The set-up: Two non-conference, but hungry teams collide on Sunday night and in my opinion, this one sets up as more of a defensive affair than a wide open shootout. The Raptors will be looking to bounce back after a 121-119 loss to Houston on Friday, while Dallas comes in off a 106-101 home win over the Pistons on Friday. Toronto will be especially focused here after back-to-back losses. The Raptors average 113.9 PPG and they allow 108.5. Dallas won’t be rolling over though as the Mavs enter having won two straight. The Mavs average 109.4 PPG, while allowing 109.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that Toronto has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of its last 22 when the total in the game is greater than or equal to 220, while Dallas has seen the total go “under” in eight of 12 already this season in trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent (Toronto won 116-107 at home on Oct. 26th.) This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Iowa State comes in hungry after its 80-76 setback at Kansas. Mississippi comes in off a loss as well, getting smoked 74-53 by Alabama. Previous to their latest loss though the Cyclones had won two in a row. Iowa State averages 78.5 PPG and it allows just 65.1. The Runnin Rebels are no slouches either, averaging 77.9 PPG and allowing 68.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game, while Mississippi is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of thre points or less or pick. The Cyclones have been playing more consistently of late and I believe that translates into a “W” here.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, an outright upset wouldn’t be a complete shock. I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, but I think this one will come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. After seven straight wins, complacency sets in for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE revenge game for the Bears as well! Brown had won six in a row before a loss to Yale last weekend. Suffice it to say, revenge is a dish best served cold. 

The pick: Yale won that game 70-67 and I expect another very competitive battle here as well. Additionally note that Brown is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Yale is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game. Grab the points.

10* Brown

The set-up: Belmont is 13-4 after beating Tennessee State 92-74 this past weekend. Overall Belmont is averaging 86.3 PPG, while holding the opposition to 66. Dylan Windler had 25 points, six boards and four assists in the most recent victory. Murray State has won seven straight, most recently pulling away for an 82-72 victory over SIU Edwardsville. The Racers are averaging 84 PPG and they’re allowing just 66. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bruins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while the Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning SU records and 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 80 points or more in a SU victory in their last contest. Look for the home side to take advantage. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think this a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog tonight. The Pelicans come in “under the radar” in my opinion. The Thunder enter off a 123-114 home win over the Blazers, but with two nights off before a game at home vs. the Bucks on Sunday night, I expect the home side to get caught looking past its opponent tonight. And who could fault the Thunder in doing so? They’re playing at home and facing a team playing without its superstar (Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is out) and coming off a game just last night. 

The pick: New Orleans though can put points on the board with the best of them. Note that the Pelicans average 117.1 PPG, while the Thunder average 114. Take it for what you will as well but the Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS this year as a home fav in the 6.5 to 12 points range. A great “situational” play on the Pelicans.

10* play

The set-up: A couple of hungry non-conference teams collide on Wednesday night and I don’t think that the “home court advantage” can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Memphis comes in as the “hungrier” team here as it looks to snap a six-game losing streak. The Hornets look poised for a letdown though in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Charlotte averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Grizzlies averages only 100.6 PPG, while allowing 103.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though but memphis 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Charlotte is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest. I like Memphis to finally get off the schneid in this favorable home matchup. 

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I think the the Habs are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The Coyotes have actually been better on the road than at home this year, but after their big win in Ottawa just last night, I think they’ll be “dog tired” in the second game of the back to back and in this difficult venue. The Canadiens on the other hand are out to atone for a 5-2 home loss to the Flyers. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Arizona is still just 52-119 in its last 171 vs. teams with winning records and only 6-17 in its last 23 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation, while Montreal is 10-4 in its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. All in all, I feel that the price is right. Play on Montreal.

10* play

The set-up: Ole Miss comes in off an 84-67 win over Arkansas in its latest action, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. Overall the Runnin Rebels average 79.4 PPG. The Tide come in as the “hungrier” team after their 71-68 loss to Tennessee. Alabama enters averaging 76 PPG. A date vs. the Rebels is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track though as Mississippi has covered in just five of its last 17 trips to Tuscaloosa. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a tight SU loss of 3 points or less. I’m banking on home court playing a big part in the outcome of this one. Play on Alabama.

10* play

The set-up: Two hungry non-conference teams collide in the nation’s capital on Tuesday night and in my opinion, goals will be at a premium. San Jose will be eager to atone for a dreadful 6-2 road loss to Florida, while Washington also has some questions to answer after its atrocious 8-5 loss in Chicago in its most recent action. San Jose comes in focused here after three straight losses. Washington fans can empathize, as the defending champs enter having lost five straight! From a situational stand point, I’m absolutely expecting a battle from start to finish and to me, that just screams “under.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go “under” the number in 31 of its last 46 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game, while the Capitals have seen the total go “under” in three of its last four following a three games or more losing streak. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* Under

The set-up: I think that this one sets up great for a higher-scoring shootout between the non-conference opponents. The Kings got caught “looking ahead” to this one after their blowout loss in Brooklyn just last night. The Kings haven’t fared well in the second game of back-to-backs of late (0-7 ATS in their last seven), so if they want to reverse that trend, clearly they’re going to have to match pace with the high-flying home side. The Raptors on the other hand enter off a 119-90 destruction of the Grizzlies on Saturday and I look for them to carry that offensive momentum over here as well vs. this Western Conference foe. The Kings average 114 PPG and they allow 115.1. The Raptors average 113.9 PPG and they allow 108.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the King shave seen the total go “over” the number in all ten games they’ve played in this year as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Toronto has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten off a home win by ten points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* Over

The set-up: The Jayhawks have to have a “short memory” here as they look to bounce back from a tough 65-64 defeat to Virginia over the weekend. The setback dropped Kansas into a four-way tie for the Big 12 lead. Iowa State is clearly no push over, but note that it’s won just one of its last 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse. After a 72-59 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, I think the Cyclones stumble in this difficult road venue. Kansas plays with revenge here as well after falling 77-60 in Iowa State back on January 5th. Note that the Cyclones have not swept the season series between the schools since 2001. 

The pick: Additionally note that Iowa State is 35-16-3 ATS in its last 54 following a SU loss, while Iowa State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog. The situation and the trends/numbers both point to a home side blowout. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Clearly it’s not out of the question. I’m expecting a battle though obviously and am going to grab the points in the end. The Rockets come in off a 138-134 OT win over LA on Saturday, while Philly lost 117-115 to OKC in its most recent action. Houston is 6-4 overall in its last ten and it averages 112.6 PPG and it allows 110.5. But after their three-game win streak was snapped in dramatic fashion last time out, I think the 76ers are ripe for another letdown here. Overall Philadelphia averages 115.4 PPG and it allows 112.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the 76ers are a poor 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the Southwest division, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Grab the points and expect a war.

10* play

The set-up: If you’re betting this game, then you probably don’t need the “overview” of this game. These teams and their strengths/weaknesses are well known by even the most casual NFL fan. The Patriots of course are the most storied team in the league and QB Tom Brady is a lock for the hall of fame. The Patriots rolled to a 41-28 win over the Chargers at home last weekend, but I think they’ll have their hands full in this difficult road venue. The Chiefs smashed the Colts 31-13 at home and after falling 43-40 in New England back on October 18th, I believe they’ll get their revenge here. I’ve never been fully convinced of the Patriots this year and overall from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50 passing TD’s in the regular season!) and the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* Chiefs. 

