You have to give Princeton credit for getting to the Sweet 16, but I feel that the Tigers have had a bit of a “charmed life” in getting thus far. The Ivy League Tournament, just a four-team affair, was played in their home gym. Then, in their first round NCAA Tournament game, they watched Arizona go stone cold down the stretch. Drawing Missouri in the second round was a favorable matchup for the 15-seed.

Creighton is by far the best defensive team that Princeton has seen in awhile. The Bluejays are Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

And Princeton has some worrisome offensive metrics. They’re currently 201st in 3PT%, 199th in FT% and 258th in offensive block%. 

At the same time, I don’t expect Creighton to shoot the three as well as they did against Baylor. They were 11 of 24 from behind the arc in that game. ShotQuality data indicates the Bluejays should have finished with about 11 fewer points.

Creighton was also 22 of 22 from the FT line in that win over Baylor. Not sure we see that kind of production again either. 10*

Miami is the 5-seed here in the Midwest Region and just beat Indiana 85-69 as a 1.5-point underdog in the second round. But that came on the heels of a close call vs. Drake in the first round where the Hurricanes needed to rally late for a 63-56 win and cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Top seed Houston failed to cover its first round game as the Cougars could only defeat 16-seed Northern Kentucky (a tricky team that plays zone defense) 63-52 as lofty 19-point favorites. But after falling behind early, Kelvin Sampson’s team roared back in the second round, eventually blowing out Auburn 81-64 as 5.5-point chalk.

Looking at this matchup, the one thing that sticks out is Miami ranks just 109th in defensive efficiency. That’s the worst defensive rating among all Sweet 16 teams (even worse than Princeton) and I think they’ll struggle to contain Marcus Sasser (22 points vs. Auburn) and company. Miami is allowing almost 54% of its opponents’ points to be scored inside the three-point line.

Miami supporters will point to the guard play, which was tremendous again vs. Indiana. But this is a far worse matchup for the Hurricanes as Houston allows the lowest midrange shooting percentage in the country and also have the highest block rate in all of College Basketball.

Furthemore, Houston has a big edge in rebounding in this matchup and is well-suited to slowing down Miami, thus limiting the ‘Canes’ transition opportunities. 10* 

The Islanders, winners of three straight, have scored seventeen goals while allowing just six.  Five of six of their games have gone over the total.  They have also won six straight against the Blue Jackets. The Islanders, still in the running for a wild card spot, have been beating up on weaker teams (and the Leafs), scoring in a very prolific un-Islander-like  style.  They face one of the league's worst defenses on Friday.  Columbus are off a 7-6 win, but victories have been few and far between. High totals have not.  The over has figured in eight of their last ten games.  The Jackets have given up a ton of goals, but they have also managed to score an average of four goals a game in their last five games.

The total is lowish, given the Islanders' reputation, but I expect a higher total on Friday night.  Take the game to go over the total.

***NOTE THAT THIS IS A MONEY LINE SELECTION*** - I am playing the Clippers to win straight up, not against the spread! 

I think this is a good time to sell high on the Thunder, who upset the Clippers 101-100 as 6.5-point underdogs the other night. That game stayed well Under the total, which closed at 237.

The Clippers actually jumped out to an early 18-4 lead in that game. But things took a dramatic turn in the fourth quarter when Paul George suffered a serious leg injury that will keep him sidelined for at least 2-3 weeks. 

People want to act like the “sky is falling” in LA right now. While the Clippers have underwhelmed this season, they’ve still got Kawhi Leonard and are a better team than the Thunder, who are still just 14-21 SU on the road this season.

I expect the Clippers to shoot better from three than what they did Tuesday (6 of 31) even without George. Leonard should score at least 30 here as he has done three of the last six games he’s played without George. He’s also gone for 30+ in three of the last five games vs. OKC. 7*

The Canucks are playing a much better brand of hockey under their new coach.  The return of Demko in net has solidified the goalie situation.  They lost against Vegas , and were called out for giveaways, but generally the defense and PK have been very much improved.  They are also 5-1 in recent home games, getting solid offense, and have been deadly in scoring short-handed lately. 

The Sharks are 1-9 and seem destined for dead last this season.  They generally haven't been scoring much, although they managed 4 goals against the Oilers.  Goalie Kahkonen has lost 9 straight games, giving up more than four goals a game.

The Canucks are better than they have been all season, and seem to be enjoying themselves after a very turbulent season.  It won't do much for their draft placing, but they are playing like they have something to prove.  Take Vancouver to win again at home.

I’m expecting this to be a defensive battle in the East Regional between 7-seed Michigan State and 3-seed Kansas State.

The lower seeded team is actually the favorite here, which I’m not sure I agree with. But Under seems like the best course of action here considering Michigan State plays at a very slow pace (303rd in adjusted tempo) and hasn’t been hitting its threes recently (2 of 17 vs. Marquette). 

Kansas State probably can’t count on shooting 67% from two-point range either, which is what they’ve done in their first two tournament games. Against Marquette, Michigan State allowed only nine made field goals from inside the arc! 

Unders have been the way to go so far in the NCAA Tournament. Through the first two rounds (and play-in games), the Under is hitting at a 67% rate (35-17). 

Kansas State has been one of the few exceptions to the Under rule as both of their Tourney games so far have stayed Under. But they shot poorly from three against Kentucky in the second round and my guess is that Tom Izzo is going to come up with a way to slow down Markquis Nowell in this game. 10* 

Both Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant have been ruled out here for Portland, but Utah may be without some key pieces as well with Lori Markkanen having missed the last game and Jordan Clarkson still banged up. So I’m willing to take the Blazers plus the points in what is essentially a must win for them.

Portland comes into tonight trailing Utah by four games in the race for the last play-in spot. The Blazers have lost six in a row, failing to cover the last four, to fall back in the playoff chase. Meanwhile, the Jazz are trending in the other direction with six straight covers and winning four of their last five straight up.

But I still don’t see that much of a difference between these two Northwest Division clubs. Utah has been great as a dog this season, but they are only 12-19 ATS when favored. Having the seventh worst defensive rating in the league is also not ideal when the Jazz are laying points.

The Blazers have won the previous two meetings and have shot 47% or better against the Jazz all three times they’ve faced them in 2022-23. The one loss came by only five points. Damian Lillard scored 60 the last time they played.

With Milwaukee coming to town Friday, Utah may be looking past Portland. I just think the Jazz are due to “lay an egg” this evening. The only two times since the All Star Break where Utah has been asked to lay more than a point both came against San Antonio and they lost one of those games. Take the points. 10* 

The Penguins are struggling, losing four straight and outscored 18-7.  It won't get any easier on Wednesday.  They'll face a Avs team at home and in top form.  Colorado has won six straight, outscoring their opponents 28-12 in that stretch.  Looking at the numbers, the Avs have a sizable edge on defense and the Power Play, and their formidable offense is finally clicking.

Penguins' goalie Jarry has had some very poor outings lately, with just an .849 sv. % in March.  Colorado's likely net minder Georgiev ha s been the opposite, earning a shutout in his last appearance, and sporting a shiny .975 sv. % in his last three games.

The Penguins are just .500 on the road this season and are an "also-ran" in the playoff race at the moment.  The Avs are challenging for first in the West.  Take the Avs, at home, to continue to win.

This is a big game for both teams in what is shaping up to be a very crowded (and tight) Western Conference playoff race. Only four games separate 4th from 12th place in the West. Both the Thunder and Clippers are in that mix.

Oklahoma City has a better point differential than all but the top four teams. So they are to be respected. But I’m not sure I’d want to take the Thunder here against a Clippers team that was the preseason NBA Title favorite and now at full strength.

The Clippers are already 0-2 vs. the Thunder this season, however. 

So instead of the side, let’s look at the total as the Under looks like a smart play here. The Under is 29-10 in the Clippers’ previous 39 home games. Plus 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams here in LA have gone Under. 8*

This is a spot where the Pelicans should absolutely roll. San Antonio is the worst team in the league and winning is not in their best interest at this point. The Spurs did win Sunday, 126-118 at home against Atlanta. However, I thought that was a phony result as they not only erased a 24-point deficit, but also were fortunate to go 14 of 28 from three while the Hawks were just 5 of 22. 

The Spurs main focus at this point should be to lose as many games as possible and thus better their chances in the Draft Lottery. They have the worst point differential in the league and are being outscored by 13 points/game on the road.

New Orleans needs this game after only managing a split with another lowly team, Houston. The Pelicans are currently 12th in the Western Conference, but just one game back of the final play-in spot. Having a positive YTD point differential tells me this team is better than its 34-37 SU record.

The Pelicans have already beaten the Spurs three times this season, putting up 129, 117 and 126 points. They are 22-13 SU at home. 

The Spurs have covered only 5 of 23 road games with a total of 230 or higher. 10*

The Jets are in the midst of blowing a once promising season.  They've lost six of ten, can't win at home with regularity, and can't seem to find the back of the net anywhere. Three of their last four wins have been by a single goal. They've scored just two goals in three games, and were shut out twice. Star net-minder Hellebuyck has not looked his best February through March.
Meanwhile, the lowly Coyotes have won 6 of 7 games, and their last two losses have gone to overtime.  They are better rested than the Jets, and should have Vejmelka back in net on Tuesday.  The Coyotes are very much over-achieving on offense, averaging 4 goals per game over their last 8 starts.  I'll take the Coyotes on the puck line at +1 1/2.

This is a great spot to fire on Southern Utah, in my opinion, as Eastern Kentucky is not only playing its third game in three days but the previous two both went to overtime!

On Sunday, EKU rallied back from a 13-point second half deficit to stun Cleveland State 91-75 as a one-point favorite. That was one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see as the Colonels outscored the Vikings 17-1 in OT. Then yesterday, they were ahead most of the way against Indiana State, only to again go to OT - where they prevailed 89-88 as a seven-point dog. 

Southern Utah had a close call yesterday as well, beating Rice 91-89 but failing to cover the 4.5-point spread. But that too was a misleading result as the Thunderbirds led the entire way and were up by as much as 17. 

This is SUU’s third game in four days, but they had Sunday off and have not logged the extra minutes EKU has. Furthermore, Southern Utah easily won its first CBI game, 72-50 over North Alabama, an ASun rival of EKU. 

Southern Utah (16th in adjusted tempo) plays even faster than Eastern Kentucky (44th). A fast paced game is not ideal for the Colonels right now, given they’ve played 90 minutes of hard fought basketball the last two days. Lay the short number. 10* 

The 7-3 Oilers are still within sight of first place in the West, which makes a win in Monday's game against the Sharks absolutely vital.  Edmonton hasn't played a really poor team in ten games, which makes their record even more impressive.  There are no questions around their offense; they've outscored their opponents 16-8 in their last three games.  Their defense has perked up lately.  They limited the Bruins, Sabres and Dallas to two goals or less in recent games.
The Sharks truly are a poor team at the moment, losing 6 straight games.  With the league's 30th ranked defense, they will be in tough against the Oilers' top of the pops offense and Power Play. Sharks likely goalie Kahkonen's save % over his last 5 games is a very humble .836, including an eight and a six goals-against effort.  The Oilers Skinner has won 7 of 8 games, with just one sub-par start against the Leafs during that time.
I generally shy away from the puck line, but this is one game where I feel comfortable in wagering on it.  Look for the Oilers to light it up on Monday.  Edmonton - 1 1/2!

