The Winnipeg Jets return from the break at home, where they are a fine 12-5 this season.  The Wild, on a 6-1 run, are less impressive on the road, 8-6 so far.  The Wild are just average on offense, but are certainly over-achieving on defense, limiting opposing offenses to just 6 goals total in those wins.  Both of their goaltenders have been sharp in net.  Fleurie has underwhelmed until recently, but was very very sharp leading up to the break.

The Jets are playing a much more disciplined and defensively-responsible style of hockey under new coach Bowness.  They are 4th-ranked in goals-against to date, and a strong fifth on the Penalty Kill.  #1 goaltender Hellebuyck, bouncing back from an off year in 2021,  is Vezina-good this season.

The Jets and Wild are both pretty average on offense, but have both been stingy in the goals-against recently.  Both teams have top-rated and competitive veteran net-minders, so perhaps we will see a little extra rivalry in goal.  the Under has been THE main feature for both teams lately; 6 of 7 in Wild games , and 6 straight for the Jets.  Here is a trend I don't want to buck.  Take the Jets and Wild to go under the total again on Tuesday.

The Clippers had absolutely zero business winning last night’s game in Detroit, let alone covering the spread. Down 14 with 3:34 left, LA appeared left for dead, but instead somehow rallied to force overtime where they’d go on to win 142-131. They were 5.5 point favorites.

I will look to fade LA again here, even if Kawhi Leonard ends up playing. A second night of a back to back after an OT game where they rallied just seems like a bad situation all around. The Clippers remain just 9-8 on the road and don’t play particularly good defense.

Toronto hasn’t played since before Christmas when they upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland (not easy to do), 118-107 as a 5-point dog. It was a perfect 3-0 ATS road trip for the Raptors, which included another outright win where they snapped the Knicks’ eight-game win streak. The only SU loss on the trip was by three, in overtime, at Philadelphia (who has been the hottest team in the league). 

Back to the Clippers, they have lost five of the seven times they’ve played in the second night of a back to back this year. 10*

This number is down to -7 and I think it’s time to hit Memphis, who should be favored by double digits here against Utah State in the First Responder Bowl, playing in Gerald J Ford Stadium (home of SMU) in Dallas, TX. 

The venue is familiar to Memphis as this is where they played their last regular season game, which ended up being a 34-31 loss to SMU. That was one of three losses by a field goal or less for the Tigers, who went 0-4 in one-score games this season. That’s pretty unlucky.

Utah State was last seen suffering the worst beat of this, or any other, College Football season. They were on the verge of being Boise State outright, but then fell apart and ended up not even covering as 17-point underdogs. But close calls mostly went the Aggies way this season; they were 4-0 SU in one-score games.

Close game records aside; Memphis is the much better football team here. I’ve got Utah State rated as one of the very worst teams in a bowl this year. Memphis will be motivated to win as they want to avoid their first losing season since ‘13. As a favorite, the Tigers are 6-1 this year and are winning by an average of 20 points/game.

The Utah State offense is going to be without its two top running backs due to opt out and injury. They will struggle to move the ball while Memphis should have no problem cashing in against an Aggies’ defense that is 94th in points per drive allowed when opponents get inside the 40-yard line. Lay the points in this one. 10*

The Chargers, who still have a shot at a wild card spot, travel to meet up with a struggling Colts team, now finished as far as the postseason. The Colts’ strength has been their defense, but last week’s 2nd half debacle follows a 54 points- allowed effort to the Cowboys, neither looking like an elite defensive performance. 3 Fumbles, 11 penalties and 426 yards-against last week does not look like a team with it’s heart in the game. Coach Saturday’s solution? Replace the quarterback with Foles, who has about three days experience with the offense. Add the loss of Jonathon Taylor, who has driven the Colts’ offense, and you have a recipe for failure.

The Chargers don’t run much but Herbert and Co. have put up over more than 300 passing yards on average in the last three games.   Perhaps, as we have seen with many pass-centric teams in the late season, the Chargers will be running at the the Colts' average run defense.  Other than last week, Herbert doesn’t usually throw the ball away. He is 2nd in completion % and passing yards this season. The Chargers' very average rush defense is at least a little better against the run lately, holding the Titans to 127 rushing yards and just 1 TD on the ground. They’ve been respectable and improving against the pass, land have limited teams to just 19 points overall in their last three games.

The Chargers are healthier and starting to show what they are capable late in the season. I am not convinced the Colts will show up and put in a full effort after the poor showing of the last two weeks. LA has the momentum and the need for a win. Chargers to win and cover.

If you’re thinking that this line looks a little “short” or even “scary,” the first thing you need to be aware of is that Kawhi Leonard is not taking the court tonight for the Clippers (due to injury management). 

The Clippers are only 8-8 on the road this season and coming off a deflating loss where they blew a 20-point lead at Philadelphia. 

Now it’s true the Pistons have the worst record in the NBA and are on a five-game losing streak. But this team generally plays hard. They are 9-3 ATS so far this season when they are on a losing streak of three or more games. 

Playing on exactly two days rest, the Clippers are 0-3 ATS. They are 6-23 ATS in that situation the last three seasons.

If you can believe it, the Pistons have a superior offensive rating compared to the Clippers. Without Leonard, expect the road team to struggle. 8*

These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.

BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.

Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games. 

The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks! 

BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* 

I’ll start by pointing out that this is a revenge game for the Grizzlies, who were eliminated by the Warriors (in six games) in last season’s Western Conference semifinal.

Golden State would go on to win its fourth NBA title in eight years last June. But things have not gone well so far this season. They are just 15-18 on the season and sit in 11th place in the Western Conference.

The biggest news for this game is the continued absence of Steph Curry. Andrew Wiggins (groin) is another player dealing with an injury and his status is questionable. Though they’ve had three days off, this is not a great spot for the Warriors, who are playing at home for the first time since a 1-5 SU/ATS swing out East. Generally, it’s a good idea to fade teams in their first game back from a long trip.

It doesn’t help that the Warriors’ defense has fallen off a cliff this year. They are 21st in defensive efficiency, which is not at all encouraging when facing a Memphis team that now has Desmond Bane back in the lineup and just hung 125 in a blowout win at Phoenix on Friday.

Remembering last season’s playoff exit, the Grizzlies will be looking to make a “statement” here. They are back at full strength while the Warriors aren’t even close to that. Currently tied for the best record in the West, the Grizz are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the points with the much better team on X-mas. 10* 

The Broncos are in LA to take on the Rams on Christmas day.  Who gets the black stuff gift-wrapped under the tree?  My bet is the Rams, and here is why.

The Broncos are top five on defense, tough to play against in all areas.  The Rams have a QB with 3 weeks experience and a suspect track record up against a very good pass defense. with good passer pressure stats as well.  The Rams are even worse than the Broncos as far as protecting their passer, and rarely run the ball.  Mayfield will have a bull's eye on his back all afternoon.

The offensively-challenged Broncos have actually scored more points than someone over the last three weeks, and that "someone" is the Rams.  The Broncos have kicked it up a notch on offense recently.  Their ran for 50% of plays last week, finishing with 165 yards and  4.9 a carry.  Russell Wilson is back and Aaron Donald is not.  Merry Christmas Russ.  The Rams defense has struggled lately, and the pass defense is only 22nd rated.  Wilson will be all in to finish on a high note after a putrid season.

The Broncos are favored, which just shows how far the mighty Rams have fallen.  Give me the Broncos to win and cover.

The Dolphins are home for Christmas after three straight road losses, so situation-critical for them.  The Packers are off a pair of wins and still have a small shot at a wild card spot.  Miami has a better record at home this season.  They had better step up this week.  They gave up 29 points on average in their last three games, a full 8 points off break-even.  Other than passer pressure, their pass defense is pretty poor, averaging  close to 300 yards in their last three games. Their red zone defense and 3rd down conversions-allowed are well below average as well.
Tua bounced back after a couple of rough outings, but in a bit of a twist, the Dolphins ran much more last week, resulting in a huge jump in rush play %, rush yards (188) and yds per carry (6.5).  The Packers have a top ten pass defense, but struggle against the rush, so Miami would be wise to continue their run tactic.
It has been a disappointing season for the Packers, so it is difficult to buy their recent wins as a turnaround, however Rodgers does seem to have more confidence in his targets, and his receivers are healthy.  I feel like the Packers match up well against the Dolphins.  The Packers might just have a little gas in the tank for a playoff run, so this game is a must-win for them as well.  I'm looking for the Packers in the warm climes of Miami to at least keep this game close.  Take the Packers plus the points.  Oh, and a Very Merry Christmas!!

It is the Bengals vs the Patriots in a Christmas Eve match-up.  The Patriots are off a foolish loss in week 15.  They beat poor teams (usually) but struggle more than expected vs elite ones.  The Bengals, winners of 7 straight games, are an elite team, certainly on offense.  Burrow's average  passer rating is 105 over the last 3 weeks, and Week 15's was exactly double that of Mac Jones'.  The Bengals have a solid run game in Mixon and Perine should they choose to use it, but really, the offense is all about the pass.

The Patriots are a top ten defense, but have given up more points than the Bengals' somewhat  underrated D.  NE's best quality is  passer pressure: they are third in sacks and first in completion rate allowed.  They do give up more TDs to opposing passers than might be expected.  Burrow is certainly no stranger in dealing with passer pressure, and the Bengals' O-line is much improved.

The Patriots are very average on offense; mid-pack in points-scored, but last in red zone offense, and poor in third down conversions.  They have a pair of solid running backs, but Mac Jones isn't scaring anyone lately.  The Bengals defense is solid; eighth and improving in rush yards allowed. Their weak point is their pass defense.  They  are just 20th in passer yards given up, but other than last week, are very stingy in pass TDs allowed.

Anything can happen on any given week, but the Bengals' as a 3 point favorite is a golden opportunity to me.  Jump on this play.

The surging Detroit Lions travel to meet a Panthers team that has won 2 of 3 games, however the only team to beat Detroit recently is the Bills.  Goff has been an eye-opener this year. Now a top ten QB, he has been well protected, averaging over 300 yards passing with no picks in 3 weeks.  The Lions' time of possession is 56% in the last three weeks, and in spite of a pass-first offense, they have a very acceptable running game.
The Lions' defense has made great strides lately with avg. points allowed at just 18 in their last three games, the rush defense showing great improvement, and with a big increase in passer pressure.
The Panthers' offense with Sam Darnold at QB put up 30 points vs the Seahawks, but are otherwise averaging just 19 points-for a game.  They are poor in the red zone and in 3rd down conversions.  Their running game is all over the map, usually solid, but with just 21 yards vs the Steelers last week.  They are just 30th in passing yards and passer rating this season, and Darnold was sacked 4 times last week.
On defense, the Panthers are competent, although they struggle defending in the red zone and on 3rd down conversions, and are nothing special in passer pressure.
This is definitely a good situation for the Lions to keep rolling.  The Panthers will struggle to keep up with Detroit's offense on Saturday.  A very favorable line is available.  Take Detroit to win and cover.

Northwest Division rivals renew acquaintances right before Christmas with Denver hosting Portland. Speaking of Christmas, Denver plays on the holiday while Portland doesn’t. While not the full extend of my handicap here, I think there could be a bit of a lookahead for the Nuggets (host the Suns on X-Mas).

For Portland, this is the end of a six-game road trip. They’ve lost the last two games, both to lowly OKC, so they are desperate for a win here so they can return to their families with their collective heads hung high. I expect the Blazers to be fully motivated tonight. 

These teams have already split a pair of games in Portland this year. The Blazers won the first one by 25, but lost the second by 1. 

Something to consider is that while the Nuggets have the best record in the West through 30 games (19-11), three teams below them have better point differentials. Portland isn’t one of the three, but does sport an identical net efficiency rating for the season. 

