The set-up: While neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is high. After the Marlins’ 19-11 slug-fest victory yesterday, I think the stage is set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Efin (7-11, 4.57 ERA) is 3-2 with a 4.37 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Marlins.

Yamamoto (4-4, 4.31) struck out a career-high nine batters over six innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday and he’s 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies this year. 

The pick: Note that Philly slugger Bryce Harper remains out of the line-up, as he’s expecting a new child. I think these hungry starters throw deep and I look for this total to indeed sneak under once it’s all said and done.

Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Sheffield United is unbeaten so far in the campaign, but I believe that string runs out here. The Foxes won’t be lacking for motivation here after only picking up two points through two games. Last weekend they drew with Chelsea 1-1 at Stamford Bridge. 

The pick: The Blades have so far proved the doubters wrong, but the step up vs. the Foxes, who won’t be taking anything for granted after back-to-back draws (and while that doesn’t look very impressive on paper, Leicester has been dominant in both matches in time of possession and I believe that finally works in its favor today. Great value on the “better/more experienced” club. 

Leicester City 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one, as I believe the massive talent discrepancy on the mound should make the visitors a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Lance Lynn, while the home side goes with Dylan Cease.

The pitchers: Lynn (14-8, 3.60 ERA) while 0-2 over his last two starts, Lynn sports a tiny 2.65 ERA in that span. 

Cease (2-6, 5.93) started off his career well enough, but he’s since gone 1-6 with a terrible 6.00 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Note that Lynn has dominated this matchup throughout his career as well, going 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Chi-Sox. Cease on the other hand has pitched past the fifth frame just twice in his last six starts. Lay the mid sized price and expect a blowout.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Texas Rangers.

The set-up: Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has his team 2-0 in the preseason after going 3-5 under his tenure over the previous two seasons. Matt Patricia is now just 1-4 in the preseason as head coach of the Lions after starting the season 0-2. With most of Detroit’s starting offense sitting this one, I have a hard time seeing the Lions getting much production tonight. Detroit starting QB Matthew Stafford is expected to see extreme limited time and the back-ups for the home side have so far struggled to find consistency (original backup Tom Savage is injured with concussion and David Fales and Josh Johnson have both been poor thus far.) 

The pick: Buffalo has gotten strong play from its QB’s (Josh Allen, Matt Barkley), but I’m expecting a more conservative game tonight from the visitors (keep your eyes on Buffalo RB’s Tyree Jackson, LeSean McCoy and TJ Yeldon. The stage is set for a defensive battle in my opinion, as I’m expecting this total to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the under Bills/Lions.

The set-up: The Mets have rolled to victory in the first two games of this series and I believe the home side will once again find a way to get the job done here in what shapes up to be another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The sliding AL visiting side hands the ball to Aaron Civale, while the NL home side counters with Noah Syndergaard.

The pitchers: Civale (1-2, 1.50 ERA) most recently allowed three runs off eight hits with two walks over six innings in a loss to the Yanks on Friday. Civale has been good in his limited time, but clearly he faces a difficult task in this difficult road venue tonight.

Syndergaard (8-6, 3.86) gave up two runs while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the Royals on Friday. It was his seventh quality start since the All Star break, a span in which he’s posted a 2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 50:12 K:BB over 48.1 frames. 

The pick: Cleveland’s “desperate,” but it continues to get shaky starting pitching and it’s line-up continues to struggle at the plate. And I don’t see those trends changing vs. the red hot Mets. All things considered, this is an awesome price. Lay it.

NY Mets 10* play

The set-up: Milwaukee is desperate, but the Cardinals’ momentum is for real right now in my opinion and i believe the home side executes the series sweep tonight. The visitors go with Adrian Houser, while the home side turns to veteran Adam Wainwright.

The pitchers: Houser (5-5, 3.76 ERA) enters off a song start vs. the Nationals on Friday, allowing just one run over seven innings. Note though that he’s 0-1 with a 6.53 ERA in three career appearances vs. St. Louis. 

Wainwright (9-8, 4.33) has to be feeling confident here as he’s 16-8 with a 2.33 ERA in 39 career appearances vs. Milwaukee. 

The pick: Note as well that Houser is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in 17 outings as a reliever this year and only 1-5 with a 5.28 ERA in ten starts. This is a great price. Lay it with confidence.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Cardinals.

The set-up: I think the surging Nationals come in focused on the task at hand and find a way to get the job done here in the end. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, while the home side goes with Joe Musgrove.

The pitchers: Corbin (9-5, 3.34 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Brewers on Friday, giving up one run off seven hits with eight K’s and four walks over six innings. He faced the Pirates once this season and dominated them, allowing one run over seven innings with 11 strikeouts. 

Musgrove (8-11, 4.59) gave up two runs over seven innings with nine strikeouts in a no-decision to the Cubs on Friday. Musgrove had lost three of his previous four.

The pick: Washington can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at this point and after yesterday’s 4-1 setback, I think the stage is now set for a quick response (previous to yesterday’s loss the Nats had scored 62 runs over five games.) Lay the price.

8* PITCHING BLOWOUT on Washington.

The set-up: Luis Castillo has looked shaky at times over the second half for the Reds, but I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank here to get the better of his erratic counterpart Matt Strahm. 

The pitchers: Strahm (5-8, 5.21 ERA) is back in the rotation after a stint in the pen and he’s just 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in all “day” games this season.

Castillo (11-5, 3.10) actually comes in off the worst start of his entire career, allowing eight runs in a 13-4 loss to the Cardinals. Castillo has to be feeling confident he can bounce back here though, as note that he’s still a sharp 7-4 with a 2.97 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is just 21-24 in “day” games this season, while Cincinnati is 16-10 in its last 26 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. I’m banking on Castillo bouncing back here. Great price.

8* DESTRUCTION on the Reds.

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams, despite not playing in the same League. The Indians though have a big advantage on the mound and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in the visitors favor tonight. Cleveland sees Shane Bieber take the hill, while the home side goes with Stephen Matz.

The pitchers: Bieber (12-5, 3.27 ERA) comes in off a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Wednesday, allowing two earned runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings. 

Matz (7-7, 4.33) who has looked better of late, but who is still only 5-5 with a 4.86 ERA in all “night” games. 

The pick: The Mets have been cursing of late, winning 18 of their last 23, but their schedule gets much tougher moving forward. Note that Bieber has allowed just eight earned runs over his last 38 innings while posting a 44:5 K:BB in that span. Matz has been better at home than on the road this season, but I still think he’s in over his head in this one. Lay the price.

10* DESTRUCTION

The set-up: While Ivan Nova hasn’t had a great overall season for the White Sox, he’s been a bit better of late. Kyle Gibson though is a big reason why his team will be in the postseason this year. Admittedly neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but I still believe this number is high.

The pitchers: Nova (8-9, 4.51 ERA) has actually won four of his last five stars and he enters off a 4-1 complete-game effort over the hard-hitting Astros on Tuesday, allowing four hits and one unearned run. Over his last two starts Nova has conceded nine hits, three walks and an unearned run. 

Gibson (11-5, 4.28) gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. 

The pick: Note that Nova is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Twins as well, while Gibson is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the White Sox. Expect these two hungry starters to battle deep.

10* TOTAL OF WEEK on under White Sox/Twins.

The set-up: This will be Denver’s third preseason game, as it played in the Hall of Fame Game as well. The Broncos lost four straight to end the regular season last year and they have high hopes with veteran QB Joe Flacco. Denver fell in Seattle last week and Flacco saw limited time in that one. He should see a bit more here, but the veteran will of course be saved for the official Week 3 preseason contest. 

The pick: San Francisco was just 4-12 in 2018 and it’ll be expecting big things from QB Jimmy Garappolo. But the 49ers’ defense was impressive in its Week 1, 17-9 win over the Cowboys. Backup San Fran QB CJ Beathard had a TD pass in the victory. With Denver’s starting defense seeing limited time, I believe Beathard is a difference maker in this one tonight. Grab as many points as you can.

10* COACH’S CLINIC on the San Francisco 49ers.

The set-up: Trevor Bauer threw a gem in his first start for his new team, but he was then blown up for one of his worst starts of his career last time out. Erik Lauer has had an up and down season for the Padres as well and he’s been especially poor on the road. I think that Bauer can bounce back here and I believe that Lauer’s road issues continue in this difficult venue.

The pitchers: Lauer (6-8, 4.55 ERA) gave up three runs to the Rays on Tuesday and overall he’s just 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA on the road.

Bauer (10-9, 4.12) gave up nine runs over four innings in a 17-7 blowout loss to the Nationals in his last start. 

