The set-up: St. Louis won Game 1 3-2, which was a “push” on the total, before Dallas won Game 2 by a score of 4-2, which would go “over” the total. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and each has one of the best goaltenders between the pipes. Rookie Jordan Binnington has almost single-handedly carried his team to this point for the Blues. And the same could be said for the Stars Ben Bishop. Dallas has had a big shot advantage overall in this series though and if the Blues can’t keep pace, they’re going to find themselves in a big hole in a big hurry. The playoffs is all about making adjustments and I expect the visitors to come out and push the pace in Game 3. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up as another wide open affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in its last two road games where the total is five or less, while Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four at home when the total is set at five or less. This number is low.

Stars/Blues OVER

10* play

The set-up: Two great young prospects square off in this one, but I think that home field advantage will be significant. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Margevicius, while the home side goes with Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Margevicus (2-2, 3.60 ERA) has been excellent so far, allowing only two runs once thus far. 

Soroka (1-1, 1.69) has been sharp as well in his limited time, posting 13 K’s over 10 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Note that San Diego’s line-up with an injury to short stop Fernando Tatis Jr., who had an 11 game win streak going. Atlanta on the other hand strengthened its bullpen with the acquisition of leftie Jerry Blevins over the weekend. I like Soroka to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Lay the price.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: I’m actually surprised that the Sharks aren’t a bigger favorite here. San Jose took all four regular season meetings with the Avs and they had little trouble pulling away for a 5-2 win in Game 1. I’m expecting a similar final beatdown here as well. The Avs achilles heel all year has been their play on the road where they’re just 19-26, averaging 3.11 goals and allowing 3.13. San Jose on the other hand is 29-17 at home, averaging 3.72 goals and allowing 2.87. 

The pick: Additionally note that Colorado is still only 24-50 in its last 74 as a road underdog in the +110 to +150 range, while San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven vs. teams with losing road records. Also note that the favorite if 40-16 the last 56 in this series. I’m banking on these trends continuing. Lay the reasonable price.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: All things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. The Dodgers go with Rich Hill, while the Pirates counter with Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Hill was 11-5 with a 3.66 ERA last year and he’s made ten career starts vs. Pittsburgh, going 4-2 with a 3.28 ERA.

Williams is 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA and while the Pirates have had success when he’s taken the mound this season, note that he’s 0-1 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA in three career starts vs. LA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 52-83 (-11.4 units) as a road underdog, while LA is 11-4 as a home fav this year. Lay the price with confidence.

LA Dodgers

9* play

The set-up: If you’re watching and wagering on this game, then the story lines and the cast of characters are well known to you. These are two of the most “covered” teams in the NBA over the last few years and their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even a casual NBA fan. I’m not here to to give you a player by player break down, I’m here to tell you why I think this particular game is going to go “over” the number. The Warriors have looked disinterested all year and they suffered a big blow when Boogie Cousins went down with injury in the first round. The Warriors are going to have to rely on their precise three-point shooting to overwhelm teams and they’re going to be forced to match pace with a Rockets team out to avenge last years Western Conference Finals loss. Clearly Houston won’t be sitting back and trying to play defensively. Overall I expect a faster paced game and that means mores shots and more shots = more points.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go over the number in all four games its played in this year in trying to revenge a close loss of three points or less vs. an opponent, while GS has seen the total go over in four of its last five as a home favorite of six points or less. This number is low, play the over.

HOU/GSW OVER

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Islanders looked flat in Game 1 vs. Carolina after an extra few days off from dispatching the Penguins, while the Hurricanes somehow managed to find the energy to win 1-0 in OT after a seven game series victory over Washington, including a double OT Game 7. However, with the “split” accomplished, I think the Hurricanes have a predictable letdown here. The Isles though have no excuses and I expect a much better effort on both ends of the ice. Note that NY took three of the four regular season match-ups.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is still just 2-6 in its last eight as a road dog in the +110 to +150 range, while New York is 7-2 in its last nine home games after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. Lay the price.

New York Islanders

9* play

The set-up: Colorado came from behind in the ninth inning to beat the Braves 9-5 last night. I think the finale of this three-game set sets up as more of a “duel” though. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side counters with Kevin Gausman.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 0-2 with a 12.00 ERA. The good news for Anderson is that there’s only one way his performance can go from here. Anderson has struggled since returning from the DL, but the southpaw owned a respectable 3.59 ERA in all “day” games last year.

Gausman is so far 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA. Over 25 innings he has a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 28:8 K:BB.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go under the number in four of five already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while ATL has seen the total dip under in five of six as a -150 fav or higher. This number is high.

Rockies/Braves UNDER

9* play

The set-up: Both teams dominated in their opening round series. I think we have to take the Bucks’ four game sweep of the Pistons with a grain of salt though, as Detroit played without star Blake Griffin for most of it. Boston steamrolled the Pacers by averaging 99.3 PPG and allowing only 91.8. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG and it allowed 98. 

The pick: Boston comes in peaking at the right time here though. The Celtics have a ton of depth and experience and they have the ability to win this one outright. Note that the C’s are 5-0 ATS their last five on the road, while the Bucks are a terrible 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 when playing on three or more days rest. The outright is possible, but grab the points.

Boston Celtics

9* play

The set-up: Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale has been anything but an ace so far for Boston. But Sale has looked better of late and I think he’ll finally punch one into the win column here. The visitors counter with Tyler Glasnow. After Saturday’s 2-1 loss, look for the Red Sox to respond here. 

The pitchers: Sale is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA thus far. Clearly its been the most difficult stretch of his career. But Sale’s fast ball was finally reaching upwards of 95 MPH in his last start. Also note that he’s 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. the Rays, including going 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts last year. 

Glasnow is 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA so far. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Glasnow, as he’s playing extremely well right now. I just think he’s in the wrong place in the wrong time in this one.

The pick: Note though that Glasnow is however 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts vs. Boston. Look for Glasnow to finally take a step back and for the Red Sox to give Sale more than enough production to earn his first victory.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Friars pulled off the upset in Game 1, but I think the Nationals’ will bounce back in fine fashion with their “ace” on the mound in the second. The visitors go with Eric Lauer, while the home side turns to Stephen Strasburg. 

The pitchers: Lauer (2-3, 4.67 ERA) most recently allowed three runs off six hits with five K’s and two walks over five frames in a loss to Cincinnati on Saturday. Lauer has only 23 K’s over 27 innings to go along with a poor 1.41 WHIP.

Strasburg (2-1, 4.11) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Marlins on Sunday, giving up zero runs off two hits with two walks while striking out 11 over eight innings vs. the Marlins on Sunday. 

The pick: I think Strasburg is “locked in” at the moment. Look for Washington to respond in this favorable matchup after yesterday’s setback. Lay the price.

Washington Nationals

8* play

The set-up: Colorado’s been off for over a week after steam-rolling the Flames in five games. The Avs’ momentum is lost, while San Jose comes in off a dramatic come from behind seven game series win over the Golden Knights. For the most part these teams are evenly matched, but the Avs DO NOT match up well with the Sharks at all. San Jose took all three regular season games between the clubs, posting 14 goals, including 11 at even strength. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 5-1 in its last six as a favorite between -110 and -150, while Colorado is just 2-11 in its last 13 as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. Home ice and momentum make the home side the correct move here.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: I think Jacob DeGrom is is worth the price of admission in this matchup. The visitors counter with Chase Anderson. New York took two of three from the Phillies most recently, while the Brewers were swept in three games by the Cards. Both teams had the day off on Thursday.

