The set-up: I think we’re getting a great price on the veteran Jon Lester on his home field in this particular matchup. The visitors see Eric Lauer toe the rubber. Chicago is 5-1 since the All Star Break, while the Padres are 1-5. 

The pitchers: Lauer (5-7, 4.04 ERA) has been decent of late, but in his only start vs. the Cubs he was shelled for five runs off five hits over two innings last season. 

Lester (9-6, 3.74) has made eight career starts vs. San Diego and he’s gone 3-1 with a 3.78 ERA, allowing 18 runs and 12 walks with 36 K’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is now a poor 21-28 (-10.2 units) this year following a loss, while Chicago is 20-6 (+11 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think we’re getting a great price on this one.

8* DESTRUCTION on the Cubs.

The set-up: A couple of hungry veteran hurlers square off against each other in the final game on Thursay night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, while the home side counters with Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA) is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts vs. San Francisco. 

Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86) is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts and he’s never lost to the Mets in his career, going 6-0 with a 2.00 ERA over eight times opposed, including 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in New York.

The pick: Both teams come in off double-digit victories in their previous outings, with the Mets beating Minnesota 14-4 and the Giants getting the better of Colorado 11-8. The opener of this one though has duel written all over it my opinion. This number is high, play the under. 

9* PITCHERS DUEL

The set-up: Yesterday’s game was rained out so the team’s will play a double-header today. This is a play on the Yankees in the first game. New York has won 11 of its last 16 games. That’s a tall order for Tampa starter Yonny Chirinos to deal with this afternoon. The home side goes with Domingo German. 

The pitchers: Chirinos (8-4, 3.11 ERA) has been solid in a starters role, going 3-3 with a 3.04 ERA over nine straight appearances. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

German (11-2, 3.40) is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.75 ERA over two starts since returning from a hip injury, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Jays on Friday. 

The pick: New York leads the season series 10-5 and I look for the home side to extend that record here in the early game. Lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER

The set-up: Eduardo Rodriguez has had issues for Boston this year, but overall the hard-throwing right-hander has been solid. The Jays’ Aaron Sanchez has been a complete train-wreck though and I think he’ll struggle in this difficult road venue.

The pitchers: Sanchez (3-13, 6.22 ERA) has lost each of his last nine starts and 12 straight decisions while posting a deplorable 8.05 ERA in the process. 

Rodriguez (10-4, 4.43) comes in off his best start of the year, striking out ten and giving up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Dodgers. 

The pick: After yesterday’s 10-4 victory, I believe the Jays have a predictable letdown here; lay the 1.5 runs for the “pick em” price. 

BOSTON RL

The set-up: The Padres fell 12-7 last night, but I think they’ll bounce back in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to dynamic rookie Chris Paddack, while the Fish go with the struggling Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Paddack (5-4, 2.84 ERA) is 4-3 with a 2.99 ERA in all “night” games this season. 

Richards (3-10, 4.18) comes in on the heels of a five-game losing streak. 

The pick: San Diego is desperate here as it looks to avoid a five-game losing streak. Note as well that the Padres are 12-7 (+8.9 units) in their last 19 after allowing 12 runs or more in their previous contest, while the Fish are still just 5-18 (-10.8 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay it.

SD

The set-up: The Tribe’s offense is firing on all cylinders right now and Cleveland comes into this one sitting 13 games over .500. Over its last 11 games Cleveland has gone 9-2 and hit 20 homers and plated 66 runs. The lowly visiting side hands the ball to Spencer Turnbull, while the home side goes with Mike Clevinger. 

The pitchers: Turnbull (3-8, 3.59 ERA) has faced the Indians three times this year and he’s 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA. 

Clevinger (2-2, 3.99) comes in off back-to-back strong outings, most recently holding the Twins to one run off four hits over five innings on Friday. 

The pick: Detroit’s offense is last in the league with only 335 runs and 724 hits. Turnbull returned from the IL last Friday and he got shelled for five runs off four hits over three innings in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Friday. This one has “blowout” written all over it, so lay the 1.5 runs and expect a rout.

INDIANS RL

The set-up: San Francisco has taken the first three games of this four game series, but enough is enough as far as Colorado is concerned obviously. San Francisco sends Shaun Anderson to the hill for this one, while the home side counters with Jon Gray. 

The pitchers: Anderson (3-2, 4.48 ERA) has been decent this year, going 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA over his last eight starts, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Gray (9-6, 2.88) has dominated the Giants already this season, holding them to just one run over 12 2/3’s innings opposed. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but San Fran is still just 16-21 in all day games, while Colorado is still 9-2 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Lay the price.

ROCKIES

The set-up: In a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to lay the “pick em” price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. New York held on for a 3-2 win last night and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Jason Vargas on the hill, while the home side goes with Martin Perez.

The pitchers: Vargas (3-5, 4.23 ERA) is 8-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 20 career games vs. Minnesota. 

Perez (8-3, 4.26) most recently gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings in a win over the Rangers in July 5th. 

The pick: Note that Vargas is in fact 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in his last four starts vs. the Twins. The Twins are sliding and I believe that regression continues. Grab the 1.5 runs.

METS RL

The set-up: The NL Central is tightly packed at the moment. The Pirates are out of last place after last night’s victory over the Cards, while St. Louis is now three games out of first place and only 3.5 games out of last place. After yesterday’s loss though, I expect the home side to respond in the finale of this series. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the home side goes with Daniel Ponce de Leon. 

The pitchers: Archer (3-6, 5.42 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs in his last outing. 

Ponce de Leon (1-0, 1.99) received a no-decision in his last start as well, giving up one run off three hits while striking out seven and walking one. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 22-33 vs. teams with winning records and only 10-14 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while St. Louis is 15-7 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion. Great value on the hungry home side.

Cards. 

The set-up: The Mets made a late over night pitching change with Zach Wheeler on the trading block, Steven Matz will now take his place on Tuesday night. The advantage swings to Michael Pineda and the home side in my opinion. 

The pitchers: Matz (5-6, 4.89 ERA) posted a terrible 7.36 ERA over six June starts. 

Pineda (6-4, 4.56) is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA over two career starts vs. the Mets. 

The pick: The Mets are only 19-32 on the road, while the Twins are 28-15 at home. No upsets here, as the struggling Matz is being thrown the wolves on short notice in this one. Lay the price.

8*

The set-up: Lance Lynn leads the league in wins this year and I think he’ll keep the good times rolling in this favorable interleague matchup in front of the home town crowd. The visitors counter with Alex Young.

The pitchers: Young (2-0, 0.68 ERA) has looked great in his limited time, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie, who makes his third career start here. 

Lynn (12-4, 3.69) has won five straight starts, including going eight scoreless in a victory over the Rays on June 28th. Lynn has dominated the D-Backs throughout his career as well, going 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. them. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 4-9 (-2.4 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or more, while Texas is 14-6 (+5.9 units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher. I love Lynn in this spot and will lay the price with confidence. 

10*

The set-up: This is the opener of a three-game set. This is the start of a seven game trip for San Diego, which series upcoming at the Cubs and Mets. The visitors hand the ball to Logan Allen, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto. 

The pitchers: Allen (2-1, 4.50 ERA) last pitched on July 1st and he was rocked for six runs off seven hits over four innings. 

Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24) most recently went six scoreless vs. the Braves on July 5th. The rookie has been awesome so far, but clearly the sample size is still too small and I think that a letdown is imminent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego has seen the total go over the number in seven of nine already this year with a money line in the -100 to -150 range, while Miami has seen the total fly over the number in 13 of 21 vs. southpaws. This number is low, play the over.

8* 

The set-up: Two starters who have struggled for the most part this year collide in the opener of this three-game series on Monday night and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, while the home side counters with Miles Mikolas. 

The pitchers: Musgrove (6-7, 4.15 ERA) conceded eight runs off six hits with five walks over three innings in a loss to the Cardinals on May 9th. 

Mikolas (5-9, 4.53) has just one win in his last ten starts and he most recently gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants.

The pick: This is a big series for both teams. St. Louis three games behind the Cubs, while the Pirates sit three games behind the Cards. Pittsburgh was just swept by Chicago, so it certainly won’t be lacking for motivation. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it.

8* OVER Bucs/Cards

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I think Lucas Giolito will easily get the better of his “on again, off again” counterpart and I expect the hungry visiting side to take advantage. 

The pitchers: Giolito (11-3, 3.15 ERA) has dominated the Royals over four starts this year, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and posting 34 K’s over 25 innings. 

Jakob Junis (4-8, 5.33) does not have a victory since May 30th. Over five career starts vs. the White Sox he owns a poor 5.34 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Giolito is also 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA in ten career starts vs. Kansas City. Lay the very reasonable price on the vastly superior pitcher.

