The set-up: Both teams come in off losses and I believe this will help in creating a very tightly checked/competitive under on Saturday afternoon. Arkansas comes in off a 79-76 OT loss to Auburn, while Missouri fell 68-51 to Texas A&M. Overall though Arkansas averages 74.5 PPG and it allows 65.3, while Missouri averages 65.3 PPG, while allowing 63.5. 

The pick: Note as well that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 road games following an OT loss in which it allowed 78 points or more in, while Missouri has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 home after scoring 53 points or less in its previous contest. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Arkansas/Missouri.

The set-up: Minnesota managed to hold on for the 4-2 win at home over the Canucks last time out. The Wild are good at home and poor on the road and they now face one of the best "home" teams in the league. The Stars allow a league low in goals to opposing offenses at home and after losing at the Islanders in OT by a score of 4-3 last time out, they'll be extra determined to return to form here in front of the home town crowd. Ultimately though, I think Dallas wants to answer for its humbling 7-0 loss in Minnesota on January 18th. 

The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is just 6-9 (-3 units) vs. the division this season, while Dallas is 13-8 (+3.7 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, 7-4 (+2.8 units) after allowing four or more goals. This one has home side blowout written all over it. Lay the price with confidence.

7* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Stars. 

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this one staying below the posted number once it's all said and done in my opinion. Both teams come in off victories, with ATL beating the Wolves and Boston getting the better of Orlando. Atlanta just traded away half its team, so don't expect much of anything from the visitors tonight. Boston remained quiet at the trade deadline, but the last thing it'll want to do here is to turn this into a "shootout." Note that the C's rank 17th in the league with an average of 102.9 possessions a night. 

The pick: Note as well that ATL has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 14 after allowing 110 points or more in four straight games, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games. Considering all of the above information, I definitely feel this number is a little high. 

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Hawks/Celtics.

The set-up: Harvard is 13-6 and it's looking to bounce back after losing its last two games by a combined four points. Most recently The Crimson fell to Princeton, 70-69. Harvard is still 6-3 on the road though and I think it will in fact use the last two losses as motivation to once again take this contest down to the wire. Outright victory? Clearly very possible. But in a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. Yale is 7-0 at home and 14-4 ATS this year. The Bulldogs are no pushovers, but I think that's just added incentive for The Crimson to "come to play" today. 

The pick: Note as well that Harvard is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 as an underdog, including 2-0 ATS this year, while Yale is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a home vs. a conference rival, including 0-2 ATS this season. This one has "nail biter" written all over it, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Harvard.

The set-up: The Spurs are 22-28 and the Blazers are 23-28. I think it's safe to say that neither team can feel very happy where it sits right now. Each is dealing with chemistry issues, along with injury issues and other off-court issues. All of these factors has contributed to these once power house Western Conference teams falling off dramatically this season. SA has reportedly been looking for offers for top plays LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. San Antonio won't be lacking for motivation here  after a blowout loss to the Lakers. Portland is on the outside of the playoff picture looking in as well and it also comes in off a blowout loss to the Nuggets. Situationally I absolutely believe that this one sets up as more of a defensive affair, as each team doubles down to try and earn this victory here. 

The pick: Note as well that The Spurs have seen the total go under the number in five of their last six after a loss by ten points or more, while the Blazers have seen the total dip under in ten of their last 16 off a road loss. This one has "war" written all over it. Play the under.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Spurs/Blazers.

The set-up: I think the second place Cougars get caught looking past their lowly opponent tonight. Now, I'm not calling for the outright upset or anything, but I'm definitely expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Yes, BYU is 6-3 in WCC action and Portland is just 9-15 overall and 1-7 in league play, but I believe the home side "comes to play" tonight. BYU comes in off a monumental 81-79 win over Saint Mary's last time out, which sets it up for a classic "letdown" here in my opinion. Portland most recently fell 85-61 to Santa Clara. 

The pick: Note though that BYU is just 1-3 ATS this season already as a road favorite or pick and just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 off a win vs. a conference rival, while Portland is already 3-0 ATS this season in revenging a loss in which the opponent scored 85 points or more in. Look for the Pilots to play with passion as they try to avenge the earlier setback and expect the visitors to leave the back door open just enough for home side to comfortably sneak in through once it's all said and done.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Portland.

The set-up: Weber State is the "hungrier" team here in my opinion. The Wildcats are 8-14 overall and 4-7 in Big Sky play. Weber State beat Southern Utah last Thursday, and then fell to Northern Colorado on the weekend. Sacramento State is 11-9 overall, but it's also only just 4-7 in league action. The Hornets come in with zero momentum as well, as they've lost three straight, most recently a 67-53 setback to Idaho on Monday. Weber State also plays with the added incentive of "revenge" tonight after it fell 71-57 in Sacramento back on January 11th. 

The pick: Sacramento State is also a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog of three points or less (including 0-2 ATS this season), while Weber State is already 4-1 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the short points, expect a big rout.

8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on Weber State.

The set-up: Denver destroyed Portland 127-99 last night, but I think it'll come out flat here vs. this desperate Jazz team. Utah has last four straight and I believe it's going to keep the foot on the gas from to finish here as it looks ot take advantage vs. the now weary Nuggets team. The Jazz are still 18-4 at the Vivint Smart Home Arena this year and I expect that record to improve resoundinly after this one. 

The pick: The Nuggets are also just 48-60 ATS in their last 108 on the raoad and only 2-4 ATS this season after covering in four or five of their last six vs. the spread, while Utah is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this year after failing to cover four of its last five vs. teh spread, 5-2 ATS in trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent and 2-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of six points or more. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction for the home side. Lay the points. 

10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: The Cavs are hungry for a victory here after four straight losses. Clearly Cleveland is already planning for next season, but the team will compete here in my opinion. The Thunder have won two straight and I think they're going to get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today. While each has played to some higher-scoring affairs of late, I believe that from a situational stand-point that this one finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. Neither team plays at a fast pace either, further strengthening our theory. 

The pick: Note as well though that Cleveland has seen the total dip under the number in four of its last five after scoring 115 points or more in its previous outing, while OKC has seen the total dip below in nine of its last 13 after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cavs/Thunder.

The set-up: Am I predicting an outright upset here? Nope. But I do think that the "hungrier" team will come in "under the radar" here and keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Mountaineers are 17-4 overall and 5-3 in league play, while Iowa State enters having lost five of its last six (9-12 overall.) Note that the Cyclones aren't the same team that made the NCAA Tournament last year, but they're still averaging 74.7 PPG, while allowing 72.2. WVU averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 61.3. 

The pick: Note though that Iowa State is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off two straight losses vs. a conference rivals (including 2-0 ATS this season), while WVU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range (including only 1-2 ATS this year.) No outright, but closer than expected.

9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Iowa State.

The set-up: Southern Illinois has won five straight and is 7-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, but I believe it'll finally have a letdown here vs. this hungry home side. Evansville is desperate beyond believe after opening conference play by going 0-10, most recently falling 80-68 to Northern Iowa. The Salukis are just 10-12 overall though and if not now, when for the Purple Aces? The Salukis average 63.3 points and it allows 60.8. Evansville averages 69.2 PPG and it allows 75.2. Yes, on paer this one favors SIU, but I think the visitors finally get caught looking past their opponent today. 

The pick: Note as well that SOuthern Illinois is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a road win, while Evansville is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 80 points or more (including 4-2 ATS this season.) I'm primarily a "situational" handicapper and this one falls into several of my systems. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville.

The set-up: Southern Illinois has won five straight and is 7-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, but I believe it'll finally have a letdown here vs. this hungry home side. Evansville is desperate beyond believe after opening conference play by going 0-10, most recently falling 80-68 to Northern Iowa. The Salukis are just 10-12 overall though and if not now, when for the Purple Aces? The Salukis average 63.3 points and it allows 60.8. Evansville averages 69.2 PPG and it allows 75.2. Yes, on paer this one favors SIU, but I think the visitors finally get caught looking past their opponent today. 