The pitchers: Anderson (2-0, 3.00 ERA) allowed one hit over five scoreless in a 5-0 win over the Dodgers in his latest start.

DeGrom (2-2, 3.68) hasn’t pitched since April 14th. Note that he owned a 1.54 ERA at home last season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee is just 5-7 on the road this year, while New York is 20-11 in its last 31 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. I like DeGrom to settle down and benefit from the extra time off. Lay the price.

NY Mets

8* play

The set-up: It’s a favorable matchup for Mariners’ veteran pitcher Marco Gonazles, who faces Rangers Taylor Hear, who has been recalled from Triple-A Nashville to open a four-game series in Seattle. 

The pitchers: Hearn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA and 26 K’s over 20 innings in four starts in Nashville, having also walked ten. 

Gonzales (4-0, 3.32) has to be feeling confident here as he’s 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in five career starts vs. the Rangers. 

The pick: The Rangers are only 31-46 in their last 77 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Mariners are already 14-8 vs. right-handed starters. Lay the price.

Seattle Mariners

10* play

The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of these two clubs? For me it’s hard-nosed defensive play. This is a big game for both sides obviously, as a win will see the Nuggets move onto the second round, while a victory for the Spurs would then push the series to a decisive Game 7. So far Denver has averaged 108.6 PPG in this series, while allowing 103.4. They held the Spurs to 90 points last time out for a second straight win in the series and if they’re going to do it again here to end it tonight. Overall the Spurs have averaged the 103.4 PPG, while conceding 108.6. 

The pick: Will Gregg Popovich make the necessary adjustments to push this to a Game 7? I think this one sets up as a very defensive affair. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring 105 point or more in four straight games, while San Antonio has seen the total dip under in 19 of 29 as a home favorite. This number is a little hight.

Denver Nuggets/San Antonio Spurs UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Arizona won 11-2 yesterday. This is the finale of a four-game set and I’m expecting a much better “pitchers duel” this afternoon. Pittsburgh has lost the first three of this series, getting outscored 25-7 in the process. Two experienced starters go head to head in the finale.

The pitchers: Arizona’s Zack Greinke (3-1, 4.60 ERA) who after a couple of slow starts to open the 2019 campaign, has come on like “gang busters” of late by posting four straight quality starts and posting a sharp 2.81 ERA in the process.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (1-2, 3.12), who like his counterpart today started the season slowly, but who has since “turned it around,” most recently going five innings in a 3-1 victory. 

The pick: Arizona has seen the total go under in 61 of its last 103 “day” games, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in ten of 15 vs. right-handed starters. This number is a little high.

Pittsburgh Pirates/Arizona D-Backs UNDER

9* play

The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points.

LA Clippers

10* play

The set-up: Game 5 saw the Capitals destroy the Hurricanes 6-0 in Washington. Carolina then posted the 4-2 win at home in Game 6, continuing the trend of having the home side win every game in this series to this point. So what’s going to change here? Carolina’s achilles heel has been its play on the road this year and it’s had major difficulties in the nation’s capital over the last few seasons. The defending champs have to be feeling confident in this spot.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is still only 14-38 in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Washington is 35-17 in its last 52 following a loss of three or more goals. Carolina has outscored Washington 12-3 at home, but its been outscored 14-5 in three games so far in Washington. Lay the price.

Washington Capitals

10* play

The set-up: The Cards have taken the first two games of this series and I look for the surging home side to complete the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Adam Wainwright. 

The pitchers: Chacin (2-2, 5.92 ERA) won his first two starts before taking back to back road losses. He then gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Friday.

Wainwright (1-2, 4.74) has to be feeling confident here as he’s enjoyed a lot of success vs. the Brewers throughout his career, going 15-9 with three shutouts and a sharp 2.36 ERA. 

The pick: One player to keep your eyes on for the home side is the red hot Paul DeJong. The Cards’ short stop is hitting .378 in nine games vs. Milwaukee this year with three home runs while driving in six. Brewers’ slugger Christian Yellich is 0 for 6 in this series and 1 for 9 in the past three vs. the Cards. I think Wainwright is the correct call here. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: The Yankees won 4-3 in extra innings last night and I like them to get the job done here as well, despite being down some key sluggers and players offensively. The Angels are also dealing with injuries, but overall this is a matchup which favors New York on the mound. The Yanks hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side counters with Chris Stratton. 

The pitchers: German (3-1, 2.37 ERA) who was bumped up to make this start because of last night’s marathon 14 inning game. German has to be feeling confident here as he’s jumped out to an early good start, posting the 2.37 ERA to go along with a 0.84 WHIP and 23 K’s over 19 innings of work overall. 

Stratton (0-1, 7.00) was lucky to earn a no-decision in his last start vs. the Mariners on Thursday, allowing six runs off seven hits over five innings. Over 18 innings Stratton has now allowed 14 earned runs leaving him with a horrible 2.00 WHIP.

The pick: As bad as the Yanks are injured, this pick is based entirely on the starting pitching. Great value, play on the visitors.

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points.

Brooklyn Nets

10* play

The set-up: With the Bruins sitting as a -140 home favorite in Game 7 of the first round vs. the Leafs, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. And they are. I could easily write a convincing argument for either of these teams to come out on top, but I think that the value lies with the hungry visiting underdog. Toronto lost 4-2 at home in Game 6, but it’s taken two of three in Boston already this season. The Leafs have a chance to revenge last years playoff loss and I expect them to make the most of it. Keep your eyes on Toronto’s Auston Mathews, who has scored in four straight games. The goaltenders (Frederik Anderson for the Leafs and Tuukka Rask for the Bruins) are a “wash” in my opinion. 

The pick: Toronto though is 21-10 (+5.6 units) this year after allowing four goals or more, while Boston is 1-4 (-4.8 units) in its last five when tied in a playoff series. I think many will be on the Bruins, but I’m going the other way and backing the “hungrier” team. 

Toronto Maple Leafs

10* play

The set-up: Houston’s second half push has carried over into the first round of the playoffs. The Rockets and Jazz split four regular season meetings, but James Harden and company have stormed out to a quick 3-0 lead and if the Jazz don’t get something figured out on the offensive end, there season will end here and now. Clearly Houston will have its most difficult fight tonight, as the fourth game is always the most difficult to earn (in most cases that is.) Utah is a very defensive minded club, but it’s had its own issues slowing down the Rockets, losing 122-90, 118-98 and 105-96. I just think that from an overall “situational” stand point, that this one definitely sets up fantastically as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Additionally note that Houston has seen the total soar over the number in ten of 15 as a road favorite of six points or less, while Utah has seen the total go over the number in eight of 11 this year in revering a home loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, play the over.

Rockets/Jazz OVER

10* play

The set-up: This has been a competitive back-and-forth series and I’m expecting a competitive back-and-forth contest here. Las Vegas has a chance to finish off this series here and now, but the Sharks took a decisive 5-2 win in Game 5 and clearly they won’t be going down without a fight today either. These are two very defensive minded clubs, but I believe we’ll see a very high-paced, wide-open affair today and I believe that’s going to help immensely in this total going over the number.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go over the number in 18 of 29 this year after a win by two goals or more, while Las Vegas has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 home games when the total is set at six or higher. All signs point to a shootout. Play the over.

VEGAS/Sharks OVER

10* play

The set-up: Both games in yesterday’s double-header flew over the number, with the Tribe taking an 8-4 win in the first game and the Braves rallying late for an 8-7 win in the second. I like the Indians to bounce back in the rubber match tonight (as stated in my free play). So far Atlanta pitcher Max Fried has been exemplary, but I think he runs into a buzz saw here vs. this red hot Indians’ offense. He’ll also have his hands full with vs. his counterpart Shane Bieber.

