LA Angels (Suarez) vs. Cleveland Indians (Quantrill)

The Angels and Indians are very evenly matched teams at the moment, right down to the pair of young relievers turned starters on the mound on Sunday. Neither team is completely out of contention, but at 5-5 last 10 will need to get a move on if either teams wants to make a play for the post season. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill (3.24) has been very effective since making the move to starter. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.76 in his last seven starts and has stretched himself out to an average of 6 innings per outing. He hasn’t had much support but is backed by a solid pen that has been even better than average in their last 7 games.

Jose Suarez’ transition to starter has not been quite as easy. He is 2-5 with an ERA of 5.45 in his last seven games, and struggles facing left-handed batters. His starts are somewhat shorter at around 5 innings, but he will be supported by a recently improved pen.

After sweeping the Tigers, it looked like LA had some momentum, but they lost two straight vs Cleveland and have been limited to a total of 2 runs. Is this scoring drought to continue? Cleveland hasn’t the highest run output and with Quantrill on the mound, I believe the score will stay low. Take the Angels and Indians to go under the total.

Marlins (Alcantara) vs Reds (Gutierrez)

The light hitting and struggling Marlins have lost three in a row to the Reds and look to Sandy Alcantara for some return to good fortune. Considering Miami’s bullpen of late, Alcantara (7-11, 3.87) may need a complete game for a win on Saturday. Other than a terrible effort in Coors Field, Alcantara is capable of such a start. In his past two outings he has given up only 1 run in 15 innings total. His run support from the Marlins has been dismal.

His mound opponent is the other Vladi. Gutierrez (8-4,3.87) may not have the batting chops, but he has delivered as a starter. In 18 innings pitched over 3 starts, he has limited the opposition to 4 ER total. He can’t rely on the Reds’ bullpen, which as been pretty awful of late.

All of the offensive stats favor the Reds. Miami is low on average, slugging, and run production. They are 12-23 as a road dog, 21-42 on the road and have never face Gutierrez before.

I like the total to go under, and have been very sharp with them of late. The Marlins and the Red relief has been in tatters lately, so take the Under in the first five innings.

Diamondbacks (Gallen) vs Rockies (Freeland)

Here are two underachieving teams who have made good recently. Arizona and Colorado face each other in the second game of their series. The D-backs’ recent success hasn’t included any Zac Gallen starts. He is 0-4 in his last 7 starts and is running dangerously close to the ignoble run per inning stat. He has a paltry 3-12 team record and struggles both on the road and vs right handed batters. Starting for Colorado, Freeland (4-6, 4.40) has improved dramatically since the start of the season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.94 in August, very good at home, and has really only had one bad outing since the beginning of July.

Both bullpens have been poor this season, but Colorado’s has shown marked improvement with a collective ERA of 2.94 in their last 7 starts.

Probably the most significant stat regarding this game are the Diamondbacks’ road woes. They are 9-24 on the road, and their recent success has come at home. They are also a startling 9-24 against left handed pitching. The Rockies are surprisingly good at home in Coors Field, and a very good home favorite at 42-21 this year.

I haven’t had much success with the spread lately but this is one game where the extra runs are justified. Take the Rockies -1.5.

Giants (Gausman) vs Atheletics (Manaea)

The Giants are on the road this week. In first in their division and with an 8-2 record, they ought to be breathing easy, but the Dodgers are right behind them. Oakland has been less than overpowering of late and find themselves falling behind the Astros. Both starters have not been their best in August. Gausman (12-5, 2.40) slipped in effectiveness in July but seems to have righted the ship. He has 3 wins in his last three starts and has been superlative on the road, throwing to the tune of 6-2 with an ERA of 1.55. Manaea’s trouble seem to be of a more serious nature. He is now 8-8 with an ERA of 3.77, and has been giving up more than an ER per inning in his last three starts.

Oakland’s usually dependable relievers have also slipped lately. The Giants’ bullpen has been very good on the road, and excellent in their last 7.

The Giants have a lot going for them: a very good run differential of 1.18 (as compared to Oakland’s at .57), a 36-24 road record and a 22-16 record against lefties. While Oakland needs this game more than the Giants, I think it is far more likely that Gausman, rather than Manaea, will step up on Saturday.

Take the Giants to win outright.

White Sox (Giolito) vs Rays (Wacha)

The team record for a given pitcher is a curious stat. Lucas Giolitto is 9-9 with a good ERA of 3.83, pitching for a very strongWhite Sox team. His team record? 11-13. Michael Wacha is 2-4, and has struggled most of the season, with a 5.91 ERA. Team Record? 10-6. Part of Wacha’s success is due to Tampa’s novel and successful use of their bullpen. Compared to the White Sox, the Rays’ relievers average an extra inning per game over the course of the season. Lately the bullpen has accounted for an average of more than half the Rays’ total innings. And with a collective ERA of 2.68, is it really any surprise?

Wacha has been pretty poor in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 and has given up 18 earned runs in 14 innings. Needless to say we cannot expect a long outing out of him. Giolito has had only one bad start since mid-July, and is capable of good length in his starts. Against Wacha, it may be the day that Giolito gets some run support.

These are two division-leading teams, but the White Sox have been struggling at 5-5 last ten. They are not the best road team, but they are very solid against right-handed pitching. The Rays are 7-3, a terrific home team and very effective against right handed pitching.

I hate betting against the Rays, so I won’t. They always seem capable of turning a sandwich into a banquet somehow. I am looking at the total. At 9, Wacha on the mound, two very good offenses, I think it is low. Take the White Sox and Rays to go over the total.

Royals (Keller) vs Cubs (Davies)

If you took a look at these teams’ last three games, you could be forgiven for doing a double take, as the Cubs took 2 of 3 from the Reds, and the Royals took 2 of 3 from the Astros. So what are we to expect from these two recently rejuvenated cellar-dwellers. With Keller and Davies on the mound, it is not likely to be low scoring. The Cubs starter Davies was good in his last start vs Miami, but gave up a pair of sevens in his previous 2 starts, lasting only 6 innings total. Brad Keller (7-12, 5.69) has been somewhat better of late, keeping his Era to a respectable 3.61 over his last 7 starts. He hasn’t faced most of the Cubs’ hitters.

Don’t look for a lot of relief for Davies. The Cubs bullpen has an ERA of 7.07. KC’s has been much better.

The offensive stats are not positive for either team. KC is 20-37 on the road and 32-49 against right handers. The Cubs are not a bad road team for the season, but are much worse of late. They are 3-7 in inter-league play and 37-51 against right-handed pitchers. I prefer Keller here. Their recent success vs. the Red notwithstanding, the Cubs have been pretty dismal since the trade deadline. Th bullpen record is pretty telling. Take the Royals to win outright.

Milwaukee (Woodruff) vs st. Louis (Lester)

The Brewers meet the Cards for the second game of their series on Thursday. Off a loss, St Louis starts Jon Lester (9-10), 5.32). Lester is coming off a terrific start, pitching into the 6th and allowed only one run, but this has not been the norm. In his previous two outings, he gave up more runs than innings pitched. Woodruff, (7-6, 2.18) for the Brewers has been excellent all season, if a bit hard luck. He has given up 4 runs in his last three starts, but has suffered from a lack of run support.

Both starters are familiar to the opposing batters and have struggled to some extent. Milwaukee’s bull pen has not been as sharp as usual, while the Cardinals’, other that their closer, has been solid. Milwaukee has some impressive road stats, but St Louis is no pushover at home. Both teams have been successful of late.

I have great respect for Woodruff, but he was wild enough last start to have it cut short at 3 innings. I doubt that Lester has two dominating starts in a row in him. The total is low for Thursday’s game. Take the Total to go Over.

Astros (Garcia) vs Kansas City (Minor)

Off three straight losses and with the A’s just a couple of games back, Houston can no longer be comfortable. I am sure that losing the first two games to the lowly Royals was not in the plans. Luis Garcia (9-5, 3.32) starts for the Astros. It would be incorrect to say that he is struggling; after all he pitched 6 shut-out innings only 2 starts ago. Still, he is 3-2 with a 4.33 era in his last seven starts, and hasn’t shown as well on the road. He will be supported by a highly motivated, very potent offense and a sharp set of relievers.

Mike Minor (8-11, 5.35) starts for KC. He is 2-5 in his last seven, but can still deliver the innings; he has allowed 11 runs in 18 innings in his hast three starts.

The Astros are a far better hitting team and have had their way with Minor in the past. They are 14-9 as a home favorite. The Royals have done well as a road underdog and have never faced Garcia. Houston is a heavy favorite. It is hard to imagine the Astros losing three straight against the Royals, but it is the total that attracts me in this game. Neither starter has been especially sharp, and I can’t imagine the Astros’ big bats not making their presence known on Thursday. Take the total to go over.

Milwaukee (Burns) vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)

The ‘old feller’ of the Cards starting rotation is on the hill and has he ever been grand. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27) shows no sign of slowing down; in fact he threw a 9 inning 2 hit shutout his last start. He has been remarkably consistent, terrific at home, and 5-1 in his last 7 starts. His opponent, Corbin Burns (7/4, 2.23) is hardly an old man, but has been pretty grand himself. At 4-0 and 2.06, he has been exceptional on the road, and 3-0 post all-star break.

Both teams are surging at 7-3 (Mil.) and 8-2 (Cards), and are off wins. The Brewers pen has struggled slightly, the Cards’ has been sharp, although these starters have a history of long starts. Milwaukee has the nod in offense, and has an exceptional road record.

The total is very low today, but if there was to be a game with a low score this is it. Take the Brewers and Cards to go under the total.

Cubs (Hendricks) vs Reds (Gutierrez)

Crushed by the Reds on Monday, it is a long time since the Cubs have won a game. Their usually dependable ace Kyle Hendricks was absolutely shelled by the Braves in his last start. It is hard to say if he is likely to bounce back, but I am betting that that is a pretty demoralized dugout. With the lamentable Cubs bullpen (8.78 collective ERA last seven games), it will likely take a complete game effort for a win.

The Reds took two of three vs. the Phillies, and are probably breathing easier after back to back series against the NL East leaders. They have Gutierrez (8-3, 3.95 ERA) on the mound. I am not sure if there is a hotter pitcher at the moment. He is 5-0, with an ERA in his last 7 starts, and has the benefit of a new improved Reds bullpen for support.

The Cubs’ woes are reflected in their stats. Here is one; 7-26 as a road underdog. Need I say more?

The Reds are 10-4 as a home favorite. Their offense is hot, and even facing Hendricks, I am betting on them to win. Take the Reds to win outright.

Indians (Quantrill) vs. Twins (Jax)

The Indians and Twins open a series today with a pair of young and talented starters on the mound. Griffin Jax (2-1, 4.36 ERA) is in his fifth start of the season, but has pitched well enough that his traveling days back and forth to Triple A are likely over. In his brief career he has faced the White Sox twice and the Astros, and come out relatively unscathed. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing 5 runs in 16 innings pitched. He has struggled against right-handed pitching.

Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.65 ERA) didn’t start a game until the end of May, but has pitched very well since. He is 3-0 in his last seven starts with a very impressive 1.71 ERA.

The Twins are playing well at the moment at 7-3, and have had effective relief pitching of late. The Indians, at 5-5 have been struggling, and their usually sharp pen has tanked lately. It is tough to call a winner in this game, but I am confident in the total. Both starters are now capable of longish starts, and the total has been consistently under in their appearances. I am looking for this game to continue the trend. Take the Under today.

A’s (Montas) vs. White Sox (Keuchel)

Yes, I admit it. You may have read in one of Rogers’ write-ups that in a fit of pique, Frankie Montas (9-8, 3.98) was referred to as a ‘gas-bag’. These words and my opinion of him have bitten me several times since. Montas struggled in June but has been sharp of late, with an ERA of 2.61 since the all-star break. He has been especially good on the road and has an absolute ton of strikeouts in his past few games. He is backed by an equally effective bullpen, with a collective ERA of 1.67.

The Sox’ Dallas Keuchel (7-6, 4.48) has not been as sharp. While I will draw the line at calling him names, he is 0-3 since the all-star break with an ERA of 5.40.

The White Sox have one of the larges run differentials in the MLB, but they are riding a mini slump, having lost 4 of 5. They have a negative record when facing the AL West. Off a rare loss yesterday, the A’s are 8-2 in their last ten games. They are 27-16 vs left-handed starters and a very good road team. They are also 16-4 vs the AL central division.

A’s are basically a pick today, and are my choice in this game. Take Oakland to win outright.

Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Angels (Detmers)

This could be a mismatch. The Astros have Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound facing Reid Detmers in just his third start. Detmers struggled mightily in his first 2 starts, and has a 10.61 ERA in his brief career. I am sure he is a better pitcher than those stats would imply, but facing the formidable Astros lineup might be too much of a challenge today. McCullers is 9-3 with an ERA of 3.22. While he has a 7-0 away record, he has not been quite as sharp lately.

What has been sharp is the Astros’ bullpen (1.42 collective ERA), in large contrast to the Angels’ relief efforts (6.23 ERA last 7). The Astros have the most potent offense and the largest run differential in the MLB. They are 14-7 as a road favorite. The Angels, off a pair of losses to the Astros, can scores runs but pale in comparison to Houston.

Obviously Houston is a favorite; it is more a question of by how much they will win. Considering Detmer’s past results, the Angels’ poor bullpen and The Astro’s power, I am looking for this game to go over the Total.

Braves (Smiley) vs Nationals (Espino)

Atlanta is hot, and the Nationals, not.. Now there is an understatement. Washington was hammered 12-2 yesterday and is en-mired in a 1-9 slump. The Braves at 8-2 now have a share of the lead in the NL East. The Nationals look to Paolo Espino (3-2, 3.74) to break out of this dreadful slump, but I am not sure he is up to the task. An occasional starter most of the season, Espino has been a regular starter lately, hashad some very short starts, a poor ERA since the all-star break and a 4-6 team record.

On the mound for Atlanta is Drew Smily (8-2). After starting very poorly, the lefty has turned his season around. Smily knows how to pitch, and with a team record of 12-8, his teammates give him plenty of support. His last start was a 6 inning 2 run effort.

Neither pen has been especially sharp. Atlanta is 10-5 as a road favorite. The Nationals are only 13-21 against left handed starters, and have been heavily outscored by opposing teams.

It is obvious that the Nationals have nothing to play for. The Braves have a legacy of winning divisions and could be well on their way to another one. I don’t think Espino is the man to stop the bleeding for Washington. Take the Braves to win.

Dodgers (Beuhler) vs Mets (Walker)

Out in the NL West, the Dodgers have lost ground on the Giants, and aren’t even that secure vs. San Diego. A couple of wins against the Mets would help things along. The Mets have their own woes. At 4-6 in their last ten games, they are in danger of falling out of contention in the NL East. At one point in this season, Taijuan Walker was just the pitcher they would want on the mound today, but ever since the all-star break he has struggled mightily. He is 1-4 in that period and his ERA has ballooned to 7.67.

He faces the mighty Walker Beuhler, (12-2, 2.13) a consistent force for the Dodgers all season long. He is very good at home, in fact there really are no negatives in his season, other than, at a team record of 15-8, the Dodgers haven’t always given him the run support he deserves.

Earlier in the season, the Mets’ mantra seemed to be score few runs, allow fewer. This has changed of late; after struggles with both starting pitching and relief and no significant improvements in offense, the Mets now allow more runs than they score. In the Dodgers they face a team with a fine bullpen (1.59 collective ERA in their last 7 games) and one of the premier offenses in the league. Everything points to a Dodgers’ win, even the day of the week. The Dodgers are 15-4 when playing on Saturdays!

The Dodgers are a favorite today but the odds are not that onerous. I think they are good for a couple of runs vs. New York. Considering the Mets’ soft hitting and Taijuan Walker’s woes, take the Dodgers at -1.5.

Reds (Castillo) vs. Philadelphia (M. Moore)

The Reds are just out of the NL East frying pan (Braves) and into a series with the fire (Philadelphia), but are holding their own. They are 7-3 and well in the frame for a wildcard spot. Luis Castillo (6-11, 4.53 ERA) is starting. Castillo started very poorly this season and then turned things around through June and July. His last start was a reversion to the dark side, but he is 3-1, 3.32 ERA in his last seven starts.

Matt Moore is a shadow of his former self at 1-3 and 6.79 ERA. He was extremely poor in his last start, has been poor at home and very poor against right-handers. Not good against a powerhouse left-handed eating offense like the Reds. Even when Moore is on, you can’t expect more than 4 innings.

The Reds’ new improved bullpen will likely have much less work than the indifferent Phillies relief corp as Castillo will generally give 6 innings per start.

Motivation is not an issue with either team. Cincinnati is a decent road team. The Phillies are good at home but poor vs the NL Central league. The Phillies are definately outgunned by the Reds. I am wagering that Castillo reverts to form, and the Reds win the second game of the series. Based on Moore’s record, I think that the Reds are good for a couple of runs. Take the Reds -1.5

Jays (Ray) vs Mariners (Flexen)

The Jays are on a roll at 8-2, hitting a ton, starters going well, and with a restructured bull pen. The Mariners are 5-5, and spinning their wheels a bit. There are two very good starters today. Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.81) has possibly lost a little of the luster on his season with some up and down starts but he is still 4-2 in his last seven starts with a 3.51 ERA. When last facing Flexen, the Jays won by a wide margin 0f 9-3. Three starts ago, against a team with similar offense, the Astros, Flexen was pummeled.

Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.90) has been rock-solid for the Jays. In his last three starts, he has pitched 6 innings per start, giving up a total of 4 runs. Ray has found his control and is formidable on the mound.

Both bullpens have been better than average of late. Toronto’s was very suspect but seems to have turned a corner. The big difference between these two teams is in run production. Toronto exceeds Seattle in every offensive category. The Jays are very good vs right-handed pitching, while Seattle struggles vs the left.

I like Ray and the Jays in this situation. Seattle’s ballpark has been like a second home to them, although with covid protocols this series will not be quite the same. None the less, take the Jays to win outright.

Reds (Mahle) vs Phillies (Wheeler)

Off a pair of losses, the Phillies solved the Dodger problem, winning by the slimmest of margins on Thursday. Thanks to an 8-2 record they now lead the NL East by a half a game. The Reds broke out against the Braves in a big way, and come to Philadelphia in the hunt for a wild card spot.

Zack Wheeler is starting on Friday, and has he been hot! Off a 2 hit complete game shutout and a pair of 7 inning efforts vs the Nationals, he is 4-2 and an ERA of 2.90 in his last 7 starts. He has been sharp all year and especially solid at home.

Tyler Mahle might not have quite the ERA at 3.78 but he has an enviable record of 9-3. He averages 5+ innings a start and has won 2 of 3, giving up 6 ER in that time. While his ERA has slipped a bit since the break, he is 6-1 on the road.

By the stats, the Phillies have had the superior pen, but the Reds have reloaded and have been very sharp with a collective relief ERA of 2.22 last 7.The Phillies can’t match that record, and in the last three games, their pen has been outright poor and heavily overused.

The Reds are a very good road team. They have a potent offense and handle right- handed pitching very well. They have a 9-5 record as a road underdog. Phillies are a great home team, and it is hard to bet agaisnt Wheeler, but the Philadelphia bullpen really concerns me. The Reds are a significant underdog and I like Mahle in this situation, but applying the ‘Zack” factor, I’m wagering on the Reds +1.5. 

Yankees (Heaney) vs White Sox (Lynn)

MLBaseball is in Iowa at the ‘field of dreams’ stadium on Thursday. My question: who hits it into the corn? If I had to bet, it won’t be off Lance Lynn. Lynn has been a force for the White Sox and shows no sign of tiring down the stretch. He is good pitching on the road, and has a 1.85 ERA in his last seven starts. Other than Judge, the Yankees haven’t had much luck against him.

Andrew Heaney (7-8, 5.45) starts for the Yankees. Heaney was inspired somewhat in his second start for the Yankees, lasting 6 innings and striking out 9, but he still gave up 4 runs. He has a 7.20 ERA since he arrived in New York.

The Yankees have been recharged in their last dozen games with all of the additions at the deadline, but looking at their injured list, it is a wonder they can field a team. Between injuries and covid protocol the team has been decimated. They have not been an offensive powerhouse this year but did add significantly via trades. They are strong on the road, and strong against the right. Their bullpen is very good, although Chapman is now on the DL.

The White Sox, off a pair of losses, will be loading for bear tomorrow. They score a lot and only give up a few runs. Their bullpen was very good and then they reloaded at the trade deadline. Their powerful offense match up well with lefties.

All eyes will be on Iowa on Thursday so it is a very public game. I am wagering on the Whitesox to show up and excel. Lance Lynn is a couple of steps up the quality ladder from Heaney, and the White Sox will out muscle the depleted NewYork cohort. White Sox to win.

Reds (Gutierrez) vs Braves (Muller)

The Atlanta Braves, 8-2 and in a dead heat for first in the NL East, have taken 2 of 3 against the Reds. The Reds, also in a position for a wild card spot, were also a roll until meeting up with Atlanta. Today it is Gutierrez vs Muller, a good young rookie for Atlanta. Muller’s last start was not his best and he does have some control issues. He is 1-1 since the all-star break with a 2.41 ERA.

Gutierrez (7-3,4.15 ERA) has been very successful for the Reds of late. He is 3-0, allowing only 4 ER in 19+innings in his last 3 starts. The Reds bullpen is much improved, with a collective ERA of 2.22 in their last 7 games, and Gutierrez has been lasting late into games. Atlanta’s pen has also been solid of late, but has been called upon more than usual. Muller has yet to pitch more than 5 innings.

Both teams are strong in offense, but the Reds still have the upper hand. They have a very good road record, are good against lefties. Atlanta has not been the best at home, and actually struggles more against right-handed starters.

The Reds are an underdog here, but this game is at least as important to them as the Braves. I like Gutierrez in this start. Lets take the dog for a run. I am wagering on the Reds to win outright!

Oakland A’s (Montas) vs Cleveland Indians (Quantrill)

After beating Cleveland in extra innings, Oakland has won 5 straight games straight. Today they face the Indians’ young starter Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.71), who has been an eye opener in his last 6 starts. In his last three starts, he has allowed only 1 run over 19 innings. It is a pity that the Indians haven’t taken more of an advantage of his fine stuff..

The A’s have Frankie Montas on the mound, who has also been strong. He is 2-1 in his last 7 starts with a 2.76 ERA. Montas has been averaging 6 innings per start with an absolute ton of strikeouts.

Both bullpens have been lights-out of late, with collective ERA’s of under 2.00. Oakland has been a very fine road team this year and are still in play for a wildcard spot. Is Cleveland out of contention? Not completely, so the motivation is still there to compete. They have been a decent home team this year.

I am taking a total here. Neither team is an offensive force, with two strong starters on the mound today and good relief available. Take the Total to go Under.

White Sox (Lance Lynn) vs Twins (Bailey Ober)

The Twins knocked off the White Sox on Tuesday, breaking the division leader’s win streak at four games. Wednesday will be a different story with Lance Lynn on the mound vs rookie Bailey Ober. Lynn has bee a force for the White Sox and shows no sign of tiring down the stretch. He has started 4 times against the Twins this year with great success. In his last two of these starts, he had a pair of 1 run efforts, lasting 6 and 7 innings respectively. He is good pitching on the road and has a 1.85 ERA in his last seven starts.

Ober hasn’t pitched poorly in his rookie season. In his last three starts, he has averaged around five innings and given up 6 earned runs total. Both bullpens have been sharp, no surprise with Chicago and their additions at the deadline. Minnesota’s success is a bit more unlikely.

Both these teams can provide offense, but the motivation will be with the White Sox to get back in their winning ways. Look for Chicago to win outright. The odds are not onerous.

White Sox (Keuchel) vs Twins (Jax)

The Twins, pounded by the White Sox on Monday, are a team that is treading water, far in the distance in the White Sox’ rear view mirror. After losing Berrioz at the trade deadline, they are likely looking for some starting pitching. Based on Griffin Jax’s recent performance, the rookie’s travels to and from

triple A may be over. He has been very solid in his last three starts, posting a 1.88 ERA since the all-star break, and lasting 5 innings on average.

His mound opponent is veteran Dallas Keuchel (7-5, 4.44). Keuchel is 3 -3 in away starts this year and has an ERA of 5.24 since the All-star break. He is backed by a very sharp White Sox pen, and a solid offense.

The Twins were sellers at the trade deadline but even missing Cruz, still have a very powerful offense and can score a ton of runs. Losing 11-1 smarts, even when you are a cellar dweller, and I am looking for some bounce-back on Tuesday. Their bullpen has been very good in their last seven games, not always the norm.

Keuchel is not quite the pitcher he once was, and hasn’t been especially sharp lately. I like Griffin Jax in this postion. The Twins are at home, off a loss, and still have firepower. Take the Twins with the spread at +1.5.

