The set-up: I like 7-5 Buffalo to crush 7-5 Charlotte. Buffalo comes in with considerable momentum and I think the Bulls carry that momentum over after winning five of six and three straight ot end the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand is just happy to be here in my opinion, as the 49ers make their first bowl appearance ever in their five-year history. 

The pick: Both teams average 31.5 PPG. Charlotte concedes 32.6 PPG though (which dropped to only 19 over its final five games, but I still think the 49ers will have a hard time slowing down Kyle Vantrease and the Bulls.) Additionally note that Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite, while Charlotte is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. The Bulls are ranked No. 35 in the country on defense as well. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

8* play on Buffalo.

The set-up: Utah's won four of its last five. The Hawks come in off a humbling blowout loss to the Knicks, and I believe they'll be doubling down on the defensive end after allowing 143 points to New York. Utah's success the last few years has come because of its strong defensive play and that's been the case again during its win recent win skein. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair, than a run and gun shootout. 

The pick: Additionally note that Utah has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last ten on the road, while ATL has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten as a home dog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Jazz/Hawks.

The set-up: After super hot starts, both of these teams have fallen off of late. Boston is only 4-4-2 in its last ten, while the Isles are 6-4 in their last ten. New York is coming off a humbling 8-3 loss at home to Nashville and clearly it'll be looking to get back to its defensive ways this evening. Note that New York still allows just 2.50 GPG this season. The Bruins come in off a poor 4-3 home loss in OT to the lowly Kings and like their opponent, they'll be out to atone for their lacklustre performance of late. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for a tight defensive affair.

The pick: But note as well that that numbers/trends also point to a goaltenders battle, as NY has seen the total dip under in four of its last five off a loss by two goals or more in its previous game, while Boston has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten vs. clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Isles/Bruins.

The set-up: Hofstra is 7-4 and Princeton is 3-7. Hofstra enters off a win over Stony Brook, after falling by 28 to St. Bonaventure. Overall the Pride average 77.6 PPG, but I think they'll have their hands full from this suddenly surging home side. 

The pick: After a slow start though the Tigers come in off two straight victories, inlcuding a 90-86 OT win over Iona at the inaugural Air Force Reserve Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational at the Barclays Center. NOte that the Tigers are also 7-3 ATS in their last ten following an ATS victory, while Hofstra is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following a victory and only 1-4 ATS in its last five road games vs. teams with a losing road record. I think the momentum the Tigers are riding is real and I look for them to carry it over for at least one more game. Lay the points.

10* MID MAJOR MAULING on Princeton.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot for a play on the "under." Boston has had a few days off to absorb a 115-109 loss to Philadelphia at home. Now it faces a Dallas Mavericks team which just beat Milwaukee on the road with offensive star Luca Doncic. Now the team returns home and I believe a letdown is imminent here for the Mavs. Boston has lost two straight and I look for it to kick off this Western road swing by doubling down on the defensive end.

The pick: Note as well that Boston has seen the total go under in seven of nine non-conference games this year, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in all three games it's played in this year in trying to revenge a road loss vs an opponent. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely believe this number is too high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Celtics/Mavericks.

The set-up: The Predators come in off a 5-2 win over the Rangers last night and I think they'll have a hard time mustering up the same energy here vs. this stingy home side. New York has won three in a row and four of five, while last night's victory snapped a two-game slide for Nashville. The Isles only concede 2.32 GPG and I like them to take advantage of this content and now tired Predators side. Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne has lost two of his last three outings and in his last two trips to the next he's given up four goals in each. 

The pick: The Isles beat the Sabres 3-2 in OT in their last outing. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov is 11-3-2 with a 2.24 GAA. Notd as well that the Predators are just 2-7 in their last nine in the second game of a back-to-back after winning the first one by two goals or more, while New York is 6-1 (+5.3 units) this year when playing on two days rest. Considering the situation and these trends, I believe we're getting super value on the home side in this one.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Islanders.

The set-up: Both teams are desperate for a victory and because of that, I'm expecting a high-tempo contest. Faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. The Blazers have lost three of their last five, while the Suns have dropped two in a row. Strtictly from a "situational" stand point, I think this one absolutely sets up as a high-scoring affair. 

The pick: The numbers/trends also support a high-scoring game though, with Portland having seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 off a road loss vs. a division rival, while Phoenix has seen the total go over in four of five as a home dog already this season. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Blazers/Suns.

The set-up: The 6-7 Indianapolis Colts can keep their wild card hopes alive with an improbable upset win today. How will Indy pull that off? Certainly not by trying to keep pace with Drew Brees and the high-flying home side. The Colts have lost four of five, but they'll be laying everything on the line tonight in an effort to pull off the victory. The offense is still without dynamic WR T.Y. Hilton. Indy has to play to its strengths here, with plenty of running and short dump passes by Jacoby Brissett. Of course, the strength of the Colts still lies on the defensive end. 

The pick: The Saints threw everything they had at the 49ers last week, but New Orleans came up on the short end of a high-scoring shootout. New Orleans' defense was exposed by the 49ers, but clearly the unit catches a break today facing the Colts much more conservative offensive game-style. Note as well that Indy has already seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records and in six of its last seven after three or more consecutive losses, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the number in five of its last six after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This number is high.

10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Colts/Saints.

The set-up: Washington has won eight of nine, with the lone loss a 5-2 defeat to these very CBJ's. Inexplicably, it was Washington's third straight loss in this series. The Blue Jackets have been terrible overall though, dropping six of their last seven, failing to score twice in the process. The Caps come in off a 5-2 win at Tampa Bay, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. 

The pick: Washington has seen the total go under the number in all five games it's played in this season when trykng to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while CBJ has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 14 after playing three straight on the road. This one has low-scoring goaltenders battle written all over it.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Capitals/Jackets.

The set-up: I think the 1-5 Marist Red Foxes give the 6-2 Rider Broncos everything they can handle. Marist is only averaging 56.2 PPG, but it's been good defensively in conceding only 62. 

The pick: The Broncs have won four in a row and I think they come in complacent here. On paper clearly Rider is the better team, but I think the situation and the numbers point to the Red Foxes being able to cover with this huge number they've been afforded. Note as well that Marist is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five off a close road loss by three points or less, while Rider is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Marist.

The set-up: The Bills three-game win streak ended with a 24-17 loss at home to the Ravens. Buffalo is seeking its tenth win of the year for the first time since 1999, but the Bills will have their hands full with this Steelers team which enters having won three straight. Last week the Steelers got the job done vs. the Cards by running hte ball for 141 yards by committee. Pittsburgh also held Arizona to just 240 yards of offense. The Bills love slowing things down though and wearning out teams. Buffalo only averages 21.3 PPG, but it only allows 16.3. QB Josh Allen has 17 passing TD's and eight rushing. 

The pick: Note that the Bills have seen the total dip under the number in all six games they've played in as an underdog, while Pittsburgh has een the total go under in three of four as a home favorite this season. I'm banking on a classic hard-nosed, lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bills/Steelers.

The set-up: The Lakers come in off a big 113-110 road win over Miami, handing the Heat their first loss of the year. The Lakers have the best record in the NBA, but with a game at Indiana, followed by a tilt at Milwaukee, then at home to Denver before their X-Mas Day matchup at home vs. the Clippers, would anyone fault the visitors in some small way "looking past" their lowly opponent today? Note that this is a "revenge" game as well for ATL after it fell 122-101 in LA on November 19th as a 15 point underdog. 

The pick: The Hawks can't look ahead or look past anyone on any given night with their 6-20 record. ATL has lost three straight, but note that it's 8-2 ATS in its last ten after three straight losses by ten points or more (and that includes going 2-0 ATS this year.) LA on the other hand is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including only 1-3 ATS this season.) Grab the points, expect a comfortable cover.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Atlanta Hawks.

The set-up: CSUN is only 2-8 and the Pacific Tigers are 9-3, but I'm expecting a competitive battle until the final horn. CSUN comes in highly motivated after three straight losses, while Pacific comes in complacent after four straight victories. The numbers on paper firmly favor the Tigers, but as stated above, I think from a situational stand point this one sets up great for the hungry Matadors. 

The pick: Note as well that Pacific is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games, while CSUN is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. Pacific is also 0-3 ATS the last three in this series in front of the home town crowd. I think the "hungrier" team will at the very least, keep this one very tight until the final moments. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on CS Northridge.

The set-up: The Rams are 8-5 and they enter this one having won two straight. The Cowboys have lost two straight and they're now in a tie with the Eagles for the NFC East lead at 6-7. Jared Goff has looked better for the Rams over his last two games, thanks in large part to the improved play of RB Todd Gurley. But it's now do or die for the Cowboys, who come in actually having lost seven of their last ten. 

