The last time these two teams played it ended up a high scoring overtime win for the Lighning, but that was a back to back with second string goalies. The Lightning have been impressive of late but they have been feeding on the small fry with a pair of shutouts.  The Wild have a solid home record, and very good offense; The can score a ton, but they do give up a lot of goals.  Talbot has not been as sharp as he was early. Minnesota is a" win big, lose big" team and the over is just average.  Take this one to go over.

The Patriots are winning and often by a wide margin, limiting their last 3 opponents to a touchdown or less. The injury-riddled Titans have given up an average of 20 points over their last 4 games.

Post-Henry, the Titans rush offense has dropped significantly. Tannehill, without the protection of a premier running game and his three top targets, has been exposed and has seen his sack numbers rise to a whopping 31, along with 12 interceptions.

By comparison, rookie Mac Jones has developed well this season, has a higher completion rate, has been sacked less and has 2/3rds the interceptions. His completion rate has been in the 80’s in the last three Patriot games. The Patriots’ running game has found new footage of late, and has been in the NFL top three in their last 3 games.

The Titan 5th rated defense are hard to run against for yards, but they are not as effective in run points allowed. The Patriots are far more effective against the pass.

Injuries may catch up with the Titans on Sunday. With Henry, Jones and Brown all out, and Tannehill exposed, it is hard to see where their points will come from. If the Patriots maintain their withering defense of the last few games, and Jones continues in good form, the Patriots should win and cover.

Patriots

The Jets stagger into Calgary on a back to back and after a drubbing from the Wild.  Flames are rested and have Markstrom in net.  It is likely Comrie in the net for the Jets and he was shelled last time out.  The Flames are on a tear at the moment, have the best defense in the league, and a balanced and potent offense.  At 0-5, the Jets aren't scoring and are not going to break their losing streak tonight.  Take the Flames -1 1/2 all the way to the bank.

UTA/USU

UTA has lost all four games it's played this year against Division 1 opponents and its path doesn't get any easier this evening at Utah State. All that said though, I like the Mavericks to keep this one much closer than what this spread is suggesting.

UTA is already quietly turning the corner with its performance, losing to SDSU by six points in its last outing (as a 19-point underdog.)

Utah State enters complacent here after four straight wins. The Aggies won the Myrtle Beach championship with a 73-70 win over the Sooners last Sunday, so this sets up as a classic "trap" for the home side in my opinion.

Utah State may have been undervalued in the betting market up to this point, but now it's the Mavericks who are in that role.

UTA is playing much better now than its earlier struggles and numbers are still pointing to, so expect that progression to continue here.

Grab the points. Texas Arlington 10* GAME OF MONTH. 

Heat/Bulls

The Heat have lost two of their last three, while the Bulls have lost two of three as well.

These are two of the best in the East, but each is looking to snap out of their current mini-slides. 

Both teams are loaded with talent, so it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument either way.

The Bulls though are off a satisfying 123-88 road win at Olrando just last night (they're only 1-6 ATS in their last seven after a SU/ATS road win in which they posted 120 or more points in.)

Expect fatigue to be a factor here for Chicago and lay the points. 8* Top Tussle on Heat. 

Georgia Southern/App State

No outright, but closer than expected.

This is the "Deeper Than Hate Rivalry" matchup at the Kidd Brewer Stadium. Georgia Southern is off a 34-17 home loss to BYU as a 20-point underdog.

App State though has already locked up top spot and a place in the conferene title game, so I expect it to take the proverbial "foot off the gas" in the second half.

And that'll leave the door WIDE open for the Eagles to run through here. Connor Cigelske was a bright spot in his team's loss last weekend going 11 of 14 for 122 yards, while also rushing for 20 more. Overall the Eagles average 21.8, while allowing 31.8.

The Mountaineers have nothing to play for here. They average 36.5 PPG, while allowing 20.4. Chase Brice is amazing, but I expect the team to play conservative in the second half.

This spread is too large. Georgia Southern. 8* play. 

Houston/UConn

Outright win? I'm not saying that of course. But I think that Houston will go up big, then cost to victory here in the second half as it prepares for the Conference Championship game and its Bowl berth. 

Houston is 10-1 and off the 31-13 home win over Memphis (note that the Cougars are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS home win in which they held their opponent to 13 or fewer points in.)

UConn has only played three games this year that were decided by ten points or fewer. The Huskies are averaging 15.5 PPG, while conceding 37.9. 

Houston averages 38.2 PPG, while allowing 20.1. The only knock against the Cougars this season is their level of competition.

But it's senior night for UConn as well. I say that the Huskies comfortably sneak in through the back door. 10* COACHES CORNER on UCONN. 

Wolves/Hornets

The Wolves are 9-9, but they come in red hot as they've won five of their last six. 

The Hornets are 12-8 overall, and they've won seven of their last eight games. 

The Wolves have been sharp defensively, allowing just 105 PPG. The combination of Karl Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverley has been very effective.

LaMelo Ball leads the nightly charge for the Hornets. He is averaging 19.8 points, 8.1 boards and 7.7 assists this year. While Charlotte does average 112.2 PPG (ranked third), it struggles defensively, ranked 22nd in defensive rating so far this season.

The Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten vs. the Western Conference and I think this is a bad matchup for them.

Grab the points, but don't be shocked by an outright. 8* PICK on Wolves. 

These two powerhouses faced each other in Fla.  in November, with the Panthers winning in overtime.  As good as the Panthers are at home, they have struggled on the road lately, with a couple of unlikely losses.  The Caps are also a very good home team and it is likely their better goaltender is in the net today.  The Caps and Panthers are evenly matched; both with solid offenses and defenses in the NHL top five.  All things being equal, take the home team Capitals to win tonight.

USF/UCF

USF is 2-9. UCF is 7-4. This is senior night for the Knights, but I think they'll get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. 

While the Bulls are only 2-9 SU, they've been profitable for bettors this season at 6-5 ATS. 

And while UCF is 7-4 SU (including 6-0 at home), it's only 4-7 ATS (incl. just 3-3 ATS at home.)

With the majority of the public money on the favorite here, I say this line is absolutely inflated.

USF lost this game by a score of 58-46 last season, and I expect a similar effort from the Bulls here as well.

The numbers/trends and overall situation points to the points as the savvy move. 8* Playbook on USF. 

Missouri/Arkansas.

Both teams are bowl eligible, but an upset victory today for the Tigers will ensure that they have nothing to worry about.

Arkansas is 7-4 overall, and 5-1 at home. It's off a "near miss" in its last game, falling 42-35 at Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog.

After that emotional setback, I say that the Razorbacks have a predictable mental letdown here. I'm not calling for a straight up upset or anything like that, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much tighter game than most are expecting.

The setback to Alabama actually broke a slide of five straight ATS losses for Arkansas.

The Tigers? They're off a thrilling 24-23 OT win at home over Florida to move to 6-5 and I say they have the offense and the overall motivation to keep this one interesting. 8* COACHES CORNER on Missouri. 

The Bills have a few things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. 1. They are healthy, a novel concept in the NFL. 2. The Saints are not. Missing major players in the offensive line, and with Kamara missing and Ingram questionable, the Saints running game has taken a big hit. 3. Siemian is showing his true colors. Siemian’s completion rate is in the 50’s, very low considering the protection he has received, and without Kamara as a run threat and a passing out, he will be even more limited.

The Bills were embarrassed last week by the Colts, their usually solid run defense torn to shreds. The Saints, usually even better against the run, were also pummeled, with much of that coming from opposing QB Hurts. Allen can run. Can he duplicate Hurts’ success? Allen has struggled of late and has not lived up to expectations. This game provides an opportunity for bounce back, if he can control an ugly pattern of turnovers. He has been protected well this season, and the 22nd rated Saints passing defense could be picked on.

I like Buffalo in this game. The Bills have a winning record on the road, the Saints have struggled at home. With a depleted running game, Siemian up against a tough Bills passing defense and with the Saints’ depleted O line, I just don’t see where the Saints’ points are coming from. This is the perfect opportunity for Allen and the Bills to shine. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Baylor/VCU

This is the semi's of the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. I like VCU to carry over its momentum here after upsetting Syracuse 67-55 as a 5-point underdog. 

It's early, but the Rams average 54 PPG, while allowing 52. Levi Stockard III had 15 points in the victory over the Orange.

Baylor is a perfect 5-0. Its' averaging 85.8 points per game, while conceding 55.6. LJ Cryer had 15 points in the Bears 75-63 win over Arizona State last night.

Clearly VCU will be trying to double down on the defensive end tonight to try and grind out the upset. Expect this one to be much closer than what this line is suggesting. VCU 10* COACHES CORNER. 

The Cowboys may not be as banged up as was suggested, which is bad news for the Raiders. At home, in primetime, and after that loss to the Chiefs, Prescott and the Cowboys will be looking to flex their muscular offense. The Cowboys are a very good home team, and they meet the Raiders at a fortuitious moment. The Raiders are struggling in the last three games and in a big way, with points for at 14.3 and huge totals against. Even their very strong pass offense has dropped by 50 yds, and their 3 down conversions are miserable.

