The Padres are home to the Brew crew on Saturday, after losing the opener.  San Diego's vaunted offense has been surprisingly low key to date, now 24th in Runs scored and 27th in Average.  Saturday's starter Lugo has been a good news story so far.  He hasn't started in several years but has been very sharp, going at least 6 innings and allowing just 2 runs in 2 appearances.  After a lost season last year, Peralta has more than fulfilled his earlier promise for the Brewers to date allowing just 1 run over 12 innings in his first two appearances.  Milwaukee has one of the best pens in the business at the moment, and has been hitting surprisingly well; 11th in runs scored to date, as well as a very sharp 3rd in Runs allowed.

Take the Brewers, a slight underdog, to win outright on Saturday.

I like the Royals +1.5 tonight, hosting Atlanta. 

Now it’s hardly been an inspiring start to the season for Kansas City, who comes in at just 4-9. But they are coming off an impressive 10-1 victory at Texas on Wednesday, their largest margin of victory in any game this season. The 10 runs also marked a season high.

Atlanta came into 2023 earmarked as one of the favorites to win the World Series. They’ve gotten off to a 9-4 start and lead the NL East. But I see this as a bit of a tricky spot. You’d have to go all the way back to April 5th to find the last time the Braves won a game by more than one run. All three wins against Cincinnati were of the one-run variety and before that they lost three in a row to San Diego. 

Brady Singer will start today for KC. I’d say his 4.91 ERA is misleading. In his only home start, Singer allowed just one run and two hits against Toronto. The Braves have never faced him before, not all that surprising given these two teams rarely meet. Still, it’s an edge to the pitcher. 

April 5th also marks the last time any Braves’ starter earned a victory. Charlie Morton gets the baseball tonight. He has not pitched well with a 1.936 WHIP in two starts. Being a veteran, the Royals will know what to expect from him, even if this is just Morton’s fifth appearance against them. 10* 

the Blue Jays bats are due for some big innings and Thursday could be the day.  The Tigers blew a fine start by Rodriguez in the late innings on Wednesday.  The bullpen is an issue; the Tigers' pen has an ERA of nearly 9.00 in the last week.  Both of Thursday's  projected starters bombed in their first start and improved in their second. the Jays' Bassitt was much improved.  He has been Mr. Dependable in previous seasons, and is a good bet for another solid result.  Turnbull was somewhat better in his last appearance, but missed 1 1/2 years to Tommy John surgery, so is still a work in progress.

The Jays are pretty formidable when facing a right-hander, batting nearly .300, with equivalent runs-scored.  The Tigers' offense has been slim lately with a 2.48 runs/9 average, and very poor defensive stats.  Look for the Jays to put up some significant numbers on Thursday.  Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2.

No one wants to face the Bruins in the first round, so this is still a significant game for the Panthers.  They have come down the stretch winning 6 of 7, losing that one game in OT.  

They're getting great goal-tending from back up Alex Lyon.  He has played in 7 straight games, and hasn't given up more than 2 goals in any of them.  Andersen is projected to start in goal for the Hurricanes.  He has bee up and down in his last 8 starts.  The Canes are just 1-3 lately and haven't fared well against the Panthers when playing in Fla.  Carolina is the better defensive team, but it is the Panthers who have been keeping goals against down.  They haven't given up more than 2 in any of their last 8 games.  The Panthers have a very solid edge on offense.

I like the Panthers' chances on Thursday.  It is a more meaningful game and they are the much hotter team.  Take Florida to win outright. 10*

Since the inception of the play-in format, Unders have gone 9-3 in these games including a perfect 6-0 last year. But this O/U looks far too low. 

Perhaps oddsmakers are fixated on the fact that all three of the regular season matchups between the Raptors and Bulls stayed Under the total. There were 217, 208 and 202 total points scored in those three games. As a result, we’ve got a far lower total here than any of those previous three matchups.

Bulls’ games averaged 224.7 PPG this year. Raptors’ games averaged 224.1 PPG. Going by those averages, there’s clear value here on the Over. 

I looked through every Chicago result this season and this would be the lowest O/U for any game all season. The only two lower than 219.5 were both against Miami, who is the lowest scoring team in all of the NBA.  

Toronto has had four games this year with lower totals. Three of them were in October. The last one was two days before Christmas, vs. Cleveland, and that game went Over with 225 total pts scored. 10*

There is just one meaningful NHL game today, with the depleted Canadiens facing a teetering NY Islanders side.  This is critical mass for the Isles, who inexplicably lost to a struggling Capitals side on Monday.  The Habs are 3-7, and have been outscored heavily in those losses.  They are a very poor road team and have a shockingly long injury list.  Montreal goalie Montembeault allowed seven goals in his last start.  Isles' stellar net-minder Sorokin had one of his worst starts ever in the Capitals' game allowing three goal early.  Expect him to bounce back today; he was exceptional in his three previous starts.

This is a season-defining game for the Islanders and I believe they will respond.  They crushed the opposition in their two games previous to the Washington debacle.  They are a very good home team with solid defense and have been overachieving on offense in their wins.  Take the Islanders on the puck line to day at  -1 1/2.

The 5-1 Cubs have been playing well especially on offense, where they are 2nd in BA and 7th in OPS over the last week.  Wednesday's starter Stroman is 2-0 to start, with a pair of 6 inning starts, giving up 0 runs on just 5 hits.  He was also very good in the preseason. Seattle's starter Gilbert has also been steady.  He does give up more than his share of hits and lasted just 4 innings in his last appearance.  While they scored 9 runs in a losing cause, the M's offense has been  generally poor this season. The Cubs are looking for the Seattle sweep, out-hitting the Mariners in game two,  and out-pitching them is game one.  I like their chances for a win on Wednesday.  Take the Cubs to bring out the brooms.

The 5-0 Kraken, benefiting from an easy schedule down the stretch, haven't faced a top team in more than a week, since they lost to the Kings.  They are in a back to back situation against a tough Knights team and have now confirmed at least a wild card spot.  Their goal-tending, a weak spot all season, is in flux tonight.

Vegas should take this game seriously.  They are in first place in their division, but some mixed play has the Oilers nipping at their heels.  They are better-rested and have a fine past record against the Kraken.  Broissoit has looked sharp in net lately, so the goalie advantage goes to Vegas.  Call this a pre-playoff game for both teams, with the better-rested Golden Knights coming out on top.

I can't resist this one.  St Louis hasn't earned these odds.  Rockies starter Freeman has been as hot as anyone to start the season, with two six inning appearances and zero runs given up.  One of those games was at Coors Field.  Cards' starter Mikolas has not been good at all so far.  He has been hit very hard, giving up a run an inning to date.  This doesn't translate well to a start in Colorado.   The Rockies are hitting well for average and have won two straight games.  Bullpen? let's hope they don't need it too much.  The Cardinals are just 1-6 and lost to the Rockies on Monday.  They are projected to be a much better team than Colorado, but what you expect isn't always what you get.  Take the Rockies on the Run line, at +1 1/2.

The Heat didn’t have a great regular season by any means, but I trust them far more than the defensively inept Hawks this time of year. Miami closed on a 4-1 SU/ATS run to earn home court advantage for this play-in matchup, which will determine the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. 

I have to acknowledge the fact the Heat were not a good team to bet on in the regular season, especially when favored. But neither was Atlanta, who comes in at 35-45 ATS overall and 17-24 ATS on the road. 

The Hawks allow 118.1 points per game, tied for fifth most in the league. Only Detroit, Indiana, Houston and San Antonio allowed more. This is going to be a problem tonight. 

In three games vs the Heat this year, Atlanta allowed 130, 117 and 113 points. They’ve lost 8 of 9 here in Miami and are only 3-6 ATAS in those games.

Expect Jimmy Butler to be the “X-factor” here. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in March, plus he always seems to step his game up in the playoffs. As a team, the Heat saw their offensive efficiency jump tremendously down the stretch and they’ve averaged 121.4 points/game since April 1. Lay it here. 10* 

The Mariners have some fine starters, but Castillo has to be the ace.  He's a tough left-hander off a great season with a pair of overpowering scoreless starts to date. The Ms have not shone to start the season but have been fine in Castillo's starts.  Cubs starter Smiyly struggled at the tail-end of preseason, and very much so in his first start.  He will bounce back at some point, but I don't think he'll compare well to Seattle's ace on Monday.

The Mariners' pen is expected to be one of the best this season.  They have been better than average so far, and shine in comparison to Cub's pen (5.02 to date).  The Cubs have the edge on offense at the moment, but it will be tough to generate runs against the Seattle pitching staff.  I have faith in the M's bats this season.  Take the Mariners to win on Monday.

The Jets, on the cusp of a wild card spot, have won four of five games. With both offense and defense firing in their last two games, they've scored twelve goals and allowed just three, against better teams than Monday's opponent. They are well-rested and in an absolute must-win situation.

The Sharks have surprised some teams lately, but other than the PK, this is a pretty pedestrian team running out the season on the road. Kahkonen the Sharks' likely goalie, was pulled from his last game, allowing 4 goals in under 20 shots.

Looking at the Jets' schedule this is their only "easy" game left.  Look for all-out effort from a good defensive team with a top net-minder.  Take Winnipeg on the puck line on Monday.

This is one of the more meaningful games on the NBA slate Sunday. We know both New Orleans and Minnesota will be in the postseason, but it’s just a matter of seeding at this point. New Orleans can finish anywhere between 5th and 9th, which is a huge range of outcomes, while Minnesota will be either 8th or 9th.

Finishing 8th instead of 9th has its advantages as that would be the T’wolves would need to win just once, rather than twice, in the play-in tournament. 

New Orleans will also be motivated, especially by the prospect of avoiding the play-in altogether. But the Pelicans are just 15-25 SU on the road and I just don’t trust them as a small underdog in this spot. Earlier this season, these teams split a pair of games in New Orleans. Minnesota won the more recent game 111-102 after losing the first meeting by just a single point.

Yes, the Timberwolves played yesterday. But no starter exceeded 30 minutes and they put up a season-high 151 points on lowly San Antonio. 

New Orleans has also been pretty bad against teams with winning records. They are just 15-28 SU and 15-27-1 ATS.  Expect Minnesota, at home, to step up in the biggest game of the year.  10*

The Rays look pretty invincible, especially with Springs going a full seven innings yesterday, giving most of the pen the day off.  While they have yet to face tough competition, they are still 7-0  with starters and relievers under 2.50 ERA (first in the league) and tops also in runs/9, OPS, and HRs.  It's Rasmussen on Sunday.  He allowed 0 runs on 2 hits in his first start, and was very good in the preseason.  He'll be up against Kaprielian, who bombed in his first start, allowing a run an inning.  He is a better pitcher than he showed in game one, but won't get much support from a struggling A's offense, ranked in the high twenties in most of the league's offense categories.