8* WHITE SOX

The set-up: LA is 62-23 this year after its 7-4 win over the Red Sox last night. Philadelphia beat the Nationals 4-3 on Sunday. Zach Eflin gets the call for the home side, while LA hands the ball to Clayton Kershaw. 

The pitchers: Kershaw (7-2, 3.09 ERA) earned a no-decision in his last start, giving up two runs over seven innings vs. the Padres. In 14 regular season starts vs. the Phillies he owns a tiny 2.83 ERA. 

Eflin (7-8, 3.78) got rocked for seven runs over three innings in a 12-6 loss to the Braves in his last start. He’s a poor 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA in four career match ups vs. the Dodgers. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 40-21 already this year following a victory, while Philadelphia is just 10-14 (-6.5 units) vs. southpaws. Look for Kershaw to easily out duel his erratic counterpart.

10* LA DODGERS. 

The set-up: I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs. Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with David Price. 

The pitchers: Ryu (10-2, 1.73 ERA): "He's been the epitome of consistency," LA manager Dave Roberts. "He's been the best pitcher in the National League."

Price (7-2, 3.24) has been the best pitcher on the team this year, but I still think he’s over-classed on the mound tonight.

The pick: LA bounced back from a series opening loss to win convincingly last night and while the outright win isn’t out of the question here either, in a contest which I see being decided late or in extra frames, I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs.

6* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT

The set-up:

The pitchers:

The pick: 

7* BALL BASHER

The set-up: Toronto pulled off a rare upset over the Yankees yesterday and it’ll be trying to do it again here. New York will be out to atone for that subpar effort and when the smoke does finally clear, I expect this total to sneak above the posted number. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. 

The pitchers: Stroman (5-9, 3.18 ERA) hasn’t pitched since June 29th because of a pectoral issue. Overall Stroman is 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA in 16 career starts vs. New York. 

Tanaka (5-5, 3.86) last took the mound on July 5th vs. Tampa Bay when he’d allow four runs off six hits over six innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jays have already seen the total go over the number in four of five this year on the road when the total is between 10 to 10.5, while the Yanks have seen the total soar over in five of seven at home when total is set in the same range. This number is a little low, play the over.

8* TOTAL ECLIPSE on the over Jays/Yankees.

The set-up: Kyle Freeland makes his first start back in the big leagues after a stint in the minors for the Rockies and I think he’ll make the most of it. Freeland went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA last year. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark. 

The pitchers: Roark (5-6, 3.51 ERA) had a “dud” of a performance in his final start before the break, giving up three home runs to the Brewers.

Freeland (2-6, 7.13) struggled in May, going 0-2 with a 10.17 ERA over six starts. 

The pick: I’ll call the starters a “wash,” but note that the Reds are still a poor 9-19 on the road this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while the Rockies are 14-4 (+8.3 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Lay the very reasonable price.

10* COACH’S CORNER Rockies.

The set-up: The Rangers came from behind to knock off the Astros 9-8 yesterday, but I think the division leaders will bounce back here. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, while the home side counters with Mike Minor. 

The pitchers: Miley (7-4, 3.28 ERA) beat the Rangers 4-2 on May 9th at home, allowing two runs off two hits with seven K’s over six innings. Houston is 5-4 in his last nine starts, despite Miley posting a sharp 3.04 ERA in that span.

Minor (8-4, 2.54) is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA over his last six starts. Difficult to say too many negative things about Minor, so I won’t bother. I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here vs. the hungry Astros. 

The pick: Additionally note that Houston is still 14-6 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Texas is just 24-30 in its last 54 after scoring nine or more runs. Look for the hungry Astros to get back on track after last night’s loss.

9* SITUATIONAL PITCHING BEAT-DOWN on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: The RedBlacks suffered a humbling 29-14 loss at home to the Blue Bombers last weekend and I believe they’ll take out their frustrations on the very contented Alouettes, who scored the 36-29 upset win at home over the Ti-Cats last time out. Montreal got 203 yards and three rushing TD’s from William Stanback last weekend, but I have a hard time seeing the RB producing the same effort here. Ottawa didn’t help itself last week either by posting 110 penalty yards on ten flags. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range, while Ottawa is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 vs. the division. The stage is set for a big bounce back performance for the RedBlacks. Lay the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC on Ottawa.

The set-up: The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the reasonable mid-sized price in my opinion. New York comes in off a satisfying 4-0 win in yesterday’s opener and I believe an even bigger blowout is in the cards here. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard, while the home side goes with JA Happ. 

The pitchers: Richard (1-5, 6.23 ERA) is so far 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA in two stars vs. the Yankees this season. Happ most recently allowed three runs over six innings in an 8-1 loss to the Orioles.

Happ (7-4, 5.02) is 14-4 with a 4.05 ERA overall since coming over to the Yankees from Toronto. Most recently he gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Rays. 

The pick: Happ has dominated his former team in the past, going 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four career starts vs. Toronto. I expect Happ to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the 1.5 runs.

8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on New York Yankees.

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the sheer talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with the steady Mike Fiers. 

The pitchers: Nova (4-7, 5.88 ERA) has the third worst ERA in the majors among qualifiers.

Fiers (8-3, 3.78) comes in on top form, having won six straight (he’s allowed just one earned run in each of his past four starts.) 

The pick: Fiers is also 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in six career match-ups for the Chi-Sox. I’m banking on Fiers continuing his domination of this match-up and I expect him to carry over his recent momentum in this favorable position. Lay the price.

7* Athletics

The set-up: The Giants closed the first half on a 5-1 run and they’re only 5.5 games back of a playoff spot as the second half gets underway. The Brewers scuffled down the stretch of the first half and they sit a half-game behind the Cubs for a playoff position. The break couldn’t have come at a worst time for San Fran in my opinion and it couldn’t have come at a better time for Milwaukee. The visitors hand the ball to rookie Shaun Anderson, while the home side goes with veteran Chase Anderson.

The pitchers: Shaun Anderson (3-2, 4.23 ERA) has allowed between two and four earned runs in all of his ten starts this season. 

Chase Anderson (4-2, 4.32) comes in on top form, having gone 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last 15 frames of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is still just 73-103 (-28.1 units) the last two years after a victory, while Milwaukee is still 11-5 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher. I’m expecting a blowout from start to finish.

8* BREWERS

The set-up: Neither of these veteran starters can be happy with how they’ve performed this year. Each side comes out rested after the break and I think that “home field” can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup once it’s all said and done. The Pirates hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the Cubs go with Yu Darvish.

The pitchers: Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) has only pitched beyond six innings twice this year. 

Darvish (2-4, 5.01) won’t be lacking for motivation here as he’s 0-6 in his career at Wrigley Field. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Pittsburgh is a poor 10-13 this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Chicago is a “lights out” 18-6 (+10.8 units) this year at home as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. Expect the Cubs to continue their dominance in this role to open the second half.

10* COACH’S CORNER Cubs

The set-up: I think the No. 21 ranked Elise Mertens is well worth the price here vs. the No. 54 ranked Barbara Strycova. Mertens advanced by beating Fiona Ferro in straight sets, Monica Niculescu in straight sets and Qiang Wang in three sets. Mertens is a solid 22-15 in 2019 so far, including 7-3 on grass. Strycova advanced by beating all three opponents in two sets (Lesya Tsurenko, Laura Siegmund and Kiki Bertens.) So far Strycova is 16-14 in 2019, including only 6-2 on grass. 

The pick: Mertens road to the fourth round has been more difficult and when these two squared off in New York in the third round back in 2018, she’d go on to dispatch Strycova in straight sets. Look for Mertens to use her experience at this level to take care of Strycova again and lay the price. 

The set-up: Chase Anderson of the Brewers squares off against Joe Musgrove of the Pirates in the final game before the Mid-Summer Classic. Both have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons though, I believe each will get chased early and because of that, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: Anderson (4-2, 4.31 ERA) is 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 16 career outings vs. Pittsburgh. 

Musgrove (6-7, 4.13) is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Brewers. 

The pick: Take it for what  you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 29 of its last 49 vs. right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh has seen the total sail over in 30 of 49 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Both teams are hungry for the series victory and everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” Play the over. 

Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates OVER

10* play

The set-up: San Diego improved to 1-1 in this series after last night’s 3-2 win, but I like LA to bounce back in the second to last game before the Mid Summer Classic. The visitors are going with rookie Chris Paddack on the hill, while the home side goes with Kenta Maeda.

The pitchers: Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA) has been sharp of late, allowing three runs over his last 11 innings of work. Paddack’s lone start vs. the Dodgers was a “dud” though, allowing six runs over four innings on May 14th. 