Utah has now covered five in a row, though they had to come back from down 19 on Saturday to stun Boston 118-117 (as 4.5 point pups) here at home. Nevertheless, oddsmakers continue to not give this Jazz team the respect it deserves considering a phenomenal 26-10 ATS mark as an underdog, which is best in the league. 

Speaking of a team that doesn’t get enough respect, Sacramento is tied for 2nd in the West (with Memphis) at 43-27 SU. The Kings are well-positioned to snap the longest active playoff drought in the four major North American sports. They last made the playoffs in the 2005-2006 season. 

But while the Kings come into Monday on a hot 6-1 SU/ATS run, this is not a great spot for them as it will be their fourth road game in the last six days. They’ve won each of the previous three, but two of those were by five points or less. 

Speaking of close games, these teams have already met twice this year and while the Kings are 2-0 straight up against the Jazz, those two wins were by a total of three points. Both were decided in the closing seconds. 

Sacramento shot almost 56% from the floor against Washington on Saturday, which included 22 of 37 from three. Don’t expect them to repeat those numbers here. This is too many points to lay to a competent team at the end of a road trip. 10*

Milwaukee was a surprise team in the Horizon League this season, finishing second behind Youngstown State. But the Panthers’ run towards the NCAA Tournament ended with a semifinal loss in the conference tournament, 93-80 to Cleveland State. They got the invite to the CBI, however, and made the most of it by defeating Stetson in OT yesterday, 87-83 as a 1.5-point dog.

You may think Charlotte has a bit of an edge because their first round CBI game was on Saturday. The 49ers did defeat Western Carolina 65-56 as six-point favorites. But they had to come back from a 31-20 halftime deficit to do so. WCU shot 3 of 20 from three-point range and was just 3 of 7 from the free throw line.

I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of numbers tonight from Milwaukee, who averages eight made threes per game and shoots nearly 74% from the FT line. 

Important to note that Charlotte came into the CBI on a three-game losing streak. They are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games following an ATS win. 

Even with the rest advantage, I don’t see how the 49ers are this big of a favorite. It will be interesting to see what pace this game is played at because Milwaukee is 12th in the country in adjusted tempo while Charlotts is 362nd (second slowest). The Panthers are 7-2 ATS following a game where they allowed 80 or more points. 10* 

Miami was only a 2.5-point favorite against Drake in the first round. Like all of the other 5-seeds, the Hurricanes were able to avoid the upset, but in their case it was not easy. The ‘Canes trailed Drake by eight points with under five minutes to go, only to close with a 16-1 run. 

It was a real shock that Miami could win a game where it shot 11 of 38 on two-point attempts. I say that because this is a team that typically relies on its offense. The Hurricanes are just 114th in the country in defensive efficiency, the lowest ranking among remaining tourney teams save for Fairleigh Dickinson. 

Indiana will not let “The U” off the hook the same way Drake did. The Hoosiers had far less problems in Round 1 as they beat a very good Kent State team 71-60 as 4.5-point favorites. IU held Kent to just 32% from the field. 

Jackson-Davis should have a big game here for the Hoosiers against a Miami team that I already mentioned is suspect defensively. The ‘Canes don’t really have the size to match up.

IU can also shoot the three. Defensively, they are built to stop Miami’s backcourt. 10* 

Other than a poor effort vs Calgary, Vegas has been overachieving on offense, averaging over 4  goals a game in their last 5.  They'll be all in against Columbus to hold onto their lead in a tight Western Conference.  Both defenses are depleted.  Vegas is missing a remarkable 4 goal-tenders this year.  Columbus is down a goalie and 2 defensemen at the moment.  Hutchison gave up five goals for Columbus last time out.  Quick really struggled vs Calgary, and his save % is under .890 for the season.

Columbus is a finalist in the Bedard sweepstakes, winning just once in their last seven games.  They are 8-20 on the road, and bottom feeders on offense and defense.  I expect Vegas to put up big numbers vs the Blue Jackets, but Quick has hardly been unbeatable lately.   The over has figured in 7 of 10 Columbus games and 3 straight Vegas Knights matches.Take this game to go over the total as well.

UCLA demolished UNC Asheville in the first round 86-53, easily covering the 17-point spread. Northwestern, who opened as a dog but ended up being bet to a favorite, defeated Boise State 65-57 and obviously covered the number as well.

I expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Oddsmakers do too. But I think the O/U is too high here considering both teams are 235th or lower in adjusted tempo and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. UCLA is actually #1 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom.

The Bruins shot 54% against UNC Asheville, which they won’t do again here. But I do expect another strong defensive effort, similar to the L3 games where they’ve allowed 33%, 36% and 37% shooting to go along with 56, 61 and 53 points.

Over the last month, Northwestern has not gone back to back games without shooting below 37% once. They shot 49% against Boise State. So recent history suggests they’ll be off here.

UCLA is 4-1 Under following a straight up win by 20 or more points. 10*

The Bulls have righted the ship a bit with three wins in the last four games. They are 3-1 ATS in that same stretch. Previously, they’d really struggled ATS, covering just 2 of 12 games.

Chicago comes into Saturday in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. That’s obviously the last play-in spot. But it’s a tight lead with Indiana only one-half game back. The Bulls really need this one.

Miami is 7th in the East and barring some late collapse will make the playoffs, or at least the play-in round. But what I find interesting is that Chicago has the better YTD point differential of these two teams.

The Heat have been real money-burners when favored this season, going 15-32 ATS. They are just 4-15 ATS their last 19 games overall.

Bottom line is I don’t think the Heat should be favored here. Take the points. 10*

The Flyers are 2-10 in back to backs, while the Hurricanes are 7-2.  The Canes are 8-1 against teams with a losing record.  The Flyers are 3-12 vs teams with winning records.  Carolina  has lost 3 of 4, are one of the league's best road teams, and should be in an ugly mood after their recent poor play.  The Flyers won last night for just the second time in 10 games, and have lost by multiple goals in 6 of 10 starts.

The Flyers will likely start Sandstrom in net.  He has lost 8 straight.  Between goalie Andersen and the Canes' second ranked defense and PK, Carolina should have their way with the Flyers offense and PP, worst and second worst in the NHL.  Look for Carolina to bounce back in a big way on Saturday night.  Take the Hurricanes on the puck line at -1 1/2.

This number seems crazy to me. I’ve got Tennessee rated as the better team, so there’s no way they should be getting three (or more) points here even though Duke looked awfully impressive in its first round blowout over Oral Roberts.

Believe it or not, Shot Quality numbers suggest Duke was not nearly as dominant as the final score showed against Oral Roberts. That surprised me a bit as the Blue Devils were never threatened in the 74-51 win. But Oral Roberts missed a TON of open shots in that game.

Tennessee only won by three against Louisiana in their first round game. But they led by as many as 18 points and only shot 25% from three. I think the Vols are better than how they looked Thursday.

No Zeigler remains a big deal for UT but this team can play defense. They are #2 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), holding teams to 37.0% overall shooting and 26% from three.

The ACC was really down this year and I think we’re at the peak of the market right now with Duke, who won their conference tournament and is drastically overvalued as a result. I think the wrong team is favored in this 4 vs. 5 matchup. Take the points. 10* 

I think this is a very tough matchup for 4-seed Indiana drawing Kent State as a 13-seed. Champions of the Mid-American Conference, Kent State won’t be the least bit intimidated here

The Golden Flashes have a slightly higher defensive efficiency rating than Indiana. That’s notable as, rarely, do you see the mid-major underdog with a higher defensive efficiency rating than the favored school from a power conference.

Sincere Carry is the player to watch for Kent State. Defensively, I think they can do a good job at limiting Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. 

The Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, 4-0 ATS on a neutral court and 10-1 ATS in the non-conference. They very nearly beat Houston and stayed within seven of Gonzaga. 

Indiana is just 7-9 SU away from Assembly Hall and MAC teams have done quite well recently in this Tournament as underdogs. Take the points. 10*

Kansas State seems like a vulnerable high seed to me. The Wildcats were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason, so it’s a bit of a shock to even see them here in the Big Dance, let alone as a 3-seed. 

The Wildcats were not particularly strong away from home either, going just 8-8 SU overall. They come into the Tournament having lost two in a row, the regular season finale (89-81 at West Virginia and then they were one and done in the Big XII Tournament, losing 80-67 to TCU). 

A bit of ominous history for K State - the last four #3 seeds to lose in the Round of 64 all hailed from the Big 12.

Montana State won the Big Sky Tournament to get here. They were not regular season champions, although I think most who followed the league knew the Bobcats were better than Eastern Washington. Montana State comes in with a 5-1 ATS record as an underdog this season. They were in the Tournament last year.

Montana State gets to the free throw line a lot and I think can find success attacking the rim in this matchup. Defensively, they should be able to exploit Kansas State’s turnover issues. Take the points. 10* 

The Caps travel to St. Louis on Friday, facing the 3-7 Blues. In addition to losing, the Blues have given up 13 goals in their last two games.  For the Season, the St Louis defense has sunk to 28th.  With Binnington sent to the corner, it will likely be Greiss in net.  He has seen very limited action this season and for good reason.  Even with their defensive woes, St. Louis can still put the puck in the net.  They've averaged 4 goals scored in their last 4 games.
The 5-5 Capitals are also scoring in bunches, putting up 13 goals in their last 3 games. We've seen the total go over in three straight in both the Capitals and Blues games.  The Caps are in a pattern of losing following a win, but I think they will have success against Greiss.  Let's stick to what works here and take this game to again go over the total.

I like the underdog here. When the higher seed (in this case, Texas A&M) is favored by three points or less, they are on a money-burning 38-62-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Furthermore, the Big 10 is on a 12-1-1 ATS run vs. SEC teams in the Big Dance! 

Both teams lost in the Final of their respective Conference Tournaments. But I’ve felt Texas A&M comes in a bit overvalued. They were down 13 at halftime to Arkansas in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It was certainly a surprise to see the Aggies finish second in the SEC this year. 

Penn State underachieved much of this year, but they’d won five straight before falling to Purdue by two on Sunday and they are 5-1 ATS L6 games. Also, the Nittany Lions are 13-2 ATS L15 neutral site games and 11-5 ATS as underdogs this season.

A&M is very reliant on getting to the free throw line to generate points, but Penn State is one of the best teams in the country at not fouling. The Nittany Lions also don’t give up a lot of second chance points, something else A&M thrives on.

But the big red flag for Texas A&M is that they allow a high three-point rate. Penn State is one of the Top 10 three-point shooting teams in the country. Penn State doesn’t turn the ball over much either. 10*

The Flames have stepped it up slightly lately after a very disappointing stretch.  They won 3 of their last 5 games but were 0-5 before that.  They've had some solid goal-tending from Markstrom, but he has now played in 9 straight games, and allowed 4 goals in his last start. The Flames have trouble scoring against solid defenses, and the Golden Knights are top ten in goals against.

