The set-up: Memphis won't be rolling over here after losing two straight. Yes Houston has the better line-up, but it's playing the final game of a tough trip and it's off a terrible beatdown loss in Miami just last night. Beyond James Harden and Russell Westbrook, Houston gets thin pretty quickly. 

The pick: Memphis has lost two road games by an average of 24 points, while going 1-2 at home with an average margin of loss being at six. Houston is terrible defensively. It gave up 158 points to the Wizards in its first road game and then allowed 49% shooting to the Nets the following night. Note that Westbrook is OUT for this one as well. And finally note that the Rockets are 0-4 ATS already this year vs. teams with losing records (and 30-40 ATS the last two seasons), while Memphis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the generous points.

10* play on the Grizzlies.

The set-up: Nashville won four in a row, but it's since lost two straight. Clearly the Predators are going to be out to push the pace from start to finish as they look to get untracked. Overall the offense is averaging 3.86 GPG for the Predators, so I expect a return to the "norm" here vs. this suspect Red Wings' defensive unit. Detroit got off to a great start this season, but it's been all downhill since. One of the lone bright spots was its 5-3 win over the Predators in Nashville. 

The pick: The Wings won't be rolling over though either as they try to desperately get back into the win column. Detroit is averaging only 2.20 GPG, but goaltenders Jimmy Howard (2-6, 3.67 GAA) and Jonathan Bernier (2-4-1, 3.50) are both struggling mightily now as well. With each team pushing the pace from the opening face-off until the final horn, look for this one to fly over the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

10* play on the OVER Predators/Red Wings.

The set-up: Ottawa is 3-8-1. The main issues for the Sens is their penalty kill, which is the worst in the league with a 79.8 percent kill rate. Craig Anderson gets the call in net for the visitors and he's a sub-par 2-5-0 with a 3.90 GAA. 

The pick: New York is only 5-6, but it comes in off back-to-back victories. The Rangers have an average power-play success rate of 17.1 percent with an 81.4 percent penalty kill success rate. Note though that NY is 38-16 in its last 54 as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range, while Ottawa is 0-6 in its last six as an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. Ottawa is averaging nearly 12 minutes in penalties a game and it has the worst penalty kill in the league. Look for the surging Rangers to take advantage and lay the price with confidence.

6* play on the Rangers.

The set-up: So far every single Jazz came has fallen "under" the number this year. The Clippers have seen the total go under in three straight. These teams have played each other already this year and that total went "under" the number. The Jazz enter off a poor loss to the Kings and they'll be extra motivated here to get back on track after that pathetic performance. The Clippers average 114 PPG and they'll be looking to get the visitors out of their "comfort zone" by pushing the pace. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one finally sets up as more of a "shootout" than a defensive affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Utah has seen the total soar over the number in nine of its last 13 off an upset loss as a road favorite, while LA has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. With the Clippers indeed playing with revenge here as well, there's no question in my mind that this one has "high-scoring shootout" written all over it. Play the over.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Jazz/Clippers.

The set-up: Has New England been "tested" this year on the defensive side of the ball? So far the Patriots are putting up historic numbers defensively, but many pundits claim that they've yet to face a "real" offense. Baltimore's versatile pivot Lamar Jackson definitely is a challenge for any team, but I still believe that the Pats' unit will be more than "up for it." Note that Baltimore may be 5-2, but it's schedule certainly hasn't been "murderers row" to this point either. And will rest lead to rust? The Patriots are pounding out convincing wins each and every week, but the Ravens will have to quickly try to regain their form after the extra time off. Clearly the home side will have to get out and push the pace of this one if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset vs. the Pats' strong defense today. 

The pick: Note that New England has seen the total in five of its last seven as a road favorite of three points or less, while Baltimore has seen the total soar over in six of its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight. The overall situation combined with these strong O/U trends make the "over" the correct call here.

10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Pats/Ravens.

The set-up: The Capitals have seen the total go over in seven straight and when they defeated the Flames 5-3 in Calgary earlier in the season, that total also went "over" the number. Calgary enters off a 3-0 win over the Blue Jackets though, and could come into this one flat. The last thing the visitors can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to "hang" with the faster-paced home side though obviously. Cam Talbot gets the call in net for the visitors and he's 1-2-0 with a 2.46 GAA so far. He'll face opposite Washington's Braden Holtby, who has won four of his last five starts.

The pick: Note thought that Calgary has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Washington has seen the total dip under in 37 of its last 67 vs. teams with losing records. I expect Calgary to slow this one down as it tries to revenge the earlier setback at home and close out its four game trip on a high note. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Flames/Capitals.

The set-up: What do you base your picks on? For me, I like to remain flexible and don't follow any one single methodology. The Raiders have been arguably the biggest "surprise" team in the NFL this year, a lot more competititve than what most thought. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a "trap/letdown" for the home side. And that's because the Raiders haven't actually played a "home" game in the last five weeks (the only time in the last five weeks that Oakland was the "home" side was its game in London three weeks ago.) Now the players return home to their own beds and their families finally and I think that it's going to have a detrimental effect to their play on the field today.

The pick: Oakland has lost two straight as well. The Lions though come off a crucial 31-26 win over the Giants last weekend and they'll be laying everything on the line here as they try to keep pace with the Packers. Note as well that Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. clubs with losing records, while Oakland is a terrible 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. A great situational play on the Lions this weekend.

10* GAME OF MONTH on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: This is a "make or break" game for both teams in many respects. The Titans are 4-4 and the Panthers are 4-3. The Panthers were on a four-game win streak until last week's 51-13 setback to San Francisco. Tennessee enters off a 27-23 win over Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill was 21 of 33 for 193 yards and three TD's for the Titans last weekend. Panthers' QB Kyle Allen has filled in admirably for Cam Newton, entering with a 4-1 record and I think these two hungry QB's lay everything on the line today for their teams as they get out to push the pace from start to finish. 

The pick: Tennessee has seen the total go over in its last four as a road dog of seven points or less, while Carolina has seen the total soar over in nine 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low.

8* pick on the OVER Titans/Panthers.

The set-up: The Eagles come in off an impressive 31-13 win at Buffalo last weekend and I believe they carry that momentum over here. The Bears are trending in the opposite directoin after last week's 17-16 loss to the Chargers, their third straight.  

The pick: The Bears have been solid overall defensively, but they're ranked No. 27 on the offensive side. I believe the Bears' defense suffers a letdown here after three weeks of disappointment. The Eagles look rejuvenated after last week's performance and note that they're 8-2 ATS in their last ten vs. teams with losing records. Conversely note that the Bears are only 1-4 ATS in their last five off an upset loss as a favorite. There's no way the Eagles "look past" their opponent today, as this is a "must win" for the home side. Look for the Eagles to deliver the knock out blow to the Bears' playoff hopes today.

8* pick on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: Pittsburgh's won two straight over suspect competition, but I think it'll struggle here vs. the Colts defense. Indianapolis enters having won three straight, and I also believe that Pittsburgh's suspect defense will struggle in slowing down Jacoby Brissett's steady attack. Overall the Colts average 22.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. 

The pick: The Steelers average 21 PPG and they allow 20.6. Much of the Steelers success has come with RB James Conner shouldering the load, but he's questionable for this one and if he does play, one has to wonder about his health? Additionally note that the Colts are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after one or more straight losses against the spread (including 2-0 ATS this season), while the Steelers are a poor 8-11 ATS in their last 19 at home and a terrible 0-3 ATS in their last three after playing on Monday Night Football. Grab the points.

8* pick on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: The San Jose State Spartans are 4-4. Note that that's more victories than their last two season's combined. San Jose State needs two more wins to become eligible and I expect the home side to open up the playbook as it looks to pull off the upset. Boise State is 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country, but it'll be out to rebound here after a 28-25 loss to BYU last weekend. 

The pick: San Jose State QB Josh Love has been "under the radar" all season, as he comes in ranked No. 2 in the conference in passing yards and in eight games he's only thrown three INT's. The Spartans though are allowing the second most yards in the conference defensively (442.9), so Love has had to push the pace almost every weekend. Boise State has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 on the road, while San Jose State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after a road victory. The numbers and situation point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* play on the OVER Boise State/San Jose State.

The set-up: Portland returns home after a successful 3-1 season opening road trip. The Blazers only loss came to the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back situation. The Blazers are getting dominant play from Damian Lillard, who is averaging 29.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum is averaging 21. Note that the Blazers are 8-1 SU in their last nine at the Moda Center. The 76ers come to town without their top player in Joel Embiid as well, who is serving a suspension due to a fight he was involved in. 

