Atlanta (Ynoa, 4-5, 3.43) vs San Diego (Velasquez, 3-8, 6.23)

The struggling Padres picked up Velasquez for some much needed starting help. So far it hasn’t worked. His last start was only three days ago but it only lasted 1 inning. Since joining the Padres, he has given up more than a run an inning in 2 starts. Considering how hard the Padres’ bullpen has been used (5 innings per game over the last 7), we may see more of Velasquez today than would be ideal.

Atlanta rookie Ynoa has delivered short adequate starts in September but his ERA has slipped to 5.12. The Braves’ pen has been lightly used and very effective of late with an ERA of 2.66 in their last seven games.

The Padres’ bats are also struggling, especially in the last week. The Braves, still in line for the play-offs, have been top-three in offense this week. The Braves are a very strong road team, 5-1 in their last 6 games, and good against right-handers. Considering Velasquez’s and the Padres relievers’ struggles, I am wagering on the total in the first half. Watch this game go over the total for the first five innings.

Pirates (Crowe, 4-7, 5.77) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-5, 1.60)

The Phillies are 8-2 and will have to continue that at pace for any playoff hopes. They won against the Pirates on Friday and likely will again with Rangers Suarez on the mound. Lefty, Suarez has been as good as anyone since taking a starting role. He is very sharp at home and has only given up 5 runs in 17 innings in his last three starts. The Phillies’ bull pen, long a problem spot this season, has been sharp of late.

Will Crowe’s last start was solid, but he has an ERA of 8.25 in three starts in September, so that one might have been an anomaly. His outings have been on the short side, and the Pirates’ pen has been heavily worked and below average of late. The Pirates are not a good road team nor do they fair well against left-handers.

The Phillies are 6th in offense at the moment, and solid both at home and vs right-handers. Suarez is the much better pitcher. I like the Phillies in this game and so do the oddsmakers. Take the Phillies -1.5.

Texas Tech @ Texas 

The Longhorns are 2-1, while the Red Raiders are undefeated. 

To say this is a "revenge" game though would be an understatement for the Red Raiders here, as they've lost three in a row in this series, including a 63-56 OT thriller last year. 

Texas Tech hasn't played the stiffest of competition yet, but it's passed all early tests easily. In the most recent win over FIU, QB Tyler Shough had 399 yards passing and four touchdowns. 

Texas is off a 58-0 win over Rice. The previous week the Longhorns loast 40-21 to Arkansas. 

Texas took out its frustrations on Rice and rolled up 620 yards of offense. 

The Longhorns though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after posting a shutout win in their previous outing. 

I think his Red Raiders' offense can hang with Texas late (like last year!) Grab the points 8* SHOWDOWN

Mariners (Gilbert, 6-5, 4.74) vs Angels (Suarez, 7-8, 3.67)

A pair of achieving youngsters are on the mound in the Mariners/ Angels match up. Rookie Logan Gilbert has settled down to be a very strong starter, especially in September. He is 1-0, with an ERA of 2.01 in 4 starts, and has worked his way up to 6 and 7 innings lately. The Angels have had no luck against Gilbert. 23 year old lefty, Jose Suarez is 2-1 in his last three games, giving up 5 runs over his last 20+ innings. The Mariners have hit Suarez well this season.

The Mariners are still in the thick of the wild card race, and have won 5 straight. Their bullpen has been lightly used and effective of late. They are a very good road team and solid vs left-handers.

The Rangers are 1-6, and basically out in the pasture, looking over the fence. Their hitting is in the bottom 10% of the league at the moment, and they struggle against the right. Add to that, an overused and ineffective bullpen (5.67 of late) and you do not have a recipe for success.

I like many aspects in this game but the total in the first half stands out. Take the Under in the first five innings.

Mariners (Gilbert, 6-5, 4.74) vs Angels (Suarez, 7-8, 3.67)

Gilbert and Suarez have been equally viable for their respective teams in September, but hitting and relief are strongly in Seattle’s favor. Add to that, the impetus of a wild card run and 5 straight wins, and it looks a good prospect for a Mariners victory. The Mariners have had success vs. Suarez in past, and are effective against left-handed pitching. The Angels are at the bottom of the pile in offense and their bull pen is over used and ineffective of late.

I am wagering on the Mariners to win outright today.

Liberty @ Syracuse

Liberty will look to keep the momentum rolling here after starting off 3-0 and coming off of a 45-17 victory over Old Dominion last weekend. Look for Malik Willis to have another big day, he was 21 of 28 for 242 yards and four touchdowns.

Syracuse is 2-1 so far and it's off a 62-24 victory over Albany. RB Sean Tucker is the featured offensive player for the Orange, he already has 367 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, while also adding seven catches for 148 yards and another receiving TD.

These have been two decent defenses, but that's been mostly due to the level of competition. Look for this one to fly well over before the final whistle sounds. 10* Play Take OVER

Cardinals (Happ, 9-8, 6.02) vs Cubs (Steele, 3-3, 4.20)

The Cards and Cubs meet up for a double header on Friday. Happ starts the first game for the Cardinals. It looked like Happ had re-found his form in August, finishing the month with a 2.22 ERA. September has been much crueler; he had an 8.22 Era in 4 games. He still delivers 5 innings a game.

Justin Steele has been effective in September, allowing 9 runs over 14 innings. He averages 4 to 5 innings per start. The problem for Steele is that the Cubs’ bullpen has been very poor (6.61 Era in the last 7 games), and short starts won’t win many games in Chicago.

The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and have been scoring a ton of runs. The Cubs have been pretty average in offense and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Basically going through the motions. The Cards are a very good road favorite, and a strong 22-13 vs left-handers.

I like the Cards’ chances here but Happ can give up a lot of runs in a hurry. The total is average for 7 innings. Take the total to go over.

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans 

Off back to back wins to open up the year, the Panthers are now one of the last 7 teams with an undefeated record. Having said that, they are battling some injuries. McCaffrey, who is going to play, is dealing with a minor calf injrury. Youngsters, Yetor Gross Matos and Troy Pride are going to miss this one though.

Off a loss to the Browns, the Texans also saw their QB Tyrod Taylor get hurt. Now, the rookie Davis Mills steps in the starting role and looks to prove himself. They looked very sharp in week 1 and I believe that they'll bounce back in a huge way this week.

Although Carolina is the better team, 8.5 points is a lot, considering Houston is the home team. I'll gladly take the points here.

Marshall @ Appalachian State

Off a tough loss to Eastern Carolina last weekend, Marshall now travels to North Carolina where they'll take on the always dangerous Mountaineers. Although they are 2-1, the Thundering Hurd are 1-2 ATS on the season, 1-4 dating back to last year. They've also lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.

For Appalachian State, they've looked very sharp, despite losing a tough one to Miami. They are now a dominant 19-1 in thier last 20 games played at home. They are aksi 8-1  in their last 9 games against opponents from the Conference USA. 

Having said that, I think Marshall will be very shy/unconfident after that shocking loss last week. Expect the Mountaineers to jump all over that and make them pay. Take App State.

Giants (Webb, 10-3, 2.86) vs Padres (Darvish, 8-10, 4.13)

Two potentially strong pitchers start in the finale of the Giants/Padres series. Yu Darvish has been all over the map; seven innings of shutout ball in his last start, preceded by a four inning bomb allowing 8 runs. It seems Darvish has refound his form but only every other game. This would be his turn to flame out. If only it were that easy to pick them..

Logan Webb has been solid all year, but he did have a poor start two turns ago. Perhaps some fatigue has settled in. He has started 24 games this year and is only 24. His ERA has edged up slightly to 3.63 in his last games. Webb has the support of the Giants bullpen, still sharp even though worked heavily, with an ERA of 3.55. The Padres’ pen has been overworked as well and has struggled with an ERA of 5.75 of late.

The Padres are 2-8, in the bottom third of the league in offense and unlikely to make the play offs. The Giants are in the top two teams in offense, 49-27 on the road, and an astounding 72-33 against right- handers. No matter how Darvish pitches, I still favor the Giants, and the odds are very palatable. Take the Giants to win.

Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 2.89) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.43)

The Cards are the hottest team in baseball, whipped the Brewers on Wednesday, and are 10-0 in their last ten games. And they have their ace Adam Wainwright, the ageless one, on the mound. The only thing that stands in the way of a 4 game sweep of the Brewers is Adrian Houser. His last start was his worst in some time (4 ER over 4 innings), but his two previous were shut-outs of 6 and 9 inning duration. This has the makings of a real pitcher’s duel and, a rarity this late in the season, both teams have very sharp bullpens.

The Cards, modest hitting usually, are punching well above their weight, while Milwaukee is in the doldrums. Their collective batting avg. is below .200 of late, and they have won only 2 of their last 6 games. The Cards are a very good road team, and are on a terrific roll at the moment. They have won their way into wild-card potential.

I like the Cards here, but I like the Total more. Take the total to go under.

Orioles (Akin, 2-10, 6.93) vs Phillies (Wheeler, 14-9, 2.83)

Just 2 games back of the Braves for top spot in their division, the Phillies need to take this series vs Baltimore to stay in the running. Their ace, Zack Wheeler is on the mound on Wednesday. Wheeler had a rough month in August, but it was probably fatigue. He has already pitched 200+ innings and had very long starts. In September, his starts seem to have been limited to around 6 innings and he has returned to form, allowing only 2 runs in three outings.

Keegan Akin has had a dismal season and is worse on the road. He did pitch 6 scoreless innings against the Jays, only to be smacked around in the 7th. Otherwise, his latest starts have been short and poor. Both bullpens have been poor and overused, but the Orioles’ is most likely to have more work with Akin on the mound.

It is hard to find a positive stat for the Orioles. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and 25-52 away. They are 26-51 vs. right-handed pitching. The Phillies’ bats are very solid lately. They can struggle vs lefties but are better lately in this regard. With Wheeler on the mound, they are a huge favorite, but are worth the extra runs in this game. Take the Phillies -1.5.

Astros (Urquidy, 7-3, 3.38) vs Angels (Naughton, 0-2, 4.32)

Astros starter Jose Urquidy seems to have returned from a long stint on the IL unscathed. In is his third start back, he allowed 1 run over 6 innings. This bodes well for the play-off bound Astros.

The Angels are not going to the playoffs and their young starter is hardly a household name. In three starts since a call-up, Packy Naughton has had 1 premium outing sandwiched by a couple of short poor ones. The Astros’ bats are very sharp right now so I don’t fancy his chances. The Angels’ bullpen has been effective lately. Their issue at the moment is scoring runs; they are in the bottom 10% in MLB offense. The Angels have had little luck against Urquidy this season, and are 46-54 against righties.

The Astros offense is ticking over just fine, thank you very much. Their bullpen has been extra sharp of late with an ERA of 1.87 in their last 7 games. The A’s and Mariners are just close enough to keep them honest.

It is no surprise that I favor the Astros or that they are a heavy favorite. Take the extra runs today. Astros to win -1.5.

Detroit @ GB.

Two divisional opponents off Week 1 losses collide in Week 2.

Detroit's offense actually looked quite good in last weeks' 41-33 loss to the 49ers (especially considering the way the 49ers' held the high-flying Eagles to just 11 points on their own field on Sunday after they scored 32 in their Week 1 win at Atlanta.) Jared Goff was 38 of 57 for 338 yards.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers uncharacteristically struggled in their 38-3 season-opening loss at New Orleans (interesting though, that game was played at Jacksonville instead of New Orleans because of Hurricane Ida. Traveling to Jacksonville is tough, but especially on short notice. That was a game that completely favored the Saints. New Orleans looked poor in its loss at Carolina on Sunday.)