Vegas has won 4 straight and 7 of  8, surging to first place in the Western Conference. They are back home after a very successful road trip, and are 8-1 in recent home games.  Their offense is on fire, averaging 4.5  goals a game in their last 4.  The Knights have a solid edge in all categories except power play.

Vegas looks like a real contender at the moment, and today's line is quite generous, all things considered.  I am banking on Vegas to continue in their winning ways.  Take the Golden Knights to top the Flames at home today.

Arkansas is the favorite here and is getting the majority of bets. But we’ve actually seen the line go down, which is a signal that Illinois is the sharper side in this 8 vs. 9 matchup. 

When the higher seed (in this case, Arkansas) is favored by three points or less, they are on a money-burning 38-62-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Specifically, 8-seeds are on a terrible 4-16-1 ATS run when favored by three or less over 9-seeds (with 14 outright losses). 

Also boding well for Illinois is the fact that Big 10 teams are on a 12-1-1 ATS against the SEC in NCAA Tournament games! Overall, Arkansas has never beaten Illinois, losing all five head to head meetings. 

Zeroing in on the specific matchup, neither team enters the Tournament in good form. But Illinois is 5-1 ATS as a dog this season and I think they can do a good job at limiting transition, which is what Arkansas wants to do here. 

Arkansas is a bit of a mess right now as well. There was an issue with the coaching staff and reporters following the loss in the SEC Tournament where the Razorbacks blew a 13-point halftime lead. I know the Hogs have been to back to back Elite Eights, but this is not a team I want to back right now. 8* 

The Wild lost last time out but are 7-3 in recent games.  They allowed 5 goals to the Coyotes but otherwise it has been 2 or less in their previous 9 games.  The Wild, missing top scorer Kaprizov, had been limited in offense but have broken out in their last three games with 13 goals.  They'll pit their top 3 defense against the Blues' 27th goals against. 

The Blues have won just 3 of their last 10 games.  They are tough on other cellar-dwellers, but are 0-5 against top teams.  They'll face a very steady net minder in Fleurie.  Their goalie, Binnington, has been up and down of late.

The Wild haven't had much luck against  the Blues in St Louis, but they are the far superior team at the moment and a very solid road team this season.  Look for a revenge win as Minnesota takes this one on the road.

Arizona State is no stranger to these “First Four” games as this will be the third time in the last six years they’ve had to come to Dayton to “play their way in” to the NCAA Tournament. Previously, they’ve gone 1-1 SU in this scenario under Bobby Hurley. 

I like the Sun Devils’ chances of making it 2-1 tonight as they face a Nevada team that’s probably lucky just to be here. The Wolf Pack were not included in the final 68 of most bracketologists’ projections. It was a surprise to see them get the nod over Rutgers after losing three straight - all as favorites. 

Considering they were favored all three times, you may not be shocked to learn that all of those Nevada losses came to non-tournament teams (Wyoming, UNLV and San Jose State). To be fair, the last two were both overtime games. But still, the Torvik rankings have them 97th in the country over the last month. That’s not good. 

I don’t think ASU will be bothered too much by the size of Nevada.  The Sun Devils, who have two former Wolf Pack players on their current roster (transfers), are 28th in the country in defensive efficiency. Nevada’s shot selection is not particularly good according to the ShotQuality numbers.

Arizona State can be inconsistent, but holds wins over the likes of Arizona and Creighton. Nevada is pretty good about not turning the ball over, but there aren’t many teams in the Mountain West with the length of ASU. Also, can’t forget that the MWC is on a horrendous NCAA Tournament run (14-35-1 ATS L50 games, 20 straight losses for teams seeded 10th or lower and 0-7 SU overall the L3 tournaments). Lay the points. 10*

This is an NIT game where Youngstown State will look to get over the disappointment of being bounced from the Horizon League Tourney (where they were the top seed). The Penguins had a great year overall, finishing 24-9 straight up and they have not lost back to back games all season. 

Oklahoma State is the NIT’s #1 overall seed, but has caught an unlucky break in that a scheduling conflict with their home arena (wrestling tournament) has resulted in this game being played at the Beeghly Center, the home of Youngstown State. 

So while the Cowboys are the higher seed and from the much stronger conference, it’s a major disadvantage having to go to a place where YSU is 14-2 SU this season.

Taking the points here seems like a “no brainer” to me and the early money agreed. This will be only the fourth time all season that Youngstown State is catching points.

No Avery Anderson III for the Pokes either and that’s a significant absence. This team is just 2-6 SU/ATS over its last eight games and despite the words of head coach Mike Boynton Jr, I’ve got to imagine there’s some real disappointment on the OSU side over not getting into the Big Dance as an at-large team. Now having to go on the road in the NIT as a higher seed may lead to an unmotivated effort. Take the points. 8* 

I went against the Suns last night and that was a wise decision as they got blown out of the water in Golden State, losing 123-112. Phoenix found itself down 43-21 at the end of the first quarter, so it was pretty much over early. But credit them for keeping things respectable over the final three quarters.

Tonight it’s back home for the Suns against the hottest team in the league, that being the Bucks. Since everyone just saw the Suns get blown out on national TV, my assumption is that the Bucks will take money in this matchup. 

It’s also the second night of a back to back, the third game in four nights and Kevin Durant is still injured. But be aware that this Phoenix team is much better at home (22-11) than they are on the road (15-20). 

But Milwaukee is also in the second night of a back to back and may also be shorthanded. Khris Middleton is likely to be rested and Brook Lopez could be suspended after a late ejection in last night’s 133-124 win at Sacramento.

The Bucks shot 58% from the floor last night and got 46 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Don’t look for those kind of numbers here. This is a great value on Phoenix getting points at home. 10* 

The Vegas Golden Knights have won three straight games on the road, allowing just six goals scored.  Even in their last loss, they only allowed a pair of goals against.  Vegas is a dominant road team, particularly tough to score on in away games.  The Flyers struggle at home this season. Well, the Flyers struggle everywhere at the moment.  They've lost three straight and eight of ten, in most cases by multiple goals.  They've also got the worst offense in the league at the moment, scoring just twelve goals in ten games.  The Knights, who don't have the most potent offense, have more than double that number in the same number of games.  Probable goalies are Hart for the Flyers (very average lately) and Adin Hill, if he returns as expected. Hill was terrific leading up to his brief injury.
The Knights are favored but not as highly as one might expect.  Take Vegas to win easily.

This is a “First Four” matchup in the South region of the NCAA Tournament with a couple of 16 seeds - Texas A&M Corpus Christi taking on Southeast Missouri State - playing for the “right” to likely get beat down by Alabama in the Round of 64.

Texas A&M CC were the regular season champs of the Southland and obviously also won the Conference Tournament to earn the automatic bid. The Islanders enter the Big Dance with a 23-10 overall SU record and have won 12 of their previous 13 games. They are led by Trevian Tennyson. 

SEMO were not the regular season champs in the Ohio Valley, in fact they finished fourth in that league. So it's certainly a surprise to see the Redhawks here. They had to win four games in four days to win the OVC Tournament. This is the first time the program has been in the NCAA Tournament since 2000. 

Before they went on their run in the OVC Tourney, SEMO had lost five of seven games. They are deserved underdogs for this “First Four” matchup.

SEMO likes to play fast (7th nationally in adjusted tempo), but that is likely to work against them here as Texas A&M-CC averages over 80 points/game. I have the favorite rated ahead of a 16-seed (Howard) that’s already in the Round of 64. So I’m not sure the Islanders should even have to be in this game. Look for them to pick up a big win. 10*

I really like the Warriors here. They are 0-3 vs. the Suns so far in 2022-23, but a big reason for that - Mikal Bridges - is now gone, off to the Nets. The kicker is that Kevin Durant, for whom Bridges was part of the package to obtain, is sidelined by injury.

This will be the third game in a row Golden State faces a team minus its superstar. It didn’t matter when they lost by 21 at Memphis (no Ja Morant) last week, but then the Warriors came back and beat Milwaukee (no Giannis) 125-116 in overtime Saturday night.

As was reinforced the last two games, the Warriors are a totally different team at home than they are away. The win over Milwaukee improved their home record to 28-7 straight up. They are just 7-26 SU on the road (9-24 ATS). 

The Suns had a 4-0 SU/ATS win streak snapped last time out, falling 128-119 to Sacramento. 

Golden State is 24-11 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of nearly eight points per game. Steph Curry, who went for 36 pts Sat night, had a 50-point game earlier in the year against Phoenix and that was while being guarded by Bridges.  Lay the points. 10*

The Leafs' 7th best defense is ranked 20 points higher the Buffalos'.  The Sabres have the edge on offense, but it is minimal, and Toronto has a huge advantage on special teams.  The Leafs are 7-3 in their last ten games, beating the Oilers 7-4 in their last game.  They are one of the best home teams in the league this season. 

The Sabres have had some growing pains lately, losing 6 of 7 games.  They were crushed by Dallas and Boston lately, two other solid defensive teams.  The Sabres have had no luck at all against the Leafs this season, outscored 11-5.

The Leafs are a game back from an extensive and successful road trip.  Look for them to rack up a second consecutive home win on Monday.  Take the Leafs on the puck line at -1 1/2.

The Pacers and Pistons just met on Saturday with Indiana winning 121-115. They (the Pacers) also won the only other meeting this season (back in October), 124-115. So that’s 2-0 ATS for them and 2-0 to the Over. 

I think tonight’s game will feature a lot less scoring.

Detroit comes into tonight on a pitiful 11-game losing streak. They are already eliminated from playoff contention and also playing short-handed right now. Cade Cunningham, Hamidou Diallo and Isaiah Stewart all out for the season. In addition, leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks both sat on Saturday. The team is already bottom three in the NBA in scoring.

Indiana played without Tyrese Haliburton, their leading scorer, on Saturday, not to mention Myles Turner , Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell. Amidst all the absences, Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard combined for 58 points. The Pacers are still alive for the play-in tournament.

There figures to be a lot of absences - for both teams - on Monday. Pacers’ coach Rick Carlisle has said he doesn’t expect any of the players who missed Saturday’s game to be back. The Pistons are in full on “tank” mode, so why would they rush anyone back? The Under had hit six straight meetings here in Detroit, prior to Saturday. 10*

The Wild have to be the best defense in the NHL over the medium term.  Add two star-quality goalies in Gustavsson and Fleurie, and you can expect a steady diet of low totals.  It will be Gustavsson in net on Sunday.  The under has figured in 8 or 10 of their last games. Losing Kaprizov has put a further damper on a low scoring Sild offense. 

Arizona wighs in at 24th on defense, which is better than their offense (27th)The Under is 4-1-1 in their last six back to back situations.  The Coyotes should have Vejmelka in net.  While a bit uneven lately, he has held the Coyotes in many games this season.

Bothe teams are playing on 0 days rest.  We'll see two tired teams, both of which struggle on offense.  The Wild are giving 2 or less goals a game on average.  Add a couple of good net-minders, and you have the makings of yet another under.

