I like the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Over is 8-2-1 this season when either of these teams are on three or more days rest. The Lakers last played on Friday while the Nuggets finished off the Suns back on Thursday.

The Over is also now 29-17 in Lakers’ road games. That includes 3-0 in the Warriors’ series. 

Denver, who comes in averaging 118.7 points/game at home, is going to look to push the pace. They are also shooting better than 50% in all games FOR THE YEAR! 

The Lakers are also going to push pace. In fact they play at the fastest pace of any of the four remaining teams. They spend roughly 1/5 of their time in transition. 

Granted, it was the regular season and the games were back in December and January. But the last two times these teams played, the O/U closed at 238 and 237. There’s clear value on the Over here. 10*

The Braves and Rangers went Over the total on Monday with the former doing ALL of the lifting, scoring 12 runs in a complete beatdown of the AL West leaders.

Today, I’m looking at another Over, only this time the number of runs scored should be a bit more evenly distributed. 

The Braves are 16-6 on the road where they average 5.8 runs per game. They’ll face Dane Dunning, who has been better than expected so far (filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom) and a Rangers’ bullpen that they beat up on as well yesterday. It was five 2-run homers for Atlanta in the series opener.

For the Braves’ sake, they better hope they are swinging the bats well again. Because starter Jared Shuster has given up four runs each of his first two starts and neither time he made it a full five innings.

Texas is the highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 10*

It is hard to believe, but the Mighty Padres have gone under in 10 straight games.  The Royals are 6-3 below par in their last nine.  Th Padres just plain can't hit right-handers and they face a competent one in Keller on Monday.  He has sandwiched a pair of fine outings around a dog of a start vs the A's.  (It is peculiar and frustrating how many times a good pitcher will struggle against such a poor team as the A's).  Keller is wild, but the Padres are hardly the most patient of teams.  The Padres will run out Wacha who is looking more and more like the pitcher of last year, with three straight quality appearances.  The Padres' pen has been very good and the Royals surprisingly competent lately.  Take Monday's game to go under the total.

The Kraken have been a much tougher nut to crack in the playoffs than anyone expected.  The Stars came in as favored, but the series has see-sawed wildly in wins.  The only consistent factor is the over, and I expect another one today. Goal tending and the Kraken offense have been the keys in  Series two.  The Settle goal tending was always suspect, and Grubauer, after a terrific first series, has reverted to an .865 save %  against the Stars.  Oettinger who was expected to excel in the postseason, has been pulled twice and has exactly the same .865 save % as Grubauer.  The high totals are perhaps not so surprising as these were the 5th and 7th ranked offenses, however the Stars' inability to control Seattle with one of the league's elite defenses is an eye-opener.  I am not going to second guess this one.  Take game seven to again go over.

My run on totals is up to 13-3.  This is your chance to jump on board.  Skinner, tonight’s likely Oilers goalie, has alternated good with abysmal starts.  This is his turn for a good one. He has had save %s of .962 and .968 for his great starts.  We won’t talk about his bad starts.  Nurse will return from his suspension which should solidify the Oilers' back end. 

 Aidan Hill has had a .926 save % in his last 10 starts.  Pietrangelo and Kolesar have got their owlies out, so that should limit the power play chances for the Oilers.  The Knights have managed to limit the damage from Edmonton’s top scoring duo in most recent action. That combined with the fact that Vegas plays a different kind of lockdown game on the road should combine with all of the above to create a low event game for game 6. 

Three of the last 4 games of this series have been under.  In the last 8 meetings between these clubs, the under is 6-1-1.  Join me for another fine total selection. We should see a tense, much tighter,  more defensive tonight, especially from the last chance Oilers.The Under is the call for tonight’s game.

Going back to last Saturday, NBA home teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. The only two SU losses both came in this series, the last two games where Philadelphia won Game 5 in Boston and then the Celtics returned the favor at Philly in Game 6. 

I look for “order” to be restored in Game 7, however. What a brutal loss for the 76ers Thursday as they shot 36.1% overall from the field including 8 of 34 (23.5%) from three. I had the Under, so I was happy with the final score being 95-86. 

The Celtics being +21 from beyond the three-point line was huge in Game 6. Since Game 1, there hasn’t been a game in the series where they were outscored from three. 

76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers has blown three 3-1 series leads in his career. This would be “just” 3-2, but I have little confidence in Doc. He has lost NINE Game 7’s, by far the most of any coach in history. Home teams also win Game 7 at a very high percentage. 

The Celtics won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing 14 of his first 15 shot attempts. You’ve got to figure he’ll shoot much better at home Sunday. Boston is the better team. 10* 

Neither of Sunday's starters was especially good in their previous start, but my money is on Sandoval to bounce back.  The left-hander has thrown some fine starts this year, with solid length.  The Guardians' rookie right hander Bibee pitched well in his first two starts but got a major league comeuppance in his last appearance.  In spite of their 6 run eighth inning on Saturday, the Guardians are still in the doldrums on offense, averaging just over 2 runs a game in their nine games previous to Saturday.  They've struggled at home this year and haven't had much recent success vs left-handed pitching.  The Angels are a much better hitting team, and very tough on vs right handers.  Look For the Halos to bounce back with a road victory.

My run on totals in the NHL playoffs is up to 12-3.  I couldn’t believe my good fortune when I saw an over of 5.5 (-120) for Saturday.  I couldn’t write this pick quickly enough.  Dallas, in their last 10 games has averaged a total of 7 goals a game.  Seattle isn’t far behind at 6.8.  As a favorite Dallas’ games have averaged a total of 6.4 goals per game.  As a dog Seattle’s totals have averaged 6.5 per game. Overs are 4-0 for the L4 games in Seattle and 8-0 for the L8 meetings between these two clubs.  And then the clincher for me, Dallas is 5-0-1 on overs for their L6 and Seattle is 5-0 in their last 5. 

Although both clubs were just below .500 for overs against all opponents during the regular season, the playoffs seem to be a different story.  The intensity, physicality and pressure all seem to conspire to create high event hockey.  Jump on the over.

The Cubs won Game 1, but they'll face the ace on Saturday, with Twins' lefty Joe Ryan coming to the mound.  Ryan has been terrific this season with a 2.45 era.  He has allowed just 2 runs over 12 innings in May. His opponent Wesneski has really come around  after a rough start, pitching into the 6th and allowing just a a single run in each of three starts. He can match Ryan with a very low 1.50 ERA in May.

The Twins have just moved into the cellar in OPS/ L7 days.  The Cubs are again creeping up the ranks all the way to 6th in offense over the last week.  The Cubs are also getting especially fine work from the relievers.  Ryan and the Twins are moderately favored, but I am wagering on the relatively unknown Wesneski and the superior offense of the Cubs to steal this one on the road.

I don’t understand why the oddsmakers moved this number so low. For the first five games of the series, the closing O/U line has ranged from 223.5 to 229.5. The “low water mark” was the last game, which went Over as the Warriors stayed alive via a 121-106 win and cover.

I understand that both teams shot pretty well in Game 5. Golden State ended up at 51.1% overall and 37.1% from three while Los Angeles was 48.3% and 37.0%. We may not see BOTH teams shoot that well again tonight.

But Game 6 is in LA and the Warriors (as you know) have been dreadful on the road all season (12-34 SU, 14-32 ATS). The primary reason for those dreadful results has been the defense. On the road, the Dubs are allowing roughly 10 points/game more than what they are allowing at home. That is why the Over is 29-15 in all Warriors’ road games. 

One positive for Golden State is that Steph Curry is just 6 of 25 from three the last two games. I say “positive” because you’ve got to expect he’s not going three games in a row shooting that poorly from distance. The team still scored 121 last game with Curry going 3 for 11 on 3PA and not attempting a single free throw.

Golden State did only average 99 points in the two prior games here in LA. But, for the year, they are putting up 117.3 points/game away from home. Expect a better offensive effort from the Warriors here and that leads to this game going Over the total. 10*

There will be no love lost between these two teams in Game five.  Pietrangelo's bizarre attack may galvanize the Oilers, who really stepped it up with their speed and size on Wednesday, limiting Vegas' puck-moving ability. The Knights will miss him more than the Oilers will miss Nurse today. Oilers' net minder Skinner bounced back with a fine start in Game four, but he has had trouble stringing two solid efforts together.  Vegas' goalie will likely be a game time decision, but none have thrived in this series.  The Oilers were much better on the road this season, and have had very good success in Vegas.  If anyone benefits from a choppy game with extra penalties it will be them.  Edmonton took charge in the Kings series in Game 5 and I believe they will do the same today. Look for the Oilers to string a pair of wins together and take today's matchup on the road.

The Knicks staved off elimination once, now let’s see if they can do it again Friday on the road. They obviously come into Miami as underdogs, but that’s okay considering the Heat’s somewhat lousy 22-37-2 ATS mark as favorites this season. I’m taking the points in Game 6 tonight.

