The set-up: The White Sox need to wake up and start living up to their expected potential and they'll be eager to bounce back after a listless 4-3 loss yesterday. While that game stayed "under" the number, all signs point to this one finally flying over as the game comes down the stretch in my opinion. Lucas Giolito (0-1, 17.18 ERA) was rocked for seven runs off six hits with three walks over three innings in an opening day loss to the Twins on Friday. Things certainly aren't going to get any easier for Giolito here eitehr facing this 

The pick: Zach Plesac (0-0, 0.00) gets the nod for the home side. Last year he was 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA. Plesac did enough in the short spring tune up to get a shot in the rotation, but note that he had a 4.56 ERA in all "night" contests a year ago. I look for these pitchers to get the hook early and I expect these line-ups to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER White Sox/Indians.

The set-up: I believe that the Nationals are well worth the price of admission in this particular starting pitching matchup. The Nats hand the ball to ace Max Scherzer (0-1, 6.75 ERA), who was 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA last year. He gave up four runs while striking out 11 over five innings in an opening day loss to the Yanks, but I think he'll bounce back large vs. Toronto. 

The pick: Nate Pearson gets his major league debut here in this difficult situation. Pearson gets the call up and he had a decent spring, but the book is clearly still out on the rookie. The defending champs are down some people due to injury, but they still can't be happy with the way they've performed at the plate to open 2020; I'm completely expecting that trend to change here. Lay the price.

8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: I think this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Antonio Senzatela was 11-11 with a 6.71 ERA for the Rockies last year. He looked decent in his spring tune-up, but his inconsistency from last year has me hesitant and regression does seem imminent. 

The pick: The home side counters with Daniel Mengden, who was 5-2 with a 4.83 ERA last year. Mengden had a strong spring to earn the fifth spot in the rotation; note that he was 3-1 with a 4.01 ERA in all "night" games last year. Oakland enjoys a significant home field advantage and I expect that trend to carry over here; lay the price.

8* COACH'S CORNER on the A's. 

The set-up: LA had yesterday off to travel for this contest, while Houston had a game at home vs. the Mariners. Walker Buehler gets the nod for the visitors and he was 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA last year, but note that he saw limited action in his spring tune-up, working just two innings the other night, his longest outing of the session. 

The pick: Framber Valdez gets the call for the home side and he was an unremarkable 4-7 with a 5.86 ERA last year. That included a 1.67 WHIP over 70.2 innings of work (was an extremely poor 2-5 with a 7.46 ERA in all "night" games as well.) Finally note that the Astros have seen the total go over the number in nine of their last 11 interleague home games as an underdog in the +105 to +145 range. I'm banking on a slug-fest from start to finish.

8* LINE-MAKER MISTAKE on the OVER Dodgers/Astros.

The set-up: The Diamondbacks are floundering to open the season and I think they'll stumble again here in this difficult interleague road venue on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, who was 13-14 with a 4.42 ERA last year. Kelly was sharp in his rookie season, but if he had one weakness it was his play on the road, as his ERA rises to 5.42. 

The pick: The home side counters with Kyle Gibson, who was 13-7 with a 4.84 ERA last year. In his final tune-up Gibson went five innings and allowed two runs, while striking out five. Arizona is struggling to produce offense and I expect that trend to carry over in the opener of this three-game set. All things considered, I'd call this the very definition of "great line value."

8* DESTRUCTION on the Texas Rangers.

The set-up: Despite what happens between these teams on Modnay, I think that Alec Mills is getting little respect in this spot. Mills was 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA last year as a starter. He also posted a 42:11 K:BB over 36 innings (nine appearances.) 

The pick: Tyler Mahle was 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA for the Reds last season and he's being pressed into service out of necessity. Mahle did go four innings last Friday in a scrimmage and he'd allow four runs, including a three run dinger. In this case I love the experience and proven track record that swingman Mills brings in this matchup and I'll gladly back him at this value. 

10* SITUATIONAL UNDERDOG BEST BET on the Chicago Cubs.

The set-up: Despite what happens on Monday night between these two clubs, I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks on Tuesday night, as I'm not convinced either starter will last long before getting the hook. ATL turns to Kyle Wright, who was 0-3 with an 8.69 ERA last year and who enters having had a mediocre spring tune-up, in which he arrived to the team late. Note that he was particularly poor after the All Star Break last year as well, posting a 13.85 ERA.

The pick: The home side counters with Yonny Chrinos, who was 9-5 with a 3.85 ERA last year. Chirinos though also arrived to camp late due to a positive COVID-19 test. While he's been given the green light, clearly he'll be on a leash and yanked quickly if he starts to run out of gas. I look for these two "gas cans" to exit early and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the OVER Braves/Rays.

The set-up: These two starters aren't well known, but I do believe they're going to end up being the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries once it's all said and done on Monday night. The visitors hand the ball to Kendall Graveman, who was flashing 97 MPH speed in his final tune-up on Wednesday. Graveman had a solid Spring and he looks 100% after Tommy John surgery. 

The pick: Josh James was 5-1 with a 4.70 ERA for the Astros last year and after a strong camp, he's earned the fourth spot in the rotation. Also note that the Astros have seen the total fall under the number in eight of their last 11 home games after allowing seven or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high.

8* PITCHERS DUEL on the Mariners/Astros UNDER.

The set-up: The Jays lost two of three in Tampa to open, including allowing a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the 9th evaporate. Yes, the Nationals are down some men, but I still think the defending champs will find a way to get the job done here once it's all said and done. The Jays hand the ball to Trent Thornton, who was 6-9 with a 4.84 ERA last year and while he had a decent spring, I still think he's in over his head in this difficult road venue.

The pick: The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez, who was 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA last year and who gave up three runs while striking out eight in an instrasquad matchup in his final tuneup. Note as well that he was particularly good in all "night" games last year, going 7-5 with a 3.10 ERA. And finally note that the Nats are 7-2 in their last nine interleague night home games as a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Nationals.

The set-up: The Angels and A's continue their series with the finale in this four game set. The visitors hand the ball to Griffin Canning, who was 5-6 with a 4.58 ERA for the Angels last year, but how looked dominant in his final spring tune-up, going six scoreless, allowins three hits and two walks while striking out five vs. the Padres. Last year he whiffed 96 batters in 89.1 innings. 

The pick: The home side counters with Chris Bassitt, who was 10-5 with a 3.81 ERA last season and who also had a solid camp. While yesterday's contest went "over," the number, I think these two competent and hungry starters are going to battle deep into the latter frames. Combined with the fact that the Angels have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last 11 AL road games after allowing five or more runs in their previous contest and the "under" does indeed become the savvy call in this matchup.

8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Angels/A's.

The set-up: This series has so far featured plenty of starting pitching talent and not much offensive action, but I think that trend finally ends in the finale of this three-game set. Sean Newcomb was 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA for the Braves last year. Note though, like the rest of the Braves' starters to open the season, Newcomb will be on a pitch count here. I think that definitely helps in our cause in pushing this one over as well. 

The pick: Rick Porcello gets the nod for the home side and he was a poor 14-12 with a 5.52 ERA last year. Porcello is clearly on the downward side of his career and I think that regression is imminent this season as well. Finally note that the Mets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last nine NL home games after playing to the "under."

8* HOME RUN CLUB play on the OVER Braves/Mets.

The set-up: I like the A's to battle tough here in the finale of this three-game set. Shohei Ohtani was decent in spring and he won't be restricted here, but note that he did struggle with his command, allowing four walks and five hits over five innings in his final tune-up. 

The pick: Mike Fiers was a consistent bright spot for Oakland last year, going 15-4 with a 3.90 ERA, including going 9-2 with a 2.91 ERA at home. Finally I'll point out that Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -101 to -121 range. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Oakland A's. 