Cards (Happ) vs Pirates (Brault)

The Pirates return home after a lamentable road trip, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. A day off and a home start might change things somewhat. They face J.A. Happ (5-6, 6.62) and the Cardinals on Tuesday. Happ pitched better than usual in his first start for his new team, but has not been generally successful this year. He is 2-3 with an era of 8.10 in his last 7 games, has been poor vs. both sides of the plate, and struggled on the road.

His opponent is lefty Steven Brault. Brault was an effective starter last year but was sidelined until recently. In his first start back was vs. Milwaukee, and he held them to 1 run and 3 hits over 4 innings. I would confidently bet on Brault and the Pirates, if it weren’t for Pittsburgh bullpen. It has been extremely poor, and with Brault likely on a leash, this gives the Cardinals plenty of time to get back in the game. The Card’s pen is one aspect of the team that has played well this season and has been good of late. I am wagering on the total on Monday. Look for the Cards/Pirates total to go over.

Reds (Castillo) vs Indians (Hentges)

The hard-charging and hard hitting Reds, 8-2 in their last ten games are in Cleveland today. The Indians are off a win, but at 4-6, just treading water at the moment. With solid management the Indians always seem to me to be a team that hits above its weight, but with Hentges on the mound they will have to get the bats to work. Hentges is a rookie ‘sometimes-starter’ with poor stats (0-4, 7.86). He won’t stay long in the game and will need support from a bullpen that has been very good in their last seven games.

The Reds have Castillo on the mound. Looking at his record (6-10, 4.09) he doesn’t look impressive but in this case, the numbers don’t tell the true picture. Castillo has been solid through July and August, and 3-0 with 19 innings pitched and 5 runs allowed in his last 3 starts. The Reds bullpen did receive a bit of support at the deadline but is still very unimpressive. They do have a very good road record and are very effective against left-handed starters. The Reds, as a team, score a lot of runs but they also allow allow a lot of runs as well. The Indians haven’t been high scoring of late but may have success against the Reds’ relievers.

Cincinnati is a large favorite, but taking the spread, only a small one. I think they are good for the extra runs. Take the Reds -1.5.

Nationals (Corbin) vs Braves (Fried)

Since the trade deadline, the Nationals have fallen off the map, winning only three of ten games. With Patrick Corbin on the mound today there is no guarantee that this trend will change. Corbin is 6-10, with an ERA of 5.74, and has lost his last 4 starts. He has struggled against right-handers and has been poor on the road.

After losing to the Nationals last night, the Braves, in the thick of a tight fight for a spot in the playoffs, must win this series to even stay close. Max Fried (8-7, 4.05 ERA) is his opponent today. Fried was very good in his last start, pitching 6 innings of shutout ball against St Louis. He is 2 and 2 since the all-star break with an era of 2.16, and has given up only 6 runs in his last three starts.

Perhaps the greatest expression of what has changed since the trade deadline for these two clubs can be seen in reliever performance. Pre-trade deadline these two teams’ pens were roughly equal. In the last seven games, the Braves’ has a 1.88 era while the Nationals’ has plummeted to 5.70 era. The Nationals have done no favors for their offensive production either.

Look for Fried to continue his fine performance, and  the Braves to win this game handily, making up for their tight loss on Saturday. Take Atlanta -1.5. 

Red Sox (Richards) vs Blue Jays (Ryu)

Off a close loss last night, the Jays are riding a hot home stretch and have taken 2 of 3 from the Red Sox in a vital series for both teams. Today it is Ryu, arguably Toronto’s ace, on the mound facing Garrett Richards. Ryu (11-5, 3.22) has been masterful with the slow stuff in August and July with an ERA of 1.85 since the break. The Red Sox haven’t had much success against him, but nor has anyone else.

His opponent Garrett Richards has been not so masterful. In his last two starts vs Toronto he has given up 8 runs while pitching only 4 innings per start. With an ERA of 7.24 since the break, he has struggled against right handed hatters. This is not who you want to struggle with facing the red hot Jays.

As far as bullpens go, the Red Sox’s has regressed somewhat and the Jays’ has been fortified, so call it a draw. Offense? Boston’s has been potent but the Jays’ lineup is a monster.

Motivation is not an issue here. Both teams need to win. Boston has struggled of late and the Jays have ground to make up. I am wagering that the Jays’ offense, held back by some very good starters in the last two games are prepped to tee off on Richards. The Blue Jays are a favorite, but should be good on the spread. Take the Jays -1.5.

Tigers (T. Alexander) vs Indians (Morgan)

These two teams played on Friday with Cleveland winning handily. On Saturday, two unheralded starters are on the mound. With ERAs of 4.77 and 6.75, one might say it wasn’t surprising. Looking closer, both starters have merit. Alexander for the Tigers (0-0, 4.77), a Starter/long reliever, has no record, but his team is 5-0 with him on the mound. His appearances are short bu he has pitched well in 4 of his 5 last starts. The Indians’ Eli Morgan at 23 is a bit more of the risk/reward type. He has bounced up and down from Triple A this year, but is likely here to stay, especially after his last outing against the Jays (6 innings, 2 ER, 9 strikeouts). It is worth checking out the highlights of that game; he was very impressive.

Both bullpens have been very sharp of late. This is no surprise with Cleveland, but Detroit’s relievers have been surprisingly dominant in their last seven games. The under has figured prominently in many of these teams’ results lately.

I am looking at a total today. Alexander has been efficient, and I think that Morgan is a young starter with lots of potential. With two solid pens to back them I am expecting the total to go under today.

Good luck!

Mariners (Flexen) vs Yankees (Heaney)

Since the trade deadline, the Yankees are on a prolonged winning streak. Their latest victims have been the Seattle Mariners, winning the opening two games of their home series. Seattle has been touring the hot teams in the American East and hasn’t fared well. Pitching for Seattle is Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.75). Aside from his start against Houston, Flexen has been as good as anyone this season, with wins, start length and ERA. I am looking for him to continue his rebound against the Yankees.

Andrew Heaney, new to the Yankees, lost his first start with his new team. He has not been that impressive this season at 6-8 with an ERA of 5.42. He is poor against right-handed batters, and has pitched only 9 innings in his last three starts. He does have the Yankees potent bullpen to back him up, although it has been well-used, with a bullpen day yesterday and some short starts from the Yankees’ starters lately.

As far as offense goes, the Yanks have brought in hired guns for the stretch, adding two huge bats, and are a definite favorite over the Mariners. The Mariners added to their pen, losing a closer, then adding two bullpen pieces. The Mariners’ pen has been more than respectable of late.

The Yankees are a heavy favorite, but the combination of Heaney, a poor starter, Flexen, an elite starter who the Yanks are not familiar with, and Seattle’s success against lefties, makes me lean towards Seattle. The Yankees are a heavy favorite, so take the Mariners +1.5.

Since finding a home field at last, the Jays are on a tear at 8-1. Combine this with Boston’s slump (1-7 last 8), and it sets up an uncommon situation for this year; that of Boston as an underdog. Eovaldi is pitching for the Red Sox, and other than his last start, has been very good. The Sox haven’t been especially supportive; though he is 9-6, the team record with him pitching is only 11-10.

Alek Manoah starts for the Jays. At 3-1, 2.47, Manoah has been a real eye-opener for the Jays. For a youngster, he is feisty and very confident. And why not? In his last three starts, he has gone 17+ innings and given up only 2 ER. He has also had run support in his rookie season. The Jays are 6-3 in his starts.

If Boston’s recent record is alarming, how they are losing is doubly so. A case in point is yesterday’s pummeling in Detroit. Many of these losses have lopsided affairs. Their relief efforts have been uncharacteristically poor from a highly-regarded pen. The Blue Jays’ inferior bullpen has been a thorn in the side all season, but the Jays made efforts to remedy this at the trade deadline. Boston more or less stood pat.

While the Red Sox have a potent offense, they pale at the moment compared to the Jays. There are very few rest spots in this formidable juggernaut’s lineup. While Boston is a very good road team, their recent woes are more significant. I like Manoah and the Jays today. Take the Jays, a favorite, to win outright.

Mets (Stroman) vs Phillies (Gibson)

The Phillies are hard-charging, sweeping the Nationals in their last series. Since today’s starter Kurt Gibson’s first appearance with the Phillies, the team is 5-0, and they now start a vital series with the Mets only one game back. The Mets appear to be in the doldrums at 1-5, having done little at the trade deadline to address their light hitting.

Marcus Stroman (7-10, 2.80) had a rough start last time out but has been consistent in allowing few runs per start. Kyle Gibson (7-3, 2.86) seems charged up with his change of scene and has returned

to form with a 2 run 6+ inning effort. He had been through a rough patch in his final games with Texas.

The Phillies have been scoring runs in bunches while the Mets, as usual, struggle to produce. The Mets’ usually dependable bullpen has struggled of late, the Phillies’ relief is much better on this recent run. The Mets have struggled on the road. The Phillies have a strong home record.

Stroman has had very little run support this season, hence his poor win/loss record of 7-10. We can’t speak of run support for Gibson as this is only his second start but the Phillies have a much superior offense. I am wagering on the Phillies, a small favorite, to take this game. So, Phillies to win outright!

White Sox (Lynn) vs Cubs (Hendricks)

Two Chicago teams, two stellar veteran arms on the mound, and that is where the similarities end.

The White Sox were first at the door for the Cubs’ massive sell-off, picking up Kimbrell and Tepera to add to an already tough bullpen. Matching Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07) against the gutted Cubs offense, and I wouldn’t count on many runs scored. Lynn has been good all year, and in his last three starts has allowed only 5 ER in 18 innings pitched.

Kyle Hendricks may have something to prove today. He has had a season completely counter to the Cubs general direction at 13-4 and ERA of 3.43. He has given innings and wins, and had two quality starts in his last three games. Will anyone be around to pick him up at the end? The Cubs did have a potent bullpen, but after the sell-off it has plummeted to an ERA of 7.77/ last 7.

The White Sox’ relievers are doing just fine, thank you, with an earned run average over 4 runs lower during the same period. Add to this a 54-29 record as favorite, 43-33 against the right, the Cubs’ 19-35 as an underdog, and you see why I won’t be betting on the Cubs

With Kendricks as the Cubs starter the odds on the White Sox are palatable. Take the White Sox to win outright.

Pittsburgh (Crowe) vs Reds (S. Gray)

The Pirates are struggling, with 7-3 record in their last ten games, a lamentable away record, and a bullpen that has been poor beyond belief in their last seven games. Looking at Wil Crowe’s stats, you wouldn’t think he gives them much of a chance to turn things around. In fact, since the all-star break, Crowe has pitched well (2-0, 3.24 ERA), and has some support from his mates with a team record of 7/8.

For the Reds on Thursday, Sonny Gray (3-6, 4.26) is on the mound. Gray struggled with rib strain resulting in in a post all-star break ERA of 9.00, however in his last game he threw 6 innings of 1 run ball.

Both starters are capable of a decent start. The issues in this game lie elsewhere. The Pirates are one of the lightest hitting teams in the MLB and give up some of the highest totals as well. 10.12: that is the ERA of the Pirates bullpen in their last seven games. The Reds are a good hitting team and have made some recent changes to their pen, but still struggle in relief. I am wagering that in spite of the best efforts of the two starters, the total today will go over

Boston (Perez) vs Detroit (Skubal)

Off a loss against the Red Sox yesterday, Detroit turns to Tariq Skubal for better success. Detroit has a decent home record and is 5-5 in their last ten games. Boston won last night, but are only 4 -6 last ten. Is this the start of the swoon that people have long forseen? Martin Perez(7-7, 4.56) starts for the Sox. He is 0-2 in his last three starts, giving up about a run an inning, and has a 7.71 ERA since the all-star break. Skubal has also struggled, is 1-2 (5.40 ERA) since the all-star break, and a victim of allowing too many dingers lately.

Both teams can score runs. Boston’s pen has been good and consistent all year long. The Tigers have struggled in relief but have significantly overachieved in their last seven games. This is probably not a stat that can be maintained.

With both starters not at peak form, two decent offenses, and the home run ball figuring prominently, I am looking at the total and wagering on the TOTAL to go OVER

Padres (Musgrove) vs A's (Montas) 

Musgrove has been pretty solid for San Diego. He hasn't been as strong on the road though and the Padres have dropped three of his past five starts. He is only 1-3 with a 4.21 ERA during the day. 

Montas was dynamite last game and has been sharp in six straight starts. He is 3-2 with a 3.21 ERA during the day. 