It was just a three-point lead at halftime for the Knicks in Game 5 as they got off to a really slow start (just 14 pts in the 1Q). From there, they took control in the second half, going up by as many as 19 before Miami made a late push. The trio of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle once again carried the scoring load (88 combined points) with Brunson’s 38 leading the way. The Knicks also shot much better than normal from three (38.2%), at least by this series’ standard.

I don’t necessarily expect NY to shoot as well from three tonight. But I also don’t expect them to fall into an early hole like they did in the last game. Playing for their season, you know you’re getting their best effort for 48 minutes. I also have my doubts about Miami, who isn’t capable of scoring a ton without Jimmy Butler going off.

The Heat are only shooting 43% from the field in this series and 31% from three. I’m not exactly sure why this spread is larger than both Games 3 and 4 at home. 

Going back to the start of the series against Cleveland, the Knicks are allowing just 100.1 points/game. Given that points figure to be at a premium again tonight, I want to be on the dog. 8* 

I am again confident on this one despite going 1-1 last night.  This is my first under in awhile but the sports books have been taking a beating and they offered up a generous one to try and turn the tide. 

That combined with the new approach Toronto is taking to protect their young goaltender, Woll.  12 different Leafs blocked shots last game as a key point in their heroic defending.  That combined with the fact that Toronto’s core 4 forwards can’t seem to get untracked with Florida’s physical and smothering defense indicates a low event affair tonight. 

Also of note is that all 4 games in this series have been under, Toronto has been under for their last 6 and head to head the Panthers and Leafs are 6-0 on unders for their last 6.  The Leafs may be under the gun to extend this series and you can pick under with confidence for tonight’s match up.

While his ERA wouldn't suggest it, Tyler Anderson has had some good starts this year, including his last two.  It looks like he is back on track after a three game rough patch.  Cleveland's young lefty Logan Allen is off to a solid first season, but he was hit harder in his third start, and may be due for a rookie regression today.  The Guardians' main problem is offense: they just plain can't hit, especially left-handers recently (.141 BA L10).  The Angels' forte is hitting.  They are a top eight offense, and have had good results vs southpaws of late. While their starters have struggled, the Angels have been getting very good relief pitching recently.  Look for  another solid start for Anderson and an Angels' road win.

The Suns need to win Game 6 to stay alive and I think they will, with room to spare, so I’m laying the points.

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have both been other-worldly in this series, combining to average 65 points/game. The thing is they need help. Last home game they got help from Landry Shamet, who scored 19 thanks to making five threes. Whether it’s Shamet or someone else on this Suns’ roster, expect someone to “lend a helping hand” at home tonight.

Denver is 40-7 SU at home, but they are sub-.500 on the road with the scoring differential going from +10.3 at home to -3.0 on the road. So that’s why there’s such a drastic change in the spread from the last game to this one. 

In the two previous home games in this series, Phoenix averaged 125 points on 53% shooting. Denver is simply not the same team defensively on the road as they are at home. 

At home and trailing in the series, the Suns are a perfect 3 for 3 ATS. 10*

Dallas is a heavy favorite tonight, but the Kraken are a much better team on the road, and a very good candidate to bounce back after a loss this season. The total has edged up to 6 today; not surprising as every game has gone well over in the series.  Grubauer did not look sharp in Game four, and was pulled after 40 minutes.  He has been much less successful vs Dallas with a save % under .900 in three of four games this series.  The same could be said of Oettinger, with a surprisingly low  save % of .860.   Fatigue could be a factor; the young goalie has played a ton of hockey this year.    Seattle still managed three goals in spite of the Stars limiting the Kraken to just 19 shots.  The Kraken continue to surprise on offense, and with McCann back, offense could still be the name of the game tonight.  With the topsy turvy nature of wins in the playoffs, I am hesitant to pick a side today but I am big on the total.  Take the Kraken and Stars to again go over.

Boston’s season is on the line tonight in Game 6, but they’ll have to go on the road to force a Game 7. At home in Game 5, it was a bad shooting night overall (and from three), thus I’m not expecting dramatic improvement tonight in Philadelphia.

But, strangely enough, I don’t think the 76ers will match their Game 5 shooting in Boston, which saw them go 50.6% from the field and 40% from three. Both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have been inconsistent for them throughout this series and expecting both to have big games tonight, I think, is a mistake.

Outside of Game 1, where both teams came out and shot the lights out, this has been a pretty low-scoring series. Over the last four games, we’ve seen no more than 218 total points scored in regulation.  Remember  that Game 4 here in Philly went to overtime and was tied 107-107 at the end of 48 minutes.

So I’m looking at the Under here in Game 6. Lost in the shuffle of Philly’s Game 5 upset is that the teams combined for 61 free throw attempts. Don’t think we’ll see that number duplicated tonight.

Most trends to point towards the Over, however, Boston is 7-1 to the Under following a double digit loss at home. Also, NBA Playoff Game 6’s where you have a home underdog coming off a Game 5 win - the Under has gone 5-2 the last seven times. 10* 

Every game this series has been over 5.5 and yet the sports books keep offering it to us and we’ll keep taking it. These two teams have averaged a total of 8 goals/game. Whether the Devils start Schmid or Vanecek doesn’t matter to me. Both have struggled in their last 10 and are barely above .500. Not a good look for the playoffs. So even though Carolina is not the most high octane offense they have consistently got to both goalies. And the Devils have the 4th ranked power play while the Canes penalty kill is 20th ranked. So the Devils should score their share as well. All bodes well for my record with this pick and another total above 5.5 for a fifth consecutive game.

All of a sudden the Royals can hit.  And win games at home.  They have taken three of four from the lowly White Sox who have been just average in offense and very poor in the starting and relief pitching departments. Singer will start for the Royals.  Much was expected this year but quality starts have been rare.  The ERA (8.00+) and opposition BA (.300+) says it all.  Clevinger will start for the White Sox.  He has had mixed results this season, with two of his last three starts of the poor to fair department. He has not pitched well on the road this year.
The bullpens are both in the dumpster this season, with the Sox' particularly poor lately.  The Royals have scored 23 runs in three games against the White Sox, but the White Sox will likely get their chances on Thursday.  I expect another high-scoring game. Take the total to go over.

The see-saw nature of the Oilers/Knights series continued with Vegas stymying the Oilers in Edmonton, allowing just a single goal.  Vegas is a very tough out in away games, and they held the Oilers power play to no goals, while limiting penalties.  Adin Hill replaced Broissoit, and was perfect in game three as he was in the third period of game two.

Skinner was sub-par in game three.  In spite of his fine performance in the previous game, the Oilers have to be wondering about their young goal tender, who has now started 12 straight games.  There is no doubt that the Oilers will be all in tonight, but superior net-minding and their solid defensive road style should at least keep the Knight close in this one.  Take Vegas on the puck line at +1 1/2. 10*

Golden State’s season is on the line tonight after blowing a double digit lead on the road in Game 4. They led the Lakers by as many as 12 in the second half, but a second straight uncharacteristically poor performance at the offensive end doomed them. 

In the two games down in LA, the Warriors shot below 30% from three. Steph Curry was only 3 of 14 on 3PA in Game 4. Now back home, you’ve got to expect a better showing at the offensive end from Curry and his teammates. After all, they are 36-10 straight up and 30-16 ATS at the Chase Center in 2022-23. 

But much of the reason the Warriors are so much better at home than on the road is because of their defense. They are basically allowing 10 fewer points/game at home compared to the road. 

The Lakers are not an efficient team offensively and have shot worse than 30% from three in all but three playoff games. 

After back to back road losses in Sacramento in the first round, the Warriors responded with a 17-point win here at home. Up 3-1 in the first round vs. Memphis, the Lakers lost Game 5 (on the road) by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* 

Two fine  starters square off in today"s Cardinals/Cubs match. The Cards' Lefty Montgomery has struggled in just one of seven starts this season.  He has been especially tough lately allowing just three runs in eighteen + innings. Definitely not a victim of the long ball , he has allowed just two dingers  to date.  The Cubs' Steele has, if anything, been even better.  His 1.45 ERA ranks with anyone in the league.  Neither offense has been particularly successful against left-handers lately, and the bullpens (especially the Cubs') have been very solid.  Take the Cubs and Cardinals to go under the total today! 9*!

The Knicks got strong performances out of Julius Randle (20 points), Jalen Brunson (32) and R.J. Barrett (24) in Game 4, but the rest of the team combined to score only 25 points and as a result, they are down 3-1 in this best of seven series.

But the good news is that Game 5 is at Madison Square Garden. Last time here, the Knicks won 111-105 and shot 40% from three. The other three games have seen dreadful three-point shooting from NY. My hope here is that we’ll see a shooting effort along the lines of Game 2.

I also don’t think the Knicks will be outrebounded the way they were in the two games at Miami. In the regular season, New York was the #2 rebounding team in the entire NBA. 

Defensively, the Knicks have little to worry about. They’ve given up an average of just 99.7 points/game this postseason, which is pretty remarkable in 2023. Miami hasn’t exactly shot the lights out in this series either, though Jimmy Butler has carried the load offensively. 