The pitchers: Fried, who is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA who has so far thrown three straight strong outings, faces a difficult task throwing opposite Bieber, who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Bieber most recently gave up one run over six innings in a win over he M’s on Tuesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven on the road, while Cleveland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six vs. southpaws. Despite these pitchers getting out to respective “hot” starts, I think these offenses continue to shine.

Braves/Indians OVER

10* play

The set-up: Milwaukee halted a three-game losing streak with a 5-0 win yesterday, but I think that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers offer great value to bounce back in the finale today vs. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers.

The pitchers: Woodruff, who is 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA has been decent so far, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Kershaw is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA, who gave up a single home run in his first start back: "Definitely a good first outing back," Kershaw said. "I'll take that, especially the way we ended it. It was a fun night all around, other than that first inning. Definitely helps me remember I can do it. Any time first time out, you just want to make sure you can get hitters out again. 'You can do this, you can succeed. Do it efficiently.' Things to work on, which is good, but overall, a good first step."

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a huge 66-33 (+12.4 units) in its last 99 “day” games, while Milwaukee is interestingly only 23-34 (-6.4 units) in its last 57 as a home underdog. Look for Kershaw to continue his progression and lay the short price.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: So far home ice has meant everything in this series. The Capitals easily took both Games 1 and 2 at home, before the Hurricanes returned the favor on their home ice. Both teams followed a same regular season pattern in that they started slowly and then came on like “gang busters” to end the regular season. It wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game, but as stated off the top, so far “home ice” has been a big difference maker in this series and I see no reason at all for that pattern to snap here.   

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is just 3-8 in its last 11 after back-to-back home victories, while Washington is 35-13 (+19.7 units) in its last 48 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, lay this reasonable price.

Washignton Capitals

10* play

The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4. 

The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: I like the Pirates to build off their 4-1 win over the Giants in yesterday’s series opener. San Francisco has struggled with offensive consistency to open the 2019 campaign, and facing a motivated Jameson Taillon at home isn’t what the doctor ordered to get it turned around. The visitors counter with the volatile Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Holland (1-2, 4.09 ERA) most recently gave up four runs off four hits with four walks over six innings in a loss to Colorado on Sunday. The 32 year old has allowed a home run in each of his four outings thus far this season. 

Taillon (0-2, 3.43) gave up three runs over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. Chicago on Monday. Taillon was 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA last year, including posting a sharp 2.99 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is an atrocious 22-46 (-13.8 units) in its last 68 as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 27-8 (+13.8 units) in its last 35 as a favorite of -150 or more. This one has rout written all over it.

Pittsburgh Pirates

10* play

The set-up: Do or die for the No. 1 seed. Colorado leads 3-1 and if Calgary doesn’t find a way to win this one, it’ll become the second top seed in the Western Conference in three years to be ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Philipp Grubauer managed a Game 2 win for the Avs in Calgary, but overall he’s just 1-2-0 North of the border. “We’re not done yet,” Flames’ captain Mark Giordano to the Calgary Sun. “We have a big home game coming up and then get it back here.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is still just 18-27 (-6.5 units) vs. teams with winning records, while Calgary is 23-15 (+4.9 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. With the home town crowd behind them, I expect the Flames to step up and produce their best effort of this series. Look for the Avs to pack up their tents early as they head home for Game 6.

Calgary Flames

10* play

The set-up: Chicago had Thursday off and it’s won seven of ten. The Cubs come in with considerable confidence after sweeping the Fish on the road. So far Kyle Hendricks has struggled for Chicago, but I think the veteran will bounce back here in this favorable matchup. The Diamondbacks have also been rolling, but after a three-game sweep in Atlanta, including a 4-1 win on Thursday afternoon, I think the visitors take a step back here with Merrill Kelly on the hill.

The pitchers: Hendricks (0-3, 5.40 ERA) has completed only five innings once in three starts this year. He is however 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four career starts vs. the D-Backs, allowing 17 hits over 25 1/3’s frames opposed, striking out 25 and walking six.

Kelly (1-1, 3.79) has been decent, striking out 17 and walking three over 19 innings so far this year. Clearly he faces a stiff test in this difficult road venue this afternoon though.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is still only 3-6 (-2.3 units) this year vs. right-handed starters, while Chicago is 69-48 the last two years after allowing two runs or less in its previous contest (shut out the Marlins twice in its series sweep.) Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: A great price for a desperate home team. It’s “do or die” for the disappointing Sharks, who have squandered home ice advantage and likely this series. However, I do indeed believe that San Jose will dig deep here and find a way to send this one back to Las Vegas for another game. 

The pick: Also note that Vegas is just 1-5 in its last six on the road still. San Jose was knocked out of the playoffs by the Knights last year and I expect it to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight to get back into this series. No need to over think this one. Great value on the hungry Sharks.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: The Nets came out and shocked the 76ers in Game 1 103-92, but the 76ers bounced back and stormed to a 145-123 win in Game 2. These teams split four regular season meetings, but I think the 76ers will build off their Game 2 win and once again come in focused on the task at hand. Philadelphia likely took the Nets for granted in Game 1 and it was close at half in Game 2 as well. However the 76ers rolled in the second half and I believe that momentum is carried over. 

The pick: While this is indeed a money-line play, I think it’s still interesting to note that Philly is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, while Brooklyn is just 9-10 ATS as a home dog this season. I’m banking on the visitors winning this one outright.

Philadelphia 76ers (Moneyline)

9* play

The set-up: I think the Flames are going to bounce back here with a solid win on the road and tie this series up at two. Flames’ goaltender Mike Smith stopped 50 of 56 shots in the Game 3 setback. Calgary only mustered 29 of its own, but Smith is a difference maker here in my opinion. The veteran has a 2.87 GAA through the first three games, while Avs’ net minder Philipp Grubauer has a 2.24 GAA over his last two games. 

The pick: Calgary dominated the Pacific and its strength was its play on the road. After its big offensive outburst in Game 3, I expect the Avs’ to come back down to Earth here. Additionally note that Calgary is 16-7 (+8.9 units) this season after allowing four goals or more, while Colorado is just 11-20 (-12.2 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game. 

Calgary Flames

10* play

The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.

Utah Jazz

10* play

The set-up: The Cubs are rolling after a lacklustre start and with a chance to complete the sweep, I expect them to get the job done with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill in this particular matchup. The visitors go with veteran Cole Hamels, while the Fish hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara.

The pitchers: Hamels (2-0, 3.79 ERA) has given up just three runs over his last 14 innings of work. After a shaky opener, Hamels is “locked in” now and I don’t see any reason not to believe that he can’t carry that momentum over here.

Alcantara (1-1, 4.24) looked good in his opener, but since then he’s allowed 15 hits, seven walks and eight runs over nine frames of work.

The pick: Chicago’s offense is rolling. The Marlins can’t hit anything right now. After a poor first start, Hamels is playing at an elite level right now, while his counterpart is clearly trending in the other direction. All things considered, I feel this line could/should easily be a lot larger.

Chicago Cubs

9* play

The set-up: Indians’ ace Carlos Carrasco has gotten out to a terrible start to the year, so it won’t be hard for him to put forth his best effort thus far. Carrasco has a favorable matchup here though in Seattle and I expect him to easily get the better of his counterpart Erik Swanson. The Mariners have lost five of their last six, their hot start quickly fading in the rear-view mirror.

The pitchers: Carrasco (1-2, 12.60 ERA) is 4-3 with a 4.10 ERA in eight appearances vs. Seattle. 

