The Phillies knocked off the home team Marlins on Wednesday, scoring 4 runs against the bullpen to win. The Phillies need wins to keep their wild card hopes alive this season. It is the worst vs the first in offense on Thursday. The Phillies are flying at .296/.863. Not so the Marlins at .217/.601 over the last two weeks. Miami is just 3 and 7, managing just 2 runs against Philadelphia in their last two starts.

The Marlins pitching, including relievers, has struggled almost akin to their bats of late. Thursday’s starter Lopez who has had some very good moments this season, has regressed lately and is 1-4, 6.17 in his last 7 games. He gave up 8 runs in 3+ innings in his last start. A couple of H’s, Hoskins and Harper have had Lopez’s number in previous meetings.

Syndergaard starts for the Phillies and has pitched reasonably well in his last two starts. He is no longer overpowering, so don’t look for shutout innings from him any more. The Phillies, bullpen has been reasonable in relief lately.

Neither starter has pitched especially well lately, but the Phillies are the far better offense with a more effective bullpen, and the motivation to win. Look for the Phillies to break out the brooms on Thursday. Phillies to win.

The 6-4 White Sox are off a win, and putting the charge in the ball lately, at least top three over the last two weeks. They are hitting lefties especially well. They are just three games back of the division leading Guardians, their only hope for a playoff spot. They are not the best team on the road, but have their ace on the mound on Wednesday. With two shutouts in his last two starts, one of them a complete game effort, Cease is as good as anyone in the league, and boy, has he been getting run support lately, 25 runs in the last 2 games. To make matters worse for the Rockies, Colorado have almost no experience against him. Should he need bullpen support, the White Sox relievers have been solid of late.

While they have won their last two home series, the Rockies are a different animal on the road, and very poor as a road underdog. They are also the second worst team on offense in the league when on the road. Lefty Freeland has had mixed success this year, but he has pitched well in his last three starts, giving up just 4 runs in 16+ innings. As one might expect, his ERA is two runs less when pitching on the road. The Rockies’ bullpen has not been kind to him (or anyone else) lately, as Freeland has come away with just 1 win in those three games. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.20 in their last 10 games.

I have been burned on some run line wagers this year, but even considering Freeland’s recent success, the combination of Cease and a hot White Sox line up makes me wager on the Sox and the run line on Wednesday

The Braves let me down last night, losing 3-2 to the Giants. They fell behind 3-0 and were just not able to close the gap. Going 2 for 7 with runners in scoring position really hurt. When you have 10 hits, you should probably score more than two runs.

Despite losing with them last night, I’m back on the Braves here. It’s a great spot to back them. Not only do they own a 35-16 record when off a loss this year, but they are 2-0 when coming off three straight losses. That’s right, the Braves have not lost four in a row at any point in 2022. History says they’ll win tonight.

It’s not like the Giants are any good either. They’ve been a bad team to bet on (-22.2 units) and have scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games. They’ve been lucky to string together a few wins in a row, but you can’t consistently beat Atlanta with that little offense. 

Atlanta is 20-6 with Kyle Wright starting this season. Wright got away with allowing eight runs in his last trip to the mound as the Braves rallied for a 10-9 win over Oakland. Unbeaten over his last five starts, Wright had allowed just three runs in his previous four starts before going against the A’s. He’ll bounce back facing a Giants team that is hitting .207 the last week. The Braves have lost only one of Wright’s last 13 starts!

Jake Junis has a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his last three starts for San Francisco. He must contend with a much stronger lineup than what Wright will face in this matchup. Atlanta comes in as the second highest scoring team in baseball. 10*

The 8-2 Braves, off a rare 2 straight losses, travel to SF to meet the Giants. The Braves are a good road team a very solid bet to bounce back after a loss, but they face a strong starter in Giants right hander Alex Cobb. Cobb hasn’t faced the Braves this year, and has been dominant at home. He is 2-1, 2.90 ERA over his last 7 starts. The Giants haven’t scored many runs of late, with a runs scored/allowed of 2.9/3.9.

The Giants face a very good rookie pitcher in Spencer Strider. Strider has come in to his own this year, and is 5-1, 2.23 ERA in his last 7 games, with a remarkable 16 strikeouts in just 2 starts ago. He struggled against the Giants in June, a rare poor start this season. Strider is not quite as strong on the road, but has had a ton of run support this year.

Atlanta has won 3 of 4 vs. the Giants this year, all of them close. Cobb hasn’t had much run support this year, and the Giants’ bullpen have struggled to support him. The Braves are getting excellent relief pitching lately. They are one of the best teams for power, and the wind is blowing out today. I wouldn’t bet on the Braves losing 3 straight. It may be close, but take the Braves to win.

For the Broncos, it is kind of like starting school with the brand new outfit; new QB, new coach and new plan for the offense. Same old defense, which is a good thing. Rated well into the top 10, the Broncos’ defense allowed the third lowest points last year. They were particularly good against the pass, and in the red zone, but look for a new emphasis on bringing pressure to quarterbacks this year. The Broncos on offense have a powerful rushing duo in Williams and Gordon, and fine receivers. What remains to be seen is how much of an addition Wilson can be to take the Broncos to the next step and how quickly he can do it.

Much is made in the media about the Seahawks and the return of Wilson. It will be very surprising if the Seahawks thrive rather than flounder this year, and the Broncos will be a very tough opening match. As much as the Seahawks know Russell Wilson, Wilson the playmaker, also knows the Seahawks. Emotions aside, this might be the very best place for Wilson and the Broncos to start.

On offense, Seattle hopes that RB force Penny will continue as he finished last year. It is eight years since Geno Smith played as a starting quarterback, so no great expectations there. Smith did not thrive under pressure last year, and while still has some very fine targets, he is a big step back on QB for the Seahawks this year.

Look for the tough Broncos defense to hold things together early and pressure Smith, and possibly more of a running game early from the Broncos. Wilson knows why he is there, is a consummate professional and competitor, and WILL establish a pass attack. Projected scores for this match vary wildly from a grudge win by a vengeful Seattle squad to a Broncos blowout. I expect something in the middle. Take Denver to win and cover. 9*!

What to think of the Cardinals this year?  The Cardinals didn't make a ton of changes in the off season  They face a tough early schedule, and there is definitely friction around Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have a mediocre offensive line and will be missing Hopkins for the first six games as well as 2 other key targets injured or questionable..  Their day one opponent probably couldn't be worse.  Mahomes and the Chiefs don't fail on season openers, and are projected to be in the elite in the league again this year. While they lost Hill, they still have Kelce, and have added key receivers for a new look KC pass attack.  One thing that hasn't changed is the O-line, and that is a good thing.  It served Mahomes very well last year.

The Cardinals started last season as a very good defensive team, but that changed by the end of the season.  The lost some key people on defense and haven't appeared to replace them. The Cardinals have a pretty serious injury bill at the moment.  They are not especially good vs the run, so we might just see more running game from the Chiefs on Sunday.

Mahomes has something to prove after a difficult (for him) year in 2021.  He has by all reports, prepared very well, and the KC offense looked good in preseason.  Take the Chiefs to win and cover on Sunday. 9*!

The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them.  They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment,  climbing to 7th in the league in the last week.  Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late.  All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning,  The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately.

The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled.  Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each.  The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late.

The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low.  Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today.

Have the Eagles truly landed? Well, I am on Hurts and the Eagles until I see otherwise.  The Eagles have done much to bolster the team in the off season.  AJ Brown might not even be the most significant addition as they have significantly added to the defense through free agency and the draft.  Hurts needs to take that step forward this season and the Eagles brain trust has put him in the best possible position to make that step.  The Eagles now have a trio of top targets for Hurts, a very strong O-line and a dominant run game to boot. Did I mention a top 5 or 6 defense?

Run is a bit of a dirty word for the Lions.  They don't have an established run game, and they likely wont defend the run much better than last year.  Geoff, like Hurts, needs to make the next step, but the Lions, while improved, don't have the personnel to fully support him.  Their offensive line was expected to be a bright spot this year, but the injury bug has struck already.  While it likely won't be the rout we say last year, I expect the Eagles to win and cover.

The Orioles knocked off the Red Sox to stay within reach in the wildcard race. They ran in to a tough Jays team in their last series but have been very tough on sub .500 teams this year. They are also very good at home. Lyles starts for the Orioles on Saturday. He has pitched very well at 4-1, and with an ERA of 2.72/L7, but his low point lately was a 9 hit, 4 run, 4 inning appearance vs the Sox. His last two starts were very good. Lyles is a much better pitcher at home.

The 5-5 Red Sox were swept by the Rays and are now down a game in Baltimore. They were hitting very well, but have fallen off in the last week. Wacha, who has been the Sox’ best pitcher this year., starts on Saturday. He has been back from the IL for 6 starts and 5 of them were of good quality. He shut down the Orioles in August, pitching into the 6th and allowing 4 hit and no runs. Wacha has been less effective on the road, and there is a trio of Orioles hitters who have had very good success over the years.

This could be a good match-up between the starters, and it may come down to relief pitching, in which case the Orioles have a decided advantage. That and the Orioles’ home field success leads me to lean towards Baltimore. Take the Orioles to win.

Even though Illinois is at home, coming off a loss to Indiana, they probably should not be favored here. 

Now the Fighting Illini’s season did get off to a great start as they blew out Wyoming 38-6 here in Champaign. But the last second loss to Indiana last week took the wind out of their sales pretty quick. It’s a game the Illini probably should have won, but four turnovers cost them dearly.

Virginia has the best offense that Brett Bielema’s team has seen yet. The Cavaliers are led by Brennan Armstrong, a dual threat QB that can beat you with his arm or his legs. Illinois’ defense will have all sorts of problems trying to contain Armstrong, who has his top three receivers back from last year.

It wasn’t the most impressive final score as Virginia beat Richmond last week 34-17. But the offense had over 500 yards and scored 28 points by halftime. They simply took their foot off the gas in the second half, probably not wanting to show Illinois much. 

These teams met last year and Virginia won 42-14 with Armstrong throwing for 400 yards. The line was -10.5 (in favor of Virginia) for that game. I just don’t see how it could be so different here. 10*

We’ve got a Top 25 matchup in Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon with the 17th ranked Panthers hosting #24 Tennessee. Despite Pitt being at home and the higher ranked team, they are the underdog here. The bloom really came off their rose with less than stellar showing against West Virginia in the opener. It was a 31-24 win, but the Panthers needed a late pick-six and did not cover the spread.

Tennessee did cover the spread in its first game, easily defeating Ball State by a score of 59-10. The Volunteers had 38 points by halftime and 52 by the end of the third quarter. Eight different receivers caught a pass in the first half. With last year’s top rusher Jabari Smith back and four returning offensive linemen, the Vols will be able to run the ball effectively here as well.

Cause for concern if you’re a Pitt fan - not only did Tennessee average more than five yards/carry last season and West Virginia just went for 5.6 yards/carry. 

No team in America played “faster” than Tennessee did last year. Under Josh Heupel, they averaged 3.12 plays per minute! This is what I like to see when betting the Over.

No one thinks Kedon Slovis is going to be able to “replace” Kenny Pickett at Pitt, but the USC transfer threw for 300 yards against WVU. Over the course of the game, the Panthers’ offense started playing faster as well.  This game should be a shootout! 9*

South Carolina needed TWO blocked punt returns for touchdowns to get to 35 points last week against Georgia State. But the Gamecocks’ offense should be on full display this week at Arkansas, who could be down two defensive starters.

Like South Carolina, the Razorbacks won their season opener. But in defeating Cincinnati 31-24 as a 6.5-point favorites, Arkansas gave up plenty of yards (438) and honestly was fortunate not to allow more points. Six different times, the Bearcats offense crossed midfield only to come up empty. They also started a drive inside the Arkansas’ five-yard line and wound up settling for a field goal. 

But I was impressed with the Arkansas’ offense, specifically QB Jefferson, who accounted for four touchdowns last Saturday. He put up 9.3 yards per attempt last season, so a strong showing was really not that much of a surprise. Also, the Arkansas’ rushing attack seems like it won’t skip a beat, despite Trelon Smith leaving.

South Carolina’s defense was pretty bad at stopping the run in 2021 and with only one starter back along the defensive line, they figure to struggle to stop Arkansas from moving the chains.