I’m not really a believer in this Heat team, which is an 8-seed and was on the verge of losing to Chicago in the play-in tournament. They had a negative point differential and net efficiency in the regular season. Them making a Conference Final (would be first 8-seed to do so since 1999) would be rather shocking to me. 10*

Toronto is on the ropes, down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. Everyone, against all the evidence expects them to finally push back and pull off a win. But with their top goalie injured all playoffs and now their second stringer, Samsonov injured as well, young Joseph Woll is thrown into the breach. His NHL career consists of 11 regular season and 2 playoff games. He lost both playoff games. Meanwhile, Bobrovsky has won 6 straight, all but one with a save % over .917. Florida is also 5-0 in their last 5 after a win, and 7-0 when their opponent scores 2 in the previous game. In the 3rd period and OT of game 3 against the Leafs, the Panthers’ scratch and claw style smothered a dispirited bunch of Toronto’s finest. There is nothing to indicate this will change in game 4. Bring out the brooms.

The Cleveland offense is utterly in doldrums so it will take a very good pitching effort to earn a win.  They are particularly poor vs lefties lately.   Rookie right-hander Battenfield (4.07 ERA) pitched well in his last appearance, but it hasn't been all smooth sailing so far.  Still, he has had a reasonable start to his first season.

The Tigers' offense is only marginally better  than the Guardians' for the season, but they have stepped it up lately.  They'll run out their ace lefty Rodriguez, who has allowed just a minuscule two runs in his last thirty-five innings pitched.  Mr. Dependable just needs some run support.   The Tigers' pen has been performing well of late, although Rodriguez, off an eight inning start, may not need much support from the relievers.

Rodriguez as an underdog against one of the weakest hitting teams in the league?  Jump on the 6-4 Tigers to steal this one on the road.

Phoenix has come back to tie this series up 2-2, but they have needed herculean efforts from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, plus a breakout effort from Landry Shamet in Game 4. 

Durant and Booker have combined for a ridiculous 273 points in this series with Booker shooting 66.7% from three and 34 of 43 overall the last two games. Shamet’s breakthrough in Game 4 came out of nowhere (he’d scored just 14 points total this postseason, previously!)

I just can’t see Durant and Booker continuing that pace, Booker specifically, and the Suns’ role players are unlikely to contribute much with the series moving back to Denver.

At home, the Nuggets are allowing just 108.5 points/game for the year, second best in the league. They are simply a much better team at home where they’ve gone 39-7 SU (+10.2 PPG) as opposed to 20-25 SU (-3.0 PPG) on the road.

Nikola Jokic (53 points in Game 4) won’t be suspended, so he’s a go. It’s also time for someone on the Nuggets other than Jokic or Jamal Murray to step up. Similar to Shamet for Phoenix in the last game, I expect someone will. Certainly, Denver will get more than 11 bench points tonight. Lay the points. 10*

The last game surprised in many ways. Oettinger looking so shaky, Dallas so vulnerable without Heiskinen, and so many different Kraken scoring at will. That second period seemed to take the wind out of the Stars’ sails. Coach Deboer is a master at making between game adjustments. Even if Heiskinen plays, the injury could affect his offensive and defensive abilities. Seattle has some confidence now and the home crowd to boost them even more. With the possibility of Grubauer coming back down to earth as well, all of this bodes well for a high event, high scoring game. The over is 6-0 for the last six games between these foes. Dallas averaged 3.83 goals and Seattle average 4.0 goals over that span. The total set at 5.5 seems like a gift. Take the over and make like a bandit.

Seattle thought they had one in the bag last night as they led 1-0 most of the way. That run was scored in the bottom of the first, but unfortunately for the Mariners, it would also be the last time they crossed the plate. Texas rallied for two runs in the seventh and got the win, continuing their hot start to the season.

But it should be pointed out that not only did M’s starter Logan Gilbert shut the Rangers out for six innings last night, he had a perfect game going as well. At one point, seven straight Rangers struck out. 

Tonight, I’m expecting another strong outing from a Mariners starting pitcher, that being George Kirby. He is coming off five consecutive quality starts and has a 0.98 WHIP this season. 

Additionally, Kirby is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in four prior starts vs. Texas, all of them coming last season, his rookie campaign.

Andrew Heaney is on the mound tonight for the Rangers. He is coming off his worst outing of 2023 and has a 4.41 ERA in 15 career starts vs Seattle. After allowing six runs to Arizona in that last start, Heaney’s ERA is sitting at 5.52 for the season. 10*

This series is now tied up 2-2. Philadelphia won Game 4, 116-115 in OT, after blowing all of a 16-point lead. The line closed as a pick, so it was a sweat for those on the Sixers. Over bettors didn’t actually need overtime as the game was tied 107-107 at the end of regulation (total closed 213.5). 

The teams combined to shoot 30 of 78 from three, the best shooting we’ve seen from distance in this series since Game 1. Boston shot slightly better overall, but could not get off a final shot in OT. 

Back home, the Celtics should tighten up defensively. After allowing 92 points through the first three quarters on Sunday, they held the Sixers to just 15 in the fourth on 31.6% shooting.

Philly’s offense has also been very inconsistent in this series, specifically James Harden, who has two 40+ point games (Gms 1 and 4) but scored just 28 points total in Gms 2 and 3. 

Boston shot 58% in Game 1 and dominated the paint, but that was when Philadelphia didn’t have Joel Embiid. The Celtics’ edge in points in the paint has dropped dramatically over the last three games. The Under is 5-2 the last seven meetings here in Boston. 8* 

The Devils woke up on home ice, pounding two of the three Canes' goalies.  It remains to be seen if Raanta can go in game four or if Carolina will return to Andersen.  If it is anything like last series, it will be difficult for the Hurricanes to stuff the Devils' scoring genie back in the bottle, so we could be in for a wild ride in game Five.  NJ will come out flying again. Hughes broke out with four points, but New Jersey got scoring from a variety of sources.  Even Vanacek chipped in with an assist.  I have no faith in either of the Devils' netminders to limit Carolina.  I expect another barn burner with plenty of scoring. Game five will go over the total, possibly well over.

The last two games of this series have both been blowouts, each team winning at home. The Warriors now look to bounce back in Game 4 and even the series at two games apiece. I like the defending champs plus the points.

It was a horrible shooting night for Golden State in Game 3 as they made only 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three. They were also -20 in FT attempts. Meanwhile, the Lakers shot 52.5% from three and were an uncharacteristic 48.4% from three.

I say “uncharacteristic” because six of the previous seven games saw LA shoot worse than 30% from three. 

Anthony Davis had 25 points last game, 11 of those coming from the charity stripe. Davis has yet to have back to back games this postseason with 20+ points. 

I know that Golden State has generally been terrible on the road this year, but they have won at least one road game in every series since Steve Kerr took over, including two in Sacramento last round. This is a team known for bouncing back from a bad loss. 10* 

Man, was Marlins lefty Garrett roughed up in his last game, especially after a good start to his season. 11 runs, and4 HR allowed in 4+ innings has got to rattle a young pitcher's confidence.  He hasn't pitched for length, which could be a problem today.  While the Marlins usually have a strong bullpen, a 14 inning game yesterday and a bullpen day on Saturday will leave the pen seriously short-staffed.  Arizona starter Zac Gallen has hit his stride.  After a poor opening day, he has been tough to beat, with an impressive 57-5 K/BB ratio and a tiny .84 WHIP.  The Diamondbacks have impressed on offense  and are ranked 6th in the league at the moment.  Their weak spot has been their bullpen, but Gallen will likely give them length as a starter.  The Marlins are again a light hitting team, ranked dead last in Runs/9.   After that fourteen inning game and travel time, they could be a little weary.  Take the D-backs on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Golden Knights could not contain the Oilers' high octane offense and their potent power play in Game two.  What was surprising was the Oilers, who are often defensively suspect, limiting the Knights to a single goal.  Vegas has been a much better away team this season, playing a tighter more disciplined style on the road that is very suitable to the playoffs.  They are a very well-coached team with an ability to adjust on the fly.   While the Oilers are a heavy favorite today, I am not ready to count Vegas out.  I think the Knights will focus on slowing down the Oilers down, at the cost of total goals.  The total went under in Game two, and an even higher number is available today. Look for a tighter checking game and take the total to go under.

The Heat won by 19 in Game 3, but it was pretty terrible shooting all-around as both teams shot below 40% from the field and 22% from three. It’s difficult to imagine that level of shooting being repeated, so I’m definitely looking for more scoring tonight in Game 4. 

One player we can count on to score is Jimmy Butler. Ironically, the Heat standout missed Game 2 and that was the one game in this series that has gone Over. But Butler has scored 25 points in each of his last nine games played and he had 30 in all but one game in the first round vs. Milwaukee. 

Game 3 marked the first time all postseason that Butler didn’t shoot 50% from the field. 

Each of the Knicks’ top three players (Barrett, Brunson, Randle) underperformed in the last game and they were a combined 2 of 17 from three. At least one player from that group is going to shoot much better tonight, if not all three.

