The set-up: The Eagles have looked terrible so far this year and I think there’s a chance they could lose this one outright as well. Detroit is 1-0-1 after beating LA 13-10 at home last week. Detroit should be 2-0 after it let a late lead slip away in Week 1, as the Lions are looking much better on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. 

The pick: Detroit kept Philip Rivers out of the end zone last week, so Carson Wentz and this struggling Eagles’ offense will not have an easy time today. Last week Wentz was 25 of 43 for 231 yards, a TD and two INT’s. The Eagles’ run game was non-existent as well, with Jordan Howard picking up 18 yards on eight carries. Also note that Philadelphia suffered major injuries to key players last week (DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and DT Tim Jernigan all listed as day to day.) I think the Lions can smell the blood in the water. Grab the points.

8* play on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: Two undefeated teams collide on Sunday afternoon and only one will leave with the victory. Unless there’s a tie, which isn’t out of the question in my opinion. Regardless, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. KC has won two games on the road, but that was vs. Jacksonville and Oakland. Baltimore has beaten Miami and Arizona. When these teams met in Week 14 last year it was KC that held on for the 27-24 win, making the “revenge scenario” a very real one for Lamar Jackson and the surging Ravens as well. 

The pick: So far Baltimore has outscored its opposition 82-27 this year. Jackson and RB Mark Ingram are going to prove to be too much for this suspect Chiefs’ defense to handle in my opinion. The Chiefs behind QB Patrick Mahomes have outscored their opposition by a 68-36 margin, but the questions on the defensive side of the ball still remain for me. Not so for Baltimore though and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I’m definitely going to grab the points in what sets up to be a very competitive battle.

8* play on the Baltimore Ravens.

The set-up: These two teams enter hungry. That’s where the similarities end though, as Cincinnati is essentially in a “must win” scenario at 0-2, while the Bills are looking to build off their improbable 2-0 start. Neither team will be lacking for motivation here and as such, I’m expecting this contest to be extremely wide open. After a tight 21-20 setback in Seattle and then a 41-17 loss to San Francisco, the pressure is clearly on Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton to step up and deliver here. 

The pick: The Bills have gotten great play on both sides of the ball as well, especially from QB Josh Allen, who led his team on four TD drives in their Week 2 victory against the Giants. From a situational stand point, I think it definitely sets up as a “shootout,” but also note that the Bengals have seen the total go over the number in six of their last seven as a road dog of seven points or less, while Buffalo has seen the total soar over in nine of its last 12 at home. This number is a litre low.

8* play on the over Bengals/Bills.

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams after each won in Week 2. Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett has five TD’s and just one INT so far this year and the run game has looked decent as well for the Colts behind Marlon Mack. The Falcons looked pretty good in their 24-20 win over the Eagles last week, as ATSL gets production across the board from several key players, including Calvin Ridley, who has 169 receiving yards already. 

The pick: I think it’s interesting to note though that the Falcons lead the league in receiving yards allowed and so far they’ve done a superb job in limiting big plays. The Colts are ranked dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game (147) and I believe their extreme one-dimensionality comes back to bite them here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards.  

The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings.

The set-up: Ball State is 1-2, most recently coming off a 41-31 loss to FAU. The Cardinals haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but Ball State is unable to stop anyone. NC State won’t be lacking for motivation here as it comes in off an upset 44-72 loss at WVU. It was a bit of a shock considering how well NC State looked against ECU (34-6 win) and Western Carolina (41-0.) The Cardinals have gotten great production from QB Drew Pitt, with 11 TD’s and just three INT’s, but now Ball State faces its stiffest defensive competition to date. 

The pick: With the backing of the home crowd and playing with a chip on their shoulder, I definitely think that from a situational stand point, the Wolf Pack are the correct call here today. But note as well that Ball State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog, while NC State is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a loss ATS. Lay the points, expect a rout.

8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on NC State.

The set-up: It’s the annual Rio Grande Rivalry and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lobos are 40-14-3 at home against NMSU in Albuquerque. But note that the Aggies have won two of the last three in this series. With neither side lacking for confidence or motivation, this one definitely has more the feel of a wide open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” New Mexico State is led by Tevaka Tuioti, who was 6 for 13 for 132 yards vs. Notre Dame, and who is a legitimate dual threat QB. 

The pick: These two teams hate each other and I believe that extra factor is going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout. Note as well though that New Mexico State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight after a loss by 17 points or more, while New Mexico has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a shade low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER New Mexico State/New Mexico.

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset. I just think that Ohio State will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it plays out the final game of the non-conference schedule. Miami Ohio lost to Iowa 38-14, beat Tennessee Tech 48-17 and then fell to Cincinnati 35-13. Who could fault the Buckeyes for looking past their lowly opponent after starting the year 3-0, with a 45-21 win over FAU, a 42-0 victory over Cincinnati and a 51-10 effort over Indiana last week. 

The pick: Justin Fields clearly has the advantage over Miami’s Brett Gabbert, but as mentioned, this is a situational play more than anything else. The RedHawks have plenty to work on in this game which they know they’re going to lose, while Ohio State can simply “go through the motions” and still get the job done before a difficult upcoming Big Ten schedule. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio 

The set-up: Temple comes in content in my opinion after its upset victory over Maryland and a 2-0 start to the year. Temple’ QB Anthony Russo has 686 yards, seven TD’s and two INT’s. Overall the Owl are averaging 561 yards of offense and 38 PPG this year. The Bulls though are a tough defense and I think the unit keeps the team in this game late. Buffalo is looking to bounce back after a 35-17 loss to Liberty last time out. Bulls’ QB Matt Myers has 481 yards, five TD’s and an INT, while Kevin Marks has 247 yards rushing. Overall Buffalo averages 385.3 yards and 22.7 PPG. 

The pick: Both of Temple’s wins have come at home and I have a hard time laying so many points on its first true road game of the season (despite how good its looked to his point). Conversely, both of Buffalo’s losses have come on the road. I’m banking on a competitive battle and will therefore be grabbing the ample points in this one.

8* PLAYBOOK on Buffalo

The set-up: While likely not too high-scoring, I still think that MSU’s offense will have more than enough in the tank to distance itself from its lowly counterpart today. And note that clearly the Spartans won’t be taking anything for granted here as the Wildcats have taken three straight in the series and four of the last five dating to 2012. Michigan State is also out to atone for its inexplicable setback at home to Arizona State. MSU’ QB Brian Lewerke looked out of sorts last week, but he and RB Elijah Collins have dominated this series in the past and I expect that trend to continues here. Collins in particular already has 281 yards rushing and he had a TD last week as well. 

The pick: Northwestern has been terrible against the run, allowing 175.33 yards per game. Wildcats’ No. 1 QB TJ Green went down with injury in Week 1 and ever since then the Northwestern offense has been stuck in neutral with Hunter Johnson running the show (Wildcats are the only team in the Big Ten average ring fewer than five yards per play.) I expect a lot from the Michigan State defense and I expect nothing from the Wildcats offense. Look for Lewerke to take advantage and lay the points.

8* play on Michigan State.

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked very impressive. The Golden Bears had a 20-0 lead over UNT, only to hold on for the 23-17 victory, while Ole Miss posted an uninspiring 40-29 victory over FCS Southeastern Louisiana. Cal posted a 129 yards of offense in the first quarter last week, but then only 150 yards over the final three combined. Cal QB Chase Garbers was just nine of 22 and he was running for his life most of the time. 

The pick: Ole Miss has been aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, posting 27 tackles for a loss through three games, which is most in the SEC. Ole Miss has talent on the offensive side of the ball as well and scheduling is in its favor, as a 9 AM PST contest for a West Coast team which has a 1,700 mile trip before hand is never an easy task. Also note that the Bears finishing last week’s game without LB’s Chinedu Udeogu, Cameron Goode and Tevin Paul because of injury. The Grove is going to be electric in what is essentially a “must win” for the home side.

8* play on Ole Miss.

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But after jumping out to an early insurmountable lead, I think the Crimson Tide takes the foot off the gas in the second half and I look for the lowly Southern Miss Golden Eagles to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Last week Alabama destroyed USC 47-23, with QB Tua Tagovailoa going for a career-high 444 passing yards. Southern Miss won’t be lacking for motivation here as it enters off a 47-42 road win over Troy. 

