stage is set for a competitive battle.

8* play on Indiana.

The set-up: Coastal Carolina won’t be lacking for motivation here after winning three straight. Overall the Chanticleers are averaging 27 PPG and 181 passing yards, led by dual-threat QB Bryce Carpenter, who had 102 rushing yards and 104 passing yards in the blowout win over UMass. 

The pick: And would anyone blame App State for having a tiny bit of a mental letdown this week after its big 34-31 win over UNC at Chapel Hill last weekend?! It was the Tar Heels first victory vs. a Power Five opponent since 2007. App State has averaged 49 PPG this year, but I’m still unconvinced and think this one sets up beautifully for the surging visitors. Coastal Carolina is getting the job done by controlling the clock, averaging 200 rushing yards per game this year. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle. 

8* play on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the visitors. The Badgers enter off a big win over Michigan last week and I think an imminent letdown is inevitable for the home side here. Northwestern’ QB Hunter Johnson doesn’t have anything to lose here after starting the season with four INT’s and just one TD. Keep your eyes on Northwestern WR Bennett Skowronek, who has caught a pass in 30 straight games. The Wildcats will have their hands full with Badgers’ RB Johathan Taylor, who leads the conference in rushing.

The pick: However with the home side looking to control the pace and limit mistakes, I think that also plays into the Wildcats’ hands today and the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Northwestern hasn’t been very good on either side of the ball, but the defense still leads Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue. I look for the Badgers to go up early and then take the foot off the gas. Grab the points, expect a solid back door cover.

8* play on Northwestern.

The set-up: I think the 2-2 Bulls come to town complacent after their big upset win over Temple last week. This is the first conference game for both teams and I believe the Bulls stumble on the road. The RedHawks won’t be lacking for motivation here as they’re 1-3. A closer look at Miami-Ohio’s win/loss record though sees that it’s played the much tougher competition, including a humbling 76-5 loss to Ohio State last time out. Miami Ohio also plays with revenge here after falling 51-42 at Buffalo last season. 

The pick: Note though that the home team has covered in four of the last five games in this series. Buffalo’ QB Matt Myers was only 9 of 15 with no TD’s last week and was picked off once. The Bulls got 217 yards rushing and held Temple to only 31. But I like Miami Ohio’ QB Brett Gabbert at home here as he looks to bounce back after last week’s embarrassment. Gabbert still has 529 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s despite last week’s blowout setback. Miami has covered in eight of its last nine MAC games and in four of its last five at home. Look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done this afternoon.

8* play on Miami Ohio.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing well. Both teams are led by dynamic  QB’s. ASU is led by Jayden Daniels, while Cal is led by Chase Garbers. Daniels has looked poised early, but he’s still for the most part untested and that definitely changes tonight. Note that in the game vs. Michigan State, Daniels was only 15 of 26 for 140 yards and no TD’s in the 10-7 win. Cal sits 61st in the country in defense, allowing 366.5 YPG. The Bears’ secondary has given up just two passing TD’s as well through four games. 

The pick: Garbers has a 7:2 TD:INT thus far. He’s backed up by two competent RB’s in Christopher Brown Jr. and Marcel Dancy, who will keep the Sun Devils honest with Garbers (both have two rushing TD’s so far this season.) I give Cal the slight edge in all three phases and combined with the home field advantage, I’m going to confidently lay the points and expect a solid cover.

10* PAC-12 BEST OF THE BEST on California.

The set-up: Neither starter has done well this year and I believe each will struggle in this match-up as well. The visitors hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. 

The pitchers: Lopez (5-8, 4.96 ERA) is an atrocious 2-5 with a 7.27 ERA on the road this year. 

Velasquez (7-8, 4.76) was most recently shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Indians on Sunday.

The pick: The Phillies are out of playoff contention and they’re now just 79-80 on the year. Philadelphia will be hungry to stop its six game slide and I expect a big day at the plate from both teams here, as Miami would love nothing more than to kick the home side while its down. Facing these two suspect starting pitchers, everything definitely points to these line-ups being the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the over.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Marlins/Phillies.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Tribe hand the ball to Zach Plesac, while the home side goes with Austin Voth. The home side has a chance to ruin Cleveland’s post-season chances, as after dropping two straight games to the White Sox, Cleveland is two games behind the Rays for the final Wild Card spot with three games remaining. And unfortunately for the Indians, the Nats are just as “hungry” for victories here, as they hold only a one game lead for top spot in the NL Wildcard race. 

