The set-up: With a chance to erase a shaky start to the 2019 NCAA Tournament with a big win, I look for Duke to finally put it all together and ride its super stars to a solid victory over MSU in Elite Eight. Neither team has an advantage at coach obviously (and no need to talk about their past or any of their records, even the most casual CBB fan is fully aware of Mike Krzyzewksi and Tom Izzo’s accomplishments). It’s been a couple of “close calls” for the Blue Devils, but the combination of RJ Barrett, Tre Jones and Zion Williamson combined for 63 points in their last win and I think they’ll prove a matchup problem for the Spartans. Slowing down LSU is one thing, but I think MSU is going to have a much more difficult time from this highly motivated Duke side that’s now playing with a chip on its shoulder. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Duke is 3-1 ATS this season after falling to cover the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on Duke.

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I'm playing on SD. Analysis to follow

The set-up: Cole Hamels returns to Texas to take on his former club and he faces a volatile counterpart in Lance Lynn. After the first two games of this interleague series it’s tied at 1-1, but I think that Hamels and the visiting side has the clear advantage tonight.

The pitchers: Hamels went 4-3 with a 2.36 ERA for Chicago after getting acquired at the trade deadline. 

Lynn has been bouncing from one team to the next over the last two years, including in St. Louis, Minnesota, New York and now to Texas. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is still 42-20 (+13 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Texas is just 12-33 (-16 units) in its last 35 as a home underdog of +125 or more. I’m banking Hamels getting the better of his counterpart today.

Chicago Cubs

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The set-up: Dallas comes in off a 105-99 loss in Miami, while OKC fell 115-105 at home to the Nuggets. The Thunder took the last game between these teams 122-102 on December 31st, but the Mavs are 2-1 so far in the season series. OKC is barely holding onto the eighth seed in the West right, tied with the Spurs, so the motivation to play spoiler is definitely real for the visitors today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing with two days rest, while the Thunder are only 18-19 ATS at home this year and only 4-6 ATS in their last ten off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. OKC continues to stumble and I like Dallas to once again push it to the brink. Grab the points.

Dallas Mavericks

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The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, the oddsmakers are expecting a very tight game. And while I don’t think the outright win is out of the question, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. The Tigers are on a roll right now and the momentum they’ve created is very real. And at this time of year in sports, “momentum” can ver a very real and even tangible factor. After winning the SEC tournament, the Tigers have won four straight, most recently destroying Kansas 89-75, before then dismantling the No. 1 seed Tar Heels. Kentucky was rolling along until a tougher than expected 62-58 win over No. 3 Houston (note that that Wildcats had 14 turnovers, which were offset by a 36-23 rebounding discrepancy.) 

The pick: Auburn suffered a blow with the injury to Okeke, but Auburn still possesses the talent to hang around late. I’m expecting a war until the end. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

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The set-up: The Rangers won’t be in the postseason, but they remain competitive down the stretch, most recently posting a 4-2 home win over St. Louis. The Flyers come in motivated here after a 5-2 loss at Carolina. Philadelphia has to be liking its chances today as New York has gone just 12-26 on the road, averaging 2.58 goals and allowing 3.87 in those contests. Overall the Flyers are 19-20 at home, averaging 2.97 goals and allowing 3.26 in those contests.

The pick: Neither team is going to be in the playoffs, but I’m expecting a faster paced, wide open affair between these still proud organizations. Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” 11 of its last 18 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 23 vs. division opponents. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Flyers/Rangers OVER

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The set-up: I base my selections on many different things and for this particular one, I’m going to use good old plain common sense. Anaheim is in Calgary on Friday night and I believe it’ll come in “flat” here in the second game of the back to back. The Oilers have been all but eliminated from playoff contention, but they’ll be eager for a win here after a 3-2 shootout loss to Dallas at home in their latest outing. 

The-pick: Note that the Ducks are just 2-6 in their second game of a back to back on the road, while the Oilers are 7-3 in their last ten home games following an OT loss in which they scored two or less goals in. Lay the price.

Edmonton Oilers

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The set-up: The prodigal son returns to Texas! Well, maybe that’s a little far fetched. But Cubs’ starter Yu Darvish does return to Texas where he spent his first five years of his career and he comes in with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove after an injury plagued 2018. Darvish’s counterpart today though has more questions than answers at the moment.

The pick: Darvish was just 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA last year. Darvish put together a decent spring and to say he’ll be leaned upon by the Cubbies this year would be a big understatement. 

The home side turns to Edinson Volquez, who was 4-8 with a 4.19 ERA for the Marlins in 2017. The 35 year old had Tommy John surgery last year and he made five spring starts this season, totalling 13.1 innings of work.

The pick: Darvish’s issues aren’t nearly as great as Volquez’s and I believe the Japanese hurler returns to form this season. Or at least for one game vs. his former team. Lay it.

Chicago Cubs

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The set-up: Portland comes in off a big road win in Atlanta just last night and I have a hard time seeing the team mustering up the same energy in the second game of the back to back and at the very end of another long regular season. Detroit comes in off a 115-98 home win over Orlando as it continues to fight for playoff positioning as the season winds down. The home side will be out to dictate the pace tonight and take advantage of this road weary Blazers side. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up great for a lower-scoring “under.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Portland has seen the total go under the number in 23 of its last 38 when playing against a team with a winning record, while Detroit has seen the total go under in 17 of 27 non-conference games. This number is a little high.

Trail Blazers/Pistons UNDER

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The set-up: It’s a contrast of styles. They do say that “defense” wins championships, but for the most part that pertains to the gridiron. Texas Tech though has looked brilliant on both ends of the court and I believe they’re going to give the No. 1 seed everything it can handle tonight. Texas Tech destroyed Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga easily handled FSU 72-58. In the win over the Wolverines the Red Raiders show 43.6 percent from the floor while holding Michigan to just 32.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs shot 40.3 percent in their win over the Seminoles, while holding FSU to 37.2 percent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less per contest. I think defense wins the day in this one. That said, grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

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The set-up: So far these teams have split the first two games of the season. Detroit won 2-0 in ten innings in the first one, while Toronto returned the favor in a 6-0 victory on Friday. I like the home side to now build off yesterday’s win and to wrap up its first series victory of the season at the same time.

The pitchers: Detroit turns to Spencer Turnbull, who was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA last year. Turnbull put together a great spring by posting a 15:3 K/W over 15 innings to go along with a 1.80 ERA. Still, clearly the book is still out on Turnbull at this point.

The book is still out on Jays’ pitcher Aaron Sanchez as well, who has been hampered by injury over the last two years. Sanchez though looks 100% healthy after a great spring himself, posting a 1.53 ERA over 17.2 innings of work. 

The pick: I like the veteran hurler, who is out to re-gain his dominant 2016 form. This line could/should easily be much higher in my opinion.