Rodgers though is going to benefit greatly from being in friendly confines and facing a poor Lions' defense which just conceded 41 points to San Francisco (which could only muster 19 in yesterday's win at Philadelphia.)

Look for these experienced "gun-slingers" to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the over.

Orioles (Means: 5-7, 3.41) vs Phillies (R.Suarez 6-4, 1.50)

The Orioles have a lamentable record and you don’t need to look further than their pitching for the reason. John Means has been as close as you can find to a starter with acceptable stats, but with a bullpen that struggles to the tune of 8.63/ L7, a winning record is unlikely. Note that Means’ WHIP is a solid 1.00 for the season.

Ranger Suarez is as good as anyone since converting to “starter-dom” and has stretched out to 6 innings per outing. He is a sparkling 5-0 with an ERA of 1.60 at home this season.

Let’s bypass the bullpens and look at the first half today. Neither team has a successful record vs. lefties and both pitchers tend to be strong early. Neither team has experience vs. the opposing pitcher.

While the total is low for the first half, I think it is a safe bet today. Take the under in the first 5 innings.

KC (Singer, 4-10, 4.85) vs Indians (McKenzie, 5-6, 4.28)

Cleveland is riding a high, having thumped the Yankees twice in three games, and has a very good young starter vs. KC on Monday. Triston McKenzie took a while to find his form, but he has been outstanding since the end of July. His last thee starts have been in triplicate; 1 run in 6 innings x 3. Two of KC”s starter Brady Singer’s last three starts have been of quality but the last one was a real pumpkin. He has been very uneven, and is poor on the road. The Royals are a miserable 8-17 with him on the mound.

As to the relievers, the Royals’ have been solid, if overused. Cleveland’s bullpen has been worse than usual, although lightly used. This being the first game of a double header, the bullpens may not come into play quite as much.

The Indians are a reasonable home team and 45-45 vs right-handers. They are a very positive 39-23 when favored, as they are on Monday. They are also punching well above their weight in the last two weeks, as noted against the Yankees.

The Royals are also very solid lately in offense, are 36-38 on the road, but 41-59 vs. right-handers.

I’m wagering on Cleveland. McKenzie can outright pitch, and has good length in his starts. Singer is a wild card, and not in the “play-off” sense. Take the Indians to win outright.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

The Chiefs are 1-0 after coming from behind to knock off the Browns 33-29 at home in Week 1. The Browns had a half time lead and a ten-point lead going into the fourth-quarter, but Patrick Mahomes took over and KC now comes to Baltimore sitting at 1-0.

The Ravens on the other hand looked bad in their 33-27 OT loss at Las Vegas, giving up a huge lead late to lose in extra time.

These teams are loaded with offensive talent. Each struggled defensively in Week 1. Despite being on the road though, I say this one favors KC. The Ravens are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss, while KC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after having 350-plus yards of offense in its previous outing.

I think Baltimore continues to struggle. Lay the points. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Bucs

Both teams have veteran quarterbacks. That's where the similarities stop. The Buccaneers are stacked. The Falcons are not. Tampa scored 31 against Dallas. Atlanta allowed 32 against Philadelphia. 

The Buccaneers limited Elliott and the Dallas running game in the opener. They're 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were off a game where they allowed 90 or fewer rushing yards. 

The Super Bowl champs play with some extra rest, due to their game having been played on a Thursday. The Falcons fell to 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight September games. Last meeting was a 17-point Tampa win. Take the Bucs

Braves (Fried, 11-7, 3.47) vs Giants (Desclafani, 12-6, 3.24)

At 8-2 and 2-0 against the Braves in this series, the Giants are at peak performance right now. And yet they still don’t have any breathing room over the Dodgers. The Braves have lost 4 straight, which has really tightened up the race in the NL East. The Giants look to Anthony Desclafani for the sweep. After a bit of a rough patch in August, he has given up only 4 runs in three games in September. The Giants have given him a ton of support this year with a 19-9 team record when Desclafani is on the mound.

Max Fried starts for the Braves, and if anyone can get them back on track it is he. Fried has been rock steady, pitching 6+ innings a start, and giving up less than 3 runs a game.

Atlanta’s bullpen, middle of the road usually, has been very good with a 1.65 ERA /Last 7 games. The Giants’ pen has been its usual solid entity, but has been heavily used of late, at 5.00 innings a game.

The Braves are a good road team, but only 11-16 as a road underdog. They are 53-53 vs. right-handers, and only 8-14 vs. the NL West. The Giants are 48-25 at home, 26-19 vs left-handers, and a very solid 52-24 with a total similar to today’s. And man, are their bats on fire, 2nd in the league at the moment.

Much as I admire Fried, I like the Giants today. Desclafani has been equal in quality starts, and the Giants at the moment have just too much going for them to lose this one. Take the Giants to win outright.

Mariners (Gilbert, 5-5, 4.97) vs Royals (Kowar, 0-3, 11.50)

If the Mariners have any hope to stay in the race they need to take advantage of teams like KC. The trouble is that the Royals aren’t co-operating, taking Saturday’s game 8-0. The Mariners need this game badly, but is Gilbert the one to deliver? He has been up and down this season, but very good in September, lasting 6 innings per start and allowing 2,2,and 0 runs respectively. His long starts are a bonus as Seattle’s bullpen has been pitiful of late (7.62, last 7). KC’s batters have struggled against Gilbert, with the exception of Sal Perez, although everyone has struggled with Sal Perez this season.

Jackson Kowar starts for the Royals. In two sessions with the Royals this season, Kowar has failed to impress. His first start in a September call-up was fine but he has struggled since, allowing 11 runs in 7 innings. The Royals’ relievers are better than usual with an ERA of 3.41/L7, but very overused lately, to the tune of 5+ innings a game.

The Royals hitting has been a plus of late. They are not a particularly good home team, and are poor vs right-handers. Seattle is ok on the road, good vs, right-handers, and very good on Sundays.

The Mariners’ pen worries me, but Kowar has really struggled. After yesterday’s loss, this is a must-win for the Mariners on Sunday and Gilbert has delivered some big outings lately. It may be ugly but take the Mariners to win outright.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Mac Jones has lived up to what he did in college so far. Many thought he was going to be a bust, but the most accurate passer in CFB history definitely looked solid in week 1. If they can generate 393 total yards again, I guarantee that they'll score more than 16 this time.

Despite Zach Wilson looking good in his debut, the Jets lost thier opener against their old QB in Sam Darnold in week 1. Their defense wasn't the strongest as they gave up 381 yards of offense in the loss. Dating back to last season, NYJ has seen the total go OVER in 4 of thier last 6 games against oppoents from the AFC. 

I know both of these teams have rookies starting, but with the two of them off UNDER's to open the season up, I expect a tough fought high scoring battle between these guys today. Ride the OVER.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Off a "roller coaster ride" Monday Nighter in week 1, the Raiders will have to go up against one of the best, if not the best defenses in the league without thier star running back in Josh Jacobs. Vegas hasn't had much success against Pittsburgh either as they are only 1-4 in their last five games played on the road at Heinz Field.

For the Steelers, they made Josh Alllen look human and took it to Buffalo in week 1. That win made them 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the month of September. I expect RB Najee Harris to run right through this Raiders defense that is experiencing a lot of injuries as of late.

Both off wins, both teams will be looking for that 2-0 start. But I believe that this stacked Steelers team will be too much to handle for the Raiders without Jacobs on Sunday. Take PITT.

Arizona State @ BYU

Both teams are in the Top 25. ASU is ranked in 19th, and while it's had to deal with a couple of "cream puffs" to open, it's still outscored the opposition 78-24. 

ASU QB Jayden Daniels had 175 passing yards, two TD's and two INT's in last week's win. 

BYU is off an upset 26-17 win over then No. 21 Utah in its last outing and I say it'll finally take a step back here. The difference in the end was that the Cougars forced two turnovers, while giving up none. I do like Jaylen Hall, who has five TD's and no INT's this year.

But the Sun Devils are now a clear step up in competition on both sides of the ball. ASU's superior offense will be too much for BYU to keep up to in my opinion.

Let's skip the spread, lay the price on the money line here. The play is Arizona State money line.

Padres (Darvish, 8-19, 4.32) vs Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 2.88)

Finally a team has made a concerted run for the last spot in the crowded NL wild card spot, and it is, to many people’s surprise, the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have good starting pitching and in the last month are hitting well above their weight. The same cannot be said about the Padres. At 8-2 in their last 10 games, many of their starters are struggling, their bullpen is overused and ineffective, and their offense has plummeted.

Yu Darvish has not lived up to his reputation in the 2nd half of the season. He is 1-5 in his last 7 games, and a very poor 2-6, 6.33 ERA on the road. Don’t count on the bull pen to bail him out. It has been used at an unsustainable rate, especially lately, and is struggling with a 6.33 ERA.

Adam Wainwright turned 40 this year but still pitches like a Cy Young winner. He show no signs of slowing down, allowing only 5 runs over 20+ innings in his last 3 games. He is a strong 8-5, 2.71 at home. The Cardinals’ pen has been solid of late and their light hitting offense has found a groove.

The Padres are an indifferent road team (32-40), a 10-22 underdog, and arguably the worst hitting team in the MLB in the last month. The Cardinals are 40-33 at home, and very good when a favorite.

I am wagering on the Cards today. Take St. Louis to win outright.

White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.50) vs Rangers (Howard, 0-4, 7.09)

It is out of the MLB frying pan and into the fire for the Rangers, losing 3 of 4 to the Astros, before facing the White Sox in Chicago. The Sox haven’t been their usual first-place selves of late at only 5-5, but they do have Lance Lynn on the mound on Saturday. Lynn missed a start, but came back just as ever, pitching five strong innings of 2 hit shut-out ball. He might be on a shorter leash as innings-count goes. He is backed by a very strong White Sox pen, with a 2.01 ERA in the last three weeks.

Spenser Howard, the Rangers starter, is more of an opener/long relief pitcher, whether by plan or ineffectiveness. He has not had much of a season, as his ERA might suggest, and his outings are very short. It could be a long day for the Texas bullpen. The Rangers relievers are worse than usual in their last 7 games, at a collective 4.81 ERA.

Texas has been light-hitting all season and at the moment, sits 26th in batting in MLB. They are 32 -40 at home and a remarkably poor 30-61 versus right-handers. This does not bode well against Lance Lynn.

The White Sox are a decent road team, good vs right-handers, hitting just about as expected, and a very strong road favorite team.

I like the White Sox in this situation. The are a heavy favorite but I think they are worth the extra runs today. Take the White Sox -1.5.

Arakansas State @ Washington

Off a heartbreaking loss in Week 2 against Memphis, Arkansas St falls to 1-1.  That makes them only 2-6 in their last 8 games dating back to last season. Even worse, they are only 1-7 L8 games played on the road. 

The Huskies have not looked good this season either. It's obvious that they are struggling. But, they've domianted the Sun Belt Conference in the past and I expect that to continue here. They are also 16-4 in their last 20 games played at home. 

While this will be a wet/rainy game in Washington, I believe that the bigger name school will show the country that they aren't the joke everyone thinks they are here. Also, look for TE Cade Otton to have a big game here. Take Washington.

Virginia Tech @ West Virginia

Off back-to-back wins to open up the season, the Hokies now find themselves ranked #15 in the country. Having said that, Tech is only 4-8 ATS in their L12 games played in week 3. 

