These two SEC programs are in very different places right now. Auburn just made a coaching change and certainly seems to be reinvigorated by interim boss Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. Texas A&M was supposed to contend for a national title this year. They are now 3-6 and look to be playing out the string.

Now Auburn shares that same 3-6 record. But they showed me something by coming back from an early three touchdown deficit to force overtime last Saturday in Starkville. Keep in mind Williams was on a short week and wasn’t even named coach until Monday. It’s amazing his team got to overtime against a team like Mississippi State.

The Tigers can put up points. They’ve averaged more than 31 the L3 games. Texas A&M can’t do anything offensively. They’ve been better recently, but have used three different quarterbacks and have yet to score more than 28 points in any game.

The A&M roster is severely depleted right now due to injuries and suspensions. This is the program’s first five-game losing streak since 1980. I am just not sure how much they care. Auburn is also on a five-game slide, but Williams seems to have them reinvigorated and being at home this week, it’s looking like “War Eagle.”

Auburn has covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been home chalk of 3.5 points or less. 10*

The Penguins have won their last two games after a lengthy losing streak, but are on the wrong end a back to back, a situation they have not thrived in recently and in the long term.  They are also struggling on the road to date in the season.  Jarry likely starts, and after a very good start to the season, has not shown well lately, with an average save % of well under .900 . DeSmith played in both recent victories.

Underdogs and home teams have the advantage in recent meetings between these two teams, and the Canadiens are both on Saturday.  Although they can be up and down, they have a better record than the Penguins, and have also won 2 straight.  They are considerably better on defense and on the PK  this year.  Allen, the likely starter on Saturday has a .907 save %, and was very strong against the Sabres in his last game.

The Penguins are a surprisingly high road favorite on Saturday, and I am not sure that that line is justified.  Take  the underdog Habs to come through at home.

Can’t say that either fighter has been all that successful as of late, but I like Choi to win this bout on the UFC 281 prelims.

It was just over a year ago that Choi was on a three-fight win streak and seemed to be ascending in the Featherweight Division. Losses to Alex Caceres and Joshua Culibao have halted the momentum, but Choi looks to get back on track here against Trizano, who has also dropped two in a row.

Trizano did win The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018, but since then has never been able to get on a run like Choi did. He was knocked out by Lucas Almeida in June and now hopes to avoid a fourth loss in his last five fights.

Choi is the harder hitter here and should be able to avoid takedowns. His takedown defense has improved the last couple of years. He will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday. 

Most concerning of all with Trizano is that he missed weight for this fight (by 1.6 pounds), which certainly calls durability into question. That’s why I’m stepping in here. 10*

Ok. So UAB didn’t work out last week. But now QB Dylan Hopkins is set to return and I love the Blazers in this spot hosting North Texas.

With North Texas on a 6-0 ATS win streak, they have become overvalued. Conversely, UAB is on a 0-4 ATS losing skid and is approaching peak value. Before last week’s 2OT loss to UTSA, the Blazers were 11-0 ATS at home off a loss.

UAB had the 553-494 edge in total yards vs. UTSA. The return of Hopkins just makes the offense even more dynamic. 

With LSU on deck, UAB MUST win this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas already has its six wins, most of them coming against bad teams.

Key here will be UAB’s ability to run the ball. On the road, North Texas is giving up 214 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. 10*

Wolves have scored just 8 goals in 14 Premier League matches this season. That’s not just the fewest of any EPL side, it’s downright putrid.

Now they are set to face top of the table Arsenal, who have conceded all of 11 times this season. That’s tied for the best defensive record in the league. 

Wolves have been a bit stingy themselves on the back end going back to last season and that should serve them well in this fixture. It also helps that Arsenal’s road xG is way down from what they average at Emirates Stadium.

My prediction here is that Arsenal gets 1, maybe 2 goals at most. Wolves are likely not to score at all and thus Under 2.5 is a solid play in the final match on Saturday’s EPL slate. 

Coming off a giant win over Clemson, this looks to be a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame, who is back in the CFP Top 25. While the Fighting Irish are 9-1 SU the L10 games vs. Navy, they are just 5-5 ATS. 

A service academy getting this many points is typically an attractive option as they will look to control the clock and thus it’s difficult for the favorite to build any kind of margin. The numbers bear this out as Army, Navy & Air Force are a combined 40-22-2 ATS when getting 14 or more points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the total for this game is only 42. So getting more than two touchdowns feels like a real nice luxury to have. 

Yes, the Irish did just beat Clemson by three touchdowns. But as a double digit favorite, Marcus Freeman’s team is 0-4 ATS with outright losses to both Marshall and Stanford. They also failed to cover against UNLV and Cal.

By a variety of metrics, Navy’s defense is pretty strong against the run. Those metrics include yards per rush, line yards and stuff rate. Conversely, ND’s defense is a lot weaker against the run than the pass. We know what Navy will look to do on offense here. 

Notre Dame will almost certainly win this game. But look for it to be closer than the experts think. 10* 

The Stars, winners of 3 of 4 games, are back home and facing a struggling 3-12 Sharks team.  The offense has been clicking; Dallas averaged 6 goals-for a game in those three wins before a poor performance against a tough Jets team at the tail end of the road trip.  The Sharks have had no recent luck (0-6) against the Stars in Dallas and are just 2-4 on the road this season.  San Jose has scored over three goals a game in their last 6 appearances, an improvement over the early season.  The problem is that they have allowed well over 4 goals a game, resulting in 5 straight losses. They are on the tail end of a back-to-back tonight.  We've seen a steady diet of overs from the Sharks, and while the offense has improved, managing to keep the Sharks in games lately, the defense has not.  The Sharks face a very potent Stars offense and power play tonight.  The suggested total is about average; too low for this match up.  Jump on the over in this game.

East Carolina will come into historic Nippert Stadium (where Cincinnati has won 31 straight) on a three-game win streak and off a bye. Last time out they snapped a four-game Friday night losing streak with a 27-24 upset of BYU. It was the Pirates’ second straight win as a dog, having previously upended UCF 34-13 as a six-point home dog. 

Now ECU looks for its first win at Cincy since 2001. They’ve lost 10 of 11 overall to the Bearcats including four straight. It was a 35-13 final last year in Greenville. But that was of course to a Cincinnati team that went on to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff.

This year has seen the Bearcats have real problems covering the spread. They are just 1-5-1 ATS the last seven games after failing to cover Saturday vs. Navy. They came in as 18.5-point favorites but won just 20-10. 

The Bearcats’ three games prior to that were all decided by four points or less. One of those saw them favored by 27 at home vs. a terrible South Florida team. Due to being one of the most penalized teams in the country, it’s been very difficult for Cincy to win by any kind of margin this year.

At this point of the season, I simply believe that East Carolina is the better football team here. They are certainly more than capable of ending Cincy’s long home win streak. QB Holton Ahlers has completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts for 2,632 yards. 

Denver and Boston collide Friday night on NBA TV and both squads are coming off high-scoring victories Wednesday night. Denver won 122-119 in Indiana while Boston prevailed 128-112 here at home over Detroit. 

Because of those final scores, tonight’s O/U opened quite high. It’s already been bet down, but I’m still liking the Under here. 

Boston has been lighting up some bad teams of late. Chicago, New York and Detroit were three of the victims in the current four-game win streak. But when the Celtics faced Memphis on Monday, they finished the game with just 109 points. 

Denver, also on a four-game winning run, has also been running through bad teams. They’ve faced Oklahoma City, San Antonio twice and then of course Indiana.

In a more high-profile encounter, expect more defense from both teams. The Under has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these teams and the last four here in Beantown. 10*

Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.

There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.

On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.

Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. 

Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10*

It could be very much a run-centric game when the Falcons meet the Panthers on Thursday.  The Falcons run more than just about anyone, and now have Patterson back, plus an up-and-comer in Allgeier, plus Huntley, and not to mention Mariota. Rain and wind are in the forecast, and the Panthers have a poor 28th rated rush defense.
The Panthers moved the ball effectively the last time they faced the Falcons, and really, the Falcons' pass defense can make any QB look good, even PJ Walker. Walker may have succeeded in the Falcons game, but his overall stats are not good, and he did nothing before being pulled in week 9.  One thing about Mariota is he doesn't turn the ball over much.  He will face more pressure than Walker; the Falcons REALLY don't pressure quarterbacks with any success.
With all of the turmoil around the Panthers at the moment, it is bound to show up on the field.  There are also too many areas where the Panthers have no ability;  they are last in the league in third down conversions, possession time, pass completion rate, and 31st in passer rating. The Falcons' defense allows a ton of yards, and as noted, struggle against the pass, but last week's game showed some improvement in both areas. If it comes down to field goals, which is not unlikely, Atlanta has a solid edge.  The Falcons have the opportunity to make it back to .500 again.  It may not be pretty considering the weather conditions, but I believe the Falcons have it in them to win and cover on Thursday.

While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.

This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.

Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team? 

The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. 

But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10*

Philadelphia comes into this game at just 5-6 on the season, but they did just hold Phoenix to 88 points in a win Monday night. I had the Under in that game and that’s the play again here as the 76ers travel to Atlanta to face the 7-4 Hawks.

Now the Hawks’ game last night was rather high scoring as they fell 125-119 to the Jazz. They came in sporting the league’s top three-point FG% defense (32.5%) but sat back and watched Utah make 17 of 39. I don’t think that will be the case again here, however. 

I say that knowing full well that the 76ers are shooting 39.2% from three this season. But remember that James Harden is now out for the next month. Even with Joel Embiid back, the team scored only 100 points Monday. They’ve been playing at a much slower pace recently as well.

The 76ers are elite defensively though, at least with Embiid on the floor. The loss of Harden certainly doesn’t hurt at that end of the floor. 

I just think this number is too high. Ten of the last 13 meetings between the teams have stayed Under including seven straight. 8*

It has been a disappointing season for Louisiana, who was 13-1 in 2021. It’s not like a dropoff wasn’t expected. Billy Napier hightailed it for Florida and they had to replace their QB and four starters along the offensive line. But a 4-5 SU record through nine games is certainly NOT what the Ragin Cajuns were expecting.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has already exceeded last year’s win total (3) and now has its eyes on bowl eligibility for first year head coach Clay Helton. There has been a radical transformation on offense with Helton jettisoning the triple option for an “Air Raid” and the result has been 36.2 points/game. 

Both teams are coming off losses, though Louisiana is in worse shape having dropped five of seven overall. Georgia Southern looked to have South Alabama beat (were up 21-7 in the first quarter) but gave up two touchdowns in the fourth to lose 38-31. They only trailed for the final 5:50 of the game. 

Louisiana also fell apart late in last week’s loss, getting outscored 16-0 by Troy in the fourth quarter to lose 23-17.

So we’ve got two teams off disappointing losses, but Georgia Southern is clearly more enthusiastic about where it’s at right now. I’m taking the points here as I think the Louisiana defense is going to struggle at slowing down the Eagles’ offense. Except for one game vs. Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns have not gone over 24 points since September. Take the points. 10*

The Flames started out strongly this season but have now lost 6 straight.  They are on the road against a Bruins team that has only lost 2 games this season, and is top of the heap in the Atlantic Division. Thursday's starting goalie Ullmark is a sparkling 9-1, .932 save %, outplaying a disappointing Markstrom, who is allowing nearly three goals a game and with a sub-.900 save %.  The Flames are not the powerhouse of last year.  Their top line has been completely revamped and is not clicking.  They have a barely average offense, and a sub-par defense. The Bruins by comparison are best in goals scored (4.1 per game), third in defense (2.4 goals allowed), and with a huge edge in special teams.  There are even sightings of a healthy McAvoy.
There is nothing to suggest a quick turnaround for Calgary.  Unlike last year, they have not been successful on the road to date, and the Bruins are hardly generous on home ice.  This one should be all Bruins and is cheap at the price.