Carr has been very good in passing for yards, but trails Prescott in accuracy & passing TDs, and interceptions. Without a prominent run offense or offensive line, Carr has been sacked more often. Aside from Prescott and a variety of fine targets, the Cowboys have a potent two pronged rushing attack with Elliot reportedly available this week. In fact the running game may be a deciding factor on Turkey day, with the Cowboys defending well against the run, and the Raiders, you guessed it, struggling.

The Cowboys’ defense has been better than expected this year; last week, a case in point, they held Mahomes and co. to 19 points. There is not much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one. I am also counting on them to cover. Cowboys

As traditional as Turkey lately, the Lions are in primetime on Thanksgiving day. Make that EARLY prime time! Here are a couple of key notes. The Bears have already beaten the Lions this year and covered. The Lions are 6-4 against the spread but the Bears, while 4-6 overall against the spread, are 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.

The quarterback situation is unclear in Detroit, with Goff being ‘will he won’t he’. On the other side, it will be back up Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton has experience, and will be better protected than usual as the Lions are worst in the league in pressuring the quarterback. Whoever starts for Detroit will face likely more pressure, as the Bears are 2nd int the league in sacks.

This game will likely feature the running game from both reams. The Bears have the advantage in the rushing department with a hot Montgomery and the 6th rated rushing attack against a Lions defense that is 31st in the league. Montgomery ran for 100+ yards and two Tds the last time out against the Lion. While the Lions’ running game has potential, it is middle of the pack in terms of yards. The Bears defense are more likely to control Swift and the Lions’ run game than the reverse against Montgomery.

The Lions are at home, which hasn’t made a difference this season as they are winless. The Bears aren’t a terrific road team but need a victory. The odds have tightened up in the Bears’ favor. I favor the Bears but it will be close. Take Chicago

Heat/Wolves.

Miami is off a 100-92 win at Detroit, unable to cover the 10.5-point spread. The Heat have lost two straight ATS. With two nights off after this, followed by a final road game at Chicago, I think Miami gets caught flat-footed again here.

The Wolves are getting zero respect from the oddsmakers. They're slow in realizing how good Minnesota is playing right now. Minnesota has won four straight and covered in five straight. This is the best basketball that Minnesota has played in years.

Note that the Wolves are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 99 or less points in (just beat Pels 110-96 in NO.)

Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Wolves. 

After a very hot start, the Wild netminder Talbot has struggled in net, and while  the Wild have plenty of offense (4th) they have been scored upon more than average of late.  The Devils are also giving up a lot of goals, 18 in their last 4 games to be exact, and are only middling in defense at the best of times.  Both teams are struggling right now.  I like the Wild's chances tonight but i like the total's possibilities better.  Take the total in this game to go over

Hampton/USF.

The Hampton Pirates are 2-3, and the USF Bulls are 2-2.

Hampton won its first two games, but has since lost three straight. It'll be motivated here and I like wagering on motivated teams. The Pirates most recently lost 86-66 to Georiga Southern, led by Russell Dean with 30 points and three assists.

USF is off a 58-52 loss to Auburn. Caleb Murphy was a bright spot in a losing cause with 19 points.

The Bulls though are a poor 1-9 ATS in their last ten following an ATS victory.

USF gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today as its hangover from the "near miss" vs. the Tigers carries over.

Grab the points. 8* Situational Slam Dunk. 

the Oilers are an underdog here, for no reason i can understand.  Skinner, the Oilers rookie goaltender has been very sharp with a near .940 SV%.  The goaltending situation is uncertain for the Stars as Holtby is day to day, and the Stars other options are not nearly as solid. The two key matchups here are the Oilers' potent offense vs the Stars 22nd rated defense. and the Oilers top powerplay vs the Stars' 27th rated PK.  The Oilers are rested and ready. This sounds like a victory parade to me.  Oilers to win.

Heat/Pistons.

Is Miami the better team?

Clearly it is.

Am I calling for an outright upset?

I am not.

But I think that Miami comes in complacent here and "plays down" to the level of its competition. 

Miami is 11-6 overall, but only 5-5 on the road. It's off a 103-100 loss at Washington. 

Detroit is off the 121-116 loss to the Lakers, and it'll be plenty fired up after the scuffle with LeBron James etc.

The Pistons are on the road for a very tough road trip as well after this game, with a game at Milwaukee tomorrow, followed by the Clippers, Lakers, Portland and Phoenix. That puts added importance onto tonight's game to try and "steal" a victory.

Miami on the other hand is in Minnesota tomorrow night, followed by a game at the Bulls. I think the Heat get caught looking ahead.

No outright. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Detroit. 

Evanvsille/Vermont.

Evansville is 2-4, while Vermont is 3-2.

The Aces lost 109-104 to Rice last time out. Hamar Givance leads the way with 13 points and four assists per game.

So far the Purple Aces have allowed 71.3 PPG, while averaging 63.

The Catamounts are off a 63-61 loss to Oakland. They average 66.2 PPG, while allowing 57.6 (Ryan Davis leads the Catamounts in scoring with 18 PPG.)

The early numbers on paper favor Vermont, but the competition of each side has to be taken into account to this point.

These teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is trying to suggest. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF WEEK Evansville. 

Grizzlies/Jazz

The Grizzlies had won two straight, scoring at least 120 points in each before getting blown out in their last game. 

Ja Morant averages 25.1 PPG for Memphis and he leads four players that average at least 14 PPG. 

The Jazz had lost four of five, before now entering this one having won three straight. Six players scored in double figures in the win over the Kings most recently.

One of these teams is desperate to break out of its current slide, while the other comes in complacent.

I think the hungrier team keeps this one competitive down the stretch (note that the Grizz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS road loss in their last outing.)

Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Grizzlies.

The Giants, well rested after their bye week face Brady and the Bucccaneers off 2 straight losses. New York has been effective on the road ATS this year and has had some success against the Bucs ATS. Jones may have some opportunities against Tampa Bay, as the Bucs’ pass defense, which has struggled all season, has been particularly poor in the last two games. They likely won’t have too much success against the run even if Barkley is back, as the Bucs are very successful against the run.

Is Brady on a downward trend or will be bounce back with a vengeance in primetime and at home? Either is a possibility, although something of the latter is more likely. It is still not certain which of Brady’s targets will be returning from injury.

Will the Buccaneers win this game? Most likely. Will they cover? I have my doubts. Look for the Giants to keep things close. Giants 

The Sabres are off a deflating loss last night, while Columbus had the Sunday off.  Korpisalo likely starts for the Jackets, and he hasn't been strong but Buffalo's third stringer Dell has been worse.  Advantage Blue Jackets.  The Sabres were surprising in the season's start with a brief surge, but are rapidly finding their way to the NHL depths.  Neither team defends particularly well, but Columbus has a distinct edge on offense.  Look for them to win on the road against a weary and demoralized Sabres group.  Blue Jackets to win.

Cal Poly Slo/Nicholls State

This is the Cal Poly Slo men's basketball program's lengthiest road trip in 51 years as the SoCal challenge continues. 

Cal Poly looks to snap a three-game slide, and that's noteworthy, as the Mustangs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a three games or longer losing streak. 

Nicholls State (3-2), had a three-game, season-opening win streak stopped with B2B road defeats at defending national champion Baylor (89-60) on Nov. 15th and TCU (63-50) on Nov. 1st.

One player to keep your eyes on today is Alimamy Koroma, who is averaging 13.5 PPG this year. 

Note as well that Nicholls State is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the -5 to -7.5 points range vs. non-conference opponents.

Grab the points. 8* Cal Poly Slo. 

After 7 straight wins, the Kings have now lost 3 in a row, and will be out for blood tonight against the not so wily Coyotes.  The Coyotes won last night, but 2 wins in a row seems highly unlikely.  Quick is likely in the net for the Kings, and is sporting a shiny .940 SV%.   Vejmelka has been less impressive (.897) and has yet to win a game. Both teams are on back to backs. The Coyotes have very little offense, and for that matter, very little defense (32nd and 31st respectively).  I like the Kings' chances enough to take them on the puck line, which makes them an underdog tonight.  Take the Kings -1 1/2 

An injury-ridden Steelers team limps into LA to face the relatively healthy but struggling Chargers team in a key matchup for both teams. And yes, Ben will be in the stadium. Much of the Steelers’ defense will not start, including TJ Watt. Justin Herbert will likely be breathing a sigh of relief. Herbert, after a very strong start, has struggled badly in his last four games, with a QB rating of under 75 in three of them. Last week he threw for only 195 yards, and the Chargers ARE a pass driven offense. That may change this week as Pittsburgh’s defense is 9th against the pass, but 24th against the run. Look for more from Ekeler, who is more than capable, in Week 11.

