The set-up: The sub-way series was postponed a day due to inclement weather. Now the Mets and Yanks will play a double-header, with Zack Wheeler and Masahiro Tanaka getting the call in Game 1 and then Jason Vargas and James Paxton going in the second. This is a play on the “over” in Game 2. The Mets come into the day having won 12 of their last 20. The Yanks won’t be lacking for motivation after going 2-5 in their last seven. 

The pitchers: Vargas (2-3, 3.57 ERA) has been exceptional of late, but regression seems imminent in my opinion. Note as well that he’s a terrible 0-7 with a 6.84 ERA in 11 appearances vs. the Yankees. 

Paxton (3-2, 2.11) is making his third start since coming off the IL after missing three weeks with a knee injury. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in three of four interleague games already, while the Yanks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All signs point to a slugfest in the night game.

NY Yankees/NY Mets OVER

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The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The hard-hitting visiting side sends perhaps the World’s best pitcher right now to the mound for this one, as the Dodgers’ Hyun Jin Ryu gets ready to square off against rookie right-hander Griffin Canning.

The pitchers: Ryu (9-1, 1.35 ERA) has done well in this interleague matchup throughout his career going by going 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in three career starts vs. them. Note that since his lone loss Ryu has gone 7-0 with a 0.75 ERA. 

Canning (2-2, 3.52) takes the mound for a team which has lost six of its past ten. Canning comes off a decent outing, giving up our runs over six innings vs. the A’s, striking out eight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are already 12-6 (+3.5 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while the Angels are just 8-15 this season as an underdog. Lay the price with confidence.

LA Dodgers

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The setup: Whether KD plays or not tonight, I like the Warriors to postpone this series at least one more game after tonight. The Warriors have been decimated by injury during the playoffs and it finally caught up to them in the Finals. Despite that though, with Stephen Curry an Klay Thompson both given a green light for the defending champs, then GS has much more than just a puncher chance in this one. So far Toronto has been tight defensively, but the team is in unchartered territory here. I think the Raptors will struggle to put away the Warriors in this crucial spot. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up great for the underdog tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in revenging two straight straight up losses to an opponent (including 2-0 ATS this year), while Toronto is only 2-3 ATS this season after two or more straight road wins by ten points or more. Grab as many points as you can.

Golden State Warriors

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The set-up: There’s no question that this has been a difficult series to predict. Boston feels it got robbed in Game 5, so clearly the visitors won’t be lacking for motivation here as they try to stave off elimination and push the Stanley Cup Final to a decisive Game 7. Boston doesn’t lack the talent or the experience in this position. St. Louis has plenty of talent clearly, but it’s in unchartered territory and I think that matters here. Honestly, it wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either team to win, but I think that Boston’s experience wins the day in the end. 

The pick: Note as well that the Bruins are already 4-0 (+4.2 units) this year when trailing in a playoff series, while the Blues are just 3-4 (-2.4 units) when leading in a playoff series. I think the writing is on the wall and an epic Game 7 is in the cards.

Boston Bruins

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The set-up: The Red Sox look to salvage the final game of this four game series and even it up. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Blake Snell, while the home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Snell (3-5, 3.68 ERA) was untouchable last year for the most part, but this season it’s been quite the opposite. Snell enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings of work.

Rodriguez (6-3, 4.88) has had difficulty with TB in the past, but he enters on top form, having gone 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA over his last ten starts, including allowing only two runs over seven frames in a win over the Royals on Tuesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TB is now just 10-11 (-3.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records, while Boston is 73-44 (+8.8 units) the last two years in all “day” games. I’m laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs.

10* RL BEST IN SHOW

The set-up: Washington will be eager to return to form here. It came to San Diego on a 9-2 run, but the Padres have rallied in the late innings over the first two games of this series, including a 5-4 walk off win last night. Enough is enough! With their “ace” Max Scherzer going tonight, I think the visitors bounce back in Game 3. The home side counters with Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) has a 3-2, 2.37 ERA record over ten starts vs. the Padres. 

Lauer (5-4, 4.18) has been sharp of late and he’s had decent success vs. the Nationals throughout his career, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 4-1 (+3 units) this season after having lost six or seven of its last eight, while San Diego is still just 12-29 (-12 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I expect Scherzer and the focused Nationals to find a way to get the job done here. 

Washington Nationals

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The set-up: This has been a very entertaining series. Golden State has its hands full in this series, as the Raptors are healthy and fearless and arguably have the best player in the World in Kawhi Leonard on their team. Klay Thompson didn’t play for the Warriors in Game 3, but he’ll be back in the line-up tonight and that definitely changes things for Stephen Curry and the defending champs. Kevin Durant is not expected to play for Golden State, but the Warriors rolled over the Blazers in four games with this exact line-up. I think this one definitely sets up as more of a shootout than a defensive “chess match.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten road playoff games following a road playoff win, while Golden State has seen the total soar over in eight of its last 12 home playoff games following a home playoff loss. This number is low, play the over.

GSW/Raps OVER

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The set-up: The month long competition finally gets underway for the Women. South Korea faces off against Host France, which is one of the favorites to win the entire thing. Both teams are in Group A and are joined by Norway and Nigeria. The French are going to want to get out to a resounding start in front of the home town crowd, while the visitors know they’ll have to match pace. I think overall from a “situational” stand point that this one definitely sets up great as more of a higher-scoring “shootout,” than a defensive “chess match.” 

The pick: France is loaded with talent, with seven players apart of the Champions League winner Lyon (keep your eyes on Eugenie Le Sommer, who has 223 goals in 249 games for Lyon.) I think the underdog Koreans will have their chance to score vs. this aggressive French team. This number is low.

France/Korea OVER

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The set-up: The Cardinals sit 2.5 games back of the Cubs to open this series. These teams met a week ago in St. Louis and the Cardinals managed to sweep all three games. It’s “payback” time now that the Cubs are at Wrigley though. The home side goes with Cole Hamels, who took a hard-luck loss vs. St. Louis last week by allowing one unearned run and two hits over seven innings, while the visitors counter with Miles Mikolas.

The pitchers: Mikolas (4-5, 4.41) has done well against the Cubs throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in seven career appearances. 

Hamels (4-3, 3.62) is 4-6 with a sharp 2.48 ERA in 15 career games vs. St. Louis. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a three-game sweep vs. a division opponent, while St. Louis is just 10-15 (-5.3 units) on the road this season. I like Chicago to avenge last week’s sweep in St. Louis by taking Game 1 easily. Lay the price.

10* CUBS

The set-up: Enough is enough! After starting 10-31, the Marlins are now 13-5 after taking the first two games of this series by a combined score of 24-3 (includes 16-0 win on Tuesday.) I think Caleb Smith and the visiting side finally come back down to Earth on Thursday afternoon though and I look for the hungry Freddy Peralta to take advantage. 

The pitchers: Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA) has been in a “free fall” over the last month, going 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA over his past four starts, after starting 13-5 with a 1.99 ERA. 

Peralta (2-2, 5.68) for whatever reason has “feasted” in the month of June, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings, allowing only three hits to go along with a sharp 17-1 strikeout to walk ratio (is 6-6 with a 4.72 ERA in all other months combined.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Miami is just 4-11 (-4.9 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Milwaukee is 71-55 (+20.3 units) the L2 years after having lost two of its last three games. I think the revenge minded and thoroughly humbled home side lays everything on the line this afternoon and finds a way to salvage the finale. Lay the price.

10* Milwaukee

The set-up: Detroit managed to pull of the major upset in Game 1 of this three game series last night, but I think an immediate return to mediocrity is in store on Wednesday. The revenge-minded visiting side hands the ball to Charlie Morton, while the home side counters with Spencer Turnbull. 