The pick: Note as well that SIU has seen the total go under the number in 24 of its last 35 after playing a road game, while Evansville has seen the total dip under in seven of ten vs. conference opponents already this season. With the home side expected to risk life and limb to get off the 0-10 losing streak, expect a slower-paced battle, where each possession is challenged. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER SIU/Evansville.

The set-up: Damian Lillard and the Blazers are red hot right now, as the star guard has helped propel his team to a 4-0 run of late. The Nuggets will be throwing everything they have at Lillard to slow him down and I think the guard finally takes an offensive step back here in the thin air of Denver. The Nuggets on the other hand beat both the Jazz and the Bucks, before then falling to a hungry Pistons team on the road in OT last time out. Portland does play with the double revenge factor here after losing both games to the Nuggets this season, but as mentioned off the top, this one has the feel of more of a "war" than a run and gun "shootout" in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Portland has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 26 off a win vs. a division rival (including in three of four this season), while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of nine already this season as a home favorite of six points or less. For all the reasons listed above, expect this one to stay under once its all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Blazers/Nuggets.

The set-up: Dallas beat the Rangers 5-2 last night, but I think it'll struggle on Long Island to find the back of the net vs. the stingy Islanders. Previous to last night's win the Stars beat the Devils 3-2 in OT on the road. It's difficult to win on the road and I think Dallas finally has a letdown here. The Isles on the other hand are eager to get back into the winners circle here after a 4-3 OT loss to Vancouver. Overall Dallas averages 2.59 GPG and it allows 2.49. Overall New York averages 2.86 GPG and it allows just 2.68. However note, not only do the Isles have the home ice advantage and the advantage of catching the Stars on the second game of a back-to-back, but they also play with "revenge" after falling 3-1 in Dallas earlier in the year. 

The pick: Despite the back-to-back road wins, I'll also point out that NY is just 40-44 (-13.8 units) in its last 84 non-conference games. The Isles on the other hand are 6-2 (+3.8 units) this season when playing with two days rest and 9-3 (+6.1 units) after allowing four or more goals in their previous outing. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Islanders.

The set-up: Duke is is coming off a 97-88 win and cover on the road over Syracuse, but I think it'll have its hands full here vs. this hungry BC side. Boston College is just 7-7 at home, but it comes in off an impressive 71-70 win over UNC and I have no reason not to believe that the Eagles can't carry over that confidence/momentum here. BC is playing its best basketball of the season and it's out to avenge a terrible 88-49 loss to Duke on December 31st. On paper the Blue Devils are clearly the better team. But BC's recent improvement in play, combined with these strong situational factors make the home side the correct call here in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Duke is a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite in teh 12.5 to 18 points range, while BC is a solid 5-2 ATS this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored 75 points or more in. I'm grabbing the points and expecting an all out battle until the end.

10* DESTRUCTION on Boston College.

The set-up: Enough is enough. After 11 straight losses, I look for the Wolves to risk life and limb to pull out this victory today. The Kings come in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers. The Wolves still have one of the best players in the league in Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins is putting up career best numbers. I look for these two to put their team on their backs tonight. The Kings have played only slightly better than the Wolves this year, but I think their young core struggles to keep up with this determined veteran Wolves team. 

The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 on the road, while the Kings are just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite this year and only 8-15 ATS at home overall. Grab the points.

10* play on the Wolves.

The set-up: I think the hungry 5-15 Idaho Vandals sneak in under the radar here vs. the 11-8 Sacramento State Hornets. Both teams come in on losing streaks. Most recently Sacramento State fell 59-54 to Eastern Washington. Idaho lost 77-72 on the road to Northern Arizona. 

The pick: Note that the Hornets are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games after scoring 55 points or less in their previous contest, while the Vandals are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss. Grab the points and expect an all out war until the final horn!

9* DESTRUCTION on Idaho.

The set-up: While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Bears hold a one game lead over Kansas with a perfect 8-0 conference record. K-State is only 2-6 in league play and it's to pull off the upset here. Baylor is 5-0 on the road and its been exceptional defensively, but the Bears look poised for a mental letdown here in my opinion, with bottom feeder Oklahoma State up next, BU has hit a very "vanilla" part of its schedule. 

The pick: K-State has played its best basketball of the year at home, going 8-4 at Bramlage Coliseum thus far. Additionally note that K-State is still a sharp 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a road loss. I'm grabbing the points and expecting an all out war until the final horn. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on K-State.

The set-up: The Knicks have won two of their last four, but I predict they'll have a predictable letdown here vs. this hungry Cavaliers team. Most recently New York beat the Pacers on the road. The Cavs have lost ten of their last 11, including three in a row. Kevin Love and company will be out for blood tonight. Also note that the Cavs play with revenge here, as NY is 2-1 in the season series thus far. 

The pick: Note as well the NY is just 11-13 ATS this year after covering in its prevoius game and only 11-14 ATS vs. clubs with losing records, while Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more. Look for the "hungrier" team to risk life and limb to get untracked.

8* play on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The set-up: I like Bradley Beal and the home side to throttle the Warriors here. Golden State broke a five-game losing streak with a rare road win in Cleveland, but I believe it'll struggle to keep pace with the high-tempo and hungry Wizards in the Nation's capital tonight. The Wiz have won four of seven and Beal is playing his best ball of the season and he's playing with a chip on his shoulder because of the All Star snub. Expect that trend to continue here vs. this hapless Warriors defense. 

The pick: Note as well that Golden State is still just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 on the raod, while Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last seven at home. Look for Washington to go up early and to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. Lay the points.

8* play on the Washington Wizards.

The set-up: Carolina came out flat to open up the second half, falling 4-3 at home to Las Vegas. But now Hurricanes catch the over-acheiving Canucks playing the second game of a back-to-back. Vancouver is on long Island to play the defensive minded Islanders on Saturday and I think the team comes in predictably tired here in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Carolina also plays with revenge here after falling 1-0 in Vancouver back on December 12th. Also note that the Hurricanes hit the road for a difficult Western road swing after this, starting off vs. the defending champs in St. Louis on Tuesday. Considering all of the above situational factors working in favor of Carolina, I do in fact believe this line could/should be much larger. 

6* DESTRUCTION on the Carolina Hurricanes.

The set-up: Detroit's slide has been brutal and while it's playing through injuries, I still believe it'll have more than enough in the tank here to push the visiting side to brink. Detroit comes in off another loss at home to Toronto as a 4.5 point underdog, while Denver knocked off the East leading Bucks in its last contest. And with a game at home on Tuesday vs. red hot Portland, who would fault the visitors for coming in complacent and looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today?! 

The pick: Additionally note that Denver is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference road games after scoring 125 points in a win in its last game, while Detroit is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. I wouldn't in fact be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I'm grabbing the points.

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST is on Detroit Pistons.

The set-up: After two straight victories including a 2-0 win over Man U at Old Trafford most recently, I look for Burnley to take a step back here. The Gunners won't be lacking for motivation today either, as they look to move a little closer to the Champions League berth. Also note that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang returns from suspension for the visitors today. 

The pick: Burnley's been "playing over its head" and I think it comes back down to Earth here. Look for the Gunners to push the pace and be the aggressors. All things considered, I believe that this is the very definition of "great line value." Play on Arsenal to win in regulation.

10* BANKROLL BUILDER on Arsenal. 

The set-up: Scoring is up in the NHL this season. That said, I have a hard time seeing the Senators mustering much of an offensive attack after falling 5-3 at home just last night to the Capitals. Toronto comes in off a strong 5-3 road win in Dallas, but I think home side gets out and controls the pace of this one tonight. 

The pick: Note as well that Ottawa has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 in the second game of a back to back after losing by two goals in the first, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine home games following a road win by two goals or more. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Sens/Leafs.

The set-up: I think Dayton is going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. Dayton has won ten in a row, but the Rams aren't going to roll over here. Most recently Fordham fell 62-52 to St. Bonaventure. Dayton comes off a 73-69 win over Duquesne. On paper, clearly the Flyers are the better team, but everything points to this being a letdown/trap in my opinion. 

The pick: Note that Fordham is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 conference road games as an underdog in the +23.5 to +27.5 points range, while Dayton is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine conference home games following a nine games or more SU unbeaten streak. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a solid cover.