With Big Ben back, memories of the Steelers’ pathetic efforts in week 10 can slide into the distance. Not that he has been overwhelming, but the Steelers’ offense certainly appeared rudderless last week. Roethlisberger has improved as the season progressed. The Steelers will likely look to their stellar RB Najee Harris and their running game this weekend. Last week aside, when they didn’t defend well against either,, the Chargers defend well against the pass but are 31st in YPC and dead last in rushing yards allowed.

The Steelers are a good road team, but the number of injuries is a real concern. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from embarrassing week ten efforts. This is a must win for Herbert and the Chargers.  There is a good chance that much of this game will be on the ground, slowing the pace, and lowering the total.  Take the total to go under on Sunday night.

Have the Chiefs really turned things around? They crushed Las Vegas last week, but won in a very un-Chiefs-like manner against a rudderless Green Bay team in week 9. The Cowboys laid their own egg in Week 9 but bounced back in an equally convincing manner. The Chiefs are 2 /12 point favorites, but I can’t see them covering. So much is banking on Mahomes in this game. The Chiefs’ defense obviously played better last week, but the are still ranked 24th over all. While we aren’t talking league leaders here, there is no category that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t better by a considerable margin, in particular at forcing turnovers. Prescott has matched Mahomes in most categories, including average yards and has far fewer interceptions. As far as pass protection goes, Mahomes has been sacked 17 times, and hit 58 times. The Dallas QBs have been sacked 14 times and hit 40. Mahomes has the advantage as a scrambler, but the Cowboys have a pair of top rushing threats in Elliot and Pollard. KC’s top rusher is 45th ranked Williams.

I don’t think this team is up to last years’ Chiefs, and t is going to take more than one convincing win to change my mind. So as the say in Missouri, “Show me”, and then I’ll back the Chiefs. Let’s not forget that ugly number of KC against the spread. 3 and 7! The Cowboys have the best offense in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they stole this game. Take Dallas

Southern/Nebraska

Southern lost its second straight game in a heart-breaking 71-68 loss to South Dakota State this past Friday. While it won the turnover battle 17-13, it lost the rebound battle by a 37-27 margin. Jayden Saddler had 19 points in a losing cause for the Jaguars.

Southern averages 66 PPG, while allowing 73.5. Nebraska averages 73.8 PPG, while allowing 69.2. 

The Cornhuskers enter off a 78-60 win over Idaho State. Keep your eyes on Bryce McGowens today, as he is averaging 16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1 assist per game in the early going.

The Huskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five though vs. teams with losing records and 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing road records.

Southern has played decently, but I say this step up in competition will be too much for it to handle.

Lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Nebraska. 

Colts vs Bills

How Jonathon Taylor goes, so go the Colts. While Taylor has been outstanding, his biggest days have been against inferior run defenses. The Bills have been formidable against pass and run, among other things such as third down and red zone defense and interceptions. Not to mention QB pressure. If Taylor comes up short, it will be tough on Wentz, who can be pretty average or worse (as in last week), to take up the slack with the passing game.

After an abysmal game in week 9, Allen and the Bills came out flying last week. Allen has been impressive other than week 9, with 100+ QB rankings in 6 of 7 games.The Colts pass defense has not impressed, with an average QBR allowed of close to 100 and a 23rd ranked pass yards average. And while it may come from several sources, the Bills running game is still 10th ranked, against a 17th ranked Colts rushing defense.

Beating the 6-3 Bills at home would be a feat. Can the Colts cover? If Buffalo can control the running game, this one could be lopsided. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Vegas and Columbus have both been scoring and allowing a ton of goals lately.  This game will match the 20th vs the 24th ranked defenses. 24 goals were scored for and against for Vegas and 25 for the Jackets in the last three games respectively.  Neither goaltender has exactly stood on their head this season.  That said, the total is an average 5.5 today.  Take the total to continue the trend and go over tonight.

Wyoming/Utah State

This is a big game for 5-5 Wyoming, which needs one more win to become eligible. It does have another chance next weekend, but with nothing to lose here as it tries to score the upset, I do indeed expect the visiting side to keep this one close down the stretch.

The Cowboys are led by a rushing offense that is ranked 47th in the nation. Xazavian Valladay has 797 passing yards and five TD's. Titus Swen has 549 rushing yards and four major scores.

I say Utah State, which smashed SJSU 48-17 in its last game, gets caught complacent here.

Logan Bonner has 25 TD's and ten INT's this year, but the Cowboys are adept at defending the pass.

I expect the visiting to hang around late, so grab as many points as you can!

10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF YEAR on Wyoming.

Western Illinois/DePaul.

A couple of 3-0 teams collide in this one and I expect it to be a real "nail biter." Western Illinois beat Iowa Wesleyan in its last outing, while DePaul held on for a three-point win over Rutgers in its last outing.

Western Illinois does also have a nice quality win over Nebraska already as well. Will Caries led the team with 16 points, two assists and two steals in their most recent win.

David Jones had 22 points and five boards for DePaul in its last outing against Rutgers.

The Lumberjacks are 8-2 ATS in their last ten as a road favorite though. DePaul managed a win last time out despite getting out-played in several key categories.

No outright, but closer than expected for sure. 8* MAULING on Western Illinois. 

Heat/Wizards

Miami is off five straight covers and four straight victories. With two nights off before a game at Detroit though, I think the Heat come out cold here.

Washington plays with revenge after a 112-97 loss at Miami just two nights ago (and that's sigificant to note as the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in.)

I think home court matters in this one for sure. The play is Washington. 10* PLAYBOOK on Washington. 

After a seemingly endless road trip to start the season, the Islanders will be looking for a win in their very first game in their new digs. The Isles have been their usual low scoring selves, but have not been as stingy as usual, allowing almost three goals a game. They will be missing their captain and others to illness tonight. It will likely be Sorokin in net. He is usually solid, but bombed and was pulled in his last game.

The Flames haven’t been quite as sharp lately but own the second ranked defense, and a very potent offense this season. They are tough to play against, a very good road team and net minder Markstrom can be a game changer. I am sure the Flames would like nothing better than to play spoiler tonight, and with the way that the Isles have been playing, that very well could happen. Take the underdog Flames to win.

FSU/BC

Florida State has two more opportunities to become bowl eligible, while BC has already earned that at 6-4. That latest sixth win came last weekend in a 41-30 victory at Georgia Tech.

FSU salvaged its season with a last second win over Miami at Tallahassee as well, as QB Jordan Travis has 274 yards passing, along with 62 yards rushing and two TD's. 

Eagles' QB Phil Jurkovec accounted for five TD's in his team's win last weekend, but I say an inevitable letdown is imminent here for the Eagles, who are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in their last outing.

8* HIGH-NOON BLOWOUT on FSU. 

With the Jets off a tough loss in a shootout last night, one would think that this would be an opportunity for the beleaguered Canucks to step up and show something. They face Comrie in the net. Comrie is the third string netminder for the Jets, but he has been playing surprisingly well in his few appearances. The Jets will be tired, but have superior scoring and a very solid defense this year. The Canucks can’t score, and can’t defend, ranked 27th in both categories. Their PK is shockingly bad and their PP not much better. Can the Canucks take advantage of the Jets on a back to back? I am not convinced.   There are a couple of possible scenarios.  Either the Canucks show some bounce and pot a  few for a change, or completely fall to pieces.  Both involve goals scored.  Take the total to go over.

Bulls/Nuggets

In my professional opinion, this is a great "spot bet." A great spot to bet the Nuggets here who come in off back-to-back losses, including last night's humbling 103-89 setback to Philadelphia.

That's back-to-back losses for the Nuggets now after they had won four straight. With a tough two-game road trip at Phoenix and Portland this week, tonight's game takes on added importance to bounce back.

The Bulls have been great this year. They've already exceeded my expectations. They looked impressive in taking out both the Clippers and Lakers to open up their road trip, but off a loss at Portland last time out, I think they're primed for another letdown here in the finale of their Western swing.

Nikola Vucevic is out for the Bulls, to the advantage goes to Nikola Jokic tonight. 

The Nuggets are still 4-0 ATS in their last four at home, while the Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600.

Lay the points. 8* PROFITS on Nuggets. 

Arizona/Washington State.

Arizona is 1-9. It has nothing to play for here. Washington State is 5-5. It has everything to play for here, especially with a tough matchup in the Apple Cup at Washington next weekend.

It's now or never for the Cougars to gain eligibility. They most recently fell 38-24 at Oregon. QB Jayden de Laura finished with 280 passing yards, two TD's and two INT's. 

I just can't see playing the role of spoiler being enough motivation for the Wildcats today. As Kramer once said to Jerry: "Stick a fork in them, they're done!" 

Arizona is off a 38-29 home loss to Utah. QB Will Plummer was decent with 223 yards passing and a TD.

The Wildcats concede 29.5 PPG this year, while the Cougars allow 26. 

Washington State though is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with losing records. Arizon hasn't fared nearly as well for bettors in this spot though, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog in the +13.5 to +15.5 points range. 