The pick: This is a big game for the Reds, who come in having lost six of their last eight. San Diego is still without the services of slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. as well, still sidelined with injury. After back-to-back poor outings, I believe that Bauer gets back on track at home. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: The Vikes rolled to a big 34-25 road victory in New Orleans, but I believe they’ll have a much more difficult time here vs. the hard-hitting Seahawks. Seattle enters off a 22-14 home win over Denver. Seattle was 10-6 in the regular season last year, but 0-4 in the preseason. That included a 21-20 loss to these very Vikings. Can anyone say “revenge” spot? 

The pick: The Vikes offense looked great against a terrible Saints secondary, but Seattle used six of its 11 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball and it just held Denver to 291 total yards. Outright victory?! Very possible of course, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.

Seattle Seahawks 10* play

The set-up: Two competent starters go head-to-head in this one, but Zack Greinke has the advantage still in this matchup in my opinion. The home side counters with Brett Anderson. 

The pitchers: Greinke (11-4, 3.08 ERA) has put together back-to-back gems for his new team and he’s 6-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 16 appearances vs. the A’s, including 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA in ten games in Oakland.

Anderson (10-8, 3.95) is 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA in six games vs. Houston lifetime.

The pick: Oakland has taken the first three games of this four game set, which means that Greinke and company aren’t going to be lacking for motivation here. 

8* UPPER DECK CRUSHER on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: After dropping the opener of this interleague series in late innings, the Mets bounced back with a convincing 4-1 victory last night. I believe the playoff hopeful National League side will once again find a way to get the job done here with what I believe to be the clearly superior starting taking the hill for it. The Mets see Zach Wheeler toe the slab, while Glen Sparkman gets the nod for home side.

The pitchers: Wheeler (9-7, 4.36 ERA) comes in off a terrible start vs. the Braves, but overall he’s 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last four trips to the hill. 

Sparkman (3-8, 5.45) is 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA over his last five starts. 

The pick: The Mets have won 17 of their last 22 games, but before yesterday’s victory they’d lost four of five. With much “stiffer” competition on the immediate horizon, I believe New York makes the most of this matchup. The Royals have scored five runs total over their last five games and they’ve lost 12 of their last 16. Lay the price.

8* EARLY DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.

The set-up: I expect this one to go the distance in regulation and end in a draw. Sheffield had a dominant 2018/19 Championship season and it looked good in its first Premier League game last week vs. Bournemouth, holding the experienced club to a draw. It was a dramatic “draw” as well, with Sheffield drawing even at the 88th minute, breaking the hearts of the home town faithful. Crystal Palace is the much more experienced team, having played against the best in Europe over a regular basis. 

The pick: Crystal Palace has also won four of the last six head-to-head match ups in this series. I do think each club will find the back of the net, but this one has “war of attrition” written all over it.

Crystal Palace/Sheffield United DRAW 7* play

The set-up: Saint Etienne enjoyed a massive home pitch advantage last year, earning 41 of a possible 57 points, winning 13 games and losing only four. And note, three of its four losses were vs. clubs that finished above it in the standings (PSG, Lille and Lyon), as its form on the “lesser competition” was completely dominant. St. Etienne retains its core from last year and it started off the season with a convincing 2-1 win over Dijon. 

The pick: Brest is newly promoted. Brest had a great campaign in Ligue 2, but while it had the best home form in the league, its away form was just third best, picking up 31 points from 19 games. I think Brest struggles with its form in this difficult venue. Lay the price.

AS Saint Etienne 10* play

The set-up: I think this is a starting match-up on the mound that heavily favors the visitors. The Twins see Jose Berrios toe the slab, while the home side hands the ball to Ariel Jurado.

The pitchers: Berrios (10-6, 3.29 ERA) is 2-4 over his last 11 starts, but he enters off a decent outing, giving up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Sunday. 

Jurado (6-8, 5.31) enters off a 19-4 loss to the Jays on Monday, allowing 11 hits and eight runs over three innings. 

The pick: Minnesota’s won the first two games of this series, 13-6 on Thursday and 4-3 last night. Normally I would consider this a “letdown” spot, but with just a few weeks left in the regular season, the Twins lead over the Tribe is only 1.5 games. Expect the hard-hitting visiting side to keep the foot on the gas.

Minnesota Twins 10* play

The set-up: These clubs have been practicing against each other all week and I believe that’s going to lead to some heated rivalry in this Week 2 action. Detroit got humiliated at home in Week 1 by the Patriots and they’ll be out to atone for that performance. Especially on the defensive side. In all the Lions offense mustered just a field goal in last week’s loss and I think the unit will have a difficult time moving the chains this weekend as well. Since Matt Patricia took charge in Detroit the Lions are now just 1-4 SU/ATS. Once again starting QB Matt Stafford is expected to see limited to no tie in this one. Houston lost in Green Bay last week. The Texans will be amped up here to play their first game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Houston won’t be playing much (if any) of starting QB DeShaun Watson today either. The Texans are down to third string QB right now after AJ McCarron went down with a thumb injury. This one has “chess match” written all over it.

Detroit Lions/Houston Texans UNDER 10* play

The set-up: After a slow start, the Stampeders can ill afford to take the foot off the gas for the rest of the season. Calgary is in the playoff mix and I think it’ll pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. A victory today and the Stamps are in a tie for first place in the division, but a loss and they could wind up all the way in fourth. Note that while covering only once in four games at home this year, Calgary is still 3-1 SU. And despite the Als being 9-2 ATS in their last 11, I definitely believe that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: The Alouettes are getting QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback this week, but one has to wonder how effective they’ll be after each sat out last weekend with injury? The Stamps have finally adjusted to QB Nick Arbuckle running the show, entering this one having gone 4-2 SU in their last six. I’m banking on Montreal finally taking a step back here vs. this determined home side. Lay the points.

Calgary Stampeders 10* play

The set-up: EPL defending champ Man City took care of business in a 5-0 win over West Ham in east London last weekend, instantly pushing them to top spot on the board. Clearly Manchester City will want to keep the foot on the gas here and its place in the rankings. Tottenham came out slow last week, but a late marker by Harry Kane would guide the home team to a 3-1 win over Aston Villa in the end. 

The pick: The Spurs have their work cut out for them here at the Etihad and certainly “sitting back” and waiting for the game to come to them isn’t a strategy that’s going to work vs. Man City, who didn’t even break a sweat vs. the new look Hammers last weekend. With both teams pushing the pace, this one flies over sooner than later in my opinion.

Tottenham/Man City OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think the Bills are going to “go through the motions” in this difficult road venue. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott’s team was just 6-10 last year and the Bills are 4-5 in the pre-season under his direction. Carolina was just 7-9 under Ron Rivera last season, but overall he’s 19-14 in the preseason. 

The pick: The Bills already have a solid 24-16 home win under their belts vs. the Colts last Thursday anyways. The Panthers scored the 23-13 win in Chicago last Thursday, but I don’t think they’ll take the foot off on the gas in this home field situation (rookie defender Brian Burns had two sacks). I think Buffalo packs up its tents early; play the home side on the money-line.

Carolina Panthers, Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: While neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, I definitely think that Andrew Heaney and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup vs. the White Sox volatile starter Reynaldo Lopez.

The pitchers: Lopez (7-9, 5.16 ERA) has admittedly looked better over the last few weeks and he arguably comes in off his best start of the year after holding the A’s scoreless over six innings. I’ll point out though that Lopez has been a train wreck on the road all year, going just 3-4 with a 5.81 ERA. 

Heaney (1-3, 4.89) returned from the IL and looked great in his first start back, giving up one run over four innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox.

The pick: After upsetting the Astros by taking two of three, including a 13-9 win on Wednesday, I believe the White Sox take a predicable step back here (note as well that Heaney is 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA in three career match ups with Chicago.) Lay the price with confidence. 

LA Angels 9* play

The set-up: Do I think either of these clubs is going to do well in the regular season? I don’t. But this is preseason Week 2, so none of that matters anyways. Washington backup QB Dwayne Haskins threw two INT’s in his team’s Week 1 loss to the Browns, but I think he’ll settle down here after getting that awkward game behind him. The Bengals have plenty of issues as well heading into the new year. New system and new faces and having to adjust without star WR AJ Green for a few months. 

The pick: Note that this is a short week for Bengals, who played last Saturday night. I think Washington takes this home game seriously. Lay the price on the money line.

Washington Redskins Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: Two hungry teams face off against two hungry starters and in my opinion, it’s going to be these capable hurlers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side goes with Julio Teheran.

The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 3.20 ERA) has faced the Braves twice and he’s gone 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs and struck out nine over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday.

Teheran (7-7, 3.35) enters on top form, going 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Atlanta has won the first two games of this series and all signs point to a battle in the finale as well. This number is high, play the under.

