Baylor/Iowa State

These are two of the top teams in College Basketball. Baylor, the defending National Champions, is rated #1 in the country. Iowa State, also undefeated coming into this game, is #8. Expect a defensive-minded affair. 

The success of Iowa State this season has certainly been a bit shocking. Key to the success is them being one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Cyclones rank #7 in the number of points per possession allowed and give up just 56.1 points per game. 

But Baylor is even better defensively, in terms of the number of points per possession allowed. They are 4th in that department. Additionally, the Bears give up just 56.8 points per game.

The last three Baylor games have all gone Over. But their last two opponents were Alcorn State and Northwestern State, two clearly overmatched teams. The Bears scored 94 and 104 points in those wins. They won’t be able to score anything close to that against Iowa State. 

Iowa State was 2-22 last year, so them turning around and starting this season 12–0 is something not anyone saw coming. Since the opener, the Cyclones have allowed more than 64 points in only one game. Neither of these teams like to play all that fast and it’s New Year’s Day, so the shots won’t be falling with any great regularity. 10* NEW YEAR’S SHOWDOWN on the UNDER Baylor/Iowa State

Oklahoma State/Notre Dame

Oklahoma State went 11-2. The Cowboys would ultimately go on to lose to Baylor in the Big 12 Title game. Normally OKS is known for its high-octane offense, but they held opponents to just 17 points per game, which ranks seventh in the country. The Cowboys were ranked second in the country on allowed third down conversions, conceding just 25 percent of such instances. They also led the nation in sacks with 55. The offense took a step back this sesaon though, entering averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 50th. QB Spencer Sanders had a pedestrian season, throwing for 2,468 yards, but with a 16:14 TD:INT ratio.

Brian Kelly has already left Notre Dame and several key players have opted out. Marcus Freeman is the new coach. Kyren Williams has left for the NFL. He was the team's leading rusher and had the second most TD's only behidn QB Jack Coan. The Irish rank ninth overall on the defensive end, conceding 18.3 PPG. 

Many new faces, but these defenses are elite. Each ranks in the Top 10. Expect them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 10* BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR. 

No one but the BearCats think they have a chance in this game, but they are unbeaten, and playing against a Crimson Tide team that is not without stumbles this year. What does Cincinnati need to do to stay close to Alabama? Alabama is a pass- first offense generating over 400 yards avg. in their last three games, and they blew out Georgia’s fine pass defense last game. The Bearcats’ run defense has improved over the last three games and they are exceptional in red zone defense, so the Tide’s running game is not such a threat. Slowing the passing game is possible: the Bearcats’ sack totals over the last three games have risen dramatically, and they have limited opposing Qbs in yards and yard per attempt..

As far as the Crimson Tide’s defense goes, two things stand out; nobody has much success running on them, and they are tough on opposing Qbs. Cincinnati’s pass offense does not compare. They have had success running the ball in their last three games, but that likely will not wash against Alabama.

Of all options in this game I like the total. The Alabama/Georgia game will be a roadmap for Cincinnati of where not to go. I don’t see the Bearcats scoring a ton of points, but I do see them holding Alabama to respectable levels. Look for the Bearcats to key on Bryce Young, and take away some of those huge plays. Take the total to go Under.

Pittsburgh/Michigan State

I absolutely  believe that this one favors the 11-2 Pittsburgh Panthers. Michigan State is only the "home" team on paper. 

The Panthers were 5-0 on the road this year, while MSU was just 4-2. The Panthers won the the ACC title, while the Spartans finished in third in the Big Ten East. 

Pittsburgh is led by QB Kenny Pickett, who had 4,319 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Panthers average 40.2 PPG, while allowing 24.4. Pickett is gone for the draft, but I don't expect much of a drop off here with Nick Patti, who completed 85.7 percent of his passes for 140 yards.

The Spartans are led by Payton Thorne, who had 2,886 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. MSU averages 31 PPG, while allowing 26.6. MSU will be without star RB Kenneth Walker III though.

Both teams were great in stopping the run, but the Panthers finished with 51 sacks this season, which was second in the nation.

Look for Pittsburgh to grind out a win here. 8* BOWL PLAY on Pittsburgh. 

You won’t know the players (and coaches) without a program in this one. Both teams are off disappointing ends to their years, losing head coaches to other institutions, and key players to the NFL draft, not to mention demoralizing losses. Oregon may also be affected by covid. The Ducks looked very poor against Utah (twice), and will have a long way to come back to make this game competitive. The Ducks run game and QB. Brown’s effectiveness took a real hit in their last games. Losing their best defensive player is troubling. The Ducks’ offense is very young. It will be tough to adjust to the changes.

The Sooners have lost key defensive pieces as well. Young QB Caleb Williams had a tough time of late but spent a lot of time on his back; he was pressured mercilessly in his last two games. The Ducks do not pressure the QB particularly well, and will be without their best pass rusher. Look for Williams to bounce back and step it out on the National stage. The Sooners have the benefit of a very experienced “guest” head coach, which may be of some motivation. I am on the Sooners to win and cover. Don’t delay on this one!

Lakers/Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are a big public play here, as the Lakers finally broke their five-game slide with a win at Houston last night.

This would typically be a great place to go against LA in the second game of a back-to-back, but there's simply no way that LeBron James can relax considering their current record.

LA also plays with revenge here after a 108-95 home defeat to the Grizz back on December 9th. 

Memphis comes in off B2B BIG wins, pulling away for a 127-102 victory over Sacramento, before then holding on for a 114-113 victory at Phoenix.

Can anyone say letdown spot?

Yes, the Lakers are without AD, but I expect The King and Russell Westbrook to build off last night's win and at the very least, take this one right down to the final moments. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Lakers. 

Memphis/Tulane

Memphis is 6-4, but it's 0-2 on the road. Tulane is 3-6 overall, including 2-2 at home. When these teams played last year, Memphis pulled away for a 61-46 win and the total stayed well "under" the posted number of 130.

I expect a similar final combined score this season as well.

The Green Wave average 72.1 PPG, while Memphis averages 77.7. However, each is underrated on the defensive end of the floor as well.

Each also comes in rested after having a few games postponed due to COVID. 

Look for this conference matchup to be a competitive one, but also a lower-scoring defensive affair. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Memphis/Tulane. 

WVU/Minnesota

This one is going to be close. I mean, I expect this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. THAT close!

WVU is gunning for its third straight win. It most recently beat Kansas by a score of 34-28 as 15.5-point favorites. 

The Gophers finished 8-4, while WVU was 6-6. Minnesota beat Wisconsin 23-13 as 7-point dogs in their finale.

Minnesota averages 26.5 PPG, while WVU averages 23.3.

The Gophers have the upper-hand defensively, conceding 18.3, while the Mountaineers allow 26.5.

I like Jarret Doege to test this Minnesota secondary and to at the very least, have his team competitive until the final moments. 8* BOWL play ON WVU. 

Yale/Saint Mary's

Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But I think the hungry underdog visiting side can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread that it's been afforded tonight.

This is Saint Mary's final non-conference matchup of the year. It has a big New Year's day game against San Francisco. I say the Gaels get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today.

The Bulldogs are 6-7 after a 69-60 loss to Monmouth. Overall Yale averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.8.

The Gaels are 11-3 and they're off a 75-58 win over Missouri State. Overall they average 67.5 PPG, while allowing 58.

I think Yale is catching Saint Mary's at a great time here. The Bulldogs are putting up over 70 PPG on average and I think they'll be much more competitive than what this line is suggesting. 10* COACHES CORNER on Yale. 

Even after their shutout against the Bucanneers,  there is still the Saints' 9 point offense to consider, and that was with their quarterback and some other key pieces who will be missing this week.  Now the Saints are down to their 3rd or 4th string QB.  A Saints win would make a great Disney feature, but lets face it; "this ain't no movie", as the song goes. 

The Saints defense has dominant last week, and has been their strong suit all season.  The Dolphins allowed 24 points to the Jets, but this was not a result for the Dolphins.  In their previous 5 games they allowed an average of around 12 points per game, while reeling off 5 staight wins.

Tagovailoa has improved over the course of the season, and has been accurate and well protected of late. The Dolphins have shown dramatic improvement in offense. Here are a pair of stats to compare: Dolphins have scored 28 points on average in their last three games compared to 18 for the Saints. The Dolphins have an 81 scoring % in the red zone over the last two weeks, compared to the Saints’ 28% rate.

It appears to have been a doomed season for the Saints. They are depleted once again, and we saw  where that got them earlier in the year. Take the Dolphins to win and cover.

Brown/Syracuse

The Brown Bears are 8-5. They've won three straight on the road, but I think they'll predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue and against this "step up" in competition.

Syraucse had its two game win streak snapped with B2B losses, falling 67-63 to Villanova on a neutral court, before then dropping a 79-75 decision at Georgetown as a 3-point favorite in its last outing. The Orange though average 77.5 PPG, while Brown averages just 72.8.

The Orange are far superior defensively and have one last opportunity here for a tune-up befor the majority of league action gets underway.

Look for Brown to take a step back after three straight wins and for the Orange to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn.

10* Coaches Corner on Syracuse. 

WMU/Nevada

These team's end of season numbers are similar, but WMU faced the more difficult overall schedule.

The Western Michigan Broncos average 30 PPG, while allowing 28.6. Nevada averages 36.7 PPG, while allowing 24.4. 

Each is led by a dynamic, playmaking QB. WMU has Kaleb Eleby, who finished with 3,115 yards passing, 21 TD's and five interceptions. Nevada is led by Carson Strong, who finished with 4,186 yards passing, 36 TD's and eight INT's. 