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as each comes in off a game on Saturday. The Hornets played and beat the Suns at home, while the Pacers played the Mavericks at home. Indiana plays with revenge here today as well after falling 127-109 in Charlotte back on November 21st. The Hornets average 112.1 PPG and they allow 111.4. The Pacers average 108.7 PPG and they allow just 103.4. That’s first in the NBA (note that the “under” is 15-6 for the Pacers this season when they play at home.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four vs. good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Indiana has seen the total go “under” in 13 of 18 as a home favorite this season and in three of four in revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points in. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Detroit comes in off a 6-4 loss in Calgary and heads out even further West to now face the Canucks, who enter off a 4-3 home win over Buffalo. I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. Wings’ goaltender Jimmy Howard is just 4-6 with a 3.12 GAA on the road this year. Detroit is 8-15 overall away from friendly confines, averaging 2.83 goals and allowing 3.74. Vancouver has scored 14 goals over its last three games. Jacob Markstrom is 10-8 with a 2.58 GAA at home this season. Vancouver averages 3.13 goals and allows 2.87 at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vancouver is 6-2 in its last eight home games after a win in which it scored four or more goals in, while Detroit is just 1-6 in its last seven on one days rest. For all the reasons listed above, I think this is great value on the under-valued home side.

10* play

The set-up: From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up great as a higher-scoring affair. Washington is out to atone for a 2-0 home loss to the Islanders, while Chicago is looking to bounce back after a 4-3 road loss to the Rangers. Despite the lacklustre effort at home, note that the Capitals are still 14-9 on the road, averaging 3.35 goals and allowing 3.26. The Blackhawks are just 8-15 at home, averaging 2.92 goals and allowing 3.46. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 17 in non-conference games this year, while Chicago has seen the total go “over” in six of seven already this season when playing with two days rest. This number is low, play the “over.”

8* Over  

The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. After their 76-55 road win over Portland to move back to .500 in league play (2-2), I believe the Toreros will suffer a predictable letdown here. The Gaels improved to 3-1 in conference action after an impressive home win over Santa Clara last time out. Overall San Diego averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 67.7. Saint Mary’s is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 65.6. The Gaels have quietly been playing a lot better with three straight wins and I believe they carry that momentum over here vs. this now complacent San Diego side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Mary’s is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while SD is 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

10* St Marys

The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. I think home court will prove to be the difference maker for the hungry Pacers though. Dallas lost 105-101 at home to the Spurs on Wednesday most recently, while Indiana lost 120-96 at home to Philadelphia on Thursday. While they haven’t played yet this year, the Mavs have won three straight in the series, including a 109-103 victory in the latest back on Feb. 26th, 2018. The Mavs though have dropped five of their last seven and overall they’re just 11-11 ATS on the road. Dallas averages 109.8 PPG and it allows 109.7. Indiana is 11-10 ATS at home. Overall the Pacers average 108.7 PPG though, while allowing just 103.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Indiana is a solid 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

10* PACERS

The set-up: Virginia will look to build off its impressive 81-59 win over Virginia Tech last Tuesday. The Cavs were efficient 58.5 percent from the floor collectively. Virginia is 16-0 this year. Overall the Cavs allow just 51.7 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the country. The Blue Devils come in off an exhausting 95-91 OT loss to Syracuse in its latest action and I think it’ll be “dog tired” here after that marathon. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring under. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though by Virginia has seen the total go “under” the number in its last eight as an underdog and in 19 of its last 26 on the road, while Duke has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 14 as a favorite this year and in seven of nine at home. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* Under

The set-up: Both teams come in hungry, as each enters off a loss. The Blues are just 20-25 overall and they most recently fell 2-1 in OT on the road to the Isles. The Bruins are 26-20 and they most recently lost 4-3 on the road in Philadelphia last night. Previous to their most recent setback though, the Blues had been playing well, winning three straight. St. Louis will have to match pace with its difficult opponent tonight, as it’s just 9-10 on the road, averaging 2.37 goals and allowing 2.47. The Bruins won’t be leaving anything to chance today after going just 1-3 in their last four. Overall though Boston is 16-7 at home, averaging 3.48 goals and allowing 2.43. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as more of an offensive affair (note the plus money return on the line!).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine road game following an OT loss in its previous game in which it was held to one or less goals, while Boston has seen the total go “over” in six of its last eight when playing on back-to-back days. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Over 10* 

The set-up: Two hungry teams collides on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, points will be plentiful! New York enters off a 108-105 home win over Philadelphia on Sunday, while Washington comes in off a frustrating 140-138 OT loss at home to the Raptors this weekend. The Wizards have taken both meetings between the clubs so far this season. The Knicks won’t be lacking motivation here though after losing four straight and 12 of their last 13. Note that New York has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of 25 on the road this year already. Washington had won three of four previous to its latest setback to the Raptors. The Wizards have seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of 21 at home so far this year. 

The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total go “over” the number in 20 of its last 30 as an underdog, while Washington has seen the total go “over” in six of its last eight when playing with three or more days rest. This number is low, play the “over.” 

8* OVER

The set-up: Edmonton comes in off a 7-2 home win over Buffalo and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here as it looks to avenge an earlier loss to Vancouver as well. The Canucks come in off a satisfying 5-1 home win over Florida. Both teams are still in the playoff race. Both have struggled with consistency this year, but for me this play comes down to the trends. 

The pick: As note that the Oilers are 6-2 in their last eight after scoring five goals or more in their previous game, while the Canucks are a poor 4-11 in their last 15 when playing on two days rest (also note that the Oilers are already 17-11, +7.6 units this season in revenge a loss vs. an opponent). Play on the revenge-minded visitors.

*10 Oilers

The set-up: I think 7-10 LBSU is severely overmatched here. The UC Irvine Anteaters enter at 14-4 overall. LBSU averages 75 PPG and it’s allowing 76. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Deishaun Booker has been a bright spot by averaging 15 PPG though. UC Irvine averages 70 PPG, but it allows just 64. The Anteaters are deep and talented are hitting 44 percent from the floor as a team thus far. 

The pick: Additionally note that LBSU is a poor 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after playing its previous game as the favorite, while UC Irvine is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite or pick. Lay the points.

*10 UCI

The set-up: Two hungry non-conference competitors go head-to-head on Wednesday night and in my opinion, points will be plentiful. Brooklyn comes in having won five of its last seven, most recently pulling away for a 109-102 win over the Celtics. D’Angelo Russell led the way with 34 points, five boards and seven assists in the victory. Not to be outdone though, the Rockets come in red hot as well after winning 14 of their last 18, most recently destroying the Grizzlies 112-94 at home. James Harden would explode for 57 points in the victory. 

The pick: When these teams layer on November 2nd it was the Rockets that pulled away for the 119-111 win. I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well as I look for each team to push the pace from start to finish. This number is low, play the “over.”

*10 over 

The set-up: After winning eight of their last nine, I think the Knights stumble in this difficult road venue. Most recently Vegas managed a tough 4-3 OT win over lowly Chicago on Saturday. Can anyone say letdown spot here North of the border?! The Jets have won four of their last five, most recently beating the Ducks at home on Sunday. 

The pick: Both teams have been hot and it wouldn’t be difficult to write a compelling argument for either to actually win this game. However note that Vegas is already just 8-10 (-4.6 units) this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest, while Winnipeg is 15-8 (+5 units) this year after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest. The price is right, play on Winnipeg.

*10 Jets

The set-up: Minnesota enters off a tough 110-106 home win over New Orleans on Saturday night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here vs. this equally as difficult non-conference opponent. The 76ers enter off a tougher than expected 108-105 road win over the Knicks on Sunday. Minnesota averages 111.6 PPG and it allows 111. Philadelphia is averaging 114.6 PPG, while allowing 112.5. 

The pick: The Wolves have won four of their last five thanks in large part to a renewed commitment on the defensive end of the floor. Minnesota has in fact seen the total go “under” in 20 of its last 30 road games when the total is greater than or equal to 220. Philly has lost two of its last three, but it’s seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven following a road victory. I think this number is a little high, play the “under.”