The pick: Golden Eagles’ QB Jack Abraham had 463 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s win. Abraham leads the Conference USA in passing and he’ll be given the green light early and often this afternoon. I believe he’s a difference maker. Additionally note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference road games as an underdog of 35 points or more. Grab the points.

8* play on the Southern Miss

The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the home side counters with Mike Fiers. 

The pitchers: Minor (13-9, 3.33 ERA) has pitched four times in Oakland in his career and he’s gone 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA. 

Fiers (14-4, 4.09) is 8-1 in Oakland this year, and 12-3 at the Coliseum for his career. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year when on the road and the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly, 17 of 21 games that it’s played on a “Friday” this year (does that matter tonight? Well..it doesn’t hurt!) This number is indeed a bit high in my opinion, play the under.

10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rangers/As. 

The set-up: USC is coming off a surprising Week 3 loss at BYU and I look for it to risk life and limb today as it tries to score the outright upset. Utah owns one of the best defenses in the country, but it does struggle against “air raid” offenses like Washington State and these very USC Trojans. USC held BYU to just 3.3 YPC, so containing mobile Utah QB Tyler Huntley is definitely possible. 

The pick: USC QB Kedon Slovis looked great in Week 2 with 377 yards and three TD’s, but last week he had three INT’s. Utah has struggled in this arena in the past and I believe the circumstances are working against it here as well. USC has the offensive firepower to easily hang with the Utes and I think that’ll be more than enough to get the job done here, with a possible outright in the cards as well. That said, grab the points.

10* on USC

The set-up: Both teams come in undefeated. Boise State is the better team and it has the advantage, but the Falcons won’t be going down without a fight today. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The only way to beat these Boise State Broncos is by keeping them off the field! And that’s exactly what Air Force is designed to do as it looks to control the tempo of a contest with its strong run game, behind Tavin Birdow and Kadin Remsberg (note that the Falcons are second in the country in rushing with 353.5 YPG on the ground.) 

The pick: Boise State will be relentless in its attack as well with QB Hank Bachmeier, but I believe the Falcons’ improved defensive play, combined with their aggressive “run first” offensive attack will indeed keep this contest competitive until the final moments. Additionally note that AF is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a dog, while Boise State is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. I’m grabbing the points.

8* on Air Force.

The set-up: FIU was projected by many to contend for the Conference USA East Division title, but it’s dropped its first two games, which includes an upset setback to WKU at home to start C-USA play. The Golden Panthers earned their first win last week though vs. FCS New Hampshire last week (30-17), so they do come in with something to build off. Louisiana Tech has looked better than FIU, but not by much. It opened with a 45-14 loss at Texas, and then followed it up with a 20-14 win over FCS Grambling. It then beat Bowling Green 35-7 last week. FIU starting QB James Morgan is likely out for this one with an ankle injury, but back up Kaylan Wiggins looked impressive last week with 187 rushing yards on 14 carries, while also going 12 of 18 passing for 127 yards in the win. The Golden Panthers also have three quality backs in D’Vonte Prie, Napoleon Maxwell and Anthony Jones. 

The pick: The Bulldogs have a dynamic QB in J’Mar Smith, but FIU has a talented defense as well with LB Sage Lewis leading the way with 22 total tackles this year, while also posting an INT last week. Yes FIU has many question marks, but it has the talent to keep this one close down the stretch in my opinion. Grab the ample points.

8* play on FIU

The set-up: For a number of different reasons I think that Jacob deGrom and the visitors are worth the price of admission vs. Luis Castillo and the Reds. 

The pitchers: deGrom (9-8, 2.61 ERA) enters on top form, most recently going seven scoreless in a 3-0 win over the Dodgers on Saturday. Over his past 21 starts he’s posted a minuscule 2.09 ERA. 

Castillo (15-6, 3.22) has “righted” the ship after a shaky patch, most recently earning a victory over the D-Backs. 

The pick: New York still has a slim shot at a wild card berth, but every game from here on out is essentially a “must win.” One game at a time though. Note that deGrom is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA in five career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo has had success vs. New York in the past, but I believe he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Mets are a sharp 16-9 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while the Reds are just 11-15 as a home underdog this season.) Lay the price.

10* BLOWOUT SUPER DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.

The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags.

The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish.

The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Jordan Lyles. The Padres broke a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night, but the Brewers are still surging towards a wild card spot. Note that the loss was just the second in the Brewers last 13 games overall. 

The pitchers: Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was shelled for eight runs over 3 2/3’s innings in a 10-8 loss to the Rockies on Friday. 

Lyles (11-8, 4.25) is 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Friars.

The pick: After yesterday’s “duel,” the conditions now definitely seem right for more of a “slug-fest” on Thursday afternoon. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Padres/Brewers.

The set-up: The Phillies came back and beat the Braves last night, but I like the home side to get the job done on Thursday afternoon. Both teams are equally as “hungry” for victories here. Philadelphia needs victories to stay alive in the race, and ATL is still hunting down the No. 1 spot in the Senior Circuit. But after yesterday’s setback, I think the home side responds. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Nola (12-5, 3.62 ERA) is 3-1 vs. the Braves in five starts this year with a 4.06 ERA. 

Soroka (12-4, 2.57) has a 4.82 ERA and no decisions over two games faced vs. the Phillies this year. For arguments sakes, I’m calling the starters a “wash” today.

The pick: Atlanta can win the division pennant with a win today and tomorrow and after dropping the first two of this series, I look for it to take care of the first of those two steps this afternoon. Great price on the home side here in this great situational spot wager.

10* SITUATIONAL STOMPING on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: While neither starter instils a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is too high. These teams went “under” the number last night as well and all signs point to another lower-scoring affair on Wednesday afternoon in my opinion. The offensively challenged visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Duffy (6-6, 4.55 ERA) enters throwing his best of the entire season, off back-to-back gems by allowing just two runs and six hits over 12 frames. 

Bailey (13-8, 4.76) started the season on the Royals roster, and since coming over to Oakland he’s gone 6-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 11 starts. He’s 1-0 with 4.50 ERA lifetime vs. KC. 

The pick: The A’s have a two game lead over Tampa and 2.5 game lead over Cleveland for the AL Wildcard. Expect these ex-teammates to go deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under KC/As.

The set-up: Both teams are equally “hungry” for a victory, so we can throw the “motivation” factor out the window for this one in my opinion. The difference comes between the starting pitchers and I think we’re getting great value on Max Scherzer in this case. The Cards hand the ball to Adam Wainwright. 

The pitchers: Scherzer (10-6, 2.65 ERA) is 2-5 with a 2.95 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Cardinals. 

Wainwright (12-9, 4.00) is 9-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 games vs. the Nationals. He’s been hot of late, but I believe he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: With last night’s 6-2 win to even this series, the Nats are now only 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Wildcard race. No time to take the foot off the gas here. Washington’s bullpen looked sharp yesterday and I look for it to be a difference maker today as well. Lay the price.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: It wouldn’t be that difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starting pitchers. I believe that Sonny Gray of the Reds and Yu Darvish of the Cubs are a “wash,” here, but I also think that the conditions definitely overall favor the home side. Chicago has won five straight and I look for that momentum to get carried over here. 

The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 2.80 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Mariners on Wednesday. 

Darvish (6-6, 3.97) is enjoying a bounce back campaign this season and he’s 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in seven career outings vs. the Reds.

The pick: The Reds are 30-46 on the road this year, while the Cubs are 51-24 at home. Lay the price with confidence.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Chicago Cubs.

The set-up: While neither starting pitchers instills much confidence, I still believe this number is too high. The visitors go with Marco Gonzales, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller. 

The pitchers: Gonzales (15-11, 4.30 ERA) gave up two runs over seven innings in a 5-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday.

Keller (1-4, 8.29) has clearly struggled in his rookie year, but there’s no question that he’s been much worse on the road (11.14 ERA), than at home (4.16.) 

The pick: Both teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but the numbers point otherwise in this particular interleague contest, as note that Seattle has in fact seen the total dip under in nine of 15 interleague games this season, while Pittsburgh’s seen the total go under in four of five after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high.

*10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER M’s/Pirates.