Toronto Blue Jays

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Selction: Mets/Nationals UNDER

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: Colorado has all the momentum here. It also now has a two point lead for the final wild card spot in the West over these very Coyotes. Arizona had lost five in a row before a 1-0 win over Chicago on Tuesday. Colorado though has gone 5-0-1 over its last six after a win over Vegas on Wednesday. Clearly this is a big game for both teams and I simply can’t understate how important I think that the home ice advantage is. The Coyotes offense has been completely anemic of late and I have a hard time seeing them just “flipping a switch” here (note that Arizona has scored just seven times over its last six games.) The Avs got further good news today with the expected return of captain Gabriel Landeskog. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Coyotes are just 9-20 in their last 29 when playing on two days rest, while the Avalanche are 6-2 in their last eight home games. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

Colorado Avalanche

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The set-up: The Jazz have won three straight and I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Washington broke a five-game losing streak with a win over Phoenix in its latest outing. So far the Wizards have average 114.3 PPG, while allowing 117.1. The Jazz come in having won eight of their last night, but they still only average 110.0 PPG. Utah does allow only 105.9 PPG, but this is in fact a spot in which its struggled in all year. 

The pick: As note that the Jazz are just 9-14 ATS this season after two or more consecutive wins. Washington on the other hand is a sharp 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

Washington Wizards

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Selection: The set-up: Auburn comes in “under the radar” in my opinion, beating Mexico State in the first round, followed by an 89-75 destruction of Kansas in the second round. UNC enters off a win over Iona and a big 81-59 victory over Washington on Sunday. Auburn won the SEC tournament and they come into this one having won nine straight. Overall the Tigers average 79.8 PPG, while allowing 68.5. The Tar Heels have won ten of 11 and average 86 points, while conceding 72.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral court underdog or pick, while UNC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine post-season tournament games. I think Auburn’s depth and momentum keeps it in this game late. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

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The set-up: The Astros took the opener 5-1 on Thursday afternoon and I believe an even bigger blowout is in the cards in the second game Friday night.

The pitchers: The Astros turn to Gerrit Cole, who was 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 2018. Over five spring starts Cole posted a 2.81 ERA and .179 batting average. 

The Rays counter with Charlie Morton, who threw for the Astros for the last few years and who was 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA last season. 

The pick: Morton has been fantastic over the last three years, but a new venue and team brings familiarity issues. I like Cole to continue his dominant form and for the hard-hitting visiting side to beat up on its former team mate. Lay the price.

Houston Astros

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The set-up: The Rockies dominated the Marlins from “the get go” on Thursday, eventually winning 6-3. I expect a similar lop-sided beatdown here as well. 

The pitchers: The Rockies’ turn to German Marquez, who had 230 K’s last season and who had a 2.95 road ERA. He was 14-11 with a 3.77 ERA overall last year, but would post a 2.61 ERA after the All Star break. 

The Marlins’ counter with Trevor Richards, who went 4-9 with a 4.42 ERA as a rookie last year and who should be much improved this season after a strong spring. 

The pick: The Rockies David Dahl went 3 for 4 with two runs scored on Thursday, while short-stop Trevor Story went yard (Story hit 88 long-balls over the last two years.) I believe the visitors have major advantages both on the mound and at the plate. Lay it.

Colorado Rockies

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The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I’m going to recommend what I feel to be a healthy amount of points in the end. MSU has cruised to this point with relatively simple wins over Bradley and Minnesota, while LSU struggled to get by Yale and Maryland. Overall the Tigers average 80.9 PPG, while allowing 72.9. The Spartans average only 75.8 PPG, while conceding just a 37.7 percent field goal shooting percentage. 

The pick: The Tigers have weathered the storm and won’t be going down without a fight. While MSU sports the clearly superior defense, LSU’s offense will push the Big Ten favorite to the brink in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is already 8-2 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less, while MSU is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

LSU

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The set-up: Both teams easily destroyed their first two opponents. I expect a battle until the end between these evenly matched teams. I also believe that this number is much too low. The Red Raiders most recently destroyed Buffalo 78-58, as all five starters scored in double digits. Overall the Red Raiders average 73.2 PPG, while allowing only 59.2. Michigan though is back in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season. The Wolverines average 78.2 PPG, while allowing only 58.2.

The pick: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation, but note that the Red Raiders have seen the total go “over” in six of their last eight following a a SU win, while the Wolverines have seen the total go “over” five of their last seven after holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Michigan/Texas Tech Over

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The set-up: Both teams easily destroyed their first two opponents. I expect a battle until the end between these evenly matched teams. I also believe that this number is much too low. The Red Raiders most recently destroyed Buffalo 78-58, as all five starters scored in double digits. Overall the Red Raiders average 73.2 PPG, while allowing only 59.2. Michigan though is back in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season. The Wolverines average 78.2 PPG, while allowing only 58.2.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TT is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points, while Michigan is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points. I’m expecting an all out war and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two very evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

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The set-up: The Jets have lost two of their last three and after falling at home to Dallas last time out, I believe it’ll be “all hands on deck” here. The Isles come to town off a shutout loss in Columbus and I believe they’ll have a difficult time mustering much of an offensive attack here either vs. the focused home side in this difficult road venue. The Isles have only scored six goals over their last five games. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are still 68-27 in their last 95 at home and 32-15 in their last 47 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Isles are 1-4 in their last five when playing on one days rest and just 11-27 in their last 38 road games against at team with a home winning percentage over .600. All things considered, I think this line could easily be a lot higher. 

Winnipeg Jets 10* play

The set-up: Purdue advanced with an 87-61 win over Villanova on Saturday, while Tennessee advanced with an 83-77 OT victory over Iowa. The last time these teams played together was in 2017 at the Battle 4 Atlantis and the Vols posted the 78-75 OT win. Purdue puts up an average of 76.1 PPG, while allowing 66.1. The Vols are averaging 81.7 PPG, while allowing only 68.9. 

The pick: Purdue though is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, while Tennessee is 10-5 ATS this year after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. I think the Vols depth and pace proves to the be the difference. Play on Tennessee.

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The set-up: Outright victory? VERY possible in my opinion! The Bulldogs and Seminoles are evenly matched. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor to advance, while FSU beat Vermont and Murray State. Last year the Seminoles destroyed the Bulldogs 75-60 in the Sweet 16 and I think a similar upset is possible here as well. FSU comes in on top form having won eight of their last nine and it is 16-2 since January. The Noles allow 67 PPG, while the Zags allow 64.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Gonzaga is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 NCAA games and interestingly only 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. the ACC, while FSU is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. 

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The set-up: The Indians and Twins collide on opening day and I think we’re getting a great price on the “superior” starter.

The pitchers: The Indians send out Corey Kluber who was 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 2017 and 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA in 2018. The veteran right-hander has exceeded 200 innings during each of the past five seasons with a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP during that span.

The Twins counter with Jose Berrios, who was 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA in 2017 and 12-11 with a 3.84 ERA in 2018. It’s important to note that Berrios was just 4-7 with a 4.83 ERA in all “day” games last year. 

The pick: Big expectations from each side, but Kluber gets the nod on the mound and the Indians get the nod at the plate and when you put those two crucial factors together, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. 