The pick: Josef Nurcic is going to be able to operate vs. Philadelphia in the paint. Philly has plenty of talent and is a deep team as well, but the late West Coast game, combined with the loss of Embiid will prove to be just too much here to overcome in my opinion. Note as well that Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 100 or more points in its previous outing, while Philly is only 40-45 ATS in its last 85 after scoring 115 points or more. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trailblazers. 

The set-up: Both teams are desperate for a win here. UVA is 5-3 and UNC is 4-4. The Cavs enter off a 28-21 loss to Louisville. Despite the hiccup, UVA still averages 30 PPG, while allowing only 20.8. QB Bryrce Perkins had 233 yards and a TD last week, while RB Wayn Taulapapa had 54 rushing yards and two TD's. 

The pick: UNC lost 43-41 to Virginia Tech two weeks ago and then bounced back with a 20-17 victory over Duke last weekend. UNC posted 432 total yards of offense, including 205 on the ground, led by Javonte Williams with 111 rushing yards. The Tar Heels average 27.5 PPG and they allow 25.8. UVA though is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a road loss, while UNC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. I think the Tar Heels struggle vs. this tough UVA defense. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* play on UVA.

The set-up: The Bears are 6-1 and now eligible and while I'm not calling for an outright win here, I do think that the 3-5 ECU Pirates won't go down without a fight this evening. The Pirates also play with the added incentive of "revenge" after they were humbled 56-6 to Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats were last in action when they posted the 24-13 win over Tulsa to become eligible. So will rest lead to rust? I don't think it's going to help the Bearcats here. 

The pick: Yes ECU is 0-4 in confernece play, but it's faced some heavyweights early in UCF and Navy. The Bearcats average 28 PPG and they allow 20, while the Pirates average 21 PPG, while allowing 28.5. However note that the Bearcats are a poor 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road, wihle the home team is 6-1 ATS the last seven in this series. Expect the hungry revenge minded home side to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

8* play on ECU. 

The set-up: The Devils come in "gassed" here after their high-scoring 4-3 loss at home to Philadelphia. The Hurricanes destroyed the Wings 7-3 just last night as well. So while both teams did play to high-scoring affairs only 24 hours previous, I'm definitely expecting a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring game here. 

The pick: Both teams are playing their back-up goaltenders, but as mentioned off the top, from a situational stand point I think this one sets up well as more of a defensive contest. Also note that NJ has in fact seen the total go under the number in 32 of its last 52 vs. the division, while Carolina has seen the total dip below the posted number in 41 of its last 61 vs. division opponents. For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Devils/Hurricanes. 

The set-up: With a victory today UL Lafayette will move from 5-2 to 6-2 and therefore become eligible to play in a bowl game. Texas State is 2-5 and while it would love to draw motivation of playing "spoiler," I just don't see that happening today. With App State's outright loss last night, UL Lafayette will be extra motivated to run the table now as it looks to meet up with the Mountaineers in a revenge scenario in the championship game. 

The pick: The Bobcats are averaging only 18.1 PPG and QB Gresch Hensen will once again be sidelined with concussion after missing last week's loss to Arkansas State. The Cajuns have plenty of motivating factors working in their favor here, but also note that they're 4-1 ATS in their last five coference games and 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records, while Texas State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four conference contests. In my opinion, this one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

8* play on Louisiana Lafayette.

The set-up: I like 5-3 Pittsburgh to come in and deliver the goods with its sixth win of the year vs. 2-5 Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets come in off their bye week, while Pittsburgh enters off a blowout loss to Miami. Note though that the Panthers are 3-0 ATS on the road this year and they're 2-1 ATS at Boyd Dodd Stadium since 2012. Pittsburgh is ranked 43rd in the country in pass defense, but it won't have to worry too much vs. the Yellow Jackets triple option attack. 

The pick: Georgia Tech allows 220 yards on the ground this week, so Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett can take advantage of what the defense gives him this week and get back to some play action as the game wears on. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a conference rival, while Georgia Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm banking on the Panthers pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover and their elusive sixth victory.

8* play on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: Liberty is 5-3 and UMass is 1-7. The Minutemen were just crushed by lowly UConn last time out and while they'd love to play "spoiler" to the Flames here, who need just one more win to become eligible, I just don't see it happening. Liberty comes in off a humbling 44-34 loss to Rutgers as a favorite last time out and it'll not be taking anything for granted after that embarrassing performance. The Flames have to contain UMass RB Bilal Ally, but beyond him the Minutemen are thin. 

The pick: On the flip side, Flames' QB Stephen Calvert will have no issues moving the ball vs. this porous UMass secondary (note that Calvert has 2,164 passing yards, with 16 TD's and only three INT's.) UMass is also just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Liberty is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 200 yards or more in its previous game. I like Liberty to come in focussed and to dominate in all three phases. Lay the points.

8* play on Liberty.

The set-up: UCF is 6-2 and eligible for a bowl, but 3-5 Houston has its work cut out for it here as it lays everything on the line over the last month to get the job done. The Cougars looked good though against No. 16 SMU last week, despite eventually falling 34-31. Houston averages 30.9 PPG, but it allows 31.1. QB Clayton Tune is finally starting to look better though after having to fill in for injured starter D'Eriq King. 

The pick: UCF comes in off a 62-21 blowout win over Temple and I think it comes in a tiny bit complacent here vs. its lowly opponent. The Knights average 46.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. Clearly on paper QB Dillon Gabriel and the UCF have a signficant advantage, but note that the Knights are a terrible 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 21.5 points or more. Conversely, note that the Cougars are a solid 4-2 ATS already this season as a dog and 3-0 ATS in their last three off a close loss by seven points or less vs. a conference rival. No outright, but grab the points and expect a competitive battle. 

8* play on Houston.

The set-up: The Jazz are 4-1 and the Kings are 0-7. Neither team has been great offensively, with Utah averaging just 101 PPG, while the Kings have posted 98.6. Utah has the best defense in the league, while the Kings have one of the worst, allowing 115.6. 

The pick: While neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this season, I think that trend ends here. The desperate home side will be trying to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to get off the schneid. Utah doesn't have to play brilliant defense tonight to win this game either. Note as well that Utah has in fact seen the total go over in 16 of its last 25 as a road favorite of six points or less, while Sacramento has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five vs. good defensive teams which allow 98 points or less per contest. The situation and the numbers both point to this one going over before it's all said and done.

10* play on the OVER Jazz/Kings.

The set-up: The Canucks have been better than advertised to open the season, but I think they finally take a step back here after their 5-3 win in LA last time out. The Ducks have gotten out to a winning start as well this year and I believe they build off their recent 7-4 win over the Jets. 

The pick: The Canucks have the better numbers across the board over their counterparts today (offensive, defensive, goaltending, special teams), but not by much. And with a game in San Jose tomorrow night, I do think that Vancouver gets caught "looking ahead." Additionally note that the Canucks are still only 22-36 (-9.4 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous game, while the Ducks are 27-21 (+4.2 units) in their last 48 in the same position. All things considered, I think this is a great price on the hungry home side.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Anaheim Ducks.

The set-up: Detroit has played better than expected without star Blake Griffin in the line-up as it come sin at 2-3. The Pistons though looked poor in their most recent 125-113 road loss in Toronto. The Bulls though were expected to take a step forward this season, but so far their young talent has produced just a 1-4 record, including having lost three straight. 

The pick: Detroit is now also dealing with injuries to Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose. Additionaly note that Detroit is a terrible 12-28 ATS in their last 40 after failing to cover in three of its last four ATS, while Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after faling to cover the spread in three or more straight games. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.

8* play on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: Navy just became eligible after its 41-38 win over Tulane last weekend. UConn earned its first victory of the year in last week's 56-35 win over UMass. Malcom Perry and the Midshipmen are back in the bowls this season and after punching that crucial/important win, I believe that Navy does in fact come out a bit flat in this one. The Midshipmen average 37.9 PPG and they allow 19.7. 

The pick: UConn only averages 21.2 PPG, while allowing 37.8, but last week it posted 539 total yards of offense. Additionally note that Navy is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while the Huskies are 3-1 ATS in their last four as a home dog in the 21 1/2 to 28 points range. I'm banking on a closer than expected battle here, grab the points.

10* TRAIN-WRECK on Connecticut.

The set-up: The desperate Nets are poised to win this game outright in my opinion, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these teams has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. Houston comes in off a one point OT win in the Nation's capital vs. a terrible Wizards tam. Yes Houston has two fantastic players in James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but after that they get pretty thin. 

The pick: And in a "situation" like this where they just finished a marathon OT contest and now face a desperate Nets team that will be risking life and limb after starting the season 1-3, there's no question that this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side. Additionally note that Houston is a terrible 5-12 ATS in its last 17 after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games, while the Nets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games. This one has upset written all over it.