The set-up: The Browns were their own worst enemy in Week 1, as several dumb/costly penalties led to an early deficit and they were never mentally able to recover. But Cleveland hasn’t played on Monday night since 2010 and it’ll be out to correct those mistakes and take advantage of this situation (18 penalties for 182 yards.) New York looked poor in Week 1 too though, blowing a 16-0 lead to the Bills at home. But injuries played a big part in New York’s second half collapse, as CJ Moseley and Quinnen Williams both sidelined. 

The pick: And now to make matters worse for New York, QB Sam Darnold has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, meaning that backup Trevor Siemian is being thrust into the spotlight. Baker Mayfield threw three INT’s last week, but that was more out of a sense of desperation with the game already out of reach. I think the Browns defense is the biggest difference maker today. It looked bad last week, but the aforementioned penalties played a big part in that. I think the visitors feast on the Jets’ instability. Lay the points.

10* MONDAY NIGHT MASSACRE on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: I don’t normally place a top 10* ranking on a play with a line of this size, but in this case I feel that it’s absolutely justified. The visitors hand the ball to  Garrett Richards, while the home side goes with Zach Davies. 

The pitchers: Richards (0-0, 0.00 ERA) make his first big league appearance since July 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

Davies (9-7, 3.77) is 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA in five career starts vs. the Friars.

The pick: It’s the final 13 games of the season and the Brewers are “peaking” at the right time, returning home to a favorable schedule after a 6-1 road trip. And with a defeat tonight, the Padres are assured a ninth straight losing season. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Milwaukee Brewers. 

The set-up: Both teams played to higher-scoring slug-feats on Sunday, but I believe that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The visitors go with Reynaldo Lopez, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios. 

The pitchers: Lopez (9-13, 5.35 ERA) is 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA in six career starts vs. the Twins.

Berrios (12-8, 3.63) is the difference maker for me here, as he’s 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the White Sox, including 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four outings this year. 

The pick: Minnesota took two of three from the Indians and with a sweep of the Sox on its final home stand, it can wrap up the division title. I have a hard time seeing Chicago putting many runs on the board today and as a result, look for this total to stay well under the number.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under White Sox/Twins.

The set-up: Philadelphia came from behind to knock off the Redskins 33-27 last weekend, I but I think it’ll struggle in this difficult road venue and against this desperate Falcons side looking to bounce back off a poor 28-12 loss to the Vikes in Week 1. Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense looked terrible for most of the game, but they finally found a bit of a rythym near the end of the game and I believe the unit will carry that momentum over here. In a division packed with quality teams, this has for all intents and purposes become a “must win” for ATL this weekend. 

The pick: The Eagles allowed a ghastly 380 yards to Washington’ QB Case Keenum last week and sacked him only once, so if not now for Ryan and the Falcons…when?! 

Atlanta Falcons 7* play

The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. 

The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders.

The set-up: I had a play on the Braves as my “GOY” on Thursday and while that came up short, I’ve since come back with ATL the last two days and the Braves have indeed delivered the goods. But now I think the value has swung the other way to the desperate home side as it looks to break the slide and avoid the sweep. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried, while the home side counter with Anibal Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Fried (16-5, 4.02 ERA) is 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Nats. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Fried, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. 

Sanchez (8-8, 4.04) is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts vs. his former team.

The pick: With yesterday’s win the Braves have already punched their ticket to the post-season. Clearly they have bigger aspirations in mind, but there’s also no question that after accomplishing that feat, that this now sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for Atlanta. I look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done. 

10* ABSOLUTE ANNIHILATION on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in this AL contest on Sunday afternoon and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors go with Randy Dobnak, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber.

The pitchers: Dobnak (0-1, 2.25 ERA) makes a spot start here for Jose Berrios. He’s done decently already vs. the Indians on two occasions this year, but that was then and this is now. I think the rookie takes a predictable step back today in this pressure filled afternoon contest. 

Bieber (14-7, 3.17) is 3-0 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Twins. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Bieber, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The pick: Cleveland lost both games of yesterday’s double-header and its bid for a fourth consecutive AL Central title is in jeopardy. The Twins on the other hand are inching closer to their first division title since 2010. In my opinion, this one sets up as a high-scoring “slug-fest” on Sunday afternoon.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the over Twins/Tribe.

The set-up: It’s difficult to win and cover on the road, but the Bills did just that at MetLife Stadium last weekend, staging a come from behind win over the Jets. To do it on back-to-back weeks is extremely difficult and only the better teams usually accomplish that. Clearly the Bills aren’t a great team. It’s almost “do or die” now for Eli Manning and com pay after their loss in Week 1. Expect to see a heavy dose of Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley as well, as he looks to ease the pressure off New York’s veteran pivot. 

The pick: The numbers are on our side as well, as note that Buffalo is a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog and only 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Conversely, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a road loss vs. a division rival and 3-1 ATS in their last four off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY COACH’S CORNER the New York Giants.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a shade low. The visitors go with Robert Dugger, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Dugger (0-2, 4.29 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, having allowed 11 walks in 21 frames of work thus far. 

Bumgarner (9-8, 3.77) most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Miami earlier in the year. 

The pick: The Giants won 1-0 last night, but I expect much more of a “slug-fest” on Saturday (note as well that the numbers back us up, as Miami has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 35 vs. southpaws this season already, while SF has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six after shutting out it opponent in its last game. This number is low.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on on the over Marlins/Giants.

The set-up: TCU comes out of its bye week and I look for it to match pace with the home side. The Horned Frogs won’t be taking anything for granted after having lost three of their last four on the road dating to last year. TCU is 1-0 after beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. So far the Horned Frogs have averaged 200 yards per game and allowed just seven points. But clearly TCU is in for a much stiffer test this evening. 

The pick: Purdue has won four of its last five home games. The Boilermakers have gotten 932 yards and nine TD’s from QB Elijah Sindelar and I look for the senior QB to open up the playbook tonight as well. He’ll have to, as note that Purdue is allowing 29 points and 447.5 YPG on the defensive side of things. TCU comes in rested and focused and knows it can’t rest on its heels if it has any hopes at an upset. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely feel this number is a little low.

10* totals play on OVER TCU/Purdue.

The set-up: Arizona State upset MSU last year and while I’m not calling for a repeat on Saturday afternoon, I do definitely think that the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ASU admittedly faces a better team this year, but Herm Edwards’ side won’t be lacking for motivation or confidence. ASU QB Jayden Daniels had a 300 yard passing game last weekend. MSU is better against the run than the pass, so that plays into Daniels favor on Saturday. 

The pick: The Spartans rely heavily on their run game with Elijah Collins leading the charge, but QB Brian Lewerke still has a few question marks surrounding him in my opinion after a poor 2018 showing. With conference play starting next week, this also sets up as a natural “look ahead” spot for MSU. No outright, but closer than expected.

10* play on Arizona State.

The set-up: I had a play on Atlanta in its upset win over Max Scherzer and the Nationals last night and I look for it to get the job done here as well as the Braves continue to try and catch the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The Nationals are still looking to lock down a wild card spot, but this is another mismatch in my opinion. The visitors go with Mike Foltynewicz, while the home side counters with Autin Voth.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz (6-5, 5.00 ERA) makes his eighth start since re-joining the team after a stint in the minors because of poor play. note that since he’s returned he’s gone 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA, including going 2-0 and allowing only one run over 12 innings in September. 

Voth (1-1, 4.00) has allowed four runs off seven hits over ten innings opposed vs. the Braves this year. 

The pick: With last night’s win the Braves magic number is now six games. No time to take the foot off the gas with the “promised land” so close. Great value on the surging visitors here.

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: WKU is just 1-1 this year, but its been competitive in each contest. In Week 1 the Hilltoppers fell to Central Arkansas by a score of 35-28, before then rebounding with a solid 20-14 victory over FIU last weekend. Louisville has a 1-1 mark as well, falling 35-17 to Notre Dame, before then waxing EKU 42-0 last weekend. 

The pick: The trends DO NOT favor the favorite in this one though, as note that the Cardinals are a terrible 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site affairs. WKU on the other hand is 27-17 ATS the last two years after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. Western Kentucky QB Steven Duncan matches Louisville QB Jawon Pass in my opinion and that means that I’m grabbing up the points.

8* play on WKU.

