Davies (Diamondbacks probable pitcher) is slowly getting back up to speed after time on the injury list and rehabbing in the minors.  He has gradually increased his workload to get back to where he was last season.  He now has two starts under his belt since he was shut down at the end of April.  His numbers are all out of whack but if he can get 4 or 5 decent innings in his bullpen can take it from there.  In their last 10 Arizona’s relievers have a 2.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP

Corbin doesn’t have that kind of support.  He has been working steady but his numbers are atrocious with an ERA that was well above 6 until recently but still is near 5 and a WHIP that spent part of April near 2 and now is 1.48.  His bullpen has an ERA of .655 and a WHIP of 1.81 in their last 10 games, so the pressure is on him to last as long as he is able.

The D-backs have an OPS that is 9th best in the majors that must be eagerly awaiting this match up. 

The Nationals are 11-18 vs. clubs with a winning record while the D-backs are 21-13 vs. clubs with a losing record.  The Nationals also have poor records at home (12-19) and at night (12-20) while the D-backs have winning records in both those situations.  This is a clear choice to pick the Arizona Diamondbacks in Washington Wednesday night.

Probable pitchers Gilbert (Mariners) and Musgrove (Padres) have had solid results lately.  Musgrove, an NL all star last season, is coming back from a toe injury and is rounding back into form.  He has surrendered 0 and 1 earned runs in his last two starts.  Gilbert has a WHIP of .98 and his ERA has been dropping in May.  His last start against the hard hitting Yankees wasn’t great but the two before that were solid.  Both pitchers should have success against hitters that are struggling.  The Padres have hit .213 against RHP in their last 10 while the Mariners have only hit .197.

In terms of defense both teams have kept opponents’ OPS below .700. The Padres' bullpen has been solid, the Mariners', less so but Gilbert should last long enough to keep it from being an issue.

The Padres have been under 4 of their last 5 games, and Mariners have been under for 2 of their last 4.  Both teams are near the bottom ¼ of the majors in avg and OPS.  All of this should go together nicely to keep the total under on Tuesday night.

Probable pitcher Gibson (Orioles) has been hot lately.  Consecutive wins against Toronto, the Yankees, and Cleveland with an average of 1.33 earned runs against in each start were impressive.  Peralta for the Brewers is coming off two losses, one where he only lasted 2.1 innings against the Giants. In May his ERA was 5.61 and his WHIP ballooned to 1.68.  Neither bullpen has been outstanding over the last 10 but Baltimore’s is coming off a day of rest.  Both bullpens were effective before that last 10.

The Brewers are 29th (second to last) in the majors in both avg and OPS so their bats aren’t going to scare anyone.  And they have a .193 avg against righthanders. 

The Orioles are 20-10 on the road compared to a pedestrian 16-10 at home for the Brewers.  Their night records are 25-10 and 17-16 respectively.  The other interesting stat is that the Orioles are 13-2 when the total is set from 8-8.5.  It all adds up to a solid play for the Orioles as slight underdogs (+107 as of this writing) for Tuesday night. 

Stats and records from previous rounds and the regular season don’t matter so much now.  They both played in a separate conference for the playoffs and the regular season.  Except for their split in regular season games this past season,  we have little to no experience of these teams together.  Game 1 gave us more of what we have seen in one sense as their last 11 games against each other over the past 4 seasons had the home team with a 10-1 record.  That includes the Panthers with a 0-6 record over their last 6 in Vegas, which gives us one data point.

Panthers’ powerplay was at 0% Saturday night, while Vegas was at 28%.  Given the Panthers’ interest in mixing it up Saturday, this gives us another data point in favor of the Knights.  Over the last 10 games the Panthers’ have averaged only 2.6 goals/game, even as they were successful.  The Knights have averaged 3.6 goals/game.  Another check mark for the Knights.  Over their last 8 games head to head the favorite is 7-1.  Monday night Vegas is the favorite.  All the above relevant data points, point to Vegas.  Take the Knights on the Money Line.

The total in Game One went as expected, with Bobrovsky allowing four goals against for just the first time in eleven games.  I doubt that his extended rest will prove beneficial in this series.  Let's not forget that in spite of his recent play, Bobrovsky had a pair of five goals-against games early in the Boston series.  Adin Hill continued to impress with a .943 save % on 35 shots.  On offense, Eichel had a pair of assists in Game one.  Stone was held scoreless but had seven shots on net.  Tkachuk took himself out of the game for the final five minutes, and was also held pointless.  I am still convinced that offenses, especially Vegas' will rule the day in this series.  That same 5 1/2 total is readily available.  We have a small sample size, but recent games with the Knights as the home side have all gone over.  Take the Over again in Game two.

The Rangers are a hot ball team at the moment, 8-2 L10, hitting at the top of the league, while allowing 3 or less runs in 8 of 10 games.  They've had 4 recent games with 10 or more runs scored.  Meanwhile the Cardinals were just swept by the Pirates.  Their offense has tanked; they've scored 3 or less runs in 9 of their last 10 games. They have struggled on the road and against left-handed pitching.  Wainwright has 5 starts under his belt since returning from injury.  It has not been smooth sailing.  His last start was an improvement, but he was lucky to allow just 3 runs while giving up 9 hits and a pair of walks. Opposing batters are hitting well over .300 against him in May. His mound opponent is lefty Martin Perez.  After a sensational April he has had VERY mixed results in May, including 2 solid starts along with 3 poor ones. The Rangers have been able to score more than Perez has given up when he has stumbled lately.  Wainwright has been one of the best of his generation of pitchers, but at 41, one wonders how many good starts he has in the tank.  I'll take the Rangers potent offense and solid bullpen to win the day on Monday.

RH Soroka started for the first time in three years, lasting 6 innings and allowing four runs.  That game was against the A's.  Today he will face  RH Gallen and the D-backs.  Gallen wasn't as overpowering in May (3.34 ERA) as he was in April, but he has been absolutely overpowering at home, posting an 0.64 ERA while going 6-0 in six starts.  Arizona is 6-1, hitting well lately and are 7th in OPS vs right-handers this season.  The Braves are in a bit of a slump at 3-5.  They managed just 8 runs total in the Oakland series, and have seen 4 straight Unders.  Both bullpens are effective at the moment.  As promising as Soroka once was, the jury is still out on his early effectiveness.  The Jury is in on Gallen. Gallen is a very fine starter, especially at home.  Take Arizona to win game three of the series today.

The Rangers are hard to beat at home, and have taken two straight from the Mariners.  Make it three on Sunday, although it might not be as easy a win as Saturday's thumping.  Mariners' wunderkind rookie Miller off to a very impressive career start, spiraled back down to earth courtesy of the Yankees, who tore him up with a pair of homers and eight runs over four plus innings.  We will see how the Kid responds against an even better-hitting team.  The Rangers are the top offense lately, hitting .304/.855 OPS over the last 15 games.  Texas will run out May's AL Pitcher of the Month in  right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.  He was 4-0 for the month with an 0.96 ERA and 31 strikeouts.  Very good lenth in his starts, including a complete game in his second last appearance.

The Mariners have won just one of four games, allowing a pair of tens and a sixteen run game, highly irregular for a team that prides itself on pitching.  Seattle is 27th in offense over the last week, and 26th against right-handers this season. Irregardless of how Miller pitches, I am on Eovaldi and the Rangers' offense on Sunday.  Take Texas to win.

It’s been quite a ride through the playoffs for us and the teams.  Now is when the Panthers take the truth serum of the Knights.  Are they for real?  Is Bobrovsky for real?  Can Tkachuk keep doing what he’s been doing?  Can the Panther’s patchwork defense keep it together?  Is Paul Maurice a genius?

Looking at Bobrovsky’s save % we think it’s otherworldly.  Hill’s is comparable and in the regular season it is superior to Bobrovsky’s.  Carolina’s approach is volume of shots from wherever (shot heat maps show the vast majority from the outside), so they made it easy for Bobrovsky to look impressive.  Vegas gets to the dirty areas and they will expose Bobrovsky like Carolina never did.

Tkachuk’s playoff history was mediocre before this year.  What’s different about this year?  He’s playing against the Eastern Conference, not the Western Conference.  He has had his way with Carolina, Toronto and surprisingly, Boston with little or no pushback.   Vegas is a different story and he will get push back.

The depth Vegas has upfront will expose the Panthers’ defence and show us that Forsling and Gudas aren’t what we might have thought they were and Marc Staal is not a top four defenceman.  Vegas’ third line with Karlsson, Smith and Marchesault will feast on Staal and the Panthers’ third pairing when they get a chance.  Vegas’ fourth line will punish the Panthers’ in their own end. 

With respect to Paul Maurice we’ll find out when his team comes up against a powerful Vegas team that has quietly worked through the Western Conference under the skilled guidance of Bruce Cassidy who’s former team, the Bruins, sputtered in the playoffs without him.  Take Vegas on the Money Line.

We have seen a stack of unders with the Panthers in the postseason, not in small part due to Bobrovsky's remarkable play.  It is now ten days since he played, so at what point does rest become rust?  He gave up three goals in his last start; I'm wagering that he will do at least the same tonight.  The Panthers are 0-5 in Vegas and those games have gone over to the tune of 4-1.  The Knights rolled out six goals against a very good defensive team in their last game.  The return of Mark Stone and Eichel's first foray into the playoffs have made the Golden Knights an offensive force to be reckoned with.  The Golden Knights have had five days rest and are mostly healthy, a rarity in the past two years. Let's not forget that the Panthers were a top six team in offense this season. Look for goal tending on a less heroic scale and a higher final score.  Take Vegas and the Panthers to go over the total.

The Twins and Guardians didn't score many runs on Friday, and with Allen and Gray on the mound we could see a similar result for Saturday.  The Under is 7-3 in Guardians games, and consistent (5-0-1) in Allen's starts.  Cleveland's rookie lefty is off to a fine season, and off a superlative 7 inning 10 K shutout in his last start.  The Twins' right-hander Gray hasn't been quite as good in May as April, but man, has he pitched well at home (3-0, 1.27 ERA) this year. The teams are supported by two of the most effective bullpens in the league.
Cleveland's offense has been a disappointment all season.  They struggle particularly vs right-handers.  The Twins, at 25th in OPS, have their issues with lefties.  Buxton, Correa and Gallo are all listed as questionable for Saturday, a possible big hit to Minnesota's offense.  Look for another low-scoring game and take the Under on Saturday.