10* play on the Brooklyn Nets.

The set-up: I base my picks on many different things. This one is primarily based around scheduling. Montreal comes in off a highly satisfying 4-1 victory in Arizona just last night and I think it's going to suffer a predictable letdown here. Las Vegas most recently hammered the Ducks 5-2 and I expect a similar lop-sided blowout here as well. Also note the visitors will turn to back-up goalkeeper Keith Kincaid in this one and he's 0-1-1 with a 4.53 GAA this year. 

The pick: The home side counters with Mark Andre Fleurty, who is 8-3-0 on the year with a 2.36 GAA. Note as well that LV is 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite of -200 or higher, while Montreal is a poor 0-5 in its last five when playing on back-to-back. Lay the 1.5 goals for the plus money return and expect a decisive home victory.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Las Vegas Golden Knights. 

ts. 

The set-up: What do you base your picks on? I base my selections on many different things. This particular play is based upon the fact the Pelicans are so far winless this year and they're going to be playing their hearts out to get off the schneid. They're still without Zion Williamson and yes admittedly, the Nuggets are a much better and deeper team. But I believe that the visitors come in flat here after their outright 109-106 loss at home to the Mavericks. 

The pick: The Pelicans have faced stiff competition to open the year, but note that they're 13-6 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Nuggets are just 11-17 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a favorite. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can.

10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line in this one, but regardless, I like San Francisco to come in focussed on the task at hand and to once again run up the score quickly in this one as it then gets ready to play Seattle the following week. Clearly this is a big game for Arizona, as it sits at 3-4 and another loss will essentially take it out of the running for a playoff spot with both Seattle and San Francisco in its division. But San Francisco's depth on the defensive side of the ball and it's strong run game is going to prove to be too much for Cards' rookie QB Kyler Murray today. 

The pick: Arizona enters off a tough road loss to the Saints and I don't think the home side has gotten over that setback. It's interesting to note as well that San Fran is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests, while Arizona is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three following a two game road trip. No upsets this week, lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Francisco 49ers.

The set-up: Georgia Southern won't be going down without a fight vs. No. 20 Appalachian State. The Eagles enter off a 41-7 win over New Mexico State, while the 7-0 Mountaineers defeated South Alabama 30-3 last weekend. Georgia Southern's triple option is going to be something a bit different for App State today though. The Mountaineers average 140 rushing yards per game and the Eagles average 259 rushing yards per game.

The pick: Georiga SOuthern's defense is under-rated as well in my opinion, allowing only 209 passing yards per game, so QB Zac Thomas is going to have his hands full. Note that Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 37 points or more in its last game, while App State is already 0-2 ATS this year after a win by 21 points or more. No outright, but closer than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern.

The set-up: West Virginia is 3-4 and running out of time to become eligible. An outright win over 7-0 Baylor isn't likely going to happen, but I do definitely feel that the conditions are correct for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. The Mountaineers have lost three straight, but they come in off a much needed bye week and I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will help them in keeping this one relatively close until the final moments. 

The pick: The Mountaineers can score, but their defense has been terrible. The Bears are one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but with another "cream puff" with TCU up next, I think this does in fact set up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side as well. Finally note that WVU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while Baylor is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home and a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. No outright, but closer than expected.

9* PLAY-BOOK on West Virginia. 

The set-up: Vancouver has been sharp on both ends of the ice. The Kings have long been viewed as being one of the top defensive clubs in the league, but that definitely is not the case this year as LA comes to the Pacific Northwest as the worst on that end of the ice in the entire NHL. Vancouver has won three of its last four and two were blowout victories. 

The pick: LA won't be rolling over after losing three in a row and getting outscored 15-4 in the process, most recently falling 5-1 to the Hawks. Back on October 9th the Canucks hammered the Kings 8-2 and they're averaging over five goals over their last five games. With the desperate home side pushing the pace as well, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Canucks/Kings.

The set-up: A couple of 3-1 teams collide in this one. So far all three of Utah's games have fallen below the posted number and in three previous pre-season games as well. The Clippers though are the highest scoring team in the league and I think the home side will finally get out and push the pace here. LA is averaging 125 PPG and won't be taking anything for granted here after falling 130-122 at Phoenix, surrendering 75 second half points to the Suns. LA rebounded with a win at home and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last eight off a home no cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, while Utah has seen the total soar over in 48 of its last 78 after playing a road game. I think the Clippers control the tempo.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the over Clippers/Jazz.

The set-up: The Grizzlies ended a two-game losing streak with a big OT win at home over the Nets and I look for this young visiting side to carry that momentum over here. The Lakers lost to the Clippers on opening night, but they've since won back-to-back games over Utah and Charlotte. With upcoming road games vs. an improved Dallas team up next, followed by San Antonio and Chicago, would anyone fault LA for looking past its lowly opponent today? Memphis' young core of Jae Crowder, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to keep this one competitive once again in my opinion. 

The pick: Yes the Lakers have Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, but they're still without Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Memphis has struggled defensively in the early going, but LA has so far only averaged 105.7 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Additionally note that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 120 points or more, while LA is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I think LA does indeed get caught looking past the hungry Grizzlies today, so grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The set-up: Do or die?! Now or never?! Washington has its back against the wall and I'm not going to give up on it quite yet. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Strasburg has earned a win in four of his last five playoff games, allowing only six runs total in that span.

Verlander has been downright terrible in the postseason, losing three of his last four decisions, most recently getting shelled for four runs off seven hits over six innings vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nats are 6-0 in their last six playoff road games, while the Astros are only 1-4 in their last five interleague home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Verlander's been terrible, while Strasburg has been superb. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: The Pens ended a three-game losing slide with a 3-0 win in Dallas and I think they carry that momentum over here and come in focussed on the task at hand. The Flyers on the other hand look primed for a letdown here after they had their three-game win skein snapped by the Isles in their latest outing. Philly goaltender Carter Hart is 2-3-1 with a 3.32 GAA after allowing five goals on 14 shots in that one. 

The pick: Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray posted a shutout vs. the Stars in his last outing and he's 6-3-0 with a 2.33 GAA so far. Additionally note that Pittsubrgh is 4-1 in its last five following a victory, while Philadelphia is a terrible 1-8 in its last nine on the road. The Pens have lost three of the last four in this series, but I expect that trend to tonight. Lay the reasonable mid sized price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: Both teams are 2-1 and looking to build. So far the Jazz have seen the total "under" the number in all three of their games, but I expect that trend to end here as they look to get out and match the pace of the home side. The Suns have been incredbily competitive to this point, as they're a perfect 3-0 ATS (I had Phoenix in its outright win over the Clippers on Saturday!) The Suns aren't settling for anything, instead they're pushing the pace and attacking teams aggressively. 

The pick: Utah averages 100 PPG, and it allows 90. Phoenix averages 120 PPG and it concedes 108. If this were in Utah, I'd likely also being playing the "over." These are two young teams and I expect a wide open affair. Finally note that Utah has in fact seen the total go over the number in 16 of its last 26 as a road favorite of six points or less, while the Suns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five vs. good defensive teams which allow 98 points or less per contest. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Jazz/Suns.

The set-up: The last few Monday/Thursday games have been terrible matchups and this one follows suit. With nothing to play for though, I think the Fish simply go through the motions tonight and I look for the Steelers to "control" this one while on offense, instead of trying to run up the score and "run" this downtrodden visiting side off the field. Miami is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for this one. The Steelers beat the Chargers two weeks ago and then they had their bye week. Mason Rudolph is back after suffering a concussion scare for Pittsburgh, but he'll be asked to do nothing more than to manage this game vs. the winless Dolphins, who are now in the hunt for a few top playoff picks. 

The pick: Note as well that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a road loss, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after covering the spread in two or more straight games. I'm banking on a low-scoring affair on Monday night.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Fish/Steelers.

The set-up: Two teams on the rise collide in this game on Monday night. The Coyotes are 6-3-1 and the Sabres are 9-2-1. Arizona beat the Devils 5-3 on Friday, while the Sabres enter off a 2-0 win over the Wings. Darcy Kuemper gets the call in net for the visitors and he's 4-3-0 with a 1.87 GAA. Bufflao net-minder Carter Hutton is 6-1-0 with a 2.27 GAA thus far. 

The pick: Note that Buffalo has shutout its opponent in two of its last five games. Additionally note that the Coyotes have seen the total go under the number in 17 of their last 28 after playing three straight on the road. I look for these surging goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Coyotes/Sabres.

The set-up: The Packers come in off a big 41-24 win over the Raiders at home, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is a big question mark this weekend and if he does play, one has to wonder how effective the dynamic pivot really will be? Matt Moore is a "clock manager," so expect to see a heavy does of LeSean McCoy and the running game from the home side will on the offensive end. 