It'll be closer than yesterday, but the Rays will still come out on top.  Take Tampa Bay on the run line at - 1 1/2.

Two teams just playing out the string on Sunday as the Rockets are guaranteed to finish with a bottom three record in the league while the Wizards have also been eliminated from playoff contention for some time now.

Maybe the only thing more surprising than seeing the Rockets favored here is the fact they’ve actually been road favorites three times previous to this. They are 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in those games. One of those was their last game, a 112-109 victory over Charlotte where they did not cover as 4.5-point chalk. Houston comes in having won their last two games, but I could never lay points on the road with them as they’re just 12-25 ATS away from home this season.

But I’m not in a rush to back the Wizards either. They too are off a win, 114-108 over Miami as 5-point underdogs, but haven’t won consecutive games in more than a month. Four starters and five rotation players missed the Miami game for Washington and they’ll be short handed again here. 

I just can’t imagine there will be much defense played in this game. Both teams are already in the bottom 10 defensively with Houston having the second worst defensive rating in the league. 

The Over has hit in six straight Wizards’ games, three of which saw more than 240 total points scored. The Over is also 7-2 in the Rockets’ last nine road games. 10*

It is situation critical for the Panthers and they are without their #1 net minder Bobrovsky.  The good news is that Lyon has been filling in more than adequately, with a .961 save % in five straight games.  The Panthers aren't the best road team this season, but this game is a must-win, and the Panthers have been jumping all over weaker teams lately.

It is hard to think of the Capitals as a "weaker" team, but they are 3-7 lately and giving up buckets of goals, over 4.5 a game on average over nine games.  Washington does have their top netminder in goal, but he has given up fourteen goals in his last three starts.  Missing Oshi today, the Caps are going nowhere but the golf course this season.  Look for a solid effort from the Panthers, and a big road win.

The Yankees lost to the Orioles in a close game on Friday.  The tables may be turned if Yankees starter Brito continues as he did in spring training and in his first start.  The kid has shown excellent control, walking no one in the preseason and just 1 batter in his first start.  He gave up 0 runs on just 2 hits over 5 innings.  He'll face Irwin who who had a rocky first start and gave up more than his share of hits in his last 2 preseason starts.  The Yankees have put up some big numbers against Irwin in the past.  New York is getting much better results from their bullpen than the Orioles.  They Yankees are hitting  well for average but not yet for power.  The O's are scoring runs at a good clip but have been allowing almost as many.

Look for Brito to continue his fine pitching and the Yankees to take it to Irwin and the Orioles pen.  Yankees to win.

I cashed with the Clippers earlier in the week as they beat the Lakers 125-118, a game which the Clips actually closed as a 1-point underdog (after opening -3.5) due to LeBron James and Anthony Davis both deciding to suit up for the other side. 

The Clippers still need wins, however. We now know that they’ll be in the playoffs, but it remains unclear if they’ll be a top six seed or forced to be in the play-in tournament. By winning these last two games (they close Sunday @ Phoenix), they’d guarantee themselves a top six spot (can finish as high as fifth). 

Clearly, the Clippers should have no problem winning at home Saturday against an unmotivated Portland team that has lost 14 of its last 16 games. The Blazers have been surprisingly competitive on their current road trip, but four of their last seven losses overall have been by 24 or more points.

The Clips won 117-102 at Portland last month when the Blazers were far healthier. As of press time, the injury list for Portland contains 14 names, Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons among them. 

John Butler, Jeenathan Williams, Drew Eubanks, Skylar Mays and Trendon Watford was Portland’s starting five on Thursday. "These guys don't even know each other, to be honest with you," said coach Chauncey Billups. Sounds bad. 10* 

The Rockies have started better than the Nationals, and they beat them in the first game of the series in a tight 1-0 match-up.  Neither offense is up to much so far; it is rare to have a single run at anytime in a Coors Field game.  Rockies' pitcher Urena didn't pitch well in Spring Training, giving up a run an inning in his last three preseason starts.  He was even worse against the Padres, allowing 4 runs in 2+ innings.  Nats' starter , promising young left-hander MacKenzie Gore finished spring on a tear, and started the new season in the same way, pitching into the 6th, striking out 6, and allowing just a single run.  Against the Braves' bats, so no mean feat.  The Nationals have some decent arms in the pen who are pitching well in the early season.

Wins are going to be few and far between, so Washington better take advantage of Gore's starts when they come.  I like the underdog's chances on Friday, but they don't hit very well.  I expect Washington will at least keep this one close.  Take the Nationals on the run line at +1 1/2.

Milwaukee has already clinched the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference, so their work is done for the regular season. Memphis still needs one more win to clinch the 2-seed in the Western Conference, so I’ll bet accordingly here as the Bucks figure to rest most, if not all, of their key players.

Despite resting some key players, including Ja Morant, the Grizzlies took New Orleans to overtime the other night, eventually losing 138-131. Jaren Jackson had 40 points. Morant, Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman are NOT on the injury list for tonight, so expect the Grizz to be at closer to full strength.

Back in December, Memphis destroyed Milwaukee 142-101. 

When they are an underdog, the Bucks are 4-11 SU, 4-10-1 ATS this season. They’ve lost those games by an average of more than 10 points.

This boils down to simple motivation. Memphis wants to win. Milwaukee doesn’t care. Yes, the line is inflated, but that shouldn’t matter with the lineup the Bucks are likely to trot out tonight. 8*

Neither of these teams are going to the playoffs. So with it being the second to last game of the season, expect little to no defense to be played as 34-46 Pacers host the 16-64 Pistons. 

Detroit is just straight up tanking at this point as they have just ONE win since the All-Star Break. That came against Indiana 117-97, back on March 13th. That’s tied for the Pistons’ best offensive output since the Break. It was also the second fewest points they’ve allowed since the ASB. But considering they’ve let their last three opponents all shoot 51% or better from the floor, that defensive effort isn’t likely to be repeated tonight.

Coming into the season, Indiana was thought to be perhaps the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They surprised early, becoming the first team to go Over their season win total. But it’s shaping up to be a rocky finish with just one win over the last seven games.

The Pacers’ last game was a 138-129 final. They lost to the Knicks. Four times in the last six games, Indiana has scored more than 120 points. But the bad news is they’ve also allowed 127 or more four times in that stretch.

Detroit’s last four games have all gone Over. Again, there will be no defense played in this game. 10*

This is one of the few significant games today; significant for the Kraken, that is, who are still in a fight for a wild card spot. After eight straight losses, the Coyotes seem to have visions of Bedard and the golf green.  They lost their home game 8-1 to the Kraken, in a rink where they have been highly competitive this year.  They have been pretty dismal on the road this season..  This is an absolute must win for Seattle and not just for their  playoff position.  They have had real trouble stringing together wins, and a victory tonight would make it three straight.  They still have one of the league's best offenses, and Vejmelka, who has held Arizona in so many games this year,  has struggled of late.  Take the Kraken to go all in tonight.  Seattle to win on the puck line at -1 1/2.

Portland comes in at 33-46 on the year while San Antonio (20-59) is already guaranteed a bottom three record in the league. So the teams are just playing for pride in what is seemingly an “unattractive” matchup on Thursday’s NBA slate. Note this game is not being played in San Antonio, but rather in Austin at the Moody Center, which is the home of the Texas Longhorns.

However, despite the lack of stakes and true home court advantage, the Spurs are the play here. Portland comes into this game with one of the more absurd injury reports you’ll ever see. Damian Lillard has already been shut down for the season. Three other starters (Grant, Nurkic, Simons) all missed Tuesday’s loss to the Grizzlies. Shaedon Sharpe, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of the last eight games, is listed as questionable for tonight.

San Antonio also has a lengthy injury list. But I still see them winning this game with room to spare. Going back to March 10th, they actually have double the number of wins (4) compared to the Blazers (2). 

The Spurs just played three of the top four teams in the West, all on the road, so those results really have no bearing on my read here. (It should be noted they did win at Sacramento as 16-point underdogs though). 

This will be just the third time all year that the Spurs come in as the favorite. They are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two instances, winning those games by an average of 15 points/game. 10* 

The Braves, already 5-1, have started with a bang.  All five wins were on the road.  The Padres have been just average at 3-3. Padres' starter Snell was pretty average in spring training, and while he struck out nine batters, he allowed three runs on six hits in just four+ innings in his first appearance. Young Braves' starter, Strider, wowed 'em in the spring and in his first start.  He also struck out nine, but allowed zero runs on three hits over six innings.  Atlanta's bullpen has also come out of the gate very quickly.

Both these teams have top-ranked offenses, but again, it is the Braves who have started the stronger.  Thursday's game will be the Braves' home opener, and I really like Atlanta's chances.  Take the Braves to win outright.

This would appear to be a tremendous spot to hammer the Clippers, who have been off for three days while the Lakers are coming off an overtime win last night. While not a true road game for the Lakers, they did just play four road games in the last six days and may have little in the tank here.

With a 1:43 left to go in regulation last night, the Lakers appeared poised to be well on their way to a fourth straight win. They were up 10, but shockingly fell apart down the stretch against a Jazz team that was without three starters. Eventually, the Lakers got it done, winning 135-133 thanks to LeBron James. But those extra five minutes of action were totally needless and could end up costing them big time tonight.

Furthermore, you’ve got to consider that the Clippers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 against the spread in the previous 10 meetings with the Lakers.

Off the three-day break, the Clippers should come out angry as they’ve lost two straight games. They are now tied with the Lakers for the coveted sixth seed in the Western Conference. Obviously, both teams want to finish in the top six so that they don’t have to do the play-in tournament. 

The Clippers are 4-1 SU/ATS playing with three or more days rest this season. I can’t believe this spread is so low, considering how advantageous the situation seems to be for the “home team.” Lay it. 10* 

After four straight losses, the Lightning finally got their act together and played the way they are capable of, winning 3 straight.  Not just winning; they have outscored the competition 14-2.  They will face the Rangers on 3 days rest.

The 8-2 Rangers are also well rested, and are playing at home tonight.  The under dominates these two teams' latest action, 4 straight for Tampa, 2 of 3 for the Rangers, and 7-0 when these two teams meet. The Rangers have the fourth best goals-against avg. and Shesterkin in net.  He has a .946 save % over his last seven games. Not to be outdone, the Lightning have Vasilevskiy at the top of his form, with 2 shutouts and a scorching .978 save % in his last four starts.