The set-up: NC State has outscored its first two opponents 75-6, including last week’s opponent Western Carolina 41-0. WVU won’t be lacking for motivation today though. The Mountaineers are 1-1, but they’ve looked terrible in both games. WVU narrowly defeated James Madison in Week 1, before then getting destroyed 38-7 by Missouri last weekend. WVU heads into Big 12 play next weekend, making this contest more crucial than ever. NC State Matt McKay hasn’t been challenged yet this season, but I believe that changes this afternoon. 

The pick: NC State had plenty of question marks heading into the season and while its first year QB and RB have looked solid to this point, clearly hitting the road to take on this motivated Power 5 opponent is an entirely different “animal.” In what I expect to be a very competitive battle, I’m grabbing the points.

8* play on West Virginia.

The set-up: Last weekend the Terps annihilated then No. 21 Syracuse 63-20 as an underdog and I believe it’s in line for a classic “letdown” here. Temple destroyed FCS Bucknell 56-12 in its opener, and then enjoyed last weekend off as its bye. Fresh and focused, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances today, as note that in last year’s matchup at College Park, the Owls emerged with a 35-14 victory. 

The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo started on the road vs. the Terps last year and was 15 of 25 for 228 yards, one TD and an INT. Maryland has plenty of offensive talent, especially at the QB position with Josh Jackson, but the overall conditions favor the hungry and rested home side in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Temple.

The set-up: This is the opener of a two game series between the teams, with the second one heading back East next weekend. Because of that, I believe each opens up the playbook on the West Coast and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Ottawa won’t be lacking for motivation that’s for sure after falling 46-17 to last place Toronto. Ottawa is just 3-8 overall and over its last three games it’s been outscored 107-42. One bright spot last week for the Redblacks was the play of QB Jon Jennings, who had 327 yards vs. the Argos. BC is just 1-10 and on a current seven-game losing streak. There’s no bigger disappointment in the entire league than these two teams.

The pick: Over the last three years, the over is 3-1-1 between the clubs. The players on both sides are now playing for a job for next season and because of that, I look for this total to fly over the posted number. 

10* CFL TOTAL OF MONTH on over Ottawa/BC.

The set-up: It’s the Washington State Cougars vs. the Houston Cougars and if you like offense, then this game is for you! WSU is ranked No. 20 after starting 2-0 and averaging 58.8 PPG. Houston simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in my opinion. Note that WSU QB Anthony Gordon already has 884 yards and nine TD’s this season. Houston is 1-1, losing to Oklahoma in its opener, before beating Prairie View 37-17. 

The pick: Nine different players caught a pass for WSU last week. Keep your eyes on WSU RB Max Borghi as well, who is averaging 95 all purpose yards per game. D’Eriq King is a big time talent for the Cougars, but he lacks the talent around him to keep up down the stretch. Look for Gordon to keep up the blistering pace with his biggest game of the season. 

10* play on Washington State.

The set-up:

The pitchers:

The pick: 

10* UPPER-DECK DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: UNC comes in quietly confident after starting the year 2-0 and getting past Coastal rival Miami last week. Wake is 2-0 as well after wins over Utah State and Rice. UNC has an extremely dynamic QB in Sam Howell and a competent back in Javonte Williams, who has 178 yards over two games. 

The pick: The Demon Deacons have been terrible vs. the past as well, currently ranked 123rd nationally. Also note that Wake’s star RB Cade Carney is once again listed as questionable for this game after missing last week as well. Jamie Newman has been great at QB as well for Wake, but his team’s weakness against the pass on the defensive side is the difference maker in my opinion. With FCS Elon up next, I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead” as well. Grab the points.

8* play on UNC.

The set-up: I’m making a play on both the side and the total in this game. If you’ve bought this package, then you know that I’m on the Tar Heels with the points here. After starting the year 2-0, I think that Wake is going to take a step back here. The Demon Deacons have a “cream puff” next weekend vs. Elon, before a gruelling upcoming schedule vs. Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and NC State. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!”

The pick: UNC has been better than advertised at 2-0 and I expect the visitors to once again lean heavily on RB Javonte Williams, who so far has 178 yards over two games. Additionally note that UNC has seen the total go under in its last five games after a win by six points or less in two straight games. This number is a shade high.

10* play on the under UNC/Wake.

The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs.

The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under.

The set-up: I had a play on the Braves last night and I think they offer great value to get the job done again here as the visiting side looks to put some final nails into the Phillies’ coffin as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. ATL has to be feeling confident as well in sending Julio Teheran to the hill, while the home side counters with Drew Smyly. 

The pitchers: Teheran (10-8, 3.31 ERA) most recently went six frames and gave up three hits, one run and struck out eight in a 5-4 win over Washington. In his career he’s 9-7 with a 3.71 ERA vs. Philadelphia. 

Smyly (4-6, 6.20) is coming off a decent outing, but note that he’s consistently been at his worst in all “home” situations this year, going just 1-4 with a ballooned 7.44 ERA.

The pick: ATL owns a 9.5 games lead over Washington, but it’s still three games behind the Dodgers for the top mark in the NL. This game means just as much for Atlanta: "This is what you sign up for," Atlanta catcher Brian McCann said. "This is what you love. You get into September baseball and you're close to the finish line. We've done a great job from day one." The Phillies are desperate, but I think Teheran is the difference maker here. I’m laying the short price and expecting a decisive decision. 

10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: Reynaldo Lopez gets the call for the home side and he’ll be opposed by Glen Sparkman. The White Sox rallied for a win over the Royals last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. 

The pitchers: Sparkman (3-11, 5.97 ERA) has struggled mightily over the last two months, going 0-6 with an 8.32 ERA over his last nine trips to the hill. Overall Sparkman has given up 27 home runs this season.

Lopez (9-12, 5.17) is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA in four starts vs. the Royals this year (is 4-2 with a 4.71 ERA lifetime vs. them.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is is just 9-17 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Chicago is 9-2 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Lay the reasonable mid sized price.

8* BEATDOWN on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: Bobby Poyner has been called up from Triple-A Pawtucket to make his third appearance since rejoining the Red Sox and I believe he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart Trent Thornton.

The pitchers: Poyner (0-0, 10.50 ERA) posted a 3.77 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and a 70:27 K/W over 57.1 innings at Triple-A. 

Thornton (4-9, 5.23) gave up three runs over four innings in a loss to the Rays on Thursday. Note that he’s been at this worst North of the border as well, going just 1-6 with a 5.72 ERA in Toronto.

The pick: Boston is 26-17 as a road favorite of -125 or higher this year, while Toronto is just 15-27 as a home dog. I like Poyner to earn his first victory of the year. Lay the short price.

8* SITUATIONAL SMACK DOWN on Boston Red Sox.

The set-up: I think this is ultimately a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. Atlanta took the first game of this series, but the Phillies responded with a 6-5 victory in last night’ contest. I look for ATL to respond on Wednesday. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Keuchel (7-5, 3.47 ERA) has allowed only three runs over his last five starts, going 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA in that span.

Eflin (8-11, 4.31) is 0-2 with a 19.06 ERA vs. Atlanta this year, allowing 12 earned runs over 5 2/3’s innings opposed. Most recently Eflin allowed six hits and two runs over five innings in a 5-4 loss to the Mets. 

The pick: Eflin hasn’t fared well vs. the Braves throughout his career, going just 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA. Despite yesterday’s loss Atlanta has won ten of its last 12 and I expect it to get back on track here in this important game. Lay the short price.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The A’s got destroyed last night and I believe they’re in for another hurting here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark, while the home side counters with Wade Miley. 

The pitchers: Roark (9-8, 3.86 ERA) comes in off six scoreless innings vs. the Angels. Difficult to say anything negative about the veteran, I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Miley (13-4, 3.35) is coming off a poor outing, but overall he’s been solid this year. He’ll look to bounce back against the A’s, whom he is 5-2 with a 1.71 ERA in eight career starts against. 

The pick: With last night’s blowout win, the Astros improved to 28-2 this year vs. AL West rivals. Over the last two games Houston has 39 hits and 36 runs. 

8* play on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Nationals hand the ball to the volatile Anibal Sanchez, while the home side counters with ace Jose Berrios. 

The pitchers: Sanchez (8-7, 4.11 ERA) has been hit or miss this year. In his last start he was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over five innings in an 8-4 loss to the Mets.