But as I stated at the top, look for a better showing from the SC offense in this game. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler has a great set of skill position players surrounding him. Look for the Gamecocks to take advantage of a possibly depleted Arkansas secondary. 10*

Boise State turned in a truly horrible first half performance last week in Corvallis and as a result, found themselves down 24-0 going into the break. Winning the second half 17-10 was of little consequence as the Broncos ended up going down 34-17 at the hands of Oregon State. Based on that performance, I think the number is too high this week in New Mexico.

Not much is expected in Albuquerque this year. But the Lobos did start 2022 with a big 41-0 win over Maine. Now while everyone realizes that’s a FCS opponent, New Mexico did hold the Bears to 118 total yards and just 2.5 per play. UNM gained 437 yards in the game and six per play.

After just one game, there’s already some question as to who will be under center for Boise. Hank Bachmeier threw two first half interceptions last week and thus got benched for Taylen Green, who came in and threw for 155 yards. As of press time, Bachmeier is still listed as QB1. But this uncertainty about the position can’t be good for the offense.

New Mexico’s offense is all about running the ball. Look for them to control the clock, making it difficult for Boise State to pull away. Honestly, based on what we saw last week, there’s no reason to believe the Broncos will run away with this game.

A Friday night home game is a big deal for New Mexico and I’m expecting an inspired effort where they keep the game close. The Lobos seem like they’re a better football team compared to last year. The Broncos are now just 7-7 straight up their last 14 games. 9*

The 5-5 Brewers are struggling to keep pace and are down a couple of starters. They can’t hit lefties lately. Today’s pitcher, Alexander is a reliever/spot starter, who has pitched two starts recently to mixed results. His starts are short as would be expected. He gave up 3 runs over 4+ innings in his last appearance.

The Reds are off a pair of winning series, are 4-2 in September, and hitting well in recent games. We saw the Reds take off earlier in the season. They don’t usually have much success vs the Brewers, but today could be a solid opportunity for them.

Lodolo, a promising rookie left-hander, has also had some mixed results lately, but is very good when on. He has tossed a pair of 6 and 7 inning shutouts, mixed in with poorer results. Expect much more length from him than from Alexander.

Neither bullpen has been especially sharp lately, and the Brewers will need to turn to it early. With 2 of their last 3 starters lasting only 2+ innings and a double header yesterday, their relievers may be over-extended today. Take the underdog Reds to win or at least stay close today.  Reds on the run line at +1 1/2. 9*!

The Streaky Jays are on a tear again, winning 9 of 10, and are hitting well, moving back into the top 5 teams on offense in the last week. They have the very dependable veteran right-hander, Ross Stripling on the mound. Stripling has done more than was expected of him, and is 3-1, with an ERA of 2.50 over his last 7 starts. He faces Ranger’ righty Dane Dunning, who has been uneven lately, struggling in two of his last three starts.

The Rangers have won just once in 10 games and haven’t been hitting, especially vs. right-handers. Their runs for and against are 3.0/5.1 L7. Switch those numbers around and you have the Jays’ for and against production.

Toronto is in the heart of the pennant race, and players who weren’t hitting are beginning to show well. They are especially tough on right handers. Off some solid length from the starters, and with a day of rest, the bullpen is rested and has been very sharp lately. Look for the Jays to come out firing on all cylinders on Friday. A Jays win is in the offing.

What a letdown Louisville was last week. The Cardinals lost 31-7 at Syracuse in a completely misleading final. I say that not just as “sour grapes” after a bad bet, but knowing full well Louisville came away with seven points on five drives inside the Orange 40-yard line. 

Even though QB Malik Cunningham did not play great against Syracuse, the offense still averaged 6.2 yards per play. What happened is they were undone by three costly turnovers. 

Central Florida faced a FCS school in its opening game, so we really can’t make “heads or tails” of the Golden Knights just yet. But we do know they lost three of last year’s starters along the defensive line. Louisville should be able to run the ball more effectively and hold up in the face of pressure better than they did in Week 1.

Louisville won this matchup last year, 41-34 as a seven-point dog. It came down to the wire with a pick-six on the final play deciding things. I’m not saying they’ll be able to beat the Cardinals again, but all the Golden Knights need is to stay within a score. I think they do that here.

Cunningham should have a bounce back game (he had 384 yards in this game last year) and we’re getting a ton of value with Louisville being off a loss. The Cardinals are 10-4-1 ATS off a loss. 9* 

The Yankees brass must just be chewing their own livers when they see the play of lefty J P Sears in August and September. He has allowed just 8 runs over 27+innings in 5 starts since joining the A’s. What he won’t do is pitch much past the 5th. He is up against a premier starter in the White Sox’ Dylan Cease on Thursday. Cease has a 2.38 ERA in his last 7 starts, and has given up just 2 runs in 17 innings in his last 2 outings. Cease one-hit the As over 6 innings at the end of July.

After winning 6 of 8 games, the Sox still have an outside shot at a wild card spot, especially if they can take advantage of games against teams like the As. The Sox are a good road favorite this season. They are hitting well at the moment, and aren’t giving up many runs lately.

The As have won just 1 of 7 games, and unlike the Sox, are giving up nearly 6 runs a game lately. They have struggled against right-handers all year, and their bullpen has allowed some inflated numbers in recent games.

Sears has shown well recently, but the White Sox are tough on lefties, and Sears can’t match the quality of the Sox’ starter Cease. Chicago needs this game, and has been much better in all regards lately. Take the Sox to win on the run line at -1 1/2.  9*!

The Bills face the Rams on the road in what is touted as a possible prequel to this year's Super Bowl.  So what have these teams done lately? The Bills who were solid on both sides of the ball, upgraded on defense by adding Von Miller and others to an already impressive and well run defense.  What did the Rams do? certainly, they lost more than they gained.The Rams had their issues on defense last year, especially early in the season and were never much better than average over the season.  I am not convinced that the Rams won't struggle early again.

There is no doubting Stafford's abilities, but he doesn't come without a down side.  He threw more interceptions than any one last year, and he doesn't exactly spread the ball around.  He gets sacked a not inconsiderable number of times, and there are still some questions around his elbow. Allen and his running ability, and Von Miller, who will likely be in Stafford's face a lot on Thursday ,will be the difference-makers in this game.

The Bills are hungrier and with more to prove.  On the road or no, take the Bills to win and cover. 9*!

The Marlins are 1-9 in recent action and have lost 2 straight to the Phillies. They scored three runs yesterday, which was their highest total in ten games. They have their ace on the mound today which normally would have been a great opportunity to stop the bleeding. Alcantara has already pitched nearly 200 innings this year, and isn’t pitching quite as well, with an ERA of over four in his last seven starts, nor does he pitch quite as deep into games lately. His ERA is higher on the road. The Phillies are the rare team that has had success against him in the past.

The Philies are just 5-5 lately, and need the sweep to keep in the play-off race. They are hitting very welll, especially for average lately. Gibson starts for the Phillies today. He was blown out of the water in his last game, but has been a very effective pitcher this season and was 3-1 in August with a 2.30 ERA including a solid start vs the Marlins. After such a short start, he will at least be well-rested.

The Marlins recent offense is woeful at .182/.506, and they have had little success vs the Phillies. I expect Gibson to bounce back form his last start, and possibly a sub-par performance from Alcantara. The Marlins bullpen has struggled in recent games, with an ERA of over six in their last five games. Take the Phillies to win .

The Nationals have played much better in September, winning series vs the Mets and A’s, and splitting the first 2 games of their present series. They haven’t been good as a road underdog this season and have struggled vs. left-handed pitching. The 8-2 Cardinals are very strong at home, and are 3-1 vs the Nat’s this year. Both teams are hitting well lately; the Nationals have the advantage for average and the Cards, for power.

Left-hander Montgomery starts for the Cardinals today. Other than a poor outing against the Braves, Montgomery has been lights out since joining the Cards, winning 5 of 6 games and allowing just 1 run total in those 5 victories. The Nationals have not faced Montgomery before, so advantage goes to the pitcher. Look for a solid 6 innings from him today.

Cory Abbot starts for the Nationals. Usually a reliever, Abbot started 4 games in August, to mixed results. His last start vs. the Cubs, a 2 run, 6 inning effort, was his best and longest appearance.

It would be hard to go against Montgomery and the Cards at home, and the odds-makers would certainly agree. St. Louis has the superior starter and a formidable bullpen at the moment. Take the Cardinals on the run line today. 9*!

It has been a long season for the Tigers, and they have continued to struggle in September. They flounder for the season as a home underdog, and have been badly outscored in their last three games. Prior to Tuesday, they had managed less than 2 runs on average over their last 5 games. The starters have been poor, with short starts and the bullpen, overworked.

The 7-3 Angels have looked much better of late, hitting for power and getting very good pitching. In addition to great length from the starters, the relief pitching has been outstanding.

Lefty Sandoval starts for the Angels on Wednesday. He has been excellent everywhere but in the win column, especially lately, with an ERA of 2.63 in his last 7 games. He has pitched well into games, and shut out the Tigers with a 4 hit, 9 inning gem in August.

Sandoval faces the Tigers’ Hutchison, who is also capable of a quality start, and has delivered lately with an ERA of 3.13 in his last 7 appearances. He doesn’t commonly offer the length that Sandoval would.

Offense might not be the name of the game on Wednesday, but if it does come, it will likely be from the Angels. Sandoval is a better bet and the Angels’ pen has been super. They rung up the Tigers to the tune of 10-0 just two games ago. Look for the Angels to win and cover on the run line.

Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff is off an unusually poor start where he gave up five runs in Arizona. I know that Woodruff has been inconsistent on the road all season and this is Coors Field, but I still expect him to lead the Brewers to an easy win over the Rockies in Tuesday’s series opener.

The odds clearly reflect who is the better team here. Colorado is not just 22 games under .500, they’ve been outscored by 142 runs over the course of the season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is desperately trying to climb back into Wild Card position. They are currently two games behind Philadelphia and San Diego. Missing the playoffs would be terrible for a team that led its division for more than half the season. 

It’s a good bet to expect Woodruff to bounce back here. Before that last start, he had not given up more than three runs since early May. 

There’s a huge edge for Milwaukee with Woodruff on the mound tonight. The Rockies are going with Chad Kuhl, who is having a bad year. Kuhl having a 9.20 ERA over his last three starts makes him an even more appealing fade.

As we saw last night, when they scored six runs in their win, getting to swing the bats at Coors Field should provide ample opportunity for the Brewers to score runs. Visiting teams are averaging 5.7 runs/game here. Christian Yelich is also now healthy and back in the lineup. Meanwhile, Colorado is without Jose Iglesias, its top hitter. 10*

I realize that it’s difficult to drum up any interest in Pittsburgh, a team that has lost four in a row as well as eight of its last ten games. But wait until you hear about the success they’ve had in the past against Mets starter Taijuan Walker!

In three career starts vs. the Pirates, Walker is winless and has a 7.94 ERA. 

Now I obviously cannot make a play solely based on that small sample size. But here’s the thing. Walker is a pitcher that you’d want to bet against anyway. His ERA post-All Star Break is 6.10. This seems to be a disturbing trend for him as he carried a 7.10 ERA in the second half of last season. 

Walker has made it through six innings just once in his last five starts. This is another problem for the Mets because their bullpen has not been good for the last month or so.

The Pirates are going with Mitch Keller as their starter for Tuesday. Keller has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts this year and has a 3.19 ERA over the previous nine. So he can keep his team in this one. Before yesterday’s game got rained out, the Mets had suffered back to back 7-1 losses - at home - to the Nationals. Grab the +1.5 in this one. The Mets are overpriced. 9* 

A pair of low-flyers open a series today. The Tigers, on the road, have won just 1 of 6 games; the Angels are better at 6-4. Neither team has hit well at all lately. The Tigers are very poor as a road underdog, but the Angels, in the rare circumstances that it occurs, are good as a home favorite.

Tigers’ lefty Alexander returned to a starting role in August with some success early in the month, but has struggled in his last two games, lasting just 7+ innings and allowing 9 runs. His ERA for the month is 5.58, and his numbers are much worse on the road.