Atlanta Braves/NY Mets UNDER 10* play

The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Cubs last night, but I like the visitors to respond on Thursday to avoid the series sweep. Chicago hands the ball to Yu Darvish, while the home side goes with Drew Smyly.

The pitchers: Darvish (4-6, 4.43 ERA) comes in off a shaky outing vs. the Reds, allowing four runs over seven innings, but overall he’s been solid of late, posing 53 K’s over his last 41 2/3’s innings of work. 

Smyly (2-6, 6.96) is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in four starts for the Phillies and this’ll be the first time he’s ever faced the Cubs in his six year career. 

The pick: Note that Philadelphia’s back-to-back wins to open this series are its first back-to-back victories since July 28th-30th. I like the “hungrier” team to get the job done at the end of the night.

Chicago Cubs 10* play

The set-up: This is an interesting Week 2 preseason matchup, as it pits Jacksonville’s newly acquired QB Nick Foles vs. his former team in which he won a Super Bowl with and was named the MVP in 2018. Foles is only expected to see limited time today, as is Eagles’ starter Carson Wentz, but there’s still going to be a very competitive atmosphere surrounding this contest. And in my opinion, that’s going to lead to this one to be more of a high-scoring “shootout” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” 

The pick: The Jaguars went through the motions in their 29-0 Week 1 loss in Baltimore, electing to sit out 30 players in that one. Jacksonville’s full compliment is expected to see action at some point today thug, so look for the home side offense to be much better this time around. When you add it all up, I do indeed feel that this number is a little low.

Jacksonville Jags/Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10* play

The set-up: Trevor Bauer has gotten out to a decent start for his new team, but I think he’s in over his head in the Nation’s capital vs. Washington ace Stephen Strasburg. All things considered, I feel this is an extremely good price.

The pitchers: Bauer (10-8, 3.74 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Friday. 

Strasburg (14-5, 3.72) most recently allowed three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Mets last week. Overall he’s 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA in nine career starts vs. Cincinnati. 

The pick: Washington won 3-1 yesterday, which was its sixth win in its last eighth. The Nationals got a bit boost to their line-up yesterday with Juan Soto and Brian Dozier, who each smacked a solo home run. I think Bauer takes a small step back in this difficult road venue. Lay the price.

Washington Nationals 10* play

The set-up: Pittsburgh pulled off the upset last night after the Angels returned home from a 2-5 road trip, but I think the home side will bounce back in quick order on Tuesday. The Pirates turn to Trevor Williams, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. 

The pitchers: Williams (4-5, 5.06 ERA) most recently was shelled for six runs off eight hits over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday (overall Williams is just 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA over his past five outings.) 

Canning (4-6, 4.76) returns from a short stint on the IL, but previous to that he held the Tigers scoreless over seven frames on July 30th. 

The pick: Last night’s win was just the Pirates fifth in their last 29 games. Expect the now desperate home side to come in focused and to take advantage of this clear mismatch on the mound. Lay the price.

LA Angels 10* play

The set-up: Considering the talent level between the starting pitchers this evening, I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. Boston goes with ace Chris Sale, while Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger. 

The pitchers: Sale (6-11, 4.41 ERA) enters on top form, having struck out 13 over eight scoreless in a win over the Angels on Thursday. 

Clevinger (7-2, 3.02) most recently allowed two runs over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Twins on Thursday.

The pick: Boston will essentially have to run the table now at any shot of defending its crown. One game at a time I guess. But after last night’s 6-5 Indians win, I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a “duel” this evening. This number is a little high. 

Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Cincinnati lost 6-3 to the Reds on Sunday afternoon, while Washington pulled away for a 7-4 victory at the Mets. For a number of different reasons though, I think that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani, while the home side goes with Erik Fedde.

The pitchers: DeSclafani (7-6, 4.20 ERA) gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. Previous to that start though he’d allowed three or fewer earned runs over a seven outing stretch (note that he’s a solid 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA in all night games.) 

Fedde (2-2, 4.20) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Giants last Monday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here, going six scoreless vs. the Giants. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between 10 and 10.5, while the Nationals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten home games when the total falls in the same range. This number is high.

Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals UNDER 10* play

The set-up: This is the first game of a double-header and I believe that the home side is going to lay the hammer down in the first game after leaving Toronto with a 1-0 victory yesterday afternoon. Baltimore earned an 8-7 win in Houston on Sunday, but previous to that had been outscored 58-16 during a five-game slide. The home side hands the ball to James Paxton, while the visitors go with Gabriel Ynoa.

The pitchers: Ynoa (1-6, 5.57) is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA as a starter.

Paxton (7-6, 4.40) enters having gone 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA over his last two starts. Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six career outings vs. Baltimore.

The pick: New York is 13-2 in this season series, hitting 52 home runs and scoring 118 runs, while collectively hitting .301 and posting a 1.028 OPS. The Yanks hit 16 homers in sweeping all three games vs. the Orioles in Baltimore last weekend and all signs point to another blowout early on Monday. Lay the 1.5 runs.

The set-up: This is the rubber match of a three-game series and I believe that because of the level of competency on the mound between the starting pitchers tonight, that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito. 

The pitchers: Bassitt (7-5, 3.80 ERA) has posted back-to-back quality starts, but has earned a no-decision each time for his effort. Clearly Bassitt won’t be lacking for motivation here. 

Giolito (12-5, 3.44) snapped a five start winless skid with a quality start and victory over Detroit on Monday. 

The pick: Note that in three career starts vs. the White Sox, Bassitt has walked five and struck out 15 spanning 17 innings. Giolito earned a win over the A’s in his only start vs. them, allowing four runs over eight innings. With each of these competent hurlers fighting deep into the latter frames, look for this total to stay well below the posted number. 

Oakland A's/Chi White Sox UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Newcastle United should be better this year than last, but I still think they’re completely overclasses here. True Arsenal has been poor on the road and the Magpies have five new signings, but the visitors depth is the difference here. The Gunners were busy in the transfer market as well, spending 72 million Euros for Nicolas Pepe. 

The pick: Arsenal has won 12 of the last 13 matches vs. Newcastle United and I think the Magpies will once again struggle with chemistry to open the new season. Newcastle’s new boss Steve Bruce draws a difficult opponent out of the gate. Arsenal has a lot to prove this year, but I think it’ll have more than enough firepower up front to win the day in regulation.

Arsenal 10* play

The set-up: Dallas hasn’t put a lot of stock into the preseason (0-6 in its last six Week 1 contests). That includes a 24-21 loss to San Francisco in Week of the preseason last year. The 49ers turn to backup QB’s Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard, who will be in a fight for the No. 2 spot with Jimmy Garoppolo returning shortly. Mullens comes in with plenty of confidence after leading the way for the 49ers last year with 2,277 passing yards and a 90.8 passer rating. The Cowboys won’t have Dak Prescott or Ezekiel Elliot on the field of play today. Cooper Rush and Mike White will be splitting time under center for the visitors. 

The pick: As mentioned above, Jason Garrett simply doesn’t put much emphasis on the preseason as evidenced by the Cowboys winless 2018 preseason, scoring 13 points or fewer in three of the four games (note that San Fran has NEVER scored fewer than 13 points in eight preseason games under its head coach Shanahan.) This one has “blowout” written all over it; play on the home side money line.

San Francisco 49ers  10* play

The set-up: These teams last played on October 21st, 2018 and they’d finish in a 0-0 draw. The Earthquakes held possession for 59 percent of that contest and had 20 attempts on goal with four shots on target. The Rapids on the other hand had only six shots on goal and two on target. 

The pick: Based on recent form, San Jose offers great value at this price, going 4-1-1 in its last six, while Colorado is just 2-3-1 in its last six. Look for San Jose’s superior attack up front to prove to be too much for Colorado in regulation.

San Jose Earthquakes (vs. Colorado Rapids)

10* play

The set-up: Mike Soroka is putting together a fantastic rookie campaign for the Braves, as he’s played a big part in the team’s success this year. Sandy Alcantara has been more “miss” than “hit” for the Fish this season and I believe he’ll have his hands full here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. When you add it all up, I believe this number is a little low. 

The pitchers: Soroka (10-2, 2.45 ERA) most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Monday. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Soroka, other than his low strikeout numbers (97 K’s in 121 frames).

Alcantara (4-10, 4.50) enters off a decent start vs. the Mets on Monday, allowing two runs over five innings in a no-decision. Despite the effort though, note that Alcantara still has a poor 7.21 ERA since the All-Star break. 

The pick: Also note that Alcantara is just 2-8 with a 5.94 ERA in all “night” games this year. Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten National League road games with a total set at either 8 or 8.5 and as a -125 to -175 favorite. Everything points to a “slug-fest.” 

Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: Both teams have gone through significant changes in the off-season. Tampa Bay has a new coach in Bruce Arians. The Steelers move forward without RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. I’ll point out though that the Bucs haven’t finished a preseason above .500 since going 3-1 in 2008, while Pittsburgh hasn’t lost a preseason since going 1-3 in 2016. 

The pick: The Bucs were just 5-11 last year, while Pittsburgh was a subpar 9-6-1 (for its lofty standards year in and year out.) With both team’s backup’s seeing the majority of time today, I think the advantage falls to the home side, who rides the wave of emotion. The Steelers compete in the preseason and I expect that trend to continue to open 2019. Lay the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers 8* play

The set-up: With no room to take the foot off the gas, I believe the Braves make the most of this opportunity. Atlanta turns to red hot veteran Julio Teheran, while the home side goes with Caleb Smith.

The pitchers: Teheran (6-7, 3.46 ERA) most recently allowed three runs with five K’s over five innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Sunday. Teheran hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since May 26th. 

Smith (7-5, 3.35) most recently allowed three runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Overall Smith has been sharp this season, but I believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is a near-perfect 12-1 (+10.8 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is just 8-21 (-9.1 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Braves.

The set-up: Neither of these starting pitchers instills any confidence whatsoever. The Angels hand the ball to Jaime Barria, while the home side goes with Brian Johnson. I can’t understate how important I believe the home field advantage to be in this particular matchup. 

The pitchers: Barria (4-5, 6.36 ERA) comes in off a terrible outing, giving up three home runs over 3 2/3’s innings vs. the Indians.

Johnson (1-1, 6.88) most recently appeared vs. the Yanks last weekend, allowing three runs over three innings in a no-decision. 

The pick: The Angels have lost seven straight after last night’s 3-0 setback and I think they’ll have a difficult time vs. Johnson, who has faced the Angels twice, giving up one run over seven innings. I’m laying the price and expecting a blowout.

Boston Red Sox 8* play

The set-up: Jon Gray has been solid for the Rockies this year, but I still think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Eric Lauer for the most part has struggled for the Padres this year and I think he’s going to get the hook early here as well. 

The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 4.03 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Padres throughout his career, but he comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off nine hits and a walk over four innings. 

Lauer (6-8, 4.43) is 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.488 WHIP and .364 OBA in four career starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while SD has seen the total soar over the number in 14 of 21 at home this year when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. Expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play

The set-up: Houston was 11-5 last year and it won its third straight AFC South Division title. The Packers though are coming off a terrible 6-9-1 season, which has seen some major changes come to the team over the last couple of months. Houston was 3-1 in the preseason last year, after going 3-4 the year before. Green Bay though is led by first-time coach Matt LaFleur and despite this being only Week 1 of the pre-season, I think he’ll be extra motivated here to actually try and win this game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers aren’t likely going to play, but each team has plenty of talent. Houston has AJ McCarron and Joe Webb III as its backup QB’s, but the Texans have taken a step back in the RB department, with Lamar Miller once again shouldering much of the load. The Pack will be looking at DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle under center in this one and they also have a competition at RB with Kapri Bibbs and Dexter Williams. I think that LaFleur coaches for the victory today.

Green Bay Packers 10* play money line.

The set-up: Detroit head coach Matt Patricia was the Pats defensive coordinator, but his first year with the Lions didn’t go as he planned. Patricia is on “hot seat” as he enters the 2019/20 season and I believe he’s going to have his team ready to play vs. his former boss and the defending Super Bowl champs. Note that when the Patriots came to Detroit in Week of the regular season last year, Detroit pulled away for an impressive 26-10 victory, as the Lions held the Pats to 12 first downs and 209 yards. 

The pick: New England isn’t expected to play any of its star players on either side of the ball. Detroit has many new faces on both sides of the ball, which leads to chemistry issues obviously. In this meaningless contest, I believe the offenses take a back seat and that the defensive units become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is high.

NE Patriots/Detroit Lions UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Here’s a matchup where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas, while the home side counters with Zac Gallen.

The pitchers: Vargas (6-5, 3.93 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Friday. 

Gallen (1-3, 2.72) started seven games for Miami before getting traded and I think he’s going to respond in his first start for his new club. Gallen would go on to allow 25 hits and post 43 strikeouts while walking 18 over 36 1/3’s innings of work for the Fish. 

The pick: Note as well that Gallen has pitched seven innings in each of his last two starts. And note that while Vargas is 3-2 with a 2.92 ERA in all in home situations this year, he’s just 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA on the road. All things considered, a great price on the home side here. Lay it.

Arizona D-Backs 10* play

The set-up: No disrespect about a solid LASK team from the Austrian Bundesliga, but i believe it’ll come up short here vs. their Swiss counterparts. Note that this EL Qualifier is the first ever meeting between the clubs. 

The pick: FC Basel though plays in the much tougher Swiss Super League and it also has the home field advantage. And if Basel can in fact lay the hammer down here, it’ll basically take away the threat of a loss in the away fixture. FC Basel has won 11 of its last 14 games and scored two or more goals in 17 of its last 19. I’m laying the price.

FC Basel 10* play

The set-up: Last night’s game was cancelled, meaning that these two teams will face off in a double-header on Wednesday. These types of situations almost always favor the home side anyways, but in the early matchup I think there is a bigger talent discrepancy on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors hand the ball to Ariel Jurado, while the home side counters with Zach Plesac.

The pitchers: Jurado (6-6, 4.92 ERA) is just 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA over his last four starts, most recently conceding four runs over four frames vs. the M’s on Tuesday.

Plesac (6-3, 3.41) is 4-1 with a 3.51 ERA at home this season. 

The pick: Jurado is being thrown to the wolves here in my opinion and I believe the home side will take full advantage. Lay the price.

Cleveland Indians 6* play

The set-up: Both teams underachieved this year and each is now in a fight for a place in the CL Group Stage. But for me this one comes down to the overall quality of league that each team plays in. Porto plays in the much tougher Portuguese League. Porto led for most of the year, only to bow to Benefica right at the end. Look for this extra motivation to play a big factor here after failing to achieve the direct-ticket. 

The pick: Krasnodar won’t be lacking for motivation here, but it’s lost two if its last three at home, conceding twice in both losses. Porto is unbeaten in nine of its last ten fixtures and I expect it to lay the hammer down from start to finish. 

FC Porto 9* play

The set-up: Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Yamamoto, while the home side goes with Steven Matz. 

The pitchers: Yamamoto (4-2, 3.94 ERA) was blasted for four runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Twins in his last outing.

Matz (6-7, 4.60) was shelled for five runs over three innings in an 8-4 loss to the Bucs in his last start. 

The pick: New York is on a mission now as it looks to complete the four-game sweep. Clearly the Marlins won’t be going down without a fight. Considering the starting pitchers and the above situational/motivational factors, I think this one flys over the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

NY Mets/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think that the Reds build off yesterday’s victory and take advantage of another mismatch on the mound today as well. The visitors go with Jose Suarez, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Suarez (2-2, 5.66 ERA) comes in off a terrible start vs. the lowly Tigers on Wednesday, allowing four runs with three walks over four innings, failing to strike out a single batter. Suarez failed to complete five innings in any of his five July starts and note that he’s been terrible in all night games with a 6.08 ERA. 

DeSclafani (6-6, 4.07) is coming off a loss vs. the hard-hitting Braves on Thursday, allowing three runs with five K’s over five innings. DeSclafani has quietly turned things around of late, as over his last ten starts he’s 4-3 with a 60:13 K:BB. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-13 (-4.6 units) as a road dog of +100 to +150 this season, while Cincinnati is 8-3 this season as a home fav of -150 or higher. I LOVE DeSclafani here and I do actually believe he could/should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: PAOK Salonika lost 3-2 in aggregate at this point of the qualifier vs. Ajax three years ago and while it’d like to use the “revenge angle,” I still think that it’s severely outclassed here vs. the Dutch giant. Note that in this competition last term, PAOK beat Basel 5-1 on aggregate and Spartak Moscow 3-2 in the qualifying rounds, but they were then smashed 5-2 be Benefica in a play off. 

The pick: Ajax made it through the three qualifying rounds a year ago, but it then finished second to Bayern Munich in Group E. Ajax also beat Real Madrid and Juventus, before then losing out to Tottenham via the away goals rule in the semis. While there have been some injuries of late, Ajax is still loaded with the superior talent and I believe that’ll be more than enough to win the match here. All things considered, a great price. 

Ajax Amsterdam 10* play

The set-up: Michael Wacha comes in off a decent start, but previous to that he’d been demoted to the bullpen because of inefficiency. The Dodgers’ counter with rookie Tony Gonsolin. 