WVU barely lost in week 1 against Maryland, but bounced back in a huge way last weekend with a dominant 66-0 victory. That makes them now a perfect 6-0 in their last six games at home. 

Although VT might be ranked and the better team in everyone elses opinion, the Mountaineers are absolute killers on their home field. Expect another big performance from them here. Take West Virginia.

Maryland @ Illinois

After upsetting Nebraska out of the gate, it seemed Illinois might be poised for a fast start. The Fighting Illini lost their next two games though. This is a team with a new coach essentially in a rebuilding year. The Illini are 1-5 ATS their last six games. 

The Terrapins beat West Virginia and then won their next game by a score of 62-0. No rebuilding for them. Their coach is in his third year here and they've got big plans for the season. 

In the only previous meeting, the Terrapins outgained Illinois by a 712-493 margin, crushing them 63-33. The Terrapins ran for more than 400 yards. That was in 2018 but 2021 looks like another big win. Lay the points with Maryland. 

Cubs (Davies, 6-11, 5.40) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.25)

The Brewers are comfortably aligned for the post-season, with very good starting pitching and a very sharp bullpen. All they need now is to jump-start their recently sluggish bats. Today’s game might be that opportunity.

The Cubs’ bats have been hot lately, but that hasn’t translated into wins. At 4-6, and 20 games out, they are just playing out the season at this point. Cubs starter, Zack Davies has been a workhorse this season and had a couple of quality starts in August, but has since struggled. He is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.76 in his last three starts. Supported, or not supported by a bullpen with an ERA of 6.00, pitching an unsustainable 4.25 innings per game of late, this does not bode well for their chances today. Add to this a 27-44 road record.

Brewers starter Adrian Houser is on the mound today for the Brewers. Houser, a real success story for the Brewers, had a rough start three outings ago, but in his last two starts has given up 0 runs over 15 innings. He has had great support this season with a team record of 16-7 with him on the mound. I mentioned that the brewers’ pen was sharp. How does an ERA of 0.67 L7 sound? The Brewers are a solid home team and 71-42 vs right-handers.

The odds for the Brewers are very favorable.Take the Brewers, - 1 1/2. They are worth the extra runs today.

Phillies (Wheeler, 13-9, 2.86) vs. Mets (Walker, 7-9, 4.29)

Neither the Mets nor the Phillies are completely out of contention for the playoffs, but both teams have struggled to make it happen. Can Taijuan Walker return to something resembling his first half self? He has been an enigma this season. He has struggled since the first start after his All-star performance, and has a 9.58 ERA in 2 games in September. In his last outing against the Yankees, he gave up 5 runs in an inning then set down 13 batters straight with 8 strikeouts. So which Walker shows up on Friday?

His opponent for the Phillies is Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been a force this season, but has also thrown a ton of innings, which resulted in some signs of fatigue in August. His very long starts have been curtailed to some extent, and he has righted himself in his last two starts. He has faced the Mets twice this year and has shut them out over 16 innings.

Both bullpens have struggled mightily in the past few weeks; the Phillies’ with a 6.92 ERA, and the usually dependable Mets’ with a very poor 7.36 ERA. The Mets have been hitting much better than usual, but not as well as the Phillies. The Phillies’ bats really stepped out on Thursday vs. the Cubs.

I like Wheeler and the Phillies in this game. Wheeler, even with his starts shortened, is still good for 6 to 7 innings. Walker is still an unknown at the moment, and the Mets relievers are struggling. Wheeler’s dominance of the Mets has been remarkable; I am surprised that the Phillies aren’t more of a favorite.

Take the Phillies to win outright.

NY Giants @ Washington

We played against the Giants in Week 1. They only scored 13 points. Washington wasn't much better. The Football Team managed just 16. Both games were comfortable under winners.

The Giants are 9-0 to the under after an ATS loss. Giants also 6-0 to the under after allowing 350 or more yards. WFT 4-0 to the under after a loss. Twenty of the last 28 meetings have produced unders. 

Two struggling offenses. Two capable defenses. A low-scoring division rivalry. Take the Under.

Astros (Valdez, 10-5, 3.26) vs. Rangers (Otto, 0-1, 6.92)

The Astros are comfortably in first in their division, while the Rangers are firmly in the cellar. That said, the Rangers are not going with a whimper. At 7-3 in their last 10 games, it is the offense driving this recent success. The Astros (6-4) are always dominant in run production, sitting 2nd in the league at the moment.

The Rangers’ rookie, Glen Otto, was brought down to earth in his last start, allowing 8 runs in 3+ innings. Previously he had been sharp in his first two starts, including five innings of shutout pitching against the Astros.

Framber Valdez has been effective most of the season, but his last two starts have not been remarkable. After pitching strongly in August his ERA has ballooned to 6.55 in September.

As one might expect, the numbers favor the Astros, and they are a huge favorite today. The total is more promising. The Astros were shutout by Otto, and that must be an irritant for these high-flyers. Many rookies start with a flourish, then stumble, and that may be the case today. Valdez could bounce back, but he does give up runs early. The total for the first half is low considering these two offenses. Take the OVER in the first five innings.

Ohio @ UL Lafayette

The Ragin' Cajuns are going to be difficult to score against. They were a bit hungover from the Texas loss and gave up some late points in last week's win. This week, a defense which returned 10 starters will be sure not to allow the same thing to happen. The under is 5-0 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 5 games after they passed for 280 yards in their previous game.

Ohio has gotten off to a terrible start. The Bobcats are 0-2 and they lost to the Duquesne Dukes last game. That was the first FCS win in history for the Dukes. Ohio scored only 26 points against a 1AA team which had allowed 45 the previous game. Seven of those points came when the Bobcats returned the opening kick for a TD. Without that, their score looks even worse. 

The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 to the under their last four Thursday games and this one adds to that. Take the Under. 

Indians (Quantrill, 5-3, 3.04) vs. Twins (Jax, 2-3, 6.44)

It is Quantrill vs Jax today, two young starters going in very different directions. Quantrill face the Twins in his last start, allowing only 1 run over 7.2 innings. His previous start against Boston was his worst, but he is 4-1 since the All-star break with a 1.97 ERA.

For the Twins starter, Jax, the season has not unfolded kindly. His starts are much worse through August and September, and while he still pitches for some length, he has given up far too many runs.

Neither team is performing at their peak at the moment. Cleveland has been the lightest hitting team in the MLB lately, and their bullpen is not quite as good as usual. The Twins scored 6 in the second game yesterday, but I don’t see that happening against Quantrill. Their offense is 22nd in the league at the moment, and their bullpen is slightly improved of late.

This game comes down to starting pitching for me. Quantrill has been dependable and has proven success vs. the Twins. Take Cleveland, a small underdog to win.

Cubs (Mills, 6-6, 4.35) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)

What a find the Phillies have in Suarez! Since shifting from reliever/closer, he has been razor sharp. In his last three starts he has allowed 2 runs over 16+ innings. His opponent Alec Mills has been up and down in his last three games, dominating the Reds and White Sox while struggling against Pittsburgh. Looking closer, he is usually a safe bet in his first 5 innings.

The Phillies offense is not at its best and their bullpen is very poor of late. The Cubs struggle on the road and will not have much success vs. Suarez. I like the under today, but only in the first half. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under in the first five innings.

Rays, (Wacha, 3-4, 4.63) vs. Jays (Ray, 11-5, 2.69)

This has to be the most compelling series in MLB right now. The hottest team in the AL is an underdog to the hard charging Blue Jays. The Rays are only 5-5 right now. They aren’t hitting at their usual clip and their once-stellar bullpen has been overused all season and now has an ERA of nearly 8 in the last three weeks. Their relievers are still pitching nearly 5 innings per game.

The Blue Jays know all about poor bullpens. Theirs has struggled most of the year, but is very good right now. AND they have Robbie Ray on the mound on Wednesday. Ray’s last start was his poorest in some time, but he is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.76 in his last 7 starts. He is very good at home and super sharp in day games (5-1, 1.95 ERA).

The Rays will drag out Michael Wacha on Wednesday to face the Jays’ fully loaded battery. Wacha has pitched well in his last three games, after a rough section earlier in the year. In his last 3 starts, he has only given up 4 runs over 14+innings. His starts are not of the lengthy variety, which is really what the Rays need right now.

The Jays are very much an “all or nothing” team, and lately there has been a whole lot of “all”. Tuesday saw a game of nothing as they were shut out with only three hits. I don’t think they will be shut out again by Wacha, but I am not banking on the double digit figures we saw with the Orioles.

The Rays have really drifted down in the batting standings and they are not as good vs. left-handed pitching. Yes, they are a brilliant road and road underdog team, but offense, Jays and theirs, and bullpen will do them in. Take the Jays to win outright.

Reds (Miley, 12-5, 2.89) vs Pirates (Peters, 0-2,3.37)

The Reds are just holding on to a wildcard spot, and face the Dodgers next, so this series vs. the Pirates is critical to their play-off chances. Off a pair of losses, they send out Mr. Dependable, Wade Miley. Miley shut out the Pirate over 7 innings in a previous meeting. He had a rough outing two starts ago, but has otherwise been very solid, consistently pitching for length and ER allowed. The Reds are 17-9 when he is on the mound and he is very good on the road.

The Reds usually potent offense has struggled in past weeks. Their bullpen, usually poor, is improved. They are a decent road team, and good vs. left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh, also 4-6, is, as they say, playing for pride at this point. Dillon Peters was a late pickup and has been solid in his 4 starts. He has yet to win and to pitch over 5 innings. He missed a start due to back strain, and in his last start gave up 2 runs over 4 innings.

The Pirates are weak offensively, although better of late. They have a poor home record and an abysmal record vs left-handed pitching.

I am looking for the Reds bats to come alive today, and the Pirates to struggle against a very effective lefty. Take the Reds to win outright.

Indians (McKenzie, 4-6, 4.44) vs Twins (Ryan, 1-1, 0.42)

The Twins used 6 relievers in their loss to the Yankees on Monday, and now face Cleveland in a double header. Rookie Joe Ryan threw 7 innings of shutout ball against the same Indians in his last start, which was only the second start in his career. Any relation to Nolan? Maybe he can give the Twins the innings they need on Tuesday..

The Indians had a day off to give their collective heads a shake and try and recover from their 2-8 bad dream. They also have a fine young right-hander pitching on Tuesday. Tristan McKenzie has been very sharp in his last three games, allowing 1 run each outing over 19 innings.

The Indians have the better bullpen, are faster, commit less errors, and are decent on the road. There is just one problem; they have the worst offense in the league of late. The Twins aren’t a powerhouse either and are only a modest home team. In the strange facts category, they are only 5-18 when playing on a Tuesday.

It appears neither team wants to win, so lets take the Total. Under 6.5 is available in this 7 inning start. Considering how these two youngsters have handled themselves and their ability to pitch some length, take the Indians and Twins to go UNDER in Game 1.

Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Thursday Night prime-time Opener between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers went well over the posted number.

The Sunday Night prime-time matchup between the Rams and the Bears also sailed over the posted number.

Now on Monday night we have a couple of high-scoring AFC teams read to battle it out and everything points to these high-scoring prime-time games continuing.

The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year. The Raiders averaged 27.1. Baltimore was one of the best defensively last season in conceding only 18.9 PPG, but the Raiders were one of the worst in allowing 29.9.