The 6-4 Marlins, seventh in OPS over the last two weeks, are hitting pretty well for a change.  The A's are in their usual spot; dead last with a .173 batting average and a .480 OPS in the last two weeks.  Miami is a good home team and will look to take the second game of the series against the Hapless A's.  Medina, the A's rookie (0-4, 6.83 ERA) hasn't pitched as poorly as his ERA would suggest,  if it weren't for the long ball.  He allowed three in his last start, and eight over 22 innings in May.  He will square off against another rookie, the highly-touted Eury Perez, who has started the season very well.  He shut out the Angels over five innings last time out.  Opposing batters are hitting just .188 against him over his four starts.  The Marlins bullpen has been uneven at times but very effective lately.  The A's pen is the worst in the league.  Take the favored Marlins on the run line today at -1 1/2.  10*!

While the Cubs took 2 of 3 from the Rays, it wasn't the offense leading the way; Chicago scored just 6 runs in the series.  They will need more runs than that with Taillon on the mound.  It has been a remarkably poor month for the right-hander, with zero wins and an ERA over 10.00 in May.  The opposition is hitting a very robust .351 for the month.  His opponent has been the reverse.  Padres' righty Wacha took a few games to get going, but he has been as good as anyone in the MLB in May, giving up just 3 runs in 32 innings pitched.  Add in a very solid bullpen, and it is no wonder the Padres are favored.  Their hitting?  Still surprisingly poor.  They have had the odd high scoring outing lately, but about the best you can say is that they are at least better than the Cubs.   They should get their licks in against Taillon and the Cubs' bullpen.  Chicago isn't very good as a road team this year.  Take San Diego to win this one going away.

After years in the wilderness, Chase Anderson is pitching like it is 2017 when he went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA.  It is a small sample size so it might be a gamble to wager on continued success, but his mound opponent is hardly tearing up the ball diamond. The Royals' Lyles has had an extremely disappointing season, giving up a run an inning and with an ERA of over eleven in his last three starts.  The 4-6 Rockies are a poor road team, and were just swept by Arizona, however the 3-7 Royals continue to be shockingly poor home team.  KC is just 13-30 this year vs right-handed pitching.  Neither offense has impressed but the Rockies are at least hitting for average lately.  There is little to choose from between the bullpens.  I am wagering on the underdog Rockies today, with Anderson continuing in his winning ways for at lest one more game.

Both teams can play defense but both can also produce plenty of points. Games at Denver average nearly 228 points. When the Heat played here during the season, the teams combined for 117 in the first half and 243 for the game. That O/U line was 224. Over is 7-3 when Miami played with 2 day's rest and the over is also 6-1 when Denver played with 3 or more day's rest. We'll also point out that 11 of 17 games have topped the total, when the Heat were coming off a double-digit victory. All of the above, go with the over to start June right.

The Guardians’ Bibee and the Twins’ Lopez are two young pitchers with very solid results lately.  Since being called up April 26th star prospect Bibee has been meeting the high expectations the Guardians have had for him.  With a sparkling 2.88 ERA and an improving 1.08 WHIP he should have a more impressive win/loss record but he just can’t seem to get any run support from the light hitting Guardians.  In his last outing against the Cards he only allowed 2 hits but was only supported with one run and so he took the loss.  Lopez has racked up 81 SO and if you take out the one game against the powerful Dodgers his improving ERA in May would be 2.77.  Against the Guardians’ 29th best OPS in the majors, Lopez should lock things down well.  The Twins are also in the bottom third of the majors for average and OPS.

Both bullpens have been excellent lately.  In their last 10 Cleveland’s relievers have a 1.31 ERA and in their last 5 it is a miniscule .47.  The Twins bullpen has excelled lately too with a 2.23 ERA in their last 10.

All of the above, combined with the Guardians’ over/under in their last 10 being 2-8 and the Twins’ over/under being 3-7 in their last 10 (one game was over by .5), point clearly to a low scoring affair.  Go with the under to start June right.

The Guardians’ hot young pitcher Bibee has had a great start to his first year.  With a little run support in his last outing against the Cards, the 2 hits he allowed over 6 innings should have provided him a result but all he got was one run and no decision. Two games before that he only allowed 2 hits over 7.2 innings but still ended up with no decision as he was only supported with 1 run.   

The Guardians started off the season near the bottom of the majors in hitting but lately they have turned it around.  Since Bibee last pitched they have been averaging 6.5 runs and 12 hits per game.  This alone should put him over the top but combine it with a bullpen that has had a 1.31 ERA over the last 10 and a miniscule .47 over the last 5 and you have a recipe for success for the Guardians and Bibee.

Pitcher Lopez and the Twins might have something to say about this but their hitting has been in the bottom third of the majors for most of the season.  Lopez started out the season strong but has had mixed results as of late with 3 of his last 7 starts averaging more than one earned run against/inning.  Pick the underdog Guardians for a close win on the Money Line.

As predicted, the Brewers picked on one of the Jays' struggling starters yesterday.  Today, I expect pay-back from Toronto.  Peralta starts for Milwaukee, and his May results were very mixed.  Two of his last three starts were outright poor, including a 2+ inning 10 run debacle last time out.  He has struggled on the road this season as well.   The Brewers aren't getting the same level of relief pitching we have grown accustomed to, with an ERA approaching 5.00 in the last ten games.   Gausman has been super sharp in 9 of 11 starts.  I am banking on another fine one today.  The Jays' offense has been something of a disappointment this season, but their big bats look to be waking up, led by Bichette and Springer at the moment.  They are hitting right-handers at a muscular .327 pace in their last 10 games. The Brew Crew are as usual struggling to score runs.  Look for the Jays to take it to Milwaukee, especially early. 

A pair of strong young right handers face off in Houston tonight.  The Astros' Brown has been sharp lately, allowing just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last two appearances.  Varland has also been effective for the Twins, giving up 3 or less runs in his last three starts.  The two teams are similar on paper; first and second in runs-allowed this season, and both with middling offenses.  Houston, now 7-3, definitely has the hotter hand lately.  The Twins are sub-.500 on the road, have struggled in and against Houston, and are having difficulty producing runs lately, scoring three or less in six of nine games.  Both teams have very good relief pitching, and both starting pitchers have seen the total go under consistently in recent games.  With Houston a heavy favorite, the total is the best wager today.  Take the Twins and Astros to go under.

Teheran, who we have seen very little of in the past couple of years, looked sharp in his return allowing a single run over five innings in his first start of the season.  Manoah has not looked himself at all to date, and doesn't seem to be improving.  He has an ugly 6.45 ERA in May, averaging barely over four innings a start, with equal K's and BB's this month.  He has  been particularly bad at home.  The Blue Jays still haven't gelled as a team and are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. Both offense and relief pitching have been uneven. The Brewers, also 4-6, are as usual light-hitting, but aren't getting the pitching they usually have, including an average bullpen lately.  The Jays are a medium favorite, but I am just not confident that Manoah's troubles are over yet.  Look for a second strong outing from a voice from the past, and take the Brewers to at least keep this one close. Take Milwaukee +1 1/2.  9 stars!

I was humbled Monday night with a surprise win by the Guardians over the Orioles.  The Orioles are too good for this to happen two nights in a row and they will be burning for revenge.  Expected starter for the Guardians, Quantrill, will be no match for Gibson.  Quantrill has only won 1 of his last 6.  In his last start he lasted 4 innings and gave up 6 runs against the woeful White Sox.  At night he is 0-2 with a 5.13 ERA.  On the other hand Gibson has been hot in his last 2, winning both and only giving up 1 earned run between the two games.  And at night he is 5-2 this season with a 2.84 ERA.

In the Guardians win Monday night they used two of their bullpen aces while the Orioles rested their top relievers from their formidable bullpen as they seemed to throw in the towel. 

At the plate the Guardians have been struggling this season with the 28th avg and the 30th OPS in the majors.  The Orioles are a respectable 15th and 12th respectively.

Even though I am not picking the over/under for this game it is interesting to note that when the total is set at 8-8.5 the Orioles are 21-7 while the Guardians are 11-12 this season.  It all adds up to a solid pick for the Orioles on the Money Line.

The Rangers shutout the Tigers on Monday but face a tough young right hander off a very fine start in Faedo.  He struck out ten with 0 BBs in that outing, but has given up more than his share of the long ball in his first four starts.  The Rangers are very solid power hitters, so he will have his hands full.  For the Rangers lefty Martin Perez starts.  He appears to have found his form after two weeks in the wilderness.  He has been sharp in his last two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 14 innings pitched.  The Rangers are in the hitting and pitching groove, with a fine run differential, scoring 6.4 runs a game while allowing less than three  over the last two weeks.  They've been getting great innings from their starters, and the pen, with rest, has been much better.  The Tigers struggle vs lefties, and Perez is a good one when he is on.  Detroit's bullpen, which has had some fine weeks, has regressed slightly with a 4.65 ERA L10 games.

Tuesday's starting pitchers are a toss-up, but I'll take the Rangers offense to seal the day, and the improved pen to hold on for the victory.   Rangers to win, possibly late.

No doubt that the Under will be a “popular” play tonight in Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics. That’s atypical as the public usually prefers to bet the Over. But history can be difficult to ignore, especially when Unders are on a 37-24 (61%) run in Game 7’s including 11-1 L12 when excluding the 2020 “bubble.” 

But I will go against the grain and take the Over here. We’ve seen a massive adjustment in the number from Game 5 when the O/U line closed at 214.5. 

Each of the last two games in the series saw a combined 207 total points scored. That would now be enough to cash an Over ticket. None of the games in this series have seen fewer than 207 total points scored. 