The pitchers: Plesac (8-6, 3.82 ERA) most recently was rocked for four runs off five hits over four innings vs. the Phillies in his last outing. 

Voth (1-1, 3.35) has a 2.12 ERA over four games since returning from the IL, posting 19 K’s over 17 frames. 

The pick: Considering all of the above situational factors, I think we’re getting a fantastic price on the home side here and it’s the reason why this play qualifies as one of my signature “PLAY-BOOK” releases.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: Yes the Eagles are “desperate” at 1-2, but they’ve also been terrible for the most part leading into this short week Thursday night contest. Carson Wentz has been good for Philly, but he’s been hampered by the fact that so many of his offensive weapons around him are injured. Five teams sit without a loss in the Eagles’ division and with a chance to deliver the knock out blow, I think the surging home side does just that. With a shot at a 4-0 start, I look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has led a half time in each of its three wins. The Packers have jumped out to early leads and maintained because of their incredible defensive play, allowing only 11.7 PPG. I think that Philadelphia struggles here to move the ball vs. this red hot defensive unit and I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue his blistering start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger.

10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: This is an early key AAC West division battle and as such, I think we’re going to see a very competitive affair. Note that the Midshipmen lead the all time series 3-1, including last year’s 22-21 upset victory over the Tigers. Navy likes to slow the game down when on offense, which works against this fast-paced Memphis offense. Keep your eyes on Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who also leads the team in rushing yards and TD’s this year. Memphis has been fantastic early defensively, but I think that over time that the visitors attack will wear down the home side front. 

The pick: The Tigers’ numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition. After a poor offensive showing to open the year vs. Ole Miss, the Tigers put up 55 vs. FCS opponent Southern, while them going on to also beat South Alabama by 42 points. Note that Tigers’ QB Brady White has three TD’s and an three INT’s thus far. Last year it was a one point victory f and the year before that it was a three-point win for the Tigers. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy.

The set-up: I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry hurlers. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede have had poor campaigns, but each will be eager to try and pad their stats with a strong performance while they can. 

The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) comes back from injury and he worked two innings vs. the Dodgers last Saturday. He’s 1-1 vs. San Fran this year and a sharp 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts for his career.

Beede (5-10, 5.23) has been roughed up twice by the Rockies this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home this season (3.99 ERA at home, compared to 6.28 on the road.) 

The pick: This series will conclude the Rockies road campaign. The Giants are paying respects to manager Bruce Bochy before he retires. Yesterday’s contest ended 2-1 and I anticipate another low-scoring affair here. 

10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rockies/Giants. 

The set-up: Neither starter will be lacking for motivation today. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede will be equally as “hungry” here, so I’m calling the pitchers a “wash” today. But after yesterday’s extra innings 2-1 victory, I think the home side carries that momentum over into this one. Overall I think it’s a great situational play, as the home side continues to pay tribute to long-time manager Brucy Bochy. 

The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) makes his second start back after an extended time on the IL with a groin issue. He pitched two innings vs. the Dodgers last weekend. 

Beede (5-10, 5.23) gave up six runs over six innings in a 6-0 loss to the Braves on Friday. Beede has been much better at home (3.99 ERA), than on the road (6.28).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is already a terrible 6-15 (-6.7 units) this season revenging a loss where it scored one or less runs, while San Fran is now 32-28 (+4.3 units) this year vs. clubs with losing records. Lay the short price.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the San Fran Giants.

The set-up: The Phillies have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and I believe they’ll simply “go through the motions” this evening. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anibal Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Smyly (4-7, 6.44 ERA) has a 5.82 ERA in nine starts since the start of August.

Sanchez (10-8, 3.91) has a 2.37 ERA over his past three starts. 

The pick: Washington has clinched a spot, but it still needs to claim home field advantage. There’s no room for error here. Expect the home side to lay the hammer down vs. the now eliminated Phillies. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Michael Wacha, while the home side goes with Merrill Kelly. 