The pick: The Packers' strength this year has been on the defensive side of the ball though and Moore is clearly going to be under pressure here as well. Additionally note that GB has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while KC has seen the total go under in seven of its last eight after having lost two of its last three games outright. This one has defensive battle written all over it, play the under.

10* play on the UNDER Packers/Chiefs.

The set-up: Damian Lillard has scored at least 30 points in each of his first two games for the Blazers. Hassan Whiteside and CJ MCCollum round out a powerful and veteran line-up. Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Doncic have been great for the Mavericks, but I think the lack of depth off the bench will ultimately prove to be too much for the Mavs today. 

The pick: Additionally note that Portland is 24-12 ATS in its last 36 after scoring 120 points or more in its previous outing, while Dallas is a poor 14-16 ATS in its last 30 as a home favorite of six points or less. I like Whiteside to slow down Porzingis tonight and I look for the deeper bench of Portland to do the rest. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up: LA has now lost back-to-back games to the Blues and then 5-1 in Minnesota just last night. The Hawks are coming off a 4-1 home loss to the Flyers despite outshooting them 24-23. 

The pick: The Kings are the worst defensive team in the league and they're coming off a loss just last night. The Hawks have been poor offensively, but note that they're 6-2 in their last eight home games following a home loss by three or more goals. The situation and the trends both point to the home side as the correct call (and the price is excellent too in my opinion.) 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Chicago Blackhawks.

The set-up: This is Oakland's fifth straight game on the road, a trip which has included a trip to London. I admit that the Raiders have been better than I thought they'd be this year, but I think they're going to suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this focused home side, which comes in off a 30-23 loss to the Colts. The Raiders got crushed 41-24 at Green Bay last weekend and now they face a similar type offense in DeShaun Watson and the Texans. 

The pick: Oakland allowed five TD's to Aaron Rodgers last weekend and they average 21 PPG, while conceding 27.5. The Texans on the other hand average 26 PPG, while allowing 23. Oakland is also a poor 5-13 ATS in its last 18 on the road (including 1-2 ATS this year), while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game road trip. I like Watson to domiante this porous Raiders' secondary. Lay the points.

10* play on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: Both teams have had to deal with adveristy this year. The Bucs though have the better QB in place in this one and I think Jameis Winston will in fact be the difference maker in this one. The Titans managed a win over the Chargers last week, but I think they take a predictable step back here. Winston struggled in his last start vs. the Panthers, but he'll look to Chris Godwin to try and turn things around this week; Godwin has 662 yards and six TD's through the first six games this year. 

The pick: The Titans' QB situation is even worse though, as Marcus Mariota has been benched for Ryan Tannehill, who has looked decent in one game and poor in the other. Tampa Bay though is a pefect 3-0 ATS in its last three after two straight division contests, while Tennessee is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Look for Winston to settle down here and find a way to get the job done here. 

8* play on the Bucs.

The set-up: I got down early on this one before it was confirmed that Matt Ryan wasn't going to play. Regardless, after losing five straight I think the Falcons and Matt Schaub find a way to get the job done here. Seattle allows 357 yards per game and Falcons' WR Julio Jones had 560 receiving yards and four TD's. 

The pick: Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett have been a deadly duo so far this year for the Hawks, but after Seattle's win at home over the Ravens last week and with a game at home vs. the Bucs before a road contest at division leading San Fran and its bye, I think this contest definitely sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. Additionally note that Seattle is stil a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while ATL is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four after five or more consecutive losses. I think Schaub is in fact a "good" thing for this Falcons team, as I look for the veteran backup to play his heart out here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Falcons.

The set-up: The Jags won this contest 31-12 last year and I expect a similar sort of beatdown here as well. New York is just 1-5 and it enters off a 33-0 loss to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Jags on the other hand enter off a 27-17 win over the Bengals and I have no reason not to think that they can't keep that momentum rolling here vs. this similar pathetic competition. Last week New York posted six turnovers, including two fumbles and it was flagged eight times for 60 yards. The Jags have 21 sacks and four INT's already this year and I believe they're going do some serious damage to Sam Darnold and this Jets' offensive line. 

The pick: Leonard Fournette had 131 yards rushing in last week's victory for the Jags and I think he'll be a difference maker at home this week as well. Overall the Jets have just seven sacks and five INT's on the year, so Jags' QB Gardner Minshew and Fournette will plenty of opportunities to make some dynamic plays this weekend. Additionally it's interesting to note that the Jags are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after posting 150 yards rushing in their previous game, while New York is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. I expect a lop-sided rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The set-up: This non-confernece matchup means more to the 3-4 Eagles than it does to the 5-1 Bills in my opinion. I do indeed believe the the "hungrier" side will find a way to get the job done in this one. Buffalo has been carried so far by its defense, which is ranked third in the league by allowing only 15.2 PPG. That said, Josh Allen and the home side only average 20.2 PPG on the offensive side. The Eagles can't look past this game after falling 37-10 to the Cowboys last time out. 

The pick: While the Eagles looked poor offensively last week, I think that Carson Wentz and Philly get back on track here. The Bills offense has been terrible as well and there's opportunity for the visitors to steal this one outright. Further note that Philadelphia is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog, while Buffalo is only 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite. Desperation breeds motivation. Grab the points.

8* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: Denver opened the season with four straight close losses, but then it posted back-to-back victories, before then regressing again with a 30-6 loss to KC last week. Denver's defense has been decent and I think it'll come up big here on the road. 

The pick: The Colts have played to many close games as well, but after a 30-23 win over the Texans last week, I think Indy has a predictable letdown this week. The Broncos are also 4-1 ATS in their last five off a divisional contest, while the Colts are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a home win. I think the "hungrier" team finds a way to get the job done here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: Phoenix held a lead in Denver for most of the night last night, but it wasn't to be in its eventual 108-107 OT loss. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is never easy, but let's get real. We're still in the first week of the season and these are professional athletes. I'll argue that playing again so quickly is actually a benefit for the clearly "gelling" Suns, who blew out the Kings in their opener. The Clippers are off to a 2-0 start and they definitely appear to be the team to beat in the NBA this season. 

The pick: The Clippers took out the Lakers and then the Warriors in Golden State, but with games against the Suns tonight and then the Hornets at home on Monday, would anyone fault LA for taking the foot off the gas here tonight? I like the home side to shake off last night's loss and to defend its own floor. That said, grab the generous points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: Cal is 4-3 and desperate for a couple more victories. Utah is 6-1 and already bowl eligible. Utah though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after getting its sixth win of the year in a 21-3 win over Arizona State. 

The pick: Cal has lost three in a row, but it's looked better of late. The Bears only concede 18 PPG, so they have the defense to hang with the home side today. Additionally note that Cal is 10-4 ATS in its last four and 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games, while the Utes are 0-2 ATS in their last two after allowing six points or less in their last outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

10* play on California 

The set-up: Both teams are off to poor starts and each comes in off a loss. The Wild lost 4-0 to Nashville and LA fell 5-2 to St. Louis. Minnesota is only averaging 2.10 GPG, but the Kings are allowing 3.90 GPG. The Kings' goaltending has been terrible, so the advantage goes to Minnesota's Alex Stalock, who has a 2.22 GAA. 

The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is a sharp 6-1 in its last seven at home in this series, while the Kings are a poor 1-5 in their last six as underdogs in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, I think this is a great price on the home side.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Minnesota Wild.

The set-up: Obviously I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I do believe that the stage is set for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Dennis Grosel ha had to fill the shoes of starter Anthony Brown, but thankfully the offense revolves mostly around RB AJ Dillon. BC is coming off a big win and it's also fresh out of its bye week. Overall the Eagles averages 34.6 PPG and they allow 28.1. 

The pick: The Tigers are 7-0 and ranked No. 4 in the country. On the year they're averaging 40 points and conceding only 12. Clemson leans heavily on RB Travis Etienne, who averages almost 8 yards per carry. It's interesting to note though that Clemson is just 2-5 ARTS in its last seven at home in this series, while BC is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Additionally note that the Eagles have failed to cover in just eight of their last 29 games overall. No outright, but expect a solid cover from a good team that won't be going down today without a fight.

8* play on Boston College. 

The set-up: Memphis is 6-1 and bowl eligible, while Tulsa needs to string some wins together at 2-5. The Tigers lost their first game of the year, but have since reeled of six straight to become eligible, including a 47-17 victory over Tulane last time out. But with a game against Conference leader SMU up next weekend, I have a hard time seeing Memphis not getting caught "looking ahead" to that much more high-profile contest. Memphis' QB Brady White threw for five TD's in his last game, but I think he and the rest of his team do indeed come in complacent here after their sixth win of the year. 