The pitchers: Morton (6-0, 2.54 ERA) has won three of his past four starts for his team. Most recently he held the hard-hitting Twins to two runs over seven innings while also striking out six.

Turnbull (3-4, 2.84) comes in off a win over the Braves on Friday, giving up two runs over six innings.

The pick: Note that Tampa is still 18-8 on the road this year and 21-9 in all “night” games. And note the Detroit is still only 3-11 as a home underdog and just 9-17 at home overall. Previous to yesterday’s win the Tigers had lost ten straight at home. Look for Tampa to get back on track after yesterday’s setback.

TB Rays

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BONUS:

The set-up: Momentum. In sports it can be a very real, almost tangible thing. Even without Kevin Durant and Kevin Mooney, I think the Warriors are going to ride the wave of emotion at home and come out “guns a blazing” in the first half of Game 3. Toronto dominated in Game 1 and it appeared as if it would roll to another victory in Game 2, but then the second half started. Golden State made some big adjustments and it would go on to easily destroy the Raptors in the second half. And now I think that the defending champs carry that momentum over at home (at least in the first half!) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight playoff games as an underdog in the five to 10.5 points range, while Golden State is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 playoff games as a favorite in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price and expect the home side to roll to a SU victory in the first half.

Golden State Warriors (1st Half Moneyline)

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The set-up: After playing 27 games in 27 days, the Pirates had a day off yesterday. I think Pittsburgh stumbles in its first game back in what I feel is an even bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors go with Max Fried, while the home side counters with Steven Brault. 

The pitchers: Fried (7-3, 3.19 ERA) has made 11 starts this year and he’s thrown seven quality efforts in that span. 

Brault (2-1, 5.87) is being forced into the starting rotation out of necessity. Over 19 career big league starts he’s 3-4 with a 4.97 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Pirates are just 2-6 in their last eight home games following a day off. I like Fried to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay it.

Atlanta Braves

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The set-up: Both teams lost their final group games, but each did enough to advance. Argentina had a major letdown vs. South Korea, so clearly it’s not going to be taking anything for granted here after rolling through the first two games. Note that before the loss to the South Koreans Argentina beat Portugal 2-0, before hammering South Africa 5-2. Mali has posted seven goals over three games, but the African side has yet to post a clean sheet, which doesn’t bode well facing this offensive juggernaut in Argentina. 

The pick: I think when focused on the task at hand, the Argentinian’s depth at the front end will prove to be too much for Mali to keep up with down the stretch. All things considered, a very fair price in my estimation. Lay it.

Argentina

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The set-up: Who could have predicted that Boston and St. Louis would be playing in the Stanley Cup Final?! These teams have been riding red hot goaltending over the second half of the season and before this series even started, I said that whichever of these incredibly talented netminders remained hot in the Finals, would end up being the victor once it was all said and done. Tuukka Rask has so far gotten the better of Jordan Binnington, but with their backs against the wall and looking to avoid a 3-1 hole before heading back to Boston, I believe the Blues “clamp down” on the defensive end in Game 4. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Boston has seen the total go under in five of six already this season when leading in a playoff series, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in five of its last six when trailing in a playoff series. This number is high.

St Louis Blues/Boston Bruins UNDER

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The set-up: There was an over night pitching change for the Angels in this one, which makes my play on Chicago even stronger in my opinion. The visitor hand the ball to Cam Bedrosian, while the home side counters with Jon Lester (note that this is a make-up game from a postponed contest from April.

The pitchers: Bedrosian (2-3, 3.08 ERA) comes out of the bullpen to make this difficult spot start; note that he’s 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA on the road.

Lester (3-4, 3.59) opened the year on fire, but he’ll be looking to rebound after allowing a season-high seven earned runs over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Tuesday. 

The pick: After winning two straight, I think the Angels take a step back in this NL format/ballpark. And after getting swept in three straight in St. Louis over the weekend, I look for the home side (and Lester) to come in extremely focused. Everything points to a rout in my opinion. 

Chicago Cubs

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The set-up: Golden State finally lost a game without Kevin Durant in the line-up and if its not careful here, it’s going to find itself in a 2-0 hole before heading back to Golden State. Durant isn’t expected in the line-up today either, but I still think that the experience that the Warriors bring to the table will help them earn a split North of the border. Toronto got a super human effort from Paskal Sikiam in Game 1 and I definitely am not expecting “lightning to strike twice” for the Raptors. I believe Steve Kerr makes the necessary adjustments to help his team even this series before heading home. 

The pick: Note as well that Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on two days rest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

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The set-up: Boston will be desperate to avoid the three-game series sweep. New York continues to get production at the plate despite several key injuries to its sluggers. While David Price has historically struggled vs. New York, he comes into this contest “firing on all cylinders” and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. CC Sabathia has enjoyed plenty of success vs. Boston and I think the veteran will also have a big night Sunday.

The pitchers: Price (2-2 2.83 ERA) is 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA over his last four starts. 

Sabathia (3-1, 3.48) is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. the Red Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 20 this year vs. teams with winning records, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten vs. left-handed starters. I think this number is slightly high.

Red Sox/Yanks under

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: Boston dominated Game 1, but then came out flat in Game 2. The Blues’ definitely fell apart in Game 1, but they rebounded large in Game 2. These are two evenly matched clubs, but I think the Bruins’ superior offense will pull through for them in Game 3. The Bruins lost Game 2 in OT, so if the bounces had gone their way, they could in fact already be up 2-0 here. The Blues are “lucky” in my estimation. 

The pick: Boston’s power-play continues to produce, scoring for a sixth straight game. Note that the Blues’ received bad news after Game 2 when Oskar Sundqvist was suspended for one game for an illegal hit to Matt Grzelcyk. Boston is 15-7 (+4.8 units) this year when playing with two days rest. Great value on the visitors in Game 3.

Boston Bruins

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The set-up: The Red Bulls come in off a win at Cincinnati in their last matchup, while Real Salt Lake lost its last road trip to Montreal. The Bulls are tough at home as well, unbeaten in four straight and in 15 of their last 20. Real on the other hand has lost seven of its last 12 overall and five of its last seven on the road. 

The pick: Note that the home team has won five straight in this series. With the home side pushing the pace, I’m expecting a decisive victory in regulation.

New York Red Bulls

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The set-up: Two veteran hurlers who have seen better days go head to head in this one and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to easily eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey, while the home side counters with Lance Lynn. 

The pitchers: Decent starts have been few and far between for Bailey (4-5, 5.79 ERA) over the last couple of years, who finished 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA last season. It’s difficult to point out any positives about Bailey as he continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 6.16 ERA on the road. 

Lynn (6-4, 4.66) like his count part has looked decent one game, only to struggle in the next. Note that he has a terrible 6.01 ERA at home so far this year. 

The pick: Lynn’s been decent over the last month, including vs. the Royals, but overall he still owns a rather poor 5.01 ERA over eight career starts vs. them. The Rangers evened this series with yesterday’s lower-scoring 6-2 win, so with each team pressing for the series victory, I expect these volatile starters to get the hook early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* KC/Tex Over

The set-up: Boston’s been playing a lot better after a slow start, but it has a lot of work to do to catch up to the surging Yankees. Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale, like his team, also started slow, but he’s sure turned things around over the last three weeks. I believe that momentum carries over here in this important early division battle. The home side goes with the volatile JA Happ. 

The pitchers: Sale (1-6, 4.19 ERA) is 1-1 with a 2.23 ERA over his last five starts and he’s posted a 2.44 ERA over his last seven starts. Sale was roughed up by the Yanks in early April, so he’ll be extra motivated here as well to atone for that “brain fart.” Also note that he’s 6-5 with a 1.87 ERA over 18 career regular season appearances vs. New York.