The pitchers: Wacha (6-7, 4.63 ERA) has been decent of late, but note that he’s a terrible 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA on the road this season. 

Kelly (12-14, 4.31) has been decent of late as well, but he’s just 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA in his last five day home games.

The pick: While yesterday’s game went well under the number (3-2 D-Backs in extra frames), Wednesday afternoon’s contest definitely sets up as more of a slugfest in my opinion (note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in 23 of its last 38 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Arizona has seen the total soar over the number in 18 of its last 28 vs. teams with winning records.) Everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” 

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Cards/D-Backs.

The set-up: I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound and at the plate than what this line would suggest. The visitors see Julio Teheran toe the slab, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy. 

The pitchers: Teheran (10-10, 3.55 ERA) is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Royals, despite a minuscule 0.69 ERA spanning 13 frames of work. 

Duffy (6-6, 4.30) is coming off a strong outing and he’s enjoyed success vs. the Braves in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: The Braves still have a mathematical shot at catching the Dodgers, so I don’t expect them to let off the gas over this two-game interleague series. Just the opposite in fact. Look for ATL to come in focused on the task at hand and lay the reasonable mid-sized price (note the Royals swept a two-game series in ATL in July, so the Braves also play with revenge here.) 

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this total will sneak above the posted number. The Marlins hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Noah Syndergaard. Miami won 8-4 last night, pushing the Mets five games behind the Brewers in the wild card race. New York is playing for its playoff life, while the Fish are looking to deliver the final nail in the coffin. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as a “slug-fest.” 

The pitchers: Alcantara (5-14, 4.00 ERA) most recently was rocked for five run over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Wednesday. 

Syndergaard (10-8, 4.22) was most recently shelled for four runs over 5 2/3’s innings vs. the Rockies on Wednesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog of +200 or higher, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 as a -200 favorite or higher. This number is low considering all of the above factors. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER Marlins/Mets.

The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary.

The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins.

The set-up: Two competent starters who have had more difficult than expected seasons collide on Monday night and in my opinion, I believe each will work deep into this one. And as a result, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Blake Snell. 

The pitchers: Chacin (3-11, 5.66 ERA) has struggled vs. the Rays throughout his career, but he enters off a decent start and I look for the veteran to carry that momentum over here. 

Snell (6-7, 4.19) is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career starts vs. Boston. 

The pick: The Red Sox have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Rays are still in a fight for the Wild card. But in this contest, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Red Sox/Rays.

The set-up: I don’t normally recommend playing a side with a price of this size as one of my top rated 10* selections, unless I unequivocally feel that the situation calls for it. And that’s definitely the case here. The Phillies hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Patrick Corbin. 

The pitchers: Eflin (9-12, 4.00 ERA) has been much better of late and he’s 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA lifetime vs. the Nationals, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Corbin (13-7, 3.10) has won three of his past four outings, most recently allowing two runs over six innings while striking out 11 in a victory over St. Louis. In eight career starts vs. Philly he’s 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. 

The pick: This is a huge series for both teams, with Wild card positioning on the line. The Nationals play eight games in seven days which will decide whether they’re hosting the NL Wildcard, or travelling to it. One game at a time obviously. The Phillies are six games out with eight games remaining and come to town off a humbling 10-1 loss in Cleveland just last night. I’m laying the price with confidence. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: The Browns bounced back with a big win at the Jets last week after getting destroyed on Opening Night by the Titans. Cleveland got behind early in Week 1 and combined with a series of miscues and penalties, both the offensive and defensive game plans got thrown out the window early. Last week though Cleveland looked a lot better and precise on both sides of the ball. LA is in a three-way tie in the tough NFC West with both Seattle and the 49ers and it’s difficult to say anything negative about it to this point, however the overall situation is working against the visitors today.

The pick: I think LA gets caught “looking ahead” to its game next week for the Seahawks. Cleveland is set up perfectly here to steal this one outright, but in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points (and note, LA is a poor 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland is a solid 4-2 ATS in its last six non-conference games.) Outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points.

10* SLAUGHTER-FEST on the Cleveland Browns.