Last night, Charlotte ended a nine-game Under run. Unfortunately for them, it came in a 119-111 loss to Utah. The Hornets, who are without LaMelo Ball for the remainder of the season, are one of four teams in the league out of playoff contention.

Cleveland is top four in the East and has the second best scoring differential in the league. So, on paper, this should be an easy win for the Cavaliers. But they are coming off a 119-115 loss to Miami Friday night.

The Cavs played two straight in Miami, winning the first game. Now they’ll be in Charlotte for another couplet. 

I’m expecting points in this one. That may seem strange with Cleveland leading the league in scoring defense and Charlotte being the top Under team. But we saw 230+ points in each team’s last game. This number is too low.

When these teams met back in November, it was a 132-122 final, won by Cleveland. And that was with the teams combining to go a horrid 22 of 73 from three. Take the Over here. 10*

Don’t go expecting many points in this Atlantic 10 Tournament Final. It’s all on the line this afternoon for both Virginia Commonwealth (the A-10 regular season champion) and Dayton (the preseason favorite). Neither team has done enough to earn an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. So both need to win here. 

VCU is 17th in the country in defensive efficiency. Dayton is a not-too-shabby 56th. 

Dayton also plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (352nd out of 363 teams). Their games only average 62.6 possessions. VCU isn’t too far ahead of that at 68.2. 

We’ve seen some lights out shooting from both teams in this tournament, but my view is that it will halt Sunday. Dayton shot 60% against Fordham yesterday and will regress hard from that number here. VCU has been scoring considerably more than its season average the last seven games and is also due for some offensive regression.

The teams split the two regular season meetings, each winning on the road. Those games saw 120 and 125 total points scored. 10*

Normally, I might be a bit leery of laying points with Alabama in this spot as they have a 1-seed all but sewn up for the NCAA Tournament. But the Crimson Tide are playing with revenge Sunday and I look for them to blow out Texas A&M.

In the final regular season game, the Crimson Tide went down to College Station and lost 67-61 as a 1-point underdog. They shot just 33% from the field, including 4 of 16 from three. I expect a much better effort at the offensive end today.

A&M won handily yesterday against Vanderbilt, making it 10 wins in the last 11 games (also 10-1 ATS). But the Aggies were very lucky to beat Arkansas Friday in the quarterfinals. They were down 13 at the half in that one.

Alabama has posted two double digit victories so far here in Nashville. They’ve allowed an average of 55 points/game. 

The Crimson Tide have won each of the last five times they’ve sought revenge from a prior loss on the road. They are 4-1 ATS in those games. 10*

This is the Ivy League Tournament Final. Yale and Princeton tied for first place in the regular season (both 10-4). Yale had the better overall record (21-7 vs. 20-8) and got the regular season crown based on sweeping the two regular season meetings with Princeton. So they are the top seed in this tournament and Princeton is the #2 seed.

With the Ivy League Tournament involving just four teams, Yale and Princeton only had to win once to get here. Yale had little problem with Cornell, winning 80-60, while Princeton had to battle back to outlast Penn 77-70. 

But Princeton has a MAJOR edge in this Tournament. The games, including this Final, are being played in their home gym. So much for the “benefit” of being the #1 seed, Yale! 

I also don’t expect to see Yale shoot the way it did yesterday vs. Cornell. The Bulldogs went 10 of 16 from three (62.5%) while Cornell was just 8 of 30. Three-point variance is a big part of College Basketball handicapping. Playing at home, I cannot see Princeton falling victim the way Cornell did on Saturday. 

About those two regular season losses to Yale - Princeton led both games at halftime. In the second meeting, which was here at Jadwin Gymnasium, the Tigers were up 19 in the second half before blowing it and losing in overtime. Princeton was a 2.5-point favorite for that game. Getting points with them at home in this situation is too good to pass up. 10*

Cal Santa Barbara got a big break yesterday when the top seed in the Big West Tournament, Cal Irvine, lost. Now the Gauchos are the favorites to win the Tourney and get the automatic berth into the Big Dance.

Of course, UCSB will now have to defeat the team that upset UC Irvine, that being Cal State Fullerton.

Both teams come into this Final pretty hot. UCSB has won six in a row while going 5-1 ATS. The lone non-cover was by half a point. CS Fullerton has won eight in a row, but five of the wins have come by four points or less.

These teams split the two regular season meetings. The favorite has covered 13 of the last 19 times they’ve met. So history is on UCSB’s side in that regard.

I just think the Gauchos are the better team and we’re getting some really nice value here. 10*

I like the Under in what promises to be the most meaningful game between the Kings and Suns in some time.

Sacramento is a surprising second in the West at the moment, tied with Memphis. They are 2.5 games ahead of Phoenix, who is in fourth.

The Kings have yet to beat the Suns this year, losing to them 122-117 and 120-109. 

The Suns haven’t had much trouble scoring without Kevin Durant (injured), putting up 130+ points in consecutive games. But they are probably in line for some offensive regression here.

Same with the Kings - who have made almost 54% of their field goal attempts the past five games. 10*

I like the Under in tonight’s ACC Tournament Final. Both Duke and Virginia are going to make the NCAA Tournament irregardless of this outcome. So it’s basically just pride (and an ACC Championship!) on the line.

Expect Duke to be motivated, however. The Blue Devils were wronged in the previous meeting with Virginia as they should have won outright in regulation. But a foul call against Virginia was overtuned, a decision the ACC later admitted the officials got wrong. 

Even with overtime, the teams still only combined for 131 total points. (Virginia won 69-62 as 6.5-point favorite).

Virginia was an incredibly efficient 24 of 40 on two-point field goal attempts in that game. I do not see that happening again tonight.

Virginia also has a top 10 scoring defense in the country, so Duke’s offense should be held in check as well. 10*

The Golden Knights are on the road against a very good Hurricanes side.  Vegas plays a close, tight-checking game on the road and will likely have Adin Hill back in net , a plus based on his recent play. The under is 11-2-1 in the Knights' latest away games.  The Knights have a top eight goals against average this year, but might be outmatched by the Hurricanes" Number two defense. Andersen should be in net on Saturday.  He has allowed just 1 goal in his last two starts.  The under has also dominated the Canes recent home games, 5-0-1 in their last six.

The total for this game is just average, too high for a pair of defense-first teams with solid net minders.  Take the Under all the way to the bank.

VCU looks to beat St. Louis for a third time this season, only this time there’s a lot more on the line. The Atlantic 10 figures to be a one-bid league this year, so only the winner of the Conference Tournament is getting in. 

The teams got a day off between their quarterfinal victories and this semifinal. Both teams romped to victory in the quarterfinals, St. Louis beat George Mason 82-54 and VCU beat Davidson 71-53.

The favored Rams are now on a seven-game win streak. They won the first meeting 73-65 as a three-point dog at St. Louis, then came from behind to win going away, 79-67 (as a 7 point favorite) at home in the second meeting.

VCU has covered the number in five of its previous six victories. The only one they didn’t, they won by 6 laying 6.5. 

St. Louis is just 2-10-1 ATS off an ATS win, so it’s hard to trust them here after the performance they had against George Mason. 8* 

Toronto lost in this building Wednesday night, 108-100 to the Clippers. I think they’ll have better success tonight against the LeBron-less Lakers.

Without LeBron, the Lakers have been better than expected as they’ve now won two in a row and six of eight overall. Most of the credit goes to Anthony Davis, who had 30 points and 22 rebounds against Memphis the other night. But the Grizzlies were without several key players as well, Ja Morant among them. 

When these teams met early in the season, LA didn’t have James or Davis. The Raptors destroyed them 126-113 and were up 70-47 at the half.

This game is undoubtedly important to both sides as they try and make a playoff push. But I have the Raptors rated as the better team, even if James was in there for the Lakers.

Should be a bounce back night at the offensive end for Toronto after shooting 38.5% vs. the Clippers. 10*

I like Kentucky in the fourth and final quarterfinal matchup of the day in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats will face Vanderbilt and are decided favorites here to advance. They are seeking to avenge their only defeat over the last six games, a two-point defeat at Vandy on March 1st.

UK was a nine-point favorite in Lexington in that loss. They fell behind early and could never quite fully recover in what turned into a dismal shooting night, 32.2% overall and 15.8% from three.

But the Wildcats are rested Friday and Vandy is not. The latter had to beat LSU 77-68 yesterday to get here. That was the Commodores’ fourth straight win and 9th in the last 10 games. But I’m still not a believer. 

In this season’s first meeting, Kentucky rolled to a 16-point victory. They’ve won six of seven over Vandy.

Liam Robbins is hurt for the Commodores and he’s a big loss. I don’t see the team continuing its recent offensive surge (77.4 points L5 games) as Kentucky has held opponents to score less than 30% of their points from three. Lay it. 10*

The Ducks are an all round poor team, worst or close to it in every category this season, but they have been managing to hold the score down in most of their recent games.  Much of this is due to their goalie, Gibson, who has played very well in a losing cause most nights.  They don't have a lot of quack on offense and just one game has gone over in their last 6 appearances.

The 4-6 Flames have face tough competition lately.  They got a shutout from Markstrom in their last game.  Perhaps his play will turnaround down the stretch.  The Flames will need him in prime form for any chance at a wild card spot.  4 of the Flames last 6 games have also gone under.  Calgary has a slightly better than average defense but they've had trouble scoring lately.   They won't likely face much of an offensive thrust from the Ducks.  I am wagering on a lower total on Friday night.  Take the Ducks and Flames to go under.

Michigan State is rested. Ohio State is playing for the third time in as many days. I see no reason why not to lay what I consider a very short number in this Big 10 quarterfinal matchup.

These teams just met in the final regular season game. Michigan State won 84-78. The Spartans also won the first meeting, far more convincingly, 62-41.

Ohio State has covered five in a row, but this is a team that dropped 14 of 15 Big 10 games at one point. They haven’t been that convincing so far in this tournament, beating Wisconsin and Iowa by only eight and four points respectively. (They did lead Wisconsin big in the first half).

But tired legs are likely to be an issue here for the Buckeyes, who at one point failed to cover nine straight games in the regular season. 

Michigan State should be coming into the Big 10 Tournament on a four-game win streak. But they let one slip away in OT against Iowa. The three wins have all been by six points or greater. Sparty is rested here and has really had Ohio State’s number. 8*

Engulfed in controversy, top seed Alabama begins its SEC Tournament journey on Friday, facing a Mississippi State team that had to go to overtime yesterday to get by Florida.

It’s not always the case, but generally I like to look at the Under the game after a team went to overtime. Sometimes the betting public just looks at the final score and is unaware the game even went to OT. In the case of Miss State, the score was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation yesterday. That would have been an easy Under (total closed 131) if not for the extra five minutes of basketball.

Miss State has now gone Over in five straight, so this O/U line has been bet up. I don’t agree with that move at all.

Alabama is #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. Miss State is #6! 

The Crimson Tide like to play fast (#2 in adjusted tempo), but Miss State goes very slow (#333 in adj tempo). If the Bulldogs are able to slow this game down, then it should be an easy Under. The last time these teams played, they combined for just 129 points and 8 for 43 shooting from three. (Bama won 66-63).  10*

Southern Utah is going to be my 10* WAC Tourney Game of the Year as the Thunderbirds play Utah Tech in a quarterfinal matchup late Thursday. 

