The 3-1 Cowboys face the 2-2 Rams in LA, with the usual huge hooplah surrounding these two teams. Dallas is a 5 1/2 point underdog. Is this the week that Stafford starts to show his worth in 2022? Against a very tough Dallas pass defense, I have my doubts. The Rams are 29th in points scored, averaging less than the Cowboys sans Dak. Cooper Rush is 15 points higher in average QB rating, has been sacked just 4 times, and has yet to give up a pick. Stafford has been sacked 16 times and has 6 interceptions to date. Add to that an unwillingness to throw to more than 2 receivers.

The Cowboys’ defense struggles against the run, but the Rams hardly have a running game, and are sitting 30th in rushing yards. The Cowboys are top five in QB pressure, and 2nd in fewest yards per pass attempt. It could be more of the same for Stafford this week, after being pushed around by the 49ers last week. The Rams’ O-line has multiple injury issues at the moment.

Can the Dallas Cowboys offense produce points against the Rams? First off, they may not need that many. They have solid options at running back with Pollard and Elliott, averaging over 100yds a game. Rush now has a few games under his bet and has shown marked improvement. He threw for 223 yards and a 107 QB rating last week, not bad for a back up. There are flaws in this version of the Rams, and injuries aren’t helping. I am on the Cowboys and the Cowboys’ defense on Sunday. Take them at +5.5, although an outright win would not surprise me. 9*!

The 1-3 Saints face the 2-2 Seahawks in new Orleans on Sunday. The Seahawks put up a whopping 48 points against Detroit, but gave back almost as many on defense. Geno Smith is the darling of Seattle , with comparisons to Wilson in his prime. He is a surprising 3rd in passer rating for the season, has been remarkably accurate, and appears to be settling in as a solid option. He has a good running back in Penny, terrific targets, and has had time to operate. The Seahawks are 5th in sacks allowed. New Orleans doesn’t blitz frequently, and are not strong in pressuring QBs, just 23rd in sacks to date. They gave up 263 yards to Cousins last week, but otherwise have limited teams in passing yards. They are just 20th in rushing yards allowed. They have not proved to be as dominant a defense as might have been expected to date.

Dalton was fine last week against a bottom-third Vikings defense. Kamara should be back with Ingram this week. The Saints managed 25 (nearly 28) points vs the Vikings, and have a great opportunity to score more against a highly suspect Seahawks defense. Seattle is in the bottom third in most of the league’s defensive categories, including points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, and makes most passers look like stars.

Both teams should move the ball well, and while the Seahawks scoring another 48 against the Saints is unlikely, New Orleans has an opportunity to set a season high for points against Seattle this week. Take this game to go over.

It’s been a disappointing start to the Premier League season for West Ham. But the Hammers can certainly recover and I expect them to pick up all three points Sunday when they host Fulham. 

Fulham was promoted back into the Premier League this season and after a respectable start, they’ve predictably regressed. An early red card doomed them against Newcastle United last week and the Cottagers ended up coming out on the wrong side of a 4-1 defeat. Their lone goal came late (88’) when the match was already long decided. 

Meanwhile, West Ham beat Wolverhampton 2-0 last week. They are still just one point above the relegation zone however, so recording back to back Premier League wins for the first time this season would be a huge boost.

The Hammers were also successful in the Europa Conference League during the week, beating Anderlecht 1-0. While they are now dealing with a quicker turnaround between fixtures, I don’t anticipate that being a problem.

Fulham is actually pretty low in expected points (18th), so they’ve been a bit lucky so far. West Ham is pretty middle of the pack in expected points, so they’ve been unlucky. No Premier League side has been worse when it comes to expected goals allowed than has Fulham, who hasn’t been nearly as good on their travels and will probably be without Mitrovic. 10*

With Colorado State pulling an outright upset last night, there are only three teams left in College Football without an ATS win. Two reside out in the Pac 12. One of them is Stanford. I am taking the Cardinal plus the points at home in this late Saturday matchup.

Oregon State QB Chance Nolan is questionable to play here. The way he’s turned the ball over the last two games, perhaps the Beavers feel they’d be better off without him. In the losses to USC and Utah, OSU finished -8 in the turnover battle. Tough to win when that happens.

But when you’re Oregon State, it’s tough to win on the road, whether you are turning the ball over or not. The Beavers aren’t just 0-3 ATS as road chalk the last three seasons, they’ve lost all three games outright! And they are just 2-8 SU their L10 road games overall after getting beat 42-16 at Utah last week.

Stanford should not be confused with either USC or Utah, the two teams that beat OSU, but the Beavers aren’t USC, Washington and Oregon, who are the three teams that beat the Cardinal. That’s especially true if the road team has to turn to a backup QB. 

Eventually Stanford has to cover a spread, right? Going back to last year, it’s an inexplicable 0-10 ATS run. They are also due for some better turnover luck and sure enough here comes a team that’s given it away eight times in the last two games. Weird things happen in “Pac 12 After Dark” and I give the home team an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset here. 9*

The Padres continued their season-long dominance of the Mets on Friday.  I underestimated Darvish, based on his past play-off record, and lost yesterday.  San Diego is a very good road team, and today’s starter is also a better pitcher on the road.  Left-hander Snell had a strong finish this year, with a 1.76 ERA over his last 7 games, and just 1 run given up in his last three appearances.  Snell has certainly been here before and has the opportunity to finally to come through for the Padres.
DeGrom is on the mound for the Mets.  He has given up more runs (and home runs) than expected in his last 4 starts, with an ERA of over 4.00 in his last 4 starts.  He has had finger issues, and hasn’t pitched in over a week,  so will be well rested.  He will likely be on a short leash should the finger issue flare up.
The Mets have a solid edge on offense, and are in the proverbial “backs to the wall” situation.   They are not as strong offensively against left-handed pitching however, dropping to mid-pack for the season. The Padres have the momentum, and a real chance to make a mark in the play-offs. Both teams have solid bullpens, lightly used yesterday.  Snell is the Padres’ best chance to win this series, and while they are a considerable underdog today, I expect them to either steal another game or at least stay close today. Take the Padres on the run line at +1 1/2.  9*!

Kentucky has a big question mark at quarterback as Will Levis (foot) is listed as a game-time decision. Regardless if Levis plays, I am taking South Carolina plus the points here.

The last time we saw Levis, he was coughing up two key fumbles in the red zone last week against Ole Miss. The Wildcats ended up suffering their first loss and the SEC schedule will only get tougher from here on out. 

South Carolina seems revitalized after two straight 50+ point efforts. Granted, the competition was not tantamount to what they’ll face in the SEC. But the Gamecocks now have a lot of confidence heading into Lexington and are the healthier of these two teams. 

Kentucky is not exactly the most impressive 4-1 team in the country to begin with and certainly not the 13th best team in the country. They had to come from behind to win at Florida, couldn’t shake Northern Illinois and even wins over Miami OH and Youngstown State weren’t as dominant as the final scores indicate. Now they may be without their starting QB.

The way this line has been bet certainly tells me that Levis probably isn’t going to play. Either way, take the points with an improving South Carolina outfit. Don’t forget about their QB Spencer Rattler. When not facing Georgia, the Gamecocks have scored at least 30 in every game this season. 10*

The Guardians came a way with a victory in Game one, when the Rays couldn’t score more than a single run. This is not a new phenomenon; they managed just 1 or less runs in 6 of their last 9 games, and are hitting just .157 against right-handers in that time. The Rays runs for/against is an unhealthy 2.3/3.7, compared to the Guardians’ 4.6/2.85. The Guardians are also hitting a robust .286 against right-handers of late.

Glasnow has pitched well in his only 2 games of the season, but lasted just 3+ inning in each, and Tampa was unable to capitalize either time. He may pitch longer, but in game two of the wild card series everyone is available in relief. Triston MacKenzie starts for the Guardians. He out-dueled Glasnow and the Rays in a 2-1 victory just last week. MacKenzie has been all but unhittable at times this season, and can also pitch for length. Yogi Berra probably said something to the effect of “If you can’t score, you can’t win.” These words seem particularly applicable to the Rays at the moment. My money is on Cleveland, at home, to finish the Rays off in Game Two.

So depending on what your closing number was for Michigan-UConn (either 58.5 or 59), the 4th ranked Wolverines are either 4-0-1 to the Under or 4-1. They won that UConn game 59-0. Each of Michigan’s first four games saw at least 58 total points scored. Then they played Iowa last week and it was 27-14.

So save for Iowa, this number is right in line with how previous Michigan games have ended up. The thing is, the Wolverines have played some terrible offenses thus far. Maryland would be the exception and they put up 27 on Jim Harbaugh’s defense. 

While I don’t think Indiana is going to challenge Michigan for an outright upset, I do see the Hoosiers putting up a decent number of points. This is because they play at the fastest tempo in the entire country, running a play every 17.5 seconds. Additionally, IU throws it at one of the highest rates in the country. As they are likely to be trailing most of this game, there’s no doubt QB Bazelak will be airing it out Saturday.

Michigan is scoring 45.4 points/game and should have no problem moving the ball against the Indiana defense, which has allowed 110 points in the last three games. JJ McCarthy is looking good at QB in Ann Arbor and even against Iowa’s good defense, the Wolverines averaged five yards/play.

Looking at the spread, all we need is three touchdowns from Indiana in this game to likely hit the Over. They have scored 21 or more in every game this year. Michigan’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. Take the Over. 10* 

Tennessee arrives in Baton Rouge ranked #8 in the country and fresh off a bye. But the 4-0 Volunteers are about to face their toughest test to date in the form of a LSU team that is a missed extra point away from being 5-0.

Since losing the opener to Florida State, Brian Kelly has really turned the Tigers around. Now should they have won last week at Auburn? Probably not! But picking up a big road win like that can do wonders for a team. 

QB Daniels is ready to go this week for LSU as is a defense that should offer plenty of resistance to Tennessee’s high-powered offense. Remember that the last time we saw the Vols, they barely escaped Florida, at home. It was a 38-33 final and UT gave up almost 600 yards.

That wasn’t Tennessee’s first close call either. They only won at Pitt by seven and needed OT to do so. This is by no means an impervious outfit coming out of Knoxville, despite the presence of QB Hendon Hooker. 

Here in Baton Rouge, LSU has already beaten a very good Mississippi State team. That’s a better win than anything on Tennessee’s resume. The Vols don’t come here to Baton Rouge often (last visit was 2010) and haven’t beaten LSU in more than 15 years. LSU is 4-0 SU/ATS L4 hosting the SEC East. 8* 

This UNLV-San Jose State matchup on Friday night should turn into a shootout, even with the Rebels down two of their top three receivers.

Just five weeks into the season, UNLV has doubled its win total from the previous two years. Their best way to attack the San Jose State defense in this one would be via the run as the Spartans allow 152 yards/game on the ground, 80th in the country. One of SJSU’s best defenders, Noah Wright, left last week’s game on a stretcher. So UNLV shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball in this one.

So far the Rebels are putting up an average of 37.8 points/game. They’ve scored at least 31 on everyone besides California.

But SJSU’s offense has come around with 67 points in wins over Western Michigan and Wyoming the last two games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been quite effective for the Spartans, throwing for more than 1,000 yards so far and adding another 180 on the ground. Last week, New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick was able to run for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Cordeiro should have a big game.

But UNLV QB Brumfield is pretty good too. This could easily be a game where both teams score 30-plus points. The Over is 15-1 in the Rebels’ last 16 Friday games and cashed last week against New Mexico. The offenses are better than the defenses in this one, so let’s play accordingly. 10*

The Padres have had the Mets’ number this year, victorious in 4 of 5 games, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Mets are also just 5-5 of late, and were swept by the Braves, before turning the tables on the Nationals. Game 1 of the Padres/Mets wildcard series features 2 fine veteran starters. Darvish is off a great season and was Pitcher of the Month in September. He has been remarkably consistent, pitching 6 innings or more in all but two of his 30 starts. He had 3 shutouts in September, and an ERA for the month of 1.55. He has beaten the Mets twice this year, allowing just 1 run in 14 innings. Darvish is not quite as good on the road.

Scherzer has had a light schedule, pitching just 4 times in September and October, so will be well rested. He was roughed up a bit in his last start vs. the Braves, but was very good in September with an ERA of 1.06 and an opposing batting avg. of .127. He is very good when pitching at home.

On offense the Mets have a solid edge. They are best in the league over the last two weeks, .291/.810 compared to the Padres’ .253/.710. The Padres hit much better on the road, but the Mets are very tough on right-handers.

The elephant in the room is Darvish’s very poor post season record (2-5, 5.18). Scherzer has been a good bet in post-season. The Mets have a pair of very hot top ten hitters over the last 2 weeks, and the best closer in baseball. In spite of Darvish’s fine season and the Padres’ strong record vs. the Mets this year, I am wagering on the home team. Mets to win.

