The set-up: Lopez beat Anderson 4-2 in September, but I like the Braves to keep the foot on the gas and build off their big win in Game 1. Anderson finished with better regular season numbers and while each starter looked good in their respective wildcard win, clearly the Marlins bullpen is a train-wreck compared to the well-oiled machine of the Braves. I think this will once again play a big role in the outcome of Game 2 (and this series). 

The pick: Note as well that ATL is 11-1 in its last 12 vs. clubs with winning records, while Miami is now interestingly just 1-5 in its last six vs. the National League East. Look for Anderson to deliver a gem and for the Braves' bullpen to finish it off. I'm laying the price and expecting a blowout.

This is an 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: If you want an ESPN summary of what each individual player did in Game 3, then go to ESPN. If you're wagering on this contest, cleary you're familar with the cast of characters and the overall storyline. I'm here to tell you why I think the Lakers are going to streamroll the Heat in Game 4. LeBron James looked like a moron leaving the court early and he knows that the one thing that cures everything is "winning." When the Lakers big men assert themselves, the Heat have no answers and that's exactly what I expect to see happen here. Jimmy Butler was amazing in Game 3, but there's on way he can duplicate that effort again here.

The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. No need to overanalyze in my opinion, as this one has "beatdown" written all over it. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: After yesterday's 10-5 win for the Astros, I expect much more of a duel here in Game 2. Framber Valdez (3-5, 3.57 ERA) gave up only lfive home runs over 70 2/3's innings of work in the regular season. He came in on relief of Zack Greinke during his team's 4-1 win over the Twins and delivered five scoreless frames. 

The pick: Sean Manaea comes in fresh for the A's, as he did not throw in the series win over the White Sox. Manaea only allowed seven home runs over 54 innings of work, while striking out 45 this year. Note as well that the A's have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Athletics.

The set-up: Sandy Alcantara has been great and he's a possible X-Factor in this matchup if he can match Max Fried. However, the Braves have a fantastic bullpen and closer and I think these two factors will prove to be the difference in Game 1 and in this series. The Marlins aren't "sneaking up" on anyone anymore and while they've been an unbelievable story to this point, I think their Cindarella moment is over. 

The pick: Miami went just 8-9 in "day" games this year, while ATL went 11-1 in Fried starts in 2020. Atlanta averages 5.48 runs in the regular season and while the pitching staff of the Reds' quieted the Braves' bats down, Alcantara and company aren't nearly on the same level as Trevor Bauer. I'm laying the price and expecting a blowout.

This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The Falcons are 0-3. Atlanta has sizeable leads in each of its losses, only to choke it away late. This is a dejected Falcons side and I think it'll have difficulty summoning up the energy to go toe to toe with the red hot Packers on Monday night. Matt Ryan has been a bright spot for Atlanta, as he has seven TD's and just two INT's. The Falcons defense has been terrible, allowing 36 PPG. 

The pick: Aaron Rodgers and company don't need to "pad stats" after a 3-0 start though. Green Bay is in a good spot and it doesn't need to run up this score to win this contest. From a situational stand point, I think this number is much too high, but also note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three-games or longer unbeaten streak. These are two "gun-slinging" veteran QB's going head-to-head, but look for a more conservative game-plan from each. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Falcons/Packers.

The set-up: Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell are two of the top pitchers in the entire league. Each comes in off a decent season and both have performed well over their last five games. Despite that though, I think that these two powerful and hungry line-ups will combine to push this total over this low number once it's all said and done. The Rays dominated the regular season series 8-2, but that just adds big incentive for this now healthy Yankees slugging line-up to get revenge. In my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" from a situational stand point. 

The pick: It also sets up great from an O/U ATS/stats stand-point as well, as note that New York has seen the total go "over" in six of its last seven on the road, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 when playing with two or more days of rest. Expect this one to blast past the total in the middle frames!

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Yanks/Rays.

The set-up: This sets up well from a situational stand point. These teams were prepared to play on Sunday, but the Cam Newton covid scare delayed the contest. Now Cam is out and veteran backup Brian Hoyer will be asked to "manage" this contest. Expect the Pats to lean on their ground game in KC, with Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead dominating the carries (Pats are No. 1 in the league running the ball with 178 rushing yards per game.) 

The pick: KC is in zero threat of losing this game. After the Chiefs go up big early, look for them to take the foot off the gas, to run the clock and avoid serious injury. The Chiefs have allowed exactly 20 points in each of their first three games, but I have a hard time seeing Hoyer and company getting to that mark. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.

This is an 8* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Pats/Chiefs.

The set-up: The A's won seven of ten in the regular season series between these clubs, but I like the Astros to take Game 1. For the fourth straight season and fifth in the last six years, Houston is in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. (3-3, 3.93) was the only Houston pitcher that didn't throw in the wildcard round, so he comes very fresh having not hit the hill since September 26th. 

The pick: The A's won their first playoff series in 14 years and I think they're primed for a classic letdown here. Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 in regular season) who gave up one run over six innings last Wednesday. Note though that Oakland is 1-4 in its last five off a victory and only 1-4 in its last five following a day off, while Houston is 5-0 in its last five playoff games not played in HOuston and 41-10 in its last 51 following a day off. The experience that these Astros players bring to the table is invaluable at this point. Outright win is possible, but let's lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a contest which could easily see extra frames.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the ASTROS on the RUN-LINE!

The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Lance McCullers (3-3, 3.93 ERA) has plenty of postseason experience, so he'll clearly be eager to prove himself here in a confident manner. Note, he also benefits from having not thrown since September 26th. 

The pick: The A's Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29) dominated in the wild-card, allowing one run over seven innings. Bassitt was 1-1 vs. the Astros this year as well, posting a 2.65 ERA in the process. Oakland's bullpen was No. 1 in the majors during the regular season and Houston's pen did not give up a single run in the series win over Minnesota. Expect a classic "duel" in Game 1.

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Astros/A's.

The set-up: Game 1 went "under," and Game 2 went "over." I think that Game 3 will follow along the same suit as Game 1. The Heat are injured and they're dejected. No team in NBA Final history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit and the Lakers will want to rub out all hope right here. LA was one of the best defensive clubs in the league in the regular season and with no big men to threaten them down low, look for the Lakers to double down on the perimeter defense today. 

The pick: Note that the Heat have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last 11 after a ten points or greater loss in their previous outing. Look for fatigue to be an issue here as well. This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lakers/Heat.

The set-up: I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the Giants can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch here. New York is coming off a 36-9 loss to San Francisco at home, so clearly not many are giving them much of a chance in this one. The Rams are coming off a heart-breaking loss on the road in Buffalo and with a "cream puff" matchup in Washington next weekend, the possibility of them taking the foot off the gas in the second half is big. 

The pick: The Giants are playing for pride here as they look to get off the schneid. Note that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three straight SU/ATS losses. No outright, but closer than expected.

This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Giants.

The set-up: New Orleans will look to avoid an 1-3 hole here. The Saints catch a complacent Lions team off an improbable road win in Arizona. The Lions are allowing 30.7 PPG and they're scoring only 23.3. 

The pick: The Saints are the better team through all three phases here and from a situational stand point, it sets up well for them in the dome at Ford Field, but also note that the Lions are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, while New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the New Orleans Saints.

The set-up: Neither team has looked great this year. Each has looked terrible defensively. However, I think that trend starts to change this week with this sky-high total. 

The pick: Dallas has also seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 15 after allowing 35 points or more in a road loss in its previous outing. Both team's defenses have severely under-performed this year, so expect that lop-sided trend to end here. This number is too high in my opinion. 

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Browns/Cowboys.

The set-up: K-State beat Oklahoma last year as a big underdog, so I definitely thought that the Sooners would be out for revenge this season, but a late meltdown last week led to a second consecutive loss to the Wildcats as a 28 point favorite. Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler threw three interceptions, so that obviously didn't help. Iowa State was upset by the Ragin Cajuns two weeks ago, but the Cyclones held on for a 37-34 win over TCU last weekend. I am not going to over-react here to the Sooners "brain fart" last weekend..instead I will look at the positives and expect Oklahoma to bounce back this week. Rattler, while he did throw the three interceptions, he also threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns. It was Rattler's second consecutive four touchdown game. Drake Stoops, son of former coach Bob Stoops caught three passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Sooners looked poor defensively though, they allowed 334 passing yards and did not record a turnover. 