The pick: Tulsa is averaging only 21.9 PPG, and it's allowing 31. It's faced three straight difficult opponents though in SMU, Navy and Cincinnati, as QB Zack Smith had a 10:6 TD:INT thus far. Memphis though is a poor 6-10 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 42 points or more in its last game, while Tulsa is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival. I think Tulsa plays with heart and takes the Tigers down to the wire. Grab the points.

8* play on Tulsa.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Troy is 3-3 and desperate to string some wins together. Georiga State is 5-3 and can become eligible with one last victory. What better time than right now?! Troy enters off a 37-13 win over South Alabama, while Georgia State got the better of Army 28-21. Troy is led by QB Kaleb Barker and the Trojans are putting up a decent 449.2 yards of offense per game. Unfortunately though Troy has been an absolute train wreck on the other side of the ball, ranked 120th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the pass, allowing 287.7 YPG. 

The pick: Georgia State is led by senior QB Dan Ellington, who had three TD passes vs. a tough Army defense last weekend. So far Ellington has a strong 16:3 TD:INT this year and I think he'll be the difference maker in this one. Also note that the Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after posting 28 points or more in their previous game, while Troy is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games after scoring 35 points or more while also covering in its previous outing. This one has home side rout written all over it.

8* play on Georgia State. 

The set-up: Both teams have dropped four of their last five games. Illinois though is ocming off an epic 24-23 win at home over Wisconsin (which entered that game at 6-0 and as a 29 point favorite.) The Illini looked a lot better, especially on the defensive side of the ball and I think the team carries that momentum over here. 

The pick: Purdue will be tested by the Illini both on the ground and in the air. The Boilermakers allow 275 yards per game through the air. Is Boilermakers' QB Jack Plummer that much better than Illinois QB Brandon Peters? If we go by last week's results, the answer is no in my opinion. This one has the feel of an outright battle until the final whistle and because of that, I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Illinois 

The set-up: Texas A&M is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in conference action, while Mississippi State is 3-4 overall and 1-3 in league action. Mississippi State comes in hungry here after back-to-back losses, most recently falling 36-13 to LSU. QB Garrett Schrader had 238 yards, one TD and one INT. He also had 66 rushing yards:

"We played our asses off today, and we fought," MSU head coach Joe Moorhead told Hail State. "Was it clean, was it precise, was it what we needed to be against this team? Absolutely not. But I know this – when I'm in that locker room and I look at that team and I saw how we fought; we're going to build off of this one. We're going to take the good things and correct the bad things, and be a football team that continues to fight for the rest of the year."

The Bulldogs average 25.4 PPG and they allow 26.4. 

The pick: Last week the Aggies beat Mississippi 24-17, but QB Kellen Mond did not look overly impressive, going 16 of 28 for 172 yards, one TD and two INT's. So far Texas A&M averages 31 PPG and it allows 22, however note that it's just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five following a double-digit home loss. I think this is going to be a battle until the final whistle and as such, I'm grabbing the generous amount of points.

8* play on Mississippi State. 

The set-up: Bowling Green is 2-5 overall after giving up 38 points to CMU last weekend. WMU is 2-2 in league play, but its offense is ranked 27th in the nation, averaging 34.4 PPG. Also note that the Broncos play with revenge here after they fell 42-37 to the Green Falcons last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is 4-0 at home and Bowling Green is 0-3 on the road. The Falcons just gave up 560 yards of offense to Central Michigan and QB's Darius Wade and Grant Loy continue to struggle. WMU senior QB Jon Wassink on the other hand already has 2,098 passing yards on the season (15 TD, 7 INT.) The Broncos also have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and 4-0 ATS following a SU loss, while BG is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss. I don't expect the WMU defense to be the main story line tomorrow, but it won't have to with his Broncos' offense having its way with this porous Falcons' secondary. Lay the points with confidence.

8* play on Western Michigan

The set-up: Donovan Mitchell led the way in Utah's season opening win over the Thunder. LeBron James and the Lakers though will be out to push the pace here as they try to bounce back from a season opening loss to the Clippers. Now that the Clippers destroyed the Warriors in their own building on Thursday night, the Lakers setback to the Clip Show doesn't look so bad really. Regardless, AD and The King will absolutely be out to dictate the pace of this one and with the visiting side needint to keep pace, I do indeed expec this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pick: And the numbers/trends/stats back us up on this one, as Utah has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 off a victory vs. a division rival, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 15 off a loss vs. a division rival. All signs do indeed point to the over as the savvy call here.

10* play on the OVER Utah/Lakers.

The set-up: I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point. Washington comes in off a 4-3 loss in Edmonton just last night and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up much energy here vs. the defensive minded home side. Vancouver just finished off a 3-1 road trip as it continues to get excellent play on both ends of the ice, especially on the defensive side (having allowed just 19 goals so far this season, which is tied for No. 1 in the league!)

The pick: Washington starts backup Samsonov, who is 3-1 with a 1.84 GAA, while the Canucks' Jacob Markstrom is 4-2 with a 2.16 GAA. I expect Washington to come in with "heavy legs" and I look for Vancouver's strong defensive play to continue here. Look for these two goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Vancouver Canucks UNDER.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. USC is just 4-3 and still in search of eligibility. Time is running out for 3-4 Colorado as well though. The Buffs enter off a 41-10 loss to Washington State, their third straight conference set back. USC is off a 41-14 victory over Arizona at home. USC is in a tie now with Utah for the lead, but last week's victory came at a cost, as the Trojans come to Colorado suffering a number of injuries to key players: they lost starting RB Vavae Malepeai for the season. Junior RB Stephen Carr also hurt his hamstring against the Wildcats and isn't expected to play. Backup RB Markese Stepp is also out with an ankle injury. Defensive linemen Christian Rector and Drake Jackson are also slated as questionable, as are CB's  Olijah Griffin and Greg Johnson.

The pick: Colorado needs QB Steven Montez to show and produce tonight vs. this wounded Trojans' defense. Montez's ground game though has been decent of late, with Alex Fontenot running for over 70 yards in each of the last four games. I'll point out as well that USC is still only 9-15 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite, while Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 28 points or more to conference rivals. The situation favors the home side here, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado.

The set-up: The Bulls lost 126-125 in Charoltte on opening night, but I think this fast-paced visiting side will have more than enough in the tank to take out the lowly home side here. Lauri Markkanen was a bright spot in a losing cause for Chicago with 35 points and 17 boards and its defense catches a break here facing Memphis, which fell 120-101 in Miami in its opener. 

The pick: Ja Morant was the No. 2 pick in the draft last year for Memphis and he finished with 14 points and four assists. But the Grizz are still a poor 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous outing. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion.

10* play on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: Minnesota beat the Nets on Opening night in an OT decision, but I think the team has a predictable letdown here. Charlotte enters off a hard-fought upset win at home over the Bulls and with nothing to lose, I think the home side can keep this one competitive until the final moments again. Last year the Wolves averaged 112.5 PPG and allowed 111.1. 

The pick: Dwayne Bacon had 22 points for the Hornets in their 126-125 win over the Bulls. last season Charlotte averaged 110.4 PPG and it conceded 114.0. Note though that the Hornets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, while the Wolves are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight following an ATS victory. While this one has "upset" written all over it, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Charlotte.

The set-up: The Clippers came out and dominated the Lakers 112-102 on Opening night and now they have another difficult task facing a new look Warriors team which finished runner up to the Raptors last season. Kawhi Leonard looked great for the Clippers, going for 30 points and six boards, while Lou Williams added 21 points off the bench. The Clippers are still incredibly deep and talented without Paul George in the line-up and there's no reason not to think this unit won't be able to keep pace with the up-tempo home side.  

The pick: While Klay Thompson is out for the season with injury, the Warriors still have plenty of all star talent, including Steph Curry, who has now become the No. 1 go to guy on this team with Kevin Durant gone. D'Angelo Russell had a break out campaign for the Nets last year and he could truly be an X-Factor for this team. Whatever the case, I think the home side is going to be pushing the pace from start to finish. Also note that LA has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten off a home win vs. a division rival, while GS has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 23 of its last 33 vs. division opponents. I'm expecting a shootout.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Clippers/Warriors.

The set-up: SMU is already bowl eligible at 7-0, but Houston has some work to do at 3-4. An upset win at home over the surging Mustangs would certainly help get the ship directed in the correct direction. SMU comes in off a 45-21 home win over Temple. Shane Buechele has been superb so far for SMU, but I think he's going to have his hands full here vs. this motivated and hungry home side, which enters off a 24-17 win over UConn. Cougars' QB Logan Holgorsen and 123 yards and a TD. SMU allows 251 yards passing per game, so Holgorsen will have his opportunities. 