Neither team shot all that well in Game 6 and we still got to 207. The Celtics shot just 20% from three-point range (7 of 35). The Heat were an abysmal 19 of 63 (31%) from inside the arc. I believe we’ll see better shooting in both regards here in Game 7. 

Even with the last three games in this series all going Under, Boston is 11-5 to the Over in its last 16 games and Miami is 16-6 to the Over in its last 22 games (including 10-2 on the road). 10* 

It has not been common for the Knights, a superb road team, to give up four goals in a non-overtime away game.  The Stars carried it to the Golden Knights, looking faster and sharper, while hemming Vegas in with an blanketing forecheck.  While Hill was impressive at times, he definitely appeared more vulnerable in Game Five, with his save % dropping to below .900 for the first time in seven games.  In the other net, Oettinger appears to have bounced back from his three game slide and has looked more like his dominant self in the last two games.  Robertson has stepped up his game with more chances and better success, scoring three times in the last two games.  Eichel has bee held scoreless in three straight games now. 

With Benn back, Oettinger playing better and the Stars finally with some momentum,  I like Dallas' chances to tie the series up tonight.  Take the Stars, a very good home team to win.

The Rangers have the top offense in the league at the moment and are getting fine starting pitching lately.  So, how do you get around the Rangers' one weak area, their sketchy bullpen?  Just start Eovaldi, who in addition to a 6-2 record and a 2.40 ERA, has averaged over eight innings pitched in his last five starts.  The Tigers aren't even that much of an offensive threat, presently 27th in Runs scored/9.  They'll start lefty Matt Boyd, who as struggled more often than not, with short appearances and a 6.11 ERA in May.  The Tigers pen hasn't been much better than the Rangers lately, and will likely be more heavily used on Monday.  Watch out Matt Boyd.  The Rangers have hit a very hot .338 vs left-handers in their last ten games.  Texas to win.

The Orioles lost a rare home series vs the Rangers, so will be all in today to bounce back against the 4-6 Guardians.  The Orioles are a fine hitting team, facing the worst in the league at runs scored/9.  True to form, the Guardians are batting just .212 against right handers over their last 10 games.  Cleveland's young left-hander Logan Allen (3.31 ERA) has impressed this year, but he has also been a bit lucky.  His hit totals are much higher than they should be, and he has seen his WHIP climb from 1.09 in April to 1.62 in May.  Orioles righty Wells struggled against the Yankees last time out.  He is very successful at limiting hits, but has been a victim of the long ball.  The Guardians trail all teams by a wide margin in home runs this season.  Wells has been much better at home this year. 

There is nothing wrong with the Guardians' pitching but you have to score runs to win games.  Given the hits totals that Allen has given up lately, I expect the O's to take advantage and  put up some runs.  Take Baltimore, 16-10 at home, to win Game one of the series.

The Reds are a very poor road team but they've still managed to take the first two games of the series from the hapless Cubs.  They have feasted on Cubs pitching and also put up a ten spot vs the Cardinals, putting them near the top in offense over the last week.  Reds' starter Ashcraft started the season on fire, but has gone very very cold lately, with an ERA of 10.03 in May.  Cubs' left-handed veteran Smyly has been pretty sharp this year, winning three game in May, with a 2.63 ERA for the month.  The problems will come once Smyly leaves, as everyone seems to be teeing off on the Cubs' relievers.  The Reds have had great success vs left-handed pitching lately.

No one enjoys being swept and the Cubs aren't hitting badly at the moment.  They'll get there chances if Ashcraft continues to struggle.  It is quite likely that the Reds will run up the score in the later innings.  Sunday's total is very average.  I'm wagering on the over in this one.

The Giants have taken three straight from the Brewers in convincing style, outscoring them 23-2.  They'll start their ace right-hander Cobb, who is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in May.  The Giants are getting solid pitching and hitting lately but it is the bullpen that has absolutely shone, with a miniscule ERA over the last ten games.  The much-injured Brewers are giving up nearly double the runs they've scored over the last seven games, hitting below .200 for that time period.  Sunday's starter Rea (4.71 ERA) is a stand-in, but has been a nice surprise for the Brewers.  His last start was a 6 inning shutout over the Astros.  I don't expect he can maintain that level over the long term, and the Brewers' very depleted pen has struggled more than usual lately. The Giants have now won eight of ten games. I'm wagering that they will complete the sweep on Sunday. Giants to win.

The Celtics have now done what only 14 teams previous to them have accomplished. That is to force a Game 6 after falling 0-3 in a playoff series. Now they seek to do what only three other teams have done after falling behind 0-3 - force a Game 7. (No team has ever come back to win the series after being down 0-3). 

Boston’s confidence has to be booming after the 110-97 win in Game 5. Basically, they led for double digits the entire game. Meanwhile, Miami’s confidence has to be waning. This was a Heat team that was really overachieving; they finished the regular season with a negative point differential and negative net efficiency. 

The Heat are 5-11 ATS this season following a double digit loss. Gabe Vincent (ankle) remains questionable for tonight and we know Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are already out. This team is running out of bodies and is really reliant on Jimmy Butler carrying the scoring load.

Boston, on the other hand, had four 20+ point scorers in Game 5. They’ve shot 51% as a team the last two games including 40% from three. It’ll be difficult to maintain those percentages, but there is no denying which of these two teams has the deeper roster. 

The thing about Miami is they actually shot well in Game 5 and still ended up with only 97 points. All the momentum in this series has shifted and I’m laying the short number with the better team. 10* 

The Stars and Oettinger bounced back with an overtime win in Game four.  I really thought that the young Stars goalie was down for the count, but he survived nearly 40 shots with by far his best game of the series.  Hill was again steady in net for Vegas as he has been all series long.  Dallas will be again in must win mode but at least they have now had a taste of success, however the Knights have been very good at making the necessary adjustments after a loss.  With 2/3s of the Stars second line out and with the final change tonight, Vegas can key on the Stars top line which accounted for all of the Dallas scoring in Game four.  This series was always expected to be a low scoring one, and in spite of some subpar goal tending by Oettinger, the last three games have gone under.  Look for another tight checking, low scoring affair tonight, and take the total to go under.

These two teams rang up a ton of runs on Friday.  It is unlikely that the Royals at least will have the same success vs Josiah Gray on Saturday.  He has bee very steady since his second start with a fine ERA and solid numbers of innings pitched.  The only concern with the right-hander is his walks, with a very hefty 15 in May alone.  He will face Singer who has been a major disappointment for the Royals this year.  Singer has been hit hard in recent games with just one quality start in May.  Opposing batters are teeing off at an alarming +.300 rate this season.  He also is prone to walks.

The 1-6 Royals continued their struggles at home on Friday.  The Nats are now 4-2, and leading the league in batting avg. over the last two weeks.  The Royals are hitting just .176 against right handers over the last two weeks, and firmly in the cellar for overall offense this season.  Neither bullpen is particularly effective.  I'll take the better-hitting Nationals, with a more consistent starter to win again on the road on Saturday.

The hard hitting Rangers embarrassed the Orioles at home on Friday, but the the O's are a tough out at home.  Righty Kremer starts for Baltimore, and he has really turned things around in  May, finishing 3-0 with an ERA of under 2.00 against some very tough opponents.  He has had good success vs the Rangers in the past.  The same cannot be said for Rangers' starter Heaney.  The Orioles roughed him up for 7 runs over 2+ innings early in the season.  Since then, Heaney has pitched well, including a 6 inning shutout in his last start.

Rangers batters are on a tear lately, but the Orioles are no slouches on offense and hit left handers well.  One deciding  advantage for the O's is their bullpen, 2nd in the league for the season and well set up for today's game.  The Rangers haven't had solid relief pitching. lately or for the season.  I'll take the Orioles to revenge yesterday's loss, and while it may take until the later innings, to win game two of their home series

Two young future star right handers face off when Keller meets Kirby on Friday.  Keller has been exceptional lately.  His K to BB  ratio is an amazing 18-1, with a very low WHIP to go with it.  Mariners' Kirby has impressed as well, pitching late into games with a low ERA in May.  Neither the Pirates nor the Mariners are hitting especially well in general, nor are they getting much recent  success vs right handed pitching.  The M's have a very good bullpen; the Pirates should get plenty of innings out of Keller. Take this game to go under the total.

We’ve got a high total tonight in this WNBA matchup between Dallas and Seattle. Well, maybe it’s not that high considering the O/U line for these teams' respective season openers closed at 161.5 and 165.5. 

But the key is Seattle gave up 105 in a horrific 41-point loss to Las Vegas. They let the Aces shoot 55% for the game.

I think the value is squarely on the Under for tonight’s game. Though it was “just one game,” the Storm certainly will be cognizant of being better at the defensive end. 

Las Vegas hit 11 of 18 three-point attempts in that game, an absurd percentage (61.1%). No way Dallas is doing that tonight. 

In fact, these two teams combined to go just 15 of 41 from three in their first games. Take the Under. 10* 

As poor as Corbin has been over the last couple of years, it is easy to overlook his recent results.  He has bee consistent, delivering three six-inning starts allowing just two runs in each, while cutting down on the long ball and BBs.  Meanwhile Lyles, with an 8.86 ERA in May, hasn't had a winning start this season, and consistently struggles to get out of the first inning.  Add in the Royals' dreadful home record and their inability to hit and you have to question the Nationals as an underdog today. The 3-2 Nationals are leading the league in batting average over the last two weeks, while the 1-6 Royals are hitting just .195 collectively in their last fifteen days.  I'm jumping on Corbin and the Nationals to continue with their recent success and win on the road.

All of a sudden, we’ve got a series here in the Eastern Conference Finals as Boston staved off elimination on Tuesday, winning Game 4 116-99 as 1.5-point underdogs.

I cashed the Under in that game; albeit barely as we needed the Heat to NOT take a shot on the final possession (which thankfully they didn’t). Of course, there was no guaranteeing a Miami shot would have gone in right before the horn as they shot just 43% overall in Game 4 and 25% from three. 

Even with the series returning to Boston, I don’t see the Celtics matching their Game 4 shooting (51% overall, 40% from three). 