Good news for WSU's defense today is that Arizona is averaging just 17.8 PPG over its last five. 

Lay the points. 8* PLAYBOOK on Washington State. 

These two teams played a week or so back, resulting in a Red Wings victory and an over total.  Vegas has picked it up since then, scoring more often.  Neither goaltender has been startling, and the defenses rank 21st and 27th in goals allowed.  Detroit has allowed 10 goals in their last 2 games, and Vegas 8 goals.  The total is set at 5.5 today which is surprising as  all 6 of the Knights last games' have surpassed that.  I expect this game to go over the total again.

Patriots/Falcons:

Ryan and the Falcons stunk out the field last week, Ryan finishing with no touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a QB rating I can almost count on my fingers and toes. Jones was excellent last week, with his best game of his first year, but one game does not make him the reincarnate of Brady as some are suggesting. The Falcons at home and in the bright lights as well, are not going to want to be humiliated two weeks running. Ryan is a consummate professional and can’t play any worse than last week. I am looking for a bounceback from the Falcons, and maybe a slight fall off from a rookie QB and the Patriots. Don’t expect a win out of Atlanta but they’ll keep it close. Falcons +6.5

Washington/Miami

It's almost impossible to find a game with a total in the 230's anymore. That's a stark contrast from last season's scoring pace.

Note that the Opening Night Nets game had a posted total of 244.5!

Two of the best in the East collide in Miami tonight and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks finally.

Washington has so far allowed just 103.5 PPG, but I expect this up-tempo Heat offense to push the pace from the opening tip.

The Wizards average 108.4 PPG, which ranks 12th, while the Hea average 110.1, which ranks sixth.

Miami has also been good defensively, allowing 103 PPG this season.

But I think this total is now a little too low. The books have overadjusted, as note that the Heat have seen the total fly "over" in ten of their last 14 as a home favorite in the -5.5 to -7.5 points range.

Everything points to a high-scoring shootout.

10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the over Wizards/Heat. 

Charlotte/App State 

Charlotte is 2-0 and I think it'll take 2-1 App State down to the wire (at the very least!)

Most recently the 49ers beat SC Upstate 76-64, while the Mountaineers hammered William Peace by a score of 98-49 in their last matchup.

The 49ers are led by Jahmir Young, who averages 19.5 PPG, while the Mountaineers are led by James Lewis Jr., who scored 15 points in his team's latest blowout.

App State though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 90 or more points in its previous game.

As for Charlotte, it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Grab the points.

Charlotte. 8* SPECIAL. 

The Chicago Black Hawks still aren’t scoring but they are winning; three in a row since sacking their coach. Their previously woeful defense has tightened up, and they have only allowed 5 goals in the last 4 games. Tonight will be a test, as it will be their first road game since the coaching change.

The Kraken are just plain struggling; losers of 4 straight at home and away, while giving up 20 goals in the process. The Kraken have the 29th ranked defense and unlike Chicago, we have seen no glimmer of improvement. An area of note will be the Kraken’s 31st ranked PP vs the Black Hawks’ 3rd ranked PK.

Neither goaltender appears strong, whether the fault of the defense or through their own struggles. Fleurie has at least appeared to be on the rebound.

The Kraken are favored, but I think it will be Chicago that steals this one. Take the underdog Black Hawks to win.

I don't think New Orleans will win this game straight up. If I did, I'd take it at +280.

But I do think the Pels can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Clearly Miami is the better team. It's loaded with talent. The Pelicans are still without their best player in Zion Williamson until the new year. If you want a complete break down of every player on both teams and their strengths and weaknesses, then I'd recommend heading over to ESPN for an update.

I'm here to tell you why New Orleans is going to keep this one close!

The Heat have covered in three straight, but with the surging Wizards coming to town tomorrow, I say they get caught "looking ahead."

Grab the points, this one has all the makings of a nail-biter!

8* COACHES PLAY-BOOK Pelicans. 

NIU/Buffalo.

Buffalo has two chances to try and earn eligibility. NIU is 7-3. The Huskies can improve their berth with a win, but I think the more desperate home side steps up and delivers in this crucial moment.

Buffalo is off a humbling 27-point loss to Miami Ohio. NIU posted a tight one-point win at home over Ball State for its seventh win of the year and I think it'll have a letdown here. Rocky Lombardi is in unchartered territory and I expect him to stumble.

This is Kyle Vantrease's moment to step up. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a 24-points or greater SU/ATS loss in their previous outing.

The outright is possible, but grab the points!

8* SPECIAL on Buffalo. 

The Golden Knights are hot, winning 5 of their last 6 games, but other than the Wild, those teams are a Who's Who of the NHL cellar.  The Canes outscore the Knights, and are ranked 1st in defense.  Carolina's PP and PK are 9th and 5th respectively; the Knights' are 27th and 17th.  In net, Andersen is as hot as anyone, Lehner is improving after a rough start.  take the Hurricanes to win.

76ers/Jazz

Philadelphia is still missing its best player in Joel Embiid due to injury, but it still can't be too happy with its current four-game slide. Obviously.

While their last three games have flown "over" the number, I expect a more methodically-paced affair here in Utah.

The Jazz are off a 111-105 loss here three nights ago. They're rested and I expect a "return to the norm" on the defensive end this evening.

Philly has seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 13 as well after three or more straight losses in a row.

This number is high.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER. 

Bowling Green/Miami Ohio.

With a chance to earn bowl eligibility with a win today, I expect the Redhawks to not only win here today at home in this favorable matchup, but to do it in blowout style.

Bowling Green is just 3-7 SU this year. It's a disproportianate 7-3 ATS though. Miami Ohio is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS.

Bowling Green was just torched 49-17 at home by Toledo and I think it'll have a difficult time keeping pace here today as well as an even bigger underdog.

Miami Ohio ran up thescore in last weekend's 48-18 win here at home over Buffalo as a 7-point favorite and all signs point to a duplicate game-plan here.

10* COACHES CORNER Miami Ohio. 

The Sabres, off a tough loss against the Leafs, travel to Pittsburgh to face the Penguins. The Penguins have Crosby back, and while that will undoubredly help the offense and the struggling PP, it won't solve defensive issues.  This game pits the Sabres' 21st rated defense vs the Penguins' 26th rated defense. Niether Jarry nor Tokarski had been bombproof this season.  The Sabres' offense has been unexpectedly good, and we can expect un uptick  in the Penguins' scoring numbers.  The total is slightly inflated, but still the way to go.  Take the over today.

The 7-2 Rams face the home team 3-5 49ers. Both teams are off a loss; the Rams loss to the Titans particularly stung. Rams QB Stafford had a down game last week but he has been dominant this season with 8.89 yds per, and 23 Tds vs 6 interceptions. His opponent Garopollo has been ok for the season, and was decent in a losing cause last week, but his tenure is uncertain with the 49ers.

The Rams lost Woods, which will hurt and add Beckam in some capacity and possibly Von Miller. The 49ers are also beaten up, missing their #2 running back, and other key pieces.

The Rams have a pass-dominated offense, but can and may look to run the ball more this week. While the 49ers defense is strong against the pass, they are poor against the run. And while the 49ers don’t allow many passing yards, they still allow more than their share of passing TDs. The Rams defense protects well against the rush, but are average against the pass. They are very good defending in the red zone.

Garopollo was sacked 5 times last week, which is not normal, but a disturbing trend. The Addition of Von Miller, if available adds to an already decent pass rush.

The Rams have lost 4 straight against the 49ers. Off the loss last week, I like their chances to change that stat. The 49ers have lost 4 straight at home, and contrary to expectations, just don’t seem to have it together this season. Take the Rams to win and cover today

Suns/Wolves

The Suns are 9-3 after their 115-89 win at Houston last night. With two upcoming home games against Dallas starting on Wednesday, followed by Denver and a four-game road trip, I think Phoenix finally stumbles here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

Minnesota is off a 129-102 loss at the Clippers. The night before that they hammered the Lakers 107-83. 

Now the Wolves return home and I expect this healthy team to make a game of this one.

Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the second game of a B2B after holding its previous opponent to 95 or fewer points in the first. 

10* GAME OF WEEK Minnesota. 

Northwestern State/SMU

Northwestern State is 1-2 SU, but 3-0 ATS. SMU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. 

The Demons beat lowly Champion Christian last time out by a score of 91-62. Kendal Coleman had 19 points and 11 boards.

SMU enters off an 86-63 loss to a good Oregon team. Emmanual Bandoumel was good in a losing cause with 14 points, five boards and one assist. 

The Mustangs are the bigger and more athletic team. The Demons haven't faced any tough teams yet.

This is a David vs. Goliath matchup, but in this version, Goliath stomps the underdog through the hardwood. 8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on SMU.

