Canadiens/Ducks

The Habs have a pair of wins, finally, but are still struggling with poor goals for and equally poor goals against stats. They have only scored more than 1 goal a game in three starts. They were thumped by the Kings yesterday, and will start back up Montembeault (1 start, 5.00 GA, 861 save %). This is not good news, considering they are still missing two key defenders.

The Ducks have only a pair of wins themselves, but have 3 overtime losses as well, in addition to other 1 goal losses. They are no longer the dull team from last year, with some very good young players. The Ducks have scored 3+ goals a game but have allowed more at 3.3. They are missing Rakell on Sunday, but will still showing better, I think, than the Canadiens.

On the road and on the butt end of back to backs, this is a demoralized Habs’ team. Look for the Ducks to fly away with this one. Ducks to win outright.

Bengals/Jets

It would be a major upset for the Jets to cover against the a surprisingly good Bengals team, especially now with an inexperienced back up QB Mike White in the game. Last week, Burrow was impressive against a much better opponent, passing for more than 400 yds and 3 touchdowns. The Burrow to Chase connection has been a real eye-opener. Burrow’s only real negative is the number of interceptions he has thrown. The Bengals offensive line is improving, but allowed Burrow to be sack regularly in early games. The Jets’ pride is their pass rush. The Jets only hope of keeping the score down, other than Bengals complacency, is to take advantage the Bengals’ weak point, and pressure Burrow into committing more turnovers.

To cover, the Jets will have to put points on the board and that does not look promising with an offense that doesn’t rush or pass well, against a Bengals’ defense that is strong vs both. The Jets are the only team with more interceptions allowed (11) than the Bengals.

Bengals RB Mixon had an off game last week, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against the Jets.

Bengals will win and cover against the Jets.

Flyers/Flames

The Flyers, in their third game on the road, face the Flames on Saturday. The Flames swept their recent road trip. Can the Flyers do the same? They’ll have to put a few past Markstrom, and that is no small order at the moment. He has a 1.25 goals allowed avg., a .944 save % and has two shutouts in 3 games. Markstrom can absolutely be a game changer when he is on.

Carter Hart will likely start for the Flyers. He hasn’t won me over after last year, but he has been steady (.915).

The Flyers are 2nd in the league in goals scored. They have 6 players with a point or more per game but a very scoring %. This may not be sustainable. Calgary is no slouch for goal scoring either at 3.6 per game. Calgary’s defense is 4th in the league with a 2.1 goals against avg. The Flyers are 10th in the league, allowing 3.0 goals per game. Ryan Ellis will likely still be missing.

After a poor season last year, Calgary made some solid changes that are coming home to roost now. Saturday’s game is only the Flames’ second home game of the season. Look for a bit of a show in front of those home town fans. Calgary to win outright.

Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls

I really respect the Bulls and what they've done in the early going. This appears to be a team that's going to be in the playoffs and even contend for the East title this season, but I think that the visiting side is a matchup problem for it today. 

The Jazz are 4-0 and they're off a relatively simple 122-91 win over Houston. 

The Bulls are off their first loss of the season, falling 104-103 here to the Knicks, also losing the services of swingman Patrick Williams for 4-6 months with a wrist injury.

Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record, while Utah is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 following a SU win.

But for this pick, I say let's throw the spread out the window. The strongest play is to lay the price on the Jazz on the moneyline.

Duke @ Wake Forest

Duke comes into this ACC Matchup with a 3-4 record. Last week, they got absolutely torched by UVA 48-0. That makes them now 0-8 their past 8 games played against opponents from this conference. On the road this year, the Blue Devils are a sad 0-3 ATS. They've also allowed 440+ yards per game from their opponents.

The Demon Deaconds come into this game with a perfect 7-0 record. They are off a huge win against Army where they dropped 70 points on the scoreboard. Dating back a few seasons, Wake Forest is a dominant 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in October. QB Sam Hartman has been unbelievable this season as well. With 19 TDs and only 3INTs, while adding 4 more TDs on the ground, Wake couldn't be more happy.

With Wake Forest having beaten UVA by 20, and Duke losing to them by 50, I expect no short of an annihilation this Saturday. Take the Demon Deacons.

Michigan @ Michigan State

Two 7-0 teams collide on Saturday afternoon. This has all the feelings of a good old fashioned "slobber knocker." I think that the team that has possession of the football last is going to come out on top, it's seriously that close.

And so, that definitely means that I'm going to grab the points and the determined home side.

One thing benefitting MSU here is it comes out of its bye week. It's had an entire week off to prepare for this one. 

These teams are very similar on both sides of the ball. Their offenses for the most part revolve around the run game. 

MSU though is 5-1 ATS in its last six here against the Wolverines, while Michigan is interestingly 0-5 ATS in its last five against the East Division.

There are more on the line that just bragging rights this season. Major implications for the College Football Playoff race and the Big Ten are on the line today.

Everything points to, at the very least, a comfortable cover for the home side. The play is MSU.

Dallas Mavs @ Denver Nuggets

Denver is just 2-2. It's definitely looking to rebound off a 122-110 loss at Utah two nights ago.

Here's the perfect opponent and opportunity to do just that. Dallas is now 3-1 after last night's come from behind 104-99 home win over the Spurs. With a much easier home game against Sacramento up next, this sets up as a very real potential letdown spot for the visiting side.

Denver's had two whole nights off to regroup and prepare for this one. The Nuggets hit the road for three straight as well after this, starting in Minnesota tomorrow night. That puts added importance onto this contest for the home side.

Whether Joker plays or not for Denver, I think the well prepared and much hungrier home side is the correct call here.

Kristaps Porzingis is not the players he once was. He's constantly injured and may not even play for Dallas tonight. Luka Doncic is unbelievable, but after shouldering the load last night, I say he comes in fatigued here.

Look for the Nuggets to find a way to deliver here. The play is Denver.

Game 3 in Atlanta features Houston rookie Garcia vs the Braves Anderson. In three post season starts, Garcia bombed in the first two, lasting only 3+ innings and allowing 10 runs. He then pitched into the 6th allowing 1 hit and no runs. Some work was done on his mechanics before his last start and it appears to have been very successful. Garcia’s velocity was up, and all of his pitches were very sharp.

Anderson has also started 3 games in the post season. His first start against the light-hitting Brewers was his best one. Against the Dodgers, who hit almost as well as the Astros, he allowed a combined 3 runs over 7 innings. Anderson in his brief time in the MLB has a history of strong performance in the playoffs.

Both bullpens have been heavily used, more than 5 innings per start, but the Astros’ has performed much better, with an ERA of 2.67 as compared to a 4.03 ERA.

The Astros are a solid road team, and very strong against the right. Both teams were poor in interleague match-ups this year, in particular the Braves. The Braves have a winning home record but they are not as overpowering as many teams are at home.

While both teams have potent offenses, the Astros hitters are dominating the postseason offensive stats.

It is a crap shoot which starter will perform better, but all starters are on a short leash. I favor the Astros on Friday. They have just too much batting muscle at the moment, and with the recent showing of their bullpen, I think they will prevail. Take the Astros to win.

Thursday night Football pits the 6-1 Packers on the road vs the undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals beat up on the lowly Texans last week. The Packers were not really as impressive in their win against Washington as the score might suggest. The Cardinals have faced much stiffer competition in their 7-0 run than Green Bay has faced. In addition, Green Bay is likely down their top pair of wide receivers, which was enough to drive up the line this week. The Cardinals are reasonably healthy.

On paper, the Cardinals lead the Packers in all major offensive and defensive situations, including QB.

2nd rated Murray has completed a higher % passes for more yards and more points than 6th rated Aaron Rodgers. The only advantage Rodgers has in in interceptions allowed. And a lot of experience..

Quarterbacks aside, a key to this game will be whether the Packers’ defense can handle (or not) the Cardinal’s running game. The 23rd rated defense allowed 430 total yards against Washington, and have been very poor vs the run and in the red zone for much of the season. They have 18 sacks. The Cardinals defense has been solid against the pass, at least average against the run and has 19 sacks.

I don’t think Rodgers can pull this one out of the hat; too many parts are missing and just too much competition this week. Take the Cardinals to win and cover.

Avalanche/Blues

Are the Avalanche starting to show signs of life? It wasn’t evident in their loss vs a shaky Golden Knights team. Despite their poor play, they are a road favorite vs. the 5-0 Blues. Missing their captain O’Reilly for ten days is a blow, but the Blues have plenty to feel good about. They have scored the most goals in the league to this point, averaging 5 a night. (The Avalanche are 21st..) They have allowed 2.29 goals a game. Colorado has allowed 3.8, which is 30th in the league. The Blues have an enormous advantage in both the PK and PP to date. And to top it off, Binnington is out pacing Kuemper with a .919 compared to to .900 save %. The Avs are missing a pair of defencemen, not good news when your defense is struggling at the rate they are. With as much offense as they have it is only a matter of time before they start scoring. Will it be on Thursday night? That might be premature. Take the underdog Blues to win this one.

Troy @ Coastal Carolina

Troy is 4-3. It's a big underdog on the road here against 6-1 Coastal Carolina. The Trojans won't be just rolling over here though.

Troy is off a confidence-building 31-28 road win over Texas State. QB Gunnar Watson was 22 of 29 passing for 182 yards and a TD in the victory.

The Chanticleers though are coming off their first loss of the season in last week's 30-27 road loss at Appalachian State. Clearly, Coastal Carolina will be looking to take out its frustrations this week on this weak Trojans defense as it looks to make an immediate return to the winners circle.

The Trojans have been decent defensively this year in conceding only 19.6 PPG, but they just allowed 28 to the Bobcats, so I believe they're going to be in trouble again here on the road.

CC QB Grayson McCall owns the sixth-highest QBR in college football at 85.8 and he's completed 77.3 percent of his passes for 1,769 yards with 15 touchdowns to a single pick.

I think these two offenses move the chains from start to finish. Look for this total to fly over before the final whistle sounds. The play is the over.

Braves (Fried, 1-1) vs Astros (Urquidy)

It is Fried vs Urquidy after an unexpectedly bullpen-centric World Series game one. Max Fried was dominant in the regular season, especially coming down the stretch. He had 2 very good 6 inning starts in the postseason, but the third was not a charm as the Dodgers finally got to him. He allowed 5 runs over 4.2 innings. Fried, if he is on, can give the Braves what they need, a long successful outing. He is a very good lefty and the Astros are not quite the same team vs. left-handed pitchers.

Urquidy has started 1 game in the post season, lasting just 1.2 innings and giving up 5 ER. He had a strong regular season, marred by a long turn on the IL, and has been uneven since his return. Urquidy is capable of throwing a strong outing today but it is less likely than Fried’s chances.

Both bullpens pitched very well in game one, but having to cover so many innings is far less than ideal. Should these starters falter, both teams will struggle to cover the extra innings today. Atlanta’s batters are on a tear, and appear at the moment quite capable of matching the Astro’s fire power. The Astros are formidable at home but the Braves are a very good road team.