Maeda (7-4, 3.78) gave up two earned runs or less in four of five June starts. He’s 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Padres.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is still just 9-12 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while LA is still 37-10 as a home favorite. I think Paddack struggles again vs. this talented line-up and in this difficult road venue. Lay it.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: Whoever gets the start for the injured Bo Levi Mitchell, I expect the Stampeders to come out fired up as they look to fill the void of their offensive leader. It’s “next man up” in Calgary this weekend, as it likely turns to Nick Arbuckle to guide the show. Arbuckle helped lead the come-from-behind win over the Lions last weekend, connecting on all nine passes he threw for 93 yards and a TD. But Saskatchewan will be a tough out, as note that the Riders are riding the hot play of QB Cody Fajardo, who had a career-high 430 yards last week vs. Toronto.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 vs. clubs with losing records, while Saskatchewan has seen the total soar over in six of its last eight as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a little low.

Calgary Stampeders/Saskatchewan Roughriders OVER

10* play

The set-up: A couple of horrible teams go head to head here. Amazing the Chicago Fire has not won an MLS game away from friendly confines in their last 21 tries. Sporting Kansas City won’t be rolling over either though, as Chicago’s biggest flaw is its defense on the back-end. Kansas City lost its last game to LAFC 5-1 last time out, so defensive play is also a major concern for the home side. 

The pick: Chicago’s all time record on the road at Sporting Kansas City is 8W, 9D, 11L’s, 40 goals for and 40 goals against. I think the stage is set for a higher-scoring “goal-fest” in this one.

Sporting Kansas City/Chicago Fire OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Mets 7-2 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard.

The pitchers: Arrieta (8-6, 4.43 ERA) won his second straight start on Sunday, giving up four runs over six innings to beat the Marlins 13-6. 

Syndergaard (5-4, 4.56) returned from the IL last weekend and he received a no-decision after allowing three runs over five innings vs. the Braves.

The pick: New York has gone 13-23 since May 27th to fall out of contention and its relievers have posted an atrocious 8.01 ERA in that span. Look for Philadelphia to take advantage again.

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in highly motivated in the opener of this series. Colorado comes to town off a 2-4 home stand. Arizona has lost eight straight in this series and would clearly love nothing more than to break that string of futility. The hungry visiting side sends Antonio Senzatela to the hill, while the home side counters with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Senzatela (7-5, 4.83 ERA) is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in ten career appearances vs. Arizona spanning 42 innings of work. 

Greinke (5-3, 2.90) is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts vs. Colorado this year, allowing 21 hits and striking out 12 over 19 frames of work. 

The pick: Take it or what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over in 27 of 48 vs. right-handed starters this season and in 22 of 36 vs. the division, while Arizona has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. I think the writing is on the wall and a high-scoring “slug-fest” is in the cards. 

Colorado Rockies/Arizona DBacks OVER

10* play

The set-up: Karolina Muchova beat Madison Brengle in straight sets to advance. So far she’s won all four sets to this point. Her counterpart today is Anett Kontaveit, who I believe will find a way to get the job done here once it’s all said and done. Kontaveit also enters off a straight sets victory over her last opponent Heather Watson. 

The pick: Note that Kontaveit has won three of her last four matches on grass, and I believe the experience she brings to that medium will in fact be the difference maker here. This is also a “revenge” scenario for Kontaveit, as Muchova won the only previous match, which was in this year’s French Open (decided in three sets.) Revenge is a dish best served cold early on Friday morning. Lay the reasonable price.

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. MLB handicapping for the most part comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I feel that the massive talent gap on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the price on the road team here. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jose Berrios, while the A’s go with Tanner Anderson.

The pitchers: Berrios (8-4, 2.89 ERA) found out yesterday that he’s going to replace teammate Jake Odorizzi in the All Star Game. Berrios has struggled a bit of late, but I think he’ll close the first half strong. 

Anderson (0-3, 7.13) has been shelled for ten runs off 15 hits over his last 16 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is now a sharp 15-6 (+5.4 units) this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher, while Oakland is just 1-4 as a home dog of +125 or higher this year. Yes Berrios has admittedly struggled of late, but not nearly compared to Anderson. Look for Berrios to get the job done in this favorable spot.

Minnesota Twins

8* play

The set-up: The White Sox swept a double-header yesterday. The visitors turn to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Robin Lopez in the series finale Thursday afternoon. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-6, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Rangers on Wednesday, striking out 11. So far he’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in one start vs. the White Sox this year. 

Lopez (4-7, 6.12) is 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA in nine career starts vs. Detroit. Note that Lopez has been particularly effective vs. the Tigers this season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA while striking out 22 over 12 innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go under the number in all three games it’s played in this year on the road when the money line is between -100 and -150, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in 21 of 34 vs. the division. I think these two battle deep and this one stays well below the posted number.

Detroit Tigers/Chi. White Sox UNDER

10* play

The set-up: No upsets here early on Independence Day as I look for veteran Anibal Sanchez to ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd to a solid victory. The visitors go with Elieser Hernandez.

The pitchers: Hernandez (1-2, 4.07 ERA)comes in off his first win of the year, holding the Phillies to two runs over five innings. Hernandez is scheduled to be sent to the minors once Caleb Smith returns.

Sanchez (4-6, 3.82) comes in off a gem, striking out eight and allowing one run over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Tigers last Friday. 

The pick: Sanchez is the difference maker here, as the veteran is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and 32:5 K:BB over his last 35.1 innings of work. I think Hernandez takes a step back in this difficult road venue. Lay it.

Washington Nationals

5* play

The set-up: Fabio Fognini is ranked tenth in the World right now, while his counterpart Marton Fucsovics Fognini advanced in four sets over Frances Tiafoe. Fucsovics got by Dennis Novak in four sets to advance. 

The pick: Fognini comes into this one on top form, going 17-11 so far in 2019, including 1-0 on grass (last year he lost in the third round to Jiri Vesely in four sets.) Fucsovics is 18-17 this year and 3-2 on grass (last year Fucsovics lost to Julien Benneteau in the first round in three sets.) These two met in the second round in Vienna back in 2018 and Fucsovics pulled off the three set upset. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Lay the price.

The set-up: Alex De Minaur has had more consistent results than his older American counterpart Steven Johnson. Both players looked good in advancing to this point by beating their opponents in straight sets. 

The pick: Johnson’s inconsistencies on the big stage come back to bite him here in my opinion and I expect the young Australian’s defense to wear him down. Note that Johnson is 71st in the World and De Minaur is 29th. All things considered a very fair price. Lay it.

The set-up: Cincinnati is the worst team in the league, but Columbus is only a small notch above it. The Crew come in winless in their last five as well as losing four of those outright. Columbus has lost five straight on the road and it has the least number of scores on the road in the MLS. Real has plenty of issues as well, but it’s still in the hunt for a playoff spot and it definitely can not afford to look past this golden opportunity. And with a game vs. the Red Bulls up next, the home side definitely needs to make the most of this opportunity tonight. 

The pick: Note that 14 of the last 16 victories between the clubs have come for the home team. Additionally take note that the Crew haven’t won in Salt Lake since 2011. Don’t expect that trend of futility to end any time soon. Lay the price.

Real Salt Lake 

10* play

The set-up: A couple of veteran hurlers go toe-to-toe on the slab in this one and I’m expecting a lower-scoring under once it’s all said and done. The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the hill, while the A’s give the nod to Mike Fiers. 

The pitchers: Gibson (8-4, 4.21 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in four career starts vs. Oakland. 

Fiers (8-3, 4.01) has gone 8-2 since joining the A’s in Oakland and he’s 5-2 there this year. Overall Fiers has gone ten straight decisions without a loss, going 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA in the process (Fiers has also gone 6-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 11 career games vs. the Twins.)

The pick: The A’s won the opener 8-6, but considering all of the above factors, plus the fact that Minnesota has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten home games after allowing seven or more runs in its previous contest, then the “under” is definitely the correct call here in my opinion. 

Oakland A's/Minnesota Twins UNDER

8* play

The set-up: I had a play on the Indians last night and I think they carry that momentum over here in another favorable matchup. Cleveland comes in on top form, as it’s now 18-9 since June 1st. Mike Clevinger gets the call for the visitors and Danny Duffy goes for the home side.

The pitchers: Clevinger (1-2, 5.89 ERA) gave up seven earned runs over 1 2/3’s innings vs. Baltimore in his last start. It was his first start back from a lengthy stint on the DL, so I’m not going to read too much into one shaky outing. A date vs. the Royals is just what the doctor ordered as well for Clevinger, as note that he’s 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA in ten appearances vs. them.

Duffy (3-4, 4.43) is 2-10 with a 5.68 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Tribe. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is a sharp 16-10 (+3 units) vs. southpaws this year, while KC is a terrible 7-13 (-2.4 units) at home this season as an underdog of +125 or more. I like Clevinger to get back on track with a much better effort and for the Indians to continue their surge at the plate. Lay it.

Cleveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: Elina Svitolina and Margarita Gasparyan meet for the second in their careers in the second round of Wimbledon. Svitolina is ranked 8th in the World currently and has reached as high as No. 3, while Gasparyan is ranked 62nd and has reached as high as only 41st. Svitolina advanced by beating Daria Gavrilova 7-5, 6-0. The powerful Ukrainian has a solid 15-11 win/loss record in 2019. Gasparyan got by Anna-Lena Friedsman 6-4, 6-4 to advance. She is 14-12 this season. 

The pick: It’s revenge time for Svitolina though, who inexplicably lost to Gasparyan 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 in the first round in Birmingham in June. Revenge is a dish best served cold and this time around I expect Svitolina to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Lay the price.

Elina Svitolina

10* play

The set-up: Cleveland comes in focused to this series after losing two of three in Baltimore over the weekend. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the sheer talent discrepancy on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying this larger road price. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer, while the home side counter with Jakob Junis.

The pitchers: Bauer (6-6, 3.55 ERA) is 4-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. the Royals. 

Junis (4-7, 5.23) took the loss in Cleveland last week, getting shelled for four runs off nine hits, including two home runs (Junis is now 2-3 with a 5.89 ERA in eight appearances lifetime vs. Cleveland.) 

The pick: I’m giving a big nod to the Tribe at the plate and a big nod to the Indians on the mound and with those two crucial factors clearly working in their favor, I expect them to make the most of this favorable spot. Lay it.

Cleveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: Nationals’ pitcher Patrick Corbin has had a back-and-forth year for his new team, but he comes into this one on top form. I think Corbin carries that momentum over here and easily gets the better of his counterpart Zac Gallen.

The pitchers: Gallen (0-1, 3.60 ERA) gave up three runs over five innings in a home loss to Washington last week. It was his second big league start. 

Corbin (7-5, 3.71) has allowed just one run over seven innings over both of his last two starts. Note that Corbin was 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts vs. the Fish last year.

The pick: For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely believe that Corbin on the “run line” is the correct call. 

Washington Nationals -1.5

9* play

The set-up: I like Nikoloz Basilashvili to easily handle James Ward. Ward is ranked 182nd in the World and Basilashvili is ranked 16th. Ward of course is the “home town” boy in this match, as he’s played second fiddle to Andy Murray and Kyle Edmund for a while now. 

The pick: Ward simply doesn’t have the skills or athleticism to keep up Basilashvili, who I expect to move through easily here in straight sets. Lay the price with confidence and expect his big serve to be too much for Ward to handle down the stretch. Lay the price in this one.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

8* play

The set-up: Toronto won two in a row in the pre-season and then it had a Week 1 “bye.” Last weekend it lost its early momentum and looked flat in the embarrassing 64-14 home loss to the red hot Ti-Cats. With that awkward game out of the way, I believe the hungry visitors keep tonight’s contest much more competitive. Saskatchewan won’t be lacking for motivation either after back-to-back losses to open the 2019 campaign. 

The pick: The Riders looked decent in their 44-41 loss at Ottawa, as Cody Fajardo was 27 of 34 in the setback. However, I think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly and desperate visiting side. Note as well that Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a loss by 40 points or more, while Saskatchewan is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous outings. Grab the points.

Toronto Argonauts 

10* play

The set-up: It’s Canada Day and I think the home side is going to ride the wave of emotion to a solid victory North of the border this afternoon. The Royals overcame a 5-1 hole to win 7-6 yesterday, but I expect the Jays to respond here. The visitors hand the ball to Glenn Sparkman, while the home side goes with Clayton Richard.

The pitchers: Sparkman (2-3, 4.07 ERA) gave up three home runs and five runs in all over five innings in a loss to the Indians in his last start. 

Richard (0-4, 6.89) will look to get off the schneid vs. a team he’s had plenty of success against in the past, going 2-2 with a 3.95 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Royals. 

The pick: Before Sunday’s win the Royals had lost five in a row at the Rogers Centre. Expect that trend to continue here vs. the hungry home side. All things considered, a very fair price in my opinion. 

Toronto Blue Jays

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: Portland will be desperate here after winning just five games this season, including losing two of its last three. Portland though has only played two games at home this year, which has definitely attributed to its poor win/loss record. FC Dallas has taken a step back from last year, currently sitting in fourth place with 26 points. 

The pick: FC Dallas though has gone winless in its last four on the road and I think it’s going to have difficulties vs. this focused Portland side. The Timbers play with revenge here after the reverse fixture ended 2-1. Portland now has a long stretch of home games and I expect it to get things started off on the “right foot.” All things considered, a very fair price.

Portland Timbers

10* play

The set-up: Houston won 2-1 on Friday and 6-5 on Saturday. Suffice it to say I’m expecting a much more decisive victory in the finale, as Houston keeps the foot on the gas after a scuffling stretch. The home side goes with Gerrit Cole, while the visitors go with Marco Gonzales.

The pitchers: Cole (7-5, 3.42 ERA) is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA over five June starts and he’s 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA over six career outings vs. the M’s, including a 3-2 win on April 14th in which he posted 11 strikeouts. 

Gonzales (9-6, 4.34) has been hit or miss all year, looking unbelievable for stretches and downright terrible in others. Note that he’s 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Astros. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 11-20 (-8.8 units) this year in all “day” games, while Houston is 6-1 at home as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a lop-sided destruction from start to finish.

Houston Astros -1.5

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to the steady Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with the erratic Drew Pomeranz. I feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this price on the road favorite.

The pitchers: Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) has never lost in San Fran, going 5-0 with a 1.37 ERA (overall he’s 12-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Giants.) 

Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79) is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in ten career games vs. Arizona.

The pick: The Giants earned a victory in the series opener last night, but they’re still just 1-5 in this series at home this season. Greinke owns a .289 batting average vs. the Giants as well. This one has “blowout” written all over it - lay it!

10* COACH’S CORNER

The set-up: This is a battle for a spot in the 2019 Women’s World Cup semifinal. Germany advanced by knocking out Nigerian in the Round of 16, while Sweden got by Canada. Germany looks as strong as ever and has made the semifinals in every Women’s World Cup there’s ever been. Sweden has looked susceptible already at times in this tournament, especially on the attacking end. 

The pick: The Germans have so far kept a clean sheet throughout this tournament, which clearly doesn’t bode well for this “on again, off again” Swedish offensive attack (has scored just one goal over the last two games.) In fact Sweden only has five total shots on goal over the last two games. The Germans look like a team of destiny and I believe their shutout streak continues with another dominant effort on both ends of the pitch. Lay the reasonable mid-sized price and expect a blowout.

Germany

10* play

The set-up: Hamllton broke out for a 50 point win over the hapless Argos last week, but I think it has a bit of a letdown in Week 3. In all the Ti-Cats wracked up 604 total yards of offense, including three TD’s from Bralon Addison. Note that this is the first game of a back-to-back home and home series between the clubs, and as such, I’m expecting much more of a defensive affair on Friday night. It’s interesting to note that Hamilton has won four of the last five in this series and in those four victories, they’ve allowed an average of 10.5 points per game (42 in total.) Montreal won’t be rolling over either, as it comes out of its bye week after a Week 1 loss to the Eskimos. Of concern for Montreal fans is that starting QB Antonio Pipkin suffered a knee injury in the loss and he’s expect to miss 4 to 6 weeks. That means that Vernon Adams Jr. is now thrust into the spotlight for the Als. 

The pick: The pressure is on Montreal to step up defensively with its No. 1 QB sidelined with injury. There’s no way the visitors can turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying home side. So with Montreal trying to control the pace of this one from the outset, I do indeed expect this total to sneak below this sky-high number once it’s all said and done.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Montreal Allouetes UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Philadelphia comes in off a four-game sweep of the Mets and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Phillies won’t be taking anything for granted here either after the Marlins swept them in a three-game series earlier in the month. Philadelphia hands the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Elieser Hernandez.

The pitchers: Velasquez (2-4, 4.40 ERA) has made two straight appearances as a starter, including last weekend when he faced Miami, giving up just one run over five frames of work. 

Hernandez (0-2, 4.34) has gone 0-7 with a 4.54 ERA in nine starts between 2018 and 2019. 

The pick: Velasquez owns a 2.90 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Marlins and a 1.64 ERA in two starts at Miami. Hernandez has a 5.40 ERA in three games vs. Philadelphia. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the visitors.

10* Phillies

The set-up: Both teams are playing well right now, but I think that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Oakland comes in off two game sweep of St. Louis, while the Angels took two games from the Reds. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Tanner Anderson, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning.