Southern Utah is the #3 seed in this tourney and they got a bye into the quarterfinals by virtue of finishing the regular season with a 12-6 conference record. Only Utah Valley and Sam Houston State were better.

Utah Tech is the 11-seed in this tournament and had to win yesterday just to get here. The only team that finished below Utah Tech in the WAC standings was New Mexico State, a program that had to forfeit its last seven games. 

Utah Tech stunned Stephen F Austin in overtime last night with an 80-76 upset. It was just their fourth win over the last 12 games. I cannot see them winning two nights in a row. The last time the Trailblazers won back to back games was right after Christmas. 

Utah Tech is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five times off an ATS win. 10*

Indiana has turned things around a bit by going 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS over its last seven games. They have to love the fact that Houston, who has the worst record in the NBA, is up next on the schedule.

But I wouldn’t want to lay this many points with the Pacers. The Rockets also did just win a couple of games recently and that counts for something, even if both were against the Spurs.

Hard not to like the Over here as Indiana’s last game ended up 147-143 (loss to Philadelphia). There was no overtime.

Houston allows 121.3 points/game on the road, so the Pacers should have no problems scoring.

Indiana can obviously be sieve as well. They allow 117.9 points/game for the year. So Houston should score too. 10*

New Jersey has no trouble scoring goals but their defense has been shaky lately and in spite of a 7-3 record they are still giving up too many goals. New Jersey has seen 7 straight games go over.  Their main man in net, Vanacek, has struggled, with just an .821 save % in his last 5 starts. The Devils are  one of the very best road teams, facing a Capitals team that is only barely over .500 at home.  The Capitals haven't won many home games lately and are just 1-5 vs good teams.  Kuemper has played well behind a very depleted Caps' defensive corps, but has been facing a ton of shots in recent action. As far as the Capitals' scoring goes, any time you have Ovechkin, you have potential for offense.  I expect another high scoring game on Thursday.  Take the Devils and Capitals to go over the total.

Illinois draws Penn State in the second round of the Big 10 Tournament on Thursday. The winner here will move on to face Northwestern, who looks to be a pretty “weak” two-seed, so the winner here could very well find themselves in the semifinals. I think the team that advances here is going to be Illinois, who I’ll lay the points with.

Penn State did close the regular season pretty strong by winning five of its last six games. The only one they lost, the Nittany Lions blew a 19-point lead at home to Rutgers. But PSU has certainly ended up on the right side of some close calls as well down the stretch. The last three wins have all come by four points or less and they needed a buzzer-beater to beat Maryland Sunday. The Nittany Lions were down as many as 16 in that one.

This is a double revenge spot for Illinois, who lost twice to Penn State in the regular season. The first time was back in December, 74-59 as a 10.5-point home favorite. Then they lost by 12 in State College (93-81) as a 3.5-point road favorite. 

Looking at this number, we’re getting a great price on the Fighting Illini, who were favored by more on the road than they are now at a neutral setting.

Now oddsmakers had to adjust based on the two regular season results. But Illinois is the better team here. Penn State went 24 of 52 from three in the two regular season meetings. They won’t shoot that well again tonight.  Remember this tournament is played in Chicago, so it’s basically like a home game for Illinois. 10*

Toledo is the top seed in the MAC Tournament and begins its quest to capture the conference’s automatic NCAA Tournament berth with a quarterfinal matchup against 8-seed Miami Ohio.

Only the top eight seeds qualify for the MAC Tourney, so the RedHawks are the worst of the lot here in Cleveland. They went just 6-12 SU in conference play, a far cry from Toledo’s 16-2 SU mark. 

The top seeded Rockets won both regular season meetings, by three on the road and by 18 at home. In each case, they closed as a double digit favorite as they are here. I’m not at all scared of this number.

Toledo is top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 85.7 points/game. Just way too much firepower for Miami to keep up. Over their last five games, the Rockets have averaged 92.4 points/game. 

Miami recently closed as a 1-point dog at Western Michigan and was barely favored at home over Bowling Green. Those are two teams that didn’t even qualify to be in Cleveland. This is a huge mismatch. 8*

This is the quarterfinals of the SWAC Tournament with 1-seed Alcorn State taking on 8-seed Texas Southern. Right away, the fact the 1-seed is only a slight favorite should jump out to you.

I’m all about fading Alcorn State in this tournament as the Braves have been one of the luckier teams in the entire country this season. They’re 15-2 SU L17 games, but that includes two overtime wins and five others by five points or less. 

One of the OT wins came against Texas Southern on January 14th. Alcorn State then captured the rematch 89-81 just a couple of weeks ago. Texas Southern went just 8 of 33 from three in those two games.

While Texas Southern is on an 0-3 SU/ATS run entering the tournament, two of the losses were by four points or less. 

Bottom line: this is a matchup of two teams with misleading records. Alcorn State is NOT as good as its record while Texas Southern is certainly better than theirs. Alcorn State is only 5-8 ATS as a favorite. 10*

Cleveland needed overtime to escape with a win over Boston on Monday. Normally, beating the Celtics would be cause for celebration. But because Boston chose to rest so many players for that game, the Cavs were left feeling more relieved than anything.

Since that game went to OT, the 118-114 final score is a bit misleading. The game was tied 109-109 at the end of regulation.

Cavs’ PG Donovan Mitchell averages more than 20 points/game against every NBA team, but he hasn’t been that great against Miami in the past, averaging only 21.8 points. In two previous meetings this season, Mitchell was held to 13 and 16 points.

These are the two top scoring defenses in the NBA. Cleveland allows 106.6 points/game while Miami allows 109.1. 

So I anticipate a low-scoring contest tonight. Miami got 59 points from its bench in a wild 130-128 win over Atlanta two nights ago. That’s certainly not happening again. 10*

The Wild just aren't giving up goals lately, and at 8-2 in their last 10 games, they usually score just enough to win.  They are a top three defense for the season, but certainly tops in the league in the medium term, allowing just 9 measly goals in 8 games. Both goalies have been stand-outs.
What is up with the Jets? They have won just once in 7 games, giving up some ugly numbers; 24 goals in just 6 games.  This is supposed to be a top 10 defense, but you would never believe it lately.  Star goal-tender Hellebuyck is not holding them in many games with a goals-against % of just .854 in his last 5 starts.
Minnesota won both meetings this year, allowing just 2 goals while scoring 10.  This includes a 4-1 victory in Winnipeg.  Look for continued dominance by the Wild on Wednesday.  Take the Underdog Wild to win.

New Mexico, who was actually the last unbeaten team in the country at one point (14-0), is overvalued coming into the Mountain West Tournament because of their “must win” status. The Lobos faded badly down the stretch, losing 8 of their last 11 games. I don’t think there’s any reason to expect a massive turnaround this week.

Now Wyoming, New Mexico’s 1st round opponent here in the MWC Tourney, had a terrible regular season. Plagued by injuries, the Cowboys finished last in the Mt West with a 4-14 SU conference record. But I believe they’re being undervalued in this spot.

The Pokes played New Mexico tough in both regular season matchups. After losing to them by just a single point at home back in December, 76-75, they went to Albuquerque and pulled off a 70-56 upset as 10-point underdogs. Those who follow this conference know that winning at “The Pit” is no easy chore. 

Wyoming also recently beat a decent Nevada team in what was their final home game of the regular season.

New Mexico’s defense has been really bad down the stretch and thus they are not a team you want to lay points with right now. If they do advance here, there may be some value on them as a dog. But not here. 10*

Fresno State has won just one of its last six Mountain West games, a 74-69 triumph at Air Force on 2/21 where they were 2.5 point dogs. But I like FSU here as their slow pace and solid guard play should work to their advantage against a Colorado State team that offers little in the way of rim protection.

This is also a big revenge game for Fresno State, who has lost the last nine matchups with Colorado State and failed to cover any of the last 10. Looking at the matchup, there’s really no reason for the one-sided domination, which seems rather random. The last meeting ended up being a three-point game, 60-57.

I expect this to be another low-scoring slog. It should be noted that Colorado State hasn’t topped 60 points in any of its last three games away from Fort Collins. 

Fresno State has been pretty unlucky all season when it comes to opponents shooting the three. Teams have hit 37.5% against them from behind the arc, but fortunately CSU shoots just 29.7% from distance away from home.

I just don’t think you can trust Colorado State laying points, even a small number like this. Fresno State has averaged 94 points over its last two games, and while that’s skewed by facing Chicago State in the last game, I like the Bulldogs plus the points in this one. 8* 

No Ja Morant for Memphis and no LeBron James for the Lakers. Who’s more likely to step up without their best player on Tuesday? The Lakers still have Anthony Davis, but I believe the Grizzlies remain the better team and thus am taking the points in this one.

Memphis comes in having lost its last two games, both of which came on the road. They were blown out in Denver with Morant (113-97) then remained competitive against the Clippers without him (135-129). 

The Grizzlies are still second in the West, seven games behind the Nuggets but only one-half game ahead of Sacramento. So they can’t afford to drop another one. Keep in mind they dropped 51 points in the 3Q vs. the Clippers on Sunday and were up by as many as 16 points in that game.

The Lakers just beat Golden State, as a 5-point dog Saturday, to make it five wins in the last seven games. But I’d still rate them as the third worst team in the West, especially without James in the lineup. 

I just think this is a great value on the better team Tuesday night. 10*

Oral Roberts is the only team in the country that did not lose a conference game during the regular season. So it would be quite the shame if the Eagles failed to win the Summit League Tournament. Their resume probably isn’t good enough for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney, so expect no letdown in tonight’s Conference Tournament final against North Dakota State. 

North Dakota State upset South Dakota State, the 2-seed in this tournament, last night. The Bison are the 3-seed, but came into yesterday’s semifinal as a 5-point underdog with seemingly all the money on the other side. NDSU shot the lights out (56.1% for the game) and led by as many as 21 points! 

I don’t see the Bison playing nearly as well tonight against what is, by far, the best team in the Summit League. It was an uncharacteristically narrow win for ORU yesterday, 70-65 as 13-point favorites (against St. Thomas). For the season, the Eagles have outscored conference foes by 16.3 points/game.

Oral Roberts won the two regular season meetings with North Dakota State, 92-69 and 74-66. We’re getting a “discount” on the spread here because a) it’s a tournament final and b) ORU has now failed to cover eight straight games.

The Eagles are coming off an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from three (just 24%). Combine that with the likely shooting regression we’ll see from North Dakota State and it all adds up to a big win for the favorite tonight. 10*

The ACC was not particularly strong this season, so you can imagine the quality of teams we’re getting in the first round of the conference tournament. 

Georgia Tech finished 14-17 SU but the Yellow Jackets have covered the spread in eight straight games. Florida State is 9-22 SU and was pretty woeful down the stretch. The Seminoles are 2-9 SU and ATS L11 games.

While I might lean to Ga Tech here, the Under is the better play. The Yellow Jackets’ last five DI games have all gone Over, thanks to them shooting far better than normal. They’ve averaged 79.8 points on 47.5% shooting. For the season, this team shoots below 40% away from home while averaging 65.9 points/game.