The pitchers: Wacha (6-4, 5.15 ERA) gave up one run over four innings vs. Houston on July 27th in a relief appearance and the performance earned him another shot in the rotation (note that Wacha is a terrible 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts vs. the Dodgers.) 

Gonsolin (0-1, 5.63) got a four inning save at Coors in his second appearance most recently, before then getting sent back to the minors. Gonsolin has gotten the call today because of an injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is just 3-7 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while LA is 22-8 as a -125 to -175 range at home. I’m banking on the rookie getting the better of his struggling veteran counterpart.

8* COACH’S CORNER

The set-up: It’s a must win game for Sporting Kansas City for the most part, however I think the visitors will stumble here vs. the revenge-minded home side which fell 3-2 in the reverse fixture at the end of May. Seattle has made big strides since then, winning four of its last six MLS matches and working its way back into second place in the West. 

The pick: Johnny Russell managed a hat trick in SKC’s 3-2 win over Seattle earlier in the season, but I don’t expect “lightning to strike twice” here. Especially on the road. SKC has made the playoffs in eight straight years, but I think that run comes to an end here. And in resounding fashion. With a chance to put the final nail in the coffin, I look for Seattle to avenge its earlier loss and to keep its clear momentum that its created of late, rolling strong in front of the home town crowd. 

Seattle Sounders 10* play

The set-up: Chris Paddack has had a very good rookie season for the Padres despite what happens here today. Kenta Maeda hasn’t fared as well for the Dodgers this year, but I still think he has more than enough to get the job done in this particular matchup. All things considered, I believe this to be a very fair price. 

The pitchers: Paddack (7-5, 2.78 ERA) comes in off a win vs. the Orioles on Monday, allowing just one run over five innings. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Paddack, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Maeda (7-8, 4.07) enters off a terrible start vs. the Rockies on Monday, allowing six runs over four innings. Overall though Maeda has been strong this season with a 118/38 K/W spanning 112.2 innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is a poor 26-32 (-8.1 units) this year following a loss, while LA is 21-8 (+8.9 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. As mentioned off the top, I think this is a great price.

LA Dodgers 10* play

The set-up: It’s a rookie vs. a veteran here. The young gun so far has looked solid and I think the home side will take advantage of struggling Detroit starter Jordan Zimmermann here. The Rangers counter with Pedro Payano. 

The pitchers: Zimmermann (1-8, 7.23) comes in off his “best” start of the season vs. the Angels on Monday, allowing two runs over five innings. It was his first win of the year. Overall though the vet has been a disaster, especially on the road where he’s just 1-2 with a 7.33 ERA.

Payano (1-0, 3.18) walked four in his “worst” start of the year vs. the hard-hitting A’s on Sunday, allowing just three runs while also striking out four in what turned out to be a no-decision. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit it just 6-17 as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range this year, while Texas is 31-23 (+11.9 units) this season following a victory. Lay the price.

Texas Rangers 8* play

The set-up: Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence. The visitors hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez, while the home side counters with Drew Smyly. Smyly however has looked a lot better of late and I think he’ll easily get the better of his erratic counterpart. 

The pitchers: Lopez (5-9, 5.43 ERAhas been a lot better of late, but note that he’s still just 2-4 with a 5.33 ERA on the road this season.  

Smyly (2-5, 6.85) has looked fantastic over two starts for the Phillies, going 1-0 with a minuscule 0.69 ERA, allowing one earned run over 13 innings with three walks and 13 strikeouts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is a poor 10-18 as a road dog of +150 or higher this season, while Philly is 15-8 as a home favorite of -150 or higher. I’m laying the price and expecting a blowout.

Philadelphia Phillies 9* play

The set-up: Two teams playing out the stretch of the 2019 campaign collide on Sunday afternoon and I think that Sean Reid-Foley and the visiting Jays have the advantage over Jimmy Yacabonis and the home side. 

The pitchers: Yacabonis (1-2, 7.34 ERA) will open this game and then quickly make way for Tom Eshelman (0-2, 6.35). Baltimore is just 16-38 at home this year. 

Reid-Foley (1-1, 2.55) comes in off a gem vs. the Royals on Tuesday, allowing no runs over five innings. Over 17.2 big league innings this year he’s posted a very respectable 2.55 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Baltimore has allowed a whopping 123 home runs at home this year as well. And that’s bad news, as note that Toronto has led the Majors in home runs since June 16th with 83. In my opinion, this one has blowout written all over it. 

Toronto Blue Jays 8* play

The set-up: Yes the New England Revolution have been one of the hottest teams since they hired Bruce Arena, but I think they’ll have a hard time with this LA Football Club, which comes in with considerable momentum of its own. All good things must come to an end and after going unbeaten in 11 machos, I simply think that New England is overmatched finally on the field of play today. 

The pick: LAFC has been decent on the road, with seven wins, two draws and two losses. New England has six wins, two draws and FOUR losses at home. Look for LAFC’s depth to prove to be too much for the home side to handle out of the break.

LAFC 10* play

The set-up: Two veteran hurlers with chips on their shoulders go head-to-head in this interesting NL matchup on Saturday night and in my professional opinion, runs are definitely going to be at a premium. The Reds’ trot out the newly acquired Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. 

The pitchers: Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) scuffled in his last start for his old team, giving up a career high seven runs over four innings, but terrible performances like that have truly been few and far between for the big right-hander. Note that Bauer has a 1.21 WHIP and 185:63 K:BB through 156.2 innings this year. 

Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) enters off a loss vs. the Nationals on Monday, allowing four runs over six innings. Keuchel though has been at his best at home this year, so far posting a solid 2.66 ERA to this point. 

The pick: I believe the stage is set for a “duel.” This number is high, play the under.

10* NL 2ND HALF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Reds/Braves.

The set-up: One of these pitchers has been solid all year, while the other has struggled. One of these teams is still in the playoff hunt, while the other is trending in the other direction. When you add it all up, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. The Mets go with the newly acquired Marcus Stroman, while the home side goes with Chris Archer. 

The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 2.96 ERA) has faced Pittsburgh twice in his career, and he’s gone 0-1 with a 1.04 ERA. 

Archer (3-8, 5.58) has gone 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA over his last nine starts and the Pirates have lost each of his last four trips to the hill. 

The pick: In fact Archer faced the Mets on Sunday and he was rocked for five runs over five innings. I think we’re getting great value on Stroman in this match-up, as he’ll be out to prove himself for his new team and he’s currently in much better form than his counterpart. Lay the price.

NY Mets 10* play

The set-up: Dustin May makes his MLB debut tonight and I think he’ll be able to match his counterpart Eric Lauer inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the hungry and hard-hitting home side.

The pitchers: Lauer (5-8, 4.52) has had decent success vs. the Dodgers throughout his career, including in two earlier starts this season, but he enters in terrible form having lost four straight decisions.

May (0-0, 0.00) was 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his five Triple-A starts before getting the call up. 

The pick: The Dodgers are 41-14 at home and I believe May slides in and gets a win in his first start as a pro. Lay the price.

LA Dodgers 8* play

The set-up: The is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry dog in my opinion, as the Red Sox will look to build on their most recent 3-1 series victory at home as they visit the Bronx this weekend. Boston sees Eduardo Rodriguez get the call, while the Yanks go with James Paxton. 

The pitchers: Rodriguez (13-4, 4.13 ERA) enters on top form, having gone 7-0 with a 3.07 ERA over his last nine starts.

Paxton (5-6, 4.72) has had an up and down year and while he’s enjoyed success vs. the Red Sox in the past, note that he’s interestingly given up ten home runs in the first inning and posted an 11.00 ERA in the process. 

The pick: Boston is 10.5 games behind the Yanks and 3.5 games behind the Rays. But after winning the first three games of their series vs. New York, the Red Sox come into this series having lost four straight. This is a huge game for the Red Sox and I believe they step up and answer the call.

Boston Red Sox 9* play

The set-up: It’s an important game/series for both teams, meaning that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Brewers hand the ball to Zach Davies, while the home side goes with Jose Quintana.

The pitchers: Davies (8-4, 3.56 ERA) was 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his first nine starts this year, but he’s since fallen apart, especially of late in getting blown out in back-to-back losses, most recently allowing seven runs off four hits over five innings in an 11-4 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. 

Quintana (8-7, 4.47) has one good start and one bad start vs. the Brewers this year, but overall he’s 6-4 with a 2.80 ERA vs. Milwaukee for his career. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee is just 12-16 as a road dog this year, while the Cubs are 22-7 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

Chicago Cubs 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Dodgers return home and hand the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw and I think he and the hard-hitting home side are worth laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. The scuffling visiting side goes with Joey Lucchesi.