The Tatis injury may catch up to the Padres in this one. Take Oakland

Pirates (Kranick) vs Brewers (Houser)

The Pirates’ starter, Max Kranick, must know the route from Indianapolis to Pittsburgh pretty well by now. He has been back a forth a good number of times in the last couple of months. In between, he has made four starts, has a record of 1-2, and an ugly ERA of 7.31. His first start was terrific, a five inning no hit shutout, but it has been downhill from there. He has averaged less than 4 innings a start, and has been very poor against right handed batters.

His mound opponent for Milwaukee is Adrian Houser (7-5, 3.69). Houser had a very productive July and has had very good team support (13-5). His starts average around 5 innings and he has only given up 4 runs in his last three assignments.

Kranick’s short starts could become a real issue today as Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been horrid of late AND they just lost their very effective closer at the trade deadline. Milwaukee’s relief corps has been very good at home and in the last 7 games. The Brewers have added a couple of good relief pieces and supplemented their already potent offense via trade.

Pittsburgh is one of a number of teams who will struggle down the stretch after the trade deadline, but it will get players like Kranick into the bigs. What this does to the Pirates already suspect performance remains to be seen. At 40-65 against right handed pitching and 17-35 in road games, I can suggest where the game against Milwaukee will go today. Likely straight downhill. Milwaukee is 63-43 at home and 52- 32 vs right handed starters. At this point Kranick is a very average right-hander. I am picking Houser to continue his strong season and the Brewers to win. Take Milwaukee -1.5.

Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) vs. Washington Nationals (Corbin)

Facing the Nationals last night, the Phillies blew the game open in the 9th for the win. Since the trade deadline, the Nationals are a tad shy in the reliever department, and can expect this to become a regular occurrence. With Patrick Corbin (6-9, 5.78) up against Zack Wheeler (8-6, 2.45) today, the Nationals will be lucky to have a lead to protect. Corbin has struggled this season. In his last three starts, he is 0-2 , has averaged 5 innings per start, and given up 14 runs. He has struggled against right handed batters and had a 7.18 ERA for July.

Lefty Zack Wheeler has been strong all season. Philadelphia, in games he has started, is 12-9. His three last starts were 6 or 7 innings each, giving up a total of 8 runs. The Phillies have added to the pen to the point that they were able to have one of their closers start yesterday. Their bullpen which has been an issue, has been excellent of late. The Nationals relievers have been very poor lately and completely bombed last night.

The offenses are roughly equal in average and run production. One Nationals stat does stand out; the Nationals are poor against lefthanders, but only 17-34 as an underdog! While they split their last series vs. the Phillies, I doubt that the Nationals will do as well this go-round. Take the Phillies to win -1.5.

SF Giants (DeSclafani) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Widener)

Firmly in the cellar with an abysmal record, and a covid-riddled lineup, things look bleak for the D-backs. Today, Giants starter DeSclafani (10-5, 3.10) faces youngster Taylor Widener (1-1, 4.42). He has 8 starts this season, spending considerable time on the IL. His last two starts have been poor, resulting in a bloated 7.82 ERA for July. He struggles against left handed hitting.

DeSclafani has pitched well this season, and has had plenty of support from his team-mates. The Giants are 14-7 with him on the mound. He can’t manage the Dodgers, resulting in a very poor start last time out, lasting only 2 plus innings and giving up 4 runs.

Arizona has not fared well against DeSclafani. They have a poor home record and are very poor vs right handed pitching. Their bullpen has been, you guessed it, poor and losing Soria at the deadline won’t help. The Giants, winners of two straight vs the powerhouse Astros added all-star Kris Bryant to their already effective lineup and will look to pad their lead over the Dodgers in this series against the D-backs. They are a heavy favorite but the spread is palatable. Take the Giants -1.5.

Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez) vs. Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)

This is not your usual starting pitcher lineup. The Phillies have Ranger Suarez (5-3, 1.12 ERA) a very sharp reliever/closer starting for the first time. Starting! Facing Suarez, will be 23 year old rookie, Josiah Gray. Gray came to Washington with the Scherzer trade, unpacked his bags and will start the next day. He has no record, only two previous outings, an ERA of 6.75, unfamiliar team mates. I hope they at least found him a hotel room.

If it seems like Washington has auctioned off half the team, well, they did, losing 2 starters, two top relievers, and only a few vital parts of their offense. They managed a win today against the equally gutted Chicago Cubs, but it is hard to have anything but low expectations for the remainder of the season.

The Phillies off a massive win against against the Pirates, are still in play for a wild card spot. They added a starter and closer at the deadline plus baseball’s original nomadic shortstop, Freddy Galvis.. How many teams has he played for? I have lost count. The Phillies have helped themselves in the pitching department and likely this game will come down to the relievers. Suarez is effective but not stretched out at all, and who knows how Gray will respond.

Washington as a team used to struggle against against lefties but who knows now. The Phillies are good as a favorite, and pretty good against right-handers. I am wagering that they will take advantage of Gray and whatever relievers the Nationals can find to throw out there. Take the Phillies to win.

Rockies (Gomber) vs. San Diego (Knehr)

The Padres, after an unsuccessful trade deadline, took more lumps on Saturday, losing both Tatis Jr and Chris Paddack to injuries. This, on top of losing 5 of 7, including two to the Colorado Rockies, signifies a low point in this once-promising season. They look to Reiss Knehr, called up from Triple-A, to take the mound. Knehr has only started once before, lasting 3.2 innings against the same Rockies, allowing 2 runs and giving up 4 walks.

Knehr’s competition today is Rockies’ lefty Austin Gomber (8-5, 3.69). This will be his 4th start since returning from the IL; he is 2-0 in his last two, lasting 6 innings in each. Gomber has been a very effective starter and a rare bright spot for the Rockies this year.

Most of the general stats favor the Padres. They have a very good home record and are 18-9 against left handed pitching. The Rockies have a laughable road record and struggle against right-handed starters. Their pen pales in comparison to San Diego’s or anyone else’s for that matter.. None the less, the Padres ARE 2-5 for a reason. Losing Tatis takes a real chunk out of their offense. Losing another starter put pressure on their relief efforts. I am wagering on Gomber to limit access to the inept Colorado bullpen, and the Rockies to win three straight. Rockies to win outright.

Cincinnati Reds (Gutierrez) vs. NY Mets (Stroman)

The Mets, first in their division, must be peering over their collective shoulders. Three games up on the Phillies/Braves, if they fall out of first they likely stand no chance of holding down a wild card spot with their record. Their opponent on Sunday, the Reds, can flex lots of offensive muscle but sport a 29th place bullpen. Both teams made changes at the deadline. The Reds added 3 relievers, the Mets, a starter and Javier Biaz, and now the question is: have they done enough?

The Mets came back to win on Saturday night, and turn it over to Marcus Stroman (7-9, 2.63) on Sunday. In his last three starts, he has given up 4 runs in 18 innings pitched, and still had to be satisfied with a 1 and 2 record. His mound opponent is Vladimir Gutierrez (5-3, 4.75). He was beaten by the Mets the last time he faced them. He has had effective starts but seems to throw in the rare poor one, and allows opposing batters a high batting average.

We will see if the new additions to the Red’s pen will rescue it, as with a collective ERA of 5.38, it needs improvement. The Mets’ bullpen has been sharp as usual, the positive part of the Mets’ mantra of ‘score few runs, allow fewer..”

I am wagering on a total here. Stroman usually goes late into the game, allows few runs, and gets even less support. Gutierrez has his moments. I believe he won’t stink out he joint on Sunday and there are hopes for improvement from the Reds in their late innings relief. Take the total to go UNDER.

Brewers (Woodruff) vs. Braves (Muller)

Today’s game features two very good starters: Muller (2-3, 2.55) for Atlanta and Woodruff (7-5, 2.14) for Milwaukee. Kyle Muller is only 23 , but has impressive numbers in his first 5 starts. The length of his starts is an issue, averaging less than 5 innings. This could be a problem because the Atlanta bullpen has not rescued many starters with a W/L record collectively of 13 -23.

Lefty Brandon Woodruff has had a great season, supplying start length (6.3), wins, and ERA for the division leading Brewers. Milwaukee is 13-7 with Woodruff on the mound. He has the support of a fine crew of relievers which was bolstered at the trade deadline.

The Brewers made a couple of significant changes which should help down the stretch. Whether Atlanta’s pickups will address their needs remains to be seen. Rodriguez, given his recent performance, was risky.

Milwaukee has been terrific on the road, strong as a favorite on the road, and very good in low-scoring games, which this one is likely to be. I like what I have seen of Muller, but I am concerned what comes after the 5th, when he is likely finished for the day. The Brewers won in comeback style last night. I see today’s game in much the same way. Take Milwaukee to win outright

KC (Minor) vs BlueJays (Menoah)

After a long stretch of hapless baseball, the Royals have turned things around. They took 3 of 4 against the White Sox, swept Detroit, and took both games vs. Milwaukee in their last 3 series. The majority of these wins were at home. With the loss of Duffy and Soler at the trade deadline, a significant chunk out of their offense and starting pitching, is it even conceivable that KC can make a run for a wildcard spot now?

The Jays are a number of games out and in a much tougher division, but have gone all in at the trade deadline, buoying up their starting pitching and adding significantly to their bullpen in the last days and weeks. They are obviously in a win now mode.

It is a bit of an up-in-the-air match up on Saturday. Minor for the Royals (8-8, 5.33) has had some indifferent stretches this season, but his last two starts have been excellent; 6 innings per start, allowing 1 and 2 earned runs respectively.

Manoah, the Jays’ highly touted rookie right-hander struggled his last outing but was lights out in his two previous starts. Of the first 8 starts in his career, 5 have been of excellent quality. He is just off the ten day disabled list in time for Saturday’s start.

It would appear that Toronto has made great strides in improving their bullpen, which has been a large stumbling block this season. Their bullpen is showing the results of this improvement in the last few games. They are finally back to a “real” home stadium in Toronto; a point to consider.

Kansas city’s bullpen has been slightly better of late. They have a poor road record, and have been very poor vs right handed pitching.

I am wagering that Manoah will be back in form. Noting KC’s struggles on the road and vs. right-handers, I believe that the Jays’ big bats will be too much for Minor. Take the Jays -1.5 today.

La Dodgers (Gonsolin) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Gallen)

It is hard to imagine two teams with less in common than the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers at this moment. The Dodgers have just completed a massive trade with a look to another pennant race. The Diamondbacks are just sitting and waiting for the ax to fall. On the mound for the Dodgers is a fine young starter, Tony Gonsolin(1-1, 2.32). He beat the DB’s the last time he faced them, allowing 1 ER over 4 innings. Dodgers are 6-2 with him pitching, and his starts are getting longer in duration. In his last start against the Rockies, he pitched into the sixth, allowing 0 ER.

Righty Zac Gallen (1-5, 4.79) gets less support than Marcus Stroman! Arizona is a lowly 2-9 with him on the hill. He hasn’t pitched as badly as his record but does have some control issues.

Off a 5-zip win against the rival Giants, the Dodgers must be buoyed up with all of the additions, not to mention the return of Crawford and Seager. Their pen did have some struggles, but must be thrilled with the addition of two new starters, and has returned to form of late. Of note, they are 62-40 as a favorite, and strong vs right-handers. About all that can be said positively about the Diamondbacks is that they did sweep the Pirates, and their underachieving bullpen has been slightly better of late. Against right-handed starters, they are 26-52, at home they are 19-30 and, here is an odd stat, on Fridays they are only 2-15!

Of course the Dodgers are a large favorite, but the spread is palatable. I’m wagering on the Dodgers -1.5. 

Oakland A’s (Bassit) vs LA Angels (Sandoval)

The last time these two teams met, the A’s, at home, took two of two against the Angels, holding them to 1 ER. Since then, the A’s have added two key pieces to help them down the stretch. The Angels can’t decide whether to play or fold, but Thursday’s result may help to clarify as the deadline approaches. With Seattle drawing closer to Oakland this series is critical for the A’s. As for LA, it is pretty clear that they are going nowhere this season.

It is Chris Bassit (10-3, 3.46) pitching for Oakland. The A’s are 14-7 with him on the mound. Bassit has given wins and innings this season, although his July ERA (5.40) might raise some eyebrows.

Sandoval is on the mound for the Angels. The leftie has a 2.93 ERA in July and has been sharp in his last three starts although his record does not reflect this. In those three games, he has pitched 7 or better innings, giving up seven runs.

Oakland has just added another piece to its bullpen, which was already very good. The pen has been razor sharp of late. The Angels‘ relief corp is very much a one trick pony, and has not been impressive in their last 7 games.

The A’s have owned the Angels this season and have everything to play for. The Angels? It is probably a low moment for them. I like both starters. Sandoval in particular has been impressive lately. I feel that the Total is the way to go in this game. Take the A’s and Angels to go under!