Other than Jimmy Butler, who had 29 points and 9 rebounds Tuesday, the Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options. Gabe Vincent rolled his ankle pretty badly in the last game and Kyle Lowry may be banged up as well. 

Miami is giving up just 108.4 points/game in these playoffs while Boston is allowing just 109.9. I don’t see both teams having good offensive nights here. 10* 

The Stars won't be out tonight down in Dallas.  Missing Benn and with Oettinger essentially a broken man, this is definitely the Golden Knights' game and series for the taking.  Vegas was, as usual, poised and tough on defense in a road game last time out, and I expect nothing different today.  They really have been an elite away team this season.  Add the continued success of Adin Hill, now with a shutout to add to some very stellar play in the post season.  Eichel and the returning Stone are top ten in playoff scoring but the Knights are getting goals from a variety of players.  Without Oettinger holding up in net, Dallas's blueline has been exposed. Take Vegas to finish off a rattled Stars side tonight.

The Cubs have won two straight vs the Mets.  They are an above .500 home team and have veteran right hander Hendricks back after a lengthy absence.  Let's hope he can inspire them to greater days, including a three game sweep.  Hendricks has looked very sharp in his rehab outings.  Mets' starter Carrasco is just one start back from rehab himself, and it wasn't a beauty.  The veteran has struggled as his season's voluminous ERA reveals.  Pitching has been an issue for the Mets this year, with a multitude still on the IL.  They aren't inspiring with the bats lately either.  Meanwhile the Cubbies have stepped it up on offense lately and are getting solid relief pitching L5 games.  Take the Cubs to complete the home sweep of the Mets. 9*!

The top and second top forechecking teams in the NHL (by advanced metrics) are masterful at getting in on the puck.  But it turns out they are also great at limiting in zone high danger chances.  Their skill at forechecking includes an ability to clog up the neutral zone and stifle rush chances.  Both teams still manage to keep things exciting with checkers and puck carriers selling out and sacrificing themselves all over the ice. 

When you combine this with unbelievable goaltending it is a sure recipe for low scoring affairs.  The losing goaltender in this series, Andersen has save percentages of .941 and .950.  That is phenomenal.  But Bobrovsky has been otherworldly with 1.0, .974 and.969 save percentages.  It’s no surprise that the Canes under record is 4-0 in their last 4 and the Panthers is 8-0 in their last 8.  Both teams have averaged totals of 5.4 (Carolina) and 5.2(Florida) GF +GA in their last 10 games.

When you have no high scoring stars on either side it’s no wonder that the under is a must call on this one.  Take the under and enjoy this hard fought hockey to the max.

Both the Cubs’ Stroman and the Mets’ Senga had two strong outings and one weak outing in May.  They are both averaging a little over 5 innings/start and their May ERAs are comparable.  Stroman’s overall stats are better (although his win record isn’t) as he had a scorching start to the season and he has many more years experience than Senga so the edge has to go to Stroman.  Their bullpens have almost identical ERAs and WHIPs for May although the Mets bullpen is maybe a little more rested. 

But this is a night game and the Cubs’ batters are 1st and 3rd in the majors for average and OPS at night.  The Mets are way down in the twenties.  And the clincher, the Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 against the Cubs (20-41 in their last 61). 

The Cubs’ bats have been hot for the last 15 days as they are 4th in the majors in OPS while the Mets are 15th.

So whether Senga or Stroman have one of their strong outings or a weaker one, both bullpens are capable of picking up the slack but the Cubs’ bats are almost certain to carry the day.  The Cubs are the pick.

I think we’re due for an Under in this series as Miami can’t possibly match their shooting from the last game as they went 19 of 35 from three (54.5%) and shot 56.8% overall from the field.

All three of these ECF games have now gone Over the total, two of them by wide margins, but it looks like Game 4 will have the highest closing O/U line of the series.

I don’t think that’s warranted. Boston’s season is on the line, so I don’t expect an up-tempo game. The Celtics are also really struggling from three, especially the last two games where they’re down around 27%. 

For the entire playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 107.9 points/game. They were also one of the top defensive teams in the regular season. 

I’m on the Under in Game 4. 10* 

The Stars have not been getting the goal-tending required for  playoff success in Round three.  In spite of Oettinger's track record, and the Knights being limited to just 24 shots in Game two, Dallas came up in the wrong side of overtime again.  Golden Knights' net minder Adin Hill has looked very sharp in his last four starts.  This is obviously  a must-win situation for the Stars.  Vegas has been a tighter close checking team when playing on the road all season.  I think Dallas will respond with even more defensive pressure, while an obviously weary Oettinger will look to rebound from some poor outings.  Game three will be another close one, with an equally low total.  Take the Under on Tuesday

The Giants are on a roll, winning 6 of 7, while the 4-6 Twins have taken a step back lately.  Neither team would be considered a hitting powerhouse, but both are running out premium starters on Tuesday.  SF right-hander Cobb has two shutouts in his last three starts.  He gave up a pair of runs in three plus innings last time out, but otherwise has delivered innings and quality in his starts with a 1.02 ERA in May.  The Twins' Gray has a very fine 1.64 ERA for the season, but has regressed slightly in May, allowing 6 runs over 14 innings with an ERA of 3.44 this month.

The Giants have been getting top relief pitching lately, better than usual, and better than the Twins.  I like the way Cobb is pitching lately and like also the direction the Giants are going in.  Gray has been very good, but has taken a small step back in May. I 'll take the underdog Giants to steal this one on the road.

Houston is 5-0 in their last 5 and 9-1 in their last 10.  They are on fire.  Milwaukee is at the other end of the spectrum, 1-4 in their last 5 and trending down in every way.  Both teams will start recent callups.  The Brewers’ Rea is 0-3 in this latest stint and has an ERA of 6.97 in his last 3 with a WHIP of 1.65.  He has trended down after a reasonable start to his callup.  France has only been up for 3 starts but has been trending up after a shaky start with only 1 earned run in his last two starts.

If either of these two struggle the Astros have the bullpen to deal with it, while the Brewers don’t.  In the Astros' last 10 their relievers have an ERA of 1.64 and a WHIP of 1.06.  The Brewers ERA is 4.81 and their WHIP is 1.22 over the same stretch.

In terms of offense, the Astros have the 4th best OPS and 3rd best avg. in the majors over the last 15 days.  The Brewers are struggling with the 22nd and 27th best respectively.  The Astros won big yesterday as slight favorites and will be the victors again today with even better odds.

Well, it appears as if we all might as well start preparing to handicap a Denver-Miami NBA Finals as both teams hold 3-0 series leads in the respective Conference Finals and no team in league history has ever blown such an advantage. 

As for whether or not the Nuggets make it a 4-0 sweep over the Lakers tonight, I do not know. I do know that I don’t want to lay points with the home team, who is clearly the inferior squad in this matchup.

But I’m also not convinced that the Nuggets will be able to match their shooting from Sunday where they made 50% of their total FG attempts including 41% from three. Jamal Murray was absolutely unconscious in Game 3, making 11 of his first 13 shots on the way to a third straight 30+ point game in the series. 

On the road, Denver typically is not as good as they are at home. Game 3 marked just the second time this postseason that the Lakers allowed more than 101 points at home. 

The problem for LA is that I just don’t see where an increase in scoring comes from for them. They are already getting as much as you can ask for out of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Anthony Davis had 28 points and 18 rebounds in Game 3, but rarely produces back to back stellar efforts. LeBron James continues to be miserable from three. Take the Under. 10* 

Bobrovsky's three latest appearances, all going into overtime, could become legendary; facing 155 shots, he has turned in a .968 Save %.  I doubted him after that marathon Game one, but I won't this time.  Now throw in Tkachuk, a difference maker in all three series, whose impact on the Panthers' offense has been equally remarkable in the playoffs.  Add Barkov for star power, and the confidence the Panthers are playing with having knocked off two favored opponents, and you have a very tough row to hoe for Hurricanes.  Carolina's lack of offense was a given in this series, but the Canes have met an equally tough fore-checking opponent in the Panthers.  I like the Panthers, with the final change on home ice, to advance to 3-0 today.

Two of the League's lesser light meet up on Monday.  The Tigers are 4 games above .500 in May but they struggle on the road.  The Royals have a horrible home record and are very poor vs right-handers (12-26) this season.  They face a  very tough righty in Lorenzen who has been very sharp lately, with just two runs allowed over twenty innings pitched in his last three starts.  He'll face another right-hander in  an underachieving Brady Singer.  He has been better in his last two starts but has also been hit extremely hard at times this season, hence the bloated 7.09 ERA.  Neither team is hitting well, but the Tigers are at least over .200 vs right lately.  KC is hitting  a startling .181 in the same time frame. Both bullpens have been at least average lately, although the Royals especially haven't been getting many innings  out or their starters. I favor the Tigers on Monday.  Lorenzen has been very dependable; Singer has the talent but has been wildly inconsistent this season.    Take the Tigers, a slight underdog, to win on the road.

The 7-3 Rangers travel to Pittsburgh to face the 3-6 Pirates.  Dunning (4-0, 0.89 WHIP) starts for Texas.   Dunning has taken a huge step this year.  He is consistent and delivers length in his starts.  His ERA in May is an impressive 1.59.  He will face a recent call-up, Pirates righty Ortiz.  With two rough short starts so far, he has more walks than K's to date.  The Rangers are top four in OPS over the last two weeks while the Pirates are down in the depths at 28th.  In spite of the Rangers' poor bullpen, I am taking Texas on Monday.  With superior offense and a much stronger starter, they will steal this one on the road.

The Miami Heat continue to shock and amaze as they have a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning both games in Boston. I wouldn’t necessarily rule the Celtics out just yet, but I also don’t want to bet them as road favorites in Game 3 Sunday. 

So let’s look at the total. The first two games went Over, the first one easily (239 points) and the second barely (216). I think we’re in store for the lowest scoring game of the series as the scene shifts to South Beach. 

Something that should frighten Celtics’ fans is that their team shot well in the first two games (basically 50%) and still went 0-2. I don’t see them shooting as well on the road. The C’s were actually 27 of 44 on 2PA in Game 2 (61%). No way they are repeating that. 