Happ (4-3, 5.09) is 3-0 with a sub-par 5.40 ERA over his last three starts. Happ’s enjoyed success vs. the Red Sox in the past, but I think his inconsistent 2019 season continues vs. this hungry Red Sox side. 

The pick: I like Sale to continue his progression and I’m basing this pick primarily on that happening. 

Boston Red Sox

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The set-up: South Korea is in dire straights here after losing Portugal in its opener. The South Koreans then followed that up with a slim victory over South Africa. The South Koreans needs an outright win to keep their hopes alive, but I don’t think it’s going to happen vs. the surging Argentina side. Argentina has won its first two matches and it’ll look to sweep the board in the group stage with another convincing effort here. 

The pick: The Argentinian offense is “firing on all cylinders” right now, having produced seven goals over the first two games. The South American countries put a huge focus on the U20 leagues and it’s paying huge dividends for the Argentinians this year. Expect Argentina to win in regulation time. I like the South Americans to put the South Koreans out of their misery.

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: The stage is set for the U20 USA team to advance to the second round after a crucial win over Nigeria. Even a single point would likely be enough to assure it a third place/position in the knock-out round. But the Americans will clearly be looking to push the pace and to run up the score here vs. a weak Qatar team. Qatar has nothing to lose, except another game. The underdogs will be desperate to get off the schneid, having been blanked from the scoresheet over the first two games.

The pick: From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as more of a wide-open “shootout.” This number is low.

USA/Qatar OVER

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The set-up: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. St. Louis is struggling with consistency at the plate and it’s just 7-17 in the month of May, which doesn’t bode well for Genesis Cabrera, making his major league debut for the visitors today. Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola though comes into this one on top form after a slow start and I look for him to deliver the goods in this favorable spot as well.

The pitchers: Cabrera (0-0, 0.00 ERA) was 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis: "The reports we've gotten from Memphis have been very positive," Cardinals manager Mike Shildt assessed last night. "We trust our player development group and our front office and that was the recommendation and we follow it."

Nola (5-0, 4.53) has a 2.76 ERA over his last six starts, striking out 18 over his last 11 1/3’s frames of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is now just 9-13 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 18-10 at home. 

Philadelphia Phillies

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The set-up: The Mexico U20 team has lost five straight. Ecuador U20 sees it two wins, two draws and a loss in its last five. The Mexicans have conceded 2-plus goals in their last matches across all competitions. Ecuador is the South American champion and it enters off a 1-1 draw with a strong Japan team. Edcuador then went to a draw with Italy, meaning that a victory today is crucial to advance. Ecuador has to win, hope Japan loses and overturn a four-goals deficit in the goal difference to earn direct qualification into the knockout rounds. Mexico lost to Italy in its opening round, only to then fall 3-0 to Japan in Gdynia. 

The pick: Ecuador has been unlucky, as it’s already had a penalty shot saved in each match so far. Note that it only had ten men playing in the draw vs. Italy as well. With the goal differential being a point of concern, I look for Ecuador to finally get off the schneid here with a blowout performance. Lay the price.

Ecuador

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The set-up: If you’re watching and wagering on this contest, then the story lines and strengths/weaknesses of each side is well known to this point. St. Louis has been one of the hottest teams in the second half of the season, riding the play of red hot rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington. The Bruins are loaded with talent and experience and they got “hot” at the right time at the end of the season. Boston has an equally adept net minder in Tuukka Rask. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, but I think that the home ice advantage can’t be overlooked in Game 1. 

The pick: St. Louis was 28-22 on the road, averaging 2.84 goals and allowing 2.40 in those contests. Boston is 35-15 at home, averaging 3.42 goals and allowing 2.40 in those contests. I expect the Bruins to ride the wave of emotion and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Boston Bruins

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The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this interleague matchup on Monday night and in my opinion, I think runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels, while the home side counters with Gerritt Cole. 

The pitchers: Hamels (4-0, 3.38 ERA) is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 16 K’s over his last 16 innings of work. 

Cole (4-5, 4.11) hasn’t been at his best over the last weeks, but he still leads the majors in strikeouts with 100 and in strikeout rate at 37.7 percent. He is also 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Cubs. 

The pick: Many Astros’ sluggers are on the IL right now, including Aledmys Diaz, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Max Stassi. I think the stage is set for these starters to “steal the show.” This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros UNDER

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The set-up: Derek Fisher is the new head coach of the LA Sparks. LA though has to start the season without star Candace Parker, who is on the IL for the next five weeks. Nneka Ogwumike is an MVP and she’s going to be leaned upon heavily here. The Aces though have title hopes in their eyes this season after acquiring Liz Cambage in the off-season. Las Vegas is loaded with talent and Cambage won’t be playing here, but I still think that talented guards Kayla McBride, Kelsey Plum and rookie Jackie Young will have more than enough to carry the load. 

The pick: With a packed house, I think this young Aces team takes it to LA in a statement situation. Play the home side on the money-line.

Las Vegas Aces (Moneyline)

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The set-up: The Yanks took both games of yesterday’s double-header, continuing a trend of beating up on “lesser” competition, after having already swept at Baltimore. New York is the hottest hitting team in baseball and I don’t see anything changing on Sunday in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: German (9-1, 2.60 ERA) is mowing through the competition this year and he’s been particularly effective in this position all season, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA in all “day” games.

Duffy (3-1, 3.45) has been decent early after struggling to a 8-12, 4.88 ERA record last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New York is a perfect 9-0 this year already as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while KC is just 5-13 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. 

NY Yankees

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The set-up: After the Milwaukee Bucks went up 2-0, many thought that Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors’ magical run was finished. But Toronto made adjustments when the series shifted North of the border and now the Raptors find themselves in the drivers seat with a chance to end it at home in Game 6. Leonard has been phenomenal defensively on Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo and I think the Milwaukee forward will once again have his hands full here in this difficult road arena. Also note that Bucks’ shooter Nikola Mirotic is just 6 for 31 from range in this series. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 road games following back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten home games following B2B SU/ATS playoff victories. The Bucks have been no slouches defensively either in this series. Game 6 has the feel of an all out war from start to finish. This number is high.

Toronto Raptors/Milwaukee Bucks UNDER

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The set-up: The Diamondbacks broke out of their slump in a big way last night by destroying the Giants 18-2. Clearly the last thing Arizona can do is sit back and relax though as it’ll now look to carry that momentum over into another favorable matchup. The Giants can’t be happy after getting shellacked either. Two confirmed “gas cans” go head to head in this one and in my opinion, this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Clarke, while the home side counters with Andrew Suarez. 

The pitchers: Clarke (0-1, 2.00 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. This will be his second start of his career. 

Suarez (0-1, 4.50) gave up three runs and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. This is his second start of the season as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over in 13 of 20 vs. the division already this season, while San Fran has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this year after a loss by four runs or more. This number is much to low in my opinion.

Arizona Dbacks/San Francisco Giants OVER

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The set-up: I think this one highly favors the home side. The Reds send the volatile Anthony DeSclafani to the hill, while the Cubs hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks. 

The pitchers: DeSclafani (2-2, 4.60 ERA) gave up three home runs and lasted only four inning for a second consecutive start in a loss to the Dodgers in his last outing. Over his previous two starts DeSclafani has now been shelled for eight runs off 14 hits, including four dingers.

Hendricks (4-4, 3.21) has gone 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA over his last 42 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is still just 7-13 as a road dog this year, while Chicago is 15-6 as a home favorite. I think Hendricks is the correct call. I’m laying the price.

Chicago Cubs.