The pitchers: Anderson (0-2, 4.20 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over three innings in a 5-3 loss to Tampa on Friday. He’s been unremarkable over three starts this year.

Canning (2-4, 3.88) faces the A’s for a third time this month, going six frames in both outings so far (gave up one run on May 29th, before allowing four runs earlier this month.) 

The pick: I think the A’s take a step back in the opener of this series and in this difficult road venue. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF WEEK ANGELS

The set-up: Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin have dominated the Marlins over the first two games of this series and I expect Stephen Strasburg to do the same tonight. The struggling home side hands the ball to Sandy Alcantara. 

The pitchers: Strasburg (8-4, 3.79 ERA) has dominated this matchup throughout his career, going 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA in 32 career starts (struck out a season high 11 in a 5-0 win over eight innings in the most recent on April 21st.) 

Alcantara (4-6, 3.51) faced the Nats in May and allowed five runs over five innings. Overall Alcantara is 0-3 with a ballooned 9.00 ERA in three career outings vs. Washington. 

The pick: Considering the lop-sided/massive talent discrepancy on the mound, I definitely feel that the sharp move in this particular contest is to lay the 1.5 runs for the near “pick em” price. 

8* Nationals Run Line

The set-up: The first two games of this series have gone well “under” the number, but I think the finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The Rockies won the first game 2-0, while San Fran won 4-2 yesterday. The visitors go with German Marquez tonight, while the home side goes with Jeff Samardzija.

The pitchers: Marquez (7-3, 4.32 ERA) is 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA in six starts vs. the Giants (despite pitching a one-hit shutout vs. them on April 14th.) 

Samardzija (4-6, 4.23) is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA in 18 games vs. the Rockies.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has already seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while San Fran has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 27 of its last 47 vs. right-handed starters. This number is a little low.

San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies OVER

9* play

The set-up: Suffice it to say, after last night’s meltdown in the ninth inning, I look for the Tribe to bounce back in this favorable spot on Wednesday afternoon. Previous to last night’s victory, the Royals had lost seven straight in this series. The home side hands the ball to Trevor Bauer, while the visitors go with Jakob Junis.

The pitchers: Junis (4-6, 5.18 ERA) has looked better of late after a horrible start to the 2019 campaign, but when he faced the Indians on April 14th he was shelled for five runs off eight hits over six innings (overall he’s 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA in seven career match ups with the Indians.) 

Bauer (5-6, 3.69) comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Tigers on Friday, but he owns a sharp 3.01 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. the Royals.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 8-18 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland is 12-5 as a home fav in the -150 to -200 range. I’m laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price and expecting a decisive rout from start to finish.

Cleveland Indians (-1.5)

10* play

The set-up: The Cards are 4-3 with two games to go on their home stand and they hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, while the A’s counter with Chris Bassitt.

The pitchers: Bassitt (4-3, 3.64 ERA) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up two runs over 5 2/3’s innings in a win over the lowly Orioles last time out. Previous to that though he’d posted a 5.88 ERA over six outings.

Flaherty (4-4, 4.24) gave up three runs over seven innings while striking out eight and walking one in an unfortunate loss to Miami last time out. 

The pick: Oakland is just 3-6 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while St. Louis is 21-10 in its last 31 following a loss. Lay the price.

10* CARDS.

The set-up: Both of these teams got out to blistering starts to the 2019 season, but each comes in having floundered of late. Both Kyle Gibson of the Twins and Blake Snell of the Rays were crushed in their last starts, but I still give the nod to Gibson in front of the home town crowd today. 

The pitchers: Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) gave up six runs and posted one out over one inning of work in a loss to the Yankees last time out. 

Gibson (7-4, 4.18) gave up six runs over 4 1/3’s innings in a 9-4 loss to Boston last time out. 

The pick: Note that Tampa was outscored 33-15 in the first six games of its road trip before busting out for 15 hits on Sunday. Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into a single decent performance at the plate for the struggling Rays. The Twins have been scuffling of late, but they still have an eight-game lead over the Tribe. Look for Gibson to get back on track in friendly confines.

10* Twins.

The set-up: Marco Gonzales has been sharp of late, but I think his hot streak comes to an end here in this difficult interleague venue. Zach Davies comes in off his worst start of 2019, but I don’t think there’s any need to push the panic button. All things considered, I think the home side is definitely worth the price of admission. 

The pitchers: Gonzales (8-6, 4.38 ERA) is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA over his last three starts. Previous to that though he lost six straight. 

Davies (7-1, 3.06) gave up I’ve runs over three innings in a loss to San Diego last time out. Note that he’s 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 12-20 as a road dog this season, while Milwaukee is 18-11 as a home favorite. I’m banking on Davies taking advantage of this favorable situation. Lay the price.

8* BREWERS. 

The set-up: No need to overthink this one, as two veteran hall of fame hurlers collide on Monday night. Suffice it to say I believe that runs are going to be at a premium with LA’s Clayton Kershaw squaring off against the Diamondbacks’ Zach Greinke.

The pitchers: Kershaw (7-1, 2.85 ERA) is sixth in the NL in ERA and fifth in WHIP. He’s 16-9 with a 2.59 ERA in 31 games vs. the Diamondbacks. 

Greinke (8-3, 2.91) is seventh in the NL in ERA and third in WHIP (0.93). He’s 7-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Dodgers.

The pick: It’s interesting to note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 34 this year vs. teams with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go under in eight of 12 this season as an underdog. This number is a little high.

LA Dodgers/Arizona D-Backs UNDER

8* play

The set-up: Boston lost two of three to the Jays over the weekend, meaning it won’t be taking anything for granted here vs. the lowly White Sox. I think the home side comes in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done. The White Sox go with Lucas Giolto, while the home side goes with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox, earning a no-decision vs. Boston on May 2nd, allowing three runs off seven hits over five frames.

Rodriguez (8-4, 4.71) leads the teams in win after giving up four runs with nine K’s in a win over the Twins on Wednesday. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four career starts vs. the White Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the White Sox are still a terrible 11-17 this year vs. clubs with winning records, while the Red Sox are 24-12 vs. teams with losing records. Giolito is starting to show signs of slowing down after his torrid start, which doesn’t bode well facing this now hungry and focused Boston team. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-2 win over ex-teammate Albert Pujols and the visiting Angels and I think they’ll build off that victory in the finale of this interleague series. So far the Angels have been shutdown in this series by the Cards and I expect that trend to continue. LA goes with Tyler Skaggs, while the home side goes with Miles Mikolas.

The pitchers: Skaggs (6-6, 4.61 ERA) has looked much better of late and he most recently gave up one run over seven innings to the Jays in his last outing. 

Mikolas (5-7, 4.48) won’t be lacking for motivation here after his terrible start to the 2019 campaign. Mikolas though comes in off his best start of the year, going six shutout innings in a 5-0 win over the Marlins on Monday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 5-9 (-3.9 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest, while St. Louis is now a remarkable 13-3 (+8.8 units) this year at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. This is a difficult interleague matchup for LA and I think St. Louis delivers the clean sweep on National TV. Lay the price and expect a blowout.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH

The set-up: The Yankees have been the best team in the AL over the first half so far this season and they’ve done it all without their best sluggers in the line-up. But Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and now Edwin Encarnacion are all back and New York is continuing to win, having already taken the first two games of this series. I believe the home side momentum continues on Saturday, with the Astros handing the ball to Wade Miley and the home side countering with Masahiro Tanaka. 

The pitchers: Miley (6-4, 3.30 ERA) comes in off a loss to the Reds, allowing three runs off four hits over four innings. 

Tanaka (5-5, 3.23) has struggled vs. the Astros in the past, but he comes in off a gem vs. Tampa Bay, going the distance and allowing two hits. 

The pick: New York has homered in 24 straight games and it comes in having won seven straight. The Astros on the other have lost six in a row. Look for the home side to improve with another win here, making this its longest win streak of the season to this point. Great value on New York.

NY Yankees

9* play

The set-up: The Orioles losing streak extended to ten games in last night’s 10-9 setback and I believe that streak of futility continues here. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner, while the home side counters with Gerson Bautista, who will start the first inning before making way for veteran Tommy Milone. 

The pitchers: Cashner (6-3, 4.48 ERA) is just 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA in 11 outings vs. the Mariners. 

Bautista (0-1, 9.00) will quickly make way for Milone (2-1, 2.23) in six career appearances vs. Baltimore. 

The pick: Baltimore is still without the services of top slugger Trey Mancini, who suffered an elbow injury on Wednesday. That doesn’t bode well facing Milone, who has given up just five runs over his last 18 innings of work, striking out 13 and walking only one in that span. I think Seattle’s approach with Bautista as an opener, followed by the red hot Milone will be too much for the struggling visiting side to overcome today. Lay the price.