It is a hard call on the total today; just too many variables are out there. I like Fried’s chances of delivering far more than Urquidy’s. I know the Astros will be desperate for a home win, but Atlanta’s chances are also dependent on Fried’s success now that Charlie Morton is out for the duration. Take the Braves, a small underdog, to win today.

Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic

The Hornets have been pretty good in the early going. They're 3-1. That includes going 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread on the road.

The Magic have been pretty much garbage to open, as they're just 1-3. That includes going 0-1 SU/ATS at home.

Off a tough 140-129 OT home loss to Boston, a game that they led most of the way, I expect this young and talented Hornets team to take out its frustrations on this young and rebuilding Magic side.

Orlando was most recently torched 107-90 at Miami on Monday.

A game at home is not what the doctor ordered either to get back on track for the Magic, who are a putrid 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten at home (also a disturbing 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog.) 

The Hornets on the other hand are 38-12-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs a team with a winning percentage below .400.

Everything is in place for a lop-sided road destruction for the Hornets. The play is Charlotte.

Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.77) vs. Astros (Valdez, 1-0, 4.20)

The Braves, the national league’s unexpected champs, start Charlie Morton against the powerhouse Astros. Morton has started three games in the postseason, and while he hasn’t been overpowering, he has kept the score down. He is well rested and a very experienced post-season starter, and if he is on his game, capable of pitching for length. His opponent is Framber Valdez, who will be remembered for his 8 inning 3 hit, 1 ER outing that broke the backs of the Red Sox. But let’s not forget the previous 2 post season starts that were not pretty, allowing 6 runs over 7+ innings. So, which Valdez shows up on Tuesday? If Valdez can get out of the second inning he also could go pitch late into the game.

The Astros’ bullpen has much better than usual with an ERA of 2.63/L7, although it has been relied upon heavily. The Braves bullpen has not been as sharp, although their starters fared much better than the Astros starters to date. Both bullpens should be adequately rested.

The Braves are a good road team, and solid vs lefties, but were very poor in interleague games this year. The Astros were dominant at home and vs. right-handers in the regular season. Looking at the batting stats for the postseason, there are a whole lot of Astros high in the list.  The Braves are no slouches for offense and have some hot hitters right now.  I like the total on Tuesday, in particular the early one.  I can't see the offenses being completely shutdown early.  Take the total to go over in the first five innings.

Flames/Devils

The Flames, off a big win last night, are on the road again against the Devils, in back to back games.  They were 4-6 in back to backs hast season, and have backup goaltender Vladar in the net. Vladar has blayed one game this season, and has an .880 save %. The Flames have won 3 straight and are injury free at the moment.

The Devils are rested but not injury free at the moment, missing a pair of goaltenders and a pair of forwards, including Jack Hughes. They are running out a third string goalie tonight. Wedgewood is 0-1 with an .852 save%.

These are not high scoring teams although Calgary did notch 6 last night vs. the Rangers. The Devils’ defense has shown improvement this year, but without regular goaltending the total seems like the best bet. Shop around and take the total to go over.

The 3-2 Saints meet up with the 2-4 Seahawks in Seattle in the wind and the rain. The Saints offense has modest passing yards and good rushing stats, but they are a big bang for the buck in the scoring department. So far this season they have been exceptional in the red zone. Quarterback Jameis Winston is 5th in the league in QB ratings with 12 TDs against 3 interceptions. His passing yards have increased dramatically each week in his last 4 starts, from 111 yards to 279 yds in their last game.

Where the Saints excel is on defense, especially against the run (3.3 yds avg, 79 yds/ game). While they may not have much of a pass rush, they defend well against the pass and in the red zone, and have 9 interceptions already.

The Seahawks, ARW have Geno Smith at QB for the next weeks, a considerable step down. Without the mobility of Wilson, Smith was sacked 5 times behind a suspect Seahawks offensive line. The Seahawks have allowed a total of 18 sacks this season already. Smith was 15 of 18 last week with a turnover, but passing yards avg. was only 3.25 yards

The Seahawks defense struggles against the run. Given the conditions on Monday night, a running game may be paramount. Collins ran for 101 yds last week, but overall the Saints have the edge, defensively and offensively. Collins is either playing injured or out at this point, so it could be Saints running back Kamara who steps out.

I like the well-rested Saints in this game. Shop around and take New Orleans to win and cover.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers

I think the Bucks'll dig deep and find a way to win this game in Indiana on Monday night.

Milwaukee is 2-1 so far this year and I expect it to build off its impressive 121-111 road win in San Antonio on Saturday. 

The Pacers are just 1-2. They're coming off a hard-fought 102-91 OT win over the Heat.

The Pacers have been getting good play from guard Malcolm Brogdon, who is averaging 24.7 points, 8.7 boards, 7.7 assists, 1.3 blocks and 0.7 steals this year.

Indiana though has been terrible defensively in the early going (conceding 116.3 PPG), and I think it'll struggle to contain Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Pacers are alos just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a win of ten or more points, while Milwaukee is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six as a favorite.

But for this pick, we're throwing the spread out the window and taking the Bucks on the moneyline.

And that's the pick here, Milwaukee on the moneyline.

Coyotes/Panthers

The Panthers are 5-0 and at home. They have a goals for/against rate of 24/8. With the 0-5 Coyotes you can roughly reverse that stat. Bobrovski is playing like a champ at 4-0, .942. Hutton has started two games and has a save % of around .700! The only area that Florida has struggled is on the power play. That may change tonight as the Coyotes’ PK is shockingly poor. My only concern is that the Panthers take this game seriously.

Take the Panthers to win - 1.5.

Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers

The Grizzlies are off a relatively simple 120-114 road win here over the Clippers just last night and I expect them to keep the momentum rolling here. If this were the end of the season, I'd likely avoid playing on a team in the second game of a back-to-back, but in this case, I don't expect fatigue to be an issue whatsoever.

Instead, I think Ja Morant and the opportunistic Grizz are to send a statement by beating both LA teams on two straight night's in their own building. 

Morant had 28 points in last night's win, while De'Anthony Melton added 22 points on nine of 16 shooting.

The Lakers have issues. They're 0-2, most recently falling 115-105 at home to the Suns. LA shot just 39 percent from the field in the setback. 

LA is also 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. 

I expect this one to come right down to the wire. As such, grab the points and the Grizzlies.

Colts/49ers

The Colts are on an upward trend, thumping the Texans in week 6 and winning two of three games. Carson Wentz, recovered from ankle sprains, passed for 625 yards and 4 TDs in the last two games and has allowed one interception in 6 games. He has been extremely poised considering the pressure he has faced behind the Colts’ struggling offensive line, and is turning into a big play machine. RB Jonathon Taylor is turning heads with his recent play, and rushed for 145 yds against the Texans. The 49ers are average against the rush and the game is expected to be played in the mud so watch for another big game from Taylor.

The Colts defense is strong against the run and good at creating turnovers, but they do not excel in defense against the pass, nor do they apply a lot of pressure on the passer. They face Garoppolo, who is returning from injury and has mobility issues. It would not be unfair to say Garoppolo has struggled in his last two games played. His completion rate is down, yards per attempt down. He has passed for 3 touchdowns in 2 games, and has two interceptions. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, and in the bottom third of the NFL. They have had a bye week to sort out this side of the offense and the run will be important if field conditions are what is expected. They are 8th rated against the pass this year.

I see the Colts and as the team with momentum. I like Wentz’s ability to handle pressure and control the game. The running game will be important on Sunday, and Indianapolis has a real edge there. Take the Colts to cover if not win.

Detroit Lions @ LA Rams

Not only am I expecting the Rams to win today, I'm expecting them to win in absolute blowout fashion.

In a contest which I envision being completely lop-sided in nature, I'm going to suggest laying the points with confidence in what I predict will be an absolute ATS blood-bath!

The Lions are terrible. They're 0-6 and off a 34-11 home loss to the Bengals. QB Jared Goff was just 28 of 42 for 202 yards and an interception. Jamal Williams has been a bright spot for Detroit offensively, so far he has 255 yards on 69 rushes. Defensively though the Lions are horrible as well, entering allowing 28.7 PPG.

The Rams are conceding 21.2. LA QB Matt Stafford will be out to bury his former team today. Keep your eyes on Cooper Kupp, who already has 635 receiving yards this year for the Rams.

LA is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, while Detroit is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road underdog.

I expect LA to have no mercy here as it keeps the pedal to the metal until the final whistle. The play is LA.

Panthers/Giants

Losers of three straight, the Panthers take on the 1-5 Giants on the road. The Panthers are still missing McCaffrey and it shows. Darnold was poor last week again, completing only 17 of 41 passes with one interception. On a positive note he did finish with a very fine drive to tie the game up.

The Panthers haven’t run much since the loss of CMC, but with a sputtering pass-focused offense, this is expected to change. This would be a fine time to step it up as the Giants struggle against the run.

The Carolina defense was uncharacteristically poor in week 6 allowing 4 TDs and giving up monster yardage. Let us hope that this is not the new norm. To date they are first in pass rush and have 16 sacks.

A strong pass rush is bad news for the Giants, as their wounded offensive line has been brutal. If Darnold was poor, then Jones was worse, with 3 interceptions and a fumble. The Giants to date have an indifferent running attack.

The Giants 25th rated defense showed itself, giving up four touchdowns as well, but this is not unexpected. They are very poor against pass as well as the run.

What to expect in this matchup? Look for a better performance from the Panthers’ defense for one thing. With the amount of pressure that Carolina can bring, look for Jones to struggle again. I expect a better game form Darnold, with more protection. Take the Panthers to win and cover.

Braves (Anderson, 1-0) vs Dodgers (Buehler, 0-1)

The Dodgers dodged a bullet in game 5 in a big way with a terrific performance from their bullpen. Today it is Buehler rather than Scherzer on the mound, and he is pitching on short rest. It is unlikely that his start will be of length today; his last two were only around 4 innings. Buehler has thrown well over 200 innings this year, and has not been as overpowering in the late season or in the post season as we have come to expect.

The Dodgers got to Atlanta’s last starter, Fried. Can they do the same against Anderson? Anderson shut out the Brewers in the post season, but allowed 2 ER on three innings against the Dodgers in his last start. He is prone to poor first innings before settling into a game. He has been a much more successful pitcher at home.

The Dodgers’ pen has performed well but the Braves have seen a lot of them. This game will likely be a similar situation. I wonder how long a tired bullpen can keep pulling rabbits out of the hat? The Braves’ bullpen is much better rested if not as highly rated. Both teams are very good against right handed pitching.

The Braves are no doubt wondering if they are faced with a repeat of their previous post season meeting with the Dodgers. I am going out on a limb and saying it is not going to happen. Take the Braves +1 1/2

Panthers/Flyers

The High-flying Panthers are on the road vs the Flyers. Panthers are 4-0 and have knocked off some big-ticket teams so far. The Flyers have wins against the Bruins and the Kraken. The Flyers are leading the league in goals scored with balanced offense across the lines. Their PP has been clipping along at a great but unsustainable 42% rate. Their defense has not been as good. They are 17th in the league and will likely be missing Ellis for Saturday’s game. And which Hart will show up? He looked dismal in his first start but turned things around in his second game.