The pick: But despite that, Dallas is still in a tie for the NFC East lead heading into Week 15 with the Eagles. I think Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot can match pace with their counterparts today. I think Dallas has the better defense and I believe it'll be the more "desperate/hungry" side as well. Additionally note that LA is a poor 8-12 ATS in its last 20 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games, while Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after having lost three out of its last four SU. Look for the Cowboys to finally get back on track and expect the Rams to finally take a step back.

8* SUPER SPECIAL on the Dallas Cowboys.

The set-up: Denver still has a mathematical shot at making the playoffs, but it has to win out and also get some outside help. It's obviously never going to happen, but I love playing on highly motivated teams and clearly the visiting side fits that bill here. The Chiefs on the other hand have already clinched the division, so a minor letdown here mentally is definitely in the cards as well in my opinion. Denver comes to town on a role as well after two straight wins, most recently steam-rolling the Texans 38-24 on the road. Rookie QB Drew Lock had 300 yards vs. the Texans last week and the Chiefs' secondary is a lot worse. 

The pick: Clearly it won't be a cake walk, as KC enters having won three straight. With a tough road game in Chicago next week, KC could be caught looking past its opponent this afternoon as well. Finally note that the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points. I'm banking the Broncos fighting tooth and nail and because of that, I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: The 13-17 Habs are a big favorite at home to the 7-24 Red Wings. In fact, too big in my estimation, swinging the value to the under-valued underdog. Clearly the Wings have struggled this year, but so to has Montreal. The Canadiens don't really have a clear advantage at any position either, with both teams sport decent goaltenders (Jonathan Bernier for the Wings and Carey Price for the Canadiens) and offensive talent (Dylan Larkin for Detroit and Shea Webber for Montreal.) 

The pick: With two nights off before an extended Western Canadian road swing, the potential to get caught "looking ahead" is also present for the home side. The Wings offer fantastic value to pull off the upset here vs. the over-priced Habs.

10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Detroit Red Wings.

The set-up: 8-1 Stanford is at 3-7 San Jose State for a Saturday night non-conference matchup. I'm not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the visitors will get caught flat footed here vs. this hungry home side. SJSU has lost five straight, so motivation won't be an issue here. 

The pick: Seneca Knight has scored in double-digit in six of his last seven games for the Spartans and I predict the SJSU standout will have a big game on his home floor. The Spartans are struggling in all categories, but I think from a situational stand point this one sets up nicely for them, as the Cardinal get caught looking ahead to their game at home vs. the surging San Francisco Dons. No outright, but a comfortable cover through the back door once it's all said and done.

9* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State. 

The set-up: The 8-2 San Francisco Dons are at Cal State Fullerton to take on the 3-7 Titans. San Francisco has the much better early numbers across the board, but I think the desperate/hungry home side will give the Conference leader everything it can handle. San Fran comes in off a highly satisfying 76-64 win over Cal and I think it does indeed come in complacent here. 

The pick: Cal State on the other hand will be desperate here to pull off the upset and snap a five-game slide, most recently falling 66-55 to San Diego. San Fran though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a road favorite, while Cal State has gone 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 60 points or less in three straight games. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a war until the final horn. 

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Cal State Fullerton.

The set-up: The 7-2 Toledo Rockets are at Detroit to take on the 1-7 Titans. I think the hungry home side though will keep this one more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Rockets have won four straight, but I think that success in this case is going to lead to complacency. Detroit though has lost five in a row and I believe it comes out and throws everything it has at its non-conference opponent today in an attempt to get off the schneid. On paper the Rockets are clearly the better team, but I think they'll be in for a fight here vs. this desperate home side.

The pick: Keep your eyes on Detroit's Antoine Davis, who is averaging 24 points and five assists per game. Note as well that Toledo is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this year and only 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 80 points or more. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* DESTRUCTION on Detroit.

The set-up: For over a decade Navy domianted this series, but over the last five it's been Army that's had the decisive upper-hand. But that was then and this is now. These teams are moving in opposite directions coming into this one and I expect those trends to continue. Army finished 5-7 and it ended its campaign with a listless 52-31 road loss to Hawaii. Navy on the other hand finished 9-2 and it enters this contest on a two game win streak. 

The pick: Army averages 30.3 PPG and it allows 22.3. Navy averages 39.3 PPG and it allows 24.2. Both teams run the triple option, but Army allows 144 rushing yards per game. I think that Navy' QB Malcom Perry is going to have a big day here. Additionally note that the Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with losing records, while Army is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout from start to finish.

10* SIDE WINNER on Navy.

The set-up: My NHL GAME OF THE YEAR was on the Blues last night and they eventually pulled away for a 4-2 win over the over-rated Golden Knights. At -120, that was a gift in my opinion, as St. Louis came into that contest having lost three straight. I think this is another great "situational" play here, as I think the "gassed" Knights get overwhelmed by the offensive minded home side. Dallas is 12-4-1 at home, led by one of the top defenses in the entire league. I have a hard time seeing the "flat footed" Knights mustering any offensive attack tonight. 

The pick: Note as well that Vegas is now a a poor 4-9 (-7.4 units) this season vs. teams with winning records, while Dallas is 7-1 (+5.9 units) when playing on two days rest. The Knights are getting too much respect here, as I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay it.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Stars.

The set-up: The Hoosiers opened up the season 9-0. Then last week they lost their first Big Ten Game 84-64 to Wisconsin. This is the Hoosiers first home conference game of the year, but I think they'll come out flat here vs. this hungry 4-5 Cornhuskers side. Note that the Hoosiers have only played one ranked team so far, so their win/loss record needs to be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. Nebraska comes in off a 95-76 loss to a red hot Creighton team, but I think it bounces back here and keeps this one more competitive than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: Note as well that Indiana is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 home games following a road conference loss of 20 points or more, while Nebraska is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog of 15 points or more and off of a loss of 15 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* COACH'S CLINIC on Nebraska.

The set-up: I had a play on the Pacers in their home win over the Celtics two nights ago. I then played against the Celtics last night in their second straight contest, this time at home to the 76ers. Philly won that game and now I think the Pacers will stumble here in similar fashion vs. this desperate Hawks side. Outright upset? Possible, but in a game which I do definitely envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab up what I feel to be a generous amount of points. 

The pick: The Hawks give up a whopping 118.8 PPG, but the Pacers aren't blowing anyone away with their offense (Oladipo still sidelined with injury and while Malcolm Brogdon has been decent, offense is still Indiana's weakness.) Where the Pacers excel is on the defensive side, but Trae Young and company's strength is clearly on the offensive side (27.9 PPG average.) Finally note that Indiana is already a terrible 1-5 ATS this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while ATL is already a solid 3-1 ATS this season off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more (Hawks were just humbled in Chicago.) A three game home stretch follows this game for the Pacers, including a high-profile contest vs. the Lakers. I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and I look for the desperate/hungry home side to take advantage. Grab the points.

10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Atlanta Hawks.

The set-up: I had a big play on the Pacers last night and after a back and forth battle with Boston, the home side eventually pulled away and held on for the victory in the final moments. Some could argue that Boston got caught "looking ahead" to this game at home vs. the now division leading 76ers, but I'll argue against that. Just look at the performance of Kemba Walker, who poured in 44 points, with three rebounds and seven assists.

The pick: Philadelphia has been poor on the road and the C's have been fantastic at home this season. But all good and bad things come to an end, and I think the highly motivated 76ers come in and take advantage of this tired Boston team that laid everything on the line last night in Indiana. Note that Philly is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Boston is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back following a loss in which it allowed 100 or more points in. The situation highly favors the 76ers here.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia 76ers.

The set-up: I think at this price and considering the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, that the defending champs offer unreal value here. In fact, I feel so strongly about it, that this pick has now become my NHL game of the year! Vegas is 15-17 and the Blues are 18-13. Vegas lost 5-0 to the Rangers and then bounced back with a 5-1 win over the Blackhawks. Inconsistency from game-to-game has plagued the Knights and I believe they'll have their hands full vs. a Blues team which has dropped three straight.  

The pick: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one definitely sets up great for the hungry Blues. Also note that Las Vegas is already only 5-6 (-5.4 units) this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous contes and just 4-7 (-5.3 units) this year vs. clubs with winning records, while St. Louis is 10-6 in its last 16 after three or more straight losses, including 2-1 this year. I like Jordan Binnington to step up in this big game and for St. Louis to skate away with a comfortable victory once it's all said and done.

10* GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Blues.

The set-up: I think this is a non-conference opponent in which K-State will get caught looking past. Alabama State is just 1-7, most recently comign off a 73-59 loss to South Dakota on Monday. Tobi Ewuosho continues to lead Alabama State in scoring at 13.8 points per game, while he is also grabbing a team-high 6.3 rebounds per game. K-State is 5-3, but I think it comes out flat here after it's disappointing 73-65 loss to Marquette on December 7th. In fact, the loss ended a 33-game home winning streak vs. non-conference opponents (in the loss the Wildcats shot a season-low in field goal percentage at 32.3 percent.) 