The last four times Boston has visited Miami, the Under has cashed every time.

For Miami, it remains to been seen whether or not Jimmy Butler can keep this ridiculous run going. The Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options besides Butler. The Celtics did hold the 76ers under 90 points three different times in the last round. 10* 

The Red Sox have won four straight games, two of them vs the Padres. Meanwhile, the Padres are an unbelievable 1-9.  About the only things the Padres have going are their bullpen (1.35 ERA L10) and Wacha' starts. The right-hander looks just as good as he did last year, allowing just 1 run over 19 innings, with an ERA of 0.47 in May.  He will face Corey Kluber, who hasn't had many quality starts this season.  The last three have been pretty ho-hum.  His ERA is close to 6.00 this month.  It is hard to imagine but the Padres are dead last in hitting over the last two weeks, however Boston's bats aren't quite as hot as they have been, they are less effective vs right-handers, and their bull pen continues to let them down.  Look for the Padres to  salvage something from this series.  They won on Wacha's last start.  I believe they will win again today.

There are no Bobrovskys in this series.  Oettinger was expected to excel but for what ever reason (fatigue?) he has been little better than average in the playoffs.  Adin Hill was the better goalie in game one.  We have seen a surprising number of high totals from these two teams in the playoffs; 7-1 in the Stars' case, and three straight from Vegas.  The odds-makers keep setting the number at 5.5 but without superlative goal-tending, that number seems low.  It has been a rare game in the playoffs that the Knights haven't scored 4 or more goals.  The Stars have also averaged roughly four goals a game over their last 1o games.  I am jumping on that low number in Game two.  Take Vegas and the Stars to go over the total.

The Lakers (barely) covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2, but my view is that even at home in a desperate situation, they should not be laying this many points to the top-seeded Nuggets.

Yes, LA did have the lead for most of Game 2 before succumbing late (but, again, still covering). However, they were largely dominated for most of Game 1 and did not deserve to get the cash in that game. 

I know Denver isn’t nearly the same team on the road as they are at home, but this is too many points considering their only three losses this postseason have been by a total of 18 points. 

LeBron James has been miserable from three in the playoffs (23.3%) including 0 for 10 in this series alone. The Lakers are not a good three-point shooting team, making it difficult to build/maintain the kind of lead they need to cover this number.

Also, Reaves and Hachimura are due for some regression. Unless Anthony Davis steps up in a major way, I don’t see how the Lakers win this game, let alone cover. 10* 

There has to be a regression to the mean in Bobrovsky’s goaltending.  His .943 save% in his last 6 games is off the charts and way above his seasonal and career numbers.  After an almost 7 period game, this is the time for it to come back down to earth.  The Canes are 3rd in average shots per game while the Panthers are 22nd in average shots against.  Bobrovsky is due for a melt down.  The Panthers’ PK is at 61%.  The Canes PP hasn’t been great but this will be Teravinen’s second game back so he should help their PP and offense in general more than last game.  
Florida has been involved in a lot of under totals lately but two stats point to the Canes being able to make adjustments to juice up their attack.  They are 7-1 over/under on one day’s rest and have a 21-7 win loss record when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in the previous game.  It all points to an over total for game 2. Tired teams usually score more rather than less goals.  Take Game two to go over the total.

The 8-2 Cardinals' offense was kept in check on Friday, but they have been tough to contain lately with 9, 16, and 18 run efforts in their last 6 games.  They will face righty Syndergaard on Saturday.  I am not a fan of Thor these days although his last couple of starts have been OK.  The Cardinals got a good look at him at the end of April and have had success against him in the past.  Don't count on many innings from him.  Meanwhile Cards' left hander Mikolas seems to have re-found his form after a rough start.  Three of his last four appearances have been one run efforts.  St. Louis is a hitting machine at the moment, leading the league in OPS and HRs/ L15.  They have been especially tough on right handers.  The Cards have a better bullpen at the moment as the Dodgers' has been uncharacteristically poor other than on Friday night.

Take a resurgent Cardinals team to bounce back at home.

The Twins have been putting a charge in the ball lately, nearly doubling the Angels in runs scored.  While the Angels are usually the better hitting team, they may not get many chances against the Twins' ace Joe Ryan.  He has done it all this year, but what has he done recently?  How does a 1.00 ERA, 2 runs over 16 innings, and 21 strikeouts to 3 base on balls in May sound.  He'll face Reid Detmers, the Angels very young lefty.  Detmers has had some moments this year, but they haven't been lately; 12 runs over 13+ innings in his last three games.  The Twins haven't been as good on the road this year, but the presence of Ryan should tip the balance.  The Angels big bats are just as susceptible to a dominant starter.  Minnesota will have their chances to keep swinging those hot bats with Detmers and his 6+ ERA in May on the mound.  Take the Twins to win on the road. 9 *!

Both the Stars and the Knights mostly defended well against two offensive juggernauts in round 2.  Probable starting goaltenders Oettinger (2.44 GA avg. .916 save %) and Hill (.245 GA avg. .917 save %) have comparable records.  Oettinger has a 7-2-1 record in his last 10 while Hill is 7-3.  So there isn’t much to choose between them beyond Oettinger’s success in last year’s playoffs against Calgary.
The Stars are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with the Knights.  The Stars have a better record on the road than the Knights have at home.  When you list all the matchup factors Dallas has the edge in offense, defense, PP, PK, faceoffs and discipline.  The only edge for Vegas is in goal during these playoffs but Oettinger last year in the playoffs and all season was far superior to Hill so it is difficult to imagine Hill continuing to carry the day.  Hill is seen as large and slow and clearly Coach DeBoer and the Dallas veteran attackers will figure out how to take advantage of this.  Pick Dallas as the dog and carry the day.
 

Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points. 

The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number. 

The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater. 

I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field. 

The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6.  The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10* 

The Jays play for Kikuchi.  he is 5-0 this season.  Coming off a tough and controversial series against the Yankees, the Jays will be determined to add to their 7-1 record in Kikuchi’s last 8 starts.  The Jays are also 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Orioles. 

At the plate the Jays are 9th in the majors over the last 15 days while the Orioles are 22nd.  And on top of that the Orioles just don’t give Gibson any run support.  In his last two starts the Orioles have been shutout.  Even though the Orioles have a superior bullpen, it can’t score any runs.  Gibson’s streak of 3 straight losses should continue.  I’m riding the Kikuchi wave on this one.

For most of the 48 minutes in Game 1, Denver clearly looked like the better team. But the Nuggets did not cover the closing number, either pushing or failing to cover depending on your shop. I fully anticipate they will cover the spread here in Game 2.

Both teams shot nearly 55% from the floor in Game 1 and roughly 46% from three. Playing on the road, it is the Lakers that are more likely to experience offensive regression in Game 2. This is a team that shoots the three at only 34.5% for the year. Denver is shooting 51% for the year here at home.

The Nuggets are also typically much better at the defensive end at home. In Game 1, they gave up 72 points in the second half. This is a team that came into the WCF ranked #2 in the league, allowing just over 108 points/game on its home court. 

Not only do I not see Anthony Davis scoring another 40 for LA, Austin Reaves (23 points) and Rui Hachimura (17) won’t match their Game 1 scoring either.

The Lakers are 2-9 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 130 or more points. Denver is 41-7 SU at home, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

This is a very tough call. Limited due to injury, the Canes offense was questioned coming into the playoffs and the Panthers were largely written off with a 21st rated defense.  True to form, the Hurricanes stymied the opposition, allowing the least goals of any remaining team.  They were equally tough on the PK, and in spite of a "scoring by committee" approach, have scored as many goals as the Panthers while playing one less game.  Both teams got stellar goal-tending in the last series.  Bobrovsky re-found his form and was phenomenal in the Leaf series. Andersen, even allowing for one very bad game, still finished the last series with a .931 save %. The Panthers do have an edge on the power play but the Canes  have really limited PP opportunities with the least number of penalty minutes.  Carolina was one of the very best home teams this year while the Panthers were much less effective on the road.  Both teams are well-rested. Carolina of all teams should be able to limit the "Tkachuk effect".  Home ice and better defense tips the scales for me in what could be a very close Game one.  Take the Hurricanes, the favorite today, to win.

The struggling White Sox have won two straight games vs the Guardians, and have their ace Dylan Cease on the mound on Thursday.  Cease had a couple of very off games, but he looked great in his last start.  When he is on, there is no one better.  The Guardians' lefty Logan Allen has been a good find.  He has been solid so far, but has given up more than his share of hits in May, and while it hasn't come back to burn him yet, he is living on borrowed time if he keeps it up.  The Guardians could be down two significant pieces on offense.  The can ill afford to lose anyone considering the way they are hitting.  The White Sox have been hitting better recently especially when facing left-handers.  The bullpen has been a real sore point this year, but it has been much improved in their last ten games.
The Sox are better at home, and can expect another fine start from Cease.  I'm wagering on a rare White Sox sweep tomorrow. 

I had the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last night and there was certainly no shortage of scoring there. But for tonight’s Game 1 of the East Conference Finals (between Miami and Boston), I’m anticipating a much different kind of game. 

Now it was mostly Overs for both of these teams in the first round of the playoffs. But then the scoring really started to slow down in the respective second round matchups. The Heat-Knicks series was really played at a “snail’s pace” and never saw more than 216 total points scored in any game. Four of the six games finished at 210 or less with the close-out game being the “low-water mark” at 188.

The Celtics really put the clamps down on the Sixers over the final two games of that series, holding them to 86 and 88 points. In three of Boston’s four second round wins, they allowed less than 90 points! 

I can’t see the Celtics shooting as well as they did when I cashed them in Game 7 vs. Philadelphia. Jayson Tatum scored a record 51 points and, as a team, the Celtics shot 45% from three. 