Nevada will also have an interim coach here in Vau Taua, who will fill in for Jay Norvell, who has already taken off for the Colorado State head coaching job.

WMU's entire roster will essentially be on the field of play today as well. Look for that to be a big difference-maker and lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on WMU. 

The numbers have dropped to a more reasonable level in the WTF/Cowboys game.  The WFT must be thinking "WTF" after their last couple of weeks.  Although players, including Heinicke, are returning, the team is still suffering the effects of Covid, a very short turnaround, 2 demoralizing losses, and an away game.  The Cowboys are healthier, at home, and no doubt still motivated.  Prescott is a few weeks past his return and was looking better last week.  The WFT excels nowhere on offense and may be missing their best runningback. Their defense had been very solid against the run this season but has regressed significantly lately. Other than pressuriing the passer, their pass defense is among the worst in the league.

Dallas' defense has gone from worst to almost first this season; the unexpected powerhouse of this team.  Look for a more settled offense to return to early season form.  The Cowboys have been good against the spread for most of the season.  Now that the points are out of the double figures, take the Cowboys to win and cover.

Big Ben is no longer the formidable opponent he once was, but he is still the only show in town as far as the Steelers’ offense goes. The pass game is definitely middle of the pack, but the Steelers just don’t run. Period. They are 31st in the NFL in rush yards, and 30th in rush 1st downs. They don’t defend the run well either; their rush defense is 31st on average, and abysmal in their last two games. What the Steelers do well on defense is defend against the pass (12th rated and improving) and get to opposing Qbs (2nd and improving). How does this stack up against the Chiefs? The Chiefs can run, and will if pressed, but it is usually a second choice. The Steelers’ offense may shift the Chiefs to more of a run-first style of offense, so likely no 413 yards passing this week and maybe a lot less points scored. Other than last week, the Chiefs have held opposing teams to less than 9 points a game over a 5 game stretch. They are a “bend but don’t break” defense. Roethlisberger may have some success against them but I don’t see him stacking up the points. Considering the matchup and the Chiefs’ ability to keep the score down, I think the game’s total is high. Take the Steelers and Chiefs to go under the total.

The Bills face New England in a critical game for both teams. The Patriots ran all over the Bills in their last windswept meeting, but weather, with possible snow, may still be a factor this time out. Covid may also be a factor with the Bills especially depleted.

After allowing a very uncharacteristic 27 points to the Colts, look for the Patriots’ defense to bounce back this week. Josh Allen is hampered by a foot injury, which may affect his usual mobility. The Patriots’ pass defense is tough on pass offenses, with low yards allowed and good QB pressure stats.

The Bills defense is very strong against the pass, but has been run on lately. Other than last week, QB pressure is not their strong point. The New England O line has protected Jones very well lately, while Allen has been sacked with frequency, specially last game.

Enter Belichik, New England’s thirteenth man. He and the Patriots are off a loss; two in a row is not a part of the plan. This game could be close, but a hampered Allen, the Bills covid issues, and the Bills’ uneven season sway me towards the Patriots. New England to win and cover.

Colts/Cardinals  

If you took the Cardinals' stats for the last three games and compared them to NFL season averages, they would be in the bottom 10 % of the league.  This, against the Lions, Bears and Raiders.  This would appear to be a serious downturn rather than a fly on the windshield.  On the other side, the Colts are peaking, with dramatically better performance across the board over the same period against much tougher competition (NE, Houston, Tampa Bay).

If Arizona has any chance to bounce back on Saturday, it will be up to Murray and his targets, as the Colts are very tough to run against.  Murray has not looked himself in his last two games and the Cardinals' pass yards and completion % have plummeted.  The Colts' offense is all about Taylor and the run, with Wentz performing as needed.  Curiously, Wentz has more pass TDs than Murray, with minimal interceptions.  The Colts' O line has protected their QB better than has Arizonas'. The Colts are very good on the road while the Cardinals, even when hot, have been indifferent at home. 

Yes, the Cardinals could bounce back on Saturday, but i wouldn't count on it.  Take the Colts to stay the course. Colts + anything should work.  A sizable win would not astonish me.

Nets/Lakers

Yes, the Lakers are without Anthony Davis, but without Kevin Durant in the line-up, I thikn the Nets are going to struggle against this determined and desperate home side.

A loss here today will not affect the 21-9 Nets whatsoever in their division or the Eastern Conference standings. Sure, they'd LOVE to beat the Lakers here on national TV, but withtout their "heart and soul" in the line-up, I say that'll be too big of a hole to climb out of.

The Nets haven't played in over a week due to two other games getting postponed due to COVID related issues. They last beat the Magic 100-93 as a 5.5-point favorite. Durant was out and they struggled offensively.

The Spurs beat the Lakers here 138-110 on Wednesday. Lebron James had 36 points and nine boards, while Russell Westbrook scored 30 points. 

At this point, EVERY team in the league is dealing with COVID related issues, but I think that a healthy and motivated James and Westbrook will be just too much for James Harden to overcome today.

This one means a lot more to LA and I look for that desperation to be the difference in the end. 10* GAME OF YEAR on LA. 

The Browns have had a tough season to date but are starting to get healthier.  One thing that hasn't suffered lately is their defense, giving up less than 16 points on average over their last four games.  The Browns are in desperation mode, and while you can't expect Rodgers and Co. to take it easy today, they know where they are headed already.  The Browns have one of the very best running backs in the league and the Packers can be run against. The best way to control Rodgers is to keep him off the field.  The Browns are tough against opposing QBs, both in yards allowed and in pressuring QBs.  The Packers have not protected Rodgers particularily well lately.  Mayfield may be back today but hasn't practised, and the Browns are very poor at scoring on the road.  Look for this game to produce less points that expected.  Take the total to go under..

Georgia State/Ball State

While both teams looked decent defensively at times down the stretch of the regular season, that side of the ball was each their weak points.

Georgia State is 7-5. It's coming off a 37-10 win over Troy. QB Darren Grainger is a dual-threat that finished with 1,512 yards passing, 16 TD's and four INT's, while also rushing for 524 yards (4.3 YPC), and two rushing TD's. 

Defensively though they allow 27.7 PPG. Drew Pitt and the Cardinals will look to take advantage. Pitt finished with 2,248 yards passing, 17 TD's and finve IT's this year (also had 150 rushing yards.)

However, like their opponent today, the Cardinals weakness this season was on the defensive side of the ball where they allowed 26.5 PPG on average (the Bulls were 9 of 18 on third down in their last game and they converted their only fourth down attempt as well.) 

Expect these two well-rested sides to push the pace from the start. This one flies over the number. 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on over. 

Hornets/Nuggets

Every team in the league is dealing with significant injuries and COVID protocol. This play is a great situational one though, as fatigue is also a major facto at this time of year, especially for teams playing the second game of a B2B.

Denver is coming off a 108-94 loss at OKC just last night (I had the Thunder in that one, my 10* GAME OF WEEK), and I believe it'll be predictably "gassed" here.

The Nuggets don't play again until December 26th, where they start off with a two-game road trip our of the X-Mas break at the Clippers and Golden State respectively.

Charlotte has lost all three of its road games so far on this trip, and I say it lays everything on the line in the finale to try and salvage a victory.

As stated off the top, this isn't based around who is or isn't on the court this evening, it's a great overall "situational" play. 8* PLAY on Hornets. 

The Titans are up against a very hot 49ers team with first place in the AFC south now in jeopardy. They have not been scoring enough points to win with any regularity. Off a disappointing loss, and with far too many turnovers lately, is there any likelihood that the Titans can bounce back? The Titans are still a rush-first offense and are running for yards with success, but they are up against a solid 49ers rush defense. Their pass offense is very weak, down 80 yards per game over their last 3 starts when compared to their season average. It is uncertain if one or both of WRs Brown or Jones will be starting this week. Tannehill has been sacked 37 times this year and will likely spend more time on his back as the 49ers are 10th in the league and improving in sacks.

The 49ers have seen growth in their rush offense lately but are up against a very tough Titans rush defense that has been lights out in their last three starts. Garoppolo has silenced a few of his critics with some decent numbers lately. He is accurate and has cut down on hi turnovers. The 49ers have protected him well this season. Of note, the 49ers are best in the league in red zone scoring %. That said, the Titans’ pass defense has been much improved lately, allowing fewer yards and Tds against. Their sack totals have also picked up.

Given their recent success, the 49ers have not faced a really tough defense lately. The Titans are hard to score against, but are only averaging 15 points per game over the last 4 games, and I don’t expect a significant improvement this week. Take the 49ers and Titans to go UNDER THE TOTAL ON THURSDAY

Fresno State/Weber State

The Bulldogs are 9-3 this year. They're coming off a 55-50 road loss at Utah on Tuesday and I think they'll have a predictable "letdown" here as well in this difficult road venue. 

Orlando Robinson averages 18.2 points and 8.2 boards for Fresno State. So far the Bulldogs have conceded just 55.9 PPG this season.

The Wildcats are 9-3 so far as well. They're off an 89-71 home loss to BYU. Koby McEwan leads the way most nights by averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Weber State is so far allowing 68.4 PPG.

The level of competition that each has faced to this point has to be taken into account for both teams. Weber State rebounds here at home and takes advantage of a now vulnerable Bulldogs side. 10* COACHES CORNER on Weber State. 

Denver/OKC

I think Denver is going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. OKC has won two straight games and covered in three straight. It's playing its best basketball of the season. Off the 102-99 road win at Memphis, it has a tough game at Phoenix tomorrow, so I expect it to make the most of friendly confines.