The pick: Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy had 211 yards passing and one touchdown, while Breece Hall had three rushing touchdowns in the win over the Horned Frogs last weekend. The Cyclones win came at a cost though, as two offensive linemen were lost in Trevor Downing and Robert Hudson. The Iowa State defense was a big of a mixed back, posting seven sacks, but also allowing 400 passing yards. I think that Rattler is going to be able to exploit this and I like the Sooners defense to bounce back after that atrocious fourth quarter last week. I'll finish off by pointing out that Iowa State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following a straight-up victory.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma.

The set-up: The Red Raiders play with revenge here after falling 30-27 in this game last year. Texas Tech comes in off a tough loss to Texas, but they were a massive underdog and they have to be feeling good about how they played. Now they get to take out their frustrations on a contented K-State team which just upset Oklahoma for the second time in two years as a 28 point underdog. In the end Texas Tech had 441 yards, with QB Alex Bowman throwing for five TDs. 

The pick: K-State trailed for the first three quarters, but a complete collapse by Oklahoma in the fourth proved to be the difference. It was a surprising result, considering that K-State has several players sidelined with Covid. Skyler Thompson had three rushing TD's and one passing. Both teams took their respective ranked opponents down to the wire, but one came away with the victory, while the other came up JUST short. Give me the hungrier dog in this fight and take the points in the process!

This is a 9* 'PLAY-BOOK' on Texas Tech.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season after beating Army last time out. USF won its first game over Citadel 27-6, before then getting destroyed 52-0 by the Irish. Then last week the Bulls game vs. FAU was postponed due to Covid. South Florida will be running the ball a ton here and I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead" today. 

The pick: In fact, the Bearcats enjoy their bye-week after this. And finally note that Cincinnati is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back ATS victories. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on South Florida.

The set-up: The Lakers were one of the best defensive clubs in the regular season and now that they can see that the Heat are injured and floundering, I expect them to double down on their strengths in Game 2. Clearly Miami has no answer for Lakers' big man Anthony Davis, so expect LA to continue to run their offense through him. Miami's only hope is to start shooting the three-ball, but again, LA is extremely adept and rotating and guarding the perimeter. From a situational stand-point, I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that LA has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after a ten-points or greater victory in its previous outing. I think the Heat have already mentally thrown in the towel. This one has "under" written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Heat/Lakers.

The set-up: The spread and total in this game have moved quite a bit over the last couple of days. The Jets were a 3-point underdog to open, but now they're a -2 point fav at some places. This total opened at 40, it dropped to as low as 39.5 and now it's 41.5. None of these line movements is overally significant though and regardless of all of that anyways, I think this total is much too low as I expect it to blast past early in the second half. I think it sets up well from a situational stand point. Defenses on both sides are terrible. Both teams are desperate for a win after starting 0-3. The National stage adds incentive to perform as well. When you add it all up from a situational stand point, I absolutely think this number is too low. 

The pick: Also note that Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last ten road games after three straight SU losses. This number is indeed low, the play is the over.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Broncos/Jets.

The set-up: I like the Padres to bounce back here and respond after their series opening loss to the Cards. St. Louis jumped out to an early 4-0 lead in the top of the first inning and San Diego was never able to catch-up. With their backs against the wall here, I love the Padres in this spot. The visitors go with Adam Wainwright (5-3, 3.15 ERA), while the home side counters with Zach Davies (7-4, 2.73). Davies gets the slight nod in this matchup throwing at home. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Padres are 7-2 in their last nine after allowing seven or more runs in a home loss to an opponent in their previous outing. Davies gets the nod on the bump and the numbers/trends also point to San Diego getting revenge in Game 2. I'm laying the price!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Diego Padres.

The set-up: The Braves managed a 1-0 in 13 innings. This series features some sharp starting pitching, but I think that these talented line-ups will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Ian Anderson (3-1, 1.95 ERA) has made only six starts since being promoted mid-season. The sample size is just too small to draw any real conclusions though and I think he'll struggle in this pressure-packed Playoff situation.

The pick: Luis Castillo (4-6, 3.21) was good for the Reds overall this season and I expect his offense to pick him up here. Cincinnati had 11 hits and left 13 runners on base yesterday and I definitely don't expect that to happen again. Note as well that the Reds have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after getting blanked in a loss in their previous outing and allowing one or less runs in the process. This one has "over" written all over it.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Reds/Braves.

The set-up: If you're wagering on this game, then you don't need me to fill you in on these teams strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters involved. All of these things are already known even by the most casual NBA fan. Besides, you can go to any sports website to obtain that information. I'm here to tell you why the Heat are going to at the very least, cover with the decent spread they've been afforded here. 

The pick: The Heat have done well in the playoffs, especially defending the perimeter and in shooting percentage. With a couple of days off to prepare, I think that Eric Spolestra will have a game-plan in place to counter what the Lakers will have in store. Also note that the Heat are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 overall. Miami has been overlooked throughout these playoffs and I think that LA does as well here. That said, grab the points.

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat.

The set-up: As good as Trevor Bauer has been, I think he'll have a hard time handling this nasty Braves' line-up, which led the league with a .832 OPS, while the Reds ended up 19th at .715. The Braves have hit Bauer well in the past and I think that ATL starter Max Fried will be able to match him inning for inning. The Reds did catch fire near the end of the abbreviated season, but they struggled with offensive consistency throughout.

The pick: Also note that ATL is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -140 range and playing with two or more days of rest. I'm laying the price!

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The Yankees slugging percentage was one of the best in the league at home, but it's one of the worst on the road. While New York returns most of their sluggers to the line-up who missed the regular season due to injury, the missed time is a major concern for chemistry if you're a New York fan. Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and after a shaky campaign, he finally settled down over the last month, allowing just two runs over 21 innings of work. Cole's been decent, but his counterpart has been fantastic. 

The pick: Shane Bieber (8-1, 1.63) gets the nod for the home side and he is MLB's first triple crown pitcher in over a decade. Note that the Tribe have won six of their last seven at home as well, while New York has lost four of its last six on the road in this series. Jose Ramirez and the Indians' line-up are dangerous at home and I expect them to deliver in Game 1!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cleveland Indians.

The set-up: This is the first time these teams have played this year, but in 2019 the A's went 5-1 in the season series. Chicago backed its way into the playoffs and even had a chance to secure home field advantage on the final day of the regular season, but it fell 10-8 to the Cubs. Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts vs. the A's. 

The pick: Oakland has a great pitching staff and bullpen. The White Sox have a terrible bullpen. Luzardo (3-2, 4.12) gets the call for the A's and in his last start vs. the Giants he went six shutout innings, allowing just five hits. Note that the A's are 6-2 in their last eight at home as well, while the White Sox are a poor 0-5 in their last five on the road. I'm grabbing the "plus-money" and expecting a big blowout! 

This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the Oakland A's.

The set-up: The Astros have a great hitting line-up, but they enter the playoffs injured. The Twins are healthy and they have the superior starter on the hill in this one as well in my opinion. When you add it all up, it makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Houston was a putrid 9-23 on the road this year, while Minnesota was 24-7 at home. Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) gets the call for the Astros and he posted a 5.46 ERA over his final seven regular season starts. 

The pick: Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70) has been red hot for Minnesota this year and he's been particularly dominant against this Astros line-up. The chips are stacked against Houston here and I think it stumbles out of the gate. Expect the home side to take advantage. 

This is an 8* MOUND MISMATCH on the Minnesota Twins.

The set-up: Dallas managed to score the 3-2 OT win in Game 5 and it'll now look to push this series to a decisive Game 7. Tampa will try its best now to put the final nail in the coffin and to do that though, I believe it'll try its best to take the Stars out of their "comfort zone," and that means pushing the pace and playing a more wide open affair. Easier said than done vs. this trapping Stars' defense, but I think that fatigue on both sides will now lead to a break down of defensive performance. 

The pick: Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 after scoring two or less goals in an OT setback in its previous outing. This one has "over" written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Bolts/Stars.

The set-up: Clearly the Jets are a terrible team, but they come in 0-2 SU/ATS and their season is essentially on the line here. I acknowlege their many issues across all three phases, but one thing we don't have to worry about is New York's resolve and determination today and I think that's significant. Indianapolis has been mediocre thus far and with back-to-back tough road games at CHicago and Cleveland, I think the home side will take the foot off the gas and get caught "looking ahead" as well.

The pick: And finally note that: How do NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3:

Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%)

Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%)

This is an 8* DESTROYER on the New York Jets.