10*

The set-up: Both teams are struggling offensively, but New York now has an opportunity to sweep this four game series after its 6-1 win last night, scoring all six runs in the eighth inning. Washington is now 11 games under .500. Washington last won a game when tonight’s starter Stephen Strasburg was last on the hill, while the home side counters with Stephen Matz.

The pitchers: Strasburg (4-3, 3.32 ERA) gave up two runs over eight innings in a 5-2 win over the Cubs last weekend. Note that he’s pitched at least six frames in nine of his ten trips to the mound this season.

Matz (3-3, 3.96) returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to the Marlins on Saturday. While just 1-5 vs. the Nats in 11 career starts, Matz owns a very respectable 3.60 ERA. 

The pick: Note as well that Strasburg is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 19 career starts vs. New York. The Nationals’ bullpen has been atrocious, but I expect these competent starters to battle deep. This number is high.

Washington Nationals/NY Mets UNDER

10* play

The set-up: After letting the Giants rally for three runs in the bottom of ninth last night, I think the Braves bounce back here. And after rallying for three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and steal last night’s contest, I believe the home side has a predictable letdown here. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried, while the Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija.

The pitchers: Fried (6-2, 2.86 ERA) enters off six shutout innings vs. Milwaukee on Friday and he’s won each of his past two trips to the hill and three of his last four overall. 

Samardzija (2-2, 3.69) gave up four runs off five hits over five innings in a win no decision to the Reds on Sunday (three solo home runs.) It was his worst start of the year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 4-1 this year following a one run loss, while SF is only 10-13 at home and just 5-9 (-3.9 units) after a win by two runs or less. Great value on the hungry visiting side.

Atlanta Braves

10*

The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.

The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: The Padres have lost six of their last seven, so clearly they won’t be lacking motivation/focus tonight. Arizona is 25-22 and the Padres are 23-24, but the Friars have already take four of seven in the season series. As good as Luke Weaver has been for Arizona of late, I think that the Padres’ rookie phenom Chris Paddack is the correct call in this case. 

The pitchers: Weaver (3-2, 3.16 ERA). Paddack is 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA. 

The pick: The Padres though are 6-2 in Paddack’s start this year and I look for that trend of success to continue again on Monday. Note as well that Arizona is just 7-10 vs. the division this season, while San Diego is 11-6 (+7 units) after scoring four runs or less in six straight games. Great price, play on the home side. 

San Diego Padres

10* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the Blazers. While the teams split four regular season meetings, Portland has had difficulties with Golden State’s “smaller” or “shooting” line-up, with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson being the featured pieces in the offense, instead of Kevin Durant. Perhaps Portland would have done better with Durant in the lineup? We’ll never know, but for whatever reason this particular line-up has given the Blazers difficulties in the postseason and I don’t think anything changing for Game 4. Portland had it’s best opportunity to get back into this series in Game 3, but once again it came up short in trying to defend Curry and company. I’ve also been thoroughly impressed with the Warriors’ defense to this point. Portland’s on the ropes and I look for the defending champs to put the final nail in the coffin.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five when leading 3-0 in a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-7 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. I like Golden State on the MONEY-LINE in Game 4.

GSW

10* play

The set-up: Toronto has looked competitive in both games up until the fourth quarter in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Bucks have pulled away each time for the cover. In an essentially “do or die” scenario, I’m expecting Toronto to battle tough here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. So far Milwaukee has rolled through its competition, but I believe the shift in venue North of the border finally leads to a letdown here from the Deer. The Raptors were better at home than on the road all season and if not now, when? 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following a home win by ten points or more. I’m laying the price and taking the home side on the money line here. 

Toronto Raptors (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: The Sharks were average on the road this year, but great at home. St. Louis had its hands full in Game 4 though, but it would hold on for a 2-1 win in front of the home town crowd. Note that St. Louis is 27-22 on the road, averaging 2.80 goals and conceding 2.45 in those contest. The Sharks are 32-19 at home though. averaging 3.67 goals and allowing 2.86 in those games. I do indeed think that “home ice” will be the difference for the Sharks this evening.  

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven playoff games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range, while St. Louis is still only 7-16 in its last 23 playoff games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, a great price in my opinion.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: The Dodgers cruised to a victory in the opener of this series yesterday and I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value to take the second in similar fashion. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side counters with Tyler Mahle. 

The pitchers: Buehler (4-0, 4.14 ERA) has looked stronger with each start in 2019. In two May starts he’s struck out 15 batters and his fast ball is reaching 99 MPH. Most recently he went seven scoreless vs. the Nationals.

Mahle (0-5, 3.97) has thrown better than what his record would indicate, but note that the Red safe still 1-7 in his starts and 0-6 in his last six. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 17-8 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is already just 5-15 as an underdog this season. All things considered, a great price in my opinion. 

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: San Jose took back home ice advantage with its Game 3 victory. The Sharks had to battle tooth and nail and they scored an improbable last second shot to tie the game, before then going on to win 5-4 in OT. It was an uncharacteristic breakdown for the usually stingy Blues and in my opinion, Game 4 sets up as much more of a defensive goaltenders battle. Note that despite the higher-scoring game, St. Louis goaltender Martin Jones is still 10-6 with a 2.89 GAA in the playoffs and for his career he’s now 5-4 with a 2.00 GAA vs. the Blues. St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington is now 9-7 with a 2.67 GAA in the playoffs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go under in 16 of its last 24 after playing to three or more consecutive overs, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in six of its last eight after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is high, play the under.

San Jose Sharks/Saint Louis Blues UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Oakland destroyed the Tigers 17-3 yesterday. I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “duel” in the second game. The home side sends Daniel Norris to the bump to atone for yesterday’s disappointing effort, while the visitors counter with Frankie Montas. 

The pitchers: Montas (4-2, 2.78 ERA) held the hard-hitting Indians to two runs over six innings last Friday, after holding the Pirates to one run over six frames of work. Montas hasn’t given up a home run in his last five starts and I believe he carries over that momentum here. 

Norris (2-1, 3.63) gave up two runs while striking out five over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Twins on Sunday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 23 then the total 9 or higher, while Detroit has seen the total dip under in ten of 13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. After yesterday’s slug-fest, expect these competent hurlers to be the main story-lines in tomorrow’s summaries.

Oakland A's/Detroit Tigers UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Two pitchers on top form collide in this National League contest on Thursday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium here. The Reds came out on top 6-5 in ten innings yesterday, but everything points to more of a “duel” between the Cubs Jose Quintana and the Reds Luis Castillo on Thursday. 

The pitchers: Quintana (4-2, 3.50 ERA) had a four game win streak snapped in last Friday’s setback to the Brewers, allowing three runs over seven innings. He’s 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. 

Castillo (4-1, 1.76) has won four straight, most recently posting a season-best 11 K’s over six shutout innings in a victory over San Francisco last weekend. He’s 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts vs. Chicago.

The pick: Note that Chicago has seen the total go under in 9 of 14 vs. division opponents already this year, while Cincinnati has seen the total go under in ten of 16 at home. This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Red UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: After yesterday’s 6-2 defeat, I like the home side to bounce back with its “ace” on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chris Archer, while the D-Backs counter with Zack Greinke. 

The pitchers: Archer (1-2, 4.33) returns to face his old team. Archer has been on the DL since April, he’d last five up six runs off six hits over four innings in a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers.  

Greinke (5-1, 3.16 ERA) comes into this one on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his past eight starts. He’s also 9-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Bucs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 38-61 (-15 units) the L2 years as a road dog between +100 and +150, while Arizona is 5-2 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has home side blowout written all over it. Lay the price.