10*

The set-up: The Blazers come in off a 116-113 loss in Denver last night. I think the Blazers though regroup quickly and get back to their winning ways in this favorable matchup on Monday night. Note that despite the loss to the red hot Nuggets, Portland still won the turnover and rebounding battle, while shooting a very respectable 45.5 percent from the floor overall. The Kings come in off a satisfying win over the Hornets in their last outing, but I think they’ll struggle in this conference match-up. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have been simply terrible in this spot for bettors, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. the Western Conference. Look for Portland’s depth to prove to be too much for the Kings to keep up to down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Sabres enter off a 5-3 loss at home to Tampa Bay, while the Oilers come in off a 3-2 home loss to Arizona on Saturday. These teams haven’t played yet this season, but the Sabres have won four straight in the series, including a 5-0 road victory last January 23rd. With a chance to avenge that pathetic effort and to atone for the listless setback at home to the lowly Coyotes, I think the Oilers find a way to get the job done here against a Buffalo team which is just 3-6-1 in its last ten. The Oilers are just 3-9-0 in their last 12, but I think that home ice will prove to be the difference here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Buffalo is just 2-7 in its last nine non-conference road games following a home loss in which it allowed five or more goals in. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay it.

10* play

The set-up: Portland’s rolling after winning six of its last seven and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Blazers average 111.9 PPG and they allow 109.7. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 25.8 points for Portland. Clearly the Nuggets won’t be rolling over though, as they come in having won seven of their last nine. Denver is averaging 110.7 PPG, while allowing 105.4. Nikola Jokic is averaging 19.2 points for Denver. Portland will be very aware of the fact that Denver is 14-6 ATS at home, winning by an average margin of 11.7 PPG this season. With both teams pushing the pace, from a situational stand point there’s no question that this one sets up as more of a higher-scoring shootout.

The pick: Note as well though that Portland has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last eight after scoring 120 points or more in its previous contest, while Denver has seen the total go “over” in not surprisingly 16 of its last 26 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Both teams played yesterday. The Isles lost 2-1 at home to the Rangers, while the Bolts came from behind to knock off of the Sabres 5-3 on the road. TB is averaging 4.1 GPG and it’s allowed three goals or less in 12 of its last 18. The Isles are averaging 3.00 GPG overall and allowing 2.6. 

The pick: TB has performed well in this spot for bettors though, going 6-2 in its last eight in the second game of a back-to-back scenario. The Isles have done well in the second game of a back-to-back as well, but this is a match-up which has confounded them for years (just 1-10 the last 11 in this series.) Look for TB to come in focused on the task at hand and lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I love the surging Eagles to catch the Saints a little “flat footed” after their week off. Philadelphia once again defied the odds last weekend with a win in Chicago, as the Bears banged a FG off the cross bar as time expired for the victory. New Orleans went 13-3 in the regular season, but I think that “rest” will lead to “rust” here. The Eagles have been in must win mode for weeks now and that mentality, along with the experience from actually winning the Super Bowl last season, will once again keep this game extremely competitive in my opinion. While the Eagles’ offense dealt with plenty of issues this year, the defense was once again a strength and I think the unit is an overlooked factor here. Note as well that this is an in-season “revenge” game, as Philly was destroyed 48-7 in New Orleans back in Week 11. 

The pick: Nick Foles is under center this time for the Eagles though and I think the experience and momentum that he brings to the table is big as well. Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after four or more SU victories, while New Orleans is just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite this season and and just 1-4 ATS following a divisional contest. I won’t call for the outright, but look for this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: San Antonio took the first game of this home and home set 154-147 in double OT on Thursday. Clearly its payback time for the Thunder on their own floor. LeMarcus Aldridge exploded for a career-high 56 points, nine boards, four assists and four blocks to lead San Antonio’s victory, but clearly I’m not expecting a repeat performance here. The Spurs are just 9-11 on the road this year. Russell Westbrook had 24 points, 13 boards and 24 assists in the setback on Thursday for the Thunder. OKC is 10-9 ATS at home this year, but the immediate revenge factor swings the scales in favor of the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are just 2-4 ATS in their last six after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, while OKC is already 5-1 ATS this year in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Lay the points.

10* DEMOLITION

The set-up: I think this one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle from a situational stand point. WSU will be eager to atone for a poor 92-60 loss in Colorado on Thursday, while Utah will also be out to bounce back after a 69-53 loss at home to Washington. Utah has won nine straight in this series, including a 77-70 road victory last February 17th. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score here as well. As stated above, I think from a “situational” stand point that this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Note as well that WSU has already seen the total go “under” in three of its last four on the road and in ten of its last 15 off a road loss vs. a conference rival of more than ten points, while Utah has seen the total dip “under” in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* TOTAL OF MONTH

The set-up: Andrew Luck and the Colts have sure looked impressive over the last month, but I believe their story comes to and tonight. The Chiefs can’t play a lick of defense, but they haven’t had to with their dynamic offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, who set offensive records this year. With a week off to focus and game-plan though, I absolutely expect the Chiefs’ to also “step up” their game defensively as well. Indianapolis averaged 27.1 PPG, while allowing 21.5. The Chiefs averaged 35.3 PPG though and allowed 26.3. 

The pick: Mahomes though is the difference maker in my opinion. He finished with 5,097 passing yards with a sharp 50/12 TD/INT. Take it for what you will as well, but despite the Colts recent “up-tick” in play, they’re still only 14-17 ATS in their last 31 as an underdog, while Kansas City is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. In my estimation, everything points to the Colts running out gas this weekend. I’m laying they points.

10* play

The set-up: LeBron James got injured the Lakers would go on to predictably lost three straight. LA has looked better of late after winning two in a row, but I think that an immediate return to mediocrity is in the cards. Kyle Kuzma had a career-high 41 points the Lakers latest home win over Detroit. LA is averaging 112.2 PPG, while allowing 110.8. I think Kuzma though will struggle to duplicate his best performance ever as a pro, especially in this difficult road venue vs. the Jazz, who have “upped” their game on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing just 100.7 PPG over their last four. Utah comes in on top form having won three of its last four and I look for it take advantage of this favorable matchup.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing road records, while LA is just 2-6-1 ATS In its last nine following a SU win and only 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following an ATS victory. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* DEMOLITION

The set-up: Carolina didn’t put up much of a fight in a 3-1 setback on Tampa Bay last night, but the Hurricanes don’t have to travel far to get back home to take on the Sabres on Friday. I think the home side got caught looking ahead to this more favorable matchup and I expect it to make the most of it after last night’s sub-par showing. Despite the Sabres 5-1 win over the Devils at home last time out, they’re still just 9-12 on the road, averaging 2.62 PG and allowing 2.90. The Hurricanes are 11-11 at home, averaging 2.82 GPG and allowing 2.64. Carolina had Petr Mrazek in net last night, but Curtis McElhinney will get the nod here (he’s 10-6 with a 2.26 GAA on the year and 6-2 with a 2.01 GAA at home).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Sabres are just 4-6 (-1.6 units) already this year after a win by two goals or more. I think McElhinney will prove to be the difference maker here. Lay it.

10* GRINDER

The set-up: Wright State somehow managed to take both games vs. Northern Kentucky last year, but I think the Norse will bounce back this season and take the first matchup this time around. Wright State comes in off an 89-73 win over Oakland, while NKU destroyed Detroit 95-73 last time out. The Norse are balanced on both sides of the ball and are the much “deeper” team this season, note that six players would score in double figures in the win over the Titans. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wright State is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while NKU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after a victory in which it scored 95 points or more in. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* DEMOLITION

The set-up: Youngstown State will be gunning for an upset here after its 76-51 road win over Milwaukee in its latest contest. UIC enters off a tough 66-64 loss at home to IUPUI in its latest action. The Penguins play with revenge here as they’ve lost four straight in the series, including a 100-75 road loss last February 8th. Youngstown State averages 76.6 PPG and it allows 80.3. UIC averages only 75.6 PPG, while allowing 77.1. 