The set-up: I think many believe that the Raiders will have a "letdown" here after their big Monday Night Football win at home over the Saints, but I don't. I think many also believe that the Patriots are going to explode here after their close setback in Seattle last Sunday night, but I don't. The Patriots looked pretty mediocre at home in their Week 1 win over the Dolphins and I think they'll have their hands full here vs. this Raiders team which is suddenly firing on all cylinders. Derek Carr had 282 yards passing and three TD's, while Josh Jacobs had 88 yards on 27 carries, after running for 93 yards and three TD's in Week 1. The defense has been the weak point, but the offense has a 75 percent success rate in the red zone. 

The pick: Cam Newton had 397 yards passing vs. the Seahawks last week, but Seattle's defense is a mess. Newton has been great early, but RB Sony Michel has been a no show for the most part, last week he posted 56 yards. Last week the Pats' defense was lit up for 35 points and I believe it'll struggle again here vs. this dynamic Raiders' offenese. I think the Raiders are playing better through all three phases and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this one being a "nail biter." 

This is an 8* ANNIHILATOR on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: Both teams are 2-0 SU, but Buffalo is 0-2 ATS. Here is a stat which this pick is primarily based upon:

How NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3:

Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%)

Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%)

The pick: Additionally note that Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while the Rams are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road when facing a team with a winning record. I think the Rams' inefficiences on the defensive end come back to haunt them here. Lay the points.

This is an 8* ATS SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up:

The pick:

This is an 8* FALSE-FAVORITE on the Minnesota Vikings.

The set-up: The Bengals run game is non-existent. Joe Mixon has been terrible. That puts added pressure onto Joe Burrow. The Eagles have also allowed six sacks and there's injury issues for the Bengals on the offensive line. Burrow has been great and he has decent receivers, it's just that the Bengals are entirely too one dimensional and Burrow simply doesn't have the experience yet to handle any of this.

The pick: Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS to open the season. Note: How NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3:

Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%)

Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%)

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: Will LA be able to clinch here? The Nuggets have been down 3-1 in each of their last two series, before then rallying to win three straight and advance. Fatigue is a major factor for both teams and I think that'll be evident as well in the final combined score. The Lakers have now defeated the Nuggets in six of eight head meetings this season overall. Both teams love running their offenses through their big men and that means running half court sets on offense. From purely a "situational" stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well though that the Nuggets have seen the total go "under" the number in nine of their last 13 after allowing 114 points or more in a SU loss in their previous outing. As mentioned above, fatigue plays a major factor in my reasoning. This number is high for sure.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Nuggets/Lakers.

The set-up: Enough is enough! The White Sox are in the playoffs, but they've lost six straight and seven of their last eight. Suffice it to say, I expect the ChiSox to finally break through here and earn a victory. The White Sox sit one game behind the Twins for the division crown and in a tie now with the Indians. With two games left, anything can happen. I'll call Lester and Dunning a "wash," here, but the difference comes in the numbers/trends. 

The pick: As note that the Cubs are just 2-7 in their last nine after a ten runs or higher victory in their last outing (won 10-0 in yesterday's series opener), while the White Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 after allowing ten or more runs in a home loss in their previous outing. I love the "hungrier" team here to finally get off the schneid.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: Texas won this game last year by a score of 49-24, but I think the stage is set for a much closer battle this time around. The Longhorns are 1-0 after beating UTEP 59-3, and the Red Red Raiders are also 1-0 after beating Houston Baptist by a score of 35-33. Texas is looking to improve upon its 8-5 record from last year. Sam Ehlinger is back under center to direct an offense which averaged 35.2 PPG. The weakness is on the defensive end though, as the unit allowed 27.5 PPG last season. That defense should be improved, but it now clearly faces a much tougher offense this week. 

The pick: Texas Tech will have its hands full through all three phases, but with QB Alan Bowman under center, I love the Red Raiders chances here. Bowman can keep his team in late. Last year he only played in three games, but he finished with 1,020 yards, six TD's and three INT's in that span. Texas Tech also welcomes back three of its top four receivers, led by KeSean Carter. Yes, the Red Raiders are destined to be terrible defensively again this season (they allowed 600 yards in th ewin over HBU), but the unit does return eight starters, so minor improvement is also expected. The Red Raiders' schedule doesn't easier either with games at K-State and Iowa State up next. Texas on the other hand will get caught "looking ahead" here with a game at home vs. TCU, follow by at Oklahoma, vs. Baylor and at Oklahoma State all on deck next. No outright, but much closer than expected in my opinion. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech.

The set-up: The Heat bounced back from their first loss in a while to knock off Boston 112-109 in Game 4. Miami is on the brink of heading to the NBA Finals once again, but to do that it'll have to focus here and knock off this still dangerous Celtics side. From a situational stand point, I expect a very tight, defensive affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a SU/ATS loss in which it allowed 110 or more points in. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Miami/Boston.

The set-up: Dallas will be fighting tooth and nail here as it looks to once again tie up the Stanley Cup Final. Dallas looked great in its Game 1 victory, as it was able to slow down this high-powered Lightning offense and if it has any hopes of tying up this series, clearly it'll have to duplicate that effort here. Anton Khudobin and Andrei Vasilevski each has the ability to take over a game and the numbers/trends support that theory in Game 3.

The pick: As note that Tampa has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring five or more goals in a three goals or larger victory in its last outing, while Dallas has seen the total go "under" in 12 of its last 19 after back-to-back losses and in which it let in five or more goals in its most recent setback. The situation and the numbers both point to the "under" as the correct call here.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Bolts/Stars.

The set-up: Both teams are moving in opposite directions to end the year. Both teams have clinched a playoff spot, but each still seeks to try and earn the division title. I simply feel that these starting pitchers and teams are very evenly matched and in a case like that, the value swings to the underdog. Yu Darvish (7-3, 2.22 ERA) and Dylan Cease (5-3, 3.52) are a "wash" here in my opinion. 

The pick: But note that the White Sox are 7-2 in their last nine interleague home games as a an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. I look for the desperate home side to deliver in this crucial contest.

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL TOP DOG on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: If not for Anthony Davis's game winning three-point shot in Game 2, this series could be drastically different. Denver predictably came out flat in Game 1 after its second straight seven game series victory, but it's quickly made adjustments and now it's 1-2 after taking Game 3 convincingly. I had a play on LA in Game 1, but I think that Denver now has the "blue-print" to beat LA and while that may or may not in fact happen, in my opinion everything points to another "nail-biter!" 

The pick: I'll point out as well that LA is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 108 points or less in its previous outing, while Denver is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after scoring 114 points or more in a win in their last outing. 

This is a 10* GAME 4 BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: Miami is now 0-2 after a tough 31-28 setback at home to the Bills. The Dolphins looked good at times in that loss and pretty poor in others. Miami didn't look great in New England either in Week 1, losing 21-11. The Dolphins have the Seahawks at home next weekend, but they'll have to be careful to not look past this potentially dangerous Jaguars team, who I think will actually find a way to get the job done again here. Jacksonville is just 1-1 straight up, but it's so far 2-0 against the spread.  The Jags upset the Colts 27-20 at home in Week 1, before then falling 33-30 to Tennessee in Week 2. The Jags allowed four TD passes to Ryan Tannehill, but QB Gardner Minshew continues to be competitive each week. Last week Minshew was 30 of 45 for 339 yards, three TD's and two INT's. And with two straight difficult road games at Cinncinati and Houston respectively, this is a game which the lowly Jaguars would have had circled on their calendar before the season started as a "winnable" one. 

The pick: Miami's schedule is a difficult and I think it very well could have already thrown in the towel on the season. After the Seahawks at home next week it then has two on the road at San Francisco and Denver, followed by home games vs. the Chargers and Rams and then another road game at Arizona before then finally catching a break with back-to-back games vs. the Jets. Let's face it...neither of these teams is going to be in the playoffs, but I think that Minshew and the Jaguars are playing better through all three phases right now and despite no fans in the stands, I think they benefit greatly here in playing at home. The Jaguars are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five overall, while Miami is a pitiful 7-15 ATS in its last 22 on the road (and just 2-14 straight up in its last 16 away from friendly confines.)

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The set-up: Seattle beat Houston 3-2 last night. The Astros are now just 28-28 and they haven't yet punched their ticket to the postseason. Now they face the Rangers, who have already been eliminated from contention, but who would love nothing more than to play spoiler vs. the "cheating" Astros. And with their ace on the mound, I love the home side to do just that. The visitors hand the ball to Cristian Javier (4-2, 3.33 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing vs. the D-Backs on Saturday. Overall he's been great with a 48:17 K:BB, but I simply beleive that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The pick: Lance Lynn (6-2, 2.53) counters for Texas, who is tied for the MLB in starts (12) and who has gone at least seven frames in each of his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 21 K's. I'm banking on Lynn delivering here and for the Rangers to use the "spoiler factor" vs. their cross state rivals as motivation.