The Under is 27-13 the last three seasons when Boston is playing on exactly two days’ rest. Their last five games have averaged only 209.2 points. The last five Heat games have averaged just 204.0 points. Take the Under. 10* 

After a rough outing, the Orioles bounced back on Tuesday, holding a solid Rangers offense to 3 runs.  Baltimore is a dominant home team (14-6 this season) facing a .500 Rangers road team.  Bradish starts for the O's.  He has had mixed results to date, but has some up side and his last start was a 6 inning 1 run gem.  He will face Griffin Canning, who's starts are going in the wrong direction.  With an ERA of over 10.00 in May, he has allowed more than a run an inning.  He lasted just 3+ innings in his latest appearance.  There is no doubting the Rangers' offense, but the Orioles are right there with them, one position behind in runs/9. Baltimore has been getting especially fine relief lately, while the Rangers pen numbers are an inflated 6.29 L10 games.
Bradish was brilliant down the stretch last year, and looks to be re-finding that form.  I am wagering on the Orioles today.  They are a fine young hitting team with great success in limiting opposition totals on most days.  Baltimore wins at home. 

The 2-8 Pirates fell out of the winning tree a couple of weeks ago and are barely hanging on to a lower branch at the moment.  They are hitting well south of .200 L10 and are just 1-4 in Detroit. Rich Hill has pitched pretty well for an elder statesman.  His last two appearances haven't been his best however, giving up 7 runs in 9 innings pitched.  Hill won't overpower anyone, and length may be an issue.

The Tigers shut the Pirates out on a fine pitching performance on Tues.  They could have another on Wednesday with Mr. Consistent on the mound.  In his last 5 starts, lefty Edwin Rodriguez has thrown 34 innings, allowing just 2 ER.  No one can match him in innings pitched or ERA this season.  The 6-4 Tigers are no hitting powerhouse, but they are better than the Pirates at the moment, and are getting great relief from the pen lately.  Not that Rodriguez needs much help. The Pirates are big on shooting themselves in the foot in recent games.  Take the Tigers to win at home on Wednesday.

I like the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Over is 8-2-1 this season when either of these teams are on three or more days rest. The Lakers last played on Friday while the Nuggets finished off the Suns back on Thursday.

The Over is also now 29-17 in Lakers’ road games. That includes 3-0 in the Warriors’ series. 

Denver, who comes in averaging 118.7 points/game at home, is going to look to push the pace. They are also shooting better than 50% in all games FOR THE YEAR! 

The Lakers are also going to push pace. In fact they play at the fastest pace of any of the four remaining teams. They spend roughly 1/5 of their time in transition. 

Granted, it was the regular season and the games were back in December and January. But the last two times these teams played, the O/U closed at 238 and 237. There’s clear value on the Over here. 10*

The Braves and Rangers went Over the total on Monday with the former doing ALL of the lifting, scoring 12 runs in a complete beatdown of the AL West leaders.

Today, I’m looking at another Over, only this time the number of runs scored should be a bit more evenly distributed. 

The Braves are 16-6 on the road where they average 5.8 runs per game. They’ll face Dane Dunning, who has been better than expected so far (filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom) and a Rangers’ bullpen that they beat up on as well yesterday. It was five 2-run homers for Atlanta in the series opener.

For the Braves’ sake, they better hope they are swinging the bats well again. Because starter Jared Shuster has given up four runs each of his first two starts and neither time he made it a full five innings.

Texas is the highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 10*

It is hard to believe, but the Mighty Padres have gone under in 10 straight games.  The Royals are 6-3 below par in their last nine.  Th Padres just plain can't hit right-handers and they face a competent one in Keller on Monday.  He has sandwiched a pair of fine outings around a dog of a start vs the A's.  (It is peculiar and frustrating how many times a good pitcher will struggle against such a poor team as the A's).  Keller is wild, but the Padres are hardly the most patient of teams.  The Padres will run out Wacha who is looking more and more like the pitcher of last year, with three straight quality appearances.  The Padres' pen has been very good and the Royals surprisingly competent lately.  Take Monday's game to go under the total.

The Kraken have been a much tougher nut to crack in the playoffs than anyone expected.  The Stars came in as favored, but the series has see-sawed wildly in wins.  The only consistent factor is the over, and I expect another one today. Goal tending and the Kraken offense have been the keys in  Series two.  The Settle goal tending was always suspect, and Grubauer, after a terrific first series, has reverted to an .865 save %  against the Stars.  Oettinger who was expected to excel in the postseason, has been pulled twice and has exactly the same .865 save % as Grubauer.  The high totals are perhaps not so surprising as these were the 5th and 7th ranked offenses, however the Stars' inability to control Seattle with one of the league's elite defenses is an eye-opener.  I am not going to second guess this one.  Take game seven to again go over.

My run on totals is up to 13-3.  This is your chance to jump on board.  Skinner, tonight’s likely Oilers goalie, has alternated good with abysmal starts.  This is his turn for a good one. He has had save %s of .962 and .968 for his great starts.  We won’t talk about his bad starts.  Nurse will return from his suspension which should solidify the Oilers' back end. 

 Aidan Hill has had a .926 save % in his last 10 starts.  Pietrangelo and Kolesar have got their owlies out, so that should limit the power play chances for the Oilers.  The Knights have managed to limit the damage from Edmonton’s top scoring duo in most recent action. That combined with the fact that Vegas plays a different kind of lockdown game on the road should combine with all of the above to create a low event game for game 6. 

Three of the last 4 games of this series have been under.  In the last 8 meetings between these clubs, the under is 6-1-1.  Join me for another fine total selection. We should see a tense, much tighter,  more defensive tonight, especially from the last chance Oilers.The Under is the call for tonight’s game.

Going back to last Saturday, NBA home teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. The only two SU losses both came in this series, the last two games where Philadelphia won Game 5 in Boston and then the Celtics returned the favor at Philly in Game 6. 

I look for “order” to be restored in Game 7, however. What a brutal loss for the 76ers Thursday as they shot 36.1% overall from the field including 8 of 34 (23.5%) from three. I had the Under, so I was happy with the final score being 95-86. 

The Celtics being +21 from beyond the three-point line was huge in Game 6. Since Game 1, there hasn’t been a game in the series where they were outscored from three. 

76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers has blown three 3-1 series leads in his career. This would be “just” 3-2, but I have little confidence in Doc. He has lost NINE Game 7’s, by far the most of any coach in history. Home teams also win Game 7 at a very high percentage. 

The Celtics won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing 14 of his first 15 shot attempts. You’ve got to figure he’ll shoot much better at home Sunday. Boston is the better team. 10* 

Neither of Sunday's starters was especially good in their previous start, but my money is on Sandoval to bounce back.  The left-hander has thrown some fine starts this year, with solid length.  The Guardians' rookie right hander Bibee pitched well in his first two starts but got a major league comeuppance in his last appearance.  In spite of their 6 run eighth inning on Saturday, the Guardians are still in the doldrums on offense, averaging just over 2 runs a game in their nine games previous to Saturday.  They've struggled at home this year and haven't had much recent success vs left-handed pitching.  The Angels are a much better hitting team, and very tough on vs right handers.  Look For the Halos to bounce back with a road victory.

My run on totals in the NHL playoffs is up to 12-3.  I couldn’t believe my good fortune when I saw an over of 5.5 (-120) for Saturday.  I couldn’t write this pick quickly enough.  Dallas, in their last 10 games has averaged a total of 7 goals a game.  Seattle isn’t far behind at 6.8.  As a favorite Dallas’ games have averaged a total of 6.4 goals per game.  As a dog Seattle’s totals have averaged 6.5 per game. Overs are 4-0 for the L4 games in Seattle and 8-0 for the L8 meetings between these two clubs.  And then the clincher for me, Dallas is 5-0-1 on overs for their L6 and Seattle is 5-0 in their last 5. 

Although both clubs were just below .500 for overs against all opponents during the regular season, the playoffs seem to be a different story.  The intensity, physicality and pressure all seem to conspire to create high event hockey.  Jump on the over.

The Cubs won Game 1, but they'll face the ace on Saturday, with Twins' lefty Joe Ryan coming to the mound.  Ryan has been terrific this season with a 2.45 era.  He has allowed just 2 runs over 12 innings in May. His opponent Wesneski has really come around  after a rough start, pitching into the 6th and allowing just a a single run in each of three starts. He can match Ryan with a very low 1.50 ERA in May.

The Twins have just moved into the cellar in OPS/ L7 days.  The Cubs are again creeping up the ranks all the way to 6th in offense over the last week.  The Cubs are also getting especially fine work from the relievers.  Ryan and the Twins are moderately favored, but I am wagering on the relatively unknown Wesneski and the superior offense of the Cubs to steal this one on the road.

Coming off a loss, the Rays are sending out their ace McLanahan (7-0, 1.76 ERA) against Cortes (3-2, 4.74 ERA).  McLanahan has not given up more than 2 earned runs in any start this season including his last three wins allowing only 0, 1 and 2 earned runs.  Cortes’ last three starts have seen him surrender an average of 4 earned runs which is almost an earned run per inning pitched.  I see the bullpens as a wash, as both have pitched 4.0 innings/game in their last 10 with comparable ERAs.

Although Tampa’s bats have cooled a bit lately they still lead the majors overall. Away they are 1st, in day games are 4th.  The Yankees are 22nd in their last 15 games. Except for Torres all the Yankees with more than 4 AB are .200 or below against McLanahan.  Four Rays have hit better than .300 against Cortes.  Take the Rays and run on this one

I don’t understand why the oddsmakers moved this number so low. For the first five games of the series, the closing O/U line has ranged from 223.5 to 229.5. The “low water mark” was the last game, which went Over as the Warriors stayed alive via a 121-106 win and cover.

I understand that both teams shot pretty well in Game 5. Golden State ended up at 51.1% overall and 37.1% from three while Los Angeles was 48.3% and 37.0%. We may not see BOTH teams shoot that well again tonight.

But Game 6 is in LA and the Warriors (as you know) have been dreadful on the road all season (12-34 SU, 14-32 ATS). The primary reason for those dreadful results has been the defense. On the road, the Dubs are allowing roughly 10 points/game more than what they are allowing at home. That is why the Over is 29-15 in all Warriors’ road games. 

One positive for Golden State is that Steph Curry is just 6 of 25 from three the last two games. I say “positive” because you’ve got to expect he’s not going three games in a row shooting that poorly from distance. The team still scored 121 last game with Curry going 3 for 11 on 3PA and not attempting a single free throw.