10* play on Fordham.

The set-up: The Wolves are out of playoff contention, but I think they'll put up a fight here after falling in OT at home to the Kings. Note that LA is also coming off a 20 points loss to the Kings. Karl Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins both continue to play hard for Minnesota and I believe they'll keep their team in this one late. Kawhi Leonard didn't play last time out and there's a chance he won't play here either. The Clippers are not at 100% health and I think they're going to struggle with consistency again here. 

The pick: Also note that the Wolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following an OT home loss, while the Clippers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine home games following a 20 points or more SU loss. Grab the points, expecting a tight battle.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The set-up: Troy got the better of Georgia State at home 75-65 two weeks ago. The Trojans though are in bounce back mode after an 86-57 loss to Georgia Southern. The Panthers' lone loss in their last five was against the Trojans. I think the "revenge" factor gets thrown out the window here, as Troy is still the "hungrier" team. 

The pick: Overall the Trojans have three victories over top five teams in the conference. Additionally note that Troy is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 conference road games as a double-digit underdog, while Georgia State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a double-digit same season road loss. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Troy.

The set-up: The Rebels are hungry here. After breaking a six-game slide, they then lost in double OT at home to Auburn. LSU though comes in complacent here in my opinion, as it's won nine in a row, most recently over Alabama. Also note that this is a revenge game, as LSU posted the 80-76 road win in the reverse fixture. 

The pick: Additionally note that Ole Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games as a double digit dog and off an OT home loss, while LSU is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a six games or more unbeaten streak. I'm not calling for the outright, but everything points to this one being closer than what this spread would suggest. 

8* play on Mississippi.

The set-up: These teams don't play a lot of defense most nights. The Mavs have lost three of their last five though and they come in off a terrible performance at home, giving up a season high 133 points in a loss to the lowly Suns:

"This team has done so many things to get people excited about it and really worked hard to get into a solid position at this point in time," coach Rick Carlisle said. "A performance like this is just tough. Nights like this do happen, but this was extreme."

Suffice it to say, I expect the visiting side to double down on the defensive end tonight, as clearly the last thing it'll want to do is to get into a shootout on the road with the Rockets. 

Houston enters off a road loss in Portland. 

The pick: note as well that Dallas has seen teh total go under the number in three of four already this season after a loss by ten points or more, while Houston has seen the total go under in ten of 16 already this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Mavericks/Rockets.

The set-up: This is each team's first game back after the All Star break. Pittsburgh lost 3-0 to Philadelphia in each team's final game before the break, making this a prime "revenge" scenario for the home side. Note that the Pens are 18-5-3 at home this season, while the Flyers are just 10-13-2 on the road. 

The pick: Pittsburgh is 9-1 in its last ten vs. clubs with winning records, while Philly is just 1-4 in its last five on the road as an underdog in the -135 to -165 range. All things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: I think the 14-4 Yale Bulldogs get caught looking past the 6-12 Columbia Lions. Columbia is 1-1 in Conference play after falling to Cornell at home last time out 62-50. Yale comes in complacent here though in my opinion after four straight wins, including starting conference play 2-0. Columbia averages 66.8 PPG and it allows 69.1. Yale averages 75.7 PPG and it allows 62.7. 

The pick: Note though that Columbia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Yale is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 18 points range. This is a letdown spot for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Conversely, the Lions will be eager to pull of the upset here and while that likely won't happen, everything points to a more competitive battle than what this spread suggests. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Columbia.

The set-up: I think CSUB comes in under the radar here vs. WAC-leading NMSU. The Runners are 4-2 to start WAC play. NMSU is 6-0 in WAC play. Note though that three of the Aggies last four wins have come by single digits. Teams regularly reserve 

The pick: The Roadrunners posted their second OT win of the season last Thursday by knocking off Utah Valley 58-59. CSUB then lost 86-79 at home to Seattle. I believe the hungry visitors do indeed push the home side to the limit and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright, everything points to this one being a competitive battle until the end. Grab the points.

8* play on Bakersfield.

The set-up: North Dakota State is 14-7 and I think it'll have its hands full tonight vs. the hungry 5-13 Western Illinois Leathernecks. This is a big time revenge game for the desperate home side. The Bison have won 14 of the last 15, including all three meetings last year. 

The pick: Note as well that North Dakota State is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a home win against a conference rival, while WIU is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, including a sharp 4-1 ATS this year. Expect a battle until the final moments and grab all these points.

10* play on Western Illinois.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs of late, but I look for that trend to finally go the other way this evening. Philly has won six of its last seven, including two straight at home. The Hawks have been one of the worst teams in the league and they enter off a loss in Toronto. Most recently the 76ers beat the Warriors 115-104 at home and I have a hard time seeing the Hawks producing much offense tonight either (they only average 108.8 PPG.) Atlanta catches a break here though as well, as Philadelphia likes to slow the pace down on offense, a unit which averages only 108.5 PPG, ranked 23rd overall. 

The pick: Note as well that Philly has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 off a home win this year, while ATL has seen the total dip under in 11 of its last 17 in revenging a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less. This number is a tad high.

9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER 76ers/Hawks.

The set-up: Toronto's won two in a row, but it'll have to be cautious here to not get caught looking past they lowly Cavs tonight, to their game in Detroit tomorrow. That's then followed by a couple nights off before a home game vs. the lowly Bulls. After two straight victories, the Raptors need to be careful here. The Raptors are one of the best on the defensive end and they'll look to double down tonight vs. Cleveland, which only averages 105.3 PPG this season. 

The pick: Toronto has also already seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine after a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Cleveland has seen the total fall under the number in both games it's played in this year after scoring 105 points or more in four or more straight games. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely think this number is high.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Raptors/Cavaliers.

The set-up: Marshall won't be lacking for motivation here as it's lost four of its last five. The Herd though are 3-5 in league play and they'll look to get off the schneid in this very winnable game. FIU was on a three-game win streak, but it enters off a humbling 75-49 loss to Charlotte. Marshall averages 74.6 PPG and it allows 72, while FIU averages 79.6 PPG and it allows 73.4. These teams are evenly matched, but I think Marshall is the "hungrier" side and I believe FIU is collectively rattled after its last poor performance. 

The pick: Note as well that Marshall is already 5-2 ATS this year as a road dog or pick, while FIU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a road loss by 20 points or more. I won't be surprised by an outright victory obviously, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

8* play on Marshall.

The set-up: Ashleigh Barty has the entire continent on her side otnight and I expect the heavy hitter to advance in two sets. Barty won her first title event at the French Open in 2019. Sofia Kenin is no push over, as the 21 year old was voted as the WTA's most improved players last year. 

The pick: But if recent history is any precedence, then Barty has to be loving her chances today, as these two have met five times in the past and she's 4-1 in those contests. In front of a packed Rod Laver Arena, I think that Barty gets the job done quickly today. 

10* WTA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER 21.5 -125 from Pinnacle.

The set-up: Toronto can beat any team on any given night. Bust so can the Stars. Ultimately I believe we're getting great line value on this under-rated home team. Both teams came out of the break and posted a victory. Toronto's been decent offensively, averaging 3.60 GPG, but it's had to be, as it allows the eighth highest amount in the defensive end by conceding 3.26 GPG. Dallas is 16-7-2 at home this year. The Stars only average 2.57 GPG, but they only allow 2.43. 

The pick: Dallas plays with revenge here, as it's lost eight of the last ten in this series, including four of the last five in front of the home town crowd. This is the final home game before an Eastern road swing for Dallas, making tonight's game even more important. Toronto on the other hand can't help in getting caught looking ahead to a night off, followed by a "cream puff" at home vs. the Senators. I think Toronto's vastly over-priced in this one.

10* NON-CONF BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Stars.

The set-up: The Bulls look poised for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, most recently topping the Spurs. Chicago's poor defense catches a bit of a break today, as the Pacers' aren't the fastest paced team. The Bulls offense though averages only a paltry 105.7 PPG. Also note that Chicago's main offensive weapon Zach LaVine injured his ankle last time out and he's been listed as questionable here. Indiana only allows 107.1 PPG. Victor Oladipo finally makes his return to the Pacers' line-up after more than a year off with a knee injury and while his presence will benefit the team over the long-term, I think it'll throw a monkey-wrench into things on the offensive side of the court to begin with. 