Arizona Diamondbacks

10* play

The set-up: The fact that the Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals doesn’t come as a shock obviously, but not many would have predicted that the Blazers would have advanced to this point. Portland has been getting exceptional play from the duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Warriors played Game 6 in Houston without All Star Kevin Durant and they’ll have to open the WCF without the dynamic forward in the line-up as well. Golden State used its “shooting line-up” in the Game 6 win, with the offense revolving through Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and Steve Kerr will now be forced to use the same game-plan here as well. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Portland has seen the total go over in seven of ten this year off an upset win as a road dog, while GS has seen the total go over in all three games it’s played in this season when playing with three or more days rest. This number is a tad low.

Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers OVER

10* play

The set-up: After the high-scoring affairs in Boston, I’m expecting a much more defensive goaltenders battle in Game 3. Boston has been an average road team this season though, while Carolina has been much better at home. I think the shift in venue will also help in pushing this total under the number. Note that the Bruins have allowed only 1.89 goals over their last 11 games. Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask is now 10-5 with a 2.02 GAA in the playoffs. His counterpart Petr Mrazek has uncharacteristically struggled the last two games, but he’s still 5-5 with a 2.73 GAA in the playoffs. Note that the Hurricanes only allow 2.46 GPG at home this year as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 20 road games when the total is 5.5, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in 15 of 25 after allowing four or more goals. This number is a little high. 

Boston Bruins/Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 

10* play

The set-up: San Jose destroyed St. Louis 6-3 in Game 1 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in Game 2 as well. The Sharks average 3.70 GPG at home and rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington, who to this point has pretty much carried the Blues to this point, looked very average in the loss. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Binnington, but there’s no question that he’s in unchartered territory at the moment. Sharks’ goaltender Martin Jones looked decent though, stopping 28 of 31 shots to improve to 9-5 in the playoffs. San Jose is 32-18 at home so far this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Sharks are 53-38 (+4.7 units) the last two years after a victory by two goals or more. I think San Jose’s experience and home ice advantage proves to be too much for St. Louis again in Game 2. Lay the price.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: The Cubs rallied to win 2-1 in 15 innings last night and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here on Sunday night as well. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Jon Lester.

The pitchers: Chacin (3-3, 5.03 ERA) gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Nats on Monday. Chacin is just 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA on the road.

Lester (2-1, 1.41) gave up two runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Marlins on Tuesday. Since returning from the DL Lester has given up just one earned run over 18 innings of work. 

The pick: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, this is considered the very definition of “great line value” in my books. Lay the short price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play

The set-up: Chelsea needs to at the very least match Tottenham’s result vs. Everton in order to take down third place, but it comes in knowing that it will be playing in Champions League football next year. Leicester won’t be going down without a fight here though in front of the home town crowd as it looks to close the season on a high note, while also paying tribute to their late owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha 

The pick: Leicester actually has a lot to play for here, as an outright would move them to as high as eighth, but an outright loss could slip it as low as 11th. Chelsea won’t take the foot off the gas at this point, especially after losing the reverse fixture 1-0 in December. I’m banking on a high-scoring shootout this time around.

Leicester City/Chelsea OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Cards scored 17 runs in Thursday’s win over the Pirates, but they managed only one in their 2-1 setback to the Bucs last night. St. Louis won’t be taking anything for granted here though as it’s lost seven of nine. The home side hands the ball to Miles Mikolas, while the visitors go with Jordan Lyles.

The pitchers: Lyles (2-1, 2.20 ERA) gave up one run off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the A’s last week. Lyles though has struggled against the Cardinals, going 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA lifetime, including 0-2 with a ballooned 6.14 ERA at Busch Stadium. 

Mikolas (4-2, 4.02) comes off back-to-back strong outings and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t keep the progression rolling here. Most recently he’s given up just one run over his last two starts vs. the Nats and Phillies. In six starts vs. Pittsburgh he’s 2-2 with a respectable 3.03 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Cards’ slugger Paul Goldschmidt is 10 for 20 with three extra base hits and four walks vs. Lyles. I think the determined home side breaks out again at the plate. Lay the price.

STL Cards

The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: New York has been scuffling all season, but the good new is that the rest of the  division has as well. The Mets though now start a very favorable stretch of 13 games vs. fourth and fifth place teams and I think they’ll get the journey started off on the “right foot” tonight. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.03 ERA), while the home side counters with Zack Wheeler (2-2, 4.64). 

The pitchers: Lopez comes in off a good start vs. the Braves on Sunday, going six scoreless. Lopez gave up two runs over six innings in a 5-2 win in his only matchup vs. the Mets.

Wheeler comes in off a decent outing vs. the Brewers on Saturday, allowing two runs over seven innings and I look for him to carry that momentum over here. Note as well that Wheeler is 5-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Fish.

The pick: The Mets have a big opportunity to catch the Phillies here, who only sit 4.5 games ahead in the NL East. The Marlins are the worst offensive team in the league and I think they’ll struggle with production against the suddenly improving Wheeler. Lay the price.

NY Mets

10* play

The set-up: It’s an elimination game for the Blazers. Denver can smell the Western Conference Finals now and I believe it’ll look to push the pace and keep the pressure high from start to finish. Denver gook Game 5 on Tuesday night by a score of 124-98, as it now is having zero issues in exploiting the Blazers weak defensive play. It’s do or die for Portland, which will be looking for a much better offensive performance at home after stumbling the last couple of games. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 19 as a road dog of six points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 11 off a loss vs. a division rival. This number is low.

Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Hurricanes went 22-10 after the All Star break. After falling behind Washington 2-0, Carolina has gone 8-1 since. Overall Carolina has scored 22 goals over its last six games. Petr Mrazek gets the start in net for the visitors and he’s 4-3 with a 3.09 GAA lifetime vs. Boston. Note though that Carolina is still only 25-22 on the road this year, averaging 2.74 goals and allowing 2.83 in those games. Boston posted 11 goals over its final three games vs. the Blue Jackets and it’s allowed an average of just 1.89 goals over its last nine games. Tuukka Rask is 9-7 with a 2.27 GAA lifetime vs. Carolina. Boston is 33-15 on home ice this year, averaging 3.33 goals and conceding 2.42. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is still only 16-38 in its last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 27-9 in its last 36 when playing on two days rest. A great price all things considered.

Boston Bruins

10* play

The set-up: The Yanks took the first two games of this series, 7-3 and 5-4, before the Mariners finally got off the schneid with 10-1 win on Wednesday. The Yanks though are still 15-6 in their last 21 games and I think they’ll bounce back here in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake, while the home side counters with JA Happ. 

The pitchers: Leake (2-3, 4.91 ERA) has been atrocious of late, going 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA over his past five starts. Note that in two career starts vs. New York he’s 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA. 

Happ (1-3, 4.93) has completely turned his season around after a horrible start, going 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA over his last four starts. He’s 4-2 with a 5.06 ERA in seven career outings vs. Seattle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 1-4 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while the Yanks are 6-2 at home as a favorite in the same price range. All things considered a very fair price in y opinion. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: This has been a great series and if you’re watching and wagering on this contest, then the story lines are likely very well known. The Stars and Blues played a Game 7 in St. Louis last night and after two OT’s, “home ice” proved to be the difference for St. Louis in my estimation. Colorado managed a 4-3 OT win at home on Monday night in Game 6, but I think the Avs will run out of steam in this difficult road venue. Note that the Sharks are 5-2 at home in the playoffs. 

The pick: Additionally note that Colorado is still only 28-71 in its last 99 as a road dog, while the Sharks are 7-2 in their last nine home games following at OT loss in which they allowed four or more goals in. All things considered, a great price on the home side. 

10* SAN JOSE SHARKS

The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight. 

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points.