Swanson (0-0, 9.00) is making his first major league start. 

The pick: Carrasco was 8-6 with a 2.96 ERA on the road last year. Look for the hard-throwing right-hander to settle down and punch his first one in the win column this season. 

Cleveland Indians

9* play

The set-up: Walker Buehler has so far struggled for the Dodgers, while Sonny Gray has looked decent for the Reds. Despite that, I think that anemic visiting side will have a difficult time at Chavez Ravine this afternoon. Cincinnati enters this game 28th in the league in runs score (56) and on-base percentage (.281). 

The pitchers: Buehler (1-0, 8.25 ERA) was 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA last year. Buehler though will look to return to form vs. the Reds, as he’d give up two runs over six innings vs. them in his lone start last year. 

Gray (0-2, 2.03) went four innings vs. Miami on Wednesday and had to leave early after a come-backer off his leg. 

The pick: Both sluggers Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner are expected back in the line-up for the Dodgers. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence. 

LA Dodgers

8* play

The set-up: After Joc Pederson’s walk-off two-run home run in the ninth inning gave the Dodgers’ a 4-3 victory last night, I believe that the home side will carr that momentum over here. 

The pitchers: The home side goes with Kenta Maeda (2-1, 4.76 ERA), who has looked decent overall, but who comes in off a “dud” vs. the Cards on Wednesday, allowing five runs over six innings. 

The visitors turn to Tyler Mahle (0-0, 0.82) who has given up just one run over his first 11 innings of work this season. Mahle had success vs. the Dodgers last year, but overall he was 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road last year.

The pick: Note that the Reds are still 0-5 on the road this year and just 5-9 vs. right-handed starters. Note as well that the Dodgers are 7-2 vs. teams with losing records this season. Lay the price with confidence.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series.

The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: The Reds come to town off a 9-5 loss to the Cardinals in Mexico and I think they’ll have a difficult time in Chavez Ravine tonight as well. LA won’t be taking anything for branded here as its 7-1 win over the Brewers yesterday snapped a six-game slide. 

The pitchers: The Reds go with Luis Castillo (1-1, 0.92 ERA) who hasn’t given up a run in 12 innings, but who clearly faces a stiff task tonight.

The home side counters with ace Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 0.00), who makes his first start of the year.

The pick: Note that LA has hit at least one home run in 29 consecutive home games. I like the Dodgers to build off yesterday’s win and for Kershaw to at the very least, match Castillo inning for inning tonight. I have no problem laying this price. 

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: It’s Game 3 of the Best of 7 series and while the first two games have fallen “under” the number, I believe that the switch in venue and the overall situation will lead to a higher-scoring affair in Game 3. Boston comes in averaging 3.80 goals over its last ten games. The Bruins though have allowed 3.40 goals over that same stretch. Toronto will be wary about having a letdown here, as it’s 0-7 in its last seven off a win. The Leafs though are 23-17 at home this season, averaging 3.56 goals and allowing 3.00 goals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 24 after a win by two goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total go over in 18 of 29 vs. the divisional opponents already. This number is low, play the “over.”

Maple Leafs/Bruins OVER

10* play

The set-up: San Jose took Game 1, but the Knights bounced back and earned the coveted “split” at the Shark Tank in Game 2. Now back home, few teams enjoy a bigger “home ice advantage” than the Golden Knights and I look for them to indeed take advantage here. San Jose went just 3-9 down the stretch of the regular season and it’s now just 4-10 in its last 14. Sharks’ goalie Martin Jones was 14-12 with a 3.14 GAA on the road. Overall San Jose was 21-20 on the road this season, averaging 3.44 goals and allowing 3.44 in those contests. Knights’ net minder Marc Andre Fleury is 18-15 with a 2.40 GAA at home. Overall Vegas was 24-17 at home, averaging 3.20 goals and allowing 2.41 in those contests. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vegas is 26-8 in its last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, while the Sharks are only 2-5 in their last seven in Las Vegas. Lay the reasonable price.

VEGAS Golden Knights

10* play

The set-up: The Astros come in off a 3-1 win over Seattle, as the Mariners hot start has start to quickly fade. Houston on the other hand has won eight straight and I believe it’ll find a way to get the job done in the series finale as well. 

The pitchers: Houston sends Gerrit Cole (0-2, 3.32 ERA) to the hill and he most recently allowed three runs off four hits with three walks while striking out six over seven innings vs. New York on Tuesday. Over 19 innings of work Cole now has 25 K’s.

The home side counters with Marco Gonzalez (4-0, 3.16) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a win over the toothless Royals on Tuesday. Gonzalez has been sharp so far, but all good things must come to an end. Difficult match-up here and I look for Gonzalez to take a step back.

The pick: Houston slugger Jose Altuve has homered in five straight games. Look for the hot-hitting Astros to continue to build momentum with another solid victory today.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: The Thunder ended the regular season on a five-game win streak. Their reward now is a matchup vs. a Blazers side which defeated it four times this year. Overall the Thunder average 114.5 PPG, while allowing 111.1 (OKC allowed 113.2 over its final five games of the season.) Portland is down its center, but it still closed with three straight wins. Overall the Blazers average 114.7 PPG, while allowing 110.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 when playing with three or more days rest, while Portland is 24-17 ATS at home this season and 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 130 points or more. Portland is tough at home and I look for its depth to prove to be too much for the Thunder to handle down the stretch. Beyond its two superstars, OKC lacks punch. I’m playing the home side on the money line.

Portland Trail Blazers (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: These were two of the better defensive clubs in the league, but I expect this one to sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The Spurs come in on top form having won 15 of their final 20 games. The Nuggets on the other hand dropped four of their final seven down the stretch. These teams are evenly matched and they go on to split their season series. 

The pick: While their four regular season games all went “under” the number, the numbers this time around suggest a higher-scoring shootout finally. As note that the Spurs have seen the total go “over” in 25 of 41 on the road already this season and in seven of their last ten in the first round of the playoffs, while Denver has seen the total soar “over” in seven of its last nine home games when the total in the contest is set between 209.5 and 211.5. This number is low, play the “over.”

Spurs/Nuggets OVER

10* play

The set-up: Arizona enters having lost three straight after last night’s 2-1 loss to the Friars, but I think this line could easily be a lot larger because of what I feel to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this price is trying to lead us to believe.

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Matt Strahm (0-2, 7.04 ERA), who gave up five runs off eight hits over 2 2/3-s innings in a loss to Arizona on April 1st. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Diamondbacks. 

The home side goes with Merrill Kelly (1-1, 2.57) who gave up five hits and three runs over six innings in a win over the Padres on April 1st. Kelly comes in off a hard-luck 1-0 loss to Boston, going eight innings and allowing four hits and one run while striking out nine and walking none. 

The pick: All things considered, I believe this line could/should easily be much larger. Play on the desperate home side. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

10* play

The set-up: This is a difficult matchup for Carolina. It always has been. After going 0-4 in the regular season vs. the defending champs, the Hurricanes whimpered to a 4-2 loss in Game 1 as well. Carolina is just 8-21 in its last 29 vs. the Capitals, including only 2-9 in its last 11 in the Nation’s capital. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 0-4 in its last four as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range, while Washington is 5-1 in its last six vs. teams with winning records. This line could/should easily be much larger in my professional opinion.