The Raiders and Ravens have played over the total the last five times they've met. Expect that high-scoring streak to continue here in their first game of the 2021/22 season. The play is the over the total 10*

Cardinals (Wainwright, 15-7, 2.98) vs. Mets (Hill, 6-6, 3.82)

The Mets and Cardinals are long-shots for a wild card spot, so this is still a significant series. Neither team has been able to break out of the .500 winning % range and make a run. It is Adam Wainwright vs Rich Hill on Monday. Wainwright has been one of the best in the league this season and shows no real signs of slowing down. He allowed 4 runs over 8+ innings in last outing which, for him, is a poor start. He is 6-1 with a 1.57 ERA over his last 7.

Rich Hill has been a bit of a surprise for the Mets, especially in September, with an ERA of 0.61 in 12 innings pitched over two starts. He has been very dependable and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 8 starts.

The Mets’ pen has been steady all year and even better in their last games. Where there has also been improvement is in run production, although less so against right-handers.

The Cardinals have been very soft at the plate, especially in the last three weeks. Their bullpen is usually average and has been slightly better last 7. They are effective vs. lefties.

It is a tough call on a winner in this game so I’m looking at the total. Both starters have been very effective and pitch for length. The total is not high considering the quality of the starters. Take the Cards and Mets to go Under.

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that were pretty good defensively last year, and inconsistent on the offensive end collide in LA tonight. 

The bottom line for this one for me though is that each starts a new quarterback in a new system and I think that despite both being veteran's, that it'll take time for both Andy Dalton of the Bears and Matthew Stafford of the Rams to form chemsitry with their respective offenses. 

Each side will be focused on establishing the run while on offense. We can expect a heavy pass rush from each defense as well.

When we consider what each of these team's game-plan will be in Week 1, we have to conclude that the under is the correct call.

Denver Broncos @ NY Giants

Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod as the starter for the Broncos week 1. Although he's been a bit shaky thoughout his career, I believe that Denver should be the right place for him. Courtland Sutton is back, and with a sharppened up defense, this Broncos team could be strong.

While the Giants picked up Kenny Golladay, they haven't shown us much yet. Last year, they finished 6-10 and I expect something similar this season. Dating back to last season. NYG is also a sad 1-7 in theur last 8 games played against teams from the AFC. 

Expect the young Broncos team to come out with fire off the Opening kickoff here. Take Denver ML.

Red Sox (Pivetta, 9-7, 4.67) vs White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.59)

With a good lead in the AL Central, the White Sox are comfortable, but for Boston it is red alert in their hunt for a wild card spot in the very competitive AL East.

Both starters have missed a start; Pivetta with Covid issues, and Lynn with a long-standing knee inflammation. Pivetta has struggled in August at 1-3, and 5.27 ERA. Lynn is coming off his worst start, allowing 7 runs over 5 innings. It will be interesting to see how these two starters respond.

Both of these teams can hit. Boston in particular has been potent lately. Both teams are very strong against righties. Pivetta has given up 4 runs in five innings or less in his last three starts. With both starters’ layoffs, a little rust is to be expected. I am looking at the early total today. Take the Sox’ game to go under in the first five innings.

Brewers (Lauer, 5-5,3.18) vs. Indians (Civale, 10-3, 3.25)

At 7-3 in their last 10, and now well ahead in the NL Central, the Brewers are in a good place. Eric Lauer is starting on Sunday and he has been in a good place as well. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last 7 outings and has only allowed 1 run over 14 innings in his last pair of starts.

His mound opponent, Aaron Civale is back with his 2nd start after a lengthy absence on the DL. He was very sharp before injury and was effective in his first start back. Don’t look for a long outing from him at this point.

Lauer’s ability to pitch late into the game is important as the Brewer’s bullpen is an eye-popping 7.77 in their last 7 starts. This figure is somewhat skewed by two terrible efforts; most of their last games have been acceptable. The Indians’ usually stingy bullpen has been worse than usual, at 4.50 ERA.

The Brewers have not put themselves well into first place with their run production. They are middle of the pack usually, and slightly better in the last two weeks. The Indians, also relatively light hitting, have the worst offense in the league of late. The Brewers are a very dominant road and road underdog team, and solid vs right-handers. The Indians are only 4-13 as a home underdog. Civale should pitch well on Sunday but his innings will likely be limited. I like Milwaukee’s chances and considering Cleveland’s struggling offense, I think it is safe to give the extra runs. Take the Brewers -1.5.

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Off a wildcard loss to theur divisional rival Rams, the Seahawks are coming back stronger than ever this season. Always dangerous Russell Wilson threw for 40+ TDs last season as well as rushing for a few. This year, look for Metcalf and Lockett to both reach the 1000 yard mark once again.

The Colts have been all over the place this offseason. Trading for Carson Wentz. Wentz then gets hurt and has to go through surgery. Not only that, but when he was at the end of his recovery he tested positive for Covid. Even through all of that, he was named starter and I expect him to be  a bit rusty in this one. Don't forget, offensvie lineman Quenton Nelson also had to undergo surgery this offseason. The Colts are also a terrible 0-7 in their L7 games played in Week 1. 

Having said all that, the Seahawks are by far the healthier team and I expect another great season from them. Look for them to involve Chris Carson a lot this season as well. Take the Seahawks +2.5 with ease.

Vanderbilt @ Colorado State

The Commodores scored only three points in their Week 1 game. That was a very disappointing loss against East Tennessee State. Vanderbilt was favored by more than 3 touchdowns. That showed just how bad Vanderbilt really is. Scoring won't be any easier this week.

The Rams were better than Vanderbilt but they weren't good either. They lost against South Dakota State, scoring only 23 points. Vanderbilt rushed for 2.7 yards per carry, CSU ran for 3.1 ypg. 

Commodores 4-0 to the Under L4 non-conference games. Rams 5-0 to the Under L5 vs. losing teams. Take the UNDER

Reds (Castillo, 7-15, 4.20) vs Cardinals (Mikolas, 0-2, 5.06)

The Reds padded their lead over the Cards yesterday, and will look to add on today. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds. Castillo has pitched better than his won/lost record would suggest, with solid starts of some length. He lost to the Cards a couple of starts ago but only gave up a pair of runs.

His opponent is Mike Mikolas. Mikolas has yet to find his groove after a very long stretch on the DL, giving up 11 runs in12+innings pitched. He did stretch out his last start to 5 innings.

The Cards bullpen has been solid but did stumble in the 9th yesterday. The Reds’ pen has been a stumbling block all season and has an ERA of 6.20 in their last 7 games.

The Reds have the superior offense in theory although they have under-achieved of late. The Cards, after a brief power surge,have been about normal, meaning low scoring, in the past week.

The Reds are a good road team, 50-38 as a favorite and solid against right-handers. Mikolas has yet to show signs of improvement. The wind is blowing out today. Take this game to GO OVER THE TOTAL.

Iowa vs Iowa State

The Hawkeyes come into this huge rivalry game off a dominating defensive performance against the Hoosiers last Saturday. Having said that, their offense wasn't at all the greatest as QB Spencer Petras only was 13-27 for 145 yards in the air.

Iowa State is also off a win. They definitely showed some room for improvement, but the duo of QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall is a force to be wreckon with. Last week, Hall made it 13 consecutive games with atleast a rushing TD and I expect that to continue here. The Cyclones are also a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games at home.

With both teams off wins this is going to be a very tough/physcial game. The battle of Iowa starts at 4:30pmET and I expect Iowa State to edge out the red hot Hawkeyes in this one. Take Iowa State ML.

Giants (Gausman, 13-5, 2.58) vs Cubs, Davies, 6-10, 5.16)

The Giants are on a tear, winning Friday 6-1 on a bullpen day. Eight pitchers combined for 1 run! Pretty well the only team as hot as them are their opponents today; the surprising Chicago Cubs. Why have the Cubs been winning? Bats and bullpen. They have been hitting above their weight for a few weeks and their relievers have been extremely effective in their last 7 games, with an ERA of 1.05. There is a caveat here; the pen has been averaging 4.9 innings a game of late which is unsustainable. Note that today the bullpen struggled and the offense was subpar. This is more typical of the Cubs this season. Zack Davies starts for the Cubs. It has been a poor season for Davies. He is 1-4, 6.70 since the All-star break, and has struggled at home. His starts have been very short lately, averaging about 4 innings.  He can pitch effectively, but the poor starts are becoming more frequent.

Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants. He isn’t pitching for quite the same length nor is he quite as effective at 4-2, 4.56 ERA since the All-star break, but he is still one of the premier starters in baseball. He is very sharp on the road (7-2, 1.95 ERA).

The Giants bullpen has been consistent all year, and has a 2.23 ERA lately. The Giants have also ridden their pen hard to the tune of 4.62 innings per game, and with eight pitchers used on Friday it is concerning.The Giants have a solid offense but it is better than usual in the past couple of weeks. They are very good away, versus right-handers, you name it, they are good at it.

Let's look at the total. I don’t see the Cubs scoring a lot of runs vs. Gausman, and while Davies was roughed up for 6 runs last start, he gave up 2 and 1 in his previous outings. The total is very high at 10.5. Take the Giants and Cubs to go under, even considering the weather.

Western Kentucky @ Army

Western Kentucky comes into this game off a week 1 win against a not so good Tennessee-Martin team. The Hiltoppers may have won that game, but I expect a completely different outcome here. The Hilltoppers are only 2-9-1 ATS in their L12 games played on Saturday.

The Black Nights looked absolutely dominant in week 1 against Georgia State (as an underdog) making it look easy. Army only threw the ball 4 times total, but when you can run the ball 67 times and average 4 yards per carry it's going to be tough for any team to compete against that. Army is also a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games played at home.

Although both teams are off a win, the Black Nights looked like they could beat some of the best teams in the league with their unique play-style. Look for Army to dominate from the opening kickoff. Tale Army

Padres (Musgrove, 10-8, 2.87) vs Dodgers (Urias, 16-3, 3.11)

The Padres are now a long shot for any post-season activities other than golf. The Dodgers are still in the hunt for first in the NL West. It is hard to say who is the Dodgers’ ace but certainly their winning-est pitcher is on the hill on Friday. Urias has been an eye-opener this season and shows no sign of slowing down. He has a 5-0 record since the All-star break and hasn’t given up more than two runs in 8 starts. Urias’s starts aren’t the longest, but he has already pitched 150+ innings which is more than double than in any other year in his career. Urias is supported by by the Dodgers’ very fine pen, with a 1.69 ERA in the last 7 games.

Facing him is Joe Musgrove, no slouch as a starter himself. In three starts, he has given up only 3 runs in 20+ innings, including a full game shut out. San Diego’s normally good bullpen has not been as sharp of late, with an ERA of 4.30.

The Padres are 3-3 in their last 6 games. They are 24 -16 versus lefties, but only 30-34 on the road. The Dodgers are lights out as a home team, and 61-38 vs. right-handed starters. They have great starters, a terrific pen, so why aren’t they leading the NL West? Because their once potent offense has stumbled into the nether regions of MLB team batting stats in recent weeks. In fact both teams are struggling in average and run production..

Two quality starters and two underachieving lineups. As of now the total is set at 81/2, which seems high to me. Take the Padres and Dodgers to go under on Friday evening.

Reds (Mahle, 11-5, 3.76) vs. Cards (Lester, 5-6, 4.89)

At 3-7 in their last 10, The Reds are in real danger of playing themselves out of contention, and have given the Cards some slight hope for their own play-off aspirations. This series is critical for both teams. Mahle has been consistent for the Reds. His last start was substandard, and he is known for the odd poor outing but for most of the season he has delivered. He is 1-1 in his last 3 games and regularly pitches into the 6th. He is 7-2 with an ERA of 1.90 on the road. The Cards Jon Lester is not the pitcher he once was, but a change of scenery seems to have done him a world of good. In 4 of 5 of his last starts with St. Louis, he has allowed only I ER per game. His last outing against the Reds was a 3-1 effort.