The Panthers are a well-coached team, strong on offense and defense, and destined for a playoff run this year. They are scoring at a 4.5 goals per game rate, and while their power play has not quite woken up, their PK has been terrific. They have only allowed 1.8 goals per game so far. Their young goalie of the future starts on Saturday. Knight was very sharp, stopping 30 of 31 shots in his first start.

The Panther will break their unbeaten winning streak, but I don’t think it will be tonight against the Flyers. Take the Panthers to win.

Clemson @ Pittsburgh

I like Pittsburgh to keep the foot on the gas in this one. Clemson is 4-2 and 3-1 in the ACC, most recently coming off a tight 17-14 win against Syracuse, unable to cover the large spread.

The Panthers are 5-1 and 2-0 in conference. They most recently beat Virginia Tech 28-7. 

DJ Uiagalelei passed for 181 yards and one touchdown in Clemson's win last weekend, but he now faces one of the best defenses he's ever played against.

Pittsburgh has conceded just 35 points in its past three games and it hasn’t allowed more than 100 yards rushing in those contests. 

The Panthers are also 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Conference, while the Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road dog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range.

I think Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is the difference-maker in the end.

Lay the points, the play is on Pittsburgh.

LSU @ Ole Miss 

LSU is 4-3. It's offense has played well and it's defense hasn't. QB Max Johnson has stepped up under center with 1863 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.

That offense has been forced to play well for the Tigers to stay competitive though each week, as the defense is allowing 28.7 PPG. 

Ole Miss is on a misson to win the SEC and it'll look to take advntage of this suspect Tigers' offense. The Running Rebels average 43.7 PPG. QB Matt Corral has 1728 passing yards and 14 touchdowns while also leading the Rebels in rushing with 450 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.

The one down fall for Ole Miss? Like its counterpart today, it's on the defensive side of the ball where the Rebels are conceding 30.2 PPG.

Look for these offenses to pile on the points quickly. This number is low, the play is the over.

Cinci @ Navy

Now 6-0 including a huge win against the Irish at South Bend, the Bearcats are looking like one of the best teams in the nation yet again this year. With 16 total TDs and only 2 INTs, QB Desmond Ridder is definitely in the MVP conversation. He's looking to build on that against a struggling Navy squad.

To be completely honest, the Midshipmen have been awful. With a 1-5 record on the season, they are a miserable 1-10 in their last 11 games dating back to last season. Let's not forget in the last meeting against Cinci, Navy failed to even get on the board in the 42-0 loss (2018.)

Expect the #2 team in the country to absolutely destroy this weak Navy team. The line might scare people off, but it won't be enough, I guarantee it. Take Cinci

Oilers vs Golden Knights:

The red-hot Oilers face the subdued Golden Knights in Las Vegas on Friday. The Oilers are 3-0, on the backs of their dynamic duo, and scoring more than 4 goals a game so far. Goalie Mike Smith is out and the Oilers have been allowing a ton of shots on net. Their backup, Koskinen, has not played very much this season, and the Oilers have back to back games, so the goalie issue is up in flux.

Vegas is 1-2, off a loss, and not performing as expected. Missing two key offense components, Pacioretty and Stone, to injuries already, they have not been scoring. They have not been defending either, allowing a 25th in the league average of 4 goals a game. Neither Golden Knights goalie has started well.

There is little doubt that the Oilers will score, but unless they play a better brand of defense, there is little doubt they will be scored upon. I like the total in this situation. Take the Oilers and Knights to go over the total.

Red Sox (Eovaldi, 2-0) vs Astros (Garcia, 0-1)

The Red Sox face elimination and have Eovaldi, their only successful starter, on the mound. Eovaldi has already started three games in the postseason, winning two of them. He was not quite as dominant in the start vs. the Astros, and was then called upon to pitch a very unwise bullpen 2/3 of an inning and was shelled for 4 ER. How this will impact on his start on Friday remains to be seen, but he will be pitching on 3 days rest twice.

Luis Garcia has started 2 games, lasted 3 2/3 innings and has an ERA well into the 20’s. He was also roughed up in his last regular season start. He has a history of inflated ERA in the first innings, but is a much better pitcher at home. The Astros are no doubt hoping for a turnaround similar to Valdez’s in the previous game, but it is less likely.

Valdez’s stellar start gave the Astros pen a solid day of rest, while the Red Sox used five relievers. The Red Sox pen has a collective ERA of 6.25 in their last 7 games, and has been relied on for over 4 innings of relief per game. The Astros bullpen is better at 4.08 ERA/7 games.

Both teams obviously have the ability to score runs in a hurry. The Red Sox, in the regular season, were not a terrific road team. Both teams hit right-handers very well.

I am doubtful of Garcia’s success today and can’t see Eovaldi lasting, Take the Sox/Astros total today to go over.

Broncos/Browns

The Browns have a slew of injuries, including QB, a pair of running backs, and key pieces in the offensive line. When your leaders in passing, rushing and TDs are all out, the offense is in trouble. Not to mention a short week for Keenum to put things together. They are still 3 point favorites. Which doesn’t say much for the 3-3 Broncos, off three straight losses.

Bridgewater will start for the Broncos, but he is limping as well. He was sacked five times, and was hit well in the double figures last game. While he threw for three touchdowns, he also had three interceptions.

The highly touted Browns defense has stumbled badly two games in a row. Two stats to note; the Browns are 29th in the NFL in takeaways, and they are only averaging 2 sacks per game in their last two starts. The Broncos defense is rated at 9th which may be generous. They have been solid against the run. The Browns defense is reasonably intact, and may show up after two poor games. With an injury-weakened offensive line and a reserve quarterback, the Browns may not be putting up many points. Give Keenum at least the first half to find his feet. Take this game to go under the total in the first half.

Braves (Fried, 1-0, 1.50) vs. Dodgers.

Today’s play is an action play.  Will it be third time lucky for Max Fried today? No one has been better than Fried lately. He has handled the Brewers and Dodgers successfully already and is operating on 5 days rest. He was 3-0 with an ERA of 1.90 in his last 7 regular season starts. Fried is a lefty which is an advantage when facing the Dodgers lineup. In fact, the Braves starter lineup is in good shape for its next trio of starts should they be necessary.

The same cannot be said for the Dodgers. It is likely Knebel will start, but another bullpen day is in store. Knebel was solid in the regular season, but struggled against the Braves in two relief appearances. A bullpen day would not be such a concern had the Dodgers pen not been so heavily used of late, to the tune of more than 5 innings per game. It is unclear who will make up the bulk of today’s innings, and the over-usage and overexposure of the Dodgers’ relievers plays into the Braves’ hands.

I am sure the Dodgers 2020 comeback is fixed in the Braves players’ minds. They will look to finish the series today, even knowing they have several chances. Today is their best opportunity to finish the Dodgers. The Braves team, peaking late in the series seem composed. Th mighty Dodgers do not. They have lost Turner, who was the Dodgers best hitter vs Fried this year. They are at home and still a favorite, but I am banking on Atlanta to finish this one today. Take the Braves +1 1/2..

Astros (Valdez) vs. Red Sox (Sale)

Can we expect a return to normalcy in Game 5? If this game goes as others in the series have then expect another high scoring affair. Both pitchers are starting on five days’ rest and both have not thrown a lot of innings in the post season. Both are left-handers which should statistically be an advantage. Sale looked better in his second post season start, but was pulled after just 2+ innings. He has struggled vs. right-handers recently, which plays to the Astros’ strength. Valdez was roughed up in both his postseason starts, lasting just a total of 7 innings.

The Astros’ bullpen has been, surprisingly, somewhat better than average. Most of the damage the Red Sox have done has been against starters. The Boston pen is struggling, with an ERA of 4.75 and has been used heavily, more than 5 innings a game on average.

The total has been over in 12 0f 14 of these two teams’ games. Will today be any different? Possibly in the first five innings, but neither of these starters are destined to pitch long, and the offenses are just too potent for a low total.  Take this game to go over.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

These teams put together very different preseasons and I think their performances matter to open the season.

Golden State went 5-0 and LA went 0-6. The Lakers have plenty of talent, but they'll be without the services of Trevor Ariza, Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk, Kendrick Nunn and Talen Horton-Tucker. The Warriors will be without the services of Jonathan Kuminga, Klay Thompson and James Wiseman.

The preseason is not a good indicator of what will transpire in the regular season, but Golden State comes in with confidence and while it may struggle to post an outright upset, I do think this one will get decided in the final moments. 

Because of that, let's grab the points! The play is the Warriors.

Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.34) vs. Dodgers (Buehler, 0-1, 3.38)

Down an unexpected 0-2, today is an absolute must win for the Dodgers. Buehler is back on the mound, with some extra day’s rest. He struggled somewhat in his first post-season start but was better against the Giants in his 2nd short outing. Buehler and Morton met in late August, with Buehler slightly the better pitcher.

Morton finished the regular season strongly allowing 3 runs over 15+ innings in his last three starts. He has not been quite as sharp in the post-season, allowing 4 runs over 9 innings. He too is well rested.

The Braves bullpen has been nothing short of exceptional in this series, which might have come as a surprise to many. The Dodgers pen has been as expected, although they have coughed up a couple of clutch Atlanta runs.

I hate to say it, but the Dodgers have been unlucky in this series. Now back at home where they have been almost unbeatable down the stretch, they are a big favorite to win today. The totals are predictably low. I am looking for the Dodgers’ bats to wake up today, and I believe it will come at the expense of Morton and the Atlanta relievers. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.

Bills vs Titans

Off a blow-out over KC and 4 straight wins, The Bills appear to be more than a match for anyone. The Titans are 3-2, but have some key injuries, and will be banking on powerhouse Derrick Henry and the run again. How the Bills handle Henry will be a key today. They have been very good at controlling the run thus far. Last week aside, Tannehill has been very average, with low touchdown totals. The Titans offensive line has been picked apart, allowing a painful 25 sacks. Not to mention, the Bills have the best defense against the pass in the league.

Jake Allen has been effective and efficient, with talk of MVP thrown around. He has passed for 12 touchdowns, with just 2 interceptions, and has run the ball very successfully. Add to this a balanced running attack, against a Titans defense that has struggled on the ground and in the air.

This game is all Buffalo. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Astros (Urquidy) vs Red Sox (Rodriguez, 0-1)

Will the bats continue to reign in the Astros’ and Red Sox’ game 3? It is Urquidy and Rodriguez on the mound on Monday. Urquidy hasn’t pitched in over two weeks, and didn’t finish the regular season strongly. He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher since shoulder trouble in July and August. He has pitched well in previous post seasons, and held the Red Sox to only 1 run over 6 innings in his only start against them.

Rodriguez improved as the season progressed, finishing the season with an ERA of just over three in his last 7 games. His 2 appearances against the Rays were poor (2 ER over 1.2 innings) then better (2 ER over 5 innings). Houston knocked him around twice in quick succession early in the season. He pitches much better away from Fenway.