Game One of the Mariners/Jays wild card series pits righty vs. righty, Castillo against Manoah, in what should be a pitchers’ duel. The Mariners have swept the Jays this year; those four straight losses to Seattle were the Jays’ low point, resulting in a management change. The two teams are 2nd and 3rd in MLB offense over the last two weeks, although it is not as close as it sounds. The Jays have a considerable edge recently and for the season. The Jays are very tough on right-handed pitching.

Castillo had been scuffling a bit, with an ERA of over 5.00 in his last three starts, but rebounded with a 6 inning, 2 run outing last time out. He held the Jays to the same line when he faced them in May.

The Jays’ Manoah has been very sharp L7 and has given up just 1 run over 19 innings in his last three appearances. He pitched into the eighth, giving up 2 runs when he last faced the Mariners.

The Mariners have an excellent bullpen but they have given up more runs than expected lately, against sub-.500 teams. The Jays’ pen is solid when called upon for a couple of innings but can struggle past that.

Manoah has been very impressive down the stretch, and gets the nod in game one. The Jays also have the edge on offense, and are a much better team when playing at home. Take the home team Jays to win game one.

The 30th and 31st-best scoring offenses meet for the fifth week of Thursday Night Football.  Injuries have compromised both teams' running games, Wilson is sore, and the Colts defense has take a pair of hits.  Is Ryan starting to look more comfortable?  He was better last week, but that was against arguably the worst team in pass defense.  The Colts' offensive line has struggled and could be worse this week.  Ryan has been sacked at the league maximum, with five interceptions and a ton of fumbles to date.  

The Broncos have been tough on passers; 5th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in passing TDs allowed, and with strong QB pressure, 6th in sacks. Their rush defense broke down inexplicably last week, but the Colts' rush attack has been surprisingly unimpressive to date, and now is missing Taylor.  Wilson is a trooper, and looked much better last week, finishing with a very high passer rating.  The Colts are not such a threat to pressure Wilson, and he is also far more mobile than Ryan.  The Broncos at least have a plan B for a rush attack, and if anyone should be worried about fumbles, it is the Colts.

A line of -3 is available for Denver, and anything under that is a bonus.  I am on the Broncos to bounce back, win and cover.

This game was supposed to be played last Saturday, then Sunday, but Hurricane Ian pushed it back to Wednesday night. SMU is 2-2 after suffering two straight losses while UCF is 3-1 after a win over Georgia Tech. Both offenses are potent in their own ways (SMU - passing, UCF - rushing), but I believe we’re in for a surprisingly “low-scoring” game tonight. By “low-scoring,” I mean Under is the play here.

UCF only racked up 333 total yards against a bad Georgia Tech team in its last game. Take away a blocked punt return and the Golden Knights scored just one touchdown in the game. They’ll mainly look to run the ball in this game, which means the clock is going to keep moving and that’s friendly to the Under cashing.

Now SMU is a pass-heavy offense. But they are likely to encounter some resistance from a UCF defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in any contest this year. The Golden Knights are giving up just 13.5 points/game. I do expect them to allow a season-high tonight, but not enough where this game goes Over.

Only one of UCF’s four games so far would have eclipsed tonight’s total and that was the opener vs. FCS South Carolina State where the Knights hung 56 on the board themselves. We won’t see that kind of offensive effort from them here, trust me. Against their two toughest foes - Louisville and Georgia Tech - the offense has produced just three total offensive touchdowns. This is the highest O/U line for any UCF game this season. 

Similarly, only one of SMU’s previous four games would have made it past tonight’s O/U line. That was the last one, against TCU, and we all saw (against Oklahoma) how good the Horned Frogs offense is. Play the Under. 10*

The Cubs have lost two straight to the Reds, after a 7 game win streak. Runs have been scarce in the series, just 6 total in the first 2 meetings. I played on Wednesday’s pitchers successfully last week. Cubs’ starter Sampson continued his stellar stretch run, pitching 7 strong innings of one run ball. His ERA is a very sharp 1.70 in his last 7 starts. I expect him to finish strongly and will remember him for next year.

Reds’ starter Ashcraft lasted just 2+ innings against the Cubs, giving up 5 runs. His starts have been going in the wrong direction, allowing more runs in shorter starts.

Neither teams is hitting, with both averaging well under .200 lately. This may be the Cubs’ opportunity to break out. They got to Ashcraft early and went on to their biggest win in some time, finishing 6-1. I expect a similar result on Wednesday. Take the Cubs to win.

Last night’s 4-3 loss to the Tigers resigns the Mariners to being a road team in the Wild Card Round where they will travel to face either Toronto or Cleveland. The M’s currently have a 1.5 game lead over the Rays for the fifth seed, which would mean a matchup with Toronto. Looking to bounce back Tuesday, Seattle has shuffled its starting rotation and I like them to win the first game of this doubleheader. 

Detroit has been a decent “spoiler” down the stretch and by winning 11 of its last 13 games, they’ve already ensured they won’t lose 100 games. Unless they lose out and Kansas City wins out, the Tigers won’t finish in the basement of the AL Central either.

It was going to be Marco Gonzales starting this first game for Seattle, but that’s been changed to Chris Flexen and the nightcap will now be a bullpen game. Flexen hasn’t actually started a game since 8/6, but has made one relief appearance against the Tigers since then. Detroit has one of the weakest lineups in all of baseball, ranking last in runs, last in slugging and 29th (next to last) in OBP. I expect Flexen to turn in a strong outing here.

Can’t say the same for the Tigers’ Eduardo Rodriguez though. He got bombed for six runs in a 7-0 loss to Seattle back on Sept 1. While Rodriguez has posted three consecutive quality starts coming into this game, a fourth would be surprising seeing as how he has a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the year.

Seattle can wrap up the 5-seed with a sweep today. So look for them to come out strong and take this first game of the doubleheader. Detroit is just 9-19 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year. 9*

MNF week 4 brings us the next installment in the Rams/49ers’ rivalry. So what has the home team done well to date? Sterling defense in all three games; they’ve limited points and yards, have a great pass defense, and solid run defense. The 49ers are also very good in time of possession. One caveat; they have lost Trent Williams for this week. Their rush offense has been solid as well, although it did stumble vs Denver. The big question on pass defense, is how much can Jimmy G improve after a terrible effort against a very tough Broncos pass defense. The Rams’ defense has been solid against the run but has given up plenty of pass yards and is just average in Qb pressures. Will Garoppolo break out in Week 4? I don’t see it, although he does have a fine record against the Rams.

We know what Stafford is capable of, but he has only had middling results so far, including 5 interceptions. He had a good effort against the Cardinals last week, but faces a much tougher defensive beast on Monday. Stafford and the Rams’ 30th ranked run game were stymied by the Bills’ defense, which is similar in make-up to the 49ers’. My conclusion: neither team gets very many points for very different reasons. Take the Under on Monday.

.

.

You have to feel for the Reds’ rookie pitcher Hunter Greene this year. He took it on the chin for weeks early in the season, then gets his act together with a fine 2.01 EAR in his last 7 starts and still can’t win, getting little support from the Reds’ bats or pen.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are loving it down the stretch, winning 9 of 10. While their bats are still sub-par, they are getting great pitching from all quarters, allowing just 6 runs total in their last 6 games. Wesneski, the Cubs’ fine young rookie has impressed, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety. He faced the Reds in August and blanked them over five innings.

The Reds are in the cellar on offense, hitting a remarkably poor .169/.497 in the last week and have the bullpen struggling as well. Take the Cubs to win again today, although it may take the full nine innings.

The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety.  The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late.  The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble.  The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers.  Take this game to go under! 9*!

The Commanders, everyone’s latest whipping boys take on the Cowboys, already damned and redeemed this season. The Cowboys will likely start Cooper Rush again. Rush has been competent, if not at all spectacular, well protected by the Cowboys’ O-line, and has great receivers, including a returning Michael Gallup. Wentz has been a sitting duck behind an ineffective Washington O-line. Sacked as often as Burrows, no one has faced more QB pressure or the blitz than Wentz. Tough conditions to excel under. Sacked 9 times last week, the Commanders’ passing yards dropped by 100 yards from week two. Facing the Cowboys’ top of the line pass defense, it will likely be another long day for Wentz. Adding an indifferent run game, averaging just 86 yards a game, doesn’t aid the overall Commanders’ offense.

The Dallas run defense has not been as effective, allowing 130+ yds an attempt and nearly 5 yds per carry. The Giants ran for 167 yards last week. The overall defense has been very effective, limiting teams to just 17+ points a game to date.

The Cowboys have a pair of good running backs and a top 11 run game. The Commanders’ defense have not handled the run nor the pass well to date. Look for a good situation for Pollard and Elliott. It should also be Rush’s best opportunity for a breakthrough week. I see the Cowboys seriously limiting Wentz and the Commander’s offense, and scoring enough to both win and cover on Sunday.

The Browns, a small favorite, face the 1-2 Falcons at home in week 4. Brissett has looked pretty sharp as a stand-in, with a healthy 10th rated QB ranking and a solid performance last week. He had 2 Tds, 0 interceptions and a 109 passer rating in week 3, not to mention a 74% completion rate in his last two games. Then there is Chubb, and don’t forget about Hunt, making a very tough 1-2 punch on the top running game in the league. The Browns’ offense have been the best in the league in time of possession, and they don’t turn the ball over very often. The Falcons have been turnover-prone to date.

The Falcons have put up almost as many points as the Browns. Mariota had a solid game in week three, and has also run the ball well, but has been sacked more than average, and has already thrown 3 picks. The Falcons’ Patterson put up huge numbers on the run last week, and has been a surprise standout so far, but is questionable with a knee injury for week four. Other than Mariota, Patterson IS the Falcons running game. He is a huge loss if his play is compromised.

All eyes were on the Browns’ defense after week two’s catastrophic ending. They played much better in week three, and have been tough against the run, although were a bit sloppy last week. They have also been tough on opposing passers, although injuries will play a role in that regard this Sunday.

The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league in a number of defensive categories, including points, total yards, and passing yards. They are just mid-pack in rushing categories, and while they are solid in QB pressure, the Browns’ O-line has protected Brissett well.

Look for another solid game from Brissett, and the Browns’ rush game to again dominate. If Patterson is compromised, things could go badly for the Falcons. Take the Browns to win.

The Vikings and Saints travel to London, each with potentially serious holes in the line-up due to injuries.  The Vikings will have Cousins at QB, and he could be the difference maker today. We could see a bounce-back game from Jefferson but Cousins has plenty of targets if the Saints key on JJ as other teams have lately. The Saints have a huge butcher's bill and could be down to Dalton at QB.  Even if Winston plays there  are huge questions around his performances lately, with a 79 average passer rating and more interceptions than TDs to date. Both top running backs are questionable for Sunday.

On defense, neither team has excelled.  The Vikings have given up yards but not points, the Saints have been the reverse.  The Saints to date have been weaker against the run, and don't pressure the passer effectively.  The Vikings O-line has protected Cousins well, and not so for the Saints.

I am on the Vikings today.  They have fared well in London in previous games.  I expect them to win and cover on Sunday.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 but it has not been a challenging schedule for the Hilltoppers. They’ve beaten FIU and Hawaii, who are probably the two worst FBS teams in the country, plus a FCS team in Austin Peay. Austin Peay may be the “best” win of the three, even though it was 73-0 last week against FIU. 

Yes, WKU probably should have beaten Indiana too, but instead lost that game in overtime. Because of that close call and the 73-0 win last week, I think we’ve got some nice value to go against the Hilltoppers this week.

Troy is 3-0 ATS as an underdog thus far, going against Ole Miss, Appalachian State and Marshall. After losing the way they did against App State (hail mary), it would have been easy for the Trojans to fold the following week against Marshall. But instead they took the game outright, 16-7, as a three-point dog.

The Trojans were by no means dominated by Ole Miss, only getting outgained by 87 yards. There may be a unique advantage for them in this matchup. Backup QB Jarret Doege transferred from WKU right before the start of the season. Doege should certainly be able to share some intel with his new teammates. 

Defensively, Troy has a clear edge here. They just held Marshall (who upset Notre Dame, remember) to not just 7 points, but 174 total yards. Indiana put up 484 yards on the WKU defense, which also benefited from 10 turnovers in the first two games. Troy’s offense has averaged 437 yards/game the L3 weeks. 10*

So there are several reasons to like Mississippi State in this game. Let’s go through them!

One is that the situation is really against Texas A&M, who just played a down to the wire game against Arkansas and has #2 Alabama on deck. Mississippi State played Bowling Green last week and won easily, 45-14. 

The Alabama game is huge for A&M as they beat the Crimson Tide last season and there has been a lot of chatter coming from both coaches, recruiting-related and otherwise, all offseason. 