The pitchers: Lucchesi (7-5, 4.12 ERA) is 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA vs. the Dodgers this year, after join 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA last season.

Kershaw (9-2, 2.85) is 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts vs. the Padres this year and he’s 19-6 with a 2.00 ERA in 37 career match ups. 

The pick: San Diego won three in a row in LA in early July, so the home side won’t be taking anything for granted. Despite losing their last two home games, the Dodgers are still an impressive 40-14 at Chavez Ravine. Look for Kershaw to easily get the better of Lucchesi. 

LA Dodgers -1.5 9* play

The set-up: Hamilton has opened the season 5-1, but a devastating injury to QB Jeremiah Masoli has seen their Grey Cup odds drop from +225 to +550 because of it. The Ti-Cats now have to make adjustments on the fly in hostile territory vs. a Riders team which has won two straight. This is a great situational play, as I expect Hamilton to have difficulties on the offensive side of things today as the unit looks to adjust after the Masoli injury. The Riders have looked better of late, but with Zach Collaros eligible to return, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to QB Cody Fajardo.

The pick: Note that three out of these teams last four in the series have fallen under the posted number. With Dane Evans now running the show for Hamilton, expect a much more conservative game-plan from the visitors. I believe when you look at the entire situation that each team finds itself in, that this contest does indeed set up as more of a lower-scoring “chess match” on Thursday night.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Saskatchewan Roughriders UNDER

10* play

The set-up: There’s no more meaningless game of the entire year than the first pre-season game. That said, this is the coaching debut of Broncos’ Vic Fangio and because of that, I believe he’s going to be out to win tonight. Fagio was the defensive coordinator of the Bears’ top-ranked defense in 2018. Joe Flacco likely won’t see much or any time for Denver, meaning that rookie Drew Lock from Missouri will be given the green light. 

The pick: Atlanta is just 5-11 in the preseason under head coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons still have more questions than answers after a 7-9 season and I think the Falcons are going to get “out-coached” in Week 1 (note that ATL star receiver Julio Jones is out for the preseason with a foot injury.) I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout in Fangio’s debut.

Denver Broncos 10* play

The set-up: While the first two games of this series have gone under the number, I think that these two hungry clubs (tied for the lead in the NL Central) will post plenty of runs in the rubber match. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. 

The pitchers: Lester (9-6, 3.63 ERA) is coming off a strong start and he’s had plenty of success vs. the Cards in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Cards are 30-23 at home, while the Cubs are only 21-32 on the road this season.) 

Flaherty (4-6, 4.17) has been very hot of late, but he’s struggled mightily vs. the Cubs throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six match ups.

The pick: Note that the Cubs are expected to welcome slugger Nicholas Castellanos on Thursday night as well, acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. Expect these starters to get chased early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cards OVER 10* play

The set-up: The Twins look for the series sweep here after yesterdays victory and I think the AL team will do just that in this favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) has finally re-found his 2017 form, going 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA over his past eight starts. 

Yamamoto (4-2, 3.64) was brilliant in the early going, but he’s predictably come back down to Earth, posting a horrible 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. 

The pick: Note as well that Pineda is also 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his lone start vs. the Fish. I think the Pineda comes in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price.

Minnesota Twins 10* play

The set-up: Here’s the perfect spot to the pull the trigger on the hungry underdog side in my opinion. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to ace Zach Greinke, while the home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka. 

The pitchers: Greinke (10-4, 2.87 ERA) is only three wins shy of 200 for his career. Over his last three he’s 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA. Clearly the vet won’t be lacking for motivation this afternoon. 

Tanaka (7-6, 4.79) enters off the worst start of his career, allowing 12 runs off 12 hits over three innings in Boston on Thursday (he has a 9.55 ERA over his last four starts.) 

The pick: Arizona picked up the 4-2 win in yesterday’s series opener and I believe the stage is set for another upset here. The Diamondbacks can’t take the foot off the gas here as they sit only three games out of the second wild-card spot. New York is trending in the opposite direction finally, having dropped six of its last nine. Great spot bet on the “hungrier” side.

Arizona DBacks 10* play

The set-up: It’s revenge time for AIK after NK Maribor won the reverse fixture 2-1. All three of those goals came in the first 40 minutes. Despite lagging in aggregate though, the Swedish club has the upper hand here as it returns home. Stockholm faced a similar situation in the previous round of qualification as well, losing the away leg, but then managing to comeback in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: NK Maribor is better at home than on the road (won just once out of its last five attempts and it lost three in a row during that stretch as well.) Maribor has also conceded two or more goals in three of its last five matches. AIK on the other hand has turned things around of late, winning four of its last five and potting two or more goals in all of those contests (AIK has also won three straight fixtures at home.) Revenge is a dish best served cold. 

AIK 10* play

The set-up: A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Dario Agrazal, while the home side counters with ace Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Agrazal (2-1, 3.24 ERA) also comes in off the worst start of his career. Agrazal gave up five runs over six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday, but previous to that he’d not allowed more than two earned runs over his first five starts of his career. Expect a return to the norm here.

Castillo (9-4, 2.71) comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing six runs off eight hits over five innings vs. the Rockies on Friday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Castillo though, who has to be feeling confident as he’s 5-3 with a tiny 2.28 ERA at home.

The pick: After yesterday’s 11-4 Pittsburgh victory, one which ended a nine-game losing streak and which featured a wild benches-clearing brawl, I believe this contest sets up nicely as much more of a “duel.” 

Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds UNDER 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Two pitchers who are struggling down the stretch collide in this American League contest on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Drew VerHagen, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. 

The pitchers: VerHagen (1-1, 14.40 ERA) gave up seven runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to the Mariners after getting called up last week.

Canning (3-6, 5.15) was most recently shelled for five runs off five hits while striking out two over two innings. Over his last five outings Canning has given up 18 runs combined.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five as a road dog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year as a home favorite of -200 or higher. Look for these starters to get the hook early and play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Tigers/Angels.

The set-up: Is this Noah Syndergaard’s last game ever as a Met? New York enters on a four-game win streak and it just made moves to acquire Marcus Stroman from the Jays. The White Sox hand the ball to the volatile Reynaldo Lopez and they’ve lost five of their last seven. 

The pitchers: Syndergaard (7-5, 4.33) has posted a 3.46 ERA and a 28:9 K:BB over four July outings. 

Lopez (5-9, 5.52) has been sharp in July as well, but note that he’s still only 3-5 with a ballooned 5.68 ERA at home this year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games in which Syndergaard starts, while Chicago is just 3-8 in its last 11 home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. I like Syndergaard to get the better of Lopez. Lay the price.

8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on New York Mets.

The set-up: Neither pitcher instills a lot of confidence. Both teams are in the hunt for one of the wildcard spots. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Beede, while the home side counters with Drew Smyly.

The pitchers: Beede (3-4, 4.85 ERA) comes in off the worst start of his season, allowing four runs, including three homers and ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

Smyly (1-5, 7.69) makes his second start for his new team after giving up one run over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision in the first vs. the Pirates (also striking out eight). 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is still only 16-18 this year after three straight road games, while Philly is still 30-16 as a home favorite. I like Smyly to build off his latest performance. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: Toronto is in full on rebuild mode after moving ace starter Marcus Stroman over the weekend. Toronto took two of three from the Rays, before then losing 10-9 in dramatic fashion in extra innings on Sunday afternoon. Now the Jays have to travel across the country and I think they’ll have a predictable letdown here. And that’s good news for the hungry home side and starter Brad Keller. The Jays go with Thomas Pannone. 

The pitchers: Pannone (2-4, 6.39 ERA) has made 25 appearances this year and only three of those have been actual “starts.” Over those three starts he’s lasted just 2 2/3’s, 2 1/3’s and 4 1/3’s innings. 

Keller (7-9, 3.95) enters throwing his best of the entire season, having won four straight, he most recently went seven scoreless in a 2-0 loss to the Braves on Wednesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is a poor 16-30 as a road dog already this year, while KC is 8-6 as a home favorite. Lay the price and expect a rout.

10* play on the Kansas City Royals.

The set-up: It’s an interesting matchup on the mound to open this important series and I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Patrick Corbin gets the nod for the home side and he’s opposed by Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Keuchel (3-3, 3.50 ERA) has been solid overall for his new team, but note that he’s 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. the Nats. 

Corbin (8-5, 3.25) Corbin comes in off a gem, holding the Rockies scoreless over six at home on Wednesday. He’s had plenty of success vs. the Braves in the past by going 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA over ten games as well.