The pick: Alabama State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games following a loss by ten or more points, while K-State is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 non-conference home games following an ATS home loss. The Wildcats have a ten day break after this game before a home contest vs. St. Louis. Alabama State is right back on the road at Boise State this weekend though. I think the hungry dog keeps this ine competitive late. Grab the points.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Alabama State.

The set-up: The Celtics have a game tomorrow night at home vs. the 76ers, who took a .5 game lead with last night's win at home over the Nuggets. Indiana though will be the more motivated side in my opinion after losing two of three. Previous to that though the Pacers had won eight of 11. Indiana also lost three of four to Boston in the regular season last year, while also getting swept by the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. Revenge is certainly a motivating factor working in favor of the home side as well. Boston averages 110.6 PPG and it allows 104.7, while Indiana averages 108.8 and it concedes 102.8. 

The pick: Note that Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off three or more straigth home wins, while Indiana is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite. I think the C's do get caught looking ahead to their game tomorrow night and I like the motivated and revenge minded home side to take advantage. Lay the point/s.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Indiana Pacers. 

The set-up: The theme of taking underdogs in this five-game report continues with the 3-6 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix are at UCF to take on the 6-2 Golden Knights. The Phoenix don't play much defense, but they're able to put points on the board with the best of them, with four players averaging in double figures. Overall the Phoenix average 73 PPG and the Knights average 82. 

The pick: But after three straight victories, I think the Knights get caught flat footed here vs. the up-tempo Phoenix, who are ranked as the 26th fastest pace out of 300 teams. Green Bay is also 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog, while UCF is only 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 65 points or less in three straight games. No outright, but decided late. Grab the points.

8* play on Wisconsin Green Bay.

The set-up: 4-5 Monmouth is hungry for a win here, but 1-6 Princeton is desperate. I like the Tigers to pull away down the stretch in front of the home town crowd once it's all said and done. This is the only favorite I'm taking in this five-game report on Tuesday night. Monmouth averages 64.7 PPG and I think it'll have its hands full with an improving Tigers' team which just fell 82-76 to Drexel (Jaelin Llewellyn led the way with 28 points and three assists.)

The pick: I'll point out that Princeton has been money in the bank for bettors in this position as well, going 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing SU record, while Monmouth is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 

8* play on Princeton.

The set-up: The Tigers' big second half push came up short in their last game, as they fell to 4-5 in their 83-67 loss to Loyola Marymount. Eli Scott led Loyola Marymount (4-5) with a triple-double (21 points, 13 assists, 13 boards) while Ivan Alipiev chipped in with 12 points and three assists. 

The pick: ULM is 18-3 in its last 21 home games, including a perfect 4-0 this season. That said I think the Warhawks have their hands full today in the I-20 Rivalry. Grambling State has four players that average in double figures and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs do indeed point to this one coming down to the wire. Therefore, let's grab the ample points provided.

8* play on Grambling State.

The set-up: St. Joe's is only 2-8 and it enters having lost seven in a row. Most recently the Hawks fell 78-66 to No. 20 ranked Villanova. Temple is 6-2 with quality victories over USC, Texas A&M and Davidson. So will the Owls get caught looking past their lowly opponent? I think in some small way they do. Temple only allows 60 PPG, but the Hawks have shown a propensity to score on the road this year already, averaging 74 PPG. Yes the Hawks have been terrible defensivel, but they catch a break here facing a Temple offense which isn't running away from anyone. 

The pick: Additionally note that St. Joes is 6-1 ATS in its last seven off a home loss, while Temple is just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 as a home favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year. I think the hungry visiting side keeps this one competitive late, so I'm grabbing the ample points.

8* play on St. Joseph's.

The set-up: Here's another "David vs. Goliath" matchup and while I'm obviously not calling for an outright upset here, I do think that the hungry 1-7 Detroit Titans can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. the 6-3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. ND looks vulnerable after two straight losses as well. Yes the Irish have beaten up on the "lesser" competition, but it's already lost to heavyweights Maryland, Boston College and North Carolina. Notre Dame is clearly the better team, but the Titans do have a stand-out in Antoine Davis, who averages 23.8 PPG. 

The pick: The Titans have responded well in this spot for bettors as well, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, while ND is just 11-21 ATS in its last 32 as a home favorite and only 2-5 ATS in all non-conference games alread this season. I like the hungry visiting side to keep this one close down the stretch.

10* play on Detroit.

The set-up: Eli Manning is back under center for the Giants, who enter at 2-10 and nothing to play for. Manning is purely playing for pride, but I think the future hall of famer is going to predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. The Eagles are on the ropes and need to basically "win out" the remainder of the season and get outside help to play the playoffs (5-7). Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has 20 TD's and seven INT's, but he's also been sacked 30 times. New York has 26 sacks. Philly only allows 91 rushing yards per game though, so the Giants' already one-dimensional offense is going to become even more so on the National Stage. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 as a home favorite, including in two of three this season. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Giants/Eagles.

The set-up: The 9-14 Detroit Pistons are in the Big Easy to take on the 6-17 Pelicans. Detroit's won three in a row, including a victory over the Pacers last time out. New Orleans on the other hand is struggling with consistency, but it clearly won't be lacking for motivation here after eight straight losses. After narrowly getting by the Pacers, I think this does indeed finally set up as a letdown spot for Detroit. Last night I had a play on the Kings and they wound up winning outright on the road vs. the Mavericks. I think this is a similar type situation here, as the Mavericks entered last night's contest as one of the hottest teams in the league and the Kings were desperate for a victory. 

The pick: Additionally note that Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four whne playing on two days rest and a poor 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory, while New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in its last ten at home in this series. I think the Pelicans finally get over the hump here vs. a complacent Pistons team that struggles on the road anyways. Lay the point/s.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans.

The set-up: Tampa's won two of three and the Isles have dropped two of three. I think the home side is worth the price of admission here as I expect a decisive victory from start to finish. Most recently the Isles fell 3-1 at Dallas on Saturday. Overall the Isles average 2.82 GPG and they concede 2.43. 

The pick: The Lightning destroyed the Wild 7-1 on Saturday and I look for the surging home side to carry that momentum over here. Overall the Bolts lead the league in scoring with 3.74 GPG on average, while allowing 3.22. The Isles are struggling on the road and I think that trend continues here vs. this red hot home side. Lay the price with confidence.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The set-up: Interesting to note, this game won't actually be played on the Dukes home court, as the UPMC Copper Fieldhouse is being renovated. Instead its at the Kerr Fitness Center ten minutes away. The Lions won't be lacking for motivation here, as they fell to Bryant, 67-65, on a last-second steal and dunk in Smithfield. Columbia got a career-high 25 points from Randy Brumant, who also had 12 boards and also 22 points from Mike Smith. The Dukes are 7-0 after a 71-58 win over VMI on Wednesday, but I think Duquesne will have its hands full here vs. a Lions team which has plenty of talent to match. 

The pick: Additionally note that Columbia is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog or pick, while the Dukes are just 9-14 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite or pick. I think the "hungrier" team catches the complacent home side flat-footed and I expect it to comfortably sneak in through the back door once it's all said and done. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Columbia.

The set-up: I could break down the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams and carefully look at every stat and each individual player and how he'll impact the play on the ice, but none of those factors are what I'm basing this pick on whatsoever. Buffalo is 3-5-2 in its last ten games and after falling 6-5 to the Canucks in OT in Vancouver just last night, I expect a predictable letdown here. 

The pick: Buffalo allows 3.33 GPG on the road and the Oilers average 3.36 GPG at home. The Sabres also already a terrible 2-5 (-3.2 units) this season when playing on back-to-back days, while Edmonton is a fantastic 9-3 (+6.2 units) in its last 12 non-conference contests. 

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Edmonton Oilers.

The set-up: Dallas is looking fantastic behind the play of 20 year old phenom Luca Doncic. Doncic has plenty of talent around him as well, but after yesterday's big win over the Pelicans, I think the home side finally gets caught complacent here. The Kings on the other hand are 8-13 and they're hungry for a victory here after three straight losses. The Kings came close though in their last one, falling 105-104 in OT to the Spurs. 

The pick: Clearly in every respect, the Mavericks are better on than the Kings on paper. But Sacramento remains competitive and it's playing its best ball of the young season right now. Additionally note that the Kings are already 8-4 ATS on the road this year and 6-2 ATS off a road loss. The Mavs on the other hand are just 5-6 ATS at home this season. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Sacramento Kings.

The set-up: Every season for the last decade or so, the Patriots will lose a couple of games and all of the pundits come out and say that Tom Brady has lost a step, or he doesn't have a good enough defense or enough weapons around him. New England has for the most part amassed its 10-2 record because of its hard-nosed defensive play, but a lot of that is due to the level of competition its faced. Brady and the offense have struggled a lot this season, including in last week's 28-22 loss to the Texans. The Chiefs have re-found their footing and enter having won two in a row, most recently destroying the Raiders 40-9. 