Denver is just 7-9 on the road. It only averages 106.8 PPG. Off a 133-115 road win at Atlanta and with a game at home tomorrow night against LaMelo Ball and the Hornets, not only is this a letdown off the big win over the Hawks, but a look-ahead spot as well.

Look for the "under the radar" Grizz to, at the very least, keep this one close down the stretch. 10* GAME OF WEEK on Thunder. 

Kennesaw State/Nebraska

Two teams in need of a win before the X-Mas break go H2H here. I think this one favors the favorite though. The Kennesaw State Owls have lost five of their last seven, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter looking to snap a five-game slide.

Kennessaw State averages 76.4 PPG, while allowing 72.1. Chris Youngblood is the star, averaging 13.5 points and 5.4 boards per game. 

Nebraska averages 73.9 PPG, while conceding 76.6. Alzono Verge Jr. averages 16.4 points and 5.8 boards per game. 

The Owls have lost five straight on the road. Yes, Nebraska has struggled to this point, but the level of competition for each school must be factored in here as well. 

The Cornhuskers will enjoy a week off over Christmas before getting into their conference schedule and I believe they make the most of this "tune up." Kennesaw State has lost five straight on the road and I don't trust its defense here in this difficult road venue.

Look for Nebraska to play hard until the final horn. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF YEAR on Nebraska. 

It is a tough call on the Seahawks/ Rams game, because of the Covid disruption. The Seahawks defense has shown real improvement lately in points allowed, red zone protection and rushing yards allowed. Their run offense has climbed dramatically, and Russel has looked back in form. How will they fare against the Rams? Much depends on who is playing today so it will be a last minute decision. The Rams are all about pass offense, with Stafford and Cupp front and center. It is not that the Rams never run, but they are 25th in the league at the moment, so winning against the Rams means controlling the pass. The Seahawks are not successful in QB pressure,(29th rated). They are worst in the league in pass yards allowed and there has been no sign of improvement lately. The Rams are not a warm and fuzzy matchup for the Seahakwks defense.

Northwestern State/Texas A&M

I think the 3-9 Northwestern State Demons come in under the radar here agains the 8-2 Texas A&M Aggies.

The Demons are off a 104-50 win over subdivision Southwest Adventist. Kendal Coleman continues to be a consistent bright spot by averaging 15.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. 

The Aggies have been impressive, but I say they have a small letdown here afrer their big 83-73 win over Oregon State last time out. Quenton Jackson is the lone double-digit scorer for the Aggies with 12.5 PPG.

Northwestern State averages 70.2 PPG, while allowing 79.7.

The Aggies average 72 PPG, while conceding 62.2.

Look for the visitors to hang around late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Northwestern State. 

Kent/Wyoming

It's the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Golden Flashes finished 7-6 and first in the MAC East Division. The Cowboys were 6-6 and finished fourth in the Mountain Division of the MWC.

Kent averages 30.3 PPG, while the Cowboys average only 23.5. The Golden Flashes have struggled defensively, but they catch a big break here facing this stagnant Cowboys' offense. 

Wyoming dropped six of its last final eight games. Sean Chambers is going to have to shoulder the load here with the Golden Flashes stacking the box. Chambers threw more INT's than TD's this year. 

The Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses in the country, which plays right into Kent's strength on the offensive side.

I think the outright is possible, but let's grab the points. 8* SPECIAL on Kent. 

After a streak of wins, the Wild have lost three straight, the last one to Buffalo.  Dallas hasn't had much success lately either, and prior to their last game against Chicago, has a serious power outage with only 3 goals scored in 4 games.  With two middle-of-the-pack defenses and equally matched goaltenders, the difference-maker in this game will be the Wild's offense, 2nd in the league at the moment.  The Stars are very good at home, and the Wild only average on the road, but I am not convinced that the Dallas offfense is clicking yet.  The underdog Wild are due, and will bounce back tonight.

Wild to win outright.

Vikings/Bears

The Bears have scored 52 points in their last two games, a huge improvement over their lowly 17 point scored average. The Bears have a solid run game, but the improvement has come in the passing game, with good increases in passing yards and points in the last three games. Unfortunately the Bears defense, already 28th rated, is much worse over their last three games.

The Vikings haven’t had a low scoring game since week 4. They are 10th and climbing in points scored, with an average of 30 points in their last three games. Like the Bears, their points allowed, never low, has climbed to 29 over the last three games.

On the field, the Vikings defense is 26th and 27th rated against the pass and run respectively, but they are top in the league at applying QB pressure. Luckily for the Bears, Field has handled the blitz well and has the advantage of scrambling impressively. The Bears defense struggle against the run but generally handle the pass well. The Vikings put up monster numbers with the run offense last week and have shown improvement well above average with their run game lately. Against Cousins, the Bears face a well protected, dynamic, and accurate QB, with high TD totals and low interception and sack numbers. Cousins could very well pick the Bears offense apart, just as Rogers did last week.

Lets see, both teams are scoring more on offense and allowing more on defense. It doesn’t take rocket science to see the potential for a high scoring affair. This game is a definite total over selection

Maryland Eastern Shore/Charlotte 

Both teams enter at 5-5. 

The Hawks enter off a 79-43 win over St. Mary's AD. Nathaniel Pollard had 16 points and 8 boards. I was impressed by their defensive play and I believe that confidence/momentum is carried over here.

In fact, Maryland Eastern Shore enters having won three straight. 

Charlotte will be out to rebound from an 82-79 loss to Wake Forest. Jahmir Young exploded for 27 points, 9 boards and 4 assists for the 49ers.

Both teams have seen the total go "over" the number in two straight, but I expect this competitive contest to be a tighter defensive one in the end. 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the under. 

Saints/Buccaneers.

The Saints meet up with the Bucs sporting an impressive recent history against them. Can they continue their unlikely dominance against the immensely talented Brady and Co? Probably not. Can they keep this game close? Yes, and here is why.

The Saints have struggled this season and have had severe injury issues. In week 15, their three very good rush options (Hill, Kamara, Ingram) are all healthy. And yes, you can run on the Bucs. While third in defense against the run for the season, the Bucs’ rush defense has degraded of late, both in yards allowed, yards per carry, and points allowed of late. In addition, they have a hard time against a QB who can run. I think the Saints’ healthy and diverse run offense will have success against the Bucs.

It is unlikely that they will completely control Brady, but with an established run game, they can keep him off the field. The Buccaneers have become somewhat less of a pass first offense of late, but RB Fournette is questionable or compromised this week. The Saints defense has been very good against the run and best in the league at red zone defense. Their pass defense has improved dramatically of late. They have been able to get to Brady in the past, although the Bucs’ O line is generally very solid.. If they can key on Brady, they can prevent a blowout.

The Bucs’ defense is only average against the pass, but very good in QB pressure. The second key is whether Hil can establish enough of a passing game to be effective.

The Saints need a win here to stay in the running. A win is unlikely but I am counting on them to keep this game close. Take the Saints with the points.

The Broncos are off a lopsided win, the Bengals off a pair of losses. This is THE game to ante in or fold for both teams, in what will likely be a very close match up. At QB, the young dynamic Burrow gets the nod over Bridgewater, but with a couple of caveats. Burrow has been sacked an astounding 41 times, and has thrown for too many interceptions. Still, he is very cool under fire, and very good against the blitz.

Both teams have solid run offenses. The Broncos have been “runnin’ fools” in the last 3 weeks. The Broncos are a run-first offense, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday, which plays to the Bengals’ strength on defense. Forcing Bridgewater to throw will likely be a Bengals focus.

Denver’s defense is strong against the pass and great in the red zone. Some teams have run on them and they are only average in QB pressure, which might be a break for Burrow. The Bengals defense does two things very well. They apply pressure to opposing QBs, and as noted are very strong against the run.

This game will be close, and likely hinges on turnovers. If the Bengals control their turnovers, they win outright. While the Broncos are solid in ball control, I still like the explosiveness of a Burrow-led Bengals offense. Take the Bengals with the points.

The Islanders, on home ice, have won 3 of 5, but face a much stiffer opponent in the Golden Knights.  New York is offensively stunted, and will be missing Barzal tonight.  Their defense has not been as tight as usual or expected, ranked only 15th in the league.  The Knights are healthy, rested, and with a ton of firepower lately.  I don't trust Lehner, but the rest of the team has compensated well for a sub-par goaltender.  The Knights have 21 goals in 5 games, and have won three straight on the road.  Pay the points and take the Golden knights to win.

Robert Morris/Bowling Green

I think that Bowling Green gets caught "looking past" the lowly 1-8 Robert Morris Colonials. Most recently Robert Morris fell 85-74 to Florida Gulf Coast. The team is led by Kahiel Spear, who averages 13.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The Colonials average 70 PPG, while allowing 77.7. 

Bowling Green gets caught complacent after its 73-72 win over Oakland last time out. Daeqwon Plowden leads the way most nights for the Falcons with 15.1 points and 7.3 RPG. On the season BG is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 74.7.

Bowling Green is just 6-24-2 ATS in its last 32 home games. With the X-Mas break upcoming, look for the Falcons to take the foot off the gas in the second half.

10* COACHES CORNER on Robert Morris. 

Cardinals/Lions

This is a very lopsided match-up with an equally large point spread. I can’t see the Cardinals not taking the Lions seriously. I think the reverse is more likely. After a tough loss and a blow to their collective egos, I see the Cardinals out for blood, with no mercy shown. Looking at games where Arizona has played the NFL lesser lights, there have been some very big margins. The stats are remarkably one sided; there is no one area that the Lions excel in for them to take any purchase on keeping this game close. A couple of key stats: red zone success- Arizona, 3rd, Detroit, 31st, and sacks- Cardinals 6th and climbing, Lions 31st. Murray will have lots of protection but it could be a very long evening for Goff.