The Reds’ misfortunes lately can’t just be blamed on their struggling bullpen. Their offense is down considerably in average and run production. In fact, the relatively light-hitting Cards are outperforming them in recent weeks. The Cards’ bullpen is 3.51 in their last seven, which is much better than usual.

I have lost on Lester this year but his recent performance has been eye-opening. Between the Reds’ power outage and lackluster bullpen,I am wagering on the underdog Cardinals today, I think they may require the extra runs. Take the Cards + 1 ½.

Kansas @ Coastal Carolina 

What? A team from the Sun Belt laying this many points against a Big 12 team? It must be some kind of joke. That's the reaction some might have if they didn't know the real story. 

Kansas isn't just any Big 12 team. The Jayhawks are the single worst Big 12 team. Coastal Carolina isn't just any Sun Belt team. The Chanticleers are the best SBC team. They won 11 games last year and brought back 19 starters. Week 1 saw them deliver a 52-14 blowout.

The Jayhawks kept things reasonably close against Coastal Carolina the past two years. This is the first time they meet in Conway though and its going to get ugly. Lay the points with Coastal Carolina.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys are a different team with Prescott behind center. They can trade punches with any team on offense, even the defending Super Bowl Champions.

The Buccaneers were clearly peaking at the right time in January/February. We're into September now. They can't be expected to immediately perform at the level they were. 

It's possible that one team could pull away late in the second half but I expect this game to remain close most of the way. The line is generous. Take the points with the Cowboys (1st Half)

Rockies (Senzatela, 4.16, 4-9) vs. Phillies (Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)

The Rockies are going nowhere this year and at 3-7 in their last 10 games they are playing like it. The Phillies are still in the mix for a wild card spot but wins are now of the essence. Ranger Suarez has been a bright light since he switched to the starter’s role. He is now regularly pitching into the 6th inning and his ERA is super sharp at 1.38. He has only allowed 2 runs over 17 innings in 3 starts.

Senzatela has also been solid lately although his record and the team record will not show it. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.11 since the All-star break and one of the few bright spots in the Rockies lineup.

The Rockies road stats are astoundingly poor. They are 5 and 12 as a road underdog, and 18- 50 on the road. The Phillies are 39-28 at home, and 7-1 as a strong home favorite. They are very successful against right-handed pitchers.

The offensive stats for the two teams are remarkably similar from average to runs scored to slugging %.  They are also both struggling, with the 20th and 21st best offenses in MLB this past week. I am going to bypass bullpens today and just look at the first half. Based on both teams’ poor run production, and a lack of experience and/or success with the pair of strong starters, I am looking for the total to go under in the first five innings.

Royals (Hernandez, 5-1, 3.57) vs. Orioles (Means, 5-6, 3.47)

With little to play for but pride and salaries, KC is 3-7, and the Orioles, slightly better at 5-5. Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals. He has been a bright light this season, and now has 11 starts under his belt. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. His opponent John Means had a no hitter in May, and has been steady since return from the DL. He has allowed 7 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts. The Orioles have not been kind to Means with a 7-14 record when he is on the mound.

The Orioles are woeful at home, and in the rare times they are a home favorite, equally bad. In the weird facts category, they appear to not enjoy playing on Thursdays, going 2-10. Their bullpen usually struggles but, last night aside, has been better lately. KC is poor on the road, but better vs lefties. They apparently don’t mind playing on Thursdays, with a record of 7-9!

Neither offense is particularly potent, and today’s starters are about the best these two teams can offer. Last night’s game featured a very high total but I don’t think that will be repeated today. The under has featured in both of these starters’ games, and that is what I expect today. Royals and Orioles to go under.

White Sox (Keuchel, 8-8, 5.21) vs. Athletics (Montas, 11-9, 3.68)

The Sox and A’s are back at it today as Keuchel faces Montas. Keuchel has been inconsistent at best with only a rare quality start. He won against the A’s in August but that was the exception. The A’s batters have had considerable success against him in the past. He was 1-3 in August with a miserable 7.43 ERA, and has been poor on the road. Facing him is Frankie Montas. With a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last 3 starts, Montas has been sharp lately, and pitches for length, something the A’s need desperately. Their bullpen has been overworked and pounded mercilessly in their last games.

The White Sox have scored a ton of runs lately, and the A’s offense has been pulling its weight. The A’s are very good against lefties, which is bad news for Keuchel. The White Sox are good against righties and have had some success against Montas.

I am looking at the total today. With the combination of Keuchel’s woes and the A’s inept bullpen plus both teams’ respective abilities vs. right and left, take the total to go over today.

Reds (Gutierrez, 9-6, 4.17) vs Cubs (Mills, 6-6, 4.25)

Before their loss last night, the lowly Cubs had won 7 straight, while the Reds, still in the hunt for a wild card berth, are 3-7. The Reds starters have been solid but their bullpen has floundered and their usually potent offense is struggling. In fact, the light-hitting Cubs have outslugged the Reds significantly in the last two weeks. For most of the season the Reds starter Vlad Gutierrez would be just what was ordered for a turnaround, but after a very good run, he has had two rough and short outings. Tired arm or just a bump in the road?

Alec Mills starts for the Cubs. Except for a rough time three starts ago, Mills has been consistent. He beat the White Sox two starts back with a fine 8+ innings of shutout ball, and has been solid at home.

The Cubs’ bullpen, much to most peoples’ surprise, has been absolutely spectacular of late with an ERA of 1.05 in their last 7 games. The Reds’ pen has been a sore point all season and is 5.96 ERA over the last 7 games.

The Cubs are much better as a home team, at 38-32. The Reds are usually a good road team, but are 2-5 lately. The big question today concerns Gutierrez. He is a rookie with 18 starts already and has pitched just under 100 innings to date. I am not looking for him to bounce back today. Between Vlad’s health, and the Cubs’ and Reds’ respective bullpens I am taking the underdog Cubs to win today.

Twins (Ryan, (0-1, 5.40) vs Indians (McKenzie, 4-5, 4.62)

The Indians were shut out by the Twins on Tuesday. Neither of these two teams, barring the unexpected, will be in the postseason this year, but it is a good time to run out the rookies. Wednesday’s game is a case in point. Joe Ryan tosses only his second start in the MLB. Start #2 is commonly when the adrenalinedrops and the fear kicks in. Ryan was OK in his first start, but I am not counting on his second.

Compared to Ryan, Tristan McKenzie is a seasoned veteran. He struggled in the early season, but has definitely found his groove in August and September. In his last three starts, he has only allowed 2 runs over 21 innings.

The Indians bullpen is usually dependable but has not been up to snuff of late with a 4.91 ERA/7. McKenzie pitches for length as well as ERA, so this shouldn’t be such an issue. The Twins’ pen, usually unreliable, has turned the tables and is lights out at 1.37 collective ERA/7. Don’t count on this continuing, either. The Twins have faced and struggled against McKenzie. They also struggle on the road, and are poor as an underdog. For a once highly touted offense, the Twins have been very low scoring lately. The Indians have never faced Ryan. They are a decent home team, better than average vs. right-handers, but much better as a favorite.

I like McKenzie and the Indians on Wednesday. I am betting Ryan gets something of the sophomore blues, and McKenzie continues his winning ways. Take Cleveland to win outright.

White Sox (Lambert, 0-1,5.40) vs. A’s (Kaprielian, 7-4, 3.87)

Off a loss, and with an off day, the A’s need to change their feeble ways to keep any hopes of a wild card spot alive. Their fine rookie, James Kaprielian is on the mound, only he hasn’t been so fine lately. His ERA has regressed each month since the season opened. He has given up 11 runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. The home run ball (8 in his last 4 games) has hurt him badly, and his expected start length is only 4 to 5 inning.

The White Sox are having starting pitcher injury woes, which is likely why Triple A call up Jimmy Lambert is starting. He has given up 4 runs over 6 innings as a starter, so look for a very short outing today.

Both teams will likely rely on their bullpens to a greater extent today. This is OK for the White Sox and very bad news for the A’s. The Athletics’ pen has a monstrous ERA of 8.07 in their last 7 games.

As far as offense goes, The White Sox are one of the more potent teams in the MLB and the A’s are hitting above their weight lately.

I am looking at the total in this game. The White Sox have scored more than 10 runs in 4 of the last 9 games. The A’s have allowed 43 runs in their last five games! I had to check my math twice.. I am taking today’s game to go over the total.

Nationals (Espino, 4-4, 4.08) vs. Braves (Fried, 11-7, 3.51)

Atlanta was swept by the Dodgers, lost two of three vs the Rockies and has seen their momentum evaporate. Back home and with an offday, they will be looking to regroup and get back to the win column. The Nationals won in the ninth on Monday, (much to my surprise and dismay) but are only 2-8 in their last 10 games. Paulo Espino starts for the Nationals. He was very sharp in his starts mid season, but has slipped slightly in August with a record of 1-2, 7.45 ERA. Espino’s starts are 4 to 5 innings only, which leaves too much time with the Nationals’ sub-par bullpen (6.68 era/last 7) to win very many games. The Nationals are only 5-9 when Espino starts.

His mound opponent, Max Fried, has delivered in all categories this year. In his last 7 games he is 4-1 with a shining 1.76 ERA. He has only allowed 5 runs over 21 innings in his last 3 starts. The Braves’ relievers have also been very good lately.

Washington is 24- 41 on the road, 16-26 against left-handed pitching, and will be a significant underdog on Tuesday. I think between Fried, Espino’s short starts and the Nationals’ poor relievers, Atlanta will be good for the extra runs. Take the Braves to win – 1.5.

Louisville vs. Ole Miss

The underdog came back to cover in last night's game. The Rebels will make sure it doesn't happen twice in a row. 

The Cardinals aren't a bad team. The problem is that Ole Miss is a lot better than they even realize. The Rebels were tied 42-42 in a game against Alabama last season and they return 17 starters from that team. The offense is among the best in the country and the defense will be much better than last year. 

The Rebels are 13-5 last 18, against the spread in neutral site games. Last time they opened the season at a neutral site, they beat Texas Tech 47-27. This one should play out similarly. Lay the points with Ole Miss. 

Phillies (Wheeler, 11-9, 3.01) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-7, 2.35)

Here are two teams still in the hunt. The Phillies have been hot and send out their ace, Zack Wheeler today. Wheeler has been in the run for the Cy Young award and has pitched the most innings in the league, but he shows all of the signs of a tired pitcher in his last starts. He is 3-3 in August with an era of 4.81. It gets worse. He has given up 15 runs in the last 20+ innings. He has been less successful on the road.

Brandon Woodruff is on the mound for the Brewers. Since a blip some starts ago, Woodruff has been very sharp, allowing only 1 run over 12 innings in his last 2 starts. He is excellent at home and in day games. The Phillies have had no success against Woodruff.

The Brewers are not a great home team, but they have dominated right-handed pitchers to the tune of 66-39. One issue today is that their usually sound bullpen has struggled mightily in their last 7 games. The Phillies offense has been potent in recent weeks, and are also successful against the right. Their bullpen has been much better with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 7 games.

These two teams haven’t faced each other since May when the Phillies swept the Brewers. I expect the Brewers are looking for a little payback this series. I like Woodruff in this game, but the Brewers’ relief tumble scares me off a bit. The under for the first five innings is low, and with Wheeler being very average of late, seems like a good bet. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.