The pick: Note as well that Chicago has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge two straight losses vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Indiana has seen the toal dip below the posted number in four of five this year when playing with two days rest and in seven of ten vs. the division. This number is a tad high considering all of the above information.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Bulls/Pacers.

The set-up: The Spartans and Wildcats played on December 18th and MSU hung on for the 77-72 win. I expect a similarily hard-fought affair tonight as well. MSU is tied for first in the Big Ten with a 7-2 record, while Northwestern is just 1-8 in league play. Note though that the Wildcats have faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country according to BPI. Most recently the Wildcats fell 71-59 to the Buckeyes. Overall NW averages 66.3 PPG and it allows 67.6. The Spartans lost 67-63 in Indiana, then bounced back with a 70-52 win over Minnesota. MSU averages 77.1 PPG and it allows 63.2. 

The pick: On paper MSU is the better team, but Northwestern comes in as the much "hungrier" side this evening. Note that none of the Wildcats' eight losses in conference play have come by more than 14 points. Additionally note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog of 13 points or more. I believe the home side leaves the back door open just enough for desperate visiting team to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Northwestern.

The set-up: The Blues are off a 3-1 loss in Vancouver just last night and clearly they'll be "hungry" and "eager" to avoid the back-to-back losses, but Calgary plays with revenge on its home ice and it's well rested after the All Star break. Despite anything else that's going on on the ice in this one, these three situational factors are all clearly working heavily in favor of the home side tonight. 

The pick: Additionally note that Calgary is 4-0 in its last four vs. the Western Conference, while St. Louis is now 0-5 in its last five vs. clubs with winning records. This is a great price on Calgary considering all of the different favorable factors working in its favor listed above. In fact, I'll go so far as to say that this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Flames. 

The set-up: Off a rare double-digit home win over the Wizards, I think the struggling Hawks take a step back on the offensive end in this difficult road venue. Yes the Hawks allow a ghastly 117.8 PPG, but Toronto plays at a slower pace this year anyways. After Trae Young, Atlanta gets pretty thin. The Raptors are getting healthier as we head towards the All Star break, but this is a game in which they can "control" from start to finish without too much worry. From a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 15 in trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 off a road victory. The situation and the numbers/trends all point to a lower-scoring under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Hawks/Raptors. 

The set-up: Nebraska is 7-13 and I think it'll have its hands full here with this determined 11-8 Michigan team. After starting 7-0, the Wolverines have gone just 8-4 since. The Wolverines had plenty of turn-over from last season and they've been dealing with injuries, but Nebraska is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. 

The pick: Note that Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six after a loss by six points or less and 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, while Nebraska is already just 4-6 ATS at home this season and only 4-6 ATS this year after covering the spread in its previous game. I'm laying the points and expecting the "hungrier" team to deliver tonight.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan.

The set-up: The Vandals won't be lacking for motivation today as they've dropped four in a row. The Southern Utah Thunderbirds can empathize, as they've lost two of their last three, including a crushing OT loss to EWU last time out. The "revenge factor" comes into play here as well for the home side, who has lost three straight in this series, including two in a row at home. 

The pick: Southern Utah averages 67 PPG and it allows 64. The Vandals have a stout defense as well which holds the opposition to just under 38 percent shooting on the year. Southern Utah is just 4-5 ATS this season as a favorite, while Idaho is 9-7 ATS as an underdog. In a contest which I envision being decided late, I'm grabbing as many points as I can.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Idaho.

The set-up: I think Luka Doncic will single-handidly will his team to victory here as he tries to make some sense of Kobe Bryant's death. The entire NBA World is in shock still and Doncic had a special early and recent relationship with Black Mamba. The Mavs are coming off a loss in Utah as well. OKC has won five straight and I think it's poised for a letdown here finally though. Also note that the Mavs play with the revenge factor after falling 106-101 here earlier in the season. Overall Dallas averages 116.6 PPG and it allows 108.1. The Thunder though average 110.8 PPG and they allow 109.8. 

The pick: Additionally note that Dallas is still a sharp 7-3 ATS this year as a road underdog and 5-2 ATS in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite this season, while OKC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games. Everything points to a big bounce back for this potent Mavs' offense in my opinion. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: I'm going to suggest laying the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. This is a game which I believe will be decided late, or even in extra time. The Sens are 1-5-4 in their last ten games, while the Devils are 4-5-1. 

The pick: The edge tonight really comes in the numbers/stats/trends though, as note that the Sens are just 1-5 in their last six as a home favorite vs. an Eastern Conference opponent, while the Devils are a solid 5-2 in their last seven when playing with three or more days rest.

6* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New Jersey Devils

The set-up: While I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Orlando has lost 12 straight in this series, so motivation to break that slide is definitely working in their favor as well. The Clippers come in content after winning five of their last six, while the Magic have lost four of their last five. Most recently LA beat the Heat 122-117. LA averages 112.7 PPG and it allows 106.7. The Magic though are desperate here after a listless 109-98 to the Celtics on Friday. The Magic are averaging 105.8 PPG and they're allowing 106.8. 

The pick: Orlando's early offensive numbers are skewed though because of early injusry issues, but there's no excuses today. Note as well that the Clippers are already a poor 7-10 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more, while Orlando is a perfect 2-0 ATS off two or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite. With a game "on the road" at the Lakers on Tuesday, I believe the visitors rest players and get caught looking ahead as well. Grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Orlando Magic.

The set-up: Houston is 13-9 on the road this year and it comes in riding a two-game win streak. Denver is 17-6 at home and it won last time out. I look for these two Western Conference hopefuls to get out and push the pace from start to finish. The Rockets have not been great defensively, allowing 114.2 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by pouring in 118.7 PPG. Five players score in double-digits for the visitors. Denver plays at a slower pace, averaging 109.3 PPG and allowing 106. But un-like Houston, the strength of the team lies in its depth with six players scoring in double figures.

The pick: Houston scored 121 points vs. Denver just a few nights ago and I believe we'll see another higher-scoring shootout in this one as well. With the visitors pushing the pace, look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Nuggets.

The set-up: I think 7-11 Fordham sneaks in under the radar here and finds a way to keep this one competitive vs. 14-5 St. Louis. The Rams come in with momentum as well, as they broke a five-game slide with a win over George Washington last time out. Saint Louis however enters suscepitble after two straight losses in my opinion. The Rams have struggled offensively this year, but the defense has been sharp in allowing only 61 PPG. The Billikens allow 66. And note that over its last four games Saint Louis has averaged just 66 PPG. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Billikens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Fordham is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games following a SU/ATS win/cover. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham.

The set-up: Two teams hungry for a win are going to push each other from start to finish in my opinion and ultimately I believe that this frenetic pace will help in pushing this total well above the posted number. Washington is 12-8 and Colorado is 15-4. The Huskies come to town off two straight losses, but coming by a a combined four points, most recently falling 67-66 to Utah. Overall the Huskies are averaging 70.4 PPG and they're allowing 62.8. The Buffaloes have won three of four. Overall they average 70.4 PPG and they allow 61.7. 

The pick: Note though that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 road games after back-to-back losses, while Colorado has seen the total fly over in six of its last seven after having won three out of its last four SU. On paper this looks like it would be a defensive affair, but I believe these Pac 12 contendors push the tempo. THis is a very low total and I believe it flies over sooner, rather than later. Play the over.

10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Huskies/Buffalos.

The set-up: Dallas is a different team this year than in season's past, but it's still significant to note that it's lost six straight at Smart Home Arena. The Mavs come to town having won five of their last six games. Not to be outdone though, Utah enters on a three-game win streak. This is the first time these team's have met up this season, but I'm expecting an all out war from start to finish. Dallas comes in off a 133-125 road win in Porltand, but I can't see the Mavs producing like that in this tough road venue. The Jazz throttled Golden State last time out 129-96.