Washington Capitals

10* play

The set-up: You’d think that Philadelphia would have a clear advantage in this matchup, but in the regular season that wasn’t the case, as these team’s split four meetings. Overall Brooklyn averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 112.3. D’Angelo Russell averages 26.7 points and 8.1 assists per game. The 76ers average 115.2 PPG and they allow 112.5. Joel Embiid averages 28 points and 11.6 boards per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though but Brooklyn is 25-16 ATS on the road this year, while Philadelphia is just 27-31 ATS as a favorite this year. These two team’s are both very deep and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

Brooklyn Nets

9*

The set-up: The opener of this three-game set was snowed out yesterday, meaning these teams now play a shortened two-game series. While each of these starters has looked decent early, I think they take a step back today.

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (1-1, 2.25 ERA), who enters off a 3-1 win over the toothless Royals. 

The home side goes with Michael Pineda (1-0, 2.00) who makes his third start for the Twins, picking up his first win over Philadelphia on Saturday. 

The pick: Note that Minnesota has scored 20 runs on 26 hits over three games before this latest break and there’s no reason not to think it won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. This number is just a little low in my opinion. 

Tigers/Twins OVER

9* play

The set-up: After yesterday’s upset loss (called because of rain after seven innings), I look for the injured but still dangerous home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Chicago broke a five-game slide with yesterday’s win, but the Yankees are now out to snap a four-game losing streak of their own. 

The pitchers: The home side goes with veteran CC Sabathia (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who went 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA in 29 starts las year. Sabathia enters with a 19-7, 3.75 ERA lifetime record vs. Chicago.

The visitors counter with Ivan Nova (0-1, 7.71) who was rocked for seven runs off seven hits over 2 1/3’s innings in a 12-5 loss to the Mariners on Sunday. 

The pick: I like Sabathia to get the job done in his season debut vs. the volatile Nova. Lay the price.

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: The Sharks won Game 1 5-2 and I’m expecting another wide-open affair in Game 2. Overall Las Vegas finished 13th in the league in scoring with an average of 3.00 GPG, so I’m expecting a better offensive performance this time around from the desperate visiting side. The Sharks outshot the Knights 33-26 in Game 1 as they’re out to avenge a second round exit from the playoffs last year at the hands of the Golden Knights. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas has seen the total go “over” the number in 23 of its last 41 road games when the total is 6 or higher, while San Jose has seen the total go “over” in 17 of 28 this season after a win by two goals or more. This one has “shootout” written all over it. Play the “over.”

VEGAS/SJ Sharks OVER

9* play

The set-up: Both teams have struggled of late. I think that home field will play a significant role in this one. This is the first time these teams have met since their seven-game NLCS last fall, a series which the Dodgers also won. 

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to Corbin Burnes (0-1, 9.90 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs off six hits, including three home runs and three walks over five innings while striking out six in a 14-8 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. 

The home side counters with Julio Urias (0-0, 3.12) gave up three runs off four hits over 3.2 innings in a win over the Rockies on Sunday, receiving a no-decision for his effort. 

The pick: I think Urias out duels his volatile counterpart and I like the Dodgers to get back on track in this favorable situation. Lay it.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: The Jets fell apart late in Game 1 and let the Blues steal their thunder, but I look for the home side to easily bounce back in Game 2. The main objective of any visiting team to open a playoff series is to simply earn a “split” of the first two games, as that ensure that it takes back the home ice advantage. With that goal accomplished, I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done here. Additionally, considering the experience and how well the Jets actually play at home, there’s no question that we’re getting a great price here also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but despite earning the win in Game 1, the Blues are still only 4-11 the last 15 in this series. The Jets on the other hand are 7-3 in their last ten when playing on one days rest. Look for the desperate and revenge minded home side to lay everything on the ice, and lay the reasonable price.

Winnipeg Jets

10* play

The set-up: The Angels have won six straight, but I think they’ll stumble in the opener of this difficult road trip and in the National League setting. LA also leaves the coast without slugger Mike Trout in the line-up, who was recently injured. The under-achieving and hungry Cubs will look to take advantage. Also note that it’s unseasonably cold in Chicago right now, which will clearly effect the team from California.

The pitchers: The Angels hand the ball to Tyler Skaggs (1-1, 2.45 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over 6.1 innings in a win over the Rangers on Saturday. 

The home side counters with Cole Hamels (1-0, 5.73) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings while striking out five in a 14-8 win over the Brewers on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 1-5 (-4.2 units) on the road this year, while Chicago is 26-17 the L2 years in all interleague contests. I’m laying the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: The Capitals took all four regular season meetings with the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes looked great over the second game, going 31-12-2 since the New Year, but I think they’ll stumble in Game 1 in this difficult road venue. The defending champs also played very well over the second half and now that the post-season is here, there’s no reason not to think that the defending champs won’t be able to make another deep run: “It’s going to be different games than the regular year,” star Capitals players Alexander Ovechkin commented yesterday. “But, it’s a good thing we have experience. What we did last year, we know exactly how we have to play and hopefully we’ll play like that again.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 4-1 in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Carolina is 1-4 in its last five a road dog and only 17-38 in its last 55 when playing on three or more days rest. I think this is a very fair price.

Washington Capitals

10* play

The set-up: The Cubs have lost eight of 11 to open the year, but they have a chance to win their first series of the season with a victory today. Chicago won the series opener 10-0, before falling 5-2 on Wednesday. While he struggled in his first start, I think that Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana will settle down here and deliver the goods.

The pitchers: The Pirates hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who struck out eight over seven scoreless vs. the light-hitting Reds earlier.

Quintana (0-1, 10.29) comes off an outing to forget in which he allowed eight runs over three innings to the Brewers. Quintana has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Bucs though, having gone 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts vs. them.

The pick: Keep your eyes on Cubs’ slugger Jason Heyward, who has a .371 average after three hits yesterday, including a solo home run. Good price on the hungry home side here. Lay it.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: While yesterday’s game fell under the total in the Tigers bounce back victory, all signs point to a higher-scoring slug-fest in the finale on Thursday afternoon in my opinion.

The pitchers: The Indians send out Shane Bieber (0-0, 3.38 ERA), who gave up two runs off two hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Jays on Friday. 

The home side counters with Spencer Turnbull (0-1, 4.09) who gave up three runs off six hits while striking out ten over six innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. So far Turnbull has one “dud” and one “gem” under his belt in 2019.

The pick: The Tigers have won six of their last seven and they had ten hits off Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer yesterday, who had allowed only one hit over his first two starts combined. "We've been struggling offensively and we're just trying to get better game by game as an offense and stay within ourselves," Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters after the game. "I think some guys are starting to use the whole field, staying on balls, some really good two-strike at-bats. We're cutting down on our strikeouts a little bit and if we do that a little better we'll get a lot more hits."

Indians/Tigers OVER

9* play

The set-up: Despite Mike Trout leaving with a groin injury in last night’s win, I think this one sets up nicely for the home side and I look for it to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday as well.

The pitchers: The Brewers turn to Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 6.00 ERA), who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over four innings while striking out eight. 

The home side counters with Felix Pena (0-1, 5.40) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Friday. 

The pick: For arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” Take it for what you will though, but Milwaukee is just 2-7 in its last nine interleague road games following a loss, while LA is already 4-1 at home this season. I’m banking on the good times continuing to roll for the surging Angels.

LA Angels

10* play

The set-up: I think these two hungry Western Conference foes push the pace from start to finish in this and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Overall the Stars average 2.5 goals and allow 2.4, while Nashville averages 2.9 goals and it concedes 2.6. Ben Bishop is in net for the Stars and the Predators go with Pekka Rinne. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Dallas has seen the total go to “over” the number in three of four this year on the road when the total is five or less, while Nashville has seen the total fly “over” in six of its last eight after a three-game unbeaten streak. I expect these two normally defensive minded clubs to open things up in Game 1.