Brewers (Peralta) vs. Pirates (Kuhl)

Losers of three straight games, the Buc’s lost a key piece of their offense when they traded Adam Frazier. It can’t be very comfortable in the Pirates dugout, wondering who is next to fall. Meanwhile Milwaukee has bolstered their already potent hitting lineup. The Brewers have taken 2 straight against the Pirates and could bring out the Brooms tonight.

It is Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.34) for the Brewers vs. Bucs’ Chad Kuhl (3-5, 4.38). Kuhl has pitched well in his last three starts, allowing only 4 runs over 16+ innings. He outpitched Peralta in their last meeting. Peralta has been a mainstay in the Brewers’ lineup this year. He has fared well against the Pirates in previous meetings and has been excellent on the road.

Looking at the bullpens, Milwaukee’s usually effective relief corp has been even better lately. The Pirates’ pen has been so-so, and their closer Rodriguez’s star has plummeted of late. He is another candidate before the trade deadline.

The Brewers have an excellent road record of 30-18. They have won 4 of 5, and look to be the class of their division. The Pirates are going nowhere fast, and look to be gutted by the trade deadline. They are 8-16 as home underdogs and struggle against right-handed starters. I like Kuhl as a starter, but you can’t win if your lineup can’t score. Milwaukee is a firm favorite today. I am wagering on Peralta and Milwaukee -1.5.

Braves (Smyly) vs. Mets (Walker)

The Mets outdueled Atlanta to earn a split of a series critical to both teams. Today, early, It is Taijuan Walker on the hill for the Mets. This season and last, Walker has been a go-to guy for me.. until he wasn’t. Someone turned on the runs-given-up tap at the All-star break, and he has been humbled in both starts since. He is apparently not injured, just lost his stuff. Temporary setback or sign of what is to come? Note Walker’s monthly ERAs: May 1.61, June 3.26, and July 9.00!

For the Mets, it is an old veteranon the mound. It may seem like Drew Smyly has been around forever, but it is only 10 years since his career started. He doesn’t chew through the innings quite the way he used to, but still usually pitches into the 6th. Note that he is a 5-0 (ERA 2.19) in his last seven games.

We all recognize that the Mets are generally a light hitting team. Atlanta is considered the reverse. Well, the hard-hitting Braves have scored 2 runs or fewer in 4 of 5 games. You can’t lose 2 major offensive components and not take a hit (so to speak)..

Both bullpens have been pretty good of late.

This game likely balances on the starting pitching. The Mets have a very good home record and the series is key for both teams. I normally love Walker in this situation, but looking at his digression lately, I am concerned. Smyly has been more than solid in July, and appears, if anything, to be improving as the season goes on. I am wagering that the Braves win outright!

Braves (Megill) vs. Mets (Fried)

Smarting after the Braves roughed them up to the tune of 12-5, the Mets need a win tonight to put any daylight between them and the Braves and Phillies. This is an important series for the two teams and we have seen a bit of everything; blow-outs tight wins, and pitching duels. The Braves’ offense has been inconsistent, racing from 0 to 12. They are 5-5 last ten. The Mets have at least been consistent. They don’t generally score many runs, but allow fewer. Let us hope that last night was an anomaly. They are a good home team, and 15-4 as a home favorite.

The Mets send out their rookie Tylor Megill to the hill. The Mets are 5-1 with him on the mound and he is sporting an ERA of 2.10. Better yet, he has been able to stretch out his starts, pitching 6 innings twice in two starts.

Max Fried, like the Braves, has bounced around this season. After a brilliant May, his ERA has risen to 4.57. He is capable of good starts like his game against Tampa, but most seem similar to his last outing, 5innings, and 3 or more ER. Atlanta is 8-8 with him on the hill.

My wager.

I like the Mets here. Off a loss, they will be motivated. They are a slight favorite, and based on pitching and home record, should be good for the win. Take the Mets to win outright.

Tigers (Peralta) vs. Twins (Happ)

The Tigers and Twins have been working overtime the last two games, and split the results.

The Tigers send out Wily Peralta today. Peralta is a good news story for the Tigers this season. Signed to a minor league contract last winter, he is 3-2 with an ERA of 2.54. This season he has held right handed batters off the board to a remarkable degree. Peralta has faced Happ and the Twins in July and emerged with a shutout. His last start was less than spectacular and he has been having some control issues.

Facing Peralta is another veteran, J.A. Happ. At 5-5 and with an ERA over 6.00, it hasn’t been

Happ’s finest season, and while his home record has been good, he has really struggled against right handed batters.

Both pens have well well used this series and are nothing to brag about. Detroit relief has been better of late. The weak hitting Tigers have had good success against Happ in the past. The almost-as-weak-hitting Twins are 24-28 at home this year and have fared poorly against Peralta. The Tigers really struggle on the road, but the fact is both these teams struggle anywhere they play.

I am wagering that Happ will continue his losing ways and Peralta will rebound. The Tigers are an underdog. Taking the Tigers’ poor road record in context, I am saying take the Tigers +1.5.

Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Mariners (Flexen)

Both teams had won their last three starts before meeting up last night. The Astros face a more difficult opponent today in Chris Flexen.

Flexen has been nothing short of remarkable this season. He is 9-4 with an ERA of 3.35. The Mariners are 13- 5 with him pitching. You want more? How about 4-1, 1.60 last seven starts, or 20 innings pitched last three starts, allowing only three runs.

McCullers Jr is also having a fine season, but struggled somewhat last outing. He is 4-1 in his last 7 starts and 5-0 in away games this season.

The Astros pen has been good of late but have one surprising stat; they are 6-11 in W/L on the road. Mariners’ pen has been lights out of late, good at home, and looking at a similar stat, is 18-5 in win/loss at home for the season.

Of note: Astros are a very good road team, but their offense is down slightly lately. Mariners are a good road team, and their offense is up in their last games.

I am wagering that this game will go UNDER. 81/2 is a pretty high total for these starters. Both starters are likely to go long, and with strong relief corps at the moment, I see them stymieing the offense.

Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Mariners (Flexen)

Last night the Mariners came back to win against the Astros, making that 4 straight wins for Seattle. They are now 13 – 7. It doesn’t get any easier tonight for Houston with Chris Flexen on the mound. He is 4-1, 1.60 in his last seven starts, with 20 innings pitched in his last three starts, allowing only three runs. The Mariners are 13- 5 with him on the mound and are a good home team.

Houston runs out Lance McCullers Junior (7-2, 3.04) His last start was not his sharpest, but he really has been impressive this year, and I am not looking for the Mariners to score many runs against him. I go back to a stat I mentioned previously, and that is the Astros bullpen W/L on the road (6-12 now).

Combining this with the Mariner’s steady bullpen, I’d suggest that this game could be decided in the later innings and that the Mariners have a definite advantage here.

The Astros are a strong favorite tonight. The spread with Seattle is very affordable. Take the Mariners +1.5.

Marlins (Alcantara) vs. Baltimore (Watkins)

Yes, the Orioles are going nowhere. Yes, Alcantara is arguably the Marlins ace. And Yes, at age 28, Spenser Watkins is only in his third start. Right now he looks like the real thing, holding the Jays, the White Sox, and the Rays to a single run each. Only in the ‘bigs’ since June 30, Watkins has amassed stats of 2-0 with an ERA of 1.61.

And how about those Orioles? They swept the Nationals, and are 6-4 last ten games. Their bullpen which has struggled all season, has come together to some degree. Could they possibly go 4 straight?

With an ERA of 2.88 in his last seven starts, Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has pitched well enough, but his W/L is only 2-4. The Marlins, one of the leagues’ lightest hitting teams just hasn’t supplied much run support. He is 1-4 at home and his outing s lately have been short.

Can Watkins’ ‘Cinderfella’ run continue? Can the Orioles counter their alarming 20-41 record against right handed pitching? Maybe. What I am confident of is that the Orioles, an underdog, will prosper early. Take Baltimore to Win, first five innings.

Here is a stat that stands out like a sore thumb; the Royals are 3-7 on Mondays! Does it mean anything? Probably not, but it is curious.. Mike Minor is pitching for the Royals and he has had the blues more than a few times this season. While he has been a trooper this year, he hasn’t shown particularly well (2-5 last 7 starts) of late. His last start was very good, but based on his history, the likelihood of him putting together 2 good starts in a row is slim.

Lefty Dallas Keuchel (7-3, 4.22) is on the mound for the White Sox. He doesn’t have great stuff anymore but he usually demonstrates the craft of pitching, sandwiching good starts with the odd brutal outing. The Sox generally go to bat for him, noted by a record of 12-6 when Keuchel is on the mound.

The White Sox have a couple of stats that do mean something. They are 19-8 against lefties and as a favorite, they are 50-24 as a favorite. They are only 5-5 in their last 10 at the moment, but their offense is very capable, especially against a suspect left-hander like Minor

The Royal have put together a 6-4 record last ten games and swept the Tigers, but the White Sox?

This is a whole different ball game.

I am wagering on the White Sox, a slight favorite, to win.

Braves (Muller) vs Mets (Stroman).

The Mets took 2 of 3 against the Jays, gaining a little ground between them and the Braves and Phillies.

Marcus Stroman (7-8, 2.59) is on the hill for the Mets this afternoon. Stroman pitched an absolute gem last outing, going 8 innings and allowing only 1 hit. He appears to be completely recovered from his hip soreness that bothered him some starts ago. He also had some run support, so just maybe his W/L record will start to reflect his abilities.

The pitcher for the Braves is 23 year old Kyle Muller (1-3, ERA of 2.41 as a starter). Muller has bounced around from farm to major leagues with some frequency, but in between travels has amassed some decent stats. His issue appears to be control. He hasn’t allowed many runs, but does run up his pitch count very quickly.

The Mets are a light hitting team, the Braves have some oomph. Stroman’s record is solid vs. the Braves. The Mets have never faced Muller. The total reflects that this is the opening game of a double header.

I am wagering that the total goes under. Both bullpens have been much better than average of late. Stroman might finish for himself if he pitches like his last game. And just a side note, but Man, was Mets’ closer Diaz impressive against the Jays yesterday.

After losing Friday night, the Jays brought out the big bats on Saturday and even an indifferent outing by their ace Riyu couldn’t stop them from a lopsided win. Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. It might be expecting a lot from Hill, who was just traded Saturday, to run it out against the Jays the next day, but being traded is nothing new to Hill. In his long career, he has pitched for 11 different teams. He has had a solid season going 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA. July has been so-so for him after a terrific May. His ERA is 4.97 for the month, and his starts have averaged between 3-5 innings. The Jays are familiar with Hill and have had some success against him.

Ross Stripling is pitching for the Jays today. Stripling started the year very poorly, then made some alterations to his delivery and was quite successful mid season. Of late the bad is busting through the good. He was absolutely shelled in the first inning against the Red Sox and for the month he is 0-2 and 10.24. His start length has declined, which is an issue as the Jays’ weakness is still relief. The Mets’ weakness generally hasn’t been in their relievers, but last night Guerrero and Co. knocked them around.

The Toronto’s offense really is formidable, and with the addition of Semien and Springer, much more

experienced. The Mets are a light hitting team but they may get their chances against Striping and the Jays’ pen.

My wager? Take the total to go over.

Colorado Rockies (Freeland) vs. LA Dodgers (Gonsolin)

After a tough series with San Francisco, the Dodgers meet up with the Rockies. This should have given them the opportunity to regroup and get back to business, but they were embarrassed by the Rockies last night. Gonsolin (1-1, 2.67) is on the mound for the Dodgers. His last start was his worst, giving up 3 runs in the first, which were the only runs he did give up. While he hasn’t been going deep into his starts, he has been consistently good, as his ERA shows.

The Rockies’ Freeland is 1-4 with an ERA of 5.36. While he hasn’t pitched badly in July, some his stats are downright scary, in particular an ERA of 9.45 vs left handed batters. When you combine this with the Dodgers’ ability against lefties (18-11), it is something to consider.

Much has been made of the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen’s 3 blown save meltdown and last night’s relief debacle, but the Dodgers still have a much superior relief corps. Much superior offense. 10-3 as a home favorite. Plus, their bats are on fire for the past two weeks. Compare to the Rockies: 2-14 as a road underdog, 27-40 against a right handed starter, and of all things, 5-13 on Saturdays. Which leads one to wonder what they get up to on Friday nights..

My wagering

The Dodgers are a huge favorite and have something to prove this evening, but taking them with the spread is a good value. Dodgers to win -1.5.