The pick: Note as well that Dallas has in fact seen the total dip under the number in ten of its last 14 after allowing 110 points or more in four straight games, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this season after a blowout win by 20 points or more. Everything points to this one being more of a defensive battle, than a high-scoring shootout. 

10* TOTAL SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Mavericks/Jazz. 

The set-up: The Citadel Bulldogs return home to start a two-game home stand. The Citadel is 54-47 all time vs. the Paladins in Charleston. The Citadel play with revenge here as well after Furman took both games last year. Furman is the better team on paper, but after its win over Samford, I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight. 

The pick: Also note that Furman is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road and off a victory and as a favorite of ten points or more, while Citadel is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the ten to 15.5 points range and off a loss. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Grab the points.

10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Citadel.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the conditions are now right for a lower-scoring battle. The Kings will be hungry here to get off the schneid after six straight losses, including a 20 point loss in Detroit last time out. The Bulls are coming off a win at home, but just like their counterparts today, consistency from game to game is a major issue for them this season. Neither plays great defense, but each comes in believing they can win this game. I expect each to double down on the defensive end this evening as they try to earn an elusive win. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Kings have seen the total go under the number in 18 of their last 26 as a road dog of six points or less, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in six of nine already this season after scoring 115 points or more in its previous outing. Considering all of the above information, I do indeed feel that this number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Kings/Bulls.

The set-up: BOston is 11-9 away from TD Garden and it enters on a two-game win streak. Orlando is 13-9 at home this year and it's looking to bounce back off a loss. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 105.7. Orlando averages 104 PPG and it concedes a league best 104 as well. Orlando has gotten healthier over the last month and that's seen the team have a dramatic turnaround in play across the board. The Magic though allow only 100 PPG at home, while the Celtics' offensive average drops to 108 on the road. 

The pick: Additionally note that Boston is a poor 2-4 ATS this year already after two or more consecutive home victories, while Orlando is a sharp 3-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston is dealing with injuries right now as well. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive home victory.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Orlando Magic.

The set-up: Yale is 13-4 and its on the road to take on a hungry 7-7 Brown Bears team. Brown plays with revenge here, as it fell at Yale in mid January by a score of 70-56. Yale comes in off an 89-75 road win at Howard, but I think the Bulldogs will have their hands full tonight. This is a great situational play in my opinion, as Brown has had an extended period off, having not played since the loss at Yale. 

The pick: On paper Yale has the advantage, but note that it's just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing a game as a road favorite, while Brown is 4-2 ATS in its last six revenging a road loss of ten points or more and 4-1 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. I think the outright upset is definitely possible, but in the end I'm going to grab the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Brown.

The set-up: Clearly the Nets have a lot of issues to resolve. They've been a much better home team than on the road though and they won't be lacking for motivation tonight facing the Lakers. LA comes to town off a come from behind win in New York just last night and it could very likely be sitting key pieces of its rotation in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Situationally I believe this one sets up great for the hungrier home side. 

The pick: But note as well that the Lakers are still just 8-9 ATS in non-conference games this year and only 40-49 ATS in their last 89 vs. clubs with losing records, while Brooklyn is already 6-3 ATS this season as a home underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter." 

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Brooklyn Nets.

The set-up: FIU is 13-6 and after two straight victories, I think it comes in a tiny bit complacnet here vs. 7-12 ODU, which enters off two straight losses. FIU plays at a fast pace, averaging 81 PPG, but its defense is horrible. The Monarchs are coming off a tough 66-62 loss to Charlotte. ODU's defense has been fantastic though, ranked 42nd in the league overall. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that the Monarchs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home, while the Panthers just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog after back-to-back victories. I'm laying the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Old Dominion.

The set-up: This is a highly anticpated game in the round of 24. The Wolves are filled with confidence and I look for that momentum to get carried over here after a 3-2 win over Southampton at St. Mary's stadium. Wolverhampton was down two scores as well in that one. 

The pick: The Liverpool Reds however come in off a 2-0 win over Mancheseter United and they'll also be out to keep the foot on the gas here with Man City and Leicester directly behind them in the standings. The Wolves are tough to beat on their own field and they will push Liverpool from start to finish. Look for this pace to result in a higher-scoring "over." 

10* PREMIER LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Liverpool/Wolverhamtpon

The set-up: Winnipeg came out flat in its 4-1 loss in Carolina last night, but it'll look to bounce back strong here in its final game before the All Star break. The Jets fall to 14-11-2 on the road. Columbus is 15-9-2 at home and it's 8-2 in its last ten and 5-0 in its last five. Columbus is fired up here to end the first half on a big win streak and Winnipeg is anxious to bounce back after last night's collapse. Situationally this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout in my opinion.  

The pick: Note as well that Winnipeg has seen the total go over the number in 14 of 20 non-conference games this season, while CBJ has seen the total sail over in three of its last four in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Everything points this one sailing over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Jets/Jackets.

The set-up: I'm expecting an all out brawl until the end in this one. However, I expect much more of a "chess match," than a wide open run and gun "shootout" between these two heated rivals. These teams have both been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but in two games this year, each contests total combined points would have fallen well below tonight's posted number. Both have won on their home floor, with Toronto prevailing 101-96 in November and Philadelphia responding with a 110-104 win in December. Both enter on four game SU win streaks as well. 

The pick: The "under" is 5-1 the last six in this series North of the border. Toronto has the league's second best defense and neither side likes to play at a very fast pace. Considering all of the above situational and trend based factors listed above, I do indeed feel that this O/U line is high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER 76ers/Raptors.

The set-up: The Marist Red Foxes are after their second straight victory after getting the better of Iona 83-73. Matt Herasme had 17 points and 11 boards in the victory. It was a break out game for Marist, as it set season highs for field goal percentage, points scored, three-pointers made, three-point percentage, assists, rebounds and free throws made. The Manhattan Jaspers had won four of five to open league play before then falling 65-58 to Monmouth on Saturday. 

The pick: Manhattan is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after playing two straight home games (including 0-2 ATS this year), while Marist is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game. The Red Foxes come in off an inspiring win and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. That said, grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Marist.

The set-up: These teams are similar. Neither plays great defense and each has an above average offense. Each is filled with plenty of offensive talent as well. Both teams are coming off high-scoring victories, but I believe that the stage is now finally set for more of a defensive affair between these two top Western Conference teams. 

The pick: The trends support this theory as well, as note that the Clippers have seen the total go under the number in five of their last seven when playing with two days rest and in all seven of their games this season as a road underdog, while Dallas has seen the total dip under the number in four of its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think each team doubles down defensively tonight to try and earn this victory.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks.

The set-up: This game will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1 and I'm expecting an all out war. The Terps are 14-4, but I believe they'll have a fight on their hands today. In fact note, Maryland is 0-4 in true road games this year. The Terps have not let an opponent exceed 70 points in league play so far, but they come in averaging just 71.2 PPG. Northwestern is just 6-11 and it'll have a big opportunity to snap its frustration with a quality win this evening. Easier said than done, but note that the Wildcats do in fact have two wins over Top 100 teams and six of their last seven losses have been by single digits. Northwestern's offense catches a break today facing the slower paced Terrapins.

The pick: Maryland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Northwestern is 8-3 ATS this season as an underdog. This one has "nail-biter" written all over it, so grab the points.

10* play on Northwestern.

The set-up: Akron is 4-1 ATS in its last five, but it comes to town off a ten-point home loss to Toledo last time out. Miami Ohio comes in hungrier here though after dropping four of its last five, including falling by nine at Ball State last time out. These two teams are always competitive. Miami Ohio though plays with revenge here as Akron has taken the last two between the schools, both SU and ATS. 

The pick: But note that Miami Ohio is was gone 4-1 SU at home the last five in this series, including 5-0 ATS. Akron is the better team on paper, but Miami Ohio is the hungrier and more desperate revenge-minded team on the floor. Grab the points.

8* play on Miami Ohio.