10* BOSTON CELTICS

The set-up: Dallas is banged up. Including to veteran goaltender Ben Bishop. The Blues finally broke out of their offensive doldrums in Game 6 and I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that they can’t carry that momentum over here in front of the home town crowd. St. Louis has been much better at home than on the road and considering the circumstances, I think the line value in this one is tremendous. In fact, I’d say that this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

The pick: With Stars’ net minder Bishop indeed dealing with a minor injury, the scales definitely tip in favor of the Blues’ Jordan Binnington. Look for “home ice” to be the difference in this one and lay the price with confidence.

STL Blues

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game, as the first Champions League finalist will be decided here. Barcelona travels to Liverpool hoping to close it out after a 3-0 win in the first leg at Camp Nou. Lionel Messi had two goals in that one for Barca. The Reds won’t be going down without a fight, but if they’re going to pull off the upset, they’ll be doing it without the injured Mohamed Salah. 

The pick: Bacelona is loaded with talent and I don’t think it’ll be content with a single goal here. The Reds are capable of scoring despite the injury to Salah, as Daniel Sturridge enters on top form. This number is a little low considering the circumstances.

Barcelona/Liverpool OVER

10* play

The set-up: San Jose has turned this series around and it has a chance to end it here and now. The reason behind that turnaround? Goaltender Martin Jones. Jones has a 6-2, 1.94 GAA and .936 save percentage in the playoffs. Clearly the Avs won’t be going down without a fight. Colorado is also leaning on its goaltender Philipp Grubauer, who had a career-high 37 saves in the Game 5 loss, after previously posting a shutout in Game 4. Note that Colorado was outshot 39-22 in Game 5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four when leading in a playoff series, while Colorado has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven when trailing in a playoff series. This one has goaltenders battle written all over it.

San Jose Sharks/Colorado Avalanche UNDER

8* play

The set-up: The Rockets scrapped tooth and nail in their 126-121 OT Game 3 victory to pull the series to 2-1 in favor of the Warriors. The contest would have gone “over” the number whether the game went to OT or not and I expect a similar style of “shootout” in Game 4 as well. The Nuggets and Blazers went to four OT’s in their Game 3 and they came out with a lot of energy in Game 4 last night, as that total easily blasted past the posted number as well. And I expect a similar sort of situation here as well. Golden State played well defensively at home in Game’s 1 and 2, but clearly the Rockets are out to push the pace at home, especially now as they try to close the gap and even the series. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 32 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total fly “over” in four of its last five when trailing in a playoff series. This one has “over” written all over it.

GSW/Rockets OVER

10* play

The set-up: Neither of these usually “rock steady” starters has looked great this year, but after getting swept in St. Louis, I think that Max Scherzer and the hungry visiting side offer great value to take Game 1 vs. the struggling Jhoulys Chacin and the Milwaukee Brewers.

The pitchers: Scherzer (1-4, 4.08 ERA) is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Brewers.

Chacin (3-3, 5.24) has given up 27 hits and 18 walks so far this year. He’s had plenty of success against the Nationals as well in the past, but that was then and this is now.

The pick: Despite the recent slide, note that Washington is still 60-42 in its last 102 on the road, while Milwaukee is just 25-35 (-5.3 units) in it last 60 as a home underdog. I think the sharp money is on Scherzer. Lay the short price!

Washington Nationals

10* play

The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: The Nationals rallied for an improbable 10-8 win last night, but I think the home side bounces back and earns a win in the finale with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill. The Nationals send Anibal Sanchez to the mound, while the home side counters with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Sanchez (0-4, 5.91 ERA) is a terrible 5-10 with a 4.96 ERA in 22 starts vs. the Phillies. 

Eflin (3-3, 3.34) is a respectable 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA in four starts vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is still just 11-13 (-6.5 units) vs. right-handed starters this year, while Philly is 15-9 (+3.9 units) in the same position. Lay the price and expect a blowout.

Philadelphia Phillies

10* play

The set-up: This has been a back and forth series. Colorado managed a 3-0 win in Game 4, but I think that San Jose offers great value to bounce back at home in this important Game 5. San Jose still has the home ice advantage over this three-game series and I expect it to make the most of it. Colorado’s weakness this year has been its play on the road and I think it’ll predictably struggle here. The goaltenders are a wash, but home ice and a few lop-sided trends swing the scales clearly in favor of the Sharks in my opinion. 

The pick: As note that the Avs are still just 3-11 in their last 14 as road dogs in the +110 to +150 range, while San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the short price.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: Considering the current form of each starter, I think that the Braves could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Soroka, while the home side counters with the volatile Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Soroka (2-1, 1.62 ERA) has allowed just one run in each of his three starts. He’s faced Miami once and owns a 0-0, 1.93 ERA record vs. them. 

Richards (0-4, 4.64) is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA over his past three starts. He’s faced the Braves just once in his career and he owns a 0-0, 10.38 ERA record vs. them. 

The pick: Atlanta won 7-2 in yesterday’s series opener, but all signs point to an even bigger blowout here in my opinion. Lay the price.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: A clear mismatch on the mound makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The Dodgers hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw, while the Padres go with Eric Lauer. And with only 1.5 games separating the clubs right now, clearly the hard-hitting visiting side won’t be taking anything for granted.

The pitchers: Kershaw (1-0, 2.25 ERA) gave up one run off four hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Pirates on Saturday, giving up zero walks.

Lauer (2-3, 4.41) has been all over the map with his consistency this season and I think that trend continues in this tough matchup.

The pick: While they’re 11-6 on the road, note that the Padres are only 7-8 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Dodgers.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: Boston looked dominant in its Game 1 win, while Milwaukee would then go on to return the favor in Game 2. With the shift in venue, I think this “back-and-forth” trend continues on Friday night as I expect the home side to bounce back and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Boston earned the coveted split after its Game 1 victory and I believe it’ll take advantage in Game 3. 

The pick: Maybe part of the reason the C’s had an obvious letdown in Game 2 is the fact that they know how much the Bucks struggle in Boston. Note that Milwaukee is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven played in Boston. note that the Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records. I like Boston to defend home court in Game 3. 

Boston Celtics (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: This series is all tied up at one-game apiece. All signs point to another battle here. Toronto averaged 114.4 PPG in the regular season, but it’s averaging only 104.1 PPG in the playoffs, including just 89 last time out. The Raptors dominated defensively in their first round win and that’s carried over here as well, coming in holding the high-flying 76ers to just 101 PPG over the first two. Philadelphia has to be feeling pretty good about itself as it’s earned the split and won five of six overall. The 76ers have been terrific so far defensively as well, holding Toronto to just 98 points over the first two games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, while Philly has seen the total dip under in four of five this year off a SU road win vs. a division rival. This number is a little high.

Raptors/76ers UNDER

10* play

The set-up: It’s a big game. For both teams. Boston seemed to have momentum after it’s Game 1 victory, but Columbus quickly rediscovered its swagger which saw it dominate the Lightning in four games as it’s taken control with a 2-1 lead. The Bruins struggled in their seven game series win over Toronto and they’ve run out of gas here it would seem against this suffocating Blue Jackets side. Note that the Bruins have scored just six goals over the first three games of this series. One bright spot for Boston continues to be goaltender Tuukka Rask, who is still 5-5 with a 2.22 GAA in the playoffs. His counterpart Sergei Bobrvosky is now 6-1 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs for Columbus.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in nine of 12 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while the Blue Jackets have seen the total dip under in four of its last five when leading in a playoff series. Everything points to another goaltenders battle here.

Bruins/Blue Jackets UNDER

10* play

The set-up:The Orioles have scored three runs or fewer during its current four game losing streak. I think the surging home side which has won four straight will take full advantage. Chicago goes with Carlos Rodon on the hill, while the visitors go with David Hess. 