Cleveland Indians 8* play

The set-up: Two teams which hope to be in the postseason collide in this National League contest on Thursday afternoon and with their respective “aces” getting the call, everything points to a low-scoring pitchers duel in my opinion. 

The pitchers: Jacob deGrom gets the call for New York and last year he finished 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. deGrom just signed a five-year 137.5 million dollar contract on Tuesday.

Max Scherzer gets the nod for the home side. Scherzer was 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA in 2017 and 18-7 with a 2.53 ERA in 2018. Scherzer struck out 12 in his final spring tune-up on Friday.

The pick: Throw the stats out the window on Opening Day. I expect these two hungry Cy Young winners to “steal the show” and to battle deep into the latter frames.

Nationals/Mets UNDER

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The set-up: Dallas is making a strong push towards the playoffs and it’s historically enjoyed a lot of success in Calgary. But after five straight wins on the road, I thnk the Stars will finally come up short here in this difficult road venue. Dallas has gotten unbelievable goaltending play from Ben Bishop, but the Flames won’t want to take the foot off the gas quite yet with six games remaining. In fact, if the playoffs were to start today, then these two teams would be playing against each other. With that in mind, I think the home side protects home ice tonight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 10-13 (-7 units) this year after a win by two goals or more, while Calgary is 21-12 (+6.5 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent (just lost in Dallas two weeks ago). Lay the price.

Calgary Flames

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Selection: The set-up: NC State hosts Lipscomb in the NIT quarterfinals. The Wolfpack got back Harvard to advance, led by CJ Bryce with 16 points and seven boards. The Bison advanced with an 86-69 rout of North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans, led by 24 points from Rob Marberry. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Lipscomb is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a SU win, while the NC State Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU win and 7-3 ATS in their last ten at home. I’m banking on NC State’s defense and the home town crowd to prove to be too much for the Bison tonight.

NC State Wolfpack

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The set-up: Indiana comes in off a 124-88 win over Denver on Sunday, breaking a four-game slide. The Pacers will look to duplicate that performance here in this difficult road venue. The Thunder are out to atone for a 115-103 loss in Memphis in their latest outing. Indiana rallied from behind to knock off OKC 108-106 at home two weeks ago, so the home side also plays with revenge. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically as a faster paced, wide open shootout. 

The pick: Note as well though that Indiana has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 18 after scoring 115 points or more this season, while OKC has seen the total go “over” in nine of its last 13 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: I don’t expect either of these conference leaders to give an inch tonight. Houston has won five of six, including back-to-back victories over the Pelicans and Spurs, while the Bucks come in off back-to-back wins as well over the Cavs and Heat. Note that Houston was without point guard Chris Paul when it lost to the Bucks at home in January, setting up the revenge game for the visitors tonight. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as more of a “run-and-gun” shootout than a slower-paced “chess match.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of nine this season off a win vs. a division rival, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” in seven of ten this year after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. With each team pushing the pace from start to finish, I expect this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

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The set-up: After their 2-1 OT win over the Habs on Sunday, I think the Hurricanes will come out flat in the nation’s capital. Washignton comes in off a 3-1 win over the Flyers on Sunday. Overall the Hurricanes average 2.97 goals, while allowing 2.72. Washington averages 3.37 goals and it allows 3.07. 

The pick: This has been a difficult matchup for Carolina, as the Hurricanes have lost seven of their last nine in Washington. The Capitals come in on top form having won nine of their last ten as the favorite and with playoffs looming just around the corner, I look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas here as well. Lay the price.

Washington Capitals 10* play

The set-up: Two teams with the best names of all time clash in the CIT quarterfinals tonight. The Presbyterian Blue Hose advanced by defeating Robert Morris 77-70. Overall the Blue Hose average 78.6 PPG. The Herd punched their ticket to the quarterfinals are a 78-73 win over IUPUI. Marshall so far has averaged 80.1 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Hose are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Thundering Herd are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. Marshall also has a huge advantage here by earning the second round bye, as clearly its much more rested. Lay the points.

Marshall Thundering Herd 10* play

The set-up: The Suns have lost three straight, but I think they put up a fight here down the stretch and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Phoenix got 32 points from Devin Booker in the Suns’ most recent setback to the Kings. Utah destroyed the Bulls on the road in their last game (after losing on the road in Atlanta), but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight in its first game back from the extended East coast road trip.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Utah is just 1-2 ATS this season after a huge blowout victory of 30 or more points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Both teams are “hungry” for wins, so that entire angle can be thrown out the window. Winnipeg moved into first place in the Central with its convincing 5-0 win over Nashville on Saturday. Winnipeg won’t be taking the foot off the gas with just a handful of games remaining, meaning that the home games are even that much more important at this part of the season. The Stars are getting spectacular goaltending from Ben Bishop, who leads the NHL with a 2.05 GAA. But Winnipeg has a pretty good goaltender itself in Connor Hellebuyck, who is 31-20-2 with a 2.93 GAA this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 2-8 in its last ten vs. a team with a winning record, while Winnipeg is 5-0 in its last five when playing on one days rest and 17-4 in its last 21 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Expect Winnipeg to keep the foot on the gas once again and lay the price.

10* play on the Jets.

The set-up: Clearly the 76ers won’t be taking anything for granted here. The Magic have won four straight as they try to keep pace in the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. Orlando has lost two of three in the season series as well. But this is a matchup which favors the 76ers. Philadelphia comes in focused as well after getting upset in Atlanta on Sunday. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112, while the Magic average 106.1 PPG, while allowing 106.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following at ATS loss and just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Philadelphia is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 following a SU loss. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Vancouver won’t be playing in the post-season, but it won’t be going down without a fight here. The Canucks have won three of their last four games, remaining competitive despite an off-season of golf looming just a couple of weeks away. Columbus can’t take anything for granted either, as it’s fallen three points back of the final Wild Card spot in the West. I’m expecting both teams to push the pace of this one from start to finish and a faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more goals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Columbus has seen the total go “over” the number in 13 of its last 19 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game, while Vancouver has seen the total fly “over” in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records. 

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The set-up: UC Irvine clearly can’t be taken lightly after knocking off K-State in the opening round 70-64. The Anteaters have averaged 107.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Note that UC Irvine has held its opposition to just 40.7 percent shooting from inside the arc, which ranks first in the country. The Ducks smashed Wisconsin 72-54, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this aggressive Anteaters defense. Overall the Ducks average 108.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 92.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UC Irvine is 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Oregon is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. Bank on the Anteaters going down with a fight, but don’t be shocked by the outright either. Either way though, grab the points.