Seattle Mariners

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a lower-scoring pitchers duel between these two hungry starters after Minnesota’s come from behind 8-7 win last night. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: Berrios (8-3, 2.86 ERA) comes in off a gem, striking out a season-high ten batters with one walk over eight innings in an unfortunate loss vs. the Red Sox. 

Duffy (3-3, 4.64) has looked great at times this year and very poor in others, but a date vs. the Twins is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 21 appearances vs. them. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 17 vs. the division still, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. This number is a little high.

KC Royals/Minnesota Twins UNDER

9* play

The set-up: The Twins have been floundering of late and they lost the opener of this series, but I think they’ll bounce back in fine fashion here in what I feel to be a very favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Martin Perez, while the visitors go with Jakob Junis. 

The pitchers: Perez (7-3, 4.09 ERA) comes in with immediate revenge on his mind after allowing fiver runs over six innings in an 8-6 loss to KC at Target Field on Sunday. Perez though is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two starts at Kauffman Stadium and I believe that he, like his team, is going to bounce back large in this favorable spot. 

Junis (4-6, 5.33) is 0-1 with a 4.55 ERA in six career starts vs. the Twins.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 8-1 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while KC is just 13-25 this season as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range. All signs point to a lop-sided beatdown. Lay the price.

8* DESTRUCTION Minnesota Twins.

The set-up: Trevor Bauer has been decent of late for the Indians, but Matt Boyd has taken a step back tho season after a strong 2018. For a number of different reasons, I think this number is too low. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-5, 3.35 ERA) comes in off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for five runs over four innings in a 7-3 loss to the impotent Royals.

Bauer (5-6, 3.41) comes in off his first complete-game shutout of his career over these very Tigers last Sunday. Clearly the visitors will be out to atone for that setback (note that Bauer hadn’t been credited with a win before that since April 30th.) Note as well that Bauer owns a 5.17 ERA lifetime vs. the Tigers in 18 career appearances still. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC over Tigers/Indians

The set-up: New York is rolling and it’ll be out to avenge itself after getting swept by the Astros in April. The Yanks come in having won five straight, while Houston enters on the other end of the spectrum with four straight losses, having scored just seven runs during the stretch of futility. Framber Valdez gets the nod for the visitors, while Chad Green gets the call on the mound for the home side. 

The pitchers: Valdez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his third start of the season today and while he’s been decent to this point, I think he’s going to be in over his head here in this difficult road venue.

Green (1-2, 7.54) owns a 3.53 ERA in the opener role.

The pick: I think these starters are evenly matched, but note that Houston is just 1-4 this year as an underdog, while New York is 12-2 at home this season as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. Lay the price.

10* PLAY

The set-up: Lucas Giolito has been superb for the White Sox this year, but all good things must come to an end. The Cubs’ Jon Lester has has an up and down start to 2019, but I think he’ll settle down here in front of the home town crowd. 

The pitchers: Giolito (10-1, 2.22 ERA) has been on absolute fire this year and its difficult to say anything negative about him at all. I simply feel that his early numbers are unsustainable and regression is imminent. Also note that he’s just 1-1 with a ballooned 5.84 ERA in two career starts vs. the Cubs. 

Lester (5-5, 4.08) has struggled of late, but he’ll look to bounce back against a team he’s had plenty of success against, going 9-6 with a 3.99 ERA over 17 career games vs. the White Sox. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the White Sox are just 5-8 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this year, while the Cubs are 21-9 as a home favorite. Look for The Friendly Confines to ruin Giolito’s hot run. Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: I think the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price on the road. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Gerritt Cole, while the home side counters with Tyler Mahle.

The pitchers: Cole (6-5, 3.67 ERA) leads the league in K’s with 140 through 90 2/3’s frames of work (over his past four trips to the hill he sports a sharp 2.52 ERA while striking out 40 spanning 25 innings.)

Mahle (2-7, 4.33) hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his past four starts. 

The pick: Houston welcomes back slugger Jose Altuve today, which will clearly be a boost to the visitors, who also look to salvage the finale of this three game set after dropping the first two. All signs point to a rout, lay the price with confidence.

Houston Astros

9* play

The set-up: Giancarlo Stanton is finally being activated from the IL for the Yanks in the opener of this three-game series and I believe the slugger will pay immediate dividends for the Yanks. Edwin Encarnacion was 0 for 4 for New York yesterday, but with that awkward debut out of the way, he should settle down here as well. The Evil Empire is getting healthier and I expect that momentum to translate into a solid victory tonight. The home side hands the ball to the surging JA Happ, while the visitors counter with Ryne Stanek. 

The pitchers: Stanek (0-1, 2.45 ERA) is being forced into a starters roll out of necessity, a position in which he’s been pretty pedestrian in (note that he has a 4.60 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Yanks.) 

Happ (6-3, 4.66) is starting on four days rest here as he tries to post a sixth straight win, going 5-0 with a 4.38 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but despite their early great play the Rays are still a money-burning 12-12 (-2.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. Conversely note that New York is 17-9 (+8.3 units) in the same position. Lay the price with confidence. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: The Braves are surging right now and I believe that trend carries over for at least one more game. Atlanta is 6-1 during its current home stand. Overall the Braves have won nine of their last ten, including a 15-1 blowout vs. the Phillies on Sunday. New York’s moving in the opposite direction, most recently dropping three of four to the Cards over the weekend, going 5-5 in its last ten. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with rookie Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Wheeler (5-4, 4.87 ERA) was blasted for nine runs off ten hits over 4 2/3’s innings in a loss to the Yankees in his last start. 

Soroka (7-1, 1.92) enters off his worst start of the year, giving up five runs over five innings to the Pirates, but outings like that have truly been few and far between this season and note that he’s already 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 12 1/3’s innings vs. the Mets this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-9 (-7.6 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Atlanta is 14-6 (+4 units) as a favorite of -150 or higher. Lay the price with confidence. 

Atlanta Braves (vs. NY Mets)

10* play

The set-up: This is the final group match for each side, and each is looking to advance to the round of 16. A win or even a draw would likely do it for either. Spain comes in off a tough 1-0 loss to German, while China enters off a victory over South Africa by 1-0.

The pick: Germany was a difficult match-up for Spain, but it has no excuses here. The Spaniards are filled with talent (keep your eye on Jennifer Hermoso) and I think it’ll be too much for China to contend with. China managed the 1-0 victory against lowly South Africa, but goals have been at a premium for the Chinese this tournament, which doesn’t bode well facing the stingy Spaniards. All things considered, a great price.

Spain (vs. China)

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: Texas battled for a late win last night, but I like the home side to bounce back on Sunday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Arial Jurado, while the home side counters with Sonny Gray. In fact the Reds will be desperate to avoid the three-game sweep and all signs point to a letdown here from Texas in my opinion. 

The pitchers: Jurado (4-2, 3.02 ERA) allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a 9-5 win over Boston in his last start. 

Gray (2-5, 3.65) has faced Texas 14 times in his career and gone 8-3 with a 2.72 ERA. 

The pick: Jurado has been decent of late, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time today. Note as well that Texas is still only 10-20 (-5.6 units) this season as a road underdog, while Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine home games following a two games or more losing streak to an interleague opponent. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Texas Rangers)

9* play

The set-up: Toronto hasn’t put up much of a fight in this series. The Jays are struggling at the plate and I think that trend continues here in another difficult matchup on the mound for them. The visitors hand the ball to Trent Thornton, while the home side goes with Brad Peacock.

The pitchers: Thornton (1-5, 4.78 ERA) suffered a loss in Baltimore last time out, allowing three runs over five innings. 

Peacock (6-3, 3.42) enters on top form, going 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 45 K’s vs. 12 walks over his last seven starts spanning 40 1/3’s frames of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten road games following a two games or longer losing streak, while Houston has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 already this season as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high.

Toronto Blue Jays/Houston Astros UNDER

9* play

The set-up: I think the talent discrepancy on the mound justifies in laying this larger price. Trevor Bauer comes in on top form for the Tribe and I think he carries that momentum over here. The home side goes with Spencer Turnbull. Cleveland has won the first two games of this series and I expect the sweep here vs. the anemic Tigers. 

The pitchers: Bauer (4-6, 3.71 ERA) won all four starts vs. the Tigers last year while posting a tiny 1.23 ERA and 40 K’s in 29 1/3’s innings of work. 