The offenses are 1 + 2 in team batting in the post season and the three hottest hitters are all Red Sox. The bullpens have been average in this series; it is mainly the starters who have been knocked around. The Red Sox are very strong vs right-handed starters, the Astros less so vs. lefties.

These are two very good offenses and two starters with question marks beside them. I like the total early. Take this game to go over in the first five innings.

Seattle Seahawks/Pittsburgh Steelers 

For me, this one is simple. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both going to be trying to establish the run game today. The Seahawks especially since QB Russell Wilson went down with injury last week.

Geno Smith has always been a "game manager," and that'll again be the case today as he's thrust into the spotlight in this difficult road venue.

Pittsburgh rookie RB Najee Harris ran for a career-best 122 yards and a TD in last week's 27-19 win over the Broncos and I expect him to have another big day here against this weak Seattle defensvie front. 

The total has gone under in Pittsburgh's last eight games against the NFC and I expect that trend to continue here in the first half on Sunday night. The play is the under in the first half.

Dodgers (Scherzer, 0-1, 1.46 ERA) vs Braves (Anderson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Dodgers’ ace Max Scherzer has already rung up 2 starts and a relief appearance, and we are just into the Divisional finals. Start #3 has him paired up against Ian Anderson who continues his hot run as a starter in the post season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.76 in his career, and pitched five scoreless innings against the Brewers. His regular season was solid and he is a very good home starter.

The Dodgers had a bullpen day and a loss yesterday, used eight pitchers, and will need some innings out of Scherzer. Scherzer shut out the Braves over 6 innings in September. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is his poor final two starts in the regular season. After 3 outings so close together, fatigue could become an issue.

The Dodgers got some hits against Fried but couldn’t do much damage. The Braves were very productive considering their number of hits. The long ball played a role again. The Braves pen which has been very good, held the Dodgers scoreless over 3 innings and will be better rested.

Two questions come to mind. Can Scherzer pitch an effective start with little rest?  Can Anderson handle a potent Dodgers offense as he did with the poor-hitting Brewers?  Anderson struggled against the Dodgers back in June, allowing 4 runs in 4+ innings.

This is a must win for the Dodgers, and they will be loaded for bear. I think that they will get to the Braves’ pitchers, if not against Anderson, then when facing the bullpen. I’m not convinced that Scherzer will go long or be completely overpowering today. Take the Braves/Dodgers total to go under.

Cowboys vs Patriots

The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and 5-0 against the spread. Are the Cowboys, finally, the real thing? Dak Prescott has the Dallas offense purring along with a fine balance between pass and run. 2nd in points scored, the Cowboys have out scored the Patriots by an almost 2 to 1 margin. The Cowboys are out-rushing the Patriots by more than a 2-1 margin, and while the Patriots’ overall defense has been steady, they are only 15th in defense against the run. Dallas is far superior with success in the red zone.

New England, in victory, did not impress in Week 5. The Patriots just haven’t scored a lot of points this season. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is inexperienced but improving, but with only 5 TDs so far. And while the Patriots have allowed 5 fewer points per game this season, Cowboys’ maligned defense has thrived is in creating turnovers. Diggs has more than an interception a game. Jones and the Patriots have been very poor at hanging on to the ball. This could be a significant factor in week 6.

The Cowboys opened at -3 ½ . The line is climbing, and for good reason. Jump on this game early and take the Cowboys to cover.

Vikings vs Panthers

Off a pair of losses, the Panthers need a win here. The big bad news for the Panthers is that McCaffrey is not, as was expected, back for the Panthers. This impacts the running game, but it also limits QB Darnold. There is no easy out from the exceptional pressure he has faced this season. The Panthers’ offensive line has not been effective. Darnold had a very poor game in week 5, but it is hard to compete with your butt on the turf. He’s had 5 turnovers in the last two games and has been sacked 14 times this season. Without McCaffrey, the Panthers offense is really sputtering. A telling stat; Carolina is only converting 38% of third down situations.

As much as the Panthers need a win, The Vikings need a road victory in week 6 for any chance of a successful season. The big good news for QB Cousins and the Vikings is that RB Dalvin Cook is returning. From a low point against the Browns and just 7 points scored, Cousins has been on something of a rebound. But will we still see the methodical and conservative approach to offense of previous weeks? Likely so..

Two very strong defenses will put their mark on this game. Both defenses have been very successful in limiting passing and rushing this season. The Vikings defense are third in the league in sacks and the Panthers just 1 back at 16. The Panthers excel at applying quick pressure on the passer. Both defenses are very good in limiting third down conversions.

This match up does not look conducive to a high points total. Take the Vikings and Panthers to go under the total.

Dodgers (Knebel 0-0, ) vs. Braves (Fried, 1-0, 0.00)

Game 1 in the NL championship series matches Max Fried vs. all comers. Fried has shone this year, especially late in the season and in his magnificent start vs. the Brewers. If anyone can pitch for length vs. the Dodgers, it is he. Knebel is the named starter for the Dodgers, but it will likely be a bullpen game today. Knebel is not unfamiliar with the opener role, and was successful in it in the Dodgers’ last series. He has been highly effective as an opener/reliever this season.

A bullpen day might be alarming for any team but the Dodgers. Relievers collectively have had an ERA of 1.86 in their last 7 games. The Braves pen has also been effective, however they were facing a weak-hitting Brewers team rather than the Giants.

The Dodgers had their moment of offense vs the Giants. The Braves were stymied for the most part by the Brewers’ fine starters, but can score some runs, especially with the long ball.

I like the total in this game, and the best odds are for the first half. The Dodgers have enough options to prevent the game from getting out of hand, and Fried is as good a bet for a low total as there is. Take this game to go under in the first five.

Army @ Wisconsin

Army is 4-1 after losing to Ball State on the road by 12 points. I think the Black Knights can bounce back here though. Wisconsin enters at 2-3 after beating Illinois by 24 on the road.

But despite stumbling last week, Army still averages 34.4 PPG. QB Christian Anderson has 431 rushing yrds and five touchdowns. 

The Badgers are coming off a shutout, but note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS road shutout victory in which they scored 21 or more points in. QB Graham Mertz has 781 passing yards, but only two passing TD's.

Wisconsin is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Black Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring less than 20 points in their last game.

The Badgers only average 19.6 PPG, while Army averages 20.8. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin pulling away.

Grab the points, the play is Army.

Liberty @ UL Monroe

This is a complete mismatch no matter how you look at it.

Liberty comes into this game with only the one loss (5-1) against Syracuse, but they are 17-2 in thier last 19 games dating back to last season.

Louisiana Monroe is only 2-6 in their last 6 games played at home.

The Flames have limited opponents to only 164.5 passing yards per game, while UL Monroe has given up 466 total yards per game.

Take Liberty and expect it to be one of the biggest blowouts of the day

Red Sox (Eovaldi, 1-0) vs. Astros (Garcia, 0-0)

The Astros are in trouble as far as starting pitching goes. Valdez was knocked out early on Friday. Their ace McCullers is injured. Garcia struggled against the White Socks, lasting only 2+ innings, and giving up 5 runs. He was 1-2 in September, although he is better at home. Can Garcia step up?

He will likely need to, as Eovaldi is the Red Sox’ hottest and most consistent pitcher. He has 2 very strong starts already with an ERA of 2.61 over 10+ innings. He has been a top performer in previous post season play. The Red Sox bullpen was very effective in the Rays series, although it was used at an unsustainable rate. Houston’s pen has struggled of late.

The Astros squandered opportunities against Sale in the early going on Friday. They cannot make the same mistakes in game 2. Both offenses are very good when facing right-handers. The Astros are a good home team, the Sox only fair on the road, but need  an away win if they are to take the series.

This is a must win game for Boston today. Look for Eovaldi to pitch for length and hold back the Astros’ bats. The Astros pen was used heavily yesterday, and I can’t see Garcia lasting long. Take the Red Sox to win outright.

Toledo @ Central Michigan 

Toledo comes into this game 3-3, but they've definitely looked solid. Although they don't habe the greatest record, the Rockets are a perfect 5-0 ATS in thier last 5 games played on the road. They've also absolutely destroyed Central Michigan in the past... 10-1 in thier last 11 games against them.

CMU is also 3-3 but they have gotten blown out by a not so strong LSU team and haven't looked great. The Chippewas come into this one only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against opponents from inside the Mid-American conference.

With Toledo having more talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball and with Central Michigan only 2-4 ATS this season, give me Toledo.

Chelsea vs Brentford

Coming into this game, Chelsea has scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 games. The addition of Romelu Lukaku has made this team nearly unstoppable. After 7 matches, they have eight players with more than 2 points, including three with 4. 

Brentford has looked very solid in their first season in the EPL. With only one defeat, they've proved to everyone that they can compete. In their 7 games, they've scored atleast 2 in 4 of those. 

With both teams scoring a lot, and both looking for a huge boost in confidence, I expect a highly contested, lots of goals scored game here on Saturday. Take the OVER.

Sd St @ Sj St

Have you ever heard the story of David vs. Goliath? In that story, the underdog somehow manages to win against all odds.

That's not going to be the case here today though in my opinion. SDSU is led by RB Greg Bell offensively. So far he has 94 rushes for 520 yards (5.5 yards per carry) with five TD's. 

I can't see SJSU mustering much off an offensive attack against SDSU, which concedes just 16.6 points per contest. 

The Spartans only allow 23.8 PPG, but their strength of schedule has to be questioned. 

This is one of the best offenses that SJSU has seen. And there's no question it's the best defense it's seen.

Look for SDSU to pull away for a comfortable win and cover as this one comes down the stretch. ANNIHILATION on SDSU

Red Sox (Sale) vs Astros (Valdes)

If you look at the stats from the last series, the Sox/Astros matchup will likely be decided by the bats. The Red Sox offense is red hot, and the two teams are 1-2 in the post season in offense. Not so for the pitchers; both teams’ ERAs are over 4.

Sox starter Chris Sale struggled in his first postseason start, lasting only 1 inning, and in his previous regular season start. For such a strong starter, he has been historically poor in post season play. The talk is that “some mechanics adjustments have been made”, but it is hard to know what to expect from Sale today.

Valdes didn’t pitch well in his PS start either, nor his previous regular season start, but is very good at home and in previous post season action.

The Astros are a very good home team, and good vs left-handed pitching. Their relievers struggled in the White Sox series. The Red Sox are not the best road team, are poor as a road underdog and average vs. lefties. That said, it is the post season, and one wonders about the value of stats at the moment.

After their last outings, these two starters are wildcards today. The Astros are a favorite, and totals are about average. The Astros dominated the Red Sox this year in regular season play. I am banking on offense and Sale's inability to bounce back today.  Take the over in the first five innings.

Dodgers (Urias) vs Giants (Webb)

Julio Urias, a 20 game winner is 1-0 for the postseason, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings.. He had a very strong finish to the regular season with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 2.20 in September. He twice faced the Giants in July, allowing 2 runs total over 12+ innings. Urias is tried and tested in postseason play.