Jose Suarez, another lefty, starts for the Angels. Suarez has had mixed success this season, but has pitched effectively in August, going 3-2, with an ERA of 2.51. He generally pitches into the 6th inning. The Angels have been getting solid pitching lately, including their bullpen, whose ERA is a sharp 2.12 in the last two weeks. The Tigers’ relievers have a collective ERA of more than double that in the same time period.

I favor Suarez and the Angels today. They showed especially well vs. the Jays and Yankees, and they seem to finally be on the upswing. Alexander’s numbers appear to be going in the wrong direction, and his last starts have been short. Take the Angels to win outright.

The Guardians have picked the wrong time to fall of a ledge, but have now lost 4 straight, and 7 of 9. While they have faced tough pitching lately, their offense numbers are very low, just  ERA of over .216/.561 OPS over the last two weeks. While they aren’t hitting they are at least tough to score against, allowing just over 3.5 runs a game /L7. The Royals, 5-5 L10, are just the reverse, hitting .272 /.826 OPS over the last two weeks, but with a struggling bullpen.

Tristan McKenzie is pitching for the Guardians. After a magnificent run, he has taken a slight step back, with an ERA of 3.18 over the last 7 games. That ERA is still more than acceptable, but pales when compared to his hot streak. McKenzie has already pitched more than 150 innings, well above his total from his first full year in 2021. He shut out the Royals when he faced them in July. McKenzie does not pitch as well on the road.

Royals’ right- hander Brady Singer had a rough 4 inning, 4 run start the last time out, but other than that he has been very solid of late with an ERA of 2.45 L7 games. Singer is a much better pitcher at home, and has had good success vs the Guardians.

I would be all over the Royals as an underdog on Monday if it weren't for the KC bullpen, ERA of over 5 in the last two weeks.  Singer can often pitch 6 or 7 innings, and the bullpen came through in the last 2 games, however I will temper my enthusiasm and take the Royals on the run line at +1 1/2. 9*

Two years ago, Clemson hung 73 points on Georgia Tech in what was utter humiliation for the Yellow Jackets. But last year, the game ended just 14-8 in Clemson’s favor. That was an early sign that it might be a “down year” for Dabo’s Tigers, who lost three of their first seven games. 

But Clemson ended 2021 on a 6-0 run and now seems primed to have a bounce back season. The defense was NOT the problem last season (only 14.8 points/game allowed) and should be one of the very best in the country for ‘22. 

Meanwhile, it’s been a pretty ugly three seasons for Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech. Especially when facing Clemson. Transitioning away from the triple option (to a spread offense) has not gone all that well in Atlanta. Incredibly, the Yellow Jackets have scored a combined 29 points in the last three meetings with Clemson. I’m not expecting them to score a ton tonight either.

Therefore, I’ll ride with the Under here. Georgia Tech’s offensive line is young and two of the top three receivers from last year are gone. I don’t see them doing well against what is perhaps the nation’s best offensive line.

Clemson’s offense wasn’t that great last year and I don’t see them scoring 40+ points tonight. Play the Under. 

The Brian Kelly era gets underway at LSU Sunday night against Florida State. While this is the Tigers’ first game of the season, FSU played last week and won 47-7 over Duquesne. I wouldn’t put much stock in that victory though as it came against a FCS team. Mike Norvell, entering his fourth year at Tallahassee, still has a lot of work to do. 

This game is in New Orleans, so that’s an edge to LSU, even though they’d prefer it being in Baton Rouge. Kelly has won 40 straight games when favored. That includes a 41-38 win over Florida State in the opening game last season, when Kelly was still at Notre Dame.

How much better LSU will be in 2022 remains to be seen. But we know they will be healthier. Their 74 starts lost to injury last season were the most in the entire country. Jayden Daniels, one of 19 transfers that Kelly brought in, is expected to be the starting QB tonight. But my eyes are more focused on the Tigers defense, which should be a lot better this year. 

Yes, it was “just a FCS opponent.” But FSU giving only seven points was encouraging. The Seminoles have eight starters back on defense this year and I think they’ll do a good job here against an opponent breaking in a new starting quarterback.

The Under is 9-4 in Florida State’s past 13 games and that’s the way I see this one going.

The 7-3 Diamondbacks are hot, winning their last two series and in a good position at home to finish off the Brewers today.  They are hitting well for a change, climbing to 5th in the league lately, and passing the Brewers who have cooled off in recent games.  August pitcher of the Month Zac Gallen has continued to dominate the opposition.  He is 5-0, with an ERA of 0.80 in his last 7 games, regularly pitches for 7 innings, and has been very good vs the Brewers this year.
Gallen faces reliever/occasional starter Alexander for the Brewers.  He has had mixed results this season with an road ERA of 5.29 , but pitched effectively in his one August start after a recall from Triple A.  He is unlikely to pitch for length today.
Gallen and the D-backs are in a very good spot.  They are solid as a home favorite but have one weakness; their bullpen. It failed them on Saturday, but was solid in their previous two games, and it is unlikely that Gallen will need too much support.  Take the D-backs, a favorite today, to win outright.

The Angels are healthier, and winners of 6 of their last 8 games, roughing up the Jays and Yankees, and splitting two games with the Astros. The Angels are getting good pitching, both starting and relieving. Young left-hander Tucker Davidson has 4 starts with the Angels since being traded, the last 3 of them quality starts against good opponents. Control is an issue. He has 14 base on balls in the 4 games; it caught up with him in his first start and likely will again. He doesn’t pitch for length.

Urquidy starts for the Astros. He is 3-1, 3.13 in August, usually pitching into the 7th inning. He was very good against the Angels (2 hits and 1 run over 6 innings) when he faced them earlier this year.

I am on the Astros today. While the Angels have shown improvement lately they, face a solid starter and a very good bullpen. The Astros have been adept at finishing games all season long. While Davidson has 3 good but short starts lately, there is nothing to suggest a run of successful starts. Urquidy has been consistently good in the second half. The Astros are dominant as a road favorite, and are tough on left-handers, both recently and over the season (31-11). While it may be closer than I would have expected three weeks ago, take the Astros to win game 3 of the series on the road. 9*!

Washington should run away with a victory in their opening game in what promises to be a bounce back season under new coach Kalen DeBoer. 

DeBoer did a great job leading Fresno State to a 10-3 record last season. He’s got more talent to work with in Seattle and brought in Michael Penix (transfer from Indiana) to play quarterback.

The Huskies’ defense has experience and there shouldn’t be much of a learning curve under the new co-coordinators DeBoer brought with him from Frenso.

DeBoer will certainly want to make a “statement” in his first game. With a FCS opponent on deck, there’s really no reason to hold back or “hide” anything. Kent State is going to be in a lot of trouble in this late Saturday matchup. 

The Golden Flashes have made it to a bowl two of the last three seasons, but there are heavy losses on offense with the QB, both WRs and four offensive linemen having to be replaced. This is a giant mismatch on the Week 1 card.

Louisville and Syracuse each have a head coach on the proverbial hot seat. Scott Satterfield went 8-5 his first year at Louisville, but is just 10-14 since. Dino Babers is still hanging on at Syracuse despite a 29-43 record over six years. A win here is desperately needed for both Satterfield and Babers. Only one can get it though.

Satterfield’s overall results may not be up to snuff. But Syracuse is a team he’s handled all three seasons. The Cardinals have beaten the Orange three straight years, outscoring them 127-37 along the way. The last two years it’s been 71-3. 

The Louisville offense should be excellent this year with QB Malik Cunningham back. I think they have the potential to put up 40 points per game. What about the defense? Seven starters are back and eight transfers were brought in. So the Cardinals will be stronger on that side of the ball.

Cunningham has killed the Orange defense in the past with nine touchdown passes in two games. He’s a threat to run (1031 yards last year) and with Syracuse breaking in an entirely new starting D-line, I don’t like their chances against the senior L’ville QB this time either. The third time will not be the charm.

Given the series history, which includes eight straight covers by the team that is favored, you’ve got to like Louisville here. Cunningham is the difference maker with Cuse QB Shrader remains a question mark. 10*

Liberty has a had a couple of great season but QB Maik Willis is gone and could be a NFL starter (for the Titans) by the end of the year. For Liberty, the loss of Willis means the offense is set to take a step back in 2022.

In addition to having to replace its starting QB, the Flames are further due to regress because even with Willis they overachieved. Last year they were 11th in finishing drives but only 40th in success rate. I think you’ll see the Flames stall out more, or having to settle for field goals. 

Seven defensive starters and the top 10 tacklers are back for Southern Miss.  So this unit should be much improved. At least that’s the hope in Hattiesburg as the Golden Eagles move to the Sun Belt Conference this season after going 3-9 in 2021 (won their last two games).

But the USM offense, even with RB Frank Gore, is a major question mark. It was held below 20 points nine times in 2021. 

A x-factor in this game is that the new Southern Miss offensive coordinator previously served as Liberty’s offensive line coach. So he’ll bring over a familiarity with the opponent. This will be nothing like the last time these teams met (2020), a 56-35 Liberty win. 10*

The Phillies were humiliated last night, losing 13-1 to a Giants team that had previously dropped seven in a row. That was a far cry from Philadelphia’s previous result, which was an 18-2 win over Arizona. Today, I expect the road team to bounce back thanks to having Syndergaard on the hill and a better lineup.

Syndergaard is coming off a very disappointing start where he allowed five runs to the Pirates. But before that “Thor” had posted three quality starts in a row. As you would expect, the Giants weren’t doing much scoring when they were losing seven in a row. They put up just 2.5 runs per game in that stretch. There just aren’t a many hitters in that lineup swinging the bats well right now.

Jakob Junis is starting Saturday for SF and that is another problem if you’re a Giants fan. Junis gave up six runs in his start. Not only is he winless over the last seven starts, he has a 5.57 ERA since the All-Star Break. 

Last night aside, the Phillies have the stronger lineup. Look for them to beat up on Junis and a Giants’ bullpen that has struggled for most of this year. I really can’t trust the Giants to win two in a row. Not when the Phillies are in the thick of a playoff race and need to get back on track. 10*

Chip Kelly is only 18-25 in his four years at UCLA. But it was finally a winning season last year at 8-4. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson back for another year, the Bruins’ offense should be explosive and I see them routing Bowling Green in the opener.

Scott Loeffler is just 7-22 in his three years at Bowling Green with four of the wins coming last year. The Falcons do bring back one of the more experienced offenses in the country, however this group was only able to put up 21 points per game in ‘21. They still don’t have enough to keep up with DTR and the Bruins.

The defensive side of the ball was BG’s strength last season. But it still struggled to stop the run and will have to deal with Zach Charbonnet, who had 1153 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. 

UCLA averaged 37 points per game last year. Against FBS teams, BG scored more than 26 once.

It’s a big number to lay in the opener. But Kelly is all-too-aware of what’s going on at USC and doesn’t want to lose the headlines in Los Angeles. UCLA has a very easy non-conference schedule and will want to start like they did last year when they blew out Hawaii 44-10 in the first game. Won’t be close at the Rose Bowl. 9* 

It is do or die for the Twins as far as a playoff spot goes, and they have been on a run, winning 6 of 7, a number of those wins lopsided.  Their runs for/against is very good lately, and they are best in the league for offense over the last week.  Not so the 3-10 White Sox, who have played themselves out out of a playoff spot.  They are below .500 at home and are allowing more runs than they score at the moment.
Davis Martin starts for the Sox today.  Martin has bounced around from Triple A, and from reliever to starter this year.  He started twice in August with mixed results.  Based on past performance, a short start is likely.  Therein lies the problem.  The Sox pen has struggled when asked for multiple innings.
Twins' starter Sonny Gray is 3-1/1.91 ERA over his last 7 games, and is likely still smarting over his last appearance against the Sox, resulting in his worst start of the year.  Look for him to bounce back today.
The Twins respond well after a loss,  and need to get back in the win column for any hopes of post season.  Martin is a bit of an unknown and Gray has been terrific of late.  The Twins are also getting fine relief pitching.  Take the Twins to win on the road today.  9*!

Both Duke and Temple went 3-9 last season and there have been coaching changes for the 2022 season. 

David Cutcliffe retired after 13 seasons at Duke and was replaced by former A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Elko. His task is a challenging one - rebuild a Blue Devils’ defense that was positively awful last season, giving up 518 yards and over 40 points per game.