The set-up: The Cardinals have looked dominant over the first two games of this series, dominating from start to finish in a 9-1 victory yesterday. Now I expect a similar final outcome here as well and that makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Mitch Keller was just 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA over 11 starts in his debut 2019 season. 

The pick: The home side counters with the steady Daniel Hudson, who was 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA last year. Hudson had a mediocre Spring tune-up, but note that he was 9-2 with a 2.75 ERA at home last year. This Cards' line-up is mashing the ball and I expect that trend to continue here in the finale of this opening series. Lay it.

8* PLAY-BOOK on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The set-up: So far this series has seen plenty of runs, but in the finale I'm finally expecting a lower-scoring "duel." The visitors go with Kenta Maeda, who was 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA last year and who allowed three runs over five frames with seven K's in his final tune-up. 

The pick: Reynaldo Lopez was 10-15 with a 5.38 ERA last year, but he was his best at home by posting a solid 4.18 ERA. I think it's signficant to note as well that the ChiSox have seen the total dip below the posted number in five of their last six home games after going "over" the total in back-to-back home contests. Look for this one to sneak "under" once it's all said and done.

8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Twins/White Sox.

The set-up: The Rays evened up this series with a 4-1 victory last night, but neither side can be too happy yet with how it's performed at the plate in the early going. Tampa had just five hits for the second straight game yesterday. Tampa ace was 0-1 with a 2.51 ERA in three starts vs. the Jays last year.

The pick: Thomas Hatch is expected to make his debut for the Jays this afternoon. Toronto will then make a quick turn around for a series vs. the Washington Nationals. Note as well that Toronto has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten AL road games after losing and scoring one run or less in the process. Look for these two offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Jays/Rays.

The set-up: Arizona pitcher Robbie Ray had a very strong spring tune-up and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. Most recently he concluded the spring portion by giving up one run and one hit over six innings in an intrasquad match, while also striking out nine. Last year he was 12-8 with a 4.34 ERA. 

The pick: Dinelson Lamet was 3-5 with a 4.07 ERA for the Padres last season. Lamet has had a decent spring as well, but I believe he's in over his head vs. Ray, who enters "firing on all cylinders." I look for the D-Backs superior line-up to do the rest.

8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The set-up: Max Fried should be a much bigger favorite here in my opinion. Fried posted a 17-6, 4.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 173:47 K:BB in 165.2 innings last season. 

The pick: Steven Matz on the other hand was 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA last year. Matz through had a "ho hum" spring training and he's been thrust into the spot light after Marcus Stroman went down with injury in the pre-season. Both teams are dealing with Covid issues, injury issues and other off field problems, but from a starting pitching stand point, I believe we're getting unreal value on the visitors today.

8* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The Jays continue their difficult opening road trip in Tampa Bay and once again I believe they're going to stumble here. Matt Shoemaker missed most of 2019 with injury and now he's starting off with a new team with plenty of new faces. While he's had a strong spring, I still feel he's in over his head here. 

The pick: Ryan Yarbough was 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA last season for the Rays and I believe he's destined for a break out campaign. He was especially tough at home and he also had a great spring tune up. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of great line value. 

7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCION on the Tampa Bay Rays.

The set-up: I think Marco Gonzales and the Seattle Mariners have much more than just a punchers chance in this one. Both pitchers had strong spring trainings. Gonzales has been a consistent bright spot for the Mariners for a while now, going 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA in 2018 and 16-13 with a 3.99 ERA in 2019. 

The pick: Verlander was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA last year and he's once again predicted to be among the best in the league by most experts. He isn't getting any younger though. Regression is imminent at some point obviously. Regardless, I expect Gonzales to easily match Verlander inning for inning to open this contest and in a scenario like that, I'll absolutely jump on this hungry and under-valued underdog.

9* SHOCKER on the Seattle Mariners.

The set-up: Both of these AL teams are expected to compete and possibly make the playoffs this season. Each is loaded with talented hitters, but I think that these two studs on the mound will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Jose Berrios gets the nod for the Twins and he was 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA last year. Berrios had a great camp and there's no reason not to believe that he can't bring the smoke here on Opening night. 

The pick:Lucas Giolito was 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA last year. In 2018 he was 10-13 with a 6.13 ERA. That's a huge improvement and there's no doubt the White Sox expect him to continue to develop this year as well. Teams don't have the luxury to "get up to speed," everyone needs to hit the ground running and establish something early. I believe these two starting pitchers battle deep and as such, look for this one to stay well below the number once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Twins/White Sox.

The set-up: Honestly, I could write a convincing argument for the Blue Jays to upset the Rays in this one, but I honestly don't think that's going to happen at all. Toronto has been well documented of late of having to deal with where it will play its home field games this season and I believe this continued distraction will in fact be a detriment to the team on the field of play today. Hyun Jin Ryu was 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA last year, but his counterpart Charlie Morton was 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA.

The pick: The Rays are picked by many to at least earn a wildcard spot in the playoffs this year and I believe they'll take advantage of this situation and find a way to get the job done at home on Opening Night.

8* PLAY-BOOK on the Tampa Bay Rays.

The set-up: There's no doubt that Jacbo deGrom is easily one of the best pitchers in the league. Last year he was 11-8 with a 2.43 ERA and in 2018 he was 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. deGrom has been given little support by the Mets throughout his career and with many of his sluggers sidelined with injury or other issues to open the 2020 season, I believe that trend of futility gets carried over here. 

The pick: Mike Soroka is the Braves' ace heading into 2020 after finishing 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA last season. Many predict that Atlanta will at the very least earn a Wild Card spot this year and I think it gets off on the right foot here in this favorable matchup. I look for Soroka to match deGrom inning for inning and in a situation like that, I'm taking the under-valued underdog.

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I'm going to lay the extra juice to take the UNDER 2.5 goals in this one. Sheffield United needs an outright win at home here to keep its Europa League hopes alive. The Blades undoubtedly play better at home than on the road, but with no crowd, that benefit diminishes. 

The pick: The Toffees won't be rolling over though, as note that they'd come from behind to share the spoils with Aston Villa in their last match. Everton's been anything but consistent though since the break. This contest has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a wide-open "shootout." 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Sheffield United/Everton.

The set-up: Tottenham annihilated Newcastle United 3-1 last time out, but I think it'll have its hands full with a much more talented Leicester side, which comes in off a 2-0 victory over Sheffield United. Harry Kane got one for the Spurs last time out, but note that fellow star Dele Alli is rated as doubtful for this contest.

The pick: Beating the Spurs in London is easier said than done though obviously. Leicester holds onto the fourth spot after its win last time out, so it will be looking to at least pull off a draw here. With both teams waiting for the other to make the first mistake, I expect this total to stay well under once the final whistle sounds.

8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Tottenham/Leicester.

The set-up: Norwich is terrible, but I expect it to find the back of the net here at Carrow Road on the penultimate day of the campaign. Norwich clearly has nothing to lose here after five straight losses. The Canaries did not secure a spot in the league next year, so they'll only be playing for pride here. 

The pick: The Clarets on the other hand have not lost a league game in seven straight matches. Burnley most recently went to a 1-1 draw with Liverpool and Wolverhampton and there's no reason not to believe that it won't have the gas on the pedal from start to finish this afternoon as well. I expect each team to play loose and ultimately I believe this will help in this total soaring over the number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Norwich City/Burnley.

The set-up: Leicester had a 1-0 lead over Bournemouth going into half last week, but when the smoke cleared at the end of the game, the Foxes would end up losing 4-1. Leicester is in trouble of falling out of the top four and it will surely be giving a better effort, but the Blades have looked a lot better themselves of late, most recently coming off a commanding 3-0 win over Chelsea. 