The pick: Atlanta looks primed for another letdown here in my opinion after it lost yesterday, failing to complete the sweep in Philadelphia on Sunday. Conversely, I expect the Nationals to keep the foot on the gas here after dropping the first two games of their weekend series vs. the Dodgers, before then bouncing back with a convincing 11-4 win yesterday afternoon. Lay the price.

8* play on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: This has been a completely lop-sided series so far and I believe that the home side is going to keep the foot on the gas for one more game and on the National stage. New York goes with Domingo German, while the Red Sox go with Chris Sale.

The pitchers: German (12-3, 4.03 ERA) comes in his worst start of the year, allowing eight runs off nine hits over three innings in a fortune no-decision. 

Sale (5-9, 4.00) has given up just two runs off six hits over his last 12 innings of work while also posting 22 K’s in the process (he owns a tiny 2.10 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Evil Empire.) 

The pick: The Yankees are just 2-5 in their last seven and their starting pitchers have posted a combined ERA of 16.62. And that’s bad news facing a Boston line-up which has already produced 52 hits in this series. Look for Sale to continue his recent progression with a vintage performance on Sunday Night.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Boston Red Sox.

The set-up: The Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series and I expect LA to keep the foot on the gas here despite having to face Washington ace Stephen Strasburg this afternoon. The visitors go with the equally as capable Walker Buehler.

The pitchers: Buehler (9-1, 3.23 ERA) has gone 5-0 over his last ten starts with a 2.79 ERA.

Strasburg (13-4, 3.37) is 10-1 since losing 6-0 to LA on a combined one-hitter from Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenley Jansen back in May. 

The pick: For arguments sakes, let’s call the pitchers a “wash.” Note though that LA is 18-7 (+8.3 units) this year in all “day” games, while Washington is just 4-6 as a home underdog. This one has “sweep” written all over it.

8* COACH’S CLINIC on the LA Dodgers.

The set-up: After yesterday’s back and forth “slug-fest,” I’m expecting a much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Yonny Chirinos, while the home side counters with Aaron Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Chirinos (8-5, 3.29 ERA) has gone at least five frames in all 15 of his starts this year and he’s 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four career outings vs. the Jays.

Sanchez (3-14, 6.06) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits while striking out six and walking no one in an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Indians.

The pick: Note as well that Sanchez owns a tiny 2.03 ERA in 16 career games vs. the Rays. As mentioned off the top, after yesterday’s 10-9 Blue jays win in 12 innings, I think this one sets up nicely as a lower-scoring “under.” 

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the under Rays/Jays.

The set-up: Two suspect hurlers go head-to-head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian Sampson, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Sampson (6-7, 5.19 ERA) while Sampson is 1-0 vs. the A’s in four career starts, he sports an unremarkable 5.51 ERA over that span.

Bailey (8-7, 5.42) beat the Mariners 10-2 at home in his debut for his new club, before then predictably falling back down to Earth in an 11-1 loss at Houston in his second. 

The pick: Note as well that Bailey has faced the Rangers twice already this year while with KC, losing both starts (16-2, 6-2) and posting a 10.13 ERA in the process. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Rangers/A’s.

The set-up: Detroit has lost the first two games of this series, managing just two runs in each setback. I think the visitors will have a hard time again at the plate facing M’s vet Marco Gonzales. The visitors counter with rookie Tyler Alexander.

The pitchers: Alexander (0-0, 2.25 ERA) gave up one run off three hits over seven innings vs. the toothless Jays in his last outing. This will be only his third start of his career and clearly the book is still out on the rookie at this point.

Gonzales (11-8, 4.37) has won six of his past eight starts and he has a 3.09 ERA in two career outings vs. the Tigers. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is a poor 16-28 this year as a road dog, while Seattle is 20-15 this season vs. clubs with losing records. I’m laying the price with Gonzales tonight.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.

The set-up: So far this has been a lop-sided series, with the Red Sox easily taking the first two games. I think that trend continues here with what I think to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The Yanks go with CC Sabathia, while the home side goes with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Sabathia (5-5, 4.50 ERA) has had plenty of success vs. the Red Sox throughout his career, but ht veteran comes in on terrible form, having posted a 6.35 ERA over three starts this month. 

Rodriguez (12-4, 4.10) is 8-1 with a highly respectable 3.03 ERA over his last 11 starts and he’s earned a victory in each of his last four trips to the hill.

The pick: So far the Yanks have been outscored 29-8 in this series and I expect that lop-sided offensive trend to continue. All things considered, a great price on a “team on a mission.” Lay it.

8* play on the Boston Red Sox.

The set-up: Zack Wheeler appears as if he’ll be staying with the Mets and he returns from the IL refreshed and ready to go on Friday night. I think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to take care of the Pirates’ Dario Agrazal. Pittsburgh comes in having lost five straight, while the Mets just took two of three from the Padres, including a 4-0 win on Thursday afternoon at home. 

The pitchers: Agrazal (2-0, 2.25 ERA) gave up one run over six frames in a no-decision to the Phillies in his last start. The sample size is simply too small in my opinion and I believe he’s in “over his head” in this difficult road venue.

Wheeler (6-6, 4.69) is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts vs. the Pirates.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is a terrible 10-15 this year as a road underdog in the +100 to +150 range, while New York is 11-6 in its last 17 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Lay the price with confidence.

9* COACH’S CLINIC on Mets.

The set-up: Winnipeg is rolling at 5-0 and I think the Blue and Gold will keep the foot on the gas in Hamilton this weekend. In fact, many CFL experts are predicting that this will in fact be this year’s Grey Cup matchup, as Hamilton comes in at 4-1. Note that they’ve split their last four games, each winning at home and also winning on the road. It’s true that the last seven games played between these teams have all gone “under” the number, but note that the average total has bee 55.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road favorite, while Hamilton has seen the total sail over the posted number in all three of its home games thus far. The best in the West vs. the beast in the East. Look for these two teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to sail over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over Bombers/Cats.

The set-up: Texas has fallen off the map in the pursuit of a wild card spot and if Oakland isn’t careful, it will also follow suit. The A’s return home to take on Texas, who sits 6.5 games behind them in the division. Oakland has to be feeling confident though as it’s already 6-3 so far in this season series. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Ariel Jurado, while the home side counters with Brett Anderson.

The pitchers: Jurado (5-6, 4.92 ERA) is 0-2 with a 12.79 ERA in two lifetime appearances vs. Oakland. Overall it’s been a difficult year for Jurado, but note that he’s been at his best on the road funnily enough, going 3-2 with a respectable 4.12 ERA thus far. 

Anderson (9-5, 3.82) has had varying success vs. the Rangers throughout his career, but he comes back rested after a paternity leave from the birth of his son. Note that Anderson has been at his best in all “night” game as well so far this season, going 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 15 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in 25 of 39 this year vs. clubs with winning records. I think this number is just a little high.

Texas Rangers/Oakland A's under 8* play

The set-up: The Tribe have won nine of their last 11, including yesterday’s 4-0 victory at Toronto. Overall Cleveland is 27-21 on the road this year. KC has been hot as well, winning nine of 12 since the All Star Game, but I think the home side will struggle here in this clear mismatch on the mound. The visitors go with Adam Plutko, while the home side goes with Mike Montgomery.

The pitchers: Plutko (3-2, 4.81 ERA) faced KC on Saturday, giving up just one run off two hits over seven innings. In two starts vs. the Royals this year Plutko is 0-1 despite a minuscule 1.64 ERA. 

Montgomery (1-3, 6.83) was rocked for five runs off six hits and a walk with one K in a 10-5 loss to the Indians on Friday. Overall for his career he’s 0-1 with a 9.53 ERA in six regular season games vs. Cleveland. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is already a sharp 22-10 (+9 units) this year vs. left-handed starters, while KC is just 13-21 as a home underdog. When you add it all up, it makes this a road price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

Cleveland Indians 8* play

The set-up: The Twins lost two of three to the Yanks at home earlier in the week, but I think they’ll bounce back here in this favorable spot. Minnesota hands the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side goes with Lucas Giolito. 

The pitchers: Berrios (8-5, 2.96 ERA) hasn’t been at his best in the month of July, but despite going 0-1 over three trips to the hill, he’s still posted a very respectable 3.45 ERA. 

Giolito (11-4, 3.12) most recently gave up one run off seven hits over 6 2/3’s innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Rays, but previous to that he’d posted a 6.48 ERA over five starts. 

The pick: Berrios has to be feeling confident here as he’s 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Chicago. Giolito is an unremarkable 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Twins. After going 1-2 in back-to-back series against some of the best in the league, I think Minnesota comes in “focused on the task at hand” tonight. Lay the price.

Minnesota Twins 10* play

The set-up: I think that Mike Minor and the hard-hitting visiting side are definitely worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side counters with Mike Leake.