Turnbull (3-5, 2.78) held KC scoreless over six on Tuesday, but he still received a no-decision after his bullpen blew his performance. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is 92-58 in all “day” games the L2 years, while Detroit is just 8-13 as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range this season. I’m banking on Bauer dominating the struggling Tigers’ line-up. Lay the price.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Detroit Tigers)

9* play

The set-up: BC acquired the biggest free agent on the market in the offseason in QB Mike Reilly, who returns to his former team. Reilly signed a large four year contract and the Grey Cup Champion and ex MVP will be expected to step up quickly and pay immediate dividends. The Blue Bombers have fared well vs. the Lions ATS over the last few seasons, but QB Matt Nichols is coming off a poor 2018 in which he had just one three-hundred yard game. Nichols will be leaning heavily upon the CFL’s leading rusher Andrew Harris. 

The pick: These teams are no strangers to each other obviously, but I think that Reilly is the difference maker on opening night. The Leo’s hit the road for three straight after this and I think they put the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

BC Lions (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: Yu Darvish returns to face the Dodgers. Darvish has made just 22 starts with the Cubs in a year and a half and he has just three victories and a ballooned 4.96 ERA. I think Walker Buehler and the hard-hitting home side take advantage.

The pitchers: Darvish (2-3, 4.98 ERA) has posted eight straight no-decisions. 

Buehler (7-1, 3.35 ERA) is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA over his last eight starts, giving up a single run over each of his last two starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 3-13 (-9.4 units) this year as a road underdog, while LA is 14-3 (+7.7 units) this season as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This one has blowout written all over it.

LA Dodgers (vs. Chicago Cubs)

8* play

The set-up: After a 2-4 start, the New York Liberty come in on top form having won two straight. Overall the Liberty have averaged 79.7 PPG, while allowing 82. Tina Charles leads the nightly charge with 21.3 points and 9.2 boards per game. Las Vegas has been sliding of late and has fallen back under .500. On the year the Aces average 82.2 PPG and concede 78.6. Kayla McBride leads Las Vegas with 17.2 points and five boards per game. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I believe those trends continue here. Outright win? Unlikely. But I think this will be much more competitive that what this spread would suggest.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Aces are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss. New York just beat the Aces at home as a ten point dog (allowed just 35.4 percent shooting in that one.) No ATS revenge today for the home side, grab as many points as you can.

10* GAME OF WEEK LIBERTY

The set-up: Milwaukee has been one of the hardest hitting teams this year and in this clear mismatch on the mound, I expect the visitors to take full advantage (note that Milwaukee ranks first in the NL in home runs, while San Francisco ranks next to last in almost every offensive category.) The Brewers go with Zach Davies, while the home side goes with the volatile Drew Pomeranz. 

The pitchers: Davies (7-0, 2.41 ERA) most recently allowed three runs over five innings in a sub-par outing vs. the Pirates last time out, but those types of performances have truly been few and far between. 

Pomeranz (1-6, 7.16) comes in off his best outing of the year vs. the Dodgers, going five scoreless. He received a no-decision for his effort, but performances like that have been few and far between for the struggling southpaw the last two years. 

The pick: Davies owns a 1.64 ERA in two starts vs. the Giants, while Pomeranz has an 8.00 ERA in two career outings vs. the Brewers. Lay the price.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. San Francisco Giants)

8* play

The set-up: After a hot 13-2 start, Seattle has been one of the worst teams in the entire league ever since. Marco Gonzales (6-6, 4.77 ERA) opened the season 5-0 with a 2.80 ERA for the M’s, before losing his next six decisions. Gonzalez finally got off the schneid with a decent effort vs. the Angels last time out, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.57) gets the nod for the home side and he’s given up three runs or less in eight of his nine outings this year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 4-17 in its last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records and a poor 3-13 in its last 16 road games vs. right-handed starters, while the A’s are a sharp 9-3 in their last 12 during Game 1 of a series. I’m banking on Bassitt getting the better of the “on again, off again” Gonzales and for the A’s to take full advantage. Lay the price.

*10*

The set-up: I have to admit, I was shocked that Toronto took both Game’s 3 and 4 in Golden State. Toronto had a big opportunity to end this series, but in failing to do so in Game 5, the Warriors now have renewed hope and they have to be feeling pretty confident with Game 6 at home, despite dropping the previous two and not having KD in the line-up. The Raptors are in unchartered territory right now and I think the veteran defending champs extend this series one more game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 9-13 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 2-6 ATS this season in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Golden State is a perfect 3-0 ATS the L2 years when facing elimination and 12-8 ATS in its last 20 following a win by six points or less. For all the reasons listed above, play: Golden State Warriors (vs. Toronto Raptors) Moneyline

10* play

The set-up: It’s Game 7! Two hopeful teams collide in Boston tonight, ready to lift the Stanley Cup! The Blues went 30-23 on the road this year, averaging 2.81 goals and allowing 2.40. St. Louis’ goaltender Jordan Binnington is 15-10 with a 2.52 GAA in the playoffs. Boston is 36-17 at home, averaging 3.36 goals and allowing 2.40. Tuukka Rask is 15-8 with a 1.93 GAA in the playoffs this year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of 24 this year following a loss by two goals or more, while Boston has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 20 when playing with two days rest. This number is high.

STL Blues/Boston Bruins UNDER

10* play

The set-up: The Marlins go with right-hander Jordan Yamamoto who makes his MLB debut tonight, while the visitors go with the struggling Miles Mikolas. Miami will be desperate to break out of its funk here after losing six straight and scoring just ten runs in that span. 

The pitchers: Yamamoto was 3-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts in Double A.

Mikolas (4-6, 4.54) has had plenty of success vs. the Fish in the past, but that was then and this is now. Mikolas is just 1-3 with a 7.52 ERA on the road this year and he’s allowed 13 homers in 13 starts after allowing just 16 in total last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after allowing three runs of press in two straight games, while Miami has seen the total go over in six of eight this season in trying to revenge two straight home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low.

STL Cards/Miami Marlins OVER

10* play

The set-up: These are the top two teams in Group B. Both teams enter with three points after winning its respective openers, with Germany besting China 1-0, and Spain coming from behind to knock off South Africa (note though that two goals came via the penalty shot.) China was no pushover, as evidenced by the 1-0 score. Note that Germany has averaged a whopping 3.2 goals over its last 13 games. To be honest though, the Germans had plenty of chances vs. China, but perhaps jitters in the first game sent many balls wide or over the bar, which would have normally found the back of the net. Spain benefited from a weak South African defense, but it’s going to now have its hands full with one of the best in the defensive units in the World.

The pick: And I do think the Germans superior defense will wear Spain down and I look for the favorite to pull away late. Lay the price.

Germany (vs. Spain)

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. I think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight makes the visitors well worth the price of admission. The Friars hand the ball to Chris Paddack, while the home side counters with Tyler Beede.

The pitchers: Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) beat San Francisco 3-1 in his major league debut. Note that the Padres have gone 5-2 so far in this season series. 

Beede (0-2, 8.15) faced San Diego in his second major league start last year and he was shelled for five runs off six hits over three innings in a 10-1 loss. 

The pick: Note that San Diego is 14-7 (+7.8 units) this year after scoring two runs or less, while San Francisco is just 2-6 this season as a home dog of +125 or higher. I like Paddack to settle down here and I expect him to easily out duel his volatile counterpart.

San Diego Padres (vs. San Francisco Giants)

8* play

The set-up: The sub-way series was postponed a day due to inclement weather. Now the Mets and Yanks will play a double-header, with Zack Wheeler and Masahiro Tanaka getting the call in Game 1 and then Jason Vargas and James Paxton going in the second. This is a play on the “over” in Game 2. The Mets come into the day having won 12 of their last 20. The Yanks won’t be lacking for motivation after going 2-5 in their last seven. 

The pitchers: Vargas (2-3, 3.57 ERA) has been exceptional of late, but regression seems imminent in my opinion. Note as well that he’s a terrible 0-7 with a 6.84 ERA in 11 appearances vs. the Yankees. 

Paxton (3-2, 2.11) is making his third start since coming off the IL after missing three weeks with a knee injury. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in three of four interleague games already, while the Yanks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All signs point to a slugfest in the night game.

NY Yankees/NY Mets OVER

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The hard-hitting visiting side sends perhaps the World’s best pitcher right now to the mound for this one, as the Dodgers’ Hyun Jin Ryu gets ready to square off against rookie right-hander Griffin Canning.

The pitchers: Ryu (9-1, 1.35 ERA) has done well in this interleague matchup throughout his career going by going 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in three career starts vs. them. Note that since his lone loss Ryu has gone 7-0 with a 0.75 ERA. 