Phoenix and Minnesota met on November 1st. That game stayed Under the total, ending up 116-107. We’ve got a slightly lower number for the rematch. But again, the Under is the way to go.

Starting with Minnesota, the last four Suns’ games have all stayed Under. I had the Under when they lost 100-88 at Philadelphia on Monday.

The Suns are playing great defense. They rank third in points allowed. They are also bottom four in pace. So they are playing slow as well. Great defense + playing slow = a solid combo to cash Unders.

Minnesota’s starting five has really struggled when on the court together. The Under is 8-3 in all Timberwolves games. 

Injuries are piling up for Phoenix: Cameron Johnson is out while Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton are both questionable after leaving Monday’s game. Take the Under.

On Saturday Seton Hall will face St. Peters, which is where head coach Shaheen Holloway previously served. But first they’ll play Monmouth, who was also in the MAAC - until this year. 

The Hawks have moved to the Colonial for 2022-23. They make the transition to a new conference having lost all five starters from last season’s team. No transfers were brought in to soften the blow. There are some recruits. But expect a slow start to the season from Monmouth. 

Monmouth is 19-8 Under its last 27 road games.

Seton Hall is 28-12 the last 40 times it has been favored.

Seton Hall also likes to play slow, which lends itself to the Under. The Pirates were also a great defensive team last season, ranking Top 25 nationally in efficiency. 10*

The Capitals are  home against the faltering Penguins, but haven't exactly been burning up the score sheets either, scoring less than 2 goals a game and winning just twice in their last 7 games. After an embarrassing loss to the Coyotes, they rallied vs the Oilers on Monday.  Kuemper, likely in net against the Penguins, has been steady lately other than a painful third period in the loss vs Phoenix.
The Penguins have lost 7 straight, and the biggest issue has been goals against.  They have the 25th ranked defense and unfortunately the PK is even worse.  Goaltender Jarry started the season well, but has struggled of late.  Their road record is poor, winning just once in six games.
The Capitals  are a surprise underdog on Wednesday, and normally I'd jump on this opportunity, however the Capitals have 6 key players out to injury.  The Penguins have had a few extra days off to regroup, and the Capitals are just too depleted against a better rested and no doubt motivated Pittsburgh team. Look for the Penguins to steal this one one with a rare road victory. 9*!

Buffalo had a five game win streak (SU and ATS) snapped last week in Athens as they fell to Ohio 45-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. While it was a nice run, the Bulls are a team that has had some good luck go their way, whether you’re opposing quarterbacks being out or turnovers. 

Central Michigan picked up a much needed win last week, beating Northern Illinois 35-22 as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas still have a chance to go bowling, but that would require winning out. They must get better at protecting the football though. Each of the last two games have seen CMU turn it over four times.

I believe the home team will be able to control the trenches in this game. RB Lew Nicholls III returned last week but it was actually backup QB Jase Bauer that led the way with 109 yards rushing. On the defensive side, CMU has been one of the best teams at stopping the run. Buffalo’s defense is 89th nationally in yards allowed.

Not only did Central Michigan’s offensive line pave the way for 245 rushing yards last week against Northern Illinois, but they also did not give up a single sack. 

CMU is 5-0 ATS the last five times it has been off a game with 200-plus yards rushing. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS off its previous nine SU losses. 10* 

Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.

Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight. 

Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo.

The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10*

The last two games for Toledo have seen wild comebacks, one go their way and one not go their way. Three Saturdays ago, they were up 27-10 on Buffalo heading into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing that game 34-27 due to six turnovers. The following week, with a backup QB, they came from behind to defeat Eastern Michigan 27-24. 

There is uncertainty over who is going to be the starting QB for the Rockets tonight. Dequan Finn, who got injured at the end of the Buffalo game and is in the running for MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is questionable. Backup Tucker Gleason threw three touchdowns last week vs. EMU. 

Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Toledo is clearly capable of putting points on the board. But tonight they run into a Ball State defense that has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Cardinals picked up a huge 27-20 win last Tuesday at Kent State as seven-point underdogs. That sets this game up as likely to decide who represents the MAC West in the Conference Championship.

Ball State is 3-2 in conference play, one game behind Toledo, who is rightly considered the class of the conference. But I think this spread is too high given the uncertainty at QB. Even if Finn does return, there has to be some concern over how effective he can be. 

The area where I expect Ball State to be effective on offense is running the ball. If you remove a game vs. Central Michigan, this Toledo defense has poor numbers against the run. Four opponents have run for 200+ yards on them, including the likes of UMass and San Diego State. The Cardinals are also much better than the Rockets when it comes to not turning the football over. You’re going to want to take the points in this edition of Tuesday night MAC-tion. 9* 

This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. 

The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back.

There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State.  

After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. 

Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10*

These teams just met Sunday and the Raptors came out on top 113-104. That was in Toronto though and Fred VanVleet was a monster, going for 30 points and 11 assists. 

Zach LaVine sat out yesterday for Chicago as his usage is being managed due to offseason knee surgery. The expectation is that he’ll play tonight. Also, you’ve got to expect more from DeMar DeRozan than what he gave the Bulls Sunday. Yes, DeRozan shot 7 for 9, but that was a season-low in field goal attempts. 

Tonight the Bulls get to play host and they’ve won three of four here in the Windy City. All three victories have been by a minimum of 15 points.

Toronto is without leading scorer Pascal Siakam and there’s no way VanVleet is going to be as productive as he was on Sunday. 

Another key takeaway from last night’s game is that Chicago turned it over 17 times, leading to 23 Toronto points. No way they are that careless again. I expect a Bulls’ bounce back at home where they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last four times hosting the Raptors. 8*

The Ravens and Jackson face the Saints and Dalton under the lights on Monday Night Football.  Not a lot separates these two teams in stats, although the Ravens have faced much stiffer defenses.  The Ravens' addition of Roquan Smith also adds a solid component to their defense.  The Saints completely shut down the hapless Raiders last week but the same team gave up 42 points to the Cardinals the week before.
Both teams could be described as run-first, and here the Ravens' defense have the edge.  They are 5th against the run, allowing just 80 yards a game in their last three starts.  The Ravens do give up more passing yards than the Saints, but Baltimore is tougher in pass pressure and much stronger in creating takeaways, significant this week because Dalton and the Saints do turn the ball over more frequently.  The Ravens have two solid run options and Lamar, plus an uptick in passing yards last week.  Not to underestimate Kamara and Hill, but they and Dalton will have a tougher time moving the ball this week.
Look for big Prime-time games from Smith and Jackson, and a Saints' regression tonight.  Take the Ravens to win and cover.

This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide. 

Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points. 

Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.

Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. 

Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10*

At 7-2, Phoenix has been one of the best teams in the league to start the season. Both losses came against Portland, but the Suns just avenged those on Saturday by beating the Blazers 102-82. 

Offensively, the Suns have been very good so far as they are averaging 115.1 points/game. But they are now missing Cam Johnson and possibly Cameron Payne (questionable for tonight) as well. The team’s scoring already dips away from home (111.5 points/game), but fortunately they are also third in the league in defense. 

Philadelphia is easier to defend right now as James Harden is out for a month and Joel Embiid is questionable for tonight with an illness. Without those two, the Sixers only managed 104 points in a loss to the Knicks on Friday.

Even if Embiid returns, the Sixers have struggled mightily on the offensive end all season. They are 23rd in the league in points/game (109.8). They haven’t shot all that poorly, but are bottom third in pace and that clearly plays a role in why they aren’t scoring all that much.

The Sixers have been exceptional at defending the three-point line here at home. The previous five visitors to the City of Brotherly Love have shot just 30.9% from three. 10*

The Seahawks meet the Cardinals at home off three straight victories, one of them against the Cardinals.  The Seahawks have a much improved defense since the start of the season.  There is now no defensive category that Seattle doesn't lead the Cardinals in the last three games, against roughly similar competition.  The Cardinals' defense is struggling against the run which plays to Seattle's fine young running back Walker III.  Arizona has also allowed a 93 average passer rating compared to 76 for the Seahawks in their last three games.
With the return of Hopkins, there has been an uptick in the Cardinals' passing game, however the Cardinals' O line has not protected Murray well and the Seahawks are averaging nearly 5 sacks a game and 71 pressures. The Cardinals' pass rush will have a good crack at Smith, but Smith has the benefit of  much better running backs.
Geno Smith has been an eye-opener this year, with an average passer rating 20 points higher than Murray's.  He has thrown for more TDs than Murray and with half the picks.  He is accurate and, surprise, he can run too, although not as well as Murray.  While he doesn't have Hopkins he does have a fine pair of targets in Metcalf and Lockett.
Seattle is a very well-directed team, and has been successful in addressing their weaknesses on the fly.  Other than the return of Hopkins, it has been status quo for Arizona.  Arizona must win or no, road or no, I am wagering that Seattle will win this game or at least cover.

Facing the Bears at home, the Dolphins successfully propped up a couple of areas in need of improvement, pass defense and run offense.  The Bears brought in a quality receiver, but moved their top two defensive players out.  We saw some of the effect last week as the Chicago defense absolutely plummeted in effectiveness.  They allowed double their season's average points against total, and their vaunted pass defense fell apart, allowing a third more yards.  Against a healthy and fired up Tua-lead Dolphins pass attack, this is not good news.
Fields didn't pass for any more yards than usual, but he did put up points with 0 picks, in spite of the usual 4 sacks. He and his RBs again put up monster yards on the ground.  He may not get a break from the pressure this week, as the usually mild-pressuring Dolphins added a heavy hitter in Chubb.  The Dolphins defense has also been very tough against the run, allowing an average of just 85 yards on the ground in their last three games, so this should be an interesting match-up.
It goes without saying that Miami is a pass-first offense, but they do have two very good running backs with the addition of Wilson.  The Bears are one of the easiest teams to run on, so this might be the week to vary the routine. The Bears surprised with the number of points they put up in the last two weeks, but the Dolphins can score in a hurry and the Bears have taken a huge hit on defense with their deadline losses.  I'm on the Dolphins to win and cover.  

The Lions' offense bounced back against the Dolphins last week but went absolutely nowhere in previous weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots.  The Packers have a solid pass defense, 2nd in pass yards allowed, which will go some way to limiting Detroit's options. Green Bay is also strong in red zone defense, and have limited 3rd down conversions.  They have an average passer rating of 79 in their last three weeks. The Lions also just shipped out their talented tight end at the deadline.  
Neither team runs much, although the Packers can and did step out vs the Bills last week, and should this week.  The Lions' run defense is lamentable.  In fact the Lions defense as a whole is lamentable, resulting in the dismissal of their defensive co-ordinator this week.  It only remains for the Packers to put some points on the board.  While his secondary stats aren't poor, Rodgers has not been able to put up points or yards this year.  The O line inconsistent with injuries, but is starting to recover, and his receiving corp is weak.  It has been suggested that Detroit's pass defense can make anyone look good.  The Packers used a much more balanced offense when they put up their most yards against a very tough Bills defense last week.  Look for them to continue to improve against a weakened Lions offense, and a disorganized Detroit defense.  I am on the Packers to bounce back, win and cover. 9*!

Wake Forest and NC State are both Top 25 teams that come into Saturday sporting identical 6-2 straight up records. But at the betting window, it’s been a different story for these ACC rivals. Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS while NC State is 2-6 ATS. 