The pitchers: Rodon (3-2, 4.94 ERA) looks to bounce back after his worst start of the season, giving up eight runs over three innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Friday. Rodon had a 3.58 ERA at home last year.

Hess (1-4, 5.88) took the loss vs. the White Sox at Camden Yards on April 22nd, giving up four runs over five innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-7 in its last nine road games as an underdog in the +125 to +165 range, while Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 at home after a three games or more unbeaten streak. I think Rodon at home is the correct call.

Chicago White Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play

The set-up: St. Louis won Game 1 3-2, which was a “push” on the total, before Dallas won Game 2 by a score of 4-2, which would go “over” the total. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and each has one of the best goaltenders between the pipes. Rookie Jordan Binnington has almost single-handedly carried his team to this point for the Blues. And the same could be said for the Stars Ben Bishop. Dallas has had a big shot advantage overall in this series though and if the Blues can’t keep pace, they’re going to find themselves in a big hole in a big hurry. The playoffs is all about making adjustments and I expect the visitors to come out and push the pace in Game 3. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up as another wide open affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in its last two road games where the total is five or less, while Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four at home when the total is set at five or less. This number is low.

Stars/Blues OVER

10* play

The set-up: Two great young prospects square off in this one, but I think that home field advantage will be significant. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Margevicius, while the home side goes with Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Margevicus (2-2, 3.60 ERA) has been excellent so far, allowing only two runs once thus far. 

Soroka (1-1, 1.69) has been sharp as well in his limited time, posting 13 K’s over 10 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Note that San Diego’s line-up with an injury to short stop Fernando Tatis Jr., who had an 11 game win streak going. Atlanta on the other hand strengthened its bullpen with the acquisition of leftie Jerry Blevins over the weekend. I like Soroka to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Lay the price.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: I’m actually surprised that the Sharks aren’t a bigger favorite here. San Jose took all four regular season meetings with the Avs and they had little trouble pulling away for a 5-2 win in Game 1. I’m expecting a similar final beatdown here as well. The Avs achilles heel all year has been their play on the road where they’re just 19-26, averaging 3.11 goals and allowing 3.13. San Jose on the other hand is 29-17 at home, averaging 3.72 goals and allowing 2.87. 

The pick: Additionally note that Colorado is still only 24-50 in its last 74 as a road underdog in the +110 to +150 range, while San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven vs. teams with losing road records. Also note that the favorite if 40-16 the last 56 in this series. I’m banking on these trends continuing. Lay the reasonable price.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: If you’re watching and wagering on this game, then the story lines and the cast of characters are well known to you. These are two of the most “covered” teams in the NBA over the last few years and their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even a casual NBA fan. I’m not here to to give you a player by player break down, I’m here to tell you why I think this particular game is going to go “over” the number. The Warriors have looked disinterested all year and they suffered a big blow when Boogie Cousins went down with injury in the first round. The Warriors are going to have to rely on their precise three-point shooting to overwhelm teams and they’re going to be forced to match pace with a Rockets team out to avenge last years Western Conference Finals loss. Clearly Houston won’t be sitting back and trying to play defensively. Overall I expect a faster paced game and that means mores shots and more shots = more points.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go over the number in all four games its played in this year in trying to revenge a close loss of three points or less vs. an opponent, while GS has seen the total go over in four of its last five as a home favorite of six points or less. This number is low, play the over.

HOU/GSW OVER

10* play

The set-up: Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale has been anything but an ace so far for Boston. But Sale has looked better of late and I think he’ll finally punch one into the win column here. The visitors counter with Tyler Glasnow. After Saturday’s 2-1 loss, look for the Red Sox to respond here. 

The pitchers: Sale is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA thus far. Clearly its been the most difficult stretch of his career. But Sale’s fast ball was finally reaching upwards of 95 MPH in his last start. Also note that he’s 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. the Rays, including going 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts last year. 

Glasnow is 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA so far. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Glasnow, as he’s playing extremely well right now. I just think he’s in the wrong place in the wrong time in this one.

The pick: Note though that Glasnow is however 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts vs. Boston. Look for Glasnow to finally take a step back and for the Red Sox to give Sale more than enough production to earn his first victory.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: Colorado’s been off for over a week after steam-rolling the Flames in five games. The Avs’ momentum is lost, while San Jose comes in off a dramatic come from behind seven game series win over the Golden Knights. For the most part these teams are evenly matched, but the Avs DO NOT match up well with the Sharks at all. San Jose took all three regular season games between the clubs, posting 14 goals, including 11 at even strength. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 5-1 in its last six as a favorite between -110 and -150, while Colorado is just 2-11 in its last 13 as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. Home ice and momentum make the home side the correct move here.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of these two clubs? For me it’s hard-nosed defensive play. This is a big game for both sides obviously, as a win will see the Nuggets move onto the second round, while a victory for the Spurs would then push the series to a decisive Game 7. So far Denver has averaged 108.6 PPG in this series, while allowing 103.4. They held the Spurs to 90 points last time out for a second straight win in the series and if they’re going to do it again here to end it tonight. Overall the Spurs have averaged the 103.4 PPG, while conceding 108.6. 

The pick: Will Gregg Popovich make the necessary adjustments to push this to a Game 7? I think this one sets up as a very defensive affair. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring 105 point or more in four straight games, while San Antonio has seen the total dip under in 19 of 29 as a home favorite. This number is a little hight.

Denver Nuggets/San Antonio Spurs UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points.

LA Clippers

10* play

The set-up: Game 5 saw the Capitals destroy the Hurricanes 6-0 in Washington. Carolina then posted the 4-2 win at home in Game 6, continuing the trend of having the home side win every game in this series to this point. So what’s going to change here? Carolina’s achilles heel has been its play on the road this year and it’s had major difficulties in the nation’s capital over the last few seasons. The defending champs have to be feeling confident in this spot.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is still only 14-38 in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Washington is 35-17 in its last 52 following a loss of three or more goals. Carolina has outscored Washington 12-3 at home, but its been outscored 14-5 in three games so far in Washington. Lay the price.

Washington Capitals

10* play

The set-up: The Cards have taken the first two games of this series and I look for the surging home side to complete the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Adam Wainwright. 

The pitchers: Chacin (2-2, 5.92 ERA) won his first two starts before taking back to back road losses. He then gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Friday.

Wainwright (1-2, 4.74) has to be feeling confident here as he’s enjoyed a lot of success vs. the Brewers throughout his career, going 15-9 with three shutouts and a sharp 2.36 ERA. 

The pick: One player to keep your eyes on for the home side is the red hot Paul DeJong. The Cards’ short stop is hitting .378 in nine games vs. Milwaukee this year with three home runs while driving in six. Brewers’ slugger Christian Yellich is 0 for 6 in this series and 1 for 9 in the past three vs. the Cards. I think Wainwright is the correct call here. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: The Yankees won 4-3 in extra innings last night and I like them to get the job done here as well, despite being down some key sluggers and players offensively. The Angels are also dealing with injuries, but overall this is a matchup which favors New York on the mound. The Yanks hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side counters with Chris Stratton. 

The pitchers: German (3-1, 2.37 ERA) who was bumped up to make this start because of last night’s marathon 14 inning game. German has to be feeling confident here as he’s jumped out to an early good start, posting the 2.37 ERA to go along with a 0.84 WHIP and 23 K’s over 19 innings of work overall. 

Stratton (0-1, 7.00) was lucky to earn a no-decision in his last start vs. the Mariners on Thursday, allowing six runs off seven hits over five innings. Over 18 innings Stratton has now allowed 14 earned runs leaving him with a horrible 2.00 WHIP.