Atlanta Braves (Smiley 7-3, 4.50) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez, 3-4)

The Phillies and Braves have split the series so far. Atlanta trails the Phillies by one game for a wild card spot, so this game has real significance. Drew Smiley (7-3, 4.50) is on the mound for Atlanta. He is 5-0 last 7 starts with a 2.65 ERA, and has handled the Phillies‘ big bats in past meetings.

Vince Velasquez has been very erratic this season. He had a good start last time out, preceded by two very poor ones, resulting in an ERA for July of 8.78. Atlanta has soundly thrashed Velasquez this season.

Neither pen has stood out in particular of late. The Phillies’ offense probably has an edge recently. It would be a tough call except for Velasquez. Based on his history, it is hard to see him throw well in two consecutive starts. Smiley has been good in July and much more consistent. I am betting on Atlanta, a small underdog, to win.

Athletics (Montas) vs. Mariners (Kikuchi)

The Mariners wasted a terrific start by Flexen last night and hope to respond with Kikuchi. Kikuchi, their all-star selection, has had two poor starts since the break, lasting 5 innings in each and giving up 5 and 7 ER respectively.

Frankie Montas, on the other hand has had 4 strong starts in a row. He has terrific away record, and has a July ERA of 2.45.

My concern yesterday was the Mariners’ bullpen, and, sure enough, they stumbled. Oakland’s relief core has been very good of late.

The Mariners’ bats, which had been improving, have stumbled in the last week and are pretty anemic at the moment. Oakland’s top four have really turned on the run and avg. taps the last two weeks, and are very good against left-handed pitching.

My wager

Oakland has a very good road record, and some momentum here. The Mariners’ bullpen proved me right, unfortunately, last night. Seattle’s home record is not desirable. Take the Oakland A’s to WIN

L.A. Angels (Cobb) vs Minnesota Twins (Happ)

After a tight victory in the series opener, the Angels run out Alex Cobb to try and get some traction down the stretch. Cobb (7-3, 3.96) has had a few very poor starts this season but for the most part, and especially in July, he has been strong. This month, he has given the Angels wins (2), innings (20), and ERA (1.35). The last time he faced the Twins, he gave up only 1 earned run.

The veteran J.A. Happ has not fared as well this month. He is 1-2 in July with a bloated ERA of 7.36. He is still capable of the odd quality start and can eat some innings, but his best days are behind him.

Minnesota is not a strong home team, and have struggled both at night and against right handed starters. The Angels have struggled a bit on the road, but they out muscle the Twins and are very good against lefties.

My wager.

At 5 and 6 in their last eleven games, and probable changes coming at the trade deadline, it is hard to see the Twins making much happen at this time in the season. Cobb has been the bright light in the Angels’ rotation and the Angels are 10-4 with him on the mound. I am calling The Angels to WIN on this one.

Athletics (Manaea) vs. Mariners (Flexen)

The Athletics and Mariners start an important 4 games series in Seattle. Third in their division and behind Oakland, if Seattle is to make any kind of a run at a wild card spot now is the time. Off a loss last night, the M’s send Chris Flexen to the hill. Not to jinx him, but Flexen has been nothing short of remarkable this season. He is 9-4 with an ERA of 3.35. The Mariners are 13- 4 with him pitching. You want more? How about a 1.77 ERA, 0.94 WHIP last seven starts, or 20 innings pitched last three starts, allowing only two runs.

Sean Manaea is no slouch on the mound. He is 6-6 with an ERA of 3.28. He is 0-2 last three, and 2-4 on the road. More to the point, he is poor against left handed batters. Add to this a Seattle team that is 20-13 against left handed pitchers gives pause for thought.

Neither team is what you might call a powerhouse, but here are a couple of points to note. Seattle is 29-20 at home. Oakland’s bullpen has been very sharp last seven games with an ERA of 1.66. Seattle’s relief; so-so.

My wager.

Seattle is an underdog here, but I like Flexen and the Mariners in this situation. My only concern is the Seattle bullpen, who have struggled of late. Take the Mariners on the run line, +1.5.

Atlanta (Morton) vs. Philadelphia (Moore)

Here is a tale of two pitchers. One, Charlie Morton, has pitched well through the season with a record of 8-3 and an ERA of 3.60, and yet his team is only 10-9 with him pitching. The other, Matt Moore, is 0-1, with an ERA of 5.65, yet his team is 6-1 with Moore on the mound. Go figure.. For Moore, this issue is start length; for example, none of his last three starts lasted more than 4.1 innings. These positive team outcomes? Chalk it up to good pitcher management.

Atlanta lost a tight one last night. The Phillies are coming off a pair of losses to the Yankees. Motivation should not be an issue. A wild card spot is a potential for one of these teams. The Phillies have a very strong home record. Atlanta has been good in past meetings vs. Moore, Philadelphia only so-so against Morton.

My wager.

Moore is coming off a 9 strikeout game and has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last three (albeit short)starts. Atlanta has that nagging history of not giving Morton much support. Philadelphia’s relief core has been strong. Fatigue may play a roll here, as Atlanta had a home double-header yesterday, and is away today. Atlanta’s pen has not been sharp. Take the Phillies with the spread +1.5.

Indians (Morgan) vs. Astros (McCullers Jr.)

Houston, off a 9-3 thumping of the Indians, runs out Lance McCullers to try for the sweep. Junior is having a fine season and handled the Indians to the tune of 1 ER last time he faced them. He has given up only 5 ER over 19 innings in his last three starts.

Eli Morgan is starting for the Indians. He is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.86, and is averaging only 4 + innings a start. He has been particularly poor vs right-handed batters. Cleveland does have and will need a good bullpen today, but it has been heavily taxed in the Indians’ last few starts.

The Astros have been terrific both at home and against right-handers. Their potent offense really outclasses the Indians’ more meager production.

My wager

Houston is a heavy favorite and, I think, rightly so. I am taking Houston to win -1.5.

Mets (Stroman) vs. Reds (Hoffman)

The Mets lost a close one last night vs. the Reds. Today, Marcus Stroman and Jeff Hoffman duel on the hill. Both starters have a lot riding on this start. Stroman, who started well this season, hasn’t been the same since some hip issues in June. He is 0-2 last three, and none of his starts have gone over 5 innings. Hoffman hasn’t pitched since May, and wasn’t particularly successful at that time. He is returning from a shoulder injury and is in danger of losing his spot in the starting rotation. He, also isn’t likely to pitch long into the game.

While the Reds do have more offensive potential than the Mets, they aren’t overly successful against at home. The Mets are very good against a right handed starter and have better relief options. Neither pen has been successful of late, but I guess you could say that the Mets’ pen has been ‘less bad’

My wager

I like the Mets in this situation. While I always grumble about Stroman’s career-long lack of run support, he is a competitor, and is likely to bounce back from 0-2. Hoffman is an unknown at this point, but it is hard to pin much hope on his success today. Take the Mets to win outright.

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Talk about a turn-around. It wasn't long ago, Phoenix fans were chanting "Suns in 4." Now, its Milwaukee fans doing the chanting. 

They were hitting everything last game but we kept hearing Van Gundy say that the teams were still playing good defense. The big final score of game 4 has rewarded us with a large over|under line for this contest.  

My wager

Its all about the defense in this potential close-out game. This is only the 2nd time Phoenix was behind in a series, entering a game, in these playoffs. The 1st was game 4 against the Lakers. The Suns allowed only 92 points in that low-scoring game and they kept the Lakers to less than 40% shooting. I'm going under. 

San Francisco Giants (Gausman) vs. L.A. Dodgers (Gonsolin)

The two west coast powerhouses, first and second in the NL West, face off in L.A. on Monday. This is a critical series for both teams. The Giants, off two close losses, look to Kevin Gausman (9-3,1.79) for a win. He has allowed only 6 runs over 18 innings and recorded two losses in those 3 starts. I think the Giants owe him a little run support.

Tony Gonsolin is his opponent. After shoulder issues, he has been strong, allowing only 2 runs in three starts. While he has pitched very well, he is a bit of an unproven entity. Gonsolin is on a tight leash, pitching only 12 innings in 3 starts. There in lies the problem for the Dodgers. Down a starter, their relievers were overtaxed before the break and threw a full 6 innings in the Dodgers’ extra inning loss on Sunday.

The Dodgers have the better offense and have flexed their muscles in a couple of lopsided wins of late.

My wager

The Gausman advantage outweighs the Dodgers’ home field advantage. Due to bullpen usage, Gonsolin may be pushed to pitch deeper into the game, and that will be unfamiliar territory. I am going with the proven starter and a rested pen. Take San Francisco to WIN!

Twins (Happ) vs Tigers (Peralta)

The Tigers won a pair in a double-header against the Twins on Saturday. Is a sweep in the offing? The Tigers, who have climbed out of the cellar, and now have a winning home record, send out Wily Peralta today. Peralta is a good news story for the Tigers this season. Signed to a minor league contract last winter, he is 2-1 with a shining 2.08 ERA. While the sample size is small, this season he has shut out all right handed batters he has faced.

Facing Peralta is another veteran, J.A. Happ. At 5-4 and with an ERA approaching 6, it hasn’t been Happ’s finest season, and he has pitched poorly away from home.

The weak hitting Tigers do have a winning record against lefties, and have had success against Happ in the past. The almost-as-weak-hitting Twins are 17 and 25 on the road this year and have fared poorly against Peralta.

My wager.

A sweep opportunity doesn’t come around for the Tigers very often. I’m looking for a little extra motivation here. Peralta has been strong this season, Happ only so-so. I am looking for Detroit’s success story to continue and taking the underdog. Detroit to WIN.

New York Mets (Walker) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Brubaker)

The Pirates are winners of two straight against the Mets. In Sundays match-up, Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.50) faces off against J.T. Brubaker (4-9, 4.47) and hopes to stop the bleeding for the Mets. Walker has been very sharp, giving up only 5 earned runs in his last three starts. He has been particularly strong against right-handed batters, with an ERA of 2.16.

Brubaker has been spiraling in the wrong direction. The loser of three straight, the Pirates are only 4-12 when he is on the mound. Adding to this is a Pirates bull pen, average at best, and very poor over the last seven games.

Both teams are light-hitting, but the Mets have thrived on right handed pitching (38-25) while the Pirates have struggled (28-41). The Pirates’ home record is nothing to brag about either.

My wager

I think the buck stops with Walker. He has been as dominant as any pitcher of late, and has had plenty of run support. Brubaker is heading sideways, and the Pirates‘ relievers cannot be counted on to back him up. Take the Mets -1.5.

The home team has won each game so far, and I believe that it will continue here in Game 5. The Bucks have been excellent the past two games, especially 2-time MVP and DPOY Giannis Antetokoumnpo. The Greek Freak had  41, 13 and 6 in Game 3 in that crucial game. He followed that up with another stellar performance last time out where he dropped 26 while having 14 rebounds and 8 assists. Now, we head back to Phoenix, Arizona where the Suns have looked nearly unstoppable this postseason. Phoenix point guard, Chris Paul, was definitely not his best in Game 4, as he struggled with his ball-handling and his shooting. CP3 is one of the best players in the league to have not won a championship. Every single time he would reach the playoffs, an injury got in the way of his success. Finally, the Suns provided that opportunity and I expect him to have one of his best games of his career this next game as he's also one of the clutchest performers in the NBA. Don't forget, the Suns also have Devin Booker, one of the newest Superstars of the league, who just dropped a 42-piece, as well as former #1 ovr pick Deandre Ayton. Bridges, Cam Payne, and Crowder have been huge as well. Look for Phoenix to take it to the Bucks from the opening Tip-Off and keep the pressure on them the entire game.  Take  phoenix - 3 1/2.

Seattle Mariners (Kikuchi) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Cobb)

After a stellar outing last night by the Seattle starter, the Angels are out of the pitching frying pan with Flexen, and into the fire with Kikuchi. Perhaps Yusei Kikuchi, who stumbled a little last start, will take his missed All-star participation out on the Angels. He is 6-3, 2.77 ERA in his last 12 starts.

Facing him is Alex Cobb. Cobb had a terrific start last outing but his June stats were poor; his ERA was 7.32 over three starts. The Mariners have a good history with Cobb. The Angels have been only fair vs Kikuchi.

Last night’s blown lead aside, the Mariners relief core has been effective, however as a team, they do lack the offensive fire-power of the Angels. Ohtani and the Angels’ lineup have been absolutely on fire over the last two weeks.

My wager.

Seattle burned their two top relievers last night. Kikuchi is only a ‘five or six innings per outing’ starter, which gives the Angels an opportunity to feast on the rest of the pen. Cobb is just one start away from a very poor stretch. Take the total to go OVER.