The pick: Unlike Brady, Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes continues to excel, so far he has almost 3,000 yards passing to go along with 20 TD's to just two INT's. New England's offense has failed to score more than 22 points in each of its last three games, so the revenge-minded Chiefs offense definitely catches a break in the second matchup. KC is also 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog, while NE is already 0-2 ATS this year in all contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Bank on Mahomes finally getting over the hump here and for the Patriots to also finally get exposed for their ineffeciencies on both sides of the ball. That said, grab the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The set-up: I think the 2-5 Thundering Herd can keep this one competitive until the final moments vs. the 6-2 Toledo Rockets. The Herd play with immediate revenge here, as they fell to Toledo 96-70 at home just last week. Marshall then lost to Akron, while Toledo defeated Cleveland State in its last trip to the court. 

The pick: The Rockets have won three straight, but I think they'll have much more of a fight on their hands vs. Taevion Kinsey and the hungry visiting side. I'll point out as well that Marshall has responded well for bettors in a "revenge" role, going 8-2 ATS in its last ten in revenging a loss where an opponent scored 85 or more points. Toledo on the other hand has struggled in this position, going 13-16 ATS in its last 29 as a home favorite or pick, including only 1-2 ATS this season. In a contest which I envision coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Marshall.

The set-up: I have the Bills at 5.5. Whether you have 5, 5.5 or 6, I love this play. So far the Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have passed almost every test this year, but I think they're in trouble here this weekend vs. this under the radar Bills team which continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers. The Ravens have a "cream puff" at home vs. the Jets next weekend, followed by games vs. the Browns and then at home vs. the Steelers. Both teams have superb defenses, so I'm calling that area a "wash." Jackson have been phenomenal, but Bills' QB Josh Allen has gotten progressively better each week as well and he's been particularly sharp over the last month. 

The pick: The road ahead though is not quite as "easy" for the Bills, who have back-to-back road games at Pittsburgh and New England. Neither of those games are going to be "easy." This game isn't going to be "easy" either, but Buffalo clearly has to be looking at this contest as a "must win" game. In fact, I'm banking on it! Of course Jackson and company really "want" to win this one, but would anyone fault the second year pro and Baltimore for finally having a "letdown" here and looking ahead to that much more winnable game at home next week? Baltimore managed the SU win over the 49ers last weekend, but not ATS. I think it stumbles here as well (additionally note that Baltimore is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 after one more loss vs. the spread, including 1-3 ATS this season, while Buffalo is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this year as an underdog.) The bottom line is that I think the Ravens do indeed finally have their letdown, while I expect Buffalo to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd. While the outright is possible, in the end let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: Memphis is 6-15 and the Jazz are 12-10. It's safe to say that neither team is too happy where it sits right now. The Grizzlies will be especially motivated here after a loss in Chicago. Utah also comes out with a chip on its shoulder after falling at home to the Lakers in their latest contest, as LA was playing the second game of a back-to-back in that one. 

The pick: Utah though has lost four of its last five, behind a stagnant offense. Both teams are determined to establish its offense early and often and I believe that's going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout today. Note as well that Memphis has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Utah has seen the total go over in three of its last four off a terrible upset loss by 20 points or more as a favorite. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Grizzlies/Jazz.

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I expect the hungry home side to go up early and to maintain throughout vs. a Kings team which enters off a hard-fought 2-1 loss in Edmonton just last night. Calgary lost six in a row, but it's since won five of its last six, including three in a row. The Flames also play with revenge here after falling 4-1 to the Kings earlier in the season. From a situational stand point, this one sets up fantastically for a lop-sided destruction in my opinoin. 

The pick: Note as well that LA is a terrible 4-10 (-4.2 units) vs. the division this year, while Calgary is 45-31 (+8.3 units) in its last 76 following a non-conference game. For all the reasons listed above, lay the 1.5 goals for the small return.

10* PUCK-lINE ULTRA DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames.

The set-up: I think the high-paced, high-flying 12-0 Ohio State Buckeyes keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Ohio State has won nine of the last ten in this series and covered in eight. Wisconsin has won four straight after dropping two in a row to these very Buckeyes, and also inexplicably to Illinois. But Ohio State has overcome every challenge so far this year and now that it's gotten this far, I expect an even more focussed effort from QB Justin Fields (37 TD's and only one pick.) Keep your eyes on RB JK Dobbins as well. 

The pick: Wisconsin averages 35.8 PPG and it only allows 14.6. QB Jack Coan has 17 TD's and four INT's. The Badgers though are only 2-4 ATS in their last six as a dog and only 1-3 ATS this year off a win by ten points or more vs. a conference rival. Ohio State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral field favorite. Look for Ohio State's experience and depth to once again prove to be too much for the Badgers to handle. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State.

The set-up: Georiga is 11-1 and LSU is 12-0. Whoever wins will be off to the College Championship round. The Tigers have a dynamic QB in Heisman Joe Burrows, who has thrown for almost 2,000 yards in his last five games alone. This is the Bulldogs third straight SEC Championship Game appearance though and I believe their experience and depth will take this contest down to the wire. Georgia QB Jake Fromm has five TD passes and zero INT's in his last two SEC Champ games vs. Auburn and Alabama. Georgia's defense is conceding only ten points per game this year as well.

The pick: Ed Oregon's team has been a big surprise this year, but I think its lack of overall experience in this big situation will in fact come back to bite it here. Georgia is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a dog, while LSU is only 1-4 ATS in its last five off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival. I think the outright is possible, but in the end I'm grabbing the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on Georgia.

The set-up: EMU is 7-1 and Detroit is just 1-6. Detroit's had a difficult early schedule, while the Eagles have had an easy go of it to open the campaign. Note that three of EMU's four wins vs. D1 teams have come by six points or less. Also note that the Eagles have allowed at least 77 points in each of their last two games. 

The pick: Detroit's first two games of the year came on the road vs. good ACC opponents. The Titans have one of the most dynamic players in the country in Antonie Davis though and I expect this team to finally show up here today. According to the Kenpom.com rankings, EMU has been the "luckiest" team so far this season and I believe that luck finally runs out here vs. this battle tested and extremely desperate home side. Grab the points.

10* MAULING on Detroit.

The set-up: I'm expecting a very defensive affair between two teams desperate for a victory. The Kings are 8-12 and the Spurs are 8-14. The Kings have lost four of their last five, behind a 19th ranked defense and a 23rd ranked offense. San Antonio is likely to be without one of its main scoring options in big man LaMarcus Aldridge, which puts even more pressure on an already stretched thin DeMar DeRozan. 

The pick: Note that the Kings have seen the total dip under in five of their last six following a road loss, while San Antonio has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a home dog. Expect a hard-nosed defensive affair and play the under.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Kings/Spurs.

The set-up: Oregon lost a game to ASU a couple of weeks ago. The Ducks likely won't be invited to the Playoff Championship with a win today, but Utah likely would. The Ducks are out to play spoiler and to pull off a big upset in the Pac 12 Championship and in a contest which I see coming down to the wire, I'm going to ultimately recommend to grab the points. Utah's only loss came against USC and since then it's been pretty much perfect, led by a tough defense. Oregon lost to Auburn in its opener and then posted nine straight wins. And with what I feel to be the best QB in the conference in Justin Hebert leading the way, I absolutely believe that the Ducks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one (also note that the Ducks rank 10th in the nation in rushing defense.) 

The pick: Utah's been unbelievable, but it's had to "bend" and not "break" a couple of times (allowing 30 points to USC and 28 to Washington.) Additionally note that the Utes are just 1-3 ATS in their last four played on a neutral field, while the Ducks are 4-1 ATS this season following a home victory. I think that matters here as I look for Oregon to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon.

The set-up: Pittsburgh had the night off to prepare for this one, while Arizona comes in content after last night's 3-1 win in Philadelphia, cooling off a red hot Flyers team. The Penguins though enter off a big shutout victory at home over the Blues and I believe they carry that momentum over here in this very favorable "spot." Yes the Coyotes have been great on the road and on the defensive end of the ice, but note that they're still averaging a terrible 2.70 GPG this season. 

The pick: Pens' goalie Matt Murray is 4-0 with a 1.23 GAA lifetime vs. Arizona as well. The Pens average 3.39 GPG and they allow 2.79. The Yotes are also a poorm1-5 in their last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. Great value on the home side.

8* DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: So why should we expect a "shootout" on the short week? Chicago isn't known for its offensive prowess and Dallas has been inconsistent on that side of the ball all year as well. Despite that though I think this number is low, as I expect these two still playoff hopeful sides to not sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Instead, I look for each to attack from start to finish. Chicago picked up a huge win over Detroit last week and at 6-6 its stil alive in the NFC playoff race. And for Dallas, it comes in off a putrid performance at home vs. the Bills and another loss here will be a major setback. At 6-6 the Cowboys still have a one game lead in the NFC East. 

The pick: Note as well that the Cowboys have already seen the total go over the number in four of five as a road favorite this year, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. These starting QB's have something to prove and if not now...when? Look for this one to go over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Boys/Bears.