This is a 10* SUPER-SHOCKER on the Texas Rangers.

The set-up: Boston managed to get off the schneid in Game 3, but I think it'll have its hands full again here as it tries to even up. Boston did look decent defensively last time out though in the 117-106 win and it'll have to duplicate that aggressive performance if it has any hopes of evening up. 

The pick: Both teams come in rested, so everyone will be fresh and I think that benefits the defensive end of the court. Note as well that Miami has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 after a ten points or greater loss in their last outing, combined with two or more days of rest between games. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion. 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Celtics and Heat.

The set-up: This series is all tied up. Tampa's been inconsistent over the last couple of weeks though. Dallas took an uncharacterisitc 12 minutes worth of penalties in Game 2 and that was the difference in the end. And despite that, Dallas had a chance at the end for another victory. 

The pick: Tampa has to be "gassed" here after it seven game series previous and it's still banged up. The Stars are very disciplined and they're 6-1 in their last seven after allowing three or more goals in a one goals loss to an opponent in their previous outing. I'm expecting Dallas to respond in Game 3!

This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Dallas Stars.

The set-up: Neither team has been eliminated from playoff contention officially yet. The odds are extremely long for the Nationals, while the Phillies' chances are also quickly slipping away. Washington has won the first three games of this series, including both in yesterday's double header. Bryce Harper was 0-5 as he continues to deal with an oblique injury. The Phillies' Zach Elfin is 3-3 with a 4.43 ERA in eight starts vs. the Nats, while Erick Fedde is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA in seven career outings vs. the Philllies. Both starters' form leaves everything to be desired and I'll call them a "wash" in this matchup.

The pick: Washington is the defending champ and it's taking this series personally, looking to remain alive, but to also ruin Philadelphia's chances. I think the home side keeps the foot on the gas for one more game and getting "plus money" is the icing on the cake.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: The Dodgers enter this series with the best record in baseball at 38-16. LA has already clinched a playoff spot and so too has San Diego, which sits right behind it at 34-20. The Dodgers still haven't clinched the division though. Oakland has also clinched a playoff spot but it still hasn't earned the AL West crown yet at 33-20. Houston is at 27-26, so it's just a matter of time now before the A's earn that spot. But turning to this interesting interleague matchup...we have Frankie Montas of the A's going up against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Montas is just 3-4 with a 5.86 ERA, who returns from a stint on  the paternity list. Montas has lost four straight and he draws a tough matchup here, but he has the track record and pedigree to bounce back. He was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA last season and he has this game and one more to get back on track before the playoffs start. May is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA and he most recently worked five innings of relief in a 7-5 win over the Padres on Wednesday. May has an even better 2.57 ERA at home and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that he can't carry over his recent form into this one as well.

The pick: Instead of a slug-fest in the opener of this series, I think the stage is set for a pitchers duel. Expect these division leaders to battle to a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER A's/Dodgers.

The set-up: The Nuggets have the Lakers right where they want them! That's the "joke" right now after Denver has come back from consecutive 3-1 deficits to win their last two series in seven games. The Lakers look like the better team to this point, but they got a huge shot from Anthony Davis to win Game 2. If he misses that one, who knows how Game 2 ends. Regardless, after getting blown out in Game 1 the Nuggets clearly made adjustments to counter LA and it almost worked. I think Denver's ability to adapt and make adjustments on the fly is its greatest strength and I believe it could in fact help it come out on top outright here. 

The pick: Note as well that the Nuggets are 7-1 in their last eight games when trailing in a playoff series, while the Lakers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series as the favorite. I'm not counting out the Nuggets quite yet. That said, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: The Yanks got spanked 11-5 yesterday by a desperate Jays team, but I think New York will bounce back in fine fashion here with its ace on the mound and with a chance to deal another fatal blow to its division rivals playoff hopes. Gerritt Cole (6-3, 3.00 ERA) dominated the Jays on Tuesday, holding them to one run and three hits while striking out eight over seven innings. Cole is now 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA in three career outings vs. the Blue Jays. 

The pick: Tanner Roark (2-2, 6.41) has conceded eight runs in eight frames of work vs. the Yanks this season, including allowing six home runs. Overall he's a poor 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA. This is going to have a "playoff-like atmosphere" and as such, I look for elite level Cole to easily dominate the "gas can" Roark. Lay the 1.5 runs and the price and expect an epic lop-sided victory for the visitors.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Yankees.

The set-up: I like Drew Brees and company to lay the hammer down in the new Las Vegas stadium. The Saints beat the Bucs 34-23 last weekend. Drew Brees had 180 yards passing and two TD's. TE Jared Cook had five receptions for 80 yards. The defense allowed 310 yards total, including 224 through the air. The Saints though sacked Tom Brady three times, while also posting two interceptions. The Raiders beat the Panthers on the road 34-30. Oakland posted 372 yards of offense, with Dereck Carr posting 239 yards and one TD. The Raiders though allowed 388 total yards of offense to a pretty terrible Carolina team. 

The pick: Note as well that the Raiders are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 following a SU win and only 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting more than 350 total yards in their previous outing. The Saints though are 4-0 ATS in their last four as a favorite and I think their depth across all three phases will be too much for Carr and company to keep up to down the stretch. Lay the points.

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the New Orleans Saints.

The set-up: Yes, Tampa lost Game 1, but it was only its sixth game out of 20 so far in the bubble that it's dropped. The Stars have won four in a row, but I think that mental regression is imminent here. I also expect the Lightning to give their best shot to try even this series. The goaltenders are a "wash" for me in this series, so that particular factor is eliminated for me when figuring this series out. The Lightning started out flat footed and let in the early goal vs. Dallas, but I don't expect "lightning" to strike twice. 

The pick: Winning can lead to complacency. Obviously this is the Stanley Cup Final and each team is equally as "hungry" and motivated. TB is too deep and talented and I think it'll easily make adjustments to counter and considering all of the above factors, I do indeed feel we're getting a very good price as well in Game 2. So that's the pick, lay the price on Tampa Bay.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The set-up: The Cubs have lost two in a row, but they have four straight winnable contests here vs. the Pirates and I think they most of it. Especially considering they have a tough three game series at the White Sox to end the regular season. The Cubs actually still have an opportunity to lock down the No. 2 spot in the entire National League as they're in a race with the Braves right now. 

The pick: Jon Lester is having an overall poor campaign, but he's throwing his best of the year at this very moment, off back-to-back strong outings in which he's allowed two runs over 11 innings of work. He's had plenty of success vs. the Pirates throughout his career and I think he'll get the better of JT Brubaker. Brubaker faced the Cubs earlier in the season and had success, but regression seems imminent the second time around. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Cubs.

The set-up: I think Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will love nothing more than an opportunity to run up the score and destroy Cam Newton and the Patriots on Sunday night. New England looked "ok" in its home win over the Dolphins, but its patchwork defense is going to be in trouble tonight. That said, there's no question that Newton and the Patriots' offense will have their opportunties tonight as well.

The pick: As note that the Hawks allowed 506 yards of offense to the Falcons last weekend and 25 points overall. Wilson had 322 yards passing and four TD's himself. This one has "over" written all over it!

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Pats/Hawks.

The set-up: I had a play on the Lakers in Game 1 and I think they now have the blue-print to sweep this Denver team in four. The Nuggets come off back-to-back seven game series where they had to dig themselves out of a 3-1 hole. It's an emotional game and I think that Denver is out of gas and it's "magic" has run out. The Lakers started slowly in the first quarter in Game 1, but then a quick adjustment saw them dominate the rest of the way, especially defensively.

The pick: Nikola Jokic is going to have a heck of a time slowing down Anthony Davis, who I expect to once again have a big game here. The Lakers are too tough defensively for Jamal Murray to operate effectively either. I'm laying the points and expecting another blowout from start to finish. 

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: With its ace on the mound, I like Chicago to bounce back and clinch the series victory tonight over the Twins. The Cubs won the opener 1-0 and then the Twins bounced back with an 8-1 victory last night. And with that win, Minnesota has now clinched a spot in the playoffs. Now the Twins are jockeying for a better position, but still just the mental aspect of finally clinching tends to lead to complacency. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.15 ERA) who comes in pitching well, but who was rocked by the Cubs in his lone appearance vs. them, allowing six runs off six hits over four innings. 