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The set-up: It’s the No. 12 seed Liberty Flames vs. the No. 4 seed VT Hokies in the second round. Suffice it to say, I expect the Flames to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Liberty went 14-2 in league play and won the A-Sun regular season and conference tournament. The Flames stunned Mississippi State in the first round. Liberty averages 111.5 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 99.9 points per 100 possessions. VT beat St. Louis 66-52 for its first NCAA Tournament win since 2007. The Hokies average 118.0 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but VT is just 2-3 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Liberty is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after playing a game as an underdog. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Buffalo beat Arizona State 91-74, while Texas Tech demolished UNT 72-57 in the opening round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The Bulls are rolling, having won 13 straight, including the MAC Title game, but I think their high-powered offense (averages 85.1 PPG, while conceding 70.6) finally has a letdown here vs. this step up in competition, especially vs. the Red Raiders suffocating defense which allows just 59.2 PPG (averages 73.1). 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral court games after scoring 90 or more point in its previous game, while Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

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The set-up: Denver comes to town off a 111-93 road win over the Knicks, while the Pacers enter off a 112-89 road loss at Golden State on Thursday. Denver has dominated this series of late, winning the last two, including a 102-100 victory in the first matchup on March 16th. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Overall Denver is 7-3 in its last ten, averaging 110.8 points in that span. The Pacers return home after an 0-4 Western road swing. Indiana is averaging 107.7 PPG, while allowing 104.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, while Indiana is only 1-4 ATS in its last five after playing on two days of rest. I think this is a bad matchup for Indiana and I look for the visitors to keep the good times rolling for at least one more night. Play on Denver.

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The set-up: Washington advanced with a convincing 78-61 win over Utah State in the first round. The Huskies average only 70.1 PPG this year, while UNC averages 86.1. However, the Tar Heels have looked sloppy of late and they actually trailed Iona at the half on Friday. Washington’s defense looked impressive in the first round and I think we’ll see a repeat performance here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 3-1 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while UNC is just 13-14 ATS in their last 27 when playing on a neutral court. Grab the points, expect a tight battle.

9* play

The set-up: The Tigers have won nine straight after holding on for a 78-77 win over New Mexico State on Thursday. Kansas has won four of its last five after destroying Northeastern 87-53 in Round 1. Auburn averages 78.9 PPG and it concedes 68.8. Kansas averages 75.7 PPG, while allowing 69.6.

The pick: Not only does Auburn have the advantage on paper, but note that it’s also 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU win, while Kansas is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. I think this is a matchup which favors the SEC. Lay the short points.

9* play

The set-up: Miami comes in “dog tired” here after its loss in Milwaukee just last night. Washington’s playoff hopes took another hit with its 113-108 home loss to Denver on Thursday. The Heat have gone 2-1 so far in this series. But Miami is playing the fourth game of a four game trip, including the second in two nights. The last thing the Heat want to do is to turn tonight’s contest into a “track meet.” Miami is 5-5 in the second game of back-to-back situational this year, averaging 109.8 points and conceding 107.1 in those contests. The Wizards enter having lost three straight. Over their last ten game they’re 4-6, allowing 117.4 points during that stretch. 

The pick: However note that the Wizards have seen the total go “under” the number in four of five already this year off a cover where the team lost the game SU as an underdog. Additionally note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 22 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: I think Boston bounces back here after falling 118-115 in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hornets look poised for a predictable letdown after their 113-106 home win over the Wolves. Boston has taken two of three in the season series thus far. The C’s average 112.7 PPG and they concede 107.7. Over its last ten games Boston is 6-4, averaging 116 points and allowing 113.4. The Hornets average 110.4 PPG and they concede 111.5. Charlotte is 4-6 in its last ten, scoring 106.5 PPG in that span.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Charlotte is still just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

10* play

The set-up: Chicago has been on fire in the second half and it finds itself sitting at one game over .500. However the Hawks will be desperate to break a two-game slide and to gain some precious ground with limited time left on the equally as hungry Avs. The Avs are currently tied with the Coyotes for eighth spot, so they can ill afford to take the foot off the gas here either. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great as more of a wide open shootout, than a slower-paced defensive battle.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of 19 this year trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Colorado has seen the total go “over” in all five games that it’s played in this season after playing to three or more consecutive “unders.” This number is low, play the “over.”

9* play

The set-up: Both teams come in off losses, but the Coyotes are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and I believe they’ll bounce back in this favorable spot. Arizona lost 4-3 to Florida on the road, while New Jersey comes in off a 5-1 home loss to Boston. Going into their Eastern road trip the Coyotes had the eighth spot locked down, but after back-to-back losses, they’re now tied with Colorado. Coyotes’ goaltender Darcy Kuemper remains a respectable 11-12 with a 2.83 GAA on the road this season. The Devils are just counting down the days to the off season. New Jersey goaltender Cory Schneider is 5-15 with a 3.18 GAA on the year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 5-1 in its last six as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range, while New Jersey is 21-48 in its last 69 as a home underdog. New Jersey has lost three straight, getting outscored 12-2 in those games. Go with the desperate Coyotes to get back on track in a big way in this favorable matchup. Lay it.

10* play

The set-up: The Terps advanced by the skin of their teeth in a 79-77 win over Belmont on Thursday, while LSU held on for 79-75 victory over LSU in its Round 1 matchup. Neither team looked great, but they did enough to advance. However LSU looked a lot better overall in my opinion. The Terps had to play “catch up” as well all game on Thursday, falling behind by 12 points early (the Bruins missed a long 3 at the buzzer, which would have been the outright upset.) Overall Maryland shot just 43.5 percent from the floor in that one, including only 27.3 percent from range. LSU won the SEC regular season title, but was upset by Florida in the League Tournament. The Tigers shot 45.9 percent from the floor in their win over Yale, while holding it to just 21.6 percent (8 for 37) from range. 

The pick: Throw the trends out the window at this point. LSU has the big advantage on the offensive end and its improved defensive play of late makes it the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay it.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams “survived” their opening rounds and neither can be ver happy with they it performed. Neither covered the spread. The Terrapins advanced with a 79-77 win over Belmont, having to play “catch up” the entire game after falling behind by 13 early, while LSU held on for a 79-75 victory over Yale. Maryland averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 65.4, while LSU averages 81.3 PPG, while allowing 73.1. However, after both teams’ lacklustre efforts in the first rounds, I’m expecting each to push the pace from start to finish in Round 2.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten when playing with one or less days rest, while LSU has seen the total fly “over” in 15 of its last 20 as a neutral four favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: The UCF Knights look to make the most of this opportunity with their first visit to the NCAA Tournament since 2005. UCF averages 72.1 PPG, while allowing just 64.3. Keep your eyes on BJ Taylor, who had 16 points and 3.3 assists per game this season. The Rams have plenty of veteran experience and they’ve advanced to at least the second round in six of their last seven NCAA Tournament appearances, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. VCU averages only 71.4 PPG, while allowing 61.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral four games and 4-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while VCU is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 neutral court games. Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: Mississippi State earned an auto bid despite getting ousted in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Liberty was 14-2 in A-Sun Conference play and also earned an auto bid after winning the conference tournament. Mississippi State averages 117.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Liberty Flames average 110.6 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 99.7 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Liberty is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while Mississippi State is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.