The pitchers: Minor (8-5, 2.86 ERA) will likely be shipped out of Texas before the trade dead-line, so he certainly won’t be lacking for motivation here. 

Leake (8-8, 4.27) went the distance vs. the Angels in his most recent outing, allowing a single hit in the top of the ninth, finishing with his second career shutout. Can anyone say letdown spot?

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minor has already defeated Leake the Mariners twice this year (Leake is just 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in eight career starts vs. Texas.) I like Minor to complete the “hat-trick” here, so lay the price.

Texas Rangers 10* play

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a little low. The lowly Orioles hand the ball to John Means in this one, while the home side counters with Taylor Clarke. 

The pitchers: Means (8-5, 2.95 ERA) has been fantastic this season, but I simply feel tha the rookie is in the wrong place at the wrong time here. This is a difficult interleague venue and I think the format will be an issue for Means tonight.

Clarke (2-3, 6.50) most recently was shelled for four runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to the Brewers on Friday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 33 of 56 “night” games this season, while Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 interleague contests. This number is a tad low.

Baltimore Orioles/Arizona DBacks OVER 8* play

The set-up: This is the first leg of the Champions League Qualifications. BATE Borisov eliminated Polis Piast Gliwice in the second round, while Rosenborg won both matches ageing Linfield in the previous round of competition. This is the first time the teams have ever met. BATE though comes in on top form, having gone undefeated over its previous eight games across all competitions. Note that BATE has kept five clean sheets in its previous ten home showings. Rosenborg has been playing well as well, coming in on a string of five straight victories. But although the Norwegian Champions have scored in eight of their last ten away matches, I think they’re going to have much more difficulty vs. sting BATE on its home turf. 

The pick: Both teams come in “firing on all cylinders,” but I don’t think that the home field advantage, and BATE form in front of the home town crowd, can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. 

BATE Borisov 10* play

The set-up: With their 9-4 win over the Rays on Monday, Boston is now one game behind Tampa for second place in the AL East. The visitors have to be feeling confident that they can build off that victory by handing the ball to ace Chris Sale today. The home side counters with Yonny Chirinos. 

The pitchers: Sale (4-9, 4.05 ERA) comes in off perhaps his best start of the year, going six shutout innings vs. the Jays on Thursday, striking out 12. 

Chirinos (8-5, 3.29) is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA in five appearances vs. the Red Sox lifetime. 

The pick: Note as well that Sale is 9-6 with a 2.94 ERA over 116 1/3’s innings opposed vs. the Rays lifetime, giving up 78 hits and striking out 169. And take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 77-41 (+11.7 units) the L2 years as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while Tampa Bay is just 8-10 (-4.2 units) this year after a loss by four runs or less. I absolutely believe the Sale and the surging visiting side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Lay it.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: PSV is unbeaten in 20 of its last 22 official games and one of the two setback was against AJAX. FC Basel is a huge name in Switzerland, but I think it’s in for a rude awakening here vs. one of the best home teams in Europe. 

The pick: Note that PSV has won 22 of its last 24 at home outright. Ajax is ripe for the picking now after depleting some of its major resources, which leaves the doors open for PSV to take its place back in the Netherlands. Expect the home side to make the most of this opportunity and lay the reasonable price.

PSV Eindhoven 10* play

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hard-hitting visiting underdog. The Rangers turn to Adrian Sampson, while the Mariners go with Marco Gonzales. This is the opener of a three-game set and after seven straight losses, I look for the Rangers to get untracked tonight. 

The pitchers: Sampson (6-6, 4.92 ERA) has been used mainly in relief this year, but he comes in confident as he’s a solid 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career appearances vs. the M’s. 

Gonzales (10-8, 4.48) is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA in three appearances vs. the Rangers this season. 

The pick: The good news for Texas is that Seattle’s struggles are even worse, as it enters having lost eight of its last nine. Note that Texas is already 6-2 this year after having lost six or seven of its last eight games, while Seattle is a poor 31-42 vs. right-handed starters this season. 

Texas Rangers

10* play

The set-up: Despite taking two of three from the Pirates at home last week, the Cards won’t be taking anything for granted here as they’re still only 4-5 vs. Pittsburgh this season. St. Louis comes in with plenty of momentum as well after taking three of four from the Reds over the weekend. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Ponce De Leon, while the Pirates counter with Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Ponce de Leon (1-0, 2.80 ERA) allowed four runs over four innings to these very Pirates last week, earning a no-decision for his effort. 

Williams (3-3, 5.17) last start was skipped over due to severe “flu like” symptoms. He’s 1-2 with a 9.53 ERA in four starts since coming off the IL.

The pick: Note though that the Cardinals have posted 49 runs while wining seven of their last ten games, while the Pirates are just 2-7 since the Mid-Summer Classic, scoring only 25 runs. I like Ponce de Leon to get the better of his counterpart.

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Pittsburgh Pirates)

9* play

The set-up: Here’s a matchup of two relatively unknowns. That said, one is much more “unknown” than the other. Ehrat Sandro is from Switzerland and he’s ranked 392nd in the World. Thomas Fabbiano is from Italy and he’s ranked 92nd. 

The pick: Fabbiano has the experience advantage over his counterpart and I think that that matters at this point. Look for Fabbiano’s bigger serve to prove to be too much for the 392nd ranked player in the World to handle down the stretch. Lay the price.

The set-up: Two French players going head-to-head here. Benoit Paire though clearly has the upper-hand in the ATP Hamburg Tournament, as he’s ranked 29th at the moment, while Jeremy Chardy is all the way down in 80th. 

The pick: Paire comes in on the current better form as well and I believe his superior athleticism and huge serve will prove to be too much for the over-matched Chardy to handle down the stretch. All things considered, a great price. 

The set-up: Yesterday’s total blasted well past the posted number, but all signs point to more of a “duel” here in my opinion. The home side turns to Walker Buehler to try and complete the three-game sweep of the impotent Fish, while the visitors counter with rookie Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Yamomoto (4-0, 1.59 ERA) has not conceded more than two earned runs in any of his outing since he debuted in mid June.

Buehler (8-1, 3.44) has 120 K’s over 110 innings this year and he owns a 3.60 ERA over two career starts vs. Miami. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 already this season as an underdog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 26 of 42 vs. clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

10* TOTAL DOMINATION under.

The set-up: I think that Angels rookie left-hander Dillon Peters has the advantage over his rookie counterpart Yusei Kikuchi of the Mariners. 

The pitchers: Peters (1-0, 4.15 ERA) has made four appearances in the big leagues this year and three of them have come against the Mariners. He actually beat them on June 8th in California, allowing three runs with four K’s over six innings. 

Kikuchi (4-6, 5.01) is a disastrous 1-2 with a 10.91 ERA in four starts vs. LA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -170 to -190 range. This one has blowout written all over it, lay it.

LA Angels 8* play

The set-up: Oakland managed a late win on Saturday afternoon, but I think that Minnesota will bounce back in the finale in front of the home town crowd. The visitors go with Daniel Mengden to toe the rubber, while the home side goes with Michael Pineda. 

The pitchers: Mengden (5-1, 4.21 ERA) has been sharp of late, but he’s struggled in his only start vs. the Twins by posting a 7.94 ERA. 

Pineda (6-5, 4.38) has allowed more than three runs just once time over his 12 starts this year. Pineda has dominated the A’s throughout his career, going 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA over six career starts. 

The pick: After last night’s dramatic come from behind victory, I think the A’s have a predictable letdown here. Lay it.

10* ROCK-STAR Minnesota

The set-up: Gio Gonzalez has been sharp in his limited time for the Brewers, but I think he’ll struggle vs. Zack Greinke and in this difficult road venue. 

The pitchers: Gonzalez (2-1, 3.19 ERA) will make his first start in over eight weeks and I think he’s being thrown to the wolves. 

Greinke (10-4, 2.95) struggled in his first start back from the break, but overall he’s been solid once again this season, especially at home where he’s 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA.

The pick: Note that the D-Backs have now scored 39 runs over their past four games and I expect that offensive trend to continue here in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Arizona D-Backs

10* play

The set-up: Jacob deGrom has been his usual dominant self for the Mets of late, but Tyler Beede has for the most part struggled for the Giants this season. These are two hungry teams and I believe this total will sneak over this low number once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his past ten starts, going 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in the process.

Beede (3-3, 5.44) comes in off a strong performance vs. the Brewers on Sunday, allowing three runs off seven hits over seven innings, but as mentioned off the top, overall he’s struggled this year, especially at home where he’s 0-1 with a poor 5.11 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has seen the total go over the number in ten of 13 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher already, while San Francisco has seen the total go over in 16 of 22 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC on the over Mets/Giants.