The set-up: The Central Arkansas Bears won't be going down without a fight here. The Bears come in off back-to-back OT losses, most recently falling 78-72 to Prairie View A&M. Hayden Koval was a bright spot in a losing cause with 20 points and 11 boards, along with three blocked shots. 

The pick: But the Bears are still only 1-6, while the mighty Wichita State Shockers are 6-1. Simply put I believe that the home side goes up big early and then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. The Shockers are off their first loss of the year in a 75-63 setback to WVU in the championship game of the Cancun Challenge. I like the battle tested Bears to keep pace late. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Central Arkansas. 

The set-up: When I bet totals, I bet the "situation" (primiarily anyways), and in this case I expect these two hungry sides who normally struggle with offensive consistency, to instead get out and push the pace and to easily eclipse this very low number. Denver has looked good overall, but it enters off a poor performance and subsequent loss at home to the Lakers and as such, I look for it to take out its frustrations on the defensively inept Knicks. New York has difficulties scoring and now it faces the Nuggets tough defense, but clearly the home side will be out to push the pace in an attempt to get their opponent out of its comfort zone. So, situationally I think this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." 

The pick: Also note that the Nuggets have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 12 off an upset loss at home as the favorite, while the Knicks have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 13 after scoring 90 points or less in their previous outing. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the OVER Nuggets/Knicks.

The set-up: I played on the Habs in their last game, as they finally broke the slide of eight straight losses with a win over the Islanders, who had played a game the night before. Whoever Montreal starts in net tonight, and whoever Colorado starts in net, I think the home side keeps the foot on the gas here after its recent huge losing run and I expect it to once again take advantage of a team that played (and won 3-1 in Toronto), just last night. This is a great situational play and the price is great too considering. 

The pick: Despite having gone through the losing streak, the Habs are still tied with Toronto in points. Now Montreal has a big opportunity to seperate itself (note that the Habs are a solid 7-5/+2.3 units this season vs. clubs with winning records.) For all the reasons listed above, play on the Canadiens.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Montreal Canadiens. 

The set-up: The 1-7 Matadors come in off their first win of the season and I think that CSUN keeps the foot on the gas here as it travels to the Pacific Northwest. It was a quality win as well, erasing a ten-point second-half deficit to beat Fresno STate 73-72. Terrell Gomez led the way with 21 points after halftime. Portland won this game 80-77 at the Matadome last year, so the revenge factor also comes into play here (Gomez led all scorers in that one with 25 points.) 

The pick: I think the 6-1 home side comes in complacent. Most recently the Pilots held on for a 65-56 win over Incarnate Word. Portland has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six after having won four or five of its last six games. I think this one comes right down to the wire and as such, I'm grabbing the handful of points.

9* MID-MAJOR MAULING on CS Northridge.

The set-up: The Lakers come in off a hard-fought 105-96 win at Denver last night and I believe they'll be hard pressed to keep pace with the hungry and revenge minded Jazz, who return home off a poor road trip which saw them get humbled in LA vs. the Lakers. Utah's always been much better at home and with a night off to prepare for this one, I do indeed believe that from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up fantastically for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well though that despite last night's win, the Lakers are still only 4-5 ATS on the road this year. Utah is 0-2 ATS to open December, but note that it's 11-3 ATS in its last 14 after two more straight road losses. The numbers/trends and the overall situation points to a home side blowout here in my opinion.

10* REVENGE ELITE OF ELITE on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: Akron had won seven straight in this series, before Marshall took the last two. The Zips are 5-2 and the Herd are 2-4. Akron is 5-0 at home and it's two road losses have come against Louisville and WVU. Akron is ranked 168th in the country in offensive efficiency, shooting 32.7 percent. Overall the Zips concede just 62.5 PPG. 

The pick: The Herd are hungry for a big win here obviously. So far they're averaging 70.8 PPG, while allowing 73.7. Taevion Kinsey is averaging 14.8 PPG. On paper, Akron would appear to have the advantage. But I think both sides early numbers are skewed somewhat due to the level of competition. I absolutely believe though that Marshall is the "hungrier" team here. I'll point out additionally that the Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning SU record, while the Zips are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a radof favorite. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Marshall.

The set-up: I think the division leading Mavs get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. This is a revenge game for the home side after the Mavs took the first meeting of the year by a score of 123-116. But after ending the Lakers ten game win streak in LA with a 114-100 road win last time out, I do indeed feel this sets up as a "trap" for Dallas. 

The pick: The Pelicans have been dealing with injury issues since Day 1 this year, which has resulted in the sub-par record. But after five-straight losses, I think their "hunger" is the difference here. Keep your eyes on New Orleans' Brandon Ingram, who leads the team with 25.5 PPG. Additionally note that Dallas is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 off a win by ten points or more as an underdog, while New Orleans is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. While I wouldn't be shocked by the outright, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The set-up: Clearly on paper the Islanders are the better team. But after eight straight losses, I believe the Canadiens risk life and limb to secure a victory here. Montreal held a 1-0 lead for most of the game vs. the Bruins in Boston last time out, but it eventually fell apart down the stretch and lost 3-1. A week previous in Montreal they lost 8-1 to the Bruins. Over their last four games alone they've allowed almost 20 goals. The entire city of Montreal has to be on suicide watch right now.

The pick: New York though comes in off a relatively simple 4-1 win in Detroit just last night and I do believe it'll suffer a letdown here finally in this difficult road venue. I'm a "situational" handicapper "at heart" and everything points to a blowout here in my opinion. Lay the short price and look for the Habs to finally "get off the schneid" on Tuesday.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Montreal Canadiens.

The set-up: Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here and when it's all said and done, I look for this total to sail over the posted number. The Bulls have lost three straight and there's no question that they'll be pushing the pace from start to finish. The BUlls average 106.1 PPG and the Kings allow 107.6. 

The pick: The Kings went to OT with the Nuggets in their last game and ended up winning. The total in that contest still stayed under the number though. But I think that the home side builds off that win and comes out firing here as well. Note that the Kings average 104.2 PPG and the Bulls allow 110.3. Finally note that Chicago has seen the total go over in four of its last five following a SU road loss, while Sac has seen the total soar over in five of six off a close home win by three points or less. This number is low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Bulls/Kings.

The set-up: Seattle owns an 11-5 edge the last 16 in this series, including having won five straight. Clearly Minnesota has revenge on its mind. The Vikes come out of their bye in need of a win with a difficult schedule ahead. Minnesota will look to grind this one out in my opinion, as the Hawks allow 101.5 rushing yards per game and Vikes' RB Dalvin Cook already had 1,017 rushing yards and 11 TD's on the ground, along with another 455 receiving yards. 

The pick: Seattle will have seen the 49ers lose last night, so a victory here keeps it in pace for the conference title as well. The Hawks face a difficult task vs. a Vikings' defense which concedes only 94.2 RYPG. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten as a road dog, while the Hawks have seen it dip below the posted number in four of their last five after four or more straight SU victories. Two great offenses, but the situation and numbers both point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Vikes/Hawks.

The set-up: Of course I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Simply put I think the 4-2 Wildcats, who return home for this contest, are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent to their highly anticipated Big 12/Big East battle on Saturday night

The pick: K-State also looks vulnerable here after back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Bradley. Note that A&M is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games as a 22 point underdog or higher. Grab the points.

10* BEAT-DOWN on Florida A&M.

The set-up: The Wizards are 1-2 on their current four game trip and they come in off a loss to the defensive minded Lakers. The Wizards do allow 121 PPG, but the Clippers more methodical offensive pace works in our favor here considering the large spread the visitors have been afforded in this situation. Despite the defensive ineptitude, Washington remains the highest scoring team in the league as well.  

The pick: LA has plenty of talent and it will be contending for the Western Conference title at the end of the year, but the Clippers return home off a 107-97 loss to the Spurs and I think they'll come out flat here vs. their lowly non-conference opponent. Note as well that Washington is 7-3 ATS as a road dog already this year, while LA is just 7-8 ATS as a favorite. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Washington Wizards.

The set-up: The Texans are in a dog fight in the AFC South, while at 10-1 the Patriots are well on their way to defending their Super Bowl title once again. Houston comes in off a crucial win over the Colts and I think DeShaun Watson can put the pressure on Pats' QB Tom Brady, who has looked poor over the last month. Overall Brady has averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt passing. The Patriots are going to need Brady to step up here though, as several key players on the defensive side are dealing with a flu bug this week. 

The pick: Brady faces a Texans' secondary which has been ravaged by injury though, so this sets up well for the veteran to bounce back. Watson and the Texans though will smell the blood in the water and I expect the home side to come out firing here as well. Neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this year, but I believe the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this contest has this one looking like a "shootout," instead of a "chess match." Play the over.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Patriots/Texans.