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Youngstown State is already 3-1 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after playing two consecutive road games as the underdog, while UIC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I believe that these teams are much more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Combine the situational and motivational factors working in favor of Youngstown State and an outright win isn’t out of the question here. That said, I’m grabbing the points.

10* play

The set-up: Boston was able to take the foot off the gas in its blowout win over the Pacers last night and I like it to carry that momentum over here against the Heat. Overall the C’s average 111.9 PPG and they allow 105.3. Miami is trending in the other direction. having now lost two straight. Overall the Heat are just 9-12 ATS at home. They average only 106.3 PPG, while allowing 105.7. 

The pick: Note as well that Miami is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest, while Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. the East. The Celtics have been getting healthier and their pieces are finally starting to play with chemistry. Look for that to continue here. Play on Boston.

10* play

The set-up: Neither team is going to be lacking for motivation today and I believe this competitive battle will produce a lot of points. Miami Florida clearly can’t be happy at 8-6 overall and 0-2 in ACC action. FSU is a much better 12-2, but the Seminoles enter this one off a poor conference opening 65-52 loss to Virginia on Saturday. With both teams looking to break back into the win column, I believe that from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring “shootout.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Hurricanes have seen the total go “over” the number in nine of their last 11 as a road underdog or pick and in six of eight already this season vs. teams with winning records, while FSU has seen the total go “over” in five of seven at home this season and in four of its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Colorado posted a 6-1 home win over New York in its latest action, while the Jets posted a 5-1 blowout victory over the Stars at home on Sunday. The home side has to be feeling confident here though, as the only other game this year between the clubs was a decisive 5-2 home win for the Jets. Overall the Avs average 3.4 GPG, while allowing 3.0. The Jets have been better on both sides of the ice though, averaging 3.4 goals and allowing 2.8. 

The pick: Note though that the Jets have been even better vs. division opponents this season, going 9-3 (+5 units). Note as well that Colorado is just 9-11 (-2.9 units) this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent and only 6-9 (-4.9 units) after a win by two goals or more. I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this one.

10* play

The set-up: The Pacers will be eager to return to form here after a 121-105 road loss to the Raptors on Sunday. The Cavs enter off another loss, a 133-98 setback at home to the Pelicans on Saturday. These teams though have split two games this year, with the Cavs earning the 92-91 road victory in the latest on December 18th. I think a similar hard-fought, lower-scoring battle is in store here as well. Previous to their latest loss the Pacers had won six straight. Overall Indiana averages just 107.7 PPG, which ranks 23rd, but the Pacers make up for it on the other end, allowing just 101.9 PPG. And that’s bad news for the offensively challenged Cavaliers, who are averaging 102 PPG, while allowing 111.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana has already seen the total go “under” the number in seven of eight this year after playing two consecutive road games, while Cleveland has seen the total go “under” in four of five already this season when playing with two days rest. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Villanova has won three straight and I think it carries that momentum over here into another solid victory at home against the surprising Red Storm, who have started the year 14-1, including conference wins over Marquette and Georgetown. The Red Storm have been playing over their heads, including the thrilling 97-94 OT win over Georgetown. Can anyone say “letdown” spot though? The defending champs will be out to send a message here in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Villanova is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 at home and 35-16 ATS in its last 51 vs. teams with winning records, while St. John’s is still just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Two of the best in the West go head-to-head on Monday night and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. The Nuggets come in off a 123-110 home win over Charlotte on Saturday, while the Rockets will be eager to get back to their recent winning ways after falling 110-101 in Portland this weekend. Denver plays with revenge here though after a 109-99 home loss back on November 13th to Houston. But the Nuggets come in on top form, having won five straight, they’re averaging 110.6 PPG, while allowing 105.2. Houston’s slow start is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. Houston’s been competitive at home, going 11-6-1 ATS, and it’s also seen the total go “over” the number in 11-6-1- in those contests. The Rockets average 110.3 PPG and they allow 109.

The-pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nuggets have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of 12 already this year after scoring 115 points or more in their previous contest, while Houston has seen the total go “over” in ten of 15 as a home favorite this season. With both teams pushing the pace, look for this one to fly “over” sooner, than later.

10* play

The set-up: I won with Alabama last year and I think the Tide are going to roll again this season as well. This is the fourth straight year these teams have faced each other in the big game. Last year the Tide won 24-6. Clemson does come in off a nice 30-3 win over the Irish last Saturday, but the step up in competition on both sides of the ball will prove to be too much again for the Tigers again in my estimation. Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence looked solid with 327 yards passing, three TD’s and no INT’s. The Tigers are no slouches defensively either, ranked fifth in allowing just 12.9 PPG. The Tide pulled away for a tougher than expected 45-34 win over Oklahoma last weekend. QB Tua Tagovailoa had 318 yards passing and four TD’s. The Tide dominate on both sides of the ball though, ranked second with 47.7 PPG and 12th in yards allowed per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, while Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after falling to cover the spread in two of its last three games. This has and likely always will be a “bad matchup” for Clemson. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Temple is 10-3 and Wichita State is just 7-6, but after back-to-back losses, I think the Shockers defend home court and bounce back this evening. Temple comes in susceptible after its three-game win streak was snapped in loss to UCF last time out. Temple averages 73.8 PPG and it allows 68.5. Wichita State is averaging 70.4 PPG and it’s allowing 70.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Temple is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine after playing two consecutive road games, while Wichita State is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 85 points or more in its previous contest. Play on Wichita State.

10* play

FREE FIRST HALF NFL PLAY: The set-up: Philadelphia clearly can’t sit back and wait for the game to come to it, it’ll have to be the attacker from the outset if it has any shot at pulling off the upset. With QB Nick Foles directing the show, I believe the Eagles lay everything on the line early and I will therefore recommend this first half wager. Philadelphia looked good in its 24-0 win over a depleted Redskins team last weekend. The Bears actually helped the Eagles get into the playoffs with their Week 17 victory over the Vikings. On paper, the Bears have the better offense and slightly better defense. Foles and the Eagles though bring experience and intangibles to the table which I think are being severely undervalued.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is a sharp 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive victories against the spread, while Chicago is 0-3 ATS in its last three off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Look for the Eagles to take the first half.

10* play.

The set-up: While Seattle won a lower-scoring 24-13 contest at home over the Cowboys back on September 23rd, I believe this time around we’ll see a much more wide open “shootout.” Both teams have made leaps and strides since the early weeks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for nearly 1,500 yards, which allowed Dak Prescott to find his game again. The late season acquisition of Amari Cooper was also a huge boost for the Dallas offense late in the year. Seattle veteran QB Russell Wilson put together arguably his best ever campaign and he also benefited greatly from a strong run game, which finished No. 1 in the league. From a situational stand point in my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight this year as an underdog, while Dallas as seen the total go “over” in five of eight at home and in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 45 points. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: The Hornets are only 7-8 ATS on the road this year, but they’re 9-6 SU. Charlotte enters off an embarrassing 122-84 home loss to the Mavericks in its latest action and it’ll be out to atone for that pathetic effort. And a date vs. the Nuggets is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track as the Hornets have won four of the last five in this series, including a 113-107 home victory in the first matchup this year back on December 7th. The Hornets average 112.9 PPG and they allow 111.4. Denver averages 110.3 PPG and it allows 105.1. 