Canning (2-2, 3.52) takes the mound for a team which has lost six of its past ten. Canning comes off a decent outing, giving up our runs over six innings vs. the A’s, striking out eight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are already 12-6 (+3.5 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while the Angels are just 8-15 this season as an underdog. Lay the price with confidence.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The setup: Whether KD plays or not tonight, I like the Warriors to postpone this series at least one more game after tonight. The Warriors have been decimated by injury during the playoffs and it finally caught up to them in the Finals. Despite that though, with Stephen Curry an Klay Thompson both given a green light for the defending champs, then GS has much more than just a puncher chance in this one. So far Toronto has been tight defensively, but the team is in unchartered territory here. I think the Raptors will struggle to put away the Warriors in this crucial spot. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up great for the underdog tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in revenging two straight straight up losses to an opponent (including 2-0 ATS this year), while Toronto is only 2-3 ATS this season after two or more straight road wins by ten points or more. Grab as many points as you can.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: There’s no question that this has been a difficult series to predict. Boston feels it got robbed in Game 5, so clearly the visitors won’t be lacking for motivation here as they try to stave off elimination and push the Stanley Cup Final to a decisive Game 7. Boston doesn’t lack the talent or the experience in this position. St. Louis has plenty of talent clearly, but it’s in unchartered territory and I think that matters here. Honestly, it wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either team to win, but I think that Boston’s experience wins the day in the end. 

The pick: Note as well that the Bruins are already 4-0 (+4.2 units) this year when trailing in a playoff series, while the Blues are just 3-4 (-2.4 units) when leading in a playoff series. I think the writing is on the wall and an epic Game 7 is in the cards.

Boston Bruins

10* play

The set-up: The Red Sox look to salvage the final game of this four game series and even it up. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Blake Snell, while the home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Snell (3-5, 3.68 ERA) was untouchable last year for the most part, but this season it’s been quite the opposite. Snell enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings of work.

Rodriguez (6-3, 4.88) has had difficulty with TB in the past, but he enters on top form, having gone 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA over his last ten starts, including allowing only two runs over seven frames in a win over the Royals on Tuesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TB is now just 10-11 (-3.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records, while Boston is 73-44 (+8.8 units) the last two years in all “day” games. I’m laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs.

10* RL BEST IN SHOW

The set-up: Washington will be eager to return to form here. It came to San Diego on a 9-2 run, but the Padres have rallied in the late innings over the first two games of this series, including a 5-4 walk off win last night. Enough is enough! With their “ace” Max Scherzer going tonight, I think the visitors bounce back in Game 3. The home side counters with Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) has a 3-2, 2.37 ERA record over ten starts vs. the Padres. 

Lauer (5-4, 4.18) has been sharp of late and he’s had decent success vs. the Nationals throughout his career, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 4-1 (+3 units) this season after having lost six or seven of its last eight, while San Diego is still just 12-29 (-12 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I expect Scherzer and the focused Nationals to find a way to get the job done here. 

Washington Nationals

10* play

The set-up: This has been a very entertaining series. Golden State has its hands full in this series, as the Raptors are healthy and fearless and arguably have the best player in the World in Kawhi Leonard on their team. Klay Thompson didn’t play for the Warriors in Game 3, but he’ll be back in the line-up tonight and that definitely changes things for Stephen Curry and the defending champs. Kevin Durant is not expected to play for Golden State, but the Warriors rolled over the Blazers in four games with this exact line-up. I think this one definitely sets up as more of a shootout than a defensive “chess match.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten road playoff games following a road playoff win, while Golden State has seen the total soar over in eight of its last 12 home playoff games following a home playoff loss. This number is low, play the over.

GSW/Raps OVER

10* play

The set-up: The month long competition finally gets underway for the Women. South Korea faces off against Host France, which is one of the favorites to win the entire thing. Both teams are in Group A and are joined by Norway and Nigeria. The French are going to want to get out to a resounding start in front of the home town crowd, while the visitors know they’ll have to match pace. I think overall from a “situational” stand point that this one definitely sets up great as more of a higher-scoring “shootout,” than a defensive “chess match.” 

The pick: France is loaded with talent, with seven players apart of the Champions League winner Lyon (keep your eyes on Eugenie Le Sommer, who has 223 goals in 249 games for Lyon.) I think the underdog Koreans will have their chance to score vs. this aggressive French team. This number is low.

France/Korea OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Cardinals sit 2.5 games back of the Cubs to open this series. These teams met a week ago in St. Louis and the Cardinals managed to sweep all three games. It’s “payback” time now that the Cubs are at Wrigley though. The home side goes with Cole Hamels, who took a hard-luck loss vs. St. Louis last week by allowing one unearned run and two hits over seven innings, while the visitors counter with Miles Mikolas.

The pitchers: Mikolas (4-5, 4.41) has done well against the Cubs throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in seven career appearances. 

Hamels (4-3, 3.62) is 4-6 with a sharp 2.48 ERA in 15 career games vs. St. Louis. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a three-game sweep vs. a division opponent, while St. Louis is just 10-15 (-5.3 units) on the road this season. I like Chicago to avenge last week’s sweep in St. Louis by taking Game 1 easily. Lay the price.

10* CUBS

The set-up: This has been a difficult series to get a grasp on. With three games remaining, both teams are going to be laying everything on the line. St. Louis has allowed 2.42 goals per game on the road, while Boston has allowed just 2.40 GPG at home. I said before this series started that I thought that the team that would win this series would whichever sides’ goaltender “stepped up.” These goalies (Jordan Binnington for the Blues and Tuukka Rask for the Bruins) are obviously very evenly matched and I think they’re going to be the focal point in this contest as well. Neither team is going to give an inch in Game 5, so in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I definitely feel that the value lies with laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five when tied in a playoff series, while Boston is just 9-10 (-4.6 units) this season after a loss by two goals or more in its previous outing.

8* Blues PL

The set-up: Enough is enough! After starting 10-31, the Marlins are now 13-5 after taking the first two games of this series by a combined score of 24-3 (includes 16-0 win on Tuesday.) I think Caleb Smith and the visiting side finally come back down to Earth on Thursday afternoon though and I look for the hungry Freddy Peralta to take advantage. 

The pitchers: Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA) has been in a “free fall” over the last month, going 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA over his past four starts, after starting 13-5 with a 1.99 ERA. 

Peralta (2-2, 5.68) for whatever reason has “feasted” in the month of June, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings, allowing only three hits to go along with a sharp 17-1 strikeout to walk ratio (is 6-6 with a 4.72 ERA in all other months combined.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Miami is just 4-11 (-4.9 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Milwaukee is 71-55 (+20.3 units) the L2 years after having lost two of its last three games. I think the revenge minded and thoroughly humbled home side lays everything on the line this afternoon and finds a way to salvage the finale. Lay the price.

10* Milwaukee

The set-up: Detroit managed to pull of the major upset in Game 1 of this three game series last night, but I think an immediate return to mediocrity is in store on Wednesday. The revenge-minded visiting side hands the ball to Charlie Morton, while the home side counters with Spencer Turnbull. 

The pitchers: Morton (6-0, 2.54 ERA) has won three of his past four starts for his team. Most recently he held the hard-hitting Twins to two runs over seven innings while also striking out six.

Turnbull (3-4, 2.84) comes in off a win over the Braves on Friday, giving up two runs over six innings.

The pick: Note that Tampa is still 18-8 on the road this year and 21-9 in all “night” games. And note the Detroit is still only 3-11 as a home underdog and just 9-17 at home overall. Previous to yesterday’s win the Tigers had lost ten straight at home. Look for Tampa to get back on track after yesterday’s setback.

TB Rays

10* play

BONUS:

The set-up: Momentum. In sports it can be a very real, almost tangible thing. Even without Kevin Durant and Kevin Mooney, I think the Warriors are going to ride the wave of emotion at home and come out “guns a blazing” in the first half of Game 3. Toronto dominated in Game 1 and it appeared as if it would roll to another victory in Game 2, but then the second half started. Golden State made some big adjustments and it would go on to easily destroy the Raptors in the second half. And now I think that the defending champs carry that momentum over at home (at least in the first half!) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight playoff games as an underdog in the five to 10.5 points range, while Golden State is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 playoff games as a favorite in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price and expect the home side to roll to a SU victory in the first half.

Golden State Warriors (1st Half Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Dodgers come in off a convincing win last night and they’re the hottest team in all of MLB. The Diamondbacks are moving in the opposite direction for weeks now after a shot start to the 2019 MLB campaign. LA also hands the ball to arguably the hottest pitcher on the planet in Hyun-Jin Ryu, while the home side counters with the relatively unknown Taylor Clarke. 

The pitchers: Ryu (8-1, 1.48 ERA) went 5-0 in six starts in May, allowing just three runs over 45 2/3’s innings of work to go along with an almost non-existent 0.59 ERA. He’s 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 14 career outings vs. the D-Backs. 

Clarke (1-1, 4.67) makes his fourth career start, most recently getting shelled for five runs over two innings in a loss to the Rockies on Thursday.

The pick: The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on the Dodgers on the run line.

LA Dodgers (-1.5)

8* play