Berrios (11-8, 3.78) has stumbled in the send half, most recently allowing six runs to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Berrios though will look to finally bounce back with a strong effort at home, where he still sports a respectable 3.12 ERA.

The pick: The Twins have a 5.5 game lead over the Tribe with 19 games remaining, but clearly they can’t lose focus at this point. Especially against this dangerous opponent. The Nats avoided a four game sweep by the Braves with a 9-4 win on Sunday, but I believe they stumble in this difficult road venue. 

8* play on the Twins.

The set-up: The Braves have a big opportunity to put the Phillies out of contention this weekend and I believe they build off last night’s victory. This is a bigger mismatch on the mound in my opinion than what this spread would suggest. The visitors go with Max Fried, while the home side counters with Jason Vargas.

The pitchers: Fried (16-4, 3.86 ERA) enters off a gem, going seven scoreless and allowing only one hit vs. the Nationals. Fried has posted at least eight K’s in four of his past six starts and owns a 2.70 ERA in that span. 

Vargas (6-7, 4.27) is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in seven career games vs. the Braves. 

The pick: The Phillies’ offense was stymied in last night’s loss, managing just five hits. Expect that line-up to have even more difficulties vs. the red hot Fried. Lay the price.

8* play on Braves

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Broncos. Oakland lost its top receiver in Antonio Brown over the weekend in a heated public dispute and I believe it struggles with its focus on Monday night. Denver on the other hand had a new head coach in Vic Fangio, as well as a new QB in veteran Joe Flacco. Combined with the Bronco’s stellar defensive unit, led by Von Miller, I think that the visitors will find a way to get the job done in Week 1. Remember that next year the Raiders leave to Las Vegas anyways, which will be Jon Gruden’s third year into his five year contract. 

The pick: But as mentioned off the top, this really comes down to the recent AB distraction. For months the Raiders have been preparing to have they dynamic receiver in their line-up and now that he’s done, I believe the one week transition period simply is not enough time. Look for Denver’s methodical approach to be the difference here vs. the short-handed home side. 

Denver Broncos 10* money-line

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular starting matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, while the home side counters with veteran Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Williams (7-6, 5.16 ERA) has been much better of late and he’s had success vs. the Giants throughout his career, but I think that he’s simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Bumgarner (9-8, 3.81) owns a sub-par 3-5 record in eight regular season starts vs. the Pirates, despite owning a sharp 3.22 EA. 

The pick: This is a “must sweep” home stand for San Francisco if it has any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt. With their ace on the mound, I look for the Giants to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

10* COACHS CORNER on the San Fran Giants.

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and  hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under.

Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Indianapolis has a lot of talent, but the Colts will clearly be looking for an identity moving forward after QB Andrew Luck shockingly announced his retirement from football just a couple of weeks ago. Jacoby Brissett is a capable QB, but the mental blow that Luck’s departure will have on this organization will clearly take some time to get over. 

The pick: Yes the Chargers are without RB Melvin Gordon, but I’ve always been of the thought that RB’s are replaceable in the NFL. The experience that Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers brings to the table is the difference maker here. Brissett only threw 15 passes in the preseason and he sat out the third and fourth games. Rest leads to rust for Brissett and the rudder-less Colts. Lay the money-line on the home side here.

LA Chargers Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: The Rams finally get a chance to take out their frustrations on someone after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Last year LA was 13-3. Carolina was 6-2 after the first eight weeks of action last season, but it then finished with a 7-9 overall record. A big difference for LA though to open the season is the health of RB Todd Gurley, who had to play through injury over the final month and a half. Receiver Cooper Kupp is back and healthy as well for LA after his season was cut short with an ACL tear. 

The pick: Panthers’ QB Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury with two games left last year and he underwent surgery for the second time in three years this offseason. Newton was used sparingly in the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. the Patriots. Newton’s health is a concern for me and it makes the hungry and healthy the Rams the correct call in this one. Lay the short points.

LA Rams 10* play

The set-up: Forget the points in this one in my opinion, as I’m going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price on the home side to win this game straight up. Both BYU and Tennessee lost in Week 1, which makes home field advantage crucial here in my opinion. The Vols enter off a humbling loss to Georgia State this past weekend and suffice it to say, I think that the home side risks life and limb to redeem itself this time around. BYU looked horrible as well in its 30-12 home loss to Utah (QB Zach Wilson threw two INT’s in the loss.) 

The pick: Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano had over 300 yards and a pair of scores in last week’s loss to the Panthers and I think he’ll be a difference maker here. The Vols catch a break facing BYU’s offense this weekend as well. Expect Tennessee to get back on track and to punch its first victory into the win column once it’s all said and done.

Tennessee Moneyline 7* play

The set-up: SDSU managed a win over FCS opponent Weber State last week, but it was anything but dominant. UCLA comes in off a poor performance vs. Cincinnati, but I think that the Bruins bounce back in friendly confines. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled last week vs. the Bearcats, but I expect him to bounce back in friendly confines. That said, UCLA’s defense was a strength in the 24-14 setback. 

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well for SDSU QB Ryan Agnew, who last week completed only 16 passes for 108 yards. The Aztecs only managed 130 yards rushing last week as well. The Aztecs have history against them as well, as they’re 0-21-1 vs. the Bruins lifetime, getting outscored 695-241 in the process. I like Chip Kelly to settle down his troops and to deliver the goods at home. Lay the points.

UCLA 10* play

The set-up: No spoilers here, as I look for Iowa to lay the hammer down from start to finish. McClane Carter had 340 passing yards and two TD’s in Rutgers beatdown win over UMass, but clearly now the Scarlet Knights face an entirely different animal in the Hawkeyes. Also note that Carter was in fact picked off three times by the Minutemen. The Scarlet Knights looked good defensively in holding UMass to 14 points, but once again, clearly they’re going to have their hands full with this top tier opponent and in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley was 21 of 30 for 252 yards and three TD’s and no picks last week. He was complimented by RB Mekhi Sargent, who also had four catches for 65 yards (overall the Hawkeyes had 213 yards rushing.) I think Rutgers takes a step back after last week’s “cream puff.” Lay the points.

Iowa 8* play

The set-up: This sets up as a classic “trap” for the Panthers. Pittsburgh lost to Virginia last weekend and now it faces a tough Ohio team at home, before heading for an in-state rivalry vs. Penn State. I believe the dangerous Bobcats are going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke had a good showing for Rhode Island last week and overall the Bobcats rushed for 278 yards last week. The Panthers looked decent defensively last week, but it averaged only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt while on offense (note that Pitt QB Kenny Pickett was just 21 of 41 for 185 yards, one TD and two INT’s. 

The pick: The Panthers are still reeling from last week’s pathetic performance and they’re also already worried and looking ahead to next week. Outright win? Possible, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Ohio Bobcats 6* play

The set-up: Neither team will be in the post-season. Both of these starting pitchers has been decent, but I believe the advantage goes to Lucas Giolito because of the home field factor. The visitors counter with Dillon Peters. 

The pitchers: Peters (3-2, 4.13 ERA) regressed in August, going 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA. 

Giolito (14-8, 3.30) is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two career starts vs. the now struggling Angels lifetime.

The pick: LA is just 3-12 in its last 15 and it comes to town with zero momentum after getting swept by the A’s earlier this week. I like Giolito and believe that he should/could in fact be a much larger favorite in this matchup considering Peters recent form. Lay the price.

10* SITUATIONAL COACH’S BEATDOWN on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I believe that Michael Pineda and the Twins are worth the price of admission in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Adam Plutko. 

The pitchers: Plutko (6-4, 4.53 ERA) most recently was shelled for four runs over four innings in an 8-2 setback to the Rays on Sunday. 

Pineda (11-5, 4.11) won his fourth straight start and fifth consecutive decision after allowing two runs per six innings while also striking out nine in an 8-3 victory over the Tigers on Sunday. In two career starts vs. the Indians he’s 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. 

The pick: The Twins lost three of four to the Tribe at Target Field last month, so clearly they won’t be taking anything for granted. The Twins are moving in the opposite direction, having won 16 of their last 22. I’m laying the price on the focused hime side.

7* DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Twins.