Over on the Temple sideline, former Texas run game coordinator Stan Drayton is the new man for the job. Expect a renewed focus on the rushing attack from the Owls, which probably isn’t a bad idea considering QB D’Wan Mathis is pretty inconsistent and completed just 59% of his passes last season. At one point, it appeared that Mathis was set to transfer out of the program.

I do expect Duke’s defense to improve under Elko, if for no other reason that it can’t get any worse. Temple doesn’t really have the kind of offense to take advantage anyway. There were nine games last season where the Owls scored 14 points or less.

Don’t look for Duke’s offense to do much of anything. The Blue Devils averaged only 22.8 points a year ago and have lost their starting QB, top RB and top WR. Take the Under here.

The Red Sox' and Rangers' Thursday game featured both teams' strengths and weaknesses; poor pitching, especially in relief, and solid hitting. Friday's game may be similar.  The Rangers start left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel.  Keuchel spent a month in the wilderness before emerging with the Rangers, but it hasn't helped his pitching.  He allowed 7 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings in his return start.

Pivetta has been a trooper for the Red Sox this year and has an ERA of 4.12 over his last 7 starts.  He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings.  He has an ERA of close to a run higher when pitching in Fenway, and doesn't usually go for more than 5 innings. 

The Red Sox are hitting very well of late, and especially vs. left handers.  The Rangers are scoring runs in bunches.  Both pens struggled on Thursday, and will probably have plenty of innings to work on Friday.  Thursday's game ended with 17 runs scored, 10 of them in the late innings.  Keuchel is not a good bet for a quality start.  A similar outcome wouldn't surprise me in game two of the series.  Take the Rangers and Sox to go over.

Michigan State probably won’t match 2021’s 11-2 SU record, but they’ll have an excellent defense and should easily overwhelm an inexperienced Western Michigan team in the opener. 

Sparty won all six of its home games last year, one of them over a Michigan team that made the CFP Playoff. The six wins were by an average of 13 points and while I need a bigger margin of victory Friday, this Western Michigan team is one of the weaker opponents to visit in East Lansing in quite some time.

The Broncos lose QB Kaleb Eleby and his production will be almost impossible to replace even though the team went a disappointing 8-5 with him at the helm last year. WMU was actually favored in all eight MAC games in 2021. This year, they figure to take some lumps early on.

The offensive line is young and will struggle to protect new QB Salopek, a freshman, against what is likely to be a ferocious Spartans’ pass rush. 

MSU covered 10 of 13 games last season and will win here by at least four scores. Last time these teams played it was 51-17 Sparty. Lay the number. 8*

The hard-hitting Rangers have lost 4 straight, and the culprit has been pitching, both starting and relief. They now face the Red Sox and the green monster, a place where they have not been generally successful. The 3-7 Sox return home, where they are under .500 this year. Both these teams are hitting very well and are top five in offense over the last two weeks. The Rangers are hitting left handers particularly well of late.

Well-aged veteran lefty Rich Hill starts for the Sox today. It is hard to see past his last start, a 7 inning gem of a shutout, but this has not been the norm for Hill this year. He regularly pitches 5 innings, and may pay the price after his long last outing. I expect less innings and more runs today.

Glenn Otto starts for the Rangers. Otto has been quite sharp in August with a 2.93 ERA for the month, but reverted to past form in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5innings. The Sox roughed him up badly for his worst start of the year back in May.

Both bullpens have been awful lately; The Rangers has been overused as well. The total is relatively high today but this is to be expected in Fenway Park. Take the Rangers and Sox to get their hacks in and the total to climb over.  9*!

It’s nice to see this rivalry being revived. This is the first “Backyard Brawl” since 2011 when WVU prevailed 21-20 in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have actually won seven of the last ten meetings, as well as four of the last five, but obviously little of that matters now as more than a decade has passed since the programs last met on the football field.

Pitt’s players, coaching staff and fans should care though. It’s an important game to start the season, not just because of the rivalry, but also because the Panthers have high hopes for ‘22. While they do lose QB Pickett, OC Whipple and top WR Addison, the three top running backs all return and Slovis has transferred from USC to replace Pickett. This Pitt team will again be a force in the ACC, a conference they won last season.

West Virginia hasn’t won more than six games in any of the previous three seasons and figures to be near the bottom of the Big 12 again this year. The defensive side of the ball lost a lot, particularly at linebacker and in the secondary. There’s just 11 returning starters total and the Mountaineers lost their QB, top RB and top WR from a season ago. 

With this being a rivalry game, it’s only natural to “think upset,” but I just can’t see WVU hanging with this Pitt team. The Panthers have a decisive edge on defense. Transfer JT Daniels may be in for a long night in his first game in a Mountaineer uniform. The home team is very strong along the defensive line and in the back end.

Pitt is not only 16-4 SU its last 20 games as a favorite, but they’ve covered 13 times. They are 6-2 ATS last eight tries as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  WVU is 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS L10 road games. Lay the number. 9* Pitt

Off a home loss, the Tigers are 5-3 in their last 8, surprisingly good as a home underdog, and have a very hot starter on the hill for Thursday.  Lefty Rodriguez has only been back for 2 games but has thrown an impressive 1 run over 11 innings in that time.  The Mariners don't generally do well vs left handers.

Definitely in the thick of the wild card race, the Mariners have won 6 of 8, but they aren't doing it on their offense.  At .200/.663 OPS, they are lucky that the pitching, both starters and relievers, has delivered.  Gilbert hasn't matched his first start numbers, is just 0-2 5.55 ERA in his last 7 games, but that ERA is largely a result of a two game beating by the Yankees.  He has looked just okay, giving up 2, 2, and 3 runs over 17 innings in his last 3 starts.  He does have a very good bullpen to support him.

The Tigers are the worst team in the league on offense for the season, but have hit surprisingly well lately , even climbing into the top eight over the last week.  They can't match the Mariners' bullpen pen, but the Tigers' relievers have been solid in support of Rodriguez's last two games.

The M's will have a tough time against E-Rod.  He is exactly the kind of  pitcher they struggle against; a tough left hander.  Gilbert has not been at  his best, and the Tigers' offense has been solid.  I expect the Tigers to embrace the spoiler role, possibly winning but at least keeping it close.  Take the Tigers on the run line, at + 1 1/2.

The Royals beat the Sox last night in a bit of a slugfest, and have had good success against Chicago lately. Another win might not be in the offing today. The Royals have not been getting very good pitching of late. Lefty Bubic was on a bit of a run, but that ended abruptly three starts ago. Since then, he has given up 14 runs in just 13 innings. He has been hit very hard (.351) for the month.

He faces right hander Lance Lynn today. After a late start to the season, Lynn seems finally to be rounding into form, with an ERA of 2.83 L7.

The Sox have lost 4 straight games, and their bullpen has struggled to hold a lead. The Royals have been hitting extremely well recently but their bullpen has, if anything, been worse than the Sox’. The wind is blowing out in the Windy City today. Take this game to go over. 9*!

The 6-4 Padres are struggling for a playoff spot and a sweep of the Giants would help their cause.  They are hitting well lately, especially against left handed pitching, and face a struggling lefty today.  Logan Webb has an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, and has given up 15 runs over 7+ innings in his last two appearances.  With such a major control departure, I don't expect Webb to rebound today.  The Giants aren't scoring and the starters have struggled in a big way.  About the only part of the team that has been at all impressive has been the bullpen.
Musgrove starts for the Padres.  He is 0-4, 4.42 in his last 7 starts, a considerable drop from his early season results.  He is off a very short start, allowing 8 hits and 5 runs, only 2 earned.
The Giants are a demoralized team. They have lost 6 straight and are out of the play offs for all intents and purposes.  I like the total today. The number is based more on the reputation of these two pitchers and not on recent performances, especially Webb's.  Add to that, some rough performances from the Padres' bullpen (ERA 5.60 recently), and you have a recipe for an over.  Take advantage of an unexpectedly low total and jump on the over today.

The 6-4 Padres have not impressed as was expected in the second half, but are at least still in the mix for a wild card spot. A sweep of the Giants would help their cause. The Giants, who have lost 6 straight, are for all intents and purposes out of the running. They aren’t hitting, sitting 27th in the league lately and give up far too many runs to be competitive. They are just 6-17 against winning teams in the second half. Today’s starter, lefty Logan Webb has struggled in a big way, with an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, while giving up 15 runs in his last two appearances. The Padres have been feasting on left handed pitching, for the season and especially lately. It could be another ugly start for Webb.

The Padres starter, Joe Musgrove has 2 straight months with an ERA over 4.00. Unhittable early in the season, he has had a couple of good outings this month, and has pitched well against the Giants in the past. Musgrove can pitch for length, which is a good thing as the Padres’ pen has had it’s low moments lately.

The Padres, averaging .282/.801 in recent offense, need this game, and with a demoralized Giants team hitting and pitching poorly, the opportunity will be there. Take the Padres, a very good road team, to go on to win three straight.

The Royals are just 4-6, but 2 of those wins have come with Brady Singer, today’s starter on the mound. The White Sox have a worse record at home than away, are just 2-8, and while favored today, struggle as a home favorite. The Royals have scored slightly more runs than they have allowed in their last 7 games, while the Sox have scored 4.16, and allowed 5 runs per game.

Singer has really come into his own lately with an ERA of 1.79 over his last 7 games. He has beaten the Sox twice this year. His mound opponent Giolito looked good in his last outing but has been quite uneven of late. He was roughed up twice in his previous two starts. Neither bullpen has been particularly good at holding a lead. Singer will likely pitch longer, lessening the potential damage. Underdog alert: I am taking the Singer and the Royals on the road to steal this game .

The Braves lost a pair vs the Cardinals and are now 3 games off the lead in their division. The Rockies are 4-6, but only 19-42 on the road, and are playing out the season at this point. Urena, the Rockies’ starter on Tuesday, was crushed by the Rangers in his last start, but has otherwise allowed 3 runs over 5 innings on average in August. The Braves have had their way with Urena in the past.

He faces Atlanta left hander Max Fried, who shut the Rockies out over 8 innings in Denver the last time he faced them. Fried has been as good as usual lately, with an ERA of 2.54 over his last 7 appearances. He generally pitches for length.

In runs scored vs runs allowed there is no comparison lately. The Braves are 6.4 /3.6, with the Rockies nearly the reverse at 3.9/6.3. The Rockies bullpen is also significantly worse lately. The Braves are a very good home team, off a pair of losses, and with an ace on the mound. They should be highly motivated on Tuesday. Can you spell “win on the run line”? Take the Braves -1 1/2

The Phillies have lost two straight, not what they hoped for in the scheme of things. They start a pretty good lefty on Monday to get back on track. Ranger Suarez has re-found his form over his last 7 games, with an ERA of just 1.54. It is hard to argue with those numbers. For what ever reason, he is much better when pitching on the road.

The Diamondbacks have some excellent starting pitchers, but surprisingly, the aging veteran left hander Bumgarner, is not one of them. He has given up dangerously close to a run an inning lately and hasn’t had a quality start in 6 appearances. He did hold the Phillies to 3 runs over 5 innings back in June.

This is a very winnable game for the Phillies. They are very solid vs left-handed pitching, their runs scored to runs allowed is very favorable. Not so the D-backs, on either account. The Phillies are hitting well over the last two weeks at .277/.760, considerably better than Arizona.

I am on Suarez and the Phillies today. Time is running out, and the Phillies will be motivated to get back in the win column. With Bumgarner, we seem to be witnessing the tail end of a very good starter’s career. Take the youngster and the Phillies to win on Monday.

Gonsolin, after some trouble in July has bounced back in August in a big way, allowing just 2 runs over 23+ innings.  He faces another right-hander off a good start in Miami's Lopez.  Lopez has not been as effective in August.  He struggled in two of his previous 3 start and has a hefty ERA of 5.06 for the month.  Lopez struggles more often at home.

The Dodgers are not in a losing mood, winning 5 of 6 games against the Marlins recently.  They couldn't solve Alcantara, but they did get to another fine starter, Cabrera, yesterday, and they have beaten up on the Miami bullpen very thoroughly in their recent games.  it is not surprising as the Marlins' bullpen has an ERA of nearly 6 in their last 10 games.