The pick: But this is a matchup which Charlotte has excelled in and after its recent poor effort, I expect it to give a full four-quarter effort tonight. Additionally note that the Hornets are already 12-4 ATS this year after having lost two of their last three games. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: FSU is 12-1 and Virginia is 12-0. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but I definitely think that the Seminoles can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Seminoles enter off an 87-76 win over Winthrop, while Virginia smashed Marshall 100-64 at home in its most recent action. Overall FSU averages 82.3 PPG, while allowing 68.4. The Cavaliers average 74.7 PPG and they allow 51.4. 

The pick: The numbers though support our play on the visitors today, as note that FSU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games with a home win percentage of greater than .600, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Wild come in off a 4-3 road win over Toronto, while Ottawa enters off a 4-3 home loss to Vancouver. After suffering a five-game losing streak, the Wild have won two of their last three. Minnesota is only 9-10 on the road though, averaging 2.59 goals and allowing 2.89 in those contests. Wild’ goaltender Devan Dubnyk though owns a sharp 2.64 GAA lifetime against the Sens. Ottawa on the other hand is in a complete free-fall with six straight losses. The Senators are 11-11 at home, averaging 3.36 goals and allowing 3.18 in those contests. The Sens are expected to send out Anders Nilsson between the pipes and he’s 1-4 with a 3.23 GAA lifetime against Minnesota. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ottawa is a poor 10-25 in its last 35 vs. the Western Conference, while Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 in its last five in this series. This is a price which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Wild.

10* play

The set-up: The Jazz are the “better” team, but the Cavs are the “hungrier” team tonight. Utah enters off a 122-116 road loss in Toronto on Tuesday, while Cleveland comes in off a blowout loss at home to the Heat. Utah’s achilles heel forever has been its play on the road and that’s been no different this season either, going just 9-12-1 ATS away from friendly confines thus far. Overall the Jazz average 107.7 PPG and they allow 106.1. The Cavs average 102 PPG and they allow 111.4. Cleveland has lost seven straight though and clearly it’ll be risking life and limb to try and reverse that trend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is already just 3-5 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games, while Cleveland is 8-5 ATS this season following a SU home loss. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Nashville comes in off a 4-0 home win over Philadelphia, while Detroit enters off a 5-3 home loss to the Flames. After losing six straight, the Preds have won two in a row, thanks in part to a renewed urgency on the defensive end, winning 6-3 in Washington, before the shutout at home over the Flyers. Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne has a lifetime 2.58 GAA against the Wings. Detroit though comes in desperate after six straight losses. It’s just 8-14 at home, averaging 2.82 goals and allowing 3.00 in those contests. Wings’ net minder Jimmy Howard though has been sharp against Nashville throughout his career with a 2.38 lifetime GAA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Nashville has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of 16 already this season after scoring four goals or more in its previous outing, while Detroit has seen the total go “under” in 11 of its last 17 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Two teams which like to get out and push the pace collide in a big early Western Conference match-up on Thursday night and I think that points are going to be plentiful. It’s a rematch of last year’s West Conf. Finals. Houston most recently enters off a 113-101 home win over the Grizzlies, while the Warriors enter off a 132-109 road win over Phoenix. Golden State plays with revenge here after a listless 107-86 setback in Houston back on November 15th. But the Rockets come in on fire, having won five straight. Both teams have plenty to play for and each is now finally starting to “fire on all cylinders.” From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in five of six vs. the Pacific Division this year and in seven of 11 following a home victory, while Golden State has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more vs. an opponent. This one has “shootout” written all over it. Play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: The Dons come in at 12-2 and St. Mary’s is 9-6. The Gaels started slowly by losing their first four, but they’ve bounced back to go 9-6 to this point and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Tanner Krebs led the way in St. Mary’s most recent win with 20 points off six three-pointers. The Gaels come in averaging 113.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 99.7 points per 100 possessions. San Fran may be 12-2, but it comes in off a 73-71 road loss to UC Santa Barbara. San Fran is scoring 107.8 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 94.2 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win of 20 points or more, while San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Clearly the outright is possible, but I’m grabbing the points.

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Boston enters off a satisfying 4-2 win on New Years Day over the Blackhawks in the Winter Classic and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here against an exhausted Calgary team which fought from behind and bested the Red Wings in Detroit just last night. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt that this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary is just 2-6 in its last eight in Boston and only 3-10 in its last 13 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 14-3 in its last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Note that Bruins goaltender Jaroslav Halak is 8-1 with a 1.98 GAA at home as well. This line could/should easily be a lot larger in my estimation. Play on Boston.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams which like to push the pace first and think about defense second collide on Wednesday night, but I think the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “under.” Dallas looks to return to form after a 122-102 loss at Oklahoma City on Monday. Charlotte enters off a 125-100 home win over the hapless Magic. The Mavs average 110.6 PPG, and they allow 110.4. The Hornets average 113.7 PPG and they allow 111.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Dallas has interestingly seen the total go “under” the number in all four games it’s played vs. the Southwest Division this season and in eight of its last 12 following a blowout loss of more than 20 points, while Charlotte has seen the total dip “under” in three of four already this season after a blowout win by 15 points or more. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Two of the top teams in the nation collide and I think that points will be plentiful. The Pirates enter off a 76-74 home win over St. John’s, while the Musketeers will be eager to keep the momentum rolling after a 74-65 home win over DePaul. Seton Hall comes in at 10-3 and it plays with “double revenge” here after dropping both contests in the series last year. The Pirates average 75.5 PPG and they allow 69.6. Xavier though is 7-1 at home and it averages 75.4 PPG, while allowing 70.1. 

The pick: I’m expecting a wide open, faster paced game. Take it for what you will as well, but Seton Hall has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 14 as a road dog or pick, while Xavier has seen the total go “over” in 21 of its last 36 at home. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Two teams that are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the line collide in the Sugar Bowl in Atlanta on Tuesday night and I’m expecting a war until the final moments. Georgia comes into this one still hung over and miserable after its crushing defeat in the SEC Championship game to Alabama. This is a consolation prize for the Bulldogs, while Texas will be looking to make the most of this moment, having not been in a New Year’s Six bowl game since 2014. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the underdogs in my opinion (note that Texas head coach Tom Herman is 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog, with nine outright victories.) 

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Georgia is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a two weeks or more layoff and as a ten points or more favorite, while Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine after a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: UCF enters at 12-0 and while it may leave here with a blemish on its record, I expect the Golden Knights to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Despite losing starting QB McKenzie Milton to injury, UCF would still go on to post a two TD win over Memphis. LSU comes in off a deflating loss to Texas A&M in its latest outing. In fact, the Tigers would play through seven OT’s,but still come up short vs. the Aggies. Players could barely stand by the end of the game they were so exhausted. 

The pick: The Knights looked just fine with Darriel Mack under center in their win over Memphis, throwing for 348 yards and two TD’s. Take it for what you will as well, but the Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog, while LSU is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams with a ton of momentum collide in the Gator Bowl from Jacksonville Florida on Monday night and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. NC State enters on a three-game win streak over Louisville, UNC and ECU, while Texas A&M also posted three straight wins to end the year over Ole Miss, UAB and LSU. NC State will be leaning heavily on QB Ryan Finley here, and he has 3,789 passing yards along with 24 TD’s. The Aggies weakness on defense is against the pass, allowing 262.7 YPG. Clearly Finley will be given the “green light” to air it out from start to finish. The Aggies are also down several defenders, including safety Donovan Wilson. The Aggies feature a potent offensive attack as well, featuring dynamic back Trayveon Williams, who had 1,524 rushing yards and 15 major scores.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NC State has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine non-conference road games as an underdog in the 2.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: The Rangers come in with plenty of momentum here after a 4-3 win over Nashville last time out and I think New York carries it over. St. Louis on the other hand is out to atone for a 6-1 loss to Pittsburgh in its latest outing. Blues’ net minder Jake Allen is struggling through his worst campaign as a pro, as he’d let in four goals on 17 shots before getting pulled. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in five of its last six off a home win in which it scored four or more goals in, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine after allowing six or more goals in its previous outing, while scoring one or less of its own. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Missouri was 8-4 in regular season play, but just 4-4 in SEC action. Oklahoma State squeaked into the Bowls with a 6-6 regular season record, including going 3-6 in the Big 12. Overall the Tigers are averaging 36.9 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. Missouri QB Drew Lock finished with 3,125 passing yards and a 25:8 TD/INT. Oklahoma State took the foot off the gas in its final game after securing bowl eligibility in its second to last game of the season in an impressive 45-41 win over WVU. QB Taylor Cornelius had 3,642 passing yards and a 28:11 TD/INT.