Miami is 4-0 to the Over when leading the series this postseason. 10*

The Rays' bats aren't quite as formidable in recent games, but they still have the top offense for the season.  They will face some stiff opposition in the home-side Orioles, but, not to fear, the Ray's will run out their ace McClanahan on Monday.  He is a premier lefty off to a banner season.  He is 6-0, .203 ERA, over fifty strikeouts, etc. etc.  There is no reason to suggest a change from consistent quality.  The Orioles' Gibson is a different story.  Anywhere from superlative to poor is possible, and his last two starts have gone in the wrong direction.  Both teams have solid pens, good offense, but the Rays have that irritating ability to manufacture a win in almost any situation.  Tampa hasn't had much success in Baltimore, but I will take McClanahan against anyone.  Rays, as usual, to win.

The Stars were dominant in their Game two win, much better than the score would suggest.  Oettinger bounced back as expected, but the Stars also limited the Kraken to eighteen less shots.  Dallas was very good as a road favorite this season, while the Kraken were just 6-11 as a home underdog.  The Stars are healthy and were much the better team on offense in Game two, scoring four times on Grubauer  The Seattle goalie's save % has dropped  considerably to .890 in Round two.   The Kraken's 40 goal scorer, McCann, is still questionable to return on Sunday.  As  good as the Kraken's offense has been, I am banking on Oettinger and the Dallas defense today.  Take Dallas to win on the road.

I don’t think that the Suns should feel all that bad about being down 2-1 in this best of seven series. Chris Paul is out, they’ve gotten next to NOTHING from anybody outside of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and are shooting below 30% from three for the series. 

If there was a time that SOMEONE would step up alongside Durant and Booker, it would be here at home. I also expect we’ll start to see that 3-point % start to improve.

As for Denver, they scored 114 points in the Game 3 loss despite subpar overall shooting (44.3%). Over the last two games, the Nuggets are just 17 of 57 from three. 

Going back to the end of the regular season, the Over is on an 8-2-1 run in Suns’ games.

With the expectation that both teams will see improvement in three-point shooting and the fact they combined for 235 points in the last game, I’ll gladly hop on the Over here. 10*

The Devils bounced back after a poor start in the first series and are favored today, but the Hurricanes really seem to have New Jersey's number in this series.  The Devils' goalie situation is pretty ugly.  Neither net minder was effective in Game two, and Schmid's run would seem to have come to an end. I do think that the Devils will  score more than  one goal today; they certainly responded on offense upon returning home in the first series.  The Canes, despite missing some key pieces on offense, are getting scoring from a range of players at the moment.  They have been absolutely tenacious on the forecheck, and I don't see them taking their foot off the gas.  We have seen the over in both games of the series despite very limited offense from the Devils.  Carolina will again get their opportunities against whoever is in net.  I am wagering on the over today.

The Twins and Guardians both start solid pitchers on Sunday.  Joe Ryan is 5-0, and off a 6 inning shutout in his last appearance.  Quantrill also had a fine start last time out, and both teams are getting quality relief pitching.  The Guardians have the worst offense in the league, and while they "broke out" for four runs on Saturday, they have otherwise managed just nine runs in their previous five games.  The Twins aren't hitting well either at just .204 over their last 10 games.  The under is a result in nine of the last ten Guardians games, and is also 11-4 when these two teams meet.  Let's not buck the trend today.  Take the Under on Sunday.

The Twins' starter Ryan has given length, strikeouts, and consistency this year, not to mention wins.  He is 5-0 to date and the Twins are 9-1 in his last ten starts.  The Guardians' Quantrill (4.73 ERA) has also had some fine starts mixed in, but he has been unable to string two together.  The Twins haven't been hitting for average lately but they have at least been better than Cleveland. With the Guardians sporting the lowest OPS in the league and averaging just under three runs a game L6, a second Guardians win in a row doesn't seem likely. Cleveland has been especially poor at home to date.  I am all over the Twins in Sunday's showdown! Take Minnesota to bounce back on the road.

Golden State tied this series up with a convincing 127-100 victory in Game 2, shooting 50% overall and from three. But now they’re on the road - where they simply have not been the same team in 2022-23. 

The Warriors are 13-32 straight up and 14-30-1 ATS on the road this season. However, they have won their last two road games, both at Sacramento. 

My big concern with the Lakers is that they simply do not shoot the three well enough to stay with Golden State.  In six of their eight playoff games thus far, LA has shot worse than 30 percent from behind the arc. 

Also, as I’m sure you’ve heard, the Warriors have won at least one road game in every playoff series under Steve Kerr. 

The Dubs flat out looked like the better team in Game 2 and I see no reason why we shouldn't take them as underdogs here in Game 3. 10*

The Red Sox' bats cooled slightly on Friday, but man, are they hitting well lately. Now 7-0, they crushed the Jays' pitching in their series sweep. Boston has a collective batting average of .320 over the last 10 games while getting at least average pitching.  Kluber has had his struggles this year but his last two starts have shown improvement, allowing a respectable 4 runs over 11+ innings.  His mound opponent Bailey Falter (5.01 ERA) has done just that, faltered this season.  He has an opposing Batters' BA of .281 and has given up too many home runs.  The Phillies were punished for poor pitching in their last series, giving up  a massive 36 runs in 3 games.  The bullpen has struggled to the tune of 5.77 ERA L10.

The Sox are an underdog for no reason that I can see.  Jump on Boston to win.

The Red Sox' bats are redhot and I am not convinced that Falter (5.01 ERA) or the the Phillies Bullpen (5.77 ERA L10) will be able to cool them off.  Boston is hitting a scorching .320 collective BA. and roughed up some very good Jays starters in their last series sweep.  While Kluber has looked better in his last two starts, his overall numbers are not strong. The Phillies gave up 36 runs in their series against the Dodgers.  Although the number is high, here is a great opportunity for a "total" victory today.  Take the Sox and Phillies to go over the total today.

The Oilers will score their share of goals, and they still could win this series. It won’t be easy without an elite goalie considering how some of the defense plays, and while Skinner hasn't played badly, he is no game-changer.  Like all the successful teams this year ,Vegas was tenacious on the forecheck in Game One.  Broissoit has played better than expected but the Knights face an elite offense at 5 on 5, and one of the very best power plays ever. Add Draisatl, who is lights out in the playoffs, and the potential more than in any other series is for a bunch of goals from both sides . Take the over again in game two.

I just can’t trust the Heat as favorites, especially with all the injuries. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are of course out for the season while, more importantly, Jimmy Butler remains questionable due to an ankle.

Even at full strength, Miami is terrible as a home favorite. They are 13-23-2 ATS this season as chalk in South Beach, not to mention 20-37-2 ATS as favorites of any kind. 

If Butler can’t go, that’s two of the Heat’s three 20+ point scorers out of the lineup. I just don’t know where else the production would come from. They only scored 105 without Butler in Game 2. 

The Knicks lost Game 1, but they didn’t have Julius Randle, their top scorer. He, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett combine to average 68.7 points per game and they are all now healthy.

Big edge in rebounding for the Knicks as well in the first two games (+25). This team is 26-18 SU/28-15-1 ATS on the road. 10* 

It is a battle of the also-rans as the A's meet the Royals at home.  The Royals have stepped it up in the bats department, hitting lefties especially well  (.294 BA L10).   A's bats are not thriving, nor is the bullpen. Friday's starters have both had some success but both are wild!  Keller in spite of equal parts K's and walks, still has an ERA of 3.56, and is off a fine start.   A's lefty Muller (6.28 ERA)  does have a couple of solid starts, including his last one, mixed in with some very poor ones.  The Royals bullpen has been at least  fair lately. Not so the A's. The A's are just 2-8, and have been struggling vs right handers (.190 BA L10).

Look for KC to flaunt their recently found offense again, and win Friday's game at home.

The Devils were embarrassed by the more experienced Hurricanes.  Let's hope that this will kick-start them for Game two.  Schmid was pulled in Game one after three quick goals, leaving Game two's starter a question mark.  The Devils had an even worse result in the first game of the Rangers series and did bounce back.  While Carolina is an elite defensive team, Andersen faced just eighteen shots.  I don;t believe that the high flyers we saw in the latter part of the Rangers series will be held to just a single goal and under twenty shots twice in a row.  New Jersey has rebounded well after previous losses all season long and are 13-6 after a loss of two goals or more.  Schmid has now had two poor outings.  Is it possible that his cinderella run has ended?  There are enough questions around the Devils goal tending to make the total, a low 5.5, very tempting.  Go with the over today.

Reds starter Hunter Greene has three straight quality starts under his belt, allowing just one run in fourteen innings.  He is learning to pitch this year and fulfilling his enormous potential.  White Sox starter Lance Lynn was better in his last start, but the season has been a real struggle for the most part.  He is getting K's but has been a victim of the long ball.

The White Sox have been especially poor on the road at 4-12, struggling on offense, and barely ahead of the last place A's in bullpen ERA (7.00 ERA L10). The Reds have shown improvement lately, winning six of their last ten games.  They are three games above .500 at home and are getting solid relief pitching.

I'm wagering on Greene and the Reds today, winning at home.