Mets (Williams, 4-2, 4.27) vs. Nationals (Corbin, 7-14, 6.26)

The Mets and the Nationals face each other in the finale of the series, with the Mets leading. While this series may be meaningless in the post season scheme of things, players do compete for other reasons such as… salaries. Corbin starts for the Nationals. The only decent start Corbin had in August was the game I played against him. Otherwise, he is 1-5 with an ERA of 7.78 in his last seven games.

He is not particularly impressive at home and poor vs. the right. Mets are quite familiar with Corbin, thank you very much.

His opponent is Trevor Williams, an occasional starter/long reliever. A recent arrival, Williams has two starts and two outings of long relief with the Mets and has an ERA of get this, 0.69! Is this sustainable? Not likely. Is his bubble ready to burst? Time will tell. His starts have both been 4+ innings, but the Mets do have a good bullpen and it is a lot better and better rested than the Nationals’.

The Nationals have the much superior offense, but the Mets have outscored them 48-31 in their last two series. The Mets aren’t an especially good road team, but they are good as a favorite and against right-handers. Washington is very poor vs. the left, and 24 – 55 as a dog.

I am wagering on Williams and the Mets. He is a better bet in my opinion. If Corbin falters, that Nationals' pen has been so heavily used , it is nearly criminal.  Mets to win outright.

Winnipeg vs. Saskatchewan

Labor Day weekend is a big deal in the Canadian Football League. As far as Saskatchewan fans are concerned, this is one of the biggest games of the season. Both teams are playing good football. The Green Riders are 3-0. The defending champions are 3-1.

Both teams have shown an early tendency to the under. That has created a low total. Too low for a CFL game featuring the top rated offense, in terms of points scored per game, in the league. The Riders average 28.7 points per game. Last 10 meetings saw total lines ranging between 45.5 and 60.

Saskatchewan has gone 6-1 to the Over when off a bye. Take the Over

Mariners (Flexen, 115, 3.52) vs Diamondbacks (Gilbert, 1-2, 2.93)

The Mariners, 4-1 in their last five are making a real run for a wild card spot. They have their ace, Chris Flexen on the mound. He has only given up 4 runs in his last three starts and has an excellent road and daytime record. He faces rookie Tyler Gilbert, who pitched a no-hitter in his very first start. Beginner’s luck? He hasn’t fared as well since, allowing 9 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. Neither team’s offense could be considered powerful, so call it a draw. Both bullpens have been refreshing of late. Seattle’s relievers have settled in, and the Diamondbacks’ are much better than usual.

Gilbert’s no hitter may have the skewed the odds a bit, because Flexen and the Mariners are available for very reasonable price. I’m wagering on the ace today. Take the Mariners to win outright.

Twins (Jax, 3-3, 6.71) vs. Rays (Patino, 4-3, 4.24)

This season has been a trial for Griffin Jax and the Twins. Jax has given up a lot of runs in his last three starts, has been poor away, and has an ERA of 7.0 in August. Youngster Luis Patino has fared better. He has had some quality starts and is pulled early when struggling. He has been very sharp at home and in day games this season.

The Twins have a decent offense but have given up a ton of runs this season. Tampa has the most potent offense in the league, feast on the right, are 63-31 as a favorite and of course, a huge favorite today. Looking at the spread, Jax has given up 17 runs in his last three starts, and is often left in a game longer than is wise. While the Twins’ pen has been good lately, it has not been dependable over the season. Patino has not given up more than 2 runs in his last three starts, and is seldom hung out to dry.

Take the Rays -1.5 today.

Northwestern State @ North Texas

Big class difference between these schools, as evidenced by the pointspread. North Texas has a big game at SMU next and will use this game to build confidence for that one. They haven't won at SMU since 1933 but with an experienced team, this could be the year they have a shot. Blowing out Northwestern State will help prepare for that possibility. 

Mean Green bring back 19 starters, 9 on offense, 10 on defense. Those 19 returning players began last year with a 57-31 beating of another outmatched team.

Coach Littrell is 5-0 in his games against FCS schools, winning by nearly 30 points per game. Lay the points with North Texas. 

Phillies (R. Suarez) vs Marlins (Rogers)

After 6 straight wins and still in the wild card race, I am sure the Phillies had greater expectations for the Marlins than a 3-10 thumping. Look for payback today with Ranger Suarez on the mound. Suarez, the young onetime closer/reliever, has worked his innings up to the 6 per game range as a starter. His ERA for August was 2.03, and he has been all but unhittable against left-handed batters.

Trevor Rogers starts for the Marlins for only the second time since June 20. His early season was solid, but after a trip to the DL and a month missed for personal covid-related reasons, it is hard to know how the youngster will respond.

The Phillies have a superior offense, more reasons for motivation, and their once suspect bullpen seems to have turned the corner to respectability. The Marlins really struggle against lefties, and have a very poor record as an underdog, Their bullpen is excellent of late.

I am wagering on the Phillies. Rogers (not me) is too much of a wild card today, and Suarez has been most impressive. Take the Phillies to win. outright.

Fresno State @ Oregon

Fans of offense are in for a treat. Fresno State averaged 32.8 ppg and 479 ypg last year. This year's offense is loaded and already scored 45 points and 538 yards against UConn its opener. 

Oregon has 9 returning offensive starters. They have an experienced QB, throwing to excellent receivers, playing behind an experienced offensive line. The Ducks scored more than 30 points in every game but one last year. 

Ducks are 6-2 to the over last eight times they faced a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 5-1 to the over last six times they were off an ATS win. Go with the Over. 

Mets (Stroman, 9-12, 2.85) vs. Nationals (Fedde, 6-9, 5.08)

Marcus Stroman of the poor hit, good pitch Mets faces the Nationals for the second time in a week. He has beaten them twice in two meetings this year. Quality outings are no surprise with Stroman but wins are. His two wins vs. Washington represents 1/3 of his total this year. His ERA has slipped slightly since the break but he still delivers innings and ERA.

The Nationals start Erick Fedde. He is another workhorse who doesn’t pitch quite well enough to win frequently. He is 3-4 at home, and has an ERA of 5.17 since the all-star break. The Mets have hit well against Fedde in previous meetings.

The Nationals have the better offense, but almost everyone has a better offense than the Mets. Washington’s bullpen is much inferior to the Mets’, and has really struggled lately. Friday’s game was a case in point. The Mets’ pen has been particularly sharp in their last 7 games with an ERA in the 1’s.

The Mets swept the Nationals in their recent home series, and are 5-0 in their last five games. Stroman and the Mets are at their best in day games. Here is a curious stat; Mets are 9-3 in the first game of a double header, and Washington is 2-4!

I like Stroman and New York in this situation, but because of their lack of offense, not -1 1/2 worth. Hunt for the best odds and take the Mets to win outright.

Penn State @ Wisconsin

Two quality teams here, making this a very big game. Wisconsin has plans to win the West. Penn State hopes to challenge Ohio State in the East. The Nittany Lions outgained Big Ten opponents by +102 yards per game last season and they're going to be better this year. 

Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS their last four and 6-1 ATS their last seven in September.

Badgers are 1-4 ATS last five overall, 0-4 ATS last four Big Ten games. 

Wisconsin is always tough but Penn State has still won the last four meetings. Three were decided by 7 or less. Grab the points with Penn St.

Astros (Urquidy) vs Padres (Arrieta)

Jake Arrieta left his first start to injury after signing with the Padres. It was not a promising beginning for the once dominant starter. He has struggled this seson, has only delivered a handful of quality starts and has been a frequent victim of the homerun offering. Pair this with the mighty Astros offense, stymied by the Mariners, and I can sense a breakout.

Jose Urquidy is also back from the DL, and completed three good rehab starts before his return. He was 6-3 with an ERA of 3.38 before injury.

The Padres are in a tough spot re. pitching. Their starters have struggled and their once excellent pen is overused and ineffective lately. To top it off, their bats have been quiet. The Padres are a good home team but unsuccessful as a home underdog. The face a potent offensive lineup that feasts on right-handers. Look for a bounce back from the Astros and take Houston to win.

Cardinals (Wainwright, 13-7, 2.97) /Brewers F. Peralta, 9-3, 2.45)

Two premier starters face each other on Friday. The Cards’ Adam Wainwright at aged 40 is pitching as well as he ever has. He is 6-2 on the road and has given up 2 earned runs in 21 innings pitched over his last three starts. He is very good against right handed batters. It is Freddy Peralta for the Brewers on Friday. Peralta’s stats are excellent for the year, but he has been on the disabled list for a couple of weeks and this will be his first game back. His outings are shorter, around five innings, but he has the support of the Brewers’ bullpen which has been very good, if well used lately. The Cardinals’ bullpen, usually dependable, has been poor in their last 7 games, but when Wainwright is on his game, he hasn’t needed much relief.

There is no doubt that the Brewers have the superior offense, but I am riding on Wainwright and the Cards. After a few weeks absence it may take Peralta a few innings to settle in and Wainwright has been almost unhittable lately. Cards are a pretty good underdog, so take the Cards +1 ½. If you are feeling bold, well then it is up to you.

Old Dominion Monarchs @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The Monarchs haven't played a game since 2019 and in that season, they were an awful 1-11, including losing each of their last 10. Because of their year off, they have lost some key players and will lack experience out there this campaign. Even the coach is new and hasn't coached a single NCAAFB game as HC in his life. Entering this game against the Demon Deacons,  the Monarchs are a sad 1-5 ATS in their L6 week 1 games. Expect another dreadful year from there guys.

Wake Forest is bringing back 20 of thier 22 starters from last season, including every offensive starter. Although they ended the season 4-5, they beat teams like Virginia Tech on the road when they were ranked #19th in the country. Dating back to 2019, the Demon Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home in their last 6 games. This year I expect a much stronger group of guys with much more experience to bring home a bowl game. 

With Wake Forest as the much better team, I expect a blowout here in North Carolina. -32 is a lot, but this one should be easier than people think. Take the Demon Deacons!

Indians (McKenzie, 3-5, 4.83) vs Royals (Minor, 8-11, 5.30)

KC lost a close one in extra innings last night and now turn to Mike Minor to put things right. Minor hasn’t had a lot of success lately. He has been a real workhorse for the Royals, but with the Royals light hitting ball club, just doesn’t pitch quite well enough to win games. He is 4-6 at home with a 5.28 ERA, and fares worst vs the right. His mound opponent Tristan McKenzie has been razor sharp of late allowing only 3 runs over the last 21 innings. He missed a start due to should fatigue but is reportedly ready for play now. Cleveland’s bullpen is slightly worse than its usually dependable self, but McKenzie has pitched for length this season. KC’s relievers have been good but very well used of late.

Combined with KC’s generally poor offense is their inability to hit right-handers. They are only 37-53 in this regard. The Indians are a decent road team, and have had success against Minor in past meetings. My advice is to look for the sweep today and take the Indians to win.

East Carolina vs. Appalachian State

The Mountaineers are loaded on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State averaged better than 34 points last season, as well as more than 450 yards. Many of the skill players that put up those numbers are back. The secondary was already the best in the Sun Belt and the Mountaineers bring back 10 defensive starters. 

The Pirates are a bad defensive team. They will have trouble stopping the balanced Mountaineer attack. Thursday night football has not been kind to ECU. The Pirates are 5-12 ATS their last 17 Thursday games. They are also 4-11 ATS their last 15 outside of their own conference. 

The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball. They won't be stopped in this one. Lay the points with Appalachian State. 