This is essentially an early play-off game.  Look for a continued tight checking, low-scoring affair, and take the total to go under.

The Sox were absolutely crushed by the Giants on Monday, but they did split their first series with Houston and have their ace on the mound.  Cease was stellar last year, and started the same way in Game !, pitching into the 7th and giving up just 1 run on 2 hits.  Giants' starter Logan Webb struck out 12 in his first game, but also allowed 4 runs and 2 home runs.  The Giants put up 12 runs last time out, but they have already been shut out twice already this year.  The Sox have some very hot bats at the moment.

Take the White Sox to bounce back at home on Wednesday.

The Sharks have won three straight games, including wins against two play-off bound teams.  Equally surprising, they have also scored 23 goals in their last 6 games. Not surprising then, that the over is 5-1 in the Sharks last six games. The Avs, playing in San Jose on Tuesday, have won five straight road games, scoring 21 goals.  They have an exemplary record against the Sharks, with the over figuring in 14 of 19 meetings.  Kahkonen  is off a rare win, but has allowed at least four and as high as eight goals in recent appearances.  This is still a meaningful game for the Avs, but it appears San Jose still has it's heart in it while playing down the stretch.  Look for another high scoring game and take the over.

Seattle pulled out a 3-0 win over Cleveland on Opening Day but hasn’t won since, dropping four straight including one to the Angels here last night, by a score of 7-3. But given how well Luis Castillo pitched on Opening Day for the Mariners, it’s an easy decision to back them tonight.

Castillo gave the M’s six shutout innings of one-hit ball with six strikeouts and zero walks. In his previous two starts against the Angels, Castillo is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA. 

The Angels won’t have Anthony Rendon in the lineup again tonight. (He’s suspended). While it didn’t matter yesterday and the Halos have scored 26 runs in their last three victories, look for the offense to slow down here against Seattle’s top pitcher.

The Mariners’ lineup should get going against Jose Suarez, who is 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 11 previous starts against them. Suarez was just 8-8 with a 3.96 ERA last season.

The Guardians scored 3 times as many runs in one game as the A's have in all 3 of theirs to date.  Monday's starter Kaprielian has had a solid spring, but you need some offense to win games.  Plesac was better than average in March, and the Guardians have that fine bullpen in support.  The Guardians beat up on a very good Mariners pitching staff in their first series, and have more pop in their bats then they are credited for.  Certainly a lot more than the A's.  Take the Guardians to win this game outright. 7 stars.

UConn is a heavy favorite to cut down the nets Monday. They may very well end up winning, but this is too many points to lay to a very good San Diego State. It’s a bigger number than the UConn-Miami game and I have San Diego State rated higher than Miami.

NCAA Title Game favorites of eight points or higher are just 2-5 ATS since 1970. We’re not quite there yet, but it’s something that I wanted to note. 

Now I’m fully aware that UConn has won its five previous Tournament games by an average 20.6 points/game while beating the spread by more than 15 points per game. But we also need to salute what San Diego State has done. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the Tournament and have won nine games in a row overall. 

Both teams play outstanding defense and neither plays particularly fast. While the respective Final Four opponents looked to speed them up, no one is looking to play fast here. UConn is 214th in adjusted tempo while San Diego State is 270th. 

Don’t consider this an endorsement of the Under, but I certainly don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game. Points will be at a premium, thus taking the underdog is the way to go here. San Diego State has only ONE double digit loss all year and it was to Arizona back in November. 10* 

The Golden Knights play a very tight brand of hockey on the road, essentially play-off hockey. They have an exceptional road record. They beat up on the Wild last time out, holding Minnesota to a single goal. The Wild are not a highly productive offense, especially with Kaprisov still out.  Minnesota gets by on solid defense and excellent goal-tending, especially from Gustavsson, who should be in net on Monday.  He has been exceptional lately. Both teams are in first in their respective divisions, but have no breathing room.  Look for a pre-playoff type of game, and take the total to go under.

On a four-game win streak, Phoenix seems to have solidified itself as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are fully healthy now with Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton back in the lineup. Sunday they head to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in desperate need of a win.

OKC is still holding onto that last spot for the play-in tournament, but it’s been a poor stretch with the team just 2-4 SU/0-5-1 ATS over its last six games. Even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returning Friday, they suffered a head-scratching 121-117 defeat at Indiana as 5.5-point favorites.

Going just 1-2 SU against the three worst teams in the Eastern Conference (Charlotte, Detroit, Indiana) isn’t a great sign, but I like the Thunder to bounce back here. They’ve got more to play for and are now back in their more comfortable role of underdog (31-19 ATS when taking points this season). 

Phoenix is just 16-23 SU on the road. They lost their only previous visit of the season to OKC, just last month, although it should be pointed out they were playing shorthanded at the time. 

Keep in mind that the Thunder didn’t have SGA in the two games prior to losing to Indiana. Take the points here. 10*

Dallas is just 9-14 SU since the Kyrie Irving trade and in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. That would be quite the embarrassment. Atlanta may be just 9-9 SU since firing Nate McMillian, but their postseason prospects look a lot more favorable at this point. They are 8th in the East with a four-game cushion. 

This is the second game of a back to back for the Mavericks and the end of a five-game road trip. They lost yesterday in Miami, 129-122 as a 1-point underdog, despite shooting 61% from the floor. 

The Hawks are also coming off a loss, 124-107 in Brooklyn. They didn’t shoot well (42.9%) but for a fourth consecutive game they allowed the opponent to shoot better than 50%. 

You can always expect a high total when the Hawks are involved, but each of their last three games have actually stayed Under the closing number. This despite 231 or more total points being scored in all three contests. The Under is 6-2 their last eight games as well. It’s another high total here. 

Even with Atlanta's defensive struggles, the Mavs aren’t about to shoot the ball as well as they did yesterday. Also, Dallas is a team that likes to shoot a lot of threes. But the weakness of the Hawks’ defense is defending 2-point attempts. I won’t call for this to be a low-scoring game, but it will stay Under. 10* 

The Senators are still not eliminated from a wild card spot, and have won four of seven games.  The Blue Jackets are 3-7 and have now lost four straight.  Even worse, they have also lost Merzlikens, and have called up depth goalie Gillies from the AHL.  While both these teams were shut out yesterday, Columbus lost by a full seven goals. Both teams have lengthy injury lists, but Columbus is missing both Laine and a full five defensemen.  The Jackets are a wretched 3-12 when playing on back to back days.  The Senators are  6-5 in the same situation and will have their starting goalie Talbot back in net.

The Sens are 4-1 in recent games vs Columbus.  I expect it will be 5-1 after Sunday.  Take the Senators to win.

These two teams have played 2 very high scoring games. Pitches' nightmares.  While neither bullpen has performed well, I am looking for Irwin, off a decent spring, to give the Orioles a better start on Sunday.  Boston starter Houck has had an absolutely brutal spring, and I doubt he'll have all problems solved yet.  Irwin gives a veteran presence to a very young team.  Look for Baltimore, an underdog, but who were very good at home last year, to win this one.

LA has inexplicably lost its scoring touch in the last couple of games and have now lost two straight while continuing to get the job done defensively.  The Kracken are not known for defense or goal tending, and while off a win, haven't been able to win two straight in some time.  Korpisalo has been very steady in the net for LA, while Grubauer has really struggled in three straight.  It has been the road team that usually comes out on top when these two teams meet.  Look for the Kings to right the ship today and steal this one on the road.

Bet against this Miami team at your own peril. The Hurricanes are 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season, winning five of those games outright. They come into the Final Four fresh off upsets of Indiana, Houston and Texas. 

It’s not just this season either. Under Larranaga, Miami is 33-12 ATS as a dog the last three seasons and 20-5 ATS since the start of last season

UConn seems to be the popular choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but can they sustain their recent level of play? Probably not! The Huskies have made it look easy so far, winning their first four tournament games by a combined 90 points.

But Miami has put up 85, 89 and 88 points the last three games, two of those against top 10 defenses in the country. They are doing so without a high volume of threes, which makes the scoring even more impressive. 

With its incredible stable of guards, Miami can beat anyone on any given night. I’ll gladly take the points with the best underdog team in the country the L3 seasons. They’ve faced the tougher competition in this Tournament and since January 11th, they’ve lost only ONE game by more than three points. That was in the ACC Tournament against Duke, a game where they lost their big man Norchad Omier in a matter of seconds. Take the points. 10* 

The Padres have started the season at 0-2 against a much weaker Rockies team, but the losing ends today. Colorado's starter Urena's spring training began well but has gone downhill since.  He has given up a run an inning and 5 home runs in his last three starts.  Urena has never beaten the Padres.  Padres' hurler Wacha is off an excellent 2022 and a decent spring. The Rockies have never won against Wacha. San Diego's bull pen should have the edge on Colorado.  The Rockies' bull pen does not project well this season, while the Padres' relievers are expected to be a plus.
The is a mighty Padres' offense, against a much weaker Rockies team who are notoriously poor on the road.  Take the Padres on the run line as they get back on track today.

The last 12 San Diego State games have all stayed Under the total. But I’m going to say it’s “lucky #13” for Over bettors Saturday night against Florida Atlantic in the first of two national semifinals in the Final Four. 

Incredibly, going back to the second half of the second round game vs. Furman, San Diego State opponents have combined to miss 45 of their last 51 3PA. The Aztecs are certainly very sound defensively, but there’s no way opponents should be missing at that kind of rate over such a sustained period. 

Florida Atlantic rediscovered the three-point shot against Kansas State in the Elite 8, making 9 of 23 attempts. That’s not lights out shooting by any means, but it’s more made threes in one game than the last two SDSU opponents have made. I truly believe that FAU is going to do a better job here than previous SDSU opponents.

FAU averages 78 points/game. Let’s also not forget San Diego State topped 70 in the second round and Sweet 16. 

In the end, this boils down to my belief San Diego State can’t continue getting away with their opponents shooting so poorly from three. That may sound like an an endorsement of the Owls to cash, but I also expect San Diego State to improve offensively from the Creighton game (where they shot 38% overall, were 3 of 13 from three and attempted only six free throws).  10*

The Bruins seem to dictate the flow of the games they play, and five of their last six games have gone under the total.  With the best defense and PK in the league, no one seems to score often against the Bruins, and Boston hasn't relied on  a ton of offense for their recent wins,  Swayman will likely be in net today.  He has had 2 shutouts, and a .962 save % in his last 4 games. Jarry is much improved of late, off a  shutout win of his own.  The under is a solid 5-1 when the Bruins and Penguins meet up in Pittsburgh.  With a hefty total of 6 1/2 available, I believe this game will also go under the total.