Two Thursdays ago, NC State found itself down 21-3 at home to sorry Virginia Tech. But thanks to a QB change, the Wolfpack rallied for the 22-21 win. MJ Morris was the spark, coming in and throwing for three touchdowns. Morris completed 69% of his passes for 265 yards in the second half alone vs. Va Tech. With Devin Leary out for the season, NC State looks to have found its answer at QB1. 

Wake Forest is coming off an awful 48-21 loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over eight times, including six in the third quarter alone. The Demon Deacons’ only previous loss was in double overtime to Clemson, but I am skeptical of this team. The offense remains one-dimensional (can’t run the ball) and I believe that the NC State defense can slow down QB Sam Hartman.

NC State should not be an underdog in this game. They have won 15 straight at home, which is the sixth-longest home win streak in the nation currently. Wake Forest hasn’t won here in Raleigh since 2018. 

The Wolfpack are undervalued right now due to a five-game ATS losing skid and not having Leary. But Morris looks to be the real deal and you should take the points here. 10*

Game Six features a rematch of Game Two starters, Wheeler and Valdez.  Wheeler was lights out early in the postseason, but struggled against the Astros in his last start, experiencing a much remarked-on loss of velocity.  He was not as good on the road in the regular season, and was hit very hard by Houston’s big three batters last time out.
Astros left-hander Valdez has done everything asked of him to date, pitching into the 7th and holding the Phillies to just 1 run with 9 strikeouts.  That is now four straight games with 2 runs or less allowed, and you can throw in a shutout vs. the Phillies down the stretch as well.
The Astros are a formidable team at home and their bullpen just doesn’t break down.  I can’t see Wheeler pitching for length on Saturday. The Phillies’ best relievers were used extensively in Game Five. While both teams have a days’ rest, the Astros still have a huge edge in relief pitching.  The Astros are now the confident ones, winning two straight on the road, and playing against a pitcher they have had recent success with.  I expect a gutsy game from Wheeler and the Phillies, but it will be skill and experience over emotion again.  Take the Astros to finish the Phillies off on Saturday.

Tennessee is the definition of a “public underdog” this week. I will look to take advantage of that perception and fade the undefeated Volunteers in this spot as they visit fellow unbeaten, and reigning national champion, Georgia.

We all know that Tennessee’s offense has been great in 2022. But when they faced Georgia last year, things did not go so well. QB Hendon Hooker averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt (he’s averaging 10.6 YPA this season, for a frame of reference) and the Vols lost 41-17.

Georgia did lose a great deal of production to the NFL, but they remain quite strong on the defensive side of the ball. They are fourth nationally in success rate and fifth in EPA. Opposing offenses average only 4.6 yards per play against them.

Look for Kirby Smart and the Georgia coaching staff to slow the tempo of this game way down. The Bulldogs are already bottom 25 in the country in tempo. They will look to play “keep away” from the Tennessee offense. 

The last time a top-two team was an underdog of at least eight points was Notre Dame in the 2020 ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish lost by 24 to Clemson. Georgia makes a statement here. 8*

UCF has definitely had Memphis’ number through the years, winning 14 of the 16 all-time matchups. But the last time the Golden Knights paid a visit to the Liberty Bowl, which was 2020, they lost an insane 50-49 game. For Memphis, that ended a 13-game losing streak to UCF!

UCF won last year at “The Bounce House” 24-7 as a two-point dog. They come into this year’s meeting off a thrilling 25-21 win over Cincinnati, ending their own long losing streak to the Bearcats. But that win came with a cost. Starter John Rhys Plumleee was knocked out of that game with a concussion. Backup Mikey Keene may have engineered a game-winning drive, but he’s a pretty clear downgrade from Plumlee. 

Even though they have lost three in a row, this is a great spot to take the points with Memphis, who is coming off a bye. Two of those three losses were by a total of three points, one of them a four overtime game. The other was a blown lead late against Houston that involved an onside kick. There probably is also no shame in losing by 10 at Tulane, who is #19 in the initial CFP rankings.

Tigers QB Seth Henigan has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and has played well this season.

No matter who ends up playing QB for UCF here, give me the points. Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog going back to 2017. 10*

UAB and UTSA are the last two C-USA Champions. UTSA won the conference last season and along the way picked up a crazy 34-31 win (at home) over UAB with the game-winning touchdown coming in the final minute on a tipped pass. Previous to that, the Roadrunners had lost four straight times to the Blazers. They have never won here in Birmingham.

Heading into November, UTSA is sitting pretty atop the C-USA standings. They are the only team without a conference loss. UAB is just 2-3 in league play as a number of extenuating circumstances have gone against them.

With QB Dylan Hopkins sidelined with a concussion, UAB has lost two in a row. They still should have beaten Western Kentucky (lost 20-17) and then outgained Florida Atlantic in a 24-17 defeat. Yet they could very well go off as a favorite here, just as they have been for every game this season.

Hopkins is questionable for Saturday, which would mean Jacob Zeno under center again. That combined with the fact UTSA is coming off a bye will lead many to believe the Roadrunners are the “right” side here. I disagree. UAB’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively, no matter who the QB is. I like RB DeWayne McBride (#1 in the nation in yards per game) a lot. The Blazers’ defense will be the best UTSA has seen this season, besides Texas. 

UAB is a very unfortunate 0-4 in one-score games this season. No team in the country has fallen further short of their postgame expected win total. UTSA on the other hand is 3-1 in one-score games including 31-27 over North Texas two weeks ago. I think this is a get right game for UAB, who is a perfect 11-0 ATS at home when off a loss. 10*

This is Nottingham Forest’s first season back in the Premier League since 1998-99 and, not surprisingly, they have struggled. Currently in last place, Forest is the only team without double digit points and their -20 goal differential is also a league worst.

But before the 5-0 thrashing they took from Arsenal last week, Forest had been a pretty decent defensive side. They’d held four straight opponents to 1 or 0 goals including a shock clean sheet win over Liverpool. 

Now the attack is poor. You’d have to go all the way back to September to find the last time Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal in a match. They scored only two goals over the course of six October fixtures. 

Forest has been tougher at home, which is where they’ve earned seven of their nine points this season. Brentford will be without star striker Ivan Toney. It’s bad enough that the Bees have scored only one goal in their previous three matches, that coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton. Over the last seven matches, they have scored a total of just four goals. 

Defensively, Brentford should be fine here. They’ve been a little unlucky when it comes to conceding on the road this year. But when they traveled to take on another promoted side, AFC Bournemouth, they allowed just seven shots and zero goals. 10*

Oregon State comes into Friday night ranked #23 in the country, but is a short underdog on the road to unranked Washington. Last season, the Beavers snapped a nine-game losing streak to the Huskies, winning 27-24 as 2.5-point favorites. Now they go for their first win in Seattle since 2008.

OSU opened 2022 with three straight wins and covers. But then they fell to both USC and Utah. No shame there as those are two of the 15 best teams in America. Since then, the Beavers have rallied for a second three-game win streak, albeit against Stanford, Washington State and Colorado.

Washington opened the season at 4-0 and was ranked in Top 25. They are also now 6-2 with the losses coming on the road to UCLA and Arizona State. The Huskies have been favored in every game. QB Michael Penix Jr leads the country in passing yards, but is likely to encounter some resistance here as OSU’s defense gives up only 230.6 passing yards/game. 

Oregon State’s offense is #1 in the conference in yards per pass attempt and #3 in rushing. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble moving the ball against a Washington defense that has allowed three of its last four opponents to score 39 or more.

Weather could be an issue here. But look for OSU to stop turning the ball over so much. They were -8 in TO’s in their two losses. Washington has forced just one turnover in its last four games. Take the points in a game where I've got the two teams rated pretty evenly. 10*

Following a 3-0 start to the year, Boston has dropped three of four - both SU and ATS. On Friday night, they’ll get a chance to avenge that first loss of the season, which came against Chicago. 

The Bulls have won four of six and tonight go for their first three-game win streak of the season. They have beaten both Brooklyn and Charlotte to start November, the former of which was also a win for me. 

In the first game vs. the Celtics, Chicago got to the free throw line quite a bit. They ended up going 26 of 29 from the charity stripe. I do not think they’ll be as productive there tonight. 

Having held their last two opponents below 100 points, the Bulls’ defense should keep them in this one. I expect a much lower scoring game than what we saw from these two teams on 10/24 - when they combined for 222 points.

That makes the Under a “no-brainer” in my eyes. The Under is 6-0 the last six times Chicago has faced a team that has a winning record. Boston has allowed just 94 and 107 points its last two games, excluding overtime. 8* 

The Sabres are firing on all cylinders on offense, with 18 goals scored in their last 3 games, all victories.  They are on the road and face a very good Hurricanes team fresh off an overtime victory against the Lightning.  Maybe too fresh, as the Canes are playing the second half of a back to back.

The Sabres lost both games against Carolina, but that was then.. This is a different Sabres club with an equal record to the Hurricanes.  They are 2nd in league offense, 3-1 to date on the road, and have the edge in special teams.  The odds-makers are slow in cottoning on to the Sabres, allowing for very favorable odds on Friday.  A win wouldn’t surprise me, but I am wagering on the Sabres to at least keep this one close.  Take Buffalo +1.5

This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass. 

These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet. 

UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG. 

UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. 

UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8*

 The Eagles, 3rd in points scored this year, have beaten 4 teams by 12 or more points this season.  The Texans have lost just once by more than Thursday's total points, but have yet to face a top 10 defense, let alone a team of the caliber of the Eagles.  The Raiders and the Chargers put up 30+ points against Houston, but neither team has as complete an offense as the Eagles.  Philadelphia does give up more rush yards and yards per attempt lately, their weakest spot on defense, but the Texans don't really have a run game.  The Texans could have an opportunity to pressure Hurts as they are 19th and improving in sacks, but Hurts and Co. could just run the ball down the Texans' throats all evening if they wanted.  the Texans gave up a whopping 314 rushing yards last week, and stand last in rush yards.  The Eagles, really, should be able to pass or run at will, and will likely have a huge time of possession advantage. As long as they show up to play, the Eagles should win and cover under the light on TNF.

Nothing like a bounce back co-operative no-hitter to inspire a bit of confidence for Houston.  Now in the Phillies' final home game of the series they run out Syndergaard, who had an average year throwing mainly soft stuff, but has been very good in brief appearances since mid-September. The Phillies will likely have a similar tactic on Thursday; anything over 3 or 4 innings will be a bonus.
Verlander has had a couple of ugly starts in the post season, each one after extended rest. He re-found his form after his dud against Seattle, giving up just 1 run over 6 innings against the Yankees.  Can he repeat in the same fashion after the Phillies roughed him up in game One?  His history would suggest it, although you've got to believe there will be a quicker response in moving to Plan B should he struggle early.
The Astros still have the better options post-starter on Thursday, and can better afford an early exit from a starter.  This one is a must-win situation for the Phillies, but the Astros are starting to get a good look at Philadelphia's relievers, and as good as the Phillies batters have been, they've had almost no success against Houston's pen.  Depth wins out over emotion in game 5.  Take the Astros to win again.

This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams.

The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year.

But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them.

Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. 

But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. 

Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. 

Once again, let’s take advantage of injury news and grab some value with an NBA underdog. Last night, it was Chicago getting it done for us with an outright win in Brooklyn. Tonight, Portland is going to be without Damian Lillard, but they are at home and I like them getting points vs. Memphis.

The Blazers did not have Lillard in the lineup last Friday, but still defeated the Houston Rockets by a score of 125-111. They’re well rested coming into Wednesday (four days off!) and are 5-1 SU on the season. 