Red Sox (Rodriguez, 10-7, 5.12) vs. Rays (McClanahan, 9-4, 3.50)

The Red Sox won in the 9th last night and it was an achievement; not just that they beat the Rays, but that they were able to field a team. Their roster is seriously depleted with positive Covid cases. Rodriguez will start for them. He has been solid lately, although up and down in games, throwing 6 shutout innings in one game, then allowing 5 runs in 3.2 innings the next. He allowed 2 runs over 4 innings against Tampa the last time he faced them. He struggles against the left and is not at his best on the road.

The Rays’ fine young rookie, McClanahan, is a real road warrior. He is also 6-1, with an ERA of 2.90 in his last seven starts, and has given up only 5 runs in 16+ innings.

The Rays are a very different team. They are the archetypal “no star” winners and they are superbly run. They get a lot of mileage out of their excellent bullpen usually, although it has not been quite as faultless of late. Boston’s pen is also very good. The Red Sox are a good road team, and decent against lefties, but they are going to be missing some key pieces for a few days.

The Rays are 9-1, and deadly against left-handers. They have an excellent home record and are formidable as a favorite. At this point, I doubt they are going to lose 2 straight. Take Tampa to win outright.

Astros (Odorizzi: 6-6, 4.46) vs Mariners (Gilbert: 5-5, 5.44)

Houston was shut out last night. Kikuchi surprised me with an unexpected return to pre-allstar form. Rookie Logan Gilbert is pitching for the Mariners, and any surprises are far more unlikely. Gilbert has struggled mightily; in his last 3 starts he has given up 19 runs in 12+ innings. He has been poor at home, and was absolutely pummeled by the Astros just 10 days ago.

Odorrizzi starts for the Astros today. He is 3-2 in August and has allowed 7 runs in his last 15+

innings. He is not a good road starter and has struggled against the right.

The Astros have the edge in offense, and tend to prey upon struggling right-handers. Let us take the bullpens out of the equation, and wager on the first half. Take the Astros/ Mariners total to go over in the first five innings.

Cardinals (Mikolas: 0-1, 2.70) vs Reds (Miley: 11-4, 2.74)

The Reds, still in the hunt for a wild card spot, have lost 3 in a row, and it turns to Wade Miley to slap on a band-aid before things get out of hand. Miley has been terrific for the Reds, 3-0 in August, whilegiving up only 2 runs in his last three starts. He has a 7-2 record at home. His opponent today is Miles Mikolas, a recent returnee from a serious stretch on the DL. The early returns on Mikolas are very promising. He has given up 4 runs over 13+ innings in his first three starts. The Reds are one of the best hitting teams around, and to date, Mikolas has only faced the Pirates twice, so it might be a little early to jump on his bandwagon. In addition, the usually dependable Cards’ bullpen has not been as good. The Reds pen is always a sore spot on an otherwise strong team.

The total has gone under far more than average for these two teams, leading to an unnaturally low one today. The Reds bats will be hungry today. Take the first game of the Card/Reds doubleheader to go OVER.

Astros (McCullers Jr.: 10-4, 3.32) vs. Mariners (Kikuchi: 7-7, 4.26)

The Astros won late last night in a close one against the Mariners. I also won, with Seattle +1 ½. Today, Seattle sends out Yusei Kikuchi, their all-star selection this year. He has struggled ever since the break and has gone 1-1, 5.87 ERA in his last 7 games. He has also struggled at home. His mound opponent, McCullers Jr’s star has tarnished only slightly with a 3-2 record and 4.43 ERA over the same period. He is a terrific road starter at 7-1, 2.75 ERA and still pitches for 6+innings.

The Astros’ offense is dominant, and leads the league. They have a solid record against left-handers, and a fine road record. They have eaten up Kikuchi in past meetings. The Mariners are a good home team with a good bullpen, but Kikuchi’s outings have been very short, putting a lot of pressure on the relievers. The Mariners have struggled against Junior in past meetings.

I like the Astros and their hitting abilities today. Take Houston to win outright.

Braves (Morton:12-5, 3.60) vs Dodgers (Buehler (13-2, 2.02)

This is a must series for both teams. The Dodgers took their eye off the ball, lost 2 of 3 to Colorado, and were limited to 7 runs total. They have their big three on the mound against the Braves, starting with Walker Buehler. Buehler is as good a starter as you will find in the MLB. In his last three games he has allowed 3 runs in 21+ innings. He has an exceptional home record and is solid vs. both right and left. His mound opponent is no slouch. 37 years old Morton is still bringing it. He has been dominant on the road, and aside from a poorish start against the Yankees, allowing 2 runs or less while pitching an average of 6 innings per start.

These are two surging teams. Atlanta struggled against the Yankees and the Dodgers vs Colorado, but otherwise, winning has become a habit. The Dodgers surpass the Braves slightly in most categories from runs scored to relief ERA. It is hard to bet against the Dodgers so I am looking at the total. It is surprisingly high, so take the total to go under.

Brewers (Woodruff: 8-7, 2.38) vs. Giants (Quintana:

Milwaukee beat the Giants last night. Today it is Woodruff vs. (apparently) Jose Quintana, picked up yesterday on waivers and thrown into the fire today. Woodruff has been solid all year. He had one rough start two games ago but bounced back with 6 innings of shutout baseball. At 0-3, 8.23 ERA, Quintana has been anything but solid this year. It is a lot to ask even of a veteran to come in and start immediately.

The Giants had a bullpen start yesterday. Their relievers have not been up to their usual standard, and were ridden hard lately. Milwaukee’s bullpen has been superlative.

The critical factor is, of course, the substitution of Quintana for Wood. Take Milwaukee to win and get on board early before the lines change.

Astros (Garcia: 10-6, 3.21) vs Mariners (Flexen: 11-5)

The Mariners, 5 -5 in their last 10 starts have lost ground against the Astros. They need wins against the hard hitting Houston club, and Flexen is their most likely candidate. He has allowed 4 runs in his last 3 games while averaging just under 7 innings pitched. He is very good at home. He is supported by a Seattle bullpen that is generally good but lights out in their last 7 games.

The Astros’ starter, Luis Garcia has been equally effective in his last three starts, allowing 5 runs total in 16+ innings pitched. If he has struggled this year, it was on the road. While he is supported by the vaunted Houston hitters, the Astros relievers have not been dependable, to a tune of 7.55 ERA in their last 7 games.

It is hard to fault the Astros offense. They score more runs and have much higher OB% than the Mariners. They are dominant vs. right-handed pitching. The Mariners haven’t the same offense, but are a very good home team. Their home underdog record of 13-7 is significant.

I favor Flexen and the Mariners, but they will need the extra runs. Take Seattle +1.5.

Phillies (Wheeler:10-9, 2.90) vs Nationals (Jos. Gray: 0-1 3.75)

The Phillies off a win, have been sub-par and losing ground against the Braves. Zach Wheeler, once a sure thing for a quality start, has struggled in August at 0-3, and has allowed 15 runs in 20 innings.. Rookie Josiah Gray is on the mound for the Nationals. As far as shades of Gray, there has really been only one on view in his last 7 starts and that is Bright. He has worked his way up to 6 innings per game and has allowed only two runs in each of his last three starts. He held the Phillies to 1 run over 5 innings when he faced them at the beginning of August, Washington gutted their bullpen, but theirs has been outperforming the Phillies’ at least in their last 7 games.

The Nationals are significantly better in all batting categories than the Phillies. They have done well against Wheeler in past meetings. They do not have much of a home record. The Phillies are 27- 36 on the road but have a solid record against right-handed batters.

I favor Gray and the underdog Nationals against Wheeler and the Phillies. Wheeler just hasn’t been himself since his 9 inning shutout five starts back, and Gray is a comer. Take the Nationals +1.5. 

Brewers (Ashby) vs Twins (Jax)

The Brewers are off a pair of losses, and are not so comfortable that they can lose 3 straight. They start a youngster today. Aaron Ashby has been back and forth from triple A, and has a starter/long relief role. He has only pitched 8 innings in his last three games but hasn’t given up any runs. Hi is just what the Twins don’t like- a hard throwing lefty. His mound opponent is Griffin Jax (3-2, 6.29). Jax has delivered some quality starts this season but had a horrible start last time out. It will be interesting to see how the youngster reacts.

Milwaukee is an exceptional team on the road, and very good vs right-handed pitching. While not as strong as the Twins in offense, they have much superior relievers. The Twins are going nowhere this season, and are not a strong home team. A key stat is their poor play vs left handed pitchers. They are a paltry14 -27 in this regard. Speed may also play an issue in this game. The Twins are slow on the base-paths; they don’t steal bases and ground into more double plays,

I like the Brewers in this situation. Ashby has been very sharp in his role and the Brewers can support him in relief. Twins lack success against the left, and have a poor bullpen. Take the Brewers to win.

Reds (Mahle:10-4, 3.69) vs, Marlins (Luzardo: 4-7, 7.91)

The Marlins, off a win against the Reds send out 23 year old Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo was an effective pitcher for the A’s last year but has struggled this season as his stats would suggest. August has been particularly cruel to him, as have right- handed batters. His opponent Tyler Mahle has pitched well for the Reds. The only knock against him is his struggle at home; in away games he is 6-1 with an ERA of 1.84

Miami has a strong bullpen, which is good because they are likely to need it on Sunday. The Reds’ bullpen has not been effective, although it got the job done on Saturday.

Miami is a low-scoring team, not a particular threat at home and a 10-23 underdog. The Reds are in the midst of a wild card spot race and cannot afford 2 straight losses to Miami. They are very strong against left-handed pitching. I don’t think it is a matter of whether the Reds win, just a question of how much. It is tempting to bet on -1 ½, but the Reds extended their shaky bullpen to multiple innings on Saturday.. Take the Reds to win outright.

UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies

Although having a rough 3-5 2020 campaign, the Miners have high expectations for this season. With every offensive starter returning, they'll have all the chemistry in the world. Dating back to last season, UTEP is 4-1 ATS thier L5 games AND, going back even further, they are 4-2 SU in their L6 games played in August. In the past, Texas El Paso has owned this series as they are a dominant 8-3 the past 11 games against the Aggies.

New Mexico State is coming off a 2020 where they played 0 games. They did play 2 spring games this year though and that might of helped a little bit. But the Aggies are returning just 3 of 22 starters from 2019 and I expect that to be a problem this season. In the 2 games this spring QB Jonah Johnson only threw for 358 yards, with 1TD and 3INTs. They did have some success running the ball but I believe that UTEP will be able to shut that down for most of the game. NMSU is also a sad 0-6 in their last 6 season openers.

Having said all that, the Miners are the far better side and has played with each other for a long time. I expect a dominant win here for them. Take UTEP with ease.

Red (Gutierrez) vs Marlins (Alcantara)

Saturday’s Reds/Marlins game features Vlad. Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara, two very good 25 year old starters. These two pitchers faced off in their last starts just a week ago, resulting in a very well-pitched 3-1 Reds win. Alcantara has been consistent and solid all season but it doesn’t ever seem to show in the win column. In his last three starts, he allowed 2 or less runs, delivered a total of 22 innings pitched and only won one of three. Largely this is caused by Miami’s soft offense. In yesterday’s column, I described them as the 98 lb. weakling of the MLB and they proved me right, losing to the Reds 6-0.

Rookie Gutierrez (9-4, 3.68) has been equally effective, but has had the run support. He is 5-1, with an ERA of 2.95 in his last seven starts. Gutierrez has the mighty Reds bats to support him, which is good because one can’t always count on Cincinnati’s relievers. The one negative aspect with the Reds is their bullpen. Luckily Gutierrez has delivered length as well as wins this season.