For the Giants, Logan Webb allowed no runs over 7.2 innings in the most dominant start of this series. This will certainly be the 24 year old’s biggest game. The Giants have not lost against the Dodgers with Webb on the mound. The question is can Webb repeat. He will likely need to, as the Dodgers have had good success against the Giants’ relievers. Plan B, should Webb falter, would be Gausman, who fared poorly in his start.

Everyone and anyone will be available in relief, so bull pen stats are useless in a game like this one. The Giants are historically good against lefties, but this is not the case in recent weeks. There is no doubt that the Dodgers have outhit the Giants by a considerable margin in this series.

A very low total is available for the first half of the game. Lightning or Webb could strike twice, but the second time around might not go quite so smoothly for these two starters. Take the over in the first five innings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Bucs are off back-to-back wins at the Patriots and over the Dolphins last weekend and I like the defending champs to keep the good times rolling again here.

With ten days off after this before a game at home against Chicago, I expect Tom Brady to take advantage of this suspect Philly secondary.

Jalen Hurts has shown plenty of promise and while he may go on to become the next Donovan McNabb, this is a huge step-up in competition for the rookie QB. I just don't trust Hurts on the national stage against the Super Bowl Champs.

I think this Bucs' defense is underrated as well and I believe it's going to have a big day here against this young Philly offense.

Lay the points and expect a blowout. GUNSLINGER on Tampa.

Canucks vs Oilers

After a rough season last year, the Canucks have made many changes with the expectation of improving the team. Training camp didn’t work out quite as expected. Their two best players were late starts at training camp due to contract issues. Defenseman Harmonic is still a no-show. There will undoubtedly be a settling in period for all the new faces. The Canucks may be very weak in their own zone early, if not for the whole season.

The Oilers still sport two of the top players in the league and managed to beat the Canucks 3-2 in exhibition without McDavid and Draisaitl even in the lineup. The Canucks should be good for a couple of goals, and the Oilers may take the opportunity to run wild in their fans-in-building home opener.

Take this game to go over the total.

Appalachian State @ UL Lafayette

App State enters with fresh legs after its bye last week. Previous to that it defeated Georgia State 45-16. In that victory, the Mountaineers postd 502 yards of total offense, while limiting Georgia State to just 380, while also forcing three turnovers.

Louisiana also enters off its bye week. Previous to that it beat South Alabama 20-18. Somehow the Cajuns pulled off the victory despite allowing 387 yards and being held to just 283 of their own. 

And that's bad news here for this home side in my opinion, as the visitors are conceding just 20 PPG this season. 

The App State offense averages 35.6 PPG, led by Chase Brice, who has 1,360 passing yards with eight touchdowns and three picks.

Louisiana Lafayette averages 28.4 PPG, while allowing 22.8. Levi Lewis has seven touchdowns and just one interception. 

The Cajuns are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home, while App State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 following a bye. 

Let's avoid the spread here though and hammer this one on the moneyline.

Astros (McCullers JR.) vs White Sox (Rodon)

With the season in the balance, the White Sox look to Carlos Rodon for the equalizer. Rodon has been the White Sox’ best pitcher this year, he just hasn’t been able to pitch much in August and September. His quality has not suffered. In 28 total innings over the two months, he had an ERA of under 2.00. In all likelihood, he will not pitch more than 5 innings, and has little post season history.

Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the White Sox over 6+ innings. This makes 3 wins in a row for McCullers over the Sox this year. He has had 4 days rest and was well-rested coming into the postseason. Plan B is Urquidy should Junior falter. McCullers allows a lot of ground balls, so Houston’s superlative infield defense could play a large factor on Tuesday.

Both sides have shown some offensive muscle in this series, but I am not expecting it early in game 4.

The total is set slightly higher due to the end results in the last two games. I like the total early, with Rodon and McCullers likely still in the game. Take the under in the first five innings on Tuesday.

Giants (Wood) vs Dodgers (Scherzer)

After a pummeling in Game 2, the Giants face Max Scherzer on the road. Scherzer has been almost unhittable since joining the Dodgers, with two exceptions; he allowed a run an inning, 10 total, in his last two starts of the regular season. In the wild card game, he lasted but 4 innings but still only gave up 1 run, although he was uncharacteristically wild. There is talk of a delivery issue in his mechanics being “solved”, and Scherzer is the consummate professional, so it is likely he will performwell today.

Alex Wood starts for the Giants today. Confined by the Dodgers, his former team, to relief efforts in the post season last year, he will have something to prove. Since returning from Covid illness, Wood has been lights out, allowing only two runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. His arm should be well rested, and he was extremely effective in the postseason last year.

Obviously these two teams are well matched. Both have very good bullpens, although the Giants’ was uncharacteristically poor in game 2. The Dodgers are a very good home team and have been dominant vs. left-handed pitchers. Home or away hasn’t much mattered to the Giants; they are equally effective in both situations. With Scherzer pitching, the Dodgers are a strong favorite, but is he completely right?

I can't see the Giants, such a formidable team all year, rolling over here, and I am not convinced that Scherzer is completely right.  Take the Giants + 1 1/2 today

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens 

The Colts are not having the season that they had hoped for so far. After losing 3 straight, they finally cracked the winning collumn in last weeks victory over the Dolphins. Indy has now seen 4 of thier last 5 games finish OVER the Total.

For thw Ravens, the've stated 3-1, undefeated since the OT loss in week 1. In last week's win, they scored 17 points themselves in the first half. I expect them to have their foot on the gas again in this one.

With the Colts needing a win and the Ravens looking to put up points right out of the gate, I believe there's no question that this game should be a hugh scoring game right from the start. Take the 1st Half OVER

Milwaukee (Peralta, 10-5, 2.85) vs Atlanta (I. Anderson, 9-5, 3.58)

It has been a low scoring series so far and is likely to continue. We are down to the #3 starters, so there maybe more runs than can be counted on the fingers of one hand on Monday. The Brewers’ Freddie Peralta was an All-star this year and like many All-star pitchers, his second half has not been as successful. Peralta was out with a shoulder injury, and while he has built himself up to good length in his starts, he has really only had 2 fine quality starts since returning. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.70 in September. He does pitch well on the road and did shut out the Braves in May. He pitched well in last year’s post season but did not start a game.

Ian Anderson was memorable in last year’s post season, starting 4 games and finishing with a 0.96 ERA. His numbers this year certainly do not match that.He has had a solid season and is 3-0, but with an ERA of 4.39 in September. These starters will be on a very short hook should things go sideways. Atlanta’s bullpen has been very good, and Milwaukee could bring in either of their reserve starters, as they did in game 1.

Neither team is hitting over .200 average, but I still see potential in the Braves’ bats. The Brewers have been in an offensive funk for some time; perhaps we will see a break out this game. Monday’s totals are very low considering these two starters’ September performances. I am wagering on some runs to be scored in the first half. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.

Buffalo Bills @ KC Chiefs

This is an important game for both teams, but I'd say much more to the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs though enter off a big 42-30 win at Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that they lost two tough games agasint the Ravens and Chargers. 

Buffalo has been exceptional on both sides of the ball. It averages 33.5 PPG, while allowing 11.0, but that's definitely due to the level of competition its faced so far (a 35-0 win over Houston stands out obviously.)

KC's defense has been its weak point to this point. But, I still like KC to dig deep here against a Buffalo side that's just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October.

The Chiefs would have had this game circled on the calendar, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to deliver.

The play is KC.

Astros (Garcia, 11-8, 3.00) vs White Sox (Cease, 13-7, 3.91)

The White Sox are 0-4 in recent play-off games, but the return to GR Field offers some relief. The White Sox have a very good home record this year.  Dylan Cease is on the firing line today. His last three starts were very good, but he has not fared especially well against the Astros this year. He is a much better pitcher at home, and is well-rested.

Astros rookie Luis Garcia was very good against the White Sox when he last faced them. He had a touch of playoff experience last year, and has been solid of late. He is not as strong a pitcher on the road. He too is well rested.

The White Sox’ bullpen struggled late in the season, and did not impress on Friday night. The Astros bullpen has been better of late and solid in the first two postseason games.

The White Sox ended the season hitting very well, but that has not translated to the play-offs so far. The Astros have an over .300 batting avg in the first two games. They are a good road team but are only 1-4 in Chicago this year.

It is really a toss up between the two pitchers today. Much is made of the White Sox’ abilities at home and Houston is now a slight underdog. I look for the two offenses to have some success today; the White Sox’ bats to wake up and the Astros to continue at their torrid pace. Take this game to go over the total.

Giants vs. Cowboys

Daniel Jones and the Giants face the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys in their second straight road game. The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Dallas. Jones is coming off his best game of the season. His pass completion % is up considerably. In Week 4, he threw for 400 yds and 2 TDs. Jones has been turn-over prone, but hasn’t shown it thus far this season. Week 5 may be the game this changes. The Cowboys defense is 2nd in takeaways, and 1st in interceptions.

The Giants aren’t healthy, and struggle against the pass and the run at the best of times. Pitted against a very balanced Cowboys’ offense will likely prove too much for the 1-3 Giants.  Zak Prescott has had a stellar start, in full recovery from his ankle injury in week 5 of last year. This will be a bit of a hallmark game. This season, he has thrown 10 TDs with only 2 interceptions. The Giants lead the league in 1st downs, and have a potent, two pronged running game as well. Dallas is 4-0 ATS this season. Oh, and when you hear about the “improved” Dallas defense, it isn’t THAT much better. They still are 2nd worst in passing yards allowed.

It won’t be a blow out, but look for the Cowboys to cover again against the Giants. Dallas to win -7.

NY Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

We're back in London in Week 5 with the Jets taking on the Falcons.

Many thought the #2 overall pick in the Draft would be a difference maker, but Zach Wilson has been the exact opposite so far. In 4 starts, Wilson only has 925 passing yards with 4TDs thrown while turning the ball over 10 times (8INTs 2Fumbles.) Not only has he been bad, but the team is even worse. Dating back to last season they've only won 3 of thier last 20 games. That's miserable.

Atlanta comes into this one 1-3 as well, but they've definitely shown some promise. Matty Ice has thrown 8TDs with 3INTs so far and the rest of the offense has been decent. Although they are still solid, the Falcons will be missing superstar WR Calvin Ridley in this one. Look for rookie Kyle Pitts and Olamide Zaccheaus to have bigger roles in this one.

Both teams are dealing with injuries and both teams aren't the best. I think this comes down to the two QB's here. Give me experience over an unconfident rookie anyday of the week. Take ATL

Dodgers (Urias, 20-3, 2.96) vs Giants (Gausman, 14-6, 2.81)

Off a loss, the Dodgers start the only 20 game starter in the league this year, Julio Urias. He had a very strong finish to the season with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 2.20 in September. The Dodgers were able to manage his innings to the 5-6 range. He twice faced the Giants in July, allowing 2 runs total over 12+ innings, and is a proven winner in the post-season.