The Blazers are a very respectable 11-6 ATS as underdogs while the Nuggets are 2-6 ATS overall in December. Take the points in this one. 10*

The Canucks are off a come-from-behind shoot-out victory last night, and now travel to Edmonton to meet the Oilers today. It appears that 2nd stringer Spencer Martin will be back in the net with no viable option as a replacement.  The Canucks will be a tired team, no doubt looking ahead to the break.  The Oilers are just 1-4 lately with five straight games going over the total.  Their top two stars usually excel vs the Canucks.  The Canucks' defense and penalty kill are among the league's worst, but they can put the puck in the net.  The Oilers are no great shakes on defense either, but do sport the 3rd best offense and the league's top power play.  
Vancouver has been very good on the road recently, but offense and goal tending will let them down tonight.  Vancouver has lost five straight against the Oilers.  Take this game to go over the total.

Wake Forest finished the regular season on a 1-4 slide, its only win coming against slumping Syracuse. But I do expect the Demon Deacons to “show up” for the Gasparilla Bowl against Missouri. QB Sam Hartman is just one touchdown away from tying an ACC record.

Missouri picked up a nice win over Arkansas in its last regular season game, which they needed to become bowl eligible. My concern with the Tigers is that they only averaged 18 points/game outside of Columbia. Now some of that is due to facing the gauntlet of SEC defenses. But, home or road, Mizzou scored 24 or less eight times this year.

I like what I’m hearing from Wake head coach Dave Clawson, who has said he’s happy with the matchup and wants to beat a SEC team. Clawson always seems to get his team to exceed expectations every year. Receiver A.T. Perry not opting out of the bowl is another plus. He’s Hartman’s favorite option to throw to.

Missouri’s defense, which is the strength of the team, is dealing with some opt-outs. The two top defensive linemen won’t play and neither will safety Martuez Manuel. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Mizzou has had to say goodbye to its playcaller (took another job) and receiver Lovett (led team in catches won’t play today either). In the end, look for Wake QB Hartman to be the difference for a Wake team that is on a 9-4 SU/ATS run in bowls. Lay it. 10*

It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. 

Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. 

Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. 

That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. 

Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10*

I think this is a good spot to grab the points and fade Utah. The Jazz were 126-111 winners on Tuesday, which was actually good for me as I had the Over in that game with the Pistons (my 10* NBA Total of the Month!) But here, they’re probably less motivated, which could be a problem facing a Wizards team that’s desperate for a win.

This is Washington’s fifth straight road game, all out West. They lost the first three games, but then upset Phoenix Tuesday, winning 113-110 as seven-point underdogs. The trip ends tomorrow in Sacramento. But I think the Wiz are likely to play better tonight. For what it’s worth, the Wiz are 7-5 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year with an almost even scoring differential.

Yes, the Wizards had lost 10 straight before beating Phoenix.  But with the proverbial “monkey off their back” now, I expect them to play better. Bradley Beal is back and averaging 28 points/game on 46% shooting since his return.

I am anticipating that Utah will crater and not be a team that finishes in the Top 10 out West. They are 25th in defensive rating. 

Washington beat this Jazz team 121-112, as a four-point home dog, back in November. Utah is only 5-5 in December and I don’t think they should be laying this many points. Back the dog. 10*

The Jets host the Jaguars in the rain and the wind and prime time on TNF. No Mike White this week for the Jets.  It is back to Zach Wilson, who has performed poorly this season, and does not appear to have the confidence of his team mates. As good as the Jets' defense is they are offensively challenged, averaging just 17 points in their last 3 games, and 27th ranked in red zone scoring. Wilson has just 6 TDs, to 6 picks, and has one of the worst completion %s in the league.  The Jets are not compensating on the ground, with just 82 yards average rushing last 3 games and 50 last week.
The opposing QB, Lawrence has found his form lately, with QB rating of 121 last week, and 114 L3 games.  He has been well protected and threw for 4 TDs vs the Cowboys last week.  He has paid his dues, fouling up on a rain-soaked field earlier, and will know what to expect.  As good as Trevor Lawrence has been, it would be remiss to underplay Etienne and the rest of the rush offense.  The Jags had 190+ yards vs the Cowboys in overtime and 127 yards average, compared to the Jets' totals.
There is no question that the Jets have a formidable defense. There is a little wiggle room with the run defense, and they haven't been as tough on passers lately.  Williams is still questionable which could be a reason for some of the defensive slippage.  The Jag's defense has been opportunistic at best, often below average, but tougher on passers lately, averaging 3 sacks a game/ Last three.

The Jags have the momentum, the better run game and a much better pass attack.  They rallied against a tough Cowboys team last week. I just can't see where the points will come for the Jets this week. Take the Jags, a slight underdog, to win.

Off a loss in their last game but on a 7-1 run, the Rangers are at home to the rival islanders on Thursday evening.  It is a good opportunity for the Rangers to salvage a single win in the 3 game series in spite of a past history of losses to the Isles.  The teams are evenly matched this season, allowing an average of 2.7 goals while scoring 3.2.  The Rangers have a solid edge recently, managing 30 goals in those 7 wins while allowing just 10.  The Islanders are just 2-5 in their last 7 games, with 5 of those games going over, a very un-Isles style of play in this stretch.  
Sorokin has struggled lately. He lost 5 straight games, bouncing back in his last start with a much better effort.  We knew it would happen, but it appears Rangers net-minder Shesterkin has finally re-found his form, with a .945 Save % lately, allowing minimal goals in recent games.
In spite of the Islander dominance in the past, I like the Rangers chances today. They are healthier and playing a much more defensively responsible, with a ton of potential firepower.  They've been under-performing for much of the season,  but now seem to have turned a corner.  take the Rangers to win at home.

Gonna fade this Chicago State team again. On Monday, we only needed to lay -6.5 with Illinois State, who covered fairly easily in a 66-52 win. Here, it’s a big number obviously, but we’re also getting Minnesota out of the Big 10. This game won’t be close.

As mentioned in Monday’s writeup, Chicago State is in the midst of a long road trip. It began 11 days ago and this will now be the fifth game in a row away from home. The previous four have all been losses with the final margins getting wider. The Cougars have just one win in their last 10 games. 

But of course, we’re not just betting on a win here from Minnesota, we need them to win by margin. The Golden Gophers may be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this year, but they are still eons better than Chicago State. The respective KenPom ratings of these two teams are 181 and 327. You know who’s who. 

Minnesota had lost five in a row before picking up a convincing 72-56 win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff last week. What’s significant about that win is that Ark Pine Bluff has a comparable KenPom rating to Chicago State. It was the Gophers’ first game against a non-quality opponent in some time, which partially explains their SU record.

Chicago State has to be gassed playing its fifth road game in 11 days. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been off for over a week. That’s a huge situational edge to the superior home team. Lay it! 10* 

It’s been a much better season than usual in Sacramento where the fans haven’t seen the playoffs since 2005-06. That’s the longest postseason drought of any team in the four “major” North American sports. So far this season, the Kings are 16-13 and sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference.

But they’re coming off a loss, and a bad one at that, as they fell here at home to the lowly Hornets on Monday. Despite a monster game from Domantas Sabonis (28-23-7), the Kings fell 125-119 as 10-point favorites.

Perhaps you can blame the spot as the Kings were home for the first time following a six-game swing out East. Regardless, I expect them to bounce back here against a wounded Lakers squad that is now without Anthony Davis.

LA didn’t have LeBron either Monday at Phoenix and as a result got trounced 130-104 by Phoenix. They are now 2-5-1 ATS since December 6th. Even worse is the Lakers’ ATS record vs. division foes, which is 0-6. They have also lost all six games straight up.

It’s a decent sized number to lay here, however, the Kings are putting up 122.9 points/game at home. The Lakers, even with LeBron presumably back in the lineup, cannot keep up with that. The Kings are not only 6-1 ATS vs. division opponents, but 10-3 ATS against teams that have losing records (Lakers are 13-17 SU).

The 8-2 Wild are on a tear, moving into third in their division and winning 5 straight.  They've allowed just five goals in those wins while scoring 17, and are  getting a fine one-two scoring punch from Zuccarello and Kaprizov.  The 3-7 Ducks lost last night to the Kings.  The Ducks are 0-6 when playing the second game in a back to back situation.  Anaheim is down to their third or fourth string goalie tonight with a trio of defensemen out or questionable, adding to their woes as the league's worst in goals allowed and 31st in goals-scored.  Fleury will likely be in net for the Wild. He has been under-performing slightly this year, but has shown improvement lately with a pair .950+ save %'s in his last two appearances.
The Wild are healthier, better rested and have momentum.  The Ducks' goalie and defense situation is not promising. Take the Wild on the Puck line at -1 1/2.

I’m going to lay the points here with South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. Since making the jump to the FBS level a decade ago, the Jaguars have never won in a bowl. They’ve only been to two, the last one coming in 2016 (a 45-21 loss to Air Force in the Arizona Bowl). Motivation always has to be part of your handicap in these early bowl games. USA should be motivated to win here. 

Meanwhile, there’s an odd situation with Western Kentucky. Their QB Austin Reed, who was second in the country in passing yards (Penix of Washington #1), announced his intention to enter the transfer portal. But then there was an “about face” and Reed is back, set to start the bowl. Teammates are saying the right things, but it’s hardly ideal bowl prep.

The Sun Belt is already 3-0 in bowl games with Troy, Southern Miss and Marshall all victorious thus far. Conference USA is pretty weak and has already dropped two of three bowl matchups. The lone win was UAB against a MAC school (Miami OH). The MAC is the only conference I have rated lower than C-USA. 

South Alabama was 2-10 SU three years ago and now has “flipped” that record, entering this game with a 10-2 record. Their defense is excellent, allowing just 19.4 points and 303.7 yards per game. This matchup is all about the Jaguars’ defense vs. the Hilltoppers’ offense. 

Again, I’m playing the favorite here. USA’s only two losses this year were to Troy (Sun Belt Champs) and UCLA and they were by a combined five points! WKU also lost a close game to Troy and stayed within three at Indiana. But the Hoosiers aren’t a bowl team and the Hilltoppers also got blown out by North Texas and Auburn. USA’s motivation of trying to win their first bowl trumps all. 10* 

Early College Hoops action on Wednesday as Davidson hosts Northeastern. Both teams are coming off losses. Northeastern fell at IL-Chicago, 81-73 as a 2.5 point underdog. Davidson lost 69-61 to Purdue, but easily stayed within the number as 14.5 point underdogs.

Coming off a high-profile game against the #1 team in the country, this is a tricky spot for Davidson to be laying double digits. It being an afternoon game doesn’t help and could add to a potential “sleepy” effort. Following this game, the Wildcats are off for a week.

Northeastern is 0-5 so far in true road games and is 3-7 overall. They have not shot well at all this year, making just 40% overall and 30% from three. But we saw those numbers go up against UIC and they should continue to do so. 

I also do not believe that opponents will continue to shoot only 29% from three against Davidson. 

Nine of Davidson’s 11 games have been decided by single digits, including the last seven. I just don’t see the Wildcats winning this one by double digits. Grab those points. 10*

There were different results for these two squads in the respective Big East openers. Xavier hung 102 on hapless Georgetown Friday night while Seton Hall lost at home (71-67) to Providence. 

It looks like a big number here, but I’m laying it with the Musketeers, whose three losses this year have been to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. All those games were close, decided by seven or less. Seton Hall has five losses and has been blown out a few times, losing by double digits to Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

The Pirates also lost to Siena. I just don’t see them scoring enough to stay within this number tonight. They are averaging just 63.5 points/game away from home so far. That’s not going to cut it against a Xavier team that’s putting up 85.3 in its gym. 

In addition to that, this is a double revenge game for Xavier, who dropped both meetings with Seton Hall last season.

Xavier has won its last six games coming into tonight and has the ninth most efficient offense in the country per KenPom. The worry if you’re Seton Hall is trying to keep up with the pace the Musketeers like to play at. Too much offense from the home team here. Lay it. 10*

Second night of a back to back for Utah, who got blown out Monday in Cleveland 122-99 as a seven-point dog. It was the second straight 20+ point loss for the Jazz, who may have finally “hit their wall.” This was a team not expected to contend in 2022-23 but has played .500 ball through 33 games. That sounds nice, but you have to consider they’ve now dropped 10 of their last 15.

Of course, the Pistons are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They have the worst record in the league coming into tonight at 8-24. They’ve dropped five of six, the only win coming against 8-23 Charlotte. So I’ve got zero interest in backing the home team in this one either. 