The pick: Note that SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while Houston is is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off a road win against a conference rival. I think the home side fights tooth and nail in this one and keeps it close as the game comes down the stretch. I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston.

The set-up: The Sabres are 8-2 and the Rangers are 2-5. Most recently Buffalo came from behind to knock off the Sharks by a score of 4-3. Clearly the Rangers won't be lacking for motivation here after their slow start and their 3-2 defeat to the Coyotes in their previous outing. BUffalo has scored 17 goals over its last five games and I think that the home side will definitely have its hands full with this new look Sabres team. Carter Hutton has been amazing for Buffalo early, but the Rangers enter having lost six straight and they're going to be risking life and limb here to get off the schneid. 

The pick: Easier said than done for the Rangers though with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist in net, who is just 1-3 with a 3.57 GAA. With Buffalo averaging nearly four goals per game and with the Rangers desperate for a win, I think the stage is indeed set for an offensive affair.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Sabres/Rangers.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 5-3, but I think the Coyotes take a step back on Long Island, after getting the better of the Rangers in The Big Apple. Arizona goalie Darcy Kuemper is 4-2-0 with a 1.68 GAA this year, but note that he's a sub-par 1-3 with 3.13 GAA lifetime vs. the Isles. So far Arizona is averaging 3.00 GPG and conceding only 1.88. 

The pick: New York netminder Thomas Greiss is 3-1 with a 2.20 GAA this season and he's 3-3-1 with a 2.11 GAA lifetime vs. the 'Yotes. So far the Isles are averaging and allowing 2.50 GPG this year. But winning on the road is difficult in the NHL and I think Arizona is definitely primed for a letdown here vs. this surging home side. The Isles have looked better offensively after a very poor start, so their early numbers on that end of the ice are skewed. The home side has won eight of the last nine in this series, so expect that strong trend to continue here.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Islanders.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 1. With their backs against the wall, I believe that Justin Verlander and the home side come out and deliver an epic response on Game 2. Honestly, it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these staters to win this game, as Stephen Strasburg has been a "rock" for the Nats all season and during the playoffs. This play is based upon the "situation" and some strong ATS trends. The only mission of a visiting team in the start of a playoff series is to earn a "split" over the first two games. Sure Washington would LOVE to win both games, but with that crucial mission indeed accomplished, I think the visitors get caught taking the mental foot off the gas. For Houston though, this is essentially "do or die." 

The pick: Note that Washington is just 3-7 in its last ten road games following a victory by one run or more, while Houston is 7-4 in its last 11 home games after allowing five or more runs in its previous contest. I expect Houston to win, and win big!

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Astros on the RUN-LINE.

The set-up: The Grizzlies have a lot of new faces, which they hope will give a boost to a team which finished 33-49 last year. Overall Memphis averaged 103.5 PPG and it allowed 105.7. The Heat were a sub-par 39-43 a year ago, averaging 105.7 PPG and allowing 106. 

The pick: I handicap the first week of all sports differently than I do the rest of the regular season and I believe this one sets up great situationally, while also backed by strong ATS O/U trends. Memphis and Miami both have plenty of new faces and each team has something to prove after a poor performance last year. With pushing the pace, I expect this total to soar over sooner than later. Also note that Memphis has seen the total go OVER in 35 of its last 55 non-conference games, while Miami has seen the total soar OVER in 14 of its last 19 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, expect a higher-scoring game.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over Grizzlies/Heat.

The set-up: The Pistons were 41-41 last year and they were the eighth seed in the East, while Indiana was 48-34 and ended up as the fourth seed last year. The Pistons enter the year on full health (other than Griffin) and welcome back all of their core players from last year. Detroit also signed Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris amonth others. 

The pick: The Pacers are awaiting for their super star Victor Oladipo to return from injury and I think they'll have a hard time adjusting on opening night. Indiana signed Malcom Brogdon to run the point, but I think he'll have his hands full as well tonight with Rose and company. I think Detroit has everything in place to improve this year and even with Oladipo in the line-up, I believe that the Pacers have the potential to take a big step back. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons.

The set-up: Until I get a firm look at each team over the first week, I tend to base my picks on different criteria to open a season. I believe this is a great situational play on the Lakers. Kawhi Leonard is an amazing player, which was the final piece on a great team in Toronto. Whether or not that same magic will work for the Clippers is yet to be seen and he'll be without his best option in Paul George, who comes into the season on the injured list. 

The pick: Anthony Davis definitely has something to prove to everyone. So too does LeBron James. James in particular will be out to push the pace from start to finish as he tries to make everyone forget about his China "gaff" that he committed recently. What better way to start that process than to destroy the Clippers in their "shared" building? From a situational stand point, this is as good as it gets in my opinion. Lay the points.

10* BEST OF BEST on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: Two unbelievable pitchers face a couple of hard-hitting line-ups. Both Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole have incredible seasonal numbers, in the playoffs and vs. their respective opponents. It wouldn't be difficult to write a play on the "under" based entirely around their stats/numbers. But I think these two starters can still "shine" in this contest, and this total can still eclipse this very low-number. 

The pick: Based primarily around the fact that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten when the total in the contest is set at 7 or lower, while Houston has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 17 after allowing four runs or less in four straight games. With time to re-focus, I believe it'll be these hard-hitting line-ups which become the main story-lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Nationals/Astros.

The set-up: Big changes for both teams to enter the season. The Pelicans were getting great play from rookie phenom Zion Williamson, but he's now injured and won't be playing for the first month or so. Of course Toronto is the defending champion and while many of the same pieces remain, many have left as well, including leader Kawhi Leonard. Considering the early adversity that each will have to go through, I think this number is much too hight. Offensive chemistry doesn't happen instantly and in my opinion, I think each side comes out tenative to open the 2019/20 campaign. 

The pick: New Orleans has also seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 non-conference games, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven when the total is greater than or equal to 230 points. This number is a tad high, play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Pels/Raps.

The set-up: Vancouver is 5-3 and Detroit is 3-5. Vancouver has already beaten the Wings 5-1 at home, but now Detroit will look to exact some revenge in its own building vs. a now road weary and contented Canucks team. Vancouver is getting great defensive play and goaltending, both from Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko, but after beating the Rangers in New York and with this being the final contest on a long-trip, I believe this does indeed set up as a "letdown/look-ahead" spot for the over-achieving visitors. 

The pick: Detroit comes in having lost four straight, making this an early "do or die" game for the home side. The Wings' netminders have hit or miss, but note that the Canucks are just 28-42 (-12.5 units) in their last 70 vs. clubs with losing records, while Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight after playing three straight on the road. In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Red Wings.

The set-up: This is the second game of a home and home set between these clubs, after San Jose fell 4-3 at home to the Sabres on Saturday. Martin Jones will be looking to bounce back in net for San Jose, he's 4-2-2 with a 2.36 GAA lifetime vs. the Sabres. Overall the Sharks are scoring 2.63 GPG and allowing 3.50. 

The pick: The Sabres are averaging 3.67 GPG and allowing only 2.33. Goaltender Carter Hutton is 5-0-0 with a 1.40 GAA this year for Buffalo. Note that the Sharks have already seen the total go under the number in three of four this year after allowing four or more goals, while Buffalo has seen the total go under in 21 of its last 36 when playing with two days of rest. This number is high considering the circumstances and numbers/trends listed above.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Sharks/Sabres.

The set-up: To say these are two hungry and desperate teams would be an understatement. The Sens are 1-5-0-1 and the Stars are 2-7-0-1. Dallas finally scored the 4-1 at Philadelphia and with two whole nights off after this before a game vs. the Ducks at ome, there's no reason not to think that the home side can't build off that performance with another big effort here vs. the hapless Sens. 

The pick: Ottawa has been terrible, most recently getting smashed 5-2 by the Coyotes. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for the Senators, but they catch a break here facing the porous Stars' defense. While both teams have struggled to find the back of the net this year, each has been equally as horrible on the defensive end of the ice. Look for these two desperate teams to open up the pace of the play and expect this total to soar over sooner, rather than later!

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Sens/Stars.

The set-up: New England is 6-0 and New York is 1-4. The Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 home win over the Giants, while the Jets enter off their first victory of the year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. I expect a more conservative style of play from the Pats in this contest though as they look to avoid the upset and to "look past" these suddenly confident Jets. New York only allows 358 total yards of offense, with 262.2 through the air and a paltry 95.8 on the ground. 