The Red Wings are trending upwards, winning 4 of 5 games. They have solid goaltending and have been stingy, giving up two goals a game over the last four. Columbus has lost their last two, and has given up 15 goals in their last four games. It is likely Nedeljkovic vs. Columbus’s Merzlikins in the net. Both have been solid, although Merzlikins did give up 5 goals on 41 shots against the Rangers last start. Neither offense is particularly startling. The Blue Jackets are favored tonight, but their defensive letdown lately is troubling. I am looking for the Red Wings to steal this one. Detroit to win.

Bulls/Clippers

The Bulls West-Coast opener didn't go so well in Golden State, but I think this young, deep and talented visiting side can bounce back here and before the face the Lakers tomorrow night in this building.

This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Clippers, who pulled away for a win and cover against the Wolves last night.

Fatigue is an issue now at this point of the season. LA is dealing with several injury issues as well.

The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a SU/ATS road loss in which they allowed 120 or more points in as well.

I think the outright upset is in the cards. That said, let's grab the points.

8* SITUATIONAL COACHES CORNER on the Bulls. 

Anyone taking the Chiefs in this matchup is banking on a return to form from Mahomes. He has shown no sign of it, even in the win last week, throwing for only 166 yards, 1 TD, and 4.5 yds average. And it is not as if last week was a one-off. Carr wasn’t great last week either; while he threw for 260+ yards and a touchdown, he also threw two interceptions. He has allowed only five previous to that game. Carr can be explosive and has the highest pass yards average at 8.2 yds. To put this in context, Mahomes has been at 6.0 yds per completion since week 5. It is all about the passing game on Sunday; neither team has much of a running game, although the Raiders are improving.

The Chiefs’ defense is lamentable, poor against the run and pass. They are 30th in passing yards per attempt average, and tied with Raiders at 28th against the run. The Raiders are solid against the pass (14th) and very good at limiting passing yards per (2nd). Where the Raiders really excel is in pressuring the QB. They are 6th in QB pressure and 2nd in QB hits. It could be a long evening for Mahomes and Chiefs’ offensive line.

The Raiders have faced a ton of turmoil in the past weeks, but things should start to settle. Much is at stake in this game; I’m looking for Carr and the Raiders to put off-field issues behind them and cover if not win against the Chiefs.

The Penguins are an enigma this week, first knocking of the Panthers, they dumped by a seriously depleted Senators team.  In back to back games, they face the Capitals tonight.  In the net for the Penguins is Jarry (.929 SV%), facing the Capitals' Samsonov (.894).  The Caps have won three straight and had the night off on Saturday.  Their offense, as usual, is purring along but there defense has also been very good; fourth in the league, and even stingier at home.  The Penguins, scoring just over 3 goals a game are obviously missing their big two, especially in the power play where they are scoring at only a 9 % rate. Spoiler alert: Crosby may return todnight..  They have also struggled on defense, allowin over 3 goals a game.  Crosby or no, look for the Capitals to take this one.

WKU/South Carolina

Both teams are 1-1, but I like WKU to come out on top here. The Hilltoppers beat Alabama State, then it came up short against Minnesota. 

The Gamecocks enter off a tight loss to Princeton and I believe they'll struggle again here.

After only scoring 23 points in the first half against the Golden Gophers, WKU made a game of it last time out, eventually falling 73-69. I think Davyion McKnight, who had 34 points, nine boards and four assists, and company will keep the momentum rolling here. 

South Carolina beat USC Upstate, but then lost 66-62 to Princeton. 

Off that 46 point second half, look for the Hilltoppers to keep that good times rolling.

8* MAULING on WKU. 

The 3-6 Eagles are on the road against the 5-4 Broncos this week in what should be a close matchup. The Eagles running game has been very successful of late with three solid options, but the 8th ranked Broncos’ defense is much better than the Eagles’ last few opponents’. QB Hurts doesn’t throw for many yards, although he does contribute on the rush. Last week was one of his better outings, however he will face a very stiff Broncos pass defense.

For the Broncos, Bridgewater has been solid and accurate, if slow off the mark. He has been sacked often; the Broncos’ offensive line has the injury bug. The Eagles pass rush really struggled last week with no sacks, and little QB pressure. If this continues, look for Bridgewater to have a solid game, and pick the Eagles apart.. The Broncos also have a decent running game of their own, with two viable options. The Eagles rush defense struggles, allowing 120 yards per game.

The Broncos have a more balanced offense and a solid defense. They are tough to beat in Denver.  Look for them to gut this one out. Some very favorable odds are available, so don’t wait on this one!

Saints/Titans

The Titans, solid in their first game without Henry are home to the Saints who are without their starting QB and RB Kamara. Kamara is a huge part of the Saints’ rush and pass offense, and will be missed. The Saints did pick up RB Ingram, but he is not a complete replacement. Siemien played well in his two starts as backup QB, with 3 Tds and an 89.5 Qb rating. He has been well protected so far, but that may change this week. The Titans have been rough on passers, sacking the Rams Qb 5 times last week with 11 QB hits. The Saints will struggle to score points. Their passing attack is 31st rated; it and the run will both take a hit without Kamara.

The Saints are a very well coached team, and have a highly ranked defense against the run. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They do not defend against the pass very well, so it may be time for Tannehill to step up the Titans’ passing game. Tannehill has been average this year, but seems to generate offense when needed. Tannehill has been sacked 27 times this season, but the 31st ranked Saints don’t muster much of a pass rush, He has been intercepted 8 times, so controlling turnovers will be a key on Sunday.

The Titans defense is average against the run, better than the Saints against the pass, but where they excel is getting to the QB. The Titans have handled some potent offenses in their five game win streak; the Saints, missing key players, would not qualify in this category. Tennessee is a successful team at home, and have a lot of momentum at the moment. Some decent odds are available. Take the Titans to win and cover.

Wolves/Clippers.

I like the Wolves to keep the momentum rolling here after their big win over the Lakers last night. The Clippers are off a 112-109 win over Miami, but with a more high-profile nationally televised game against the Bulls here tomorrow night, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead.

Minnesota broke a six-game slide in last night's 107-83 win here against the Lakers last night. Fatigue won't be an issue this early in the season. Note that the Wolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a SU/ATS road victory in which they held their opponent to 90 points or fewer in as well.

I won't call for the upset, but I think the confident Wolves take this one down to the wire again. 8* play on the Wolves. 

Davidson/San Fran.

Davidson destroyed Delaware 93-71 at home on Tuesday, but I think it'll struggle to duplicate that success in this difficult road venue.

The Dons smashed Prairie View A&M 92-76 on Thursday and they're now 2-0 SU. Davidson was 13-9 last year, but it lost its offensive heart in Kellan Grady to Kentucky.

San Fran won't win the the conference, as it's in the same one as Gonzaga, but this is the best Dons team on the floor in years. They return four starters from last year and are led by Jamaree Bouyea, who had 24 points last time out.

Look for the Wildcats to struggle on the road against this vastly improed Dons team. 8* MAULING on San Francisco. 

Notre Dame/Virginia 

Both teams are eligible. Each is looking to improve its bowl berth now. An upset victory over the Irish would sure look good on the Cavs resume.

While it's not out of the question obviously, I'm going to grab the points in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments.

The Irish have used three different QB's this season (Jack Coan, Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne.) 

The Notre Dame defense is elite as well. Last week it held Navy to 6 points.

The Cavaliers won their sixth game of the year, then they came up short in last week's 66-49 loss to BYU on October 30th.

They come out of their bye week having posted 48 or more points in three straight games.

With a week off to prepare, I think UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall will have a good game-plan drawn up.

As I said, I think the outright/upset is possible, but let's grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on UVA. 

Leafs/Sabres

Two untested third string goal tenders are in the net by necessity for the Leafs and Sabres and both teams are in back to back situations tonight. At this point the Sabres score and allow more goals, but there are signs of the Leafs’ offense opening up. The Leafs are a hot 7-1 in their last 8 games, while the Sabres are almost the reverse. This is the first NHL experience for both goalies, and with two tired defenses, the score could mount up. Take the total, which is slightly inflated to still go over.

Mississippi State/Auburn

Auburn is 6-3 and it's now bowl elgible. Mississippi State is just 5-4 though, so I expect it to fight tooth and nail today to also become eligible. Outright win is possible, but let's grab the points.

The Bulldogs are off a tight 31-28 loss to Arkansas, while Auburn fell 20-3 to Texas A&M.

Mississippi State has lost three straight in this series, so it'll be motivated to reverse that trend. 

The Bulldogs are led by dynamic QB Will Rogers (great name!), as he's completed nearly 75.2 percent of his passes. Auburn has struggled against the pass, which doesn't bode well facing a Mike Leach offense. 

The Tigers have been good under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin. RB Tank Bigsby is an offensive standout. 

Auburn though is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Mississippi State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a conference road dog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range.

The Bulldogs have so far covered as a road underdog in both such instances this season and everything points to that trend continuing today. 8* SHOW-DOWN on Mississippi State.

Wyoming/Boise State.