The pick: The Cowboys’ offense is the difference maker for me in this one though. Oklahoma State averages just under 500 total yards per game and 38.4 points. Overall they’re allowing 32.4, but with extra time off to prepare, I definitely expect Oklahoma State to keep this one competitive. Take it for what you will as well, but OKS is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Missouri is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR

The set-up: Atlanta has been playing well of late, most recently it defeated the Hawks 111-108 on Saturday. Indiana enters off a very satisfying 125-88 home win over the Pistons and I think it’ll get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. This is a big time revenge game as well, as Indiana has taken seven straight in the series, including both this year and last week’s 129-121 Boxing Day victory. But Atlanta is now playing its best ball of the year, having won five of its last six. Indiana has won four straight, but note that it’s still a terrible 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win by ten points or more vs. a division rival.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 7-5 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Grab all those points!

10* play

The set-up: Stanford comes in on top form having won three straight. Pittsburgh comes in a bit deflated in my opinion though after falling to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Stanford’s final win of the year came over California. Pittsburgh relies on a strong run game and defense. Stanford does as well, but an injury to star RB Bryce Love shifted the focus of the offense this year to QB KJ Costello, who had 3,435 passing yards. 

The pick: The Cardinal closed strong and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Note that Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine bowl games. Pittsburgh had a ton of momentum, but the humbling loss to Clemson carries over (note that the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.) Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Neither team is doing very well this year. Montana state is 4-7, while Northern Arizona is just 2-9. But after beating Southern Utah 92-62 this past Saturday, I think Montana State will take a step back here. Overall Montana State averages 72.7 PPG, while allowing 81.9. Northern Arizona averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 81.1. Most recently the Lumberjacks fell 86-73 to Montana last weekend. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Montana State is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 after covering the spread in its previous game, while Northern Arizona is still 13-9 ATS in its last 22 at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after five or more consecutive losses. I think the “hungrier” teams finds a way to get the job done here. Play on Northern Arizona.

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting very little defense played between these hungry non-conference opponents. Philadelphia comes in having split its last eight games. Overall the 76ers are averaging 114.5 PPG, while allowing 111.6. Big man Joel Embiid leads the nightly charge with 26.5 points and 13.3 boards per game. Philadelphia comes in having won five of its last eight on the road. The Blazers have split their last ten and they’ll be eager to get back on track after a loss to the Warriors at home last night. Portland upset Golden State on its home floor on Thursday, so the visitors were out for revenge last night. Regardless, Portland is averaging 110.9 PPG and allowing 110.8 and it’s led by Damian Lillard with 26.7 points and 5.8 assists per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 22 as a favorite and in ten of 17 on the road, while Portland has seen the total go “over” in eight of 11 non-conference contests. This number low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: With a playoff spot up for grabs, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number sooner, rather than later. The Colts come in off a thrilling 28-27 come from behind home win over the Giants last Sunday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well. The Titans posted a 25-16 home win over the Giants last weekend. Overall the Colts average 26.8 PPG and they allow 21.2. The Titans average 19.5 PPG and they allow 18. In the first meeting this year though, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 297 passing yards and three TD’s in a 28 point win.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 after playing at home, while Tennessee has seen the total go “over” in five of its last six in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 28 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: The Browns are looking to play spoiler and they come in with plenty of momentum. Outright victory?! It’s not out of the question! In fact, Cleveland already upset the Ravens at home 12-9 in OT earlier in the year. Browns’ rookie QB Baker Mayfield had 284 passing yards and three TD’s vs. the Bengals last week. Cleveland’s defense dominated as well, giving up just 209 total yards. Note that Cleveland has in fact won five of six overall. The Ravens are the better team on paper, but I think they get pushed to the brink here after upset win over the Chargers in LA last weekend. 

The pick: The Ravens have struggled against the division as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC North. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home as well. The Browns on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in the last six after an ATS win. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Lipscomb comes in off a 91-66 win over Vermont last Saturday to improve to 9-3, but I think the Bison will struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue vs. the Power 5 opponent. Clemson comes in at 9-3 as well and having won three straight, most recently a 78-68 victory over South Carolina. Despite having failed to cover in five of their last six, I think the Tigers will take full advantage of this favorable match-up. Marcquise Reed is back in the line-up after missing three games and he had 20 points in the win over the Gamecocks. I think he’s a difference maker and I believe he’ll be a match-up issue for the Bison.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference home games on the heels of a three games or more unbeaten streak. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.

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The set-up: The Hornets were upset at home last night by the Mavs and I think they’ll be ripe for the picking here as well. The Rockets comes in off three straight victories, including over the Celtics most recently. Houston plays with revenge here as well after the Pelicans took the first game in the season series 131-112 in mid October. 

The pick: New Orleans is also just 1-5 already in the second game of the back-to-back scenario this season. Note that the Pelicans are allowing a whopping 124.2 points per game in the second game of the back to back this year. This one is going to be a blowout. Play on Houston.

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The set-up: The Knights enter off a 2-1 home win over the Avs, while the Kings come in off a 2-1 home win over the Coyotes. Las Vegas has predictably had its struggles this year after its unreal first season, but it’s still 21-19 and only three points out of first place in the Pacific. Knights’ net minder Marc-Andre Fleury is so far 21-14 with a 2.60 GAA this year. LA has won four straight, but I think it’ll come crashing back down to Earth here. Still last in the Pacific, goaltender Jon Quick is 5-10 with a 2.92 GAA this year for the Kings.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 14-3 (+11.3 units) in its last 17 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent (lost to LA at home earlier in the year), while the Kings are a poor 38-55 (-20.3 units) the last two seasons vs. teams with winning records. Great price on the Knights.

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The set-up: The Irish are 12-0 and the Tigers are 13-0. This is the Cotton Bowl, but the winner of this will move on to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the National Championship Game. Notre Dame had to hold on for dear life in its regular season finale vs. USC, while Clemson easily steamrolled Pittsburgh in its ACC Championship title. Both teams feature elite defenses and I believe they’ll “steal the show” in this one. 

The pick: Each team will be trying to establish its run game throughout while on offense. And take it row what you will, but Notre Dame has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten after allowing 280 or more passing yards in its previous game and in four of its last five neutral site games, while Clemson has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last nine neutral site affairs on a three weeks or more lay off. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

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The set-up: After losing to Duke, Kentucky has won nine of its last ten. The Wildcats enter off a win over UNC last weekend, but I think they’ll finally have a letdown here. Louisville looks to defend home court and it comes in with plenty of momentum itself with three straight victories. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well as the Wildcats have won five of the past six in the series. These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but after the extended stretch of great play, including the win over the Tar Heels last weekend, I definitely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot finally for Kentucky.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Kentucky is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Louisville is already 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year. I’m banking on home floor being the difference. Play on Louisville.