Predators/Stars OVER

The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points.

Miami Heat

10* play

The set-up: I like the Pens to pull off the slight upset in Game 1. The Islanders weren’t supposed to be this good after trading Jon Tavares to the Leafs, but a hot start and a good run at home and on the road has New York back in the playoffs, but the veteran experience and depth that Sidney Crosby and company bring to the table will prove to be the difference in my opinion (in Game 1 anyways!) Overall the Pens went 21-20 on the road, averaging 3.32 goals and allowing 2.76. The Isles were 24-17 at home, averaging 2.80 goals and allowing 2.27 in those contests. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New York is just 1-5 in its last six when playing on three or more days rest, while Pittsburgh is 22-7 in its last 29 in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play the visitors.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10* play

The set-up: Two struggling teams collide in the second game of a three game series. The Reds delivered a 14-0 beatdown in Game 1 and I think the home is primed to do it again here as well.

The pitchers: The Fish hand the ball to Trevor Richards (0-1, 3.00 ERA) who has two quality starts under his belt and nothing to show for it really. I think he’ll have his hands full here vs. the hungry Reds line-up though.

The home side counters with Tyler Mahle (0-0, 0.00) who makes his second start after going six scoreless vs. the Pirates last Thursday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Marlins are just 60-104 (-18.7 units) on the road, while the Reds are 7-2 in their last nine home games after winning and posting 12 or more runs in their previous outing. This line could easily be higher.

Cincinnati Reds

9* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Probably not. But the Lakers look more competitive now than at any other time this season and after back-to-back victories, I look for the home side to push the Blazers to brink here as well. The Blazers come in off a tough home win over the Nuggets and a “letdown/trap” looks imminent in my opinion. Note that Denver was playing without its top three players as well in that one, as Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray were all sitting out. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 7-8 ATS this year as well following a division game, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. 

LA Lakers

The set-up: After yesterday’s 4-3 win, I think the Astros find a way to get the job done here as well. The Yanks have been playing well, but the injury issues (Didi Gregorius, Troy Tulowitzki, CC Sabathia, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Dellin Betances) is once again becoming an issue vs. elite competition. 

The pitchers: The Yanks turn to Jonathan Loaisiga (0-0, 2.25 ERA) gave up one run off one hit and three walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Tigers in his last start. Loaisiga remains in the rotation out of necessity until Sabathia returns. 

The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (0-2, 3.00) who gave up three runs while striking out nine over six innings in a loss to Texas on Wednesday. Cole looks to punch his first win of the year after finishing 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA last season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 11-14 in its last 25 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Houston is 6-2 in its last eight after a one run home victory. Lay the price with confidence. 

Houston Astros

9* play

The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

Memphis Grizzlies

10* play

The set-up: The Reds are 1-8 to open the year, and the Marlins are 3-7. Two decent pitchers go head-to-head in this one, but I think these teams will easily combine to push this total over the total once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: The Fish go with Jose Urena (0-2, 10.38 ERA) who gave up five earned runs off seven hits and one walk over four innings in a loss to the Mets on Tuesday. Over 8.2 innings of work Urena has given up ten earned runs so far this year. 

The home side counters with Luis Castillo (0-1, 1.42) who has given up just two runs over his first 12.2 innings of work. Castillo though has perhaps been a bit “lucky” considering he’s walked seven and hit a batter over that small sample size. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well by Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in 25 of its last 41 following a one run loss, while Cincinnati has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last eight off six straight losses vs. division rivals. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Marlins/Reds OVER

9* play

The set-up: The Indians’ Corey Kluber has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season, but I think he’ll bounce back here in this favorable situation. Tigers’ veteran Jordan Zimmermann has looked sharp early, but I think he’ll have difficulty with this surging Indians side.

The pitchers: Kluber (0-2, 5.23 ERA) will be trying to slow down a Tigers team which has won fig straight. Kluber has to be feeling confident here as he’s 11-7 with a 3.55 ERA in 25 career appearances vs. Detroit. Last year he won all three starts, allowing only three runs over 23 1/3’s innings to go along with 26 K’s. 

Zimmermann (0-0, 0.66) has allowed only one run over 13 2/3’s innings of work, but the Tigers have given him no support thus far. 

The pick: Note though that Zimmermann has been destroyed by the Tribe throughout his career, going 0-5 with a ballooned 11.08 ERA. I think Kluber settles down and I look for Zimmermann to come back down to Earth. Lay the price.

Clveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation go head to head here and I think that points will not surprisingly be at a premium in this one. Texas Tech has advanced by beating UNT 72-57, and then by posting impressive defensive performances over Buffalo, Michigan and high-flying Gonzaga. The Red Raiders then capped off their journey with the 61-51 win over Michigan State in the Final Four. Virginia was knocked out of the first round last year, but this season it continues to ride it’s No. 1 ranked defense. Virginia has navigated some close calls as well to get here, including over Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue and the thriller over Auburn with no time left on the clock. 

The pick: Take it for what you all as well, but Texas Tech has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of ten neutral four games already this year and in four of its last five when playing with one or less days rest, while Virginia has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 17 after a non-conference game and in not surprisingly 11 of its last 17 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest.

UVA/TTU UNDER

10* play

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-1 home win over the Padres, while the Dodgers rolled to an impressive 12-6 win at Colorado. While Hyun-Jin Ryu has been excellent to start the year, his counterpart Miles Mikolas has been a train wreck. 

The pitchers: The Dodgers go with Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 2.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with five strikeouts and no walks over seven innings in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. Over his first two starts he has 13 punch outs. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (0-1, 7.20) who has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season. Over two starts he’s given up eight runs off 12 hits. Last year Mikolas was 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA, so clearly he’s struggling with command issues or something else right now.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in three of four vs. right-handed starters this year, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low.

Dodgers/Cards OVER

10* play

The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well. 

The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off an impressive 133-128 road win over Milwaukee and I think it carries that momentum over here. Indiana comes in off a 117-97 home loss to Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this surging Nets side. To say this is a “revenge” game as well would be a huge understatement, as the Pacers have won nine straight in the series, including two already this season. Neither team can let the foot off the gas as the playoffs loom, but from a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up fantastic for the visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing SU record, while the Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I’m grabbing the points, but I won’t be shocked by an outright upset.

Brooklyn Nets

9* play

The set-up: The Astros look for the sweep of the visiting A’s here. I believe that Brad Peacock has the advantage over his counterpart Mike Fiers on the hill this afternoon.

The pitchers: Peacock (1-0, 1.35 ERA) gave up one run with five K’s over seven innings in a 2-1 win over the Rangers in his first start. 

Fiers (2-1, 3.00 ERA), who has not given up a run over his last two starts, but who is 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. 

The pick: Oakland’s bats have gone cold, which doesn’t bode well in this difficult road venue vs. the red hot Peacock. I look for Fiers to take a step back here finally. Lay the price with confidence. 

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.

The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

The set-up: Chicago is coming off a 6-1 beatdown at home over the Stars and it plays with motivation here as well as it looks to somewhat spoil the Predators parade. Nashville is in control of its own destiny right now as it heads into the final game of the year. If the Predators win this game, then they win the Central Division. But if the Hawks can pull off the upset, then the Predators have to sweat out the Jets game going on tonight as well. If Nashville loses and Winnipeg wins, then the Jets will take the division. It’s a big game for the home side and I don’t expect it to sit back on its heels. With both teams pushing the pace, I look for this total to blast past the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go over in 21 of 33 vs. teams with winning records this year, while Nashville has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five vs. teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the “over.”