The pick: The strengh of the Jets is indeed on the defensive side of the ball and while the Patriots have an unreal offense, it is in fact their defense which is also "stealing the show" in New England this year. So far the Pats allow only 234.7 YPG this season, which includes an average of 161 through the air and only 73.7 on the ground. Note that New England has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 20 on the road and in 14 of its last 19 as a road favorite, while the Jets have seen the total dip under the number in nine of 13 as a home underdog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Patriots/Jets.

The set-up: I think the 7-1 Avs are going to have a letdown here. St. Louis on the other hand has lost four straight and it'll be risking life and limb here to secure a victory today. The Avs come off a 6-2 beatdown of the Lightning and I think they're going to suffer a classic letdown here. Philipp Grubauer has been on fie for the Avs, but note that he's 0-1-2 with a 3.24 GAA vs. the Blues lifetime. 

The pick: The Blues are clearly suffering a Stanley Cup hangover, as teams are relentless on the defending champs. Most recently St Louis fell 5-2 to the Habs. Note though that the Avs are still just 36-40 (-3.4 units) in their last 76 after scoring four or more goals in their previous contest, while the Blues are 30-20 in their last 50 after a loss by two goals or more in their previous outing. I like the depserate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Blues.

The set-up: As primiarily a situational handicapper, I think this one sets up great for the home side. Montreal beat the Wild 4-0 in its final home game, before then getting the better of the defending champs 5-2 in St. Louis just last night. The Wild are rested, revenge-minded and hungry after a 1-6 start. I think this absolutely sets up as a letdown spot for the Habs, while I believe this has essentially become a "must win" contest for the Wild. 

The pick: At some point Montreal is going to have a letdown and that "some point" is tonight! In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of great line value on a situational selection. 

9* COACH'S CORNER on the Minnesota Wild.

The set-up: Baltimore is ranked 17th on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens though have a big question mark in the WR position this week with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown listed as questionable. The Seahawks are getting unreal play from QB Russell Wilson, who has 16 TD's so far and no INT's. The Hawks defense isn't what it used to be, but so far it's been better than average by posting 12 takeaways YTD. 

The pick: Note that Baltimore has interestingly seen the total dip under the number in 11 of its last 15 after having won two out of its last three games SU, while Seattle has seen the total go below the posted number in 11 of its last 17 as a favorite. This number is high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Ravens/Hawks.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Each of these teams had huge expectations coming in, but each has struggled mightily to open the 2019/20 campaign. The Chargers are off a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers, while the Titans fell 16-0 in Denver. While Philip Rivers had 320 yards and two TD's last week for the Bolts, he also had two INT's. And now he faces the leagues second best pass defenses which concedes just 217 passing yards per game. Also note that Rivers has been sacked 12 times already this year. 

The pick: Marcus Mariota is out and Ryan Tannehill is in for the Titans this week. Tannehill makes his first start for his new team and I expect the pivot to make the most of this opportunity. LA though is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a road loss. I think the Titans superior defense is the difference here and I like Tannehill to make the most of this opportunity. Lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tennessee Titans.

The set-up: The Canucks fell 2-0 in New Jersey and I think they'll now struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back vs. a Rangers team which enters off a 5-2 loss to the Devils on Thursday. Alexsandar Georgievj has the advantage in net over Canucks' netminder Jacob Markstrom (2-2-0, 2.23 GAA). Georgievj (1-1-0, 2.56) most recently allowed four goals vs. the Devils, but he's hungry to be the No. 1 goaltender in the Big Apple. 

The pick: The Rangers have lost three in a row and they're rested. Vancouver had been on a big run, but it finally had a letdown last night and now it has to try and muster up the energy for an early morning contest less than 24 hours later. This one sets up beautifully for the home side and the price is right too. 

10* BODY-CHECK on the New York Rangers

The set-up: After two straight wins, I think that Kyler Murray and the Cardinals take a step back here in this difficult road venue. The Cardinals most recently scored the upset 34-33 win over the Falcons. The Giants are now led by Daniel Jones and they most recently were destroyed by the Patriots on Thursday night. The Cards' offense has been decent of late, but the defense has taken a step back. 

The pick: The Giants welcome back starting RB Saquon Barkley to the line-up, which is obviously a huge boost to New York's offense. Also note that Arizona is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a win by six points or less, while New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight loss by ten points or more; I'm laying the short points!

9* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Oakland comes in off its bye week after beating the Bears in London. This is the Raiders fourth game out of five straight away from home and I think they'll struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. In the win over Chicago, QB Derek Carr had zero TD's and zero INt's. Also note that the Raiders come to town with question marks surrounding their top two receivers, as Dwayne Harris and Tyrell Williams are both listed as questionable.

The pick: Oakland allows 24.6 PPG as well this year. Green Bay escpaed with a win over Detroit last week, but the Lions lead the league in several defensive categories. Green Bay's defense is conceding just 19.2 PPG and the Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. The Raiders on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a winning record. Lay the points.

8* SMOKE-JOB on the Packers.

The set-up: This game is going to be watched in more than 200 countries world-wide. Almost 1 billion people will be watching this contest. United though is dealing with injury issues and the last time these team's played Liverpool won decisively 3-1 at Anfield last December. Ole Gunnar Solskjær is expected to play for a draw here, but I don't see Liverpool settling. 

The pick: Extra motivation here for Liverpool? Head coach Jurgen Klopp has never won at Old Trafford in any of his previous four visits as manager. Also note that Man U is hte only club in which Mohamed Salah has failed to score against. I look for the visitors to move to 18 straight EPL victories. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Liverpool

The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. 

The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii.

The set-up: Boise State is 6-0 and BYU is just 2-4. BYU comes in desperate though after three straight losses. The Broncos are rolling, but I think they come out flat here after their 59-37 conference destruction of Hawaii. Yes Boise State posted 518 yards of total offense in the victory, but it also conceded 435. 

The pick: Both teams have injuries to starting QB's. BYU has the home field advantage and is the "hungrier" team here. I love this pick from an overall "situational" stand point, but also note that Boise State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by 17 or more points, while BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a loss by six points or less. Grab the points.

10* play on BYU.  

The set-up: Flordia had three whole nights off and then fell to Colorado 5-4 last night. The Panthers had a 3-1 lead at one point and now I think they falter again here vs. the rested Predators. Nashville has had a night off after a 5-2 loss at Arizona, which concluded a 1-2 road trip. This is the opener of three straight at home vs. difficult teams and I believe the Predators come in focussed on the task at hand (Ducks and Wild up next, followed by a road game at Tampa Bay.) 

The pick: Florida is a poor 28-32 (-5.4 units) in its last 60 non-conference games, while Nashville is 26-15 (+5.9 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. A great situational play and a great price considering the circumstances. Lay it.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators.

The set-up: ODU is 1-5 and UAB is 5-1. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ODU has been terrible offensively, but I think this sets up great from a situational stand point for the visitors. 

The pick: UAB is on the verge of eligiblity, but with its bye week up next before a game vs. the Vols and then Southern Miss, I believe the home side does indeed get caught "looking ahead." This is as situationally based selection on the visitors.

8* play on ODU. 

The set-up: I'm grabbing the points and expecting the 3-3 Terps to take the 4-2 Hoosiers down to the line. Indiana has won three of four, while Maryland has dropped three of four. The Terrapins are stout up front, allowing just 135 yards per game on the ground. The Terps can score as well, ranked in the top 50 as far as total yards of offense per game. 

The pick: Defense has been the weak point for the Terps, but Indiana has struggled as well, having allowed at least 28 points in eight of its last nine Big Ten contests. The Hoosiers are also a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, while the Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six off a blowout loss vs. a conference rival of 21 point or more. Grab the points.

8* play on Maryland. 

The set-up: Minnesota is 6-0, while Rutgers is just 1-5. I think the Golden Gophers go up early in this one and then coast in the second half. The Knights are actually decent against the pass and the Knights only average 229.7 YPG through the air anyways. The Gophers dominate the run game, and Rutgers struggles against the rush.  

The pick: But I think that plays into our hands in here in grabbing the massive amount of points. It's back to back "cream puffs" for Minnesota, with Maryland at home up next. No need to do anything fancy here. Additionally note that the Gophers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog of 14.5 points or more. No titanic upsets, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Rutgers. 

The set-up: Oregon State is just 2-4. Cal is 4-2, but it enters have lost two straight. Note that the Beavers play with revenge here as well after they fell 49-7 in this game last year. Last week the Bears managed just 256 total yards of offense, including only 66 on the ground. Yes the Bears only allow 18.3 PPG, but they only average 20.3 (ranked No. 116 in the country.) 