FSU is no offensive juggernaut either. Expect them to struggle mightily at the offensive end as GT allows opponents to make just 29.9% of 3PA.

The Under is 39-19-1 in the Seminoles’ previous 59 neutral site games. This number is far too high. 10*

There’s already been a big shakeup in the Big Sky Conference Tournament with top seed Eastern Washington losing its first game. Northern Arizona and Montana State are already on to the semifinals and two more teams, including the winner of this game, will join them there tomorrow.

The winner here meets 2-seed Montana State in the semis. Weber State is the 3-seed while Sacramento State is the 6-seed. This is the first tournament game for both teams.

Weber State won the two regular season meetings, although both were close and very low scoring (50-48 and 52-49). It should be noted that Sacramento State is one of the 10 “slowest” paced teams in the country per adjusted tempo. 

It also should be noted Sacramento State has just two wins in its last 10 games. One of those came in the last regular season game, 76-74 at Portland State, a game the Hornets won despite making just one three pointer. The difference was a couple of free throws with three seconds to go in regulation.

This line just looks short to me, given that Weber State is obviously the better team. The Wildcats never lost back to back games all season in conference play. If this turns into a FT shooting contest, bid edge to Weber State, who makes 76% of their attempts from the charity stripe while Sacramento State hits only 69%. Lay the points. 10*

Denver has won seven of eight (also 7-1 ATS) and just avenged the one SU loss during that stretch by routing Memphis (113-97) on Friday. But now is probably a good time to fade them as they’re laying a pretty big number to a Toronto team that has won six of eight games.

The Raptors were also able to avenge a recent loss their last time out. In their case, they were playing with immediate revenge after losing to Washington 119-108 just two days prior. The second time around, also in DC, it was 116-109 with the game going to OT. 

What was most impressive was that Washington shot 58% from three and the Raptors still won.

The Raptors’ road record (12-20 SU) isn’t great, but overall this is a team that is better than its record, having outscored opponents over the course of the season.

The Nuggets are just 7-11 ATS this season when coming off three consecutive wins. 10*

The Senators have won five straight games, each by two and often more goals.  They won big in the trade deadline, and so far Chychrun seems to be adjusting well.  The Blackhawks  lost Kane, Domi and 3 other significant pieces.  They've now lost 4 straight, managing just 6 goals scored while allowing 16.  The Senators are just 3 points out of a wild card spot, and have a legitimate shot.  This is a young team with considerable potential.  The Blackhawks have dreams only of Bedard at this point.  Ottawa has been winning on the road as well as at home lately.  This is a game they should win easily.  Take the Senators on the puck line at -1 1/2.

Let’s start today in the Colonial where Charleston takes on Towson in the second of two semifinals. Charleston is surprisingly NOT the top seed in the CAA Tourney, despite being considered the #1 team in the league all year long and winning its final seven regular season games. That honor went to Hofstra, who is playing in the other semi and is currently on a 12-game win streak.

Charleston did make it eight straight wins with a blowout of Stony Brook in the quarterfinals yesterday. That game was never competitive as the Cougars raced out to a 19-2 lead and never looked back. They actually only ended up shooting 38.2% overall and 27% from three. 

Towson, Charleston’s opponent tonight, also had an easy time in the quarters with an 86-60 rout over Delaware. The Tigers shot nearly 60% from the field and were up 46-20 at halftime.

Towson played Charleston tough twice during the regular season, losing by only two and eight points. One of those went to OT and the other saw the Tigers up at the half. Towson went 2-0 ATS in the two meetings.

Towson is a Top 50 team nationally in three-point percentage and still managed to score 86 points yesterday despite finishing the game just 29% from beyond the arc. They hold teams to 42.3% shooting, second best in the CAA, and are also the league’s second best rebounding team. I’m taking the points in this one. 10* 

There’s a lot of hand wringing over the Clippers right now, deservedly so, as a team this talented should never really lose five in a row. But here we are and the Clips are just 33-33 on the year, leaving them 8th in the Western Conference standings. This is a team that came into the season as the odds on favorite to win the NBA Title. 

Bookending the five-game losing streak are a pair of one-point losses to the Kings. One of them was the stunning 176-175 final that went to double OT.  Two nights ago, they lost 128-127 in Sacramento.

There was another OT loss in the mix (at Denver on 2/26). So it’s not like LA is getting beaten badly. They probably should have won most of these games.

Memphis certainly didn’t deserve to win Friday when it visited Denver. The Grizzlies lost 113-97 as a 5.5-point dog. That was with Ja Morant, who is now suspended for two games. 

In addition to no Morant, the Grizzlies are also without Brandon Clarke (out for season with Achilles injury) and Dillon Brooks (also suspended). This is a get right game for the Clippers. 10*

We’re down to the semifinals in the Sun Belt Tournament (taking place in Pensacola, FL) and there’s certainly been some upheaval along the way with two of the top three seeds losing yesterday (Southern Miss and Marshall). 

This chaos creates a bit of a clear path for Louisiana to nab to the SBC’s automatic NCAA Tournament bid. The Ragin’ Cajuns are the lone top three seed left here in Pensacola and will be facing 11-seed Texas State here in the semis.

Texas State has now won three times in the last four days to get here. They upset 3-seed Marshall 71-68 (as an eight-point dog) yesterday. That was after outlasting Georgia State 81-76 in the first round and a very easy 65-36 win over Old Dominion in the second round.

But the tank could very well be “running on empty” here. Louisiana, who beat Texas State twice during the regular season, has only had to win once yesterday. The Ragin Cajuns had no problems with Ga Southern on Saturday, winning 67-49 and covered the nine-point spread.

After all upheaval this weekend in Pensacola, Texas State clearly stands out as the weakest of the four teams remaining. I’ve got the other three semifinalists (Louisiana, South Alabama, James Madison) all rated fairly evenly. Texas State is well below that trio. Tip your cap for what the Bobcats have done so far, but their run ends here in what should be a blowout defeat. They lost by a combined 28 points in the two regular season meetings with Louisiana, who has a top 55 offense. Lay the points. 10* 

This must be a dispirited Coyotes team at the moment.  They have a depleted roster, losing their two top defensemen and a better than average center in Bjugstad.  They were pummeled by the Canes last time out.  Not to blame Vejmelka who has been heroic for the Coyotes this season, but his goals against avg. is 5.54 in his last 4 starts.

The Devils are off a  shoot-out loss to the Knights, so will be all in on Sunday.  They are one of the very best road teams in the league at 22-4 this season.  They are capable of some very good numbers these days, scoring 7 goals against both the Avs and Flyers.  Adding the jewel of the trade deadline in Meier sure won't hurt the already formidable offense.

In spite of the Coyotes' surprising success at home this year, they don't have much of a team to run out against New Jersey today.  Take the Devils on the puck line at -1 1/2

The NBA starts to get even more national TV time this time of year and we’ve got what looks to be a great matchup in the Western Conference early Sunday afternoon as Dallas hosts Phoenix.

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Suns recently went out and got Kevin Durant. The Mavs got Durant’s former Brooklyn teammate Kyrie Irving.

The Suns have won in blowout fashion each of the two games since Durant joined the lineup. But those wins were against Charlotte and Chicago. This will be a much tougher matchup and not only is it the Suns’ fourth straight road game, it’s their third in the last five days.

The Mavs, coming off an impressive 133-126 win over Philadelphia where both Irving and Luka Doncic scored over 40 points, are bidding to make it back to back wins for the first time since the All-Star Break. This will be their fifth game since the Break. All have come here at home.

While this may seem like a difficult matchup to handicap because of the recent drastic changes in makeup of the two teams, my view is that Dallas is a steal at this price at home. 8*

We’ve reached the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament where San Francisco will take on Santa Clara in the late game to determine who goes on to battle Gonzaga in one of Monday’s semifinals. 

San Francisco had to win a game to get this far and had no problem doing it as the Dons easily downed Pacific last night 80-63 as a 9-point favorite. USF pulled away in the second half, thanks in large part to putting the “clamps down” defensively. They held Pacific to just 4 of 21 shooting from three.

Doing that against Santa Clara is a much tougher task, but fortunately the Dons are getting points here and the number looks to be inflated, probably because the underdogs are playing without rest. But, as we saw yesterday in the two OVC Conference Semis, rest can sometimes be overrated in these situations.

In fact, early money has come in on the dog, a move I agree with. 

This is a double revenge game for San Francisco, who lost both regular season meetings. So the Dons will be highly motivated to get the outright win. Despite those regular season results, I have these teams rated pretty evenly. Oddsmakers did as well installing each as a three-point favorite at home in the two regular season meetings. I actually think the time off works AGAINST Santa Clara here as they could very well come out rusty. 10*

These are the two worst teams in the NBA. Houston is 13-49 and has lost 11 straight games. San Antonio actually has a worse point differential, but has won two straight (after losing 14 in a row) and is now 16-47 on the year.

I expect no defense to be played in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team in the league in terms of points allowed, giving up 122.0 per game. The Rockets aren’t far behind at 118.5 points/game allowed. 

The Over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.

The Over is also 16-5 the Spurs’ last 21 times off an ATS win. (They not only won, but obviously covered their last game as a six-point home dog against Indiana). 

This is just the third time all season that the Spurs have gone Under in three straight games. They’ve never gone Under in four straight. 10*

The up and coming Senators have won four straight, including a convincing victory over the Rangers in their last game.  They have been very good at home and will have their shiny new trade acquisition, Chychrun, on display on Saturday.  The Blue Jackets lost a goalie and a solid defenseman at the deadline.  Hutchison, fresh from the AHL, and the Vegas Knights system, will likely start in net.  The Jackets have joined the less than ideal NHL 30-30 club, 30th in goals allowed and 30th in goals scored, that is.

The Senators are finally reasonably healthy and are pressing for a wild card spot.  This always was a team with potential and it is starting to show.  The Jackets, by the way, are an ugly 7-17 on the road.  Look for Ottawa to take it to a Blue Jackets team on a back to back road situation.  Wager on the Senators on the puck line at -1 1/2.

LSU has been abysmal in conference play, going just 2-15 with one of the wins coming all the way back on December 28th. Both wins are at home. So you can't like the Tigers’ chances Saturday in Gainesville.

Florida has won just three times over its last 10 games, but is still a rightful favorite in this matchup. They beat LSU by 11 in Baton Rouge on January 10th. The Gators were two-point favorites for that contest.

LSU hasn’t won a true road game all season (0-8) so this boils down to whether or not we want to lay the points with Florida. I do. LSU is 5-15-1 ATS its last 21 games overall and 4-17 ATS its last 21 Saturday games.

Florida has covered five straight games against teams with losing records. They also just won by 10 at Georgia earlier this week.

I like to back home teams in the final game of the regular season and with LSU mired in a complete tailspin, Florida should roll.10*

It’s been a disappointing season overall for Richmond, who comes into the final game of the regular season sporting a 14-16 overall SU record including 7-10 SU in conference play. Both the vast majority of those losses have occurred on the road. At home, the Spiders are 12-3 SU.