The pick: With a Europa League spot still on the line for Sheffield United, combined with the "home field" advantage, I'll gladly lay the small price for the extra 0.5 goal of insurance in this one. 

10* PLAY-BOOK on Sheffield United +0.5 -114 Pinnacle.

The set-up: Calvin Kattar is 21-4 and Dan Ige is 14-2. Kattar is a 3-1 favorite to win this fight, but I think Ige will take this one distance. Kattar has won his first seven UFC fights and four have come by knockout, but Ige won't be an easy "out," as he comes in on top form from as far as being in shape right now, as this is his third fight since early February. 

The pick: I think Ige bides his time in the early rounds and doesn't push, instead waiting for an opportunity to score an upset after wearing Kattar down. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER 2.5 -134 Pinnacle Kattar/Ige.

The set-up: The Wolves hammered Everton 3-0 last time out, while Burnley earned some much needed points with a 1-1 draw vs. Liverpool. In my opinion, this particular contest has "war of attrition" written all over it. The Clarets were admittedly "lucky" to earn the draw vs. Liverpool, but regardless their defense was solid and I expec that to be carried over here. 

The pick: The Wolves looked stout defensively in tehir shutout vs. Everton and with a spot in the Europa League in their grasp, I expect a similar clamp down defensive style here as well. Expect a classic hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring affair here.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER 2.5 -158 Burnley/Wolverhampton.

The set-up: Both teams return to action for the first time since the break. Both teams are completely healthy, except the visitors will be without the services of attacker Will Bruin. Each side will be cautious in my opinion, waiting for the other to make the first mistake.

The pick: This tournament has so far seen some higher-scoring affairs in the early going, but the timing of this contest, combined with the overall situation lead me to believe that we'll finally see a classic, lower-scoring match between these two hungry clubs. 

10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Seattle/Chicago.

The set-up: I had a play on Bournemouth +1 -140 on Thursday and it drew at home with Tottenham 0-0. Yes, the Cherries are now three points behind in relegation, meaning they have to win here to keep their chances alive, but Leicester City comes in equally as motivated, as it lookt to retain a top four spot with Man U breathng down its neck. 

The pick: After crushing Crystal Palace 3-0, the Foxes drew 1-1 with Arsenal last time out, but considering the circumstances and familiarity of venue, I think Leicester could/should in fact be a much larger favorite here. Lay it.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Leicester City.

The set-up: Bournemouth is out to atone for a lacklustre 5-2 setback to Man United last time out, but now it's back at home and it's one behind the relegation zone. It's now or never and I look for the Cherries to take advantage of this Tottenham side which was clobbered 3-1 by Sheffield United, before recovering for a weak 1-0 win over Everton its last outing.

The pick: Further good news for the host team sees the return of attacker Callum Wilson from suspension. I'm laying the short price for the extra goal of insurance here (but definitely wouldn't also be completely shocked by an outright upset in this one either.) 

8* PLAY-BOOK on Bournemouth +1 -140 Pinnacle.

The set-up: Brighton earned a win over the impotent Norwich last time out, but I expect it to come up short here on Matchday 34 vs. this deeper and more talented Liverpool side. The Reds looked "out of sorts" last week, but they still prevailed with a relatively simple 2-0 win over Aston Villa. 

The pick: Liverpool on the road will have to be much sharper this time around and I expect it to be. It's never an easy task winning at Amex Stadium, but Liverpool now has an opportunity to put the icing on the cake and it also welcomes back Robert Firmino to the mix. I'm laying it.

8* COACH'S CORNER on Liverpool.

The set-up: Watford looks to get off the schneid and break its three-game losing streak and there's no better opponent to do that against that Norwich. Watford enters off an uninspired 2-0 loss to Chelsea in London, but now its back at Vicarage Road, ready to face a Norwich City team which fell 1-0 to Brighton in its latest action. 

The pick: Norwich City is also dealing with a rash of injuries (Byram, Hanley, Leitner, and Zimmermann). I'm expecting the Hornets to come out firing out of the gate on their home turf and I look for them to get the job done in regulation.

8* COACH'S CORNER on Watford.

The set-up: Both Leicester and Chelsea dropped points last weekend, but Tottenham will be careful not to do the same. Everton looks primed finally for a "letdown" here after two straight victories and I think that's imminent in this difficult matchup. 

The pick: Jose Mourinho’s will look to control the ebb and flow of this contest and I have a hard time seeing Everton even posting a goal here. Carlo Ancelotti’s men finally come out flat after the rare b2b victories. This one has lower-scoring "under" written all over it.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Tottenham/Everton.

The set-up: Everton is off a 1-0 win over Norwich City and it's gunning for its third straight "clean sheet" here. The Toffee's will be looking to do what they do best here, and that's clamp down defensively and wear out Leicester City by winning the war of attrition. 

The pick: The Foxes enter off a goalless draw with Brighton and I have a hard time seeing City mustering much of an attack here vs. this elite defensive club in Everton. This game has the feel of a "chess match," where each club patiently waits for the other to make the first mistake. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Everton/Leicester City.

The set-up: I think we'll witness a lop-sided blowout here once the smoke finally clears at the end of the night. Tottenham restarted the season with a 1-1 draw with Man U, but now midfielder Dele Alli returns from suspension for the Spurs and I think he'll spell trouble for the Hammers this afternoon. Tottenham can ill afford to let this golden matchup go to the wayside, as it still tries to track down a Champions League spot.

The pick: Westham looked horrible in its 2-0 loss to Wolverhampton in its first game back and I have a hard time seeing it keeping pace with a now focussed, motivated and vastly superior Tottenham side. I think there's big value betting on Mr. Harry Cane and his crew.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Tottenham.

The set-up: It's the Merseyside Derby and I don't expect any upsets here. Liverpool vastly overmatches the home side in every respect today and it needs just two more wins to clinch the trophy for the first time in 30 years. Motivation won't be an issue for the favored side today. 

The pick: Everton hasn't won this game at home in ten years. Nothing is going to change here as I look for the superior and more motivated side to deliver the goods. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Liverpool.

The set-up: Raquel Pennington is 10-8 and Marion Reneau is 9-5-1. Pennington has split her last six fights and she comes off a loss to Holly Holm in January. Note that despite eight losses, Pennington only has been finished in two of those setbacks. Pennington has superior cardio and her striking game is vastly superior to Renau's. Renau has split her last six fights as well and enters off a March 2019 setback to Yana Kunitskaya. 

The pick: While Pennington's fight vs. Holm was highly competitive, Renau was massacred in her loss. Note that Renau is 43 and Pennington is 32. Age is the final deciding factor for me in this matchup and all things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay it with confidence.

8* DESTRUCTION on Raquel Pennington.

The set-up: One team has everything to play for and the other has nothing to play for in its season finale. Leverkusen still has one game to go after this, but it only has a one point lead for the final Champions League spot so it can clearly ill afford to look past Hertha Berlin here this morning. 

The pick: Also note that nine of the last 13 between the clubs have been won by Leverkusen, including a 5-1 win the last time these teams met on this field. Hertha is playing for a spot in the Champions league, it comes in hot and I think it could/should easily be a much bigger favorite in this spot. Lay it.

8* DESTRUCTION on Leverkusen.

The set-up: Man City laid the smack down on Arsenal 3-0 in mid December, but I believe that we'll witness a much tighter affair after the extended break. Arsenal is currently in ninth, but it hasn't lost a league game since the start of the new year and it won its final three matches before the pandemic. Of course Man City is still trying to lock down a Champions League spot, but the Gunners could still move into the Top 4 if they can pull off the outright here. 