Golden State did only average 99 points in the two prior games here in LA. But, for the year, they are putting up 117.3 points/game away from home. Expect a better offensive effort from the Warriors here and that leads to this game going Over the total. 10*

There will be no love lost between these two teams in Game five.  Pietrangelo's bizarre attack may galvanize the Oilers, who really stepped it up with their speed and size on Wednesday, limiting Vegas' puck-moving ability. The Knights will miss him more than the Oilers will miss Nurse today. Oilers' net minder Skinner bounced back with a fine start in Game four, but he has had trouble stringing two solid efforts together.  Vegas' goalie will likely be a game time decision, but none have thrived in this series.  The Oilers were much better on the road this season, and have had very good success in Vegas.  If anyone benefits from a choppy game with extra penalties it will be them.  Edmonton took charge in the Kings series in Game 5 and I believe they will do the same today. Look for the Oilers to string a pair of wins together and take today's matchup on the road.

The Knicks staved off elimination once, now let’s see if they can do it again Friday on the road. They obviously come into Miami as underdogs, but that’s okay considering the Heat’s somewhat lousy 22-37-2 ATS mark as favorites this season. I’m taking the points in Game 6 tonight.

It was just a three-point lead at halftime for the Knicks in Game 5 as they got off to a really slow start (just 14 pts in the 1Q). From there, they took control in the second half, going up by as many as 19 before Miami made a late push. The trio of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle once again carried the scoring load (88 combined points) with Brunson’s 38 leading the way. The Knicks also shot much better than normal from three (38.2%), at least by this series’ standard.

I don’t necessarily expect NY to shoot as well from three tonight. But I also don’t expect them to fall into an early hole like they did in the last game. Playing for their season, you know you’re getting their best effort for 48 minutes. I also have my doubts about Miami, who isn’t capable of scoring a ton without Jimmy Butler going off.

The Heat are only shooting 43% from the field in this series and 31% from three. I’m not exactly sure why this spread is larger than both Games 3 and 4 at home. 

Going back to the start of the series against Cleveland, the Knicks are allowing just 100.1 points/game. Given that points figure to be at a premium again tonight, I want to be on the dog. 8* 

I am again confident on this one despite going 1-1 last night.  This is my first under in awhile but the sports books have been taking a beating and they offered up a generous one to try and turn the tide. 

That combined with the new approach Toronto is taking to protect their young goaltender, Woll.  12 different Leafs blocked shots last game as a key point in their heroic defending.  That combined with the fact that Toronto’s core 4 forwards can’t seem to get untracked with Florida’s physical and smothering defense indicates a low event affair tonight. 

Also of note is that all 4 games in this series have been under, Toronto has been under for their last 6 and head to head the Panthers and Leafs are 6-0 on unders for their last 6.  The Leafs may be under the gun to extend this series and you can pick under with confidence for tonight’s match up.

While his ERA wouldn't suggest it, Tyler Anderson has had some good starts this year, including his last two.  It looks like he is back on track after a three game rough patch.  Cleveland's young lefty Logan Allen is off to a solid first season, but he was hit harder in his third start, and may be due for a rookie regression today.  The Guardians' main problem is offense: they just plain can't hit, especially left-handers recently (.141 BA L10).  The Angels' forte is hitting.  They are a top eight offense, and have had good results vs southpaws of late. While their starters have struggled, the Angels have been getting very good relief pitching recently.  Look for  another solid start for Anderson and an Angels' road win.

The Suns need to win Game 6 to stay alive and I think they will, with room to spare, so I’m laying the points.

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have both been other-worldly in this series, combining to average 65 points/game. The thing is they need help. Last home game they got help from Landry Shamet, who scored 19 thanks to making five threes. Whether it’s Shamet or someone else on this Suns’ roster, expect someone to “lend a helping hand” at home tonight.

Denver is 40-7 SU at home, but they are sub-.500 on the road with the scoring differential going from +10.3 at home to -3.0 on the road. So that’s why there’s such a drastic change in the spread from the last game to this one. 

In the two previous home games in this series, Phoenix averaged 125 points on 53% shooting. Denver is simply not the same team defensively on the road as they are at home. 

At home and trailing in the series, the Suns are a perfect 3 for 3 ATS. 10*

Dallas is a heavy favorite tonight, but the Kraken are a much better team on the road, and a very good candidate to bounce back after a loss this season. The total has edged up to 6 today; not surprising as every game has gone well over in the series.  Grubauer did not look sharp in Game four, and was pulled after 40 minutes.  He has been much less successful vs Dallas with a save % under .900 in three of four games this series.  The same could be said of Oettinger, with a surprisingly low  save % of .860.   Fatigue could be a factor; the young goalie has played a ton of hockey this year.    Seattle still managed three goals in spite of the Stars limiting the Kraken to just 19 shots.  The Kraken continue to surprise on offense, and with McCann back, offense could still be the name of the game tonight.  With the topsy turvy nature of wins in the playoffs, I am hesitant to pick a side today but I am big on the total.  Take the Kraken and Stars to again go over.

Boston’s season is on the line tonight in Game 6, but they’ll have to go on the road to force a Game 7. At home in Game 5, it was a bad shooting night overall (and from three), thus I’m not expecting dramatic improvement tonight in Philadelphia.

But, strangely enough, I don’t think the 76ers will match their Game 5 shooting in Boston, which saw them go 50.6% from the field and 40% from three. Both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have been inconsistent for them throughout this series and expecting both to have big games tonight, I think, is a mistake.

Outside of Game 1, where both teams came out and shot the lights out, this has been a pretty low-scoring series. Over the last four games, we’ve seen no more than 218 total points scored in regulation.  Remember  that Game 4 here in Philly went to overtime and was tied 107-107 at the end of 48 minutes.

So I’m looking at the Under here in Game 6. Lost in the shuffle of Philly’s Game 5 upset is that the teams combined for 61 free throw attempts. Don’t think we’ll see that number duplicated tonight.

Most trends to point towards the Over, however, Boston is 7-1 to the Under following a double digit loss at home. Also, NBA Playoff Game 6’s where you have a home underdog coming off a Game 5 win - the Under has gone 5-2 the last seven times. 10* 

Every game this series has been over 5.5 and yet the sports books keep offering it to us and we’ll keep taking it. These two teams have averaged a total of 8 goals/game. Whether the Devils start Schmid or Vanecek doesn’t matter to me. Both have struggled in their last 10 and are barely above .500. Not a good look for the playoffs. So even though Carolina is not the most high octane offense they have consistently got to both goalies. And the Devils have the 4th ranked power play while the Canes penalty kill is 20th ranked. So the Devils should score their share as well. All bodes well for my record with this pick and another total above 5.5 for a fifth consecutive game.

All of a sudden the Royals can hit.  And win games at home.  They have taken three of four from the lowly White Sox who have been just average in offense and very poor in the starting and relief pitching departments. Singer will start for the Royals.  Much was expected this year but quality starts have been rare.  The ERA (8.00+) and opposition BA (.300+) says it all.  Clevinger will start for the White Sox.  He has had mixed results this season, with two of his last three starts of the poor to fair department. He has not pitched well on the road this year.
The bullpens are both in the dumpster this season, with the Sox' particularly poor lately.  The Royals have scored 23 runs in three games against the White Sox, but the White Sox will likely get their chances on Thursday.  I expect another high-scoring game. Take the total to go over.

The see-saw nature of the Oilers/Knights series continued with Vegas stymying the Oilers in Edmonton, allowing just a single goal.  Vegas is a very tough out in away games, and they held the Oilers power play to no goals, while limiting penalties.  Adin Hill replaced Broissoit, and was perfect in game three as he was in the third period of game two.

Skinner was sub-par in game three.  In spite of his fine performance in the previous game, the Oilers have to be wondering about their young goal tender, who has now started 12 straight games.  There is no doubt that the Oilers will be all in tonight, but superior net-minding and their solid defensive road style should at least keep the Knight close in this one.  Take Vegas on the puck line at +1 1/2. 10*

Golden State’s season is on the line tonight after blowing a double digit lead on the road in Game 4. They led the Lakers by as many as 12 in the second half, but a second straight uncharacteristically poor performance at the offensive end doomed them. 

In the two games down in LA, the Warriors shot below 30% from three. Steph Curry was only 3 of 14 on 3PA in Game 4. Now back home, you’ve got to expect a better showing at the offensive end from Curry and his teammates. After all, they are 36-10 straight up and 30-16 ATS at the Chase Center in 2022-23. 

But much of the reason the Warriors are so much better at home than on the road is because of their defense. They are basically allowing 10 fewer points/game at home compared to the road. 

The Lakers are not an efficient team offensively and have shot worse than 30% from three in all but three playoff games. 

After back to back road losses in Sacramento in the first round, the Warriors responded with a 17-point win here at home. Up 3-1 in the first round vs. Memphis, the Lakers lost Game 5 (on the road) by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* 

Two fine  starters square off in today"s Cardinals/Cubs match. The Cards' Lefty Montgomery has struggled in just one of seven starts this season.  He has been especially tough lately allowing just three runs in eighteen + innings. Definitely not a victim of the long ball , he has allowed just two dingers  to date.  The Cubs' Steele has, if anything, been even better.  His 1.45 ERA ranks with anyone in the league.  Neither offense has been particularly successful against left-handers lately, and the bullpens (especially the Cubs') have been very solid.  Take the Cubs and Cardinals to go under the total today! 9*!

The Knicks got strong performances out of Julius Randle (20 points), Jalen Brunson (32) and R.J. Barrett (24) in Game 4, but the rest of the team combined to score only 25 points and as a result, they are down 3-1 in this best of seven series.

But the good news is that Game 5 is at Madison Square Garden. Last time here, the Knicks won 111-105 and shot 40% from three. The other three games have seen dreadful three-point shooting from NY. My hope here is that we’ll see a shooting effort along the lines of Game 2.

I also don’t think the Knicks will be outrebounded the way they were in the two games at Miami. In the regular season, New York was the #2 rebounding team in the entire NBA. 