The set-up: The Canadiens have lost seven in a row. They've also lost three straight home games, conceding 18 goals in that span. One of those losses was an 8-1 setback vs. the Bruins. Note that Habs' netminder Carey Price though does have a sharp 27-14-5 record and a 2.53 GAA lifetime vs. the Bruins. 

The pick: The Bruins are tops in scoring and on the defensive end of the ice. Last time out they rallied for a 3-2 OT win over the Rangers on Friday. In my opinion, considering how focussed I expect the Habs to be on the defensive end tonight, I look for this rematch to be dominated by the men between the nets (Note that Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask is currently 12-2-0 with a 2.10 GAA this season.) This number is high.

10* TOTAL PROFIT-STRIKER on the UNDER Habs/Bruins.

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories. SIU beat UNC Central, while SLU got the better of Boston College. SIU has to be feeling confident here though as it's won three of the last four in this series, including last year's contest 61-56. Overall the Salukis average 63.4 PPG and allow 38.9 percent shooting from the field. 

The pick: Saint Louis averages 72.7 PPG and it's allowing 37.8 percent shooting from the field. Southern Illinois is also 5-1 ATS in its last six after a win by 15 points or more, while Saint Louis is 0-6 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Grab the points and expect a spirited battle until the end. 

10* HIGH-ROLLER on Southern Illinois. 

The set-up: San Francisco is 10-1 and the Ravens are 9-2. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has been unbelievable, but I think the second year pro will have a difficult time today vs. the 49ers top ranked defense. Jimmy Garropolo and the 49ers come in off a complete game destruction of the Packers. 

The pick: The Ravens have looked fantastic, but I think they'll have a real fight on their hands here. San Francisco matches up extremely well with Baltimore and Kyle Shannahan has made all the right calls in the early going as head coach (note as well that SF is already 2-0 ATS this season as a road dog, while Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite. In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the San Fran 49ers.

The set-up: Utah comes in off a 35-7 road win over Arizona. At 10-1, the Utes are now getting ready to play in the Pac 12 game and while I'm obviously not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for 5-6 Colorado, which enters off one of the schools biggets upsets ever in taking down Washington 20-14 as a double-digit underdog for its second win in a row. 

The pick: I think Colorado senior QB Steven Montez can keep pace with Tyler Huntley and the home side today. Utah gets caught looking past its opponent today and I look for the hungry visiting side to take advantage and post at least the solid cover with the large spread it's been afforded tonight.  

9* PLAY-BOOK on Colorado.

The set-up: Neither team is really known for its offensive explosiveness, but for a number of different reasons I think each will combine to push this number over the posted number once it's all said and done. Denver is rolling and it'll look to keep the foot on the gas after winning ten of their last 11 and six straight. The Kings play with revenge here after falling 101-94 in Denver earlier in the season. Denver won't be rolling over though obviously after getting the better of Washington 117-104 last time out. 

The pick: Since their loss to Denver, Sacramento has scored at least 100 points in each of its last five home games. WIth revenge on their minds, I expect the hungry Kings to set the early pace and to push it from the opening tip, until the final horn. This number is a tad low, play the over.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Nuggets/Kings.

The set-up: I like the 2-5 Pirates to pull off the minor upset here, vs. 3-4 James Madison. JMU fell to Coppin State on Wednesday, while ECU was 1-2 in the Bahamas, but now coming into this contest well rested after an extended break due to the travel associated with the Tournament. The Pirates' rebounding is top 100 in the nation and it's kept them in games early. 

The pick: JMU fell 94-78 to Coppin State last time out. The Dukes allow 73 PPG, so the Pirates' offense has a big opportunity here tonight as well. ECU matches up well vs. the Dukes and note that it's 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with five of six days rest. Conversely note that this is a spot in which JMU has been a disaster for bettors, going just 7-14 ATS as a favorite. While the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on East Carolina. 

The set-up: BC won't be guaranteed a bowl game if it wins today, but at 6-6, it'll become "eligible." Pittsburgh is 7-4 on the year and it's already thinking about its bowl contest. Pitt comes in flat as well after its 28-0 loss to VT last weekend. The Eagles defense is admittedly terrible, but there are two key players out on the Pitt offense today, which leaves the door open for the BC defense to step up and perform in this crucial contest. Overall BC's 457.7 YPG on offense rank it 23rd in the country. 

The pick: Pitt was in the ACC Championship Game last year, but the Panthers won't be making a repeat in that contest this season. Last time out Panthers' QB Kenny Pickett posted a QB rating of 4.8. Panthers' are hurt here today with the absence of RB Todd Sibley Jr and WR Maurice French. Pitt's defense is going to be tested here today and note that the Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a losing road record. In a game which comes down to the wire, let's grab up all these points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Boston College.

The set-up: I base my picks on many different things, but after allowing 14 goals in two straight home losses, I believe the Habs risk life and limb today to take advantage of a Flyers team coming off a 6-1 win in Detroit just last night. Montreal has in fact lost six straight. 

The pick: For me looking at this particular contest, it's not about who is in net or on the ice, it's a great situational pick. As stated off the top, I think the Habs are going to double down on the defensive end today and I believe the Flyers are going to come in flat after last night's big win. Additionally note that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in eight of ten already this season vs. clubs with losing records, while Montreal has seen the total dip below in 11 of its last 15 after playing to three or more consecutive "overs." This number is high considering the situtational circumstances.

10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the UNDER Flyers/Habs.

The set-up: Clearly "on paper" the Clippers are the better team. LA has won seven straight, most recently holding on for a 121-119 victory at Memphis. Winning as a favorite on the road is never easy though and I think the now complacent Clippers finally have a letdown here. The Spurs lost eight in a row before a victory, but they've since dropped two more straight on the bounce. 

The pick: I think LA is as good as it appears to be at the moment, but I definitely do not believe that the Spurs are as horrible as their recent losing streak would indicate. As a situational handicapper (primarily), these are the types of games which I'm constantly on the look out for. San Antonio has a very real shot at winning this one outright in my opinion (note tht LA is a poor 2-5 ATS on the road this season and 0-2 ATS off a road victory, while San Antonio is still 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog,) but in the end I'm going to grab all the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the San Antonio Spurs.

The set-up: App State is 10-1. Troy is 5-6. At 6-6, the Trojans wouldn't even necessarily be guarateed a bowl spot, but with a victory over the Mountaineers as part of that resume, they'd almost assuredly "get the call." App State has won three straight, while Troy's two game win streak came to an end with a loss to Louisiana Lafayette last weekend. Troy though has covered its last two in this series as a double-digit dog and with a bowl berth on the line, I think the Trojans can keep this one competitive late. App State is getting balanced production on both sides of the ball, led by QB Zac Thomas. 

The pick: Troy has been much better at home than on the road (lost 53-3 at the Cajuns last weekend, but allowed an average of only 20 points in winning two straight previous home contests over South Alabama and Georgia Southern.) The Trojans won't be scared to throw here either, as QB Kaleb Barker has 3,300 passing yards this season with 30 TD's and nine picks. Note as well that App State is already 0-3 ATS this year off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, while Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road loss. Expect a war unitl the end and grab the points with the Trojans.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on Troy.

The set-up: 3-8 Bowling Green meets 6-5 Buffalo with nothing on the line. Yes the Bulls could be eligible for a slightly better bowl game with a win today, but after becoming eligible last time out, a mental lapse is inevitable in my opinion. Bowling Green is just 3-8 and can't even use the role of spoiler as motivation today. Bowling Green was killed 66-24 by Ohio last time out and I have a hard time seeing it mustering that much offense this time around. Buffalo smashed Toledo 49-30 in its last game. 

The pick: The Bulls really do need one more win to solidy their positioning, but this is a contest in which it can sit back and control the tempo. Bowling Green is a run first offense and Buffalo ranks in the top ten in stopping the rush. Also note that four of Bowling Green's five games on the road this year have fallen under the number already. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle this time around.

10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bowling Green/Buffalo.

The set-up: Normally the Saints like to dominate teams by running them off the field with their fast paced offense, but I don't think they'll run up the score here on the short week. The Falcons have major issues across the board and New Orleans is going to be able to sit back and control this one and look for the host to make the first mistake. The Saints held on for a crucial 34-31 win over Carolina last weekend and they're in the drivers seat for the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Falcons are out of contention and come in off a 35-22 loss to the Bucs last weekend. 

The pick: Note that the Saints have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 17 after a home victory, while ATL has seen the total dip below in four of five at home already this season. On the short week and on Thanksgiving night, expect these defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* play on the UNDER Saints/Falcons.

The set-up: Montreal will be risking life and limb to secure a victory today. The Canadiens have lost five in a row and enter off a humbling 8-1 home loss to Boston. New Jersey comes in having lost three of its last four. Jersey goalie Louis Domingue is 3-1-0 with a 2.86 GAA lifetime vs. Montreal. Unfortuantely for him his team is averaging only 2.52 GPG this year. 