Last year, Mississippi State also faced A&M in an “Arkansas-Alabama sandwich.” They upset the Aggies 26-22 in College Station as seven-point underdogs with QB Will Rogers (no, not me) completing 46 of 59 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers also did not throw an interception in that game. 

A&M has been outgained in three straight games with the offense never scoring more than 17 points. Remember last week they needed a defensive score (and a missed field goal) for the win. Even worse for the Aggies offense is that they have lost WR Smith to an injury. I just don’t see how they keep pace with a Mississippi State offense that has scored 39 or more points three times. The Bulldogs also led LSU on the road 13-0 before collapsing in the second half. They desperately will want to avoid an 0-2 start to SEC play. Lay the points at home. 9*

This is a Top 25 matchup but oddsmakers clearly believe #23 Florida State is better than #22 Wake Forest. So do I. 

From 2012-18, FSU defeated Wake seven straight times. But they’ve lost the last two head to head meetings, both in Winston-Salem, including 35-14 last year. There have been some “lean” years in Tallahassee - by Seminoles’ standards - but early returns in 2022 have been promising for coach Mike Norvell.

The ‘Noles are 4-0, which is their best start since 2015 . This is also the first game that they’ll play as a ranked team in four years. Both the offense and defense are in the top 35 nationally in scoring. QB Jordan Travis threw for a career-high 321 yards (with just 16 completions!) in last week’s 44-14 win over Boston College.

While FSU remains unbeaten, Wake Forest is off its first loss of the season. It was a wild one for the Demon Deacons, a 51-45 double overtime loss at home to #5 Clemson. Their defense obviously got torched. Coming off a loss like that, WF is “ripe for the picking.” 

Wake Forest has not won here in Tallahassee since 2008. Their defense is a major concern, not just because of the Clemson game last week. The week before, the Deacons allowed Liberty to 36 points and that honestly could have been a loss as they were outgained and needed Liberty to miss a 2-point try in the final 70 seconds. FSU should roll here. 10* 

The Phillies are just 4-6 and holding down a wild card spot. Barely… They were blanked in the Cubs series, scoring just 4 runs in 3 games, but did bounce back on Friday night vs the Nationals. The Nat’s are just 3-7 and haven’t been hitting more than 3 runs a game in 9 of 10 starts. Anibal Sanchez starts for the Nationals. He has put together a surprising light-out 6 weeks at 3-1 and 1.31 ERA in his last 7 games.

His opponent Gibson has been very volatile lately with just 1 quality start in September. Otherwise it was a cruel month as he gave up more than a run an inning, with an opposing batting average of .379.

The Phillies have a better offense than the Nationals, but no one has hit Sanchez well right lately. Gibson has had some solid starts this year, but is not a very good bet to pitch well right now. Add to that a surprisingly good bullpen of late and the Nationals have a prime spoiler opportunity. A win against the Phillies is not out of the question, but take the Nationals to at least stay close, on the run line at +1 ½.

Things are looking up for the Marlins down the stretch.  They are 6-4 L10, are out of the cellar on offense lately and have their ace on the mound today.  Alcantara has been terrific lately, pitching for such length that he needs little support from the pen, and allowing just 4 runs over 24 innings in his last three games.
Meanwhile, the Brewers lost last night, are just 5-5 lately, and are outside looking in for a Wild Card spot at the moment.  They also have their ace on the mound today, but all is not perfect in Burnes-ville lately.  His ERA over the last two months is well over 4.00 and his innings pitched are down.  The Brewers desperately need a win but Alcantara is a very tough out, and with Miami actually scoring some runs, today's game is a  perfect spoiler opportunity.  I like the Marlins' chances today.  Take them on the run line and watch them win or cover.

Here’s an interesting game in Conference USA as last year’s conference champs (UTSA) are laying a small number to a team that just blew out Miami FL on the road last week, Middle Tennessee. 

Going back to last season, UTSA has seen eight straight games go Over the total. But I’m thinking differently here. The number has been bet up and is now higher than any of the Roadrunners’ previous three games vs. FBS foes this season. Note they had two games go to overtime, one of which (37-35 loss to Houston) would not have gone Over without the extra time.

Middle Tennessee just put up 500 yards of offense in Coral Gables and there was really nothing misleading about that 45-31 upset last week where they came in as 25.5-point underdogs. But remember this is the same Blue Raiders team that scored just 7 points in the season opener vs. James Madison with only 119 total yards.

The 408 passing yards we saw from MTSU quarterback Chase Cunningham last week seems like an anomaly. He had not thrown for more than 266 in any of the first three games, all of which were against lesser competition. And it’s not like the Blue Raiders ran the ball well in any of those games. They’ve averaged only 75 yards rushing in the three FBS games.

The UTSA offense will have to be fearful of a Middle Tennessee’s defense that has forced nine turnovers in the last three games. UTSA is long overdue for the Under to hit, especially with this being a higher number than all but one of those last eight games. 10*

Houston is one of just eight FBS teams to have played four games and have all of them go Over the total. But, if you were an Over bettor in any of those four games, you got a little lucky. The opener vs. UTSA went to triple overtime. The game at Texas Tech went to double overtime. They let Kansas start two eventual TD drives inside the 25-yard line. There was a late fumble return for a TD against Rice.

Now in the case of the last two games, the Over would have still hit even without the randomness. But certainly a case can be made that Houston games shouldn’t be this high-scoring. I think we’re likely to see the scoring come to an abrupt halt this week when the Cougars host Tulane, a team that has yet to allow more than 336 yards in a game all season. The Green Wave defense gives up just 11.8 points/game! 

Tulane has certainly had an interesting last two weeks. They upset Kansas State on the road but then fell at home to Southern Miss. Neither game was high-scoring with the Green Wave offense averaging just 20.5 points. 

They did allow an interception return for a TD last week, which was the difference in the game. So really, Tulane’s defense has only given up 40 points in four games.

There seems to be a lot wrong with Houston at the moment, particularly along the offensive line, and I don’t see that being fixed against this great Tulane defense which is fourth in the nation against the pass. Time for the Cougars to go Under. 9*

The Reds are 3-7 and were swept by the Pirates in their last series.. They are hitting just .184/.597 in the last week, making the mid-pack Cubs offense look like a powerhouse. Meanwhile, the Cubs are on a roll, winning 7 of 8, and getting great pitching. Cubs’ right hander Sampson has been sharp with a 2.78 ERA over his last 7 games, giving up just 2 runs over 18 innings in his last three starts. He beat Ashcraft, Friday’s starter and the Reds in August.

Ashcraft is just one game back from the IL, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits over 4 innings on his return. Don’t look for any support from the Reds’ pen. They are struggling with an ugly ERA of over 8.00 in their last games. Meanwhile the Cubs’ relievers have been very sharp. Lately.

The Reds have struggled badly in September while the Cubs are at home and probably enjoying their success down the stretch. I foresee another Cubs’ victory on Thursday. Cubs to win outright.

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

Thursday night Football week 4 is a tough call, especially considering the question marks around Tua and a number of other Dolphins. Both teams are pass-centric to the extreme. The Dolphins are 31st in rush offense. The Bengals have a solid RB in Mixon but he just hasn’t been used as much as might be expected. The Dolphins’ defense has been top ten vs the run, while the Bengals rush defense has struggled and could be exploited.

Tua, if available, has excelled this year and has largely been well protected. The Dolphins have great receivers, and when healthy should compete with any team.   Burrow has been pressured and sacked on far too many occasions to date. The Bengals won’t have as easy a time of it this week as they did vs the Jets. I expect Miami to take it to Burrow, and all of that pressure comes at a price.

The Dolphins defense came up big on numerous occasions vs the Bills. I expect a big game from them. I am not confident that the Bengals are out of the woods yet or that their offensive line can stand up to Miami. Burrow better have his dancing shoes on. Expect a close game but take the Dolphins to cover.  9*!

Utah State is sitting at 0-4 ATS and 4-0 to the Under after four games. Obviously, they will not fail to cover AND go Under in every game this season. Which of these streaks are more likely to end Thursday night against BYU? I think it’s the Under streak. BYU should score a ton tonight, but look for Utah State to get their “fair share” as well.

BYU is a big favorite here, for good reason. The #19 ranked Cougars did get blown out in Oregon two weeks ago, but also hold a Top 25 win against Baylor here in Provo. Last week marked the second time in four games that the offense gained over 500 total yards. QB Hall, looking very much like a NFL prospect, has topped 300 yards passing in two straight games and is completing 71.4% of his passes this season. 

The Utah State defense has given up an average of 41.3 points the last three games. While one of those came against Alabama, the other two opponents were Weber State and UNLV and both of those teams scored 34. I would not be surprised if BYU scored 40 in this game.

But Utah State should move the ball as well.  The Aggies had 421 yards last week against UNLV,  but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. That was after turning it over four times the previous week. QB Logan Bonner was good last year, setting program records with 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns. So I’m a little perplexed as to why he’s struggled so much (especially with turnovers) these first four weeks. 

The BYU defense has given up 20 or more in every game this season. I’ve got USU eclipsing that number Thursday night. This number has come down, but I’m liking the value on the Over, which has hit each of the last four times BYU has been off an ATS loss (did not cover -21.5 vs. Wyoming last week). 10*

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals.

It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander.  Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September.   Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts.

Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen,  as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today.

The Phillies have lost three straight, not what the Doctor ordered for a wild card run.  I am backing the Cubs on Wednesday and getting some very favorable odds.  They face a very experienced and successful starter in the Phillies' Nola on Wednesday, but have taken two straight from this same team.  The Cubs are surprisingly good as a home underdog this season and have a better record in September. The Phillies are struggling on the road at the moment.  They are hitting just mid-pack and giving up too many runs.  The bullpen has been unable to finish of late, with an elevated ERA.
The Cubs aren't hitting very well but they are getting solid pitching, both in starting and relief.  Wednesday's starter, Wesneski, is young and inexperienced but he doesn't pitch like it at all. Just a few starts into his career, he pitched into the 7th and gave up 2 and 1 runs in his last two appearances, allowing a total of 8 hits.
Tuesday night's game was a pitchers' duel, broken open with a late run against the Phillies' bullpen.  I expect a similar result on Wednesday.  Take the Cubs on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Phillies are hoping for one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League, but have not helped themselves recently by losing 7 of 10. Now all but one of those seven losses came at the hands of the Braves, who are one of the best teams in baseball. But the team Philly is facing now swept them back in July and I see an excellent opportunity to back the Cubs +1.5 at home in the series opener.

The Cubs have won five of their last six games, so they come in as the hotter team. When they went to Philly two months ago, they ended up outscoring the Phillies 25-7 in the three-game sweep. Now they get them at home. The Phillies have not been a good road team in 2022, especially of late, dropping 12 of 17 and four straight away from home. 

Cubs’ starting pitching has the third lowest ERA (3.15) in MLB since the All Star Break. Marcus Stroman is on the hill tonight and looking to make it three consecutive quality starts. Against Miami and Colorado, Stroman allowed just four runs and eight hits in 13 innings. He’s pitched better than his record shows with a 3.80 ERA and 1.162 WHIP and has a 2.49 career ERA against the Phillies. 

Meanwhile, Zach Wheeler hasn’t been great for Philadelphia recently, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP his last three starts. It may be a short leash tonight as Wheeler only worked four innings last Wednesday in his first start in almost a month after being bothered with a forearm issue.

Give me the Cubs on the run line tonight as they’ve already proven they can dominate the Phillies and are in better form entering this series. 10*

Cleveland has really turned it on down the home stretch, winning 18 of its last 21 games including seven straight. They’ve clinched the AL Central, which makes it four pennants in Terry Francona’s time here as well as six playoff appearances in 10 years. Each of the last seven Guardians’ victories have been by at least two runs. They’ve outscored the opposition 53-24.

Tampa Bay is trying to get into the playoffs themselves. They appear safe with a 3.5 game cushion for one of the three Wild Card spots. But what started as a promising weekend in Toronto, with two wins where they scored 10 runs each game, ended poorly for the Rays as they lost both Saturday and Sunday. 

Tuesday’s pitching matchup features a pair of hurlers that both won a Cy Young for Cleveland. Shane Bieber is still pitching for the Guardians and thriving with a 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP his past three starts. But former teammate Corey Kluber has been struggling for the Rays, posting a 7.42 ERA and 1.799 WHIP over his last three starts.

Kluber did have a nice outing last week vs. Houston, but the team still lost. The Rays are 0-3 in Kluber’s last three starts while the Guardians are 4-0 in Bieber’s last four. Bieber is simply the superior starter in this matchup.