So I like them laying a short number to George Mason Saturday. GMU is probably a touch overvalued right now as they’re on a five-game win streak. The last three wins have all been by six points or less.

This is also a revenge spot for Richmond as they lost by 4 points at GMU back on New Year’s Eve. 

The Spiders have won each of their last three home games, beating Fordham, Loyola and St. Louis. Fordham and St. Louis are two of the top four teams in the A-10. 

George Mason is coming off an OT win where their opponents (Fordham) shot just 3 of 25 from three-point range. The Patriots have just three true road wins all season and average only 64.1 points/game away from home. 8*

Even though they’ve won and covered four straight, I don’t like this spot at all for Golden State. The Warriors played last night and were 115-91 winners over the Clippers. While they ended up winning comfortably, this is still the second night of a back to back and there’s still no Steph Curry.

With a final score of 115-91, you would think that the Warriors coasted Thursday. But they were actually down by 11 at the half! The Dubs were very fortunate that the Clippers finished 9 of 43 from three-point range, including missing 18 of 19 to start the second half.

New Orleans is shorthanded at the moment as well, but rested and coming off a 121-110 win over Portland. The Pelicans are 2-0 vs. the Warriors in this 2022-23 season, both teams beating Golden State when they were in the second night of a back to back, which is again the case here.

While it was back in November and the Warriors rested multiple starters, the last time these teams played, New Orleans won by 45. 

This has all the makings of a spot where Golden State “phones it in.” New Orleans, currently 10th in the West, can’t afford to do that and will be the more motivated side tonight. Take the points. 8*

The Oilers and their new defenseman both impressed in a one-sided 5-2 victory over the Leafs.  They are at home to the Jets on Friday.  Winnipeg has lost 4 straight, and has allowed 15 goals in their last 3 games, a very poor showing for a defense-first team like the Jets.  Winnipeg broke out for 5 goals in their last game but previous to that one, they had scored just six goals in six games.  The Oilers don't lack for offense, sitting first in goals scored and PP.  It is the defense, or lack of it that can cause problems (20th G.A., 25th PK).

The Jets are barely over .500 on the road this year and their recent play does not inspire confidence.  Connor McDavid has been absolutely on fire, while Jets star net-minder Hellebuyck has struggled in his last two appearances. Give me the Oilers to win on Friday.

Cal Baptist and Southern Utah wrap up their regular seasons Friday before heading to the WAC Tournament next week. Seeding for the WAC Tournament is unusual in that it is not based on conference record, but rather an advanced analytic metric that incorporates conference and non-conference performance.

One of many reasons I wouldn’t want to lay points with Southern Utah here is that the Thunderbirds have lost two straight; 64-57 at Sam Houston State and 83-78 at home to Grand Canyon. Overall, SUU is just 3-4 SU its last seven games.

Cal Baptist also has revenge. They lost as 2.5-point home favorites to Southern Utah back on Feb 1. The final score of that game was 72-71. That game was decided on an “old-fashioned” three-point play with one minute left. Neither team scored after that with Cal Baptist missed the potential GW jumper as time expired.

Given that Cal Baptist was favored in that first meeting, I do not understand why they’d be getting so many points in this rematch.

There’s a big difference in the tempo these teams like to play at as Southern Utah plays fast while Cal Baptist plays slow. Look for the underdog to limit possessions in this game, helping them to (at the very least) stay within the number. 8*

This is quarterfinal action in the Big South Tournament, the last of four games to be played in Charlotte today. Radford is the tournament’s 2-seed while Winthrop is the 7-seed. 

Radford comes into the Conference Tournament on an 0-4 ATS slide, but did win their last regular season game, 67-65 over Campbell. Earlier in the year, the Highlanders rattled off nine straight wins, a streak which included two wins over Winthrop - by 14 on the road and by 3 at home. 

Winthrop comes in on a four-game SU win streak (3-1 ATS), but their last three games were all against teams that finished bottom four in the conference and had to play in the first round of the tournament. The Eagles definitely can score (averaging 82.0 points L5 games) but they are also very poor defensively (349th in efficiency) and turn the ball over quite a bit. 

Radford likes to play slow and held Winthrop to an average of 59 points in the two regular season matchups. Winthrop’s recent scoring surge was already likely to have a downturn, considering they averaged 73.9 points/game for the season. Facing a team like Radford only expedites that expected downturn. 

Getting Villanova transfer Bryan Antoine back should be big for Radford. Antonie missed the final three regular season games. He and DaQuan Smith form one of the better 1-2 combos in this league. Winthrop’s turnover issues will come back to bite them tonight as Radford forces teams to turn it over on 21% of all possessions. Number is way too short here. 10* 

Charlotte comes into Friday night’s home game vs. Orlando having gone Under in five straight. While much of the focus right now is on how the Hornets’ offense will perform without Lonzo Ball (out for the season), looking at recent results it’s actually been the Hornets’ defense that’s primarily responsible for the string of Unders.

Over those last five games, the Hornets have allowed an average of just 107.4 points/game. This is well below their season average of 118.2 points/game allowed. Needless to say, I believe defensive regression is on the horizon for Charlotte.

At the offensive end, where they put up just 91 points in a loss to Phoenix Wednesday, the Hornets get a favorable matchup here facing an Orlando team that has allowed 121 or more points in each of its last three losses. Wednesday saw the Magic give up 139 to Milwaukee. 

Charlotte may not be Milwaukee, but they did shoot well (54.3%) the last time they faced Orlando. That game ended up as a 119-113 final, won by the Magic, who were two-point underdogs.

No matter who comes out ahead this time, I expect this game to make it Over the total. Charlotte is 4-0 to the Over the last four times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. This O/U is much lower than where the number closed (236.5) for last month’s meeting. 10*

In what was the final game of their annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” the Spurs ended a 16-game losing streak on Tuesday by beating the shorthanded Jazz 102-94 as 9.5-point underdogs. Not only was it San Antonio’s first road win since December, it also marked the first time this season that they won a game in which they were trailing entering the fourth quarter! 

The rare SU victory was largely a byproduct of the Jazz not just being shorthanded, but also shooting a season-low 35.3% from the floor. I am not expecting the Spurs to repeat that kind of effort on the defensive end tonight as they are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency.

The Jazz made just five field goals the entire fourth quarter against a team that allows 122.4 points/game for the season.

Indiana has covered four straight with the only SU loss coming in OT against Boston (142-138). But they too carry a bottom five defensive rating. So I’m expecting a real high-scoring affair tonight in the Alamo.

In the first home game back after such a long trip, I can’t imagine San Antonio will play anything close to “good defense.” When these teams met back in the second game of the season, the final score was 137-134 and there was no overtime! Indiana is coming off a 124-122 win against Dallas. Something else to consider: both of these teams are top four in the league in pace. So there’s going to be plenty of possessions, not much defense and it’s not like this O/U is uncharacteristic for either team. 10* 

The Red Wings have lost 3 straight, essentially putting paid to their play-off chances.  They have been outscored 15-3 in those three games.  Detroit traded away a top tier defenseman on Wednesday and other players may soon follow.  With Hronek gone, that defense has taken a step backward.  The Kraken are expected to stand pat so  no trade turmoil to deal with as we head up to the deadline.  The Kraken are a very good road team with a very solid offense.  I expect the Red Wings to be off their game as more trades arise in the next day or so.  Seattle beat Detroit just 10 days ago.  The Kraken are still in position for their first venture into the play-offs.  Look for all out effort on Thursday as the Kraken win on the road.

The Predators have essentially gutted their team, losing Ekholm, Jeannot, Niedereiter, and Granlund so far to trades. There could still be more players to fall.  The Preds will be in something like a a state of shock today.  Meanwhile the Panthers, off a 4-1 victory over the Lightning, have so far not engaged in the trading frenzy.  Florida is a good home team with a fine offense, who will look to revenge a recent ugly loss to Nashville.  Look for the Panthers to kick the Preds while they are down today.  Take Florida to win.

This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Horizon League Tournament. You may be surprised, given that this is the #4 vs. #5 seed, one team is favored by this many points. But not only is Northern Kentucky substantially better than Oakland, they are at home (only the Semis and Final are played at a neutral site - Indianapolis - for this particular Tourney).

These teams just played in the regular season finale. NKU won 78-69 as a 2-point road favorite. Based on that result, this line actually looks a little short. Now, Oakland did win here in Highland Heights - 64-63 as a 6.5-point dog - back in January. But that was a bit of a “head-scratching” result considering NKU led by five at halftime and Oakland shot below 40% for the game. The Norse led by seven with just over three minutes to go.

In the rematch last Saturday, NKU won handily despite Oakland making 15 more free throws on 16 more attempts. 

Northern Kentucky is 13-3 SU at home this season and has lost just one time in their last five games overall. That one loss was by a single point.

Even more impressive about NKU’s recent form is their last four games all came on the road. Oakland got to play its last four all at home and still went just 2-2 SU. There’s a gulf between these two Horizon League sides, much larger than what you’d think based on the seeding. Lay it! 10*

This is the first of four first round matchups in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (aka “Arch Madness”) in St. Louis on Thursday. Note the early tip time of 1 PM ET. 

I like Illinois State here in a battle of struggling teams. The Redbirds just snapped an 0-6 SU/ATS losing streak by routing Evansville 72-53 in the regular season finale. Northern Iowa has just one SU win over its last nine games, so they are hardly an ideal favorite. 

That one win for UNI came at Missouri State on 2/18 and was by just three points. Going back to mid-January, the Panthers have just two wins by more than three points. 

This is a double revenge spot for Illinois State, who lost both regular season matchups to UNI. But both games were close and decided by a total of just eight points.

Actually, the revenge angle runs even deeper as ISU has lost NINE straight times to UNI, including two MVC Tourney exits. So you can bet the underdogs will be motivated coming into this one. Northern Iowa is 4-12 ATS if they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. They lost 83-75 to Belmont on Sunday. Take the points. 8*

Carolina suffered a no-rest road loss vs the Ducks last time out.  They are still on the road, but have had 4 days off.  The 'Canes are a very good road team this year, facing the Knights who are less effective at home.  Carolina sports the second best defense and fifth-ranked PK, combined with a top nine offense.  The Knights are good on defense (10th, 2.8 GA), poor on the PK, and only average on offense this season.  They managed 0 goals against a stiff Colorado D last time out, and the Hurricanes are a definite step up from the Avs.

The 'Canes are 8-2 lately, allowing just a minuscule 10 goals in those wins.  Andersen had an off-game in the loss to the Ducks, but his previous three starts were superb.  These two teams don't play each other often, but when they do it has been the 'Canes on top.  I expect the same sort of result on Wednesday. Take the Hurricanes, rested and reset after that embarrassing Ducks loss, to steal this one on the road.

This is the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The OVC is down this year after losing the likes of Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay to the Missouri Valley and ASUN. Regular season champ Morehead State was incredibly lucky this season (#1 luck rating at KenPom), so I think this Tourney is pretty wide open.

The second of two first round games Wednesday (the whole tournament is played in Evansville) pits Southern Indiana against SIU Edwardsville. These teams split their regular season series, each winning on the other’s floor. Neither has fared well at the betting window recently. Southern Indiana is 2-10 ATS L12 games. SIUE is 2-11 ATS L13. 