The Lions lost by 28 against Denver last week. As much as this is a large spread, I think the Cardinals will win and cover. Expect a similar result to week 14

UL Lafayette/Marshall

This is the New Orleans Bowl. While the outright is possible, let's grab the points.

This is a neutral site game, but Lafayette should have more fans in the stands because of the proximity, but regardless I like the underdog in this one. The Herd finished 7-5. Marshall averages 34 points per game, while allowing 22.8.

The No. 17 Ragin Cajuns beat App State 24-16 in the Sun Belt Conferece Championship game. UL Lafayette averages 30.7 PPG, while allowing 18.3.

The Herd have the offense to keep pace and their defense will be one of hte best that the Cajuns have faced all season.

I expect a war until the final horn. 10* PLAYBOOK on Marshall. 

Wizards/Jazz

Washington comes in under the radar here after four straight losses. Utah comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won eight of its last nine.

These teams are moving in opposite directions, but I think the more desperate side will deliver ATS. This is a revenge game as well for Washington, that lost both SU and ATS at home to the Jazz earlier in the season.

Note that Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 as a road dog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range.

I say this one is WAY tighter than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Wizards. 

Patriots/Colts

The Patriots are 7-0 in recent games. All the wins have one thing in common; their opponents just don’t score enough points to win. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. Off a bye and 3 pass win against the Bills, Jones’ arm will be well rested if nothing else. Lets see if he can shine against an average Colts pass defense.

The Colts are on a win one-lose one pattern, but have been piling up and allowing points in a big way, mostly scoring on the back of Jonathon Taylor. Controlling Taylor will be the key for the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid run defense and Belichick has had a week and a half to come up with a plan. The Patriots do give up some rushing yards, but they are best in the league in fewest rushing points allowed.

It will not be easy for Colts QB Wentz on Saturday. Wentz has been OK for the Colts and has shown some improvement lately, but he will be up against a very tough Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, NE’s passing yards allowed have dropped from a seasonal average of 195 to 113 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and very solid pressuring the passer.

While the Colts have Taylor, the Patriots’ have a trio of good options up against the Colts’ middle of the road run defense.

It is hard to bet against the Patriots, but as a slight underdog, it would not be wise. Look for them to reign in Taylor to some degree. If this happens, I don’t see Wentz picking up the slack. Patriots

Southern Utah/Michigan

Off an upset 75-65 home loss to Minnesota as a 13.5-point favorite, and with their X-Mas Break up next before a game at UCF on December 30th, I believe the Huskies get caught looking right past their lowly non-conference opponent tonight.

The Wolverines only average 72.1 PPG, which ranks 182nd. Southern Utah averages 81.6, which ranks 24th.

Of course, the Thunderbirds early numbers need to be taken with a proverbial 'grain of salt' due to the level of competition it's faced, but there's no question that Southern Utah has already exceeded expectations in the Big Sky.

No outright, but closer than expected. 8* PLAY on Southern Utah. 

Grizzlies/Kings

The Grizz enter off a 113-103 road win at Portland. The Kings are off a 119-105 home win over the Wizards.

Memphis picked up the 128-101 home win in early November over Sacramento, and I expect a similar final outcome here as well.

The biggest difference comes on the defensive end. Memphis allows 109 PPG, which isn't great (ranked 19th), but Sacramento concedes 114 PPG.

The Kings are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Grizz are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five on the road and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following an ATS victory. 8* PLAY-BOOK on Grizzlies. 

UTRGV/UTSA

I like the Vaqueros to keep this one close. UTRGV is 4-7, while the UTSA Roadrunners are 6-4. 

UTRGV is off a 70-60 loss to Texas Southern. RayQuan Taylor was a bright spot in defeat with 16 points and six boards. 

UTSA is 3-1 in its last four. It's off a tighter than expectd 78-73 win over Sam Houston on Saturday. 

The Roadrunners' strength of schedule has to be questioned somewhat. I see this one coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so that means I'm grabbing the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Texas Rio Grande Valley. 

The Sabres/Penguins game features a very lopsided goalie match-up.  M. Subban is expected to start for the Sabres tonight, and he struggled big time in his first appearance.  The Sabres' weakness is on defense at the best of times.   At the other end, Jarry has been formidable all season. as has the Penguins' defense.  Pittsburgh is rested, while the Sabres are on the wrong end of a back to back.  Th Penguins  have won five straight and are consistent in  beating the NHL lesser lights with authority.  The Sabres are not a very successful road team.  The odds aren't great  with the Penguins on the puck line but it is definately the way to go today.  Take the Penguins - 1 1/2 goals

Dartmouth/Stanford

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring "overs" of late, but I think this non-conference matchup will produce a lower-scoring game finally.

Dartmouth is out to snap a four-game slide. The Big Green average 70.9 PPG, while allowing 70.8. Clearly the margin of error is razor slim for Dartmouth most nights.

The Big Green's defense catchs somewhat of a break today facing Stanford's methodical attack that produces 69.9 PPG on average. 

The Cardinal though will need to get things figured out on the defensive end before conference play gets underway if they have any hopes of competing this season, as they allow 70 PPG on average so far.

Stanford will have to be cautious to not get caught looking ahead here, despite this being an important final tune-up. I say the last thing that the home side can do is to turn this into a "track meet." I expect a defensive affair. 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Dartmouth/Stanford. 

Step back to NFL week three when the Chargers knocked off the Chiefs 30-24. Fast forward to now. It is remarkable how the Chiefs became so tough to play against. It is now 4 of 5 games that the Chiefs have allowed less than NINE points. Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in TDs allowed. They have also become much tougher in pressuring the QB, which will be critical on Thursday

While the Chargers are very good defending against the pass, they have been run on almost at will at times by opposing teams, and are 30th defending in the red zone. They have not allowed less than 20 points since week on.

Mahomes and Herbert are quite similar when the stats are compared. Both are a solid run option, and can be explosive. Mahomes has been lower key, but did bounce back for a huge game in week 14. Herbert had some struggles after a strong start, but has been dominant of late.

Oddly, the running game may decide this match up. The Chiefs’ no longer require Mahomes to be their only option. They have a number of viable run options, against a weak Chargers defense. The Chargers are far more reliant on Herbert as a one trick pony. Their best RB is limited this week, and the Chiefs defense has been all over the run in the last few games.

The last time the Chargers faced a tough defense (Denver) they did not fare well. I don’t see the Chiefs reverting to their early season struggles on defense, and Mahomes looked pretty fired up last week. The Chiefs just have more options than the Chargers. Look for KC to control Herbert, and win the rematch. Chiefs to win and cover..

The Golden Knights offense is back in form and scoring in bunches while winning 5 of 6.  New Jersey has not been winning and can't put the puck in the net.  With the 30th rated defense and an average goalie in Blackwood, the potential for many goals against is high.  Knights goaltender Lehner is coming off a fine outing against the Bruins, so maybe he too is rounding into form.  The Devils have some illness issues while the Knights are as healthy as they have been this season.  Vegas is a big favorite, but ought to be good for a couple of goals.  Take Vegas - 1 1/2 all the way to the bank.

The Kraken knocked off the Sharks last night but will likely not fare as well against the Ducks in a back to back road game.  Grubauer is in the net.  His stock is plummeting with an .884 SV% and three straight losses. No one is taking the Kraken for granted anymore, and the Ducks have far better options in the net.  The well-rested Ducks are very consistent, regularily beating the teams they should beat, and giving the best teams a run for their money.  Not to mention a better offense and a defense that has allowed only 5 goals in the past 4 games. Anaheim is very good at home, and the Kraken has not been much of a road team this year.  Take the Ducks to win.

Northern Colorado/Arizona

The 6-5 Northern Colorado Bears are going to catch the 9-0 Wilcats looking past them here to their long Christmas break, before a big road conference road trip starting at UCLA on December 30th.

The Bears are off a 74-69 win over South Dakota. They average 74.6 PPG, while allowing 72.8. Clearly, the last thing the visiting side can do is turn this into a faster-paced affair and expect to "hang" with the highest-scoring team in the nation.

Arizona averages 90.7 PPG, while allowing 61.7. The Wildcats though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a non-conference home favoirte in the -23 to -27 points range.

I look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half. No outright, but closer than expected. Northern Colorado 10* COACHES CORNER. 

Pacers/Bucks

Bucks' star Giannis is sidelined with COVID issues. The Bucks are going to have to make adjustments quickly, which comes at the wrong time here facing the improved Pacers.

Indiana had its four game win streak snapped in a 102-100 setback at home to the Warriors last time out. This is a revenge game for the Pacers though after falling 118-100 to Milwaukee in early November. 

The Bucks are off a 117-103 loss at Boston. Note that Milwaukee is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 105 points or less in.

A great situational play. Outright possible, but grab the points. 8* PLAY on Pacers. 

Warriors/Knicks

The Knicks were the talk of the NBA last season. They're struggling this year though, as they enter having lost three straight, most recently a 112-97 home loss to the Bucks (New York though is 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 points or less in.)

Golden State is now 17-9-1 after last night's 102-100 win at Indiana. The Warriors long Eastern-Conference road swing continues with games at Boston and Toronto after this.

On the heels of the second game of the B2B scenario though, I expect the Warriors to finally stumble here.

The Knicks are ultra-motivated to break out of their slump and here's the perfect "measuring stick" to do that against. New York has all the motivation it needs to get off the schneid and I expect it to deliver. That said, grab the points! 10* GAME OF THE WEEK.