Miami Marlins (Thompson ) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez)

The Marlins, dead last in the NL East, have a curious stat. They have unexpectedly out-scored their opponents. This good pitch-no hit style of baseball hasn’t got them very far in the standings. Rookie Zach Thompson is a part of the ‘good pitch’; he is 2-2 with low WHIP and ERA. His innings were limited, but have now stretched out to 5 or 6 per start.

Facing him is Vince Velasquez. Velasquez won against the Marlins on the last time he faced them, but it is his only win in 7 starts. He has an ugly ERA of 6.89 over that period.

Phillies’ offense is middle of the pack. Phillies’ bullpen has been good but Miami’s has been stellar of late.

My wager.

The two teams split a double header yesterday. Can Miami win two in a row? I think so. Velasquez has really struggled. Thompson appears to be a young wonder. Take the Marlins, a slight underdog, to WIN.

The Angels, off a win, begin the 2nd half at home against the Mariners. Andrew Heaney (5-6, 5.38) is 1-2 in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs during that time. Mariners have had their way with Heaney in the past.

It is Chris Flexen on the mound tonight for Seattle. Mariners are 12-4 with him on the hill, and he is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.69 ERA in July. Flexen stymied the Angels in his last start allowing only 3 hits and 0 runs over 7 innings.

The Angels offense is much superior to Seattle’s but the Mariners’ ‘pen has shined of late, especially in late relief.

My wager

I am looking for Flexen to continue his winning ways, controlling the L.A.’s heavy hitters and beating the Angels in 2 straight starts. Take Seattle to WIN.

Rangers (Lyles) vs. Blue Jays (Ray)

The Jays are at home to start the second half of the season, facing the Rangers. Off a win against Tampa, they send Robbie Ray to the mound. Ray lost a no hitter in the seventh, last start, which is fairly representative of his abilities of late. In three starts he has averaged 7 innings and given up only 5 earned runs. He has a 4-2 home record and has been exceptional against left handed batters.

Jordan Lyles (5-5 4.86 ERA) is pitching for the Rangers. Lyles is much better in June and July than his record would indicate, and has allowed less than 2 ER in each of his last starts. Few of the Jays hitters have faced Lyles, which is a bonus. The young Jays hitters still struggle against an unfamiliar pitcher.

Texas’s bullpen is nothing to cheer about and the Jays’ pen is probably what keeps them out of a playoff spot, but both are at least well rested after the break.

My wager

Both starters look to have long outings. The Jays are much the superior offense, but may not show it the first time against Lyles. Toronto is a heavy favorite but I believe this will be closer than the odds suggest. Take the Rangers +1.5.

Cincinnati Reds (Castillo) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff)

The Brewers must be looking over their shoulders, because the Reds are hard charging. Winners of 5 of 6 against the Brewers this season, Cincinnati has taken two of three games of this series.

Today, Woodruff (7-4, WHIP of 0.78) faces Castillo (3-10, ERA of 5.13). On paper, this looks like a no-contest, but looking closer, Castillo, who started the season an unbelievable 1-10, has been very good in June and July. He is 4-3, has pitched 6+ per start and hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in his last 7. Woodruff had an uncharacteristic substandard start last outing, giving up 4 runs in 6 innings but otherwise he has been pretty stingy on the mound.

The Reds have won 7 of their last 9, & have the better offensive stats. The Brewers’ bullpen has been excellent of late.

My wager

Two good starters are on the mound, both potentially going deep in the game. Off a pair of losses, Milwaukee needs this win and Woodruff is the man to look to. Reds’ pen has struggled, but the Brewers’ relievers have been terrific in the last 7 games. Take the Brewers to WIN

The Phillies and Red Sox have split the series so far. Both teams can put up offense, as noted in the huge totals (29 runs scored) in the last two games. Boston has been very successful at home, and strong against right- handed pitching.

Boston is 12-5 with Pivetta on the mound. In his last three starts, he is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.00.

Nola has been very uneven in a disappointing 2021 season. He has scattered the odd good start among poor ones. He has struggled on the road and his ERA has ballooned to 6.19 over his last 3 starts. A stat of note: the Phillies are 14-28 after a win while the Sox are 19-14 after a loss.

My wager

The Boys from Beantown will bounce back. Take the Red Sox to win.

Angels (Sandoval) vs. Mariners (Flexen)

The Angels, facing the Mariners in Seattle, have Patrick Sandoval on the mound. Sandoval has been a replacement starter before, and is having some success of late. He can struggle mightily with his control at times, and as a consequence doesn’t always have long outings.

Chris Flexen is pitching for the Mariners. Flexen is 7-3 with an ERA of 3.80, and averages 6 innings per start. He has been particularly sharp at home this season (5-2, 1.99 ERA)

The Angels have won five of seven. They out-muscle the Mariners, but come up short in the bullpen department, as noted in last night’s late-in-the- game stumble. The Mariners have a good record at home, and are in tough against left handed pitching.

My wager

With Seattle’s and Flexen’s strength at home and some uncertainty around Sandoval, I am betting Seattle to WIN.

Pirates(Anderson) vs. Mets (Stroman)

The Pirates have returned to their losing ways. After taking two of three vs the Braves, they have now lost two straight. They will look to Ian Anderson in the first game of the double-header to halt this skid before it becomes a habit again. Anderson has pitched much better than his record of 4-8. In his last three games, he has averaged at least 6 innings pitched, and given up 5 earned runs total. As this is only a 7 inning game, this will give the woeful Pirates relievers less time on the firing line.

Marcus Stroman has had a rough few games. He had shortened outings due to hip soreness and then went on bereavement leave. His last start was not his best, but, Hallelujah, he finally had some run support from the Mets batters.

My wager

These are two relatively light hitting teams with two strong starters. In the first game of the double header I am betting on the total to go UNDER.

The Yankees and Astros met three times back in May. Two of those games finished with 10 or more runs. The other finished with nine. Five of the past six meetings have finished with at least nine runs. Odorizzi has a 6.76 ERA in his four starts here. Three finished over the total. Odorizzi averaged only three innings in those games. Cortes won't be around long either. He's made only one start and lasted just three innings. Cortes did happen to face Houston in his lone 2020 start. He managed only one out while allowing 8 runs. In fact, he gave up more HR's than he had outs recorded. Prior to yesterday, NY had gone over in six of seven. 

My wager? Take the OVER

The Tigers and Twins haven’t faced each other since May. That was back when the boys from Motor City were driving around on four flats, and before the wheels fell off the Twins’ bus. These days, Detroit is almost respectable, and with an emotional win last night, firing on most of their cylinders.

Tarik Skubal is on the hill today. Skubal has won 4 in a row and had three quality outings of the four. More importantly, the Tigers have won 6 of 7 with Skubal on the mound.

The Tigers are facing J.A. Happ. At 38 years old, he is not the premium starter he once was. He is 4-4 with an ERA of 6.09, and was very poor last time out. The Twins have had little success with Happ on the mound.

The Tigers have improved in all categories since their abysmal start. Of particular importance is their pen, which went statistically from last to 4th. The Twins are now living in the cellar, and I am not sure up is the direction they are heading.

My wager? Take the Tigers, a small underdog, to WIN.

Oakland A’s (Montas) vs. Houston Astros (McCullers Jr.)

The hard hitting Astros have owned the A’s to the tune of 9-3, and with some very lopsided wins, at that. They have a great home field record and eat up right handed pitching.

It doesn’t look promising for Frankie Montas. He is 7-7 with an ERA of 4.63. He hasn’t won a game in three starts, giving up 12 runs in 15+ innings pitched.

The same cannot be said about Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.97). He is 3-0 in his last three starts, giving up only 2 earned runs per game. He faced the A’s in April, but won 9-1 in that start.

At 3 and 7, the A’s can’t get any traction at this critical moment in the season, and are sinking in the standings. Will they continue on their woeful path?

My wager.

Lance McCullers Jr. is the real thing. I am not so sure about Frankie Montas. Take the Astros to win, -1.5.

New York Yankees (German) vs. Seattle Mariners (Kikuchi)

The so-called lowly Mariners are 4 and 2 in their last six games, much better than the Yankees at 3 and 7. The Yanks are struggling, with little consistent offense other than Judge, their starters failing, and their vaunted bullpen in tatters. They beat up on Sheffield in the early going, but will meet a very different pitcher today in Kikuchi.

Kikuchi is an allstar selection for good reason; he is 6-3 with an ERA of 3.18, winning against the Jays, White Sox and Rays last three, while giving up only three earned runs total in the process.

His opponent is Domingo German (4-5, 4.50). Like most of New York’s starters, he has struggled in his last three starts, pitching to a tune of 0-1-2, with only three or four innings pitched per game.

The wager

The Mariners can score some runs. Their offense in terms of runs per game is at par with the Yankees’ for the season, and better recently. Has New York finished free falling? I don’t think so. Take Seattle to WIN.

Toronto Blue Jays (Riu) vs Baltimore Orioles (Harvey)

Its game two in the’ Battle of the Birds’, and Orioles flew away with the first one. The Jays are fighting to challenge for the lead in the formidable American East and need to win this series against Baltimore. Their offense is healthy and dominant; they know they can’t rely on an injury-riddled and struggling pitching staff.

What has come over Hyun Jin Riu? Riu, the master of the slow stuff and team ace, is struggling. His last start (4 runs over 4 innings) was his worst of the season, but his outings have been shorter and less effective than at the start of the season.

One could ask the same of Harvey, but for different reasons. Sporting an abysmal ERA of 7.34 and 3/9, he appears to have turned it around in his last few starts. He face the Jays twice in their last series, pitched ten innings over 2 starts and allowed only 7 earned runs.

Of note: The Jays have a 5-2 record against Baltimore, and they play better on the road than in whichever park they are calling home. They have in past teed off on Harvey.

The wager

With probable short outings from the two starters, suspect relief and the Jays’ tough hitting lineup, I am betting on the OVER

Oakland A’s (Bassitt) vs Houston Astros (Valdez)

This game features two strong starters. Bassitt and Valdez, both winning 5 of their last seven starts, have uncannily similar stats in innings pitched, hits, earned runs & base-on-balls allowed, and strikeouts.

Houston has been Jekyll and Hyde of late. They lost 2 of 3 against Detroit, were swept by Baltimore, before sweeping the four game series vs. Cleveland.

The A’s are 4 and 6 in their last 10 games. They have lost the opening game of their last four series. The outcome of this series will be a major factor to see if they can challenge the Astros for first in the division, but win consistency has been lacking.

The bullpens benefit from a day off, but neither has been impressive. Both starters have a history of long starts.

The wager

It is a bit of a tough call, but with home field advantage, their ability to hit right-handers and their superior fire power, I am taking the Astros to WIN.

Atlanta Braves (Anderson) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Kuhl)

The Braves were embarrassed by the Pirates on Monday, to the tune of 11-1. It was a bit of the old story of bums playing like heroes and heroes playing like bums. Ian Anderson is on the mound for the Braves. The last time he faced the Pirates, the Braves won 20-1. Anderson has been above average, giving up only 5 earned runs over 18+ innings pitched in his last three starts.

Chad Kuhl is pitching for Pittsburgh. Both of this year’s wins have come in his last three starts, but his line for the season (2-5, ERA of 5.16) is not promising.

The wager.

Could the Pirates go a heady 3 and 0? I am going with history and the ages-old emotion of revenge here. Take the Braves to WIN.

Atlanta Braves (Max Fried) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ( Chase De Jong)

The Pirates won last night (2-0) for the first time in seven games. I don’t expect this will become a trend. The Pirates are the worst in the league in runs-scored and they have done little to help that stat, scoring a total of 10 earned runs in this period.

Pittsburgh starter Chase De Jong has not fared well this season. He is 0-3, and averaging only 4-5 innings per start. His ERA in June was an eye-popping 6.46. He really struggles against right hand batters.

The Braves are 4-1, winning in ten innings last night. Max Fried is on the hill. After a dismal April, Fried has returned to his All-Star form. He was 3-2, in June and has only given up 7 ER in four starts.

You want run support? Atlanta has scored 29 runs in Fried’s last two starts!

Bullpen success for the two teams has been night and day. The Braves' pen stumbled a little last night but has been very good the previous 7. Pirates’ pen was good last night but absolutely brutal the previous seven. Imagine the Pirates pen if Richard Rodriguez is traded at the deadline..

The wager

I can see nothing that doesn’t suggest a Braves win. Take Atlanta to win -1 1/2.