Tough to like Tampa on the road where they’ve gone 2-8 this year as a dog of +125 to +175. Cleveland is 20-8 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Cheap price on the home team in this one. 9*

The 1-1 Cowboys face off with the 2-0 Giants in a highly touted MNF game. Sorry Giants, but I am not sure that 3-0 is a real possibility. First off, I am not sold on Jones nor the Giants ability to protect him on Monday. Jones was well under 200 yds passing, with very short yds/comp and was sacked multiple time. This against 2 relatively poor pass attacks. The Cowboys’ pass defense has been formidable, top 5 in most categories, and a passer nightmare in both games. The Giants also saw the run game (Barkley) fall off significantly in week two after a fine and much publicized effort in Week one against a weak defense. The Cowboys’ rush defense was much better in week two, holding Mixon and the Bengals to 89 yards.

On defense the Giants have not really impressed. The run defense struggled against the Titans as expected but allowed nearly 120 yds against Carolina. They are 30th in yards per completion, again vs. two sub-par passers.

Perhaps the biggest question in this game surrounds the Dallas offense after the loss of Prescott. The Cowboys have a very good two pronged running attack. Rush threw for more yards and had a higher passer rating than Jones in week two. He has been well protected and has brilliant targets available. Even with injury returns, the Giants will likely struggle to get to Rush this week. The rest of the Dallas team will have Rush in about in as good a position to succeed as could be hoped for.

The Giants are a small favorite. Take the Cowboys to steal this one on the road.

The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home.  Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series.  He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short.  He has been hit extremely hard to date.   Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen.  We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.

Lyles starts for the Orioles.  He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances.  I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts.  The Red Sox have had his number this year.  In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often.  He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.

The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out.  That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking.  The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race.  It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.

The Falcons have held their own against 2 tough opponents, scoring 26 and 27 points and covering in both games.  They have a solid rush offense to date, and Mariota has put them in a position to win both games.  The 1-1 Seahawks were lucky to win their first game and lost badly last week.  They are close to the bottom in many offensive categories, including time of possession and points scored.  They have no run game to speak of.  Geno Smith has been accurate but unable to generate points or yards.
Neither team has defended well against the pass.  Seattle has given up big yards against the run.  Home team or not, I just can't Seattle generating  enough points or defending well enough against a fairly dynamic Falcons offense.  Take the Falcons to steal this one.  9*!

The 5-5 Marlins have been tough against the Nationals in Miami for some time, have won two straight against the Nats,  and are a surprisingly big favorite today.  The Nationals have struggled lately at just 3-7.  Right handed veteran Sanchez starts for Washington.  While his record may not show it, he has pitched well lately, with an ERA of 2.10 over his last 7 games.  He faced Miami in his last start, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings, and has a road ERA of 2 runs less this season.

He faces another right-hander, Miami's Cabrera. Cabrera is 6-3 for the season, but has not been quite as sharp, with a worse ERA than Sanchez's at 3.49 L7.  He hasn't pitched past the fifth lately and has also given up 5 home runs in his last 4 starts.

Both teams have been getting very good relief pitching; the Nationals pen has oddly been better than Maimi's.  The Marlins have been hitting better just lately, but are generally a poor bet against a righty.  The odds seem very high for weak team like Miami.  The Nationals took two of three from the Marlins in their home series.  Take Washington on the run line today at + 1 1/2.

It was just the one quarter... Like the old joke, the Ravens’ 4th quarter soured a fine game from Lamar Jackson. And yes, the Patriots’ won last week, but against a Steelers team with not much of an offense. The Patriots do not have the receivers, nor can Jones run and gun with Jackson. Not to mention, the Ravens blitz and Jones is very susceptible. Both teams have been solid vs. the run, but NE hasn’t faced a QB who can scramble like Jackson. The Ravens lack of rushing offense, other than Jackson, is a concern, but that may change today.  New England does have two solid running backs.

Jackson’s QB rating is right up there, Jones is 18th. Jackson has thrown just 1 interception; Jones 2. Neither passer was sacked last game. NE may be missing their top receiver in this game, a situation they can ill afford.

I am wagering on the Ravens this week and expect them to bounce back from their ugly loss in week two.  I also expect the Ravens' defense to be on their very best behavior and make the necessary adjustments, and had success backing the Browns' defense to respond this week.  Jones has yet to prove himself this year; Jackson will be the game breaker.  The line has dropped below a field goal.  Jump on the Ravens to win and cover.

The 2-0 Chiefs face a struggling Colts team in Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts game in week two could hardly have gone worse, but the line has drifted in the Colts’ favor. I am unsure why. KC and Patrick Mahomes have looked very good in their opening two games. Mahomes has adapted comfortably to his new circumstances, and we are seeing some timely running from this pass-centric offense. Mahomes has had great protection, hasn’t thrown an interception, and has a monster QB rating.

The Colts’ offense has been a shambles, and were shut out last week. Taylor only carried the ball 9 times, which is incomprehensible. Ryan does not look settled, and has been very poor under pressure, of which there has been lots as the Colts’ O-line has struggled. Ryan threw 3 interceptions, was sacked multiple times, and ended with a miserable 34 passer rating. He may benefit from the return of a quality target, but that is still an unknown.

Kc did not defend well vs the pass last week but faced a much tougher opponent in the Chargers. They have been more successful applying pressure to the passer than the Colts, but haven’t faced a top running back like Taylor this year, so will need to work to contain him.

The Colts would have to make a huge adjustment to come within a TD of the Chiefs and there really is no sign of that in week three. To add to their problems, the Colts will miss a pair of key people on defense this week. I am on KC to win and cover on the road on Sunday.

The Eagles collectively improved from week 1, and manhandled the Vikings in a complete game winning effort. Hurts looked poised and produced in the air and, of course, on the ground. The Eagles’ running game is on fire with Sanders averaging 88 yds a game and 5.9 yds/carry. Hurts has “chipped in” with 147 yards to date, ahead of all passers. On defense, they limited the Vikings’ run game to 62 yds and all but shut down the highly touted Jefferson in the air. The Vikings’ offense was on the field less than 40% of the time.

The Commanders lost to Detroit, but Wentz made it interesting in the second half. He has thrown for over 300 yards in the first two games, but also had 3 interceptions and was sacked 6 times to date. Wentz had better be good as Washington has had no appreciable running game to date. The Commanders’ defense has struggled against the run, at or near the bottom in yds and yds/carry, and giving up 191 yards to the Lions last week. They’ve also given up considerably more yards in the air than the Eagles.

I am big on the Eagles this year, but was concerned with their defensive play in Week one. Week two showed real improvement against a possible play-off team. There is much talk about a revenge game for Wentz this week. That sentiment goes both ways as Russell Wilson found out in his first game back in Seattle. Take the Eagles to win and cover. 9*!

This is a massive letdown spot for #18 Washington, who beat Michigan State 39-28 last week to move into the polls. The Huskies were an unranked favorite over a Top 25 team in that game. They are one of just five schools to be 3-0 ATS and favored in every game.

Now they’re laying double digits to a conference rival.

Following a loss to USC, Stanford had last week off. Going back to last year, the Cardinal haven’t covered a spread in nine consecutive games, tying them with Colorado State for the longest streak in the nation. But a bye week coupled with the fact they played USC tougher than you might think, have me believing they will stay inside the number this week.

Stanford is 5-1 straight up vs. Washington when the Huskies are ranked in the Top 25. I know that QB Michael Penix Jr (transfer from Indiana) has been a difference-maker for UW, but this spread seems too high after a marquee win like the one the team had last week. I’m not THAT sold on the Huskies just yet.

As for Stanford, after a bye, they figure to go “all out” in this game as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Pac 12 play. The spread is up to two touchdowns and I just do not see the favorite winning by that kind of margin. Washington is only 2-9 ATS its last 11 conference games and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times it has been off a straight up win. 10*

The current 40.5-point spread for this game, if it holds, would be the largest for any SEC game going back to 1996. I have no interest in playing the spread, but the total did jump out to me.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 to the Over this year, starting with a 63-10 win over Hawaii. From there, the Commodores have beaten Elon 42-31, lost to Wake Forest 45-25 and then bounced back last week with a 38-28 come from behind win over Northern Illinois.

The Commies are putting up 42.0 points/game. Tonight in Tuscaloosa, they won’t even put up half that number.

The Alabama defense that Vandy is running into Saturday has allowed just 26 points - total - in three games and 19 of that came from Texas, a game that was played in Austin. 

The last two times these teams met, Vandy was shut out both times. Granted, those games were played in 2011 and 2017, but it’s not like the talent discrepancy has gotten any closer. Look for the Crimson Tide to completely shut down the Vanderbilt offense and not hang 50+ themselves. Nick Saban and the coaching staff, no matter what they say publicly, care far more about next week’s game at Arkansas. 10*

Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have been involved in a game that went Over the total, but shouldn’t have.

Two weeks ago Houston faced Texas Tech. The game went to overtime tied 20-20. That was after Texas Tech kicked the game-tying FG with three seconds left. From there, both offenses got on track and it ended up being a 33-30 final (Houston lost), just clearing the O/U line of 62.5. 

Last week, Rice upset Louisiana 33-21 as an 11.5 point home underdog. The total closed at 52. If not for an early pick-six by Louisiana, that game would not have gone Over. Rice’s defense played shockingly well, holding the Ragin Cajuns to 175 total yards and just nine first downs. One of the other Louisiana touchdowns came about after a turnover that set them up inside the red zone.

The Owls offense had a lot of big plays in that game and I do not think they’ll be able to hit those with such great frequency this week. Also, Houston shouldn’t have given up 48 points last week to Kansas. Two of the Jayhawks’ touchdown drives began inside the UH 25-yard line.

Even though the Over is a combined 6-0 for these two squads in 2022, the market is expecting the opposite result this week. So am I. Even with the number coming down several points, Under is the play here. 10* 

Atlanta swept the Phillies last week and it appears the Phillies are repaying the favor this week, now up 2-0 in their home series. The Braves’ usually overpowering bats have cooled off, but their pitching other than on Friday has been excellent. Atlanta is one of the best teams against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is usually very good off a loss. Off three straight losses, I expect a bounce back win from the Braves, getting Kyle Wright his 20th win of the season. Wright is a cool 6-0 in his last 7 games, with an ERA of 3.05. He has given up just 3 runs in his last 2 games after a debacle of a start against the A’s, his worst of the season.

Wright faces Brady Falter, who has been dynamite down the stretch, winning 5 games and with a 2.45 ERA over his last 7 starts. He stymied the Braves, allowing 1 run over 5 innings in his last start and the Phillies still lost. Falters’ starts are usually of the 5 inning variety and he has not been as strong at home this season.

The Phillies are just 9-9 in September and just over .500 vs right-handers. Their bullpen has been an issue of late with an ERA approaching seven, and may prove to be the difference on Saturday. Take the Braves to bounce back and win.

Few are going to give Maryland any shot of pulling the upset Saturday in Ann Arbor, even though the Terrapins come in at 3-0. It has not been a good run against Michigan the last several years with the Terps both losing and failing to cover each of the last six meetings.

Maryland did have a nice win last week (at home) against SMU. So it’s not like they haven’t played anyone. The same cannot be said for Michigan who has faced three of the worst teams in the country, Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut. Give the Wolverines credit for winning those three games by a combined score of 166-17. But they were also favored to win the three games by 132 points. All three lines were -31 or higher with the last two averaging -50.5! 

I know that Maryland was a bit lucky to get the win last week over SMU. But I think they’ve got the goods to stay within 17 this week. QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 77 percent of his passes and has accounted for seven touchdowns. This will quite obviously be the best offense Michigan has faced thus far. 

So let’s see how Michigan does once they actually “get punched in the mouth.” My view is that the weak non-conference slate did wonders for “stat-padding.” However, the team is likely now overconfident as they hit the Big 10 slate. The Wolverines are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  10*

UTEP isn’t going to get a lot of love from bettors here, especially with the Miners coming in at 0-4 ATS. But the Boise State team that comes to El Paso Friday night just isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing. In their only “real” test thus far, the Broncos got run off the field in an embarrassing first half showing at Oregon State, a game they’d go on to lose 34-17.

Now Boise has bounced back with a couple of wins, over New Mexico and Tenn Martin, but that doesn’t convince me they are worthy of laying double digits on the road. The Broncos are 0-2-1 ATS in 2022 and pushed two weeks ago with a similar spread at New Mexico. I realize that UTEP just lost to New Mexico - by 17 - last week. But they turned it over SEVEN times in that game, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. 

The UTEP defense has not been bad the last two games, giving up 313 total yards to New Mexico State and just 299 to New Mexico. Yes, those are two bad teams, but Boise State’s offense just isn’t what it used to be. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier has been inconsistent and was shaken up in last week’s game. On other side of the ball, two starters in the Boise secondary also got hurt last week. So there may be hope for a couple of big plays in the passing game from this UTEP offense after all.