Don't look now but the Senators have won 4 of 5. They are finally healthy and rested. They were expected to be better this year, so it is easy to underestimate them.  The Panthers have not been as dominant lately and have had some unlikely losses to low ranked teams. It wouldn't surprise me if the Senators out and out stole this one, but the odds are still favorable with the points.  Take the Senators +1 1/2.

VMI/Wake Forest

Outright victory? I don't think so. But I do absolutely believe the 7-4 VMI Keydets will keep this one close. Wake Forest is 9-1. 

VMI averages 80.3 PPG and it allows 64.6. Kamdyn Curfman averages 17.6 points and 2.5 boards per game. 

The Demon Deacons average 81.5 PPG, while conceding 65.6. Alondes Williams averages 18.2 points and 6.6 rebounds to lead the team in each category.

Wake Forest is the better overall team, but VMI has the offense to hang around. That's exactly what I'm expecting! 8* PLAY on VMI. 

Wizards/Nuggets

Denver returns home after a 4-3, seven-game road trip. I say the Nuggets stumble here in this first game back in friendly confines. That's often the case with professional athletes, who get a little TOO comfortable at home after an extended road trip.

Two nights after falling 123-111 at San Antonio, the Nuggets bounced back with a 127-112 win on the road in the rematch.

Washington is the much "hungrier" dog in this fight. it's lost three of its last four, including a 123-98 setback at home to the Jazz last time out. Washington though is 7-1 ATS in its last eight off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 points or less in.

Both teams have plenty of injury issues to contend with, but this one has all the makings of a "nail-biter!" As such, let's grab the points. 8* PLAY on Wizards. 

Rams/Cardinals

The Rams are 8-4, but their list of conquests reads like the NFL bottom-feeders club. The last time they beat a team with a winning record was week one. Arizona has a far more impressive pedigree this year, and continued to win without their starting Qb. Comparing quarterbacks, Stafford throws for more yards and TDs, is less accurate, with more interceptions and some questionable decision making. He has been very well protected by his O-line, but that may change this week. While Murray didn’t throw much in his return, he is more accurate, and is a real option to run, health permitting. He has weathered more pressure than Stafford.

As the run goes, the Rams don’t. Much. They are missing their top RB, but Michel did fill in well last game. The Cardinals have a solid pair of options (three if you count Murray) they can rely upon. They are top of the pack in rushing Tds.

The Rams run defense give up a lot of yards and points (23rd rated), but against the pass, they are straight out tough. The Cardinals defense is strong all around and very tough in the red zone. Both teams have exceptional pass rushes.

So who wins this one? If you ask me, it is the Cardinals. They beat the Rams previously, have faced tougher competition with better results, and have a more balanced offense. Take the Cardinals to win outright.

The Canucks have been on a roll but face a stiff opponent in the Hurricanes, even on a back to back.  Raanta is in the net, and has been solid when he plays. Demko has kept the Canucks in many games and is much better than his save % would suggest.  The Canes have knocked off the Oilers and the Flames on this road trip, so i don't think they will let this game get away..  The Canucks still aren't scoring, and the under has bee a trend for both teams.  Stick with that trend and take the under tonight.

Magic/Lakers

LA has a nasty habit of "playing down" to the level of its competition and all signs point to that occurring here against the 5-22 Magic.

Orlando has lost four in a row. It hasn't been for a lack of trying though, most recently fallling 106-104 to the Clippers.

The Lakers are the slowest team in the NBA. They've been wildly inconsistent. They're off an easy win at OKC, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 99 or less points in.

LA could even rest some starters here. No outright, but closer than expected. 8* PLAY on Magic. 

The Bears rumble into their match against the Packers and it won’t be a picnic. While the Bears are trending towards healthy, or at least healthier, the Packers are still a force to be reckoned with. The Bears’ rookie QB is back from injury, but this is hardly cause for celebration. Justin Field’s numbers are not impressive. Two stats stand out; 4 Tds against 8 interceptions, and an ugly 31 sacks. No wonder his ribs hurt. On the plus side, he can run. At QB this game is a mismatch. Compare to Rodgers’ 23 Tds, vs 4 interceptions and 21 sacks. Rogers will likely control this game, using the Packers’ very average running game when he needs to.

All the signs point to a big Packers win, but Rodgers’ comments no doubt stung. A win is likely out of the question for the Bears, but what do they have or need to keep this one close?

1. Run the ball successfully and slow the game down. Montgomery can be a force to be reckoned with, and Fields, if he is up to it, can also run. The Packers’ defense are tough against the run, especially lately.

2. The Bears defense is poor against the run, but solid against the pass. They can and will want to get to Rodgers today. Making his life miserable will likely be job #1.

3. Control turnovers. Fields has been a walking interception machine. Rodgers is very careful with the ball. The Bears must protected their QB today.

4. Take advantage in the red zone. One of the Bears’ successes has been their ability to finish their chances which are few enough. This will be critical today.

I think the line is about right in normal circumstances, but I think the Bears will make the extra effort to stand proud and keep this game closer than expected. Take the Bears with the points.

The Bills meet the Bucs in a much awaited matchup. The game features two premier passers and a pair of pass-first offenses, so the outcome depends on how each team defends. Brady and his receivers face the Bills’ top ranked pass defense, but what the Bills don’t do is pressure the quarterback effectively. The Bucs have been very good at protecting Brady, so we can see a situation where Brady, with time, will be throwing against a very good secondary. For Allen the reverse is true. The Bucs have the 20th ranked pass defense, but are very good at pressuring the opposing QB. They are fourth in sacks for the season and had 5 last week. Can the Bucs get to Allen regularly or will he pick them to pieces through the air? A key factor in this game could be defense in the red zone. While the Bucs give up passing yards, they are significantly better than the Bills in defending in the red zone.

What about the running game? What running game.. The Bills don’t run much. Even last week in gale force winds, they stuck to the program. It is tough to run against the Bucs; they are 2nd rated in rushing defense. Tampa Bay has viable run options, but it is always option #2. Looking at how successful teams have been against the usually dependable Bills' run defense lately might give the Bucs pause for thought.

The Bills have been uneven this year, but good on the road. The Bucs, other than a blip in the beginning of November have maintained a steady ship, and are undefeated at home. Brady and Gronk have owned the Bills. Take Tampa Bay to win and cover.

FAMU/Akron.

The 2-5 Rattlers get ready to take on the 5-3 Zips. Outright win? I'm not calling for that.

But I do think this is a few too many points to be giving up to FAMU.

FAMU enters off a 69-55 loss to Florida Gulf Coast last time out. Bryce Morgan was a bright spot with 13 points (the Rattlers though are 7-1 ATS in their last eight off a SU/ATS loss in which they were held to 55 points or less in.)

The Zips have won three straight. They're the better team. But I think they come in complacent here and get caught looking past their lowly opponent (note that Akron is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a double-digit non-conference home favorite.)

The Rattlers are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Florida A&M.

The Raiders meet the Chiefs in a rematch, with the Chiefs winning in a blowout in Vegas last time out. The Chiefs are winning, but not as expected; their defense is ruling the roost, allowing an average of only10 points over their last 4 games. Vegas has struggled at 1-5. The Raiders’ QB has had a solid season, but he is a one trick pony, so as goes he, so go the Raiders. Carr is passing for 260+ yards over his last three games which is down for him. He has been sacked 27 times this year and has surprisingly few TDs (17) compared to other elite Qbs. By comparison, Mahomes, very much on a down year, has thrown for less yds, but is sacked much less and has far more TDs. The Chiefs’ O line, unlike the Raiders’, has shown solid improvement in protecting their QB.

These are pass-first offenses. Vegas is 28th in rushing yards, the Chiefs 19th. For the Chiefs, Edwards-Hilaire is healthy at RB, and Mahomes is always a dangerous option. The Raiders have Jacobs, who has run for 470+ yards but averages only 3.8 yds a carry.

Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in Tds allowed. They are tough to play against, with more than 2 takeaways in each of 4 last games, and very good sack totals. Quarterbacks have been successful against the Raiders, with a 97+ QB rate against them, 26th in the league. They held WFT to 17 points, but allowed 32+ in their previous three games.

The Chiefs are heavy favorites, so a win is expected, but will they cover? Vegas is out-coached, and Mahomes is due. With no real running game it is hard to see the Raiders controlling the ball. This might not be the blow out we saw in their last meeting, but I expect the Chiefs to cover.

A pair of contenders face off in Edmonton tonight. The Oilers have lost 4 straight, giving up 4 goals a game on average, while scoring only 2 per game over the same period. Could their dynamic duo be playing too much lately? It is early in the season, but carrying a team is heavy hauling and their work load is phenomenal. The Oilers’ major problem is defense, and they face a tough and balanced team in the Hurricanes tonight. The Canes have won three straight, and have been tough to play against with the second rated defense in the league. Andersen was very sharp against the Flames last game, and Carolina is a good road team this year. The Canes are a small underdog tonight. I am looking for them to steal one this evening. Canes to win.

Kings/Cavs

I base my picks on many, many different things. Common sense is some times the best approach I've found in handicapping a contest, and that's what I'm going to use here.

The Kings are off a heart-breaking 124-123 road loss at Charlotte just last night. I think they'll struggle to find energy this evening in the second game of the B2B. Kings have also seen the total go under in eight of their last ten off a SU/ATS road loss in which they allowed 120 or more points in.

Cleveland is off a 123-106 road win at Minnesota just last night. The Cavaliers are the hottest team in the league right now, but they still only average 105.6 PPG, getting the job done on the defensive end.

With both teams having played just last night, look for a slower overall pace. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under. 

Austin Peay/North Florida

The Governors are 4-3, but just 1-2 on the road.