Facing him is Kevin Gausman, who was lights out early in the season but struggled in September with a 4.64 ERA. Gausman started 6 games in September and is approaching 200 innings, so fatigue may have been a factor in the late mini-slump. In his last two starts he appears to have returned to form. Gausman has never started in the post season.

Both bullpens have been sharp of late, although the Dodgers’ relievers allowed 2 runs last night.

The Dodgers have a very potent offense, and I don’t see them being shut out twice in two games. This is essentially a must win, so all stops will be pulled out. The Giants at 28-20 are not as effective vs. left-handed pitching, which could be the difference.

I like Urias and the Dodgers today in what will likely be a very close game. Take the Los Angeles to win outright.

Michigan @ Nebraska

Michigan is going to have a letdown, but it's not going to be this weekend.

The Wolverines are 5-0, most recently coming off a 38-17 victory over Wisconsin.

Nebraska is off a 56-7 win over Northwestern.

The Wolverines won four straight at home though before hitting the road and defeating the Badgers last weekend.

I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace with this high-flying Wolerines offense though that enters averaging 40.2 PPG. QB Cade McNamara has 731 yards passing and five TD's, while RB Blake Corum has 521 rushing yards and seven major scores on the ground.

Michigan allows just 12.8 PPG, while Wisconsin concedes 15.5

Previous to last week's win, the Huskers had lost two straight. Wisconsin averages 32.2 PPG, led by Adrian Martinez who has 1,463 passing yards, six TD's and two INT's. 

Nebraska though is a poor 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Michigan faced the best rush defense in the nation last weekend and still posted over 100 yards. 

Go with the Wolverines here to pull away down the stretch.

Braves (Fried, 14-7, 3.04) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-10, 2.56)

If the first game was anything to go by, runs will be in short supply in this series. It would be hard to see anything different occurring in the 2nd game. Max Fried is on the mound for Atlanta. No one has been better than Fried lately. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.90 in his last 7 starts, and has given up only 1 run in 23 innings in his last three starts. He is a leftie, and Milwaukee is only 20-19 against the left this season.

Woodruff has been very sharp this season, but somewhat less so in September. He should be well rested, starting only 4 games in September and only pitching 4 innings in his last start.

Woodruff has had good success at home this season.

I still like the Braves for offense, but with such strong starters, the under looks very appealing. Milwaukee just hasn’t produced of late. The Braves need a win from one of their 2 key pitchers, so they will be all in on Saturday. Any runs scored will likely come late. As in Thursday’s game, take the total to go under in the first five innings.

Penn State @ Iowa

I'm going to forget about the spread here and just play the home side to win this game straight-up on the money-line.

The Nittany Lions are 5-0 and they'e coming off a 24-0 victorey over Indiana at home last time out. 

Penn State QB Sean Clifford had 178 yards passing, three TD's and an INT. 

But Iowa is now also 5-0 afrer a blowout 51-14 road victory over Maryland. QB Spencer Petras was 21 of 30 for 259 yards and three TD's. 

These teams played last year and the Hawkeyes won on the road by a score of 41-21. While this one could be a little tighter, I do expect another decisive vicory for the Hawkeyes here.

Penn State concedes just 12 PPG. Iowa though allows just 11.6.

Iowa RB Tyler Goodson is going to keep this Nittany Lions defense honest today. I don't think you can underestimate how important home-field is for Iowa this evening.

Really great value here on the home side on the money-line.

Oklahoma vs Texas

OU has started the season 5-0. That adds to their perfect 10-game winning streak dating back to last season. QB and potential heisman winner Spencer Rattler has looked excellent so far. This should be a good test but I think he has it in him. The Sooners are also a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games inside the Big 12.

The Longhorns suffered a huge loss to Arkansas in week 2. Since then, they've won 3 straight to make them 4-1. However in their last game against the TCU, they didn't look the sharpest. QB Thompson was only 12 of 22, passing for 142 yards, a touchdown and an interceptiion. That will definitely not be enough to beat the Sooners this week.

Having said that, I like Oklahoma a lot this week. It should be fun as always, but expect Spencer Rattler and the guys in Red and White to comes out on top here. Take OU ML.

Dodgers (Webb, 11-3, 3.03) vs Giants (Buehler, 3-1, 2.47)

Two of the very best teams face off in probably the most talked about series of the post season. The Dodgers, off their walk-off Wild Card victory, will be buoyed up. The Giants have not been able to let their foot off the gas down the stretch either. Both teams have great recent records.

Walker Buehler starts for the Dodgers. He has not been as sharp as he can be, with a very pedestrian record in September of 2-2, 5.40 ERA in 5 starts. His last two starts showed a return to form. He bombed against SF in September allowing 6 runs over 3 innings, and is not quite as effective on the road. He has a fine history in post season play.

Logan Webb starts for the Giants. While Webb has had a banner year, he has no post-season history and 3 of his last 5 starts have not been of good quality.

The Giants had a significant edge in games between the two rivals this year. The Dodgers offense is peaking, although the loss of Muncey hurts. While both bullpens are very strong, the Giants has been lights out in recent games.

This is a tough call for the a winner. I am looking at the total, especially early. These are two very fine starters, but neither pitcher has been at peak performance in recent starts. While all starters are on a short leash in the post season, the total is set low. Take the total to go over in the first five innings

Braves (Morton, 14-6, 3.34) vs Brewers (Burns, 11-5, 2.43)

Milwaukee clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, and hasn’t impressed since, winning only 4 of their last 15 games. If nothing else they will be well rested. The Brewers have a trio of formidable young starters. Corbin Burns is the first one up. He is 2-0 in September with a 2.42 ERA in 4 starts. Burns is slightly worse starting at home. Burns is capable of and may have to pitch for length. The Brewers have a very good closer but the rest of their bullpen has been pitching to a very poor ERA 0f 6.75 in their last 7 games.

Equally concerning is the Brewers’ serious lack of offense. Never a powerhouse, they have been in the very bottom of the league in runs scored and average in the last weeks.

The Braves peaked at the right time. Their offense has come around, and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are a good road team. Veteran Charlie Morton is on the mound. He has a 2.43 ERA in his last 7 starts, and has allowed only 3 runs in the last 15+ innings. The Braves’ bullpen has been very sharp with an ERA of 2.81 in their last 7 games.

Burns is good enough to control a game on his own, but Charlie Morton has been equally effective of late. The total is low and rightly so. I still think it may be good value. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.

Braves/Brewers: Game 1.

Two solid pitchers, a Brewers team that has seriously underachieved since clinching, and a hot Atlanta squad that has peaked at the right time. Atlanta has a huge advantage in offense & recent bullpen performance, and momentum on their side. Atlanta is a good road team. Morton has been just as hot as Burns lately.  The Brewers are only 5-5 in home games with a similar total. The signs are right for an Atlanta win. Take the Braves, a considerable underdog, to win.

LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Coming off a huge loss against the Cardinals on Sunday, LA looks to rebound against the always dangerous Seahawks. In all honesty, the Rams did not look good at all last week. The offense didn't looked their stringest and the defense seemed not like themselves.

The Seahawks are off a much needed victory against the Niners last week. Wilson didn't put up the most insane numbers, but he got the job done. This is also a revenge game for Seattle as these are the guys that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Look for Metcalf to be hungrier than ever to figure out how to beat Ramsey's seconday. 

With the Seahawks at home in primetime, I think the crowd is going to be the difference in this one. Expect a highly competitive game throughout the entire thing, but for Seattle and the 12th man to come out on top. Take the Seahawks.

Red Sox (Rodriguez, 13-8, 4.72) vs. Rays (McLanahan, 10-6, 3.43)

Off an impressive Wild Card win against the Yankees, Boston now faces a very potent and well-rested Rays team. A pair of lefties are on the mound. Rodriguez has been sharp for Boston in his last starts, but all over the map against the Rays this year, shutting them out over 6 innings in one game, then giving up 6 over 3+ innings five days later. He can struggle in the 4th nd 5th innings.

The youngster McLanahan has had a very successful season, and has a 2.65 ERA in his last 7 starts. He won 2 of 3 against the Red Sox, both wins quite handily. He has pitched in the playoffs last year.

Boston’s bullpen has been good in their last 7 games, but the Rays’ has been better. Boston is not that great on the road nor are they more than effective versus lefties. Rays are superlative at home and better vs. left-handed pitching.

With the Rays it is a little of “anything you can do, I can do better”. Their pitching is leading the league in effectiveness in the last weeks. They are outhitting Boston significantly in the same time period. They have not been giving up many runs of late. I am a little surprised at the odds for this game. I see the Rays as more of a favorite. Take the Rays to win outright.

Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State

Coastal Carolina is averaging 48.2 PP, which ranks second in the natoin. Its strength is its run game which ranks fifth in the nation. 

Arkansas State just gave up over 500 rushing yards in its last game. Arkansas State has scored 67 points over its last two games, but it's conceded 100. 

In fact Arkansas State currently ranks the second-worst in the FBS in allowing 45.6 PPG.

Each team's numbers are a bit skewed because of the level of competition it's faced, but regardless, we have essentially the No. 1 offense in the nation, going up against the worst defense in the country.

This one is going to get ugly fast and I simply don't see Grayson McCall and this stable of CC RB's taking the foot off the gas, even if they have a huge lead.

The Red Wolves are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 or more points in their previous game, while CC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. 

Lay the points, the play is Coastal Carolina.

White Sox (Lynn, 11-6, 2.69) vs. Astros (McCullers Jr. 13-5, 3.16)

Two well-rested division-leaders have their aces on the mound. Lance Lynn has been sharp all year, against just about everyone other than the Astros, a team he has struggled against historically. He lost in his only start vs the Astros this year. He has been terrific in two of his last three starts, the exception being a 6 run in 6 innings effort two starts ago. McCullers Jr. has also been good in his last three starts and has won handily in his two outings against the White Sox. Neither team is renowned for their bullpens; the White Sox’s has struggled in their last games, while the Astros’ pen has been average.

The Astros offense finished the season with a flourish, and has been dominant vs the White Sox this season. They are very good at home and vs. the right. The Sox are not a particularly good road team, and very poor as an underdog. Their record against the top teams is not admirable.

Both starters are top notch, but all other roads lead to an Astros victory. Houston is a modest favorite today, and worth the odds. Houston to win outright.

Cards (Wainwright) vs Dodgers (Scherzer)

Two very fine pitchers, both of a certain age. Scherzer overpowered the Cards in September, with 6 innings of 0 ER, 13 strikeout ball. He has been almost unhittable since joining the Dodgers, with two exceptions; he has allowed a run an inning, 10 total, in his last two starts.

Adam Wainwright, post 40, has had an exemplary season. He is now a finesse and edges kind of guy, and has been very consistent. He too had an off game is his last three. He beat the Dodgers in September, and held them to one run in his first five innings. He was 8-2 on the road this year.