So let’s now look at the total. Utah hasn’t scored 100 in back to back games, but they also just faced two of the best defensive teams in the league. Detroit is second worst in defensive efficiency. 

The Over is 10-4 in Pistons’ home games due in large part to the fact they give up nearly 119 points/game here. They’ve also allowed 122 or more to four straight opponents.

Utah has allowed 122 or more in each of its last three games, so expect plenty of scoring tonight in this one. Go Over. 10*

The MAC representative has generally not fared well in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, claiming just three wins since 2011. Now it isn’t always MAC vs. Mountain West, but when it has been, the MWC is 5-3 straight up. But for this year’s matchup between Eastern Michigan and San Jose State, I like the MAC team getting points.

Part of that is motivation. Coach Chris Creighton has really done a pretty good job at turning this EMU program around. The Eagles had been a doormat for years prior to Creighton’s arrival, but this is will be their fifth bowl appearance in his nine seasons. The thing is, they’ve yet to win one. The program’s last bowl win came all the way back in 1987,  in the California Raisin Bowl, against (you won’t believe this, San Jose State). It’s one of the longest bowl droughts in the FBS. 

Off a poor finish to the regular season, where they failed to cover their last six games, don’t see where the motivation for SJSU comes from. This also figures to be the rare cold weather bowl game. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30’s, something the Spartans are not accustomed with.

Eastern Michigan won its final three regular season games (scoring 31 or more every time) to finish 8-4. QB Powell had 581 yards passing and a 6-0 TD-INT ratio the last two games. In its last two games away from home, the San Jose State defense allowed 35 and 43 points. EMU can run as well. I expect them to put up a good number of points here. 

As for the San Jose State offense, it is led by QB Cordeiro, who ran hot and cold all year. Eastern Michigan was #2 against the pass in the MAC and won six of the seven games it didn’t allow 240+ pass yards. SJSU’s offensive line is bad, allowing too much pressure and there isn’t much of a ground game. 10*

The high-scoring Sabres are on the road against the Golden Knights on Monday.  The Sabres have won three straight and are above .500 on the road. Vegas is 1-3 in recent home games, and their young goalie Thompson has also tended to struggle more at home.  Vegas has a lengthy injury list with some key players out.  The Sabres have the top offense in the league but defense is often not a priority, allowing 3.5 goals a game.  The Knights are a solid defensive team, but their 24th ranked PK will be up against the Sabres second ranked Power Play. Vegas is also not immune to some high totals, allowing 5 against the Islanders and the Jets in recent games.
The potential is there for a high scoring game.  Take the Sabres and Golden Knights to go over the total.

It will be a cold day in Lambeau Field when the Rams travel to face the Packers.  the Packers are healthier, better rested and favored by a touchdown on Monday.  Mayfield was the talk of the town this week for that last minute drive to beat the Raiders in week 14.  Let's keep things in perspective; he and the Rams did nothing for most of the game, the Raiders' pass defense is very poor, and the Rams ended the game with 17 points, almost exactly average for them this season. a plus for the Rams is their run defense, 4th rated this season although yards-against have climbed in the last three games. They are generally below average in passing yards allowed and don't pressure the passer particularly.  On offense, they don't usually run the ball although that could change this week.  The Packers are very poor against the run, and much tougher (4th in yards allowed} when defending against the pass.  Mayfield has been with the team barely 10 days.  I think he was running on adrenaline last week and this week will be the real test.
Rodgers has not been all that he can be, but will have both key wide receivers this week, and has looked more comfortable in recent games.  The Packers have a fine duo of running backs, who the Packers have been using more with good success. With Rodgers at home and under the lights and with an extra week off, I am taking the Packers to win and cover on Monday.

Illinois State hasn’t had a ton to celebrate over the first month of the season, but this is a game where the Redbirds should roll. They are matched up with Chicago State, who (as per usual) is one of the worst teams in the country. Expect the home team to roll tonight in Normal.

ISU was on a three-game SU win streak and had covered four in a row before facing Ball State on Saturday. That game was played at a neutral site (Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis) and the Redbirds got victimized by a hot-shooting team as Ball State made 56.7% of its field goal attempts.

You can’t expect that from Chicago State, who is shooting just 41.5% as a team for the season. The Cougars have covered four in a row, but have lost the last three SU and this will be their fourth straight road game over the last nine days. That’s a bad spot to be in for a team that’s won only three times all season and one of those victories came against IUPUI, the worst D-I team in the country.

Chicago State has played 10 road games and lost them all, by an average of nearly 15 points/game. We don’t even need that margin here. 

After losing its first two games of the season here in Normal, both by three points, Illinois State has won its last three home games including a nice little upset of Belmont. The Redbirds should win easily tonight. Lay the points. 10* 

All of a sudden, Orlando has won six in a row and covered seven straight. They just swept a pair of games in Boston, but with the second being played yesterday, the Magic find themselves at a rest disadvantage here. Atlanta last played on Friday, when they blew out Charlotte 125-106 on the road.

That result was much needed for the Hawks as they’d previously dropped 8 of 11 amidst infighting. One of the losses came to the Magic as the Hawks apparently thought defense was optional. They gave up 50 points in the first quarter and ended up losing 135-124. 

But that was in Orlando. At home, I like the Hawks to exact some revenge here.

The Magic have yet to win in the second night of a back to back this season (0-4), losing by an average of almost seven points/game. 

Considering the Hawks were three-point favorites on the road in Orlando last week, it sure looks like we’re getting a discount on them for this rematch. Atlanta won the season’s first two meetings, by 10 and 17 points respectively. They are 8-2 SU/ATS vs. the Magic the last three seasons. Lay it. 10*

In the final game on the board, I look for Baylor to roll tonight against Washington State. This is being played at the American Airlines Arena (home of NBA’s Mavs), so not a true home game for the Bears, but we know which team will have more crowd support here.

Since a humiliating 26-point loss at the hands of Marquette, Baylor has beaten Gonzaga and predictably rolled Tarleton State. They remain in the top 15 at KenPom and are a top five offensive team.

Washington State has lost three of four, including close games to Utah (in overtime) and UNLV (who was still undefeated at the time). So the Cougs are getting some respect from the oddsmakers here. But not from the public, who has already bet this number up a couple points.

I agree with the line move. Wazzu turns the ball over way too much and that plays right into the hands of Baylor, who is 24th in the country in turnover percentage and 36th in steal percentage. 

Probably going to be too much offense from the Bears as well. They average 84.6 points/game while Wazzu only averages 71.6. Really that second number is inflated. The Cougs have had three big offensive games so far (96, 82 and 83) but otherwise haven’t topped 70. They had just 65 in the OT loss at Utah. 8* 

The Titans face the Chargers at home in a a very significant game for both sides.  The Chargers are healthier this week with 2 top WRs and their center healthy which should provide a boost to their passing offense.  Herbert was on fire last week, throwing for a massive 342 yards vs the Dolphins.  Pass defense is the Titan's sore point; they've given up the 31st ranked passing yards this season including 340 on average in the last three games.

As Henry goes, so go the Titans' offense. Usually. The king bounced back vs the Jaguars last week after a couple of off weeks, but the Titans' pass attack just hasn't been dynamic enough to win games lately.  They average just 175 yards passing and 18 points-for, and even with Henry they are just 16th in rush yards this season.

Henry should be able to run against LA, but the Chargers have been tough to move against in the air lately, with an opponent's average passer rating of 81 L3 games, and 65 last week.

The Chargers have the momentum, are at home and need this game to keep playoff hopes alive.  Look for the Chargers' pass attack to improve this week and LA to win and cover.

The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense.  Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs.  They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games.
The Bears' offense is best in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry.  They run the most often in the league, and have Fields, who is not the best option as a passer, but has the best QB wheels in the game.  That said, the Bears have been throwing the ball more lately, whether out of choice or necessity.  On defense it is a different story.  The Bears are poor vs the run, while somewhat better against the pass.  They don't blitz or pressure passers much, but have handled rushing QBs like Hurts well.  The Bears have not been able to control the game the way the Commanders did against the Eagles, but they have managed to put up points against everyone else they've played recently other than the Jets.
The Eagles are averaging 41 points over their last three games, but do give up points, 20 on average.  Fields and the Bears rush success will keep this game from being a blow-out, But I'm betting Philly will continue to rack up the points.  Take Sunday's game to go over.

It is Messi vs possibly his heir apparent in Mbape facing each other in the World Cup final.  France scored a pair against a tough Maroc side, but the Atlas Lions, much less of an offensive powerhouse than Argentina,  had their chances.  Argentina ran up 3 goals against Craotia.  Both teams have superlative offenses and real star power, but have conceded goals in the tournament.  France has scored 13 and allowed 5, with Argentina conceding 5 and scoring 12.

One has the feeling that Messi will be all-out in likely his last chance for a world cup victory, with France just as determined to repeat as champions.  This will be another very close offense driven game.  It is very likely that we sill see goals from both sides, possibly multiples.  Frances was victorious in the 2018 World Cup match, winning 4-3.  It is not unlikely that we will see something similar on Sunday.

Take Argentina and France to go over.

Abilene Christian comes into this game as the road favorite and has already taken significant money against a Cal State Bakersfield team that I’d have little faith in. Our side comes in having won four of five, including an 84-63 beatdown of Texas A&M-Commerce last Saturday.

CS-Bakersfield plays slow (341st in adjusted tempo) and is also one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country (342nd). There’s just not much to like about the Roadrunners right now. In their last three games vs. D-I opponents, they have failed to score more than 54 points. This will be their first time taking the court in 11 days. So on top of everything, they could be rusty.

Abilene Christian averages 76.4 points while outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game. I just don’t think this spread is large enough, even with the Wildcats being the road team. 10*

There is no doubt the Suns will be looking to avenge a pair of losses in New Orleans last week. But equally perturbed will be the Pelicans, who just dropped two in a row at Utah. I’ve got the Pelicans rated as the better team here and thus will be taking the points.

NO had won seven straight before those two losses in Salt Lake City. Their last two wins were both against the Suns as they won 128-117 and 129-124 at home. That second win required overtime. The pattern was then repeated in Utah with the second of the two games going to OT, only this time the Pelicans lost both times.

The Suns were on an 0-5 SU/ATS tailspin before catching a break and facing the Clippers, who sat four starters including Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, on Thursday. So there’s really no debate as to which of the teams involved tonight has been playing better. 

New Orleans is a top five team both on offense and defense. They are the only team in the league that can say that. They have the best point differential this year among Western Conference teams. Their record would be a lot better if not for four overtime losses.

The Suns are missing both Cameron Payne and DeAndre Ayton. Neither played Thursday and both are listed as being OUT for tonight. Give me the the Pelicans, off back to back losses and at full strength, catching the points. 10*

The surprising Coyotes, off a win over the Islanders, have two strikes against them tonight.  In spite of an above .500 record at home, they played last night, and won't start Vejmelka in net.  Vejmelka has held the Coyotes in games all year, but played last night, so expect Ingram (1-6, .866) to start.  For the Sabres it will likely be 41 year old Anderson, a standout this year, off a shutout over the Kings in his last start.  The Sabres have won their last two games and while very young, have a tremendous upside.  They are leading the league in goals-scored and are second on the PP.  Defense is not their forte; they give up 3.5 goals a game.  The weak scoring Coyotes may have exhausted themselves last night, managing 5 goals against the Islanders.  Arizona gives up better than 3.5 goals a game.
I like the Sabres' chances very much today. They're an explosive offensive team with a solid veteran net-minder against a poor and tired Coyotes squad playing their second string goalie. they have a better record on the road this year. Take the Sabres all the way.

The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!)

The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season.

Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under.

Rice is a 5-7 team that only got to a bowl because there weren’t enough 6-win teams. For that reason, most will be writing off the Owls here in the Lending Tree Bowl vs. Southern Miss. But don’t discount the Owls’ motivation. This will be the program’s first bowl appearance since 2014. They will be out to win. So I’m taking the points.