Memphis is just 4-3 with the wins coming over New York, Houston, Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Grizzlies have been beaten twice by Utah and got blown out (by 41 points) in Dallas.

Ja Morant is having a strong start for the Grizz, but the problem for the team has been defense. Memphis has given up 120 or more points in five of the seven games so far, resulting in the worst defensive rating in the league. They miss Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for tonight, though I expect him to play. 

Yes, Memphis will be motivated by the back to back losses to Utah. Bettors will be tempted to lay a small number with a favorite hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. But Portland has the best record in the Western Conference and, when rested, can get the job done as a home dog. They beat the Grizzlies in three of the four regular season meetings last year. Take the points. 

Everyone's favorite cinderfella team was at it again, stunning the Astros with a 7-0 rout. At home again today, it is the Phillies' Nola vs Christian Javier.  Javier, the Astros' young right hander, was lights out vs the Rays over 6+ innings in his only postseason start as well as nearly perfect in September (0.40 ERA over 22 innings.)  Nola shut out the Astros down the stretch, and pitched very well in his first two postseason starts, allowing just 1 run.  He has struggled since against the Padres and Astros, allowing 11 runs, and 4 HR, in his last 9 innings.  Both bullpens are in very good shape after the extra day of rest and yesterday's blowout.  The Phillies, with the supposedly inferior pitching staff, keep making it work, and they also keep pounding out the long balls, but I don't think this series is done yet.  Nola's very poor pitching is troubling, and while he will be on a short leash today, the Astros will be all in after yesterday's poor performance.  Look for Javier to silence the Phillies' bats and crowd today, and the Astros big bats to speak out.  The Astros bullpen was, as usual, very good again yesterday.  Take the Astros to win.

Even though the Fall Classic now moves to Philadelphia, I feel the pendulum has swung in the Astros’ direction.  The Astros were 2nd in the league against left-handers and have hit them very hard as well in the postseason. They are a very good road team.  
McCullers Jr should be recovered from the champagne bottle incident.  He has otherwise been very sharp down the stretch with a shutout of the Phillies and another in the postseason over the Mariners.
Suarez who has replaced Syndergaard after the rain delay has been up and down in the post season.  He was thumped by the Astros at the tail end of the regular season. I n the postseason, he was wild in his first start, walking 5 in 3 innings, although allowing just 1 run.  He settled down in his second start, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings against the Padres, and has come out of the bullpen on two occasions since.  The Phillies will likely keep him on a short leash, but Suarez does have a solid upside. The Astros have the edge in the later innings.  While the Phillies bullpen has been overachieving in the post season, the Astros relievers have been exceptional all year.
Of all teams, the Astros will be least affected by the noise in C B Park, having faced the very vocal ire of the fans in every stadium they have visited for years.  The Astros pitchers have also shut down Harper to date in the series.  The Phillies have a terrific home playoff record, but face a very experienced team with a great and well rested pitcher on the mound.  Take the Astros to steal this one on the road.

The Nets have been a disaster at the betting window thus far, failing to cover in five straight and coming into Tuesday with a 1-6 ATS record on the season. This will be the second night of a back to back for them. Last night saw them defeat the Pacers 116-109 but just miss out on covering as 7.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, after dropping both games of a back to back, the Bulls have had two days to prepare for this game. They are potentially going to be short-handed though with LaVine, Dosunmu and White all listed as questionable. That’s in addition to both Drummond and Ball still being out.

But DeMar DeRozan will still be in the Bulls’ lineup and I think there’s still enough of a supporting cast around him (Vucevic, Caruso, Dragic) to get the job done. Certainly, Chicago should see improvement at the offensive end as the Nets can’t stop anybody right now. Brooklyn is third worst in the league in points allowed coming into Tuesday, giving up 120.3 per game. 

Last night’s win aside, the Nets just haven’t been very good so far this season. Them laying a short number at home in the second night of a back to back just feels like the oddsmakers are setting a trap. The Nets lack depth. This team is a horrible 13-37-1 ATS its last 51 home games. 8*

All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot. 

Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.

What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.

Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio.

Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10*

Bayern Munich has already clinched Group C by virtue of winning all five of its Champions League matches thus far. Inter Milan will be joining the German giants in the Round of 16 as they are guaranteed to finish second in the group by virtue of a win and a draw against Barcelona. 

So it’s basically just “pride” on the line in this final Group C fixture. I expect a cautious, perhaps even a downright conservative approach from both sides Tuesday. There’s just no incentive to “let loose” for either Bayer or Inter here, especially with big matches looming this weekend (in the respective domestic leagues) and various players getting ready for the World Cup as well. 

Bayern will be without Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez. That’s a lot of missing firepower.

Inter, who has won four straight in all competitions, has a pretty match in Serie A against Juventus this weekend. So there’s no reason for them to push it either. But expect goalkeeper Samir Handanovic to continue his fine form. Three of those four straight Inter victories have been clean sheets. 

Bayern has conceded only twice in its five CL matches. The first one with Inter was a 2-0 final. I can’t see this one being any more high-scoring. Play the Under. 9*

The Bengals offense is sizzling, showing huge improvement in their recent games.  They put up mammoth yards last week, and are top eight in points and Red zone offense, and top 2 in possession time and 3rd down conversions.  While they are running more successfully and getting more points from the rush offense, It is their passing game, as expected that is carrying the team.  Burrows has been a standout and isn't even sacked as often  lately.  In fact, using sack %, the Browns' QB Brissett has been sacked just as often in recent games.
The Browns' offense has slipped lately, down in some important categories including rush yards, 3re down conversion and sacks, 5 last week and 3 a game L3.  Jacoby Brissett had a very good game even with the sacks last week, but by and large he has been average or worse, with an average QB rating of 76 L3 games.
The Bengals' defense has been solid lately,terrific in the red zone, 2nd in time of possession, and 6th in points allowed,; all told they are a considerably better defense that their opponent.  Their rush defense is just middle of the pack, allowing Chubb some room to move, but the Browns won't keep up with the Bengals' high-powered offense by running the ball.  The Bengals are tough to move against in the air, and while they don't pressure passers at an elite level, they are much better at it than the Browns.  Imagine Burrow with time to play!
I am on the Bengals under the lights, especially now that a 3 point line is available.  Yes the Bengals will miss Chase, but the Browns are arguably the  worse off in terms of week 8 injuries.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

These teams just met on Saturday. Indiana was a 125-116 winner, thanks in no small part to rookie Bennedict Mathurin going for 32 points. The Pacers were 11 point underdogs as they won their second straight game.

Brooklyn has lost four in a row and five of six to open the season. In the words of their own head coach, the Nets have been a “disaster” defensively. In each of the last four defeats, an opposing player has gone for 30 or more points. Mathurian, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield combined to make 17 three-pointers Saturday.

I think the Nets are going to be extremely focused on the defensive end tonight as they are keenly aware of their previous lackluster efforts on that end of the floor. Plus, the Pacers are probably due to “cool off” a bit after hitting a combined 38 threes in the last two games.

Myles Turner did not suit up for Indiana on Saturday. With him in the lineup, the team is poised to be a lot better defensively. He is not on the injury report for Monday.

This is a really high total, a number that the teams barely cleared 48 hours ago. With Indiana unlikely to shoot as well as they did Saturday and (hopefully) a renewed commitment to defense from the Nets, Under is my call for tonight. Also, Brooklyn probably won’t shoot 50% from the field again. 10*

The Lakers stink. But because they are the Lakers and NBA’s lone remaining winless team, there are going to be bettors who want to keep playing them. I am here to tell you NOT to make that mistake!

Not only are the Lakers 0-5 straight up, but they are also 0-5 against the spread. They have been an underdog in four of those games and tonight will be their fifth time catching points. No team is worse when it comes to shooting from behind the three-point line. In fact, the Lakers’ current 28.3 3PT FG% would be sixth worst in league history over a single season.

Anthony Davis did not play on Friday when LA lost to Minnesota 111-102. He is hopeful to return this evening. Won’t matter though, Denver is simply the superior basketball team here.

The Nuggets have won four of five since a season-opening loss at Utah. The last time they lost, they led at half before falling apart down the stretch. By the way, Denver has already beaten the Lakers once this year, 110-99, and did so without the services of Michael Porter Jr (who is likely to play tonight). 

The Lakers are the worst offensive team in the league and just don’t have the firepower to stick with a team like Denver, who has averaged over 117 points in its last five games. Lay the points. 10* 

The Colts are on the road and facing an improved Commanders team off a big win last week.  Neither team puts many points on the board, and neither team gives up many against. Both defenses are top ten in applying pressure on passers, and almost equally bad in protecting their own QBs.  The Commanders have a pair of accomplished and complementary RBs, and are using them more each week.  The Colts have a recovering Jonathon Taylor, who has been seriously under-used when playing to date.  For whatever reason, the Colts are in the cellar in rushing categories, but that may change this week.  With a young QB who has yet to throw a pass in the NFL, the run game will likely be a huge part of the Colts offense on Sunday.
Heinicke was effective against the Packers last week, and seemed in synch with the Commanders top targets.  Ehlinger is a huge unknown this week.  The Colts are throwing him out there with no experience, not necessarily a recipe for success.
With a much improved defense, and an effective run game that matches up well against a Colts' defense that can be run on , and as a 3 point underdog, I like the Commanders' chances again this week.  Take the Commanders to win or stay close on Sunday.

It is all about the run on both sides of the ball for the Titans.  King Henry is most of the offense, but Tennessee isn't even close to having the best running stats.  The Titans run a very efficient offense, scoring more points with less yards.  Tannehill is out, and while he doesn't put up huge numbers, he has been accurate, effective and doesn't make many mistakes.  It remains to be seen how much the inclusion of Willis will affect the  Titans' offense management.  Willis will bring his own abilities.  He can run effectively, adding to an otherwise one-dimensional run offense.  
The Texans are en-mired in the depths of the NFL, averaging just 17 points and giving up 22, although the Raiders put up 38 last week.  They also have a fine running back in Pierce, but face a very tough Titans run defense that has limited teams to just 45 yards and few points in their last three games.  Mills could have some success in the air for Houston.  The Titans give up plenty of passing yards and points, but are physically very tough on passers with 60 pressures and 3 sacks per game on avg. Mills had his best game in week seven, but will likely have less time to operate this week.  He has been pretty average otherwise, with 5 picks to just 7 TDs, and a passer rating of 83.
The Texans possess arguably the worst rush defense in the league, and could be chewed up by Henry, and maybe Willis.  They are a better bet against the pass, but there may not be much of that this week from the Titans.  If this were just about any other team than the Texans, I would be worried for the Titans' chances, but with the loss of Tannehill, the Texans are now favored, and I just can't see that happening.  Take the Titans to cover.

So far this season the Cowboys' success is largely defense-driven.  That may change with Prescott back, but against a very tough Bears defense, I don't see Dallas as a huge scoring threat this week. For the Bears, their limited success is all about gaining on the ground and limiting the opposition's pass offense.  The Bears have the most rushing yards in the league; their  pair of running backs and a mobile QB in Fields put up a mighty 240 plus yards against the Patriots last week.  The Cowboys can also run the football, but will likely miss key performer Elliott to injury this week.
The Cowboys managed 24 points last week against a weak Lions Defense.  Their pass attack has been poor, but should improve as Prescott gets some reps.  Dallas has been very good at protecting their passer.  Not so the Bears.  Fields has been sacked or pressured the most in the league, part of the explanation for the Bears' woeful pass offense.
Both teams are very tough to score on, 2nd (Dallas) and 6th in the league.  The Bears' defense has improved over their last few games, and it is almost a toss-up as to which defense is better.  There is one huge caveat however, and that is passer pressure.  The Cowboys are tops in the league in sacks while the Bears don't really force passers much at all.
The Cowboys are 10 point favorites, and even with Prescott back I don't think Dallas will move the ball as easily as that line would suggest.  Look for the Bears' defense to slow the game down.  Their offense has been very good at staying on the field (62% last week), if not necessarily scoring points.  By necessity, this game should be run-first from both sides. Watch the Bears keep this one close enough to cover.