Blackhawks/Predators OVER

10* play

The set-up: The White Sox as a slight dog at home vs. the overachieving Mariners? I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the under-rated underdog. Chicago is getting big time production from slugger Yoan Moncada, who is hitting .458 with two home runs and then RBIs. Chicago won 10-8 in yesterday’s series opener and Moncada was 2 for 4 with four RBI’s. While the Mariners have 21 home runs through nine games, they also have 16 errors. 

The pitchers: Seattle turns to Mike Leake (1-0, 3.00 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Red Sox on Saturday. Last year he was 10-10 with a 4.36 ERA. 

Chicago counters with Lucas Giolito (1-0, 2.70) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. 

The pick: I like Giolito to carry over his momentum and I like the White Sox to do the same after last night’s win. 

Chicago White Sox

10* play

The set-up: This is the last game of the year for the Ducks. They’re 34-37-10 overall this season, but 6-3-1 in their last ten and they currently ride a two game win streak. Anaheim has been a “different” team at home this season, going 18-14-8 in front of the home town crowd. The Kings are 30-41-9 on the season and 5-4-1 in their last ten. Overall they’re 14-20-6 on the road. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Kings are a poor 5-12 in their last 17 as a road underdog in the +110 to +150 range, while the Ducks are 43-13 in their last 56 as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. I expect the home side to send the fans home happy in the final game of a disappointing season. Lay the price.

Anaheim Ducks

10* play

The set-up: The Astros return to Houston for their first home series of the season. So far they’ve dropped five of six games. Oakland has been playing great, but I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this hungry and determined home side.

The pitchers: The Astros turn to Collin McHugh (0-1, 3.60 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits with nine K’s over five frames in an unfortunate setback to the Rays. Overall he’s 8-1 with a 2.84 ERA over 17 appearances vs. the A’s. 

The visitors counter with Frankie Montas (1-0, 1.50) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a 2-1 win over the Angels in his season debut. Note though that over four career starts Montas is 1-1 with a ballooned 7.74 ERA vs. the Astros. 

The pick: I like McHugh at home and all things considered, I believe this line could/should easily be much larger. Lay the price.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1. 

The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning. 

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Knights have a 2-1 lead in the season series, however it was the Coyotes which scored the 5-2 road win on February 12th in the most recent match-up. Arizona though comes in off a deflating 3-1 home loss to LA on Tuesday and I think it’s ripe for the picking here as well. The Knights on the other hand are off a 3-1 home win over the Oilers on Monday. Arizona is now four games behind the Avalanche with two games to play. Las Vegas plays with the added incentive of being able to end the Coyotes campaign here and now. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 10-2 in its last 12 when playing on two days rest, while Arizona is just 2-7 in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay it with confidence.

Vegas Golden Knights

10* play

The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.

Cleveland Cavaliers

10* play

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Championship Game of the NIT. The Bison come in off an impressive 71-64 win over high-flying Wichita State, while The Longhorns smashed No. 1 seed TCU 58-44. These two schools got to this point behind some extremely aggressive defensive play and I don’t expect anything to change here. Note that Lipscomb held the Shockers to just 35 percent shooting, while Texas held TCU to only 28 percent from the floor. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Lipscomb has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of ten already this season after three or more SU wins, while Texas has seen the total dip “under” in 16 of 24 as a favorite this year. This number is high, play the “under.”

Texas/Lipscomb UNDER

10* play

The set-up: I’m laying the price for the extra run-and-a-half. This is the opener of a four-game series. Cleveland is hitting just .160 collectively right now and it’s struck out 58 times. In a game which I believe will be decided late or even in extra frames, I like the run-line tonight. 

The pitchers: The Jays go with Aaron Sanchez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who struck out six and five scoreless innings, giving up just three and three walks in a victory over Detroit on Saturday. After struggling the last two years with injury, Sanchez worked through a good Spring and it would appear as if he’s ready to handle a full work load this season.

The Indians counter with Trevor Bauer (0-0, 1.29) who gave up one run and one walk over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Saturday, striking out nine and unfortunate to earn a no-decision for his effort (a victim of poor run support.) 

The pick: The Jays come in off the 5-3 home win over Baltimore. Look for them to carry that momentum over. 

Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

9* play

The set-up: Two teams not known for their offensive fire-power go head to head on Thursday afternoon. A couple of confirmed “gas cans” also square off on the mound though. I believe that Jake Junis and Spencer Turnbull get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: The Royals’ Junis (1-0, 4.76 ERA) earned a win despite not being at his best vs. the White Sox on Saturday, allowing three runs off six hits over five innings of work. Junis is in his third year and he finished 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA last season.

The Tigers’ Turnbull (0-1, 5.40) gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Saturday. Last year he was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA for the Tigers, including 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go over in four of five vs. the division already this season, while Detroit has seen the total fly over in 16 of its last 25 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Royals/Tigers OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night.

10* play

The set-up: These teams are going through the motions today as they each play out their respective seasons. While Ottawa is .500 at home, it’s only 10-27-2 on the road. New York is in rebuilding mode as well and it’s missing the playoffs for a second straight year. So far these teams have split a pair of games, so the only thing up for grabs would be the winner of the season series. Ottawa prevailed 3-0 in the most recent and I believe we’re going to see an identical final combined score here as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Rangers have seen the total go “under” in seven of their last nine home games in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they were shut out in. No fireworks here, as everything points to the under as the correct call.

Rangers/Senators UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Baltimore won two of three in New York to open the season and it’s so far taken the first two games of this series. The Jays play with desperation here and I also think they have the advantage on the mound. When you add it all up, it makes this a price which I have no issues at all in laying. 

The pitchers: Baltimore turns to Nate Karns (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has worked as a starter for most of his five years in the big leagues, but who was originally slated to start out of the bullpen this season. Karns is in the rotation out of necessity. He looked decent vs. the Yanks on opening day, allowing one hit and no run on 33 pitches. 

The Jays counter with Matt Shoemaker (1-0, 0.00) who was impressive in his first start, going seven scoreless for a win over the Tigers. In four career starts vs. the Orioles he’s 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA. 

The pick: While the Jays have yet to impress at the plate in this series, I think Shoemaker will easily out duel his still untested counterpart. Lay the price.

Toronto Blue Jays

10* play

The set-up: Two of the best in the West go head-to-head on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that points are going to be plentiful. Denver will be playing with a sense of desperation here as it’s lost three of its last five and it now sits a game behind the Warriors for top spot in the Conference. Overall the Nuggets average 110.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. The Warriors average 117.7 PPG and they concede 111.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver has seen the total go “over” the number in in five of seven this season when playing with double revenge after two straight losses vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total go “over” in five of seven this season off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.”

Warriors/Nuggets OVER

10* play

The set-up: After getting swept in a two-game series in Japan by the Mariners to open the 2019 campaign, the A’s are now 4-3 overall after yesterday’s series opening victory over the Red Sox. Boston went 1-3 in its series opener in Seattle and it’ll be playing with desperation as it looks to avoid another setback. With its ace on the mound, I look for Boston to get the job done here.

The pitchers: Chris Sale (0-1), gave up seven runs off six hits over three frames in a loss to Seattle on Thursday, striking out four and walking two. No need to hit the panic button this early yet obviously if your Sale fan.

The home side sends Mike Fiers (1-1) to the hill, who gave up four runs to Seattle in his first start, before recovering to give up one hit and no runs over six innings with two K’s in a victory over the Angels in his second.

The pick: I think this is a fantastic price on Sale and the desperate Red Sox. Lay the price without a worry!