Boise State’s offense seems content to play “slower” compared to years’ past, so I do not see them running away with this game. For the record, the Broncos are 2-10 ATS following a straight up win, 0-5 if that win was by more than 20 points. Also, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at San Diego State

For UTEP, this game will be treated as “their Super Bowl.” It’s a rare national TV game (CBS Sports) on a Friday night against a fairly marquee opponent. I had success with an "ugly dog" last Friday (Wyoming), so grab those points again. 9*

It’s back to back Friday night games for Air Force, who lost outright last week, on the road to Wyoming by a score of 17-14. As I did note in my analysis for that game, the Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack had been stymied in the past by Wyoming. It was “deja vu all over again” as AF ran for just 171 yards on 40 attempts in Laramie where they are now 0-4 L4 visits.

This week’s opponent, Nevada, has also played AF “tough” in the past as well. While the Falcons have the 4-2 SU edge as Mt West rivals, the last five meetings have all been one-score games with four of those decided by three points or less. Last year’s game went to OT with Air Force winning 41-39.

I think that after the debacle against Wyoming last week, the Air Force offense gets back on track here. Let’s not forget that the Falcons scored 89 points in their first two games of the season or that they have gone for 40+ in five of those last six games against Nevada.

And while Nevada has been a tough opponent for AF in the past, the Wolf Pack aren’t very good this year. The defense is young and most of the players on the field don’t have much experience defending the triple option. This is a Nevada defense that gave up 55 points to Incarnate Word, a FCS school, two weeks ago. 

With a low total and me looking for AF to put a lot of points on the board, I’m looking for this game to go Over. Nevada being shut out last week at Iowa was a case of facing a great defense. In their previous two games, the Wolf Pack had scored 79 points. I’d much rather bet the Over than lay the points in this game. The O/U line has been bet down and I’m seeing value at the current number. 10*

The young upstart Orioles knocked off the Astros, something very few teams have been able to do. The Orioles have been a good home team this season, and have one of their better starters on the mound. Kremer has been very sharp, going 3-1, 2.79 in his last 7 games. He faced Houston in late August, pitching 7+ innings and allowing just 1 run on 4 hits.

The Astros have looked nearly unbeatable, but have clinched, so the pressure is off. Urquidy starts on Friday and he has been struggling in his last 2 starts, giving up more than a run an inning to the A’s and Angels. Urquidy faced the Orioles in Late August and was out-dueled by Kremer, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings.

Can the Orioles knock off the Astros two straight? Their bats had been slumping but they have been hitting right-handers well of late. Their bullpen, dependable all year, had also been slipping but has bounced back recently. The Astros have been doing most things right, good offense and superlative relief pitching, but can still be stymied by strong pitching. Take the Orioles on the run line at +1 ½.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games.  The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings.

The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching.  4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under.  The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue.  Take the under again today.

Thursday Night Football brings you an odd match-up this week featuring a team that can’t score vs a team the apparently can’t defend. We have heard about the Browns’ defensive debacle endlessly, but there were high points in that game for the Browns. Jacoby Brissett looked pretty good, and significantly better than the previous week. He was accurate, threw for 221 yds, had a passer rating of 98.5, and was protected well by the Browns’ O line. The Browns’ rush attack was overpowering, and is first in the league, with 184 yds last week and a potent two pronged attack from Chubb and Hunt. The Steelers have yet to face a good running team, but are still 23rd in yards allowed. They are also 30th in passing yards allowed, still missing Watt, and had zero sacks last week.

The Browns are missing key people on defense, which will make a difference, but less so against the Steelers. Trubisky has not been effective, and if anything was worse last week. He is 28th in passing yards, and 26th in QB rating. He was sacked three times last week and has not looked good handling pressure. The Steelers have not mounted a real run game yet, which leads one to wonder what have they been doing on offense? They haven’t had the ball much is the correct response, and are 30th in offensive time of possession.

I expect Cleveland to run up some points, and the defense to be on their best behavior, especially at home. Take the Browns to win and cover.

Coastal Carolina is 3-0, but it’s a shaky 3-0 as they barely escaped both Gardner-Webb and Buffalo. Even though QB Grayson McCall is still here and the offense is averaging 35.7 points/game, it has been nowhere near as efficient as the last two seasons. The Chanticleers are operating at a pretty slow tempo and have just five passing plays that have gone for more than 30 yards.

Georgia State is 0-3, but this is probably the best team in America without a win. Lots of miscues have cost them games against South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte. In the first two, the Panthers were underdogs, so you can make the case they weren’t expected to win. But against Charlotte, they were favored by almost three touchdowns. 

In the loss to South Carolina, Georgia State had two special teams touchdowns go against them. Both were blocked punts. North Carolina is team that put up 60+ points against Appalachian State, so holding them to “just 35” isn’t all that bad for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t know what happened last week vs. Charlotte, other than it was a sandwich spot between two games against Power 5 opponents and this, the Sun Belt opener. But still, Georgia State should not have lost last week.

There was also a fumble return for a TD by Charlotte. So that’s three non-offensive TD’s allowed by Georgia State in three games. I’ll make the case then that the defensive numbers are not as bad as they look. 

Coastal Carolina is not running the ball as effectively as they have in years past. This is the first road game for the Chanticleers and I expect the offense to struggle. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. Georgia State is 4-1 to the Under its last five home games. Play the Under. 10*

The Pirates will be glad to get off the road after being swept by the Mets, and pummeled by the Yankees. They are up against the Cubs, and the pair of teams are underachieving on offense. The Pirates’ bullpen was also savaged by the Yankees. Keller starts for the Pirates and has an ERA of 3.50 over his last 7 games. He has thrown 4 straight quality starts, all 6 innings or over with 2 shutouts mixed in, but the Pirates have only won 2 of those starts. Don’t count on much support from the Pirates’ relievers today. They have walked off the plank with regularity lately.

The Cubs are 5-5 lately and haven’t scored a ton of runs, but they are hitting right handers better than the Pirates. Their pitching, both the starters and relievers, has been solid of late. Rookie Wesneski starts for the second time. This youngster has great stuff and rolled off 7 innings of 1 run 7 strikeout ball in Colorado in his first start. I don’t usually bank on rookies until proven, but the combination of Wesneski and a better bullpen should sway the game in the Cubs’ favor today. Take the underdog Cubs to win on the road.

The 9-1 Astros have clinched but don’t appear to have taken their foot off the gas, shutting out the Rays in two straight road games. They are the best hitting team in the league over the last 2 weeks, and don’t give up many runs. Their run differential over the last 7 games is a remarkable 5.3/1.9.

After 2 straight losses, the 6-4 Rays are desperate for a win, but that outcome is uncertain as they face yet a third excellent Astros’ starter. McCullers Jr. has only 6 starts this year, and while he has yet to give up more than 3 runs, he is really just rounding into top shape now. He struck out 11 in his last start and has given up 2 or less runs in his last 4 appearances.

Standing between the Rays and the broom is veteran Kluber. He has had some quality starts, but certainly not his last two, and there have been more than a few poor outings this year. The Rays have not hit well in recent weeks, and have a run differential of 3.6/3.1. Their bullpen is good as usual, but is overworked, and can’t compare at the moment to the Astros’ with a 1.29 ERA over the last 10 games.

If this were any other year, I would be on the Rays to bounce back, but they are not quite their usual irritating selves. Take advantage of very decent odds and wager on the Astros today.

After being swept by the Cubs, the Mets got a wake-up call and have reeled off 5 straight wins, the last two against the home town Brewers. NY hasn’t had much success vs the Brewers until this series. They are a very good road team, great vs right handers and top of the heap in offense lately. The Brewers are just 9-9 in September and are giving up more runs than expected for a team built on pitching. Houser starts for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. While 2 of 3 of his last starts were very good, he gave up 4 runs over 3 innings in his last start, and has been all over the map since a recall from the IL in late August.

He faces Walker, who has had a solid season for the Mets, but considering the state of the Mets’ starting pitching, will need to press down the stretch just to make the play-off roster. Walker usually pitches late into the game, and is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.25 in his last 7 starts.

The Mets have a great run differential lately, and a lights-out bullpen. The Brewers’ relief corps has been heavily used and hit hard. I am on the Mets to win on Wednesday although it may be close early. Mets to win outright. 9*!

The Mariners lost three straight before bouncing back in a big way against the Angels. They move to Oakland where they have a 10-2 record. They are usually a very good road team, and have an excellent starter on the mound on Tuesday. Castillo was a great pick-up for the M’s, and has been especially sharp lately with 2 shut-outs and a 1.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. He had an off day vs the A’s the last time he faced them, and is a very good bet for a bounce back.

The A’s are a poor home team and just 4-12 in September. They have given up plenty of runs and really struggle against a quality starter. JP Sears is on the mound. He had a good run when first moving to Oakland, but has fallen on hard times in his last two short and poor starts. Sears will get little support from a roughed up A’s bullpen.

The Mariners aren’t hitting for avg. but their power figures are good lately. The A’s aren’t hitting at all.

The A’s can occasionally surprise someone, but the Mariners are in tough in a pennant race and will be motivated on Tuesday. Take the Mariners on the run line.  9*!

The Angels and Rangers have been equals in futility this year but the Angels have looked better in September at 7-8 compared to 5-12. LA took an impressive 3 of 4 against Seattle, with some solid pitching in a couple of those starts. Left hander Sandoval is on the mound on Tuesday. He has been a very solid starter for some time and has an ERA of 1.69 in his last 7 starts. He has been giving up a few more hits, but just 5 runs in his last 3 starts. Sandoval has been better on the road this season. While they struggled last night, the Angels’ bullpen has had some solid outings lately.

The Rangers are 4-6 and their bats have cooled off after a good offensive run. Rookie left hander Ragans has just 6 starts to date, and just 2 since returning from a brief IL stint. He blanked Houston over just 3 innings in his first start back but then was shelled by Oakland, allowing 7 earned runs over 4 innings. Don’t expect any length from Ragans on Tuesday.

I am on the Angels in this game. Sandoval has impressed, and is due some run support. The Angels have been hitting better lately and have a real opportunity to run up the score against Ragans. Take the Angels to win outright.

The Vikings off a hug win against the Packers, looked solid on both offense and defense. Admittedly this was not a vintage game from Rogers, but give the Vikings some credit; they sacked him 4 times, and held Rogers to a 74.7 QB rating. On offense, Cousins, Jefferson, and Cook all looked terrific. Cousins was accurate, and ran up 269 passing yds with 2 TDs and a 118 QB rating.

The Eagles put up a bunch of points but were hardly in control against a team much weaker than the Vikings. Hurts struggled in the air but was a force on the ground. The Eagles’ run game is a force to be reckoned with, and it isn’t just Hurts. The Eagles have a very good offensive line, and a solid running back in Sanders. The Eagles cannot afford to expose Hurts to the same degree very often.

The Eagles’ defense was a concern. They were just OK vs. Gough and the pass, but were very poor vs. the run. As talented as it is the defense is, did not look composed or effective. Can they improve significantly in a week? It seems a tall order. I like the Eagles this year, but just not yet. Take the Vikings to cover.

The Twins finally snapped their long losing streak here in Cleveland by winning Sunday, 3-0. Their season remains very much “on the brink” however, as they still trail the Guardians by six games in the Central. Today’s finale is pretty much “must win” for the road team (as are the rest of their games). I’ll be backing them.

The six-game edge Cleveland currently enjoys over Minnesota is a straight byproduct of a 12-6 record in head to head matchups. Other than that, the teams profile as being pretty evenly matched. They have similar run differentials. But I like the spot for the Twins, who are 8-5 coming off a shutout win while the Guardians are 3-6 after being shutout in their previous game. 

Cleveland’s record at Progressive Field also isn’t that great. They’ve actually allowed more runs than they’ve scored here.

I’m aware that CLE starter Quantrill has not had a losing decision at home in quite some time (last year!) But the Twins’ Sonny Gray, who has a 1.81 ERA since the All-Star Break, is the better pitcher in Monday’s matchup. In 9 of his last 10 starts, Gray has given up two runs or less.

The Guardians don’t have a very strong lineup - they average just 3.9 runs/game at home - so expect Gray to dominate this afternoon. There could be a rain delay, but when the teams take to the field, it will be the Twins coming out ahead. 10*

The Reds have lost 3 straight against the Cardinals, aren't hitting, and are just 6-11 in September.  They are a very poor road underdog, and struggle against left-handed pitching.  Their starter Cessa was hit hard in his last appearance, but has otherwise been average with short starts.
The Cardinals are 11-5 in September and tough to beat at home.  Lefty Jordan Montgomery struggled for the first time since becoming a Cardinal, but is a very good bet to bounce back today.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of 2.28 in his last 7 starts  The Reds have yet to face Montgomery.
The Reds are giving up twice as many runs as they score lately and have had some lopsided losses.  The odds strongly favor the Cardinals, and with Montgomery on the mound and that lights' out pen, I will take them on the run line.