Game one of the series featured more goals than expected.   Five goals against the Stars and Oettinger is a rare occurrence, but the Kraken accomplished it with tenacious forechecking and their usual balanced fifth-ranked attack. The Kraken's ability to play tough without taking penalties eliminated the Stars' very potent power play in game one.  Neither goal-tender looked sharp, but the less than stellar play by Grubauer is more concerning.  Oettinger is far more likely to bounce back.
The Stars bounced back after an opening loss in the first series.  It is unlikely that they will be able to completely shut down the Kraken, but they should get plenty of opportunity against Grubauer. Look for other forwards to chime in today, although Pavelski's return is significant.  Dallas is a very large, possibly exaggerated, favorite today.  I think the total is Thursday's best opportunity.  Take Dallas and Seattle to go over.

While Game 1 was on an Over trajectory most of the way, it wasn’t until Dennis Schroeder hit a couple of free throws in the closing seconds that the bet officially cashed. 

Golden State is typically a lot better defensively at home than they are on the road. In fact, the difference in the number of points per game allowed is basically 10 (9.8). The Lakers, even shooting 55% on 2PA, scored 117 in Game 1. I don’t see them scoring as many tonight.

The Under is 10-5-1 in the Warriors’ previous 16 home games. 

Only one Lakers’ game this entire postseason has seen more than 229 total points scored. That was Game 1 of the Memphis series. Consider that two other games went to overtime and there were still only 228 and 210 total points scored. Two of the three first round games in Memphis saw LA fail to score 100 points.

Defensively, the Lakers were one of the league’s more efficient teams after the trade deadline. Their size is a problem for the Warriors, who shot 53 threes in Game 1 and still scored only 112 points. 10* 

The Brewers have lost two straight to the Rockies and have scored just 3 runs in 3 games.  Let's hope that the perpetually under-powered Brew Crew can respond in the rarefied air of Colorado today and get back on track.   They'll start veteran lefty Wade Miley today, who has pitched for length and consistency, with five straight quality starts and an ERA of 1.87.  He has limited the long ball, a definite advantage in Denver.
The Rockies are just 23rd ranked in offense and are having pitching issues this season.  Seabold (5.27 ERA), usually a reliever, will start, so it could be a bullpen day for the Rockies. The Rockies have won 3 straight games at home, but that has not been the norm.  The Brewers have much the superior starter and pen today.  Look for their offense to step up as they win on the road today.

Off a loss on Wednesday, the Orioles need a win to keep their series winning streak alive.  The Royals can celebrate a rare home victory.  They have been worse than terrible in home games this year. The Orioles will send out young left-hander Grayson Rodriguez.  After a pair of poor outings, Rodriguez has now thrown the opposite; a pair of five inning shutouts. He had 9 K's last time out, most of them on a devastating change up.  The Royals starter Lyles has not lived up to expectations so far, struggling in a number of his starts.  His last was his worst, giving up 7 runs over 4 innings.  The long ball has been an issue; 7 of them in his last three starts.
The Orioles are 11-5 on the road this year, and have a significant edge on the Royals on offense and in relief pitching.  These two starters appear to be going in opposite directions.  Rodriguez, if he is on, has dominant stuff.  Look for the O's to rebound and seal another series with a win.

The Oilers' top rated offense and power play were a little much for the Golden Knights in the regular season.  Edmonton was 4-0 in Vegas and the over was 3-0-1.  They are a very good road team this year.  They do have their weak points, in goal tending and defense.  Skinner was the worst net-minder in the first round, and a healthy Vegas side will have their chances on goal.  Vegas got solid work from Broissoit in the Jets series, but the Oilers are a huge step up in speed and skill, and Broissoit has never been regarded as an elite talent.  It took Edmonton a series last year to really get flying.  We could see a very wide open style with the resulting high totals, starting in Game 1.  Take the Oilers and Knights to go over.    

The Devils looked shaky in their first two playoff games, but once Schmid started in net, they roared back, winning 4 o f 5 games.  NJ held the star-studded Rangers offense to just two goals in those four wins. The young net-minder bounced back after a poor outing in Game six, earning his second shutout of the series.  The Devils' top 10 defense should be able to hang in there against a very fine Hurricanes D.  Carolina does not have a a net-minder to match Shesterkin, the Devils' last opponent.  
New Jersey was at their best on the road this season, but Carolina was a very fine home team, so no obvious advantage there.  The real difference today is on offense.  NJ is both healthier and more potent.  They are blindingly fast and gave the Rangers' defense fits once they got over their early jitters.  After a slower start, I expect Hughes to step up, but he will have plenty of help.  While the Canes are a slight favorite, I am  going with the Devils today.  Take New Jersey to win on the road in Game one. 10*!

While Bieber hasn't been lights out as expected this season, he has been very steady.  He limited the Yankees to just 2 runs in 7 innings earlier in April.  Yankees' starter Schmidt has yet to deliver consistently, allowing 5 runs on 10 hits in his last appearance.  The Yankees beat the Guardians on Tuesday but are a miserable 3-7, and barely over .500 at home.  Injuries are  killing them, including Judge, Stanton and 8, count'em, pitchers.  It is very surprising to see two supposed contenders in the lower third of the league in Runs/9.  The Yankees are batting just .216 vs righties and face a very good one in Bieber.  Take Cleveland, with better pitching on Wednesday, to battle back and win on the road. 10*

Golden State is only 48 hours removed from winning a Game 7 on the road while the Lakers have had two more days rest after finishing off Memphis with an emphatic 40-point win. 

But the Warriors are 21-4 straight up in Game 1’s under Steve Kerr including 19-2 at home (did lose Gm 1 at Sacramento in Rd 1) while LeBron James is just 4-14 SU in his career in road Game 1’s.

So I’m going to go ahead and lay the points in this one. Golden State is simply a different team at home - where they are 35-9 SU and 29-15 ATS this year. Defensively is where we see the most improvement home vs. road with the Warriors. They allow just 111.8 points per game at home compared to 121.8 pn the road.

In two of the three games at Memphis in the first round, the Lakers failed to score 100 points. This is a problem facing a Warriors team that scores an average of 119.2 points at home. 

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors are 66-37 ATS at home when the total is 220 or higher. 8*

I don’t see any reason why the Orioles don’t roll in tonight’s series opener against the Royals. They are simply the better team and have the edge on the mound - both in terms of the starting pitching matchup and the bullpen. 

Baltimore comes into Tuesday with a 19-9 overall record. Across baseball, only Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh have a better win percentage. Going back to 2021, the O’s are 8-0 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Five of those wins have come this season.

Since the start of last season, the Orioles have been the most profitable team to bet on.

On the flip side, you’ve got Kansas City, a team that is just 1-12 at home this year including 0-7 as a dog of +125 to +175.

Wells is going for Baltimore. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP and the team is 3-0. Yarbrough had a decent first start for KC, but this team’s bullpen is horrendous (5.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP). The Orioles are top five in bullpen ERA and WHIP. 10* 

The Knicks really “gave” Game 1 away in my view. They were leading by double digits after the first quarter and then up 55-50 going into halftime. But ice cold shooting from three-point land doomed them. They finished the game a woeful 7 of 34 (20.6%) from long range. Let’s also not forget they missed 8 of 20 free throw attempts.

So I’ll lay the points again in Game 2 … Miami was already without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Now Jimmy Butler is dealing with an ankle injury and that is obviously a major problem. Butler is clearly the Heat’s best player and carried them again with 25 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1. 

If Butler were to miss this game, I’d say the Heat have zero chance of winning.

Plus, NY could get Julius Randle back. Even if Randle doesn’t return, I expect Jalen Brunson to have a bounce back effort after he went 0 for 7 from three in Game 1. 

Miami is the ONLY playoff team that ended the regular season with a negative net efficiency rating. They also have a losing road record. After overperforming tremendously in the first round, at least at the offensive end, this is a team due for some serious regression - whether Butler can go or not. (Reports are that Butler’s ankle has swollen to the size of a baseball). 10*

Phoenix fell victim to some hot shooting from Denver, specifically from Jamal Murray, in Game 1 and that is why they came up short, 125-107. 

The good news for the Suns is that their two superstars - Kevin Durant and Devin Booker - both played well in Game 1. That duo combined for 56 points. Now they just need their teammates to “step it up.” 

The Nuggets were 16 of 37 from three and had 17 more FG attempts than the Suns in Game 1. Murray was 6 of 10 himself from three on his way to 34 points. I don’t see him matching that production in Game 2. 

Despite being the 4-seed, Phoenix is the betting favorite in this series and to win the Western Conference. I think they’re a great value as an underdog tonight.

The Suns only attempted five threes in the 1H Saturday night, but then started launching in the 2H. They only made seven threes for the game, a number they should easily exceed tonight and thus I like them to cover the spread. 10* 

Devils goal-tending issues returned as the Rangers finally broke through against Schmid in Game six. Who the Devils start in net today is the big question.  At the other end, Shesterkin has been consistently good for the Rangers with a fine .939 save % in this series.  While it didn't hold in  this series, NJ has bee a force at home this season.  The speed of the Devils has given the Rangers fits and we have yet to see a goal from Hughes.  The Devils have been tough to beat at home this season and have also a very fine record in bouncing back from a loss. Having solved both Schmid and Vanacek, the Rangers will be ready for whoever is in net.  In spite of these two teams' reputation for defense, I expect offense to be the color of the day.  Wager on the Devils and Rangers to go over.