What are we to make of Scherzer’s last two starts, and Wainwright’s wobble? Both pitchers are consummate professionals. It is unlikely that there will be a threepeat in Scherzer’s case. That said, the Dodgers and Cards have very good and deep bullpens should either struggle. In a sudden-death game, no one is immune from the hook, as we saw with Cole and the Yankees.

I am looking at the total in the first half, and banking on both starters to bounce back to regular form. Take this game to go under in the first five innings.

Yankees (Cole, 16-8, 3.23) vs Red Sox (Eovaldi, 11-9, 3.75)

When the game is for all the marbles, you want your ace on the mound. The trouble is Gerrit Cole is not looking like an ace at the moment, and it will be a testament to his abilities if he pitches well on Tuesday. In his last three games, he has given up 15 runs in 17+ innings and he has not been successful at all in Fenway Park. The Yankees do have a very good set of relievers if Cole should falter.

It is the end of the season and starters are worn down. Eovaldi was pushed around by the Yankees, lasting just 2+ innings two starts ago, was average in the start before that, but was sharp his last time out with 6 innings or shutout ball. The Red Sox’ bullpen is sub par at the moment, but for this game, every pitcher will be available. This is of more benefit to the Red Sox than the Yankees.

The Yankees have some key injuries. Three infielders are out, including DJ Lemahieu. They have hit for low average all season, particularly against the right. Other than home-runs, the Red Sox have significantly out-hit the Yankees this season. However a hot Judge and Stanton can balance out the advantage in a hurry.

I am wagering on the total in the first half. I don’t think we can expect a quality start from both of these starters, and both teams can score some big runs in a hurry. Take the total to go over in the first 5 innings.

Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers

Entering this game, the Raiders are 3-0 with significant victories against the Ravens and the Steelers. They also beat the Dolphins in a thriller last week. In each of those games, they scored at least 26 points with an average of 30ppg. The Raiders have also seen the total go OVER in 8 of their last 9 games dating back to last season against AFC opponets.

For the Chargers, they'll come in very confident after beating Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Herbert has looked excellent so far and his top 2 WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have also looked very strong. As long as Ekeler keeps providing with his rushing and catching, the Chargers will definitely score a lot in this one. 

Last year, when these two teams played (twice of course,) both games ended with 57 points. I expect another game with a similar, if not higher number here tonight. Take the OVER. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

I think perhaps one of the biggest public plays of the weekend will be the Tampa Bay Bucs, but I think that Mac Jones and New England will prove to be a tough opponent on Sunday night at home. 

Of course Brady wants to beat his old team badly, but his old team wants to beat him badly as well. Jones has struggled somewhat to begin the season, but he now faces a Bucs' defense which has for the most part struggled to contain teams this year. 

Brady struggled against the Rams aggressive pass rush last weekend and he'll now face a very similar attack here in his old stomping grounds as well. 

Other than the QB position, I say that New England likely has the better defense and special teams units, which makes these teams pretty much even in my books. 

Outright win? Sure, it's definitely possible. But why not grab up all these points?! New England Patriots is the play.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

After the week 1 OT loss to the Raiders, the Ravens have now won two straight and are on a roll. In week two, they shocked Mahomes and the chiefs, and last week Justin Tucker set the new record for longest FG in history.In thier last 13 games against the Broncos, Baltimore is 9-4 ATS.

For the Broncos, they have surprisingly started the season 3-0. Although they are 3-0, they've played some of the worst teams in the league. QB Teddy Bridgewater will need to have the game of his life to keep up with this explosive Ravens O this Sunday.

With Denver having faced no real competition yet, I expect the Ravens to give them a run for thier money here today. Give me Baltimore.

Brewers (Anderson, 4-9, 4.26) vs Dodgers (Buehler, 15-4, 2.49)

In their last game of the season, the Dodgers still can’t take their foot off the gas, and won’t know at game time what their fate will be. Buehler is on the mound, but I can’t see him go any longer than necessary. His September ERA has slipped to 5.40, and he has pitched more than 200 innings this year so fatigue may be a factor. Milwaukee is resting Peralta, and bringing in Anderson after just three days rest. Anderson is just three starts back from the IL, and has been lightly used but I can’t see him lasting long either.

The Dodgers’ bullpen has been slightly worse than usual but still fine. The Brewers’ pen has been sub par of late, as has Milwaukee’s offense. The Brewers are likely in ‘don’t care ‘ mode at the moment . Yesterday’s game was a case in point. Burns lasted only 2 innings, and the Brewers turned the game over to recent pickup Colin Rea to finish.

I like the Dodgers’ chances again today. The LA offense is hitting on all cylinders, the Brewers’ has been struggling. The Dodgers will be looking ahead but the Dodgers must stay focused. Take the Dodgers to win -1.5.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

For one of the few times in Mahomes' career, the Chiefs have lost two straight games. Although two doesn't seem like much, they've been that dominant with him back there that they've never lost three straight with him at QB. KC also brings in a wicked 7-1 record in thier last 8 games against teams in the NFC.

The Eagles haven't been any better than the Chiefs this season. Although they won week 1 with ease, two straight loses bring the, to 1-2 as well. They are brining in an awful 1-5 ATS in thier last 5 games against teams from the AFC. Philly is also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

With Mahomes having never lost 3 straight in his professional career, I don't see that happening here against the struggling Eagles. Expect a huge bounce back performance from him, Travis Kelce, Tyrrek Hill and the entire Chiefs crew here today. Take KC.

Brewers (Burns, 11-4, 2.29) vs Dodgers (Urias, 19-3, 3.01)

Here is a game to savor if you like quality pitching. Corbin Burns faces off against Julio Urias. Both have been very strong in September; Urias, other than a 4 run game in Colorado, perhaps slightly better. Burns is 7-0, 1.64 on the road. Urias, not to be outdone, is 6-1 at home. Both bullpens are very good for the season and of late. Give the Dodgers a slight edge here.

This game comes down to offense and motivation. The Dodgers are still not mathematically out of 1st in their division, and I can’t see them giving up now. Milwaukee has clinched for a while, but has not impressed down the stretch. The Dodgers are 1st in offense in the MLB this week. The Brewers offense sits at 22nd in the last week and is a real issue for any upcoming playoff success. The Dodgers are far better vs. right-handers than Milwaukee is vs. lefties.

I am wagering on the Dodgers, in what should be a close game. LA to win outright.

Florida @ Kentucky

Florida is good, but that loss to Bama could come back to haunt them later in the year. Although being 3-1 this season, the Gators are only 3-4 in thier last 7 games. CB Kaiir Elam will most likely play, but he might be bothered by his knee a bit this game. He's their only guy who's forced an INT this season so far.

Many may consider this Kentucky team a joke, but they are 4-0 for a reason. With wins over Mizzouri and South Carolina, the Wildcats are looking like one of their strongest groups in a long time. Dating back to last year, they've now won 6 straight games.

Florida is definitely the favorites and everyone expects them to blow UK out. But don't underestimate the Wildcats. I expect a close hard/rough game this Saturday. Give me Kentucky.

UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina

After getting dominated in week 1, UL Monroe has won two straight to get back in the bowl hunt. Although they are 2-1, they've been awful on the road. Dating back to last season, the Warhawks are a terrible 0-9 in their last 9 road games. they are also 1-8 in their last 9 games played against teams in their Conference (Sun Belt.)

Coastal Carolina has been near perfect dating back to last season, with only the one loss. After last week's 53-3 win, the Chanticleers are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 home games. I expect QB McCall to have anothe excellent game against this weak opponent.

This is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball and the oddsmakers know it. The spread is big, but it's not big enough. Expect atleast a 40pt win for CCU.

Arkansas @ Georgia 

Off a dominant win against the Texas A&M Aggies last weekend, the Razorbacks sure aren't getting the respect that they deserve yet. Being ranked #8 is a good spot for them. But +19 against a team that's ranked 6 spots ahead of them, C'mon. If you didn't watch last weekend, Arkansas absolutely crushed A&M. 

Georgia has been excellent don't get me wrong, but 19 points is way too much. The Bulldogs are dealing with injuries all over the place too. George Pickens, one of the best WRs in America is out (as we knew,) QB JT Daniels is still dealing with a back injury, big time LB Nolan Smith is probable, but he's been hurt with one of his legs, and big TE Darnaell Washington is Questionable with a foot injury. 

Both teams come in undefeated and only one will stay that way. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Razorbacks pulled this one off, but I'll gladly take them +19. 

Angels (L. Suarez, 7-8, 3.86) vs Mariners (Gonzales, 10-5, 4.00)

Here is a game that really matters. The surprising Mariners can play their way into a wild card spot if they continue their stellar play this weekend. Gonzales has been sharp in his last three starts. Jose Suarez gave up 4 in 5 to the Mariners previously, but has otherwise been solid. Both pitchers will want to go out on a positive note.

The odds for the early total vary widely today. Both teams do well against lefties and both teams can score some runs. Mariners will be intent on winning, and the Angels, well who doesn’t want to be a spoiler. Take the total in the first 5 to go over 3 ½. Better jump on this one.

Houston @ Tulsa

Houston is 3-1 and Tulsa is 1-3. Off a 41-34 win over Arkansas State last week, I think the Golden Hurricane will take a step back here. The Cougars are coming off a 28-20 home win over Navy. Clayton Tune had 257 yards and a TD. Davis Brin had 355 yards, three TD's and a pick in his team's win over the Red Wolves. Houston's only conceding 16.3 PPG this year, while Tualsa is allowing 30.5. The road team has covered in eight of the past nine meetings, so I'm grabbing the points and rolling with Houston in this one.

Phillies (R. Suarez) vs. Marlins (Alcantara, 9-14, 3.09)

Pity Sandy Alcantara. He has thrown over 200 innings, with nearly a strike-out an inning, and a WHIP of 1.07 and he ends up 9-14 for the season. Such are your fortunes when you play for the lightest hitting team in the league. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 2.39 in September, and pitches well at home but seldom wins.

 The Phillies are officially done for the season. It is hard to know how they will react, but I expect Ranger Suarez to continue to come out with guns a’blazing. Suarez has been sensational since switching to starting. All he did was throw a 9 inning shut-out in his last start.

The Phillies are a better hitting team but will their heart be in it on Saturday? Their bullpen has been very poor of late, probably a good reason why they are not moving on.

I like the early total today. I have won with Suarez for many games now, and believe that Alcantara will want to finish the season strongly. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.

A pair of former #1 draft picks aside, my interest in this game is “Are the Bengals for real”. To start with, here is why the Jaguars are not. This is a team that has allowed 300+ passing yard per game and has led the league in turnovers. Outside of the hype, the Jags’ rookie quarterback is only three games into a pro career and it shows. A passing % of 54 and 7 interceptions does not cut it.

In contrast, Joe Burrow has been more than steady with a 70+% pass completion rate, 7 TDs and 4 interceptions. Last week, the Bengals’ offensive line far outperformed the Steelers’. In terms of sacks, it was Bengals 4, Steelers 0.

In week three, the Jags were leading into the third quarter. Lawrence burned one in the end zone and the Jaguars folded. It is rare for the Bengals to be a favorite AND in the limelight of TNF. I am looking for them to rise to the occasion this time. Take the Bengals to win and cover.