The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for an outright victory, but for a number of different reasons I do indeed feel that this spread is too large for the Demon Deacons to cover under the Friday Night lights. Wake Forest came from behind to knock off Utah State 38-35 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. Rice lost 14-7 to Army, but the Owls were impressive from start to finish and I think they carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Wake Forest had 579 yards last week, but they ran 58 times and threw 47. That translates into only 5.51 yards per play, which ranked 75th in the country. Army ran for 231 yards vs. Rice, but the Owls held the vaunted Black Knights to just 4.1 yards per attempt, the third best in the country of the 26 FBS defensive units which gave up more than 200 yards on the ground last week. The Owls looked bad offensively last week, but Army is stout. Note that Wake Forest allowed 596 total yards of offense to Utah State, including 416 through the air. I’m grabbing the points.

Rice 10* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question in my opinion, I’m going to ultimately recommend that you grab as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two talented teams has its hands on the ball last. This is the league’s 100th anniversary season and this is in fact the oldest rivalry in the league. Chicago comes in off an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2018, but with the starters having seen extreme limited time in the pre-season, I believe the home side does indeed come out flat on Opening night. 

The pick: A 1-5 stretch during Nov-Dec. would de-rail the Packers last year and they’d go on to finish 6-9-1. Green Bay though is looking to jump-start its offense with Aaron Rodgers under center once again and it welcomes in new head coach Matt LaFleur, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans the last two years. Last year these teams split out and everything once again points to a competitive battle this season. The Packers went out and completely re-vamped their defense as well this year and I believe the moves they made in the off-season pay early dividends. Grab the points.

Green Bay Packers 10* play

The set-up: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight, I’m definitely going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber. 

The pitchers: Nova (9-11, 4.48 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Tribe this year (1-1, 2.14 ERA in three outings), but he enters off back-to-back losses and I definitely think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Bieber (12-7, 3.27) enters off a loss despite allowing only three runs over seven inning with nine K’s. Note that Bieber has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four career match ups vs. the White Sox. 

The pick: Chicago has actually won eight of 14 meetings in the season series this year, so clearly the home side won’t be looking past its opponent today. This one has “blowout” written all over it.

Cleveland Indians -1.5 10* play

The set-up: These are two hungry teams, but I think that the talent discrepancy on the mound makes the Astros the correct call in this matchup on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke, while the home side counters with Jordan Lyles.

The pitchers: Greinke (14-4, 2.99 ERA) is 4-0 in five starts since being acquired by the Astros. He gave up five runs to the Rays on Thursday over six innings, although he did strike out eight. 

Lyles (9-8, 4.55) is 4-1 in six starts since coming over from the Pirates, but he’s still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.77 ERA in all “home” situations this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 18-8 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Milwaukee is only 5-8 in its last 12 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. Lay the price with confidence.

Houston Astros 8* play

The set-up: While neither pitcher instills much confidence, Pittsburgh comes in as one of the hottest teams in the league right now and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller.

The pitchers: Alcantara (4-12, 4.22 ERA) allowed four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Reds in his last outing.

Keller (1-3, 8.62) allowed eight runs over four innings vs. Philadelphia on Wednesday (striking out eight as well.) 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, these teams are moving in opposite direction, with Pittsburgh having won eight of its last ten and the Marlins having dropped 13 of their last 16. Look for these strong trends to continue on Monday night and lay this price with confidence. 

Pittsburgh Pirates 10* play

The set-up: I think that laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the wise way to go in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anthony DeSclfani. 

The pitchers: Smyly (2-6, 6.95 ERA) pitched well for his new team in his first two starts, but over his last five he’s posted a 7.20 ERA. With his team desperate for victories though, I believe that the veteran settles down here and matches pace with his overachieving counterpart.

Desclafani (9-7, 4.05) comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout vs. the Marlins on Wednesday. While he does have a winning record (3-1) vs. the Phillies, his ERA vs. them sits a poor 5.40 in that span.

The pick: Additionally note that Philadelphia is still a sharp 18-11 this season vs. the NL Central, while Cincinnati is just 15-16 vs. southpaws. As mentioned off the top, I like Smyly to match DeSclafani and in a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value swings to the hungry dog.

10* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: Big changes occurred for both teams in the off-season. Kyler Murray is gone from Oklahoma, and Ed Oliver has left for Houston. Both teams have new coaching staff as well. It’s interesting to note that when these two teams last battled, it was UH which scored the upset to open the 2016 season. While I’m not calling for the upset here, I do think that the stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Sooners have been terrible defensively for years, but their offense has masked its inefficiencies. Alex Grinch is the new defensive coordinator for Oklahoma, but I still think the Sooners will struggle on that side of the ball this season. 

The pick: D’Eriq King is back for the Cougars after suffering an early injury last year and he has top RB Patrick Carr back as well (also top WR’s in Courtney Lark, Keith Corbin and Marquez Stevenson.) OU’s defense has been a disaster and while QB Jalen Hurts, a transfer from Alabama should make the offense one of the best in the nation again, the question marks defensively are the difference maker for me in the end. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: Lucas Giolito is putting together his finest season as a pro for the White Sox, but I still think he’s in over his head here vs. Braves’ veteran Julio Teheran and this locked in Braves home side. 

The pitchers: Giolito (14-7, 3.20 ERA) is coming off a loss to the Twins, allowing two runs over six innings. 

Teheran (8-8, 3.39) enters on top form, having posted 13 consecutive scoreless frames (a tiny 1.92 ERA over his last nine starts.)

The pick: Atlanta has taken the first two games of this series and I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas in the finale as well. Chicago on the other hand comes in with zero momentum, having lost five straight. I’m laying the very reasonable mid-sized price and expecting a rout. 

10* INTERLEAGUE SMASH-JOB on the ATL Braves.

The set-up: The Giants pulled away for a victory last night and I believe the home side will find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi, while the home side counters with Logan Webb.

The pitchers: Lucchesi (9-7, 4.11 ERA) is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts in San Francisco this year.

Webb (1-0, 4.66) makes his home debut tonight. So far he’s won at Arizona, before receiving a no-decision at Oakland. Two tough teams/venues. Now Webb benefits greatly from throwing in friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is a poor 8-10 (-5.1 units) this season as a road favorite of -110 or higher, while San Fran is +11.3 units vs. the division. 

San Francisco Giants 10* play

The set-up: No outright upset, but I think it’ll be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Miami Ohio finished 6-6 SU last year, while the Hawkeyes were 9-4. Miami Ohio though finished strong and it’s got a versatile offense which averaged 202 passing yards and 202 rushing yards per game (in eight conference games.) The Hawkeyes averaged 32.7 PPG vs. conference foes, while conceding only 20.6. 

The pick: Miami Ohio though is a sharp 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog, while Iowa is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference home games as a favorite of 21 points or more. This spread is a little large, grab the points.

Miami (OH) 8* play

The set-up: The Orange won’t be taking anything for granted in Week 1 after finishing 10-3 last year (6-2 in the ACC). Syracuse was invited the Camping World Bowl where it defeated WVU 34-18. The Flames finished 6-6 in 2018 and they still weren’t invited to go Bowling. Clearly Liberty will be out to score an early upset here after getting snubbed last season. 

The pick: The Orange were dominant defensively last year, but the unit has suffered turnover in the offseason. Syracuse has to deal with Maryland before a date vs. the Tigers, so I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout (Note as well that the Orange have seen the total fly over the number in four of their last five as a road favorite.) This number is a little low.

Syracuse/Liberty OVER 10* play

The set-up: There’s no “warm ups” for these two teams as their ACC schedule kicks off in Week 1. BC will then face three straight teams which failed to make a bowl berth last year, so the “look ahead” angle definitely comes into play here for the home side in my opinion. The Hokies have ODU and Furman up next and I believe they come to play today. VT’s offense will have some work to do to catch up to its defense. 

The pick: And that’s bad news for BC’s offensive line, which is the biggest question mark heading into this season. The Eagles defense is also breaking in seven new starters. That doesn’t bode well for a team which had difficulties last year controlling the clock. VT has problems on the offensive side of things, but I believe it’s defense controls this game and I look for it to be the deciding factor in the final outcome. Lay the points.