Southern Indiana transitioned into Division I this season and proved a lot of doubters wrong by posting a winning overall record (16-15 SU). The Screaming Eagles are the OVC’s third highest scoring team and second best three-point shooting team. They have four double digit scorers plus the conference’s leading rebounder (Polakovich). 

Plus there’s a bit of a edge to Southern Indiana, whose campus is just 13 miles from where this tournament is being played. 

SIU Edwardsville stumbled down the stretch, losing four straight before a 93-78 win over SEMO on Saturday. The line has already moved against the Cougars and I agree with that. Take the points. 8*

The 76ers look to avenge a 101-99 loss to the Heat tonight. That two-point setback took place on Monday and was the Sixers second straight defeat. But prior to that, they’d won and covered five in a row. On the flip side, Miami was 0-4 SU/ATS its previous four games before beating Philly. The Heat are 4-12 ATS L16 games and haven’t covered two in a row since early January.

So I like the road team, playing with revenge, laying a short number. Miami has been terrible ATS at home this year, going 8-19-2.

It was a tough spot for Philadelphia on Monday, coming off another close loss at home (to Boston) on Saturday. The Sixers ended up turning the ball over 18 times and ended up trailing the Heat by as many as 11 points. But despite all that - and missing several layups in the second half - the Sixers still had a chance to win at the end of regulation when James Harden’s three-point try bounced off the back of the rim.

Neither Bam Adebayo nor Tyler Herro played particularly well for the Heat Monday, but they still had five players finish in double figures. Adebayo figures to struggle again here as he’s got the tough assignment of dealing with Joel Embiid. The Heat normally don’t shoot well from three (just 33.3% for the season) but were 15 of 37 on Monday. I don’t see a repeat of that shooting tonight.

Philadelphia hasn’t dropped three in a row since early December. With so many road games looming and seeding on the line, I can’t see them losing this game. They are 18-7 ATS in revenge spots this season. 10*  

As I wrote about yesterday, the ACC is way down this season. This has resulted in a team like Pittsburgh, picked to finish 14th in the preseason poll, currently topping the conference standings. The Panthers come into Tuesday ranked #25 in the country but I could probably name 50 teams that would be favored over them on a neutral court.

Notre Dame isn’t one of them, but it does “speak volumes” that this line is so low (even in South Bend) considering the Fighting Irish are just 10-19 SU on the year and have lost seven in a row (and 11 of 12). 

For many years, Notre Dame had a tremendous home court edge at the Purcell Pavilion (Joyce Center). All 10 of their wins this season have come here and tonight marks HC Mike Brey’s final home game. Brey is stepping down after 23 years at the helm. It figures to be an emotional environment tonight. 

The Fighting Irish are hoping to get back a couple of key players (Starling and Hammond) for tonight as they were really short handed against Wake Forest on Saturday. Still, I like them getting points in this situation. Each of the L6 games have seen the Irish lose by eight points or less, four of those by four points or less.

Plus, I think Pitt is completely overrated at the moment. 10*

The 25th and 26th ranked offense  meet up when the Wild host the Islanders on Tuesday.  The two teams sport top ten defenses and PKs, so goals may be scarce. It has been three straight unders for the Islanders who are missing their main scorer in Barzal.  Minnesota has gone under the total in eight of nine games The Wild are just a very defense-driven club. 

Minnesota's Gustavsson held the Leafs to two goals in his last appearance, and has held the opposition to two or less goals in six of seven games.  The Isles net-minder Sorokin has allowed just 2.4 goals a game this year, and has a .937 save % in his last five games.  Look for the Isles and Wild to do what they do best and keep the puck out of the net on Tuesday.  I'm wagering on another Under.

Chicago went into the All Star Break as losers of six in a row and they failed to cover the number in all six defeats. But it’s been a much different team coming out of the Break as the Bulls have soundly beaten both the Nets (131-87) and Wizards (102-82). 

Tonight, they go North of the Border to face Toronto, who is coming off a 25-point loss in Cleveland. I think this is a good time to sell high on the Bulls while simultaneously buying low on the Raptors (who are 4-1 ATS coming off a double digit loss).  

Toronto is 19-13 SU at home this season. Chicago is just 10-20 SU on the road. The last time the Bulls won a road game was January 28th in Orlando. Excluding a win over in Europe, that is the Bulls’ only road win since January 6th! 

The Raptors went 4-1 SU/ATS on a recent homestand, before going 0-2 ATS at Detroit and Cleveland (did win the Detroit game, straight up). Overall, this team has won seven of nine. They are 8-3 ATS L11 at home. 

After shooting over 50% at home each of the last two games, the Bulls are likely due for some shooting regression tonight. Washington also shot horribly against them on Sunday. Coming off back to back sub-100 point games, you’ve got to think Toronto is due for some positive regression at the offensive end. 10*

The ACC is way down this year. Not a single team from the conference is currently in the KenPom Top 25. That speaks volumes.

Who is the best team in the ACC right now? Most would say Virginia, but they’ve lost two in a row and before that only beat Notre Dame by two and Louisville by three. The answer to the question may be … Duke. 

The Blue Devils have won four straight and seven of nine. One of those two losses, at Virginia in overtime, they definitely should have won. 

One game that Jon Scheyer’s team certainly did NOT deserve to win was January 4th at NC State when they were soundly beaten 84-60 as 4.5-point road favorites. But you’d have to go back almost 30 seasons (to 1994-95) to find the last time NC State swept Duke in a season series. 

Look for Duke to avenge that loss from January tonight in the final home game of the season. The Blue Devils have been bet up to 7-point favorites as of this writing, but I still like them to cover. NC State just lost by 25 at home to Clemson on Saturday, which says a lot about their squad. Duke turned it over a lot (21 times) in the first meeting, which won’t happen again tonight. They are undefeated at home (15-0) this season, winning by an average of 16.7 points/game. NC State has lost 20 straight times here in Durham and is just 6-14 SU overall vs. Duke the L20 meetings. Lay the points. 10* 

This is an ugly matchup for my first conference tourney play, but I’m showing solid value on Green Bay tonight at Wright State in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament. 

This game is being played at Wright State, but it’s just way too many points to lay in this situation, even if Green Bay is 3-28 this year. Wright State is coming off a tough four-game road trip where they won only once, that being Saturday at Detroit - by 11 points.

Now the Raiders did destroy Green Bay in both regular season meetings, winning by 32 and 31 points. But that can lead to a sense of overconfidence. They (Wright State) may already be thinking about Milwaukee, who would be their quarterfinal opponent (assuming they win here). 

Conference tournaments give new life to teams, even those who had poor regular seasons like Green Bay. The Phoenix are basically playing with “house money” tonight. They have lost by more than 17 only once since the second meeting with Wright State. That was at Horizon League regular season champ Youngstown State. 

Wright State is 3-13 ATS the L16 home games following three or more consecutive road games. This is the most points the Raiders have been asked to lay in any game this season. 10*

The Avs and Knights both have top ten defenses and middling offenses this year. Vegas plays a tight-checking game on the road with great success.  They are 17-5 away, and nine of their last ten road games have gone under the total. Meantime the Avs have limited the opposition to under 2 goals in 4 of 5 games.  Georgiev has a save % of .960+ in his last two starts.  Hill hasn't played in some days, but he has been very good this season.

The two teams don't usually produce much offense when they meet. If I had to pick a final score based on their history, I'd jump on 3-2.

With a total of six available, I am wagering on the the Avalanche and Golden Knights to go under the total. 

It’s not been a good start to the second half of the NBA regular season from the New Orleans Pelicans, who have dropped two games, 115-110 at Toronto and then 128-106 at New York.

But the Pelicans should at least be thrilled tonight to be back at home, where they have not played in 17 days. Their next three games are also all out on the road.

It was a dismal shooting performance against the Knicks, especially from three (2 of 19). Speaking of dismal shooting performances, the Orlando Magic shot just 38.9% from the field and 20.7% on threes in their loss Saturday to the Indiana Pacers (121-108).

I anticipate we’re going to see better shooting from both teams here on Monday, particularly from three. New Orleans has scored less than its season average of 114.7 points/game in five straight, so they are definitely due some positive regression. I can’t see a sixth straight game with 110 points or fewer. The Pelicans are shooting 37.3% from three at home this season.

Orlando is 16-6 to the Over in non-conference games this year. Those games have averaged 231.3 points. The Magic are also due some positive regression when it comes to their shooting as they’ve been below their season average in points four of the last five games. Take the Over here.

For a second time in three days, I’m looking to fade Maryland Eastern Shore. It didn’t work out Saturday as the Hawks ended up bludgeoning Coppin State 78-57 on the road. But this is a much tougher opponent that UMES is facing Monday.

After winning seven in a row from January 9th to February 2nd, UMES has dropped three of five overall. This includes a pair of losses here at home, to Norfolk State and NC Central, who are probably the best two teams in the MEAC this year. 

UMES was an underdog in both of those losses. That’s obviously NOT the case here. While the Hawks have been profitable as chalk in 2022-23, it’s not often you see them laying this many points. Tonight will mark just the fourth time all season that they’ve been favored by six or more. Only once were they favored by eight or more and they did not cover the spread that time (beat Delaware State 68-66 as an 11.5-point favorite).

Morgan State is coming off back to back wins, both at home, over Howard and Delaware State. Howard is the co-leader in the MEAC right now. Both games saw the Bears score more than 80 points. They shot the lights out Saturday vs. Delaware State, making 58.9% of their FG attempts including 9 of 15 from three.

This is a revenge game for Morgan State, who lost at home to UMES by 14 back in January. It was a one-point game at half, but the Bears ended up going just 4 of 18 from three in that one. I expect better shooting tonight (maybe not as good as Sunday) and them to stay inside a generous number. Take the points. 10*

The Sabres  have won 4 of 5 games, beating the Panthers on Friday.  The Capitals, with Ovechkin returning, beat the Rangers on Saturday, but must play on the road on Sunday morning.  That win was the Capitals' first in 7 games.  The Sabres have improved on defense over the season, but are still a very offense-driven team with the 3rd best goals against and a top 5 PP.  The Capitals scored 6 goals against the Rangers but that has not at all been the norm.  In their previous six games, the Caps' 21st ranked offense as been underachieving if anything.

Buffalo beat the Capitals last time they met.  Sunday morning will come around very quickly for an aging Capitals team.  I will take the better and fresher Sabres to win at home.

I like Georgetown today as a good old fashioned contrarian home dog. This line has moved in the Hoyas’ direction despite Providence taking the majority of the bets, likely a sign of “sharp money” taking the points. I’m also not a huge believer in this Providence team.

The Friars just lost on Wednesday, 87-69 at UConn. All eight of their losses this second have come on the road. There’s obviously a big difference between UConn and Georgetown, but there’s also a difference between getting and laying 7.5 points. 

Unranked home dogs of +8.5 or less vs. ranked opponents are 58-37 ATS (61%) this season. 

Despite their paltry SU record, G’town has covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games. 

Providence has lost three straight and five of six on the road. 10*