Boston Red Sox

9* play

The set-up: It’s the semi finals of the NIT and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Texas advanced by beating South Dakota State, Xavier and Colorado, while TCU got the better of Houston State, Nebraska and Creighton. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are of course very familiar with each other. Note that TCU won both meetings in Big 12 action this year. Both games were low-scoring battles, with TCU winning the first meeting 65-61, followed by a 69-56 score in the second. Everything points to another low-scoring affair here in my opinion. Texas comes in off a stellar defensive performance over Colorado, winning 68-55 and holding the Buffs to just 32.7 percent shooting. TCU crushed Creighton 71-58, holding it to 39.2 percent from the floor. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four neutral court games it’s played in already this year, while TCU has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 following a home victory. This number is high, play the “under.”

Texas/TCU UNDER

10* play

The set-up: The Flyers come off a 3-0 home loss to the Rangers on Sunday, while Dallas fell 3-2 in a shootout in Vancouver on Saturday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Stars after they fell 2-1 in Philadelphia in mid January. With the loss to the Rangers, the Flyers are now officially eliminated from playoff contention and as such, I expect them to simply go through the motions today. Dallas had a three-game road win streak going before the setback in Vancouver. The Stars are three points behind the Blues for the final guaranteed spot in the division, meaning that this is clearly a crucial “must win” game for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Philadelphia is 1-4 in its last five vs. a team with a winning record, while Dallas is 8-3 in its last 11 after scoring two goals or less in its previous game. Playoff implications. Revenge factor. Lay the price with confidence.

Dallas Stars

7* play

The set-up: Two competent starters square off here, but I’m expecting a much more competitive game today after the Rays’ 7-1 victory on Monday. That was Tampa’s fourth straight win. 

The pitchers: The home side turns to Blake Snell (0-1, 7.50 ERA), who was rocked for six hits, including three homers over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Astros in his 2019 opener. 

Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (1-0, 1.29), who looked good in his first start after putting together a very solid 2018 as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five on the road, while Tampa’s seen the total go over in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low, play the “over.”

Rockies/Rays OVER

10* play

The set-up: Seattle swept the A’s in a two game mini series in Japan to open the 2019 season and then it just went 3-1 vs. the Red Sox. Seattle is getting timely pitching, along with a line-up which is hitting the ball like it’s the middle of the season. Overall I think we’re getting great value on the home side here. 

The pitchers: LA turns to Chris Stratton, who comes over in the off-season from San Francisco. Stratton was 10-10 with a 5.09 ERA for the Giants in 2018.

Seattle veteran Felix Hernandez has clearly seen better days. He’s coming off a shaky spring and he’s been named the No. 5 starter. It’s a make or break campaign for The King and while the odds are against him, it’s not unheard of for senior pitchers to make adjustments and come back with stellar performances. Also note that he’s 16-18 with a 3.58 ERA in 53 starts vs. LA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is still just 38-47 (-8.7 units) on the road where the money line is between +125 to -125, while Seattle is 46-32 (+5.5 units) in its last 78 at home with a money line between -100 to -150. Great price on the home side here.

Seattle Mariners

9* play

The set-up: Despite wrapping up the division title and the top spot in the Western Conference with a win at San Jose last night, I think the Flames keep the foot on the gas at this point as they look to continue the surge towards the post-season. Calgary has won eight off 11 and held its opponents to three or fewer goals for its ninth straight time last night. David Rittich is expected in net for Calgary and he won his only career start vs. LA, a 1-0 shutout on November 10th. The Kings fate is sealed. They’re going to finish last in the Pacific despite how many games they win to close the year. They can’t even use the motivation to play spoiler here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 5-17 in its last 22 as an underdog, while Calgary is 11-5 in its last 16 as a road favorite and 9-3 in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a sub. 500 home record. I like Calgary to stay focused here and come in as business as usual.

Calgary Flames

10* play

The set-up: Boston has struggled with consistency to open the year, but with what I feel to be the superior starter on the mound tonight, I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox to get the job done in this favorable matchup (Boston won’t be lacking for motivation after losing three of four in Seattle, despite scoring 24 runs.) 

The pitchers: The Red Sox go with David Price, who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA in the regular season in 2018. Note that he’s 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in ten career starts vs. Oakland.

The home side counters with Aaron Brooks, who made the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mainly because of an injury to starter Sean Manaea to open the year. Note that Brooks threw just three times in the big leagues last year and he hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitching since 2015. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is still 104-71 (+26.9 units) the last two years on the road, while Oakland is just 15-25 (-9.9 units) in its last 40 when playing with a day off. I’m banking on Price getting the better of his counterpart and for the Red Sox’ offense to continue to shine. Great price on Price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Hornets’ playoff hopes are fading fast after back-to-back losses, including to the Warriors just last night. I think that Kemba Walker and company come in predictably “gassed” here in the second game of the back-to-back. Utah will look to keep its sharp play vs. “lesser” competition going strong, as it comes in having won four straight over the Wizards, Lakers, Suns and Bulls. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring affair.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in six of eight already this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, while Utah has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 when playing with two days rest. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

Hornets/Jazz UNDER

10* play

The set-up: The Indians have stumbled out of the gate to open 2019, thanks in part to a poor offense for the most part. The Tribe head home for their first game at Progressive Field in 2019 and I think it’ll be just what the doctor ordered to get things turned around at the plate for the home side. The White Sox lost 14 of 19 in this season series last year, so they won’t be lacking for motivation either. The pitchers are decent, but the overall situation lends itself to a higher-scoring slug-fest in my opinion. 

The pitchers: The White Sox turn to Ivan Nova, who was 11-14 with a 4.14 ERA in 2017 and 9-9 with a 4.19 ERA last year for the Pirates. Nova comes in off a decent spring, but I think he’ll have his hands full with this under-achieving and focused Indians’ line-up.

Cleveland goes with Mike Clevinger, who was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 2017 and 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 2018. Clevinger had a strong spring as well. 

The pick: As stated off the top, these starters are both solid, however as I also noted, the situation points to a higher-scoring affair in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go over the number in 30 of its last 50 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland has seen the total go over in 29 of its last 49 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

Indians/White Sox OVER

The set-up: The Red Wings have been playing inspired hockey of late, coming in having won four straight. Detroit won’t be in the playoffs though and I think it’ll have a letdown here vs. this focused Bruins side. Boston has been alternating wins and losses over its last four, but after falling to Florida on Saturday, I think the Bruins put the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Detroit has taken two of three in the season series, so Boston won’t be taking anything for granted either. 

The pick: Boston continues to push for playoff positioning and I think it comes in focused after falling to Florida last time out. Take it for what you will as well, but the Red Wings are just 17-36 in their last 53 games that are the third of three games in four days situation, while the Bruins are 8-3 in their last 11 when playing on one days rest. I’m banking on a blowout.

Boston Bruins

10* play

The set-up: Off a satisfying 5-2 home win over the Flyers, I think the Hurricanes stumble in this difficult road venue. The Penguins on the other hand will be eager to get back on track after a 3-1 home loss to Nashville. Carolina comes in on no rest and while it’s been sharp in those situations this season, I think it finally catches up to it here. Overall the Hurricanes average 2.84 goals and allow 2.84 as well when on the road this season. Pittsburgh hasn’t clinched a playoff spot either, but it’ll close to doing so with a win today. Overall the Penguins average 3.29 goals and concede 3.13 at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Carolina is still just 10-14 (-9.1 units) vs. division opponents this year, while Pittsburgh is 41-22 (+10.9 units) in its last 63 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. Lay it.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10* play