North Florida is 2-9 overall, but 2-0 at home.

Austin Peay is off a relatively simple 98-55 home win over Milligan (note though that the Governors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS home victory.) 

The Ospreys are off an 85-55 loss at Florida, but note that they're a near-perfect 6-1 ATS in their last seven off a SU/ATS road loss of 30 or more points.

The level of competition has to be called into question for each side. Numbers are skewed. Home floor is big here. 9* COACHES CORNER on North Florida. 

After a 5 game win streak, the Red Wings have lost two in a row.  Detroit is very streaky, facing the high flying Avs on a back to back and on the road, so I wouldn't look for a Wings win tonight.  Greiss is likely starting against Kuemper.  Neither has been particularly effective this year, with Greiss the real underachiever here.  Detroit's recent games have all gone over, as have Colorado's.  With the AVs' offense performing as well as it has against a tired Red Wings team, I would stick with the trend and take this game to go over the total. Shop around as there is some variability in this line.

Lakers/Thunder

The Lakers are 13-13 after a 108-95 loss at Memphis last night. LA has chemistry issues. It's also old. The Lakers won't be in the NBA Finals this year obviously.

The young Thunder are off a huge 110-109 road win at Toronto. I say they keep it rolling here. OKC already beat the Lakers 107-104 as 10.5-point underdogs on November 4th and I think it can do it again.

James and company have a target on their back every night. They always have to face their opponents "A" game. Look for this road weary Lakers team to once again fall below the .500 mark.

Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Thunder. 

Fatigue may be a factor for the Bruins tonight after a tough and embarrassing shootout loss against the Canucks last night.  Ullmark is expected to return in the net for the Bruins, and it is difficult to say if that is good news.  He has been very uneven this year and could be outmatched by the Oilers.  The Bruins defense can keep the score down but they struggle to put the puck in the net.  The Oilers, of course, are the reverse.  They have been on a bit of a slump of late so the odds on the Oilers at home are favorable.  Better rested than the Bruins, and no doubt motivated to get back in the win column, this is a perfect opportunity to bounce back, catching a weary and unimpressive Bruins team on the Road.  Oilers to win.

Denver/New Mexico

New Mexico is a heavy favorite. Denver has struggled this year, but I think it comes in under the radar tonight. 

The Lobos have been inconsistent. They beat New Mexico State 101-94 on the road, before then falling 78-76 to the Aggies at home in the following one.

Denver will have an opportunity here against a New Mexico side that ranks 266th in terms of defensive efficiency rankings. 

New Mexico is getting great pla from Jamal Mashburn Jr., who is avearging 21 PPG, but the Lobos are already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite.

Denver on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog.

I think the Pioneers keep this one interesting down the stretch. 10* COACHES CORNER on Denver. 

Only the Vikings could reel off 426 yards of offense and still lose. Last week, Cousins had a solid game, and he has been that way all year. He has 23 TDs against only three interceptions. He has had time to throw, and has been well protected with only 15 sack for the season. That may change against the Steelers. Pittsburgh sacked the QB 7 times last week, and leads the league in applying pressure. TJ Watt is a monster, and can be a game changer.

The Vikings, rated right behind Pittsburgh, can crash a quarterback as well. It is one of the only areas where the Viking defense excels. Where the Vikings’ 24th rated defense does not pass muster is in the red zone (25th), against the run (29th), and pass yards against (22nd).

The Vikings are a pass-first offense but they do have run options. There main man Cook is out, but Mattison filled in well last week. The Steelers’ defense has not been great against the run either, but will make life difficult for Cousins and his receivers, especially in the red zone.

This would seem a perfect opportunity for the Steelers to run the ball, and they have the man for the job. Rookie Najee Harris has become a legitimate 2 way force, but the Steelers until now choose not to exploit the run much. Roethlisberger is not the force he once was, but he has slowly improved this year. The Steelers’ O line has been more effective lately, and he has only 6 interceptions against 14 Tds. He will face pressure from the Vikings defense.

We are starting to see more of the “tough to play against” character of the Steelers and that is not good news for the Vikings. Pittsburgh has momentum on their side, and are 4-1-1 ATS lately. The Vikings are not an effective home team this year. Look for the Vikings to struggle on offense on Thursday, and Roethlisberger, in his final season, do enough to keep this one close or win.Take Pittsburgh

Dallas/Memphis

Dallas is off a 102-99 loss at home to Brooklyn just last night. The Mavs have now seen the total go under in three straight. Dallas though has seen the total fly over the number in seven of its last nine after a SU/ATS home loss in which was held to 99 or fewer points in.

The Mavericks are injured and playing the second game of the back to back, but I say it's their defense which struggles tonight, not the offense this time.

The Grizz will look to take advantage and push the pace from start to finish. 

Memphis is playing its best basketball of the season, as it's gone 5-0 SU/ATS in its last five. With the Lakers coming to town tomorrow, the Grizz will have to be careful here to not get caught looking ahead.

While each side has played to several lower-scoring games of late, the value on this total has now finally swung the other way in my opinion. 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the over. 

The Rangers are 4th in the league in defense but a good part of that has been Shesterkin's stellar play.  He is out, which will change the Rangers' goals against figures.  The AVs, with their potent offense now firing on all cylinders, score a ton, but also allow plenty.  Kuemper has been dicy, and with him out, the alternative is likely Johansson.  He has been wildly inconsistent when he has played. To make matters worse the AVs could be missing a couple of their D men.  Rangers are on a back to back, but everyone, including Ottawa, has been scoring against the AVs.  The total is a bit high, but the over is still a very strong bet.

CMU/YSU

Youngstown is a heavy favorite here, but this line is just a little TOO steep for in my reckoning.

CMU enters off a 97-70 loss to Western Illinois. Cameron Healy was a bright spot with a career-high 24 points. Kevin Miller added 15. 

Off B2B road conference victoriees, I think the Penguins get caught flat-footed here. Most recently they beat Green Bay 82-58. Tevin Olison led all scorers with 20 points. 

The Chips though are 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, while the Penguins are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Penguins are averaging only 66 PPG at home, while CMU is averaging 61.2 PPG on the road.

So grab the points here and expect a solid cover at the very least. 8* play on Central Michigan. 

South Dakota/Northern Colorado

South Dakota is 5-3 and I think it's going to give 5-5 Northern Colorado a run for its money this evening.

The Coyotes come in off a 93-37 win over Waldorf College. Where's Waldorf? Erik Oliver solved the puzzle and scored 20 points and had had three rebounds as well.

Northern Colorado is off a tight 78-75 win over Montana on Saturday, getting 18 points from Daylen Kountz.

The Bears though are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory.

South Dakota on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 90 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing.

This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points. South Dakota. 10* Game Of The Week. 

The Predators have been very poor on the road of late, and were unimpressive against the Habs last outing.  Detroit has won five straight  and has been very sharp at home.  Predators goalie Saros has been good generally but uneven, while Nedlejkovic has been solid and steady.  The Red Wings have been streaky this year.  I am banking on that winning streak not ending tonight.  Take the home underdog Red Wings to continue to win

On paper, the Patriots and Bills are close, but the edge goes to Buffalo. On the “what have you done lately” scale, the baton passes to the Patriots. Here are a few good reasons to take New England on Monday night.

1. Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. The kid can really think on his feet, rivalling top veteran QBs. How much has he improved? Last week he threw for 330 yards, with a 120+ QB rating, and in his last three weeks, he has a 79% pass completion rate. Just try and keep up with the Jones!

2. the Patriots are winning by miles ATS, and beating some worthy opponents while doing it. The Bills, 2-3 and a push over the same period, have been erratic. The pummeled a very depleted Saints team but rolled over for the Colts.

3. A huge improvement in the Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, the passing yards allowed has dropped from a seasonal average of 200 to 109 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and solid pressuring the passer. The Bills’ very good pass defense has declined slightly on average, and they do not pressure the passer as much.

4. The Patriots appear poised, confident, and ready for greater glory. I am not so sure about the Bills. They are a good but uneven team, maybe ready to be toppled. It will likely be close but take the Patriots on Monday.

Cavs/Bucs

Why is everyone continuing to sleep on the Cavaliers? Cleveland comes into this one likely as the hottest team in the league after seven straight ATS victories.

Hows does that old saying go, good teams win, but great teams cover?

The Cavs had won four straight SU, before a tight 109-108 loss at home to Utah.

I like the Cavs to respond here in the second game of the back to back. The Bucks are dealing with injury issues and are preparing for a tough four-game road swing starting in Miami on Wednesday night.

And that's signficant to note, as the Bucks are off a 124-102 home win over the Heat in their most recent action Saturday.

Look for the under the radar visiting side to keep this one interesting late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Cavaliers. 

Tonight will be and opportunity for the Flyers to score some goals.  With Kuemper injured, Johansson will start again for Colorado and he has not been sharp.  Flyers goalie Jones is on a back to back and has been very average. The AVs were embarrassed by the Senators, and have a day's rest.  Expect them to come out firing on all cylinders and do what they do best; put the puck in the net.  This game features two of the poorer defenses in the NHL, sand while the total is high, there is every likelyhood that this one will still finish over.

The Chiefs are off a bye week, rested and relatively healthy, and at home in prime time. Time for a blow out win over Denver? Maybe not. The Broncos have been solid vs a pass-first offense this year. They are 10th rated against the pass, with a good secondary, and effective at applying pressure to the QB. They do not have a dominant QB like Mahomes, but Bridgewater has been accurate and doesn’t give the ball away, with only 5 interceptions all year. The Broncos’ running game has been solid. They are down a running back, but Williams has been a real eye-opener this year and this could be his game to shine. The Chiefs’ pass defense is only 24th rated, and other than last game, they do not pressure QBs overly, so if the Broncos can establish a running game to support Bridgewater, this game could be close.