The Astros lost their home opener yesterday, so will be all in to right the ship today. It is Lynn vs Javier, two very good pitchers with decent springs.  I'm wagering on Javier coming out on top.  His last star tin spring training was a 4 hit 5+ inning shutout.  This will be his year, and I think he will get it right, starting now.  Not to discount Lynn, but the Astros, are a formidable opponent, looking to repeat.  With superior pen and offense, they will bounce back today. 7 stars!

This is a likely first round playoff series as the 4th place Cavs (48-29) take on the 5th place Knicks (44-33). New York has won two of the three prior meetings, but all of those were at least two months ago. 

Cleveland has been an excellent home team all season (30-8 SU) not to mention they own the league’s second best overall point differential this season (trailing only Boston). They are #1 in defensive efficiency as well. It would be hard to argue the Cavs aren’t the favorite to win a first round series, against the Knicks or anyone outside the current top three in the East. 

The Knicks are just 5-6 SU/ATS over their previous 11 games, though they have won the last two, beating Houston and Miami. But both of those victories came at home. They’ve lost two in a row on the road, falling at Miami and Orlando.

The Cavs have already clinched a playoff berth and would lock up a top four seed with a win tonight. The Knicks would clinch a playoff spot with a win here, but unfortunately for them, they’ll be without Julius Randle. That is a significant loss as Randle is averaging 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game

Cleveland may be without some key pieces as well (Allen, Okoro), but being at home and wanting to wash away the bad taste of Wednesday’s loss in Atlanta should have them properly motivated in this one. The Cavs are 10-4-1 ATS L15 off a SU loss. 10* 

Charlotte has been a pesky spoiler over the last week, winning three times as an underdog of nine or more points. After beating Dallas twice, the Hornets put a dent in Oklahoma City’s playoff aspirations with a 137-134 win on Tuesday. 

Now they face the 10th place team in their own conference, Chicago, who has lost two in a row. The Bulls are still likely going to make the play-in tournament, but they haven’t helped themselves lately by allowing the Clippers and Lakers to both shoot over 50% from the floor. The Clippers shot it at a 59% clip against them on Monday.

I expect this to be another high-scoring contest. The Bulls have shot 51% or better in four straight, so offense hasn’t been the issue. They are averaging 116 points/game in that stretch. The team’s offensive rating has been way up this month.

Charlotte has been short-handed but that hasn’t seemed to matter. P.J. Washington had a career 43 points against OKC and the team shot 55% overall including 14 made threes. 

All three prior meetings between the teams this season have stayed Under. But we’re getting a great number here, IMO. Consider that the closing O/U lines for the last two meetings were 235 and 237. 10*

We’ve got two teams on Under runs with Denver 6-0 to the Under in its last six games and New Orleans 17-7 Under in its last 24. But I think this number is far too low for a couple of teams that have both been shooting very well of late. 

Led by Nikola Jokic, Denver is one of the best offensive teams in the league. They’ve shot 50% or better from the floor in each of the last eight games. This really isn’t all that surprising considering they lead the league in FG% at 50.9. They are on the only team in the NBA above 50%. 

At home, the Nuggets are averaging 120.7 points/game, basically an increase of eight points/game over what they average on the road. Four of the last six games have come on the road. Expect the Nuggets to have success here offensively against a Pelicans team whose recent defensive output is slightly misleading. 

While New Orleans has allowed an average of just 100.0 points over its last five games, that includes facing San Antonio, Charlotte and Portland. The Pelicans just allowed 120 at Golden State the other night. 

I think we’ll see New Orleans shoot the three better than they have in either of the two previous matchups with Denver. The Over has hit in 7 of the Nuggets’ last 10 at home. 10* 

I like UAB to win the NIT. The Blazers’ only loss in their last 13 games came to FAU in the C-USA Tourney Final and they (UAB) were actually favored over a team that’s now in the Final 4 of the “Big Dance.” 

With North Texas also involved here, it’s an all Conference USA Final. In addition to FAU’s run, Charlotte has already won the CBI, so what an impressive run by this league in March. This is the fourth meeting between North Texas & UAB this season. North Texas won both in the regular season, but UAB got revenge in the conference tournament with a 76-69 win as 1-point favorites. 

North Texas needed a bit of a miracle to get by Wisconsin in its last game. The Badgers didn’t score over the game’s final nine minutes. Tip your cap to the Mean Green defense, but this is a team that needed OT to get by Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals as well. 

I’m just not sure North Texas can generate enough offense here. They’ve barely won the last two games, despite giving up an average of 54.5 points/game in regulation. Wisconsin did score 41 against them in the first half Tuesday. UAB averages 81.3 points/game, which is top 10 in the country.

Plus the potential absence of big man Abou Ousmane (team leader in rebounds and blocks) looms large for North Texas. Lay the points. 10*

The 7-3 Bruins are off a rare loss, never a good sign for the next opposing team. Columbus has been giving up vast numbers of goals, 38 in their last 6 games alone.  The Columbus goal tending situation is unclear tonight, but it will likely be Swayman  in net for the Bruins.  He has "just" a pair of shutouts in his last four games.  With the best defense and PK in the business, the Bruins allow very few goals.  They don't usually win big, but today could be an exception. That loss in their last game should keep them focused against a very weak opponent.  Columbus also has Laine and four defensemen out today. Take the Bruins on the puck line today at -1 1/2.

The Braves' starter Max Fried carried last year's success in to spring training and hasn't given up a run in the preseason.  Corbin, off two lost years, has been better in the spring, but we will have to see how that translates in seasonal play.  The Braves are first in batting through spring training, while the Nationals are 28th.  Washington made very few significant changes in the off season, and are facing likely the top team in the NL.  Anything can happen in baseball, but it is almost certain that the Braves will  win big.  Take Atlanta on the run line at -1 1/2. 7 stars!

Barring an unforeseen setback, Kevin Durant is set to make his return to the Suns lineup on Wednesday. The team has gone 4-6 SU with Durant out of the lineup, but things have been trending up with two straight wins. I was on the Suns (-6.5) Monday as they beat the Jazz 117-103 on the road. Deandre Ayton returned to the lineup for that game and scored 14 points. So this team is finally at full strength.

Phoenix is 4th in the West right now with a 40-35 record. Lurking not far behind in 6th is Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 39-37 following four straight wins, all of those coming by six points or less. 

Karl-Anthony Towns sat out the T’wolves’ 119-115 win at Sacramento Monday due to injury management. But even with his impending return for this game, I don’t like the spot for the visitors. It will be their third road game in four nights and some of these recent victories, such as the one at Golden State Sunday were a little fortunate. 

Minnesota still has a negative scoring differential this year. That’s a sign that they are unlikely to hold onto a top six spot. Four teams below them in the standings have better YTD point differentials. 

Having Durant, Ayton, Devin Booker and Chris Paul all in the starting lineup makes Phoenix one of the top teams in the league. Though this number has already been steamed up, I like the Suns minus the points. They’ve averaged 120 points over the last five games and should have their way with a Minnesota defense that is allowing 121.7 points over its last six games. 10*

The 6-4 Islanders have stepped up their play lately and have been finding the back of the net regularly, but have not been defending to their norm.  The Capitals are still a scoring threat, but are giving up goals at an alarming rate, 4+ GA  on average in their last 8 games.  Seven of ten of the Isles' games and a full nine of ten Caps' games have  gone over today's total.  Sorokin was great in his last start but has been more uneven of late than we have come to expect.  Caps' goalie Kuemper has allowed  4 goals in three of his last four starts.  The Islanders played poorly vs the Capitals last time out and are still on the dance card for the play-offs, so look for a better effort today.  The over is 4-1 when these two teams have met recently.  With the low total available, I expect a similar result today. Go for the over.

Utah Valley has been the most profitable College Basketball team to bet on this season. The Wolverines enter the NIT semifinals with a 24-9 ATS record. Since the start of February, they are 11-2 straight up and ATS in all games. They’ve beaten New Mexico, Colorado and Cincinnati to get here. 

But UAB, while not quite as profitable at the betting window, is the deserved favorite in this one. The Blazers have won 15 out of 17 games, going back to late January. The only two losses were to another NIT Final Four team (North Texas) and to Florida Atlantic in the Final of the C-USA Tournament. I probably don’t need to remind you as to what FAU has accomplished this March. 

Led by Jordan “Jelly” Walker, UAB has beaten Southern Miss by 28, Morehead State by 18 and Vanderbilt (on the road) by 8 in their previous three NIT games. They average 81.1 points while giving up only 69.9 per game. Eight of their last 15 wins have come by double digits.

Early money sided with the Blazers and so do I. They are the better team at both ends of the floor and played in the tougher conference.

Walker hasn’t even been shooting all that well recently (below 40% L4 games) and it hasn’t mattered. UAB went just 2 of 15 from three at Vandy and still won going away. They are simply the better team here and I will lay the points. 10*

The 5-5 Flames are uninspired at the moment, considering they are still in sight of a wild card spot.  They aren't much of a home team, and were absolutely crushed by the Kings the last time they faced them.They are riding Markstrom in net, and while he was better in his last two games, he has not been especially effective.

Meanwhile LA, at 8-2, is as hot as anyone in the NHL and a sizzling 10-1 against Pacific Division teams. They have a better road record this year.  Their offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring 30 goals in the last 6 games. Other than a sloppy win over St Louis, the Kings are also very tough to score on lately. Korpisalo has been very good since moving to LA, with a .929 save % in his last 5 games.

Now just two points out of first in the Pacific, I think the Kings will prove too much for the Flames on Tuesday.  Take the underdog Kings to steal this one on the road.

Currently 10th in the Western Conference and holding onto a tenuous half-game lead for the final play-in spot, Oklahoma City needs wins. Fortunately for them, their next three opponents will be Charlotte, Detroit and Indiana (i.e. the three worst teams from the Eastern Conference).

But even though OKC is 17-10 ATS vs. the East this season, I’m not sure I’d want to lay this many points. I certainly do expect the Thunder to put a decent number of points on the board, however. When they’re at home, they average 121.1 PPG this season.

Sunday night, the Thunder scored 118 in a win at Portland. It probably should have been more but scoring in that game slowed way down in the 4Q.

As for Charlotte, they are due for an uptick in scoring after their last five games have all stayed Under. They’re averaging just 104 points over that five-game stretch, which is well below their season average of 111.1 points/game. 

In my view, these teams should have no problem combining for 230+ points. They combined for 234 in the first meeting of the season, back in December. 10* 

The Suns snapped a seven-game ATS losing streak their last time out, beating the Philadelphia 76ers 125-105 as a 2.5-point favorite. It was also just the second SU win for Phoenix over an eight-game stretch. Having been playing without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant, the team is currently 4th in the West. But they’ve got six teams behind them within 2.5 games.