Virginia Tech 10* play

The set-up: North Carolina welcomes back Mack Brown as head coach as he’ll look to re-ignite his former program. UNC turns to QB Sam Howell, while USC goes with Jake Bentley. This is a neutral site game, which levels the playing field somewhat. South Carolina has the advantage at QB, but otherwise I feel that UNC matches up well with the Gamecocks across the board. 

The pick: The Tar Heels have offensive weapons at RB and at WR and I think Howell can match pace with his veteran counterpart. Note as well that South Carolina is just 4-5 ATS in its last non-conference games, while UNC is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. the SEC. I’m banking on Brown’s guidance to keep this one closer than expected. Grab the points.

UNC 10* play

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset today, but I do think that the writing is on the wall and much more competitive battle is in the cards between these in-state rivals. ECU sports a new coach in Mike Houston and he’ll look to take advantage of an NC State team which has lost several key players from last year’s team, including QB Ryan Finley (it’s interesting to note, that despite winning this game last year, the Pirates have won three of the last four in the series.) ECU hands the ball to Holton Ahlers, who had 1,785 yards and 12 TD’s in ten games for the Pirates last year (also had 592 rushing yards and another six TD’s on the ground.) ECU also has two veteran backs in Hussein Howe and Darius Pinnix. NC State on the other hand is starting a red shirt sophomore at QB today in Matt McKay. Last year he was 7 of 8 for 87 yards in six games (NC State also features all new RB’s.) 

The pick: The Pirates’ experience in the skill positions, especially at the QB spot make the visitors and the points the correct call in my opinion; grab the points!

East Carolina 9* play

The set-up: Leicester has gotten out to a quick start as it’s unbeaten over its first three games with two draws and a victory. Last week it pulled away for a 2-1 win at Sheffield. Bournemouth on the other hand comes in off its first loss of the campaign, falling 3-1 to the reigning champs at the Etihad. So far Bournemouth has failed to impress and I believe it’ll have its hands full here in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Leicester won the last meeting between the clubs convincingly (2-0) and I believe a similar final result is in the cards here as well. In fact Bournemouth has posted just one victory in the last five in this series. The Foxes have already held Chelsea and the Wolves to a draw this season and after last week’s encouraging result, I look for them to lay the hammer down here as well. Lay the price.

Leicester City 10* play

The set-up: I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards in this one. The Buffs have a new head coach in Mel Tucker and he has 11 returning starters, including senior QB Steven Montez to build a foundation upon. Colorado State only had three victories last year and I look for the home side to take advantage of this favorable season opening matchup. 

The pick: Last year the Rams had one of the Nation’s worst defensive units, allowing 451.5 YPG and 36.8 PPG. Colorado has won four straight in this series (by an average margin of 21.5 points). Collin Hill is a talented QB, but he’s in over his head here in my opinion vs. the re-worked Buffs defense. I’m expecting a complete rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Colorado 9* play

The set-up: I believe these non-conference opponents open up the playbook on Friday night and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Purdue went 6-7 in 2018, while Nevada was 8-5. But the Boilermakers overcame an 0-3 start to win six of their final nine games. The Wolfpack also started slowly by going 3-3, but they went 4-2 the rest of the way. 

The pick: Both teams return plenty of starters from last season and each will clearly be looking to “hit the ground running” in 2019 after their respective slow starts last year. In the end Nevada scored 25 or more points in nine of its 13 games, while Purdue would average just under 30 PPG last season. For all the situational reasons listed above, play the over.

Purdue/Nevada OVER 10* play

The set-up: Utah State was 11-2 in 2018. A big difference between this year and last for Utah State though is that head coach Matt Wells bolted for the Texas Tech job, meaning that Gary Andersen will be tasked to duplicate that mark. The Demon Deacons were just 7-6 overall last year, but they started slowly and closed strong. And that included two big victories right at the end, smashing Duke 59-7 in its regular season finale, before then holding on for a 37-34 victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. Utah State benefits from having Jordan Love back at QB, but he now leads a mostly unproven unit moving forward. Wake has some issues on the defensive side, but it catches a break here in Week 1. Wake Forest is led by Jamie Newman and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal tonight as well. 

The pick: This is a “FIRST HALF” “money line” selection. I think Wake is going to find a way to get the job done in the first half. The Demon Deacons’ core group remains on both sides of the ball and I believe that’s going to translate into early success on the field of play. 

Wake Forest (vs. Utah St) 1st Half Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: This should be an interesting series. There’s no question that this is an interesting matchup on the mound, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular situation. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia. 

The pitchers: Anderson (10-9, 4.08 ERA) is a poor 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA over his last six starts. 

Sabathia (5-8, 4.99) has endured a difficult campaign, but he’s started to turn the corner of late by pitching seven innings in two starts since returning from a right knee injury.

The pick: Bad news for all teams, Yanks’ slugger Aaron Judge has finally snapped his cold streak, as the big man enters Friday hitting .277 with 18 homers, 42 RBI’s and a .900 OPS overall, but he returns home after going 14 of 39 (.359) with six homers and 11 RBI’s on his team’s most recent road trip. The A’s swept a three-game series from New York at home and revenge is clearly a dish best served cold. Lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the New York Yankees.

The set-up: The Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 Championship tho shear, with 15 returning starters from last years team. The Utes get the job done with a suffocating defense which has all four defensive linemen returning from a rushing defense which led the conference with just 1003 YPG. The Utes also have an experienced offense, with QB Tyler Huntley back under center, along with RB Zack Moss. 

The pick: BYU had a 20-point third-quarter lead over Utah a year ago, but it wound up losing 35-27 in the end. The Cougars have lost eight in a row in this series. BYU is once again led by QB Zach Wilson. The secondary for the Cougars took a hit with both Chris Wilcox and Troy Warner injured in camp. BYU has to keep Utah honest, so look for the home side to try and establish its run game throughout. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it.

Utah/BYU UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Arizona State won’t be looking past Kent State here with what is expected to be a “wide open” Pac 12 South. Utah is the fav, but the Sun Devils will be pushing the pace from start to finish after watching Arizona blow its opener in Hawaii last weekend. Arizona actually finished second in the south last year, 7-6 overall and 5-4 in conference action. ASU has a tough matchup at No 18 Michigan State in Week 3, making this non-conference contest vs. the lowly Flashes that much more important. 

The pick: Kent State has zero bowl wins in its 99 year history. The Flashes were 1-7 in MAC action and 2-10 overall. Over the last six year they haven’t had a better record than 4-8. Ken State is led by Woody Barrett, who is a true dual threat. However, the tandem of QB Jayden Daniels and RB Eno Benjamin is going to prove to be too much for this porous Kent State defense to handle today in my opinion. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout.

Arizona St 10* play

The set-up: Neither team will start any of its starters tonight. So that means that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in my opinion. Tennessee was 0-4 SU/ATS last year and it’s 2-9 SU/ATS in the preseason dating back to 2017. 

The pick: Chicago comes in off a win over Indianapolis last weekend, erasing a 17-7 deficit by scoring 20 straight points. Keep your eyes on kick Eddy Pineiro, who had three extra points and two FG’s in the victory. I’m banking on Chicago’s backups carrying over that Week 3 momentum. Lay the points.

Chicago Bears 10* play

The set-up: Admittedly Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to pitching, but in this case I still think that Eduardo Rodriguez and the defending champs are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The visitors counter with the erratic Pete Lambert.

The pitchers: Rodriguez (15-5, 3.72 ERA) has been one of the best in the league over the last few months, going 11-2 with a 3.14 ERA over his last 17 trips to the hill. 

Lambert (2-4, 6.40) has gone 12 starts without a win and Colorado has gone just 2-10 in those games.

The pick: Boston’s disappointing season is coming to a close, but it still took the opener of this two-game series by a score of 10-6. Expect a similar outcome here as well and lay this price with confidence. 

Boston Red Sox 10* play

The set-up: I had a play on the Astros in their complete destruction of the Rays last night and I expect another high-scoring affair tonight. Perhaps not so lop-sided this time around though. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Yarbrough, while the home side counters with Gerrit Cole.

The pitchers: Yarbrough (11-3, 3.29 ERA) has been sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Yarbrough, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Cole (15-5, 2.75) has been brilliant over the last couple of months, going 11-0 with a 1.84 ERA. It’s VERY interesting to note though that he’s 0-2 with a 3.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa Bay. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go over in four of its last five after a win by five or more runs. This number is a little low.

Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 10* play

The set-up: This is the second leg of the Champions League playoff between APOEL Nicosia and host Ajax Amsterdam. And note, I believe it’ll be very similar to the first match in Cyprus, which saw these teams draw 0-0. The Dutch side had its hands full vs. the Cypriot team in the first match, and it will again here as well (note that the hosts actually have a poor home record, winning just once in five home matches in Champions League play.) 

The pick: So APOEL can not be taken lightly here at all, as it’s won four of its last six games in Champions League action. But note that the Cypriots have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten road Champions League matches. Ajax’s recent poor home record, combined with APOEL’s recent form makes the “under” the correct call in this one.

Ajax Amsterdam/Apoel Nicosia UNDER 10* play

The set-up: LA fell 4-3 to last night, but I think it’ll bounce back in what I believe to be a very favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side goes with Cal Quantrill. 

The pitchers: Buehler (10-3, 3.16 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays, going seven shutout frames and striking out eight in the unfortunate no-decision. 

Quantrill (6-4, 3.32) is 4-2 with a 1.79 ERA since the Mid Summer Classic, but one of his two losses came against these very Dodgers on August 3rd, getting shelled for four runs over four innings.

The pick: Note as well that Buehler is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three career starts vs. the Friars. As good as Quantrill has been this year, I give the nod to the red hot Buehler. Combined with the revenge factor from last night’s loss, it does indeed make this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

LA Dodgers 10* play

The set-up: Two of the best in the league over the last couple of years go head to head on the mound tonight, but for this particular selection, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton, while the Astros counter with ace Justin Verlander. 

The pitchers: Morton (13-5, 2.85 ERA) has alternated good starts with bad since the All Star Break, going 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.10 ERA over eight starts.

Verlander (15-5, 2.77) comes in off a rare 2-1 setback vs. Detroit, allowing two runs and posting 11 K’s over nine innings of work (is 9-4 with a 3.30 ERA over 19 career match ups vs. the Rays.) 

The pick: The Astros have won seven of eight after a three-game sweep of the Angels over the weekend and I believe that momentum is carried over into the opener of this series and as we get ready to close out the regular season. Lay the price.

Houston Astros 8* play

The set-up: True that Padres starter Eric Lauer is 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA in six career starts vs. the Dodgers, but I think he’ll finally have his hands full tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May.

The pitchers: May (1-2, 4.26) faced the Padres on August 2nd at Dodger Stadium and he was shelled for four runs off nine hits over five innings. 

Lauer (6-8, 4.47 ERA) is 8-15 with a 5.47 ERA career record vs. the rest of the league. Suffice it to say, I believe this lop-sided trend of domination vs. the Dodgers comes to a predictable end here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers have seen the total go over the number in 15 of 19 this year on the road when the total is between 8 and 8.5, while the Padres have seen the total fly over in 21 of 18 this season at home with a total in the 8 or 8.5 range. This number is low, play the over.

LA Dodgers/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely makes the Reds the correct call in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray, while the home side goes with Pablo Lopez. 

The pitchers: Gray (9-6, 2.92 ERA) is 6-1 with a 1.58 ERA over his past ten starts. 

Lopez (5-5, 4.23) has been out since June 15th because of a shoulder issue and I think he’ll predictably struggle in his first start back. 

The pick: Lopez is also 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in one start vs. Cincinnati this season. In three career appearances vs. the Fish, Gray is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: The Yanks won the opener 10-2, but the Dodgers took the second game 2-1. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score as what we saw last night though once it’s all said and done with the Yankees’ Domingo German facing the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. 

The pitchers: German (16-3, 4.15 ERA) enters off a rare poor performance, allowing six runs over six innings to the A’s. German though has been the model of consistency and clearly there’s no need to hit the panic button after one lousy outing.

Kershaw (13-2, 2.71) owns a 0.90 ERA over 20 innings faced vs. the Yanks (although he doesn’t have a decision yet.) So far all 22 of his starts have been six innings or more, with 19 of them as quality (and note that he hasn’t thrown more than 101 pitches in any outing.) 

The pick: I think German bounces back and there’s also no reason not to think that Kershaw can continue his resurgent season in friendly confines. When you add it all up, it makes this total a little high in my opinion. 

NY Yankees/LA Dodgers UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers have seen better campaigns, as each for the most part has struggled. Colorado won’t be going down without a fight today, but the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor at the end of the day. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela, while the home side goes with Michael Wacha. 

The pitchers: Senzatela (8-7, 6.29 ERA) posted a 17.18 ERA over three July starts, which then saw him land in Triple-A because of it. He’s back today, but clearly he once again finds himself in a difficult spot. 

Wacha (6-6, 5.22) has seemingly started to turn things around, allowing just two runs over his last nine innings of work spanning two starts. 

The pick: After last night’s 6-0 win, St. Louis now holds a 1.5 games lead over the Cubs. Clearly the home side can ill afford to take the foot off the gas here. Lay the price. 

St. Louis Cards 10* play

The set-up: Suffice it to say, I’m expecting some goals to find the back of the net in this one. The Spurs welcome back Heung-min Son to the mix as well today, after taking four points from Villa and City.  

The pick: But Newcastle clearly won’t be going down without a fight here after a disappointing start to the campaign. The Magpies have lost both of their opening matches, including a 3-1 loss to Norwich City. Newcastle will once again have its hands full with the hosts aggressive attack, as its three-at-the-back system was clearly exposed last weekend. Newcastle boss Steve Bruce is on the hot seat already, meaning the visitors have to push the pace as well today. When you add it all up, I look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Tottenham/Newcastle OVER 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the Chargers have already stated that starting QB Philip Rivers won’t see any action at all in this one. LA still has plenty of talent of course, but when looking for “difference makers” in the preseason (especially in Week 3, the all important “dress rehearsal”), then I do definitely believe that this is significant. 

The pick: I’m also partial to Seattle’s backup QB Geno Smith, who wlll reportedly see significant time here as well (the Hawks will also feature third stringer JT Barrett as well today). The Chargers turn to Tyrod Tyalor and Cardelle Jones, both of whom I believe will struggle vs. the Hawks’ aggressive defensive front. I’m banking on Wilson and company delivering the goods in Week 3. Play on the Hawks money-line.

Seattle Seahawks 10* play

The set-up: Real Salt Lake had its five match unbeaten streak ended with a 2-0 loss to LAFC last time out and clearly it’ll be out to atone for that. Colorado won’t be lacking for motivation here though after losing three of the last four in this series, as well as dropping three and drowning once in its last six overall. 

The pick: These teams have a history of playing to higher-scoring affairs, but the injuries to Real Salt Lake are real at the moment: Jordan Allen out with a knee injury; Tony Beltran out with knee injury and Nick Besler out with a foot injury and Aaron Herrera out after picking up a red card last match. With Colorado content to play a “war of attrition,” and considering the injuries to the home side, I believe this one falls well below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

Real Salt Lake/Colorado Rapids UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Outright upset? It’s not out of the realm of possibility at all in my opinion. After finishing 4-17 in 2017, the Gators went 10-3 in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach. That included a win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. While QB Feleipe Franks is back under center for Florida, the big question mark for the Gators (and I think it’s significant in Week 1), is that there are four new starters on the offensive line. 

The pick: Miami was just 7-6 last year. Manny Diaz is now the head coach for the Hurricanes and he went out and grabbed a top play-caller in Dan Enos. Jarren Williams beat out N’Kosi Perry and Tate Martell for the starting QB position for the home side. Williams had two of the ACC’s top receivers in Coral Gables and buffalo transfer KJ Osborn. The uncertain up front for Florida makes the Hurricanes the correct call in Week 1 in my opinion. Grab the points.

Miami Florida 10* play

The set-up: While neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is high. After the Marlins’ 19-11 slug-fest victory yesterday, I think the stage is set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Efin (7-11, 4.57 ERA) is 3-2 with a 4.37 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Marlins.

Yamamoto (4-4, 4.31) struck out a career-high nine batters over six innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday and he’s 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies this year. 

The pick: Note that Philly slugger Bryce Harper remains out of the line-up, as he’s expecting a new child. I think these hungry starters throw deep and I look for this total to indeed sneak under once it’s all said and done.

Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 10* play