Southern Miss is in a bowl for the first time since 2019. They won their final game (20-10 over LA Monroe) to get to 6-6. The Golden Eagles’ offense goes through RB Frank Gore Jr, who I concede could be a problem for a shaky Rice run defense (166.8 YPG allowed). 

These teams are quite familiar with one another as they were rivals in Conference USA up until this season when USM bolted for the Sun Belt. Rice has actually beaten Southern Miss each of the last two seasons, 24-19 and 30-6, both times as a one-point underdog. 

Half of Rice’s games this season were decided by seven points or less. The same was true of Southern Miss. With a low total, I think it just makes sense to take the points here. 

Turnovers were the Owls’ bugaboo this year. Only Northwestern coughed it up more. As long as they can protect the football, I have no doubt that they can cover this number and possibly win outright. 10* 

A lot of people are probably going to want to jump on Creighton here as the Bluejays have dropped five in a row, the last three all coming as favorites. But Ryan Kalkbrenner remains questionable due to illness and this Marquette team is no joke. Therefore, now is NOT the time to be jumping on the Bluejays.

While Creighton has dropped five straight, Marquette has suffered only three losses all year. All three were by five points or less, to teams ranked in the Top 40 at KenPom: Purdue, Miss State and Wisconsin. The last loss (Wisconsin) was an overtime game. The Golden Eagles are coming off a 79-64 win at Notre Dame on Sunday. I played them there and will do so again today.

Against Notre Dame, the Golden Eagles won despite shooting only 26% from three. Winning at South Bend is not easy, especially when the visitor isn’t making threes. So tip your cap to Marquette there. Overall, this team is shooting very well this season; at nearly 50% from the field. Creighton does not defend the three-point line particularly well, ranking 240th in the country in doing so. 

This is a huge revenge spot for Marquette, who has lost the last four meetings with Creighton. 

Even if Kalkbrenner does play, don’t expect him to be that effective. At 7-4 ATS on the season, Marquette has been beating oddsmakers’ expectations and they are a strong home team (just two losses in the calendar year at Fiserv Forum). Lay the points. 10*

Cleveland has been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NBA, all year long. But this is too many points to lay in a division matchup. Only one time since 11/25 have the Cavs won back to back games. They are coming off a 105-90 win at Dallas Wednesday night. 

The Cavs’ defensive numbers have been outstanding. But Indiana comes in having scored 121 or more in three of its last four games and just beat the Warriors 48 hours ago. 

Revenge is a factor here as the Pacers were swept in the season series last year. Three of those games were decided by seven points or less. 

Indiana also has been good when facing conference foes this season. They are 10-6 straight up and against the number vs. the rest of the East.

I know Cleveland’s defensive numbers and home record makes for a scary fade here. But they are just 2-8 ATS when off a non-conference game and 1-5 ATS off their previous six SU wins. Take the points. 10*

This is the more “marquee” bowl on Friday as we’ve got Troy taking on UTSA in the Cure Bowl, played in Orlando, FL. You’ve got to think the Roadrunners want this one badly. They’ve gone 0-2 in bowls the last two years and are 0-3 all-time in bowls in program history.

I won’t dispute the fact that Troy has the edge defensively heading into this game. But my concern for the Trojans is whether or not they have enough offense to keep up with UTSA. My gut says “no.” UTSA averages 38.7 points/game, which is Top 12 in the country and #1 among Group of Five teams.

UTSA QB Frank Harris leads the charge with 3,865 yards passing this season and 9,158 in his career. Him sticking around to play in this game is a major reason why I’m putting my money on the Roadrunners. 

Both teams won their respective conferences, Troy the Sun Belt and UTSA C-USA. Of the four combined losses, three were to ranked teams (at the time) and the other on a Hail Mary.

Troy is 10-2 ATS, tied for the best cover percentage in the FBS. But teams coming into the bowls with a ATS win percentage of .750 or higher are just 41% ATS over the last decade. I believe UTSA is the substantially better team, which is NOT reflected in the line. 10*

Double digit dogs in bowl games have been a valuable investment through the years. We’ve got one of those in our very first bowl game of the season as Miami takes on UAB in the Bahamas.

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami ends up as a single digit dog by kickoff. That’s because on Thursday afternoon it was announced UAB stud RB DeWayne McBride is sitting this game out. UAB already was dealing with some upheaval as Trent Dilfer will be coming in as the next head coach. But it will be an interim (Bryant Vincent) coaching this game. Many of the players wanted Vincent to get the head coaching job on a permanent basis.

Both teams were 6-6 SU in the regular season. However, UAB didn’t cover the spread a single time away from home (0-6 ATS). McBride is a major loss as he led all of FBS in rushing yards (1,713) and touchdowns (19). 

Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS in bowls under Chuck Martin and this will be the first time since 2003-04 that the program has gone bowling in consecutive years. The RedHawks defeated North Texas in the Frisco Classic last year. They have covered four straight bowls. 

I’d bet this one ASAP as I expect the line to go down. But, no matter the number, taking the points would be the right move. In fact, an outright upset wouldn’t shock me here. UAB is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with more than a week of rest. The Blazers’ defense has struggled against mobile QBs and Miami has one in Aveon Smith (with Brett Gabbert out). A double digit dog with a total this low is attractive. Take the points. 8*

Santa Clara is going to be looking to reverse some trends here, namely the fact they are 0-5 ATS their last five games overall and 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with tonight’s opponent, UC Irvine (also 0-6 straight up!)

Now while the Broncos haven’t been covering, they’ve been (mostly) winning. Their only SU loss since Thanksgiving came here at home to San Jose State, 75-64, as an 8.5-point favorite here at home. 

They bounced back though by defeating Portland State 78-75, but as you already know did not cover the number. The Broncos were favored to win that game by 9.5 points.

Tonight, there really is no worry about winning and not covering as it’s a much shorter number vs. UC Irvine, a team that had dropped two in a row before winning at South Dakota on Saturday. I know it’s a shorter turnaround (between games) for Santa Clara, but I like them to get the job done tonight.

I do not think UC Irvine can continue to shoot 41% from three-point land nor do I believe their opponents will continue to shoot at a 28.8% clip from behind the arc. Lay the short number here. 10*

The Pelicans are looking to avenge a 21-point loss they suffered right here in Salt Lake City two nights ago. I think they do it. Yes, I did have the Pellies on Tuesday. But I don’t see them shooting just 39.8% overall again nor do I see them missing 23 of 27 three-point attempts as they did last time. 

The Pelicans had won seven in a row before losing to the Jazz. They still have the best record, point differential and net efficiency among Western Conference teams, so there’s no reason to panic after one bad loss. I believe this team is simply better than Utah.

The Jazz were supposed to be bottom-feeders this season, but have surprised with a winning record (16-14 overall). I’m still not convinced they can remain “above water” though. They are a bottom 10 team defensively, which is another reason I don’t see New Orleans’ poor shooting from Tuesday repeating itself here.

Another thing to note from Tuesday. Zion Williamson played only 26 minutes due to foul trouble. He still scored 26 points. 

New Orleans ranks third on the defensive end, so that’s a big edge. When off a SU loss as a favorite this year, they are a perfect 4-0 SU. Lay the small number. 10*

The 49ers survived without Jimmy G very well thank you very much, however it was a  very ugly week for the Seahawks, losing to the Lowly Panthers at home.  The Panthers ran all over the Seahawks, finishing with more than 200 yards rushing.  Geno Smith looked very human vs. a decent Panthers' pass defense, and was sacked three times by a team 20th in sacks this season.  The Giants defense will be in a feeding frenzy after a no sacks but dominant defensive performance against Tampa Bay.  The jury is still out on injured Seahawks' running backs, though it looks like Walker will be back.  The 49ers are not a team to face with an unbalanced offense, and Seattle managed just 46 yards rushing yards last week and an average of 67 yards L3 games. Purdy is questionable at QB, but there is nothing wrong with the 49ers' running game. These are very favorable odds for the moment, and they will not get better.  Jump on this one without delay.

The Jets, off a pair of losses after a 7-1 run, are at home and facing a Predators team who have struggled on the road this season.  Winnipeg allowed 11 goals in their last two games, uncommon in a team that is fifth in goals against, and very stingy on the PK.  The Jets will try to get back to their defensively responsible selves against a Preds team that has lost four straight and is 29th rated in goals scored and on the PP.  Nashville is also down 3 or 4 defensemen to injury today.

The Predators' ace net-minder Saros has been more uneven that might be expected this year.  Hellebuyck, the Jets' elite goaltender, has allowed 5 and 6 goals against in his last two games, but that has been more about defensive breakdowns in front of him.  Winnipeg has been overachieving on offense lately.  Look for  a much more defensively-focused Jets team to  avoid their third straight loss, and win this one at home.

Now seems like a good time to buy the Clippers. They are healthy with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both playing and just dismantled the Celtics on Monday (much to my dismay) 113-93 here at home. With Leonard and George on the floor together, this team is +18.3 per 100 possessions with a 99.3 defensive rating. Those are the kinds of numbers that were expected from a team many predicted could win the NBA Finals this season.

On the other hand, the Timberwolves haven’t seemed right all season. They are without Karl-Anthony Towns and just got beat twice in Portland. This is now their fourth road game in the last six days.

The most encouraging sign for the Clippers is that Leonard just scored 25 points on 10 of 12 shooting against Boston, his best game in some time. 

I already mentioned the Clippers’ defensive rating when both Leonard and George are out there. I think that they are likely to hold the T’wolves in check tonight. Minny has shot 51.4% over its last five games. That’s simply not likely to continue, which means trouble considering they’ve lost three of those last five games anyway. The Clippers were the first team all year to hold Boston under 100 points.

The Timberwolves simply have not been a good team to bet on this season as they are only 10-17 ATS overall including 3-6 as a dog. 8*

It was a rough start to the season in Eugene as, at one point, Oregon was down to just six scholarship players. After six games, they were 2-4 straight up. But the ship seems to have been righted as the Ducks have covered four in a row, winning three of those straight up (only SU loss was to UCLA).

I expect the home team to win big tonight against UC Riverside, who will be playing its third straight road game and second in the last four days. The Highlanders beat Idaho 76-74 on Sunday, however did not cover the spread as six-point favorites. They are outclassed in this matchup.

So far, UC Riverside has faced two opponents inside the KenPom top 100, Colorado and Creighton. They lost those two games by a combined 45 points. Another double digit loss is on the way.

Oregon will enjoy a nice size advantage in tonight’s matchup. In fact, by being the tallest team in the country, they enjoy a size advantage in every matchup.  UC Riverside does not hit enough threes to counteract that. When facing D-I opponents, the Highlanders are barely hitting 30% from downtown.

The Ducks are 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season and allowing only 59.3 points/game at home. Their resurgence continues here. 10* 

France and Morocco meet in an absolutely pan-global classic underdog/favorite matchup. France's defense has not been their forte ,and has given up a goal in every match so far in the World Cup.  They haven't looked particularly focused on the back end, and have given up too many free kicks on careless play.  Morocco has yet to yield a goal in the tournament, other than an own-goal vs Canada, although Portugal should have scored, with far too many shots off the target.  Morocco has has proven to be composed, unified and quite unflappable when defending to date and has a very strong net-minder in Bounou.  The Atlas Lions have also been potent on the counterattack and have shown excellent finish to date.  That said, France is formidable on offense with 11 goals in the tournament to date, and at least a trio of elite potential goalscorers in Mbappe, Griezmann and Giroux.

I 'm betting on both teams connecting for goals; France with likely more than 1.  Morocco might be content to play for a draw and penalty shots, but France, after Bono's heroics in net, will not want to leave this game to chance.

Morocco, the underdog, will be under tremendous pressure,with home country, and the Pan-Arab and african worlds passionately behind them.  They have been poised to date, but this level of playl is all new to them.  France, winner of the last world Cup, has pressure of their own but is on familiar ground.  I am on the total on Wednesday. I am not sure of a winner, but the total will go over.

The Celtics have dropped two straight and are now at the end of a six-game road trip. I made the mistake of backing this team last night when they lost to the Clippers 113-93. After winning 17 out of 19 games, Boston has now been outscored by 36 in the losses to LA and Golden State.