The Dodgers have a formidable offense, the Marlins not so much. The Dodgers runs scored to runs allowed ratio is nearly double that of the Marlins.  LA is a big favorite, but a safe bet on the run line. Take the Dodgers at -1 1/2. 

The Rockies have lost 4 straight, 3 of them to the Mets. Marquez starts for them today, and he has by and large been solid in August, although he was roughed up in his last start to the Rangers. The Mets hit Marquez very well for average when they faced him in May.

The Mets start one of their aces today. Scherzer has had another fine season, and has an ERA of 2.51 ERA in August, although he has given up 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts, albeit against some top offenses. Scherzer is very fine at home this year and I think we can expect a good outing from him today.

The Rockies don’t hit well away from Coors Field, and their bullpen has not shone, so mo support for Marquez there. The Mets offense has been very solid this year and they are getting excellent relief pitching. They are a heavy favorite but I expect them to safely cover today. Take the Mets on the run line.

The Marlins held off the Dodgers for a 2-1 win on Saturday, but it took a complete game effort from Alcantara to accomplish it. The 4-6 Marlins start another fine young pitcher on Sunday. Edward Cabrera has just 7 starts under his belt. He has had four appearances in August and has yet to give up a run. He has given up just 8 hits over 22 innings.

The Dodgers’ Urias has been almost as effective and very consistent. He has allowed 2 runs just once in his last seven games; otherwise it has been 1 or zero.

Miami doesn’t hit at all well and their bullpen is struggling big time. The Dodgers obviously hit very well, but like anyone else, struggle vs top pitching. They have yet to face Cabrera, an early advantage to the pitcher. The Dodgers’ pen has not been its’ usual effective self lately. I expect the total will be low in the early going on Sunday, but not by the day's end. It is a very low total, and I can’t see the Marlin’s pen holding back the Dodgers’ offensive tide in the later innings.  The Dodgers pen allowed 4 runs in each of Thursday's and Fridays games.  Take Sunday's total to go over. 9*!

No matter where you look, you will not find a College Football team with less experience than Nevada. I believe this will be a major detriment for the Wolf Pack, who are laying points in the season opener. 

The Wolf Pack went 8-4 last year in the regular season with three of the losses coming by two points. But then they were rolled in the bowl game, 52-24 by Western Michigan, and their coach Mike Norvell left for rival Colorado State. First year coach Ken Wilson is stepping into a tough situation in Reno as QB Strong is gone as are the top SEVEN receivers from last year. Only six starters are back. 

New Mexico State is again pegged to be one of the worst teams in College Football. They also have a new coach, Jerry Kill, who had previous success at Northern Illinois and Minnesota. While the Aggies are underdogs here, I think the players and coaching staff view this as a very winnable game and will want to get the Kill-era off to a strong start. At home, getting points against such an experienced team, they are the play. 

Last year’s NMSU team was a little bit better than you might realize as they led both San Diego State and Utah State at the half. Kill did a nice job in the transfer portal, adding a number of talented players. 

Nevada lost its starting right tackle to a season-ending injury and he was the lone returnee along the offensive line. Wilson has never been a head coach at this level and I just can’t see this Wolf Pack team winning by double digits tonight. 8*

It sounds as if the game between the Bucs and Colts could be a real tune-up with most starters including Brady and Ryan involved. The Colts' starters are projected to play at least a half, while Tampa Bay's plans are a little less certain.  Will we see much of Brady or more of Trask? Trask did not impress last week, but he did put up some yards in week one. We will see the starting Buccaneers' running backs on Saturday.  
We can expect to see more of Ryan than Brady on Saturday.  He likely needs a game situation to fine-tune his new offense.The Colts are at home, and it is understandable that he and the Colt's offense will want to impress, preseason or no.  The Colts' offense has been competitive even with their 2nd and third string quarterbacks to date.  Defense against the run was lacking last week, and they will face a tough Bucs running game.
While neither team has won in preseason, we've seen higher totals than Saturday's number in 3 of 4 games.  I expect an offense-driven game on Saturday, and am wagering on the total to go over.

The Cubs won on the road vs the Brewers, which should not be a surprise. They’ve had good success vs. The Brewers in Milwaukee this season. Smyly starts for the Cubs in game two. After a rough month of July, the veteran left-hander has pitched very well in August with a 1.43 ERA, while regularly pitching into the 6th. He tossed a1 run, 7 inning gem against the hard-hitting Cards in his last start. He has actually out pitched his more touted mound rival for the month. The Brewers’ Woodruff has an ERA of 3.38 in August and has allowed 2 home runs in each of his last 3 starts. Woodruff held the Cubs to 2 runs over 5 innings in his last start.

The Brewers are just 8-14 in August and, considering their pitching staff are giving up more runs than expected. The bullpen has not been solid with a recent ERA of over 5.00. They also struggle vs left handed pitching. A heavy favorite today, the odds do not reflect accurately today’s situation. Woodruff’s propensity for the long ball lately is worrying. Take the Cubs on the run line at +1 ½.

As one might expect, the Rays are surging back in the wild-card race, and as usual they are doing it with pitching. Until Friday night, the Rays hadn’t given up more than 3 runs in 8 straight games. The Red Sox, Saturday’s opponent, are the reverse, not having given up less than 3 runs (and often much more) in their last 10 starts.

A pair of lefties start in the 2nd game of the series. Springs, a young reliever turned starter, struggled somewhat in July but has returned to his earlier form with 3 wins and a 1.66 ERA so far in August. He has been very solid on the road this year, and usually pitches into the 6th.

He faces the veteran, Rich Hill, who has spent a lot of time on the IL this season. Since returning in early August, he has 3 starts, allowing 10 ER over 12 innings. His last start vs the Pirates was a 5 inning 2 run affair. Hill has not pitched well at home.

The Rays are 15-7 in August, the Sox, 9-13. With some injured players returning, the Rays’ bats have woken up, and have been very good at generating runs lately. Not so the Sox, scoring 4.1 and allowing 7 runs, and that bullpen has been an adventure.

The Sox squeaked out a win in a high-scoring affair on Friday night. I don’t expect a repeat on Saturday. Take the Rays to bounce back and win.

I like the Wyoming-Illinois opener to go Over the total. This is a very low total by 2022 College Football standards. 

Wyoming’s offense was hard to get a read on last year. There were six games where they didn’t score 20 points. But there were also four where they scored 44 or more. What we know heading into this season is that the Cowboys like to run the ball. They averaged the 16th most yards per carry in all of CFB last year.

Titus Swen will be the lead RB this year and should move the sticks against an Illini defense that won’t be able to match last year’s surprising numbers. But the problem for Wyoming will be their own defense, which lost a ton of talent on the backend, including all four starters in the secondary and both linebackers. 

The Pokes are one of the least experienced teams in the land entering this season and the loss of defensive talent is a big reason for that. Illinois is bringing its top three rushers back from last year, one of which (Chase Brown) averaged 5.9 yards per carry. 10*

Brett Bielema’s new QB is Tommy DeVito, who transferred in from Syracuse. I expect the Illini to be much better on the offensive side in 2020. Love the Over here.

Two good starters face each other when the Cubs and Brewers meet on Friday. Both teams have struggled on offense, especially the Brewers at .176/.595 over the last two weeks.  The Brewers lost big in their last two games and are just 8-13 in August.  The Cubs are over .500 in August, and are hitting a little better than the Brew crew, although they have struggled against left-handed pitching.

Cubs' right-hander Steele hasn't had much success in the win column but he has been terrific elsewhere, with a paltry 1.45 ERA in his last 7 starts.  He has thrown a pair of 6 inning shutouts in his last 2 appearances, one of which was against the Brewers.

Lefty Freddy Peralta is just 4 starts back from an extended stay on the IL, and each start has shown improvement.  He held the Cubs to 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start.

The Cubs' bullpen owes Steele a good outing or two, the Brewers' pen is usually very dependable, and everyone has had a day off.  The total is low but I expect this game to end even lower.  Take the Under  between the Cubs and Brewers. 9*!

The Mets lost a rare pair vs the Yankees, but bounced back vs. the Rockies last night. The Rockies are a poor team away from Coors Field, and haven’t won on the road in five games. They don’t hit well as a road team and have allowed twice as many runs as the Mets over their last seven games.

Kuhl returns for the Rockies. He pitched very poorly before a visit to the IL, but was good in a rehab start. However he pitches, don’t look for a long outing.

Bassitt starts for the Mets. Steady most of the season, he has shone lately with good length to his starts and just 2 runs allowed over 19 innings pitched in his last three starts.

Unlike the Mets, the bullpen has not been a plus for the Rockies lately. The Mets, as they have done for most of the season, are hitting well. The Mets are 4-0 vs the Rockies at home and a very big favorite today. Considering the Rockies’ road woes, I am confident the Mets will win and cover on the run line.

2022 likely won't be the Texans' year and in spite of their success in preseason, we will start to see that in their third preseason game.  It will likely be starters vs starters for a good part of the game.  Look for Trey Lance to come out like gangbusters.  With a good run in practice and a brief but successful appearance in the preseason, the likely 49ers' heir-apparent and the 49ers' offense still have much to prove and the star-power to prove it with.

In spite of  the wins, Mills and the Texans' offense has not looked steady or ready.  They are not a match against the 49ers defense and will struggle to move the ball.  The Texans' defense has looked solid vs rookies and 2nd stringers in the first two games, but this game will be more of front line conditions.

3.5 points is just not enough against the super-motivated 49ers.  Take San Francisco to win and cover.  8*!

The very streaky Jays seem to be emerging from a poor stretch and are now 6-1 L7. Their bats have stepped up and they are getting solid pitching all around. Gausman, today’s starter has been solid lately, with three of his last four outings shutouts of very good length. Gausman has already faced the Sox 4 times this year, allowing just 4 runs over 27 innings.

The Red Sox have lost 5 of 6, including their last two vs the Jays. It is injury city for the Sox offense, missing Story and Hosmer, and with Bogaerts questionable. Kutter Crawford starts for the Sox. The right-hander has been roughed up in 2 of his last three starts, and has a 5.63 ERA over his last 7 appearances. He faced the Jays previously in July allowing 3 runs over 6 innings. Unlike the Jays’, the Red Sox’ bullpen has not been dependable, pitching to an ERA of 5.50 in their last 10 games.

The Jays have won 9 of their last 10 against the Sox. The Jays are in the hunt for a wild card spot. Gausman has delivered in crucial situations this year, and is certainly capable of another fine start. The Red Sox pitching is not dependable and the lineup is depleted. Look for yet another victory for the Jays today. Take Toronto to win.

The 5-5 Mariners have struggled lately, and have hardly been facing the cream of the MLB crop. They have managed just 11 runs scored in their last 4 games. They will face a much tougher opponent in the Guardians, a very good road team who have won 4 of 5.

Tristan McKenzie, while not quite as overwhelming of late, has only given up 4 runs over 21+ innings in his last 3 starts. He had 14 strikeouts in his last appearance.

He faces the Mariners’ lefty, Gonzales. His last start vs Oakland was solid but he has generally struggled of late with an ERA of 6.02 in his last 7 starts. The Mariners do have a good bullpen, but even it can’t compare to the Guardians’ relievers of late, with an ERA of 1.29 in their last 10 games.

The Guardians are crushing left-handed pitching lately, and Gonzales is crushable. McKenzie, still very young, is absolutely the real thing. Look for a road victory for the Guardians today.

The Diamondbacks were swept by a tough Cardinals team but bounced back on Tuesday. The bats have been nothing special, but at least considerably better than their opponents on Wednesday. The Royals are just 3-7, hitting very poorly, while scoring less than three runs in 8 of 10 games.

Both starters have been performing very well of late. Galen has been as good as anyone lately, with three straight 7 inning shutouts. And an ERA of 1.17 in his last 7 games. The Royals right-hander Brady Singer has also shone, allowing just 3 runs in his last 3 games, while pitching into the 6th or 7th.

Both bullpens have had some question marks lately, but the D-backs’ relievers have held leads for Gallen in his last two starts, and the Royals’ relievers were in tough against the Rays. With 2 excellent starters pitching for length and a pair of relatively weak hitting teams, I am wagering on the Under on Wednesday.  9.0*!