For the first time in quite a while, Arsenal will take the pitch not on top of the Premier League table. Manchester City moved one point ahead with a 1-0 win over Leicester City Saturday morning, but the Gunners now have their opportunity to move right back into first. They should as they are heavy favorites against Nottingham Forest, one of the three recently promoted sides for this season.

It’s actually top vs. bottom in this fixture. Forest will enter Sunday potentially all alone in last place, depending on how Wolves and Leeds fare Saturday. Regardless, we know Forest will be in the relegation zone and are likely to remain there after this match has concluded. Arsenal has not lost to a promoted side here at Emirates Stadium since 2010. 

The money line on Arsenal is unplayable at this price, however the total is offering value. It would surprise me to see the Gunners concede a goal here. They are tied for the second fewest goals allowed in the Premier League with just 11 while Forest has the second fewest goals scored this season with only 8. 

But Forest has stepped it up defensively of late, giving up just two goals in the last four matches and only one of them coming during open play. They posted a clean sheet last week against Liverpool (won 1-0!) 

Meanwhile, Arsenal has now failed to score more than one goal in five straight matches after going down 2-0 to PSV in the Europa League on Thursday. All signs points to this being a low-scoring match. Play the Under. 10*

After a wild ride in game one of the WS, The Astros are favored to bounce back. With both starters faltering early and multiple bullpen arms used, the Astros definitely have the better relief options in game 2. Wheeler starts for the Phillies. Since returning from a stretch on the IL, has has been exceptional, and that fine play has stretched into the post season. Wheeler has the potential to pitch late into the game today, and has his best stuff in years. The Philllies have more than “made do” with their bullpen through the post season.

Astros’ left handed starter Valdez had a fine season, but did struggle down the stretch for a couple of games. He also struggled seriously in the Astros’ WS run last year. The Phillies hit left-handers well all season, are getting fine offense, and have momentum on their side. That extra innings win may have rattled the Astros’ cage. This wouldn’t be the first time that the Astros have lost out in a WS run. Unexpectedly down after blowing a big lead is unsettling, but more to the point, the Phillies must win Wheeler’s start to have any chance of defeating the Astros over the series. I am going with the Phillies’ offense, momentum and emotion today. (deep breath here) Take the underdog Phillies to steal this game.

South Carolina is now ranked after wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Kentucky did not have its starting quarterback and A&M got itself into an early 17-0 hole. But even after being up three scores just a couple minutes into the game, the Gamecocks could not pull away last week. They were outgained by more than 100 yards. 

Missouri should have won at Florida and Auburn. They stayed within four points of Georgia. Last week saw them finally break back into the win column, beating Vanderbilt 17-14. As 14-point favorites in that game, the TIgers obviously didn’t cover. But now we’re getting them as underdogs.

There’s a lot to like about the Mizzou defense. Over the previous five games, they’ve allowed less than 100 points. No one has scored more than 26. 

The last three times these teams played, Missouri has gone 3-0 SU and ATS. They went off as the favorite each time. This will be the first time South Carolina has been favored over Missouri since 2016.

An obvious letdown spot for the Gamecocks after their first ever win over Texas A&M. They are 1-5 ATS L6 and 0-3 L3 as a ranked team. Missouri is better than its record and its defense can keep SC (just 286 yards last week) in check. Grab the points. 

California has been very good as an underdog under Justin Wilcox. The Bears have covered 17 of the 20 times they’ve gotten 7 points or more from the oddsmakers. Overall, Wilcox boasts a 23-9-1 ATS record when catching points. He’s won 13 of those games outright, covered four straight times as a home dog and three straight times as a double digit dog. 

His team covered last week as a dog, only losing by 7 to Washington. That was also here in Berkeley. Earlier in the day, Oregon posted its signature win of the season, holding off UCLA 45-30 in Eugene. Does that result make this a bit of a letdown spot for the Ducks? Probably.

Cal has lost three straight and four of five. But only one of those losses was by greater than seven points. 

Oregon’s pass defense also isn’t great. You may not have noticed with all the points the offense has put up. But I expect Cal to put a decent number of points on the board. In two previous road games, the Ducks allowed a combined 63 points. They lost their last trip into Berkeley (back in 2020). 

The Cal defense is not bad! They held Washington without a touchdown for two-and-a-half quarters last week. Grab the points.

Rice had a 5-game ATS win streak snapped last week. They still won the game, 42-41 at Louisiana Tech, but were 2.5-point favorites. It was the first time all season that the Owls were favored to defeat a FBS opponent. Yet surprisingly, they come into this game with Charlotte sporting a 4-3 SU record.

Now the Owls are favored again, only this time by three scores. If you can’t remember the last time Rice was a favorite of this size, let me help you out. It was last year against Texas Southern. They were -34 and only won 48-34. Before that, it was the 2018 season opener against Prairie View A&M. They were -19 and won just 31-28. It’s been a very long time since a Rice team was a favorite of this size over a non-FCS team.

So who is Rice playing this week? That would be Charlotte, who is coming off a loss to FIU that got their head coach fired. The 49ers were actually a double digit favorite last week (-14) but turned it over five times in the 34-15 loss. You can’t say a lot of positive things about this Charlotte team. But they do bring the element of surprise with a new head coach into this game.

Recently, we’ve seen several schools turn in inspired efforts following a coaching change. Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and WIsconsin all won their first games. All but Wisconsin were underdogs. 

But at the end of the day, this is a clear fade on Rice. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anybody. Not even Charlotte.

This is a rough spot for Syracuse, who last week suffered their first loss of the season (at Clemson) and also probably saw their ACC Championship hopes go out the window as well.

The Orange had been favored in five of their first six games. But still it was a surprise to see them 6-0 and ranked #14 in the country heading into Death Valley last week It was a close game they ended up losing 27-21, but it seems pertinent to mention that ‘Cuse got outgained 450-291 and was -10 in first downs. If not for four Clemson turnovers, it probably wouldn’t have been much of a game.

Notre Dame started the year ranked in the Top 5. However, three losses have them out of the Top 25  entirely. The Fighting Irish are the only team in the country to lose two different games as a double digit favorite (Marshall, Stanford). Their other loss came in the opener at Ohio State. Nothing wrong with that one. The Irish even led 10-7 at the half in Columbus. It was a four-point game late into the fourth quarter. 

In terms of margin of victory, last week was Notre Dame’s biggest win of the season. They beat UNLV 44-21. But they didn't cover the 26-point spread. Now as an underdog though, they are worth backing. The Fighting Irish are 12-3 ATS the last 15 games against Top 25 opponents, including 2-0 this season. Wins over North Carolina and BYU were more impressive than they look, just judging from the final score. 

This will be the first time these teams have played since 2003. I expect ND to run the ball effectively. Since the start of 2020, no team in the country has a better ATS road record than the Fighting Irish, who are 8-2. They have covered each of the last three times as a road underdog. 10*

TCU lucked out with Kansas State having to use three different quarterbacks last week. At home, the Horned Frogs battled back from a 28-10 deficit to get the win and cover as 3.5-point chalk. But this is going to be the sixth straight Saturday TCU has been on the field. Four of the previous five have been close. Can they stay undefeated? Possibly. But I don’t like them laying this many points in Morgantown. 

West Virginia, the last time they played in Morgantown, beat Baylor 43-40. That’s the only time they’ve played at Neyland Stadium since mid-September. This will be the first Saturday game in Morgantown since 9/17.  Things got bad in a 38-10 loss last week at Texas Tech. But I believe that sets us up to get a great value here on the Mountaineers. 

I know that the WVU defense isn’t great. But TCU’s offense is coming off a stretch of five games where they had to come from behind to win three different times. They are just the second team since 1996 to come back from a 17-point deficit in consecutive weeks against Top 25 opponents. 

Plus, I’ve got to mention all the backup quarterbacks the Horned Frogs have gotten to face. Each of their last four games have seen the opponents’ starting QB get injured! 

Sonny Dykes has traditionally not fared well when his teams are ranked, on the road and facing an unranked opponent. He is only 1-10 ATS in that spot. West Virginia is on a 4-1 ATS run vs. Top 25 teams. TCU has also lost the last four meetings to WVU and failed to cover six straight. 

New Orleans was kind to me in their last game as they pulled off the upset, beating Dallas 113-111 as five-point home underdogs. They did so without three starters - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones. 

Ingram is already listed as being OUT for Friday while the other two (Williamson, Jones) are questionable to play. A fourth starter, CJ McCollum, is also listed as questionable.

Going on the road to face Phoenix, who had the league’s best record last season (including a league-high 32 wins at home), I don’t expect the banged up Pelicans to have the kind of success they had at home Tuesday night. 

The Suns, like the Pelicans, are 3-1 with the one loss being a one-possession game. But they just throttled both the Clippers and Warriors, beating those two by a combined 46 points! The Suns are in peak form right now and healthy, so look for them to take care of the wounded Pelicans.

These teams met in the first round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix won the series in six games. With the starting five for New Orleans so banged up, this line definitely looks to be a little “short.” 10*

The Phillies are up against a very tough Astros team who have now won 9 straight.  With the change in pitchers, it is now Nola who starts game one. Nola faced the Astros at the end of the regular season, shutting them out over 6 innings, but he did have a couple of poor starts mixed in with the good in September, and the poor start against the Padres in the post season. Nola has been consistently good in the early innings, but this season his ERA has ballooned past the fourth. After two fine starts in the postseason, he struggled against the Padres with a poor 4 inning effort. He will have extra rest this time out.

.  He likely faces  Astros' ace Verlander, who has been dominant this season.  He had a very poor outing against the Mariners in his first postseason start, but he has sandwiched that appearance with a pair of quality ones, including a shutout of the Phillies down the stretch. Are the Astros just being coy about naming a starter? It doesn’t really matter. They have multiple fine options for a first game pitcher.

Based on the regular season, this one should be no contest.  The Astros' pitchers, starters and bullpen alike, have been almost unhittable in the postseason, however the Phillies have peaked at precisely the right moment.  They have a monster performer in Bryce Harper driving the offense,  a couple of other big boppers stepping up, and have hit 16 home runs in the post season.  It is a very short series and one or two hitters can make a huge difference. The Astros have multiple players with great production in the postseason, so their bats can’t be underestimated. With a very low total posted for the game, I am looking for a little more offense in game one. Take the over in this one.

The Devils are an improved team, especially on offense, but in the net it has been a bit of the "same ol'".  They've limited shots but not necessarily goals. Blackwood (.871 save%) was expected to start but may be injured, in which case it will be Vanacek, who has struggled to an .833 save% in net.  Their goals against have fluctuated wildly, but against the Avs, expect more rather than less today.  
The Avalanche are underachieving (for them) on offense to date, but have far too much firepower for this to continue.  They still have the best power play in the league, and have been good on the road so far.  Georgiev, today's likely net minder, has been solid in net, but the Avalanche give up a ton of chances and sport one of the worst PKs in the league at the moment.
Look for the Avs to break out on offense and the Devils to reply in kind, resulting in a relatively high-scoring affair.  I am on the over today. 9*!

Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them.

Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. 

Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. 

While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. 