The set-up: I like the home side to pull off the upset here. However, I'm going to recommend to grab the points instead of playing on the money line. The Shockers have suddenly lost back-to-back games and I think the hungry Bulls will take advantage of this now reeling visiting side. USF won't be lacking for motivation here either as it enters off a 55-54 road loss vs. UCF. Note that USF won this game at home last year by a score of 54-41. The Bulls struggle offensively, but they make up for it on the defensive end. 

The pick: Note as well that USF is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Wichita State is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite. South Florida's last three losses have come by a combined eight points. The stage is set for the outright, but as stated off the top, I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on USF.

The set-up: Chelsea beat Arsenal 2-1 on December 29th and I like it to duplicate that feat in regulation today. Arsenal has struggled with consistency all season and it enters off a poor draw with Sheffield. Arsenal has just two wins out of its last six and its place in the top flight league is in jeopardy. Revenge is a factor I always take into consideration, but Chelsea can ill afford to look past its opponent today after inexplicably falling 1-0 to Newcastle last time out. 

The pick: While Chelsea enters in farily good health though, Arsenal is ravaged by injury, with Lucas Torreira, Calum Chambers, Kieran Tierney and Hector Bellerin all out. I think Frank Lampard has Chelsea in a great spot to bounce back here in regulation.

10* EPL GAME OF THE YEAR on Chelsea.

The set-up: The Pelicans have been more competitive of late. Note though that after playing to ten consecutive "overs," I finally look for a bit of an offensive letdown tonight in this difficult road venue. Most recently the Pels fell 133-130 at home to the Clippers. The Grizzlies will have to be cautious here to not "look past" their lowly opponent tonight, as their seven-game win skein is on the line. Both teams are above average offensively and below average defensively, but the overall situation that each finds itself in lends itself to more of a defensive battle in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that NOs has seen the total go under the number in two of three already this season after scoring 130 points or more in its previous game, while Memphis has seen the total dip below the posted number in 23 of its last 36 vs. the division. All signs point to this one falling well below this sky high number.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Pelicans/Grizzlies.

The set-up: On paper the Bucks are the much better team here. At 38-6 though, I think the home side comes out a bit complacent here vs. this 16-28 Bulls team. Chicago though does come in with some momentum after taking down the Cavaliers 118-116 last time out. The Bucks average 119.5 PPG and the Bulls average only 105.8. Chicago though had key players injured again to start the season, so this offense is only finally starting to come together. Both however sport similar defensive numbers, with the Bulls allowing only 107.8 PPG, while the Bucks concede 106.9. 

The pick: Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more, while Milwaukee is just 11-14 ATS already this season after three or more SU victories. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: Charlotte is 10-6, but it comes in off an 80-63 loss to WKU. A game vs. 6-12 ODU sets up as a look-ahead/let-down spot for the 49ers though in my opinion. And ODU definitely won't be lacking for motivation here after it fell 68-67 to Marshall last time out. 

The pick: Note as well that Charlotte is a terrible 11-19 ATS in its last 30 as a road dog (including only 2-3 ATS this season), while ODU is a strong 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion.

The set-up: The Packers jumped out to an early lead vs. the Seahawks in the Divisional Round and then had to hold on for dear life for the victory. Green Bay took the foot off the gas, but it won't have that luxury this weekend in hostile territory. The Packers lost to the 49ers in the regular season, but I believe Aaron Rodgers and company have much more than just a "punchers chance" at winning this one outright. The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 last weekend. San Francisco has the home field advantage and the slightly better defense, but Green Bay still has the clear advantage at the QB position in my opinion. Jimmy Garropolo is putting together a great season, but would anyone out there claim that he's solely responsible for getting his team to this point? Rodgers' vast experience gives the Packers the upper-hand at the QB position in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Green Bay is already 3-1 ATS as an underdog thi syear, while San Fran is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight wins vs. the spread, including only 1-3 ATS this season. Grab the points, expect a battle until the final moments.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Packers.

The set-up: I think 6-11 Illinois State is the "hungrier" team here. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question with a spread like this, but I'm going to grab the points in the end. Most recently Illinois State fell 84-74 to Drake to fall to 1-4 in Conference play. Overall the Redbirds average 67.2 PPG and they allow 70.6. Loyola Chicago averages 70 PPG and it allows 61. On paper and as stated above, this one favors the visitors. But I believe the Ramblers come in complacent after two straight wins. 

The pick: Note as well that Loyola Chicago is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games following a two games or more unbeaten ATS/SU streak, while Illinois State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games following a loss by ten or more points and as an underdog of four points or less. Everything points to the slight upset, grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Illinois State.

The set-up: Miami looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its impressive road win over the Thunder, while I expect the Spurs to risk life and limb here for a victory after getting embarrassed at home by the Hawks in a close loss. Miami is at home tomorrow night as well to the Kings, so I believe this does in fact set up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors as well. The Spurs are now below .500 and they can ill afford to look past anyone. San Antonio has a game tomorrow night in Phoenix vs. an equally as desperate Suns team, making tonight's contest that much more imporant for the home side here. 

The pick: Note that Miami is just 4-5 ATS this year as a road favorite and only 4-5 ATS this season off a road win, while San Antonio is a sharp 7-3 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. Look for the home side to pull away down the stretch.

10* NON-CONFERENCE BEST OF THE BEST on the San Antonio Spurs.

The set-up: The Titans have been giant killers in the second half of the season. Certainly that's been the case in the Playoffs so far as well, knocking off both the Patriots and the Ravens. The Chiefs mounted an incredible come from behind blowout victory over Texans last weekend, but at one point there was considerable panic from all KC fans. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is scary. But the Titans counter that with great defensive play and by running the ball a lot while their offense, behind the bruising play of RB Derrick Henry. 

The pick: In fact, Tennessee exposed the Chiefs' weaknesses already this year with a 35-32 win in the regular season, as Henry went for 188 yards and two TD's on 23 carries. The Titans are excuting at a very high level and they haven't been "beating themselves." It's KC that's going to have to play another perfect game here if it wants to pull off another blowout win and I don't see that happening. I believe we're going to see a battle until the final moments, a "chess match" instead of a "track meet." Note as well that Tennessee has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road dog, while KC has seen the total dip under in both games that it's played in after scoring 40 points or more in its last game. This number is too high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Titans/Chiefs.

The set-up: Boston won 4-1 at home over Pittsburgh, but I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game tonight. Pittsburgh comes in fired up, off a 2-1 win over the Red Wings on Friday, with captain Sidney Crosby potting the winner in his second game back after a month off with injury. Overall the Bruins average 3.33 GPG and they allow 2.49. The Pens average 3.35 GPG and they allow 2.71. 

The pick: True their game went "under" the number on Thursday, but note that the total has flown over the number in five of these team's last six vs. each other in Pittsburgh and in ten of their last 13 overall. All signs point to this one flying over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Bruins/Penguins.

The set-up: Both teams are "hungry" for a win here. Sacramento has lost three in a row and they're just 7-13 on the road. After falling 127-123 to the Mavs last time out, I believe the Kings double down on the defensive end this evening. The Jazz are 15-3 at home and they're 9-1 in their last ten overall. Utah's back on track, but note that they'll be out for some defensive redemption here after losing 138-132 to the lowly Pelicans in OT last time out. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that the Pels have seen the total dip under in nine of their last 12 as a road dog, while the Jazz have seen the total go under in 11 of their last 15 in revenging a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less and in 12 of their last 16 after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. This number is a tad high.

9* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Kings/Jazz.

The set-up: In the final game before the All Star break, I believe Buffalo will simply "go through the motions" this evening. The Sabres are just 8-13-4 on the road this year, while the Predators are 10-9-4 at home. Buffalo comes in on a win streak, while Nashville enters on a losing streak. This sets up perfectly for the home side here in my opinion. Buffalo is ranked 22nd in the league on offense on the road and 19th defensively, while Nashville is 28th in goals scored at home and 17th defensively. 

The pick: Note though that Buffalo is a poor 2-7 in its last nine on the road following a victory and as an underdog in the +150 to +180 range, while Nashville is 4-1 in its last five home games following a loss by two goals or more. Considering everything, I have no issues at all in laying this larger price.

9* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators.