9* play

The set-up: Washington went 15-3 in the Pac-12, but it was upset by Oregon in the Conference tournament title game. Utah State is 17-1 in its last 18 and it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Huskies though won the Pac 12 regular season title. I think the Washington player Jaylen Nowell, who earned Pac 12 Player of the Year honors will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Aggies today (note that Washington also has Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle as well.) Utah State beat SDSU 64-57 in the title game, but I have a hard time seeing the Aggies’ offense keeping pace today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Utah State is just 7-8 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. I think the Huskies depth on both end of the floor proves to be too much for the Aggies in this one.

10* play

The set-up: Iowa lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, while Cincinnati just won the AAC Tournament. Overall the Hawkeyes average 78.3 PPG, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing five of their last six, including the listless 74-53 setback at Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. The Bearcats destroyed Houston 69-57 in the Tournament title game. Ultimately I think that Cincinnati’s suffocating defense will prove to be the difference. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games and 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games, while Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. I’m laying the points and expecting a beatdown.

9* play

The set-up: ODU earned its spot in The Big Dance by defeating WKU 62-56 in the Conference USA Tournament title game on Saturday. The Monarchs won’t be going down without a fight today as they look to take advantage of a Boilermakers team still reeling from a 75-73 Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals loss to Minnesota. ODU won both the regular season title and the Conference tournament title. The Monarchs average 66.2 PPG and they allow only 60.9. Purdue averages 76.2 PPG and it allows 66.8. 

The pick: The Monarchs are going to run this shot clock down and make the Boilermakers work their asses off for every point. Take it for what you will as well, but ODU is 9-4 ATS in non-conference games this season, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: These teams are similar in that they both employ a 2-3 matchup zone defense. Baylor finished 19-13 and is back dancing after a one-year absence. Only two Baylor players have NCAA Tournament experience. Syracuse finished 20-13 and this will be coach Jim Boeheim’s 34th NCAA Tournament appearance. Syracuse sat out starting guard Tyus Battle in both ACC Tournament games as a precautionary measure because of a sore back, but he’s been returned to go at 100% health in this one. 

The pick: The Orange have held opponents to 40 percent shooting for the season and 32.3 percent from range. The Orange are also 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite in the -1 to -7 range, while Baylor is just 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA tournament contests. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The St. Francis Terriers had a 17-15 record overall, but they’d go 9-7 in league play and a share of the Northeast Championship (they average 71 points, led by 15.1 per game from Jalen Jordan.) Hampton was 9-7 in the Big South, but just 15-16 overall. Hampton is 10-3 at home this year and it averages 81.7 PPG.

The pick: The Pirates though aren’t nearly as good on the defensive side of things and I believe that leaves the door wide open for this under rated Terriers team. Take it for what you will as well, but St. Francis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing a game as road dog, while Hampton is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tournament games. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a defensive battle here. Northeastern won’t be going down without a fight today after finishing 23-10 this season. The Huskies have a starting five of upperclassmen, led by Vas Pusica and Jordan Roland. The Jayhawks have a lot to prove as well after their string of regular season conference champion finished this year after 15 seasons. Kansas had to deal with significant injuries (center Udoka Azubuike lost mid-season), but it still finished 25-9. The Jayhawks are stingy defensively and I think they’ll be able to make the adjustments to counter the Huskies three-point oriented offensive attack. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Northeastern has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 neutral court games, while Kansas has seen the total dip “under” in six of its last nine neutral site games. I’m expecting a slower-paced defensive battle. Play the “under.”

9* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Almost assuredly not. I’m not calling for one at all anyways. But I do believe the Bradley Braves come in under the radar here and I believe they can keep this one competitive late. MSU came from behind to knock off Michigan in the Big Ten title game and could easily be still caught up on that big come from behind victory. The Braves won’b be going down without a fight, as they return to The Big Dance for the first time since 2006. Bradley limits its opposition to 41.1 percent shooting and 32.8 percent from range. The Braves had a signature win over Penn State, 59-56 in the Cancun Challenge. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bradley is 11-6 ATS as an underdog this season and 5-0 ATS in all neutral court games, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.

10* play

The set-up: Auburn will be wary to avoid the 5-12 “matchup curse” here vs. a dangerous New Mexico State team. The Aggies finished 30-4 and they’re in the NCAA Tournament for a third straight year. New Mexico State has 11 upperclassmen who all see substantial playing time. Auburn is out to prove that it’s SEC Championship victory was no fluke (84-64 destruction of Tennessee). It’ll be out to push the pace in the first half, and that’s exactly what I’m getting down on this “first half” selection. 

The pick: Despite all of their success this year, I’ll point out that the Aggies have made 11 straight opening-round exits in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 1999 and I believe they make the most of it. Get down early and play Auburn in the first half.

9* play

The set-up: Seattle won 9-7 in the 2019 season opener in Japan early yesterday morning. Domingo Santa delivered a grand slam in the victory. Both teams bats looked great, including the A’s Khris Davis, who led MLB with 48 home runs last year, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty who all went yard, and the Mariners got balanced hitting from Tim Beckham and newcomer Edwin Encarnacion, who scored twice.

The pitchers: Mariners go with LHP Yusei Kikuchi, as the 27 year old makes his MLB debut in his home country. 

The A’s hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who steadily declined with the Blue Jays over the last three years before posting a career worst 7-14, 5.64 ERA record. The 35 year old isn’t getting any younger, as he had difficulties with his hip and back all year in 2018.

The pick: I think these starters get chased early and I look for these hard-hitting offense to put a plethora of points on the board once it’s all said and done. Play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Clearly the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a tight battle. Despite backing its way down the stretch, ASU has now made back-to-back NCAA Tourney appearances for the first time since the early 80’s. If recent history is any precedence, then the Sun Devils have to be loving their chances today as well as they’d meet the Red Storm in LA last year and beat them 82-70. This is St. John’s first winning season for Chris Mullin since he took over four years ago. St. John’s got out to a quick start in non-conference play and despite a shot in The Big Dance, the team has failed to live up to expectations as far as many are concerned. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. John’s is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 neutral sit games, while ASU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Lay the short points, play on Arizona State.

10* play

The set-up: Houston destroyed the lowly Hawks 121-105 last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well as it looks to gain ground in the competitive West as the season winds down. Overall the Rockets average 112.9 PPG and they allow 109.9. The Grizzlies had a stretch of decency about a month ago, but they’ve predictably started to stumble again, coming into this one having lost two straight. Memphis averages a league-worst 102.1 PPG, while allowing 104.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back after scoring 120 or more points in a victory in the first, while Memphis is only 6-7 ATS this year when playing with triple revenge vs. an opponent (three straight losses in the series.) This is a bad matchup for Memphis. Houston will look to put the foot on the gas early here and try to go up big at half. This is a play on Houston in the first half.