The pick: Man City has already dropped four of 13 matches at home this year, which does give the Gunners a glimmer of hope here as well. And finally note that Arsenal has found the back of the net at Etihad Stadium at least once on each of its last seven visits. I'm laying the short price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

10* PLAY OF THE WEEK on ARSENAL +1.5 -115 Pinnacle.

The set-up: These teams played to a 2-2 draw on Decmeber 6th and I expect a similar final result once the smoke clears at the end of this one as well. Hertha had been unbeaten in five games before falling 1-0 to Dortmund last time out, so new Manager Bruno Labbadia will be out to push the pace and get his men back into the winners circle sooner, rather than later. Eintracht Frankfurt is in the German Cup on the 10th, so it will only have two days of rest to prepare.  

The pick: With Hertha pushing the pace, look for Eintracht Frankfurt to take advantage on the backend. Recent history combined with the overall situation that each clubs finds itself coming into this contest makes the "over" the correct call in this one in my opinion.

8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Hertha/Frankfurt (2.5 -163 William Hill).

The set-up: Freiburg still has a shot at Europa League action, but Monchengladbach has a Champions League spot in mind and it's fresh off a 4-1 destruction of Union Berlin and I believe it'll just be too much for Freiburg to hang with. Freiburg enters with zero momentum, having drawn and lost twice since action returned. Gladbach is tied with Leverkusen right now, so it can ill afford to look past this golden opportunity. 

The pick: Alassane Plea and Marcus Thuram combined for three goals for Gladbach last week vs. Union Berlin and I have a hard time seeing Freiburg slowing them down either. Freiburg is back in eighth place right now and it looks ripe for the picking here. No upset here, I like the "better" team to deliver. 

10* COACH'S CORNER on Monchengladbach.

The set-up: Yes the last three UFC main events have seen the underdog come out on top, but I believe that Gilbert Burns' current five-fight win streak comes to an end here vs. Tyron Woodley, the fomer champion. Woodley was last in action in UFC 235 where he was soundly thumped in an unanimous decision vs. Kamaru Usman. Usman still holds that title and if Woodley wants a shot at a rematch, he'll need to focus on Burns here. Burns is clearly no push over, but Woodley is a huge step up in competition here in my opinion. 

The pick: Burns enters off a first-round KO of Demian Maia just two months ago, but Woodley has a sizeable advantage here with a three-inch reach advantage. And while Burns would love to take this to the ground, note that Woodley is incredibly adept at guarding vs. the takedown, as only eight percent of takedown attempts in the UFC have been successful against him. I like the ex-champ to step up here and to finally break this trend of underdogs winning in the main event. Lay it.

8* DESTRUCTION on Tyron Woodley.

The set-up: Schalke has scored just one goal since action has returned and that came in the second half of last week's 2-1 loss. Werder Bremen isn't known for its offensive prowess either, but it's had a bit more success since the action has resumed. When these two teams met on November 23rd, it was Schalke which scored the 2-1 victory, but I expect the re-match to end in a draw. Schalke most recently went to a 0-0 draw with Fortuna Düsseldorf in its last match. Schalke only had two shots on goal in that one and they're now without a home win in their past four league games. Werder Bremen also drew 0-0 in its last match, with Borussia Mönchengladbach. Note that Bremen hasn't lost to Schalke on the road over their last two matches either.

The pick: Yes, none of their last six head-to-head matchups have resulted in a draw, but the recent form of each, combined with the overall circumstances each sides finds itself in coming into this one, makes the DRAW the correct call this time around.

10* DRAW on Schalke/Bremen +240 Pinnacle.

The set-up: These teams are coming off a couple of higher-scoring affairs last weekend, but when they met on November 23rd, they'd lock horns and battle to a 1-1 draw. I believe when the smoke does clear at the end of this one, that we'll see a similar final combined score as well. Freiburg went to a 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt last time out, while Bayer Leverkusen fell 4-1 to Wolfsburg. 

The pick: Over their last six head-to-head meetings, 11 goals have been scored for both sides, which comes out to an average of 1.83 per contest. Expect a similarily hard-fought one here this afternoon and look for this total to stay well below the posted number. 

10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Freiburg/Leverkusen.

The set-up: Fortuna Dussledorf stumbled down the stretch last week and allowed Koln to score two late goals, which earned it a single point in the 2-2 draw. Dusseldorf faltered, but it must still feel vindicated after that performance and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here vs. the struggling FC Schalke 04, which has come out gone scoreless over its first two matches after the break.

The pick: It's do or die, now or never for Schalke though and I expect it to finally step and answer with at least one marker. And then look for Dusseldorf to take care of the rest. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. FC Schalke. 

The set-up: On November 10th Borussia Monchengladbach beat Werder Bremen 3-1 and when the smoke clears at the end of this contest, I expect a similar final combined score as well. Bremen managed a 1-0 win last weekend vs. Freiburg, but the step up in competition will be too much for it to handle, even in its fan-less stadium. 

The pick: Note that the visitor is unbeaten in each of the prior nine clashes between the teams as well and the host is winless at home in all meetings since 2016. Monchengladbach won its first game back from the break, but it'll be extra motivated here after falling 3-1 to Leverkusen at home last time out. I'm banking on this one ending in a lop-sided decision for the visting side and all things considered, a great price.

8* play on Borussia Monchengladbach.

The set-up: Bayer won this matchup 2-0 on November 10th and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect a similar final combined score as well. These are two of the better teams in the league, but Leverkusen's recent form gets carried over here in my opinion. True, Wolfsburg is still battling for a spot in the Europa league, but Leverkusen does indeed come in "red hot," winning 4-1 over Werder Bremen, followed by a 3-1 win at Gladbach on Saturday. 

The pick: Leverkusen has in fact won 14 of its last 16 matches across all competitions. Wolfsburg enters off a humbling setback to Borussia Dortmund and I expect it to falter again here. Lay the short price.

8* play on Bayer 04 Leverkusen. 

The set-up: Bayern won the reverse fixture 4-0 back on November 9th and I expect a similar outcome here as well once it's all said and done. Dortmund has gone 2-0 since play has resumed, taking out Schalke and Wolfsburg, but now it faces its stiffest test year. Bayern Munchen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2 last weekend and it's one step closer to defending its title. No time to take the foot off the gas here obviously facing Dortmund on the road. 

The pick: Signal Iduna Park is widely regarded as one of the nicest futbol stadiums in the World. However, the fans will once again not be in the stands and I do think that definitely favors the powerful visiting side in this matchup. With a chance to go up seven points clear, I look for Bayern Munich to deliver in regulation.

8* play on FC Bayern Munich.

The set-up: Bayer Leverkusen will be set to put the pedal to the metal here as it looks to secure a Champions League spot. Werder Bremen has just 18 points from 24 matches this season and I have a hard time seeing it putting up much of an attack here after the long lay off (the River Islanders have given up the most and scored the least thus far.) Leverkusen owns one of the best defensive units in the league and with RB Leipzig’s slip-up against SC Freiburg, it has a big opportunity to move up in the standings.

The pick: Considering the form of Werder Bremen this year and the overall situation that Leverkusen finds itself in, I'm expecting a lower-scoring battle. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Werder Bremen/Leverkusen.

The set-up: Alistair Overeem is 45-18-0 and the 39 year old weighs 265 pounds. Walt Harris is 13-7-0 in the UFC and the 36 year old weighs 250 pounds. Harris comes off a Round 1 win over Aleksei Oleinik, while Overeem lost by TKO in the fifth round to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. 

The pick: Both fighters are similar in some respect, but I think Harris' power will be too much for Overeem to overcome here. Great that the veteran stepped up to take this fight, but I think the younger and hungrier fighter delivers the goods. I'll lay this reasonable mid-sized price as I expect hard-hitting Harris to get the job done.

10* UFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Walt Harris.

The set-up: These two teams combined for a 0-0 score earlier in the season and after the long layoff, goals could once again be at a premium in this one. That said, I look for Dortmund, the deeper and more talented team in this matchup, to find a way to get the job done once it's all said and done. Note that Schalke has only scored twice in its last seven league games. 

The pick: Dortmund has struggled with consistency as well this season, but the longer lay-off and the home field works in its advantage here and it makes this a price in which I have no worries at all in laying. Lay it.

8* play on Borussia Dortmund. 

The set-up: Both teams have been poor. Hoffenheim is the better team, but it was going through a slump before the break. Hertha is now already onto its fourth manager of the season, so to say it's been struggling as well would be an understatement. Hertha has a big opportunity to get things started off on the right foot here though and I think it'll push the inconsistent Hoffenheim to the limit (Hertha already has two goalless draws this year vs. Schalke and Monchengladbach). 

The pick: I think these teams are evenly matched, but in my opinion, it has "war of attrition" written all over it. Fantastic value for this one to DRAW.

8* play on the DRAW.

The set-up: I think FC Augsburg takes Wolfsburg to the limit here. Augsburg will surely benefit from the break, entering now in 14th spot in the table with just seven wins so far. Last time out it lost 2-0 away to Bayern Munich. Wolfsburg is in seventh spot, but in its last match it drew with RB Leipzig 0-0. 

The pick: In fact note that Wolfsburg has drawn in three of its last five games. The last time these teams met, Wolfsburg smashed Augsburg 8-1 at home. Look for Augsburg to play with a revenge mind and to earn a hard-fought draw once it's all said and done.

8* play on the DRAW.

The set-up: Anthony "Lionheart" Smith is 32-14-0 and is 31 years old, while Glover Texeira is 30-7-0 and 40 years old. Smith beat Alexander Gustafsson by rear naked choke last time out. Glover Texeira is coming off a win as well, getting the better of Nikita Krylov.

The pick: Smith has three inches of reach on his opponent and I believe the younger fighter will ultimately use this major advantage, to his advantage. Lay the price with confidence.

8* play on Anthony Smith.

The set-up: Ovince Saint Preux is 24-13 and Ben Rothwell is 37-12. St. Preux is making the jump up to heavyweight for this fight, most of the time fighting in light heavyweight. He most recently snapped a two-fight losing streak with a win over Michal Oleksijczuk. 

The pick: Rothwell is coming off a win as well, knocking out Stefan Struve. This is a big fight for both fighters, but I like Rothwell, a natural heavyweight, to continue his progression with another quality win here. Great value play in my opinion. 

8* play on Ben Rothwell.

The set-up: Ricky Simon is 15-3, but he's split his last four fights. After a loss to Rob Font in December, I think Simon is going to dig deep into his bag of tricks and find a way to get the job done vs. Ray Borg. Simon is the superior athlete and his ground and pound is by far superior.  

The pick: Borg is 13-4 and he's also split his last four fights, most recently beating Rogerio Bontorin in February. Borg has interestingly missed weight in four of his last eight fights, which brings into question his focus at times. Simon also has a six inch reach over Borg. All things considered, I believe this price could/should be much higher. Lay it.

8* play on Ricky Simon.

The set-up: I'm taking three underdogs in UFC 249. That includes in the main fight of the night between Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson. This is for the UFC Interim Lightweight Championship. Gaethje is 21-2 and he's won ten of his last 12 fights. Gaethje most recently beat Donald Cerrone. In fact, it was Gaethje's third first round knock out in a row. Ferguson is 25-3 and he's won 12 fights in a row. Ferguson also most recently beat Donald Cerrone, back in June. 

The pick: This is a letdown spot for Ferguson though, who was scheduled to fight Khabib originally, but a combination of injury delay and now the virus has him now facing the hungry and red hot Gaethje. With nothing to lose, I like the underdog to deliver the goods in this tite match.

10* play on Justin Gaethje.

The set-up: Dominick Cruz is 22-2 and he's won 64 percent of his fights by decision. Cruz has won 13 of its last 14 fights. Cruz hasn't fought since 2016, when he lost to Cody Garbrandt. Cruz has seen 11 of his last 13 fights go the distance, as his endurance is one of his biggest strengths. 

The pick: Henry Cejudo is 15-2 and he's won just 53 percent of his fights by decision. Cejudo has won five in a row, including a victory over Marlon Moraes last time out. I think the long lay off actually benefits the veteran Cruz. This is his opportunity to get back into contention and I look for him to make the most of it. Cejudo is an accomplished wrestler and his striking has improved, but I think he's over-priced in this matchup.

8* play on Dominick Cruz. 

The set-up: Yorgan De Castro and Greg Hardy are fighting for the UFC Lightweight Championship in this one. Hardy is 5-2-1, but he's split his last six fights, most recently coming off a loss to Alexander Volkov in November. Hardy was completely outclassed from the get-go and I think the ex-football player will have troubles here as well. 

The pick: Yorgan De Castro is 6-0 and he most recently comes off a win over Justin Tafa in October. De Castro is a young fighter, but he's more rounded, especially on the ground. This is a huge opportunity for De Castro and I think he offers great value to pull off the upset vs. over-rated Hardy. 

8* play on YORGAN DE CASTRO.

The set-up: Demian Maia is a legend in Brazil. He takes on Gilbert Burns, his fellow countryman in this fight. Maia is 28-9, while Burns is 17-3. Maia is 42 years old and he enters on a three-fight win streak, finishing Ben Askren in the third round in October, his 14th submission of his career. 

The pick: Burns is on a four-fight win streak himself. Burns is 33 and Maia is 42. Most recently Burns got the better of Gunnar Nelson and his last loss came in July 2018, when he was knocked out by Dan Hooker. Maia though hasn't been finished in a bout since way back in 2009 though and I don't think Burns has what it takes either. I think this one goes to decision and I look for Maia to earn the hard-fought victory.

10* Coachs' Corner on Demian Maia.

The set-up: The schools split a pair of games in the regular season, with each team winning on its home floor. Cal would need to win the Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately for the Bears they come in with zero momentum after two straight losses to end the regular season. Stanford can't take any chances, although its still projected to be within the projected field for The Big Dance. 

The pick: Note that Cal is ranked 318th in the country with an average of 68 possessions per game, while Standford enters ranked 198th in the nation with an average of 70.6 possessions per contest. Neither of these Pac 12 teams pushes the pace, each instead relying on a lot of half court sets while on offense. Expect this one to stay well below the posted number.

10* PAC 12 TOURNAMENT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Cal/Stanford.

The set-up: These teams have played twice this year already and Indiana is 2-0. Both games have been very competitive though and I fully expect a repeat performance of those contests here. Indiana won 96-90 in OT in the first game, while then also winning 82-74 in the second. The Cornhuskers are the worst team in the Big Ten, but Indiana had plenty of issues as well this season. Not only does Nebraska play with revenge here after the two regular season losses, but it'll also be out to play spoiler, as the Hoosiers are definitely on the bubble as far as making the NCAA Tournament is concerned. 

The pick: Nebraska is also already 2-1 ATS in neutral court games this year and 3-1 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Indiana is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous contest. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab as many points as you can.

10* SHOCKER ELITE OF THE ELITE on Nebraska.

The set-up: The situation and the numbers/trends both point to this one falling well below the posted number in my opinion. Philly is 2-0 in the season series so far and looking back finds the Pistons 0-5 the last five in this series. Both teams are hungry to break losing streaks here though and I think that's going to lead to a more defensive affair here. Detroit enters having lost four straight and Philly's gone just 1-3 in its last four. 