Wyoming if 5-4. Boise State is 5-4. The Cowboys are just 1-4 in conference, while the Broncos are 3-2. 

The Cowboys kept their bowl hopes alive with a big 31-17 home win over Colorado State. I say they keep it rolling here. QB Levi Williams had 92 passing yards and two TDs.

Boise State improved to one game over .500 last time out as well with a 40-14 road win at Fresno State, with QB Hank Bachmeier going 15 of 27 for 283 yards and a TD.

Ultimately though in this crucial game, I tihnk it'll be the Cowboys' stout defensive play which keeps them in it late (concede only 21.3 PPG).

Boise State is the better team, but I don't think by this many points. 10* PLAYBOOK on Wyoming. 

Pistons/Cavaliers.

I've been impressed by the Cavaliers this year. They're 7-5 SU and they've won six straight against the spread. The recent loss of Colin Sexton is going to catch up to them though, and I firmly believe that'll be sooner, rather than later.

The Cavs get caught looking ahead to their game here against Boston tomorrow night, while Detroit will look to take advantage.

The Pistons have covered in two straight and they're off a big 112-104 outright win at Houston as 2.5-point underdogs last time out.

This one sets up as a possible outright upset, but grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Pistons.

The Oilers are on a back to back on the road, with Skinner (.921) facing the Sabres' goalie Tokarski (.902 SV%).  The Sabres have fallen back to earth after their hot start, and have now lost 6 straight.  More to the point, they have allowed nearly 5 goals a game over their last 4 starts, while scoring 11.  One thing you can count on from the Oilers is offense.  They are first in the league in goals scored, facing a 22nd rated Sabres defense.  This will be Skinner's second start this season, so he is a bit of a wild card, and the Oilers are hardly defensive paragons, having allowed 11 goals in their last three games.  The Total is slightly inflated, but the over is still the way to go tonight.

VMI/Presbyterian

The Blue Hose are 0-1, while the Keydets are 1-0. I think VMI is the correct call here.

The Keydets smoked Carlow University in their opener, while Presbyterian fell to Clemson. 

The Keydets though are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, while teh Blue Hose are interesting 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday and just 1-5 ATS in their last six off an ATS victory.

Outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VMI.

Ravens/Dolphins

Much has been made of the Raven’s ability to dumb it down this season vs poorer teams; they ARE only 3-5 against the spread. Miami is worse ATS at 3-6, which is a point to consider. After being shelled last week with favorites failing to cover, the last thing I want to do is pick another favorite, but the Ravens and Jackson are too potent and explosive, and the Dolphins’ 30th ranked defense too poor to do otherwise.

The Ravens defend poorly against the pass, but they will face a questionable Tagovailoa, with an injured throwing hand, or Brissett, who was hardly dominant last week. The Dolphins have no running game to speak about, and a struggling offensive line. Not to mention, a very high rate of turnovers.

MvP candidate Lamar Jackson is a quality passer and a top ten rusher. The Ravens’ offense has surpassed 400 yds 4 times this season, and is more than capable of the “big plays”. And don’t forget their kicker, who can add three consistently from anywhere over center.

With a damaged quarterback, the Dolphins may have to turn to the running game, and this is one area where the 23rd rated Ravens’ defense does excel.

Take the Ravens to win and, yes, cover..

UNC/Pittsburgh.

UNC needs one more win to become eligible, but I think it'll come up short on the short week. The Tar Heels had fight from behind all day in last week's upset OT win at home over Wake Forest.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot?!

Pitt on the other hand is off a 54-29 win over Duke and I believe it's superior defense will prove to be the difference-maker today. 

The bottom line here is though, that this game doesn't in fact "mean more" to the Tar Heels. If Pitt wins out, then it'll earn a spot in the ACC Title game. 

The Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game as well, while the Tar Heels are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory.

Lay the points and expect a decisive result.

10* ACC GAME OF YEAR on Pittsburgh. 

Raptors/76ers

I like Toronto to bounce back here after last night's 104-88 loss at Boston.

The 76ers are ravaged by COVID right now and I expect the Raptors to quickly regroup here and to take advantage.

The Raptors have performed well in this position by going 7-1 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I'm not buying into the "fatigue factor" this early in the season either.

Philadelphia has lost two in a row, and with a six game Western road swing on deck after this, I expect it to go through the motions here as it prepares for that daunting trek.

Look for the Raptors to deliver on Thursday night.

10* COACHES CORNER on Toronto. 

Islanders vs. Devils

The Islanders are their usual low scoring, solid defense selves this year and must be getting used to road games by now. Sorokin (.939 SV%) is likely to start and he is a definite step up from the Devils’ Blackwood (.910 SV%). The last time the Isles faced Blackwood, they pummeled him to the tune of 5-1. The Devils have a winning record this year, but are down Jack Hughes, and Hamilton is questionable tonight. They have an under-performing PP and PK at the moment, and are average with just under 3 goals for and against. The Islanders are off a loss, are healthy and well rested. Their goals against average is 6th in the league. I see the Islanders bouncing back tonight. Islanders to win outright.

Air Force/South Dakota.

The home side went 14-11 last year. The Falcons on the other hand won just five games last season, and they have almost an entirely new roster this year (AJ Walker is back, he averaged 15.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.6 assists.) 

Overall the Falcons averaged only 58.7 PPG last year. 

South Dakota averaged 79 PPG, and this year it'll lean on A.J. Plitzuweit, who last year averaged 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game.

The Coyotes have four of their starters back this year. After going 0-4 in non-conference play last year, I think South Dakota comes in focussed here. Lay the points.

10* SPECIAL on South Dakota. 

FAU/New Mexico

FAU finished 13-10 last year and it's looking for its third straight winning season under coach Dusty May. New Mexico was terrible last season, finishing 6-16. The Owls went 7-5 in Conf. USA play. There are two double-digit scoring options on FAU. The Owls put up 78.1 PPG last year. 

The Lobos have plenty of issues coming into the season. Offense was the biggest issue, as New Mexico averaged only 65.3 PPG. 

The Lobos were terrible last year and it's going to take some time for Pitino to gets things turned around. I like the Owls to lay the hammer down here in what will be a hostile environment. 10* Coaches Corner on FAU.

Hornets/Grizzlies.

I'm expecting an all out war until the final horn. 

10* PLAY-BOOK on Charlotte. The Hornets played a back-to-back at LA, losing badly to the Clippers, but then bouncing back with a much better effort in what turned out to be an unfortunate 126-123 OT loss to the Lakers.

The Hornets have now lost five in a row (both SU and ATS), but I expect them, at the very least, to give the Grizz everything they can handle tonight.

Memphis off a tiring 125-118 OT home win over the Wolves, so I believe fatigue is a factor here. Also note that it's a look-ahead spot with Phoenix coming to town next.

I believe these teams are evenly matched on paper. That gives the advantage here to the "hungrier" team, which as I've clearly pointed out above, is the Hornets in my opinion. 10* Charlotte.

Ball State/NIU 

NIU is bowl eligible at 6-3, while Ball State needs one more victory as it's just 5-4. I think this matters. I believe the more desperate team will find a way to victory this evening (and that hungrier tearm is definitely the Cardinals!)

NIU lost 52-47 at Kent State last time out and I think it comes in exhausted here. Ball State is off a 31-25 win at Akron, but it can't be happy with the performance as the Cardinals were a 20-point favorite in that one.

The Huskies are terrible defensively and the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range.

I'm laying the points, the play here is Ball State.

The Sharks will be very shorthanded due to Covid protocols on the road against the Flames.  They've started well, but this game will be tough, especially with Adin Hill in net (.886 SV%), and the long list of players out.  Calgary is healthy, rested, and playing a very balanced and disciplined game right now.  The Flames have the 5th rated offense in the NHL at the moment, with scoring from a variety of sources.  The Sharks are scoring just under 3 goals a game, and allowing 2.6.

With Hill in net, it is likely that Calgary will continue to pot a few.  Markstrom hasn't been quite as lights out in 2 of his last 3, and the Flames have allowed 2 of 3 to go into overtime, adding to the total.  This will be a very overworked team on Tuesday night.  Take the total to go over.

Bucks/76ers

Yes, Joel Embiid is out for the 76ers, but I'm still expecting a faster-paced shootout between these two Eastern Conference heavyweights. Philaldelphia is out to rebound off last night's 103-96 loss here at home to the Knicks (it's seen the total go 'over' in ten of its last 13 after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to fewer than 99 points in though.)

Milwaukee is just 4-6. It's playing terribly. It's lost 113-98 to New York, then 101-94 at Washington. With the White House visit out of the way though, I think the Bucks' offense returns to form here (amazingly the Bucks have seen the total go 'under' in eight of their ten games this season.)

It's next man up in Philadelphia. This number is low, the play is the over.

Miami Ohio/Georgia Tech.

I like Georgia Tech to roll over its MAC opponent today. The Yellow Jackets finished 17-9 overall last year, including 11-6 in the ACC. GT returns five of its top seven scorers from last year. 