The high-flying 9-1 Cardinals crushed the Cubs last night. They have fine starting pitching and the hottest offense in the league. Mikolas starts for St. Louis today. He has rebounded well after a 10 run debacle vs the Rockies in Denver, tossing a pair of 8 inning starts and giving up just 3 runs total. He faced the Cubs in August, allowing 3 runs in 6+ innings.

The 6-4 Cubs appear to be short on starters and have brought up Luke Farrell for today’s start. Farrell has some previous experience in the Bigs, but has spent the year in Triple A where his numbers were not overpowering. He hasn’t been a starter this year so don’t expect a lengthy outing.

The Cubs have been up and down in offense this season. At the moment, they are down at just .192/.584 OPS in the last week. Comparing relief pitching, the Cubs’ pen has scrambled lately to an ERA of over 6.00. The Cardinals, you guessed it, are getting fine relief pitching on top of everything else.

All roads lead to a Cardinals’ victory. I am taking them on the run line at -1 ½.  9*!

The 8-2 Braves have faced tough pitching and are still coming out on the winning side lately. The Braves are tough on the road, 9-3 as a road favorite, 14-7 in August etc., etc. They are also hitting the ball hard at the moment. Kyle Wright starts on Wednesday. Wright has been very steady lately. Other than a 4 HR, 6 run oddball start against the Mets, he hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in 6 starts, lasting 6 or 7 innings.

The 2-8 Pirates are just 7-13 in August and well down the list at 24th as far as offense goes. Keller starts for the Pirates, and his last three appearances have gone in the wrong direction, culminating in a 2inning 4 run start. Keller has shown well at times this season, but struggles against good offensive teams.

The Pirates have lost a pair against the Braves, and are getting half the runs/9 innings over the last two weeks. Add to that a bullpen that has a 5.11 ERA over the same period and a Braves win looks promising. The Braves are a large favorite, but a safe bet on the run line. Take the Braves at -1 ½.

The Red Sox surely remember being swept by the Blue Jays here at Fenway Park last month. If you recall, that series began with a humiliating 28-5 defeat for the home team. It was the most runs surrendered in a game by a Red Sox team - ever. It was also a Blue Jays’ franchise record for runs scored.

That humiliation occurred in the first game after the All Star Break. Boston has now fallen six games back of the Wild Card, but is 6-4 in its last 10 games. Toronto is in a virtual three-way tie for the three WC spots with Seattle and Tampa Bay. They are just 5-5 L10 games despite taking three of four at Yankee Stadium over the weekend.

Boston was going to start Nathan Eovaldi tonight, but he’s dealing with a sore muscle. Taking his spot in the rotation will be Josh Winckowski and that’s okay by me. Winckowski has gone at least five innings in each of his last four starts. Toronto’s offense has also cooled off over the last week or so.

Ross Stripling is the starter for the Blue Jays Tuesday. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Orioles last Wednesday. But I think Stripling is due to cool off. Over his last seven starts, he’s failed to make it through five innings three different times. Last time out marked just the fourth time all year Stripling has gone longer than five innings.

At plus money, playing at home with revenge, I like the Red Sox in this situation. They are due to beat the Blue Jays here at Fenway. Toronto is -19.0 units as a favorite. 10* 

Veteran Cubs lefty Drew Smyly has pitched well in August, with a pair of shutouts and another 2 run outing. While that 1.06 ERA for the month looks great, he has struggled vs good-hitting teams in the past, and the Cardinals are definitely on a tear offensively of late.

Jordan Montgomery starts for the Cards on Monday. He appears to have a bit of a chip on his shoulder since being traded, and has given up just 1 run in his last 3 games. Impressed by Smyly’s ERA? How about Montgomery’s; 0.54 over his last 7 starts!

The Cardinals are very much tops of the bops at the moment, at .352/1.003 over the last torrid week. The Cubs have been better than average, but pale in comparison at .218/.700. The Cubs are sub.500 at home and while the starting pitching has been very good, the bullpen has struggled, Sunday’s game being a case in point. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been very sharp.

The Cardinals are on a serious roll and it will take more than Smyly and the Cubs’ bats to slow them down, road or no. Take St. Louis to win outright.

The Rangers have taken two straight on the road from the Twins, but Monday’s game might be a little tougher, as they run out rookie right hander Cole Ragans. Ragans started his career in the Bigs with a 5 inning shutout, but has since given up 8 runs over 9+ innings in two starts.

The Twins lost ground this weekend in pursuit of a wild card spot and, needing a win on Monday, look to Sonny Gray to right the ship. Gray was ridden hard by the Rangers in July, but has been much better lately, giving up just 5 runs in 4 starts.

The Twins are very good as a home favorite and tough on left handers this season. The Rangers are not especially good on the road or against winning teams, so their two wins are a bit of a surprise. I expect Gray to out-duel Ragans on Monday. Both bullpens have been ok lately, although the Twins’ relievers failed the team on Sunday. Look for a better game all around for the Twins. Take them on the run line on Monday at -1 1/2.  9*!

The Cubs have been very tough on the Brewers lately, winning on Friday and Saturday, and are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings. The Cubs bats have surged lately all the way to third in the league with an OPS of .770. The Brewers have reverted to last year’s number on offense at .182, .607 OPS over the last two weeks. While the Cubs have won 5 straight, and 8 of 10, they face a tough customer in Brandon Woodruff on Sunday. Woodruff is slightly more fallible than normal with an ERA of 3.44 in August. Opposing batters are hitting .243 against him this month and he has given up a pair of home runs in each of his last two starts. Woodruff is not at his best when pitching on the road.

He faces the Cubs’ left-hander Justin Steele, who has a rock solid ERA of 1.66 in his last 7 games with a pair of shut-outs in his last 3 starts. He faced the Brewers in July, allowing just 1 run in 6+ innings, and is much better at home.

The Brewers are a solid favorite today, based solely on Woodruff’s reputation. I am not so sure of that outcome. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid, possibly not quite on par with the Brewers’ but there is no comparison on offense, and Steele has been at least as good as Woodruff lately. Take the Cubs on the run line at +1 ½, although an outright win would not surprise me.

The Mariners are on a tear, with a 7-3 record lately, and post-season a distinct possibility this year. They are hitting much better, scoring 29 runs in their last 3 games, and have a fine bullpen. Gilbert, today’s starter has struggled of late allowing 16 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. He gave up 4 runs to the A’s in June. The good news is today’s opposition can’t seem to hit anyone well let alone a right-hander.

The A’s are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, .212, .688 OPS lately, and woeful at home. Today’s starter Kaprielian, was exceptional in July, but has slowed down this month. Opposing batters are hitting .277 against him in August, and his starts are seldom over 5 innings. He has a good and a poor start vs the M’s this year. The A’s pen has been competent lately with an ERA of around four.

The Mariners have a very good record against the A’s and are a very solid road team this year. The total today is very low, reflecting the A’s poor offense as much as today’s starters. Gilbert’s latest performances are an issue, and Kaprielian has not been flawless lately. With the M’s swinging very hot bats, I’m wagering on the over today.

The Angels are off a 1-0 win over the Tigers, with very long starts for both teams. Neither of these teams is hitting well at the moment although the Angels just had Trout return from the IL. A pair of Left handers face off in Saturday’s game. Detmers has been very good for the Angels lately, with a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts. The Tigers start Tyler Alexander, a former reliever who has been effective with five straight short starts, allowing no more than 3 run per appearance.

Both offenses have been better vs left handers of late. The bullpens have been poor (Angels) and terrible (Tigers) lately. The total for Saturday’s match is low. I don’t expect 9 and 7 inning superlative starts again on Saturday. The total may be low early, but look for the final score to go over by the end of 9 innings. Take the over. 9*!

Some teams put more emphasis on a competitive preseason.  For the Broncos in week two, we will apparently not see Russell Wilson or any of the other starters participate.  We will see the Bills treat this game competitively, including Josh Allen.  The word is the starters will play "a healthy amount".  The Bills have continuity on offense this year, and who better to scrimmage against than the Bill's reworked defense including Von MIller.. 

No Wilson, second stringers, and a new coaching staff and offense for the Broncos vs a healthy and focused Bills team. Take Buffalo to win and cover.

The Cardinals have won 4 straight at home, and have a great 1-2 punch at the moment. They have the best offense in the league over the last two weeks, and an .861 OPS at the moment. They are also the toughest team against left handers for the season, and face D-backs’ rookie lefty Tommy Henry on Friday. Henry is just three games into his career, with one very good start and two of the fair to good variety. He gave up 3 runs in 5+ innings in Colorado in his last start. Henry is not without talent but faces a tough opponent in the Cards.

The Cardinals start Mikolas (9-9,3.44) on Friday. Mikolas was embarrassed by Colorado, allowing 10 runs over 2.2 innings, but bounced back with an 8 inning 2 run effort in his last start. He has had a couple of very poor starts and they are usually on the road. His road ERA is 2 runs higher than at home.

The Cardinals are below .500 on the road, and just 8-6 as a road favorite. They have split their games with Arizona this year. The Diamondbacks come off an impressive 4 -3 road trip vs. the Giants and Rockies, and are above .500 at home. They have had very good relief pitching of late; better than the Cardinals, and are getting better than average hitting as well. Henry looked very sharp in his last two starts, and Mikolas’ potential road struggles are a concern. I am looking for the Diamondbacks to surprise the Cardinals, and to win or to stay close on Friday. Take Arizona on the run line at + 1 ½.  9*

The Nationals, now 4-6 were something of a surprise winner vs Darvish and the Padres last night, but odds are it won’t happen twice in a row. The Padres usually win when Snell is pitching these days. Snell has found his form and is finally giving the Padres what they are paying him for. The lefty is 5-1, 2.11 in his last 7 starts, and shut out the Nationals over 6 innings with 10 strikeouts in his last start.

He faces right-hander Espino for the Nationals. He was roughed up by the Padres in his last outing. 2 of 3 August starts have been poor, resulting in an ERA of over six for the month. Most starts are of 5 innings or less lately.

The Nationals really struggle vs left-handed pitching over both the long and short term. They are poor on the road, and just 5 and 12 in August. The Padres are definitely under achieving of late, but are better on offense than Washington, especially vs right-handers. Both bullpens have been effective lately, but the Padres’ has been lightly used and are throwing bb’s, with an ERA of just 0.63 in their last five games. The highly- favored Padres will bounce back today. Take them on the run line at -1 ½.

Generally, when Arizona and San Fransisco meet, you don’t see much in the way of offense. Another under is likely, with two fine starters, both off a pair of excellent appearances, meet up. Gallen, 4-0 2.94 in his last 7 starts, faced the Giants twice in July, allowing just 3 runs over 11+ innings. Webb, off an 8 inning shutout vs the Pirates, also shut out the D-backs at home in July. Both pitchers will likely pitch deep into the game. Gallen pitches well on the road, and especially well in day games.  Webb is particularly sharp at home.

The Diamondbacks’ batting has fallen off lately, and the Giants, while hitting well, have had little success against Gallen and, if needed, the Arizona bullpen. Look for another of their meetings to go under today.

The Rockies have lost 4 straight, including 2 against the home team Cardinals. Colorado took 2 of 3 in their recent home series vs St. Louis, so look for a little extra motivation from the Cards at home. Colorado’s offense has dropped lately, managing just .159 against right handers in their last five games. The Rockies’ are, of course, a much tamer beast in batting when away from Coors Field, just 26th in the league on the road.

Right hander Senzatela starts for the Rockies. He has been better but not great in August with 8 runs over 19 innings. He is not a strikeout pitcher, and opposing batters, including the Cardinals have hit him hard this season, although that average has dropped to .275 this month. Senzatela has been considerably worse on the road. Of note, the Cards’ Goldsmith has owned Senzatela when they’ve met in the past.

The 7-3 Cardinals start their ageless veteran, right hander Adam Wainwright. Usually very consistent, Wainwright was roughed up badly by the Yankees two starts ago, then pitched a 1 run, complete game in his last appearance. Overall this year he has been as usual, just fine. He is generally more effective at home.

The Cardinals are hitting very well at the moment, and are very good as a home favorite. The Rockies are just 6-19 as a road underdog. The Cards will likely give Senzatela a tougher time than his last opponents. The Cardinals have the much superior pen as well. Take the wildcard-bound Cardinals to win at home on Thursday. The odds are very much in their favor, but they should be good for the extra runs.