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The set-up: I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. The Cavs come in with zero momentum after losing three of their last four, including to Virginia Tech most recently. The Gamecocks upset the Wolverines in last year’s Outback Bowl and they won their final game of the year over Akron (28-3.) “You get a bunch of bowl gear, and if you lose the game, you damn sure don’t want to wear any of it,” SC coach Will Muschamp said recently. “I haven’t put anything on from the Birmingham Bowl, I’ll tell you that. …When you win the bowl game, it just makes everybody feel better about what’s going on, where the program is headed. …Our guys understand that coming off a win gives you a little more confidence in your program about where you are. But the 2018 team will close its book in Charlotte.” Virginia opened at 6-2, but the Cavs have stumbled unbelievably down the stretch and I think that carries over here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. Virginia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing on three or more weeks rest on a neutral field. Lay the points.

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The set-up: I’m expecting a wide open shootout in this one. OKC will be eager to get back on track after a 113-109 road loss in Houston on X-Mas Day. Phoenix on the other hand will be looking to keep the momentum roling after its 122-120 OT win over Orlando on Wednesday. The Suns play with revenge today as well after a 110-100 loss to the Thunder here on November 17th. The Thunder average 111.9 PPG and they allow 105.8. The Suns average 105.1 PPG and they allow 113.6. The Suns have been getting healthier and they’ve been playing lot better of late and there’s no reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of 20 vs. teams with losing records already this season, while Phoenix has seen the total go “over” in 15 of its last 21 off an upset win as a road dog. This number is low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: Austin Peay comes in “under the radar” here. The Governors have won six straight and they’re averaging 78.1 PPG, while allowing 75.4. Austin Peay is lead by Terry Taylor who is averaging 17.8 points and 8.3 boards per game. Arkansas has won six of eight, but it’s not too hard to imagine the home side looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Overall Arkansas is averaging 82.4 PPG and allowing 70.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Austin Peay is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while the Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. As stated off the top, I think the Governors come in “under the radar” and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do indeed feel that the stage is se for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

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The set-up: In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra time, I believe the prudent move is to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals. Ottawa enters off a 4-0 home loss to Washington, while the Isles return home after a 3-1 road win over the Stars. Overall the Sens average 3.19 GPG and they allow 3.89. Note that Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson has a very respectable 2.52 lifetime GAA vs. the Isles in 18 match ups. The Isles are averaging 2.83 GPG and they’re allowing 2.71. NY net minder Tomas Greiss is 3-1 with a 3.48 GAA lifetime vs. Ottawa.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ottawa is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four when playing with three or more days rest, while New York is already 0-3 (-3.1 units) this season in the same position. Lay the price, grab the 1.5 goals.

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The set-up: No one expected the Orange to finish 9-3 overall and go 5-1 in their last six, but now they’ll look to continue to defy the odds and carry that momentum over into the Camping World Bowl. WVU comes in off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma and it’ll be without starting QB Will Grier, who will skip to focus on the draft. That just means that it’s “next man up” for the Mountaineers. And that next man is Jack Allison, who now has a golden opportunity to cement his role next year. WVU is loaded with other offensive weapons though and the Mountaineers will be hungry to finish up strong as well. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Syracuse has seen the total go “over” the number in five of seven as a favorite already this year, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of six already this season when the total is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: Utah has won three of four, while Philadelphia saw a two-game win steak end in a OT loss at Boston on X-Mas Day. Philadelphia looks to bounce back here in this difficult venue: “I look forward to watching us evolve,” 76ers’ head coach Brett Brown assessed last night. “We will learn from this. We leave disappointed, but I think there’s lots you’re going to point to and say it was a hell of a job, and we lost to a team that’s very tough…. The fact that the starting five for the large majority of the game was excellent. I though the spirit was great, the energy was great, but we need to continue to grow our bench, and to work with our starters to finish out the game.” Maintaining focus for the Jazz vs. the Eastern Conference opponent is a concern though in my opinion. 

The pick: Because take it for what you will, but the Jazz are still a poor 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a victory, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle.

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The set-up: The Avs come out of the X-Mas break hungry after losing six of their last eight games. The Knights will be equally as hungry here as well after a lacklustre first half and back-to-back losses of their own. Both teams remain in the playoff picture, but clearly the need for wins in the second half the season becomes paramount. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up nicely for more of a shootout than a goaltenders battle in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well by the Avs have seen the total go “over” the number in nine of their last 14 when playing with three or more days rest, while the Knights have seen the total go “over” in its last six home games when the total is set at 6 or higher. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: I think this one will sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. This is the Texas Bowl from NRG Stadium in Houston. Vandy became eligible by winning its final two games of the year over Ole Miss and Tennessee. Baylor’s also looking to cap a 6-6 season a high note after it broke a two-game skid with a bowl eligibility victory over Texas Tech back on November 24th. On offense, Vanderbilt will be leaning on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who posted 1,001 rushing yards and ten TD’s on 144 carries this season. Baylor is susceptible against the run as well, allowing 172.8 rushing yards per game. Vandy also has a steady presence under center in Kyle Shurmur, who finished with 2,844 yards and 23 passing TD’s. After only one victory last season, clearly the Bears are very happy to be back bowling this year. Baylor’ QB Charlie Brewer finished with 2,635 passing yards and and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four when playing with two weeks rest, while Baylor has seen the total go “over” in its last two non-conference games. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: The Flames are atop the Pacific Division as they come out of the X-Mas break, despite a three-game losing streak. Winnipeg leads the Central and the overall Western Conference standings with 50 points. Calgary averages 3.43 GPG and it’s allowing 2.73. Calgary’s middle of the road on both the power play and penalty kill though. Winnipeg averages 3.53 GPG and it allows only 2.78. Jets’ goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is 3-1-0 with a 2.17 GAA lifetime vs. the Flames.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are 8-0 in their last eight when playing on three or more days rest, while Calgary is just 1-5 in its last six in the same position. The Jets are 24-10-2 at home and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done on Thursday night as well.

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The set-up: The 5-9 UMKC Kangaroos are at Creighton to take on the 8-4 Blue Jays and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The Kangaroos went into the X-Mas break with an impressive 95-59 win over Elon on Saturday, going 16 of 26 from behind the arc. The defensive performance by UMKC was likely even more impressive though. The Blue Jays destroyed sub-division Coe College 110-60 in their latest action. Creighton though faces a much more difficult defensive task today.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kangaroos have seen the total go “under” the number in seven of their last nine road games after a victory in which they scored 95 points or more in, while the Blue Jays have seen the total go “under” in eight of their last 11 after scoring 105 points or more in a 20 points or more blowout victory in their previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.” 

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The set-up: In what is expected to be a very low-scoring defensive battle, I like the Horned Frogs to pull away down the stretch for the victory. TCU was 3-5, but it closed the season strong by winning three of its final four, including a 31-24 home win over OK State in its regular season finale to make it to 6-6. I think the Frogs carry that momentum over here. Cal on the other hand maybe peaked too early, as it had won four of five before a loss to Stanford in its finale (a disastrous 10-6 setback.) Cal averages 22.8 PPG and it allows 21.2. TCU average 24.7 PPG and it allows 24.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a win in which it scored 30 points or more and following a two weeks or more break. Play on the Horned Frogs.

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The set-up: Simply put, I don’t think that home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Nets once again come in under the radar here after winning eight of their last nine. The Hornets look poised for another letdown here after their two-game win streak was broke in a 119-103 loss in Boston last time out. Overall the Hornets average 110.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 108.2 per 100 possessions. The Nets average 109.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 110.2 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will thought, but Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Brooklyn is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 following a SU loss of ten or more points. Kemba Walker is doing a hell of a job to keep the Hornets relevant, but I think he’ll stumble in this now difficult road venue. Play on the Nets.