The pick: Yu Darvish (7-1, 1.86) is going for his 71st career victory today. Darvish is winless ove rhis last two starts, despite posting a 3.46 ERA in that span. In three matchups vs. the Twins he's 1-1 with a 1.77 ERA, to go along with 25 K's over 20 1/3's innings of work. Look for the Twins to have a mental letdown here after clinching last night and lay this reasonable price on the red hot Darvish.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs.

The set-up: The Chiefs have had a few extra days off after they crushed the Texans on the Opening Thursday night and I don't think that's working in their favor. The Chiefs I think will also get caught "looking ahead" here to their big game at Baltimore next week. 

The pick: The Chargers did just enough to win a tough game vs. the Bengals in Week 1, but after the way Cincinnati played in Cleveland on Thursday in Week 2, it does make LA's defense look a lot better going into this matchup. And with a "cream puff" at home vs. Carolina next week, the Chargers are able to put their full focus onto their division rival. I think Tyrod Taylor controls this one while the Chargers are on offense and I love the home side to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the LA Chargers.

The set-up: The Titans are coming off a thrilling last second win on Monday Night Football in Denver, prevailing 16-14. The Titans failed to cover the spread and I think they're going to have a difficult time covering this large number as well. Jacksonville was a huge dog at home to Indianpolis, but Gardner Minshew and company ended up winning outright. Minshew is an interesting character and he'll be trying to make the most of every opportunity he's given. 

The pick: Tennessee was sloppy in its win last week and it also missed three field goals. RB Derrick Henry was pedestrian, as was QB Ryan Tannehill. And hanging your hat on the fact that the defense only allowed 14 points to a decimated Broncos' offense is nothing to be proud of in my opinion. The Jags aren't going to go down without a fight here and I look for them to comfortably sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch. 

This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT On the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The set-up: I think the Bears can build off their big fourth quarter last week. The Giants though looked inept vs. the Steelers in their 26-16 setback at home on Monday though and I think they'll struggle again here on the short week. QB Daniel Jones had 279 yards passing and two TD's. The defense allowed 229 passing yards and 113 rushing. 

The pick: The Bears overcame a 17 point second half deficit to get an impressive win in Detroit last SUnday. QB Mitch Trubisky had 242 passing yards and three TD's. Chicago allowed 288 yards passing, but I think the unit can improve at home here vs. Jones, who is down a few key pieces. Note as well that the Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home vs. teams with losing records, while New York is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. clubs with winning records. Lay the points, expect a blowout!

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Bears.

The set-up: With Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford going head-to-head, some may think that this could be a very high-scoring affair, but I'm going to go the other way, as I expect these two division rivals to battle tough and I expect this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. Detroit looked great for three quarters vs. the Bears last week, before then collapsing and allowing 21 unanswered points. I don't think that's going to happen twice. The Lions offense wasn't great, posting 23 points as Stafford had 297 passing yards and one TD. And again, through three quarters the defense looked great, before the "brain fart" in the fourth. 

The pick: The Packers dominated in their win last week, posting 43 points. Rodgers had 364 yards passing and four TD's. Minnesota's defense looked out of sorts last week though and I think Rodgers and the home side offense will have a much more diffiuclt time moving the ball vs. this highly motivated and focused Lions team. This number is a tad high. 

This is an 8* O/U PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lions/Packers.

The set-up: The Heat are 10-1 SU/ATS so far in the playoffs. The Celtics have looked great in the first half of both Game's 1 and 2, but then fallen apart in the second. I don't expect that to happen again though. In fact, I look for the Celtics to play their best game of this series so far. Miami has been unreal, but all good things have to come to an end at some point. The Heat up until now look like a team of "destiny," but momentum and chemistry is a funny thing in the playoffs. I absolutely do not believe that it's possible for the Heat's high level of efficiency to continue. A crash is coming and it's coming tonight. 

The pick: Additionally note that Boston is 8-4 in its last 12 after back-to-back SU losses. The C's are favored despite being down 0-2, but I think they should in fact be a much larger favorite. The Lakers hammered the upstart Nuggets last night and I expect Boston to finally do the same here in this series.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Celtics on the MONEY LINE.

The set-up: Tampa's only lost five of its 19 bubble games. Dallas has lost eight of 21 in the bubble. This is a revenge game for the Lightning, in fact, DOUBLE revenge. Dallas won both regular season contests, both in OT. These teams are evenly matched in net, but I think Tampa is the much deeper and more skilled offensive club. Tampa's strength this season has been its adaptability, able to play a slower-paced defensive affair, or a faster-paced "shootout" without any issues. 

The pick: The Lightning are 7-2 in their last nine when playing with two or more days rest. The Stars have been off for five days and I believe that "rest" is going to lead to "rust." I'm laying the price and expecting a decisive victory.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog to win outright in this NCAAF contest. Southern Miss is a disaster, it enters off a 32-21 loss at home to South Alabama as a 14 point favorite. Last year Louisiana Tech hammered the Golden Eagles 45-30 in this game. Louisiana Tech lost QB J'Mar Smith, which is significant, but his back up knows the system and is ready to go. Aaron Allen had 446 yard spassing with three TD's and one INT as a backup last season and he benefits from having almost 100% of the rest of last season's offense around him. And his defense looks better as well. 

The pick: The Golden Eagles' head coach Jay Hopson resigned after ten years after last week's loss. That's not good news for this fragile team in my opinion. Golden Miss only averaged 2.6 YPC last week and note that it's just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in the month of September. Southern Miss just gave up 500 yards to a poor South Alabama team and I think it'll struggle again here vs. LA Tech as well this week. 

This is a 10* MONEY-LINE PLAY OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech.

The set-up: Toronto lost both games of its double-header against Philadelphia yesterday, but I think it'll dig deep here with its ace on the mound on Saturday night. Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-1, 3.00 ERA) is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts vs. the Phillies. Toronto is desparate here, as it was swept by the Yankees in its previous series.  

The pick: The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (0-1, 6.46), who is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two career outings vs. Toronto. Philly's bullpen is a wreck and I think the home side comes out flat here after yesterday's double-header sweep. This line could/should in fact be much larger in my opinion, great value on the hungry visitors.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Toronto Blue Jays.

The set-up: Last year OSU won this contest 40-21 on the road and I expect a similar final combined score here as well, as it sneaks "under" this sky-high number. Interesting to note, that Tulsa actually ahd a 21-20 lead at half time, but OCU scored 20 unanswered and locked down defensively in the second half for the big victory. Tulsa was only 4-8 last year and its offense revolves around its two senior RB's in Corey Taylor II and Shamari Brooks. QB Zach Smith had 3,279 yards passing last year, with 20 TD's and nine INT's. 

The pick: The Cowboys were 8-5 last year and averaged 32.5 PPG. OSU returns NCAAF's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard as well. Spender Sanders had 16 TD passes and 11 INT's. Also note, the Cowboys return their entire defensive core. Two years ago OSU allowed 30-plus PPG. Last year it allowed 26.8. Now the Cowboys are once again expected to take a big step in a positive direction defensively. And that's bad news for this run first Tulsa side. This number is too high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Tulsa/Oklahoma.

The set-up: Obviously you can't count out the Nuggets in any situation, however I'm definitely going to do just that in Game 1. Denver has a reputation now of being quite the survivor after back-to-back series of having to climb out of a 1-3 hole. The Lakers though are rested and they have the big men in their line-up to easily handle Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. With Jokic neutralized, the savvy veteran guards of the Lakers are going to be able to operate and make it difficult for Jamal Murray to get any open looks. This is an extremely poor matchup for Denver, which has no answer for LeBron James. 

The pick: LA is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after four or more days of rest. I think the back-to-back seven games series comes back to fatigue Denver and I love the Lakers to finally get out to a big start in a playoff series in the bubble with a commanding full four quarter effort. I'm laying the points.

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: Over-reaction after Week 1 is a major issue for casual bettors. The Browns got destroyed on the road in Baltimore in their first game of the year and the pundits are already out and ready to crucify them. The Bengals were put in a position to win my rookie QB Joe Burrow in their Week 1 loss to the Chargers, but a missed FG at the end of the game cost the team the OT chance. Granted, the Browns looked bad, but I'm not going to read too much into that performance, because even if Cleveland had been "firing on all cylinders," it wasn't likely going to win that game anyways. And the Browns knew that. In fact, I'd argue that they used it almost as a pre-season warm-up and I expect a much stronger performance from Baker Mayfield and company in Week 2. 