All five games so far on this road trip have stayed Under. The Under is now 11-3 in Celtics’ road games this season. There are even more trends that support an Under play tonight against the Lakers. When the total is 230 or higher (as it is for this game) for a Celtics game this season, the Under is 8-1. That includes a perfect 7 for 7 on the road.

The Lakers had been one of the league’s better defensive teams at the start of the season, but have since fallen to the middle of the pack. They are 6-1 to the Over in their last seven games, but almost all of those were played on the road. 

I know Boston’s offense has been historically great to start the year. But at the end of a long road trip, it could be “tired legs” time. Especially on the second night of a back to back, a situation where they’ve admittedly thrived, but none of the previous instances were like this at the end of a long trip. Earlier in the trip, in a back to back, they went Under vs. Toronto.

As expected, money seems to be on the Over for this nationally televised matchup. But I think there’s some real value in taking the Under, given not only Boston’s situation but the fact the Lakers just returned home from their own long road trip. 10*

Here’s a spread that I don’t get. New Orleans, who now owns the best point differential in the entire NBA, is only laying a bucket to Utah? I realize that the Jazz have exceeded expectations to start the 2022-23 campaign, but they’ve recently dropped two straight and 8 out of their last 11. The Pelicans have won their last seven games.

When these teams played back in October, the Pelicans went off as eight-point home favorites. The Jazz ended up winning 122-121 in overtime. However, that was a fluky game where both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson got hurt. 

Ingram remains out for New Orleans, but it hasn’t mattered as the Pelicans just beat the Suns twice. This team ranks 4th in the league in offensive efficiency and is going against a Jazz team that is bottom five in defensive efficiency. 

Utah gets a lot of its points via second chance opportunities, but New Orleans is clearly the better rebounding team here and will limit the number of offensive rebounds for the Jazz. 

Utah has been missing a number of key players recently, but that alone does not excuse the recent skid. I simply think the oddsmakers set a bad number for this matchup. The Jazz are likely to continue regressing while the Pelicans are a top five team in the league. Lay it! 10*

Boston is looking  to bounce back from what was just their third loss since November 4th. The Celtics took it on the chin Saturday, losing by 16 at Golden State. The trends support a play on them here as this season has seen the team go 4-1 SU off a loss and they are outscoring their opponents by 7.4 points/game in this spot.

This is a double revenge spot for the Celtics, who lost both meetings to the Clippers last year. Road favorites playing with double revenge have hit 61% since 2018-19 and road favorites off a loss vs. an opponent off a win are hitting 60% over the last decade.

The Clippers are healthy now, but even so, Boston is the better team here. No team can match the Celtics’ scoring differential or net efficiency this season. They also have a historically great offense while the Clippers are 27th in offensive efficiency. 

The Clips have been shooting better from three recently, but Boston has been elite at defending the three-point line. The Golden State result was the exception to that rule. 

No Al Horford tonight for Boston, but they are 6-1 with him out of the lineup. Also, while the Celtics are playing a fifth consecutive road game, the Clippers have been busy as well. Tonight marks their fourth game in six days and fifth in the last eight days. Kawhi Leonard, set to play for just the ninth time tonight, is on a minutes restriction and posting career-worst numbers. The Celtics are 5-0 SU this season on the front end of a back to back. 10*

Two teams trending in very different directions meet Monday night in Las Vegas with Arizona State taking on Creighton. 

The unranked Sun Devils have won seven in a row (6-1 ATS) since taking their only loss of the season, which was by a single point, in overtime, to Texas Southern. While the loss of Marcus Bagley (“stepped away from the team”) has hurt ASU a bit offensively, this team gets it done with defense. They are 17th in defensive efficiency at KenPom and top 10 in both 2-point and 3-point FG% defense. 

Meanwhile, #21 Creighton is reeling right now, having dropped four in a row after a 6-0 start. Worth monitoring is the status of Ryan Kalkbrenner, who missed the last game due to an illness. Without Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays lost 83-80 to BYU. His replacement in the starting lineup, Frederick King, had just four points and no rebounds in 18 minutes. BYU dominated them in the paint, 42-24. 

Even if Kalkbrenner is able to go tonight, I still like Arizona State. It’s pretty darn impressive - at least to me - that they are 9-1 straight up despite shooting only 30% from three-point range. Sooner or later, the three-point shooting will improve and then the Sun Devils will be even tougher to stop. 

Based on how this line has moved, it looks like Kalkbrenner is going to play. But still, I am taking the points in what should be a close game. Though three of Creighton’s four straight losses ended up close (five points or less), they really didn’t look good in any of them. ASU’s defense carries them to another cover and possibly another SU win. 10* 

The Cardinals put points on the board when they face mediocre defenses, but that hasn't guaranteed a win by any means.  When they face a top defense, and there haven't been many lately, they struggle to score at all.  It isn't as if Murray or the Cardinals' offense has excelled in any offensive areas.  Murray has been average in passing yards for, and worst in the NFL in yards per attempt and completion. He might be more difficult against the Patriots as a rusher.  The Patriots have struggled to contain running quarterbacks in the past. Wheels or not, I have confidence that New England will shut down Murray and the Cardinals offense.
Points have come at a premium as the Patriots have averaged just 15 per game in their last three starts, but that included both the Bills (4th ranked D) and the Jets (6th ranked D.). Against weaker defenses, the Patriots have but up 52 points total.  I has been an exaggerated pattern all season.  New England scores big against weak defenses, and not at all vs dominant ones.
The Cardinals are ineffective vs the pass, giving up the 30th ranked points and a passer rating of 107 in their last three games.  They do blitz but have just 23 sacks to date.  This is not really a meaningful game for Arizona, and much there is a sizable amount of distraction on the sidelines.  The Patriots are still in a wild card position if they can reverse their fortunes this week.  Watch the Patriots limit Murray and the Cardinals offense, while scoring enough points to win and cover.

The 4-6 Flames are very poor on the road this season at 3-6, including 4 straight road losses.  They are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights before returning home, and are 0-4 in similar situations.  The Canadiens also 4-6 , are 4-0 against Flames, winning recently  in Calgary in early December.  It should be Markstrom vs Allen in net tonight.  Markstrom has not been his dominant self this season, slipping to the #2 position in Flames net-minders.  The Habs' net-minder Allen has been hot of late. 

The Flames are a very large favorite today.  They'll be a tired club, off an overtime loss, facing a very well-coached but uneven young club, with a record equal to Calgary's. The Canadiens are better rested and finally starting to get some players returning from injury.  Given the situation and odds, I'm taking the Canadiens on the puck line at +1 1/2.

The Capitals returned home for just a single game, and are now back on the road again.  At 5-8, they aren't the best of road teams this year, and they face a very tough Jets team who are 10-3 at home.  With Kuemper out to injury, Lindgren has filled in, often admirably.  He'll face tough competition in the net from the Jets' stellar goal-tender Hellebuyck.   The Capitals have a long list of players out to injury at the moment, and struggle to score this year, with just a 27th ranked offense and 21st PP.  The Jets are 8-2 L10, healthier, and very tough on defense, but also overachieving on offense, with a goals-for average of nearly 5 in those 8 wins.
Wager on the high-flying Jets to keep up those winning ways today.

The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week.  Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense.  The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'.  They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass.  The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week.
I expect a cautious approach from Purdy and the 49ers offense on Sunday, possibly running the ball more than they have lately.  The Bucs' defense is just behind the 49ers in points given up, and 4th in sacks. As much attention as the QBs have received this week, Sunday's game is much more likely a battle between a pair of top defenses.  Take the total to go under.

Marquette’s only game over the last eight days was a 90-78 win over NC Central. They did not cover the large 19.5-point spread. Prior to that the Golden Eagles turned in a monster performance against Baylor (won 96-70) but then lost in overtime to Wisconsin (80-77). They come into Sunday at 7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS overall.

Pretty similar deal with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have played just once over the last eight days and they failed to cover in a tighter than expected 81-75 victory over Boston U. Before that they upset Michigan State, then lost outright to Syracuse, both here at home. 

So it seems like a pretty even matchup Sunday at 4:30 ET on ESPN2. But it’s pretty telling that Marquette is favored. They are the better team. In terms of offensive efficiency, the teams have pretty similar ratings (28th for Marquette, 26th for ND). But defensively, Marquette is far ahead (67 vs. 174). 

Look for the Golden Eagles to do damage from three-point land. That’s where they get roughly one-third of their scoring. They average 9.3 makes per game. The Notre Dame defense is allowing 35% three-point shooting for the season, which is outside the Top 200.

Let’s go back to that final score vs. Boston U. ND won 81-75. The Irish are 0-3 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80 or more points. They gave up 46 points in the second half to the Terriers. Marquette was almost up 30 in the second half of their last game. 10*

The Raven are an underdog in Pittsburgh, missing Lamar Jackson for at least this game.  Huntley filled in well against a tough Broncos defense, passing for 187 yards and throwing for a high completion rate, while running efffectively and getting the game-winning TD. We will likely see more of a pass-focused attack from Huntley, which is a benefit vs the Steelers.  The Steelers are tough against the rush, but one of the worst teams in the league when defending against the pass. They don't even pressure passers consistently with just 22 sacks, including only one last week.  The Steelers' big defensive weapon, TJ Watts is questionable and likely compromised for this week.

 Rookie QB Pickett has shown much better in recent weeks, but against relatively poor defenses.  The Ravens are easily a top ten defense, very good at limiting points and third down conversions. The Steelers rushed for over 150 yards last week but no one runs successfully against the Ravens.  While they are looser (but improving) in passing yards allowed, they will be tough on the young quarterback, with 37 sacks on just a 19% pressure rate.   

The Ravens are a large step above any defense that the Steelers have shown well against, and Pittsburgh may have much more trouble moving the ball. Considering the Steelers' pass defense, Huntley and the Ravens may show quite well against the Steelers on Sunday.  Take the Ravens to cover, if not win.

The Lions are favored and it is not really a surprise by the numbers. No team has improved as much on offense this year as the Lions.  Their points-scored total has improved by a touchdown in recent games and they have been brilliant in the red zone.  They trail the Vikings in only one offensive category (rush yards per attempt) over the last three games.  The Vikings have experienced some drop-off on offense, especially in pass categories in recent games.  Some of this decline can be explained by their competition; they've faced 4 top-ten defenses in their last 4 games, and still won 3 of them.
The Lions have been notorious this season for poor defense, but there has been a recent improvement.  They have seen their points allowed drop by a TD in their last three games, and they held the Jags and Giants to under 18 points.  They've seen their passer pressure stats improve as the Vikings' have retreated.  Much of this increase is a result of the Lions controlling the game on offense.  The offense was on the field 61 % of the time last week, and this against a tough Jags pass defense.  The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the league, allowing an average of 345 passing yards in their last three games.  They even allowed Mac Jones a 120 passer rating.  Goff has hit his stride, is well protected, and doesn't throw the ball away. I don't believe this is a very good match-up for the Vikings in spite of their much superior record. This may be a high scoring game, but I fully expect the new improved Lions to win and cover on Sunday.  

The Bulls have a key advantage coming into this Saturday night tilt and that’s they’re rested while Dallas just lost a heartbreaker last night at home to Milwaukee.  

Now the Bulls have been woefully inconsistent all year with their longest win streak at just two games. They did win last time out, which was Wednesday, beating Washington 110-107. But the Bulls did not cover, dropping them to 0-4 ATS L4 games.

But they did lead most of the way against Washington, only briefly trailing a couple of times after the first quarter. That was a home game for the Bulls, as is this. I’ll point out that the Bulls have played a pretty tough schedule to this point.

Going from home to the road, in the second night of a back to back, off two straight one-point games is just a terrible situation for these Mavericks. Especially after they were outscored 33-21 in the fourth quarter last night.  This team has also been inconsistent and them going 10 of 24 from the free throw line last night should give you pause.

On the road, the Mavs are only 4-8 SU and 3-7 against the spread. Last night was also a late game, which doesn’t help. 10*

This game is being played in Atlanta (State Farm Arena) as part of the 2022 “Holiday Hoopsgiving” event. 