The good news is Ayton is expected to take the floor tonight for the Suns as they visit a Jazz team that is even less healthy. Utah’s three leading scorers - Markkanen, Clarkson and Sexton - all missed Saturday when the team lost for the third straight time, 121-113 to Sacramento as 9.5-point underdogs.

The Jazz have fallen back into 12th place in the conference, meaning they’d be out of the playoffs. You have to remember that back at the start of the season, very little was expected from this team. They had one of the lowest season win totals coming into 2022-23. 

Utah has definitely overachieved, but shorthanded, they can’t match up with Phoenix here. Devin Booker went for 29 against Philly while Bismack Biyombo had 17 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks. 

Before losing at Sacramento, the Jazz lost back to back home games - one to Portland (Blazers’ only win in forever) and one to Milwaukee (gave up 144 points). 8* 

Milwaukee is a team that doesn’t have much difficulty scoring. Over their last five games, the Bucks have averaged 124.2 points, including two efforts with 130 or more. Even when they don’t score all that much (like Saturday’s loss to Denver), their games tend to be high-scoring. (They gave up 129 to the Nuggets). 

One would think the Bucks are destined to have their way with the lowly Pistons on Monday. Detroit comes in with the worst record in the Eastern Conference and is 37 games back of the first place Bucks. The Pistons are tied for the second most points per game allowed (118.6) in the league this year. 

Having lost by at least nine points in five straight games, the Pistons are predictably massive underdogs here. I certainly have no interest in taking them, but also don’t want to lay this many points. So let’s look at the total.

Again, Milwaukee should score a lot tonight. Especially after a game in which they made only 25 percent of their three-point attempts. For the season, the Bucks are shooting 36.6% from three. 

Over the last three seasons, the Bucks have been road favorites of at least 12.5 points six different times. The Over is 6-0 in those six games. I’m counting on Detroit giving us “enough” to get Over the total here. Last time these teams played, the final score was 150-130. 10*

31 goals in 7 games; not bad for the NHL's 26th ranked offense. The Canadiens have been scoring surprisingly frequently lately.  Unfortunately they are also 29th/31st in goals against/PK, and have given up 37 goals in that same period.  The Habs have had 7 of 10 games go over the total.

The 3-7 Sabres have a legitimate barn-burner of an offense, but they've also struggled to defend.  They shut out the Islanders, but all 5 previous games went over, with the Sabres allowing 5+goals against on average. No net minder can be expected to perform well given these defenses, however Allen is scheduled in net for Montreal and he has been truly dreadful in his last 3 games.

Given the up and down nature of these two teams, either one could burn up the ice or flame out on any given day.  The total is a much more dependable bet.  Take the Over on Monday.

analysis soonHigh totals are nothing new in the NBA, but this one is too high as Minnesota takes on Golden State Sunday, an important game for playoff positioning in the Western Conference.

The Timberwolves come in 37-37, which has them seventh in the West. That’s 1.5 games back of Golden State (39-36). As a reminder, the top six get to avoid the play-in tournament.

Minnesota has gone Over in four straight, but one of those was a double overtime game, another they shot the lights out against the Knicks (61.4 FG%!) and then they faced Atlanta, who plays no defense. It remains to be seen who is in the lineup for the T’wolves tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are both listed as questionable.

Regardless, Golden State is much better defensively at home than they are on the road. The Under is 21-13 this year at the Chase Center. 

The first two times these teams met this season, they combined for 233 and 213 points. That last one saw the Warriors without Steph Curry and Draymond Green, so this one may not be as low-scoring. But Golden State is 13-4 Under this season facing teams that allow 116+ points/game. 10*

Prior to going Over in its 83-71 Sweet 16 victory over Xavier, the Texas Longhorns had gone Under in seven consecutive games. I think we’ll see a “return to form” here in the Elite 8 vs. Miami. 

The Hurricanes stunned everybody by hanging 89 points on top seed Houston in the Sweet 16. That was the Canes’ second straight Tournament game, scoring more than 80 points. There’s no denying this is a talented offensive team, but I can’t shake the fact they probably should have lost to Drake and only scored 63 in that first round game.

I don’t think we’ll see Miami shoot as well here against a Texas team that is Top 10 in defensive efficiency. I know I said the same thing about Houston’s defense, but the Cougars simply played poorly. 

Texas has shot better than 50% in each Tourney game thus far and was 7 of 12 from three vs. Xavier. That came on the heels of going 1 of 13 against Penn State. The Longhorns won’t be shooting as well here as they did in the last game. 

Texas might be without Dylan Disu. They managed without him against Xavier, but his absence would be significant. Both teams are set to cool off at the offensive end. 10*

Since an embarrassing loss against the Black Hawks, the Bruins have been all business lately, winning six straight and out-scoring their opponents 23-6.  They are off a win over Tampa.  The 6-4 Hurricanes dispatched the Leafs on Saturday.  They are an excellent home team, but will face one of the league's very best road teams tonight.  Boston was ousted by the Canes in last year's playoffs, and is 0-9 in games in Carolina.  I am sure that this must rankle, so look for all-out effort from the best team in the league. 

I don't believe that history will repeat itself tonight.  Boston has the edge in the net with Andersen facing Swayman.  Andersen has a sub-.900 save % in his last five games, and even worse in recent home games. Bruins' net-minder Swayman has a pair of shutouts in his last three appearances.  While roughly equal in defense for the season, the Bruins have played a much tighter style than the Hurricanes in recent games.  Boston has a solid edge on offense.

I'll take the Bruins as an underdog against anyone. This is a very significant game for an immensely proud team. Boston is playing play-off-style hockey at the moment . Take the Bruins to win.

After opening the Tournament with a couple wins over double digit seeds (Charleston, Furman), San Diego State served notice with a 71-64 victory over top-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. They pulled the upset despite leading scorer Matt Bradley going just 2 for 9 from the field and finishing with only 6 pts. 

The key was holding Alabama to 3 of 23 from behind the arc. The Aztecs can’t count on Creighton being that cold Sunday in the Elite 8, but they (SDSU) have held opponents to 28.2% for the year from three. 

Creighton is likely due for some shooting regression after making 58% of their FG attempts Friday. Getting a 15-seed (Princeton) in the Sweet 16 is as favorable as it gets for the Bluejays, who I also think weren’t as dominant as the final score (85-76) showed against Baylor in Round 2. They were 11 of 24 from three in that game. 

End of the day, Creighton is in store for some serious shooting regression against what is a top four defense in the country per KenPom.

Also, lower seeded teams are just 2-5 SU/ATS in this year’s Tournament when favored. Creighton is a 6-seed. San Diego State is a 5-seed. The Aztecs also have revenge from last year’s Tournament when they were up nine with less than four minutes in regulation, only to lose in OT. 10* 

Denver returns home for a huge showdown with Milwaukee Saturday night. These are the top teams in each conference, Milwaukee is 52-30 and has a 2.5-game edge in the East while Denver 49-24 with a three-game edge in the West.

The Nuggets have had two days off. They finished their road trip 3-2 SU/ATS after winning at Brooklyn and Washington. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is in the second night of a back to back after destroying Utah last night on the road. 

You can throw out the 107-99 win Milwaukee had against Denver back in January. The Nuggets rested most of their key guys in that game. 

Denver is 30-6 SU at home and outscoring teams here by about 10.5 PPG. 

I know it’s scary to fade a Bucks team that is 24-3 SU its last 27 games and 9-1 SU/9-0-1 ATS in the second night of a back to back. But playing at altitude without rest is a tough proposition, even if starters were able to rest in the 4Q last night. 10*

Fireworks are expected here between UConn and Gonzaga, which some may view as a “de facto National Title Game” the way this bracket has broken. One could certainly make an argument that these are the two best teams still standing.

UConn has shot the lights out the last two games (54% and 57%) and it’s not like Gonzaga is known for its defense. Yet we just saw Gonzaga’s last opponent fail to make a basket for an 11 minute stretch in the second half. Not saying that will happen again here (it won’t) but UConn is due to cool off offensively.

On the flip side, Gonzaga has been down double digits each of the last two games. I don’t think Drew Timme has the kind of game he had vs. UCLA.

Second chance points were also huge for the Zags vs. the Bruins. They are certainly not going to dominate the glass that same way vs. UConn, a team with tremendous size. The Huskies have allowed just 63, 55 and 65 points in their three tournament wins. 

The Under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. 10*

Kansas State is coming off back to back wins (75-69 over Kentucky and 98-93 over Michigan State) where they were underdogs, despite being the higher seed. In each instance, ShotQuality data indicates that the Wildcats “should have” lost, the Kentucky game due to being a little fortunate defensively and the Michigan State game due to being a little fortunate on both ends of the court. 

So far in this Tournament, KSU is shooting 65% from two-point range, so they are definitely due for a little regression here. KenPom has FAU rated as the better team here, and I won’t disagree, so let’s take the points in this first Elite 8 matchup. 

After squeaking by Memphis in Round 1, Florida Atlantic has beaten 16-seed FDU and then 4-seed Tennessee. That second round matchup was a bit of a gift and the Owls underperformed (perhaps feeling the pressure as big favorites?) but I didn’t think there was anything phony about the Sweet 16 win over Tennessee.

The Owls held the Vols to 33.3% shooting in the 62-55 win. This is a team that’s now won 10 in a row - with six different leading scorers - and is 34-3 SU on the year. 

I don’t think Kansas State will shoot 55% in this game as they have in two of the previous three rounds. Remember they’ve needed Kentucky to 4 of 20 from three and then shoot the lights out themselves to get by Michigan State. 8* 

The Kings are riding high in recent games.  They haven't given up more than two goals in nine games, a real step up from their  3.2  goals against season's avg.  Korpisalo has played very well as a King, with a .929 save % in his last eight starts.

The Jets seem to be reverting to their fine defensive form but don't score much themselves lately.  Their last five games have all gone under the total.  Hellebuyck has looked better recently after a poor early March.  The Jets are still in the running for a wild card spot, but must do what they do best to succeed, which is play a tight defensive game with solid goal-tending.

Look for this match-up to go under the total.

Phoenix is struggling mightily right now as over the last six games they are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS. They are without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant heading into Sacramento Friday night.

A big problem for the Suns right now is free throw disparity. They simply are not getting to the line. The last time they attempted more FTs than their opponent was 2/26.

This six-game ATS slide began with a 128-119 home loss to Sacramento (as four-point favorites). Ayton had 22 points and 12 rebounds in that game. 