Defensively, the Knicks have little to worry about. They’ve given up an average of just 99.7 points/game this postseason, which is pretty remarkable in 2023. Miami hasn’t exactly shot the lights out in this series either, though Jimmy Butler has carried the load offensively. 

I’m not really a believer in this Heat team, which is an 8-seed and was on the verge of losing to Chicago in the play-in tournament. They had a negative point differential and net efficiency in the regular season. Them making a Conference Final (would be first 8-seed to do so since 1999) would be rather shocking to me. 10*

Toronto is on the ropes, down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. Everyone, against all the evidence expects them to finally push back and pull off a win. But with their top goalie injured all playoffs and now their second stringer, Samsonov injured as well, young Joseph Woll is thrown into the breach. His NHL career consists of 11 regular season and 2 playoff games. He lost both playoff games. Meanwhile, Bobrovsky has won 6 straight, all but one with a save % over .917. Florida is also 5-0 in their last 5 after a win, and 7-0 when their opponent scores 2 in the previous game. In the 3rd period and OT of game 3 against the Leafs, the Panthers’ scratch and claw style smothered a dispirited bunch of Toronto’s finest. There is nothing to indicate this will change in game 4. Bring out the brooms.

The Cleveland offense is utterly in doldrums so it will take a very good pitching effort to earn a win.  They are particularly poor vs lefties lately.   Rookie right-hander Battenfield (4.07 ERA) pitched well in his last appearance, but it hasn't been all smooth sailing so far.  Still, he has had a reasonable start to his first season.

The Tigers' offense is only marginally better  than the Guardians' for the season, but they have stepped it up lately.  They'll run out their ace lefty Rodriguez, who has allowed just a minuscule two runs in his last thirty-five innings pitched.  Mr. Dependable just needs some run support.   The Tigers' pen has been performing well of late, although Rodriguez, off an eight inning start, may not need much support from the relievers.

Rodriguez as an underdog against one of the weakest hitting teams in the league?  Jump on the 6-4 Tigers to steal this one on the road.

Phoenix has come back to tie this series up 2-2, but they have needed herculean efforts from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, plus a breakout effort from Landry Shamet in Game 4. 

Durant and Booker have combined for a ridiculous 273 points in this series with Booker shooting 66.7% from three and 34 of 43 overall the last two games. Shamet’s breakthrough in Game 4 came out of nowhere (he’d scored just 14 points total this postseason, previously!)

I just can’t see Durant and Booker continuing that pace, Booker specifically, and the Suns’ role players are unlikely to contribute much with the series moving back to Denver.

At home, the Nuggets are allowing just 108.5 points/game for the year, second best in the league. They are simply a much better team at home where they’ve gone 39-7 SU (+10.2 PPG) as opposed to 20-25 SU (-3.0 PPG) on the road.

Nikola Jokic (53 points in Game 4) won’t be suspended, so he’s a go. It’s also time for someone on the Nuggets other than Jokic or Jamal Murray to step up. Similar to Shamet for Phoenix in the last game, I expect someone will. Certainly, Denver will get more than 11 bench points tonight. Lay the points. 10*

The last game surprised in many ways. Oettinger looking so shaky, Dallas so vulnerable without Heiskinen, and so many different Kraken scoring at will. That second period seemed to take the wind out of the Stars’ sails. Coach Deboer is a master at making between game adjustments. Even if Heiskinen plays, the injury could affect his offensive and defensive abilities. Seattle has some confidence now and the home crowd to boost them even more. With the possibility of Grubauer coming back down to earth as well, all of this bodes well for a high event, high scoring game. The over is 6-0 for the last six games between these foes. Dallas averaged 3.83 goals and Seattle average 4.0 goals over that span. The total set at 5.5 seems like a gift. Take the over and make like a bandit.

Seattle thought they had one in the bag last night as they led 1-0 most of the way. That run was scored in the bottom of the first, but unfortunately for the Mariners, it would also be the last time they crossed the plate. Texas rallied for two runs in the seventh and got the win, continuing their hot start to the season.

But it should be pointed out that not only did M’s starter Logan Gilbert shut the Rangers out for six innings last night, he had a perfect game going as well. At one point, seven straight Rangers struck out. 

Tonight, I’m expecting another strong outing from a Mariners starting pitcher, that being George Kirby. He is coming off five consecutive quality starts and has a 0.98 WHIP this season. 

Additionally, Kirby is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in four prior starts vs. Texas, all of them coming last season, his rookie campaign.

Andrew Heaney is on the mound tonight for the Rangers. He is coming off his worst outing of 2023 and has a 4.41 ERA in 15 career starts vs Seattle. After allowing six runs to Arizona in that last start, Heaney’s ERA is sitting at 5.52 for the season. 10*

This series is now tied up 2-2. Philadelphia won Game 4, 116-115 in OT, after blowing all of a 16-point lead. The line closed as a pick, so it was a sweat for those on the Sixers. Over bettors didn’t actually need overtime as the game was tied 107-107 at the end of regulation (total closed 213.5). 

The teams combined to shoot 30 of 78 from three, the best shooting we’ve seen from distance in this series since Game 1. Boston shot slightly better overall, but could not get off a final shot in OT. 

Back home, the Celtics should tighten up defensively. After allowing 92 points through the first three quarters on Sunday, they held the Sixers to just 15 in the fourth on 31.6% shooting.

Philly’s offense has also been very inconsistent in this series, specifically James Harden, who has two 40+ point games (Gms 1 and 4) but scored just 28 points total in Gms 2 and 3. 

Boston shot 58% in Game 1 and dominated the paint, but that was when Philadelphia didn’t have Joel Embiid. The Celtics’ edge in points in the paint has dropped dramatically over the last three games. The Under is 5-2 the last seven meetings here in Boston. 8* 

The Devils woke up on home ice, pounding two of the three Canes' goalies.  It remains to be seen if Raanta can go in game four or if Carolina will return to Andersen.  If it is anything like last series, it will be difficult for the Hurricanes to stuff the Devils' scoring genie back in the bottle, so we could be in for a wild ride in game Five.  NJ will come out flying again. Hughes broke out with four points, but New Jersey got scoring from a variety of sources.  Even Vanacek chipped in with an assist.  I have no faith in either of the Devils' netminders to limit Carolina.  I expect another barn burner with plenty of scoring. Game five will go over the total, possibly well over.

The last two games of this series have both been blowouts, each team winning at home. The Warriors now look to bounce back in Game 4 and even the series at two games apiece. I like the defending champs plus the points.

It was a horrible shooting night for Golden State in Game 3 as they made only 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three. They were also -20 in FT attempts. Meanwhile, the Lakers shot 52.5% from three and were an uncharacteristic 48.4% from three.

I say “uncharacteristic” because six of the previous seven games saw LA shoot worse than 30% from three. 

Anthony Davis had 25 points last game, 11 of those coming from the charity stripe. Davis has yet to have back to back games this postseason with 20+ points. 

I know that Golden State has generally been terrible on the road this year, but they have won at least one road game in every series since Steve Kerr took over, including two in Sacramento last round. This is a team known for bouncing back from a bad loss. 10* 

Man, was Marlins lefty Garrett roughed up in his last game, especially after a good start to his season. 11 runs, and4 HR allowed in 4+ innings has got to rattle a young pitcher's confidence.  He hasn't pitched for length, which could be a problem today.  While the Marlins usually have a strong bullpen, a 14 inning game yesterday and a bullpen day on Saturday will leave the pen seriously short-staffed.  Arizona starter Zac Gallen has hit his stride.  After a poor opening day, he has been tough to beat, with an impressive 57-5 K/BB ratio and a tiny .84 WHIP.  The Diamondbacks have impressed on offense  and are ranked 6th in the league at the moment.  Their weak spot has been their bullpen, but Gallen will likely give them length as a starter.  The Marlins are again a light hitting team, ranked dead last in Runs/9.   After that fourteen inning game and travel time, they could be a little weary.  Take the D-backs on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Golden Knights could not contain the Oilers' high octane offense and their potent power play in Game two.  What was surprising was the Oilers, who are often defensively suspect, limiting the Knights to a single goal.  Vegas has been a much better away team this season, playing a tighter more disciplined style on the road that is very suitable to the playoffs.  They are a very well-coached team with an ability to adjust on the fly.   While the Oilers are a heavy favorite today, I am not ready to count Vegas out.  I think the Knights will focus on slowing down the Oilers down, at the cost of total goals.  The total went under in Game two, and an even higher number is available today. Look for a tighter checking game and take the total to go under.

The Heat won by 19 in Game 3, but it was pretty terrible shooting all-around as both teams shot below 40% from the field and 22% from three. It’s difficult to imagine that level of shooting being repeated, so I’m definitely looking for more scoring tonight in Game 4. 

One player we can count on to score is Jimmy Butler. Ironically, the Heat standout missed Game 2 and that was the one game in this series that has gone Over. But Butler has scored 25 points in each of his last nine games played and he had 30 in all but one game in the first round vs. Milwaukee. 

Game 3 marked the first time all postseason that Butler didn’t shoot 50% from the field. 

Each of the Knicks’ top three players (Barrett, Brunson, Randle) underperformed in the last game and they were a combined 2 of 17 from three. At least one player from that group is going to shoot much better tonight, if not all three.

Miami is 4-0 to the Over when leading the series this postseason. 10*

The Rays' bats aren't quite as formidable in recent games, but they still have the top offense for the season.  They will face some stiff opposition in the home-side Orioles, but, not to fear, the Ray's will run out their ace McClanahan on Monday.  He is a premier lefty off to a banner season.  He is 6-0, .203 ERA, over fifty strikeouts, etc. etc.  There is no reason to suggest a change from consistent quality.  The Orioles' Gibson is a different story.  Anywhere from superlative to poor is possible, and his last two starts have gone in the wrong direction.  Both teams have solid pens, good offense, but the Rays have that irritating ability to manufacture a win in almost any situation.  Tampa hasn't had much success in Baltimore, but I will take McClanahan against anyone.  Rays, as usual, to win.