LA Dodgers (Walker Beuhler) vs. Miami Marlins (Trevor Rogers)

Beuhler (8-1, .90 WHIP) is pitching for LA today and I don’t think he will be taking the day off. He is a consummate starter, giving the Dodgers innings pitched, wins, and consistency every start, whether home or away, or day or night.

Twenty three year old Trevor Rogers may be well on his way to that kind of success. He is 7-5 (on an inferior team) with an ERA of 2.14. In his last start, he had some control issues, but still only gave up 2 runs on 2 hits.

The Dodgers are 11-5 with Beuhler on the mound: Marlins only 8-8 when Rogers is pitching. Beuhler averages at least an inning longer in his starts. Dodgers’ bullpen has been absolutely lights out in the last 7 games. Miami’s blew a tire on Independence Day.

The wager

The Dodgers have too much going in all categories against the Marlins. Take the Dodgers to win. They are worth the money.

Boston Red Sox (Pivetta) vs. Oakland A’s (Kaprielian)

As momentum goes, The Red Sox had it, Oakland not so much. Last night, the A’s prevailed with a much needed victory in the twelfth. The A’s are struggling at 5-5, and lost a heart-breaker to Boston on Friday, also in extra innings. Perhaps last night’s win will jump-start them.

Red Sox are 7-4, and have a very good away record, but face the better starter in Kaprielian. In his rookie year he has posted enviable stats, including a WHIP of 1.1 and an average of 6 innings pitched per start.

For the Red Sox, Nick Pivetta starts. He is 6-3, but that doesn’t paint a true picture of his season. In his last 7 starts, be is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.50. His control has been off and, of note, he has a very poor ERA in day games.

There is no doubt that Boston has real offensive muscle, and has pummeled poor pitching in this last winning streak. The A’s offense has been anemic of late, but A’s batters looked better last night.

The wager

When in doubt, go with the better pitching. Look for the A’s to continue to turn around this home stand. Oakland A’s to WIN.

New York Mets (Stroman) vs. New York Yankees (Cole)

Gerrit Cole is pitching for the Yankees, so a win is guaranteed, right? While he is 8-4, the Yankees record with Cole on the mound is 8-8. His record in his last three starts is 1-0-1, with an ERA of 5.22.

And he is coming off his worst start of the season.

For the Mets, Stroman has been a paragon of success and consistency. At 6-6, with an ERA of 2.45, his biggest concern has been the lack of run support that has plagued him for years. He has struggled in his last 3 starts with hip soreness, limiting the length of his starts. He has also just returned from bereavement leave.

On Saturday, the Yankees lost their sixth of seven games, the Mets scored more than 4 runs for the first time in 8 games (and cost me the Under), and hallelujah, Lindor went 2 for 4.

The wager.

Two very good starters, though it is possible neither is at his best. I am betting on the Mets. A word to the Mets. Score some runs for Stroman for a change; the man just lost his Grandma.. Take the Mets +1 1/2.

Marlins (Alcantara) vs Braves (Muller)

The Marlins were in tough last night but lost in a close one, 1-0. With Acuna getting plunked in the first inning, there may be a little extra on the field between these two teams. The Braves have won three straight and in a variety of ways; 20 runs scored against the Mets and last night’s 1-0 shut-out.

The game sports an interesting pitching matchup. Sandy Alcantara starts for the Marlins. He was 2-3 in June, with a 1.02 WHIP. He struggled with his control in his last start, but in his four previous outings, gave up only 4 ER and 1 HR. Alcantara can pitch well into his games, averaging 7 innings per start. He will need to on Sunday, as the Marlins have run out 6 relievers in each of their last two games.

23 year old Kyle Muller will pitch his third major league start for the Braves. He is a very tall left-hander with dominating stuff. In his previous 2 starts, he has gone 9 innings total, and allowed 1 ER. Control had been an issue in the minors, and Muller has issued a pair of walks in each of his starts.

Both bullpens had a workout last night, and both pitched well. This is not uncharacteristic of Atlanta’s pen and may be a factor on Sunday, considering Muller’s past starts have been only 4 and 5 innings long.

The Braves can hit a ton of homeruns, but please note that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games.

The wager

I am riding the total to go UNDER.

Mets (Taijuan Walker) vs Yankees (Jordan Montgomery)

The Mets, reeling from a 20 run drubbing in Atlanta and a rare DeGrom loss two nights ago, turn to their other ace to restore a bit of equilibrium. Walker (3-2, 2.58, 1.04/ last 7) was a fine pick-up for the Mets this year. He is dependable for innings pitched and earned runs allowed. The Mets are 11-3 with Walker on the mound.

Facing him is Jordan Montgomery who is 2-1 in his last three starts. Montgomery has pitched well against the Mets and has consistently pitching into the 6th inning. Why is this important? Both the Mets and Yankees bullpens have struggled in their last 7 starts. Even Aroldis Chapman was lit up for 4 ER and 3 walks in 1/3 of an inning.

The wager

The Yankees are slumping, the Mets haven’s scored more than 4 runs in seven games, the Yanks struggle against a lefty. I say, bet on the UNDER.

Brewers (Houser) vs Pirates (Brubaker)

Pity the Pirates. Light-hitting defines them. Even at Coors Field, they were shut out 2 of 3 in their last series. The same cannot be said for the Brewers of late. The winners of 9 straight, they have a pair of 14+ runs-scored games in their last 4 starts.

Facing the red-hot Brew crew is Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker. He has been 0-3 in June but has had almost no run support (4 Pirates runs in three starts). He is good for 5 or 6 innings, and has been adequate over his last three starts.

It is tough to find an upside to the Pirates offense, but they did have some success against Brewers’ starter Adrian Houser last time they met. His effectiveness has slid from some early season success. In his last three starts he has given up 11 ER in 16+ total innings. He has three no-decisions in those three starts. Of note, Milwaukee has gone on to win all three of those games.

The Brewers bullpen has been very strong last seven games and are well-rested. The Pirates’ pen has been adequate but ridden hard in their last few games.

The wager

Considering the Brewers’ offense, the Pirates’ well worked bullpen and Pittsburgh’s modest success against Hauser, I’m betting the total to go OVER

LA Dodgers (Gonsolin) vs Nationals Corbin)

Winners of their last five games, the Dodgers open a four game road series against the Nationals. LA hasn’t scored a lot of runs of late, but have had excellent starting pitching and lights-out relief. Washington delivered a 15-6 thumping of the Rays on Wednesday, taking both games of a short series. They are a formidable 8-2 /last 10.

Tony Gonsolin is pitching for the Dodgers. Since returning from the 60 day DL, Gonsolin has been on a short leash, pitching less than 4 innings per start. While he is 0-0 for the season, he has an ERA of 2.77 and the Dodgers have won all four of his starts.

Patrick Corbin is on the hill for the Nationals. Corbin has had a mixed season at 5-6 with a 4.57 ERA.

He has had one very good start of his last three, and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in his last 4 starts.

He has struggled with the long ball this season.

Neither team has had much experience against the other. Corbin has done well vs the Dodgers. The Nationals have never faced Gonsolin.

The wager

 Bet on the total to go under.

Texas Rangers (Dunning) vs Oakland A’s (Manaea)

The A’s struggled mightily on their last road trip. They are 4-6 in their last ten games and have split the first two game of a home series with Texas. The A’s need to win this series to stay within reach of the Astros for 1st place in the division.

Sean Manaea is on the hill for the A’s. He pitched very well in June, with an ERA of1.13, giving up only four runs and one home run for the month. He is also 4-1 in home games for the season.

Facing Manaea is Dane Dunning, who is 1-2 in June and hasn’t lasted more than5 innings in his last 6 starts. He has been very poor (0-4, 7.45 ERA) in away games this season.

Neither builpen has been effective of late, but the A’s will likely see more of Texas's pen against Dunning.

The wager

I believe Manaea will build on Bassit’s fine start on Wednesday. Take the A’s (-1 ½).

The set-up: Do I think that Tampa is going to sweep the Canadiens? I don't. Do I believe that Montreal has what it takes to "steal" a game here from the defending champs? I do as well. This Montreal team has been unbelievable at making adjustments from game-to-game and now desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole, I believe Carey Price and company will find a way to deliver.

The pick: Tampa's been damn good in the playoffs as well. But not perfect. Also note that Montreal is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a three goals or greater road loss to an opponent. Toronto was down 3-1 to the Leafs in the Opening round and never once gave up hope. I look for the Habs to bounce-back and shock the Lightning in their own barn in Game 2.

This is a 10* GAME 2 PLAY-BOOK on the Canadiens.

The set-up: The Dodgers won this game here last night by a score of 3-2 and I expect another really tight affair here as well. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. For me, the starting pitchers are completely even. Honestly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to win here. Kevin Gausman is 8-1 with a 1.49 ERA for San Fran, while Walker Buehler is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA for LA.

The pick: San Francisco is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a one run road loss to an opponent. I think the outright win is absolutely possible, but in the end I'm going to hammer the Giants on the run-line.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE COACHES CORNER on the Giants.

The set-up: Kawhi Leonard hasn't been playing for a while now, yet the Clippers are still finding ways to win. This is a bit of a different story with Trae Young being injured, as he's the team's leading scorer and he's been in the line-up every game since Day 1. Leonard has had issues for years and all season again. However, whether Young suits up or not, I believe that just like the Clippers last night, the way Atlanta is going to upset the Bucks is to push the pace and score some points.

The pick: Milwaukee will be out to do the same. If the Bucks can put up a big enough number in the first half, it could very well be enough to take out the remaining wind from the Hawks in the second. I expect each team to really push the pace in the FIRST HALF.

This is a 10* FIRST HALF PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Bucks/Hawks.

The set-up: The Suns are in the cusp of punching their ticket to the NBA Finals. I think Phoenix will win this series, but it could have its hands full here in Game 5 in trying to put away this desperate Clippers team. LA lost 84-80 in Game 4, and it now has its back against the wall in this elimination contest. 

The pick: I think LA is going to show up and play well defensively and after a poor shooting game last time out, I also expect Paul George to be much more efficient here. The Suns are the better team, but I think this one will come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Clippers.

The set-up: Obviously, the Astros are the better team. However, I think the stage is set for a closer game than what this insane moneyline price would suggest. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but I do think the hungry Orioles can keep it competitive. The visiting side goes with Tom Eshelman (0-1, 7.27 ERA) who was crushed by these very Astros last week for six runs and striking out only one over four innings. Previous to that in his debut he looked good in holding the hard-hitting Jays to one run over five innings. I think Eshelman settles down here, and actually benefits in having already seen the Astros line-up.

The pick: Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.56), gave up one run and struck out four over 7.1 innings in a victory over these very Orioles last Tuesday. Greinke's been great this year, but note, while he's 5-0 with a 2.07 ERA on the road, he's just 3-2 with a 5.27 ERA at home. This one is going to be decided late, so let's take the visitors on the spread option tonight.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Orioles.

The set-up: I've had a lot of success playing on Montreal so far in the playoffs. I think that the Habs have been completely underrated. The Lightning are probably the better team in this series, but they've been less the dominant, needing seven games to get past the Islanders. I think Montreal is better than New York. 

The pick: This is going to be a tight series. I think Game 1 will see Montreal try to do what it's done so often in this playoffs, and that's steal Game 1. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. 

This is a 10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Canadiens.

The set-up: The Hawks had to play from behind the entire in Game 1, but they pushed the pace and got some big shots down the stretch, winning the game, and the total flying "over" the number. Game 2 was a completely defensive affair by the Bucks, as the Hawks once again went down early, but this time it appeared as if they resigned themselves to a loss in that one and they were already looking ahead to Game 3 at home. 

The pick: And that game comes here and now. The Hawks will look to get out and push the pace in this one and to finally not have to play from behind. The Bucks are the highest scoring team in the league and while I do think they'll take a step back on the defensive end here, I expect that this open-paced affair will see them put plenty of points on the board as well. Everything points to a high-scoring contest in Atlanta on Sunday night.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Bucks/Hawks.

The set-up: I'm going to lay the price here and expect a winner of the "rocking chair" variety, similar to the Brewers rather simple 10-4 win yesterday. The visitors go with the volatile Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-4, 6.12 ERA), who gave up six runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Over his last three starts, Gonzalez has now allowed 18 runs. 

The pick: The home side counters with the improving Eric Lauer (1-3, 5.21), who gave up three run over five innings in a no-decision to these very Rockies last week. It was a good start on the road. I think Lauer can build off that performance, and note that he owns a sharp 3.56 ERA in all "day" games this year. Finally, note that the Brewers are 7-1 in their last eight after scoring ten or more runs in a home victory in their previous outing. Lay the price, expect a comfortable victory.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Brewers.