Looking the Patriots and Steelers in week one, there was no joy to be seen, other than the Steelers’ pass defense. They were full marks for a 7 sack, 5 turnover day. And it wasn’t just Watt who excelled, although he will be sorely missed on Sunday. The Patriots’ run defense was also effective, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards and 2.8 yds a carry. Their pass defense did manage 3 sacks.

Neither quarterback impressed at all. Jones’ accuracy was ok but he also missed relievers badly at very critical moments. He was sacked twice and threw 1 interception. Trubinsky shouldn’t even attempt a long game. He wasn’t intercepted because he consistently overthrew his receivers, had just a 55 % completion rate and looked uncomfortable under pressure. He will likely see more pressure on Sunday.

The two teams were 26th and 27th in total yards on offense last week, with a negligible and unsuccessful running game. Both teams finished under 80 total yards rushing and an average of 3.5 and 3.4 yds per carry.

Where are the points going to come from on Sunday? New England only managed 7 in week one, and the Steelers’ defense accounted for most of the Steelers’ field position and 7 of their points. The answer about points is they aren’t coming, or not very many of them. Take the Patriots and Steelers to go under.

The Ravens won easily last week, but it wasn’t the most inspiring of wins. While they limited the Jets’ running game, they allowed Flacco a ton of passing yards. They did sack him three times and pressured him frequently. On offense they took advantage of good field position. Jackson threw for 3 touchdowns, but just 211 yards. He was sacked twice. The Ravens rushed for just 63 yards, and 3 yds per carry with minimal yards from Jackson himself.

The Dolphins rolled over the Patriots, with a fine first outing from Tua and his top two receivers. It was all in the air, as the Dolphins ran for just 78 yards, no TDs and five first downs. The defense pretty well shut down the Patriots’ attack allowing just 270 total yards and 1 TD.

The Dolphins love to blitz and thoroughly disrupted the Ravens’ offense in their meeting last year. Expect more of the same tactic until it is proven unsuccessful. Obviously the Ravens have had lots of time to develop a better strategy, but Jackson can expect plenty of pressure this week.

The Dolphins are expected to be a very good defensive team this year. They won’t have to worry about much of a run game from Miami considering last week’s performance. They should pressure Tua much more than he was last week, although the number of yards given up to Flacco is disconcerting. The Dolphins have the injury bug with their offensive line., making the Ravens’ job slightly easier.

It is hard to pick a clear victor so I am looking to the total. This could be more of a defensive battle than might be expected. Take the total to go under. 9*!

Utah is out for revenge Saturday night in Salt Lake City, facing a San Diego State team that defeated them, 33-31 as eight-point underdogs, last season. The Utes are much bigger favorites this time, but I think the Aztecs keep it close. 

The bloom is off the rose a bit for SDSU as they lost 38-20 at home to Arizona in the opener. But they came back to beat Idaho State 38-7 last week. A well-coached team like this, that can run the football effectively, should be able to control the clock and stay within the generous number.

Let’s not forget Utah lost to Florida. Florida is obviously much better than SDSU, but the Utes defense did allow 451 yards in that game. 

I think that the revenge angle has inflated this line. Utah is also just 2-11 ATS in the month of September, not to mention 1-4 ATS following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 2-7 ATS its last nine non-conference games. 

And this is a spot where San Diego State typically steps it up. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games vs. Top 25 teams. Going back to 2016, they sport a 13-5 record vs. the number when catching points. 10*

The Over is 2-0 for Houston football this season with an average of 67.5 points scored in the two games. But this is highly misleading. There have been five overtimes in the two games, a 37-35 win at UTSA and a 33-30 loss at Texas Tech.

This week the Cougars open the home schedule against a Kansas team that is off a couple of strong offensive showings. Can’t remember the last time the Jayhawks have posted back to back 50+ point efforts, but that’s the situation here. Again though, it’s a little misleading. 

It was a very rare two touchdowns in OT from Kansas last week. After they scored to take the 49-42 lead, they returned an INT for a TD to make it 55. That was after WVU forced OT with a TD in the final minute of regulation.

The Houston-Texas Tech game probably shouldn’t have gone to OT either. The Cougars returned an INT for a TD in the fourth quarter, then each team made a FG in the final minute of regulation.

With both teams coming off games that ended up “misleadingly” high-scoring, I’ll back the Under here. Even with five overtimes, the Houston offense is only averaging 350 yards per game. The Kansas offense certainly won’t continue putting up the kinds of numbers we’ve seen in the first two games. 10*

The Jays, off a home win, face the Orioles in game two of their series. The Jays are a good home team especially in the second half. They are 11-4 in September, very tough on right-handers, and hitting for both average and power recently. Berrios, Saturday’s starter has been an enigma this year, but he has been much better lately and very good at home this year. Even with Berrios’ inflated ERA, the Jays win when he is on the mound.

The over-achieving Orioles have struggled against the other AL East teams lately and have slipped out of a wild card spot. They are below .500 on the road and against right-handed pitching. They aren’t hitting especially well and their bullpen is struggling. Saturday’s starter is rookie right-hander Bradich. He has had an excellent 2nd half, but gave up 3 runs and 6 hits over 3 innings to the Jays just two starts ago. The Jays have seen a lot of Bradich this year, with good success; 6 of their lineup are hitting .333 or better against him.

The Jays are streaking in a good way lately, and can be very tough after some good looks at a pitcher. With 4 games against Bradich already, I like them to hit him hard again. They are a middling favorite on Saturday. Take the Jays to win outright. 9*!

The second Scott Frost was fired, bettors started piling on Nebraska, who is a home dog for this Noon ET matchup against #6 Oklahoma. I agree with the line move and will be taking the points.

Nebraska may be 0-3 ATS, 1-2 SU, but Frost is gone and the Cornhuskers have actually been pretty good as an underdog in recent years (12-8-1 ATS). Last year, they easily covered as 22-point dogs in Norman, losing by just seven points to OU.

The Sooners did win 33-3 last week, but that’s a little misleading when you consider they were down 3-0 to Kent State with under a minute to go in the first half. Just because they were able to pile it on in the second half there doesn’t mean they can do the same here.

Interim coach Mickey Joseph should have the Blackshirts fired up and ready to go Saturday morning. I just can’t see the home team being blown out here and remember no team has lost more close games the last few seasons than Nebraska has. All we are asking for here is for them to keep it close.

The offense seems just fine in Lincoln, averaging 36 points/game. Oklahoma has yet to face a good offense this year. I also wouldn’t be so certain that the Sooners can make it three straight games without a turnover. Grab the points. 9*

The Mariners face the Angels today, and are hoping to keep pace in the very close ALwild card. They are 8-4 in September, a very good road team, especially as a road favorite, and have had their way with the Angels this year. Lefty Robbie Ray starts for Seattle. After 2 straight shut outs, he gave up 4 runs against the Braves in his last start. Ray absolutely sparkled in August and is a good bet to bounce back . He has faced the Angels twice this year, with a pair of 7 inning 1 run outings to show.

The Angels are 3-9 as a home underdog, and 4-8 in September. They have a poor runs scored to runs allowed ratio lately at 3.6/5.0. Lorenzen is just back from a very long stay on the IL and opened with a solid start vs. the Astros. The Mariners have had good success against Lorenzen this year.

The Mariners are hitting better for power lately and should Ray need it, very good support from their stellar bullpen. The Angels struggle against left-handed pitching. Take Ray and the Mariners to get back on track with a road victory today. 9*!

Air Force is probably the best team in the Mountain West right now. Going back to last season, the Falcons own the nation’s third longest active win streak at six in a row. They have also covered the spread in all six of those games. But Wyoming has always been a tough opponent and I’m liking the points in this Friday night matchup.

First off, Air Force hasn’t won here in Laramie since 2012. They’ve lost three times here since that last win and conference openers also seem to be a problem for the Falcons. They’re just 2-9 SU in MWC openers the last 11 seasons. They’ve also lost their first road game of the season each of the last three years.

Nobody runs the ball better than Air Force, but the past shows that the Wyoming defense has been fairly adept at slowing down the triple option. The last two years, Air Force has averaged just 186.5 rush yards vs. Wyoming. That still sounds like a lot, however, not when compared to what the Falcons usually rush for.

Wyoming is also 2-0, by the way. I know that an OT win over Tulsa and beating FCS Northern Colorado isn’t going to really impress anybody. But the fact they put up an average of 36.5 points in those two wins is encouraging. The Cowboys should have scored more than 33 last week, but settled for four field goals. 

The last 14 encounters between these Mt West rivals have seen an average of just over 42 points/game scored. That’s not very many. So, in what historically has been a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the better option, especially with AF’s past struggles here in Laramie. 10* 

The 3-7 Royals have taken over the cellar on offense in the last two weeks. They were swept by the Twins, managing just 5 runs in 3 games. They are very poor on the road, and have really struggled against right-handed pitching. Heasley starts for KC. He has had the rare good start but has struggled lately (2-4, 6.75/L7 starts), and was shelled by the Tigers in his last outing.

The Red Sox are off a pair of losses to the Yankees, but hitting has not been the issue, with a healthy .268/.770 line. They scored 17 runs for Wacha, Friday’s starter, in his last start. As disappointing as Boston’s season has been, they are a terrific 8-0 when favored at home. Wacha has been the Red Sox’s best pitcher this year, and has been solid in his recent appearances. He is unusual, pitching much better in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. Both teams have been getting good relief pitching lately, but I expect a longer start from Wacha.

It could be a tough day for Heasley in Fenway park. After a long stretch against the AL East, I expect some run production from the Red Sox on Friday. Take the Sox on the run line, at – 1 ½.

It is the Chargers and the Chiefs in a barn burner of a match-up on TNF.  Mahomes and the Chiefs overpowered the Cardinals over 3 quarters, then coasted home while resting starters, which is significant considering the quick turn-around in Week Two.  The Chargers prevailed in a much closer match-up vs the Raiders, and were all out until the last series.
Mahomes and Herbert are expected to be the story, and both were superb in Week One.  While this match will likely be pass-focused, it is the the success or failure of the respective run games which may play a dominant roll.  The success of Edwards-Helaire as a rusher and a receiver, and the emergence of  rookie Pacheco may be significant this week.  Mahomes wasn't sacked in Week one, but  the Chargers' new Mack-Bosa led pass rush had 6 sacks in week one. Not to underestimate that duo, and Mahomes has too many options to allow that kind of pressure, but he likely won't emerge this week unscathed. The Chargers' defense barely face a run game (just 13 plays) and still allowed a rushing yards-against average of nearly 5 yards.   On offense the Chargers' run game was most unimpressive, averaging under 3 yds a carry over 31 plays.
On Defense, the Chiefs Sacked Murray three times, and limited the Cardinals on the ground and in the air.  Like Mahomes, Herbert was not sacked in week one, but I expect him to have a much rougher ride this time around.  He likely will be without Allen, his favorite target in week one.
It is hard to doubt the Chiefs after such a dominant victory in their first game. Mahomes seemed to revel in so many receiving options in week one, and he, of course still has Kelce as a go to. they looked incredibly prepared.  The loss of Allen and the lack of a run game will be the difference on Thursday.  Take the Chiefs to win and cover.

The Phillies knocked off the home team Marlins on Wednesday, scoring 4 runs against the bullpen to win. The Phillies need wins to keep their wild card hopes alive this season. It is the worst vs the first in offense on Thursday. The Phillies are flying at .296/.863. Not so the Marlins at .217/.601 over the last two weeks. Miami is just 3 and 7, managing just 2 runs against Philadelphia in their last two starts.

The Marlins pitching, including relievers, has struggled almost akin to their bats of late. Thursday’s starter Lopez who has had some very good moments this season, has regressed lately and is 1-4, 6.17 in his last 7 games. He gave up 8 runs in 3+ innings in his last start. A couple of H’s, Hoskins and Harper have had Lopez’s number in previous meetings.

Syndergaard starts for the Phillies and has pitched reasonably well in his last two starts. He is no longer overpowering, so don’t look for shutout innings from him any more. The Phillies, bullpen has been reasonable in relief lately.

Neither starter has pitched especially well lately, but the Phillies are the far better offense with a more effective bullpen, and the motivation to win. Look for the Phillies to break out the brooms on Thursday. Phillies to win.

The 6-4 White Sox are off a win, and putting the charge in the ball lately, at least top three over the last two weeks. They are hitting lefties especially well. They are just three games back of the division leading Guardians, their only hope for a playoff spot. They are not the best team on the road, but have their ace on the mound on Wednesday. With two shutouts in his last two starts, one of them a complete game effort, Cease is as good as anyone in the league, and boy, has he been getting run support lately, 25 runs in the last 2 games. To make matters worse for the Rockies, Colorado have almost no experience against him. Should he need bullpen support, the White Sox relievers have been solid of late.