The pick: Beavers' QB Jake Lutton struggled vs. Utah last week, Oregon State still comes in averaging a very respectable 32 PPG. The defense has been the weak point in conceding 34 PPG, but it catches a break here facing the Bears vanilla offense. Finally note that Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home. I think the Beavers open up the playbook and keep this one competitive throughout. 

8* play on Oregon State.  

The set-up: I expect the 4-3 CMU Chippewas to lay the hammer down here on the 2-4 Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green has won two straight in the series, but I expect that trend to firmly go in the other direction after tonight. Previous to last week's win over Toledo, note that the Falcons had lst four straight, giving up 201 points and posting only 27 of their own in the process. The Chips come in off back-to-back victories, most recently taking care of winless New Mexico State. CMU won't be with QB David Moore, but senior Quinten Dormady had 134 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Aggies last week. 

The pick: Despite last week's win the Green Falcons are still averaging only 16 PPG. CMU is conceding 28 PPG, but so clearly the Chips' defense catches a break here as well. Finally note that CMU is a sharp 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Bowling Green is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the same points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Lay the points and expect a rout.

8* play on Central Michigan. 

The set-up: This is a big game for the 2-4 Boilermakers. Iowa is 4-2, but it comes in off a humblings 17-12 home loss to Penn State. Purdue on the other hand comes in off a momentum-building 40-14 victory over Maryland, with QB Jake Plummer throwing for 420 yards and three TD's. Iowa has the fifth ranked defense in the country, but Plummer won't be shy to try and get the ball down field whenever he can. The Boilermakers' QB has seven TD's and four INT's. Overall Purdue has six receivers with over 100 yards. 

The pick: Iowa' QB Nate Stanley had 286 passing yards in last week's loss, along with one TD and one INT. The Boilermakers' defensive numbers are poor, but it catches a break this week as note that the Hawkeyes have struggled in this spot for bettors, going a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference contests. Conversely this is a spot which the Boilermakers have excelled in by going 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Purdue. 

The set-up: Did the Red Wings get caught "looking ahead" to this game after their 5-1 loss in Calgary just last night? Probably. But that still doesn't make tonight's task any easier as the now weary Wings head to Edmonton to play the second game of the back to back vs. a red hot Oilers team. The Wings are allowing 3.75 GPG on the road, while only netting an average of 2.75. Wings' netminder Jonathan Bernier has been a bright spot in the early going with a 2-1, 3.33 GAA record, but I think he'll struggle in this difficult venue. 

The pick: The Oilers average the second highest amount of goals this year (4.00) and they concede the 11th lowest (2.71.) Edmonton goalie Mike Smith is 3-1 with a 2.50 GAA thus far. Edmonton is also 4-0 in its last four vs. the Eastern Conference, while Detroit is just 26-38 in non-conference games the last two years. I'm laying the 1.5 goals.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Edmonton Oilers PUCK-LINE.

The set-up: Ohio State is 6-0 and Northwestern is just 1-4. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do feel that the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Ohio State ranks in the top in the country in almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball. Buckeyes' QB Justin Fields has 18 passing TD's and eight rushing. But with 6-0 Wisconsin at home next weekend, would anyone fault the visitors in looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? 

The pick: Northwestern enters off three straight tough losses, but it also enters rested out of its bye. The Wildcats lost 31-10 to MSU, 24-15 to Wisconsin and 13-10 to Nebraska. Whether it's Aiden Smith or Hunter Johnson under center, I'm basing today's pick more on the situation than anything else. I will however note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye-week, while OSU is only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Northwestern.

The set-up: Patrick Mahomes is the same player, but this isn't the same Chiefs team which we saw last year. The defense was always a weak point and it remains a weak point now as well. But the offense isn't "clicking" like it once was and penalties and poor special teams play have led to back-to-back losses for KC. After starting 0-4, the Broncos have now won two in a row. The revenge angle comes into play here for the home side as well, as it's lost seven straight in this series (it's interesting to note though that Broncos' new QB Joe Flacco is 2-0 vs. the Chiefs for his career.) 

The pick: KC allows over 400 yards per game on defense, which is 29th in the league overall. Also note that Mahomes is in fact nursing a sprained ankle and he's playing without the services of LT Eric Fisher. The KC run game is also non-existent, averaging only 87 YPG. Denver's defense has been a strength of late and I think the unit is going to have another big night tonight. Finally note that the Broncos are interestingly 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games, while KC is only 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: UL Lafayette's four game win streak was snapped in last week's 17-7 loss to App State. The Rajun Cajuns still average 38.2 PPG though and their rushing attack is ranked sixth with an average of 282.2 YPG. Arkansas State is averaging a whopping 40 PPG in the early going, but the Red Wolves defense has been atrocious. Arkansas State enters off a loss as well to Georgia State. 

The pick: UL Lafayette QB Levi Lewis is going to have a big day in my estimation and he comes in sporting a strong 9:2 TD:INT. The Red Wolves rank 117th in the nation against the run, so Cajuns' RB Trey Regas also looks primed for a huge night. Red Wolves' QB Layne Hatcher has four TD's and two INT's in each of his last two games, but his defense ranks second to last in D1. Finally onte that Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, while UL Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Lafayette.

The setup: The Rangers are 2-1 and the Devils are 0-6. Clearly the home side has issues, but I believe New Jersey risks life and limb to try and get off the schneid tonight. Alexandar Georgiev is expected to be between the pipes for the Rangres, while Cory Schneider will get the nod for New Jersey. New York has been off since a 4-1 home loss to Edmonton on Saturday and I think that rest is going to lead to rust here vs. this determined/desperate home side. 

The pick: Note that New York has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 5-10 (-2.8 units) when playing with three or more days rest. I don't think that the Devils are as terrible as their win/loss record would indicate. I'm banking on the more desperate team delivering the goods.

10* TOP-SHELF DESTROYER on the New Jersey Devils.

The set-up: Carolina is 6-1-0 this year after its 2-0 win in LA just last night. The Hurricanes face a difficult task though in my opinion vs. the well rested Sharks team that hasn't played since a 3-1 win over the Flames at home on Sunday. The Hurricanes also get caught looking ahead to two more tough road contests at Anaheim and Columbus up next. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top the Sharks have had a couple nights off and then they enjoy two more nights off after this one before a home game vs. the Sabres. This one sets up beautifully for the rested home side, which started the year injured and without a couple of key players (Evander Kane), but who have since returned. This is the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion. 

10* play on the San Jose Sharks.

The set-up: Buffalo is 5-0-1 and it won't be taking the Ducks by surprise, who are 4-2 to open the new season. This is a big test for the Sabres and I think they're going to falter. They're coming off three straight victories at home, but their next five games present their most difficult of the year so far, with a contest in LA tomorrow night, followed by a home and home set with San Jose, before then playing on the road vs. the Rangers. 

The pick: The Ducks lost 4-2 in Boston on Sunday afternoon, but they return home confident with three tough games ahead of them, with the Sabres tonight, followed by Carolina and Calgary. The Ducks also play with revenge here after falling 3-0 at Buffalo last Decenber 22nd. I think it's a great situational play, but also note that Buffalo is a terrible 1-4 (-2.8 units) after shutting out their opponent in its previous game and only 8-13 (-3.9 units) in its last 21 after playing three straight at home, while Anaheim is 5-0 in its last five at The Pond. All things considered, a great price in my opinion.

8* play on the Anaheim Ducks.

The set-up: The Flyers are off a 3-1 loss in Calgary last night. Previous to that they lost 3-2 in a shootout in Vancouver. After tonight the visiting side enjoys two whole nights off before a home game vs. the struggling Stars. I think the Flyers come in tired from last night's setback, while also getting caught looking ahead to their time off and more favorable home matchup.

The pick: The Oilers have had a night off to digest their first loss of the season, a 3-1 setback vs. a then winless Hawks team. With a night off before a game vs. the lowly Red Wings up next, the home side comes in fully focussed on the task at hand. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the home side (and the price is right too!) 

8* play on the Edmonton Oilers.

The set-up: South Alabama is 1-5 and Troy is slightly better at 2-3. Both teams enter off their respective bye weeks. A closer look at South Alabama's schedule though reveals a very difficult one in the early going (Nebraska, Memphis). Jaguars' second year coach Steve Campbell has his team moving in the right direction despite what the win/loss record says. Note that South Alabama held Nebraska to just 2.2 yards per carry. QB Cephus Johnson averaged 12.9 yards per throw and had two TD's and no INT's in his last game. Additionally note that South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference contests. 

The pick: Troy senior QB Kaleb Barker is under center now after starter Brandon Silvers left before the season started, and in his last start Barker had only 92 yards passing on 26 attempts with two INT's. The Trojans rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allower per attempt at 10.22. Note as well that Troy is a terrible 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on South Alabama.