The pick: It's asking a lot of this young QB to now go on the road and try to win this "Battle of Ohio" vs. this desparate and veteran Browns club. I think Burrow is going to be in for a surprise tonight when he sees how difficult this Browns defense is on its home field. Additionally note that Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring six points or less and allowing 30 points or more in a loss in its last outing. Lay the points!

This is a 10* TOUCH-DOWN on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: This has been a very defensive series, but after falling 2-1 in double OT last time out, I expect the Lightning to push the pace of Game 6 from start to finish, so as to avoid having to go to a decisive Game 7. The Islanders have been fantastic to this point in slowing down the pace of this series, but after expending so much energy in their Game 5 win, one has to wonder just how much gas is left in the tank for the Islanders?!

The pick: Finally note that Tampa has seen the total go "oer" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring one or less goals in an OT loss in its previous outing, while the Isles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last nine after allowing one or less goals in an OT victory in their last outing. Look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later!

This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CONER on the OVER Lightning/Islanders.

The set-up: Boston looked pretty good through three quarters, but the Heat hung around the entire time and as they've done so often in the bubble, they had a big fourth quarter and managed to tie it up and then win SU in overtime. While that contest was destined to fly "over" despite an OT frame, I think that Game 2 definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. The Celtics are one of the best defensive clubs in the league and I simply can't see the Heat shooting 50 percent from range for a second straight contest. 

The pick: Boston has seen the total go "under" in 11 of it slast 14 games, including in eight of then during the playoffs and I expect this now desparate defensive minded club to double down on that end of the court. Miami is adaptable team, if you want to "run and gun," it's able to do that, but it's just as comfortable running half court sets and full court pressure as well. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Heat/Celtics.

The set-up: I had a play on the Mets last night, but I think that the Phillies will bounce back here with their ace on the mound. Yes Philadelphia's bullpen stinks, but it gets a couple key sluggers back for this contest and I think that Aaron Nola is being severely undervalued in this spot. Nola would typically be a -180 favorite in this spot, but the weird abbreviated 2020 season has somewhat leveled the playing field it would seem this year. Seth Lugo has been great so far for the Mets, but he enters off a loss to the Jays, allowing three runs over five innings. 

The pick: Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot, but I think this matchup highly favors the Phillies. Nola is 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 starts vs. the Mets lifetime and I look for him to improve on that win/loss record right here. Lay the short price!

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: The Yanks are dominating right now and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here as they try to deliver the knock out blow from the now floundering Jays. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chase Anderson (0-1, 5.40 ERA) who has conceded ten runs over his last 6 2/3's innings of work spanning two starts. The Jays have been outscored 40-10 in losing three straight games now. 

The pick: Masahiro Tanaka (2-2, 3.16) allowed one run over five innings in a victory over Baltimore in his last outing. Tanaka has allowed two runs or less in six of his eight stars and he's 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 21 career outings vs. Toronto. I'm laying the price and expecting a blowout of epic proportions!

This is a 6* BLOWOUT on the New York Yankees.

The set-up: After yesterday's loss and considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I'm going to lay the price for what I expect to be a completely lop-sided victory for the home side once it's all said and done. Arizona hands the ball to Caleb Smith (0-0, 3.00 ERA) who makes his second start for the D-Back after coming over from Miami. Smith gave up one run over three innings in his debut on Friday, but I think he'll predictably struggle here with the larger work load and in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Dylan Bundy counters for the Angels and he's 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA overall. Bundy though enters on top form currently, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA over his last rhee outings. Also interesting to note that the Angels are 6-3 in his starts, compared to just 14-26 in all other games. This is a great indicator and I expect this strong trend of domination to continue in this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence. 

This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the LA Angels.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in yesterday's 20-6 victory for the Yanks. In these team's previous series vs. each other in Buffalo two of three went "under" the number and I expect that after yesterday's big explosion, that we're going to see much more of a "duel" on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.60 ERA), who faced the Yanks last Wednesday and who allowed two runs over four innings. Overall Roark is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts vs. New York.

The pick: He'll be opposed by Yanks' ace Gerritt Cole (5-3, 3.20) who comes in off a complete game effort vs. the Orioles, halting a three-game losing streak, while going on to strike out nine. Finally note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 18 of its last 26 after scoring 20 or more runs in a victory vs. an opponent in its previous outing. I expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Jays/Yanks.

The set-up: These teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but off yesterday's loss, I like the Mets to bounce back here with their ace on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-1, 1.67 ERA) and he'll be eager to help his team avoid a fourt-straight loss. The Phillies moved back to .500 with their win yesterday, but they remained very injured, including to outfielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto. In 16 starts lifetime vs. the Phillies, deGro mis 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA. 

The pick: It's difficult to say anything negative about Phillies' starter Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.47), but I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. As note that New York is 7-2 in its last nine after four or more straight losses. This one sets up very well for deGrom and desperate visiting side. Lay the reasonable price!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Mets.

The set-up: So far every single game of this series has either gone "under" or "pushed." Denver also closed out its series vs. the Jazz playing to two straight "unders," meaning that for all intents and purposes, the Nuggets have seen the total go "under" in eight straight. The Clippers are on the brink of elimination here after being up 3-1 and if they don't find a way to play a full four quarters of intense basketball, the Clippers/Lakers matchup everyone wanted will not happen. Denver is adaptable to its play style, so from a situational stand point, I think Game 7 sets up as more of a "track meet," then a "chess match." 

The pick: Additionally note that the Clippers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS setbacks. This number is too low.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Denver/LA.

The set-up: The Rockies have the odds stacked against them to make the playoffs, as they'll need to start stringing wins together immediately. One game at a time from here on out. The A's will be in the playoffs and while they're the "better" team on paper in this matchup admittedly, I think that this sets up great for the home side from a situational stand point. As note that Oakland has played ten games in the last seven days, including a double header in Seattle yesterday, losing the first game 6-5 in the ninth inning, before then clobbering the M's 9-0 in the night-cap. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?

The pick: I think these starting pitchers are a "wash," so let's throw that factor out the window. Note though that the A's are just 2-7 in their last nine after an eight runs or greater in their last outing. Great value here on the home side!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Colorado Rockies.

The set-up: New York will have to go on the attack today to stave off elimination. That'll leave it susceptible on the back end to the opportunistic Lightning. I simply can't see how the Islanders can "sit back" and wait for the Lightning to make a mistake, they're going to have to press from start to finish, even if they have the lead. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a faster-paced affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that the Islanders have seen the total go "over" the number in nine of their last 12 after scoring one goal or less in a three goals or larger loss in their previous outing. This number is a little low.

This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Islanders/Lightning.

The set-up: These teams have only met in one other series, just last week and the Jays took two of three. The Yanks won the final game of that series and they just finished beating the Orioles in four straight, including outscoring them 23-3 in the process. 

The pick: Taijuan Walker and Deivi Garcia have both been excellent for the most part in their limited time for their teams, but the problem is is that these talented hitting line-ups "saw" them just last week and I think that'll lead to trouble the second time around. While two of three fell "under" in their first series against each other, I believe that this first game in New York definitely sets up as a "slug-fest." 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Jays/Yankees.

The set-up: With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel that these teams are very evenly matched. And these two teams are. Both have great coaches and each is filled with talent that can put the ball in the hoop. Each is also extremely committed to the defensive side of things. So why will Miami win/cover in Game 1? I believe for sure that the few extra days off after taking care of the Bucks in five games is HUGE right now. The Celtics on the other hand just went through an exhausting seven game series vs. Boston and after that emotional win, I think a letdown here is imminent. 

The pick: Note that Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with four or more whole days off. As primarily a situational handicapper, this particular one sets up fantastically for the Heat in my opinion.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Miami Heat.

The set-up: Dallas has an opportunity to eliminate the Knights and advance to the promised land and so far it's done a great job in slowing down this high-powered Vegas offense. It's not been for a lack of trying for Vegas either, which outshot Dallas 33-20 in Game 4, including 13-5 in the first period. Dallas was one of the best defensive clubs during the regular season, but the Knights were one of the best on offense. I think Vegas though is going to be forced to push the pace from start to finish, which will in turn leave it susceptible on the backend to the opportunistic Stars. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a shootout in my opinion. 