While they have won their last two home series, the Rockies are a different animal on the road, and very poor as a road underdog. They are also the second worst team on offense in the league when on the road. Lefty Freeland has had mixed success this year, but he has pitched well in his last three starts, giving up just 4 runs in 16+ innings. As one might expect, his ERA is two runs less when pitching on the road. The Rockies’ bullpen has not been kind to him (or anyone else) lately, as Freeland has come away with just 1 win in those three games. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.20 in their last 10 games.

I have been burned on some run line wagers this year, but even considering Freeland’s recent success, the combination of Cease and a hot White Sox line up makes me wager on the Sox and the run line on Wednesday

The Braves let me down last night, losing 3-2 to the Giants. They fell behind 3-0 and were just not able to close the gap. Going 2 for 7 with runners in scoring position really hurt. When you have 10 hits, you should probably score more than two runs.

Despite losing with them last night, I’m back on the Braves here. It’s a great spot to back them. Not only do they own a 35-16 record when off a loss this year, but they are 2-0 when coming off three straight losses. That’s right, the Braves have not lost four in a row at any point in 2022. History says they’ll win tonight.

It’s not like the Giants are any good either. They’ve been a bad team to bet on (-22.2 units) and have scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games. They’ve been lucky to string together a few wins in a row, but you can’t consistently beat Atlanta with that little offense. 

Atlanta is 20-6 with Kyle Wright starting this season. Wright got away with allowing eight runs in his last trip to the mound as the Braves rallied for a 10-9 win over Oakland. Unbeaten over his last five starts, Wright had allowed just three runs in his previous four starts before going against the A’s. He’ll bounce back facing a Giants team that is hitting .207 the last week. The Braves have lost only one of Wright’s last 13 starts!

Jake Junis has a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his last three starts for San Francisco. He must contend with a much stronger lineup than what Wright will face in this matchup. Atlanta comes in as the second highest scoring team in baseball. 10*

The 8-2 Braves, off a rare 2 straight losses, travel to SF to meet the Giants. The Braves are a good road team a very solid bet to bounce back after a loss, but they face a strong starter in Giants right hander Alex Cobb. Cobb hasn’t faced the Braves this year, and has been dominant at home. He is 2-1, 2.90 ERA over his last 7 starts. The Giants haven’t scored many runs of late, with a runs scored/allowed of 2.9/3.9.

The Giants face a very good rookie pitcher in Spencer Strider. Strider has come in to his own this year, and is 5-1, 2.23 ERA in his last 7 games, with a remarkable 16 strikeouts in just 2 starts ago. He struggled against the Giants in June, a rare poor start this season. Strider is not quite as strong on the road, but has had a ton of run support this year.

Atlanta has won 3 of 4 vs. the Giants this year, all of them close. Cobb hasn’t had much run support this year, and the Giants’ bullpen have struggled to support him. The Braves are getting excellent relief pitching lately. They are one of the best teams for power, and the wind is blowing out today. I wouldn’t bet on the Braves losing 3 straight. It may be close, but take the Braves to win.

For the Broncos, it is kind of like starting school with the brand new outfit; new QB, new coach and new plan for the offense. Same old defense, which is a good thing. Rated well into the top 10, the Broncos’ defense allowed the third lowest points last year. They were particularly good against the pass, and in the red zone, but look for a new emphasis on bringing pressure to quarterbacks this year. The Broncos on offense have a powerful rushing duo in Williams and Gordon, and fine receivers. What remains to be seen is how much of an addition Wilson can be to take the Broncos to the next step and how quickly he can do it.

Much is made in the media about the Seahawks and the return of Wilson. It will be very surprising if the Seahawks thrive rather than flounder this year, and the Broncos will be a very tough opening match. As much as the Seahawks know Russell Wilson, Wilson the playmaker, also knows the Seahawks. Emotions aside, this might be the very best place for Wilson and the Broncos to start.

On offense, Seattle hopes that RB force Penny will continue as he finished last year. It is eight years since Geno Smith played as a starting quarterback, so no great expectations there. Smith did not thrive under pressure last year, and while still has some very fine targets, he is a big step back on QB for the Seahawks this year.

Look for the tough Broncos defense to hold things together early and pressure Smith, and possibly more of a running game early from the Broncos. Wilson knows why he is there, is a consummate professional and competitor, and WILL establish a pass attack. Projected scores for this match vary wildly from a grudge win by a vengeful Seattle squad to a Broncos blowout. I expect something in the middle. Take Denver to win and cover. 9*!

What to think of the Cardinals this year?  The Cardinals didn't make a ton of changes in the off season  They face a tough early schedule, and there is definitely friction around Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have a mediocre offensive line and will be missing Hopkins for the first six games as well as 2 other key targets injured or questionable..  Their day one opponent probably couldn't be worse.  Mahomes and the Chiefs don't fail on season openers, and are projected to be in the elite in the league again this year. While they lost Hill, they still have Kelce, and have added key receivers for a new look KC pass attack.  One thing that hasn't changed is the O-line, and that is a good thing.  It served Mahomes very well last year.

The Cardinals started last season as a very good defensive team, but that changed by the end of the season.  The lost some key people on defense and haven't appeared to replace them. The Cardinals have a pretty serious injury bill at the moment.  They are not especially good vs the run, so we might just see more running game from the Chiefs on Sunday.

Mahomes has something to prove after a difficult (for him) year in 2021.  He has by all reports, prepared very well, and the KC offense looked good in preseason.  Take the Chiefs to win and cover on Sunday. 9*!

The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them.  They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment,  climbing to 7th in the league in the last week.  Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late.  All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning,  The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately.

The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled.  Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each.  The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late.

The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low.  Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today.

Have the Eagles truly landed? Well, I am on Hurts and the Eagles until I see otherwise.  The Eagles have done much to bolster the team in the off season.  AJ Brown might not even be the most significant addition as they have significantly added to the defense through free agency and the draft.  Hurts needs to take that step forward this season and the Eagles brain trust has put him in the best possible position to make that step.  The Eagles now have a trio of top targets for Hurts, a very strong O-line and a dominant run game to boot. Did I mention a top 5 or 6 defense?

Run is a bit of a dirty word for the Lions.  They don't have an established run game, and they likely wont defend the run much better than last year.  Geoff, like Hurts, needs to make the next step, but the Lions, while improved, don't have the personnel to fully support him.  Their offensive line was expected to be a bright spot this year, but the injury bug has struck already.  While it likely won't be the rout we say last year, I expect the Eagles to win and cover.

The Orioles knocked off the Red Sox to stay within reach in the wildcard race. They ran in to a tough Jays team in their last series but have been very tough on sub .500 teams this year. They are also very good at home. Lyles starts for the Orioles on Saturday. He has pitched very well at 4-1, and with an ERA of 2.72/L7, but his low point lately was a 9 hit, 4 run, 4 inning appearance vs the Sox. His last two starts were very good. Lyles is a much better pitcher at home.

The 5-5 Red Sox were swept by the Rays and are now down a game in Baltimore. They were hitting very well, but have fallen off in the last week. Wacha, who has been the Sox’ best pitcher this year., starts on Saturday. He has been back from the IL for 6 starts and 5 of them were of good quality. He shut down the Orioles in August, pitching into the 6th and allowing 4 hit and no runs. Wacha has been less effective on the road, and there is a trio of Orioles hitters who have had very good success over the years.

This could be a good match-up between the starters, and it may come down to relief pitching, in which case the Orioles have a decided advantage. That and the Orioles’ home field success leads me to lean towards Baltimore. Take the Orioles to win.

Even though Illinois is at home, coming off a loss to Indiana, they probably should not be favored here. 

Now the Fighting Illini’s season did get off to a great start as they blew out Wyoming 38-6 here in Champaign. But the last second loss to Indiana last week took the wind out of their sales pretty quick. It’s a game the Illini probably should have won, but four turnovers cost them dearly.

Virginia has the best offense that Brett Bielema’s team has seen yet. The Cavaliers are led by Brennan Armstrong, a dual threat QB that can beat you with his arm or his legs. Illinois’ defense will have all sorts of problems trying to contain Armstrong, who has his top three receivers back from last year.

It wasn’t the most impressive final score as Virginia beat Richmond last week 34-17. But the offense had over 500 yards and scored 28 points by halftime. They simply took their foot off the gas in the second half, probably not wanting to show Illinois much. 

These teams met last year and Virginia won 42-14 with Armstrong throwing for 400 yards. The line was -10.5 (in favor of Virginia) for that game. I just don’t see how it could be so different here. 10*

We’ve got a Top 25 matchup in Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon with the 17th ranked Panthers hosting #24 Tennessee. Despite Pitt being at home and the higher ranked team, they are the underdog here. The bloom really came off their rose with less than stellar showing against West Virginia in the opener. It was a 31-24 win, but the Panthers needed a late pick-six and did not cover the spread.

Tennessee did cover the spread in its first game, easily defeating Ball State by a score of 59-10. The Volunteers had 38 points by halftime and 52 by the end of the third quarter. Eight different receivers caught a pass in the first half. With last year’s top rusher Jabari Smith back and four returning offensive linemen, the Vols will be able to run the ball effectively here as well.

Cause for concern if you’re a Pitt fan - not only did Tennessee average more than five yards/carry last season and West Virginia just went for 5.6 yards/carry. 

No team in America played “faster” than Tennessee did last year. Under Josh Heupel, they averaged 3.12 plays per minute! This is what I like to see when betting the Over.

No one thinks Kedon Slovis is going to be able to “replace” Kenny Pickett at Pitt, but the USC transfer threw for 300 yards against WVU. Over the course of the game, the Panthers’ offense started playing faster as well.  This game should be a shootout! 9*

South Carolina needed TWO blocked punt returns for touchdowns to get to 35 points last week against Georgia State. But the Gamecocks’ offense should be on full display this week at Arkansas, who could be down two defensive starters.

Like South Carolina, the Razorbacks won their season opener. But in defeating Cincinnati 31-24 as a 6.5-point favorites, Arkansas gave up plenty of yards (438) and honestly was fortunate not to allow more points. Six different times, the Bearcats offense crossed midfield only to come up empty. They also started a drive inside the Arkansas’ five-yard line and wound up settling for a field goal. 

But I was impressed with the Arkansas’ offense, specifically QB Jefferson, who accounted for four touchdowns last Saturday. He put up 9.3 yards per attempt last season, so a strong showing was really not that much of a surprise. Also, the Arkansas’ rushing attack seems like it won’t skip a beat, despite Trelon Smith leaving.

South Carolina’s defense was pretty bad at stopping the run in 2021 and with only one starter back along the defensive line, they figure to struggle to stop Arkansas from moving the chains.

But as I stated at the top, look for a better showing from the SC offense in this game. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler has a great set of skill position players surrounding him. Look for the Gamecocks to take advantage of a possibly depleted Arkansas secondary. 10*

Boise State turned in a truly horrible first half performance last week in Corvallis and as a result, found themselves down 24-0 going into the break. Winning the second half 17-10 was of little consequence as the Broncos ended up going down 34-17 at the hands of Oregon State. Based on that performance, I think the number is too high this week in New Mexico.

Not much is expected in Albuquerque this year. But the Lobos did start 2022 with a big 41-0 win over Maine. Now while everyone realizes that’s a FCS opponent, New Mexico did hold the Bears to 118 total yards and just 2.5 per play. UNM gained 437 yards in the game and six per play.

After just one game, there’s already some question as to who will be under center for Boise. Hank Bachmeier threw two first half interceptions last week and thus got benched for Taylen Green, who came in and threw for 155 yards. As of press time, Bachmeier is still listed as QB1. But this uncertainty about the position can’t be good for the offense.

New Mexico’s offense is all about running the ball. Look for them to control the clock, making it difficult for Boise State to pull away. Honestly, based on what we saw last week, there’s no reason to believe the Broncos will run away with this game.

A Friday night home game is a big deal for New Mexico and I’m expecting an inspired effort where they keep the game close. The Lobos seem like they’re a better football team compared to last year. The Broncos are now just 7-7 straight up their last 14 games. 9*

The 5-5 Brewers are struggling to keep pace and are down a couple of starters. They can’t hit lefties lately. Today’s pitcher, Alexander is a reliever/spot starter, who has pitched two starts recently to mixed results. His starts are short as would be expected. He gave up 3 runs over 4+ innings in his last appearance.

The Reds are off a pair of winning series, are 4-2 in September, and hitting well in recent games. We saw the Reds take off earlier in the season. They don’t usually have much success vs the Brewers, but today could be a solid opportunity for them.

Lodolo, a promising rookie left-hander, has also had some mixed results lately, but is very good when on. He has tossed a pair of 6 and 7 inning shutouts, mixed in with poorer results. Expect much more length from him than from Alexander.

Neither bullpen has been especially sharp lately, and the Brewers will need to turn to it early. With 2 of their last 3 starters lasting only 2+ innings and a double header yesterday, their relievers may be over-extended today. Take the underdog Reds to win or at least stay close today.  Reds on the run line at +1 1/2. 9*!