Now just 4-6 L10 games, I think San Diego avoids getting swept here. Unlike the first two games of the series, the pitching matchup is not in Miami’s favor today. 

While new addition Josh Bell has failed to produce thus far for the Padres, I see the team putting a decent number on the board in this matchup. After a strong start to the year for the Marlins, Pablo Lopez has really struggled. He has a 4.99 ERA in his last 13 starts and since the All-Star Break, it’s a 6.39 ERA in five starts. 

Lopez did have a strong outing against San Diego the last time he faced them. But that was back in May when he tossed eight shutout frames.

Miami is also 4-6 over its last 10 games and this marks the first time since the All-Star Break that they have won back to back games. They have been in a major slump at the plate as the last game where they scored more than four runs took place on 7/28. The Marlins only had six hits yesterday, four fewer than the Padres.

Mike Clevinger should get the job done for the road team today. The Padres are 9-5 in Clevinger’s 14 starts, which includes 6-2 on the road where his WHIP is a very solid 1.088.

The Phillies are now 7-3 L10 games after winning twice here in Cincinnati. They go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon with Ranger Suarez starting. Over Suarez’s previous five starts, the Phillies have gone 5-0. Suarez has given up just seven runs in that stretch and three of those were unearned.

The Reds, who have been out of contention all year, are 3-7 L10 games and have lost seven of the last eight. They turn to Nick Lodolo Wednesday in hopes of avoiding the sweep. But Lodolo isn’t a good candidate to play “stopper” considering he has a 4.72 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. In his last two starts, Lodolo has not made it out of the fifth inning. 

The Phillies have been a hot team for quite some time, winning two-thirds of their games since June 1st (44-22). Even without Bryce Harper, they’ve been hitting well. The lineup pounded out 18 hits in yesterday’s ballgame. At the same time, the pitching staff has allowed more than four runs only one time in the previous nine games.

Yesterday was the eighth time in the last nine games where the Reds scored four runs or less. Expect the Phillies to finish off the sweep. 9* 

The 6-4 Diamondbacks lost last night but have shown well lately. Their offense is on an upward track, just inching into the top ten over the last two weeks. They have hit well vs right-handers lately. They haven’t had much success in SF, but tonight could be the night. Merrill Kelley starts for Arizona. He struggled (for him) in his last start, allowing 3 runs in 5 innings, but is usually much better that that. He has faced the Giants three times lately, limiting them to 4 runs over 21+ innings. Kelley has been exceptional on the road this season.

The Giants have won 4 straight at home, but that includes 3 close games vs the lowly Pirates. They have been hitting well lately, but not against Kelley. Junis the “sometimes starter” pitches for the Giants. He has had some good outings this year, but most are short, and the last few were poor. He held the D-backs to a single run over 4 innings the last time he faced them. Opposing batters have put a charge into the ball against him in August.

I am on the underdog D-backs today. Kelley is the better starter and will pitch deeper into the game. The D-backs are getting fine relief pitching at the moment, better than the Giants. Look for Arizona to steal this one on the road.

At 6-4, the Cubs are showing improvement, although they did lose a close game to the home team Nationals on Monday. They are hitting well of late especially vs left-handers. The Cubs face a very unsuccessful lefty in Patrick Corbin on Tuesday. Corbin, now 4-14, hasn’t had a quality start in a month at least and his ERA has sky rocketed lately. While he usually pitches for length if nothing else, he has been ousted early in his last three starts. Unfortunately the Nationals’ relievers are also poor, with an ERA of 5.00 in their last 5 games, and much worse over the longer term.

The Cubs have been getting decent pitching from all corners. Left-hander Justin Steele is 2-2, 1.95 in his last 7 starts and held the Nationals to 2 runs over 6 innings just last week. He has 16 strikeouts in his last 10+ innings pitched.

The Nat’s, now 3-7, are very poor as a home underdog, and 11-27 vs left handed pitching. This game is the Cubs’ for the taking, and a fine opportunity to pile up the runs early. Look for Steele and Chicago to take Game Two on the road. 9*!

To no one’s surprise, the A’s are the bottom dwellers of the AL, and haven’t won in 8 games. They might have a chance in today’s game. A’s starter Kaprielian has been effective lately with an ERA of 2.35 in his last 7 starts. This will be his third time facing the Rangers in a month. He shut them out once and allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the second time.

He faces right hander Otto, 0-4, 4.66 in his last seven starts. He has been better in August, giving up just 4 runs over 2 starts. The A’s hit him fairly hard when they faced him with 4 runs scored in 4+ innings, a large haul for them.

The Rangers are hot off a winning series vs the Mariners, are hitting the ball well, and getting better than average relief lately. The A’s are managing just .196 vs. right handers. Both of Kaprielian’s last two starts have gone under. With Otto giving up just 4 runs in August, I expect another low scoring game today. Take the A’s and Rangers to go under the total.  9*.

Rumors of the Royals’ demise after the trade deadline may have been exaggerated as they’ve won 6 of 10. Off a win vs the Dodgers they now go on the road vs the Twins. Some of the Royals’ young pitchers are starting to find their form including Kris Bubic. The left hander is pitching much better than his season’s ERA lately, giving up 1,2, and 3 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts. His ERA is under 3.00 for his last 7 starts.

The Twins are underachieving at the moments and have won just 1 in 7 games. They are not getting much length or success from their starters. Joe Ryan the young phenom, has faltered lately, with 2 of his last 3 starts in the poor category. He has pitched close to a hundred innings to date, so fatigue may be an issue. His starts have been shorter and his ERA has climbed to over 5.00 in the last 7 games.

The Royals are outhitting the Twins at the moment both for average and power. Neither bullpen has been very effective. The Twins have also been particularly ineffective vs. left handed hitching. The Royals aren’t generally a very good team on the road, but are playing with no real expectations of them at the moment. The Twins are falling out of a wild card spot with their poor play lately. The Twins are a big favorite today, but I think the Royals will keep this game close. Take the Royals on the run line, at +1 ½.

The Braves are on the road vs the Marlins on Sunday. Atlanta has won 5 straight, 3 of them against the Marlins. Atlanta is a very good hitting team with a solid road record, but today’s starter is a question mark. Elder has just 1 start since April and it didn’t go well, allowing 3 runs over 2.1 innings against the Mets. He didn’t hang around long last time and that will likely be the case today, as the Braves pen is pitching very well at the moment. Elder may have better luck vs the Marlins because the Marlins just plain can’t hit. They are 2-8 and haven’t scored more than 3 runs in their last 10 games.

The Marlins start left handed pitcher Garrett today. He has been reasonably effective in his last 7 starts with a 3.35 ERA. He does not last longer than about 5 innings. He has had some very strong outings with high strikeouts, but doesn’t fare as well against top hitting teams. He gave up 4 runs over 4+ innings in his last start vs. the Phillies.

The Braves are a very good team, especially vs. left handed pitching. The Marlins are actually worse on the road, and their bullpen has not been sharp. Elder is not a good bet, even against the poor hitting Marlins, but the Braves will have their opportunities against Garrett and the Miami pen. Atlanta may be working from behind early, but I expect the Braves bats to wear down the Marlins today. Braves to win outright.

The Padres took a step back on Saturday, losing against the lowly Nationals. They’ll send out another veteran, lefty Blake Snell on Sunday. Snell seems trustworthy these days, pitching much better since the beginning of June, with just poor outing. He has given up very few runs with a five inning start average. Strike outs are up, and walks are down.

The Nationals are just 2-8, with trouble on the pitching side. Espino, a converted reliever had a solid start against the Cubs last time out, but has struggled against the better teams.

It is hard to know if the Padres are a “better” team these day, although they are hitting right handers very well lately. They are still underachieving in spite of big moves at the deadline. The Nationals are a team they need to beat to keep any wild card hopes alive. The Padres’ starter is better, their pen, other than last night, is arguably better and the offense did break out in the previous few games. Take the Padres to win on the road on Sunday. San Diego  -1 1/2.  9*.

With the worst offense in baseball for some time, the 2-8 Tigers are scoring an average of just 2 runs a game in those 9 losses. They at least have a fresh face in the starting rotation. Matt Manning, just two starts back from a very long stay on the IL has looked very solid since returning. He shut out the Rays over 7 innings in his last start, scattering just 4 hits.

At 2-4 in their last 6 games, off a lost series to the Royals, The White Sox are definitely underachieving. Outside of one breakout game, they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 8 games. The good news for the White Sox is that their starter Giolito, after struggling to a 5.00 ERA in July, has looked sharper in his last two starts, giving up 3 runs in 10 innings.

Both bullpens have failed to hold a lead of late. The Tigers’ pen has been the consistently positive part of the team, but have struggled recently. The White Sox’ relievers have been just average for the season, although they bounced back on Friday.

Don’t look for a lot of runs out of these two teams, especially considering the starters. Take the Under.  9*.

After being swept by the Dodgers, the Padre’s offense broke out against the Giants in their last 2 games, scoring 20 runs. The Padres have been very tough on right handers lately, and face another one today in the Nationals’ Sanchez. Washington’s pitching, starting and relief, is still in a shambles. Sanchez (0-5, 7.65) gives the Nat’s 4 or 5 innings a start, but opposing batters are hitting over .300 against him. While he hasn’t faced the Padres this year, Machado has owned Sanchez in past meetings.

The Padres start Yu Darvish (10-5, 3.28) Darvish was in tough against the Dodgers, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start. We are seeing a rejuvenated Darvish this year, with 3 or less runs allowed in 6 straight starts and some solid length as well.

With little support for Sanchez from the pen, the Padres have an opportunity to extend their string of high run totals. The 2-8 Nationals have not been hitting right handed pitching well at all lately, and on the road against Darvish, it is more a question of how much will they lose by. Take the Padres on the run line at -1 ½.

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Yankees in spite of weak hitting. Their pitching, including today’s starter and the bullpen, has been excellent, but those bats really need to wake up. They have had great success vs the Rangers in Texas lately. Prized rookie righty George Kirby has really found his form for the Mariners. He was solid vs the Rangers just a couple of starts ago and pitched very well in his last start against the Angels. Don’t look for great length; the Mariners will be watching his pitch count.

The Rangers are just 3-7 lately and while their offense has been OK, starting pitching has been an issue. It appears to be a bullpen day for the Rangers, and while the pen has been average at least, we have seen short outings from the starters lately, and an over-usage of the relievers.

 Kirby and the Mariners likely won’t likely give up many runs today, and it could be a very good opportunity for those M’s to score some runs. Look for continued success for Seattle and another win on the road.

The Guardians swept the Tigers and now face a critical road series against the Blue Jays. Right hander Quantrill starts for the Guardians. Other than a fine last start, he has been up and down in August with a 4.23 ERA. He has been considerably poorer on the road.

It has not been a banner year for the Jays’ right hander Berrios. He was hit hard by his old team last time out, but has shown improvement in his last 7 starts with a 3.86 ERA. He is very much better at home (6-0, 3.23) compared to away (2-4, 7.50)

The Jays have had a couple of days off after a pair of losses to the Orioles. They cannot afford any more poor play vs wild card opponents. The offense was flying just a couple of weeks ago. The Jays are very streaky but there are signs of improvement from both Guererro and Bichette. While the Guardians have the better bullpen, the 2 days rest can’t hurt the rather short-staffed Blue Jays’ pen.

This should be a close match-up, but Berrioz’ home success and Quantrill’s road woes could decide it. I am on the Jays on Friday.

The Diamondbacks have won 5 of 7 including 2 at home to the Pirates. They are good as a home favorite and have been hitting better than average, just sneaking in the top 10 over the last week. They have been getting some long appearances from their starters, which helps a not always impressive bullpen. Merrill Kelly, Thursdays starter, is as hot as anyone at the moment with an ERA of 1.49 over his last 7 games, and great length in his appearances. He was effective against the Pirates the last time he faced them. The D-backs have wasted two very fine outings of his, and will likely be extra-motivated on Thursday.

The Pirates, after a surprise sweep of the Brewers are back to their usual at 1-4. They are not a very good road team and haven’t won in Arizona in 6 attempts. Brubaker starts for the Pirates. After a couple of quality starts, Brubaker dropped the ball in his last 2 appearances. He gives up too many hits; 20 over 8 plus innings. The Diamondbacks roughed him up to the tune of 5 runs and 3 home runs over 4 innings.