9* play

The set-up: Let’s face it, it wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for this total to “over” or “under” the number. Both teams possess some of the most dangerous offensive talent on the planet. But each side also sports some of the best goaltending in the league as well. These are two of the top teams in the East and Tampa just beat the Capitals 6-3 at home last week in a “barn burner.” Suffice it to say, with the shift in venue, I’m expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it gave up six or more goals in and in which it lost by two or more goals in. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: The Clippers come in off a last second win over the Nets on Sunday, while the Pacers come in off a listless 106-98 setback in Portland just last night. Indiana looked decent defensively in last night’s loss, but the continued absence of offensive star Victor Oladipo is clearly starting to take its toll on the offensive side of things. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after scoring 100 points or less in a loss in the first game of a back-to-back scenario, while LA has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five vs. teams with winning SU records. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Temple lost 80-74 in the quarterfinals of the ACC to Wichita State on Friday, while Belmont lost 77-65 to Murray State in the title game of the OVC Tournament back on March 9th. These teams have never played against each other. The Owls average 74.8 PPG and they allow 71.2. The Bruins average a whopping 87.4 PPG, while allowing just 73.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while the Owls are only 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I think Belmont’s high-octane offense turns out to be the difference in this one. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Florida comes to Dallas off a 3-2 road loss to the Ducks, while the Stars lost 3-2 in a shootout to Vancouver at home on Sunday. This is the second time these teams have played and Dallas won the first matchup 3-0 on the road back on February 12th. I believe we’ll see a similar final outcome here as well. Florida looks poised for a letdown after its four game win streak was snapped last time out. The Stars won’t be taking anything for granted after two straight losses though (after winning six of their previous seven. Florida averages 3.21 GPG and it allows 3.28, while Dallas averages 2.51 goals and it allows 2.46. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Florida is just 2-7 in its last nine in the third game of a “3-in-4” situation, while Dallas is 5-1 in its last six after scoring two goals or less in its previous outing. I think home ice plays a big part here as well. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: The winner of this will move on to meet No. 1 Gonzaga. I’m expecting a defensive affair. Prairie Vie A&M comes in off a win over Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament title game on Saturday, while Farleigh Dickinson won 85-76 over Saint Francis in the NEC Tournament title game. The Panthers average 75 PPG and they allow 72.5. The Knights average 75.4 PPG and they allow only 71.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Farleigh Dickinson has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten off a win vs. a conference rival, while Prairie View has seen the total go “under” in three of four this season after allowing 85 points or more. This number is high, play the “under.”

8* play

The set-up: The Warriors got blown out at home by the Celtics and since then they’ve won two straight over Houston and OKC. That setback to Boston was a wake up call for the defending champs and I think they carry that momentum over here as they look to send a third straight message to the top teams in the West. Golden State in fact destroyed the Thunder 110-88 on Saturday: “Everybody’s been locked in,” forward Draymond Green assured. “You see a different fire in the coaching staff, a different focus in their eyes. You see a different focus and fire in our players’ eyes, and that’s important. The training staff’s been locked in, like everybody’s been locked in since that loss. It comes at a good time for us, I think we got 13 or 14 games left, it’s the right time to start playing well and try to roll on into the playoffs feeling good.” No better team to go against than the Spurs, who have won eight straight games. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when playing on one days rest, while the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. tams with a winning home record. Lay the short points and expect a blowout.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams were in action yesterday, making home ice a major advantage in my opinion at this time of year. This is a great price all things considered. the Isles come in off an exhausting 2-1 loss in Detroit yesterday afternoon, while the Wild cruised to a simple 5-2 win over the Rangers. The Isles have been great on the road all season, but I think they’re running out of gas. Minnesota can’t take the foot off the gas as it’s in a dog fight for one of the wild card spots. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York just 2-5 in its last in the second game of a back to back in which it lost and scored one goal or less in the first one, while Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight home games following a win by two or more goals. Lay the price.

9* play

The set-up: Buffalo comes in off a tiring 4-2 loss at Carolina last night and I think it’ll have a difficult time mustering much of an offensive attack against the Blues’ stifling defense. St. Louis cruised to an easy 5-1 win over Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon and I believe it carries that momentum over here as well. The Sabres have in fact lost seven straight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 8-2 in its last ten vs. tams with losing records. The Blues have won 20 of the last 23 in this series and have everything to play for here. The Sabres on the other hand are simply going through the motions at this point. I’m laying the price and expecting a blowout. 

10* play

The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a 123-114 home win over the Kings on Friday, while the Bucks posted a 113-98 road win at Miami the same night. Philadelphia plays with revenge here today after falling 123-108 here back on October 24th. The 76ers in fact have won three straight and they come in averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 111.5. The Bucks have won two straight and they average 117.6 points, while allowing 108.3. 

The pick: With Joel Embiid back in the mix, the 76ers are once again rolling. They play with the added incentive of revenge today and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 70-51 ATS in its last 121 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 100 points or more in, while Milwaukee is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

10* play

The set-up: Texas Arlington is off a 67-58 win over Georgia Southern, while Georgia State won 59-46 over Texas State to advance. The Panthers won both regular season meetings over the Mavericks. Each team comes in off a lower-scoring victory and I’m expecting a similar battle here as well. The Mavericks held the Eagles to just 36.7 percent shooting last tie out. UTA needed its defense to step up though, as the offense connected on just 39.7 percent of its chances in the victory. Overall UTA has averaged 69.4 PPG and allowed 69.7. Georgia State averages 77.2 PG and it allows 73.2. During league play though the Panthers have averaged 76.5 PPG and they allow 72.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UTA has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game, while Georgia State has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 11 after allowing 48 points or less in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Auburn enters the SEC Tournament final on a seven-game win streak. Most recently the Tigers beat Florida 65-62 yesterday, going 13 of 28 from range. Note though that Tennessee plays with revenge here after it fell 84-80 at Auburn on March 9th in the regular season finale. The Vols come in off an impressive 82-78 win over favored Kentucky and I think they carry that momentum over here. And with a win today, the Vols will punch their ticket to a No. 1 seed in the upcoming Tournament. 

The pick: Auburn plays its fourth game in four days and I believe it comes out flat and tired here. Look for the up-tempo Vols to push the pace, to avenge the regular season finale loss, to earn the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tourney and to be crowned the SEC Tournament winner. Lay the points.

9* play

The set-up: Both teams come in off games just last night. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans and I think they’ll have a difficult time mustering up the same energy levels here in this difficult road venue. The Spurs barely broke a sweat though in their 109-83 home win over the Knicks and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 at home and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 teams with winning percentage over .600, while Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back and only 3-9 ATS In its last 12 games played in San Antonio. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is the Conference USA Tournament Final from the Ford Center in Texas. ODU got past Louisiana Tech and UAB, while WKU got the better of UNT and Southern Miss. Both teams have plenty of momentum, but ODU is a difficult matchup for WKU, especially Players Of The Year in BJ Stith, who had ten points and ten boards in his teams 57-56 win over Louisiana Tech. 

The pick: These teams have played twice this year, and ODU is 2-0, winning by a combined seven points. However note that WKU is 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while ODU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU victories. Third time isn’t a charm for WKU. Play on Old Dominion.

9* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a battle until the bitter end the ACC Tournament Title game. Duke avenged a regular season loss to UNC with a thrilling 74-73 victory last night and I think it’s poised for a letdown here. The Seminoles on the other hand were clinical in their 69-59 dismantling of No. 1 seeded Virginia. Note that this is a revenue game as well for FSU, after Duke hit a 3-pointer at the Buzzer to win 80-78 on January 12th (Cam Reddish.) It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of FSU today in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Duke is just 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. schools with winning records. I think FSU’s length and depth once again gives its opponent everything it can handle tonight. Grab the points.

10* play on Florida State

The set-up: This is a big game. The Lightning are out to prove their the best team in the league this year and they can prove that with a resounding victory over the defending champs. But clearly Washington won’t be going down without a fight. The Capitals have been great since the All Star break. Washington averages 3.39 goals and it allows 3.07. The Lightning average 3.82 goals and they allow 2.62. 

The pick: Washington is 15-9 (+3.4 units) this year after a win by two goals or more and in a game which I expect to be decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the Capitals on the puck line.

10* play

The set-up: Wisconsin finished 22-9 and MSU was 25-6. Michigan State was never in any real danger in its 77-70 win over Ohio State yesterday, however it did not cover the 12.5 points spread. Wisconsin though comes in dog tired here after its 66-62 win over Nebraska on Friday. The Spartans handled the Badgers 67-59 on the road in mid February and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Overall Wisconsin is averaging 69.6 PPG, while allowing 61.2. MSU averages 79.6 PPG and it allows 66. 

The pick: This is a bad matchup for Happ and the Badgers. Take it for what you will as well, but Wisconsin is still just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 revenging a loss where the team score less than 60 points in, while MSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less. Lay the points.

9* play

The set-up: Florida upset LSU 76-73 last night to advance to the semi-final of the SEC. The Gators have now punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Fatigue becomes a factor for both teams at this point though and I believe this will effect the overall scoring pace this afternoon. The Gators are out to avenge a 76-62 loss at Auburn in the lone meeting between the schools this year. Auburn beat Missouri to advance, getting five 3-pointers from Bryce Brown. While Florida struggled from the perimeter defense in the first meeting, the Gators have come a long way since then. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Auburn has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten neutral site games and in seven of its last ten when playing the role of favorite, while Florida has seen the total go “under” in six of its last seven neutral site games. I’m expecting a war and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done.

9* play

The set-up: Chicago has lost three straight, including a setback at home to the Lakers most recently. Robin Lopez was a standout with 20 points, seven boards and three assists in a losing cause. Zach Lavine didn’t play in that game, but he’s probable here. The Bulls have been competitive over the last month though and for a ten game stretch recently were the highest scoring team in the league. The Clippers’ five-game win streak was snapped with a loss to the Blazers last time out and I think they’re susceptible for another letdown here as well facing their lowly non-conference opponent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is already 7-3 ATS this year off a home loss by ten points or more, while LA is already 0-3 ATS this season off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Devils had lost seven games in a row before gutting out a victory at lowly Edmonton in the second game of a back-to-back on Wednesday and suffice it to say, I think an immediate return to mediocrity is in store here at the end of its difficult Western road trip. Vancouver had lost five of six before a 4-1 win over the Rangers on Wednesday. But I simply can’t understate how important I think that home ice will be in this particular matchup. 

The pick: As note that New Jersey is just 20-45 in its last 65 on the road and only 2-7 in its last nine vs. the Western Conference, while Vancouver is 5-0 in its last five home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage under .400. All things considered, a great price in my opinion. Play on the Canucks.

6* play

The set-up: Carolina has won back-to-back games, but it’s been off since a 3-0 win at Colorado on Monday and I think it’ll stumble in this difficult road arena. The Jackets enter off a 7-4 win over the Bruins. This is an important game for both teams as they look to keep pace in the Wildcard race. However, I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor between these evenly matched clubs.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is already only 3-5 (-4.1 units) this season when playing with three or more days rest, while Columbus is 37-20 (+9.2 units) in its last 57 when playing with two days rest and 16-10 (+2.1 units) after allowing four or more goals in its previous outing. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: It’s going to be a war to the end in my opinion here between FSU and Virginia with a trip to the Conference Tourney Final on the line. Both teams earned double-byes and each won their opener. Both teams have won 13 of their last 14. Virginia has the better defense, but FSU has the better offense. FSU plays with revenge here though after a 65-52 loss to Virginia on January 5th. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five a a neutral court favorite in the +8 to +10 range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: LSU won’t have coach Will Wade on the sidelines Friday because he’s suspended, but I still think the Tigers can take care of a tired Gators team, which enters off a hard-fought 66-50 win over Arkansas just last night. Note though that Florida is a terrible 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams. And guess what? The Gators one win was an upset 82-77 OT victory over a then No. 13 LSU. It’s payback time! The Tigers come in in on top form as well, winning the SEC regular-season title outright with an 80-59 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS win, while Florida is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a SU win. I like LSU to respond with a resounding victory here. Lay the points.

10* play on LSU

The set-up: I think the visitors could/should in fact be much larger favs here. The Predators come in off a 3-2 loss to the suddenly surging Ducks, while LA posted a 3-2 road win over Anaheim. If recent history is any precedence, then the Preds have to be loving their chances today as they’ve already taken both meetings with the Kings this season. Nashville averages 2.9 goals and it allows 2.7. Predators’ goaltender Pekka Rinne has a 2.54 GAA to this point. LA is just 13-17-2 at home this year. The Kings average 2.3 goals and the allow 3.2. Goalie Jon Quick has a terrible 3.28 GAA this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 1-6 in its last seven at home, while the Predators are 4-1 in their last five when playing on one days rest. I think Rinne out duels Quick. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams hungry for victories collide here. Toronto would love nothing more than to “show up” King James after taking so many beatdowns when he played for the Cavaliers over the years. The Lakers are off a big win over the Bulls on the road and they won’t be going down without a fight here either. With Toronto looking to embarrass James and run up the score, and with the visitors needing to match pace, I do indeed think that from an overall situational stand point, that this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but LA has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten or more points, while Toronto has seen the total fly over in three of its last four off a road loss by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the “over.”

8* play

The set-up: Alabama needs a victory to keep its NCAA Tourney hopes alive, but even that big motivational factor won’t be enough here in my opinion. Alabama is the No. 10 seed and it finished 8-10 in league play, losing six of eight down the stretch. Over a three-game losing streak to end the year it’s averaged 15.7 turnovers. Ole Miss also needs a victory here to cement is NCAA spot. Kermit Davis is in his first season as coach and he ended the regular season with a much needed 73-68 victory to snap a three-game slide. From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one favors Ole Miss, as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the conference and 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s a quick turn-around from day-to-day during the Confernece tournaments. Virginia Tech took advantage of a tired Miami team, which pulled out a victory the day before to advance. Now the Seminoles look to return the favor here in the third round of the ACC. FSU has a huge advantage here with the “double bye” and I believe it’ll be more than enough to turn the tide in favor of the Seminoles today. Note that FSU posted a 73-64 OT win over the Hokies at home ten days ago.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Play on the Seminoles.