The pick: NOte as well that Detroit has seen the total go under in seven of its last 11 road games as an underdog, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games. Expect an all out war here, where every possession is contested and look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Pistons/76ers.

The set-up: Both teams finished 15-15. This is a revenge game for Clemson after it lost 73-68 in OT to the Hurricanes on New Years Eve. The Tigers lost two in a row to end the regular season, while Miami beat Syracuse in OT in its finale. Previous to that though the Hurricanes had lost three straight. Of note, Miami is playing without leading scorer Chris Lykes here, who was injured in a loss vs. Virginia last Wednesday. Clemson has struggled with consistency, but it does have some epic wins, including over Duke, Louisville and Florida State.) 

The pick: Additionally note that Clemson is already 2-0 ATS this year in all neutral court games, while Miami Florida is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court affairs this season. Clemson's defense is ranked 39th in the nation and it plays with revenge here. I love the Tigers in this matchup.

8* HIGH-NOON SPECIAL on Clemson.

The set-up: Sacramento State is 15-14 and Weber State is 12-19. These teams split a pair of games during the regular season, but I still think that the Hornets are the better and ultimately deeper team in this particular matchup. Sacramento State stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but it ranks sixth in the nation in defense by allowing only 59.9 PPG. Weber State lost three of their final four regular season games, allowing an average of 81.7 PPG in the setbacks. 

The pick: Note as well that Sacramento State is 10-4 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and 8-4 ATS this season after playing its last game as an underdog, while Weber State is a poor 1-3 ATS in all neutral cour games this year. I think the Hornets' incredible defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points.

10* BIG SKY TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR on Sacramento State.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams, because if the Playoffs started today, neither would be involved. Phoenix leads the season series 2-1 and this is the final game between the clubs this year. The Suns have taken two in a row, including a 127-117 victory at home on March 6th. I think the finale though sets up as a defensive affair. The Suns have somehow won each of their last two road games and they also finished a four-game homestand on a two game win streak. The Blazers are now nine games under .500 and they've allowed an average of 125 points and 20 triples over the last two games: "It's an understatement to say that we're disappointed with the way that we played in the first quarter, first half," said Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts. "We didn't play like a desperate team, a team fighting for a playoff spot, and it's hard enough to win in this league, much less when you don't compete as hard as you need to compete."

The pick: Note as well that Phoenix has seen the total go under the number in seven of ten this year off a home victory, while Portland has seen the total dip below in four of five this year off a home loss by ten points or more. I think Portland doubles down on the defensive side after getting destroyed the last couple of games. This number is indeed high.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Suns/Blazers.

The set-up: The Pens will be highly motivated to break a scuffling stretch. Most recently Pittsburgh comes in off a 6-2 loss to Carolina. In fact, the Penguins have lost two in a row by a combined score of 11-4. The Pens though only allow 2.85 GPG this season and I expect the visiting side to double down on the defensive end as they attempt to break the slide. The Devils only average 2.69 GPG and they come in having played much better of late by winning three of their last four. 

The pick: The Pens have also seen the total go under the number in four of five this year already after playing to three or more straight "overs," while the Devils have seen the total go under in eight of their last 12 following a win by two goals or more. Considering all of the above factors, I do definitely expect this one to fall under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Pens/Devils.

The set-up: Virginia Tech beat UNC 79-77 in double OT on January 22nd, the only meeting between the schools this season. Both teams ended the regular season with a loss. Both teams disappointed this year overall. Cole Anthony is a lone bright spot for the Tar Heels (19.6 PPG), but beyond him that Tar Heels are very thin. 

The pick: UNC has been a downright disaster for bettors in this spot all year though, going just 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite, while VT has been money in the bank by going 7-3 ATS this year after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a game as a road underdog. I'm expecting an outright win, but I'm grabbing the points as insurance.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Vegas comes in off a 5-3 win in Calgary just last night and I think the Oilers can take advantage of this now tired (and fully contented) visiting side in the second game of the back-to-back. Edmonton is off a convincing 4-1 win at home Columbus and it plays with revenge here after a 3-0 loss in Las Vegas at the end of February. Situationally this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side.

The pick: Note as well that Edmonton is a super 22-15 (+9.9 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Edmonton Oilers.

The set-up: Toronto comes in off a hard-fought win in Sacramento just last night and I think it'll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Jazz are rested and out to avenge a humbling 130-110 loss in Toronto back in December. This is also the final game of a five-game trip in which the Raptors have already posted three straight wins in. From a situational stand point, I definitely believe this one sets up fantastically for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Toronto is a poor 3-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and only 10-14 ATS vs. clubs with winning records, while Utah is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revene a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: The Capitals enter off a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. Buffalo is now officially out of playoff contention this season after six straight losses and setbacks in seven of its last nine. Washington is averaging 3.44 GPG and it's allowing 3.09, while Buffalo is averaging 2.81 GPG and allowing 3.13. 

The pick: Buffalo has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 21 this year after a loss by two goals or more. After the big win over the Pens and with two whole nights off before home games vs. "cream puffs" Detroit and Chicago, I think Washington comes out a bit flat here as well. When you add it all up, I definitely feel this number is high. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Capitals/Sabres.

The set-up: The Cajuns are ranked eighth and the Eagles are ranked fifth. The Cajuns enter off a 73-66 win over Arkansas State in the first round. The Eagles got a bye into the second round, but ended the regular season with a 76-75 loss to Arkansas State. Georgia Southern swept the Cajuns in two meetings this year, with one game going well under, and one going well over. The Cajuns average 73.0 PPG and the Eagles average 75.2. Add those two totals up and you get 148.2. 

The pick: These teams are playing at Georgia Southern today and the last time these schools played here, they totaled 122 points. Both teams are poor shooting teams, as the Cajuns are ranked 284th in the country from thee floor, while the Eagles are ranked 175th. Considering all of the above factors, I expect this total to stay well under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/Georgia Southern.

The set-up: I think the No. 8 Ohio Bobcats are going to have their hands full here vs. the No. 9 CMU Chippewas this evening. CMU plays with revenge after a 77-69 road defeat to Ohio in mid February. The Chips won't be lacking for motivation here. They opened the season 6-2 and then lost nine straight, before then finally posting an 85-68 win over WMU in its finale. CMU has the firepower to match anyone in the conference, as it is in fact the highest scoring team by averaging 78.7 PPG. The Bobcats started 2-7 and then won six of their final nine in conference play. Overall though the Bobcats average only 71.1 PPG this year. 

The pick: Yes the Chips have struggled defensively, but they closed out the regular season on a high-note and I like them to carry that momentum over here. Outright victory is possible, but in the end let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan.

The set-up: Columbus comes in off a terrible 4-1 loss in Edmonton just last night and at this price, I think the Canucks offer great value to post the victory. Vancouver finally broke a four game slide with a 6-3 win over Colorado (one of those four losses was a 5-3 setback at Columbus as well, setting this up as a revenge contest.) The Blue Jackets have three whole nights off after this before home games vs. the Penguins and Predators, so this also sets up as a "look ahead" for the visitors. 

The pick: Note that COlumbus is now just 9-18 (-10.3 units) in non-conference games this year, while Vancouver is 17-11 (+6.3 units) this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest. All things considered, a great price on this one.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Vancouver Canucks.

The set-up: The Suns are desperate for victories. Playing in the packed Western Conference isn't easy and a big win over the East leading Bucks would go a long way in getting th eball rolling. The Bucks on the other hand are coming off a listless loss in LA to the Lakers and they'll be eager to return to form here and take advantage of this poor Suns defense. From a "situational" stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." 