The pick: Montreal has conceded a whopping 14 goals over its last two games and clearly all eyes will be on its defensive play tonight and on goaltender Carey Price, who is 12-13-1 with a 2.39 GAA lifetime vs. the Devils. Three of the past five in this series have fallen below the posted number and all signs once again point to a defensive affair considering the situation that each club finds itself in coming into this one. Play the under.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Devils/Canadiens.

The set-up: Mississippi State is 5-6 and it needs to win this game to become eligible. Ole Miss is 4-7 and it's now out to play the role of spoiler. The Egg Bowl looks like a "shootout" out to me this year. Mississippi comes in off a game in which its defense just allowed 58 points to LSU. 

The pick: Mississippi State completely dominated this game last year, winning 35-3. This year Ole Miss is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air, so QB Tommy Stevens is primed for a big performance on the National stage in my opinion. Note that Ole Miss has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year after playing a game at home, while Mississippi State has seen the total eclipse the number in three of four this season following a SU victory. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Mississippi/Mississippi State.

The set-up: Dallas just lost in crushing fashion to the Patriots, while the Bills enter having won three of four. Dallas is 6-5 and Buffalo is 8-3. The Bills domianted the Broncos 20-3 last weekend. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has gotten significantly better in my opinion over the last few weeks and combined with veteran RB Frank Gore, the Bills' offense is underrated. Their defense though is ranked among the best in the league, allowing only 288.6 YPG. 

The pick: The Cowboys are loaded with talent as well and while this is definitely a huge game for the team, I think they'll be pushed to the brinking once again. Note that Buffalo is already 4-0 ATS on the road this year and 2-0 ATS as a dog, while Dallas is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 14 points or less, including only 1-2 ATS this season. Grab the points.

10* play on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: USC is 5-1 and Fairfield is 1-4. USC though comes in off its first loss of the year and I think it'll still be mentally caught up on that setback. SDSU ended the Trojans five-game win skein. Overall USC averages 77.5 PPG and it allows 66.5. The Stags are averaging 64 PPG and allowing 70.2. To their credit, the Stags have played some stiff competition, most recently calling to SMU 74-55. 

The pick: Note though that the Stags have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot though already this year, going 4-1 ATS as an underdog (note that they're also 7-3 ATS in their last ten tournament contests.) USC on the other hand is just 17-21 ATS in its last 38 after playing a home game and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. schools with losing records. I'm grabbing the points.

10* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on Fairfield.

The set-up: Chicago got the better of Detroit 23-16 last year. You'll often hear players that have to play on Thanksgiving that they "take it differently" or it means more etc. Despite their win/loss record of just 3-7, the Lions have a chance to knock the Bears out of playoff contention with a victory today. Detroit's also out to avenge a 23-16 loss last November and a 20-13 road setback in Chicago on November 10th. The Bears clearly won't be going down without a fight after they clawed their way to an ugly 19-14 win over the Giants at home last weekend. 

The pick: Whether the Lions go with Jeff Driskell or David Blough, the game-plan will be the same; throw the ball early and often. The Lions rely on their passing game to generate offense, averaging 289.5 receiving yards per game. There doesn't have to be much scoring for this total to over the number. The Bears' Trubisky has already beaten Detroit this year and I think he also pushes the pace. This one has "over" written all over it.

8* play on the OVER Bears/Lions.

The set-up: The Raptors are dominating with Paskall Siakim and Fred VanFleet running the show. Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry are still sidelined with minor injuries, but Toronto just keeps on finding ways to win. Most recently the Raptors dominated their second half game at home vs. the 76ers and pulled away for the 101-96 victory. The Knicks won't be going down with a fight here though as they suffered another slim loss to the Nets last time out, falling 103-101. New York has lost three in a row and four of five. With upcoming games vs. Philly, Boston, Milwaukee and Denver, the Knicks' road ahead isn't getting any easier. 

The pick: Toronto has a game in Orlando on Friday, followed by home contests vs. Utah, Miami and Houston. After its emotional victory over Philly, would anyone fault the home side for looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? The trends support our theory as well, as note that the Knicks are a sharp 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road dog, while Toronto is a poor 7-11 ATS in its last 18 off a home win vs. a division rival. No outright upset, but decided in the final moments. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

The set-up: I think this is a good spot to lay a mid sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The Bruins just destroyed the Habs in Montreal 8-1 last night and I think that a predictable letdown is very possible in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. 

The pick: The Sens have looked a lot better of late too, as their three-game streak came to an end in a 1-0 loss to the Jackets on Monday. Note as well that they're 7-4-0 on their own ice. Also note that Boston is just 4-5 (-3.5 units) vs. the division this season. The Bruins clearly have the better numbers, but I think the situation favors an upset. That said, the reasonable mid sized price for the extra 1.5 goals is the correct call in my opinoin. 

10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Ottawa Senators.

The set-up: Niagara won't be lacking for motivation here as it searches for its first win of the season. Most recently NU fell 73-62 to Bryan on November 18th. The Purple Eagles though play six of their next seven on the road, so there's no question that they'll be out to get off on the "right foot" here. They're also desperate to get off the schneid. They came close vs. Stephen F. Austin, shooting 55 percent from the floor for the first time since 2018, while James Towns had 21 points in a losing cause to Bryant most recently. And with tough games vs. Syracuse, Rutgers, Buffalo and St. Bonaventure, the Purple Eagles will be out to score the upset vs. this "lesser" competition. 

The pick: The Fort Wayne Mastadons are 3-5 this year, including 3-0 at home. Their victories come over suspect competition though and note that they're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven after a blowout win by 20 points or more. Conversely note that Niagara is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including 2-0 this year.) In a contest which I see being decided in the final moments, I'll gladly grab all these points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Niagara.

The set-up: These two red hot Western Conference heavy weights collide and I believe that points will be at a premium. The Clippers have won five straight and the Mavericks have won five straight. LA has plenty of offensive weaponry, including Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Mavericks have plenty of offense talent as well, centered around star Luka Doncic. I think though that LA will look to control this game while on offense and to not turn it into a wide open shootout. I expect the visitors to contest everything with full court pressure. 

The pick: Note as well that LA has failed to score 100+ points in two of its last three road games. Also note that Dallas managed to keep the opponents to 110 or fewer points in each of its previous six games at home. I expect a competitive, but lower-scoring affair in this one.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks.

The set-up: Montreal skated to a 5-4 win in Boston two weeks ago, but I think this re-match will be a classic "goaltenders battle." Boston's won five of the last six in this series North of the Border, but it comes in having lost two straight in it. Boston has won three straight coming into this one, while Montreal has lost four in a row. Jaroslav Halak is expected in net for the visiting side and he's 4-1-3 with a 2.56 GAA, while Montreal's Carey Price is 10-6-3 with a 2.89 GAA. 

The pick: Boston has seen the total go under in 42 of its last 62 after alowing four or more goals in its previous contest, while Montreal has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after three or more consecutive losses. This number is high.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bruins/Canadiens.

The set-up: Ohio has everything to play for here at 5-6, but I look for the home side to make it tougher on the Bobcats than what this spread would suggest. The Zips don't want to go winless this year and last week they almost pulled off a massie upset, but they'd eventually fall 20-17 to Miami Ohio. Ohio is the much better team on paper, but the Zips have been playing much better of late and I like that progression (on both sides of the ball), to carry over in their final game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Additionally note that Ohio is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a double digit road victory. Akron on the other hand is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a cover where it last as the underdog. A great situational play in my opinion. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Akron.

The set-up: Western Illinois scored its first win of the season in a 113-62 destruction of lowly Central Christian Bible College and while today's opponent is obviously significantly better, I still think the Leathernecks can carry that momentum over here and keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Dre' Shawn Allen would go on to lead all scorers with a career-high 17 points in the victory. 

The pick: Ball State is coming off a 100-69 victory over Howard. Note that the Leathernecks won't be intimidated here though, as they have already played another MAC team this year, falling 86-81 to Northern Illinois in a tight affair just last week. Expect a similar final combined score here as well once it's all said and done. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Western Illinois.

The set-up: The Ravens have a firm grip on the AFC North at 8-2. Baltimore comes in having won five straight, but I think it'll have its hands full with this desperate home side, which must now win tonight after both Seattle and San Francisco prevailed. The Rams made it to the Super Bowl last year, but if they don't win this game tonight, then they won't have the opportunity to try and do it again. 

The pick: LA only allows 89 rushing yards per game and the Ravens count on RB Mark Ingram to open things up for Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson's been having a great year, but note that he's been sacked 18 times this year and LA already has 29 sacks under its belt. LA has actually won three of its last five, most recently a 17-7 victory over Chicago. Note as well that the Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory, while Baltimore is a poor 12-16 ATS in its last 28 as a favorite. In a game which comes down to the wire, let's grab the points.

10* BLOOD-BATH on the Rams.