The set-up: The Knights made a coaching change and then won 4-2 in Ottawa. That game was a "push" as far as the total was concerned. The Habs come in off a 4-1 win over Philadelphia, that game also stayed "under" the number. The Habs are going to have their hands full with a Knights offense which averages 3.04 GPG on the road this season, but they'll have their opportunities as well vs. a defense which allows 3.02. Montreal averages 3.02 GPG at home and it allows 3.10. Add up these numbers any way you want, but it clearly points to this total as being too low today in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that LV has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after a two-game unbeaten streak and coming off a victory of two goals or more, while Montreal has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 11 home games following a victory of three goals or more. All things considered, I believe this number is low.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Knights/Habs.

The set-up: These teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the "situation" that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with strong O/U trends that each has exhibited in this spot, both point to the "under" as the being the correct call this afternoon. This is the start of a six-game strip for the Clippers. These teams have already met twice and each has won on its home floor. Both games went over the number. Both teams come in on extended win streaks. Note though that each team is playing without key players today, as Paul George won't suit up for the Clippers and JJ Reddick and Jrue Holiday are out for New Orleans. 

The pick: Note that the Clippers have seen the total go under the number in ten of 14 already this season after a non-conference game and in seven of ten after a home win by ten points or more, while the Pelicans have seen the total dip under in both games they've played in this year after scoring 130 points or more in their previous outing. All things considered, this number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Pelicans.

The set-up: Georgia State is 13-6 and it's won three straight. I think it gets caught looking past this desperate Troy home side, which has lost two in a row and five of its last six. Note though that Georgia State is just 4-6 in true road games this season. Georgia State has the better offense, but note that Troy is 5-4 at home. Also note that each team won its home floor in last year's season series. 

The pick: Note as well the Georiga State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following three game SU/ATS unbeaten streak, while Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after a three-games or more losing streak and as an underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final moments. 

8* SLAM-DUNK on Troy.

The set-up: After falling to Kansas to open league play, WVU has rattled off thee straight Big 12 victories and it enters at 14-2 overall. K-State comes in as the "hungrier" team though as it's lost nine of its last 12. The Wildcats will be looking to get off the schneid here and earn their first conference victory of the year. The Wildcats are sharp defensively as well, holding the opposition to just 61.8 PPG on average. WVU averages only 72.1 PPG and I believe it'll have its hands full with his now desperate home side. 

The pick: Additionally note that WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten conference road games after three or more SU/ATS victories, while K-State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more losses and as an underdog of five points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this contest to be decided in the final moments.

10* CASH-BOMB on Kansas State.

The set-up: Elon comes in under the radar here, but hungry as ever after losing four of its last five games. Most recently the Phoenix fell 63-41 to Drexel. Delaware has lost four of five, most recently falling 77-68 to William and Mary. The Blue Hens are the better team on paper, but I think they get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. 

The pick: Note as well that Delaware is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 following a SU loss, while Elon is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.

9* DESTRUCTION on Elon.

The set-up: Dallas plays with revenge here after falling 121-119 in Portland earlier in the season. The Blazers have been more "miss" than "hit" this season, but after two straight victories and playing against this revenge minded home side, I believe Portland reverts to its usual sub-par self. The Mavs have looked better now that Luka Doncic is fully recovered from his ankle injury, as the Mavs enter this one off three straight victories. Doncic had 25 points, 15 boards and 17 assists in the most recent 127-123 win over the Kings. 

The pick: Note as well that Dallas is 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing SU record, while Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in a SU win in its previous outing. After a big win at Houston, I look for the Blazers to stumble in this difficult road venue. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: I think the 9-6 Rider Broncs get caught lookin past the 4-11 Niagara Purple Eagles tonight. The Broncs come in off a 69-52 win over a weak Marist team, while Niagara enters off a much-needed 70-69 victory over Iona at home in its latest action. Rider has so far averages 72.9 PPG and it's allowed 71.3. The Purple Eagles average 66.6 PPG and they allow 76.2. Clearly on paper Rider is the better team, but I think this one sets up great situationally for the "hungrier" home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Rider is already a poor 2-6 ATS on the road this season and just 3-4 ATS after playing a road game this year, while Niagara is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog. Rider's form on the road hasn't been great and I believe it'll have its hands full. Clearly the outright win isn't out of question, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Niagara.

The set-up: The Golden Knights made a controversial coaching change which hasn't sat well with players, fans and the media. Expectations are so unreal in Las Vegas after its improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season. Sometimes coaching changes have a positive effect right out of the gate for a team (just look at the Leafs this year as a prime example), but in this case I believe it's going to back fire. The Knights have lost four in a row and I think the Sens are going to pour it on here to try and pull off the upset and to kick this team while its down. Besides, the Sens could care less about a four-game win streak, as they enter desperate to break an eight-game slide. Situationally, this sets up great for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: NOte as well that Las Vegas is a horrible 7-11 (-10.3 units) this year in all non-conference games. These are two poor teams. But in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Senators on the PUCK LINE.

The set-up: These teams are similar. They've both under-performed and they're both in need of a win. Each struggles with offense at times and both are terrible on the defensive end. Each will also view this as a contest that they can win tonight and because of that, I'm expecting an all out battle from start to finish. And then ultimately I believe this sense of extreme competition will help in keeping this total well below the posted number. Note that both teams also come in off beatdown losses, with the Suns falling 123-110 to the Hawks, while the Knicks dropped a 128-102 contest to the Bucks. Situationally this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring under in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Phoenix has seen the total dip under the number in three of its last four after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games, while NY has seen the total go under in ten of 14 as a home dog this season. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Suns/Knicks.

The set-up: I think 4-13 MTSU comes in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 11-6 FAU. The Blue Raiders have lost eight straight, while FAU has gone 9-3 in its last 12. The Owls though come off a poor 81-58 loss to UNT and with 11-6 UAB invading in two nights, I think this definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. On paper, clearly FAU is the better team. But losing wears on teams and I don't think we have to question MTSU's resolve and focus tonight. A great situational play for sure here in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that MTSU is a sharp 7-2 ATS in its last nine off two straight losses against a conference rival, while FAU is already a poor 4-5 ATS this season vs. schools with losing records. No outright, but a 'nail-biter.' Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Middle Tennessee State.

The set-up: In a game which I see being decided late or in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. I think Brian Elliot and Jordan Binnington are a "wash" here. The Flyers come in off a hard-fought 6-5 shootout win over the Bruins and I think they carry that offensive momentum over here (outshot Boston 39-31.) I think St. Louis, which enters having won four in a row, takes the foot off the gas here in this non-conference matchup. Note that the Blues have two whole nights off after this before an extended Western road trip which games at Colorado, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton all on the horizon. This is definitely a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Philly is 10-5 (+5 units) in its last 15 after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest, while St. Louis is a money-burning 9-9 (-1.9 units) this season in non-conference games.

10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Flyers.

The set-up: The Pacers are the better team on paper. But this is the opener of a home and home set and I think the home side is going to risk life and limb here to try and pull off the minor upset. After two straight wins, complacency kicks in for Indiana and after two straight losses, a sence of urgency for the home side. The Pacers just managed a 101-95 win over the 76ers last time out, but it certainly wasn't pretty. In fact note that Indiana has lost six of its last 11 overall. Note as well that the home team won and covered in each game in this series last year. The Wolves are coming off a 117-104 loss at home to OKC. Both teams are playing without key players for this series (Victor Oladipo and Karl Anthony Townes), but I think this one sets up great for the Wolves situationally.

The pick: Note as well that the Pacers are already a poor 3-5 ATS this year after covering in three of their last four against the spread, while Minnesota is a sharp 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. I'm banking on the home court advantage being sigificant tonight. This one means more to Minnesota.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The set-up: I think 14-2 Duquesne, which enters having won four straight, will get caught "looking past" the lowly 6-9 Fordham Rams. The Dukes most recently held on for a 66-61 win over George Washington. The Rams though have lost four of their last five and they've yet to get a conference victory. Most recently they fell 64-44 to St. Bonaventure. Fordham has two players averaging in double figures and Duquesne has three. On paper this one favors the Dukes, but with a more difficult 10-5 opponent in the Rhode Island Rams up next, I do indeed belive the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well.  