The total is set quite low, but I still think it is the right wager. Take Red/ Marlins to go under the total.

Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Football Team

Baltimore comes into this game as the clear favorite. HC John Harbaugh is known for his preseason success and almost everyone knows about it. Dating back to 2015, Baltimore has now won 19 preseason games in a row. Incredible. Also, after sitting out the first 2 games of preseason, superstar QB Lamar Jackson could see some time with the ball in his. As of right now, the Ravens have two active QBs, him and Tyler Huntley, but it's up in the air right now whether he plays or not. 

After adding veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and WR Curtis Samuel in the offseason, the Football Team could be a playoff contender once again. Although, the team hasn't really looked sharp the first two weeks of preseason. Last week they barely beat the Bengals, and looked a bit shaky at times. Baltimore is a on a whole different level compared to the Bengals and I'm excited to see how they do against the Ravens this weekend.

The Ravens are by far the more hungry team and I believe that they will extend their preseason winning streak to 20 consecutive wins right here. -3.5 is definitely do-able but the Ravens on the moneyline is a gift. Take Baltimore (ML)

Red Sox (Eovaldi) vs Indians (Quantrill)

Th Indians lost to The Red Sox last night but have played well lately. They have Cal Quantrill (4-1, 3.44) a good young right-handed pitcher on the mound on Saturday. He is 1-0 in his last 3 games but has given up only 5 runs in 18 innings. The only problem with Quantrill is the rest of the Indians. They have a team record of 6-10 with him as a starter.

Boston has Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.66) starting. He has also been very solid, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. Of note, Eovaldi is a much different animal on the road, with a 5.02 ERA.

Cleveland is not a team that will commonly out-hit anyone, particularly the Red Sox. They have a reliable bullpen who have been extra sharp (1.95 ERA) in their last 7 games. The Red Sox pen has not excelled of late.

Boston is just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have now been passed by the Yankees for 2nd in their division. They have had some very high totals in runs scored in the past while which might account for the high total today. Certainly these two starters and Cleveland’s bullpen don’t warrant it.

As you might have guessed, I am wagering on the total. Take Boston and Cleveland to go under.

Giants (Gausman) vs. Braves (Fried)

Two NL division- leading teams face off today. Atlanta, off a rare two day break, had their winning streak broken and lost a pair to the Yankees. They send Max Fried (11-7, 3.49) to the mound today. No pitcher has been hotter than Fried. He is 4-0 with a minuscule ERA of 0.67 in his last 4 games, and is coming off a complete game shut-out. His mound opponent is Giants ace Kevin Gausman (12-5). He has not been as dominant in the second half and is just returning from Covid vax side effects. His last start was short and poor, a bit of a trend lately.

The Giants have been able to win Gausman’s starts in spite of his shortcomings and much of this is a result of their superlative bullpen. Always dependable, they have a 1.60 era in their last 7 games. The Braves’ relief has been average at best. This is not such an issue if Fried continues to throw for length.

The two offenses are statistically remarkably similar, from runs scored to slugging %. The Giants are a very good road team, and remarkable as a road underdog. The Braves are good as a favorite but only an average home team.

I like Atlanta’s chances here, but worry about their relief. Take the Braves to win first five innings.

Cincinnati (Miley) vs. Miami (Thompson)

Cincinnati, in the thick of the hunt for a wild card spot, must win against teams like Miami. The Reds swept Miami in their recent home series, and look to Wade Miley (10-4, 2.88) to continue this run. Miley is up to the challenge. He had a rough outing 3 starts ago but otherwise has been formidable. He pitches for length, ERA, and wins and has been very effective against left-handed batters.

Zach Thompson (2-5, 3.12) has pitched for average, but the Marlins have hardly been supportive. The team has a record of 3-9 when he is on the mound. He is 0-3, with an ERA of 3.48 in his last seven games.

If the Reds team is the muscle guy of the MLB, then Miami is the 90 LB. Weakling. I could string a series of ugly stats out, but the most telling are 7-11 home underdog and 13-25 against a left-handed starter. Both bull pens have been substandard in their last 7 games.

Miley is the better pitcher and the Reds are a much better team. Miami is nothing special at home.  Look for Cincinnati  to do a little sand-kicking. Take the REDS TO WIN,

Royals (Brad Keller) vs. Mariners (Kikuchi)

At 7-3 in their last 10 games, Seattle has closed the gap to one game behind the slumping A’s. KC, also 7-3, is playing for pride at this point but doing a pretty good job of it. Every series is critical for the Mariners, and they need today’s starter Kikuchi to return to his pre-Allstar form. He is off a very poor start, and has struggled with pitch effectiveness of late. He is 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA in August, and has a poor home record this year.

Brad Keller (not to be confused with the other Keller I am wagering on today) is 8-12 this year with an ERA of 5.43. At 2-3 and an ERA of 3.43 in his last 7 games he has shown a marked improvement of late. He tends to pitch better on the road but struggles vs. RHB.

The Mariners favor a right handed pitcher and are a solid home team. KC struggles on the road, but is good vs left-handed pitching. The Royals’ relief corps have been especially sharp in their last 7 games, while The Mariner’s bullpen has struggled lately.

Today’s question is: is this the day that Kikuchi rights the ship? Second question: will Keller continue his winning ways? The total today is low. I am wagering that the answer to at least one of these questions is no. Take this game to go over the total.

Yankees (Taillon) vs A’s (Kaprielian)

The Yankees are 10-0. The slumping Athletics have lost 9 of 12. Let us sidestep the issue of who wins, who loses, and look at the total. Kaprielian, Oakland’s starter has 2 of the A’s recent wins. He has allowed only 6 runs in his last 16 innings pitched. The Yankees, other than Gallo, have struggled when facing him.

Taillon, 4-0 in his last 7 starts, has a sparkling 1.99 ERA in that time. The A’s have not had much success against him. The Yankees pen has been in its usual fine form, however Oakland’s usually dependable relievers have struggled.

I like the TOTAL in the first 5 innings to go UNDER today.

Cardinals (Mikolas) vs Pirates (Keller)

The two starters on Thursday are both finding their way in the MLB, but for very different reasons. Keller was sent to the Minors after a very poor stretch early in the season. Mikolas has started only two games this season and also missed all of 2020 due to injury. In his first start back since May he threw for 5 innings giving up 0 runs on 2 hits. The same game was Mitch Keller’s best start of the season. He also threw for 5 innings and also gave up no runs. Keller’s stats are shaky, but since his return he has shown steady improvement.

The light-hitting Cards are a powerhouse when compared to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the lowest runs-scored output in the MLB. Their other stats are equally poor; they are 11-21 as a home underdog, and 36-52 vs the right. Their bullpen has been better than usual at a 3.49 ERA in their last 7 games.

The Cardinals, off a win against Detroit, are now 5-5 for the last ten games. Their bullpen has been terrific lately at 2.23 in their last 7 games. They have a good record as a road favorite, which admittedly does not happen all that often.

I’ll give Keller a little more credit than his stats would suggest. Watching the highlights of his last start Mikolas looked terrific, and could be a great addition to the Cards’ rotation. I am wagering on a total in this game. Take the TOTAL to go UNDER.

Reds (Castillo) vs Brewers (Woodruff)

The Brewer are sitting comfortably in first in their division, but the Reds, 7 games back are still in the mix for a wild card spot. it is Castillo (7-12, 4.35)) vs Woodruff (7-7, 2.48) on the mound tonight. Castillo started very poorly this season and then turned things around through July and August. His thirdlast start was a reversion to the dark side, but he was sharp in his last two starts, going 14 innings and allowing only 4 runs. Woodruff (7-7, 2.49) is usually very dependable but something was up in his last two starts. He was removed after 3 innings for wildness two starts ago, then bombed in his last start, allowing a very uncharacteristic 6 runs in five innings. One bad outing? No big deal, but two poor outings can signify trouble.

The Reds have an enviable road record and have much the better offense. It is their bullpen that has the Reds’ Manger Bell tearing his hair out. Milwaukee’s offense is middle of the pack but their pen has been very reliable, including a collective ERA in the low twos in their last 7 games. They have an exceptional record against right-handed starters.

The total is very low for these teams, but considering Woodruff’s last two starts, the Reds’ potent bats, and the Brewers’ record vs right-handers, I am looking for more runs to be scored. Take the Total to go OVER in the first five innings.

Tigers (Skubal) vs. Cardinals (Lester)

It is a day game after the night before. Detroit won a close one last night, and sends out Tariq Skubal (8-10, 4.07) today. Skubal has been very good in August, pitching 17+ innings and allowing only two runs. He has improved dramatically since the season started. Jon Lester (4-6, 5.46) has had one good start since the move from Washington. His other starts have been poor and short. He has really struggled in day games. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been very good but was used hard yesterday, and could use some length from Lester, which is unlikely to happen.

The Tigers’ bullpen has gone through a very rough patch with a collective ERA of 7.24. Luckily Skubal can be counted on for innings.

Offense favors Detroit. The Cards are quite light hitting, and rely on their pitching for success. They have struggled since returning to St. Louis, and are 2-5. Detroit is 3-1 in recent starts including a pair of wins vs the Jays. They have a positive record as a road underdog and hit the left well.

I like Detroit, the underdog, in this game. Lester hasn’t delivered the goods, and Skubal has. The Tigers’ relief is an issue, but the Cardinals’ offense is soft. Take Detroit to win outright.

Yankees (Heaney) vs Braves (Morton)

The two hottest teams in baseball met up last night and the Yankees won handily. Today it is Heaney (8-8, 5.51) vs Morton (12-4, 3.47). Heaney had a fine outing in his last start but this has hardly been the norm, giving up 11 runs total in his previous two starts. His ERA has been 6.55 in August. Morton is a different case altogether. He has had a terrific season, and is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing only 4 runs in 18 innings. If there is a caveat with Morton it is that the Braves have squandered some of his fine starts.

Which leads us to the bullpens. Even with the acquisition of Rodriguez, the Braves’ pen is still their weak point, and has only been average of late. The Yankees’ relief staff have been good all year, but lights out in their past seven games.

The Yankees are a very good road team, and solid against right-handers. The Braves are only a so-so home team for the season, but very good against left-handers. Much is on the line for both teams, so motivation will not be a factor. Even with the Yankees’ key acquisitions, the Braves have the edge in offense.

Heaney is often poor right out of the gate. With Atlanta’s heavy hitting line-up and success vs left handed starters, I am looking for the Braves to bounce back and take this game. Wager on the Braves to win outright.

Mariners (Flexen) vs. A’s (Irvin)

At 7-3 in their last ten games and the Athletics the opposite, the Mariners are reeling in the A’s. This is a critical series if either team is to make a run for the postseason. Both Flexen (10-5, 3.65) and Irvin (9-11, 3.57) have been effective starters for their clubs. Flexen had some success vs Oakland the last time he faced them, allowing 2 runs over 6 innings. He is a good road pitcher, with a 2.20 ERA in his last 4 starts. Irvin has been equally sharp. Over his last three starts he has averaged 6 innings per outing and given up 8 earned runs. Irwin is 0-2 against the Mariners this year, allowing 4 run in each start.

Oakland is a middling hitting team, and relies on starting pitching and pen for success. Right now their bullpen is struggling and their record with it. It is hard to get a read on the Mariners at the moment. They have had some wild losses but not involving Flexen. They have had success against Irwin. Their bullpen has also struggled considerably of late. Based on Flexen’s past results and the A’s woes of late, I am wagering on Seattle in this game. They may need the extra runs, so take the Mariners + 1.5 today.