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The set-up: This is a consolation game in the Diamond Head Classic and I like the Rhode Island Rams to put the foot on the gas and run the home side Warriors off the floor once its all said and done. Hawaii enters off a 70-62 win over Colorado in the consolation bracket Sunday, while the Rams beat Charlotte 75-61 in their consolation game on Sunday. The Rams feature the more senior players and more talented line-up though and I think this depth will be the difference in the outcome of this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Hawaii is a disappointing 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home underdog or pick. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

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The set-up: I got down on this one early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I think the high-powered Bucks are going to lay the hammer down from start to finish. The Bucks comes in off a 94-87 road loss in Miami, a setback which snapped a four-game win streak. Overall Milwaukee averages 116.9 PPG and it allows 108.5. The Knicks come in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost four straight, most recently a listless setback at home to the Hawks. The Knicks average 108.6 PPG and they allow 115.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 0-5 ATS in its last five at home, while Milwaukee is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Two teams playing out their respective seasons collide on Monday night. If these clubs could have a “do over,” they’d clearly both jump on it. Regardless, I think the Broncos will do just enough to gut out the win and cover. The Raiders have nothing to play for here and another loss will only help them in the draft next year. Raiders’ hired Jon Gruden on the off-season last year and his first season has been a disaster. Broncos’ head coach Vance Joseph is expected to be fired after his Week 17 matchup with the Chargers, but he’s not going down without a fight: “Absolutely. We want to win,” Joseph said on Monday. “These next two games are important for us to finish the right way. That part is very important to me. It’s about winning. That’s what it’s about. It’s not about losing, it’s about winning. That’s very important to our football team and our coaches.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is already 2-0 ATS this year after a loss by 3 points or less, while Oakland is a terrible 4-8 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.

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The set-up: From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt that this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout. The Chiefs come in off a tough 29-28 home loss to the Chargers on Thursday. The Chiefs remain the highest scoring team in the league, but they’re in the bottom third defensively. KC needs to win this game to keep pace for the top spot in the AFC. The Hawks also come in off a tough 26-23 OT loss in San Francisco last weekend. Both teams feature a couple of the best QB’s in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Each will be given the green light here today obviously. As stated off the top, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in six of seven on the road already this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. The Isles enter off a 4-2 loss in Vegas, while Dallas fell to the lowly Blackhawks in their last game. Dallas though posted a 6-2 road win over the Isles in New York last month and I look for it to post a similar beatdown here as well. This is the end of a tough Western swing for the Isles and I think they’ll come out flat. Overall New York averages 2.8 GPG and it allows 2.8 GPG as well. Dallas is 11-4-1 at home and it averages 2.7 GPG, while allowing 2.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 5-1 in its last six at home, while New York is just 1-4 in its last five when playing on two days rest. I like Dallas to bounce back on home ice. Lay the price.

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The set-up: The Pelicans will be eager to get back into the winners circle after a 112-104 road loss to the Lakers on Friday. The Kings enter off a very satisfying 102-99 home win over the Grizzlies and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. New Orleans has dominated this series of late, including a 149-129 home victory in the first meeting this year on October 19th. Overall the Pelicans average 116.3 PPG and they allow 115.2. Sacramento is averaging 114.9 PPG and it’s allowing 116.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a road favorite of six points or less. I’m banking on the Pelicans dominance of this series continuing. Play on New Orleans.

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Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: The Dons are 11-1 and the Cardinal are just 6-4 (SU), but I think the value is on the undervalued underdog in this one. The Cardinal have played a difficult non-conference schedule to this point, with three of its setbacks vs. AP Top 25 teams. Stanford though comes in playing its best ball of the young season with two straight wins, most recently a 78-73 defeat of San Jose State. The Dons have beaten Harvard and Cal, but beyond that its opposition has been much weaker to this point. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite in the 7 to 12.5 points range. while Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in is last six as a road underdog in the 7 to 12.5 points range and 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Washington is still in the playoff hunt after holding on for a win against the Jaguars in Week 15, but the Redskins’ chances are still slim, especially considering the significant injuries. The Titans have won three straight over the Jets, Jags and Giants and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here as well. Not only are the Skins down to their third string QB, but CB Joshua Holsey was lost for the season in last week’s narrow victory. Tennessee on the other hand is getting steady play from QB Marcus Mariota, while getting superb play from RB Derrick Henry. The Titans though are now No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense after allowing just one TD over their past 12 quarters of play.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after allowing 14 points or less in its last game, while Tennessee is 4-2 ATS at home this year and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout.

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The set-up: Mike Norvell is looking to lead the 8-5 Memphis Tigers to their first bowl win since 2014. Norvell has taken his team to two other bowl games, but he’s come up short each time. Wake Forest finished 6-6 and it could just be happy to be here after winning both the Military Bowl in 2016 and the Belk Bowl last year. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key offensive players. Wake Forest is likely without the services of Greg Dortch, who led the ACC with 1,750 all purpose yards, but who suffered a finger injury in the Deacons’ 59-7 rout of Duke in their finale (if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% health). Memphis averages 43.6 PPG, but it’ll be without star RB Darrell Henderson, who will move onto the NFL now. Regardless, the Tigers are still loaded with talent and I have a hard time seeing the Deacons keeping pace down the stretch.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Wake Forest is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams above the .500 mark. Lay the points and expect a rout.

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The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies are in a “free fall” right now and I think the hungry home side takes advantage. The Grizz have lost four straight and six of their last seven. The Kings enter off back-to-back losses as well, over the Wolves and Thunder, so they won’t be lacking any motivation here either. Memphis has been dealing with injury issues again to guard Mike Conley, as well as to forward Omri Casspi. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Western Conference, while the Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when playing on one days rest and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with losing road records. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the Kings.

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The set-up: Oregon has only played one true road game this year and it was a 65-61 loss to Houston on December 1st. And that came on the heels of a shocking 89-84 home loss to Texas Southern. Bears fans can empathize. Baylor enters off an upset 59-58 home loss to Stephen F. Austin. Overall Baylor has been the better defensive team this year and I think that’ll be the main difference in the outcome of this one (note that the Bears are giving up just 63.4 PPG overall and they’ve actually held six of their ten opponents to 61 points or fewer.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Oregon is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU win. Lay the points, expect a rout.

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The set-up: Both teams return to bowl action after missing last year. Both teams have a freshman QB under center today. Both were forced into the starters role in the middle of the campaign for different reasons. WMU is averaging 33.2 PPG, while allowing 33.2. Kaleb Eleby helped WMU end a three-gam losing streak with a 28-21 win over NIU in the regular season finale. Eleby finished with 285 passing yards. BYU is averaging only 25.4 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end, allowing just 21.7. Zach Wilson finished with 1,261 yards passing with a 10/6 TD:INT over six starts for the Cougars. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while WMU is 8-4 ATS in is last 12 following a home win. This one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points.

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The set-up: These two teams may not play in the same conference, but each will be hungry for a victory here. Houston started off the season poorly, but it’s since shown signs of its former glory, with Chris Paul and James Harden playing much better. Harden leads Houston with 31.5 PPG, while Paul adds 15.8 points, 8.2 assists and 2.7 steals per game.) Miami enters with a ton of momentum as well after going 4-2 on its most recent road trip. Hassan Whiteside has played much better this season, averaging 13.4 points, 13.3 boards and 2.88 blocks per game.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last nine vs. teams with losing records, while Miami has seen the total go “over” in five of its last seven against teams with winning records. This number is low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: South Florida opened the season 7-0, but it then lost five straight to finish 7-5. With a chance to erase the disappointing second half with a third straight bowl victory, I think the Bulls will pull off the minor upset today. Marshall last played on December 1st, a 41-20 loss to the Hokies which snapped a three-game win streak. A three week layoff isn’t going to help the Herds’ chemistry. USF will be leaning heavily on the RB duo of Jordan Cronkrite and Johnny Ford, shoe combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite and already 0-2 ATS this year when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a loss of 17 points or more. Grab the points.

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