So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10*

The Bucs may be playing at home, but after their recent performances, the reception may not be all that warm. There is a lot of fault finding going on and much of it is directed towards Brady. He certainly hasn’t stood out in recent games, this against pass defenses no better than the Ravens’. Considering how well protected he is, his stats are far from outstanding. While the Bucs are 6th in pass yards, their yards per attempt and per completion are well down in the leagues’ 20th rank. Brady has an average passer rating of just 87 in the last three games. Tampa Bay has no run game to speak of; they’ve only run on 21% of their plays L3, and are last in rushing yards and yards/attempt. Did I mention they are 26th in points scored?

As for the Ravens’ offense, they are 6th in points scored, and solid in converting third downs. While Jackson’s pass numbers are nothing special, he and the Baltimore backs have run very successfully. And while the offense is definitely run-first, the Ravens at least have a pass attack, decent in yards per attempt and completion, if low in total yards.

On defense, the Buccaneers are still 6th in pass yards allowed but have seen a regression in many defensive categories. They have been relatively easy to run on, horrible defending in the red zone, and seen points allowed climb to a high of 21 against the Panthers last week. Their Qb pressure figures have been good this season, but they managed only 1 sack last week.

As the Bucs’ defense has sunk, there has been a definite improvement in The Ravens’ defense in their last three games, especially in the red zone and in Qb pressure (5 sacks last week and an average of 4 L3 games). The are strong against the run should Tampa make the effort, and improving in pass defense.

I don’t foresee a huge improvement in the Buccaneers’ fortunes this week. The ravens’ offense does not match up well against the Buccaneers’ strengths. Both teams have injuries but Tampa really drew the short straw as far as missing starters goes. Gone too is some of that Buccaneers’ mystique. Losing to two of the worst teams back to back, a sullen and ineffective Brady, and nowevery opposing team out to kick them while they are down, doesn’t bode well for the near future. They say bad things come in threes. Look for another poor game from the Bucs. Take the Ravens on Thursday on Thursday night.

Brooklyn is now 1-3 straight up and against the spread after losing 110-99 last night in Milwaukee. That result worked for me as I had the Under (233), making it a 24-point winner on this end. The Nets were not so fortunate as their second-half defensive woes continued. This team was outscored 67-44 in the 2H by the Bucks, blowing a 12-point lead in the process.

That came on the heels of another terrible 2H performance in Memphis Monday night where the Nets gave up 70 points after the break and lost by 10. Notable is that the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo both scored the majority of their points in the 2H. Of the 81 points those two players scored against the Nets, 66 came after the break. So don’t be surprised if the Mavs’ Luka Doncic is able to pour it on late tonight.

Not even 37 points from both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving was enough for the Nets last night. Durant struggled against double teams the last time he faced Dallas, getting held to 23 points on 8 of 20 shooting. Irving did not play in that game (due to the vaccine mandate at the time) but his presence here may not be enough to turn the tide, considering 74 points from the Nets’ top two players was not enough against Milwaukee.

Dallas is 1-2 on the year, but should probably be 3-0 as they blew fourth quarter leads in both losses. They had a 22-point lead against Phoenix in the opening game while the Pelicans (another winner for me) hot shooting (57.9%) was too much to overcome Tuesday. 

Playing in the second night of a back to back, Brooklyn won’t shoot as well as New Orleans did against the Mavericks. This is the first back to back for the Nets this season. They are 11-17 ATS in this situation the previous two seasons and have already given up 130 or more points twice to start 2022-23. The Mavs are 5-2 SU the last 7 meetings with the Nets and are the better team right now. 10*

The Oilers are putting the puck in the net with considerable frequency, as expected, but are allowing over three goals a game on defense.  That recent 0-2 home loss against the Blues really stands out amid the usual 8 or more goal totals.  Blues' projected goaltender Binnington is 3-0 with a very sharp .944 save %.  Jack Campbell has started the bulk of the Oilers games and has a sub .900 save % to date.  The Blues are always tough to play against, and after their first loss of the season, could be particularly ornery.  Special teams will likely figure prominently.  The Blues have yet to yield a power play goal, but face the League's #2 power play.  The Blues are a slight underdog at home, but so far have had the answer to the Oilers' firepower.  Take the Blues to win.

The Bucks and Nets met in the playoffs two years ago with the former winning a seven-game series en route to a NBA Championship. Last year, both teams fell victim to eventual Eastern Conference Champions Boston.

The Bucks have played only two games so far and they won them both, 90-88 at Philadelphia and 125-105 over Houston. The latter result came here at home on Saturday. Not only was Milwaukee one of the last two teams to start the season, they’ve now been off for three days. So I don’t expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders in this game, especially without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton

It’s a small sample size, but the Bucks are only 19th in offensive efficiency. There have been no problems defensively however, as they rank #1 in efficiency. The team is also playing slower to start the year. 

Though Brooklyn has been a bit of a disaster defensively thus far, the above factors have me on the Under in this game. The Nets’ offensive numbers haven’t been that good and that’s just as big of a reason as why they come into tonight at 1-2 SU/ATS. The starting five has not played well together. 

Milwaukee has scored at least 120 in 9 of the last 11 regular season meetings with Brooklyn. But the Under is 10-3 the L13 meetings overall, including 6-1 in Milwaukee. This number is too high.

Barcelona’s motivation for Wednesday’s match will be greatly affected by Inter Milan’s result earlier in the day. If Inter defeats Viktoria Plzen (and you would expect they would), then Barca has no chance of progressing to the Round of 16. 

But nevertheless, I expect this to be a high-scoring match as Robert Lewandowski faces his former club. 

Bayern Munich has already booked its spot in the knockout stage by winning all of its four Champions League matches so far. They’ve scored a total of 13 goals in the four wins. Prior to a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim on Saturday in the Bundesliga, Bayern had scored four or more times in five of six matches overall. You’ve got to figure they are going to score at least two today.

It was a 2-0 Bayern win when they hosted Barcelona last month. But the underlying metrics say that Barca was a bit unlucky there as they created more big scoring chances and had a higher xG. Can’t see Lewandowski and company getting blanked at Camp Nou, regardless if they’ve still got a shot to move on in this competition or not. 

Bayern’s defense can be leaky, especially when away from home. They’ve also conceded twice in three of the last five matches overall. I like the Over here. 10* 

I’m going to go ahead and assume Zion Williamson (bruised him) plays tonight. Now the Pelicans are banged up beyond Williamson as Brandon Ingram is in concussion protocol while Herbert Jones hyperextended his knee. But CJ McCollum is more than ready to go and you can look for New Orleans to cover the spread at home tonight.

With McCollum leading the way, New Orleans  erased all of a 17-point fourth quarter deficit against the Jazz Saturday night. Eventually, the Pelicans went down in overtime, their first loss of the season. I had them plus the points against Brooklyn in the season opener and then they also beat Charlotte 124-112 for a 2-0 start.

Dallas probably feels it should be 2-0 as they let a 22-point lead slip away in their season opener against Phoenix. The Mavericks then got off to another great start against Memphis on Saturday, but this time didn’t allow their opponents back in it. The Mavs won 137-96.

With or without Williamson, I look for the Pelicans to control the paint in this matchup. They did not trail at any point in the first two games of the season. 10*

Celtic has had a pretty disastrous run so far in the Champions League, losing three of their four matches and earning one draw. Their -7 GD is among the worst in the competition (only three teams worse). But today, I think you can expect a much better showing from the Scottish standardbearers as they face the side they previously earned a draw with, Shakhtar Donetsk. 

If they are to have any hope of finishing third in the group and progressing to the Europa League knockout stage, Celtic must win here. I thought that they pretty clearly were the better side when they faced Shakhtar Donetsk the last time as they finished with substantial edges in xG, shots and touches in the penalty area. That draw in Poland really should have been a win.

Furthermore, Celtic are probably due to start scoring more here in the Champions League, considering they have created 5.5 xG in the previous four matches, but only found the back of the net twice. The opposite can be said for Shakhtar Donetsk, who have seven goals on 3.1 xG while also being outshot 88-33 in Champions League play. Six of those seven goals have come from inside the penalty area, despite only 15 shots on target. 

Celtic has dominated the Scottish Premiership, winning 10 of 11 matches this season, and they are a far better side than what they’ve shown so far in the Champions League. They definitely looked like the better side last time vs. Shakhtar Donetsk. Therefore, playing at home, I’ll call for them to get the full three points Tuesday. 10* 

Portland was pretty atrocious down the stretch last season, losing its last 11 games. But with a healthy Damian Lillard back in the lineup they have started the 2022-23 season with three consecutive wins and covers. I don’t like their chances tonight though, in the second night of a back to back, hosting Denver.

The Nuggets had a disappointing loss at Utah to open the season, but have since rallied to beat Golden State and Oklahoma City to make it a 2-1 SU start. Laying nine points, they failed to cover against the Thunder, winning just 122-117. That was the second night of a back to back though and the team still shot 52.6% from three-point range.

The final score against the Warriors was a bit misleading as well. Denver led that game virtually the whole way and was up 18 at halftime. They maintained a double digit lead through the third quarter before Golden State made a late run.

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has turned in back to back triple doubles for the Nuggets, who are also now getting key contributions from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, both of whom missed the entirety of last season due to injuries.

This is simply a great spot to fade Portland as they are off an emotional win over the Lakers last night where they trailed by seven with under two minutes left. Lay the points. 10* 

A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields.  Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date.  It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks.
The Patriots have put up points on offense, but have yet to face a good defense this season.  They have a pair of very good running backs, a top 5 O line and a middling pass attack under either QB. They may have some success in running against the Bears, but they will not have an easy time moving the ball in the air.  The Patriots have been good at staying on the field to date.  We'll see if that continues in week seven.  Both teams have been tough to put up points against, and I think that will continue on Monday.  Both teams will also run the ball; the Bears because they don't have a pass attack, and the Patriots to avoid Chicago's strength.
I don't see this game as the sure thing the odds would suggest.  Look for a slow game, on the ground, and a lower final score.  Go with the Bears and Patriots to go under.

West Ham is coming off a loss to Liverpool, but before that the Hammers had earned at least a point in six of seven fixtures including five in a row. The last two times they’ve failed to grab a point was a pair of 1-0 losses. They’ve now gone six matches in a row without conceding more than one goal.

Bournemouth had its own rather stunning six-match unbeaten run going, but took their first loss under interim boss Gary O’Neil, falling 1-0 to Southampton last week. Any time a newly promoted side is able to find itself in the middle of the table, they should be happy. But Bournemouth has largely overachieved to this point as it ranks dead last (by a wide margin) in the Premier League in xG. 

West Ham is tied for fifth in goals allowed this season and there’s nothing phony about that as they are also top five in expected goals allowed and shots on target per 90 minutes. So it would not be a surprise if Bournemouth failed to score a goal in this match.

But don’t look for West Ham to go wild scoring either. They have scored only nine goals in 11 EPL matches to this point. Just Wolves and Nottingham Forest have scored fewer. 

Bournemouth has failed to score a goal in six of its 11 EPL matches so far, including the last one. Back in September, they actually went four matches in a row without scoring a goal. I think this promises to be a rather “drab” affair. Play the Under. 10* 

Lance McCullers Jr. has the opportunity to close out the series vs. the Yankees in 4 straight games on Sunday.  He has tossed just 8 games this season and has given up 2 or less runs in 7 of them.  He didn't face the Yankees this season, always an advantage in the early going. He threw a gem against the Mariners in the last series, a 6 inning, 2 hit shutout.  Now if he can just stay away from the bottle.

Lefty Nestor Cortes is the Yankees' last hope.  He face the Astros in June, allowing three runs over five innings, and is particularly good in Yankee Stadium.  Cortes had two solid outings in the Cleveland series, but this will be his second start on short rest. 