The Kings are looking to bounce back from back to back losses to Utah and Boston. Prior to those losses, the team had won seven of eight. They gave up 132 to the Celtics, but are 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 130+ in the previous game. 

This is a key game in the Western Conference playoff picture. I just think it sets up well for the Kings, who are at home and clearly healthier than the Suns right now. 10*

You have to give Princeton credit for getting to the Sweet 16, but I feel that the Tigers have had a bit of a “charmed life” in getting thus far. The Ivy League Tournament, just a four-team affair, was played in their home gym. Then, in their first round NCAA Tournament game, they watched Arizona go stone cold down the stretch. Drawing Missouri in the second round was a favorable matchup for the 15-seed.

Creighton is by far the best defensive team that Princeton has seen in awhile. The Bluejays are Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

And Princeton has some worrisome offensive metrics. They’re currently 201st in 3PT%, 199th in FT% and 258th in offensive block%. 

At the same time, I don’t expect Creighton to shoot the three as well as they did against Baylor. They were 11 of 24 from behind the arc in that game. ShotQuality data indicates the Bluejays should have finished with about 11 fewer points.

Creighton was also 22 of 22 from the FT line in that win over Baylor. Not sure we see that kind of production again either. 10*

Miami is the 5-seed here in the Midwest Region and just beat Indiana 85-69 as a 1.5-point underdog in the second round. But that came on the heels of a close call vs. Drake in the first round where the Hurricanes needed to rally late for a 63-56 win and cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Top seed Houston failed to cover its first round game as the Cougars could only defeat 16-seed Northern Kentucky (a tricky team that plays zone defense) 63-52 as lofty 19-point favorites. But after falling behind early, Kelvin Sampson’s team roared back in the second round, eventually blowing out Auburn 81-64 as 5.5-point chalk.

Looking at this matchup, the one thing that sticks out is Miami ranks just 109th in defensive efficiency. That’s the worst defensive rating among all Sweet 16 teams (even worse than Princeton) and I think they’ll struggle to contain Marcus Sasser (22 points vs. Auburn) and company. Miami is allowing almost 54% of its opponents’ points to be scored inside the three-point line.

Miami supporters will point to the guard play, which was tremendous again vs. Indiana. But this is a far worse matchup for the Hurricanes as Houston allows the lowest midrange shooting percentage in the country and also have the highest block rate in all of College Basketball.

Furthemore, Houston has a big edge in rebounding in this matchup and is well-suited to slowing down Miami, thus limiting the ‘Canes’ transition opportunities. 10* 

The Islanders, winners of three straight, have scored seventeen goals while allowing just six.  Five of six of their games have gone over the total.  They have also won six straight against the Blue Jackets. The Islanders, still in the running for a wild card spot, have been beating up on weaker teams (and the Leafs), scoring in a very prolific un-Islander-like  style.  They face one of the league's worst defenses on Friday.  Columbus are off a 7-6 win, but victories have been few and far between. High totals have not.  The over has figured in eight of their last ten games.  The Jackets have given up a ton of goals, but they have also managed to score an average of four goals a game in their last five games.

The total is lowish, given the Islanders' reputation, but I expect a higher total on Friday night.  Take the game to go over the total.

***NOTE THAT THIS IS A MONEY LINE SELECTION*** - I am playing the Clippers to win straight up, not against the spread! 

I think this is a good time to sell high on the Thunder, who upset the Clippers 101-100 as 6.5-point underdogs the other night. That game stayed well Under the total, which closed at 237.

The Clippers actually jumped out to an early 18-4 lead in that game. But things took a dramatic turn in the fourth quarter when Paul George suffered a serious leg injury that will keep him sidelined for at least 2-3 weeks. 

People want to act like the “sky is falling” in LA right now. While the Clippers have underwhelmed this season, they’ve still got Kawhi Leonard and are a better team than the Thunder, who are still just 14-21 SU on the road this season.

I expect the Clippers to shoot better from three than what they did Tuesday (6 of 31) even without George. Leonard should score at least 30 here as he has done three of the last six games he’s played without George. He’s also gone for 30+ in three of the last five games vs. OKC. 7*

The Canucks are playing a much better brand of hockey under their new coach.  The return of Demko in net has solidified the goalie situation.  They lost against Vegas , and were called out for giveaways, but generally the defense and PK have been very much improved.  They are also 5-1 in recent home games, getting solid offense, and have been deadly in scoring short-handed lately. 

The Sharks are 1-9 and seem destined for dead last this season.  They generally haven't been scoring much, although they managed 4 goals against the Oilers.  Goalie Kahkonen has lost 9 straight games, giving up more than four goals a game.

The Canucks are better than they have been all season, and seem to be enjoying themselves after a very turbulent season.  It won't do much for their draft placing, but they are playing like they have something to prove.  Take Vancouver to win again at home.

I’m expecting this to be a defensive battle in the East Regional between 7-seed Michigan State and 3-seed Kansas State.

The lower seeded team is actually the favorite here, which I’m not sure I agree with. But Under seems like the best course of action here considering Michigan State plays at a very slow pace (303rd in adjusted tempo) and hasn’t been hitting its threes recently (2 of 17 vs. Marquette). 

Kansas State probably can’t count on shooting 67% from two-point range either, which is what they’ve done in their first two tournament games. Against Marquette, Michigan State allowed only nine made field goals from inside the arc! 

Unders have been the way to go so far in the NCAA Tournament. Through the first two rounds (and play-in games), the Under is hitting at a 67% rate (35-17). 

Kansas State has been one of the few exceptions to the Under rule as both of their Tourney games so far have stayed Under. But they shot poorly from three against Kentucky in the second round and my guess is that Tom Izzo is going to come up with a way to slow down Markquis Nowell in this game. 10* 

Both Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant have been ruled out here for Portland, but Utah may be without some key pieces as well with Lori Markkanen having missed the last game and Jordan Clarkson still banged up. So I’m willing to take the Blazers plus the points in what is essentially a must win for them.

Portland comes into tonight trailing Utah by four games in the race for the last play-in spot. The Blazers have lost six in a row, failing to cover the last four, to fall back in the playoff chase. Meanwhile, the Jazz are trending in the other direction with six straight covers and winning four of their last five straight up.

But I still don’t see that much of a difference between these two Northwest Division clubs. Utah has been great as a dog this season, but they are only 12-19 ATS when favored. Having the seventh worst defensive rating in the league is also not ideal when the Jazz are laying points.

The Blazers have won the previous two meetings and have shot 47% or better against the Jazz all three times they’ve faced them in 2022-23. The one loss came by only five points. Damian Lillard scored 60 the last time they played.

With Milwaukee coming to town Friday, Utah may be looking past Portland. I just think the Jazz are due to “lay an egg” this evening. The only two times since the All Star Break where Utah has been asked to lay more than a point both came against San Antonio and they lost one of those games. Take the points. 10* 

The Penguins are struggling, losing four straight and outscored 18-7.  It won't get any easier on Wednesday.  They'll face a Avs team at home and in top form.  Colorado has won six straight, outscoring their opponents 28-12 in that stretch.  Looking at the numbers, the Avs have a sizable edge on defense and the Power Play, and their formidable offense is finally clicking.

Penguins' goalie Jarry has had some very poor outings lately, with just an .849 sv. % in March.  Colorado's likely net minder Georgiev ha s been the opposite, earning a shutout in his last appearance, and sporting a shiny .975 sv. % in his last three games.

The Penguins are just .500 on the road this season and are an "also-ran" in the playoff race at the moment.  The Avs are challenging for first in the West.  Take the Avs, at home, to continue to win.

This is a big game for both teams in what is shaping up to be a very crowded (and tight) Western Conference playoff race. Only four games separate 4th from 12th place in the West. Both the Thunder and Clippers are in that mix.

Oklahoma City has a better point differential than all but the top four teams. So they are to be respected. But I’m not sure I’d want to take the Thunder here against a Clippers team that was the preseason NBA Title favorite and now at full strength.

The Clippers are already 0-2 vs. the Thunder this season, however. 

So instead of the side, let’s look at the total as the Under looks like a smart play here. The Under is 29-10 in the Clippers’ previous 39 home games. Plus 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams here in LA have gone Under. 8*

This is a spot where the Pelicans should absolutely roll. San Antonio is the worst team in the league and winning is not in their best interest at this point. The Spurs did win Sunday, 126-118 at home against Atlanta. However, I thought that was a phony result as they not only erased a 24-point deficit, but also were fortunate to go 14 of 28 from three while the Hawks were just 5 of 22. 

The Spurs main focus at this point should be to lose as many games as possible and thus better their chances in the Draft Lottery. They have the worst point differential in the league and are being outscored by 13 points/game on the road.

New Orleans needs this game after only managing a split with another lowly team, Houston. The Pelicans are currently 12th in the Western Conference, but just one game back of the final play-in spot. Having a positive YTD point differential tells me this team is better than its 34-37 SU record.

The Pelicans have already beaten the Spurs three times this season, putting up 129, 117 and 126 points. They are 22-13 SU at home. 

The Spurs have covered only 5 of 23 road games with a total of 230 or higher. 10*

The Jets are in the midst of blowing a once promising season.  They've lost six of ten, can't win at home with regularity, and can't seem to find the back of the net anywhere. Three of their last four wins have been by a single goal. They've scored just two goals in three games, and were shut out twice. Star net-minder Hellebuyck has not looked his best February through March.
Meanwhile, the lowly Coyotes have won 6 of 7 games, and their last two losses have gone to overtime.  They are better rested than the Jets, and should have Vejmelka back in net on Tuesday.  The Coyotes are very much over-achieving on offense, averaging 4 goals per game over their last 8 starts.  I'll take the Coyotes on the puck line at +1 1/2.

This is a great spot to fire on Southern Utah, in my opinion, as Eastern Kentucky is not only playing its third game in three days but the previous two both went to overtime!

On Sunday, EKU rallied back from a 13-point second half deficit to stun Cleveland State 91-75 as a one-point favorite. That was one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see as the Colonels outscored the Vikings 17-1 in OT. Then yesterday, they were ahead most of the way against Indiana State, only to again go to OT - where they prevailed 89-88 as a seven-point dog. 

Southern Utah had a close call yesterday as well, beating Rice 91-89 but failing to cover the 4.5-point spread. But that too was a misleading result as the Thunderbirds led the entire way and were up by as much as 17. 

This is SUU’s third game in four days, but they had Sunday off and have not logged the extra minutes EKU has. Furthermore, Southern Utah easily won its first CBI game, 72-50 over North Alabama, an ASun rival of EKU. 