What to say about Mahomes. He was brilliant against the Raiders, and good against the Cowboys, but he will likely face more pressure from the Broncos than in either of his last two games. If he has a weakness, it is that he has thrown a good number of interceptions this year with 11 already. Unlike the Broncos, the Chiefs over all are prone to giveaways. On the plus side, the Chiefs’ defense appears to have improved this year, all the way from problematic to solid. Any success the Broncos have tonight rests on just which Chiefs defense shows up.

The Chiefs are a largish favorite, but are not particularly impressive ATS. Denver as well as KC are an improved team this year with momentum of their own. I don’t expect Denver to win, but this game may be closer than expected. Take the Broncos

Ohio State/Penn State

Ohio State is off a 71-66 upset win over No. 1 Duke on Tuesday. It came from behind after being down by 13 points at halftime. EJ Lidell had 14 points and 11 boards, while Zed Key led all scorers with 20 points.

Call it a trap, call it a letdown, call you what you will, but I think that the Buckeyes are primed for a minor letdown here.

The 4-3 Penn State Nittany Lions don't have the same luxury though after falling 63-58 to Miami on Wednesday. John Harrar had 16 points, but the Nittany Lions turned the ball over 14 times. 

Ohio State averages 74.7 PPG, and it allows 68.9. Penn State is averaging 67.3 PPG, while conceding only 64.1. 

I say Ohio State has difficulty producing the same effort for a second straight time on the road. Look for the hungrier team to keep it close, if not come out on top. 10* COACHES CORNER on Penn State.

The Seahawks beat the 49ers in early October, but much has changed since then. The 49er have what the Seahawks need, which is a running game. Seattle has averaged only 65 yards in their last three starts. Wilson is exposed, and the Seahawks’ possession time is limited. The resurgence of the 49ers’ running game coincides with the recent strong performance of Garoppolo. The 49ers, 6th rated and rising in rushing yards are averaging more than double the yards per game. Missing Samuel will be a loss on the ground and in the air, but Mitchell ran for 130+ yards on his own last week.

Wilson looked better last week but the WFT’s pass defense isn’t even on the same planet as the 49ers’. It will likely be a long game for Wilson; the Seahawks’ offensive line is allowing more than 3 sacks a game, and the 49ers’ defense take no prisoners.

Garoppolo has been effective and efficient, with very impressive stats in his last few games. He has only thrown two interceptions in 5 games, and has had good protection. The Seattle passing defense is rock bottom in yards allowed, and does not pressure well. With a strong running game, and a good offensive line, look for Garoppolo to have something of a field day. Final nail in the coffin: Seattle has been miserable at home, while the 49ers are road warriors this year and are 4-1 ATS lately.

Favorable odds are out there. Take the 49ers to win and cover.

Giants/Dolphins

With the Dolphins, it is very much “what have you done lately?”The answer is a lot; 4 wins in a row, 4-0-1 ATS, Tagovailoa hitting 80+ completion % and +100 QB rating four times in the last five games for starters. Looking through the stats, the last four games show a dramatic turnaround. The Dolphins’ run defense, 10th on average, has been much better than that recently and has been blitzing very successfully. Even their dismal running game has improved.

For the Giants, the outlook is not so rosy. Jones their QB is not likely to play. His replacement Glennon is 6-21 lifetime and has hardly played this season. Last week the Giants’ defense held the Eagles to 7 points but they were only able to score 13. Without Jones, and with an average running game (of which Jones was an active part) up against the tough Dolphins run defense, it will be hard to score points this week. The Dolphins haven’t allowed more than 17 points in five games and have faced better teams than the Giants. Look for the Dolphins to continue in their winning way and cover.

Spurs/Warriors

The Spurs are quietly playing their best basketball of the season. They've won three straight, most recently a 114-83 win at Portland. I love San Antonio here, and would recommend sprinkling a little on the moneyline as well.

Golden State bounced back with a huge 118-96 victory here last night against the Suns, revenging a loss at Phoenix a week earlier.

I say the Warriors get caught complacent here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

Note that GS is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight when playing the second game of a B2B after scoring 115 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in the first.

This is way too many points to be giving up to this much improved and confident Spurs side. I'm grabbing all these points. 8* PLAY on Spurs. 

Houston/Cincinnati.

The Cougars went 11-1 on the season, while the Bearcats enter at 12-0. With a win today, Cincinnati can become the first group of five conference program to reach the Playoff since it was started back in 2014. 

Houston averages 38.8 PPG. QB Clayton Tune was great with 3,013 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Alton McCaskill has 844 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground.

The Cougars have been stout defensively as well, allowing 19.8 PPG.

That defense will be tested like it hasn't seen all season though with the Bearcats offense that averages 39.6 PPG. Desmond Ritter has 3,000 passing yards and 27 TD's, along with 342 rushing yards and six rushing TD's. 

The Bearcats defense has also been remarkable, allowing just 15.8 PPG.

Finally note that Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Lay the points, expect a blowout. Cincinnati 10* Game of the Week. 

Arkansas Little Rock/Arkansas

I think Arkansas takes the foot off the gas in the second half here as it gets caught looking ahead to the start of its conference schedule, starting with a tough game at Okalahoma, followed by at Mississippi State.

UALR has so far beaten the teams it should, and struggled against the "better" competition. That was the case last time out, falling 86-55 at Colorado State.

But this line is inflated here now. Note that UALR is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as well after a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 55 or less points in.

This line is a little TOO big. Look for a comfortable backdoor cover from the visiting side. UALR 10* COACHES CORNER. 

The Kraken are on a bit of a roll, winning 4 of their last 6 games, and are very unpredictable as to who and when they beat. With a 29th rated defense, Seattle needs to score to win, and they now have some key injuries on offense. In the net, Grubauer has been up and down, but mostly very average this year.

The Oilers seem to have been on a roll all season, and are a scoring machine, particularly on the PP. Koskinen has been decent in the net, but very sharp in his last two games. Defense is not the Oilers’ forte; they are middle of the pack in goals against. I like to take the total in Oilers’ games, but injuries may impact on the Kraken’s ability to add much in the way of goals scored. I don’t think this is a situation or a team to expect the Kraken to steal a game against. Take the favored Oilers to win.

VMI/Portland

I think the hungry 4-4 VMI Keydets will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. 

The Portland Pilots come in complacent at 7-2 in my reckoning. 

The Keydets enter off an 88-40 blowout win over Summit. Kamdyn Curfman had 16 points. 

The Pilots have played some weak competition as well this year though, most recently a 77-68 win over Incarnate Word. Mike Meadows had 22 points and three boards in the win.

The Pilots though are a terrible 2-8 ATS in their last ten at home, while VMI is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS win in which it held its opponent to 50 or fewer points in.

Grab the points. 8* PLAYBOOK on VMI. 

76ers/Hawks

I think this one sets up well for the hungry visiting side.

Philadelphia is 11-11, while Atlanta is 12-10.

The 76ers are off a tight 88-87 loss at Boston. Philly had to play from behind the entire night, and it was just unable to get over the hump at the end. With a tough upcoming two-game road set at Charlotte, the 76ers can't afford to take the foot off the gas.

The Hawks are off a 114-111 win at Indiana to open up December. When these teams played on October 30th, the 76ers won 122-94 as 3.5 point favorites and I expect a similar final discrepancy here as well.

This is a good matchup for Joel Embiid. He was shutdown by the Celtics, but finally we can expect a monster game from the Philly big man. 

There's plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. This is going to be a dog fight.

One last big stat working in favor of the visiting side sees the 76ers having gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine off a SU road loss in which they were held to 90 or fewer points in.

Grab the points. 10* GAME OF MONTH on Philadelphia. 

The Flames are 2nd in defense, which is no surprise considering Markstrom has a .938 save % and five shutouts.  Whether Quick or Petersen, it is a  tough matchup against a Flames team that can put the puck in the net and is downright dominant on the road. The Flames have only allowed a measly 1.7 goals against in road games.  The Kings are struggling, able to beat only the lowly Senators (twice) of late.  Take the Flames to win this one handily>

Pistons/Suns

I base my picks on many different things. Being flexible with one's approach is crucial in my opinion. Here I just think that the Suns are overvalued because of their 18 game win streak. They just took out the Warriors at home here two nights ago, and Golden State was on a 17-game win streak.

The Suns ultimately could care less about their win streak. They're realistic and understand it'll come to an end at some point. That won't be tonight. I believe the Suns will win, but I expect them to take the foot off the gas down the stretch as they prepare for the rematch with the Warriors in Golden State tomorrow night.

Look for the hungry Pistons to end their road trip with a solid effort and comfortable cover. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Pistons.

A pair of teams in recovery meet in Thursday night Football. Right now there are questions around who will play, but a few things are known. Taysom Hill will be the Saints’ QB. He will likely be an improvement over Siemian, if for nothing else other than his running abilities, but he may not be completely recovered. The Saints’ pass offense has been dismal, and their run offense, without Kamara has dropped from an average of 120+ yards to 79 yards over the last three games. Kamara is still questionable. The Saints possession time has been very poor in their last games as well.

The Saints’ claim to fame is their formidable 3rd rated run offense, but you wouldn’t have know it in the two previous weeks, giving up a massive 242 and 113 yards respectively. New Orleans’ pass defense is not in the same league at 23rd ranked, which will be a bonus for Prescott. Dak seems completely recovered, and was impressive last week. This week he will have some of his usual suspects back for targets. The Cowboys’ running game has plummeted in the past weeks with a banged up Elliott continuing to play, but Pollard is healthy. The Cowboys defense is weak and was picked to pieces by Vegas last week. Their run defense on average is, well, average..