It’s not been a great start to the year for Loyola, who is 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. But I do think this is a good time to back the Ramblers, plus the points, as they are facing a Clemson team due for some shooting regression after sinking 50% (or better) of their FG attempts in four straight games. 

Clemson has just two losses and both were close games. They lost by two at South Carolina (their only true road game so far) and then by three to Iowa in the Emerald Coast Classic (which was played down in Florida).  But the Tigers have had their fair share of close victories as well. Beating Penn State required two overtimes and earlier this week they escaped a game with Towson, winning by just five.

Loyola started this season ranked in the Top 60 over at KenPom but have now dropped outside the Top 100. Like I said it’s a good buy low spot as this team is definitely better than what its shown. This was a Sweet 16 team last March, much to the delight of Sister Jean (now 103 years old). 

Clemson only beat Cal (who is horrible) by eight.  Loyola has had some close losses and this will be only the second time they’ve been an underdog so far.  Not sure I’m ready to buy Clemson just yet, despite its 8-2 record. They won’t continue to hit 42% from three, moving forward.  Take the points. 10*

The 7-3 Lightning have been money in the bank against sub-.500 teams and at home this season, and have an enviable record against today’s opponent, the Panthers. It is hard to think of Florida as underachievers, but they are definitely sub-par on defense. Tampa bests them on offense, and has a distinct advantage on special teams, pitting their 3rd ranked PP against a 20th ranked Panthers PK. Florida continues to struggle on the road this season. They have Bobrobski in net, who was fine in his last start, but has had some shockingly poor games this season. Vasilevskiy will likely start for Tampa. He has been very sharp after a brief rough patch in November.

Tampa is the healthier of the two teams and look to continue their fine record against the Panthers tonight. Take Tamp to win.

Portugal, without Ronaldo, played with remarkable skill and flair, and absolutely crushed the Swiss in the round of 16.  They now face Morocco, the upstart of the tournament, who despatched Belgium 2-nil, then held off Spain to win on penalty kicks.  Looking at the possession times, it would be easy to think that Morocco's victory was pure luck, but that wasn't the case.  Spain did control the ball but could not penetrate a very tough Moroccan defense, and the Atlas Lions had solid opportunities to score on the counterattack.  This is a very well-coached and disciplined North African squad who have now captured the hearts of Africa and the Arab world. They have allowed just one goal to date in the tournament; they put the ball in their own net vs Canada.  They have an excellent goaltender in Bounou, and have shown that they can attack and finish in their own right.

It is hard to imagine Portugal struggling against the 22nd ranked club after their superlative showing against Switzerland, but do not underestimate the Moroccan side.  Look for the Lions to play a controlled defensive game, and watch for their counterstrikes.  I'm wagering on Morocco at +1.

The Oilers are 5-2 L7, but are averaging just over .500 at home this year.  They lost to the Wild in Minnesota a week ago, so will be looking for pay-back in tonight's game.  The Oilers struggle historically vs the Wild.  Edmonton has their big guns, plus Nugent-Hopkins, but secondary scoring is an issue, along with defense (22nd rated) and PK (28th rated).  Campbell likely starts in net tonight for the Oilers.  He is struggling, with a 4.12 goals against avg. and .872 save %, and it appears the #1 goalie torch has been passed to Skinner.

The Wild also have an underachieving goalie in Fleurie, who has allowed more than 4 goals a game in his last starts and has a save % of under .900 this year.  The 6-2 Wild have been overachieving on offense lately, averaging over 4 goals a game while allowing at least 3 goals against in their last 6 games.  They have gone over the total in 7 straight.  We have also seen "over-achievement" with the Oilers.  Neither team could be called  defensively fixated.  Expect a free-wheeling affair tonight and take the over.

Gonzaga is now just 2-7 against the spread this year, including 0-5 the last five games. I played against the Zags in their last game, which saw them barely get by Kent State, here at home. The market remains too high on this team and I’ll take the points against Friday with Washington coming to Spokane.

Washington is off a 73-63 win over Colorado that squared away their Pac 12 record at 1-1. The Huskies have already beaten the “other” top WCC team, that being St. Mary’s, and did so in impressive fashion by going to a neutral site and prevailing 68-64 as a 10-point underdog. Overall, the Huskies are 7-2 straight up (better record than Gonzaga!) and have covered four of their last five games. 

Now Franck Kepnang is done for the season for Washington, due to a knee injury, which is a major blow. But this team plays terrific defense, which will keep them in a lot of games like this one. Huskies’ opponents are shooting only 26% from three. 

They are also great at forcing turnovers, notable because Gonzaga comes in having given the ball away on 19.4% of its possessions this season. The Zags have also been bad when it comes to fouling. Washington already gets to the FT line at a decent rate and is shooting 75% there. 

An in-state rivalry, this game means more to UW, who has lost six straight times to the Zags. I expect the underdog to hang around in this one. Take the points. 10* 

Cleveland is having itself an awesome start to the season with a top five record in the league, not to mention a top three point difference and net efficiency rating. I expect the Cavaliers’ early season success to continue on Friday when they host the Sacramento Kings.

Now the Kings are also somewhat of an early season success story as they are in the top six out West, not a place anyone is accustomed to seeing them. But defensively, they have issues. They’re a bottom 10 team defensively and still give up 116 points/game. 

When they went to Milwaukee on Wednesday, the Kings allowed 126 points and lost by double digits. That’s not the way they wanted to start this six-game road trip.

The Cavs, on the other hand, are the league’s best defensive team. They are also 13-4 ATS as a favorite this season and 10-1 ATS at home. 

None of Cleveland’s last six points have been able to score more than 102 points. Jarrett Allen being back really helps on the defensive end of the floor. We’ll have to monitor two questionable players - De’Aaron Fox for Sacramento and Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland - but at the end of the day, the Cavs’ edge defensively will be too much for the Kings to overcome. Lay the points. 10*

Brazil's offense dominated vs South Korea, running up a 4-0 lead, before coasting to the win.  Not so Croatia, whoa along with two scoreless draws, have almost been forced into the attack with two come-from-behind situations vs Japan and Croatia.  Japan  showed defensive lapses at times in the tournament; Croatia will not get the same opportunities against a tough Brazilian defense.  Brazil will not want to allow this game to go to penalty kicks as Croatian net minder Livakovic was very sharp in that siuation.

Neymar appears healthy, and the entire team was loose and superbly effective against a badly out-matched Korean squad.  Brazil has had good success vs Croatia in the past, and is rightly a very large favorite. Croatia is an aging squad; Modric, now 37 was subbed against Japan, before extra time. Take Brazil on the point spread at -1 1/4.

Utah has won three in a row and covered four in a row to get to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Look for the Utes to win handily tonight against a Jacksonville State team that’s coming off some close calls and not really used to this level of competition.

Jacksonville State last played on Saturday. They went on the road and beat E Tenn St 63-61 as a 2.5 point underdog. Leading the way was Skyelar Potter with 27 points. He’s the team’s leading scorer. Notable, however, were two things. The Gamecocks really benefited from E Tenn St going 8 of 26 from three-point range. There was also a +10 advantage in free throw makes and attempts, a rarity for the ROAD team in College Basketball.

Prior to beating E Tenn St, the Gamecocks had played three other true road games. They’d lost all of them and were blown out twice, losing by 18 at New Mexico and by 42 at Alabama. In the KenPom ratings, Utah is higher than all previous Jacksonville State opponents with the exception of ‘Bama. 

Jacksonville State needs to hit their threes to have any chance. But Utah is holding opponents to 22.5% shooting from behind the arc this season and allows fewer than one point per possession overall. Remember this game is at elevation, which should make it tough on the JSU shooters.

Utah has gotten off to a 2-0 start in Pac 12 play, beating Arizona and Washington State. If they can beat Arizona by 15 here at home, they should be able to win by the necessary margin here tonight. 8*

The Rams, at home to the Raiders this week, are in a pretty deep hole, missing Kupp, Stafford, Donald and a host of others, and with possibly Baker Mayfield at QB.  The Rams have almost abandoned their pass-first offense, with rush plays shifting from 38% for the season to over 50% in the last three weeks.  Against Seattle, they had considerably more rush yards (171) than pass yards (148).  However it is not just the passing game that is struggling.  There is almost no area on defense that hasn't declined significantly in the last three games.  The Rams have allowed over 300 yards passing, 26 points against and a passer rating of 111 L3.  Rush yards have remained consistent mainly because opposing teams are jumping on the Rams' poor pass defense.
As much as the Rams' defense has faltered, the Raiders appear finally to be returning to form. The Raiders' defense has improved dramatically in red zone defense, rush yards allowed, and yards per rush attempt of late.  The one area they are still weak in remains against the pass, but they have toughened up in passer pressure, and saw their sack total rise to 5 last week. It would be very surprising if the Rams pass game put much on the board this week, irregardless of the defense.  On offense, Carr has been well protected lately, and the Carr to Adams connection is as good as any in the league.  The Raiders' yards per completion soared to over 15 1/2 last week, so the Rams will have to look out for a very explosive pass offense.  Vegas running back Josh Jacobs has been a big part of the renaissance, and while he is questionable, the league's top rusher is still expected to play.
There will likely be many Raiders fans in attendance this week, hoping to revel in how the Mighty Rams have fallen.  The line is Raiders -6.5, which seems high, but doing the math, surprisingly do-able for a surging Raiders team not completely out of the wild card picture at the moment.  Take the Raiders to win and cover. 

The Jets roll into St. Louis on the upswing, piling up 27 goals in those five wins.  For a team known for its defense (4th), PK (4th), and stand-out goal-tending, that extra offense is a huge  plus.  Hellebuyck, after an off-season last year, has been a game changer this season, winning fives straight, with a fine .933 save percentage.

The Blues are struggling at 2-6 and have been allowing more than 5 goals a game of late.  With a 29th ranked defense and the worst PK in the league, this is not surprising.  Binnington, who started hot, has now lost 6 straight games in net. 

The Blues are just 3-6 vs teams over .500, while the Jets are 8-2 in their division, and a  superlative 12-3 in St Louis.  Take the Jets to continue their fine play with another road victory.

The Canucks were down 0-4 and rallied to win 7-6 in OT in their last game.  They are a frustrating team but can put the puck in the net both on five on five and on the PP. It is keeping the puck out of the net that is their problem with a 30th ranked defense and now an injury to their #1 goaltender Demko.  Back-up net-minder Martin did not inspire confidence on Sunday; he was pulled after allowing 4 goals on 8 shots.

They are on the road against a 2-8 Sharks team, who are also a dismal 2-8 at home this year.  The Sharks are weak on offense, scoring under 3 goals a game but will get their opportunities against the Canucks' defense.  The Sharks have given up 11 goals in their last two games, and will likely have Kakhonen and his uninspiring .882 save % in net.  The Canucks had his number in their 4-3 victory in November.  
Look for the Sharks and Canucks, two of the poorest defending teams in the league, to go over the total on Wednesday.

Brooklyn has gone Under in five straight games, but in each instance the number was higher than it is here. I like this game vs. Charlotte to go Over the total.

Since Steve Nash was fired, the Nets’ defense has improved tremendously as they are fourth in efficiency. But one thing they still don’t do well is rebound the basketball. They are dead last in the league in defensive rebounding rate at 68.8%.

Charlotte is seventh in offensive rebounding rate, so I see them getting plenty of second-chance opportunities in this matchup. 

You also have to think Brooklyn is going to shoot the ball a lot better here than it did vs. an elite Boston team on Sunday. The Celtics held the Nets to a field goal percentage of 40.5. They had previously topped 50% in eight of nine games. 

The Hornets have scored 117 in two of their last three games. But they too had issues giving up offensive rebounds in a loss to the Clippers on Monday. LA grabbed 13 offensive boards, leading to 25 second-chance points. They finished with 119 points overall, winning the game in the final minute. 10*

Michigan State has lost two in a row, both as favorites, and failed to cover three straight. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games. They’ve played a ton of close games so far with four decided by four points or less and that does not even include a double overtime win against Kentucky.

Speaking of double overtime games, Penn State just lost one of those, 101-94 at Clemson last week as part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge. They’ve been off ever since, so that’s a bit of an edge in the Nittany Lions favor as MSU has played two times since that Penn State-Clemson loss took place.