The pick: Also note though that Vegas has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine after scoring one goal or less in a loss to an opponent in its previous outing. Considering all of the above info, I definitely expect this one to fly "over" sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Dallas/Vegas.

The set-up: Both teams are mashing the ball right now. Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.40 ERA) has dominated the Twins in the past, while Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.30) has struggled mightily in two career starts vs. Minnesota. But that was then, and this is now. I think that's definitely the case, as Cease has matured and is now confidently coming into his prime and reaching his potential. Berrios has been solid, but inconsistent this season and I think that'll play a part here. Chicago is in the midst of a playoff race, while the Twins enter contented with a 3.5 game lead on Cleveland: "Definitely we are in really good shape," Minnesota designated hitter Nelson Cruz said. "We're coming."

The pick: Note that Chicago is 7-2 in its last nine as a home dog in the +110 to +135 range as well. I'm banking on Cease finally "getting off the schneid" vs. Minnesota here. Great value on the hungry and hard-hitting home side here today.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: Pittsburgh finished 8-8 last year after QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury in the second game. The Steelers have Big Ben back, but I think Pittsburgh still has many issues to address and resolve before I feel too comfortable in laying a large spread on the road, especially on Opening night. Granted, the Giants have more questions than answers as well, but I still think the pieces are in place for the home side to keep this one competitive. 

The pick: These teams averaged similar amount of points last year, but the Giants were a train-wreck defensively. New York picked up a few key pieces for the unit this year and I think it has a big opportunity here facing what should be a very "rusty" Roethlisberger. I like the dynamic offensive combination of QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquaon Barkley to at the very least, keep this one close enough for the home side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. 

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Tyrod Taylor starts as QB for the Chargers, while Joe Burrow will be under center for the Bengals. LA has issues with its offensive line, which doesn't look good for Taylor to start the season. The main back in LA is Austin Ekeler, who had 557 yards and three TD's last season. The Chargers' defense was its strength last year, but I think it'll have its hands full with this Bengals' offense which has something to prove in Week 1. 

The pick: AJ Green is back and ready to put on a show after an injury plagued 2019. RB Joe Mixon had 1,137 yards and five TD's last year. The defense finished ninth overall last year as well. Finally note that the Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Week 1 contests, while the Chargers are a disappointing 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing the role of favorite. While the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can!

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cinncinnati Bengals.

The set-up: I had a play on the Islanders in Game 3 and that big underdog pick cashed for us. In Game 4 I'm going to recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. If you haven't had a chance to read my analysis on that Game 3 victory, I believe it's worth doing so now, as the logic behind that selection for the most part also directly applies to this one: The set-up: New York threw in the "white towel" in its Game 1 loss, in which it was humbled 8-2. The Islanders came out fying in Game 2 and posted an early goal, which held late into the third period. The Lightning then scored with only eight seconds remaining in regulation to win the game. Do I think that the Islanders are going to get swept in this series? I absolutely do not. New York is well coached, it's disciplined, it's deep and it's blessed with World class goaltending. Tampa is the better team on paper and on the ice, but I think it has a mental letdown here vs. this determined and now very desperate Islanders team.

The pick: Finally note as well that the Islanders are 8-3 in their last 11 after back-to-back losses. This is essentially "do or die" for the Islanders, as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for it to climb out of. I look for New York to get back into this one with a resounding victory!

The pick: In a contest which I think'll come down to the wire (or even be decided in extra time!), I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance!

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the Islanders PUCK LINE.

The set-up: So far every game in this series has gone "under" the number (one game "pushed" for some), but I think that trend is going to change finally in Game 6. Denver just doesn't quit, I had a play on the Nuggets in Game 5 and while I said in my analysis that I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, but I have to say that I am in fact a little surprised. That said, the Nuggets proved in their previous series than they're not ever going to "give up," as they were also down 1-3 vs. the Jazz, before then rolling off three straight victories. That's going to be much more difficult to accomplish I think though vs. this deeper and vastly superior Clippers team though. LA will be out to push the pace of Game 6 from start to finish, as it'll be very worried about letting Denver get back into this series. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that Game 6 does indeed finally set up as a higher-scoring "over." 

The pick: Note as well that the Clippers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to back-to-back "unders." Expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

This is a 10* TOTAL U OF THE U on the OVER Clippers/Nuggets.

The set-up: The Ravens went 14-2 last year and they're one of the favorites to come out of the AFC this season. The Browns went 6-10, but they're expected to do a bit better thi syear. Cleveland has a new head coach though with a few new systems and I think that's going to translate into early struggles in this difficult road environment. I heard a lot of people suggest that the limited practice time heading up to the regular season would benefit the defenses, but I'll argue that veteran and well oiled offensive units can "flip the script" on that line of thinking and take advantage of defensive units which enter the season a step behind. Cleveland's strength last year was in fact its defense, but I think the unit is going to be in for a long day vs. Jackson and company. 

The pick: Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 1 games (the Browns are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Week 1 games!), while Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six on the road. Baltimore outscored its oppposition by an average of 15.5 points per game last year and all signs point to a similar "rocking chair" victory for it in Week 1 as well. Lay the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Baltimore Ravens.

The set-up: I like the Packers offense, but "chemistry" is going to be an issue early on for both teams in my opinion. The Packers offense is a well oiled machine and I think it can calmly control the pace of this contest vs. the Vikings' defense, which has many new faces. Expect to see a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for the home side, who had 1,135 yards and 13 TD's last year. 

The pick: Note that the "under" has hit in 15 of Minnesota's last 23 at home and in its last five at home vs. the Packers, while Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten overall dating back to last season. I expect a highly competitve football game, but one which falls well below the number once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Packers/Vikings.

The set-up: Dallas took Game 1. Vegas took Game 2. The Stars took Game 3. I believe that this pattern continues, as I look for Las Vegas to dig deep and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Knights are favored again to win by Vegas and I think for good reason. Dallas has played the Knights well so far, but Las Vegas is deep and it's talented and I think its high-powered offense is going to show up in a big way today.

The pick: Note as well that the Knights are 7-2 in their last nine after scoring one goal or less in a loss in their previous outing, while the Stars are 4-7 in their last 11 after holding their opponent to one goal or less in a one goal victory in their previous outing. Lay the price, expect a rout!

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Knights.

The set-up: Colorado prevailed 8-4 last night and I think it'll post a similar victory on Saturday as well. The visitors hand the ball to Jaime Barria (0-0, 3.38 ERA) who was 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA last year, splitting time between the majors and minors. I think the sample size is too small for Barria in 2020 and that regression is imminent. 

The pick: The Rockies hand the ball to southpaw Kyle Freeland (2-1, 3.60) who enters off a gem vs. the hard-hitting Padres on MOnday, allowing three hits and striking out six over six scoreless in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Over 50 innings Freeland has a very respectable 1.36 WHIP and 34:14 K:BB. I think Freeland should easily beat his counterpart here and that's the difference for me. Lay the very reasonable price on the home side in this one.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Colorado Rockies.

The set-up: While three of four in this series have fallen "under" the number, I believe that Game 5 definitely sets up as a high-scoring "shootout." Houston has seen the total go "over" in 14 of its last 21 after losing by ten points or more in its prevoius outing, while the Lakers have seen the total fly over in seven of their last 11 after back-to-back ATS/SU victories.

The pick: I primarily base my O/U picks on "situations." With their backs against the wall, the Rockets have to get out and push the pace of this one from start to finish. This number is a little low.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Lakers.

The set-up: The Braves have been crushing the ball of late and while they've seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, including the first two of this series, I think Saturday's contest finally sets up as a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.40 ERA) who has been sharp in the time that he's been given, posting 18 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. 

The pick: The home side counters with Patrick Corbrin (2-4, 4.34 ERA), who is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA in all of his games thrown in the Nation's capital. He faced the Braves last month and got rocked for five runs over five innings, only the second time in eight starts that he's allowed more than five runs. I like Corbin to bounce back here at home and I thikn that Andreson maintains his recent form as well. Additionally note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs." This number is a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Braves/Nationals.

The set-up: This is a big game for Florida State. The Seminoles have endured back-to-back poor seasons under Willie Taggert, but he's out this season and Mike Norvell is in. Norvell was extremely successful as the head coach at Memphis last year, leading it to an AAC title while averaging 40.5 points in the process. Georiga Tech switched up its offense last year under then first year head coach Geoff Collins, but it's hard to imagine this rebuilding visiting side doing much better than it's 3-9 record from 2019. James Graham returns under center for GT, or does he? In fact, as of writing this the Yellowjackets haven't even named their starting QB. GT's defense was one of the worst in the country and while it should improve, it won't be too dramatically. Unfortunately this year GT is being thrown to the wolves this season, without any non-conference "cream-puffs" to warm up on. 