There is unrest in the Yankees dugout, with players questioning Boone's decisions.  The Yankees' big bats have done nothing against brilliant Astros' pitching, and a four game sweep does not seem outside of probability. Houston is still in a better position as far as pitching goes, and it is all smooth sailing under the wise hands of Dusty Baker.  McCullers has an extra day's rest. It is the Astros' bats that have done the damage; the Yankees managed just 3 hits against 6 Astros pitchers on Saturday.

Take the Astros, a small underdog, to finish the Yankees in four.

The Broncos, the NFL's whipping boys, face the surprising young Jets at home this week.  Fresh off a big victory against the Packers, the Jets are a much improved club, not just since last year, but since the beginning of the season.  They have put close to double the points on the board than the Broncos over the last three weeks, and allowed less. NY is 8th vs 30th on offense in the red zone.  Their run game has improved dramatically this season.  Their defense over the last three weeks has been a match to a tough Broncos' defense, stronger against the run, and improving against the pass.
The Broncos will be without Wilson this week, and have struggled to protect their passer this season.  Their run game is average and has dropped off since the season's start, and they have been prone to turnovers.  The Broncos' strength is their pass defense; they are 5th in yards allowed, first in yards /completion, and have held passers to a minuscule 75 rating. Did I mention very tough on passers, with a 7.09 sack %?  They may have their hands full against the Jets' run game; the Broncos have allowed 130 yards a game/L3 even with an easy ride vs the Chargers' light run offense last week.  
I am on the Jets this week.  The lines are shifting with the news of Wilson's injury. Hop on this one early.

Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven.  The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB.  The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos.  The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games.  Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed.   The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer.  It could be a tough game for him.  The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower.  Take the under on Sunday. 9*!

The Week seven matchup between Detroit and Dallas features the return of Dak Prescott.  Rush was an indifferent fill in, and while the Cowboys stepped up their run game, they have struggled to score points, depending on a very tough defense for their present 4-2 record.  They gave up 26 points against the Eagles, but are otherwise close to the top in points allowed.  They have been reasonably tough to run against, but are very hard on the pass, limiting yards and yds/attempt. They have tenacious skills in pressuring the passer and sport an avg. opposing QB rating of just 78.
The Lions, on average, allow more points than the Cowboys have yet scored this year.  Their offense was very potent until Week Six, when they put no points on the board, and saw their offense stats plummet vs the Patriots.  The Cowboys' defense is a tougher match-up, so points for the Lions may again be scarce.  The Lions' defense is worst or close to in most defensive categories.  They have given up massive rush yards and are ugly across the board against the pass.  The Lions O-line has protected Goff well this season, but this may change on Sunday
Prescott probably couldn't have picked a better game to return.  The Lions don't pressure passers well, so he'll have time to kick out the rust.  The Cowboys are favored by just less than a TD.  Take the Cowboys to win going away and cover.

The Commanders are off a rare win, and with Wentz out, have a capable and more mobile replacement in Heinecke. Neither of these two teams put up a lot of points. Washington is 29th, and has averaged just 13 points L3. The Commmanders’ defense has limited teams to 17 points on average, getting good results with strong passer pressure figures and tough red line defense. They have developed their rush attack, running more often and with better success, but haven’t been able to protect their own passer, have a high number of turnovers, and a low passer rating.

Even with Rodgers at the helm, the Packers are not getting the job done on offense. They are still pass -centric, but Rodger’s targets are not of the usual Green Bay standard, and will be in short supply due to injury today. It has been more peckers than Packers, in the bird sense of the word. They are 27th in yards/completion, and middle of the pack in passing yards, low for a pass first offense. Rodgers has been sacked about as often as anyone, and the Packers turn the ball over an unacceptable number of times.

The Packers have the league’s top pas defense, severely limiting yards, and with a sack % of 9.5. This could be more of a run-first game today, the Packers by necessity and the Commanders by design. It is hard to be bullish on this year’s Commanders, but I like their chances today. They will be very tough on a weak Packers’ O line, limiting points again. Take the Commanders with the points today

Fresh off a manager change, Aston Villa will host Brentford Sunday morning in Premier League action. It was a 3-0 loss to Fulham on Thursday that led to Steven Gerrard’s departure. That leaves Villa level with Wolves, on goal differential and points, in the race to avoid relegation.

Brentford is well above the drop zone, in 10th position in the table, and they are coming off a 0-0 draw with Chelsea Wednesday. That’s a point the Bees will gladly take as they aim for a top half finish in the league, or maybe even top seven.

Only Wolves have scored fewer goals this season than Aston Villa, who has found the back of the net just seven times in its 11 matches. It was a dreadful match against Fulham to end Gerrard’s tenure with both an own goal and a penalty conceded. Villa finished the match with just 10-men on the pitch due to a red card. 

The one saving grace for Aston Villa is that their defense has been pretty good this season.

Brentford’s away form has not been all that strong and they are just 18th in the league in shots per match. So the play is Under here as I certainly can’t see three goals being scored in this one. 9*

You’ve all heard how much trouble Mississippi State has had scoring on Alabama in the past. Over the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have been held to single digits (9 pts or less) eight different times by the Crimson Tide defense. The most points MSU scored in any of those games was 24. 

But this isn’t the same Mississippi State offense nor is it the same Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide are wounded right now after losing 52-49 at Tennessee last week. MSU comes in averaging 35.4 points per game.

The Bulldogs also arrive in Tuscaloosa off a loss, 23-13 at Kentucky last week. But in each of the previous three games, they had scored 40 or more. In all five wins this season, they’ve scored at least 39. The two losses have been a different story, but with a generous spread this week, we’re not likely to need a 40-point effort to cover.

Alabama has already been in three games that came down to the final possession, all of them decided by four points or less. Then there’s this stat: Nine of Bama’s last 15 SEC games have been decided by single digits. That’s after the previous 53 saw just 9 such games. 

Saban is being overvalued off a loss here because of what he has done in the past. These teams are a closer than the spread would indicate. I’ve got the underdog comfortably staying within three touchdowns. 10*

Game Three in NY should be the Yankees' best opportunity to win a game, but that is not to say it is guaranteed to happen.  It says much about the Astros' pitching staff that Javier was left out of the post season starting rotation.  He was a phenom down the stretch and pitched extremely well vs. The Yankees this year.  This will be his first post season start, but he threw 11 innings of solid relief in the 2021 post season, plus an unimpressive inning earlier this year.  
Cole has been a steadying influence  for the Yankees and with 2 wins to date, has pitched very well in the post season.  He also pitched well against the Astros in the regular season.  
The serIes has been all about the pitching to date, and it may continue that way. Even with a days' rest for both bullpens, you still have to  favor the Astros' pen.  They have been better than the Yankees in low total games through the season, and were 10-5 in road low total games. Even on the road and in Yankee Stadium, I can't count the Astros out.  An okay run line is available for Saturday.  Take the Astro at + 1 1/2.

Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game.

UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game.

But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. 

Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye.

Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8*

Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games.

Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! 

The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities.

LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. 

LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8*

The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation.

The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here.

In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. 

Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. 

Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. 

Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8*

Chelsea and Manchester United lock horns in the biggest Premier League match on Saturday. This is a top five battle with resurgent Chelsea having gone unbeaten over their last matches (EPL + Champions League) and Man U doing the same over their last five. I like the Under today.

Key to Chelsea’s resurgence is they’ve gotten back to being stingy when it comes to conceding goals. Over the last five matches, the Blues haven’t conceded a single time and that includes a pair of wins over AC Milan in the Champions League. However, an attempt to make it six straight wins on the pitch was thwarted midweek when Chelsea had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Brentford.

Manchester United is coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Tottenham and they’ve now gone three straight matches without conceding a goal. However, they too recently played a goalless draw, last weekend against Newcastle United. 

So goals should be scarce in today’s fixture at Stamford Bridge. Both times these teams played last season, it ended in a 1-1 draw. That makes it four straight draws between the two storied sides. 

Chelsea has declined a bit offensively under Potter, creating fewer expected goals on target than before his arrival. With neither side having conceded anything of late, Under is the clear play here. 10* 

Cincinnati is 5-1 all-time vs. SMU and has won all three meetings here in Dallas. With those six games averaging just 53 points, the Under is a perfect 6-0. 

Because of injuries, this could be another low-scoring affair between these teams. But despite being off a bye, Cincinnati, who became the first ever “Group of Five” team to make the College Football Playoff last January, is far more banged up than SMU is entering Saturday.

QB Bryant is dealing with a concussion and may not play. WR Scott is also injured. RB Corey Kiner missed the last game and on the defensive side, LB Pace was “dinged up” after facing USF. 

Now after a season-opening loss at Arkansas, the Bearcats have climbed back into the Top 25 with five consecutive victories. But while four of those have come by double-digits, they’ve been far from dominant. 

In each of the last two games, the Cincy defense has needed a fourth down stop, deep in their own territory, to hold on for the victory. Against USF, who isn’t a good team, the Bearcats were actually trailing in the 4th quarter as a 26.5-point favorite. They were also able to pull away late against Indiana and Miami OH, the latter playing with a backup QB, in games that were closer than the final scores indicated.

Meanwhile, SMU suffered the ultimate “backdoor cover” last Friday against Navy, allowing a TD with just nine seconds left. The Mustangs still won mind you, 40-34, but as 12.5-point favorites it marked the fifth straight game where they failed to cover. 

The fact Cincinnati is off a bye means less with SMU having an extra day to prepare as well. 

The Bearcats have been very lucky so far in that their opponents are a FBS-worst 1 for 11 on fourth down attempts. SMU’s opponents are 11 of 18 on 4th down attempts. That “luck” is probably due to change.

Remember that Cincinnati lost three defensive backs from last year’s CFP squad to the NFL. SMU QB Mordecai is 11th in the FBS in passing yards and should exploit this secondary with or without WR Rice (missed practice on Wednesday).

Finally, Luke Fickell is just 7-12-1 on the road vs. fellow AAC teams. That includes 3-10 ATS as a favorite. Take the points. 10*

The Celtics put all the distractions surrounding Ime Udoka behind them and won on Opening Night, defeating the 76ers 126-117 as a five-point favorite. They shot 56.1% from the field and got 35 point games from both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It was a very nice start to the season for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs.

Can’t say the same for Miami, however, as the Heat were beaten 116-108 by a Chicago team that was a 7.5-point underdog. The thing is, Miami didn’t even play that poorly, aside from committing 19 turnovers. They just had no answer for DeMar DeRozan. 

Now they are set to face a much tougher opponent. Even at home, this short number is not enough for me to be interested in the Heat. Will Boston shoot as well as it did in the opener? Maybe not, but I still expect them to win this game. So I’m laying the points.

These teams played a seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals back in May. The Celtics have covered the number in five of their last six visits to Miami.

Malcolm Brogdon showed he can be a nice third scoring option for Boston as he went for 16 in the opener. The Celtics also did a good job defensively in the second half, limiting the 76ers to only 54 points. Miami will only go as far as Jimmy Butler carries them. Kyle Lowry was a no-show in the first game, shooting 1 of 7 including 0 of 5 from three. 10* 

It is Musgrove on the road vs Suarez in Game Three of the series. Musgrove has put his mid-season woes aside, pitched well down the stretch, and now has a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings in 3 post season starts. The Phillies got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings earlier in the season, but the Mets and Dodgers managed just a .152 ERA against him in his recent appearances.