The pick: As bad as the Yanks are injured, this pick is based entirely on the starting pitching. Great value, play on the visitors.

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points.

Brooklyn Nets

10* play

The set-up: With the Bruins sitting as a -140 home favorite in Game 7 of the first round vs. the Leafs, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. And they are. I could easily write a convincing argument for either of these teams to come out on top, but I think that the value lies with the hungry visiting underdog. Toronto lost 4-2 at home in Game 6, but it’s taken two of three in Boston already this season. The Leafs have a chance to revenge last years playoff loss and I expect them to make the most of it. Keep your eyes on Toronto’s Auston Mathews, who has scored in four straight games. The goaltenders (Frederik Anderson for the Leafs and Tuukka Rask for the Bruins) are a “wash” in my opinion. 

The pick: Toronto though is 21-10 (+5.6 units) this year after allowing four goals or more, while Boston is 1-4 (-4.8 units) in its last five when tied in a playoff series. I think many will be on the Bruins, but I’m going the other way and backing the “hungrier” team. 

Toronto Maple Leafs

10* play

The set-up: Houston’s second half push has carried over into the first round of the playoffs. The Rockets and Jazz split four regular season meetings, but James Harden and company have stormed out to a quick 3-0 lead and if the Jazz don’t get something figured out on the offensive end, there season will end here and now. Clearly Houston will have its most difficult fight tonight, as the fourth game is always the most difficult to earn (in most cases that is.) Utah is a very defensive minded club, but it’s had its own issues slowing down the Rockets, losing 122-90, 118-98 and 105-96. I just think that from an overall “situational” stand point, that this one definitely sets up fantastically as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Additionally note that Houston has seen the total soar over the number in ten of 15 as a road favorite of six points or less, while Utah has seen the total go over the number in eight of 11 this year in revering a home loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, play the over.

Rockets/Jazz OVER

10* play

The set-up: This has been a competitive back-and-forth series and I’m expecting a competitive back-and-forth contest here. Las Vegas has a chance to finish off this series here and now, but the Sharks took a decisive 5-2 win in Game 5 and clearly they won’t be going down without a fight today either. These are two very defensive minded clubs, but I believe we’ll see a very high-paced, wide-open affair today and I believe that’s going to help immensely in this total going over the number.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go over the number in 18 of 29 this year after a win by two goals or more, while Las Vegas has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 home games when the total is set at six or higher. All signs point to a shootout. Play the over.

VEGAS/Sharks OVER

10* play

The set-up: Both games in yesterday’s double-header flew over the number, with the Tribe taking an 8-4 win in the first game and the Braves rallying late for an 8-7 win in the second. I like the Indians to bounce back in the rubber match tonight (as stated in my free play). So far Atlanta pitcher Max Fried has been exemplary, but I think he runs into a buzz saw here vs. this red hot Indians’ offense. He’ll also have his hands full with vs. his counterpart Shane Bieber.

The pitchers: Fried, who is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA who has so far thrown three straight strong outings, faces a difficult task throwing opposite Bieber, who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Bieber most recently gave up one run over six innings in a win over he M’s on Tuesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven on the road, while Cleveland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six vs. southpaws. Despite these pitchers getting out to respective “hot” starts, I think these offenses continue to shine.

Braves/Indians OVER

10* play

The set-up: Milwaukee halted a three-game losing streak with a 5-0 win yesterday, but I think that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers offer great value to bounce back in the finale today vs. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers.

The pitchers: Woodruff, who is 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA has been decent so far, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Kershaw is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA, who gave up a single home run in his first start back: "Definitely a good first outing back," Kershaw said. "I'll take that, especially the way we ended it. It was a fun night all around, other than that first inning. Definitely helps me remember I can do it. Any time first time out, you just want to make sure you can get hitters out again. 'You can do this, you can succeed. Do it efficiently.' Things to work on, which is good, but overall, a good first step."

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a huge 66-33 (+12.4 units) in its last 99 “day” games, while Milwaukee is interestingly only 23-34 (-6.4 units) in its last 57 as a home underdog. Look for Kershaw to continue his progression and lay the short price.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: So far home ice has meant everything in this series. The Capitals easily took both Games 1 and 2 at home, before the Hurricanes returned the favor on their home ice. Both teams followed a same regular season pattern in that they started slowly and then came on like “gang busters” to end the regular season. It wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game, but as stated off the top, so far “home ice” has been a big difference maker in this series and I see no reason at all for that pattern to snap here.   

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is just 3-8 in its last 11 after back-to-back home victories, while Washington is 35-13 (+19.7 units) in its last 48 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, lay this reasonable price.

Washignton Capitals

10* play

The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4. 

The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: I like the Pirates to build off their 4-1 win over the Giants in yesterday’s series opener. San Francisco has struggled with offensive consistency to open the 2019 campaign, and facing a motivated Jameson Taillon at home isn’t what the doctor ordered to get it turned around. The visitors counter with the volatile Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Holland (1-2, 4.09 ERA) most recently gave up four runs off four hits with four walks over six innings in a loss to Colorado on Sunday. The 32 year old has allowed a home run in each of his four outings thus far this season. 

Taillon (0-2, 3.43) gave up three runs over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. Chicago on Monday. Taillon was 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA last year, including posting a sharp 2.99 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is an atrocious 22-46 (-13.8 units) in its last 68 as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 27-8 (+13.8 units) in its last 35 as a favorite of -150 or more. This one has rout written all over it.

Pittsburgh Pirates

10* play

The set-up: Do or die for the No. 1 seed. Colorado leads 3-1 and if Calgary doesn’t find a way to win this one, it’ll become the second top seed in the Western Conference in three years to be ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Philipp Grubauer managed a Game 2 win for the Avs in Calgary, but overall he’s just 1-2-0 North of the border. “We’re not done yet,” Flames’ captain Mark Giordano to the Calgary Sun. “We have a big home game coming up and then get it back here.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is still just 18-27 (-6.5 units) vs. teams with winning records, while Calgary is 23-15 (+4.9 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. With the home town crowd behind them, I expect the Flames to step up and produce their best effort of this series. Look for the Avs to pack up their tents early as they head home for Game 6.

Calgary Flames

10* play

The set-up: Chicago had Thursday off and it’s won seven of ten. The Cubs come in with considerable confidence after sweeping the Fish on the road. So far Kyle Hendricks has struggled for Chicago, but I think the veteran will bounce back here in this favorable matchup. The Diamondbacks have also been rolling, but after a three-game sweep in Atlanta, including a 4-1 win on Thursday afternoon, I think the visitors take a step back here with Merrill Kelly on the hill.

The pitchers: Hendricks (0-3, 5.40 ERA) has completed only five innings once in three starts this year. He is however 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four career starts vs. the D-Backs, allowing 17 hits over 25 1/3’s frames opposed, striking out 25 and walking six.

Kelly (1-1, 3.79) has been decent, striking out 17 and walking three over 19 innings so far this year. Clearly he faces a stiff test in this difficult road venue this afternoon though.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is still only 3-6 (-2.3 units) this year vs. right-handed starters, while Chicago is 69-48 the last two years after allowing two runs or less in its previous contest (shut out the Marlins twice in its series sweep.) Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: A great price for a desperate home team. It’s “do or die” for the disappointing Sharks, who have squandered home ice advantage and likely this series. However, I do indeed believe that San Jose will dig deep here and find a way to send this one back to Las Vegas for another game. 

The pick: Also note that Vegas is just 1-5 in its last six on the road still. San Jose was knocked out of the playoffs by the Knights last year and I expect it to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight to get back into this series. No need to over think this one. Great value on the hungry Sharks.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.

Denver Nuggets

10* play