The Jackets warmed up for this game by hosting Morehouse in an exhibition contest on Oct. 31st, defeating the Maroon Tigers, 89-52.

The Redhawks finished 12-11 overall and 9-8 in conference play. Miami will be improved, with nine of its ten players returning, but I still don't think it'll be enough here.

Tech is too deep and I expect it to send an early statement on its own floor. Lay the points, the play is GT.

Buffalo/Miami Ohio.

Buffalo is 4-5. It's gone 2-3 in conference play. They're off a 56-44 loss to Bowling Green. 

Miami Ohio is also 4-5. Both teams need two more victories to become bowl eligible. The Redhawks though are 3-2 in conference play. Off an upset 35-33 loss to Ohio, I like Miami Ohio to get back on track here in this crucial and important matchup.

The Bulls' offense revolves around RB Dylan Mcduffee, but their defense concedes 31.8 PPG. 

That's bad news facing the Redhawks, who have the 34th ranked passing attack in the country with 264 yards per game. Keep your eyes on QB Brett Gabbert, who already has 1,435 passing yards.

Buffalo's defensive issues come back to haunt it again. Lay the points, the play is Miami Ohio.

Siena/St. Bonaventure.

Sienna was 12-5 last year, taking the reg. season co-championship in the MAAC, while St. Bonaventure easily won the A-10 and went on to play in the NCAA Tournament.

Siena eventually lost 55-52 to Iona in the Conference Tournament semifinal. 

The Bonnies however also won the regular season title over VCU, and eventually fell 76-61 to LSU in the First Round.

The Saints are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. The Bonnies are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 at home.

All five senior starters return for St. Bonaventure, so lay the points here!

10* Bonnies. 

Monday Night Football pits the Bears, off three losses, vs the Steelers, winners of three in a row. As the Steelers offensive line gels and the running game gains traction, Roethlisberger’s stock is on the rise once again. Last week he passed for 266 Yds, a TD and had a 98.4 QB rate. Rookie Najee Harris has showed remarkable improvement in his first season, and had 91 yards rushing last week. The Steelers broke the 100 yds mark three times in the last three games. The Steelers have allowed 14 sacks, and have only 7 turnovers.

Last week was Rookie Justin Field’s best game, but he IS the 32nd rated QB, very inexperienced, and averaging just 123 ypg passing with 7 interceptions. The kid can run, last week for over 100 yds, but having been sacked 26 times already this season, it is probably out of self-preservation. The Bears are 6th in rushing yards, but overall their offense is as low as it gets.

The Steelers defense is solid and improving. They are very strong in pressuring the passer, sacks, controlling the run and they don’t allow a ton of points against.

The Bears’ defense has been uncharacteristically poor of late. In their 3 game skid, the Bears have allowed over 140 yds rushing per game, and had no sacks last week.

The Steelers are at home, and are on a roll. It seems it is a favorites day for me, but I believe the Steelers will win and cover.

Panthers/Rangers

The Panthers have started this season about as well as is possible. Winners of three straight, they have a bit of the injury bug, but that hasn’t really affected them. Bobrovsky might be back in the net on Monday which would be good news, although Knight has been okay. Whichever goalie is in, the Panthers have allowed less than 1.9 goals against so far this season, combined with a second in the league goals for avg.

The Rangers have struggled in their last three games on the road. Losing all three, they were outscored 15-7. This, inspite of hot goaltending from Shesterkin. The Rangers’ offense, 27th in the league will have its hands full with a Panthers defense that is 2nd in the league overall. Rangers on home ice isn’t going to cut it; take the Panthers TO WIN with surprisingly good odds.

Titans/Rams

The Rams are a 71/2 point favorite this week against the Titans. I have had my struggles this season with favorites covering, but here is one to trust. The loss of Titans’ running back Henry is inestimable, not just in replacing his yards (they can’t) but in the impact on Tannehill, the offensive line and the passing game. Without the threat of Henry, Tannehill, already sacked 24 times, will spend even more time on his butt, and a dimension of the now critical passing game is lost.

The Titans are up against a very hot QB and team in the Rams. Stafford was terrific last week, has 22 TDs against 4 interceptions, and has a connection with Cooper Kupp that more than equals the Tannehill-Brown pairing. The Rams’ offensive line is best in the league allowing just 8 sacks, and very good at blocking for the run. And let us not forget that Henderson JR. is the seventh ranked rusher in the NFL.

The Rams defense is the best in the league at sacking the QB, and good against the pass. It is not know if their huge addition, Von Miller, will play this week but it would be a huge boost.

I am sure it will take the Titans some games to adjust to their Henry-less universe. Take the Rams to win and cover against the Titans this week.

Islanders vs. Wild.

The Islanders, with an 18th ranked offense, are on the road against the Wild, with both teams in back to back games.  The Wild can pump out the goals, to the tune of 3+ per game, but have given up a 26th rated 3.4 goals a game.  While the Isles haven't scored a ton, they have been typically stingy in the goals against category, allowing only a pair per game.  It will likely be Sorokin (.938, 1.98 GA) vs the Wild's Kahkonen, who struggled very badly in his only start this year.  The Islanders shut out the Jets on Saturday and opened up the offense against the Habs earlier in the week.  The Wild took it to overtime and a shootout before winning on Saturday.  While it is another road game for the Isles, they should be used to it by now.  Take the underdog Islanders, with Parisse looking for a bit of payback, to steal one.  Islanders to win.

Falcons vs Saints

The Saints are down a starting QB, the Falcons, their top receiver. This may impact the Falcons more, as the Falcons are an extremely pass-centric team, and Matt Ryan has few effective targets as it is. New Orleans will start Siemien at QB. He filled in very well by any standards last week. They likely will miss Winston but the Saints are not a very pass-focused offense. They have a solid running game around Kamara, and it just got a lot better with the deadline addition of Ingram. Ingram is a former Saint, and should fit in easily and well.

This game pits the 27th and the 31st rated offenses in yards per game. With such low offensive yardage, Saints have a better record and score more points than might be expected considering these numbers. They are a very well coached team, and have the 4th ranked defense. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They are also 2nd in the league in defensive points scored, which is significant in low scoring games.

Ryan is a competent QB, but with little support from his receivers, no running game and an ineffective offensive line, he is often left hung out to dry. And while the Atlanta defends well against the pass, they have the 26th rated defense against the run.

I think the running game will be key in this match-up. Look for a solid performance from Kamara and co. and the New Orleans defense, in another low scoring game. Take the Saints to win and cover.

GoldenKnights/Canadiens

While still down key players to injuries, the Golden Knights seem to be slowly righting the ship after winning 4 of their last 5 games. They still haven’t scored a PP goal this season but that could change on Saturday vs the woeful Canadiens. The Habs are allowing a 27th worst 3.3 goals avg this year and have a very poor PK. Montreal goaltender Allen has shined at times, but overall is just average. His opponent Lehner is at .915 SV% and climbing.

Neither offense is showing well, but the Habs’ is particularly bad, scoring just 2.0 goals on average per game. Vegas has played statistically better on the road this season. Look for them to win again vs the Canadiens

Mississippi State @ Arkansas

This is a big game for both teams, as each sits at 5-3. They each need one more win to become bowl eligible. However, I really do think that the home field will be a big advantage for the Razorbacks today.

Mississippi State is off a 31-17 home win over Kentucky, but I think it'll stumble here on the road. 

Arkansas State won't be lacking for motivation here obviously, as it's just 1-3 and last in the SEC West. Arkansas pulled off the upset 21-14 last year over Ole Miss as a 16.5-point dog. 

Will Rogers was 36 of 39 for Ole Miss last weekend, but I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for him this weekend.

Arkansas comes in rested as well off its bye. The Razorbacks are 100% healthy and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine when coming out of their bye week and playing at home.

Look for Ole Miss to stumble off last week's big win and for the rested home side to pull away down the stretch.

Liberty @ Ole Miss 

Two teams that are already bowl eligible will look to close out the regular season strong and improve their berth in the process.

Liberty is 7-2 and off a 62-17 crushing of UMass. QB Malik Willis had 307 passing yards and four TD's. 

The Rebels moved to 6-2, but they then fell flat in last week's 31-20 road loss against No. 18 Auburn. QB Matt Corral was a bright spot with 289 yards passing. 

I don't expect a heavy emphasis put on the defensive side by either club. Look for this to fly over in the latter stages. The play is the over.

Predators/Canucks

The Predators, on the road and with their third game in 4 nights face the struggling Canucks. While the new additions to the Vancouver lineup have largely been successful, the top scoring line of the Canucks has been slow to start. The Canucks are scoring only 2.4 goals per game, and with a struggling power play. The Predators at 5-5 are middle of the pack in many regards, with goals for at 2.7 and goals allowed at 2.9. They are getting solid goaltending from Saros, who has been very sharp, particularly against Calgary 2 games back.