Rangers Suarez starts for the Phillies. Suarez wasn’t as dominant this year, finishing at 10-7, with a 3.67 ERA, and struggled in his last regular season start, giving up 6 runs in 3 innings. He hs appeared once in the post season, pitching well but lasting only into the 4th inning. Given the packed nature of the series, the Phillies will need more innings out of Suarez today.

Both teams have been swatting the long ball in the post season; the Padres have a dozen and the Phillies, nine. The Padres have the better options once the starter is removed. I still believe the Phillies’ pen will come back to haunt them, starting today. I am on the Padres. They hit the Phillies’ pitchers especially hard yesterday, and it looks like the offense is starting to realize its full potential. Look for Musgrove to silence the crowd and the Padres to steal this game.

Temple was flat out embarrassed last Thursday night, losing at UCF by a score of 70-13. To say that was a shockingly bad performance by the Owls defense might be the understatement of the century. Consider that in the first five games, they’d surrendered less than 15 points/game! Luckily for this week, Temple faces a far less potent offense. 

Tulsa also got its doors blown off in its last game, losing at Navy 53-21. It was the third straight loss for the Golden Hurricane, whose only FBS win this season has been by three points over Northern Illinois. 

The Tulsa defense lost a lot from a season ago, namely nine starters and the coordinator. So it’s not a surprise to see them struggling on that side of the ball. As for Temple, I’m expecting a big bounce back from their previously stout defensive unit, which had been Top 15 in the country in yards per play allowed.

Now, led by QB EJ Warner (the son of Kurt), the Temple offense has been shaky to say the least. But Tulsa would have scored far fewer points themselves this season if not for tremendous red zone efficiency. Moving forward, the Golden Hurricane probably won’t be able to continue scoring TDs inside the 20 at the same rate they have been. 

I just don’t think that Tulsa is the kind of team that can cover a spread like this on the road. They are 0-3 ATS as favorites vs. FBS teams this season with two outright losses. Temple has the better ATS record on Friday nights through the years and is being undervalued in this spot because of the blowout loss it suffered last week. Take the points. 9*

The Saints and Cardinals, a pair of 2-4 underachievers, meet in Arizona in week 7. The Cardinals’ inability to score against a normally weak Seahawks defense last week was a bit of a surprise, although they are just 22nd in points scored, but no Tds against Seattle? The Saints put up 39 the week before. The Cardinals get Hopkins back, but lose Brown at the same time. Murray’s passer rating has averaged in the 80s and hit 64 last week. He did run well, but overall the Cardinals rush attack is exactly average.

The Saint have not struggled to score points this year, it is preventing them that has been the problem, with the 29th points allowed so far this season. This from a team defense that was expected to be top ten this year. The Saints don’t pressure passers much, but have had 13 sacks to date, and they got to Burrows 3 times last week. Arizona has struggled to protect Murray in the last three games, culminating in a 6 sack game in week 6. The Saints will need to be tougher on him and cause a few turnovers; those have been few a nd far between.

The Saints put up monster numbers with the run last week. Kamara has been hot but he isn’t their only option. They would be wise to stick to the running game. The pass attack was very poor last week. It is still unknown who will start on Thursday, but it probably won’t make that much difference.

The Cardinals have struggled at home, and far more resemble the late 2021 team than the early one. Hopkins is a gain but is not going to be a one-person savior of the Cardinals’ problem offense. The Saints still have injury issues on offense but have managed to put up points anyway. Look for them to win or keep this game close. Take the Saints +1 ½.

The Astros are up a game against the Yankees and send out left-hander Valdez today. Valdez struggled in two of his last 3 regular season starts before bouncing back with a five inning shut-out vs the Phillies. He faced the Yankees once this season, giving up three runs over 6 innings. Valdez held the Mariners to 2 runs over 5+ innings in his post season start, but struggled big time in 2021 post season.

Severino was tough down the stretch, giving up just 3 runs over 16 innings in his last three starts. He faced the Astros twice this season allowing 3 and 2 runs in a pair of 6 inning starts. He gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5+ innings to the Guardians in his post season start this year.

The Astros are hitting reasonably well, especially for power. The Yankees’ bats are underachieving to date but were very tough on left-handers this year. I lost (barely) on the over yesterday, but am back with it today. I expect both teams’ very potent offenses to have some success. Wager on the over.

The 76ers lost by nine up in Boston Tuesday, 126-117. They got solid contributions from James Harden and Joel Embiid, who combined for 61 points and 23 rebounds. Harden also had seven assists and went 12 for 12 from the FT line. But the rest of the team was “persona non grata” as the bench produced only 11 points.

At home, we should expect a far greater contribution from the Sixers’ supporting cast. Looking back, it was basically one bad quarter (the third) that did the team in against Boston. They outscored the Celtics (by one point) over the other three quarters.

This will be Milwaukee’s first game after going 0-5 in the preseason. Kris Middleton, their second best player, is out. That puts added pressure on Giannis Antetokounmpo. It wouldn’t be unlike the former MVP to step up, but he can’t do it all by himself and this is one of the top teams from the East that the Bucks are facing tonight.

Tuesday night saw Philadelphia get outscored on fastbreak points 24-2. That will not happen again. I also expect a better defensive effort after allowing the Celtics to shoot 56% from the floor. 10*

The Sixers have been very good at home the last two seasons, winning 61 of 90 games. Most of that is without Harden. Right now, they are a deeper (and better) team than the Bucks. Lay the points. 10*

New Orleans got off to a horrible start last year, but quickly turned things around and even earned the 8-seed by virtue of winning two games in the Play-In Tournament. They did so despite not getting a single game out of Zion Williamson, who is now back healthy and ready to start the 2022-23 campaign.

Brooklyn’s playoff stay was actually shorter than that of the Pelicans. The Nets were swept in the first round by Boston, ending a very disappointing run which saw Kyrie Irving miss a number of games. Kevin Durant wanted out in the offseason, but he and Irving are both set to return. So is Ben Simmons after an embarrassing end to the playoffs where he DNP in Game 4. 

I think things are going to get worse before they get better for Brooklyn. Durant wanted the coach and GM fired, but neither were and now everyone has to co-exist. We also don’t know how well Durant and Irving will play together.

The Pelicans have a solid starting five with Williamson back as CJ McCollum was a huge acquisition for this team last year. 

New Orleans can definitely score. They averaged 116.7 points over their final 26 regular season games, making them all the more enticing as an underdog in this spot. Grab the points. 8*

The two bye teams left standing meet in Houston for game 1 of the ALCS . The Astros are well rested, facing a tired Yankees team, and will start Verlander on regular rest. Verlander was uncharacteristically poor in his divisional start, lasting just 4 innings and giving up 6 runs. His previous start was a shut-out of the Phillies, and he was great down the stretch.

Tallon starts for the Yankees. He had a good September at 2-1, 3.23 ERA, but did give up 6 runs in 5+ innings against the Astros in June. He was also hit very hard in a bullpen appearance in post season action.

These are two hard-hitting offenses, and while they haven’t broken out in the play-offs, the total is still “pair of aces” low. I ‘m not betting on Taillon on Wednesday, and would like to see a little more of Verlander before counting on him for his usual stuff. The Astros will likely have multiple innings against a hard-worked and injury-ridden bullpen. The Yankees weren’t much for average in the post season, but have 9 home runs to date. Take the Yankees and Astros to go over in game one.

It has been a wild season for Appalachian State, who has won on a Hail Mary (Troy) and upset Texas A&M in College Station. But they’ve also come up just short after a wild fourth quarter vs. North Carolina and blew a 28-3 lead to James Madison. But fair to say the Mountaineers’ nadir came two Saturdays ago when they were upset at Texas State.

ASU was a 19-point favorite heading into San Marcos, but lost 36-24 with a head-scratching performance that saw them down by as many as 27 at one point. A pick-six by Texas State early in the second half all but sealed the result there. 

Despite outgaining Texas State, it ended up being App State’s second-lowest scoring game of the year. This is an offense that is averaging 35.2 points/game overall and 42.5 at home. I don’t think they’ll have any problems scoring on Georgia State tonight.

Georgia State began the year 0-4 with three of the losses coming at home. But the Pathers have turned it around with back to back wins, beating Army 31-14 and rival Georgia Southern 41-33. Since the opener against South Carolina, they’ve scored an average of 33 points/game.

The Over is a combined 7-5 for these teams in 2022 and has hit in three of the last four meetings. All three Overs saw 61 or more total points scored. Both these teams run the ball well and neither is particularly great defensively. I think this number is too low. Take the Over

It is rather stunning to see that Bournemouth has gone unbeaten in six straight matches following the manager change. The three results prior to the change saw the Cherries outscored 16-0 (by Man City, Arsenal & Liverpool) and while the season was still young, relegation looked inevitable. But two wins and four draws have this side, rather shockingly, 12th in the Premier League table!

As for Southampton, they do find themselves in the relegation zone, currently in 18th place after five straight matches without a win. The Saints did earn a point over the weekend, drawing 1-1 with West Ham, but only Bournemouth and Leicester City have worse goal differentials in the league.

Even with recent form being very different for the respective sides here, I still think it’s fair to say these are two of the weaker teams in the Premier League. I’m looking to the Under for Wednesday’s fixture. Is it concerning that Southampton has not kept a clean sheet in 16 consecutive matches, going back to last season? Yes. But the Saints have also scored only twice across their last five matches.

Plus, Bournemouth is dead last in xG among EPL teams, right below Southampton. I just don’t see a lot of goal scoring in this one.

Six times Bournemouth has been held to 1 or 0 goals this season. So coming off two straight two-goal efforts, regression is likely. Southampton has scored 1 or 0 goals in six of their last seven fixtures. Under is the call here. 10* 

The Lakers are obviously a much different team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. Both will be ready to go Tuesday night in the series opener vs. Golden State. Thus I’m taking the points.

In the 108 regular season games that James and Davis have played together, the Lakers have gone 75-33 straight up, a win percentage of .690. Only the Suns had a win percentage higher than .690 last season.

While James and Davis should be happy to see one another tonight, I don’t know how the Warriors can possibly navigate the situation with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Additionally, coach Steve Kerr has openly questioned his own team’s conditioning. Yesterday he was quoted as saying the starters are not ready to play 30+ minutes. That’s troublesome.

We know that the Lakers won’t have Dennis Schroeder and Russell Westbrook may not play either. Still, plus the points, I believe they are the play. A motivated James and Davis should be enough to cover this spread.

The Lakers massively underachieved last season and will be ready to play. Golden State is likely to be more concerned with the pregame ring ceremony and thus expect a flat start from them. 10*

The Phillies have gone 5-1 this postseason, eliminating the Cardinals in two games and the Braves in four. The Padres are 5-2 since the playoffs began, needing three games to eliminate the Mets before shocking the Dodgers in four. Neither club was expected to get this far. So the question is who wins Game 1 of the NLCS?

I like the Phillies tonight, behind Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been excellent this entire season, but especially over the last month where he’s allowed only four runs over his previous five starts. Only one start since the All-Star Break has seen Wheeler give up more than five hits. He’s also allowed only one home run over his last six starts.

Pitching against the Padres back in May, Wheeler went seven innings, allowed only four hits and didn’t give up a run. That was his one and only start against SD this year, but he is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in his career against them.

Yu Darvish also pitched in that series back in May. He too turned in seven scoreless frames. But then he faced the Phillies again in June and allowed three runs on seven hits. What has me worried about Darvish in this spot is the fact he’s already allowed four home runs in his two postseason starts. He’s very lucky that they were all solo shots and no more runs have been allowed. Darvish has now allowed at least one HR in four consecutive outings. 

I think the Phillies are the better team and have the better starting pitcher in this matchup. So I’ll back them in Game 1. 10*