I don’t really want to fade Sparty off back to back losses though, so let’s look at the total. The number has been bet up, which makes sense when you consider the final score of that Penn State-Clemson game and the fact MSU has gone Over in six of its last seven. But Penn State had gone Under in five straight prior to losing to Clemson.

Michigan State has put up just 115 points in the last two games combined and is still without Malik Hall. Their biggest concern here is defending the three-point line as PSU is shooting 40.4% from deep, including 46.2% at home. The thing is, I can’t see those numbers continuing, regardless of how well the Spartans defend in this game.

Both teams are playing slow this year, ranking 284 and 299 in pace respectively. I see value on the Under. 8*

San Jose State just got absolutely waxed by Arkansas over the weekend, losing by 41. After taking a shellacking like that from a Top 10 team, I worry about the Spartans’ psyche heading into this game against Cal State Bakersfield where the oddsmakers are asking them to win by a decent margin. 

Now things didn’t go so well for CS Bakersfield in their last game either. They lost to Dartmouth by 25. That was just the second double digit loss for the Roadrunners though and the first came at Utah. 

CS Bakersfield was just 3 of 12 from three in that last game. Expect them to improve on that number here as SJSU is allowing teams to make 37.3% from behind the arc.

The Spartans are also a bad free throw shooting team (64.3%), which is yet another reason to want to fade them as a favorite. 

So in a battle of two teams off blowout losses, I’ll grab the points. It’s a low total, so with points likely at a premium it seems wise to be on the dog. The number has even dropped a bit, but there’s still plenty of value here. 10*

Love the spot here for St. Joe’s heading into this “Big 5” matchup with Philly rival Temple on Tuesday. The Hawks just suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson while Temple is coming off three consecutive wins/covers. That’s opened up some real value on the underdog in this matchup.

St. Joe’s was a 12-point favorite when they lost to Fairleigh Dickinson. They were blitzed, giving up 97 points as FDU somehow shot an incomprehensible 57.6% from the field including 12 of 24 from three. I don’t see Temple doing that here.

While the Hawks have lost three of the last four games overall, including both when they were favored (also vs. USF), they do hold an outright win (as 5.5-point dogs) over another city rival (Penn) during that same stretch. 

While Temple has covered three in a row as a favorite, they were 0-3 ATS laying points prior to the current streak. Just don’t think the Owls are a team built to win by margin, at least not consistently. 

A key thing to watch in this game is that Temple really struggles to defend the pick and roll. St. Joe’s is a top 60 PNR offense. Take the points. 10*

Interesting matchup here as Kent State is a perfect 7-0 against the spread while Gonzaga is just 1-6 ATS its last eight games.

I’m assuming that at some point the market will catchup with these two teams. But I’m not sure it has here. Gonzaga is coming off a major gag job against Baylor last Friday where it blew a seven-point lead in the final 93 seconds. 

I suppose there is an argument, coming off a loss like that, the Zags will be fired up and looking to take their frustrations out. But do we really think they’ll be THAT motivated by a visit from Kent State, after losing a rematch of the Title Game from two years ago and a four-run down in Portland?

The underdog, on the other hand, should be really fired up and ready to go. This is a team that only lost by five at Houston (49-44) and its only two losses are by a combined seven points.

Yes, Gonzaga’s ability to score is always a concern. But Kent State is 12th nationally in 2-point FG% defense and top six in forcing turnovers. The Golden Flashes could have pulled the outright upset at Houston had it not been for some woeful shooting from three-point range (6 of 29) and Sincere Carry (who was 2 of 22). Take the points. 10* 

The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games.

Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles.

Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under.

The Celtics are an amazing 15-2 straight up over their last 17 games, but I think we’re catching them in a good spot (to fade) here in Toronto Monday night. This is the second night of a back to back for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, who defeated Brooklyn last night by a score of 103-92.

Teams off a win the previous day, playing in Toronto, are just 14-24 ATS (36.8%). 

Leading scorer Pascal Siakam is back for the Raptors, but he’s not the only one that turned in a big game Saturday against Orlando. O.G. Anunoby matched his season-high with 32 points in that game as the Raptors won convincingly, 121-108 and covered the spread as 11-point favorites. 

Boston has yet to lose in the second night of a back to back this season, which won’t continue. They are without their two best defensive players right now, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. Shockingly, they still held the Nets to just 92 points on Sunday, a season-low for a Celtics’ opponent.

But don’t expect a repeat of that here. Toronto shot 56% as a team against Orlando. The Raptors are rested and ready here and at home where they are 9-2 SU and +5.5 points/game. Take the points. 10*

Vegas is in first place in the Pacific Division, and have an enviable road record, but I am not convinced of their "worthiness" this year.  They are barely over .500 in their last 10 games, losing to the Canucks and Kraken in their last five games.   Meanwhile the Bruins, who are full marks for their first place position, are 9-1 L10, and have yet to lose at home.  Boston has played the Avs, Canes and Lightning in their last three games and allowed just 4 goals.  This is not so surprising, considering they are first in goals-against, as well as tops in goals-scored.  They are also 2nd in PP, while facing a Knights team that is 24th ranked in the PK.  Rookie net minder Thompson should play for the Golden Knights tonight.  He has been very solid, if a bit uneven this season.  Not so Ullmark, Boston's goalie, who has been sharp and consistent all season.

Look for the Big Bad Bruins, who are also the healthier of the teams, to extend their home win streak. Boston to win outright.

Japan faces a very experienced Croatian side, who other than a dominant come-from -behind 4-1 drubbing of Canada, have been rather stolid so far, with a pair of nil-nil draws.  In spite of their loss to Costa Rica, Japan has impressed with a full throttle 4 goal qualifying round including victories over Spain and Germany.  The Samurii Blue are not timid, and have counterattacked and finished against two top teams.  I like their chances to score again on Monday, forcing Croatia into opening up on offense.  Japan is inexperienced, young, but very fast and will not be cowed, and will take it to the older Croatian side.  Look for the total to go over 2, with both sides scoring.  Third goal will decide it.

The Lakers seem to be back on track. They just beat the Bucks on Friday, which was their seventh win in the last nine games. What was most impressive about beating the Bucks was that LA scored 133 points against the top rated defense in the league. Anthony Davis had 44 points while LeBron went for 28.

Washington is trending in the opposite direction right now. They’ve lost two straight and five of their last six. In each of those last six games, the Wizards have allowed 110 or more points. They went off as four-point favorites in the 117-116 loss to Charlotte on Friday.

The Wiz have not been blown out during this recent downturn, but there is no denying the fact they are trending in the wrong direction. They were down double digits for most of the second half against Charlotte after surrendering 72 first half points.

The Lakers, a top 10 team defensively, have posted their two highest scoring games of the season in the last week. 

Washington doesn’t do a good job at defending the three (37% allowed) and the Lakers should also own the paint in this matchup. I expect another big offensive night from LeBron and company against a team that is just 3-7 ATS when favored this season. 10*

Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game between Oregon and UCLA on Sunday, but I say “not so fast.” Yes, the Ducks are 16-5 Over L21 road games and 30-14 Over L44 conference games. And, yes, the Bruins have gone Over in five straight. But I believe this number to be too high. 

Oregon’s highest scoring game of the year was a 74-70 loss to Michigan State. Their games are averaging 133.1 points/game so far, which is well below this total.

Now UCLA averages 82.6 points/game. But they are also only giving up 57.6 points/game at home. 

Oregon is the tallest team in the country and I expect that size to give UCLA problems at the offensive end. 

The Ducks are also playing pretty slow this season (237th in adjusted tempo) while UCLA is also outside the top 100 in that regard. Can’t imagine the Bruins will shoot as well here as they did in the last game vs. Stanford where they made their first eight shot attempts and ended up hitting almost 60% from the floor. Play the Under. 10*

St. John’s is still unbeaten, one of 14 teams in the country that can still say that, but I believe they’ll go down for the first time Sunday in Ames. Iowa State’s only loss was to one of the very best teams in the country (UConn), at a neutral site, and has continued to be an incredible story after going 2-22 SU two years ago.

Remember that the Cyclones have already defeated Villanova and North Carolina this season. They come in off a win over North Dakota - where they failed to cover as big 24-point favorites - but still won 63-44. Although laying points, we don’t need a big win here. 

This is the final game of the Big East-Big 12 Battle. So far, the Big East holds a 5-4 head to head edge after a couple of wins on Saturday (Villanova over Oklahoma, Xavier over W Virginia). But the real interesting thing is that the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up so far in this event, also covering the spread seven times.

St. John’s hasn’t really played anybody and this is their first true road game of the season. I’d say some of their numbers are misleading due to the lack of competition. The Red Storm did not cover in either of the last two wins, against Long Island or Niagara.

Iowa State is the better defensive team in this matchup. They are surrendering an average of only 56.3 points/game thus far and only 44.7 here in Ames! Look for the ‘Clones to hand the Johnnies their first loss of the season and cover the spread in the process. 10* 

The Titans face the Eagles, who are 4-1 at home, and on the rebound from a few weeks of indifferent play.  Their biggest concern is the alarming number of points they allowed against the Commanders and Packers. They are healthier this week and face a Titans team that does not put up a ton of points nor yards, nor do they control time of possession like the Commanders.  The Titans' offense is usually all about Henry and the run game, but that has not been the case lately.  The Titans have managed to rush for just 71 yards on average in their last three games, while running the ball just 42% of the game.  Tannehill has thrown the ball well over 100 yards more than the Titans' average, has been accurate and better protected in that time.  Facing the Eagles, the Titans might be better resorting to plan A, unless their is some issue with Henry.
The Eagles are just 18th vs the run but 2nd in passing yards allowed.  They will get to Tannehill (3rd in sacks)and are best in the league in takeaways.  As for the Eagles offense, this may be the game when we see Hurts return to his passing game.  In spite of the enormous success with the running game last week, the Eagles face a Titans team that is tough vs the run but 31st in passing yards allowed.  Let's not forget that the Eagles can be very good in the air, with the best offense in the red zone, and are 3rd in third down conversions.
I've  been on the Titans often this season with success, but I am afraid that they are catching an Eagles team on the upswing.  Henry's lack of success is troubling, and the Titans have some significant injuries this week.  Look for a better defensive game from the Eagles and  for Hurts to do what ever is required for victory.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

The Falcons are in 2nd place in a very weak NFL South, but have failed to break .500 despite many chances.  The Steelers are last in their division, but appear to be the team with some momentum, showing improvement in many offense and defense area.  The Falcons are all about the run,  4th in rushing yards, with a trio of running backs and a good rushing QB in Mariota.  This rushing success hasn't translated into points as the Falcons have seen their scoring drop precipitously in recent weeks.  The 7th ranked Steelers rush defense matches up well against a run-first offense, limiting rush yards to an average of 67, and yards/attempt to 3.1 in in their last three games.
The Steelers are getting improved play from rookie QB Pickett and RB Harris, and have seen their points scored take a 25% leap over the last three weeks, including a win against the Colts and and impressive game vs the Bengals.  The Pittsburgh defense is much tougher on quarterbacks, generating 3 sacks last week.  The Falcons are one of the league's lightweights in passer pressure, and had no sacks last week.
I underestimated the Steelers' improvement last week, and won't be burned again.  They have been much better in controlling the game, with 56% time of possession rate in the last three weeks. Look for continued improvement from Pickett and a improving defense against a stagnant Falcons team.  The Steelers to win and cover.

The Giants, at home to a commanding Washington team, have fallen on harder times lately.  Their fine running back Barkley hasn't been nearly as dynamic lately and the rush offense has dropped by 30 yards a game L3.  This is a huge concern in a rush-first offense.  Where the Giants real trouble lies is on defense, with significant decreases in effectiveness in numerous areas; points allowed, and red zone defense to name just 2 of many.   As much as the Giants' defense has struggled, the Commanders' has surged. They've seen a drop in points-allowed from 19 to 14, and opposing passer rating drop from 90 to 70, comparing last three games to season average.  The Commanders' most impressive stat in their recent surge is their ability to control games through time of possession. and I believe this will continue on Sunday.  Their rush game, from a variety of sources, may not be flashy but they consistently move the sticks enough to maintain possession.  Heinicke doesn't thrill anyone as a passer, but has been very well protected in recent games, and effective as a game manager.  The Commanders face a poor rush defense on Sunday; the Giants are just 26th and struggling against the run.  They've allowed significantly more pass yards lately and in spite of a blitz-heavy pass defense, they are just 26th in sacks.
I've been riding the Commanders all through their recent success and am a huge believer in their continued success in week thirteen.  It may be more of "winning by inches", but take the Commanders to win and cover again.