It is Strider vs Reyes in Game one of the Braves/Mets double header today.  Strider has been arguably the best pitcher at this point in the season.  Reyes, just back from Triple A, has been sharp in relief but isn't stretched out as a starter.  Game one could be something of a bullpen day, which is problematic given the Mets' injury-riddled pitching staff.
I like Strider's chances against anyone, and he has certainly been getting run support, 18 in his last two appearances.  The Braves have a very dynamic offense.  The Mets' bats have been sulking of late.  I expect another huge game from Strider.  Take the Braves on the run line at -1 1/2.

There are some compelling reasons to consider a Kraken win tonight.  Seattle is a very good road team and are 4-1 vs the Avs in Colorado.  There are even more reasons to look at the total.  The under has figured in five of six games in this series and in all of the Av's home games.  Nine of ten recent meetings have all gone under.  Seattle and Grubauer have defended  better than anyone might have expected.  The Av's have just a single player in the top twenty playoff scoring leaders and the Kraken have none.  Seattle could still be missing McCann today, a big part of their scoring.  I am not confident on picking a winner in game seven, but I do like the total very much.  Jump on the under, especially if under six is available.

I like the Knicks here in Game 1 of their second round series against the Heat.

Miami clearly overachieved in Round 1 vs. Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a couple games vs. the Bucks, but more notably the Heat averaged 124 points/game in the series, a double digit increase over what they averaged in the regular season. I expect some offensive regression from the visitors on Sunday.

New York just held Cleveland to an average of 94.2 points/game in the first round series. That’s a tremendous defensive effort. 

The Knicks have covered 24 of their last 35 games overall. The Heat are still only 19-25 SU and 18-26 ATS on the road this season.

Just don’t think this spread is large enough. Miami comes in short-handed as both Herro and Oladipo have been lost for the season. The Knicks are at full strength. 10* 

This is a favorable line for a Cubs/Marlins match-up.  To begin with, Lefty Justin Steele has pitched as well as anyone in the league to date.  4 wins, a WHIP of 0.89, 25 innings pitched and just 4 runs given up.  He'll face Hoeing, fresh off a short poor first of the season appearance for a Marlins team starving for starters.  The Cubs have lost 2 straight against the Marlins and will be out to break up a sweep.  They have much the better offense to date, ranking in the top ten compared to the Marlins' bottom three in runs scored.  The Marlins have had recent success vs left-handers, but the Cubs are tough on right handed pitching and could feast on Hoeing. Call it a draw between the pens, but Steele will likely need much less relief support.  The Cubs have been a solid road team to date.  It will be bounce back day in Miami, with Chicago winning on the road.

Skinner has a save % of .884 in the series and Korpisalo has given up 9 goals in 2 games.  We have now seen the total go over in the last two games.  Neither of these two teams were better than average statistically this season and goal-tending had much to do with that.  With the Oilers the top offense and with a devastating PP, high totals seemed inevitable. For me, Korpisalo overachieved in the early series.  I am betting that the Oilers get to him or Copley again today.  I also can't believe that the Kings can subdue McDavid much longer.  I am not counting the Kings out yet, but I am big on a total prediction today.  Take this game to go over the total

The first thing you need to do when handicapping this series is throw out the four regular season meetings. Denver won the first two, but that was before Kevin Durant arrived in Phoenix. Then the Suns won twice late in the season, but that was with the Nuggets sitting key players both times, including Nikola Jokic. 

We know both teams have a ton of offensive firepower among their ranks, but they’ll each be coming off a three days' break in between series. That leads me to believe we could see a little rust here, at least early on. 

No one is going to confuse Minnesota with Phoenix, but the Nuggets did just hold the T’wolves to an average of 105.4 points per game in the first round. For the season, Denver is #3 in the league in points allowed per game at home (109.8). The Under is 6-2 in the last eight games here at the Ball Arena. 

Where Denver struggles at the defensive end is defending the rim. But Phoenix takes the fewest number of shots at the rim of any playoff team. 

Both teams also rank bottom 10 in pace, so - with this being the first game of the series - I expect a “feeling out process” and fewer possessions than normal. 10* 

I am sure many people are asking "who the bleep is Akira Schmid?" The young net-minder has sparked an equally young Devils' side to a three game win streak, outscoring the Rangers 9-2.  The Devils were a solid defensive force this season missing one thing; dynamic goal-tending.  It is not even as if Schmid had to work that hard in Game Five.  He faced just 23 shots vs 43 for Shesterkin.  Four extra Rangers' penalties in the third period is not a good look.  2-1 in OT, 3-1, and now 4-0; there is a definite progression here.  The Devils have a high speed effective offense, and it appears the goal-scorers are also starting to find their form and confidence. The Rangers are in big trouble.  Take the underdog Devils to win.  10*

After a slump in offense, the Twins have put 6 or more runs on the board in their last 4 straight games.  Today's starter, Ober, obviously didn't appreciate being sent down after a fine spring, returning to the bigs with a very fine first start, allowing just 1 run in 5+ innings.  Royals' righty Keller's last two starts have been short and not so sweet, giving up 7 runs in 8 innings. The Royals don't hit well and the pen is struggling.  Not to mention, the Twins are the best offense in the league lately and are feasting on right-handers at the moment.  Take the Twins on the Run line at -1.5.  10*!

The Stars got points form their big guns and a shutout from goalie Oettinger in Game five.  That is two straight premium efforts for him after a pair of sub-par performances.  Ti is the Wild's net-minder Gustavsson who has underachieved in Games four and five, allowing six goals on fifty shots.  Could we see Fleurie back in net? The Wild are a very good home team, but Dallas was exceptional on the road this year, and are driven to get a round one series victory off their back.   They've got Hintz as the (not so surprising) play-off points leader, and they have stymied an average Wild offense in two straight games. The Wild are still likely missing their top center Ek. These are two very defensively solid teams, but the Stars' superior offense will rule in Game Six. Take the Stars to win. 10*

After dropping the first two games (in Sacramento) of this best of seven series, the Warriors have stormed back with three straight wins and can now, back home, eliminate the Kings in Game 6. 

Wednesday’s win made it 28 consecutive playoff series where Golden State won at least one road game, a NBA record. We all know they are a much better team at home - where they are 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS this season.

A big key for the Warriors’ home success is that they allow just 111.7 points/game at home. Compare that to the 122.3 points/game that they allow on the road. That’s a big difference. Sacramento also allows fewer points on the road (116.2) than they do at home (119.1) though the difference is not as significant as Golden State.

In three of the last four games, the Kings have shot 29% or worse from three. De’Aaron Fox having a fractured finger doesn’t help matters. He was 9 of 25 from the floor in Game 5 including 3 of 10 from three. The team went 2 for 22 from three after the first quarter. 

The Under is 24-11 this season in Warriors’ home games when the number is 230 or higher. In the NBA Playoffs, Unders have cashed at better than 58% in Game 6/7 since 2004-05. 10* 

The Panthers, much to my surprise, beat the Bruins on the road in overtime, earning a chance to tie the series at home.  I cannot believe that the Bruins will allow this series to go to a game seven.  The Bruins out-shot Florida 47-25, with Bobrovsky saving the Panthers' bacon with a huuge performance.  Ullmark had a rare off game, but I expect he will be back in the net in Game Six.  While it shouldn't matter in the playoffs, the Panthers have been a .500 home team this year.  After the Bruins' loss in game one, they stormed back in the second game, winning relatively easily.   I expect a similar reaction from Boston in Friday's match-up.  Pasternak is certainly due for some offense. Take Boston to win the game and the series on the road. 10*

The Mets are just 1-5, losing their last series vs the Nats.  The visiting Braves just swept the Marlins and are 5-0 on the road.  The Mets have an shocking number of pitchers, starting and relieving, on the injured list.  Peterson is healthy if ineffective, with 3 of his last 4 starts outright poor (7.31 ERA).  He'll face another lefty, Atlanta ace Max Fried.  His last two appearances have both been shutouts. He has a miniscule ERA of 0.60, allowing zero home runs.
The hard-hitting Braves are roughing up left-handers (.303 last 5 games), while the Mets are just .184 in recent appearances vs southpaws.  I really like the Braves' chances on Friday and the line is reasonable considering the match-up.  Take Atlanta to win on the road again.

Jays' starter Manoah finally got on track in his last game and Castillo, the Mariners' ace, has been exceptional all season, with an ERA of 1.90 over 23 innings.  He has not been getting great run support from the Seattle offense.  In fact both of these teams have been underachieving with the bats.  The Jays have been hitting well in recent games, but  haven't faced a good pitcher since Cole (3-2 result).  Seattle is hitting below .200 as a team over the last ten games.  With a healthy total available today, I am wagering on the Under.