The Pirates are hitting weakly at the moment, flirting with a sub .600 OPS. All signs point to a D-backs victory. Arizona has had Brubaker's number. Kelly is due to be rewarded by the Pirates. Look for a third straight victory for the Diamondbacks .  Take Arizona on the run line at - 1 1/2. 9*.

The Marilins have a very fine young starter on the mound on Thursday, but haven’t scored enough runs in any of their latest games to support anyone. They are averaging a minuscule 1.6 runs per game L10. They’ve lost 2 straight to the high-flying Phillies, and have only won 2 of their last 10 games. There is no doubt that Cabrera is an up and comer for the Marlin’s pitching rotation, but after just returning from the IL he won’t pitch more than five or so innings.

The Phillies’ bats are red hot at the moment. They even got to Alcantara in the 8th inning on Wednesday, have a team OPS of over 1.0, and 16 home runs in the last week. Thursday’s starter Kyle Gibson has not been too shabby lately either, flirting with a no hitter into the 7th inning, and giving up just 3 runs over 14 innings in his last 2 starts. The Phillies are getting fine support from their relievers at the moment if Gibson runs into trouble.

The Phillies appear to be playoff bound, and have great momentum. Not so, the Marlins. I am wagering on the Phillies to win on Thursday.  10*.

The White Sox and Royals have split their first 2 games in KC. Both games went under the total. The Sox offense has been anemic of late. Other than an 8 run outburst, the Sox have scored just 9 other runs in their last 6 games. They have been successful in limiting runs, giving up 2 or less in 8 of 10 games. They haven’t given today’s starter Cueto much run support either. Cueto at 3-1. 2.63 L7 has been very solid lately, pitching late into ball games. He was lights out against the Royals in an earlier meeting.

He faces left hander Bubic (2-6, 5.27) who has been much better lately than his ERA would suggest. He has faced most of the AL East in his last 4 starts, hasn’t given up more than 3 runs, and has stretched out his starts into the 6th and 7th. The White Sox have struggled vs. left handed pitching.

The Royals haven’t been hitting well against right handers lately and weren’t successful vs Cueto the last time they faced him. They managed just 5 runs in total in their last 3 game series vs the Sox. The total is high, higher than necessary today. Take the Sox and Royals to go under.

The Nationals beat the Cubs on Tuesday, winning for the first time in 7 games. The five runs they agave up was also their lowest total against, in 7 games. Their pitching has been the worst in the league for 2 weeks running. They send out right hander Josiah Gray, who was terrific through June but has stumbled badly since, and seen his ERA soar. He allowed 6 runs in 4 innings in his last start with 4 HR.

The Cubs have been very successful at limiting runs lately but struggle to score more than a handful. They have managed to win 3 of 5 on the backs of their pitching, and have scored 11 runs in their two games vs. the Nats, an improvement of late. Left hander Justin Steele has been very sharp lately, with a 2.70 ERA in his last 7 games. He has given up just 1 run in his last 3 appearances but seldom lasts past the 5th inning. Tuesday notwithstanding, the Cubs bullpen has impressed.

Prior to the Nationals series, the Cubs have faced very stiff pitching, and we are seeing an uptick in their offense in their last two games. Gray’s issues seem serious rather than a one-off. Steele has been consistent and very good. Look for the Cubs to bounce back at home and beat up on the Nationals on Wednesday.  A win is very likely but I am not comfortable with them on the run line.

The Braves are 5-5 L10 games, but the big story is that for the first time all season they’ve lost three in a row. They had previously been 11-0 off two straight losses and 31-11 off a loss of any kind. This was before going down Sunday, 5-2 to the Mets.

It just wasn’t the Braves' weekend as they lost four of five to the first place Mets. This leaves them seven games back in the NL East, so time to start thinking about the Wild Card. Tuesday, the Braves roll into Boston to face a Red Sox team that is 4-6 L10 and has surprisingly struggled at Fenway Park.

Over the weekend, the Red Sox lost three of four games at Kansas City. They are also a game below .500 (for the year) at home. A last place finish in the AL East seems to be in the cards.

Charlie Morton is winless over his last four starts for Atlanta. But in two of those starts, he didn’t give up any runs. The same holds true for three of his last six starts and four of his last nine. Over their last seven games, Boston is batting .223 and averaging 3.6 runs.

Rich Hill has been a .500 (ish) pitcher for Boston, but is facing a lineup that’s 25-12 vs. lefties. Hill hasn’t been going very deep into games and in the last two starts, he’s given up seven runs in 7.6 innings. His last win came on June 26th. The Red Sox are 12-25 in their L37 games. 9*

The Blue Jays outhit the Orioles Monday, 12-9. But of course that does not win you the ballgame. Four of the Orioles' nine hits were homers and thus they finished ahead in runs scored, 7-4. It simply continues to be a remarkable ride for the team from Camden Yards. They are five games over .500, just a game out of Wild Card position and have won six of seven overall.

Baltimore clearly is no longer a pushover, the team that lost 108+ games in the last three non-COVID shortened seasons. But I don’t like today’s starting pitching matchup from their perspective.

Alek Manoah has a 2.45 ERA and 0.992 WHIP for Toronto. He’s 12-5 and the team is 13-8 in his 21 starts. Manoah tossed six scoreless innings of one-hit ball when he faced the Orioles back on June 13th. He is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four career starts against them.

 Toronto may be only 5-5 over its last 10 games. But they are still three games ahead of Baltimore, have the starting pitching edge and the higher scoring offense. They’re also 30-18 off a loss this season.

For Baltimore, Kyle Bradish has a 6.55 ERA and 1.651 WHIP. The numbers are even worse at home. Despite having made 12 starts, Bradish has just one win in 2022. He faced Manoah back on 6/13, gave up five runs in 4 ⅓ innings and the Orioles lost 11-1. 10* 

The Padres and the Giants, both swept away by the Dodgers in recent series, now face each other in San Diego. The Giants, a sub .500 team on the road will start left-hander Alex Wood on Monday. Wood was hit very hard by the Dodgers in his last start, but was lights out in July with a 1.65 ERA over five appearances. He lost to the Padres back in May.

Wood will face another veteran lefty in Blake Snell. With 5 quality starts in his last 6 appearances, Snell appears to have re-found his form. He has allowed just 2 runs over 12 innings in his last 2 starts, and has cut opposing batters’ average to .200, down from .289 in June.He had good success vs. the Giants when he last faced them.

The Giants hit a little better in their last 2 games vs. the A’s, but they are down in the depths as far as recent offense goes. Much is expected of the new, improved Padres, and while they didn’t show it vs. LA, their lineup definitely has potential. Monday’s starters have very similar records over their last 6 games, both very effective with a just one hiccup each. The Padres’ bullpen has been superior to the Giants’ in recent games. Past success vs. Wood, better recent offense and relief pitching and a home field advantage spells win for the Padres. 9*

The 3-7 Cubs’ offense is last in the league over the last 2 weeks. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs a game in their last 10 games but have faced top pitching lately. The are up against the Nationals today who are hitting well at the moment, but whose pitching is in a shambles lately. The Nationals have allowed some very large runs-against totals lately; 24 runs in their last 2 games and 9 against today’s starter Sanchez in his last outing.

Sanchez is just 4 starts away from a year on the IL, but has yet to impress in his return, with a very high ERA and short starts. The National’s bullpen has been overworked and underachieving lately.

The Cubs start right hander Keegan Thompson. At 8-5, 3.48, he has had a solid season, but lately his results have been mixed, alternating between very good (2 shut-outs) and only fair ( a pair of 5 inning 5 run efforts). He has been consistently better at home.

Today’s total is very low, too low considering the Nationals’ pitching staff. Look for that Cubs’ offense to wake up in this series. No doubt the Nationals will manage a few runs as well. Take today’s total to go over.

The Red Sox are just 5-5 and have lost 2 of 3 on the road vs the Royals. They are usually effective on the road, and have a good chance of evening up the series on Sunday. Kutter Crawford, a reliever recently turned starter, now has 6 starts under his belt. He has been effective, probably better than any other Sox pitcher lately, and is stretched out to 6 inning starts. He has given up just 1 run in each of his last 2 starts. The Royals have never faced Crawford.

Keller starts for the Royals. He has struggled to a 5.21 ERA in his last 7 starts. He was hit very hard in his last start against the White Sox, allowing 13 hits and 8 runs over 5.2 innings. The Red Sox have hit Keller very hard when they faced him previously.

The Sox aren’t hitting especially well at the moment, but still have the potential for a high total against Keller.. The Royals have lost some significant players at the trade deadline and this will start to show. Neither bullpen is special. I am wagering on the Crawford, the better starter, and the Red Sox to win on Sunday.

The young and surprising Orioles' bats are sizzling at the moment, best in the league over the last week.  Even after selling at the deadline, they are still a possibility for a wild card spot, and are not giving up.  They have a very good record at home, and after winning 5 straight, should not be underestimated.  Watkins starts for the Orioles.  He has a 2.65 ERA in his last 7 starts and has given up just 5 runs over 16 innings in his last three appearances.  The Orioles are still getting very fine bullpen support.

The Pirates had Milwaukee's number but have struggled otherwise.  The offense has been an issue all season.  After losing the first two games to the Orioles, Wilson (1-6, 6.20) is an unlikely candidate to right the ship today.  He won't pitch for length and has had hard contact from batters all season.  The Pirates are not strong on the road, and have struggled against right handers lately.  With the superior offense, great momentum and a better starting pitcher today, I am wagering on the Orioles, a heavy favorite, to win today.  Take them on the run line; this team can hit. 9 stars.

While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent, the new, improved Paderes are hitting the ball hard at the moment, the pitching has also been excellent.  The Padres' starter Clevinger's last three starts have been spot on.  He has shown great control while giving up just 4 runs over his last 20 innings pitched.  He matches up against lefty Andrew Heaney who has been on the IL for much of the year, but when he has pitched, he has been exceptional with an ERA of 0.77 for the season.  His starts are short as he builds up his arm strength, but with a bullpen like the Dodgers' (2.27 ERA L15 games), it is hardly an obstacle.

In spite of all the big bats on these two teams, the Padres and Dodgers have a history of frequent low scoring games.  Saturday's total is generous.  Both starters have been excellent and the relief pitching on both sides has been light-out of late.  Take Saturday's total to go under. 9*.

The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp.

The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average.

Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA.

Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday.

The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over.

After a sweep at the hands of the Orioles, The Rangers won a tight game at home vs the White Sox on Thursday. Their bats have just been average of late, and they lost some key pieces on offense at the trade deadline. They’ll have a tough time scoring even three runs on Friday when they face the Sox’ Dylan Cease. Winner of Pitcher of the Month twice running, Cease continued his mastery of just about everyone. He hasn’t allowed more than a single run in 12 starts,. The Sox bullpen has been very good lately, and will be chomping at the bit. After some long starts, they haven’t had much work, but also haven’t given up a run in their last 5 games.

Cease faces the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. After a very poor June, he has steadied into a consistent pattern of allowing 3 or 4 runs over five or so innings. A combination of too many walks and hits leaves Otto consistently just out of the win column. While you wouldn’t have know it on Thursday, the Rangers pen has been struggling with an ERA of 6.23 over their last 5 games.

The White Sox are hitting well for average and power, especially vs. right-handers. Cease shows no sign of cooling off. Chicago has a very good past record vs. the Rangers. I am on the Sox on Friday and so are the odds-makers. Take the White Sox to win on the run line at -1 ½.

The Braves swept their last two series but now face a hot Mets team on the road. Atlanta isn’t quite as strong away from home, and they are being significantly out-hit by the Mets at the moment . Thursday’s starters squared off in May with Carrasco and the Mets winning 3-0. After a rough June, Carrasco was light-out in July with an ERA of 0.90. He gives up more hits than might be expected but is stingy with runs. He has been especially effective at home this year.

Atlanta’s Wright as also been very effective this season, with an ERA of 2.93 in his last 7 starts. The Mets have had some success against him in the past and he does give up more than his share of homeruns.

The Mets offense is quite something at the moment. They are a very good home team and while both starters are very effective, the edge goes to Carrasco in July. I am wagering on the Mets with the home advantage on Thursday. Take New York to win outright.