The Streaky Jays are on a tear again, winning 9 of 10, and are hitting well, moving back into the top 5 teams on offense in the last week. They have the very dependable veteran right-hander, Ross Stripling on the mound. Stripling has done more than was expected of him, and is 3-1, with an ERA of 2.50 over his last 7 starts. He faces Ranger’ righty Dane Dunning, who has been uneven lately, struggling in two of his last three starts.

The Rangers have won just once in 10 games and haven’t been hitting, especially vs. right-handers. Their runs for and against are 3.0/5.1 L7. Switch those numbers around and you have the Jays’ for and against production.

Toronto is in the heart of the pennant race, and players who weren’t hitting are beginning to show well. They are especially tough on right handers. Off some solid length from the starters, and with a day of rest, the bullpen is rested and has been very sharp lately. Look for the Jays to come out firing on all cylinders on Friday. A Jays win is in the offing.

What a letdown Louisville was last week. The Cardinals lost 31-7 at Syracuse in a completely misleading final. I say that not just as “sour grapes” after a bad bet, but knowing full well Louisville came away with seven points on five drives inside the Orange 40-yard line. 

Even though QB Malik Cunningham did not play great against Syracuse, the offense still averaged 6.2 yards per play. What happened is they were undone by three costly turnovers. 

Central Florida faced a FCS school in its opening game, so we really can’t make “heads or tails” of the Golden Knights just yet. But we do know they lost three of last year’s starters along the defensive line. Louisville should be able to run the ball more effectively and hold up in the face of pressure better than they did in Week 1.

Louisville won this matchup last year, 41-34 as a seven-point dog. It came down to the wire with a pick-six on the final play deciding things. I’m not saying they’ll be able to beat the Cardinals again, but all the Golden Knights need is to stay within a score. I think they do that here.

Cunningham should have a bounce back game (he had 384 yards in this game last year) and we’re getting a ton of value with Louisville being off a loss. The Cardinals are 10-4-1 ATS off a loss. 9* 

The Yankees brass must just be chewing their own livers when they see the play of lefty J P Sears in August and September. He has allowed just 8 runs over 27+innings in 5 starts since joining the A’s. What he won’t do is pitch much past the 5th. He is up against a premier starter in the White Sox’ Dylan Cease on Thursday. Cease has a 2.38 ERA in his last 7 starts, and has given up just 2 runs in 17 innings in his last 2 outings. Cease one-hit the As over 6 innings at the end of July.

After winning 6 of 8 games, the Sox still have an outside shot at a wild card spot, especially if they can take advantage of games against teams like the As. The Sox are a good road favorite this season. They are hitting well at the moment, and aren’t giving up many runs lately.

The As have won just 1 of 7 games, and unlike the Sox, are giving up nearly 6 runs a game lately. They have struggled against right-handers all year, and their bullpen has allowed some inflated numbers in recent games.

Sears has shown well recently, but the White Sox are tough on lefties, and Sears can’t match the quality of the Sox’ starter Cease. Chicago needs this game, and has been much better in all regards lately. Take the Sox to win on the run line at -1 1/2.  9*!

The Bills face the Rams on the road in what is touted as a possible prequel to this year's Super Bowl.  So what have these teams done lately? The Bills who were solid on both sides of the ball, upgraded on defense by adding Von Miller and others to an already impressive and well run defense.  What did the Rams do? certainly, they lost more than they gained.The Rams had their issues on defense last year, especially early in the season and were never much better than average over the season.  I am not convinced that the Rams won't struggle early again.

There is no doubting Stafford's abilities, but he doesn't come without a down side.  He threw more interceptions than any one last year, and he doesn't exactly spread the ball around.  He gets sacked a not inconsiderable number of times, and there are still some questions around his elbow. Allen and his running ability, and Von Miller, who will likely be in Stafford's face a lot on Thursday ,will be the difference-makers in this game.

The Bills are hungrier and with more to prove.  On the road or no, take the Bills to win and cover. 9*!

The Marlins are 1-9 in recent action and have lost 2 straight to the Phillies. They scored three runs yesterday, which was their highest total in ten games. They have their ace on the mound today which normally would have been a great opportunity to stop the bleeding. Alcantara has already pitched nearly 200 innings this year, and isn’t pitching quite as well, with an ERA of over four in his last seven starts, nor does he pitch quite as deep into games lately. His ERA is higher on the road. The Phillies are the rare team that has had success against him in the past.

The Philies are just 5-5 lately, and need the sweep to keep in the play-off race. They are hitting very welll, especially for average lately. Gibson starts for the Phillies today. He was blown out of the water in his last game, but has been a very effective pitcher this season and was 3-1 in August with a 2.30 ERA including a solid start vs the Marlins. After such a short start, he will at least be well-rested.

The Marlins recent offense is woeful at .182/.506, and they have had little success vs the Phillies. I expect Gibson to bounce back form his last start, and possibly a sub-par performance from Alcantara. The Marlins bullpen has struggled in recent games, with an ERA of over six in their last five games. Take the Phillies to win .

The Nationals have played much better in September, winning series vs the Mets and A’s, and splitting the first 2 games of their present series. They haven’t been good as a road underdog this season and have struggled vs. left-handed pitching. The 8-2 Cardinals are very strong at home, and are 3-1 vs the Nat’s this year. Both teams are hitting well lately; the Nationals have the advantage for average and the Cards, for power.

Left-hander Montgomery starts for the Cardinals today. Other than a poor outing against the Braves, Montgomery has been lights out since joining the Cards, winning 5 of 6 games and allowing just 1 run total in those 5 victories. The Nationals have not faced Montgomery before, so advantage goes to the pitcher. Look for a solid 6 innings from him today.

Cory Abbot starts for the Nationals. Usually a reliever, Abbot started 4 games in August, to mixed results. His last start vs. the Cubs, a 2 run, 6 inning effort, was his best and longest appearance.

It would be hard to go against Montgomery and the Cards at home, and the odds-makers would certainly agree. St. Louis has the superior starter and a formidable bullpen at the moment. Take the Cardinals on the run line today. 9*!

It has been a long season for the Tigers, and they have continued to struggle in September. They flounder for the season as a home underdog, and have been badly outscored in their last three games. Prior to Tuesday, they had managed less than 2 runs on average over their last 5 games. The starters have been poor, with short starts and the bullpen, overworked.

The 7-3 Angels have looked much better of late, hitting for power and getting very good pitching. In addition to great length from the starters, the relief pitching has been outstanding.

Lefty Sandoval starts for the Angels on Wednesday. He has been excellent everywhere but in the win column, especially lately, with an ERA of 2.63 in his last 7 games. He has pitched well into games, and shut out the Tigers with a 4 hit, 9 inning gem in August.

Sandoval faces the Tigers’ Hutchison, who is also capable of a quality start, and has delivered lately with an ERA of 3.13 in his last 7 appearances. He doesn’t commonly offer the length that Sandoval would.

Offense might not be the name of the game on Wednesday, but if it does come, it will likely be from the Angels. Sandoval is a better bet and the Angels’ pen has been super. They rung up the Tigers to the tune of 10-0 just two games ago. Look for the Angels to win and cover on the run line.

Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff is off an unusually poor start where he gave up five runs in Arizona. I know that Woodruff has been inconsistent on the road all season and this is Coors Field, but I still expect him to lead the Brewers to an easy win over the Rockies in Tuesday’s series opener.

The odds clearly reflect who is the better team here. Colorado is not just 22 games under .500, they’ve been outscored by 142 runs over the course of the season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is desperately trying to climb back into Wild Card position. They are currently two games behind Philadelphia and San Diego. Missing the playoffs would be terrible for a team that led its division for more than half the season. 

It’s a good bet to expect Woodruff to bounce back here. Before that last start, he had not given up more than three runs since early May. 

There’s a huge edge for Milwaukee with Woodruff on the mound tonight. The Rockies are going with Chad Kuhl, who is having a bad year. Kuhl having a 9.20 ERA over his last three starts makes him an even more appealing fade.

As we saw last night, when they scored six runs in their win, getting to swing the bats at Coors Field should provide ample opportunity for the Brewers to score runs. Visiting teams are averaging 5.7 runs/game here. Christian Yelich is also now healthy and back in the lineup. Meanwhile, Colorado is without Jose Iglesias, its top hitter. 10*

I realize that it’s difficult to drum up any interest in Pittsburgh, a team that has lost four in a row as well as eight of its last ten games. But wait until you hear about the success they’ve had in the past against Mets starter Taijuan Walker!

In three career starts vs. the Pirates, Walker is winless and has a 7.94 ERA. 

Now I obviously cannot make a play solely based on that small sample size. But here’s the thing. Walker is a pitcher that you’d want to bet against anyway. His ERA post-All Star Break is 6.10. This seems to be a disturbing trend for him as he carried a 7.10 ERA in the second half of last season. 

Walker has made it through six innings just once in his last five starts. This is another problem for the Mets because their bullpen has not been good for the last month or so.

The Pirates are going with Mitch Keller as their starter for Tuesday. Keller has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts this year and has a 3.19 ERA over the previous nine. So he can keep his team in this one. Before yesterday’s game got rained out, the Mets had suffered back to back 7-1 losses - at home - to the Nationals. Grab the +1.5 in this one. The Mets are overpriced. 9* 

A pair of low-flyers open a series today. The Tigers, on the road, have won just 1 of 6 games; the Angels are better at 6-4. Neither team has hit well at all lately. The Tigers are very poor as a road underdog, but the Angels, in the rare circumstances that it occurs, are good as a home favorite.

Tigers’ lefty Alexander returned to a starting role in August with some success early in the month, but has struggled in his last two games, lasting just 7+ innings and allowing 9 runs. His ERA for the month is 5.58, and his numbers are much worse on the road.

Jose Suarez, another lefty, starts for the Angels. Suarez has had mixed success this season, but has pitched effectively in August, going 3-2, with an ERA of 2.51. He generally pitches into the 6th inning. The Angels have been getting solid pitching lately, including their bullpen, whose ERA is a sharp 2.12 in the last two weeks. The Tigers’ relievers have a collective ERA of more than double that in the same time period.

I favor Suarez and the Angels today. They showed especially well vs. the Jays and Yankees, and they seem to finally be on the upswing. Alexander’s numbers appear to be going in the wrong direction, and his last starts have been short. Take the Angels to win outright.

The Guardians have picked the wrong time to fall of a ledge, but have now lost 4 straight, and 7 of 9. While they have faced tough pitching lately, their offense numbers are very low, just  ERA of over .216/.561 OPS over the last two weeks. While they aren’t hitting they are at least tough to score against, allowing just over 3.5 runs a game /L7. The Royals, 5-5 L10, are just the reverse, hitting .272 /.826 OPS over the last two weeks, but with a struggling bullpen.

Tristan McKenzie is pitching for the Guardians. After a magnificent run, he has taken a slight step back, with an ERA of 3.18 over the last 7 games. That ERA is still more than acceptable, but pales when compared to his hot streak. McKenzie has already pitched more than 150 innings, well above his total from his first full year in 2021. He shut out the Royals when he faced them in July. McKenzie does not pitch as well on the road.

Royals’ right- hander Brady Singer had a rough 4 inning, 4 run start the last time out, but other than that he has been very solid of late with an ERA of 2.45 L7 games. Singer is a much better pitcher at home, and has had good success vs the Guardians.

I would be all over the Royals as an underdog on Monday if it weren't for the KC bullpen, ERA of over 5 in the last two weeks.  Singer can often pitch 6 or 7 innings, and the bullpen came through in the last 2 games, however I will temper my enthusiasm and take the Royals on the run line at +1 1/2. 9*

Two years ago, Clemson hung 73 points on Georgia Tech in what was utter humiliation for the Yellow Jackets. But last year, the game ended just 14-8 in Clemson’s favor. That was an early sign that it might be a “down year” for Dabo’s Tigers, who lost three of their first seven games. 

But Clemson ended 2021 on a 6-0 run and now seems primed to have a bounce back season. The defense was NOT the problem last season (only 14.8 points/game allowed) and should be one of the very best in the country for ‘22. 

Meanwhile, it’s been a pretty ugly three seasons for Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech. Especially when facing Clemson. Transitioning away from the triple option (to a spread offense) has not gone all that well in Atlanta. Incredibly, the Yellow Jackets have scored a combined 29 points in the last three meetings with Clemson. I’m not expecting them to score a ton tonight either.

Therefore, I’ll ride with the Under here. Georgia Tech’s offensive line is young and two of the top three receivers from last year are gone. I don’t see them doing well against what is perhaps the nation’s best offensive line.

Clemson’s offense wasn’t that great last year and I don’t see them scoring 40+ points tonight. Play the Under.