The pick: FSU has its No. 1 QB back (James Blackmon) and its top receiver in Tamorrian Terry back and ready to prove themselves. The Seminoles were poor defensively last year, but ten of 11 starters are back and I think that spells big trouble for the QB-less Jackets. GT is a "Power 5" team in name only, the product on the field today is going to be a sub-par and I think the Seminoles will take FULL advantage. Lay the points.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on FSU.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 6 and obviously I feel "lucky" that it got to OT. Game 6 likely should have gone "under" the number, but I definitely expect Game 7 to be a wide open affair. These two teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment which is clearly shared by the oddsmakers with a spread like this. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win, but for this one I target the total. 

The pick: This is by far the lowest total posted so far in this series, but I expect it to blast past the number sooner, rather than later. As note, Boston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 13 after allowing 120 points or more in an OT loss vs. an opponent. Toronto has to be feeling confident now and I expect that to translate into production on the court. In my opinion, this one eclipses the posted total as the game comes down the stretch.

This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Celtics/Raptors.

The set-up: New York threw in the "white towel" in its Game 1 loss, in which it was humbled 8-2. The Islanders came out fying in Game 2 and posted an early goal, which held late into the third period. The Lightning then scored with only eight seconds remaining in regulation to win the game. Do I think that the Islanders are going to get swept in this series? I absolutely do not. New York is well coached, it's disciplined, it's deep and it's blessed with World class goaltending. Tampa is the better team on paper and on the ice, but I think it has a mental letdown here vs. this determined and now very desperate Islanders team.

The pick: Finally note as well that the Islanders are 8-3 in their last 11 after back-to-back losses. This is essentially "do or die" for the Islanders, as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for it to climb out of. I look for New York to get back into this one with a resounding victory!

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Islanders.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 4 and while that came up short, so too did the Nuggets. Denver was down 3-1 to the Jazz in its opening round series, before then posting three straight victories. Anything is possible, but the likliehood of that happening again is very slim. I don't think it's going to happen and Denver may well even lose this game outright, but I absolutely expect the Nuggets to fight hard, risking life and limb today to try and stay alive. LA has gotten fantastic and new flawless play from everyone over the last two games and I think its poised for a bit of a mental "letdown" in Game 5.

The pick: Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after being held to 88 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. I expect Denver to push the pace and to at the very least, keep this one close until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: Jacob deGrom (3-1, 1.69 ERA) of the Mets is one of the best pitchers in the World, but I still think that his hungry counterpart can match him inning for inning and in a situation like that, I feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. Toronto counters with Chase Anderson (0-0, 4.94) who won't be lacking for motivation here as he tries to get off the schneid. 

The pick: Note that two of the Jays' sluggers have done very well vs. deGrom in the past, as both Travis Shaw and Randal Grichuk are batting .375 in eight at-bats apiece vs. him. Additionally note that Anderson is a very respectable 2-2 with a 3.93 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mets. Both teams are in the hunt, but I believe the Jays offer great value to pull off the upset here on Friday night!

This is a 10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Toronto Blue Jays.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some fairly high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that Friday's game sets up as more of a lower-scoring "under." The Braves go with Josh Tomlin (2-2, 3.77 ERA), who is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Erick Fedde (1-3, 5.29) gets the call for the home side and he's not fared as well against his opponent in the past. I'll point out though that the Nationals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after allowing seven or more runs in a home loss to an opponent in their previous outing. I think this one sneaks "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Braves/Nats.

The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over," but I think that the finale will end in a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May (1-1, 2.88 ERA) who has been sharp for sure this season and who has faced the D-Backs one other time. May has a big opportunity to pad his stats here vs. a dejected Arizona side which has lost five in a row and is officially eliminated from playoff contention. 

The pick: The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (0-4, 8.44) who makes his second start since returning from the ten-day DL. Bumgarner is obviously not happy at all with the way things have unfolded this year, the veteran though will look to personally close out strong as he prepares for next season. Bumgarner enters having gone 15-14 with a sharp 2.72 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Dodgers. I think this is a great "situational" play.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs.

The set-up: The Texans are sizeable underdogs on Thursday night, but I think the visitors will be able to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. These two teams played twice last year. The Texans won 31-24 as a 3.5 point underdog in the first game, while the they lost 51-31 in the second (after having a 24-0 lead in the first half!) Houston went 10-6 last year and it now has a new head coach in Bill O'Brien. DeShaun Watson is gone, which is obviously a blow to the offense, but with DeShaun Watson under center and with David Johnson in the backfield and playing with a chip on his shoulder, Houston has a strong foundation to work with on the offensive side of the ball. Note Randall Cobb will have plenty of opportunity this season to fill the void left by Watson. Houston welcomes back defensive juggernaut JJ Watt, who is now fully recovered from his injury which saw him miss eight games last year. 

The pick: The Chiefs went 12-4 last year en route to the Super Bowl victory. KC is once again favored to win the Super Bowl this year, but after going over it's team O/U total for seven straight years and with a target on its back each and every week and with the most difficult schedule it's faced in a decade, I think that regression is imminent. Winning makes you complacent. Does Patrick Mahomes have the drive and determination that he had before he won the Super Bowl and the biggest contract in sports history? That remains to be seen. I think Houston is filled with talent that won't be rolling over on the national stage. Outright victory? I'm not calling for it, but everything to me points to this one coming right down to the wire.

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: The first two games of this series have fallen well below the posted number, with the Stars winning Game 1 by a score of 1-0, before the Knights prevailed 3-0 in Game 2. These two teams are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and each possesses World class goaltending. That said, the Stars did come into this series as the highest scoring team in the playoffs and the Knights were right behind them. Lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally correcting themselves over the short, mid and long-term and after only four goals having been scored over the first two games total, I look for that low-scoring trend to end in a big way in Game 3.

The pick: Additionally note that the Stars have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after getting shutout and allowing three or more goals in a loss in their previous outing. This one has "over" written all over it!

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Knights/Stars.

The set-up: Yes UAB crushed Central Arkansas 45-35 at home last weekend, but I think the Blazers will have a much more difficult time vs. this Hurricanes team which went a sub-par 6-7 last year. Tyler Johnson III is a decent QB and Spencer Brown a good RB, but I believe they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Miami fans have a lot to be excited about this season, as D'Eriq King transferred over from Houston. King is a dynamic QB and he's going to want to prove himself here. The Miami Florida defense lost a few starters, but overall the unit remains a strenght of the team. I have a hard time seeing UAB keeping up to King and company down the stretch. Lay the points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Florida.

The set-up: Houston dominated in Game 1, but since then it's been all the Lakers. I think though that Houston is going to give its best shot here to try and get back into this series and while I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Lakers have used their size well over the last two games, but Houston has done well in this spot for bettors over the year, as note that it's 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a ten point or larger loss to an opponent in its last outing. 

The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a ten points or larger victory in their last outing. I think the desperation level in which the hungry Rockets play with tonight turns out to be the difference maker. Grab the points!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Houston Rockets.

The set-up: While yesterday's game had 19 runs scored, I believe that Wednesday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 1.50 ERA) who threw six scoreless vs. these very D-Backs just last week. Overall Kershaw is a spectacular 18-10 with a 2.69 ERA in 35 starts vs. Arizona. 

The pick: Taylor Clarke (1-0, 2.96) counters for the D-Backs and in six career appearances vs. the Dodgers he's a pedestrian 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. I'll point out though that Arizona has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss to an opponent in its previous outing. I think Arizona's issues at the plate once again come back to haunt it here. Expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

The is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs.

The set-up: Game 3 "pushed" right on the O/U line, but I believe Game 4 sets up as more of a "shootout." Both teams are filled with talent. Each team can score with the best of them out there and each team is equally as skilled defensively. So why is Game 4 going to go over? Denver has seen the total go "under" in four straight now, after beating Utah 80-78 in Game 7 of its opening round series. But I think that changes here, as note that two of their three in the regular season series flew "over" the number this year, including in the Clippers 124-111 win back on August 12th. 

The pick: Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after having not played to an "under" in three or more straight games, while also coming off a loss in its previous outing. Expect a wide open, faster-paced "over" in this series finally!

The is an 8* O/U SUPER BLOWOUT on the OVER Clippers/Nuggets.