10* play

The set-up: The Grizzlies beat the Magic 105-97 at home on Sunday, but I think they’ll struggle on the road in this non-conference East coast matchup. The Hawks have been playing better of late and they’ll be looking to take advantage here and to build off their 128-116 home win over New Orleans on Sunday. Note that this is also a “revenge” game for Atlanta, after it fell 131-117 on the road in the first matchup back on October 19th. After three straight victories, I think the Grizz stumble in their first game on the road. The Hawks broke a three-game slide with their last win and they’re out for revenge as well here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is still just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Atlanta is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 non-conference contests. I think Atlanta is the correct call. 

10* play

The set-up: Two teams which push the pace from the opening face off until the final horn collide on Wednesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that goals will be plentiful. The Hawks come in off a 7-1 home win over Arizona, while the Leafs enter off a 6-2 home loss to Tampa. Chicago still has a shot at the postseason, so expect it to continue to push its frantic pace here. Barring a major disaster Toronto will be firmly in the playoffs as well, but after its lacklustre performance last time out, I’m expecting a much more concerted effort here. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as a high-scoring “shootout.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Chicago has seen the total go “over” the number in 19 of 24 this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous game, while Toronto has seen the total go “over” in 14 of 20 this season following a divisional contest. This number is low, play the “over.”

5* play

The set-up: These are two terrible teams, but I think Georgia is worse. The Bulldogs finished 11-20. Georgia lost its final two games of the regular season, posting a combined 85 points of offense on 25.8 percent shooting in those defeats. The “revenge factor” is always something I take into account, but sometimes it can be an over-rated angle. And that’s the case here I think. Missouri destroyed Georgia 64-39 in Athens just last week and I’m expecting a similar sort of beatdown here once it’s all said and done.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight vs. sub .500 teams and 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 neural site affairs, while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 50 points or less in its previous contest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: It’s round two of the ACC. Miami comes in off a high-scoring victory over Wake Forest just last night. The Hurricanes are better on the defensive end of things and the last thing they’ll want to do is to turn this one into a “track meet” with the rested Hokies. VT enters after an opening bye by finishing 12-6 in conference play. VT beat Miami Florida 84-70 to finish the regular season just last week, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair this time around in my opinion. From a situational stand point, everything definitely points to the lower number as the correct call. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Miami has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of its last 16 neural site games, while VT has seen the total dip “under” in seven of its last ten after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.”

6* play

The set-up: This is a big game, as many believe the winner will then punch its ticket to the Big Dance. Both teams went 9-9 in conference play. The victor of this one will also go on to face Virginia in Thursday’s ACC semi-final. Clemson comes in having won two straight and four of its last five, but NC State has to be feeling confident here after taking the first game vs. the Tigers 69-67 at home back on January 26th. NC State destroyed Boston College 73-47 last weekend, posting its best defensive performance of the entire season. I think the Tigers are in trouble here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court games this year and only 5-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while the Wolfpack are 2-0 ATS in all neutral court games this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. Play on NC State.

9* play

The set-up: The Blazers broke a two-game slide by knocking off the red hot Suns in their last game, while the Clippers come in off a highly satisfying victory at home over the Celtics just last night. LA has now won five straight, but at this time of year, playing the second game of a back-to-back is significant. And I think it’s going to be the difference maker here, as I look for the slightly more rested Blazers to have more energy. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while LA is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home dog and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. I look for Blazers to take advantage. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: These teams enter off poor campaigns. The Demon Deacons were 4-14 in ACC action, while Miami finished 5-13 in conference play. Last year both teams were ousted from the Conference tournament after the first game, but this season one of the two will survive to see the next round. These teams played two games and they split those, with one going “over” and the other going “under.” But during Wake Forest’s three-game losing skid, its failed to score 60 points, most recently falling 65-57 to FSU. The Hurricanes closed out the regular season with an 84-70 loss to VT. Two inconsistent, yet hungry teams collide and I believe that this will help in resulting in a tighter, lower-scoring defensive battle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wake Forest has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 19 as an underdog, while Miami Florida has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 13 as a neutral court favorite or pick. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Saint Mary’s is on the bubble after its five game win streak ended in a season finale loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels are going to have to make it to the WCC finals if they want to make it to the big dance. The Toreros have been playing terrific, coming in having won four straight, but this has been a difficult matchup for them. In fact, the Gaels took both regular season meetings easily. I’m throwing the “double revenge” factor out the window here. This one doesn’t mean more to the Toreros than it does to the Gaels. San Diego has been playing well, but I think the “better” team comes out on top again. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 after having won three of its last four games, while St. Mary’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. With a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the final and to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, I look for the high-powered Gaels to once again blow the doors off the Toreros. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Edmonton has quietly been playing well over the last three weeks, going 6-2-2 in its last ten. New York has been horrible all year and it’s been struggling of late by going just 3-3-4 in its last ten. The Rangers are now out of wildcard contention, while the Oilers still have a slim hope. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the home side and it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Edmonton is 4-0 in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while New York is a horrible 8-22 in its last 30 after allowing two goals or less in its previous game. Lay the price, expect a blowout victory.

10* play

The set-up: These teams can still score a lot of points and this total can stay below this sky-high number, and that’s exactly what I expect to see. This number is just a tad high in my estimation. The Kings come in off a hard-fought 102-94 road win over New York, while Washington fell 135-130 in OT at Minnesota on Saturday. Note that these teams played in Sacramento on October 26th and the Kings posted the 116-112 victory. I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of 11 already this year as a road underdog of six points or less, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Plain old common sense is the basis to this particular selection. These teams played in Vegas last week and the Knights posted the 2-1 win. Calgary is now one game behind Nashville for the Central division lead, but the Predators lost last night, giving the Flames an opportunity to re-gain it. They also play with revenge. They also catch a Las Vegas side that enters off a highly satisfying 6-2 win in Vancouver just last night. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Las Vegas is just 10-14 (-8.4 units) this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous game, while Calgary is a money-making 19-12 (+4.5 units) revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: The Suns had been competitive over the last month, but they couldn’t continue that momentum in a 127-117 loss in Portland just last night. The Warriors have had some issues since the All Star game (like getting blown out at home to the Celtics recently), but it still comes in having won three of its last four. That included a blowout victory at home over the Nuggets most recently. But with mighty defending champs expected to rest starters tonight, I think the door is wide open for the young visiting side to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this season after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games, while Golden State is just 12-19 ATS as a home favorite this year. Too many points. Grab them.

9* play

The set-up: I think the Rockets, who come in having won seven straight, get caught looking past their lowly opponent tonight. The Mavericks though come in hungry as they look to break a four-game slide. Houston has been playing at an elite level for a while now and knocked off some big teams in the process (Warriors at Oracle to start the seven game streak and 76ers at home most recently.) All good things must come to an end though and while I’m not calling for the outright, I think the visitors do come in a bit complacent here. Dallas has been competitive and I expect it to go down fighting. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is a poor 6-13 ATS as a road favorite this year, while Dallas is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards. 

The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points.

10* play