The set-up: The Blues are 14-5-5 overall and 7-3-1 on the road. They come in off a 4-2 loss at home to these very Predators. Nashville though had lost six in a row previous to that victory, so to say that it was "desperate" would be an understatement. Now back home after its disastrous stretch and fresh off a victory which "got the money off their backs," I think the Predators do indeed suffer a predictable letdown here. St. Louis will be using the recent loss as motivation here and I expect it deliver. Situationally it sets up great for the visitors. 

The pick: But note as well that Nashville is 0-6 in its last six as the favorite, while St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine in revenging an in season loss of two goals or more vs. an opponent. In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Blues.

The set-up: This is the first meeting of the year between these clubs. Orlando has lost two in a row, while Detroit has lost four of five. The Magic's offense revolves around big man Nikola Vucevic, but he sprained his ankle in a loss to the Raptors most recently and he won't be playing tonight. Most recently the Magice fell 111-106 in Indiana, but I think this offense will struggle to reach the century mark in Detroit. The Pistons are desperate for a win, but they're also "dog tired," as this is the fourth game in six nights for Detroit. The last thing the Pistons want to do is turn this one into a "track meet" with the younger Magic. Instead, expect a lot of half court sets from the home side while on offense. From a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up well as a lower-scoring game. 

The pick: But note as well that Orlando has seen the total dip below the posted number in 15 of its last 24 after two or more consecutive road losses, while Detroit has seen the total dip under in 24 of its last 35 after having lost four of its last five overall. In my opinion, this one definitely screams "under." 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Magic/Pistons.

The set-up: Winnipeg was 7-2 when QB Matt Nichols went down with injury this season. Zach Collaros has filled in admirably since then though and I think the QB will be pivotal in helping push this total over the number. Collaros has won all three starts with his new team (averaging 9.2 yards per attempt) while compiling a quarterback rating of 109. But the Bombers are equally adept with running the ball, averaging a league-high 148 rushing yards per game. 

The pick: The Ti-Cats return to the big game for the first time since 2014. Several of those players on that team that lost to the Stamps are suiting up today as well. Hamilton won a franchise record 15 games this year thanks in large part to QB Dane Evans, who has 17 TD's and eight INT's over his last eight games (last week Evans had 386 yards passing in his teams 36-16 win over Edmonton.) I believe these two competent QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER in the Grey Cup.

The set-up: New England is 9-1, while the Cowboys are 6-4. This is a season-defining game for Dallas and I think it'll find a way to pull off the outright upset. New England's defense has been great, but the offense has been poor. Tom Brady looks as if he's definitely lost a step this year and facing this aggressive Cowboys' defense, I think he and his line will get exposed here. I'll also argue that the Patriots' opponents have been sub-par so far to open the season, so their defensive numbers are skewed in my opinion. 

The pick: The Dallas defense is ranked seventh in the NFL and I look for it to be a difference maker today. I also like Dak Prescott to push the pace and to get the better of Tom Brady. In my opinion, the stage is set for a big upset. 

8* play on the Cowboys on the MONEY LINE.

The set-up: The Steelers are coming off a loss to the Browns. Pittsburgh's season is on the line here and while the 0-10 Bengals may not win this one outright, I do think the home side catches the right team at the right time to pull out its first victory. Pittsburgh is better than Cincinnati in two of three phases, but I certainly think that its QB Mason Rudolph is a major liability. Last week Rudolph threw four INT's. Also note that Pittsburgh is dealin with injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster and RB James Conner. And to make matters worse, the Steelers lost center Maurkice Pouncey after last week's brawl with the Browns. Pittsburgh has had to deal with plenty of off-field distractions this week and I believe all of these add up to a major "letdown" here this weekend. 

The pick: Joe Mixon and the Bengals won't be going down without a fight today. Note as well that the Bengals are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games, while the Steelers are only 3-7 ATS in their last ten as a road favorite. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Bengals.

The set-up: The Browns faced some stiff competition over the first half of the season, but they remain in the playoff picture after last week's win over the Steelers. Cleveland will now look to take advantage of a Dolphins team which has struggled on the road this year. The Fish are 2-8 overall, most recently getting crushed 37-20 at home by the Bills. Dolphins' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has some arm injuries coming into this one. He's been sacked 24 times this year and the Browns have posted 30 sacks this season. 

The pick: The Browns have won two in a row, and while they'll be without Myles Garrett on the defensive side of the ball, the good news is that the Browns are healthier now than they've ever been before. OBJ is primed for a big game here in my opinion, as I look for Baker Mayfield and company to push the pace from start to finish. Note as well that Miami is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 as a road dog, while Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a home victory. Lay the points, expect a blowout!

8* play on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: In the past this feels like a spot in which the Raiders would classically "crap the bed." But I think this Raiders team is "different" this season. Oakland has EVERYTHING to play for here, now tied with the Chiefs for the AFC West lead after handling the Bengals last weekend. Oakland's defense has been stout and it'll be out to get after Jets' QB Sam Darnold, whose offensive line is ranked 26th in the league. RB Josh Jacobs is a question mark for Oakland, but look for QB Derek Carr to take advantage of this Jets' secondary which allows over 270 passing yards per game. 

The pick: Darnold doesn't have a lot to work with and his offensive line is atrocious. Additionally note that the Jets are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight vs. the AFC, while Oakland is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after one or more straight loss vs. the spread. No upsets here, expect a decisive win and cover.

8* play on the Raiders.

The set-up: SMU is 4-0 after narrowly getting by Evansville last time out. UNLV is 2-4 after falling to Texas State in its last game. The Mustangs had to hold on for dear life vs. the Purple Aces, prevailing 59-57, but I think they'll have their hands full here today from this hungry UNLV side. Tyson Jolly leads SMU with 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but note that the Mustangs commit 15 turnovers a night. 

The pick: Amauri Hardy led the Rebels with 18 points in a losing cause last time out. These team's offensive and defensive numbers are pretty close, but I think UNLV comes in as the "hungrier" team here. SMU is also a terrible 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite (and 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite overall), while UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a home favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on the home side.

10* PLAY-BOOK on UNLV.

The set-up: Washington is 6-4 and bowl eligible, while Colorado is 4-6 and desperate for a vitory here to keep its chances alive awith only two games to play. Washington has been hit or miss this year, as losses to Utah and Oregon State is expected, while a setback to the Cal is now considered a poor one. 

The pick: Colorado has some big wins over Nebraska and Arizona State, but it's also been extremely inconsistent from game to game as well. But the Buffs have been a "different" team at home, having beaten Nebraska and Stanford (and they haven't suffered a home setback by more than one score.) Also note that Colorado QB Steven Montez has a 139 passer rating at home with ten TD's and three INT's, compared to a 109.6 rating on the road with a 4:7 TD:INT. At home the Buffs are averaging 11.5 more points per game on offense (26.8 at home vs. 15.3 on the road) and allowing 8.2 fewer points per game on the defensive side. I won't call for the outright, but the stage is certainly set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado.

The set-up: I think the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one will ultimately push this total over the posted number once it's all said and done. The Predators are desperate after losing eight of their last nine games. Unfortunately though they've allowed at least five goals in three of their last four games. Now they face the defending champs, who after a three-game losing streak, have turned things around with two straight victories (most recently beating Calgary 5-0.) 

The pick: The Blues have only given up one goal over their last two home games, but I think St. Louis will have its hands full here from what I expect to be an extremely attacking Nashville side. Clearly the Predators will be out to dictate the pace. Note as well that Nashville has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of four already this season after three straight games at home, while St. Louis has seen the total fly over in seven of its last ten vs. teams with losing records. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL NET PROFITS on the OVER Preds/Blues.

The set-up: In a game which I think will be decided late or in extra time, I'm going to suggest laying the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Calgary comes in desperate after losing six straight. We don't have to question the Flames' focus or resolve here and I believe that's important in our selection on the PUCK-LINE today. The Flyers on the other hand look poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after they broke a five-game slide vs. a win over the Canes on the road in their last outing. 

The pick: Additionally note that Calgary is a solid 5-3 (+1.8 units) this season in non-conference games and 6-3 (+2.7 units) after allowing four or more goals, while Philadelphia is a poor 5-6 (-1.2 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on Calgary with the spread.

6* DESTRUCTION on the Flames on the PUCK LINE.

The set-up: Both teams are eligible for a bowl. Liberty is 6-4 and Virginia is 7-3. I'm expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game between these two non-conference opponents, each looking to improve its bowl positioning. The Cavs won this game last year, but neither team was able to break the 400 yard barrier on the offensive side. Virginia also has to be wary here not to "look ahead" to its game vs. Virginia Tech in its regular season finale (note that three of Virginia's last five wins came by single digits.) 

The pick: Liberty QB Stephen Calvert has 23 TD's and just three INT's this season, but I think he'll have a difficult time here from this aggressive Virginia pass rush that can not afford to look past its opponent today. Note as well that Liberty has seen the total dip under the number in all four games it's played in already this year as the underdog, while Virginia has seen the total dip below in its last four after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This total is a tad high.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Liberty/Virginia.