This is a tough call. Not that I think the Golden Knights won't win. I just don't think the odds are great that they will win by more than a goal.  The Jets are now down three centers, a scoring winger, and their best defenseman. That is just plain too beaten up to win against a Vegas side up 3-1 at home.  The Jets have had very little success against the Knights anywhere, however there is always the Hellebuyck factor.  He could come up bit and limit Vegas scoring, although the Knights have managed four or more goals a game in Games 2 through 4.  High odds, but taking the Golden Knights to win is the best option. 10*

Atlanta shocked us all by winning Game 5 in Boston, 119-117 as 13-point underdogs. Over the final nine minutes, the Hawks outscored the Celtics 30-15 with Trae Young putting the exclamation point on things with a three-point bomb to win it with just two seconds remaining.

Atlanta made 19 threes in the game, none bigger than Young’s obviously, and making the result all the more shocking is that the Hawks were without Dejounte Murray (suspended).

Murray returns tonight as the series returns to Atlanta. But it’s difficult to ignore the fact the Celtics dominated Game 5 for three quarters, outscoring the Hawks 60-38 in the paint and 24-8 in transition.

I see Boston ending the series tonight and will lay the points. The Celtics are clearly the better team and have been ahead most of the series.

The Hawks are awful defensively (119.3 points/game allowed in this series) and won’t shoot 46% again from three. 10* 

Both these teams have a penchant for winning on the road and the series has followed that pattern.  I think the Devils success in games three and four has more to do with A. a young team finding their playoff footing, and  B. putting Schmid in net.  The youngster has allowed just two goals in forty-nine shots..  It isn't as if the Devils are ripping up Shesterkin and the Rangers, having scored just just seven goals in four games.  These were, after all, two tough top ten defenses in the regular season, and if Jersey gets solid goal-tending again, we could see another low total.  I'm wagering on the under again today. 10*

The Tigers' lefty Wentz is not off to a fine start with just one of his four appearances in the "better than acceptable " category.  The Orioles got to him for five runs in four innings less than a week ago.  As far as the Orioles' starter goes, you never really know how Gibson is going to pitch.  Anywhere from outstanding to outstandingly poor is possible.  He is however 4-0 to date, and he struck out eleven Tigers in a six inning, one run appearance just a few games ago.

The O's are 8-2, sweeping the Tigers in their home series.  The Tigers are 2-5, awful on offense and just poor in runs-against.  Baltimore is hitting well, fourth in the league at the moment and very good vs lefties lately.  The Tigers are hitting just .161 of late vs right handers.  While Detroit has been getting excellent relief pitching, one of the few teams with a better pen is the Orioles (0.86 ERA L/5).  Take the Orioles to win outright.

The Miami Heat have drastically overperformed in this first round playoff series, especially at the offensive end of the floor. They’ve averaged 123 points through the first four games and you can’t necessarily blame that all on Milwaukee being without Giannis Antetokounmpo as he returned for Game 4 and the Heat scored 119, led by a sensational performance from Jimmy Butler, who had 56 points by himself. 

This is only the fourth time since 1984 that an 8-seed holds a 3-1 series lead over a 1-seed. 

Something else to keep in mind - the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the NBA during the regular season at 109.5 points/game. 

Furthermore, the Heat were also #2 in points allowed (109.8 per game). What has happened in this series is truly head-scratching to say the least.

So I will try the Under yet again. On the road, it’s more likely that Miami’s shooting will regress (than at home). Remember that both Herro and Oladipo are out. 10* 

The Padres may have the lineup, but it is the Cubs making all the noise so far.  Decent pitching, solid offense, and while the pen has been a bit shaky lately, it has been better than the Padres' (7.79 ERA).  Lefty Smyly has been lights-out in his last three starts, including a 7+ 1 hit shutout in his last start.  On the other hand , Padres' starter Wacha's last two starts have been anything but quality, allowing 21 hits and 12 runs in just 8+ innings.  The Padres are 0-4 vs left-handers and they'll face a tough one today.  It is hard to wager against the Padres' potential, but it is the right move for Wednesday's game.  Take the Cubs to win.

The Bruins got to Bobrovsky for five goals and ran Lyons out in the previous game.  I'm not sure it will make any difference who is in net; Florida just doesn't have the defense to keep the Bruins in check.  Boston is an unstoppable force at this point and will have Bergeron back for game five, making them even tougher to play against.  I would be very surprised if the Panthers won another road game.  Ullmark looked terrific, stopping 41 of 43 shots, and trying to take on Tkachuk as well.  I think the Panthers have taken their best shot and have come up short.  Take the Bruins on the puck line at -1 1/2. 10*!

The White Sox, now 0-5, have managed just six runs in their last four games.  They are hitting just .119 vs left handers in their last five innings.  They'll face a lefty who has appeared to re-find his form after a poor season last year.  Three of four of Kikuchi's starts have been of the quality variety so far, allowing just three runs in fourteen innings, with a very good strikeout to walk ratio.  He will face Kopech, who has struggled in three of four starts.  Eight home runs and fourteen walks in twenty innings won't cut it.  The Jays got plenty of production from the tail end of the order on Tuesday so it is time for the big bats to step out in this game. Perhaps Kikuchi's poor play is holding back this line.  Take the Jays to win. 10*

Korpisalo !has faced roughly forty shots a game from the #1 offense in the league.  He has been a lot better than most people expected so one off game is not surprising. 3 of 4 games in this series have gone to overtime so the Oilers as such a favorite in Game Five is a bit surprising.  The Oilers goal-tending situation is hardly clear.  They will have to decide between Skinner, who was pulled in the first period of Game Four, or Campbell who has barely played this month.  This has been an evenly matched series with the Kings largely keeping the Oilers offense in check.  There is every likelihood that LA can keep Game Five close again. A Kings win is not out of the question.  Take the Kings on the puck line at +1 1/2.  10*

This series heads back to Boston with the Celtics up 3-1 and looking to close things out. Both games in Atlanta went Over, but the two here in Beantown stayed Under with the big difference being that the Hawks just couldn’t score nearly as much on the road.

Dejounte Murray is suspended for Game 5 due to making contact with an official. The Hawks will miss him as he’s averaging over 25 points/game in this series. Games 1 and 2 saw the Hawks score just 99 and 106 points respectively and Trae Young wasn’t much help, going 3 of 13 from three. 

Credit the Hawks for shooting a lot better the last two games. But before that, they’d shot 33.3% or worse from three in seven straight games against the Celtics.

The Under has hit four of the last five times Atlanta has visited Boston. Also, the Under has been a very profitable wager in Hawks’ playoffs games through the years, especially in the first round. They are 41-18-1 to the Under in first round playoff games. 

Boston is an elite defensive team. They posted the second best defensive rating in the league during the regular season. 10*

Baltimore was the most profitable team to bet on last season (+27.9 units) and they continue to produce for their backers (3rd most profitable in 2023). The Orioles have now won seven in a row following last night’s 5-4 triumph over the division rival Red Sox. On the season, the O’s are 15-7 overall. 

So why not ride the hot hand Tuesday? The Orioles will start Kyle Bradish, who has not allowed a run in two starts (though that’s a bit misleading as the one lasted just 1 ⅔ innings). Still though, his last start was quite encouraging as Bradish went six innings and gave up just five hits. (Granted, against Washington). 

But having won seven straight and 11 of 13 overall, Baltimore is too good to ignore right now. They rallied from a 4-0 deficit last night. Can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again tonight.

The Orioles’ hitters showed tremendous patience and discipline last night as they didn’t strike out a single time. I like their chances here against Corey Kluber, whose best days are behind him. Kluber has an 8.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP after allowing seven runs in his last start.

Kluber has allowed at least one HR in each of his four starts and he gave up two when he faced Baltimore on Opening Day. That resulted in a 10-9 loss for the Red Sox as Kluber allowed five runs in 3 ⅓ innings. The Red Sox are 0-4 with Kluber on the mound this season. 10* 

The Colorado big guns solved Grubauer, leaving him with five goals against and an .845 save % in Game Three.   Not that Georgiev was that much better, but we knew the Kraken would press on offense.  The Av's are a a great road team and the Kraken struggle to defend, especially at home.  Goat-tending was always going to be the issue for Seattle, but Grubauer surprised with two very strong appearances.  It may be status quo now.  I don't think that the Kraken, regardless of who is in net, can stand up to an Av's team firing on all cylinders.  Look for Colorado to win on the road again.

The Avalanche got to Grubauer in a big way, which is not really a surprise.  Goal tending was always a question mark for the Kraken.  Seattle responded with four goals in game 3, again not really surprising, as they possess one of the better offenses in the league.  The Av's last 6  away games have all gone over, and Colorado is a tough opponent on the road.  Seattle has not been at their best at home this year.  We've reached situation critical in the series.   Seattle will be all in, and that means offense.  Colorado is tough to beat when MacKinnon et al get rolling. Look for another high total, and jump on the over today

After a high-scoring Game 1 (128-112 Lakers’ win), the last two games of this series have both gone Under the total. Memphis won Game 2 at home without Ja Morant, 103-93. But then, despite Morant returning, the Lakers exploded out of the gate (led 35-9 after 1Q) and won 111-101 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.