Tigers (Skubal,8-12, 4.13) vs Twins (Ryan, 2-1, 2.45)

Neither team is going anywhere, but the pitching matchup is interesting. Skubal has thrown a lot of innings for a young starter, and his innings count seems to have been been limited. It seems a successful tactic as he is 2.07 ERA in September but pitching only 3 or 4 innings a start. He has struggled on the road this year. The Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly good lately, so Skubal’s short outings may not be an issue.

Joe Ryan is only a few games into his career as a starter, but he has impressed. In his last three starts he has given up only 3 runs in 17 innings pitched and has a very lowwhip of 0.59. Detroit has not yet faced Ryan. The Twins bullpen has also been very good in their last 7 games.

Neither team has been much for offense of late. Detroit has lost 2 straight against the Tigers so that might inspire them. I am wagering that not a lot of runs will be scored, especially early. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.

Phillies (Nola, 9-8, 4.64) vs Braves (Fried,13-7, 3.12)

Off a win against the Phillies in the first game of the series, the Braves are not quite safe. Yet. However the Braves have a very sharp lefty, Max Fried, on the mound. Fried has allowed no runs in his last two starts, lasting 9 and 7 innings respectively. He is very successful at home.

Aaron Nola doesn’t pitch for the same length or success, and has allowed 10 runs over 17 innings over three starts. He has struggled on the mound.

The Braves and Phillies are just about even in offense at the moment, although the Phillies are not at their best against lefties. Both teams are hot, making this division a real race to the playoffs. The Braves are not the best road team, but are good as a favorite. The Phillies are 34-41 on the road.

The difference in this game is Max Fried. If he pitches even close to his last two starts the Braves are home free. Take the Braves to win outright.

Diamondbacks (Weaver, 3-6, 4.38) vs Giants (Webb, 10-3, 3.04)

As great a season as the Giants have had, they still haven’t clinched first in their division so they will be up for this game.. Meanwhile, the D-backs are dreaming of ‘22 and tee-times. Luke Weaver starts for Arizona. He is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.15 in September and just 4 starts back from a significant IL stay. He has been poor on the road with a 7.94 ERA this year. Logan Webb has had a good year, but has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, allowing 11 runs in his last 3 games. Fatigued, possibly.

Both bullpens are effective of late, perhaps surprising for the D-backs, but nothing new for the Giants.

The offenses couldn’t be more different. San Francisco, 3rd in the league, has close to double the run output in the last 3 weeks. The Diamondbacks road stats are woeful. The Giants, at home after a day off, are a heavy favorite.

I am wagering on the total today. Weaver’s road record and the Giants offense is a recipe for runs. Webb has given up some runs as well in his last starts. Take today’s total to go over in the first five innings.

Brewers (Woodruff, 9-10, 2.52) vs Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 3.05)

This is a fascinating call. The most overachieving team in the league versus the most underachieving division leader face off for the second series in 2 weeks. The Brewers have Woodruff on the mound. In his last start, he pitched 6 innings of 1 run ball against the Cardinals. In his previous two starts, he was not quite as sharp and has an ERA of 4.00 in September. He is slightly worse for the season at home. He faces Adam Wainwright, off his worst start in months, but who has been nothing less than remarkable this season. Wainwright is 8-5 with an ERA of 2.72 at home.

The Brewers are in the dumpster as far as offense over the last few weeks. They presently sit 26th in the league. They did break out slightly vs the Mets, but there must be real concerns for the Milwaukee bats at this point in the season. The Cardinals are a surprising first in the league in offense, along with their terrific starting pitching and a shut-down bullpen with an ERA of 2.86 in their last 7 games. The Brewers’ pen has been worse than usual at 4.44ERA.

Both pitchers, and especially Wainwright have pitched a ton of innings this year, and we might be seeing some slight signs of fatigue in their latest starts. The total is very low, perhaps too low. Considering the Cards hot bats, and Milwaukee’s sub par bullpen, I’m taking this game to go over the total. Enjoy the ballgame!

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

The bottom line is here, I simply can't see the Eagles keeping pace with Dak Prescott and this high-flying Cowboys offense. Dallas has proven it can compete in a high-scoring shootout, like its Week 1 loss in Tampa, while also grinding out a victory in a defensive affair (like last week's win at the Chargers.) Philadelphia man-handled the Falcons in Week 1, but then it looked terrible in last week's humbling home loss to the 49ers. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home in this series, while Philly is just 2-6 ATS its last eight after an ATS home loss in which it posted 15 or less points in. But, we're going to bypass the spread option here though, and instead take the Cowboys on the MONEY-LINE.

Royals (Kowar, 0-4, 11.45) vs Indians (Quantrill, 7-3, 2.82)

The Indians’ fine young starter, Cal Quantrill is on the mound on Monday. Quantrill has pitched for length and ERA of late, and beat KC in a 1 run, 7+ start just last week. While he might not need much support, Cleveland’s relievers have been most sharp, with an ERA of 1.32 ERA in their last seven games.

The same cannot be said of the Royals’ starter, Jackson Kowar, who has struggled badly in his last three starts, as his ERA would suggest. KC’s bullpen, likely called out early, is only average of late with a 4.42 ERA.

I like Quantrill and the Indians in this game and so do the odds. The big question is are they worth the extra runs. KC has struggled to score runs lately with 6 of their 7 last games going under. The potential for Kowar to give up multiple runs is high. The usually light-hitting Indians have been better of late, and Quantrill has been lights out. For those of us who are adventuresome, lets go out on a limb and take the Indians to win -1.5.

Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers 

Things didn’t look so good for Aaron Rodgers after week 1. But he definitely showed the world that he’s not done yet after last weeks performance against the Lions.  They scored an easy 35 points and definitely could have scored more in the win. This week, Rodgers returns to his hometown and I believe he is bound to do something special yet again.

Off the win against the Eagles, the Niners are now 2-0 to start the year. Last week they didn’t score that much. But they looked strong offensively and could have put up more than they did. In week one they went way OVER the total and I expect another high scoring game.

Both teams are really good offensively and I expect a shootout in this one. Take the OVER.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings

Off a heartbreaking OT loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, the Seahawks fall to 1-1. Despite losing, Russell Wilson has looked dominant in the first two games of the season. Tyler Lockett has been the main target so far, but I expect DK Metcalf to make some noise here today.

Heartbreaking not only can describe the Hawks, but  the Vikings have now seen two devastating losses. Week one against the Bengals in OT, and last week they missed a make-able field goal in the final seconds against the Cards to lose by a point. That takes a lot out of a team and I expect them to get jumped on from the opening kickoff.

With both teams off a loss, this is basically a revenge game to get back on track. But that missed field goal for the Vikings is going to be too hard to come back from this week against a strong Seattle team. Take Seattle

Cardinals (Woodford, 3-3, 3.92) vs. Cubs (Thompson, 3-3, 3.40)

The Cards last lost on September 6. Their pitching is not a surprise but their surprising offense is first in the MLB. All streaks must end, but it is not likely today. Youngster Jake Woodford is on the mound. Since being stretched out as a starter he has had good success, and while his starts are only 4 or 5 innings, his ERA is 3.38 in September. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been very sharp of late, to no-one’s surprise.

Keegan Thompson is on the mound for the Cubs. He has only started a pair of time in each of August and September, and his starts have not lasted more than two innings. In his last 5+ innings, he has given up 7 runs. Thompson’s success aside, allowing the hard hitting Cards 7 innings access to the Cubs’ bullpen is not a recipe for success. The Cub’s relievers are heavily used and have a 7.67 collective ERA in their last 7 games.

The total is tempting today but it is set very high. Take the Cardinals -1.5 today.

Rangers (Dunning,5-9, 4.34) vs Orioles (Means, 6-7, 3.25)

The Rangers have taken 2 in a row against Baltimore, which hasn’t happened for a good long time. Both teams have struggled mightily. The Rangers are 23-56 on the road, and 25-34 vs lefties. The Orioles are an appalling 24-52 at home and 27-63 vs the right. Are there any bright spots? The Rangers pen has been effective in their last seven games. The Orioles are 20th in batting, which doesn’t sound positive except that the Rangers are dead last.

Dane Dunning is starting for only the second time in September. He is very poor on the road and has gone less than 3 innings in his last starts, whether by design or futility. The difference-maker in this game is likely John Means. He has been very sharp in September, giving up just 6 runs in 24 innings in his last four starts. He has also pitched for length, a necessity with the Orioles’ bullpen.

I like the Orioles here. Means should take care of the bulk of the innings and the Rangers’ offense is very weak. Take the Orioles to win outright.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Off a shootout win in week 2 I’m expecting another similar game here. Kyler Murray has looked like he could put up points in his sleep so far this season. The Cards have now scored 34+ in both their first two games.

The Jags defense has looked awful so far. Giving up 37 to the Texans in week 1, and 23 to the Broncos last week. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been the greatest, but I believe that he’s going to show the world that he isn’t a bust quite yet here in this one.

The Cardinals will definitely score, it'll just be a matter if Jacksonville can keep up and I believe Lawrence is up for the task. Take the OVER.

West Virginia @ Oklahoma

The Mountaineers are now 2-1 after a 27-21 win over then No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech. 

The Sooners are off a 23-16 victory over Nebraska as 22.5 point favorites.

So far WVU is averaging 39 PPG, throwing for 271.3 and rushing for 139.7. QB Jarret Doege had 193 yards, two TD's and an INT last week. The Mountaineers have also been good defensively in conceding just 17 PPG.

The Sooners may be 3-0, but I think they'll have a fight on their hands here today. Okalahoma is averaging 45.7 PPG, while allowing 17. Spencer Rattler had 214 yards and a TD in the Sooners victory last week.

Oklahoma though is poor in this spot for bettors (3-8 ATS its last 11 after scorign 40 or more points in its previous game), while WVU has been good (5-1 ATS its last six games played in September.) 

I think the Sooners are susceptible defensively. Grab all these points, the play is West Virginia 10* BIG PLAY

Atlanta (Ynoa, 4-5, 3.43) vs San Diego (Velasquez, 3-8, 6.23)

The struggling Padres picked up Velasquez for some much needed starting help. So far it hasn’t worked. His last start was only three days ago but it only lasted 1 inning. Since joining the Padres, he has given up more than a run an inning in 2 starts. Considering how hard the Padres’ bullpen has been used (5 innings per game over the last 7), we may see more of Velasquez today than would be ideal.

Atlanta rookie Ynoa has delivered short adequate starts in September but his ERA has slipped to 5.12. The Braves’ pen has been lightly used and very effective of late with an ERA of 2.66 in their last seven games.

The Padres’ bats are also struggling, especially in the last week. The Braves, still in line for the play-offs, have been top-three in offense this week. The Braves are a very strong road team, 5-1 in their last 6 games, and good against right-handers. Considering Velasquez’s and the Padres relievers’ struggles, I am wagering on the total in the first half. Watch this game go over the total for the first five innings.