The pick: Despite losing and having the total go "under" the number in LA last time out, note that the BUcks have still seen the total go over the number in 14 of 24 non-conferece games this year. Also note that Phoenix has seen the total go OVER the number in 27 of its last 47 vs. teams which average 106 points or more per contest (Bucks average 118.7 PPG, No. 1 in the league). Expect this one to fly over soon, rather than later.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Bucks/Suns.

The set-up: This is the final day of the Big Ten regular season and I think the home side will find a way to get the job done on Seniors Night. The Terps will be especially motivated here as well after dropping three of their last four. Overall the Wolverines average 75.2 PPG, while allowing 67.8. The Wolverines though are a sub-par 4-6 as the away team this season. Maryland averages 71.4 PPG and it allows 64.3. The Terps though are 15-1 at home this year. 

The pick: Regardless of today's result, both teams will be in The Tournament. It's been a big sucess for Michigan and first year head coach Juwan Howard, but I think the home side continues its brilliant play on its own floor. I expect the No. 1 team in the conference to shake off some recent scuffling play with a signature victory on Sunday afternoon. Lay the points.

10* BLOCKBUSTER on Maryland.

The set-up: Portland comes in off another disappointing loss in Phoenix just last night and I think it'll predictably struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back. Neither team has thrown in the towel yet on the playoffs, but this is a spot that definitely benefits the Kings. Sacramento has a formidable backcourt in Buddy Hield and D'Aaron Fox, who counter Portland's Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. 

The pick: Note as well that Sacramento is 20-12 ATS on the road this year and 20-13 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 100 points or more, while Portland is just 12-17 ATS at home this season and only 14-15 ATS as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points. 

10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Kings.

The set-up: Philadelphia has been playing well, as it enters off a 17-point road win over Sacramento. Golden State has gone through plenty of injury adversity this year and while Stephen Curry is back in the line-up again, I don't think that's going to help in pushing this total over tonight. Philadelphia is without Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, and the last thing it'll want to do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with the upstart Warriors. Philly controlled the game from start to finish vs. the Kings and the result was a resounding victory. 

The pick: Philly has also seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 as a road favorite this year, while GS has seen the total dip below in six of nine this season as a home dog of six points or less. I think this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER 76ers/Warriors.

The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each team. I think this one means a lot more to the Seniors on Xavier as the Musketeers look to avenge a 66-61 road loss to the Butler Bulldogs in February. As primarily a "situational handicapper," this is exactly the type of "situation" and "motivation" I look for when breaking down a contest. Overall Butler averages 68.4 PPG and it allows 61.8. But not only is Xavier hungry to avenge the loss to Butler on Senior night, but it's still in a fight for one of the final spots in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Most recently the Musketeers fell 80-74 to Providence, making this a "must win" game for all intents and purposes. Overall Xavier averages 70.8 PPG and it allows 67.3. 

The pick: Xavier is 16-4 in its last 20 at home and 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games as well. I think Xavier pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier. 

The set-up: These are two of the best teams, not only in the Eastern Conference, but in the entire league. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the league, but they're also filled with offensive talent. Honestly, it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either the "over" or the "under" in this game. So why do I think this one is going to fly over the number this time? 

The pick: Tampa is ranked among the league leaders on offense on the road and Boston is one of the best offenses when at home. Finally note that TB has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 this year following a win by two goals or more in its previous contest, while Boston has seen the total go over in four of its last five after playing three straight on the road. Play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Bolts/Bruins.

The set-up: This is the second game of a home and home set. The Predators won the first one at home by a score of 2-0, snapping a three-game skid. Dallas has now lost four straight and I believe it'll risk life and limb here to try and avenge the loss in Nashville, while also breaking the slide. Nashville averages 3.16 GPG and it allows 3.09, while Dallas averages 2.63 GPG, while allowing 2.52. Clearly the margin for error is very slim for both teams on most nights, but situationally I think this one sets up fantastically for the home side and it definitely makes this a price in which I have on issues at all in laying. 

The pick: Note as well that Nashville is already just 2-3 (-1.3 units) this year after shutting out its opponent in its last game, while Dallas is 17-12 (+3 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. I'm banking on a big time win for the Stars here. 

10* NHL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Dallas Stars.

The set-up: It's senior night for Georgetown. The Hoyas enter having lost five straight and with nothing to lose, I think the home side does in fact play with pride as it tries to pull off the big upset on national TV. Overall the Wildcats average 73.3 PPG and htey allow 66.3, while the Hoyas average 75.3 PPG and allow 74. 

The pick: Note as well that Villanova is just 3-7 ATS this year after plyaing three straight conference contests, while Georgetown is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive losses. Look for this one to come down to the wire and grab as many points as you can.

8* PLAY-BOOK on Georgetown.

The set-up: This is a matchup of the 8th and 9th seeds in the Sun Belt Tournament and when the smoke does finally clear, I expect this total to stay under the posted number. These teams split a pair of games this year, each winning on its home floor. The Red Wolves won 79-67 in December and then the Cajuns returned the favor with a 77-74 win in February. While both of those games went OVER the number, I do now finally feel that this conference contest will be more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: And the numbers/trends support that theory as well, as note that Arkansas State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten tournament games when the total is set at 150 or higher, while UL Lafayette has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 Conference Tournament home games as a favorite in the -2.5 to -5.5 points range. Expect each team to double down defensively now that it's Tournament time and a one and done format.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Arkansas State/UL Lafayette.

The set-up: Colorado's 4-3 loss to Anaheim last time out snapped a seven-game winning streak. Vancouver is looking to snap a streak of its own, as the Canucks enter on a four-game slide. These are two of the best in the Western conference and each is looking to bounce back. From a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive goaltenders battle, than a wide-open "shootout." Overall Colorado averages 3.41 GPG, while allowing just 2.67, while the Canucks average 3.23 GPG and allow 3.11. 

The pick: Vancouver will be playing with extreme desperation here as it looks to get into shooting and passing lanes from the opening tip until the final horn. Expect these two Western Conference heavyweights to under once it's all said and done.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Avs/Canucks.

The set-up: I like the Thunder to finally get back on track here in this favorable situation. After losses to the Bucks and Clippers, OKC bounced back with a win over Detroit last time out. New York won two in a row, but then it returned to form with a listless loss to the Jazz at home last time out. OKC averages 110.6 PPG and New York allows 112.0, while the Knicks average just 105.4 PPG, while the Thunder allow 108.5. 

The pick: Note as well that OKC is 21-8 ATS on the road this year and 4-1 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games, while New York is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 after playing three straight at home. I think the Knicks "go through the motions" here in this non-conference matchup, while I look for the visitors to take full advantage of another favorable matchup. Lay the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each. I'm basing this play most only the "revenge angle," as Georgia Tech posted the 68-59 home victory in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. The Yellow Jackets won't be participating in any tournaments this year because of a ban, so this is a meaningless game to them. Overall Georgia Tech averages 68.7 PPG and it allows 66.6. The Tigers average 66.9 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing only 63.9. 

The pick: Not only does Clemson play with revenge on Seniors Night, but note that Georgia Tech is 0-14 on the road in its last 14 in this series (the Tigers have won those games by an average of 10.1 points). Georgia Tech has lost four of its last five on the road and I expect the home side to take full advantage.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on Clemson.

The set-up: The Beavers upset the Cardinal by five on the road earlier in the season and I believe they'll find a way to do it again on their own floor tonight. The home side will be looking to play spoiler here on Seniors Night, as Stanford comes in having won four straight and on the verge of punching its ticket to The Big Dance. The Beavers are desperate to stop a four-game slide of their own and while they'll likely need to win the Conference tournament now to get an invite, there's still plenty to play for here for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Stanford is already 0-2 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, while Oregon State is a sharp 9-5 ATS at home this season. I'm laying the points on the hungrier home side on Seniors night.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon State.