UNLV is undefeated (7-0). Only 14 other teams can still say that. The Runnin’ Rebels are allowing 57.7 points/game and have been off for a week. Look for them to roll tonight at San Diego.

San Diego has lost three times, twice by just two points. But those losses were to Utah Tech and Nicholls State, hardly the same level of competition they’ll face tonight.

The Rebels haven’t been the most prolific offensive team, but they are turning opponents over more than any team in the country. That leads to extra points that are critical when needing to cover as a favorite. They also don’t foul much.

San Diego is letting teams shoot 48% so the UNLV offensive effort should be better than normal tonight.

Not only are the Torerors 0 for their last 5 (straight up) as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points, but they are 5-24 SU L29 as a dog! UNLV is far superior than what this line suggests. 10*

Since 2005, no double digit favorite has lost a Power 5 Conference Championship Game (22-0 SU, 13-9 ATS). So Michigan should feel pretty comfortable about its path to the College Football Playoff. Honestly, even if they lost this game, they’d probably still end up in the top four.

I don’t think the Wolverines will lose this game outright, but I also don’t think we’ll be getting a repeat of last year’s Big 10 Championship Game where they destroyed Iowa 42-3 as a 12-point favorite.

As is the case here, Michigan was off a win over Ohio State and staring at a playoff berth going into last year’s title game. But they were also looking to make a statement on a national level and weren’t guaranteed a top four spot as they are here.

Last year, most looked at the number and thought Iowa was getting too many points. No one is saying that about an 8-4 Purdue team that sort of lucked into the Big West title. But I look for the Boilermakers to be competitive in this spot.  They are 7-6 SU vs. Top 25 opponents the last five years and have beaten Top 5 teams in the past. Also, teammates will rally around QB Aidan O’Connell, whose brother tragically passed away. 

Unranked underdogs have fared well recently in Conference Championships, going 14-6 ATS when matched up with a Top 25 opponent. Michigan is dealing with the distraction of felony gun charges being brought against DT Smith. RB Blake Corum is officially done for the season. Too many points here. 10* 

This is 1 of 5 regular season rematches this weekend. In case you were wondering, there’s been no real significant ATS edge for either team - the regular season winner or loser - in this situation. At least going back to 2005 there hasn’t been. That said, I do like Fresno State here to avenge a 40-20 regular season loss that took place right here on the blue turf.

The Bulldogs were 10.5-point underdogs when they came to Boise on October 8th. But some context must be provided. They were without QB Jake Haener and the drop off to the backup is significant. It was also FSU’s third straight road game and they’d been out East (UConn) the week prior. 

Fresno State hasn’t lost since, winning seven in a row and scoring 30 or more in each of the last six games. Haener is now back. The team won comfortably, 30-0, last week at home over Wyoming.

Boise State has also gotten a lot better since 10/8, thanks to Dirk Koetter being elevated to offensive coordinator and a change at QB to Taylen Green. The Broncos are 6-1 the last 7 games with the only loss coming out of conference, by a field goal, to BYU. However, they have been shaky in the last two games, winning by only three at Wyoming and then getting a miracle cover last week vs. Utah State. It’s rare that you can say that a team won by 19 points and maybe should have lost outright. But that was the case for the Broncos last week.

The underdog has covered in 7 of the last 8 MWC Championship Games. Fresno State is 4-0 ATS all-time in MWC Champ Games, three of those covers coming against Boise. Eight of the last nine times these teams have played, the underdog has covered. Underdogs have won seven of the nine “Group of 5” title games outright the last two seasons. Take the points here. 10*

Charleston has gotten off to a nice start at 7-1, which includes winning their home tournament. Now three of their wins (Richmond, Va Tech and Kent St) were all by three points. But remember that the Cougars’ only loss, to North Carolina, had a misleading 102-86 final score. The Cougs led that game into the second half. 

Now this will be Charleston’s first time leaving home since that loss to North Carolina and also their first time laying double digits this season. But I think they’ll be up for the “challenge” against The Citadel, who may be looking ahead to their own game vs. UNC in 10 days. 

The Citadel was blown out at Butler earlier this year, losing by 47. Since then, they’ve won three of four with the only loss by three points. But the level of competition has not been strong and I believe the Bulldogs are severely outclassed here. 

Charleston likes to play fast as they are inside the Top 50 nationally adjusted tempo. That’s going to be a problem for The Citadel, who only averages 67.7 points on 43% shooting when you remove non-DI competition. 

While the teams haven’t met since 2016, this is a bit of a local rivalry (campuses just 2 miles apart) and Charleston has captured the L10 meetings. They’ll look to win in blowout fashion here. 8* 

The Blue Jackets are 1-4 on the road this season, and you can add to that a long list of players who are black and blue, listed as out or questionable.  The surging Jets are 8-2 at home, and have won 3 straight including a 5-0 shutout of the Avs.  Winnipeg has been overachieving on offense, piling up 17 goals in their last three games, in spite of a seasons average 3.2 goals scored for the season.  Where the Jets usually thrive is on defense, goaltending and the penalty kill.  Columbus does not match up well.  They are 24th in offense and really suffer on defense and the penalty kill (30th ranked respectively)
The Jets Hellebuyck has re-found his form after something of a lost year last season.  He is a better bet than the Jackets' Korpisalo, who has been uneven this year.  I like the Jets' chances today.  Columbus is a big underdog in this matchup, and rightly so, considering injuries and road record.  Take Winnipeg and their recent offensive success on the Puck line at -1 1/2.  Great odds here.

Conference USA is up first on Conference Championship weekend as UTSA will HOST North Texas. These teams met in the regular season, here in the Alamodome, with UTSA winning 31-27. But North Texas still was able to cover as a 10-pt underdog. I like them to cover as an underdog again and possibly even win the game outright. The Mean Green are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season.

There were three touchdowns scored in the final 2:36 of that previous meeting, two by UTSA, including the game winner with just 15 seconds left on the clock. So North Texas was THAT close to pulling the outright upset, despite being -19 in first downs (32-13) for the game. I don’t see that FD disparity repeating itself this time. 

Now UTSA comes into this C-USA Title Game on a nine-game win streak overall. They have won all 10 games this season in which they were favored and done so by an average of 16.0 points/game. But that’s a little bit misleading. They had three blowouts over Texas Southern (FCS), La Tech and Rice. As a home favorite this season, UTSA is just 1-4 ATS.

Last week, the Roadrunners had to rally from way back to beat UTEP, 34-31. UTSA admittedly had nothing to play for in that game, but ended up having to score the last 20 points just to get the win. They fell behind 24-0 and got back in the game with a long INT return for TD. 

Including the win over North Texas, UTSA has had a fair number of close calls this season. Five of their wins have come by six points or less, two of those requiring overtime. Unranked underdogs like North Texas are on a 14-6 ATS (70%) run in these conference title games. Give me the points here as underdogs that have failed to cover at least two in a row coming into conference title games (applies to North Texas) are on a 19-4 ATS run, covering the spread by an average of almost 11 points/game.  10*

I’m going to call for a lot of points here as Pittsburgh and NC State open up the ACC portion of their schedules.  Take the Over.

Pitt has won four in a row - by an average of 21.5 points/game. Now beating Alabama State, Fairleigh Dickinson and William & Mary isn’t going to cause anyone to go running through the streets. But the Panthers did just hang 87 points on a Northwestern team that had previously been playing good defense. The total for that game was 128.5. That should tell you all you need to know about how Pitt performed offensively in that one.

North Carolina State is allowing opponents to hit 34.3% from three-point range. That is likely to be a problem for them against a Pitt team that is not only attempting 26 threes per game. Over the last five games, Pitt is shooting 38% from deep.

But where Pitt could run into some trouble here is turnovers. They are turning the ball over on 20.4% of their possessions. NC State turns teams over on 22.3% of possessions. 

The Wolfpack are top 35 in the country in both offensive efficiency and tempo. So they can score. Six of their games this season have gone Over. Pitt is 5-2 Over last 7. 10* 

The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?”

The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over.

The 3-7 Sabres won last night but gave up 4 goals with their best available net minder in goal.  Tonight's starter Luukkonen has played just 3 games this season, giving up more than 4 goals a game with a SV% of .845.
The 7-3 Avs were whipped by the Jets two nights ago, and won't be in a forgiving mood tonight.  Their offense has been surprisingly quiet this season, but it will absolutely break out, and tonight might just be the night. Colorado has the league's top PP, against a Sabres team that is 28th on defense and 26th in the PK. Buffalo has multiple goal-tenders out with injuries.  The Sabres can put the puck in the net, but face a very good Avalanche defense.
The Sabres are 1-6 in recent home games and 0-4 vs the  Avs at home as well.  Add playing on a back to back, with a 3rd or 4th line goalie, and you likely have an avalanche of sorts.  Take Colorado to win. A multiple goal victory wouldn't surprise me.

Delaware is only 3-3 but all three losses occurred away from home, one of them at Duke. In fact, this will be just the second home game for the Blue Hens with the first one being the season opener, which was a 78-54 win over non-DI Wilmington. Off the loss at Penn Sunday, I look for Delaware to bounce back tonight.

Cornell makes its two straight Ivy League opponents for Delaware, but the Big Red are not as good as Penn. They do play faster and that has led to 87.4 points/game during a five-game win streak. But those five wins have been against SUNY-Delhi, St. Francis (PA), Ithaca, Canisius and Monmouth. Not exactly a “murderer’s row” there. 

We’ve already seen this line tick up a bit and I completely agree with the move. I know Delaware struggled to get stops against Penn and that’s concerning when turning around and facing an offense like Cornell. But this being a home game is huge for the Blue Hens. 

They’ve won 16 of their last 24 games here and are also 22-6 straight up their last 28 games as a favorite. With such a short number, that seems worth mentioning. 

This is back to back road games for Cornell and while there’s been nearly a week between games, the Big Red simply can’t continue to shoot as well as they have. Lay the points. 10*

Canada was touted by some as something of a sleeper at the World Cup, but that hasn’t proven to be the case. They looked good vs an aging Belgium team, but were taken apart in the game vs Croatia. While managing to show some offense, they have struggled in the backfield with chaotic defending and less than exceptional goal tending. Morocco had stellar goal tending in their draw vs Croatia, and will likely have Bounou back vs. Canada. They were full measure for their 2-0 win against Belgium even with their back-up keeper in net, allowing Belgium very few opportunities on attack. Morocco is one of just two teams yet to concede a goal in this World Cup. With such a rare and excellent opportunity for Morocco to advance, they will not want to leave anything to chance. Look for an all-out push from the Moroccan team, handing, Canada its third straight loss.

Things are not looking good in Minnesota right now. Following three straight losses where the team posted a -11.9 net rating, the Timberwolves are a game below .500 and without Karl-Anthony Towns. 

But should the T’wolves be a dog at home against Memphis, who is still without Desmond Bane? I don’t think so. Dillon Brooks is also questionable to play tonight for the Grizzlies.

When these teams met in Memphis 19 days ago, the Grizzlies had Bane in the lineup and closed as only four-point favorites at home. They won 114-103 but I don’t think they should be laying a similar number, on the road, in tonight’s rematch.

The experiment with KAT and Rudy Gobert had not been working for Minnesota. So perhaps, short-term, KAT’s absence might be a positive. With one fewer big on the floor, the offense might open up and the T’wolves do turn the ball over less when KAT is not out there.

This will be the third time this year that Minnesota enters a game off three straight losses. They are 2-0 ATS the previous two times. Take the points against a Memphis team that is just 2-7 ATS on the road. 10*