Southern Utah (16th in adjusted tempo) plays even faster than Eastern Kentucky (44th). A fast paced game is not ideal for the Colonels right now, given they’ve played 90 minutes of hard fought basketball the last two days. Lay the short number. 10* 

The 7-3 Oilers are still within sight of first place in the West, which makes a win in Monday's game against the Sharks absolutely vital.  Edmonton hasn't played a really poor team in ten games, which makes their record even more impressive.  There are no questions around their offense; they've outscored their opponents 16-8 in their last three games.  Their defense has perked up lately.  They limited the Bruins, Sabres and Dallas to two goals or less in recent games.
The Sharks truly are a poor team at the moment, losing 6 straight games.  With the league's 30th ranked defense, they will be in tough against the Oilers' top of the pops offense and Power Play. Sharks likely goalie Kahkonen's save % over his last 5 games is a very humble .836, including an eight and a six goals-against effort.  The Oilers Skinner has won 7 of 8 games, with just one sub-par start against the Leafs during that time.
I generally shy away from the puck line, but this is one game where I feel comfortable in wagering on it.  Look for the Oilers to light it up on Monday.  Edmonton - 1 1/2!

Utah has now covered five in a row, though they had to come back from down 19 on Saturday to stun Boston 118-117 (as 4.5 point pups) here at home. Nevertheless, oddsmakers continue to not give this Jazz team the respect it deserves considering a phenomenal 26-10 ATS mark as an underdog, which is best in the league. 

Speaking of a team that doesn’t get enough respect, Sacramento is tied for 2nd in the West (with Memphis) at 43-27 SU. The Kings are well-positioned to snap the longest active playoff drought in the four major North American sports. They last made the playoffs in the 2005-2006 season. 

But while the Kings come into Monday on a hot 6-1 SU/ATS run, this is not a great spot for them as it will be their fourth road game in the last six days. They’ve won each of the previous three, but two of those were by five points or less. 

Speaking of close games, these teams have already met twice this year and while the Kings are 2-0 straight up against the Jazz, those two wins were by a total of three points. Both were decided in the closing seconds. 

Sacramento shot almost 56% from the floor against Washington on Saturday, which included 22 of 37 from three. Don’t expect them to repeat those numbers here. This is too many points to lay to a competent team at the end of a road trip. 10*

Milwaukee was a surprise team in the Horizon League this season, finishing second behind Youngstown State. But the Panthers’ run towards the NCAA Tournament ended with a semifinal loss in the conference tournament, 93-80 to Cleveland State. They got the invite to the CBI, however, and made the most of it by defeating Stetson in OT yesterday, 87-83 as a 1.5-point dog.

You may think Charlotte has a bit of an edge because their first round CBI game was on Saturday. The 49ers did defeat Western Carolina 65-56 as six-point favorites. But they had to come back from a 31-20 halftime deficit to do so. WCU shot 3 of 20 from three-point range and was just 3 of 7 from the free throw line.

I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of numbers tonight from Milwaukee, who averages eight made threes per game and shoots nearly 74% from the FT line. 

Important to note that Charlotte came into the CBI on a three-game losing streak. They are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games following an ATS win. 

Even with the rest advantage, I don’t see how the 49ers are this big of a favorite. It will be interesting to see what pace this game is played at because Milwaukee is 12th in the country in adjusted tempo while Charlotts is 362nd (second slowest). The Panthers are 7-2 ATS following a game where they allowed 80 or more points. 10* 

Miami was only a 2.5-point favorite against Drake in the first round. Like all of the other 5-seeds, the Hurricanes were able to avoid the upset, but in their case it was not easy. The ‘Canes trailed Drake by eight points with under five minutes to go, only to close with a 16-1 run. 

It was a real shock that Miami could win a game where it shot 11 of 38 on two-point attempts. I say that because this is a team that typically relies on its offense. The Hurricanes are just 114th in the country in defensive efficiency, the lowest ranking among remaining tourney teams save for Fairleigh Dickinson. 

Indiana will not let “The U” off the hook the same way Drake did. The Hoosiers had far less problems in Round 1 as they beat a very good Kent State team 71-60 as 4.5-point favorites. IU held Kent to just 32% from the field. 

Jackson-Davis should have a big game here for the Hoosiers against a Miami team that I already mentioned is suspect defensively. The ‘Canes don’t really have the size to match up.

IU can also shoot the three. Defensively, they are built to stop Miami’s backcourt. 10* 

Other than a poor effort vs Calgary, Vegas has been overachieving on offense, averaging over 4  goals a game in their last 5.  They'll be all in against Columbus to hold onto their lead in a tight Western Conference.  Both defenses are depleted.  Vegas is missing a remarkable 4 goal-tenders this year.  Columbus is down a goalie and 2 defensemen at the moment.  Hutchison gave up five goals for Columbus last time out.  Quick really struggled vs Calgary, and his save % is under .890 for the season.

Columbus is a finalist in the Bedard sweepstakes, winning just once in their last seven games.  They are 8-20 on the road, and bottom feeders on offense and defense.  I expect Vegas to put up big numbers vs the Blue Jackets, but Quick has hardly been unbeatable lately.   The over has figured in 7 of 10 Columbus games and 3 straight Vegas Knights matches.Take this game to go over the total as well.

UCLA demolished UNC Asheville in the first round 86-53, easily covering the 17-point spread. Northwestern, who opened as a dog but ended up being bet to a favorite, defeated Boise State 65-57 and obviously covered the number as well.

I expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Oddsmakers do too. But I think the O/U is too high here considering both teams are 235th or lower in adjusted tempo and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. UCLA is actually #1 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom.

The Bruins shot 54% against UNC Asheville, which they won’t do again here. But I do expect another strong defensive effort, similar to the L3 games where they’ve allowed 33%, 36% and 37% shooting to go along with 56, 61 and 53 points.

Over the last month, Northwestern has not gone back to back games without shooting below 37% once. They shot 49% against Boise State. So recent history suggests they’ll be off here.

UCLA is 4-1 Under following a straight up win by 20 or more points. 10*

The Bulls have righted the ship a bit with three wins in the last four games. They are 3-1 ATS in that same stretch. Previously, they’d really struggled ATS, covering just 2 of 12 games.

Chicago comes into Saturday in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. That’s obviously the last play-in spot. But it’s a tight lead with Indiana only one-half game back. The Bulls really need this one.

Miami is 7th in the East and barring some late collapse will make the playoffs, or at least the play-in round. But what I find interesting is that Chicago has the better YTD point differential of these two teams.

The Heat have been real money-burners when favored this season, going 15-32 ATS. They are just 4-15 ATS their last 19 games overall.

Bottom line is I don’t think the Heat should be favored here. Take the points. 10*

The Flyers are 2-10 in back to backs, while the Hurricanes are 7-2.  The Canes are 8-1 against teams with a losing record.  The Flyers are 3-12 vs teams with winning records.  Carolina  has lost 3 of 4, are one of the league's best road teams, and should be in an ugly mood after their recent poor play.  The Flyers won last night for just the second time in 10 games, and have lost by multiple goals in 6 of 10 starts.

The Flyers will likely start Sandstrom in net.  He has lost 8 straight.  Between goalie Andersen and the Canes' second ranked defense and PK, Carolina should have their way with the Flyers offense and PP, worst and second worst in the NHL.  Look for Carolina to bounce back in a big way on Saturday night.  Take the Hurricanes on the puck line at -1 1/2.

This number seems crazy to me. I’ve got Tennessee rated as the better team, so there’s no way they should be getting three (or more) points here even though Duke looked awfully impressive in its first round blowout over Oral Roberts.

Believe it or not, Shot Quality numbers suggest Duke was not nearly as dominant as the final score showed against Oral Roberts. That surprised me a bit as the Blue Devils were never threatened in the 74-51 win. But Oral Roberts missed a TON of open shots in that game.

Tennessee only won by three against Louisiana in their first round game. But they led by as many as 18 points and only shot 25% from three. I think the Vols are better than how they looked Thursday.

No Zeigler remains a big deal for UT but this team can play defense. They are #2 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), holding teams to 37.0% overall shooting and 26% from three.

The ACC was really down this year and I think we’re at the peak of the market right now with Duke, who won their conference tournament and is drastically overvalued as a result. I think the wrong team is favored in this 4 vs. 5 matchup. Take the points. 10* 

I think this is a very tough matchup for 4-seed Indiana drawing Kent State as a 13-seed. Champions of the Mid-American Conference, Kent State won’t be the least bit intimidated here

The Golden Flashes have a slightly higher defensive efficiency rating than Indiana. That’s notable as, rarely, do you see the mid-major underdog with a higher defensive efficiency rating than the favored school from a power conference.

Sincere Carry is the player to watch for Kent State. Defensively, I think they can do a good job at limiting Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. 

The Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, 4-0 ATS on a neutral court and 10-1 ATS in the non-conference. They very nearly beat Houston and stayed within seven of Gonzaga. 

Indiana is just 7-9 SU away from Assembly Hall and MAC teams have done quite well recently in this Tournament as underdogs. Take the points. 10*

Kansas State seems like a vulnerable high seed to me. The Wildcats were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason, so it’s a bit of a shock to even see them here in the Big Dance, let alone as a 3-seed. 

The Wildcats were not particularly strong away from home either, going just 8-8 SU overall. They come into the Tournament having lost two in a row, the regular season finale (89-81 at West Virginia and then they were one and done in the Big XII Tournament, losing 80-67 to TCU). 

A bit of ominous history for K State - the last four #3 seeds to lose in the Round of 64 all hailed from the Big 12.

Montana State won the Big Sky Tournament to get here. They were not regular season champions, although I think most who followed the league knew the Bobcats were better than Eastern Washington. Montana State comes in with a 5-1 ATS record as an underdog this season. They were in the Tournament last year.

Montana State gets to the free throw line a lot and I think can find success attacking the rim in this matchup. Defensively, they should be able to exploit Kansas State’s turnover issues. Take the points. 10* 

The Caps travel to St. Louis on Friday, facing the 3-7 Blues. In addition to losing, the Blues have given up 13 goals in their last two games.  For the Season, the St Louis defense has sunk to 28th.  With Binnington sent to the corner, it will likely be Greiss in net.  He has seen very limited action this season and for good reason.  Even with their defensive woes, St. Louis can still put the puck in the net.  They've averaged 4 goals scored in their last 4 games.
The 5-5 Capitals are also scoring in bunches, putting up 13 goals in their last 3 games. We've seen the total go over in three straight in both the Capitals and Blues games.  The Caps are in a pattern of losing following a win, but I think they will have success against Greiss.  Let's stick to what works here and take this game to again go over the total.