The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I'm expecting a wide open affair here and I expect this total to soar over sooner, rather than later. The Bruins have won three in a row and only given up four goals in the process. The Panthers on the other hand have lost three in a row and five of six. The Panthers defense is a mess, coming in ranked 29th in the league in GAA. The Panthers have a strong offensive attack though, as they have five players with at least 20 goals, led by Mike Hoffman (27). I think the home side plays with wreckless abandon here as it tries to get off the schneid. 

The pick: Note as well that Florida has seen the total go over in 12 of 18 vs. the division this year and in five of seven when playing with three or more days rest. As I mentioned off the top, I expect a wide-open, faster-paced "shootout" in this one.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Bruins/Panthers.

The set-up: The Nuggets have won three of their last four, but after a straight up loss at home to the Warriors as 15 point favorites, clearly they'll be out to atone for that pathetic performance and take out their frustrations on the defensively challenged Hornets. Denver earned the 100-86 win at home over Charlotte earlier in the season, but I'm predicting a much faster-paced, up-tempo style of play today and I expdect this total to fly over as it comes down the stretch. 

The pick: Neither teams plays at a fast pace, but I think the value has swung to the higher-number here. Note as well that Denver has seen the total go over in both games that it's played in this year off a double digit loss as a favorite of six points or more (supporting my theory above that the visitors will be out to atone for their truly embarrassing performance vs. Golden State), while Charlotte has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven off a cover where it lost the game SU as an underdog. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Nuggets/Hornets.

The set-up: Utah enters having won two straight. It crushed New York 128-104 at home earlier in the year, but I'm expecting a much more methodically paced affair this evening. Utah averages 112.7 PPG and it allows 109.5, while the Knicks average only 106.1 points per 100 possessions. New York has looked better of late, having posted two straight victories, but I think a return to medocrity is imminent here facing this tough defensive non-conference opponent tonight. 

The pick: Note as well that Utah has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games, while New York has seen the total dip below in 14 of 23 already this season when the total in the contest is set at 220 or higher. I think the Jazz slow the pace of this one down whenever possible and because of that, I look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Jazz/Knicks.

The set-up: The Pacers beat the Bucks in their final game before the All Star break. Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that contest though and I think he's going to come out and play with a chip on his shoulder this evening. Both teams have won four of their last five, but the Bucks come in off a loss in Miami, one night after winning in Charlotte. Milwaukee averages 119.1 PPG and it allows 106.8, while Indiana averages 109.4 PPG and it allows 107.2. 

The pick: Milwaukee is almost always a big favorite, but I think it's going to easily cover this larger spread tonight, as note that it's 5-0 ATS in its last five at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after a SU loss of ten or more points. The stage is set for a 20 point blowout victory here. I'm laying the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Milwaukee Bucks.

The set-up: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it's high-flying offense and high-scoring games. While each team has played to many "overs" of late, I think the conditions are now finally correct for more of a defensive goaltenders battle. Philadelphia averages 3.31 GPG and it allows 2.85, while Washington averages 3.42 GPG and it allows 3.03. 

The pick: Note though that Philly has already seen the total go under the number in ten of 16 this year when playing with two days rest, while Washington has seen the total dip below in eight of 13 this season in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. I think the value has finally swung to the lower number here.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Flyers/Capitals.

The set-up: I think 17-10 Siena is going to lay the smackdown on 11-18 Niagara. This is a revenge game for the Saints after the Purple Eageles somehow managed a SU outright, 1-point win over the Saints. Niagara has won four of its last six games, while Sienna has won seven of its last ten. 

The pick: The Purple Eagles though for the most part have been terrible defensively, allowing their opponents to hit at a 46 percent rate from the floor. The Saints on the other hand have turned up the pressure defensively of late and I look for that trend to carry over here vs. this poor Niagara offense (note that the Saints have given up an average of just 60 points in their last seven conference contests.) The Saints are also 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. I'm laying the points here and expecting a blowout of epic proportions.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Siena. 

The set-up: In this battle between 15-13 Clemson and 15-14 Virginia Tech, I think that the "home court advantage" will be significant for the Hokies tonight. VT has to be feeling confident here as well, as it already beat the Tigers on their own floor earlier in the season. Both teams have big victories on the season, but each has looked downright terrible at times as well. 

The pick: And after losing nine of its last ten, I absolutely believe that Virginia Tech is the "hungrier" team in this fight, especially considering that the Tigers enter off an improbable last-second upset over Louisville! Can anyone say letdown spot?! Each team is playing for pride for the most part here, but VT is desperate on Seniors Night. Lay the short points.

10* ACC BEST OF THE BEST on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Both teams are "hungry" for a win after three straight losses. But Phoenix is at home and it has the motivation of "revenge" as well after falling in Toronto earlier in the year. Toronto has been dealing with injuries to several key players all year and now guard Fred VanVleet is questionable tonight as well. Kelly Oubre has been lost for the season for Phoenix, but this one sets up perfectly for the Suns tonight in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Toronto is just 2-4 ATS this year after allowing 120 points or more in its previous contest and interestingly a poor 21-23 ATS this year vs. teams which allow 106 points or more per game, while Phoenix is a solid 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. I'm expecting an outright win here for the home side, but I'm going to grab the points in the end.

10* NON-CONF ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: These are not only two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but they're two of the best in the entire NHL. Both are similar, as they're loaded with depth on the offensive end, while also possessing strong defensive units and goaltending. This pick for the most part for me is based on some very strong O/U ATS trends/stats. 

The pick: As note that Boston has seen the total go UNDER the number in 15 of 24 this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while TB has seen the total dip below in five of seven this year when playing with two days rest. I'm banking on a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring goaltenders battle once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Boston/Lightning.

The set-up: After winning seven straight and opening up a three-game road trip here, I believe the defending champs finally have a letdown in the Big Apple tonight. New York plays with revenge here after it fell 5-2 in St. Louis earlier in the season. New York had won five in a row, before back-to-back losses to the Flyers in a home and home set. The Rangers still have a shot at the playoffs, but they no longer have the luxury to look past anyone in the jam-packed Metropolitan. After a 4-3 shootout win over the Stars last time out though, I think the Blues do indeed finally have a letdown here vs. this desperate home side. Situationally everything sets up beautifully for the home side here. 

The pick: The Rangers are only six points behind third place Pittsburgh and note that they're 11-7 (+6.7 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. The stage is set for the minor upset in this one.

10* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on the New York Rangers.

The set-up: Michigan State enters having won three straight, while Penn State enters off a road loss to Iowa. The Hawkeyes failed to cover for a fourth straight game and clearly the home side will be eager to return to form here. The Spartans have two players scoring in double figures and they average 75.7 PPG and they allow 64.4. Penn State also has two players scoring in double figures and it averages 75.4 PPG and it allows 67.4. Both teams play at a faster pace than the average NCAA tempo and I expect an all out war from start to finish. 

The pick: Note as well that Michigan State has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten conference road games after a three-games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. I think the Nittany Lions come out and push the pace and MSU will have to match that tempo. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER MSU/Penn State.

The set-up: The Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tournament, but they won't want to take the foot off the gas now with just two games left in the regualr season. USF is just 6-10 in AAC action. The only way the Bulls are going to The Dance is if they can somehow win the conference tournament, and obviously that's not going to happen. I think the Bearcats can "smell the blood in the water" and I look for them to deliver the knock out blow to the home side's hopes tonight. The Bearcats can lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament today and I expect them to play with desperation from the opening tip, until the final horn. 

The pick: Note as well that Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as a favorite in the -1.5 to -4.5 points range. The Bearcats are deeper, more talented and are the "hungrier dog" in this fight. I'm laying the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Cincinnati.