Morant got things going late in Game 3, scoring 24 points in the 4Q to finish with 45 for the game. But his teammates gave him next to nothing, combining to score just 56 points on 32.8% collective shooting. Dillon Brooks was ejected for a low-blow on LeBron James. 

Memphis will definitely shoot better tonight in Game 4. Meanwhile, the Lakers are probably due to shoot better themselves, at least from three-point range (where they’ve gone 14 of 54 the last two games). 

Keep in mind that Game 3 only stayed Under by nine points despite the Grizzlies scoring only 9 in the first quarter.

The Over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Grizzlies have been off an ATS loss. The Over is 7-1 in the Lakers’ last eight games after a SU win. 8*

The Jets just lost their top defenseman, Morrissey, a huge hit at this point in the series.  Vegas is probably as healthy as they have been all year.  Eichel appears to enjoy his first taste of play off hockey.  He and the Knights have solved the Hellebuyck problem.  Just keep firing shots at him.  This should have been an easier win for the Knights.  The Jets had just 11 shots in the first two period.  Credit to the Jets to find a way back from down three. It must have been demoralizing to finally lose in multiple overtimes.  I don't think Vegas will make that same mistake again.The Golden Knights are the better team and very tough to beat on the road. I believe they will steal another road game on Monday.  Knights to win outright.

Based on closing lines, every game in this series has gone Over the total. That’s primarily thanks to Miami being much better than expected offensively. The Heat have not only scored more than 120 points in all three games, but they are shooting 55% overall for the series and 50% from three.

Something to keep in mind is that the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging just 109.5 points/game on 46.2% overall shooting and 34.8% from three. They were also 29th in adjusted pace, meaning they played very slow. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo being out for the Bucks has dominated the headlines for this series, but the injury bug now seems to have bit Miami. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have suffered season-ending injuries while Jimmy Butler (averaging 30 points/game in this series) is questionable and Bam Adebayo is not at 100 percent. So the ridiculous shooting we’ve seen so far from Miami in this series should definitely tail off. 

But the Heat were also one of the top defensive teams this year, allowing the second fewest points/game in the league (109.8). 

I’m on the Under, no matter if Giannis and/or Butler plays or not. We’re simply due for a lower-scoring game. There were only 101 total points scored in the second half Saturday. 10* 

The Jays bats have yet to come alive, but they've faced the Rays, Astros and Yankees in succession, winning two of the three series.  The White Sox have some of the worst pitching in the league at the moment.  Even Lance Lynn is struggling.  He gets plenty of strikeouts, but a ton of HR and walks as well.  The Jays' starter Bassitt is still trying to work down his ERA after a disastrous first start.  His last three starts have all been good; the very last was a six inning shut out.  The Jays' bullpen ERA looks alarming, but a few very poor innings has skewed that number.  The Sox' relievers really are poor.  It doesn't help that they have 4 RPs on the injury list. Add to the pitching woes, The Sox have also been hitting very poorly of late.  The Jays have fared well agaisnt three top sides.  I expect some of those big bags to start to make a statement.  Ill take the Jays to win on Monday.

It’s do or die in Game 4 for the Timberwolves, who are facing elimination at home. Denver has taken the first three games of this best of seven series, 109-80, 122-113 and 120-111. The Nuggets are shooting 52.1% for the series after going 57.1% in Game 3, which included 13 of 32 from three.

Minnesota has outscored Denver in just one of the 12 quarters in this series. 

But I expect a fired up effort by the home team in Game 4 with the season on the line. Denver isn’t likely to shoot as well as it did in the last game. It’s absolutely worth noting that the Nuggets have only prevailed by single digits each of the last two games despite shooting over 55% from the field.

Denver isn’t a great road team either. For the season, they have a losing record away from home, getting outscored by almost three points per game.

Minnesota is 9-2 ATS this season following three straight losses. They are 8-3 straight up in those games as well. 10*

The  8-2 Mets, off a rare loss will start Megill against the Giants today.  Megill has been solid against tough competition, now 3-1 with an ERA of 3.00.  He will get good support from the NY bullpen, performing well in spite of missing Diaz.  The Mets are 10-6 on the road and scorching right-handers to the tune of .315 in recent games.  They will face another righty in Ross Stripling, who has not been the pitcher he was last year (7.30 ERA).  He has been used mainly in relief to date so don’t look for a long outing from him today.  The Giants’ relievers have been unable to get the job done so far this season.  SF is just 3-6 at home, 4-8 vs right-handers, and unable to string together multiple wins.  Take the Mets to bounce back and win on the road.

You have to believe that Gustavsson will be back in net for the Wild.  He was sharp, but not overworked in Game 3 and sensational in Game !.  The Wild were able to push the Stars around, putting four past Oettinger.  His save % is just .860 in the last two games. Both teams are missing a top offensive player as Ek appeared to re-injury himself.  The Stars haven't had much success when playing in Minnesota, just 2-5 in recent match-ups.  Minnesota is a very good home team, playing a tough brand of play-off hockey at the moment, and if Gustavsson is in net, have topnotch net-minding.  Take the Wild to win at home again.

The Bruins were all business in Game Three, running up a 4-0 lead, and then surviving the Panthers' 19 shot 3rd period.  The Bruins broke through on Alex Lyon, bouncing him for Bobrovsky.  Today's Florida goalie will be a game time decision. Ullmark looked very solid, weathering the third period assault by the Panthers.  The Bruins could be down another center today with Krejci questionable, but Florida could be missing Ekblad on defense, which would be a more significant loss.
I don't think that Boston will take their foot off the gas today and allow the Panthers the opportunity to even up the series.  Even minus Pasternak, the Bruins are just too solidly built.  It is going to take a better defensive team and more potent goal-tending than the Panthers can offer to beat the Bruins consistently.  Take Boston to win.

The Rodriguezs  face off on Sunday.  Eduardo, is the veteran left-hander for the Tigers, off to a fine start.  His last start: 8 innings pitched, 0 runs, 10 strikeouts, 0 walks.  Grayson is the Orioles' promising young right-hander, off to a bit of a rough start.  The Tigers have some upside to date; not much offense, but a solid bullpen at the moment.  They've kept themselves in a lot of ballgames.  The Orioles have won 4 straight in an easy part of their schedule.  They hit well, but are softer against left-handers.  I like the pitching match-up for Detroit on Sunday.  A win wouldn't surprise me, but they should be able to at least keep this one close.  Take the Tigers on the run line at +1 1/2.

Every game in this series has stayed Under the total and as a result of that, the current O/U line for Game 4 is basically 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 1. 

Now, not only has every game stayed Under, but the Cavs and Knicks have yet to even combine for 200 total points! In Game 3, Cleveland scored just 79 points. That was the fewest points scored by any team, in any game this NBA season.

The lack of scoring has created solid value on the Over here, in my opinion. Cleveland won’t shoot 38.7% overall again this afternoon nor will they miss 26 of 33 three-point attempts. 

For the series, the Cavs are averaging just 94.3 points on 43.7% shooting. This is well below their season averages of 111.6 points/game on 48.6% shooting. It’s a similar story with New York, who is averaging 96.7 points on 42% shooting in this series. They average 115.3 points on 46.8% shooting for the season. 

I just can’t see the cold shooting from both teams continuing. Take the Over in Game 4. 10* 

The Avalanche have been a great road team all season, while the Kraken are just a surprising three games over .500 at home.  While all bets should be off in the playoffs, this is a very strong trend.  As good as Grubauer has been lately, that hasn't been the norm this season.  He is also consistently worse on home ice.  Georgiev is steadier, at home or away.  The Av's have the star power, the experience and the ability to break out.  The Kraken are tough offensively but have been only average on defense this year.  I think that the lack of defense and sub-par net-minding will catch up with them tonight.  Take the Av's to quiet the first-time playoff crowd in Seattle and steal this one on the road.

Ja Morant remains questionable for Game 3, but regardless if the Memphis’ star plays or not, I’m rolling with the Lakers.

LA took Game 1 128-112, thanks to four different players scoring 20 or more points. Predictably, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura cooled off in Game 2 and the Grizzlies, at home, were able to win without Ja, 103-93 as slight underdogs. 

But now the Grizz are on the road where they’ve gone just 14-26-2 ATS this season and they may be without their best player yet again.

Outside of LeBron James and Hachimura, the rest of the Lakers shot just 24.2% in Game 2. That number will go up by a lot here in Game 3. 

Memphis is 0-5 ATS the last five games off a SU win and 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games after an ATS win.  10* 

The Devils, a very good away team this season, are looking to bounce back on the road on Saturday, but they have taken a kicking at both ends of the ice in the first two games.  The Rangers' defense is definitely on top of their game, and they are getting timely offense from Kreider, Fox, and now Patrick Kane. Did I mention Tarasenko?  Vanacek struggled in both of the first two games, while Shesterkin has given up just a single goal in each game.  The usually offensively-charged Devils were held to 22 shots in Game Two, with just 7 coming in the third period.
It is hard to imagine the Devils out in four, but the Rangers look very tough to beat.  Take the Rangers to win Game Three at home.