I like the underdog here. When the higher seed (in this case, Texas A&M) is favored by three points or less, they are on a money-burning 38-62-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Furthermore, the Big 10 is on a 12-1-1 ATS run vs. SEC teams in the Big Dance! 

Both teams lost in the Final of their respective Conference Tournaments. But I’ve felt Texas A&M comes in a bit overvalued. They were down 13 at halftime to Arkansas in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It was certainly a surprise to see the Aggies finish second in the SEC this year. 

Penn State underachieved much of this year, but they’d won five straight before falling to Purdue by two on Sunday and they are 5-1 ATS L6 games. Also, the Nittany Lions are 13-2 ATS L15 neutral site games and 11-5 ATS as underdogs this season.

A&M is very reliant on getting to the free throw line to generate points, but Penn State is one of the best teams in the country at not fouling. The Nittany Lions also don’t give up a lot of second chance points, something else A&M thrives on.

But the big red flag for Texas A&M is that they allow a high three-point rate. Penn State is one of the Top 10 three-point shooting teams in the country. Penn State doesn’t turn the ball over much either. 10*

The Flames have stepped it up slightly lately after a very disappointing stretch.  They won 3 of their last 5 games but were 0-5 before that.  They've had some solid goal-tending from Markstrom, but he has now played in 9 straight games, and allowed 4 goals in his last start. The Flames have trouble scoring against solid defenses, and the Golden Knights are top ten in goals against.

Vegas has won 4 straight and 7 of  8, surging to first place in the Western Conference. They are back home after a very successful road trip, and are 8-1 in recent home games.  Their offense is on fire, averaging 4.5  goals a game in their last 4.  The Knights have a solid edge in all categories except power play.

Vegas looks like a real contender at the moment, and today's line is quite generous, all things considered.  I am banking on Vegas to continue in their winning ways.  Take the Golden Knights to top the Flames at home today.

Arkansas is the favorite here and is getting the majority of bets. But we’ve actually seen the line go down, which is a signal that Illinois is the sharper side in this 8 vs. 9 matchup. 

When the higher seed (in this case, Arkansas) is favored by three points or less, they are on a money-burning 38-62-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Specifically, 8-seeds are on a terrible 4-16-1 ATS run when favored by three or less over 9-seeds (with 14 outright losses). 

Also boding well for Illinois is the fact that Big 10 teams are on a 12-1-1 ATS against the SEC in NCAA Tournament games! Overall, Arkansas has never beaten Illinois, losing all five head to head meetings. 

Zeroing in on the specific matchup, neither team enters the Tournament in good form. But Illinois is 5-1 ATS as a dog this season and I think they can do a good job at limiting transition, which is what Arkansas wants to do here. 

Arkansas is a bit of a mess right now as well. There was an issue with the coaching staff and reporters following the loss in the SEC Tournament where the Razorbacks blew a 13-point halftime lead. I know the Hogs have been to back to back Elite Eights, but this is not a team I want to back right now. 8* 

The Wild lost last time out but are 7-3 in recent games.  They allowed 5 goals to the Coyotes but otherwise it has been 2 or less in their previous 9 games.  The Wild, missing top scorer Kaprizov, had been limited in offense but have broken out in their last three games with 13 goals.  They'll pit their top 3 defense against the Blues' 27th goals against. 

The Blues have won just 3 of their last 10 games.  They are tough on other cellar-dwellers, but are 0-5 against top teams.  They'll face a very steady net minder in Fleurie.  Their goalie, Binnington, has been up and down of late.

The Wild haven't had much luck against  the Blues in St Louis, but they are the far superior team at the moment and a very solid road team this season.  Look for a revenge win as Minnesota takes this one on the road.

Arizona State is no stranger to these “First Four” games as this will be the third time in the last six years they’ve had to come to Dayton to “play their way in” to the NCAA Tournament. Previously, they’ve gone 1-1 SU in this scenario under Bobby Hurley. 

I like the Sun Devils’ chances of making it 2-1 tonight as they face a Nevada team that’s probably lucky just to be here. The Wolf Pack were not included in the final 68 of most bracketologists’ projections. It was a surprise to see them get the nod over Rutgers after losing three straight - all as favorites. 

Considering they were favored all three times, you may not be shocked to learn that all of those Nevada losses came to non-tournament teams (Wyoming, UNLV and San Jose State). To be fair, the last two were both overtime games. But still, the Torvik rankings have them 97th in the country over the last month. That’s not good. 

I don’t think ASU will be bothered too much by the size of Nevada.  The Sun Devils, who have two former Wolf Pack players on their current roster (transfers), are 28th in the country in defensive efficiency. Nevada’s shot selection is not particularly good according to the ShotQuality numbers.

Arizona State can be inconsistent, but holds wins over the likes of Arizona and Creighton. Nevada is pretty good about not turning the ball over, but there aren’t many teams in the Mountain West with the length of ASU. Also, can’t forget that the MWC is on a horrendous NCAA Tournament run (14-35-1 ATS L50 games, 20 straight losses for teams seeded 10th or lower and 0-7 SU overall the L3 tournaments). Lay the points. 10*

This is an NIT game where Youngstown State will look to get over the disappointment of being bounced from the Horizon League Tourney (where they were the top seed). The Penguins had a great year overall, finishing 24-9 straight up and they have not lost back to back games all season. 

Oklahoma State is the NIT’s #1 overall seed, but has caught an unlucky break in that a scheduling conflict with their home arena (wrestling tournament) has resulted in this game being played at the Beeghly Center, the home of Youngstown State. 

So while the Cowboys are the higher seed and from the much stronger conference, it’s a major disadvantage having to go to a place where YSU is 14-2 SU this season.

Taking the points here seems like a “no brainer” to me and the early money agreed. This will be only the fourth time all season that Youngstown State is catching points.

No Avery Anderson III for the Pokes either and that’s a significant absence. This team is just 2-6 SU/ATS over its last eight games and despite the words of head coach Mike Boynton Jr, I’ve got to imagine there’s some real disappointment on the OSU side over not getting into the Big Dance as an at-large team. Now having to go on the road in the NIT as a higher seed may lead to an unmotivated effort. Take the points. 8* 

I went against the Suns last night and that was a wise decision as they got blown out of the water in Golden State, losing 123-112. Phoenix found itself down 43-21 at the end of the first quarter, so it was pretty much over early. But credit them for keeping things respectable over the final three quarters.

Tonight it’s back home for the Suns against the hottest team in the league, that being the Bucks. Since everyone just saw the Suns get blown out on national TV, my assumption is that the Bucks will take money in this matchup. 

It’s also the second night of a back to back, the third game in four nights and Kevin Durant is still injured. But be aware that this Phoenix team is much better at home (22-11) than they are on the road (15-20). 

But Milwaukee is also in the second night of a back to back and may also be shorthanded. Khris Middleton is likely to be rested and Brook Lopez could be suspended after a late ejection in last night’s 133-124 win at Sacramento.

The Bucks shot 58% from the floor last night and got 46 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Don’t look for those kind of numbers here. This is a great value on Phoenix getting points at home. 10* 

The Vegas Golden Knights have won three straight games on the road, allowing just six goals scored.  Even in their last loss, they only allowed a pair of goals against.  Vegas is a dominant road team, particularly tough to score on in away games.  The Flyers struggle at home this season. Well, the Flyers struggle everywhere at the moment.  They've lost three straight and eight of ten, in most cases by multiple goals.  They've also got the worst offense in the league at the moment, scoring just twelve goals in ten games.  The Knights, who don't have the most potent offense, have more than double that number in the same number of games.  Probable goalies are Hart for the Flyers (very average lately) and Adin Hill, if he returns as expected. Hill was terrific leading up to his brief injury.
The Knights are favored but not as highly as one might expect.  Take Vegas to win easily.

This is a “First Four” matchup in the South region of the NCAA Tournament with a couple of 16 seeds - Texas A&M Corpus Christi taking on Southeast Missouri State - playing for the “right” to likely get beat down by Alabama in the Round of 64.

Texas A&M CC were the regular season champs of the Southland and obviously also won the Conference Tournament to earn the automatic bid. The Islanders enter the Big Dance with a 23-10 overall SU record and have won 12 of their previous 13 games. They are led by Trevian Tennyson. 

SEMO were not the regular season champs in the Ohio Valley, in fact they finished fourth in that league. So it's certainly a surprise to see the Redhawks here. They had to win four games in four days to win the OVC Tournament. This is the first time the program has been in the NCAA Tournament since 2000. 

Before they went on their run in the OVC Tourney, SEMO had lost five of seven games. They are deserved underdogs for this “First Four” matchup.

SEMO likes to play fast (7th nationally in adjusted tempo), but that is likely to work against them here as Texas A&M-CC averages over 80 points/game. I have the favorite rated ahead of a 16-seed (Howard) that’s already in the Round of 64. So I’m not sure the Islanders should even have to be in this game. Look for them to pick up a big win. 10*

I really like the Warriors here. They are 0-3 vs. the Suns so far in 2022-23, but a big reason for that - Mikal Bridges - is now gone, off to the Nets. The kicker is that Kevin Durant, for whom Bridges was part of the package to obtain, is sidelined by injury.

This will be the third game in a row Golden State faces a team minus its superstar. It didn’t matter when they lost by 21 at Memphis (no Ja Morant) last week, but then the Warriors came back and beat Milwaukee (no Giannis) 125-116 in overtime Saturday night.

As was reinforced the last two games, the Warriors are a totally different team at home than they are away. The win over Milwaukee improved their home record to 28-7 straight up. They are just 7-26 SU on the road (9-24 ATS). 

The Suns had a 4-0 SU/ATS win streak snapped last time out, falling 128-119 to Sacramento. 

Golden State is 24-11 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of nearly eight points per game. Steph Curry, who went for 36 pts Sat night, had a 50-point game earlier in the year against Phoenix and that was while being guarded by Bridges.  Lay the points. 10*

The Leafs' 7th best defense is ranked 20 points higher the Buffalos'.  The Sabres have the edge on offense, but it is minimal, and Toronto has a huge advantage on special teams.  The Leafs are 7-3 in their last ten games, beating the Oilers 7-4 in their last game.  They are one of the best home teams in the league this season. 

The Sabres have had some growing pains lately, losing 6 of 7 games.  They were crushed by Dallas and Boston lately, two other solid defensive teams.  The Sabres have had no luck at all against the Leafs this season, outscored 11-5.

The Leafs are a game back from an extensive and successful road trip.  Look for them to rack up a second consecutive home win on Monday.  Take the Leafs on the puck line at -1 1/2.