For the Saints to get anywhere against the Cowboys, their run defense will have to bounce back, and Hill will have to generate some much needed offense. Hill is the wild card here, and it would be asking a lot for him to carry the Saints offense. The Cowboys will be working hard to restore their season, and might be the healthier of the two teams. I can't see New Orleans putting enough points on the board to keep up with Prescott and that  #1 offense.  Take The Cowboys to win and cover.

Lamar/Mississippi State

Two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum end their respective non-conference parts of their schedules here.

Mississippi State is 5-1 and Lamar is 1-6. 

I think the Bulldogs come in complacent and leave the back door open in the second half. They're off an emotional 82-71 OT win over Richmond last time out, and I think they're over-priced here.

The Cardinals are coming off a loss to Texas Tech. They've taken their lumps, but they have talent and experience and while the outright win is out of the question, the stage is definitely set here for a much tighter battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Grab all those points! 8* PLAY on Lamar. 

The Golden Knights are healthier, with Stone and Pacioretty returning, and very well rested.  The Ducks are on the wrong end of a back to back, with Stolarz likely in net.  He has been sharp when he has played, but has only faced the NHL's bottom feeders, so facing the Knights might be an eye-opener.  His opponent Lehner is still not excelling, giving up a couple of goals a game.  Anaheim has better than expected offense this year, and the Knights offense has finally been rounding into form.  Neither defense is better than average.  The Total tonight is set at 5.5.  I can see this one going over easily

Rockets/Thunder

Houston has won and covered in three straight. That includes a 102-89 victory over OKC two nights ago at home. Normally I always "look" at the revenge factor, but here I don't think it matters at all.

And that's because the Rockets are still just 4-16 on the season. Houston is unquestionably playing its best basketball of the season right now and I expect it to keep the good times rolling here again. 

After six straight ATS covers, the Thunder finally stumbled in Houston last time out and I expect that trend to continue here.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has returned from injury for the Thunder, but it's not going to be enough here against this suddenly surging young Rockets team.

Grab the points though! 8* COACHES CORNER on Houston. 

Boston U/George Washington.

The 5-3 Boston Terriers are going to have their hands full with the 2-6 George Washington Colonials in my opinion.

Boston is off a tight 61-60 win over Merrimack. Overall the Terriers average 69.9 PPG, while allowing 63.6.

The Colonials are out to rebound off a 72-54 loss to a tough Missouri State team. George Washington averages 63.3 PPG, while allowing 71.4. 

Clearly, if just looking at each side's offensive and defensive numbers, the visitors would seem to be the correct call.

But that's not the case. Strength of schedule has to be taken into account here. 

I like the Colonials to defend home court and find a way to deliver in this one. 8* MID MAJOR MONEY TIME on George Washington.

Pistons/Blazers

Portland has gone 0-3 SU/ATS over its last three. I expect it to come in focussed on the task at hand in this one.

Detroit lost both games in LA, but covered in each as a big underdog.

The Pistons though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back road covers.

Portland on the other hand is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after after three straight SU/ATS road losses in a row.

The Blazers have always played better at home, and that's definitely the case again this season, as they're just 1-10 on the road and 9-1 in Portland.

Detroit is just 2-8 on the road.

Look for the determined home side to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. 10* COACHES CORNER on Portland. 

The Panthers have been a powerhouse this year, especially at home, however they are missing both Barkov and Duclair today, and have seemed a bit more vulnerable of late.  With Bobrovsky in net one would immediately think "adavantage Florida" but Samsonov has been almost unbeatable in the net this season.  Ovechkin, showing no signs of aging, has strapped the Caps to his back and skated with them, and the Capitals defense has been very solid. After an embarrassing loss to the Kraken, once might expect bounceback from the Panthers, but I think they are over-favored here.  Look for the underdog Capitals to steal this one.  Washington to win.

Montana/Oregon

Montana is pretty good, but I expect Oregon to lay the hammer down from start to finish tonight.

The Grizzlies are 4-2, most recently scoring a 74-62 win over Southern Miss on Friday. Lonnell Martin Jr. had 20 points in the victory. 

Oregon is 3-3 after back-to-back losses. Most recently the Ducks got smashed 78-49 by HOuston. Eric Williams Jr. had 13 points in the losing cause.

Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against. Montana excels on the defensive end, conceding just 60.3 PPG. Oregon isn't far behind allowing 66.5. 

The Ducks have routinely been one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but there's still lots of time to make adjustments.

Both teams also sport similar offensive numbers. 

Montana's early schedule has to be called into question here. Also note that the Grizzlies are a terrible 1-5 against the spread in their last six on the road.

When Montana faced Mississippi State this year, it conceded 86 points.

I'm laying the points here and expecting a blowout. Oregon 8* PLAYBOOK. 

It is last call for the Seahawks on Sunday, sporting a 30th and 32nd ranked offense and defense, and the Washington FT on the upswing. Wilson has not been in form since returning, but no matter how he performs on Monday, Seattle has very significant issues standing between them and a win.

The Seahawks, missing Carson, and with Collins limited, are without any real options on the run, and the FT handles the rush very well. Washington has a legitimate run game, 10th rated and improving in their last three games. The Seahawks defense has struggled against the run all season. As a backup QB, Heineke has performed much better than expected, particularly in his last two games. He has thrown for 4 TDs against 0 interceptions in those two games. Wilson is still an unknown this week, and he will face a poor but dramatically improving WFT pass defense. The same cannot be said of the Seahawks’ passing defense. They have been bad, (rated 30th) and stayed bad. Neither team protects their QB well, but Seattle really struggles; Wilson has been sacked 7 times in the two games since his return.

Wilson has worked miracles before, but the Seahawks aren’t helping his cause. This game is basically a pick’um. I am picking the Washington football team.

Magic/76ers

As with most of my O/U picks, this one is a great situational release. I don't think Philadelphia will "look past" the Magic today, especially after tow straight losses.

That includes a 121-120 OT loss here at home to the Wolves in their latest outing. This is also the final home game before a tough five-game Eastern road swing for Philly.

The Magic are in a rebuilding year. They're off a 105-92 loss at Cleveland. They've seen the total dip "under" in five straight games. Orlando though has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row.

With the home side pushing the pace like I expect from start to finish, everything does indeed point to the higher number as the correct call in this one. 10* total of the week on the over. 

Pistons/Lakers

A great 'spot' wager on the lower number here.

Detroit is out for revenge here after losing 121-116 to the Lakers at home in OT last week. The Pistons come here off a 107-97 loss here to the Clippers on Friday.

I have a hard time seeing the undermanned visiting side reaching the century makr here today either. Note that Detroit averages only 98.6 PPG.

The hungry Lakers are off a terrible 141-137 triple OT loss here to the Kings. They have been one of the best defensive teams in the league the last three years, but they've taken a step back in that departemnt this season.

But after the exhausting extra time loss last time out, we can expect the hungry home side to double down on the defensive end this evening as it looks to take advantage of this matchup.

This number his high. 10* TOTAL OF MONTH on the under. 

It hasn’t been the season that the Browns expected but they are still in the hunt. The oft-injured Browns are recovering, although Mayfield is playing injured and, apparently, angry. He has not been at his best, with only 163 passing yards average in the last 3 games, and 10 touchdowns against 27 sacks. The Browns have the best rush offense in the league with Chub and possibly Hunt, but they are up against the Ravens’ 2nd rated rush defense. The Ravens’ pass defense is not in the same league at 2nd to last, but they do like to blitz, and as seen in the sack figures, the Browns don’t protect their passer very well.

For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is back. He is the 11th ranked passer in the league, with 14 TDs against an ugly 28 sacks. He has also run for 600+ yards this year, and with the other running backs, has a rush offense that doesn’t trail the Browns by much. Weakness #2 is the Ravens’ offensive line, although the Browns do not have a habit of blitzing regularly.

The Browns defense overall is solid, but they have had some very lopsided losses this season. Teams that have handled the Browns running game have pretty well had their way with them. The Ravens' solid run defense could put them in that category.  Jackson and the Ravens have handled the Browns in the past, and are very good at home.  So the Ravens win, but do they cover?  They aren't good ATS this year, but have been against the Browns. Ravens

The Chargers and Broncos couldn’t be much more different. The Chargers have a 4th ranked pass-centered offense built around a young, explosive, if occasionally uneven QB in Herbert. The Broncos are a low scoring, low points allowed team. QB Bridgewater doesn’t throw a lot, is accurate and conservative with few interceptions. The rushing offense should figure prominently for the Broncos on Sunday if Denver has any hope of success. They have a solid ‘double threat’ pair of running backs who maybe don’t get used as much as they should. The Chargers defense is very poor vs the run, although improving somewhat in the last three games. The Broncos offensive line is injury riddled and rough at the best of times. Bridgewater has been sacked 21 times already, so the running game look even more attractive.

The run has not been a focus for the Chargers, or at least not until recently. Ekeler has developed into a solid pass and run threat, and of course Herbert can run effectively. The Chargers will have their hands full running on Sunday as the Broncos defense (last week notwithstanding) has been solid vs the run.

Where the Broncos struggle is against the pass. They are the 29th rated team defending against the pass and have a poor pass rush. This plays to the strength of the Chargers offense and will I think, be decisive in the final outcome.

The Chargers are 2 ½ point favorites, and will have just too much offense for the Broncos to match. Look for the Chargers to win and cover.