The Canucks have also had solid goaltending. But for Thatcher Demko, the Canucks would really be in the dumpster. Allowing 2.6 goals a game, the defense is an improvement over last year but is still a work in progress.

The Predators are missing Forsberg which is a blow. The Canucks are missing a pair of fourthliners, who are important in the PK. With the low-scoring Canucks and two topnotch goalies, I’m looking at the total in the ‘Nucks/Preds and thinking under.

Jets/Colts

The Jets were a great story in week seven. Worst knocks off first with the backup quarterback leading the way. They ought to make a movie.. White wasn’t just good; he ended with 400 passing yards and a very high pass completion rate. He was poised and conservative, with no passes over 15 yards. How will he do this week? The Colts’ pass rush is not overwhelming, with 16 sacks, and the defense has allowed 243 yds passing to date..

The Jets had huge and affirmative press this week, but was Week 8 just a one-off? This is the same Jets team that lost to the Patriots 54-13 the previous week, that has a running game of 75 yards a game, and 3.6 avg carry.i

The Colts are off a loss, with Carson Wentz in the hot seat. Wentz had his worst performance of the year, and ended the game with some key errors in judgment. He was back to last year’s habit, throwing two interceptions. It is hard to know how he will respond, but he might want to check out White’s last week performance for some ideas. Wentz has been hit an astounding 61 times this season and sacked 16 times. The Jets pass rush is improving, but they are not a force at this moment.

The Colts have the advantage of a very strong running game, with Jonathon Taylor leading the way. Taylor is also a very good pass target. Again, Wentz might want to rely more on the run, as the Jets are not effective in defending against the run.

There is a ton of pressure on Wentz to perform this week, and no guarantees as to his response. On the other side, the Colts are forewarned about White. Any win will buoy up the Jets, and they must be riding high this week. I think the Jets will cover, but don’t expect an outright win..

Golden Knights/Senators

After the blockbuster trade for Eichel, the immediate impact on the Golden Knights is minimal, as Tuch was already out, and Krebs, while a good prospect, has been largely a non-starter this year. Vegas is coming off a 4-0 drubbing against the Leafs. The defensively-suspect Senators are back home after a 1-2 road trip. Gustavsson (2.96, .916) is probably their best bet in goal. He faces Lehner, who has not excelled this year with a .906 save %. Vegas has real scoring woes, with a 2.22 goals for avg. and remarkably, still no powerplay goals. Zero! It is no wonder that Vegas isn’t scoring, missing 3 key offensive players.

Defensively, it is the 26th ranked defense (Vegas) vs the 27th rated defense (Ottawa). The Senators can at least score a few goals.  I think they are due today.  Take the Senators to win this one.

Blues/Kings

The Blues meet up with the Kings in LA on Wednesday. This is the third meeting between the two clubs, with the Blues up 2-0. LA is off a pair of wins, and veteran Kopitar is defying age as their leading offensive threat. Shut him down and there goes a good part of the offense, as the Kings goals/game is 22nd in the league (2.44). Their goals against is worse, at 2.67, and they are now missing two key defensemen. Goalie Petersen has not hit his stride with a below average .895 save %.

The Blues have started strongly this season. Their unbeaten streak was broken, but they are now 2-0 again. They are scoring very well (4.14 GA), and have the second best PP this year. The Blues defense is tough to play against, and they are also 2nd in the NHL in PK. Goalie Binnington has steadily improved this season and now sports a save % of .926.

Of note, both these two teams are missing key players due to Covid protocol.

One of these two teams will go 3-0 on Wednesday. My bet is that it will be the Blues. Take the Blues to win outright.

Predators/Flames

What a turnaround for the Flames this year! They are on a 6 game win streak, five of those wins on the road. It is not just Markstrom (1.33 GA, .957 save%) who is hot.  Hard line coach Sutter has this team playing a disciplined brand of hockey (2nd in the league in goals allowed), and they are getting scoring from a balanced attack, counting 3.6 goals/game.

The Preds are on a 3 game win streak of their own, but I believe they will struggle vs. the Flames. Saros (2.45 GA, .917 save %) is likely in the net, and he has been solid. The Predators can’t match the Flames in offense or defense at this point. A match-up to watch will be the Flames’ formidable power play vs Nashville’s struggling PK. Take the Flames to win outright. These are generous odds.

Braves (Fried, 1-2, 5.40) vs. Astros (1-2, 7.62)

As a handicapper it is hard to have faith in either starter in Game 6. Rookie Luis Garcia has been all over the map; two short poor outings, followed by a 5+ inning gem, followed by a wild effort where he struck out six, walked four, but only allowed 3 hits and a run. To top it off, he is pitching on only three days rest. Like any starter in the post season, he will be on a very short leash. The Astros’ pen has been excellent right through the series, has a 1.50 ERA, while used for over 4 innings per game. And with the immediate threat of elimination, anyone and everyone is available in relief.

I want to believe in Fried on Tuesday. I won a ton of games with him in the regular season, but he has not impressed in the post season. Much is made of soft hits, and his performance after the second inning of his last start, but he allowed 6 runs in that start, and 5 in the previous start. He is at least pitching on 6 days rest.

The Braves bullpen, ridden mercilessly through the postseason, over-achieved until game five when the Astros bats finally woke up. It may be a case of overexposure, and does not bode well for Game 6. The same could hold true for the Astros pen. Game 6 may be the tipping point for them. There are very hot hitters on both sides.

I don’t think we can expect a low-scoring game; either one of these starters could fail, and as mentioned the relief could also falter. I think the bats will rule on Tuesday. Take game 6 to go over.

Take the high octane Oilers, extraordinary on the PP so far, and with more than the usual 1-2 punch for offense this year.   Add the Kraken on the road, on the butt end of a back to back and with a back up goalie, and what do you get? A recipe for a high total.  And don't forget. While Edmonton has potted 29, the Kraken have 22 goals themselves this season. Take the total to go over.

Giants/Chiefs

Before everything gets out of proportion, does anyone think that Mahomes will ever play as poorly as he did last week again? Even after last week’s debacle, the Chiefs still have the 3rd ranking offense. And yes they do have the fifth worst defense, but don’t forget that the Giants have the 27th rated defense AND the 20th ranked offense. So where has the Giants’ defense looked strong(er)? Not at applying pressure on the QB (29th) or QB hits (20th). They have created turnovers, but they are poor vs the run and barely average vs the pass. The Giants had 6 sacks last week, but that was not typical. Mahomes should have more protection this week, and perhaps the Chiefs will take the opportunity to try something different on Sunday, like step out with the running game.

Jones has been a middle of the road but improving QB this year, and the Giants have their star running back and 2 top receivers out this week. Don’t look for a ton of points from the Giants, even against a struggling defense.

The Chiefs are vulnerable, but I don’t think the Giants match up as a team that can exploit their weaknesses. Given his opportunity this week against the Giants, I am looking for the Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back. Take Kansas City to win and cover.

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers

The Rockets are 1-4 and the Lakers are 3-3. Neither team is happy where it sits as far as its win/loss record is concerned.

The Lakers are a massive favorite here, but they've been terribly inconsistent from game-to-game. 

Off a 113-101 win and cover at home here over the Cavaliers, LeBron James and company will be cautious to not lose focus or to take the foot off the gas. The schedule is different for both clubs, as they'll have a night off before playing here again on Tuesday night.

Houston's off a poor 122-91 home loss to Utah. Note though that it's seen the total go over in eight of its last 11 after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or less points in.

I don't expect a huge emphasis by either team on the defensive end. Look for this one to produce and exciting, high-scoring outcome and take the over.

Cowboys/Vikings.

Sunday night football will be well worth watching this week as the high-scoring Cowboys meet the improving Vikings. The Cowboys’ big concern is whether Prescott will play, but it appears he will. Both teams are off a bye, and both had wins in week 6. The Cowboys won in a mistake-filled game against the Patriots, with Prescott airing it out for seasonal best 445 yds. Prescott has been more than impressive this year with a QB rating of 115, and 16 TDs opposed to 4 interceptions. We will see how he does against a tough Minnesota pass rush. The Cowboys balance their offense with a very potent “a 1 and a 2” punch running game.

Cousins was equally impressive in week 6, with 300 yds and 3 interceptions. Cousins has a QB rating of 105 for the season. The Vikings running game in the name of Dalvin Cook had a season-high yds total, and Cook looked in better health. The Vikings defense have a very good pass rush, causing low pass completion rates, with a very high number of sacks. Where they struggle is against the run, both in yards allowed, and average carry. This is concerning considering the Cowboys’ twin threats of Elliot and Pollard.

While the Cowboys defense do not pressure opposing quarterbacks very effectively, and give up too many passing yards, they have caused a very high total of interceptions. They are also very good this year in shutting down the run.

This is a very potent Cowboys offense that has managed to outscore any defensive miscues to this point, and their defense is much improved over last year. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread, and the Vikings are 3-3. I am looking for the Cowboys to go 7-0 ATS and to again win and cover.