The pick: The Rams are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 65 points or less in four straight games, while the Dukes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest (including only 1-2 ATS this season.) I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter."

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham.

The set-up: I'm expecting a lower-scoring battle between the 17-0 SDSU Aztecs and the 5-11 Fresno State Bulldogs. The Bulldog and Aztecs have already played once this season and SDSU won by nine points at home on January 1st. Overall SDSU averages 75.9 PPG, but it's been getting the job done most nights with its amazing defense, which allows just 57 PPG. So that's not the greatest news for Fresno State today, which enters on a four-game losing streak and which averages only 69.6 PPG. The Bulldogs though have been fantastic defensively, allowing just 66.7 PPG. 

The pick: Note as well that SDSU has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 after two straight covers as a double-digit favorite, while Fresno State has seen the total dip below the number in three of its last four as a home dog. Everything points to a lower-scoring war between these conference foes.

10* CONF-TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER SDSU/Fresno State.

The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on Tuesday night and in my opinion, this one has "offensive fireworks" written ALL over it. Phoenix enters having won two straight, most recently getting 25 points from Kelly Oubre Jr in a victory over the Hornets. Phoenix is only 16-23, but it's only 1.5 games back for eighth spot in the West. The Suns are talented offensively and they actually lead the league in assists. The issue has been on the defensive end, which clearly doesn't bode well heading to ATL and facing the hungry and high-scoring Hawks. ATL won't be lacking for motivation here either, as it's on a four-game losing streak. Whether Trae Young plays or not tonight, I'm expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to exploit this weak Suns' defense. 

The pick: Note as well that Phoenix has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten non-conference games, while Atlanta has seen the total soar above the posted number in nine of 14 in the same position. Considering the strong situational and trend based factors listed above, I do indeed think this number is low. 

10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Suns/Hawks.

The set-up: After winning nine of their last ten, the Leafs come in razor focussed after three straight losses. The Devils are still in last place in the Metropolitan, but they've been playing a lot better of late, including a highly satisfying 3-1 win over the Lightning last time out. Previous to that they beat the Pens. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? 

The pick: Toronto is 10-5 (+4.3 units) in its last 15 after three or more consecutive losses, while New Jersey is just 12-19 (-2 units) this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 3-4 (-1.1 units) this season after a win by two goals or more. I expect Toronto to win. And win big! Lay the 1.5 goals for the plus money return in this one.

10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Toronto Maple Leafs PUCK-LINE.

The set-up: If you're watching and wagering on this game, then you know the story lines and strengths/weaknesses of each team. LSU has been an unstoppable juggernaut this year, but note that the underdog has covered in six straight National Championship Games. The defending champs can draw from experience here as well. LSU and Joe Burrow have been the "talk of the town," but this Clemson offense and defense has the talent (and as mentioned above, the experience in "the big game!") to not only cover this game, but to obviously win outright as well. We don't have to look further than some of the NFL upsets or near upsets etc. The Titans are a well coached team which has game-planned perfectly to advance to the Conference Championships. 

The pick: LSU has had some "close calls" as well this season (Texas, Auburn and Alabama.) On top of the underdog covering in six straight Nat Champ Games, note as well that Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on two weeks rest, while LSU is 0-4 ATS this year after posting 450 yards or more of offense in its prevoius game. I think Dabo Swinney still has something up his sleeve. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson.

The set-up: The Bruins have won three straight after beating the Isles in New York 3-2 in OT to open their road trip. I think this sets up a letdown spot for the B's though. Boston will be contending for the Cup for sure at the end and it comes in averaging 3.35 GPG and allowing 2.46. The Flyers got the better of the Capitals 3-2 to open their three-game stand, but they're out to bounce back after falling 1-0 to Tampa in their most recent outing. Philadelphis is 23-16--6 overall this year, but an outstanding 14-3-4 at home. 

The pick: Note as well that Boston is a devastatingly poor 4-6 (-4 units) this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Philly is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in its last five after getting shutout at home in its previous contest. Great value on the much "hungrier" home side in this one.

10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Flyers.

The set-up: The Suns are hungry for another victory here. They've also already lost two of three in the season series to the Hornets. Charlotte continues to struggle, but it looks to return to form here after falling to Utah last time out. Terry Rozier had 23 points in the latest setback. Phoenix got out to a great start to the year, but it's taken a major step back over the last three weeks. It held on for a lower-scoring win over the Magic last time out led by 24 points by Devin Booker. 

The pick: While inconsistency on the offensive end has cost these teams some games this year, it's been their complete lack of defense which has been the main issue. Note that these two clubs combine to allow an average of 225.6 PPG. I'm expecting each of these teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Hornets/Suns.

The set-up: Is Russel Wilson a "better" QB than Aaron Rodgers right now? Probably. But not by much. Wilson managed to get the most out of his injured team and they took advantage of the fact that Philly' QB Carson Wentz got knocked out early with an injury. The Hawks looked tired now in my opinion. Note that last week they committed 11 penalties for 114 yards. WR DK Metcalf was a bright spot though with 160 receiving yards. I like Rodgers here at home and with a week off to prepare. The Green Bay furture Hall of Famer isn't the same player he used to be, but this is a spot in which I think he can take full advantage of. Note that Green Bay was sixth in red zone efficiency this year.

The pick: Additionally note that the Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with winning records and 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff contests, while the Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. When you add it all up, I think this one has blowout from start to finish written all over it. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: The Pens are 7-2-1 in their last ten, but after winning back to back road games, I think the visiting side has a letdown here. Conversely, the Coyotes are in full on bounce back mode. They're just 5-5 in their last ten and they enter off back to back losses. Pittsburgh has been playing great over the last month, but note that it's still ranked just 15th in the league in goals allowed per game when on the road. And note that Arizona is ranked seventh in the NHL in goals allowed per game when at home. 

The pick: Arizona is also 8-2 (+5.9 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. I think the Pens finally have that road letdown vs. this now extremely focussed home side. 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Arizona Coyotes.

The set-up: 15-3 Wright STate is at 6-12 Illinois Chicago and I believe that the under the radar home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Raiders enter off an 80-64 win over IUPUI, while UIC fell 68-52 to UNK last time out. Revenge also comes into play here after Wright State took both games in this serires last year. Overall Wright State averages 81.1 PPG and it allows 72.2. The Flames average 65.4 PPG and they allow 72.2. 

The pick: Wright State though has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS In its last nine home games following a loss in which it posted 55 points or less in. Conversely, Wright State is already a poor 1-4 ATS this season after playing a road game. Expect the Flames to lay everything on the line and while I wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Illinois Chicago. 

The set-up: Houston advanced after beating the Bills 22-19 last weekend. The Texans looked down and out in that one early with a 16-0 deficit, but the team turned up the pressure on the defensive side and then Deshaun Watson and the offense managed to get the job done. Watson had 247 passing yards and one TD. Clearly the last thing the Texans can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with Patrick Mahomes and company. Note that Kansas City’s rush defense ranked sixth in the league over the last three games of the season, allowing 87 rush yards per game. KC's pass defense was also No. 8 overall in the NFL this season. 

The pick: It's supposed to be cold and windy today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run game and also taking into account the improved play on the defensive end from each team, I think this afternoon's contest sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texans/Chiefs.

The set-up: I like Tennessee to keep this one closer than expected. Derrick Henry is a beast and behind the improved play of QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans won a very tricky game at Foxborough last weekend. Beating Bill Bellichick on his own field and after such a tragic loss in Week 17 as well is very impressive in my books. The Titans are playing really good football right now in all three phases. They won't be intimidated whatsoever after posting the Playoff win in New England vs. the defending champs either. And will "rest" lead to "rust" for LaMar Jackson and company? Jackson will have to carry the load here with a minor injury to RB Mark Ingram. This is significant in my opinion. 

The pick: Tennessee is a sharp 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Baltimore is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 7 to 14 points range, including 0-2 ATS this season. I'm not calling for an outright, but all signs point to this one once again coming down to the wire.

10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Tennessee Titans.